Flying - I love Flying: An Inspirational Journal for Your Flying and Travel Adventures

FLYING

I Love Flying: An Inspirational Journal for Your Flying and Travel Adventures

Written By: Lia Ocampo

Why do you fly, and why do you travel? Some people travel for work, business, adventure, and to get out of their comfort zone. Others use travel to reflect, to escape, to relax, to celebrate, to learn, to build relationships, to meet amazing people, to create wonderful memories, or to become a new person.

Suddenly, the world has stopped flying because of the coronavirus pandemic. The pandemic has changed the world of travel.

The impact of the COVID-19 has devastated airlines worldwide. Demands have fallen because of fear of

COVID-19 and global efforts to stop the spread of the virus. Airlines are trying to survive. Planes have been grounded, and many employees are taking advantage of the voluntary unpaid leave and retirement programs. Others have lost their jobs because of massive layoffs and furloughs. The pandemic has even forced some airlines to go out of business.

It is for these reasons I created the I Love Flying journal: to honor those who have lost their lives to COVID-19, to show admiration for the frontline workers in the aviation and travel industries, to encourage globetrotters to continue their passion for travel, to inspire people to explore the world, to advocate flying with precautionary measures, to uplift the spirit of traveling, and shed some hope in these challenging times.

While recovery advances and the progress against the COVID-19 continues, more travelers will venture out and fly again. I am so excited to share this unique journal that you can take along on your next adventure. I used my own photos to show a different perspective of the world through flying. Traveling and flying reconnect us with ourselves and with others. It can bring out the best in us. It

can empower us.

If you love flying and traveling, I encourage you to write your own stories and create your book of life. Writing your thoughts and memories about your flying experiences and travel adventures is a way to reflect. I Love Flying can be a time capsule of people, places, and experiences you have encountered. If you are like me, you may forget some details of your travels, but writing them down is a way to help preserve those memories. You can always look back to this journal and share your stories with your friends and family.

Set your travel goals. Fill-in your bucket list. Find an adventure. Discover a new country. Enjoy the experience. Remember those memories. Capture beautiful moments. And see for yourself the magnificent world in which we live.

I hope that through the I Love Flying Journal, you build inspiration to create more beautiful stories and memories. Keep flying. Keep traveling. Stay tuned to more in future issues in the new (I love) FLYING column.

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About the Author

Lia Ocampo is a passionate flight attendant and author. Her flying experiences give her the opportunity to meet amazing people and create wonderful memories. Read More...

MONEY

We Can be Cautiously Optimistic

Written By: James C. Knapp

Investors seem to be fairly optimistic as markets are hovering near or at all-time highs.

This has caused some investors to wonder if this optimism has gotten ahead of itself raising the risk of a market pullback (or worse). Investors ask if this is a continuation of the bull market, the start of a new bull market or will it lead to a market sell-off?

Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Historians and journalists have the luxury of waiting for time to pass to declare a narrative for a certain time period. Unfortunately, investors don’t have time to wait as the ramifications can be detrimental to your financial progress (aka “flight plan”).

Similar to how pilots prepare flight plans to adjust for dynamic and changing risks, I believe an investor’s primary focus should be on their portfolio risk. Specifically, understanding investment risk is a vital concept as it is related to loss.

For example, the more portfolio risk that is taken, the greater the loss potential may be when markets decline. Investors tackle this phenomenon by applying educated assumptions in an attempt to avoid catastrophic damage over time. This is in the same vein of virtually every professional field, e.g., a surgeon speaking to probabilities, not certainties. These potential outcomes are based on historical data and events, statistics, trends, sentiment, etc., in an effort to manage portfolio risk and to avoid permanent loss of capital.

Albert Einstein said, “Know where to find information and how to use it – that is the secret to success.” Let’s review some recently released data as a starting point. This is not meant to be all-encompassing.

It would seem that the economic recovery is gaining steam. In fact, so much so that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) had to raise the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2021 by more than three percentage points this week (from 3.2% to 6.5%).

Among the world’s largest economies, the OECD raised it economic growth forecast for the United States by the most. But India’s economy – the world’s fifth largest – actually saw the biggest upgrade of 4.7 percentage points. Australia, Canada, and Brazil also saw solid increases of one percentage point or more. On the other side of the coin, France and Italy saw slight downgrades. The OECD only sees 3.9% GDP growth in the Euro area in 2021, well shy of the forecasts for the U.S., Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and much of the emerging world. Europe has been slower to open up its economies as its COVID-19 vaccine program has lagged well behind that in the U.S., Japan, or broadly emerging markets right now.

At first glance, these GDP projections can make an investor feel optimistic. Though, it is helpful to appreciate the nuance in the numbers. They are derived from a “base-effect,” meaning the coming year is compared to the previous year. As we all know, 2020 was a challenging business environment so comparing 2021 to 2020 numbers may not provide the full story.

For balance, the weekly jobless claims data continue to show around 730,000 according to the Department of Labor, and continuing jobless claims are around 4.42 million people which are signs of the economic damage that still exists. (Again, not a complete list, but merely to be used as a starting point.)

While it is important to have your investments work to make money, I believe it is more important not to lose money. I believe that through understanding what drives market returns over time, rather than trying to predict future market movements, investors can begin to understand the impact the market has on psychology and investor behavior.

In the short run, stock market movements are completely random; though it is essential to be aware of the evidence and clues presented.

The Knapp Advisory Group is here to be your resource. Contact me at JAMES.KNAPP@KNAPPADVISORY.COM.

James C. Knapp, AIF®, BFA™, CPFA® www.KNAPPADVISORY.com

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a Registered Investment Advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC

The material and opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Portions of the materials have been prepared by LPL Financial.

All index and market data from FactSet and MarketWatch.

About the Author

James C. Knapp founded Knapp Advisory Group to help professionals and retirees make informed decisions with their financial affairs. Read More...

SQUALL LINE

Low-Level Jet Streams and their Hazards to Flight Written By: Anthony Lorenti

Ibring to your attention the existence of low-level jet streams or “low-level jets” (LLJ), as they are sometimes called. Some guidance on LLJs might promote better situational awareness (SA) and help you be safer the next time you fly.

I am not a Meteorologist and I am quick to disclaim any special weather knowledge above and beyond what any professional pilot should know about the atmosphere, which holds true for this information. My efforts are to trigger your interest and awareness.

The jet stream

You already know the definition of and the effects jet streams (upper-level) can have on aircraft. See the basic definition here: jet stream | Wind Maps | Weather Underground (wunderground.com). The key distinctions between the jet stream (upper-level) and a low-level jet (LLJ) are:

1. Altitude

2. Conditions that occur and how they affect the aircraft at high or low altitudes 3. Pilot expectations

By referring to the above-linked definition of a jet stream, you will see the range and general altitudes in which you can expect to encounter the jet stream. Upperlevel jet stream wind speeds can be well into the hundreds of knots. Low-level jets have been known to approach wind speeds of 70-80 knots.

The basic definition or criteria for a low-level jet is that of strong winds close to the surface (5,000 feet or less). You can find multiple sources for the definition, but this description is our basic premise ¬– it’s our nonmeteorologist definition.

Hazards – turbulence and wind shear

At the upper levels, you’re all too familiar with the potential hazards brought by the jet stream, the primary of which is turbulence (most often due to wind shear). Sometimes, turbulence causes an aircraft to lose altitude or at least struggle to maintain it. At 33,000, feet you have a lot to lose – literally. At altitudes where LLJs are common, you don’t necessarily have the luxury of losing altitude.

LLJs are often components of intense or exceptional weather systems (i.e. pre-cursors to severe weather). In this regard, surface winds can be very strong in environments where LLJs exist. They won’t (or at least shouldn’t) however, be 80 knots at the surface. At some point, the winds will drop off precipitously (relative to one another) as you leave the LLJ altitude toward the surface. Watch out for and expect wind shear. The presence of an LLJ will imply wind shear. Operationally, the only way to infer an LLJ is through the TAF and the contraction like “W/S 50 KT 2000”. Brief and configure your approaches accordingly.

With all this known, the primary hazard associated with LLJs is the pronounced effect they could have on aircraft at low levels. Wind shear and turbulence are much

greater risks to flight safety closer to the ground. This is why you need to know they are there in the first place.

Help a controller

The presence of a low-level jet is not necessarily advertised. If one day you are flying along at 3000 feet on approach vectors and see a 60-knot wind, you’re probably flying within an LLJ. You have just found one! What do you do about it? Do you complain about the vectors the controller just gave you, causing you to overshoot the final? Pilots shouldn’t! You should give a PIREP and slow down somewhat to:

1. Compensate for the effect on ground track to help controllers provide better vectors. 2. Be ready for at least moderate turbulence by being closer to maneuvering speed. 3. Be proactive. Where to find an LLJ.

There are no specific aviation weather products that show or illustrate an LLJ. The resources you have to indirectly infer the forecast of an LLJ are:

1. The TAF and its mention of W/S at certain altitudes

2. Winds Aloft Forecasts, but be wary, the Winds

Aloft Forecasts lack the precise resolution to directly illustrate an LLJ.

These two points considered, there is one place where you can learn of LLJ prognostications. This place is the “Area Forecast Discussion.” Without getting too heavily into an entirely different discussion, Area Forecast Discussions are plain-English weather forecasts that are NWS meteorologists’ reasoning and logic in a range of forecasts. As such, low-level jets are one of the things the meteorologists specifically address.

Summary

Low-level jets are jet-stream-like winds close to the surface. Often, they are components of and precursors to severe weather. Their existence can pose turbulence and wind shear hazards. Also, they can wreak havoc on the efficiency of the air traffic system. While knowledge of their existence is not readily available to pilots, it still can be ascertained by the conscientious pilot. You have:

1. Basic awareness and definition

2. What “W/S” might imply in a TAF 3. Awareness that you can also use winds aloft charts to vaguely infer LLJs. 4. Knowledge that forecasts and presence of LLJs is available to pilots if they know where to look (in the

Area Forecast Discussion)

Understanding LLJs and how you fly and configure your airplane in environments where LLJs exist is of paramount importance to aviation safety. A more knowledgeable pilot is a better pilot.

About the Author

Anthony Lorenti is an ATP, CFI, Fire Fighter and EMT with a Bachelors degree in Business Managament. Read More...