Trendy ways to crunch the numbers

Polling can only ever be a snapshot of public opinion. It is made up of specific answers, to specific questions, from specific people, at a specific point in time. That is why the most revealing thing in a poll is not specific numbers in a particular data set, but the trend, which provides a greater indication of not only where public opinion is at a specific point, but also where it is moving to.

The public’s attitude to the future of the oil and gas industry is a case in point. In the latest True North/Survation poll, 61% of people thought the North Sea industry was a positive thing for the UK economy. That in itself is an impressive and useful figure, which reflects the importance the public place on continuing domestic oil and gas production to provide energy security in the here and now.

But it becomes even more significant when we look at the trend. Compared with the figures from earlier this year, 5% more people viewed the North Sea industry as a positive thing for the UK economy. Much of that change was due to people who were previously unsure whether it was positive or negative changing their mind to the former. Meanwhile, the number of people viewing the impact of the North Sea industry on the UK economy negatively fell by two points to just 9%.

The trend is therefore clear, and far more informative than the headline number alone. It reveals that not only does the North Sea energy sector have popular support but that that support is growing, particularly among people who were previously ambivalent.

This should provide comfort to the industry that perhaps the argument is beginning to be won around a more ‘reasoned debate’ on maintaining a domestic oil and gas baseline in our energy supply, throughout a managed transition towards net zero.

Indeed, there is further encouraging news in the True North/Survation poll. For instance, a total of 75% of people in Scotland believe the UK should meet its oil and gas needs from domestic production – an overwhelming majority – while just 11% disagree. All this should give succour to those who work in and support the North Sea oil and gas industry, which not only enjoys a substantial base of public support but, as trends suggest, one which is growing.

The trend is also important when we turn to the national political picture. Across the various Westminster and Holyrood voting intentions, the True North/ Survation poll suggests the SNP is still well ahead of its rivals, often by a considerable amount. Yet it is the trend, which suggests public support is continuing to move away from the SNP, that will trouble party strategists and the new First Minister.

There is, however, comfort for Humza Yousaf when it comes to the question of independence, which continues to sit stubbornly at 52% opposed, 48% supportive. SNP strategists will hope this is a base from which they can begin to rebuild their support. Only time will tell if that is possible, but the independence question is nevertheless a useful reminder that a trend does not always mean a change – sometimes the trend is very much for things to stay the same.

What impact, if any, do you think that energy companies operating in the North Sea have on the UK economy?

Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

If the Westminster Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in the your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for?

Scottish National Party (SNP)

Scottish Labour Party

Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party

Scottish Liberal Democrats

Another Party

In the next Scottish Parliament election you will be given two votes. One of those votes will be for a single person to represent your constituency in the Scottish Parliament. If the election were tomorrow, for which party would you be most likely to vote using this constituency vote?

Scottish National Party (SNP)

Scottish Labour Party

Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party

Scottish Liberal Democrats

Another Party