18th AFA Int’l Annual Fertilizer Forum & Exhibition Feb., 7-9-2012, Sharm El-Sheikh , Egypt Maritim Jolie Ville Hotel
Water Challenges with Special Focus on the Arab Region
Dr. Mahmoud Abu Zeid Chairman, Arab Water Council Egypt
Water Challenges With Special Focus on the Arab Region Prof. Dr. Mahmoud Abu-Zeid President , Arab Water Council 18th AFA Annual Forum & Exhibition (Challenges in Volatile Fertilizer Markets) Feb. 7-9, 2012 Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt
Presentation Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
World Water Challenges Water , Energy and Food Nexus Climate Change and Impacts on Water Arab Water Demand Water Management in Arab Region
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1.World Water Challenges • • • • • • •
Water scarcity Water quality deterioration Fragmentation of water management Decline of financial resources Lack of awareness by decision-makers Endangering world peace and security Climate change 1
World Water Resources
Oceans 97.5 %
Glaciers, Snow & PermaFrost 1.725 %
Ground Water 0.075 %
Lakes, Swamps & Rivers 0.25 %
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2
Freshwater Available per capita
1950 - 2050
1950
2025
2000
12,050 m3
7, 310 m3
5,120 m3
2050 4,580 m3
3
Decline in per capita water share worldwide and in some regions 16
Africa
14 12 10 8
WORLD
6
Asia
4 2
Middle East & North Africa
1000
0
1960
1990
500
2025 4
3
Water Scarcity Global Water Status in 100 years
2000
1950
2025
2050
Countries suffering from water poverty
5
Total Water for Human Uses Municipal Industrial Irrigation
6000
4800
Cubic km
5000
5300
3800 4000
4000
2900
3000
2000
2000 1000 0
1961
1975
1994
2000
2025
2050 6
4
Worldwide population increase and its relation to water billions 14
It is expected that population becomes tripled and water demand becomes 6-fold by year 2050
12
High variant
10
Medium variant Low variant
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7.6 billions
6
2025
4 2
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 7
Water Quality Deterioration Marginal-quality Water and Soil Resources Irrigation water use in four MENA countries
• Recent research and practices have demonstrated that effective utilization of marginal-quality soil and water resources in dry areas can improve the agricultural productivity per unit area and livelihood resilience of the farming communities. 8
Irrigation water use
• Marginal-quality water and soil resources are already used, but productivity in most cases is low
Freshwater
Marginal water
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2. Water , Energy and Food Nexus The Arab region imports 50% of its water through food imports. Agriculture sector accounts for an average of 85% of water use. Water for energy currently amounts to about 8% of global water withdrawals (up to 45% in industrialized countries). 9
Renewable energies are expected to expand as a key component of the green economy. The EU Renewable Energy Directive foresees 20% more renewable energies by 2020. In the US in 2010 already 35% of corn crop were used for ethanol.
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6
The water consequences of a replacement scenario of transportation fuel by biodiesel suggests that about 30 million barrels of ethanol and 23 million barrels of biodiesel would be required per day. The feedback for a 10% biofuel target only for the ethanol in this scenario would already require an additional 600 billion cubic meters of water per year. Electricity production is the fastest growing form of energy use, estimated to increase by 87% by 2035, with almost one third of that coming from China alone. 11
Hydropower production - while already providing 15% of global electricity generation- is still far below its economically and technically feasible potential in many regions. About 50% more primary energy has to be made available by 2035. Groundwater is generally more energy intensive than surface water – up to 40% of total energy use in some countries for pumping groundwater. 12
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Pumping from greater depth increases energy demand exponentially – by a factor of 80 when going from 35 to 120 m depth. Desalination capacity currently stands at 45 MCM per day, more than half of which is installed in the MENA region. Water can currently be desalinated at about 0.25 m³ per KWH.
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Production is the largest use of water, responsible for 8090% of consumptive blue water use, plus a large fraction of green water use by terrestrial ecosystem. A rule of thumb suggests that it takes about one liter of water to produce one calorie of food energy. Meat-eaters consume the equivalent of about 5000 liters of water a day compared to the 1000 – 2000 liters used by people on vegetation diets. Food supply is responsible for around 30% of total global energy demand.
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8
IPCC Technical Paper VI
3. Climate Change and Impacts on Water • The recent observations of IPCC reveal that many dry areas are expected to become drier • Higher water temperatures and changes in floods and droughts are projected to affect water quality and exacerbate many forms of water pollution • Rising seawater levels and seawater intrusion are expected to affect water quality negatively in coastal areas. 15
Drivers of Global Change Increasing population Land cover/use change Increasing greenhouse gases
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9
Consequences of Global Climate Change
• • • • • • •
Greater and more intense rainfall Higher temperatures Greater droughts River bank erosion Rising sea levels More intense cyclones Salt water intrusions
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18
10
This figure relates temperature changes and sea level rise for 6 different global models
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Climate Change in Mediterranean , North Africa and the Middle East countries • By the 2050s North Africa and some parts of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, Jordan and Palestine are expected to have 20 to 25% less rainfall than the present mean values. • This decrease in rainfall is accompanied by a temperature rise in those areas between 2°C and 2.75°C . For the same period, the temperature in the coastal areas will rise by about 1.5°C. 20
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Delta Region of Egypt
Risks through sea level rise on the costal zone, which is already subsiding at approximately 3-5mm/year around the Nile delta.
Low lying Nile delta region, which constitutes the main agricultural land of Egypt and hosts most of the population, industrial activities and commercial centers, is highly vulnerable to various impacts of climate change
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Delta Region (Cont.) Rising sea level would destroy weak parts of the sand belt, which is essential for the protection of lagoons and the lowlying reclaimed lands in the Nile delta of Egypt (Mediterranean Sea). One third of Egypt's fish catches are made in the lagoons. Sea level rise would change the water quality and affect most fresh water fish. Valuable agricultural land would be inundated.
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12
(Cont.) Sea level rise and Land Subsidence Rates in the Nile Delta for the past 3 decades Region
Alexandria (West Delta)
Al-Burullus (Middle Delta)
Port Said (East Delta)
SLR (mm/yr)
1.6
2.3
5.3
Subsidence (mm/yr)
0.4
1.1
3.35
Assumption: Same increase rate of air temperature from IPCC 2007 of 0.6 degrees C/yr.
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(Cont.)
Climate Change & Sea Water Rise
Nile Delta - Current Situation 24
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(Cont.)
Climate Change & Sea Water Rise
Nile Delta – 1 Metre Sea Level Rise 25
Adaptations options for coping with climate variability Evidence of increased climate variability is incontestable and the severity of that variability demands urgent response from water managers. Adaptation options to climate variability include: – technological elements of water infrastructures (storage reservoirs, boreholes, recharge wells and sand wells); – boosting the yield of available resources (rain water harvesting, water recycling/reuse, desalination); – adaptation benefits enormously from improved forecasting and climate modelling; – modification of land use patterns, crop selection and tillage practices. 26
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4. Arab Water The Arab region is one of driest regions in the world. The region contains 5% of the world population with 1% of its water resources. 18 out of 22 countries suffer from scarcity. 8 have less than an average of 200 m³ per capita, and this average could drop to less than 100 m³ in the next decade.
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Water Scarcity and Population Pressure “The least per capita share in the World” Global Shares of Renewable Water Resources (2000) Per Capita Share (cu m/yr)
40000
35808
35000 30000 25000 20000 15000
21622 16368 10867
10000
7243
5000
4980
4270
3681
3518 1909
1060
177
G C C
Af Ce ri c nt a ra lE ur op C e en tra S. lA & Ea si a st er n As ia N ea rE as Ar t ab R eg io n
W or ld
W .&
So ut he rn
Am Ea er st ic er a n N Eu o r rth C op .A er e m n Am er ic er a ic & a Ca rib be an
0
GCC = Gulf Cooperation Council 28
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Features of Water Scarcity With population expected to grow from around 300 million today to around 500 million in 2050, per capita availability is expected to halve by 2050 Rapidly growing population capitaShares share Arab Region Populationand & diminishing Per Capitaper Water 4500 4000
Population (Million)
600
3500
500
3000
400
2500
300
2000 1500
200
1000
100
500
Population IRWR= Internal Renewable Water Resources
Share from IRWR
2060
2040
2020
2000
1980
1960
0 1940
0
Water Share (cu.m/cap/yr)
700
Share from ARWR
ARWR= Actual (total) Renewable Water Resources
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5. Demand Water Management in Arab Region Irrigation Water Savings • • • • • •
Land leveling Modern farm irrigation systems Canal lining Proper irrigation scheduling Low water consumption crops Improved drainage 30
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Domestic Water Savings • •
• • •
20% - 50% losses in the water distribution systems in major Mediterranean cities Household water-saving devices (15% of domestic use) -- low flow showerheads (less than 2.5 gallons per minute) -- toilet displacement devices (4.2 gallons per day/device savings) -- faucet aerators (1.5 gallons per day/device water savings) Metering (15% - 40%) High efficiency washing machines (37% savings) Landscape water conservation programs (20% savings) -- moisture sensors -- rain shut-off switches 31
Balancing the water demand with water supply: virtual water concept
Ragab and Hamdy, 2008
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Ragab and Hamdy, 2008
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Actions for Water Demand Management Recycle and reuse of water and wastewater for irrigation without endangering soil and water quality, human health or habitat biodiversity.
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We all pay for every thing .. There is No free lunch
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Valuation of water What is WATER ??? • • • •
An economic good A social service A cultural heritage An environmental asset
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THANK YOU
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