U.S. & Caribbean Hotel Industry Performance Jan D. Freitag Senior Vice President jan@str.com @jan_freitag © 2017 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
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Agenda •
Total US Review
•
2017 / 2018 Forecast
•
Caribbean Overview
•
Caribbean Pipeline
...Then Parris Will Comment On Island Performance
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www.hotelnewsnow.com Data Dashboard>View All Data Presentations
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Total U.S. Review
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September 2017 YTD: Demand Growth Continues To Hold % Change
Room Supply Room Demand Occupancy (*Record*) A.D.R. RevPAR Room Revenue
67.4% $127 $86
1.8% 2.5% 0.6% 2.0% 2.6% 4.5%
YTD September 2017, Total US Results © 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
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In Terms Of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, September 2017 was the most active month on record http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Harvey: 63 People Killed >$70bn in Damage
Irma: 134 People Killed >$63bn in Damage
Maria: 66 People Killed >$51bn in Damage
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US September RevPAR: 2 States Helped Mask Very Mediocre Results
Total US:
+2.4% Florida: Texas:
Total US excluding Florida and Texas:
+10.0% +18.3%
+0.7%
*RevPAR % Change, September 2016 © 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
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RevPAR Growth: 7 Years And Counting 15 10 5 0
111 Months
91 Months
56 Months
-5 -10 -15 -20 -25 1990
2000
2010
Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 1/1990 – 9/2017 © 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
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Pipeline
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US Pipeline: Hurricanes Impact Pipeline Numbers. I/C Growth only +6%
Phase
2017
2016
% Change
In Construction
188
178
6%
Final Planning
222
197
13%
Planning
175
174
0.5%
Under Contract
585
549
7%
*Total US Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, September 2017 and 2016
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Good News (?): Rooms In Construction Still Below The Feb. Peak of 194K Rooms (000s)
200
% Change
40
Rooms ('000s) (LHS)
35
% Change YoY (RHS)
190
30 25
180
20
170
15 10
160
5 0
150 2016
2017
*Total U.S Pipeline, Rooms In Construction and % Change from Same Month Prior Year, 1/2016 – 9/2017
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Limited Service Construction Is The Name Of The Game
83% 59.4
63.7
24.2
20.2 9.8
8.6
2.6 Luxury
Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale
*US Pipeline, Rooms In Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, September 2017
Economy
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F&B Performance
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C&B Revenue per Group Roomnight Food
Beverage
Other
$91 $158
$54
$29
$96
$22 $35
$12
Luxury $279
Upper Upscale $163
$4
Upscale $61
Catering & Banquets Revenue Contribution per Group Roomnight, by Class June 2017 12MMA
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2017 / 2018 Forecast
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Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2017F – 2018F
Outlook 2017 Forecast
2018 Forecast
Supply
2.0%
2.1%
Demand
2.0%
1.9%
Occupancy
0.0%
-0.2%
ADR
2.3%
2.5%
RevPAR
2.3%
2.3%
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Caribbean Overview
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RevPAR: September Hurt. The PR Push For 2018 Starts Now.
September YTD + 0.8%
September -16.6%
*Caribbean RevPAR, YTD and September, 2017 © 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
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September Country Performance: Occ Declines Severe
*Caribbean OCC & ADR % Change, September 2017 © 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
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Caribbean RevPAR Cycle
*Caribbean RevPAR % Change 12MMA 1/10 – 8/17 © 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
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Caribbean Pipeline
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Caribbean Pipeline Sept 2017
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Healthy Growth Rates Across All Phases
Phase
2017
2016
% Change
In Construction
17.5
14
25%
Final Planning
15
11
37%
Planning
9.7
7.6
27%
Under Contract
42.2
32.7
29%
*Caribbean Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, September 2017 and 2016
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(Not Surprisingly) Pipeline Skews Towards The High End 43% 4.1 3.6
3.6
2.4
1.8
1.7
0.3 Luxury
Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale
*Caribbean Pipeline, In Construction, ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, September 2017
Economy
Unaffiliated © 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
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Questions? Presentation is available for download. To view this presentation, click “STR Data Presentations” from the drop-down menu on www.HotelNewsNow.com.
© 2017 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
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