Edmonton Socio-Economic I
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2006-2011
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EDMONTON SOCIO-ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2006 - 2011
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee
October 2006
Copyright 0 2006 by the City of Edmonton c/o: 3r d Floor, City Hall Sir Winston ChurchillSquare Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T5J 2R 7 The City of Edmonton provides this information in goodfaith but it gives no warranty nor accepts liabilityfrom any incorrect, incomplete or misleading information, or its use for anypurpose.
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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK .......................................... SOCIAL OUTLOOK ................................................
IMPLICATIONS OF THE OUTLOOK ......
1
TABLE 2 - CITY OF EDMONTON POPUATION .. TABLE 2- CITY OF EDMONTON POPUATION PROJECTIONS........................................21 TABLE 3 - EDMONTON CMA POPULATION
2
PROJECTION S........................................22
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BUSINESS SECTOR................................................2 GOVERNMENT AND THE PUBLIC SECTOR ............ 2 FAMILIES AND INDIVIDUALS................................2
PART 2: SOCIAL OUTLOOK.........................23 KEY SOCIAL ISSUES......................................23
RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ................... 3
Social Implications ofDemographic Change..23 D iversity.......................................................24 Families and Children....................................27 ................................. 28 Health.... 31 Seniors.......................... 32 Education ..................................................... Poverty..........................................................34
RECORD BREAKING GROWTH EXPECTED IN 2006 5
Child Care....................................................36
INTERNATIONAL FACTORS INFLUENCING THE
Culture..........................................................37 Recreation andLeisure .................................. 38 39 Safety ............................................................... Comm unity Revitalization .............................. 41 Drug Use Prevention......................................41
INTRO D UCTIO N .................................................
3
PART 1: EDMONTON ECONOMIC OUTLOOK .............................................................
3
EDMONTON ECONOMY.........................................5
5 Energy Markets ................................................. 6 O il Prices ....................................................... Natural Gas Prices...........................................6 United States/CanadianEconomic Growth ...... 7 Implicationsfor the Edmonton Economy..........8 DOMESTIC FACTORS INFLUENCING THE ECONOMY....................9 EDMONTON Regional Investments ......................................... 9
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APPENDIX I - Edmonton Employment by Industry ................................................................
44
APPENDIX II - Edmonton Gross Domestic by Industry ............................................. 45 Regional nvestments.........................................9Product Product by Industry....................45 Population- Ten Years of Growth in Five Years ......................................................................... APPEND IX III - Edm onton Census
Labour Market ................................................ 12 Housing Market..............................................13
APPENDIX III- Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area.........................................46
Prices...............................................................
MEMBERS OF CITY FORECAST
EDMONTON'S ECONOMIC FORECAST.................17MIT
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RISKS......................17 Downside Risks to the Outlook.......................17 Upside Risks to the Outlook...........................18 TABLE 1 - KEY FORECAST INDICATORS.....20
FRC
S
COMMITTEE ...............................................
47
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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report is an update to the spring 2006 issue which was prepared primarily as a reference for preparing the City of Edmonton's departmental business plans, the City's Capital Priorities Plan and Budget and the City's Long Range Financial Plan.
Economic Outlook
I
2006. As such, the Edmonton CMA is expected to receive 18,500 net migrants this year - more than double historical annual averages. Due to these large population increases, we now expect population growth in the Edmonton CMA will reach 2% per year, and grow by 112,000 people by 2011 before reaching 1.13 million. The city of Edmonton will grow by 70,000 people before reaching 784,000 people (2005-2001). Edmonton will now see ten years of growth (based on previous projections) in five years time.
Economic Growth
Risks to the New Outlook
Growth in the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) is expected to increase by an average of 3.8%, or $2 billion per year over the next five years on the heels of continued strength in major infrastructure, institutional and energy projects in northern Alberta, including over $30 billion in proposed upgrader developments in the Edmonton CMA. The new economic projections are considerably higher than our previous projections,
Despite the surge in population and economic growth in Edmonton so far in 2006, there are several risks inherent in our economy that could affect our higher population and economic growth projections. Some of these risks include:
due primarily to stronger than expected economic
infrastructure projects have already reached
growth during the first half of 2006, brought on by strong population growth.
25%. Increases in construction costs are expected to continue into the forecast period, and could make several projects uneconomical.
Phenomenal Numbers for 2006 Phenomenal for 2006 Numbers Key economic indicators for the Edmonton CMA show strong growth so far in 2006, perhaps the strongest year on record. For the first nine months of 2006, Edmonton's real estate market is witnessing one of its strongest performances on record, with average residential selling prices up as much as 50% year-over-year during the month of September, while total new housing starts were up by 16%. Apartment vacancy rates have fallen from 4.5% last year to 1.5% by mid-year 2006. The labour market also remains tight, with the unemployment rate hovering around 4%. Surge in 2006 Due to Large Population Growth One of the main reasons for Edmonton's strong economic performance in 2006, along with the significant upward revision in our growth projections, is due primarily to a large increase in population growth. According to Statistics Canada, Alberta net migration reached a record breaking 72,000 people between July 1, 2005 and June 30, Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
1) Rising construction prices - Non-residential construction costs could increase by 10% in 2006, while cost escalations for public
2) A United States recession - Several economic indicators show the United States economy is softening, led by a large slowdown in housing activity. If the United States continues its slide into the forecast period, it could soften global economic conditions and reduce global energy demand. This could bring down energy prices, and reduce investment activity in Alberta. 3) Continued overheating in the home market Lack of available and affordable housing could deter people from moving to Edmonton, which population could negatively impact our projections. 4) Capacity concerns - Given the phenomenal growth this year, the Edmonton economy may have already hit full capacity, and may not be able to accommodate any additional investments, including the $30 billion in proposed upgraders.
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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
Social Outlook
Government and the Public Sector
The anticipated increase in Edmonton's population in the forecast period will be centred on the mature and elderly segments of the population, with the number of people over the age of 50 expected to increase by 70,000 compared with an increase of 41,000 for those under 50. This increase in the aging population could increase the demand for services such as health care, appropriate fitness programs and seniors housing.
Over the next few years, Edmonton's government and public sector will benefit from: * Continued strong economic growth in the province * An increased assessment base * Infrastructure grants from the Alberta government and gasoline tax rebates from the federal government.
At the other end of the population spectrum, the number of persons in the 10-19 age group categories will fall by almost 3,000 people, or 2%. This decline in youth may begin to have implications for schools, including post-secondary education institutions, and other youth focused services. growth, which should Continued employment oontinued e etgth wichoushold translate into continued strength in household incomes, may alleviate some of the pressures of an aging population. Edmonton recorded a median household income of $67,325 in 2002 - the fourth highest among Canadian CMAs. Increased household income is expected to reduce the number of people living below the poverty line and should help limit the impacts of a broad range of social issues.
IMPLICATIONS OF THE OUTLOOK Business Sector
However, Edmonton's government and public sector must deal with: * Continued municipal infrastructure shortfalls, even after receiving the infrastructure grant and the gasoline tax rebate * Increased demand for municipal services as a result of growth, e.g. roadways, transit, parkland, etc. parkland, etc. * Continued demand for government services in health, education and infrastructure as a result of he aging population and positive net migration the aging population and positive net migration shortage of affordable housing * A Increased homelessness. Increased homelessness.
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Families and Individuals Over the forecast period, Edmontonians are expected to benefit from: * Increased employment and income opportunities as well as higher after-tax incomes despite tempering by high energy prices. Edmontonians must also deal with: * A widening gap between the haves and have-
nots in our society.
Over the forecast period, Edmonton's business community is expected to benefit from: * Higher population growth * Continued spin-off from investment activity in energy, pipeline and resource-related projects in northern Alberta However, Edmonton businesses must adjust to: * A shortage of skilled labour in certain occupations * Increased house prices and rental rates * Higher energy costs. P Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
0 INTRODUCTION
Oil Sands Investment ($Billions)
This report provides an economic and social analysis of the current and future changes in the City of Edmonton and the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (see map in Appendix III) for 2006 to 2011. This report is an update to the spring 2006 issue and is used as a reference for preparing the City of Edmonton's 2007-2009 departmental business plans, 2007 departmental operating budgets, the 2007-11 Capital Priorities Plan and the 2007-2016 Long
Range Financial Plan.
In addition, other public
agencies, citizens and businesses use the forecast for planning purposes. T11,000 The City Forecast Committee monitors economic social activities and trends throughout the year. and The Committee prepares an outlook report semi-rates The Committee prepares an outlook report semi*annually in spring and the fall. *
_
PART 1: EDMONTON
-
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
0o.o
.0 .
7.07 6.0 5.0
.0
4.2
4.0 1.9
30
2.
1.0o . .E.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
d..aIotOfPtuPd
As a result, 100,000 new employment positions, or per year, were created in the Edmonton CMA since the start of the oil sands boom in 1996. Strong employment growth and low interest rates also strengthened consumer spending, which in turn fuelled strong residential construction activity, adding 85,000 new homes in the Edmonton region since 1996 (over 56,000 new homes built in the city
of Edmonton). Edmonton Housing Starts Edmonton (C.M.A.) and Edmonton (City)
Recent Economic Developments
..
(nhods) 16.0"
0
City
14.0
The Edmonton CMA has been one of the fastest growing economies in Canada over the past several years, due largely in part to strong infrastructure and investment, and, most importantly, a *institutional surge in~2.0' energy investments particularly in oil sands development in northern Alberta. According to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, oil
12.o0
10.0
0.o 6.0
.
0.o0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
sands investment in Alberta increased from $1.3 billion in 1996 to $8.5 billion in 2005, on the heels of rising energy prices and a new generic oil sands royalty rate introduced by the government of Alberta in the late 1990s.
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 sectors) softened consumer spending and kept economic growth at 2.1% in 2003.
Edmonton's Labour Market New Jobs Created - Edmonton (C.M.A.) (Thousands)
30.00
24.3
20.0
16-5
15.6
Economic Growth By Industry Since 1997
Is.I s
(Percent Changein Real GDP - Top Four Industries)
10.15
7A1
7.0
.
t
Construction
68.8
0.0 Trade, Transportation &
.20.0 . 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
59.3
Warehousing
4.0
-10.0
Fiance, Insurance, Real Estate Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
22.3
"
22.3
Manufacturing
13.2 25.0
0.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
The combination of high energy prices, strong investment activity and a surge in employment
growth increased incomes and the spending power for consumers in Edmonton and throughout Alberta. Average weekly earnings (per person) increased from an annual average of $664 in 2000 to $770 in 2005 - a 16% increase. As a result, consumer spending in Edmonton, which represents almost 50% of all economic activity, has averaged 4% per year since 1998 - almost double its historic long run annual average rate of 2%.
Edmonton Economic Growth (Percent Change in Real GDP)
. .o 4.0
.
20
.
3.
2
I
0.0 -2.0 -4.0
Edmonton Consumer Spending
-.
(Annual percent change)
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
6.0
45.1 4.3
4.04.404.13.
Edmonton's population also benefited from strong economic activity, growing by 2% per year for a total increase of 78,000 people in the Edmonton CMA (46,000 people in the city) between 2001 and
3.2
S3.0
,
,
,
2.0
1.o 0.0
2005. The Edmonton CMA population in 2005 is
199
1998
0
4.5
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
estimated at 1,016,000, while the city of Edmonton
municipal census showed a 712,391 population.
Consequently, total gross domestic product (GDP) in the Edmonton region increased by 27% since 1999, or an annual average growth rate of 3.5%, led by strong growth in the construction, trade, manufacturing, finance, insurance and real estate sectors. Low oil prices in 1999 led to a retraction in economic activity in Edmonton that year, while weaker employment growth in the goods producing sector (manufacturing, construction, oil and gas
Edmonton's labour market grew by 3%, or 15,000 employed persons per year, between 2001 and 2004 in response to strong economic growth. However, tight labour market conditions, softer service sector employment and a reduction in the number of people participating in the labour market sent total employment down by 1.4% or 8,000 employed persons in 2005.
October by:2006 City Forecast Committee, Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
Record Breaking Growth Expected in
Historical Net Migration
2006
Edmonton (C.M.A.) and Alberta
Historical Net Migration . (thousands)
Growth in the Edmonton region was exceptionally
s80.o0
strong up to 2005, but key economic indicators show
.70.0
even more growth so far this year - perhaps the strongest year on record - particularly in Edmonton's housing market. For the first eight months of 2006, total new housing starts in the Edmonton CMA were up 16% year-to-date over the
50.0. .
same time period in 2005, while completed and
available inventory of new homes were down as much as 34% year-over-year during the month of August. As a result, average selling prices of newly constructed homes were up as much as 38% in August 2006 from August 2005. With respect to the re-sale housing market, average single home selling prices were up 46% between September 2006 and September 2005, while the number of active listings stood at 1,859 units in June of 2006 - a 60% decline from a year ago, and a 31% decline from January 2006.
EAlbertan
.o
40
33.8
23
30.0 20.0
14.
1
1o.o
.
2000
2001
5. 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2006 netmigrationfmo CMAin2006is anestimate basedontotalAlbemt Totalfor Edmonton
Given increased provincial population growth, along with the surge in almost every major economic indicator for the Edmonton CMA so far in 2006, there have been significant changes to our economic projections for the Edmonton CMA, which are explained in further detail in the sections below.
The rental market is also experiencing robust
International Factors Influencing the
growth. According to CB Richard Ellis' Market View Report, apartment vacancy rates in Edmonton fell from 4.5% a year ago to 1.5% during the second quarter of this year. In the non-residential sector, vacancy rates in Edmonton's industrial market plummeted from 3.2% in 2005 to 1.6% during the second quarter of this year, with no vacancies whatsoever in some areas within the Edmonton CMA.
Several external factors, such as low interest rates and high energy prices, played a pivotal role in Edmonton's recent economic boom, and will continue to play an important role in Edmonton's economic future. Some major external factors are considered below
Edmonton Economy
Energy Markets This robust growth means Edmonton's labour market remains tight, with unemployment hovering around 4% so far this year, and employment up 3.8% from a year ago. One of the primary reasons for this robust growth so far in 2006 is the large increase in population. According to Statistics Canada, total net migration into Alberta reached a record level of 72,000 people between June 2005 and July 2006, with an estimated 25%, or 18,500, of those migrants settling in the Edmonton CMA - more than double its historical annual average level of 8,000 people.
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Continued strength in oil and natural gas prices, due to strong global demand fundamentals and continued geo-political instability, will increase the probability that investment in energy related projects will grow in the Edmonton region. Oil prices are expected to average $60 US per barrel per year, while natural gas prices are expected to average $7 per gigajoule (GJ) per year. However, a slowing U.S. economy will contribute to a slower world economy, and thus, softer global energy demand, which will lower prices slightly over the nextfive years.
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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
Oil Prices Geopolitical
uncertainties
and lack
of supply
flexibility historically result in high oil prices.
In
July, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price surged to a record $78.40 US per barrel due to Israel's attack on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Iran, Nigeria and Iraq continue to be major geopolitical hot spots. Tensions over Iran's nuclear program, the violence between Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq and ethnic unrest in the Niger Delta have pushed up the price of oil. In addition, the biggest oil field in the United States, Prudhoe Bay, was shut down because of pipeline problems. Repairs are expected to take six months, curtailing Alaskan oil production by 50 million barrels in the meantime. Finally, world petroleum consumption is forecasted to increase from 1.3 million bbl/d in 2006 to 1.8 million bbl/d in 2007. However, the tensions between the United States and Iran seem to be diffusing recently, OPEC has maintained production, Israel has pulled out of Lebanon and a global economic slow down caused a drastic decrease in oil prices. In mid-September, crude oil prices fell by more than $S15USsince July's record high. Also, according to the United States Department of Energy, in early September the United States crude oil inventories were at their Lastly, increased highest level since 1998. expected to come is Angola and Brazil in production on-line after 2007. Consequently, the average oil price likely will decrease in the last quarter of 2006, resulting in an annual average of $68US per barrel. Geopolitical instability and possible action by OPEC to keep prices above $60US per barrel will keep prices at an annual average of $69US per barrel in 2007. However, a softening United States economy will reduce world economic activity and energy demand, which will soften the price of oil down to $57US per barrel by 2010.
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
World Oil Prices (US$/bbl) 70
M.0
o
69.0
.0
65
so60 ss so50
5.o
57.
45 5
3 30
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Natural Gas Prices The October natural gas futures settled at $4.89US per 1,000 cubic feet on the NYMEX. This is the first time the front-month natural gas price has been below $5US in two years. The main drivers for this drastic decrease are a lighter hurricane season than last year and mild weather. The 2005 record breaking Atlantic storm season had 14 hurricanes, four of which occurred before the end of August. The 2006 Atlantic storm season is forecast to have seven to nine hurricanes and, as of August 24, had yet to produce a hurricane. A mild hurricane season and a mild winter have increased storage inventories in both the United States and Canada. In early September, United States natural gas inventories climbed to 3.08 trillion cubic feet, the earliest natural gas storage levels exceeded three trillion cubic since the Energy Department began keeping records. With the return of regular winter weather, potentially warmer-than-normal summers and a tightening supply, it is projected that natural gas prices will increase in 2007. After 2007, natural gas prices are expected to decrease as unconventional sources of natural gas, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal bed The methane, become more widely available. Russian Arctic region is expected to export large Lastly, the United States amounts of LNG. Congress has been under pressure to open the Outer Continental Shelf (moratorium on drilling expires 2012) to gas exploration and development. Consequently the average 30-day spot price at AECO-C is expected to decrease to an annual average of $6.30 CAN per gigajoule in 2006. Page
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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
0
Increased unconventional sources of natural gas, along with a softening United States economy, will bring natural gas prices down from $7 CAN to $6.40 CAN per gigajule by 2011.
Alberta Natural Gas Prices (S/CG)
10 9
7.0
'
3
6.
6
6
s 4 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
United States/Canadian Economic Growth The low level of interest rates has benefited Edmonton homeowners since the mid 1990s. Interest rates have recently begun to increase in response to increased Canadian and United States economic growth. However, there are signs that the United States economy is beginning to weaken, which will help keep interest rates low in Canada for some time to come. The United States economy overcame many hurdles
5.25%. The new Federal Reserve Board Chairman, Ben Bernanke, who replaced Alan Greenspan earlier in 2006, hinted at further rate increases in 2006 in response to continued strength in energy prices, which could feed into inflation. However, since the beginning of 2006, the United States economy has begun to soften. Consumer spending, which represents two-thirds of the economy, has softened from 4.8% growth in the first quarter of 2006 to 2.6% in the second quarter. Growth in gross private investment fell from 16.2% in the last quarter of 2005 to just 2.8% in the second quarter of this year. Total non-farm employment is down 20% year-to-date, while the housing market also appears to be slowing down. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of existing homes fell 0.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.30 million. Sales have fallen five months in a row and in nine of the past twelve months, and are down 12.6% in the past year - the lowest sales pace since January 2004. The median price of an existing home fell 1.7% year-over-year to $225,000 - the first time since April 1995 that median prices have fallen on a year-over-year basis. It is the second largest decline in the 38-year history of the realtors' survey, exceeded only by a 2.1% drop in November 1990. Given these circumstances, the United States economy is expected to reach 3.4% in 2006 before falling to 2.6% in 2007, and will average 2.8% per year for the remainder of the forecast period.
in 2005 and posted a respectable 3.5% economic
growth rate, lower than the 4.2% achieved in 2004, but higher than the 2.7% in 2003. According to the Conference Board of Canada, last fall's hurricanes cost the United States 300,000 jobs and approximately $100 billion in property damage, resulting in higher energy prices and a further deterioration of the trade deficit. However, despite these hurdles, the United
States economy was
United States Economic Growth Forecast (Percent Change in Real GDP) 4.0
3.4 2.8
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
buoyed by growth in employment, a 3.6% increase in consumer spending and a 6% increase in business investment. 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
In response to strong economic growth over the past few years, the Federal Open Market Committee
.
(FOMC) of the Federal Reserve Board in the United States raised its federal funds borrowing rate from a historical low of 1% in 2003 to its current level of
Strong economic growth in the United States over the past few years has also had an impact on the
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
Canadian economy. United States
Rising energy demand in the
in response to strong economic
Prime Lending Rate Forecast
conditions contributed to higher world energy prices. This helped the Canadian export market and contributed to robust growth in energy producing provinces, primarily in western Canada. However, high energy prices and a strong economy pushed up the value of Canadian dollar, with the exchange rate rising to an annual average of $0.83 US in 2005, up substantially from $0.71 US in 2003. The strong ascent of the Canadian dollar had a negative impact on the nation's non-energy export market and its manufacturing sector. Consequently, the Canadian economy grew by 2.9% in 2005, the same growth rate achieved in 2004.
(Percent)
e.s
0
5.7
s.s 5.5
.s
s.s
5.s
4.5
11
3.5 -1
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Canada Economic Growth Forecast
As in the United States, the Bank of Canada also raised interest rates in response to strong economic
(Percent Change in Real GDP)
conditions in 2005. The average annual prime lending rate reached 4.4% in 2005, up from 4% in 2004. However, due to recent weakness in the United States economy so far in 2006, it is expected the Canadian export market will be affected by lesser U.S. demand for Canadian goods and services Also, a weaker United States from Canada. economy may keep the Canadian dollar strong as more foreign investors place their money in safehaven economies such as Canada, and away from a weakening United States economy.
3.s5
3.2
2.
2.8
2.8
2.
2.8
0 2.5
1.5. 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
As such, it is expected the Canadian economy will Implications for the Edmonton Economy grow by 3.2% in 2006 before softening to 2.9% in will affect economic The preceding year for the remainder 2.8% per 2007, and averaging ill affect icforces w foreign econom preceding foreign st ons quen e o sl werThe rec a of erio t e .f A Edmonton's economy over the next five years: of the forecast period. As a consequence of slower growth, it is expected the average annual prime lending rate in Canada will remain at its current * Slightly lower interest rates will keep consumer level of 6% for the remainder of 2006, giving an
spending strong, and may soften the impact of
annual average of 5.8%, before falling slightly to 5.7% in 2007 and 5.5% per year between 2008 and 2011 in response to weaker United States and Canadian economic conditions.
* *
*
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
rising home prices, keeping residential construction strong High energy prices will ensure continued strength in investment activity in and around the Edmonton area High energy prices will ensure a strong Canadian dollar, which may bring in muchneeded labour from eastern Canada where a strong dollar is having a negative impact on their manufacturing sector High but declining energy prices will soften gasoline and home heating costs, which may benefit consumer spending.
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* * *
* *
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
Domestic Factors Influencing the Edmonton Edmonton Economy Economy
Oil, Gas and Oilsands
R Regional Investments
*
$5 billion upgrader by Fort Hills Energy Corporation in Sturgeon County.
The Edmonton region is already a hub of valueadded petrochemical development and oil refining. However, an additional $30 billion in proposed upgraders were recently announced by various industry participants to be built within the Edmonton region over the next five to ten years. This, along with investments in other key sectors, will contribute significantly to the Edmonton regionaleconomy.
*
$5 billion for all three phases of the bitumen Inc. Upgrading Northwest upgrader.
*
$5 billion for the Scotford expansion by Shell Canada.
* *
$5 billion upgrader by Total Canada Ltd. $2.9 billion for all three phases of the 'Alberta Heartland' bitumen upgrader project in Strathcona County by BA Energy Inc.
*
$2.8 billion for the 'Northern Lights' upgrader by Synenco Energy. An upgrader by Petro-Canada (unknown cost estimate at this time).
High energy prices and increased demand for energy products from China, the United States and other countries throughout the world led to five new oil sands upgraders/refineries totalling approximately $30 billion being recently announced or proposed by various companies. Construction for these projects
*
upgrader
will begin in the Edmonton region over the next three to five years (see below for further information). In addition, several proposed pipeline projects totalling about $3 billion will be built between Edmonton and Fort McMurray, and from Edmonton to the west coast, to ship crude oil and petroleum products to new markets in western United States and overseas to China. Non energy related investments are also significant, with billions of dollars in institutional and infrastructure projects are already under way or expected to begin construction over the next few years.
*
The Major Projects List published by Alberta Economic Development, shows that all proposed, announced, recently completed and under construction projects in Alberta total a record $139 billion. The Fort McMurray (Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake) area holds the largest proportion at 42%, or $59 billion, followed by the Edmonton region with 22%, or $30 billion, and Calgary with 14%, or $19 billion. What is interesting is that Edmonton's share of the overall total proposed or announced investment in Alberta increased from 10% in early 2005 to its current proportion of 22%.
0
The following projects will have a significant impact on the Edmonton economy over the next five years:
0 *
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
0
*
$1.6 billion by Petro-Canada Oil to upgrade existing facilities to process bitumen. *$3$3 billion for various new pipelines between Edmonton and Fort M eMurray, and between Edmonton and the west coast.
Commercial/Retail/Residential *
*
*
*
$600 million for the Heritage Mall redevelopment to the Century Park mixeduse development. $300 million for a proposed condo complex project by Carma Developers / Abbey Lane Homes. $210 million for the Centre in the Park retail/commercial development in Strathcona County by various developers. $95 million for the Citadel Village seniors health care complex in St. Albert.
Infrastructure *
$608 million to extend the LRT From Health Sciences to Heritage.
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Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 * $493 million for the Anthony Henday Drive extension in southeast Edmonton by Alberta Transportation. *
$350 million for Whitemud Drive/Terwilligar Drive intersection upgrades by the City of Edmonton.
*
$125 million for an interchange at 23 rd avenue and Calgary Trail by the City of Edmonton. Edmonton.
population growth. Population growth could have been even stronger if it had not been for the British Columbia economy which performed very well over the same time period and kept a fair number of people from moving into Alberta. As a matter of fact, net migration into the Edmonton region fell from 12,500 people in 2000-01 to just 5,700 in
*
Historical Net Migration Edmonton (C.M.A.) (thousands)
$750 million for a campus redevelopment project by Northern Alberta Institute For
20.0
Technology.
16.0
$577
million
for
the Health
Sciences
Ambulatory Learning Centre.
18.o0
12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0
*
$355 million for the Cross Cancer Institute.
40
*
$300 million for a new Remand Facility.
0.0
*
$280 million for the Centennial Centre for Interdisciplinary Science (CCIS) by the University of Alberta. $192 million for the North Treatment Centre at the Royal Alexandra Hospital by Capital Health. million for the Mazankowski Heart $142 * siu b Cpio Halth. Institute by Capital Health.
*
*
0
2002-03 due to a strong British Columbia economy.
Institutional *
0
$100 million for an Arts Center by Grant MacEwan College.
of Years Growth in Five - Ten Population - Ten Years of Growth in Five
.4 8.2.
"
2000
•
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
for2006 Albmret igration ontotal CMA in2006isanetimate based forEdmonton Total
According to Statistics Canada, net migration and population estimates between July 1, 2005 and December 31, 2005 for Alberta are coming in very strong, with a record level of 72,000 net migrants almost double the annual average that the province had between 2001 and 2005. Since the Edmonton CMA has historically captured approximately 25% of total provincial migration in any given year, it is expected that total net migration will come in around 18,500 to 20,000 people for 2005-06 year, more than double its historical annual average (actual figures for the Edmonton CMA will not be known
until 2005-06 tax filer data is released).
Years
As mentioned earlier, population growth in the Edmonton region has performed quite well between 2001 and 2005, growing by 2% per year for a total gain of 78,000 people (44,000 gain for the city of Edmonton), with net migration averaging 8,000 persons per year - approximately half of total annual
A significant reason for the large influx of people into Alberta over this past year is attributable to a weaker eastern Canadian economy, particularly in Ontario where the strong Canadian dollar has had a negative impact on its manufacturing sector. Subsequently, more people moved from Ontario to Alberta to take part in its vibrant economy. As a matter of fact, an average of 12,000 people a year moved into Alberta from Ontario between 2001 and 2004. At the same time, however, around 11,000 people moved out of Alberta to Ontario, giving a net balance of 1,000 people. According to Statistics Canada, Alberta gained almost 30,000 people from
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 10
We expect population to grow by 2% per year and reach 1.12 million in the region by 2011 and 784 thousand in the city - higher than previous projections due to record level population and economic growth in 2006.
0
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
*
Ontario in 2006, while only losing 9,600, for a net balance of 18,200. The drop in out-migrants is most
likely due to strong economic conditions in Alberta which discourage people from moving away to other jurisdictions.
The growing
gap
between
Edmonton's Net Migration Outlook
Edmonton (C.M.A.) Net Migration Population Forecast
(XT hnds)
2E0
those
moving in and out from Ontario is a trend that is common between Alberta and most of the other provinces across Canada, which is depicted by the following charts.
20.0 20.0
1
15-o
1 10.0s
o
o S
m5, 15.0
6.
1
V
&5
5.0 Alberta Average annual migration 2000-04 (000's) Out - Migration Net Migration in - Migration B.C. Sask Ontario Maritimes Manitoba
25.4 12.4 12.0 8.0
19.0 7.0 11.0 5.6
6.4 5.4 1.0 2.5
5.2
3.1
Quebec
2.4
2.1 0.6
YT
0.5 1.1
1.8 0.3
NWT NVT
0.1
Intemrnational
20.0
Totals
37.3
0.2
0.8
0.3
0.1 7.0 18.6
13.0
0.0 18.7
Alberta Average annual migration 2006 (000's)
I 2006 2DD6 200
I
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2007
21308
2009
2D10
Mil_____
The difference between the base and high case scenarios, along with a declining net migration profile over the forecast period, is attributable to the ability of the Edmonton economy to accommodate this increased growth. Higher home selling prices, combined with a lack of available and affordable
housing, and declining vacancy rates, will hinder the
in - Migration
Out - Migration
Net Migration
B.C.
30.2
22.6
7.6
ability to move here for some people across Canada
Sask Ontario
15.7 27.8
7.8 9.6
7.9 18.2
and within Alberta. This may result in a decline in
Mantmes
17.8
12.4
the number of in-migrants over the forecast period.
Manitoba
9.0
5.8
Quebec
5.8
However, strong economic conditions over the forecast period will prevent people from moving out haly
NWT
0.6 1.8
5.4 3.2 2.1
NVr
0.2
0.1
0.1
International
17.2 52.4
2.5
14.7
14.3
71.8
V-r
Totals
0.3 0.8
3.7
0.3reinkepg 1.0
of the Edmonton region, thereby keeping a healthy
(although declining) positive net-migration balance for the remainder of the forecast period.
. Given the new population estimates provided by Statistics Canada for 2006, we expect net migration into the Edmonton CMA to reach 18,500 in 2005-06
Given the new net migration profile, it is now Given the new net migration profile, it is now expected that total population growth in the Edmonton CMA will average 2% per year and grow
- approximately 25% of the provincial total - before
by 112,000 people by 2011 and reach a total
dropping slightly to 13,600 in 2007, and averaging 11,500 per year for the remainder of the forecast net migration have net Higherhave period. period. Higher projections reaching an average of 15,000 people per year. Both scenarios are much higher than our previous assumption of 8,500 people per year, which was a reasonable assumption to make given the historical reasonable assumption to make given the historical trend of Edmonton's net migration performance.
population count of 1.13 million people. Higher growth scenarios will have the Edmonton CMA grow by 130,000 people and reach a total population of 1.14 million people by 2011. The city of Edmonton is expected to grow by 72,000 people by 2011 and reach a total population count of 78,0pel.Hihrgotscniswllav 784,000 people. Higher growth scenarios will have the city grow by 85,000 people and reach a total population count of 795,000 people. Longer-range estimates have the Edmonton CMA population growing between 180,000 to 230,000 people over the next ten years. Essentially, we are going to receive ten years of growth (based on
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 11
S 0
II
S Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 previous population projections) in five years time under the new projections.
people aged under 20 and the City having larger share of young adults and people aged 60 and over. This
changing
age
structure
has
important
implications for various sectors of the economy:
Edmonton's Total Population Outlook "10 years of growth in 5 years" Edmonton (C.M.A.) and Edmonton(City) (X Thousand)
1,6W
=
..
o
*
Nd...
CNMA ppd..n.....by,000 CMAp p.hd.to to go populaton City
to gio by44,000 1,400 Ciypopulhtiou
cMA
by70.000(M,000hib
stu )
*
Ciy
1
S1,0
059
1,040
group between 25 and 34 will increase demand for apartments and first-time buyer housing
.b)
.. by2,000,(130,00
1076
1,0
093
The growth in the number of people in the age
127
,0oo
The large increase in the 50s and 60s age group will support demand for more expensive housing
and 'empty nester' or retirement housing 12
*
2
7
72
600 4 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
The high growth in the number of people aged 65 and over will increase demand for social and health care services.
2011
Despite this increase in population growth, it is still expected that Edmonton's population will continue to age. The proportion of the population aged 50 and over is expected to increase by 70,000 people in the Edmonton region over the next five years, compared to an increase of 40,000 people under the age of 50 years. The share of those aged 50 and over will increase from current levels of 28% to 31% by 2011. Our aging population has a direct impact on the size of the working age population (ages 15 to 64) and the labour force, which is comprised of people either working or looking for work. As the working age population ages, more people will leave the labour force than enter it.
Labour Market Employment growth in the Edmonton region is expected to rebound in 2006 by 2.2% and average aroundl.8% peryear on the heels ofimproved labourforce participationfrom increasednet migration into the region. However, growth in service sector employment will struggle over the forecast period,as higher wages being offered in the manufacturing, construction and energy sectors lurepeople away from lower paying service sectorpositions. After eight consecutive years of strong employment gains,
and despite
continued
growth
in
labour
demand, employment finally took a step back in Edmonton (C.M.A.) Population
2005, falling by 1.4%, or 8,000 employed persons,
Change-by-Age Forecast (2006-2011)
due to a drop in the number of people in the labour force and tight labour market conditions which made
(Thousands)
29.6
3o.o
it difficult for employers to fill any job vacancies in
2s.3
25.0
20.0
1Edmonton's
IS.o
1,.2
10.0
4.9
.0. -s.0
-2.8
-10.0 15.00-9
10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79
80+
skilled labour market. According to Statistics Canada, 73% of those who left the labour force in Edmonton in 2005 did so to return to school, while the remaining 27% left because of an end of a temporary or contract job. This had an impact on Edmonton's service sector economy, as the number of people employed in the
The population of the City of Edmonton and the Edmonton CMA have broadly similar age profiles, with the CMA having a slightly larger share of
accommodation and food services industry fell by 13.7% in 2005. Also, according to Statistics Canada, around 85% of those aged 25 to 44 are currently employed in Edmonton, which has made it difficult for employers to fill any job vacancies from existing labour supply pools in the Edmonton region.
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 12
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
*
Edmonton's Labour Market
Edmonton Labour Market Forecast
New Jobs Created - Edmonton (C.M.A.)
Edmonton (C.M.A.)
(Thousands)
(thousands)
000
0 Employed Penam
30.0
0 Unemploymet
16.0
Rate (%.)
14.0 20.0 10.0
15.6
16.5
15.1
153
12.0
12.0
11.2
11.4 10.2
10.0
9.9
10.0
.[
4.o -10.0
0
0.00
A
2.0 ..
37
3.5
3.5
.1
,37
-
2.00
-20.0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Despite the decrease in 2005, employment has steadily increased since the beginning of 2006. According to Statistics Canada, the seasonally adjusted level of employment increased by 0.8% year-to-date, but was up 2.8%, or 16,000 new persons employed, on a year-over-year basis during the month of September.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Housing Market Housing Starts Total housing starts in the Edmonton CMA are expected to increase from near-record levels of
As such, it is expected total employment in the
13,294 in 2005 to 14,700 units in 2006. Housing
Edmonton region will increase by 2.2% in 2006, and average 1.8% per year for the remainder of the forecast period - higher than previous estimates due to increased net migration which will help the labour market fill vacant job positions, particularly in the skilled labour market. However, we expect more challenges in Edmonton's service sector labour market, as strong wage rates in the goods producing sector (manufacturing, construction and energy sectors) will act as a drain on certain service sector positions, as more people leave lower paying positions to take advantage of higher wage rates in other sectors within the Edmonton economy, and in other areas throughout Alberta. As such, the labour market in the Edmonton CMA will struggle to reach growth rates of 3% per year as was the case between 2001 and 2004.
starts in the city are expected to increase from 9,430 units in 2005 to 10,100 units in 2006. The increase in new home construction activity is due to strong economic conditions, an increase in population growth and a shortage of available homes in both the re-sale and new home markets. Rising home prices, rising constructioncosts, and a lack of skilled labour in the residential construction sector, will soften new home activity slightly throughout the forecast period, but strong economic fundamentals will keep average housing starts at 13,000 per yearfor the region and 9,000 for the city for the forecast period - much higher than pervious annual average estimates of 9,000 for the region and 7,500for the city.
Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October2006
Continued low mortgage rates and strong economic conditions kept the new home market strong in Edmonton in 2005 with 9,434 total housing starts the largest single year total since the 10,500 level that was reached in 1981. Total housing starts in the Edmonton CMA followed suit with 13,294 starts the highest since the 17,000 level reached in 1978. According to the Monthly Residential Construction Digest released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the inventory of completed and unoccupied single family housing units for the Page 13
I
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
City of Edmonton at the end of 2005 reached 398 units - 5.2% lower than in year end 2004, with 40% of that inventory situated in the city's southwest.
Edmonton's Re-Sale Market Edmonton (C.M.A.)
Strength was also evident in Edmonton's resale
.
MSalestoListngs Ro
market, as sales increased by 6%, while listings fell
.
-Avg.Selling Pnce
2%, which brought total active listings to 2,894 by year end 2005, down from the 3,854 level at the end of 2004. In response to strong demand and weak supply, average residential selling prices for single family, condominium and row house dwellings reached $193,934, up 8% from 2004. Single family home prices increased 9% to $220,347, while condo prices increased 5% to $141,009, and duplex/row house prices increased 13% to $181,432. Previous estimates had housing starts projections for 2006 at levels lower than those witnessed in 2005, due to the threat of increasing interest rates and tight labour market conditions which would have reduced the ability for home builders to keep pace with their projects. However, with a softening United States economy and a strong Canadian dollar threatening the manufacturing and export markets, the Bank of Canada has had no choice but to stop increasing rates, and may even have to resort to reducing rates in the near future to prevent the national economy from softening further. In addition, greater than expected population growth in Edmonton so far in 2006, coupled with declining inventories of available and affordable housing, has kept residential construction strong in the Edmonton region. Total housing starts in the Edmonton CMA are up 16% year-to-date, while total starts in the city of Edmonton are up 9%. Inventory of completed homes were down as much as 34% year-over-year during the summer, which contributed to an increase in selling prices of 20%. As a matter of fact, the
H Is N <
.. Is
°
*
As such, it is expected that total housing starts in the Edmonton CMA will reach 14,700 units in 2006, with city housing starts reaching 10,100 units. Total housing starts are expected to decline slightly over the course of a few years as the residential construction market struggles with labour shortages and increased construction costs, major factors that have contributed to the recent dramatic rise in current average selling prices. This may deter people from buying a new home in the near future, particularly those who already reside in more affordable housing or rental accommodations in the Edmonton area. Total housing starts are expected to average a healthy 13,000 units per year in the Edmonton CMA and 9,000 units per year in the city of Edmonton over the next five years. Edmonton Housing Starts Outlook Edmonton (C.M.A.) and Edmonton(City) HousingForecast
(XThousand) .0 16.0
0
Resale market statistics are also showing robust growth so far in 2006. Average single home selling
10.0
prices were up 46% year-over-year during the month
7.0
Cisy
CMA
ncay
I....:
",7,0100
ElCL
AO... ., .. M-2 ,50 (P= 311"tI A,-V)
14.7
15.0
1.0
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
r
1=
new housing price index for Edmonton increased 38% in August 2006 over August 2005.
of September, while the number of active listings stood at 1,859 units in June of this year - a 60% decline from June 2005, and a 31% decline from January of this year.
0.81
...
70...
3.
itl
7
..
.
Avet
7,0
12.7
12.7
,.
:,
SA
12.7
Il
12.0 11.0
&o 2007 -
2008
2009
2010
2011
-
Page 14
0
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
Rental Market R e nta Mark eV
acancy Rate Forecast
The apartment vacancy rate in Edmonton reached 4.5% at the end of 2005 and is expected to fall to 1% by the end of 2006, and remain at that level for This is due to increased the next few years. population growth and a lack of available and affordable housing in the Edmonton region which is keeping prospective new home buyers from entering the home market.
on (Chy) 3.5s 3.0o
2.
2.5
.
2.0
1.s5
.
1.0 0.s 0.0
The annual Rental Market Survey by CMHC pegged the apartment vacancy rate in Edmonton at 4.5% in 2005, down from the 5.3% rate in 2004, as *October the total number of available apartment units decreased due to reduced rental apartment starts and conversion of apartments to condominiums in 2005. According to CMHC, total completed inventory of rental units stood at 478 units at the end of 2005, 26% lower than year end 2004, while inventory
2006
2007
2009
2008
2010
2011
0
-
0
0
Consumer prices in Edmonton are expected to increase to 3.5% in 2006 and 2007, up from 2.1% in 2005, and average
than year end 2004, after rising for the most part between 2002 and 2004. Total rental unit starts also decreased in 2005, falling 25% from 2004 levels,
wage settlements.
3% per year for the
remainder of the forecast period on the heels of high energy and other product prices and higher
However, non-residential
was
construction costs are expected to increase much
increased net migration from persons aged 19-24
more rapidly over the forecast period, due higher
that moved into the Edmonton region from other
labour and materials costs associated with non-
contributing
to
reduced
vacancies
areas across the country. Rising vacancy rates between 2001 and 2004 has made it difficult for landlords to increase rental rates, making it more attractive for current prospective renters.
0
Prices
under construction stood at 518 units, 24% lower
Also
0
Prices
According to CB Richard Ellis, apartment vacancy rates dropped to 1.5% during the second quarter of this year, due to a larger than expected population growth rate along with larger than anticipated declines in available and affordable new homes, According to the Monthly Residential Construction Digest by CMHC, total new starts of apartments in Edmonton have totalled 103 units between January and August of this year - an 80% decline when compared with the same time period a year ago. It is now expected the apartment vacancy rate will fall to 1% by the end of 2006, and remain at that level for the next few years as population growth and continued low levels of affordable and available homes keep people away from home ownership.
Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 2006
residential construction projects. Edmonton's inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased 2.1% in 2005, up from 1% in 2004, due to higher utility and energy costs, gasoline prices and higher wage settlements. The price per litre of regular gasoline in Edmonton increased from $0.73 in January 2005 to as high as $1.10 in September 2005 in response to the impacts of hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the United States. Average weekly earnings reached $789.15 by the end of 2005 - a 6% increase from 2004. The non-residential construction price index, which is also reported by Statistics Canada, measures changes in contractors' selling prices for new nonresidential building construction of commercial, industrial and institutional development. The index is generated by Statistics Canada through surveys of both general and specialized trade contractors, and excludes the cost of land, design and real estate fees. The index does not reflect totally the costs of projects for infrastructure and transportation Page 15
I
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
construction, such as overpasses and roads, which are more costly and comprise a large portion of municipal, provincial and federal capital costs. The non-residential construction price index increased 6.9% in 2005, almost similar to the 6.8% increase in 2004, as sustained tightness in Edmonton's skilled labour market continued to put upward pressure on contractors' selling prices for Also non-residential building construction. contributing to the increase in 2005 was the higher cost of construction materials, brought on by higher international commodity prices over the past few years, due to robust economic growth in countries such as India, China and the United States. Comparing the two types of indices shows that there has been a large divergence between the prices charged for typical consumer goods (groceries, clothing) and prices charged by contractors in the non-residential construction market over the last few years. Between 2004 and 2005, the CPI has only averaged 1.6% per year, while the non-residential construction price index has averaged 6.9%. Before 2004, both sets of indices moved closely together, averaging 2.5% per year. Infrastructure costs for public sector projects have also increased considerably over the past couple of years for most public sector organizations across North America. Both the Government of Alberta and the City of Edmonton have experienced cost escalations for their infrastructure projects in the range of 20% to 25% so far in 2006.
Edmonton region phenomenon, but is also a characteristic nationally and across north America. As of August 2006, Canada's inflation rate was hovering at 2.1%, while prices for raw materials used in construction were up 9%. As such, consumer prices in Edmonton are expected to increase a further 3.5% in 2006 and 2007, and average 3% per year for the remainder of the forecast period on continued strength in energy prices and further increases in wage settlements, which will translate into higher costs for businesses, and higher prices for consumers. However, the nonresidential construction price index is expected to continue its upward trend, increasing by 10% in 2006 and a further 9.4% in 2007 on the heels of continued labour market tightness and strong global economic conditions. Weaker United States economic growth in the near term will translate into softer world economic growth and will help lower raw materials prices, bringing down the nonresidential construction price to 7% in 2008 and 4.8% in 2009. Non-residential construction costs will struggle to return to their long run annual average rates of 2% over the forecast period, and will greatly outpace CPI growth in the near term. Therefore, we can expect the prices paid by consumers for typical consumer goods, such as groceries and clothing, to face a lower growth rate than the prices paid by private and public organizations for contractors and other construction and infrastructure related costs.
Edmonton Region Inflation Rate Forecast Edmonton's CPI and Non-Residential Construction
(Annual Average Percentage Change inConsumer Price Index)
Price Indices
5.5
(Annual Percentage Change)
5.0
7.0
0
6.5
6.0 50
Non Residential Construction
4.5
Price Index Consumer Price Index
4.0 3.5 3.53.0
3.0 2.5
1.5i~
2.0 1.5 1.0
1.0
3.5 3.0
L
2006
2007
2008
3.0
3.0
3 2009
2010
2011
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
[0
J0 The inability for the conventional CPI to capture rising energy and materials costs is not only an Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October2006
Page 16
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 2011. However, continued strength in Edmonton's residential housing market will keep a lid on the
Cost Escalation Comparative Outlook
number of available and affordable homes in the
(Annual Average Percentage Change)
....
30.
eco omy )
cad U.S. C-m--dty pto .,.., 0.( z mu B .0 25
COE a
dl
250
.region, (rm
uN D S a , C aN oraReJ s cs m (om,.,.Wuk)
20.0
.o-.15.o **'d_ -
^>)
MsalM-.Moon2on
20.0
S15.0 I.8
.8010
cost escalations
for
construction projects and a lack of skilled labour will keep economic growth from reaching 2006 levels. Higher wage rates being offered in the energy and manufacturing sectors of the economy will also act as a drag on service sector employment, which will also soften economic growth.
10.0
9.4
continued
while
,
0.0-trtr
S2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Edmonton Economic Growth (Percent Change in Real GDP) 6.0
5.5
5.0
S
Edmonton's Economic Forecast
4.5
4.0
*3.0
*In
_--,
view of all the international and domestic factors that will have a direct impact on Edmonton's economy, not to mention the explosive population growth that we have experienced so far in 2006, it is expected that the economic growth rate for the
2.0 1.0
0.0
200
2007
2008
200
2010
2011
Edmonton CMA will reach 5.5%, or $2.1 billion
*dollars
in 2006 and reach an estimated $42 billion in total gross domestic product - one of the largest increases in history, on the heels of continued residential construction, increased population growth, and spin-offs from energy investments in
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RISKS
northern Alberta.
Downside Risks to the Outlook
growth will gain a further 4.5%, or $1.9 *Economic billion in output in 2007 on continued strength in consumer spending and investment in energy related but slightly softer residential construction *projects, activity and softer population growth in 2007 will keep economic growth from reaching or surpassing the levels in 2006. Lack of affordable and available housing in the Edmonton region will limit the amount of people moving here, while dramatic increases in average home selling prices in 2006, along with increased residential construction costs borne by developers, will reduce the residential construction activity slightly in 2007. 0
0 0
High energy prices and spin-offs from continued energy investments in northern Alberta, along with strong population growth and consumer spending, will ensure that the Edmonton CMA economy will grow a healthy 3.6% per year between 2008 and Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
1) Higher than Expected Cost Escalations for Construction Projects As mentioned above, cost escalations in the nonresidential sector are expected to reach 10% this year for non-residential building construction and even more for infrastructure and transportation projects, such as those being undertaken by the City of Edmonton, Government of Alberta and other government agencies across North America. Cost escalations are also being felt by many private sector companies, including those directly involved in Alberta's energy industry. If cost escalations continue at their current pace, it will become very expensive for any organization to proceed with their investment intentions, possibly putting at risk several planned infrastructure, transportation and energy related projects.
Page 17
I
2) A United States Recession Our discussion on the United States economy in the above sections provides some evidence to support the publicly held opinion that the United States economy is slowing down, and will continue to soften into the forecast period. However, several analysts believe there is a strong possibility of recession in the United States next year, which would have a profound impact on the Canadian economy. Exports could decrease dramatically, and energy prices could come down considerably, negatively affecting Alberta energy markets. 3) Continued Overheating of the Housing Market We have discussed in detail the increase in yearover-year home selling prices, along with large declines in available and affordable housing in the Edmonton region so far in 2006. Should average selling prices continue their upward momentum, and the number of affordable and available housing continue its downward momentum, there is the risk that our net migration estimates could come in a lot lower than current projections, as people stop coming to Edmonton from other areas to seek happens, the following If that employment. outcomes are a strong possibility: *
Lower net migration and population growth will keep labour markets tight in the Edmonton region as less people become available to occupy job positions vacant inability of the economy to fill vacant SThe positions will keep employment growth low, and may force several employers to cut back or may force several employers to cut back ory
operations, despite high demand suspend their for their services; *
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
erce forwter Lower employment growth and a reduction in services will negatively impact overall economic t iand growth in the short term.
materials, which brings the issue of capacity to the forefront. If the current economy is only reacting to current market demands, and is not preparing for the anticipated development of over $30 billion in upgrader projects, then there will be very little capacity to accommodate future growth in the Edmonton region.
Upside Risks to the Outlook Better Than Expected United States Economic Growth Better than expected economic growth in the United States for the remainder of this year and into 2007 could also help boost the Edmonton economy, as more goods and services, particularly from the energy sector, are exported to the United States
Softening HousingMarket Average selling prices in both the resale and new home markets have been growing at strong rate over the past few years, but growth has been nothing less than remarkable over the past year, including the first seven months of 2006. Edmonton is still regarded as one of the most affordable places to live in Canada, but that is quickly changing. Recent data is suggesting a lack of affordable and available homes in the Edmonton region, not to mention very low vacancy rates in the rental market. If selling
prices soften, and more homes and apartments become available, then Edmonton will be in a better position to accommodate larger population growth, which will help with tight labour market conditions, at st he En i improve the Economy substantially.
4) Capacity Constraints
A Balance Between the Supply of Residential and Non Residential Lands
2006's remarkable year-to-date growth in all major economic indicators and high population growth will give the Edmonton region one of its strongest economic performances in its history. However, we have also noticed a reduction in affordable and have also noticed a reduction in affordable and available homes and shortage of labour and
Even though more affordable homes are needed to there needs sustain Edmonton's booming economy, there to be equal attention on the supply of industrial land within the Edmonton region. According to CB Richard Ellis, vacancy rates in the industrial market
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 18
0
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
in the Edmonton region fell from 3.2% in 2005 to its current level of 1.6%, with some areas experiencing no vacancy whatsoever. Vacancies in our industrial market will ensure the proper businesses are placed within our region to service Edmonton's growing business environment, and to service the anticipated construction of the $30 billion in upgraders. Regional Cooperation The Edmonton CMA is expected to experience robust growth over the next five to ten years, with continued investment in institutional, infrastructure and energy related projects. The Edmonton CMA is in position to be Alberta's economic engine with a strong emphasis on producing value-added products. However, as mentioned above, our economy is already hitting its capacity to accommodate new growth, while at the same time decaying infrastructure within the Edmonton region needs costly replacing and maintenance. To ensure the Edmonton region is in position to accommodate new
growth, the region needs to work together to plan and coordinate access to infrastructure, utilities and services, and to coordinate the movement of people and products across the region.
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 19
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 Table 1 Forecast for Selected Economic Indicators ActuallEstimate Indicator World Oil Price (US$/bbl) (1) Alberta Natural Gas Price ($/GJ) (2) Economic Growth Rate (% change)(3) United States Canada Alberta Prime Lending Rate (%) Exchange Rate(US$/Cdn$) Net Migration - CMA(000) (4) Population - CMA(000)(5) - City(000) (5) Economic Growth Rate (CMA)(%) Employment (CMA)(000) Employment Growth Rate (%) New Persons Employed (CMA) (000) Unemployment Rate(CMA)(% ) Inflation Rate CPI(City)(%) Non-Res Construction Price (% change) Vacancy Rate (%) Apartment (CMA, Oct) Downtown Office (the City, Dec) Housing Starts (Units) -Total City - Single Family - Multi-Family CMA -Total - Single Family - Multi-Family Building Permit Value - City ($million) Total (6)
Forecast
I
2007 2005 1 2006 2004 United States, Canada and Alberta 69.00 68.00 41.42 56.46 31.14 7.00 8.14 6.30 6.31 6.52
2003
2.7 2.0 3.1 4.7 0.71 5.7 975* 689* 2.5* 538 2.9 15.1 5.0 5.3 2.7
2.6 3.4 4.2 3.5 2.9 3.2 2.9* 2.9 4.5 5.5 4.5* 4.3 5.8 5.7 4.4 4.0 0.87 0.89 0.83 0.77 Edmonton Region and City 13.6 18.5 6.8 14.4 1,040 1,059 995* 1016* 741 728 712* 701* 4.5 5.5 3.3* 3.8* 569 558 554 546 2.0 2.2 -1.4 2.9 11.2 12.0 -8.0 15.5 3.7 3.8 4.5 4.8 3.5 3.5 2.1 1.0 9.4 10.0 6.9 6.8
3.4 11.8
5.3 8.6
8,956 3,857 5,099 12,380 6,391 5,989
8,159 4,030 4,129 11,488 6,614 4,874
1,075
1,604
2008
2009
2010
2011
66.00 7.30
60.00 6.80
57.00 6.50
57.00 6.40
2.8 2.8 4.0 5.5 0.85
2.8 2.8 3.5 5.5 0.83
2.8 2.8 3.5 5.5 0.83
2.8 2.8 3.5 5.5 0.83
11.5 1,076 752 4.0 581 2.0 11.4 3.7 3.0 6.9
11.5 1,093 762 3.5 590 1.7 9.9 3.5 3.0 4.8
11.5 1,110 773 3.5 600 1.7 10.0 3.5 3.0 3.0
11.5 1,127 784 3.5 611 1.7 10.2 3.5 3.0 3.0
1.0 4.0
1.5 3.5
2.0 3.5
2.5 3.5
1.0 5.0
1.0 4.5
9,434 5,023 4,411 13,294 7,623 5,671
10,100 5,600 4,500 14,700 9,100 5,600
9,300 4,800 4,500 13,600 8,000 5,600
8,700 4,400 4,300 12,700 7,300 5,400
8,700 4,400 4,300 12,700 7,300 5,400
8,700 4,400 4,300 12,700 7,300 5,400
8,700 4,400 4,300 12,700 7,300 5,400
2,111
2,375
1,880
1,710
1,600
1,590
1,540
4.5 7.1
0
0 0
SEstimates Sources: Actual/Estimate: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, CB Richard Ellis,
Canadian Petroleum Association, Sproule, Alberta Economic Development and The City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department Forecast: City Forecast Committee, October 2006 Notes: 1. World oil prices are for West Texas intermediate crude at Cushing, Oklahoma in U.S. dollars. 2. Natural gas prices are AECO 30-Day Spot Natural Gas Price (Can$/GJ)
3. The U.S., Canada and Alberta economic growth rates are for real GDP at market price. 4. Numbers are for July 1of previous year to June 31 of current year. 5. The population projections are based on base case growth scenarios. High growth scenarios have total population in the Edmonton CMA to reach 1.143 million people by 2011, and 795,000 people for the city of Edmonton.
6. Total building permit value contains "other" category at $10 million per year between 2006 to 2011
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 20
0 0
0
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 Table 2: City of Edmonton Population Forecast, 2005 - 2011* 2005*
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0 -4
37,487
38,898
39,612
40,113
40,520
41,001
41,858
5-9
39,554
39,923
39,992
40,413
40,882
41,503
42,051
S10
-14
42,613
42,889
42,495
42,052
41,785
41,574
41,113
S15
-19
50,448
49,296
49,532
49,484
49,186
48,713
48,298
S20
-24
67,792
68,256
68,440
68,266
68,648
68,808
68,876
25 -29
61,997
63,641
65,785
67,314
67,975
68,412
68,596
30 - 34
52,093
53,945
55,853
57,788
60,142
62,484
64,575
35 - 39
52,531
53,711
54,162
54,830
55,514
56,376
57,547
40 -44
57,098
56,295
55,072
53,470
52,377
51,985
52,428
45 - 49
56,565
58,374
59,094
59,636
59,716
59,179
57,767
50 - 54
48,112
50,540
52,480
54,333
55,606
56,730
57,868
55 - 59
36,979
39,013
39,883
40,928
42,784
44,599
46,401
60 - 64
26,804
28,190
30,684
32,801
34,691
36,695
38,475
65 - 69
22,866
23,594
24,395
25,434
26,537
27,675
29,081
70 - 74
20,891
21,051
21,177
21,498
21,803
22,270
22,886
75 - 79
17,071
17,819
18,218
18,440
18,584
18,653
18,699
- 84
12,131
12,598
12,811
13,203
13,575
13,996
14,431
85+ Total
9,359 712,391
10,152 728,187
10,894 740,578
11,497 751,499
12,071 762,395
12,616 773,269
13,159 784,109
S80
Prepared by: City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, October 2006 * 2005 City of Edmonton Census. Population estimates as of July 1.
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 21
I
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 Table 3: Edmonton CMA Population Forecast, 2006 - 2011* 2005*
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0 -4
57,916
59,321
60,466
61,313
62,038
62,887
64,275
5 -9
60,172
60,006
60,173
60,880
61,647
62,671
63,588
0
10 - 14
66,437
66,333
65,819
65,211
64,886
64,637
64,006
0
15 - 19
71,477
72,271
72,700
72,658
72,273
71,654
71,157
20 -24
80,744
82,320
82,611
82,518
83,102
83,382
83,555
25 - 29
82,833
86,828
89,902
92,127
93,168
93,882
94,237
30-34
73,753
76,220
79,035
81,889
85,330
88,763
91,853
35 -39
73,618
74,979
75,753
76,786
77,842
79,105
80,850
40 -44
85,534
83,972
82,228
79,909
78,325
77,828
78,585
45-49
83,445
85,565
86,724
87,619
87,827
87,131
85,155
50-54
70,634
73,891
76,861
79,657
81,633
83,412
85,188
55 -59
58,026
60,994
62,417
64,145
67,109
70,063
73,022
60 -64
40,998
43,274
47,143
50,535
53,556
56,673
59,370
65 - 69
31,982
33,035
34,197
35,712
37,324
38,982
41,022
70 -74
27,648
27,819
28,028
28,483
28,936
29,580
30,444
75 - 79
22,411
23,233
23,792
24,115
24,329
24,449
24,538
80 -84
15,801
16,304
16,603
17,131
17,640
18,209
18,804
85+
12,578
13,561
14,591
15,416
16,214
16,955
17,699
Total
0 0
0 0
1,016,007 1,039,927 1,059,043 1,076,105 1,093,177 1,110,262 1,127,346
Prepared by: City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, October 2006 *2005 Statistics Canada Post Censal estimate. Population estimates as of July 1.
0 0 Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 22
S
I. *
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
PART 2: SOCIAL OUTLOOK *
S * *
KEY SOCIAL ISSUES
years.
* Social Implications of Demographic Change
Edmonton's age-specific fertility rate and crude birth rate have been declining similar to the national decline in rates. In 1990 the annual age specific fertility rate in Edmonton was 66.5 live births per 1,000 women age 15-44. By 2003 this had declined to 51.8 per 1,000 women (and this was an increase from 2002 when it was 50.2). Edmonton's annual crude birth rate (live births per 1,000 population) decreased from 17 in 1990 to 12 in 2003.
Declining birth rates, smaller families andfewer children will have long term impacts on Edmonton's population and labour force, and could implicate overall ability to maintain facilities, programs and services. It is estimated that over the forecast period Edmonton's 0-9 year age group will increase by 3%. The 10-14 year age group will decline by 8% and the 15-19 age group will decline by 2.3%. This is consistent with the demographic changes that are happening in Canada as a whole. The national birth rate has declined by about a third between 1990 and
2000, reaching a plateau at 10.5 births per 1,000 *
Locally, Alberta's birth rate declined
population.
to 12.2 births per 1,000 population in 2002 and 0
Birth and Fertility Rates* Edmonton
Rate -Crude Birth 70.o0
0.o0
0.-------------------
50.0 40.0
-------------
---
30.0 - - - - - - - - - - - 20.0
Capital Health Region rate will remain above the
10.0
A lberta rate.
Rate -Ferility
80.0
rebounded slightly to 12.7 in 2004 and 2005. The national birth rate but slightly lower than the
*
countries. This compares with a rate of 2.0 children per woman in the United States. Alberta showed a slightly higher number of children at 1.69, and has shown increases in births in four of the last five
- -- - -- - - - - - - -- - -- - - -- - '
W , 118 9s 1 1
*9 s
* *M
Birth Rate per 1,000 Population Canada 18.-- -- ---------------------
-
--
--
1.1.4 13.2
S13.01
--
12.0 -- - -
--
-
.-
--------------i---,,------
- -- - -- - 1601.0
- - -- - -- - - -
e
--
'0. iili|
i
li
i
* s-tssi.c, dThis
S * 0 * i
*
01
0
1
Sr: CapitIal Heath Authority Ferlty roe= SBirth rate= I" birthsper 100.0po7uation.
*
----------
-- - - -- - -- - --
As of 2002, the number of children born to Canadian women remained near the all-time low set in 2000. It had risen slightly to 1.5 children for every woman of child-bearing age, approaching the rate of 1.4 children reported in many European
e b1dtths per 1.0000wormenag.1544
Immigration of younger families from other regions of the globe is expected to help mitigate the anticipated decline in the younger population and help support programs and services for older people
and young children. The lifetime fertility rate of women who immigrated to Canada from 1996 to 2001 was 3.1 births per woman of child-bearing age. However, the longer immigrant women stay in Canada, the closer their fertility rate mirrors the Canadian average, particularly if they arrived at a young age and received part of their schooling here. pattern of declining fertility is not as marked among women who immigrated from Asia and the Middle East (however, a relatively high proportion of immigrants choosing Edmonton are from these geographic source countries). The decline in fertility among immigrant women is significant, because natural increase (births minus deaths) has
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee,October 2006
Page 23
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 23
0
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 been making a steadily smaller contribution to our population growth for Canada in recent years. Edmonton's school boards are examining schools in neighbourhoods with declining populations of young children. School closures and amalgamation are intended to enable students to have quality programs with options available. Closure and sale of schools and school sites also frees up resources to renew existing priority facilities and for construction of new schools in areas of the city that are seeing rapid development and increasing population. Most closed school sites have been retained by the city to provide additional parkland in neighbourhoods. Some closed schools are being converted to community use including for a health care centre in Cromdale school. On the other hand, Edmonton schools as a whole are experiencing a growth in the number of students for 2006-2007 school year. This is likely due to in-migration of young families and newer family formation. Scolameigbourhod
School name Neighbourhood
Year
Relatively high Alberta incomes may be permitting increasing numbers of stay-at-home mothers. While good for families, this may however be negatively impacting the supply of service industry personnel. Diversity Edmonton's population is increasingly diverse. Businesses and governments that are not willing to be culturally sensitive may be marginalizing themselves from this growing portion of the population. Edmonton is a diverse city. 15% of Edmontonians are visible minorities; 21.8% of the population in 2001 had immigrated to Canada some time during More than 4% of Edmontonians their lives. identify an Aboriginal background. The City of Edmonton has established an Office of Diversity within its Administration. The Office will help to ensure City employment policies are not barriers to the workforce and the work force
Closed
Beverly Heights
2001
reflects Edmonton's diverse population.
Canora Elementary Stratheamrn Elementary
Canora Strathearn
2001 2001
the Office will help ensure Edmonton's citizens, regardless of background, are able to effectively utilize City programs, facilities and services.
Idylwylde
Idylwylde
2001
Queen Mary Park McQueen St. Patrick's Bellevue
Queen Mary Park McQueen Alberta Avenue Belleview
2001 2001 2003 2003
Cromdale Elementary H.A. Gray
Cromdale Westwood
2004 2004
Canada is now second only to Australia in terms of the percentage of its population that was foreign-
St. Rita
Dovercourt
2004
born. In 2001, 21.8% of Edmontonians were born
St. Bede
Goldbar
2004
in other countries.
St. Bride St. John
Forest Heights Oliver
2004
Athlone Wellin ton An North Edmonton edngton Balwin Terrace Heights Terrance Heights
While only about 2% of immigrants to Canada
2005 2005
select Edmonton
2005
The rising number of women in the labour force has been the primary source of growth in the labour market. However, in recent years the increase of women in the workforce is slowing down, particularly in the prairie provinces. Alberta's participation rate by women with children under age six fell by a full percentage point in 2005 to 64.9%, three points lower than its peak in 1999.
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
0 0
0
0
Immigrants
2004 2005
0 0
As well,
Beverly Heights
*
0
0
as their home, over 23,500
Edmontonians arrived from other countries during the 2001 to 2005 period. This is a significant increase from the previous five-year period when 19,000 people from other Edmonton as their home.
countries
chose
The following were the top sources of immigrants to Edmonton during the 2001 to 2005 period.
Page 24
S
0
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
b
Immigrants to Edmonton by Country of Citizenship,
Recent immigrants working in the 29 industries
2001-2005
16.0% 14.0% 12.%
10.%
(many "high tech" industries) that employ slightly more than half of all immigrants, earn 67.6% as
6.0%
much as their Canadian counterparts.
6.0% 4.0%
In Edmonton, recent immigrants had an employment rate of 76.1%, compared to 84% for other Edmontonians. Their unemployment rate was
2.0%
00
. Sa
higher (5.9%, versus 4.1% for others). Also, 21.2%
Citizenship migratin Soure:andCanada
Immigrants Choosing Edmonton by Country of Origin 2001-2005
~Immigrants to Canada choose Edmonton and
'eren Philippines E,11 India China Pakistan Afghanistan Korea U.S.. Great Britain Vietnam Sudan Ukraine
S
of immigrants (all periods of immigration) to Edmonton had low incomes, similar to the general population, whereas 40.6% of recent immigrants (1996-2001) had incomes below the Statistics Canada Low Income Cut-off.
3,18 30,6 948 74 636 586 5M8 558
13.7% 13.5% 13.0% 4.0% 3.2% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9%
It is noteworthy that over 40% of recent immigrants both to Canada as a whole and to Edmonton come from South, Southeast and East Asia. Many have different language backgrounds and over 10,000 (43%) to Edmonton knew recent immigrants toexplore two official reent nor French, Canada's mmigants(43% neither* English (Canada Citizenship languages and Immigration). Immigration). ~languages (Canada Citizenship and The majority of immigrants to Canada during the period 2001 to 2005 were of working age (25-64). On average, immigrants tend to have higher levels of education than people born in Canada, and adult immigrants are much more likely to seek additional education once they arrive. Notwithstanding their educational achievements, recent immigrants are more likely to work in low-paying or non-skilled jobs, and are more likely to be unemployed than On the whole, recent native-born Canadians. on average only 63% earn immigrants, aged 25-54, of their Canadian-born counterparts.
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Calgary for the same general reasons but in different proportions. The largest group, 38% of immigrants sampled, chose Edmonton for economic opportunity, 24% for family and friends, 19% for educational opportunities and 19% for Edmonton's quality of Life. Immigrants indicated the best thing about Edmonton is quality of life (41%), educational opportunities (31%) and economic opportunities (28%). Immigration and settlement issues are of interest to many in Edmonton and are one of Edmonton City Council's Special Initiatives for 2005-2007. The City will seek ways to increase the numbers of newcomers to Canada who settle in Edmonton's supportive and receptive community. Council will hold a round table on reception and settlement of newcomers with key stakeholders. Council will on agreement on of an an agreement possibility of the possibility explore the Alberta and immigration with the governments of oatatadrti Cndadepoewy Canada, and explore ways to attract and retain immigrants to our city. The City will contribute to this special initiative by supporting programs that attract immigrants and enhance their effective integration, by facilitating an immigrant forum to discuss concerns about social and economic integration, and collaborating with community groups to develop a vibrant international marketplace. The University of Alberta is the seat of the Prairie Centre of Excellence for Research on Immigration and integration. This institution is aiding the City
Page 25
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
of Edmonton and Government of Canada in examining ways to attract and retain immigrants to Edmonton. The February 22, 2006 Alberta Speech from the Throne stated that Alberta will develop a new strategy to increase awareness of Alberta as a destination of choice for skilled immigrants. The speech also indicated that the provincial government will expand immigrant settlement services and language training, and make it easier for foreigntrained professionals to work in Alberta. SAboriginalPeople Aboriginal are young, Edmonton'scommunities Edmonton's Aboriginal communities are young, growing in number and becoming better educatedr They are a group that could have an even greater impact on and make significant contributions to our economy and life in our city. Aboriginal people are under-represented in Edmonton when compared with the province as a whole (4.6% of Edmonton's population and 5.3% of Alberta's population identify as Aboriginal). Edmonton's Aboriginal population has grown substantially during the 1996 to 2001 period. Edmonton has the second largest number of Aboriginal people of major Canadian cities, after Winnipeg. As part of City Council's Special Initiative on Aboriginal Issues, the City has been working with Edmonton's Aboriginal communities to develop an "accord" to provide direction on how the City will interact with Aboriginal peoples, both as an
population in Edmonton could reach 44,000 to 47,000 by 2017, an increase of about 45%. If our Aboriginal population grows at the 1996-2001 rate, it could reach 55,000. That census found over 40,215 Edmontonians who indicated they had Aboriginal origins (ancestry) whether or not they identified as being Aboriginal (this larger group overlaps with those who identify as Aboriginal). It is widely believed that the Aboriginal population is undercounted in the Census of Canada. Aboriginal peoples in Edmonton are diverse within themselves and include North American Indians (themselves of diverse cultural and linguistic backgrounds) (44%), Metis (52%) and a smaller number of Inuit (1%). Metis people are overrepresented in Edmonton when compared to their proportion among Aboriginal people in Canada as a whole. There are also other groupings based on historic, cultural and legal issues. Edmonton is a magnet for many Aboriginal people looking for employment, housing, education and services. Some Aboriginal people move back and forth to the City from reserves and other communities surrounding the city or from Northern Alberta. Edmonton's Aboriginal people face many challenges. Some relate to income (Aboriginal people in the Edmonton CMA earn only 77% as much as do other Albertans), poverty (15% of the low income population of many neighbourhoods is Aboriginal), family disruption, subjugation of culture and language, substance and alcohol abuse, discrimination, and low employment and high unemployment levels.
employer and as a service provider. The City has established an Edmonton Aboriginal Accord Office, in cooperation with the Edmonton Aboriginal Urban Affairs Committee, to work with Aboriginal community leaders on further actions, An inclusive Edmonton Urban Aboriginal Dialogue process was undertaken in late 2005. More than 1,600 Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people participated.
The Aboriginal community is young and growing In 2001, 31.3% was under age 15 rapidly. 19.7% for the general population. On to compared the other hand, only 2.8% of Edmonton's Aboriginal communities are over age 65 compared to 11.6% of the general population.
In 1996, the federal census showed 25,285 people in Edmonton identified as Aboriginal. The 2001 Census indicated over 30,000, an increase of over 20%. Projections indicate the Aboriginal identity
unemployment rate for Aboriginal people was more than double that of the general population in 2001 (14% vs. 6%). Also, almost 44% of Edmonton's
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Aboriginal labour force (66%) force participation (66%) is Aboriginal approaching labour that of the city as a whole (70%). The
Page 26
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
[ 1 * *
Aboriginal people have low incomes (Statistics Canada Low Income Cut Off). * Most Aboriginal people in Western Canada work in the service sector as does the general population (74.1% of Aboriginal workers; 75.6% of nonAboriginal workers). Aboriginal youth are having a more difficult time with employment, 26.6% of Aboriginal youth in western Canada were unemployed compared to 17.1% of non-Aboriginal youth. Aboriginal people in Alberta have higher lower rate, participation force labour unemployment and higher employment rates than those in the other western provinces. Improved educational attainment, self employment (6.31% of people are self-employed) and Aboriginal increasing numbers of Aboriginal businesses (27% of Aboriginal businesses are located in Edmonton and area) bode well for improved employment rates and higher incomes in the future. *
*
Visible Minorities
The visible minority population in the Edmonton region (CMA) has increased in the last ten years due in large part to an inflow of immigrants. Of the 44,900 immigrants who arrived in Canada and settled in Edmonton during the 1990's, 71% were visible minorities. * Visible minorities contribute much to the richness of Edmonton adding to the diversity and vibrancy of cultural, religious, arts, leisure and other opportunities in our city.
* *
0 0 * * *
Visible minorities accounted for 15% of the Edmonton region's 927,000 residents in 2001, up from 14% in 1996 and 13% in 1991. Edmonton had the fifth highest proportion of visible minorities among census metropolitan areas, behind Vancouver, Toronto, Abbotsford and Calgary. About 20% of the city of Edmonton population were visible minorities in 2001. The proportion in 2001 was well above the national level of 13% and the Alberta provincial level of 11%. Every fifth person in the city of Edmonton was of a visible minority background.
About 4% or less of the population in the surrounding municipalities within the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area was comprised of visible minorities. The Edmonton census metropolitan area had about 41,300 Chinese residents, making it the fifth highest population of Chinese in the country. More than one in five Chinese people living in Edmonton immigrated in the past ten years. Other large groups of visible minorities in Edmonton included South Asians (29,100), Filipinos (14,200) and Blacks (14,100). 24.7% of Edmonton's visible minority population have low incomes, a much higher rate than the general population,
Families and Children Canadiansare waiting longer to marry. Commonlaw relationshipsand other family forms are more common. There is no one form of traditional family that applies to all Edmontonians. This will have additional impacts on employment benefits andfamily benefits and services. Somewhat out-of-step with the national trend, the number of marriages in Alberta increased between 2001 and 2004 by 3% (Canada as a whole showed a small decline). A more pronounced trend is a common-law relationship over marriage, particularly as a first union or following break-up of a previous marriage. 42.6% of Canadian men and 53.3% of Canadian women age 20-29 years selected a common-law relationship as their first union. The percentage decreases with age. People are also waiting longer to marry. The average age of brides in 1981 was 26.2 years; by 2001 it had risen by more than five years to 31.9 years. The average age of marriage for males also increased. Coincident with this, the average age of mother at birth of a first child also increases and people are having fewer children. People are also getting divorced at a later age. The 2001 Census of Canada also found that 0.5% of Edmonton families are same-sex couples.
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 27
SEdmonton Socio-Economic Recent changes to the Federal Marriage Act will likely have little impact on the number of these . families but may have positive impacts on their
Marriage and Common-Law as First Unions Canadian Women, 2001
CanadanWomen, 2001
stability.
EMarrlage OCommon Law
Stability is an important factor affecting families, especially children. Even before actual marital break-up, young children of parents heading for divorce tend to develop mental health problems more frequently than others. Data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and
1.0
-
-- -
-- -
-
-
-
0.2
0.0
50..-...
0-.
40-.4
....
--
0
-
----------------------------
0.4
divorce show higher levels of depression, as well as
--
-3aY.-
20.-2
Y.
sour.c: silisli Canada
higher levels of anti-social behaviour. Between 1999 and 2002 the number of divorces in Alberta rose slowly (7,931 divorces in 1999; 8,291 in 2002). However, the latest information available for 2003 indicates the number has dropped almost to the 1999 level. The national trend is similar. In 2001, 9.3% of Edmontonians over the age of 20 years was divorced.
Selected Family Types Edmonton, 2001 60%
so50%
4,1..
--
4
30%
Council's special initiative to make Edmonton a more child friendly city will be furthered by
27.8%
18.4%
2%I
'~
1o%
contacting child friendly cities around the world.
Married Couples
Edmonton will apply to UNICEF to become a
Married Couples
=
Common Common Lone Law(No Law(with Parents
(No (With Children) Children) Children) WlsChildren) (N Children) Children)
Child Friendly City and develop a process and A report card on
Edmonton's progress in this regard will be developed. Council has also approved full funding for "access to recreation for' low income families." This latter initiative will make recreational and selected cultural opportunities more available to families with very limited finances. Families First Edmonton will help determine whether a constellation of services, including recreation
-
. ..
Youth found that children whose parents eventually
-
-----------
1.2-----
strategy for implementation.
0
Outlook, 2006 - 2011
Soure: 2001CrmusofCanada.Stastls
0
Canada
_ Health _
The government of Alberta has conducted a review of its Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped program. Its aim was "to identify ways to renew AISH so it better meets the needs of
provision for children, will support families and
people receiving AISH, while ensuring the
increase their capacity.
program is affordable and remains available to Albertans who need it " In March 2006, as announced in the Speech from the Throne, the benefit rates for AISH recipients increases to $1,000 per month. In 2001, 15.8% of Canadians had some limitation to their activities due to physical or mental The percent of Albertans with a disability. disability was very close to the national average, at 16%, while the percent of Edmontonians with a disability was above the national average at 17.6%.
October by City 2006 Forecast Commiee, Prepared Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 28 Page 28
0
0 Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
1
* 0
Disability increases with age. About 6.5% of Edmontonians with a disability are under 15 years of age, while more than 15% are in each of the age groups greater than 44 years of age. An aging population will likely mean more people with disabilities. Accessibility to facilities, services and businesses will become even more important.
S Dcosts. Disability Rates by Age, 2001 S
20%
Edmonton UAlberta
s15% 10%
1*
s5% 0% 0-14
15-24
25-34
3544
45-4
55-64 65-74
*
Introducing a school curriculum on wellness next year to begin making Albertans the healthiest people in Canada.
The Alberta Government has consulted with Albertans about the concept of a "third way" to provide health care. This will involve re-definition of insured services with some form of private delivery and private-sector insurance for these The third-way package, Alberta's New Health Policy, will include: * Putting patients at the center * Promoting flexibility in scope of practice of health professionals Implementing new compensation models 0 Strengthening inter-regional collaboration Reshaping the role of hospitals * Establishing parameters for publicly funded health services Creating long-term
75+
years years years years years years years years
* Creating Source: Urban Poverty Project, CCSD, 2004
sustainability
and
and
Expanding system capacity
More than 82% of those over the age of 65 had at
* Paying for choice and access while
least one chronic illness (many have more than one chronic illness) and about 50% had a disability. At age 65, Edmontonians can expect to live an additional 13.8 years. Unfortunately, only three of these years will be disability free.
protecting the public system Deriving economic benefits from health services and research. Some concern exists on the part of public health care advocates and political opponents of the government that the new policy will lead to a twotier health system where ability to pay will determine access to services.
A provincially-appointed task force made a series of recommendations to improve the level of care and quality of life of residents in Alberta long-term care facilities. These recommendations are being considered by the provincial government. The Government of Alberta is ready to implement the remaining recommendations of the Premier's Advisory Council on Health (the Mazankowski Report). Initial steps will include: * Encouraging regional health authorities to be more innovative * Expanding Alberta's Electronic Health Record to make more patient information available to health professionals across regional health authority boundaries by 2008 * Creating an expert panel to review new and emerging health services for possible public funding
0
sustainability
flexible funding options
*
*
long-term
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
*
Provincial "Third Way" initiatives implemented by Capital Health in the Edmonton area include: * The Alberta Hip and Knee Replacement Project that makes these joint replacement surgeries more accessible with shorter wait times * Primary Care Networks from a team of health care providers * Support for regional mental health plan priorities including targeting special populations. The government is also investing an additional $500 million over three years (beginning 2005/06) in the Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research.
Page 29
S
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
Canada has one of the longest life expectancies in the world - 79.5 years for both sexes (77 years for males and 82 years for females) at birth. Life expectancy varies considerably within Canada. Remote, northern areas of the country have significantly lower life expectancies than the national rate. Edmonton (Capital Health Region) life expectancy at birth is 79.9 years for both sexes (77.4 years males and 82.4 years females) and is longer than the national and provincial rate (79.5 years both sexes). The gap between the national life expectancy rate at age 65 is even greater. The Edmonton rate is 19.5 additional years while the national rate is only 18.8 additional years. The gap between the Edmonton rate at age 65 years and the provincial rate is smaller. L.fe.1..?400f -i x tn -
-are
Both Males Females ExetnytSexes rs Years Years Expectancy- at Years Years Years b 8 7.1 Alberta79 Alberta 2.4 7.1 0. HR Calgary HR Calgary 4 .. . Capital HR Expectancy at age 65 20. 17 18.8 Canada 20. 17.4 192 Alberta . Calgary HR . . . Capital HR Over6%of are generally healthy. Edmontonians Edmontonians generally are healthy. Over 61% of those living in the Capital Health Region self-rated their health as excellent or very good during the five year period 1995-2000. This is just slightly
Edmontonians need to be encouraged to be more active. Inactivity leads to chronic health problems and a lesser quality of life. Physical activity and proper nutrition are keys to good health. Lack of regular physical activity puts people at increased risk of coronary artery disease, osteoporosis, stroke, high blood pressure, colon cancer and Type 2 diabetes. The Canadian Community Health Survey conducted by Statistics Canada in 2003 found that most Edmontonians are aware of the value of being They realize that exercise is physically active. important to maintaining good health, and they often are aware of what they should be doing to obtain health benefits. Almost 56.3% of Edmontonians (Capital Health Region) report they physically active or moderately active. Males are more active than females (56.3%
of males
report being physically active or moderately active in contrast to 47.7% of females). As well, Edmontonians are more active than the country as a whole (50.3% of Canadians report being physically active or moderately active). However, Calgarians and other Albertans are more active than Edmontonians (57.3% and 54% of Calgarians and Albertans report being physically active or 43.9% of moderately active, respectively). Edmontonians report being physically inactive. A survey conducted for Active Edmonton in 2003 also indicated that as many as 36% of the population have no intention of changing their activity patterns soon. 52% said they planned some increase in their physical activity within the next six months. People tend to become less physically active as they get older.
below the five-year average for all Albertans of 63.1%. 82.1% in the Capital Health people In of 2003, Inof2003, people 82.1%in the Capital Health Region had contact with a medical doctor in the past year (slightly above the provincial and national rates). 8.9% had contact with a health professional about mental health in the past 12 months (slightly higher than the provincial rate) and 62.7% had contact with a dental professional during the past year (slightly lower than the provincial and national rates).
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Council's Special Initiatives on "Sports, Recreation Opportunities" and "Capital Health Partnership" support the Active Edmonton program and plans for improved facilities, trails and parks to encourage Edmontonians to be active and help keep Edmonton an attractive City. The City will also help ensure civic facilities and public transit support health investments. Public health emergency plans will be formulated. Other partnerships in the health arena will be developed to help Edmontonians have healthy and long lives.
Page 30
0
S S SCapital
0 0 -
* 0of
0 *
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
0
Health Authority, with the City as a partner, is evaluating the use of thrombolytics ("clot busters") in the treatment of heart attack patients in efforts to save lives and reduce the impact of attacks. * Recent estimates say 50% of the United States population is overweight or obese. Canadians are not far behind their American cousins. Recent health information released by Statistics Canada indicates that over 59% of Canadians are overweight or obese. The research indicates that the percent of overweight/obesity in the community decreases with the size of city. Nevertheless, the percent of overweight/obese adult Edmontonians is larger than the national percent, while the percent is smaller. children overweight/obese Furthermore, the percent of overweight Edmontonians of all ages, is larger than the per cent for Calgary.
P
*
G
eogrpc A
re"
Geographic Area Percent Percent Age Canada
Age 18+
2-17
59.10%
26.20%
6090% 21.80% SAlberta 16.00% 53.80% Calgary * 6220% 21.40% Edmonton 0 * A disturbing fact is that almost one-third of * children aged 2-11 are overweight (29% of boys; 27% of girls in 2000-01) and about half would be considered obese. These rates tripled over the previous fifteen years for boys and doubled for girls. A high obesity rate, a high smoking rate and 0 a high depression rate are the strongest predictors * of a low disability-free life expectancy. Obesity is associated with additional social and personal problems for children. * * In May 2003, the City of Edmonton in collaboration with over 35 community and * governmental organizations (e.g. Capital Health, Edmonton Federation of Community Leagues, Sport Council, Health Canada) initiated Active Edmonton (www.activedmonton.ca) to increase and improve physical activity in Edmonton. Active 0 Edmonton has monthly events, challenge contests,
ty Forecast Committee, October 2006
0
P0epared by:
*
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
0
promotional symposiums, and workshops campaign, research and evaluation (to track participation levels, awareness and barriers). Active Edmonton Resource Guide, an information line (448-4555), weekly fit tips on A Channel and a web site. Active Edmonton is scheduled for completion in 2008. Edmonton's Mayor Stephen Mandel is honourary chair of Active Edmonton. The Active Edmonton model is being examined for potential use across Canada. Seniors The aging population poses challenges for our More programs and youth-oriented society. services are being designed with seniors in mind Researchers have found that, while both older and younger people believe most people are happier in their youth, quite the opposite is true. In fact, people report that they are happier with their lives the older they get. A
study, conducted by the VA Ann Arbor Healthcare
System and the University
of
Michigan, has found that older people "misremember" how happy they were as youths, just as youths "mis-predict" how happy (or unhappy) they will be in the their golden years. In all cases, older people reported being happier with their lives than younger people. While Alberta has the youngest population of all provinces, 10.4% of Albertans were 65 years of age or over in 2001. This compares to 13% for Canada as a whole. 11.7% of Edmontonians (11.5% in 2005), slightly higher than the rate for the province, were over the age of 65 in 2001. However, their numbers are growing rapidly. In the 10-year period 1991 to 2001, the number of seniors in Edmonton increased by 51% while the total population increased by only 8%. By 2011 it is expected that Edmonton will have about 97,000 people; 12.6% of Edmonton's population will be 65 years of age or over. By 2046 it is expected that one out of four Canadians will be over the age of 65 years. Council's special initiative on Seniors Issues will enhance services and opportunities for the growing
Page 31 Page 31
1
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
seniors' population. The City will improve its knowledge base and continue liaison and partnerships with relevant agencies. Council will also: * Implement Seniors Friendly training for City staff * Conduct forums for the City to ready itself for the growing seniors population * Help ensure equitable services for seniors. In 2006, Edmonton's City Hall was evaluated by the Alberta Council on Aging and declared a Seniors' Friendly building, the first among Canada's municipal halls. The City will also: * Develop a blueprint for action for senior's services Seniors' Edmonton the * Support and other agencies Coordinating Council Council and other agencies Coordinating * Expand City-operated Senior Centres. In 2006, Edmonton's City Hall was evaluated by Aging and Council the Alberta and declared a on Aging Council on the Alberta Seniors' Friendly building, the first among Canada's municipal halls. Adequate retirement income is a major factor in the well-being of older people. Canadians with incomes below $20,000 were much more likely to sayt they had no plans to retire than persons with an income $40,000 or greater. Retirement plans were also greatly influenced by whether or not the individual had a private (or employment) pension plan. Recent immigrants (arriving since 1980) were much more likely (47%) to have no fixed retirement plans and were also more concerned (45%) about the adequacy of their financial preparations for retirement. Consideration to reduce benefits for seniors because many seniors appear to be affluent may be misguided. A large group of Edmonton seniors, primarily older women, have low incomes and are dependent upon government transfer payments. The Government of Alberta-appointed MLA taskforce to gather input on proposed health service and accommodation standards for continuing care, mostly for Alberta seniors, has made a number of recommendations to improve the level and standard
of care as well as improve the quality of life of residents of long term care facilities. . During the 2000 income year 20.5% of Edmonton seniors (age 65+) had incomes below the Statistics Canada low income cut-off. This is the largest percent with low income of any adult age group and closely reflects the percent of the total population with low income. It is important to note that older women (and women in general) have higher rates of low income/poverty than do men. For the 75-84 year age group, 11.7% of men have low incomes while 25.4% of women, more than twice the rate of men, have low incomes. At the 85+ age group, the difference is much more dramatic; 31.8% of women have low incomes while only a small number of men have low incomes. Edmonton City Council approved a $39 property tax rebate in 2005 for older homeowners who have low incomes and are receiving the Alberta Seniors Benefit. While the rebate is relatively small,, it reflects the average increase in property taxes for 2005. The rebate shows the City of Edmonton's concern for older people who are on fixed incomes and have few financial resources. The federal government has stated that it is increasing the level of financial benefit for lowincome seniors. The provincial government is in the early stages of re-examining its benefits to seniors. On March 2, 2005, the Alberta Speech from the Throne indicated seniors' benefits would be expanded to include dental and optical needs along with help to cover annual increases in the education portion of property taxes.
0
Education Rising tuition fees at Alberta's post secondary educational institutions pose barriers that keep lower income individuals from improving their incomes and quality of life through the means of higher educational attainment.
0 0
Edmontonians like to think of themselves as being part of a "smart" city. Indeed, the percentage of
2006 Forecast Committee, October by City Prepared Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 32 Page 32
0
0 1
S *
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
Edmontonians (age 15+) with a university degree has increased from 15.6% in 1996 to 17.5% in 2001. The educational attainment of parents is a good indicator or predictor of the educational attainment of children. Each additional year of parental education increases the likelihood of university attendance for children by as much as five percentage points.
University Tuition 2001-02 Selected Programs
$6,000
sso0 0 s,ooo $4,500ooo
0 Arts tuition ($)2002-03 Science tuition ($) 200243 - --
0 Commerce tuition (5)200203 - - -(S)-2002-03 - - - -tuition - -0 Graduate ----
$3,soo500
-
-- -
-
-
I
$3,000
*
S 0 *
*
In 2005, the provincial government, as part of its Centennial Celebration introduced a new grant for newborn Albertans. The grant provides newborn Albertans with a $500 grant toward a Registered Education Savings Plan (RESP) for every child born to or adopted by Alberta residents in 2005 and after. S Tthe Three subsequent grants of $100 each will be available to children attending school in Alberta at ages 8, 11 and 14, starting in 2013. A child will not have to receive previous grants in order to qualify for subsequent grants. This grant should provide some relief for increases in tuition at Alberta's post secondary institutions. The percentage of men with a university degree exceeds that of women. In 1971, 6.6% of Canadian men and 3.5% of Canadian women had a university degree. Not only has the number and percentage of Canadians with a university degree grown but the gender gap in higher education is also narrowing. mend and 12.3% of In 1996 14.3% ofe Canadian h6 a% women had a degree . In Edmonton, the gap appears to be wider than in Canada as a whole. In Edmonton in 2001, 22% of men and 15% of women age 20-64 had a university certificate, diploma or degree. This is in contrast to 21.2% males and 21.9% females with a university certificate, diploma or degree on a national basis. Currently, enrolment of women in university exceeds that of men.
0Iwomen
--
$2,500 - -
$2,000
$1,500 s,0ooo00 lbe.,t
Source:
BC
Man.
MS
OnL
Qu.
S"
Gualityof Life in Canadian Communites. 2004.FCM
Alberta has among the highest post-secondary education tuition fees of the provinces. Alberta has highest tuition in science and commerce and second highest in arts. This has made it difficult for some Albertans, including some Edmontonians, to improve their educational attainment. As part of Alberta's Centennial celebrations, Premier Klein announced that tuition in Alberta post-secondary schools will remain at the same levels for 2005-06 as they were in 2004-05. Other policy initiatives include: policy initiatives include: 0
A new strategy to help ensure that money is not a barrier to students undertaking postsecondary education and training in Alberta post-secondary schools.
*
A new series of provincial scholarships and fellowships for graduate students at Alberta universities. naditi An additional 15,000 apprenticeship and post-secondary institution spaces in Alberta institutions over the next three years, growing to30,000 at the end of the next six years, and to 60,000 by 2020. A $3 billion endowment by the Alberta government for innovative programs at Alberta post-secondary institutions.
*
The February 22, 2006 Alberta Speech from the Throne stated that the provincial government will again cover the cost of tuition increases at public post-secondary institutions, and will develop a new tuition policy. It will also increase education in areas of skill shortages by increasing grant support
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 33
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 for specific programs. This includes partnering with Aboriginal groups and industry on new training projects for Aboriginal people. Edmonton City Council's special Post-Secondary Relationships initiative will enhance relationships post-secondary and area Edmonton with educational institutions. The City will work to help institutions attract new professors and strategize key initiatives. Partnerships will be furthered in the areas of leadership, study of children, youth and families and reducing the gap between research and practice. Nationally, elementary and secondary school enrolments declined by 1.6% between fiscal years 1996-97 and 2004-05. However, total spending on public elementary and secondary schools has increased by 11.3% in 2004 constant dollars. In Alberta enrolment has increased by 0.8% during this period while expenditures on elementary and secondary education have increased by 32.9%. Alberta spending per pupil has grown by 31.9% during this same period. A total of 31,335 secondary students graduated from Alberta schools in 2002-03, up 17.8% from 1997-98. Alberta had the lowest graduation rate among provinces with only two-thirds of youth graduating from high school in 2002-03. On a brighter note, the graduation rate in Alberta is improving while in many of the other provinces it is deteriorating.
Alberta High School Graduation Rate 75%s
6312% 65% 70%
65.7%
65.9%
The February 22, 2006 Alberta Speech from the Throne indicated that the Alberta government will hold a series of roundtables with youth from across the province to help understand better why students leave school early. A high school completion symposium, which will include teens, parents, business leaders and educators, will help develop a provincial strategy to increase high school completion rates. Poverty While the economy has significantly improved during the first half of the decade, there are many who have not benefited. Government and other society efforts need to be further directed at reducing poverty rather than just maintaining people in it. The improved economy in Canada and especially in Alberta has reduced the number and percentage of Edmontonians (CMA) living with low-incomes since the mid-1990s. In 1996, 17.2% of the population had incomes below the Statistics Canada low-income cut off. In 2001, this had been reduced to 12.1%. In the city of Edmonton, poverty or lowincome is more extensive than it is in the region. The 2002 Edmonton city rate was 20%. On February 7, 2005 Alberta's Premier, Ralph Klein announced what was confirmed in the March 2, 2005 Speech from the Throne: that the 2005-06 provincial budget would include an increase in Alberta's minimum wage. The increase from $5.90 to $7.00, an increase of 18.6%, took effect September 1, 2005. The provincial government
estimates about 11,000 Albertans earn minimum wage.
66.5%
60% 55%
1997/98
2000101
2001102
2002/03
Source:Statisll CanadaDally
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 34
I
SEdmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 SThe
SoSocial Incidence of Low Income Edmonton, 2001 .25% 20.0%
20%
16.2%
162%
s%
1
14.9%
,social
3.%
o10% 5% 0%
Canada
Al ra
Edmonton
Edmonton
Calgary
that the social assistance benefits in Alberta are
among the lowest in Canada.
CMA
SSource:
United Nations Committee on Economic, and Cultural Rights has stated that Welfare benefits in most Canadian provinces have dropped in value in the past 10 years and often amount to less than half of basic living costs. In Alberta, people with the lowest incomes, many receiving the assistance, Alberta Works, have been losing income ground for a number of years. A September 2006 study released by the National Council of Welfare, a Federal Government agency, indicated
CCSO, 2004 Urban Poverty Project, Welfare Income as Percent of "LICO" Alberta witha Disability Enloptyable --- Person --- Single
* * 0
Effective March 1, 2006 Alberta will have the sixth highest minimum wage rate of all the provinces (prior to 2005 Alberta had the lowest minimum wage) at $7.00 per hour, an increase from $5.90 per hour for adults. It is estimated that only 7% of employed Albertans earn the minimum wage. While this is a significant increase in the minimum wage, a single parent with one child would have to
work 72.45 hours per week to meet the threshold of 0
the low income cut off (pre-tax LICO) and longer be considered poor. This is an improvement from before the increase when it took 80.65 hours per week to meet the LICO income threshold.
-LenFrent, -60%
oce
--
Coule Tmawoare
50% -
.
40 30%
. -
--
-
_- "
_- -
_- -
20%
10% 1996 1997
1998 1999 2000 Source:
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
of Welfare tional Council
The table shows four selected types of households, all receiving benefits from Alberta Works, are losing ground when compared to the Statistics Canada Low Income Cut-off and are worse off financially than they were in 1996 when welfare
roles were cut and benefits reduced. For example, a single employable person with Alberta Works benefits was receiving 29% of the LICO in 1996.
Hourly Minimum Wage by Province, * February, 2006 $9 $8
.
$7.6
S$7s
5 .
0 *oo.
$6 U,
6
S I $
SI Labourweb shte mweb alte;Ontario Labourand Imigration Manitoba Source:
A Federation of Canadian Municipalities report on
the "Income Gap," indicated that the income is growing growing between between the the 10% 10% income is with the highest incomes and the 10% with incomes. the lowest
distance in of of families families of families
In 2004, the same single employable person was only receiving 24% of the LICO low-income o8.00 threshold. Adequate, appropriate and affordable shelter is very important in Edmonton's climate. Yet, in 2001, 40,615 renter households (37.7% of renter households) spent more than 30% of their gross
income on shelter (CMHC standard for affordable shelter costs). As well, 2,192 Edmontonians did not in 2004. Edmonton have a permanent residence initiative on affordable
City Council's special Constes i housing, Cornerstones:
on
n Edmonton's
afor
Plan
for
o dotnsPa onrtnswill increase huig the supply of Affordable Housing, affordable housing units by 2,500 in five years. The newly elected federal government has indicated a $200 million (nationally) tax credit for
*
0
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 35
0
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
housing for provinces and low incoirne municipalities. The lack of commitment to capital funding, on the part of the new government, could impact the success of Council's affordable housing initiative. The February 22, 2006 Alberta Speech from the Throne stated the provincial government will increase financial assistance through Alberta Works (formerly Supports for Independence) to people who cannot work, either due to multiple barriers or medical conditions that keep them from finding or keeping employment. Child Care Most children now receive some form of preschool child care. Quality of that care can have a significant impact on children's development and later life. In 2000-01, 53% of Canadian children ages six months to five years of age were in non-parental child care. This had increased from 42% in 1994-5. 25% were enrolled in daycare, up from 20% ten While Alberta had the lowest years earlier. provincial rate of child care among the provinces, 43% of children between six months and five years were enrolled in child care in 2003. Children from single-parent families were more likely to be enrolled in child care than children from two-parent families. Children in households with incomes below LICO were less likely to be enrolled in child care than children from higher income (equal to or above LICO), 37.3% and 57.1%, respectively, Urban children are more likely to be enrolled in
child care than are their rural counterparts. While the above information relates to children under age six, Alberta municipalities may provide support or subsidy to children between the ages of six and twelve who are in low-income families. Approximately 2,100 Edmonton children in lowincome families receive a monthly municipal subsidy for out of school care. The City's services to the children of Edmonton are based on the international UNICEF-supported "child friendly" secretariat key indicators.
Edmonton City Council's Special Initiative on a Child Friendly City includes: * Improving advocacy for children internally and externally with partners * Understanding and benchmarking City services for children * Determining barriers to services and potential funding from other orders of government * Developing pilot projects * Developing a corporate children's services framework.
In the October 5, 2004 Speech from the Throne, the previous federal government proposed building a national child care program based on four key principles: quality, universality, accessibility, and development.
0
The proposed program would help provinces provide a child care program for children up to age six. The federal government indicated a commitment of $5 billion over a five year period. Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador signed agreements-inprinciple with the federal government on child care funding. On July 7, 2005, the governments of Canada and Alberta signed an agreement-in-principle, Moving Forward on Early Learning and Child Care. The agreement paved the way for $70.4 million in new money to flow to Alberta to fund child care in 2005, approximately $65.7 million in 2006-07,
0
0
$116,8 million in 2007-08; $117.3 million in 200809 and $117.9 million in 2009-10. 09 and $117.9 million in 2009-10.
Special considerations for the Alberta-Canada agreement included: * Early learning and child care programs and services include private and public providers, for children under age six * Services will meet standards established and monitored by Alberta * Investment can include capital and operating funding, fee subsidies, wage enhancements, training, professional
October by:2006 City Forecast Committee, Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
0
Page 36 Page 36
0
0Pr
0 0
I
development and support, quality assurance and parent information and referral.
0~20
S * * *
005
Moe
__
-or,
The Government of Alberta has expanded its role in assessing child care centres to include out-of-school care centres. The City of Edmonton has reached an agreement with Region 6 Child and Family Services Authority for the City to take primary responsibility for assessing the quality of approved out-of-school care centres in Edmonton and ensuring they meet the City's standards. The two orders of government, provincial and municipal,
this isa municipal priority.
will continue to monitor the situation in the
Combined, the cities of Edmonton, Calgary and Red Deer invest approximately $10 million per year on out-of-school care for school age children (age 6-12). *Total
* *
*
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
0
K2004
Federal investment in pre-school child care in Alberta would have freed up of dollars currently invested by Alberta in the child care program. The new federal government elected on January 23 ' 2006 indicated in its election platform the reallocation of child care monies to permit choice in child care through an allowance scheme. Families with children under age six are to receive $100 per month per child for child care. This is significantly less than the amount needed by lowincome earners to provide for adequate child care for their young children. It is unclear how the new child care benefit will impact the Alberta child care program. In Alberta the provincial government assumed responsibility for subsidies for child care for lowincome families with children of pre-school age. Municipalities continue to provide subsidies for out-of-school care for school age children where
Alberta cities are attempting to influence the Government of Alberta to increase funding for school age child care. Federal National Child Care program dollars which were to flow to Alberta for pre-school age children, were anticipated to free-up provincial dollars already invested. The likelihood of significantly increased provincial funding for municipal care of school age children is reduced. --
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
Number
children
pcildren month
2081
2078
$5.60
$6.40
$203.2 $203.2
$218.1 $218.1
2109
2198
$6.6
$6.3
2078
2100
$6.20
$6.20
Annual
Financial Allocation for Subsidies $millions Average
7
0
monthly
subsid per child $
0
8
$232 $232
$230 $230
$232. $232.
.00
.32
29
$220.00
Edmonton region.
Culture Culture and the arts are vital integral parts of society. Support for the arts, for all Edmontonians regardless of income or background, could offer creative ways to bring diverse elements of our society together. The arts and culture are vital, creative part of the community and play a major role in a high quality of life. government spending (nationally) on culture increased over time and now totals over $7 billion per year. Per capita government spending on culture in Alberta was $160 in 2002-03 (composed of $51 federal, $56 provincial and $53 municipal). This was the lowest total per capita spending of the provinces primarily because of lower provincial spending. Despite this, the arts sector in Alberta added over $150 million to the GPP (Gross Provincial Product) and employed more than 3,500 Albertans full-time.
Page 37
0
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
0
Edmonton City Council's special initiative on Edmonton Arts projects an enhanced profile for the arts community through a partnership with the City of Edmonton. City Council will support the Edmonton Arts Council and help develop an overall vision for the arts community through a Cultural Plan. The arts will be better represented in Edmonton's promotional materials and efforts. An "arts zone" will be considered for the 118 Avenue area as part of neighbourhood revitalization. The City will also support cultural and arts festivals, develop new facilities in high priority areas and plan for maintenance and sustainability of major downtown arts facilities. As well, the City will continue to make City property available for arts venues and events. City of Edmonton spending on culture has increased steadily over the past five years to current totals over $42 million. Between 2001 and 2006, Edmonton's municipal expenditures on culture increased by over 40 percent.
and social issues especially in light of the increased pressures on the health and social support systems. recently Development Community Alberta published the results of the 2004 Alberta Recreation Survey. 3,217 Alberta households completed the survey, 28.2% of them in Edmonton. In terms of exercise-oriented recreation, Edmontonians and Albertans as a whole varied little in their preferences. As well, there were only small differences in Edmontonians and all Albertans with regard to creative/cultural activities. The largest difference was in visiting museums or art galleries. Social passive activities had the largest differences especially with regard to picnicking in the countryside.
0
Council's special initiative on Sports, Recreation Opportunities and Capital Health Partnership supports the Active Edmonton program and implementation of plans for improved facilities, trails and parks to encourage Edmontonians to be active, stay fit and healthy, and help keep Edmonton an attractive City.
Investment in Culture* City of Edmonton ($000's) $45,000
s542,433 $40,000
$
$39,750
3
$30,000 8759 $32,1
$35,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000
$10,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: City of Edmonton os nol include capital expenditures
Recreation and Leisure The need for health-giving and fulfilling leisure activities is more and more important as our population becomes increasingly obese. Leisure activities and opportunities to enjoy nature play an important preventive role in relation to health 0 Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 38
0
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 Safety
*
**
SPripan
*
Activity Walking for Pleasure Bicycling Swimming (pools) Golf Aerobics/Fitness/Aquasize/Yoga Weight Training Jogging/Running
Edmonton 93.4% 56.9% 55.9%
Alberta 93.0% 56.0% 54.1%
38.6% 45.9%
44.9% 43.9%
35.2% 36.1% 31.5%
31.5%
36.1% 35.6% 32.6% 32.6%
33.1%
29.6%
18.6%
20.9% 1
~Swimming SSwimming pond(lakes, rivers, Ice Skating
Ice Skating In-line skating
1
*
*
S"takeover." -,_until
i
i
Activit
Edmonton Alberta
Attending a fair or festival Doing a craft or hobby Attending a sports event as spectator Visiting a museum, art 1gallery Attending live theatre i-Emergency
0 1
*
1
. * a. Activity Gardening Playing video, 1 0computer or electronic games Attending educational -courses Picnicking (within a *
1 *
64.1%
56.7%
62.5%
63.8%
58.8%
60.0%
54.4%
50.9%
53.5%
51.9%
- **lIn Edmonton Alberta 72.1% 71.6% 53.0% 51.3%
.
45.8%
43.3%
38.8%
38.0%
28.3%
37.3%
city) Picnicking (in the countryside)
The provincial government's stated intention to assume responsibility for ground ambulance service across Alberta, including in Edmonton, has been postponed. However, no new target date for transfer has been set. Funding for this service was to be channeled through the regional health authorities, and through the Capital Health Authority for the Edmonton region. The transfer would have enabled the City of Edmonton to utilize the $25 million savings realized in other priority areas. The province stated that the costs were more than anticipated. Ambulance transfer will not happen in 2005 but may occur later in the forecast period. The provincial government provided grants to municipalities in lieu of the ambulance Grants are anticipated to continue a final disposition of ground ambulance service in Alberta is determined In Edmonton, seniors are three times as likely to use emergency medical services as the general population. People 85 years and older use ambulances seven times more often than the general population. Large increases in the senior population will likely occur in the older, central areas of the city. A high proportion of this population will be women living alone. The increasing number of seniors along with the increasing sprawl of the city could place additional pressures on emergency services such as Medical Services. 2004, there were 7,620 responses to fire alarms, structural fires and non-structural fires. This is a three% increase over the previous year when there were 7,392 responses. The number of fires in the City of Edmonton has varied little over the past few years. 1635 structural fires occurred in 2003 and 1523 in 2004. The leading causes of residential fires are relatively stable. The five most common causes of residential fires, when there were investigations as to cause, are listed in the table.
0epared
by: City Forecast Committee,October 2006
Page 39
*Prepared
by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 39
S Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011 awelfare
n
number
a
62
g55
number
authorities have a team jointly working to address issues of child abuse.
@verheatedi i53
lChild
S kers MaterialsI
Abuse Reports to Edmonton Police Service
1
Pleddclose
to
293
37
45
ace
300
246
240
q200
50, 300 1998
Crime, overall, has decreased over the past year.
Generally speaking Edmonton, despite some high profile violent crimes, is an increasingly safer city. Violent crime in Edmonton steadily decreased over the past number of years. In 1998, there were 7,657 violent crimes in the Edmonton. By 2005, despite a larger population, there were only 6,718. This decreased from 12.1/1,000 population in 1998 to 9.43/1,000 in 2005, and the downward trend is continuing,
1999
Source:Edmont
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Policevc
Charges in relation to crimes committed by young people have also dramatically decreased over the period 1998 to 2005. In 1998, youths aged 12 to 17 were charged with 7,111 crimes. By 2005, this decreased to 5,151, down 28% during the period. Youth violent crime charges decreased by 10.5% for 2005 over 2004. Property crime, on the other hand, increased in Edmonton over the same period of time, from
Violent Crime Rates per 1,000 Population Edmonton 4
13- 1
2.1
0.
11.5
10.8
.
12"
whether the tide will continue for 2006 and beyond.
. 9
10
40,439 incidents in 1998 to 54,520 incidents in 2005, up 35%. However, 2005 property crime is down 1.6% over 2004. It is too early to determine
9
8" 7.
Property Crimes
6 5 4 32 _
2 1998
.
1
1999 2000 2001
Edmonton
2002 2003 2004 2005
60,000 50,000 000 40,
PoliceService Source:Edmonton
54520
60,02,76300
0,
46,70 40,439 39.915
0
4 ,045
30,000
Child
abuse
reports
have
decreased
dramatically (although not child welfare cases). In 1998 there were 441 child abuse cases
referred to Edmonton Police Service. By 2005, the number of incidents had declined by over
20.000
10,000
0-
10
1
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
200
Source:Edmonton PoliceService
49% to only 227. The rate declined from 69/100,000 population in 1998 to 32/100,000 in 2005. Edmonton Police Service and child
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 40
0 0
I * * 0
* *
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
Canadian research reveals that seven% of people in current or previous marital, common-law relationships experienced violence in their relationship. In Alberta in 2004, seven% of men and 10% of women (the highest reported percent of the provinces) experienced family violence in the past five years. Immigrant women are particularly vulnerable to domestic violence. The City of Edmonton's Spousal Violence Intervention Teams, consisting of police and social workers jointly addressing family violence, handled 4,401 cases in Another special team, consisting of 2004. Community Services, Police Service and Catholic Social Services, works with victims of elder abuse. The February 22, 2006 Alberta Speech from the Throne indicated the provincial government will strengthen legislation to protect people from family violence by broadening the definition of family violence to include stalking, widening the scope of who is protected and clarifying the conditions for The granting emergency protection orders.
province will also launch a multi-disciplinary team of police officers, legal advisors and other experts who will respond quickly and effectively to highrisk family violence and stalking cases. The team will assess threats and reduce risks with the goal of preventing serious injury and death, Disputes among neighbours reported to police, an indicator of social cohesion, are down over this period. There were 760 reports in 1998 with reports decreasing almost every year to 635 in 2005. population was slightly more stable in *Edmonton's 2001 than 1996. In 2001, approximately 19.3% of * Edmontonians had a different address than the previous year in contrast to 20.4% in 1996. In 2001 50.4% of Edmontonians lived at a different address * than they had five years previously compared to 51.0% in 1996.
Community Revitalization *
S
Around 60.3% of Edmontonians (CMA) have a strong sense of belonging to their local community. This percent is slightly lower than the provincial or national percent.
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
I
Between 2001 and 2005, of the 250 residential neighbourhoods listed, 132 neighbourhoods lost population (a population loss totalling 25,410). 118 Edmonton neighbourhoods gained population (totalling 80,064 people) during this period through in-migration, natural increase, movement from and new household other neighbourhoods formation. Neighbourhoods in need of revitalization are often characterized by higher than average crime rates, rates of low income, child welfare cases, use of hospital emergency room services and of other indicators of community well-being. Edmonton City Council's special initiative on Neighbourhood Revitalization includes renewal of physical infrastructure, community engagement and alternative mobility modes, and targets social, recreational, economic and environmental concerns using a community building model. Existing city resources will be targeted and brought to bear to
support revitalization of these neighbourhoods The City's neighbourhood when needed. revitalization effort is a community-building process directed by the community and supported by Community Services Department, to identify strengths, capacities, issues and challenges of a particular area, neighbourhood or group of and businesses, People, neighbourhoods. organizations in the area determine their own goals and action plans to build on strengths and improve quality of life.
Drug Use Prevention Use of illicit drugs is a problem in many of Canada's cities. A 1997 survey of 200 senior elected municipal officials, police representatives, First Nations Tribal Council members and representatives of the federal-provincial-territorial working group on crime prevention, perceived drug offences to be the most serious crime and disorder problem in their communities. The Federation of Canadian Municipalities initiated a series of pilot projects across Canada to look at developing municipal drug strategies.
Page 41
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
[
In Edmonton, charges by police for violations of the federal Controlled Substance Act have been relatively stable over recent years. The range in number of offences varied slightly from a high of 1,695 in 2002 to a low of 1,478 in 2001. In 2005, drug offences dropped to 1,492, a six% when compared to the corresponding period in the previous year. Nevertheless, drugs are seen by many in our community as potentially affecting a significant group of Edmontonians, especially youth, and being a cause of related crime.
Violations of Federal Controlled Substance Act
Schools, Edmonton Catholic Schools, and Edmonton Police Service). Special elements of this strategy include a concerted effort to educate citizens about the problem and enlist them in identifying marijuana grow-ops. The provincial government has also made it more difficult for local manufacturers to obtain the main ingredient in production of crystal methamphetamine. This latter initiative should help reduce the use of this illicit drug which is often attractive to younger people. The February 22, 2006 Alberta Speech from the Throne indicated that Alberta will introduce legislation, the first in Canada, to specifically define a drug-endangered child and make it clear that such a child is the victim of abuse.
0
0
Edmonton 2,200
2I,000 1,800 1,600 1,400
1,656
1,692
1,693
1636
1579
1,478
1,200 1,000 800 600
400 200
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
PoliceSence Source:Edmonton
In November 2003, then Mayor Bill Smith met with from a number of local representatives organizations involved in prevention, treatment and enforcement aspects of illicit drugs. These early workshops were held with expert representatives from provincial, municipal, school board, health authority and voluntary organizations to identify the extent of illicit drugs use in Edmonton, and the impacts of drug abuse. Workshop participants
0 0
agreed that greater collaboration could be achieved between their respective organizations and that Edmonton needed a coordinated community drug strategy targeting young people up to 24 years of age with emphasis on alcohol and illicit drugs. The strategy was completed in fall of 2005. Edmonton City Council, as part of its special initiative, the Mayor's Drug Strategy, will participate in developing a comprehensive and coordinated drug strategy implementation plan with other community partners (AADAC, Health Canada, Alberta Learning, Edmonton Public
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Page 42
0
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
APPENDIX I - Edmonton Employment by Industry Employment by Industry - Edmonton C.M.A. (thousand) Industry
1995
1994
1993
1992
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
538
554
546 122
431
424
432
445
445
469
477
484
491
508
523
83
81
84
94
91
97
101
111
101
108
121
121
126
3
4
3
9
6
8
8
7
5
2
3
5
5
3
Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil & Gas
8
7
9
11
12
14
15
10
10
12
11
13
12
15
Utilities
6
6
5
4
5
4
3
3
5
4
5
5
6
6
Construction
29
27
26
28
32
27
31
36
34
42
47
48
51
51
Manufacturing
38
37
41
42
37
45
44
55
47
48
55
50
52
47
351
353
372
376
374
390
400
402
417
428
424
Total Goods-Producing Sector Agriculture
348
344
348
Trade
74
74
76
76
74
77
75
76
85
84
81
87
91
96
Transportation and Warehousing
22
22
22
23
25
27
25
25
30
30
28
30
30
30
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing
30
28
27
27
24
27
30
29
29
31
31
27
31
31
29
29
33
33
36
37
35
36
38
Services-Producing Sector
20
22
26
22
26
13
13
11
15
15
16
17
16
16
13
18
24
20
19
Educational Services
37
36
31
34
32
33
31
37
35
43
41
39
41
42
Health Care and Social Assistance
46
44
50
47
51
48
55
53
52
53
55
55
61
56
21
28
23
21
21
22
22
24
24
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Business; building and other support services
Information, Culture and Recreation
19
20
23
25
23
Accommodation and Food Services
27
28
26
29
30
32
31
30
35
35
36
37
39
34
Other Services Public Administration
23 37
25 33
22 33
26 28
25 29
31 31
28 28
26 27
28 26
25 29
25 29
28 33
24 31
26 29
Prepared by the Corporate Business Planning Department, October 2006 Source: Statistics Canada
Ino
Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October2006
fitverPLANNING AND r
DEVELOPMENT
Page 44
[
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
APPENDIX H - Edmonton Gross Domestic Product by Industry Real Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices by Industry, Edmonton C.M.A.() Millions of Chained (1997) Dollars 1999
Industry
(2)(3)
2001
2000
2002
1,903 1,982 2,380 2,515 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil & Gas 772 848 1,178 930 Utilities 3,220 3,367 2,538 2,395 Construction 4,434 4,203 4,465 4,313 Manufacturing 3,745 3,844 3,082 3,556 Total Trade, Transportation and Warehousing Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Renting & Leasing and 8,006 7,318 6,215 6,810 management of companies and Enterprises 2,614 2,205 2,286 2,063 Professional; scientific and technical services 1,814 1,788 1,524 1,563 Educational Services 1,930 1,687 1,832 1,674 Health Care & Social Assistance 1,433 1,542 1,413 1,436 Information; culture and recreation 934 913 955 779 Accommodation & Food Service 2,266 2,276 1,995 2,053 Public Administration 900 943 928 829 Other Services 32,752 34,389 31,576 29,878 GDP at Basic Prices 1,444 1,326 1,376 1,255 Indirect Taxes Less Subsidies 35,833 32,902 34,127 31,133 GDP at Market Prices 3.7% 5.0% -0.2% 5.7% Edmonton Growth Rate 2.5% 1.4% 6.1% 1.7% Rate (%) Alberta Growth Prepared by the City of Edmonton Corporate Business Planning Department, October 2006 Source: Statistics Canada Notes: (1) GDP at Market Prices is obtained by adding Indirect Taxes Less Subsidies to GDP at Basic Prices. (2) Preliminary Estimates - Subject to Revision (3) GDP by industry estimates based on Statistics Canada information, which is only available to 1998 under the North American Industry Classification (NAICS)
2003
0 9
0 0 *0 1
2005
2,600 947 3,418 4,085 4,185
2,354 1,120 3,486 4,663 4,469
2,436 1,139 4,042 5,054 4,908
7,632 2,824 1,721 1,922 1,475 913 2,464 1,066 35,253 1,481 36,733 2.5% 3.1%
7,770 2,712 1,848 2,127 1,728 973 2,378 963 36,592 1,537 38,129 3.8% 4.3%
7,599 2,707 1,769 1,872 1,805 992 2,417 1,046 37,786 1,587 39,373 3.3% 4.5%
Page 45
Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2006
0 0 0o
2004
0
0
0
0 *0
0
@ 00
e
17
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
Appendix III Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area city
I
Town
. "Redw
St*
J
Primary Highway
-
A
..l
Secondary Highway
Accord 2
Riayn
MorinvileBrdri
A- .
County Boundary
Village
.ter
eon
I
f
SUrban Service Area Boundary
boRed
.
.
~~~~t
I
F.o
sealaitchwan t~a
2u
-Alb-er.t
,Asfrati
thconaCounty
,j
dm o ---
Lw
- ._-
-PrkaPado
-o-nt:r . ,
- --
43-
P:acalme
-: "'-.i
o"
Prepred Cmmitee,
ctobrB20aumaon4 y: "' Cty Frecat P
dCounth
I
Ledue County i
i" _: . 2
.
.
. .
. .
.. .....Pag..
4
I
Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2006 - 2011
MEMBERS OF CITY FORECAST COMMITTEE
Jong Huang (Chairperson) Chief Economist Planning and Development Department
Albert Kwan Drainage Design Engineer Asset Management & Public Works Department
Paul Tsounis Senior Economist Corporate Business Planning Department
Stan Dilworth City Assessor Planning and Development Department
Dana Oikawa Forecasting & Variance Manager EPCOR Distributions Inc.
Linda Chan Manager, Regulatory and Capital Assets EPCOR Water Services
Terry Dew Director, Knowledge Management Edmonton Economic Development Corporation
Steven Friedenthal Strategic Planning Officer Community Services Department
Alan Brownlee Director, Evaluation & Monitoring Transportation Department
Angela Muhlenfeld Analyst Edmonton Police Services
Robert Higgins Planner II Planning & Development Department
Don Pilling Fire Protection Engineer Community Services Department
Nila Chowdhury Budget Consultant Corporate Business Planning Department
Christina Ionescu Economist Corporate Services Department
Gord Dodd
Brett Wiles
Director, Fleet Support
Forecasting &Variance Specialist
Asset Management and Public Works Department
EPCOR Distributions Inc.
For more economic information, please contact: Jong Huang
(780) 496-6068
jong.huang@(edmonton.ca
Paul Tsounis
(780) 496-6070
paul.tsounis@edmonton.ca
For more social information, please contact: Steven Friedenthal
(780) 496-4782
Prepared by:. City Forecast Committee, October 2006
Steve.Friedenthal@(edmonton.ca