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EDMONTON SOCIO-ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2003 -2008

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee

October 2003

Copyright ÂŠ2003 by the City of Edmonton Planningand Development Departinent c/o: 3 "d Floor, City Hall Sir Winsto n Churchill Square Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T5J 2R7 The City of Edmonton provides this information in goodfaith but it gives no wart'anty nor accepts liabilityfrom any itcorrect, incomplete or misleading infornation, or its usefir any purpose.

Edmfonton Socio-Economi Outlook, 2003 - 2008

Jong Huang (Chairperson) Chief Economist Planning and Development Department

K.L. Siu Director of Infrastructure Planning Asset Management & Public Works Department

Paul Tsounis Senior Economist Planning and Development Department

Stan Dilworth Director, Audit, Regulatory and Standards Planning and Development Department

Dana Oikawa Forecast Manager EPCOR Power Generation

Linda Chan Manager, Capital-Revenues and Rates EPCORWater Services

Terry Dew Director of Knowledge Management Economic DevelopmentEdmonton

Rod Keith Strategic Planning Officer Community Services Department

Alan Brownlee Director, Evaluation & Monitoring Transportation and Streets Department

Staff Sgt. Dean Albrecht Planning & Evaluation Services Section Edmonton Police Services

Audra Jones Director, Community Transportation Planning Transportation and Streets Department

Don Pilling Fire Protection Engineer Emergency Response Department

Nila Chowdhury Budget Consultant Corporate Services Department

Christina Ionescu Economist Corporate Services Department

Robert Higgins Planner II Planning & Development Department For more economic information, please contact: Jong Huang

(780) 496-6068

jong.huaing@edmonton.ca

Paul Tsounis

(780) 496-6070

paul.tsounis@edmonton.ca

For more social information, please contact: Rod Keith

(780) 496-4782

Preparedby: City ForecastConunittee, October 2003

rod.keith@edmonton.ca

tEdmoiton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 - 2008

TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................... 1

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ......................................1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RISKS .................... 15 Upside Risks to the Outlook............................ 15 2 SOCIAL OUTLOOK. .............................................. Downside Risks to the Outlook.......................15 IMPLICATIONS OF THE OUTLOOK..............4

* 0

* *

0 S 0

0 0 0

Market...............5 Rental Housing Market............................... 14.

PART 2: SOCIAL OUTLOOK..........................19 4 BUSINESS SECTOR ............................................... OVERVIEW.......................................................19 4 GOVERNMENT AND THE PUBLIC SECTOR ............. 20 KEY SOCIAL ISSUES ........................... FAMILIES AND INDIVIDUALS.................................4 INTRODUCTION ................................................. 5 Social Implications of Demographic Change.20 22 ............................. Families............... 0 Incomes...............................23 and Employment 5 PART 1: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ...................... 23 Poverty .................................... UNITED STATES................................................5 Health..............................................................24 C AN A D A ....................................... ......................... 5 Social Services................................................25 Prime Lending Rate..........................................6 Housing and Homelessness.............................26 *ExchangeRate.............................. ........... 6 Crime............................................................... 26 ALBERTA...........................................................7 Recreation and Leisure ......................... 26 2002....... .............. ..............................7 Voluinteerism ................................................... 28 Growth will continue in 2003........................... 7 Gaming............................. ........................ 28 7 Oil and G as............ ........................................... APPENDIX I - Edmonton Employmerit by Net Migration........................................... 8 EDM ONTON .............. try,.................... .............................. 29 29.Y. tr..... ........................ EDMONTON..........................9Id 9 Economic growth............................. ............... APPENDIX II -,Edmonton Gross Domestic Demographicchanges................................. 10 30 .......................... Product by Industry, ....... 1 E".. P dn 1. Employment .............................................. 12 Unemployment Rate........................................ APPENDIX I -EdmontonCensus 12 Inflation........................................................... 31 ......... 13op.......... ..................... BuildingPermits....... ......... ... 13 Non-Residential Construction Price............

Ed onton Socio-Economic Outlook 2003 -2008 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

in 2002 remained alinost constant, starting the year at 6.85% before settling down to 6.7% by year's end. Rates increased to 6.85% in March 2003, before falling: to 6.3% in September. We expect before 'faling to 6.3% in September. We expect interest rates to increase gradually :over the forecast period as growth picks up for both Canadian and US. economies.

This report is prepared primarily for use as a reference for the preparation of the City of Edmonton's corporate and departmental business plans and budgets, the City's Capital Priorities Plan, and the City's Long Range Financial Plan.

The economic outlook outlined in this report does not take into consideration the possible impacts of the Kyoto protocol.

The Canadian/U.S. exchange rate strengthened dramatically through most of 2003, rising from US$0.630 at the beginning of the year to its current rate of around US$0.760. By comparison, the Canadian dollar averaged US$0.636 in 2002. We expect the dollar to average US$0.720 in 2003, US$0.740 in 2004, and average US$0.70 for the

External Factors Fators

remainder of the forecast period.

Economic Outlook.

the war Tensions in the Middle East, including between the United States and Iraq, have contributed to volatility in world energy markets and have had an impact on global economic performnance. The only expected is world econiomy 2% iS.only expected to to grow grow around around 2%Ma20 world economy in 2003, up slightly from 1.8% in 2002, due to two countries recessions in five - industrialized Gerany Swizerandand (Neterlnds Noway (Netherlands, Germany, Norway, Switzerland and Mexico). Global conditions are expected to pick. up in the latter part of 2003 and for most of 2004 as the U.S. economy begins to strengthen. The U:S..

buoyant at 2% in 2003: The

economy is. expected to rebound to 3.5% in 2004 before falling to an average of 2.8% between 2005 and"2007, as higher interest rates and a strong dollar soften activity .inthe housing market and restrain exports. Growth is expectedto pick up Slightly by exports. Growth, is expected 'to pick up slightly by 2008, as interest rates moderate, giving a boost to consumerspending..

down from 2.4% in 2002, and is expected to fiscal and and due to aggressive. rebound to 4% rebound in in 2004to4% aggressivefiscal monetary policy initiatives. Growth will average 3% between 2005 and 2008, as higher interest rates ekediu~c.o.n g . sad .cltsunr danp h dampe :ekpendie onsumer on goods and services. Continued tensions in the Middle East, along with continued unrest in Iraq, could keep energy prices high, increase inflation rates, and hamper U.S. and world economic growth in the forecast period.

Alberta

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 2003

Due to the SARS outbreak and the single case of BSE (Mad .Cow Disease) reported in Alberta on May 20, economic growth retracted by 0.3% at t cnrigowhetcedb0.% annualized rates in the second quarter of 2003. The sharp appreciation of the dollar and the recent electricity blackout in Ontario is also expected to blackout in Ontario is also expected to electricity contribute to softer growth for the third quarter. Despite these setbacks, high energy prices and Despite these setbacks, high energy prices and strong consumer consumer spending are expected expected to to keep strong .keep the the Canadian economy buoyant at 2% in 2003. The

nom

s 2.3% in 2003, slightly economy is expected to 'grow S3,

The prime-lending interest rate increased from 3.75% at the beginning of 2002 to 4.5% by year's end, due to rekindled inflation expectations. The rate increased a further 0.5 percentage points to 5% in April 2003, before retracting to 4.75% in June and to 4.5% in September. Five-year mortgage rates

Canada Canada

The Alberta economy grew at an. estimated 1..7% in 2002, lower than the 2.3% in 2001. Despite the reported single case of Mad Cow Disease in May, economic growth is forecast to increase to 2.5% in 2003 fueled primarily by high energy prices and strong investment in the conventional oil and gas markets. Economic growth is expected to reach 4% in 2004 as the combination of high energy prices and a stronger U.S. economy increase investment in energy-related projects and exports of goods and Page 1

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 - 2008

services. Growth is expected to average 3.4% between 2005 and 2007, as higher interest rates and a strong Canadian dollar soften both the housing and export markets. Growth will rebound by 2008 as a new wave of energy-related investment projects come underway in northern Alberta.

the remainder of the forecast period. Employment is expected to increase 2.7% in 2003 with the creation of 13,800 new jobs. A total of 57,100 new jobs will be created between 2003 and 2008.

Edmonton

The housing market had a banner year in 2002, with total housing starts in the City of Edmonton reaching 8,822, the highest level in twenty years. The Edmonton CMA followed suit," with 12,582 starts. It is expected that the number of housing starts will moderate this year to 12,110 in the Edmonton CMA and 8,535 for the City. Total housing starts will fall over the forecast period, averaging 9,600 for the Edmonton CMA and 6,600 for the city, due primarily to higher interest rates brought on by increased Canadian and U.S. economic growth. As a result of the strong housing market, the value

Edmonton's regional economic growth rate is estimated to have grown 2.5% in 2002. With higher energy prices and continued investment in energy related projects in northern Alberta, the Edmonton regional economy is forecast to grow 3.1% in 2003, 3.7% in 2004 and average 3.2% between 2005 and from increased spin-offs 2007. Economic investment in energy related projects in northern Alberta will increase growth in 2008. Demographic Changes The total population of the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Areas, (CMA) in 2002 is estimated to be 966,800, and is expected to exceed 1 million people by early 2005. By 2008, it is estimated that the total will be just over 1 million, an increase of 70,100 people between.2003 and 2008. The City of Edmonton is expected to grow by 44,810 people over the same period, with the total population expected to reach 742,000 by 2008. Net migration is expected to remnain strong for the Edmonton CMA, ranging between 8,500 and 9,500 migrants , annually for the forecast period. Inflation The Edmonton CMA inflation rate, as measured by the consumer price index (CP), increased to 2.9% in 2002 from 2.2% in 2001, fueled primarily by higher gasoline and natural gas prices. Continued strength in energy prices and strong local economic fundamentals will increase the inflation rate to 5.3% in 2003, then gradually declining to 3.5% in 2004 and 2.5% by 2008. Labour Market Labour Market . The unemployment rate in the Edmonton CMA rose to 5.1% in 2002 from 4.9% in 2001, and is expected to fall slightly to.5%.in 2003, and average 4.9% for Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October2003

Construction Sector

of building permits for the City reached over $1.1 billion dollars in 2002, a 26% increase from 2001. Building permits are expected to fall in 2003, ranging in value between $915 to $1,076 million, and falling slightly in the forecast period, ranging between $885 to $1,000 million by 2008. Office space Vacancy rates are estimated to reach 12% in 2003 before falling slightly to 11.5% in 2004 and average 10% for the remainder of the forecast period as continued economic growth will result in higher net office absorption rates. Last year's tight apartment vacanicy rates in the Edmonton CMA are expected to increase to 3.5% in 2003 and average 3% over the forecast period.

Social Outlook Highlights froin the Canadian federal 2003 budget include: * $34.8 billion over five years for health care. * Funding for childcare and early .learning programs, particularly for low-income and single-parent families. * More eligible expenses for medical expense tax More eligible expenses for medical expense tax credits.

Page 2

;'-Edn1 ton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 - 2008 *

* *

Additional money for affordable housing, renovation programs aimed at extending the life of existing affordable housing, and for programs to alleviate homelessness. $1 billion for municipal infrastructure. Programs for urban Aboriginals, plus enhanced training and employinent opportunities.

Highlights from the Alberta Provincial Speech from the Throne include: * Alberta's Promise - a co-ordinated. approach. involving many sectors of the community to ensurea better environment for children, $20 million for classroom resources. * A new capital plan to address infrastructure needs needs. * Increased financial support . to low-income

seniors.

Initiatives to. ensure basic access to shelter, including integration of homeess-shelter integration of homeless-shelter includinSprograms.

SMore affordable housing

* 0 *

9 Moe afordblehousng.down Designated waiting-time limits for selected. health services. Better health.care delivery. A Family Law Act, which will consolidate current family laws and also address spousal and child support and child custody and access issues.

Almost 45,000 international migrants came to the Edmonton CMA during the 1990s; 58% of the newcomers came from Asia (the largest single contributor was the Philippines, at 12.4% of the total). However if the figures from China and Hong Kong are combined, this represents the largest group. The majority of immigrants to Canada during the period 1996 to 2001 were of working age (25 to 64). The Edmonton CMA now has the fifth highest. proportion (14.9%) of visible minorities among Canadian census metropolitan areas. The Aboriginal population of the CMNA continues to grow - from. 3.8% of the city population in 1996 to 4:4% in.2001.

having, activity limitations. This is very close to the national average. Edmonton's stock of affordable housing has been eroded through demolition or conversion to condominiums - 6,500 units were lost between 1997 and 2000. Waiting lists for social housing have increased from about 300 to 4,300 households over the past five years. The total number of homeless persons counted in October2002 (1,915) was up 65% from the previous count in September 2000; almost two-thirds of those counted were absolute homeless, meaning that they had no permanent place to reside. The number of homeless children under 15 more than doubled bten19 12 n 02(6) (267). between 1999 (112)and 2002 Property crimes rose by 11% in 2002, with thefts from autos continuing, an upward trend with an increase of: 20%. Traffic collisions reached a fiveyear high, increasing by 8%. Violent crime was by 7% in comparison with 2001., and youth down by 7% in.comparison with 2001, and youth crime (ages 12 to .17) declined by 11%. The results of a new recreation and leisure survey of Edmontonians found that they seem to be somewhat less involved in active pursuits, and showed a higher participation rate in passive activities. This is consistent with research conducted in 1999 by the Alberta Centre for Well-Being. This research found that 48% of Edmonton residents were physically active on a regular basis. In. comparison, 56% of Calgarians saidthey were exercising regularly. The majority of Edmontonians (79%) reported they sometimes or always felt under pressure in completing their daily tasks; 44% felt they had less leisure time available to theim than they did two years ago. Research by Statistics Canada found that Canadians with high incomes are more likely to feel. under time pressures than those with lower incomes.

A new study has shed valuable light on Canadians with disabilities.

12.5%

of Albertans reported

Preparedby: City Forecast Comittee, October2003

Page 3

.Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 -2008

* increased assessment base, and * increased spending on education and health care by the provincial government.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE OUTLOOK

However,

over the

same period,

Edmonton's government and public sector must deal with:

Business Sector

Over the forecast period, Edmonton's business community is expected to benefit from: * *

* * * *

slightly higher population growth, strong employment growth, modest increase in wages and salaries, lower income and business taxes, therefore, ) strong and stable disposable income growth, > strong and stable purchasing power growth, > stable consumer spending, and > strong and stable demand for housing/rental units, continued spin-off from investment activity in energy, pipeline and resource-related projects in northern Alberta, moderating energy costs, a large supply of relatively low-cost downtown office space, moderate inflation and a strong housing market.

However, during the same businesses must adjust to:

period,

Edmonton

continued municipal infrastructure shortfalls, * continued excess supply of space and a slower increase in real estate prices in the downtown non-residential markets, * increased demand for municipal services as a result of growth pressures, e.g. roadways, transit, parkland, etc., 9 continued demand for government services in the areas of health, education and infrastructure as a result of the ageing population and positive net migration, * the number of potential retirees exceeding the number of first-time labour market entrants, * a shortage of affordable housing, and * homelessness.

Families and Individuals Over

forecast period, expected to benefit from: *

* *

shortage of skilled labour in certain occupations, increased house prices and rental rates,

increased security and insurance costs as a result

of increased concerns over terrorist activities, *. potentially higher electricity costs, and * increased health care premium costs.

the

Edmontonians

are

increased tax credits for child benefits and medical expenses, increased employment opportunities and a healthy rise in wages as a result of continued

strong economic activity, and *

some moderation in the extent of poverty for the working poor with children.

However, Edmontonians must also deal with:

Government and the Public Sector

* Over the next few years, Edmonton's government and public sector will benefit from: *

continued province,

strong economic

growth

rising house prices and rents due to tight supply/demand for rental units, increased health care premiums, and providing more care for aged relatives.

in the

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 2003

Page 4

INTRODUCTION

S S S

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 - 2008

This .reportan provides economic and social. This _report provides an economic and social. analysis of the current and future changes in the City of Edmonton and the Edmonton Census Metrop~~~litanct (CMA see map in Appendix III) (CMA --eseoapnnAppndxII Metropolitan Area for the years 2003 to 2008.. The outlook is uised as a the City of the preparation reference Edmonton'sfor2004-206 corporate of and departmental Edmonton's 2004-2006 corporate and departmental business plans, 2004 departmental departmental operating 2004 plans, business budgets, the 2004-08 Capital Priorities Plan, and the 2004-2013.Long Range Financial Plan. In addition, other public agencies, citizens and businesses use the forecast for planning purposes.

Recently released economic indicators show that growth for the forth quarter is expected to remain strong, as lower personal income taxes were responsible for a large increase in retail sales, while an. increase in industrial production also signalled a rebound in'the manufacturing sector. Power outages that crippled the Northeast and several Midwest August are not expected to haive much of an states inone impacton the economy. Growth in the United States is expected to reach 4% in 2004, and average 3.1% over the rest of the forecast period, as higher interest rates soften consumer spending.

Economic Growth Quarterly United and Canada Ut States emua mnaa

The City Forecast Committee monitors economic and social activities/trends throughoUt .the year. The Committee prepares an outlook report semi-

a u.S.

.Canada

annually, in the spring and in the fall.

i PART 1: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2000

The economic outlook outlined in this report does

into consideration the possible impacts on not take 00

2001

2002

2003

o. " ore. ..... s.."."',x ..... *c us...

the economy of the Kyoto protocol.

UNITED STATES

CANADA

The U.S. economy is expected to rebound by the end of 2003. The economy is expected to grow at 2.3% in 2003, 4% in 2004 and it is expected to average 3.1% peryear over the 2005-08 period.

The Canadian economy is expected to follow the U.S. economy and grow at a rate of 2% in 2003, 3;.5% in 2004 and average 2.9% .over the 20052008 period.

Itis anticipated that growthin the United States will

The Canadian economy expanded in 2002 at a rate

reach 2.3% in 2003, slightly lower than 2.4% in 2002. The United States grew 7.2% at annualized rates in thle third quarter, up from .3.3% in the second quarter and 1.4% in thie first quarter, due to increased personal consumption expenditure, federal defence spending and non-residential business investment. However, despite a weaker U.S. dollar, a soft global economy lowered total exports in the second and third quarters. .

of 3.3%, higher than the 2001 rate of 1.9%, fueled primarily by low interest rates, strong consumer spending and a robusthousing market. Employment growth had a banner. year, increasing 3.7% and creating 560,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 7.5% from 8% in 2001.

Preparedby: CiO'ty Forecast Committee, October 2003

Growth in Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2003 is anticipated to reach .2% in 2003. The economy grew 2.6% at annualized rates in the first quarter of2003 before retracting 0.3% in the second Page 5

IQ Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 - 2008 quarter, due primarily to the SARS outbreak, the BSE-related beef export ban, and a drop in exports brought on by a sharp appreciation of the Canadian dollar. Despite this decrease, real consumer expenditure grew a solid 2.7% in the second quarter, primarily due to continued strength in the housing market, which increased consumer purchases of furniture and appliances. A stronger U.S. outlook for the second half of 2003, along with an end to the SARS outbreak, will improve economic conditions. However, the recent electricity blackout in Ontario and continued strength in the dollar may prevent the Canadian economy from out-performing the United States for the rest of 2003.

The prime lending rate in Canada increased 0.5 percentage points to 5% between January and April 2003, before easing to its current level of 4.5%. It is estimated that the prime lending rate will average 4.8% for 2003. Increased economic activity will lead to an increase of the prime rate to 6.5% in 2004, and average 6.3% for the remainder of the forecast period.

Prime Lending rate United States and Canada

mmuuh

... ,_ ......-

9--

8-s

It is expected that the Canadian economy will expand by 3.5% in'2004, and average approximately States and â&#x20AC;˘ 3% between 2005 and 2008 as the United global economic conditions improve.

3nd

2002

2001

2000

2003

Source: Bank ofCaneda, U.S. FederalRA rveBoard

Economic Growth m

m m

United States and Canada

m amumm mni

Prime Lending Rate Forecast

I 0.2

mCanadamM

mmMN III

2000 2001

MME

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

3-i

28ou-.: U.S. Dapartn-t of Co-n, rce,Statistics Canada, City ForeastCommittee

0. 2000 2001

Prime :Lending Rate Primle eldifig IRate Interest rates in Canada and in the United States followed different paths in 2002, as the divergence in economic activity between the two required separate responses by their respective central banks. Strong economic growth in Canada prompted Strong economic growth in Canada prompted chartered banks to increase interest rates by 0.75 percentage points to 4.5%, while talk of deflation in the United States kept interest rates constant at 4.75% for the most part of 2002, before dropping to 4.'25% by years end.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

___________________________________ Coonittee Source. Bank of Canada, City Forecast

Exchange Rate The Canadian dollar had a roller coaster ride in .0 2002. It started the year at US$0.626 and strengthened level US$0660 level the US$0.660 over the just over reach just to reach strengthened to range It quickly :fell to a June. near the end of fe t aane Uiy n o between US$0.630 and US$0.645 for the balance of the year, before ending at US$0.633. The Canadian dollar strengthened dramatically through most of 2003, rising from US$0.635 at the

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October2003

Page 6

I*Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003

beginning of the year to its current rate of around US$0.760. This appreciation is due primarily to wide interest.rate differentials between the United States and Canada, weak U.S. growth at the end of 2002 and the beginning of 2003, and strengthening commodity prices. We expect the dollar to average US$0.720 in 2003, US$0.740 in 2004, and average US$0.70 for the remainder of the forecast period.

and a 2.6% increase in employment. Even with only 10% of the total population of Canada, Alberta contributed 19% to the total increase of housing starts nation-wide, with only Ontario and Quebec having a larger share.

Economic Growth Alberta and Edmonton m ,mamuummm mnanl

Canada-US Exchange Rate _mm-me-emuaaume me

Forecast mmuaiII

2008

8 ,

Edmoton

,3-

0.76 0.74-

0.72-1

S0.7-

-1- -

0.68 -

2000 2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0. - 0.64 0.62

_ -

Source: Statistics Canada, CityForecastCommittae

0.60.58 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Soue: Bankof CanadaCity Forceat Commti..

ALBERTA energy prices, growth in the to the high Due Alberta economy highis expected to reachr 3% in 2003, 4%et i n 2004, aneecd t re of te 4% in 2004, and average 3.5% for the rest of the forecast period. .33%

2002

Alberta's GDP is estimated to have grown 1.7% in 2002, down from 2% in 2001. Low energy prices in early 2002*led to a drop in the value of international exports and a decline in conventionial energy investment. The value of manufacturing shipments also declined during the first half of the year, but. later showed signs of improvement. The agrictiltural sector was hit with a severe drought, which reduced total crop and livestock receipts. Despite these decreases, low interest rates and strong interprovincial migration helped boost consumer spending, leading to a 33% increase in total housing starts, a,7.9% increase in retail sales, Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2003

Growth will continue in 2003 Despite the export ban levied on Alberta beef by several countries from the single reported case of Mad Cow Disease in May 2003, economic growth is expected to reach 3% in 2003, led primarily by low interest rates, a booming housing sector, and continued investment in the energy sector. Shortages in North American natural gas.supplies have led to a increase in active rigs drilling for the first nine months of 2003 compared to the same tiine period in 2002, strengthening conventional energy investment. Low interest rates have also contributed to an increase in consumerspending, as retail sales increased in July. incresed 6% % on onaa yearover-year year-over-year basis basis in July. Housing starts have also remained strong, increasing 7%on year-vea basis in September. 7% on a year-over-year basis in September. Oil and Gas Tensions, in the Middle East, including the war between the United States and .1raq, have contributed to volatility in world energy markets. The price of oil (West Texas Intermediate) reached a high of US$36/bbl in February 2003, before falling to US$28/bbl in September. Current oil prices have since rebounded to around US$30/bbl due to Page 7

conomic Outlook,

E.dmn.ton Soco

continued tensions in the Middle East and a recent announcement.by OPEC that production may be cut this winter to maintain current price levels. Energy prices in 2003 are expected to average US$30.50/bbl, higher than the 2002 average of US$26.09. Prices are expected to moderate in 2004 to US$25.50/bbl, and average US$23.50/bbl in the forecast period.

World Oil Prices

003 -.2008 .

springtime as high prices spurred increased drilling activity in North America. The active number of rigs drilling in Alberta increased 33% for the first nine months of 2003 compared to tile same time period in 2002. Natural gas prices are expected to average Can$6.48/GJ this year, then moderate to Can$5.71/GJ in 2004 and average Can$4.60/GJ for the remainder of the forecast period.

Migration

Net Migration Net

(US$/bbl) m

nll

imianm

35 30-

25 20

D15

-Migration

01 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Strength in the Alberta economy over the last several years has brought approximately 190,000 people to the province between 1997 to 2002. Total net interprovincial migration is estimated to have reached 46,200 in 2002, a 43% increase from 2001. is expected to fall slightly in 2003 to 35,200, but still remain at high levels. It is estimated that migration will remain around 35,000 in 2004,

and average 31,000 per year between 2005 and 2008, as stronger growth in the rest of Canada, raf rereduces poy the n.need for people to a et Al Ontario, also Natural gas prices have particularly volatile a volatilemo have followed also followed gas prices move to Alberta for employment. path. An unexpectedly cold winter in 2002-03 drove u....e; ity

or....,eao.m...

up the demand for natural gas, leading to the largest monthly storage withdrawal on record in January 2003, preventing supply from keeping pace with demand. The market responded with a rapid run up in prices, with the daily AECO spot price averaging as much as $13.00 per GJ in the final week in February. Average monthly AECO spot prices increased from Can$7.02/GJ in January 2003 to Can$8.92/GJ in February, before falling to Can$5.81/GJ in July. North American natural gas

storage levels have been increasing since the

Alberta Natural Natural Gas Gas Prices. Prices mm

(Cdn$/GJ) Wammimmmi nall I

Net Migration Forecast" Alberta, Edmonton (CMA)and Edmonton (City) AEnMA Em oon (Iy 50so.000

40,000

3o,ooo 000

z0,000

1, 2000 2001

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

0Z08

SAlberta ource: Statistics Canada.City ofEdmontonPlanning & Development Department Numbers are forJulyl of previous yearto June 31 of current year

$7.00 $6.00 --

S5.00

.S4.00 $2.00 $1,00 $0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Sourne: City Forecst Committee

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee, October 2003.

Page 8

Edlni ton Socio-Economic Outlook 2003 - 2008

S EDMONTONEDMONTON Economic growth

â&#x20AC;˘_ gAlberta The Edmonton region is estimated to have grown at 2.5% in 2002. It is expected to continue to expand at a solid 3.1% in 2003, 3.7% in 2004, and average 3.3% between 2005-2008 period. Despite the U.S. economy being on. shaky ground, economy had a higher the Edmonton regional ~Manufacturing in 2002, growing an province the growth rate than estimated 2.5%, due primarily to.strong consumer

spending and a robust housing market. TPipeline The strength in both consumer spending and the activity in the housing market has spilled into 2003, giving the Edmonton regional economy an estimated growth rate of 3.1%. Strong energy prices and a strengthening U.S. economy in the second half of 2003 will also fuel economic growth, as the region's economy continues to benefit from economic spin

Summary of Major Projects ($millions)

Sector

Northern Alberta _ _ T m_ r i mh Total Agriculture and Related 137 254 Chemicals and Petroleums 246 246 Commercial/Retail 748 2,199 Commercial/Retail and Residential 452 771 Forestry and Related 276 276 8,223 4,477 Infrastructure 4,728 2,776 Institutional 50 55 5540 50 Manufacturing 40 40 Mining 50,921 50,733 Oil, Gas and Oilsands Other Industrial 76 104 2,667 2,572 Power 2,463 4,923 Residential 700 1,518 300 .300 Telecommunications 1,236 3,583 Tourism/Recreation 80,808 67,282 Total Sources: Alberta Economic Development, October 2003 Totals may not add up due to rounding

offs from investment in norihern Alberta. The Major Projects List, published by Alberta Economic Development, shows that total proposed, announced, recently completed and under construction projects * in northern Alberta total $67 billion, or 83% of the lretail/commercial total value of major projects in all of Alberta.

The following projects will have a significant impact on. the Edmonton economy over the next five years:

Commercial/Retail . $250 million for the South Edmon ton Common retail complex by Cameron Corp. and Grosvenor International.

$100 million for the Shivam ParkAuto Mall and Shopping Centre in Sherwood Park by Shivam Developments.

SDevelopments. * -

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 2003

illion, for the Centre in the Park

developers.

development by various

Infrastructure $2.10 million for the Anthony enday Drive *$2.10 million for the Anthony Henday Drive extension to Calgary Trail by Alberta Transportation. * *

.Commercil/Retail and Residential * $250 million for Station Lands Commercial by Qualico development SResidential

$120

$270 million for the: Anthony Henday Drive extension in south east Edmonton. $100 million to extend the LRT to the Jubilee Auditorium by the City of Edmonton. $638 million to extend the LRT from the Jubilee Auditorium to Heritage Mall by the City of Edmonton.

Institutional *

$85 million for the Alberta Heart Institute by Capital Health. Page 9

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 - 2008 *

$100 million. for the Tower Wing at the Royal Alexandra Hospital by Capital Health.

the National Institute for $120 million $0forion uildiny the National

Nanotechnology Building by the National Research Council and the University of Alberta.

Investment activity in northern Alberta, along with investment initiatives around the Edmonton region, will lead to both strong employment and migration, which will add to the total customer base and keep consumer spending strong in the forecast period. Growth in Edmonton is estimated to increase 3.7% in 2004, and average 3.3% between 2005 and 2008. Despite the continued strength in investment

$214 million for the Health Innovation Research Centre by the University of Alberta.

initiatives, higher interest rates, due to a strengthening Canadian economy, will dampen activity in the housing market in the forecast period.

Oil, Gas and Oilsands *

$220 million for Strathcona upgrades by Imperial Oil.

Demographic changes refinery

* $1,500 million for Phase 2: Addition of Processing Unit to expand capacity by Petro-Canada Oil and Gas. *

$1,500 million for Phase 1: Conversion to Upgrade Bitumen by Petro-Canada Oil and Gas.

Pipelines *

$188 million for an increase in pipeline capacity from the Wood Buffalo region (Ft. McMurray) to Strathcona by Alberta Oil Sands Pipeline Limited. $800 million for a bitumen pipeline from the Wood Buffalo region (Ft. McMurray) to the Edmonton area by Bison Pipeline Limited.

The other component of population change, natural increase, is expected to decline as the number of deaths increase and births decline as the population ages.

Population Forecast Edmonton (CMA) and Edmonton (City) umumau ii m FCMA

1200 100

E800 -

$600 Million for Genesee Power Plant

Phase 3 (490MW) in Leduc County by EPCOR Utilities Inc. Residential Residential *

The City of Edmonton's population is expected to increase by 44,800 by 2008, reaching just over 742,000 by 2008 (see Table 2), while the population of the Edmonton CMA is expected to increase by 70,100 reaching 1.055 million (Table 3). Net migration for the Edmonton CMA is expected to range between 9,500 in 2003 to 8,500 in 2008.

V1000.

Power *

$200 million for a subdivision in Spruce Grove by Signature Developments.

Tourism/Recreation *

$145 million expansion of West Edmonton Mall.

$250 million for the new Provincial Museum by the Western Canadian Museum Foundation.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 2003

60 000

200EF

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

S0o3!,wo.ac

,Cit .

The City of Edmonton and the Edmonton CMA population continues to age. The 2001 Census of Canada indicates that the median age for the City of Edmonton's population increased from 33.8 in 1996 to 35.3 in 2001. The median age for the Edmonton CMA is the second youngest (after Calgary) of the 2 y country's ten largest urban areas. The number of people aged under 40 in the Edmonton CMA is Page 10

expected to increase by 16,500 over the forecast period compared with an increase of 54,000 for people aged 40 and over. The largest increase by 2008 is for people aged in the 50s age group (just over 27,000 for the CMA).

S 0

m_ *00.

Edmonton CMA Population: Change by Age, 2003 - 2008 m m emu mmemus

Employment The Edmonton CMA is expected to create 13,800 new jobs in 2003, 11,500 in 2004 and average 11,400 per year over the 2005-08 period. Total employment in 2002 for the Edmonton CMA reached 522,000 with the creation of 17,000 net new jobs, primarily in the goods producing sector (62% of total new jobs).

28000 S20000

.o.I

Labour Market

5000 0 ..

ainm

mmam

Edmonton mimm m (CMA) lini

-5000.

o** 1o-l o - o30-3

7 40-49 Wse so-59 rW-

,Employment:

5O e7 5

Souce: Cny of Edmonton

52 "Q

Our aging population has a direct impact on the size of the working age population (ages 15 to 64) and the labour force, which is comprised of people either

working, or looking for work. As the working age population ages, more people will leave the labour force than enter it. The population of the City of Edmonton and the Edmonton CMA have broadly similar age profiles, with the CMA having a slightly larger share of people aged under 20 and the City having larger eo C share of young adults and people aged 60 and over. This changing age structure has important implications for various sectors of the economy: .*

0 *

The growth in the number of people in the age group between 25 and 34 will increase demand forapartments and first-time buyer housing; The large:increase in the 50s and 60s age group will.support demand for more expensive housing and 'empty nester' or retirement housing, and The high growth in the number of people aged 65 and over will increase-demand for social and health care services.

on -2

o 2000

2001

2002

2003

Sour e: Statistics Canada

Strengthening North-American economies, high energy prices, and strong investment in megar projects in northern Alberta and the Edmonton region, will keep employment growth reasonably region, will keep .employment growth reasonably strong in the forecast period. Employment growth in strong in the forecast period.. Employment growth in the Edmonton CMA is expected to be 13,800 in 2003, 11,500 in 2004, and average 11,400.in the 2005-2008 period. A total of 70,900 new jobs will be created between 2003 and 2008.

Prepared0by: City Forecast Committee, October 2003

Page 11

Preparedby: City.ForecastCommittee, October20037

Page 11

03-2008'

Edonton Socio-Economic Oulo, Inflation

Edmonton's inflation rate is expected to increase to 5.3% in 2003, up from 2.9% in 2002. We expect it to moderate to 3.5% in 2004 and to 2.5% by

Orny EdRutais Byrlq EttW2taid2D1

2008.

Edmonton's inflation rate, as measured by the

Consumer Price Index (CPI), has decreased from its high levels in the beginning of 2003. Inflation was 7.6% in January, rising to 9.1% in March, before moderating to 4.5% in September. The variability and high rates witnessed at the beginning of 2003 particularly were attributable to high utility prices, pi for natural gas and electricity. It is anticipated that inflation for the Edmonton region will average 5.3%

Unem[loyment Rate The unemployment rate in Edmonton in 2002 was 5.1%. It is expected to fall to 5.0% in 2003, rise slightly to 5.1% in 2004, and average 4.8% for the rest of the forecast period.

for 2003. Moderation in energy prices and an increase in interest rates in the forecast period will reduce the rate of inflation to 3.5% in 2004, and decline further to 2.5% by 2008. The increase in interest rates in the forecast period will be brought on by the monetary policy actions by the Bank of Canada to keep the rate of inflation in the target range between 1.0-3.0%.

0 Edmonton (CMA)

iulhi

the unemployment rate to rise slightly to 5.1% in

2002 from 4.9% in 2001. Healthy employment Weakening migration

will

.... i= continue to keep the unemployment rate low in the forecast period, reaching 5.0% in 2003, 5.1% in 2004, and averaging 4.8% for the 2005-2008 period.

lves â&#x20AC;˘in te

SoUrce: Statissio

egnnngof203.Inlaio ws

2001

000

Labour Market Forecast

Inflation Rate

Strong migration into the Edmonton region forced growth, and slightly

2002

2003

C...d.

Edmonton (CMA) EmploynenI rat* --- Unempylnmnt

700 600

500 z300-

2004 100 0

400

5.6 5.4

5.2 4.8

4.6 4

4.2 4

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Gourol:Sttiallas Caada. CityForaaw Commitne

â&#x20AC;˘m Preparedby: City Forecast CommIittee, October 2003

Page 12

Edmotiton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 - 2008 Building Permits

Inflation Rate Forecast Edmonton (C.M.A.)

mmumummiii

........

, -

m mlmumu

Edmonton (City)

mmminI

120-

5 4

100 -

3:N...-

oy00

2003

2SA80

Source: Statlalic. Canada. City Forcat Comrnitlea In27.hevleofbidngpris

nraed001mm

Source:Planning and Dewlopnent. mu m

mui

Building Permits

In 2002 the value of building permits increased over 26% from the previous year. It is expected that the value of building permits will remain relatively stable between $850 and $1,080 million for the durationof the forecastperiod.

Building Permit Forecast Edmonton (City)

The value of building permits rose 26% to $1.142

1200

1o 800

-oo .400

200

'2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200 2006 2007 2008 billion in 2002, fueled primarily by a strong housing residential in increase 65% a market that brought on building permits. Commercial sector building ecto buldinZ:'Source: PManning and Developmeant, City Forecast Commwittee Co mercal 9 pemits buldin permits increased by 11%, while the value of

S S

Plgandvlopmnt CiyForeatmmit

industrial sector permits decreased by 9%.

A slight weakening of the housing market during the second half of 2003 will see building permits falling slightly from their 2002 levels to a range between $915 million and $1,076 million in 2003. This gentle downward trend will continue into the forecast period as interest rates slowly rise and the *housing market softens.

Non-Residential Construction Price Due to continued strength in energy industry development in northern Alberta and various project investment initiatives in the Edmonton region, the noi-residential building construction cost index will increase to 3% in 2003 and 3.5% in 2004, before settling down to 2% by 2008.

0 Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2003

Prprdb:Ct0oeatCmmteOtbr20

Page 13

ae1

tEdmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 - 2008

Edmonton's Non-Residential

Housing Starts Forecast

Construction Price

Edmonton (City) and Edmonton (CMA) muullMuiil

mmuuul

mnill

i10,000

4-. -C1

14,000 ~12,06"

[

8,000 2,000 E=-4:000 z 2 ,000

0 2000

200

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

200 2

200

2008

2006 2007 2008 Committee Source:C.M.H.C., CityForecast

Committee Source: Statistic. Canada. City Forecast

_ _ _ _

Sore

Housing starts in 2002 reached 12,582 in the Edmonton region, and 8,822 in the City, the highest levels since the early 1980s. We expect housing starts in the City to be 8,535 in 2003 and

prices increase approximately [4%. This is over quadruple the genera'rate of inflation.

5-Year Mortgage Rate

7,962 in 2004, and average approximately 6,260 .___ between 2005 and 2008

mumun

The exceptionally strong housing activity in the Edmonton region in 2002 and for most of 2003 was a result of a number of compounding factors. Record low mortgage rates, increased net migration,

1 14 12

z10 4.

starts in the Edmonton CMA reached

1990

Edmonton (C.M.A.) us m~mm il

10oo0-

MMu4 ipes

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Source:BankOf canada

2003, housing starts for the City are expected to decrease slightly to 8,535, with the Edmonton CMA dropping to 12,110. A major contributor to the high level of housing starts for most of 2003 can be attributable to an estimated 5% increase in multiple

12oo00 -housing

starts. Over the 2004-2008 forecast period, starts inthe City are expected to average just over 6,200 and for the Edmonton CMA just over 9,000. u

~housing

00 400

Due to a softening housing market in the last half of

Housing Starts mmm

1.2,582 in

2002, 60% higher than the level seen in 2001. The City of Edmonton showed even more strength, with housing starts increasing 83% to 8,822 starts.

.12-Yer Average

high employment growth and high disposable incomes all contributed to the increase. Housing

1000

Average home prices also increased substantially in 2002. After a number of years of single digit percentage increases in prices and even falling prices in the mid 1990s, 2002 saw average housing

Housing Market

_ _

__CtyFrcs_

200 0,0 2000

2001

2002

2003

Source: StalmosicCanade

October by: 2003 City Forecast Committee,

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 2003

Page 14

0Pr

Page 14

0 0

• •• •

•

•• •• • •• •• •• •• •• • • •• • •• • • •• •• •

• • • • • •

•

Edmonton Socio-EcOnontic Outlook, 2003 - 2008 Rental Market

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RISKS

The apartment vacancy rate in Edmonton averaged 1.7% in 2002 and is expected to increase to 3.5% in 2003 and 3% in 2004. The downtown office vacancy rate in 2002 was 12.3% and is expected to decrease to 12% in 2003 and 11.5% in 2004. The annual report on apartment vacancies by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) pegs the apartment vacancy rate in Edmonton at 1.7% in 2002. This is up from the 0.9% rate in 2001, the lowest rate since 1978. It is expected that the apartment vacancy rate will increase to 3.5% in 2003 and 3% in 2004, due primarily to the large increase in multiple housing units, and lower mortgage rates that have encouraged renters to leave the housing market to purchase houses. After two consecutive years of large increases in average rental rates, rents are expected to moderate in 2003. Average rents increased 9.3% in 2001 and a further 7.7% in 2002. The CMHC is expecting rents to moderate in 2003 to approximately 6% in 2003. The downtown office vacancy rate increased to 12.3% in 2002 from 11.4% in 2001. Vacancy rates are expected to moderate to approximately 12% in 2003, 11.5% in 2004 and average just over 10% between 2005 and 20008.

Vacancy rate Forecast Edmonton (City) IM=MIIIIMENIMEINEMEI o Apa 'intent • olTke space

2000 . 2001 2002 2003

. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: C.M.H.C.. City Forecast Committee

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2003

Upside Risks to the Outlook 'Increased tensions in the Middle East, including the aftermath of the war on Iraq by the United States, could disrupt oil supplies and fuel volatility in world energy markets. This may translate into higher energy prices, which would benefit overall economic activity in Alberta. Also, a quick resolution to the Mad-Cow Crisis could also improve economic conditions further. Downside Risks to the Outlook A sustained increase in energy prices may dampen growth in the United States and the rest of the world economy as increased inflation erodes the purchasing power of consumers, hampering Canadian and Alberta exports. On the flip-side, a strengthening world economy may lead to an increase in non-OPEC oil supplies to meet increased oil demand, putting a strain on OPEC market share, which would drive down the price of oil. In such a case, planned investment in the Alberta

energy

sector could be jeopardised and provincial government revenues reduced. Recent U.S. National Energy Policies are proposing an increase in domestic energy supplies, including the continued development of nuclear and .coal-fired power generation. The adoption of this approach would reduce the emphasis on gas fired generating plants; slow the increase in U.S. natural gas demand and remove much of the Upward 'pressure on recent gas prices. If aggressively adopted, this policy may lead to a reduction in the current pace of development of North American gas resources, and hamper natural gas development in Alberta. A concerted effort to meet the greenhouse gas objectives of the Kyoto protocol through a mandated increase in the reliance on natural gas Would increase both its demand and price, and would require expanded drilling programs and pipeline facilities in the province. Whether such a change would increase 'overall economic activity in Albe.rta and Edmonton would depend on the extent to which other industries might be damaged by these and other climate Change provisions.

Page 15

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 - 2008

Table 1 Forecast for Selected Economic Indicators Actual/Estimate

Indicator World Oil Price (US$/bbl) (1) Alberta Natural Gas Price ($/GJ) (2) Economic Growth Rate (% change)* United States Canada Alberta Prime Lending Rate (% Exchange Rate(US$/Cdn$) Net Migration (Alberta) (000) (3)

Forecast

2005

2006

2007

United States, Canada and Alberta 25.50 26.09 30.50 30.30 25.94 5.71 3.83 6.48 5.91 4.81

23.64 4.81

23.37 4.51

23.38 4.54

23.75 4.60

2.3 2.0 3.0 4.80 0.720 35.2

4.0 3.5 4.0 6.50 0.740 35.2

3.5 3.0 3.7 6.50 0.720 33.3

3.0 2.8 3.3 6.25 0.700 30.2

3.0 2.7 3.3 6.25 0.700 30.4

3.0 3.0 3.5 6.00 0.700 30.3

8.5 5.5 1,028 725

8.5 5.5 1,041 734

8.5 5.5 1,055 742

2000

3.8 5.3 5.1 7.27 0.673 31.0

2001

2002

2.4 0.3 3.3 1.9 1.7 2.0 5.81 4.21 0.637 0.646 32.3 46.2 Edmonton

2003

2004

72008

Net Migration - CMA(000) (3) - City(000) (3) Population - CMA(000) (4) - City(000) (4)

7.8 4.8 942 670

7.2 4.3 954 666

12.5 8.61 967 686

9.5 6.7 985 698

9.5 6.2 1,000 708

9.0 5.8 1,013 716

Economic Growth Rate (CMA)(%)

5.4

3.5

2.5

3.1

3.7

3.4

3.0

3.2

3.4

489 5.5 3.3

505 4.9 2.2

522 5.1 2.9

536 5.0 5.3

547 5.1 3.5

559 5.0 3.0

568 5.0 2.7

579 4.7 2.5

593 4.6 2.5

1.4 13.8

0.9 11.4

1.7 12.3

3.5 12.0

3.0 11.5

3.0 11.0

2.8 10.0

3,765 2,137

4,811 2,815

8,822 4,158

8,535 3,648

7,962 3,528

6,992 3,438

6,197 3,363

- Multi-Family

1,628

1,996

4,664

4,887

4,434

3,554

2,834

5,935 3,357 2,578

5,927 3,429 2,498

-Total - Single Family

6,228 4,072

7,855 4,959

12,582 6,861

12,110 6,155

11,344 5,955

10,094 5,805

9,069 5,680

8,739 5,670

8,759 5,790

- Multi-Family

2,156

2,896

5,721

5,955

5,389

4,289

3,389

3,069

2,969

1,142 2.1

915 1,076 3.0

914 1,037 3.5

910 1,023 3.0

905 1,018 2.3

897 1,013 2.0

887 1,009 2.0

Employment (CMA)(000) Unemployment Rate(CMA)(%) Inflation Rate CPI(CMA)(%) Vacancy Rate (%) Apartment (CMA, Oct) Downtown Office (the City, Dec) Housing Starts (Units) -Total City - Single Family CMA

Building Permit Value -Low - High -(City) ($million) Non-Res Construction Price (%change)

787 4.1

905 3.2

0 0

*The U.S., Canada and Alberta economic growth rates are for real GDP at market price.

Sources: Actual/Estimate: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, CB Richard Ellis, Canadian Petroleum Association, Alberta Economic Development and The City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department Forecast: City Forecast Committee, October, 2003 Notes: 1. World oil prices are for West Texas Intermediate crude at Cushing, Oklahoma inU.S. dollars.

2. Natural gas prices are AECO 30-Day Spot Natural Gas Price (Can$/GJ) 3. Numbers are for July 1 of previous year to June 31 of current year. 4. The 2001 figures are post-censal estimates by Statistics Canada, which are different from the actual 2001 Canada Census. Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2003

Page 16

••

•

•• •• •• •• •• •• •

•

•• • •• •• • •• •

Table 2: City of Edmonton Population, 2001 - 2008 2006

2007

2008

39,611

40,356

40,761

41,258

39,106

38,767

37,922

38,021

'38,109

42,717

42,352

41,676

40,983

40,027

39,278

46,172

46,203

46,336

46,393

46,498

46,544

46,423

56,633

57,336

59,290

60,533

61,396

61,995

62,267

62,038

25 -29

57,897

59,397

60,902

62,228

63,368

64,123

64,964

66,425

30 34

53,415

53,342

54,201

54,687

55,359

56,482

57,992

59,001

35-39

56,534

54,955

53,406

52,327

51,999

52,221

•52,264

52,761

40 -44

58,079

58,252

58,657

58,403

57,582

56,066

54,655

52,912

45 - 49

51,735

53,734

55,628

56,901

57,782

58,507

58,746

58,975

50 - 54

41,633

42,417

43,731

45,786

47,856

49,973

51,913

53,584

55 59

29,825

32,341

34,585

36,494

38,534

40,243

41,016

42,171

60 - 64

24,893

25,733

26,876

28,080

29,268

30,709 , 33,275

35,500

65 -69

22,906

23,100

23,512

23,893

24,411

25,073

25,917

27,002

70 - 74

20,636

21,088

21,460

21,664

21,796

21,917

22,115

22,458

75 - 79

17,647

18,015

18,352

18,887

19,440

20,022

20,389

20,748

80 -84

9,528

10,193

10,995

11,592

12,080

12,380

12,682

12,850

85+

7,555

7,948

8,316 ,

8,669

9,129

r 9,727

10,323

10,974

716,450 725,197 733,869

742,467

, 2004

2001*

2002

2003

0-4

38,838

38,883

39,188

39,333

5-9

41,304

40,236

39,639

10 - 14

42,727

42,717

15 - 19

45,906

20 - 24

Total

677,690 685,859 697,657 707,271

2005

Prepared by City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, October, 2003 *The 2001 postcensal figure is an estimate by the City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, based on the Edmonton CMA postcensal estimate by Statistics Canada (please see the note on Table 3 for the 2001 Edmonton CMA postcensal estimate). The actual 2001 federal census count fOr the City of Edmonton is 666,105.

• •• • • 411, •

411/

' Forecast Committee, October 2003 Prepared by: City

Page 17

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 -2008

Table 3: Edmonton CMA Population, 2001 - 2008 2001*

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

0-4

55,851

55,995

56,532

56,829

57,327

58,518

59,207

60,034

5- 9

62,643

61,138

60,340

59,626

59,207

58,019

58,272

58,497

10- 14

66,681

66,783

66,912

66,461

65,521

64,543

63,149

62,079

15-19

69,264

69,736

69,896

70,215

70,444

70,757

70,945

70,848

20- 24

72,189

73,224

75,867

77,573

78,806

79,701

80,156

79,993

25-29

73,104

75,124

77,183

79,030

80,624

81,710

82,917

84,929

30- 34

72,429

72,460

73,766

74,557

75,597

77,234

79,441

80,977

35-39

80,784

78,677

76,589

75,151

74,784

75,224

75,426

76,273

40- 44

84,586

84,985

85,728

85,511

84,458

82,385

80,452

78,021

45-49

75,019

78,055

80,958

82,961

84,398

85,613

86,114

86,600

50-54

61,951

63,206

65,259

68,433

71,645

74,959

78,029

80,702

55- 59

44,765

48,629

52,121

55,096

.58,264

60,920

62,202

64,087

60-64

34,975

36,219

37,909

39,679

41,422

43,547

47,316

50,593

65-69

30,387

30,698

31,302

31,869

32,619

33,568

34,756

36,284

70 -74

26,308

26,926

27,447

27,759

27,974

28,180

28,484

28,974

75- 79

20,002

20,332

20,920

21,583

22,268

22,977

23,509

23,905

80 -84

12,675

85+

10,456

13,657 10,992

14,514 11,516

15,245 12,062

15,734 12,855

16,158 13,664

16,416 14,549

16,849 15,288

Total.

954,069 966,836 984,758 999,642 1,013,948 1,027,679 1,041,340 1,054,933

Prepared by City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department, October, 2003 *The 2001 figure is an adjusted estimate by Statistics Canada from the actual 2001 federal census count of 937,840 people for the Edmonton CMA to reflect missed counting in the census and mid-year data (i.e. July 1

instead of May 1).

Prepared by: City Forecast Committee, October 2003

Page 18

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 - 2008

SPART 2: SOCIAL OUTLOOK

0 -

OVERVIEW .S S

The Canadian Government announced a new budget on February 18, 2003. Highlights likely to affect Edmonton's Social outlook include:

~Program.

Health Care: An additional $34.8 billion in funding over the next.five years. - $1.3 billion for Aboriginal health programs.

S-

0 * S-

$16 million for northern science. Funding for health research and for genetic health research. $30 million for SchoolNet and the Community Access Prograin. Additional funding to encourage Aboriginal entrepreneurship.

Education and Skill Development: - Initiatives to attract skilled immigrants. Funding for the Canada Student Loans Program. - Creation of the Canadian Learning Instittite. Enhanced training and employment opportunities for Aboriginals. Tax Incentives: - Modifications to RRSP and employersponsored pension plans to encourage greater participation

Families - Increased Child Tax Benefits. Funding for childcare and early learning programs, with an emphasis on low-income and single-parent families.. - Increased funding for Child Disability eesaned for ors itdisabilit Benefits,-and for others with disabilities. - Anincrease in the numberof eligible expensesfor medical expense tax ciredits.

The Environment: -

A number of initiatives to encourage more efficient energy use,. to protect the environment, and to ensure safe drinking water.

New national -Communities: An additional $1 billion for municipal infrastructure.

In the February 18, 2003 Speech from the Throne, the Government of Alberta announced:

* Aboriginals: -

Funding to support Aboriginal languages *and and culture. culture Expansion of the First Nations Policing Program. Programs to better meet the needs of urban A ZP n Aboriginals.

and Values: Canadian Culture ftr pdau Assistance for production of Canadian -asdistanc

â&#x20AC;˘ --

~places.

ing progra A five-year action plan on official languages. Financial incentives to preserve historic

places

parks and marine conservation and well as programs to restore the areas, ecological health of existing parks.

Research and Innovation:

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 2003

Programs for Children: - Amendments to the Child Welfare Act Amendments to the Child Welfare Act focusing on early intervention, preservation of the family, and. more community involvement in caring for children. - Alberta's Promise - a co-ordinated approach involving many sectors of the commununity to guarantee children a healthy stelevision tart, provide safe and healthy communities for them to develop in, ensure every child has the support and care of at least oneadult in his life, provide volunteer opportunities to give children 'a chance to contribute and help others, andfind and implement best practices relating to children.

Page

SEdmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 - 2008 -

Establishment of the Alberta Centre for Child, Family and Community Research, which a will conduct research on prevention of fetal alcohol syndrotme, as well as other issues such as early childhood development and youth at risk.

Education: - An additional $20 million for classroom resources. - Improvements in the adult learning system to improve responses to economic and workforce trends. Infrastructure: - A new capital.plan to address infrastructure needs, as well as increased funding support. Low-Income Albertans: - Increased financial support to low-income seniors. - Initiatives to ensure basic access to shelter, including integration of homeless-shelter programs. - Development of more affordable housing. - Improved and simplified supports for lowincome Albertans. - Improvements to employment training programs. *He~alth Care:SHealth Care: -

Continued reform of the health care system. Increased funding. Designated waiting-time limits for selected healths sevies health services. Improvements in the use of health care professionals to deliver services to the public, Development of strategies to promote healthy behaviours and prevent injuries and chronic diseases; work will begin with the growing incidence of diabetes in the population.

Safe Comunities: * Safe Commnrduities: dproven Steps to reduce drug, violence and gang problems in provincial prisons,

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 2003

Assistance to communities in the preparation of emergency plans, as well as assistance with training. A Family Law Act, which will consolidate current family laws and also address spousal and child support and child custody and access issues.

KEYSOCIAL ISSUES Social Implications of Demographic Change

Almost 120,000 (net) Canadians moved to Alberta between 1996 and 2001. Over the forecast period, the number of people aged 40 and over in the Edmonton CMA is forecast to increase by 54,000, as opposed to the total of just over 16,500 for people aged under 40.

It is. estimated that over the forecast period the 0-9 group in. the Edmonton CMA will see a slight change in total population growth. The total population of the 10-14 age group will fall by 4,800 people, while the 15-19 age group will increase slightly by 900 people. This decline in the number of youths will begin to have implications for schools and other agencies providing services to this group. At the other end of the population spectrum, the 75+ age group in the Edmonton CMA is expected to increase by about 9,000 people. The increase will abu0,0 epe h nraewl largely occur in the older, central. areas of the City which will be comprised mostly of women living alone. The demand for services such as health care, exercise programs, seniors housing, and aids to daily living will continue to increase. Recent life expectancy figures (1996) indicate that a newborn Canadian male can expect to live 75.7 years; for femnales the average expectancy is 81.4 years. Medical and technological innovation has to be somewhat a two-edged sword, in that people can now live longer, but often it also means some are living longer in a state of poor health,

Page 20

0 S

* ?noton'Socio-ECOnoric OUltlOq kJ2OO3 - 2008 dependent or even incapacitated. Women tend to .be. less healthy in old age. While men are more likely to be the victims of acute conditions that kill fairly quickly, women tend to be afflicted by chronic diseases like arthritis that leave them alive, but in poor health. Migration of people to Alberta from other parts of Canada has been much in the news lately, largely because Alberta was the destination of.choice for Canadians on the move between 1996 and 2001 (Statistics Canada, .2002). This movement has begun to slow in the last year. Edmonton's population growth was mainly from natural increase over the 1997-2002 period while Calgary's growth was from inter-provincial migration.,

Sources of Population Growth

contribute to Edmonton's increasingly ethnically diverse population. Seventy-one percent of the almost 45,000 international immigrants to the Edmonton CMA during the 1990s were members of a visible. minority; 58% of the newcomers came from Asia. The Edmonton CMA now has the fifth highest proportion (15%) of visible minorities among Canadian census metropolitan areas. The following lists the top sources of foreign immigration to Edmonton during the 1990s. Country of Origin. Philippines India

%of Total 12.4 10.1

People's Republic of China

10.0

Hong Kong.

6.1

Vietnam

5.1

Poland

4.0

United Kingdom

3:8

United States

3.4

Bosnia and Herzegovina

2.1

'Lebanon All others

2.1 40.9

Edmonton vs. Calgary, 1997-2002

0 0=

The majority of foreign immigrants to Canada

Naturall

during the period 1996 to 2001 were of working age

v0,or nr0otion ovfon

T so

1 ,0

520 -initial

o 0

Edmonton CMA

Souwe.:Statistl Canada2003

CalgaryCMA

Young people (aged 15 to 29) represented more than half of Edmonton's gaini from 1996 to 2001, due to the healthy economic situation here, and the fact that Alberta's unemployment rate has often been as much as two percentage points, below the national average over the period. Elsewhere in Canada, particularly in large metropolitan centres like Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, seniors are leaving the cities for smaller cities or rural areas. This was not the case for Edmonton, however, where net increases were seen for all age groups.

(25 to 64). Most (69%) of the children who immigrated to Canada went to three major centres - Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. Research has shown that while these immigrant children are at an disadvantage in terms of academic achievement, they soon catch up to or even surpass

children of Canadian-born parents. In 2001, 18% of Edmonton CMA's poptilation consistedof immigrants. Thefigure for Calgary was 21%; the national figurewas 19%. In 2001, 15% of Alberta's population consisted of. immigrants. In 1991, there were 46,785 people who were not Canadian citizens in Edmonton's populatioin. By 1999, there were only 31,161, a decrease of 33%, suggesting that immigrants are becoming citizens and making.their home here.

Canada is now second only to Australia in terms of percentage of its population that was. foreign-born. Migration from other countries continues to

In. 2001, 15% of Edmonton CMA's population consisted of visible minority groups. The share of Canada's immigrant population born in Asia and the Middle East increased from 14% :in 1981 to 3 i% in 1996; 58% of immigrants. to Edmonton over the

Preparedby; City ForecastCommittee, October 2003

Page 21

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 -2008 .

period 1991-2001 were from Asia and the Middle East. This trend is a considerable change from the predominantly European-born immigration of previous decades.

Canada is 13%. Within the CMA, Edmonton has the oldest population, as shown by the previous chart. Families

population Aboriginal (CMA) Edmonton's continues to grow - from 3.8% of the city population in 1996 to 4.4% in 2001. Edmonton also still has the second largest urban Aboriginal population in Canada, after Winnipeg. In the past we have focused on the high fertility rate as the main factor responsible for the rapid increase Recent in Canada's Aboriginal population. evidnc fromda' ther20 eu ulina e t evidence from the 2001 Census indicates that an increasing willingness to be identified as an Aboriginal, as well as improved enumeration may account for as much as half of this apparent increase. Notwithstanding, the Aboriginal birth rate is still one and a half times the rate for the . overall Canadian population. However, their birth rate has declined four times the Canadian rate in the. from four declined from 1960s. Aboriginal males Canadian Aboiginal â&#x20AC;˘Life expectancies maes Life for expectancies rose from 59.2 years in 1975 to 68.9 years in 2000. For Aboriginal females it improved from 65.9 to 76.3 years. These figures are still lower than those for the Canadian population as a whole.

Percentage of Population Over 65 Edmonton CMA, 2001

EUEEEU W iIll -tn

The number of marriageshas increased slightly, but common-lawi relationshipsare still widespread for first-time relationships,and even more so for second unions. The number of marriages in Canada has increased for the first time in three years. At the same time, the average age at which people are marrying has risen by about 2.5 years since 1989. The "typical"

Canadian family has undergone

evolution significant s by Statistics Canada by Statistics20Canada Canadians to 29

in recent years. A new study shown that the majority has of te choosing majority of thatare has shown years of age to

become involved in a common-law relationship as Most of these people will their first union. eventually marry. The following table illustrates how family structures have changed in Alberta: % Married couples with children Married couples without children Common-law couples with children

1981 54.8 28.0 2.3

2001 44.3 29.8 4.7

Common-law couples without children Single-parent families

4.8 10.1

6.9 14.4

As the table also shows, fewer couples have children (57% ini1981 as compared to 49% in 2001).

Leduc Leduo County otSackwn

-----],-

forming second relationships (marriage or common-law) at an earlier age than in Canadians

PatkandCounty S

previous generations.

eAl.r

Stur"on County r 2

Source: Statistics Canada.2003

.... 4

...

Significantly, more people

starting second relationships are choosing commonlaw over marriage for these second unions. The study found that common-law relationships are

C,,,countooun

are

Perent

generally less stable than marriages.

We know our population is ageing, although Alberta has the youngest population of all the provinces 10% of Albertans are over 65; the average for

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 2003

Page 22

dnonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003:- 2008 S The 2001 Census of Canada has provided some new insights into living arrangements among seniors. The following chart provides statistics for Alberta. Living Arrangements of Seniors (65+) Alberta, 2001 .iill nomi

0 Alone

Fewer are employed (77% of immigrant males vs. 86% for Canadian-born males, 56% vs. 77% for immigrant females). Average incomes for immigrant males and females have been dropping steadily since the early 80s, although both groups showed a significant. improvement in average income in 2001L

3 With spouse only 9 Institutions N With childrenrVothers

*9 -

.10 .:

0 Males

FeaIes

Positive social impacts can be expected from the improving employment and income conditions in Edmonton. This should bring increased financial independence and improved health status for those Edmontonians obtaining stable :employment. The demand for some elements of social services should be reduced.

Poverty

S 0 S

Aboriginal children are much more likely than nonAborigitial children to be living separate from one or both of their parents. Only about 50% of Aboriginal children living in Canada's CMAs live with both

The income gap between rich and poor continues The income gap between rich and poor continues to widen in Edmonton and Alberta.

parents, versus almost 83% 'for non-Aboriginals.

The recent data indicate that the percentage of

Just under 5% of Aboriginal children in large urban areas do not live with even one of their parents, staying instead with a relative or non-relative,

o n 1W incomes decreased Edmonton families liviig from 14% in 1996 to 13% in 1999. However, there are still areas of concern associated with poverty in our city.

Incomes and Incomes Employment Employment and

Statistics Canada recently released the results of a in the distribution of study examining changes 4 wealth in Canada. While the median net worth of between 1984 all Canadian families increased 10%fyugfmle ot e ad19.temda and 1999, the median net worth of young families wAmong ith children.fell by 30%. The proportion of young families with children that%had zero net worth (i.e., their debts exceed their assets) increased from 10% in 1984 to16% in.1999.

income andonditions in Alberta Employment lEmployment and income conditionis in Alberta. shown good improvement over the last few Shave ears, in contrastto much of the est of Canada. years, in contrast to mutch of the rest of Canada. provinces,has shown the the Alberta over steadiest employment steadiest growth growth employment over the the longest longest period. For nine consecutive years employment has grown by more than 2%. grein fby tSome io rav Median fiu-nily incomes are above the Canadian v (earner Slevel in 2001). ($60,025Edmonton recorded a median household of $67,325, and and Calgary. Calgary median income income household of$67,325, was somewhat higher at. $70,110.. The two cities thrd rspetivey aong an -ourt rankd ranked and fourth third resPectively among Canadian CMAs, after Toronto and OttawaGatinean. Gatineau. The situation is not as positive for immigrants who came to. Canada within the last four years or so.

Preparedby: City Forecast Committee,.October2003

families those in which the main income had a university degree or was over 65 years old - enjoyed substantial increases in their net worth over the study period. The median net worth of the 'families in the bottom 30% (ranked by net of the 'families in the, bottom 30% (ranked by net worth) dropped during this period; the median net worth of the families in the top 30% rose by 30%. Put another way, the rich got. richer and the poor got

poorer.

Page. 23

EdmontonSocio-Economic Outlook, 2003 - 2008 Source of Family Income

The Alberta government recently concluded its Low Income Programs Review. While no changes were made to the amounts to be paid to low-income Albertans, the province did commit to improve efficiencies in these programs. A study focusing on family emergency financial resources found that the vast majority of lowincome Canadian families did not have adequate net worth to cope with financial emergencies that might arise. Further, the situation had not improved at all

Alberta, 1998 Abra19

The poverty gap (what an average low income family would need to reach the Low Income Cutoff) for poor families in the City of Edmonton was greater than for poor families in Canada, or in Alberta and even within the Edmonton CMA. Couples with children under age 18 have the largest poverty gap. In 1999, an average low-income nonelderly Edmonton 'family would have needed an additional $8,998 to raise their income to the Low Income Cut-off level.

". 20

0 Sngl.-Parent F....miy

Husband-Wife Far,nily a....Ca.....

The numbers of families and children living in poverty in Edmonton may decrease somewhat during the forecast period, given the historically close association between the unemployment rate and the poverty rate. The number of food bank users in Edmonton has been declining for the last few years, although demand increased again in October and December of 2001. Clientele using Alberta food banks include the highest proportion of employed workers in the country.

In 2000, Edmonton's two-parent families had an average total income of $75,699. The single-parent family total income averaged $39,688. Between 1991 and 2001, the proportion of single-parent families in the City, increased from 16% to 22%.

Average Monthly Food Bank Use Edmonton mm m ononlIlll 3s

In 1999, thirty-six percent of Edmonton CMA's

single-parent families had incomes below the Low Income Cut-off, compared to Alberta's 29% and Canada's 37%.

Other

-0

for these families since the mid-80s, even though

their average age had increased and they had had several years to accumulate resources.

EIGovernment

80 ]dEmployment

Persons

30 a25

OHampers

.10

5 1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998 1999 2000

2001

Source: Edmonton Gleaners Association

Health New information from the 2001 Census of Canada has shed much-needed light on the issue of citizens with disabilities. As a follow-up to the 2001 Census, Statistics Canada conducted a large survey of Canadians who

Preparedby: City ForecastComminittee, October2003

Page 24

Edmonton Socio-Economic Oiilook,'2003 -"2008 0 had indicated on the census thatthey had some form of disability. For Canada as a whole, 12% of the population' reported having activity limitations. Alberta was very close to the national average, at 12.5%; other provinces ranged from 8% to 17%.

Disability Rates by Age

0Canada,

2001

uuuull

*mM

ill

100 "80

Social Services Most families are less dependent on variousfors Mostfamilies are less dependent on variousforms of government social programs for financial support than they have been in recentyears.

The

following table illustrates the reduced dependence of most Edmontonians on the Employment Insurance and Social Assistance programs between 1996 and 1998. Receiving Benefits 1996 1998

â&#x20AC;˘%

o lHusband-Wife Families Insurance Social Assistance Lone-Parent Families

.40o 2Employment 2o

1 01

soc,:S,.c. ...

,osn ,

Is to 64

65 to 74

Employment

75 and over

Insurance

Social Assistance

Non-Family Persons Insurance Employment Social Assistance

rate As shown in the chart above, the..disability .. sharply rises and increases significantly with age,

21.0 9.2

16.8 8.8

37.2

15.2

13.2 31.6

10.3 22.8

23.5

8;9 23.

22.8

Social Assistance

for the elderly (over 75). This adds further impetus to the concerns discussed earlier about rising health costs associated with our aging population. Females 0

are more likely to report being disabled (13.3%) than are males: (11.5%), except in the under 15 age

Average.Monthl Child elfare Caseloads Ma Alberta and Alberta Region and Capital Region owe Capital Ma'MMowe

uun

iill

MaMowweccapgil Reion

r g oup.

Survey Health Community Canadian The (2000/200i) found that Aboriginal people living outside reserves in cities and towns across Canada were generally in poorer health than the nonAboriginal population. Twenty percent of the Aboriginal people surveyed reported their health care needs were not fully met, compared to 13% for non-Aboriginals. Aboriginals are 1.5 times more likely to report they are in poor health than non-Aboriginals, even when differences in socio-econornic standing are taken into account, This difference held true at all income levels. Aboriginal persons are also 1:5 .times more likely to report chronic health conditions and to report recent problems with depression.

1999 2000 Source:Ma'Mows CapitalRegion Children's Services Authority

2001

Government transfers (including E.I., Old Age. C.P.P., social Security/Income Supplements, assistance, etc.) contributed 11% of the. total community income of Edmonton in. 1998. This compares to a high of 15% in Sudbury and a low of 6% in Halton, Ontario. The average for Canada is 13%. Edmonton is inore or less in the middle of the range for the 18 cities reporting. Although child welfare caseloads in the Edmonton area. are increasing, they are not rising as fast as for

Not including Yukon. Northwest Territories and Nunavut

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 2003

the province as a whole.

Page 25

S Edmonton Soci -Economic Outlook, 2003 - 2008

collisions reached a five-year high during 2002, increasing by 8%.

Housing and Homelessness

Violent Crimes and Property Crimes

The shortage of affordable housing in Edmonton remains at an acute level.

Edmonton WWWWWWiilll_

An analysis done in February 2003 identified a

number of factors combining to worsen the already

::,000

o9 ,000__

poor rental and low-income housing situation in

Property crime

ate _

ate l

Violent Crime _

.7.000

. 5000

Edmonton.

The construction of rental housing has been slow. 01998 eroded through As well, the existing stock has been demolition or the conversion to condominiums

6,500 units were lost between 1997 and 2000. A growing population, particularly the influx, of outof-province workers has boosted demands and rental rates have risen. Because landlords have a greater choice in tenants, many low-income and special needs households have been unable to find suitable or affordable housing. The waiting lists for social housing have increased from about 300 to 4,300 households over the past five years.

4,000

c- 3,000 2,000 --

a t,.o

-2000

1999

1999 Source:EdmontonPollee

2001

2002

Servico;2002

Child Abuse and Family.Disputes Edmonton

m m 0

count in September 2000; almost two-thirds of those

ChildAb s.

Fmi

llu

Dip. us

"__ S 0 --

1,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: Edmonton PoliceService,2002

Crim e

2002

2001

2000

Overall, violent crime was down in Edmonton by 7% in comparison with 2001. Robberies reversed a four-year upward trend to decline by 5%. Youth crime (ages 12 to 17) declined by 11%. This reduction includes the number of youth offenses for violent, property and traffic crimes.

The total number of homeless persons counted in October 2002 (1,915) was up 65% from the previous counted were absolute homeless, meaning that they had no pennanent place to reside. The number of homeless children under 15 more than doubled between 1999 (112) and 2002 (267).

1999

2000

2001

2002

was incorrect due to a dataerror. Note:In previousreports, this graph

Total reported criminal activity increasedby 4% in Edmonton in 2002.

Recreation and Leisure

The property crimes rose by 11%, with thefts from autos continuing an upward trend with an increase of 20% during the year. Motor vehicle thefts continued a four-year trend, increasing by 7% and accounted for 16% of all property crimes. Break and enter offences reversed a four-year declining trend to increase by 13%. While residential breakins remained stable in comparison with 2001 rates, business break-ins increased by 28%.Traffic

The popular trends in recreationalpursuits reflect the aging of the population, as well as people's complex and busy lifestyles. The first in a proposed regular series of telephonebased recreation and leisure surveys was conducted with Edichnontonians in the fall of 2002. The Edmonton survey was designed to be closely compatible with the Alberta General Recreation

October by:2003 City Forecast Cmmittee,

Preparedby:

City

ForecastCommittee, October.2003

Page 26

page 260

S 0

0Pr

0 1i0n t on0So 0i- Co-omic

S i

Survey, which has been done approxiinately every four years since the early 1980s. The following table compares household participation rates for Edmontonians versus Albertans for the most commonly cited recreational and leisure activities, There are. some interesting contrasts. Edmontonians seem to be somewhat less involved in active of personal pursuits, with the exception fitness/aerobics, and showed a higher household participation rate in passive activities such as spectator' events, playing computer games and picnicking. Unfortunately, the Alberta survey does not ask about the two most common activities-

Oitlook, 2003 - 2008 Edmontonians also said that theactivities they took part in most often were watching TV, walking, reading and ice hockey. Their favourite activities and reading, swimming were walking, crafts/hobbies. The reasons Edmontonians cite for participating in recreation and leisure activities show almost the identical pattern seen in recent years from the Alberta Recreation Survey.

Why do Edmontonians Participate in Recreation/Leisure Activities?

Swatching television and reading. Edmontonians also

N111

visit museums and galleries and participate in

% of Respondents Identifying Reason

gardening activities much less than do Albertans

overall.

s..........,.,....

Forpa... For physioalheol/IexorolIa

than other Albertans are consistent with research conducted in 1999 by the Alberta Centre for Well-

T...hngts.or

so:,Ed

ALBERTA

(2002)

(2000)

Watching.TV/videos Reading Walking/hiking Crafts/hobbies Attend eventsas spectator

98.6 94.2 86.1 75.3 74.4

not asked not asked 91.3 67.9 62.3

Attend festivals

64.4

59.6

Play computer games

64.2

53.9

Gardening

58.8

74.9

Personal fitness/aerobics Swimnming Bicycling Attend courses Visit museums/gal.leries Picnic Run/jog

55.4 55.1

35.9 55.0

53.0 43.9. 45.8 47.3 39.6

59.9 46.8 71.5 35.7 32.8

Golf

37.6

46.6

Performing arts. Weight training

37.6 37.3

35.7 33.8

v.th 1-4

To*nontur.**

In comparison, 56% of Calgarians said they were

EDMONTON

Tobe

residents were physically active on a regular basis.

% of Households That Participate

or..rov..u.tnodgo,0

Being. This research found that 48% of Edmonton exercising regularly. Almost 59% of Edmontonians agreed that they were not getting as much exercise as they needed.

.........

These indications that Edmontonians are less active

A.Gs.o&LS1.*SV2

There are some differences between the barriers to participation cited by Echdnontonians and those revealed in the Alberta survey. In the Edmonton survey, time pressures came out as the top factor, but in the Alberta survey respondents were asked separately about work and family comniitments.

What are the Barriers to Recreation/Leisure Participation for Edmontonians ?

IMnWu

Isoatsten

""...

lll

' .

Cqc.,,,

, . . I

i .

o-oA

L,,- &.sa

.,.

The EdmontOn Recreation & Leisure Survey also asked Edmontonians about their own leisure time,

Preparedby: City ForecastCommnittee, October 2003

Page. 27

Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 sEdmontn

and time stresses affecting their lives. A huge majority (78.9%) reported they sometimes or always felt under pressure in completing their daily tasks; 44.3% felt. they had less leisure time available to them than they did two years ago. Perhaps in response to these time pressures, 67.4% of Edmontonians said they placed a higher value on their leisure time than on their work time. A recent analysis of time pressures using data from the 1998 General Social Survey found that Canadians with high incomes are more likely to feel under time pressures than those with lower incomes. The study went on to state that "spending time with the family" was the activity most likely to be affected by the scarcity of time. People are more and more finding that they are using their weekends, traditionally the escape from day-to-day time pressures, to attend to their unpaid and paid work. Another recent analysis by Statistics Canada, of 1986, 1992 and 1998 data, showed Canadians are spending an increasing part of their day on leisure activities, but are also spending more timne on work (including paid, unpaid work and education). They are making this extra time by spending less time on personal care activities such as eating, sleeping, grooming and related .tasks. Women have less leisure time than men, and spend slightly more of their day on personal care activities and on unpaid work (housework, caring for children or parents, volunteering, etc). Men were found to be spending an increasing amount of time on unpaid work over the study period. Following retirement, leisure time takes up more of people's time, but women still spend a significantly greater amount of time on unpaid work than men.

2008

The 2002 Edmonton Recreation & Leisure Survey found that only 33% of Edmontonians were currently engaged in volunteer activities. Seniors have long constituted the core of the dedicated volunteers. With the aging of our population, fewer of them may be able to maintain this corunitment. The increasing time stresses reported earlier have also undoubtedly forced some Edmontonians to give up their volunteer involvement in the face of growing work and home commitments.

Gaming Albertans are spending more on gamning, and the provincial government is becoming more dependent on revenues from gamining. The recent studies by Statistics Canada and the Canada West Foundation have unveiled new statistics on the increase in most forms of gambling in Alberta (betting on horse racing has declined since the early 1990s). While the figures in the two reports do not agree, the overall trends indicate that Albertans are gambling more (the Statistics Canada report says the per capita annual gambling expenditures by Albertans 18 and over went from $120 in 1992 to $526 in 2000, a close second to Gambling Manitoba among the provinces). revenues have become increasingly important to the provincial finances; the share of total provincial government revenue from gambling rose from 1.6% to 6.3% over the same period (Statistics Canada).

Volunteerism Edmontonians are not as involved in volunteer activities as they have been in the past. In 1999, the Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook reported that Albertans were leading the country in active volunteer work. At that time just over 40% of Albertans volunteered their time, compared to the national rate of 31%.

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October 2003

Page 28

Edmonn SociO

omic Outlook, 003 -2008

APPENDIX I - Edmonton Employment by Industry Employment by Industry - Edmonton C.M.A. ____ ____

____

Industry Total Goods-Producing Sector Agriculture Forestry, Fishing, Mning, Oil & Gas Utilities

1988(000 1988 1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

410

416

424

428

429

422

429

441

466

475

483

489

505

522

100

110

101

109

120

10.

Construction

.28

29.

NManufacturing

.44

328

332

344

348

346

341

345

347

350

370

375

373

388

396

402

Trade

85.

Transportation and Warehousing

22,

SFinance, hInsurance, Real Estate and Leasing

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

14.

Educational Services

Health Care and Social Assistance

Information, Culture and Recreation

Accormdation and Food Services

.32

.37

OtherServices

20.

Public Adrrinistration

33.

Services- Producing Sector

Managerrent of Cornpanies & Adrrinistrative.& Other Support Services

Source: Statistics Canada

Preparedby: City ForecastCoimmilee October 2003

Page 29

Emno

mo~4mic

Outlook 2003 - 2008

APPENDIX II- Edmonton Gross Domestic Product by Industry Real Gross Domestic Product at Basic Prices by Industry ) Millions of Chained (1997) Dollars 1. ($M Ilions) Industry Agriculture Forestry, Fishing, Mning, Oil01 & Gas VManufacturing Construction Trahsportation and Warehousing Utilities Trade RFinance, Insurance, lal Estate and Leasing Business Service (3) Riblic Adrrinistration Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Accornodation and Food Services Other Services (4) GDP at Factor Cost dmonton Growth Rate (%) Alberta Growth Rate (%)

1988 41 .2,068 2,188 1,831 1,941 712 2,447

1989 69 2,070 2,196 1,756 1,873 1,066 2,435

1990 88 1,500 2,405 1,917 2,102 794 2,530

1991 79 1,781 2,564 1,799 2,001 734 2,442

1992 62 1,796 2,650 1,560 1,966 948 2,416

1993 104 1,532 2,779 1,681 1,841 963 2,609

1994 93 2,111 3,384 1,626 1,579 935 2,911

1995 297 2,755 3,357 1,667 1,633 811 2,743

1996 180 2,836 3,280 1,884 1,654 996 2,782

1997 233 3,187 4,001 1,972 1,856 895 3,333

1998 245 3,464 3,749 2,274 1,763 882 3,235

1999 244 2,618 4,463 2,270 1,658 952 3,182

2000 196 2,606 3,873 2,292 2,009 1,228 3,665

2001 98 2,407 4,075 2,842 1,980 933 3,860

4,179 2,135 1,839 1,464 1,469 731 856

4,316 2,201 1,970 1,429 1,648 650 846

4,433 2,178 2,006 1,307 1,643 774 884

4,405 2,054 1,988 1,351 1,886 677 882

4,723 2,267 1,963 1,520 1,756 668 914

4,649 1,894 1,877 1,413 1,648 714 984

5,119 2,003 1,971 1,266 1,857 662 931

4,994 1,852 1,732 1,384 1,667 744 1,032

4,619 1,777 1,744 1,288 1,708 748 984

5,658 1,946 1,828 1,366 1,494 807 1,146

6,739 2,086 1,715 1,297 1,689 778 1,173

6,127 2,055 1,930 1,428 1,707 823 1,145

6,822 2,140 1,916 1,421 1,583 958 1,235

7,140 2,125 2,141 1,640 1,698 1,017 1,116

23,901

24,526

24,561

24,645

25,209

24,687

26,448

26,669 26,480

29,721

31,089

30,602

31,946

33,072

3.52

2.61

0.15

0.34

2.29

(2.07)

7.14

0.83

(0.71)

12.24

4.61

(1.57)

4.39

3.52

5.11

1.16

2.68

1.65

0.68

5.31

7.65

3.79

1.55

6.69

4.98

(1.69)

8.48

3.88

(1) GDPat Market Rices is obtained by adding hIndirect Taxes Less Subsidies on Roducts (2) Relirrinary Estirates - Subject to Revision (3) This includes: Rofessional, Scientific and Technical Services & Managerrent of Corrpanies and Adninistrative and Other Support Services (4) This includes: Other Services & Inforration, Culture and Recreation

Preparedby: City ForecastCommittee, October2003

Page 30

Edmonton Socio-Economic Outlook, 2003 - 2008

Appendix III Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area

A '

LEA

0 City -

Town *

Secondary Highwayunty

BONACCORD A

Railway

Village

REDWATER

Su geon

Primary Highway

County Boundary

ONS 15

22A

S Urban

Service Area Boundary

372

2a 3V

TCH

ot215 DM

Ppe STONY

a -

SHERI 100D

60 byCymCoum2ty SPUCI GROVEJ

PARK

-14

Parkland

County Sket8chewan

2 River

DEVON

CALMAR_

19BEAUMONT

Se"Pt

6 LEDUC

Te Warburg

Leduc Co unty 2

.waN

ST.

Enwi 1abamun

are wr.p Lae

M DERO a

Prepared by: City ForecastCommittee, October 2003