Resilient Survivability - Miami Beach 2200 by AbrahamArregui

MIAMI BEACH 2200

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY Anticipating a Resilient Future

INTRODUCTION

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY

INTRODUCTION

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY

INTRODUCTION

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY

INTRODUCTION

Resilient Survivability: Miami Beach 2200

A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of the Department of Architecture in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Architecture: at Savannah College of Art and Design Abraham E. Arregui Savannah May 2018

Julie Rogers Varland, Committee Chair Arpad Daniel Ronaszegi, Committee Member Daniel Overbey, Committee Member

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY

INTRODUCTION

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY

INTRODUCTION

Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURES ..............................................................................................................................................................1 ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................................................................4 ONE ...............................................................................................................................................6 PRECEDENTS | RESEARCH .........................................................................................................................................8 PRINCIPLES OF COASTAL RESILIENCE ...............................................................................................................12 MIAMI - COASTAL RESILIENCE INDEX................................................................................................................18 RESILIENT DESIGN PRINCIPLES ............................................................................................................................23 MATERIALS + TECH ......................................................................................................................................................25 MATERIAL STUDY | DECAY ......................................................................................................................................41 TWO .............................................................................................................................................48 SITE SELECTION.............................................................................................................................................................49 2010 | -.5’ Sea Level ............................................................................................................................................................55 2020 | +.2’ Sea Level ..........................................................................................................................................................55 2030 | +.7’ Sea Level ..........................................................................................................................................................56 2040 | +1.4’ Sea Level ........................................................................................................................................................56 THREE ........................................................................................................................................ 58 2050 | +2.1’ Sea Level ........................................................................................................................................................60 2060 | +2.8’ Sea Level ........................................................................................................................................................62 2070 | +3.5’ Sea Level ........................................................................................................................................................63 2080 | +4.2’ Sea Level ........................................................................................................................................................69 2090 | +4.9 Sea Level .........................................................................................................................................................75 FOUR .......................................................................................................................................... 80 2100 | +5.6’ Sea Level ........................................................................................................................................................81 2110 | +6.3’ Sea Level ........................................................................................................................................................84 2120 | +7 Sea Level ............................................................................................................................................................85 2130 | +7.7’ Sea Level ........................................................................................................................................................87 2140 | +8.4’ Sea Level ........................................................................................................................................................89 2150 | +8.4’ Sea Level ........................................................................................................................................................89 2160 | +9.8’ Sea Level ........................................................................................................................................................89 2170 | +10.5 Sea Level .......................................................................................................................................................92 2180| +11.2’ Sea Level .......................................................................................................................................................92 2190| +11.9’ Sea Level .......................................................................................................................................................92 Miami Beach: 2200 | +12.6’ Sea Level .............................................................................................................................93 Final Remarks .......................................................................................................................................................................93 Appendix ................................................................................................................................... 96 Timeline Condensed ............................................................................................................................................................97 Works Cited.........................................................................................................................................................................109

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY

INTRODUCTION

List of Figures Figure 1 | Coral_Texture_1 | By Author ..........................................................................................................................6 Figure 2 | Coral_Texture_2 | By Author ..........................................................................................................................7 Figure 3 | Coral_Texture_3 | By Author ........................................................................................................................17 Figure 4 | Resilient Capacity Index | Institute for Government Studies ...................................................................18 Figure 5 | Miami RCI | Institute for Government Studies ..........................................................................................19 Figure 6 | Coral_Texture_3 | By Author ........................................................................................................................22 Figure 7 | BacillaFilla | transmaterial.net ........................................................................................................................26 Figure 8 | Everdure_Caltite | transmaterial.net .............................................................................................................26 Figure 9 |Mycological_Bio-Composite| transmaterial.net ...........................................................................................27 Figure 10 | High_Volume_Fly-Ash | transmaterial.net ................................................................................................27 Figure 11 | Pleaching | toogle_images/pleaching.com.................................................................................................28 Figure 12| Bio-Medical_Scaffolding | transmaterial.net...............................................................................................28 Figure 13 |Synthesized_Spider_Silk | transmaterial.net ...............................................................................................29 Figure 14 | Nanobots_At_Work | theconversation.com .............................................................................................29 Figure 15 | Bio_Fabrication | Luiz G Greca .................................................................................................................30 Figure 16 | Augmented_Skin | transmaterial.net ...........................................................................................................30 Figure 17 | D-Shape | transmaterial.net ..........................................................................................................................31 Figure 18 | HygroSkin | transmaterial.net ......................................................................................................................31 Figure 19 | Grow | transmaterial.net ...............................................................................................................................32 Figure 20 | Fibonacci’s_Mashrabiya | transmaterial.net ...............................................................................................32 Figure 21 | Solar_Still | quora.com ..................................................................................................................................33 Figure 22 | Spinel | transmaterial.net ..............................................................................................................................33 Figure 23 | Insitu_Soil_Terra | vertekcpt.com ..............................................................................................................34 Figure 24 | Mussels | mappingignorance.org .................................................................................................................34 Figure 25 | Aquapod| Ocean Farms Technology..........................................................................................................35 Figure 26 | Hydroponic_Agriculture| Pegasus Agriculture Group ...........................................................................35 Figure 27 | Nemo’s_Garden | Nemo’s Garden .............................................................................................................36 Figure 28 | People_of_17 | Galen Oaks .........................................................................................................................36 Figure 29 | Seaweed_Insulation | transmaterial.net ......................................................................................................37 Figure 30 | Biological_Concrete | transmaterial.net .....................................................................................................37 Figure 31 | Reynobond_With_Concrete | aliexpress.com ...........................................................................................38 Figure 32 | Self_Healing_PUU | transmaterial.net .......................................................................................................38 Figure 33 | Tactile_Ceramics | Ikuko Iwamoto .............................................................................................................39 Figure 34 | Flatworm | Jens Petersen ..............................................................................................................................39 Figure 35 | Coral_Texture_4 | By Author ......................................................................................................................40

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INTRODUCTION

Figure 36 | Silk_Screen_1 | By Author ...........................................................................................................................42 Figure 37 | Silk_Screen_2 | By Author ...........................................................................................................................43 Figure 38 | Etching_1 | By Author..................................................................................................................................44 Figure 39 | Copper_Plate | By Author ............................................................................................................................45 Figure 40 | Etching_2 | By Author..................................................................................................................................46 Figure 41 | Miami_Beach_2050 | By Author .................................................................................................................48 Figure 42 | Coast_Line | Total Surf Club.......................................................................................................................50 Figure 43 | Satellite_View | Google Earth .....................................................................................................................51 Figure 44 | Climate_Rose | By Author ...........................................................................................................................52 Figure 45 | Site_Selection | By Author ...........................................................................................................................53 Figure 46 | Flood_Model | By Author ............................................................................................................................54 Figure 47 | Miami_Beach_2100 | By Author .................................................................................................................58 Figure 48 | Coral_Texture_5 | By Author ......................................................................................................................59 Figure 49 | Bio-Mechancal_Scaffolding_Diagram | By Author .................................................................................61 Figure 50 | Scaffolding_Plant_Seeds | By Author ........................................................................................................64 Figure 51 | Street_Level_Circulation | By Author ........................................................................................................65 Figure 52 | Elevated_Circulation | By Author ...............................................................................................................66 Figure 53 | Strategic_Plan | By Author ...........................................................................................................................67 Figure 54 | Rooftop_View | By Author ..........................................................................................................................68 Figure 55 | Scaffolding_Release_Bots | By Author ......................................................................................................70 Figure 56 | Nanobot_Maintenance | By Author ...........................................................................................................71 Figure 57 | Bridge_Diagram_1 | By Author ..................................................................................................................72 Figure 58 | Bridge_Diagram_2 | By Author ..................................................................................................................72 Figure 59 | Bridge_Diagram_3 | By Author ..................................................................................................................72 Figure 60 | Bridge_Diagram_4 | By Author ..................................................................................................................73 Figure 61 | Bridge_Diagram_5 | By Author ..................................................................................................................73 Figure 62 | Girl_In_Boat | By Author ............................................................................................................................74 Figure 63 | Water_Tower_Concept | By Author ...........................................................................................................75 Figure 64 | Water_Tower_Render | By Author .............................................................................................................76 Figure 65 | Building_Sheild | By Author ........................................................................................................................77 Figure 66 | Facade_Elevation | By Author.....................................................................................................................78 Figure 67| Miami_Beach_2200 | By Author ..................................................................................................................80 Figure 68| Sea_Wall_Concept | By Author ....................................................................................................................82 Figure 69| Sea_Wall_Plan | By Author ...........................................................................................................................83 Figure 70| Plant_Trees | By Author ................................................................................................................................84 Figure 71| Scaffolding_Resultant_Structure | By Author ............................................................................................86

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Figure 72 | Agriculture_Bldg_Plan| By Author.............................................................................................................87 Figure 73 | Agriculture_Section_Elevation | By Author .............................................................................................88 Figure 74 | Building_Section| By Author .......................................................................................................................90 Figure 75 | Bridges_Rendering | By Author ..................................................................................................................91 Figure 76 | Large_Building_Section | By Author..........................................................................................................94 Figure 77 | Coral_Texture_6 | By Author ......................................................................................................................95 Figure 78 | Presentation_Timeline_1 | By Author........................................................................................................97 Figure 79 | Presentation_Timeline_2 | By Author........................................................................................................98 Figure 79 | Presentation_Timeline_3 | By Author........................................................................................................99 Figure 80 | Presentation_Timeline_4 | By Author......................................................................................................100 Figure 80 | Presentation_Timeline_5 | By Author......................................................................................................101 Figure 81 | Presentation_Timeline_6 | By Author......................................................................................................102 Figure 82 | Presentation_Timeline_7 | By Author......................................................................................................103 Figure 83 | Presentation_Timeline_8 | By Author......................................................................................................104 Figure 84 | Presentation_Timeline_9 | By Author......................................................................................................105 Figure 85 | Presentation_Timeline_10 | By Author ...................................................................................................106 Figure 86 | Presentation_Timeline_11 | By Author ...................................................................................................107 Figure 87 ..............................................................................................................................................................................108

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INTRODUCTION

(Abstract) Resilient Survivability: Miami Beach 2200

Abraham E. Arregui May 2018 Coastal Cities around the world are beginning to experience the first waves of an imminent threat of sea level rise that has the potential to destabilize the livelihoods of millions. 75% of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s mega-cities, containing the largest populations are situated in coastal regions. In 2015 up to 40% of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population lived in coastal regions within 30 miles from the coastline. 10% of the population lives in low lying areas (under 10 meters above sea level). Current global trends have more people migrating to coastal regions to pursue work opportunities in large cities. In the United States, Miami Beach, Florida is on the front lines of sea level rise. With the average elevation of the island being 3 - 4 feet above sea level, Miami Beach is looking at a turbulent future. (NOAA) The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted up to 6 feet 6 inches of sea level rise by the end of the century. If this were to happen, the entirety of Miami Beach would be one and one half feet below sea level. By the year 2200, Miami Beach would be 9.5 feet below sea level. People will continue to live on Miami Beach during and after the flood, whether by choice or by circumstance. To survive in a flooded city, resilient anticipatory architectural strategies will need to be implemented to ensure a successful existence. It is the responsibility of architects, designers, and policy makers today to ensure that action is taken now to prevent the fall and total abandonment of Miami Beach. Miami Beach has a future; to survive into the 23rd century it will have to relinquish its opulent and lavish identity and adapt to exist resiliently within the ever changing environment.

Keywords: Sea level rise, Miami Beach, Resilient, Anticipatory, Architecture, Future

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ONE PRECEDENTS | RESEARCH

Figure 1

Figure 2

CHAPTER 01

PRECEDENTS | RESEARCH 01

“A resilient community is one that lives in harmony with natures cycles and purposes.” DAVID GODSCHALK

Coastal Cities around the world are beginning to experience the first waves of an imminent threat that has the potential to destabilize the livelihoods of millions. It is believed by many that due to the exploitation of fossil fuels and extravagant living, beginning around the industrial revolution, global temperatures have been rising at an accelerated rate. This rise in global temperatures is resulting in sea level rise caused by ice melt and expanding sea water. A majority of the world’s largest cities developed from shipping ports, as such, they are positioned along the coast. Due to the current economic climate, more and more people are migrating to coastal cities to pursue work opportunities. This rapid densification of cities in creating need for more transportation, construction, and industry, all of which contributes to increased Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions, resulting in sea level rise. It is predicted that by 2050, 10% of major coastal cities will face inundation levels that are not suitable for living, resulting in a mass displacement of city dwellers.1 One of these cities that would be deemed not suitable for living is Miami Florida. According to the National Climate Assessment, oceans could rise two feet by 2060, and as much as 6.6 feet by 2100, which would put much of Miami-Dade underwater. Miami-Dade County is a small part of Florida’s 1350 miles of Southern coastline, which houses three quarters of Florida’s 18 million residents. Miami is likely to be one of the first global mega cities to experience inundation if sea levels continue to rise at predicted rates. If this happens, how will future citizens of Miami Beach continue to live and survive in a flooded city? The international Panel for Climate Change in their 2014 report confirmed that it is likely (95% certainty) that the effects of Climate Change have been caused by Man’s industrialization in the previous 100 years (IPCC 2013). Industrialization has led to a demand and dependence on fossil fuels such as oil and coal. Burning oil and coal produces carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions into earth’s atmosphere, resulting in a phenomenon referred to as the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect is described as the process by which radiation from a planet’s atmosphere warms the planet’s surface to a temperature above what it

Pomeroy, POG.

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CHAPTER 01

would be without its atmosphere.2 CO2 which is emitted through fossil fuel production and consumption is considered a “greenhouse gas”. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere results in radiation from the sun getting trapped near the earth’s surface. Warmer air on earth’s surface increases the temperature of the ocean. Even small increases in world temperatures can make a tremendous difference. Over 70% of the earth’s surface is water. An increase in temperature of the earth surface water causes the water to expand and sea level to rise. Currently the earth atmosphere is around 383 parts per million (PPM) carbon dioxide, and is .08 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels.3 It is believed by Edward Mazria, founder and principle architect of Architecture 2030, and the Architecture 2030 Challenge, that once the earth’s atmosphere hits approximately 450 parts per million carbon dioxide, a tipping point will be met and trigger rapid glacial melt and sea level rise, that will be, “out of humanity’s control.”4 In Mazria’s article, “Nation Under Siege: Sea Level Rise at Our Doorstep,” he specifically blames coal fired power plants as the primary culprit for rapid climate change. Global demand for natural gas peaked in 1973, and oil in 1970. This resulted in increased prices due to demand and the need for an alternative source of power generation. Coal provided this source of power and has since been used to supplement power generating facilities. There are currently 151 Coal burning power plants in the United States, and it is estimated that a new coal burning plant is built weekly worldwide.5 Mazria argues that, “unless the United States initiates an immediate halt to the construction of any new conventional coal-fired plants, gradually phases out existing plants, and then uses its global and economic influence to call for an international moratorium as well, our country and major population centers will be at serious risk.” Mazria’s statements were made in 2007 and, unfortunately, since then the United States Government has yet to act. Some climate change efforts made during the Presidency of Barak Obama were undone by President Donald Trump in 2016 when he pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement and signed an executive order vowing to roll back climate change policies including the Clean Power Plan. These actions taken by the current administration could potentially have very serious consequences for the future of coastal cities in the United States. Specifically, in Florida.

2 3 4 5

“IPCC.” Website 2010 Mazria and Kershner, “Nation Under Siege: Sea Level Rise at Our Doorstep.” Mazria and Kershner, “Nation Under Siege: Sea Level Rise at Our Doorstep.” Shuster and Department of Energy, “‘Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants,’ National Energy Technology Laboratory.”

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CHAPTER 01

The majority share of power generated from coal-fired power plants is consumed by the building sector. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Building sector consumes nearly half (47.6%) of all energy produced in the United States. With 74. 9% of all electricity produced being used to operate buildings.6 It is this contribution to greenhouse emissions by the built environment that lead Edward Mazria to conceive of his idea for the Architecture 2030 challenge. In recent years, global frequencies of hurricanes and tsunamis have intensified. In combination with rising sea levels, these hazardous events have become a regular occurrence. The hazard mitigation process provides the basic framework for United States policy regarding these destructive events.. The Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA), defines hazard mitigation as a sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate the long-term risk to human life and property damage from hazards.7 Hazard Mitigation has for several decades been the more common term within the natural hazards community for describing long-term anticipatory planning. More specifically it refers to actions, steps, programs and policies that can be adopted today that will reduce loss of life and property damage later when a natural ever occurs.8 Mitigating an oncoming disaster includes stocking pantries, strengthening power girds, preparing shelters, reinforcing coastal barriers and beaches, boarding up windows and placing sand bags. The problem with disaster mitigation is that it is typically only implemented pre-hazard event. It has become a preemptive response, and is not thought about as a long-term strategy. While current mitigation strategies and plans do protect lives and properties, mitigation becomes the first step in an endless cycle. This cycle can be thought of in three steps: 1) When a weather event is located on the weather radar, mitigation and preparation begins to take place. 2) After the hazardous event takes place, emergency officials respond and assess damage. 3) the recovery phase begins, and reconstruction commences. This is all repeated in an equivalent way when the next hazard event approaches. In many cases today, in the recovery phase of a disaster much of the property rebuilt and recovered is done so in the exact same way it was prior to the event. Insurance will cover the reconstruction of a home, but to get the home rebuilt and elevated to prevent future floods is a years-long process only granted to few of those who apply.

6 7 8

Mazria, “Architecture 2030 Challenge.” FEMA, “Cast Studies and Tools for Community Officials.” Glavovic and Smith, Adapting to Climate Change.

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CHAPTER 01

The realization of the flaw in current tactics for combating hazardous events has given rise to the thought of resilience. Resilience can essentially be thought of as long-term disaster mitigation with a focus on creative adaptation and learning. Resilience contains stronger social and community systems and calls for more intricate processes to be in place for facilitating response to disaster and recovery. Resilience is defined by C.S. Holling, author and Professor in Ecology at the University of Florida, as “The capacity of a system to absorb and utilize or even benefit from perturbations and change that attain it, and so persist without a qualitative change in the system or structure.” 9 Resilience as defined by David Godschalk, an emeritus faculty member in the Department of City and Regional Planning at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, is, “A Resilient community is one that lives in harmony with nature’s carrying cycles and processes.”10 Douglas Paton, PhD, professor of Psychology and Professor of Disaster risk Reduction at Charles Darwin University, defines Resilience as, “A measure of how well people and societies can adapt to a changed reality and capitalize on the new possibilities offered.”11 All three of these definitions involve living in harmony with nature and even benefiting from it. To be a truly resilient community requires strong ties to sustainability and environmental conscientiousness. The term sustainable, described by the United Nations in the Brundtland Report (1987) as, “Meeting the Needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations ability to meet their own needs.” 12 Today it has been watered down and overused so much that in the building sector, sustainability has come to be understood as: “economic and social development that maintains growth within acceptable levels of global resource depletion and environmental pollution.”13 Resilience and sustainability are highly related concepts. Sustainability can be viewed as a foundation or cornerstone of resilience. Sustainability of an ecosystem, or landscape, or city requires resilience.14 For the purposes of this research, resilience will be examined in terms of what constitutes a resilient coastal community.

9 10 11 12 13 14

Gunderson, Allen, and Holling, Foundations of Ecological Resilience. Godschalk, Natural Hazard Mitigation. Paton and Johnston, Disaster Resilience. World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future. Pomeroy, POG. Glavovic and Smith, Adapting to Climate Change.

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CHAPTER 1.2

PRINCIPLES OF COASTAL RESILIENCE 1.2 To understand what makes coastal communities resilient, it is useful to look at the principles outlined in chapter 6, “Planning for Resilient Coastal Communities: Emerging Practice and Future Direction” of Bruce Glavovic’s book Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons from Natural Hazards Planning”. These set of principles are designed to help coastal decision makers, planners and citizens begin to think of ways to plan for greater coastal resilience. These principles were drawn and synthesized from multiple key sources including literature, interviews, and the authors extensive professional experience: Long-term, Multi-scale Approach: Coastal resilience requires a long-term approach that surpasses mitigation tactics currently in place. Instead of preparing for the next disaster and recovery period, communities should plan for the next 50 – 100 years. The Dutch, who are considered the premier innovators in sea level adaptation, have developed a national action plan with a 200-year time-frame. This comprehensive strategy includes efforts by land management entities to coordinate investments and fund raising, infilling land at the oceans edge, raising reinforcing dikes and levees, as well as, constructing new and innovative flood barriers. Guide Growth and Development Away from High-Risk Locations: Avoidance is ultimately the most effective and sensible approach to resilience in the face of physical forces.15 In many coastal cities it is too late to avoid development at water’s edge, but strategies, such as transferring development rights to conservation easements and land acquisition, can be used to steer citizens away from high-risk locations. In cases where possible, high-risk zones, prone to disaster, should be avoided in future developments. Certain towns and counties have already began implementing strategies of this nature. Collier County, Florida, has transferred the development rights of high-risk coastal zones to less at risk and landward locations. Worcester County, Maryland, has adopted a plan to shift future development and growth away from its only seaside locations to historic inland towns.16 Locate Critical Facilities Out of or Away from High-Risk Locations: For a community to have the ability to weather a hazardous event, such as hurricanes and

15 16

Glavovic and Smith. P.131 Beatley, Planning for Coastal Resilience.

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CHAPTER 1.2

sea level rise, critical infrastructures will need to be able to withstand the event. Critical infrastructures such as, municipal sewage collection and treatment, fresh water supply systems, transportation corridors, roads and highways, critical medical facilities and shelters, will need to be maintained to support community activity. States such as Florida are currently discussing prohibiting the creation of new critical facilities (power generation and sewage treatment) in high-risk hazard areas. As it stands in Florida today, Hal Wanless, Chairmen of the University of Miami’s geology department, claims that two feet of sea level rise will cause critical infrastructure such as sewage treatment and nuclear power plants will be stranded in water. “At two feet they will be sitting out in the ocean. Most of the barrier islands will be uninhabitable. The airport is going to have problems at four feet. We will not be able to keep freshwater above ocean levels, so we are going to have salt water intrusion into our drinking water supply.”17 Compelling Vision of the Future: A coastal resilience plan must have the support of community citizens, businesses and public officials. The vision of the future of the community must be a positive and compelling one to gain the support of such residents. Preserve and Restore Ecosystems and Ecological Infrastructure: A city or region’s natural ecosystem and green infrastructure represent one of the clearest and most important lines of defense against many natural hazards.18 Natural buffers and barriers surrounding coastal communities are the best and most sustainable defense against hazardous events and sea level rise. Tidal planes and marshes play a pivotal role in evacuating and absorbing excess water. It is important that when developing a community in a coastal region not to disturb these natural ecological defenses. Promote Diverse Local Economy: Economic diversity in a local economy is a key factor is recovering and rebuilding after a hazardous event. The quicker local businesses can reopen, the faster the community can begin to recover. Local business are vital, opposed to non-local businesses, due to their commitment and dedication of their community. Local businesses are more likely to expedite the rebuild and reopening of the local market. Economic Diversity is an imperative for certain coastal communities. If tourism is the main economic driver in a coastal community, which it often is, the community faces potential economic disaster if a

17 18

Beatley, Planning for Coastal Resilience. Walker and Salt, Resilience Thinking.

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CHAPTER 1.2

hazardous event occurs during peak tourism season. If Agriculture is a main driver of the economy and a hurricane destroys crops, that years lack of yield will affect the entire local economy. Having a multitude of diverse economies can create a more resilient marketplace. Supplementing tourism and agriculture with other industries which are less likely to be affected by hazardous events can strengthen the communityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s resilience. Plan for Resilient Recovery and Growth: In addition to having a long-term approach to coastal resilience, planning for resilient recovery and growth after a hazardous event must be well thought out. During the recovery phase, how can structures be rebuilt to reduce exposure and enhance long term resilience. What will be learned from the hazardous event and how will systems and structures be adapted to withstand future events? It is beneficial to have a reconstruction plan in place well before an event occurs. Instead of rebuilding the same communities, plan to rebuild better communities that respond better and even benefit from future events. Preserve and Restore Ecosystems and Ecological Infrastructure: A city or regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s natural ecosystem and green infrastructure represent one of the clearest and most important lines of defense against many natural hazards. Natural buffers and barriers surrounding coastal communities are the best and most sustainable defense against hazardous events and sea level rise. Tidal planes and marshes play a pivotal role in evacuating and absorbing excess water. It is important that when developing a community in a coastal region not to disturb these natural ecological defenses. Promote Diverse Local Economy: Economic diversity in a local economy is a key factor is recovering and rebuilding after a hazardous event. The quicker local businesses can reopen, the faster the community can begin to recover. Local business are vital, opposed to non-local businesses, due to their commitment and dedication of their community. Local businesses are more likely to expedite the rebuild and reopening of the local market. Economic Diversity is an imperative for certain coastal communities. If tourism is the main economic driver in a coastal community, which it often is, the community faces potential economic disaster if a hazardous event occurs during peak tourism season. If Agriculture is a main driver of the economy and a hurricane destroys crops, that years lack of yield will affect the entire local economy. Having a multitude of diverse economies can create a more resilient marketplace. Supplementing tourism and

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CHAPTER 1.2

agriculture with other industries which are less likely to be affected by hazardous events can strengthen the community’s resilience.

Design for Passive Survivability and Sustainability: Passive survivability is described by Alex Wilson, of the Environmental Building News as the “ability of a building to maintain critical life-support conditions for its occupants if services such as power, heating fuel, or water are lost for an extended period”.19 The United States Green Building Council, put together a three day charrette and formed what is known as, “The New Orleans Principles,” which state, “Buildings should be designed to maintain survivable thermal conditions without air conditioning or supplemental heat through the use of cooling load avoidance strategies, natural ventilation, highly efficient building envelopes, and passive solar design. Schools and other public buildings should be designed and built with natural daylighting so that they can be used without power during the daytime. Co-locate healthcare facilities with schools as part of the community anchor and to strengthen survivability”.20 Perhaps it is time we decide to rely less on modern technologies and comforts such as air conditions and central heat. Traditional regional vernacular styles of construction were developed to address heating and cooling needs before we had power. Reintegrating these technologies can create a more resilient form of modern construction that only uses electrical power as a supplement. Passive survivability should also be considered on the neighborhood level. After a hazardous event it could be weeks to months before the conventional grocery store reopens. Consider planting fruit trees and edible landscapes to provide local food during the recovery phase and lessen the dependence on outside aid. Design and Build Decentralized Resilient Infrastructures: Begin to replace centralized and rigid infrastructures with decentralized infrastructures. Relying on a sole source of power generation can be catastrophic if damage is sustained during an event. Emphasis on photovoltaics can increase community resilience. If power is lost in one place, it would not then affect all others. Pressure can be taken off sewer and water sanitation facilities, which are vulnerable to failure during flooding events, through the use of permeable surfaces and green roofs. Think Holistically: Thinking holistically is described by Galvanic and Smith, in “Adapting to Climate Change” as the ability of a community to respond to and adapt successfully to

19 20

Wilson, “Passive Survivability.” “The New Orleans Principles. New Orleans Planning Charrette.” P. 9-11

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CHAPTER 1.2

a major disaster requires a level of holistic thinking not yet common, even though natural hazards touch every aspect of daily life as well as a broad range of environmental, social and economic issues that define a community and region. Resilience is also about many nontraditional planning subjects such as the availability of food and community food systems, and reservation of energy and water.21

Glavovic and Smith, Adapting to Climate Change.

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Figure 3

CHAPTER 1.3

MIAMI - COASTAL RESILIENCE INDEX 1.3 The above principles of coastal resilience can be viewed as a framework for moving forward in designing and achieving resilient coastal communities. Depending on location and culture, these principles will vary. Many of these principles have been used in the generation of the Resilience Capacity Index (RCI), which was developed by Kathryn Foster at the Institute of Governmental Studies, The University of California Berkeley, to assess a region’s resilience by its qualities to cope with future challenges. The Resilience Capacity index is a single statistic summarizing a region’s score on 12 equally weighted indicators – four indicators in each of the three dimensions encompassing Regional Economics, Socio-Demographic, and Community Connectivity attributes. As a gauge of a region’s foundation for responding effective to a future stress, the RCI reveals regional strengths and weaknesses, and allows regional leaders to compare their region’s capacity profile to that of other metropolitan areas.22 The figure below graphically shows what factors play into the Resilience Capacity Index. When these dimensions are applied to Miami, Florida, it receives an overall RCI Rank of 317 (out of 361 major metropolitan areas in the United States). This RCI indicates that Miami, is not currently situated to be a resilient coastal community. As indicated in the below figure, it is apparent that economic inequality and regional affordability are serious obstacles in Miami achieving resilience. “The Economic Diversification Ranking” is at 188, which is within the median range of all regions studied.

Building Resilient Regions, Institute of Governmental Studies, University of California Berkeley, “Resilience Capacity Index.”

Figure 4 RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 18

CHAPTER 1.3

At first appearance, it may not seem to be a major issue, but after closer inspection, the two main economic drivers in Florida are tourism and agriculture. Both of which are extremely susceptible to suffering losses during and after hazardous events. With coastal resilience and Miami’s Regional Economic Capacity in mind, what will the effects of sea level rise look like in Miami, Florida? With Tourism being the major economic driver of Miami, the city faces a problem that many other coastal destinations have. How will sea level rise affect the tourism economy? In 50 years from now, it is predicted that South Beach, Miami, will no longer have a beach. Without a beach, people may choose another destination to vacation. This would have a very direct and noticeable impact on Miami’s economy. Agriculture is Florida’s second largest industry, and this also faces potential devastation with climate change. Hurricane Maria hit Florida in 2017 at its peak orange season. Sustained category 4 winds blew oranges off the trees just before

Figure 5

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 19

CHAPTER 1.3

the fruit ripened. With insurance, farmers were able to survive this storm, but hurricanes continue to intensify yearly, at a certain point Florida’s agricultural economy will suffer losses. Agriculture also faces potential issues when the sea level when the sea level rises and causes salt water intrusion into the land mass and aquifers, rendering the soil useless for traditional crops. People have started to take notice of these issues in Miami, and some are attempting to diversify Florida’s economy to combat them. Developers currently working in Miami are recognizing the issue of global sea level rise, and attempting to turn it into an economic opportunity. They are attempting to find new and innovative ways to keep the current trajectory of construction in Miami alive, despite the encroaching water. Certain Dutch developers, who are some of the most experienced with sea level rise, have begun to migrate to the city to introduce their more radical ideas on floating architecture, and define what the future of South Florida’s architecture will look like and function. Behren, a Dutch architect and developer who has moved to South Florida claims, “People only see the negative effects of flooding, we need to show people there is a way to make money out of this. For the government, there are tax dollars. For developers, their investment is secured for the next 50 years, there is a lot of money involved in this climate change, it will be a whole new industry.”23 Many people are unwilling to address the immediacy of the issue of climate change. As recently as three years ago, Republican Governor of Florida, Rick Scott, repeatedly avoided the subject of climate change by declaring, “I’m not a scientist.” Four southern counties in Florida, have drafted a general plan to “re-engineer” the region, step by step, through 2060. The plan will be years in the making, but will face similar mitigative tactics we have seen before. Joe Fleming, a Miami land-use attorney states concerning the plan, “We will do what we have always done. We will dredge and prop everything up.”24 While this 2060 plan to do much of the same is being supported and designed, other citizens are attempting in vain to launch more resilient plans. Harvey Ruvin, a former county commissioner, has lobbied and pushed plans to prepare the city for sea level rise. Ruvin states, “The whole idea is to do this comprehensive capital plan that would include all kinds of things – desalination plants, lifting roads, where to raise land, where to create canals. Part of the future has to be raising some land at the expense of other land.” At this point his efforts have not been heard. It is possible that politicians and government officials are unwilling to hear the argument for his plans because conservative estimations for implementing a plan such as this would cost upwards of 50 billion dollars. In 2014 Ruvin invited two executives from the global

23 24

Parker, “Treading Water ‘Climate Change Economics.’” Parker. “Treading Water ‘Climate Change Economics.’” P.4

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 20

CHAPTER 1.3

reinsurance company, Swiss Re, to brief a task force on Florida’s future. They predicted that losses from storm related events could reach 33 billion by 2030. They predicted that 40% of those losses to valuable real estate could be prevented if the state of Florida acted sooner rather than later. Mark Way, a sustainability expert from Swill Re, says, “These kinds of issues cannot just be left for another 10, 20, 30 years.”25 There are currently concerns with rising insurance rates in South Florida’s housing and real estate market. As prices to insure homes and businesses climb yearly, they will eventually reach a critical threshold where policy holders will no longer be able to afford to insure their properties. This will create a dramatic crash in the housing market and will force people to abandon their homes and businesses. When this happens, it will be too late for the city to fix their problems. They will lose too much valuable tax dollars from the closed businesses that could be used to fund construction towards preparedness and resilience. Considering that many real estate developers are still unwilling to address the problems posed by sea level rise, perhaps the best way to get their attention is to speak of the financial opportunities that can come from climate change. Concerns for sustainability and resilience will never outweigh the concern for money. Instead of urging those in power to do the right thing for the environment, encourage them to do the right thing for their bottom dollar. The future of Florida’s coastal communities could very well come down to money. A current construction plan is taking place in Miami to elevate the low-lying streets as much as three feet in certain areas. That is an expensive and temporary solution to a long-term problem. Beach nourishment projects are constantly taking place, which cost tens of millions of dollars each time, and are detrimental to local natural ecosystems. While both efforts currently being made are not ideal, they are some of the only options currently available to South Florida. Where other communities can build sea walls and levees, South Florida sits atop a porous limestone base. Even if sea walls are built, water will percolate through the limestone and work its way up to the surface. This leaves Miami in a unique situation where there may truly be no way to stop the water from inundating the city. For Miami Florida to survive, it will have to immediately start implementing plans to become more resilient. It will have to start developing ways to live in harmony with the incoming sea, and ideally even benefit from it. New and creative industries and modes of living will have to be developed to sustain life in an inundated city. If action is not taken soon to make this future a reality, situations may turn out as Hall Wanless, believes, “Everyone wants a nice happy ending. But that’s not a reality. We’re in for it. We have really done a job warming our oceans, and it’s going to pay us back”.

Parker, “Treading Water ‘Climate Change Economics.’” P.5

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 21

Figure 6

CHAPTER 1.4

RESILIENT DESIGN PRINCIPLES 1.4

To be truly resilient, a community must have strong ties to sustainability and environmental conscientiousness. Introduction to Resilient Design Principles: as laid out by the Institute for Resilient Design.26 Resilience transcends scales. Strategies to address resilience apply at scales of individual buildings, communities, and larger regional and ecosystem scales; they also apply at different time scalesâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;from immediate to long-term. Resilient systems provide for basic human needs. These include potable water, sanitation, energy, livable conditions (temperature and humidity), lighting, safe air, occupant health, and food; these should be equitably distributed. Diverse and redundant systems are inherently more resilient. More diverse communities, ecosystems, economies, and social systems are better able to respond to interruptions or change, making them inherently more resilient. While sometimes in conflict with efficiency and green building priorities, redundant systems for such needs as electricity, water, and transportation, improve resilience. Simple, passive, and flexible systems are more resilient. Passive or manualoverride systems are more resilient than complex solutions that can break down and require ongoing maintenance. Flexible solutions are able to adapt to changing conditions both in the short- and long-term. Durability strengthens resilience. Strategies that increase durability enhance resilience. Durability involves not only building practices, but also building design (beautiful buildings will be maintained and last longer), infrastructure, and ecosystems. Locally available, renewable, or reclaimed resources are more resilient. Reliance on abundant local resources, such as solar energy, annually replenished groundwater, and local food provides greater resilience than dependence on nonrenewable resources or resources from far away

â&#x20AC;&#x153;The Resilient Design Principles.â&#x20AC;?

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 23

CHAPTER 1.4

Resilience anticipates interruptions and a dynamic future. Adaptation to a changing climate with higher temperatures, more intense storms, sea level rise, flooding, drought, and wildfire is a growing necessity, while non-climate-related natural disasters, such as earthquakes and solar flares, and anthropogenic actions like terrorism and cyberterrorism, also call for resilient design. Responding to change is an opportunity for a wide range of system improvements. Find and promote resilience in nature. Natural systems have evolved to achieve resilience; we can enhance resilience by relying on and applying lessons from nature. Strategies that protect the natural environment enhance resilience for all living systems Social equity and community contribute to resilience. Strong, culturally diverse communities in which people know, respect, and care for each other will fare better during times of stress or disturbance. Social aspects of resilience can be as important as physical responses. Resilience is not absolute. Recognize that incremental steps can be taken and that total resilience in the face of all situations is not possible. Implement what is feasible in the short term and work to achieve greater resilience in stages.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 24

Materials | Tech

MATERIALS + TECH 1.5

With a resilient future in mind for coastal cities, new architectural strategies will need to be imagined and implemented in anticipation of the changing environment. The following are new and innovative materials and technologies which have great potential to impact the built environment. These materials and technologies are a catalogue of references that support the strategies suggested to anticipate and survive resiliently in an inundated city.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 25

Materials | Tech

BacillaFilla

Everdure Caltite

Figure 7

Figure 8

CONCRETE HEALING MICROBIAL PATCH: Microbial Glue Developed as an effort at Newcastle University to repair damaged concrete and prevent catastrophic failure. Once glue is applied to surface, spores begin to germinate, as the cells swarm into the cracks and form calcium carbonate crystals, a natural binding agent called levan adhesive is released.

SALT WATER AND CORROSION RESISTANT CONCRETE: Caltite is a pore blocking hydrophopic add mixture that contains corrosion inhibitors and reduces concreteâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capillarity to produce ultra low absorption concrete. This mixture of attributes makes the mixture ideal for underwater applications.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 26

Materials | Tech

Mycological Bio-Composite

High Volume Fly-Ash

Figure 9

Figure 10

Mycobond

Salt water and corrosion resistant concrete: Typical production of Portland cement is a process that releases significant amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. In the production of 1 ton of concrete, 1 ton of carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere. By using supplementary cementing materials, such as fly ash, silica fume, and slag, in the concrete add mixture, less Portland cement will be necessary. This process could reduce the carbon footprint of the concrete industry.

Mycobond is a new low embodied energy process of manufacturing, using biological composites mixed with mycellium (mushroom root network) as a binding agent. Using organic binding agents will aid in lessening the carbon footprint of the Portland cement industry.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 27

Materials | Tech

Pleaching

Bio-Medical Scaffolding

Figure 11

Figure 12

Biological Pleaching Pleaching is to entwine or interlace (tree branches, or vines) to form a hedge or protective cover for an outdoor walkway. This concept is has commonly been adopted for artistic and aesthetic purposes.

Microbes With the advent of CRISPER, using programmed microbes to create and repair scaffolding structures that aid in cellular construction in medicine has become much more controllable. Targeting specific cellular networks and processes is now possible. Targeting specific cellular networks and processes is now possible.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 28

Materials | Tech

Synthesized Spider Silk

Nanotechnology

Figure 13

Figure 14

Spider Silk Researchers at the University of Cambridge have created a new material which mimics the properties of spider silk. It is extremely elastic, light weight, and has a great capacity in absorbing energy. Its potential applications range from industrial products such as clothing and bike helmets, to parachutes and bullet proof armor.

Worlds Smallest Engine: At Cambridgeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Cavendish Laboratory, the worlds smallest engine has been created. Measuring 200 billionths of a meter, which has the capacity of powering nanobots for fighting disease within cells. Most advances in nanotechnology are being pioneered within the medical industry, but the technologyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s applications can extend well beyond the biological realm.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 29

Materials | Tech

Bio Fabrication

Augmented Skin

Figure 15

Figure 16

Bacterial Composite Bacterias that can be used to fabricate materials containing differing properties such as flexibility, transparency, and tactility could potentially be used in construction of composite material fabrics, films, human prosthetics and high performance building panels.

Hybrid Concrete Casting System A custom casting system Developed at London’s Bartlett School of Architecture. This ‘‘Augmented Skin” allows for the creation of complex architectural components to be cast in non traditional forms. This allows for new and unique structures to take form.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 30

Materials | Tech

D-Shape

Climate Responsive Apertures

Figure 17

Figure 18

3D Printed Stone Enrico Dini, founder of Monolite, has developed a system in which stone can be 3D printed. Through a mixture of sand and Microcrystalline, stone is created with a binding force stronger than portland cement. This technology can be used in creating new structural frameworks and networks.

HygroSkin Climate control in architecture has become highly mechanized and sometimes self operating. HygroSkin is a different and no-tech strategy for responsive apertures. These apertures are created out of wood which is responsive towards humidity levels, opening when it swells during high humidity and closing during low humidity.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 31

Materials | Tech

Grow

Fibonacciâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Mashrabiya

Figure 19

Figure 20

Ivy Inspired Solar and Wind Energy Curtain Using flexible organic photo-voltaic panels (ivy leafs) Grow, is able to convert solar energy into electricity. Each leaf is attached to the framework with a piezoelectric generator system, creating additional electricity as the leafs flutter in the wind.

Fractal Environmental Screen Fibonacciâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Mashrabiya is a environmentally inspired screen system. This aperture was created by interpreting historical systems mixed with computer algorithms. This system can be used to provide shade, dictate user views, and control air flow.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 32

Materials | Tech

Solar still

Spinel

Figure 21

Figure 22

Life Boat Solar Still Solar stills are a modern usage of a primitive technology of collecting condensation for fresh water. Typically used on life rafts, solar stills purify sea water through sun light and condensation that is then collected in a reservoir for drinking.

Transparent Armor Developed by the United States Navy, Transparent Armor is a clear armor created using spinel, a type of material that is more durable than traditional glass. Using a newly developed technique called sinthering, naval researchers are able to create transparent, bullet proof spinel sheets that can be formed, using a press, into various forms and applications.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 33

Materials | Tech

Slow Sand Filtration

Mussel Farming

Figure 23

Figure 24

Natural Filtration A naturally occurring process is easily translated into a low tech mechanical process where non potable water is allowed to percolate down through various mediums consisting of gravel, sand, charcoal, and silt. Contaminants are removed periodically as the water passes through each layer.

Shellfish Aquaculture Shellfish farming, specifically that of filter feeders has the added benefit of aiding in ocean water purification as well as putting food on the table. Being a primary food source for many species of aquatic animals, shellfish farms also promote and attract biodiversity.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 34

Materials | Tech

Fish Farming

Hydroponic Agriculture

Figure 25

Figure 26

Aqua-pod A floating fish cage, currently positioned at the Snapperfarm in Puerto Rico, is a sphere composed of galvanized steel triangles with steel mesh surfaces. This project is in the work towards a self guided mobile fish farm that allows the vessel to move to deeper or shallower waters in response to climactic conditions

Hydroponic Systems Scarcity of unspoiled and uncontaminated soil will make traditional agriculture obsolete. Hydroponic allows for growth of crops without soils, contaminants, associated pests, and can be accomplished with a limited fresh water supply.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 35

Materials | Tech

Under Water Agriculture

Alternative Lifestyle

Figure 27

Figure 28

Nemo’s Garden Engineers at the Ocean Reef Group, are pioneering alternative means of agriculture which involve growing crops in bubbles under the sea. The benefits of growing crops under water is that consistent and slowly changing water temperatures, make seasonal rotations unnecessary. Pests and disease also do not currently have a way to infest the crops due to their separation from other terrestrial plants.

Migration There have always been people who have chosen not to participate the customary day to day lifestyle of the time.; people who would rather look for something. Escaping the confines of the “civilized world” people will migrate to places where they are able to live how they choose.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 36

Materials | Tech

Seaweed Insulation

Biological Concrete

Figure 29

Figure 30

NeptuTherm Every year tons of Posidona oceanica (type of seaweed) wash up on beaches and are put in landfills due to their unsightliness. Researchers at the Graunhofer Institute for Chemical Technology, have identified properties of the material have identified properties of the material, such as its high insulating value, mold resistance and flame resistance, that make it a valuable building material.

Bioreceptive Concrete Researchers at the Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, have developed a concrete system which is receptive to biological growth such as mosses, fungi, lichens, and migroalgae. This helps to facilitate the natural, comprehensive colonization of organism growth. This systems high thermal mass lessens electrical and HVAC impacts of structures and aids in reducing CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 37

Materials | Tech

Kevlar Coated Composite

Self Healing PUU

Figure 31

Figure 32

Reynobond with Kevlar These Kevlar coated Reynobond building panels are designed to stop category 5 level hurricane debris from damaging building facade systems. By integrating Kevlar into building systems and materials, a new level of resilience can be achieved.

Self Healing Self healing PUU plastics automatically restore themselves when cut or damaged. Scientists at Spainâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s IK4-CIDETEC Research Center have created a material capable of spontaneous quantitative healing without the use of any external stimulants such as heat or light. This self healing polymer can both heal itself when experiencing small cracks, but also when cut entirely in half.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 38

Materials | Tech

Tactile Ceramics

Flatworm Regeneration

Figure 33

Figure 34

Ikuko Iwamoto An interest in microscopic organisms, cells, spores and pollens has influenced Ikuko Iwamoto in materializing tactile ceramics. This aesthetic is was derived from images made available through technology. As we move deeper into the future, what other types of aesthetics will be generated through technological sight?

Platyhelminthes Using artificial intelligent computing, scientists at Tufts University, Massachusetts, have worked out the mechanisms involved in the incredible regenerative capability of the flatworm. This discovery could lead to regrowth of organic anatomy, including regrowing limbs in human beings.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 39

Figure 35

MATERIAL STUDY | DECAY

MATERIAL STUDY | DECAY 1.6 To imagine a future where Miami Beach sits under 10â&#x20AC;&#x2122; of sea level, it was necessary to explore the degradation and decay existing materials may experience. Through this exploration an aesthetic was identified and then used as inspiration in the design that follows.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 41

MATERIAL STUDY | DECAY

Figure 36

With rising and falling tides, growth of crustaceans and other sea life will occur. This growth will change the textures and soften division of what is above and below. Silk screen on watercolor.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 42

MATERIAL STUDY | DECAY

Figure 37

As the sea rises and infrastructure abandoned, contaminants will sour and pollute the coastline. How will these contaminants result in changes to the built environment? Silk screen with Ferric Chloride

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 43

MATERIAL STUDY | DECAY

Figure 38

Metals are especially subtable to corrosion when introduced to a salt environment. Inundation will result in an accelerated rate of degradation. Copper plate etching

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 44

MATERIAL STUDY | DECAY

Figure 39

Contaminants in salt water such as ammonia result in chemical reactions that flash patina metals in the copper family. Copper plate patina with salt water and ammonia.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 45

MATERIAL STUDY | DECAY

Figure 40

Metals exposed to such contaminants as Ferric Chloride corrode at an alarming rate. Soaking for 48 hours in Ferric Chloride resulted in disintegration of edges of copper roofing material. Copper plate etching.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 46

TWO MIAMI BEACH, FL Year 2010 - 2049

Figure 41

CHAPTER 02

SITE SELECTION 2.0

Miami Beach Miami Beach being on the forefront of sea level rise is an ideal case study for the issues discussed in this thesis. Miami Beach sits at average 3.5â&#x20AC;&#x2122; above sea level. In the of the worlds top 10 mega cities, Miami will be the first to experience flooding. Miami beach also faces a two relatively unique situations which prevent traditional solutions for combating sea level rise. These reasons are listed below: Sea Walls - Dykes - Levees The typical approaches to restricting sea level encroachment on a city will not work in Miami Beach. The Floridian Peninsula is situated on a limestone base. Limestone is a porous stone containing many cave systems. This results in sea water being able to infiltrate the limestone and rise to the surface of Florida through the ground. While sea walls and levees will serve as protection during storm surges, they will not succeed in keeping water out of the city.

Fresh Water Miami-Dade County relies on water from the Biscayne Aquifer. As the sea continues to rise, salt water will continue to push its way into the fresh water aquifer. When this happens, municipal water will need to dig deeper wells to access the Floridian Aquifer for potable water. Accessing the Floridian Aquifer will only be a temporary solution for Miami-Dade County, as the sea level continues to rise, the Floridian Aquifer will face increasing amounts of salt water intrusion.

The following thesis explores what it will be like to occupy a city that is facing a slow sinking in the sea. In Miami Beach, walls cannot be constructed as in other geographies, such as the Netherlands, or New Orleans. The following is an example of how coastal cities around the world, who share similarityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s with Miami Beach, could exist resiliently with rising seas. This project can serve as a model that, if successful, could be reproduced and built upon in different coastal locations world wide.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 49

Figure 42

Figure 43

The Island of Miami Beach Miami Beach is an island just off the coast off metropolitan Miami. It is a barrier island that is separated by the Bay of Biscayne from the Floridian Peninsula.

CHAPTER 02

Figure 44

Climate Data Climate data rose illustrating hurricane frequencies, high and low average temperatures, wind directions, sun path and annual rainfall averages.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 52

CHAPTER 02

Selected Site of Study

Adjacent Indian Creek contour presents unique opportunity

Figure 45

Low Elevation Southern Buildings Provide Maximum Sun Exposure Adjacent Parking Infrastructure Potential Atlantic Ocean facing hotels provide barrier from rough sea conditions and storms

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 53

Figure 46

CHAPTER 02

2010 | -.5â&#x20AC;&#x2122; Sea Level 2.1

Planet Earth Global debate over fossil fuel consumption raged at the beginning of the 20th century, and this time was marked by rapid industrial expansion. The United States sub-prime mortgage crisis triggered a global financial downturn. Divide between rich and poor became ever more present. Citizens are becoming more aware of excessive surveillance and he intrusion on privacy and civil liberties. NOAA warns that planet could face up to 6.6â&#x20AC;&#x2122; of sea level rise by 2100. Miami Beach Construction begins to elevate streets by 3 feet. $500 million dollar project to install new pump system. Streets regularly flood during king tides. Local governments ignore threat of climate change.

2020 | +.2â&#x20AC;&#x2122; Sea Level 2.2

Planet Earth Climate change beginning to have significant impact on trade and commodities worldwide, specifically on food and water. Growing instability in fossil fuels and resources triggers resource wars. The hunt for remaining resources continues in the arctic, leading to this region becoming an economic and political battleground, as nations attempt to claim remaining deposits. Miami Beach Locals begin to pressure government for increased preparedness for sea level rise and to reduce impacts of climate change.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 55

CHAPTER 02

2030 | +.7â&#x20AC;&#x2122; Sea Level 2.3

Planet Earth Rapid worldwide shift towards clean energy, algae bio-fuel and other renewable sources flourish and are aided by breakthroughs in nanotechnology. Nations around the world suffer from food shortages and growing influx of refugees affected by climate change, resource wars, and political instability. Up to 18% of worlds coral reefs are lost due to climate change and environmental stress. Miami Beach Street elevation and pump system projects completed. Eastern coast of Florida devastated by hurricane event. Efforts begin to reopen businesses and make city safe. 10% of permanent residents make decision to relocate.

2040 | +1.4â&#x20AC;&#x2122; Sea Level 2.4

Planet Earth Exponential advances in computing power are taking place, in parallel with genetics, nanotechnology and robotics. Smaller, more complex and sophisticated cellular devices are becoming implantable and integrated with the human body. These devices aid in combating disease, enhancing the senses and can provide communication and entertainment. The Ross Sea has lost 75% of its summer ice cover. Miami Beach City of Miami Beach, realizes that flooding is immanent. Sea walls and artificial reefs are erected to attempt to soften blows of hurricanes.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 56

THREE MIAMI BEACH, FL Year 2050 - 2099

Figure 47

Figure 48

CHAPTER 03

2050 | +2.1’ Sea Level 3.1

Planet Earth Mankind begins to permanently colonize mars, escaping its crowded and depleting home planet. Artificial intelligence begins to play a significant role in business and governmental decisions. Economic growth is under major strain worldwide due to ecological impacts, resource scarcity and unemployment due to technological advances and job scarcity. Nearly ½ of the Amazon rainforest’s has been deforested. Continent wide super grids now provide much of the worlds energy distribution needs. Miami Beach Drainage pumps now run on a 24 hour cycle, constantly draining infiltrating sea water. Insurance rates of property are sky rocketing after multiple storm events. Tourism market experiences slight decline. •

Microbial Construction Scaffolding systems move from biomedical to industrial applications.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 60

CHAPTER 03

Bio-Mechanical Scaffolding | Self Growing, self maintained structural system. Figure 49

Existing Structure: Existing steel, wood, and concrete construction has a 50 - 100 year life expectancy, with proper upkeep and maintenance. In extreme environments such as places with freeze and thaw cycles, high salt content in the air, or are prone to environmental pressures, their life span is lessened.

Plant Seeds: Bio-Mechanical seeds containing microbes which have been programmed to grow in attraction to the nearest adjacent seed are to be planted at key points in a structure.

Pleaching: Once seeds have grown, and their branches intersect, they will undergo a pleaching process where the growth fuses and grows together. Once scaffolding has successfully pleached together and come to maturity, programmed microbes stop construction.

Structural Decay: As the original structure decays, Bio-Mechanical Scaffolding remains in place. At this point, Pleaching Nanobots can be released on the structure and make corrections in strength, as the scaffolding takes on additional loads.

Resultant Structure: Once the original structure completely decays and falls away, the Bio-Mechanical Scaffolding Structure remains as the primary support system.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 61

CHAPTER 03

2060 | +2.8â&#x20AC;&#x2122; Sea Level 3.2

Planet Earth Growing world population begins to plateau. Entire nations begin to be devastated by the effects of climate change. Despite changes in technology, human race continues to consume beyond what the earth can sustainability supply. Flood barriers are erected in New York. Desperate attempts are made to improve carbon capture and geoengineering methods, but the magnitude of the crisis will persist for decades. Miami Beach Sea walls and artificial reefs, prove minimally effective at preventing catastrophic storm damage. Miami Beach sees its worst storm season in 30 years. Local housing and real estate markets crash. Beginning of mass Migration from Miami Beach to higher elevations begins. Local government becomes bankrupt, and issues halt to all construction and repair projects.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 62

CHAPTER 03

2070 | +3.5’ Sea Level 3.3

Planet Earth Accelerated space development, expansion of lunar colonies and their automated mining operations. Full scale environmental catastrophe unfolding on earth, sea levels forcing the large-scale evacuation of cities. As glaciers disappear, hydro-power dams become obsolete. Miami Beach Brain storming begins on how to storm proof buildings with shielded glazing and operable bridges. Industry and opportunity has left Miami Beach. Population reduced to 20% of levels at beginning of 21st century. Sea level has reached 3.5 feet, the average elevation of Miami Beach, The city is now more than 50% flooded. Flooded condition leads to nearly constant power outages. •

Remaining residents develop strategy to remain in Miami Beach.

•

Residents who refuse to or cannot evacuate Miami Beach, plant Bio-Mechanical Pleaching Seeds on foundations and first levels of strategically selected buildings.

•

Building selection takes topography, building adjacencies, structure type, and distance from present day sea level into consideration.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 63

CHAPTER 03

Figure 50

Bio-Mechanical Scaffolding Phase 1 | Plant Seeds

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 64

CHAPTER 03

Figure 51

Street Level Circulation | Present Day In traditional 21st century cities, circulation takes place on the street level. This area is occupied by motorists, pedestrians, and bicyclists. In addition to serving as the main artery of a city, its store front adjacencies allow for commercial interactions.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 65

CHAPTER 03

Figure 52

Elevated Circulation | 2070 Circa 2070, sea level is now at the average ground level of Miami Beach, Florida. Occupation of the first floors of buildings and using the streets for circulation is no longer possible. Bridges are built connecting the third levels of remaining structures, and the â&#x20AC;&#x153;street levelâ&#x20AC;? is redefined. Street level now refers to the once third floor of structures, in addition to building bridges and platforms, public spaces will be centered around this elevation. The third floor of all buildings in the colony will be public space, and is where majority of socializing and commercial activity will take place. In addition, rooftops of structures, unless otherwise allocated for industrial use, will now serve as primary outdoor gathering and work spaces.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 66

Figure 53

Strategic Plan | 2070 The above strategy was put together by a group of residents who knew they were going to be remaining in Miami Beach during and after inundation occurs. The plan depicted above illustrates preliminary organizational principles of where circulation will occur, as well as, buildings to attempt to preserve and occupy.

CHAPTER CHAP HAP A TER ER 03 03

RESILIENT R RES RE E ILI LIIENT L I EN ENT N T SU NT SSURVIV UR RV RVI V VI VA AB ABILITY B ILI BILI LII TY LITY TY 68 68

Figure 54

CHAPTER 03

2080 | +4.2’ Sea Level 3.4

Planet Earth With the aid of AI, rapid advances in scientific discoveries are being made. This helps to slow the rise in global temperatures and set path for more sustainable 22nd century. The average human is becoming more heavily reliant on brain-computer interfaces and other implantable devices. Deadly heat waves plague Europe. Longer and more frequent drought periods worldwide. Miami Beach 87 percent of Miami Beach’s 21st century population have now relocated, leaving 713 total residents remaining on Miami Beach. Citizens who have chosen to remain in the city, begin to consolidate and organize at chosen site to begin rebuilding and fortifying structure. •

Maintenance nanobots are released on now matured Bio-Mechanical Scaffolding

•

With the existing street level now experiencing constant flooding, residents begin

and make repairs as necessary. construction of bridges linking 2nd floors of remaining structures. The second floor will now be utilized as the street once was.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 69

CHAPTER 03

Figure 55

Bio-Mechanical Scaffolding Phase 2 | Release Bots

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 70

CHAPTER 03

Figure 56

Nanobot Maintenance | Nanorobotic drones planted on Bio-Mechanical Scaffolding.

Nanobots will then be implanted into the newly formed structure. These bots are programmed to identify places of weakness or high stress. At points identified, bots will repair structure or plant additional seeds. These bots have the ability to self organize and self repair. Their intended and only purpose is to maintain and guide growth of structure.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 71

CHAPTER 03

Timber Bridge

Flat Bridge

Arched Bridge

Used for pedestrian traffic and spanning shorter distances between buildings. + Inexpensive + Easy construction - Durability - Span Length

Lightweight steel construction for spanning both short and medium distances. + Retractable + Moderate construction + Moderate Durability - Not for industrial use

Used for both pedestrian and industrial application with the benefit of allowing additional space for boat traffic below. + Distance + Easy construction - Durability - Span Length

Figure 57

Figure 58

Figure 59

Bridge Exploration | Elevated Street Level Bridging.

With â&#x20AC;&#x153;street levelâ&#x20AC;? being relocated to the third floor of existing structures, bridges will need to be built to span between buildings. Five type of bridges were modeled and explored to understand the merits of certain construction shapes and types. The arched bridge ultimately was selected to be used as the primary bridge type in this thesis. The bridges are to be constructed with a temporary framework, Bio-mechanical pleaching seeds are to then be planted, once seeds have reached maturity and created a scaffolding bridge, the temporary framework will be removed leaving a resilient and self maintaining bridge in its place.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 72

CHAPTER 03

Platform Bridge

Double Bridge

Steel Construction bridge that allows for additional uses outside of pedestrian traffic. + Industrial uses + Agricultural uses + Additional available space + Retractable - Blocks boat traffic

Steel construction durable bridge allows for traffic to pass on multiple levels. + Strength | Durability + Span length + Circulation - Expensive Construction - Non-retractable

Figure 60

Figure 61

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 73

Figure 62

CHAPTER 03

2090 | +4.9 Sea Level 3.5

Planet Earth Much of the day to day running of world affairs is now handled exclusively by ultra-fast, ultra-intelligent machines, robots and virtual entities. 80% of amazon rain forest has been lost. West Antarctica is among fastest developing regions on earth. Miami Beach With sea level at nearly 5 feet, the portion of the Biscayne Aquifer beneath Miami Beach has become inundated with sea water. â&#x20AC;˘

Desalinization water towers are erected to supplement fresh water supply.

Figure 63

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Erection of water towers | Low tech fresh water harvesting With limited and unpredictable amounts of rain water than can be harvested, low tech and energy producing “water towers” have been installed. Each water tower acts as a solar still, using the model of an emergency life raft solar stills developed in the 20th century. Sea water is filled into a reservoir with a clear casing over it. This casing will allow sunlight to increase internal temperature. Leading to evaporation of the sea water and condensation collection on the interior of the casing. This condensation then drips down the rounded edges and is collected as fresh water. Originally developed by the American Navy, the tower’s casing will be constructed with “Transparent Armor”. This material will prevent damage during weather events. Transparent armor will also be equipped with photo-voltaic cells that will gather energy to run the towers and pumps with surplus energy being sent to the grid.

Figure 64

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Figure 65

Climate-Controlled Climate Control | Climate Responsive Aperture Systems With increased water temperatures world wide, climactic events have become less frequent but more severe. Traditional glazing systems are no longer viable options for building facades. As windows are blown out during storms or from salt rot, they are replaced by a responsive aperture systems which have been programmed to grow and operate as a barnacle would. Depending on weather conditions, the cells of the aperture will either open or close to allow the passage of sunlight or air flow. With power supplies being limited to solar harvesting, individual climate control and thermal comfort are no longer viable considerations. The skin of the structures will respond in a way that best provides protection to the building and the environment.

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Closed Position

Figure 66

Variable Position

Active Position

FOUR MIAMI BEACH, FL Year 2100 - 2200

Figure 67

CHAPTER 04

2100 | +5.6’ Sea Level 04

Planet Earth Human intelligence vastly amplified by AI and implants. Nomadic floating cities are being created in the world’s oceans. Sea ice animals such as emperor penguins face extinction. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels peak. Miami Beach There is no longer a beach on Miami Beach. •

Buildings begin to collapse across Miami Beach due to corrosions and erosion

•

Concrete and steel become readily available for harvest from the high number of

created by being submerged and tidal impacts. collapsed buildings on Miami Beach. These materials are used to erect a sea wall around the perimeter of the colony.

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CHAPTER 04

Sea wall construction | Mining ruins of collapsed city

Figure 68

Building materials will be abundant in Miami Beach of 2100, due to the high volume of collapsed structures in the surrounding areas. These materials will be used in constructing a sea wall barrier around the colony in Miami Beach. Residents have developed a plan to wrap the perimeter of the colony with a sea wall that will aid in controlling water turbulence. In the footprints of where buildings use to stand, rubble will be piled upon the existing foundations and shaped into a sea wall. This wall will also serve a double purpose as outdoor space. Residents who have remained in the city have begun to crave solid ground under their feet, this sea wall will provide a more terrestrial experience for those who yearn for land.

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CHAPTER 04

Figure 83

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2110 | +6.3â&#x20AC;&#x2122; Sea Level 4.1

Planet Earth Terra-forming of Mars is underway. Majority of world populations have begun to settle and move to once arctic regions. Large scale arcologies (cities within single architectural structure) are emerging as an alternative to traditional cities. Miami Beach Miami Beach Population begins to slowly rise. â&#x20AC;˘

Trees are planted in public spaces to provide shade from Florida sun.

Figure 84

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2120 | +7 Sea Level 4.2

Planet Earth Geophysicists have mapped entirety of earth’s crust and faults and can now predict earthquakes and tsunamis with computer simulations. Mind uploading enters main stream society. It is now expected that building materials used worldwide contain self healing properties, to ensure longevity and waste seen in the 21st century. Miami Beach Sea life begins to populate first floors of remaining structures, creating new biospheres which aid in purification of contaminated sea water. •

Original structural members of building’s first levels begin to disappear completely, leaving Bio-Mechanical scaffolding in place as the primary structural element.

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CHAPTER 04

Figure 71

Bio-Mechanical Scaffolding Phase 3 | Resultant Structure

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CHAPTER 04

2130 | +7.7’ Sea Level 4.3

Planet Earth Large Scale civilian settlement of the Moon is underway. 30% of earth’s preindustrial species are now extinct. Miami Beach Sustainable food system are put into place including underwater crops and shellfish harvesting. •

Having relied primarily on trade and wild caught fish to this point, fish farms are constructed both within and outside of sea wall perimeter.

•

Water Level has reached a level where aquatic agriculture becomes possible within confines of colony.

Figure 72

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Figure 73

CHAPTER 04

2140 | +8.4’ Sea Level 4.4

Planet Earth North American Union is taking shape. 40% of earths surfaces are now reclassified as new climate zones. Miami Beach People begin to migrate to Miami Beach to escape cramped and confined cities and look for a new way of life. First generation residents of the colony turn 50 years old.

2150 | +8.4’ Sea Level 4.5

Planet Earth Interstellar exploration is becoming commonplace. High-tech, automated cities are new normal. Miami Beach Population sees vast increase during this period, as more and more people become aware of options for alternate living situations.

2160 | +9.8’ Sea Level 4.6

Planet Earth The world’s first bicentenaries, made possible by unprecedented growth in healthcare technology and bio-mechanical implants. Miami Beach Last remaining survivor of pre-flood Miami Beach passes away. Leaving behind a new generation of residents who have never known Miami Beach for what but only for what it has now become.

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Figure 74

Figure 75

CHAPTER 04

2170 | +10.5 Sea Level 4.7 Planet Earth Mass extinctions are leveling off. Miami Beach Tourism begins to return to Miami Beach. With tourism comes investment in the area. People are beginning to see Miami Beach as a nostalgic looking glass into what life once was and now is in coastal communities world wide.

2180| +11.2’ Sea Level 4.8 Planet Earth Breakthroughs have been made in finding a cure for aging. These were made possible through advances in understanding regenerative properties of the flatworm. Miami Beach More colonies begin to emerge along Florida’s coasts. In addition to those who have moved to Miami Beach colonies in search of an alternative lifestyle, people begin to move here in search of employment in a thriving tourism and hospitality market.

2190| +11.9’ Sea Level 4.9 Planet Earth N02 levels are reduce to pre-industrial levels. Miami Beach With the passage of time and the new growth of biospheres within the flooded coasts of Florida, a new and thriving ecosystem has emerged from within the ruins of an abandoned civilization.

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CHAPTER 04

Miami Beach: 2200 | +12.6’ Sea Level 4.10

“Everyone wants a nice happy ending. But that’s not a reality. We’re in for it. We have really done a job warming our oceans, and they’re going to pay us back”. - Hall Wanless Through the use of emerging technologies and the foresight of twenty first century residents of Miami Beach, the community was able to survive and even promote a thriving life in a resilient way by working with instead of against nature. Once again people are choosing to relocate to Miami Beach. The tourism economy which once dominated Miami Beach is once again thriving. Now instead of visiting Miami Beach for a luxury experience, people are choosing to visit to experience the outdoors, and escape the modern confines of mega cities.

Residents who choose to live here have to sacrifice the safety and security, as well as, many modern comforts like power and individual climate control. They do so willingly, knowing that living in a resilient and sustainable way, will help to remedy the environmental catastrophe created by their predecessors. By utilizing anticipatory strategies such as evolving nanotechnologies and planting Bio-mechanical Pleaching Seeds, residents were able to save some of the original Art Deco structures of Miami Beach. Though they appear and function much differently now, they have managed to keep the spirit of old alive in a modern Miami.

Final Remarks 4.11 Through this thesis exploration my beliefs regarding the future of Miami Beach shifted greatly. As I began, I intended to paint a gloomy dystopian picture of what coastal cities around the world would eventually become. It was not until I began to research emerging materials and technologies, that I began to believe there could be a brighter future for Miami Beach. The methods proposed in this thesis are

all based upon existing technologies and systems. If you consider how far we have come with computer technology since the 90’s, imagine how much further we will go in 30 years. I believe that if scientists and designers continue to ask questions about resilience and anticipate future conditions, solutions will be found. Low lying cities around the world have the ability to survive and thrive as the sea level rises.

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Figure 76

Figure 77

Appendix Timeline | Research Thumbnails

APPENDIX

Timeline Condensed Figure 78

• NOAA warns planet could face up to 6.6’ of sea level rise by 2100. • Construction begins to elevate streets by 3 feet, as an effort to prevent king tidal flooding. • $500 million dollar project to install new pump system. • Local governments ignore threat of climate change.

2010

• Locals begin to pressure government for increased preparedness for sea level rise and to reduce impacts of climate change.

2020

-.5 ft

• Global debate over fossil fuel consumption raged at the beginning of the 20th century, and this time was marked by rapid industrial expansion. • Global financial turn-down triggered by sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States. Divide between rich and poor become ever more present. • Citizens are becoming more present of excessive surveillance and privacy intrusion of civil liberties from governments and corporations.

+.2 ft

• Climate change beginning to have significant impact on trade and commodities worldwide, specifically on food and water. • Growing instability in fossil fuels and resources triggers resource wars. • The hunt for remaining resources continues in the arctic, leading to this region becoming an economic and political battleground, as nations attempt to claim remaining deposits.

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APPENDIX

Figure 79

• Street elevation and pump system projects completed. • Eastern coast of Florida devastated by hurricane event. Efforts begin to reopen businesses and make city safe. • 10% of permanent residents make decision to relocate.

2030

• City of Miami Beach, realizes that flooding is immanent. • Sea walls and artificial reefs are erected to attempt to soften blows of hurricanes.

2040

+.7 ft

• Rapid worldwide shift towards clean energy, algae bio-fuel and other renewable sources flourish and are aided by breakthroughs in nanotechnology. • Nations around the world suffer from food shortages and growing influx of refugees affected by climate change, resource wars, and political instability. • Up to 18% of worlds coral reefs are lost due to climate change and environmental stress.

+1.4 ft

• Exponential advances in computing power are taking place, in parallel with genetics, nanotechnology and robotics. Smaller, more complex and sophisticated cellular devices are becoming implantable and integrated with the human body. • These devices aid in combating disease, enhancing the senses and can provide communication and entertainment. • The Ross Sea has lost 75% of its summer ice cover.

Mycological Bio-Composite

High Volume Fly-Ash

Everdure Caltite

Mycobond Mycobond ins a new low embodied energy process of manufacturing, using biological composites mixed with mycellium (mushroom root network} as a binding agent. Using organic binding agents will aid in lessening the carbon footprint of the Portland cement industry.

Salt water and corrosion resistant concrete: Typical production of Portland cement is a process that releases significant amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. In the production of 1 ton of concrete, 1 ton of carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere. By using supplementary cementing materials, such as fly ash, silica fume, and slag, in the concrete add mixture, less Portland cement will be necessary. This process could prevent the carbon footprint of the concrete industry.

Salt water and corrosion resistant concrete: Caltite is a pore blocking hydrophobic add mixture that containing corrosion inhibitors and reduces concretes capillarity to produce ultra low absorption concrete. This mixture of attributes makes the mixture ideal for underwater applications.

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Bio-Medical Scaffolding

Using programmed microbes to create and repair scaffolding structures to aid in cellular construction in medicine and with the advent of CRISPER, this technology had become much more controllable. Targeting specific cellular networks and processes is now possible.

APPENDIX

Figure 79

• Microbial Construction Scaffolding systems move from biomedical to industrial applications. • Drainage pumps now run on a 24 hour cycle, constantly draining infiltrating sea water. • Insurance rates of property sky rocketing after multiple storm events. Tourism market experiences slight decline.

2050

• Sea walls and artificial reefs, prove minimally effective at preventing catastrophic storm damage. • Miami Beach sees worst storm season in 30 years. • Local housing and real estate markets crash. • Beginning of mass Migration from Miami Beach to higher elevations begins. • Local government bankrupt, and issues halt to all construction and repair projects.

2060

• Mankind begins to permanently colonize mars, escaping its crowded and depleting home planet. • AI begins to play a significant role in business and governmental decisions. • Economic growth under major strain worldwide due to ecological impacts, resource scarcity and unemployment due to technological advances and job scarcity. • Nearly ½ of Amazon rainforest’s has been deforested. Continent wide super grids now provide much of the worlds energy distribution needs.

+2.8 ft

• Growing world population begins to plateau. • Entire nations begin to be devastated by the effects of climate change. • Despite changes in technology, human race continues to consume beyond what the earth can sustainable supply. • Flood barriers are erected in New York. • Desperate attempts are made to improve carbon capture and geoengineering methods, but the magnitude of the crisis will persist for decades.

Pleaching

Bio Fabrication

Synthesized Spider Silk

Nanotechnology

Biological Pleaching

Bacterial Composite Bacterias that can be used to fabricate materials containing differing properties such as flexibility, transparency, and tactility. Could potentially be used in construction of composite material fabrics, films, human prosthetics and high performance building panels.

Worlds Smallest Engine: At Cambridge’s Cavendish Laboratory, the worlds smallest engine has been created. Measuring 200 billionths of a meter, which has the capacity of powering nanobots for fighting disease withing cells. Most advances in nanotechnology are being pioneered within the medical industry, but the technology’s applications extend well beyond the biological realm.

Pleaching is to entwine or interlace (tree branches, or vines) to form a hedge or protective cover for an outdoor walkway. This concept is has commonly been adopted for artistic and aesthetic purposes.

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APPENDIX

Figure 80 • Remaining residents develop strategy to stay in Miami Beach. • Residents who refuse to or cannot evacuate Miami Beach, plant Bio-Mechanical Pleaching Seeds on foundations and first levels of strategically selected buildings. • Industry and opportunity has left Miami Beach. Population reduced to 20% of levels at beginning of 21st century. • Sea level has reached 3.5’, the average elevation of Miami Beach, The city is now more than 50% flooded. Flooded condition leads to nearly constant power outages.

2070

• Maintenance nanobots are released on now matured Bio-Mechanical Scaffolding and make repairs as necessary. • With the existing street level now experiencing constant flooding, residents begin construction of bridges linking 3rd floors of remaining structures.The second third will now be utilized as the street once was. • Citizens who have chosen to remain in the city, begin to consolidate and organize at chosen site to begin rebuilding and fortifying structure.

2080

+3.5 ft

• Accelerated space development, expansion of lunar colonies and their automated mining operations. • Full scale environmental catastrophe unfolding on earth, sea levels forcing the large-scale evacuation of cities. • As glaciers disappear, hydro-power dams become obsolete.

+4.2 ft

• With the aid of AI, rapid advances in scientific discoveries are being made. This helps to slow the rise in global temperatures and set path for more sustainable 22nd century. • The average human is becoming more heavily reliant on brain-computer interfaces and other implantable devices. • Deadly heat waves plague Europe. Longer and more frequent drought periods worldwide.

BacillaFilla

Augmented Skin

D-Shape

Climate Responsive Apertures

Concrete healing microbial patch: Microbial Glue Developed as an effort at Newcastle University to repair damaged concrete and prevent catastrophic failure. Once glue is applied to surface, spores begin to germinate, as the cells swarm into the cracks and form calcium carbonate crystals, and release a natural binding agent called levan adhesive.

Hybrid Concrete Casting System A custom casting system developed at London’s Bartlett School of Architecture. This ‘‘Augmented Skin” allows for the creation of complex architectural components to be cast in non traditional forms. This allows for new and unique structures to take form.

3D Printed Stone Enrico Dini, Founder at Monolite, has developed a system in which stone can be 3D printed. Through a mixture of sand and Microcrystalline, stone is created with a binding force stronger than Portland cement. This technology can be used in creating new structural frameworks and networks.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 100

APPENDIX

Figure 80

• Desalinization water towers are erected to supplement fresh water supply. • 87 percent of Miami Beach’s 21 century population have now relocated, leaving 713 total residents remaining on Miami Beach. • With sea level at nearly 5 feet, the portion of the Biscayne Aquifer beneath Miami Beach has become inundated with sea water.

2090

+4.9 ft

• Much of the day to day running of world affairs are now handled exclusively by ultra-fast, ultra-intelligent machines, robots and virtual entities. • 80% of amazon rain forest has been lost. • West Antarctica is among fastest developing regions on earth.

Grow

Fibonacci’s Mashrabiya

Ivy Inspired Solar and Wind Energy Curtain Using flexible organic photovoltaic panels (ivy leafs) grow is able to convert solar energy into electricity. Each leaf is attached to the framework with a piezoelectric generator system, creating additional electricity as the leafs flutter in the wind.

Fractal Environmental Screen Fibonacci’s Mashrabiya is a environmentally inspired screen system. This aperture was created by interpreting historical systems mixed with computer algorithms. This system can be used to provide shade, dictate user views, and control air flow.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 101

APPENDIX

Figure 81

• Concrete and steel become readily available for harvest from the high number of collapsed buildings on Miami Beach. These materials are used to erect a sea wall around the perimeter of the colony. • Buildings begin to collapse across Miami Beach due to corrosions and erosion created by being submerged and tidal impacts. • There is no longer a beach on Miami Beach.

2100 • • • •

• Having relied primarily on trade and wild caught fish to this point, fish farms are constructed both within and outside of sea wall perimeter. • Trees are planted in public spaces to provide shade from Florida sun. • Miami Beach Population begins to slowly rise.

2110

Human intelligence vastly amplified by AI and implants. Nomadic floating cities are being created on worlds oceans. Sea ice animals such as emperor penguins face extinction. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels peak.

+6.3 ft

• Terra-forming of Mars is underway. • Much of world populations have begun to settle and move to once arctic regions. • Large scale arcologies are emerging as an alternative to traditional cities.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 102

APPENDIX

Figure 82

• Original structural members of buildings first levels begin to disappear completely, leaving Bio-Mechanical scaffolding in place as primary structural element. • Sea life begins to populate first floors of remaining structures, creating new biospheres which aid in purification of contaminated sea water.

2120

• Water Level has reached a level where aquatic agriculture becomes possible withing confines of colony. • Sustainable food system are put into place including underwater crops and shellfish harvesting.

2130

+7 ft

• Geophysicists have mapped entirely of earth’s crusts and faults and can now predict earthquakes and tsunamis with computer simulations. • Mind uploading enters main stream society. • It is now expected that building materials used worldwide contain self healing properties, to ensure longevity and waste seen in 21st century.

+7.7 ft

• Large Scale civilian settlement of the Moon is underway. • 30% of earth’s preindustrial species are now extinct.

Solar still

Spinel

Slow Sand Filtration

Mussel Farming

Transparent Armor Developed by the United States Navy, Transparent Armor is a clear armor created using spinel, a type of material that is more durable than traditional glass. Using a newly developed technique called sinthering, naval researchers are able to create transparent, bullet proof spinel sheets that can be formed using a press into various forms and applications.

Selfish Aquaculture Selfish farming, specifically that of filter feeders has the added benefit of aiding in ocean water purification as well as putting food on the table. Being a primary food source for many species of aquatic animals, shellfish farms also promote and attract biodiversity.

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APPENDIX

Figure 83

• People begin to migrate to Miami Beach to escape cramped and confined cities and look for a new way of life. • First generation residents of the colony turn 50 years old.

2140

+8.4 ft

• North American Union is taking shape. • 40% of earths surfaces are now reclassified as new climate zones.

• Population sees vast increase during this period, as more and more people become aware of options of alternate living.

2150

• Interstellar exploration is becoming commonplace. • High-tech, automated cities are new normal.

Fish Farming

Alternative Lifestyle

Hydroponic Agriculture

Under Water Agriculture

Aqua-pod A floating fish cage currently positioned at the Snapperfarm in Puerto Rico is a sphere composed of galvanized steel triangles with steel mesh surfaces is a project in the works towards a self guided mobile fish farm. Allowing for the vessel to move to deeper or shallower waters in response to climactic conditions

Migration There has always been certain people who have chosen not to participate the customary day to day lifestyle of the time. People who would rather look for something different. Escaping the confines of the “civilized world” people will migrate to somewhere where they are able to live how they choose.

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APPENDIX

Figure 84

• Last remaining survivor of pre-flood Miami Beach passes away. Leaving behind a new generation of residents who have never known Miami Beach for what it was, and only for what it is now.

2160

• Tourism begins to return to Miami Beach. • With tourism comes investment in the area. People are beginning to see Miami Beach as a nostalgic looking glass into what life once was and now is in coastal communities world wide.

2170

+9.8 ft

• The world’s first bicentenaries, made possible by unprecedented growth in healthcare technology and bio-mechanical implants.

+10.5 ft

• Mass extinctions are leveling off.

Seaweed Insulation

Biological Concrete

Kevlar Coated Composite

Self Healing PUU

NeptuTherm Every year tonnes of Posidona oceanica (type of seaweed) wash up on beaches and are put in landfills due to their unsightliness. Researchers at the Graunhofer Institute for Chemical Technology, have identified properties of the material that make it a valuable building material, such as its high insulating value, mold resistance, and flame

Bioreceptive Concrete Researchers at the Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, have developed a concrete system which is receptive to biological growth such as mosses, fungi, lichens, and migroalgae, to facilitate the natural, comprehensive colonization of organism growth. This systems high thermal mass lessens electrical and HVAC impacts of structures and aids in reducing CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

PUU Self healing PUU plastics automatically restore themselves when cut or damaged. Scientists at Spain’s IK4-CIDETEC Research Center have created a material capable of spontaneous quantitative healing without the use of any external stimulants such as heat or light. This self healing polymer can both heal itself when experiencing small cracks, but also when cut entirely in half.

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APPENDIX

Figure 85

• More colonies begin to emerge along Florida’s coasts. • In addition to those who have moved to Miami Beach colonies in search of an alternative lifestyle, people begin to move here in search of employment in a thriving tourism and hospitality market.

2180

+11.2 ft

• Mystery of the flatworms regenerative properties for human consumption resolved through use of artificial intelligence. • Breakthrough have been made in finding a cure for aging.

Tactile Ceramics

Flatworm Regeneration

Platyhelminthes Using artificial intelligent computing, scientists at Tufts University, Massachusetts, have worked out the mechanisms involved in incredible regenerative capability of the flatworm. This discovery could lead to regrowth of organic anatomy, including regrowing limbs in human beings.

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 106

APPENDIX

Figure 86

• With the passage of time and new growth of biospheres within flooded coasts of Florida, a new and thriving ecosystem has emerged within the ruins of an abandoned civilization.

2190

+11.9 ft

• N02 levels are reduce to pre-industrial levels.

2200

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 107

APPENDIX

MIAMI BEACH 2200

RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY Abraham E. Arregui

Figure 87

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APPENDIX

Works Cited: Beatley, Timothy. Planning for Coastal Resilience: Best Practices for Calamitous Times. Washington, DC: Island Press, 2009. Bergdoll, Barry. Rising Currents: Projects for New York’s Waterfront. New York : London: Museum of Modern Art : Distributed in the United States and Canada by D.A.P./ Distributed Art Publishers ; Distributed outside the United States and Canada by Thames & Hudson, 2011. Brownell, Blaine. “Transmaterial: A Catalog of Materials That Redefine Our Physical Environment.” Mycobond, May 5, 2011. http://transmaterial.net. Brownell, Blaine Erickson, ed. Transmaterial 2: A Catalog of Materials That Redefine Our Physical Environment. New York: Princeton Architectural Press, 2008. Brownell, Blaine Erickson, ed. Transmaterial 3: A Catalog of Materials That Redefine Our Physical Environment. 1st ed. New York, N.Y: Princeton Architectural Press, 2010. Brownell, Blaine Erickson, ed. Transmaterial: A Catalog of Materials That Redefine Our Physical Environment. New York: Princeton Architectural Press, 2006. Brownell, Blaine Erickson,Transmaterial next: A Catalog of Materials That Redefine Our Future. First edition. New York: Princeton Architectural Press, 2017. Building Resilient Regions, Institute of Governmental Studies, University of California Berkeley. “Resilience Capacity Index.” Accessed November 6, 2017. http://brr.berkeley. edu/rci/. FEMA. “Integrating Hazard Mitigation Into Local Planning.” FEMA, March 1, 2013. Fox, Will. “Timeline.” Futuretimeline.Net (blog), 2018. https://www.futuretimeline.net/ timeline.htm. Glavovic, Bruce C., and Gavin P. Smith, eds. Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons from Natural Hazards Planning. Environmental Hazards. Dordrecht: Springer, 2014. Godschalk, David R., ed. Natural Hazard Mitigation: Recasting Disaster Policy and Planning. Washington, D.C: Island Press, 1999. Gunderson, Lance H., Craig R. Allen, and C. S. Holling, eds. Foundations of Ecological Resilience. Washington: Island Press, 2010. “IPCC.” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2010. Clossary E-I. “Glossary E-I.” AR4 SYR Synthesis Report Annexes - Glossary E-I. Accessed November 04, 2017. http:// www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/annexessglossary-e-i.html. RESILIENT SURVIVABILITY 109

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Lobo D, Levin. “Inferring Regulatory Networks from Experimental Morphological Phenotypes: A Computational Method Reverse-Engineers Planarian Regeneration.” Plos Computational Biology 11 (June 4, 2015). http://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/ article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004295. Mazria, Edward. “Architecture 2030 Challenge.” Architecture2030.org, 2015. http:// architecture2030.org/2030_challenges/2030-challenge/. Mazria, Edward, and Kristina Kershner. “Nation Under Siege: Sea Level Rise at Our Doorstep.” 2030 Research Center September 2007 (n.d.). Parker, Laura. “Treading Water ‘Climate Change Economics.’” National Geographic Febuary 2015 (n.d.). http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2015/02/climate-change-economics/ parker-text. Paton, Douglas, and David Moore Johnston, eds. Disaster Resilience: An Integrated Approach. Second edition. Springfield, Illinois: Charles C Thomas, Publisher, Ltd, 2017. Pomeroy, Jason. POG: Pod off-Grid: Explorations into Low Energy Waterborne Communities. Erscheinungsort nicht ermittelbar: ORO Editions, 2016. Roshko, Tijen. “The Floating Dwellings of Chong Kneas, Cambodia.” Buildings & Landscapes: Hournal of the Vernacular Architecture Forum 18, no. No. 2 (Fall 2011): 43–59. Shuster, Eric, and Department of Energy. “‘Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants,’ National Energy Technology Laboratory.” 2007. “The New Orleans Principles. New Orleans Planning Charrette.” U.S. Green Building Counil, 2005. “The Resilient Design Principles.” The Resilient Design Institute, 2013 2012. http://www. resilientdesign.org/the-resilient-design-principles/. Walker, B. H., and David Salt. Resilience Thinking: Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing World. Washington, DC: Island Press, 2006. Wilson, A. “Passive Survivability.” Environmental Building News 14, no. 12 (n.d.). http:// www.buil- dinggreen.com/auth/article.cfm/2005/12/1/Passive-Survivability/. World Commission on Environment and Development, ed. Our Common Future. Oxford Paperbacks. Oxford ; New York: Oxford University Press, 1987.

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