San Francisco July 14, 2021 Sales Meeting Selected Angles on the Market Presented by Patrick Carlisle
San Francisco House Price Appreciation Median House Sales Prices, 2012 – Present, by Quarter
As reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics
$1,900,000
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales.
$1,800,000 $1,700,000 $1,600,000 $1,500,000
Seasonal fluctuations are common, and it’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in spring (Q2). Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.
$1,400,000 $1,300,000
Pandemic hits
$1,200,000 $1,100,000 $1,000,000 $900,000
$1,888,000
$1,650,000
$1,600,000
$1,625,000
$1,660,000
$1,550,000
$1,575,000
$1,580,000
$1,697,500
$1,545,000
$1,500,000
$1,550,000
$1,620,000
$1,610,000
$1,500,000
$1,362,500
$1,440,000
$1,300,000
$1,350,000
$1,280,000
$1,350,000
$1,308,500
$1,245,000
$1,225,000
$1,325,000
$1,112,500
$1,121,000
$1,036,500
$1,100,000
$968,000
$935,000
$900,000
$975,000
$809,000
$829,400
$750,000
$770,000
$666,000
$800,000 $700,000 $600,000
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. All numbers are approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change with late reported sales.
Q2 2021
Q1 2021
Q4 2020
Q3 2020
Q2 2020
Q1 2020
Q4 2019
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q1 2019
Q4 2018
Q3 2018
Q2 2018
Q1 2018
Q4 2017
Q3 2017
Q2 2017
Q1 2017
Q4 2016
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
$500,000
San Francisco Median House Price Changes
2021 YTD reflects sales through 6/30/21, reported to MLS by 7/3/21
Year-over-Year Changes, since 2000 Year-over-Year Change in Annual Median House Sales Price
$200,000
Partial year data for 2021 should be considered preliminary until fullyear data is available.
$175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100,000
$150,000
$50,000
$175,000
$85,000
$90,000
$165,942
$153,281
$155,869
$75,511
$4,051
$35,488
$12,014
$112,453
$98,553
$40,762
$43,921
$39,295
$25,000
$119,814
$50,000
$-
Pandemic hits ▼
$75,000
$0
-$75,000
-$100,000 -$125,000
No adjustments made for inflation.
$(49,458)
2008 financial markets crash ►
$(103,109)
-$50,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
$(70,631)
-$25,000
This analysis reflects approximate year-to-year median dollar price changes for houses. On a percentage basis, the 2021 YTD change was 9%, far below the 29% increase in 2000 (dotcom peak). The condo median sales price was basically flat from 2020 to 2021 YTD.
Data through 2020 per the California Associations of Realtors for existing single family dwellings; 2021 an estimate using NorCal Regional MLS data. Data deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Changes in median sales prices are not perfect reflections of fair market value.
Bay Area Median House Sales Prices: Percentage Appreciation 2019 (full year) to 2021 YTD (first half): Median Sales Price Change San Francisco
16%
Sonoma County
18%
Solano County
21%
Napa County
25%
San Mateo County
26%
Santa Clara County
28%
Marin County
29%
Alameda County
32%
Santa Cruz County
32%
Monterey County
36%
Contra Costa
39%
Median House Sales Price % Increases, Pre-Pandemic (2019) to Present (2021 YTD) Partial-year data should be considered preliminary until full-year data is available. Historically, median sales prices have often peaked for the calendar year in Q2. Median sales prices are affected by factors other than changes in fair market values.
Based on 2019 and 2021 YTD median house sales prices per CA Association of Realtors or NorCal Regional MLS. Data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
San Francisco Bay Area Real Estate Market Cycles Home Price Increases & Declines, by Percentage, 1984 – 2021* https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-san-francisco-home-price-nsa-index/#overview Updated through April 2021
Market Peaks & Bottoms Approximate Percentage Changes A simplified, smoothed-out graph*
Financial markets crash
Per CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Aggregate Index for Bay Area Houses Seasonally adjusted. Not adjusted for inflation.
2012 – 4/2021 + 143%
2002 – 2006/07 + 72%
* The years between market peaks and bottoms are not accurately represented, but entered as straight lines between high and low points to illustrate percentage changes over time. Shorter-term fluctuations are not reflected on this chart. All numbers are very approximate and subject to revision.
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
Junk bond boom
2008
Approximate % value changes based upon S&P CaseShiller Home-Price Index for 5-county metro area (aggregate sales index, seasonally adjusted). Different price segments were affected very differently in the scale of their subprime bubbles and resulting crashes.
Dotcom boom
1991 – 1994 - 11%
High-tech boom, then pandemic
Subprime bubble
2007
1984 – 1990 + 100%
Dotcom Pop/ 9-11 - 5%
2006
1989 SF earthquake
2007 – 2011 - 40%
2005
1995 – 2001 + 100%
Median Sales Price: San Francisco 2-Bedroom Condos 3-Month Rolling Data, per Infosparks
Pandemic hits ▲
In the following comparisons of June monthly data, 2019-2020-2021, the most useful comparison is between June 2019 and June 2021, as the pandemic significantly distorted the numbers in June 2020.
Infosparks, single month data
New Listings Month of June
Infosparks, single month data
Active Listings Month of June
New Listings Coming on Market by Month San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Sept. 2020
1000
Sept. 2019
For houses and condos
900
Spring 2021
800 700
Spring 2019
600
Aug. fires
Feb. 2020
500 400
MidSummer
300 200
Pandemic Hits
December
100
December
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Jun-21
May-21
Apr-21
Mar-21
Feb-21
Jan-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Jan-19
Dec-18
0
San Francisco New House & Condo Listings Coming on Market 12-Month Rolling Data – a Very Broad Overview
Infosparks, 12-month rolling data
12-month rolling data: Each data point reflects the total of 12 months of new listings. 1/12 of these numbers will equal an average month within each 12 month period. Using 12-month rolling data generally eliminates seasonal fluctuations from the trend line but will disguise and lag shorter term changes.
Infosparks, single month data
Listings into Contract Month of June
Infosparks, single month data
Closed Sales Month of June
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality Houses, condos, co-ops and TICs as listed in NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks.
Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract) by Month
March-May 2021
The June number of listings going into contract was down about 15% from the March-May average. It is not unusual for market activity to begin to slow in June, typically continuing to cool through August before picking up in early autumn.
800
Oct. 2020
700
October 2018
Spring 2018
Spring 2019
October 2019
600
500
Summer
400
Summer 300
January 200
January
Does not include many new-project condo listings and sales not reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Last month estimated based on available data: Late reported activity may change this number.
Jun-21
May-21
Apr-21
Feb-21 Mar-21
Jan-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19
Feb-19 Mar-19
Jan-19
Dec-18
Nov-18
Oct-18
Sep-18
Aug-18
Jul-18
Jun-18
May-18
Apr-18
Feb-18 Mar-18
Jan-18
100
Mar-20
Pandemic hits
Unit HOUSE Sales by Month since 2018 San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality House Sales
Condo, Co-op, TIC Sales
Spring 2021
Closed sales are a lagging indicator: Sales closing in one month generally reflect accepted offers in the previous month. Spring 2021 sales volume ran well above seasonal norms. Condo sales hit an all-time high.
450 400
May 2019
350
Sales reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks
Condo
Dec. 2020
Oct. 2019
300
March 2020
250
House 200 150
Late Summer
Jan.-Feb 2021
100
January
Pandemic hits
50 January
Does not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS.
Activity reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Last month numbers estimated based on available data.
Jun-21
May-21
Apr-21
Mar-21
Feb-21
Jan-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Jan-19
0
San Francisco Residential Sales since 2005 12-Month Rolling Data
Highest 12-Month Sales Volume since 2005 Infosparks, 12-month rolling data: Sales of houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, TICs
12-month rolling data: Each data point reflects the total of 12 months of new listings. 1/12 of these numbers will equal an average month within each 12 month period. Using 12-month rolling data generally eliminates seasonal fluctuations from the trend line but will disguise and lag shorter term changes.
San Francisco Luxury HOUSE Sales Closed Sales Priced $3 Million+, by Month June 2021 70
Luxury house sales hit a dramatic new high in Spring 2021. Luxury home sales have hit new peaks in every county in the Bay Area.
60
50
Oct. 2018
May 2019
May 2018
Fall 2020
40
30
January
January
January
January
Oct. 2019
20
10
Pandemic Hits
As reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Last month data estimated using available data.
Jun-21
Apr-21
May-21
Mar-21
Feb-21
Jan-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Jan-19
Dec-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Sep-18
Aug-18
Jul-18
Jun-18
May-18
Apr-18
Mar-18
Feb-18
Jan-18
0
San Francisco Luxury CONDO Sales* *Condos, co-ops & TICs as reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks
Closed Sales Priced $2 Million & Above, by Month
Spring 2021 60
Luxury condo, co-op and TIC sales hit a new high in Spring 2021. May 2018
50
April 2019
Oct. 2019 40
Oct. 2018
30
20
10
As reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Last month data estimated using available data.
Jun-21
Apr-21
May-21
Mar-21
Feb-21
Jan-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
0 Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Jan-19
Dec-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Sep-18
Aug-18
Jul-18
Jun-18
May-18
Apr-18
Mar-18
Feb-18
Jan-18
Pandemic Hits
San Francisco Home Sales - $5 Million+ Closed Sales, 3-Month Rolling Data, since 2016 June 2021 60
50
Spring 2019 IPOs Spring
40
Spring
30
Fall
January
January
January
January
Fall 2020 20
10
All residential property types, as reported to NorCal Regional MLS, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
May-21
Mar-21
Jan-21
Nov-20
0 Sep-20
Jul-20
May-20
Mar-20
Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
Jul-19
May-19
Mar-19
Jan-19
Nov-18
Sep-18
Jul-18
May-18
Mar-18
Jan-18
Nov-17
Sep-17
Jul-17
May-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Pandemic Hits
Infosparks, single month data
Months Supply of Inventory By Property Type Month of June
Infosparks, single month data
Months Supply of Inventory By Price Segment Month of June
Infosparks, 3-month rolling data
Median Days on Market By Property Type 3-Months through June
Infosparks, 3-month rolling data
Median Days on Market By Price Segment 3-Months through June
San Francisco Market Supply & Demand Months Supply of Inventory (MSI), January 2018 – Present 11
Condo MSI
10
House MSI
9 8
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) measures how long it would take to sell the existing inventory of listings for sale at the 12-month-average monthly rate of sale. Lower readings indicate stronger demand as compared to supply. Since autumn 2020, MSI numbers have plunged as demand has soared.
Inventory soared in the aftermath of shelter in place
7 6
5
Demand soared in late 2020, dropping MSI figures
4 3
Pandemic hits
2
MLS data per Infosparks. Last reading may change with late reported activity. Does not include new-project condo activity unreported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Different analytics programs sometimes define this statistic differently.
Jun-21
May-21
Apr-21
Mar-21
Jan-21
Feb-21
Dec-20
Nov-20
Oct-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Feb-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Nov-19
Oct-19
Sep-19
Aug-19
Jul-19
Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19
Mar-19
Feb-19
Jan-19
Dec-18
Nov-18
Oct-18
Sep-18
Aug-18
Jul-18
Jun-18
May-18
Apr-18
Mar-18
Feb-18
Jan-18
1
Infosparks, single month data
% of Sales over Final List Price Month of June
% of Original List Price Month of June
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers by Quarter San Francisco Market Dynamics since 2016 The higher the percentage of listings accepting offers (going into contract), the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings for sale.
60%
55%
50%
45%
Pandemic hits
40%
35%
53%
44%
53%
52%
58%
49%
58%
53%
56%
44%
48%
48%
55%
41%
48%
40%
29%
35%
43%
48%
60%
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
Q4 2018
Q1 2019
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
Q4 2019
Q1 2020
Q2 2020
Q3 2020
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
25%
Q2 2016
30%
Residential market activity reported to SFARMLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Late reported activity may alter the number of the last period.
Price Reductions on Active Listings San Francisco Real Estate Market Dynamics & Seasonality
For houses and condos
Oct. 2020
The number of price reductions usually climbs at the end of the spring selling season before the market (typically) slows down for summer, and surges at the end of the autumn selling season before the (usual) big mid-winter slowdown. (In 2020, sales volume peaked in December.)
500 450 400
The SF market softened in the first 5-6 months after the pandemic struck, but then heated back up.
350 300
October 2018
October 2019
250 200
Pandemic hits
October 2017
150 100 50
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
May-21
Mar-21
Jan-21
Nov-20
Sep-20
Jul-20
May-20
Mar-20
Jan-20
Nov-19
Sep-19
Jul-19
May-19
Mar-19
Jan-19
Nov-18
Sep-18
Jul-18
May-18
Mar-18
Jan-18
Nov-17
Sep-17
Jul-17
May-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
0
Excerpts from the report, “Status of the Re-Opening of the San Francisco Economy” issued on June 24, 2021 by the Office of the Controller & the Office of Economic Analysis of the City & County of San Francisco; Lead authors Ted Egan, Ph.D., Chief Economist & Asim Khan, Ph.D., Senior Economist
More than 45% of small businesses in SF remain closed.
The five-county San Francisco metro area continues to lag comparable metro areas in office attendance, with a weekly office attendance rate below 20%. As of Q1 2021, the commercial office vacancy rate remains very high at over 16%. The pre-pandemic average was below 6%. At about 35%, the hotel occupancy rate, though recovering, remains well below the pre-pandemic average, which was close to 80%. Travel at SF International Airport, though recovering, is still almost 70% down from 2019.
There are signs of recovery in apartment rents in San Francisco. However, average asking rents remain approximately 19% below pre-pandemic rates.
These excerpts were compiled and edited in good faith, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Readers are encouraged to review the complete report, which also includes other statistics and insights.
San Francisco Employment Trends Per California Employment
Number of Employed Residents since 2000
Development Dept. (EDD)
2019- May 2021
Employment Numbers by Month January 2000 to May 2021
575,000
According to CA EDD, San Francisco employment numbers dropped by approximately 92,000 (16%) in the immediate impact of the pandemic, but then recovered 37,500 jobs through May 2021. EDD estimates that the civilian labor force – the number of residents able to work, not the number employed – is currently down by about 40,000 (7%) since early 2020, which suggests some decline in population (probably predominantly relocated tenants).
550,000
525,000
500,000
Dotcom peak
May 2020 ------
475,000
2007 – 2008 peak
450,000
425,000
400,000
EDD data. Last month’s data is labeled “preliminary” by EDD. EDD often goes back to revise past data releases. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Jan-21
Jun-20
Nov-19
Apr-19
Sep-18
Feb-18
Jul-17
Dec-16
May-16
Oct-15
Mar-15
Aug-14
Jan-14
Jun-13
Nov-12
Apr-12
Sep-11
Feb-11
Jul-10
Dec-09
May-09
Oct-08
Mar-08
Aug-07
Jan-07
Jun-06
Nov-05
Apr-05
Sep-04
Feb-04
Jul-03
Dec-02
May-02
Oct-01
Mar-01
Aug-00
Jan-00
375,000
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate. Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales. Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage. Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.