18th AFA Int’l Annual Fertilizer Forum & Exhibition Feb., 7-9-2012, Sharm El-Sheikh , Egypt Maritim Jolie Ville Hotel
CIS Fertilizer Export Outlook
Mr. Eugene Bilichenko, Senior Analyst of Global Markets , Chem Curier Ukraine
2/18/2012
CIS Fertilizer Export Outlook Chem-Courier Eugene Bilichenko Senior Analyst of Global Market — Fertilizers and Inorganic Chemistry
CIS in the World:
Nitrogen
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2/18/2012
Ammonia Rus, Ukr 21%
Asia 9% Europe 9%
Urea Rus, Ukr, Bel 21%
17,9 mmt
China 19%
37,5 mmt
others 13%
Europe 8%
others 15% L. America 32% M. East 16%
M. East 37%
Source: Chem-Courier
Data: 2010
AN
CAN
M. East 10%
others 20%
others 16%
Europe 19%
9,6 mmt
7,5 mmt N. America 8%
Rus, Ukr 43%
Source: Chem-Courier
Rus, Ukr 9%
Europe 75%
Data: 2010
2
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AS others 9%
UAN
China 13%
Rus, Ukr, Bel 18%
Asia 17%
9,3 mmt
others 3%
N. America 14%
Rus, Ukr, Bel 33%
4,5 mmt
N. America 14% Europe 29%
Europe 50%
Source: Chem-Courier
Data: 2010
CIS Export Structure:
Nitrogen
3
2/18/2012
Ammonia others
Russia Ukraine N. America
Turkey
Europe Africa
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
th. mt Source: Chem-Courier
Data: 2011
Urea SE. Asia
Russia
M. East
Ukraine
N. America
Belarus
CIS India Africa Turkey Europe L. America 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
th. mt Source: Chem-Courier
Data: 2011
4
2/18/2012
AN SE Asia
Russia
N. America
Ukraine
others Africa India Europe Turkey CIS L. America 0
500
1000
1500
2000
th. mt Source: Chem-Courier
Data: 2011
CAN Russia
others
Ukraine Africa
CIS
Europe 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
th. mt Source: Chem-Courier
Data: 2011
5
2/18/2012
AS Russia
others
Ukraine CIS
Belarus Europe
L. America SE. Asia
Turkey 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
th. mt Source: Chem-Courier
Data: 2011
UAN others
Russia Belarus
CIS
Ukraine Australia
Argentina
N. America 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
th. mt Source: Chem-Courier
Data: 2011
6
2/18/2012
CIS in the Future:
Nitrogen exports
↑
Influence:
• Growing consumption worldwide. • Fast growing demand in key markets, especially in Latin America and Asia.
↓
• Increasing natural gas prices. • Limited capacity growth as compared with other exporting regions: - Ammoniy: ammonia – 455 th. mt/a, urea – 718 th. mt/a, AN – 380 th. mt/a. Startup — 2015. - Acron: urea – 330 th. mt/a, startup — 2012; ammonia – 700 th. mt/a, startup —2015. • Growing logistic costs and transportation problems (by railway).
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2/18/2012
CIS Nitrogen Exports are estimated to decrease: CIS Urea Exports to go down:
million tons
9
In 2011 CIS Nitrogen Exports grew significantly: • Ammonia — to 5.14 million mt, up 38% on 2010; • Urea — to 8.5 million mt, up 14% on 2010;
8
7
6
2010
2011
2012
But, in 2012 CIS Nitrogen Exports will fall due to market volatility and increasing natural gas prices and growing competition. CIS share in the world trade will soften year-on-year.
CIS in the World:
Phosphate
8
2/18/2012
DAP
MAP others 4% China 16%
others 17%
Russia 15%
Africa 15%
China 25%
15,8 mmt
5,8 mmt Russia 24%
Africa 17%
N. America 41%
N. America 26%
Source: Chem-Courier
Data: 2010
NPK
Europe 40%
10,5 mmt
Rus, Ukr, Bel 42%
others 18% Source: Chem-Courier
Data: 2010
9
2/18/2012
CIS Export Structure:
Phosphate
DAP/MAP MAP (Russia)
SE. Asia M. East others
DAP (Russia)
CIS India Turkey N. America L. America Europe Africa 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
th. mt Source: Chem-Courier
Data: 2011
10
2/18/2012
NPK others N. America
Russia Ukraine
Africa
Belarus
L. America India SE. Asia CIS China Europe 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
th. mt Source: Chem-Courier
Data: 2011
CIS in the Future:
Phosphate exports
11
2/18/2012
Influence: ↑
↓
• Growing consumption worldwide. • Availability of raw material reserves.
• Limited capacity growth as compared with other exporting regions: - North-West Phosphate Company: 1 million mt/a. Startup — 2012.
CIS Phosphate Exports will be flat:
million tons
3.7
CIS MAP/DAP Exports likely to keep in line:
3.6
3.5
2010
2011
2012
In 2011 CIS NPK’s exports grew slightly and MAP/DAP summary exports were at the level of 2010: • NPK — to 4.6 million mt, up 3% on 2010; • MAP/DAP — 3.6 million mt, but: • DAP —1.3 million mt, down 41% on 2010; • MAP —2.3 million mt, up 66% on 2010; So, CIS Phosphate exports are expected to be flat or decrease moderately. But the share will be shrinking year-on-year because of new large capacities coming on stream in N. Africa and Saudi Arabia and limited production ramp up in CIS.
12
2/18/2012
CIS in the World:
Potash
Potash others 2% Rus, Bel 37%
M. East 11%
44,9 mmt Europe 10%
N. America 40% Source: Chem-Courier
Data: 2010
13
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CIS Export Structure:
Potash
Potash Russia
CIS N. America
Belarus SE. Asia
Europe China India L. America others 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
th. mt Source: Chem-Courier
Data: 2011
14
2/18/2012
CIS in the Future:
Potash exports
Influence: ↑ • Growing consumption worldwide. • Huge reserves in Russia and Belarus. • Few key players. • Capacity expansion: - EuroChem: 2.3 million mt/a. Startup — 2013. - Uralkali: capacity growth to 13 million mt/a (+2.4 million mt) in 2012. - Belaruskali: capacity growth to 9 million mt/a in 2012 and up to 11 million mt/a by 2015.
15
2/18/2012
CIS Potash Exports are estimated to grow:
million tons
17
CIS Potash Exports likely to keep in line: In 2011 CIS Potash Exports fell: • MOP — to 15.6 million mt, down 6% on the 2010. CIS will keep and even strengthen further it’s positions in the global market in future due to industry consolidation and production expansion to meet growing demand worldwide.
16
15
14
2010
2011
2012
Thank you for your attention! e.bilichenko@chem-courier.ru Tel.: + 380 56 233 57 35 Cell: +380 97 921 11 30 www.chem-courier.ru
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