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2020 Trends in Construction
2020 TRENDS IN CONSTRUCTION CONFERENCE
NOVEMBER 19
As a sign of the times, CFMA’s South Central Louisiana Chapter took their annual Trends in Construction Conference virtual this year and ABC of Louisiana was proud to serve again as an event sponsor. Each year through this conference, attendees get a firsthand look at seeing a mild decline in consumer confidence, obviously
the economic forecast for the year ahead.
ABC Pelican Member Jay Montalbano, a partner at Hannis T. Bourgeois, kicked off the annual conference by welcoming attendees and introducing keynote speaker, Dr. Elliot Eisenberg. Dr. Eisenberg’s research has been featured in Bloomberg Businessweek, Bureau of National Affairs, Forbes and Fortune, so you can imagine his presentation covered a broad swath of topics, industries to the virus and don’t tell us the entire story.”
For example, consumers have dipped into savings to purchases vehicles and renovate their homes.
“Consumer spending is still incomplete, and we are still and factors.
attributable to the virus,” explained Dr. Eisenberg.
As he began the presentation around the topic, “Understanding the Economic Forecast as it Relates to the Construction Industry,” Dr. Eisenberg was quick to point out “the economy is improving,” and that he was hopeful to “see some physical stimulus from Washington, D.C.”
Attendees then took a trip down memory lane with an Econ go, and we must keep in mind that our economy is still
101 lesson: the components of GDP and why we must pay attention to each as our economy recovers:
GDP=C[onsumption] + I[nvestment] + G[overnment Spending] + NX (exports-imports)
“Certain parts of the economy are performing remarkably well, not well, but remarkably well,” said Dr. Eisenberg. He explained that housing is performing the best out of all industries and that new home sales are “exploding.”
Dr. Eisenberg went on to highlight other booming industries, including vehicle and retail: “We’ve made tremendous progress from where we were in April. Housing has done a tremendous job but it’s not going to improve anymore and will level off now…Vehicle purchases have rebounded as much as it can...Retail sales have done terrifically well.”
As with most things in life, there is a catch to the industries currently booming: these data are all “contaminated from Speaking of the virus, Dr. Eisenberg said it is too soon to have the “wait for the virus” mindset. “We have a way to
coronavirus. These three items are a behavioral response suffering from a pandemic.”
2020 TRENDS IN CONSTRUCTION CONFERENCE CONTINUED Shifting gears to an industry that is not doing so well, Dr. Dr. Eisenberg posed the question: Has oil already Eisenberg explained that restaurant sales keep going up peaked? With an emphatic “We may be getting incredibly and down. “This decline is not good.” close to it.” Continuing with the presentation, our keynote speaker
While economic progress is being made, we are “by no means out of the woods” said Dr. Eisenberg. “Don’t confuse happiness with overall success. Firms are happy because they are spending money on new goods and investing in new equipment to garner more business. That is good but it’s not long-term investments.” What could be good for long-term investments, Dr. Eisenberg pointed the progress we have seen in oil. “The number we’ve gained in barrels of oil is going up.” “We’ve lost 10 million jobs,” said Dr. Eisenberg. “The
What could be good for long-term investments, Dr. Eisenberg pointed the progress we have seen in oil. “The said that COVID-19 has caused the budget deficit to explode because of COVID-related relief legislation.
“The dollar has weakened somewhat…GDP cannot grow fast!”
Similarly to the importance of the dollar, labor markets have been tight in the midst of the pandemic.
number we’ve gained in barrels of oil is going up.” vaccine tells us that the end-zone is not far away, but we are not there yet.”
2020 TRENDS IN CONSTRUCTION CONFERENCE CONTINUED
In his opinion, gyms, restaurants and bars should be closed and all schools should re-open so children can get back to normal education and women can return to the workforce.
The remainder of the presentation focused on construction.
“Private residential is doing well,” said Dr. Eisenberg. “The rest of construction is weakening, but this will not be the case forever… Per ABC, the book of business is weaker than it was in the past.”
Dr. Eisenberg concluded with the most positive news: this recession isn’t nearly as bad as the last.
“The recovery should be much quicker because this is a health care crisis, not an economic crisis. The key here is the overall health of the economy is improving, just slowly.”
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