18th AFA Int’l Annual Fertilizer Forum & Exhibition Feb., 7-9-2012, Sharm El-Sheikh , Egypt Maritim Jolie Ville Hotel
Historical Development of Nutrient use in Pakistan, Current Scenario & Future Outlook
Mr. Muhammad Tahir Saleem Editor, Farming Outlook Pakistan
2/18/2012
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF FERTILIZER AND THE CURRENT SCENARIO IN PAKISTAN
18th AFA Int’l Annual Fertilizer Forum Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt 7- 9 February, 2012 1
COUNTRY PROFILE – 1 Per cent of total farm area under various size of farms • Less than 5 ha • 5 to 10 ha • 10 to 40 ha • > 40 ha
: : : :
44 % 19 % 26 % 11 %
Population : 180 million (2.05% gr) Poverty : 30 % population Literacy : 57.7% 2
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COUNTRY PROFILE – 2 • Land Area: 79.61 m ha (796,100 sq km). • Cropped Area: 23.67 m ha (30 %). • Major Crops: – Wheat: 8.8 m ha – Cotton: 2.7 m ha – Rice: 2.4 m ha – Sugarcane: 1.0 m ha – Maize: 0.9 m ha – Fruits & Veg: 1.3 m ha Total: 17.1 m ha 3
COUNTRY PROFILE – 3 Yield Gap Crop
Wheat Cotton S cane Maize Rice
Progressive National Yield Farmers’ Yield (t/ ha.) Yield (t/ha.) Gap (%)
4.6 2.6 200 6.9 3.8
2.6 1.8 54.5 2.9 2.1
43.5 30.8 72.8 58.5 45.5
Source: Agri Stat Pakistan 2008 – 09, Planning Commission, 2009
National yields are generally about 50 % of what progressive farmers obtain. 4
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FERTILIZER DEVELOPMENT • Fertilizer introduced in 1952 (1,000 t) • Current level – – –
> 3.93 million t nutrients Nitrogen : 3.13 million tonnes Phosphate : 0.77 million tonnes Potash : 0.03 million tonnes
• In terms of use rate: – Nitrogen – Phosphate – Potash – NPK
: : : :
132.2 kg per ha 32.5 kg per ha 1.3 kg per ha 166.0 kg per ha
• The use rate in 2009-10 was 184.2 kg NPK
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STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT
•
Pakistan underwent three classical phases of development
1. Introductory phase
:
1949 to 1980
2. Take off phase
:
1980 to 1995
3. Advanced phase
:
1995 to date
•
Every phase of development warrants a different strategy for planning, research and extension. 6
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INTRODUCTORY PHASE - 1 1949 TO 1980
• • • • •
Ammonium sulphate field demonstration in 1952. Fertilizer simple trials in farmers’ fields initiated in 1958 under Freedom From Hunger Campaign, later taken over under FAO . Phosphate deficiency discovered wide spread for the first time. Extensive fertilizer field days held to promote fertilizers . SSP and AS plants setup in 1958, followed by Engro, DHL and Pakarab – FFC finally in 1980. 7
INTRODUCTORY PHASE - 2 1949 TO 1980
•
Fertilizer use in 1960 at World level Developing Countries South Asia
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Pakistan fertilizer use in 1960 20 thousand tonnes (1.3 kg per ha)
•
Pakistan fertilizer use in 1975 425 thousand tonnes (24.5 kg per ha)
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Pakistan fertilizer use in 1980 1044 thousand tonnes (55.5 kg per ha)
: : :
27.4 m n t 2.7 m n t 0.4 m n t
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TAKE OFF PHASE 1980 TO 1995
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Take off transitory phase: 1975 to 1980 when fertilizer use per ha rose from 25 to 55 kg per ha.
• •
Fertilizer use in 1995 rose to 98.6 kg per ha. Global nutrient scenario from 1960 to 1990: World South Asia Pakistan
•
: : :
27.4 to 143.6 m t 0.4 to 14.8 m t 0.02 to 1.89 m t
In Pakistan this phase was marked by setting up of NFDC – to consolidate agronomic data, improving research focus, policy planning, introducing efficiency 9 concept, deregulation and expansion in industry .
ADVANCED PHASE 1995 ONWARDS
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Fertilizer use rose from 2.2 about 4.0 million tonnes – in terms of usage from about 100 kg to the present level of about 180 kg per ha.
•
CIDA project on potash demonstrated the benefits of NPKs and introduced MOP in Pakistan.
• •
Engro introduced NPK blends based on MOP.
• •
Market completely de-regulated.
NFDC playing a monitoring role besides liaison with industry and provincial research and extension. Vast increase in fertilizer industry expansion – from 1.5 to 3.0 m t of nutrients – FFC (urea & DAP) & Engro (Urea & NPKs) being the major producers besides Fatima’s (NP, urea, CAN). 10
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•
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PROBLEMS – CURRENT SCENARIO - 1
Increasing prices of inputs, particularly per bag of 50 kg fertilizers rose from 1995 to onwards: Urea : Rs. 235/- to Rs. 800/-. NP : Rs. 250/- to Rs. 1,452/-. DAP : Rs. 379/- to Rs. 2,267/Current year marked by fertilizer shortages and further increase in prices raising urea to Rs. 1,760/- and DAP to more than Rs. 4,000/- per bag – phenomenal increases. Gas shortages reduced local production – resulting in heavy subsidies on imported urea. 11
PROBLEMS – CURRENT SCENARIO - 2 • • •
• •
Potash use has been neglected and there is no strategy to promote it. Fertigation on commercial basis remains a far cry yet. Fertilizer efficiency poor as reflected by too much emphasis on nitrogen: poor nutrient ratios, soil-test based fertilizer recommendations lacking and formal training an education of farmers almost nonexistent. Fertilizer supply in poor shape – belated imports and gas shortages for local production. The farmers suffer unless he embarks on innovative agricultural production techniques. 12
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PROBLEMS – CURRENT SCENARIO - 3
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A recently emerged problem is the Americans’ concern on the use of Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (CAN), which according to world media is also likely to be used in explosives by the terrorists.
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You can not stop producing CAN as it is a by product of nitro-phosphate.
• •
Possible solution? Monitoring of the movement of CAN and probably zoning its usage.
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ART IS LONG, LIFE SHORT
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I like to introduce to you
FARMING Outlook which completes its 10 years of publication
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The 10-year anniversary issue is available.
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It is a mission-oriented undertaking and we solicit your cooperation.
We encourage you to subscribe as well as to contribute short papers to it.
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I am visiting Egypt which today is different than I found on my first visit in 1964 – almost 48 years ago – on my way to UK AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENT HEARING
I appreciate and acknowledge with gratitude AFA’s assistance in making my participation possible 15
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