18th AFA Int’l Annual Fertilizer Forum & Exhibition Feb., 7-9-2012, Sharm El-Sheikh , Egypt Maritim Jolie Ville Hotel
Global Supply and Demand Outlook for Fertilizers and Raw Materials
Mr. Patrick Heffer, Director Agriculture Services, IFA France
18/02/2012
Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials Patrick Heffer and Michel Prud’homme
18th AFA International Annual Fertilizers Forum & Exhibition 7-9 February 2012, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt
Global Economic and Agricultural Context
1
18/02/2012
World GDP growth (%) 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
World
- 0.7
+5.2
+3.8
+3.3
+3.9
Advanced
- 3.7
+3.2
+1.6
+1.2
+1.9
USA
- 3.5
+3.0
+1.8
+1.8
+2.2
EU-27
- 4.2
+1.9
+1.6
- 0.5
+0.8
Emerging
+2.8
+7.3
+6.2
+5.4
+5.9
China
+9.2
+10.4
+9.2
+8.2
+8.8
India
+6.8
+9.9
+7.4
+7.0
+7.3
Brazil
- 0.6
+7.5
+2.9
+3.0
+4.0
Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
| Source: IMF (Jan 2012)
World cereal and oilseed production Wheat
Coarse Grains
Rice (milled)
Oilseeds
Total
2008
683
1 110
448
396
2 637
2009
685
1 116
441
444
2 686
2010 (e)
652
1 097
450
455
2 654
-4.8%
-1.7%
+2.0%
+2.5%
-1.2%
692
1 146
461
457
2 756
+6.1%
+4.5%
+2.4%
+0.6%
+3.8%
*
Change 2011 (f) Change
Million tonnes
Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
| Source: USDA (Jan 2012)
2
18/02/2012
World cereal production and utilization Million tonnes
2,400 Production
Utilization
Balance forecast at the end of the 2011/12 campaign:
2,300 2,200
FAO: +12 Mt USDA: +9 Mt
2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800
Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials | Source: FAO (Dec 2011) and USDA (Jan 2012)
World cereal stocks-to-use ratio Anticipated ending stocks evolution in 2011/12 WORLD • +5% for wheat • -5% for coarse grains • +7% for rice MAJORS EXPORTERS • +5% for wheat • -9% for coarse grains (-12% already in 2010/11) • +7% for rice
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5%
Total
Wheat
Coarse Grains
Rice
0%
Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
| Source: FAO (Dec 2011)
3
18/02/2012
Relative evolution of agricultural commodity prices Relative price evolution from January 2006 to October 2011 400
Wheat
Maize
Rice
Soybean
Palm Oil
Cotton
Sugar
350 300
MAIZE
250 200 150 100 50
Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
| Source: Financial Times and IMF
Global Fertilizer Demand, Supply and Supply/Demand Balances
4
18/02/2012
Global fertilizer demand Short-term forecasts Change
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
N
+2.6%
+3.1%
+1.7%
P2O5
+8.8%
+1.0%
+3.0%
K2O
+17.7%
+5.7%
+3.3%
Total
+6.2%
+3.0%
+2.3%
Mt nutrients
24
28
29
30
23
39
34
37
41
41
42
101
98
102
105
108
110
26
27
29
37
38
91
97
K2O P2O5 N
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
| Source: IFA Agriculture
2011/12 vs. 2007/08 N P2O5 K2O East Asia South Asia North America Lat. Am. & Carib. W. & C. Europe E. Eur. & C. Asia West Asia Africa Oceania
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Mt nutrients Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
| Source: IFA Agriculture
5
18/02/2012
Global nutrient use 2008 - 2011 Mt nutrients
200
160
157 150
181
177
170
+ 4%
Fertilizer use
100
54
0 2008
+ 9%
Non-fertilizer use 2009
51
50
46
34
50
2010
2011
Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
2012 | Source: IFA PIT Committee, 2011
Global nutrient deliveries 2008 - 2011 Mt nutrients
180
Home deliveries
Trade
+ 6%
150 120 90 60
+ 3%
30 -
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
2010
2011
| Source: IFA PIT Committee, 2011
6
18/02/2012
Global nutrient production, 2005 – 2011
+
Mt product
200
5
% in 2011
150
Ammonia
163 Mt + 4%
Urea
155 Mt + 5%
Phosphate rock Rock 191 Mt + 5% 100 50 0
Phosphoric acid
42 Mt + 6%
DAP
33 Mt - 1%
Potash
56 Mt + 5%
Sulphur
51 Mt + 3%
2005 to 2011
Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
| Source: IFA PIT Committee, 2011
Global nutrient trade, 2005 – 2011
+
Mt product
50 40 30
% in 2011 Ammonia
20 Mt + 4%
Urea
39 Mt - 3%
Phosphate rock Rock 30 Mt Phosphoric acid
20 10 0
2
0%
5 Mt - 4%
DAP
14 Mt - 14%
Potash
44 Mt + 2%
Sulphur
28 Mt - 8%
2005 to 2011
Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
| Source: IFA PIT Committee, 2011
7
18/02/2012
World seaborne ammonia trade outlook Mt ammonia West of Suez
25
East of Suez
Demand
20 15
16
15
2008
2009
17
18
2010
2011
19
10 5 0
Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
2012
| Source: IFA PIT Committee, 2011
World urea capacity changes 2010 2011 2012
180Mt 184Mt 198Mt
OCEANIA EAST ASIA SOUTH ASIA WEST ASIA AFRICA
2010
LATIN AMERICA
2010-11
2011-12
NORTH AMERICA EECA CENTRAL EUROPE WEST EUROPE 0
20
40
60
80
100
Mt urea Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
| Source: IFA PIT Committee, 2011
8
18/02/2012
World phosphoric acid capacity changes 2010 2011 2012
50Mt
52Mt
OCEANIA EAST ASIA SOUTH ASIA WEST ASIA AFRICA LATIN AMERICA NORTH AMERICA EECA CENTRAL EUROPE WEST EUROPE -5
0
5
54Mt
2010
2010-11
10
15
2011-12
20
25
Mt P2O5 Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
| Source: IFA PIT Committee, 2011
World potassium capacity changes 2010 2011 2012
42Mt
45Mt
East Asia
2010
47Mt
2010-11
2011-12
West Asia Latin America North America EECA West Europe 0
5
10
15
20
Mt K2O Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
| Source: IFA PIT Committee, 2011
9
18/02/2012
Supply/demand balances 2008 – 2012e Supply 134
130
126 126
125
137 134
129
Demand
142 137
Mt nitrogen N
143 142
147
156 150
43
Mt phosphoric acid P2O5 169
150
42
39
35
33
46
44
42
40
39
159
164
155
28
Mt urea
33
34
2011e
2012e
31
25
40
39
37
35
35
Mt potash K2O 2008
2009
2010
Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
| Source: IFA PIT Committee, 2011
Global nutrient supply 2005 – 2012e Mt nutrient 300
Total capacity +5%
250
Global sales of potash may expand 4% to 58 Mt MOP
200
Global sales of processed phosphates may reach 69 Mt products, growing 7% over 2011
150 100
Global sales of urea may grow 5% over 2011, to 163 Mt.
50 -
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
| Source: IFA PIT Committee, 2011
10
18/02/2012
World nutrient demand and supply trends
2012 • Strong agricultural market fundamentals • Nutrient demand has fully recovered for all macronutrients • Demand growth remains subject to uncertain world economic conditions and crop prices • Rising supply: higher production and trade for most products • Improving operating rates over effective capacity • Increasing supply from massive investments since 2008 • Likely project slippage out of 2012, but further capacity expansions seen in 2013 • Potential tightness in supply during the first half of 2012, due to the timing of start-up, ramp-up of new capacity and potential trade measures • Rising feedstock costs • Market uncertainties in China and India Global supply and demand outlook for fertilizers and raw materials
11