Edmonton (Alta.) - 1987-2000 - Socio-economic forecasts_1999-2004, City of Edmonton (1999-09) by Edmonton Tower Resource Centre Online Library

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SOCIO-ECONOMIC FORECAST

1999 - 2004 CITY OF EDMONTON

Prepared by City Forecast Committee September 1999

Â©

1999 by the City of Edmonton

Planning and Development Department c/o: 3 rd Floor, City Hall 1 Sir Winston Churchill Square Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T5J 2R7 The City of Edmonton provides this information in good faith but it gives no warranty nor accepts liability from any incorrect, incomplete or misleading information, or its use for any purpose.

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PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

Jong Huang (Chairperson)

KL. Siu

Chief Economist

General Supervisor, Strategic Planning

Planning and Development Department

Drainage Services Branch Asset Management & Public Works Department

Dana Oikawa Forecast Manager EPCOR Power Generation

Susan Ancel Senior Planning Engineer EPCOR Water Services

Rick Hersack Director of Research Economic Development Edmonton

Rod Keith Strategic Planning Officer Community Services Department

Alan Brownlee General Supervisor, Forecasting & Assessment Transportation and Streets Department

Staff Sgt. Joe Rodgers Planning & Evaluation Services Section Edmonton Police Service

Audra Jones General Supervisor, Traffic Planning Transportation and Streets Department

Don Pilling Fire Protection Engineer Emergency Response Department

Nila Chowdhury Senior Budget Consultant Corporate Services Department

Christina Ionescu Cost and Value Analyst Corporate Services Department

Patrick Walters Senior Economist Planning and Development Department

For more information contact: Jong Huang

phone: (780) 496-6068; fax: (780) 496-8450 email: jonq.huanq@qov.edmonton.ab.ca

Patrick Walters

phone: (780) 496-6070; fax: (780) 496-8450 email: patrick.walters@Cqov.edmonton.ab.ca

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

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Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City ofEdmonton Socio-Economic ~ TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......... I

15 ................ Construction.................................. Real EstateMarket........................................

Economic Growth............................... .................... 1 ECONOMIC FORECAST RISKS............................ 17

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates ......................... 1 Downside Risks to the Forecast...................... 17 Oil and Gas............................................................ 2 Upside Risks to the Forecast ........................ 17 2 Labour Market....................................................... ConstructionSector.............................................2 PART 2: SOCIAL FORECAST22 ............................ 2 PopulationChange.... .................... 22 .......... ..... CANADA.. CANADA..........3 3 Inflation ....................................................... .................. 23 ALBERTA ................. 3 Social Forecast................................................... ................. 25 EDMONTON ................................... DemographicChanges....................................... 26 Employment and Unemployment.......................... 27 . T.............................. he Family....................................... 27 29 Unemployment....................................... Youth 4 Business Sector ...................................................... 29 Education.................................. Sector..........................4 Government and the Public 29 Sector............... Not-for-Profit and Volunteer The 4 ........................................ FamiliesandIndividuals Poverty........................ . ..................... 30

IMPLICATIONS OF THE FORECAST

INTRODUCTION

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......................

PART 1: ECONOMIC

5 FORECAST ................................. ... . . UNITED STATES .................

................... 5

Health Services....................................... 31

31 Social Services............................... Crime and Violence........................................ 32 Recreation and Leisure ........................... 33

34 Festivals andMajor Events..................... Gaming and Video Lottery Terminals................... 34

35 SOCIAL FORECAST RISKS...............................

CANADA ......................................................... 5 APPENDICES ...........................36 7 ALBERTA ................................................................ 10 *EDMONTON Population ........................................... ......................................11 Appendix I: Northern Alberta Major Projects...... 36 P Population......................... ..... 11 12 Appendix II: Edmonton Census MetropolitanArea Output................................................................... 50 M ap ........................................ Labour Market..................................................... 13 *

14 Inflation ...............................................................

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

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Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

stronger resource prices and increased disposable incomes arising from lower income taxes. Also, increased government spending will contribute to economic growth.

Economic Growth.

Edmonton

Canada

The economy in the Edmonton Census Metropolitan

The Canadian economy grew by 3.0% in 1998 down from 3.7% in from 1997.3.7% T he ic growt growthh was economic The in econom w asR Depressed States. to the United driven by exports commodity prices and lower consumer spending restrained economic growth.

Area (Edmonton Region) grew at 1.5% in 1998 down e i from n w 5.5% s r t in a n1997. d by Economic h e c t nugrowth g i s ina ilthey Region was restrained by the continuing instability in the world economy. The total value of all goods and services produced in

The forecast assumes that the Canadian economic growth will average 3.0% in 1999 and 2.5% from 2000 to 2003, in response to slower growth in the United States, higher short-term interest rates and a stronger Canadian dollar. Slower growth in the U.S. result in a moderation in the growth of the export sector. High short-term interest rates and slower employment growth will reduce consumer

the Edmonton Region will grow by 2.8% in 1999, as energy prices firm and businesses provide services to a recovering energy sector. With the beginning of construction on the Scotford refinery and other major heavy oil projects and the City builds facilities to host the 8h World Championship in Athletics in 2001, economic growth will increase to 3.5% in 2000 and 3.2% in 2001. This will be slightly higher

and business confidence. Also, a stronger exchange

than the provincial average. With the completion of

rate will have a dampening effect on aggregate demand. The modest increases in employment and wages will support consumer spending and housing activity in the domestic economy. In addition,

increased government spending will add stimulus to the economy.. the economy. Alberta

The Alberta economic growth in 1998 was estimated at 1.8% down from 8.0% in 1997. Consumer spending, government fixed capital spending and business spending on machinery and equipment drove the economic expansion. d The growth in Alberta will average 3.0% annually from 1999 to 2002, up from 1.8% in 1998. Growth will be driven by stronger gas prices, increased business investment in petro-chemical and electricity plants, and increased government expenditures. Households will enjoy larger incomes as both Consumer employment and wages increase. expenditures will increase, as net migration remains positive. The growth rate will accelerate to 3.5% in 2003 and 2004, as the world economic recovery gathers momentum and the province benefits from

these major construction projects, Edmonton would grow, below the provincial average rate, at 2.7% in 2002, 3.0% in 2003 and 2004.

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates The prime rate will average 6.7% in 1999, up from 6.6% in 1998. The instability in the global economy and weakness in resource prices will cause the Bank of Canada to maintain interest rates relatively high in order to defend the dollar. With the strengthening of economic growth in the rest of the world in 2000, inflationary pressures will become evident in the U.S. economy. As the U.S. Federal Reserve Board raises short-term rates to curb inflation, the Bank of Canada will follow suit. Consequently, the prime rate will rise to 7.0% in 2000. As the U.S. economy slows and inflationary pressures are controlled, the U.S. short-term rates will be lowered to stimulate growth. Therefore, Canadian short-term rates will also be lowered. The prime rate will average 6.8% in 2001 and 6.0% in 2003 and 2004. The Canadian dollar averaged US$0.67 in 1998 down from US$0.72 in 1997, as the global economy and international commodity markets weakened.

Preparedby.: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City ofEdmonton

The tentative recovery in Southeast Asia and the strengthening of energy prices have halted the dollar. Canadian slide of the downward Consequently, the dollar will hold-steady at US$0.67 for the year. With economic growth firming in the rest of the world by 2000, the currency will gain strength and recover to average US$0.69 in 2000 and US$0.72 in 2003 and 2004. Oil and Gas Given general compliance with announced production cuts, continuing signs of economic recovery in Asia, declines in world crude oil inventories and the speculative forces unleashed by these events, world oil prices have more than doubled since the spring. The price for West Texas Intermediate rose from less than US$12 per barrel at the end of February to over $24 today. the recent OPEC agreement to Notwithstanding Notwithstanding the recent OPEC agreement to maintain current production quotas, the recovery in prices and concerns about possible shortages this winter are expected to lead to an increase in global production levels toward the end of the year. Consequently, the price for WTI is expected to ease somewhat, averaging around US$18.50 per barrel for 1999. Beyond that, world demand is expected to continue its recovery. Assuming that producers are largely successful in balancing production with the rising global demand, WTI prices are expected to increase steadily, averaging around US$21 per barrel in 2004. With last year's expansion of pipeline capacity to the United States re-establishing the link between

operations are expected to place continued upward pressure on gas prices over the next few years. Consequently, the forecast calls for the AECO price to rise steadily to over $3.00 per GJ by 2004. Labour Market The forecast calls for employment to grow by 7,000 persons to a total of 489,000 in 1999, as the Edmonton Region adjusts to firmer energy prices. By 2000, total employment will average 499,000 persons and this will increase to 525,000 persons by 2004.

Construction Sector The construction activity in the Edmonton Region will moderate in 1999 from its 1998 level. Housing starts are expected to range between 4,700 and 5,300 units per year in the Region and 2,800 to 3,400 units in the City over the forecast period.

Office space vacancy rates will decline gradually over the forecast period as the economic activity and employment opportunities continue to improve, resulting in higher positive net office absorption rates.

The apartment vacancy rate will decline in the early phase of the forecast period, as positive net migration to the Region remains relatively strong. Further into the forecast, the apartment vacancy rate as net migration moderates and will trend upwards new apartment units are placed on the market.

Canadian and U.S. natural gas prices, sweltering summer temperatures in eastern U.S. markets and the prospect of a severe hurricane season disrupting U.S. Gulf coast production combined to drive up natural gas prices across North America. Assuming that Gulf coast production facilities survive the hurricane season relatively unscathed, speculative pressures are expected to ease and continental gas prices should drop back from recent highs. Thus, prices at the AECO storage facility in southern Alberta are expected to average around $2.60 per GJ in 1999. The completion of the Alliance pipeline in 2000 and delays in natural gas drilling programs arising from reduced cash flows from recent oil

Population Change The Edmonton population growth will be modest. Net migration for the Region (See Appendix II for Edmonton CMA boundaries) is expected to range between 6,200 to 9,000 persons per year over the forecast period. The City will receive about sixty percent of the Region's net migration. Edmonton's population is expected to increase at an average rate of 1.4% per year from 648,000 in 1999 to 693,000 in 2004. The population in the Edmonton Region will rise from 905,500 in 1999 to 964,600 in 2004.

1999 City Forecast September Committee,by:

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Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City ofEdmonton

The high school resident population, age 15-19 years, will decline slightly over the forecast period. Consequently, the demand for high school space is likely to decline,

In May 1999, average weekly earnings for all employees across Canada were virtually unchanged from April and about the same level as in May 1998. The annual growth rate of average weekly earnings has been under 1.0% since January 1999 and has also been below the annual growth rate of the Consumer Price Index since January. Employment remained virtually unchanged in May. For the fourth year in a row, taxfilers relied less on transfer payments as a source of income in 1997.

The post secondary resident population, 20 - 24 age group, is projected to decline by 7,789 persons over the forecast period. Therefore, the demand for space at post secondary institutions in the region, by the resident population, will fall during this period.

Although the majority of new jobs created recently have been full-time, most families have not yet seen significant increases in their incomes. The pattern of household income distribution in Edmonton has changed relatively little over the 1990s.

The individuals in the 15-24 age group comprise the pool of first time labour market entrants. This pool of potential labour market entrants will shrink over 1999-2004 period.

Although the number of owner-occupied residences has increased since 1991, the stock of rental units has declined slightly over the same period.

The population will continue to age. Those less than 45 years will account for 64.3% of the total population in 2004, down from 68.1% in 1999. The population in the 65+ age group is projected to rise to 11.7% in 2004, from 11.5% in 1999.

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............

The 55-64 years age group, the pre-retirement age

cohort, is projected to grow by 11,145 persons over

the forecast period. Therefore, the number of individuals who could potentially leave the labour force is much greater than those who can potentially enter it.

Nationally, crime rates continue to fall, but are still almost double those of thirty years ago. The increase in the 75+ age group and the city's Aboriginal population over the forecast period will see increased demand for health services and supportive housing.

IThe

improved economy, increasing number of jobs, increased Child Tax Benefit and Alberta Family Employment Tax Credit will result in a decrease in h depth and extent of poverty for some of the * The inflation rate will rise modestly from 0.9% inthe omet esd en po wt w to the range of 2.0% to 2.5% over the forecast *1998 developments These children. with poor working period as the increased demand for resources and may, however, have mixed impacts on some low pressures on resource prices and 0labour exert upward income families. Some families may find that they labour costs no better off when supported by insecure, lowlare paying jobs than they were when they were dependent on social assistance. Low income will Social Forecast remain a significant issue for a large segment of The federal and provincial governments have both Edmontonians. recently announced funding initiatives for health, education and social programs. Over the next few years, Edmonton will host several national and international sporting competitions, and The province has instituted a number of possibly several world championships. The city will enhancements to programs and services for children, realise many benefits because of these events. particularly children in low-income families and 0 children at risk. Inflation

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmoon However, over the same period, the public sector must deal with:

IMPLICATIONS OF THE FORECAST

* Business Sector Business Sector

* Over the forecast period, Edmonton's business community is expected to benefit from:

* low inflation, *

* * * *

Sschool

increased spin-off from investment activity in energy, pipeline and resource-related projects in northern Alberta, a modest growth in housing construction, modest employment and income growth, a large supply of relatively low-cost downtown office space, and modest population growth.

However, during the

same

period,

businesses must adjust to: *

* * * * *

an uncertain economic environment, as fluctuating resource prices affect cash flows, investment and hiring plans, a relatively slower population growth, a reduction in the number of individuals in the 15-24 age groups, the ageing of the "baby-boomers", an increase in the 55-64 age group, a shrinking pool of new labour market entrants, and a growing pool of potential retirees.

low inflation,

increased spending on education, health care provincial by the and transportation government, and improved oil and gas prices.

a health and social support system under

some stress due to increased demand arising from the demographic change. from the demographic change.

0 Over the forecast period, Edmontonians are expected to benefit from: * *

greater employment opportunities, and some moderation in the depth of poverty for the working poor with children.

However, Edmontonians must also deal with:

Over the next few years, Edmonton's government and public sector will benefit from: an improved economic outlook for the province and an increase in employment opportunities,

Families and Individuals

Government and the Public Sector

rising child welfare case loads. homelessness, and and helt

Edmonton

continued municipal revenue shortfalls, continued fiscal restraint at the provincial and federal government levels, decline of the number of secondary school aged people in the total population, decline of the number of post-secondary aged people in the total population, excess supply of space and a slower increase in real estate prices inthe dsowentown non-crease residential mapries in the downtown non-ts, the number of potential retirees will exceed the number of first-time labour market entrants, an increase in population, with an increasing proportion of seniors.

Committee,by: September City Forecast 1999

Preparedby. City Forecast Committee, September 1999

a slow rise in wages,

providing more care for aged relatives, health care and education systems in a slow recovery from deep funding cuts, and families that are under greater stress, because of insecure jobs offering low or no benefits, plus the added concern of high debt and depleted saving.

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SoeJo-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

INTRODUCTION

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This report provides a forecast of major economic and social indicators for the years 1999 to 2004. The forecast is used as a reference for the preparation of the 2000-2002 corporate and departmental business plans and 2000 departmental budgets. In addition, other public agencies, citizens and businesses could use the forecast for planning

purposes.

* *

The City Forecast Committee undertakes monitoring and forecasting for economic and social activities throughout the year. The forecast report is prepared semi-annually, in the spring and in the fall.

changes will be transmitted to the U.S. economy as higher prices for imported goods. Also the recovery of the Southeast Asian economies would reduce the flow of capital from that area to the U.S. treasury The U.S. dollar will depreciate and market. inflationary pressures will become evident in the U.S. economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board will move to hike short-term interest rates to curb inflation in 2000. The consumer and business purchase of interest sensitive items will be negatively affected. This will result in a moderation in the growth of aggregate demand. The U.S. economic growth rate will, therefore, trend downwards to its long-term potential of 2.0% by 2003 and 2004.

CANADA

PART 1: ECONOMIC

The Canadian economy will grow at 3.0% in 1999,

FORECAST

2.5% from 2000 to 2003 and 3.0% in 2004.

0 *

UNITED STATES

The U.S. economy will grow at 3.5% in 1999, slow to 2.5% in 2000 and 2.0% by 2004.

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After an extended period of growth, the United States economy grew by 4.3% in first quarter of 1999 down from 6.0% in the fourth quarter 1998. This expansion is driven by gains in employment and in stock prices, which have fuelled spending on consumer goods and house construction. Even with the unemployment rate around 4.0%, inflation remains modest.

The Canadian economy grew by 4.2% in the first quarter of 1999 down from 4.8% in the fourth quarter 1998. Unlike, previous quarters, economic growth was broadly based. Domestic demand rose sharply, expanding by 4.4%. Business spending was influenced by the need to upgrade informationprocessing systems, partly to solve the Y2K problem, and to add additional plant and equipment. In addition, economic growth was driven by exports to the United States. The U.S. economy, despite having an unemployment rate close to 4.0%, surged ahead in 1999 and created a growing demand for Canadian exports.

The forecast assumes that the U.S. economy will loose momentum in the second half of 1999 and thus grow by 3.5% for the year. By 2000, economic growth will decelerate to 2.5%, as tightness in the labour market constrains economic expansion,

With the U.S economy losing momentum in the second half of 1999, the Canadian economy is unlikely maintain its first quarter 1999 growth rate for the remainder of the year. Consequently, the Canadian economic growth will decrease over the remainder of the year and average 3.0% for 1999.

The forecast also assumes that the economic recovery in Southeast Asia that began in 1999 will strengthen in 2000. This would reduce the excess supply of commodities on world markets and produce a firming of their prices. These price

The forecast assumes that political stability will prevail throughout the forecast period. The issue of Quebec's place in Canada will not have an impact on Canadian short-term interest rates and economic growth.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

Business and consumer spending will moderate in the first half of 2000 as computer system upgrades and purchases to fix the Y2K computer glitch are completed. In addition, the general uncertainty regarding the possible failure of computer systems and their impact on the economy will add to the reluctance to spend. Higher short-term interest rates will also suppress spending. Spending will return to normal levels in the second half of the year as businesses and individuals are assured about the safety of the computer systems.

Economic Growth

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Source: Statistics Canada, City Porecaut Committee

will The forecast assumes that the Canadian dollar appreciate and the U.S. economy would slow further in 2000. The combination of a stronger Canadian dollar and a slower growing U.S. economy would result in a reduction in the growth rate of Canadian exports to the United States. However, the Canadian economy would benefit from increased exports to a recovering world economy, improved consumer spending stemming from growing employment and labour income, increased government spending and strong business investment. strength in Southeast Asia and With growth gaining strength in Southeast Asia and other emerging markets, commodity prices will firm and begin to increase and export volumes will also The run on the Canadian dollar will grow. moderate. This will permit the Bank of Canada to loosen monetary policy as the Canadian dollar

The prime lending rate averaged 6.6% in 1998, up from 5.0% in 1997. The sharp increase in the prime lending rate resulted from the Bank of Canada's fight against inflation in the early part of 1998. As the Canadian dollar came under attack in international markets in the 2 nd and 3 rd quarters of 1998, the Bank of Canada shifted its emphasis from fighting inflation to defending the value of the dollar. In both instances, the Bank of Canada increased its bank rate. Consequently, the primelending rate rose from 4.75% in September 1997 to However, as the 7.25% in September 1998. economy weakened in the 3rd quarter of 1998, the Bank of Canada's strategy shifted to stimulating economic growth by lowering its bank rate. Therefore, the prime lending rate declined from

appreciates appreciates in in 2001. 2001. With With interest interest rates rates at at lower lower restructure to able be will levels again, consumers their debts at reduced rates. This will lower interest costs and increase personal disposable incomes. Therefore, the sales of interest sensitive items such as cars and homes will benefit. In addition,

the prime lending rate declined from Therefore, 7.25% in September 1998 to 5.25% in December

increased government spending will boost domestic

term interest rates encouraged the flight of capital to

demand, as governments that have controlled their finances will re-invest in the economy. From 2000 to 2003, the Canadian economic growth rate would average 2.5%. d Canadian economic growth is expected to increase to 3.0% in 2004, as the world economic growth continues. The Canadian economy will grow at a faster rate than the U.S. economy from 2003 to 2004, because of the Canadian economy's greater reserve of unused capacity.

the U.S. treasury market. The continuation of these conditions in 1999 will cause the Bank of Canada to maintain short-term interest rates at a relatively high level to defend the dollar. Therefore, the primelending rate will average 6.7% in 1999, despite a high rate of unemployment. With the U.S. economy exhibiting signs of inflation, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board would move to hike short-term interest rates in 2000. In order to defend the Canadian dollar, the Bank of Canada will also increase Canadian short-term interest rates. The prime rate will increase to 7.0% in 2000. As the

1998.

The combination of depressed commodity prices, the instability of world financial markets and a negative differential between the Canadian and U.S. short-

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

0! Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

0 * 0 *

U.S. economy slows in response to tighter monetary policy, short-term interest rates will be lowered in the United States. The Bank of Canada will match these short-term interest rate cuts. Therefore, the prime-lending rate will average 6.8% in 2001 and decline to 6.0% in 2003 and 2004.

Prime Lending Rate

* 0

Canada/U.S. short-term interest rate differential shifted from a positive 125 basis points spread in 1992 to a negative differential of 350 basis points in 1997. The negative differential improved to 225 basis points in 1998. The tentative recovery of the Southeast Asian economies and the strengthening of energy prices have halted the downward slide in the Canadian dollar. The dollar will hold at US$0.67 in 1999. With economic growth resumed in the world economy by 2000, the currency will strengthen and recover to average US$0.69 in 2000 and US$0.72 by 2004.

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Canadian Dollar .

2 1

Exchange Rates

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Source: Bank of Canada, City Forecast Committee

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The Canadian dollar averaged US$0.67 in 1998, down from US$0.72 in 1997 and US$0.73 in 1996. *

The Canadian dollar came under relentless attack in international currency markets in 1998. This arose from several factors: the Asian economic crisis, the implosion of the Russian economy, the sharp decline in world commodity prices, and a negative Canada/U.S. short-term interest rate spread.

The Asian economic crisis and the collapse of the Russian economy panicked foreign investors into seeking safe haven status in the U.S. treasury market. Investors sold the Canadian dollar in preference to the U.S. dollar. The collapse of the

* *

Asian economies resulted in a significant reduction in their demand for commodities. This created an excess supply of commodities on world markets and

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Source: Bak of Canada, City ForecaSt Committee

ALBERTA Alberta will grow above the nationalaverage. The economy will grow at 3.0% annuallyfrom 1999 to 2002 and 3.5% by 2003 and 2004.

forced commodity prices downward.

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Lower commodity prices and a strong demand by Canadians for imports resulted in a worsening of the Canadian current account balance. The current account shifted from a $1.6 billion surplus in the third quarter of 1996 to a $4.4 billion deficit by the fourth quarter of 1998. A negative Canada/US interest rate differential made investing in the United States much more attractive than in Canada. The

The Alberta economy expanded by 1.8% in 1998, down from the unsustainable rate of 8.0% in 1997. The export sector acted as a drag on the province's overall economic performance in 1998, as the province adjusted to slower growth in Southeast Asia and Latin America. The recession in those countries resulted in lower oil prices, smaller export volumes for commodities and reduced cash flows for some sectors of the Alberta economy. In 1998,

Preparedby.: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

SSocio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton commodity exports totalled $30.5 billion, down from $33.7 billion in 1997, or by 9.4%. Agricultural products (-24.1%) refined petroleum and coal (16.7%), primary metal products (-16.3%) and oil, gas and sulphur (-16.3) suffered the largest declines, Corporate profits fell from $15.9 billion in 1997 to $11.4 billion in 1998. Non-residential construction fell from $13.0 billion in 1997 to $11.4 billion in 1998. For example, the number of rigs drilling in Alberta fell from 310 in 1997 to 223 in 1998. Consumer spending supported economic growth, up by 3.0%, after adjusting for inflation. Retail sales grew to $28.1 billion in 1998, up from $26.9 billion in 1997. Consumer spending was driven by growth in wages and salaries, which rose to $51.8 billion in 1998 from $48.7 billion in 1997 or by 6.6%. Employment in 1998 averaged 1,533,400 up from 1,483,400 in 1997 or by 3.4%. The total value of building permits issued in 1998 was $5.5 billion up from $4.4 billion in 1997, or by 25%. Business spending on machinery and equipment remained strong, up by 19.9%, as businesses updated their plant and equipment to fix problems posed by the y2k bug. Also, government fixed capital spending grew 14.5%.

be a positive factor in the province's economic expansion since this will contribute to increased cash flow for the energy sector and the provincial government. In turn, this will enhance the ability of the business and government sectors to spend. Both the Alberta and the Canadian government finances have improved in recent years. This has allowed both levels of government to produce budgets that provide for a mixture of tax cuts and increased government spending in such areas as health care and education. Government expenditures, which in recent years were a retardant on growth, will become Thus, economic activity will be simulative. stimulated in other sectors of the economy. Business and consumer confidence will improve and lead to increased domestic spending. Consumer expenditures will increase at a slower rate as individuals attempt to reduce their debt levels. This will act as drag on the province's overall economic performance. Northern Alberta Major Projects Surnmry ($millionl Alberta Sector 1,226

682

2,653

Corrrmrdal/Retail

2,653 2,279

Forestry & Related Infrastructure Institutional

1,236 4,414 1,264

1,236 2,731 565

123

258

21,871 331

21,501 284

5,650 1,380

5,638 1,269

642

250

72 1.633 45,030

11 360

Agriculture &Related

GrChericals Economic Econom ic Growth Alberta & Edmonton

Alberta M Edmonton

& Petrocherr

Manufacturing SMning

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of.

il,gas & olsands Industrial

4Other

Pipelines Pow r

Sorce:Statistics Canada,City Forecast Committe.

Residential Alberta's economic growth will average 3.0% from 1999 to 2002 as construction continues on several major petrochemical, pipeline, electricity and heavy oil projects, and consumer spending increases in response to improved job prospects and growing labour incomes. The firming of energy prices will

North

Teleconrminications Tourismrecreation Total

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

690

38,224

Sources: 1.2=onn

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Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City ofEdmonton 0

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Non-residential construction is expected to grow Alberta significantly over the forecast period. Economic Development estimates the total value of major projects in Alberta, worth $2 million or more, that are planned, underway, or have been recently completed, at $45.0 billion, as at June 1999. (See Appendix I for the complete list of major projects for Northern Alberta). * From 2003 to 2004, the growth rate will improve to 3.5%. Increased government spending will add further stimulus to the economy. Higher oil and commodity prices, precipitated by an improvement of the world economy, along with lower interest rates will act as a boost to economic growth. In addition, growth will be stimulated by strong gas provincial government sales, more stable expenditures, growing labour incomes and increased consumer spending, positive net migration, and ' investment in the energy sectors.

prices across North America. Assuming that Gulf coast production facilities survive the hurricane season relatively unscathed, speculative pressures are expected to ease and continental gas prices should drop back from recent highs. Thus, prices at the AECO storage facility in southern Alberta are expected to average around $2.60 per GJ in 1999. The completion of the Alliance pipeline in 2000 and delays in natural gas drilling programs arising from reduced cash flows from recent oil operations are expected to place continued upward pressure on gas prices over the next few years. Consequently, the forecast calls for the AECO price to rise steadily to over $3.00 per GJ by 2004.

World Oil Prices (US iB arrei) (US$1Barrel) 25

Given

general

compliance

with

announced

production cuts, continuing signs of economic recovery in Asia, declines in world crude oil inventories and the speculative forces unleashed by these events, world oil prices have more than" doubled since the spring. The price for West Texas

Intermediate rose from less than US$12 per barrel at the end of February to over $24 today. Notwithstanding the recent OPEC agreement to 0maintain current production quotas, the recovery in prices and concerns about possible shortages this winter are expected to lead to an increase in global production levels toward the end of the year. Consequently, the price for WTI is expected to ease somewhat, averaging around US$18.50 per barrel for 1999. Beyond that, world demand is expected to 0continue its recovery. Assuming that producers are * largely successful in balancing production with the rising global demand, WTI prices are expected to increase steadily, averaging around US$21 per barrel * in 2004.

With last year's expansion of pipeline capacity to the the re-establishing United States United re-establishing States the link link between between Canadian and U.S. natural gas prices, sweltering summer temperatures in eastern U.S. markets and the prospect of a severe hurricane season disrupting U.S. Gulf coast production combined to drive up

,Â°

Alberta Natural Gas Price ($1G.J.)

mlll

.llllli

. 2.,Â°

,. Source:

Alberta Energy.

7City Forecast so Committee 11 1

The net migration to Alberta from other provinces and countries was estimated at 45,800 persons over

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

City Forecast C...ommittee .. Source:

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

the period of May 1997 to April 1998, up from 36,300 over the same period of 1996-1997. The net migration should fall to 38,000 over 1998-1999 as the pace of economic expansion moderates. As the rate of job creation slows, job seekers from other provinces will find Alberta slightly less attractive, Thus, net migration will fall to 32,000 over 19992000 and 25,000 per year over 2002-2004. The forecast assumes that the Alberta unemployment rate will remain below the Canadian rate for the entire forecast period.

impact on the Edmonton economy over the next five years: a

The 8th World Championships in Athletics in 2001 in the City of Edmonton is expected to have a net . impact (direct, indirect and induced) of about $203 million on Alberta. Of this amount, $157 million will be spent in the Edmonton Region. In addition, Edmonton will also be hosting the 2001 World Triathlon championships. SThe City of Edmonton is spending $145 million to upgrade and expand its sewer

system.

Net Migration Alberta l

EPCOR plans to spend $115 million between 2000 - 2002 to upgrade the Rossdale Generating Plant.

TransAlta Enterprises is completing construction of its $80 million garbage plant at Clover Bar. This project will generate 400 construction jobs and 50 permanent jobs.

The consolidation of all scheduled passenger

muuuhhlmull 0 40

2.composter

0 96

90 98

Â°

flights at the Edmonton International Airport

Canada, City Forecast Commltt.. .urc.:Statistics

and construction of the terminal is expected to increase traffic from 1.9 million passengers to about 2.7 million at the airport. The construction of the airport will cost $170 million to $250 million over the next five years.

EDMONTON The Edmonton economy will grow at 28% in 1999, 3.5% in 2000,3.2% in 2001 and 3.0% in 2004.

in 1997. About 3,500 construction jobs will

The Edmonton economy will benefit from the growth in consumer and government spending and the economic spin-off from investment in northern Alberta. Economic Development Edmonton estimated the proposed and planned northern Alberta Major Projects at $38.2 billion in July 1999. The projects listed represent roughly 85% of the value of all major projects planned for the province of Alberta. In addition to the investment projects in the energy and forestry sectors, as mentioned in the preceding section, the following projects will have a significant

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

Camrose Development Ltd. is building a $250 million retail complex on a 300-acre site at 23 Avenue and Calgary Trail, starting

be created over the next five years. Christenson Developments has started construction of a $40 million commercial and townhouse complex in the downtown. Construction will last to 2001. Cineplex Odeon is spending $25 million to construct an entertainment complex in South Edmonton Common. Construction should be completed by 2000.

2II

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

SThe

Capital Health Authority is spending $35 million on renovations to the University of Alberta Centre. STlinked

* *

The

City

Edmonton

will

spend

approximately $50 million in the next seven years to upgrade the Gold Bar wastewater e e lart taet to uerael plant to the tertiary treatment level. S

PEdmonton Population Erefinery Edmonton's population is expected to increase by 1.4% per year from 648,284 in 1999 to 693,274 in

-2004. T *The

City of Edmonton's 1999 census placed the City's population at 648,284, up from the April 1999 estimate of 641,258. The April 1999 estimate was derived from the 1996 Federal Census, after adjusting for changes in net migration and natural increase. The largest differences between the 1999 civic census and the April 1999 estimate occurred in

and 6,000 people per year for the City of Edmonton and between 6,200 and 9,000 for the Edmonton CMA. Net-migration for Edmonton is strongly to differences in unemployment rates between Edmonton and the rest of Canada. Unemployment epl Abaa Edmonton and rates for Edmonton and Alberta are expected to r decline relative to the rest of Canada over the forecast period. Net-migration for the City of is expected to amount to 6,000 a year for 2000 and 2001 as construction on the Scotford proceeds. The forecast assumes that all of the temporary workers in the Edmonton Region will settle in the City of Edmonton because the City has the largest stock of rental accommodation. With the completion of the refinery in 2002, net-migration for the City of Edmonton is expected to decrease slightly to 4,200 by the year 2004. The other component of population change, natural increase, is forecast to decline as the number of deaths increases as the population ages.

the 20-34 and 65-69 age groups. The 1999 census

0 0 *

* *

showed the 20-34 at 10,486 and the 65-69 at 1,479 higher than the April 1999 estimate. The census results support the argument that the younger labour force participants tend to be highly mobile. It indicated a high level of positive net-migration in the young adult group (ages 20 to 24) over the last three years. Over the 1996-1999 period, the Edmonton region had a healthy labour market. Migrants came to the region mainly in search of employment and to Comparisons between the 1996 Federal retire. Census and the 1999 Civic Census established total net migration, in that period, at 17,200. This is much higher than the April 199 estimate of 10,600. As a result of the significant differences in net migration estimates, the age structure of the current projection differs from the April 1999 result. * The City's population is forecast to increase to 693,000 by 2004, up from 648,284 in 1999 (Table 2). The population of the Edmonton CMA (Census Metropolitan Area) is expected to increase by some 59,000 over the forecast period reaching nearly 965,000 by the year 2004 (Table 3. See Appendix II for the boundaries of the Edmonton CMA). Annual net-migration is expected to range between 4,000

Edmonton Population City and C.M.A. muggiII

mmml 144

UCA

,o _Iy C Sol

20*

* Source: Slaisti s

*s Canda, City

a a , Faoa Co.mmittee..

Edmonton's population, in common with Canada, continues to age. Those aged less than forty-five will account for 64.3% of the population in 2004, down from 68.1% in 1999. The number of people in the 65+ age group is forecast to increase by nearly 7,000 by 2004, accounting for 12% of the population. The 20 to 24 year age groups is forecast to decrease by nearly 8,000 over the forecast period as the smaller age group of 15 to 19 year-olds moves into that group. People in the 15 to 24 age group comprise the pool of first-time labour market entrants and this group is expected to decrease by

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

.. Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton . about 8,000 over the 1999 to 2004 period. The 35 to 44 age group is forecast to remain unchanged in size. The largest growth will occur in the 45 to 54 group (up 20,000) and the 55 to 64 group (up 11,000).

the situation where the number of individuals who could potentially leave the labour force will be greater than those who can potentially enter it.

by Age Population Distribution city of Edmonton

Edmonton Net igration Migration Net M Edmonton

imuuui mu..

City of Edmonton

City and C.M.A.

,14

o 03 08

o 074 0

000

0-14

-3

15-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

Source: Planning and Development Deptr the City of Edmonton. September 1999.

Source: Statistics Coneda, Ciry Forecast Committee

This changing age composition has important implications for various sectors of the economy. For

Output

example:

The economy of the Edmonton Region will grow at 2.8% in 1999, 3.5% in 2000 and between 2.7% to 3.2% over 2001 to 2004.

example:

* The decline in the resident high school population, age 15-19 years, will result in a reduction of the demand for high school space. * The drop in the resident post-secondary population, individuals age 20 - 24 years, will result in a reduction in the demand for space at post-secondary institutions in the region, by this population. * The population in the 15-24 years age group is

generally the soure of first time labour generally the source of first time labour

Consequently, the shrinking market entrants. marketoentrantta'sonuequentsycttresahrinkin of this pool will cause employers to experience difficulties in staffing positions that depend on first time labour market that depend on first time labour market entrants. The large increase in the 45 to 54 group and the 55 to 64 group will continue to support demand for more expensive housing and space requirements housingwhose for people haveunged ecase the chiren have because changedtheir children have moved away from home. The strong growth of 55-64 years age group relative to the 20-24 age group will result in

The economic growth in 1998 was estimated at The 1998 1.3%, down from 6.0% in 1997. economic growth in Edmonton slowed from the 1997 pace, as lower commodity prices resulted in a reduction in the export values. However, this was partly offset by investments in natural gas, heavy oil

and petro-chemicals. Economic growth was further

stimulated by the reversal of the 5% wage roll back on Alberta's public sector salaries. . The economic growth will increase to 2.8% in 1999 as increased exports from the Region acts a stimulant to economic growth. The firming of stimulant to economic growth. le firming of energy prices in 1999 has resulted in increased The revenues for the provincial government. economy will be driven by business spending and increased government expenditures in the areas of health care, education and transportation. In addition, growth in consumer spending will remain positive in response to an increase in employment and wage income.

Preparedby.: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City ofEdmonton..

0 * 0 * 0from * 0

The total value of all goods and services in the Region's economy will grow by 3.5% in 2000 and 3.2% in 2001. Economic growth in the Region will be slightly higher than the provincial average of 3.0% in 2000 and 2001. The Region will benefit construction of the Shell Canada's $1.8 billion heavy oil upgrader, the Air Liquide's $150 million gas processing and electricity generating complex at Scotford, located 40 km northeast of Edmonton and EPCOR's $115 million upgrade of the Rossdale Generating Plant. In addition, the construction of facilities for hosting the 8 th World Championship in Athletics in 2001 will add additional stimulus to the local economy. With the end of construction for Scotford and the 2001 World Games, the Region is expected to grow below the provincial average. Economic growth will Economic growth will average 2.7% in 2002. increase to 3.0% in 2003 and 2004, as the provincial economy grows at faster pace and the Edmonton Region fom the benefits economic impact.

health care and social assistance (17.5%) were the fastest growing industries. Industries experiencing negative growth included public administration (9.3%) and trade (-3.4%).

Employment by Industry Edmonton C.M.A. (000) 1988 1997 Industry Total

7.3

6.9

9.8 3.3 26.9 37.5 329.8

14.1 3.6 27.8 46.9 376.6

15.0 2.8 32.9 380.8

Trade Transportation & Warehousing

72.6

79.9

77.4

24.1

25.1

Finance, Insurance Real Estate & Leasing Professional, Scientific & Technical Serv.

23.8 22.0

25.7 30.4

25.9 28.7 31.4

Mgmt. Administrative & other Support Educational Services Health Care & Social Services Information, Culture & Recreation

10.6 32.7

17.9 33.1

16.7 33.1

Accommodation and Food Services

37.2 22.7 26.3

46.9 20.8 33.0

53.4 28.3 30.0

Other Services

21.3

34.6

29.9

Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil & Gas Utilities Construction

Manufacturing

Services-Producing Sector

43.7

The unemployment rate will average 6.0% in 1999, and range between 5.8% to 6.0% between 2000 and 2004.

1998.

The Edmonton Regional employment growth between 1988 and 1998 was broadly based, as fourteen of the sixteen industries experienced positive growth. The total employment grew by 1.8% annually between 1988 and 1998. The fastest growing industries were agriculture (28.3%), management, administrative and other support (5.7%) and forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas The industry divisions experiencing (5.3%). negative growth were public administration (-2.9%), and utilities (-1.5%). The employment in the public administration division fell from 36,400 in 1988 to 25,900 in 1998.

The forecast calls for employment to grow by 7,000 to 489,000 in1999, as the Edmonton Region benefits from firmer energy prices. By 2000, total employment will average 499,000 persons and this will increase to 525,000 persons by 2004.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

101.3

1.8

Agriculture

The total employment in the Region was estimated at 482,100 persons in 1998, an increase of 5,800 or 1.4% over the 1997 estimate. This is down from its long-term employment growth rate of 1.8%. Information, culture and recreation (33.0%) and

99.7

25.9 29.3 36.4 Public Administration Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review,

Spersons

482.1

79.3

Labour Market

476.3

Goods-Producing Sector

Region from the benefits economic impact.

1998

409.0

Employment Edmonton C.M.A. ml ulm lii

" 420,

$ Source: Statistics Canada,City ForecastComnmliee

CndCoca

Cmmit

Q0 Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton The unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in 1998, down from 6.9% in 1997 and 8.5% in 1996. As job opportunities improve in the Edmonton Region, individuals who had given up looking for work will be attracted back to the labour market. Therefore, the forecast expects the unemployment rate to fall slightly to 6.0% in 1999 and 5.8% in 2000 and remain at that rate until 2001, before rising to 6.0% in 2002 and 2003. As the provincial growth rate improves to 3.5% in 2004 from 3.0% in 2003, the Edmonton Regional unemployment rate will fall to 5.8% in 2004.

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Edmonton C.M.A. Edmonton

mmmuu l l a

I.was

felt.

i , 2

0t.

Â°,

Source: Statistics Canada,City Forecast Committee

of 1999, was estimated at 1.8%, up from 0.7% for the same period 1998. The rebound in the inflation rate is largely attributable to the increased demand for resources and labour, stemming from a growing world economy. For example, the average price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased 43% from US$14 per barrel in July 1998 to US$20 in July 1999, as compared with a drop of 28% over the The period of July 1997 to July 1998. unemployment rate averaged 6.0% over the first seven months of 1999, down from 6.2% for the same period in 1998. The increased demand for resources and labour resulted in price and wage increases in different markets. These increases were passed on to the consumers in terms of higher prices. In the residential housing markets, renters and homebuyers exerted upward pressure on rental rates and house prices as they competed for limited supply of accommodation. In addition, as retailers and wholesalers restocked depleted inventories, the inflationary impact of the devalued Canadian dollar

2cmmod

Inflation will The inflationTherate 20% and between 2.0% range between will range inflation rate 2.5% over the forecast

was estimated at 0.9% rate inflation Edmonton's Edmonton's inflation rate was estimated at 0.9% in 1998 dowon from 1.8% in 1997. The sharp drop in the inflation rate was caused by a significant weakness in world commodity prices, which translated into lower prices for consumer goods and services. These price declines were large enough to nullify the inflationary effects of the depreciation in the Canadian dollar. In addition, domestic manufacturers faced stiff competition from cheaper Asian products. for 1999 will average 2.0%. rate inflation The Edmonton's inflation rate, for the first seven months Edmonton's inflation rate, for the first seven months

The inflation rate will average 2.5% in 2000 and 2001, up from 2.0% in 1999. It will be driven by increased demand for resources and labour. With economic growth returning to the world economy, commodity prices will increase as increasing

pices

will irese

as icesn

demand places upward pressure on prices.

For

example, the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price is expected to increase by 19.3% in 1999. This increase will be reflected in higher transportation costs and heating bills. In addition, an expanding regional economy will result in an increased demand for labour, as work proceeds on major construction

projects such as the Scotford oil refinery in

Strathcona County.

The unemployment rate is

expected to dip to 5.8% in 2000 and 2001. Consequently, higher resource prices and wage rates would be passed on to the consumer in terms of higher prices for goods and services.

The inflation rate is expected to ease to 2.0% in 2002 and 2003, from 2.5% in 200 and 2001. The completion of the major construction projects in the region would result in a reduction in the employment growth rate. This will result in lower wage and price inflation. By 2004, the inflation rate

Preparedby. City Forecast Committee, September 1999

* I0

Soeio-Economic Forecas, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

will move slightly higher to 2.5% as the provincial economy grows at a faster rate.

$600 and $700 million. The Region will grow at a slower pace as construction projects are completed. And the growth in the demand for building space will moderate. The building permit values will fall within the range of $525 to $625 million in 2004.

Inflation Rate Edmonton C.M.A.

Building Permits City of Edmonton

0.x

S-00

0.00 1?

ISO

Source: Statistics Canada, City Forecast Committee

Source: Planning & Development,. City Forecast Comnmitteeoo

Construction The building permit values will range between $500- $700 million over theforecastperiod The value of building permits for the City in the first seven months of 1999 totalled $395.8 million same as $396.0 million for the same period 1998. The total value of residential building permits was $190.3 million for this period, up from $166.6 million for the same period 1998. Thus, the total value of non-residential building permits declined to $205.5 million in the first seven months of 1999 from $229.4 million for the same period 1998.

0 *

0 0

In 1999, building activity will be slightly less than in 1998 as the Edmonton Region's economy adjusts to slower growth in its economic environment. The number of net migrants to the Edmonton Region will fall from the 1998 level, as employment growth remains relatively constant. Consequently, the demand for residential and non-residential space will show little or no increase over 1998. Building permits values will remain relatively stable at or slightly less than the 1998 values. The building permit values will range between $550 and $650 million in 1999. As the economy rebounds in 2000, the building permit values should range between

The City's housing starts totalled 3,591 units in 1998, up by 19.1% from 1997 but well below the 1993 level of 4,235 units. Housing starts will decline to 3,300 units in 1999. However, housing starts will increase above the 1999 level in 2000 as work commences on the Scotford refinery and other projects, and the City prepares to welcome visitors and athletes to the 8th World Championship in Athletics and the 2001 World Triathlon Championships. These events will result in an influx of construction workers to the Region. This will create a demand for rental accommodation. The housing starts will total 3,400 units in 2000 and 3,200 units in 2001. With the completion of the games and the construction of the refinery, the demand for rental accommodation will grow at a slower rate. The housing starts will total 2,900 units by 2004. The total housing starts in the Edmonton Region was 5,947 units in 1998, up from 4,962 in 1997. The housing starts will total 5,300 units in 1999 and 2000. Thereafter, it will decrease to 5,000 units in 2001 and 4,800 units by 2004.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

'Â°0007

The downtown office market will be affected by the conversion of current office space to other uses as owners attempt to add value to their properties. It is also expected that space will be released to the market as public and private sector leases expire. This will place upward pressure on the office space

vacancy rate in the short run.

Housing Starts City & C.M.A mIminmmmmmim c,

000

4 000

Office Space Absorption

Z 0

City of Edmonton

Source: CMHC, City Forecast Committee 300

In the non-residential market, construction activity was concentrated in the industrial sector, where the average vacancy rate was 5.4% in 1998, up slightly from 5.3% in 1997.

200

,,100 0 4

.100

200

Real Estate Market

-300

The apartment vacancy rate will average 1.7% in

1999, fall to 1.5% in 2000 and then climb to 2.5% in 2004. The downtown office space vacancy rate will average 13.5% in 1999 and fall to 13% by 2004. Edmonton's apartment vacancy rate averaged 1.9% in October 1998, down from 4.6% in 1997 and 7.6% in 1996. The reduction in the vacancy rate is attributable to increased net migration and the conversion of apartments to condominiums.

Source:Colliers

Maceuley

Nicolls

Th The office space vacancy rates will decline over the forecast period as economic activity and employment opportunities continue to improve, resulting in higher positive net absorption rates. The forecast calls for the downtown vacancy rate to fall to 13.5% by December 1999 and then decline slowly to 11.5%by2004.

and 1.5% in 2000, as Edmonton experiences

Vacancy Rate

improved labour market conditions and positive net migration. With the reduced net migration to the Region and construction of new apartments, the apartment vacancy rate will climb to 2.0% in 2001 and 2.5% from 2002 to 2004.

City of Edmonton

Centennial Building and One Thornton Court were

removed from the office space inventory.

Preparedby.: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

0 0

The apartment vacancy rate will fall to 1.7% in 1999

The vacancy rate in the downtown office market declined to 14.0% in 1998 from 14.8% in 1997. This resulted from a positive change in office space absorbed, the first in six years. In addition, the

MMmElii ,

nApartment

Office Space

X: N o,,

Source:CMHC. City

, Forecast

Committee

Socio-Econotnic Forecast, 19 9- 2004, City of Edmonton ECONOMIC FORECAST RISKS

â&#x20AC;˘

The resolution of issues relating to the Kyoto Agreement on Global Greenhouse Gas Reductions and the Year 2000 computer bug may impact the economic growth. The current evidence is not clear as to the direction and magnitude of these impacts. Therefore, the forecast is unable to provide precise estimates of these risks.

â&#x20AC;˘

The following are some of the other risks to the forecast.

Downside Risks to the Forecast. An economic recession in the United States will result in a sharp reduction in the volume of Canadian exports, since the United States is Canada's major trading partner. If this occurs, the Canadian economy will follow the American economy into recession.

continued political uncertainty over the future of Quebec, and a much lower than forecast Canadian dollar.

Any or a combination of these events will exert downward pressure on the Canadian dollar and thus force the Bank of Canada to increase interest rates. Interest rates higher than those forecast will curtail economic activity and result in a lower growth rate. Alberta's personal saving rate has dropped by almost half since 1985. In addition, a prolonged slump of equity prices on the stock markets will cause individuals to feel poorer. The combination of these events will result in consumers restraining their spending as they attempt to rebuild their savings or reduce their debts. As a result, the forecast will have to be revised downwards if a prolonged slump takes place on equity markets.

The forecast assumes that the worst of the public and private sector restructuring is over. If these organizations continue to restructure, the forecast should be revised downwards. A breakdown in producer discipline or a delayed recovery in the global demand for oil could weaken oil prices once again. In either case, planned investment in the energy sector could be significantly curtailed and provincial government revenues reduced. Under these circumstances, economic activity in Alberta and Edmonton could be much weaker. Although the possibility of higher than expected natural gas prices would be beneficial to gas producers and provincial government revenues (see Upside Risks), it would erode the competitive position of Alberta's natural gas-based chemical producers. This could lead to reduced exports and production in this sector. The Canadian forecast assumes that interest rates will stay relatively stable over the forecast period. This assumption could be changed by the following events:

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

Source: Alberta Treasury

Upside Risks to the Forecast. The completion of the Alliance pipeline and the resulted elimination of the difficulty that Alberta natural gas producers are currently facing in accessing a sufficient supply to meet expected domestic and export needs could result in a larger increase in Alberta natural gas prices. This would lead to increase drilling activity and higher provincial government revenues.

......-.. ........ ......... .... ..... ...

..........

........

...

......... :

:-..

.,:: :....."..: -----..-.:-..-....:.g-.::::-.

" ::: :x : ::::..-

Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City ofEdmonton o Socio-Economic The unexpected increases in provincial revenues may allow the Alberta government more fiscal room to reduce provincial taxes or increase spending, or a combination of both. If this scenario materializes, Alberta economic growth and local employment will be higher than forecast. If the anticipated oil sands and other resource-related projects proceed earlier than expected, economic growth in Alberta and Edmonton over the next five years will be higher than the forecast.

0 0

A much higher than forecast Canadian dollar will allow the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates further than forecast. Lower interest rates will stimulate business investment and consumer spending, resulting in higher economic growth than forecast. Over the medium- to longer term, a concerted effort to meet the greenhouse gas objectives of the Kyoto protocol through a mandated increase in the reliance on natural gas would increase both its demand and price. While clearly inflationary, such a move would require expanded drilling programs and pipeline facilities in the province. Whether such a change would increase overall economic activity in Alberta and Edmonton would depend on the extent to which other industries might be damaged by these and other climate change provisions.

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

* I

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of EdmontonI

0 Table 1

Forecast for Selected Economic Indicators Forecast

Actual

Indicator

1996

Oil Price (US $/Barrel) Alberta Natural Gas Price ($G.J Economic Growth Rate (%)

2201

SWorld

2000 1997 11998 1 1999 USA, Canada and Alberta

2001

2002

2003

2004

1.54

20.60 1.87

14.40 1.95

18.50 2.60

18.50 2.80

18.90 2.85

19.65 2.90

20.25 2.95

20.85 3.05

2.5 2.5 3.0

2.0 2.5 3.5

2.0 3.0 3.5

USA

3.4

3.9

3.5

2.5

Canada

1.2 2.7

3.7 8.0

3.0 1.8

3.0 3.0

2.5 3.0

Alberta

Prine Lending Rate (0/ Exchange ate (US$/Can$) Net Migration (Alberta) (000)

6.1

5.0

6.6

6.7

7.0

6.8

6.5

6.0

0.73 14.1

0.72 36.3

0.67 45.8

0.67 38.0

0.69 320

0.70 30.0

0.71 25.0

0.72 25.0

8.0 6.5

9.0 6.0

8.5 6.0

7.2

6.2

6.5

5.0

4.0

4.2

Edmonton

Net Migration - CdlA(000) - City (000)

- CMA (000)

SPopulation

City (000) Economic Growth Rate (%) SErployment (CMA) Unernloyent Rate (CMA) (%) * Rate - CPI (CMA) (%) SInflation Vacancy Rate (City %) SApartnment (Oct) 0 Dowrtown Office (Dec) -

Housing Starts (Units) City

- Total

Single Family - Mlti-Farily C.M.A - Total - Single Family Multi-Fanily *Permit Value - Low SBuilding - High - (City) ($million) -

-1.0 -1.8

7.7 5.0

10.0 7.5

863

876

891

905

919

933

944

954

965

616

624

633

648

658

669

677

685

693

0.5 454

6.0 476

1.3 482

2.8 489

3.5 499

3.2 506

2.7 512

3.0 518

3.0 525

8.5 2.2

6.9 1.8

6.2 0.9

6.0

5.8

6.0

5.8

2.0

2.5

2.0

2.5

7.6

4.6

1.9

1.7

1.5

2.0

2.5

16.9

14.8

14.0

13.5

125

120

12.0

11.5

1,935

3,015

3,591

3,300

3,400

3,200

2,900

2,800

2,900

1,421

1,945

2,032

1,900

2,000

1,900

2,000

514 3,638 2,944

1,070 4,962 3,685

1,559 5,947 4,080

1400 5,300 3,800

1,400 5,300 3,700

1,300 5,000 3,700

1,000 4,800

900 4,700

900 4,800

3,700

3,800

1,000

694

1,2T7

1,867

407

547

675

1,600

1,300

550

600

550

500

525

650

700

650

600

625

Sources: 1. 1996-98 actual: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Colliers Macaulay Nicolls Inc., Canadian Petroleum Association, and Edmonton Planning and Development Dept. 2. 1999 - 2004 forecasts: City Forecast Committee, Septenber 1999

* 0 *

Notes: 1. World oil prices are for VWest Texas intermediate crude at Chicago in U. S. dollars.

2. Natural gas prices are Alberta average market prices in Canadan dollars 3. Net-migation estimates are for the period May of previous year to April of the next.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

0 0

1,500

1,100

19 19

l Soo-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton Table 2

Population Forecast, 1999 - 2004: City of Edmonton 1999

1996

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Forecast

Actual 0-4

42,045

38,457

39,784

40,926

42,252

43,459

44,949

5-9

43,035

42,313

41,918

41,669

41,363

41,120

40,475

10-14

41,725

42,079

42,932

43,455

43,888

43,890

44,006

15-19

39,635

44,345

43,044

43,057

43,503

43,877

44,068

20-24

47,320

55,629

55,663

54,165

51,656

49,470

47,840

25-29

51,335

52,078

52,998

54,955

57,054

58,349

59,297

30-34

56,290

52,945

52,645

52,848

53,134

53,777

54,121

35-39

57,235

57,690

58,014

57,482

56,916

55,631

54,665

40-44

50,040

56,022

56,733

57,429

57,699

58,349

58,797

4549

40,985

45,392

48,114

50,802

53,114

55,004

56,470

50-54

29,905

36,103

38,439

40,434

41,751

43,263

45,380

55-59

25,370

27,123

28,163

29,473

31,648

33,642

35,652

60-64

23,665

23,9872

24,033

24,355

24,849

25,655

26,488

65-69

22,060

23,814

23,687

23,419

23,169

22,890

22,727

70-74

18,230

19,512

20,133

20,634

20,990

21,362

21,543

75-79

12,645

15,378

15,754

16,076

16,215

16,475

16,803

80-84 85+

8,335

8556

9,025

9,747

10,495

11,104

11,680

6,450

6,976

7,384

7,627

7,841

8,070

8,313

Total

616,305

648,284

658,463

668,553

677,537

685,387

693,274

10,179

10,090

8,984

7,850

7,887

6,000

5,000

4,000

4,200

4,179

4,090

3,984

3,850

3,687

Total Increase

Net-lVigration Natural Increase

6,500

Prepared by. Planning and Development Department, the City of Edmonton. September 1999 Sources: Statistics Canada for 1996 population. Edmonton dvic census for 1999 population. by: City 1999 Forecast Committee, September

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

0 20

0Pr

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton Table 3 Population Forecast, 1999 - 204: Edmonton CMA Age

1996

1999

2000

Actual

2001

2003

2002

2004

Forecast

0-4

59,695

53,035

53,372

53,455

54,27

54,546

55,447

5-9

64,595

63028

6109

61,111

59,808

58,519

56,819

10-14

64,820

65358

66,126

66,665

66,973

66,738

66,352

15-19

60,490

68533

67,877

68,316

68,896

69,214

69,466

20-24

61,240

68,869

69,303

68,205

66,096

64,310

63,080

25-29

64,810

63295

63,808

65,132

67,056

68,804

70,703

76,020

68734

67,660

67,509

67,298

67,228

66,486

35-39

81,210

82,404

82,074

80,472

78,606

75872

73,718

S40.44

7440

81,811

83,538

85,168

85,063

87,003

87,249

4549

61,335

67,970

71,858

75,847

79,333

82,409

84,857

50-54

44,815

55330

58,876

61,790

63,576

65,654

68,924

55-59

35,610

40,115

42,123

44,422

48,292

51,704

54,801

60-64

31,355

32944

33,731

34,755

35,969

37,722

39,510

65-69

27,985

30,902

31,124

31,255

31,355

31,516

31,844

70-74

22635

24604

25,580

26,424

27,145

27,832

28,365

75-79

15,555

19,187

19,742

20,244

20,524

21,008

21,551

80-84

10,135

10,664

11,326

12,267

13,268

14,088

14,863

85+

7,825

8681

9,205

9562

9,876

10238

10589

Total

862,570

905465

919,433

93601

944162

954405

964626

13,968

13,168

11,561

10,243

10,221

9,000

8,500

7,200

6,200

6,500

4,968

4,668

4,361

4,043

3,721

S30-34

Total Increase Net-4igration Natural Increase

8,000

Prepared by: Planning and dovelopient Departnt, the City of Edrk

ton,Septrenter 1999

Soirc. Statistics Canada for 1996 population City Forecast Ccmittee for net-migration estimates. Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

I 11 ... .. . . III I1

...... 111... .

. ....

.. "

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..

..... .

. . ...... . . . .. . ..

...

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City ofEdmonton

PART 2: SOCIAL FORECAST CANADA Additional funding for health care and selected social programs will raise the level of funding and service provision above what it was before 1993. In May 1999, average weekly earnings for all employees across Canada were estimated at $607.39, virtually unchanged from April and about the same level as in May 1998. The annual growth rate of average weekly earnings has been under 1.0% since January 1999 and has also been below the annual growth rate of the Consumer Price Index since January. Employment remained virtually unchanged in May. The median total income of individuals in Canada in 1997 remained virtually unchanged from 1996 at $19,400, after adjusting for inflation. Taxfilers in the Northwest Territories (excluding Nunavut), ... Yukon, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia had higher median total incomes than the national level. The median total income for women was $14,800 or about 57% of that for men ($26,100). This ratio has remained the same since 1994. The lowest femaleto-male ratio in terms of income was in Alberta at 52%, although the median total income was relatively high at $28,900 for men and $15,100 for women.

Saskatchewan and Alberta at 5.0%. In 1997, the number of Canadians reporting income from employment rose 2.4%, due to continued growth in

the number of self-employed, particularly among women. Although there were still fewer women than men reporting self-employment income in 1997, the number of self-employed women has grown 45% since 1992 compared with about 19% growth for men. However, despite this growth in numbers, the growth rate of those reporting self-employment income has been declining since 1994-1995 for women and 1995-1996 for men. In 1997, men earned on average $15,000 from self-employment while women earned an average of $8,000. Among the provinces and territories, Alberta (+5.6%) and Saskatchewan (+2.4%) had the highest percentage increases.

0 0 0

Median Total Income Alberta and Canada

mm umuuuII 30.00 0

UAlberta

2.000

.......

22,0**

' ... >:

...

.......

.....

...

Source: Statistics Canada

For the fourth year in a row, taxfilers relied less on transfer payments as a source of income in 1997. On

The major source of income for both sexes was

average, taxfilers received $18.17 in transfer

of the contribution income; employment employment income to total income was higher for In 1997, men (77%) than for women (66%). government transfers were the second largest component (13.2%) of total income, followed by private pensions (5.5%). Income from private pensions increased since 1996 when it made up only 5.2% of total income. Investment income, which comprises both interest and dividend income, was British the next largest component (4.7%). of investment proportion Columbia had the highest income to total income (5.4%) followed by both

payments for every $100 of employment income in the 1997 tax year, down $1.18 from 1996. Economic dependency measures the amount of transfer payments received for every $100 of employment income. This rate has decreased each year since 1993, primarily due to changes in the Employment Insurance (El) program and increases in employment income. Canadians are depending more on employment income and less on government transfers. Transfer payments are still an important source of income for many, however. Although Social Assistance showed a decrease

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

0 0

0 0 0

of 50,000 recipients from 1996, it was the third largest dollar component of transfer payments (13.7%) in 1997. El payments (13.6% of transfer payments) continued to decline for the fourth year in a row, down 14.5% in 1997. Alberta (-24.5%) and Saskatchewan (-20.1%) led the provinces and territories in percentage decreases.

Economic Dependency Rates Alberta and Canada

The budget announced transfers to provinces of an additional $11.5 billion for health care over the next five years, surpassing where transfers stood prior to the period of expenditure restraint of the mid-1990s. Health services for Aboriginals will be improved by strengthening community and home care in particular. The 1999 federal budget also clarified rules for additions to the Canada Child Tax Benefit (CCTB) announced in the 1998 budget, and committed an additional $850 million targeted exclusively at lowincome families and $300 million to increase CCTB payments for modest- and middle-income families. The Canada Millennium Scholarship project will begin in 2000 and will provide an average of $3,000 per year for 5,000 low and middle income postsecondary students in Edmonton.

lace

lee?

Source: Statistics Canada

While the unemployment rate across Canada

declined 0.7% in the year ending July 1999, the rate increased by 0.3% in Alberta. During the same period, Alberta's employment rate went up 0.5%, to 69.8%. Much of this change is likely due to the influx of students seeking summer employment. An additional 453,000 jobs were created in Canada in 1998, an improvement on the 368,000 new jobs in 1997. This is the greatest increase since 1990. Almost 40% of these new jobs went to youth, which should help considerably in alleviating the longstanding employment problems for this group. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.8%, the lowest since June 1990. During 1998, as much as one-third of the new jobs offered only part-time work. Almost all of the new jobs created across Canada in January of 1999 were full-time positions, although this trend did not hold in Edmonton, where most of the new jobs were part-time. The February 16, 1999 federal budget allocated $795 million for the Youth Employment Strategy and the Canadian Jobs Fund.

A study recently released by Statistics Canada showed that in 1996 households put 41% of their Where are Canadians spending their money?

expenditures towards services, as compared to 36% in 1986. The biggest growth areas were

communication services (cable TV, Internet and cellular phones) and finance and real estate services (increased housing purchase costs and mutual and retirement funds). The average spending on goods was down by 13.9% between 1986 and 1996. Canadians spent 10% less on dining out and a third less on alcoholic beverages in licensed premises, but spent 19% more on amusement and recreation and 15% more attending live performances. The amount spent on games of chance was up substantially, by 56% to $344 per household in 1996.

ALBERTA Following the lead of the federal government, the Alberta government has announced major reinvestment in services for children, health, education and social services for Albertans.

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

The provincial budget promised an additional $935 million for health services in the province over the 23

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton enhanced medical coverage for children in lowincome families, more funding for subsidized child care, increased monthly welfare shelter allowances for some families with children, and money for programs for children at risk. This funding is over and above the new funding announced earlier in 1999.

next three, plus $598.7 million for elementary and secondary school education, a doubling of funding to the Alberta Science and Research Fund for 19992000, and an increased investment in tourism, The promised tax reductions will be introduced gradually, and should be fully implemented by 2002. These promised reductions are tied to attainment of the government revenue forecasts laid out in the budget.

Provincial Family and Community Support Services Funding =mmiummmimil

With recent diversification in the provincial economy, employment in Alberta is much less subject to "boom and bust" cycles. (Chambers, E.J., Alberta's Human Resources and Employment Structure Over the Last Quarter Century: Assessing the Changes, University ofAlberta 1998). The Alberta Health Plan for Children in LowIncome Families, a reinvestment of savings from not passing on the Federal Child Tax Benefit to families on welfare, will provide prescription, dental, optical and ambulance coverage of approximately $19 million across the province in 1999. Coverage will be provided to families with incomes below approximately $20,000 that are not already on a supplemental health plan through their work or government assistance. Additional initiatives for children that have recently been announced by the provincial government include:

Sor

go.

Ab.FaiySoc-S.v

Supports for Independence (welfare) was to be reduced by 10.6% from 1997/98 to 1998/99. This may reflect decreases in caseload due to improved in the province. employment opportunities However, for the 8,000 Edmonton families with children who remain on Supports for Independence, no increases in benefits were announced. An additional $10 million will go to Community Boards for Persons With Developmental Disabilities This brings the funding across the province.

* A Children's Forum to identify priorities for improving the lives of Alberta children into the

increase in this area to 12% over last year.

* A Task Force on Children at Risk, which will conduct an inventory of provincially-provided programs and services, as well as look at what other provinces and countries are doing. The Task Force will present its report at the Alberta Children's Forum in Octoberl999. under * An additional $28.6 million for programs the National Child Benefit program, including

* An additional $5 million to front-line services for children's mental health.

next century. The forum will be held October 56, 1999 in Edmonton, and will include opportunities for participation by the public.

Given the increased provincial Family Employment Tax Credit, federal Child Tax Benefit, provincial Health Plan for Children in Low-Income Families, federal Child Care Expense deduction, and provincial child care subsidy increase for lowincome parents, the working poor with children will gain significantly over the forecast period. Middleincome families will likely not gain, on average, as the federal child care expense deduction will be outweighed by the removal of the operating

Preparedby.: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

Q-:Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City ofEdmonton allowance provided to day care businesses, which had benefited receiving childcare. *

Household Incomes, 1991-1999 Edmonton Im mm m m iii

While some of the major indicators of need, such as the unemployment rate, will perform more positively

S2,o039999 - $5999 .Os 1040000

over the forecast period, Edmonton will continue to

reflect a consistently lower level of socio-economic status and an older population than Calgary. Because the elderly, people on low incomes and Aboriginals make heavier use of the health and social services systems, these services will remain under pressure in Edmonton.

have been Many of the provincial granting agencies amalgamated, but at the same time, the amount of grant funds available has dropped overall. The Edmonton Community Lottery Boards distributed $11.2 million to community groups in 1998.

1991 1999 SOUfCO:CIVkCCensus 1991, 1999; Census of Canada 1996

Source: Cc Census 1991. 1999; Cus of Cada 1996

EDMONTON

Sonly

slowlyfeelingfinancial benefits.

The total number of housing units in SThedmntoas from 236,100 mn 1991 Edmonton has ncbr increasedofro Eoto602 n inc99,ea0.2%inceaseovewith to 260,200 in 1999, a 10.2% increase over the period. While the number of owner-occupied dwellings in Edmonton has also consistently 0 increased during this period (from 123,200 units to 148,000 units, a 20.1% increase); the stock of . rental dwelling units decreased from 113,000 min 0*~ ~ 1991 to 112,100 in 1999. Low income renter households (the number and proportion of which 0 increased between 1991 and 1996) may Sexperience increased difficulty obtaining adequate shelter at reasonable cost as the shortfall in rental accommodation is felt and 0 of homeless The persons rentsnumber increase. reand families The increase. mayts number of homeless

and

families

may

increase

0 0 0

In 1993, 77.3% of Edmonton residents who

Edmonton is becoming a more diverse .. city an increasing percent of persons of visible minority backgrounds. were 46,785 1991,inthere In citizens the population and non-Canadian in 1999, there and in 1999, there population in the citizens were only 31,161, a decrease of 33.3%. This were only 31,161, a decrease of 33.3%. This that immigrants are choosing to commit suggests to Canada and are becoming citizens. to Canada and are becoming citizens. The distribution of household incomes in Edmonton has changed relatively little over the This suggests that the improving 1990s. economy has not yet brought much financial benefit to the majority of households.

some

Edmontonians have increased difficulty meeting rental payments.

Edmontonians are living in the same residence for a longer period. 46% of Edmontonians had lived in their current place of residence for five years or longer in 1999 in contrast to 40.6% of Edmontonians who had lived in their place of residence for five years or more in 1993. This suggests that Edmonton neighbourhoods may be becoming somewhat

had lived in their current dwelling less than one year came from elsewhere in Edmonton in 1999, only 69.6% had lived elsewhere in Edmonton. Edmonton.

Preliminary data recently released from the 1999 Cityof Edmonton census revealed several Cwhile interesting ~intrends: *

1990

more stable now than they were in 1993.

but families are is improving, r felngm fisnancoal btfmle nl local localyeconomy

SThe -~

999 59,00

A study recently released by the Edmonton Social Planning Council (Edmonton Facts No.5, October

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

1998) examined a number of different social factors to assess changes in Edmonton's social health since 1993. The index showed that social conditions in Edmonton have improved in some ways but that overall, the 1997 index had declined by almost 5% from the baseline year of 1993.

In 1997 the use of the Food Bank (30,658 per 100,000) dropped back to 1995 levels, but was still higher than it was in 1993 (19,622 per 100,000).

The number of crisis support calls increased from a low of 691 per 100,000 in 1993 to over 1,000 per 100,000 in 1994, and has remained at approximately the same level since.

The Child Welfare caseloads have climbed

steadily since 1993, from 433 per 100,000 to 654Pper 100,000in 1997. The proportion of babies born with low birthweight has also increased steadily since 1993, from 5.6% of births to 6.5% p in 1997.

What has improved? *

Property crime dropped from 103 per thousand in 1993 to 81 per thousand in 1997. Violent crime went from 1,723 per 100,000 in 1993 to 1,379 per 100,000 in 1997, although .thechange occurred between 1993 and most most of of the change occurred between 1993 and very gradual since beenchange has and 1994 The teen birth rate, measured as the rate per 1,000 females between ages 15 and 19, dropped from 29.7 in 1993 to 25.2" in 1997.

The suicide rate had been dropping since 1993 (20.9 per 100,000), but showed a sharp increase in 1996 (19.1 per 100,000).

The incidence of sexually transmitted disease has fluctuated somewhat since 1993 (when there were 431 cases per 100,000) but is generally declining (402" cases per 100,000 in 1997).mme

The number of premature deaths (i.e., those that occur before age 75) is rising steadily, from 315 per 100,000 population in1993 to 347 pper 315 per 100,000 population in 1993 to 37 per 100,000 in 1997.

0 Edmonton's Social Health Index em 102

Life expectancy for Edmontonians has been steadily improving - from 77.58 years in 1993 to 78.24 P years in 1997. Although not as high

as for Calgarians, Edmontonians have one of the

highest life expectancies in the world. The rate for Edmonton men is fifth highest in the world

" 90

and the rate for women is sixth highest.

Source: Edmonton Social Planning Council

1993? deteriorated since What hassince 1993? What has deteriorated *

Reports of domestic violence declined in the years after 1993 (285 reports per 100,000), but increased sharply in 1997 (to 350 reports per 100,000). Personal bankruptcies are up drasticallyfrom 2.2 per 1,000 population in 1993 to 6.11 per 1,000 in 1997.

Demographic Changes The increase in the 45-64 and over 75 age groups will be the most significant demographic trends duringthe forecastperiod.

The "baby-boomers", currently in their 40s and 50s, are becoming the overriding demographic group of interest over the long term. However, from a social

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City ofEdmonton and economic perspective this age group is not considered as vulnerable as others are. At the same time, this group needs to be considered due to its sheer numbers and the fact that the older component of the group may experience significant stresses over the forecast period. The 45 to 54 age groups, currently comprising 12.6% of Edmonton's population, will increase by 20,355 or 24.9% over the next five years, by which time they will form close to 15% of the population. This increase will likely have implications for that portion of the age group that needs to find new employment and for the specific health services used by this group. Social issues will include coping with the stresses of finding new employment, caring for ageing parents, and helping to meet needs of adult children not in the workforce.

0 0 * *

0 0 -

_ 0 *

The 75+ age group in the population will grow by about 5,890 or 19% during the forecast period. The increase will occur largely in the central area of the city. A high proportion of this age group will be women living alone. The demand for services such as health care, exercise programs, seniors housing, and aids to daily living will increase significantly, Isolation and conflicts with adult children and other caregivers may affect this group. As discussed discussed in the Edmonton Edmonton population As inthe population section section, the 0 -9 age group will increase by more than 4,650 or 5.5% during the forecast period. This is a change from what has been forecast over the last few years. Increasing employment opportunities and incentives to work programs will result in a significant number of mothers entering the workforce, placing upward pressure on child care services. The proportion of mothers in the workforce is already greater than the proportion of working women who are not caring for children. 0 The net migration is forecast to remain positive. Inmigrants will generally be young and the increase will create some additional demand for housing, childcare, and other human services, 0

0 0 0

Employment and Unemployment Further economic prosperity will enhance the wellbeing of many Edmontonians. Positive social impacts will come from decreasing unemployment, low inflation, and low mortgage rates. This environment will result in increased financial independence, improved health status for those Edmontonians obtaining full-time jobs with benefits, and those successful with small business ventures. Therefore, demand for some elements of social services may be reduced. Canada-wide July's employment increase was primarily full time jobs, up 3.4% over July 1998. In contrast, part-time employment was down slightly from its level of a year ago. The situation in Edmonton has been opposite, however. The number of full-time positions in Edmonton in July dropped by 0.5% and the number of part-time positions increased by 14%. In July, overall employment gains were concentrated among women aged 25 and over as a decline in the number of adult women working part time was more than offset by the number of adult women gaining full-time-jobs. July's employment increase among adult women brings the increase over1.8% the last to 3.0%, much stronger than the gain12 formonths adult men over than the 1.8% gain for adult men over period. stroname mucthe

The Family Many families are under considerablestress due to uncertain employment and benefits, reduced savings and increasingfamilydebt. An ongoing study of children and youth across Canada found that the majority of children were growing up healthy and well adjusted, and were progressing well in school. However, a significant proportion lived in difficult family circumstances and faced other disadvantages that put their development at risk. Many of these problems related directly to children growing up in a lowerincome environment. This, in turn, can be linked to family structure, the age of the parents and whether one or both parents are employed. Family

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

breakdown often leaves children living in lowerChildren in single-parent income situations. families, regardless of income, were also more likely to exhibit behavioural and relationship problems.

Canadians' real disposable income has been dropping. The trend is particularly evident when contrasted to the situation in the United States.

The provincial budget promises to reduce taxation inequities between single-income and two-income families, by increasing spousal exemptions. Nationally, estimated family income after tax remained essentially unchanged in 1997 for the third consecutive year, after adjusting for inflation. Apart from a modest increase in 1994, the average had declined throughout the early 1990s. The 1997 average after-tax family income was estimated at $45,605, about 6% less than in 1989, the peak year for income. Transfer payments averaged $6,474, 10% lower than the peak in 1993, while the average income tax was $11,541, down slightly from the high in 1996. Employment grew 1.9% in 1997, increased weekeaingsed worked per hours while average 0hours perweek e t 9A 0.5%toAverage hours. 37.9 weekly earnings in 1997 were essentially unchanged as well. Families experienced only modest improvements in earnings.

Average Family Incomes, 1997

REAL PERSONAL DISPOSABLE INCOW PERCAPITA hdexes:199001

100

u.s. .............

100O5

Canada

90 851

19o1 ,90 197 1o0o,' 193 198 19 U.S. Canada. stics St ource: 199 am: , Mos rt of Comre. TD Economics Departmnent

1990o

1902

At the same time, Canadians' personal savings rate (disposable income minus consumer spending) has turned negative for the first time on record. Because of slow growth in wages over the last several years, many Canadian families have gone increasingly into debt to maintain their lifestyles.

Canada

gmmmmmmul CANADIAN TOTAL HOUSEHOLD DEBT

r0,o 00,0001

Twe.p.reI.ms.:

Eire fauls1

a 0,000 -

es.

ameprem

Per cent of personal disposable incorne

Canadian Total Debt

2*.***Household o0 -

Income 0..Before Transfers _ s_._.__ _ c_ _ _ _

Transfers

80 -

After.Tax In come

70 -

The province has promised additional help for separated or divorced parents by enforcing courtordered maintenance payments and access to children. Between 1991 and 1996 the proportion of singleparent families in the city increased from 16.2% to 17.2%. This trend is likely to continue,

1990

1991

1992

1993

,strcemdat : 19103

1994

1995

1996

197

1998"

Source: Bank of Canada. TD Economics

In summary, there is still considerable potential for stress on Edmonton families, from insecure jobs, reduced disposable income, depleted savings, higher debt load. Often this stress is manifested through disputes, abuse and family breakdown.

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

SSocio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton SANGS ,ANADIA

C 14Percentofper

s o al

dispos

knowledge-based areas. This should provide a direct

RATE

boost to other efforts underway in Edmonton to increase the contribution of knowledge-based industry to the local economy.

eincor

12 *

A new province-wide network of adult learning

8 6

called Campus Alberta was announced.

Cadin CaaianR Sauings Rate

Applied degree programs, which were introduced as demonstration projects in 1994, will become an ongoing part of Alberta's college and technical

2 1996 1991o19oo21993 o1994 Sbst re ent data: 109803

1990

Source: Stalistics Canada. TO

19o

1997

1998

onorrios

* *

Youth Unemployment *

Chronic unemployment problems among young people are beginning to ease. 0 The youth unemployment rate (15-24 age group) has been significantly higher than the overall

unemployment rate in recent years. However, figures released by Statistics Canada show marked improvement in youth employment over the last year. An interesting manifestation is that many youth are volunteering their time, in the hope this will create job opportunities for themselves in the volunteer and not for profit sector. 0

Education

0 The improving economy and increasing job opportunities are fuelling the demandfor training more closely tied to employment opportunities. The

provincial

government

has

announced

expenditure of $598.7 million for K-12 education over the next three years, plus $300,000 for two family literacy projects. Details include plans to improve access to curriculum and educational resources for aboriginal children. A program to audit health and safety aspects of school buildings will also be developed. l The province will be funding additional opportunities for post-secondary training in specific

institutions program.

has invited public colleges and technical institutions to get actively involved in providing these programs. These study programs differ from traditional degree programs in that they include work experience activities, and employers are involved in the design, delivery and funding of the work experience portion of the studies. This initiative should have a direct, positive effect on employment, particularly for youth and young adults, although it will take some time for the effects of the new programs to be felt.

Post-secondary students are borrowing more money than ever to pay for their education and are finding it harder to pay it back, according to a study on Canada Student Loans between 1990/91 and 1995/96. One in 3 students who left school in 1995/96 had repayment difficulties in the first year compared with 1 in 5 students in the 1990/91 group. In the 1990/91 loan year, the average debt for students just starting their repayment program was $6,810. Five years later in 1995/96, the average amount had increased 13.4% to $7,725. Both the rate of default and the average value of loans in default increased during the six-year period. The Volunteer and Not-for-Profit Sector Albertans and Edmontonians continue to volunteer their time to help others. Although the numbers of people volunteering are holding steady, the amount of time they are able to donate has dropped somewhat. Albertans still lead the nation in active volunteer work. Just over 40% of Albertans volunteer their time, compared with the national rate of 31%.

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

0 0 0

The provincial government

Across Canada, about 31% of the total population aged 15 and over volunteered their time, an increase from the rate of 27% estimated in 1987. The average volunteer contributed 149 hours during the year, down from 191 hours in 1987. A small core of the population did the bulk of the donating and volunteering. One-third of all volunteers accounted for 81% of total volunteer hours. One major finding was the extent of volunteering among young people aged 15 to 24. In 1997, an estimated 33% of youth in that age group were volunteers, almost double the proportion of 18% a decade earlier. These young volunteers, however, contributed fewer hours than their counterparts 10 years ago. Nearly two-thirds (65%) of unemployed young volunteers aged 15 to 24 believed that their volunteer effort would increase their chances of fulding a job. The willingness to volunteer appears to increase with levels of income and education, and is greatest in the 30 to 44 year age groups, particularly in households with school children. Volunteers with higher household incomes generally contribute less time than those with lower incomes. Seniors with considerable disposable time are less likely to do volunteer work than younger adults. Those seniors who do, however, are more active in terms of the amount of time they commit to volunteer work. The pending retirement of large numbers of baby boomers could have a positive affect on volunteerism.

Poverty The income gap between rich and poor is widening in Edmonton and across Alberta. Poverty does not hit all segments of our society equally. Twenty-six percent of all Edmontonians had an income below the Low Income Cut-Off (LICO) in 1995. However, for some sub-groups, the figures were more alarming:

• 24.8% of seniors. • 27.9% of women, but only 24% of men. The provincial budget promises tax relief for lowincome families. By 2002, families with two children who earn less than $32,000 will pay no provincial income tax.. The provincial Special Needs Assistance for Seniors Program will get an additional 14% in funding. This program provides emergency cash grants to lowincome seniors who can't meet their basic needs. Homelessness continues as a significant problem across Canada. The Government of Alberta and Edmonton City Council jointly appointed a task force on homelessness for Edmonton. The task force will identify ways the community, private and public sectors can co-ordinate supports for homeless people. The provincial government will be preparing a new housing policy to address requirements of needy Albertans. The Child Tax Benefit increase and the Family Employment Tax Credit, along with a decreasing unemployment rate, will directly help reduce the depth and extent of poverty for working poor families with children who are not on welfare. One quarter of children in the Edmonton Region live in families with incomes below the low-income cutoffs. This rate may decrease somewhat during the forecast period, given the historically close association between the unemployment rate and the poverty rate.

• 61.6% of aboriginals had an income below the LICO. • 49.4% of recent immigrants. • 35.0% of youth (ages 15 to 24). • 34.9% of persons in visible minorities. • 32.1% of children (under 14).

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

Incidence of Children Under 18 a Years in Low Income Families

mmmlul

linformation

â&#x20AC;˘

20-

services for children, improved service in key areas like surgery and diagnostics, funds for new and replacement equipment, a province-wide health system, a review of long-term care with particular reference to the impact of the ageing population, plus a provincial health summit.

_ _ '1

1,,

,..

1.81

Source: Statistics Canada, Su ,veysof Consumer Finances

Over the forecast period, the health care system can expect increased demand from specific populations, such as the 75+ age group and Aboriginal people. These groups, as well as low-income individuals and families, have relatively poor health status and high health care use.

Note: The City of Edmonton makes up 71% of the Edmonton

CMA, the incidence for the City alone would be significantly higher as the CMA contains a number of more affluent communities. Increased employment and lower unemployment rates could also see. the number of food bank users level off (food bank usage more than doubled between 1991 and 1996).

The current short supply of supportive living and group homes for vulnerable populations (e.g., frail elderly, mentally ill, disabled individuals, abused children, and troubled teens) will need to be addressed by local groups and provincial agencies during the forecast period. A study of mortality rates across Canada between 1994 and 1996 has shown that while rates are

relatively high in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, those Users Food Bank

FoCity of Edmonton CmitofEmno niiinWWHilll

in western CMAs were often lower than the national average. Edmontonians also had an overall mortality rate below the national average.

150000

Social Services

*12000 100000

Provincialspending has been increased However, municipal social services are no longer as widely and will increasingly be targeted to those most in need

;,00 a00 Z

Sour.

200available

012

103

Edmonton loeanrs Association

Health Services The reinvestment of additionalfunds in health care offers some promise that concerns in this area may be reduced The March 11, 1999 provincial budget promised an additional $935 million over three years for health services, an increase of 21%. This includes an increase of $386 million, or 8.7 per cent, in 19992000. Details include a review of mental health

Funding for the provincial Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped program will be increased to $270 million in 1999-2000, and Child and Family Services Regional authority budgets will be increased to $381 million for the same period. Funding will also be increased to deal with child prostitution, fetal alcohol syndrome problems, and prevention of family violence and to increase shelter benefits for families on welfare. The Provincial Government recently announced a funding commitment of up to $500,000 for out-ofschool care in Edmonton. This additional funding, when combined with contributions from the City of

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton 6 Socio-Economic Edmonton, should resolve the shortfall that arose this fall

major

declined 21.7% since 1991. However, this rate is still almost double that of 30 years ago.

funding

The Alberta government has promised increased emphasis on early intervention programs for children, new efforts to arrange adoption for children under provincial care, and a forum on children's issues to be held in the fall of 1999. Programs for

°"°

persons with disabilities will also be redesigned to

.....

Crime Rates, 1998 EElIII mMmmmm O3Canada

Alberta-

enable them to participate more fully in society. The Alberta government has also committed to improve and clarify intergovernmental relationships on social policy and to begin work on an aboriginal policy.

N Edmonton CMA MCalgary CMA

6,000

.... ; 2....

All Crime

are Although child welfare caseloads in the city increasing, they are not rising as fast as for the province as a whole (Alberta Child Protection).

Edmonon

100

....

PropertyCrime

Youth crime continues to be more property-oriented than crimes committed by adults. Violent crimes accounted for 20% of youth crime compared with 29% of all crimes committed by adults.Over the past decade, the violent crime rate of female youths has increased twice as fast as for male youths. The rate of female youths charged with violent crime is still much lower (474 per 100,000 population) than

that for male youths (1,310).

IAlberta

In general, although the number of reported family disputes is up for Edmonton (3,411 reported cases in 1996, 5,357 in 1997), the numbers of reported child abuse cases are actually down from previous years

NE 2000 °4

ViolentC.ime

aCr

Average Monthly Child Welfare Caseloads mimu mhf

5.. °$

0°

or7

i(695

Social ervilces Source:Albrta Familyand Source:Alberta Social Seces

Family

cases reported in 1996, 543 in 1997). ° and

More protection is now available to victims of

family violence under the provincial Protection

Crime and Violence The demographic and economic trends will create ctivty.The to slow the current rate of conditions thatcrimnal are likely criminal activity. The crime rate across Canada fell for the seventh consecutive year in 1998. The 4.1% drop resulted in the lowest rate in almost 20 years. Most crimes declined in1998. Among the few crimes showing an increase were drug offences (+6.0%) and prostitution (+1.7%). The national crime rate has

Against Family Violence Act, which took effect June 1, 1999. This includes improved bail notification and protection to victims of serious domestic violence. from the the Throne Throne Speech from The February February 1999 Speech promised that provincial authorities will be working with municipal police and the RCMP to address with municipal police and the RCMP to address crime problems. .organized organized crime problems. The citizen surveys conducted by the Edmonton Police Service in 1994, 1996 and 1998 indicate stabilization in the perceived levels of neighbourhood crime. This is accompanied by a

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

!i~............. ..

i : ::: : :i: : i i i~i 4 : ::ii ii iiii i i~i .:~ ! : ii :~ i~ii! : ii:

steady increase in the perceived safety walking alone at night and an increased use of discretion when personal safety. 0assessing

family. The impact of an ageing population will also need to be considered in family violence initiatives.

The proportion ~Percentof the population in the 15-24 age group is projected to decrease by 8% by the end of the forecast period. Since this age group is more crime prone than other age groupings, crime rates, may decrease accordingly.

! ? ? =... .. : !! ... . ....::: : : ::: :: :!!!!!!!!::!...... :: :! !i: ::: :: ?i........................................

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

Percent Feeling Safe Walking Alone in the Neighbourhood at Night goull 60

Seniors, the fastest growing age group, are generally more fearful of crime than are others in the general population. Efforts directed at reducing the fear of crime will need to consider this demographic trend.

* 20 0

Source:Edmonton Police Services

Criminal Offences SProperty

IRecreation

and Leisure While people are not able to recreateas much as in

previous years, the need for health-giving and

S30

f ulfilling

leisure activities is becoming ever more important. Leisure activities and opportunities to enjoy natureplay an importantpreventative role in

0,: ..

Source:.

Edon

light of the increasedpressures on the health and socialsupport systems.

Percent of People Avoid Going Out Because of the Fear of Crime mmil miUigl ! of the TMe 13,-18one *80-.. most"of t .

0so 60

-4 o$11 20

0 1

A recent survey of 87,000 Canadians found that nearly 20 million people, or about 85% of the population aged 15 and over, participated in one or 1996. more nature-related activities during Albertans had the highest participation rate, at 89%. The economic benefit of nature-related activities was immense. Across Canada, people spent an estimated billion on nature-related activities, an average of $550 per participant. These expenses represented about 2% of total household spending in 1996.

0 93

Source:EdmontonPolice Services

to health and social issues especially in

,relation 9,,

Piccs

Because of an aging population, more elderly people will be cared for by, or will be living with their adult children. Stresses caused by intensive care giving, without respite, may increase violence within the

The proportion of their total expenditures that Canadians directed to recreation increased by just over 1% (to 5.4% of the average household budget) between 1969 and 1996. Recreation services such as movies, cable TV subscriptions and admissions to live performances have accounted for most of this These comprised almost double the increase.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

............ .. . ... "" ....

. . . l l l l f ..

........

.'. .....

. ....

.. ....

. ...

......

....

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

proportion of household expenses that they did in 1969. People have become busier, and the cost of participation has become more important. Low-cost health-promoting activities that people can do spontaneously have remained popular. More expensive activities, or activities that have to be planned in advance or require greater time commitments have dropped in popularity. Ageing of the population is probably also a factor influencing people's choice of activities,

extent, special event equipment. Many events are looking for long term commitments from their sponsors and suppliers to try and ensure their own success over this period of time. As the growth in the number and scope of events continues, the demands on parkland are increasing. Not only are more parks being utilized to host events, but also some parks are reaching their capacity both from an environmental and a social perspective. The desire for passive use of parkland must be balanced against the desire to produce events in these parks.

Walking for pleasure Bicycling Attending sports events, etc. Crafts, etc.

Households Participating (%) 89.2 61.7 55.7 55.6

Tourism expenditures in Canada are up 5.4% from the same quarter in 1998. However, this is not as high as in recent years. Spending by non-residents increased 12.8%, but spending by Canadian visitors in Canada increased by only 3.5%. Currency differentials are driving most of this increased foreign visitation.

Visiting a museum, etc. Swimming in pools Gardening Playing video games, etc. Overnight camping Picnicking in City

53.6 53.3 50.9 47.5 43.6 43.4

As we move through 1999, excitement about the millennium is increasing. The City of Edmonton has established a millennium Celebrations Office to help community groups plan and carry out their millennium projects. The Federal government has established the Millennium Partnership Program to help Canadians mark the new millennium in meaningful and creative ways.

Leisure Activities

Source: Alberta Recreation Survey

Festivals and Major Events

Gaming and Video Lottery Terminals

Edmonton is increasing its profile as a venue for major cultural,sporting, and music events

Concerns about the impacts of gambling on individuals, families, and the community as a

The City of Edmonton will be the host to several

whole have grown significantly over the last few years. The provincial government has announced

major sporting events over the next three years. The City just hosted the Canadian Men's Curling Championships (the Brier), the World Tae Kwon Do Championships and the Canadian Triathlon Championships. In 2000, we will host a major international Triathlon and the World Youth "AAA" Baseball Championships. In 2001 Edmonton will host the 8t World Championships in Athletics and the World Triathlon Championships. These events bring tremendous benefits to Edmonton. They also are increasing an already competitive market for corporate sponsorships, volunteers and to a lesser

its intention to take action on these concerns. The February 1999 Alberta Speech from the Throne promised increased resources for treatment and prevention of gambling problems, and announced that a gaming research institute will be established.

About $1.37 billion was played in legal gaming in Edmonton in 1997/98, including lotteries, charitable casinos, bingo, raffles, horse racing, pull tickets, and video lottery terminals.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

0 0 0

g2 Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

Total Gaming in Alberta

mmu.

mIIII

3500 3000 2500 2000 i1500 1000

500

, 00

g0o

Source: Alberta Gaming and Liquor Commission

0 SOCIAL FORECAST RISKS m

While the "baby boomer" population will show the greatest demographic change, the forecast does not view this age group as a vulnerable

population over the next five years. However, there may be unforeseen needs or issues that will be significant. S The economic elements identified in the social forecast are subject to the risks identified for the economic forecast.

0 P

0 0 0 0

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

Soco-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004,

City ofEdmonton

This list of projects for Northern Alberta contains projects valued at $2 million or greater, That are just completed, under construction, or are proposed to start within two years

($Million)

Company Public Works & Government Services Canada Fletcher's Fine Foods Ltd. TransAlta Enterprises AgPro Grain AgPro Grain Winter Gardens Agricore Agricore Pioneer Grain Company Alberta Wheat Pool United Grain Growers Ltd. United Grain Growers Ltd. United Grain Growers Ltd. Baconsfield Farms Ltd.

Cost 3.0 12.0 80.0 17.0 15.0 7.2 10.0 10.0 8.0 13.0 9.0 9.0 10.0 130.0

Location

Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada Crop Services Builging Bacon Processing Plant Edmonton Composter Strathcona County Full Service Facility Killam Full Service Facility Lavoy Gasifier and Greenhouse Strathcona County Grain Handling Facility Falher Vermilion River No. 24, County of Grain Handling Facility Gramin Handling Facility Lamont No. 30, County of Grain Terminal Lamont No. 30, County of Grain Terminal Rycroft Grain Terminal of 22, County Camrose No. Vermilion River No. 24, County of High Throughput Grain Handling Facility Hog Breeding Farm and Processing Alberta Wide Facility Smoky River No. 130, Municipal Hog Production Facility District of Beaverlodge

Smoky Pork Ltd.

8.7

North American Bison

4.0

Bonnyville No. 87, Municipal

18.0 2.5

District of Red Deer Strathcona County

12.5 140.0 10.0 130.0 23.5

Forestburg Killam Westlock Thorhild No. 7, County of Vermilion

Fletcher's Fine Foods Ltd. Strathcona Exhibition Corporation Compak Forestburg Inc. Fieldboard International Ltd. Compak Canada Ltd. Harvest Board International Inc. North Star Enterprises/Compak Technology Canada Sub Total

Description

Processing Plant Processing Plant Expansion Strathcona Olympiette Centre Modifications Strawboard Mill Strawboard Mill Strawboard Plant Strawboard Plant Strawboard Plant

682.4

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City ofEdmonton

Company

Cost

Location

Description

& Petrochemicals Chemicals 6 Shell Chemicals Canada NOVA Chemicals/Union Carbide Enerchem International Inc. Amoco Canada Chemical Co. Celanese Canada Van Waters & Rogers Ltd. Union Carbide NOVA Chemicals Dow Chemical Sub Total

375.0 1,100.0

Strathcona County Lacombe County

Ethylene Glycol Plant Ethylene Plant (E3)

2.1 400.0 50.0 5.0 316.0 395.0 5.5

Leduc County Lacombe County Edmonton Edmonton Lacombe County Lacombe County Strathcona County

Facility Expansion Linear Alpha Olefins Plant New Acetic Acid Plant Plant Expansion Polyethylene Plant Polyethylene Plant (PE2) Railway Tank Car Cleaning Facility

Edmonton

2,648.6

Commercial/Retail ICC Construction Concepts Cambridge Shopping Centres Ltd./Canadian Tire Millwoods Honda

3.6 3.5

Strathcona County Edmonton

4.0

Edmonton

South Edmonton Common Retail Complex Business Park (Three Phases) Canadian Tire Store Mill Woods Town Centre Car Dealership

Canadian Tire

3.1

Edmonton

Conversion Food For Less to Canadian

South Town Chrysler Border Credit Union Derrick Dodge First Red Deer Place Westfair Foods Westfair Properties Westfair Properties Edmonton Downtown Business Association Westfair Properties Ltd. Eastalta Co-op Scona Market

5.0 2.0 3.3 2.0 4.0 2.5 5.0 3.0

Edmonton Lloydminster Edmonton Red Deer St. Paul Whitecourt Leduc Edmonton

Tire Dealership Relocation Department Store Renovation Expansion Expansion Extra Foods Store Extra Foods Store Extra Foods Store Facelift on 104 Street

2.5 2.0 3.2

Cold Lake Vermilion Edmonton

Revy Home & Garden Centres Canadian Tire Brentwood Developments Ltd.

7.0 3.7 7.8

Edmonton Edmonton Strathcona County

Springwood Developments CIBC Remington Development Corp. Great West Chrysler Jeep Edmonton Kenworth Ltd. Home Depot Canada

35.0 8.5 3.8 5.0 3.8 12.0

Lloydminster Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton

Camrose Development Ltd.

250.0

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

0 0

Food Store and Gas Bar Food Store Expansion Grocery Store & Additional Retail Space in Shopping Hardware Store (Capilano/Yellowhead) Kingsway Avenue Store Lakeland Ridge Shopping Centre, phases 2&3 Lloydminster Power Centre Main Branch Renovations Multi-Tenant General Industrial Building New Dealership Building New Offices and Sales Building New Store

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City ofEdmonton :..... Company

Description

Location

Cost

Commercial/Retail New Store New Store, Capilano Mall Ninth Street Market Complex Outlets Parkade Renovations Eaton Centre/Edmonton Centre Pinnacle Business Park Real Canadian Superstore Redevelopment Renovations Capilano Mall Renovations Eaton Centre Renovations Edmonton Centre TD Tower

Leon's Furniture Ltd. Canada Safeway Save-On Foods Burger King Restaurants Oxford Properties Group

7.0 6.0 2.0 15.0 10.0

Red Deer Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton

GWL Realty Advisers Inc. Westfair Foods Crestwood Mall Renoir Management Corp. Cadillac Fairview Corporation Oxford/Cambridge/TD Bank

40.0 6.7 2.5 3.0 7.0 13.5

Edmonton St. Albert Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton

3.0 20.0

Edmonton Edmonton

12.0

Edmonton

Renovations Manulife Place Renovations to Edmonton Centre and Eaton Centre Renovations to the Empire Building

2.4

Red Deer

Rockin' Robin's Diner

115.0

Edmonton

Shopping Centre/Motel Namao Centre

3.3 4.0 20.0 10.0 2.0

Bonnyville Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton St. Albert

Store and Gas Bar Store Expansion, Kingsway Garden Mall Strathcona Home Depot TELUS Plaza Renovation Upgrades to Mission Hill Plaza

Grande Prairie No. 1, County of Athabasca No. 12, County of Grande Prairie No. 1, County of Slave Lake

Light Weight Coated Paper Mill Manufacturing Plant Mill Expansion Mill Modernization

Financial Group

Manulife Financial Oxford Properties Group Inc. and partners PM Bull & Company Alberta Ltd. Humpty's Restaurants International Inc.

Delcon Development Group Ltd. Westfair Foods Sears Canada Home Depot Canada TELUS TGS Properties Ltd. Sub Total

Forestry &Related: Grande Alberta Paper Ltd. Abcor Forest Industries Inc. Canfor Weyerhaeuser Canada

689.7

... 900.0 20.0 20.0 110.0

Millar Western Industries/Taiga

6.0

Edmonton

New Wood Treatment Plant

Forest Products Footner Forest Products Ltd. Abcor Forest Industries Inc.

150.0 15.0

OSB Plant Sawmill

Abcor Forest Industries Inc.

15.0

High Level Opportunity No. 17, Municipal District of Regional Municipality of Wood

Sawmill

Buffalo

Sub Total

1,236.0

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

0 0 0

Socio-Economic

- 2004,

1999

City of

Edmonton

Description

Location

Cost

Company

Forecast,

Infrastructure

Inglewood Business Association

2.7

Edmonton

111 Ave Improvements

City of Leduc.

2.5

Leduc

1999 Capital Road Program

City of Edmonton

170.0

Edmonton

Yellowhead County/Alberta SCompaTransportation & UtilitiesL

2.0

Yellowhead County

Anthony Henday Dr Extension to Calgary Trail Bridge Repair/Replacement

2.6

Peace River

Bridge Upgrading

City of Edmonton City of Edmonton

16.0 2.1

Edmonton Edmonton

Commonwealth Stadium Renovations Edmonton Public Library Branch,

City of Edmonton

4.2

Edmonton

Riverbend Square Elimination of "The Rat Hole"

Strathcona County

2.3

Strathcona County

Facility Maintenance/ Renovations/Modifications

IAlberta Transportation &

Utilities S

City of Edmonton

2.3

Edmonton

Fire Hall, Terwilligar

Alberta Transportation & Utilities Alberta Transportation &

4.2

Beaver No. 9, County of

Highway 14 Pavement Overlay

2.4

Strathcona County

Highway 15 Four Lane Grade, Base and

Utilities 2.8

Lamont No. 30, County of

Highway 15 Pavement Overlay

Alberta Transportation &

2.2

Parkland County

Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities

3.3

3.6

2.5

Vermilion River No. 24, County of Highway 16 Pavement Overlay Sa P Highway 16 Selective Overlay Yellowhead County

8.9

Grande Prairie No. 1, County of

Highway 2 Grade, Base and Stage Pave

2.1

Sturgeon County

Highway 2 Pavement Overlay

4.8

Highway 2 Widen/Reconstruct

2.2

2.1

Smoky River No. 130, Municipal District of Bonnyville No. 87, Municipal District of Lac Ste. Anne County

4.6

Barrhead No. 11, County of

Highway 33 Reconstruction & Overlay

3.7

Yellowhead County

Highway 40 Base and Paving

2.1

Greenview No. 16,, Municipal District of

Highway 40 Widen/Reconstruct Climbing Lane

Stage Pave

Alberta Transportation &

Utilities

* * *

* * * *

* 0 * * 0

0 0tlte 0let

rnprain&37

Highway 16 Pavement Overlay R _ o _ __n aUtilities__ Vermilion River No. 24, County of Highway 16 Pavement Overlay

Yloha

onyHgwy4

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

Highway 28 Pavement Overlay Highway 33 Pavement Overlay

aeadPvn 39

Socio-Economie

Company

Forecast, 1999

Cost

2004, City of Edmonton

Location

Description

Infrastructure

3.0

Two Hills No. 21, County of

Highway 41 Pavement Overlay

2.7

Grande Prairie No. 1, County of

Highway 43 Pavement Overlay

3.1

Parkland County

Highway 60 Grading, Base and Paving

6.1

Highway 63 Four Lane Grading

1,000.0

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Alberta Wide

3.0

Grande Prairie

Canadian National Railways Edmonton Regional Airport Authority Various Irrigation Districts City of Edmonton City of Edmonton Sturgeon County City of St. Albert City of Edmonton Alberta Transportation & Utilities Canadian National Railways City of Grande Prairie City of Edmonton Strathcona County County of Red Deer

18.0 350.0

Edmonton Leduc County

600.0 15.0 5.9 3.1 4.3 4.4 5.0

Alberta Wide Edmonton Edmonton Morinville St. Albert Edmonton Peace River

Improvements to Waste WaterTreatment Plant System Intermodal Terminal International Airport Terminal Modifications Irrigation Systems/Rehabilitation Louise McKinney Park Media Centre New Administration Building New Public Works Building Outdoor Shooting Range Painting of Peace River Bridge

100.0 4.1 85.0 3.4 3.9

Alberta Wide Grande Prairie Edmonton Strathcona County Red Deer No. 23, County of

Strathcona County City of Edmonton Alberta Transportation &

3.1 145.0 4.0

Strathcona County Edmonton Parkland County

Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities City of Grande Prairie

Highway Twinning Project

Railway Upgrade Resource Road Expansion Roadwork Projects for 99 Rural Road Upgrades Secondary Highway Overlay and Grading Secondary Highway Work Sewer System Upgrade SH 627 Base and Paving

Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities Alberta Transportation Utilities

2.2

2.3

5.5

3.0

Saddle Hills No. 20, Municipal District of Grande Prairie No. 1, County of

SH 681 Final Paving

East Peace No. 131, Municipal District of Sturgeon County

SH 744 Overlay/Sideslope Improvement

Opportunity No. 17, Municipal District of

SH 813 Grading

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

SH 724 Pavement Overlay

SH 794 Widen/Reconstruct

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City ofEdmonton-:

Company

Cost

Location

Description

Infrastructure

0 * 0 * 0 0

Alberta Transportation &

Utilities

2.1

Opportunity No. 17, Municipal

SH 813 Pavement Overlay

District of

Alberta Transportation & Utilities Alberta Transportation & Utilities Alberta Transportation & Utilities Canadian Pacific Railway City of Edmonton Stony Plain/Spruce

3.1

Lakeland County

SH 858 Base Course and Asphaltic Conc.

2.5

St. Paul No. 19, County of

SH 866 Base Course and Asphaltic Conc.

2.3

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Lacombe County Edmonton Parkland County

SH 881 Base Course and Asphaltic Conc.

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Grande Prairie Strathcona County High Prairie Strathcona County

Twinning Highway 63 Fort McMurray to Suncor Two Fire Halls Water Reservoir Water Treatment Plant Water/Sewer Service Extension

Addition Addition/Modernization Addition/Modernization Addition/Modernization Addition/Portables Alterations to Intensive Care Burn

10.0 2.7 21.0

Spur Line to Union Carbide Plant, Joffre Stanley Milner Library Addition Tri-Municipal Leisure Facility

Grove/Parkland County

Alberta Transportation & Utilities City of Grande Prairie Strathcona County Town of High Prairie Strathcona County

Sub Total

25.1 4.5 7.0 3.1 2.3

2,731.3

Institutional

Alberta Education* Alberta Education* Alberta Education* Alberta Education* Alberta Education* University of Alberta Hospital

2.5 3.3 2.7 5.5 2.0 7.6

Lloydminster Stony Plain Stony Plain Edmonton Barrhead Edmonton

Defence Construction Canada St Michael's Health Care Group Mistahia Regional Health Authority Defence Construction Canada

10.0 6.5 3.0

Alberta Wide Camrose Beaverlodge

Army Cadet Training Centre Assisted Living Complex Beaverlodge Hospital Renovations

80.0

Camp Wainwright Upgrade

Alberta Public Works, Supply &

5.0

Wainwright No. 61, Municipal District of Spirit River

Mistahia Health Region Christian Fellowship City of Grande Prairie

4.4 2.0 53.0

Spirit River Grande Prairie Grande Prairie

Peace Regional Health

27.0

Peace River

Treatment Unit

Services

Central Peace Community Health Centre Renovations

Central Peace Hospital Renovations Church Combined Educational/Recreation Complex

Community Health Centre

Authority

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

SSocio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City ofEdmonton

Company S....Institutional..

Location

Cost

Description ....

University of Alberta

15.0

Edmonton

Alberta Education* Alberta Education* University of Alberta

2.0 4.6 20.0

Lloydminster Sylvan Lake Edmonton

Miyo Wahkohtowin Community Education Authority Defense Construction Canada Lakeland Regional Health Authority Capital Care Group Alberta Education* Alberta Education* Alberta Education* Alberta Education* Alberta Education* Alberta Education* Alberta Education* Alberta Education* Alberta Education* Alberta Education* Alberta Education*

10.0

Hobbema

Electrical and Computer Engineering Research Facility Elementary School Elementary School Engineering Teaching and Learning Centre Ermineskin Jr/Sr High School

13.6 8.9

Cold Lake Lamont

Fitness, Sports and Recreation Complex Lamont Health Care Centre

4.0 2.4 2.8 2.0 2.1 4.2 2.2 3.0 2.6 2.8 9.5 2.8

Edmonton Edmonton Innisfail Lacombe Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton Red Deer Edmonton Beaverlodge

University of Alberta

11.0

Edmonton

Alberta Education* Bethany Group

7.5 32.0

Grande Prairie Camrose

Alberta Education* Beth Israel Synagogue

6.8 3.0

High Level Edmonton

University of Alberta Hospital

7.1 3.5 22.4 2.5

Edmonton

11.0 10.0

Edmonton Edmonton

Laurier House phase 2 Modernization Modernization Modernization Modernization Modernization Modernization Modernization Modernization Modernization/Addition Modernization/Addition Modernization/Addition/ Portables New Computer Science Building/ Renovations to Atha New Jr High School New Long-Term Care Facility/Rebuilding of Hawthorn New School New Synagogue Parkade, Health Services Building Performing Arts Centre Recreation Complex Renovations to Edson District Healthcare Centre Renovations to Emergency Department Renovations/Addition

3.1

Grande Prairie

Replacement Facility

10.0 2.4

Edmonton Beaverlodge

Riverbend Retirement Residence School Expansion

Town of Lloydminster City of Red Deer WestView Regional Health Authority Walter C MacKenzie Centre St Joseph's Roman Catholic Basilica Grande Prairie Catholic School District Central Park Lodges Peace Wapiti School Division

Lloydminster Red Deer Edson

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

0 S

Institutional Alberta Education* Grande Prairie Catholic School

District

*Authority

Location

Cost

SCompany

Description

10.6 10.6

Grande Prairie Grande Prairie

Senior High School St Joseph Catholic High School (new)

University of Alberta

16.0

Edmonton

University of Alberta Defence Construction Canada Capital Health Authority

12.7 20.0 14.5

Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton

Telus Centre Institute for Professional Developmen Track and Field Facility Two Armouries U of A Children's Health Centre Renovations

Alberta Public Works Supply

2.3

Lacombe

Upgrade and Expansion Senior Citizens

and Services WestView Regional Health

17.0

Stony Plain

Lodge WestView Health Centre - Stony Plain

4.0

Edmonton

Biopharmaceutical Plant

2.1 12.0 27.0 35.0

Leduc County Alberta Wide Leduc County Edmonton

15.0

Innisfail

Building Addition Composite Pipe Plant Continuous Glass Thread Plant Drug Research, Manufacturing & Packing Plant Expansion of Insulation Manufacturing

2.5 97.6

Leduc County

New Manufacturing Facility

250.0 7.5

Yellowhead County East Peace No. 131, Municipal

Cheviot Open-Pit Coal Mine Diamond Exploration

ASub

Total

565.0

Manufacturing

IntelliGene Expressions Inc. Phoenix Piston Hydraulics Proflex Pipe Corp. Fiberex Glass Corp. Miza Pharmaceuticals Inc. Johns Mansville Canada *Plant Millennium Panel Systems Inc. Sub Total

Mining

Cardinal River Coals Ltd. Ashton Mining of Canada

SSub

Total

257.5

District of

& Ojsands Gash

0Oil

Syncrude Canada Ltd.

1,700.0

Mobil Oil Canada Ltd. Shell Canada Ltd. Gulf Canada Resources Ltd. * Pan Canadian Resources

1,500.0 1,900.0 19.0 137.0

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Alberta Wide Strathcona County Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Alberta Wide

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

Aurora MinefUpgrader Debottleneck II Bitumen Upgrader Bitumen Upgrader Bitumen Upgrading Test Project Capital Spending 1999 43

0 EZ

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999

Company

Enbridge Pipelines (Athabasca)

Description

Location

Cost

fl Gas & 0 sands. Syncrude Canada Ltd.

2004, City of Edmonton

1,00.0 30.0

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Regional Municipality of Wood

...... Continuous Improvement Crude Oil Tanks (4)

Buffalo

Inc.

Canadian Occidental Petroleum

66.0

Talisman Energy Inc. Amoco Canada Petroleum Company Ltd. Imperial Oil Resources

17.2 550.0

TransCanada Midstream/Suncor Energy Mobil Oil Canada Ltd.

220.0

Alberta Energy Company

300.0

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. Ranger Oil Ltd.

800.0

Imperial Oil Resources

50.0

520.0

100.0

225.0

Mackenzie No. 23, Municipal District of Edson Bonnyville No. 87, Municipal District of Bonnyville No. 87, Municipal District of Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Bonnyville No. 87, Municipal District of Opportunity No. 17, Municipal District of Bonnyville No. 87, Municipal District of Bonnyville No. 87, Municipal District of Bonnyville No. 87, Municipal

Development of Hay River Oilfield and Pipeline Con Gas Plant Expansion Heavy Oil Development Expansion Heavy Oil Plant Expansion Hydrocarbon Liquids Conservation Project In Situ Bitumen Plant In Situ Bitumen Production In Situ Bitumen Production In Situ Bitumen Production Expansion In Situ Development Production

District of

Amoco Canada Petroleum Company Ltd. Berkley Petroleum

100.0 2.5

Increased In Situ Bitumen Production Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Brazeau No. 77, Municipal District Natural Gas Plant

ATCO Midstream

30.0

Leduc County

Natural Gas Processing Plant Expansion

(Golden Spi

Syncrude Canada Ltd.

500.0

Regional Municipality of Wood

North Mine/Upgrader Debottleneck I

Buffalo

Regional Municipality of Wood

Oilsands Mine & Extraction Plant

Mobil Oil Canada Ltd.

1,000.0

Koch Exploration/UTS Energy

1,000.0

Regional Municipality of Wood

Ollsands Mining and Extraction Plant

Shell Canada Ltd.

1,400.0

Buffalo Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo

Oilsands Mining/Extraction Plant

Suncor Energy Inc.

2,200.0

Buffalo

Pan Canadian Resources

75.0

Japan Canada Oilsands Co. Ltd.

45.0

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo

1999 September City Forecast Committee,by:

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

Oilsands Plant Expansion (twinning current facilit Phase 1: SAGD Bitumen Production Phase 2: SAGD Bitumen Pilot Plant

0 0Pr 0

0 0 0

::: I 11 ............ ......... ... ....................... ... ............ ...... ... ....... .... ... ... .... ... ...... ... . ... .. ... ss.:

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999

2004, City of Edmonton

0 Company

Oil, Gas & Oilsands

Cost

Location

Description

Phase 3: SAGD Bitumen Production

Centurion Gas Liquids Inc.

170.0

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Strathcona County Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Bonnyville No. 87, Municipal District of Brazeau No. 77, Municipal District of Alberta Wide

Husky Oil Ltd.

500.0

Vermilion River No. 24, County of Upgrader Expansion

Japan Canada Oilsands Co. Ltd.

129.0

Pan Canadian Resources 0 Suncor Energy Inc.

300.0 190.0

Shell Canada Ltd. Gulf Canada Resources Ltd.

300.0 250.0

Gulf Canada Resources Ltd. ----Petro Canada Oil and Gas

750.0

Alberta Energy Company

240.0

Northrock Resources Ltd.

10.0

Syncrude Canada Ltd.

Sub Total

175.0

3,000.0

Phases 2/3: SAGD Bitumen Production Project Millennium Preliminary Refinery Modifications SAGD Bitumen Commercial Project phase 1 SAGD Bitumen Commercial Project phase 2 SAGD Bitumen Production SAGD Pilot Plant Expansion Sour Gas Processing Plant Straddle Plant and Pipeline

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo

Upgrader Expansion

Rocky Mountain House Edmonton Strathcona County Edmonton Edmonton

Cement Plant Facility Expansion Industrial Gases Complex Materials Recycling Facility Recycling Facility

Bitumen and Dilvent Pipelines "ThickSilver Pipelin Bitumen Pipeline "Corridor Pipeline"

21,500.7

1Other Industrial Big Horn Cement Inc. AltaSteel Air Liquide Canada Inc. City of Edmonton Fixcor Recovery Systems Sub Total

100.0 14.0 150.0 12.0 7.5 283.5

Pipelines

Imperial Oil/Amoco Canada/Koch Oil Co. ShelI/BHP/BC Gas/Trans Mountain Pipeline AEC Pipelines Ltd.

250.0

Alberta Wide

500.0

Alberta Wide

220.0

Alberta Wide

Wild Rose Pipeline Inc. Alliance Pipeline Ltd. Partnership Nova Pipeline Ventures Limited

475.0 2,400.0

Alberta Wide Alberta Wide

Capacity Expansion "Alberta Oil Sands Pipeline" Heavy Oil "Athabasca" Pipeline Natural Gas Pipeline

50.0

Alberta Wide

Natural Gas Pipeline

Prepared by0City Forecast Committee, September 1999

0 0

Socio-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton

Company

Description

Location

Cost

Pipelin~es Nova Gas Transmission Ltd. Phillips Petroleum Nova Gas Transmission Ltd. Enbridge Inc. TransCanada Pipeline Ventures LP Suncor Energy

4.5 5.0 1,000.0 650.0 14.0

Grande Prairie No. 1, County of Mackenzie No. 23, Municipal District of Alberta Wide Alberta Wide Red Deer No. 23, County of

Pipeline Pipeline 21km

Pipeline Re-routing

Pipeline Capacity Addition Pipeline Expansion Pipeline for NOVA Chemicals

Koch Oil Co. Ltd. TransCanada PipeLines Ltd.

40.0 11.0

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Flagstaff County Red Deer No. 23, County of

Encal Energy Ltd.

11.0

Ponoka No. 3, County of

Pipeline Terminal Pipeline to NOVA Chemical plant (27km) Sour Gas Pipeline

Sub Total

7.0

5,637.5

Power0 Heartland Energy Air Liquide Canada/TransAlta Energy Corp. TransAlta Utilities

95.0 100.0

Strathcona County Strathcona County

Co-generation Facility (95 MW) Co-generation Power Plant 120 MW

315.0

Cogeneration Facility (360MW)

CU Power Canada Ltd.

150.0

Nova Chemicals/EPCOR/ ATCO Power Glacier Power Ltd.

320.0

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Lacombe County

Hydro-electric Power Facility (40MW)

West Edmonton Mall

20.0

Fairview No. 136, Municipal District of Edmonton

ATCO Power (formerly CU Power International) EPCOR

35.0

Sexsmith

Natural Gas Power Plant West Edmonton Mall Power Generating Plant (43MW)

115.0

Edmonton

Rossdale Generating Plant Upgrade

ATCO Electric (formerly Alberta Power) Syncrude

13.0

Transmission Line

TransAlta Utilities

20.0

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Red Deer No. 23, County of

80.0

Cogeneration Plant (170 MW) at Muskeg River Mine Cogeneration Power Plant (400 MW)

(170MW) 6.0

Transmission Line Union Carbide Substation, Red Deer substation upgr

Sub Total

1,269.0

by: September City Forecast 1999 Committee,

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

0 0Pr 0 0

0 0 0

Soio-Economic Forecast, 1999 2004, City of Edmonton

Company

Location

Cost

Description

Residential

Omega Developments Inc.

3.0

Edmonton

Rosedale Manor * Communitas Group Capital Management Ltd. Grandin Developments Ltd. Qualico Developments

2.1

Edmonton

10.0 4.7 7.5 2.5

Edmonton Edmonton Red Deer Strathcona County

University of Alberta Carrington Properties Ltd. Melrose Place

3.5 5.8 2.1

Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton

The Churchill Seniors Complex Apartment Building Apartment Building Condominiums "Heritage East Phase II" Conversion of Maison St Joseph Convent to Senior C Conversion of YWCA Building to Seniors Housing Conversion Office Building to Seniors Apartments Grandin Green Condominium Complex Heritage Park Tower Apartment Building Montfort Heights Condominium Project Multi-Family Development (Foxhaven Cove) Renovations to Newton Place Seniors' Apartment Building Seniors' Apartment Building

Melrose Place Phase 2

4.2

Edmonton

Seniors' Apartment Building

United Active Living Inc. Crown Care Seniors Housing and Recreation Planning Foundation Shepherds Care Foundation Medican

8.0 4.3 9.0

St. Albert Camrose Edson

Seniors' Condominiums Seniors' Housing Seniors' Housing Complex

7.6 5.5

Edmonton Strathcona County

Pioneer Housing Foundation

4.5

Strathcona County

Shepherds Inn Seniors Apartments Sierras of Sherwood Park Seniors Complex Silverbirch Seniors Lodge

Beaver Foods Ltd.

60.0

Regional Municipality of Wood

Suncor Energy Living Quarters (Work

3.8 40.0 3.3

Buffalo Edmonton Edmonton Red Deer

Camp) The Pointe Condominium Complex Townhouses "Rail Town" Two Apartment Buildings and Parking

Edmonton Edmonton

West Promenade Condominium Complex Wolf Willow Manor Seniors' Apartments

Alberta Wide

Fibre-Optic Cable Link

* *

Manulife Financial Carrington Properties Cove Properties Miller Bros. Crown Properties International

Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton Strathcona County Edmonton

10.0 4.7 2.3 7.5 25.0

_Corp.

--*

*Housing

Carrington Properties Christenson Developments Robust Investments Ltd.

_Garage

Carrington Properties Challenge Group (Edmonton)

3.0 6.3

Ltd.

Sub Total

Telec'mmunications

Shaw Communications Inc. Sub Total

250.2

11.0 11.0

Preparedby.: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

Sodo-Economic Forecast, 1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton Company

Description

Location

Cost

Touirisrn/Recreation0 Royal Inn West Edmonton Fountain Park Recreation Centre Harrison Construction Management Ltd. Casino Edmonton Highgate Hotel Holdings Cedaridge Properties Inc. Bear River Development Co. Edmonton Space & Science Centre Union Bank Inn Derrick Golf & Country Club West Edmonton Mall Edmonton YMCA Vision Enterprises 7 Crowns Corporation MacDonald Island Park Society Snow Valley Ski Club Strathcona County City of Edmonton Alberta Community

3.5 4.1 2.7

Edmonton Edmonton Strathcona County

Addition Addition/Alterations Baseball Facility

11.0 3.7 25.0 4.0 10.0

Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton Grande Prairie Edmonton

Casino Coast Terrace Inn Renovations Commercial Development Entertainment Complex Expansion & Renovation, Four Galleries

2.5 2.6 15.0 11.0 3.0 5.5 2.0

Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton Edmonton Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo Edmonton Strathcona County Edmonton Regional Municipality of Wood

Expansion/Renovations Facility Expansion Galaxyland Hotel Health Facility Holiday Inn Express Hotel Indoor Soccer Facility

2.5 27.0 6.2 2.1

Buffalo

Expansion

16.0

Edmonton

One Thornton Court Hotel Retrofit

20.0 22.0

Edmonton Edmonton

Phase IV Development Radisson Plaza Hotel

2.0 2.8 15.0

Peace River Red Deer Edmonton

Renovations Renovations Renovations

5.0

Edmonton

Renovations Coast Edmonton Plaza

Development

Investors Acceptance Corporation West Edmonton Mall Dorsett Hotels & Resorts International of Hong Kong Best Canadian Motor Inns Holiday Inn Express Londonderry Neighbourhood Inn Coast Hotels & Resorts

New Clubhouse New Recreation Complex Northeast Soccer Fourplex Oil Sands Discovery Centre Facility

Downtown

Fringe Theatre Adventures

2.5

Edmonton

Renovations, Old Strathcona Arts Barns

PR Developments Ltd. Valley Zoo Development Society Trans America Investments Ltd. Famous Players Inc. Royop Hospitality Corporation

15.0 2.5

Leduc County Edmonton

Royal Inn Airport Centre Sea Lion Facility Replacement

18.0 34.0 2.7

Strathcona County Edmonton Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo

Sheraton Hotel/Entertainment Centre Silver City Theaters (2) Super 8 Motel

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, September 1999

S ... .... ..1999 - 2004, ..City of Edmonton Socio-Economic e Forecast,

Company *Tourisw/Recreati

Cost

Location

Description

KenAlta Developments

3.6

Vermilion

Super 8 Motel/A&W Express

Tankoos Yarmon Group O&Y Enterprise /AMC Theatres of Canada

15.0 40.0

Sylvan Lake Edmonton

Sylvan Lake Village Centre Theatre Complex in The Grande on Jasper (former Hu

Sub Total -

359.5

Grand Total 38,223.5 Source: Alberta Economic Development, Inventory of Major Alberta Projects

Prprdb:CtSoeatCmite etme 994

. ..

] Socio-Economic Forecast,1999 - 2004, City of Edmonton Appendix II Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area

A -

]

REDWATER

-I~3---

City D

w nT

Town

Primary Highway Highway Secondary Railway ala

unty

BON ACCORD 2 MORINILE

Village

SUrban

County Boundary

Service Area Boundary

racona

Sot

County

La---ke

sPLAIN

ymnN'

County

SParkland P e

PARK

SHERI OOD

VA~onD

DEVON

-- AMNr2

LEDUC

bLeduc Map Data Currnt as of June 29, 1998

"e r

Waftnag,

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, September 1999

County

kilometres