Edmonton (Alta.) - 1982 - Transportation systems plan_assessment of future demand (1982-06) by Edmonton Tower Resource Centre Online Library

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2,1 The City ci E '•-i3nton

ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE DEMAND SEPTEMBER, 1981 REVISED MARCH 31, 1982

el TM CITY C

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS DESIGN

TSR/03/81: TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM PLAN ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE DEMAND

The Transportation System Plan consists of the following six reports:

TSR/02/81 Transportation System Plan: Summary TSR/03/81 Transportation System Plan: Assessment of Future Demand TSR/04/81 Transportation System Plan: Development of Alternative Strategies TSR/05/81 Transportation System Plan: Assessment of Alternative Strategies TSR/06/81 Transportation System Plan: The Recommended Strategy TSR/07/81 Transportation System Plan: The Transportation Planning and Implementation Process in Edmonton

These reports were prepared in order to meet the requirements of the City Transportation Act 1970 and constitute the "comprehensive transportation study report" required by the Act.

This series of reports was received as information by City Council as the "comprehensive transportation study report(s)" required by the City Transportation Act, 11 May 1982.

These documents were used as the basis for the development of the "Transportation System Bylaw 6707", as required by the Act.

Finally, the Recommended Strategy was used as the basis for amendments to the "General Municipal Plan Bylaw 6000".

June, 1982

R.A. Heise, P. Eng. General Manager TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS DESIGN

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

SUMMARY

PAGE

1.1

INTRODUCTION

1.2

LAND USE ALTERNATIVES

1.3

NETWORK ASSUMPTIONS

1.4

FUTURE TRAVEL DEMAND

1.5

FUTURE TRANSPORTATION REQUIREMENTS

1.6

SYNOPSIS

INTRODUCTION

2.1

ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT

2.2

OBJECTIVES OF THIS REPORT

2.3

APPROACH

2,4

SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS

LAND USE ALTERNATIVES

3.1

INTRODUCTION

3.2

GENERAL MUNICIPAL PLAN LAND USE SCENARIOS

3.3

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM PLAN LAND USE SCENARIOS

3.4

COMPARISON OF LAND USE SCENARIOS

NETWORK ASSUMPTIONS

4.1

INTRODUCTION

4.2

1981 EXISTING AND COMMITTED ROADWAY NETWORK

4.3

1981 EXISTING AND COMMITTED TRANSIT NETWORK

PAGE 5.0 ESTIMATION OF FUTURE TRAVEL DEMAND 5 1

INTRODUCTION

5.2 DISCUSSION OF UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS IN THE

TRANSPORTATION MODEL 5.3 ESTIMATION OF FUTURE TRAVEL DEMAND

6.0 OVERVIEW OF FUTURE TRAVEL DEMAND 6.1

INTRODUCTION

6.2

CORDONS AND SCREENLINES

6.3

OVERVIEW OF PEAK HOUR HOME-TO-WORK TRAVEL DEMAND

6.4 PEAK HOUR WORK TRIP ATTRACTIONS

6.5 PEAK HOUR WORK TRIP PRODUCTIONS

6.6 DESIRE LINE DEMAND

7.0 ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE TRANSPORTATION REQUIREMENTS

7.1 INTRODUCTION

7.2 ESTIMATION OF DEMAND AND CAPACITY

7.3 RADIAL TRANSIT DEMAND ANALYSIS

7.4 AUTO DEMAND AND CAPACITY ANALYSIS

7.5 FUTURE TRANSPORTATION REQUIREMENTS

7.6 CONCLUDING STATEMENTS ON TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTS AND FUTURE TRANSPORTATION REQUIREMENTS

LIST OF FIGURES

PAGE

1.1 Year and Scenario in Which Radial Transit Inbound Demand First Exceeds 3000 pph.

1.2 Year and Scenario in Which crosstown Auto Capacity First Becomes Deficient

1.3 Year and Scenario in Which Radial Auto Capacity First Becomes Deficient

2.1 The Edmonton Sub-Region

2.2 External Traffic Zones

2.3 Internal Traffic Zones

3.1 Population Projections for Scenarios D, E and F

3.2 Employment Projections for Scenarios D, E and F

3.3 Labour Participation for Scenarios D, E & F

3.4 Modified Employment Projections for Scenarios D,

E and F 3.5 Zonal System Based on Screen Line and Cordons

3.6 Population Projections for Scenarios A and I

3.7 Employment Projections for Scenarios A and I

3.8 Sub-Regional Labour Participation Rates for Scenarios

A and I; 1971 to 2001 3.9 Modified Employment Projections for Scenarios A and I

3.10 TSP and GMP Population Projections

3.11 Ranges of 1981 Population Estimates Assumed by Land

A25

Use Scenarios A and D 3.12 Ranges of 1991 Estimates Assumed by Scenarios A,

A26

E and F 3.13 Ranges of 2001 Estimates Assumed by Scenarios A and I

A27

3.14 Employment Projections for GM? and TSP Land Use Scenarios

3.15 Ranges of 1981 Employment Estimates Assumed by Land Use

A30

Scenarios A and D 3.16 Ranges of 1991 Employment Estimates Assumed by Scenarios

A31

A, E and F 3.17 Ranges of 2001 Employment Estimates Assumed by Scenarios A and I

A32

PAGE

4.1 1981 Existing and Committed Roadway Network

34/A34

4.2 1981 Existing and Committed Transit Network

36/A37

5.1 Schematic Flow Chart of the Future Travel Demand

Estimation Process 6.1 Cordons and Screenlines

6.2 Peak Hour Work Trip Attraction

6.3 Peak Hour Work Trip Production

6.4 Desire-Line Plots - 1981 A

A61

6.5 Desire-Line Plots - 1986 A

A61

6.6 Desire-Line Plots - 1991 A

A61

6.7 Desire-Line Plots - 2001 A

A61

6.8 Desire-Line Plots - 1981 D

A62

6.9 Desire-Line Plots - 1991 E

A62

6.10 Desire-Line Plots - 1991 F

A62

6.11 Desire-Line Plots - 2001 I

A62

6.12 Year and Scenario in which Radial Total Inbound

Demand First Exceeds 10,000 pph. 7.1 Radial Transit Demand Inbound to the Central Business

District on the Existing and Committed Network - 1981 A 7.2 Radial Transit Demand Inbound to the Central Business

District on the Existing and Committed Network - 1981 D 7.3 Radial Transit Demand Inbound to the Central Business

District on the Existing and Committed Network - 1986 A 7.4 Radial Transit Demand Inbound to the Central Business

District on the Existing and Committed Network - 1991 A 7.5 Radial Transit Demand Inbound to the Central Business

District on the Existing and Committed Network - 1991 E 7.6 Radial Transit Demand Inbound to the Central Business

District on the Existing and Committed Network - 1991 F 7.7 Radial Transit Demand Inbound to the Central Business

District on the Existing and Committed Network - 2001 A 7.8 Radial Transit Demand Inbound to the Central Business

District on the Existing and Committed Network - 2001 I 7.9 Radial Auto Capacity Minus Demand Inbound to the Central Business District on the Existing and Committed Network - 1981 A

PAGE

7.10 Radial Auto Capacity Minus Demand Inbound to the

Central Business District on the Existing and Committed Network - 1981 D 7.11 Radial Auto Capacity Minus Demand Inbound to the

Central Business District on the Existing and Committed Network - 1986 A 7.12 Radial Auto Capacity Minus Demand Inbound to the

Central Business District on the Existing and Committed Network - 1991 A 7.13 Radial Auto Capacity Minus Demand Inbound to the

Central Business District on the Existing and Committed Network - 1991 E 7.14 Radial Auto Capacity Minus Demand Inbound to the

Central Business District on the Existing and Committed Network - 1991 F 7.15 Radial Auto Capacity Minus Demand Inbound to the

Central Business District on the Existing and Committed Network - 2001 A 7.16 Radial Auto Capacity Minus Demand Inbound to the

Central Business District on the Existing and Committed Network - 2001 I 7.17 Cordon and Screen Segments Representing River Crossings

63/A81

7.18 Year and Scenario in Which Radial Transit Inbound

Demand First Exceeds 3000 pph. 7.19 Year and Scenario in Which Crosstown Auto Capacity First

Becomes Deficient 7.20 Year and Scenario in Which Radial Auto Capacity First Becomes Deficient

LIST OF TABLES

PAGE

3.1 Summary of Land Use Scenarios Used in the Transportation

Analysis 3.2 Sub-Region Population and Employment Projections for

Scenarios D, E & F: 1971 to 2001 3.3 Employment Projections for the City of Edmonton for

Scenarios D, E and F: 1971 to 2001 3.4 Modified Sub-Regional Population and Employment Levels

for Scenarios D, E and F Used in Transportation Analysis 1971 to 2001 3.5 1981 Land Use Scenario D

All

3.6 1991 Land Use Scenario E

A13

3.7 1991 Land Use Scenario F

Al5

3.8 Sub-Regional Population and Employment Projections for

Scenarios A and I: 1971 to 2001 3-.9 Employment Projections for the City of Edmonton for

Scenarios A and I: 1971 ro 2001 3.10 Modified Sub-Regional Population and Employment Levels

for Scenarios A and I Used in Transportation Analysis: 1971 to 2001 3.11 1981 Land Use Scenario A

A17

3.12 1986 Land Use Scenario A

A18

3.13 1991 Land Use Scenario A

A19

3.14 2001 Land Use Scenario A

A20

3.15 2001 Land Use Scenario I

A22

5.1 Average Trip Production

A40

5.2 Average Trip Attraction

A40

6.1 Comparison of Peak Hour Trip Generation

6.2 Peak Hour Work Trip Attractions by Destination

6.3 Peak Hour Work Trip Productions by Origin

PAGE

7.1 Roadway Capacity Assumptions

7.2 Existing and Committed Roadway Network Capacity -

Radial Inbound to the Central Business District 7.3 Screenline Capacities Existing and Committed Roadway

Network 7.4 Screenlines Crossed by Central Business District -

A75

Destined Automobile Trips (1981A) Existing and Committed 7.5 Screenlines Crossed by Central Business District -

A76

Destined Automobile Trips (1981D) Existing and Committed 7.6 Fringe Auto Demand Minus Capacity on the Existing and

A77

Committed Network - Clockwise 7.7 Fringe Auto Demand Minus Capacity on the Existing and

A77

Committed Network - Counter-Clockwise 7.8 Crosstown Auto Demand on the Existing and Committed

A79

Network - Counter-Clockwise 7.9 Potential for Roadway Rings - Clockwise Crosstown

A79

7.10 Auto Demand for River Crossings - Southbound

A82

7.11 Auto Demand for River Crossings - Northbound

A82

1.0 SUMMARY

1.1 INTRODUCTION

This report is presented in "executive format" to simplify its understanding by the community at large.

The appendix follows the structure of the report exactly and offers further details on all facets of the technical matters described.

1.2 LAND USE ALTERNATIVES

Future travel demand forecasts were developed using a set of alternative land use scenarios based on different urban development strategies. These demand forecasts were used in the identification and ranking of capacity deficiencies in the transportation network. It was assumed that the actual future land use configuration and hence the travel demand patterns would lie within the range defined by the different scenarios. By adopting this approach, uncertainties associated with the prediction of future land use patterns and travel demand and their impacts were minimized.

Both the Transportation System Plan Team of the Transportation Systems Design Department and the General Municipal Plan Team of the Planning Department developed alternative land use scenarios. These land use scenarios represented different growth strategies, which resulted in different hypothetical growth patterns within the Edmonton sub-region. The differences between these growth patterns are to be found in the different assumptions and forecasts regarding the density, distribution and overall levels of population and employment opportunities within the study area over the period between 1981 and 2001.

1.3 NETWORK ASSUMPTIONS

The distribution of the travel demand between all origins and destinations, and the division of total trips into the available travel modes, was made on the basis of automobile and transit travel times that would prevail on the existing and committed network. The existing and committed networks were defined as those arterial roadways and transit facilities which existed at the time (1979) of the development of the computer simulation networks, plus all those facilities committed to construction or provision before 1982, as described in the then-current five-year progrAm.

There were three major new components in addition to the existing 1979 roadway network:

- the truck route loop (except Whitemud Freeway between 75 Street and Highway 14) - one radial route (Calgary Trail between 23 Avenue and 51 Avenue) - arterial roadway extensions for access to developing areas.

Four major LRT extensions were assumed to be added to the 1979 transit network. Although only the Clareview extension was actually scheduled for construction by 1981, the other major extensions were included, so that the major transit infrastructure assumed by all General Municipal Plan and Transportation System Plan growth scenarios would be able to influence the analysis of future transportation demand.

- NELRT extension to Clareview Town Centre

- Jasper Avenue LRT extension to Government Centre - SLRT extension to 51 Avenue

- University of Alberta LRT extension.

In addition to these LRT extensions, existing bus routes were restructured to integrate with the new LRT stations along these extensions and the proposed transit centre concept.

1.4 FUTURE TRAVEL DEMAND

Estimation of future travel demand was performed using a transportation modelling system developed by the Transportation Systems Design Department from the UTPS package of the U.S. Government.

This model was based on certain simplifying assumptions relating to:

- the use of the morning peak hour for demand forecasting purposes

- trip generation rates

- road congestion conditions

- auto occupancy levels

- energy supplies and prices

- parking availability

The Edmonton sub-region was subdivided by 4 cordons and 8 screenlines, for use in the analysis of future travel demand patterns likely to result from the alternative land use scenarios.

1.5 FUTURE TRANSPORTATION REQUIREMENTS

By comparing the capacity provided by the existing and committed network across the cordons and screenlines with the straight-line demand patterns resulting from the alternative land use scenarios, it was possible to identify both the strengths and the deficiencies of the existing and committed roadway and transit networks. Based on the assumption that each of the land use scenarios has a realistic chance of occurrence, the probability of the actual occurrence of a particular deficiency can be estimated from the frequency of its occurrence under each of the land use scenarios.

For transit capacities, it was difficult to assign specific values as the supply of transit capacity can easily be modified to serve demand. Therefore, it was decided to identify locations in which transit demand exceeded 3,000 person trips per hour. This demand level was considered to be the threshold at which major transit facilities, such as bus lanes or LRT links, may become viable, especially when the supply of roadway capacity is restricted, undesirable or unavailable.

Figure 1.1 highlights the year and scenario in which transit volumes first exceed 3,000 pph. Significant demand for transit was found in sectors containing the outlying suburbs, such as Millwoods, Clareview, Castle Downs, West Jasper Place, Riverbend and Terwillegar. The areas with the highest priority for transit improvement were the University, Queen Mary Park, NAIT and the western Central Business District fringe. The areas with the second highest priority were the west end corridor, Northgate, Castle Downs and Millwoods.

Figure 1.2 summarizes the demand and capacity analyses for the non-radial fringe and crosstown auto trips. The areas with the highest priority for transportation improvement were the southwest fringe (near the University), the northwest fringe (near Westmount), the northeast fringe (near the Coliseum) and the southeast fringe (near Bonnie Doon). The areas having the next highest priority for improvement were the western fringe and outer areas, and the southeastern and the northeastern outer area.

Figure 1.3 highlights the sectors and the year in which radial auto demand first exceeded the available roadway capacity. The sectors with the highest priority for radial improvement were in the west end, and south of the Central Business District, between cordons 1 and 3. The next set of priorities were access from the north across the CNR tracks, from the east across the North Saskatchewan River and from the southwest. The last group of radial improvement priorities were from the northwest and northeast.

1.6 SYNOPSIS

This assessment of future transportation demand highlights the transportation problems that may face the City over the next 20 years if the City were to add only marginally to its existing transport infrastructure.

The interpretation of the results of this travel demand study must be undertaken with caution because of the simplifying assumptions made throughout. The Study represents no more than a preliminary assessment of the nature, the scale and the location of potential transportation problems that could emerge in Edmonton under different growth scenarios to the end of the century.

The alternative strategies and networks examined in subsequent reports are based on sound transportation planning practice and practical considerations as much as this assessment of future travel demands.

Finally, this report and subsequent additional transport network analyses provided input to the definition of the strategic policies, and their priorities, on which the recommended strategy and networks are based.

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2.0 INTRODUCTION

2.1 ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT

This report is presented in "executive format" to simplify its understanding by the community at large.

The Appendix follows the structure of the report exactly and offers further details on all facets of the technical matters described.

In this Section, the objectives, approach, scope and limitations of the study report are presented.

A summary of the major findings is contained in Section 1.

Alternative land use scenarios are discussed and detailed comparisons are presented in Section 3.

.Section 4 documents key elements and underlying assumptions associated with the existing and committed roadway and transit networks* used in this study.

An overview of the travel demand forecasting process is presented in Section 5.

Section 6 presents an overview of future travel demand under the various land use scenarios.

Finally, an assessment of future transportation demand is contained in Section 7.

The existing and committed roadway and transit networks are defined as the respective networks existing in 1979 plus those facilities committed for construction by the year 1981. This term is used throughout this report in this sense.

11 2.2 OBJECTIVES OF THIS REPORT

- to identify the nature, magnitude and location of potential transportation problems in Edmonton during the next twenty years.

- to assess the probability of occurrence of each potential transportation problem.

- to assist in the development of transportation policies and networks appropriate for the City of Edmonton over the next 20 years.

2.3 APPROACH

A set of alternative land use scenarios based on different development strategies was employed in the forecasting of future travel demand and in the ranking of capacity deficiencies in the existing and committed transportation networks. By adopting this approach the potential impacts of uncertainties associated with predicting future land use configuration and travel demand were minimized.

2.4 SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS

The study area adopted for this project consists of the Edmonton sub-region (as of 1979) (Shown on Figure 2.1 attached) subdivided as required for analytical purposes into homogeneous and relatively small traffic zones. These are shown on Figures 2.2 and 2.3.

The modelling process was designed to estimate morning peak hour work trips and certain simplifying assumptions were made in the travel demand forecasting stages.

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3.0 LAND USE ALTERNATIVES

3.1 INTRODUCTION

The rapid growth that Edmonton and its surrounding areas have experienced since the Second World War is projected to continue over the planning horizon, in the light of the development of the major energy projects contemplated in Northern Alberta.

For this study, a set of alternative land use scenarios based on different development strategies was employed in the forecasting of future travel demand and in the identification and ranking of capacity deficiencies in the transportation network. It was assumed that the actual future land use configuration and hence the travel demand patterns would lie within the range defined by the different scenarios. By adopting this approach, uncertainties associated with the prediction of future land use patterns and travel demand and their impacts were minimized.

Both the Transportation System Plan Team of the Transportation Systems Design Department and the General Municipal Team of the Planning Department developed alternative land use scenarios.

3.2 GENERAL MUNICIPAL PLAN LAND USE SCENARIOS

Three land use scenarios were developed by the General Municipal Plan Team. Scenario D represented a compact growth strategy, Scenario E represented a growth strategy based on the observed trends to 1979 and Scenario F represented a concentrated growth strategy.

3.2.1 Population and Employment Projections

Population and employment projections for the Edmonton sub-region employed by Scenarios D, E and F are illustrated graphically in Figures 3.1 and 3.2 respectively.

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SUB-REGIONAL POPULATION

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1976

1981

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1991

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1996

SUB-REGIONAL POPULATION PROJECT IONS USED IN LAND USE SCENARIOS D, E AND F: 1971 TO 2001

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The population of the Edmonton sub-region was projected to increase at an annual rate of 2.25% between 1976 and 2001. The number of people residing in the Edmonton sub-region was expected to increase from almost 600,000 in 1976 to over a million at the end of the 20th Century. This trend also implied that the Edmonton sub-region would almost double its population in 30 years (1971 - 2001). Although the overall target population was the same for Scenarios D, E and F, they each assumed different growth patterns for Edmonton proper and its sub-region.

Total employment opportunities within the Edmonton sub-region were projected to increase from 185,000 in 1971 to 479,000 in 2001. (Figure 3.2 and Table 3.2.) It is interesting to note that although sub-regional employment was expected to triple between 1971 and 2001, sub-regional population was projected to double during the same period. This was attributed to the following underlying assumptions implicit in the forecasting process. A higher level of labor participation than that presently extant was assumed for the design period, on the expectation that todays vibrant economy would be spurred by major energy projects. This trend, of increasing female and youth participation in the labour force which was evident in the 1970's, was projected to continue over the plan period, and is illustrated graphically in Figure 3.3. The proportion of employed persons in the Edmonton sub-region was projected to rise from 0.34 of total sub-regional population in 1971, to 0.40 in 1991, and to 0.46 in 2001 (Table 3.2). In addition, all three scenarios assumed that the City of Edmonton would accommodate 92.5% to 92.8% of total sub-regional employment opportunities. Employment projections for the City of Edmonton are presented in Table 3.3. The number of jobs expected to be located in the City of Edmonton increased more than 21/2 times between 1971 and 2001.

Due to constraints within the trip generation component of the transportation model, employment assumptions associated with Scenarios D, E and F described above, were overridden: a maximum participation rate of 0.40 was imposed, to reflect the number of full-time jobs only. As well, the location of employment throughout the sub-region was assumed to be

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TABLE 3.2 SUB-REGION POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR SCENARIOS D,E & F:1971 TO 2001

YEAR

POPULATION

EMPLOYMENT

LABOUR PARTICIPATION RATE

540,000

185,000

0.34

1981

692,000

254,000

0.37

1991

868,000

348,000

0.40

2001

1,04 1,000

479,000

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2001

FIGURE 3.3 SUB-REGION LABOUR PARTICIPATION RATES FOR SCENARIOS D,E & F: 1971 TO 2001

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TABLE 3.2 LABOUR PARTICIPATION FOR SCENARIOS D,E & F SOURCE: General Municipal Plan

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1971

responsive to the distribution of population rather than be invariant, and the modelling process reflected this thesis.

The population levels for the Edmonton sub-region, were not modified and were identical to the figures contained in Table 3.2. For use in the transportation analyses, sub-regional employment levels were modified to reflect a participation rate of 0.4 and these adjustments are included in Table 3.4. A comparison of the adjusted and unadjusted employment figures is depicted graphically in Figure 3.4. The most significant difference between the two sets of employment projections lies in the number of jobs in the year 2001, a difference of 63,000. This figure represented the number of part-time employment opportunities which were excluded from the transportation analyses.

A zone system based on the cordons and screenlines (see Section 6.2) employed in the estimation of demand and capacity, was utilized to describe and compare the level and distribution of population and employment for each alternative land use scenario. The location of each of these zones is illustrated in Figure 3.5.

Detailed population and employment estimates and descriptions of the alternative land use scenarios can also be found in the Appendix.

3.3 TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM PLAN LAND USE SCENARIOS

Two land use scenarios were developed by the Transportation System Plan Team. Scenario A represented a "trends" land use projection and Scenario I represented an extreme case of land use concentration*.

3.3.1 Population and Employment Projections

Population and employment projections for the City of Edmonton and the sub-region for Scenarios A and I are illustrated graphically in Figures

The scenarios used for analytic purposes were designated as A, D, E, F, and I. Other scenarios, eg. B, C, G and H, were not developed for use in this context nor for other purposes.

TABLE 3.3 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR THE CITY OF EDMONTON SCENARIOS D,E AND F : 1971 TO 2001

Sub-Region

City

% Employment

Employment

in City

1971

185,000

171,000

92.4

1981

254,000

255,000

92.5

1991 -

348,000

525,000

92.8

2001

479,000

444,000

92.7

TABLE 3.4 MODIFIED SUB-REGIONAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT LEVELS FOR SCENARIOS D, E AND F USED IN TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS: 1971 TO 2001

Sub-Region

Labour Partici-

Population

Employment

pation Rate

1971

540,000

185,000

0.34

1981

692,000

277,000*

0.40*

1991

868,000

347,000

0.40

2001

1,041,000

416,000*

0:40*

* modified labour participation rate - see Table 3.2 and text.

2 trans ortation s stem plan

trans ortation s stem •lan

e d wei sifs uogg eg Jo. sew

trans ortation s stem plan transportation system plan

500,000 ...-C

••

-',

w . g s/1" uonej i O. SU eJ

400,000

300,000 c)

---- e`<-

.......t. ' •••S \....\ .......

e d wag s s uogg epo. sue)

\4‘ -...,„-c) • \ ...., .9, -.---.., ';'" c,` ‘>.--

' - 0--(' ......

200,000

e\-

100,000 1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

MODIFIED SUB-REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT LEVELS FOR SCENARIOS D , E AND F USED IN TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS: 1971 TO 2001

=ansportationSystem Pia !NE OTV

Edmonton

MODIFIED EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR SCENARIOS D, E AND F

trans • ortation $ stem plan

trans • ortation system plan

trans • ortation system p an

FIGURE 3.4 trans • ortation s stem plan

trans ortation s stem plan

11 • •

LAKE D I STR I C

A 16

I I

eke raw-

7 CASTLEDOWNS

W. EDMONTON

41-1.

PILOT S 0 UN i

2_,

L.) k4rif

"WWI I

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20 ,

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rg,

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11/475,400 II IUI s

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. LIE ------4,..s...---- ._ ........., I a STADIUM • ..ii A 1 1 WEST END ,, ‘ 3 11.4 -LI-- AREA - -- • • • •• ,, CAP I LANO 13 ',,,,„ OLIVER F4-.1 ---------------- - ---------------- ------ - \ "1,--j ; - ''' '1 :;31': -1:1•11 1 6 , 1 W. JASPER PLACE '••.IV 11 NN I VERS I T1' oTTEwg11.__. )1 STRATHCONA •:- -,...... BONNIE 1 PLA.C ', .....i . :7ER 000 N ,i ..E......k,,,,,.._ _..,_ ..... ,,,,c,==.,.,-,, .110v ri.. • • , -AVONMO _-,_: _.: . RE .......-.„ 5W ' • PRIMROSE L 1 3: it -,14 9 , a Ili THORNCL I FF ne SOUTHGATE i...LJNDUSTRIAL AREA RiTCHIE .

trans ortation s stem plan

e d wai sifS don e J O , suei

nsportation system plan transportation system plan

4%.

INDUSTRIAL ,-.

:tlli

..'''

DUG GAN':',7',..

!CASK I TAY° ----,..

C_ fli ll 1111110_1

Ow'

i kt.

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BLUE QUI LL. iii" ---

, ahllifilf 2i.....vo i ri:ri [

screenline sector

wimiffINTansportationSyst6 —

- @Manton ZONAL SYSTEM BASED ON SCREEN LINES AND CORDONS ns • ortation system plan — fthil§-ollitto

Mani' orlation system p an

FIGURE 3.5

trans • ortation s 'Stem

3.6 and 3.7 respectively. Population control totals for the Edmonton sub-region were taken from population forecasts prepared by the Planning Department in May, 1978*.

Under Scenarios A and I, the sub-regional population was expected to increase at a rate of 2.2% per annum between 1976 and 2001. The number of persons residing in the sub-region was forecast to increase from about 600,000 in 1976 to almost one million at the beginning of the 21st Century, which represents a 60% increase in 25 years.

The overall level of population in 2001 was the same for Scenarios A and I. Each scenario, however, assumed a slightly different distribution between the City of Edmonton and its surrounding areas, as well as a significantly different distribution between the inner city areas and the outlying suburbs in the City. Sub-regional population growth was allocated to the rural areas and communities such as Sherwood Park, St. Albert, Leduc and Spruce Grove, based on the patterns implied by growth strategy "A" prepared by the Edmonton Regional Planning Commission.**

Employment estimates for Scenarios A and I were developed based on population projections using the following assumptions:

- a participation rate of 0.476 (1976 Census) was applied to the target population to obtain employment estimates

- the proportion of city residents working outside the city was assumed to be 5% of total persons employed in the City of Edmonton

- 92.3% of all employment opportunities within the sub-region was forecast to be located in the City of Edmonton

- all the above rates were expected to remain sensibly constant over the planning horizon.

Population projections, Short Range and Long Range Population Projections for the Edmonton Sub-Region and the City of Edmonton prepared by the Planning Department in May, 1978. A Choice of Growth Management Strategies, Final Report, Edmonton Regional Planning Commission, March, 1977.

e d luei sits uonej i o. sue!)

trans or a son s St

or a ion s s

SUB —REGIONAL POPULATION 1,000,000

44 -. 9 44' , 900,000

4 4-

. .7 4'

4 // , .// 4 4-

.64,

700,000

e d wej sirs uoli es i o • seen

44' , ,47 . , 4 4 , . " 44 ' , 44 ' I -X' ..,, -.7 4'/ /I 4 .

600,000

500,000 1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

e d we sits u ouepo. sej

800,000

SUB —REGIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS USED IN LAND USE 1971 TO 2001

=ansportationSysteni Pia

wir

eitrionton s ortation system plan

POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SCENARIOS A AND I

trans • ortation system plan

FIGURE 3.6

trans • ortation s stem plan

e d we sirs uon el io. suei

SCENARIOS A AND I :

26 trans ortation s stem plan

500,000

SUB -REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT

. -**%--

.9, ***

9 4 9 9 9 99 200,000

/ 99 9 9

..* .% ,,

*** 9 9 9 9

edwei sAs utoisepo • sue.'

300,000

* * *1'.

e d wei sifs uon ei io • suei

400,000

., ..„.% .4-4" --% * * *-' .

94 9

100,000

I 1976

1981

1986

I 1996

1991

2001

1971

e d ilim sifs uon ej iodsuei

trans ortation s stem plan

uoij ej JO • sue.,

ns • ortation s stem plan transportation system plan

SUB-REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR LAND

=ansportationSystem Pia @ TIE

ori

EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR SCENARIOS A AND I

ns • ortation s stem plan

trans • ortation system plan

FIGURE 3.7

trans • ortation s stem plan

e d tuai sA's u onel io • sue:

USE SCENARIOS A AND I : 1971 TO 2001

Sub-regional employment was forecast to double between 1971 and 1991, and the labour participation rate was expected to increase from 0.34 of total sub-regional population to 0.467 in 1976 and to remain constant for the balance of the planning horizon (Table 3.8 and Figure 3.8). As stated above, the City of Edmonton was assumed to accommodate 92.3% of the total employment in the sub-region, and these projections are presented in Table 3.9. Total city employment was also projected to double between 1971 and 1991. The City of Edmonton was expected to accommodate more than 440,000 jobs by the end of the 20th Century.

Again, due to constraints built into the trip generation components of the transportation model, the level of employment assumed by these scenarios was adjusted to a labour participation rate of 0.40, to reflect the proportion of full-time employees in the labour force. These adjustments are shown in Table 3.10. A comparison of the adjusted and unadjusted employment figures is illustrated in Figure 3.9. It should be noted that employment projections for 1981, 1991 and 2001 were adjusted by a significant amount. However, the modified employment figures represented the portion of the work force employed on a fulltime basis and this proportion was consistent with the percentage of full-time workers in Alberta estimated by the Alberta Bureau of Statistics.

The zone system (Figure 3.5) based on cordons and screenlines described earlier was again used to facilitate description of the land use scenarios. This material is included in the Appendix.

3.4 COMPARISON OF LAND USE SCENARIOS

Comparisons of the population and employment forecasts prepared by the General Municipal Plan Team and the Transportation System Plan Team may be made by studying Figures 3.10 and 3.14.

Further detailed comparisons are presented in the Appendix, documenting the likely differences between the two forecasts through the planning period and by geographic area of the city.

28 trans ortation s stem plan

trans ortation s stem plan trans ortation system plan

trans ortation s stem'Ian

uosses i odsuei

TABLE 3.8

YEAR

POPULATION

EMPLOYMENT

1971

540,000

185,000

0,34

1981

675,000

311,000

0.467

1991

822,000

378,000

0.467

2001

963,000

443,000

0.467

e d (massifs

SUB-REGIONAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR SCENARIOS A AND I : 1971 TO 2001

e duia sifs

uois es i osue(

LABOUR PARTIC I PAT1ON RATE

IIi /I XI', 7 - ' /,;,

a a'

.I, // I,

e dtuas sA's uosi es i oi sue(

I, // /I. /,

ail

0.3 1971

1981

1991

2001

=ansportationSystem Pia17

eiirionton

LABOUR PARTICIPATION RATES FOR SCENARIOS A AND I

TABLE 3.8 FIGURE 3.8

trans ortation system plan

trans ortation s stem plan

transportation system plan

trans â&#x20AC;¢ ortation s stem plan

e d (mas sifs

SUB-REGIONAL LABOUR PARTICIPATION RATES FOR SCENARIOS A AND I : 1971 TO 2001

uones i o sue(

FIGURE 3.8

TABLE 3.9 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR THE CITY OF EDMONTON FOR SCENARIOS A AND I: 1971 TO 2001

Sub-Regional

City

% Employment

Employment

in City

1971

185,000

171,000

92.4

1981

311,000

284,000

92.3

1991

378,000

349,000

92.3

2001

443,000

409,000

92.3

TABLE 3.10 MODIFIED SUB - REGIONAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT LEVELS FOR SCENARIOS A AND I AS USED IN TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS: 1971 TO 2001

Sub-Regional

Labour Partici-

Population

Employment

pation Rate

1971

540,000

185,000

0.34

1981

675,000

270,000

0.40*

1991

822,000

329,000*

0.40*

2001

963,000

385,000*

0.40*

* modified labour participation rate - see Table 3.2 and text.

500,000

,** *4

e d waj sAs uon ei JodsueJ

trans ortation s stem plan

trans ortation s stem plan transportation system plan

..e. ****

, • _LaLdia.mafk =MEM;LLUGUJ

..,

400,000

,** -...'.

(si--

s'?!=

--' CO

300,000

jet

i N 4 + // 4' -.k . 0 4 " d1 .(''

1.6

k.1/ /

200,000

„/I,, .-"

100,000

1971

1976

1981

1986

1 1991

1996

2001

MODIFIED SUB —REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT LEVELS FOR SCENARIOS A AND USED IN TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS: 1971 TO 2001

41.1.

TansportationSystern Plan

mwmplia

•••

MODIFIED EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR SCENARIOS A AND I

trans ortation s stem plan

t s ort t • s• t

transportation syst m pan

FIGURE 3.9

trans ortation s stem plan

SUB —REGIONAL POPULATION

ff7,1ffilr).T7,M7MIMI7:17FM

trans or ation s st

ans or a ion s s

I I, 4

.e,

1,000,000

-, ,, 4.

4 4

_LgLdIL_klifL MMKaULUUIJ

900 ,000

800,000 .0.

4 4 z,

edwaisics uon el io • suei

700,000

,, I, * ., ,,

600,000

1..

500,000 1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

ue d wa s s uo 3 epo • suei

=ansportationSystem Pia TSP AND GMP POPULATION PROJECTIONS

S • ortation system plan

trans • ortation system plan

transportation system plan

FIGURE 3.10 trans • ortation s stem plan

e d waj s/ Cs uon es io • suw

TSP AND GM P SUB—REGIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS 1971 TO 2001

32 trans ortation s stem plan

trans ortation s stem plan

500,000 "11 • •

SUB-REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT

* * If //

i t *

e d war s s uon wor suei ,

400,000

. ,

. r,

300,000

. .

• •

eld wor sifs uoij e io dsuer

ns • ortation s stem plan transportation system plan

C.. \I • * 'I

200,000

100,000 1971

I 1976

1981

I 1986

1991

I 1996

2001

•

mimmransportationSystem

elffionton ns ortation s stem plan

S Suor

er ror sue.,

EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR GMP AND TSP LAND USE SCENARIOS: 1971 TO 2001

Plan

EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR GMP AND TSP LAND USE SCENARIOS trans • ortation system plan

transportation system plan

FIGURE 3.14

trans ortation s stem plan

4.0 NETWORK ASSUMPTIONS

4.1 INTRODUCTION

One of the procedures in the assessment of future transportation requirements was the identification of future potential problems and flaws in the existing and committed transportation network. Various travel demand patterns corresponding to the alternative land use scenarios were assigned to this common roadway and transit network to determine the nature, location, magnitude and urgency of probable capacity deficiencies.

The basic components of the existing and committed roadway and transit network are highlighted below.

4.2 1981 EXISTING AND COMMITTED ROADWAY NETWORK

There were three major new components in addition to the existing 1979 roadway network:

- the truck route loop

- one radial route

- the arterial roadway extensions for access to developing areas.

The 1981 existing and committed roadway network is shown in Figure 4.1, and the major new components are described in the Appendix.

4.3 1981 EXISTING AND COMMITTED TRANSIT NETWORK

There were three major additions to the existing transit network. The first group of additions involved light rail transit extensions and the associated modification to existing bus routes to feed these new extensions. The second group involved the extension of bus services into newly developed residential and industrial areas. The third group involved

34 trans ortation s stem plan

trans • ortation s stem plan

=rransportationSystem

ernionton trans • ortation system plan

1981 EXISTING & COMMITTED ROADWAY NETWORK

trans • ortation system plan

transportation system plan

FIGURE 4.1

trans • ortation s stem plan

e d tuus s A's u onepo . sum,

e•

-; .s

• le

sue, ,

e d wei sA's Lit:kn ew). suea

e d tuel sits u onei i o • '1

ue d ulei sifs u ojmi o • sue,

trans • ortation system plan transportation system plan

the construction of new transit centres or improvements to existing centres. A map showing the 1981 existing plus committed transit network is presented in Figure 4.2.

4.3.1 Light Rail Transit Extensions

Four major extensions were assumed to be added to the LRT line. Although only the Clareview extension was actually scheduled for construction by 1981, the other major extensions were included, so that the major transit infrastructure assumed by all General Municipal Plan and Transportation System Plan growth scenarios would be able to influence the analysis of future transportation demand.

- NELRT extension to Clareview Town Centre

- Jasper Avenue LRT extension to Government Centre

- SLRT extension to 51 Avenue

- University of Alberta LRT extension

In addition to these LRT extensions, existing bus routes were restructured to integrate with the new LRT stations along these extensions and the proposed transit centre concept.

36 trans ortation s stem •Ian

Mr igrIn";17 M

trans • ortation s stem'Ian

trans • ortation system plan transportation__.systeln.Plan

l.flagi.. Eilh .. rl.ffiaW. 1111!" mil .. T

..111 4•7 X

P r=

7.2 Zrtitr,SVF E M rail Iiiii m hatik: '1VIFFI ; =or- rm." IT ;V Ulm or -(2E11. totem, s1WE re.111,1111V-m m1-7,74 r71.-1 .741Priffirv mel ..r---• -itraurtmalatiNVIENOPaiww swag ' p - rn• lia ltrer .4...0 IIM.Ird il lpl l n EWLEfull larlira i ,... ie iuiium

7;3'41 .-

AM 2 -01ligI-L- Ir. /kr 0,:waia ries r. d is ._...., '1 •••#.:01 iii LNV r"="' _7*- -- ES LIM.17.-All I 7 rz-liiaill re I ! Ir.&,..,.- 4111Wrir 'litgla;1 ' iwyk.-- -1 . 14lr l'TMIISIlttiliii 1'm

...1,4 . .......,.; , .

ill ii a

lisipsit7 1.6.,...1

Tailin. 4* IIPIllah, .aitt;. mpg% 0 it EtAA ,.1., , At, woli pito .— . --..,,....s ,....,.......\v-, gvi...5.,lit.., iirt tice LW": 1441 ilfe :::: 7 : 41; -ViMa lik Mimi 3 nli INIONEr 14...r,„Ii Iwo. 4 *w 114's17: li 1111 gib rfia/460. I rqaap.01 ,--7/A 41r4F0gAsti," ••4 r * gi., 4 `t,- -•:<; 0 MI

ransportationSystem

Iffimmmw

trans ortation system plan

1981 EXISTING & COMMITTED TRANSIT NETWORK

trans ortalion.,,sY.Stem plan

transportation system pan

FIGURE 4.2

transportation s stem plan

••••

5.0 ESTIMATION OF FUTURE TRAVEL DEMAND

5.1 INTRODUCTION

Future travel demand was forecast for the range of land use strategies discussed earlier. These forecasts were subsequently compared with the capacity available in the existing and committed network to assist in the process of developing alternative transportation networks.

A comprehensive transportation model was used to forecast travel demand and this model was based on certain simplifying assumptions, relating to:

- the use of the morning peak hour for demand forecasting purposes

- trip generation rates

- road congestion conditions

- auto occupancy levels

- energy supplies and prices

- parking availability

Each of these assumptions is discussed in detail in the Appendix.

5.2 DISCUSSION OF UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS IN TEE TRANSPORTATION MODEL

See Appendix A5.2

5.3 ESTIMATION OF FUTURE TRAVEL DEMAND

Estimation of future travel demand was performed using a transportation modelling system developed by the Transportation Systems Design Department

from the UTPS package of the U.S. Government. The estimation process consisted of the following 4 basic steps:

- trip generation

- trip distribution.

- modal split

- trip assignment

These steps are shown in Figure 5.1 and are discussed in detail in the Appendix. The results of the demand forecast process are documented in the following section.

as or a i

39 ss

rans or a ion $ st

e dwaisdfs uoi e io dsueJ

M .P.LWILIILWEEJ

FUTURE LAND USE - population - employment

TRIP GENERATION e d wej s s u oi l ej i o. suei

trip production - trip attraction - trip end balancing

TRIP DISTRIBUTION

e d wai sA's uwj erio. suei

- captive trip distribution - choice trip distribution - external trip distribution

MODAL SPLIT

JO. sue,

- choice modal split

e d w8 s 3 u or e

- captive modal split

TRIP ASSIGNMENT - capacity-restrained assignment

=ansportationSystem Pa

(30ffiondon

SCHEMATIC FLOW CHART OF THE FUTURE TRAVEL

FIGURE 5.1

DEMAND ESTIMATION PROCESS s ortation system plan

trans ortation system plan

transportation system plan

trans ortatiOn s stem plan

e d woj sits uon ev o. su ei,

- straight line assignment

6.0 OVERVIEW OF FUTURE TRAVEL DEMAND

6.1 INTRODUCTION

Cordons and screenlines were defined to summarize the various travel demand patterns likely to result from the different land use scenarios. The two methods of assignment - capacity restrained and straight line or demand assignment - described in the Appendix were employed to estimate travel demand across these screenlines and cordons. These two methods were designed to measure the ability of the 1981 existing and committed network to match the desired travel demands, and later to assist in the preparation of alternative transportation strategies for the design period to the year 2001.

Reference should be made to Table 3.1 included in the Appendix, for details of the alternative land use scenarios considered in the transportation analysis for the design years discussed in this section.

6.2 CORDONS AND SCREENLINES

The City of Edmonton was subdivided by 4 cordons and 8 screenlines for use in the analysis of future travel demand. These cordons and screenlines are illustrated in Figure 6.1 and are described in geographic detail in the Appendix.

6.3 OVERVIEW OF PEAK HOUR HOME-TO-WORK TRAVEL DEMAND

6.3.1 Peak Hour Trip Generation

Peak hour home-to-work trip generation by mode of travel for Scenarios A, D, E, F and I and for the years 1981, 1986, 1991 and 2001 are summarized in Table 6.1. Two broad categories of trips that could register impacts on Edmonton's roadway and transit network were considered in the trip generation model. They are defined as follows:

sportation system plan transportation system plan

trans • ortation s stem plan

eid wapics uon es id • sues

TIEMEIEL

ue . amp s uor 3 e) J o sue.,

trans • ortation s stem plan

v.: 3 3- ern:

1).6149:#111;11=6.111-3Pda

/afiliro ''' ..4616 .. "---

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e d (Pupil's uon el io. SUOJ

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#65. 4. Alalgeglib'.410r

cordon no. screenline no.

sector no.

=ansportationSystem Par el TIE Cr,V OF nitori

S • ortation system plan

CORDONS AND SCREENLINES

trans • or

system plan

transportation system plan

FIGURE 6-1

trans • ortation s stem plan

e d taw s s uon es io. sue(

Agri %.

TABLE 6.1 COMPARISON OF PEAK HOUR TRIP GENERATION (in thousands of person trips) 1981 A Internal By Auto By Transit Sub-Total % by Transitl % of Total External By Auto By Transit Sub-Total % by Transit % of Total Internal and External By Auto By Transit Total % by Transitl

72 â&#x20AC;¢ 2799

1986

1991

72 28 100

81 29 110

86 31 117

82 33 115

88 33 121

99 36 135

100 36 136

27% 84%

28% 83%

27% 84%

26% 82%

29% -78%

18 1 19

19 1 20

20 1 21

24 1 25

6% 16%

6% 17%

6% 16%

6% 18%

90 28 118 24%

2001

91 29 120 24%

100 31 131 23%

110 32 142 23%

27% 81%

27% 82%

30 2 32

26 2 28

28 2 30

6% 22%

6% 19%

6% 18%

112 35 147 23%

114 35 149 23%

128 38 165 23%

128 38 166 23%

1 These modal splits are those anticipated under 'do-nothing' conditions. They would likely be different under 'dosomething' conditions.

COMPARISON OF PEAK HOUR TRIP GENERATION

TABLE 6.1

- Internal trips refer to trips that originated inside the city and were destined to job locations inside or outside Edmonton.

- External trips refer to trips that originated outside the city in surrounding communities such as Sherwood Park and St. Albert and were destined to job locations inside Edmonton. Trips destined to locations outside Edmonton were also included if they involved travel through the city.

Substantial growth in trip making is expected over the planning period for internal trips by both the auto and transit modes and also for external trips by the auto mode.

There are no significant differences between land use scenarios in regard to mode split forecasts. This is largely a function of the common roadway and transit networks adopted for this segment of the Transplan process. In later segments, alternative networks are examined in detail and differences in mode split do emerge.

Further detailed comparisons of the trip generation forecasts are provided in the Appendix.

6.3.4

Auto Restraint

At this juncture it is important to note that the foregoing remarks do not reflect the impact of measures that might be taken, or allowed to develop, to restrain the use of private vehicles for the journey to work. Such measures were investigated in the development of alternative strategies for the design period and are described elsewhere.

6.4 PEAK HOUR WORK TRIP ATTRACTIONS

6.4.1 General Remarks and Definitions

Peak hour work trip attractions by destination for Scenarios A, D, E, F

and I and for the years 1981, 1986, 1991 and and 2001 are presented in Table 6.2 and illustrated graphically in Figure 6.2 Four general areas are defined by trip (destination) characteristics in this table, they are:

- the Central Business District - radial trips

- the Central Business District Fringe area - fringe trips

- the remainder of the city-crosstown trips

- areas outside the city - external trips.

Review of Table 6.2 and Figure 6.2 reveals that the major element in the growth of trip attractions is to be found in crosstown trips. The remaining trip types show no significant increases.

As in the case of trip generation, there are no substantive differences in modal split for the alternative land use scenarios.

Further detailed commentary on the forecasts is provided in the Appendix.

6.5 PEAK HOUR WORK TRIP PRODUCTIONS

6.5.1 General Remarks and Definitions

Peak hour work trip productions by origins for Scenarios A, D, E, F and I and for the years 1981, 1986, 1991 and 2001 are shown in Figure 6.3 and in Table 6.3. The general areas were defined by the cordons:

- the central area - areas inside Cordon 2

- the inner suburbs - areas between Cordons 2 and 4

- the outlying plan areas

TABLE 6.2 PEAK HOUR WORK TRIP ATTRACTIONS BY DESTINATION (in thousands of person trips) 1981

1986

1991

2001

ARRIVALS A

23 14 37

28 17 45

25 16 40

25 15 40

38 21 59

34 19 54

25 17 42

39% 31%

37% 38%

39% 31%

38% 28%

36% 40%

36% 36%

40% 25%

41% 25%

15 6 21

16 6 21

16 7 22

16 7 23

15 6 20

15 6 21

18 7 25

19 7 26

30% 18%

27% 18%

29% 17%

28% 16%

28% 14%

28% 15%

27% 16%

45 7 52

39 6 45

51 8 60

59 11 69

47 8 55

53 9 63

73 14 87

72 14 86

% by Transit % of Total

14% 44%

14% 38%

14% 46%

15% 49%

15% 37%

15% 42%

16% 52%

External Trips By Auto By Transit Sub-Total

8 0 8

10 0 10

13 0 13

11 0 11

12 0 12

% by Transit % of Total

0% 7%

0% 6%

0% 7%

0% 9%

0% 7%

118

120

131

142

147

149

166

Radial Trips By Auto By Transit Sub-Total % by Transit % of Total Fringe Trips By Auto By Transit Sub-Total % by Transit % of Total Crosstown Trips By Auto By Transit Sub-Total

Total Trips

PEAK HOUR WORK TRIP ATTRACTIONS

TABLE 6.2

1981 ARRIVALS

1986 A

trans ortation s stem plan

1991

2001

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:71

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L74

TOTAL 777

LEGEND

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ransportationSystem Plan 11. 0 I,

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PEAK HOUR WORK TRIP ATTRACTION

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FIGURE 6.2 trans ortation s stem plan

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EXTERNAL

TABLE 6.3 PEAK HOUR WORK TRIP PRODUCTIONS BY ORIGIN (in thousands of person trips) 1981

2001

1991

1986

DEPARTURES A

9 6 15

8 6 14

9 6 15

7 5 13

8 6 14

9 6 15

11 8 19

% by Transit % of Total

42% 12%

41% 11%

41% 10%

43% 9%

42% 10%

41% 9%

41% 11%

Inner Suburbs By Auto By Transit Sub-Total

36 12 48

37 13 50

37 12 49

32 12 44

35 14 49

38 12 49

39 12 51

% by Transit % of Total

25% 41%

26% 42%

24% 37%

24% 34%

27% 30%

28% 33%

24% 30%

24% 31%

Outlying Areas By Auto By Transit Sub-Total

27 9 36

35 12 47

40 13 53

43 15 58

45 14 58

53 18 71

50 16 66

% by Transit % of Total

24% 30%

25% 30%

25% 36%

25% 37%

27% 40%

23% 39%

25% 43%

25% 40%

External Areas By Auto By Transit Sub-Total

18 1 19

19 1 20

20 1 21

24 1 25

30 2 32

26 2 28

28 2 30

6% 16%

6% 17%

6% 16%

6% 18%

6% 22%

6% 19%

6% 18%

118

120

131

142

147

149

166

Central Area By Auto By Transit Sub-Total

% by Transit % of Total Total Trips

PEAK HOUR WORK TRIP PRODUCTIONS

TABLE 6.3

1986

1981

1991

2001

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DEPARTURES A

INSIDE CORDON 2 CENTRAL AREA

OUTSIDE CORDON 4 OUTLYING AREAS

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FIGURE 6.3

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7.,31

- surrounding communities outside the city, ie. areas beyond Cordon 4.

The major growth in travel demands will be experienced from the outlying and external areas. The Central Area and Inner Suburbs will experience no tangible growth in trip production.

Further analyses of the forecasts are provided in the Appendix.

6.6 DESIRE LINE DEMAND

6.6.1 Desire Line Diagrams

Peak hour desire line demands across the cordons and screenlines for Scenarios A, D, E, F and I and for the years 1981, 1986, 1991 and 2001, were developed and are provided in the Appendix along with detailed descriptions of the demand patterns and the potential ramifications of these in the city.

6.6.2 Summary of Travel Demand

A demand of 10,000 person-trips during the morning peak hour represents a significant movement of people, requiring major roadway and transit facilities to meet this demand. Figure 6.12 illustrates the year in which radial travel demand was expected to exceed 10,000 persons per hour across each cordon under each land use scenario. Significant travel demand was projected for Sector 2 outside Cordon 4 (Millwoods), Sector 3 (Riverbend - Terwillegar), Sector 4 (West Jasper Place), Sector 7 (Castle Downs I and II) and Sector 8 between Cordons 3 and 4 (Clareview).

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7.0 ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE TRANSPORTATION REQUIREMENTS

7.1 INTRODUCTION

The morning peak hour home-to-work travel demand associated with each of the available land use scenarios was forecast for the years 1981, 1986, 1991 and 2001 using the Transportation Systems Design Department's modelling system described in Chapter 5. These alternative future travel demand patterns were used to identify both the strengths and the deficiencies of the existing and committed roadway and transit networks. Based on the assumption that each of the land use scenarios has a realistic chance of occurrence, the probability of the actual occurrence of a particular deficiency can be estimated from the frequency of occurrence under each of the land use scenarios. Those probabilities, together with an assessment of the severity and urgency of each potential transportation network deficiency or problem area, constituted the basic input to the evaluation of the priorities for future transportation requirements.

7.2 ESTIMATION OF DEMAND AND CAPACITY

The assessment of future transportation requirements was accomplished by comparing alternative travel demand patterns under each land use scenario with the available capacities on the 1981 existing and committed networks. A set of cordons and screenlines was utilized to estimate radial and crosstown work trip demand and capacity.

7.2.1 Estimation of Demand

The procedures and assumptions associated with the estimation of future travel demand have been expounded in Chapter 5; an overview of future travel demand patterns in both the presence and the absence of physical network constraints (by means of the capacity restrained and the straight line demand assignment techniques respectively) under the various land use scenarios has been presented in Chapter 6. The demand patterns employed in the demand and capacity analyses, described in this chapter,

were the desire line demand modified by the application of modal split relationships based on the 1981 existing and committed network.

The mPjor reason for employing the desire line demand assignment technique was to establish, so far as is practical, the "true" demand for travel. That is the demand that would be observed if the physical limitations imposed by the existing transportation network could be eliminated.

The modal split relationship for the desire line demand was established from a comparative evaluation of the characteristics of the 1981 existing and committed roadway and transit networks. This procedure was a satisfactory and economical method of deriving travel demands for transportation network design purposes in the absence of such network designs. By assuming the same modal split relationship as that existing under the 1981 existing and committed networks, an enormous amount of time was saved from the lengthy iterations that would have had to be performed in simulating these interactions.

7.2.2 Estimation of Capacity

The available capacity under the 1981 existing and committed networks was employed to evaluate the effectiveness of the network in accommodating the desired demand. The assumed roadway capacities are included in Table 7.1. These capacities assumed an auto occupancy factor of 1.16 persons per vehicle, as well as optimum roadway operating conditions. A standard signalized arterial road was assumed to carry a maximum of 1000 persons per lane per hour, and this maximum capacity was assumed to double for a controlled access freeway.

Capacities for radial roadway facilities for the inbound direction across each cordon within each sector are summarized in Table 7.2. Capacities for crosstown ring roads for both directions across the eight screen lines for each cordon are summarized in Table 7.3.

TABLE 7.1 ROADWAY CAPACITY ASSUMPTIONS

TYPE OF ROAD

PERSON PER HOUR PER LANE*

EXAMPLE

GRAVEL ROAD

500

23 Ave. West of Calgary Trail

MINOR ARTERIAL

750

132 Ave., 97 St. to 127 St.

SIGNALIZED ARTERIAL

1,000

97 Street

EXPRESSWAY

1 ,500

Groat Road South of 107 Avenue

FREEWAY

2,000

Capilano Freeway

* A 1.16 auto occupancy factor is assumed.

TABLE 7.1

TABLE:T.2 EXISTING AND COMMITTED ROADWAY NETWORK CAPACITY - RADIAL INBOUND TO THE CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT

CORDON

SECTOR CENTRAL AREA

FRINGE

INNER SUBURBS

OUTLYING AREAS

EAST 1

6,500

5,000

7,000*

SOUTHEAST 2

2,000

6,500

12,000*

11,000

SOUTHWEST 3

2,000

6,000

7,000

8,500

NORTHWEST WEST 4

2,000

8,000

SOUTHWEST WEST 5

4,500

8,000

6,000

NORTHWEST 6

2,000

5,000

10,000

9,000

NORTH 7

6,000

12,000*

4,000

6,000

NORTHEAST 8

6,500

6,000

10,000

11,000

31,500

48,500*

58,000*

71,500*

TOTAL

12,000*

TABLE 7.2

TABLE 7.3 SCREENLINE CAPACITIES EXISTING AND COMMITTED ROADWAY NETWORK

SUBURBS

OUTLYING AREAS

SCREEN LINE TOTAL

BETWEEN CORDONS SCREEN LINE

FRINGE

INNER SUBURBS

EAST 1

1,000

8,000

4,750

4,250

18,000

SOUTHEAST 2

2,500

3,000

4,500

2,500

12,500

SOUTHWEST 3

3,000

1,000

6,000cw 4,000ccw

10,000 8,000

NORTHWEST WEST 4

2,500

4,o00

5,000

14,000

SOUTHWEST WEST 5

7,000cw 8,000ccw

3,000

4,000

6,000

20,000 21,000

NORTHWEST 6

5,500

6,000

5,500

3,000

20,000

NORTH 7

6,500

5,000

4,000

20,500

NORTHEAST 8

2,000

6,000

3,000cw 2,000ccw

14,000cw 12,000ccw

cw - CLOCKWISE MOVEMENT ccw - COUNTER CLOCKWISE MOVEMENT

TABLE 7.3

For transit capacities, it was difficult to assign specific values since the supply of transit capacity can easily be modified to serve demand. Therefore, it was decided to identify locations in which transit demand exceeded 3,000 person trips per hour. This demand level was considered to be the threshold at which major transit facilities, such as bus lanes or LRT links, may become viable, especially when the supply of roadway capacity is restricted, undesirable or unavailable. As a result, the subsequent analysis pertaining to transit demand was limited to corridors in which the demand level exceeded 3,000 transit trips per hour.

7.3 RADIAL TRANSIT DEMAND ANALYSIS

7.3.1 General Remarks

A demand exceeding 3,000 transit trips per hour was considered to be a significant movement of people for transit- This demand level was usually found on radial routes rather than on crosstown routes. Table 6.2 (Chapter 6) reveals that the modal share for transit for radial trips was forecast to lie between 36% and 41%, whereas the modal share for transit for crosstown trips was expected to lie between 14 and 16%. The relatively low crosstown demand for transit reflected the difficulty of providing efficient and effective public transit, the high accessibility of the private auto for such trips and the lower concentration of employment opportunities in the outlying industrial and commercial areas. It was recognized that radial transit demand to areas of concentrated employment, such as the Central Business District and the Central Business District fringe, can best be accommodated by efficient and effective transit priority measures or LRT facilities, especially when transit demand exceeds the economic threshold for conventional bus operations. The demand analyses presented in the following sections concentrate on radial transit demand in the inbound direction. Equivalent measures are also required, of course, for the outbound direction in the afternoon peak period.

The radial transit demand forecasts can be seen for the alternative land use scenarios on Figures 7.1 - 7.8 inclusive.

It can be seen that several sectors of the city generate demand levels in the 3000 - 4000 pph range in the long teLa. These sectors either individually or combined, offer the potential ridership levels appropriate to higher capacity transit modes.

Further detailed description of the radial transit demand forecasts is given in the Appendix.

7.4 AUTO DEMAND AND CAPACITY ANALYSIS

7.4.1 General Remarks

The auto trip tables generated for the various land use scenarios based on the 1981 existing and committed roadway and transit networks were utilized, along with the available roadway capacities described in Tables 7.2 and 7.3, to calculate the difference between the desire line demand and the available capacity across each screenline and cordon. These demand/capacity differences are presented graphically in Figures 7.9 - 7.16 inclusive. Deficiencies or excesses of capacity and demand are expressed by the number of signalized arterial lanes required to balance capacity and demand. Each arterial lane was assumed to carry 1,000 person-trips per hour under ideal operational conditions. In addition, non-work trips were excluded from the demand estimates, therefore, this assumption represented optimistic circumstances, and was interpreted with discretion.

A general tendency for longer crosstown trips to pass close to the Central Business District was expected on the basis of the straight line demand patterns. These trips could best be accommodated by providing a system of crosstown ring routes to divert these longer non-radial trips to alternative routes, which do not compete for road space with Central Business District oriented radial trips. Hence, the pressure on the

58 s

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FIGURE 7.2

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FIGURE 7.3 1986 A

FIGURE 7.4

VOLUMES (X 100)

ransportationSystem Pap= RADIAL TRANSIT DEMAND INBOUND TO THE CENTRAL

@Manton BUSINESS DISTRICT ON THE EX1S7

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trans ortation system plan

1991 A

transportation system plan

FIGURES 7.1-7.4

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FIGURE 7.1

59 trans ortation s stem plan

2001A

FIGURE 7.8

2001 I VOLUMES (X 100)

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RADIAL TRANSIT DEMAND INBOUND TO THE CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT ON THE EXISTING AND

FIGURES 7.5-7.8

COMMITTED NETWORK s • ortation s stem P1ar77Tralis- orfation system plan

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1981 D

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1986A

milliTansportationSystem

FIGURE 7.12 1991 A

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FIGURE 7.13

1991 E

FIGURE 7.14

1991 F

111

FIGURE 7.15 2001 A

agystem Imimmransportation,

FIGURE 7.16 2001 I

@iliontonRADIAL AUTO CAPACITY MINUS DEMAND INBOUND TO THE CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT ON THE EXISTING AND COMMITTED NETWORK ortation system' an-7 Vatit

n syslem plan

transportation system plan

FIGURES 7.13-7.16

Central Business District fringe areas may be lessened by this prospective reduction in non-radial trips. A detailed analysis of nonradial movement is covered later.

The auto demand and capacity analysis was subdivided into the following components for ease of analysis:

- radial trips

- crosstown trips

- river crossings

The detailed statistical information resulting from these analyses is presented in the Appendix. It indicates the deficiencies likely to be experienced within the planning period in terms of the number of arterial lanes deficient (or surplus) for each land use scenario. It also comprised the basic input to the following section of this study.

7.5 FUTURE TRANSPORTATION REQUIREMENTS

7.5.1 General Remarks

The demand and capacity analyses presented in the preceeding sections provided a basic understanding of the possible future transportation problems in Edmonton over the next 20 years. As a final step, the preliminary, relative priorities of future transportation requirements were determined based on the probability of occurrence under the various land use scenarios as well as the urgency and severity of each of the potential problems.

7.5.2 Radial Transit Priorities

Transit priority measures and light rail transit facilities might be justified when transit demand exceeded the threshold of 3,000 pph,

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FIGURE 7.17

REPRESENTING RIVER CROSSINGS

s • aviation system plan

trans • ortation system plan

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transportation s stem plan

subject to the usual cost-effectiveness and other relevent criteria. Figure 7.18 highlights the year and scenario in which transit volumes first exceeded 3,000 pph. Significant demand for transit was found in sectors containing the outlying suburbs, such as Millwoods, Clareview Castle Downs, West Jasper Place, Riverbend and Terwillegar. The areas with the highest priority for transit improvment were the University, Queen Mary Park, NAIT and the western Central Business District fringe. The areas with the second highest priority were the west end corridor, Northgate, Castle Downs and Millwoods.

7.5.3 Crosstown Auto Priorities

Figure 7.19 summarizes the demand and capacity analyses for the nonradial fringe and crosstown trips. The areas with the highest priority for transportation improvement were the southwest fringe (near the University), the northwest fringe (near Westmount), the northeast fringe (near the Coliseum), and the southeast fringe (near Bonnie Doon). The areas having the second highest priority for improvement were the western fringe and outer areas, and the southeastern and the northeastern outer areas.

The demand and capacity analysis for river crossings outside the Central Business District also revealed that priority for increasing river crossing capacity should be given to Groat Bridge, Capilano Bridge and Quesnell Bridge, listed in order of importance. These bridges are critical links in the ring route system and should be reviewed in conjunction with the ring route improvement priorities.

7.5.4 Radial Auto Priorities

In the demand and capacity analysis of radial auto trips destined to the Central area, six out of the eight sectors were projected to become capacity-deficient during the various stages of the planning horizon. The deficiencies were caused by growth, within the city in outlying areas such as Millwoods, Castle Downs, Clareview, Pilot Sound, West

Jasper Place, Kaskitayo, Riverbend and Terwillegar, as well as growth external to the city in the surrounding communities such as Sherwood Park and St. Albert. Figure 7.20 highlights the sectors and the year in which radial auto demand first exceeded the available roadway capacity.

Based on the demand and capacity analyses, the sectors with the highest priority for radial improvement were in the west end, and south of the Central Business District, between cordon 1 and 3. The next set of priorities were the access from the north across the CNR tracks, from the east across the North Saskatchewan River and from the southwest. The last group of radial improvements were from the northwest and northeast.

7.6 CONCLUDING STATEMENTS ON TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTS AND FUTURE TRANSPORTATION REQUIREMENTS

Demand forecasts based on different network assumptions will be different from those indicated above and this may well result in different transportation requirements and priorities. This aspect of the transportation planning process is addressed fully in subsequent Trans plan documents.

66 trans ortation s stem Ian

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FIGURE 7.18

INBOUND DEMAND FIRST EXCEEDS 3000 pph. trans • ortation system plan

trans • ortation system plan

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TECHNICAL APPENDIX

Al A2.0 INTRODUCTION

This appendix is intended to augment the information provided in the main body of the report by adding detailed technical information on the basic data inputs, the techniques used and the results of the analyses undertaken.

A2.1 STRUCTURE OF THIS APPENDIX

The appendix does not repeat the text of the report but for ease of reference, the sections in both the main body of the report and the appendix which deal with a particular topic are similarly labelled. Eg., Sections 3.0 and A3.0 deal with land use alternatives in the body and the appendix respectively.

Section 1.0 of the report's main body presents the Summary. In that this is not elaborated here, the Appendix numbering commences with Section A2.0

In this Section, the discussion of the approach, scope and limitations of the study report is augmented.

Additional details of the alternative land use scenarios are discussed and detailed comparisons are presented in Section A3.

Section A4 further documents the key elements and underlying assumptions associated with the existing and committed roadway and transit networks* used in this study.

Details of the travel demand forecasting process are presented in Section A5.

Section A6 presents further details of future travel demand under the various land use scenarios.

A.2

Finally, supportive information on the assessment of future transportation demand is contained in Section A7.

A2.2 OBJECTIVES OF THIS REPORT

The objectives of this report are identified in Section 2.2.

A2.3 APPROACH

The discussion of the technical approach is further detailed as follows.

A2.3.1 Alternative Land Use Scenarios

The enoLmous growth that Edmonton and its surrounding areas has experienced since the Second World War is projected to continue during the planning horizon, stimulated by major energy project developments in Northern Alberta. Previous experiences in forecasting future land use patterns for the Edmonton area reveal that long range projections generally lack precision in the key areas of overall population and employment forecasts and in their spatial distribution. This is largely due to uncertainties in the economy in general, and the development sector in particular.

The approach taken was to develop a set of alternative land use scenarios. Each scenario describes the land use patterns for Edmonton and the surrounding region that might appear at different stages over the planning horizon under different land use development strategies and contingent economic conditions.

A2.3.2 Forecasting Future Demand

The peak hour home-to-work travel demand associated with each of the land use scenarios was estimated for the years 1981, 1986, 1991 and 2001 using the Transportation Systems Design Department's transportation modeling system, which is a variation of the Urban Transportation Planning System developed by the United States Government.

A3 The distribution of these peak hour work trips between all origins and destinations, and the division of total trips into the available travel modes, was made on the basis of automobile and transit travel times that would prevail on the existing and committed networks. From this process, deficiencies and strengths in the existing and committed transportation networks under different development strategies and various future land use configurations were identified.

A2.3.3 Ranking of Deficiencies

Given that each of the alternative land use strategies considered in the analysis has a realistic chance of occurrence, the higher the frequency of observation in the transportation modelling process of a particular deficiency or excessive demand (in terms of future travel demand compared with existing and committed capacity) was equated with the greater probability of its actual occurrence.

This premise, later formed the basic input to the evaluation of the priorities of transportation infrastructure improvements in the recommended long-range roadway and transit networks, as documented in the report entitled "The Recommended Strategy".

A2.4 SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS

The modelling process was designed to estimate morning peak hour work trips.

The scope of the report is described in Section 2.4 and the major limitations of this process of future demand assessment may be summarized as follows:

- the Study Area - the Zonal System (including land use data for external areas) - reliance on Morning Peak Hour Work Trips - roadway Congestion and Transit Travel Time.

The implications of these factors are discussed in the following sections of the report.

A2.4.1 The Study Area

The Edmonton sub-region was used as the study area but in almost all analysis, the emphasis was placed on the area within the Restricted Development Area and most of the conclusions and recommendations are limited to this area.

A2.4.2 Limitations of the Zonal System

The traffic analysis zones used in this study illustrate the different emphasis placed on various parts of the study area; some 350 zones were used to analyze the area within the city boundaries whereas only 8 zones were used for the remainder of the sub-region. Figures 2.2 and 2.3 show the study area sub-divided into these zones. This zonal system represents the level of disaggregation of available land use, demographic and economic base data. Furthermore, it reflects the degree of control over transportation facilities within the study area by the City of Edmonton.

The major limitation of this system of traffic analysis zones is that it did not allow precise geographic representation of population and employment in the eight zones external to the city. This was due largely to the fact that satisfactory land use data and forecasts of both population and employment proved impossible to obtain at the required time. The use of this study to assess transportation requirements outside of the 1979 city boundaries is therefore precluded.

A5 From the City of Edmonton viewpoint, this limitation has insignificant consequences, as the zone system was specifically designed to reflect as accurately as possible the impacts of internal travel demands on Edmonton. These external zones are substantially larger than internal zones, but in general exert travel demands within the city of similar magnitude to those exerted by the physically smaller internal traffic zones.

A2.4.3 Reliance on Morning Peak Hour Work Trips to Estimate Demands

Total travel demand is comprised of work trips, school trips, shopping trips, business trips, medical trips, social and other trips. Each type of trip places varying demands on the transportation system and the peak demand for each trip purpose may occur at a different time period of the day. Consequently, there are considerable variations in travel demand during the different time periods of the day. In addition, travel demand also varies from weekday to weekend and from one season to another.

In Edmonton, approximately 80 per cent of all automobile trips and close to 100 percent of all transit trips that occur during the morning peak hour are work trips. Also, the morning peak hour traffic and transit volumes will be exceeded only 10 percent of the time during an average weekday.

The base data for this study was collected over several weeks in the Spring of 1971, representing average conditions over this period. Traffic count data suggests that two to four months of the year (depending on the year studies) exhibit higher average traffic flows than the April/May period used here. The April/May a.m. peak hour does not represent a "peak of peaks" but rather a reasonable design level for demand forecasting.

In addition, it is important to note that the study generates travel demand and in this and subsequent reports this travel demand is subdivided into auto and transit demands.

A.6

It is concluded therefore that the projected morning peak hour travel demand is an appropriate basis for the design of transportation facilities and work trips. These are the most habitual (ie. predictable) of all trips, providing a convenient and satisfactory medium for the prediction of peak hour travel demand. The transportation modelling system was designed to estimate morning peak hour vehicular work trips for the average weekday. This criterion for establishing the "design load" on the transport system offers an economic and efficient method of identifying future transportation infrastructure and service requirements.

A2.4.4 Roadway Congestion and Transit Travel Time

Various components of the transportation modeling system make use of invehicle transit travel times to perform their respective tasks. In reality, in-vehicle transit times are affected by roadway congestion in situations where transit vehicles share the right-of-way with other vehicular traffic. This interaction between auto and transit was not fully taken into account at this stage of the simulation process when estimating future transit travel characteristics, since in-vehicle transit travel times were input to the system and were manually estimated based on the then existing schedules. It was assumed for analytical purposes that the roadway level of service provided to transit vehicles would remain constant at its then present level. This may well have resulted in slight overestimation of transit ridership. However, the introduction of transit priority measures and other factors which are beyond the scope of this macro-modelling process may compensate for the above noted effect.

A7 A3.0 LAND USE ALTERNATIVES

A3.1 INTRODUCTION

Previous experiences in forecasting future land use patterns for the Edmonton sub-region reveal that long range projections can seldom be made with great accuracy. This is largely due to the high degree of uncertainty and variability of the many inter-related factors impinging on the urban development process.

In order to provide a range of land use scenarios, both the Transportation System Plan Team of the Transportation Systems Design Department and the General Municipal Team of the Planning Department developed alternative land use scenarios. These land use scenarios represented different growth strategies, which resulted in different hypothetical growth patterns within the Edmonton sub-region. The differences between these growth patterns are to be found in the different assumptions and forecasts regarding the density, distribution and overall levels of population and employment opportunities within the study area over the period between 1981 and 2001.

A3.2 GENERAL MUNICIPAL PLAN LAND USE SCENARIOS

Scenario D was defined for the years 1981, 1986 and 1991. The 1981 configuration also served as a base point for Scenarios E and F, which were defined for 1986 and 1991. A few configurations of these scenarios were omitted from the transportation analyses, because of time and cost constraints, and because of their similarity to other scenarios which were examined in detail. A summary of the land use scenarios used in this study is presented in Table 3.1.

A3.2.1 Population and Employment Projections

Population and employment projections for the Edmonton sub-region employed by Scenarios D, E and F are illustrated graphically in Figures 3.1 and 3.2 respectively in Section 3.2.1.

TABLE 3.1 SUMMARY OF LAND USE SCENARIOS USED IN THE TRANSPORTATION ANALYSES

SCENARIO/DATE

1981

1986

1991

2001

A (TSP)

Used

D (GMP)

Used

Not used

Not available

E (GMP)

Same as 11r

Not used

Used

Not available

Same as iv!

Not used

Used

Not available

not avail.

Not avail. Not avil.

F (GMP)

I (TSP)

Used

TABLE 3.1

A9 Detailed population and employment estimates on a traffic zone basis for each scenario are provided here. The zone system used for this discussion is shown on Figure 3.5.

A3.2.2 Scenario D

Scenario D represented a compact growth development strategy which sought to:

- maximize the utilization of scarce urban land resources by encouraging higher density suburban development

- encourage the redevelopment of the inner city

- achieve better control over the timing of future suburban developments

- secure the decentralization of some office space away from the downtown and development of multi-purpose centres around existing and future light rail transit stations.

Land use configurations for Scenario D were defined for 1981, 1986 and 1991. Only the 1981 configuration was employed in this study, and it also served as a common base for Scenarios E and F described below.

Scenario D assumed a sub-regional population of 692,000 by 1981 which represented an increase of 96,000 over 1976. About two-thirds of this growth was expected to occur in the City of Edmonton with the remainder being distributed to the surrounding communities. Sherwood Park, St. Albert, Fort Saskatchewan and Leduc were projected to absorb more than three-quarters of the population growth external to the city. The City of Edmonton was expected to experience a net loss of people from the inner city communities, with a significant population increase in the outlying suburbs, largely due to migration from the inner city and new population growth. The level and distribution of population and employment for the City of Edmonton are presented in Table 3.5.

A10

Under Scenario D, the sub-region employment level would rise to 277,000 by 1981, an increase of approximately 45,000 over 1976. About 60% of these employment opportunities were expected to locate with the City of Edmonton, raising its employment level to 236,000. A concentration of employment especially in the downtown area would give rise to a strong and viable Central Business District (Table 3.5).

A3.2.3 Scenario E

Scenario E represented a development strategy which envisaged a continuation of the current development trends observed prior to 1979. This growth strategy attempted to:

- maintain the existing density of suburban development

- encourage moderate housing development in the downtown but to limit inner city redevelopment

- maintain the vitality and viability of the downtown as the major employment centre

- decentralize some commercial and business activities around transportation nodes, commercial strips and light industrial areas

- encourage and provide land for light and medium industries.

Land use configurations for this scenario were defined for 1986 and 1991. The 1991 configuration was employed in the transportation analyses.

Scenario E assumed a sub-regional population of 868,000 by 1991 which represented an increase of 176,000 over 1981. The City of Edmonton was expected to accommodate 44% of the sub-regional population growth with the remaining 56% being distributed in the surrounding communities. This scenario assumed that the surrounding communities would have a larger share of the population growth than Scenario D. Scenario E also assumed

All

TABLE 3.5 1981 LAND USE SCENARIO D

NO.

ZONE DESCRIPTION

POPULATION

EMPLOYMENT

CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT

7,200

81,400

UNIVERSITY - STRATHCONA

9,900

24,800

OLIVER

25,800

13,400

STADIUM

15,500

15,300

BONNIE DOON

8,300

1,100

CAPILANO - OTTEWELL

38,600

7,000

RITCHIE -AV0NMORE-S.E.INDUST. AREA

20,900

12,000

MILLWOODS - S. INDUSTRIAL AREA

48,400

4,800

SOUTHGATE - RIVERBEND

39,700

10,700

DUGGAN - KASKITAYO - BLUE QUILL

28,000

1,700

JASPER PLACE

20,300

800

W.JASPER PL. - PRIMROSE - THORNCLI=F

48,800

4,100

WEST END

16,500

2,800

N.W. INDUSTRIAL AREA

7,400

6,200

WESTMOUNT - WELLINGTON

31,700

16,300

N.W. EDMONTON

800

NORWOOD - NORTHGATE

38,800

19,400

CASTLEDOWNS - LAKE DISTRICT

35,700

2,700

HIGHLAND - BEVERLY

55,400

10,200

CLAREVIEW - PILOT SOUND

28,800

525,600

235,400

TOTAL * * NOTE - TOTAL MAY NOT ADD DUE TO "ROUNDING"

TABLE 3.5

Al2

a continuing migration of inner city residents to the outlying residential areas. This migration was projected to be about 18% of the total subregional growth expected to occur between 1981 and 1991. The outlying suburbs hence would have to accommodate a combined total of about 110,000 persons in the ten year period. Table 3.6 presents 1991 population and employment estimates by zone for Scenario E.

During the same period, about two-thirds of the sub-regional employment growth was anticipated to be located within Edmonton's boundaries, with about one-third expected in the downtown area. The importance of the downtown core as the hub of business and commercial activities was very evident in this forecast.

A3.2.4 Scenario F

Scenario F represented a concentrated growth development strategy which attempted to:

- concentrate residential and non-residential development around growth nodes by increasing residential density in the suburbs

- encourage inner city and downtown redevelopment

- decentralize office development to transportation nodes, industrial areas, town centres and commercial strips

- provide industrial land for light and medium density industries.

Land use configurations for this scenario were defined for 1986 and 1991. In this study, only the 1991 land use configuration was utilized.

Similar to Scenario E, this scenario also assumed an increase of 176,000 persons in the Edmonton sub-region between 1981 and 1991. However, the City of Edmonton was expected to attract a larger share of the population growth (62%). In addition, a marginal migration (3%) of residents from

TABLE 3.6

Al3

1991 LAND USE SCENARIO E

NO.

ZONE DESCRIPTION

POPULATION

EMPLOYMENT

CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT

7,200

106,700

UNIVERSITY - STRATHCONA

9,400

23,300

OLIVER

22,600

13,200

STADIUM

17,400

15,300

BONNIE DOON

7,700

1,000

CAPILANO - OTTEWELL

30,900

8,100

RITCHIE-AVONMORE-S.E. INDUST.AREA

17,600

17,700

MILLWOODS - S. INDUSTRIAL AREA

80,200

12,100

SOUTHGATE - RIVERBEND

36,400

10,300

DUGGAN - KASKITAYO - BLUE QUILL

46,100

2,400

JASPER PLACE

16,400

800

W.JASPER PL. - PRIMROSE- THORNCLIF=

70,400

5,200

WEST END

13,600

2.600

N.W. INDUSTRIAL AREA

6,300

10,500

WESTMOUNT - WELLINGTON

28,200

16,100

N.W. EDMONTON

1,600

NORWOOD - NORTHGATE

35,300

18,500

CASTLEDOWNS - LAKE DISTRICT

65,600

3,000

HIGHLAND - BEVERLY

50,800

11,500

CLAREVIEW - PILOT SOUND

41,600

1,400

603,600

281,300

TOTAL

* NOTE - TOTAL MAY NOT ADD DUE TO "ROUNDING"

TABLE 3.6

Al4

the inner city areas was assumed. The level and distribution of population and employment for Scenario F are presented in Table 3.7.

The City of Edmonton was also expected to attract a larger share of the sub-regional employment growth when compared with Scenario E. About four-fifths of the employment growth in the Edmonton sub-region was expected to occur within the city boundaries, and about one-quarter of this growth was assumed to be located in the Central Business District. This development strategy implied that somewhat less emphasis would be placed on the downtown as a growth centre for new jobs but the outer areas (especially in and around specific growth nodes) would be relatively stronger when compared with Scenario E.

A3.3 TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM PLAN LAND USE SCENARIOS

Land use configurations for Scenario A were defined for the years 1981, 1986, 1991 and 2001. All these land use configurations were employed extensively in the transportation analyses. The land use pattern for Scenario I was defined and used for the year 2001 only. A summary of the availability and usage for these scenarios can be found in Table 3.1.

A3.3.1 Population and Employment Projections

Regional population and employment projections are given in Section 3.3.1. Detailed population and employment forecasts on a traffic zone basis for each scenario are provided here.

A3.3.2 Scenario A

Scenario A represented a development option which assumed the continuation of the development trends of the last 10 - 15 years. This scenario was defined for the years 1981, 1986, 1991 and 2001. These land use configurations were employed extensively in subsequent transportation analyses.

A15

TABLE 3.7 1991 LAND USE SCENARIO F

NO.

ZONE DESCRIPTION

CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT

POPULATION

EMPLOYMENT

9,500

97,800

UNIVERSITY - STRATHCONA

10,100

24,900

OLIVER

25,300

14,000

STADIUM

16,600

15,200

BONNIE DOON

8,200

1,100

CAPILANO - OTTEWELL

34,000

8,900

RITCHIE-AVONMORE-S.E. INDUST.AREA

20,400

21,400

MILLWOODS - S. INDUSTRIAL AREA

83,400

14,500

SOUTHGATE - RIVERBEND

42,700

11,000

DUGGAN - KASKITAYO - RLUE QUILL

46,000

2,100

JASPER PLACE

18,000

800

W.JASPER PL. - PRIMROSE - THORNCLI F

68,900

5,100

WEST END

15,800

2,800

N.W. INDUSTRIAL AREA

7,400

13,200

WESTMOUNT - WELLINGTON

29,800

17,500

N.W. EDMONTON

1,700

NORWOOD - NORTHGATE

37,800

20,000

CASTLEDOWNS - LAKE DISTRICT

62,500

3,400

HIGHLAND - BEVERLY

57,200

13,600

CLAREVIEW - PILOT SOUND

42,600

800

636,200

289,800

TOTAL * NOTE - TOTAL MAY NOT ADD DUE TO "ROUNDING"

TABLE 3.7

A16

Scenario A assumed a sub-regional population of 960,000 in 2001, which implies an annual growth of 2% from 1976. The City of Edmonton was forecast to absorb 68% of the expected population growth in the Edmonton sub-region. Migration from the inner city areas was anticipated to be stabilized after 1981, and population growth allocated to the city would occur mainly in the suburbs, such as Millwoods, Kaskitayo, Riverbend and Terwillegar, West Jasper Place, Castle Downs and Clareview. The level and distribution of population for the years 1981, 1986, 1991 and 2001 are presented in Tables 3.11, 3.12, 3.13 and 3.14 respectively.

Sub-regional employment was assumed to be about 390,000 at the beginning of the 21st Century. About one-fifth of the employment growth was expected to occur in the areas outside the City of Edmonton. The Central Business District would receive about one-fifth of these new employment opportunities, with the remaining three-fifths allocated to the remaining areas of the city - areas such as the Central Business District fringe, industrial areas, shopping centres and in growth nodes near major transportation centres and LRT stations. Employment estimates for Scenario A are presented in Tables 3.11, 3.12, 3.13 and 3.14.

A3.3.3 Scenario I

Scenario I was prepared to represent a development trend of extreme employment decentralization resulting from increasing central area land costs. This scenario was developed to be used along with Scenario A to indicate a range of development options that may occur in the distant future. The land use configuration defined by this scenario was thought to be somewhat extreme, representing the "worst case" development trend. A land use configuration for this scenario was defined for the year 2001 only and was employed in the transportation analyses in the absence of other land use configurations for the year 2001 by the General Municipal Plan Team at the time of the study. Scenario I employed identical population and employment projections assumed for Scenario A. The 2001 sub-regional population and employment were 960,000 and 390,000 respectively.

TABLE 3.11 1981 LAND USE SCENARIO A

NO.

ZONE DESCRIPTION

CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT

POPULATION

EMPLOYMENT

6,800

69,400

UNIVERSITY - STRATHCONA

12,700

25,700

OLIVER

25,700

12,000

STADIUM

16,100

13,200

BONNIE DOON

9,300

1,100

CAPILANO - OTTEWELL

36,800

5,800

RITCHIE-AVONMORE-S.E. INDUST.AREA

18,800

14,700

MILLWOODS - S. INDUSTRIAL AREA

39,100

8,100

SOUTHGATE - R1VERBEND

43,400

10,000

DUGGAN - KASKITAYO - BLUE QUILL

32,700

2,600

JASPER PLACE

21,111

800

W. JAPSER PL.-PRIMROSE-THORNCLIFF

45,600

5,700

WEST END

16,900

2,200

N.W. INDUSTRIAL AREA

7,800

6,800

WESTMOUNT - WELLINnTON

29,400

15,100

N.W. EDMONTON

900

NORWOOD - NORTHGATE

37,400

19,800

CASTLEDOWNS - LAKE DISTRICT

41,900

4,400

HIGHLAND - BEVERLY

49,900

10,600

CLAREVIEW - PILOT SOUND

27,400

2,100

518,900

231,200

TOTAL

* NOTE - TOTAL MAY NOT ADD DUE TO "ROUNDING"

TABLE 3.11

A18

TABLE 3.12 1986 LAND USE SCENARIO A

NO.

ZONE DESCRIPTION

CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT

POPULATION

EMPLOYMENT

6,800

76,300

UNIVERSITY - STRATHCONA

12,700

25,200

OLIVER

25,700

13,400

STADIUM

16,100

14,900

BONNIE DOON

9,300

1,200

CAPILANO - OTTEWELL

36,800

6,300

RITCHIE-AVONMORE-S.E. INDUST.AREA

18,800

15,500

MILLWOODS - S. INDUSTRIAL AREA

59,200

10,700

SOUTHGATE - RIVERBENO

43,400

11,700

DUGGAN - KASKITAYO - BLUE QUILL

43,900

4,700

JASPER PLACE

21,111

800

W.JASPER PL. - PRIMROSE - THORNCLI=F

57,000

8,800

WEST END

16,900

2,200

N.W. INDUSTRIAL AREA

7,800

10,100

WESTMOUNT - WELLINGTON

29,400

15,600

N.W. EDMONTON

1,700

NORWOOD - NORTHGATE

37,400

20,100

CASTLEDOWNS - LAKE DISTRICT

51,100

4,400

HIGHLAND - BEVERLY

49,900

10,900

CLAREVIEW - PILOT SOUND

36,100

3,200

579,500

257,800

TOTAL * NOTE - TOTAL MAY NOT ADD DUE TO "ROUNDING"

TABLE 3.12

A19

14U3LE 3.13 1991 LAND USESCENARIO A

NO.

ZONE DESCRIPTION

CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT

POPULATION

EMPLOYMENT

6,800

76,000

UNIVERSITY - STRATHCONA

12,700

24,400

OLIVER

25,700

14,500

STADIUM

16,100

15,300

BONNIE DOON

9,300

1,600

CAPILANO - OTTEWELL

36,800

9,300

RITCHIE-AVONMORE-S.E. INDUST.AREA

18,800

16,900

MILLWOODS - S. INDUSTRIAL AREA

65,800

13,600

SOUTHGATE - RIVERBEND

43,400

14,000

DUGGAN - KASKITAY0 - BLUE QUILL

54,900

5,400

JASPER PLACE

21,111

900

W.JASPER PL. - PRIMROSE - THORNCLITF

63,000

9,100

WEST END

16,900

2,500

N.W. INDUSTRIAL AREA

7,800

14,300

WESTMOUNT - WELLINcITON

29,400

16,100

N.W. EDMONTON

2,000

NORWOOD - NORTHGATE

37,100

20,400

CASTLEDOWNS - LAKE DISTRICT

57,600

4,500

HIGHLAND - BEVERLY

50,000

12,500

CLAREVIEW - PILOT SOUND

40,200

4,100

613,400

277,200

TOTAL

* NOTE - TOTAL MAY NOT ADD DUE TO "ROUNDING"

TABLE 3.13

AZ 0

TABLE 3.14 2001 LAND USE SCENARIO A

NO.

ZONE DESCRIPTION

POPULATION

EMPLOYMENT

6,800

81,000

UNIVERSITY - STRATHCONA

12,700

24,700

OLIVER

25,700

17,300

STADIUM

16,100

17,300

BONNIE DOON

9,300

2,400

CAPILANO - OTTEWELL

36,800

13,900

RITCHIE-AVONMORE-S.E.INDUST.AREA

18,800

20,000

MILLWOODS - S. INDUSTRIAL AREA

89,200

18,900

SOUTHGATE - RIVERBEND

43,400

16,800

DUGGAN - KASKITAYO - BLUE QUILL

73,100

8,400

JASPER PLACE

21,100

900

W.JASPER PL. - PRIMROSE - THORNCLIO

82,600

10,100

WEST END

16,900

2,900

N.W. INDUSTRIAL AREA

7,800

19,000

WESTMOUNT - WELLINGTON

29,400

17,100

N.W. EDMONTON

4,400

NORWOOD - NORTHGATE

37,100

20,500

CASTLEDOWNS - LAKE DISTRICT

7Q ,300

6,400

HIGHLAND - BEVERLY

50,000

15,000

CLAREVIEW - PILOT SOUND

55,400

5,800

711,300

322,900

CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT

TOTAL * NOTE - TOTAL MAY NOT ADD DUE TO "ROUNDING"

TAB LE 3.14

A21 This scenario assumed 30% of the sub-regional population growth after 1981 would occur outside the city. Of. the 70% allocated to the City of Edmonton, the inner city was expected to received 13% and the remaining 57% was distributed to the suburbs. This scenario assumed a strong inner city growth in future years, which would be contrary to the trend that prevailed in the 1970's. Experiences in other major cities suggested that some reversal of that trend may well develop "naturally" and would be encouraged by relevant land use policies and plans.

The City of Edmonton was expected to attract 80% of the employment growth between 1981 and 2001. The Central Business District was expected to receive 12% of the employment growth. This scenario assumed a decentralization of employment away from the downtown core to areas such as the Central Business District fringe, industrial areas, shopping centres and other designated growth nodes. Employment and population estimates for the year 2001 by zone are presented in Table 3.15 and Appendix 3.

A3.4 COMPARISON OF LAND USE SCENARIOS

A set of alternative land use scenarios was employed in the estimation of future travel demand. The ranges defined by these scenarios sought to minimize the impacts of the uncertainties associated with the prediction of future land uses and travel demands. It was anticipated that the actual future land use pattern and travel demand would fall within the range defined. The comparisons presented in the following sections portray the range of population and employment projections defined by these scenarios, in order to demonstrate the degree of variation that was taken into consideration in the transportation analyses.

A3.4.1 Population Projections

The annual population growth rate assumed by the the General Municipal Plan scenarios was 2.25%, as compared to 2% employed by Transportation System Plan scenarios. The two different growth rates resulted in

A22

TABLE 3.15 2001 LAND USE SCENARIO I

ZONE DESCRIPTION

NO.

POPULATION

EMPLOYMENT

CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT

16,000

78,000

UNIVERSITY - STRATHCONA

13,600

25,100

OLIVER

28,700

18,800

STADIUM

23,600

13,300

BONNIE DOON

14,300

5,300

CAPILANO - OTTEWELL

37,700

9,800

RITCHIE-AVONMORE-S.E. INDUST.AREA

23,200

27,400

MILLWOODS - S. INDUSTRIAL AREA

79,200

12,900

SOUTHGATE - RIVERBEND

43,300

28,500

DUGGAN - KASKITAYO - BLUE QUILL

67,500

4,900

JASPER PLACE

21,100

1,000

W.JASPER PL. - PRIMROSE-THORNCLIFF

73,200

10,000

WEST END

17,000

5,100

N.W. INDUSTRIAL AREA

10,200

19,700

WESTMOUNT - WELLINGTON

30,000

17,100

N.W. EDMONTON

4,500

NORWOOD - NORTHGATE

38,300

11,200

CASTLEDOWNS - LAKE DISTRICT

75,300

11,900

HIGHLAND - BEVERLY

55,300

CLAREVIEW - PILOT SOUND

49,000

TOTAL

716,500

14,600 5,100

324,300

* NOTE - TOTAL MAY NOT ADD DUE TO "ROUNDING"

TABLE 3.15

A23

different forecasts of population in future years. Figure 3.10 illustrates the population projections assumed by the Transportation System Plan (TSP) and the General Municipal Plan (GNP). The most significant difference between these two projections occurred in the year 2001. By this date, the General Municipal Plan projection assumed some 80,000 (9%) more residents than the Transportation System Plan projection. The 2001 target population was assumed to lie within the range defined by the Transportation System Plan and General Municipal Plan estimates. Recent population forecasts from the Alberta Bureau of Statistics indicate a much higher annual growth rate of 3.5% for the Edmonton subregion. This higher growth rate implies that the 2001 population projections employed by Transportation System Plan and General Municipal Plan might be attained in the early 1990's. This recent forecast would have serious implications on the implementation schedule of future transportation facilities. These would be required earlier than expected because of this accelerated population growth and would exert serious financial strain on the City and the Province. A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of accelerated growth trends will be dealt with in the development of the Ten Year Plan and Programme.

A3.4.2 Distribution of Population Each scenario assumed a different distribution of population in the Edmonton sub-region, as well as in the City of Edmonton. The comparisons presented below describe the range of population projections that were considered in the transportation analyses. A3.4.2.1 1981

Scenario A assumed 68% of the population growth that would occur in the Edmonton sub-region between 1976 and 1981 would be attracted to the city, while Scenario D assumed 66%. Both scenarios also assumed a moderate degree of migration of inner city residents to the suburbs.

A24 The population distribution for the City of Edmonton under Scenarios A and D is illustrated graphically in Figure 3.11. A map showing the location of each of these zones is presented in Figure 3.5. The most significant differences between these two scenarios occurred in the suburbs such as Millwoods (Zone 9), Kaskitayo (Zone 11), Castle Downs (Zone 19) and Clareview (Zone 21). Since all population growth was assumed to occur in the suburbs, the use of these ranges sought to minimize the impacts of the uncertainties in allocating growth to the suburbs.

A3.4.2.2 1991

Scenario E assumed 44% of the sub-regional population growth between 1981 and 1991 would occur in the City of Edmonton, while Scenario A assumed a much higher proportion of 68%. Scenario A assumed a stabilization of inner city population after 1981, while Scenario E expected a net loss of over 30,000 people from the inner city to the suburbs.

Figure 3.12 illustrates diagrammatically, the distribution of population by zone assumed by Scenarios A, E and F. Again, the suburbs, especially Millwoods, exhibited the widest range of population, however, the inner city areas also revealed a wide range when compared with the 1981 situation. This reflected the assumptions pertaining to inner city out-migration used by these scenarios.

A3.4.2.3 2001

Scenario A assumed 68% of the population increment expected in the Edmonton sub-region between 1991 and 2001 will be attracted to the City of Edmonton, while Scenario I assumed a slightly higher percentage of 70%. The inner city was assumed to be stabilized after 1981 under Scenario A. Scenario I, on the other hand, assumed a much stronger inner city in which 13% of the sub-regional population growth was located.

A25 s • ortation s stem plan transportation system plan

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The distribution of population for Scenarios A and I is depicted graphically in Figure 3.13. The inner city areas, especially the Central Business District and Central Business District fringe, exhibited a much wider range than that envisaged by other scenarios. This reflected the strong inner city assumption advanced by Scenario I.

A3.4.3 Employment Projections

Employment projections embodied in the General Municipal Plan and Transportation System Plan scenarios revealed a difference of about 35,000 jobs at the beginning of the 21st Century. This difference was of the order of 10% of the total employment level anticipated. Figure 3.14 depicts graphically the sets of employment forecasts employed by the General Municipal Plan and Transportation System Plan scenarios. The actual 2001 employment figure was anticipated to lie within these two employment projections.

The modified employment projections based on a particpation rate of 40% reflected the same trend as population, largely because employment projections were a direct derivative of population forecasts. The higher population growth rate discussed in 3.4.1 would significantly increase the number of employment opportunities required in the Edmonton sub-region, and this in turn would increase the demand for travel. In addition, the 40% participation rate ceiling imposed in the transportation model will be reviewed from time to time, to reflect changing labour force and trip-making characteristics.

A3.4.4 Distribution of Employment

Each land use scenario assumed a different distribution of employment growth in the Edmonton sub-region, as well as a different distribution in the City of Edmonton. The comparisons presented in the next three sections define the range of employment estimates utilized in the estimation of future travel demand patterns.

A29 A3.4.4.1 1981

Scenario D assumed 60% of the sub-regional employment growth between 1971 and 1981 would occur in the city, while Scenario A assumed a slightly higher percentage. A much stronger downtown was assumed by Scenario D, in Figure 3.15. There were also significant differences in the number of jobs in the Central Business District fringe areas (Zones 2, 4 and 5) and in Millwoods (Zone 9), Bonnie Doon and the Southwest Industrial area (Zone 8).

A3.4.4.2 1991

Scenarios A and F both assumed 79% of the new employment growth between 1981 and 1991 would be located in the City of Edmonton, while Scenario E assumed a lower percentage of employment growth (64%). Scenario E allocated over half (33%) of the new jobs in the City of Edmonton to the Central Business District, resulting in a much stronger downtown than Scenario A, which allocated only 20% to the Central Business District. Figure 3.16 illustrates the different levels of employment assumed by these scenarios. The downtown core had a range of about 30,000 jobs, which reflected the more significant differences between scenarios E and A. A significant range of employment forecasts was also found in the suburbs.

A3.4.4.3 2001

Scenarios A and I both assumed almost 80% of the new jobs expected to be created in the Edmonton sub-region would be attracted to the City of Edmonton. Twenty percent of these jobs would be located in the downtown under Scenario A, compared with 12% under Scenario I. This indicated that a somewhat stronger decentralization of employment opportunities was anticipated under Scenario I. The most significant range of employment forecasts implied by these two scenarios lay in the suburbs located in the north and south parts of the city (Figure 3.17).

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A4.0 NETWORK ASSUMPTIONS

A4.1 INTRODUCTION

The basic components of the existing and committed roadway and transit network are highlighted below.

A4.2 1981 EXISTING AND COMMITTED ROADWAY NETWORK

There were three major new components in addition to the existing 1979 roadway network:

- the truck route loop

- one radial route

- the arterial roadway extensions for access to developing areas.

The 1981 existing and committed roadway network is shown in Figure 4.1, and the major new components are described below.

A4.2.1 The Truck Route Loop

The northern leg of the truck route loop (Yellowhead Trail) was assumed to be completed from Beverly Bridge to 184 Street. The western leg of the loop (170 Street) was assumed to be upgraded and constructed to connect Whitemud Freeway and Yellowhead Trail. The southern leg of the loop (Whitemud Freeway) was assumed to be completed from 170 Street to 75 Street only. Connections for the eastern leg (Highway 14X) were not added to the network. Movements from the southern leg to the northern leg of the truck route loop could be accomplished using the following two alternative routes:

Whitemud Drive at 75 Street - Capilano Freeway - 120 Avenue - Fort Road/66 Street - Yellowhead Trail

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Whitemud Drive at 75 Street - Argyll Road - Sherwood Park Freeway 17 Street/Highway 14X - Highway 16.

A4.2.2 Radial Route

The only radial route improvement assumed in the 1981 existing and committed network was Calgary Trail. These improvements included the twinning of Calgary Trail from 23 Avenue to 51 Avenue, and Project UNI. Project UNI is a transportation system management project which involves these following major changes and improvements.

103 - 104 Street one-way couplet which extends from 51 Avenue to 83 Avenue.

109 - 105 Street one-way couplet which involves one-way southbound on High Level Bridge using Saskatchewan Drive and connecting into 104 Street one-way southbound. Walterdale Bridge is one-way northbound complementing the one-way southbound High Level Bridge. Access to Walterdale can be made either through Walterdale Hill Road or Queen Elizabeth Road, both are one-way northbound.

A4.2.3 Arterial Roadway Extensions

Included in the 1981 existing and committed roadway network were arterial roadway extensions into newly developing residential areas, such as Clareview, Castle Downs I & II, West Jasper Place, Riverbend, Terwillegar, Kaskitayo and Millwoods, as well as the Northwest, South and Southwest Industrial Areas.

A4.3 1981 EXISTING AND COMMITTED TRANSIT NETWORK

A36

newly developed residential and industrial areas. The third group involved the construction of new transit centres or improvements to existing centres. A map showing the 1981 existing plus committed transit network is presented in Figure 4.2.

A4.3.1 Light Rail Transit Extensions

Four major extensions were assumed to be added to the LRT line. These are:

- NELRT extension to Clareview Town Centre

- Jasper Avenue LRT extension to Government Centre

- SLRT extension to 51 Avenue

- University of Alberta LRT extension.

In addition to these LRT extensions, existing bus routes were restructured to integrate with the new LRT stations along these extensions and the proposed transit centre concept.

A4.3.2 Extension of Transit Services

The transit network also included extension of bus services to new residential and industrial areas. These new transit services were provided for residential areas such as Clareview, Castle Downs I & II, West Jasper Place, Kaskitayo and Millwoods, as well as for the Northwest, South and Southwest industrial areas. The level of service provided by these new transit routes was consistent with the existing transit operating standards.

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A38 A5.0 ESTIMATION OF FUTURE TRAVEL DEMAND

A5.1 INTRODUCTION

The simplifying assumptions made in the comprehensive transportation model used to forecast travel demand are discussed below in detail.

A5.2 DISCUSSION OF UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS IN THE TRANSPORTATION MODEL

A5.2.1 Reliance on Morning Peak Hour Work Trips

Total travel demand is comprised of a wide variety of trip types, such as work trips, school trips, shopping trips, business trips, medical trips and social trips. Each type of trip places varying demands on the transportation systems and the peak demand for each trip purpose may occur at a different time period of the day. Consequently, there are considerable variations in travel demand during the different time periods of the day and from day to day throughout the year.

In Edmonton, research has shown that approximately 80% of all automobile trips and close to 100% of all transit trips that occur during the morning peak hour are work trips. In addition, a system designed to handle the morning peak hour automobile travel and transit volumes will efficiently handle the demand for travel for more than 90% of the time.* Based on these observations, morning peak hour travel demand has been identified as the most appropriate basis for the design of transportation facilities. Work trips, being the most habitual (ie predictable) of all trips, provide a convenient medium for the prediction of peak hour travel demand. The transportation modelling system was, therefore designed to estimate morning peak hour vehicular work trips.

A5.2.2 Morning Peak Hour Work Trip Generation Rates

Morning peak hour work trip generation rates employed in the estimation of future travel demand were based on the rates observed in the 1971

The City of Edmonton, Transportation Plan Part 3, Volume 1, P. 25.

A39

origin-destination study. Production rates** are categorized by dwelling type and attraction rates** are classified by non-residential land use classification. Trip production rates and attraction rates observed in 1971 are presented in Tables 5.1 and 5.2 respectively.

There has been considerable shift in the demographic, economic, and land use factors since 1971. Town houses and condominiums which formed a significant portion of new housing stocks in recent years and will probably do so in the years to come, were not common in 1971. A variety of factors have driven up land costs dramatically, and the housing industry has moved towards (and is projected to continue) the construction of higher density residential units. In 1971, there were also few business parks - mixed land usage within outlying industrial areas. Average household size as measured by persons per dwelling unit has declined from 3.28 in 1971 to approximately 2.6 in 1980. The vibrant Alberta economy and increased participation of female workers in the labour force has pushed the participation rate (expressed by the number of employed persons to total population) from 0.35 in 1971 to about 0.5 in 1980.

It was assumed in the demand forecasting model that the 1971 production and attraction rates would be valid to the year 2001. It was further assumed that, although the total number of employed persons may exceed 40% of total population, the proportion of full time employed persons would not exceed this level.

Ongoing transportation planning and modelling work will be required to examine these and other contingent factors from time to time, to identify the consequences of any changes observed and to prepare appropriate recommendations.

Home to work trips are generally regarded for modelling purposes as beginning (or being produced) at the home and terminating at (or being attracted to) the work end of the trip. Hence production rates relate to dwelling types and attraction rates to land use classification.

A40

TABLE 5.1 AVERAGE TRIP PRODUCTION (Vehicular Trips Per Acre During Morning Peak Hour)

LAND USE

RATE

Residential High Density (Apartments at 40 units/acre)

Resident Medium Density (Rown/town Housing, walk-up apartments at 20 units/acre)

Resident Low Density (single/semi/duplex at 5 - 6 units/acre)

TABLE 52 AVERAGE TRIP ATTRACTION (Vehicular Trips Per Acre During Morning Peak Hour)

LAND USE

RATE

Central area offices

152

University

Industrial

Institutional

Shopping Centre/suburban office

City Wide Average Generation Rates

TABLE 5.1-5.2

A41 A5.2.3 Roadway Congestion and Transit Travel Time

Both the captive distribution component and the choice modal split component of the transportation modelling system (see Section 5.3) utilized in-vehicle transit travel time to perfoLui their respective tasks. In reality, in-vehicle transit travel times are affected by roadway congestion in situations where transit vehicles share the right-of-way with other vehicular traffic. This interaction between automobile and transit was not fully been taken into account by the simulation model when estimating future transit travel characteristics, since in-vehicle transit travel times were assumed to be constant over time and were estimated manually from existing schedules. In-vehicle transit travel times therefore reflected delays due to existing traffic congestion only.

This assumption may result in a slight over-estimation of transit ridership, transit trip length (in miles) and transit operating speeds. However, this was deemed to be insignificant, owing to the fact that in-vehicle travel time constituted only one of five components in the calculation of total transit travel time and it has, relatively, the least influence on transit travel demand. Furthermore, transit priority measures, embodied in schemes such as Project UNI, allowing transit vehicles priority at intersections, will tend to enhance transit ridership and operating speeds to some degree, thereby further compensating for any overestimation by the modelling system.

A5.2.4 Automobile Occupancy

The average city-wide morning peak hour work trip auto-occupancy rate observed in 1971 was 1.16 persons per car. This rate had declined marginally to 1.11 persons per car by 1976, largely due to higher automobile ownership. The morning peak hour work trip auto-occupancy rate used in the estimation of future travel demand was assumed to remain at the 1971 level of 1.16 persons per car.

A42

Over the design period it was felt that pressure on the transportation system would tend to reverse the recent trend, and may even result in a higher average car occupancy rate than that adopted for use.

A5.2.5 Energy Conservation and Automobile Usage

According to a recent forecast on automobile fuel efficiency, the corporate average fuel economy (C.A.F.E.) for American cars is projected to be 35 miles per gallon by 1985. About 50% of American cars will have four cylinder engines and only 10% will have eight cylinder engines. By 1990, it is projected that the C.A.F.E. will be 37.5 miles per gallon, 72% of U.S. made cars will have four cylinder engines, and there will be no passenger cars with V-8 engines.*

The anticipated increase in automobile fuel efficiency, coupled with the advent of synthetic fuel technology, tends to support the assumption used in this study that rising automobile fuel prices and the trend toward energy conservation would not have any significant net impact on automobile usage, especially for work trips.

Nevertheless the impacts of these two highly significant, yet opposing, factors will be monitored carefully in the continuing transportation planning process, and appropriate actions initiated. It is likely that changes in these factors will affect the design horizon period and the timing of construction of major infrastructure requirements rather than the design requirements themselves. The relative timing of major projects is unlikely to be affected. Ample opportunity exists in the on-going transportation planning process to review and accommodate these factors.

A5.2.6 Parking Availability

In the process of defining transportation infrastructure deficiencies in the 1981 existing and committed networks no restrictions were placed on the supply of parking spaces in the demand forecasting model. It was

Technology Review, October 1979, Pages 71-72.

A43

assumed that all automobile drivers who drive to work would be able to secure a parking stall. It was also assumed that new parking facilities in the downtown core and the fringe areas would provide sufficient parking stalls for automobile drivers destined to the central business district.

However, it should be noted very clearly that, in the ensuing development and analysis of alternative transportation strategies, varying degrees of parking restraint were assumed.

A5.3 ESTIMATION OF FUTURE TRAVEL DEMAND

The major steps in the transportation modelling process (shown in Figure 5.1) are discussed in detail in the following sections.

A5.3.1 Trip Generation

Each of the alternative land use scenarios described in Chapter 3 was defined in terms of population and employment levels in each traffic analysis zone. About 350 .internal zones covered the area within the 1979 city boundaries (Figure 1.2) and eight large external zones, which corresponded approximately to the catchment areas of the eight provincial highways, served the remaining areas in the Edmonton sub-region (Figure 1.3). Land use classification data was available for internal zones only.

A5.3.1.1 Internal Trip Generation

The land use data for internal traffic analysis zones was utilized to estimate two types of morning peak hour home-to-work trips ends:

- choice trip productions and attractions

- captive trip productions and attractions.

A44

A choice trip maker was defined as one who has both the automobile and transit modes available to travel to work. A captive trip maker does not have the option, he is captive to one mode (normally, transit).

Internal trip productions were defined as trips originating within the city boundaries. The majority (95%) of these trips were known to be destined to locations in the City of Edmonton, and the rest (5%) to locations in the Edmonton sub-region. Internal trip attractions related to employment located within the City of Edmonton. About 92.5% of these jobs were known to be filled by city residents and the balance taken up by sub-region residents living in areas such as Sherwood Park, St. Albert and elsewhere.

A5.3.1.2 External Trip Generation

External trips were defined as trips originating outside the city boundaries and destined to work locations in the city, or passing through the city to work locations beyond Edmonton. All other external trips originating in the Edmonton sub-region were not considered, since they did not place any demand on Edmonton's transportation system.

External trip productions were directly related to the population level in each of the eight external zones. Population growth allocated to the City of Edmonton and the sub-region was explicit in each land use scenario described in Chapter 3. For instance, Scenario A assumed 30% of the total sub-regional population growth would occur outside the City of Edmonton. This 30% population increment was then distributed among the eight external zones according to a growth pattern developed by the Edmonton Regional Planning Commission*. The number of trip makers who reside in each external zone but work elsewhere, and the number of trip makers who work in each external zone, was assumed to be directly proportional to the population in each zone. The proportions varied for production and attractions as well as for each of the eight external zones.

A Choice of Growth Management Strategies, Final Report, Edmonton Regional Planning Commission, March 1977. P. 16

A45

A5.3.1.3 Trip End Balancing

Three trip end balancing techniques were employed in adjusting trip ends. The first balancing technique involved the factoring of total internal trip productions (trips made by city residents) so that the total vehicular trips produced equaled the total City of Edmonton population multiplied by 0.19. This 0.19 was the product of the assumed participation rate* of 0.4 multiplied by the 1971 observed peak hour factor** of 0.476.

The second balancing technique involved the balancing of internal captive trip productions and attractions. In this regard, it was assumed that "transit captives" live and work within the city. The impacts of any deviations from this assumption were negligible because of the high concentration of transit trips in the City of Edmonton and the demographic characteristics of the area. Finally, the total trip productions and attractions were adjusted so that they were equal.

A5.3.1.4 Output

The output of the trip generation component of the transportation model was a set of trip end vectors in computer readable form, which were used in other components of the model.

A5.3.2 Trip Distribution

Trip distribution involved the distribution of the generated trips between each pair of analysis zones, and was performed in three separate stages:

* **

The participation rate is the proportion of total employed person to total population. The peak hour factor is the ratio of morning peak hour home-to-work vehicular trips (auto driver, auto passenger and transit rider) to the total number of home-to-work trips made throughout the day by all modes.

A46

- internal captive trips were distributed on the basis of transit travel time between each pair of analysis zones

- internal choice trips were distributed on the basis of auto travel time between each pair of analysis zones

- external trips were distributed using a growth factor algorithm developed from travel patterns observed in an external travel survey conducted by Alberta Transportation in 1974.

The output from the trip distribution component included choice and captive trip tables, both of which were in computer readable form, for use in the modal split component of the model described below.

A5.3.3 Modal Split

Modal split involved splitting of the choice and captive trip tables into the available travel modes.

A5.3.3.1 Choice Modal Split

Choice trips were divided in two groups:

- choice automobile drivers

- choice transit riders.

The division of choice trips was based on the comparative attributes of the two competing modes - public transit and the private automobile. For example, the travel time by car together with the expected weighted parking cost was compared with the walking distances (from home to bus stop and bus stop to work place), the waiting time, the transfer time as appropriate, and in-vehicle travel time associated with the equivalent trip by transit. Relationships developed from the 1971 origin-destination data were employed to determine the split between automobile and transit trip makers.

A47 A5.3.3.2 Captive Modal Split

Captive trips were split between captive auto and captive transit riders. Auto passengers were deducted from the captive trip table until the assumed auto occupancy rate of 1.16 had been satisfied. The remaining captive trips were treated as captive transit riders.

A5.3.3.3 Trips by Mode

In subsequent analyses, automobile trips refer to the sum of all auto drivers and auto passengers. Transit trips refer to the sum of all captive and choice transit trips. Total trips refer to the sum of automobile trips and transit trips.

A5.3.4 Trip Assignment

Trip assignment involved the allocation of projected transit and roadway trips onto simulated transportation networks. The performance of the 1981 existing and committed networks under various potential travel demand patterns was evaluated by using two types of assignment:

- capacity restrained assignment

- straight line demand assignment.

A5.3.4.1 Capacity Restrained Assignment

This assignment process simulated the performance of actual facilities by assigning estimated auto driver and transit trips to computer models of the 1981 existing and committed networks. This procedure was designed to uncover potential problems along specific links and at intersections on the networks.

A48

A5.3.4.2 Straight Line Demand Assignment

This procedure involved the assignment of each trip to the straight line joining its origin to its destination. It simulated the desired travel demand without reference to the available transportation facilities, ie: no man-made or physical constraints were imposed on the straight line demand across selected screenlines and corridors*. This procedure was used to identify basic flaws in the 1981 existing and committed networks, and to identify how future travel demand patterns would be modified by the physical networks.

A5.3.4.3 Identification of Potential Transportation Problems

The capacity restrained and straight line assignments complemented each other and provided a powerful tool for the identification of network deficiencies. In both procedures, the demands across selected cordon and screen lines were summarized. The capacity restrained assignment revealed the number of trips crossing these screen lines and cordons on the existing transportation network, and the straight line assignment indicated the number of trips that would cross the screen lines and cordons in the absence of any physical and man-made constraints. The resulting comparisons measured the ability of the existing transportation system to accommodate the unrestrained demand.

These two assignments were employed to identify the locations, magnitude and urgency of potential transportation problems, assuming that no improvements to the roadway and transit networks were carried out after 1981.

For a description of these screen lines and cordons see 3.3.2 and Figure 3.

A49 A6.0 OVERVIEW OF FUTURE TRAVEL DEMAND

A6.1 INTRODUCTION

To simplify the depiction of the travel demands, cordons and screenlines were defined and travel demand forecasts prepared as indcated previously.

A6.2 CORDONS AND SCREENLINES

The City of Edmonton was subdivided by 4 cordons and 8 screenlines for use in the analysis of future travel demand. These cordons and screenlines are illustrated in Figure 6.1 and described fully below.

A6.2.1 Cordons

Cordon 1 surrounded the Central Business District, and was defined by the CNR tracks on the north, 95 Street on the east, the North Saskatchewan River on the south, and the CPR tracks on the west. Trips destined to locations inside this cordon were labelled as "radial" trips.

Cordon 2 surrounded the Central Business District, and was delineated by 111 and 112 Avenues on the north, 82 and 86 Streets on the east, 82 Avenue on the south and Groat Road on the west. Trips destined to locations between cordon 1 and cordon 2 were defined as "fringe" trips.

Cordon 3 was defined by Yellowhead Trail on the north, 50 Street on the east, 63 Avenue/Argyll Road on the south and 142 Street on the west. The area between cordon 2 and cordon 3 is largely residential, but also includes the Municipal Airport, Northern Alberta Institute of Technology, and the Edmonton Exhibition Grounds.

Cordon 4 was delineated by 137 Avenue on the north, 17 Street on the east, Whitemud Freeway on the south and 156 Street on the west. The area bounded by cordon 3 and cordon 4 includes the southeast industrial area, part of the south and northwest industrial areas, as well as half of the refineries located to the east of 50 Street.

A50

The area beyond cordon 4 included the newly developing residential areas such as Millwoods, Kaskitayo, Riverbend and Terwillegar, West Jasper Place, Castledowns, Pilot Sound and Clareview, as well as the subregional growth centres outside of the City of Edmonton. The remaining oil refineries and the bulk of the south and northwest industrial areas also are located beyond cordon 4.

A6.2.2 Screenlines

Eight screenlines radiating from the Central Business District divided the city into eight sectors. The focal point of these screenlines was at 101 Street and Jasper Avenue. Screenline 1 stretched southeastward from Connors Road between Sherwood Park and Millwoods. Screenline 2 ran due south of the North Saskatchewan River along the CPR tracks. Screenline 3 radiated southwestwards from the Central Business District and broadly followed the North Saskatchewan River. Screenline 4 ran due west along the McKinnon Ravine to Highway 16. Screenline 5 extended in a west northwesterly direction to the south of St. Albert. Screenline 6 ran in a north northwesterly direction between St. Albert and Castle Downs. Screenline 7 stretched in a north northeasterly direction to the area between Lake District and Pilot Sound. Screenline 8 radiated in an east northeasterly direction approximately along the line of the North Saskatchewan River.

These screenlines were used to measure crosstown travel demand. Screenlines 3 and 8 which and the southern boundary of cordon 1, which define the North Saskatchewan River, were very useful in assessing the demand for river crossings.

A6.3 OVERVIEW OF PEAK HOUR HOME-TO-WORK TRAVEL DEMAND

A6.3.1 Peak Hour Trip Generation

Two broad categories of trips that could register impacts on Edmonton's roadway and transit network were considered in the trip generation model. They are defined as follows and described below:

A51 - internal trips refer to trips that originated inside the city and were destined to job locations inside or outside Edmonton.

- external trips refer to trips that originated outside the city in surrounding communities such as Sherwood Park and St. Albert and were destined to job locations inside Edmonton. Trips destined to locations outside Edmonton were also included if they involved travel through the city.

Reference should be made to Table 6.1 in the main body of the report.

A6.3.2 Internal and External Trips

Total internal and external peak hour trips were projected to increase from a minimum of approximately 118,000 (Scenario A) in 1981 to a maximum of about 166,000 (Scenario I) in 2001. Due to the higher population and employment projections assumed by the General Municipal Plan scenarios, a difference of 7,000 trips was observed between Scenario A and Scenario F in 1991. For internal trips originating within the City of Edmonton, there was no significant difference between the land use scenarios considered in 1981 and 2001. A difference of 6,000 trips was projected between Scenario E and F in 1991; this was largely attributable to the different land use distribution patterns between Edmonton and the surrounding areas assumed by these scenarios.

For external trips originating in the surrounding communities, there was again no significant difference between the land use scenarios considered in 1991 and 2001. The difference between the 1991 Scenario A and Scenario E external trip forecasts amounted to 7,000 trips, which represented a difference of almost 30%. It should be noted that for 1991 Scenario F was expected to generate some 2,000 more trips than Scenarios A and I in 2001. This wide gap for external trip projections was largely due to the substantial differences in sub-regional population distribution between the city and the region, and the higher population and employment estimates employed by Scenario E.

A52

A6.3.3 Modal Split Forecasts

Modal splits for internal trips varied only slightly (3%) in spite of the different land use configurations. As well, modal split for all scenarios remained almost static (1% difference) between 1981 and 2001. It should be noted that modal split varies with roadway and transit network characteristics. These modal splits would likely be different if improvements were to be applied to the transportation networks. The modal split for external transit trips was assumed to remain static over time (See 5.2.3). The total number of transit trips was expected to increase at a slower rate than that of auto trips. Over the 20 year period, transit trips were projected to rise about 35% as compared to approximately 40% for auto trips.

A6.3.4 Auto Restraint

A6.4 PEAK HOUR WORK TRIP ATTRACTIONS

A6.4.1 General Remarks and Definitions

Peak hour work trip attractions by destination for Scenarios A, D, E, F and I and for the year 1981, 1986, 1991 and and 2001 are presented in Table 6.2 and illustrated graphically in Figure 6.2 in the main body of the report. Four general areas are defined by trip (destination) characteristics in this table, they are:

- the Central Business District - radial trips.

- the Central Business District Fringe area - fringe trips.

A53 - the remainder of the city-crosstown trips.

- areas outside the city - external trips.

A6.4.2 Radial Trips

A6.4.2.1 Total Radial Trips by Auto and Transit

Under Scenario A, peak hour radial trips were expected to increase from 37,000 to 42,000 between 1981 and 2001, which represented a 14% increase in 20 years.

Scenario D, which assumed a much stronger Central Business District, anticipated a total of 45,000 trips terminating in the Central Business District in 1981, 3,000 trips more than Scenario A predicted for 2001.

Both Scenario E and Scenario F showed a substantial increase (30% and 20% respectively) in the number of radial trips between 1981 and 1991. Some 59,000 radial trips were estimated under Scenario E for 1991, which represented the strongest downtown of all the different land use patterns used in this study.

A6.4.2.2 Radial Transit Trips

Between 36 and 41% of the trips destined to the Central Business District during the peak hour were transit trips. More than half of the new trips destined for the Central Business District were expected to use public transit under Scenarios A and I, which resulted in a marginal shift in the overall modal split towards the use of transit. Under Scenarios E and F, transit's share of the new arrivals was projected to be about 30%, which marginally lowered the overall transit share of trips to 36%.

A54

A6.4.3 Fringe Trips

A6.4.3.1 Total Fringe Trips by Auto and Transit

Peak hour fringe trips were forecast to increase steadily from 21,000 in 1981 to about 25,000 in 2001 under Scenario A.

Very little change in fringe trips was predicted for Scenarios E and F.

In 1981, fringe trips were expected to account for about 18% of the total, however, all scenarios assumed a moderate decline in the proportion of fringe trips in the future years.

A6.4.3.2 Trips by Transit to the Fringe Area

A moderate decline in the modal share of transit was expected under Scenarios A and I while a marginal increase was expected for Scenarios E and F.

A6.4.4 Crosstown Trips

A6.4.4.1 Total Crosstown Trips by Auto and Transit

Very significant growth in crosstown trips was projected for areas outside the Central Business District fringe areas for all land use alternatives.

Scenario A projected a 30% increase in crosstown trips by 1991 and a 70% increase by 2001 over the 1981 levels. Crosstown trips in 2001 also accounted for more than half of all peak hour trips (double the number of radial trips) under this scenario.

By 1991 Scenarios E and F projected 20% and 40% increases, respectively, in crosstown trips.

A55

Scenario F showed a gradual increase in the relative magnitude of crosstown trips. These 1991 crosstown trips accounted for about 42% of all trips and 6% more than radial trips.

Under Scenario E, however, crosstown trips were expected to decrease marginally, falling slightly below the number of radial trips.

A6.4.4.2 Crosstown Trips by Transit

The proportion of crosstown trips by transit was virtually identical for all scenarios and time periods, lying in the range 14% to 16% of all crosstown trips.

A6.4.5 External Trips

A6.4.5.1 Total External Trips by Auto and Transit

Under Scenarios A and I, peak hour work trips originating inside the city and destined to work locations outside the city were anticipated to expand by 50% between 1981 and 2001.

The magnitude of this 20 year growth projected under Scenarios A and I was expected to be attained by Scenarios E and F in a much shorter time frame: by 1991.

A6.4.5.2 External Trips by Transit

Transit trips were an insignificant component of external trips.

Trips destined to job locations outside the city accounted for less than 10% of all peak hour trips and were assumed to be automobile trips under the "do-nothing" conditions.

A56

A6.4.6 Comparison of Transit Effectiveness for Different Trip Types

In general, there was a higher probability that people who work in the downtown area would use public transit than people who work elsewhere in the study area. This was largely attributed to the configuration of the downtown-oriented transit network, and the relatively higher downtown parking cost. Modal split for transit was expected to decline from an average of about 39% to 28% for fringe trips, to 15% for crosstown trips and to almost zero for external trips. This reflected the difficulties that transit encountered in effectively serving (compared with the private automobile) areas characterized by medium to low density employment activities.

A6.5 PEAK HOUR WORK TRIP PRODUCTIONS

A6.5.1 General Remarks and Definitions

Peak hour work trip productions by origins for Scenarios A, D, E, F and I and for the years 1981, 1986, 1991 and 2001 are shown in Figure 6.3 and in Table 6.3 included in the main body of the report. The general areas were defined by the cordons:

- the central area - areas inside Cordon 2

- the inner suburbs - areas between Cordons 2 and 4

- the outlying plan areas

- surrounding communities outside the city, ie. areas beyond Cordon 4.

A6.5.2 Central Area - Inside Cordon 2

A6.5.2.1 Total Central Area Trip Productions by Auto and Transit

Trip productions in the central area were expected to remain constant at 15,000 over the planning horizon, under Scenario A.

A57

Similarly trip productions under Scenario F were expected to remain quite stable over time.

Scenario E presaged a moderate decline in trips, reflecting the anticipated continuing migration of population from the inner city.

Scenario I on the other hand, registered a 25% increase in trip production between 1981 and 2001, which reflected the decentralization of nonresidential development and a stronger commitment to downtown residential activity.

Trip productions from the central area constituted about 10% of total peak hour work trips.

A6.5.2.2 Central Area Transit Trips

For all scenarios 41% to 43% of total central area trips were transit trips, a significantly higher figure than the city-wide modal split rate of about 25%.

The higher modal split in the central area reflected a high degree of accessibility by public transit to most of the areas inside the city. This was also dictated by the transit network configuration which was specifically designed to serve the central area as its first priority.

A6.5.3 Inner Suburbs - Between Cordon 2 and Cordon 4

A6.5.3.1 Total Inner Suburban Trips by Auto and Transit

The inner suburbs were projected to generate approximately 50,000 peak hour vehicular work trips in Scenarios A and F.

A58

In contrast, Scenario I assumed a marginal increase by the year 2001, and Scenario E assumed a 10% decline in trip productions by 1991, which reflected the expected continuating migration of inner city residents to outer areas of the city. The inner suburbs accounted for about 42% of total trip productions in 1981, but this proportion was anticipated to drop to about 30% after 1991.

A6.5.3.2 Inner Suburban Trips by Transit

For all scenarios over the design period these trips remained relatively constant in the range 24% to 28%.

A6.5.4 Outlying Areas - Beyond Cordon 4

A6.5.4.1 Total Trips from Outlying Areas by Auto and Transit

The outlying areas were anticipated to accommodate most of the population growth for all scenarios.

Trip production almost doubled under Scenario A, between 1981 and 2001, from 36,000 to 71,000.

Scenarios E and F exhibited an increase of 60% in the 10 years between 1981 and 1991; which represented a faster growth rate than that of Scenario A.

Scenario I was expected to produce 30,000 more trips in 20 years, which represented the slowest growth rate at approximately 31% increase over the 20 year period.

The outlying areas accounted for about 30% of total trip production in 1981, increasing to more than 40% by 2001.

A59

A6.5.4.2 Transit Trips from Outlying Areas

The proportion of transit work trips originating from the outlying plan area varied from a low of 23% under Scenario F to a high of 27% under Scenario E.

This higher modal split for Scenario E was largely due to the higher concentration of employment in the Central Business District assumed by this scenario. Public transit can more efficiently service the Central Business District oriented trips than trips destined to other areas of the city.

A6.5.5 External Areas

A6.5.5.1 Total Trips from External Areas by Auto and Transit

Under Scenarios A and I, the significance of trips originating outside Edmonton increased over time. Scenarios A and I assumed an annual growth rate of 2.3% which represented an absolute increase of 11,000 in 20 years.

Scenario E, which assumed much stronger sub-regional growth, was expected to produce 32,000 peak hour trips in 1991, which translated to an annual growth rate of 4.7%.

Scenario F projected about 28,000 peak hour work trips being generated in 1991, which again revealed a much higher growth rate than Scenarios A and I, at approximately 3.4%.

The proportion of external trips increased from 16% in 1981 to between 18 and 22% after 1991. Over ninety percent of these trips would require the use of the private automobile. This increase in external automobile trips would have serious implications on the city's transportation network.

A60

A6.5.5.2 Trips from External Areas by Transit

Outside the City of Edmonton only about 6% of all trips produced were expected to use public transit.

The low modal split for areas outside the city boundaries was largely due to the assumptions associated with transit services outside Edmonton. Only two existing suburban transit routes, linking Sherwood Park and St. Albert with Edmonton, were included in the transit network. Residents living outside Edmonton who did not have access to these bus routes were assumed to use the private automobile for their journey to work.

A6.6 DESIRE LINE DEMAND

A6.6.1 Desire Line Diagrams

Peak hour desire line demands across the cordons and screenlines for Scenarios A, D, E, F and I and for the years 1981, 1986, 1991 and 2001, are shown in Figures 6.4 to 6.11 included in this Appendix. These desire lines diagrams are intended to reveal the changes in demand patterns expected to occur over time and under various land use alternatives.

Total peak hour vehicular work trip demands have been plotted according to their relative magnitudes. The width of a band is proportional to the travel demand and the demand patterns have also been colour coded to represent three different levels of vehicular work trip demand.

It should be noted that a demand of 10,000 persons within any sector represents a major movement of people. If a modal split of 40% is assumed, the physical roadway facilities required to carry 6,000 person trips by automobile would be at least 6 arterial lanes, and an exclusive bus lane or LRT line would be required to carry the remaining 4,000 transit trips to and from work.

A61 ortation

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A63

A6.6.2 1981 Desire Line Demand - Scenarios A & D (Figures 6.4 & 6.8)

The desire line demands under these two scenarios are very similar and will be dealt with as one. Only the most important differences will be highlighted here.

The morning peak hour inbound (to the Central Business District) radial travel demand in 1981 within most sectors ranged from 5,000 to 8,000 persons per hour.

The majority of this radial movement was oriented towards the Central Business District (inside cordon 1), with the exception of sections 2 and 6, serving the southeast and the northwest industrial areas respectively.

The network in these areas was expected to experience significant outbound (from the Central Business District) flows of between 4,000 and 5,000 persons per hour.

The southwest area of Edmonton was expected to generate a travel demand exceeding 10,000 persons per hour in 1981. Under Scenario A, this level of travel demand would probably occur in Sector 3, (inbound to the Central Business District) across cordon 2 (Figure 6.4), and under Scenario D, in both sectors 3 and 4, inbound across cordon 1 (Figure 6.8).

The desire line plots also revealed a strong non-radial movement to the north, south and west of the Central Business District between cordons 1 and 2. The magnitude of these non-radial trips ranges from 5,000 to 6,000 persons per hour. The non-radial movement to the east of the Central Business District was about 2,500 persons per hour, which was significantly lower than those non-radial movements (Figures 6.4 and 6.8) noted above.

In general, non-radial movements were more directionally balanced than radial movements, in which the inbound morning peak hour trips generally dominated outbound trips.

A64

A6.6.3 1986 Desire Line Demand - Scenario A (Figure 6.5)

By 1986, the morning peak hour inbound radial travel demand in most sectors was expected to increase by about 1,000 persons per hour, which raised the demand to the 6,000 to 9,000 persons per hour range. The demand across cordons 2 and 3 in Sector 3, southwest Edmonton, was projected to exceed 10,000 persons per hour. In Sector 2, the demand across cordon 4 from Millwoods into the southeast industrial area was also expected to surpass the 10,000 persons per hour level (Figure 6.5). The expected growth in the southeast industrial area would also result in an increase in the outbound demand in Sector 2 of about 500 person trips per hour. In addition, moderate increases in the adjacent screenline crossings could also be seen from the desire line plot illustrated in Figure 6.5. The most significant change in non-radial movement was observed from West Jasper Place to the Northwest Industrial Area, which registered a 40% increase in the period between 1981 and 1986.

A6.6.4 1991 Desire Line Demand

A6.6.4.1 Available Forecasts

Desire line plots are available for Scenarios A, E and F for the year 1991.

A6.6.4.2 Scenario A - (Figure 6.6)

Scenario A again assumed an additional surcharge of about 1,000 persontrips per hour within most sectors on the morning peak hour inbound radial demand. This increase was especially apparent in Sector 3 from Riverbend - Terwillegar, in Sector 2 from Millwoods, and in Sector 7 from Castle Downs, all of which were assumed to be well under development by this interim planning year. The demands across cordon 3 in both Sectors 7 and 8 were projected to exceed 10,000 persons per hour by 1991. (Figure 6.6)

A65 A6.6.4.3 Scenario E - (Figure 6.9)

Scenario E, which assumed the strongest Central Business District of all scenarios, was forecast to exhibit even higher inbound demands in Sectors 2, 3 and 7.

The demand across cordon 4 was projected to exceed 14,000 persons per hour, in Sector 3; the demand across cordon 3 was expected to reach some 15,000 persons per hour, and the demand in Sector 7 across all four cordons was anticipated to be over 10,000 persons per hour.

The highest travel demand was expected in Sector 4, when growth in West Jasper Place coupled with external eastbound trips from Highway 16 may push future demands across all four cordons well over 10,000 and the travel demand across cordon 1 above 16,000 persons per hour.

Scenario E also assumed the highest proportion of external trips and the lowest employment level in the industrial areas. These assumptions resulted in much higher external demand in Sector 1 (from Sherwood Park) and Sector 6 (from St. Albert) as well as relatively weak outbound travel demand and lower non-radial demand in the outer areas.

A6.6.4.4 Scenario F - (Figure 6.10)

Travel demand under Scenario F was estimated to be between Scenario A and E.

The morning peak hour radial inbound demands were generally higher than Scenario A, but not as high as the demand patterns under Scenario E.

As regards outbound travel, Scenario A suggested a higher demand than Scenario F and Scenario E is lower than Scenario F.

A66

A6.6.4.5 Potential Impacts on the Central Area

All scenarios were forecast to show strong non-radial movement around the central area (cordon 1), and to a lesser degree in the outer areas (cordons 2, 3 and 4).

Scenario E was expected to exhibit the highest level of travel demand close to the Central Business District, with the clockwise movement on the south cordon exceeding 10,000 persons per hour.

In general, it may be neither desirable nor beneficial to accommodate these trips along the desire line, and therefore discretion was exercised in interpreting some of the non-radial demands located near the central area. A detailed analysis of non-radial movements is presented in the next chapter.

A6.6.5 2001 Desire Line Demand - Scenarios A & I (Figures 6.7 & 6.11)

A6.6.5.1 Available Forecasts

Land use Scenarios A and I for the year 2001 were the only two scenarios available at the time this study was conducted. Some of the travel demand patterns appeared lower than Scenario E in 1991. This was attributable to the different assumptions with regard to the level and distribution of population and employment.

A6.6.5.2 Inbound Radial Trips

The 2001 morning peak hour inbound radial travel demand was quite similar for both Scenarios A and I. It is interesting to note that, travel demand, in all sectors except sector 3, was lower than the travel demand estimated under Scenario E in 1991. The continued development of Riverbend and Terwillegar assumed by Scenarios A and I was expected to raise the demand in Sector 3 across cordon 4 to about 13,000 persons per hour.

A67

A6.6.5.3 Outbound Radial Trips

Due to the land use assumptions implicit in Scenarios A and I, significant changes resulted in the magnitude of outbound trips and non-radial movement. Outbound radial demand in Sector 1 was anticipated to be about 7,000 persons per hour, and in Sector 6 across cordon 3 demand was expected to rise above 5,000 persons per hour for the first time. In addition, some 5,000 outbound radial person trips were estimated during the peak hour in Sector 3, because the University was assumed to be developed by 2001 under Scenario I.

A6.6.5.4 Non-radial Trips

This development, coupled with the development of the industrial areas Whitemud Drive and 63 Avenue (Argyll Road), significantly increased the non-radial travel demands to about 5,000 persons per hour clockwise and 3,000 counter-clockwise in sector. Finally, the clockwise demand across Highway 16 to the Northwest Industrial Area was forecast to increase significantly to about 7,000 persons per hour by 2001.

A68

A7.0 ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE TRANSPORTATION REQUIREMENTS

A7.3 RADIAL TRANSIT DEMAND ANALYSIS

A7.3.1 General Remarks Attention is drawn to Section 7.3.1 and Figures 7.1 - 7.8 inclusive in the main body of the report. A detailed discussion on this facet of travel demand follows:

A7.3.2 1981 Radial Transit Demand Analysis - Scenarios A & D (Figures 7.1 & 7.2)

The 1981 morning peak hour inbound radial transit demand within cordon 4 (the outermost cordon) in most sectors was projected to lie in the range from 1,000 to almost 4,000 person-trips. The magnitude of transit demand was forecast to increase for each successive cordon approaching the Central Business District.

Transit demand in sector 3 across cordons 1 and 2 under both Scenario A and D was expected to exceed by a significant margin the 3,000.pph threshold. This indicated a rather strong demand for transit generated from the new and established neighbourhoods in the southwest sector of the city. Most importantly, transit demand in sector 3 between cordon 1 and cordon 3 (University Area) was projected to be about half of the total demand in sector 3 under Scenario D. This concentration of demand in space will aid viability in this area.

Sector 7 across cordons 1, 2 and 3 was forecast to generate a significant radial transit demand. A major portion of this radial transit demand was expected to emanate from Castle Downs, Dickensfield and Londonderrry (50 % to 70%).

Radial transit demand from the west end in Sector 4 was predicted to approach significant proportions under both Scenarios A and D. The demand across cordon 1 was expected to approach 4,000 trips 'under Scenario D. Again, a major portion of this demand was generated by recently developed areas, such as West Jasper Place.

A69

A7.3.3 1986 Radial Transit Demand - Scenario A (Figure 7.3)

The 1986 radial transit demand generated by Scenario A was expected to reveal a similar pattern to the patterns developed for Scenarios A and I. The only area that was expected to exceed the 3,000 threshold was that defined by Sector 3 and cordon 3. This increase over 1981 conditions was due largely to the expected residential development to the east of Castle Downs. As well, Sector 2 was projected to show a moderate increase in radial transit trips, which was largely produced in Millwoods.

A7.3.4 1991 Radial Transit Demand - Scenarios A, E & F (Figures 7.4, 7.5 & 7.6)

By 1991, development pressures from Castle Downs, West Jasper Place, Riverbend and Terwillegar were generally expected to push radial transit demand in Sectors 3, 4 and 7 over the threshold level. The demand level in these three sectors ranged from a low of 1,700 in Sector 3 across cordon 4 to a high of 5,300 in Sector 4 across cordon 1, with demand typically exceeding 3,000 pph.

Sectors 2 and 3 were forecast to reach the threshold by 1991. In Sector 2, a very significant portion of the transit demand was expected to come from Millwoods. Some 3,800 transit trips were projected from Millwoods under Scenario E in 1991.

Sector 8, across cordons 2 and 3, where the existing Light Rail Transit Line is located, exceeded 3,000 radial transit trips by 1991. This projection seemed to be somewhat conservative when compared with the current passenger level. However, the projection represented only the desire line demand, which is independent of network constraints. The feeder bus services in most of the northeast quadrant have been structured to feed into the NELRT, and do not necessarily represent the most direct route for the trip maker. As a result, transit riders tend to use these LRT feeder bus services and the LRT itself because of the overall advantages of this system.

A70

A7.3.5 2001 Radial Transit Demand - Scenarios A & I (Figures 7.7 & 7.8)

Some of the projected transit volumes for Scenarios A and I appeared to be lower than Scenario E in 1991. This was largely due to the different assumptions with regard to the level and distribution of population and employment, especially in the Central Business District. The 2001 radial transit demand patterns revealed by Scenarios A and I were quite similar to the projected 1991 conditions.

Corridors with strong potential for providing good radial transit services were in Sectors 2, 3, 4, 7 and 8. The Riverbend and Terwillegar neighbourhoods, which were assumed to be well under development by 2001, were expected to generate a radial transit demand exceeding 3,000 person-trips under Scenario A.

A7.4 AUTO DEMAND AND CAPACITY ANALYSIS

A7.4.1 General Remarks

Attention is drawn to Section 7.4.1 and Figures 7.9 - 7.16 inclusive in the main body of the text. A detailed discussion of the auto demand and capacity analysis follows:

A7.4.2 1981 Radial Auto Demand and Capacity Analysis - Scenarios A & D (Figures 7.9 & 7.10)

The demand for radial auto trips was largely dependent on the assumptions associated with Central Business District and Central Business District fringe employment opportunities. Both Scenarios A and D assumed a very strong Central Business District, although Scenario D assumed some 10,000 more jobs than Scenario A. The resulting radial travel demands for Scenario A and D were very similar.

The continuous development of West Jasper Place and increased external trips from Highway 16 west were expected to create a major capacity deficiency in sector 4 between cordons 1 and 4. Under Scenario D, this deficiency amounted to about 5,000 pph to 6,000 pph and under Scenario A.

A71

It was in the range of 3,000 pph to 5,000 pph. However, the magnitude of this deficiency may have been overstated, because "spare capacity" was expected to be available in Sector 5, located immediately to the north of Sector 4. It should be noted that a significant capacity constraint was expected to occur in the Central Business District fringe between cordons 1 and 2 (ie. the limited capacity would likely modify demands for travel in both time and space so as to reduce the extremes in demand to acceptable or manageable proportions).

As well, the resultant capacity deficiency when Sectors 3 and 4 were combined remained somewhat serious under Scenario D.

Sector 3, between cordons 1 and 4 was also expected to exhibit signs of stress, especially in the Central Business District fringe under both scenarios. Again, the magnitude of capacity deficiency was greater for Scenario D than for Scenario A, reflecting the higher downtown employment forecasts in Scenario D. The most critical area in this sector was in cordon 1, where limited river crossing capacity (2 lanes) was provided, resulting in a deficiency of 5 arterial lanes.

Areas around Northgate, Capilano and Westmount were also expected to exhibit capacity deficiencies in 1981.

The CNR railway grade separations at 97 Street and 82 Street constrained the increasing travel demand generated from Castle Downs.

The deficiency in the Capilano area was attributed to auto demand mainly from the County of Strathcona. However, this demand from the Sherwood Park area could also be accommodated by excess capacity in Sector 3, utilizing 82 Avenue and Connors Road.

The deficiency in the Westmount area, in particular at the 118 Avenue and Groat Road traffic circle, was traced to external travel demand from St. Albert. However, this problem was not apparent under Scenario A until the period after 1991.

A.7 7

A7.4.3 1986 Radial Auto Demand and Capacity Analysis - Scenario A (Figure 7.11)

The 1986 radial auto demand pattern was to be quite similar to the 1981 pattern under Scenario A, with the exception of the Castle Downs area which exhibited a marginal degree of stress in radial roadway capacity.

In general the magnitidue of capacity deficiency in Sectors 3 and 4 between cordons 1 and 4 was higher for Scenario D in 1981 than Scenario A in 1986. This apparent discrepancy was due largely to the fact that the 1986 employment estimate for Scenario A was about 5,000 jobs less than the estimate for Scenario D in 1981.

A7.4.4 1991 Radial Auto Demand and Capacity Analysis Scenarios A, E & F (Figures 7.12, 7.13 & 7.14)

By 1991, the capacity deficient corridors under Scenario A were expected to be similar to the 1986 pattern. The magnitude of these deficiencies was projected to increase moderately as the outlying suburbs were developed. It should be noted the central employment assumed by Scenario A was again slightly lower than that assumed by Scenario D in 1981. The demand patterns generated by these two scenarios were quite sitilar in distribution and magnitude.

Scenarios E and F, which assumed a stronger Central Business District, were expected to have about 20,000 to 30,000 more jobs than Scenario A. The capacity deficiency patterns revealed by these two scenarios were quite similar, and the magnitude and extent of these deficiencies were, in general, more critical than for Scenario A.

The west end corridor (sector 4) was expected to deteriorate quite rapidly by 1991.

A73

The University area was projected to have serious capacity problems and the demand in the Northgate area was forecast to exceed available peak hour capacity by about 4,000 person-trips, thereby, further emphasizing the constraints created by the CNR grade separations at 97 and 82 Streets.

The Queen Mary Park area, located to the north of downtown in Sector 7 and the Coliseum area in Sector 8 were expected to show signs of capacity deficiency by 1991 under Scenarios E and F.

A7.4.5 2001 Auto Radial Demand and Capacity Analysis Scenarios A & I (Figures 7.15 & 7.16)

The distribution of deficient corridors under Scenarios A and I in 2001 was quite similar to the 1991 patterns produced by Scenarios E and F, with the exception of the Kaskitayo, Riverbend and Terwillegar areas.

One additional arterial lane was expected to be required to match 2001 travel demand under Scenario I. The magnitude of the deficiencies forecast for these two scenarios was projected to be somewhat lower than that exhibited under 1991 Scenarios E and F. As stated earlier, the high downtown employment estimates employed by the two General Municipal Plan Scenarios were responsible for this difference.

A7.4.6 Cross-town Demand and Capacity Analysis

In order to assess the potential demand for ring facilities, the demand and capacity across each screen line was analysed.

Trips crossing each screenline were further segregated into three general destination categories. Auto trips destined to the Central Business District (inside cordon 1) were defined as radial trips; trips destined to the fringe area surrounding the Central Business District (between cordons 1 and 2) were defined as fringe trips; auto trips destined to locations outside cordon 2, were defined as crosstown trips.

A74

The magnitude and direction of these three types of trips were summarized for Scenarios A, D, E, F and I and for the years 1981, 1986, 1991 and 2001. The demand across each screenline was compared to the available capacity, to identify and assess the priorities for bypass routes and ring facilities.

A7.4.7 Radial Trips

A tabulation of radial trips by the number of screenlines crossed for Scenarios A and D is presented in Tables 7.4 and 7.5. On average, slightly more than 60% of all auto radial trips were expected to cross three or more screenlines.

Central Business District radial trips crossing three or more screenlines, in most cases, were travelling at least a quarter of the way around the Central Business District, and were prime candidates for an inner ring distribution system.

A7.4.8 Fringe Trips

Crosstown demands for trips destined to the fringe areas of the Central Business District for both clockwise and counter-clockwise directions under the various land use assumptions are summarized in Tables 7.6 and 7.7. In general, demand in the clockwise direction was expected to be somewhat higher than that in the counter-clockwise direction. A comparison of demand to capacity for fringe trips revealed that a deficiency of about 1,000 pph was expected in Sectors 1, 3, 5, 6 and 7 in the counter-clockwise direction. In the clockwise direction a deficiency of about 1,000 pph to 2,000 pph was expected in Sectors 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7.

A75

TABLE 7:4 SCREENLINES CROSSED BY CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT - DESTINED AUTOMOBILE TRIPS (1981A) EXISTING AND COMMITTED

COUNTER CLOCKWISE AUTO TRIPS

CLOCKWISE AUTO TRIPS

SCREEN LINE

TOTAL TRIPS

% TRIPS CROSSING THE FOLLOWING NUMBER OF SCREENS 3 4 2 or more

TOTAL TRIPS

% TRIPS CROSSING THE FOLLOWING NUMBER OF SCREENS 2 3 4 or more

or or more more

EAST 1

2022

loo

2665

SOUTHEAST 2

3879

1863

Ioo

SOUTHWEST 3

4398

2472

NORTHWEST WEST 4 3581

3359

SOUTHWEST WEST 5 1796

loo

3976

NORTHWEST 6

2772

2724

100

NORTH 7

2733

1835

NORTHEAST 8

2177

1949

MEAN

2920

2605

PERCENT OF TRIPS CROSSING THREE OR MORE SCREENLINES = 61

TABLE 7.4

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TABLE 7.5 SCREENLINES CROSSED BY CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT â&#x20AC;&#x201D; DESTINED AUTOMOBILE TRIPS (19810) EXISTING AND COMMITTED

CLOCKWISE AUTO TRIPS

SCREEN LINE

TOTAL TRIPS

% TRIPS CROSSING THE FOLLOWING NUMBER OF SCREENS 2 3 4 ormore

COUNTER CLOCKWISE AUTO TRIPS

TOTAL

ormoreormore

% TRIPS CROSSING THE FOLLOWING NUMBER OF SCREENS 2 3 4 ormoreor.moreormore

EAST 1

3362

100

2166

SOUTHEAST 2

6247

1450

100

SOUTHWEST 3

9053

805

NORTHWEST WEST 4 3632

5952

SOUTHWEST WEST 5 1421

100

6364

NORTHWEST 6

2281

4212

100

NORTH 7

2166

2536

NORTHEAST 8

2406

1692

MEAN

3821

3147

PERCENT OF TRIPS CROSSING THREE OR MORE SCREENLINES = 62

TABLE 7.5

TABLE 7.6 FRINGE AUTO DEMAND MINUS CAPACITY ON THE EXISTING AND COMMITTED NETWORK - CLOCKWISE CAPACITY MINUS DEMAND CLOCKWISE MOVEMENT 1981 A

-2

-1

1986 A

-2

-1

1991 A

-2

-1

-2

-1

-2

-1

2001 A

-2

-1

-3

-2

-1

-3

-1

-2

-1

TABLE 7.7 FRINGE AUTO DEMAND MINUS CAPACITY ON THE EXISTING AND COMMITTED NETWORK - COUNTER CLOCKWISE CAPACITY MINUS DEMAND (Measured in arterial lanes) COUNTER CLOCKWISE MOVEMENT

1981 A

-1

1986 A

-1

1991 A

-1

2001 A

-1

-2

-1

-2

-1

-2

-1

TABLE 7.6 - 7.7

A78 A7.4.9 Crosstown Trips

Demand for crosstown trips across each screenline for both directions are presented in Tables 7.8 and 7.9. Employment locations in the area outside cordon 2 were not evenly distributed, which was expected to result in a somewhat unbalanced movement at many of the screenlines.

The deficiencies in ring facilities across the various screenlines are highlighted in Tables 7.8 and 7.9. For the clockwise crosstown trips, the available capacity was projected to be exceeded by 1,000 to 3-000 pph crossing screenlines 1, 4, 5 and 8. The capacity deficiency problem was less in the counter-clockwise direction. The average deficiency crossing screenlines 6 and 7 was about one arterial lane.

A7.4.10 River Crossings - Demand and Capacity Analysis

Most of the cities in Western Canada evolved around a major river system, which historically was the major transportation route before the coming of the railway. As these cities developed, the rivers became major barriers to movement, tending to constrain travel across the river because of limited crossings. The fact that the North Saskatchewan River bisects Edmonton, coupled with the fact that downtown Edmonton is located immediately to the north of the river, has traditionally placed a heavy demand for northbound movement during the morning peak hour on the bridges crossing the river. A demand and capacity analysis for river crossings, especially for auto trips, is essential in identifying critical constraints in the transportation network.

A set of cordons and screenlines, approximating the alignment of the river were selected and shown in Figure 7.17. Northbound and southbound auto demands are summarized by destination (using the categories previously described) in Tables 7.10 and 7.11.

TABLE 7.8 TABLE CROSSTOWN AUTO DEMAND ON THE EXISTING AND COMMITTED NETWORK - COUNTER CLOCKWISE CAPACITY MINUS DEMAND COUNTER CLOCKWISE MOVEMENT

1q81

186A

1991 A

-1

2001 A

-1

TABLE 7.9 POTENTIAL FOR ROADWAY RINGS - CLOCKWISE X-TOWN CAPACITY MINUS DEMAND CLOCKWISE MOVEMENT

1981 A

-1

1986 A

-1

-2

-1

1991 A

-2

-1

-2

-1

2001 A

-2

-4

-1

-3

-1

-3

-2

TABLE 78-7.9

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The absence of a bridge outside cordon 4 west of the Central Business District diverted close to 1,000 pph in both the northbound and southbound directions to the Quesnell Bridge in the year 2001 under Scenario A. This surcharge on the Quesnell Bridge was expected to place an even heavier burden on the critical southbound approach and to push the northbound approach to capacity.

Groat Bridge was the only bridge in the fringe area west of Central Business District and it was expected to be overloaded by trips destined for the University and the South Industrial areas in 1981, on the southbound lanes. The strain on the northbound lanes was expected to be lesser, and these did not become deficient until the mid 1990's.

Significant potential capacity deficiencies were projected for the northbound river crossings during the morning peak hour. The magnitude of this potential (equivalent to 6 - 14 arterial traffic lanes depending on the land use scenario) was significant.

River crossing capacity east of the Central Business District was expected to be adequate, with the exception of the Capilano Bridge, which showed signs of stress after 1991 in the southbound direction.

trans ortation s stem plan

A81

raj

e dwaisifs uon epo. sue.,

e dwoi sifs u one0 0. sue,

ue d woj sifs uonep o. su e'

ortation s stem plan transportation system plan

0 cordon no. screenline no

sector no.

iffamilmransportationSystem 1:11an E1 r. r

CORDON AND SCREEN SEGMENTS

nion

FIGURE 7.17

REPRESENTING RIVER CROSSINGS

s ortation system plan

t s

t t â&#x20AC;¢

t nsport t o

te pan

trans ortation s stem plan

A82

TABLE 7.10 AUTO DEMAND FOR RIVER CROSSINGS - SOUTHBOUND :Tossing East of Ctl.Bus.Dist. Crossing West of Ctl.Bus. Dist. X-Town X-Town X-Town X-Town Outer Inner Fringe Radial Fringe Inner Outer

1981 A

357

3866

3801

4607

1156

2602

1591

1981 D

269

2926

3601

7301

1156

2183

1556

1986 A

507

3607

3830

5005

1483

2752

1745

1991 A

619

3834

3873

4912

1446

3117

2045

1991 E

492

2861

3361

9576

992

2828

2057

1991 F

537

3373

3592

8733

1054

3043

2048

2001 A

920

4195

4263

4963

1632

3803

2546

2001 I

649

5687

4553

4963

1466

4465

2474

4000

3000

_ 9500

3000

_ 3000

6000

TABLE 7.11 AUTO DEMAND FOR RIVER CROSSINGS - NORTHBOUND Crossing East of Ctl.Bus.Dist.

Crossing West of Ctl.Bus.Dist.

X-Town Outer

X-Town Inner

Fringe

Radial

Fringe

X-Town Inner

1981 A

270

3918

2285

14,032

1369

2684

953

1981 D

3534

2414

19,079

1512

2608

806

1986 A

478

4398

2587

15,311

1422

2717

982

1991 A

627

4863

2833

15,207

1482

2787

1116

1991 E

288

3311

2339

25,629

1312

2042

875

1991 F

276

3856

2495

22,640

1348

2447

954

2001 A

1131

5081

3333

15,219

1588

2743

1238

2001 I

873

4637

3185

14,870

1408

2586

1031

6000

3000

9,500

3000

4000

Existing and Comm. Capacity

TABLE 7.10 -7.11