Dna issue 80

C M yk

Sunday, 14 - 20 June, 2015 I Issue 80 I Pages 16 I rs 25

OVERCOMING DEBT DEPENDENCY OPTIONS FOR PAKISTAN OPInIOn: Hassan Naqvi

Page 03

AFTER A YEAR TERRORISTS IN URBAN AREAS

WHO IS MORE EFFICIENT, THE TERRORISTS OR LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES?

COver StOrY: Aziz-ud-Din Ahmad

Page 04

‘SHARIFS HAVE LEARNT LITTLE FROM HISTORY’ EXTRAORDINARY SITUATIONS DEMAND EXTRAORDINARY DECISIONS FROM LEADERS IntervIew: Saeed Ghani

Cover story this week

ZARB-E-AZB MEETING ITS OBJECTIVE?

Page 10

Pages 04-06

TERRORISTS’ COMMAND AND CONTROL CENTRE DESTROYED AND DEGRADED?

INFORMATION BOTTLENECK OUT OF NORTH WAZIRISTAN?

WHAT OF IDPS?

C M YK

Sunday, 14 - 20 June, 2015

editOriAL

Dedicated to the legacy of the late Hameed Nizami

Arif Nizami Editor

Aziz-ud-Din Ahmad

Shahab Jafry

Joint Editor

Associate Editor

\

Grading Zarb-e-Azb

Asher John

Sajid Khan Lodhy

Chief News Editor

Senior Editor

Putting local government in place

Lahore – Ph: 042-36375963-5 Fax: 042-32535230 Karachi – Ph: 021-35381208-9 Fax: 021-35381208 Islamabad – Ph: 051-2287273 Fax: 051-2818125 Web: www.pakistantoday.com.pk Email: editorial@pakistantoday.com.pk

One year and counting

O

N the surface, at least, there is much to celebrate in the first year of Operation Zarb-eAzb. North Waziristan, long the epicentre of terrorism in Pakistan, the stronghold of the notorious haqqani Network and TTP, is no longer their command and control centre.

The combined air and land offensive has decimated the sanctuary. It has been some time, in fact, since the haqqanis were even mentioned in the local press. And Fazlullah and his boys, too, are on the run. They have long since fled across the Durand Line into Afghanistan.

But as appreciated as the success is, it also raises some questions. Not long ago we were informed that the Afghans were in fact sheltering our Taliban on their side of the border. It suited them just fine since they accused our establishment of sheltering

Perhaps a clearer picture of where we stand would stand the army, and the government, in a better position. We must know how much longer Zarb-e-Azb will last. And what it will take to make it come full circle. their brand of Taliban. Now that our enemy is on their side of the border again, what exactly is its position? Is it still being helped by elements across the border? Again, politically that would be unfeasible, since the ISI and its Afghan counterpart NDS have signed a cooperation agreement. Why, then, are they still safe in Afghanistan? And how are they able to conduct high profile attacks inside Pakistan?

Of course, there can be no

Learning from past mistakes

denying that the military must be credited with taking the fight to the enemy, even when many in government still favoured talks. Most likely that is what enabled the Taliban’s high command to slip across the border in the first place; the government’s reluctance to forego talks in favour of action.

But now the fight is in a very different phase. Fata has clearly been cleared of much of its terrorist infrastructure. But sooner or later attention must turn to cities – urban centres where blowback has different value altogether. The military has done a fine job of keeping public opinion on its side so far, even though there has been no independent verification of information coming out of FATA. Perhaps a clearer picture of where we stand would stand the army, and the government, in a better position. We must know how much longer Zarb-eAzb will last. And what it will take to make it come full circle. g

Punjab budget

T

he cantonment board polls, then LG elections in KP, followed by LG elections in Punjab and Sindh three month later will ensure that the third tier of the government is finally in place. This tier is in a way the most important one in a democratic administration as this brings governance many steps closer to the governed. even very high rates of economic growth fail to reach the poor if the service delivery falls upon a distant government and an unresponsive bureaucracy. Pakistan’s provinces are large. Population wise Punjab is bigger than Turkey, Iran and egypt taken separately. The provincial capitals in Pakistan are too distant from areas in the hinterland. Parliamentary democracy is strengthened if local issues are addressed at the grass roots level. Basic services and civic amenities affecting the people directly can be delivered and monitored effectively only at the local level.

Under military administrations of Zia-ul-haq and Pervez Musharraf the governments put extra large resources at the disposal of the local governments.

The idea was to prepare nurseries of politicians loyal to the military rulers. With the revival of democracy in 2008, the ruling parties PPP and PML-N were wary of the local governments. What is

There is a need on the part of the ECP to learn from past mistakes. Instead of holding the election on one day, it should hold it in three phases. The ECP should be more assertive and make the police and the election staff work in accordance with rules and regulations. more, the chief ministers wanted to keep the development funds at their disposal. They did not therefore hold the elections during the 20008-2013 period.

This year elections were finally announced under pressure from the Supreme Court. In KP the PTI administration made full use of the government machinery to foist party loyalists on the grass root bodies. The eCP failed to assert its authority over the police and the election staff.

There is a need on the part of the eCP to learn from past mistakes. Instead of holding the election on one day, it should hold it in three phases. The eCP should be more assertive and make the police and the election staff work in accordance with rules and regulations. g

A little to be desired

T

he Sharifs have had their share of luck, economically at least. Their finance minister got friends to shore up the rupee when the exchange rate was under strain.

The GSP Plus concession allowed export inroads into the european Union. And international Brent crude fell through the floor just when the dharna pressure began to choke the government. Through the last fiscal, Dar sb scored another novelty. he got the Fund to agree to downward revision of all major targets. That ensured the donors’ pat on the back and future tranches. And, not to the government’s surprise at least, it subsequently got rating agencies to upgrade Pakistan. There’s even talk of being granted emerging market status soon, even though the country fell short on all important targets, including growth, deficit, exports, tax, etc.

That hasn’t got PML-N to rethink its policy though. The focus is still on an expansionist fiscal policy – large scale government spending, but mostly on infrastructural projects – aided, surprisingly, by an equally accommodative monetary position. That was the gist of the federal budget recently. And that is again at the centre of

02 www.pakistantoday.com.pk

the Punjab budget. There are two basic types of economic policies that are opted between in the modern day. One focuses on identifying areas that need long term investment, and a multi tiered development policy is pursued that delivers dividends over the long term. And there’s the sudden knee-jerk policy that invests in glitter and glamour of expansionism but one that ignores the real faults of the working economy.

It is instructive that an amount of Rs603 billion have been set aside for energy projects that are still under completion. Another Rs180 billion are meant for coal based energy projects. Typical of the N-league, such investments fail to answer crucial questions. For example, we have the necessary infrastructure to meet our energy needs. The problem is resolving the circular debt that is making people and institutions and governments pay for their power. But the budget keeps missing such imperatives. There are appreciated investments in education and health, but they government has not placed these sectors at the centre of its policy concerns. Such change of direction need to be incorporated, otherwise the economy will always be under strain. g

whiteLies Apollo

For feedback, comments, suggestions and, most importantly, tips, contact us at whitelies@pakistantoday.com.pk

There’s only so many things that shahbaz sharif can do, really. If you ask those who know he’s the one who’s got the ship in shape. And if you ask those who know even more, he pulled up nothing short of a miracle by getting big brother N and Ch Nisar to make up. Ch sb shook N’s hands alright, but he ain’t backtracking on Kh Asif. Now there’s a pickle right there. They need to be on the ‘same page’. There’s a war going on, after all. But the defence minister and interior minister aren’t even on talking terms. how do you make progress here? Obviously it’s bigger than shahbaz. Who’ll end this fight simmering since the painful days of the sharifs’ exile? g

********** KhAN sb’s made a point of following the judicial commission closely. he made it happen, after all. remove the dharna from the scene and there’s no accountability, really. But the law has its rules. And Kaptaan waltzes in, sits cross-legged, even chews gum all the time. The wigs find that insulting to no end. They might not have walked Oxford’s gardens like him, but they want to be respected, even if justice delivery isn’t exactly their forte. Brings to mind Ian Botham’s two-pence about Imran about the time of their trial. If that’s what Oxford taught him, he’d be happy with lesser education any day. g

C M YK

Sunday, 14 - 20 June, 2015

opinion

overcoming debt dependency Options for Pakistan Hassan naqvi

The writer is a Lahore-based journalist who covers politics, economy and militancy. He can be reached @Hassannaqvi5 on Twitter.

i

nternational borrowing, as a form of economic relations between countries, existed even in the Middle ages, but in recent history the development of international lending, borrowing and credit in its true form developed only with the advent of world capitalism.

During its early stages international borrowing and credit was used only for production and development purposes, and it helped create a unified world capitalist market.

But with the transformation of the ‘free’ enterprise system into monopoly capital, the imperialist character of international credit was formed. in the past 60 or so years, the involvement of industrially developed capitalist countries of north america (USa and Canada), europe (UK, France, Germany and other countries of eU) as well as Japan and more recently some of the BriCS nations (China and russia), in the movement of international finance is effecting the functions of the credit market. in the second half of the 20th century and beginning of the 21st century, international credit or foreign debt has transformed itself into an important instrument for exporting capital as well as for suppression and enslavement of one country (borrower) by another (lender). one of the main characteristics of international credit or foreign debt during the Cold War era (1951-1989) was its unproductive use. another characteristic of foreign debt during modern times is the involvement of the states directly or indirectly in its payments and repayments because of which it has taken a more political and strategic role than an economic one. there cannot be any doubt in the minds of economists, sociologists, political scientists or the general public that external debt has become a burden for poor nations rather than the much-advertised source of financial help to these countries.

Cardinal Hume, archbishop of Westminster, once said, “Whatever the detailed history of today’s debt ridden countries, nearly all have one key fact in common: that those who could be blamed the least, the poorest people in the poorest countries, have suffered the most”. in the words of Kofi annan, former Secretary General United nations organisation, “a fair and transparent process for debt cancellation – an objective and comprehensive assessment by an independent panel of experts not unduly influenced by creditor interests – such an assessment should not be restricted to HiPC countries but should also encompass other debt-distressed low income and middle income countries. there should also be a commitment on the part of creditors to implement fully and swiftly any recommendation of this panel regarding the writing off of un-payable debt”. obasanjo, Former nigerian President, stated, “the people who gave these loans knew that the money wasn’t being used wisely perhaps they even took their cut yet the ordinary people have to pay back these loans this is the injustice of it all the burden of our debt is immoral”.

The World Bank has been lending to Pakistan since 1952 During this span of 63 years it has sanctioned about 93 loans and 136 credits. the World Bank’s highest borrowers are also the most corrupt according to the transparency international index.

Pakistan’s experience shows that even with the best of planning, most of the development aid is misguided or badly implemented and it is a favourite debtor country of the World Bank (among the top 12).

Yet the loud demand for more aid continues, ignoring the important factor that development depends on effective use of existing aid.

Squandering of money on projects was in the interest of the ruling elite, as the interested parties used or deposited a large portion of these funds in their personal accounts.

Pakistan’s debt position in 2014 Pakistan started receiving its so-called `foreign aid’ back in 1950-1951. at that time the share of grants and subsidies in the aid package received were 70 per cent and that of loans and credits only 30 per cent. also, at that time foreign capital was mainly used for investment purposes, development of infrastructure, energy and water resources as well as project aid. according to the words of economic Survey of Pakistan 2014-2015, “Public debt stock (of Pakistan) reached at rs15, 534 billion as at end March 2014 (Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan, 2014). as per the statement of Mr ishaq Dar, the federal minister of finance on 4th February 2015, “every Pakistani (man, woman and child) is indebted by rs90,000 or nearly rs100,000 per capita.”

in 2014 it is future, which seems provisionally unsustainable.

‘In the second half of the 20th calculated that the Three century and beginning of the public debt of Pakistan approaches to solve is rs15,534 billion, 21st century, international credit the debt problem with its external debt introduced by or foreign debt has transformed former component at 30.3 per president of itself into an important cent at rs4,711 billion.

Cuba, Fidel Castro, the it should be noted instrument for exporting capital first option is that the that firstly from 1990 total debt of the third as well as for suppression and till 2014 the public world should not be debt of the country paid back. the concept enslavement of one country rose substantially this option is (borrower) by another (lender)’ behind (more than 19 times) that these nations have from rs801 billion to already paid back to rs15,534 billion. the donors much more Secondly, although in percentage terms, than the principal amounts in the shape of the external debt component of the entire interest on these loans over the years, public debt has decreased from 53.4 to therefore the loan should automatically be 30.3 per cent in the same period. But in liquidated or “nationalised”. absolute numbers the external debt of the introduced by Former Secretary of State country has also risen substantially (more of USa Hennery Kissinger, the second than 10 time) from rs428 billion in 1990 approach is of moratorium on debt. in other to rs4,711 billion in 2014. words, having agreements between the Pakistan’s ever increasing debt burden donors and the recipient nations to freeze and the cost of servicing this debt is perhaps the debt for a minimum of 20 years, and the single most important economic issue in this amount should be spent on the uplift of the country today. economic policies of economic growth in the recipient nation. successive governments have failed When required growth rates are achieved, completely to fill the gap in the trade the debt and interest should be paid back. balance, balance of payments, budget the third approach, or the middle path, deficit, or resource gap over many decades. which is being taken by most developed Poverty has grown during this period. nations today in respect to the international Pakistan is among the most illiterate debt crisis of HiPC’s is to write off a bigger countries in the world. General health part or all of the debt of these nations through conditions of the population are very poor, mutually decided criteria and norms. this so is the income generating capacity of a is called debt retirement through mutually large number of the population. Under the agreed and mutually beneficial negations. backdrop of a high population growth rate (Jubilee international 2000) amid low economic growth, ever-increasing national debt is a recipe of disaster for the Continued on page 08...

www.pakistantoday.com.pk 03

C M YK

cOver STOry: AfTer A yeAr Azizud-din AhmAd

The writer is a political analyst and a former academic.

O

peration Zarb-e-azb launched last year in north Waziristan has achieved major successes. the capacity of the terrorist networks has been considerably degraded. the networks which had turned the agency into an international hub of terrorism have been mostly thrown out of their safe haven. their bomb and ieD making factories have been destroyed while terrorists’ networks have been deprived of the facilities for weapons training, brainwashing and motivating young people to turn them into suicide bombers. north Waziristan provided different terrorist groups a contact point. With the agency under army control, the terrorists have lost an accessible and safe meeting place. the ill-conceived decision to hold talks with the ttp allowed the terrorists to continue their activities as a result of which hundreds of people lost their lives. these deaths could have been avoided if operation Zarb-eazb had been started earlier. even when it became widely known that the army had decided to initiate a military operation it took nearly a week for the goahead to be given. the element of surprise that could have helped neutralise the terrorist leadership was lost. this provided important terrorist leaders and commanders the opportunity to escape from the agency. this explains why no

Terrorists in urban areas Who is more efficient, the terrorists or law enforcement agencies? major ttp figure could be apprehended or taken out during the operation. With the ttp leadership intact, it became possible for the scattered activists to gather round their leaders and initiate their deadly activities within months. as a result of the destruction of the cadre and resources of the ttp in north Waziristan, the incidence of terrorist activities in urban areas significantly came down in the wake of operation Zarb-e-azb. For nearly four months there was no terrorist attack causing double digit casualties. Whatever incidents took place showed poor planning and a lack of sense of priority. terrorists in urban areas, having lost contact with the leadership, unburdened themselves of whatever destructive material they had in their possession in the easiest possible way. the initial incidents were mostly confined to settled districts adjoining the tribal belt. the idea was to tell their sympathisers that the terrorists were still alive and kicking. Here and there a high profile target was chosen but the casualties remained limited. in about four months time, the terrorist leadership managed to re-establish the links broken as a result of the military operation.

Fresh suicide bombers were procured and sleeper cells in the cities reactivated. the terrorists who were on the run in the tribal areas decided to take revenge in the cities. in the first week of november came the first major attack. a suicide bomber killed over 60

unwary enthusiasts who had come to witness the flag hoisting ceremony at Wagah parade ground in Lahore. the attack badly shook the peoples’ confidence in the law enforcement bodies. in December came the carnage at the peshawar army public School which was unprecedented in pakistan, leaving 145 dead that included 132 students. the barbaric killing of innocent children was a tragedy whose impact was felt in many countries. the attacks that were to follow in various cities indicated better planning. the ttp was

‘In the first week of November came the first major attack. A suicide bomber killed over 60 unwary enthusiasts who had come to witness the flag hoisting ceremony at Wagah parade ground in Lahore’ short of physical resources as well as suicide bombers. the indiscriminate attacks at public places reminiscent of the earlier days were abandoned. the terrorist leadership henceforth concentrated on two targets: religious and sectarian minorities and personnel of law enforcement agencies. only here and there individual choice led to deviation from the plan.

in the months to come members of the Shi’a community, or sects considered to be close to the community, were to be the principle object of attacks. other minority communities like ahmadis and Christians too were considered fair game. Soon a situation was created when the number of terror attacks in the urban areas surpassed those in Fata. over the years the law enforcement agencies have brought about some improvement in their working. this led after 2012 to a gradual decline in the rate of civilian deaths. in the final analysis however the toll is determined by who is more efficient, the terrorists or law enforcement agencies. the fact that the terrorists are still capable of pulling off devastating attacks at Wagah, army public Schools, Shikarpur and Youhanabad proves that unless the intelligence agencies are better able to pool their resources and collate their information the terrorists might succeed in raising the figure of the civilian casualties. the ttp has lost numerous activists and commanders in the military operation. this has hampered their activities. in case hundreds of extremist volunteers, who left pakistan to join the iS decide to return, this could turn the ttp and its affiliates into a deadly killing machine. even if this fails to happen, the terrorist networks are already getting a regular supply of new volunteers both from the mainstream

Shades of Zarb-e-Azb ShAhAb JAfry The writer is Associate Editor, Pakistan Today. He can be reached at jafry.shahab@gmail.com

T

HeY said it would be over in a matter of months. three or four at the most. Yet Zarb-e-azb has gone on for a year. We are still, just like six months or so ago, on the verge of clearing the tribal area of all species of terrorists. and, of course, we have degraded their command and control structure. Most of them are on the run. the rest have been killed. and the small pockets that remain are being wiped out right now. Hence the airstrikes in tirah valley, and airstrikes in Khyber agency, and the ongoing operation in north Waziristan agency. popular opinion is still in favour of iSpr press releases, though, especially if you trust the media. they are happy to relay a few scores killed every few days, just as the military says. Just numbers; no names, no high profile commanders nabbed, no upper tier taliban chiefs killed in the strikes. Yet the operation is ‘largely successful’, and everybody gulps it. “it has been a success to the extent, at least, that it has brought terrorist activity in Fata under reasonable control, and incidents of terrorism overall have

04 www.pakistantoday.com.pk

Anti-terror operation is one year old

declined”, said Dr Hasan askari rizvi, prominent analyst.

“Yet it is surprising that the operation has gone on so long. initially the military said it was a three-to-four-month job, but it’s been a whole year”. this sentiment is widely shared. the operation, by and large, has been successful, even though everybody hints that there might be some grey areas.

“Militarily, the operation has been a clear success so far”, said Mansur Khan Mehsud, executive director of the Fata research centre, an islamabad based think tank that focuses on the insurgency and its fallout. “the militants are clearly on the run”. and this feeling is shared by the old Guard that oversaw the great game at a different phase of its evolution. When they ran things, setting up factories that produced indoctrinated soldier-cleric mercenaries was undisclosed state policy. and together with america and Saudi arabia, it was the lynchpin of the afghan jihad strategy that ultimately led to the dismemberment of the Soviet Union. “the operation has been successful to a large extent”, said Gen (r) Hameed Gul, who was the iSi chief during the waning years of the first afghan war. “But there are a lot of factors at play which prevent

outright success. india is more belligerent and more actively involved; it is passing a lot of money to our enemies”.

And the Taliban?

With or without india’s help, though, the taliban have proved resilient enough to regroup and re-strike despite the loss of the north Waziristan command centre. Some of its most daring strikes, including the peshawar school attack, came after Zarb-eazb took off. “the militants are obviously wellentrenched in some areas”, added Dr rizvi. “they continue to demonstrate the ability to strike violently in urban centres where militancy and religious extremism, including sectarian divisions, have strong roots with some societal support”.

But with the operation going on for so long, and terrorists still able to strike pretty much at will, questions are beginning to arise about the long-term outlook of Zarb-eazb. initially, especially after peshawar, it was believed that there was finally enough unity – since there was finally a big enough tragedy – for the operation to finally turn on former militant proxies housed in urban centres. Most of these had been ‘brought up’ by the ‘establishment’ but had turned sour after Gen Musharraf’s Lal Masjid operation.

With time, though, it became clear that the political will needed to see the operation

educational institutions and the madrassas. the terrorists will never be short of recruits unless measures are taken to block the recruitment. the text books taught in the mainstream educational institutions on the one hand inculcate hatred against other sects and religions and on the other lead to the acceptance of violence as a justified tool in the service of religion. they also propagate conspiracy theories. this explains why there is a fairly long list of highly educated persons ending up as terrorists beginning with ahmad omar Sheikh and aafia Siddiqui and leading to Saad aziz.

Most of the madrassas promote extremist thinking while many tell their students that all sects except the one they belong to are outside the pale of islam. this explains why the first generation of taliban were entirely the products of religious seminaries. it is therefore a religious duty to wage a jihad against them. the present leadership of the ttp and its offshoots are all madrassa products, Qazi Fazlullah being the most outstanding example. Most of the terror commanders are Qaris, the title indicating their connection with the madrassas, the notorious Qari Hussain, who trained hundreds of suicide bombers, had also received madrassa schooling . as operation Zarb-e-azb takes toll of terrorists in the tribal areas, another generation of terrorists is being raised in the cities of pakistan. the desire to uproot terrorism from pakistan will remain a dream unless a comprehensive attempt is made to de-radicalise the mainstream educational curricula and regulate the madrassas. g

through big cities was simply missing. “the military seems focused on the tribal area, but a different approach will be needed for cities, and that has not evolved, either in the military or the civilian leadership”, added Dr rizvi. that, most probably, is why the national action plan (nap), that was supposed to be the blue print of the grand strategy that would end terrorism forever, never got off the ground. “nap never happened because the political leadership does not have the will”, said Gen Gul. and the n-league has good reason not to be interested. it is politically inconvenient for it to alienate the rightwing Deobandi lobby that forms its core support base. “interests of some of these militant groups overlap with those of the political support base of the government”, said Dr rizvi. that, again, explains what happened to nap. Whether or not the action plan will still be central to victory remains to be seen.

So far, the military has taken out the terrorist infrastructure in the tribal area. if the objectives of Zarb-e-azb were limited to Fata, it would be mission accomplished.

But they promised “all hues and colours”, which means big cities, population centres, urban hubs, punjabi taliban, etc. and nap is nowhere to be seen. and the ruling party is not interested hunting militants in punjab and Sindh. and there is really no chance of any movement on the madrassas. and only very selective information comes down from the mountain – and it’s always about dozens of militants killed, etc. the word on the street, though, is ‘all good’. one year out, Zarb-e-azb continues to be taken at face value. g

C M YK

Sunday, 14 - 20 June, 2015

One year of Operation Zarb-e-Azb Consolidating gains

N

obody expected operation Zarb-eAzb to be a short term proposition.

The most striking aspect of the operation was the categorical note adopted by the Pakistan army, denouncing terrorism in all forms and manifestations. It needs to be recalled that the army had resisted the need to win back North Waziristan, which has been associated with the Haqqani group and other outfits, allegedly valued by military establishment as strategic assets. defence and political analyst, Wajahat Masood told DNA that the emergence of dharna politics immediately after the launching of operation Zarb-e-Azb dampened the focus on the menace of religious extremism.

However, the Peshawar Army Public School incident in middecember brought back the desired impetus in military action against terrorist outfits.

An important related development was the passage of the 21st constitutional amendment, ushering in military courts and an elaborate national action plan. The second phase of operation Zarb-e-Azb in 2015 also coincided with steps against violence in Karachi.

“The impact of military courts on the course of the national campaign against terrorism is yet to be seen.

However, the military action has definitely disrupted the terror network, besides killing or capturing important terrorist characters. As of now, it appears to be a long term initiative, which will test the nerves, resolve and resources of the nation,” said Masood.

He added that reportedly, a large number terrorists are captured in area outside Fata and cities however, no concrete evidence has been put on record and well known terrorist assets are still at large and many groups continue to allegedly enjoy a soft corner in the echelons of power and policy. outlawed groups and a myriad terrorist outfits have been on the national scene for

too long not to be in liaison with mainstream political parties, and it is very likely that such links are still at play. only consistent state policy can disrupt and eliminate covert threats of violence and terror.

According to ISPR, North Waziristan and Khyber Agency, including Tirah Valley, have been cleared of terrorists during the first year of Zarb-e-Azb. “A small number of terrorists are presently hiding at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border near dadukhel and operations are being launched against them as well,” an ISPR official told DNA. The official said that more than 2,800 terrorists have been killed in the first year of Zarb-eAzb and 340 officials of the

‘Outlawed groups and a myriad terrorist outfits have been on the national scene for too long not to be in liaison with mainstream political parties, and it is very likely that such links are still at play’ Pakistan army were martyred.

Historically, there have of course been doubts about information coming from a primarily military source for the consumption of civilians.

Throughout the world, militaries are not known for being wellsprings of information — quite the converse, really. In the specific context of Pakistan, it is no secret that under specific military regimes, information clampdown or censorship has been quite the hallmark.

Reviewing one year of operation Zarb-e-Azb, political analyst Marvi Sirmed said that when the operation started last year, we were told, in brief press release by ISPR that the main objective of the operation was to dismantle terrorist networks and their sanctuaries from NWA. on

the completion of 150 days of the operation, media was told that 90 percent area had been cleared.

“After a year, progress stands where it was last year. After so many casualties of our soldiers, we have no idea where the operation stands because the fight keeps recurring in area already declared ‘clear’ by army.

Tirah valley is a case in point,” she added.

There is a very little transparency on Zarb-e-Azb. Media is informed about the casualties in mostly one liners issued by ISPR. No questioning and no access to information are being allowed. In this situation, there is very little that can be commented on.

“The operation has effects in the rest of the country in terms of a sudden influx of people in Karachi, Islamabad and different areas of Punjab too. The issue of IdPs affects both hosts in the cities as well as migrants. The lingering operation without any accountability and transparency is adding to the problem rather than the solution,” said Sirmed.

She urged the need for parliament to be briefed on the progress of Zarb-e-Azb alongside the budget incurred so far, our soldiers’ casualties and concrete results that have been achieved.

However, defence analyst Muhammad Amir Rana thinks otherwise. “The infrastructure of the militant outfits has been destroyed because of the ongoing operation Zarb-e-Azb, which gave the impression that we are only receiving information from ISPR, which is not true,” he said.

Rana added that the main objectives of the operation were met in the first year which was to win back the lost territory from the clutches of militant outfits.

Commenting on prospects of the operation moving on to urban areas, political economist from Lahore University of Management and Sciences (LUMS) Mobeen Ahmed Chughtai, told DNA that other than the particular case of Karachi — if the “operation” was to be moved into the urban areas then it would have been done by

now. Standard guerrilla tactics suggest that weaker guerrilla opponents quickly vacate areas where conventional armies concentrate in numbers or achieve tactical superiority.

These terrorists have safe havens across the borders of Pakistan — borders which are naturally and culturally too porous for tight patrolling to have any effect, he added.

“The urban operations should have started weeks ago, realistically. but they haven’t, which raises concerns over whether past selective definition of targets is being reconsidered within the corridors of power,” said Chughtai.

Answering a question about affiliations of political parties with extremist groups, Chughtai added that as far as the

‘Rumi said these operations require effective policing and intelligence coordination through civilian platforms such as NACTA that remain underfunded and weak’ connection between political parties and extremist groups are concerned — one needs to understand that it is an inescapable consequence of the form of politics practiced in Pakistan.

“To expect a Pakistani political party to cut off ties from extremist groups of one form or another, under this current political paradigm, is like expecting an entrepreneur to forgo investment capital and yet achieve business growth,” said Chughtai.

It does not happen. To separate political parties from religious or ultra-nationalist extremist backing requires several measures that we, as a society, have considered forbidden and unholy. This, despite glaring evidence from nations who pursued such

policies and are, today, enjoying the fruits of more robust systems of administration and more representative forms of governance. “but since the operation is not really spearheaded by the political elite and finds its actual primary motivation from within the Pakistani establishment — the day it is directed towards any particular nexus – ‘political’ considerations will, effectively speaking, go out the window,” he added.

For analyst Raza Rumi, Zarbe-Azb was surely a defining moment for Pakistan. “Thus far the achievements have been solid. Much of North Waziristan has been cleared and TTP is on the defensive. This has also led to the undoing of transnational terror networks that were operating there for many years,” said Rumi.

He added that the reasons for delay, however, have not been fully made public. Also, the major problem with the results is that it remains a no-go area for local media and therefore the outcomes cannot be fully verified. Secondly, the affiliates of TTP such as sectarian groups are yet to be dismantled and can be found everywhere in the mainland of Pakistan — from South Punjab to Karachi and from balochistan to central Punjab.

Rumi said these operations require effective policing and intelligence coordination through civilian platforms such as NACTA that remain underfunded and weak. There is also the larger issue of tackling the ideological base of militants i.e., the madrassas.

The latter not only provide the justification for militancy but also provide the manpower that is required by militant groups. It is unclear whether the army or the government are committed to regulating the seminaries and bringing them under state control. Unless that is done the results of Zarb-e-Azb will not be consolidated, he said. g – Hassan Naqvi

Timeline of terrorist attacks since Zarb-e-Azb Date 8 June 8 June 11 June

Location Quetta Karachi Swat Valley

15 August 6 September 2 November 7 November 16 december 18 december 13 January 14 January 30 January 13 February 17 February 24 February 15 March 20 March 13 May 29 May

Quetta Karachi Wagah, Lahore Mohmand Agency Peshawar bajaur Agency Loralai, balochistan Kurram Agency Shikarpur, Sindh Peshawar Lahore Chaman, balochistan Lahore Karachi Karachi Mastung, balochistan

Nature of the attack Attack on a bus Jinnah Intl Airport attacked An attack in Kooza bandi village, another on a checkpoint in dargai, Malakand Attack on airbase PNS Zulfiqar warship attacked Attack near Wagah border bomb explosions Army Public School attacked Roadside bomb Attack on security forces Landmine blast bomb blast in a Shia mosque Shia mosque attacked Attack near Police Lines bomb blast youhanabad churches attacked bomb explosion near a mosque Ismailis attacked in a bus Attack on Shias in a bus

Casualties 24 killed 30 killed, 10 militants also killed Three killed in first incident, two Levies personnel killed in the second attack 12 militants and 11 persons injured 10 militants killed 60 killed, 110 injured 6 killed, 4 injured 141 killed including 132 children 3 paramilitary soldiers killed 7 security forces killed, 2 injured 2 security personnel killed, 3 injured 53 killed 19 killed 8 killed, 19 injured 1 killed, 8 injured 14 killed, 70 injured 2 killed, 7 injured 43 killed Compiled by: 22 killed Sajid Khan Lodhy www.pakistantoday.com.pk 05

C M YK

Sunday, 14 - 20 June, 2015

cover story: after a year

the ‘other side’ of the existential war The balm to sooth the wounds of the IDPs

Luavut Zahid The writer is Pakistan Today’s Special Correspondent. Her work places an emphasis on conflict and disasters, human rights, religious and sexual minorities, climate change, development and governance. She also serves as the Pakistan Correspondent to the Crisis Response Journal. She can be reached at: luavut@gmail.com, and she tweets at: @luavut.

t

he budget for FY2015-2016 once again threw the spotlight on the war on terror and its collateral damage i.e., Zarb-e-Azb and the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). While the operation itself got another Rs45 billion, the IDPs were luckier at more than twice that amount with Rs 100 billion. The interesting part is how the IDPs were allotted a budget two times the size of the war itself.

Safdar Dawar, the general secretary of the Tribal Union of Journalists (TUJ) spoke to Pakistan Today about the year that’s gone by for the IDPs. “It wasn’t supposed to last this long.

When the people were rounded up to be moved to camps they were told they were going for two weeks… and it’s been more than a year now,” he said.

More than a million IDPs were borne of the Zarb-e-Azb operation. “They want nothing except to go home,” Dawar said wistfully and added, “According to the ISPR more than 80 per cent of the areas have been cleared, so why can’t these people go home?” he asked.

When the IDPs first settled into the camps they were told that they would be given cash, food, educational and health facilities.

Only after a short while, all these promises began to fall apart. hurmat Ali Shah, a researcher whose family was affected during the 2009 Swat operation, has worked in IDP camps as a volunteer. he sums up the problems being faced by the IDPs in one sweep, “Bearing with the summer in the open, water scarcity for bathing, etc, long queues for collecting food, which given the size and inadequate utensils that an IDP family has, is not enough, general hygiene problems, shelters are not proper, a lot of load shedding in camps, lack of health facilities, no education or schooling for the kids, sub-standard quality of food, and so on,” he says sardonically.

Muhammad Rasool, a journalist who worked closely with the IDPs, says that a great humanitarian crisis is at play and the casualties are numerous. “The people that are registered with

06 www.pakistantoday.com.pk

the government get help and the others get nothing,” he said.

“When the people were first shifted to these areas their children were told to go to government schools that were not really close to the camps. The Bannu area is mountainous itself and those tents have been settled into literal mountains. Most children are not getting any access to education, and the ones that do have access are learning nothing,” Rasool told Pakistan Today.

“Youngsters attend a college that has no teachers and study on their own. The only time they see an educator is when time comes for them to be given their exams, after that they either pass or fail,” he said.

The healthcare facilities are not better. “Three months after the operation began the hospitals began to improve but since then things have gone downhill.

Children have been dying because of either lack of healthcare or extremely poor quality healthcare — the issues being faced by women are another issue altogether,” he lamented.

But what of the promises the government made?

“What promises? Their tents are too hot and they only have one fan. Do you think they can survive in such conditions? The children haven o shoes, they roam around barefoot. The conditions are worse than a slum,” Rasool exclaimed.

The government has said that it will provide aid to those that return to find their homes entirely destroyed. “They are saying that around Rs300,000400,000 will be given to people who have lost their homes. Just a gate costs that much in that area, how are people supposed to rebuild an entire home?” he asked.

Rasool spoke at length about the markets and businesses in Miran Shah. The area supposedly had goods worth billions when people were evacuated for the operation. “But we’re now hearing reports that all of it has been bulldozed,” he said.

Dawar reiterated Rasool’s claims. “Miran Shah is in ruins.

That place didn’t have thousands or millions worth of goods, it had billions. All of that is gone, we have no idea what happened to those the things in the markets there. The homes that these people want to return to, the lives that they want to return to, may be found flattened,” he said.

The reality is that the families that are desperate to return to their homes, might find nothing when they get there. “The actual fact is that the area they have to return to have no homes and no businesses. everything is gone.

They pulled out in such a hurry that they had made no provisions to bring more things along. A lot of people left most of their valuables back home,” Rasool said, before adding, “No matter how much money you can come up with how will you substantiate all these people?”

The money trail Since the last four to six months the designated money that was meant to be distributed as a stipend has been stopped

‘When the people were first shifted to these areas their children were told to go to government schools that were not really close to the camps. The Bannu area is mountainous itself and those tents have been settled into literal mountains’ without a word from the government. This is despite a substantial influx of aid for the IDPs, and promises made by the government repeatedly that they will be taken care of.

But few know where the aid comes from and where it goes.

“IDPs have no concept of aid and have no idea where it comes from, who is using it and where it is going,” Rasool informed.

“They get two things, the 12k which they haven’t been given since the last few months, and free treatment, which hasn’t been given to them. They were also promised free education — which is but a joke,” he said.

“All of the money [from aid] does not go to benefit them. The money is shown to be providing for the food etc, but the cash which is required for the people is never provided and their income sources have been cut, imagine living without money for a year,” Shah said speaking of his experience in the camps. he points out that getting the numbers may not be as simple as it sounds. “The rehabilitation process is led by army, so one can’t ask them how much have they spent on actual rehabilitation and how much on their operation. Money given to the returning families for reconstructing their homes is too low, in case of Swat it was Rs400,00 for a completely demolished house. how can a person re-build a house of 7,8 rooms with that money?” he exclaimed.

“Moreover, the income generation for the returnees in not something anyone is even thinking of. Swat got a lot of attention which helped it only a little bit — in this case there is no such hue and cry. In the case of

NWA where displacement has become a routine matter, no one will think of how they the returnees can have an income.

When they return they’ll be given a few thousand rupees… and that’s it,” he said.

Dawar feels that the situation isn’t that bad, it just needs a little bit of an effort.

“A lot of money has been ‘set aside’ for the IDPs. even the annual development program has money for the IDPs. The Rs100 billion fund is just another addition. It needs to be spent on things that can help,” he said, and the IDPs already know on what: “Time and time again the people here have asked for educational and health facilities to no avail,” he added.

“All the elders of the tribal areas and the people of these areas want basic health, educational and infrastructure facilities. Yes, the Rs100 billion would be more than enough. If they use even 50 per cent of it things would improve here — but they won’t,” he said.

“We have been investigating why the foreign funds that are sent for the people here never reach them,” he said while explaining the mystery of where the funds go.

Rasool pointed out a key problem in the entire scenario.

“There is no IDP committee which can scrutinise such funds, no watchdog who knows what is happening with them. What should have been done is that the IDPs should have been put in control to some extent,” he suggested as a means to bring in some transparency. “even people like us, who follow the news, don’t know where this money has gone or what it was used for, so what would the IDPs know?” he asked.

“Dollars do come in, but by the time they reach the IDPs they aren’t even as valuable as a rupee,” he added.

A voice from the inside A source from within the government spoke to Pakistan Today about what goes on in the IDP camps. After the work that he’s done, the source expects very little that’s positive for the IDPs. “For the past four to six months they’ve really been given no money,” he confirmed.

“Originally the army had a food distribution setup but that was abolished and they were given cylinders to work with and they’re surviving on that. The only food they have is basic things like wheat, pulses and oil, etc,” he said.

“The living conditions are terrible, there are no washrooms, the population is too high and the facilities provided aren’t nearly enough,” he added.

The area is known to attract NGOs that are willing to lend a helping hand. The source feels that they, too, are completely useless, at addressing the core issues being faced by the people in the camps. “They keep working on what they think are ‘gradual improvements’ and their efforts are below anything that is required. For instance, they will distribute a few towels amongst the people and pretend that it’s a huge step forward… that doesn’t

‘On whether he feels that the whopping Rs100 billion allocation in the budget will make a difference, he said, “Pakistan doesn’t have many stories of good things happening to people, I don’t see anything heading in the IDPs direction either”’ really help,” he said.

The government official doesn’t know where the aid goes, either. “There is no real output to show for all that aid. No one knows where the money is going, I don’t see it being used anywhere to help people here. The aid is a big question mark,” the source said.

Just like Swat, these people too will be given small funds and sent on their way. “I think they’ll be given Rs15,000 for transportation and another Rs10,000 as token money. And food for about six months will be given to them,” he said and added that the repatriation process will take around two years to complete according to the official schedule.

“Very few families have gone away,” he said and added: “The problem is that people when they go there, due to security reasons and other problems they aren’t able to move around freely. They get stuck in the places that they go back to.”

Meanwhile, the government’s attitude over the situation doesn’t help. And where there’s governmental involvement, corruption seems to soon follow — the camps are unfortunately no different.

“There’s the PDMA and the FDMA, now they’ve even started asking for money to register people. They’ve started asking people for Rs18,000 as ‘fee’ to register people in the Bannu camps. So corruption doesn’t care about IDPs,” he said sarcastically.

On whether he feels that the whopping Rs100 billion allocation in the budget will make a difference, he said, “Pakistan doesn’t have many stories of good things happening to people, I don’t see anything heading in the IDPs direction either.” however, trouble maybe just around the corner. Protests and anger have started to become a recurring theme at the camps.

Darwar said that the situation needs to be tackled properly and people need to be allowed to go back home.

“The youth has been protesting for the conditions that they have been subjected to.

They’ve been given a timeframe over and over again after which they will be sent back to their areas, however, after each lapse nothing happens,” Dawar said.

Whether the Rs100 billion will be the balm to sooth the wounds of the war torn IDPs is yet to be ascertained. What’s clear, however, is that the year they have spent in camps was no less than one spent in hostile captivity. g

C M YK

Sunday, 14 - 20 June, 2015

opinion

Another phony psychological war They really have lost their marbles

Khawaja Manzar aMin

T

The writer is a freelance columnist.

he top Indian leadership seems to have suffered a seriously disorienting panic attack as is evident from its ridiculous daily escalating inflammatory statements, or it may be that it is now showing its true BJP colours: saffron, frothing at the mouth and virulently antiPakistan. The signing of the China Pakistan economic Corridor (CPeC) in particular, the success of Pakistan’s anti-terrorism Zarb-e-Azb operation, the Local Bodies elections in Gilgit-Baltistan, the slowdown in the Baloch insurgency, the thaw in relations with Afghanistan and especially the accord between the ISI and the Afghan National Security Directorate, have been too much of a shock for Narendra Modi and company to stomach. And, no doubt, due to a combination of all these complaints, they have unleashed a vicious psychological war to threaten and intimidate us. The Indian prime minister, the defence minister, the external affairs minister, the national security advisor, and last but not least a junior minister (who compared Pakistan to Myanmar and threatened surgical strikes against it at a time and place of the Indians’ choosing!) have all participated in the venomous Pakistan-bashing. The Indian army chief, perhaps more keenly aware of the ground realities, has however maintained a studied silence so far.

Official rejoinders have belatedly been issued by the civilian setup (remember there is no Pakistani foreign minister), and some politicians, but there has no joint session of parliament and unanimous condemnation of the Indians. Perhaps the personal economic interests of some stand in the way. The most meaningful statements have come from the army chief who left no doubt or ambiguity about Pakistan’s capability and resolve to effectively thwart any threatening moves by the fevered neighbour. earlier, the army chief’s vigorous verbal riposte on Kashmir being an inseparable part of Pakistan and the unfinished agenda of partition was inevitable as well as timely since the top Indian leadership had started firing multi-barrelled salvoes at Pakistan, not only physically on the Line of Control and the Working Boundary, but also calculated volleys on the geo-political front, their intolerable reaction to the recently signed CPeC. The statements were as menacing as those emanating from New Delhi after their atomic tests in 1998 and before Pakistan had completed the predictable and formal tit-for-tat at its end.

The senior BJP leader LK Advani was then in the forefront of those gloating over India’s newfound atomic status and taunting Pakistan to vacate Azad Kashmir and mend its ways in future or else, as if to call its bluff.

But Pakistan was effectively able to counter every hostile Indian move, as in the longdrawn eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation of 2001-2002, when the over-confident enemy had massed its entire army, including elements from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, on the borders. The country’s nuclear arsenal and the Pakistani leadership’s resolute will to resist acted as deterrence in ending the stand-off. But it was a close run thing, and one skirmish in the border wastelands of Sindh could have

triggered a rapid escalation leading to the shot fired in anger must be ruthlessly use of the ‘unmentionable’ weapon and the eradicated. The time should come when end of the story for both antagonists. The influential officers themselves volunteer next war, since nobody could be the winner for the most dangerous assignments. in a catastrophic atomic conflagration, In the Napoleonic Wars, it is recorded would be fought with stones, as Albert that the “captain of a French artillery einstein once confidently predicted. battery at the beginning of a battle with his The ruling BJP represents and comprises left fist grasps an artilleryman by the chest the extreme lunatic fringe element in Indian and with the tip of his sword pointing at a politics, the wild fascist one. Its unalloyed spot on the ground says, ‘You die here!’ hatred for Muslims in general and Pakistan looking at him all the while, then to the in particular is fixed and fanatical, despite its next, ‘You here!’ and to a third and fourth occasional hollow acts of extending the hand and all the rest, ‘here, here and here’! And of friendship, as in the invitation to our to the last ‘here’! It is remarked that ‘this almost impatient prime minister to attend command to the soldiers to die without any his inauguration ceremony. The destruction of argument had an extraordinary effect’, but Pakistan, this unbearable vivisection of Mother of course one must also consider Napoleon’s India and a nuisance in its self-professed military genius and the fact that ‘France, global march, is and will always remain the newborn through revolution, possessed a primary motivation of the BJP mindset. It is real inner strength, a superiority of spirit too deeply rooted in its gut and psyche. and will…’ Still, this is an experiment to be Narendra Modi outdid all his lackeys in imitated when the situation is desperate. his implacable hatred of Pakistan on his The Israelis have based their nuclear recent visit to Bangladesh. With a slavishly doctrine on the ‘Samson Option’, that is, we smiling Sheikh hasina by his side, Modi may be destroyed, but we will take the world must have felt he was among kindred with us, a throwback to the blinded Biblical spirits. he was at ease and put on a big Jewish hero who in his last act after show. As a deliberate provocation, he was regaining his strength, killed thousands of presented with an elaborately engraved Philistines by bringing down their Temple. photograph showing the surrender of the So too, Pakistan should evolve the Tariq ibn Pakistan army commander to the Indian Ziyad ‘burning of the boats’ mindset of army in 1971. hell hath no fury like a ‘either be victorious or martyred. There is no woman’s scorn and disdain, indeed! third choice. All means of escape have been Whatever the ultimate fate of the destroyed’. The Berber general had defeated gigantic CPeC, it has well and truly the Visigoth King Roderic in the Iberian highlighted the immense strategic value of Peninsula with a small force of 17,000 against the little known and long ignored scenic a reported army of 100,000 in 711 AD. Gilgit-Baltistan The intelligence region, made a network must be separate province by continuously ‘The ruling BJP represents and the previous civilian expanded and comprises the extreme lunatic government. In their upgraded and taught overall military the tactics of the fringe element in Indian politics, scheme of things, the classic famous (or the wild fascist one. Its unalloyed Indian top brass infamous) Tsarist must be eying a Ochrana, the Soviet hatred for Muslims in general and quick seizure of the Cheka (what a Pakistan in particular is fixed and northern areas in fanatical idealist its fanatical, despite its occasional case of a new founder Felix ‘limited’ Dzerzhinsky was), hollow acts of extending the hand confrontation to cut the NKVD and KGB of friendship, as in the invitation Pakistan off from and the Gestapo. One to our almost impatient prime China once for all of the decisive and then occupy it reasons behind the minister to attend his permanently by Supreme Khan inauguration ceremony’ claiming it as an Chingiz’s inevitable integral part of success in battle was Kashmir. The Indian his superior national security adviser recently even intelligence service. A common refrain in the talked of ‘India’s 106 km long border with Mongol camp was, ‘Are not the Khan’s eyes Afghanistan’, meaning the present GB and ears everywhere?’ and for his ‘chiefest border! They really have lost their marbles. general’ Subedei Baatur (or Bahadur), the If ever a region needs to be kept safe ‘eyes and ears’ left behind in southern Russia from the internal storms battering the rest were more valuable than the treasures won of the country, especially the sectarian in battle on the expedition. tempest, it is this extremely vulnerable The US-India cozying up to counter corner where the borders of China, China and to establish Indian hegemony in Pakistan and Afghanistan meet and where the region presents a major worry and a the ‘Great Game’ was once played out by difficult balancing act for Pakistan. The imperialist Britain and Tsarist Russia. The enemies of Pakistan leave no stone Pakistan military must make this frontier unturned to keep their hate propaganda at a region militarily impregnable. high pitch. Recently, there were two cases The time of pandering to every Indian involving probably fake African-based whim and fancy by our weak trader-rulers NGO’s on the United Nation’s roster, which must end. Let the Indians rave and rage to were engaged in wanton political attacks the high heaven itself over Gilgit-Baltistan about the situation in Balochistan and and the CPeC, let them protest and rail all whom our diplomats wanted removed from they can to their new found strategic ally, the the panel (one NGO was reportedly not even USA. Pakistan must ruthlessly and singleregistered in its native African country). In mindedly follow its own national interests. both cases, the USA, India and Israel voted The military must be deeply imbued against the deletion, with India in particular with an even greater spirit of honour and quite vehement for their retention. The vote sacrifice, a willingness to fight against all in the 19 member UN Committee on NGOs odds to the bitter end or to lay down one’s was 13-5 and 12-5 in both the cases in life without question. For, ‘the shame of a favour of removal. Both China and Iran humiliating capitulation can never be supported Pakistan with their votes. effaced… this drop of poison in the blood of however, these are the kinds of diverse a nation is past on, and undermines the dangers that the country faces today, and it strongest of the future generations’. The cannot afford to relax its vigilance or lower unprofessional practice of withdrawing its guard at any time on any front. senior officers’ sons and relations from the But how do matters stand on our front at a time of border tension for political front? In this dire hour when undertaking various courses or for sporting national unity is of the essence, what do we reasons and the award of high military find? Former President Ayub Khan once said honours to those who have never heard a that the opposition parties of his time were

‘The US-India cozying up to counter China and to establish Indian hegemony in the region presents a major worry and a difficult balancing act for Pakistan.

The enemies of Pakistan leave no stone unturned to keep their hate propaganda at a high pitch’

like ‘nine cats tied by their tails’.

Unfortunately this aphorism still holds true with the addition that they are mostly at each others’ throats. Their favourite pastimes are the joys of protocol and VIP culture, trading barbs, opportunism, moneymaking, corruption, wheel jam strikes, and calling for each others’ resignation, rather than resolving political disputes peacefully and concentrating on nation-building. But, ‘their purpose is ambition, their practice only hate’. Armed with gigantic and vindictive egos but entirely devoid of vision and moral restraint, the majority of our politicians are not exactly Napoleons of the mind or models of intellect and will. The Imran Khan led PTI is the cat among the pigeons for them due to its meteoric rise as also the abrasive statements routinely emanating from the Khan. At a press conference, the ANP leader Wali Khan childishly vowed to ‘take revenge’ because the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa police had arrested a senior ANP leader after a fatal shooting incident. The ‘united brothers’ and their extended ‘first family’ (of which the federal information minister seems to be an honorary or ex-officio member) have nothing better to do than to heap scorn on the hated PTI as does the thoroughly discredited last-will-and -testament PPP cochairman. In a classic display of arrogance springing from family ties, political power and untold wealth, the royal sumdi had called for a journalist, who had asked a perfectly logical question at his post budget press conference, to be thrown out of the room! The JUI-F chief goes calmly on his brazenly self-serving way, and in another bizarre touch, reportedly paced to and fro in the national assembly during the budget speech. The MQM leader, though it is hard to imagine this considering his grossness, is like the man on the flying trapeze, somersaulting from one position to its diametric opposite in his political statements, or rather sermons from the pulpit. All of our miserable leaders are spreading divisions and hatred and these fighting felines must get their act together quickly or be ready to be cleaned up if the present critical domestic and international situation continues to deteriorate. Perhaps a national government for the next thirty years or till the CPeC projects are completed (with a minus 10 formula for each party!) might be the answer to our present political predicament. Unfortunately, the current crop of tycoon-politician types lack the most important aspect of leadership, idealism, they cannot move a foot without a commission, a bill and a receipt, and the profit motive. At this rate they will themselves deliver the country trussed up to the enemy, a defenceless victim of their incompetence, bottomless greed and infighting.

Napoleon once said that warlike ‘Prussia had been hatched out of a cannon ball’, and later some anti-Teutonic wit remarked that ‘the best way to treat a Prussian is to step on his toes until he apologises’! Perhaps that is also the correct way to confront the militarily aggressive and feverishly arming Indians with their laughable global aspirations amid their horrendous poverty.

Pakistan may be a ‘nuisance’ for Narendra Modi but in the last analysis, it is a nuclear armed nuisance, and that little difference should also be factored in the Indians’ grandiose plans, schemes and intrigues. g www.pakistantoday.com.pk 07

C M YK

Sunday, 14 - 20 June, 2015

oPinion

india lures Pakistan into brinkmanship Who will ‘chicken out’ first?

Mian abrar The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist.

He can be reached at hussainmian@gmail.com.

P

akistan and india relations are back to square one. Once again both the neighbouring states with extensive nuclear arsenals have got involved in verbal attacks on one another, increasing the possibility of a conflict between the two states. the verbal attacks and open confessions coming from india about the blatant involvement of its security apparatus in acts of terrorism and subversion on Pakistani soil suggests that the indian regime is trying to lure Pakistan into brinkmanship, also called “the chicken-game”. the situation has been further aggravated by the volley of inciting admissions by indian ministers and prime minister narendra Modi regarding the 1971 war in East Pakistan and creation of Bangladesh. the vitriol by indian ministers has led to further complication of the situation and old wounds are bleeding again. the sequence of recent events suggests that india - using its international influence and muscle - is bent upon subverting the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which can be a game changer for Pakistan’s future economic and infrastructural development. in order to achieve its objective of getting the CPEC stalled, india is now luring Pakistan into brinkmanship or a ‘chicken-game’. it remains to be seen who will win this game of nerves?

What is brinkmanship?

Brinkmanship is the practice of pushing dangerous events to the brink of disaster in order to achieve the most advantageous

outcome. it occurs in international politics, foreign policy, labour relations. in contemporary setting of international Relations, it comprises military strategy involving the threats of the use of nuclear weapons along with highstake litigation. this manoeuvre of pushing a situation with the opponent to the brink using the media as a tool for proliferation succeeds by forcing the opponent to back down and make concessions. this might be achieved through diplomatic manoeuvres by creating the impression that one is willing to use extreme methods rather than concede. During the Cold War, the threat of nuclear force was often used as such an escalating measure. this is also called the chicken game - as both the countries tend to move towards a head-on collision. Whoever blinks first in this nerve-game is called a chicken. if no one chickens out, a disaster awaits for both.

Pakistan, in comparison, has been following the doctrine of Mutually assured Destruction (MaD). this is a military strategy and national security policy in which a full-scale use of high-yield weapons of mass destruction by two or more opposing sides would cause the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the defender (such as Pre-emptive nuclear strike and second strike). it is based on the theory of deterrence where the threat of using strong weapons against the enemy prevents the enemy’s use of those same weapons. the strategy is a form of nash equilibrium in which neither side, once armed, has any incentive to initiate a conflict or to disarm. the indian brinkmanship is perhaps an answer to Pakistan’s MaD doctrine which was adopted during the tenure of former military dictator, General Pervez Musharraf. in order to understand the developing situation, i exclusively talked to General (retd) talat Masood, one of the few moderate and broadminded commentators on military affairs.

When i asked General talat if india has got Pakistan involved into brinkmanship, the veteran army officer responded in affirmative.

“Well i think you have raised a very interesting question.

Unfortunately, yes india is doing it. they are trying brinkmanship by testing limits to see how much Pakistan could be lured into confrontation mode. But i think this indian policy is immature and unwise,” he said.

General talat, who has recently been involved in extensive backchannel efforts to help normalise tensions between Pakistan and india, believes that the new adventure by the new indian government may sabotage all the good work done by former envoys, military and civilian leaders to help diffuse tensions.

Unfortunately, this chickengame may bring more harm for indians than for Pakistan as indian government is pursuing an ambitious economic agenda.

Moreover, india is also making efforts to win a permanent seat in the United nations security Council (UnsC). But any misadventure may take indians back to square-one.

“Yes, i believe this brinkmanship may harm indians more. indian regime is following a hyper-national asked how he sees the future developments, General talat Masood said that Pakistan should prepare for the worst but it should work for diffusing the situation along with its allies in the world. “nawaz sharif’s policy is mature and balanced. He is not reacting and despite pressure from Pakistani hawkish politicians, the premier is conducting himself responsibly,” he added.

“We will have to see how long can indians take this chickengame. they can’t keep pushing Pakistan to the brink. it is childish to push a nuclear power to the edge. they are, in my view, trying to trap Pakistan into chaos and disharmony. the worst thing they are doing is to incite the military.

Democratic government should not do it,” observed the veteran general.

Anti-Pakistan subversive designs in October 2013, an investigation involving a Public interest Litigation (PiL) case in india revealed a spy military intelligence unit, called the technical services Division (tsD),

Overcoming debt dependency

08 www.pakistantoday.com.pk

which had been created by former indian army Chief General Vk singh in 2008. an official serving the unit openly revealed to the Hindustan times that the unit’s main aim had been to combat “the rising trend of state-sponsored terrorism by the isi” and the unit thus developed contacts across the Line of Control in a bid to infiltrate the inner circle of Hafiz saeed, the maverick chief of the outlawed Lashkar-e-taiba (Let). a scrutiny of army documents by the Hindustan times confirmed that the spook unit had even been approved by the Director General Military intelligence, Vice Chief and Chief of army staff of india. among the operations it carried out, it was responsible for the Operation Rehbar 1, 2, 3 in kashmir and Operation Deep strike in Pakistan. the unit while preparing, planning and executing special operations neutralising enemy efforts within the countries of interest by covert means also covered any tracks leading back to the organisation. the unit was later disbanded.

Pakistani officials also point to the indian ‘RaW’s participation in instigating militancy in Pakistan by profusely providing financial and weapon support to Baloch militant groups. these include the Balochistan Liberation army, Baloch Republican army and Balochistan Liberation Front. although yet to prove at any public forum, the intelligence agencies claim these militant outfits as separatist groups are acting on behalf of external forces and, according to them, “evidence reveals they have been found to be harboured at various places and training camps which have been administered by RaW since 2006. in January 2015, Pakistan’s Chief of army staff General Raheel sharif also presented a dossier to top Us officials during a visit to Washington detailing explicit evidence of indian secret agencies’ involvement in inciting and supporting militancy in Pakistan’s troubled regions using afghan soil. some critics even go to the extent of saying that indian agencies have not only been exporting terrorism to Pakistan,

...continued from page 03 For Pakistan’s debt problem the option of debt retirement through a mutually agreed formula and approach between the government and its donors is the only option. an agreement should be reached that the amount of financial resources saved from debt retirement should be spent on the uplift of the poor and other deprived section of the society through community participation and under strict monitoring of the donor agencies and organisations. the donors are at fault as much as the ruling elite of Pakistan is, and the time has come that both these sections should take the responsibility away from the poverty-stricken people who should not be made responsible twice over for the mistakes and misconduct of others.

On one side, finances meant for their uplift and economic development were misused and misdirected, away from the people to foreign bank accounts of the rich and powerful (ironically, in the very banks of the donor nations). and on the other hand, by paying back the principal as well as the interest on the

they have also been training militants in the tibet region from where they force them to cause instability in China. the Us has always encouraged a working relationship between afghanistan and Pakistan in counter-terrorism. the MoU thus was always kept under the wary eye of the Us which would monitor and tailor it to its full advantage.

With the nDs-isi deal in place along with China’s full backing, a sino-afghan-Pak entente in regional security would certainly be detrimental to Us interests in the region.

What’s next? keeping in view the situation in a holistic manner, one cannot jump to any conclusion where the chicken-game would take the nuclear-armed neighbours.

However, the cautious approach adopted by premier nawaz sharif and the stakes of Us and China in regional peace suggest that things would be back to normal soon with both the world powers playing a positive behind-the-scene role to help diffuse the situation.

However, if the situation is not handled in time, things may get out of hands of any side. While indians are making hostile statements, extremist forces in Pakistan are getting a rebirth and anti-india sentiments are high. all political, religious and pro or anti military political and social outfits are joining anti-india bandwagon.

Co-chairman PPP asif Zardari, who once had a balanced approach to relation with india, has also joined anti-india chorus. Popular politicians like imran khan have already accused Premier Modi for inciting regional discord. if things are not handled properly, hawks on both sides of the line of control may push their respective governments into a naked war. But if it’s a war between india and Pakistan, it would not be conventional, rather it would be nuclear as in words of Chaudhry shujaat, these (nukes) have not been made for celebrations only. it is time for the world powers to jump in and help diffuse the situation which may lead into a nuclear conflict anytime. if it happens, God forbid, it may be a total elimination of the subcontinent. g

debt that they did not spend. the government of Pakistan should take it as its priority number one to retire all outstanding debt in order to generate enough resources to spend on the social and economic uplift of the country through human development, economic growth and investing in research and technological development. the donor nations should also fulfil their commitments to the people of Pakistan by retiring their part of the debt that was misused or embezzled by subsequent rulers and administrative elite in Pakistan, so that the burden of the people would be eased and an era of sustainability and social prosperity might commence with their economic and scientific help. those who have misused the funds should be taken to task, in whatever nation they may reside for the time being in accordance with local and international laws, so that the plundered wealth of the country can be returned to the rightful owners – the people of Pakistan. the entire process needs negotiations and agreements on principal between the government of Pakistan and the donors under a mutually agreed formulae. g

C M YK

Sunday, 14 - 20 June, 2015

opiNioN

The case for new urban centres in Pakistan Need of a holistic and evidence-based national urban policy Dr Nasir JaveD The writer is CEO Urban Unit and has wide experience in various government departments. He is a Chevening scholar and graduate in MBA from University of Wales, Cardiff, and holds graduate degrees in medical sciences and law as well.

P

akistan is the fastest urbanising country in the region. With almost 1.8 per cent natural growth and equal rural–urban and urban–urban migration, the pressure on cities is mounting. as usually the case in developing countries, most of this burden is on the large or primate cities, of which there are almost nine in Pakistan.

Consider this — 3.5 per cent growth in a country of almost 200 million population; that translates into actual numbers of almost five to seven million new urbanites every year, almost twice the size of Rawalpindi city. Futuristically speaking, in the next 20 years, the urban population is going to more than double. Most of this population is accommodated in the existing city areas, which are becoming dense and adding to the slums and kachi abadis. in fact, the ratio of slums in large cities is increasing and as per studies carried out by the Un Habitat, Pakistan has one of the poorest track records in lump gradation figures. this grim situation calls for an urgent and well-planned action.

Moreover, Pakistan is among the youngest countries in the world, with at least half its population below the age of 30; these demographics are likely to stay for at least the next 25 years. the 21st century is the era of cities. a considerable part of the GDP from countries is contributed by urban centres, and i quote Jane Jacobs here, “Wealth of the nations is the sum total of the wealth of the cities”. according to Mckinsey, the 600 urban centres of the world generate almost 60 per cent of the global GDP and this share is on the rise. Currently this is evoking primarily from the larger cities in the developed world; this is shifting fast towards the developing world and its intermediate cities. thus, Pakistan is in dire need of a holistic and evidence-based national urban policy and strategy to harness the dividend of this once-in-a lifetime opportunity. Urbanisation, a transition from the rural to the urban, has different characteristics in the 21st century, compared with that era when Europe and america were undergoing industrialisation. We exist in the era of knowledge-based economies with the services sector overtaking manufacturing in terms of share in the GDP. according to the Pakistan Economic survey Report, services make up almost 55 per cent of the total share. these three key statistics are prime determinants for our future policy framework. the framework development process must include a way of predicting, planning and

managing this urbanisation in order to convert it into opportunity, rather than a disaster, which it has the potential to become, if allowed a free fall — with slums, ghettoes, unemployment, crime and chaos. if we are able to develop productive urban centres built around the idea of a knowledge-based economy with skilled workforce, offering high quality social services, out cities have immense potential to renovate the developing economy to one that is holistically developed. additionally, there is another area that needs change in direction and mindset. While designing the model for new cities, the usual development mantra of ‘FDi and export-led growth’, is the most common advice from policymakers and stakeholders.

However, that is not the absolute truth. the demand for FDi is palpable; brain drain is an economic tragedy of the future and may be directly linked. Each year, thousands of students move abroad for higher education with an approximate drainage cost of Rs10 million per student. so how do we retain the crux of our student leadership to acquire local higher education and produce a direct return for Pakistan? in addition, meeting the demands of the ever-increasing population is a right step forward into the new cities of the future. i need not count the number of people living without water, clothing, medicine, good quality food, education, housing, entertainment, etc. these are all industries that need to be established.

While we strive to set up exportoriented industries to meet the nutritional needs of Europe or Middle East, my own people are hungry and undernourished. Can we first focus on meeting the needs of Pakistan? the nation continues to suffer from health hazards and thus, we need to set up an industrial health zone where pure and affordable medicines could be produced for Pakistan, since most of the available medicine is adulterated. the low quality of healthcare is known to all in Pakistan. Patients are travelling to even india for surgeries and thousands of Pakistani doctors are working abroad. in Peshawar, there are some good hospitals where afghans are treated and charged in dollars. the availability of good and affordable healthcare is a key priority for all.

Other service industries that can be regarded as cash cows include tourism and hospitality. Direct returns from domestic tourism catering to a population of 200 million, can sustain new facilities and provide people with entertainment opportunities that do not just include the usual dining out at restaurants. these are just a few examples. new and restructured serviceoriented facilities in the new city would generate increased employment opportunities and subsequent improvement in living standards and a strengthened emerging new middle class; there are still 150 million people lacking these basic facilities in my country. My ideas involve strategising at the country level, and milking in-house opportunities, rather than looking outside for foreign investment and interest. a nationalistic, local approach is the need of the hour for future developments in urban centres to become real engines of growth. g­

reconstruction of our education system The need to reset our worldview my view, can be helpful for producing fresh thinking in our educational institutions.

Moreover, what makes the West advance is not raw intellect but their commitment to reason, research, duty, discipline, and open debate. Constant engagement makes them informed and better than others in research, technology, development, and policy making. in the West, academia informs the policy making process through press coverage and consultation. in our country, however, the The writer is a lawyer of the High Courts academia is rarely consulted by policymakers. in Pakistan, focusing on fundamental rights litigation. He is presently a and our policies (including educational Visiting Scholar at SOAS, University of policies) are generally motivated by shortLondon, UK. He can be contacted at: term political objectives. zranjahlaw@gmail.com. at the same time, some people think that the present in the West may be the future of the non-West. in my opinion, ideas like DUCatiOn is the bedrock for the ‘secularism’, ‘enlightenment’, and ‘liberalism’ development of any country. strong cannot simply be transplanted in a different education systems produce men of soil. these concepts require space for vision, men of character, and men evolution and the recognition of different of letters, not merely ‘men of religious, social, economic, and cultural degrees’. Unfortunately, our education system realities in true spirit of democracy. i believe is producing worthless degrees. thus, we are that every ethnicity, religion and community falling behind other nations in knowledge and (national or even post-national) can maintain, research. We witness invention of every kind evolve, and present its ‘distinctive in the developed countries. We seem to have consciousness’ while appreciating the values no other option except to borrow or beg of the others. in my opinion, humans should technology and even medicines from others. learn and accommodate others’ views. they notwithstanding the axact fake degree scam, do not need any attachment to the many institutions in Pakistan are allegedly unshakeable beliefs, ideas, ideologies, or awarding procedurally genuine but factually ideocracy presented to them by others. the fake degrees as majority of the degree holders notions of history, origins, culture, values, are like blind followers of dead letters. the customs, norms, beliefs, normality, truth, students generally memorise text without nature, authenticity, development, stability, critically analysing the ideas and concepts and and consensus evolve; these notions can be even without understanding the meaning of challenged in the light of knowledge acquired the text. in a race for getting degrees, one who over the process of human civilisation. i do gets the degree wins the rat race and instead of not mean that every notion and narrative is wining that race still remains a rat. so, we have totally false; rather, i think there should acute shortage of genuine social and natural always be kept a space for evolution as science scholars in Pakistan. and, some humans cannot claim finality in their efforts scholars that we have prefer serving abroad or ideas. so, we need to construct and due to lack of academic reconstruct our worldview culture and political with reading, reflection, victimisation in our and constant critique. and ‘We continue to fail to learn educational institutions. that construction seems from the developments in We continue to fail to impossible without learn from the other parts of the world reconstruction of our developments in other education system. and seem to ignore parts of the world and seem Finally, a true teachings of our ancestors’ to ignore teachings of our education system teaches ancestors. We have failed tolerance. it develops an to comprehend iqbal’s ‘ethics of engagement’ and philosophy of ‘self’ as well as sayyed’s passion appreciation of historical, religious, and for education and intellectual pluralism. cultural differences to develop an ‘overlapping iqbal’s ‘self’ demands a recurrent evolution in world view’ providing peace and prosperity for knowledge and morality to strengthen society. mankind. With this optimism, i offer the and sayyed sees a wide-open quest for following specific suggestions for Pakistan: knowledge as a virtue. instead of developing First, we must improve our education this ‘self’ and ‘quest’ for the progress of system from the primary school to the human thought, we have developed a certain university level. syllabi should be revised to anxiety about free ideas and a thirst for include topics like pluralism, civic life, ethics, materialism. in fact, we lack in the values basic health, legal rights, etc. the students envisioned by iqbal, sayyed, and Jinnah and should be involved in leaning activity. thus rarely find a restless, self-advancing, selftraditional lecture system should be replaced improving, optimistic, rational, confident, and with open discussion and advance reading. idealistic individual – a person who believes Excessive photocopying from books and notes in constant evolution, progress, and change in should be discouraged. Exams should test the oneself and one’s society. basic skills of reading, writing, analysis, On the other hand, one can see a high level thinking, and not mere memory. of debate and intellectual engagement in second, we need to promote intellectual universities like Oxford, Cambridge and dialogue on important issues (e.g., extremism, Harvard. Universities in developed countries electoral reforms, law and order, development, focus on creativity and original research. they etc.) in our educational institutions. these introduce students to a variety of views and debates should be publicised through media. encourage them to apply and appreciate these keeping in view the resources and security, ideas in different contexts. the students can tele-conferences should be arranged amongst challenge these ideas and differ with their scholars from around the world and findings teachers. they can challenge conventional of these debates should be circulated at every wisdom in every discipline i.e., religion, level in national and local languages. culture, health, history, politics, business, third, our media should present music, nanotechnology, crime, fashion, etc. intellectually rich, coherent, and clear the people consider that ideas cannot freeze discussions regarding educational reforms and and events are contextualised in time and other matters of national interest. Researchers, space so they can be revised and/or better technocrats, and academia should be provided understood employing philosophical, scientific, more space on electronic and print media to theological, and psychological knowledge of the address long-term national issues i.e., present time. this perception of knowledge, in reconstruction of our education system. g

Zia Ullah raNJha

e

www.pakistantoday.com.pk 09

C M YK

interview: Saeed Ghani

‘SharifS have learnt little from hiStory’ Extraordinary situations demand extraordinary decisions from leaders

by mian abrar

t

he political situation in Islamabad, and indeed the rest of the count, remains interesting and intriguing. Operation Zarb-e-Azb has completed one year. And though there has been much to cheer – terrorist infrastructure smashed, etc – the enemy has displayed enough resolve to regroup and keep the government on its toes.

Questions have also begun doing the rounds about the kind of information filtering from Waziristan. And how long it will take for the operation to make its way properly down to main cities?

On the political front the judicial commission runs its course and allegations and counter allegations of rigging continue to surface here and there. The PPP is also reposturing, once again. Bilawal is back in play again. And soon the hierarchy is expected in Punjab to revive party fortunes. To make sense of these trends, and more things, DNA talked exclusively to Senator Saeed Ghani, a rising star in the Peoples Party.

Question: How would you evaluate one year of Zarb-e-Azb? Do you think it has gone some way in achieving the objective or is there any credibility to doubts that not enough information has filtered to the media?

Saeed Ghani: After completion of the first year of

10 www.pakistantoday.com.pk

Operation Zarb-e-Azb, it is heartening to note a drastic decline in the incidents of terrorism across the country.

Moreover, the areas under control of the terrorists have also been reclaimed by the army, which is another positive sign. however, since there are no independent sources to confirm the claims made by the army, we can’t make a judgment.

The only source of information we do have is the press releases issued by the

‘If you collect crime data of this year from all the four provinces and compare it with previous three or four years, you would find a major decline in the crime rate’ inter-services public relations (ISPR) which are of course satisfactory. But it is another fact that one year has passed since the operation was launched, which is quite a period for our soldiers to completely uproot the terrorist network, which is still not achieved. This however is alarming for us.

Q. When do you expect the operation to move to urban areas and apprehend extremist militant in cities?

Also, what are your thoughts on links of certain political

parties with outlawed groups, especially in Punjab? And does that affect the overall aim of the operation?

SG: I think provincial governments have done a lot of hard work to dismantle terrorists’ hideouts and smash their networks, especially in major cities and provincial capitals. If you collect crime data of this year from all the four provinces and compare it with previous three or four years, you would find a major decline in the crime rate.

Specifically, there is a major improvement in Sindh in general and Karachi in particular. Sindh police have been successful is not only pre-empting major terrorist attacks but they have also resolved major terrorist cases besides apprehending the masterminds of those incidents.

Yes, there is a major contribution from the Rangers who are also helping a lot in this regard but the lead role has been played by Sindh police.

While on the contrary, Punjab police have been banking on issuing mere press releases rather than pre-empting terrorist attacks or smashing terrorist networks. The level of crackdown against criminals we have seen in Sindh has not been matched in Punjab.

Q: How do you see the recent press release issued by the DG-Rangers, which is being described as a ‘chargesheet’ against the Sindh government? Why did the

Karachi operation stop after MQM? We were told it would be ‘all encompassing’. Do you think there’s more to come?

SG: It is unfortunate to see such press releases being issued.

The institutions should work within their respective domains and they should not cross limits.

The press release you have mentioned is, I suppose, about the apex committee meeting held on June 4. Now issuing a statement after almost eight days of the meeting is beyond comprehension.

‘When the PPP took over, we had to face seven critical challenges which are not being faced by the PML-N government’ The Rs230 billion worth of ill gotten money the DG-Rangers referred to is, I suppose, about the money grabbed by Mafias working in the city. Now, everyone who has been to Karachi and lived here knows about these groups. I suppose if the Rangers head wanted to inform the masses, there should have been more details. The things he shared are already known to the people here in Karachi.

So there should have been more credible evidence which the Rangers DG might have shared with the media or the

government itself. But if the objective of the officer was to create an impression that all this is happening and the Sindh government is doing nothing about it, one may raise some questions.

First, these Mafias are not newborn and rather they have been active in the city for decades. So one may ask whether they have emerged after the PPP was elected to power or were they working for years? Who nurtured these vultures? The PPP is ready for accountability of its tenure but we also want other institutions and political parties to answer for their responsibilities and acts.

Q. How do you see the sudden ‘silence’ of PPP’s disgruntled leader Dr Zulfiqar Mirza? People say there is a deal between Dr Mirza and PPP’s high command. Do you think there is any behind-thescenes effort through a ruler of a friendly country for a truce?

SG: Let me make it clear once and for all that there is no deal whatsoever with Dr Mirza.

Actually, the court has silenced him. A case was filed in the court and Dr Mirza gave a commitment not to use foul language. however, when he again violated his commitment, Madame Faryal Talpur filed a contempt petition with the court which had again summoned Dr Mirza. Now he has again assured the court to remain silent.

C M YK

Sunday, 14 - 20 June, 2015

I believe after his badmouthing, there is no way left for a reconciliation with Zulfiqar Mirza. His political career is over.

Now it’s better for him to seek mercy, offer apologies and lead a quiet life.

Q. How does the PPP plan to remobilise in areas where it suffered in the ’13 election? Zardari sb tried to get the ball rolling in Punjab twice, with little success. Is there another plan?

SG: As far as the public mobilisation in Punjab by PPP is concerned, let me tell you that soon PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari would visit the province.

He will hold rallies, meet PPP workers and would also mobilise them. That is the plan.

Q. What can we expect from Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari this time? Is he going to pay a more direct role in managing the party or is he still, as the co-chairman said, in his learning phase?

SG: Yes, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari will spend more time in Punjab in future. There is no issue with his ankle now and he is fit, I suppose. He will play a key role in Punjab. He will soon visit Punjab.

Q. Your party dismissed the recent federal budget as anti-poor. Your thoughts please?

SG: Coming to the federal budget 2015-16, it was anti-poor and it’s not a mere rhetoric. Let me remind you that the PML-N

‘Yes, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari will spend more time in Punjab in future.

There is no issue with his ankle now and he is fit, I suppose. He will play a key role in Punjab. He will soon visit Punjab’

takes pride in claiming that it has a good economic team. However, soon after taking over the reins form the caretaker government in 2013, they claimed that since the exchequer was empty, they could not do anything with the budget.

In next year’s budget speech, the finance minister claimed to stabilise the economy so no relief was given to masses. But again this year, no relief was given to the poor while all financial targets they themselves had set for this year were missed, according to their own reports.

Now, when the PPP took over, we had to face seven critical challenges which are not being faced by the PML-N government.

We had to face a global recession; we were being torpedoed by Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry; a major media group was against the PPP and every day a cut-off date was given by media for our government’s fall; Sindhi nationalist parties had ganged up against the PPP; and

also terrorism was at its peak while energy crisis was also hitting new records. Moreover, we also had to face flash floods and other natural calamities.

Now, the PML-N government did not face any of these challenges. But still they are unable to deliver the goods to the people despite the fact that the oil prices are 50 percent lower than what we had to face. When the PPP was in power, we had to purchase one ton of furnace oil for Rs90,000 which is now available for Rs45,000. So we could not manage the required furnace oil to get the installed capacity of electricity.

But despite low prices, PMLN is unable to get the installed capacity of electricity. Moreover, they have also not brought in 50 percent cut in the electricity price which should have been done. So, rather than passing on relief to the masses, the government decided to bag more money.

Rather, they are cursing the 50 percent less oil prices, saying that it leads to lesser revenue in terms of electricity bills.

This is despite the fact that the PML-N has increased general sales tax (GST) from 17 percent to 35 percent.

Moreover, despite all the challenges we faced, we always gave major relief to the public servants by increasing the salaries of government employees. On the contrary, the PML-N government refused to increase even a penny in their first and second year.

Even this year, they have reluctantly incorporated an increase of 7.5 percent in salaries, which is just a joke.

Actually, the poor are not their priority and they only look after the interests of filthy rich.

Neither are farmers a priority for the PML-N government, nor peasants, labourers, orphans or the poor. They have no intention of improving the lives of the poor and rather their focus is on improving the lives of their close relatives and friends. The only priority for them is to relax duty on import of airplanes. They have

‘But despite low prices, PML-N is unable to get the installed capacity of electricity. Moreover, they have also not brought in 50 percent cut in the electricity price which should have been done. So, rather than passing on relief to the masses, the government decided to bag more money. Rather, they are cursing the 50 percent less oil prices, saying that it leads to lesser revenue in terms of electricity bills’

badly ignored the agriculture reforms while the PPP’s focus always remained farmers, poor, labourers and government employees.

Q. How would you rate the Sharifs’ third time in power? Most analysts say they have learnt little from their two previous misadventures. Yet they continue to survive and thrive. How do you feel about this term?

SG: I agree that Sharifs have learnt little from history. When a country is faced with an extraordinary situation, you have to make extraordinary decisions.

Pakistan today faces a huge challenge and to get the country out of this quagmire, there is a need to take along the people and mobilise them.

But Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has a problem — he interacts with a very few people and mostly remains aloof. There is a flaw in his basic approach towards resolving issues. He does not share his feelings or thoughts.

You can’t resolve such huge challenges by consulting only with your friends, relatives and cronies. Even those very close to him are pessimistic about the future.

I think the prime minister needs to get out of his shackles and get the country out of this quagmire of challenges. He needs to take all the political parties on same page to devise a cohesive strategy. g www.pakistantoday.com.pk 11

C M YK

iNTERNATiONAl

The economic consequences of austerity

The judgements of our financial and political leaders are breathtakingly narrow. Nobel Prize-winning economist Amartya Sen considers the alternatives

AMARTYA SEN New StateSmaN This is an edited version of a lecture delivered by Amartya Sen at the Charleston Festival in Firle, East Sussex.

O

n 5 June 1919, John Maynard Keynes wrote to the prime minister of Britain, David Lloyd George, “I ought to let you know that on Saturday I am slipping away from this scene of nightmare. I can do no more good here.” Thus ended Keynes’s role as the official representative of the British Treasury at the Paris Peace Conference. It liberated Keynes from complicity in the Treaty of Versailles (to be signed later that month), which he detested.

Why did Keynes dislike a treaty that ended the state of war between Germany and the Allied Powers (surely a good thing)?

Keynes was not, of course, complaining about the end of the world war, nor about the need for a treaty to end it, but about the terms of the treaty – and in particular the suffering and the economic turmoil forced on the defeated enemy, the Germans, through imposed austerity.

Austerity is a subject of much contemporary interest in Europe – I would like to add the word “unfortunately” somewhere in the sentence. Actually, the book that Keynes wrote attacking the treaty, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, was very substantially about the economic consequences of “imposed austerity”. Germany had lost the battle already, and the treaty was about what the defeated enemy would be required to do, including what it should have to pay to the victors. The terms of this Carthaginian peace, as Keynes saw it (recollecting the Roman treatment of the defeated Carthage following the Punic wars), included the imposition of an unrealistically huge burden of reparation on Germany – a task that Germany could not carry out without ruining its economy. As the terms also had the effect of fostering animosity between the victors and the vanquished and, in addition, would economically do no good to the rest of Europe, Keynes had nothing but contempt for the decision of the victorious four (Britain, France, Italy and the United States) to demand something from Germany that was hurtful for the vanquished and unhelpful for all.

The high-minded moral rhetoric in favour of the harsh imposition of austerity on

12 www.pakistantoday.com.pk

Germany that Keynes complained about came particularly from Lord Cunliffe and Lord Sumner, representing Britain on the Reparation Commission, whom Keynes liked to call “the Heavenly Twins”. In his parting letter to Lloyd George, Keynes added, “I leave the Twins to gloat over the devastation of Europe.” Grand rhetoric on the necessity of imposing austerity, to remove economic and moral impropriety in Greece and elsewhere, may come more frequently these days from Berlin itself, with the changed role of Germany in today’s world. But the unfavourable consequences that Keynes feared would follow from severe – and in his judgement unreasoned – imposition of austerity remain relevant today (with an altered geography of the morally upright discipliner and the errant to be disciplined).

Aside from Keynes’s fear of economic ruin of a country, in this case Germany, through the merciless scheduling of demanded payments, he also analysed the bad consequences on other countries in Europe of the economic collapse of one of their partners. The thesis of economic interdependence, which Keynes would pursue more fully later (including in his most famous book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, to be published in 1936), makes an early appearance in this book, in the context of his critique of the Versailles Treaty.

“An inefficient, unemployed, disorganised Europe faces us,” says Keynes, “torn by internal strife and international hate, fighting, starving, pillaging, and lying.” If some of these problems are visible in Europe today (as I believe to some extent they are), we have to ask: why is this so?

After all, 2015 is not really anything like 1919, and yet why do the same words, taken quite out of context, look as if there is a fitting context for at least a part of them right now?

If austerity is as counterproductive as Keynes thought, how come it seems to deliver electoral victories, at least in Britain? Indeed, what truth is there in the explanatory statement in the Financial Times, aired shortly after the Conservative victory in the general election, and coming from a leading historian, niall Ferguson (who, I should explain, is a close friend – our friendship seems to thrive on our

persistent disagreement): “Labour should blame Keynes for their election defeat.”

If the point of view that Ferguson airs is basically right (and that reading is shared by several other commentators as well), the imposed austerity we are going through is not a useless nightmare (as Keynes’s analysis would make us believe), but more like a strenuous workout for a healthier future, as the champions of austerity have always claimed.

And it is, in this view, a future that is beginning to unfold already in our time, at least in Britain, appreciated by grateful voters. Is that the real story now? And more generally, could “the Heavenly Twins” have been right all along? * * * * * * There are many odd features of the experience of the world since the crisis of 2008, beginning in the United States. One of them is that what began as a clear failure of the market economy (particularly fed by misbehaving financial institutions) soon looked like a problem of the overstretched role of the state. The crisis, when it came, was seen – rightly, I believe – as a failure of the operation of the private financial institutions, and led to a huge demand for reinstating some of the state regulations, particularly of the financial markets, that had been gradually eliminated in the US economy through piecemeal eradication (beginning in the Reagan presidency but continuing

through Democratic administrations). However, after the massive decline in 2008 of financial markets and of business confidence had been halted and to some extent reversed through the intervention of the state, especially through stimulating the economy, often paid for by heavy public borrowing, the state had large debts to deal with. The demand for a smaller government which had begun earlier, led by those who were sceptical of extensive public services and state provision, now became a loud chorus, with political leaders competing with each other in frightening people with the idea that the economy could not but collapse under the burden of public debt.

Similarly, at the international level, the global free fall following the 2008 crisis was largely halted by the move, under the visionary leadership of Gordon Brown, for a meeting of the governments of the newly formed G20 in April 2009 in London, each promising to do its best not to feed the downward spiral by domestic complicity. This turned a page in the history of the crisis successfully, but soon the story changed, with the governments being asked to get out of the way before they ruined healthy business activities.

Turning to the management of debts, suddenly the idea of austerity as a way out for the depressed and heavily indebted economies became the dominant priority of the financial leaders of Europe. Those with an interest in history could easily see in this a reminder of the days of the Great Depression of the 1930s when cutting public expenditure seemed like a solution, rather than a problem. This is, of course, where Keynes made his definitive contribution in his classic book, the General Theory, in 1936.

Keynes ushered in the basic understanding that demand is important as a determinant of economic activity, and that expanding rather than cutting public expenditure may do a much better job of expanding employment and activity in an economy with unused capacity and idle labour. Austerity could do little, since a reduction of public expenditure adds to the

inadequacy of private incomes and market demands, thereby tending to put even more people out of work. There is, of course, more to Keynes’s full theory than that, but the common-sense summary just presented is gist enough.

However, the financial leaders of Europe had a different reading – from Keynes and from a great many mainstream economists – of what was needed, and they were not going to budge from their understanding. As it is quite common these days to blame economists for failing to see the real world, I take this opportunity to note that very few professionally trained economists were persuaded by the direction in which those in charge of European finances decided to take Europe.

The European debacle demonstrated, in effect, that you do not need economists to generate a holy mess: the financial sector can generate its own gory calamity with the greatest of elegance and ease. Further, if the policy of austerity deepened Europe’s economic problems, it did not help in the aimed objective of reducing the ratio of debt to GDP to any significant extent – in fact, sometimes quite the contrary.

If things have started changing, over the past few years, even if quite slowly, it is mainly because Europe has now started to pursue a hybrid policy of somewhat weakened fiscal austerity with monetary expansion. If that is a half-hearted gesture towards Keynes, the results are halfhearted, too.

‘The European debacle demonstrated, in effect, that you do not need economists to generate a holy mess: the financial sector can generate its own gory calamity with the greatest of elegance and ease’ There is, in fact, plenty of evidence in the history of the world that indicates that the most effective way of cutting deficits is to resist recession and to combine deficit reduction with rapid economic growth. The huge deficits after the Second World War were easily tamed with fast economic growth in the postwar years (I will come back to this issue later). Something similar happened during the eight years of Bill Clinton’s presidency of the United States, when Clinton began with a huge deficit and ended with none, thanks largely to rapid economic growth. Again, the much-praised reduction of the Swedish budget deficit during 1994-98 occurred in a period of fairly fast growth of GDP. Despite political deadlocks and a largely nonfunctional Congress, the United States has been much smarter than Europe, on this occasion, in making use of this central understanding. The ratio of deficit to GDP has fallen in the US thanks to economic growth, which – rather than austerity – is of course the well-tried way of achieving the desired result.

C M YK

Sunday, 14 - 20 June, 2015 Had the policy leaders of Europe (adherents of a peculiarly narrow view of financial priority) allowed more public discussion, rather than taking unilateral decisions in secluded financial corridors – encouraging no public discussion – it is possible that the policy errors could have been prevented, through the standard procedures of deliberation, scrutiny and critique. It is remarkable that this has not happened in the continent that gave the world the basic ideas of institutional democracy. The big epistemic failure in missing the lessons of the past on revival, deficit reduction and economic growth is not only a matter of wrong turns taken by the financial leaders, including the European Central Bank, but also of the democratic deficit in Europe today. It is no consolation that most of the governments in the eurozone that deployed the strategy of austerity lost office in public elections that followed. Democracy should be about preventing mistakes through participatory deliberations, rather than about making heads roll after mistakes have been made. This is one of the reasons why John Stuart Mill saw democracy as “government by discussion” (a phrase coined, along Millian lines, by Walter Bagehot), and this demands discussion preceding public decisions, rather than following them. * * * * * * How was it possible, it has to be asked, for the basic Keynesian insights and analyses to be so badly lost in the making of European economic policies that imposed austerity? Some of the dominant figures in the financial world have had a long-standing scepticism of the economic relations on which Keynes focused which is being amended only now, with reality checks being made in observations of the penalty of the neglect of Keynesian relations. The bold plan by the new president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, which we have every reason to welcome, to deliver a trillion euros of “quantitative easing” (not unlike expanding the money supply) – with decisive expansionary effect – is a result of that belated recognition which is slowly changing the European Central Bank: that expansion rather than contraction is what the economy needs.

If failing to understand some basic Keynesian relations is a part of the explanation of what happened, there was also another, and more subtle, story behind the confounded economics of austerity.

There was an odd confusion in policy thinking between the real need for institutional reform in Europe and the imagined need for austerity – two quite different things. There can be little doubt that Europe has needed, for quite some time, many serious institutional reforms – from the avoidance of tax evasion and the fixing of more reasonable retiring ages to sensible working hours and the elimination of institutional rigidities, including those in the labour markets. But the real (and strong) case for institutional reform has to be distinguished from an imagined case for indiscriminate austerity, which does not do anything to change a system while hugely inflicting pain.

Through the bundling of the two together as a kind of chemical compound, it became very difficult to advocate reform without simultaneously cutting public expenditure all around. And this did not serve the cause of reform at all.

This is a simple enough point, and it is surprising how difficult it has proved to be to get this across.

I have to confess to humbling

failure in making an impact on the policymakers through my efforts on this by addressing the European Commission, the IMF, the Bank for International Settlements, and joint meetings of the World Bank and the OECD, starting in the summer of 2009.

An analogy can help to make the point clearer: it is as if a person had asked for an antibiotic for his fever, and been given a mixed tablet with antibiotic and rat poison. You cannot have the antibiotic without also having the rat poison. We were in effect being told that if you want economic reform then you must also have, along with it, economic austerity, although there is absolutely no reason whatsoever why the two must be put together as a chemical compound. For example, having sensible retiring ages, which many European countries do not (a much-needed institutional reform), is not similar to cutting severely the pensions on which the lives of the working poor may depend (a favourite of austeritarians). The compounding of the two – not least in the demands made on Greece – has made it much harder to pursue institutional reforms. And the shrinking of the Greek economy under the influence mainly of austerity has created the most unfavourable circumstances possible for bold institutional reforms.

Another counterproductive consequence of the policy of imposed austerity and the resulting joblessness, for Keynesian reasons, has been the loss of productive power – and over time the loss of skill as well – resulting from continued unemployment of the young. The rate of youth unemployment is astonishingly high in many European countries today; more than half the young people in Greece have never experienced having a job. The very process of the formation of human capability, on which Adam Smith put emphasis as the real engine of economic success and human progress, has been quite badly mishandled through the tying together of uncalled for austerity (which no country really needed) with necessary reform (which many European countries did need).

More than 200 years ago, Adam Smith specified with much clarity in The Wealth of Nations how to judge the good functioning of a well-run economy. Good political economy, Smith argued, has to have “two distinct objects”: “first, to provide a plentiful revenue or subsistence for the people, or more properly to enable them to provide such a revenue or subsistence for themselves; and secondly, to supply the state or commonwealth with a revenue sufficient for the publick services”.

The father of modern economics, and the pioneering champion of the market system, did not have any doubt why the role of the state fits integrally into the demands of a good society.

‘Good political economy, Adam Smith argued, has to have “two distinct objects”: “first, to provide a plentiful revenue or subsistence for the people, or more properly to enable them to provide such a revenue or subsistence for themselves; and secondly, to supply the state or commonwealth with a revenue sufficient for the publick services”’

Public reasoning over generations has increasingly vindicated and supported Adam Smith’s broad vision. There are good reasons to think that it would have done the same today had open and informed public dialogue been given a proper chance, rather than being ruled out by the alleged superiority of the judgements of financial leaders, with their breathtakingly narrow view of human society and a basic lack of interest in the demands of a deliberative democracy. * * * * * * It is certainly true that the policy of austerity has been advertised as the reason behind the comparative success of the British economy. This comparison is, however, with Europe, which has been in a bigger hole than Britain, with a more vigorous imposition of austerity, particularly in some countries (Greece is of course the extreme example of that – with the big shrinking of its economy, rather than having economic growth). The relatively positive growth in recent years does not make Britain’s overall experience of growth over the period of austerity particularly impressive, if we look beyond Europe. Not only is the priceadjusted GDP per capita in Britain today still lower than what it was before the crisis in 2008, but also, in the period of recovery from the low of 2009, GDP per capita has risen far more slowly in the UK than in the US and Japan (not to mention some of the faster-growing Asian economies).

Could the British voters, then, have missed the real story? That is possible, and I shall come to that possibility presently, but the voting figures do not quite bring out a groundswell of approval in favour of austerity. There is no question that Labour had a severely bad election, and has lost ground, not just in Scotland, and must rethink its priorities as well as strategies quite radically. But the parties forming the coalition government – the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats – had support from more than 59 per cent of the total vote in the election before last in 2010 (that is, before they sprang the surprise of austerity on the British public); yet the coalition parties together have managed to get only around 45 per cent in this election – after the experience of austerity. Not quite a heady success for the vote-getting ability of austerity. The Tories did get a clear

majority of seats on their own (and have good reason to celebrate that outcome), but this achievement came with only 37 per cent of the votes. The success here is just like that of the Hindutva-oriented BJP in India in the elections last year, when it got 31 per cent of the ballots cast but a substantial majority of parliamentary seats. Before we start getting our economic theories from the reading of election results, we have to scrutinise a bit more the message that comes through from the votes and the seats in the constituency-based electoral systems that the UK and, following it, India happen to have.

What is not in doubt, however, is that the general public in the UK, following the crisis of 2008, has become increasingly nervous about the size of the public debt and also about the ratio of public debt to GDP. What is overlooked here is that while a national debt may have many costs (and it is not paranoiac to keep tracking it), it is not quite like an individual person’s debt, which is owed to someone else (someone quite different). An internal national debt is mainly owed to another person in the same economy. Figures of seemingly large public debt may be handy enough to frighten a population with imagined stories of ruining the future generations, but the analysis of public debt demands more critical thinking than that, rather

‘An analogy can help to make the point clearer: it is as if a person had asked for an antibiotic for his fever, and been given a mixed tablet with antibiotic and rat poison. You cannot have the antibiotic without also having the rat poison. We were in effect being told that if you want economic reform then you must also have, along with it, economic austerity, although there is absolutely no reason whatsoever why the two must be put together as a chemical compound’

than drawing on a misleading analogy with private indebtedness.

There are two distinct issues here. First, even if we want to reduce public debt quickly, austerity is not a particularly effective way of achieving this (which the European and British experiences confirm).

For that, we need economic growth; and austerity, as Keynes noted, is essentially anti-growth. Second, what is also important to note is that while panic may be easy to generate, the existence of panic does not show that there is reason for panic. No less importantly, the public has not always been scared stiff by the size of the public debt.

The public debt-to-GDP ratio was very considerably larger in Britain in every year for two decades, from the mid-1940s to the mid-1960s, than it has been at any time since the crisis of 2008. And yet there was no panic then (when Britain was confidently establishing the welfare state), in contrast to the confused anxiety, not to mention the orchestrated fear, that seems to run down the spine of the terrorised British today, making austerity look like a fitting response.

When Britain went for pioneering the welfare state and established the National Health Service, among other ways of expanding the public services, with Aneurin Bevan inaugurating the Park Hospital in Manchester on 5 July 1948, the ratio of debt to GDP was larger than 200 per cent, much more than twice what it has been at any point in recent years. Had the British public been as successfully frightened about the debt ratio in those days, the NHS would never have been born, and the great experiment of having a welfare state in Europe (from which the whole world from China, Korea and Singapore to Brazil and Mexico would learn) would not have found a foothold. A decade later, when Harold Macmillan, as a buoyant new prime minister, told the British people in July 1957 that they had “never had it so good”, the size of government debt was more than 120 per cent of GDP – immensely higher than the ratio of roughly 70 per cent in 2010 when Gordon Brown was accused of mortgaging Britain’s future by profligacy.

The scare was not there from the late 1940s through the 1960s, with Labour as well as Conservative governments in office, perhaps because the scarers were more scarce then. And armed with good public services and a flourishing market economy, Britain steadily reduced its debt-to-GDP ratio through economic growth, while establishing the welfare state and a huge array of new public services.

Public knowledge and understanding are indeed central to the ability of a democratic government to make good policies.

The Economic Consequences of the Peace ends by pointing to the connection between epistemology and politics, and arguing that we can make a difference to the world only by (in Keynes’s words) “setting in motion those forces of instruction and imagination which change opinion”. The last sentence in the book affirmed his hope: “To the formation of the general opinion of the future I dedicate this book.” In that dedication, there is enlightenment as well as optimism, both of which we strongly need today. g Amartya Sen is professor of economics and philosophy at Harvard and won the 1998 Nobel Prize for economics. He is the inaugural winner of the Charleston-EFG John Maynard Keynes Prize and the author of many books, including “The Idea of Justice” (Penguin). www.pakistantoday.com.pk 13

C M YK

Sunday, 14 - 20 June, 2015

oPInIon

A smart new Washington project Public opinion matters WAShIngTon WATch

Dr JAMeS J ZogBy

The writer is President, Arab American Institute, Washington.

I

was asked by the Atlantic Council to appear at the launch of their “Middle east Strategy Task Force” (MeST) to present a report on how Arab public opinion views the challenges facing their region as well as their assessment of the role the United States can play in addressing these concerns. The goal of the MeST, according to co-chairs, former secretary of state, Madeleine Albright and former national security advisor, Stephen Hadley, will be to develop a long-term US strategy to assist the Middle east achieve stability and prosperity.

One might take a jaded view that this is just another election year effort by a Washington-based “think tank” to develop a policy paper that will, in the end, be nothing more than a restatement of conventional wisdom and existing policy. What, I believe, however, sets the Atlantic Council project apart is the stated resolve of the co-chairs to ground their work in the attitudes and needs of the Arab people. Instead of projecting policies developed in Washington for the people of the region, the MeST intends, as its starting point, to ascertain what the people of the region say they need and then craft policies that meld America’s interests and capacity with Arab aspirations.

As evidence of their seriousness, MeST has formed five working groups — two of which are headed by respected Arab American scholars and composed, in equal measure, of American, european, and Arab academics and analysts. The recommendations of the working groups will be considered in the task force’s final report.

It was impressive that the launch event itself began with a compelling “vox populi” video produced by Sky news Arabia featuring interviews with men and women from Tunis, Cairo, Beirut, and Ramallah. In turn, the interviewees spoke of their aspirations and frustrations for themselves and their countries. That set the stage for the main part of the launch — a review of Arab public opinion.

I titled my presentation “Confounded, Lacking Confidence, and Conflicted”, three terms which I felt described Arab attitudes toward the traumatic changes that have rocked the region; the Arab loss of faith in the capacity of the United States to “do the right thing” when it comes to intervention in Arab affairs; and despite this, the continuing strong desire of the Arab public to maintain good relations with the United States.

Our polling shows that Arab opinion is largely confounded when it comes to assessing the region’s current crises.

They know where they want to be, but they don’t know how to get there. Poll after poll of egyptians, for example, demonstrates that they want jobs, improved educational opportunities, and a better health care system. They also rank ending corruption as an

14 www.pakistantoday.com.pk

important concern. In short, they want a clean government that delivers services and meets their needs. What confounds them is: how to get there.

Iraqis want much the same from their government. Strong majorities of all Iraqi sub-groups reject ISIS and also express concern with growing Iranian influence. They do not want their country to fragment and they want the central government to represent and provide for the well-being of all Iraqis: but they do not know how to get there.

We find similar attitudes when the Arab World looks at Syria. In equal measure, majorities reject ISIS, al Qaeda, and the regime in Damascus.

They also express deep concern with the prospect that Syria may fragment into sectarian entities. And because they do not support Western-led military intervention in Syria to defeat ISIS, the question remains: how to get from where they are to where they want to be.

An obvious concern that must be confronted by any American effort to consider policy options is the Arab publics’ conflicted attitude toward the United States. What comes through in our polling is the fact that while Arabs have strongly favourable views toward the American people, values, culture, and products, they deeply resent American policy toward the region.

When we ask Arabs to name the “greatest threats to peace and stability” in their region, in every poll we have conducted during the past 15 years, the top ranked threats are the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict and “US interference in the Arab World”. This, of course, is to be expected, given the disastrous and failed war in Iraq and continued one-sided US support for Israel.

When we ask Arabs, in repeated polls, to identify the areas where they feel the US can be most helpful, they will suggest aiding in job creation, and providing assistance to improve education and health care. But on the top of the list will also be “resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict”. In other instances, however, Arabs will tell us, point blank, “leave us alone”. This is the definition of being conflicted. even with this disturbing disconnect, Arabs do not want to write off the US. When we ask “how important is it that your country has good relations with the US”, substantial majorities in every country say that good relations are important. And yet there is obvious disappointment and continuing lack of trust and confidence in America’s ability to deliver. Arabs believe that the US has the capacity: to end the Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands, to help end the war in Syria, and to help make positive changes in their region. At the same time, while they are troubled by the fact that the US has not acted to effect any of these concerns, they also worry about the choices the US will make if it does choose to act.

I have long argued that public opinion matters. Any American effort to successfully engage the Arab World must listen to what Arabs are saying — even when we don’t like what we are hearing. And any effort to assist the region must be demand-driven. Given the lack of confidence, and the confounded and conflicted attitudes that prevail, finding solutions and projecting meaningful policy changes will be like threading a needle. But because MeST has made a consideration of Arab opinion the starting point of its effort, I am optimistic that this Albright/Hadley project may succeed, where others have failed. g

The necessity of Iraqi Sunni independence Another way of looking at it Dr Alon Ben-MeIr

The writer is a professor of international relations at the Centre for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

E-mail: alon@alonben-meir.com

o

ne of the main prerequisites to defeating ISIS in Iraq is to determine the political future of Sunni Iraqis. As long as they do not know what the future has in store for them, they have no reason to put their mind and soul into the fight against ISIS. The Sunnis are not prepared to make all the needed sacrifices only to benefit the Shi’a government in Baghdad, which they reject and despise even more than ISIS. The Obama administration must begin, concurrently with the fight against ISIS, to negotiate the future status of the Sunni Iraqis.

For the White House to believe that Iraq will somehow be stitched together following the defeat of ISIS is a gross illusion, as Iraq’s partition into three states was de facto established immediately following the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Having lost their dominance of Iraq to the Shi’as in 2003 after 81 years of continuous rule, the Sunnis still refuse to accept what they consider to be a historic travesty. This was further aggravated by eight years of the Shi’a government led by nouri al-Maliki, who abused his power and marginalised, mistreated, and victimised the Sunni community.

The fact that the coalition of more than a dozen countries, led by the US, to battle ISIS from the air and ground has thus far failed is due to a lack of a comprehensive strategy to defeat ISIS, as well as the absence of the Iraqi Sunnis’ commitment to fight it, which occupies much of their three provinces.

The Sunnis find themselves inadvertently and often voluntarily supporting ISIS as they are more religiously aligned with ISIS than with the Shi’a majority, who are determined to maintain exclusive governance over all of Iraq.

The presumed unity government in Iraq that the US sought is a farce. There is no unity; Prime Minister Abadi is weak and has done little to pacify the Sunni community.

Iran continues to exert significant political influence in Baghdad by actively participating in the fight against ISIS through its militia, to which the Sunnis object but the US has quietly acquiesced.

The Sunni Iraqis do not view Iran’s involvement as transient, and learning from their past experience, they will under no circumstances surrender their future to the whims of Tehran, which they consider a staunch enemy.

The Saudis, who are alarmed by Iran’s regional ambitions and its systematic violent meddling in the Arab states’ domestic affairs — in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and many other countries — strongly feel that only by allowing the Sunni Iraqis to establish their own autonomy can they prevent Iran from totally controlling Iraq.

Moreover, given the fact (which the US recognises) that the Iraqi Kurds are on their way to complete independence, it will be impossible to keep the Sunnis at bay. In a recent meeting in DC, President Masoud Barzani of Iraqi Kurdistan publicly declared his intention to move toward independence, which was later confirmed by a top US official as being inevitable.

Although the Kurds suffered greatly

under Saddam Hussein’s Sunni regime, they now see eye-to-eye with the Sunnis as both consider the Shi’a government as hostile and reject the idea of federalism, regardless of how loosely connected it will be to the central government in Baghdad.

The US must now begin a dialogue with the Iraqi government and the Sunni leadership to establish a framework for Iraqi Sunni political autonomy along the Iraqi Kurdish model, which will eventually lead to complete independence.

The central issue that must be incorporated into any agreement on Sunni independence is the equitable distribution of the country’s oil revenue, which would require a strict, internationally guarded, and binding mechanism from the Un Security Council to ensure permanent and full implementation.

The Sunnis need unequivocal assurance that under no circumstances will any Shi’a government withhold distribution of funds and hold the Sunni state hostage without suffering immediate and clearly spelled out political and financial consequences, including sanctions and the suspension of any financial and military aid.

The Iraqi Kurds have already established such a precedent as they currently transfer funds from their independent oil sales to the Iraqi central government. To be sure, the three independent countries will have to work out a formula that will satisfy their legitimate share of oil revenue.

An equitable agreement on sharing oil revenue could also pave the way to better and closer relations between the three states, which will lead to greater cooperation in many other fields, including joint economic development programs, security cooperation, trade, etc.

The Obama administration must now think seriously beyond defeating ISIS and certainly beyond reaching an agreement with Iran about its nuclear program. Iran has the capacity and the intention to disrupt any political arrangement in Iraq that does not serve its interests.

It must be made abundantly clear to Tehran that the US will not tolerate any subversive actions to undermine the welfare and stability of the newly established Sunni state.

To deter Iran from acting mischievously, the US might have to provide security guarantees to the Sunni state, along the line of its commitment to the security of the Iraqi Kurds.

This will also have a serious positive impact on the proxy Sunni-Shi’a war waged both in Syria and Iraq between Saudi Arabia and Iran for regional dominance, which may otherwise last for decades to come.

The lack of a clear American strategy in Iraq to which President Obama recently admitted (“We don’t yet have a complete strategy because it requires commitments on the part of the Iraqis”) is baffling. It raises the question of how the US could engage in a war without having a clear strategy to defeat the enemy, and what the desired outcome should be.

It is not only that the Iraqi troops are not fully trained and combat-ready; even if they were, they will not defeat ISIS on their own, with or without the support of Iranian militias.

This lack of a strategy allowed extremist groups of all political and religious persuasions to converge on Iraq and Syria and take advantage of the chaotic situation that has swept both countries.

It is time for the Obama administration, with its coalition partners, to develop a strategy to defeat ISIS, which of necessity requires the introduction of significant ground troops, assembled from the coalition that will include an American contingent to bring about a swifter defeat of ISIS. Short of this, ISIS will continue to expand its territorial control and become further entrenched, especially in the Sunni provinces, which will make its defeat ever more difficult and costly.

In conjunction with introducing troops, the US must give the Iraqi Sunnis the assurance that their future political independence is secure. g

C M YK

Sunday, 14 - 20 June, 2015

heritage

Badshahi Mosque World’s largest mosque for 313 years!

Nadeem dar The writer is a professional heritage photographer and can be reached at: nadeemdar@hotmail.com

O

n February 20, 1707, died the 88-year old Aurangzeb in Ahmednagar, India, leaving behind a huge empire he had established over 49 years of his rule. Despite the great expansion of the empire, his constant military campaigns and religious intolerance infuriated many of his nobles and courtiers. During his reign the Mughal empire reached its greatest magnitude. This was Abul Muzaffar Muhi-ud-Din Muhammad Aurangzeb, known as Aurangzeb Alamgir, one of the Great Mughals, son of the Emperor Shah Jahan and Mumtaz Mahal, and father of the last Mughal Bahadur Shah Zafar.

Unlike his father, Aurangzeb was not much interested in architecture, rather was known to be of a more ascetic nature and

being religious he encouraged Islamic calligraphy.

What did Aurangzeb leave behind for us? One of the remains is the jewel we treasure today as one of the largest monuments, the Badshahi Mosque in Lahore, which for 313 years was the world’s largest Mosque.

Aurangzeb constructed a small marble mosque known as the Moti Masjid (Pearl Mosque) in the Red Fort in Delhi, a mosque in Banaras and the one in Srinagar is still the largest in Kashmir.

Constructed between 1671 and 1673, under the supervision of Fida’i Khan Koka, Aurangzeb’s brother-in-law and the governor of Lahore, it was originally planned as a site to safeguard a strand of the last Prophet’s (PBUH) hair.

Its magnificence is influenced by the Jama Masjid of Delhi which was built by Shah Jahan.

The mosque was constructed just a few hundred meters to the west of Lahore Fort. The Alamgiri Gate facing the mosque was added to the fort and the space in between, a garden, was used as a parade ground where Aurangzeb would observe his troops. Later the garden was turned into the splendid Hazuri Bagh. The garden was built on a lower level from the mosque to help prevent flooding from the Ravi flowing near it. At present the majestic mosque is a view that attracts thousands of tourists visiting the Fort Road Food Street and Lahore Fort.

‘Constructed between 1671 and 1673, under the supervision of Fida’i Khan Koka, Aurangzeb’s brotherin-law and the governor of Lahore, it was originally planned as a site to safeguard a strand of the last Prophet’s (PBUH) hair’ The exterior of the mosque is decorated with stone carving as well as marble inlay on red sandstone, especially of lotus form motifs in bold relief. The embellishment has Indo-Greek, Central Asian and Indian architectural influence both in technique and motifs. The skyline is furnished by beautiful ornamental merlons inlaid with marble lining, adding grace to the perimeter of the mosque.

Merlons are the solid upright section of a castle parapet.

The huge three sided steps leading to the magnificent gate of the prayer chamber are made of marble. Entering the gate is the vast courtyard. The interior of the mosque has rich ornamentation in stucco tracery and panelling with fresco motifs and marble inlay.

Within the courtyard, the prayer hall features four minarets that duplicate the four minarets at each

corner of the mosque’s outskirts.

The main prayer hall is divided into seven sections by means of multi-foiled arches supported on heavy pillars, three of which bear the white marble double domes.

The remaining four sections are covered with flat domes.

The original floor of the courtyard was laid with small kilnburnt bricks laid in the Musallah pattern (prayer rugs pattern). The present red sandstone flooring was re-laid during the repairs from 1939-60. The original floor of the prayer chamber was also replaced by marble Musallah during the repairs. There are only two inscriptions in the mosque: one on the gateway and another of Kalmah in the prayer chamber under the main high vault. near the steps of the Badshahi Mosque lies the tomb of the Poet of the East Dr Sir Allama Muhammad lqbal. The tomb near the entrance of the mosque was constructed as a mark of respect and reverence to the great man.

As historic accounts state, the grand mosque witnessed seasons; it remained under different usage during the Sikh and British Raj. During the rule of Maharaja Ranjit Singh, the Hujras (cells) around the outer boundary were occupied by his soldiers. Ranjit Singh himself used the adjacent Hazuri Bagh as his official Royal Court. Some years later, a moderate earthquake struck Lahore and collapsed the marble

‘Although the mosque was built during the decline of Mughal rule, its exquisiteness, grace, and grandeur reflects the Mughal cultural achievement’ towers at the top of each minaret.

The open towers served as gun emplacements during the Sikh civil war.

The British continued to use the Badshahi Mosque as a military garrison. In 1852 the British established the Badshahi Mosque Authority for its restoration so it could be returned to Muslims as a place of worship. In 1939 massive repairs began under the supervision of architect nawab Zen Yar Jang Bahadur. The repairs continued until 1960 and were completed at a cost of Rs4.8 million.

Later, the Samadhi of Maharaja Ranjit Singh was added next to the mosque using its walls and the only remaining Mughal Era Gate, the Roshnai Gate.

Although the mosque was built during the decline of Mughal rule, its exquisiteness, grace, and grandeur reflects the Mughal cultural achievement.

Thousands throng here every year to admire these features. g

www.pakistantoday.com.pk 15

C M YK

Sunday, 14 - 20 June, 2015

opInIon

Minimum wage: The federal mandate Fix it!

IfTIKHar aHMad The writer is an industrial relations graduate from Cornell University and can be reached at: ia72@cornell.edu.

M

AY Day this year again went uncelebrated. The minimum wage for the private sector used to be announced on the labour Day. During 2008-2013, pMl-N led punjab government and ppp-led federal government used to compete in announcing the higher rate of minimum wage.

However, since its coming into power at the centre in 2013, the pMl-N government is announcing minimum wage for private sector workers on the occasion of the federal budget, i.e., in June. last year, the federal government increased the minimum wage for unskilled workers to rs12,000 per month.

However, no notification was issued to require compliance with that announcement. There seems to be a pervasive confusion about the mandate of the federal government on issues once described under the now-abolished concurrent legislative list. Some are of the view that the federal government has lost this mandate to announce minimum wages and regulate other labour matters for the whole country with the abolition of concurrent legislative list and devolution of the subject of “labour” to provinces in the wake of 18th Constitutional Amendment.

This scribe is of the view that

although the subject of “labour” has been devolved to provinces, the federal government can still legislate on the labour related issues because entries three (external affairs; the implementing of treaties and agreements) and 32 (international treaties, conventions and agreements and international arbitration) in part i of the federal legislative list exclusively endow parliament with the power and duty to meet the state’s international obligations under various international conventions, covenants and agreements.

A legally binding minimum wage is a worldwide used and accepted method of political regulation of the labour market. The international labour Organisation (ilO) has three Conventions on minimum wage fixing, namely Convention 26, 99, and 131. Although pakistan has not ratified any of these conventions, it still is under obligation as a member of ilO to give effect to the provisions of these conventions.

Other than ilO conventions, Article 23(3) of the Universal Declaration of Human rights provides that everyone who works has “the right to just and favourable remuneration ensuring for himself and his family an existence worthy of human dignity, and supplemented, if necessary, by other means of social protection”. Similarly, Article 7 of the international Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural rights (ratified by pakistan in 2008) recognises the right of everyone “to the enjoyment of just and favourable conditions of work which ensure, in particular: (a) remuneration which provides all workers, as a minimum, with: (i) fair wages and equal remuneration for work of equal value without distinction of any kind”. Thus, in order to give effect to both UDHr and iCESr, the federal government

can announce the minimum wage and it can require the provinces to follow suit. The provinces can use federally announced minimum wage as a floor and may also provide higher minimum wages in their jurisdictions (as is the case in the United States).

Entry 3 of the federal legislative list requires parliament to give effect to the country’s international obligations and to various agreements and treaties signed under entry 32. Since pakistan does not follow the system of selfexecuting treaties, it is only through legislation that the rights and obligations under these international conventions get the force of law. Since ratification of a convention is the prerogative of the federal government, it is also its responsibility to promulgate national level legislation, which can be adopted and adapted by the provinces, provided that the rights guaranteed under national level legislation cannot be curtailed.

The devolution under 18th amendment does not free the federal government of its responsibility to ensure effective compliance with international labour obligations in all employment related matters including fixing a national floor level minimum wage. The current notion that the federal government’s role is only coordination in labour related matters is untenable and fallacious. in a federation, it is not a job of the federating units to individually uphold international obligations, which are assumed by the state as a whole.

The federal government has the right to enact legislation on labour related matters for industries that remain federal subjects and industries that lie within federal areas. This mandate is not questioned by anyone. What is disputed is its

so-called lost mandate to legislate on issues/matters that are devolved to provinces.

While labour as an entry on the now abolished concurrent legislative list is devolved to the provinces, the federation is still competent to legislate on labour issues through various entries on the Federal legislative list. in accordance with article 3 of the Constitution, the state is required to ensure the elimination of all forms of exploitation and the gradual fulfilment of the fundamental principle, from each according to his ability to each according to his work. Article 37 of the Constitution obliges the state to make provisions for securing just and humane conditions of work. Article 38 of the Constitution speaks about adjustment of rights between employers and employees, and provisions of facilities for work and adequate livelihood with reasonable rest and leisure. The federal legislative list empowers parliament to legislate on matters that are within the legislative competence of the Majlis-e-Shoora (parliament) or relate to the federation (Entry 58), and matters that are incidental or ancillary to any matter enumerated in the legislative list (Entry 59).

These two legislative provisions read with article 3, 37 and 38 of the Constitution allow parliament to legislate on minimum wages by making amendments in Minimum Wages for Unskilled Workers Ordinance, 1969, in order to protect people from exploitation and for adjustment of rights between workers and employers.

The federal government can also legislate on labour issues including minimum wage in line with the provisions in the federal legislative list concerning “interprovincial trade and commerce” and “inter-provincial matters and

co-ordination”. This would be quite similar to the use of the commerce clause for regulating labour related matters by the federal government under the US Constitution. pakistan has ratified 36 ilO conventions and seven main UN conventions on human rights. in order to ensure conformity as well compliance with these conventions and other international treaties, federal legislature has the authority to provide for some basic standard as enunciated in these international instruments. This compliance is also needed to maintain the hardbargained GSp-plus status. The compliance required under GSpplus won’t be met with mere coordination of reports on application of international standards. The federal government has to set an example and the provincial governments have to follow that minimum standard at least. A relevant legislation would be enactment of antidiscrimination legislation for protection from discrimination in all employment related. This legislation is a pre-requisite under the ilO conventions 100 (Equal remuneration Convention) and 111 (Discrimination in Employment and Occupation Convention).

The question whether the federal government fixes the minimum wage following some objective criteria is controversial.

The way minimum wage has been announced for the last couple of years is arbitrary. it does not even seem to follow the provisions under Minimum Wages Ordinance 1961, which require a Minimum Wages Board to take into account economic conditions, cost of living and other factors while revising the minimum wages. An arbitrary and political figure, without considering ground realities and without consulting with relevant stakeholders, i.e., employer and employee representative organisations, announced as ‘minimum wage’ cannot guarantee compliance, which is much needed to retain GSp-plus status. g

Is China-Pakistan Economic Corridor really a game changer?

Grand vision

Hassan KHan The writer recently completed his undergraduate studies in BA (Hons) War Studies from King’s College London, University of London and aspires to become a career diplomat. He loves to regularly travel around the world and read books of political nature. He can be reached at: hassankhan440@gmail.com

A

pril 2015 was a historic month for Sino-pakistan relations when Chinese president Xi Jinping and pakistani prime Minister Nawaz Sharif signed an agreement worth $46 billion for the China-pakistan Economic Corridor (CpEC), which is the considered to be the largest investment by China in a foreign country. This Corridor is of high significance, as it shall run through one of the most vital geostrategic locations in South Asia. it shall mainly act as a trade bridge between China, the Middle East and Europe through pakistan but will generate thousands of jobs and revenue worth billions of dollars for both countries. However, there

16 www.pakistantoday.com.pk

were some concerns raised by local and international stakeholders that require to be dealt with for long-term development goals.

According to the ‘String of pearls’ Theory, this corridor is one of the many megaprojects planned by China in Central, South and South East Asia for expanding its political and economic influence to counter the relatively better established US sphere of influence in the region. The US has a similar agenda in the form of ‘pivot to Asia’, which is aimed at countering China’s economic and military expansion in Asia-pacific.

According to a report published in 2013 by london based policy think tank Chatham House, ‘The increasing complexity of the Asia-pacific region demands US attention, and the United States remains wellpositioned to play a pivotal role in the region through the 21st century.’ This means that the US has partnered itself with key players in the region such as india, Japan, indonesia and Singapore to prevent the Chinese ‘dragon’ from spreading its influence. The hostile nature of these moves has made pakistan a major player that can potentially balance the superpower rivalries and promote trade cooperation in the region as it has good relations with both the West and China. A similar initiative taken by General Yahya Khan’s regime in 1970 had also brought the two great powers on the diplomatic table and in current scenario; a trade-oriented diplomacy by pakistan can help reduce the complexities of this rivalry. in terms of trade route, China mainly relies on the shipping route that passes through the Strait of Malacca and it takes some 45 days to reach Europe via the Middle East. When the CpEC is completed, it would take approximately 10 days for Chinese shipments to reach their destination, as the

Kashgar-Gwadar route will play a pivotal role in reducing the staggering amount of time and distance. Not only this, the reliance on the Malacca route would be significantly reduced, as it is already a potential flashpoint of blockade by the United States pacific Command (USpACOM) in periods of major hostility.

Furthermore, it is to be noted that a large portion of CpEC is reserved for power projects to reduce demand-supply gap in energystarved pakistan while the expansion of road network across the country is a major key point for both infrastructural development and Chinese goods to pass through. The ministry of planning and development under Federal Minister Ahsan iqbal has already clarified its position regarding the rumours of ‘change in trade route’ to concerned political stakeholders from smaller provinces. The three trade routes that shall stretch from the Himalaya Mountains to the Arabian Sea are actually inter-connected contrary to what the stakeholders believed. it is quite similar to the US Highway and German Autobahn systems that stretch to all corners of regions with entry and exit routes fixed at certain points for every state the highways pass through. These highways have inter-linked transportation and trade encouraging small towns and cities to develop along the routes and for pakistan such a project is a jewel in the crown.

The pakistan army already explored the possibilities of an inter-linked road network in 1997 when an internal research paper was prepared for the GHQ rawalpindi called ‘The Army’s role in Nation Building’ by Brigadier riaz Ahmed Toor. This paper highlighted the need to develop a strong transportation network across all provinces by linking Gwadar and Karachi with the rest of the country for both peacetime and wartime periods. The CpEC’s road network project can

be considered as the true practical face of this research paper published some 18 years ago.

Since the signing of CpEC’s projects, india has also taken keen interest by trying to sabotage the prospects of CpEC through its intelligence agencies. For india, CpEC means that China shall have the upper hand in the Arabian Sea as it will have complete control over the Straits of Hormuz through Gwadar’s seaport. This will likely have adverse effects on india’s trade route and perhaps this is the reason that it has also started close working relationship with iran for making Chabahar a significant seaport.

However, despite the positive outlook of the CpEC, we also need to understand the potentially long run negative impact it shall have on pakistan’s industrial sector. The goods from China will likely flood pakistan’s market more rapidly, which will potentially slow down or in worse case cripple the local industry.

Furthermore, pakistan may only get royalties from CpEC and China may require pakistan to open trade route for Chinese goods to pass into Afghanistan, iran and india depending on the economic situation. Though pakistan has never granted Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to india, a possibility might become a need in the future that must be taken care of. pakistan needs to secure its own national interests and keep the balance of its relations with both China and the West for relying on one sphere of influence can damage relations with the other. By becoming a diplomatic balancer, as pointed out previously, pakistan can get the best from both powers and bridge their sloppy relations. CpEC is indeed a great ‘game changer’ which should complete its short term goals but for longterm trade goals, pakistan shall really have to explore all options so that its own economy doesn’t get trampled beneath. g