Housing snapshot

Yes, Halifax, we have a housing crisis

BY JANET WHITMAN

ILLUSTRATIONS BY BRYANNA CHAPESKIE

We asked Neil Lovitt, the city’s expert in real-estate economics, for the most telling statistics on the red-hot rental and homebuying markets.

“Are things as bad as they seem for renters/buyers?” says the vice-president of planning and economic intelligence with real-estate consultancy Turner Drake & Partners Ltd. “Yes.”

COVID-19 gave renters a tiny break by prompting Nova Scotia to implement emergency rent controls and putting a damper on the usual influx of international students, migration from other provinces, and immigration. But the rental market’s been tight since about 2017. “Rent control won’t fix a lack of available units at any price,” Lovitt says.

Home-buying was already heating up in 2019. The pandemic set the market ablaze. “It is remarkably more expensive now and continues to get worse for buyers,” says Lovitt.

Contrary to popular belief, the growth story during the pandemic is not all about people flooding in from Ontario, British Columbia, and other provinces to flee COVID and live a simpler life. The greater impact is the huge decline in people moving from Nova Scotia to other provinces, such as Alberta for oil patch jobs.

“The pandemic seemed to drive a burst of migration from other provinces early in 2020,” says Lovitt. “But for the year overall, fewer people arrived compared to 2019, and 2021 isn’t off to a strong start.” Things will likely pick up as the province opens up, he says. And, of course, some people are buying before they even set foot in the province.

By the numbers

The sweet spot for apartment vacancies, considered balanced for both renters and apartment owners: 4%

Apartment vacancy rate in 2019, the tightest on record: 1.0%

Apartment hunters had slightly better luck in 2020 as the vacancy rate increased, helped as COVID curbed the usual influx of international students, immigrants, and people moving from other provinces: 1.9%

The softer vacancy rate wasn’t enough to ease up increasing median rents in 2020: $1,099

Percentage gain in four years: 22.1%

The typical spring surge of homes listed for sale across the municipality failed to materialize in March 2021: 107

Versus March 2018: 436

Average listing for each home sold so far in 2021: 1.0

In 2018: 5.3

In 2019: 3.4

Bidding wars have sent the median sale price surging so far in 2021: $456,954.

Percentage increase over the same period in 2018, a gain fueled by rising prices and growing demand for higher-priced homes as low interest rates enable people to afford more house for the same mortgage payment: 40.8%

The median sales price peak for single-family homes and condos, in May 2021: $500,000

The price in July 2021: $424,825

In a trend that started in 2020, the average sold price was above the listing price, reflecting rampant bidding wars, as in July 2021’s asking price ratio, as a percentage: 109%

The peak, in April and June: 112%

The ratio for most of 2018: 97%

Number of people relocating to Nova Scotia from elsewhere in Canada in 2020: 17,183

In 2019: 18,136

Number of people leaving Nova Scotia for elsewhere in Canada in 2020: 13,020.

In 2019: 14,371

* Data sources: Turner Drake, CMHC, StatsCan, Nova Scotia Association of Realtors Infosparks