Edmonton (Alta.) - 1981 - Urban growth strategy_phase i final report (1981-12) by Edmonton Tower Resource Centre Online Library

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URBAN GROWTH STRATEGY PHASE I FINAL REPORT

City of Edmonton Planning Department December 1981

URBAN GROWTH STRATEGY PHASE I FINAL REPORT

TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE

Table of Contents List of Maps List of Tables Executive Summary Annexation Decision and Mandate Basis of the Urban Growth Strategy

iii iv 1 4 5

PART I: RECOMMENDATIONS The Urban Growth Strategy

Employment Strategy

Residential Development Strategy

C. D.

Agricultural Land Conservation Transportation and Servicing Strategy

15 16

E. F.

Special Study Areas Fiscal Consultant's Evaluation of the Urban Growth Strategy

18 19

PART II: BACKGROUND INFORMATION AND ANALYSIS 1.

Introduction

Policy Review 2.1 The Role of Edmonton in the Region 2.2 Regional Growth Strategy 2.3 Municipal Growth Strategy

22 22 22 23

Demand Analysis for Future Growth 3.1 Population and Employment Growth 3.2 Residential Development 3.3 Industrial Development

26 26 29 35

Development Issues 4.1 Public Concerns 4.2 Development Industry Concerns 4.3 Intergovernmental Issues 4.4 Agricultural Land Conservation 4.5 Development Around Existing Uses 4.6 Activity Centre Locations 4.7 Energy Conservation

44 44 44 45 46 47 48 50

PAGE 5.

Alternative Strategies 5.1 Importance of Alternatives 5.2 Generation of Alternatives 5.3 Evaluation Criteria 5.4 Utility Costs 5.5 Fiscal Impact 5.6 Transportation Efficiency 5.7 Qualitative Criteria 5.8 Summary and Conclusions

51 51 51 57 59 59 63 64 68

Existing Conditions 6.1 Land Uses 6.2 Zoning 6.3 Physical Constraints and Opportunities

84 84 85 86

APPENDICES A. B. C. D. E. F.

Existing Land Use Issue Matrix Citizen Participation and Information Program Committees Associations and Citizens Involved During Phase I of the Urban Growth Strategy Study Preliminary Area Structure Plan Proposals Consultants for the Urban Growth Strategy Project

LIST OF MAPS

A. B.

Urban Growth Strategy - Phase I Implementation Urban Growth Strategy - Generalized Long Term Land Use (Maps A and B follow Part I.) 1A, B 1C 2 3 4 5A 5B 6 7 8A 8B 8C 9 10A

10B

Existing Land Use General Land Use Patterns Ward Boundaries Analysis Areas Development Areas - Approved and Proposed Municipal Zoning Regional Zoning Agricultural Land Classification Agricultural Conservation Areas Arterial Road Network Cost Sharable Arterial Network Regional Road Network Noise Exposure For Airports Mineral Resources - Sand and Gravel Mineral Resources - Oil and Gas

11 12 13A, B 13C 14A 14B 15A, B, C 15D 16A 163 16C 16D 21 22 23 24 25

Oil and Natural Gas Wells Land Assessment Sanitary Servicing Sanitary Systems Overview Water System Water System - Key Feature Plan Storm Water Servicing Drainage Basins Power Transmission Lines Major Telephone Facilities Main Oil, Gas and Products Pipelines Concentrated Pipeline Zones Alternative Al - Trend Alternative A2 - Modified Trend Alternative B - Opportunities and Constraints Alternative C - Concentrated Corridor Regional Activity Centres

Maps 1-25 follow the Appendices. *Maps 17-20 were used for presentation purposes only and have not been reproduced for this report. They include geotechnical information provided by the Alberta Research Council.

ill

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE NO.

PAGE

3-1

Projected Growth, Edmonton Metropolitan Region

3-2

Projected Population, City of Edmonton

3-3

Projected Percentage Breakdown of Housing Stock and Construction by Dwelling Type, Metro Edmonton Region 1981-2001

3-4

Projected Dwelling Unit Requirements 1981-2021, City of Edmonton and Metropolitan Region

3-5

Projected Percentage Breakdown of Housing Stock and Construction by Dwelling Type, City of Edmonton 1981-2001

3-6

Residential Land Requirements to Maintain 10-Year Supply

3-7

Industrial Land Supply and Demand - City of Edmonton 1981-2001

5-1

Gross Capital Costs for Utilities (Indexed)

5-2

Fiscal Impact of Alternative Strategies (Indexed)

5-3

Comparison of Revenues (Indexed)

5-4

Assessment Ratios Under Alternative Strategies

5-5

Transportation Debt Service As Percentage of Tax-Supported Service Costs (Percent)

5-6

Comparison of Transportation Costs (Indexed)

5-7

Comparison of Costs for Municipal Services Other Than Transportation (Indexed)

5-8

Comparison of School Costs (Indexed)

5-9

Transportation Service Costs ($-Millions)

5-10

Transportation System Performance

5-11

Departmental Preferences

5-12

Summary of Evaluation

5-13

Examples of Weighted Evaluations

URBAN GROWTH STRATEGY PHASE I FINAL REPORT

City of Edmonton Planning Department December 1981

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Phase I Urban Growth Strategy Report sets out a general policy framework for growth within the recently approved Annexation boundaries. An intensive effort completed in less than five months, it will be refined based on futher analysis during Phase II. The Strategy provides urban growth policies based on Alberta's extraordinary resource development opportunities and Edmonton's positive and optimistic role in realizing these potentials. The Urban Growth Strategy policies in this report will accommodate growth in form that will: result in employment growth leading overall growth. This will be aided by designation of a third of all developable land as industrial and commercial;

distribute major employment concentrations near existing and proposed population to achieve efficiency in transporation and energy; provide housing in a form and quantity suitable for future populations; and

protect lands with high agricultural potential for as long as they are not required for urbanization.

â&#x20AC;˘

In this way the City will: -

utilize the existing City, Regional and Provincial service infrastructure in an efficient manner;

utilise the existing and proposed capacities for land development within both the old and the new City limits more efficiently; and

provide the City with much needed revenues from employment areas to adequately plan delivery of services to residential areas.

A detailed discussion of the following major policy components is fOund in the report.

Employment Strong economic growth in Alberta's economy could increase employment in the Edmonton Region from 501,200 jobs in 1991 to over 1,000,000 in 2021. The City's share of regional growth will create large demands for services and land for industrial and commercial uses. To meet these long term needs for industrial land, approximately 11,130 gross hectares (27,500 acres) have been designated for future employment areas. In addition an early start to preparing or revising Industrial Area Structure Plans is proposed in the annexation area. â&#x20AC;˘The Urban Growth Strategy identifies new and exisoting locations for future Town Centres. The strategy sets priorities for development of already planned and approved "town centres". New town centres should be approved as warranted by population growth. Decentralization of employment centres close to residential areas will help conserve energy and reduce transportation costs.

Residential Land Needs The City's population is estimated to grow from 750,100 in 1991 to 1,525,600 in 2021. To meet land and services requirements to house these people, the urban growth strategy proposes to: support increased use of appropriate underdeveloped lands in the 1981 City, thus increasing the use of the City's existing soft and hard infrastructure;

minimize costs to the City and the development industry for

new services by staging development of new areas; and ensure that the supply of vacant residential land in approved area structure plan areas is sufficient at all times to meet population growth for 10 years. An early start to planning new Residential Area Structure Plans within the RDA will ensure a sufficient supply of residential land in the planning stage at least 10 years before the demand is realized.

Transportation and Servicing Strategy Once the City's long and short range land use requirements are established, the need for transport facilities, water, sanitary and storm sewers, utilities and other services can be determined. A detailed analysis of the costs of staging can then be completed. Hard services studies for lands in which Area Structure Plans are proposed should be undertaken promptly so that services may be extended on a mutually acceptable schedule.

Agricultural Land Conservation Given the City's commitment to conserve prime agricultural land within its future boundaries and the provincial decision on annexation which supported this philosophy, the Urban Growth Strategy identifies lands having prime potential for agriculture conservation. Only the most

productive agricultural lands are proposed for long term conservation. 5.

Areas for Special Study Phase II of the Urban Growth Strategy should be undertaken to reassess and refine the strategy in light of further major technical studies and other work. These include major transportation plans as well as infrastructure and utilities studies. In addition, within a number of areas outside the R.D.A., complex technical or policy problems exist which cannot be resolved in the normal course of analysis and review of Area Structure Plans. These are located in the Northeast, the South and the West. They include respectively a large Provincial Land Assembly and related problems, major public decisions on the funding, timing and location of regional infrastructure, and integration of a proposed major urban development expansion onto the Enoch Band Reserve, immediately west of the City. Finally, before an Urban Growth Strategy is adopted, the community, the development industry, and all levels of government should be given sufficient opportunity to provide input into longer term plans. During the second phase of the Study, this process is likely to receive considerable public attention.

ANNEXATION DECISION AND MANDATE On March 22, 1979, the City of Edmonton applied to the Provincial Government for a major annexation of land to enable the City to effectively manage its growth and development. The City based its submission to the Local Authorities Board of Alberta on the need for sufficient land for long range planning and industrial development, and on the City's ability to manage prime agricultural lands within its boundary and to develop a compact urban form. On June 12, 1981 the Provincial Government approved the annexation of 86,000 acres of land to the City of Edmonton, effective January 1, 1982. The Province, in its decision, stated that this land should meet Edmonton's growth needs for 30-40 years. The decision also stressed that the City should: accommodate 75 percent of the population growth in the Metropolitan Region during this time horizon; -

avoid urban sprawl and low density urban development; and

preserve highly productive agricultural land.

On July 7, 1981, City Council authorized the preparation of an Urban Growth Strategy for the City of Edmonton, to be completed in two phases: Phase I was to' outline long range land use for the annexed area, indicating those areas for which Area Structure Plans might proceed in 1982. It was to be presented to the Municipal Planning Commission by the end of 1981 and to Council at its first meeting in January 1982.

Phase II of the Urban Growth Strategy, which would continue until mid-1983, would provide a more detailed analysis for future planning. This phase would also provide appropriate amendments to the General Municipal Plan. The Urban Growth Strategy Phase I Report has been prepared based upon the City's rationale for requesting annexation and the guidelines of the Provincial decision.

BASIS OF THE URBAN GROWTH STRATEGY Objectives The Urban Growth Strategy was guided by the following objectives for future development of the annexed areas: -

effective use of the annexed area's renewable and non-renewable resources;

orderly and economic urban development to create and maintain a compact urban form; provision of a full range and appropriate level of public and utility services;

provision of a safe, economical and efficient transportation network to effectively meet the needs of the travelling public; and

establishment of urban growth policies to protect the environment, conserve scarce resources and enhance the quality of life.

Through public consultation, the following additional goals were included: support for a competitive urban land market;

support of energy conservation;

optimization of the City's tax base split between residential and nonresidential land uses; provision of adequate choices in employment and residential locations throughout the City; and confirmation of the City's commitment to "wise stewardship" of prime agricultural lands.

Planning Process In the past five months the planning process for 134.5 square miles of annexed lands in the City of Edmonton has been rapid and intensive. It has involved major research and analysis work by the Planning Department, coordination of the work of a number of consultants, and the organization of public meetings and liaison committees.

-5

Consultants provided input on matters such as legislative policy, engineering services, agricultural potential, and the fiscal impacts of different land use alternatives. Liaison committees which were involved in or exposed to the work of the Phase I Strategy included the Development Industry Liaison Committee Intergovernmental Liaison Committee and the Interdepartmental Liaison Committee. A number of public meetings and open houses were held in the annexed areas. Senior Planning staff also met with many individuals and interest groups and considered written briefs and development proposals. In addition, Commission Board, the Municipal Planning Commission and City Council were kept informed of progress of the Study as the work proceeded. The Projection of Growth Requirements

One of the basic steps in the preparation of the Urban Growth Strategy was to estimate the population and employment growth that may have to be accommodated within the new City limits. The following estimates were based on Provincial and Regional data and directions in the Provincial decision on annexation. These projections are for the expanded City area and are based on assumptions of a strong performance expected in economic and population growth rates until at least the end of this century. Performance below these expectations could either result in extension of the timeline to a later date or downward revision of population and employment projections.

EMPLOYMENT

POPULATION

YEAR

CITY

REGION

CITY

REGION

1981

530,400

702,300

308,800

325,200

1986 1991

638,900 750,100

851,800

371,300

1996 2001 2011 2021

865,700 983,300 1,233,200 1,525,000

1,000,100 1,154,300 1,312,100 1,644,300 2,034,100

436,300 505,600 570,200 702,100 780,300

418,800 501,200 578,400 657,200 824,000 1,019,300

After taking into account growth that could be accommodated in the region outside the annexed area and within the 1981 City limits, remaining growth to be absorbed in the annexed lands was calculated. From the expected levels of employment and population on these lands, estimates of total demand

-6

for residential, commercial, industrial and other land uses were prepared. These demands were used in developing alternative land use scenarios.

Development of Alternatives To identify land areas with potentials and constraints such as suitability for urban development, agricultural conservation, recreational uses, mineral resources and economic extension of services, a preliminary land capability analysis was carried out. Four alternative development strategies were generated to incorporate and test as many ideas as possible from the community, including the development industry and citizens' groups. These selected alternatives were: Al -

The Trend - based on an extrapolation of various preliminary development proposals submitted by the development industry.

Modified Trend - which incorporated substantial additional indus-

trial

and commercial uses as well as a staging program.

Constraints and Opportunities - this alternative attempted to address substantial environmental concerns and included slightly higher densities and a staging program. Concentrated Corridor - which emphasized high density development concentrated in areas nearest planned Light Rail Transit routes. The trend alternative assumed that no staging would occur while all others incorporated staging in different ways. A fiscal impact analysis was performed on all the alternatives. Data was collected from various civic departments and outside agencies to estimate costs and revenues that would be generated for the City under each alternative. This data was analyzed by a fiscal consultant. The fiscal impact report states that "the modified trend provides the best overall fiscal balance of the four alternatives. This can be attributed to the relatively high percentage of non-residential development and the staging of development. The high density transportation corridor alternative performed best after 2001". The alternatives were also tested for transportation and energy efficiencies. A further examination of the alternatives was conducted using qualitative criteria: the quality of public services, scope for market competition, resource efficiency, environmental sensitivity, maintenance of existing communities,

-7

Departmental preferences, development industry perference (for the trend alternative) and residents' preferences (for the constraints and opportunities alternative). The comparative evaluaton of the four alternative strategies indicated that the optimum development strategy for the annexed area would be a hybrid incorporating the following elements: designation of as much land for employment-related uses as can reasonably be expected to be absorbed by market demand for commercial and industrial land; encouragement of high density commercial and industrial uses in new employment areas to maximize the number of employment opportunities; formulation of a residential staging policy which balances the need to minimize servicing costs with the need for adequate competition in the housing market and for a smooth transition in servicing between the existing City and the annexed area; promotion of efficient subdivision layouts and compact building forms to encourage the maximum unit and population densities which can reasonably be expected, given the projected composition of future housing demand; consideration of transportation and servicing efficiency; and designation of agricultural or natural resource conservation areas. These conclusions were integrated with the objectives identified earlier and

the findings of the various consultants to produce the Urban Growth Strategy. The Urban Growth Strategy - A Hybrid of Four Alternatives

The Urban Growth Strategy incorporates many of the strongest features of the four alternatives, including moderately higher densities consistent with the ranges defined in Alternatives A2 and B, agricultural conservation as expressed in Alternatives B and C, emphasis on industrial and commercial assessment as expressed in Alternative A2 and a staging program as in Alternatives A2, B and C. The areas identified for Area Structure Plan preparation in Phase I are areas in which the projected land use was essentially the same in all the alternatives. In Phase II, many options remain open to further refine the Urban Growth Strategy. -8

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THE URBAN GROWTH STRATEGY The long term thrust of the Urban Growth Strategy is to accommodate growth with the fullest possible response to market demand in a form which: -

encourages the development of industrial and commercial employment opportunities in the annexed area in advance of population growth to maximize assessment and achieve efficient use of the City's transportation system; provides housing in a form and quantity suitable for future populations through a staged program that will reduce the cost and improve the timing of services while maintaining healthy market competition in the real estate and development industries; and

protects lands with high agricultural potential for as long as they are not required for urbanization.

If adopted and implemented the policies will create a compact City that

will: utilize the existing City, Regional and Provincial service infrastructure in an efficient manner; ulitize the existing and proposed capacities for land development within both the old and the new City limits efficiently; and -

provide the City with revenues from employment areas to adequately plan delivery of services to residential areas.

Policies and growth projections must contain a review mechanism for consultation with the citizens, property owners and decision makers. An on-going review mechanism of the strategies is suggested in the policies with a major examination of the policies now planned during the second phase of the Study. A. EMPLOYMENT STRATEGY 1.

Expanding Employment Opportunities

Policy:

The City will expand employment opportunities by designating and servicing industrial and commercial areas in the annexed lands.

Discussion: A basic objective of the City of Edmonton is to encourage industrial and commercial development within its boundaries that will strengthen and diversify its economic base, as well as provide a variety of skilled job opportunities. The City should strive to maximize the amount of industrial and commercial development occurring within its jurisdiction, especially in light of the positive economic outlook for Edmonton. The value to the City of increased economic development in existing and newly annexed areas has been an important consideration in developing this Urban Growth Strategy. It is the key element and basis for the growth assumptions built into the Strategy. The City is responding to favourable growth and investment trends and forecasts and is gearing up to accommodate a substantial portion of the growth destined for the Alberta economy. 2.

Designating Additional Employment Areas

Policy:

The City will authorize the preparation of Area Structure Plans for lands indicated on Map A that are identified for future industrial-commercial purposes on Map B.

Discussion: By authorizing the preparation of Area Structure Plans in the areas identified for future industrial-commercial purposes, the City will be providing for an estimated 2,065 gross hectares (5,100 gross acres) of newly designated industrial-commercial land to be planned, and eventually developed. When added to the estimated 5,970 gross hectares (14,750 gross acres) of currently designated vacant industrial-commercial land within the 1982 City boundary, the City will have a total of 8,035 gross hectares (19,850 gross acres) of vacant industrial - commercial land. Based on current demand projections, this should last beyond the year 2001.

The general criteria used to designate additional industrialcommercial lands for future development are as follows: a)

continuity to existing employment areas within the City and adjacent areas;

focus on transportation corridors and transportation access; and

- 10 -

providing decentralized employment concentrations throughout the City.

These reserves of industrial land will likely be augmented by additional designations in the south, west and northeast as illustrated on Map B. Prior to identification, however, these areas will be subject to Special Studies during Phase II of the Urban Growth Strategy. 3.

Commercial Uses in Employment Areas

Policy:

The City will develop policies to efficiently accommodate the development of commercial uses in employment areas.

Discussion: The development of substantial, yet unknown quantities of commercial development in employment areas has resulted from restrictive land use controls and private sector policies. Employment areas have received commercial development that might otherwise have gone into new strip commercial areas without tight land use controls. They have also received commercial growth that is not usually allowed in community or regional shopping centres because of restrictive mall management policies. While commercial development was seen in the past as using up valuable industrial land and competing directly with Town Centres and employment nodes, it does provide essential services and often introduces higher standards of architectural and landscaping design into employment areas. What is required is the establishment of guidelines for the location and development of commercial uses in employment areas, the purpose being to recognize a significant market demand for planned, low density, commercial uses in the City. In addition, a review of the basic principles the City has applied in the planning of industrial areas would have to be undertaken. Particular emphasis should be placed on the relationship between the General Municipal Plan and the Land Use Bylaw in developing guidelines for commercial development. 4.

Expanding the Town Centre Network

Policy:

The City will develop and extend the existing network of planned Town Centres into the annexed lands. - 11 -

Discussion: The General Municipal Plan identifies a hierarchical pattern of retail development which the Urban Growth Strategy supports and has extended into the annexed lands. Planned Town Centres are a refinement of this hierarchical pattern of development. Town Centres can include, in addition to a retail component, office commercial, institutional, residential and transportation related uses. Because their impacts are so widely felt, and the number, location and form are significant at the strategic level of planning, general market opportunities for Town Centres in the annexed areas have been identified on Map B. Because of the magnitude of growth expected within the 1981 City boundaries prior to substantial population growth in most of the annexed areas, the Town Centres identified on Map 6.3 of the General Municipal Plan are anticipated to be developed as indicated with no significant adjustment. The development of previously identified Town Centres should take priority over the development of any new centres in annexed lands. Any changes in the priority of developing Town Centres within the 1981 City boundaries might not only jeopardize the originally planned facility and service-related investments, but also result in problems of finding suitable alternative uses for the originally designated site. As is currently indicated in the General Municipal Plan, any application for the development or expansion of a regional shopping centre requires an economic impact statement to assess the implications of any new commercial facility on the existing commercial and retail infrastructure. B.

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

Designation of Residential Growth Areas

Policy:

The City will expand housing opportunities by designating and servicing residential land in the annexed areas as shown on Map B.

Discussion: The lands designated in Map B as residential will provide approximately 12,400 gross hectares (30,600 gross acres) for future residential development and allow the City to accommodate a population of 1.3 to 1.5 million. According to projections, this population will not be attained until 2015 at the earliest, but additional residential land may have to be identified before

- 12 -

2001, in order to maintain an adequate rate of servicing and accommodate growth after 2015. Assuming the City's boundaries are not expanded before 1996, additional lands may have to be designated for residential development within the agricultural conservation areas indicated on Map B. Transportation and utility planning will therefore have to be based on the assumption that these areas may also be developed for urban uses including housing after the turn of the century. 2.

Staging of Residential Area Structure Plans

Policy:

The City will authorize the preparation of residential Area Structure Plans within the annexed area in stages as required by the population growth of the City. A review will be conducted annually and additional Area Structure Plans authorized where

necessary to ensure that the supply of vacant residential land in approved and authorized Area Structure Plans is sufficient to accommodate the projected suburban population increase over the following ten years. Discussion: The General Municipal Plan indicates that the City will investigate the possibility of staging development at a broad, Area

Structure Plan level to bring about servicing efficiencies for the municipality and school boards. (City of Edmonton General Municipal Plan, Volume I, Part I, pages 12-13). The issue of residential staging in the annexed area was addressed in Phase I of the Urban Growth Strategy Project by comparing alternative strategies with and without a staging policy. These studies indicated that a staged residential development program could reduce costs for tax-supported public services by about 15 to 20% over the next fifteen years. In addition, staging would promote more rapid filling in of suburban districts already under development, in the existing 1981 City as well as in the annexed area. This would help to prevent a repetition of the problems experienced with the timing and cost of services for suburban areas in the 1970's. For these reasons, a staging policy has been incorporated in the residential development strategy for the annexed area. In order to ensure a steady stream of raw land coming in to development, the staging policy provides that the available

- 13 -

supply would be monitored and reviewed every year so that it might be modified any time at the discretion of Council. Under this approach, at least one major residential Area Structure Plan would be initiated every two or three years until, by 2001, all or most of the designated residential areas in Map B would be under active planning or development. 3.

Housing Mix Guidelines

Policy:

The City will establish and annually revise guidelines for housing mix and overall density in new residential Area Structure Plans. The guidelines applicable to Area Structure Plans authorized by Phase I of the Urban Growth Strategy Project will be that: (a)

the potential housing stock should include approximately 55 to 65% single and semi-detached dwellings; 15 to 25% multiple family dwelling units with direct individual access to grade; and 15 to 25% apartment units; and

(b)

the average unit density should be between approximately 30 and 45 units per net residential hectare (12-17 units per net acre).

Discussion: The guidelines set out for the first stage of residential Area

Structure Plans reflect the anticipated breakdown of suburban dwelling unit requirements over the next twenty years, taking into account the growth of the city, the effect of inner city redevelopment and the building out of existing suburban areas. Recently initiated Area Structure Plans contain a housing unit mix of approximately 45%-55% single and semi detached units,

30-35% ground-related multiple family units, and 15-20% apartment units. The recommended guidelines for the annexed areas therefore represent a greater emphasis on single and semi-detached housing, which is considered necessary in order to reconcile the planned supply of units in the city as a whole with expected long term city wide requirements. The guidelines are intended only as general indicators for a typical Area Structure Plan, and not as absolute limits for any specific Area Structure Plan. Annual review of the guidelines will allow the planned mix in new Area Structure Plans to be adjusted in response to changes in economic and social conditions.

- 14 -

Immediate Residential Staging

Policy:

The City will authorize the preparation of Area Structure Plans for predominantly residential land uses in the areas identified in Map A and will review the need to authorize additional residential Area Structure Plans in the annexed area over the short term during the Phase II of the Urban Growth Strategy Project.

Discussion: The areas designated on Map A will provide approximately 2000-2500 gross hectares (5000-6000 gross acres) of additonal land for residential development. This will be more than sufficient to provide the ten-year margin specified in the staging policy and will provide a geographic balance of development areas in the southeast, southwest and northwest sectors to complement the major development areas recently initiated in the Lake District and Pilot Sound areas of the northeast. In order to implement the staging policy, it is estimated that Area Structure Plans will have to be initiated before 1986 for another 2800 gross hectares or 6900 gross acres of residential land beyond the Restricted Development Area. (R.D.A.) It is recommended that the identification of the most desirable areas to accommodate this additional demand be undertaken during Phase II of the Urban Growth Strategy Project, and that residential Area Structure Plans beyond the R.D.A. not be authorized until the appropriate recommendations from Phase II have been presented. This will allow for proper study of optimum staging in relation to employment, transportation facilities and water and sewer capacity and other constraints, none of which are fully documented for areas beyond the R.D.A.

AGRICULTURAL LAND CONSERVATION

Policy:

The City of Edmonton will conserve lands within its boundary, as outlined on Map B, which have unique potential for agricultural production and which are not required for urban uses for at least two decades.

Discussion: The areas meeting these requirements are outlined on Map B and cover approximately 2,430 of the 34,800 hectares (6,000 of the 86,000 acres) included in the annexed area.

- 15 -

On the basis of the supply and demand for urban land during the forty year period of the growth strategy, as indicated in this report, the land designated as agricultural conservation will not be required for urban purposes until very late in the growth strategy time horizon. The feasibility and potential for agricultural land conservation has been studied by McKinnon, Allen Associates (Western) Limited and the areas most suitable for agricultural conservation are in the northeast and southwest of the annexed area. The conservation of agricultural land protects a unique resource for future generations and will allow a final decision to be made on the future of these lands when the actual demand for their urban use arises. The farmers of the annexed area have put forward a strong case for conserving agricultural land as part of the Urban Growth Strategy. This input has received consideration and has formed part of the rationale for the long term growth strategy outlined on Map B. The economic viability of and potential for agricultural production to continue in the City will be further analysed in Phase II of the Urban Growth Strategy. The major input received from the residents of the annexed area on the issue of farmland conservation will be a focus of this additional work. D.

TRANSPORTATION AND SERVICING STRATEGY

Long Range Planning

Policy:

The City will base its long range planning of transportation

and utility systems on the long term land use pattern indicated on Map B, subject to refinements based on more detailed land use studies during Phase II of the Urban Growth Strategy Project.

Discussion: The identification of general land uses within the annexed area will permit effective planning for major transportation and utility improvements within the 1981 City limits as well as in the annexed area. This will ensure that transportation and utility services can be properly sized to accommodate growth in all of the annexed area, including potential development within the agricultural conservation areas after the turn of the century, if these areas are required for urban development.

- 16 -

First Stage Implementation

Policy:

The City will initiate detailed planning and design for the transportation and utility networks required to serve the areas designated in Map A for immediate Area Structure Plan preparation.

Discussion: The planning, design and construction of the transportation

and utility improvements required for first stage growth areas should be carried out concurrently with detailed planning, subdivision and construction activity during the early 1980's. This will ensure that services are available to consumers, and population and employment growth can be accommodated in these areas in the latter half of the decade. Water and sewer services can be provided to the designated first stage areas by the latter half of the decade, and transportation needs can readily be met by extending the existing and approved arterial

roadway network. 3.

Phase II Staging Studies

Policy:

The City will conduct the necessary technical studies and consultations with provincial and regional agencies to identify the optimum design and staging of further transportation and utility investments within the context of the Urban Growth Strategy approved by Council for the annexed lands.

Discussion: Resolution of the optimum design and staging of transportation

and utility investments over the long term is dependent on several crucial factors which have not been determined as of the completion of Phase I of the Urban Growth Strategy Project. These include the new regional water and sewer servicing authority, the timetable for construction of the planned regional wastewater treatment plant, the phasing of the ring road, and the funding and staging of the Light Rail Transit network. Many of the transportation and utility priorities which are

essentially unknown at the conclusion of Phase I of the Urban Growth Strategy Project are expected to be clarified during the time allotted for Phase II of the Study. This will provide an ideal opportunity during Phase II of the Urban Growth Strategy Project to determine the optimum staging of long term growth areas based on land use, servicing, and market demand considerations.

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SPECIAL STUDY AREAS

Policy:

The City will carry out special studies for the areas outlined on Map A to resolve issues which relate to the City as a whole and which cannot be resolved through the Area Structure Plan process.

Discussion: Special Study Areas are identified to resolve major land use issues such as the need for a comprehensive land use plan in the northeast, the ultimate size and limits of the major employment area in the south, and the possible benefits of integrating development in the west with the potential redevelopment of the Enoch Band lands. Other issues which can be addressed relate to sanitary and stormwater servicing, transportation facility locations, development of mineral resources, relocation of utility alignments prior to development, the long term use of the Restricted Development Area, the growth directions and related policies of the Edmonton Metropolitan Regional Planning Commission, the future of major airports in the Region, and the future locations of corridor oriented employment centres.

FISCAL CONSULTANT'S EVALUATION OF THE URBAN GROWTH STRATEGY The following is a review of the Urban Growth Strategy From a fiscal perspective, prepared by the fiscal impact consultant, David Amborski, based on conclusions from the fiscal analysis of alternative strategies during Phase I of the Urban Growth Strategy Project. In general, a comparison of the Urban Growth Strategy to the four alternative strategies studied in Phase I suggests that the selected strategy is fiscally sound. It compares favourably to the earlier alternatives since it incorporates a favourable assessment balance as well as a staging program. The balance of residential and non-residential assessment plays a crucial role in determining the fiscal impact of new development. The comparison of four alternative strategies during Phase I confirmed the conventional wisdom that the ratio of industrial and commercial assessment to residential assessment has a significant fiscal impact.

The assessment balance for the Urban Growth Strategy compares favourably to the earlier alternatives over the foreseeable future. Although all the land designated for industrial and commercial development in the annexed areas will not necessarily be developed over the short term, the potential and diversity of sites leads to the probability of a favourable assessment balance over the short-term and intermediate future. Over the long term, the ratio of industrial and commercial assessment to residential assessment in the annexed area could be expected to decline gradually under the Urban Growth Strategy. However, by having larger nonresidential assessment in the earlier years of development, when the revenue deficit is greatest, the impact of growth upon the property tax can be minimized. The fiscal analysis of the four alternative development strategies indicated that the staging of development is also important in determining the fiscal impact of new growth. The recommendation to include a staging policy in the Urban Growth Strategy can be strongly supported from the fiscal perspective. Staging when combined with spatial considerations generally enables maximum utilization of the existing service infrastructure, which minimizes long term servicing costs to the City and the developer. These long term cost savings may be passed on to residents in the form of smaller increases in property taxes, utility rates and housing prices. The residential staging policy in the Urban Growth Strategy is particularly important since it is residential development that requires the greatest - 19 -

expenditure for hard and soft services. Providing a staging program that emphasizes residential development within the R.D.A. in the immediate future leads to positive fiscal benefits. These benefits stem from cost minimization due to the use of existing infrastructure and minimizing the cost for transportation. Comparison of the four alternatives demonstrated clearly that the most significant municipal service cost is for transportation. Significant benefits also accrue in cost savings for schools and soft services. The early staging of industrial development is also an important positive element of the Urban Growth Strategy. As indicated by the assessment balance over the intermediate time frame, enough land is designated for industrial development to provide an assessment base to finance the cost of services for residential development. It is important that more industrial land relative to residential land be available for development during earlier years, when the greatest fiscal deficit typically exists. The location of the areas designated for industrial Area Structure Plans in the Urban Growth Strategy is also economically and fiscally advantageous. In the short term, land is designated for industrial development in a wide variety of locations, both inside and outside the R.D.A. This range of choice is essential to create a market supply which has the possibility of being developed to realize the industrial assessment potential. Allowing industrial development outside the R.D.A. in the immediate future will not require servicing expenditures as significant as those for residential development. Industrial development does not require schools or the same level of soft services as residential development. Analysis of the earlier alternatives also suggests that substantial fiscal benefits in the form of lower transportation costs can be realized by maximizing decentralized employment growth. This employment pattern will result from the industrial development pattern in the Urban Growth Strategy. Therefore, designating some land outside the R.D.A. for short term industrial development is likely to produce fiscal benefits in terms of both revenues and expenditures.

uth Ett Industrial '

URBAN GROWTH STRATEGY PHASE I IMPLEMENTATION

MILES

--Z December 1981 MN Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

approved areas to be completed/initiated as soon as possible area structure plan preparation may proceed in 1982 North Saskatchewan River Valley Study Yellowhead Corridor Land Use Study

URBA11 y GROWTH STRATEGY

Special Study Area â&#x20AC;&#x201D; Phase II (1982-83) â&#x20AC;˘

approved Town Centre (Map 6.3 G.M.P)

Ednivonton

PLANNING

STRATEGY SUMMARY 1. This strategy maximizes the utilization of existing potential as early as possible. 2. This strategy provides immediate opportunities for residential and employment choice in terms of land availability in most directions.

3. This strategy initiates a controlled approach to staging of residential areas while ensuring sufficient competition ...., through adequate levels of supply. .._.

4. This strategy ensures the fullest development and implementation of Area Structure Plans approved within the pre-1982 boundaries for which substantial municipal resources and investments have already been committed. 5. This strategy encourages redevelopment through the implementation of approved Area Redevelopment Plans.

6. This strategy advances development of those areas which pose the fewest problems or conflicts with respect to capital and operating costs for new hard and soft service infrastructure. 7. This strategy provides for the possibility of additional lands to be identified for Area Structure Plan preparation dependent upon Phase ll study results.

tAlLES o

December 1981

URBAN GROWTH STRATEGY LONG TERM GENERALIZED LAND USE Residential Major employment areas (industrial/commercial) Institutional concentration Agricultural conservation

G STRATEGY

Potential opportunity â&#x20AC;&#x201D; Regional Activity Centre

STRATEGY SUMMARY

3. This strategy maximizes the potential for industrial/commercial growth and employment opportunities.

1. The City of Edmonton's long term

4. This strategy conserves prime

requirements for accommodating 1.5

agricultural land and environmentally

million people by 2021 can be met by this strategy of generalized future land use.

sensitive areas while, at the same time accommodating the City's population and employment requirements to 2021.

2. This strategy maintains City Council's approved General Municipal Plan policies of compact urban form for future growth.

5. This strategy is subject to change based upon the more detailed results of the studies to be carried out in Phase II of the Urban Growth Strategy project.

'3L2W Restricted Development Area ------ Old City Boundary New City Boundary

Land uses are shown for annexed area only Residential areas include some commercial and institutional uses. Agricultural conservation areas may ultimately be required for eventuaV uses contingent upon long term fu. .e demand.

0 MOÂ°

1 1

- ACKGROUnID fIRORMATIO

1. INTRODUCTION The Urban Growth Strategy takes account of the future population and employment levels, capabilities of lands and services, the City's fiscal balance, public concerns and existing growth policies which are critical variables of an Urban Growth Strategy. The combination of these basic factors and others, generates many alternatives for the physical form of the City which will determine the City's ability to serve the needs of its citizens. Sections 2 to 6 in this report contain the background information which led to the development of the Urban Growth Strategy. Section 2 provides a brief outline of the growth policies of the Region and the City as contained in the Regional Plan and the General Municipal Plan respectively. Section 3 addresses the issues of future growth, its form and its economic, social and land use implications in the context of projected trends for the

City and Region as a whole. Section 4 broadly deals with the issues identified by a spectrum of people, organizations and levels of government. These issues cover the extent and nature of desired planning controls, location of town centres and the role of energy conservation. Strong variances in preferences are evident from the conservation of agricultural land advocated by farmers, to a form of planning guided by the marketplace as desired by the development industry. Section 5 discusses and tests four alternative growth Scenarios based upon many ideas and opinions from the development industry, community and professional groups and citizens. The alternatives developed and analyzed represent distinct themes and interests of the development industry, planners and of the City's objectives of maintaining a sound fiscal balance and achieving public transportation efficiency. Finally, Section 6 is intended to provide information on existing land uses, zoning and potential constraints and opportunities provided by mineral resources, agricultural lands, sanitary and storm water systems.

2. POLICY REVIEW 2.1

THE ROLE OF EDMONTON IN THE REGION

The City of Edmonton has experienced dramatic growth during the past three decades as a result of fundamental change in the Region's economy. During the 1950's, the economy of the Edmonton Region was primarily agricultural-based, and was dominated, as it is now, by the City of Edmonton, which provided government and educational services to the balance of the Province and Region. Since that time, the economy of the Region has been strengthened and diversified as a result of industrial activity generated by the development of oil and natural gas and other resources. The City of Edmonton and its Sub-Region consists of parts of the present Counties of Parkland and Leduc, Strathcona County and the Municipal District of Sturgeon. As the largest centre in the Region, Edmonton offers the widest range of services and provides the strongest source of identity in the area. It is the transportation hub and provides a social and cultural focus for the Region. In view of its role in the Region, it is foreseen that the majority of regional growth will be experienced within the City itself. Given present growth pressures, the City is seeking a co-ordinated regional land use strategy which will ensure that Edmonton will not be forced into financial or administrative difficulties because of its role. The City of Edmonton hopes to provide, through the development of its Urban Growth Strategy, a leadership role in planning within the Region. The concern of maintaining the role of the City of Edmonton as a dominant

community in the Metropolitan Region has been recognized by the Provincial Government. Currently about 75% of the populaton of the Sub-Region reside in the City and it will be an objective of the Provincial Government to maintain the City as the centre of the regional growth pattern in future years,

with approximately similar importance in terms of population distribution. Other commmunities within the Region, including St. Albert and Sherwood Park, will accommodate the remaining 25% of the region's population. 2.2.

REGIONAL GROWTH STRATEGY

The Provincial decision on annexation can be interpreted as a move towards the gradual concentration of urban development within the Edmonton Region, in order to further the government's aim of growth management and agri-

- 22 -

cultural land preservation. The Draft Edmonton Regional Plan differs from this aim, advocating instead the moderate decentralization of population within the Region. The Province wishes to see the City of Edmonton retain approximately 70-75% of the Region's population while the Draft Regional Plan suggests that the City should only accommodate less than a half of the Region's increase to 2001, leaving the City with only 63% of Region's population by 2001. The City's Urban Growth Strategy could act as a major input to the new Edmonton Metropolitan Regional Planning Commission in order that a regional plan, more consistent with the new Provincial guidelines and the metropolitan area's needs, might be prepared and adopted. 2.3 MUNICIPAL GROWTH STRATEGY The concept of a Growth Strategy, as put forward in the 1980 General Municipal Plan is basically the grouping and linking of fundamental policies which must be implemented to respond to the issues of growth management in the Edmonton area. All other policies of the General Municipal Plan are critically linked to these key policies or the growth strategy, as the necessary support mechanisms or as incentives to create an environment conducive to the realization of the Strategy. As a result of the analysis and evaluation of growth issues and management alternatives undertaken during the preparation of the General Municipal Plan, an 18 point growth strategy was developed. The points of the strategy were group into five areas: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Accommodation of Growth; Pattern of Development; Transportation System; Environmental Quality; and Detailed Planning.

The organization of the strategy which was intended to reflect that the elements of the growth strategy are closely linked and interdependent. Amending any one component has an impact on several of the other components. Thus the strategy has been reviewed in as comprehensive a fashion as possible during Phase I of the Urban Growth Strategy Study, with the ultimate result being that some aspects of the review will have to be completed during the second phase of the project. The 1980 General Municipal Plan Growth Strategy starts with policies that concern the accommodation of growth: They constitute the fundamental - 23 -

premise of the Plan. Next, it deals with the desired pattern of development and the transportation system aspects which that pattern supports. The strategy also outlines policies which pertain to the quality of the environment and how they may modify or qualify growth. Finally, the Growth Strategy identifies detailed planning processes which will condition the implementation of the General Municipal Plan in general and link it more directly with other elements of land use planning. Briefly summarized, the 18 point growth strategy from the 1980 General Municipal Plan is as follows: A. Accommodation of Growth 1.

Accommodating whatever growth is attracted to the City.

Annexation of land to ensure an adequate supply of residential and industrial land over the long term.

Reorganization of local government at the metropolitan scale to improve financial, political and administrative responsiveness and efficiency.

Promotion of growth in industries contributing to stability and diversity of the economic base.

B. Pattern of Development 5.

Increasing compactness of residential development.

Priority upon existing developed areas for:

(a)

accommodating growth in order to better utilize existing services and infrastructure; and,

(b)

improving services where necessary.

A viable, strong downtown to be retained and developed.

Office decentralization to Town Centres, L.R.T. stations and other

selected locations along major transportation routes. 9.

Staging considerations at a broad level in new growth areas, to bring about servicing efficiencies for the municipality and school boards.

- 24 -

10. Promotion of energy efficient design and opportunities for energy conservation in land use and transportation planning, municipal servicing and building design.

C. Transportation System 11. A strong emphasis on the public transit component of the Transportation System. 12. A downtown parking policy to encourage and support a viable Downtown.

D. Environmental Quality 13. Priority upon improving the quality of the environment, especially necessary given the increased compactness of development, through an emphasis on urban design, historic preservation, parks development and a social development strategy. 14. Natural environment sensitivity to be given increased emphasis in planning for new growth areas.

Detailed Planning

15. A District Planning System to link the General Municipal Plan with the Land Use Bylaw. 16. Formal citizen participation structure to advise on the preparation of District Plans and to monitor development trends. 17. A Development Industry Liaison Committee to work with the City in implementing the General Municipal Plan strategy. 18. Increased flexibility for the development industry and opportunities for competition in the land development process through flexible land use control and consideration given to non-contiguous development. For a more indepth review of the underlying objectives and rationale for each of the components of the growth strategy, reference should be made to the Preamble of Volume I, Bylaw 6000, Edmonton General Municipal Plan.

DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR FUTURE GROWTH

3.1 POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH The Alberta economy has performed exceedingly well in early 1981 despite the energy conflict and it is expected to continue its good performance. Accelerated economic growth is anticipated in natural resource related activity (oil, gas, coal and wood) as well as agriculture and manufacturing. Construction is expected to remain strong based on Alberta's continued economic strength. Inflation in Alberta is expected to remain at the 13.0 to 10.9 percent level at least between 1982 and 1987. The impact of increased oil production and the tar sands projects could lead to even higher levels. At the same time, high interest rates, a symptom of high inflation and a contributor to the inflationary spiral, are expected to continue. The recent energy agreement between the Alberta and Federal governments has reduced much of the uncertainty regarding the future price of energy and the distribution of revenues over the next 5 years. However, some uncertainty remains regarding the level of economic activity that can be expected now that the agreement has been signed. Some Edmonton firms have begun preparing for increased activity expected to occur in the spring of 1982. The impacts of increased economic activity are expected in nonresidential construction, manufacturing and financial sectors of the local economy. Demand for office space is expected to increase at an annual rate of 6.6% from 1982 to 1990. Supply is expected to increase annually at a 14.3 percent average. Manufacturing, petrochemical, petroleum and coal related production is expected to increase with the rapid development of new trading areas (particularly with resumption of the delayed mega-projects). Banking is expected to lead in the financial sector based on investments required in

residential construction and major resource projects. The amount and rate of development in the annexed areas will be determined partly by the rate of economic expansion and population growth in the greater Edmonton region. The resource base of northern Alberta is expected to generate major development projects in the energy sector and sustain continued growth in the Edmonton area over the foreseeable future. Projected numbers of people, households and jobs in the Metropolitan Edmonton Region are presented in Table 3-1. The population, household and employment projections shown in Table 3-1 indicate that Edmonton and its region are likely to be faced with major growth pressures during the corning years. The metropolitan population is

- 26 -

expected to increase by 42% by 1991, while the numbers of households and jobs are projected to increase more rapidly (57% and 54% respectively) over the same period. This implies that residential, industrial and commercial development will expand faster than the rate of population growth, and that roughly a third of the homes, shops and factories that will exist in the region in 1991 have yet to be built. This presents a challenge and an opportunity to creatively plan a significant portion of the future living environment over a relatively short period of time. The long term implications of projected growth rates are also very significant. If these growth rates hold for forty years as currently expected, there will be over two million people and one million jobs in the region by the year 2021. Based on the policies stated in the provincial annexation decision, this would imply a population of approximately 1.5 million in the City of Edmonton proper, or about three times the existing population. The annexed areas will, of necessity, accommodate the majority of this growth. Thus, the planning decisions made over the coming years, regarding the development

of the annexed areas, will determine how successfully Edmonton accomplishes the transition from a medium- sized city to a major metropolitan centre. These growth projections are based primarily on the population projections for Census Divisions of Alberta published by the Alberta Bureau of Statistics (A.B.S.) in 1979, which are the latest available long range projections. From the nine scenarios developed by A.B.S., Series 5 was selected as the basis for the Urban Growth Strategy Project. The Series 5 projection is based on the assumption that new resource development in Alberta will continue indefinitely, and will sustain a continuation of the growth rates experienced in the late 1970's and expected for the 1980's. Specifically, the Series 5 projection assumes that Alberta's economic boom will attract increased numbers of in-migrants, with net annual in-migration rising from 38,500 in 1978 to 47,300 in 1988 and continuing at an annual average of 47,300 during 1989-2006. In terms of the natural increase components of population growth, the Series 5 projection assumes that fertility rates, which are currently near replacement levels, and mortality rates will show only marginal changes in the future. With respect to the geographic distribution of Alberta's population, Series 5 indicates that the major metropolitan centres of Edmonton and Calgary will continue to grow faster than the provincial average. This appears to reflect an implicit assumption that Provincial decentralization policies may moderate, but will not reverse, the trend of increasing urbanization. The validity of the A.B.S. Series 5 projection for planning purposes has been assessed by comparisons with actual experience and recent projections from other sources. The actual population of the metropolitan Edmonton region in 1981 was approximately 8600 (or 1.2%) below the A.B.S. Series 5 projection

- 27 -

which was based on 1976 data. This is attributed to the delays in resource development which resulted from the federal-provincial dispute over energy pricing. With the resolution of this dispute, it is assumed that the deferred projects will be reactivated and growth will accelerrate to make up for lost time. Thus, it is expected that, by 1986, the population of the region will be close to the levels indicated by the A.B.S. Series 5 projection. In order to achieve this growth, it is estimated that the regional economy and employment base would have to expand at an average rate of approxirnatley 5.2% per year over the next five years. This corresponds with recently compiled forecasts of real economic growth in Alberta of 5% to 6% during 1982 and 1983. Comparisons over the long term are more difficult to find. However, the recently released "Reassessment of the Elements of an Economic Strategy for the Province of Alberta", prepared for the Provincial Cabinet by Foster Research and SRI International, projects that Alberta will attract net annual in-migration of between 24,000 and 53,000 during 1982-1995, with all years except one being below the 47,300 annual average assumed in the A.B.S. Series 5 projection. Based on these indications, it is considered that the regional growth forecasts prepared on the basis of the A.B.S. Series 5 population projection provide a realistic representation of a strong growth scenario for the local economy, over the short and long term. Projected population levels for the City of Edmonton proper are indicated in Table 3-2. The projections reflect the strong growth expected to occur in the region, and the Provincial Cabinet's clearly stated policy that the City proper should continue to accommodate approximately three-quarters of the region's population. This guideline requires that the growth rate of the City keep pace with that of the region. In recent years, however, the City has grown more slowly than the region as a whole. Therefore, implementation of the Provincial directive would result in a new surge of population growth

in Edmonton, not anticipated in other recent projections, (see Table 3-2). There may be some question as to whether the City's growth rate can, in fact, catch up to the regional average by 1986. However, this is considered to be a sound assumption for long range land use planning purposes, as it minimizes the risk of underestimating land requirements and development needs over the short and long term. The growth projections shown in Tables 3-1 and 3-2 form the basis for estimating future housing needs and land use demands in Edmonton generally and in the annexed areas specifically. They reflect the strong growth expected in the local economy, with the City as the focal point of this regional growth. As such, these projections minimize the risk of underestimating future development needs in the City and provide a good basis for planning in the annexed areas. - 28 -

3.2 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT The amount, rate, and type of residential development which will have to take place in the annexed area in order to meet the housing needs of Edmontonians will depend upon the complex interaction of many factors, including: a)

the influence of the Region's overall growth rate upon total dwelling unit requirements;

the effect of demographic changes, such as the aging of the population and the decline in family and household size, upon the number and mixture of dwelling units required;

the proportion of regional housing needs met by the satellite communities surrounding Edmonton;

the rate at which dwelling units are put on the market in the approved suburban residential plan areas of Edmonton;

changes in the existing housing stock due to demolition and redevelopment in inner city areas;

the influence of continuing energy price increases upon consumers' pceferences regarding location and type of dwelling;

the potential effect on housing choices if interest rates stabilize at the current high levels; and

the evolution of consumer tastes and preferences in response to changing lifestyles, emerging activity patterns, and new marketing strategies adopted by housing producers.

Since these factors are constantly changing, it would be unrealistic to attempt a detailed and precise forecast of future housing construction in terms of number of units, rates of ronstruction and absorption, and breakdowns by specific dwelling type, unit size, and form of tenure. In practice, the amount and specific mixture of housing supplied and absorbed is determined in the marketplace by the forces of supply and demand. However, a general analysis of long range housing needs in Edmonton and its surrounding region is useful in estimating the overall rate of residential development and the most likely mixture of general dwelling types in the annexed area.

- 29 -

Total future dwelling unit requirements for the Metropolitan Edmonton Region will be defined by the number of households in the region. Based on projected change in total population and average household size, the number of households in the region is expected to increase by 71,600 during 1981-86; 73,300 during 1986-91; 65,200 during 1991-96; and 72,000 during 1996-2001. The total increase to the turn of the century is projected to be approximately 282,100 households or 111%. This indicates that the region's housing stock must be at least doubled during the next 20 years. In addition to growing substantially, the region's housing stock is expected to change significantly in character over the next twenty years. This is due primarily to the fundamental demographic changes still taking place in society. With the gradual aging of the population and the decreasing number of children per family, it is expected that families with children will constitute a decreasing percentage of the total households in the region. This is illustrated by the following Statistics Canada projection of non-family households as a percentage of total Alberta households: 23.2% 25.9% 27.5% 28.7% 28.5% 28.6%

1976 (actual) 1981 (projected) 1986 1991 1996 2001

This trend will also affect the Edmonton area, and therefore it is expected that, in the future, a larger percentage of the region's total housing stock will consist of apartments and attached dwelling units. In addition, it is considered reasonable to assume that rowhousing will continue to increase in popularity among households seeking a ground-related dwelling, as the skill of builders in designing and marketing successful, innovative housing projects

improves. For the purposes of estimating likely housing trends in the annexed area, it is projected that:

the ratio of apartments to total dwelling units will increase as rapidly as the ratio of non-family households to total households, rising from an estimated 27.4% in 1981 to 30.2% in 2001; and

the ratio of ground-oriented multiple-family units to total ground-oriented units will rise gradually from an estimated 16% in 1981 to 20% in 2001.

Projected percentage breakdowns of future housing stock and construction based on these assumptions are shown in Table 3-3. These breakdowns indicate that the anticipated gradual changes in the composition of the regional housing

- 30 -

stock would cause more noticeable fluctuations in the breakdown of new housing construction. It should be noted that this projection assumes only minor changes in consumer preferences. If energy prices rose more rapidly in real terms or interest rates stabilized at present high levels, transportation costs and mortage payments would put more strain on the average household's budget, and the shift in demand towards smaller dwellings and higher density would probably be more pronounced than indicated in Table 3-3. The mixture of dwelling units required within the City of Edmonton will differ from the mixture projected for the region as a whole. Because of its role as the centre of the region, Edmonton has a greater than average proportion of apartments and multiple family dwellings and a relatively lower proportion of single family dwellings. In the past, the City's share of multiple family residential development has been fairly constant. However, the City's share of single and semi-detached housing sales has fluctuated considerably as a result of changes in the price differential between the City and surrounding communities, and this has been the primary cause of significant variations

in the City's share of regional population growth. Clearly, the amount and price of single and semi-detached housing provided within the City will be a key factor in determining the balance of population growth between Edmonton and the rest of the region. In light of the Cabinet decision on annexation, it is considered reasonable to assume that enough competitively priced single and semi-detached houses will be provided within the City limits to enable Edmonton to accommodate 75% of the region's future population. This will require that about 60-65% of the single and semi-detached houses provided in the region be developed within the City. Based on these assumptions, projected dwelling unit requirements for the City of Edmonton, together with those of the region are summarized in Table 3-4. The projected percentage breakdown of future residential development within the City is shown in Table 3-5, and indicates the relatively greater volume of multiple family residential development in the City. The basic character of housing demand in the annexed area will be significantly different from city-wide demand, because of the role that other areas of the City will play in meeting housing needs. Redevelopment in inner city areas will provide a significant number of additional dwelling units. The majority of these will be apartment units, although small numbers of ground-oriented units may be added in the stacked housing or infill development. Redevelopment will also involve some demolition of existing stock, generally single detached housing. In the absence of other factors, these trends would imply that the housing mix in suburban areas should include a larger percentage of single and semi-detached units, and a

- 31 -

lower percentage of apartment units than the average housing mix for the City as a whole. Suburban areas currently being developed within the 1981 City limits have significant remaining capacity to provide new housing units. However, the capacity for apartment and row house units is much greater, in relation to present and projected demand, than the capacity for single and semi-detached units. Therefore, it is projected that the existing suburban plan areas will continue to provide multiple-family units after the supply of lots for single family homes in these areas has been exhausted. This will tend to reduce the demand for rowhouse and apartment units in the annexed area. Anticipated development trends in the inner city and existing suburban residential plan areas clearly suggest that the mix of dwelling units in the annexed area should include a larger percentage of single and semi-detached housing, and a smaller proportion of multiple family housing than the average citywide mix. However, it is difficult to estimate how much the housing mix in annexed area will differ from the average, because there is considerable uncertainty about the exact numbers of different types of units which can be provided in other parts of the City. Several inner city Area Redevelopment Plans have recently been approved or proposed. A comparison between existing and permitted densities would provide one indication of the potential number of dwelling units. However, it is difficult to predict how quickly the market will build to the permitted densities, and it is likely that existing zoning will be revised and permitted densities increased again before residential plans in the annexed area have been fully developed. In existing suburban residential areas, the planned unit mix is being amended as multiple-family housing sites are rezoned for single and semi - detached

units in an effort to promote earlier development. Despite the difficulty of projecting the exact nature of housing demand in the annexed area, a general estimate of the future housing mix is important so that new neighbourhoods can be designed for a mixture of units similar to the pattern of demand which is most likely to be attracted to the annexation area. Based upon a review of available information on vacant suburban land, and an examination of potential inner city redevelopment scenarios, it is projected that the most likely breakdown of demand for dwelling units in the annexed area will be approximately 55 - 65% single and semi-detached houses, 15-25% ground-oriented multiple family units and 15 - 25% apartment units.

- 32 -

The provision of supply in the annexed area in these proportions is expected to result in relatively even absorption rates for land designated for the three housing types, and facilitate absorption of the remaining vacant multiple family housing sites in the existing plan areas before 2001. The dwelling mix projected for residential development in the annexed area would result in an average density of approximately 34.9 - 36.2 units per net residential hectare (14.1 - 14.7 units per net residential acre) if conventional building forms were used. If greater use were made of planned lot development, stacked rowhousing, and high-rise apartments, the same basic dwelling mix could be provided at average densities of 39.1 - 44.1 units per net residential hectare (15.8 - 17.8 units per net residential acre). In light of these ranges an average residential density of 35-45 units per net residential hectare (14-18 units per net residential acre) is considered to be a reasonable projection for the annexed areas.

The average population density of residential districts in the annexed area will depend not only on the dwelling mix, but also on the number of people per household, and the amount of land taken up by reserves and non-residential uses. At estimated 1981 household sizes, the projected housing mix would result in a potential population density of approximately 51.0 - 67.5 people per gross hectare (20.6 - 27.3 people per gross acre), assuming that 45-50% of the land in a typical residential plan area is taken up by reserves and non-residential uses. With the expected general decline in household sizes, this range would drop to 45.9 - 60.5 people per gross hectare (18.6 - 24.5 people per gross acre) by the turn of the century. The wide range of potential densities emphasizes the need to plan neighbourhood facilities and services with a range of capacities. Specific forecasts of annual dwelling unit construction and population growth in the annexed area would be difficult to prepare because of the large number of uncertainties involved. Moreover, the setting of specific development targets is not considered to be particularly desirable, as there should be scope for competition in the housing market, including approved plan areas in the 1981 City limits and potential new districts in the annexed area. It is important that land be designated for residential development in advance of actual population growth, in order to provide adequate time for design and construction and prevent upward pressure on housing process due to a restricted land supply. Given the five to ten-year lag between authorization of an Area Structure Plan and completion of the first dwelling units in an area, it would be desirable to ensure that the supply of vacant land in designated residential areas be sufficient to accommodate projected population growth for the next ten years.

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In order to maintain a ten-year supply of suburban residential land, increasing amounts of land will clearly have to be designated for residential development in the annexed area as the remaining capacity of existing plan areas decrease. As of mid-1981, existing suburban residential plan areas had a population of 138,400, compared to a planned ultimate population of 404,400. This indicates a theoretical capacity to accommodate an additional 266,000 people in the 1981 City limits, which is greater than the total projected growth of the City to 1991. However, the effective capacity of the existing land supply is lower than these figures would indicate, for two reasons. First, the planned population of existing suburban areas is unlikely to be achieved because of the decrease in average household size and the rezoning of multiple family parcels for single and semi-detached housing. The ultimate population of these areas may be 10-25% lower than originally planned. Secondly, the population increase in suburban areas may be expected to exceed the growth of the City as a whole, due to population decreases in thening Department. idential development in the annexed area as the remaining capacity of existing plan areas decrease. As of mid-1981, existing suburban residential plan areas had a population of 138,400, compared to a planned ulti. In the annexation lands, an estimated 6660 gross acres of land have been designated industrial by the Counties of Strathcona and Parkland and are currently vacant. This gives the City an estimated supply of 14,393 gross acres of industrial land as of January 1, 1982. Th, and that suburban population growth may be up to 20% higher than total City growth, the cumulative gross area of land which would have to be designated for residential development in annexed area to maintain a ten year supply is shown in Table 3-6. In summary, the analysis of population and housing trends in the Edmonton area suggests that residential development in the annexed area over the

next twenty years is likely to consume a total land area approximately equal to 53 sections. The mixture of units developed on this land is expected to be

approximately 55-65% single and semi-detached housing, 15-25% groundoriented multiple-family housing and 15-25% apartment housing. Depending on the particular building forms employed, the average density of this dwelling mix is expected to be approximately 35-45 units per net residential hectare (14-18 units per net residential acre). Taking into account the remaining capacity in approved residential area plans, there appears to be an immediate need to designate approximately 7.7 sections (4,940 gross acres) of land for residential development, in order to create sufficient approved capacity to accommodate at least ten years' population growth.

- 34 -

3.3 INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT A total supply of vacant industrial land for the area currently within the 1981 City boundary is estimated at 7733 gross acres. This figure is based on the 1980 Status of Industrial Land Report for Edmonton, prepared by the Planning Department. Some adjustments were made to the base data to account for land absorbed during 1981 and the additional land anticipated to be designated industrial in the Pilot Sound and West Jasper Place Area Structure Plans. In the annexation lands, an estimated 6660 gross acres of land have been designated industrial by the Counties of Strathcona and Parkland and are currently vacant. This gives the City an estimated supply of 14,393 gross acres of industrial land as of January 1, 1982. Thsignated for ree demand for industrial land was estimated based on historical trends in both the 1981 City and the newly annexed areas. It is presented below as an aggregate function, set out in 5 year increments to 2001. Demand increases are at an average annual rate of 4.6 percent.

Total Demand for Industrial Land (Gross Acres) 1982-1986 1987-1991 1992-1996 1997-2001 Source:

2545 3065 3695 4240

Technical Report on Economic Development, Edmonton 1982-2001, City of Edmonton, Planning Department, November 1981.

It should be noted that the demand for industrial land identified above is based on historical demand for primarily light and medium industrial purposes. The demand function also includes demand for an uncertain amount of commercial land uses. The City, judging by recent performance in the past 5 years, does not appear to be an attractive location for heavy industry. To account for the problems associated with availability of industrial land, a convention adopted by several market analysts has been used. The total or "theoretical" supply of vacant land has been factored by .5 to identify a "practical" supply of land to be used for analytical purposes in estimating

- 35 -

the available supply of industrial land in any given time period. This identifies an actual market supply of industrial land for analytical purposes that reflects owner imposed constraints on availability due to speculation, future expansion and other reasons. In cOrnparing the amount of currently available industrial land it is concluded that there should be sufficient industrial land for industrial growth until the 1997-2001 period (see Table 3-7). During that period, owner, servicing or environmental-related constraints could reduce the market's ability to adequately meet demand. The amount by which practical demand outstrips supply during that period is 1696 gross acres. This means that at least an additional 3400 gross acres (theoretical) would have to be designated industrial by the year 1997 to meet anticipated demand.

111

TABLE 3-1

PROJECTED GROWTH METROPOLITAN EDMONTON REGION

Population

Household Size

Number of Households

Employment Ratio

1981

702,300

2.77

253,500

0.46

325,200

1986

851,800

2.62

325,100

0.49

418,800

1991

1,000,100

2.51

398,400

0.50

501,200

1996

1,154,300

2.49

463,600

0.50

578,400

2001

1,312,100

2.45

535,600

0.51

657,200

2011

1,644,300

2.45

671,100

0.50

824,000

2021

2,034,100

2.45

830,200

0.50

1,019,300

Employment

Notes

Metropolitan Edmonton Region is defined as the area within the jurisdiction of the Edmonton Metropolitan Regional Planning Commission.

Household Size is defined as the average number of persons per occupied dwellings.

Number of Households is assumed to be synonymous with the number of occupied dwellings.

Employment Ratio is calculated as the proportion of the population which is of working age times the proportion of the working age population which is in the labour force times the proportion of the labour force which is employed.

Employment is defined as the total number of jobs in the region, and is assumed to equal the number of employed persons.

1981 figures are the best available estimates of actual values.

Projected future population is based on Alberta Bureau of Statistics projections by age group for Census Divisions in Alberta.

Projected household size is based on Statistics Canada projections for Canada and the Provinces.

Projected employment is based on the assumption of increasing participation rates to 1991.

10.

Projections beyond 2001. extrapolated assuming constant annual percentage growth rate.

- 37 -

TABLE 3-2 PROJECTED POPULATION CITY OF EDMONTON

Urban Growth Strategy Project

General Municipal Plan (1980)

Local Policy Plan (1982-86)

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

530,400(e) 550,500 571,400 593,100 615,600 638,900

497,600 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 542,700

521,531 538,191 556,382 576,022 597,220 620,094

1991

750,100

598,000

N.A

1996

865,700

654,600

N. A

2001

983,300

711,000

N.A

2011

1,233,200

N.A.

2021

1,525,600

N.A.

Notes

(e) denotes estimated actual population including annexed areas.

N.A. indicates data not available.

Urban Growth Strategy Project projections for 1986-2021 based on 75% of the regional population projection derived from the Alberta Bureau of Statistics projections for Census Divisions (Series 5). Projections for 1982-85 interpolated assuming constant compounded annual growth rate.

Local Policy Plan projections do not include existing population in the annexed area.

TABLE 3-3

PROJECTED PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN OF HOUSING STOCK AND CONSTRUCTION BY DWELLING TYPE

METRO EDMONTON REGION 1981 - 2001

Housing Stock

Single and Semi-Detached

Ground Oriented Multi-Family

Dwellings

Apartments

Total

1981 (estimated)

61.0

11.6

27.4

100.0

1986

58.8

12.1

29.1

100.0

1991

57.1

12.5

30.4

100.0

1996

56.6

13.3

30.1

100.0

2001

55.8

14.0

30.2

100.0

2011

55.8

14.0

30.2

100.0

2021

55.8

14.0

30.2

100.0

1981- 1986

51.1

13.8

35.1

100.0

1986- 1991

49.5

14.3

36.2

100.0

1991- 1996

53.5

18.3

28.2

100.0

1996 - 2001

50.7

18.5

30.8

100.0

2001 - 2011

55.8

13.9

30.3

100.0

2011 -2021

55.8

14.0

30.2

100.0

Increases

Notes:

Refer to text for assumptions

TABLE 3-4

PROJECTED DWELLING UNIT REQUIREMENTS 1981-2021 CITY OF EDMONTON AND METROPOLITAN EDMONTON REGION

Single and Semi Detached

GroundOriented Multi-Family

Walk-up and High-Rise

Dwellings

Apartments

Total

1981-1986

City Region

21,600 36,600

8,900 9,900

24,900 25,100

55,400 71,600

1986-1991

City Region

22,300 36,300

9,400 10,500

26,100 26,500

57,800 73,300

1991-1996

City Region

22,200 34,900

10,700 11,900

18,300 18,400

51,200 65,200

.1996-2001

City Region

22,500 36,500

12,000 13,300

22,000 22,200

56,500 72,000

2001-2006

City Region

24,300 37,100

8,400 9,300

20,000 20,200

52,700 66,600

2006-2011

City Region

24,800 38,500

8,600 9,600

20,600 20,800

54,000 68,900

2011-2016

City Region

27,200 42,100

9,600 10,600

22,400 22,700

59,200 75,400

2016-2021

City Region

30,200 46,700

10,500 11,700

25,100 25,300

65,800 83,700

Notes

Based on population projections shown in Tables 3.1 and 3.2.

Aggregate regional dwelling unit requirements are based on the projected decrease â&#x20AC;˘ in average household size.

Breakdown of regional requirements by dwelling type assumes that apartments and multiple-family dwellings increase slightly as a proportion of total regional housing stock. See text for details.

The City of Edmonton is assumed to have 99% Of the regional stock of apartment units, 90% of the regional stock of ground-oriented multiple family units, and a percentage of single and semi-detached housing sufficient to enable the City to accommodate 75% of the Region's population.

- 40 -

TABLE 3-5 PROJECTED PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN OF HOUSING STOCK AND CONSTRUCTION BY DWELLING TYPE

CITY OF EDMONTON 1981 - 2021

Housing Stock 1981 (est.) 1986 1991 1996 2001 2011 2021

Single and Semi-Detached Dwellings

Ground Oriented Multi-Family Apartments Dwellings

Total

52.2 49.4 47.4 46.8 45.9 45.9 45.9

13.3 13.9 14.3 15.3 16.1 16.0 16.0

34.5 36.8 38.3 37.9 38.1 38.1 38.1

100 100 100 100 100 100 100

38.4 39.2 43.4 39.8 46.0 45.9

15.8 16.5 20.9 21.2 15.9 16.1

45.8 44.3 35.7 38.9 38.1 38.0

100 100 100 100 100 100

Increases

1981-1986 1986-1991 1991-1996 1996-2001 2001-2011 2011-2021

Notes:

Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.

Refer to text for assumptions.

TABLE 3-6 RESIDENTIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS TO MAINTAIN 10-YEAR SUPPLY

CUMULATIVE AREA IN RESIDENTIAL ASP'S

YEAR HECTARES

ACRES

1981

4940

1986

1991

1996

2001

2000

4810

7660

10650

13730

NEW AREA AUTHORIZED

HECTARES

ACRES

2810

6940

2850

7050

2990

7400

3080

7590

11880

18930

26330

33920

All areas are in gross terms including reserves and non residential uses within residential Area Structure Plans in the annexed area.

Refer to text for assumptions.

TABLE 3-7

INDUSTRIAL LAND SUPPLY AND DEMAND - CITY OF EDMONTON 1981 - 2001

TIME PERIOD

THEORETICAL PRACTICAL SUPPLY SUPPLY

INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND

PRACTICAL SURPLUS (DISPLACED THEORETICAL RESIDUAL DEMAND)

1982-1986

14393

7196

2545

4651

11848

1987-1991

11848

5924

3063

2859

8783

1991-1996

8783

4391

3695

696

5088

1997-2001

5088

2544

4240

1. Figures are in gross acres.

(1696)

848

4. DEVELOPMENT ISSUES 4.1 PUBLIC CONCERNS The Planning Department has carried out a series of public meetings and presentations in order to inform annexation residents of their respective aldermen and wards (see Map 2), outline the Urban Growth Strategy Project and to determine the major public issues that must be considered in preparing a long term land use plan for the City (see Appendix C Citizen Participation and Information Program). The major concerns identified at these meetings related to annexation implementation as it would affect assessment and taxation, education, mobile home parks, farmland, other existing uses, police and fire protection, road maintenance and the provision of sewer and water services, as well as longer term planning. The issues related to the Urban Growth Strategy, of most concern to the public, are the future of existing developments in the annexed area, the timing of future development and the land use mix that will occur once development takes place. The maintenance of the local communities, residential acreages, mobile home parks and existing agricultural operations are also very important to the present population in the annexed area (an outline of key issues appear in Appendix B). The conservation of agricultural land has emerged as a major issue, especially in the northeastern portion of the annexation area. The Northeast Edmonton Association To Please Save Our Irreplaceable Land (T.O.P.S.O.I.L.) has submitted a brief to the City concerning the conservation and preservation of prime market garden and horticultural areas. These issues have been considered in the preparation of the four alternative growth strategies particularly in Alternative B (Opportunities and Constraints). 4.2 DEVELOPMENT INDUSTRY ISSUES The development industry, through the Development Industry Liaison Committee (D.I.L.C.) identified many issues regarding the Urban Growth Strategy Project. In several cases, these issues were raised by other groups, such as the Intergovernmental Liaison Committee (refer to Section 3.3 and Appendix B). The issues that were seen as being specific to the development industry are: i)

the Planning Department's use of new data for its study when considerable amount of data and analysis have already been compiled; - 44 -

ii)

iii)

the role of the Development Industry Liaison Committee in providing input to the Urban Growth Strategy; and the possible timing and staging of development in annexed areas and potential restriction of completion in the marketplace.

A wealth of data has been made available to the Planning Department from the 1979 Annexation Studies and the various preliminary Area Structure Plans submitted by developers for the annexed lands. However, the annexation study materials required updating and review to accurately reflect the

situation under the boundary that was finally approved by the Provincial Government. In addition, the information provided in preliminary Area, Structure Plans was prepared for specific areas, while the Urban Growth Strategy is concerned with developing an overall information base for the entire annexed area. Thus, while the information from these sources was used, it was insufficient for the purposes Urban Growth Strategy Project.

The objective of the Development Industry Liaison Committee was to encourage the continuous involvement of business interests in land use planning. was established as the principal means of contact between the Planning Department and the development industry. The role of D.I.L.C. was to review information, discuss alternative land use options and recommend a preferred growth option. It should be noted that D.I.L.C. was concerned over its role in the Study, in that time restraints on the part of the Planning Department staff limited the amount of information that D.I.L.C. could review and respond to. As a result, much of their input to Phase I has been based upon verbal rather than written presentations. Despite these constraints, information provided by D.I.L.C. was used in preparing the Urban Growth Strategy and background in Another issue identified by D.I.L.0 pertained to the representatives concerns over the use of a staging program for residential development and the potential loss of competition in the market place. While the Planning Department recognizes the potential hazards of attempting to intervene in the marketplace, it has, on the other hand, had to balance this concern with providing both hard and soft services (eg. sewers, schools) in a fiscally responsible manner. 4.3 INTERGOVERNMENTAL ISSUES The annexation decision by the Province and the preparation of the Urban Growth Strategy by the City have brought to light many issues involving different Provincial and Federal Government agencies. In preparing Phase I of the Urban Growth, a number of issues have surfaced, such as: - 45 -

i) ii) iii) iv) v) vi) vii) viii) ix)

the role of the Province in supporting the City's Urban Growth Strategy; the Provincial land assembly in the northeast; the new Regional Services Commission; the future of the Restricted Development Area; the role of the new Edmonton Metropolitan Regional Planning Commission and the Draft Regional Plan; the development of the Enoch Reserve west of the City; the future of the Edmonton International and Namao airports; the future of rail relocation; and additional boundary adjustments.

It is expected that some of these issues will be resolved and incorporated into the Urban Growth Strategy during Phase II of the project. 4.4 AGRICULTURAL LAND CONSERVATION The City of Edmonton, in its annexation application to the Local Authorities Board (LAB) in 1979, indicated that "under annexation, agricultural land will better resist fragmentation" due to the City's ability to provide for rational planning. The City also stated that "farmland will be better conserved over a 20-40 year time period." Although the annexation boundary approved by the Province has been changed substantially from the City's original proposal, the issue of conserving good agricultural land in the annexed area is still relevant. Much of the annexed area is prime farmland with a number of areas having unique agricultural qualities. With increasingly costly imports of food supplies it will become even more

essential in the future for Albertans and in particular for Edmontonians to

ensure that the best agricultural lands within the region are conserved for food production for as long as possible. This will allow future generations of

Edmonton residents to make the final decision as to whether or not these lands should be used for urban purposes. In this way, the City would be acting responsibly as a trustee for future generations in preserving agricultural land. In addition, the City of Edmonton during the course of the LAB Hearings, has already made a commitment that it would act as a responsible steward of prime agricultural land within the region. The maintenance of agricultural conservation areas within the new City boundary is consistent with this commitment.

- 46 -

According to the Province, the land annexed to the City should be sufficient to accommodate 30-40 years of growth. If this growth is accommodated in an orderly, compact manner, as the General Municipal Plan outlines, high quality agricultural land can remain productive and free from urban development within the City of Edmonton for many years. However, an early start in the planning process is required to ensure compatibility with adjacent urban uses and to change the expectations of farmers, developers and rural residents. To determine the feasibility and potential for conserving high quality agricultural land within the City, the Planning Department has been assisted by the firm of McKinnon, Allen and Associates (Western) Ltd. The criteria used for determining areas suitable for agricultural conservation included the quality of the land, whether the land was buffered from other uses, the economic viability of the farms, and the relative freedom of crops and soil from airborne and waterborne pollution. In this initial study, only quality of the land, degree of buffering and existing primary land uses were

examined. The analysis was carried out using the 24 Analysis Areas outlined in Map 3. Land in the northeast and southwest of the annexation area, along the North Saskatchewan River and its tributaries, have been rated the best for agricultural conservation (see Map 7). Within an urban environment, agricultural conservation areas can be created and protected using devices such as zoning, taxation, outright purchase or development rights. The conservation of agricultural land areas within urban municipalities is an accepted practice in many areas of North America and Europe. While there may be reluctance on the part of land owners and governments when conservation measures are first introduced, over the long term these "green areas" are usually found to contribute to the planning of the municipalities. 4.5 DEVELOPMENT AROUND EXISTING USES Existing City and Regional Plans do not provide any direction with respect to future development around existing uses in the annexed area. Alternative B (Opportunities and Constraints) attempts to integrate future uses with existing uses, to the greatest degree possible. If the City wishes to maintain existing communities in the annexed area for any length of time, then the development that occurs directly around them

- 47 -

will be a significant issue that must be reviewed in Phase II of the Urban Growth Strategy Study. 4.6

ACTIVITY CENTRE LOCATIONS

Regional Activity Centres are generally associated with a point of high accessibility on the roadway and/or transit network. They may include any or all of the following land uses: stores; service establishments and offices; motels, hotels and eating and drinking establishments; recreation and entertainment facilities; schools, hospitals, colleges and other institutions; and apartments and housing for special groups such as the elderly. The principal factors influencing the development of such multi-functional centres are: a)

the market conditions (threshold population, economic growth, incomes, expenditures, competition) for the retail, office and commercial accommodation, dining and recreation uses;

the suitability of contigious land uses (to commercial uses) for residential development;

the amount, type, phasing and cost of the physical infrastructure (eg. highways, LRT, sewer and water);

Provincial policies and commitments regarding institutional investments (eq. provincial offices and hospitals);

City policies and practices in planning for and regulating development to maximize the cost-effectiveness of its investments and minimize the negative externalities of approved developments (eq. on residential areas, on highway congestion and on established commercial centres);

political pressures not to introduce regional activity centres close to planned or established activity centre locations;

commercial development in industrial areas and other scattered development which erodes the centrality and economic potential of regional activity centre; and

timing required between the development and maturing the regional activity centre.

A Regional Activity Centre report was prepared for the Urban Growth Strategy Project, on the most likely timing, size and location of potential Regional Activity Centre developments. It analyzed the impacts of these develop-

- 48 -

ments in terms of policies, programmes and the present commercial structure. The following conclusions have been drawn from the report: 1.

Sufficient potential growth in major retail floorspace and major offices space exists outside of the Downtown area during the 1981-2021 period, to provide the critical components for four (4) Regional Activity Centres in or close to the annexed areas.

The four alternative growth strategies, illustrating contrasting growth management options were found to have significantly different potential for regional activity centre development. They involve therefore, different policy, programme and cost phasing commitments. In generalized terms, the potential locations and phasings for the four Regional Activity Centres were indentified in each of the alternatives, (the locations are shown on Maps 21-24).

It is estimated that considerable potential exists for new regional shopping centres and the expansion of the present retail establishments within the 1981 City boundary. It is estimated that 3-4 new major centres could be introduced over the 1981-2021 period.

The success of Regional Activity Centres in forming the basis of Edmonton's "Town Centres" (as identified in the General Municipal Plan) is directly dependant upon policy and program decisions relating to:

the phasing and alignment of the proposed ring road;

selected crossings of the North Saskatchewan River;

The phasing and location of the LRT extensions; and

the resolution of the sanitary sewer "bottleneck" in the south-central areas of the City.

With the City's key role in development of the Mill Woods Town Centre, the City's action will have a direct bearing on the timing and development of the Regional Activity Centre for the southeastern sector of the newly annexed lands.

A serious deficiency in decision-making capabilities exists in the planning of Edmonton's retail structure and the location/phasing impacts and potentials of major shopping centres. Basic inventory data on

- 49 -

floorspace types, expenditures, consumer patterns, competitive interaction and the capacity of the market is insufficient. Neither is there an objective, rigorous and defensible process for assessing the impacts of retail development proposals and policies. 4.7 ENERGY CONSERVATION Conservation of energy has been an underlying objective of the Urban Growth Strategy. Energy consumption will vary depending upon the shape of the future City, the pattern of urban development, the transportation system and its primary orientation (e.g. auto oriented or transit oriented) as well as the density of development. Other important factors include the planning and .design of neighbourhoods, site planning, the design and construction of buildings and the design and construction of urban systems such as utilities. The Urban Growth Strategy attempts to be energy efficient through the implementation of the following objectives which formed the basis for the strategy:

ii) iii)

iv)

vi)

development of a compact urban form; controlled staging of residential development to maximize utilization of existing services and their logical expansion; encouragement of development in approved areas within the 1981 City boundaries prior to any major expansion beyond the R.D.A.; focus of employment areas along major transit corridors to provide decentralized work opportunities and improved access to more energy efficient modes of transportation; development of higher density nodes around locations with good access in both residential and employment areas to reduce average trip lengths and improve transit system efficiency; and revision of Area Structure Plan Terms of Reference to provide for more energy efficient design of Area and Neighbourhood Structure Plans.

ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES

5.1

IMPORTANCE OF ALTERNATIVES

Phase I of the Urban Growth Strategy Project identified and evaluated different planning strategies which could be used to guide growth and development in the annexed area. A conscious examination of alternative courses of action prior to the preparation of a development strategy offers several advantages. It reduces the risk that good ideas will be passed over because they are not obvious, or discarded because they are unconventional. It provides an opportunity to test traditional assumptions and examine whether land use use planning policies really can promote all of the objectives they are believed to promote. The modelling of alternative strategies gives an indication of the policy approaches which are likely to be most effective in promoting particular objectives. Finally, the presentation of alternatives provides a focus for debate. It gives people options to which they can react, crystallizes the

implications of different philosophies, and highlights the conflicting goals and priorities which must be balanced in selecting a course of action. The area annexed to Edmonton effective January 1, 1982, will have enormous significance for the development of the City over the next four decades. The decisions which will shortly be made about the use of these lands will have far-reaching implications and should be based on an awareness of all the options available. It is for this reason that the examination of alternative strategies has been a prominent component of Phase I of the Urban Growth Strategy Project. 5.2

GENERATION OF ALTERNATIVES

The four alternatives studied during Phase I represent the basic range of choices available. One option was to base the long range planning in the annexed area primarily on the preliminary Area Structure Plan proposals submitted by landowners in the area. This was termed the trend option, and used as a baseline for the formulation of the other alternatives. The trend option was seen as having potentially serious drawbacks and the remaining alternatives were drawn up essentially as responses to these perceived deficiencies. One concern with the trend option was economic. It was felt that the proposals submitted may not include enough industrial and commercial land for a healthy tax base, and that the development of housing in many areas simultaneously could result in unnecessarily high servicing costs, which would

- 51 -

ultimately be passed onto future residents in the form of higher taxes, utility rates or house prices. This prompted the formulation of a modified trend alternative, in which larger areas of land would be reserved for industrial and commercial use, and in which residential development would proceed in a staged sequence. A second set of reservations about the trend alternative was environmental in nature. There was concern that the best farmland would be taken out of production long before it was actually needed for housing or industry, that valuable mineral resources might be sterilized by premature urbanization, and that the hazards and constraints imposed by pipelines, powerlines and airplane flight paths had not been given adequate consideration. These concerns provided the impetus for an "opportunities and constraints" alternative, in which planning policies would be tailored as closely as possible to the natural characteristics of the land while accommodating the City's basic growth needs for a 20 to 40-year time horizon. The third major problem seen in the trend option was that it assumed an undesirably low density and failed to anticipate a potential future in which public transit would be the only viable mode of transit for most urban trips and attached housing units would be the only affordable accommodation for most urban families. This concern that existing planning approaches would be unable to adapt to potentially radical changes in the physical, economic, and social environment led to the formulation of a "concentrated corridor" alternative in which residential development would occur at significantly higher densities, and would be concentrated in locations where maximum advantage could be taken of proposed or potential Light Rail Transit lines. To assess and compare the long range implications of the four alternative strategies it was necessary to project what the annexation area would look like in forty years if each of the strategies were consistently applied during

that time. This was done mathematically, by estimating future population and employment in each of 24 analysis areas identified for study purposes (see Map 3). The projections also indicated projected acreage of residential

and industrial use. They covered the years 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2011, and 2021. A projection horizon of forty years was chosen because the Cabinet decision on annexation stated that the boundary approved will accommodate Edmonton's growth during that period. The projections for all four alternatives were based on a set of common assumptions which reflect the planning context as defined today. These assumptions are:

- 52 -

(a)

the areas within the existing (1981) City limits will continue to develop according to the development strategy described in the General Municipal Plan; .

(b)

Restricted Development Areas will be protected for their intended functions, and the proposed ring road will eventually be developed in the existing corridor;

(c)

the City will continue to accommodate 75% of the region's population, as stated in the Provincial Government's annexation decision;

(d)

St. Albert and Sherwood Park will develop to maximum populations of 70,000 each, as stated in the annexation decision, and these populations will be attained by 2001;

(e)

population growth in other communities will be distributed in the same proportions as projected in the draft Regional Plan;

(f)

no major new urban development areas will be established outside City's boundaries during 1982-2021; and

(g)

new commercial development in the annexed area will occur in some form of hierarchy, which will include Regional Activity Centres consisting of high density housing, office and institutional development clustered around a regional shopping centre and transit centre.

the

Within the framework of these common assumptions, projections were made regarding the distribution of population and employment growth within the City and the annexed area. The population scenario for the 1981 City area reflected the redevelopment policies of the General Municipal Plan. It was assumed that redevelopment in the inner city would provide sufficient new housing units to stem the present trend of population decline, resulting in no net change in population. Suburban residential areas were assumed to grow to their planned population capacity, but the projected date when this would happen depended on the staging policy incorporated in each alternative. In Alternative Al, it was assumed that residential development in the annexed area would be permitted and encouraged to proceed as quickly as possible. Under this policy, it was projected that the annexed area might accommodate 20% of the suburban population increase during 1981-1986 and 40% or more after 1986. Under these conditions, the population of previously approved plan areas would reach the planned capacity between 1996 and 2001.

- 53 -

In Alternatives A2, B, and C, it was assumed that the staging of new residential districts in the annexation area would be delayed so that previously approved plan areas could reach their planned population more rapidly. Under this policy, it was projected that population growth in the annexed area would not begin until the 1986-91 period, and would not exceed 20% of the total suburban increase until approved plans in the 1981 City limits had reached full capacity. Under these circumstances, the 1981 City area would reach its full potential between 1991 and 1996, and the City's population growth after 1996 would have to be accommodated entirely in the annexation area. The projected distribution of future employment increases reflected the General Municipal Plan policies of maintaining a strong Downtown and encouraging suburban employment growth. It was assumed that Downtown office space and employment would expand as projected in the Downtown Area Redevelopment Plan forecasts for 1981-1996, and would grow after 1996 at the same rate as the City. It was further assumed that employment growth in newly developing areas would focus on three types of commercial and industrial growth: (a)

employment growth contained in industrial Area Structure or Outline Plans;

(b)

employment growth related to the development of regional activity centres or employment nodes; and

(c)

employment growth within residential areas related specifically to population growth in the area (i.e.-neighbourhood and community shopping centres, local offices, etc.)

Based on the anticipated distribution of growth between the 1981 City area and the annexation area, growth projections for the annexed area were prepared reflecting the policies built in to each option. The resulting distribution of projected land uses under each option in 2021 is shown in Maps 21 to 24.

Projected residential development and population growth was based on the staging and density policies included in each alternative. Under Alternative Al, it was assumed that development would begin in all designated residential areas (other than the extreme northeast) before 1996. The projected population growth in each during each five-year interval was calculated based on its share of the vacant land available for residential development at the beginning of the period. The acreage of land developed in each year was calculated using an average population density of 20 persons per gross

- 54 -

acre, which is indicative of the planned densities in residential areas currently under construction. In this scenario, all residential areas grow gradually in competition with each other and none reach their full population capacity until after 2021. Under Alternatives A2, B, and C, residential growth was projected based on a staging policy which would allow a typical Area Structure Plan of about four square miles to reach 60% of its potential population within 5 years after the first families move in and 100% within 10 years. Thus, new residential districts are brought "on stream" at each five year interval. Based on this common approach, the staging sequence is determined by the policies in each option. In Alternative A2, the first areas staged are those within the Restricted Development Area (R.D.A.). This allows maximum use of existing and planned infrastructure and facilities in the 1981 City limits. Based on the staging rationale discussed earlier, and the same average density as in Alternative Al, these areas would reach full population capacity in about 1996. At approximately that time, new residential districts would come on stream concurrently in the northeastern, southern and western areas outside the R.D.A. In each area, development would proceed outwards from the established traffic routes. By 2021, most areas would be developed to full capacity, with potential for additional population growth only in the extreme northeast, southeast, and northwest areas. In Alternative B, residential areas are developed at an increased average density of 24 persons per gross acre in order to accommodate the same population growth without urbanizing the areas with the highest agricultural potential. These are found in the southwest, between Whitemud Creek and the North Saskatchewan River, and in the northeast, between the Manning Freeway and the North Saskatchewan River, as well as immediately east of the Namao airport. The higher density of 24 persons per gross acre can be achieved without altering the essential balance of detached houses, attached units and apartments. This is possible through the increased use of higher density building forms within each basic dNkelling type. This would imply more planned lot subdivisions in relation to conventional single family lots, more stacked townhouses in relation to ground level units, and more highrise apartments in relation to walk-up apartments. The staging of residential development in Alternative B is determined by a variety of factors. In general, development is delayed in areas which have significant agricultural capability, or mineral resources which could be extracted, or hazardous pipelines or powerlines which should be relocated prior to development. In addition, development is deferred in areas where - 55 -

further study is required to resolve remaining issues. As a result, the northeast sector is the last area staged, and the only area with remaining capacity in 2021. Alternative C models the pattern of residential development which would result at densities 50% higher than the trend options. This type of density could only be achieved by significantly altering the housing mix to include a greater percentage of apartments and rowhouses, and fewer detached units. With these higher densities, less land would be required to accommodate the projected population increase. This would allow the conservation of two areas of excellent farmland until at least 2021. As shown in Map 24, these are located in the northeast sector between the Manning Freeway and the North Saskatchewan River, and in the southwest on both sides of the North Saskatchewan River. The staging of residential growth under Alternative C follows the anticipated sequence for extension of the City's L.R.T. network. The initial thrust of new development is to the northeast, in a corridor oriented to the existing north-south Canadian National rail line. This line is considered to be the most appropriate extension for the existing northeast L.R.T. line, as it has a greater potential catchment area than the line to Fort Saskatchewan. The next major growth areas would be the southern areas closest to the Mill Woods and Kaskitayo L.R.T. lines, which are expected to be completed by

about 1990 along one of the alignments currently under consideration. Population growth in the northwestern area would begin after 2001, following the anticipated completion of the northern L.R.T. line during the 1990's. These corridors would provide sufficient capacity, at 30 persons per gross acre, to accommodate projected population growth for 40 years. As a result, the annexed areas on the west side of the city would still be rural in 2021 and would be available to accommodate additional growth after 2021 as a natural extension of the western L.R.T. line, which is currently expected to be the

last major branch of the network. The staging of growth in industrial areas was set to correspond with growth in residential areas. The alternatives thus simulated simultaneous growth in

the annexed lands as much as possible, subject to differences in demand and the time Â°factual build out. Demand for industrial growth varied between alternatives based on an initial assessment of industrial and commercial growth in employment. Under Alternative A2, a high demand was anticipated, based on an increased effort by the City to attract growth and provide a larger supply of land. The demand function was an extrapolation of full demand experienced within the 1981 City boundaries and the annexed land. Under Alternatives Al, B and C, a

- 56 -

lower demand function was used. It was characterized by an extrapolation of full demand currently experienced within the 1981 City only; it was assumed -that the type of development attracted to the annexation area in the past would tend to go to the rural municipalities under these scenarios. Regional Activity Centres were located in each of the alternatives based upon existing or planned centres as well as areas of strong market potential based on the projected population distribution under each alternative. It was found in all cases that the annexed area could support four such centres, although the draft report on alternative strategies circulated for comment indicated only two centres in each option, based on preliminary data available at the time. The regional activity centres currently planned within the City that have an influence over annexed lands are the Mill Woods and Clareview Town Centres. Some expansion was anticipated at the West Edmonton Mall as well. Other existing and planned centres in the 1981 City boundary were judged to have

limited influence on markets in the annexed area. Potential was identified for one Regional Activity Centre in the southeast sector and one in the southwest sector under all four alternatives. The northeast sector could support one centre under Alternative B and two under the other options. The western sector could support one centre under Alternative B and none under the other three scenarios. The exact locations would depend on final population densities distribution and transportation links. These potentials are based upon population growth of at least 100,000 people in the primary trading areas of each proposed Regional Activity Centre. 5.3 EVALUATION CRITERIA Following the receipt of comments on the four strategies from civic departments, the development industry, and the residents of the annexed area, the alternatives were evaluated in relation to several quantitative (i.e. -measureable) and qualitative (i.e. - non-measureable) criteria. The quantitative criteria employed were: (a)

utility costs - the costs of extending basic water, sewerage, electrical power, telephone, and natural gas services to the annexation area over the long term;

(b)

fiscal impact - the effect of development in the annexed area upon the balance of revenues and expenditures of the City of Edmonton; and

- 57 -

(c)

transportation efficiency - the quality and cost of transportation service provided to the users of both the private auto and public transit modes, particularly for the journey to work.

The less tangible qualitative criteria included in the evaluation process were: (d)

energy efficiency - the rate of consumption of non-renewable energy resources.

(e)

quality of services - the standard of public services which could be provided to residents of the annexed area, having regard to the aspects of accessibility, timeliness and choice;

(f)

scope for market competition - the degree of freedom for competition in the real estate market;

(g)

resource efficiency - the extent to which each option would encourage full utilization of the natural resources of the annexed area, including oil and gas, sand and gravel, and agricultural and recreational capability.

(h)

environmental sensitivity - the degree to which each alternative would minimize disruption of the natural ecosystem;

(i)

maintenance of existing communities - the degree to which each strategy protects existing communities in the area, particularly the mobile home parks which house a majority of the existing population;

(j)

departmental preference - the preferences expressed by civic departments, utilities and school boards in their responses to the interdepartmental circulation of the alternatives;

(k)

development industry preference - preferences expressed by development interests in written and verbal communication and by the Development Industry Liaison Committee in its discussion of the four options; and

(1)

residents' preference - the opinions and preferences of existing residents, as expressed in briefs submitted by various organizations and verbal comments made by residents who contacted the Planning Department or attended the Information Open Houses on the Urban Growth Strategy.

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1 1

5.4

UTILITY COSTS

The cost of utilities to serve new development is recovered through user charges or levies paid by the developer. In either case, the costs are passed on to residents either in utility rates or in house prices. With utilities to serve the annexed area over the next forty years estimated to cost $4 billion in 1981 dollars, any significant differences between the alternatives could be of considerable importance. A comparison of the capital costs for utilities under each alternative is presented in Table 5-1. This comparison indicates that Alternatives B and C would require approximately 10% less utility infrastructure over a forty year period than either of the trend options. Alternative B also involves the lowest amount of investment over the next ten years. Alternative C involves higher costs than B over the firsions and verbal comments made by residents who contacted the Planning Dept ten years, largely due to the earlier need for water and sewer services for the northeast sector. This confirms that a

higher density of development does result in noticeably lower infrastructure requirements, but the relatively limited difference of about 10% over the long run suggests that utility costs are unlikely to be a critical determinant in the formulation of an optimal development strategy. 5.5

FISCAL IMPACT

One of the important issues which must be considered in the preparation of a development strategy for the annexation area is its fiscal impact. Any new suburban development generates both costs and revenues for the City. If the costs are excessive in relation to the revenues, the municipal treasury will be strained and it will become necessary to raise property taxes or lower the standard of services provided to residents in order to balance the budget. The fiscal impact of new development depends not only on the amount of growth, but also on the form, location, and timing of the growth. â&#x20AC;˘This is because some land use mixtures generate higher property taxes than others and some patterns of development can be serviced more efficiently than others. The Urban Growth Strategy Project has therefore included a comparison of different planning approaches in terms of fiscal impact, in order to identify the elements which are most important in balancing costs and revenues. The fiscal impact analysis was carried out as a comparative study of the costs and revenues associated with the four strategy alternatives under study. This was done to show how much the fiscal impact would vary among the four options. In Phase I of the Urban Growth Strategy Project, exact costs and revenues could not be calculated with a high degree of accuracy.

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A number of assumptions have been made to produce estimates which are essentially first approximations. The estimates, therefore, are not accurate enough to be used as forecasts of revenues and expenditures in dollar terms. However, since the biases or distortions in the estimates are similar for all four options, the study does give a useful indication of the relative or percentage difference among the four alternative strategies. The analysis focussed primarily on the municipal and school costs borne by the City and paid from property and business taxes. These include services such as transportation, police and fire protection, social services, parks and recreation, libraries, and schools. Utilities were not included because they are self-financing, recovering costs from the user through utility rates and paying a dividend to the municipal treasury. The Board of Health was omitted because it is financed entirely by the Provincial Government. Revenue estimates for each alternative, including municipal property taxes, school property taxes and business taxes, were prepared based on the projected acreage of residential and industrial land use, average assessment figures calculated from actual (1981) data, and current (1981) tax rates. To estimate capital costs, civic departments and school boards were asked to identify the facilities to adequately serve future development under each alternative. Based on the estimated costs of these facilities in 1981 dollars, debt service charges were calculated to show the annual loan payments for 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2011 and 2021. These were added to the operating costs furnished by the service agencies, or derived from the Fiscal Impact Model Handbook. The total costs were then subtracted from the property and business tax revenues to indicate the net impact of each option during the final year of each five or ten-year period. The results of the fiscal impact calculations indicate that all four alternatives would show net deficits during the forty-year period examined. This

was expected, since some of the capital debt for facilities in the annexed area would not be retired until after 2021 in any case. As indicated in Table 5-2, the greatest deficit in most years occurred under the Trend Alternative (Al), which involved dispersed low-density residential growth and a relatively small amount of industrial and commercial development. The smallest deficit in most years was under Modified Trend Alternative (A2), which featured staged low density residential development and the highest amount of industrial and commercial growth. The estimated deficit under Alternative A2 was 19-70% lower than under Al. Alternatives B and C, which involved higher residential densities and intermediate amounts of industrial and commercial development, were very similar in fiscal impact during 1981-2001, generally falling within the range defined by Alternatives Al

and A2. The deficit shown under Alternative B was 10-15% lower than under

- 60 -

the trend; for Alternative C the figure was 7-16% lower over this period. After the turn of the century, however, Alternative C is projected to perform much better than Alternative B. A comparision of estimated revenues under the four options clearly confirms the fiscal advantages of attracting commercial and industrial development. As shown in Table 5-3, Alternative A2 clearly generates significantly higher revenues than the other three options. The revenue estimates for 2001 indicate that Alternative A2 would generate 23% more revenue than Alternative Al; 98% more than Alternative B; and 26% more than Alternative C, because

Alternative A2 is based on a strong program to attract and accommodate industrial and commercial development within the City limits. This results in a more favourable balance of residential and non-residential assessment as shown in Table 5-4. The projected assessment ratios shown in Table 5-4 seem to imply that none of the options tested would produce an assessment ratio as advantageous as

the present city average, and that even more land should be designated for industrial and commercial use than under Alternative A2. However, these figures are somewhat misleading, since new growth in the annexed area will also generate increased commercial development and assessment in the

downtown. Moreover, industrial land demand projections indicate that Alternative A2 includes a more than adequate supply of land for even the strongest growth scenario. Revenue generation is also affected by the density of residential development. If the same population is housed at a higher density, residential tax revenues will be lower. This is not a major problem, however, since the costs are also lower, and the lower taxes represent a saving for residents. The debt service for capital investments in transportation constitutes a very significant proportion of the total cost of all services supported by the property tax, particularly in the initial period of development, as shown in Table 5-5. For the 1981-2001 period, this cost is lowest under Alternatives A2 and B, which are very similar in cost. Alternatives Al and C are close to each other and are consistently higher in cost than Alternatives A2 and B. The lower costs of Alternative A2 and B appear to reflect efficiencies resulting from the staging of residential development. In addition, the beneficial effect of decentralized employment is clearly illustrated by the fact that Alternative A2 consistently shows the lowest capital cost for transportation. (See Table 5-6) The higher costs of Alternative Al reflect the more extensive roadway network and larger number of transit vehicles required to serve a widely dispersed

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development pattern. The high cost under Alternative C reflects considerable investment in transit vehicles during the 1981-2001 period to build up a high level of service. However, projected capital costs for transit after the turn of the century are expected to be significantly lower under Alternative "C" than under any other option. These observations suggest that, in terms of transportation costs, the greatest savings over the 20-year term would come from the promotion of decentralized employment and the staging of residential growth as in Alternatives A2 and B, and that the greatest potential for savings over the long term lies in higher densities which would permit more efficient use of the transit system. Capital and operating costs for other municipal services in the annexed area are generally quite similar in per capita terms. As shown in Table 5-7, Alternative Al involves greater costs in the annexed area over the first fifteen years. This is because population growth in the annexed area picks up more rapidly, and residential plan areas within the 1981 City limits are built out more slowly, under this option than under the other three. For example, total costs for municipal services other than transportation in 1991 are projected to be 19-25% lower under Alternatives A2, B and C than under Alternative Al. While Alternative Al may involve slightly lower expenditures inside the 1981 boundary, it is clear that a widely dispersed development pattern would likely involve significantly greater costs, as more resources would be required to serve the same population spread over a larger area. Projected capital costs for schools are highest under a highly dispersed development strategy such as Alternative Al. Table 5-8 shows that capital costs and debt service payments are noticeably higher in most years under Alternative Al than under the three alternatives which employ a staged development strategy. In addition, Alternative Al also requires the greatest capital expenditure during the next ten years, when the school boards are still developing the schools required inside the 1981 City boundary. The capital costs are

lowest in total under Alternative A2 and the debt service payments are most evenly distributed under this option. Alternative B is similar in overall cost, but has greater fluctuation in debt service payments. Alternative C shows high capital payments after 2001, but these figures are misleading. These costs were calculated assuming the standard reserve dedication of 10%. Given the larger number of pupils per acre under Alternative C, it was assumed that more land would have to be purchased for school sites at market prices. In actual fact, however, the higher density of development under Alternative C would permit the City to require additional reserve dedication under Section 98 of the Planning Act. This would probably eliminate the need for extra land purchase and would make Alternative C much more attractive in relation to the other options.

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Operating costs for the school systems could not be estimated during the limited time for Phase I of the Urban Growth Strategy, although it was noted by the staff of both school boards that greater economies of operation could be realized with higher densities and a predictable staging of development. The fiscal impact analysis of alternative strategies indicates that the distribution and timing of development in the annexed area will have significant impacts on both revenues and costs. Property tax and business tax revenues can be maximized by designating enough industrial and commercial land to accommodate as much non-residential development as can be attracted to the City. Tax-supported costs can be minimized by developing major employment concentrations in the annexed area, implementing a staging program for residential development, and encouraging increased residential densities over the long term to facilitate efficient use of the transit system. 5.6

TRANSPORTATION EFFICIENCY

The transportation system requirements for each development strategy were

estimated by projecting travel demand for each option in the years 2001 and 2021. The estimated costs for the required improvements are shown in Table 59, and the projected performance of the system under each option is summarized in Table 5-10. It should be noted that the figures in Tables 5-9 and 5-10 are based on the assumption the transportation networks would be developed according to the "balanced transportation system" philosophy enunciated in the proposed Transportation System Plan, and that the overall modal split (% of total trips made by transit) would substantially be the same for each alternative. Due to time constraints, it was not feasible during Phase I to project differences in transit ridership due to variations in the level of service. The figures given are preliminary estimates only, subject to detailed review, and valid only for the purpose of comparing the alternatives. The cost comparisons presented indicate that the resources required for roadway development in the annexed area over a twenty year period are lowest under Alternative A2, which has the greatest amount of decentralized employment. Capital costs for transit service over the first 20 years are generally comparable for all four options, but after 2001 Alternative C shows substantially lower capital (and operating) costs than any of the other scenarios. The performance measurements presented in Table 5-10 indicate limited variation in the level of service among the four options. This is expected since the networks designed in each case were intended to meet the same service objectives, and included many common components based on the existing transportation network. - 63 -

The most significant conclusion from these indicators is that the roadway ' system would experience extreme congestion under all four alternatives by 2021 if the "balanced" transportation strategy is continued past the turn of the century. This implies that a gradual transition to a more transit-oriented transportation strategy will clearly be required to accommodate growth after 2001. The cost data indicate clearly that a transit-oriented system could be developed most economically under Alternative C. This option is therefore considered to be the best of the four in terms of long term transportation efficiency. Alternative A2 appears to be the second best option, due to the lower roadway costs resulting from the larger amount of decentralized employment in this option. Alternatives Al and B appear to be less desirable in terms of transportation efficiency. Alternative B, in particular, shows significantly higher travel times, which is attributed to the rapid growth of population at the most distant extremities of the expanded city under this alternative, due to the location and size of the agricultural conservation areas. The most important conclusion which emerges from a review of transportation costs and performance indicators is that more compact residential development and more decentralized employment growth are the key policy elements which should be included in the preferred development strategy in order to optimize transportation efficiency. 5.7

QUALITATIVE CRITERIA

A number of important considerations that affect the selection or formulation of a preferred development strategy could not be studied effectively in quantitative or statistical terms during the limited time available for Phase I of the Urban Growth Strategy Project. These are outlined below, and the four alternatives are compared briefly in terms of their success in meeting

these qualitiative criteria. Energy Efficiency Energy consumption is affected in several ways by land use planning. Transportation, the pattern of urban development and building type and design are some of the aspects that have a major influence on energy efficiency. However, few of these aspects can be quantified, particularly at the level of detail considered in each of the four alternatives. A qualitative comparision of the alternatives can be made by reviewing the primary mode of transportation and its potential for energy efficiency, estimated vehicle miles by auto and the broad relationship between employment and residential uses.

- 64 -

The primary mode of transportation and its potential for energy efficiency leads to a first ranking for Alternative C. Higher density residential development focussed on activity centres, especially transit related centres gives it the highest potential. Alternative B ranks second and Al and A2 are equal at third. Estimated vehicle miles for auto was used to provide some indication of distances travelled. Alternative A2, was marginally ahead of alternative C in total vehicle miles to 2001. These two were closely followed by Alternative B while Al ranked last. Analysis for 2021 gave a much clearer ranking with Alternative C first, B second, A2 third and Al fourth. In terms of long range rankings of distance travelled then, Alternative C was identified as the best. The relationship between employment and residential uses in the annexed areas ranked Alternative C first with B second and closely followed by A2. The ranking of Alternative A2 under B occurs because of the broad low density residential areas in the south and southwest. Al was ranked last again. Quality of Public Services

During the circulation of the alternative strategies to civic departments, utilities, and school boards, each respondent was asked to indicate whether the standard of service which could be provided to the annexation area would vary among the options. Most of the agencies responded that there would be

no significant differences and that their established standards could be met in all cases. One significant problem which was identified was the difficulty of providing schools in new neighbourhoods quickly enough under Alternative Al. It was confirmed by representatives of both school boards that, if the same amount of population growth is spread out among more neighbourhoods, it takes longer for each area to reach the population required to support a new school. This results in more busing of pupils for a longer time, and greater dissatisfaction from the public. This factor is also relevant for recreational facilities as well. Based on the comments received regarding quality of public services, the only identified relationship between the choice of a development strategy and the standard of service is the effect of residential staging upon the timeliness and accessibility of schools, and possibly recreational facilities. In this respect, Alternative Al is clearly less desirable than any of the other three options.

- 65 -

Scope for Market Competition An important concern, raised by members of Civic Administration as well as the development industry, is the need to have enough land "on stream" to permit competition in the real estate market. In this respect, Alternative Al ranks highest, as all of the land in the annexed area is available for development and the staging of development is determined essentially by the market place. Alternatives A2, B, and C are less desirable from this perspective as the number of new residential areas under development at one time would be limited through a staging programme. Based on the area of land excluded from urban development over forty years, Alternative A2 ranks second, Alternative B third, and Alternative C fourth. Resource Efficiency Alternative B provides the greatest opportunity to fully utilize the natural resources of the annexed area. Development is deferred in areas with oil, gas, sand, and gravel deposits to allow for the extraction of these resources. The areas with highest agricultural capability are protected from urban development for forty years and other good farmland is designated for the later phases of development. Alternative C is a close second in that it also preserves large areas of good farmland and avoids urbanization of the oilbearing area in the west until after 2021. Alternative A2 has some merit in that staging is included, allowing the continuation of farming and resource extraction prior to development. Alternative Al is least desirable in this respect, as it would be likely to result in development activity being spread over a large area at an early stage, encouraging fragmentation, and hindering the continuation of resource based activities. Environmental Sensitivity

The alternative which appears to be most successful in minimizing disturbance of the natural ecology is Alternative B, because of the preservation of farmland under this option and the designation of the wetlands south of Big Lake as rural. Alternative C also shows environmental sensitivity in that significant areas are excluded from development for forty years, although the higher density of development could cause more intensive localized impacts, such as air pollution, increased stormwater runoff or destruction of vegetation. Alternatives A2 and Al rank third and fourth respectively, because of the extent and speed of development activity in these options.

Maintenance of Existing Communities The prospects for maintenance and development of existing mobile home communities are the most promising under Alternative B. All three of the major mobile home parks are maintained in this scenario, and additional residential expansion areas are designated adjacent to the communities located in industrial areas. Alternatives Al and C are approximately equal based on this criterion. In each case the Evergreen and Maple Ridge/Oak Ridge communities would be maintained, but the Westview mobile home park would eventually be redeveloped for industrial uses. Alternative A2 ranks lowest because both the Westview and Maple Ridge/Oak Ridge communities would eventually be phased out for industrial development. Departmental Preferences The preferences expressed by the civic departments, utilities, school boards and other agencies are summarized in Table 5-11. The first choice of the

respondents was Alternative C I followed closely by Alternatives B and A2, with Alternative Al least favoured. The reasons most frequently cited in support of Alternatives A2, B, and C were that the staging of development would permit more orderly planning and implementation of new services, and that higher residential densities would permit certain economies of scale. There was some concern expressed however, that the densities assumed in Alternative C may be unrealistic, and could lead to increased social problems. The problems most often mentioned in connection with Alternative Al were the difficulty and cost of planning and implementing new services in many areas simultaneously. Development Industry Preference The strongest comments made by development industry spokesmen regarding the four alternatives were that the land was annexed for urban growth and should not be designated for agricultural or rural uses, and that the staging of development in the area can and should be determined essentially by market forces. Based on these factors, the ranking of the options from the development industry's point of view would be Al, A2, B, and C in that order. Residents' Preferences Many residents attending the Information Open Houses on the Urban Growth Strategy indicated a feeling that Alternative B represented an appropriate way to go about planning the area. Alternative Al seemed to be perceived by some existing residents as a dubious approach.

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5.9

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

â&#x20AC;˘ The evaluation of the four alternative strategies in relation to the twelve

identified criteria confirms that none of the alternatives is superior in all respects. Each alternative has distinct stengths and weaknesses in comparison to the others. An attempt to measure the overall desirability of each alternative can be made by using a point system, as shown in Table 5-12. However, the value of such an exercise is limited, because it does not reflect the relative importance of the criteria, nor the degree of difference among the alternatives. The relative importance of different criteria can be accounted for by a weighted scoring system but, as shown in Table 5-13, the results of the evaluation then depend largely on the philosophy or biases of the person(s) conducting the evaluation. These observations demonstrate that some form of compromise or combination of approaches is required in order to achieve a suitable balance among the diverse objectives and priorities which are part of the public interest. General principles for the development of an optimum development strategy can be derived from a review of the strengths and weaknesses of each alternative. The main advantage of Alternative Al is that it maximizes the scope for competition in the residential and industrial land markets. The main drawback of this highly dispersed growth pattern is that it requires significantly higher investment in hard and soft services, particularly over the short term, and accelerates and magnifies the intrusion of urban development activities in areas with valuable natural resources. These problems can be mitigated by building some form of residential staging policy into the development strategy for the annexed area. The most desirable features of Alternative A2 are the large amount of land designated for industrial uses and the inclusion of a residential staging pro-

gram. These features help to increase revenues and decrease costs in relation to Alternative Al. A potential pitfall in Alternative A2, however, is the abrupt pattern of residential growth, with homes coming on the market in only one area before 1991, in one additional area during 1991-96, and then six more areas in 1996-2001. This could limit competition and cause sudden changes in the level of servicing activity. A lull would occur during 1980's as existing plan areas fill up, followed by a surge in servicing activity during the early 1990's to accommodate the sudden population increase in the annexed area in the late 1990's. The same problem arises with Alternatives B and C. These disadvantages can be overcome by staging some residential areas

- 68 -

sooner than projected in these alternatives, to increase the margin for competition and smooth out the peaks in servicing activity associated with increased demand for serviced land in the annexed area. The density and staging of development in Alternative B offers significant advantages in servicing costs and in maximizing opportunities for the continuation of farming and resource extraction prior to urbanization. However, the designation of agricultural conservation areas east of Whitemud Creek and east of Namao Airport has the effect of pushing more population to the less accessible extremities of the expanded City sooner, and this contributes to the lower level of transportation services projected under this alternative. This drawback can be eliminated or reduced by leaving agricultural conservation areas out of the strategy or by altering their size and configuration. The strongest feature of Alternative C is minimization of servicing costs through substantially increased densities. However, the density envisaged in this scenario, and the housing mix required to achieve it, appear to be out of

step with the nature of suburban housing needs, at least over the short and intermediate term, and may be undesirable in terms of their actual or perceived impact on the quality of life. Land use policies similar to those implicit in Alternative C may become necessary in the future, depending on the nature and magnitude of changes in the economic environment. Recognition of these contingencies and tradeoffs suggests that the development strategy for the annexed area should encourage the maximum densities which can be achieved within the projected housing mix for the annexed area, by promoting efficient subdivision layouts and compact building forms for each basic dwelling type. It also supports the rationale for a residential staging policy so that, if the need for a higher density housing mix emerges in the marketplace, there will still be options open for the development of new residential communities which could meet this need. The comparative evaluation of the four alternative strategies indicates that the optimum development strategy for the annexed area would be a hybrid combining the following basic elements: (a)

designation of as much land for employment-related uses as can reasonably be expected to be absorbed by market demand for commercial and industrial land;

(b)

encouragement of high density commercial and industrial uses in new employment areas to maximize the number of employment opportunities provided in the annexed area;

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(c)

formulation of a residential staging policy which balances the need to minimize servicing costs with the need for adequate competition in the housing market and for a smooth transition in servicing between the existing City and the annexed area;

(d)

promotion of efficient subdivision layouts and compact building forms to encourage the maximum unit and population densities which can reasonably be expected, given the projected composition of suburban housing demand; and

(e)

consideration of transportation efficiency and other servicing implications in the designation of agricultural or natural resource conservation areas.

TABLE 5-1 GROSS CAPITAL COSTS FOR UTILITIES (INDEXED)

ALT Al

ALT A2

ALT B

ALT.0

1981-1986

1.00

1.06

0.47

0.66

1986-1991

1.00

0.85

0.63

1.00

1991-1996

1.00

0.89

0.92

0.95

1996-2001

1.00

1.13

1.20

1.07

2001-2011

1.00

0.73

0.71

0.75

2011-2021

1.00

1.65

1.27

1.16

40-YEAR TOTAL 5

1.00

0.89

0.90

Notes 1.

All figures are indexed to show projected gross capital costs in 1981 dollars as a proportion of the projected gross capital cost of the Trend Alternative (Al).

Utilities included are water supply, sanitary sewage collection and treatment, solid waste collection and disposal, electrical power, telephones, and natural gas.

None of the costs included would be paid from tax revenues.

The indices shown are based on approximate costs estimated by the utilities based on the facilities warranted by projected development under each alternative.

Calculated by comparison of total capital costs during the time period.

Source:

David Amborski, Urban Planning and Economic Consultant, City of

Edmonton Urban Growth Strategy: Phase I Fiscal Impact Analysis, December, 1981; Table 7.

TABLE 5-2

FISCAL IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES (INDEXED)

YEAR

ALT Al

ALT A2

ALT B

ALT C

1986

1.00

0.80

0.88

0.93

1991

1.00

0.81

0.88

0.85

1996

1.00

0.72

0.85

0.89

2001

1.00

0.68

0.90

0.84

2011

1.00

0.39

0.96

0.14

2021

1.00

0.30

1.01

0.43

Notes 1.

All figures are indexed to show the net deficit as a proportion of the deficit under Alternative Al.

Calculation of deficits based on difference between estimated revenue from property and business taxes, and estimated costs for transportation, police and fire protection, social services, parks and recreation, libraries and schools.

Operating costs for Parks and Recreation not included.

Operating costs for school boards are gross costs; all other costs are net costs after grants, subsidies and developer contributions.

Source:

David Amborski, Urban Planning and Economic Consultant, City of

Edmonton Urban Growth Strategy: Phase I Fiscal Impact Analysis, December, 1981; Table 14

- 72 -

TABLE 5-3

COMPARISON OF REVENUES (INDEXED)

MUNICIPAL

ALT A2

ALT Al

ALT B

ALT C

PROPERTY TAX 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

0.80 0.75 1.03 1.23 1.09 1.17

0.00 0.29 0.64 0.62 0.94 0.94

0.26 0.47 0.73 0.98 1.01 0.96

1986 1991 1996

1.00 1.00 1.00

0.91 0.82 1.09

0.00 0.29 0.65

0.33 0.47 0.72

2001

1.00

1.26

1.31

0.96

2011 2021

1.00 1.00

1.10 1.18

0.95 0.94

0.98 0.92

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

3.49 2.58 2.10 1.56 1.22 1.45

0.00 0.24 0.87 1.02 0.98 0.97

1.28 1.26 1.25 1.18 1.18 1.11

1986 1991 1996 2001 2011 2021

SCHOOL PROPERTY TAX

BUSINESS TAX 1986 1991 1996 2001 2011 2021 Notes

All figures indexed to show estimated revenue as a proportion of estimated revenue under Alternative Al.

All figures based on projected revenue from residential commercial and industrial properties, excluding regional activity centres, agricultural land and rural areas.

Source:

David Amborski, Urban Planning and Economic Consultant, City of Edmonton Urban Growth Strategy: Phase I Fiscal Impact Analysis, December, 1981; Tables 2, 3, and 4.

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TABLE 5-4 ASSESSMENT RATIOS UNDER ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES

ALT. Al

ALT. A2

ALT. B

ALT. C

Actual City Average

1981

64:36

Annexation Area

1986

87:13

0:100

N. A 3

0:100

1991

90:10

48:52

92:8

60:40

1996

82:18

54:46

73:27

61:39

2001

71:29

60:40

68:32

60:40

2011

69:31

64:36

67:33

59:41

2021

75:25

67:33

74:26

67:33

Note: 1.

Table shows the ratio by dollar value between residential and non residential assessment for new urban development in the annexed area. For example, a figure of 60:40 indicates that 60% of the assessment generated by new urban development in the annexed area is residential and 40% is non-residential.

Assessment on regional activity centre developments not included. This would be the same in total under all options.

Alternative B projected no new urban development in the annexed area until after 1986.

Source:

David Amborski, Urban Planning and Economic Consultant, City of Edmonton Urban Growth Strategy: Phase I Fiscal Impact Analysis,

December, 1981; Table 18.

TABLE 5-5 TRANSPORTATION DEBT SERVICE AS PERCENTAGE OF TAX-SUPPORTED SERVICE COSTS (PERCENT)

ALT Al

ALT A2

ALT 13-

ALT C

1986

79%

87%

88%

1991

67%

74%

75% •

82%

1996

56%

62%

63%

65%

2001

37%

35%

36%

40%

Notes

Tax-supported services include transportation, police and fire protection, social services, parks and recreation and libraries and schools. All percentages based on total costs net of grants, subsidies, and developer

contributions. 3.

Operating costs for Parks and Recreation are not included in the total.

Transportation cost after 2001 could not be accurately estimated as it was found to be inappropriate to develop a roadway network that would satisfy demand in 2021.

Source:

David Amborski, Urban Planning and Economic Consultant, City of Edmonton Urban Growth Strategy: Phase I Fiscal Impact Analysis,

December, 1981, Table 13.

)•

- 75 -

TABLE 5-6

•COMPARISON OF TRANSPORTATION COSTS (INDEXED) DEBT- SERVICE 1986 1991 1996 • 2001 2011 • 2021

- ALT Al

ALT A2

ALT B

ALT C

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.91

0.91 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.91 0.93

0.99 0.99 • 0.99 0.98 0.95 0.94

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

0.35 0.68 0.62 0.87 0.94 1.00

0.35 •, 0.68 0.63 0.95 1.02 1.02

0.37 0.23 0.76 0.86 0.80 0.83

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

0.86 0.86 0.84 0.89 0.93 1.00

, 0.88 0.88 0.86 0.93 1.00 1.01

0.96 0.88 0.95 0.93 0.82 0.83

OPERATING COSTS 1986 1991 1996 2001 2011 2021

TOTAL COSTS 1986 1991 1996 2001 2011 2021 Notes

All figures indexed to show cost as a proportion of the cost under Alternative Al.

All .figures based on estimated net costs in '1981 dollars, after grants, subsidies and developer. contributions.

Source: • 'David AMborskii - Urban Planning and Economic Consultant, City of Edmonton Urban Growth Strategy: Phase I Fiscal:IMpact Analysis, •Decembeis,•1981, Table 8.

1 - 76 -

I TABLE 5-7 COMPARISON OF COSTS FOR MUNICIPAL SERVICES OTHER THAN TRANSPORTATION

(INDEXED) I

I 4

ALT A2

ALT B

ALT C

DEBT SERVICE

ALT Al

1986 1991 1996 2001 2011 2021

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

0.44 0.92 0.66 0.98 1.33 1.07

0.44 0.57 0.65 0.70 1.06 1.16

0.43 0.59 0.68 0.76 1.61 1.18

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

0.83 0.80 0.84 0.99 1.00 1.00

0.80 0.78 0.83 0.99 0.99 1.00

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

0.72 0.81 0.83 0.99 1.00 1.00

0.72 0.76 0.83 0.98 1.00 1.00

0.70 0.75 0.82 0.98 1.00 1.00

OPERATING COSTS

1986 1991 1996 2001 2011 2021

TOTAL COSTS 1986 1991 1996 2001 2011 2021 Notes

All figures indexed to show estimated cost as a proportion of estimated cost under Alternative Al.

Debt service index based on estimated payments in 1981 dollars for all debts outstanding in the year indicated.

Operating cost index based on estimated net operating cost in 1981 dollars after grants, subsidies and developer contributions. Parks and Recreation not included.

Source:

David Amborski, Urban Planning and Economic Consultant, City of Edmonton Urban Growth Strategy: Phase I Fiscal Impact Analysis,

December, 1981; Table 9.

- 77 -

ii TABLE 5-8

COMPARISON OF SCHOOL COSTS (INDEXED)

CAPITAL COST

ALT. Al

1981-1986 1986-1991 1991-1996 1996-2001 2001-2011 2011-2021 40-YEAR TOTAL 5

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

ALL. B

ALL C

0.00 0.87 1.64 1.56 0.60 1.03 0.87

0.00 1.00 1.15 1.67 0.70 0.97 0.90

0.00 0.66 1.88 1.61 0.65 0.99 0.88

0.00 0.54 0.95 0.97 0.75 0.82

0.00 0.62 0.82 1.13 0.66 0.75

0.00 0.41 0.96 1.18 0.82 0.73

ALT. A2

DEBT SERVICE COST 1986 1991 1996 2001 2011 2021

(1,

Notes 1.

All figures indexed to show cost as a proportion of the cost under Alternative Al.

All figures based on estimated costs in 1981 Dollars.

Capital Costs refer to the total cost in 1981 dollars of all facilities in the annexed area during the period indicated.

Debt.Service Costs refer to annual payments on.all'outstanding 'debts as of that year.

Calculated by comparison of the total capital costs during the time period.

Source:

David Amborski, Urban Planning and Economic Consultant, City of Edmonton Urban Growth Strategy: Phase I Fiscal Impact Analysis, December, 1981, Tables 6 and 11.

- 78 -

TABLE 5-9 TRANSPORTATION SERVICE COSTS

($ Millions) COST COMPONENT ALT Al

ALT A2

ALT B

ALT C

Capital Cost - Roads 640.0 640.0 532.0 320.0

568.0 568.0 472.0 284.0

584.0 580.0 484.0 292.0

636.0 636.0 528.0 316.0

2,132.0

1,892.0

1,940.0

2,116.0

1981-1986 1986-1991 1991-1996 1996-2001 TOTAL Capital Cost-Transit 1981-1986

6.2

1.5

1986-1991 1991-1996 1996-2001 2001-2011 2011-2021

127.6 10.5 95.4 49.5 61.5

122.1 6.6 101.9 51.2 68.1

122.1 7.1 106.8 54.4 62.7

1.5 123.4 9.9 95.5 36.4 54.3

TOTAL

350.7

351.4

354.6

321.0

1986

0.9

0.7

0.9

1991 1996 2001

1.8 2.5 2.9

1.5 2.1 2.5

1.5 2.1 2.4

1.7 2.4 2.9

3.8 18.3 21.8 39.7 67.3 105.3

0.9 11.9 13.1 35.0 63.6 105.6

0.9 11.9 13.3 38.3 68.9 107.7

0.9 2.9 15.9 33.9 53.5 87.0

Operating Costs - Roads

Operating Costs - Transit 1986 1991 1996 2001 2011 2021 Notes 1.

2. 3.

Source:

All costs are estimated based on network required to accommodate travel demand projected in 2001 and 2021, and are expressed millions of 1981 Dollars. Roadway costs after 2001 could not be estimated as it was found to be in appropriate to develop a road network that would satisfy demand in 2021. Transit Capital Costs consist of expenditures for the purchase of additional vehicles to serve the annexed area. Costs for Light Rail Transit lines, garages and transit centres are not included. City of Edmonton, Transportation Systems Design 'Department, and Edmonton Transit.

TABLE 5-10

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM PERFORMANCE YEAR MEASUREMENT

ALT Al ALT A2

2001

Average trip time (minutes) Average trip length (km) Average trip length (ml) Average speed (auto mph) Average delay (vehicle-hours)

90 19.2 12.0 8.0 1.14

92 18.4 11.4 7.5 1.20

121 18.8 11.7 5.8 1.67

Total number of trips Average % by transit Person trips to CBD % by transit Vehicle trips to CBI) by auto

270,000 26.5% 81,450 64% 19,900

270,000 26:8% 81,450 64% 20,000

270,000 270,000 26.4% 26.9% 81,450 81,450 64% 64% 20,300 20,000

Average trip time (indexed) Average trip length (km) Average trip length (ml) Average speed (auto mph) Average delay (indexed)

1.00 23.7 14.7 2.2 1.00

1.24 23.2 14.4 1.7 1.26

1.21 22.4 13.9 1.7 1.21

Total number of trips Average % by transit Person trips to CBD % by transit Vehicle trips to CBD by auto

408,000 408,000 23.4% 23.6% 111,930 111,930 67.5% 67.5% 25,000 25,000

2021

ALT B ALT C 98 18.9 11.7 7.2 1.29

1.17 21.9 13.6 1.7 1.18

408,000 408,000 23.3% 23.0% 111,930 111,930 67.5% 67:5% 25,200 26,700

Notes 1.

All measurements are for the A.M. peak hour and include both auto and transit modes unless otherwise specified.

Delay is measured in vehicle-hours spent below optimum operating speed.

Average trip length and delay for 2021 are shown in. indexed form because absolute values were not meaningful, reflecting extreme congestion, as indicated by the

average speed.

Source:

City of Edmonton, Transportation Systems Design Department.

TABLE 5-11 DEPARTMENTAL PREFERENCES

AGENCY OR SERVICE

Transportation 3 Water Utility 4 Sewage Collection 4 Wastewater Treatment 4 Storm Drainage 4 Solid Waste 4 Power Telephones Northwestern Utilities Police Fire ' Board of Health Social Services Parks & Recreation Public Library Public School Board Separate School Board Interchurch Planning Council Corporate Policy Planning Office Real Estate & Housing Business Development Assessment Finance Law Bylaw Enforcement Central Supply & Services Computer Systems Utilities Services Mgt. Studies, Systems & Budget Personnel Public Relations Executive Services City Clerk Auditor General TOTAL:

PREFERENCE INDICATED 2 NO. A2 PREF.' Al

0 0 -2 0 -2 0

+1 0 +1 0 0 +1

+1 0 +2 0 +2 +1

+2 0 0 0 +1 +1

-1

0 -1 0 0

+1 0 0 0

-1 0 +1 0

-1 0 +1 -1

-1 -2

-1 0

+1 0

+2 +2

0 +I.

+2 0

-2 -1

-1 -1

-8

NP NP

NP NR NP NP NR NR NP NP NP NP NR NR NR NP NP NR NR

Notes: 1. 2.

3. 4.

No preference - NP indicates no preference stated; NR indicates no response to questionnaire. Preference scores shown are based on responses to a question in which each agency was asked to indicate a preference for each alternative on a five-step scale ranging from strong opposition to strong support. Numerical scores were assigned as follows: Strongly opposed Opposed In Favour Strongly in Favour Neutral -2 -1 0 +1 +2 Co-ordinated response including Transportation Systems Design Department, Engineering Department, and Edmonton Transit. Separate responses received from each utility within the Water and Sanitation Department.

TABLE 5-12 SUMMARY OF EVALUATION EVALUATION CRITERIA

RANK OF EACH ALTERNATIVE'

Quantitative Criteria

Utility Costs F iscal Impact Transportation Efficiency

3 4 4

3 4 2

1 3 3

2 2 1

UNWEIGHTED SCORE 2

Al _

B _

C _

0.5 2 0 _

0.5 5 3

5 5 1 _

3 3 5 _

0.5

8.5

0 0 5 0 0 2 0 5 0

1 3 3 1 1 0 1 3 2

3 3 1 5 5 5 3 1 5 _

5 3 0 3 3 2 5 0 2 _

12.5

23.5

Qualitative Criteria

CO NJ

Energy Efficiency Quality of Services Scope for Competition Resource Efficiency Environmental Sensitivity Maintenance of Existing Communities Departmental Preferenoes Development Industry Preference Residents' Preference

4 4 1 4 4 2 4 1 4

3 1 2 3 3 4 3 2 2

2 1 3 1 1 1 2 3 1

TOTAL:

1 1 4 2 2 2 1 4 2

Notes:

1. 2.

Rank of each alternative is determined by the number of other alternatives superior to it. Unweighted scores based On 5 points for first place, 3 for second, 1 for third, and 0 for fourth. In the case of a tie, applicable points are divided equally.

MEI AIM 1111111 MIN =II

IMP NM JIM MO INN MEM MN

III 11111 EMI MN

11111

MEI NM

OM IMO

IMO

EMI I=

=IIM â&#x20AC;¢

TABLE 5-13 EXAMPLES OF WEIGHTED EVALUATIONS' EVALUATION CRITERIA Quantitative Criteria Utility Costs Fiscal Impact Transportation Efficiency

EXAMPLE 2: ENVIRONMENTALLY ORIENTED

EXAMPLE 1: DEVELOPMENT ORIENTED Weight 2 6 4 3

AlA2

C B _ _

Weight 2

3 0 0 3

3 20 3 26

30 4 9 43

18 12 15 35

5 5 3

0 0 50 0 1 0 0 50 0

2 12 30 1 0 1 1 30 2

6 12 10 5 5 3 3 10 5

10 12 0 3 3 5 5 0 2

10 4 1 10 6 2 2 1 4

101

Al _

A2 _

B _

C _

25 5 9 39

15 15 15 45

30 12 1 50 30 6 6 1

50 12 0 30 18 10 10 0

10 12 3 10 0 2 2 3 8

195

153

18.5 3%

87.5 16%

234 43%

198 37%

2.5 0 0 2.5

2.5 25 3

30.5

Qualitative Criteria

Energy Efficiency Quality of Services Scope for Competition 1 Resource Efficiency 00 Environmental Sensitivity L...) Maintenance of Existing Communities 1 Departmental Preferences Development Industry Preferences Residents Preferences

TOTAL POINTS PERCENTAGE SCORE 3

2 4 10 1 1 1 1 10 1

105 103 26% 27%

73 104 26% 18%

Notes:

1. 2. 3.

Based on raw scores in Table 5-12. Perceived importance on a scale from 1 to 10. Based on a potential maximum of 396 points in Example 1 and 540 points in Example 2.

0 0 5 0 6 0 0 5

EXISTING CONDITIONS

6.1 LAND USES Map 1 shows the land use categories for the annexed lands as well as lands approximately one to two miles outside the 1982 City boundary. The land use categories used are general in definition and have been differentiated by land configurations. The classification system was established using a combination of standard categories and dividing these categories where more detailed information was required. The categories include four classes of agricultural, three classes of industrial, four classes of residential along with commercial, institutional, recreational, and other categories (refer to Appendix A for a complete list and full description of the categories). The land use map was produced with the assistance of Associated Engineering Services Ltd. and was established in three steps; first, existing land use documents were studied to determine the extent and range of the land uses; second, recent air photos (mid July, 1981) were examined to determine use; and third, a field survey in mid September, 1981 was conducted to verify the photo interpretation. For examination purposes, the land use map has been divided into four quadrants based on the analysis area map (refer to Map 3). The land uses in the annexed area varied included farms, mobile home parks, industrial, commercial and institutional uses. The predominate land use is agricultural. Northeast: Analysis Areas I. to 7 This area is primarily agricultural land uses with some industrial and institutional development. The prime agricultural soils in the area allow for highly

productive market gardens, sod and tree farms as well as grain farms. The predominant land use in analysis Area 7 is industrial land for manufacturing. Extraction type industries (e.g. gravel pits) are located within the R.D.A. Institutional uses, including the Alberta Hospital, the Federal Penetentiary and the Henwood Rehabilitation Centre are located in the northeast area. The Evergreen Mobile Home Park and the Horse Hill Community account for most of the non-agricultural residential development in the northeast. Southeast: Analysis Areas B to 13 Agricultural and industrial land uses predominate in this area. Although the soil quality is not as high as that of the northeast, many grain crops (e.g. wheat and oats) are produced in this area. Industrial uses are the next most

- 84 -

common land use consisting of oil-related and manufacturing operations. Country residential acreage estates, approximately three acres in size, are scattered throughout this area. Wernerville, Maple Ridge and Oak Ridge Mobile Home Parks, and Hurstwood Park contain most of the residential developments. Other land uses include churches, cemeteries, a rifle range and a number of recreational areas. Southwest: Analysis Areas 14 to 20 Agricultural land uses predominate in this area. The quality of soil varies resulting in different agricultural activities, ranging from the production of grain crops on the prime agricultural soils to raising livestock on poorer quality land. Country residential acreage estates are mostly located along the North Saskatchewan River system, which itself forms a major part of the southwest. Other land uses include extractive industries, and recreation areas.

Northwest: Analysis Areas 21 to 24 This area has a wide range of uses including agricultural, industrial and recreation lands. The area has the largest concentration of unarable soils found in the annexed lands. A large portion of the land is undeveloped. Manufacturing industries located within large industrial parks, are predominant. Recreational uses include speedway park, a golf course, baseball diamonds and outdoor skating rinks. The Westview Mobile Home Park, Winterburn, Mooncrest and Big Lake Estates are the main residential centres in the northwest. Other land uses include a cemetery, Neuman Theological College and small commercial businesses. The area also has a major concentration of producing oil and natural gas wells. 6.2

ZONING

The recently annexed lands are covered by four rural municipal jurisdictions. Each jurisdiction has its own Land Use Bylaw and General Municipal Plan. The Draft Regional Plan - Metroplitan Part, prepared by the Edmonton Regional Planning Commission (E.R.P.C.), also designates land use zones. Each of the municipal jurisdictions and the E.R.P.C. use somewhat different terms and definitions in explaining the various land use districts. The land use district terminology and definitions have been grouped under general classifications. Map 5b shows the surrounding municipalities' land use districts. Map 5a outlines the Regional Plan's zoning categories (refer to the appropriate Land Use Bylaws and plans for further information).

- 85 -

Northeast The land use districts in the northeast (areas 1-7) were designated by the Municipal District of Sturgeon, the County of Strathcona and the E.R.P.C. Generally the area is zoned Agricultural. There is also some Public and Institutional zoning which includes provincial and federal institutions (e.g. the Alberta Hospital). The Industrial zoning, including heavy industrial uses that are mainly oil related, is concentrated in Sector 7. Southeast The land use districts in the southeast (areas 8-13) are . predominantly Agricultural. There are areas of Industrial and Country Residential zoning. The land use districts are designated for this area by the County of Strathcona and the E.R.P.C. Southwest The land use districts in the southwest (area 14-20) were outlined by the County of Strathcona, the County of Parkland and the E.R.P.C. The predominant zoning is Agricultural, with pockets of Country Residential zoning interspersed throughout. Metropolitan Recreation zoning incorporates the North Saskatchewan River Valley system. Northwest The land use districts to the northwest (areas 21-24) were developed by the County of Parkland, the Municipal District of Sturgeon and the E.R.P.C. The County of Parkland has zoned part of area 21 and 22 as Direct Control District. Other land use districts are General Industrial, and Agricultural, some of which is located within the R.D.A. Existing land use districts and regulations will be maintained in their present state until the City amends its Land Use Bylaw and General Municipal Plan. 6.3

PHYSICAL CONSTRAINTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

There are a number of physical constraints to development in the annexed lands. Examples of constraints to development would be areas having prime agricultural land capabilities or valuable and extensive mineral resources. Conversely, those areas without major constraints provide opportunities for future development. A review of the physical opportunities and constraints for development in the annexed areas is presented below.

- 86 -

Mineral Resources The Mineral Resources maps (Maps 10a, 10b), show coal fields, oil fields, sweet gas fields and major sand and/or gravel deposits. Sand and gravel aggregate deposits are located mostly in the northeast and southwest along the North Saskatchewan River flood plain. Some of the areas have been excavated for their sand and gravel deposits, while others have been identified for their potential but remain intact. The main concentration of oil fields is in the western portion of the annexed area around Winterburn. Chevron Standard Oil Company projects that these oil fields have a 10-15 year life expectancy (however this could change depending on such things as economics or new drilling techniques). The only coal field in the annexed area is the Devon Coal Field in the southwest. There is limited interest in mining the field because it is extremely small and likely uneconomic. There are three sweet gas fields within the annexed area: the Whitemud Field, in analysis area 15; the Armisie Field, in analysis area 19; and the

Chamberlain Field, in analysis area 9. â&#x20AC;˘ Agricultural Land Classification There are six agricultural land categories as outlined by the Canada Land Inventory Classification System. They range from Class 1 with no significant agricultural limitation, to Class 6 which is not recommended for arable agricultural. (Refer to Map 6) The annexation area has a variety of agricultural soils. Generally, the prime lands for farmland production are in the northeast (analysis areas 5, 6 and 7) and in the south and southwest (analysis areas 12 to 19 inclusive). Analysis areas 5, 6, 14, 15, 17 and 19, have prime agricultural lands that are ideal for market gardening. This is due to the Class 1 soils and because the areas are well drained, have the maximum number of frost free days in the region and have vegetation protection from high winds (refer to Chapter 4.4 for further information).

Oil and Natural Gas Wells The producing oil and gas wells are located in the west in analysis areas 19, 20 and 21. Map 11 shows producing wells, the number of abandoned oil and natural gas wells and where current drilling for oil and natural gas is

- 87 -

taking place. As abandoned wells have the potential to leak, their presence must be considered in planning for residential and urban development. Noise Exposure Forecasts and Planning There are three major airports in the Edmonton area: Edmonton Municipal Airport, Edmonton International Airport, and Namao Military Airport. There is also a small private airport in the Winterburn area. Map 9 shows the Noise Exposure Forecast and Planning Contours for the four airports. All of the airports effect the surrounding areas with respect to development height restrictions, noise pollution, traffic impacts and restricted land use implications. To restrict land uses, the Provincial Government has designated airport vicinity protection areas for the Municipal and International Airports. Sanitary Sewerage System The existing City of Edmonton sanitary trunk sewers are shown in Map 13 (A, B). These include gravity and forcernain lines as determined by Edmonton Water and Sanitation Department and Alberta Environment. At this time the capacities of the existing trunk sewers are not known. However, Edmonton Water and Sanitation is currently undertaking a detailed study which will identify trunk sewers having the capacity to accommodate further urban growth. Also shown on Map 13 (A, B) are the proposed sanitary trunks as determined from preliminary area structure plans submitted to the City of Edmonton Planning Department. Additional proposed sewers are shown as determined from the current status of the regional sanitary utility system and from the Edmonton Water and Sanitation Department. (Proposed and projected sanitary sewerage systems are outlined for the analysis areas in a background report on Sanitary Systems prepared by Associated Engineering Services Ltd., 1981). Presently there are three treatment plant systems in the Edmonton Region: Southeast Regional Trunk Line, St. Albert Lagoon and Gold Bar Sewage

Treatment Plant. A regional sewage treatment plant is tentatively scheduled for completion by late 1984 or early 1985. Once the regional sewage plan is completed, the southeast regional trunk line and the St. Albert Lagoon will be connected to it. The Gold Bar Sewage Treatment Plant, recently expanded to a capacity of 55 million gallons per day which would serve roughly 600,000 persons, can beâ&#x20AC;˘expanded to a capacity of 120 million gallons per day.

Stormwater Servicing The City of Edmonton is within several major drainage basins (refer to Map 15D). The contributing area of these basins generally extends far beyond the City limits. The drainage from these basins has significant impact on the proposed stormwater servicing schemes within the City boundaries, since runoff must pass through the City network to reach the North Saskatchewan River. (For further information refer to the background report on Stormwater Servicing by Associated Engineering Services Ltd., 1981.) The existing stormwater trunk system which services the annexed land was originally designed to carry rural runoff from contributing areas outside the 1981 City boundary. Any new development within the annexed area requires a stormwater management scheme if it is to link up with the City trunk network. Area Structure Plans have been submitted which include preliminary stormwater management proposals. These stormwater management schemes must be designed recognizing the overall drainage basin hydrology and hydraulics. Other lands within the 1982 City boundary will generally be serviced by stormwater management systems depending upon proximity to the North

Saskatchewan River. The northwest corner and southeast corner drain outside the City boundaries into the Sturgeon River Basin and Irvine Creek Basin, respectively. The option of implementing an interceptor stormwater trunk sewer to divert runoff from Mill Creek and Fulton Creek in the southeast and Goldbar Creek in the north should be investigated. The northeast corner of the City has direct access to the North Saskatchewan River, creating the option of a conventional storrnwater sewer network. The southwest corner of the City will have a stormwater servicing scheme with restricted access to the North Saskatchewan River due to the possible outfall locations upstream of the City water treatment plant. The existing drainage systems and proposed extensions, as shown on Map 15(A,B,C), can be divided into three categories: 1. 2. 3.

existing storm servicing systems; proposed storm servicing schemes within the 1982 City boundary; and proposed storm servicing schemes within the 1981 City boundary.

Map 15(A,B,C) also shows areas within the annexation boundary which do not have any proposed stormwater servicing plans. These areas have been divided into three categories: 1. areas where storm management is recommended;

- 89 -

2. 3.

areas with direct drainage to the North Saskatchewan River leading to the possible implementation of a conventional stormwater network; and areas with restricted drainage due to natural outfalls upstream of the water tratment plants.

Water Key features of the existing and proposed water supply and transmission lines are shown on Map 14(A). Projected watermain systems include the five year and twenty year preliminary forecasts prepared by Edmonton Water and Sanitation Department. With a basic rectangular grid system and two outer ring mains, the systems may be relocated and sized to suit future growth areas. The timing of the main installation appears to be flexible and is dependent upon the staging of development and budgetary constraints. From Map 14(A) it is apparent that water can be supplied to all potential growth areas in the annexed lands. There does not appear to be any areas where water needs cannot be satisfied, both on the short term and long term.

Other Utilities There are a number of major franchise utilities within the 1982 City boundary, including gas, oil and product pipelines, power transmission facilities and major telephone facilities. Map 16(0) shows the gas, oil and product pipelines. All gas mains shown are considered high pressure mains, generally capable of transmitting gas at 3.5 megapascals. Oil gas lines are mainly concentrated in a zone running from the south extremity of the 1982 City boundary north-easterly to the refinery row area, then in a dispersed pattern running generally northwest. Product pipelines are often considered the most hazardous to human life because

they transport a large variety of products which may be difficult to readily identify should the pipe rupture.

Major power transmission lines and generating stations are shown on Map 16(A). Generating stations have been denoted as Hydro-Electric, Thermal Electric and sub-station. Development constraints related to these facilities and associated with future developments are mainly concentrated in the northeast. Relocation of these facilities to the R.D.A. should be further analyzed prior to development in these areas. Major telephone facilities are shown on Map 16(B). Telephone facilities and cables pose only a limited constraint to development.

- 90 -

Urban Geology Urban geological information concerning natural capabilities and limitations for the annexed lands has been examined (refer to Urban Geology of Edmonton, Bulletin 32, Alberta Research Council, 1975, and Preliminary Report on the Urban Geology of the Annexed Areas in Edmonton, Alberta Research Council, 1981, for further information). This urban geological information includes: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

general construction conditions; suitability for solid waste disposal; susceptibility to erosion; slope stability; and deep sewer construction

These are by no means all the urban geological factors that may have a bearing on development; however they are felt to be of considerable importance and will be considered when more detailed planning is undertaken during Phase II of the Urban Growth Strategy.

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A EXISTING LAND USE

In conjunction with the study of development constraints a review of existing land uses was undertaken in the newly annexed lands by Associated Engineering Services Ltd. The following is a list of categories including definitions, identifiable characteristics, general location of each category and the assumptions upon which each use was categorized (refer to Map 1A, B). (a)

Agricultural

Agriculture is the predominant non-urban land use surrounding the City, therefore the information is required at a detailed level and is divided into four *subclasses. (i)

Grain Crops This subclass is the dominant type of farming occupying the greatest amount of farmland and virtually surrounds the city. It includes grain and hay production, forage crops and mixed farming. These are generally identified by evidence of cultivation by machinery or grazed areas.

(ii)

Field Crops Field crops, include market gardens, sod farms, commercial tree nurseries and other horticultural activities. This category is generally a more intense land use than the grain crops and is readily distinguishable from the grain crops. Market gardens and sod farming cover quite an extensive area in the northeast section. Tree nurseries are scattered throughout the area, and tend to be approximately 10-20 acres. Potato farming occurs primarily in

the northeast and southwest. Livestock

Livestock production included cattle, dairy, hog and poultry farms along with riding stables. This is an intense use of land requiring extensive specialized buildings and facilities. The concentration of buildings is the distinguishing element of this category. Although considered an agricultural category it is identified by a symbol rather than color. Because of the difficulty in determining the extent of the land required to accommodate the livestock, this use was located in conjunction with the farmstead and is therefore indicated by a circle farmstead surrounded

- 92 -

by a square. The remainder of the land is shown as the first agricultural subclass (grain crop) because of the similar appearance to the grain crops. (iv)

Institutional Included in this subclass is the provincially owned Oliver Tree Nursery in the northeast and the experimental farm operated by the University of Alberta in the south.

(b)

Industrial

Industrial land uses are defined as those uses providing for the processing, assembly, storage, transport, wholesaling, servicing or wrecking of goods and materials, including related transportaton facilities. The industrial areas are shown as shades of gray and, have been divided into three subclasses. (i)

Oil related industrial include petrochemical processing, storage, manufacturing and transmission, distinguished by major facilities. The major concentration of oil related industry occurs to the east of the city and pipe storage is located in the south east.

(ii)

Extractive industry include excavations for sand and gravel operations. Excavation are readily identifiable by the scarring of land and major stockpiles of aggregate. The main location is in the northeast on the terraces at the North Saskatchewan River. Smaller operations are located in the northwest and southwest.

(iii)

Other industrial included all storage, warehousing, manufacturing, transportation, and utilities which were not directly related to the oil industry. Several industrial subdivisions have developed in the northwestern, western and eastern areas outside of the 1981 City Boundary. Isolated uses are located throughout the study area, usually connected with a rural residences.

(c)

Residential

Two methods are used to illustrate the distribution of the residential land uses. The first two subclasses have been identified by symbols overlayed onto the type of agricultural land use which surrounds the residences. The last two subclasses are shown as separate colors. The purpose of the different - 93 -

methods of representation is to indicate the degree of constraint each use poses to future development. Farmstead residential, symbolized by a circle, is defined as residences directly connected with the farm operation andincluded some mobile homes. These were characterized by concentrations of various farm buildings, such as barns, granaries and other miscellaneous buildings. Farmsteads which involved livestock production are differentiated from grain production farmsteads by a square around the circle. Non-farm residential, symbolized by a triangle, are rural residences which are not directly connected with an agricultural operation and generally distinguished by the absence of farm machinery, feed supplies and an appearance of active use. Subdivision, multiple parcel country residential subdivisions, illustrated as yellow, are separated from the isolated residential development. They are characterized by internal subdivision roads with access from these roads rather than the county roads. Two main concentrations exist with one, directly south of Sherwood Park, and the other in the southwest along the North Saskatchewan River. (iv)

Mobile Home Parks indicated by light orange color are in three locations: the Evergreen Mobile Home Park in the northeast, the Westview Village in the west and the Maple Ridge/Oak Ridge Mobile Home Park to the east. Mobile home parks are areas developed solely for the use of mobile homes. Isolated mobile home residences were included in the farmstead or rural residential categories depending on their connection with farm activities.

(d)

Institutional

Institutional uses consist of a wide range of uses, including Federal, Provincial and Municipal holdings and buildings, military facilities, service clubs, churches and other religious facilities, hospitals, schools and education facilities. They are shown on the map in blue. Federal institutions include post offices, C.F.B. Namao, and the Canadian Penitentiary Service maximum security prison. Provincial holdings consist of the Alberta Hospital and the Henwood Rehabilitation Centre. Religious facilities include several churches and cemetaries and the St. Joseph's Seminary. Several schools are located in the study area.

- 94 -

(e)

Recreation

Outdoor recreation areas are scattered throughout the study area. They consist of: municipal parks, public reserve lands in rural locations and privately operated recreation facilities serving the public, such as golf courses and skiing resorts. Other facilities include the Edmonton Gun Club, the Commonwealth Shooting Range and Speedway International. (f)

Commercial

Commercial uses include both highway commercial, providing services required by the travelling public such as motels and motor hotels, restaurants and service stations, and other commercial uses such as drive-in theatres. (g)

Natural Areas

The distribution of forest cover in the study area has been greatly reduced

by clearing for agricultural and urban purposes. Very little natural vegetation remains in the area, however, significant farm shelter belts are scattered throughout and tree cover dominates the stream and river valleys. Only

major areas were outlined on Map 1(A,B).. (h)

Vacant

The vacant category refers to the land without an evident use either agricultural or industrial. â&#x20AC;˘These generally tended to be adjacent to existing urban development.

APPENDIX B ISSUE MATRIX

Issue

Input of the Public and Committees in Phase 1 of the UGS Study

Future of Existing Land Uses and Development in the Annexed Lands

Timing and Staging of Development

The Techniques Used to Design and Evaluate Alternative Land Use Options

Agricultural Land Conservation

The Future of Mobile Home Parks

Property and Business Taxes in the Annexed Lands

Maintaining Farm Operations

Providing Services to Annexation

Residents 10.

Role of the Provincial Government for Implementation and Support of the Annexation Decision

11.

Edmonton's Allocation of Population Growth

12.

The Future of the Restricted Development Area

13.

Inter-Relationship of Approved and Proposed Development

14.

The Development of Regional Services and a Regional Services Commission

15.

Developing Heavy Industrial Land in the Annexation Area

16.

Improving the Transportation Network

Development Industry Liaison Committee

Inter Gov't Liaison Committee

Annexation Residents

APPENDIX B ISSUE MATRIX

Issue

17.

Using Existing and New Data for the UGS Study

18.

Impacts of Incompatible Land Uses In the Annexation Area

19.

Effects of Waste Disposal on the Environment

20.

The Role of the ERPC and the Regional Plan in the Study Implementation

21.

The Impact of the Study on Energy Consumtpion and Conservation

22.

Proposed Annexation Boundary Adjustments

23.

Opportunities for Rail Relocation

24.

The Future of Institutional Land Uses in the Annexed Lands

25.

The City's Role in the Developing Part of the Enoch Indian Reserve

Development Industry Liaison Committee

for Urban Development 26.

The Long Term Utilization of Airports

27.

The Role of the Public and Liaison Committees in Phase 2 of the UGS Study

Note: *refers to issues that impact the groups involved.

Inter Gov't Liaison Committee

Annexation Residents

APPENDIX C CITIZEN PARTICIPATION AND INFORMATION PROGRAM INTRODUC HON There are 9,200 residents in the annexation area, with over half of these residents residing in three mobile home parks. The remaining residents are scattered throughout the 86,000 acres of annexed lands, either living on farms or on country residential acreages. The three mobile home parks are Westview Village, Evergreen Park and Maple Ridge/Oak Ridge Park. To give annexation residents an opportunity to be involved in determining future land uses of the annexed area, a Citizen Information Program was set up by the Planning Department. This participation program was organized into three phases: meetings with identified community groups; information open houses with Planning Department representatives; and a second set of information open houses which involved representatives from various civic departments including Planning.

COMMUNITY ASSOCIATIONS AND GROUPS Ten community groups were identified in the annexation area. These groups were the Westview Village Community Association, Evergreen Community Association, Maple Ridge Community Association, Winterburn and District Recreational and Cultural Society, Hurstwood Park Community Association, Mooncrest Community Association, Horse Hill Community Association, Woodbend Community Association, Ellerslie Recreational and Curling Association and the Wintermere Estates Acreage Owners Association. Representatives from the Planning Department met with each of these community groups in late September and early October.

INFORMATION OPEN HOUSES - 1ST SET In addition to the community group meetings, the Planning Department held three public information open houses at Westview Village Hall, Horse Hill School and Maple Ridge Hall in mid-October with approximately 30 people in ,attendance. The Urban Growth Strategy project was introduced to the general public at the open houses and the people attending were given the opportunity to raise any concerns and issues regarding annexation. Concerns voiced at the information open house at Westview Village centered around property assessment, mobile home parks, mobile home licensing, future connection to the Edmonton sewer and water system and the provision

- 98 -

of protective services. Residents in the area are concerned that the Edmonton Fire Department is not prepared to handle any oil or gas well fires which may occur. The importance and effectiveness of public input in the Urban Growth Strategy project was also questioned. Many of those in attendance felt that urban development was inevitable for most of the annexed area. Productive agricultural land in the Westview Village area is limited, however the establishment of an agricultural reserve in other annexed lands was encouraged. Residents of Westview Village Mobile Home Park were concerned about the uncertainty of renting lots and would like to be able to purchase lots in a mobile home designed subdivision. The second information open house was held in Maple Ridge Mobile Home Park. Residents had similar concerns as Westview Village area residents regarding property assessment, mobile home licensing and the provision of protective services. Residents also expressed concern about the poor condition of 17 Street and the delays in the construction of the proposed ring road. It was suggested during the meeting that more time should be allotted

to Phase I of the Urban Growth Strategy due to its importance. Residents felt that existing schools within the annexed areas should be retained and incorporated into the Edmonton School system. As with Westview Village Mobile Home Park tenants, Maple Ridge and Oak Ridge Mobile Home Park residents would also like to purchase lots in a mobile home subdivision.

The third information open house was held in the Horse Hill Elementary School. Again, the main concerns centered around property assessment and the provision of protective services as well as preserving prime agricultural land. There is strong opposition among area residents to urban development on the extensive tracts of prime agricultural land in the northeast. The establishment of an agricultural reserve for some of the area was espoused. Residents of Evergreen Mobile Home Park had the same concerns as other mobile home park tenants in the annexed lands, and they too would like to be able to buy mobile home lots. Concerns raised during the three information open houses centered around property assessment, mobile homes, mobile home licensing, the provision of protective services, utilties and the preservation of prime agricultural land. In all three areas it was suggested that more time should be allotted to Phase One of the Urban Growth Strategy. Almost all of the residents prefer that local schools be retained and incorporated into the Edmonton school system. Residents of the three mobile home parks are concerned that the owners of these parks will sell the property and consequently, force the mobile home owners to relocate.

- 99 -

INFORMATION OPEN HOUSES - 2ND SET The second set of public information open houses held in late November gave annexation residents the opportunity to become familiar with the Urban Growth Strategy alternative land use options. Also, these information open houses provided an informal means for the residents to question representatives from a number of civic departments, namely Fire, Police, Assessment, Parks and Recreation, Planning and Engineering. A representative from the Edmonton Public School Board was also present. Each of the representatives briefly outlined their departments programs and what services the annexed residents could expect to receive after January 1, 1982. Departmental Presentations A Planning Department representative briefly reported on the progress to date of the Urban Growth Strategy project. Four alternative land use options for the annexed lands were introduced to the public for their review. The Planning Department representatiVe outlined when the Study would be preceeding to City Council and how the public would have further opportunity to express their concerns. A Police Department representative told the annexation residents that they will receive police protection which will at least equal the present level of service provided by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. Edmonton Police will provide service to all annexed areas commencing on January 1, 1982. Annexed residents will be able to receive both the protective and specialized police services which are provided by the Edmonton Police. The Police Department representative also outlined the department's divisional districts and what changes in terms of increased manpower and equipment were necessary as a result of the annexation. The Fire Department representative told annexation residents what the department has initiated to date in terms of fire pre - planning and what services could be expected after January 1, 1982. Considerable time hes been spent by fire department personnel familiarizing themselves with the annexed areas. Also, new equipment and apparatus which will service the annexed areas has been purchased. This equipment will be stationed at existing suburban fire stations until new facilities are constructed. The Edmonton Parks and Recreation Department representative outlined what services and programs will be offered to the annexation residents in 1982. The representative indicated that the Department has consulted with recreation personnel in the surrounding municipalities in order to assess the needs and priorities for recreational programs and facilities. The school-

â&#x2013;

100 -

ground maintenance, mosquito control, beaver trapping and area playschool programs will be provided to the residents in 1982. The Engineering Department representative explained the services offered by the Department, which include snow clearing, road maintenance and sign and signals maintenance operations. All roads in the annexed areas, with the exception of Provincial highways, will be taken over by the City's Engineering Department on January 1, 1982. The City will obtain jurisdiction over the provincial highways in the annexed area after March 31, 1982. All services and programs presently being offered by the Department will be available to the annexed residents on January 1, 1982. The Assessment Department representative told the annexation residents how land and building assessment and taxation will be affected by annexation. Residents were told that property and buildings in an urban municipality are assessed differently than in a rural municipality. Most residents will face tax increases with farmers being affected the most (however this has changed

with the Provincial Government exempting farm buildings from being taxed. Concerns and Issues

Winterburn area residents were concerned that they will not receive adequate fire and police protection due to these departments unfamilarity with the annexed area. Some annexation residents questioned the effectiveness of public input into the Urban Growth Strategy project. Mobile home owners encouraged the extension of the Westview Village Mobile Home Park. However, the development of the Park is the responsiblity of the owner. Mobile home owners would still like to see the development of mobile home subdivisions so that they can purchase lots. Residents who wanted to know if building regulations will change after January 1, 1982, were told that existing regulations and bylaws will remain in effect until the City amends its Land Use Bylaw. Exact dates for the takeover of telephone and power services are not available, however negotiations are underway between various Provincial Boards and the utility companies involved. The second information open house was held at Horse Hill Elementary School. Several questions concerning assessment and changes in the assessment procedure were broached. Residents would like to know when public transportation routes will be provided to the Evergreen Mobile Home Park. The provision of public transportation routes in the area depends on Edmonton Transit's plans and the timing of development. The preservation of prime agricultural land in the area is a major concern to many of the residents. The establishment of an agricultural reserve was encouraged. Many residents doubted if adequate police and fire protection would be provided. The repre-

- 101 -

sentatives of the Fire and Police Departments assured the annexed residents that the level of these services will at least be equal to their present level. Many of the residents are concerned that suppliers of water to the area may not be licensed to operate in the City and that residents will not have an adequate supply of water. It was suggested that this matter will be forwarded to a representative from the Water and Sanitation Department. The third information open house was held at Ellerslie School. Many of the concerns voiced at the open house centered on the lack of concern for existing agricultural practices, police and fire protection, education, building and property assessment and mobile homes. Many of the area farmers indicated that the City's fire regulations (e.g. no open fires) should be modified to take into account present agricultural practices. Some residents doubt that the City's Police and Fire Departments will provide adequate service to the annexed areas. Residents also wanted to know what was being done with the Restricted Development Area. City officials pointed out that the Restricted Development Area is a Provincial Government responsibility and that the City is as concerned about the future use of the Restricted Development Area as the residents. Residents wanted to know how the annexation decision would affect education. An Edmonton Public School Board official indicated that the students will be attending their present schools until at least the end of the current school year. From now until then, the Edmonton School Boards will be working with the surrounding municipalities' School Boards and parents to work out the details for the 1982-83 school year. Another area of concern expressed by the residents was assessment. Many residents felt that they would be paying higher taxes but not with commensurate services. The final main issue raised centered around mobile home parks. Mobile home park residents would prefer to own a mobile home lot instead of renting. Additional Citizen Participation meetings will be held by City Council in 1982 to allow further citizen input into the Urban Growth Strategy Study and amendments to the General Municipal Plan.

APPENDIX D COMMITTEES, ASSOCIATIONS AND CITIZENS INVOLVED DURING PHASE 1 OF THE URBAN GROWTH STRATEGY STUDY

COMMUNITY ASSOCIATIONS

NAME

DATE OF MEETING

CONTACT PERSON

Mooncrest Community Assocition

September 23, 1981

Carol Brown

Winterburn and District Recreational and Cultural Society

September 24, 1981

Emil Boyko

Westview Village Community Association

September 28, 1981

Ray Hoffman

Maple Ridge Community Association

September 29, 1981

Trevor Dymchuk

Woodbend Community Association

September 30, 1981

Doug Bly

Hurstwood Park Community Association

October 1, 1981

Derek Stannard

Horse Hill Community Association

October 6, 1981

Peggy Farrell

Windermere Estates Community Association

October 8, 1981

Ellerslie Recreation and Curling Association

October 13, 1981

George Andrews

October 14, 1981

Sandra Brandon

â&#x20AC;¢

M. Andruchow

Evergreen Mobile Home Park Association

CITIZEN INFORMATION OPEN HOUSES

Location

Date of Meeting

Civic Departments Attendance Involved

if In

Westview Village Community Hall

October 15, 1981

145

Planning

Maple Ridge Mobile Home Park Hall

October 19, 1981

Planning

Horse Hill School

October 21, 1981

Planning

- 103 -

Winterburn School

November 23, 1981

255

Planning Engineering Parks and Recreation Assessment Police Fire !Edmonton Public School Board

Horse Hill School

November 24, 1981

100

Planning Engineering Parks and Recreation Assessment Police Fire

Ellerslie School

November 26, 1981

205

Planning Engineering Parks and Recreation Assessment Police Fire Edmonton Public School Board

â&#x20AC;¢

INTERDEPARTMENTAL LIAISON CONTACTS

ORGANIZATION INVOLVED

REPRESENTATIVE(S)

CITY OF EDMONTON

Corporate Policy Planning Office

Tom Fletcher

Transportation Systems Design

Greg Latham

Edmonton Transit

Barry Temple

Water and Sanitation

Cord Thompson John Ward

Parks and Recreation

Grimaye Gabre

Real Estate and Housing

Dave O'neil

Assessment

Art Cooper

Finance

Cord Bremner

Business Development

Graham Deacon

Engineering

Al Maurer

- 104 -

Edmonton Power

Dan Pelletier

'edmonton telephones'

Ron Sollanych

Policy Department

Inspector Ron Allen

Fire 'Department

E. D. Gilchrist

Edmonton Local Board of Health

Dr. L.V. Jonat

Edmonton Social Services

Bevis Peters

Edmonton Public Library

Allen W. Rowe

Bylaw Enforcement

Eddie Agota

Central Supply and Services

Ray Coutts

City Clerk's Office

Cal McGonigle

Computer Systems Development and Services

Satish Ajmani

Executive Services

George Earle

Law Department

Ulli Watkiss

Management Studies, Systems and Budget

Peter Fernandes

Personnel

Walter Luyendyk

Public Relations

John Chalmers

Utilities Services

Hugh Fraser

EXTERNAL AGENCIES

Northwestern Utilities

Lloyd Prefontaine

Edmonton Public School Board

Dr. Courtney Smith

Edmonton Separate School Board

Bill Pasternak

Alberta Interchurch Planning Association

Rev. Tom Sawyer

Note:

Three formal meetings of the Interdepartmental Liaison Committee were held during Phase 1 of the Urban Growth Stategy Project, in additional to working contacts between the project team and departmental staff.

DEVELOPMENT INDUSTRY LIAISON COMMITTEE

ORGANIZATION

REPRESENTATIVE(S)

Housing and Urban Development Association of Canada (HUDAC)

Ron Hunt Brian Carleton

Urban Development Institute (UDI)

Brian Samuell Mary Oldring

Mortgage Lenders Association of Alberta (M.L.A.A.)

John Hinton

Edmonton Chamber of Commerce

Mark Betteridge

City of Edmonton Transportation Systems Design Real Estate and Housing

Greg Latham Dave O'neil Roger Johnson

Note: Six formal meetings of the Development Industry Liaison Committee were held during Phase 1 of the Urban Growth Strategy Project.

INTER-GOVERNMENTAL LIAISON COMMITTEE

ORGANIZATION

REPRESENTATIVE(S)

Edmonton Regional Planning Commission

Eugene Dmytruk Norm Giffen

Alberta Municipal Affairs

Dr. Graham Power

Alberta Environment

Fred Schulte Geoff Foy

Alberta Agriculture

Brian Colgan

Alberta Transportation

Steve Quiring

Alberta Federal and Intergovernmental Affairs

Bob Russell Bill Calder

Note: Two formal meetings of the Intergovernmental Liaison Committee were held during Phase 1 of the Urban Growth Strategy Project.

- 106 -

OTHER GROUPS INVOLVED

ORGANIZATION

REPRESENTATIVE(S)

North East Edmonton Agricultural Group (TOPSOIL)

Jim Visser

Mobile Home Owners of Alberta

Lawrence Playne

Alberta Research Council

Stephen Moran L. Andriashek

Chevron Oil Company Ltd.

Bob Cannon

Alberta Energy Resources Conservation Board

Roy Gossel

APPENDIX E

PRELIMINARY AREA STRUCTURE PLAN PROPOSALS A number of private proposals for residential, industrial and commerical development have been prepared for some of the land in the annexed area (refer to Map 4). It should be noted that the private proposals for future development within the annexed have no official status. The City cannot authorize the preparation of Area Structure Plans until 1982 01 01 at the earliest. At present, these preliminary proposals have been received as information only. County of Parkland has prepared an outline plan for the Winterburn area that has been considered inadequate, especially in the handling of storm water services, by the City of Edmonton.

Lewis Farms Lewis Farms is located in Analysis Area 20 (refer to Map 3 - Analysis Areas) and is bounded by Highway 16 on the north; Hillview Road to the west; the extension of the Whiternud Freeway (79th Avenue) on the south; and River Vally Road, which is the outer edge of the RDA, on the east. The land is presently used for agricultural purposes, specifically crop production and contains the major concentration of active oil and gas wells in the annexed area. The proposed land use is primarily residential. A target population of approximately 46,000 may be accommodated in ten neighbourhoods, each of which will have schools and local open space.

Terwillegar Heights

Terwillegar Heights is located in Analysis Area 16 and is bounded by the 1981 City boundary to the north; Whitemud Creek to the east; and the Restricted Development Area to the south and west. Agricultural is the predominant land use wihtin the plan area. Views associated with the 200 foot high North Saskatchewan River and Creek escarpments that border the plan area on the eastern boundary are the most outstanding and at the same time problematic topographical features of this site.

Terwillegar Heights is part of the Riverbend Terwillegar Heights District Outline Plan which was prepared in 1977. The plan proposed a residential development with an overall density of approximately twenty four persons per acre.

- 108 -

Northwest Edmonton The proposed Northwest Edmonton Area Structure Plan is within Analysis Area 24 and is bounded by the Restricted Development Area to the north; Highway 28 to the east; the 1981 City boundary to the south; and St. Albert Trail to the west. The land encompassed by the preliminary Edmonton Northwest Area Structure Plan boundary is largely used for agricultural purposes. Commercial, institutional, recreational and industrial uses are located primarily along the south and southwest boundaries of the plan area. Isolated residences and farmsteads also exist throughout. The preliminary plan proposes predominantly residential development with some light industrial development in the western portion of the plan area and a large open space comprised of a district park and cernetary between the two dominant land uses. The projected population capacity is 37,500 people.

The Meadows The Meadows is in Analysis Area 10 and is bounded to the west by the 1981

City boundary; to the north by the extension of the Whitemud Freeway; to the east by Highway 14 and to the south by the future ring road connecting

between Highway 14 and Highway 2. The major land use in the area is agricultural with the Mill Creek Ravine bisecting the area. The proposed land use is predominantly residential, with some associated industrial development located adjacent to the rail line which cuts across the northeast portion of the site. The projected population capacity is 56,000 people. Approximately 700 acres would be developed as a light industrial business park.

Daon Project 80 Daon Project 80 is within Analysis Areas 12 and 13 and is bounded by 50th Street to the east; the 1982 City boundary to the south; Highway 2 on the west; and the existing City boundary to the north. The primary land use is agricultural, with most of the land presently under cultivation. A small country residential estate development, Wernerville, containing 38 lots occupies a quarter section located in the northern part of the plan area. The plan proposes a residential population of approximately 100,000 persons to be accommodated in a wide variety of housing types having an overall density of approximately 18 persons per gross acre. The light industrial and business park areas are expected to employ approximately 23,000 people and are located along the western periphery of the site adjacent to the Calgary Trail and C.P.R. railway right-of-way. - 109 -

Yellowhead Corridor The Planning Department has received authorization from City Council to prepare an Area Structure Plan for the eastern and western portions of the Yellowhead Corridor that lie within the annexed lands. The eastern portion is within Analysis Area 7 and is located along a one mile strip north of Highway 16 between the North Saskatchewan River and the 1982 City boundary east. The western portion is located within Analysis Areas 21, 22 and 23 and is bounded on the north by the 1982 City boundary and just south of 137 Avenue; to the east the 1981 City boundary; to the west the 1982 City boundary; and to th south along the CNR tracks to 184 Street; south of the 1981 City boundary.

Prinz Von Thurn Und Taxis and Warren Paving and Materials Group This preliminary Area Structure Plan is within Analysis Area 7 and is located north of Highway 16 and west of Highway 21. The area is comprised of 1,100 acres of land. In terms of land use, the site is used for non-intensive agricultural uses and for medium industrial uses. The plan proposes industrial development for the entire site. The area is served by existing roadway and railway facilities and adjacent lands to the south are commonly referred to as "Refinery Row."

Other Proposals Information has been received with respect to Parkland preliminary Area Structure Plan, Mistatim and Heritage Valley development proposals indicating that more detailed submissions will be forthcoming, and their locations have been included in Map 4.

APPENDIX F CONSULTANTS FOR THE URBAN GROWTH STRATEGY PROJECT PROJECT

CONSULTANT

Legislative Policy Review

Sarah Kipp

Potential for Agricultural Conservation

McKinnon, Allen & Associates (Western) Ltd.

Existing Data Collection involving Land Use, Storm Drainage, Sanitary Sewers, Mineral Resources and Water

Associated Engineering Services Ltd.

Regional Activity Centres

Woods Gordon

Fiscal Impact Analysis

David Amborski

Citizen Information Program -

Graphic Services

Stanley Associates

Preliminary Report on The Urban Geology of the Annexed Areas in Edmonton

Alberta Research Council

MAPS

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Tiltt2:9,3 '7;;4•7`

-L.

_L.

•••

E-17.

ittitt

•

-L •

r's(

O• ,

• •

r •,;!!'‘.Z

-L.

•

••

•

• •

.L.

EXISTING LAND USE

MILES 0

Source Associated Engineering Services Limited Field Survey. September 1981

AGRICULTURAL grain field crop

RESIDENTIAL I

1 subdivision • I agricultural - nonfarm

E I livestock 11.111 institutional

INDUSTRIAL I

1 I

▪ I

agricultural - abandoned

ii=1 mobile home park

RECREATION

INDIAN RESERVATION

December 1981 _ Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

NATURAL COMMERCIAL

oil extractive

URBAn GROWTH STRATEGY

agricultural - farmstead

INSTITUTIONAL

VACANT

1A 1B

other

ozzgar-

• -

!1I

1.g:1/4

•

114:1 ti IlL 01111111

.."

"VV..

1;11LES

December 1981

GENERAL LAND USE PATTERNS Source: Associated Engineering Services Ltd. Existing Land Use Survey, September 1981

Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

residential

industrial

URBA11 GROWTH STRATEGY

extractive industrial SINEGbor

institutional

PLANNING )2

MILES

December 1981 Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

WARD BOUNDARIES Source: City Clerk's Department, August 1981

URBA11 j GROWTH STRATEGY

2 gE5g02PLANNING

MILES 5

December 1981 Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

URBAn GROWTH STRATEGY

URBAN GROWTH STRATEGY ANALYSIS UNITS

Source: Planning Department, November, 1981 THE OTVOF leffatk)2PLANNING

Ca-sselman Steele Heights Clareview: Hermitage elloWh+1

Lewis , Farms

Riverbend Terwillegar 'Heights

Milfwoocfs

co— Terwillegar. Heights —

Her.i,ge Vali ys

Daon Project 80

rVIEt-etV2

MILES 0

December 1981 _ Restricted Development Area -- Old City Boundary New City Boundary

DEVELOPMENT AREAS APPROVED AND PROPOSED Source: Planning Department, September 1981 industrial outline plans development proposals

URBAn GROWTH STRATEGY

area structure plans, approved prior to January 1, 1982 area structure plans, proposed

iiiPLANNING

ermab' nto

MUNICIPAL ZONING

(?: URBArl GROWTH STRATEGY

Source: County of Parkland No. 51, County of Strathcona, The Municipal District of Sturgeon

December 1981

MD OF STURGEON AG agricultural CR country residential PI public and institutional

Restricted Development Area ---- Old City Boundary New City Boundary

COUNTY OF PARKLAND agricultural mixed land use AG country residential CR direct control district DC industrial commercial IC

COUNTY OF STRATHCONA AG agricultural CR country residential small holdings SH MHR mobile home residential RI restricted industrial GI general industrial HI heavy industrial C-3 highway commercial

5A gdontoill

PLANNING

MILES 0

December 1981 Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

REGIONAL ZONING Source: Edmonton Regional Planning Commission, May 1981

low density agricultural general urban 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

general industrial agricultural - general industrial reserve

URBA11 /1 GROWTH STRATEGY

metropolitan recreational

11111111111111 country 'residence "A"

country residence "B"

edonto

PLANNING

47.10•A NA,,C,AAA,,A,C-S,, , t.

'44;11 .LL

166.

-46-

L...

C.L.I. AGRICULTURAL LAND CLASSIFICATION

MILES

December 1981 Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

Source: Alberta Research Council, April 1981

Class 1 — no significant sustained limitation Class 2 — slight limitation

URBA11 GROWTH STRATEGY

Class 3 — moderate limitation Class 4 — marginal for arable agriculture Class 5 & 6 — not recom mended for arable agriculture Extra — jurisdictional control zone

CL1 Subclass t — topography Subclass w — wetness Subclass s — soil (often slaine in this area) Subclass n — droughtness (sands) Subclass * — class 1 soils (which may be particularly suited to market gardening etc.) CLI Class — degree of limitation Note: areas represent broad generalizations, they cannot be used for detailed planning

6 contorANN,NG

I ,,

•

.00 111 1111 IN I 1 ri .1RI i

I ly *ffl

I. Ills lama

1 ,50 r‘lii, . iim — 11..1 ..

gus

December 1981 Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

AGRICULTURAL CONSERVATION AREAS Source: McKinnon, Allen Associates (Western) Ltd

(1 (- ,

URBflfl G STRATEGY

excellent very good good Ian fair unsuitable

7 ei,„ontorsirLANN,NG ITIE Ore OF

HIGHWAY 37

'-',.

. ••

,, g e

dip

illk • .%,. '

VILLE EuvE RD

rns se.irrtl

•-41

moi

I me

al ittt lieg

HIGHWAY, 16 -,

l ay

LIM; limp •

!Atm

IuIIl

ROAD

em r•-, • -r-F • i

-••••" •".17 •

r".',.; I

7 A. y.E.j..9pTiZta l -IL- L2ETJZI3 r

4VHITEMUD

„

••••••,

,J1

---------

---

----------

-t

/ ........

Alifill

'1111 -124

11f

'71-1

preliminary: subject to detailed design MILES 0

ARTERIAL ROAD NETWORK

December 1981

Source: Associated Engineering Services Limited, October 1981

Restricted Development Area

FREEWAYS

Old City Boundary New City Boundary

existing & proposed proposed & uncertain

GROST-1-1 STRATEGY

ARTERIALS - existing & proposed ------- proposed & uncertain

L.R.T. •

existing proposed station

gYHEaT,.

21,©2PLANNING

a©

MILES 0

December 1981

COST SHAREABLE ARTERIAL NETWORK Source: City of Edmonton Transportation Systems Design, October 1981

Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

parking ring road defined route rE

URBA11 GROWTH STRATEGY

proposed road

8B THE OTT Oi A gagaf 2PLANNING

— — — — conditional route

REGIONAL ROAD NETWORK URBA11 GROWTH STRATEGY

Source: Associated Engineering Services Limited, September 1981

MILES

December 1981 Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

NOISE EXPOSURE FOR AIRPORTS Source: Transport Canada, May 1981

URBAn GROWTH STRATEGY

— municipal airport protection overlay noise exposure forecast (N.E.F.) noise exposure planning contour — 1998

9 &Tonto

iiiPLANNING

prthw s idt<,

EAST EDVIONT(:)N, iCOAL .

f.e

411G I 240S.

MINERAL RESOURCES - SAND AND GRAVEL

MILES

Source: Associated Engineering Services Limited. September 1981

sand and/or gravel deposit 1,270 S sand reserves (1000 m3) 3,800 G gravel reserves (1000 m3) 1,000

URBA11 GROWTH STRATEGY

sand & gravel reserves mixed (1000 m3)

excavated

no extraction

almost depleted clay extraction site coal field

December 198I Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

10A 111E

gE0Egar"""

MORINVILLE FIELD

•

---, 4_

CABELL—NA AG FtE

-4—

•

.••••

FIELD

•

'Ettgi

ACHES EE I

•

ARMISIE Fl LD-

a cr,

„)

.FI

727:

.;;--

LE" . WOO

FIEL WHI EM BEL

.4...

MINERAL RESOURCES — OIL AND GAS

MILES 0

Source: Associated Engineering Services Limited, September 1981

December 1981

sweet gas field sweet oil field

Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

sour oil field --- oil pool

URBAn GROWTH STRATEGY

N.S

not specified

10B THE CITY OF gLANNING

E.R.A. established reserves abandoned

elffing©

=-)

IDA

1A c 3A

December 1981 Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

OIL & NATURAL GAS WELLS Source: Alberta Energy and Natural Resources, July 1981

no producing oil and/or natural gas wells A

number of abandoned oil and/or natural gas wells drilling for oil and/or natural gas

URBM GROWTH STRATEGY

1-5 producing oil and/or natural gas wells drilling for oil and/or natural gas and 1-5 producing oil and/or natural gas wells

11 he CT OF

monlo

PLANNING

CJI -1.1.

Q.17:11

42V

â&#x20AC;¢3

MIRO

if .3

MILES 0

December 1981 Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary

LAND ASSESSMENT Source: City of Edmonton Assessment Department, October 1981 Associated Engineering Services Ltd. Land Use Survey, September 1981

New City Boundary

non-farm land

G RUOR STRATEGY

THE CITY Of gEgE102PLANNING

farm land

EXISTING LIFT STATION

PROPOSED .„,"..'REGIONAL z -TREATMENT Z PLANT

-"DISPOSAL

'PROPOSED 'IP PING--

;!•1 1..;it.t;it et 1 ' lar;

644, Ogg

MILES 0

SANITARY SEWERAGE SYSTEM

FUTURE AREAS FOR SANITARY SERVICING

Source: Associated Engineering Services Limited October, 1981

existing sanitary trunk sewer

URBA11 GROWTH STRATEGY

- proposed sanitary trunk sewer existing forcemain proposed forcemain

suggested area limits A

December 1981 Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

contributing area prevailing servicing direction

THE WV OF ap EPLANNING

g ECA

Ft -

MILES 0

December 1981

SANITARY SYSTEMS OVERVIEW Source: Associated Engineering Services Ltd., September 1981

key existing trunk sewer key proposed trunk sewer

URBAC1 GROWTH STRATEGY

existing and proposed treatment facilities

key sanitary servicing zone

A-1

new growth area within zone

Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

13C Co&

tÂ®n

PLANNING

s.s(A

ZU:7111

Ol 1 t

1111111111L

â&#x20AC;¢;

11 low

ie.+61.1.1!

---

MILES 0

WATER SYSTEM Source: Associated Engineering Services Limited October, 1981

December 1981 Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary

URBA11 ,) GROWTH STRATEGY

450 900 1996 RES B.S. P.S. MTR

existing watermain (mm)

New City Boundary

proposed watermain (mm) scheduled year of operation reservoir booster station pumping station

14A Wont()

iiiPLANNING

metre

MILES 0

December 1981

WATER SYSTEM - KEY FEATURE PLAN

Restricted Development Area

Source:' Associated Engineering Services Limited October, 1981

Old City Boundary New City Boundary

- major internal mains inner ring main

URBA11 GROWTH STRATEGY

14B

outer ring mains erEr`aDampLAN.NG 7

regional & other mains

N1/4 11P1111"-40. 1111111 Lill `j/111,0101011

STORM WATER SERVICING

FUTURE STORMWATER SERVICING

Source: Associated Engineering Services Limited September, 1981

Source: Associated Engineering Services Limited, September 1981

proposed stormwater management

existing and proposed conventional drainage stormwater management facility

existing trunk proposed trunk

1111"

December 1981

recommended stormwater management

Restricted Development Area

direct drainage to North Saskatchewan River

Old City Boundary New City Boundary

sewer outfall

restricted drainage to North Saskatchewan River

A URBAn GROWTH STRATEGY

MILES 0

stormwater management or direct diversion to North Saskatchewan River direction of drainage drainage basin boundary

(A,B,C)

CoMEb@PLAN-

sbassua INV

lane

111"8414 Iii ANIMINZEINEllt ?or

111111111111.

1,1simmitimmed.rimosimmion,14,

DRAINAGE BASINS EDMONTON REGION Source: Associated Engineering Services Limited October 1981

URBA11 GROWTH STRATEGY

VINE mew -41411/frittb-\

I5D

drainage basin boundaries mil city boundary (jam 1982)

COMnton

POWER TRANSMISSION FACILITIES

MILES 0

Source: Associated Engineering Services Limited, October 1981

December 1981 TransAlta Utilities 500 kV aerial

TransAlta Utilities 240 kV aerial

Edmonton Power 240 kV U/G

â&#x20AC;¢

Edmonton Power 72 kV U/G M.F. (main feed) Edmonton Power 72 kV U/G S.B. (stand by) Edmonton Power generating and/or terminal station Edmonton Power substation

TransAlta Utilities 138 kV aerial

proposed substation

Edmonton Power 240 kV aerial

URBA11 GROWTH _/ STRATEGY

Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

6A gam THE Car Of

mci

Edmonton Power 72 kV aerial

TransAlta Utilities transmission station

111111111111.1W-,,p,

oloe'

ir , -:,j z

a. •

_ _i

11Frii. -• ,:i 11.611 isq Nrive!-V5

W44-ERBLIR •• • ••

TE PORARY LIGA

-TE

OODBEN • ropoted ) ELLER& LIE

5 r2-7 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,..,

, ,,,,CCILTR

.•.,"

,,,,CVNI.,,,,

MILES 0

December 1981

MAJOR TELEPHONE FACILITIES

Restricted Development Area

Source: Associated Engineering Services Limited, October 1981

Old City Boundary New City Boundary

exchange cable underground duct

URBA11 GROWTH STRATEGY

16B

toll or trunk facilities eyEZEgaTOPLANMNG

exchange boundaries

,T2J.

7_LIT

•

MAIN OIL, GAS AND PRODUCTS PIPELINES Source: Associated Engineering Services Limited, October 1981

oil gas - products

proposed N.E. Edmonton pipeline corridor - Shell Canada Limited - Northwestern Utilities Ltd. - Alberta Energy Company Ltd.

URBAn GROWTH STRATEGY

note:

LEGEND FOR PIPELINES A Alberta Ethane Development

0.- 200,300,600 HP,

tft company size of pipe high pressure

ILES

Alberta Gas Trunk Line

M.W.D.L.

Alberta Products Pipeline Ltd.

Nisku

Canadian Chemcell Company

Northwestern Utilities Ltd.

Restricted Development Area

E F

Canadian Industrial Gas Transmission

Peace Pipe Line

Old City Boundary

Cigol Bittern Lake

Rainbow

New City Boundary

Dome

Rimbey Pipe Line

Federated Pipe Lines

S Texaco

Gibson

Trans Mountain

Great Canadian Oil Sands

Interprovincial

Gulf Alberta Pipe Line Ltd.

✓

Norcen Energy

Imperial Pipe Line

W Alberta Gas Ethylene

December 1981

16C effionto

PLANNING

61•••••m•

MILES 5

December 1981 Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

CONCENTRATED PIPELINE ZONES URBAn GROWTH STRATEGY

Source: Associated Engineering Services Limited, October 1981

16D TOE COT OF

nirl-ANNING

WE01 10 2

ULTIMATE LAND USE - 2021 A.D. ALTERNATIVE Al

MILES

December 1981 Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

Source: Planning Department, November, 1981

ULTIMATE LAND USE CATEGORIES MIXED RESIDENTIAL stage 1 1981 - 1995 stage 2 1996 - 2000 stage 3 2001 INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL

URBM GROWTH STRATEGY

stage 1 1981 - 1995 stage 2 1996 - 2000 stage 3 2001

EID REGIONAL ACTIVITY CENTRE MAJOR INSTITUTIONAL LONG RANGE AGRICULTURAL

OTHER RURAL Note: For discussion purposes only.

onto2PLANNING

ULTIMATE LAND USE - 2021 A.D. ALTERNATIVE A2

December 1981 Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

Source: Planning Department, November, 1981

ULTIMATE LAND USE CATEGORIES MIXED RESIDENTIAL stage 1 1981 - 1995 stage 2 1996 - 2000 stage 3 2001

:El

REGIONAL ACTIVITY CENTRE MAJOR INSTITUTIONAL

INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL

UR13141 GROWTH STRATEGY

stage 1 1981 - 1995 stage 2 1996 -2000

LONG RANGE AGRICULTURAL

OTHER RURAL A< CM OF

stage 3 2001

Note: For discussion purposes only.

,Ko.monto

PLANNING

ULTIMATE LAND USE 2021 A.D. ALTERNATIVE B

MILES

December 1981

Source: Planning Department, November, 1981

Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

ULTIMATE LAND USE CATEGORIES MIXED RESIDENTIAL stage 1 1981 - 1995 stage 2 1996 - 2000 stage 3 2001 INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL

URBAn GROWTH STRATEGY

stage 1 1981 - 1995 stage 2 1996 - 2000 stage 3 2001

01=I

REGIONAL ACTIVITY CENTRE MAJOR INSTITUTIONAL LONG RANGE AGRICULTURAL

OTHER RURAL CITY Of

Note: For discussion

purposes

only.

2PLANNING aift

ULTIMATE LAND USE - 2021 A.D. ALTERNATIVE C

December 1981 Restricted Development Area

Source: Planning Department, November, 1981

Old City Boundary New City Boundary

ULTIMATE LAND USE CATEGORIES MIXED RESIDENTIAL stage 1 1981 - 1995 stage 2 1996 - 2000 stage 3 2001 INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERICAL

URBA11 GROWTH STRATEGY

stage 1 1981 - 1995 stage 2 1996 - 2000 stage 3 2001

I=11=1 REGIONAL ACTIVITY CENTRE MAJOR INSTITUTIONAL LONG RANGE AGRICULTURAL

OTHER RURAL TNE OTV OF

Note: For discussion purposes only.

ft 2PLANNING

EIEDa

.4_L..

_L...

_L..

4k,

-L.-

• 7 •

(i L_

11 ••4.

-.4.rirlarg_r0041 10.

.tll.nmk

_L.

ra,

_L.

rnm

j _L. tz_ VIC

..L.7

MILES CI

December 1981 Restricted Development Area Old City Boundary New City Boundary

EGIONAL ACTIVITY CENTRES MAJOR OPPORTUNITY SECTORS R

URBA11 GROWTH STRATEGY

▪

present regional shopping centre concentration

•

existing planned regional shopping centres areas of highest additional development potential

25 effonto2

PLANNING