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The City ,o1 EdmantoTi
Prepared by: Lillian Dean, Planner William Symonds, Planning Assistant Ethel Weisbeck, Planning Assistant Irwin Reed, Planning Assistant Betty Gunnlaugson, Clerk-Typist With Technical Assistance from: Alex Kachmar, Planner Bir Dohl, Planner Meryn Kowton, Industrial Land Program Leo LeClerc, Business Development Department Phil Walker, Realty Development Office
S. C. Rodgers, Superintendent, City of Edmonton Planning Department L. D. O'neil, Director, Research and Long Range Planning Branch.
CONTENTS
Page CONTENTS
i
LIST OF TABLES
iv
LIST OF FIGURES
vi
DEFINITIONS
xxii
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS CHAPTER 1: AN OVERVIEW OF THE EDMONTON ECONOMY A. B. C. D.
1
Introduction Why Industry? Historical Development of the Edmonton Economy Overview of the Edmonton Economy
CHAPTER 11: EMPLOYMENT AND INDUSTRIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT TRENDS: 1961-1970 A. B. C. D. E. F.
vii
15
Introduction Employment Trends: Edmonton Metropolitan Area Industrial Areas in Edmonton Availability of Serviced Industrial Land in Edmonton Industrial Planning and Land Development in Edmonton Industrial Areas Surrounding Edmonton
CHAPTER 111: FUTURE ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR THE EDMONTON SUB-REGION A. The Nature of Employment Projections B. The Emerging Post-Industrial Society C. Edmonton in Relation to the Economy of Canada D. Edmonton in Relation to the Prairie Provinces E. Northern Development F. Athabasca Tar Sands G. Western Canadian Markets H. Railroad Freight Rates I. Air Transportation Routes and Connections ..1: Automation and New Technology K. Federal and Provincial Policies
59
Page CHAPTER IV: EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS AND DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL LAND - 1970-1981 A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. L. M. N. O. P. Q.
99
Introduction Potential Growth of Individual Industries Transportation and Warehousing Construction Oil and Gas-Related Offices and Services Food and Beverage Manufacturing Clothing Manufacturing Primary Metals Manufacturing Metal Fabricating Manufacturing Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing Chemicals and Allied Products Manufacturing Printing, Publishing, and Allied Products Manufacturing Paper Products, Wood Products and Furniture Products Manufacturing Employment Projections for the Edmonton Sub-Region 1981 Industrial Land Demand Projections: Edmonton Sub-Region Future Demand for Industrial Land Services Recommendations for Planning and Future Research
CHAPTER V: INDUSTRIAL LAND POLICY AND THE SHORT SUPPLY OF AVAILABLE SERVICED LAND
144
A. Introduction B. Existing Industrial Land Policies C. Functions of City Departments Involved with Industrial Land Planning and Development D. Industrial Land Prices E. The Industrial Land Development Process F. Factors Contributing to the Short Supply of Serviced Industrial Land 1. Lack of Trunk Sewers 2. Fragmented Land Ownership 3. Limited Involvement of Private Developers 4. Industrial Land as a Priority for Planning 5. Regional Issues 6. Railway Interswitching Limits G. An "Action" Planning Program for Industrial Land H. City Industrial Land Purchasing Program I. Recommendations for Alleviating the Shortage of Serviced Industrial Land
- III Page APPENDIX 1: APPENDIX 11: APPENDIX 111:
INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES AND PRINCIPLES - CITY OF EDMONTON GENERAL PLAN SUMMARY OF INDUSTRIAL LAND INVENTORY JANUARY, 1973 A NOTE OF EXPLANATION ON 1970 EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES
163 166 173
LIST OF TABLES
Page I. Distribution of Net Taxable Assessment by Land Use Category, City of Edmonton, 1972 and 1973
4
2. Numerical and Percentage Distribution of Labour Force by Industry Sector, Canada, Alberta, Edmonton and Calgary, 1931-1961
13
3. Employment by Sector: Metropolitan Edmonton, 1961-1970
14
4. Employment by Industry: Metropolitan Edmonton, 1961-1970
19
5. Change in Edmployment by Industry: Metropolitan Edmonton, 20 1961-1970 6. Manufacturing Employment: Metropolitan Edmonton, 1961-1970
23
7. Manufacturing Edmployment: Metropolitan Edmonton, Metropolitan Calgary, Alberta and Canada, 1961-1970
24
8. Manufacturing Edmployment: Metropolitan Edmonton as a Percent of Alberta, 1961-1970
26
9. Value Added for Manufacturing Industries: Metropolitan Edmonton, Alberta and Canada, 1961-1970
27
10. Geographic Distribution of Industrial Firms, City of Edmonton, 1972
36
11. Geographic Distribution of Manufacturing Firms, City of Edmonton, 1972
37
12. Employment Densities for Predominant Uses of Industrial Land, City of Edmonton, 1972
38
13. Land Development Trends in Industrial Zones, City of Edmonton, 1962-1971
40
14. Summary of Vacant Industrial Land, City of Edmonton, January, 1973
44
15. Industrial Areas Surrounding Edmonton: Description, January, 1973
51
-vLIST OF TABLES, CONTINUED
Page 16. Industrial Areas Surrounding Edmonton: Services Available, January, 1973
53
17. Economy of Canada: Growth in Output, Employment, Capital Stock and Real Disposable income, 1960, 1970 and 1980
64
18. Economy of Canada: Growth in Productivity and Wages
67
19. Economy of Canada: Output and Employment Changes and Distribution of Employment by Industry Group, 1960, 1970 and 1980
68
20. Projected Prairie Province Employment - Class 1 Employment, 1967 and Employment Growth Prospects, 1971-1981
70
21. Projected Prairie Province Employment - Class 2 Employment, 1967 and Employment Growth Prospects, 1971-1981
71
22. Annual Percentage Change of Output per Manhour in Commercial Goods- Producing and Commercial ServiceProducing Industries, Canada, 1946-1968
94
23. Number of Oil Administrative and Operations Offices, Calgary and Edmonton, 1950-1970
109
24. Projected Employment by Sectors to 1981: Edmonton Sub-Region
132
25. Employment Projections to 1981: Edmonton Sub-Region
133
26. Manufacturing Employment Projections to 1981: Edmonton Sub-Region
134
27. Industrial Land Demand: Edmonton Sub-Region, 1970-1981
140
28. An Estimate of Employment by Industry: Metropolitan Edmonton, 1970
176
LIST OF FIGURES
Page 1.
Edmonton Area Sub-Regional Boundaries, 1973
17
2.
Industrial Districts - City of Edmonton, 1973
31
3.
Developed Industrial Land - Edmonton Area, 1973
32
4.
North-West Industrial Area, 1973
33
5.
South and South-East Industrial Area, 1973
34
6.
Major Industrial Parks and Areas Surrounding Edmonton, 1973
55
Western Canada and the North - Major Transportation Routes, 1973
76
Community Factors Contributing to Final Industrial Site Selection
84
Head Oil Offices in Calgary, Edmonton and the Rest of Canada
108
10.
Major Oil and Gas Pipelines in Alberta, 1972
112
11.
Movements of Oil and Natural Gas Within, To and From Canada, 1971
113
Summary of Employment by Industry, 1961, 1970 and 1981
135
Summary of Manufacturing Employment, 1961, 1970 and 1981
136
Edmonton Area Railway Interswitching Limits, 1973
155
7. 8. 9.
12. 13. 14.
RECOMMENDATIONS AND SUMMARY
Recommendations for General Industrial Planning 1. that the principle of providing flexible industrial areas with a variety of types of industrial land and parcel sizes be a basic guide for planning; 2.
that a minimum of 230 gross acres (180 net acres) per year be serviced and available for development in the City of Edmonton;
3
that the above figure be regarded as a general guide for the future, and modified as needed to maintain an inventory of approximately 100 net acres of available vacant serviced industrial land;
4. that there should be an equitable distribution of vacant serviced land throughout the industrial areas of the City to provide industries that are locating here with a variety of choice; 5. that the Edmonton Regional Planning Commission be urged to give priority to industrial planning comparable to some of the other key issues to be explored in the Regional Growth Alternatives Study. Recommendations for Alleviating the Current Shortage of Serviced Industrial Land 1. that the planning and servicing of industrial land be given top priority by the Civic Administration until the suppiy of serviced industrial land is increased to a satisfactory level; 2. that alternative servicing and land development "action" plans be prepared to provide maximum flexibility in the staging of industrial growth and that the preparation and co-ordination of these "action" plans be the designated responsibility of the Planning Department with other Departments requested to assist in the development of these plans on a top priority basis;
3
that the extension of utility services bypassing potential land for industry be used as a tool to increase the supply of available serviced industrial land;
4•
that the existing industrial land inventory held by the City be increased in order to facilitate replot procedures, assist industrial firms in finding suitable locations and encourage industrial development which benefits the City as a whole.
Observations Respecting Further Work Required In addition to presenting the above recommendations on industrial land the study identified several activities within the Planning Department which need to be continued or initiated. These activities are being listed as information. 1. to undertake systematic discussions with the Manager of the Land Development Program, the Business Development Department, industrial realtors and industrial land developers for the purpose of reviewing the industrial land market and industrial land planning problems. 2.
to examine the feasibility of a "partly-serviced" industrial area within the City limits for use of those industries that do not require fully serviced locations.
3.
to examine the specialized land servicing and transportation requirements of the warehousing industry.
4.
to undertake a special study of employment and land demand trends in the service industrial sector and the implications for commercial and industrial development.
5.
to periodically review and update the 1981 employment projections for the Edmonton Sub-Region.
6.
to undertake, when required, the background research needed to facilitate resolution of the problem of railway interswitching.
Summary In order to effectively plan for future industrial development in the City of Edmonton, it is important to understand the character of the Edmonton economy in the past and the prospects for the future. This research report was undertaken for the
ix purpose of providing this background information;
it is a basic
study from which detailed industrial land planning and programming may proceed.
Included in this research report is an analysis
of past employment and industrial land development trends, a review of forces likely to affect the future, and projections of employment and industrial land demand in the Edmonton Sub-Region to the year 1981. In addition, the current problem of a short supply of serviced industrial land is reviewed and planning solutions for avoiding the problem in the future proposed.
A variety of sources of information were used in this research. Actual manufacturing employment statistics for Metropolitan Edmonton in 1961 and 1970 were available from the Alberta Bureau of Statistics. Estimates for 1961 and 1970 employment for other categories were made by the study team, based upon labour force data and employment information for large firms. Additional information from the Population and Land Use System included the geographic distribution of firms in the City, employee/acre densities, and industrial land consumption trends. A special survey of the availability o serviced industrial land based upon conversations with realtors and developers was also used.
Projections for employment and industrial land in the Edmonton Sub-Region were based upon a review of the above information plus a review of employment projections for Canada as a whole and for the Prairie Provinces. The most important source of information concerning the future industrial development in Edmonton, however, was interviews with approximately sixty Edmonton firms located in industrial areas.
- x -
The major findings of the study are summarized below.
Past and Present Trends 1. The City of Edmonton has been in the past and is today an important supply and service centre for Northern Alberta and environs, and the North. This is illustrated by the importance of the tertiary sector for employment in the City, which accounted for 78% of all employment in 1970. (The tertiary sector includes the employment categories of transportation and warehousing; trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business and community services). 2. The Edmonton area economy is directly linked to the natural resources base of Alberta, including agriculture and oil and gas resources. In manufacturing, this is reflected by the importance of the food and beverage and metal fabricating industries in terms of employment and value added, and by the petroleum and coal products industry in terms of dollars generated in the economy. It is also reflected in the importance of construction employment, and the dominance of small service and retail firms serving oil and gas exploration and production activities. 3. Manufacturing employment declined as a percent of total employment in the 1961-1970 period (accounting for 9.9% of all employment in Metropolitan Edmonton in 1970), but increased in total employment from 16,907 persons in 1961 to 20,258 persons in 1970. Manufacturing activity is extremely important for creating a balanced economy not subject to major fluctuations, for creating employment opportunities (both directly and through demand for other goods and services), for generating dollars in the economy, and for contributing to the tax base. 4. The major users of land zoned for industrial use are firms in manufacturing, construction, warehousing and transportation, trade and service. In 1972, 17.8% of total industrial land used by these categories was trade and service uses, reflecting again the importance of the tertiary sector.
5. Between 1962 and 1970, an average of 143 acres of land/year in industrial zones were built upon in the City of Edmonton. There were large fluctuations in land development each year, however, with a net high industrial land development figure of 231 acres recorded in 1963 and a low figure of 82 net acres recorded in 1971. A special land use survey in 1972 indicated that 163 acres of industrial land were removed from the vacant supply available at that time. This figure is not directly comparable to the 1962-1971 data, but illustrates the recent strong demand for industrial land in the City. 6. As of October 1972, 385 acres of industrial land in Edmonton were vacant and fully-serviced. However, according to a land availability survey, as of January 1973, only 40.6 acres of fully-serviced industrial land were actually available to industries for development. 7.
In the past several years, industrial land development activity beyond the City limits has increased, largely as a result of the increased demand for industrial land in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area and the short supply of serviced industrial land available in the City.
Projected Future Trends 1. Major forces affecting future employment and industrial land demand in the 1970-1981 period are expected to include the following: a. Northern Development - Although the type of Northern development that will occur in the future is uncertain, there are likely to be a variety of spinoffs for Edmonton businesses. Any growth of population and expansion of natural resources exploration activity in the North will increase the demand for certain goods and services in Edmonton. The completion of the MacKenzie Valley Highway and to some extent a MacKenzie Valley pipeline will increase the pace of Northern development.
During the time of construction, a gas pipeline could create an additional demand for construction, metal fabricating, transportation equipment, machinery, and warehousing and transportation services. Because a pipeline is probably a onetime project, however, it is unlikely that many firms would locate in Edmonton simply to provide materials or service that pipeline. Although Edmonton is in an excellent geographical location for serving the North, Vancouver and to some extent other Canadian cities are competitive. b. Athabasca Tar Sands - The development of the Athabasca tar sands near Fort McMurray in northeastern Alberta is expected to have a dramatic impact on employment and industrial development in Edmonton in the next decade. Edmonton will likely be the major supplier of construction materials, replacement parts, and perishable goods for the tar sands, and a major distribution centre for other materials. The population growth in the Fort McMurray area will increase the demand for consumer goods and services as well. in manufacturing, the development of the tar sands will stimulate the demand for metal fabricating, machinery, and primary metals. Because special alloy steels are needed to withstand the abrasions of the tar sands, it is possible that specialized foundries may be developed in the Edmonton area. c. Western Canadian Markets - The continued growth of Western Canadian markets is expected to be an important factor in the future for the Edmonton Area economy. There are strong indications that the population of Western Canada has reached a point where it is profitable for many different types of firms to establish either manufacturing operations specifically to serve Western markets, or major warehousing operations. The opening of the Yellowhead Route in 1970, connecting Edmonton with Winnipeg to the East and the Pacific Coast to the West, is a major factor making Edmonton an excellent location for serving Western Canadian markets. Nevertheless, the expansion of manufacturing in Western Canada will most likely be shared among all of the major urban centres.
d. Railroad Freight Rates - The cost of transporting goods from Western Canada to Eastern markets, and of transporting raw materials from the East to Western Canada are factors restricting the industrial development in Edmonton. For some iron and steel products and food products from the East, for example, freight rates to Alberta are based on the rate to Vancouver plus a backhaul rate, regardless of the actual route followed by the train. The inequities of freight rates in the Prairie Provinces have long been recognized by the Province of Alberta as a severe problem, and it is hoped that the Conference on Western Canadian Economic Opportunities, held in July 1973, may result in some changes. The increased use of unit trains would reduce transportation costs without government action, although it is not known to what extent their use will be feasible in the future for Edmonton firms. e. Air Transportation Routes and Connections Economic development in Edmonton is restrained to some extent by the existing system of air transportation routes and connections. One problem is the lack of direct air routes to the United States. A second problem is the current division of functions between the Industrial Airport and the International Airport. Because persons arriving in the Industrial Airport from the North often travel to Calgary for connecting flights to other major cities (as opposed to utilizing Edmonton's International Airport), major airlines are able to serve Edmonton as well as Calgary from a Calgary location. This results in some loss of business to Edmonton firms. f. Federal and Provincial Policies - The governmental policies that are expected to have an influence on economic development in Edmonton include the proposed Provincial gas price rebate system (which is expected to make Alberta more attractive to energyintensive industries or industries dependent upon
natural gas as a raw material, such as some chemical firms), and Federal and Provincial regulations related to exploration and extraction of natural resources, especially oil, gas and coal. The Province of Alberta is also encouraging the decentralization of industry away from urban centres, although the impact on Edmonton has been relatively small to date. Future Federal and Provincial policies are a factor contributing to the uncertainty of the future. g•
Automation and New Technology - Although the precise impact of new technology in the future is uncertain, it is expected to continue to affect the distribution of jobs in the economy. Specifically it is expected to continue to increase production in the secondary sector at a greater rate than the tertiary sector, in effect, redistributing jobs. Contrary to common opinion, technological innovations usually create jobs, rather than reducing the total number of jobs.
In spite of the problems with freight rates and transportation routes, and the uncertainty of the future, it is expected that employment growth and demand for industrial land will be strong in the Edmonton Sub-Region during the 1970-1981 period. While the Edmonton economy will continue to be dependent upon the natural resources base, the trend toward growth of diversified manufacturing (and Western Canadian markets) will be a stabilizing force. 2.
It is projected that employment in the Edmonton SubRegion will total 299,279 persons in 1981, a 3.9% average annual increase from the 1970 estimated Edmonton Metropolitan Area employment of 205,632. The largest rate of growth (4.3% average annual increase) is projected for the employment category of transportation, warehousing, communications and other utilities. The service employment category is expected to account for the largest percent of total employment (43.6% of total employment) in 1981.
3.
It is projected that manufacturing employment will increase from a total of 20,258 persons in 1970 in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area to 23,644 persons in 1981 in the
Edmonton Sub-Region. This is equivalent to a 1.4% average annual percentage increase. Whereas manufacturing employment accounted for 9.8% of total employment in 1970, it is projected that manufacturing will account for 7.9% of total employment in 1981. Growth in percent of total manufacturing employment is expected for metal fabricating, primary metals, machinery, and furniture and fixtures. The largest numerical increase is expected to be in metal fabricating, increasing from 2,518 in 1970 to 3,452 in 1981. Food and beverage employment is projected to account for the largest percent of total manufacturing (25%) although only a small increase of 429 persons is expected in that industry. 4.
Based upon the projected employment and employee/acre density figures, a total industrial land demand of 1,932 net acres (2,577 gross acres) is projected for the 1970-1981 period in the Edmonton Sub-Region, This figure applies primarily to the demand for serviced industrial land and does not reflect the need for large parcels of unserviced land. This is equivalent to a land demand of 180.2 acres (234.3 gross acres) per year during this period. Based on a consumption rate of 234 gross acres per year, there is enough vacant industrial land within the City of Edmonton boundaries for approximately 22 years in the future. Because of the current short supply of serviced industrial land and the pent-up demand, it is estimated that the short-term land demand for 1974-1975 will be approximately 200 net acres per year.
5.
It is estimated that 200 net acres of serviced industrial land with a variety of parcel sizes should be continually available as an inventory to provide a reasonable choice to industries interested in an Edmonton location.
6.
In order to plan effectively for the required serviced industrial land, it is suggested that staging plans for the land development and servicing of industrial areas, called "action" plans, be undertaken for certain industrial areas.
The Current Shortage of Industrial Land
By January of 1973 the shortage of serviced industrial land had become acute. A Planning Department survey showed that approximately 40.6 acres of serviced industrial land were available for immediate development. A variety of factors have combined to create the current shortage of serviced industrial land in Edmonton. These problems include the physical provision of services (especially storm and sanitary sewer facilities), interswitching problems, fragmented ownership of land, past priorities in the City Planning Department and regional issues. All of these problems are interlinked with each other; it is impossible to determine which of these factors is in fact the "major" problem. Each of the problems is summarized below: 1. Lack of Trunk Sewers - This factor is most apparent in the Northwest Industrial Area where there is currently no trunk sanitary or storm sewer available north of 114 Avenue or west of 170 Street. Approximately 1,900 acres of industrial land are affected by these sewer lines. Although construction of the facilities is proceeding as rapidly as existing equipment will allow, completion is not anticipated before 1974-1975. In the South and Southeast Industrial Areas, trunk facilities are available although distribution lines have not been constructed. 2. Fragmented Land Ownership - The present pattern of land ownership contributes to the short supply of serviced industrial land in Edmonton. In most areas land is fragmented with a variety of persons owning various parcels. As a result, lengthy replot procedures are often necessary before a plan of subdivision is agreed upon. This problem has been a general impediment to planning in Edmonton for all types of land uses. For industrial areas, it has been particularly severe in the North Bonaventure, Papaschase and Coronet replot areas.
3. Limited Involvement of Private Developers - In the past, very few developers have actually worked with industrial land in Edmonton on any major scale. As a result, there has not been a lobby of developers encouraging City attention to the problem of industrial land services. 4.
Industrial Land as a Priority for Planning - Until recently, planning of industrial land has not been a priority in the City Planning Department. As a result the outline plans from which roadways and utility corridors could be planned have been set aside in favour of other projects.
5
Regional Issues - The lack of serviced industrial land is a regional problem that extends beyond the boundaries of the City. However, due to the unresolved issue of annexation, it is a temporary policy of City Council not to extend services beyond City boundaries. As a result of this policy, some land that is available for development does not have the complete services that the industries and land owners may wish. The problem is complicated by the lack of regional planning for industrial land development.
6.
Railway Interswitching Limits - Interswitching service provides for the transfer of goods from a rail track operated by one railway to a track operated by another. This is an important service for industries relying heavily on rail transport, since it reduces the time and cost of transporting goods. This is a "special" land service that is presently affecting industrial land.
An "Action" Planning Program for Industrial Land
Action has already been taken on some of the factors contributing to the shortage of serviced industrial land. The vital trunk sewer to the Northwest Industrial Area is under construction, background work on the railway interswitching problem is underway, and the completion of industrial outline plans is a priority for 1973 in the City Planning Department. The problems that result from fragmented landownership are basic to the Edmonton land market and cannot be solved by special policies and programs, although programs may be tailored to minimize their effort.
With a strong demand for industrial land projected during the 1970's, more flexible and dynamic industrial land planning must be undertaken specifically to avoid the recurrence of the present problem. Due to the current short supply this is especially important for the next few years. If "action" planning programs are undertaken to plan the staging of services and industrial land development in advance of need, problems can be minimized in the future. This is especially important for minimizing the effect of the fragmented landownership patterns.
The type of "action" planning recommended is complementary to the general industrial land planning that is currently undertaken by the City Planning Department. Utilizing information concerning landownership patterns and the views of industrial land owners regarding land servicing and development, alternative staging plans would be developed for review. In this way the City could become an advocate for industrial land, servicing land in advance of need, in appropriate locations rather than merely responding to pressure from landowners. If difficulties with individual landowners arise, alternative staging patterns would have already been identified.
The steps in developing an "action" planning program for industrial land development might include the following activities: 1. Review of information on land ownership patterns and views •of landowners toward servicing; 2.
Identification of land problems and existing servicing limitations;
3.
Identification of an industrial land servicing goal for the particular industrial area in question, based upon land demand projections and the servicing goal established for the City as a whole;
L.
Identification of alternative staging plans for servicing and development;
5. Evaluation of alternative strategies, with assistance of a policy committee or the Municipal Planning Commission; 6. Preparation of a network diagram (and responsibilities of each department) for reaching the goal; 7. Presentation of a proposed "action" plan to Commission Board and City Council for approval.
Through this planning process, the industrial areas most suitable and ready for industrial land servicing and development would be identified, hence maximizing the investment of the City in industrial land services and increasing the supply of available industrial land.
An important tool in developing action plans is flexibility to extend service beyond the limits of existing development. Due to the investment required, this has been considered only in special instances in the past. It should be noted, however, that whenever the City installs major trunk sewer facilities it makes a heavy investment in land services since the expense is not usually recovered until the land is developed. The appropriate extension of land services beyond existing development may be a catalyst for industrial land development and in fact help recover some of the investment in the trunk sewer facilities.
The length of time needed to develop an action strategy and program for each industrial area will vary with the problems present and the additional information needed. In some outline plan areas, it may be necessary to develop several programs. Because of the pressing nature of the land problem, however, research should proceed as rapidly as possible, with six months as a maximum time period for any industrial area. It is expected that this advance planning
- XX
for the staging of servicing and industrial development will be especially useful for budgeting major public improvements.
It is important that the planning work and identification of alternatives remain the responsibility of the City Planning Department. In developing alternatives, however, the full co-operation and assistance from all departments involved, including the Industrial Land Program, Business Development, Realty Development Office, Water and Sanitation, and Property and Building Management will be required. This proposal would require the full support of the affected Departments to provide information on a top priority basis, at least until an ample supply of serviced industrial land is available.
When problems, opportunities and feasible alternatives have been identified (perhaps with preliminary evaluations completed), the information would be presented to the Municipal Planning Commission for review and evaluation. The proposed network diagram for implementing the "action" plan for servicing would also be reviewed. The network diagram is extremely important as a management tool for co-ordinating and guiding the efforts of each department involved toward a common objective. The success of the action plans will depend upon the co-operation of all departments involved as well as the ingenuity of staff members. in developing feasible alternatives.
In brief, there are positive actions which the City of Edmonton may undertake to alleviate the current shortage of serviced industrial land. It is imperative, however, that strong efforts be undertaken
immediately. If a dynamic process of decision making and implementation is not carried out, the City of Edmonton may continue to face a shortage of serviced industrial land. Future industrial development in Edmonton can be strong if the City of Edmonton makes it possible through an adequate supply of serviced industrial land.
DEFINITIONS
Terms used in this report which may not be familiar to the casual reader are briefly defined below: Industry: A specific category of employment, such as primary trade, manufacturing, warehousing and transportation services or a specific category of manufacturing employment such as food and beverage, clothing, printing and publishing, etc. All employment is classified in a certain industry. Firm: An individual office, plant, warehouse, or other business. Major Users of Industrial Land: Manufacturing, warehousing, construction, some trade, and some service industries. Value Added: The value of goods produced less the cost of materials, fuel and electricity. Edmonton: Land within the corporate limits of the City of Edmonton. Edmonton Area: Edmonton and immediate environs, the total size of which is less than the Edmonton Metropolitan Area. Edmonton Metropolitan Area: Census Metropolitan Area boundary for 1961. Edmonton Sub-Region: Edmonton and environs as outlined in Figure 1. Edmonton Trade Area: That area of Alberta north of Red Deer. * * * * * * Primary Sector: Includes employment that is directly related to natural resources or land. This sector includes the industries of agriculture, forestry, fishing and trapping, mines and quarries and oil wells. Secondary Sector: Includes employment connected with the industries of manufacturing and construction. The secondary sector utilizes natural resources and other manufactured goods to make goods of a higher value.
Tertiary Sector: Includes those industries which provide services to businesses and residents. It includes the specific categories of transportation, warehousing, communications, and other utilities; trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and service employment. The tertiary sector must be carefully distinguished from the service industry which includes community, business, and personal services, public administration, and defense. As discussed in this report, total employment in the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors has been calculated by adding together the employment in the relevant industrial categories and adding an equivalent proportion of employment from the "other unclassified" category.
Fully-serviced land: Land where water, sanitary and storm sewer, power, telephone, pavement, curb, and gutter services are available. Partly-serviced land: Land where one or more of the above services are missing. Community services: Police, fire, garbage collection, road maintenance, schools and other general services provided to protect and enhance the community as a whole. These are to be distinguished from land services listed above.
Zoning Categories - City of Edmonton (as specified in the City of Edmonton Zoning By-law and Land Use Classification Guide.) M-1 Industrial District: A "high-amenity" industrial zone intended to promote attractive industrial areas with landscaping and neat buildings. Screening of storage and trucking yards is required. To be permitted, the industrial use must not "cause or permit any external objectionable or dangerous condition apparent beyond any building housing processes wherein such effects may be produced."
M-2 Industrial District: A flexible industrial zone intended to accommodate a variety of industries. To be permitted the industrial use must not "cause nor permit any external objectionable or dangerous condition apparent beyond the boundary of a site." M-3 Industrial District: This zone is intended to accommodate industries that may be objectionable to surrounding land uses in terms of appearance, odour, noise, etc. To be permitted, the industrial use must not "cause nor permit any external objectionable or dangerous condition apparent beyond the boundary of the M-3 Industrial District wherein the site is located." (The M-1, M-2 and M-3 industrial zones permit warehousing and transportation, manufacturing, service and repair, and commercial businesses. The architectural design of all buildings is reviewed by the Planning Department on an individual basis.) C-M Wholesale Distribution District: The purpose of this district is to accommodate wholesale, storage, and distribution activities in the Downtown Area. A variety of warehousing, wholesale service, and retail establishments are permitted. There is no architectural review of proposed buildings, as long as height, site coverage, parking, and other regulations are met. AG-MRI Industrial Reserve District: The purpose of this district is to reserve land for future industrial development. Farms, natural resource development, and recreational uses are permitted. Industrial uses are also permitted when they are in conformity with existing replotting or subdivision plans, or are unlikely to affect future plans. Design, siting, site coverage, architectural appearance, etc. are reviewed by the Planning Department on an individual basis.
Zoning Categories - Edmonton Region, Metropolitan Part (as specified in the Edmonton Regional Planning Commission Preliminary Regional Plan, Metropolitan Part) GI - General Industrial Zone: The purpose of this zone is to provide suitable land for manufacturing and warehousing in Metropolitan Edmonton for a minimum period of fifteen years at
estimated rates of land occupancy. Industrial uses that may pollute air or water should be referred by the municipality to the Provincial Department of the Environment. Compatible commercial, recreational or municipal uses are also permitted in this zone. AGIR - Agricultural - General Industrial Reserve Zone: The purpose of this zone is to reserve agricultural lands on the periphery of urban development for future industrial uses and to Agriprevent premature subdivision and land development. cultural, recreational and public utility uses that do not prejudice future industrial use are permitted. This zone, together with the General Industrial Zone, is intended to provide sufficient land for industrial development far beyond fifteen years. The preparation of an outline plan is a prerequisite to amending the Preliminary Regional Plan from Agricultural - General Industrial Reserve to General Industrial Zone.
CHAPTER 1
AN OVERVIEW OF THE EDMONTON ECONOMY
A.
Introduction
The City of Edmonton in 1973 is a thriving and bustling community.
It is an important service and distribution
centre for the Edmonton Region, Northern Alberta and environs, and the far North, and increasingly the centre for warehousing, distribution and manufacturing industries serving markets throughout Western Canada. A special characteristic of the Edmonton economy is economic activity related to agricultural products, oil and gas. These natural resources have been the stimulus for a good portion of Edmonton's population growth in the past twenty years, both directly and indirectly.
The Edmonton economy in the 1970's is expected to experience a strong rate of growth. Natural resource development in the far North and the Athabasca tar sands will create an additional demand for goods and services from Edmonton, stimulating further population growth. Diversified manufacturing firms serving markets in the Prairie Provinces and Western Canada are expected to continue to be attracted to Edmonton. Economic prosperity and the expanding labour force will also continue to place pressures on land within the City.
If the City wishes
to accommodate the industries trying to locate here, effective planning for industrial development is a necessity.
The purpose of this report is to provide an information base from which more detailed planning for industrial development may proceed. Background information on employment and land development trends in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area are summarized for the 1961 to 1970 period. Based upon a review of the past trends, research reports and the views of industrial executives concerning
- 2 the future, employment and land demand projections have been made to 1981. The current problem in Edmonton of a short supply of serviced industrial land is reviewed and suggestions are made for possible actions and policies to alleviate the problem.
It
is hoped that this report and the suggestions will be a useful source for planners, civic officials and citizens.
B.
Why Industry?
In communities across Canada, the traditional assumption that all growth is good for the community is being challenged and reexamined. Since industrial growth and development provides a major stimulus for population growth, the issue is relevant to this report.
The question of whether further growth in the City of Edmonton is desirable, however, cannot be answered through research studies alone.
It is a political question, requiring a full discussion of
implications with participation from different interests in the community. Although this report does not answer the question of the desirability of future growth, it does provide information concerning the direction in which the City of Edmonton is heading that may be useful for the broader discussion.
In addition to discussing the relationship between industrial development and population growth, this report raises the question of 'why should any community want industry'. The major reasons can be summarized as follows:
1.
Socio-economic unity: A community is made up of many different persons, land uses and activities. Industrial production and employment are an important part of the community's activities since they are often the reason for the community's original growth and continuing vitality and prosperity.
3
If industrial uses are located within the boundaries of the City, they help to make the City a total community where people can live and work without travelling large distances.
2.
Source of employment and income: Another important reason for a community to favour industry is the potential employment and income benefits to citizens. This is especially important if unemployment problems are significant or if the industry offers a better working environment or income for individual persons.
3
Tax benefits: The tax revenue generated by industrial land uses is the most obvious advantage of having industrial development in the City. For the most part, industrial firms do not require extensive community services (such as police and fire protection), yet they provide property tax revenue to help offset the cost of community services in residential and commercial areas. As shown on Table 1, the direct contribution of industrial land uses to the total net taxable assessment of the City of Edmonton in 1973 was approximately $139 million or 9% of the total. Because many commercial businesses locate in a community as a direct result of industrial development, a portion of the net taxable assessment for commercial land (18% of the total in 1973) is linked closely with industrial land development.
Industrial land development, as a whole, does benefit the community in which it is located.
Table 1 Distribution of Net Taxable Assessment by Land Use Catagory City of Edmonton, 1972 & 1973 LAND 1972 Net Taxable Assessment
1973 Net Taxable Assessment % Total
Total
Land Use Residential Commercial Industrial Other TOTAL
$167,381,000 52,060,840 21,127,900 20,358,770
64% 0 20/
$260,928,510
8% 8%
$578,943,270 154,843,760 65,485,730 107,120,520
64% 17% 7% 12%
1002
$906,393,280
100%
IMPROVEMENTS 1972 Net Taxable Assessments
% Total
$463,933,020 115,010,520 71,240,880 6,533,310
71% 17% 11% 1%
$464,985,160 123,446,110 73,565,170 3,272,570
700/ 19% 11%
$656,717,730
1000
$665,269,010
1000/
1973 Net Taxable Assessment % Total
Land Use Residential Commercial Industrial Other TOTAL
TOTAL LAND & IMPROVEMENTS 1972 Net Taxable Assessment
% Total
$631,314,020 167,071,360 92,368,780 26,892,080
69% 18% 10% 3%
$1,043,928,430 278,289,870 139,050,900 110,363,090
66% 18% 9% 7%
$917,646,240
0 100/
$1,571,662,290
100%
1973 Net Taxable % Total Assessment
Land Use Residential Commercial Industrial Other TOTAL
SOURCE: Special Reports, 1972 and 1973 City Assessor and Tax Collector's Office
Due to the size of the population in Western Canada many firms will build only one plant to serve all of the Western Region.
It is
important, therefore, that Edmonton strive to attract new industry if it wishes to become and remain a major centre for manufacturing and distribution. The particular types of industry that are attracted to a community, however, affect the overall stability and prosperity of the area. The Edmonton General Plan identifies useful guidelines for industrial development that will strengthen the economy of Edmonton.
The City should particularly encourage those industries that:
1.
broaden and diversity the economic base.
2.
utilize the local market, thereby reducing imports to the area.
3.
fortify the City against severe cyclical and seasonal fluctuations.
4.
have a high degree of employment stability.
5.
use or further process locally available raw or semiprocessed materials.
6.
provide employment opportunities for those people presently unable to find employment, especially the handicapped and older segment of the labour force.
7.
are functionally interdependent and financially independent.(1)
In addition to the above guidelines, it is suggested that the City encourage only those industries which do not have adverse effects on the natural environment. The City has a clear obligation to protect the quality of life that already exists in Edmonton; it is not necessary to blindly encourage all types of industrial development.
(1)
City of Edmonton General Plan, Chapter VII, Industrial Development P.
7.7.
Land planning to guide industrial development to the most suitable locations in Edmonton and to buffer unattractive industrial development are also important concerns. Guidelines for the location of industry are specified in the Industrial Development Chapter of the General Plan (see Appendix 1).
It is important that sound planning
be the basis for future industrial development in the City.
C.
Historical Development of the Edmonton Economy
From the early days of Fort Edmonton until the present, Edmonton has been a centre for the exchange and distribution of goods and services.
In the early decades of the 1800's, Indians camped in the
North Saskatchewan River Valley while they exchanged furs for goods.(2) Edmonton was also a supply centre for the fur traders and trappers who used the Yellowhead Pass through the mountains to reach what is now British Columbia. For half a century the Carlton Trail winding from Fort Garry (now Winnipeg) to Edmonton, and the Yellowhead Trail from Edmonton to the Yellowhead Pass were routes followed by many explorers, settlers, traders and adventurers who set their sights for the West. (3) Today this route is followed by the Canadian National Railway and used by many trucking firms.
Another initial advantage Edmonton had was the rich natural resource base including minerals and agricultural land, from which the early settlers could draw.
In the 1880's flour and saw mills
developed to serve a growing population. Meatpacking was also an early industry related to natural resources. In the early years of the 1900's bricks were made from local clay deposits and coal mines were operated in the Edmonton area. Other industries developing at this time included a tannery, brewery, butter factory and iron foundry. (Lt)
(2) City of Edmonton, Draft General Plan for the City of Edmonton, Chapter VII, Industrial Development, p. 3. (3) Pierre Burton, The Great Railway, McClelland and Stewart Ltd., Toronto, 1972, pp. 22-23. (4) Historical Research by the Strathcona Historical Group.
The 1897-1898 Kloodike Gold Rush in the Yukon created a period of prosperity for Edmonton businesses. The prime reason for the boom in Edmonton, as well as early population growth, however, was the completion of the railway from Calgary to the Town of Strathcona in 1891.(5) This railroad was constructed by the Calgary and Edmonton Railway Company and was later acquired by the Canadian Pacific Railway.
In 1901 a bridge was constructed across the North
Saskatchewan River and the railway extended to what is now the north side of Edmonton.(6) Between 1900 and 1914 the City of Edmonton population grew from 3,000 to 72,000 largely due to the inflow of immigrants made possible by the railway. Other important factors were the designation of Edmonton as the Provincial Capital in 1905 and the establishment of the University of Alberta in Strathcona in 1907.
The function of the Edmonton area as a supply and distribution point is illustrated by a promotional pamphlet published by the Strathcona Plaindealer in 1903 entitled Strathcona, the Railway Town and Manufacturing Centre of Northern Alberta: ...Here are gathered for shipment all the grain, cattle, hogs, coal and manufactured products of the far-famed Edmonton and Strathcona districts. Here are located most of the mills, packing houses, and other industrial enterprises of the great region. From Strathcona are shipped thousands of live and dressed cattle, sheep and hogs to British Columbia and the Yukon, also a large proportion of the coal supplies of Calgary and the numerous towns along the C. & E. Line. Here are the government immigration buildings, the government creamery and customs. (7)
In 1912, Edmonton and Strathcona amalgamated into a single municipality. (6) The Edmonton, Yukon and Pacific Railway (a section of the Canadian Northern Railway) was connected to the C. and E. Railway in Strathcona and extended across the Low Level Bridge to Edmonton. (7) Historical Research by the Strathcona Historical Group.
(.5)
-8There is no doubt that Edmonton and Strathcona residents were proud of their communities and wanted to promote further industrial development.
Even in these early years Edmonton officials were concerned about providing land for industrial development.
in 1910 an
Industrial Commission was appointed for the purpose of encouraging manufacturing firms to locate in the City. As a result of a Commission recommendation, 245 acres of industrial land were purchased by the City for industrial development.(8)
In addition
to offering this land at low prices to manufacturing industries the City offered tax incentives and free utility services.
In 1913
the Provincial Government passed legislation prohibiting such incentives although by then Edmonton's economy was well established.
The importance of Edmonton as a service centre and distribution point continued to grow as Northern development occurred. Edmonton was the staging point for the movement of supplies to the Norman Wells oilfield in the Northwest Territories in 1920. The City served a similar function when the governments of Canada and the United States cooperated to build a 600 mile pipeline from Normal Wells to Whitehorse, Yukon and when the Alaska Highway was constructed.
The greatest single factor stimulating Edmonton's economic development and subsequent population growth was the discoveries of oil at the Town of Leduc, just south of Edmonton in 1947 and at Redwater and Woodbend in 1948. These important oil discoveries
(8) Michael A. Crowston, "The Growth of the Metal Industry in Edmonton", Unpublished M.A. Thesis, Department of Geography, University of Alberta, 1971, p. 12. This thesis cites the research of E. H. Dale, "The Role of Successive Town and City Councils in the Evolution of Edmonton, Alberta, 1892 to 1966", Unpublished Ph. D. Dissertation, Department of Geography, University of Alberta, 1969.
9 transformed Edmonton into the major oil service and distribution centre that it is today. Many oil service firms that had located in Calgary after the Turner Valley oil discoveries in Southern Alberta in 1914 moved their operations north to Edmonton.
In 1948
Imperial Oil opened the first oil refinery in Edmonton. The British American Oil Company (now Gulf Oil) and the McColl-Frontenac Company followed in 1951. The head administrative offices of the major oil companies located in Calgary did not move to Edmonton, perhaps due to the lack of office space and an unenthusiastic welcome from some Edmonton residents.(9)
Edmonton today, as it was in the early days of Fort Edmonton, is a major service and distribution centre for goods and services. The City is also an important service centre for oil exploration operations ranging as far as the Arctic Islands and the North Sea and the oil refining centre of the Prairie Provinces. Due to its accessibility to major centres in Western Canada the industrial base of Edmonton has grown and diversified with the growing population of Western Canada in recent years. Reflecting the dramatic economic development, the population of Metropolitan Edmonton experienced an average annual increase of 4.2% in the 1961-1971 period, increasing from 337,568 in 1961 to 495,702 in 1971.
D.
Overview of the Edmonton Economy
Both in the past and at the present time, employment and labour force distribution in Edmonton has been dominated by the tertiary sector.(10) For the City of Edmonton, labour force in the tertiary
(9) G. H. Zieber, "Inter- and intra-City Location Patterns of Oil Offices for Calgary and Edmonton 1960-1970", Unpublished Ph. D. Dissertation, Department of Geography, University of Alberta, 1971, pp. 51-65. See also G. H. Zieber, "Why the Oilmen are ThereH, Edmonton Journal, February 23, 1973. (10) The teritary sector is characterized by a variety of services including transportation, warehousing, communications and other utilities; retail and wholesale trade; finance, insurance and real estate; business and personal services, etc.
- 10 sector accounted for 73.7% of the labour force in 1931 and 74.8% of the labour force in 1961 (see Table 2). (11) More recent trends are apparent from employment statistics for the Edmonton Metropolitan Area; tertiary employment in 1961 accounted for 73.3% of all employment and rose to 78.0% of all employment in 1970 (see Table 3). The early predominance of the tertiary sector reflects Edmonton's function as a supply and distribution centre. Today the predominance of the tertiary sector also reflects the nation-wide trend toward the expansion of services to meet the consumer demands of a population with rising incomes. As described later in this report, increasing productivity in manufacturing industries is a major force contributing to this employment shift.
Secondary employment (including manufacturing and construction) on the other hand, accounted for only 19.7% of the Edmonton labour force in 1931 and 22.3% of the labour force in 1961. For the Edmonton Metropolitan Area, secondary employment in 1961 accounted for 23.3 of the total employment but declined to 18.9% of total estimated employment in 1970. Although secondary employment is declining as a percent of total employment, it remains important in several respects. First, secondary industry generates a demand for oil, gas, agricultural products and many manufactured goods. Secondly, and most important, secondary industry acts as a stabilizing --force—against economic fluctuations if a diversity of firms are
present. Although a great deal of secondary industry in Edmonton is related to the natural resource base, there is a trend toward
(11) Labour force statistics include both employed and unemployed persons. Employment statistics, on the other hand, reflect only those persons actually employed. information used in this report includes labour force statistics for the City of Edmonton from 1931 to 1961 by sector, manufacturing employment by detailed category for the Edmonton Metropolitan Area for 1961 and 1970, and employment estimates by major industrial category for the Edmonton Metropolitan Area for 1961 and 1970. The Census Metropolitan Area boundaries for 1961 are used for 1961 and 1970 employment figures.
diversification in manufacturing. Despite a projected continuing decline in employment for this sector, secondary industry remains extremely important for a balanced economy.
The primary sector in Edmonton, including the oil and gas exploration and extracting industries, has always been small in terms of labour force and employment. In 1931 the primary sector accounted for 6.6% of the labour force; in 1961 the primary sector accounted for 2.9% of the City's labour force. The 1970 employment estimates are based upon a Dominion Bureau of Statistics survey of large firm employment in Metropolitan Edmonton. Large firm data was not available for the employment categories of primary and other unclassified employment, therefore, these estimates should be used with caution. It is estimated that the primary sector of employment in 1970 was 3.1% of total employment. This results in an actual employment increase in the category, but a reduction in terms of percent total employment from 1961. The absolute increase in primary employment is reasonable in terms of increased oil and gas exploration in Alberta and the North and mining of the tar sands.
Although there is a recent trend toward a more diversified manufacturing base in Edmonton, the Edmonton economy is still dominated by natural resources and related manufacturing and services.
As a result of this shift it is difficult to estimate
precisely the amount of non-primary employment connected to the natural resources but discussions with individual firms indicated strong linkages. The oil and gas exploration and extraction activities create a demand for a variety of oil-related services, construction and metal fabrication. Agricultural activity also creates a demand for related services. The manufacturing industries of meat packing and petroleum products use these natural resources directly. The by-products of oil refining as well as the available supplies of natural gas, in turn, are attractive to the chemical industry. Hence many different types of economic activities are interlinked with each other.
- 12 -
Susceptibility to outside factors, especially fluctuations in the national and international economies, is the major problem created by this dependence on natural resources. Although the proved remaining recoverable reserves for conventional crude oil are only equivalent to a 17 year supply at 1972 production rates, and the proved remaining recoverable reserves of natural gas are equivalent to a 25 year supply at 1972 production rates, it is not expected that the depletion of these natural resources will have a strong negative impact on the Edmonton economy.(12) Mining of the Athabasca tar sands and oil and gas exploration activities in the far North are likely to provide continued support for oil and gas related service and manufacturing firms. However, in the next twenty year period it will be necessary for Edmonton firms serving the gas and oil industry to broaden their markets to adjust to these and other new developments.
It is expected that many firms will be able
to make a reasonable adjustment to these changes over time. Future economic development is discussed in detail in the following chapters.
(12) Energy Resources Conservation Board statistics as of May, 1973.
Table 2 Numerical and Percentage Distribution of Labour Force by Industry Sector Canada, Alberta, Edmonton & Calgary 1931 - 1961
Primary
Total
Tertiary
Secondary
1931 Canada Alberta Edmonton Calgary
1,297,851 159,275* 2,095 1,815
33.1 55.7 6.6 5.0
887,572 38,427 6,272 8,962
22.6 13.4 19.7 24.6
1,741,797 88,346 23,421 25,628
44.3 30.9 73.7 70.4
3,927,230 286,015 31,788 36,405
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1,319,808 155,203 1,626 1,234
31.5 53.9 4.6 3.8
1,189,736 27,727 8,658 8,390
28.3 9.7 24.6 25.9
1,688,417 104,901 24,958 22,740
40.2 36.4 70.8 70.3
4,195,951 287,831 35,242 32,363
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1,090,489 133,324 2,688 2,676
20.6 37.6 4.0 4.7
1,711,558 52,656 18,134 14,928
32.4 15.0 26.8 26.5
2,484,106 167,517 46,889 38,776
47.0 47.4 69.2 68.8
5,286,153 353,497 67,711 56,380
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
907,331 124,546 3,272 7,604
14.0 25.4 2.9 7.7
1,835,958 79,577 25,140 20,622
28.4 16.3 22.3 20.7
3,728,561 285,388 84,369 71,123
57.6 58.3 74.8 71.6
6,471,850 489,511 112,781 99,349
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
1941 Canada Alberta Edmonton Calgary 1951 Canada Alberta Edmonton Calgary 1961 Canada Alberta Edmonton Calgary
Figures related to mining are interpolated. SOURCE: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Alberta Bureau of Statistics Table prepared by Red Deer Regional Planning Commission
- 14 -
Table 3
Employment by Sector - Metropolitan Edmonton* 1961 - 1970
Sector
I
Primary
1961 Estimated Employment
% Total
1970 Estimated Employment
% Total
4,304
3.4%
6,378
3.1%
Secondary
29,670
23.3%
38,804
18.9%
Tertiary
93,308
73.3%
160,450
78.0%
TOTAL
127,285
100.0%
205,632
100.0%
* 1961 Census Metropolitan Area boundaries are used.
(1) Employment totals for each sector were obtained by adding together the appropriate employment categories (see definitions below) and adding a percent of the unclassified employment category. Unclassified employment was allocated according to employment distribution when that category is excluded. Definitions: Primary
Agriculture, fishing and trapping, mines, quarries and oil wells.
Secondary
Manufacturing and construction.
Tertiary
Transportation, warehousing, communications and other utilities; trade; finance, insurance and real estate; community, business and personal services, public administration and defense.
CHAPTER II
EMPLOYMENT AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS: 1961-1972
A.
Introduction
Before attempting to project future employment and industrial land development trends, it is important to understand past trends. Ideally, a variety of economic indicators should be reviewed and compared with each other. In this report employment trends for 1961-1970 are identified based on actual employment statistics for manufacturing categories and estimates of employment for other categories. In addition, value added in manufacturing is reviewed. Other important indicators are industrial land consumption trends and land availability figures.
Industrial areas in Edmonton and
surrounding areas as well as the industrial land planning process in Edmonton are presented as background information.
Due to limitations in data, comparison of different economic indicators with each other (in the form of cross tabulations) is not possible. When taken together, however, the different data sources do indicate a pattern; the decade of the 1960s has been one of growth and prosperity for Metropolitan Edmonton. The information also indicates that the demand for industrial land in the City has become much more intense in the 1970-1972 period than in previous years.
_16 _
B.
Employment Trends: Edmonton Metropolitan Area (1)
Total employment in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area grew from an estimated figure of 127,285 in 1961 to 205,632 in 1970 (equivalent to a 61.6% absolute increase and a
5.3% average annual
percentage increase).(2) During this period the service category of employment was dominant.(3) The service category increased 98.4% between 1961 and 1970 or an average annual percentage increase of 7.8%. In 1961 the service category accounted for 35.2% of all employment; in 1970 the service category accounted for 43.2% of all employment. Included in the service category of employment are community, business and personal services, public administration and defense.
(1) 1961 Census Metropolitan Area boundaries are used consistently for 1961 and 1970 employment statistics. Figure 1 identifies the 1961 Census boundary as compared with the 1971 Census Metropolitan Area boundary and the Edmonton Sub-Region boundary. The Sub-Region is the geographic area used for the employment projections presented in Chapter IV of this report. (2) Employment data was obtained from several sources. Actual statistics for manufacturing employment (by detailed industry) were available for 1961 and 1970, from the Alberta Bureau of Statistics. Labour force statistics and a survey of large firm employment from the Dominion Bureau of Statistics were the basis for 1961 and 1970 employment estimates. The detailed methodology followed in estimating 1961 and 1970 employment is summarized in Appendix III. All employment figures should be updated when 1971 Census data becomes available. (3) See "definitions" at front of report. It should be noted that a number of firms in the service category are directly linked to primary and manufacturing activities and are an important user of industrial land.
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- 18 -
The service category of employment is an important segment of the tertiary sector. Other dominant employment categories are also included in the tertiary sector. Trade accounted for 17.3% of total employment in 1970, the second largest employment category.
Transportation, warehousing communications and other
utilities was also important in terms of size, accounting for 10.8% of total 1970 employment.
Employment in the primary industry is estimated to be 3.0% of total 1970 employment. Although this is a decline in percent of total employment from 1961, it represents an absolute increase of 1,968 persons and an average annual percentage increase of This increase is largely due to the expansion of oil and gas exploration activities in Alberta and the North. Because the service category of employment is growing at a rapid rate, however, the importance of the primary employment category as compared with total employment is declining. Due to the lack of large firm employment data for primary or other unclassified industries, the 1970 estimates for these categories are extremely uncertain and should be updated when 1971 Census data is available. Employment figures for major categories are indicated on Tables 4 and 5.
Actual statistics for manufacturing employment (including employment by detailed category) were available for 1961 and 1970 (see Tables 6 and 7). Manufacturing employment declined from 13.3% of total 1961 employment to 9.9% of 1970 employment. The absolute increase in manufacturing employment was 3,351 persons in this nine year period, equivalent to an annual average percentage increase of 2.2%. While manufacturing is becoming less significant in terms of percent of total employment, its importance for a stable and prosperous economy and tax base cannot be over-emphasized.
- 19 Table
Employment by Industry: Metropolitan Edmonton (1) 1961 - 1970
industry Primary
1961 Estimated Employment
% Total
1970 Estimated Employment
% Total
4,201
3.3%
6,169
3.0%
Manufacturing
16,907
13.3%
20,258
9.9%
Construction
12,037
9.5%
17,274
8.4%
Transportation, Warehousing, Communications and Other Utilities
14,172
11.1%
22,520
10.8%
Trade
26,802
21.1%
35,540
17.3%
8,342
4.1%
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Service Other Unclassified TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
(1)
5,293 44,757
35.2%
88,798
43.2%
3,116
2.4%
6,731
3.3%
127,285
100.02
205,632
100.0%
1961 Census Metropolitan Area boundaries used. The method used to estimate 1961 and 1970 employment is summarized in Appendix III.
SOURCE: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1961 Census of Canada, Labour Force, Series 3-2, Bulletin 3.2-2, Metropolitan Areas, Table 2. Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Employment and Average Weekly Wages and Salaries, Monthly Bulletin, 1970-71, Cat. No. 72-002.
- 20 -
Table 5 Change in Employment by Industry: Metropolitan Edmonton(1) 1961 - 1970
Industry
1961 Estimated Employment
1970 Estimated Employment
1961-1970 Employment Increase
1961-1970 % Increase
Average Annual % Increase(2)
4,201
6,169
1,968
46.8%
5.3%
Manufacturing
16,907
20,258
3,351
19.8%
2.2%
Construction
12,037
17,274
5,237
43.5%
4.1%
Transportation, Warehousing, Communications and 14,172 Other Utilities
22,520
8,348
58.9%
5.3%
26,802
35,540
8,738
32.6%
3.22
5,293
8,342
3,049
57.62
5.2%
44,757
88,798
44,041
98.4%
7.9%
3,116
6,731
3,615
116.02
8.6%
127,285
205,632
78,347
61.6%
5.3%
Primary
Trade Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Service Other Unclassified TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
(1) 1961 Census Metropolitan Area boundaries used. [l/n (log x - log y)] - 1 (2) Average Annual Percentage Increase = log where: n = number of intervals x = end year employment y = base year employment SOURCE: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1961 Census of Canada, Labour Force, Bulletin 3.2-2 Metropolitan Area, Table 2. Dominion Bureau of Statistics Employment and Average Weekly Wages and Salaries, Monthly Bulletin, 1970-1971, Cat. No. 72-002.
-21 -
The construction industry is estimated to have experienced a 4.1% average annual percentage increase in employment during the 19611970 period. Manufacturing and construction employment together comprise the secondary sector.
Within manufacturing, food and beverage employment was dominant. In 1970 food and beverage employment accounted for 28.2% of manufacturing employment.
It is the most significant industry for
value added accounting for $73,976,000 of the total $285,091,000 value added figure for all Edmonton manufacturing in 1970.(4) Value added figures reflect the extent to which the industry is engaged in manufacturing. Unfortunately the data is not detailed enough to indicate whether this high value added figure results from a large number of firms doing small amounts of processing or fewer large firms contributing large value added figures to the total (see Table 9).
Metal fabricating was another dominant industry in Edmonton in the 1961-1970 period accounting for 12.4% of total 1970 manufacturing employment. Metal fabricating was also an important industry in terms of value added.
Rapid employment growth between 1961 and 1970 was experienced by the industries of clothing and knitting (58%), printing, publishing, and allied (54%), metal fabricating (51%), machinery (251%) (5), non-metallic mineral products (55%) and miscellaneous manufacturing (84%). Although food and beverage employment is
(4) Value added is the value of goods produced less the cost of materials, fuel and electricity. (5) This high percent increase is the result of a low 1961 employment figure which makes a relatively small numerical increase appear large in percentage terms.
- 22
the largest single category of employment in manufacturing, it increased only 24% in the 1961-1970 period.
In 1970 Edmonton accounted for 44% of total Alberta employment in food and beverage, 90% of Alberta employment in clothing and knitting, 62% of Alberta employment in furniture and fixtures, and 63% of Alberta employment in petroleum and coal products. Strong gains in Edmonton's share of total Alberta employment between 1961 and 1970 were experienced in non-metallic mineral products, petroleum and coal products and miscellaneous manufacturing. For total manufacturing, however, the Edmonton employment declined as a percent of total Alberta employment. Edmonton accounted for 42% of total Alberta manufacturing employment in 1961 and 40% in 1970. Nevertheless, manufacturing employment in Metropolitan Edmonton increased 32% in the 1961 to 1970 period, a rate close to the total Provincial increase of 37%, and significantly more than the national increase in manufacturing employment of 18% (see Tables 7 and 8).
Overall, the trends in Metropolitan Edmonton reflect the importance of manufacturing related to the natural resource base (food and beverage, petroleum and coal products), and manufacturing industries related to construction (metal fabricating, non-metallic minerals). Since natural resource development such as oil and gas exploration and production activities create a demand for construction materials, these two areas are inter-related. The importance of the clothing industry and the growth in industries such as furniture and fixtures and miscellaneous manufacturing (including rubber and plastics, leather, textiles, electrical products and other miscellaneous) reflects the development of a more diversified manufacturing base.
23 -
Table 6
Manufacturing Employment: Metropolitan Edmonton (1) 1961
Industry
1961 Employment
1970
% Total
1970 Employment
% Total
Food & Beverage
4,623
30.1%
5,718
28.2°
Clothing and Kn i tt i ng
1,119
7.3%
1,769
8.7%
Wood
879
5.7%
940
4.6%
Furniture
548
3.6%
739
3.6%
Paper and Allied
311
2.0%
6.3%
Printing, Publishing & Allied
832
5.4%
1,280
Primary Metals
677
4.4%
*
1,671
10.9%
2,518
179
1.2%
628
3.1%
1,165
7.6%
751
3.7%
Non-Metallic Mineral Products
893
5.8%
1,385
6.8%
Petroleum and Coal Products
728
4.8%
679
3.4%
Chemical and Chemical Products
922
6.0%
*
Miscellaneous Mfg.(2)
795
5.2%
1,466
7.2%
15,342
100.02
20,258
100.09
Metal Fabricating Machinery Trans. Equipment
TOTAL MANUFACTURING
*
* Information confidential due to disclosure of individual firms. (1) 1961 Census Metropolitan Area boundaries are used. (2) Includes rubber and plastics, textiles, leather, electrical products and other manufacturing. SOURCE: Alberta Bureau of Statistics, Alberta Industry and Resources, 19614 and 1973.
-24-
Table 7 Manufacturing Employment: Metropolitan Edmonton, Metropolitan Calgary, Alberta and Canada 1961 - 1970
Metropolitan Edmonton (1)
Industry
Metropolitan Calgary (1)
Alberta
Canada (2) (Estimate)
11,093 13,249 2,156 19%
203,842 208,458 4,616 2%
Food & Beverage
1961 1970 Change % Change
4,623 5,718 1,095 24%
3,374 3,606 232 7%
Clothing and Knitting (3)
1961 1970 Change % Change
1,119 1,769 650 58%
88 * * *
1,240 1,976 736 59%
85,493 91,573 6,080 7%
Wood
1961 1970 Change % Change
879 940 61 7%
350 1,154 804 230%
3,470 5,298 1,828 53%
91,950 82,559 -9,391 -10%
Furniture and Fixtures
1961 1970 Change % Change
548 739 191 35%
235 394 159 68%
818 1,187 369 45%
33,197 39,703 6,506 20%
Paper and Allied
1961 1970 Change % Change
311 * * *
296 * * *
1,200 1,557 357 30%
94,525 113,815 19,290 20%
Printing, Publishing and Allied
1961 1970 Change % Change
832 1,280 448 54%
962 1,664 702 73%
2,350 3,722 1,372 58%
78,366 79,002 636 1%
Primary Metals
1961 1970 Change % Change
667 * * *
206 661 455 221%
1,551 3,053 1,502 97%
83,845 109,552 25,707 31%
Metal Fabricating
1961 1970 Change % Change
1,671 2,518 847 51%
1,306 2,455 1,149 88%
3,315 5,628 2,313 70%
95,656 132,259 36,603 38%
25
Table 7 Continued Canada Metropolitan Metropolitan Edmonton Calgary Alberta (Estimate)
Industry Machinery
1961 1970 Change % Change
179 628 449 251%
82 529 447 5452
387 1,413 1,026 265%
46,334 75,702 29,368 63%
Transportation Equipment
1961 1970 Change % Change
1,165 751 -414 -36%
1,748 974 -774 -44%
3,073 2,803 -270 -9%
109,760 138,160 28,400 269
Non-Metallic Mineral Products
1961 1970 Change % Change
893 1,385 492 55%
804 637 -167 -21%
3,268 3,399 131 4%
43,728 46,155 2,428 6%
Petroleum and Coal Products
1961 1970 Change % Change
728 679 -49 -7%
439 273 -166 -38%
1,462 1,079 -383 -26°
15,772 14,708 -1,064
Chemicals and Allied Products
1961 1970 Change % Change
922 * * *
499 732 233 47%
1,821 2,495 674 37%
64,644 65,866 1,222 2%
Miscellaneous Manufacturing(4)
1961 1970 Change % Change
795 1,466 671 84%
651 1,301 650 50%
1,685 2,493 808 32%
238,442 300,790 62,348 26%
TOTAL MANUFACTURING
1961 1970 Ch4nge % Change
15,342 20,258 4,916 32%
11,040 15,246 4,206 38%
36,733 50,352 13,619 37%
1,306,524 1,538,469 231,945 18%
* Information confidential due to disclosure of individual firms. (1) 1961 Census Metropolitan Area boundaries used. (2) 1961 and 1970 employment figures for Canada estimated from labour force statistics. (3) For 1961 this category includes clothing only. Knitting is included with miscellaneous manufacturing. (4) Miscellaneous manufacturing includes rubber and plastics, leather, textiles, electrical products and others. SOURCE: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1961 Census of Canada, Labour Force, Series 3.2, Bulletin 3.2-1, Canada and the Provinces, Table 1. Alberta Bureau of Statistics, Alberta Industry and Resources, 1964 and 1973 Statistics Canada, Summary of Statistics, 1970 Annual Census of Manufacturers, Cat. No. 31-201. Statistics Canada, Facts About the Unemployed 1960-1971, Cat. No. 71-520.
26-
Table 8 Manufacturing Employment: Metropolitan Edmonton as a Percent of Alberta 1961 - 1970 (1) Metro Edmonton Employment As a Percent of Alberta 1961 - 1970 Change in %
1961
1970
Food and Beverage
42%
44%
Clothing and Knitting
90%
90%
Wood
25%
182
Furniture and Fixtures
67%
62%
Paper and Allied
26%
*
Printing, Publishing and Allied
35%
34%
- 1
Primary Metals
44%
Metal Fabricating
50%
45%
- 5
Machinery
39%
44%
+ 5
Transportation Equipment
38%
27%
-11
Non-Metallic Mineral Products
27%
41%
+14
50%
63%
+13
Chemicals and Chemical Products
51%
*
*
Miscellaneous Manufacturing (2)
47%
59%
+12
42%
40%
- 2
Industry
Petroleum and Coal Products
TOTAL MANUFACTURING
+ 2
- 5
* Information confidential due to disclosure of individual firms. (1) 1961 Census Metropolitan Area boundaries used. (2) Miscellaneous manufacturing includes rubber and plastics, leather, textiles, electrical products and others. SOURCE: Statistics and sources used to compile figures listed on Table 7.
Table 9 Value Added for Manufacturing Industries Metropolitan Edmonton,(1) Alberta and Canada 1961 - 1970
Industry Food and Beverage Rubber and Plastics Leather Textiles Clothing and Knitting Wood Furniture and Fixtures Paper and Allied Printing, Pub. & Allied Primary Metals Metal Fabricating Machinery Transportation Equipment Electrical Products Non-Metallic Mineral Prod. Petroleum & Coal Prod. Chemicals & Chemical Prod. Misc, Manufacturing TOTAL MANUFACTURING
Metropolitan Edmonton(2) ($,000) 1970 Change 1961
1961
Alberta ($,000) 1970
* * 15,550 8,100 5,769 * 17,904 * 27,079 7,017 6,026 1,154 32,925 32,004 * 4,257
* * 156 60 58 * 100 * 99 * * * 107 * * 66
485 2,950 6,681 17,299 5,335 20,510 21,783 21,418 26,318 2,869 14,835 * 34,589 30,119 33,765 3,960
182,584 15,052 1,701 6,970 16,68] 48,726 9,477 28,553 45,403 42,815 67,734 14,956 23,759 14,767 63,204 43,153 55,185 8,901
137,030 285,091
108
346,732
690,071
40,524 * *
* 6,065 5,041 3,639 3,526 8,976 16,994 13,561 * * * 15,897 * 20,245 2,562
73,976
*
82 *
95,174 *
Change
1961
Canada ($,000) 1970
91
1,704,714 221,704
250
81 43 63 124
140,388 392,689 377,072 431,373 185,103 1,071,316 591,099 1,129,978 739,019 329,766 828,670 617,534 381,394 290,698 760,928 309,475
3,124,097 589,449 203,434 706,690 659,130 801,788 389,867 1,815,393 1,039,237 1,808,878 1,788,556 1,222,696 2,194,927 1,422,442 751,136 360,634 1,493,749 659,161
99
0,682,138
21,418,233
136 14 181 77 39 108 99 157 421 60
Change
71 165 44 79 74 85 110 69 75 60 142 270 166 130
96 24 96 112 100
* Information confidential due to disclosure of individual firms. (1) Value added refers to value of goods produced less the cost of materials, fuels and electricity. (2) 1961 Census Metropolitan Area boundaries used. SOURCE: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Manufacturing Industry of Canada, Section A, Summary for Canada 1961, Cat. No. 31-203, -Section E, Prairie Provinces, Cat. No. 31-207. Statistics Canada, Summary of Statistics 1970 Annual Census of Manufacturers, Cat. No. 31-201. Alberta Bureau of Statistics, industry and Resources 1973, Tables 12- 14, P. 25-33.
- 28 -
C.
Industrial Areas in Edmonton
The major industrial areas in the City of Edmonton used as a basis for data collection are illustrated on Figure 2. Although each area includes a wide variety of industrial and commercial uses, they are characterized by different mixes of types of firms and different iocational advantages. Each area is briefly described below: North-West: This area is one of the fastest growing industrial areas of the City, largely as a result of access to the Yellowhead Highway and Northern transporation routes. The area is characterized by a variety of warehouse and wholesale firms including a cluster of food and beverage warehouses. A wide variety of manufacturing firms are also located in the North-West. The largest single category of manufacturing is non-metallic mineral products with eleven firms represented. Future industrial development in the North-West is expected to be strong when the extension of trunk storm and sanitary sewer facilities to serve this area is completed in 1974-1975. Airport and North: This area includes the land surrounding the Industrial Airport and the land located along the railroad track corridor near 127 Avenue. The industries located here include a mix of manufacturing, warehouse, and office uses. Proximity to the Industrial Airport is a special locational advantage. Aviation related firms as well as small engineering and contracting offices have located near the Industrial Airport. Most of the land in this industrial area is developed. It is expected to be fairly stable in the future. North-East: Many of the large meatpacking plants in Edmonton are centered in the North-East area. There are a variety of other types of manufacturing firms as well. Manufacturing firms are dominant accounting for 26.0% of all manufacturing, construction, warehouse and wholesale firms combined. This is the highest ratio of manufacturing firms to total industrial firms of any area in Edmonton, although many other areas have a higher total number of manufacturing firms. Future development in North-East Edmonton (east of the designated industrial area) is handicapped by several factors: lack of easy access to the Yellowhead Highway and Calgary Trail; lack of land services; lack of free interswitching
-29 services; and air pollution problems. If the problems of access and land services are resolved, the area may well be attractive to specialized meat processing firms and others. Development potential is very low at the present time and will probably not improve until these problems are resolved. North Central: This area has traditionally been the wholesale and warehouse district serving the downtown area. Proximity to both downtown and railroad facilities are locational advantages. Although the majority of firms located in the area are warehousing and wholesale establishments, there are some indications that rising land costs and expansion of the downtown are forcing some firms to relocate to outlying areas. A moderate turnover is expected for the future with more intensive service and retail uses replacing industrial uses. Central: The Central Area is characterized by retail and public land uses, as opposed to industrial uses. Nevertheless, there are as many as 41 manufacturing firms and 87 warehousing and wholesale firms in the area. Many of these firms are small operations which have been in the downtown area for many years. Other firms are attracted by the accessibility of the downtown for employees and the demand for goods and services created by other businesses. A dominant cluster of manufacturing firms is in printing and publishing. A moderate trend toward relocation to outlying areas is expected to characterize this area in the future as individual firms require additional land for expansion. Calgary Trail: The industrial area near the Calgary Trail is another area that developed along a railway line. Today it is characterized by a mix of manufacturing, warehousing and wholesale establishments. Metal fabricating and primary metals manufacturing are dominant industries. This area is expected to remain fairly stable in the future with the exception of industrial areas near Whyte Avenue which may experience pressures for higher intensity commercial development. South: This industrial area includes Strathcona Industrial Park and several other industries, as well as some dwellings on small holdings. The majority of the area is undeveloped. Sanitary sewer and storm sewer facilities are expected to be available shortly, opening up the development potential of this area. It is expected that a mix of large and small firms, including many firms related to manufacturing and oil and gas
-30 operations will choose this location. A special research and office park is proposed in the Outline Plan. In effect, the South Industrial Area will be a continuation of the South-East industrial Area, although attention to amenities is expected to be important because of the proximity to the Mill Woods residential area. South-East: The South-East has been the centre for the oil and gas related firms as well as a major location for primary metals and metal fabricating operations in Edmonton. Warehousing of various types is also found in this area. This area is a major industrial growth area in Edmonton, in part, because of the good access to Calgary Trail and the Yellowhead Highway and because of the oil related firms now located in the area. There are at least 2,000 gross acres of land in the South-East Industrial Area currently undeveloped. Although much of this land is unserviced, there are sizable areas that can be serviced from existing trunk sanitary and storm sewer lines. Developed industrial land in Edmonton and the surrounding area is indicated on Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5.
Designated outline plan boundaries
for the North-West, North-East, South and the South-East areas are also indicated. Figures 4 and 5 also show the zoning categories of outlying industrial areas as specified in the Preliminary Regional Plan, Metropolitan Part. Although not shown in these figures, land in the General Industrial Zone within the City has been assigned a more specific industrial zoning classification as well, such as M-1, M-2, M-3 (see "definitions" at the front of this report).
There are many firms scattered throughout the City outside of definite industrial areas.
It is estimated that as many as 56 manu-
facturing firms and 48 warehouse or wholesale firms are located outside major industrial areas.
In addition to industrial firms,
there are numerous construction contractors, service firms and retail firms located in industrial areas. The distribution of types of industrial firms throughout the City illustrates well the danger of over-generalization. The City of Edmonton, like other urban areas, has a highly complex land use structure. Although certain districts may be characterized by a certain type of firm, clustering patterns
Legend 1 North-West 2 Airport and North
5 Central 6 Calgary Trail
3 North—East 4 North-Central
7 South-East 8 South
INDUSTRIAL DISTRICTS CITY OF EDMONTON 1973 Source : Planning Department
Figure 2
OATH- EAST INDUSTRIAL 4REA
.--,7 SO H-EAST DUSTRIAL AREA
SOUTH INDUSTRIAL AREA
Legend
DEVELOPED INDUSTRIAL LAND
1973 - EDMONTON AREA
Developed industrial land Source; Planning Department Industrial Outline Plan boundary
Figure 3
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3C
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viI
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Legend
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111111111
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Figure 4
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SOUTH AND SOUTH-EAST
INDUSTRIAL AREAS 1973 Source: Planning Department
Figure 5
- 35
are never simple. Clustering occurs among like firms to some extent but also among firms that service each other. Conversations with firms in Edmonton suggest that although there may be an "optimum" location in the City for a particular firm, other locations may be suitable as well. Recently, availability of land has been a major factor influencing location decisions of individual firms in the City.
Information on the number of firms in each industrial area by type of industry is summarized on Tables 10 and 11.
This data was
obtained from 1972 City Assessor's records and compiled by the City Planning Department through the Population and Land Use System. Only those firms for which information about employees and acreages was recorded by the Assessor's Department are counted, making the statistics approximately Elo% accurate.(6)
Table 12 indicates the total number of employees, net acres and employee densities (employees/acre) for each major industrial category. Because employee densities and total employment by category vary significantly between industries, information about the distribution of industrial firms in the City must be used with caution; total employment and industrial land occupied are not reflected. Manufacturing firms together account for more employment than either construction or warehousing and wholesale firms. Warehousing and wholesale firms, on the other hand, utilize more than half the total land used by these three categories combined. Construction firms are large in number but use small amounts of industrial land. The actual density figures (employees/acre) are used as a basis for the land demand projections in Chapter IV of this report.
(6) A comparison of these statistics with other information sources suggests that the categories of food and beverage, furniture and fixtures, and printing, publishing and allied may be understating the number of firms by as much as 40%. However, other categories are more accurate. These employment statistics are for the City of Edmonton in 1972, as opposed to Metropolitan Edmonton in 1970 (the basis for other employment statistics used in this report).
Table 10 Geographic Distribution of Industrial Firms City of Edmonton - 1972 North- Central Calgary South Trail Central
SouthEast
Other CITY TOTAL areas of City
NorthWest
Airport North & North East
73 25.6%
22 35.5%
29 46.0%
37 23.6%
41 27.5%
57 43.5%
3 27.3%
100 33.4%
56 18.3%
418 28.6%
74 26.0%
21 33.9%
18 28.6%
33 21.0%
31 20.8%
12 9.2%
0 0.02
65 21.7%
202 66.0%
456 31.2%
138 48.4%
19 30.6%
16 25.4%
87 55.4%
77 51.79
62 47.3%
8 72.7%
134 44.8%
48 15.7%
589 40.2%
285
62
63
11
299
306
Manufacturing Number of Firms (1) % Total Construction Number of Firms (1) % Total Warehousing & Wholesale Trade Number of Firms (1) % Total
TOTAL FIRMS IN THE ABOVE CATEGORIES
157
149
The above categories do not include all industrial land uses. (1) Number of firms approximate, see text for explanation. SOURCE: Population and Land Use System Research and Long Range Planning Branch City Planning Department
131
1,463
Table 11 Geographic Distribution of Manufacturing Firms City of Edmonton 1972 Number of Firms (approximate) NorthWest Frods & Beverage Clothing Wood Furniture and Fixtures Paper and Allied Printing, Publishing and Allied Primary Metals Metal Fabricating Machinery and Transportation Equipment Non-metallic Mineral Products Petroleum and Coal Prod. Chem. and Chemical Prod. Misc. Mfg. Total Manufacturing
Airport North- North- Central Calgary South South- Other CITY TOTAL East Areas Trail & North East Central of City
13 5 3 3
3 5 1 0
6 1 1 0
0 0 0 1
5 1 10 0
5 4 5 8
48 17 36
0
0
1
1
1
0
5
1 3 1
18 1 0
4 9
0 0
20
1
3 7 49
6 1 5
38
4
0 1 6
93
1
3
1
2
5
0
4
0
19
11 1 1 24
0 0 0
1 0 0
5
0
0
1 2
1 2
0 0
5
0 0 0 2
6
3
7
0
4 5 5 6
11 1 1 9
32 9 11 62
73
22
29
37
41
57
3
100
56
418
3
4
0
0
5 7
6
9 1 5
0 0
2 0
6 3 7
0
3
2
2
21
27
* Due to difference in data sources, these categories are not the same in all cases as categories used for other tables of this report. SOURCE:
Population apd Land Use System Research and Long Range Planning Branch. City Planning Department
1 ,..,.)
.....: 1
Table 12 Employment Densities for Predominant Uses of Industrial Land City of Edmonton 1972 Industry.
1972 Total Employment
1972 Total Net Acres
Employment Density (Employees/Acre) (1)
3,410 1,723 585 442 57
81.3 9.6 64.3 21.1 9.4
42 179 10 21 6
1,014 558 1,603
13.5 39.3 100.7
75 14 16
474
25.7
18
784
40.4
19
162
8.1
20
173
15.2 55.8
11
660 11,645
484.6
24
CONSTRUCTION
4,750
223.8
21
WAREHOUSING AND WHOLESALE
8,793
738.5
12
25,199
1,447.2
17
Food and Beverage Clothing Wood Furniture and Fixtures Paper and Allied Printing, Publishing and Allied Primary Metals Metal Fabricating Machinery and Transportation Equipment Non-Metallic Mineral Products Petroleum and Coal Products Chemical and Chemical Products Miscellaneous Mfg. TOTAL MANUFACTURING
TOTAL MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION, WAREHOUSING AND WHOLESALE *
12
Commercial Land Uses (both retail and service) accounted for 313.9 acres or 17.8% of net developed commercial and industrial acres in industrial zones in 1972.
(1) These statistics are only 80% accurate and should be used with caution. See Table 6 for more accurate 1970 Metropolitan Edmonton employment statistics. SOURCE: Population and Land Use System Research and Long Range Planning Branch City Planning Department
39D.
Availability of Serviced Industrial Land In Edmonton
In addition to understanding the current distribution of industrial land uses in the City of Edmonton, it is important to understand industrial land development trends.
Information
concerning the current availability of industrial land is especially important as a guide for City programs and priorities. Due to increased demand for industrial land over the past several years, serviced industrial land is currently in short supply.
Table 13 summarizes industrial land development by year (1962-1971), by type of land use and by industrial zone. Large fluctuations in total industrial land developed were experienced for individual years between 1962 and 1971, as might be expected in view of business trends. The lowest total amount of industrial zoned land developed for commercial, industrial and other uses for any single year was 83.38 net acres, recorded for 1965. The greatest amount for a single year was 231.39 net acres, developed for industrial use in 1963. The average yearly development total over this time period was 143.19 net acres. Within this average 29.96 acres were for commercial uses, 101.19 acres were industrial uses and 12.04 acres were other land uses, such as residential and public.
In the 1962 to 1971 period, 9.58 net acres of industrial land were built upon in the C-M zone in the Central Area of the City. Except for this area and some isolated parcels, land development was concentrated in the outlying areas, especially in the North-West and South-East Industrial Areas.
Table 13 Land Development Trends in Industrial Zones City of Edmonton 1962-1971 (Page 1) (Acres) Year of Building Completion
M-1 Land Built Upon Comm. Ind. Other Total
M-2 Land Built Upon Other Total Comm. Ind,
M-3 Land Built Upon Other Total Comm. Ind.
1962
4.77
20.56
-
25.33
27.85
37.47
9.77
75.09
7.15
14.23
0.12
21.50
1963
2.92
12.84
-
15.76
28.55
56.28
3.88
88.71
2.79
4.92
15.10
22.81
1964
4.98
11.82
-
16.80
10.38
40.17
0.19
50.74
1.80
7.62
0.59
10.01
1965
9.91
15.69
-
25.60
7.34
24.46
6.92
38.72
5.83
10.44
0.30
16.57
1966
1.21
24.23 2.94
28.38
33.30
16.47
1.38
51.15
10.44
12.21
5.54
28.19
1967
6.96
16.50
-
23.46
8.70
71.94
4.86
85.50
6.38
12.88
1968
11.98
30.76
-
42.74
11.38
30.84
5.62
47.84
3.44
15.99
5.62
25.05
1969
3.70
26.80
30.50
6.27
54.25
0.10
60.62
4.48
6.50
2.52
13.50
1970
6.96
26.33
33.29
12.91
54.00
2.50
69.41
0.45
10.70
1971
17.16
5.24
22.40
1.22
48.00
4.84
54.06
-
0.46
1.01
1.47
Total
70.55
190.77 2.94
264.26
147.90
4334 88
40.06
621.84
42.76
95.95
30.80
169.51
7.05
19.08 0.29
26.43
14.79
43.39
4.01
62.18
4.28
9.59
3.08
16.95
Average
-
-
19.26
11.15
Table 13 (continued) Land Development Trends in Industrial Zones City of Edmonton 1962-1971 (cont'd) Year of Building Completion
C-M Land Built Upon Other Total Comm. Ind.
1962
0.82
1963 1964 1965
0.32 -
1.41
0.52 0.16
0.17
0.68
1967
0.34
0.34
-
2.75
-
1966
1968
0.52
AG-MR1 Land Built Upon Other Total Ind. Comm.
-
-
41.41
0.37
41.78
40.59
115.08
10.78
166.45
66.91
37.20
104.11
34.26
140.95
56.18
231.39
0.84
0.44
87.24
3.32
91.00
17.92
147.37
4.10
169.39
0.16
0.28
1.96
0.09
2.33
23.36
52.71
7.31
83.38
11.69
45.12
65.28
9.86
120.26
35.91
23.38
136.57
4.86
164.81
12.09
31.40
85.08
11.26
127.74
31.36
18.68
112.10
5.95
136.73
32.20
44.77
100.59
4.22
149.58
4.23-
20.11
56.20
5.85
82.16
299.59 1011.93 120.37
1431.89
12.04
143.19
11.69
0.85 -
0.68
1.00
34.91
0.02
0.02
4.60
7.49
1969
0.23
0.52
0.75
4.00
24.55
1970
1.81
1.72
3.53
22.64
9.56
1.73
2.50
1971
-
-
-
2.81
-
Total
3.69
3.11
2.78
9.58
34.69
288.22
43.79
366.70
Average
0.37
0.31
0.28
0.96
3.47
28.82
4.38
36.67
SOURCE:
Total Land Built Upon Total Other Comm. Ind.
Research and Long Range Planning Branch City Planning Department
29.96
101.19
- 42 -
Of the total 1,431.89 net acres of industrial zoned land built upon in the 1962 to 1971 period, 18.4% was zoned 11-1, 43.4% was zoned 11-2, 11.9% was zoned M-3, 0.7% was zoned C-M, and 26.6% was zoned AG-MR1. These figures reflect the importance of the 11-2 Zoning District in the City which accommodates a large variety of industrial firms without the high standards for appearance and landscaping required in the M-1 district.
In 1972, 163 acres of land were developed in industrial zones, according to a special industrial lot survey of the City Planning Department. (7) Parcels enclosed by a permanent wire fence or appearing to be used for industrial storage were considered to be developed in this survey. The land development statistics on Table 13, on the other hand, include only land actually built upon. Despite the differences in definitions it is apparant that 1972 was a strong year for industrial land development; that was confirmed in conversations with thirteen Edmonton area realtors and industrial developers.
As of October, 1972, 385 acres of industrial land in Edmonton were vacant and fully-serviced. (8) An additional 213 acres of land were vacant and partly-serviced. As used in this survey,
"serviced"
land is defined as land where water, sanitary and
storm sewer, power, telephone, pavement, curb and gutter and street lighting are available. Partly-serviced land refers to land where one or more of these services is missing. Vacancy statistics can be misleading, however, because they do not reflect what land is actually available to industries.
In fact,
many acres of vacant industrial land are not available for development due to replot problems, personal reasons of owners and other reasons.
(7) City Planning Department, "Industrial Lot Count-City of Edmonton," October 31, 1972. (8) Ibid.
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To obtain a count of "industrial land availability," a series of interviews with industrial realtors and developers were conducted utilizing detailed maps showing vacant serviced percels. Through these discussions, information about the availability of approximately 75% of all vacant serviced parcels of industrial land under private ownership was obtained. (9) Complete information on the availability of City-owned industrial land was obtained from the City Property and Building Management Department. No account was made of prices of industrial land which are making it increasingly difficult for industry in general to consider land purchase within the City boundaries. Because serviced industrial land prices in Edmonton are high, the availability figures overstate the amount of land that really is available. Table 14 summarizes the vacant industrial land situation as of January, 1973. Detailed statistics are reported in Appendix 11.
According to the land availability survey, as of January, 1973, 40.6 acres of land, both privately and publicly owned, were available with complete services. An additional 44.5 acres of serviced land were available for lease. A total of 54.3 acres of partly-serviced land were available. A large majority of partly-serviced land had water, storm sewer, and sanitary sewer available, and hence could be developed by industries willing to wait for the other services.
In summary,
a total of 139.4 acres of land was available either for sale or lease that could reasonably be developed. An additional 24.6 acres of land in the North-West Industrial Area and two acres of land in the South and South-East Industrial Areas will be available when roads are complete in 1973-1974. Although a detailed survey of vacant industrial buildings was not made, field surveys indicate many small warehouse office
(9)
Remaining 25% of vacant serviced parcels are probably not readily available to industries since they were not familiar to industrial realtors.
Table 14 Summary of Vacant Industrial Land City of Edmonton, January, 1973 PRIVATELY-OWNED LAND Serviced & Available For Lease
Total Vacant Partly Serviced
6.5 0.0 23.7
7.5 0.0 37.0
62.5 25.7 104.0
45%
2.5
6% 63%
0.0 51.8
30.2
44.5
192.2
49%
54.3
Percentage Serviced & lnvesti-Available gated for Sale
Area
Total Vacant Serviced (net acres)
North-West North-East South-East
83.4 19.7 151.0
83% 45% 73%
SUB-TOTAL
254.1
74%
Percentage Investigated
Partly Serviced & Available
PUBLICLY-OWNED LAND Area
Total Vacant Serviced (net acres)
Percentage lnvestigated
Serviced & Available For Sale
Serviced & Available For Lease
North-West North-East South-East
19.4 11.5 55.8
100% 100% 100%
3.8 0.0 6.6
0 0 0
SUB-TOTAL
86.7
100%
10.4
0
40.6
44.5
TOTAL PRIVATE AND PUBLICLY-OWNED LAND
340.0
SOURCE: Research and Long Range Planning Branch, City Planning Department.
Total Vacant Partly Serviced
10.0 25.4 11.0
46.4
238.5
Percentage lnvestigated
Partly Serviced & Available
100% 100% 100%
0 0 0
100%
0
54.3
-45-
units available, but few vacancies in larger buildings. Information from the City of Edmonton Business Development Department and area realtors suggests that M-2 and M-3 industrial lands are especially needed.
With only 40.6 acres of fully-serviced industrial land available, Edmonton has a severe shortage at the present time. Letters from firms wishing to locate in Edmonton and information from the Business Development Department indicate that an acute shortage has in fact been present since 1969. As will be detailed in Chapter V of this report, a strong demand for industrial land is expected to continue in the next decade. It is extremely important that the City take strong actions to alleviate the shortage as soon as possible.
E.
Industrial Planning and Land Development in Edmonton
The character of industrial land development and the focus of land planning for industry in the City of Edmonton has evolved slowly over the past half century. Early industrial planning (as reflected in the 1933 zoning map) provided land for industry along major railroad lines.
In the past decade
planning for industry has been broadened to encompass a range of considerations, including the type and quality of industrial development.
In the past year, the short supply of fully-
serviced industrial land has added another area of concern.
Planning for industrial land has attempted to respond to the changing needs of industry in Edmonton. Land in a number of different locations was zoned for industrial use in 1933, including 125 Avenue, St. Albert Trail, 111 Street north of
-46Jasper Avenue, 105 Street downtown, and 127 Avenue and scattered areas in the North-East on the North Side of the City; and 104 Street, 98 Street, and
99
Street on the South
Side. Many of these areas offered the advantage of direct access to railroad facilities.
Industrial land uses may still
be found in many of these areas. More recently, however, increasing land values in the Central Area and the growing need of industries for large tracts of land have stimulated a decentralization of industrial uses to outlying areas of the City, especially to the North-West and the South-East.
The types of land needed by industry in Edmonton have become more diverse as the City has matured.
In 1946 with the
discovery of oil in Leduc, there was a strong demand for large parcels of industrial land suitable for storing oil pipeline and related supplies.
In the early 1950's, oil products and
processing became important, creating a demand for larger parcels away from heavily urbanized areas. The 1950's also experienced the growth in the oil-service sector and the resulting demand for small offices in industrial or semi-industrial areas.
In the 1960's firms from Eastern Canada or the United
States establishing branch offices, plants, or warehouses created an increasing demand for attractive industrial areas, and a variety of parcel sizes.
Planning for industrial land over
these years has attempted to remain flexible to meet the needs of industry.
In recognition of the growing need for attractive industrial areas, the City of Edmonton established the Bonaventure Industrial Park in the early 1960's (North-West Industrial Area). Because the City owned large areas of land in the designated area, it was possible to encourage a high standard of development through the
-47-
review of proposals on an individual basis. Most of Bonaventure Park is zoned M-1, requiring landscaping, screening of storage and trucking yards, and good architectural design of buildings.
Strathcona Industrial Park in the South Industrial Area is currently the only privately-owned industrial park in the City planned around a formal usage concept. The intent of the Park is to accommodate light manufacturing and warehousing industries who use Canadian Pacific Rail services. Rail usage is encouraged but is not a requirement for occupancy. The park has been developed by Marathon Realty (whose parent company is the Canadian Pacific Railroad) and primarly offers land and buildings for lease. Proposed plans for development in Strathcona Industrial Park are reviewed by the developer on an individual basis and submitted to the City for approval of the development in the normal manner.
There are many industries such as those requiring spaces for outdoor storage, engaged in heavy manufacturing, or generating waste materials, which unavoidably present a poor appearance. It is therefore important to provide a variety of types of industrial areas in the City, with unattractive areas well-buffered from surrounding land uses.
In addition, it is important to plan
access routes to industrial areas with care to ensure that heavy industrial traffic does not adversely affect residential areas.
Planning for industrial areas is undertaken in a series of stages by the City Planning Department. The first step is the development of an outline plan, or sketch plan, for the industrial area. The outline plan identifies the relationship of the industrial area to the City as a whole, proposed land uses within the area, and roadway corridors, and serves as a framework for
- 48 -
long-range servicing and development of the industrial district. Background studies related to land characteristics and ownership patterns are often undertaken at this stage. Outline plans for the North-West, South and South-East industrial Areas are scheduled for completion by the end of the summer of 1973, by the City Planning Department.
Within the framework of the outline plans, subdivision can proceed. The purpose of subdivisions is to establish legally registered plan for land ownership, conforming with the outline plans and providing title to individual parcels. Subdivision of land is undertaken when the land is owned by a single party; subdivision by replotting scheme is undertaken when areas are fragmented in terms of ownership. Through the replot, ownership boundaries are adjusted so as to provide an efficient plan of subdivision.
If the City owns industrial land in an area where
a replot is needed, the City has in the past initiated the replotting scheme. Otherwise several owners may get together and arrived at a mutually acceptable plan.
In this case, replot
schemes may be extremely slow since they depend upon agreement of all owners to the plan. While it is sometimes possible to exclude an individual property from the replot area, if the uncooperative owners hold land in a strategic location this may be impossible and the replot may be held up until agreement is reached. This usually produces considerable delay. Replots must be authorized and approved by City Council while subdivisions (involving only one owner) require only Municipal Planning Commission approval.
Industrial land planning in Edmonton should meet the changing needs of the City. In the immediate future attention should be directed to the short supply of available, serviced industrial
-49-
land.
In addition, the special needs of large warehousing
and transportation firms and firms requiring large amounts of outdoor storage space should be reviewed.
Finally, the rising
cost of industrial land, especially as related to land servicing costs, should be carefully explored.
These issues are discussed
in more detail in other sections of this report.
F.
Industrial Areas Surrounding Edmonton
The types of industrial development and character of industrial areas are highly varied beyond the City of Edmonton boundaries. Some industries that do not choose to meet urban development or design standards or which require large tracts of unserviced land have located in rural, low-density areas outside the City. Other industries have been attracted to smaller communities for personal and business reasons. Recently there are indications that some industries are being forced out of the City because of the lack of available serviced land.
In respect
to the demand for industrial land created by these different factors, new industrial parks are being planned close to the boundaries of the City. Tables 15 and 16 indicate the basic characteristics and land services available as of January, 1973 in the major industrial areas outside the City.
Figure 6 shows the location of major industrial areas and parks surrounding Edmonton. The three types of areas that predominate are large tracts of land, especially for oil refineries and chemical plants; small industrial areas in towns, and planned industrial parks, both in towns and rural areas.
50-
Many of the large tracts of industrial land outside the City of Edmonton are occupied by natural resource-related industries (such as the oil refineries and chemical plants in the County of Strathcona and Fort Saskatchewan) and by concrete and other nonmetallic mineral products in the County of Parkland and the Town of Wabamun. Another important cluster of large space users includes the steel foundry and metal fabricating plants in the County of Strathcona.
These industries are important to the industrial base of the Edmonton Area both in terms of employment (especially the chemical and steel plants) and in terms of dollars generated in the economy (non-metallic mineral products and oil refineries) These industries have located outside of the City because of the need for large areas of land away from populated areas and the lower cost of land. Often these industries have private septic systems and sometimes special rail lines as well.
A variety of small industrial firms are located in the smaller communities surrounding Edmonton such as Spruce Grove, Leduc, St. Albert and Stony Plain. Often land available in these communities has full water and sanitary services.
In-
dustries have located in small towns for a variety of historic, business and personal reasons. Recently, firms that might have preferred a location within Edmonton boundaries have located in small towns because industrial land at a reasonable price was not available in the City. The recent pressure for industrial land within the Edmonton Region has encouraged the activity of private industrial land developers in these communities.
Table 15 Industrial Areas Surrounding Edmonton: Description January, 1973 This table includes information about the major industrial areas located outside of Edmonton. In addition to these areas, there is industrial development in the Towns of Morinville, Tofield, and Onoway, and undeveloped areas in the surrounding municipalities. The term "park" is used when the land is being developed and marketed by a single owner. This table was developed with the assistance of the Edmonton Area Industrial Development Association, the Edmonton Regional Planning Commission, and area realtors. Name
Location
Type of Industry
Size of Area and Stage of Development
Sherwood Industrial Estates
County of Strathcona, on Sherwood Park Freeway
Light industry and warehousing
190 acres total; development scheduled for Spring, 1973
Nisku International Industrial Park
County of Strathcona, Highway 2, north of Leduc
Medium and heavy industry; especially related to oil activities and airport
300 acres total;some development of 80 acres scheduled for Spring, 1973
International Airport
County of Strathcona, near Leduc
Land for lease only; limited to aviation or related services
100 acres total; some development scheduled for 1973
Town of Leduc
Highway 2, south of Edmonton
Light and medium industry
150 acres under development
Transpark
County of Parkland, west of 170 St., south of 118 Ave. (adjacent City)
Light industry and warehousing; especially transportation-related
160 acres; some development scheduled for Spring, 1973
Voyageur Industrial Park
County of Parkland, northwest of City near 170 St.
Variety of industries which do not need full services; some storage facilities
170 acres sold land available; 20 acres subdivided 59 acres not subdivided
Ui
Table 15, continued
Name
Location
Type of Industry
Size of Area and Stage of Development
West Bonaventure Industrial Park
M.D. of Sturgeon; west of 149 St., south of 132 Ave. (adjacent City)
Light industry and warehousing
160 acres total; some existing development Planning stage for remainder
Sturgeon Industrial Park
M.D. of Sturgeon; west of 149 St. south of 137 Ave. (adjacent City)
Light industry and warehousing
160 acres Planning Stage
Winterburn Industrial Area
County of Parkland; 3 miles west of City, north of Highway 16
Medium and heavy Industry
800 acres zoned; 320 under development
Town of Wabamun
West of Edmonton (adjacent Medium and heavy industry major lake)
300 acres zoned; 160 under development
Town of Stony Plain
West of Edmonton
Melton's Industrial Park: Spruce Grove
Town of Spruce Grove, west Light industry of Edmonton
109 acres total; Planning Stage
Other Industrial Areas in Spruce Grove
Town of Spruce Grove, west Light industry of Edmonton
287 acres total in 3 industrial areas; some under development
Light and medium industry
Partly developed
Toble 16
Industrial Areas Surrounding Edmonton: Services Available January, 1973 The services indicated on this table are either existing or proposed. Whether they are immediately available to industries depends upon the stage of development. This table was developed with the assistance of the Edmonton Area Industrial Development Association, the Edmonton Regional Planning Commission, and area realtors. Sanitary Sewer
Piped Water
Paved Curb & Storm Roads Gutter Sewer
Street Telephone, Gas & Power Lights
Name
Trackage
Sherwood Industrial Estates
yes
not at present time *
yes
yes
yes
special ponding system
yes
yes
Nisku International Industrial Park
yes
not at present time *
yes
no
no
no
yes
yes
International Airport
no
lagoon
yes
yes
no
no
yes
yes
Town of Leduc
yes
yes
yes
yes
some parts
no
yes
yes
Transpark
not at present time *
not at present time *
yes
yes
no
not at present time *
yes
yes
Voyageur Industrial Park
yes
no
private no wells
no
no
yes
no
* These industrial parks would like full City services whenever they become available.
Table 16, continued
Sanitary Sewer
Piped Water
Paved Curb & Storm Roads Gutter Sewer
Telephone, Street Gas & Power Lights
yes
not at present time *
yes
yes,as no needed
not at present time *
yes
eventually
Sturgeon Industrial Park
yes
not at present time *
yes
yes
yes
not at present time *
yes
yes
Winterburn Industrial Area
yes
no
private no wells
no
no
yes
no
Town of Wabamun
yes
some areas
yes
no
no
no
yes
some areas
Town of Stony Plain
yes
some areas
yes
yes
no
no
yes
some areas
Melton's Industrial Park: Spruce Grove
yes
eventually
yes
yes
eveneventually tually
yes
undecided
Other Industrial Areas in Spruce Grove
yes
eventually
yes
no
no
eventually
yes
undecided
Town of St. Albert
yes
yes
yes
yes
some areas
yes
yes
some areas
Fort Saskatchewan Settlement Area
yes
no
yes
no
no
no
yes
no
Fort Saskatchewan
yes
eventually
yes
some areas
no
no
yes
no
County of Strathcona
some areas
private systems
yes
some areas
no
no
yes
no
Name
Trackage
West Bonaventure Industrial Park
1 VI -""
1
Lamont
Fort Saskatchewan St.Albert :1k 1 1 Island National Park
Spruce Wab4mun
Stony Plain
Tot 1( try
es ka (chew iver
Beaumont Nisku
New Sarepta
Calms' Leduc
Thorsby
'Warburg
Legend Major industrial areas and parks * outside the City of Edmonton (existing and proposed) * Other industrial areas
MAJOR INDUSTRIAL PARKS AND AREAS SURROUNDING EDMONTON 1973 (EXISTING AND PROPOSED) Source: Planning Department
Figure 6
-56-
Industrial parks located just outside Edmonton City boundaries are a third type of industrial area. (10) Although sewer and storm services are currently available in these parks, industrial land developers and many industries locating here would prefer fully-serviced land. (11) A number of firms have located in these new parks with the expectation that full services will be available in a short time. These industries are primarily warehousing, transportation, and light manufacturing operations, which can "make do" with septic systems or pump-out tanks over the short run. An exception to this pattern is the Voyageur Industrial Park in the County of Parkland and the Winterburn Industrial Area which are attracting industries that prefer partly-serviced industrial land, such as storage uses and auto yards. The majority of these new industrial parks near Edmonton are only in the planning or development stage, although developers
(10) In the Edmonton Area the term "industrial park" is commonly used to refer to any industrial area developed for industrial use under a single owner and plan. In other communities the term is used in a more restricted sense to apply to planned industrial areas where the types and appearance of industries are controlled. See William N. Kinnard, Jr. and Stephen D. Messner, Industrial Real Estate, Society of Industrial Realtors, Washington, D. C., 1571. (11) Edmonton City Council on March 12, 1973 approved an "Interim Policy Respecting further Extension of Water, Storm, Drainage and Sanitary Sewer Facilities - Edmonton Metropolitan Area" whereby new applicants for City services will be referred to their own local municipality and be advised that "for the interim period until the annexation and amalgamation question is resolved, it will be City policy not to extend additional services to lands outside the City boundaries nor to permit additional applicants to tie into existing lines within the City except in instances where at this date, negotiations between Commissioners and adjoining municipalities were under way which would result in an integral and logical extension o f servicing...." In addition to the question of annexation, this interim policy was approved because "the continued provision of services on an unplanned basis is not in the best interests of the City and the Metropolitan Area".
- 57indicate that some land is already committed to industries. Additional industrial parks of this sort may be expected in the future if industrial land demand remains strong.
There is a more than adequate supply of unserviced industrial land outside the City of Edmonton. A land survey completed by the Edmonton Regional Planning Commission in November, 1972, reports that 13,000 acres of industrial land in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area (outside Towns) are zoned either General Industrial or Agriculture-General Industrial Reserve. (12) Of this total, 6,200 acres of land are already developed. The remaining 6,800 acres of undeveloped land are evenly divided between the NorthWest and South-East Areas.
The number of acres of land zoned for industrial use in the Metropolitan Area most likely exceeds any foreseeable future demand. As a result, it is important to plan for the staging of industrial development and servicing outside the City, so that land is utilized in the most efficient manner. Due to limitations of staff and budget, the Edmonton Regional Planning Commission does not have an ongoing program for industrial planning. This is beginning to create a variety of problems and it is most important that regional planning for industrial development be undertaken immediately to provide direction for development. The character of different industrial areas should be identified, coordinated planning under
(12) Edmonton Regional Planning Commission, Industrial Land Inventory-Metropolitan Area Beyond Edmonton City Limits, November 30, 1972. Nine thousand acres of land are zoned General Industrial and the remaining 4,000 acres are zoned Agriculture-Gneral Industrial Reserve. Sixty-seven percent of the land zoned for industrial use is southwest of the City, and thirty-three percent is located northwest of the City.
-58-
taken utilities and roads, and direction for overall development given. There is also a need for improved coordination between the Regional Planning Commission and the City Planning Department so that adjoining industrial areas are compatible. The economy and land market of the City of Edmonton are inter-connected with the Region as a whole, and it is important that problems be identified and alleviated on a Regional basis. The City of Edmonton and the Edmonton Regional Planning Commission share the responsibility of ensuring that this coordination takes place.
CHAPTER III
FUTURE ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR THE EDMONTON SUB-REGION
A. The Nature of Employment Projections
A projection is an estimate of the future based on certain assumptions. Projections indicate what the future may be; they are not absolute predictions. The accuracy of any projection depends upon the assumptions on which it is based. Although research and information about past trends may provide insights into the future, there is no way of knowing for certain if the future that is expected will actually develop. When used with caution, projections provide a basis for planning by identifying major directions that may be expected. The projection itself is never a substitute for a plan. Projections can and should be altered through public policy and plans.
Change in all aspects of daily life is occurring at an ever-increasing rate, making the task of projecting the future increasingly difficult. Even a ten year time period can yield many unforeseen events, making projections inaccurate.
It is
therefore important to establish a process of continual review and frequently update projection figures.
It is also essential
to completely understand the assumptions on which the projections are based. This is especially important for the Edmonton Sub-
- 60 -
Region because a number of the factors expected to have a dynamic impact on employment are highly uncertain, with important decisions not as yet made. The future of Edmonton is more difficult to project than that of a more stable economy less subject to external forces and decisions.
A variety of techniques for projecting employment were reviewed for this report. Because the Edmonton economy in the future will be affected by a number of major forces in a different manner than in the past, a straight-line projection of past trends or other mathematical methods was considered to be insufficient. Although trends in Metropolitan Edmonton will be influenced by economic trends in Canada as a whole, there is not sufficient information to determine what the precise relationship between the Canadian and Edmonton economies is likely to be in the future. The dynamic and volatile character of the Edmonton economy requires a more detailed review of the major forces affecting the City than the above projection techniques provide. As a result, a non-mathematical method has been used to project employment in Metropolitan Edmonton to 1981. Briefly stated, major forces affecting the Edmonton economy, as well as trends in individual industries (especially those that use industrial land), have been examined. In conjunction with population projections done by the City Planning Department independent of this study, a "reasonable" estimate of future employment trends has been derived.
The purpose of this chapter is to summarize the major forces that are likely to affect employment in the Edmonton Sub-Region in
- 61 the future. These include Northern development, tar sands development, the growth of Western Canadian markets and the opening of the Yellowhead Highway, freight rates, air connections and routes, Federal and Provincial policies, and automation and new technology. The overall character of the post-industrial society, as well as projections of the economies of the Prairie Provinces and Canada as a whole, are included
background information.
Chapter IV presents information about past and future development in individual industries in Edmonton as well as both employment and industrial land demand projections derived from this information.
B. The Emerging Post-Industrial Society
The projections made for employment and land demand in the Edmonton Region extend to the year 1981. During this time, indicators of a post-industrial society are expected to become more apparent.
The post-industrial society, as it is commonly conceived, will be characterized by a high per capita income ($5,000 $50,000 or more per capita per annum); a high proportion of employment in the service sector, especially quaternary activities (services for their own sake, such as recreation, education, the arts, information services, certain government services, etc.); and an increase in time available for certain leisure activities. Although manufacturing will still be important in the economy, it will account for a smaller percent of total employment than it has in the past. (1)
(1) Herman Kahn and B. Bruce Briggs, "The Emerging Post-Industrial Society--Evolutionary and Revolutionary Change," Things to ComeThinking about the 70's and 80's, MacMillan Company, New York, 1972, pp. 220-231.
- 62 -
The post-industrial society will not be an utopian society with a rich abundance of goods and services, since recent problems concerning the use of resources and pollution problems are not likely to disappear. Rather, a new set of "costs" not known to previous generations may become extremely important. Scarcity will not be viewed in physical terms as something to be overcome by production, but in economic terms as measured by rising cost. Daniel Bell has summarized the issue well when he writes: "The question used to be: Are there enough material goods, and how do we produce more? The question now becomes: What are the costs of new kinds of services, and how much are we willing to pay?" (2) Non-economic costs, such as social and environmental costs will probably also rise in importance.
In terms of employment, the post-industrial society which is gradually evolving will be dominated by service-related employment. A continued decline in average hours of work per week and increasing leisure time may also be expected. However, it is unlikely that dramatic reductions in the number of persons working will be seen before the year 2000. (3)
C. Edmonton in Relation to the Economy of Canada
It is anticipated that the economy of Edmonton in the year 1981 will reflect in part the economy of Canada. National forces related to imports and exports, flow of dollars, investment and expenditures, and other factors will have a significant impact.
In the 1960's the main influence in the increase in demand for Canadian goods was the growing buoyancy of the United States
(2) Daniel Bell, "The End of Scarcity?" Saturday Review of Society, May, 1971, pp. 49-52. (3) Ibid., p. 50.
-63economy. (4) Another important factor contributing to increased demand was business and government investment, especially during 1963 and 1966. Since 1966, however, the Canadian and United States economies have been more different than in the past. Rising prices have created major problems in both countries, although the problem has been more severe in the United States. Unemployment, on the other hand, has been a more significant problem in Canada. The Economic Council of Canada estimates that the economy of Canada today is far below its potential, and that increasing income and ability to purchase goods and services are creating an "astonishingly large potential for economic growth and development from now to the mid-1970's, exceeding that of most industrialized countries". (5)
External factors make it difficult to project the economic future of Canada. The future size of the labour force is uncertain due to immigration from other countries, and the economy as a whole is sensitive to fluctuations in international markets, especially in the United States. Despite these problems, the Economic Council of Canada has recently used a computer simulation model of the economy to make economic projections. These projections appear to be reasonable estimates based on the assumption of a favourable external environment and continuing government expenditures. (6) They are also attempts to identify a healthy future economy for Canada that may be used as a goal for government policy and programs. Future economic indicators as projected by the Council are summarized in Table 17.
(4) Economic Council of Canada, Performance and Potential, Mid-1950's to Mid-1970's, September, 1970, p. 12. (5) Economic Council of Canada, Sixth Annual Review: Perspective, 1975, Ottawa, 1969, p. 155. (6) Economic Council of Canada, Ninth Annual Review: The Years to 1980, Ottawa, 1972, p. 35.
-64-
Table 17
Economy of Canada
Growth in Output, Employment, Capital Stock and Real Disposable Income (1960, 1970 and 1980)
(Calculatedin 1961 Dollars)*
Actual 1960-70
Projected 1970-80
(Average annual percentage change) Real gross national product Employment Output per person employed Stock of business capital Business capital stock per employed person Real disposable income Real disposable income per capita.
5.4 3.1 2.3 5.0
5.6 3.1 2.4 5.8
1.8 5.4
2.7 5.7 4.1
3.5
* Except for employment, which was calculated on the basis of number of persons employed. SOURCE: Based on data from Statistics Canada and estimated by Economic Council of Canada. Reported in Economic Council of Canada, The Years to 1980, p. 35.
-65The Economic Council of Canada estimates that the average annual percentage change in real gross national product in Canada will increase from 5.4% in the 1960 to 1570 period to 5.6% in the 1970 to 1980 period. The average annual percentage increase in employment will remain constant at 3.1% although output per person employed is expected to rise slightly.
Employment in ranufacturind is expected to experience an annual average percentage increase of 0.2% in the 1970-1980 period, a significant decrease from the 1960-1570 average annual percentage increase of 2.5%. In 1970 manufacturing employment accounted for 22.7% of total Canadian employment, it is expected that manufacturing will decline to 17.1% of the total in 1580. The reduction in manufacturing employment is expected to be largely the result of increases in productivity which will increase the volume of goods produced without actually increasing employment.
Significant growth in employment is projected for the categories of construction (3.7% average annual percentage increase); finance, insurance and real estate (4.3% average annual percentage increase); wholesale and retail trade (3.0% average annual increase); community, business and personal services
(6.i%
average annual percentage increase); and public administration (3.4% average annual increase. (7) In terms of share of total employment, community, business and personal services is the only category expected to show strong gains, increasing from 25.7% of total employment in 1970 to 34.1 0i of total employment in 1980. These employment figures clearly indicate the growing dominance of the
(7) Economic Council of Canada, The Economy to 1980: Staff Papers, Ottawa, 1972, p. 234, Ibid., p. 62.
-66-
tertiary sector, especially community, business and personal services. (8) Additional statistics on employment, output per man-hour and earning per man-hour for individual Canadian industries are presented in Tables 18 and 19.
Although the distribution of employment among industrial categories is different for Metropolitan Edmonton than for Canada as a whole, the projected decrease in manufacturing employment as a percent of total employment and the projected increase in service employment for Canada are likely to be experienced in Edmonton. The decrease in manufacturing as a percent of total employment, however, is not expected to be as great in Edmonton as for Canada, largely due to the growth of Western Canadian markets.
D. Edmonton in Relation to the Prairie Provinces
The Province of Alberta is distinctly different in character from the other Prairie Provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. As a result, statistics related to the Prairie Provinces as a whole usually do not reflect important trends in Alberta or in Metropolitan Edmonton. According to the 1971 Census of Population, the population of Alberta was 1,627,874, as opposed to 926,242 in Saskatchewan and 988,247 in Manitoba. In the 1961-1969 period, population in Alberta experienced a percentage increase greater than Canada as a whole. The percentage increase of personal income in Alberta between 1961 and 1967 equalled the personal income growth for Canada as a whole. The Provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan
(8) A different set of Canada-wide employment projections were prepared by the Systems Research Group in 1970. The major differences were with manufacturing and construction employment. The systems Research Group Study estimates that manufacturing will comprise 22.4% of total employment in 1981, with construction accounting for 5.9% of the total. Canada 2000 - Economic Systems Research Group Projections to the Year 2000, Toronto, 1970
Table 18 Economy of Canada Growth in Productivity and Wages (1960, 1970 and 1980) Real Domestic Product (1) Employment 1960-70 1970-80 1960-70 1980
Share of Total Employment 1960 1970 1980
(Average annual % change) Agriculture Forestry Fishing Mining, oil and gas Manufacturing Construction Electric, water and gas utilities Transportation, storage and communications Wholesale and retail trade Finance; insurance and real estate Community, business and personal services Public Administration Total Economy
1.2 3.9 1.9 5.8 6.1 5.0 7.6
2.3 5.0 1.9 6.3 5.6 6.5 6.4
-3.1 -1.6 1.1 4.9 2.5 2.7 3.0
6.3 5.5 5.1
5.7 5.3 5.5
6.6 2.8 5.4
(percent)
-2.1 1.2 --(2) 2.1 0.2 3.7 -0.8
11.4 1.6 0.3 1.6 23.8 6.5 1.2
6.5 0.9 0.3 1.6 22.7 6.0 1.1
2.2 2.9 5.0
2.0 3.0 4.3
8.4 17.1 3.8
7.7
7.1
16.8 4.6
16.5 4.9
6.2 2.7
6.4 3.8
6.1 3.4
18.6 5.8
25.7 6.2
34.1 6.5
5.5
3.1
3.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
(1) Calculated in 1961 dollars (2) The numbers here are too low to form a basis for reliable projections. (3) Includes the value of inputed rent and owner-occupied dwellings, not shown separately. SOURCE: Based on data from Statistics Canada and Estimates by Economic Council of Canada. Reported in Economic Council of Canada, The Years to 1980, p. 62.
4.1 0.8 --(2) 1.5 17.1 6.3 0.8
Table 19 Economy of Canada Output and Employment Changes and Distribution of Employment by Industry Group (1960, 1970 and 1980)
Output per Man-Hour 1960-70 1970-80
Earnings per Man-Hour 1960-70 1970-80
(Average annual percentage change) Agriculture Forestry Mines, quarries and oil wells Manufacturing Construction Utilities Transportation, storage, and communication Wholesale and retail trade Finance, insurance,and real estate (1) Community, business, and personal services (2) Public administration and defense
4.9 6.6 .7 4.0 2.8 4.4 4.9 3.5 .5 1.2 0
5.0 5.3 3.9 5.6 2.8 7.8 4.6 3.5 1.7 1.5 0
7.6 6.7 2.8 6.5 8.1 5.7 7.5 6.2 6.2 7.2 6.0
7.3 3.7 5.4 6.3 7.5 7.0 7.1 5.6 6.7 5.9 5.2
Total (3)
3.2
3.4
7.1
6.3
(1) Excluding the output of housing, for which there is no employment counterpart, (2) For description of this sector, see footnote (3) of Table 7-2. (3) The total includes housing output. For total productivity measures, see also Table 7-5. SOURCE: Based on data from Statistics Canada and projections by the Econo.dic Council of Canada for the 1972 Annual Review (Chapter 4). Reported in Economic Council of Canada, The Economy to 1980: Staff Papers, p. 234.
69
were lower than the Canada percentage increase for both population and personal income growth in these periods. (9)
A recent study for the Federal Department of Regional Economic Expansion, Opportunities for Manufacturing: Prairie Region to 1981, has estimated future growth potentials of Prairie Province manufacturing industries. (10) Although the overall manufacturing trends are unlikely to apply directly to Alberta and Edmonton, they provide some useful insights, especially for those industries dominant in Edmonton.
The employment projections are arranged in several classes. Class 1 includes industries that are expected to develop on the basis of existing growth forces, while Class 2 includes industries where future development is restricted by problems which may be solved through governmental policy. (11) The employment projections for Class 1 and Class 2 are indicated on Tables 20 and 21. Of special significance for Edmonton is the high expected growth in metal fabricating and furniture and fixtures. The large numbers of industries in Class 2 where employment increases are dependent on policy changes is indicative of forces operating in Metropolitan Edmonton. Specific policy problems are reviewed in another section of this chapter.
Overall, these projections indicate the continued importance of manufacturing related to the natural resource base, such as the industries of food and beverage and non-metallic mineral products. Major potential also exists in certain manufacturing activities currently strong in the Prairies, such as metal fabricating,
(9) Statistics from Hedlin Menzies and Associates, Ltd., Opportunities for Manufacturing: Prairie Region to 1981, prepared for the Department of Regional Economic Expansion, Government of Canada, October, 1971. (10) Hedlin Menzies and Associates, Ltd., Op. Cit. (11) Class 3 industries which have no growth potential are also identified in the research report. They are not listed here because they are not dominant in Edmonton.
- 70 Table 20 Projected Prairie Province Employment Class 1 Employment, 1967 and Employment Growth Prospects, 1971-1981 (Employment Increases Resulting from Existing Growth Forces) Estimated Employment - 1967
Anticipated Growth
Industry Group
Class 1
% Total
1971 - 1981
Food and Beverage Tobacco Products Rubber Leather Textile Knitting Mills Clothing Wood Furniture & Fixtures Paper and Allied Printing, Publishing & Allied Primary Metals Metal Fabricating Machinery Transportation Equipment Electrical Products Non-metallic Mineral Petroleum and Coal Prod. Chemicals and Chemical Products Miscellaneous Mfg.
16,297
1,300 - 2,100
x 287 7,170
51.6 x 34.3 -
95.4
3,050 - 4,500
1,200
32.0 e
9,013 1,000 10,530 1,700 2,500 1,400 3,600 2,080
100.0 17.5 e 90.6 29.1 38.9 52.1 59.5 90.3
1,844 2,000
47.8 x
300 500 1,500 - 2,000
All Prairie Manufacturing
60,621
52.9
18,450 -28,100
600 150 -
200 1,200 300 4,700 500 1,950 700 1,850 150
X = Confidential - = Nil e = Estimate SOURCE: Hedlin Menzies and Associates, Ltd., Opportunities for Manufacturing: pt.-41_0e Reqian,to 1981. p. 220.
-
700 400
300 1,500 400 7,650 1,000 3,300 1,000 2,500 250
-71
Table 21 Projected Prairie Province Employment Class 2 Employment, 1967 and Employment Growth Prospects, 1971-1981 (Employment Increases Limited by Problems Which May By Government Policy) Estimated Employment, 1967 Class 2
% Total
Solved
Growth Prospect 1971-1981 Possible Anticipated(a) Additional(b)
Industry Group 13,600 Food & Beverage Tobacco Products Rubber 450 Leather x Textile Knitting Mills 8,200 Clothing Wood 3,100 Furn. & Fixtures 1,800 Paper & Allied Printing, Publishing & Allied 4,200 Primary Metals Metal Fabricating 2,847 Machinery 3,500 Trans. Equipment Electrical Products 870 Non-metallic Minerals Petroleum & Coal Products Chemicals and Chemical 900 Products Miscellaneous Mfg. Al] Prairie Mfg.
39,467
43.0 53.8 x
97.3 48.0 e
1,8C0 - 3,050 200 100 100 0 -1,000-+3,000 800 - 1,200 850 - 1,500
73.5 e 48.8 54.5 14.4
800 - 1,300 1,000 - 3,000 -1,000 -+1,000 200 300
94.8
-
500 0 150 0 0 0 -
7,350
600 200 7,000 3,000 4,800
500 - 3,000 0 - 3,000 -200 -+2,200 400 600
-
-
23.3 -
500 - 1,000 -
150 - 1,300 -
34.5
4,100 -15,300
1,500 -'33,050
(a) Projected trends, assuming obstacles continue (b) Possible additional growth if existing obstacles removed x = Confidential - = Nil e = Estimate SOURCE: Hedlin Menzies and Associates, Ltd., Opportunities for Manufacturing: Prairie Region to 198f, p. 227
- 72-
transportation equipment, and printing and publishing. Growth of Prairie Province markets alone, without penetration of nonPrairie markets, is not expected to stimulate a great deal of manufacturing activity. (12)
E. Northern Development
The term Northern Development refers to the exploration, production and transport of oil, gas and mineral resources and the resulting population growth and economic development in the Northwest Territories (including the Arctic Islands) and Yukon Territory. Although the 1971 population of the Yukon and Northwest Territories combined was only 53,195 persons, the area contains 1.5 million square miles, or nearly forty percent of the total land area of Canada. The vast resources of the North have only recently been appreciated. If major issues relating to native Indian rights and environmental problems can be resolved, future development of the North may be significant, with economic spinoffs to Edmonton businesses. The type of Northern development that will occur, however, is extremely uncertain at the moment.
A variety of natural resources are important in the North. Current mineral production in the Northwest Territories and the Yukon is largely a result of lead and zinc mines (75% of the total value of mineral production) and gold and silver mines (20% of the total value of mineral production). The value of minerals produced in the Northwest Territories and Yukon combined has risen dramatically from $30.3 million in 1963 to
(12) Hedlin Menzies and Associates, Ltd., Op. Cit., pp. iii-vii. Population projections for the Prairie Provinces in 1981 range from 3,842,000 persons to 4,129,000 persons.
- 73 nearly $200 million in 1970. (13) Energy resources are also important in the North, especially gas reserves. In the past several years, gas fields have been discovered on the Arctic Islands of Ellef Ringness, King Christian and Thor, which together could provide more than half of the gas volume required to justify a gas pipeline from Eastern areas of the Northwest Territories to Montreal or Niagara Falls.
in 1972 and 1973,
major gas reserves have also been discovered in Western areas of the Northwest Territories, including the MacKenzie Delta, the Beaufort Sea and Melville Island. These discoveries contribute to the feasibility of a MacKenzie Valley gas pipeline. A MacKenzie Valley gas pipeline, especially, would offer some opportunities to Edmonton businessmen, since Edmonton would most likely be a major supply and service centre.
Whether discoveries in the North will lead to economic development depends upon whether, when and where oil and gas pipelines (or alternative transportation connections) are constructed, The present situation is extremely uncertain, with many problems still to be resolved, especially native rights, pipeline ownership and control, environmental impact and total economic benefit to Canada. The alternative of a railroad to transport natural resources is also being considered. Another uncertainty results from the fact that the feasibility of the MacKenzie Valley gas pipeline is directly linked to the construction of an oil pipeline from Alaska (a prerequisite for the gas production in Alaska). Recent legal problems and environmental concerns in the United States have caused delays on the Alaska line.
(13) Statistics reported in "Report on the North", City of Edmonton, Business Development Department, July, 1972.
Spinoffs to Edmonton firms resulting from a MacKenzie Valley gas pipeline would be primarily related to the construction, metal fabricating, transportation equipment, machinery, warehousing and transportation industries. Because the pipeline would be a one-time project, it is unlikely that many firms would locate in Alberta simply to provide materials or service the pipeline.
In
fact, the magnitude of the project will create a demand for goods manufactured in other countries.
It is estimated, for example,
that a MacKenzie Valley gas pipeline would require six to eight million tons of steel, more than one-half Canada's total annual production. (14) Nevertheless, Edmonton firms can be expected to expand their production to meet the demand created by the pipeline. Because the pipeline operations would be largely automated when completed, permanent employment and population growth generated by the pipeline would be minimal.
Instead,
the pipeline would create a strong demand for transportation, warehousing and metal fabricating services during the period of construction.
If a railroad instead of a pipeline is con-
structed in the far North, long-term economic benefits to both Northern regions and Edmonton businesses would probably be greater.
The completion of the MacKenzie Valley Highway north to lnuvik in the Northwest Territories will yield long-term economic benefits for Edmonton. The Highway has been constructed from the Peace River in Northern Alberta as far as Fort Simpson in the Northwest Territories. Early in 1973 construction was halted, pending the examination of a railway as an alternative to both the
(14) Although gas resources in Canada's far North appear more significant than oil resources, it is interesting to note that oil industry expenditures for exploration in the Northwest Territories and Arctic have increased from $14.2 million in 1963 to $210.0 million in 1973. See "Annual Review and Forecast Issue," Oilweek, Vol. 24, No. 1. February 19, 1973, p. 28.
-75-
pipeline and the highway. This is another illustration of the uncertainty concerning the future of the North.
People living in the North provide additional markets to some Edmonton businesses. The number of firms completely dependent upon business from the North, however, is relatively few. A 1969 survey of 141 businesses in Edmonton that do business in the North reflects the extent of business involvement: 1.
Of the firms surveyed, approximately fifty percent reported that less than ten percent of their business income resulted from Northern trade;
2.
Approximately thirty percent of the firms indicated that between ten and fifty percent of their business resulted from the North;
3.
About ten percent reported that more than seventy percent of their business was from Northern trade. (15)
Northern trade is important to some Edmonton businesses, but very important only to a small number of firms.
As shown on Figure 7, Edmonton is an excellent geographical location for serving the North. This is enhanced by good road, rail, air and water transportation distribution systems. For roads, the Alaska Highway links Edmonton with Northern British Columbia and the Yukon, and the MacKenzie Highway provides road connections to Hay River, Pine Point, Yellowknife and Fort Simpson.
(15) Bill Latsch and Don Gill, "Edmonton and the North - An Appraisal of Commercial Linkages, "Alberta Business Journal," July - August, 1971, pp. 36-38. The 141 firms contacted were among 184 Edmonton-based establishments (both commercial and industrial) listed in the Northwest Territories Telephone Directory. The 1973 Northwest Territories Telephone Directory lists approximately three hundred Edmonton Firms, a sizable increase from 1969.
I
BANKS ISLAND BAFFIN ISLAND
VICTORIA ISLAND / .4>lp c ooe
*Ca bridge Bay
Ig„ *Whitehorse
Skagway
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
Ig
Yellowknife
Fort
*Simpson
.•
*Hay River
( Ca
Lake
Peace
Prince Rupert *•'
ALBERTA 4, Peace P" River
MANITOB A,
I SASKATCHEWAN Fort *McMurray
00
EDMONTON
River ,syk
sass'c pec:
,Saskatoon
7' • *Calgary
Regina IAIGIN4C‘‘‘ ........... '• ................
Source: Planning Department
W nnipg
WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTH MAJOR TRANSPORTATION ROUTES 1973 Figure 7
-77-
The MacKenzie River water route, linking Pine Point and Hay River to Inuvik, is another important transportation connection. Goods from Edmonton may be transported to the barges either via the MacKenzie Highway, or via the Northern Alberta Railway to the Town of Fort McMurray and then by water route to the MacKenzie River. The MacKenzie River barges provide an efficient method of transporting heavy materials to the North, although the barges only operate during summer months.
Edmonton is also accessible to the North by Air. Air transportation is especially important for the transport of employees to and from exploration and production sites, as well as for the transport of emergency goods and perishable freight. The locational advantage of Edmonton is illustrated by the recent decisions of two major oil firms to fly their jet airplanes north from Edmonton's International Airport rather than Calgary. The primary reasons for the changes are time and cost. A large Electra Jet may cost as much as $800 per hour to operate; an Edmonton base reduces flying and loading time by 1-1 /2 hours each way. (16)
Despite its locational advantages, Edmonton will most likely have to share the economic benefits of Northern development with other Canadian cities. Vancouver, especially, provides alternative transportation routes that are competitive. Currently goods travel from Vancouver by water to Skagway, Alaska, by rail from Skagway to Whitehorse, Yukon, and then by air by Inuvik and other Northern centres. The completion of the Dempster Highway from Whitehorse to Inuvik will make Vancouver extremely
(16)
Interview with Mr. W. Dingle, Production Manager, Imperial Oil Company, February 20, 1973.
competitive, since it will provide a complete year-round transportation route. For heavy bulk goods, the all-sea route around Alaska is an alternative, although ice prevents shipping during most of the year. By air, the distance from Vancouver to lnuvik is 1,211 miles, as opposed to 1,072 miles from Edmonton to Inuvik. In addition to competition from Vancouver, some goods are flown to the North from Toronto, Winnipeg and other major centres. Once a year, a convoy of ships leaves Montreal for the Eastern Arctic Islands, providing another alternative.
Northern development is a "bonus" for most Edmonton firms. Because of the uncertainties concerning the future of the North, it is perhaps desirable that Edmonton's future not be dependent on this factor alone. Nevertheless, the possibility of Northern development does offer opportunities to Edmonton firms, especially those related to construction, transportation, warehousing and metal fabricating. It is too early to determine whether these opportunities will be realized.
F. Athabasca Tar Sands
The Athabasca tar sands, are major deposits of heavy oil impregnated sands, covering over 30,000 square miles in Northeastern Alberta. These sands outcrop along the Athabasca River in the vicinity of Fort McMurray, but are located up to 2,000 feet under the surface of the earth in other areas of the deposit. Although all are relatively deep, similar accumulations of heavy oil are also found in the Peace River,
-
79 -
Wabasca and Cold Lake areas of Alberta. (17) The oil contained in the sands is difficult to extract since it will not flow unless heat is applied. When extracted, the "synthetic" crude oil forms a good refinery feedstock and could provide the basis for the manufacture of a variety of petrochemical products as well. Currently, synthetic crude commands a price approximately ten percent above the price of conventional crude oil. Sulphur and coke are major byproducts; other important by-product possibilities include titanium, iron, zirconium and vanadium. (18)
According to the Alberta Energy Resources Conservation Board, the ultimate remaining recoverable reserves of synthetic crude oil amount to 250 billion barrels. The remaining proved reserves of synthetic crude recoverable through in situ methods amount to 26.5 billion barrels, or a little more than ten percent of the ultimate remaining reserves. The ultimate recoverable synthetic crude oil reserves in the oil sands are approximate to the total recoverable oil reserves in the Middle East. (19)
The economies of oil production from the tar sands are borderline at the present time. The great Canadian Oil Sands Limited recovery plant, situated twenty miles north of Fort McMurray, began production in 1967 but has only recently approached a break-even operation despite government subsidies. (20) Syncrude Canada Limited has received approval from the Government of Alberta to construct a second plant near Fort McMurray which would begin
(17f Alberta Bureau of Statistics, Industry and Resources, 1973, Edmonton, Alberta, January, 1973, p.74. (18) Interview with Mr. F. Spragins, President, Syncrude Canada Ltd., February 19, 1973, and communication dated May 29, 1973, and letter from R. Wood, Purchasing Agent, Great Canadian Oil Sands Ltd., June
14, 1973. (19) Board (20) Sands
Interview with Mr. N. Berkowitz, Energy Resources Conservation Member, June 1, 1973. Letter from Mr. R. Wood, Purchasing Agent, Great Canadian Oil Ltd., June 14, 1973.
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production in 1977. Whether Syncrude will proceed depends upon governmental policies regarding royalties, the cost of labour and the price of oil on the international market. The Syncrude decision, expected by August, 1973, will be a major indicator of the viability of the tar sands development in the next ten years. In addition to Syncrude, other companies have expressed interest in mining the tar sands. Persons knowledgeable about oil resources in Alberta indicate that the question is not whether the tar sands will be developed, but when. In view of the current price trends, other demands on investment capital, and the available pool of skilled labour, experts estimate that two additional tar sands plants could be under construction before 1981.
The impact of tar sands development on the Edmonton economy will be a major force on the Edmonton economy in the next ten to thirty years. Although the total magnitude of the impact cannot be determined since the number of plants that will be constructed is not known, information about individual plants provides insights concerning the types of industries that will be affected and potential problems and opportunities for the Edmonton area.
It is estimated that the construction of a single plant will require four to five years time, more than $700 million, and the labour of 2,000 - 3,000 persons. (21) By 1980, the cost per plant may rise to one billion dollars. The mineable portion of the oil sands could provide room for as many as fifty permanent plants of the size proposed by Syncrude Canada. Each plant will directly create 1,100 new jobs in Alberta and anywhere from 3,000 to 7,900 additional permanent jobs indirectly. Each tar sands plant will require a large, on-site power plant which will produce steam and
(21) Interview with Mr. F. Spragins, President, Syncrude Canada Ltd., and Mr. N. Berkowitz, Energy Resources Conservation Board.
-81 -
treated water for use in tar sands extractions, as well as electricity. Tar sands plant construction will also create a need for additional pipelines to handle the oil produced. (22) In addition to creating a demand for materials and labour, the development of the tar sands will directly increase the population living in the vicinity of Fort McMurray.
It is estimated
that 8,000 - 10,000 permanent residents will move to the Fort McMurray area each time a major plant is built, stimulating an additional $75-$100 million investment in urban development. The increased population will in turn increase demand in the Edmonton area for domestic goods and services. (23)
Both the construction and the production phases of tar sands extraction will directly affect Edmonton. Edmonton will be a major supplier of construction materials, replacement parts, and perishable goods, as well as a distribution centre for other materials. The pattern for the supply of goods in the next ten years is illustrated by the current Great Canadian Oil Sands operation; approximately ninety to ninety-five percent of all the materials required by GCOS are obtained in Edmonton. Materials not available from Edmonton manufacturers include conveyor belting (Eastern Canada, U. S., Japan and Germany), bucket wheel excavators and parts (Germany and U. S.) and large trucks (Eastern Canada and the U.S.). (24) The eleven storey tall bucket wheel excavators alone cost approximately $3 million each. The total estimated expenditures for the calendar year 1972 by GCOS was (22) E. J. Hanson, "Potential Economic Impact of the Syncrude Project on the Alberta Economy", 1971. Cost estimates for a single power plant range from $15-20 million to $50-100 million. Pipeline costs per plant could be as high as $30-40 million. Although costs are not known for certain, the scale of tar sands development is clearly indicated by these cost estimates. (23) Interview with Mr. F. Spragins, President, Syncrude Canada, Ltd., Op. Cit. See also E. J. Hanson, "Potential Economic impact of Syncrude Project on the Alberta Economy," 1971. (24) Telephone conversation with Mr. Wood, Purchasing Agent, Great Canadian Oil Sands Ltd., Fort McMurray, March 16, 1973 and letter dated June 14, 1973.
82 -
in excess of $15 million. (25)
The additional construction of tar sands recovery plants will create a very large demand for certain goods and services Because the Fort McMurray area is the only tar sands production area in Canada, firms wishing to serve this market are likely to locate either in the Edmonton region or directly in Fort McMurray. In addition to the types of industries currently in Edmonton, it is conceivable that an entirely new type of service industry could be created to service the tar sands, since techniques and materials used on conventional oil operations cannot be directly applied to tar sands operations. (26) Certain special alloy steels are needed to withstand the abrasions of the sands, but the type of special foundry needed to fabricate these alloys is not currently available anywhere in Canada.
Special skills in working with
these metals and the special equipment will also be needed. The great quantities of chemicals produced elsewhere and distributed to Fort McMurray by Edmonton area firms, especially special catalysts, offer another possible growth area.
Whether additional processing of tar sands oil will occur in Alberta before oil is transported out of the Province by pipeline will depend upon transportation costs, markets, government policy, and other factors. Although synthetic crude oil is more amenable to petro-chemical production than conventional crude, petrol-chemical plants must be large-scale to be profitable in today's market. Although the future is extremely uncertain, moderate expansion of the petro-chemical industry in the Edmonton SubRegion is projected.
(25) Letter from Mr. W. M. Penhale, Manager, Materials Department, Great Canadian Oil Sands Ltd., Fort McMurray, March 6th, 1573. (26) Interview with Mr. F. Spragins, Op. Cit.
-83-
The impact of the tar sands on Edmonton will be dramatic, although the precise effects cannot be determined from available information. The direct effect on Edmonton, especially increased demands for consumer and business services, construction services, primary metals, metal fabricating, machinery, warehousing and transportation are expected to be strong. Substantial economic development will probably occur near the mining sites of the tar sands as well.
It is extremely important that Edmonton
recognize the potential impact of tar sand development and plan for the future demand on all types of urban land.
G. Western Canadian Markets
The population growth in Western Canada, especially in Alberta and British Columbia, has increased the market for manufactured goods. There are strong indications that the population of Western Canada has reached a point where it is profitable for many different types of firms to establish either manufacturing or warehouse operations to serve Western markets. The recent opening of the Yellowhead Interprovincial Highway has accentuated the advantage of a location in Edmonton for firms wishing to serve Western markets.
Proximity to markets is a major factor influencing the location decisions of firms in Edmonton and the Prairie Provinces. According to a 1969 survey, proximity to market was a factor analyzed by sixty-five percent of new manufacturing firms locating in the Prairie Provinces. (27)
(See Figure 8)
For firms serving
Western markets, Edmonton offers an excellent location: close to the major centres of Edmonton and Calgary, yet with good connections to British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba via the Yellowhead Highway.
(27) The Urban Research Group, Decision Making in Plant Site Location, Saskatoon, September, 1970.
COMMUNITY FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO
FINAL INDUSTRIAL
SITE SELECTION
ONTARIO
CANADA Access to Raw Materials Labour Supply and Quality Access to Advanced Technology Power (Electricity, Gas, Etc.) Transportation Facilities
Access to Raw Materials 11•111111111111M111
IMIMOMIMIMIMMOIM
Labour Supply and Quality
MIMOMMINEMMEMONIMOMOMMOOMOMOIll
Access to Advanced Technology
mg.
Power (Electricity, Gas, Etc.)
MISOMIMMOMMOVEMOBM
0111011111111111111111MUMINIIIIIIIIMIEN1111 11111MINIIN ii111111011111MMIII
Transportation Facilities
MIMINBOOMBOMMEMOMMOMI
Proximity to Market
MOMOMOMONOMMOMMOMOOOMMMOIOI
Proximity to Market
Community Amenities
IllmomOln
Community Amenities
IN111111111•11
Government Policies
INIMMMSBIE
Government Policies
11111111111111MMII
Absence of Local Competition Municipal Tax Structure Municipal Services Land Costs Construction Costs Incentives Support Services and Industries Size of Community
Absence of Local Competition
MIMONOI
Municipal Tax Structure
XIMMISMOMO
Municipal Services
MOMOMMI
Land Costs
mommommommommt
Construction Costs
MEMOMBSOM
Incentives
NIMEMBOOBMI
60
Size of Community
259b
50%
75%
25% 71% t00% 50% o% inesmapsimmia‘monempumi, 25% 50% 0% 75% i00%
100%
' ENUIMMI,111MMONINTIMEMM:MMMININI 2596
50%
Access to Raw Materials Labour Supply and Quality
75%
100%
PRAIRIES
Access to Raw Materials 1=1111•11•111111111MININIMI NIMOMMONOMMOOMMEMMOMMOIMI
Access to Advanced Technology Power (Electricity, Gas, Etc.)
Labour Supply and Quality Access to Advanced Technology
mmosommommommillommi
Transportation Facilities
Power (Electricity, Gas, Etc.) Transportation Facilities
Proximity to Market
mommommimmomemomm
Proximity to Market
Community Amenities
MIMOMMEMM
Community Amenities
Government Policies
MOOMMOMOMMOOM
Government Policies
Absence of Local Competition Municipal Tax Structure Municipal Services Land Costs Construction Costs
MINIM IIIMM111111
Support Services and Industries
MEN IMOMMOMMIMOMI
BRITISH COLUMBIA
MEME1111111111110111111
11111M MEIN
Absence of Local Competition Municipal Tax Structure
•
Municipal Services
MOMIMIIMBOBMI
Land Costs
MIME
Incentives
MIN
Support Services and Industries
NM
IMINIIII
Construction Costs Incentives Support Services and Industries
Size of Community MINIMUM
Source: The Urban Research Group, Decision Making In Plant Site Location, 1970 pp.31-34
1U11111MMEll
Size of Community
Figure
8
-85
The locations where firms are likely to settle to serve Prairie or Western Canadian Markets are reflected in the 1971 Census of Population figures from Statistics Canada:
Metropolitan Areas in Western Canada Winnipeg: Regina: Saskatoon: Calgary: Edmonton: Vancouver:
540,262 140,734 126,319 403,319 495,700 1,082,352
Western Canadian Provinces Manitoba: Saskatchewan: Alberta: British Columbia:
988,247 926,242 1,627,874 2,184,621
The population of Alberta is only 300,000 less than the combined population of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and the three Prairie Provinces together have a population larger than British Columbia. Because of the large population centred in British Columbia, Vancouver is attractive to firms serving all of Western Canada as well. To serve markets in the Prairie Provinces only, Edmonton or Calgary are logical choices for firms.
Another important factor encouraging firms to locate in Edmonton to serve markets throughout Western Canada is the Yellowhead Highway. The Yellowhead Route links Edmonton with Saskatoon and Winnipeg to the east and with Vancouver and the port of Prince Rupert to the west. (28) There are a number of advantages to the
(28) The advantage of easy access to the Port of Prince Rupert is expected to grow in importance in the future. According to announcements in September, 1972, the National Harbours Board plans to develop a $15 million general purpose terminal at Prince Rupert. Trade with Japan and other Pacific rim countries is also growing in importance.
86-
Yellowhead Highway through the Yellowhead Pass in the Rocky Mountains as compared to the Trans-Canada Highway through Calgary and the Kickinghorse Pass further south; namely lower elevation (3,675 feet elevation at the highest point), fewer changes in elevation and lower snowfall. (29) Despite the additional 109 miles on the Yellowhead from Edmonton to Vancouver as compared with the Trans-Canada Highway through Calgary, the Yellowhead Route may save as much as three hours in trucking time. Because the Yellowhead Route was only officially opened on August 15, 1970, the route is not well known in Eastern Canada and the United States. The natural characteristics of the Highway are advantageous to business, however, and it is expected to be a factor influencing Edmonton's future industrial development.
The importance of Western Canadian markets is reflected in the markets served by the 136 warehousing firms and 61 manufacturing firms that were located in Edmonton in 1972:
Alberta market: Western Canada market: Headquarters serving all of Canada:
20.4%
23.4% 16.2%
Whether a firm establishes an operation in Western Canada and what location is selected will vary with the type of industry and particular firm in question.
Because there are alternative
choices for firms it is important that Edmonton make firms aware of opportunities in Edmonton, and that an adequate supply
(29) City of Edmonton Business Development Department, "Comparison Trans-Canada and Yellowhead Interprovincial Highway from Winnipeg to Vancouver," March, 1973.
-87-
of serviced industrial land be continually maintained. Overall, the growth of Western Canadian markets is expected to be one of the important forces encouraging a diversity of manufacturing activity as well as warehousing and transportation industries.
H. Railroad Frei9ht Rates
The general importance of railway transportation for industry has diminished in the past decade. (30)
It is a common
pattern for industries today to utilize a variety of transportation modes, such as truck and air, or truck and rail. Recognizing this, the railroads offer a variety of services to industries including "containers" for shipping goods abroad (the container may be transferred from truck to train to ship), and "piggy-back" units for transport in Canada (the trailer portion of the truck is transported either by truck or on the flatbed of a railcar).
Nevertheless, rail transportation to industries is generally more important to cities in the Prairie Provinces than in the Eastern Provinces because of the necessity of long distance hauls.
(31) Because railway freight rates are often based on
"what the market will bear," it is believed that freight rates are unfairly high in Alberta. For some iron and steel products and food products from the East, for example, rates to Alberta are based on the rate to Vancouver plus a backhaul rate to Alberta,
(30) Interview with Mr. J. Telford, Director, Transport Research and Development Division, Department of Industry and Tourism, April 12, 1973. (31) Hedlin Menzies and Associates, Ltd., Op. Cit., p. 141.
-88-
regardless of the actual route travelled by the train. (32) Although the railways indicate that these rates are required to meet market competition from off-shore sources of material, the end result is apparent rate inequities for Prairie producers. Types of goods most strongly affected by freight rates include petro-chemical products not suitable for pipeline transport (certain chemicals and plastics), agricultural products, forest products, furniture and iron and steel products. (33) Whether a particular firm is severely affected by the freight rates depends upon the nature of the product and the location of raw materials and final markets.
The inequities of freight rates in the Prairie Provinces have long been recognized by the Province of Alberta as a severe problem. At the Conference on Western Canadian Economic Opportunities held in July 1973, freight rate problems were reviewed.
It is possible that the Conference will result in
major changes in rail transportation rates.
The use of large unit trains, i.e., trains with one hundred cars loaded at a single point, may reduce freight rates on some goods without the necessity of governmental action. Unit trains allow for freight rates as low as one-half cent per ton mile. Despite the fact that the six unit trains now operating in Western Canada are fully-loaded in one direction only, they reduce the time and cost of rail transport. Whether the volume generated by Prairie industries in the future will be sufficient to justify extensive use of unit trains is unknown.
If opportunities for backhaul of goods
from the East to the West are utilized, other economic spinoffs are possible.
(32) Hedlin Menzies and Associates, Ltd., Op. Cit., p. 141. (33) Interview with Mr. J. Telford, Op. Cit.
The possible impact of reduced freight rates and increased use of unit trains in Alberta and Edmonton requires careful research and review by transportation experts. The potential danger is that changes in freight costs will jeopardize markets of local firms. With some care, however, changes may be made which are of benefit to local industries. The City of Edmonton should encourage the Province of Alberta to continue its research program in this important problem.
1. Air Transportation Routes and Connections
Air transportation routes and connection points pose special problems for Edmonton industries. Because air transport is growing in importance, especially for international trade, it is extremely important that existing problems be resolved as rapidly as possible.
One current problem is the lack of direct air routes from Edmonton to the United States. The lack of direct routes puts Edmonton at a disadvantage when compared with the City of Calgary, where direct air flights connect to Denver, Great Falls, Spokane, and Seattle. Both Edmonton and Calgary, however, are at a disadvantage when compared with Winnipeg. (34) Changes in air routes are currently being negotiated with bilateral talks between the governments of Canada and the United States. One indication of change in the future is the application made by Northwest Orient Airlines for reinstatement of landing rights in Edmonton for their Chicago-MinneapolisSt. Paul to Anchorage, Alaska flight. Because direct passenger air connections influence businesses that are currently in
(34) Dixon Speas, Air Study, Volume 11, "The Quality of Air Service to Edmonton."
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Edmonton as well as potential future business, strong efforts should be made by the City to obtain direct air connections with the United States.
Another problem affecting air connections in Edmonton is the division of functions between the Industrial and International Airports. The Industrial Airport serves a variety of functions, including general aviation, commercial air service to the North and nearby points, and is the centre for the Airbus shuttle service to Calgary and other Alberta Centres. Located approximately one mile from the downtown, the Industrial Airport offers convenience and easy access to businesses utilizing air service. The International Airport, on the other hand, receives passenger and cargo flights from major cities in Canada.
Because fully-loaded Electra aircraft in
some instances require longer runways than are currently available at the Industrial Airport, several major oil companies fly goods and employees to the far North from the International Airport.
Limited airbus service is also
currently available at the International Airport.
As a result of the location of different types of flights in Edmonton, the City loses passenger traffic to Calgary. A person flying from the North to Toronto will often arrive at the Industrial Airport in Edmonton, take the airbus to Calgary, and take an Eastern flight from Calgary.
In this way he is
able to avoid the time delay of travelling an additional twenty miles to the International Airport in Edmonton and can often make better connections. The presence of the airbus service makes it possible for major airlines to serve Edmonton as well as Calgary from a Calgary location; a clear disadvantage
-91 to Edmonton. Approximately 45,000 passengers a year going to Calgary from Edmonton on the airbus continue their air travel from Calgary. (35)
The airbus service also makes it possible for Calgary businesses to serve Edmonton from Calgary without establishing a branch office. While this also applies to Edmonton businesses wishing to serve CalgAry, flight statistics indicate that the net benefit is to Calgary. For every seven Edmonton businessmen going to Calgary, twelve businessmen travel from Calgary to Edmonton. For many individual firms in Edmonton, however, commercial scheduled flights at the industrial Airport are an important factor in their decision to locate in Edmonton. Some firms have indicated that they would leave Edmonton if the Industrial Airport were closed. (36) More than one hundred businesses in Edmonton use the airport frequently, and an additional seventy-five businesses operate their own business aircraft from the Industrial Airport.
One way of resolving the problem of functions of the two airports, would be to focus all long-distance passenger and cargo flights, including many flights to the far North, at the International Airport while utilizing the Industrial Airport for short-distance travel and peak-hour airbus services. As recommended in a special aviation study, a special satellite airport to handle private aviation would supplement the two existing facilities. (37) (35) Calculations by Mr. L. Marchant, Manager, Industrial Airport, based on statistics from the airport study. (Canadian Air Transportation Administration and the City of Edmonton, Edmonton Area Aviations Systems Master Plan Studies, Vol. l-V111), May 1972. (36) Interview with Mr. L. Marchant, Manager, Edmonton Industrial Airport, February 6, 1573. (37) The Canadian Air Transportation Administration and the City of Edmonton study of Edmonton Area Aviation Systems concluded that the provisions of a satellite airport to supplement the Industrial and International Airports would encourage a balanced aviation system capable of meeting the forecast demand beyond 1990. See Vo. IX, Final Report, p. 98.
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Edmonton City Council at their regular meeting of April 30, 1973, passed airport policies that will to a large extent resolve the problem. The policies adopted include a recommendation that a satellite airport be established immediately, and that a new passenger terminal be constructed at the Industrial Airport. The adopted policy also recognized the importance of airbus service continuing from the Industrial Airport. An additional policy which is undergoing further study would limit the scheduled commercial flights at the Industrial Airport, in effect creating pressure to transfer Northern commercial flights to the International Airport. The adoption of a policy that will have this effect will greatly contribute to efficient air transportation services to Edmonton citizens and businesses.
J. Automation and New Technology
Technological innovation is one of the most important factors responsible for economic growth in Western Industrial society. (39) Although it is difficult to measure the precise effect of technological change on economic growth because of many complex inter-related factors, one study concluded that "advances of knowledge" contributed about 40% of the total increase in average income per person employed during the 1939-1957 period in the United States. (40)
Contrary to common opinion, technology does not lead to a decline in the total number of jobs; rather it redistributes jobs to different industries in the economy.
(41)
In fact,
new technology almost always increases the total number of jobs by creating a demand for new goods and services, and by contributing to rising incomes of the population. The total effect (39) Edwin Mansfield, Technological Change, W. W. Norton and Company, New York, 1971, p. 2. (40) Ibid., p. 3 (41) Ibid., p. 103, and Seymour Wolfbein, Work in American Society, Scott, Foresman and Company, Glenview, 1971, p. 38.
-93has been to redistribute the labour force from the secondary (goods-producing) sector to the tertiary (service-producing sector of the economy. (42) Technology has resulted in increased productivity in secondary industries, making it possible to produce more goods with relatively less labour. A 5.7% average annual increase in output per manhour occurred in goodsproducing industries in Canada during the 1946-1968 period, while service industries on the average experienced only a 1.9% average annual increase in output per manhour see Table 22).
Technological change has also contributed substantially to the reduction of the average work week from sixty hours at the turn of the century to around forty hours at present. (43) This reduction in work hours is reflected in increased holidays, longer vacations, and early retirement, as well as a shorter work day. To date the increase in leisure time has not had a significant effect on total employment, although it has created additional demands for services related to leisure activities. In fact, the long-term effect of a shorter work week may be an increase in total employment. (44) The experiments in the four-day work week that have been undertaken in certain offices in the past several years have focused upon changes in the days and hours worked, rather than the total hours. However, in the 1970's demands by workers for shorter hours at the same pay may occur. While a major concern regarding such a development is its inflationary effect, if unemployment payments were reduced and if production continued to increase, the negative
(42) David P. Ross, "Leisure as a response to Technological Change in the Economic System". In Work and Leisure in Canada, edited by S.M.A. Hameed and D. Cullen, Faculty of Business Administration and Commerce, University of Alberta, 1971, p. 30. (43) Ibid., p. 19. (44) Interview with Prof. S.M.A. Hameed, Department of Business Administration and Commerce, University of Alberta, March 27, 1973, Prof. Hameed has recently completed a Canada-wide survey of firms and the potential impact of the shorter work week.
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Table 22
Annual Percentage Change of Output per Manhour in Commercial GoodsProducing and Commercial Service-Producing Industries
Canada - 1946-1968
Year
1946-47 1947-48 1948-49 I949-5o 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 I959-6o 1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1968-69 Annual Average Change 1946-1968
Goods Producing (Secondary)
6.2% 4.4 1.7 11.2 8.3
9.7 3.9 2.3 14.1 7.4 6.8 7.9 4.1 4.9 3.5 8.6 6.3 5.4 6.5
Service Producing (Tertiary)
0.1% -2.0 1.9
5.9 2.9 2.1
3.3 0.1 6.0 1.3 -2.0 1.5 3.2 1.7 2.5 1.9 2.3
6.4
1.9 0.8 1.6 1.3 3.5
5.7
1.9
6.2 0.2
SOURCE: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Aggregate Productivity Trends, 1946-1968, as reported in David P. Ross, "Leisure as a Response to Technology; Change in the Economic System," "Work and Leisure in Canada," edited by S. M. A. Hameed and D. Cullen, p. 20.
_ 95
effectmight be offset. (45) Future developments of this sort can only be speculative.
The precise nature of the impact of new technology in the future is uncertain, however. Although areas of current research may be generally known, the full impact and side benefits of new technologies are virtually impossible to predict. in the late 1940's, for example, while the computer was recognized as a "major scientific revolution" the full effect on business services was not foreseen. (46) Only the general trend of increasing service employment over goods employment can be stated with any confidence.
K. Federal and Provincial Policies
Provincial and Federal government policies and decisions are expected to have varying degrees of influence on industrial growth in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area in the next decade. Policies that will tend to strengthen the economy in the Edmonton Area include Provincial policies and programs that encourage industries to locate in Alberta and policies and programs that encourage continued natural resources development. On the other hand, the general lack of Federal government attention to Western aspirations (reflected in negotiations related to freight rates and air connections) has tended to hinder economic development in Alberta.
For a number of years the Provincial government has attempted, with some success, to attract secondary industry through various incentive programs. Recently, the Provincial government announced a rebate system on natural gas, which would offer a lower price to Alberta users than to users
(45) Conversation with Prof. S. M. A. Hameed, March 27, 1973 (46) Peter F. Drucker, "New Technology - Predicting Its Impact is Perilous and Futile," New York Times, Sunday, April 8, 1973.
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outside the Province. This could have a significant impact in attracting energy intensive industries, or industries dependent upon natural gas as a raw material such as some chemical industries. The cost of transporting finished products to distant markets remains a problem countering this policy. At this time, the policy is still in the formulation stage and until the extent of the rebate and other details are known, it is impossible to assess the impact on Alberta or the Edmonton Metropolitan Area. For purposes of the employment projections in this report, it is assumed that a gas price rebate system will be operational before 1981 and will have some effect on location decisions of particular industries. Through general encouragement and a system of financial support and assistance, the Provincial government is implementing a policy of decentralization designed to "...forestall congestion of persons and industry in the larger urban centers, and to induce the development and economic security of existing towns and villages by spreading the benefits of alternative industrial employment opportunities more evenly throughout the rural countryside". (47) Over the past few years, this policy of decentralization has been reflected in the federally-sponsored DREE (Department of Regional Economic Expansion) program, designed to assist industries in locating in designated areas of regional disparity, such as the Lesser Slave Lake Area of Alberta. Recently the geographic restrictions have been removed from the DREE program in order to make it more flexible.
The impact of these decentralization policies on Edmonton has not been major to date, although individual firms have been influenced. lf there are strong economic reasons compelling
(47) Alberta Bureau of Statistics, Alberta Industry and Resources, 1973, P.23.
-
97 -
a firm to locate in Edmonton, even financial subsidies may not be attractive. Et may also be argued that all population growth in Northern Alberta is of benefit to Edmonton firms that serve that region.
Governmental policies and regulations related to exploration and extraction of natural resources, especially oil, gas and coal, have and will continue to influence economic development in Edmonton.
Although the Federal government regulates
exports of natural resources to foreign countries, these have not significantly affected activity in Alberta to date. However, Provincial policies related to royalties and exploration rights do have a direct impact on Edmonton industries related to natural resources. Regulation of activity in the tar sands, especially, is expected to have a strong impact on the future. On the Federal level, policies regarding pipeline construction and Northern development will have an impact.
The final important area of government policies and programs as related to the Edmonton economy is the general attitude that the Federal government holds toward industrial development in Alberta and other Prairie Provinces. It is the opinion of some Provincial experts and various industries, that Albertan aspirations tend to be disregarded at the Federal level. This attitude may influence everything from freight rates and air transportation routes to the manner in which statistics are compiled and analyzed.
Government policies are a major factor contributing to the uncertainty of the future. Because policies are basically
- 93 political, they are virtually unpredictable.
In addition, un-
certainty regarding governmental policies creates uncertainty in the private sector and postpones investment decisions. The City of Edmonton should carefully monitor policies and assess the potential impact.
In addition, the City should join with the
Province in the development of policies, both on the Provincial and Federal levels, that strengthen the economies of Edmonton, Alberta, and Canada as a whole.
CHAPTER IV
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS AND DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL LAND: 1970-1981
A.
Introduction
The overall prospect for the Edmonton economy in the future is strong employment growth and demand for industrial land, especially due to tar sand development, the growth of Western Canadian markets, and the opening of the Yellowhead Highway. Although the future of Northern development (including the MacKenzie Highway and MacKenzie Valley pipeline) and a Provincial gas price rebate system are still uncertain, they may be additional factors encouraging the continued expansion of the Edmonton economy. However, freight rates and air transportation connections are currently forces keeping Edmonton from realizing its full economic potential.
It is
important that changes to ameliorate these problems be made as soon as possible.
The purpose of this chapter is to examine the future of individual industries in the Edmonton Area and translate emerging trends into specific employment and land demand projections for the Edmonton Sub-Region. Planning and research guidelines for the future are also indicated. Although employment and land demand projections are specified, the uncertainty of the
- 100 -
future must be constantly remembered. All of the projections presented here should be reviewed and modified on a continuing basis.
B. Potential Growth of Individual Industries
In the following section, trends in particular industries in Edmonton are highlighted. The industries discussed include some of the industries most characteristic of Edmonton, including warehousing and transportation, construction, and oil and gas related services. Among manufacturing industries, future prospects for food and beverage, clothing, petroleum and coal products, chemical products, primary metals, metal fabricating, printing and publishing, paper, wood, and furniture industries are reviewed. These industries have been reviewed because they are prime users of industrial land. A more detailed investigation of the tertiary sector of employment, especially the service industry (including business, community and personal services, public administration and defense) is recommended for future research.
The information presented here was gathered through interviews with approximately sixty Edmonton firms, a number of governmental experts, and a review of existing research reports. Due to lack of time and the need for specific information, no formal random sample procedure was followed. Attempts were made, however, to meet with a variety of types of firms, and to crosscheck information obtained. The in-depth interviews with Edmonton firms were supplemented with shorter telephone interviews and interviews in the field, including a small number of firms who currently do not have full City land services.
- 101 -
It should be noted that the future prospects summarized here do not represent what will happen for certain in the future. Strong private and public actions can affect the actual development in many industries.
C. Transportation and Warehousing
Transportation and warehousing activities are part of the larger industrial category of transportation, warehousing, communications and other utilities. Transportation and warehousing in particular are of major importance in the Edmonton economy at the present, and are expected to remain dominant in the coming decade. The role of Edmonton as a major distribution and service centre for Northern areas of British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan, as well as the Northwest Territories, is reflected in the trends of this industry.
In 1970, the transportation, warehousing communications and utilities industry accounted for an estimated 10.9% of total employment in Metropolitan Edmonton. For Canada as a whole, this industry accounted for 8.8% of total employment. (I)
In
terms of numbers employed, the industry was as large as all manufacturing employment in Edmonton put together. The types of warehouse firms in the City are highly varied in character and size of operation, including public warehousing (warehouse service offered to other firms), warehousing where space is actually rented to other firms, and warehousing where the space is rented to other firms but labour provided by the warehouse company. Some companies, especially for food and beverage products, own and operate their own specialized warehouses. The transportation
(1) For Canada as a whole, electric, water and gas utilities accounted for 1.1% of total employment in 1970, and the transportation, storage and communication industry accounted for 7.7%. Together these industries accounted for 8.8% of total employment.
- 102 -
industry also is diversified including the railroads, airline companies, trucking firms and services, moving companies and others related to the transport of people and goods.
Growth of the warehousing and transportation industry usually accompanies a rapidly growing economy. However, in an economy such as Edmonton's where growth is likely but large fluctuations in demand may also be experienced, warehousing and trucking services are even more dominant. in effect, they provide an alternative for a firm wishing to serve Alberta or Western markets, but not wishing to make a full investment required for a manufacturing plant. The warehouse may hold goods for different lengths of time in response to varying demands. By establishing a warehouse first, the parent company has a chance to test the market before actually establishing a local operation. For industries where basic economics dictate that manufacturing activities take place elsewhere, warehousing may be the only alternative.
A special study showing the linkages of industries with each other in the United States indicates that manufacturing activities in the food and beverage industry and primary metals industry have greater effects on stimulating warehousing and transportation activities than other industries. (2) Both of these industries are very important in Edmonton, hence strengthening warehousing and transportation.
Employment in warehousing and transportation is of medium intensity on the average, although the actual number of persons involved varies with the type of goods in question and the volume of goods handled. Employment in transportation alone is high-
(2) Industry Week, "Sales and Market Guide to the U. S. Economy," The Penton Publishing Co., Cleveland, Ohio.
- 103 -
intensity. Warehousing employment includes office, sales, warehouse and sometimes transportation personnel. Office staff at the warehouse site often account for one-half to two-thirds of total employment in a firm.
In Edmonton, warehouse and trucking firms are strongly clustered in the North-West Industrial Area. The small, new warehouse spaces available in this part of town, proximity to the Yellowhead Highway, and the presence of many food and beverage operations are major location factors. There are also a number of warehouse and trucking operations in the South and South-East Industrial Areas, especially firms related to the oil industry. In both the North-West and South-East Industrial Areas, small office and warehouse bays are available for lease. Often the firms locating in these smaller office warehouse buildings provide sales and repair services as well as warehousing. They may be the first office for a firm in Edmonton which may be followed by a larger establishment at a later date.
The future of warehousing and transportation is extremely strong since Edmonton is geographically in an excellent position to serve markets throughout Western Canada and the North. It is known that warehouses as large as one-half million square feet in area are on the drawing boards and that even larger warehouses may be demanded in the future. (3) The increasing use of computers makes it possible to easily keep track of increased volumes of warehouse goods and strengthens the tendency to centralize warehousing facilities at a few major points of distribution such as Edmonton.
In the future,
(3) Conversation with Mr. L. LeClerc, Director, City of Edmonton Business Development Department, May 4, 1973.
- 104-
the warehousing and transportation industry will be a dominant user of industrial land in all development industrial areas in the City, as well as industrial parks outside the City.
D. Construction
A brief functional description of the construction industry in Alberta is given in a recent Alberta Bureau of Statistics publication: The value of total expenditures has been fairly evenly divided between building construction and engineering construction. Residential construction in turn, accounts for about one half of the building construction total; expenditures on gas and oil facilities account for about one half of the total engineering construction. (4) "Of particular interest, because of their bearing on employment, are the number and timing of dwelling starts". (5) Dwellings have shown consistent and sometimes substantial increases in all major centres in Alberta, especially since 1961.
In the
future, tar sands and Northern Development are likely to create additional demands for construction services.
The use of precast concrete, modular units and other technological developments have affected the types of skills required in the construction industry. Overall, the industry remains fairly labour intensive, especially on the construction phase. An opportunity for Edmonton research and construction firms is the development of new construction technologies to meet special needs in the North.
The construction industry is interconnected with the industry of non-metallic mineral products (cement, concrete, clay and
(4) Alberta Bureau of Statistics, Alberta Industry and Resources, 1973, p 87 (5) Alberta Bureau of Statistics, Business Trends, January 1973, p. 7.
other construction materiais).
iice thee acera's are
difficult to transport and because mcny raw materials are available in the Edmonton area, they
6( r2 I,;)de
1ociiy, Goods
related to construction that are not iaruftured in Edmonton include some air conditioning, heating and efriyerations parts.
Employment in the construction rs,dustry rose
.5% in the
1961-1970 period, although t declined as - percent of total Edmonton Metropolitan Area efirl( .9.5% to
./12,. in 1970.
This represents a 4.1% average annual percentage increase from 1961 to 1970. In 1972, there were an estimated 265 construction firms located in industrial areas of the City out of a total of 456 firms in construction, manufacturing and warehousing combined.
For 1970-1981, strong growth is anticipated, in part reflecting employment increases projected for Canada. (6) A potential problem for the future is sensitivity to fluctuations in the economy which affect investment and hence demand for construction services.
E. Oil and Gas-Related Offices and Services
As has been noted throughout this report, employment in the service industry is dominant in the Edmonton area. One of the more unique aspects of the Edmonton service industry is the presence of many highly-specialized service establishments related to the extraction and production of oil, gas and related products. In Edmonton, these Firms are often small in size, combining sales with repair services or even light fabricating
(6) Economic Council of Canada, The Economy to 1980: Staff Papers, 1972, pp. 226.227.
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activities. These overlapping functions make the firms difficult to categorize, although the service function often dominates. These firms often devote some space for office use, some for warehousing, and some for "shop" or fabricating. These services or "operations" offices must be distinguished from "administrative" offices of oil exploration and production firms which are classified in the primary rather than service category of employment.
Detailed information on both administrative and operations oil offices in Edmonton and Calgary is available from an unpublished Ph. D. dissertation by G. H. Zieber entitled "inter- and Intra-City Location Patterns of Oil Offices for Calgary and Edmonton, 1950-1970." This research indicates that in 1969-1970 a total of 81.6% of all oil offices in Edmonton were related to field operations (669 offices), while the remaining 18.4% were administrative offices (158 offices). (7) Most of the oil operations offices are located in the South and South-East Industrial Areas, although a small number are located near 124 Street near the Industrial Airport, and in the North-West Industrial Area. The oil administrative offices are primarily located near 124 Street and near the Industrial Airport on Kingsway Avenue, although some are located in the central area and in various locations on the South Side. The oil operations offices use land zoned industrial, while the administrative offices are often found on land zoned for commercial uses.
The number of head offices in Edmonton increased significantly between 1950-1951 and 1969-1970, although head offices as a percent of all oil offices decreased.
In 1950-1951, 66.4% of all oil
offices (both operations and administrative) were head offices (184
(7) George H. Zieber, "Inter- and lntra-City Location Patterns of Oil Offices for Calgary and Edmonton, 1950-1970," unpublished Ph. D. Dissertation, Department of Geography, University of Alberta, Edmonton, pp. 113 & 182. Basic data on oil offices was compiled from Nickle's Canadian Oil Register.
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(184 offices total). Of this total, 61.49 were operations head offices and 38.6% were administrative head offices. In 19691970 57.1% of all oil offices were head offices (489 offices) with 79.0% of the total accounted for by oil operations head offices and 21.0% accounted for by administrative head offices. In both 1950-1951 and 1969-1970, Edmonton head offices accounted for approximately one-fifth of all head oil offices in Canada, while Calgary and Edmonton together accounted for two-thirds of all Canadian head oil offices (see Figure 9).
Although Calgary is often characterized as an "administrative oil centre" and Edmonton is termed an "operations oil centre", the actual distribution of oil offices reveals a less distinct picture. In 1969-1970, Calgary had more offices than Edmonton in both the administrative and operations categories, although the difference was greater for administrative offices (see Table 23). Although the actual size of the firms is not known, Calgary had 933 oil operations firms as compared with 699 operations firms in Edmonton in 1969-1970. The only category where Edmonton oil offices were greater in number than Calgary is in the areas of transportation and oil field construct ion. In this category, Edmonton offices accounted for thirty-three percent of all Canadian firms.
The reasons for different oil firms locating in Edmonton and Calgary in the past provide insights into the future distribution of firms. Dominant reasons in order of priority are indicated at the end of this section.
HEAD OIL OFFICES IN CALGARY, EDMONTON AND THE REST OF CANADA, 1950-1970 (BY PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL IN CANADA)
b. 80
80 Calgary and Edmonton
70
60
60
50
50
40 •
30
Per Cen t
Per Cent
70
Calgary
40 30 Edmonton
20
20
10
10
0 0 Year 50-51 54-55 59-60 64-65 69-70 50-51 54-55 59-60 64-65 69-70 ADMINISTRATIVE AND OPERATIONS c• 80
d. 80
70
70
60
60
50
50
Calgary
20
Canada
+.1
40
Canada
30 20
Edmonton
10
10
0 0 Year 50-51 54-55 59-60 64-65 69-70 50-51 54-55 59-60 64-65 69-70 ADMINISTRATIVE
OPERATIONS
SOURCE: Nickle's Canadian Oil Registry. Information and format from G.H. Zieber, "Inter and Intra-City Location Patterns of Oil Offices for Calgary and Edmonton, 19501970", unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Alberta, 1971, p. 74 Figure 9
Table 23 Number of Oil Administrative and Operations Offices Calgary and Edmonton, 1950-70 Oil Office Group and Type
1950-51 Calgary Edmonton
1959-60 Calgary Edmonton
1969-70 Calgary Edmonton
248 25 37 9
55 15 20 10
333 97 40 20
95 29 27 10
524 319 45 57
67 59 27 5
319
100
490
161
945
158
137 21
110 21
328 47
336 26
537 40
469 25
20
20
71
53
Administrative Producers, Explorers,Developers Consultants, Data Processors Financial and Investment Lease Brokers & Land Agents Total Administrative Operations Service & Supply Oilwell Drilling Contnacters Engineers, Designers, Constructors, Fabricators Geophysical & Exploration Drilling Contractors Oilwell Servicing Pipeline Companies and Power Distributors Refiners, Processors, Marketers, and Plant Operators Transportation & Oilfield Construction Total Operations
61
32
101 32
32 37
89 35
8 35
5
7
31
10
58
15
14
7
23
17
50
18
49
76
933
699
238
177
582
478
TOTAL ADMINISTRATIVE & OPERATIONS 857 277 1,072 639 1,878 557 SOURCE: Based on information from G. H. Zieber, "Inter- and Intra-City Location Patterns of Oil Office for Calgary and Edmonton, 1950-1970," unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Alberta, 1971, p. 113.
1 .... c k.0 i
- 110 -
The location factors clearly illustrate the importance of proximity to oil fields for Edmonton firms and the importance of proximity to the producers and explorers in Calgary. The importance of personal and historical factors, such as birthplace of the owner, a predecessor company, personal preferences, and the original oil discovery in Turner Valley (a factor for Calgary only) was second ranking in importance in both cities. In addition, it has been suggested that Calgary administrative oil firms that wanted to locate in Edmonton after the 1949 oil discovery near Leduc were not welcomed by some persons in Edmonton, hence encouraging the firms to remain in Calgary.
Due to the uncertainty of Northern development, remaining proved reserves of natural gas and conventional crude oil remain important for service and administrative oil firms. According to Energy Resources Conservation Board statistics, at 1972 rates of production, there is equivalent to a 17 year supply of convention crude oil and a 25 year supply of natural gas, based upon proved remaining recoverable reserves. Oil and gas pipelines centred in Edmonton provide additional demand for oilrelated services. Due to these continued demands, oil and gasrelated services in Alberta are expected to remain strong for at least the next decade. Figures 10 and 11 indicate existing pipelines and flows of oil and gas from Alberta.
Oil and gas discoveries in the far North provide a potential market for the long-term future. There are indications that some Edmonton firms have already expanded to international markets, especially the North Sea area. Tar sands development may also benefit some firms, although tar sands plant servicing requirements are different from oil and gas exploration and production. It is expected that employment in oil and gas-related services in the Edmonton area will generally remain stable in the next decade.
Location Factors: Oil Administration Offices (8) (in order of priority)
Calgary
Edmonton 1. Desire to be near oil and gas fields or field activities 2. Personal-historical 3. Good access to the North (Northern Alberta and Canada) 4. Good access to required services and supplies
1.
Desire to be near producers, explorers and developers
2. 3.
Personal-historical Good air connections with other cities (particularly with oil centres in U. S.) Good access to required services and supplies
4.
Location Factors: Oil Operations Offices
Calgary
Edmonton 1. Desire to be near oil and gas fields or field 2. Personal-historical 3. Access to other oil operations offices 4. Good access to the North
(8)
1. 2.
3. 4.
Desire to be near producers, explorers and developers Personal-historical Desire to be near oil and gas fields or field activities Good air connections with other cities (particularly with oil centres in the U. S.)
G. H. Zieber, Op. Cit.,pp. 140-142. Information based on random sample survey of fifty-eight firms in Edmonton and Calgary.
Legend Main oil pipeline Main gas pipeline Oil refinery Gas refinery ,
/ Oil sands
Source: Alberta Resource Maps
MAJOR OIL AND GAS PIPELINES IN ALBERTA 1972 Figure 10
( 3 C: :0
4
iLAnik 4k l
mACKENZIE DELTA
N°1441WES T TERRITORIES
a
--
AteER.rA c SA, I 1140 ot. SASKATCHEV‘AN 243 (a)190
7'348/4 1016
ct,"- 1,-
0\ft" MANITOBA 15 ao
c/)
/
COASTAL
SHELF
0141A1*()
as5
215
82
56
377
IMPORTS INCLUDING PRODUCTS
EXPORTS 743
95
MOVEMENTS OF OIL WITHIN, TO AND FROM CANADA, 1971 CONVENTIONAL AND SYNTHETIC CRUDE OIL AND EQUIVALENT FIGURES IN THOUSANDS OF BARRELS PER DAY Legend 243 Production ( )-Domestic consumption New active exploration
AA:*lri'll'VE ST
Source: Alberta Alberta Resource Maps
TERRITORIES
; ALBERr r' 3 S,:kSKATCHEWAN
(.4.,e ?S/
, /4 / /
164 MANITOBA I
3.940 63
/75
1,663
OA"'
1.39
57 123
712 EXPORTS 2,522
24
IMPORTS
MOVEMENTS OF NATURAL GAS WITHIN, TO AND FROM CANADA, 1971 FIGURES IN MILLIONS OF CUBIC FEET PER DAY
Figure 11
-
F. Food and Beverage Manufacturing
The food and beverage industry employed 5,718 persons in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area in 1970, accounting for 28.2% of all manufacturing employment. This industry is by far the largest single manufacturing employer in Edmonton. A large majority of employment in the food and beverage industry is in meatpacking, although there is also some employment in dairy, bakeries, beverages, specialized meat products and other types of firms. Forty-three percent of all food and beverage industry employment in Alberta is centred in Edmonton.
The importance of the food and beverage industry in the Edmonton economy is illustrated by the high value added figure of $75,000,000. This is more than twenty-five percent of the total value added by all manufacturing industries in Edmonton in 1971. Total value added in the food and beverage industry increased eighty-two percent between 1961 and 1970, indicating the strong expansion of the industry. Food and beverage employment in Metropolitan Edmonton grew twenty-four percent in the same time period.
The production of red meats is a major industry in Alberta as a whole, accounting for $400,000,000 in output each year. (9) Beef cattle production is centred around Red Deer, while hog production is centred around Edmonton. Red meat producers in Edmonton include four major meatpacking plants and a number of smaller specialty meat producers. The packing plants transport carcasses and some processed meats to Eastern Canadian markets, and supply processed meats for Western Canada as well. A number
(9) Acres Consulting Services, Ltd., The Alberta Food Processing Industry: Prospects, Goals and Objectives, Draft Report, prepared for the Alberta Department of Agriculture, July, 1972, p. 1.
- 115 of the speciality meat firms also serve Canada-wide markets. Approximately thirty-seven percent of all products from Alberta meatpacking firms are actually consumed in Alberta. (10)
One major reason for the continued growth of the meatpacking industry in Edmonton, as opposed to Calgary or other cities, is the saving that results from large-scale activity. Opportunities to share skilled employees and the encouragement of specialized firms serving the meatpacking industry are additional reasons. Meatpacking was an industry established in Edmonton in the early 1900 1 s and has remained a strong industry.
Although the future for both domestic and export markets is very bright for the red meats industry in Canada, current production in Alberta is limited by the basic supply of cattle. According to a recent study, an output increase in the Alberta meat industry of one hundred percent by 1980 is possible, if significant development efforts are undertaken. (11) Without special efforts, a twenty-five percent increase in output may be expected. It is estimated, however, that as much as eighty percent of the increase in income and employment resulting from any expansion will be felt outside the major cities. The existing meatpacking firms are likely to be able to handle a twentyfive percent increase in production in their present facilities, although additional expansion would be required for a one hundred percent increase in meat production. (12) Only a moderate employment increase is expected in the slaughtering and meatpacking industry in Edmonton, although the industry will remain dominant in terms of local employment.
(10) Ibid., Appendix 11. (11) Acres Consulting Services Ltd., The Alberta Food Processing Industry: Prospects, Goals and Objectives, Op. Cit., pp. 43-44. (12) Ibid., p. 17.
Other food and beverage industries in Edmonton, such as dairies, bakeries and breweries, serve markets in Northern Alberta or the Province as a whole. Dairy plants are concentrated in Edmonton and Calgary and meet most, but not all, demand for dairy products in the Province. Some moderate expansion in dairies may be expected as a result of demands for milk powder and bakery mixes, as well as the growing market in the Northwest Territories. Expansion in other food and beverage industries will generally reflect the total growth in population, with no major fluctuations expected. (12) Other Alberta industries, such as vegetable processing, vegetable oil, flour mills and cheese production which may expand are not concentrated in the Edmonton area.
A potential expansion area for food and beverage employment is in frozen prepared foods. A recent study of market conditions reports that "dramatic annual growth" is to be experienced in the frozen convenience foods market in Alberta, particularly as institutions becomes aware of inherent advantages and as manufacturing and wholesalers satisfy particular needs of institutions. (14) This expanded market may encourage the expansion of local firms or attract new firms to Alberta and Edmonton.
Locations within Edmonton for food and beverage manufacturing firms are scattered, with some operations located outside established industrial areas. Many years ago the large meatpacking plants established themselves in North-East Edmonton in order to be near the stock yards. Although
(13) ibid., p. 61. (14) Acres Consulting Services Ltd., Part 111: Market Demand for Frozen Prepared Entrees in Alberta's Commercial Institutions, prepared for Alberta Department of Agriculture and Associated Products Ltd., May, 1973, p. 2.
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this factor is declining in importance, the North-East remains Edmonton's meatpacking centre and may be an attractive location for special meat producers in the future. Other food and beverage industries cluster in the North-West Industrial Area because of easy access to all areas of the City (especially the Northern side of the City), and proximity to large food wholesale and warehouse firms. Some dairies and beverage firms are located in the Central Area, although some decentralization has already occurred. Bakeries are scattered through the City. (15)
G. Clothing Manufacturing
In view of transportation and market factors, the presence of a strong clothing industry serving national markets is something of a surprise in Edmonton. Because major textile manufacturing firms are located in Eastern Canada, clothing firms in Edmonton must bring in their raw materials from the East or foreign countries and transport back a large volume of the finished goods.
Personal and historic reasons appear to have played a major role in originally bringing the clothing industry to Edmonton. The firms that located in Edmonton employed local immigrant female labour and through business expertise overcame locational disadvantages. A number of nationally known firms have head offices and major plants in Edmonton. Many of the firms specialize in high fashion clothing.
The 1961-1970 period was a time of rapid expansion for the clothing industry in Edmonton, as reflected in an employment
(15) See also J. J. Nowicki and D. A. McQuillan "Location Trends of Food and Beverage Industries: The Edmonton Example," The Albertan Geographer, Department of Geography, University of Alberta, No. 4,
1967-1968.
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increase of fifty-eight percent. In Canada as a whole only a five percent employment increase was experienced. In 1970, ninety percent of all clothing manufacturing employment in Alberta was centred in Edmonton. Clothing and knitting employment in 1970 accounted for 8.7% of all manufacturing employment in Edmonton.
Interviews with representatives of the clothing industry in Edmonton indicate that labour force limitations may inhibit major expansion in the future, despite successful merchandising and growing markets. The clothing firms compete among themselves for the limited pool of labour. Therefore, despite Edmonton's current domination of the clothing industry in Alberta, any significant growth of the industry in the Province is expected to occur in other centres. In a 1971 research study of the clothing industry in Alberta, it was estimated that each of the Cities of Calgary, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat and Red Deer could support, at a minimum, a clothing plant employing 100 persons. (16) Presumably due to the current tight labour supply, Edmonton was not included in this list. Despite the fact that employment increases in Edmonton will be small in the next decade, the prospects of the industry are excellent and the firms presently in Edmonton are expected to continue at high levels of production.
Most clothing firms in Edmonton are located in inner areas of the City. The need to be close to public transportation and the homes of female employees is the major locational force. (16) Alberta Department of Industry and Tourism, "Manufacturing of Clothing in Alberta." Edmonton, September, 1971.
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No locational changes within the City are expected in the future since the major firms appear to have land to accommodate at least moderate expansion. It is possible however, that certain divisions of clothing firms, especially warehousing, will be able to relocate in outlying industrial areas.
H. Primary Metals Manufacturing
Nickel and steel are the major primary metals produced in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area. Steel production, utilizing electric furnaces to melt scrap steel, is expected to account for the growth in this industry in the next decade. Many of the primary metal products manufactured in Edmonton are linked to the construction and natural resources industries. Steel firms have tended to choose locations in the South and East Areas of the City and Metropolitan Area.
Steel production in Canada has tended to locate mainly in Ontario for historic and economic reasons. The major conditions required by large integrated steel complexes, such as large markets, availability of raw materials at relatively low cost, and low freight rates for finished products are all found in Ontario. (17) The feasibility of locating an integrated steel complex within the Prairie Region (Edmonton being a possible location) has been a subject of debate for a number of years. One recent study concluded that improved production methods enabling small steel complexes to operate economically and increased demand for steel products, especially related to pipeline construction, could make an integrated steel complex feasible in the future. (18) However, the opinion of some
(17) Hedlin Menzies and Associates, Opportunities for Manufacturing: Prairie Region to 1981, Op. Cit., p. 286. (18) Acres Western Ltd., Feasibility Study for a Basic Steel Industry in Alberta, Vol. 1, prepared for the Government of Alberta, August, 1971.
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people within the industry, as well as some outside experts, is that this is unlikely to occur.
Expansion of steel production facilities in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area has occurred recently, and steady future growth is anticipated. Although it is unlikely that Canadian firms alone will be able to supply the steel required for a major pipeline in the MacKenzie Valley (the need is estimated to be more than one-half Canada's total annual production of steel), firms in Edmonton and Alberta may well expand to meet part of the market demand. Tar Sands development could create additional demand for primary metal production.
I. Metal Fabricating Manufacturing
There are three basic types of metal fabricating firms operating in Edmonton. The small firm, often just two or three people with welding equipment, offers custom services to a local market. The larger firms are of two types; one primarily engaged in fabricating structural steel for the construction industry, the other, primarily engaged in fabricating pressure vessels and containers related to gas and oil exploration and production and chemical plants. Edmonton firms vary in the extent to which they add dollar value to the product during fabrication. Some firms do substantial fabricating while others combine repair services with warehousing and small amounts of fabricating.
Total 1970 employment in metal fabricating in Metropolitan Edmonton was 2,518 persons, second only to the food and beverage industry. Between 1961 and 1970, employment increased fifty-one percent. Metal fabricating accounted for 10.9% of all manufacturing employment in 1961 and 12.4% in 1970.
In 1970,
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forty-five percent of all metal fabricating employment in Alberta was located in Metropolitan Edmonton.
While the majority of firms continue to serve the local areas, recent trends show that a few firms are aggressively expanding their markets. (19) Some firms producing structural steel for the construction industry serve Northern Alberta and to some extent the Northwest Territories market. Firms engaged in pressure welding and custom fabricating are penetrating markets in British Columbia, the Northwest Territories and the United States. An increasing demand for steel in the construction industry and an increasing level of construction activity should generate strong growth in this industry. (20)
Metal fabricating firms are located throughout the industrial districts in Edmonton, although the larger firms are concentrated to the South and South-East. Many larger firms appear to have land for expansion, some of which is recently acquired.
Because
of overall strong growth in the industry (especially new firms), a strong demand for industrial land is expected in the future for metal fabricating.
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing.
Edmonton is the leading oil refining centre in Western Canada and the centre of a network of oil and gas pipelines extending to Western and Mid-Western areas of the United States and Canada. (21)
(19) Michael A. Crowston, "The Growth of the Metal Industry in Edmonton," Op. Cit., pp. 41-45. (20) National studies anticipate growth in the construction industry for Canada as a whole. See Economic Council of Canada, The Economy to 1980: Staff Papers, Op. Cit., p. 227. (21) There are two oil and two major gas pipelines from Alberta to the West Coast and Ontario. The Interprovincial Oil Pipeline runs from Edmonton to Sarnia and Port Credit, Ontario; the Trans-Mountain Oil Pipeline runs from Edmonton to Vancouver; the Trans-Canada Gas Pipeline runs from Southern Alberta to Montreal; and the Westcoast Transmission Gas Pipeline runs from Peace River to Vancouver.
122
(See Figure 10) Edmonton's function as an oil refining centre, has been accentuated by the recent decision of Gulf Oil and Imperial Oil to concentrate their Prairie Province operation in Edmonton. When the new Imperial Oil refinery is on stream in 1974, 1975, Edmonton will account for 55.8% of the oil refining capacity of Western Canada and 95.8% of the oil refining activity of Alberta. (22) The major reason for the consolidation is efficiencies and cost-savings resulting from large-scale operations. (23) The oil refining activity in Edmonton results primarily in gasoline, fuel oil and industrial products to serve markets in the Prairie Provinces.
In 1961, employment in petroleum and coal products was 728 persons or 4.8% of all 1961 manufacturing employment. (24) Although petroleum products manufacturing accounts for only a small percent of total Edmonton area employment (25), the industry is important in terms of dollars generated in the economy and the linkages with primary industry and oil service firms.
The oil refineries are centralized in the County of Strathcona, in the eastern area of Metropolitan Edmonton and are one factor encouraging the clustering of oil service firms in the South and South-East Industrial areas of the City. Future expansion of oil refineries is expected to occur in the same area,
(22) Information from Mr. L. LeClerc, Manager, City of Edmonton Business Development Department. (23) The necessity of special environmental equipment contributes to the economies of scale. 1970 employment information for petroleum and coal products is (2) -f) confidential due to the possibility of disclosure of individual firms. (25) This is also illustrated by the fact that only fifty new employees will be added by the expansion of the Imperial Oil Refinery in Edmonton, despite the fact that production capacity will be fifty percent greater than all other Prairie Province Imperial Oil Refineries combined. Information from interview with Mr. W. Dingle, Production Manager, Imperial Oil Company, February 20, 1973.
123
probably on sites already owned by major oil firms. Oil refining in Edmonton is expected to experience moderate increases, reflecting increases in population growth in the Prairie Provinces and rising demand for oil products.
The increasing demand for energy resources in North America has increased the profitability of coal mining, as well as oil and gas exploration activities in Alberta. Although coal production in Alberta has fluctuated in past years, 1972 production and sales of Alberta Coal established record values of 10.5 million tons and 48.8 million dollars. (26)
Coal bearing strata
in Alberta underlie approximately 95,000 square miles in the Plains, Foothills and Mountain Regions. Both Edmonton and Calgary are well-located to be major supply and service centres for the coal industry.
In the long-term future, coal gasification may increase the impact of coal resources on the Edmonton economy. Coal gasification can yield either "synthetic" pipeline gas, virtually indistinguishable from natural gas, or a feedstock for petrochemical processing. (27)
It is estimated that total manpower
for each coal gasification plant (and associated mining development) could be as large as eight hundred to one thousand persons. Although actual employment will vary with the types of methods used, coal gasification plants in the future may be a significant factor creating a demand for consumer and industrial goods and services. The major impact of coal gasification, however, is likely to be experienced after 1981.
(26) Energy Resources Conservation Board, Conservation in Alberta 1972 , Calgary, March, 1973, p. 18. (27) N. Berkowitz, Coal Gasification - A "State of the Art" Review, Information Series 64, Alberta Research, Edmonton, April, 1973, p. 1.
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K. Chemicals and Allied Products Manufacturing
A national and international perspective is required for a discussion of the chemical industry. Until recently, depressed product prices, industry over-capacity, and shrinking profit margins posed a bleak future for the industry in Canada. (28) This has in part resulted from the size of plants in Canada. "Without world-scale production facilities, the Canadian petro-chemical industry cannot be competitive with large foreign operations which have been able to sell their products in increasing quantities in Canada, as well as elsewhere in the world". (29)
Recently, buoyantly rising demand, improved market conditions, and increasing profit margins have led to plans for massive expansion of chemical plants in Sarnia and Montreal. (30) The future impact of these forces on Alberta, however, is uncertain. Although gas and oil refineries in Alberta are excellent sources of feedstocks, the major markets for chemical products are in Eastern Canada and the United States. Transportation costs for finished goods have discouraged firms from locating in Alberta. A recent study indicated that: The petro-chemical industry is not expected to expand in Alberta until at least one world-scale plant has been established in Sarnia. Alberta petro-chemical development on a large scale must look to substantial growth in the market in Western Canada, but the shipment of intermediates such as ethylene to central Canada could be a possibility. (31) The recently announced Provincial two-price gas system could have a significant impact on future petro-chemical development.
(28) W. L. Dach, "Chemical Men Believers Now: 70's a Boom" Financial Post, February 3, 1973; see also Bruce F. MacDonald, "Canada's Chemical Industry, a pattern of Challenge and Concern," in Chemistry In Canada,September, 1972, pp. 14-16. (29) Hu Harries and Associates Ltd., Forecast Industrial Natural Gas Requirements - Alberta, 1972-2001, prepared for Trans-Canada Pipelines Ltd. (30) W. L. Dach, Op. Cit., and Hu Harries and Associates Ltd., Op. Cit. (31) Hu Harries and Associates, Op. Cit., pp. iii and 20-21.
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Sufficient price differentiation could overcome current disadvantages of an Alberta location and entice firms to locate in Alberta earlier than otherwise anticipated. Details of the policy from which the impact on Edmonton can be assessed, however, have not yet been released.
Petro-chemical plants in the Edmonton Area are located east of the City in the County of Strathcona and northeast of the City near Fort Saskatchewan. Distributors and small chemical firms are located in the City. Edmonton Area firms manufacture and market most products on a national and international basis, although some products are directed toward Western Canadian and Alberta markets. Major projects made in the Metropolitan Area include cigarette filter tow, polyethylene film, acetate flake, arnel fibres, fertilizers, and industrial chemicals. Although 1970 employment statistics are not available for the chemical industry, there are some indications that employment in the industry may have declined. Expansion that has occurred has been in production volume rather than employment.
Conversations with officials in the industry and other researchers indicate varying pictures for the future. Some persons are extremely optimistic, indicating that Edmonton could become a major petro-chemical centre, especially if Provincial policies result in substantial natural gas rebates. Other persons are less optimistic, noting that it is not economical from a transportation standpoint to serve markets in Eastern Canada and the United States from Edmonton. A moderate employment increase in chemicals and allied products is projected for the Edmonton SubRegion in 1981.
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L. Printing, Publishing and Allied Products Manufacturing
Most of the sixty-four firms in the printing and publishing business in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area are small operations serving a local market. A few firms, through extensive moderization and sophistication of equipment, are now penetrating the Alberta market as well as the Yukon and Northwest Territories. In addition, several Edmonton firms specializing in computer print-out sheets and business forms serve a Western Canadian market. Significant expansion beyond these limits appears unlikely in the face of stiff competition, especially from established Vancouver and Winnipeg-based firms.
Employment growth in the industry has been strong in the last ten years in Metropolitan Edmonton. A recent study indicates excellent opportunities for the expansion of the printing and publishing industry in the Prairie Region and indicates an increase in employment of 1,200-1,500 persons in the Prairie Region by 1980. (32) Discussions with industry personnel in Edmonton, however, indicate that while strong growth is expected, it is anticipated that increased demand will be met through improved technology and modernization of machinery rather than through significantly increased employment.
Firms in the Edmonton Metropolitan Area have tended to locate in the Downtown Area. Indications are that most firms would prefer to remain Downtown, though expanding firms have recently located in the North-West Industrial Area. Some of the larger firms appear to have sufficient land for at least the next five years. Expansion of the industry, then, is not expected to have a significant impact on either employment or industrial land demand, at least within the projection period of this study.
(32) Helin Menzies and Associates, Op. Cit., pp. 222 & 282-285.
_ 127_
M. Paper Products, Wood Products and Furniture Products Manufacturing
The three industries of paper and allied products, wood products and furniture and fixtures are linked together by the fact that wood is a major raw material. Although they are all important industries in Alberta, only furniture products manufacturing is expected to experience significant growth in the coming decade in Edmonton.
In terms of employment, the paper industry is small in Edmonton. In 1961, the industry employed 311 persons, or only two percent of all manufacturing employment. Hinton and Grande Prairie, rather than Edmonton, are paper manufacturing centres in Alberta. In general, economies of scale make it easier and cheaper to supply most consumer paper products from Eastern Canada. Paper Products for use in the construction industry, however, such as roofing paper, gypsum board, corrugated boxes, and cardboard containers are manufactured in Metropolitan Edmonton to serve markets in Northern Alberta. This sector of the industry may experience some growth as construction activity increases.
The four primary wood products produced in Alberta include pulp, plywood, lumber and in the immediate future, particle board. While recent growth in wood products has been strong in Alberta and is expected to continue, the direct impact on Edmonton will probably be small. Most new plants are expected to locate in the Peace River, Hinton and Slave Lake Areas, near the source of raw materials. Secondary processing of lumber in sash, door and planing mills, producing goods for new home construction, has occurred on a small scale in Edmonton
- 128 -
to meet local demand. For the future, there is some indication that Western Canadian demand has reached a point where largescale plants may develop in Alberta. According to some knowledgeable persons in the industry, the impact will be felt in the next few years, though probably not to any extent in Metropolitan Edmonton.
Employment in the furniture and fixtures industry increased thirty-five percent between 1961 and 1970. In 1970, the industry accounted for 3.6% of all manufacturing. Currently there are two large-scale furniture makers in the City as well as a number of smaller firms (ten to fifty employees) engaged in manufacturing specialty household furniture, kitchen cabinets, and furniture repair. The smaller firms serve the local market, while the markets of the two larger firms are oriented towards Alberta, British Columbia, and to some extent Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Raw materials are imported either from Vancouver or from Eastern Canada, adding to the already high transportation costs for furniture. A scarcity of skilled workers, especially upholsterers, is another limiting factor. There is a definite Western Canada market, however, and large firms may establish branch plants in the West in the future, quite possibly in Alberta. Very large-scale production, however, will require penetration of national or international markets which does not seem imminent.
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N. Employment Projections for the Edmonton Sub-Region
Information on past employment trends, major forces affecting the Edmonton economy in the future, trends in individual industries, and existing employment projections for Canada and the Prairie Provinces were major sources of information used to derive assumptions and project employment in the Edmonton Sub-Region to the year 1981. The basic assumptions for these projections are as follows: 1.
The Canadian economy will experience strong growth in the next decade, as projected by the Economic Council of Canada;
2.
The current trend toward increasing productivity in the secondary sector and employment growth in the tertiary sector will continue;
3.
Efforts by the Province of Alberta to reduce freight rates will be successful for some industries;
4.
Tar sands development will proceed, with an estimated additional two plants being under construction by 1981;
5.
A natural gas rebate system will be implemented by the Province of Alberta;
6.
There will be sufficient serviced industrial land in the Edmonton Sub-Region to accommodate all interested firms.
As a result of the uncertainties concerning the above assumptions as well as other factors influencing the Edmonton Economy, these assumptions and the resulting projections should be periodically reviewed and updated.
_ 130_
Based upon the above assumptions and information about future economic prospects in the Edmonton Region, it is projected that employment in Edmonton will experience an average annual percentage increase of 3.9% in the 1970-1981 period, increasing from 205,632 in 1970 to 299,279 in 1981.
This is
less than the average annual percentage increase of 5.3% estimated for Metropolitan Edmonton in the 1961-1970 period, but is more than the projected average annual percentage increase for Canada (1970-1980) of 3.1%. (33) Although the average annual percentage increase in Edmonton's employment is expected to be lower in the 1970-1981 period than in the past, the total employment increase is expected to be similar to that experienced between 1961-1970, taking into account the different number of years included in these periods.
In the nine year period of 1961-
1970, employment increased by 78,347 in Metropolitan Edmonton, or an average of 8,705 each year. For the eleven year period of 1970-1981, a total employment increase of 93,647 persons is expected, an average of 8,513 each year. Employment projections are indicated on Tables 24, 25 and 26, and Figures 12 and 13.
The causal relationship between population and employment is a long-standing issue in urban research. On one hand, population growth creates increased demand for goods and services and hence stimulates employment growth. On the other hand, growth in employment brings with it population growth, both directly to meet manpower needs and indirectly (to provide services to persons employed). The inter-relationship of population and employment growth creates a problem for projecting employment since complete information about the interaction of these two variables in Edmonton is not known. For purposes of this report, employment is considered to be a major generator of population growth for the next ten years •
(33) Economic Council of Canada, The Years to 1980, Op. Cit., p. 62.
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The total population figure that corresponds to the projected total employment for 1981 in the Edmonton Sub-Region is 694,057 persons. This population figure was obtained by assuming an unemployment rate of 4.5% and a labour force participation rate of 59.6% for persons aged 14 years and over. The calculations were made as follows: Basic Relationships Employment + Unemployment = Labour Force Unemployment Rate = Unemployment/Labour Force Labour Force Participation Rate = Labour Force/Population 14 years and over Calculations - Edmonton Sub-Region - 1981 Employment = 299,279 Unemployment rate = 4.5% (34) Unemployment = 14,102 Labour Force = 313,381 Labour Force Participation Rate = 59.6% (35) Population Ages 14 years and over = 525,420 Total Population = 694,057 (36) Due to the difficulty of projecting future rates of unemployment and labour force participation, it is estimated that the employment projections are more accurate than the derived population projections.
(34) The Economic Council of Canada has identified 4.0% unemployment for the nation as a reasonable goal for 1980. It is expected that Edmonton Area unemployment rates will be somewhat higher than the Canadian average, largely because of persons moving into the area without jobs in anticipation of obtaining jobs. The unemployed category of the labour force is considered to be very volatile and temporary as far as many individuals are concerned. It does not mean that Edmonton will experience more hardship than Canada. (35) A labour force participation rate of 59.6% for the Province of Alberta in 1981 was estimated by M. V. George and K. S. Gnanasekaran, Population and Labour Force Projections for Alberta, 1970-1985, Human Resources Research Council, March, 1972, p. 147. It is assumed that this rate will also apply to the Edmonton Sub-Region in 1981. (36) Based on age distribution information for Metropolitan Edmonton as reported in a City Planning Department Report, Metropolitan Edmonton Population Projections - 1970-2001, September, 1971, p. 26.
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Table 24
Projected Employment by Sectors to 1981: Edmonton Sub-Region (1)
Sector
1970 Estimated Employment For Metro. Area
% Total
1981 Projected Employment for Sub-Region
% Total
6,378
3.1%
7,716
2.6%
38,804
18.9%
50,291
16.8%
Tertiary
160,450
78.o%
241,272
80.6%
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
205,632
100.0%
299,279
100.0%
Primary Secondary
(1) Employment total for each sector were obtained by adding together the appropriate employment categories (see definitions below) and adding a percent of the unclassified employment category. Unclassified employment was allocated according to employment distribution when that category is excluded. Definitions: Primary - Agriculture, fishing and trapping, mines, quarries and oil wells. Secondary - Manufacturing and construction. Tertiary - Transportation, warehousing, communications, and utilities; trade; finance, insurance, and real estate: community, business, personal services; public administration and defense.
133
Table 25
Employment Projections to 1981: Edmonton Sub-Region
Industry
1970 Estimated Employment for Metro Area (1)
1970 %
Total
1981 Projected Employment for SubRegion
1981 % Total
1970-1981 Projected Average Annual % Increase
6,169
3.0%
7.482
2.5%
1.6%
Manufacturing
20,258
9.8%
23,644
7.9%
1.4%
Construction
17,274
8.4%
25,139
8.4%
3.5%
10.9%
35,913
12.0%
4.3%
35,540
17.3%
53,870
18.0%
3.9%
8,342
4.1%
11,971
4.0%
3.4%
43.2% 132,282
43.5%
3.6%
8,978
3.0%
2.7%
100.0% 299,279
100.09
3.9%
Primary (2)
Transportation, Warehousing, 22,520 Communications Utilities Other & Trade Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate Service (3)
88,798
Other Classified
6 ,731
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
205,632
3.3%
(1) 1961 Census Metropolitan Area boundaries used. (2) Primary employment includes agriculture, fishing and trapping mines, quarries, oil wells, etc. (3) Service employment includes community, business, and personal services, public administration, and defense.
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Table 26
Manufacturing Employment Projections to 1981: Edmonton Sub-Region
Industry 1970 Employment For Metro Area (1)
1970 % Total
1981 Projected Employment for SubRegion
1981 % Total
1970-1981 Projected Average Annual % Increase
Food & Beverage
5,718
28.2%
6,147
26.09
0.6%
Clothing & Knitting
1,769
8.7%
1,891
8.o%
0.6%
Wood
940
4.6%
946
4.0%
0.0%
Furniture & Fixtures
739
3.65
946
4.o%
i.6%
Paper & Allied
*
307
1.39
*
Printing, Publishing, & Allied
0.52
1,280
6.3%
1,348
5.7%
*
*
1,182
5.0%
2,518
12.4%
3,452
14.6%
2.9%
Machinery
628
3.i%
1,135
4.8%
5.5%
Transportation Equipment
751
3.7%
875
3.7%
1.4%
1,385
6.8%
1,608
6.8%
1.4%
Petroleum & Coal Products
679
3.4%
804
3.4%
1.5%
Chemicals & Allied Products
*
'
1,442
6.1%
7.2%
1,561
6.6%
0.6%
100.0% 23,644
100.0%
1.4%
Primary Metals Metal Fabricating
Non-metallic Mineral Products
Miscellaneous Mfg.(2) TOTAL MANUFACTURING
1,466 20,258
*
*
*Information confidential due to disclosure of individual firms (1) 1961 Census Metropolitan Area boundaries used. (2) Miscellaneous manufacturing includes rubber and plastics, leather, textiles, electrical products, and other miscellaneous.
SUMMARY OF EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY 1961, 1970 AND 1981
Primary
Manufacturing
Construction Transportation & Warehousingl Trade
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
,
Service
Other Unclassified
J... 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Employees in thousands Legend 2 1961 Metropolitan Area Employment 1970 Metropolitan Area Employment 1981 Sub-Region Projected Employment 1 This category also includes communications and other utilities 2 1961 and 1970 employment figures are estimates Source: Planning Department
Figure 12
SUMMARY OF MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT 1961, 1970 AND 1981 Food & - Beverage Clothing & Knitting
2
E
Z////// //W//I ////////////7/7//////!444/././
Wood 9
Furniture & Fixtures Paper & Allied
--1 n/a 7/
Printing, Publishing & Allied f///////// Primary Lietals
n/a
1
1
Metal Fabricating Machinery Transportation Equipment Non-Metallic Mineral Products
'/////////// 1
Petroleum & Coal Products Chemicals & Allied
i
,
1
n/a f/r•
Miscellaneous Manufacturing 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Employees Legend 1961 Metropolitan Area Employment l 1970 Metropolitan Area Employment 7///////, 'Z 1981 Sub-Region Projected Employment 1
1961 and 1970 employment figures are estimates n/a - information not available
Source: Planning Department
Figure 13
137-
0. 1981 Industrial Land Demand Projections: Edmonton Sub-Region
As reported in Chapter It of this report, development completed in industrial zones in Edmonton averaged 143 net acres per year in the 1962 to 1971 period. In 1972, land developed in industrial areas totalled 163 net acres.
It must be remembered,
however, that extreme fluctuations in land demand are experienced from year to year.
Between 1962 to 1972, the highest yearly de-
mand was 231 net acres (1963) and the lowest demand was 82 net acres (1971).
Industrial land demand projections for the Edmonton SubRegion are based upon past land development trends, knowledge of the current industrial land market situation, and expected employment increases. The figures presented here have been developed jointly by the City Planning Department and the Industrial Land Program.
Industrial land demand projections for the Edmonton SubRegion are based on the following assumptions: Employment projections for 1981 are reasonably accurate; 2.
Employment densities (employees/acre) for the construction and transportation and warehousing industries will apply to the future; The expected increase in the number of manufacturing firms from Eastern Canada and the United States locating in Edmonton will lower the average employment densities for manufacturing (because these firms often required additional land for expansion);
4.
The demand for land in industrial zones for trade and service uses will increase from 17.8% (recorded in 1972) to 20% of all land used for manufacturing, construction, warehousing and transportation, trade, and service activities combined;
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5.
There will be a small demand for public and institutional land in industrial areas;
6.
Land requirements for dedication and railroad rights-of-way will reflect current trends.
The industrial land demand in the Edmonton Sub-Region resulting from the employment projections and the above assumptions is 180.2 net acres (234.3 gross acres) per year; or a total of 1,932 net acres (2,577 gross acres) in the 1970-1981 period. Based on the consumption rate of 234 gross acres per year, there is enough vacant industrial land for approximately 22 years in the future within the City of Edmonton boundaries. (37) These figures are detailed on Table 27.
The industrial land demand projections represent general demand trends for the 1970-1981 period. Because there is currently a short supply of serviced industrial land, it is expected that the 1974-1975 land demand will be approximately 200 net acres, rather than the average projected figure of 180.2 net acres per year. The establishment of an inventory of available serviced land will also tend to increase this figure. While these land demand figures are useful as a general guide for land planning and servicing, fluctuations from year to year should be expected; the supply of serviced industrial land needed each year must be reviewed on an individual basis.
In terms of location in the City of Edmonton, it is recommended that fifty percent of the industrial land supply
(37) Current estimates of undeveloped industrial land in outline plan areas as of 1972, are as follows: North-West Industrial: South-East Industrial: South Industrial: TOTAL:
1,920 1,940 1,320 5,180
gross gross gross gross
acres acres acres acres
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be available in the North-West, and fifty percent be available in the South and South-East. While some firms can locate equally well in either area, others have specific location requirements. In addition, it is recommended that at least 100 acres of serviced industrial land (with a variety of parcel sizes) be available at all times in order to provide a reasonable choice to individual firms.
It is extremely important that the availability
of industrial land be monitored on an on-going basis, so that a reasonable supply of serviced land is available at all times. The land actually demanded within the City of Edmonton boundaries will result from the availability of services and land prices factors that are uncertain at the present time.
P. Future Demand for Industrial Land Services
Most industries locating in the City of Edmonton in the next decade will likely want full City land services, including storm and sanitary sewer, water, power, telephone, pavement, curb and gutter. Some of the industries that do not desire full City services will choose rural locations. However, there are some types of industries that are urban in character yet do not need full City land services, especially storm and sanitary sewer. In addition to auto junk yards, some firms that require large amounts of outdoor storage space and have few employees do not need full land services. This trend is likely to continue in the future, especially for firms that need storage area for pipes, equipment, metal parts, trucks, etc. For some industries, the land price for semi-serviced land may be attractive.
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Table 27 Industrial Land Demand, 1970-1981 Edmonton Sub-Region (Primarily serviced land) Manufacturing Construction Transportation, warehousing, communications and other utilities Trade and service Other public and institutional SUB-TOTAL
25% allowance for land dedication (10% reserve + 15% roadways = 25%) 5% allowance for railroad rights-of-way TOTAL INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND
230.0 net acres 102.9 1,116.1 483.0 50.0 1,932.0 net acres (180.2 net acres/year) 496.0 99.0 2,577. gross acres, 1970-1981 (234.3 gross acres/year)
Notes of Explanation: 1.
The projected land demand for manufacturing uses is based upon 1970 employment densities plus a factor of approximately 40 acres to allow for the trend toward lower employee densities.
2.
The projected land demand for trade and service uses represents 20% of all uses (excluding other public and institutional). This is slightly more than the 17.8% figure recorded in 1972, and reflects the projected expansion of trade and service uses.
3.
Because employment density figures were derived from City of Edmonton information but are applied to employment projections for the Sub-Region, the land demand figures should be regarded primarily as demand for serviced industrial land.
4.
The demand for industrial land within the City of Edmonton will depend upon the availability of land services, price of land, and other factors that cannot be determined at this point in time.
It is therefore recommended that the possibility of a "semiserviced" industrial area within the City of Edmonton be carefully reviewed by the Planning Department. It is important that such a "semi-serviced" area be provided with water, roads, power, and telephone, and that septic systems meet the minimum health standards.
Ideally, such an industrial area would be designated
in areas where intensive urban development is impossible or where storm and sanitary services are not easily available.
It is
also recommended that the City of Edmonton support and encourage the Edmonton Regional Planning Commission to plan for unserviced industrial land needs. The City of Calgary is currently implementing a "semi-serviced" industrial park that may be a useful example for review.
Q.
Recommendations for Planning and Future Research
Employment growth in the Edmonton Sub-Region and the related demand for industrial land in the City of Edmonton are expected to be strong in the coming decade. If the City of Edmonton chooses to accommodate the pressure for industrial growth, effective planning and servicing for industrial land are necessary. Flexibility is also a necessity, since the Edmonton economy is subject to large fluctuations, and since there are a number of important decisions that will affect Edmonton's future industrial development that have not as yet been made.
It is recommended that the short-term objective for industrial land planning in Edmonton be the provision of serviced industrial land in the North-West, the South-East, and South Industrial Areas. Because of the varied land needs of industries which are virtually unpredictable, it is recommended that many different sizes of parcels be available.
1 142
The basic recommendations for industrial planning in Edmonton are summarized below: that the principle of providing flexible industrial areas with a variety of types of industrial land and parcel sizes be a basic guide for planning; 2. that a minimum of 230 gross acres (180 net acres) per year be serviced and available for development in the City of Edmonton; that the above figure be regarded as a general guide for the future, and modified as needed to maintain an inventory of approximately 100 net acres of available vacant serviced industrial land; 4.
that there should be an equitable distribution of vacant serviced land throughout the industrial areas of the City to provide industries that are locating here with a variety of choice;
5.
that the Edmonton Regional Planning Commission be urged to give priority to industrial planning comparable to some of the other key issues to be explored in the Regional Growth Alternatives Study.
In addition to presenting the above recommendations on industrial land planning the study identified several activities within the Planning Department which need to be continued or initiated. These activities are being listed as information. 1.
to undertake systematic discussions with the Manager of the Land Development Program, the Business Development Department, industrial realtors and industrial land developers for the purpose of reviewing the industrial land market and industrial land planning problems.
2.
to examine the feasibility of a "partly-serviced" industrial area within the City limits for use of those industries that do not require fully serviced locations.
3.
to examine the specialized land servicing and transportation requirements of the warehousing industry.
4.
to undertake a special study of employment and land demand trends in the service industrial sector and the implications for commercial and industrial development.
- 1435. to periodically review and update the 1981 employment projections for the Edmonton Sub-Region. 6. to undertake, when required, the background research needed to facilitate resolution of the problem of railway interswitching.
It is hoped that these recommendations and further studies can be implemented in the near future. Because of the current short supply of serviced available industrial land and the expected future demand, effective industrial land planning should be a priority in the City of Edmonton.
CHAPTER V
INDUSTRIAL LAND POLICY AND THE SHORT SUPPLY OF AVAILABLE SERVICED LAND
A.
Introduction
The major industrial land problem in Edmonton is the very short supply of serviced available land.
In January,
1973, only
40.6 acres of fully-serviced land were available for sale and 44.5 acres available for lease in the City. The demand for serviced land has increased rapidly in the past two years, and a strong demand is projected for the future.
If the City of Edmonton wishes to attract and accommodate industry, aggressive action, affirmative policies, and a co-ordinated approach are needed. The recommendations in this chapter are directed to alleviating the servicing problem and creating a planning process for keeping the problem from recurring in the future.
B.
Existing Industrial Land Policies
The General Plan of the City of Edmonton is the official guide for policy and planning in the City.
The Industrial
Development Chapter of the General Plan identifies the basic character of industrial areas and establishes objectives and principles for industrial development. Three of the most important objectives are listed below:
1.
To promote the achievement of a diversified or balanced industrial mix which will provide a variety of employment opportunities, to provide greater cyclical stability and broaden the tax base of the community. To draw industrial development to Metropolitan Edmonton by creating a sound and advantageous environment for industry. To ensure that there are adequate reserves of industrial land for all anticipated requirements and particularly for heavy industry. (1)
A complete listing of objectives and principles for industrial development from the General Plan is contained in Appendix 1. Although the research upon which the General Plan is based was completed in 1964, the philosophy and direction set forth are still valid for the 1970's.
In the past several years, additional policies related to industrial land have been adopted by City Council to meet specific problems. Examples of such problems are the financing of industrial land servicing, and the problem of interswitching. These specific policies help to implement the broader objectives and principles of the General Plan.
C. Functions of City Departments Involved with Industrial Land Planning and Development
There are currently seven City departments that play major roles in industrial land planning and development, not including the railroads, and the power and telephone utilities. The functions of the seven departments related to industrial land are summarized below:
(1) City Planning Department, General Plan, "Industrial Development," p. 7.4.
146 -
Property and Building Management Department: Responsible for industrial land purchase and sale as well as replot negotiations. Realty Development Office: Responsible for the coordination of servicing and developer's servicing agreements. The office assists when problems arise concerning industrial land servicing and provides information about servicing schedules and the land development process. Business Development Department: Responsible for the implementation of a comprehensive program to facilitate economic and industrial growth, provision of information for capital investment purposes, and creation of new basic jobs which attract dollars to the community. Industrial Land Program: Responsible for coordinating all aspects of industrial land development and solving problems as they arise, with particular emphasis on land development and servicing policies and the needs of industrial firms. Water and Sanitation Department: Responsible for the provision of water, storm sewer, and sanitary sewer to all areas in the City, including industrial areas. Transportation and Engineering Department: Responsible for the planning and provision of roads, sidewalks, street lights, and other local improvements. Planning Department: Responsible for coordination of research and planning for industrial areas including outline plans, subdivision plans, replot schemes, industrial land research, and special planning projects.
_17_
The responsibilities of most of these departments are not limited to industrial development, and to a large extent departmental priorities are set internally.
As a result, the pro-
posed program of one department may be delayed because another department directly involved in the process is not able to attend to the matter.
Several approaches have been followed over the past several years to coordinate activities of different City Hall Departments. Between Fall, 1971 and Spring, 1972 a special Committee on Review of Planning and Servicing of Industrial Subdivisions provided coordination and direction. The Committee, chaired by the Director of the Business Development Department, included representatives from the Departments of Planning, Property and Building Management, Engineering and Transportation, Mill Woods Project, and Water and Sanitation. The Committee identified industrial land servicing priorities and solved special problems related to industrial land development.
It is difficult for top-level committees to be effective, however, without staff to provide background information and continuity
Realizing that industrial land development co-
ordination requires full-time work, several special departmentments were created in the Spring of 1972. The Realty Development Office was established to coordinate City services for all land, and the Industrial Land Program was established to provide coordination and policy direction specifically on industrial development concerns.
In addition, industrial
land planning became a priority within the Planning Department.
1 1+8 -
At the present time then, there are three departments actively involved with industrial land planning and servicing problems: Realty Development, Industrial Land Program, and the Planning Department. Although each department has a specific purpose, there is some overlap in function, especially as related to coordination. Because the City of Edmonton plays an important role in planning and servicing industrial land, it is important that individual functions and responsibilities be clearly defined. These departments have worked together in establishing industrial land servicing priorities from a planning standpoint.
D.
Industrial Land Prices
The short supply of serviced industrial land plus the strong demand for land have created a land market where sellers can command extremely high prices. It has been estimated by several realtors that the average price for serviced industrial land has risen thirty to fifty percent, and in some cases one hundred percent, in the past year and a half. Prices for privately-owned serviced industrial land ranging as high as $25,000-$40,000 in the North West Industrial Area and $30,000-$60,000 in the South-East Industrial Area have been reported. These prices are higher than Saskatoon and Winnipeg, and in some cases higher than the City of Calgary, due to varying market conditions and civic programs and policies.
A sizable portion of the price for serviced industrial land (especially for small parcels) is for the actual land services, especially storm and sanitary sewer. As of March, 1973, costs for sanitary and storm sewer, water, paving,
149 concrete curb and gutter, and street lights in industrial areas were estimated as follows: $16,300/acre - 2 acre lot $13,100/acre - 5 acre lot $10,400/acre - 10 acre lot (2) The high cost of services is largely due to increased costs for labour and materials.
In addition, servicing costs assessed
directly to the property owner have increased in the past several years as a result of changes in City Policy. Prior to 1971, the costs for storm and sanitary trunk sewer were recovered through general City tax revenue, rather than through property assessments to individuals receiving the services. Also, prior to 1971 servicing charges were assessed on a front footage basis, as opposed to an acreage basis. The effect of this later policy change has been to increase the relative cost of services for small land parcels, as opposed to large land parcels. The high costs of land services emphasizes the importance of exploring the possibility of planned, semi-serviced industrial areas, as recommended in Chapter V.
There is some indication that new procedures for property tax assessment of vacant land in the City are affecting the total supply of industrial land on the market, and hence the price of industrial land. Under the reassessment which was completed in early
1973, vacant industrial land is taxed accord-
ing to its full market value rather than at its value as farmland. Whether the increased taxes will increase the supply of raw land and significantly reduce industrial land prices is uncertain at the present time. (3) (2) Information from the Realty Development Office, City of Edmonton. (3) Research concerning the effect of taxes on residential land prices has been reported by R. Stafford Smith, "Local Income Taxes as an Alternative to Higher Property Taxes: A Summary", Public Affairs Report, Vol. 11, No. 4, August, 1970. Evidence gathered in the study "indicates that for a certain set of demand conditions, for each unexpected dollar increase in the property taxes, the sales value of the home fell by about $14.50". Whether industrial land in Edmonton will be affected similarly is unknown.
- 150 -
The high prices for industrial land in Edmonton have resulted from both the strong demand and the short supply of serviced land.
By increasing the supply of serviced land, it is
hoped that the extreme prices that are being requested by some landowners will be moderated. The precise effect that increasing the supply of serviced land will have on market prices, however, is unknown.
E.
Industrial Land Development Process
Although the City Planning Department undertakes a variety of planning studies for industrial land and coordinates subdivision and replot plan activities, it is usually the landowner who initiates the industrial land development process that transforms raw land into serviced industrial land for development.
The development process is often initiated through informal discussions by the landowner with relevant City departments. If the owner is interested in proceeding with land subdivision and development, he is requested to submit a tentative subdivision plan for review. This is followed by a formal application for subdivision which is circulated by the Planning Department to other departments and agencies for review. In anticipation of completed subdivision, City departments prepare engineering designs for the installment of services to the subdivisions. The time necessary to process this plan and implement servicing is usually twelve to fifteen months, if no unusual problems are encountered. This time period can be reduced if the plan is not complex and services are available in the proximity of the subdivision.
- 151 ..,
The landowner has the option of paying the City to install services or of entering into a servicing agreement whereby the developer installs the services according to City standards. If the City provides the services, the landowner may pay the full costs initially, or amortize the cost over a longer period of time (including interest charges). The installation of the services is done by the Department of Water and Sanitation and the Department of Transportation and Engineering in accordance with budgeted priorities, although attempts are made to meet requests of landowners as soon as reasonably possible after subdivision approval.
In past years in Edmonton, industrial land development has been undertaken by the City, individual industries, landowners, and in a few cases, industrial developers. More recently, largely because a more certain market exists, additional developers have expressed interest in industrial land.
It
is expected that in the future the majority of industrial land development will be coordinated by individual developers who then market the land in the industrial parks to individual industrial firms.
For the future, it is recommended that the City invite and encourage industrial land development proposals from the private sector.
In addition, City Planners can lead the way by research-
ing development trends and suggesting innovative design and planning concepts. The respective roles of the public and private sectors regarding industrial development are (and should remain) complementary.
- 152 -
F. Factors Contributing to the Short Supply of Serviced Industrial Land
A variety of factors have combined to create the current shortage of serviced industrial land in Edmonton. These problems include the physical provision of services (especially storm and sanitary sewer facilities), interswitching problems, fragmented ownership of land, past priorities in the City Planning Department, and regional issues. All of these problems are interlinked with each other; it is impossible to determine which of these factors is in fact the "major" problem. Each of these problems is summarized below:
1. Lack of Trunk Sewers
This factor is the most apparent in the North-West industrial Area where there is currently no trunk sanitary or storm sewer available north of 114 Avenue or west of 170 Street. Approximately 1,900 acres of industrial land are affected by this lack of sewer lines. Although construction of the facilities is proceeding as rapidly as existing equipment will allow, completion is not anticipated before 1974-1975.
In the South and South-East
Industrial Areas trunk facilities are available, although distribution lines have not been constructed.
2. Fragmented Land Ownership
The pattern of land ownership contributes to the short supply of serviced industrial land in Edmonton.
In most areas,
land is fragmented, with a variety of persons owning various parcels. As a result, lengthy replot procedures are often necessary before a plan of subdivision is agreed upon. This
- 153 -
problem has been a general impediment to planning in Edmonton for all types of land uses. For industrial areas, it has been particularly severe in the North Bonaventure, Papaschase and Coronet replot areas.
Limited Involvement of Private Developers
In the past, very few developers have actually worked with industrial land in Edmonton on any major scale. As a result, there has not been a lobby of developers drawing the City's attention to the problem of industrial land services.
4.
Industrial Land as a Priority for Planning
Until recently, industrial land has not been a priority in the City Planning Department. As a result the outline plan from which roadways and utility corridors could be planned have been set aside in favour of other projects.
5.
Regional Issues
The lack of serviced industrial land is a regional problem that extends beyond the boundaries of the City. However, due to the unresolved issue of annexation, it is a temporary policy of City Council not to extend services beyond City boundaries. As a result of this policy, some land that is available for development does not have the complete services that the industries and land owners may wish. The problem is complicated by the lack of regional planning for industrial land development.
154-
Railway Interswitching Limits
Interswitching service provides for the transfer of goods from a rail track operated by one railway to a track operated by another. This is an important service for industries relying heavily on rail transport, since it reduces the time and cost of transporting goods.
This is a "special" land service
that is presently affecting industrial land.
Interswitching service to industries located within four miles (by track) of designated railway interchange points has been available in Canada since 1918 as a result of a general order made by the Board of Railway Commissioners. Since 1967, the service has been available to all industries within the fourmiles limit free of charge.
In 1918 when the interchange points
were designated and four-mile limit established, the four mile distance was large enough to encompass all industrial areas in the City of Edmonton, Today, however, an estimated 5,630 acres of industrial land are beyond the interswitching limits. Since, 3,200 acres of this land is vacant and undeveloped at the present time, the impact of this problem has only begun to be felt.
Industrial land that is currently beyond the four-
mile interswitching limits is illustrated on Figure 14.
In 1972, City Council called upon City Commissioners to initiate negotiations with the railroads to solve this problem. The City Planning Department is currently working with the Commission Board and Provincial officials to review the situation and determine the best course of action.
Legend Interchange point Four mile interswitching limit
EDMONTON AREA RAILWAY INTERSWITCHING LIMITS 1973 Source: Canadian National Railways
Industrial Outline Plan areas Industrial land beyond four mile limit (estimate)
Figure 14
156
G. An "Action" Planning Program for Industrial Land
Action has already been taken on some of the factors contributing to the shortage of serviced industrial land. The vital trunk sewer to the North-West Industrial Area is under construction, background work on the railway interswitching problem is underway, and the completion of industrial outline plans is a priority for 1973 in the City Planning Department. The problems that result from fragmented landownership are basic to the Edmonton land market and cannot be solved by special policies and programs, although programs may be tailored to minimize their effect.
With a strong demand for industrial land projected during the 1970's however, it is recommended that industrial land planning be undertaken specifically to avoid the recurrence of the problem. Due to the current short supply this is especially important for the next few years.
If "action"
planning programs are undertaken to plan the staging of services and industrial land development in advance of need, problems can be minimized in the future. This is especially important for minimizing the effect of the fragmented landownership patterns.
The type of "action" planning recommended is complementary to the general industrial land planning that is currently undertaken by the City Planning Department. Utilizing information concerning landownership patterns and the views of industrial land owners regarding land servicing and development, alternative staging plans would be developed for review.
In this
way the City could become an advocate for industrial land,
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servicing land in advance of need, in appropriate locations rather than merely responding to pressure from landowners. If difficulties with individual landowners arise, alternative staging patterns would have already been identified.
The steps in developing an "action" planning program for industrial land development might include the following activities: 1.
Review of information on land ownership patterns and views of landowners toward servicing;
2.
Identification of land problems and existing servicing limitations; Identification of an industrial land servicing goal for the particular industrial area in question, based upon land demand projections and the servicing goal established for the City as a whole;
4.
Identification of alternative staging plans for servicing and development;
5.
Evaluation of alternative strategies, with assistance of a policy committee or the Municipal Planning Commission;
6.
Preparation of a network diagram (and responsibilities of each department) for reaching the goal;
7
Presentation of proposed "action" plan to Commission Board and City Council for approval.
Through this planning process, the industrial areas most suitable and ready for industrial land servicing and development would be identified, hence maximizing the investment of the City in industrial land services and increasing the supply of available industrial land.
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An important tool in developing action plans is flexibility to extend services beyond the limits of existing development. Due to the investment required, this has been done only in special instances in the past.
It should be noted, however,
that whenever the City installs major trunk sewer facilities it makes a heavy investment in land services since the expense is not usually recovered until the land is developed. The appropriate extension of land services beyond existing development may be a catalyst for industrial land development and in fact help recover some of the investment in the trunk sewer facilities.
The length of time needed to develop an action strategy and program for each industrial area will vary with the problems present and the additional information needed. In some outline plan areas, it may be necessary to develop several programs. Because of the pressing nature of the land problem, however, research should proceed as rapidly as possible, with six months as a maximum time period for any industrial area. It is expected that this advance planning for the staging of servicing and industrial development will be especially useful for budgeting major public improvements.
In view of land ownership patterns, existing development, and available land services "action" plans should be developed for industrial areas in the following order of priority:
1. South Industrial Area 2. South-East Industrial Area 3. North-West Industrial Area 4. North-East Industrial Area
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Background research for the "action" plans could be initiated prior to the final completion of outline plans.
It is important that the planning work and identification of alternatives remain the responsibility of the City Planning Department. In developing alternatives, however, the full cooperation among all departments involved including City Planning, Industrial Land Program, Business Development, Realty Development Office, Water and Sanitation, and Property and Building Management will be required. This proposal would require the full support of the affected Departments to provide information on a priority basis at least until an ample supply of serviced industrial land is available.
When problems, opportunities, and feasible alternatives have been identified (perhaps with preliminary evaluations completed) the information would be presented to the Municipal Planning Commission for review and evaluation. The proposed network diagram for implementing the "action" plan for servicing would also be a management tool for coordinating and guiding the efforts of each department involved toward a common objective. The success of the action plans will depend upon the cooperation of all departments involved as well as the ingenuity of staff members in developing feasible alternatives.
H. City industrial Land Purchase Program
The City of Edmonton has in the past had a small inventory of industrial land available to interested persons on a first-
160-
come first-served basis.
If a party is interested in pur-
chasing a particular parcel, a letter of request is sufficient to hold the land for a two-week period. During this time, the interested persons submits a formal application to purchase the land (including site plan, elevation plans, type of development, size, and estimated cost) to the Property and Building Management Department and the Economic Affairs Committee of City Council for review. Because the City is interested in using City-owned land to benefit the City as a whole through the tax base, a building cost of $50,000 per acre is required. It is also required that building construction begin within a six month period following the sale of the land, unless unusual circumstances exist. Reflecting these restrictions, City industrial land is usually sold twenty percent below market value. At the present time, the City has very little industrial land available for purchase, although $2,200,000 was credited into a City land inventory in 1972.
An enlarged industrial land bank could be a useful supplement to the private market. The City could use such a fund on a revolving basis to facilitate replotting procedures, assist individial firms in emergency situations, and encourage industrial development which benefits the City as a whole.
(4)
A detailed
study of City industrial land purchasing policies is currently being undertaken by the Property and Building Management Department in cooperation with the Industrial Land Program.
(4)
The City of Calgary has an extensive industrial land program, where land is bought, developed by the City, and sold directly to industries. Approximately sixty percent of all industrial land development in Calgary is carried out by the City government. The staff work is carried out by a development team, recently centralized in the Land Department. The project is completely self-supporting financially. It should be noted that the Calgary land situation is very different from Edmonton's because fairly large parcels of industrial land are available at reasonable prices. The City of Calgary includes a large amount of undeveloped land within its boundaries and fragmentation of ownership is not a major problem.
- 161 If the recent entry of private developers into the industrial land market does not make sufficient serviced land available in the near future, the possibility of direct City involvement in industrial land development should be explored.
1.
Recommendations for Alleviating the Shortage of Serviced Industrial Land
As identified in this chapter, it is important that the City of Edmonton undertake a coordinated program for the staging and servicing of industrial land if the suggested goal of 234 gross acres (180 net acres) of serviced industrial land per year is to be met.
In order to implement an effective program, the follow-
ing recommendations are suggested: 1. that the planning and servicing of industrial land be given top priority by the Civic Administration until the supply of serviced industrial land is increased to a satisfactory level; 2.
that alternative servicing and land development "action" plans be prepared to provide maximum flexibility in the staging of industrial growth and that the preparation and coordination of these "action" plans be the designated responsibility of the Planning Department with other departments requested to assist in the development of these plans on a top priority basis.
3.
that the extension of utility services bypassing potential land for industry be used as a tool to increase the supply of available serviced industrial land.
4.
that the existing industrial land inventory held by the City be increased in order to facilitate replot procedures, assist industrial firms in finding suitable locations and encourage industrial development which benefits the City as a whole.
- 162 These recommendations for alleviating the current serviced industrial land shortage are a supplement to the recommendations for industrial land planning and research identified in Chapter IV.
In brief there are positive actions which the City of Edmonton may undertake to alleviate the current shortage of serviced industrial land. It is imperative, however, that strong efforts be undertaken immediately.
If a dynamic process of
decision-making and implementation is not carried out the City of Edmonton may continue to face a shortage of serviced industrial land. Future industrial development in Edmonton can be strong if the City of Edmonton makes it possible through an adequate supply of serviced industrial land.
APPENDIX I INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES AND PRINCIPLES CITY OF EDMONTON GENERAL PLAN — OFFICE CONSOLIDATION Objectives for Industrial Development
Principles for Industrial Development
1. To promote the achievement of a diversified or
1. The export of goods and services should be
balanced industrial mix which will provide a
encouraged to develop a stable, healthy and
variety of employment opportunities, to provide greater cyclical stability and broaden the tax
growing economy. Regional and national markets should be sought for goods produced
base of the community.
locally.
2. To draw industrial development to Metropolitan
2. The strength of the local industrial sector is
Edmonton by creating a sound and
dependent on the provision of a number of
advantageous environment for industry.
factors, which form part of the "inputs" (land, labor, capital) of the firm. The City should
3. To ensure that there are adequate reserves of
ensure the provision of:
industrial land for all anticipated requirements, and particularly for heavy industry.
(a)An adequate Transportation System Transportation facilities linking local in-
4. To protect and, if possible, enhance the
dustrial development with local, regional
locational advantages of industrial expansion in
and national markets, with sources of
Edmonton, re: regional and national trans-
raw materials and ancillary industry.
portation connections, a skilled labour force and the provision of municipal services at
(b)Industrial Land - Sufficient land should
reasonable cost, especially the low cost of
be available in industrial parks, estates or
natural gas.
other industrial areas at suitable locations in a variety of parcel sizes, with the
5. To publicize the industrial development opportunities available through sponsorship Of
desired combination of services, utilities and transport facilities.
industrial development conferences, advertisements and other promotional means.
(c)Public Utilities and Services - In addition to the labour, land, plant and raw
6. To recognize and plan for the changing trans-
materials, the cost of utility services can
portation patterns which will make Edmonton
be a significant portion of total costs of
the dominant distribution and marketing centr'e
manufacturing. The adequacy of the
for western Canada. In the past, Edmonton has
water supply and present low cost of
been removed from the main commercial traffic
electrical power and natural gas should be
routes for the distribution and trucking of
safeguarded to maintain Edmonton's ad-
goods. However, with the completion of the
vantageous competitive position.
more economical Yellowhead Route to Vancouver and the anticipated completion in
(d)Labour Force - Employers require persons
the early 1970's of a highway connecting
with varied skills and training ranging
Edmonton to Prince George and the port of
from the unskilled (a declining segment
Prince Rupert, Edmonton will be the only city
of the labour force) to the highly skilled
in western Canada with direct access to two
and university trained. Changes in tech-
major seaports and thus, with its already
nology, automation and more sophis-
excellent rail and air facilities, assume the
ticated inter-firm competitiveness will
dominant role as western Canada's distribution
require that job skills of the City's labour
centre.
force be continually upgraded and expanded.
161k 3. Wise and careful resource development in the Edmonton region should be encouraged since this directly contributes to the continued growth and
stability of many local
districts with attractively designed buildings and good standards of site development including landscape treatment of visible yards and parking areas.
manufacturing enterprises. 4. Industry should be diligently sought out and
8. Effective screening of unsightly storage yards should be provided.
the opportunities that exist for industry in Edmonton should be made known without promiscuous subsidization or the offering of other financial incentives.
9. Greater emphasis should be given to the provision, in industrial areas, of buffers and boulevards attractively maintained with trees, shrubs and grass.
5. The City should particularly encourage those industries that: broaden and diversify the economic base utilize the local market, thereby reducing
10. Industry should be separated from residential or public areas by
the provision of buffer
zones. Where the application of buffering seems
imports to the area
inappropriate, development could be graded
fortify the City against severe cyclical and
by zoning from heavier to lighter types of
seasonal fluctuations
industry to non-industrial uses.
have a high degree of employment stability use or further process locally available raw
11. To prevent the encroachment on industrial land
or semi-processed materials
by incompatible and restrictive non-industrial
provide employment opportunities for those
uses.
people presently unable to find employment, especially the handicapped and the older segment of the labour force are functionally interdependent and financially independent
12. To remove isolated pockets of industrial development if surrounded by other uses more appropriate for the area. Alternatively, obsolete housing and other undesirable uses in industrial areas should be cleared and the land
6. Historically, the location of industrial land has
re-developed for industrial or related uses.
been greatly influenced by railroad facilities. Present day industrial land planning principles differ in that more emphasis is placed on:
13. The City should have in reserve a number of parcels of industrial land which could be made available, at reasonable cost, to industry dis-
the ready accessibility of the local and
located as a• result of construction of freeways
regional highway network_
and other roadways, rapid transit facilities or
the effect that industry will have on adjacent
urban renewal projects.
land uses the minimization of the time - distance of the employees' journey to work
14. The following pattern of industrial land use is suggested in applying the above principles:
suitable topographic characteristics requiring a minimum of grading or filling, good
industries which require large parcels of
drainage and stable soil conditions
land and which may be obnoxious or
the economical extension of utilities and
dangerous would locate in the industrial
other services for industry
expansion area east and northeast of
the minimization of grade level road and
Edmonton. Prevailing winds will carry
railroad crossings
obnoxious odors away from the City; outlets
the provision of industrial areas of a size
for industrial sewage will be downstream
adequate to permit related firms to be located
adjacent to each other
from the City. In addition, the natural buffering of this industrial area by the River Valley makes it particularly suitable
7. Encouragement should be given to the provision of planned high amenity industrial
for the suggested uses. — the prevailing wind direction which blows
- 165 towards large areas of housing in this City and St. Albert and various proposals for greenbelt and major park development would suggest that development in the northwest area be limited to industry presenting no pollution problems. — appropriate land uses for vacant area adjacent to existing establishments emitting odors should be chosen with care. At the same time, methods of minimizing the detrimental effects of obnoxious emissions by industries should be pursued with greater visour than in the past. No industry should be able to sterilize large tracts of land around it because they produce obnoxious odors. — aircraft or air transport oriented industry should have priority in developing land at the Industrial Airport. industry in the Central Area should be discouraged unless it is directly tied to the function of downtown and is otherwise not obnoxious or incompatible with other central uses. 15. Zoning provisions for objective performance standards should be implemented. These should outline the maximum allowable limits of the following objectionable or dangerous conditions: noise, smoke, dust and other particulate matter, odor, gas (toxic and non-toxic), glare, waste, humidity, electromagnetic interference and radiation.
16. Industrial research regarding the opportunities for new industries or the expansion of existing establishment within the Edmonton area and the possibilities of export of locally manufactured goods should be undertaken. Analyses of the needs of industry (land, labour, utilities and other services) would also be part of the program to encourage industrial development. 17. To enhance Edmonton's position in western Canada as an industrial centre and to enable the present and proposed industries in the City to adequately develop and remain competitive, plans should be formulated for an industrial research park composed of independently operated, industrially oriented research and development laboratories. Such a facility would permit contact and joint use of facilities such as computers by experts in an increased number of scientific and technical fields. The industrial research park should be located on an attractive site which is easily accessible to existing facilities such as the University of Alberta and the Alberta Research Council. 18. Joint railway service must be provided to all new industrial areas wherever it is physically possible to do so and only those areas treated by the railway companies as being within the interswitching limits should be developed for industrial uses.
APPENDIX II
SUMMARY OF INDUSTRIAL LAND INVENTORY JANUARY, 1973
(see Chapter II for Table summarizing the statistics detailed in this Appendix.)
Since January, 1970, the City of Edmonton Planning Department has conducted an annual survey to determine the amount of vacant land that was designated for industrial development (see Industrial Lot Count, October 31, 1972). However, experience has shown that "vacancy" does not necessarily reflect "availability" and a revised format was suggested to determine the availability of public and privately owned industrial land.
This report is an inventory of vacant industrial land in the three major industrial sectors of the City of Edmonton. The summary descriptions list land by the degree of services which adjoin the property and the availability of the property if information is available. Attempts were made to report on the availability of all vacant industrial land in the City but information could only be obtained for approximately seventy-five percent of the vacant land reported.
Information on the availability of industrial land was collected from the City Property and Building Management Department for City owned land and through interviews with industrial realtors for privately owned land. It should be noted that availability statistics gathered with this method cover only the parcels familiar to the realtors, leaving a
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number of privately owned parcels unaccounted for since owners were not contacted directly. The City owned land is accounted for completely.
North-West Sector
The North-West Sector had a total of 725 acres of industrial land vacant on January 1st,
1973.
Of this total, approximately
250 acres were unsubdivided and unserviced while 300 acres were subdivided into various unsuitable areas and were unserviced. The remaining 175 acres were in the active industrial zone with 102 acres being fully serviced and 72 acres partly serviced.
PRIVATELY OWNED LAND
Serviced:
Total of 83.4 acres
(1) Available - with restrictions (17 23.7 acres acres require resubdivision) (2) Available on a lease basis or "build 7.5 acres to suit tenant" 37.5 acres (3) Not available 14.6 acres (4) No information on availability
(28%) (10%) (45%) (17%)
83.4 acres Partly Serviced: (1) Available (2) Available in 1973, when fully serviced (3) Not available (4) No information on availability
Total of 62.5 acres 2.5 acres
( 4.0% )
24.6 acres 1.0 acres 34.4 acres
(39.5%) ( 1.5%) (55%)
62.5 acres
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PRIVATELY OWNED LAND
Serviced:
Total of 15.7 acres
(1) Not available (2) No information on availability
8.9 acres 10.8 acres
(45%) (55%)
15.7 acres
Partly Serviced:
(I) (2)
Not available No information on availability (one 20-acres parcel under one ownership may be available on a lease basis)
Total of 25.7 acres 1.4 acres
( 5.5%)
24.3 acres
(94.5%)
25.7 acres
PUBLICLY OWNED LAND
Serviced:
Total of 11.5 acres
(1) Not available until freeway alignment finalizes
11.5 acres
Partly Serviced:
Total of 25.4 acres
(1) Not available until freeway alignment finalized
25.4 acres
IN THE NORTH-EAST SECTOR, DATA ON THE AVAILABILITY OF INDUSTRIAL LAND WERE GATHERED FOR 65% OF THE VACANT SERVICED LAND AND 52% OF THE PARTLY SERVICED LAND. THIS INFORMATION SHOWS THAT THERE IS NO AVAILABLE LAND FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THE PRESENT TIME.
- 1 69PUBLICLY OWNED LAND Serviced: (1) Available by tender (2) Not available for reasons of options, roadway alignments, replotting schemes and municipal purposes
Total of 19.4 acres 3.8 acres
(19.6%)
15.6 acres
(80.4%)
19.4 acres Partly-Serviced: (1) Available in 1973 (2) Available after reserve hearings
Total of 10.0 acres 9.0 acres 1.0 acres
(90%) (10%)
10.0 acres
THESE STATISTICS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE BASICALLY ONLY SIX PARCELS (10.3 ACRES) AVAILABLE TO A DEVELOPER AND TWO PARCELS (7.5 ACRES) AVAILABLE ON A LEASE BASIS, IN THE NORTHWEST SECTOR.
NORTH-EAST SECTOR
In the North-East Sector there are 147 acres of vacant industrial land of which 31.0 acres are serviced and 51.0 acres are partly serviced. Private ownership accounts for 19.7 acres (63%) of the serviced land and 25.7 acres (502) of the partly serviced land. The remainder, publicly owned serviced and partly serviced land, is not available for industrial development at the present time.
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SOUTH-EAST SECTOR
Serviced and partly serviced vacant land within this sector amounts to 321.8 acres. Of the 206.8 serviced acres, approximately 151.0 acres (67%) are privately owned.
PRIVATELY OWNED LAND
Serviced: (1) (2) (3) (4)
Available Available only on a lease basis Not available No information on availability
Total of 151.0 acres 23.7 37.0 50.2 40.1
acres acres acres acres
(15.7%) (24.5%) (33.2%) (26.6%)
151.0 acres
Partly Serviced: (1) Available (2) Not available (3) No information on availability
Total of 104.0 acres 51.8 acres 13.2 acres 39.0 acres
(49.8%) (12.7%) (37.5%)
104.0 acres
PUBLICLY OWNED LAND Serviced: Available Available after reserve hearings Available after creek fill-in Not available (under options to purchase) (5) Not available for municipal purposes) (6) Not available (freeway alignments) (1) (2) (3) (4)
Total of 55.8 acres 6.6 acres 9.8 acres 8.3 acres
(11.8%) (17.6%) (14.8%)
6.3 acres
(11.3%)
15.3 acres 9.8 acres
(26.9%) (17.6%)
55.8 acres
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Partly Serviced:
(I) (2)
Available after services completed Not available (replotting schemes)
Total of 11.0 acres
2.0 acres 9.0 acres 11.0 acres
IN THE SOUTH-EAST SECTOR, INFORMATION INDICATES THAT A TOTAL OF 30.0 ACRES (12 PARCELS) OF SERVICED LAND ARE AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THESE PARCELS ARE AVAILABLE AT HIGH PRICES.
Summary and Conclusions
The survey of available industrial land included information on approximately 79 percent of the vacant land reported in the City of Edmonton. The total amount of vacant serviced and partly serviced industrial land is estimated to be 579.4 acres. Approximately 415 acres were investigated in this survey and it is estimated that only 40.6 acres (18 parcels) of fully serviced and 54.3 acres (16 parcels) of partly serviced land are immediately available for industrial development. Another 44.5 acres are available on a lease basis. No attempt was made to contact the owners of the remaining 163 acres to determine its availability but it is estimated that no more than one-half of this is available for development at a reasonable price.
Through interviews with industrial real estate agents and developers it has been observed that the price of industrial land in the City has inflated greatly during the last few years as a result of the short supply of land. Prime serviced industrial lots that formerly sold between $25,000 and $35,000 per acre
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now command prices as high as $40,000 to $60,000 per acre. Similarly, inside lots which formerly sold between $17,000 and $25,000 per acre now sell for $20,000 to $30,000 per acre. Discussions with personnel from the Property and Building Management Department confirm this escalation in the price of serviced industrial land.
This review can only conclude that the availability of serviced vacant land within industrially zoned areas is in very short supply. Furthermore, the price of the available vacant serviced industrial land is being inflated as a result of this short supply situation.
Prepared by: Ethel Weisbeck Planning Assistant
City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch March, 1973
APPENDIX III
A NOTE OF EXPLANATION ON 1970 EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES
At the time of writing, detailed information from the 1971 Census of Canada was not available for Edmonton Metropolitan Area labour force and employment. Through a special survey, however, large firm employment data was available. (1) This was also used as a basis for estimating 1970 employment. (2)
There are two major limitations in the large firm survey; (1) employment figures are incomplete since they only include firms employing twenty persons or more; and (2) the service component of the survey excludes education and related services, health and welfare services, religious organizations, private household employment, public administration, and defense. These limitations were overcome by assuming that the ratio of large firm employment in each industry of total employment in the same industry has remained constant from 1961 to 1970, and by assuming that the ratio of service employment as defined by the large firm survey to total service employment has remained constant from 1961 to 1970.
Because labour force statistics, rather than employment statistics for individual industrial categories were reported in the 1961 Census, additional assumptions were necessary to obtain an estimate of 1961 employment by industry. To obtain employment estimates, it was assumed that the 1961
(1) Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Employment and Average Weekly Wages and Salaries, 1970-1971, Cat. No. 72-002. Actual employmelit statistics by detailed manufacturing category were available for 1961 and 1970. Therefore it was not necessary to estimate total manufacturing employment.
- 174 -
total unemployment rate applied uniformly to all industrial categories. While it is known that unemployment rates vary significantly among industrial categories, sufficient information to estimate these varying unemployment rates was not available. (3)
Following the computation of estimated 1961 employment by major categories the following calculations were made:
1970 large firm employment
1961 large firm x employment index
(1) 1961 large firm employment
1970 large firm employment index
(1961=100)
1970 large firm employment x 1961 total
(2) 1970 total employment 1961 large firm employment
employment
Because there was no large firm data for the employment categories of "primary" and "other unclassified," estimates were made from other information, especially interviews with knowledgeable persons concerning trends in Edmonton. The resulting estimates for 1970 employment in the categories of primary and other unclassified are not as accurate as the other estimates and should be used with caution.
These employment estimates are believed to be reasonable. One check is provided by the fact that actual manufacturing employment for 1970 is known. The estimated figure of 21,338
(3) Although information on national unemployment rates by industry was available for 1961, it was judged that rates in Edmonton were probably significantly different than Canada rates. The source of labour force data was Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1961 Census of Canada, Labour Force, Series 3-2, Bulletin 3.2-2, Metropolitan Part, Table 2. The unemployment rate for 1961 was calculated from Dominion Bureau of Statistics figures.
- 175 -
was only 1,100 persons higher than the known 1970 manufacturing employment total of 20,258. A second estimate for total employment, obtained by multiplying total population 15 years and over by the 1970 participation rate and subtracting the number of persons unemployed resulted in a figure of 199,652, five thousand persons lower than the estimate calculated by the above method. The employment figures should be corrected when actual 1971 employment data becomes available from the Census.
Table 28 An Estimate of Employment by Industry Metropolitan Edmonton, 1970 (1) 1961 Estimated Employment
1970 Large Firm Employment Index (1961=100)
1961 Large Firm Employment (actual)
n.i. 18,830 9,018 14,209 23,130 5,384 13,640 n.i.
n.i. 126.2 143.4 158.9 132.6 157.6 198.4 n.i.
n. i . 14,920 6,284 8,942 17,443 3,416 6,875 n.i.
4,201 16,907 12,037 14,172 26,802
n.i. 88.2 52.2 63.1 65.1
5,293 44,757 3,116
64.6 15.4
n.i.
n.i.
n.i.
127,285
Industry Primary Manufacturing Construction Transportation Trade Finance Service (3) Other Unclassified
TOTAL
1961 1970 Large Firm Estimated Employment Employment as a percent of 1961 Estimated Employment
1970 Large Firm Employment (actual)
6,169 20,258 (2) 17,274 22,520
n.i.
35,540 8,342 88,798 6,731
n.i.
205,632
n.i. = no information (1) 1961 Census Metropolitan Area boundaries used. (2) This is the actual employment total for manufacturing in 1970, not an estimate. (3) The "service" category for large firm employment does not include education and related services, health and welfare services, religious organizations, private household employment, public administration, and defense. The 1961 and 1970 employment estimates, however, do include these categories.