Rebecca Hoffman

Page 1

San Francisco Real Estate

July 2021 Report

2012 Photo by Jean-Francois Renaud, Creative Commons License


San Francisco Median House Price Changes

2021 YTD reflects sales through 6/30/21, reported to MLS by 7/3/21

Year-over-Year Changes, since 2000 Year-over-Year Change in Annual Median House Sales Price

$200,000

Partial year data for 2021 should be considered preliminary until fullyear data is available.

$175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100,000

$150,000

$50,000

$175,000

$85,000

$90,000

$165,942

$153,281

$155,869

$75,511

$4,051

$35,488

$12,014

$112,453

$98,553

$40,762

$43,921

$39,295

$25,000

$119,814

$50,000

$-

Pandemic hits ▼

$75,000

$0

-$75,000

-$100,000 -$125,000

No adjustments made for inflation.

$(49,458)

2008 financial markets crash ►

$(103,109)

-$50,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD

$(70,631)

-$25,000

This analysis reflects approximate year-to-year median dollar price changes for houses. On a percentage basis, the 2021 YTD change was 9%, far below the 29% increase in 2000 (dotcom peak). The condo median sales price was basically flat from 2020 to 2021 YTD.

Data through 2020 per the California Associations of Realtors for existing single family dwellings; 2021 an estimate using NorCal Regional MLS data. Data deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Changes in median sales prices are not perfect reflections of fair market value.


San Francisco Market Snapshot Statistics by Property Type, Q2 2021* Houses

Condos**

TICs

Co-ops

2-Unit Buildings

Sales Volume*

875 sales

1194 sales

141 sales

29 sales

125 sales

Median Sales Price*

$1,888,000

$1,235,000

$1,075,000

$1,725,000

$1,910,000

Median Square Footage*

1878 sq.ft.

1140 sq.ft.

1145 sq.ft.

1425 sq.ft.

2500 sq.ft.

Median $/Sq.Ft. Value*

$1072/sq.ft.

$1110/sq.ft.

$977/sq.ft.

$1154/sq.ft.

$746/sq.ft.

Median Days on Market*

11 days

19 days

40 days

57 days

33 days

% of Sales into Contract in 30 Days*

83% of sales

61% of sales

33% of sales

20% of sales

50% of sales

Active Listings

296 active listings

660 active listings

71 active listings

22 active listings

98 active listings

on 7/4/21***

* Sales reported to NorCal Regional MLS. Median values and statistics fluctuate for a variety of reasons. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Sq.ft. & $/sq.ft. figures calculated on sales which report square footage. Low sales volumes, such as seen in the co-op market make statistics less reliable. 2-4 unit buildings refer to residential multi-family properties. Late reported sales may alter these figures. Numbers are approximate. ** Condo statistics do not include new-project condo listings or sales unreported to MLS. *** Active listings posted to NorCal Regional MLS as of 6/21/21, include listings categorized as “Coming soon.”


San Francisco House Price Appreciation Median House Sales Prices, 2012 – Present, by Quarter

As reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics

$1,900,000

Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales.

$1,800,000 $1,700,000 $1,600,000 $1,500,000

Seasonal fluctuations are common, and it’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in spring (Q2). Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.

$1,400,000 $1,300,000

Pandemic hits

$1,200,000 $1,100,000 $1,000,000 $900,000

$1,888,000

$1,650,000

$1,600,000

$1,625,000

$1,660,000

$1,550,000

$1,575,000

$1,580,000

$1,697,500

$1,545,000

$1,500,000

$1,550,000

$1,620,000

$1,610,000

$1,500,000

$1,362,500

$1,440,000

$1,300,000

$1,350,000

$1,280,000

$1,350,000

$1,308,500

$1,245,000

$1,225,000

$1,325,000

$1,112,500

$1,121,000

$1,036,500

$1,100,000

$968,000

$935,000

$900,000

$975,000

$809,000

$829,400

$750,000

$770,000

$666,000

$800,000 $700,000 $600,000

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. All numbers are approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change with late reported sales.

Q2 2021

Q1 2021

Q4 2020

Q3 2020

Q2 2020

Q1 2020

Q4 2019

Q3 2019

Q2 2019

Q1 2019

Q4 2018

Q3 2018

Q2 2018

Q1 2018

Q4 2017

Q3 2017

Q2 2017

Q1 2017

Q4 2016

Q3 2016

Q2 2016

Q1 2016

Q4 2015

Q3 2015

Q2 2015

Q1 2015

Q4 2014

Q3 2014

Q2 2014

Q1 2014

Q4 2013

Q3 2013

Q2 2013

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q3 2012

Q2 2012

Q1 2012

$500,000


Many SF neighborhoods had too few sales for reliable analysis.

San Francisco, Spring 2021 House Sales* A Sampling of San Francisco’s 70+ Neighborhoods

Number of HOUSE Sales

Median HOUSE Sales Price

Median $ per Square Foot

Median House Size

Pacific & Presidio Heights

35

$6,750,000

$1600/sq.ft.

4350 sq.ft.

St. Francis Wood

11

$4,200,000

$1224/sq.ft.

3627 sq.ft.

Marina & Cow Hollow

29

$3,775,000

$1417/sq.ft.

2600 sq.ft.

Cole Valley, Ashbury Hghts, BV Park

15

$3,500,000

$1183/sq.ft.

2610 sq.ft.

Lake Street, Jordan Park, Sea Cliff

12

$3,400,000

$1253/sq.ft.

2846 sq.ft.

Noe & Eureka Valleys

98

$3,000,000

$1335/sq.ft.

2375 sq.ft.

Glen Park

30

$2,252,500

$1379/sq.ft.

1525 sq.ft.

Richmond District & Lone Mtn.

48

$2,225,000

$1104/sq.ft.

2200 sq.ft.

Inner Sunset, Golden Gate Heights

24

$2,090,000

$1094/sq.ft.

1915 sq.ft.

Miraloma Park & Midtown Terrace

38

$1,810,000

$1117/sq.ft.

1665 sq.ft.

Potrero Hill

35

$1,800,000

$1038/sq.ft.

1725 sq.ft.

Lakeside & Lake Shore

13

$1,700,000

$972/sq.ft.

1865 sq.ft.

Central Sunset & Parkside

69

$1,700,000

$1044/sq.ft.

1650 sq.ft.

Bernal Heights

67

$1,680,000

$1060/sq.ft.

1445 sq.ft.

Outer Sunset & Parkside

61

$1,600,000

$1173/sq.ft.

1320 sq.ft.

Sunnyside

30

$1,500,000

$975/sq.ft.

1600 sq.ft.

Portola

19

$1,300,000

$886/sq.ft.

1475 sq.ft.

Excelsior

30

$1,285,000

$839/sq.ft.

1500 sq.ft.

Oceanview

11

$1,150,000

$942/sq.ft.

1200 sq.ft.

Bayview & Visitacion Valley

40

$1,125,000

$719/sq.ft.

1400 sq.ft.

* Sales reported to NorCal Regional MLS, March–mid-June 2021. Median values fluctuate for a variety of reasons. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Sq.ft. & $/sq.ft. figures calculated on sales which report square footage. Late reported sales may alter these figures. All numbers approximate.


San Francisco Condo Price Appreciation Median Condo Sales Prices, 2012 – Present, by Quarter

As reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks

$1,250,000

Seasonal fluctuations are common. Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.

$1,200,000 $1,150,000 $1,100,000 $1,050,000 $1,000,000 $950,000

Pandemic hits

$900,000 $850,000 $800,000 $750,000

$1,235,000

$1,175,000

$1,150,000

$1,225,000

$1,150,000

$1,220,000

$1,218,000

$1,236,000

$1,235,000

$1,160,000

$1,200,000

$1,150,000

$1,206,000

$1,120,000

$1,178,000

$1,175,000

$1,120,000

$1,138,000

$1,075,000

$1,055,000

$1,130,000

$1,099,000

$1,105,000

$1,047,500

$1,125,000

$1,079,500

$995,000

$950,000

$949,500

$950,000

$830,000

$840,000

$850,000

$805,000

$775,000

$750,000

$724,000

$646,000

$700,000 $650,000 $600,000

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. All numbers are approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change with late reported activity.

Q2 2021

Q1 2021

Q4 2020

Q3 2020

Q2 2020

Q1 2020

Q4 2019

Q3 2019

Q2 2019

Q1 2019

Q4 2018

Q3 2018

Q2 2018

Q1 2018

Q4 2017

Q3 2017

Q2 2017

Q1 2017

Q4 2016

Q3 2016

Q2 2016

Q1 2016

Q4 2015

Q3 2015

Q2 2015

Q1 2015

Q4 2014

Q3 2014

Q2 2014

Q1 2014

Q4 2013

Q3 2013

Q2 2013

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q3 2012

Q2 2012

Q1 2012

$550,000


San Francisco, Spring 2021, 2-Bedroom/2-Bath Condo Sales* A Sampling of San Francisco’s Neighborhoods

# of 2BR/2BA CONDO Sales

Median 2 BR/2 BA Condo Sales Price

Median $ per Square Foot

Median 2/2 Condo Size

Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina (D7) Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys; Glen Park; Ashbury-Corona Hghts (D5) Richmond District, Lake Street, Jordan Park/Laurel Heights (D1) South Beach

50

$1,600,000

$1250/sq.ft.

1375 sq.ft.

37

$1,545,000

$1240/sq.ft.

1305 sq.ft.

18

$1,535,000

$1114/sq.ft.

1465 sq.ft.

69

$1,500,000

$1163/sq.ft.

1317 sq.ft.

Mission Bay

33

$1,340,000

$1159/sq.ft.

1230 sq.ft.

Inner Mission

26

$1,312,500

$1202/sq.ft.

1144 sq.ft.

Russian, Nob, Telegraph Hills, North Beach, Financial District Lower Pacific Hts, Hayes Valley, Alamo Square, NoPa Potrero Hill

39

$1,310,000

$1179/sq.ft.

1105 sq.ft.

38

$1,300,000

$1212/sq.ft.

1127 sq.ft.

13

$1,230,000

$1143/sq.ft.

1075 sq.ft.

Van Ness/Civic Center

15

$1,150,000

$1022/sq.ft.

1129 sq.ft.

South of Market (SoMa)

19

$1,115,000

$865/sq.ft.

1312 sq.ft.

Bayview/Hunter’s Point/ Candlestick Point (D10)

18

$735,000

$694/sq.ft.

1065 sq.ft.

All things being equal, a smaller unit will typically sell for a higher dollar per square foot value. Units on higher floors usually sell for higher, often much higher, values. * Sales reported to NorCal Regional MLS, March – mid-June 2021: not all sales are reported. Many SF neighborhoods had too few sales for reliable analysis. Realtor districts (D1, D5, D7, etc.) often include other neighborhoods adjacent to those listed. Median values often fluctuate due to a variety of factors. Late reported sales may alter these figures. Not all sales report square footage. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.


San Francisco Home Sales 6 Months Sales by Price Segment*

June 2021 update

$5,000,000+▼ 2% Under $500,000 $3,000,000 - $4,999,999

6%

3%

24% 13% $2,000,000 - $2,999,999

$500,000 - $999,999

Approximately 3885 MLS sales occurred in the six months through mid-June 2021. 54% of MLS sales were condos, 38% were houses, 6% TICs, 1% co-ops, and 1% townhouses. Of homes selling for under $1 million, 88% were condos, co-ops and TICs.

$1,500,000 - $1,999,999

20%

79% of sales of $3 million+ were houses. $1,000,000 - $1,499,999

1% of homes sold for over $8 million. One half of 1% sold for over $10 million.

31%

* 6 months sales of houses, townhouses, condos, co-ops, TICs reported to NorCal Regional MLS through mid-June 2021. Does not include sales unreported to MLS, such as many new-project condo sales. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.


Excerpts from the report, “Status of the Re-Opening of the San Francisco Economy” issued on June 24, 2021 by the Office of the Controller & the Office of Economic Analysis of the City & County of San Francisco; Lead authors Ted Egan, Ph.D., Chief Economist & Asim Khan, Ph.D., Senior Economist

 More than 45% of small businesses in SF remain closed. (Source: Womply, Opportunity Insights)  The five-county San Francisco metro area continues to lag comparable metro areas in office attendance, with a weekly office attendance rate below 20%. (Source: Kastle Systems)  As of Q1 2021, the commercial office vacancy rate remains very high at over 16%. The prepandemic average was below 6%. (Source: Jones Lang LaSalle)  At about 35%, the hotel occupancy rate, though recovering, remains well below the pre-pandemic average, which was close to 80%. (Source: STR)  Employment in the San Francisco Metro Division is recovering slowly. Total employment is still down 10% from its pre-pandemic level. The unemployment rate has declined from over 12% at the start of the pandemic, to 5.1% in May of this year. The pre-pandemic rate was just over 2%. (Source: CA Employment Development Department)  Evening freeway speeds in downtown have dropped, indicating the return of traffic congestion. However, BART ridership to downtown San Francisco stations was 12% of normal in May. (Sources: San Francisco County Transportation Authority, BART)  Travel at SF International Airport, though recovering, is still almost 70% down from 2019. (Source: San Francisco International Airport)  There are clear signs of recovery in apartment rents in San Francisco. However, average asking rents remain approximately 19% below pre-pandemic rates. (Source: ApartmentList)  The number of building permits for new housing are well below 2019 levels. (Source: HUD) The full report can be downloaded @ https://openbook.sfgov.org/webreports/details3.aspx?id=2964 These excerpts were compiled and edited in good faith, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Readers are encouraged to review the complete report, which also includes other statistics and insights.


New Listings Coming on Market San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Sept. 2020

1000

Sept. 2019

For houses and condos

900

Spring 2021

800 700

Spring 2019

600

Aug. fires

Feb. 2020

500 400

MidSummer

300 200

Pandemic Hits

December

100

December

Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

Jun-21

May-21

Apr-21

Mar-21

Feb-21

Jan-21

Dec-20

Nov-20

Oct-20

Sep-20

Aug-20

Jul-20

Jun-20

May-20

Apr-20

Mar-20

Feb-20

Jan-20

Dec-19

Nov-19

Oct-19

Sep-19

Aug-19

Jul-19

Jun-19

May-19

Apr-19

Mar-19

Feb-19

Jan-19

Dec-18

0


Active Listings on Market San Francisco Real Estate Market Dynamics

For houses and condos

Oct. 2020

This is a snapshot measure of how many active listings can be expected on any given day of the specified month. This number is affected by 2 major dynamics: 1) how many new listings come on market, and 2) how quickly buyers purchase them. This metric is typically affected by seasonal factors.

1,800 1,600 1,400

Spring 2018

1,200

October 2019

Spring 2019

Spring 2021

Pandemic hits

October 2018

1,000 800 600 400 200

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21

0

Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.


San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality Houses, condos, co-ops and TICs as listed in NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks.

Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract) by Month

March-May 2021

The June number of listings going into contract was down about 15% from the March-May average. It is not unusual for market activity to begin to slow in June, typically continuing to cool through August before picking up in early autumn.

800

Oct. 2020

700

October 2018

Spring 2018

Spring 2019

October 2019

600

500

Summer

400

Summer 300

January 200

January

Does not include many new-project condo listings and sales not reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Last month estimated based on available data: Late reported activity may change this number.

Jun-21

May-21

Apr-21

Feb-21 Mar-21

Jan-21

Dec-20

Nov-20

Oct-20

Sep-20

Aug-20

Jul-20

Jun-20

May-20

Apr-20

Feb-20

Jan-20

Dec-19

Nov-19

Oct-19

Sep-19

Aug-19

Jul-19

Jun-19

May-19

Apr-19

Feb-19 Mar-19

Jan-19

Dec-18

Nov-18

Oct-18

Sep-18

Aug-18

Jul-18

Jun-18

May-18

Apr-18

Feb-18 Mar-18

Jan-18

100

Mar-20

Pandemic hits


Unit HOUSE Sales by Month since 2018 San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality House Sales

Condo, Co-op, TIC Sales

Spring 2021

Closed sales are a lagging indicator: Sales closing in one month generally reflect accepted offers in the previous month. Spring 2021 sales volume ran well above seasonal norms. Condo sales hit an all-time high.

450 400

May 2019

350

Sales reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks

Condo

Dec. 2020

Oct. 2019

300

March 2020

250

House 200 150

Late Summer

Jan.-Feb 2021

100

January

Pandemic hits

50 January

Does not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS.

Activity reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Last month numbers estimated based on available data.

Jun-21

May-21

Apr-21

Mar-21

Feb-21

Jan-21

Dec-20

Nov-20

Oct-20

Sep-20

Aug-20

Jul-20

Jun-20

May-20

Apr-20

Mar-20

Feb-20

Jan-20

Dec-19

Nov-19

Oct-19

Sep-19

Aug-19

Jul-19

Jun-19

May-19

Apr-19

Mar-19

Feb-19

Jan-19

0


Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers by Quarter San Francisco Market Dynamics since 2016 The higher the percentage of listings accepting offers (going into contract), the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings for sale.

60%

55%

50%

45%

Pandemic hits

40%

35%

53%

44%

53%

52%

58%

49%

58%

53%

56%

44%

48%

48%

55%

41%

48%

40%

29%

35%

43%

48%

60%

Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q3 2017

Q4 2017

Q1 2018

Q2 2018

Q3 2018

Q4 2018

Q1 2019

Q2 2019

Q3 2019

Q4 2019

Q1 2020

Q2 2020

Q3 2020

Q4 2020

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

25%

Q2 2016

30%

Residential market activity reported to SFARMLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Late reported activity may alter the number of the last period.


San Francisco Market Supply & Demand Months Supply of Inventory (MSI), January 2018 – Present 11

Condo MSI

10

House MSI

9 8

Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) measures how long it would take to sell the existing inventory of listings for sale at the 12-month-average monthly rate of sale. Lower readings indicate stronger demand as compared to supply. Since autumn 2020, MSI numbers have plunged as demand has soared.

Inventory soared in the aftermath of shelter in place

7 6

5

Demand soared in late 2020, dropping MSI figures

4 3

Pandemic hits

2

MLS data per Infosparks. Last reading may change with late reported activity. Does not include new-project condo activity unreported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

Jun-21

May-21

Apr-21

Mar-21

Jan-21

Feb-21

Dec-20

Nov-20

Oct-20

Sep-20

Aug-20

Jul-20

Jun-20

May-20

Apr-20

Mar-20

Feb-20

Jan-20

Dec-19

Nov-19

Oct-19

Sep-19

Aug-19

Jul-19

Jun-19

May-19

Apr-19

Mar-19

Feb-19

Jan-19

Dec-18

Nov-18

Oct-18

Sep-18

Aug-18

Jul-18

Jun-18

May-18

Apr-18

Mar-18

Feb-18

Jan-18

1


San Francisco Luxury HOUSE Sales Closed Sales Priced $3 Million+, by Month June 2021 70

Luxury house sales hit a dramatic new high in Spring 2021. Luxury home sales have blasted to new peaks in every county in the Bay Area.

60

50

Oct. 2018

May 2019

May 2018

Fall 2020

40

30

January

January

January

January

Oct. 2019

20

10

Pandemic Hits

As reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Last month data estimated using available data.

Jun-21

Apr-21

May-21

Mar-21

Feb-21

Jan-21

Dec-20

Nov-20

Oct-20

Sep-20

Aug-20

Jul-20

Jun-20

May-20

Apr-20

Mar-20

Feb-20

Jan-20

Dec-19

Nov-19

Oct-19

Sep-19

Aug-19

Jul-19

Jun-19

May-19

Apr-19

Mar-19

Feb-19

Jan-19

Dec-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Sep-18

Aug-18

Jul-18

Jun-18

May-18

Apr-18

Mar-18

Feb-18

Jan-18

0


San Francisco Luxury House Market June 2021 update: 12 months sales reported to MLS

House Sales of $3,000,000+, by District, 12 Months Sales* $3m - $3.999m Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys/ Ashbury Heights, BV Park (D5)

$4m - $4.999m

$5m - $7.999m

84

Pacific & Presidio Heights/ Cow Hollow/ Marina (D7)

28

25

Sea Cliff/ Lake St./ Jordan Pk/ Richmond District (D1)

33

13

St. Francis Wood/ Forest Hill Monterey Heights (D4)

33

12

Lower Pacific Heights/ Hayes Valley/ Alamo Sq. (D6)

12

Potrero Hill/ Inner Mission Bernal Heights (D9)

19

Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills (D8)

6 2 21

Inner Sunset/ GG Heights/ Parkside (D2)

7 11

Lakeside/ Merced Manor (D3) 21

50

13

4 1

6 1

32

$8 million+ 28

31

6 1

1

There were 21 house sales reported to MLS during the 12-month period with sales prices of $10 million+: 18 of these were in Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and Marina (District 7). The highest priced house sale reported to MLS during the 12-month period was in Presidio Heights at $24,950,000. The second highest was in Sea Cliff at $24,000,000. .

Unit Sales in Price Segment

* 12 months sales reported to NorCal Regional MLS through mid-June 2021. Not all luxury home sales are reported to MLS. Neighborhood groupings correspond to SF Realtor districts, which often include adjacent neighborhoods not listed. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

3


San Francisco Luxury CONDO Sales* *Condos, co-ops & TICs as reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks

Closed Sales Priced $2 Million & Above, by Month

Spring 2021 60

Luxury condo, co-op and TIC sales hit a new high in Spring 2021. May 2018

50

April 2019

Oct. 2019 40

Oct. 2018

30

20

10

As reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Last month data estimated using available data.

Jun-21

Apr-21

May-21

Mar-21

Feb-21

Jan-21

Dec-20

Nov-20

Oct-20

Sep-20

Aug-20

Jul-20

0 Jun-20

May-20

Apr-20

Mar-20

Feb-20

Jan-20

Dec-19

Nov-19

Oct-19

Sep-19

Aug-19

Jul-19

Jun-19

May-19

Apr-19

Mar-19

Feb-19

Jan-19

Dec-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Sep-18

Aug-18

Jul-18

Jun-18

May-18

Apr-18

Mar-18

Feb-18

Jan-18

Pandemic Hits


San Francisco Luxury Condo, Co-op & TIC Market June 2021 update: 12 months sales reported to MLS

Sales Prices of $2 Million+, by District, 12 Months Sales* $2m - $2.999 million Pacific & Presidio Heights/ Cow Hollow/ Marina (D7)

102

So. Beach/ SoMa/ Mission Bay/ Mission/ Potrero Hill (D9) 47

Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys/ Ashbury & Corona Heights (D5) Lake Street/ Jordan Park/ Richmond Dist/Lone Mtn (D1)

22

Hayes Valley/ NoPa/ Alamo Sq./ Lower Pacific Heights (D6)

20

4

1

31

22

18

54

$5 million+ 35

70

Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills/ Financial District (D8)

Sunset (D2)

$3m - $4.999 million

4

5

6

373 of these MLS sales were of condos, 27 were TICs, and 23 were co-ops

The highest priced sale reported to MLS during the 12-month period was a co-op for $14,500,000 in Pacific Heights. As of mid-June 2021, the following active/coming-soon listings were posted to MLS: 85 at prices $2,000,000 to $2,999,999; 53 at $3,000,000 to $4,999,999; 28 at $5,000,000 to $9,999,999; and 4 at $10 million+. The highest priced MLS listing was a co-op in Pacific Heights for $25 million. (Does not include new-project condos not listed in MLS.)

Unit Sales by Price Segment * 12 months sales reported to NorCal Regional MLS through mid-June 2021 – many new luxury condo projects do not report all listings & sales. Neighborhood groupings correspond to SF Realtor districts, which include other neighborhoods. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

9


Sales Price to List Price Differences, Spring 2021 Sales* San Francisco Home Sales Accepting Offers within 30 Days 0%

South Beach -2% - 2% Pacific/Presidio Heights

2%

Mission Bay

2%

5%

Condos Houses Condos

Marina-Cow Hollow

6% Houses

Russian & Nob Hills

6% Condos

All SF Condos

7% Condos

Hayes Valley-NoPa

8% Condos

Noe-Eureka Valleys

8% Houses

Inner Mission

9% Condos

Potrero Hill

10% Houses ▼

All SF Houses

12%

Portola

12%

Bayview/Visit. Vly

14%

Richmond-Lake St.

15%

Bernal Heights

15%

Miraloma/Midtown Ter.

16%

St. Francis Wood

18%

Sunset/Parkside

24%

10%

15%

20%

Green bars reflect selected condo markets. Blue bars reflect selected house markets. Illustrating average % differences between sales and list prices on homes which sold relatively quickly – i.e. went into contract within 30 days of coming on market. 10% = an average sales price 10% above list price. Overbidding typically occurs when buyers compete to purchase new listings. Houses are generally seeing more overbidding than condos, but the condo market heated up rapidly in 2021

* Sales reported to NorCal Regional MLS, March – mid-June 2021: not all sales are reported. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

Strategic underpricing of new listings by agents and sellers can also be a factor in this statistic.


Percentage of Homes Selling Quickly, Spring 2021 Sales* San Francisco Home Sales Accepting Offers within 30 Days 40%

50%

Mission Bay

53% Condos

South Beach

54% Condos

Inner Mission

59% Condos

All SF Condos

61% Condos

Hayes Valley-NoPa

67% Condos

Potrero Hill

71% Houses

Russian & Nob Hills

75% Condos

Bernal Heights

70%

80%

77%

Bayview/Visit. Vly

77%

Noe-Eureka Valleys

78%

Marina-Cow Hollow

82%

All SF Houses

83%

Portola

84%

Miraloma/Midtown Ter.

86%

Richmond-Lake St. (D1)

92%

Sunset/Parkside (D2)

94%

90%

Green bars reflect selected condo markets. Blue bars reflect selected house markets.

76% Houses ▼

Pacific/Presidio Heights

St. Francis Wood

60%

Illustrating the percentage of home sales that went into contract within 30 days of coming on market. Higher percentages reflect higher demand. Many of these percentages are extremely high on a historical basis.

100%

* Sales reported to NorCal Regional MLS, March – mid-June 2021: not all sales are reported. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

100%


San Francisco Employment Trends Per California Employment

Number of Employed Residents since 2000

Development Dept. (EDD)

2019- May 2021

Employment Numbers by Month January 2000 to May 2021

575,000

According to CA EDD, San Francisco employment numbers dropped by approximately 92,000 (16%) in the immediate impact of the pandemic, but then recovered 37,500 jobs through May 2021. EDD estimates that the civilian labor force – the number of residents able to work, not the number employed – is currently down by about 40,000 (7%) since early 2020, which suggests some decline in population (probably predominantly relocated tenants).

550,000

525,000

500,000

Dotcom peak

May 2020 ------

475,000

2007 – 2008 peak

450,000

425,000

400,000

EDD data. Last month’s data is labeled “preliminary” by EDD. EDD often goes back to revise past data releases. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.

Jan-21

Jun-20

Nov-19

Apr-19

Sep-18

Feb-18

Jul-17

Dec-16

May-16

Oct-15

Mar-15

Aug-14

Jan-14

Jun-13

Nov-12

Apr-12

Sep-11

Feb-11

Jul-10

Dec-09

May-09

Oct-08

Mar-08

Aug-07

Jan-07

Jun-06

Nov-05

Apr-05

Sep-04

Feb-04

Jul-03

Dec-02

May-02

Oct-01

Mar-01

Aug-00

Jan-00

375,000


Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate. Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales. Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage. Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


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