Things are looking up, but chefs continue to navigate certain challenges

By Howard Riell

The state of the culinary industry heading into 2023 is looking up, with strength continuing to return as the damage caused by the pandemic recedes in the rear-view mirror.

That said, the number of boxes that successful chefs across all segments will need to check in the coming year continues to grow and will include such diverse elements as staffing, corporate culture, labor scarcity, lifestyle, career guidance, food trends, national and regional economic pressures, lingering supply chain difficulties, sustainability and consumers’ emphasis on health and wellness.

One thing the culinary world can look forward to in the new year is growth. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, many operations will continue making up for lost ground. Executive Chef Thaddaeus Smith , director of brand communications at The Sterno Group in Corona, California, says that in 2023, “We are actually returning to pre-pandemic levels of catering activity in many segments of the catering industry. For example, weddings: This segment is seeing one of the biggest years in generations. Social catering is trending toward 2019 numbers. Nonprofit galas are also seeing a strong return.”

ACF Chef Timothy Recher, CEC, AAC , director of culinary operations at the Quail West Golf and Country Club in Naples, Florida, says that Southwest Florida continues to see “significant” increases in business. “We found that many people moved to Florida during the pandemic for numerous reasons, and our membership has increased to a maximum capacity.” In addition, those members who were already on hand tend to use the club with greater frequency, Chef Recher says. “All our outlets and events are booked well in advance, and we are working on finding ways to increase our capacity, including adding a new restaurant for the upcoming season.”

Different segments’ fortunes will obviously be shaped by different dynamics, with varying results. For example, Mark Brandau, associate director of research and insights for Datassential, a Chicago-based thirdparty research firm, cites Datassential’s 2022 Healthcare Segment Guide, produced in partnership with the

International Foodservice Manufacturers Association, which reported that the market for healthcare facility foodservice was projected to grow 5.1% in 2023. This matched the increase that Datassential estimated for the entire foodservice industry and exceeded what was projected for the quick-service (3.1%), fastcasual (1.5%) and midscale restaurant (0.2%) segments.

“Consumers will face trade-offs in the coming year if high inflation eats through what they managed to save during the pandemic or through gains in wages,” Brandau explains.

Menus Matter

Success in 2023 will require a strong focus on, and decisive action in, a variety of areas, including menu trends (see sidebar). The National Restaurant Association’s What’s Hot 2023 Culinary Forecast points to elevated experiences, comfort fare and menu streamlining as the top three macro trends forecasted for this year. Other emerging trends include charcuterie boards, fried chicken sandwiches at lunchtime, globally inspired salads and Southeast Asian cuisines like Vietnamese, Singaporean and Filipino food.

“Despite the dominance of off-premises restaurant use, pent-up demand for restaurant experiences — socialization, celebration, culinary exploration — is strong,” the report states.

Another phenomenon impacting the industry is the evolution of remote work, which is profoundly disrupting the typical dayparts and effectively dissolving traditional meal and work times, according to the association’s forecast. “With the convenience of accessing any kind of meal or snack through delivery, curbside pickup, counter pickup and drive-thru, any time of day or night, food ordering presents a unique opportunity to entice customers.”

Moreover, as dayparts continue to blur, the proliferation of hand-held items, bowls, sandwiches, wraps and new sandwich carriers like French toast sticks and chicken-andwaffle sandwiches will serve to satisfy growing customer demand for convenience around the clock, the report states.

ACF Chef Ryan Manning, CC , owner of MX Taco in Orlando, agrees that menu and operational streamlining will be of utmost importance, saying that as the restaurant segment heads into 2023, it is struggling with drastic price increases on both food and dry goods. “As we approach this, we are working on streamlining staffing and adjusting the way the plate looks,” he says. This involves shrinking protein sizes and creating an added perceived value in other parts of the plate, as well as increasing pricing.

Food costs, labor costs and finding quality employees will remain major issues, Chef Manning adds, as chefs continue to switch to self-service point-of-sale systems and adjust their staffing matrixes. Chefs will also look at modifying plates and adding value items like starches, vegetables, sauces and garnishes to offset the cost of proteins. “I also feel like vegan main plate items are starting to level out in the market rather than being as strong as in years past.”

Chef Manning also expects to see “more impressivelooking” plating from chefs across the world. “You can see this trend on international chefs’ social media accounts,” he says. “For example, I saw a chef reinvent braised red cabbage as a coulis instead of a traditional braised cabbage.”

Plant-based alternatives will continue to proliferate, according to some. ACF Chef Kathleen Vossenberg, CEC, CCE, M.Ed., vice president of academic affairs for the Auguste Escoffier School of Culinary Arts, foresees less of an emphasis on meat substitutes and more on plant-forward dishes that feel familiar to meat eaters. “Think of a succulent risotto made with a broth rich of miso and a variety of wild mushrooms versus an animal-based stock; it’s a classic cooking technique that develops loads of flavor with plantforward ingredients,” she says.

Chef Vossenberg points to Sodexo executives who say they have committed to making 42% of the menus in their university dining segment plant-based by 2035 in an effort to deliver what their guests want and to reduce their carbon footprint. Unfortunately, she laments, many chefs are not well versed in the techniques needed to create a balanced plant-forward meal. “Simply skipping the meat isn’t enough, so the industry as a whole needs more education to effectively deliver on this piece of the menu that the public wants.” The better chefs will continue to experiment and learn, she predicts, “while figuring out this new world.”

Lifestyle Shifts

More than ever, chefs in 2023 will place an emphasis on lifestyle as they design and manage their careers.

“We are now looking at work-life balance more seriously, providing insurance and development programs to create better working environments,” says Chef Tiffany Derry, co-founder of Dallas, Texas-based T2D Concepts, LLC (Roots Southern Table, Roots Chicken Shak), and founder of Tiffany Derry Concepts. “It causes you to take a hard look at your business and adjust for the better. I think we’ll see more creativity and innovation next year.”

Chef Derry feels that a major issue facing the industry going forward will be the fair treatment of its workers. “Restaurant working conditions have long been categorized as grueling — famous for long, hard hours. It’s important that our current generation of restaurant owners and operators step up and take action to reverse the negative connotation associated with hospitality careers.”

Long-Term Labor

Staffing will continue to prove a challenge — and employers will need to find new ways to innovate.

ACF Chef Ray McCue, CEC, AAC, M.Ed., president of the ACF Rhode Island chapter and associate professor at the College of Food Innovation & Technology at Johnson & Wales University in Providence, Rhode Island, says he is starting to see a “paradigm shift” across the foodservice industry.

Labor issues will remain a problem in the foreseeable future, Chef McCue foresees, and so companies “are continuing to recruit and attract employees in a variety of ways, from sign-on bonuses to free bus passes/transportation to and from work and offering unique work shifts to accommodate other personal demands.”

“Without a doubt,” says Quail West’s Chef Recher, chefs in his segment “have to constantly work on our staffing levels — recruiting and retaining quality culinarians at all levels,” which he calls his first priority. “We have focused on recruiting but also building a culture that inspires and attracts the best people. We have to think differently now. It's not all about dollars and cents, but a true internal community of not just work but belonging and growth. People want to be inspired, treated with respect and feel like they can make a contribution.”

Changing Consumer Desires

Americans will continue to expect more than just great cuisine from their dining choices, seeking things like shared values and memorable experiences.

Inflation, however, is changing how customers spend their restaurant dollars in a greater search for value, and “operators will continue to promote meal deals, family bundles and culinary kits that meet at the intersection of craving and budgetary caution,” the National Restaurant Association’s forecast states. Still, “Even in inflationary times, consumers want to use restaurants. The challenge for operators is to stay interesting and relevant to attract consumers who are looking to experience food they can’t replicate at home.”

“There is this ongoing comparison to what we saw during the economic turn in 2008,” says Chef Marilyn Schlossbach , owner of the Asbury Park, New Jersey-based Marilyn Schlossbach Group, which includes the Langosta Lounge, Pop’s Garage, Asbury Park Yacht Club, Salt Water Cafe, The Whitechapel Projects, Tini’s Fish House and Marilyn Schlossbach Catering and Events. “I find that in times of turmoil we look to comfort and simplicity. People want to feel good about spending their time and money. They want to be taken away from their daily life and find joy and release.” For that reason, she believes it is important for chefs to provide what she terms “a sense of simple goodness.”

Chef Michael Ayoub, owner of Fornino, a wood-fired pizzeria concept with three locations in Brooklyn, New York, points to organic, plant-based and sustainability as three of the most significant consumer buzzwords for 2023 and beyond. “People are more health-conscious after the pandemic and consider their health more (seriously) than before,” he says. As a result, he feels, the major consumer trends toward health and sustainability will grow stronger. “Chefs and operators concerned about health and sustainability will continue to see how they can make better choices while still making tasty food.”

“Sustainability is another big concern,” Chef Vossenberg says, “from reduced-waste packaging to employee work-life balance to the financial health of restaurants. All of it rolls up under sustainable operations and continues to be a topic that is often talked about throughout the industry.”

Indeed, the National Restaurant Association’s forecast states, “how menus fit with environment, sustainability and governance (ESG) is a key consideration for operators who want to build relevance with customers. ESG extends to packaging, sustainable farming and finding value in — and using up — all foods. And while nutrition and sustainability continue to influence our food system, it’s flavor that sells food and you’ll find myriad instances throughout these lists where globally inspired seasonings and dishes drew votes.”

The Supply Chain Situation

“We fully expect 2023’s food trends to be shaped by the world’s economy and world events,” says Executive Chef Rob Harrison of Agave & Rye in Covington, Kentucky, which operates 13 gourmet taco and spirits restaurants. “If something happens to impact the supply chain, that has a direct impact on our own food supply.”

Chef Harrison feels that chefs “have to be nimble because we are still feeling the effects of supply chain interruptions, especially in terms of produce and equipment.” He and his colleagues anticipate, for example, seeing more breakfast offerings served at dinner. “In that we’re seeing guests crave homestyle dishes and comfort food, breakfast-for-dinner offerings would allow diners to enjoy the nostalgia that comes with menu items like that.”

The coming year will see what Chef George Zappas, founder of CookinGenie, a home-chef service based in Hudson, Ohio, calls “a focus on impact — what does that look like on a local level up to a global level? Coming out of the pandemic, we have seen a renewing of hyper-local (sourcing). The effect of the supply chain has shown us that we cannot just rely on commodities but need to be more diligent on what we get and how we get it.”

Turning to Technology

The adaptation of technology, from online ordering to reservation apps and QR code menus, will also expand in 2023, chefs say.

“While we still value in-person dining and experiences, the technology that has developed over the years within our industry has been helpful to keep things organized and efficient,” Chef Derry says. “In 2023, I expect to see more and more restaurants implement technology in their business structure to maximize the customer experience and employee productivity.”

Technological solutions are still “in top demand,” Johnson & Wales’ Chef McCue says. “Chefs are constantly being asked to do more with less,” and as a result, are “streamlining menus and utilizing combi equipment and circulators in off hours to get the job done.”

The year ahead, he adds, will also see more unique equipment come into the market that will use artificial intelligence and programs to help make chefs’ lives easier.

Evolving Education

Building for the future will continue to mean upgrading education in the present.

Chef Vossenberg says that in 2023, Escoffier will continue expanding program offerings to better meet the needs of students and employers alike. In addition to traditional degrees and diplomas, “people are seeking more choices in their education options, which can include shorter runways and stackable credentials. Newcomers are seeking an education that allows them a faster entry point to the industry, while established cooks and chefs are seeking additional credentials in areas such as plant-based cuisine and holistic nutrition and wellness to broaden their career prospects.”

The challenges are many, and yet the prospects for the year ahead inspire optimism. Despite the daunting task of dealing with these and a host of other pressures, Chef McCue concludes, “It isn't all doom and gloom. I think the only thing constant is change, and simply we must improvise, adapt and overcome.”

His advice to colleagues for the year ahead is to “be optimistic and take care of yourself first, mentally, physically and emotionally. Know when you need a break and take it. Be willing to lend a hand to a colleague that is in need, and they may just return a favor.”