April 11-13, 2011 Cairo Marriott Hotel, Egypt
Australian Fertilizers Prospects ad Issues
Mr. Nick Drew Executive Manager, FIFA
Australia
5/2/2011
Australia Nick Drew Executive Manager Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
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Size and Value 2002-2010 • 4 to 6 Mt, Av 5.1 Mt – Urea 1 to 1.3 1 3 Mt, Mt Av 1.2Mt 1 2Mt – MAP/DAP 1 to 1.5 Mt, Av 1.3Mt – Single Super 0.5 to 1.3 Mt, Av 1.0Mt
• ~$3 billion sales $15 billion effect on agricultural • >$15 production • >$40 billion contribution to Australian economy Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Seasonal Demand
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
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FIFA and Public Policy • All manufacturers, bulk importers and major distributors are members members. • A number of significant public policy issues with potential to disrupt the industry. • Early positive involvement of the industry will lead to improved p outcomes and forewarning.
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Environment • N and P in Water • QLD, QLD WA Coastal Plain • Many other areas • Greenhouse emissions • Abatement and sequestration credits for agriculture – Carbon Farming • Emissions Trading • NOx 16% of agricultural emissions Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
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Security - Contaminants
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Quarantine • No organic contamination • No treatment options for finished product • Protocols developed to remove risk at source – Engineering, procedures, sampling, to AQIS approval pp – Third party annual audit, including AQIS audit every three years
• Risk status 1 (low) to 3 (high) Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
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Total Tonnage by Risk Level 100% 90% 80% 70% 60%
Multiple Processing
50%
Level 3
40%
Level 2 Level 1
30% 20% 10% 0% 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Champions • • • • • • • •
Asean Bintulu KAFCO SABIC PIC GPIC Mosaic, Riverview (Tampa)) M i Ri i (T Profertil QAFCO Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
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Supply • Phosphate Rock – Morocco – Togo – China
• MAP/DAP – Australia ((42%)) – USA – Morocco – China Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Supply • Urea – – – – – – – – –
Australia (18% of total) Qatar Saudi Arabia Kuwait Bahrain Bangladesh Malaysia Argentina China
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
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Supply • Potash – USA – Canada – Russia – Jordan – Germany – Israel
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Trends? 1,200
1 000 1,000
N
P
K
t 000's
800
600
400
200
0 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
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Farm vol. ď‚ş Nutrient vol. Fertilizer vs. Farm Production Volume
N+P+K 000 0t / Volume Index
1 800 1,800 1,600
NPK
VI
1,400 1,200 1 000 1,000 800 600 1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Crop Area Growth 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 Crop Area
1
Cattle No. 0.8
Sheep No
0.6 0.4 0.2
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
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Potential for Growth (FAO 2003)
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Rainfall
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
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Crop Regions Rainfall (ABARES 2010)
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
East V West (ABARES 2010)
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
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Current Situation - Agronomic • Water storages full – Return of cotton, cotton rice and other irrigated crops.
• Soil profiles full – Confidence for large winter crop planting (Eastern Australia) – WA dry and dependent on planting rainfall
• Continuing productivity growth – GM and Precision Agriculture Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Current Situation - Economic • 2010 Winter crop production up 22% to 43Mt – WA down – Weather damage
• Eastern State confidence recovers • Summer crop area 2011 up 67% to 1.5M Ha
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
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Australia - Prospects • • • • • •
Global trader Modern flexible agriculture Steady productivity growth Capacity to respond Fast response to economic signals F tili Fertilizer a kkey d determinant t i t off production d ti levels – and up to 30% of crop costs • Seasonal factors critical Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Key Economic Factors • Cereal prices – also pulses and canola • Fertilizer prices (Up to 30% of grain production costs) • Longer term recovery in animal numbers if prices remain high • Forecast? – Volatility seems certain – Australia responds to international prices for grain and fertilizer Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
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Australian New Production • Legend - North QLD 72Mt @17% P2O5 • Minemakers – Wonarah NT 1,258Mt 1 258Mt @ 12% P2O5 • Perdaman - Collie Urea 2Mt pa 2014 • Latrobe Fertilisers – Urea 1.5Mt pa
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Opportunities • FIFA Membership – GPIC – QAFCO
• Australian Fertilizer Industry Conference 2013 • The Fertilizer Newsletter
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
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Thank You www.fifa.asn.au nick.drew@fifa.asn.au +61 411 410 903 Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
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