Edmonton (Alta.) - 1976 - Housing in Edmonton_directions for the future (1976-02) by Edmonton Tower Resource Centre Online Library

SD L BRARY

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3577

H010/0160/1976

HOUSING-IN-EDMONTON EDMONTON -PLANNING

NC )AO DIRECTIONS FOR THE FUTURE

T 71.

The Ci

:,:imenton

THE CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT RESEARCH REPORT NO.13 2535.1a .E3 E373 1976

FEBRUARY, 1976

H010 016(Y 1976 171 3924 DATE 1 OUT

H02,0 0160 1976

HOUSING IN EDMONTON - Directions for the future, Feb. 1976 Edmonton. Planning NAME

PHONE No.

DATE IN '

A.C. 3577

HOUSING IN EDMONTON: DIRECTIONS FOR THE FUTURE

City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch Research Report No. 13 February, 1976

Second Printing, July, 1976

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF APPENDICES

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS

CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION 1.1

History

1.2

Terms of Reference

1.3

Format

1.4

Scope

CHAPTER 2 - HOUSING DEMAND IN THE EDMONTON REGION 2.1

Introduction

2.2

The Household as the Basis of Housing Demand

Future Population Growth The Distribution of Future Households Among Stages in the Life Cycle Non-Demographic Factors Influencing the Propensity to Form a Household Alternate Dwelling Allocations

2.21 2.22 2.23 2.24 2.3 2.31 2.311 2.312 2.313 2.314 2.315 2.4 2.41 2.42 2.43 2.431 2.432

2.5 2.51 2.52

Growth in the Number of Households Changes in the Number of Households Effect of Migration Analysis of the Rate of Increase in Households Implications Total Requirements Long Term Trends Household Characteristics Trends in Type of Household Age of Head Household Size Implications of Changes in Household Size For Dwelling Demand Implications of Changes in Household Size for School Planning Dwelling Unit Projections Alternate Projections Relationship of Dwelling Requirements and Supply

27 27 28 29 29 30 31 33 33 34 35 36 36 37 37 40 41 41 44

2 CHAPTER 3 - HOUSING SUPPLY IN THE EDMONTON SUB-REGION

Page

3.1

Introduction

3.2

Condition of Housing Stock

3.21 3.22 3.23 3.3 3.31 3.32 3.33

3.4 3.41 3.42 3.5 3.51 3.52 3.53 3.54 3.55

Impact of Substandard Conditions Impact of Overcrowding Conclusions Regarding Substandard Conditions The Single Family Dwelling Market Trends in Single Family Dwelling Prices Total Cost of Home Ownership Trends in the Components of Single Family Dwelling The Multiple Family Dwelling Market Trends in Dwelling Rents Trends in Multiple Family Dwelling Prices Net Expansion of the Housing Stock Current Trends Factors Influencing Starts Short Term Supply Estimates Housing Mix Demolitions

51 51 51 52 52 53 55 56 57 57 58 58 59 62 62 62

CHAPTER 4 - HOUSING NEED IN THE CITY OF EDMONTON 4.1

Introduction

4.2

Definition

4.3

Income Distribution

4.31 4.32 4.33 4.34

Income and Age Senior Citizens Single Parent Families with Female Head Non-Family Households

66 68 68 69

4.4

Income Versus Housing Expenditure: Rents

4.5

Need for Rental Assistance by Housing Type

4.6

Income Versus Housing Expenditure: Ownership

The Affordability of Current Stock Assisted Home Ownership Program Alternative Forms of Ownership

73 75 75

4.61 4.62 4.63 4.7

Summary

4.8

The Extent of Government Intervention

CHAPTER 5 - SUB-REGIONAL PATTERNS IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING 5.1

Introduction

5.2

The City and the Sub-Region

3 Page 5.3

Household Distribution in the City of Edmonton .

. . 80

5.4

The Distribution of Population Growth in the City

. . 88

5.5

Alternatives for the Distribution of Future Population Growth in the City

CHAPTER 6 - HOUSING POLICY IN EDMONTON 6.1

Introduction

6.2

Current Housing Policies

6.21 6.22 6.23 6.24 6.25 6.3 APPENDICES

General Plan Joint Submission to the Provincial Government. Report of the Housing Task Force Other Policy Documents and Decisions Conclusion Summary of Conclusions

97 98 98 99 100 100

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1

Page Edmonton Subregion, 1975.

Housing Demand Projections, Overview of Methodology.

Average Annual Rate of Growth of Population and Number of Households in the Edmonton Sub-region Over Preceding Five Years 1961 - 1986.

Propensities to Fo a Family Households by Age of Head in Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961 1986.

Propensities to Form Non-Family Households by Age of Head in Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961 to 1986.

Average Annual Increase in Number of Households by Age of Head, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area to 1971, and Edmonton Sub-region Over Preceding Five Years to 1986.

Trends in Household Type by Age of Head, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area 1961 to 1986.

Trends in Distribution of Household Heads by Age Within Household Type, 1961 to 1986.

Trends in Household Size, 1966, 1971 and 1981, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area.

Average Household Size, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961 to 2001.

Average Household Size by Age of Head, 1966 to 1981, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area and Sub-region.

Simple Projection of Dwelling Unit Propensities by Type and Age of Household Head 1981, 1986, Edmonton Sub-Region.

Tenure of Households, by Age of Head, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961 to 1981.

Modified Projection of Dwelling Unit Propensities by Type and Age of Household Head 1981, 1986, Edmonton Sub-Region.

Current Housing Stock and Required Construction in the Edmonton Sub-Region to 1981 (Method I and Method II).

5 Page

Figure 16

Distribution of Housing Stock 1961 to 1986, Edmonton Sub-Region.

Measures of Substandard Conditions in Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area 1971.

Distribution of Dwelling Prices, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961, 1971, Edmonton Area 1975.

Changes in the Cost of Housing - Selected Components, 1961 - 1975.

Estimated Trends in the Cost of New Single Family Dwellings, 1965 - 1974.

Average Rate of Household Increase, and Housing Starts, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961 - 1975 Showing National Conventional Mortgage Interest Rates.

Average Numbers of Housing Starts and Estimated Rates of Household Increase, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area 1966 - 1975. Cumulative Percentage Distribution of Annual Household Income, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961, 1971, 1975. Distribution of Family Households by Income Quintile and Age of Head, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1971.

Distribution of Families by 1970 Income Group of Head, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1970.

Households Overpaying for Rent, City of Edmonton, 1971.

City of Edmonton Starts as a Percentage of Starts in the Census Metropolitan Area 1962 - 1974.

Non-Family Households as a Percentage of Total Households by Census Tract, Edmonton, 1971.

Apartments as a Percent of Occupied Dwelling Units by Census Tract, Edmonton, 1971.

Family Households as a Percent of Total Households, by Census Tract - Edmonton, 1971.

Single Family Dwellings as a Percent of Occupied Dwelling Units, by Census Tract - Edmonton, 1971.

6 Figure 32

Page Row Housing as a Percent of Occupied Dwelling Units, by Census Tract - Edmonton, 1971.

Residential Areas of Edmonton.

Population Change in Edmonton, 1971 - 1975.

Population Growth, 1971 - 1975.

Residential Development in the Outline Plan Areas and Outer Suburbs as of June 30, 1975.

Relative Shares of Development in the Outline Plan Areas, 1971 - 1975.

Projected Distribution of Growth in the Outline Plan Areas 1975 - 1986.

LIST OF APPENDICES

Appendix 1

Terms of Reference, November, 1974

Appendix 2

Initial TeLms of Reference, June, 1973

Appendix 3

Housing Demand: Technical Methodology

Appendix 4

Dwelling Unit Allocation Projection: Technical Methodology

Appendix 5

Housing Demand - Tables 1 - 28

Appendix 6

Housing Supply - Tables 29 - 45

Appendix 7

Housing Need - Tables 46 - 56

Appendix 8

Regional and City Land Demand Estimates to 1981 and 2001 - Tables 57 - 66

Appendix 9

External Projections of Households and Dwellings for Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area Tables 67-69.

Appendix 10

Background Notes to Federal Housing Action Program, November, 1975.

GLOSSARY

TERMS

ATTRITION RATE

The rate at which the housing stock is depleted primarily through demolitions.

BUSINESS CYCLE

The fluctuations in productivity and real incomes characteristic of any economy. Although there is some speculation that business cycles may be levelling out, the Canadian economy still experiences annual fluctuations in interest rates, housing starts and other economic indicators as a result of the dynamic nature of the economy.

COHORT

A group of people born in the same period.

COHORT-SURVIVAL PROJECTION

A method of forecasting population by age and sex groups by applying age-specific death rates, birth rates and migration rates to the current population.

DWELLING*

Refers to a structurally separate set of living quarters with a private entrance from outside or from a common hallway or stairway inside the building, i.e., the entrance must not be through someone else's living quarters. In this study, data refers to occupied dwellings unless otherwise specified. Institutional housing is not included.

DWELLING ALLOCATION

The theoretical distribution of households into dwellings of different structural types.

DWELLING UNIT PROPENSITIES

The proportion of an age-cohort of household heads which can be expected to demand a particular structural type of dwelling.

DWELLING TYPES*: SINGLE DETACHED/SINGLE FAMILY DWELLINGS

SINGLE ATTACHED (also referred to as "ROW" in Study)

* Federal Census Definition

This type is commonly called a "single house". A structure with only one dwelling, separated by open space from all other structures except its own garage or shed. This category includes dwelling units separated by a common wall extending from ground to roof. Single attached dwellings in structures consisting of only two dwelling units are classified as single attached (double). All other single attached dwellings, whether in rows of three or more dwellings, or simply a unit adjoining a store or other non residential structure, are classified as single attached (other).

9 APARTMENTS

These dwellings are also subdivided into two categories. Apartment (duplex) refers to each dwelling in its structure originally designed, or structurally converted, to provide two dwelling units, one above the other and adjoining no other structure. Apartment (other) includes all dwellings of the apartment-type other than duplex-type mentioned above.

MOBILE

A movable dwelling used as a permanent home, but constructed to be transported (e.g. domestic mobile home, trailer, houseboat, etc.). If placed on a permanent foundation, it is considered (for census purposes) to be a "single detached house".

DEMAND (HOUSING)

The amount and mix of housing units which households are willing to purchase or rent, at current market prices.

EFFECTIVE DEMAND

Demand supplied by the market.

INEFFECTIVE DEMAND

Essential housing requirements that cannot be supplied by the market due to inadequate purchasing power of individual households (need

EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA

The Metropolitan Area of the City as defined by the Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1971 and Statistics Canada, 1975 (See Figure 1).

EDMONTON SUB-REGION

That portion of the Edmonton hinterland which serves as a labor and housing market area. (See Figure 1). The "fringe is that portion of the sub-region outside the City boundaries.

FILTERING

Refers to the process by which housing stock is redistributed among households in the subregion. Studies have indicated strong trends in the manner in which the filtering process operates in a City, which suggests that the stock itself has a life cycle reflective of the stages through which the population pass. For example, a new subdivision of modest housing is usually occupied by young, newly formed, family households. As the households age, the neighborhood tends to attract people in the same stage of the life cycle. When the children leave home the housing stock will often change hands, passing either to young family households, to repeat its cycle, to older non-family households, or to landlords who will rent the stock to young non-family households.

* Federal Census Definition

10 HOUSEHOLD

A person or group of persons occupying one dwelling.

HOUSEHOLD TYPE*

Refers to the basic division of households into family and non-family households.

FAMILY HOUSEHOLD*

Refers to a household containing at least one census family. A census family consists of a husband and wife (with or without children who have never been married, regardless of age) or a parent with one or more children never married, living in the same dwelling. A family may consist also, of a man or woman living with a guardianship child or ward under 21 years for whom no pay is received.

NON-FAMILY HOUSEHOLD*

Refers to one person living alone in a dwelling or to a group of persons, occupying one dwelling, who do not constitute a census family.

HOUSEHOLD FORMATION

Refers to the net change in the number of households between two given years. This net change is the difference between new households created and households dissolved.

HOUSEHOLD FORMATION RATE (PROPENSITY TO FORM A HOUSEHOLD)

Refers to the ratio of households to total population and indicates the tendency of the population to divide into households.

HOUSING

In this report, the term housing is used to refer to the overall stock of dwelling units in the City or the Sub-Region. The stock is evaluated in terms of its current and projected distribution among households, and in terms of its quality.

INCOME

The Census of Canada requires that all income earned during the year be reported, including employment and investment income, transfer payments, and pensions.

INCOME QUINTILE*

Compiled by ranking weighted survey returns in ascending order by size of total income in current dollars and dividing them into five equal parts or groups, or quintiles.

INNER CITY INNER SUBURBS OUTER SUBURBS

This study defines these areas by census tract, according to when the majority of the census tract was developed. Refer to Figure 33 in Chapter 5.

LIFE CYCLE

The stages through which individuals progress during their lives, from childhood through household formation, marriage, childbearing, to

Federal Census Definition

11 children leaving home and ultimately death. In this study, the population's distribution among the stages of the life cycle is measured by three variables: age of the household head; type of household family or non-family; and size of the household. NEED (HOUSING)

Requirements defined by ineffective demand; i.e. the demand not capable of being supplied by the market. In this study, need is defined in terms of level of income and proportion of income spent on housing.

PERIOD OF CONSTRUCTION*

Refers to the completion date of the original building.

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

Refers to the process by which housing is created. Thus, the term covers both new construction in developing areas on the outskirts, and redevelopment in the presently developed area of Edmonton.

SUBSTANDARD

Is measured in this study, not by the physical condition of a dwelling, but rather by the lack of critical amenities. These amenities include: exclusive use of a flush toilet, exclusive use of a bath and running water. Overcrowding (number of persons per room) is also used as an indicator of substandard conditions.

SUPPLY (HOUSING)

The total number of dwelling units in the market.

TENURE* OWNED

RENTED

* Federal Census Definition

Refers to a dwelling which is owned by some member of the household. This term also includes a dwelling under separate individual ownership in any multiple dwelling structure. A dwelling is classified as owned even though it may be mortgaged. Refers to a dwelling which is not owned by any member of the household.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS - HOUSING IN EDMONTON: DIRECTIONS FOR THE FUTURE

PURPOSE: The purpose of the study was to undertake basic research from which the City might justify the need for annual assistance for subsidized housing from the senior levels of government. HISTORY: The Study was generated within the Administration, as a result of conclusions reached by the Housing Task Force in 1973. This Task Force was an ad hoc administrative body formed to review the conclusions of a housing policy study undertaken by students in the summer of 1972. Terms of reference were determined by the Planning Department and the Edmonton Community Housing Organization, now part of the Real Estate and Housing Department. TERMS OF REFERENCE: Terms of reference were reduced during the course of the study. Final issues for research were as follows: 1.

Trend analysis of supply and demand, identifying gaps and unmet needs (includes an analysis of housing prices and financial ability of consumers).

Analysis of total housing stock by type, dwelling characteristics, and over-crowding.

Estimates as to annual attrition rate through processes of rezoning, public works, and deterioration.

Rate of price escalation by factors (land, servicing, labor, money).

Projection of need for social housing by program under the National Housing Act.

Analysis of special problems of senior citizens.

Identification of the housing role being played by the inner city and the newly developing subdivisions.

Positive and negative effects upon supply by existing practices and policies.

SUMMARY OF APPROACH The Study determined that the terms of reference required analysis in five areas:

Demand (term of reference 1).

Supply (terms of reference 2, 3 and 4

Need (terms of reference 5 and 6).

Patterns in the location of housing (term of reference 7).

Policy alternatives (term of reference 8).

The methodology was therefore adapted to this approach, and constitutes a broad analysis of housing trends in the City of Edmonton and its subregion from 1961 to 1971, and forecasts to 1981 and 1986 of anticipated increases in the number of households.

OVERALL CONCLUSION This study has developed a considerable amount of information on demographic and housing characteristics of the Edmonton market area. The study has concluded that, although numerous statements have been adopted by Council with regard to housing, there is no comprehensive adopted statement as to the extent which this municipal government wishes to become actively involved in the housing market. This comprehensive statement should be developed by those Departments in the Administration which would implement it. Although this study makes no recommendations as to what the content of a comprehensive housing policy might be, a comprehensive policy should address itself to five areas: 1.

The extent of Government intervention in the market to influence amount and type of demand.

The extent of Government intervention in the market to influence the nature and amount of supply.

The nature of Government intervention to ease the hardships experienced by low income people unable to afford adequate housing.

The level of Government at which direct involvement in the housing market is desirable.

The location and form of residential development and redevelopment in the City of Edmonton.

These five areas are related to the terms of reference outlined previously. The presentation of the specific conclusions which follows will outline: The conclusions reached with respect to the particular term of reference; 2.

The implications of the conclusion with respect to potential problems; and

The implications of the conclusion with respect to policy alternatives available to the Municipal Government.

14 The municipal government currently has a range of alternatives open to it regarding the direction in which it might proceed in housing programs. Some of these are outlined in the remainder of this summary.

I. TERM OF REFERENCE jsL oj zuppey and demand, identiying gaps and unmet need6 (includez an anatyziz c) houzing ptice6 and iinanciat abititi

Tend

o,6 con6umeu). Conclusion:

1. - Supply, as measured by the annual number of housing starts, currently lags behind demand, as measured by the annual increase in the number of households. - In the period 1976 to 1986, annual construction targets for the Edmonton region will approach 10,000 units, higher than any previous target. - Demand is high for three reasons: the post-war baby boom is entering the stage of household formation; Edmontonians appear to reflect common Canadian values with respect to their desires for independence, privacy and housing type; and housing is viewed as an investment and hedge against inflation. - New additions to the housing stock lag primarily in the area of apartment development to fulfill the requirements of housing non-family households. In addition, there appears to be a shortage of family accommodation for lower middle income families who cannot afford to pay high proportions of their income over a long period of time towards housing.

Implication:

Range of Actions Possible:

To fulfill the requirements of the high rate of increase in the number of households, investment must continue to be channelled into the housing market. Evidence indicates however that by doing so, funds will be limited for investment in other sectors of the economy. - Educational programs on the cost of our present wants with regard to housing (municipal/provincial/ federal governments). - Educational programs on the benefits of alternative means of satisfying our housing wants municipal/ provincial/federal governments). - Fiscal measures to influence the attitudes of current consumers towards housing as an investment and hedge against inflation (federal government

15 - Fiscal measurements to increase production of multiple family accommodation - for example, amendments to the income tax act (federal government). - Incentives to builders for construction of modest housing (federal/provincial/municipal governments). Conclusion:

2. - Evidence indicates that a significant proportion of Edmontonians, both renters and home-owners, are paying more than a reasonable proportion of their income towards housing. - Renters: In 1971, in spite of high vacancy rates and the fact that rents were rising slowly compared to home-ownership costs, onequarter of all renting households in the City of Edmonton were paying more than 30% of their income on rent. - Home Owners: Indirect data derived from estimated distributions of house prices and household incomes, and discussions with lending institutions, indicate that the majority of current home purchasers in the Edmonton region are paying 30% to 35% of their income on mortgage payments.

Implication:

- Extrapolating present trends, Edmontonians must either continue to pay high proportions of their income towards housing or be content to accept less expensive alternatives.

Range of Actions Possible:

- Encouragement of innovative methods in construction and design of housing to reduce cost, through federal/provincial incentives and through municipal planning programs; implies that the City may need to amend its definition of "quality" development. - Formulation of building and design standards for multiple family development so that multiple family development becomes more attractive for long term occupancy by family households; that is, evidence indicates that the more "houselike" a dwelling is, the more attractive it is for longer term occupancy. - Encouragement of alternate forms of ownership and alternate means of providing housing, including "third sector" housing; for example, co-operative housing (federal/provincial/municipal governments).

16 - Provision of funds for servicing of land to increase supply and thus reduce pressure on prices (federal/provincial/municipal governments). Conclusion:

Implication:

Edmonton has sufficient land to accommodate nearly 70% of projected regional housing starts to the year 2001. Extrapolating present trends in housing demand, land will be used up relatively rapidly in the Edmonton region: an estimated 65 square miles of land could be absorbed for residential purposes in the region in the 30 year period 1971 to 2001. The present built-up area of Edmonton approximates 80 square miles.

Range of Actions Possible:

- The foimulation of a regional and municipal growth policy for the direction and form of residential development (provincial/regional/ municipal governments).

II. TERM OF REFERENCE AnaZyz,i.zo totat houzing ztock by type, doeaing choftactetizticz, oven.-cAmding, etc. Conclusions:

Compared with many Canadian cities, the data indicate that Edmontonians are relatively well housed.

An estimated 7,000 dwelling units could be structurally sub-standard in the City of Edmonton.

Over-crowding is not a significant problem in the City; approximately 1% of dwelling units could be described as severely over-crowded.

Implications:

In general, the standard of housing in Edmonton is very high at present.

Range of Actions Possible:

Development of specific programs geared to the special problems of sub-standard dwelling units.

111. TERM OF REFERENCE

Eztimatez az to annuat atttition /Late thnough piLocezzez 06 kezonin pubZic wokkz, etc. Conclusions:

Demolition is not a significant factor influencing the expansion of the total housing stock (330 per year in this City on average). However, by

17 the end of the decade, approximately 9,000 dwelling units could be reaching the end of their life expectancy.

IV.

Implications:

As the housing stock ages in the remaining years of this century, demolition could become a more significant factor in the net expansion of the housing stock.

Range of Actions Possible:

The development of specific municipal rehabilitation programs to assist in the rehabilitation of those dwelling units whose life can be economically extended. (e.g. municipal loans program - municipal and provincial governments).

TERM OF REFERENCE Rate o

pitLce. e6ca2at1on by 6actoA4 (and, 6m/icing, tabowL, money).

Conclusions:

The prices of existing housing appear to be rising in conjunction with the prices of new housing.

For single family dwellings, land and servicing costs are increasing the most rapidly (180%, 1965 to 1975, compared with 124% for construction costs). Construction costs, however, still account for the largest portion of the increase in absolute terms: over 60% of the total increase in an average house price from 1965 to 1974 is attributable to construction costs.

Implications:

Because of the apparent relationship between prices of new and existing housing, if new house costs can be reduced, there should be a spin-off effect on the costs of existing housing. Because construction costs are still the most significant portion of housing costs, efforts should begin within this sector.

Range of Actions Possible:

Intervention in market to influence supply (refer to suggested actions under (I) above).

V. TERM OF REFERENCE Pujection o.6 need 6oit zoc,i.at houzing by pkognam anden. the Nationat Hodzing Act. Conclusions:

In 1971, an estimated 8,000 households, or 6% of all households in this City could be teLmed in critical need of housing assistance due to inadequate incomes.

18 2.

Of these 8,000 households, 2,010 or 25% were senior citizens while 3,190 or 40% were family households. These two types of households would qualify for the senior citizen housing programs and public housing programs respectively.

A third type of household, with the head aged between 55 and 65, numbering 700 or 9%, was the non-family household, for which there is no program under the National Housing Act. Finally, 2,145 households, or 26%, were nonfamily households with the head under the age of 55. Few housing programs exist for this group.

Housing need was not confined to this "core" group: an additional 8,000 renting households with income under $10,000 paid over 30% of their income towards housing.

Implications:

- The data provides evidence that housing need existed among renters in 1971. - Unless society achieves a total redistribution of wealth, it is likely that there will always be a proportion of households of low income. - Government involvement in the production of housing in Edmonton has not been extensive to date: approximately 4 to 5 percent of the current housing stock in the City has been built with direct Government assistance. Even with stepped-up housing programs, this proportion is not likely to rise beyond 7 percent by 1986.

Range of Actions Possible:

Government involvement in providing housing assistance can range from income supplements to assistance to housing groups such as co-operatives to the actual creation of low rental housing units by the Government (for example, through a non-profit housing corporation and public housing construction, municipal/provincial/federal governments).

VI. TERM OF REFERENCE

Anayzi_zo oeciat piLobtem6 a Conclusions:

cm_ citizens.

Households comprised of senior citizens earn among the lowest average total income of all households (including investment income, etc.), and tend to spend more than the guideline of 30% on housing. Over one-third of all dwellings defined as sub-standard are occupied by senior citizen households.

19 Implications:

The proportion of senior citizen households will increase between 1986 and 2001 in the Edmonton region. Thus, the unique problems associated with senior citizen housing will become more significant after 1986.

Range of Actions Possible:

Special programs implementable without massive government expenditures to develop senior citizen housing and to assist senior citizens will be necessary.

VII. TERM OF REFERENCE

Identi6ication o6 the hocizing it.o.e.e being ptayed by the innuc. city and a the newty devaoping zubdivizionz. Conclusions:

Implications:

The inner city tends to house the smaller nonfamily household and has experienced a net population loss of 20,000 people since 1971. The newly developing subdivisions on the other hand tend to house the larger family households and have experienced a net growth of 35,000 since 1971, greater than the increase across the city as a whole. The City will soon be required to make a number of critical decisions with respect to the location and form of residential development and growth. Inner city redevelopment will lead to a more compact city with a greater utilization of infra-structure, but at the same time could result in a potential loss of character in the inner city neighborhoods. Concentration of development in the suburbs, on the other hand, is likely to be a more expensive proposition but will result in preservation of inner city neighborhoods. In addition, the form of development and redevelopment could influence the patterns of distribution of family and non-family households.

Range of Actions Possible:

Designation of growth nodes both in the inner city and in the suburbs, with identification of amount and form of development.

Extension of services to accommodate growth nodes.

Evaluation of staging especially with reference to servicing and implications for school boundaries.

20 VIII. TERM OF REFERENCE

Poitive and negative Conclusions:

e6,6ectz upon &Lppty by

exating

pfLacticez and

Most municipal policies and programs influencing the creation of housing currently reflect one of three roles towards residential development and housing: an active producer role, a fEcilitator role, or a regulator role. A number of the problems identified in this study derive from an inadequate supply of appropriate types of housing. Therefore, if the City is to assist in easing the housing problem for low income households, it will need to place greater emphasis on its producer and facilitator roles. At the same time, however, some of the issues identified and the actions suggested relate not to supply but to demand. In any situation of a gap between supply and demand, the gap can be decreased by reducing demand as well as by increasing supply. Therefore, intervention in the housing market by the various levels of government should address itself to demand as well as to supply.

Implications:

Range of Actions Possible:

Although there are a number of policy statements regarding housing adopted by Council, these documents have never been incorporated into a comprehensive statement of policy and procedures, outlining the extent to which this municipal government wishes to become involved in the housing market, or the manner in which its producer, facilitator and regulator roles will interrelate. The lack of a comprehensive framework of policy means that decision-making could be an uncoordinated process.

Define the extent to which this municipal government wishes to become involved in the housing market.

Recommend a housing policy to City Council which would address itself to the issue of government intervention in housing, and would identify the types of programs which the City of Edmonton should become involved in.

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 History The importance of a study of housing demand and need in the Edmonton Region has been recognized by the City Administration since 1973, with the completion of a report by a Housing Task Group recommending such a study. As a result of this report, terms of reference for a study of the housing market in Edmonton were drafted by the Planning Department and the Edmonton Community Housing Organization (Refer to Appendices 1 and 2). Research for the study commenced in September of 1974 when Federal housing statistics from the 1971 census gradually became available.

1.2 Terms of Reference The purpose of the housing market study was to collect and implement a housing information base for the Edmonton Metropolitan Area which, upon analysis, would: 1.

provide an estimate of housing requirements in the Metropolitan area; and

provide an estimate of the effective demand and the need for publicly assisted housing in the City of Edmonton.

In general, it was intended that the study would provide an estimate of the need for various municipal housing programs and would provide base data from which the City might justify the need for annual assistance for subsidized housing from the senior levels of government.

The terms of reference were reduced to the eight topics presented below. 1.

Trend analysis of supply and demand, identifying gaps and unmet needs (includes an analysis of housing prices and financial ability of consumers.)

Analysis of total housing stock by type, dwelling characteristics, and overcrowding.

Estimates as to annual attrition rate through processes of rezoning, public works, and deterioration.

Rate of price escalation by factors (land, servicing, labor, money).

Projection of need for social housing by program under the National Housing Act.

22 6.

Analysis of special problems of senior citizens.

Identification of the housing roles being played by the inner City and the newly developing subdivisions.

Positive and negative effects upon supply by existing practices and policies.

1.3 Format In order to deal with the first term of reference, this Study examines the two main components of the housing market: demand and supply. Chapter 2 examines current demand and projects future housing requirements. The essential unit for projection purposes is the household, and Chapter 2 analyzes changes in household characteristics.

Chapter 3 of the report analyzes supply to the extent that is necessary to deal with terms of reference (2) to (4). The discussion therefore limits itself to analyzing present quality and characteristics of the housing stock. Unlike the demand variable, no method for projecting housing supply was developed. Some analysis of trends in supply was undertaken, and these trends projected, but the level of analysis is superficial.

The fourth chapter of the study attempts to identify the extent of housing need in Edmonton, in order to deal with term of reference (5) and determine the requirement for programs under the National Housing Act. The Chapter deteLlaines an operational definition of "need", and examines income and housing cost in detail. The Chapter also includes a brief review of the income levels of senior citizens, in order to deal with teLlil of reference (6).

Chapter 5 deals with teLm of reference (7) and examines patterns in the location of housing in Edmonton and the implications of these patterns for the distribution of future growth.

Finally, Chapter 6 summarizes the analyses made previously and reaches conclusions about the housing market in Edmonton. In accordance with term of reference (8), the chapter examines present

23 policy with respect to housing and residential development, and identifies policy alternatives open to the City and to senior levels of government.

1.4 Scope The area studied in this report is termed the Edmonton Sub-Region and is shown in Figure 1. The sub-region corresponds closely with the Edmonton labor and housing market areas, and has been employed in a number of studies of the Metropolitan Area. Because the subregion is not used by Statistics Canada, however, no published Federal Census data is available for this area. Hence, data was generally obtained for the 1971 Census Metropolitan Area boundary and then estimated for the sub-region. In order to place these two areas in perspective, the sub-region contained approximately 151,000 dwelling units in 1971, 6,000 units more than the Census Metropolitan Area.

The projections contained in the report are generally for a fifteen year term - from 1971 to 1986. However, detailed analysis of some of the projections is undertaken only for the projection year 1981. In addition, some long teLm analysis to 2001 is provided.

This report employs a number of technical terms. To assist the reader, a glossary of terms is provided in the Preface.

LEGEND 11111111111111 Edmonton Sub-Region 1975 Census Metropolitan Area 1971 Census Metropolitan Area 1961. 1966 Municipal Boundaries 1975

OLegal

Mime Bon Accorcb

0 Gibbons

0Morinville

Fort Saskatchewan

wmuumj = —

St. Albert •

0 IkUult.

)1 4P' gli

Miltlilli 0 . 0 1111011i #S• ; i

Wile

41-

= = = =

Spruce Grove 0

0 Stony Plain

I i

:4°

EDMONTON Inams7mummwalr

0 Beaumont

QLeduc

numaing i

lllL

ntimaimifittini

1111111111MNINAMIIMW11111111111111111111111111

loolamitummumummiimmiumge

Edmonton Sub-Region 1975

Figure 1

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September.1975

CHAPTER 2 HOUSING DEMAND IN THE EDMONTON SUB-REGION

2.1 Introduction The purpose of this chapter is to provide a "trend analysis of supply and demand, identifying gaps" as required by term of reference (1). To deal with this term of reference, the chapter begins by outlining the concept of demand as it was employed in this study. After a review of the factors influencing the annual average increase in numbers of households, the chapter estimates current and future annual increases and examines changes in demographic and housing characteristics. Using this information, estimates are made of potential housing demand. The chapter then concludes by briefly comparing demand and supply in order to identify annual construction targets for the remainder of the decade. For further explanation of the methodology used in the chapter, refer to Appendices 3 and 4, and to the Preface for definitions of terms such as "life cycle" and "household formation". The data to support the conclusions of the chapter are in Appendix 5.

2.2 The Household as the Basis of Housing Demand The essential unit of housing demand is the "household"; i.e. "a person or group of persons occupying one dwelling". To estimate future numbers of households, it is necessary to examine three sets of factors: (1) the magnitude of future population, and the sources of population increase: (2) the distribution of the future population among stages in the life cycle; (3) non-demographic factors influencing the propensity to form households.

2.21 Future Population Growth Figure 2 illustrates that the projection of future households is based generally upon a population projection. The population projection used for this study is a cohort-survival projection undertaken by the City Planning Department in 1974. Three main variables are used in a cohort-survival technique: fertility and mortality rates, and net

26 migration. Although all three factors contribute in the long run to the net change in households, in the short run net migration is of most significance. The population projection used in this study assumes an annual net migration of 9,200 people into the Edmonton region (the average in the years 1966 to 1971). If Edmonton's economy experiences additional growth to that projected, this inmigration could increase, resulting in a further increase to housing demand. For example recent data suggest that current sub-regional net migration may be approaching 11,000 annually. Immediate housing requirements would therefore be increased by 600 to 700 units per year.

Figure 2

Housing Demand Projections -Overview of Methodciogy

Alternative

Allocation of Household Types to Dwelling Unit Types (Simple Projection)

Demanded Housing Stock by Ty7

,/,,

Population Projection

Project Rates of Increase in Households by Age Group

Project Households by Type and Age Alternative 2

Allocation of Household Types to Dwelling Unit Types (Modified Projection)

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September, 1975

27 2 22 The Distribution of Future Households Among Stages in the Life Cycle The housing demand projections are based on the assumption that the "stage in the life cycle" of the populace plays an important role in making decisions as to dwelling type and as to location within a City. According to this assumption, if one knows the future population structure of a city, it should be possible to predict the kinds of demand that this population will make for housing, since the type and location of housing demand is related to the stage of the life cycle in which each household in the population currently finds itself. In this study, the stage in the life cycle is defined in terms of two variables, age of the household head and type of household, and the population projection is analyzed to identify the mix of future households according to age of the household head and type of household.

2.23 Non-Demographic Factors Influencing the Propensity to Form a Household Although housing demand does have a basis in demographic characteristics of the populace, a number of other factors influence the "propensity to form a household" as discussed in the preceding sections. As a result of these additional factors, the rate of increase in households is not solely related to population growth. The process of household formation is sensitive to economic and cultural factors, such as income levels, housing costs, and social values regarding privacy and independence. For these reasons, there are no easy methods available for the projection of future households; rather, such projections must be based on critical assumptions regarding future trends in these particular variables.

Currently, the rate of population growth in both the City of Edmonton and the Edmonton Sub-Region is less than the rate of increase in households. The rate of increase in households is the net difference between the number of new households formed and the number of households lost through death or merging. It is postulated that the current high rate is the result of a number of factors: 1.

The post-war baby boom generation reached the stage of household formation in the period 1971-1976.

28 2.

Increasing incomes and expectations regarding privacy and independence are leading to an increasing number of individuals breaking out of existing households to form households of their own.

Increasing rates of separation and divorce in all age groups.

To date, there has been little indication that inflation has significantly depressed rates of household formation. The projections undertaken in this study assume that factors (2) and (3) above will continue and that inflation will not affect the net rate of increase in households significantly. However, this assumption must be carefully monitored and tested; the 1976 Census should be useful in this regard.

Based on the assumptions listed above, the proportion of an age cohort of the population which would become household heads was analyzed and projected. These projected proportions were then applied to population projections to yield a projection of household heads. By census definition, the number of household heads is synonymous with the number of households. Furthermore, the number of households is assumed equal to the number of occupied dwelling units. Thus for purposes of the analysis in this chapter, it is assumed that dwelling units will be available for all projected households. However, a shortage of housing would curtail the rate of increase in households. In addition, high housing costs and an inability to afford housing can influence the rate of increase in the number of households. The question of inability to afford housing will be dealt with in Chapter 4.

2.24 Alternative Dwelling Allocations A projection of households is not a complete picture of housing demand in itself. As Figure 2 indicates the household projection leads into the final stage of the projection, the "dwelling allocation". As stated previously, the allocation of households to dwellings is based on the assumption that a household chooses a dwelling appropriate to its stage in the life cycle. The stage in the life cycle of future households is characterized by the age of the household head and the type of household, and these two characteristics were used

to allocate households to dwelling types. A third characteristic analyzed and projected was household size, but due to a lack of adequate data, this variable was not used in determining types of dwelling units which might be demanded.

Although a variety of dwelling allocations is possible under the methodology employed, the following two alternatives were the only ones that were analyzed in depth. They are as follows: 1.

The first allocation assumes that the trend identified in the period 1961-1966-1971 will continue through the projection years of 1976, 1981 and 1986. The resulting projection stresses the allocation of future households to single family dwelling units.

The second allocation assumes a modification of the trends noticed from the years 1961 to 1971, based in part on the trends in housing cost and household incomes noted later in this report. The resulting allocation of household dwellings places greater emphasis on the role of row housing in the future satisfaction of housing demand.

This section has described the principles used in projecting the number of households and dwellings in 1981 and 1986. For a more detailed explanation of the methodology, refer to Appendices 3 and 4 of this study.

2.3 Growth in the Number of Households The remaining sections of this chapter will summarize the main conclusions reached regarding trends in demand. This section provides details on the conclusions related to the rate of increase in the number of households.

2.31 Changes in the Number of Households Figure 3 illustrates that the Edmonton Sub-Region is currently experiencing the fastest rate of increase in households since 1961. Although the rate of growth in households is expected to begin to decline after 1976, it should remain considerably higher than the rate of population growth. Thus, demand for dwelling units is currently increasing at a rate faster than the rate of population growth.

30 As indicated previously, however, household formation is dependent upon costs of housing relative to average incomes. Continued high inflation and unemployment may curtail the rate of increase in the number of households, although current trends in the Edmonton market would not seem to indicate such an abatement.

Average Annual Rate of Growth of Population and Number of Households in the Edmonton Sub- Region Over Preceding Five Years 1961-1986

Figure 3

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

TIME

Source: Table 3 Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September, 1975

2.311 Effect of Migration Figure 3 reflects a population projection based on assumptions of "medium" fertility and net sub-regional migration of 9,200 people a year. If net migration into the region increases over this amount, the rate of household expansion will increase. An additional 1000

households (3,500 persons) per year from migration would increase the rate of expansion of total households by about one-half of one percent; for example, from 5% to 5.6% for 1976 or from 3.75% to 4.2% for 1986. The population growth rate would also be increased, from 3% to 3.35% for 1976 or from 2.6% to 3.0% for 1986.

2.312 Analysis of the Rate of Increase in Households Figure 3 illustrates the final result of the household projection; it compares the rate of increase in households with the rate of population growth, and shows that this rate will increase to 1976 and then decrease. To understand the reasons for this trend, it is necessary to examine previous stages in the projection process. Figures 4 and 5 illustrate the first stage. In this stage, the proportion of households to population in a given age group is projected. The application of the two assumptions listed on page 28 is evident, for the significant increases are projected to occur, not in the proportion of family households to total population, but rather in the proportion of non-family households to total population.

In total, from 1971 to 1986, the proportion of family households to the total population is projected to increase 18% (from 23.4% to 27.6%). On the other hand, the proportion of non-family households to the total population is expected to increase 53% (from 5.8% to 8.9%) (refer to Table 2). Historically, it has been the process of forming the non-family household which has been most subject to economic and cultural fluctuations. For example, other studies have shown that in times of high unemployment, it is the rate of non-family household formation which is first affected. The effect of inflation may be similar; thus the actual number of households in 1981 will be less than projected if inflation continues to be serious, with the greatest reduction occurring in the number of non-family households.

Figure 4

Proportion of Family Households to Population in Age Cohort, by Age of Household Head, Edmonton C MA*, 1961-1986 50

40 3

P 3Â°

" 6 10

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

TIME

Proportion of Non- Family Households to Population in Age Cohort, by Age of Household Head, Edmonton CMA, 1961 - 1986

Figure 5

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

TIME

Census Metropolitan Area

Source: Table 2

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September, 1975

15- 24 Years ---- 25-34 Years 35 -2 4 4 Years 45 .54 rs - 55-64 Years 66+ Years

33 2.313 Implications In summary, from 1971 to 1986, it is expected that the number of households could increase 90% compared to a population increase of only 53%. The implications of this increase in the proportion of households to population are important. With increasing incomes, Canadians are expecting a high standard of living, and expressing a tendency towards privacy and independence by breaking out of existing households and forming households of their own. The costs of fulfilling these expectations are high, in terms of the increased housing production which is required. It can be argued that housing is a relatively unproductive form of capital investment, and in fact, takes capital which could have been invested in other forms enterprise. The costs of these trends in household formation create an argument for a policy which would attempt to convince Canadians to refocus those desires which lead to the demand to create new households. Such a policy would have as its purpose the education of Canadians as to the costs of living in small households. It would need to outline alternative ways in which a desire for privacy or independence could be fulfilled. To implement such an objective, programs to encourage house designs which allow for privacy without reducing household size would be necessary.

2.314 Total Requirements Figure 6 shows the annual increase in households by age groups from 1961 to 1986. The post war baby boom cohort should be noted; increases in households in the 25-34 age group are exceptional in the 1971-76 period. Similarly, increases in the 35-44 age group are significant in 1981-86 period. If the time period of the projection were to be extended, the period 1991-96 would see a significant increase in the number of households aged 45-54. Table 5 summarizes these data. From 1971 to 1976, an annual increase of approximately 8,500 households in the sub-region can be expected. From 1976 to 1981, net annual increases of approximately 9,400 households are anticipated and, from 1981 to 1986, 9600 households per year. Appendix 9 outlines the conclusions of three other reviews of household projections in the Edmonton Sub-Region; these can be referred to for comparative purposes. The range of variation among the projections is Âą 5%.

Average Annual Increase in Number of Households by Age of Head, Edmonton CMA to 1971, and Edmonton Sub-Region Over Preceding Five Years to 1986

Figure 6

4500

NUMBERO FHOUSEHOLDS

4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500

1971

Source: Table 5

1976 TIME

1981

1986

15 - 24 Years - ---- 25 - 34 Years 35 44 Years --- 45 -54 Years - 55-64 Years 65+ Years

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September,1975

The implication for the housing industry is that these numbers of dwelling units must be built annually to house the new households formed in a given year. If these numbers are not built, the result will be pent-up demand to reappear as soon as starts increase, or pseudo increases in supply, such as subdivision of existing units. Thus, in the early 1970's, the rate of increase in households may have stabilized simply as a result of the slowdown in starts. As soon as housing starts increase, the rate of increase in households will do likewise.

2.315 Long Term Trends Planning Department estimates project the population of the Edmonton Sub-Region to be slightly greater than one million by the year 2001,

and average household size to be approximately 2.6 (assuming current trends continue). Under these assumptions, net additions to the number of households would stablize at approximately 8400 per year in the fifteen year period after 1986. Thus, barring any unforeseen increases in migration, Edmonton should not again experience sudden increases in housing demand as dramatic as it has known in the past few years. However, it should be emphasized that in the decade 1976 to 1986, construction targets will be higher than they have ever been previously.

2.4 Household Characteristics This section describes projected changes in the distribution of households according to type of household, age of head, and size of household. In particular, the changes in household size could be significant, and the section devotes some space to analyzing the implications.

Figure 7

Trends in Household Type by Age of Head, Edmonton CMA, 1961-1986

AGE OF HEAD 25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

TIME

Source: Table 8

117:1

Family

niNon-family Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September, 1975

2.41 Trends in Type of Household Figure 7 shows how the trends projected in Figures 4 and 5 affect the distribution of the population into family or non-family households, and emphasizes the increasing dominance of the non-family household. The age groups with the highest proportion of non-family households are the under 25 and the over 65; the highest proportion of family households occurs in the 35 to 44 age group. 2.42 Age of Head Figure 8 illustrates the ramifications of the household projections upon the distribution of households according to age of head. The important point in Figure 8 is that the distribution of households among age groups is projected to remain relatively stable to 1986. Only the younger age groups of non-family households change their relative position as they are expected to become more dominant from 1961 1986.

Figure 8

Trends in Distribution of Household Heads by Age WitKn Househcld Type 1961-1986

NONI-FAMiLY

FAMILY

100%

1971 1976 1981 WM TIME

966

1971

1976

1981

TIME

114,1! 15-24 Years

Source: Tables I & 4

25-34 Years 35-44 Years C 45-54 Years

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September, 1975

11_ 55-64 Years 65+ Years

It is important to note that, until 1986, the relative proportion of households over 55 is not projected to increase beyond its relative proportion in 1971. Thus, although elderly households should increase in absolute terms, they should not become more significant proportionately before 1986. After that year, Planning Department estimates indicate that their dominance will increase.

2.43

Household Size Average household size is projected to decrease from 3.4 persons in 1971 to 2.9 persons by 1981 and 2.7 persons by 1986. Long term estimates indicate that the average number of persons per household in 2001 should be approximately 2.6.

2.431 Implications of Changes in Household Size for Dwelling Demand Table 11 illustrates the projected distribution of households by type, age of head and size in 1981. It is projected that over 80% of all family households will be four or less in size with an estimated 35% of all family households a childless married couple. If current trends continue, therefore, the need for large dwelling units will not be great; however, households might demand large dwellings if their incomes and expectations continue to be high.

Non-family households (mostly single person) are expected to comprise one-quarter of the total number of households in the sub-region in 1981, with a full 5% of all households expected to be a single person over age 65. The implications for housing requirements are significant. In addition to being smaller, non-family households tend to have lower incomes than family households, and generally tend to be renters. Thus, there should be a continuing requirement for relatively small, less expensive dwelling units.

Figure 9

Trends in Household Size 1966, 1971 3:1231, Edmonton CMA

100 0/0

CUMULATIVE PERCENT

•

• •

.•.•. .•.•.• .•..

1966

Source: Table 12

1981

lor 2 Persons

1771 3or 4 Persons i= 5 + Persons

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Deportment Research and Long Range Planning Branch September,1975

Figures 9, 10 and 11 detail the implications of declining household sizes. Figure 9 shows that, relatively, the proportion of small households is expected to increase to 1981; on the other hand, the proportion of households with five or more persons is expected to decline by 1981. Figure 10 shows the significant changes which have occurred in household size since 1961 and are projected to occur to 1986 and 2001, if the number of households continues to increase at a faster rate than the population.

Average Household Size Edmonton CMA, 1961-2001

Figure 10

AVERAGE NUMBEROF PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD

2 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 TIME

2001

Source: Tables 4 &13

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September,1975

Figure 11 illustrates the ramification of such a trend for household size by age group of the household head. Declines in size could be expected for every age group; even for the age group where households tend to be the largest (that is the 35 to 44 age group), average size will decline to less than four persons per household.

Figure 11

Average Household Size by Age of Head,1966 â&#x20AC;&#x201D;1931 Edmonton CMA and Sub-Region

................... ..... ........... 040.0. ...

00.0. .000.

................. ......... .................................. ...................... .0 0

0000.000

0. 000210

1966

1981

1971 TIME

Source: Table 12

......... 15 - 24 Years ----- 25 -34 Years 35 - 44 Years 45 - 54 Yea rs - - 55-64 Years - 65+ Years

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September, 1975

342

Implications of Changes in Household Size for School Planning Changes in household size mean essentially that fewer persons are likely to be living in all types of dwelling units than there were in 1971. For example, in 1971, there was an average of 3.8 persons per single family unit, and an average of 2.1 persons per apartment unit. Estimates indicate that by 1981 there will be only 3.4 persons for single family dwellings and 1.9 persons in apartment units (refer to Table 15). These trends could have significant implications for the planning of school districts. Maintaining current density levels of dwelling units per acre, it is likely that it will be necessary to depend more and more on bussing for the maintenance of school districts. The alternative option is to increase the density of dwelling units per acre (for example, through row housing) in order to maintain the required school population.

2.5 Dwelling Unit Projections 2 51 Alternate Projections As mentioned in the first section of this chapter, the dwelling unit projection employs the projection of households undertaken previously and is based on a process of allocating the households to dwelling units. Two alternative projections were undertaken in an attempt to identify the construction targets necessary under alternate assumptions. The projections are based on the assumption that the age of the household head will influence the dwelling type chosen by the household. Figure 12 illustrates the methods of the first projection: trends in the distribution of households among dwelling type were extrapolated to 1986. Because the projection did not reflect possible changes in demand resulting from changes in taste or changes in the cost of housing, a second alternative projection was undertaken, using the same procedures, but attempting to accommodate possible changes in demand as a result of changes in market conditions. Figure 12

Simple Projection of Dwelling Unit Propensities by Type and Age of Household Head 1981,1986 Edmonton Sub-Region AGE OF HEAD

5-24

25-3A

45-54

35-44

55-64

65+ ---saragiiiingil= 100%

111 sSource: Table 17

.E74Y07 TIME

fm Single Detached [I] Row Apartmelit

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September. 1975

11101 Mobile Home

The second projection method uses projected changes in tenure by age of the household head to derive a second set of "dwelling unit propensities". As shown in Figure 13, the proportion of households owning their own homes declined steadily in the period 1961-1971 (refer also to Table 19). Figure 13 shows the projected trend in tenure assuming that the cost of homeownership, as examined later in this report, continues to increase beyond the capacity of lower income households. Figure 13

Tenure of Households by Age of Head Edmonton CMA 1961-1931 OWN

RENT

.... . .

- .......... .........

60 Ui a.

100

BO m,

m.4. mm

..............

Ui 0 60 cc Ui a.

mmatom 30

... 5

......

20 . .......

1961

1966

......... 1971 TIME

....... 1981

Source: Table 20

1961

1966

1971 TIME

1981

15- 24 Years ---- 25 -34 Years 35-44 Years ommâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; 45- 54 Years 55-64 Years 65+ Years

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September, 1975

Based on the premise, therefore, that housing costs will continue to rise, and that households will demand less costly alternatives (as shown by the trends in tenure), households were reallocated to dwelling units. This second allocation places more emphasis on row housing and mobile homes as acceptable lower cost alternatives for family housing, and assumes that the recent increase in construction of row housing is the beginning of a long teLm trend. The requirement for apartments remains essentially stable, since it will be primarily family households which will be affected by ownership costs. The revised dwelling unit propensities are illustrated in Figure 14. Further discussion on methodology is provided in Appendix 4.

Figure 14

Modified Projection of Dwelling Unit Propensities by Type and Age Household Head 19.S-41986 Edmonton Sub,Region

AGE OF HEAD 25-34

45-54

35-44

55-64

100%

CUMULAT IVE PERCENT

100%

15-24

4y.,,yogye/ TIME

EM Single Detached Source: Table 21

IF71 Row =1 Apartment IIII Mobile Home

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September, 1975

The following annual construction targets are required for the years 1976 to 1981. The distributions are derived on the basis of the two alternate methods and are explained in Appendix 4. Method I (single family maintains dominance) Single family Row Apartment Mobile Home Total

4840 150 4320 100 9410

Method II (row an acceptable alternative) 3730 1850 3580 250 9410

Because the costs of purchasing single family homes appear to be increasing relative to incomes, this report concludes that the targets outlined by

Method II are more appropriate. However, the establishment of these figures as targets cannot be undertaken without a number of other simultaneous government actions (as outlined in Chapter 6). Demand for single family homes is still high in Edmonton, apparently reflecting Canadian desires for privacy and for an investment and hedge against inflation. Although multiple family housing is gaining acceptance by the market, opportunities still exist for ensuring its suitability for long term occupancy.

A third method of allocating dwelling units was undertaken initially as a check on the second projection method. The results are not illustrated graphically, but are provided in Tables 23 to 25. The projection indicates that the results of the second method appear consistent with patterns apparent in 1966 and 1971 in the distribution of households by type and tenure among dwelling units.

2.52 Relationship of Dwelling Requirements and Supply The previous section of the report has reviewed the processes involved in projecting and distributing housing demand to 1986. On the average, 8500 units per year should have been built from 1971 to 1976, 9400 units per year from 1976 to 1981, and 9600 units per year from 1981 to 1986. The years 1971 to 1975 experienced an average annual shortfall of approximately 400 units of the required 8500 units; as a result, slightly higher levels of construction may be necessary in the latter half of the decade. (It should be noted, however, that because construction figures are not available for a small portion of the sub-region, actual housing starts in the years 1971 to 1975 may be slightly higher than those given).

Figure 15 illustrates changes in the housing stock from 1961 to 1971 in the Edmonton Sub-Region, and indicates the total additional construction required to reach the levels projected for 1981. The two alternate projections of mix, as derived from Figures 12 and 14, are shown.

Figure 15

Current Housing Stock and Required Construction in the Edmonton Sub-Region to 1981

1981

140,000

981

S â&#x20AC;&#x201D;Simple Projection Mâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; Modified Projection

120000 NUMBEROF UNITS

19 1974

974

100,000

1971

80,000 1966 1961

1%1

60.000

1975 1974

1971

1966

1956 1961

974

40,000 .1981

20.000

1981 WM

197

1961

975 97.1 971 1966 1%1

APT

Source: Table 27

17-4 Required Construction 1975-1981 Actual Construction 1974

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September,1975

The long range ramifications of the two alternatives are illustrated in Figure 16, which shows projected changes in the percentage distribution of dwelling types from 1961 to 1986.

It can be suggested that the changes apparent in the diagram reflect the market's reaction to the changing composition of household type. The increasing proportion of apartments was the market's reaction to the increasing number of non-family households being formed. It is now hypothesized that the market will react to the increasing cost of single family home ownership with increasing construction of row housing accommodation. The market must also increase the production of apartment units, for it has been in this type of dwelling unit that construction has fallen short.

Figure 16

Distribution of Housing Stock 1961-1986 Edmonton Sub-Region i00%

CUML ATIVEPERCENT

•••••••••••.•

1961

1966

1971

1986

1981 TIME

ED Single Detached

Source: Table 28

=1 Row ED Apartment

Mobile Home

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September, 1975

A comment should be made about the role of mobile homes in the Edmonton housing market. Projection I assumes that the mobile home will still continue to play a necessary, but minor role, in the Edmonton Sub-Region. The number of mobile homes is projected to expand at the rate noticed from 1966 to 1971: approximately 100 units per year. This rate is slightly faster than the projected rate of expansion of the housing stock; thus from 0.7% of the housing stock in 1971, the mobile home increases slightly to equal 0.9% of the housing stock in 1981.

In Projection II the mobile home plays a more significant role in the housing market, due to its lower construction cost. It is expected that much more emphasis will be placed on prefabricated housing and modular housing in the future if construction costs continue to increase. The mobile home is projected to increase to

47 about 1.37 of the housing stock in 1981; of course, this increase can only be accomplished if land is provided in the sub-region for mobile homes. A regional policy regarding the acceptability of mobile home development will be necessary to accommodate this trend. At the same time, the feasibility of placing mobile homes under the building code rather than under the CSA standards could be evaluated; such an action would recognize the role of the mobile home as a permanent residence rather than a durable good.

The following chapter examines the supply of housing stock in greater detail.

CHAPTER 3 HOUSING SUPPLY IN THE EDMONTON SUB-REGION 3.1 Introduction The purpose of this Chapter is to deal with terms of reference (2), (3) and (4). To deal with (2), the chapter begins with a description of housing stock condition and the incidence of over-crowding. The chapter then goes on to describe, in greater detail characteristics of single family and multiple family dwellings in Edmonton. In this section, some analysis has been undertaken of the components of cost and price increases in order to meet the requirement of term of reference (4).

The second half of the chapter deals with factors influencing the expansion of the housing stock - primarily demolition (term of reference (3)) and construction - and examines the feasibility of increasing the supply of housing in Edmonton to the extent required by the housing projections.

Appendix 6 contains the technical tables to support the conclusions reached in this chapter.

3.2 Condition of Housing Stock During the course of this study, an attempt was made to evaluate the condition of housing in Edmonton. Unfortunately, no definitive estimate can be made as to the number of substandard dwellings in the City because the Census of Canada did not survey dwelling condition in 1971. Thus a number of surrogate variables must be used. Therefore, for the purpose of this study, substandard refers not to structural condition of the dwelling but rather to a lack of critical amenities. A second variable used is the age of the stock, which is a rough measure of its life expectancy and can be used to estimate dwelling conditions.

In general, the housing stock of the Edmonton metropolitan area is in relatively good condition compared with that of most Canadian cities.

49 Only 6.2% (9,000 dwelling units) of the housing sock was built before 1920, as compared with the national urban average of 17.1%. One can infer that, because of its newness, the housing stock in Edmonton is probably in better condition than that in many Canadian cities.

In evaluating substandard housing, four variables from the Federal Census relating to amenities were identified as being of assistance: type of heating, running water, and bath and toilet facilities. Generally, the data indicated that housing stock in Edmonton is comparable to or better than that in other centers in terms of these amenities. For example, 96.4% of all dwellings in the metropolitan area had furnaces; the national average among urban centers in 1971 was only 86.4%. Similarly, in 1971, only 635 units, or 0.44% of the housing stock, were dwellings with no furnace and with more than one person per room. This compares with 3.9% in the City of Montreal, or with the national urban average of 2%.

In one area Edmonton fell behind the Canadian average: 4.1% of its dwelling units did not have exclusive use of flush toilets, compared with only 2.5% among Canadian urban areas. There is some evidence, therefore, to indicate that Edmonton has a higher proportion of rooming houses with dwellings without exclusive use of toilets than elsewhere in Canada.

Figure 17 illustrates the number of dwellings characterized by lack of various amenities. For purposes of comparison, information on over-crowding has been included on the graph. Although this variable does not refer to the condition of the dwelling itself, it has been used as an indicator of substandard conditions. Detailed crosstabulated information is not available to the Planning Department on all of these variables; however, the following is known as to the degree of overlap among dwellings. 1.

Dwellings without running water and those without exclusive use of bath or toilet all tended to be the same.

Dwellings without toilet or bath facilities tended not to be the same as those that were over-crowded.

50 3.

It is estimated that dwellings without exclusive use of bath or toilet and dwellings without furnaces tended to be the same.

In summary, approximately 4% of the housing stock lacked exclusive use of critical amenities in 1971 and an additional 1% was extremely over-crowded (with more than 1.6 persons per room).

A survey conducted in 1965 for Urban Renewal provides an alternate estimate of substandard housing conditions in the City. At that time, the Planning Department identified approximately 10,000 dwellings as being substandard or dilapidated. Since that time, it is estimated that demolition has removed 3000 to 4000 of these dwellings; thus 6000 to 7000 dwellings could be structurally substandard.

Figure 17

Measures of Substandard Conditions in Edmonton CMA,1971

More Thal 1.6 Persons Per Room

INDICATORS OFSUBSTANDARD CONDITIONS

More Than 1 Person Per Room

No Exclusive Use of Bath

No Running Water

Without Furnace Heating

Flush Toilet â&#x20AC;&#x201D;Shared or Without

I 1,000

1 2000 ,

I 3,000

t 4,000

I 5,000

I 6.000

1 7.000

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS

Source: Tables 29 &31

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September,1975

I 8,000

3.21 Impact of Substandard Conditions Some data are available to indicate what type of households live in those dwellings considered substandard. The most common is the elderly household. Over 36% of those dwellings classed as substandard because they lacked toilet facilities were occupied by a non-family household headed by a person over 55 years of age. Almost exclusively, these dwellings were rented for less than $60 per month. Elderly households also tended to occupy the older dwelling units in the City.

In 1971, apartments had a slightly greater tendency to be substandard (defined in terms of flush toilet) than single family dwellings or row housing. Most likely, this tendency was due to the incidence of rooming houses. On the other hand, single detached dwellings had a greater tendency to be substandard when defined in teLms of heating.

3.22 Impact of Overcrowding Almost all dwellings which were overcrowded were occupied by family households. However, with the prospect of declining household sizes in the future, it is not felt that overcrowding is a significant problem. In examining the types of households occupying overcrowded dwellings, 42% of all such dwellings are occupied by a household headed by a person aged 35 to 44. This is to be expected, since this is the stage of the life cycle when household sizes are largest.

Overcrowding was more common in single family dwellings and row housing, being most significant in row housing.

3.23 Conclusions Regarding Substandard Conditions Although substandard dwellings do exist in the Metropolitan Area, they do not comprise a significant proportion of the housing stock 5% at most. Chapter 6 suggests alternative methods of approaching the question of substandard housing.

52 3.3 The Single Family Dwelling Market The purpose of this section is to outline significant aspects of the single family dwelling stock.

Although they are gradually becoming less dominant in Edmonton, single family dwellings still comprise an estimated 60% of subregional housing stock. Approximately 82% of all single family dwellings were owner occupied in 1971. The prime question with respect to single family dwellings is their affordability (terms of reference (1) and (4)); hence the section will begin with an analysis of prices.

3.31 Trends in Single Family Dwelling Prices Figure 18 illustrates the distribution of market values for single family dwellings in 1961 and 1971, and for a 1% sample in 1975 of actual prices based on sales during the first three months of the year. (It should be noted that "value" is the term used by the Federal Census and refers to the price expected on the market).

Figure 18

Distribution of Dwelling Prices Edmonton CMA 1961, 1971, Edmonton Area 1975 50 45

.......... \ 1

40 35 30 w 0 25 z w Q. E 20

- -1961 --- 1971

I I I I I

\ 1 4 1 1

i/1s I , 1

I I / // /

...........

7.500 10.000

20,000

30,000 40.000 VALUE OF DWELLING

......... 50.000

......... 60.000 65.000+

Source: Table 37 Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September,1975

53 As shown, in addition to the prices increasing in general, disparity is increasing. Statistical analysis of the distributions supports this claim. One of the causes of such increasing disparity is that there are relatively more high priced houses being built now than have been previously.

Edmonton houses tend to be among the largest in the country: new housing in 1974 financed under the National Housing Act averaged at 1258 square feet, compared with a national average of 1078 square feet. Such a difference can result in an increase of $5,000 on the total price of the house. Recent building permit summaries provide little evidence that builders are moving towards more modest housing in the City. This conservatism is undoubtedly due partly to consumer demand, but it also results from the fact that higher profit is possible on a high priced house. As a result, new housing in the past year has tended not only to be relatively large, but also to contain amenities such as fireplaces and extra appliances. Informal conversations with representatives of the development industry have suggested that an ethic of competition prevails which prevents offering the same house at a reduced price; rather the ethic allows only that the same house can be offered with more amenities. This ethic protec2ts the small builder but it could also serve to discourage price competition.

To conclude, new houses in Edmonton tend to be of a high "standard" in terms of size and amenities. In early 1975, an estimated 45% of all single family dwellings in the region were valued at over $40,000. In August, 1975, a national market survey concluded that a "typical" three bedroom new bungalow in Edmonton cost $56,000; only in Toronto, Vancouver and parts of Montreal were comparative houses priced higher.

3.32 Total Cost of Home Ownership In order to evaluate the question of affordability, it ic necessary to examine the total cost of home ownership. The previous data on house prices do not indicate the true cost of home ownership, since

54 items such as mortgage interest, property taxes, and dwelling insurance must be included. Figure 19 shows that the total cost of home ownership has risen not only as a result of the final house price, but also as a result of substantial increases in interest and insurance payments. Further discussion on the cost of home ownership as it relates to income will be undertaken in the following chapter.

Changes in the Cost of Housing — Selected Components 1961-1975

Figure 19

CONSUMERPRICEINDEX

250

200

...-Rent .-.---- Dwelling Insurance -- Mortgage Interest Cost of New Homes ---- Total Cost of Home Ownership*

/ I / / /

150

100 Igalmoses,••••.•..

50 1961 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 TIME Source: Table 38 Includes Property Taxes, Mortgage Interest, Owner Repairs, Dwelling Insurance, 8, Housing Cost Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September, 1975

Figure 19 shows a second important point: on a national basis, the cost of renting has not risen nearly as quickly as the cost of home ownership. From 1961 to October, 1975, the home ownership index rose 161%; the rental index rose 32%. The implications of this trend in the rental market will be discussed in Chapter 4.

55 3.33 Trends in the Components of Single Family Dwelling Prices The causes for increases in single family dwelling prices are complex, considering that the majority of the housing stock is already standing and should not therefore be affected by increases in the price of servicing or constructing a new house.

As indicated

in Chapter 2, demand for housing for ownership appears to be high, as a result of the current rate of increase in households and consumer desires to invest in property. Prices of existing stock, therefore, have risen partly in response to demand.

However, there

is also evidence to indicate that existing stock rises in price to meet the prices of new homes. As land becomes more costly in the suburbs, inner city land rises in value. Increases in construction costs affect existing houses in the same manner, as their replacement costs rise. It can be argued, therefore, that if new housing can be reduced in price, there should be a spinoff effect on existing stock.

Figure 20

Estimated Trends in the Cost of New Single Family Dwellings 1965-1974*

50,000 45,000

*Data Refer Primarily to Dwellings Financed

Under the National Housing Act_

40,000 35,000

price

.. ....... .......

............... ... Total o Constructio^

20,000

r. st

—

15,000 10,000 5,000

...... ................... ........

1965 Source:

•••..

Total Land ......... ......

1966

1967

1968

1969 WM TIME

....................

T°tal .

1971

Table 39

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September,1975

1972

1973

1974

56 Figure 20 illustrates trends in the components of costs for a new single family dwelling in Edmonton, financed under the National Housing Act, between 1965 and 1974. It is seen that construction cost remains a substantial portion of the total final cost. Of the total cost increase between 1965 and 1974 in the average price of a new house, 72% was due to increases in the cost of construction. Total Increase:

$22,399

Increase in Construction Cost:

$16,055 (72%)

Increase in Total Land Cost:

$ 6,344 (28%)

Land costs have been increasing more rapidly than construction costs (over 180% since 1965, compared with an increase of 124% in construction costs); however, these data indicate that land cost still remains the smaller portion (30% to 35%) of the total final cost of a house.

Since construction costs are the more significant proportion of the final cost, it would be logical to begin with this component in any attempts to reduce costs. Attempts to reduce costs through use of alternate materials or efficiency techniques have not been overly successful; however, more significant cost reductions could be achieved by concentrating on developing innovative construction methods such as mass-producing housing modules. Such a step would mean that the industry must become less labour intensive; or, it could mean that completely new house designs must be formulated, with the attendant requirements that Canadians re-adjust their value system which places such strong emphasis on the need for a single family house. 3.4 The Multiple Family Dwelling Market This market comprises the two major remaining types of dwelling: row housing and apartments. In 1974 row housing comprised an estimated 8% of the housing stock, while apartments comprised 31% of the stock. Although the majority of multiple family stock was rented in 1971, the trend towards condominium tenure should result in a slight shift towards ownership.

57 3.41 Trends in Dwelling Rents As indicated previously, the rental index has risen more slowly than the cost of home ownership on a national basis. In Edmonton, average rents of $72 monthly in 1961 rose to $125 monthly in 1971. Average figures should be used with caution, however, since they may not be comparable due to changes in the quality or size of dwelling units. Average rent figures are not available for years since 1971. However, it is known that rents have been rising in Edmonton recently, as a result not only of rising costs, but also of pressure from increasing demand and decreasing vacancy rates.

The vacancy rate in apartment buildings with six units or more in the City in April of 1975 was 0.8%. This level was comparable with other metropolitan areas across the county: the national urban average was 1.2%, ranging from a low of 0.1% in Regina to 3.4% in Windsor. Because pressure to form households is high across the country (refer to Appendix 9), pressure on rents is likely to be similarly a national trend. The trends in the rent index, therefore, even though not specific to Edmonton, are likely applicable to the City.

3.42 Trends in Multiple Family Dwelling Prices Townhouse condominiums in Edmonton for the first three months of 1975 averaged approximately $30,000 per unit. Apartment units varied considerably in price, depending on whether they were a modest conversion or a luxury unit. More recent data indicates a rise in the average price of townhouse condominiums to $35,000 to $45,000.

In general, condominium units tend to be priced somewhat lower than comparable single family dwellings, presumably reflecting their lower land and construction costs. However, no research has been undertaken in this study on the relationships of the condominium and single family dwelling market; thus, no conclusions can be drawn as to areas where a condominium development is cost effective compared with single family development.

58 As mentioned in Chapter II, the apartment market is currently experiencing a slowdown in starts. Again, no research has beea undertaken as to the components of cost increases faced by apartment owners; however, it appears that the increases faced (for example, mortgage interest) are so significant that rents would need to be raised substantially to offset them. In addition, the development industry claims that the federal government has created an atmosphere of uncertainty with respect to the length of time that the capital cost allowance for rental buildings will be provided for in the income tax legislation. As a result of this uncertainty, the building industry has been disinclined to invest in rental developments. It should be noted that on November 3, 1975, the Federal Government announced an extension of the capital cost allowance provision until the end of 1977; this should have an encouraging effect on the market.

In conclusion, for both the apartment and the townhouse sectors of the multiple family market, research is necessary in order to understand the operations of the sectors. However, the data provided in this section and the previous section on the single family dwelling market provide some base figures for the analysis of the housing expenditure to income ratio in Chapter 4.

3.5 Net Expansion of the Housing Stock As indicated in the introduction to this Chapter, the remainder of the Chapter examines factors influencing the expansion of the housing stock, and evaluates the feasibility of the industry increasing its production rate to eliminate the backlog of demand.

3.51 Current Trends In the period 1970 - 1974, housing starts in the Census Metropolitan Area have averaged 8000 units a year. Although the rate of starts was depressed in 1974 and early 1975, it has increased in the latter months of 1975, to the point that it is expected that housing starts in the sub-region for 1975 will reach approximately 8500 to 9000 units. This range is only 500 to 1000 units short of the

59 level required to meet the demands of the projected annual net increase in households. Approximately 60% of housing starts in 1975 are single family units, with 30% being row housing and 10% being apartments. Apartment construction has declined markedly over the past few years, while single family construction has increased.

Possible reasons for the unwillingness of the industry to build apartments are: (1) Uncertainty as to Federal income tax legislation relating to capital cost allowance for rental apartment dwellings. The announcement of November, 1975 should reduce this uncertainty. (2) The market may not be ready to accept apartment accommodation in the suburbs. (3) Land in the inner City might be unattractive for apartment development for two reasons: prices may be too high; and recent resident concerns about the impact of redevelopment may reduce the attractiveness of inner City land.

The result of the lagging of housing starts in the short term is the subdivision of existing dwelling units to fo L 111 additional units such as basement suites, and a tendency for households that would normally form in a period of oversupply to share with other households. In addition, because housing is in short supply, the amount of choice in the market is reduced and households are placed in a position of accepting what is available. Thus, it could be argued that households in Edmonton may not really want what is being provided by the market, but purchase anyway because no alternatives are available.

3.52 Factors Influencing Starts In order to estimate future supply in the Edmonton Sub-Region for the next few years, it is necessary to balance the various factors which either encourage or discourage construction. On the one hand, the market will react to increasing demand exerted by increases in the numbers of households. On the other hand, the market also reacts to increasing costs which might make such activity unprofitable. Indications are that in the long term, the housing industry is sensitive to net increases in the numbers of households; however,

in the short term, the housing industry is sensitive to cost factors such as interest rates. Short term trends are illustrated in Figure 21, which plots housing starts, the rate of increase in households and national mortgage rates. In order to obtain a better understanding of the long term operations of the housing market, Figure 22 provides a comparison of the rate of household formation with a five year running average of housing starts.

Figure 21 illustrates that, in the short term, there appears to be a relationship between housing starts and external factors such as interest rates. Although starts were rising in the period 1965 to 1969 at the same time as interest rates were moving upwards, they fell sharply in 1970, the same year when interest rates increased to a new high. Similarly, housing starts declined in 1974, when interest rates rose suddenly again. In spite of these short term trends, Figure 22 illustrates that in the long term, housing starts are in fact sensitive to household formation. In the period 1970 to 1973, housing starts were greater than required for household increase, a trend which resulted in high vacancy rates in that period. The slowdown in multiple family starts in 1974 could have resulted partly from this period of oversupply.

3.53 Short Term Supply Estimates Table 45 illustrates two alternative estimates of the construction that could occur in 1976, 1977 and 1978. Alternative 1 assumes that the senior levels of government will provide incentives for multiple family accommodation by 1976, and that land will be available, especially for high rise construction. A first thrust in this direction was provided by the Provincial announcement of August 21, 1975 to provide low interest loans for apartment construction, and by the announcement of the Federal Government in November, 1975 to encourage multiple family rental accommodation. Alternative 2 is a slower road to recovery, and assumes that industry remains unwilling to build multiple family accommodation.

Figure 21

Average Rate of Household Increase, and Housing Starts, Edmonton C MA 1961 — 1975 Showing National Conventional [..ortgage Interest Rates

12,000-

10.0 00—

—11

ri 8 000-

—10

6,000—

—9 Housing Starts.

E] 4,000-

—a

2.000—

—7

1961

Figure 22

1963

1965

1967

1969 TIME

1971

1973

1575

Average Numbers of Housing Starts and Estimated Rates of Household Increase, Edmonton CM A 1966 — 1975

10.000

co 8,000 cc 0

6.000

ci)

Numter of Housing Starts Averaged Over Previous 5 Year Period

— Annual Rate of Increase in Households

2 4.000

2.000

1966 1967

1969

1971

1973

1975 TIME

Source: Tables 40 & 44&45 Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Deportment Research and Long Range Planning Branch December, 1975

1977

1979

IND38DdN I 31V8 ISDU 3INI

Mortgage lnteest gate A

Under Alternative 1, the deficit in dwelling units required for net household increase would be reduced by 1977. Under Alternative 2, on the other hand, the deficit in dwelling units would be maintained beyond 1978.

3.54 Housing Mix As detailed in Chapter 2, to erase the backlog of demand, an average of 9400 starts are required for the remainder of the decade. On the assumption that row housing and mobile homes will replace some of the demand for single family dwellings, the following annual targets were outlined and suggested for the sub-region: Single Family: Row: Apartment: Mobile:

3730 1850 3580 250

Total:

9410 units

units units units units

3.55 Demolitions In the area including Edmonton, St. Albert and Sherwood Park, losses from the housing stock due to demolitions and mergers averaged 610 units per year between 1961 and 1971. Since 1969, however, demolitions have declined to an annual average of approximately 330 units in the City itself, or approximately 5% of new housing starts. Current demolition rates for the entire region are estimated at a maximum of 400 units per year, or 0.2% per year of the total housing stock. This rate is lower than the guideline quoted in many housing market studies, due primarily to the relative newness of the stock in the Edmonton area. In conclusion, demolition does not appear to have a significant influence upon the quantity of housing stock.

However, demolition may have significant impact in terms of reducing the number of older buildings in the Edmonton area. Only 9,000 existing dwelling units were built before 1920; at a rate of 400 demolitions per year, this stock could be depleted in a little over 20 years, assuming all demolitions are this old. Much of the older housing stock in the Edmonton area has already been demolished. For example, between 1961 and 1971, 3500 or 30% of all units in the

City built before 1920 and still standing in 1961 were lost from the housing stock. In addition, 15% of all units built between 1920 and 1945 were taken out of the stock.

The 9000 dwelling units currently existing which were built before 1920 are now reaching the end of their normal life expectancy. Rehabilitation programs and funds must be available in order to rehabilitate those units whose life can be feasibily extended.

Most of Edmonton's housing stock was built in the post-war period 1945 to 1960. It can be expected therefore, that the significant rehabilitation and reconstruction period in Edmonton's life will begin around the turn of the century. Thus, although demolition is not a significant influence currently on the expansion rate of the housing stock, it could become more important as the housing stock ages.

CHAPTER 4 HOUSING NEED IN THE CITY OF EDMONTON

4.1 Introduction The purpose of this chapter is to describe housing "need" in Edmonton, in order to provide some base information for the development of policy alternatives in Chapter 6. Terms of Reference (5) and (6) are addressed.

The chapter begins with articulating an operational definition of need, and then goes on to describe in further detail the variables used: income levels and patterns of household expenditure upon housing. Throughout the chapter, differentiation is made between those households which rent and those which own.

It should be noted that for the purposes of this Chapter only, data refer to the City rather than to the Census Metropolitan Area. This choice was made in order that no distortion of the requirement for municipal housing programs might arise.

4.2 Definition Housing need is defined as the extent of housing requirements which cannot be fulfilled by normal market operations. Housing need is not necessarily the same as housing wants, and it is one of the roles of the public sector to determine the extent to which housing wants constitute housing need. It has been concluded elsewhere in this study that the housing wants of Canadians are becoming more expensive to provide for, and that Canadians will soon be required, out of necessity, to make some adjustments in their value systems. The public sector must become involved in identifying what constitutes an "adequate" level of housing.

In this study, housing need has been defined solely in terms of inadequate Incomes, and an attempt has been made to identify the full extent .of the gap between what is being supplied and what

65 households can afford to pay. The difference between these two variables has been termed "housing need". Although it is generally accepted that the public sector should be involved in meeting housing need, there are numerous mechanisms available for public involvement, and there is no general agreement as to what level of involvement is acceptable. Thus, housing need should not be equated with the magnitude of municipal housing programs. In addition, many of the households identified as being in need of housing may not in fact be eligible for current housing programs such as public housing or assisted homeownership.

To assist further in defining housing need, it is advisable to refer to the public housing program criteria and the assisted homeownership program criteria. Under public housing, the following criteria are used: 1.

Percentage of income paid towards rent;

Ability of household to afford better accommodation at the present rate in Edmonton, including presence of other assets;

Existence of a family split;

Conditions in which household is living.

Until November, 1975, the assisted homeownership program based its criteria on the income of the family (that is, it had to be between certain levels), and the number of dependent children. The income restrictions have now been lifted.

Since income is the prime characteristic in determining whether a household will be able to afford accommodation at the current prices in the region, or whether it will be classed as a needy household, it is well to begin the discussion of need by examining the income distribution of Edmonton households. Data supporting the conclusions reached in this chapter are provided in Appendix 7.

4.3 Income Distribution Figure 23 provides an illustration of the distribution of household income in 1961, 1971 and 1975 (estimated). Although incomes have been rising, they have also been increasing their spread about the average. From 1961 to 1971, even though the proportion at the high

66 end of the scale increased, there remained a constant proportion of households at the low end.

Figure 23

Cumulative Percentage Distribution of Annual household Income, Edmonton CMA, 1961,1971,1975 100 (3-1S*

PERCENT CUMULATIVE

75 t I

/ / / I

/ y t / 4,7 si / .11/

<1000 2000 4000 6000 8.500

*Estimated

12,500

17500

20.000+

HOUSEHOLD INCOME (V

Source: Table 46

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September,1975 .

Other research indicates that, in spite of income equalization programs, the gap between rich and poor in Canada is slightly wider than it was thirty years ago.* Households in the lower 40% of income earners are only increasing their liabilities each year, while the top 60% are increasing their assets. (Table 53). Thus, despite welfare programs, the proportion of low income households has not decreased. 4.31 Income and Age The information in Figure 24 will assist in identifying the households which tend to earn the least incomes, by age of the household head. The chart illustrates the distribution of family households according to five income quintiles. It should be noted that this infoLmation is not available for non-family households. The income quintile *Samuelson, P.A., Economics, p. 151-152, 3rd Canadian Edition, 1971

67 refers to a 20% portion of all households earning either the lowest fifth of household incomes, the second lowest fifth, or so forth. Figure 24 shows that the family households with head less than 25 years of age tended towards the bottom three quintiles; as household heads increase in age, they gradually increase their dominance of the upper income quintiles, to the highest income households of the 45 to 54 age groups. After 55 years of age, however, a household returns to the lower quintiles since its income earning power is considerably reduced. This information has important implications for predicting the future housing need potential of various population structures. For example, after 1986 the over 65 age group becomes slightly more dominant in the age structure, a shift which could imply the need for greater government involvement in housing programs.

Figure 24

CUMULATIVEPERCENT

100%

Distribution of Family Households by Income Quintile ani Age of Hear, Edmonton CMA,1971

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ AGE OF HEAD INCOME QUINTILE ElOver $12287 L:L..2$9235 -12,287

Source: Table 47

D$7101-9234 I:3 $4591-7100

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Deportment Research and Long Range Planning Branch September, 1975

Ej Less than $4591

68 4.32 Senior Citizens Senior citizens, as indicated above, have relatively low total incomes. Data from 1971 indicate that, among senior citizen renters, 53% had an income of less than $3000 in that year. Among senior citizens who owned a home, 30% had incomes of less than $3000. In total, approximately 6075 elderly households earned less than $3000 annually from all sources. Senior citizens comprised 39% of all households in this income category.

4.33 Single Parent Families With Female Head A household commonly identified as "needy" is that of the one parent family in which the household head is female. Figure 25 illustrates the disparity between the income distribution of this special household type and that of the male heads of families.

Figure 25

Distribution of Families by 1970 Income Group of Head Edmonton CMA 1970

CUMUL ATIVE

Female Headâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; Single Parent

O. 0.1

â&#x20AC;˘

.14

<2,000 2.500 3.500 4.500 5,500

7000

9,000

INCOME GROUP (S)

Source: Table 50 Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September, 1975

11,000

13,000

15.000 4-

69 In 1971, average annual income of the male head of a family was $8853, as compared with the annual income of a female family head of $3758 per annum. There were 9795 family households headed by a female in the CMA in 1971. Of these, 4300 families or 44% earned under $3000.

4.34 Non-Family Households In addition to senior citizen households and single parent family households, one other special category of household tended to earn incomes under $3000 in 1971. This was the non-family household generally single person - under the age of 65. An estimated 4805 households fell into this category. Of these, 86% were renting.

4.4 Income Versus Housing Expenditure: Rents Although it is useful to have an indication of income distributions, the critical information with respect to housing need is the relative proportion of housing expenditure to income. This situation can be examined with respect to both homeowners and renters. However, because homeowners earn equity as a result of their monthly payments while renters do not, a high housing expenditure to income ratio is considered more severe for renters. Thus, the greater part of this chapter is devoted to examining the housing cost to income relationship for renters.

Generally, it is suggested (by Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation, for example) that a household should not pay more than 25% of its gross income towards housing. In this study, overpayment is defined as spending over 30% of total household income on housing. The additional 5% was introduced into the criterion in order to reflect recent increases in the proportion actually being spent.

Figure 26 indicates the proportion of households overpaying for their rent in 1971 according to income level. In total, 16,250 renting households in the City earning under $10,000 were overextending themselves for housing in 1971. Of these, 8000 were spending in excess of 50% of their income on rent.

70 In conclusion, well over one-quarter of all renting households were overpaying for housing in 1971 (with the housing expenditure guideline defined as 30% of income). Households spending more than one-half of their income for shelter constituted 13.0% of all renting households for 1971.

Figure 26

Households Overpaying for Rent, City of Edmonton 1971

12.000 —

10.000F— Family NF— Non.farnily

8.000-

8 6.000—

.4.000-

2.000— F

No !nowlo

Source: Table 52

<1.000

1.000—

3.000— 5.000 HOUSEHOLD INCOME (S)

5,000— 7,000

7.00010.000

Paying more than 50% to rent Paying more than 30% to rent Paying under 30% to rent

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September, 1975

The issue of renters overpaying is more a problem of income than a direct problem of housing cost. This statement is supported when one considers the high proportion of households overpaying even in 1971, when rents were relatively low and apartment vacancy rates were high. Although rents had been rising relatively slowly compared with the costs of home ownership in the period 1961 - 1971, the data

71 in Table 55 indicate that incomes of low income households rose even more slowly. As a result, in 1969 lowest income households were paying 35% of their income towards housing, compared with 29% in 1964. In contrast, the proportion of income spent by highest income households on housing did not change, remaining stable at 12%.

Although, considering recent rent increases, the proportion of households over-extending themselves for rent may have been higher in 1975 than in 1971, the data provided above and in Section 3.32 support a conclusion that the problem of renters overpaying is not one which is new to Edmonton in 1976. Nor does it appear to be a problem of rents being too high, as an examination of trends in the rent index will attest (Figure 19). Rather, it appears that incomes of households at the lower end of the distribution are too low.

One method of equalizing the ratio of incomes to housing for the low income household is rent control. This approach has been implemented in a number of centers in North America, and has recently been announced for Alberta. Although such regulation may prevent the "gouging" which could occur in a period of acute shortage, experience indicates that rent controls tend to act as a major disincentive to the construction of rental accommodation, and thus are a long-term barrier to the solution of the problem of increasing supply at reasonable cost.

More direct solutions to the problem would appear to be in the area of direct subsidy to the household paying too great a proportion of its income towards housing. At the same time, to reduce the cost of such subsidies to the public sector in the long run, incentives should be provided to the building industry to build rental accommodation at prices affordable by low-income households. The Federal Government announced in November, 1975 expansion of programs whose purpose it would be to encourage such accommodation (Refer to Appendix 10).

4.5 Need for Rental Assistance by Housing Type Section 4.4 estimated that a total of 16,250 renting households in 1971 were in need of housing assistance of some type. If one

72 assumes that only the low income households would be "desperate" (since higher incomes would allow for greater choice), and that low income in 1971 meant an income lower than $3000, then the following conclusions are reached as to "core" housing need:

RENTING HOUSEHOLDS EARNING LESS THAN $3000 PAYING OVER 30% OF THEIR INCOME TOWARDS HOUSING (CITY OF EDMONTON, 1971) Age of Head Type of Household

20 to 55

55 - 65

Over 65

Total

Family

2,995

195

435

3,625

Non-Family

2,145

700

1,575

4,420

TOTAL

5,140

895

2,010

8,040

The core housing need is thus estimated at 8,000 households, a figure which represents approximately 6% of all households in the City.

In terms of requirements for dwelling unit types, Federal Census data indicate that the majority of the non-family households were single persons. Such households would require relatively small units, with convenient access (especially for senior citizens).

Census data also show that the low income family household tended to have more children than the City average: for example, households headed by a female had 2.1 children per household, compared with the city average of 1.6 children per household. This figure can be used as a guide in designing family public housing.

Federal and Provincial housing assistance programs currently operate to alleviate two of the three types of need; however, there are no programs for non-family households under the age of 65, other than student housing programs.

In addition to the "core" housing need, 8210 renting households with incomes between $3000 and $10,000 in 1971 were paying more than 30% of their income towards housing. These were distributed by type as follows:

73 RENTING HOUSEHOLDS EARNING $3000 to $10,000 PAYING OVER 30% OF GROSS INCOME TOWARDS HOUSING (1971) (CITY OF EDMONTON) Family Households

5,190

Non-Family Households

3,020

TOTAL

8,210

4.6 Income Versus Housing Expenditure: Ownership

4.61 The Affordability of Current Stock Actual data which relates total monthly mortgage payments to income is more difficult to obtain than similar information for rents. Alberta Housing Corporation will not lend if a household's gross debt ratio (for mortgage repayments) would exceed 35% or if its total debt ratio (of all debts) would exceed 40%. Private companies are more flexible in their lending policies, although they have an interest in ensuring that debt ratios remain as low as possible in order to protect their investment. Recent indications from mortgage companies are that in 75% of current mortgages, the household's gross debt ratio is 30% to 35%. However, 38% is not uncommon.

In general, the rationale for high debt ratios in the present is twofold: households are assuming that future incomes will rise, and they are placing emphasis on expected increases in value of their property.

Although recent data is not yet available, indications were in 1972 that on the average, the Canadian household was spending less of its income on housing now than it was in 1964. In the years between 1964 and 1972, the average spent upon housing declined from 16.5% of total income to 14.8%. However, as indicated in Section 4.4 on rents, this average reflects trends among both upper and lower income households, and lower income households have in fact been paying more towards housing.

In addition, it can be speculated that since 1972, the average proportion of income spent on housing by households may have increased again, as a result of increasing mortgage rates which influence the magnitude of monthly payments significantly.

74 A general rule of thumb which is often used to determine whether a household is overpaying for its accommodation is that it should not be buying a house valued at more than two and one-half times the household's annual income. Thus, a household earning $16,000 should not attempt to purchase a dwelling priced at over $40,000. At this income level, and using the 30% guideline, the household should spend no more than $400 a month on housing costs. A $35,000 mortgage over 25 years at 11% amounts to approximately 400 to $440 per month, depending on how the payments are determined. At lower interest raes, payments become less: for example, at 8%, payments are approximately $330 to $350. At higher interest rates, the guideline of 2.5 should be reduced to recognize the additional expense that interest plays in monthly housing expenditures.

It is estimated that 45%, or 41,000, single family dwellings in the sub-region would have sold for prices over $40,000 in early 1975. Although many of these houses might have originally been purchased at lower mortgage rates, to purchase them now would most likely require that the buyer obtain second mortgage financing. Assuming then, that because of the costs of mortgages (either new or second), the 2.5 rule would still apply, a household would require at least $16,000 income and more likely $18,000 to purchase such a home. In 1975, an estimated 30% of households had an income over $15,000, while approximately 19% had an income over $18,000. Assuming a minimum income of $18,000 is required to purchase a $45,000 dwelling, only 27,000 households could afford to buy 41,000 dwellings.

The main conclusion which can be drawn from this analysis is that the proportion of households which can afford to purchase houses at reasonable expense is dwindling, as values, and especially interest rates, rise. The households first affected are those with lower incomes. The Federal Government has recognized this trend in its announcement on November 3, 1975, regarding expansion of existing programs. (Refer to Appendix 10). In the words of the Federal background paper: "There is also a growing group of people who used to be able to look after their own needs but now need some public help." The Assisted Home Ownership Program is intended to assist

75 such households. The Government paper places the blame for this situation not only upon rising costs, however, but also upon the consumer who regards his house as an investment and wishes to make a profit on it so that he can improve his housing standard and economic condition.

4.62 Assisted Home Ownership Program Under the Assisted Home Ownership Program, Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation lends funds to qualifying households and then provides grants to reduce the interest payment according to the household income to prevent a household from paying more than 25% of its income on housing. Basically, the effect of the program is to reduce the impact of increasing interest rates for housholds wishing to purchase moderately priced housing. However, any program which makes it easier to buy has the effect of increasing demand. At a time when demand is already high, therefore, the AHOP program has mixed impacts. The November, 1975 announcement expanded the program to all income levels, thus qualifying any household of over two persons for assistance in buying a moderately priced house. Previous to the announcement, the Planning Department had estimated using Census data, that between 10,000 to 15,000 family households qualified for AHOP. A much higher number would now qualify. Presumably, it is the intention of the Federal Government to encourage the construction of moderately priced housing by increasing the demand for such housing.

4.63 Alternative Fo lais of Ownership As a result of the high ratio of house payments to income, other forms of home ownership have appeared on the market recently and have been relatively successful in allowing households to earn equity without over-extending themselves on payments. Data available to the Planning Department indicate that condominiums, especially, are selling well; however, they are still regarded as an interim form of home ownership by most young households, pending their ability to purchase a single family dwelling. This is partly the result of the Canadian value system, but also the result of multiple family developments not designed or constructed for ownership. multiple family living is to become an acceptable alternative to

single family, different standards for such developments must be developed and encouraged. These standards would recognize the need for condominiums to provide many of the amenities of a single family home.

Cooperative housing is relatively new in the City but should have the potential to become an acceptable alternative, if it receives the support of all levels of government. However, cooperative housing reflects a different attitude than the "house as investment" one, since profits do not accrue to the individual. Thus it may not appeal to the majority of society unless a shift in values Occurs.

4.7 Summary The previous sections of this Chapter have identified the housing need problem as follows: 1)

a proportion of society having insufficient income to obtain rental housing without having to overspend significantly.

a segment of society, for which home ownership is becoming increasingly difficult, due to the rising cost of monthly payments relative to incomes.

If one assumes that improvement of these situations is necessary and that government intervention is a means of doing so, the following suggestions can be made for each situation: (1) For low income renting households; a)

income supplements;

government encouragement, and active involvement in, the production of low cost rental accommodation.

(2) For moderate income households; a)

government incentives to encourage the construction of moderate, single family housing;

encouragement of other forms of home ownership through development of acceptable alternatives to single family dwellings;

increase the opportunities for ownership available to such households by discouraging people "who are already well-housed from taking advantage of the situation to improve their accommodation and economic position beyond any reasonable need".* Such disincentives could occur through amendments to the current laws making profits from the sale of a home tax-exempt, or from present government policy to provide favorable mortgage money to only households below certain income levels;

programs such as the Assisted Homeownership Program which provide interest reducing grants to households wishing to purchase moderately priced housing.

4.8 The Extent of Government Intervention One of the factors influencing the decision regarding the magnitude of future government housing programs will be the extent to which the government should become involved in housing production. In 1975, approximately 5% of the housing stock in the City had been built with direct public assistance. This figure was comprised of 1450 public housing units, 1550 senior citizen units and 4000 limited dividend units. On a regional basis, between 4% and 5% of the stock was publicly built.

To satisfy the "core" housing need identified previously, at least 8000 households (6%) should receive assittance, either through the construction of subsidized housing or, if accommodation is available, in the form of rent supplements on existing housing. A construction program of 800 units a year, over 10 years (in addition to the other privately initiated housing targets identified in Chapter II) would result in approximately 7% of the stock in the City having been constructed with direct public assistance by 1986. This proportion does not include potential rental units constructed with government mortgages at subsidized interest rates.

* Federal Government background paper, Appendix 10

78 However, it is not likely that the "core" housing need problem is one which can be completely solved by the construction of 8000 units of publicly assisted housing. Unless a major change occurs in the societal distribution of wealth, a proportion of the increase in households each year is likely to be of low income; therefore government assistance programs to redistribute wealth will always be necessary.

The municipality can become involved in the production of housing and in the provision of assistance to consumers in a number of ways. For example:

(a) support of housing schemes put forward by cooperatives and non-profit housing associations, through the leasing of Cityowned land; (b) active involvement in public housing programs and senior citizen housing programs; (c) evaluation of feasibility of incorporation of a Municipal nonprofit housing corporation; (d) the evaluation of the feasibility of establishing a municipal loans program for rehabilitation; (e) evaluation of the feasibility of initiating housing programs for non-family households under 65 through senior government assistance; (f) establishment of various programs to provide info!. lation to the housing consumer; and (g) establishment of housing production targets to be aimed for by the private sector.

Generally, research undertaken on government housing programs has supported and encouraged municipal involvement. Municipal involvement provides a greater depth of understanding on the nature of housing need not generally attainable at the senior levels of government. (See for example M. Dennis and S. Fish, Programs in Search of a Policy). At the same time, however, it must be recognized that municipalities lack sufficient resources for undertaking housing programs without major assistance from the senior levels of government.

CHAPTER 5 SUB-REGIONAL PATTERNS IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING

5.1 Introduction The purpose of this chapter is to outline locational patterns in the distribution of housing and population within the Edmonton subregion in order to deal with term of reference (7). The Chapter begins with a comparison of growth trends between the City and its "fringe", and then devotes itself to discussing trends within the City itself.

5.2 The City and the Sub-Region The City has absorbed, on average, 80% of sub-regional housing starts since 1962. However, as shown on Figure 27, over the last five years, the City's proportion of regional housing starts has

Figure 27

City of Edmonton Starts as a Percentage of Starts in the CMA 1962 - 1974

•\ \ .

, ir.........*••••••.•

ih-----------

. , .

Apartment and Other

$ 444

• 47:

$ $ $

/,'

/0 I I i .

$$ $

Total Starts s

Single Family and Duplex •••••••

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970 TIME

Source: Table 58 Prepared

by:

The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September, 1975

1972

1974

80 declined to 70%. Although most multiple family development has been occurring in the City, its share of single family starts in the sub-region has declined to about 50%. Whether this trend continues will depend partly on the relative availability and price of single family lots in the City and the suburban towns.

The analysis undertaken in this study (described in Appendix 8) indicates that there is sufficient raw land inside the boundaries of current Outline Plan Areas to enable the City to continue absorbing 70% of regional housing starts to 1997 (assuming that land will be serviced as demand arises and assuming that Terwillegar Heights is annexed to the City). Other land inside the City boundaries not committed for development could accommodate demand beyond 2001. If Edmonton continues to absorb 50% of single family starts in the Sub-Region, 75% of row housing starts, 90% of apartment starts, and 20% of new mobile homes, approximately 36 square miles of land would be absorbed into residential and related uses in the City between 1971 and 2001. An additional 27 square miles would be absorbed outside the City boundaries in the urban fringe comprising the remainder of the region. Thus in total, a little over two square miles per year is expected to be absorbed for residential use in the sub-region. If the distribution of growth alters, land could be absorbed more or less quickly in the city. Similarly, if the ratio of dwelling units to land acreage changes, land absorption rates would also change.

5.3 Household Distribution in the City of Edmonton In order to understand the housing role currently played by various areas in the City, this section describes some patterns apparent from the 1971 Federal Census. Figures 28 and 29 indicate the 1971 distribution of non-family households and apartments respectively. As can be seen, there is a strong similarity in distribution patterns. Figure 30 and 31 on the other hand, indicate the distribution of family households and single family dwellings. Again, there is a strong correlation. The four maps provide support for the proposition

presented in Chapter 2 that the stage in the life cycle of â&#x20AC;˘a household will influence its choice of dwelling type and location. Row housing, as shown in Figure 32, also shows similar patterns to the distribution of family households, although to a lesser degree than single family dwellings. It should be remembered that the Federal Census definition of "row" includes dwellings such as side by side duplexes and attached dwellings.

The patterns in Figures 28 to 32 inclusive indicate that the inner areas of the City tend to house the non-family households, while the outer areas of the City tend to house the family housholds. These areas "inner" or "outer" can be defined in terms of the period in which they were developed, in order to make consistent comparisons among them and to understand the housing role played by different areas.

Figure 33 illustrates the results of this exercise. The inner city has been defined as those portions of the City built up primarily before 1946. The inner and outer suburbs have been defined as those areas built up between 1946 and 1960 and between 1960 and 1971 respectively. Finally, the Outline Plan Areas are those areas currently being developed. As a result of the pattern of distribution of households and dwelling types, there are significant differences in household size according to the areas of the City under examination. For example, average household size in the inner City was 2.6 in 1971. This compared with average household size in the inner suburbs of 3.6, in the outer suburbs of 4.0, and in the outline plan areas of 4.1.

As discussed earlier in this study average household size is expected to decline to approximately 2.7 by 1986. In order to achieve this decline from the levels in 1971, household size must fall in all areas of the City. It is estimated that average household sizes in the Outline Plan Areas will decline to approximately 3 persons per household; as a result, densities will not be as great as originally planned at the time the Outline Plans were adopted by Council. Table 62 indicates that densities could be expected to

Legend 7=7:7 Over 50X 30 — 50% 20— 307. t'I'• 10 — 20% Less than 10'7.

111.110•INNIMII

M•111•••11

imersmommilmall•••mm....

M .

1971 Census Tract and City Boundaries Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department, Research and Long Range Planning Branch, October 1975

Source: Census Tract Bulletins 1971 Federal Census

Figure 28

Non- Family Households as a Percent of Total Households, by Census Tract, Edmonton — 1971

Legend Over 60'. 40 — 60 % 20 — 40> 10 — 20'. Less than 10%

1971 Census Tract and City Boundaries Prepared try: The City at Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch, October 1975 Source: Census Tract Bulletins 1971 Federal Census

Figure 29

Apartments as a Percent of Occupied Dwelling Units, by Census Tract, Edmonton — 1971

:::::::::::::::::::::•>:•:•:•:•:•:•:4K1,::'>*:*:, ..„................i:;:Efi.1;.:!.'f: ,iix i:•?. . . . . : .1!.1 "iii.111 : .: . .... ....1a: . .. ... .. .. ... .....1. ..... .. : ...........1 .:2;;;;;;;;;;;;.;•;•

Legend

•'•:•;::::::::•:•:•::

Over 90Y.

. ".".."'". ........7.: : : . ::..... ......... • ... • • • .......... • • .• ..: • • • 1 • ............••••••••••••••• •

81-90 Y. 71 — 80Y.

...... •"."""'" . • . • • . • 7,0•• •• ••• ...........• ......,,,,••••••,..... .........• • ••••••• •• .........• .............• • • • ....... • • • • •

51 — 70% Less than 50Y.

......... .....:. ..,.....,................. ........ ... • • .... ......... ....... ....... •. . ... ............ ...

..:.x.x.; • ••••••:•••••*:•••••• .

................,,••••• • • . ........••••••• • • • ••' ........••••••.• ...•••••• ..• .......... • .. • • . . • . • ...•

• • ..... ••••• .......

.11021.1

•

1971 Census Tract and

,:•••,••••••••

City Boundaries

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Plannalg Department, Research and Long Range Planning Branch, October 1975

Source: Census Tract Bulletins 1971 Federal Census

Figure 30

Family Households as a Percent of Total Households, by Census Tract, Edmonton — 1971

Legend Over 9O> 70 — 90 50 — 70 30 — 50 Less than 30

1971 Census Tract and City Boundaries Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department, Research and Long Range Planning Branch, October 1975

Source: Census Tract Bulletins 1971 Federal Census

Figure 31

Single Family Dwellings as a Percent

of Occupied Dwelling Units, by Census Tract, Edmonton — 1971

Legend 20 — 50 X 10 — 20 X 5 — 10 X Less than 5 X

1971 Census Tract and City Boundaries

• I

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department, Research and Long Range Planning Branch, October 1975 Source: Census Tract Bulletins 1971 Federal Census

Figure 32

Row Housing as a Percent of Occupied Dwelling Units, by Census Tract, Edmonton — 1971

; â&#x20AC;¢

Legend Inner City (built up before 1946) Inner Suburb (1946-1960) Outer Suburb (1960-1970) Outline Plan Area (1970+)

F-

1971 Census Tract and City Boundaries Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department, Research and Long Range Planning Branch, October 1975 IN

â&#x20AC;˘ VINI=MINO

Source: Census Tract Bulletins 1971 Federal Census

Figure 33

Residential Areas of Edmonton

88 â&#x20AC;˘ fall from 22 persons per gross acre to approximately 18 persons per gross acre:. These changes in density could have significant implications For school boundaries planning, as it may be necessary to resort to methods such as bussing students in the future to maintain school districts.

5.4 The Distribution of Population Growth in the City Almost all parts of Edmonton, except for the Outline Plan Areas, are experiencing a net population decline. In the four year period from 1971 to 1975, the inner city, inner suburbs and outer suburbs experienced a combined net loss of 20,500 people. Except for a few areas such as that west of the Central Area or east of the University, all areas have been declining in population since 1971. Figure 34 indicates the absolute trends of population change in the City in this four year period, and Figure 35 illustrates these trends schematically.

Growth then, is occurring primarily in the outskirts of the City, rather than in the area close to the core. In the four year period 1971 to 1975, the Outline Plan Areas grew by 34,000 people, absorbing not only the net City increase of 13,500, but also the net population loss of 20,500 from the inner areas. This pattern of growth is costly in terms of servicing and land utilization. Although no detailed research has been undertaken, it is thought that much of the population decline in the inner city is a result of decreasing household sizes as households reach the "empty nest" stage of the life cycle. In addition, the lack of recent significant apartment redevelopment may have had an influence, although population decline was also noticeable in the years 1968-1971, when apartment redevelopment was strong.

The most significant growth areas among the Outline Plan Areas are Mill Woods in the southeast and Northeast Edmonton. Together these areas accommodated nearly 50% of population growth in the early years of the 1970's. These two areas have developed quickly primarily because of two reasons: opportunity

because the land

was serviced and available, builders and consumers alike chose it; and cost

land in these two areas was relatively cheaper than in

Legend Population Change

17777Z,ZZ,ZZ:17W' ••

Greater than 900 Increase 500 to 900 100 to 500 100 to -100 Stable -100 to -500 -500 to -900 Decrease Greater than -900

1971 Census Tract and City Boundaries Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch, October 1975 0••••••••019

6111111==•311.

Source: Table 63

Figure 34

Population Change in Edmonton, 1971 -1975

Legend

eigo .:%â&#x20AC;˘:â&#x20AC;˘: 00%

Major Growth Areas Minor Growth Areas Area of Net Population Decrease

Source: Table 63

Figure 35

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September, 1975

Population Growth , 1971 -1975

Figure 36

Residential Development in the Outline Plan Areas and Outer Suburbs as of June 30,1975

4,000-

3,000co

Ed 2,000 -

1,000-

c3 ED Source: Table 64

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September. 1975

Single Family Multiple Family

RRRRRRRRRRRRR a; ar, a "tom ggggg

â&#x20AC;˘

. _ inner North CS St

Southeast Industrial \

....... 68 ......... ..... .00110.0411.0 ........ ........ I t ..... att

Source: Table 64

Figure 37

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Branch September 1975

Relative Shares of Development in the Outline Plan Areas, 1971-1975

Source: Table 64

Figure 38

Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department Research and Long Range Planning Bronch September, 1975

Projected Distribution of Growth in the Outline Plan Areas, 1975 - 1986

other areas of the City. These trends are illustrated on Figure 36 and 37.

Figure 38 shows the projected distribution of growth among the Outline Plan Areas assuming that the current trends remain relatively unchanged. That is, Mill Woods and Northeast Edmonton are expected to continue to absorb approximately 25% each of the growth in the outline plan areas. The patterns illustrated on Figure 38 are based on assumptions regarding the relative costs of land and measures of accessibility.

Although current trends can be used with some degree of confidence in predicting the distribution of future population growth among the Outline Plan Areas, they are less valid with respect to distribution of growth between the inner areas of the city and the outer suburbs. As indicated earlier, the inner city has been experiencing a net population decline due apparently to decreasing household sizes as households pass through the life cycle. Currently, the proportion of family households in the inner areas of the City is not high. Prospects for future population growth depend on two variables: the extent to which family households move back into the inner areas of the city, and the extent of redevelopment allowed.

5.5 Alternatives for the Distribution of Future Population Growth in the City The purpose of this section is to outline two broad alternatives for the distribution of future population growth in the City. Although these alternatives are by no means the only ones possible, they serve to illustrate the nature of decisions which must be made.

To summarize current trends: population growth is occurring on the City's outskirts, while the presently built up areas decline in population. Family households - which have greatest potential for increases in size - live in the suburbs, while non-family households and apartments tend towards the inner city.

Basically, two alternatives exist: (1) The present trend can continue, with the majority of population growth occurring in the suburbs, and apartment development taking place primarily in the inner city.

(2) The present trend can be encouraged to change, by creating incentives for family households to move back into the inner areas of the City, and by encouraging apartments to be built in the suburbs.

These two alternatives are not mutually exclusive, in that some combination could be chosen. A combination has the advantage in that it would result in a variety of environments in the inner city neighbourhoods, creating both areas for non-family households and for family households. It is suggested that the final alternative of a combination of approaches is the most feasible and most reasonable under the circumstances.

The projections estimate that approximately 3500 apartment units must be built annually in the sub-region to 1981, and that this number will begin to decline after this year. From 1981 to 1986, an estimated 2700 apartment units would be required. Apartments can only be built in the City if land is available for them. Currently, the majority of serviced multiple family land is available in the inner city. In 1971, over 800 acres of multiple family land in the inner city were zoned but not developed to their maximum. On the other hand, it is estimated that only 200 acres of zoned and serviced low density apartment land is currently available in the Outline Plan Areas. This would be sufficient to accommodate two to three year's demand for apartments.

Thus, unless the city can continue to maintain a high rate of servicing to ensure availability of multiple family land in the Outline Plan Areas, it will be essential to redevelop more land in the inner city in order to accommodate the required number of apartment units over the next few years. The critical decision will be to allocate the units to those areas which can accommodate them most easily without disrupting other inner city neighbourhoods.

96 In conclusion, it appears that the direction the City must follow in order to fulfill required apartment demand is the following: 1.

Allow continued inner city redevelopment in designated growth nodes;

Evaluate the zoning of multiple family sites in the Outline Plan Areas:

Increase the rate of servicing of multiple family sites in the suburbs, including ensuring adequate transportation facilities to link apartment sites to the central city.

At the same time, it is recognized that inner city neighbourhoods have value and should be preserved as much as possible. The tremendous investment in infrastructure in the inner city is a value which must not be ignored. Therefore, it is concluded that the City should simultaneously embark on a program of preservation and rehabilitation, encouraging young families where possible to move into the central city. Such a program could even be extended to include judicious redevelopment in certain portions of the inner city to innovative, higher density family accommodation.

CHAPTER 6 HOUSING POLICY IN EDMONTON

6.1 Introduction Term of reference (8) required that the study deal with "positive and negative effects upon supply by existing practices and policies"; this has been interpreted to mean an examination of current housing policies with respect to issues identified during the study. The chapter therefore begins with an analysis of present housing policy, and then summarizes the conclusions reached in the study thus far. For each issue identified, a range of alternative actions is presented which the municipal and senior governments might undertake.

6.2 Current Housing Policies To determine future municipal direction on the issues discussed in this report, it is necessary first to examine current policies with respect to housing and residential development. These are contained in the following documents and statements:

(1) The General Plan (May, 1971) (2) Joint Submission to the Provincial Government - In Search of a Provincial Housing Policy for Albertans (February, 1973). (3) Report of the Housing Task Force - May, 1974. (4) Various resolutions passed by Council with respect to housing. (5) Implementation tools: The Zoning Bylaw, Outline Plans, Development and Servicing Agreements, Neighbourhood Improvement Programs.

6.21 General Plan The objectives and policy principles of the General Plan tend to be more qualitative in orientation, rather than outlining means of increasing the quantity of housing. The plan sets out a number of objectives relating to variety, safety, health, convenience, privacy, preservation of existing stable neighbourhood, conservation and rehabilitation. On the whole, the plan is primarily oriented towards controlling residential growth in the suburbs. The question of market intervention by municipal governments is touched on, but the trade off between guidance of growth and need for competition among the industry

98 is not resolved. Similarly, the Plan deals with the question of inner city redevelopment, but does not provide a guide for decision making on the question of amount of inner city redevelopment. Finally, in terms of the degree of active municipal involvement in housing, the Plan once again touches on the issue, but refrains from giving specific guidance.

The municipality has always been faced with difficulty in balancing conflicting objectives of maintaining a sufficient quantity of housing while at the same time, ensuring that development is of high quality. On the one hand, it is a facilitator, while on the other hand it is a regulator.

As a facilitator, the City designates land for development, coordinates servicing of the land, and has more recently become involved in major land banking and housing programs. As a regulator, the City implements plan approvals, development and servicing agreements, development and building permits. The General Plan currently provides little guidance as to how these two objectives can be balanced.

6.22 Joint Submission to the Provincial Government In February, 1973, the Cities of Calgary and Edmonton jointly sponsored the submission of a document respecting housing policy to the Provincial Government. This document contained the following statement:

"The housing goal for Calgary and Edmonton is to ensure that an adequate supply of safe, decent and sanitary housing accommodation will be available at a reasonable cost to the consumer and meet the collective needs of our citizens at all times."

6.23 Report of the Housing Task Force At the City Council meeting of May 27, 1974, Council dealt with a report from an administrative task force reviewing housing policy and approved the following amendment to a recommendation from the Public Affairs Committee:

99 "That City Council adopt and approve the following general housing goals: to assist senior governments to assure an adequate supply of housing for low income people (and) to clarify the role that housing is to play as a function of local government at reasonable cost."

Although these goals are imprecise due to the use of terms such as "adequate", "reasonable", and "collective needs", the statements do indicate that Council supports in principle the need for government intervention to provide housing for low income households. However, the extent to which Council believes the City should become directly involved in housing programs apparently changed during the period from 1973 to 1974, as reflected in the different tone of the two statements.

6.24 Other Policy Documents and Decisions Current City policy also exists as a result of decisions made by Council from time to time relating to housing. Among major policy decisions are the following: January 21, 1969: The approval of the principle of a balance of public housing with other residential accommodation. July 15, 1969. That the City plan and construct 1000 public housing units in 1970. March 13, 1972: A resolution to require in new residential subdivisions that sufficient land be provided to house 5% of the population in public housing. September 25, 1972: A policy adopted with respect to the inventory of serviced single family lots to be vacant on the market: 900 in total, 300 of which to be in Mill Woods. In other policy resolutions passed by Council, support has been given from time to time to cooperative housing and the provision of City owned land for such housing developments.

100 6.25 Conclusion Although the beginnings of a housing policy exist among current municipal documents, the documents have never been incorporated into a comprehensive statement of policy and procedures, outlining the extent to which the municipal government will intervene in the housing market.

Such a comprehensive statement would need to address itself to five issues:

The extent of Government intervention in the market to influence amount and type of demand.

The extent of Government intervention in the market to influence the nature and amount of supply.

The nature of Government intervention to ease the hardships experienced by low income people unable to afford adequate housing.

The level of Government at which direct involvement in the housing market is desirable.

The location and form of residential development and redevelopment in the City of Edmonton.

6.3 Summary of Conclusions Alternative actions possible by the three levels of government in each of the above five areas are outlined in the following statement of conclusions reached on each term of reference.

I. TERM OF REFERENCE Tend anaZy4.(Iz o ppey and demand, identi6ying gao and unmet needz (inctudez an anaegisz o6 hock/sing pnicez and 6inanciaZ abiZit)e4 o4 conzummz). Conclusion:

101 - Demand is high for three reasons: the post-war baby boom is entering the stage of household formation; Edmontonians appear to reflect common Canadian values with respect to their desires for independence, privacy and housing type; and housing is viewed as an investment and hedge against inflation. - New additions to the housing stock lag primarily in the area of apartment development to fulfill the requirements of housing non-family households. In addition, there appears to be a shortage of family accommodation for lower middle income families who cannot afford to pay high proportions of their income over a long period of time towards housing.

Implication:

Range of Actions Possible:

Educational programs on the cost of our present wants with regard to housing (municipal/provincial/ federal governments). - Educational programs on the benefits of alternative means of satisfying our housing wants (municipal/ provincial/federal governments). - Fiscal measures to influence the attitudes of current consumers towards housing as an investment and hedge against inflation (federal government). - Fiscal measurements to increase production of multiple family accommodation - for example, amendments to the income tax act (federal government).

102 - Incentives to builders for construction of modest housing (federal/orovincial/municipal governments).

Conclusion:

Implication:

- Extrapolating present trends, Edmontonians must either continue to pay high proportions of their income towards housing or be content to accept less expensive alternatives.

Range of Actions Possible:

- Encouragement of innovative methods in construction and design of housing to reduce COSE, through federal/provincial incentives and through municipal planning programs; implies that the City may need to amend its definition of "quality" development. - Formulation of building and design standards for multiple family development so that multiple family development becomes more attractive for long term occupancy by family households; that is, evidence indicates that the more "houselike"

103

a dwelling is, the more attractive it is for longer term occupancy. - Encouragement of alternate forms of ownership and alternate means of providing housing, including "third sector" housing; for example, co-operative housing (federal/provincial/municipal governments). - Provision of funds for servicing of land to increase supply and thus reduce pressure on prices (federal/provincial/municipal governments).

Conclusion:

Edmonton has sufficient land to accommodate nearly 70% of projected regional housing starts to the year 2001.

Implication:

Extrapolating present trends in housing demand, land will be used up relatively rapidly in the Edmonton region: an estimated 65 square miles of land could be absorbed for residential purposes in the region in the 30 year period 1971 to 2001. The present built-up area of Edmonton approximates 80 square miles.

Range of Actions Possible:

- The formulation of a regional and municipal growth policy for the direction and form of residential development (provincial/regional/ municipal governments).

II. TERM OF REFERENCE

Anatyz,i.z o o/tat hou6ing toc,1a by type, dxeLeing chalLacteti4tin, oveA-ctowding, etc. Conclusions:

Compared with many Canadian cities, the data indicate that Edmontonians are relatively well housed.

An estimated 7,000 dwelling units could be structurally sub-standard in the City of Edmonton.

104 3.

Over-crowding is not a significant problem in the City; approximately 1% of dwelling units could be described as severely over-crowded.

Implications:

In general, the standard of housing in Edmonton is very high at present.

Development of specific programs geared to the

Range of Actions Possible:

special problems of sub-standard dwelling units.

III. TERM OF REFERENCE

Eztimatez az to annuaZ attAition Aate thnough pAocezzez o6 Aezoning, pubac wottaz, etc. Conclusions:

Demolition is not a significant factor influencing the expansion of the total housing stock (330 per year in this City on average). However, by the end of the decade, approximately 9,000 dwelling units could be reaching the end of their life expectancy.

Implications:

As the housing stock ages in the remaining years of this century, demolition could become a more significant factor in the net expansion of the housing stock.

Range of Actions Possible:

TV. TERM OF REFERENCE

Rate o pAice ezcaZation by .6actou (and, zeAvicing, &bock/L., money).

105

Conclusions:

The prices of existing housing appear to be rising in conjunction with the prices of new housing

Because of the apparent relationship between

Implications:

prices of new and existing housing, if new house costs can be reduced, there should be a spin-off effect on the costs of existing housing. Because construction costs are still the most significant portion of housing costs, efforts should begin within this sector.

Intervention in market to influence supply

Range of Actions Possible:

(refer to suggested actions under (I) above).

V. TERM OF REFERENCE Ptojection q need OA zoc,ict. howsing by pugAam undeA the National Hatt/sing Act. Conclusions:

In 1971, an estimated 8,000 households, or 6% of all households in this City could be termed in critical need of housing assistance due to inadequate incomes.

106 3.

A third type of household, with the head aged between 55 and 65, numbering 700 or 9%, was the non-family household, for which there is no program under the National Housing Act. Finally, 2,145 households, or 26%, were non-family households with the head under the age of 55. Few housing programs exist for this group.

Housing need was not confined to this "core" group: an additional 8,000 renting households with income under $10,000 paid over 30% of their income towards housing.

Implications:

Government involvement in providing housing

Range of Actions Possible:

assistance can range from income supplements to assistance to housing groups such as co-operatives to the actual creation of low rental housing units by the Government (for example, through a non-profit housing corporation and public housing construction, municipal/provincial/federal governments).

VI. TERM OF REFERENCE Anayz-bs oi oecia ptobt.emz o6 zenioA. czenz. Conclusions:

Households comprised of senior citizens earn among the lowest average total income of all households (including investment income, etc.),

107 and tend to spend more than the guideline of 30% on housing. Over one-third of all dwellings defined as sub-standard are occupied by senior citizen households.

The proportion of senior citizen households

Implications:

will increase between 1986 and 2001 in the Edmonton region. Thus, the unique problems associated with senior citizen housing will become more significant after 1986.

Range of Actions Possible:

Special programs implementable without massive government expenditures to develop senior citizen housing and to assist senior citizens will be necessary.

VII. TERM OF REFERENCE Identi6ication o the houzing iLote being played by the innut city and a the newty developing 4ubdionz. Conclusions:

Implications:

The City will soon be required to make a number of critical decisions with respect to the location and form of residential development and growth. Inner city redevelopment will lead to a more compact city with a greater utilization of infra-structure, but at the same time could result in a potential loss of character in the inner city neighborhoods. Concentration of

108 development in the suburbs, on the other hand, is likely to be a more expensive proposition but will result in preservation of inner city neighbourhoods.

In addition, the form of development and redevelopment could influence the patterns of distribution of family and non-family households.

Range of Actions Possible:

Designation of growth nodes both in the innercity and in the suburbs, with identification of amount and form of development.

Extension of services to accommodate growth nodes.

Evaluation of staging especially with reference to servicing and implications for school boundaries.

VIII. TERM OF REFERENCE Pozitive and negative e66ect4 upon 6upp4 by exizting pAactica and poticia. Conclusions:

At the same time, however, some of the issues identified and the actions suggested relate not to supply but to demand. In any situation of a gap between supply and demand, the gap can be

109 decreased by reducing demand as well as by increasing supply. Therefore, intervention in the housing market by the various levels of government should address itself to demand as well as to supply.

Implications:

The lack of a comprehensive framework of policy means that decision-making could be an uncoordinated process.

Range of Actions Possible:

Define the extent to which this municipal government wishes to become involved in the housing market.

APPENDIX 1 INITIAL TERMS OF REFERENCE, JUNE, 1973

1. What are the major factors influencing the price of shelter in Edmonton and environs. 2. The rate of price escalation identified by factors ie: land, servicing, labor, money. 3. The positive and adverse effects upon supply by existing practices and policies. 4. The attitude of the housing consumer; the attitude of the housing industry. 5. Trend analysis of supply and demand identifying gaps, and unmet need. 6. Identification of special housing needs ie: handicapped, low income, senior citizen, students, etc. 7. The mobility factor of home owners and tenants, the element of freedom of choice to housing selection. 8. The identification of housing role met by inner city areas, newly developing subdivisions in the City, outlying metropolitan communities. 9. Comparison of housing prices and financial committments, effect upon consumer and possible future implications. 10. Analysis of total housing stock by type, dwelling characteristic, overcrowding, etc. 11. Socio-economic analysis of existing trends across the City - identification of consequences. 12. General identification of housing production rates versus effective demand. 13. Problems of the industry. 14. Identification of current municipal role and influence on the production, maintenance, and conservation of housing stock. 15. Estimates as to annual attrition rate through processes of rezoning, public works, deterioration, etc. 16. Examination of experience of limited dividend, condominium, cooperative housing to determine future role in total housing production for metropolitan Edmonton and its spatial distribution. 17. A comparison of Edmonton to other major Canadian cities re housing cost. 18. The ongoing municipal role in land banking vis-a-vis Mill Woods experience.

APPENDIX 2 TERMS OF REFERENCE, NOVEMBER, 1974

Trend analysis of supply and demand, identifying gaps and unmet need. (Includes an analysis of housing prices and financial ability of consumers.)

Analysis of total housing stock by type, dwelling characteristics, overcrowding, etc.

Estimates as to annual attrition rate through processes of rezoning, public works, etc.

Rate of price escalation by factors (land, servicing, labour, money).

Projection of need for social housing by NHA program.

Analysis of special problems of senior citizens.

Identification of the housing role being played by the inner city and the newly developing subdivisions.

Positive and negative effects upon supply be existing practices and policies.

APPENDIX 3 HOUSING DEMAND: TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY

The methodology employed in the study to project housing units first projected the net increase in the number of households between 1971 and 1986 and then linked the projected households to dwelling unit types.

The key variable in both the household projection and the dwelling allocation projection was the "age of household head". The number of households was projected according to trends in the age groups of the projected population; age of the household head was also the variable used to identify and project trends in the distribution of dwelling unit types among households.

This appendix provides a technical outline of the methods used in the projection of household formation.

Total Number of Households, 1976, 1981 and 1986 1.

Population cohort analysis was undertaken for Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area 1961, 1966, 1971. (Table 1)

The total number of households in each population cohort was calculated. (Table 1)

Relationship between households and population cohorts (propensities to become household heads by age group) was determined. (Table 2)

The proportions of households to population by age group were projected, on the basis of percentage change in the previous two five year periods, and on the assumption that the trends toward increasing numbers of households in each age group will continue. (Table 2) This assumption is derived on the basis of the following postulations: (1) earlier age at which children leaving home; (2) increasing separation and divorce rates;

Appendix 3 (3)

greater tendency for people to live as individuals.

Proportions calculated from (4) were then applied to the Medium Subregion Population Projections for the years 1976, 1981 and 1986. (City of Edmonton, Planning Department, 1974). These projections were based on medium fertility and a net regional migration of 9200 persons per annum. No attempt was made at this stage to calculate the number of households within the City, due to the difficulty of estimating intra-regional migration.

The resultant structure of households by age group foLuied the basis of all subsequent work in the Housing Demand Section of the report. (Table 4). It should be noted that the results reflect net changes in the number of households, and therefore reflect household formation. However, no analysis was undertaken of the component processes themselves.

Household Size - 1981 1.

Distribution of households by size in 1981 was determined by using the 1966 and 1971 distribution by age of head as a base. (Table 10)

Projections of the percentage of households in each size group and by each grouping of age of head were made on an iterative basis until the total population so projected was reconciled with total population previously projected for 1981 through the cohort survival method. (Tables 10 and 13)

Household Type - 1981 1.

Using the projected distribution of household by size, all one person households were immediately classified as "non-family".

Using 1966 and 1971 data as a base, the distribution of non-family households by age of head was calculated and projected to 1981, using percentage change in the five year period as a guide. (Table 14)

Appendix 3 3.

The residual between total households and non-family households was calculated for each age category; by definition, this residual became the number of family households in 1981. (Table 11)

Households by Age of Head, Size and Type - 1981 1.

Non-family households were assigned to size group, by age of head, in the following manner: 1966 and 1971 data on the distribution of non-family households by age of head and size of household were analyzed for patterns. The proportion of one person households as a percentage of total non-family households was then projected to 1981. This was reconciled against the proportion of one person households to total households. Using the proportions so deteLmined, the total number of non-family households was calculated from the 1981 household projection. As only two size groups were provided in the data (one person and two or more person households), it was necessary to assume a distribution for those non-family households over one person in order to assign them to size categories. This distribution was as follows:

Number of persons: Percent:

2 persons 80%

Number of Persons: Percent:

3 persons 10%

Number of Persons: Percent:

4 persons 8%

Number of Persons: Percent:

5 + persons 2%

This distribution was applied to every age category equitably, and the number of non-family households in each size grouping according to each age category was calculated. (Table 11)

Since the total number of households for any cell in a given age category and a given size grouping had previously been calculated, the number of family households could be obtained through each cell by merely subtracting the number of non-family households. (Table 11)

Appendix 3 Proportion of Family and Non-Family Households to Population by Type, 1976 and 1986 1.

The method previously described projected the distribution of households for 1981. In order to analyze households in 1976 and 1986 by type, it was necessary to calculate and project proportions of family and non-family households to population by age group. This exercise also provided a method for identifying the main contributor to increasing rates of increase in the number of households (that is, whether family or non-family household formation), and also provided a means of checking the distribution previously calculated for 1981. (Table 2)

Using 1961, 1966 and 1971 data, the proportions of family and nonfamily households to total population in the age group were calculated.

These proportions were also calculated for the 1981 figures calculated previously under "household type". (Table 11)

The trend 1961 - 1966 - 1971 - 1981 was analyzed and proportions estimated for 1976 and 1986. (Table 2)

The number of households of each type for each age group was then calculated for the projection years. (Table 7)

APPENDIX 4 DWELLING UNIT ALLOCATION PROJECTION - TECHNICAL METHODOLOGY

Method I - Simple Projection: Distribution of dwelling types by age of head to 1986 - an extrapolation based on trends in dwelling unit allocation among households by age of head from 1961 to 1971.

The number of households within age group of head were projected for the years 1976, 1981 and 1986 (Household projections - Appendix 3).

Trends in dwelling unit allocation among households by age of head for 1961, 1966 and 1971 were examined (percentage distribution). (Table 16)

Allocation of dwelling units (percentage distribution) was projected to 1976, 1981 and 1986, on the basis of percentage change, on the assumption that the trends identified from 1961 to 1971 would continue. (Table 17)

The projected allocation of dwelling units among households according to the age of the head was then applied to the projection of households for the projection years to 1986. (Table 18)

Method II - Modified Projection: Distribution of dwelling types by age of head to 1986 - a projection based on tenure by age group, and analysis of dwelling unit allocation among households by age of the head, from 1961 to 1971.

The number of households within age group of head were projected 1976, 1981 and 1986 (Household projections - Appendix 3).

Trends in tenure by age of household head for 1961, 1966 and 1971 were identified. (Table 20)

Tenure by age of head was projected to 1981. (Table 20)

Based on the analysis in (3), the allocation of dwelling units by age of head (percentage distribution) was projected a second time. The projection was based on an interpretation of the effects of changes in tenure upon the dwelling type that households of various ages would choose, rather than on an extrapolation of changes. (Table 21)

Appendix 4

The modified projected allocation of dwelling units among households according to the age of the head was then applied to the projection of households for the projection years. (Table 22)

A third method of dwelling allocation was undertaken in order to test the soundness of the conclusions in the second dwelling allocation. (i) Patterns in distribution of dwelling type by household type and tenure were examined for 1966 and 1971. (Tables 23 and 24)

(ii) Using the gross figures projected under the second method, the implications were examined as to the distribution of dwellings among households according to type of household and tenure. The projection indicated that the second, modified projection could be considered reasonable.

APPENDIX 5 - HOUSING DEMAND LIST OF TABLES Table

Population and Household Formation Rates by Household Type, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961, 1966, 1971.

Household Heads as Percentage of Age Cohort by Type of Household, and Age of Household Head, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961, 1966, 1971, Edmonton Subregion, 1976, 1981, 1986

Average Annual Rate of Growth in Population and Number of Households, Edmonton Subregion, 1961 1986.

Population and Household Projection, Edmonton Subregion to 1986.

Projected Average Annual Increase in Number of Households by Age of Household Head; Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961 - 1971, Edmonton Subregion 1971 - 1986.

Assumed Distribution of Households by Age of Head, Edmonton Subregion, 1971.

, 7

Household Distribution by Type, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961, 1966, 1971; Edmonton Subregion, 1976, 1981, 1986.

Percentage Distribution of Household Type By Age Group of Household Head, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961 - 1986.

Distribution of Households by Age of Household Head and Household Type, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961 - 1986.

Distribution of Households by Size and Age of Head, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1966, 1971, and Edmonton Subregion, 1981.

Distribution of Households by Age of Head, Size and Type, Edmonton Subregion, 1981.

Trends in Distribution by Household Size, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1966, 1971; Edmonton Subregion, 1981.

Average Household Size by Age of Head, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1966, 1971, 1981.

Table 14

Non-Family Households by Age of Head and Size of Household; Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1971; Edmonton Subregion, 1981.

Dwelling Unit Type by Average Number of Persons Per Household, Edmonton Subregion, 1966, 1971, 1981.

Households by Age of Head and Dwelling Unit Type, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961, 1966, 1971.

Simple Projection of Dwelling Unit Propensities by Age of Household Head, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1981, 1986 (Method I).

Simple Projection of Dwelling Units by Age of Household Head for the Edmonton Subregion 1981, 1986 (Method I).

Households by Type Showing Tenure, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961, 1966, 1971.

Tenure of Households by Age of Household Head, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area 1961, 1966, 1971, Subregion 1981.

Modified Projection of Dwelling Unit Propensities Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1981 and 1986 (Method II).

Modified Projection of Dwelling Units by Age of Household Head for the Edmonton Subregion 1981, 1986 (Method II).

Distribution of Households by Type of Household, Type of Dwelling, and Tenure, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1966.

Distribution of Households by Type of Household, Type of Dwelling, and Tenure, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1971.

Projected Distribution of Households by Type of Household, Type of Dwelling, and Tenure, Edmonton Subregion, 1981 (Method II).

Current Housing Stock and Required Annual Construction 1971 to 1981, Edmonton Subregion (Method I - Simple Projection).

Current Housing Stockand Required Construction Edmontoh Subregion 1971, 1974 and 1981 (Estimated) (Projections I & II).

Distribution of Housing Stock by Type, Edmonton Subregion 1961 to 1986 (Method I and Method II).

TABLE 1 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD FORMATION RATES BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1961, 1966, 1971 Age Group

1961 1 Population

Household Heads

1966 2

Propensity(%)3

Population

Household Heads

Population

Household Heads

Propensity(%)3

48,458

Fan Non-Fain Total

3,970 1,507 5,477

8.2 3.1 11.3

67,099

Fain Non-Fan Total

5,615 3,495 9 110

8.4 5.2 13.6

99,040

Fan Non-Fan Total

9,860 6,020 15,880

10.0 6.1 16.1

25 - 34

56,204

Fain Non-Fan Total

22,255 1,802 24,057

39.6 3.2 42.8

57,622

Fan Non-Fan Total

23,771 2,858 26,629

41.3 4.9 46.2

73,340

Fan Non-Fan Total

30,780 4,650 35,430

42.0 6.3 48.3

35 - 44

46,027

Fan Non-Fan Total

20,890 1,369 22,260

45.4 3.0 48.4

53,476

Fan Non-Fan Total

25,020 2,158 27,178

46.8 4.0 50.8

60,965

Pam Non-Fan Total

29,160 3,055 32,215

47.8 5.0 52.8

45 - 54

30,888

Fan Non-Fan Total

14,446 1,632 16,078

46.8 5.3 52.1

37,569

Fan Non-Fan Total

17,651 2,530 20,181

47.0 6.7 53.7

48,390

Fan Non-Fain Total

22,675 3,395 26,070

46.9 7.0 53.9

55 - 64

18,808

Fain Non-Fain Total

8,185 2,104 10,289

43.5 11.2 54.7

23,981

Fam Non-Fain Total

10,635 3,140 13,775

44.3 13.1 57.4

31,960

Fan Non-Fan Total

13,870 4,345 18,215

43.4 13.6 57.0

19,542

Fan Non-Fan Total

6,890 3,952 10,842

35.3 20.2 36.6

23,286

Fan Non-Fam Total

8,021 5,330 13,351

34.4 22.9 57.3

29,505

Fan Non-Fan Total

9,775 7,180 16,955

33.1 24.3 57.4

219,927

Fan Non-Fan Total

76,636 12,367 89,003

34.9 5.6 40.5

263,033

Pam 90,673 Non-Fan 19,551 Total 110,224

34.5 7.4 41.9

343,200

Fan 116,120 Non-Fan 28,645 Total 144,765

33.8 8.4 42.2

337,568

Total

89,003

26.4

401,299

Total

27.5

495,915

Total

29.2

4 TOTAL

and

1 Figures refer to total population in a given age group.

Propensity(%)3

15 - 24

65 yrs over

1971

Fam = family households, Non-Fain = non-family households. Refers to the proportion of a given age group which are designated as heads of households.

4 Second tot:J1 provided includes the population under the age of 15 :'ears. SOURCE: Federal Census 1961, :966, 1971 Statistics Canada PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

110,224

144,765

TABLE 2 HOUSEHOLD HEADS AS PERCENTAGE OF AGE COHORT BY TYPE OF HOUSEHOLD AND AGE OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA 1961, 1966, 1971, EDMONTON SUBREGION 1976, 1981, 1986 METHOD I Proportion of Age Cohort Designated as "Household Head" Non-Family Households

Family Households

Total Households

Age of Household Head

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

15 - 24

8.2

8.4

10.0

12.0

14.0

15.0

3.1

5.2

6.1

8.0

25 - 34

39.6

41.3

42.)

42.0

43.0

3.2

4.9

6.3

35 - 44

45.4

46.8

47.8

48.0

49.0

3.0

4.0

45 - 54

46.8

47.0

46.9

46.0

45.0

5.3

55 - 64

43.5

44.3

43.4

43.0

65 & over

35.3

34.4

33.1

33.0

22.7

22.6

23.4

25.1

26.5

% of the total population

1. Projections are done for the Subregion, 2. 'Total' includes p-pdation under the age of 15 years. SOURCE: Federal Census 1961, 1966, 1971 Statistics Canada PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

1986 7.

1961 7.

1966 7.

1971 7,

1976 7.

1981 7.

1986

9.0

10.0

11.3

13.6

16.1

20.0 23.0

25.0

8.0

10.0

11.0

42.8

46.2

48.3

50.0 52.0 â&#x20AC;¢ 54.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

10.0

48.4

50.8

52.8

55.0 57.0

39.0

6.7

7.0

8.0

9.0

52.1

53.7

53.9

54.0 54.0

54.0

11.2

13.1

13.6

14.0

54.7

57.4

57.0

57.0 57.0

57.0

33.0

20.2

22.9

24.3

25.0

26.0

55.5

57.3

57.4

58.0 59.0

59.0

27.6

3.7

4.9

5.8

7.1

8.2

8.9

26.4

27.5

29.2

32.2 34.7

36.5

TABLE 3 AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH IN POPULATION AND NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS EDMONTON SUBREGION, 1961 - 1986 . 1 Population (Percent)

Households

1961 - 1966

3.54

4.26

1966 - 1971

3.38

4.50

1971 - 1976

3.04

5.04

1976 - 1981

2.82

4.32

1981 - 1986

2.57

3.62

1 Source: City of Edmonton and Edmonton Subregion Population Projections, City of Edmonton Planning Department, 1973. 2 Source: Calculated from Tables 1 and 4 (with adjustments for boundary changes in 1971) PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 4 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTION EDMONTON SUBREGION TO 1986

1976

Age of Household Population Head (in years) in Age Group

1981

Number of Household Heads

Population in Age Group

1986 .

Number of Household Heads

Population in Age Group

Number of Household Heads

15 - 24

115,340

23,070

127,110

29,230

127,960

31,990

107,260

53,630

130,100

67,650

143,070

77,260

71,360

39,250

89,600

51,070

120,690

71,210

60,270

32,540

67,350

36,370

75,460

40,750

23,230

49,930

28,460

58,300

33,230

37,700

21,870

46,940

27,690

57,440

33,880

601,000

193,590

693,480

240,470

789,500

288,320

65 & over. *Total Average Household Size

3.10

2.88

SOURCE: Projections based on propensities in Table 2 and calculated from the "Edmonton Subregion Population Projections", City of Edmonton Planning Department, 1973. *Total population also includes persons under the age of 15. PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton . Planning Department September, 1975

2.74

TABLE 5 PROJECTED AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE IN NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS BY_AGE OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD; EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1961 - 1971; EDMONTON SUBREGION, 1971 - 1986

Age of Household Head (in years)

1961-66

1966-71

1971-76*

1976-81

15 - 25

730

1,354

1,300

1,230

550

25 - 34

514

1,760

3,340

2,800

1,920

35 - 44

984

1,007

1,120

2,360

4,030

45 - 54

. 821

1,178

1,080

770

880

55 - 64

697

888

840

1,050

950

65 & over

502

721

840

1,160

1,240

4,248

6,908

8,520

9,370

9,570

TOTAL

1981 - 1986

*Figures obtained by applying 1971 age distribution of heads to 1971 estimate for region (151,000 households). See Table 6

SOURCE: Federal Census 1961, 1966, 1971 Statistics Canada

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 6 ASSUMED DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE OF HEAD, EDMONTON SUBREGION, 1971

Age of Household Head (in years)

Actual 1971 Distribution C.M.A. %

Subregion* Distribution

15 - 24

11.0

16,550

25 - 34

24.5

36,950

35 - 44

22.3

33,650

45 - 54

18.0

27,150

55 - 64

12.6

19,050

65 & over

11.7

17,650

100.0

151,000

TOTAL

*Assumptions: 1. That the C.M.A. distribution holds for the Subregion. 2. The total number of households in the subregion is estimated at 151,000 in 1971.

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 7 HOUSEHOLD DISTRIBUTION BY TYPE, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1961, 1966, 1971; EDMONTON SUBREGION, 1976, 1981, 1986

Family Households Age of Household Head (in years)

Non-Family Households

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1961

1966

1971

1976

15 - 24

3,:.,/0

5,615

9,860

13,840

17,830

19,190

1,507

3,495

6,020

25 - 34

22,255

23,771

30,780

45,050

54,800

61,520

1,802

2,858

35 - 44

20,890

25,020

29,160

34,250

43,410

59,140

1,369

45 - 54

14,446

17,651

22,675

27,720

30,550

33,960

55 - 64

8,185

10,635

13,870

17,520

21,470

65 6 over

6,890

8,021

9,775

12,440

90,673 116,120

150,820

All households

76,636

1981

1986

1961

1966

9,230

11,400

12,800

5,477

4,650

8,580

12,850

15,740

2,158

3,055

5,000

7,660

1,632

2,530

3,395

4,820

25,070

2,104

3,140

4,345

15,490

18,950

3,952

5,330

183,550

217,830

12,367

19,551

*Figures for 1976, 1981 and 1936 are for Edmonton Subregion and are therefore not absolutely comparable to the C.M.A. In 1971 the Subregion had approximately 151,000 households.

SOURCE: Federal Census 1961, 1966, 1971 Statistics Canada

PREPARED BY:

Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

Total Households

1971

1976

1981

1986

9,110

15,880

23,070

29,230

31,990

24,057

26,629

35,430

53,630

67,650

77,260

12,070

22,260

27,178

32,215

39,250

51,070

71,210

5,820

6,790

16,078

20,181

26,070

32,540

36,370

40,750

5,710

6,990

8,160

10,289

13,775

18,215

23,230

28,460

33,230

7,180

9,430

12,200

14,930

10,842

13,351

16,955

21,870

27,690

33,680

28,645

42,770

56,920

70,490

89,003

110,224

144,765

193,590

240,470

288,320

TABLE 8 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD TYPE BY AGE GROUP OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA 1961 to 1986*

Family Households Age of Household Head (in years)

1961

15 - 24

72.5

25 - 34

1966

Non-Family Households

1971

1976

1981

1986

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

61.6

62.1

62.0

61.0

60.0

27.5

38.4

37.9

38.0

39.0

40.0

92.5

89.3

86.9

84.0

81.0

79.6

7.5

10.7

13.1

16.0

19.0

20.4

35 - 44

93.9

92.1

90.5

87.3

85.0

83.0

6.1

7.9

9.5

12.7

15.0

17.0

45 - 54

89.9

87.5

87.0

85.2

84.0

83.3

10.1

12.5

13.0

14.8

16.0

16.7

55 - 64

79.6

77.2

76.2

75.4

20.4

22.8

23.8

24.6

65 & over

63.6

60.1

57.7

56.9

55.9

36.4

39.9

42.3

43.1

44.1

All households

86.1

82.3

80.2

77.9

76.3

75.6

13.9

17.7

19.8

22.1

23.7

24.4

*The projected distribution to 1976, 1981 and 1986 is assumed to apply equally to the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area and to the Subregion.

SOURCE: 1961, 1966, 1971 calculated from Federal Census, Statistics Canada PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 9 DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD AND HOUSEHOLD TYPE, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1961 - 1986* Family Households

Total Households

Non-Family Households

1961

1966

1971 %

1976 %

1981

1986

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

15 - 24

5.2

6.2

8.5

9.2

9.7

8.8

12.2

17.9

21.0

21.6

22.0

18.2

6.2

8.3

11.0

11.9

12.2

11.1

25 - 34

29.0

26.2

26.5

22.9

29.9

28.2

14.6

16.2

20.1

22.6

22.3

27.0

24.2

24.5

27.7

28.1

26.8

35 - 44

27.3

27.6

25.1

22.7

23.7

27.2

11.1

11.0

10.7

11.7

13.5

17.1

25.0

24.7

22.3

20.3

21.2

24.7

45 - 54

18.9

19.5

18.4

16.6

15.6

13.2

12.9

11.9

11.3

10.2

9.6

18.1

18.3

18.0

16.8

15.1

14.1

55 - 64

10.7

11.7

11.9

11.6

11.7

11.5

17.0

16.1

15.2

13.4

12.3

11.6

12.5

12.6

12.0

11.8

11.5

65 & over

9.0

8.9

8.4

8.3

8.4

8.7

32.0

27.3

25.1

22.1

21.4

21.2

12.2

12.1

11.7

11.3

11.5

11.8

Age of Household Head (in years)

Total**

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

*C.M.A. distribution is assumed to hold for the Edmonton Subregion. **Due to rounding totals may vary slightly SOURCE: 1961, 1966, 1971 calculated from Federal Censuses, Statistics Canada Projections prepared by Planning Department PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

TABLE 10 DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY SIZE AND AGE OF HEAD EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1966, 1971, AND EDMONTON SUBREGION 1981 (PERCENT) Number of Persons -----Age of Head (in years)

3 1971

1981

1966

1971

1981

1966

1971

1981

1966

1971

1981

1966

1971

1981

1966

1971

1981

1966

1971

1981

1966

1971

1.981

15 - 24

19.3

18.0

40.1

45.5

52.0

25.2

25.7

24.0

10.9

8.3

5.0

3.2

1.8

1.0

0.5

0.2

25 - 34

. 7.7

8.9

13.5

16.1

21.7

30.0

18.6

21.2

26.0

25.2

26.7

24.0

17.9

13.6

5.0

9.0

5.6

1.0

3.3

1.7

0.4

2.1

0.6

0.1

35 - 44

6.8

7.7

13.0

7.8

8.1

13.0

11.1

10.8

12.0

23.4

24.2

25.0

22.1

22.9

23.0 14.5

14.5

10.0

7.5

7.1

2.0

6.6

4.7

2.0

45 - 54

10.4

10.3

13.0

16.2

17.5

21.0

18.5

17.4

17.0

22.0

20.7

19.0

15.3

15.8

15.0

8.9

9.4

8.0

4.1

5.0

4.0

4.5

3.8

3.0

55 - 64

18.5

19.5

20.0

35.2

37.0

43.0

21.9

20.7

20.0

12.5

11.9

10.0

6.1

5.8

4.0

2.8

2.6

2.0

1.5

1.3

0.5

1.4

1.0

0.5

65 & over

33.2

36.9

38.0

45.9

45.8

48.0

12.4

10.6

10.0

4.6

3.7

3.0

1.9

1.6

1.0

0.8

0.4

0.2

Percentage of all Households 13.4

14.5

17.5

22.1

25.3

31.3

16.9

17.4

18.9

18.5

17.1

13.9

12.4

9.2

7.9

6.8

3.8

3.7

3.1

1.2

3.2

2.0

1.0

1966

SOURCE: 1961, 1971, calculated from Federal Censuses, Statistics Canada. Appendix 3 provides explanation on 1981 figures. PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch . City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 11 DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE OF HEAD, SIZE AND TYPE, EDMONTON SUBREGION, 1981 Number of Persons

Age of Household Head (in years) 15 - 24

TOTAL

290 170 120

29,230 17,830 11,400

3,380 3,310 70

680 680 -

270 270 -

70 70 -

67,650 54,800 12,850

12,770 11,740 12,690 11,720 80 20

5,110 5,110 -

1,020 1,020 -

51,070 43,410 7,660

Total Fan Non Fan

5,260 5,260

15,200 10,290 4,910

7,020 6,400 620

1,460 970 490

2, - 34

Total Fan Non Fan

9,130 9,130

20,290 17,310 2,980

17,590 17,220 370

16,240 15,940 300

35 - 44

Total Fam Non Pam

6,640 6,640

6,640 5,820 820

6,130 6,030 100

45 - 54

Total Fan Non Fan

4,730 4,730

7,640 6,770 870

6,180 6,070 110

6,910 6,820 90

5,460 5,440 20

2,910 2,910 -

1,450 1,450 -

1,090 1,090 -

36,370 30,550 5,820

55 - 64

Total Fan Non Fan

5,710 5,710

12,230 11,210 1,020

5,710 5,580 130

2,840 2,740 100

1,130 1,100 30

560 560 -

140 140 -

28,460 21,470 6,990

65 & over

Total Fan Non Pam

10,540 10,540

13,280 11,950 1,330

2,770 2,600 170

830 700 130

270 240 30

27,690 15,490 12,200

Total Fan Non Fan

42,010 42,010

75,280 63,350 11,930

45,400 43,900 1,500

41,050 39,860 1,190

22,270 21,98_0 290

9,260 9,260 -

2,880 2,880 -

2,320 2,320 -

240,470 183,550 56,920

TOTAL

NOTES: 1. Entries in Table 11 were calculated from Tables 10 and 14.

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 12 TRENDS IN DISTRIBUTION BY HOUSEHOLD SIZE EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1966, 1971; EDMONTON SUBREGION, 1981 1966

1971

1981

1 or 2

35.5

39.8

48.8

3 or 4

35.8

35.9

36.0

5 or more

28.7

24.3

15.2

TOTAL

100.0

Size of Household by No. of Persons

SOURCE: Federal Census, 1966, 1971 Statistics Canada PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 13 AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY AGE OF HEAD, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1966, 1971, 1981 Average Number of Persons Age of Household Head (in years)

1966

1971

1981

15 - 24

2.44

2.34

2.19

25 - 34

3.80

3.40

2.82

35 - 44

4.52

4.45

3.80

45 - 54

3.81

3.85

3.57

55 - 65

2.74

2.67

2.31

65 & over

2.02

1.92

1.77

All Households

3.64

3.42

2.88

SOURCE: Federal Census 1966, 1971 Statistics Canada 1981 Projections Calculated from Table 11 PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 14 NON-FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE OF HEAD AND SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD; EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1971; EDMONTON SUBREGION, 1981

1 person households Age of Household Head

1971 1971

1981

Total Non-Family Households

2 or more persons

Number

1981

% of Total Households

% of Total Non-Family

Number

% of Total Households

% of Total Non-Family

1971

1981

15 - 24

2,850

5,26C

3,170

20.0

52.7

6,140

21.0

53.8

6,020

11;400

25 - 34

3,140

9,130

1,510

4.3

32.5

3,720

5.5

29.0

4,650

12,850

35 - 44

2,485

6,640

570

1.8

18.8

1,020

2.0

13.3

3,055

7,660

45 - 54

2,690

4,730

705

2.7

20.8

1,090

3.0

18.7

3,395

5,820

55 - 64

3,550

5,710

795

4.3

18.3

1,280

4.5

18.3

4,345

6,990

65 & over

6,250

10,540

930

5.4

12.9

1,660

6.0

13.6

7,180

12,200

20,965

42,010

7,680

5.3

26.8

14,910

6.2

26.2

28,645

56,920

TOTAL

SOURCE: Federal Census 1971 Statistics Canada 1981 figures prepared by Planning Department (refer to Appendix 3 for explanation) PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department Sept&mber, 1975

TABLE 15 DWELLING UNIT TYPE BY AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD, EDMONTON SUBREGION, 1966, 1971, 1981

Type of Dwelling

1966

1971

1981*

single family

4.1

3.8

3.4

row

4.0

3.4

apartment

2.3

2.1

1.9

TOTAL

3.5

3.3

2.9

*SOURCE: City of Edmonton Planning Department. Estimates derived from trend analysis and an application of household and population projections to dwelling unit projections. Federal Census 1966, 1971 Statistics Canada PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

Table 16 HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE OF HEAD AND DWELLING UNIT TYPE EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1961, 1966, 1971 Dwelling Type AGE OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD (in years)

SINGLE DETACHED Frequency

SEMI DETACHED & ROW Frequency

MOBILE HOMES

APARTMENT Frequency

Frequency

TOTAL

1961 15 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 & over

1,793 15,142 17,369 12,474 7,431 7,591

TOTAL

61,800 69.4%

32.7 63.0 78.0 77.6 72.2 70.0

478 1,862 1,202 598 365 496

8.7 7.7 5.4 3.7 3.6 4.6

3,173 6,768 3,579 2,948 2,474 2,750

56.0 28.1 16.1 18.3 24.0 25.4

0.6 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0

510 0.6%

21,692 24.4%

5,001 5.6%

33 285 110 58 19 5

5,477 25,057 22,260 16,078 10,289 10,842 89,003

1966 15 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 & over

1,682 15,398 20,768 15,357 9,484 8,095

TOTAL

70,784 64.2%

18.5 57.8 76.5 76.1 68.9 60.6

589 2,526 1,583 751 404 509

6.5 9.5 5.8 3.7 2.9 3.8

6,362 5.8%

6,783 8,534 4,737 4,027 3,858 4,728

74.4 32.1 17.4 20.0 28.0 35.4

56 171 90 46 29 19

0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2

110,224

411 0.4%

32,667 29.6%

9,110 26,629 27,178 20,181 13,775 13,351

1971 15 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 & over TOTAL

3,460 17,555 24,480 20,225 13,325 11,165

21.6 50.0 75.9 78.0 72.6 65.5

90,205 62.3%

860 3,805 2,375 1,125 495 385

5.3 10.8 7.4 4.3 2.7 2.2

9,040 6.3%

Source: Census of Canada, 1961, 1966 and 1971 Statistics Canada Prepared by: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

11,590 13,340 5,195 4,465 4,445 5,445 44,475 30.7%

72.2 38.0 16.1 17.2 24.2 32.0

140 405 190 125 90 50 1,010 0.7%

0.9 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3

16,050 35,110 32,235 25,940 18,355 17,040 144,730

TABLE 17 SIMPLE PROJECTION OF DWELLING UNIT PROPENSITIES BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1981, 1986 (METHOD I) Dwelling Type Semi-Detached and Row

Single Detached

Mobile Homes

Apartment

Age of Household Head (in years)

1961*

1966

1971

1981 %

1986 %

1961 %

1966 %

1971 %

1981 %

1986 %

1961 %

1966 %

1971 %

1981 %

1986 %

1961 %

1966 %

1971 %

1981 %

1986 %

15 - 24

32.7

13.5

21.6

19.0

18.0

8.7

6.5

5.3

4.0

5.0

56.0

74.4

72.2

76.0

0.6

0.9

1.0

25 - 34

63.0

57.3

50.0

44.0

37.5

7.7

9.5 10.8

11.0

13.0

28.1

32.1

38.0

43.5

48.0

1.2

0.6

1.2

1.5

35 - 44

78.0

76.5

75.9

75.0

74.0

5.4

5.8

7.4

7.5

8.0

16.1

17.4

16.1

17.0

17.5

0.5

0.3

0.6

0.5

45 - 54

77.6

76.1

78.0

77.6

3.7

4.3

4.7

18.3

20.0

17.2

16.7

17.0

0.4

0.2

0.5

0.6

0.7

55 - 64

72.2

68.9

72.6

72.5

73.0

3.6

2.9

2.7

2.3

2.2

24.0

28.0

24.2

24.5

24.0

0.2

0.5

0.7

0.8

65 & over

70.0

60.6

65.5

60.0

57.4

4.6

3.8

2.2

2.0

25.4

35.4

32.0

37.5

40.0

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.6

*1961, 1966, 1971 Propensities calculated from actual Federal Census data, Statistics Canada . The term "propensity" refers to the proportion of an age cohort of household heads which can be expected to demand a particular structural type of dwelling. PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 18 SIMPLE PROJECTION OF DWELLING UNITS BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLD FOR THE EDMONTON SUBREGION, 1981, 1986 (METHOD I) 1981

Dwelling Type

Age of Household Head (in years)

Projected Households

15 - 24

29,230

5,550

19.0

1,170

4.0

22,220

76.0

29u

1.0

25 - 34

67,650

29,770

44.0

7,440

11.0

29,430

43.5

1,010

1.5

38,310

75.0

3,830

7.5

8,680

17.0

250

0.5

Semi Detached & Row

Single Detached Frequency %

Mobile Homes

Apartment

Frequency % Frcquency % Frequency %

35 - 44

51,070

45 - 54

36,370

28,370

78.0

1,710

4.7

6,070

16.7

220

0.6

55 - 64

28,460

20,630

72.5

650

2.3

6,970

24.5

200

0.7

65 & over

27,690

16,620

60.0

550

2.0

10,380

37.5

140

0.5

TOTAL*

240,470

139,250 57.9%

1986

Dwelling Type

Age of Household 'dead (in years)

Projected Households

15 - 24 25 - 34

15,350 6.4%

83,750 34.8%

Semi Detached & Row

Single Detached

2,110 0.9%

Apartment

Mobile Homes

Frequency

31,990

5,760

18.0

1,600

5.0

24,310

76.0

320

1.0

Frequency

77,260

28,970

37.5

10,040

13.0

37,090

48.0

1,160

1.5

35 - 44

71,210

52,690

74.0

5,700

8.0

12,460

17.5

360

0.5

45 - 54

40,750

31,620

77.6

1,920

4.7

6,930

17.0

280

0.7

55 - 64

33,230

24,260

73.0

730

2.2

7,970

24.0

270

0.8

65 & over

33,880

19,450

57.4

680

2.0

13,550

40.0

200

0.6

TOTAL

288,320

162,750 56.5%

PREPARED BY:

Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton' Planning Department September, 1975

20,670 7.2%

102,310 35.5%

2,590 0.9%

TABLE 19 HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE SHOWING TENURE, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1961, 1966, 1971 (Percent)

Type of Household

Family:

Owned Rented

Non-Family:

Owned Rented

Year 1961

1966

1971

69.2 30.8

67.7 32.3

62.7 37.3

39.4 60.6

28.6 71.4

24.5 75.5

Source: Census of Canada 1961, 1966, 1971 Statistics Canada

Prepared by: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 20 TENURE OF HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA 1961, 1966, 1971; SUB REGION 1981* (PERCENT) Age of Head (in years)

OWN

RENT

1961

1966

1971

1981

1961

1966

1971

1981

15 - 24

3 - 5

95 - 97

25 - 34

30 - 35

65 - 70

35 - 44

65 - 67

33 - 35

45 - 54

72 - 74

26 - 28

55 - 64

68 - 72

28 - 32

65 & over

64 - 67

33 - 36

55 48.9 - 52.1

TOTAL

47.9 - 51.1

*Low 1981 ownership based on assumption the cost of home ownership will continue to increase at a faster rate than rental. High 1981 ownership based on assumption that methods of tenure such as condominium will become more popular.

SOURCE: Federal Census, 1961, 1966, 1971 Statistics Canada 1981 Figures prepared by Planning Department

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 21 MODIFIED PROJECTION OF DWELLING UNIT PROPENSITIES EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1981 and 1986* (METHOD II)

Dwelling Type Age of Household Head (in yrs.)

Row

Single Detached 1961 1966 % %

1971 1981 1986 % % %

1961 %

1966 %

1971 %

Mobile Homes

Apartment 1981 1986 % %

1961 %

1966 %

1971 1981 1986 % % %

1961 %

1966 %

1971 %

1981 %

1986 %

15 - 24

32.7

18.5

21.6

8.7

6.5

5.3

57.9 74.4

72.2

0.6

0.9

25 - 34

63.0 57.8

50.0

7.7

9.5

10.8

28.1

32.1

38.0

1.2

0.6

1.2

35 - 44

78.0

76.5

75.9

5.4

5.8

7.4

16.1 17.4

16.1

0.5

0.3

0.6

45 - 54

77.6

76.1

78.0

3.7

4.3

18.3

20.0 17.2

0.4

0.2

0.5

55 - 64

72.2 68.9

72.6

3.6

2.9

2.7

24.0

28.0

24.2

0.2

0.5

70.0

65.5

4.6

3.8

2.2

25.4

35.4

32.0

0.0

0.2

0.3

65 & over

60.6

*C.M.A. propensities are assumed to apply to the Edmonton Subregion The term "propensity" refers to the proportion of an age cohort of household heads which can be expected to demand a particular structural type of dwelling. SOURCE: Federal Census 1961, 1966, 1971 Statistics Canada PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 22 MODIFIED PROJECTION OF DWELLING UNITS BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD FOR THE EDMONTON SUB-REGION, 1981, 1')86 (METHOD II) 1981

Dwelling Type Single Detached

Semi Detached & Row

Apartment Mobile Homes Age of Household Projected Head (in years) Households Frequency % Frequency % Frequency % Frequency % 15 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 & over TOTAL

29,230 67,650 51,070 36,370 28,460 27,690

4,390 27,060 36,770 27,280 19,920 16,610

240,470

15 40 72 75 70 60

2,630 12,180 6,130 2,910 1,420 1,110

9 18 12 8 5 4

21,920 27,060 7,660 5,820 6,830 9,690

75 40 15 16 24 35

290 1,350 510 360 290 280

1 2 1 1 1 1

132,030

54.9

26,380

11.0

78,980

32.8

3,080

1.3

31,990 77;260 71,210 40,750 33,230 33,890

3,840 27,040 49,850 29,340 22,270 19,660

12 35 70 72 67 58

3,840 17,000 9,970 3,670 1,990 1,690

12 22 14 9 6 5

23,670 30,900 9,970 7,330 8,640 12,200

74 40 14 18 26 36

640 2,320 1,420 410 330 340

2 3 2 1 1 1

288,330

152,000

52.7

38,160

13.2

92,710

32.2

5,460

1.9

1986 15 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 & over TOTAL

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 23. DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE OF HOUSEHOLD, TYPE OF DWELLING AND TENURE, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1966 TOTAL

OWN

RENT

sfd

55,432 (84.5%) (90.7%)

10,136 (15.5%) (34.6%)

65,568 (72.6%)

row

1,670 (28.5%) (2.7%)

4,196 (71.5%) (14.27)

5,866 (6.5%)

apt

3,997 (21.1%) (6.5%)

14,926 (78.9%) (51.0%)

18,923 (20.9%)

TOTAL

61,099 (67.6%)

29,258 (32.4%)

90,357

Family Households

Non-Family Households sfd

4,354 (83.5%) (78.7%)

862 (16.5%) (6.2%)

5,216 (26.8%)

TOW

157 (31.7%) (2.8%)

339 (68.3%) (2.4%)

496 (2.6%)

apt

1,019 (7.4%) (18.4%)

12,725 (92.6%) (91.4%)

13,744 (70.6%)

TOTAL

5,530 (28.4%)

13,926 (71.6%)

19,456

Total Households sfd

59,786 (84.5%) (89.7%)

10,998 (15.5%) (25.5%)

70,784 (64.5%)

TOW

1,827 (28.7%) (2.7%)

4,353 (71.3%) (10.5%)

6,362 (5.8%)

apt

5,016 (75.3%) (7.5%)

27,651 (84.7%) (64.0%)

32,667 (29.8%)

TOTAL

66,629 (60.7%)

43,184 (39.3%)

109,813

NOTE: sfd = single family dwelling apt = apartment row = all single attached dwellings SOURCE: Federal Census, 1966 Statistics Canada

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 24 DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE OF HOUSEHOLD, TYPE OF DWELLING AND TENURE EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1971 OWN

RENT

TOTAL

Family Households sfd

67,725 (83.7%) (94.1%)

13,195 (16.3%) (30.5%)

80,920 (70.2%)

TOW

1,945 (23.0%) (2.7%)

6,505 (77.0%) (15.1%)

8,450 (7.3%)

apt

2,305 (8.9%) (3.2%)

23,525 (91.1%) (54.4%)

25,830 (22.4%)

TOTAL

71,975 (62.5%)

43,225 (37.5%)

115,200

Non-Family Households sfd

6,310 (68.0%) (88.0%)

2,975 (32.0%) (13.9%)

9,290 (32.6%)

TOW

- 135 (23.7%) (1.9%)

450 (76.3%) (2.1%)

590 (2.1%)

apt

695 (3.7%) (9.7%)

17,960 (96.3%) (84.0%)

18,650 (65.4%)

TOTAL

7,140 (25.0%)

21,385 (75.0%)

28,525

Total Households sfd

74,035 (82.1%) (93.6%)

16,170 (17.9%) (25.0%)

90,210 (62.8%)

TOW

2,080 (23.0%) (2.6%)

6,955 (77.0%) (10.8%)

9,040 (6.3%)

apt

3,000 (6.7%) (3.8%)

41,485 (93.3%) (64.2%)

44,480 (30.9%)

TOTAL

79,115 (55.0%)

64,610 (45.0%)

143,730

NOTE: sfd = single family dwelling apt = apartment row = all single attached dwellings SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 25 PROJECTED DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE OF HOUSEHOLD, TYPE OF DWELLING AND TENURE, EDMONTON SUB REGION 1981 (METHOD II) OWN

RENT

TOTAL

Family Households sfd

84,660 (72.9%) (81.4%)

31,520 (27.1%) (39.6%)

116,180 (63.3%)

TOW

13,710 (54.0%) (13.2%)

11,670 (46.0%) (14.7%)

25,380 (13.8%)

apt

5,600 (13.3%) (5.3%)

36,380 (86.7%) (45.7%)

41,980 (22.9%)

TOTAL

103,970 (56.6%)

79,570 (43.4%)

183,540

Non-Family Households sfd

"11,420 (60.4%) (83.6%)

7,500 (39.6%) (17.3%)

18,920 (33.2%)

TOW

240 (24.0%) (1.8%)

760 (76.0%) (1.7%)

(1.8%)

apt

2,000 (5.4%) (14.6%)

35,000 (94.6%) (80.9%)

37,000 (65.0%)

TOTAL

13,660 (22.4%)

43,260 (77.6%)

56,920

1,000

Total Households sfd

96,080 (71.1%) (80.3%)

39,020 (28.9%) (31.8%)

135,100* (55.7%)

TOW

13,950 (52.9%) (11.7%)

12,430 (47.1%) (10.1%)

26,380 (10.9%)

apt

7,600 (9.6%) (6.4%)

71,380 (90.4%) (58.1%)

78,980 (32.6%)

TOTAL

117,630 (48.9%)

122,830 (51.1%)

240,460

*Includes 3,080 mobile home units not allocated. NOTE: sfd = single family dwellings apt - apartment row = all single attached dwellings PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 26 CURRENT HOUSING STOCK AND REQU,RED ANNUAL CONSTRUCTION 1971 to 1981, EDMONTON SUB-REGION (METHOD I - SIMPLE PROJECTION)

SUB-REGION

Existing Dwelling Units in 19711 Estimated Dwelling Units Required in 19812 Total Additional Units Required, 1971 to 1981 Required Annual Construction

Single Detached

Row

Apartment

Mobile Homes

Total

94,070

9,510

46,360

1,060

151,000

139,240

15,360

83,760

2,110

240,470

45,170

5,850

37,400

1,050

89,470

4,520

580

3,740

110

8,950

1For the Sub-region, the distribution of dwelling type for 1971 was calculated using the 1971 C.M.A. proportions applied to the universe of households. 21981 Dwelling Units may vary slightly due to rounding.

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 27 CURRENT HOUSING STOCK AND REQUIRED CONSTRUCTION, EDMONTON SUB-REGION 1971, 1974 and 1981 (estimated) (PROJECTIONS I & II)

PROJECTION I

Type of Dwelling Single Family Row Apartment Mobile Home TOTAL

1971

1974

1981

Additional Required 1975-1981

PROJECTION II Annual Requirement 1975-1981

1981

Additional Required 1975-1981

Annual Requirement 1975-1981

Actual Construction Starts C.M.A. 1974

Actual Construction Starts C.M.A. 1975

94,070 107,780

139,240

31,460

4,840

132,020

24,240

3,730

3,486

4,974

9,510

14,360

15,360

1,000

150

26,380

12,020

1,850

1,201

2,263

46,360

55,700

83,760

28,060

4,320

78,980

23,280

3,580

675

1,410

1,060

1,450

2,110

660

100

3,080

1,630

250

n/a

61,180

9,410

240,460*

61,170

9,410

5,362

8,647

151,000 179,290

240,470*

* Total units projected by Methods I and II vary slightly due to rounding. NOTES: 1. 1971 figures for the Subregion were calculated by applying the 1971 C.M.A. distribution to ,.51,000 households. 2. Due to boundary differences, estimates of starts made since 1971 are not available for the region. As a result, the annual requirement figures may be slightly high. 3. Annual requirement 1971 - 1981: 8,950 units SOURCES: 1971 Federal Census, Statistics Canada City of Edmonton Planning Department Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department January, 1976

TABLE 28 DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING STOCK BY TYPE, EDMONTON SUBREGION 1961 to 1986 (METHOD I AND METHOD II) (Per Cent)

Method I - Simple Projection

Actual

Type of Dwelling

Single Family Dwelling Row Apartment Mobile Home

Total

Method II - Modified Projection

1961

1966

1971

1981

1986

1981

1986

69.4

64.2

62.3

57.9

56.5

54.9

52.7

5.6

5-8

6.3

6.4

7.2

11.0

13.2

24.4

29.6

30:7

34.8

35.5

32.8

33.2

0.6

0.4

0.7

0.9

1.3

1.9

100.0%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

SOURCES: Federal Census, 1961, 1966, 1971 Statistics Canada City of Edmonton Planning Department PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

APPENDIX 6 - HOUSING SUPPLY LIST OF TABLES Table 29

Measures of Substandard Conditions, City of Edmonton, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area 1971.

Households by Age of Head, Showing Period of Construction of Dwelling, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1971.

Households by Persons Per Room Showing Lack of Specified Household Facilities, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1971.

Households by Age of Head Showing Lack of Specified Household Facilities and Households With More Than One Person Per Room, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1971.

Occupied Dwellings by Structure Type, Showing Lack of Specified Household Facilities, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1971.

Occupied Dwellings by Type, Showing Households With More Than One Person Per Room, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1971.

Households by Age of Head, With More Than One Person Per Room, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1971.

Households by Type and Age of Head Without Exclusive Use of Toilet Facilities*, City of Edmonton, 1971.

Distribution of Dwelling Values, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961, 1971, Edmonton Area, 1975.

Consumer Price Indexes - Slected Housing Components and All-Items, Canada, 1961 - 1975.

Components of Cost Increases In New Single Family Dwellings 1965 - 1974.

Interest Rates on Conventional Mortgage Loans, Canada, 1966 - 1975.

Household Amenities in Selected Census Metropolitan Areas, 1971 and Average Size of New Dwellings under N.H.A., 1974

Table 42

Annual Number of Housing Units Demolished in the City of Edmonton, 1969 to 1975.

City of Edmonton Housing Starts by Type of Dwelling Unit 1962 - 1975.

Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, Housing Starts by Dwelling Type, 1961 - 1975.

Estimated Required and Actual Housing Starts, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1975 - 1978

TABLE 29 MEASURES OF SUBSTANDARD CONDITIONS, CITY OF EDMONTON, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1971 Number of Dwelling Units 1971 City

CMA

3,870

5,665

795

1,720

3. Without Exclusive Use of Bath

5,535

6,730

4. More than one person per room

6,240

8,835

5. More than 1.6 persons per room

1,245

1,495

Criterion 1. Flush Toilet:

shared or without

2. No Running Water

RANGE TOTAL DWELLING UNITS: PERCENT OF STOCK

SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

770 - 3,870 131,130 0.6% - 3.0%

1,720 - 5,665 144,730 1.2% - 3.9%

TABLE 30 HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE OF HEAD, SHOWING PERIOD OF CONSTRUCTION OF DWELLING, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1971

Period of Construction of Dwelling Age of Household Head (in years)

Number of Households

15 - 24

15,860

4.0

10.7

29.4

16.9

29.7

9.4

25â&#x20AC;¢- 34

35,315

3.4

9.2

30.3

19.6

28.6

8.9

35 - 44

32,130

4.0

9.1

42.3

23.5

16.5

4.6

45 - 54

26,030

5.7

10.1

51.6

18.7

11.0

2.9

55 - 65

18,210

9.2

14.9

52.5

13.4

8.1

2.0

65 & over

16,96D

16.0

21.0

46.2

9.1

6.4

1.6

144,510

6.2

11.7

41.2

18.0

17.7

5.2

TOTAL

1920 or before 1921-1945 1946-1960 1961-1965

SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

1966-1970 1970-1971

TABLE 31 HOUSEHOLDS BY PERSONS PER ROOM, SHOWING LACK OF SPECIFIED HOUSEHOLD FACILITIES, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1971 Dwellings Without

Persons Per Room

Total

More than one person

8,835 (6.1%)

One person or 135,675 less (93.9%)

All Households

144,510

Running Water

Bath or Shower

Flush Toilet

Ft:nace Heating

295

565

510

635

1,520

6,455

5,350

4,615

1,815 (1.3%)

7,020 (4.9%)

5,860 (4.1%)

5,250 (3.6%)

SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 32 HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE OF HEAD SHOWING LACK OF SPECIFIED HOUSEHOLD FACILITIES, AND HOUSEHOLDS WITH MORE THAN ONE PERSON PER ROOM, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1971

Dwellings Without Age of Household Head (in years)

Number of Households

Running Water %

Bath or Shower %

Flush Toilet %

Furnace Heating %

15 - 24

15,860

1.0

5.7

4.9

4.4

25 - 34

35,310

1.0

3.1

2.7

35 - 44

32,135

1.0

3.3

2.6

45 - 54

26,030

1.1

3.8

3.9

3.1

55 - 64

18,210

1.9

6.5

5.4

4.3

65 & over

16,960

2.2

10.5

8.5

6.7

144,510

1,815

7,020

5,860

5,250

1.3%

4.9%

4.1%

3.6%

Total

SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 33 OCCUPIED DWELLINGS BY STRUCTURE TYPE, SHOWING LACK OF SPECIFIED HOUSEHOLD FACILITIES, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1971

Dwellings Without Type of Dwelling

Number of Households

Running Water

Bath or Shower

Flush Toilet

Single Detached

89,910

1.4

2.0

1.9

4.3

9,265

0.3

2.4

1.6

2.3

Apartment

44,325

1.1

11.0

8.8

2.3

TOTAL

144,510

1,815 1.3%

7,020 4.9%

5,860 4.1%

Row

SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

Tirnace Heating

5,250 3.6%

TABLE 34 OCCUPIED DWELLINGS BY TYPE, SHOWING HOUSEHOLDS WITH MORE THAN ONE PERSON PER ROOM, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1971

Type of Dwelling

Households With More Than One Person Per Room Number

5,960

62.2

810

6.4

Apartment

1,860

30.7

TOTAL

8,835

100.0

Single Detached Row

SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 35 HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE OF HEAD, WITH MORE THAN ONE PERSON PER ROOM, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1971

Age of Household Head (in years)

Number of Households

Number of Households With More Than One Person Per Room Number

15 - 24

15,860

435

2.7

25 - 34

35,315

2,420

6.8

35 - 44

32,130

3,720

11.6

45 - 54

26,030

1,750

6.7

55 - 64

18,210

350

1.9

65 & over

16,960

160

0.9

TOTAL

144,510

8,835

6.1

Family Non-Family

115,900 28,610

6,635 200

5.7 0.7

TOTAL

144,510

8,835

6.1

Type of Household

SOURCE: Federal Census 1971 Statistics Canada Prepared by: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 36 HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE AND AGE OF HEAD WITHOUT EXCLUSIVE USE OF TOILET FACILITIES*, CITY OF EDMONTON 1971

Age of Head (in years)

Family

Non-Family

Total

15 - 24

210 (30.0%) (17.7%)

490 (70.0%) (14.5%)

700 (15.3%)

25 - 34

330 (48.2%) (27.9%)

355 (51.8%) (10.5%)

685 (15.0%)

35 - 44

200 (33.9%) (16.9%)

390 (66.1%) (11.5%)

590 (12.9%)

45 - 54

155 (23.1%) (13.1%)

515 (76.9%) (15.2%)

670 (14.7%)

55 - 64

100 (13.8%) (8.4%)

(86.2%) 625 (18.5%)

725 (15.9%)

65 & over

190 (15.9%) (16.0%)

(84.1%) 1,005 (29.7%)

1,195 (26.2%)

1,185 (26.0%)

3,380 (74.0%)

4,565

Total

* Refers to those househoids either sharing a toilet or without access to a toilet at all. SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 37 DISTRIBUTION OF DWELLING VALUES* , EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1961, 1971, EDMONTON AREA, 1975 Dwelling Value* Total Number of Dwellings CMA 1961

Number Percent

Under $7,500

$7,50012,499

$12,50017,499

2,436 4.8%

13,335 26.0%

24,406 47.6%

51,239

$17,50022,499 7,353 14.3%

$22,50027,499 1,896 3.7%

$27,50032,499 745 1.5%

$32,50037,499

$37,500 or greater '

Median Value

626 1.2%

$14,517

442 0.9%

Dwelling Value* Total Number of Dwellings CMA 1971

Number Percent

Under $7,500

71,555

$7,50012,499

815 1.1%

3,155 4.4%

$12,50017,499 9,360 13.1%

$17,50022,499

$22,50027,499

$27,50032,499

$32,50037,499

17,655 24.7%

20,580 28.8%

10,540 14.7%

4,240 5.9%

$37,500 Or greater

Median Value

5,205 7.2%

$23,665

SOURCE: Federal Census 1961, 1971

Sale Price Total Number of Sales in Period Dwelling Unit Sales in Edmonton and Surrounding Residential Communities January-March 31, 1975

Number Percent

SOURCE: City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

1,211

Under $15,000

12 0.8%

$15,00024,999

108 8.9%

$25,00034,999

359 29.6%

$35,00044,999

406 33.6%

$45,00054,999

219 18.1%

$55,00064,999

54 4.4%

$65,000 or greater

53 4.4%

Calculated Median' Value

$38,000

* Value as defined by Statistics Canada: "relates to single detached owner-occupied non-farm dwellings, and is based on the amount expected by the owner if the dwelling were to be sold to a willing buyer".

TABLE 38 CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES - SELECTED HOUSING COMPONENTS AND ALL ITEMS CANADA, 1961-1975 (USING DECEMBER FIGURES FOR EACH YEAR)** (1971 = 100)

Shelter Home-Ownership

Tenancy

Mortgage Interest

Owner Repairs

New Houses

Dwelling Insurance

Total

Fuel and Utilities

Housing

AllItems

Period

Rent

Total

Property Taxes

1961

82.5

81.7

65.2

50.4

63.1

57.8

50.6

57.9

84.3

73.5

75.3

1962

82.7

82.0

66.6

53.3

63.9

59.5

52.0

59.8

84.1

74.5

76.5

61.9

82.0

75.2

77.9

1963

82.9

82.3

68.7

54.6

66.1

62.5

53.5

1964

83.4

82.9

71.4

56.3

68.9

65.6

57.4

64.5

82.1

76.6

79.4

68.9

61.0

67.5

81.4

78.1

81.7

1965

84.1

83.6

74.7

58.4

72.0

1966

86.2

85.7

78.2

60.9

74.9

72.3

64.3

70.5

81.8

80.8

84.6

1967

89.6

89.3

78.2

64.2

80.4

78.2

69,4

74.2

85.8

84.4

88.1 91.7

1968

93.5

93.1

84.1

73.1

84.0

82.9

73.7

80.3

89.4

88.5

1969

97.1

96.8

96.6

82.0

88.0

89.2

79.9

88.5

91.2

93.3

95.9

83.5

96.0

96.6

97.5

97.3

1970

99.3

99.9

93.6

97.7

1971

100.6

100.7

101.4

103.2

104.2

120.5

103.7

102.1

102.2

129.5

113.2

105.3

107.3

107.4 117.2

1972

101.8

102.2

103.7

115.2

111.7

117.2

1973

103.5

104.2

102.8

127.0

124.7

130.9

164.0

123.1

122.2

115.1

1974

107.7

103.6

107.6

146.8

144.8

142.2

184.3

137.0

135.6

126.8

131.8

151.9

137.9

142.8

*1975 SOURCE:

113.7

114.6

121.8

162.2

Statistics Canada

* For 1975,0ctober figures are used. ** Figures used in this table reflect the December index for each year. For this reason, the CPI in 1971 is not necessarily 100 (which the average of the twelve month period).

151.0

151.8 Prepared By:

241.0

151.2

Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department December, 1975

TABLE 39 COMPONENTS OF COST INCREASES IN NEW SINGLE FAMILY DWELLINGS 1965 - 1974

Year 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

Servicing Bylaw Rates $/front foot 34.58 34.67 35.37 39.99 46.06 48.87 57.45 67.61 73.69 85.42 100.32

Total Servicing Cost (50 foot frontage assumed)

Residual Land Cost

Total land Cost

Construction Cost/sq.ft.

Construction Cost

Total Dwelling Cobt

1,729 1,733 1,768 2,000 2,303 2,443 2,872 3,380 3,684 4,271 5,016

1,812 1,845 1,941 2,665 3,004 3,442 3,791 3,533 4,260 5,614 N/A

3,541 3,578 3,709 4,665 5,307 5,885 6,663 6,913 7,944 9,885 N/A

11.13 12.07 12.84 12.64 14.03 14.88 15.16 16.11 18.02 23.51 N/A

12,945 14,376 15,258 15,131 17,590 19,276 19,049 20,501 22,980 29,000 N/A

16,486 17,954 18,967 19,796 22,897 25,161 25,712 27,414 30,924 38,885 N/A

8 Average Price (of houses less than 1 year old) n/a n/a 25,653 27,089 27,320 29,771 30,233 31,715 35,282 46,341 N/A

SOURCES: Column 1. City of Edmonton-Bylaw Rates. These rates of unit servicing cost are lower than the actual. It is estimated that in 1974 and 1975, the cost of servicing per front foot was $124 and $155 respectively. Column 2. Obtained by assuming an average front footage of 50 feet and applying the Bylaw rate. Column 3. Obtained by subtracting Column 3 from Column 4. Columns 4, 5 & 7. Estimated costs of new single family dwellings under the National Housing Act, Canadian Housing Statistics (annual publication). Column 6. Obtained by subtracting Column 7 from Column 4. Column 8. City of Edmonton Planning Department PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 40 INTEREST RATES ON CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGE LOANS CANADA, 1966 - 1975 Jan.

Feb.

1966

7.38

1967

7.93

1968 1969

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

7.45

7.46

7.48

7.51

7.57

7.68

7.80

7.84

7.87

7.91

7.95

7.89

7.83

7.80

7.77

7.88

8.02

8.05

8.10

8.49

8.52

8.83

8.84

8.96

9.20

9.23

9.18

9.14

9.12

9.08

9.01

9.09

9.10

9.45

9.48

9.52

9.50

9.69

9.90

9.99

10.11

10.21

10.30

10.50

10.35 10.28

10.16

1970 10.58 10.54 10.58 10.60 10.58

10.53 10.38

10.40 10.36

1971

9.94

9.72

9.28

9.20

9.25

9.34

9.46

9.53

9.55

9.26

9.10

1972

9.04

8.93

8.97

9.03

9.16

9.37

9.41

9.38

9.35

9.30

9.22

1973

9.09

9.02

9.07

9.15

9.30

9.52

9.71

9.91 10.13

10.13 10.08

10.02

1974 10.02 10.01 10.04

10.70 11.26

11.37

12.05

11.88

1975 11.81

10.99 10.90 11.23

10.95

10.65

Source: Federal Census, 1961, 1966, 1971 Statistics Canada

Prepared by: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City Planning Department September, 1975 NOTE: Interest rates plotted on Figure 21 are June figures.

11.60 11.85

12.05

12.00

TABLE 41 HOUSEHOLD AMENITIES IN SELECTED CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREAS, 1971 AND AVERAGE SIZE OF NEW DWELLINGS UNDER N.H.A., 1974

Census Metropolitan Areas

Edmonton

Dwellings Built Prior to 1920

Dwellings With More Than One Person Per Room

9,000

6.3

8,835

% 6.1

Dwellings Without/Shared Flush Toilet . #

Dwellings Without Furnace ii

More Than One Person Per Room and No Exclusive Flush Toilet i/

Dwellings More Than One Person Per Room and Without Furnace 1/

Average Size of New Homes Financed Under N.H.A.

1974 (sq.ft.)

5,865

4.1

5,245

3.6

510

0.4

635

0.4

.1,258

3,635

3.0

5,015

4.1

175

0.1

380

0.3

1,168

Calgary

11,325

9.5

5,565

4.6

Halifax

10,395 17.5

6,135

10.3

2,635

4.4

5,110

8.6

660

1.1

1,220

2.1

1,089

120,400 15.0

75,315

9.4

12,710

1.6

232,420

28.8

1,590

0.2

31,245

3.9

1,037

25,440 15.0

12,620

7.4

12,980

1.7

15,065

8.9

420

0.2

2,920

1.7

1,199

45,155

5.8

15,920

2.1

15,395

2.0

2,065

0.3

2,010

0.3

1,337

0.7

1,218

0.4

1,072

2.0%

1,074

Montreal Ottawa-Hull Toronto

109,915

14.2

Vancouver

32,495

9.4

15,810

4.6

8,505

2.5

24,340

7.0

675

0.2

2,360

Winnipeg

33,360

20.1

9,850

5.9

5,845

3.5

5,100

3.1

575

0.3

600

17.1%

79,293

6.5%

58,095.

2.5%

Total/Average Among All Urban 810,630 Regions*

SOURCE: Federal Census 1971 Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

301,590

13.6%

6,670

0.4%

41,370

* Averages refer to national urban averages and are not the average of the data presented in this table.

TABLE 42 ANNUAL NUMBER OF HOUSING UNITS DEMOLISHED IN THE CITY OF EDMONTON 1969 - 1975

Year

Number of Units Demolished

1969

453

1970

180

1971

377

*1972

325

1973

345

1974

315

1975

332

AVERAGE

332

*Estimated for 1972 SOURCE: Building Inspection Branch, City of Edmonton Planning Department

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department January, 1976

TABLE 43 CITY OF EDMONTON HOUSING STARTS BY TYPE OF DWELLING UNIT, 1962-1975

Year

Single & SemiDetached & Duplex

1962

2,338

59.5

1,592

40.5

3,930

1963

2,235

58.7

1,570

41.3

3,805

1964

2,488

58.1

1,796

41.9

4,284

1965

2,669

60.9

1,711

39.1

4,380

1966

2,065

57.1

1,549

42.9

3,614

1967

1,845

30.9

4,129

69.1

5,974

1968

2,516

28.7

6,241

71.3

8,757

1969

1,802

20.8

6,859

79.2

8,661

1970

1,060

21.3

3,926

78.7

4,986

1971

1,838

19.4

7,613

80.6

9,451

1972

1,651

24.4

5,113

75.6

6,764

1973

2,313

49.0

2,409

51.0

4,722

1974

2,355

62.5

1,412

37.5

3,767

1975

3,996

57.5

2,951

42.5

6,947

31,171

38.9

48,871

61.1

80,042

TOTAL

SOURCE:

Row Apartment & Other

Total

Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Prepared by: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department January, 1976

TABLE 44 EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, HOUSING STARTS BY DWELLING TYPE, 1961 - 1975 Dwelling Unit Starts SemiDetached & Duplex

Apartment & Other

Year

Single Family

1961

2,840

62.2

179

3.9

286

6.3

1,257

27.5

4,562

1962

3,248

61.8

254

4.8

282

5.4

1,471

28.0

5,255

1963

2,890

59.2

166

3.4

172

3.5

1,655

33.9

4,883

1964

2,607

58.2

1.7

2.1

1,700

37.9

4,479

1965

2,776

60.6

1.9

1.6

1,645

35.9

4,581

*1966

2,123

56.7

2.0

1,549

41.3

3,746

1967

1,908

31.2

1.2

411

6.7

3,718

60.8

6,111

1968

2,610

29.0

152

1.7

511

5.7

5,730

63.6

9,003

1969

2,368

24.1

152

1.5

588

6.0

6,699

68.3

9,807

1970

1,920

30.3

162

2.5

1,369

21.6

2,879

45.5

6,330

1971

3,154

27.9

168

1.5

1,440

12.7

6,524

57.8

11,286

1972

3,955

41.6

337

3.5

1,545

16.3

3,663

38.5

9,500

1973

4,643

62.9

278

3.8

750

10.1

1,713

23.2

7,384

1974

3,486

65.0

358

6.7

843

15.7

675

12.6

5,362

1975

4,974

57.5

576

6.7

1,687

19.5

1,410

16.3

8,647

TOTAL

45,502

45.1

3,094

3.1

10,052

10.0

42,270

41.9

100,918

SOURCE:

Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation

*In 1966 the C.M.A. boundary changed.

Prepared by: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department January, 1976

Row

Total

TABLE 45 ESTIMATED AND ACTUAL HOUSING STARTS, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1975 - 1978

Year

Projected Increase in Households

1971,to 1974

8,500

1975

8,500

Estimated/Actual Starts (dwelling units)

Estimated Deficit

800 (average) sfd apt

5,000 2,000 1,000

Total

8,000

TOW

1,500

2,000

Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 1 Alternative 2 1976

8,500

10,000

8,000

1977

9,400

10,000

9,000

2,900

1978

9,400

10,000

2,300

500

2,500

NOTES: Alternative 1 assumes escalation of multiple family dwelling, especially apartment, in 1976; whereas in Alternative 2, multiple family development continues to lag.

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

APPENDIX 7 - HOUSING NEED LIST OF TABLES Table 46

Distribution of Annual Household Income, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1961, 1971, 1975.

Distribution of Family Households by Income Quintile, and Age of Head, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1971.

Distribution of Family Households by Income Quintile and Age of Head Showing Incidence of Home Ownership and Average Household Income, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1971.

Household Income by Age of Head by Household Type, City of Edmonton, 1971.

Distribution of Families by 1970 Income Group of Head, Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1971.

Households by Income Showing Tenure and Type of Household, City of Edmonton, 1971.

Households by Type and Income Group Overpaying for Rent, City of Edmonton, 1971.

Increase in Liabilities or Assets as a Proportion of Income - All Families and Individuals in Cities Over 100,000 - 1964, 1967, 1969.

Households with Head over 65 Years of Age by Income and Tenure, City of Edmonton, 1971.

Proportion of Income Spent on Shelter by Quintile Groups - All Families and Individuals in Cities over 100,000 - 1964, 1967, 1969.

Patterns of Housing Expenditure - City of Edmonton, 1964, 1969, 1972.

TABLE 46 DISTRIBUTION OF ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1961, 1971, 1975

Total Household Income

1975 (estimated)* Number

1971

1961

Number

Number less than $1,000

1,534

2.4

3,715

2.6

4,583

2.6

1,000 - 2,999

7,354

11.6

13,205

9.1

12,515

7.1

3,000 - 4,999

18,928

29.6

14,460

10.0

12,339

7.0

5,000 - 6,999

17,840

27.9

17,130

11.8

19,213

10.9

7,000 - 9,999

11,766

18.4

33,065

22.9

30,495

17.3

10,000 - 14,999

6,522

10.2

39,085

27.0

44,067

25.0

15,000 - 19,999

14,380

9.9

32,433

18.4

over $20,000.

9,730

6.7

20,625

11.7

Total Number of Households

63,947

144,770

176,270

* This estimate is derived by applying the following percentage increases to the 1971 distribution: 1971 1972 1973 1974

1972 1973 1974 1975

: : : :

10% 10% 10% 15%

This percentage distribution is an estimate based on changes in weekly earnings of firms with more than 20 employees: 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

$133.71 $147.78 $156.05 $178.65 $207.54

SOURCE: Federal Census 1961, 1971 Statistics Canada PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

10.5% .5.6% 14.5% 16%

TABLE 47 DISTRIBUTION OF FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME QUINTILE, AND AGE OF HEAD, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1971 (Per Cent by Row) INCOME QUINTILE Age of Head (in years)

1 Number

2 Number

less than $4591 $4591-$7100

3 Number

$7101-$9234

4 Number

5 Number

$9235-$12,287 over $12,287

Total

15 - 24

2,531

25.7

2,745

27.9

2,446

24.8

1,536

15.6

586

5.9

9,844

25 - 34

4,371 14.2

6,342

20.6

7,682

25.0

7,182

23.4

5,146

16.7

30,723

35 - 44

4,149

14.2

5,243 18.0

6,269

21.5

6,789

23.2

6,748

23.1

29,198

45 - 54

3,467

15.3

4,026

17.8

3,787

16.7

4,562

20.1

6,802

30.0

22,644

55 - 64

3,266

23.5

2,684

19.3

2,256

16.2

2,450

17.6

3,248

23.4

13,904

5,412 55.5

2,190

22.5

777

8.0

692

7.1

678

6.9

9,749

23,231

20.0

23,216

20.0

23,211

20.0

23,208

20.0

116,062

65 & over All Family Households

23,196

20.0

SOURCE: 1971 percentages were based on the 1969 income distribution obtained from "Family Expenditure in Canada, 1969", Statistics Canada PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch. City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 48 DISTRIBUTION OF FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME QUINTILE AND AGE OF HEAD SHOWING INCIDENCE OF HOME OWNERSHIP AND AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1971 (Percent by Column) INCOME QUINTILE Age of Family Household Head (in years)

1 less than $4591

2 $4591 - $7100

3 $7101 - $9234

4 $9235 - $12,287

5 over $12,287

Total

under 25

10.9

11.8

10.5

6.6

2.5

8.5

25 - 34

18.9

27.3

33.1

30.9

22.2

26.5

35 - 44

17.9

22.6

27.0

29.2

29.1

25.2

45 - 54

14.9

17.3

16.3

19.6

29.3

19.5

55 - 64

14.1

11.6

9.7

10.6

14.0

12.0

over 65

23.3

9.4

3.3

3.0

2.9

8.4

100.0

$2,459

$5,655

$8,139

$10,901

$18,088

$8,139

65.0%

73.0%

57.6%

15.3%

13.2%

17.1%

TOTAL

Average Income, 1969

Incidence of home ownership

41.5%

51.0%

57.0%

Percent of income spent on housing

26.6%

18.1%

17.1%

â&#x20AC;¢

SOURCE: 1971 percentages were based on the 1969 income distribution obtained from "Family Expenditure in Canada, 1969", Statistics Canada PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 49 HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HEAD BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE, CITY OF EDMONTON, 1971

Age of Houaehold Heal (In

No Income

years) under 25

25 - 34

35 - 44

45 - 54

- 64

65 & over

Total

fan non fan total

35 110 145

fa. non fan total

SO 45 125

fan non fan total

15 45 60

fan ton fan totl

15 75 9%

fan non Ian total

40 150 190

fa = non fan total

5 15 20

fa. =sn far

190 (.10 1140

(23.0%)

275 385 660

(19.87.)

450 120 570

(9.5%)

280 100 380

(14.3%)

165 170 335

(30.24)

105 290 395

(3.2%)

50 320 370

(114.0%)

1,325 1,385 2,710

SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada

FEEPAREL EY:

less than $1000

Ees,-,arch 'and Long Range Planning Eranch City of E-1=onton Planning Department Septe=ber, 1975

(24.4%)

$1000 - 2999 820 1,210 2,030

(21.0%)

945 295 1,240

(14.0%)

620 270 890

(12.3%)

490 510 1,000

(14.67.)

390 1,030 1,420

(13.7%)

1,710 3,975 5,685

(100.0%)

4,975 7,290 12,265

(16.6%)

$3000 1,400 1,500 2,900

(10.1%)

1,975 675 2,650

(7.3%)

1,350 430 1,780

(8.1%)

900 600 1,500

(11.6%)

825 895 1,720

(46.37.)

1,795 1,100 2,895

(100.0%)

8,240 5,205 13,445

4999

(21.6%)

$5000 - 6999 1,690 970 2,660

(19.77.)

3,060 875 3,935

(13.27,)

2,130 570 2,700

(11.2%)

1,625 670 2,295

(12.8%)

1,455 660 2,115

(21.5%)

1,415 595 2,010

(100.0%)

11,375 4,340 15,715

$7000 - 9999

$10,000 - 14,999

(16.9%)

2,920 875 3,795

(12.8%)

1,950 615 2,565

(25.0%)

7,630 1,265 8,895

(29.9%)

9,050 845 9,895

(17.2%)

6,270 700 6,970

(23.5%)

8,930 520 9,450

(14.6%)

3,915 675 4,590

.(15.4%)

6,755 405 7,160

(13.5%)

2,885 530 3,415

(11.57,)

3,630 340 3,970

(12.8%)

1,615 440 2,055

(6.9%)

1,330 240 1,570

(100.0%)

25,235 4,485 29,720

(100.0%)

31,645 2,965 34,610

$15,000 - 19,999

$20,000 +

Total

(2.6%)

50 80 130

(1.5%)

9,300 5,920 15,220

(28.6%)

2,500 245 2,745 (21.3%)

980 150 1,130

(12.6%)

26,670 4,515 31,185

(23.E

(27.3%)

3,435 165 3,600 (28.0%)

2,285 110 2,395

(26.7%)

25,315 2,910 28,225

(21.6!,i

3,010 70 3,060

(34.3%)

20,355 3,275 23,1,30

(

1,520 100 1,620

(18.1.!;)

12,660 4,11C 16,7E0

(12.6",)

535 80 615

(6.8%)

9,015 6,865 15,680

(12

8,380 590 8,970 (100.07;)

103,335 27,595 130,930

(7.4%)

160 175 335

(20.7%)

3,480 100 3,580 (27.8%)

(11.5%)

1,830 115 1,945 (15.1%)

(4.5%)

(100.0%)

560 100 660

(5.1%)

11,970 895 12,865(100.0%)

(11.6'

(100.C. )

TABLE 50 DISTRIBUTION OF FAMILIES BY 1970 INCOME GROUP OF HEAD, EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1971 Income Group (per annum)

One Parent Families with Female Head

Families with Male Head

Total

Average Income

9,795

$3,758

20002999

30003999

40004999

50005999

60007999

80009999

2,775

1,540

1,645

1,470

845

820

350

165

100

(8.6%)

(8.4%)

(3.6%)

(1.7%)

(1.0%)

(0.9%)

12,645

8,850

9,790

(11.7%)

(8.2%)

(9.1%) (100.0%)

(28.3%) (15.7%) (16.8%) (15.0%)

4,455

4,745

6,350

8,610

(6.6%)

(4.1%)

(4.4%)

(5.9%)

(8.0%) (22.8%) (19.2%)

SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

24,585

20,750

7,015

10,00011,999

12,00014,999

Under $2000

15,000+

(100.0%)

107,805

$8,853

TABLE 51 HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME SHOWING TENURE AND TYPE OF HOUSEHOLD, CITY OF EDMONTON, 1971 Tenure Household Income

Owned

Rent

Total

No Income Family Non-family

125 40 85

510 145 365

635 190 445

under $1000 Family Non-family

730 395 330

1,970 925 1,045

2,695 1,325 1,375

$1000 - 2999 Family Non-family

4,210 2,130 2,080

8,060 2,845 5,215

12,270 4,975 7,295

$3000 - 4999 Family Non-family

4,290 3,265 1,025

9,160 4,980 4,180

13,445 8,240 5,205

$5000 - 6999 Family Non-family

6,065 5,165 905

9,655 6,210 3,445

15,720 11,375 4,345

$7000 - 9999 Family Non-family

14,765 13,820 945

14,945 11,415 3,530

29,705 25,230 4,475

$10,000 - 14,999 Family Non-family

21,880 21,220 665

12,720 10,415 2,300

34,600 31,635 2,965

$15,000 - 19,999 Family Non-family

9,705 9,450 260

3,160 2,525 635

12,865 11,970 895

$20,000 & over Family Non-family

7,450 7,230 225

1,525 1,155 375

8,975 8,385 595

Total Family Non-family

69,215 62,710 6,505

61,700 40,610 21,095

130,920 103,315 27,600

NOTE: Totals may vary slightly due to rounding. SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 52 HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPE AND INCOME GROUP OVERPAYING FOR RENT* CITY OF EDMONTON, 1971 *Paying More Than 30% of Their Total Household Income to Rent Type of Household Income Group

Family

Non-Family

Total

Cumulative Total

No income

135

360

495

less than $1000

910

840

1,750

2,245

1000 - 2999

2,580

3,215

5,795

8,040

3000 - 4999

2,890

2,220

5,110

13,150

5000 - 6999

1,940

700

2,640

15,790

360

100

460

16,250

8,815

7,435

16,250

7000 - 10,000 TOTAL

*Paying More Than 50% of Their Total Household Income to Rent Type of Household Income Group

Family

Non-Family

Total

Cumulative Total

No income

135

360

495

less than $1000

910

840

1,750

2,245

1000 - 2999

2,305

2,465

4,770

7,015

3000 - 4999

655

280

935

5000 - 7000

7,950 8000

4,035

3,965

8,000

TOTAL

SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 53 INCREASE IN LIABILITIES OR ASSETS AS A PROPORTION OF INCOME - ALL FAMILIES AND INDIVIDUALS IN CITIES OVER 100,000 1964, 1967, 1969

CHANGE DURING YEAR Quintile*

1964

1967

1969

-5%

-8%

-12%

-1%

-3%

-6%

+1%

+4%

+1%

+4%

+2%

+12%

+10%

+8%

*Refer to Table 55 for explanation of quintile boundaries.

SOURCE: Programs in Search of a Policy, M. Dennis and S. Fish, Hakkert, Toronto, 1972, p. 124.

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 54 HOUSEHOLDS WITH HEAD OVER 65 YEARS OF AGE BY INCOME AND TENURE, CITY OF EDMONTON, 1971 Income

Number of Households Owned

None

Renting

(0.1%)

(0.4%)

210

(2.0%)

160

(2.9%)

$1000 - $2999

2,880

(28.0%)

2,795

(50.0%)

$3000 - $4999

1,830

(17.8%)

1,060

(19.0%)

$5000 - $6999

1,425

(13.9%)

590

(10.6%)

$7000 - $9999

1,545

(15.0%)

505

(9.0%)

$10,000 - $14,999

1,315

(12.8%)

255

(4.6%)

$15,000 - $19,999

560

(5.4%)

(1.7%)

$20,000 and over

510

(5.0%)

110

(2.0%)

less than $1000

TOTAL

10,285

100.0%

SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada

Prepared by: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

5,585

100.0%

TABLE 55 PROPORTION OF INCOME SPENT ON SHELTER BY QUINTILE GROUPS - ALL FAMILIES AND INDIVIDUALS IN CITIES OVER 100,000 1964, 1967, 1969 Quintile*

1964

1967

1969

29%

31%

34%

20%

21%

18%

16%

12%

*Quintile Boundaries as follows: 1- 2

$ 3,500

$ 4,000

2 - 3

5,000

6,000

7,000

3 - 4

7,000

8,000

9,000

4 - 5

10,000

12,000

SOURCE: Programs in Search of a Policy, M. Dennis and S. Fish, Hakkert, Toronto, 1972, p. 123

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 56 PATTERNS OF HOUSING EXPENDITURE CITY OF EDMONTON, 1964, 1969, 1972

1964

1969

$5,931 5,841 977

$9,432 9,360 1,395

$11,206 11,176 1,662

16.5%

14.8%

$478 294 32 172

$609 532 84 171

$665 723 78 196

1972

Average: Income Before Taxes Total Expenditure Total Housing Expenditure % total housing total income

Components* of Housing: Owned Rented Other Shelter Fuel, light, water

*These components reflect the average amount spent on each element. Thus the relative amounts spent on ownership versus rentership change as a result not only of increasing costs but also as a result of changing proportions of owners and renters.

SOURCE: Statistics Canada Special Reports Urban Family Expenditure 1964, 1969 and 1972.

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

APPENDIX 8 REGIONAL AND CITY LAND DEMAND ESTIMATES TO 1981 AND 2001

Projection to 1981

Estimates are based on Projection Method II, which places greater emphasis on row housing as an alternate source of family housing (Table 27)

Using the results from Projection Method II for 1981 housing distribution, required increases 1971 - 1981 were calculated. (Table 57)

Applying assumptions regarding the allocation of new housing starts (as described in Tables 57 and 58), the increase was allocated to either the City or the fringe.

Total City stock was calculated in Table 57 by adding the increase for each type of dwelling unit to the total in the City in 1971. (Table 59)

The last column in Table 57 provides information on what proportion of the total of each type of dwelling unit in the region exists in the City. Further analysis is provided in Table 59.

Projection to 2001 1.

The distribution calculated in Table 57 was applied to the total number of starts assumed for the City 1971 - 2001. As indicated in Table 60 this figure was derived as follows: Assuming a population of slightly over one million in the region in 2001, and a household size of 2.6 total number of households in the region will be approximately 400,000. Increase 1971 - 2001 is therefore 250,000. Assuming 70 per cent of this increase will occur in the City, the number of City starts will approximate 175,000.

For analytic purposes the distribution provided in Table 60 compares with trends in the City 1962 to June 1975 as follows: Type of Dwelling

1961 - 1975*

1971 - 2001

Single Family Dwelling

35.9%

31.5%

Duplex and Row

12.8%

20.5%

Apartments

51.3%

48.0%

Total

100.0%

* Estimates derived on a prorated basis from Tables 43 and 44. ** Figure includes projected Mobile Home development.

Appendix 8 3.

The assumed ratio of dwelling units per net acre (based on Planning Departments guidelines) was applied to total dwelling units to achieve total net residential acreage.

Total gross acres was calculated from the assumption that 60 percent of a subdivision is generally devoted to residential use.

APPENDIX 8 REGIONAL AND CITY LAND DEMAND ESTIMATES TO 1981 AND 2001 LIST OF TABLES Table 57

Projected Distribution of Regional Housing Stock, Edmonton Sub-Region, 1981.

City of Edmonton Starts as a Percentage of Starts in the Census Metropolitan Area, 1962 to 1975.

Distribution of Regional Housing Stock, Edmonton Sub-Region, 1971

Projected Absorption of Residential Land Within the City of Edmonton, 1971 - 2001.

Census Tracts by Geographic Area of the City, Showing Household Size, City of Edmonton, 1971.

Projected Densities by Selected Outline Plan Area.

Population Change by Census Tract, City of Edmonton, 1971 to 1975.

Residential Development in the Outline Plan Areas and Outer Suburbs as of June 30, 1975.

Acres of Land Zoned and Developed as Multi-family Residential by Section for the City of Edmonton, 1971.

Inner City Land Development, 1972.

TABLE 57 PROJECTED DISTRIBUTION OF REGIONAL HOUSING STOCK, EDMONTON SUB-REGION, 1981

Dwelling Type Single Family Dwelling

Total Regional Stock 1981*

Assumed** % of Starts Increase to City 1971-1981 1971-1981

Allocation of Increase CITY

FRINGE

REGION

Total City Stock 1981

City as % of Regional Total 1981 1971

132,100

+38,030

50%

19,015

(31.0%) 19,015

(67.8%) 38,030

(42.5%) 97,780

74.0%

Row

26,380

+16,870

75%

12,650

(20.6%)

4,220

(15.0%) 16,870

(18.8%) 20,680

78.4% 84.4%

Apartment

78,980

+32,620

90%

29,360

(47.8%)

3,260

(11.6%) 32,620

(36.5%) 73,110 92.6%

3,000

+1,940

20%

390

(0.6%)

1,550

240,470

+89,460

68.6%

Mobile TOTAL

32.5%

55.2%

61,415 (100.0%) 28,045 (100.0%) 89,460 (100.0%) 192,545

80.1%

86.8%

**This allocation of starts derives from the assumption that the trend observed in the period 1970-1975, where approximately 70% of sub-regional starts occurred in the City, will continue.

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

94.4%

975

(6.0%)

*Total Regional Housing Stock, 1981, is based on the distribution provided by Projection Method II.

SOURCE: City of Edmonton Planning Department

83.7%

1,940

(2.2%)

TABLE 58 CITY OF EDMONTON STARTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF STARTS IN THE CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA, 1962 to 1975

Year

Total

Single Family and Duplex

Apartment & Other

1962

74.8

66.8

90.8

1963

77.9

73.1

85.9

1964

95.6

92.7

100.0

1965

95.6

93.2

99.6

1966

96.5

94.0

100.0

1967

97.8

93.1

100.0

1968

97.3

91.1

100.0

1969

88.3

71.5

94.1

1970

78.8

50.9

92.4

1971

83.7

55.3

95.6

1972

71.2

38.5

98.2

1973

63.9

47.0

97.8

1974

70.2

61.3

93.0

1975

80.3

72.0

95.3

SOURCE: Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department January, 1976

TABLE 59 DISTRIBUTION OF REGIONAL HOUSING STOCK, EDMONTON SUB-REGION 1971 CITY

Single Family Dwelling Row Apartment Mobile

TOTAL

FRINGE

REGION

CITY: REGION (%)

78,765

(62.3%)

15,305

(77.0%)

94,070

(62.3%)

83.7%

8,030

(6.3%)

1,480

(7.4%)

9,510

(6.3%)

84.4%

43,750

(30.7%)

2,610

(13.1%)

46,360

(30.7%)

94.4%

585

(0.4%)

475

(2.4%)

1,060

(0.7%)

55.2%

151,000 (100.0%)

86.8%

131,130 (100.0%)

19,870 (100.0%)

SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada City of Edmonton Planning Department Estimates PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 60 PROJECTED ABSORPTION OF RESIDENTIAL LAND WITHIN THE CITY OF EDMONTON, 1971-2001

Type of Dwelling

Projected Distribution of Startsl

Total Additional Assumed Ratio Dwelling/Unit Starts Net Acre 1971-20012

Total Net Acres

Total Gross Acres3

Single Family Dwellings

31%

54,250

9,040

15,100

Row

20.5%

35,875

2,110

3,520

2,400 4,940

4,010t 8,250

Apartment

48%

Mobile

0.5%

TOTAL

100.0%

35a

84,000

b 17

145

875

13,695a 16,235b

175,000

Total Square Miles

290 22920a ,920Z 27160b

'This distribution derives from the allocation calculated in Table 57â&#x20AC;˘ 2 Assuming a population ofa little over 1,000,000 in the region in 2001, and a household size of 2.6, total households in the region will equal 400,000. Increase 1971-2001 is therefore 250,000. Assuming 70% of this increase will occur in the City, number of City starts will equal 175,000. 3Net residential area is assumed to equal 60% of gross area. Note Alternatives a and b provide estimates of alternative rates of land consumption at two different densities for apartment development. It is assumed that no inner city redevelopment will occur. Under Alternative (a), 760 gross acres of residential land would be absorbed annually. The City currently has within its 1975 boundaries 17,700 acres of undeveloped residential land committed for development, sufficient to accommodate demand until 1994. In addition, 2,600 acres of residential land are included in Outline Plans outside of the present City boundaries (e.g. Riverbend-Terwillegar Heights). Including this land in the calculation would extend the time period to 1997. Finally, approximately 7,200 acres exists inside the City boundaries not as yet committed foi either residential or industrial development. Were it included in the estimation, the City's ability to provide a residential land supply would extend beyond 2001. Calculations are based on the following estimates of land availability: LAND COMMITTED Inside Current City Boundary Mill Woods

5,080 acres

Kaskitayo

1,760

Riverbend/Terwillegar Heights

2,110

West Jasper Place

3,500

Castle Downs

1,920

Clareview/Hermitage

3,330

LAND NOT COMMITTED

Outside City Boundary

2,600 acres

17,700 acres West Edmonton

3,150 acres

South Edmonton

900

North Edmonton

3,160 7,210 acres

SOURCE: City of Edmonton Planning Department

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

TABLE 61 CENSUS TRACTS BY GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF THE CITY, SHOWING HOUSEHOLD SIZE, CITY OF EDMONTON, 1971

Inner City

Inner Suburbs

11 13 14 21 22 23 29 30 31 32 33 34 43 44 45 46 47 48 54 55 56 57 59 60 61

8 9 10 12 15 16 17 20 24 25 27 28 35 36 39 40 41 49 50 51 52 53 58 62 63 64 65 66 67

Outer Suburbs

2 3 4 7 19 26 37 38 42 68 69 70 71 72 73 75

Outline Plan Areas

1 5 76 77 78

Average Household Size: 2.62

3.59

SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada

PREPARED BY: Research & Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

4.04

4.12

TABLE 62 PROJECTED DENSITIES BY SELECTED OUTLINE PLAN AREA

Single Family

Row

Apartment

Average Dwelling Units Per Net Acre

Dwelling Units Outline Plan Area

Total Acreage Gross

Net

Total

* Current Projected Densities Persons/ Persons/ Gross Acre Net Acre

Population Estimates Current

Revised Densities

** Revised Gross

Net

Projected Average Persons Per Dwelling Unit

Kaskitayo

1,690

1,1rc (eat) 9,575

5,100

2,920

1,555

8.0

31.4

37,150

30,220

17.8

25.5

3.1

Castle Downs

1,887

1,392

11,000

5,050

3,080

2,870

7.9

21.2

28.1

39,160

33,090

17.5

23.7

3.0

Mill Woods

5,556

2,652

29,300 11,200

8,900

9,200

11.0

21.6

45.6

120,000

85,820

15.4

32.4

2.9

SOURCE: City of Edmonton Planning Department

* Source: Outline Plans for each respective area.

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

*Based on the projection of 3.4 persons per unit (single family and row) and 1.9 persons per unit (apartment).

** Revised by applying projected average household size figures to dwelling unit estimates.

TABLE 63 POPULATION CHANGE BY CENSUS TRACT CITY OF EDMONTON 1971 to 1975* Inner City 11 13 14 21 22 23 29 30 31 32 33 34 43 44 45 46 47 48 54 55 56 57 59 60 61

-755 -478 -727 +53 +279 +4181 -515 +1141 +564 -52 +395 -464 -432 -377 -332 +11 -648 -580 -727 -769 -586 -1048 -1172 -904 -837

Total -4779

Outer Suburbs

Inner Suburbs 8 9 10 12 15 16 17 20 24 25 27 28 35 36 39 40 41 49 50 51 52 53 58 62 63 64 65 66 67 Total

+993 -461 -142 -674 -898 -643 -663 -898 -321 -652 -861 +509 -616 -742 -1066 -930 -756 -566 -473 -671 -33 -558 +1143 -327 -955 -452 -981 -673 -473

2 3 4 7 19 26 37 38 42 68 69 70 71 72 73 75

-322 +116 -75 +164 -536 -112 -647 -617 +1530 -598 -497 -654 -197 -352 -35 +848

Total

-1984

-13,840

TOTAL CITY INCREASE: 1971 - 1975 = 13,617

*1971 data derives from Federal Census conducted in June. 1975 data dreives from Civic Census conducted in March. SOURCE: Federal Census, 1971 Statistics Canada Uty of Edmonton Civic Census, 1975 PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

Outline Plan Areas 1 5 6 76 77 78 90 Total

+6990 +3248 +4265 +2641 +8658 -,-1671 +6747 +34,220

•

01. WYNN=

a 65

•

19 17 4

15 16

18 I

•

1971 Census Tract and City Boundaries Prepared by: The City of Edmonton Planning Department, Research and Long Range Planning Branch, October 1975 90

TABLE 64 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE OUTLINE PLAN AREAS AND OUTER SUBURBS AS OF JUNI 30, 1975* Area

Single Family Lots

Multiple Family Units

Total

** North East Edmonton (Abbottsfield, Dickensfield)

1,721

1,630

3,351(21.3%)

Mill Woods

2,206

1,070

3,276(20.9%)

South (Duggan, Petrolia)

1,207

1,623

2,830(18.0%)

West Jasper Place

974

1,329

2,303(14.7%)

Riverbend

837

856

1,693(10.8%)

Castle Downs

835

357

1,192( 7.6%)

Clareview-Hermitage

494

282

776( 4.9%)

Kaskitayo

277

277( 1.8%)

TOTAL

SOURCE:

8,551

7,147

City of. Edmonton Planning Department

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

Figures refer to the number of building permits taken out in those areas which have been developing since 1971. A few minor subdivisions, initiated after 1971 but totally developed by June 30, 1975, may have been ignored. Net population growth in these areas from 1971 to 1975 was as follows: ** North East Edmonton 9,884 (31.4%) 6,782 (21.6%) Mill Woods 5,769 (18.3%) South West Jasper Place 3,999 (12.7%) 2,804 ( 8.9%) Riverbend 2,190 ( 7.0%) Castle Downs 31,428 ** It should be noted that North East Edmonton development figures do not include Rundle Heights, whereas the population figures do include this area. The area experienced a population increase of approximately 2,800 people 1971-1975.

15,698

TABLE 65 ACRES OF LAND ZONED AND DEVELOPED AS MULTIFAMILY RESIDENTIAL BY SECTION FOR THE CITY OF EDMONTON, 1971

Zoning Categories:

R-2, R-2A, R-3, R-3A, R-4

% Dev'd in 1971

Acres Zoned in 1971

Acres Dev'd in 1971

56.9 62.9 11.8 81.9 17.4 69.7 69.1 37.1 14.8 89.0 2.1 63.0 7.4 100.0 92.4 51.5 19.0 100.0 -

109.1 24.4 40.4 17.5 133.1 18.6 10.5 14.7 5.8 26.4 38.8

74.6 8.6

Acres Dev'd in 1971

% Dev'd in 1971

Acres Zoned in 1971

1 2 3 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 20

80.7 3.3 10.2 131.2 5.5 0.4 4.5 9.8 31.7 24.8 2.2

70.7 3.0 2.6 31.7 0.6 0.0 3.4 2.0 26.8 1.3 0.1

87.6 90.6

90.5 14.4 25.0 53.7 16.7 3.3 7.4 55.8 19.0 -

43.0

16.4

38.2

28.5

15.1

52.8

13.7 0.4 113.5

Total

347.3

158.6

45.7

314.3

233.1

74.2

566.90 325.9

Section1

25.1 24.1 10.9 45.5 76.3 20.1 84.7 5.2 4.0

R-4

R-3A

R-3

R-2A

R-2 Acres Zoned in 1971

% Dev'd in 1971

68.3 35.2 18.6 100.0 40.4 31.5 5.5 35.6 26.8 67.8 12.6 67.9 7.1 14.7 100.0 5.8 100.0 23.5 88.8 85.8 33.3 93.1 12.7 0.4 100.0 45.0 51.1 57.5

Acres Acres Zoned Dev'd In in 1971 1971 14.4 -

14.4 -

14.4

% Acres Dev'd Zoned in in 1971 1971

Acres % Dev'd Dev'd in in 1971 1971 6.0 5.8 20.1 7.8 5.7 2.8 34.5 1.0 18.3 24.0 18.9 3.3 3.4 1.8 2.0 24.1

100.0 22.9 18.6 6.2 39.5 17.2 48.2 88.1 27.0 43.7 20.0 20.3 60.5 7.6 87.8 24.9 -

100.0 724.0 179.5

24.8

100.0 -

6.0 25.2 108.5 124.6 14.5 10.2 71.6 1.2 67.8 55.0 94.9 16.1 5.6 23.5 2.3 97.0

Zoning Categories: R-5, R-7, R-7, Total

Acres Dev'd in 1971

% Dev'd in 1971

Acres Zoned in 1971

Acres Dev'd in 1971

1 2 3 5 7

29.1 -

21.2 -

72.8 -

9 10 11 12 33 14 15 16 17 18 20

69.0 78.6 6.4 6.5 36.7 0.9 46.1 98.2

43.1 21.0 6.4 5.2 34.6 16.5 9.8

62.5 26.7 100.0 79.5 94.1 0.0 35.7 9.9

Total

371.5

157.8

Section l

Source: NOTES:

R-7

R-6

R-5 Acres Zoned in 1971

7. Dev'd in 1971

Acres Zoned in 1971

_ -

1.0 4.7 144.2 4.6 31.3 -

_ 1.0 1.9 35.5 1.4 13.5 -

100.0 41.9 24.6 29.6 43.2 -

14.8 -

185.8

53.3

28.7

14.8

0.7

Acres Dev'd in 1971

ALL MULTIPLE FAMILY % Dev'd in 1971

Acres Zoned in 1971

Acres Dev'd in 1971

% Dev'd in 1971

_ _ 5.0 -

286.3 67.3 108.5 229.3 216.9 179.9 90.6 19.5 162.3 68.2 178.2 136.4 94.7 219.2 23.7 174.8 283.2

208.2 29.2 20.1 89.4 80.0 68.2 47.1 13.6 79.1 37.2 41.8 111.5 62.2 72.6 16.2 54.5 92.4

72.2 _ 43.4 18.5 39.0 36.9 37.9 52.0 69.7 48.7 54.6 23.5 81.7 65.7 33.1 6,.4 31.2 32.6

5.0

2539.0

1123.3

44.2

0.7

Zoning Study, City of Edmonton Planning Department, 1972 1 "Sections" are illustrated by the accompanying map. 2 In 1971, Sections 4, 6, 19 and 21 contained no land zoned for multifamily use.

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City Planning Department September, 1975

IMil

kallirlarlir717 111:41.116 illsilrearaphigk

Tilt%

to. aa • aaIssiseltopp gesssissessi 1 4 is hi ii :1111111fIRSI If •

Orrin IiihilliBi ibEtiAm, IRIMinpriMink IMO 1111111F011111 4 " 11911,a 1 a si 4. ry, no inI4111111121 t w sus f o ingill ic . .1.7 d. • 1• 1 0 01,0 0 ogy,Imusuawm

•

• immimmismum ,sessoms L ie'imill:awnprutra'ainnill

31111 1 1? 11111111111 - g IMOO.

3711PINPV

•

vs: Om won %, , ,. '• ''" •,- I_ ....4 , osisss,;. "04 • is mkt,

in„...... .!!! p miaow 14141-,, aaaaaa..,assiss, ,assussiss omputiontftsi-tfiLls. t i•.jjjjijiijIIijiiiiiiii c/IPPtleo. -"w1111111111111111! ,om tto,181 1st _g zo If It. "•Ot •••••••J

MOO ..11211 4 A iffilligniq

Mal

Explanation for Table 65

111111 ILI I I WI

AIM 4

I /1411::/ ;.,

Study Sections

=4±1 1k

00% cto,...1

EVREIPS1111 eth gin r e

Source : City of Edmonton Planning Department August 1972

TABLE 66 INNER CITY LAND DEVELOPMENT, 1972

Zoning Type

Areas Not Developed To Maximum

Areas of High Concentration

(No. of Acres) R3

528

5; 3; 13; 18; 9; 11; 12

125

13; 11; 18

132

TOTAL

819

(Refer to map following for location of areas.)

SOURCE: Zoning Study, City of Edmonton Planning Department, 1972

PREPARED BY: Research and Long Range Planning Branch City of Edmonton Planning Department September, 1975

APPENDIX 9

EXTERNAL PROJECTIONS OF HOUSEHOLDS AND DWELLINGS FOR EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 67

Actual and Projected Numbers of Households Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, 1956 - 1986.

Projected Dwellings by Type and Tenure, Edmonton Sub-Region, 1971 - 1986.

Household Estimates for 9 Major Cities and Canada 1971 - 1986 - 2001.

TABLE 67 ACTUAL AND PROJECTED NUMBERS OF HOUSEHOLDS EDMONTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA 1956 TO 1986 (000's) SINGLE NON-FAMILIES

ONE-PARENT FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS

EDMONTON 1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 +

0.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.1

0.1 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.0

0.3 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.0 1.1

0.6 2.1 2.4 2.2 1.0 1.1

1.1 3.5 3.0 2.6 1.1 1.1

1.6 5.5 4.1 2.8 1.1 1.1

1.8 8.1 6.4 2.9 1.0 1.2

25-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 +

0.9 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1

1.4 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.1

3.4 2.4 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.9

6.3 3.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.5

10.4 5.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0

13.9 7.3 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.6

15.7 8.1 2.9 2.2 2.8 3.3

TOTAL

3.9

5.0

7.2

9.5

12.3

16.2

21.4

TOTAL

3.7

5.7

10.2

15.9

23.4

30.3

34.9

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 +

1.0 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 2.1

1.5 1.9 1.5 1.7 2.0 3.7

3.5 2.9 2.1 2.5 3.1 5.3

6.4 4.4 2.6 3.4 4.6 7.6

10.5 7.7 3.2 4.5 6.3 10.4

14.0 11.5 4.1 5.1 8.2 13.9

15.8 15.2 6.0 5.6 10.2 18.2

TOTAL

7.5

12.3

19.4

29.2

42.6

56.8

71.1

AGE

TOTAL NON-FAMILIES HUSBAND-WIFE FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS AGE

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 +

2.8 15.8 14.4 9.7 5.4 4.3

3.8 21.4 19.5 13.1 7.3 5.8

5.3 22.5 23.2 15.9 9.5 6.7

7.4 29.3 26.0 19.6 12.4 8.2

9.1 41.8 28.0 22.8 15.5 10.0

9.8 58.4 33.5 24.1 19.3 12.5

8.9 75.5 45.5 24.8 23.2 15.3

TOTAL

52.4

70.9

83.1

103.0

127.3

157.6

193.1

AGE

TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS

TOTAL FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS AGE

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

AGE

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 +

2.8 16.2 15.1 10.6 6.2 5.4

3.9 22.1 20.7 14.3 8.1 6.8

5.6 34.8 25.0 17.6 10.5 7.8

8.1 31.4 28.5 21.8 13.4 9.3

10.2 45.3 31.0 25.4 16.5 11.2

11.4 63.9 37.6 26.9 20.4 13.6

10.8 83.6 51.8 27,8 24.2 6.4

15-24 25-34 34-44 45-54 55-64 65 +

3.8 17.4 16.0 11.7 7.4 7.5

5.4 24.0 22.2 16.0 10.1 10.5

9.1 26.7 27.1 20.1 13.6 13.1

14.5 35.8 31.1 25.2 18.0 16.9

20.7 53.0 33.2 29.9 22.8 21.6

25.4 75.4 41.7 32.0 28.6 27.5

26.6 98.8 57.8 33.4 34.4 34.6

TOTAL

56.3

75.9

90.3

112.5

139.6

173.8

214.6

TOTAL

63.8

88.2

109.7

141.7

182.2

230.6

285.7

EVER-MARRIED NON-FAMILIES 1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 +

0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 2.0

0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 3.6

0.1 0.5 0.7 1.3 2.2 4.4

0.1 1.0 1.0 1.9 â&#x20AC;¢ 3.2 6.1

0.1 2.3 1.4 2.6 4.4 8.4

0.1 4.2 2.0 3.0 5.8 11.3

0.1 7.3 3.1 3.5 7.4 14.9

TOTAL

3.8

6.6

9.2

13.3

19.2

26.4

36.1

AGE

SUMMARY AVERAGE ANNUAL CHANGE IN TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS 1956 1961 4.9

1961 1966 4.2

1966 1971 6.4

1971 1976 8.1

1976 1981 9.7

SOURCE: John S. Kirkland, "Demographic Aspects of Housing Demand to 1986", Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 1971

1981 1986 11.0

TABLE 68 PROJECTED DWELLINGS BY TYPE AND TENURE1, EDMONTON SUB-REGION, 1971-1986 (as prepared by Edmonton Regional Planning Commission)

Type and Tenure

1971 actual

All dwellings

1986

1976

1981

152,195

195,120

245,040

300,190

owned rented

86,080 66,115

105,264 89,856

131,096 113,944

160,264 139,926

Single detached

96,610

118,968

148,309

181,352

owned rented

79,360 17,250

97,181 21,787

120,977 27,332

147,877 33,475

Single attached

9,240

11,870

14,754

18,027

owned rented

2,365 6,875

2,769 9,101

3,442 11,312

4,206 13,821

44,715

63,008

80,383

98,859

3,030 41,685

4,085 58,923

5,142 75,241

6,302 92,557

1,615

1,274

1,594

1,952

Apartment or flat owned rented Mobile homes

Table Note: 1 This table utilizes the relationships between types (family and nonfamily) and dwelling structural type contained in the 1971 census. Source: Edmonton Regional Growth Studies Technical Paper 3, Table 19, p. 101, 1975.

TABLE 69

HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES FOR MAJOR 9 CITIES AND CANADA 1971-1986-2001 (IN 000s)

CENSUS METRO AREA

NO. OF HOUSEHOLDS AND OCCUPIED STOCK REQUIRED 1971

Increase

1986

Increase

2001

Vancouver

347

+ 34-

680

+ 62

750

Calgary

121

+ 142

263

300

Edmonton

144

+ 147

291

330

Winnipeg

167

+ 82

249

+ 41

290

Hamilton

147

+ 90

237

+ 43

280

Toronto

776

+ 732

1508

+ 192

1700

Ottawa - Hull

172

+ 159

331

360

Montreal

808

+ 456

1264

1400

Quebec

128

+ 113

231

+ 19

250

Total 9 Cities

2810

+2252

5062

+598

5660

Canada

6063

+3365

9428

+1072

SOURCE:

Habitat, A Publication of Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation

10,500

Th-D

... .

APPENDIX 10 FEDERAL HOUSING ACTION PROGRAM BACKGROUND/EXPLANATORY NOTES (Excerpts)

INTRODUCTION Most Canadians are well housed. Many of them bought their houses years ago at prices and interest rates which are now well within their means. Many of them, in relative terms, have profited by inflation. If they want to move up in the housing market -- from a three bedroom to a four bedroom house, from a single garage to a double garage -- they have a substantial equity to reinvest. They can drive prices out of reach and squeeze out people who are in real need. At the same time, there are hundreds of thousands of Canadian -- including many senior citizens and native people -- who are badly housed and paying too much of their income for shelter. These people, historically, have been the main target of federal housing programs and it is essential that this kind of assistance be strengthened. There is also a growing group of people who used to be able to look after their own needs but now need some public help. Federal and provincial programs have been introduced to help these people with what is essentially a cash-flow problem, and this effort will be stepped up over the next 4 years in order to meet our housing and anti-inflation goals. The federal program is intended to deal with three immediate housing objectives: First:

To increase production of more moderately priced housing units for both sale and rental purposes.

Second:

To enable Canadians to afford the housing that is produced.

Third:

To prevent people who are already well-housed from taking advantage of the situation to improve their accommodation and economic position beyond any reasonable need.

Housing is an important factor in the federal attack on inflation and the new housing initiatives will play an important role not only in human terms but also in economic terms, in the creation of employment opportunities, while restraining inflationary pressures. The Supply Problem The program will commit the federal government to stimulate the production of 1 million new housing units over the next four years and will guide our national resources into the kind of housing Canadians need.

Appendix 10

The Affordability Problem The program will maintain a high level of activity in lower income housing while, at the same time, reducing the carrying costs for people who want to buy moderately priced housing. It will ensure economic viability in the rental market and create a climate that will encourage investment and production of housing for rent at moderate rates. The Excessive Demand Problem The program will restrict the credit that is currently available for high priced housing, hold the line on rent and price limits under present federal housing programs, and put housing expectations into a reasonable perspective.

Source: Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation November, 1975

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