AFAC14 Conference Delegate Handbook by AFAC

Delegate Handbook

www.afac.com.au/conference

Major Conference Sponsor

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Contents

page

Welcome. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Conference Planning Committee. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Sponsors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Conference Keynote Speakers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-7 Invited Speakers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-9 Research Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Dr채ger Knowledge Lounge. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-13 Program. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-19 Tuesday: Research Forum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Wednesday . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Thursday . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Professional Development Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Field Study Tours. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Cultural Information. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Web App Information. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 General Information. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Exhibitor Listing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Exhibition Floor Plan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Abstracts & Poster Lists - Content Page . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Oral Abstracts - Research Forum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Oral Abstracts - AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference. . . . . . . . . . . 45 Poster Abstracts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Abstract Index by Author. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 Poster Lists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86-89 AFAC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 DEPI Project. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Bushfire CRC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Precinct Map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 Venue Map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Back Cover

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

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Welcome

Greg Mullins

AFSM

AFAC President Commissioner, Fire & Rescue NSW The theme for this year’s conference -“After Disaster Strikes, Learning from Adversity” – has meaning for all of us involved in the emergency management sector as we return to Wellington, New Zealand, for the 21st AFAC Conference, which is being held three years after the devastating Christchurch earthquake of February 2011. Many AFAC members travelled to NZ to assist in the response immediately following the earthquake, and we are pleased to be able to return now for this conference and to share in the learning from this disaster with our NZ colleagues. Natural and human caused disasters strike all countries, but can be particularly devastating in our region. This year’s conference program will explore how emergency management agencies, land managers and communities prepared, responded to and assisted with recovery following major disasters, and the knowledge gained from this is vital to developing evidence-based policy and informing our practice in the future. This conference is designed to bring together and share the combined wisdom of experience, research and analysis from across the sector to enable a deeper understanding of the approaches needed to secure the region’s future safety and prosperity. It has an all hazards focus as we partner with the newly established Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC for the first time, in what we believe will be a long standing conference partnership as was the case previously with the Bushfire CRC. We will consider the relationship between climate, landscape and environment, how human population growth has impacted the landscape and the environment, and the ways in which fire, land management and emergency service agencies can work together in the future to deal with these challenges. We will also reflect on the political, social and economic impacts of disasters and the role emergency management agencies have in minimising these impacts. Our focus is also on how we can support our people through adversity during and after major incidents, as we come to understand more about the impacts on emergency service personnel, who are often called upon to support communities at the same time as being personally affected by a major event. We have an outstanding program of speakers from NZ, Australia, and across our region, as well as international speakers from the United States, United Kingdom and Europe, contributing to what is an extremely high calibre conference program. We expect the speakers will challenge your thinking and we encourage delegates to discuss and debate key issues facing our sector so that together we can learn from adversity.

Dr Laurie Hammond Chairman, Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC In the year since the last conference we have been reminded many times of the challenges that extreme events, of many kinds, present for emergency managers across our region and across the globe. With this in mind, I welcome you to the annual conference of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, held in conjunction with the AFAC annual conference. After a low key appearance at the Melbourne conference in 2013, the final conference for our predecessor the Bushfire CRC, we are in Wellington 2014 for our first full strength presentation of our work program. The commitments made by the members of this new CRC highlight their belief that research is more important now than ever. The science on show from the CRC researchers demonstrates the significant work and the benefits that will be delivered over coming years. The quality and the utility of our science are imperative to delivering real outcomes for our enduser members and the industry. Most of our researchers are at the conference, and many are giving presentations and contributing research posters that are on display near the CRC and AFAC booth. I invite you to visit the booth, look at the posters and talk to our researchers. These discussions can be the first steps towards collaborations and partnerships, which are very important measures of the success of this conference. Another element of the conference program, and one of the most popular, is the Research Forum, which is to be held on the first day of the conference week in Wellington. This is our first Research Forum and we were very encouraged that it sold out. The Forum showcases the diversity of the research being conducted, which in turn is a reflection of the “all hazards” mission of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and the research directions being pursued by the wider international research community. The Research Forum is a great opportunity for end users to learn about current research and meet the researchers and I encourage each of you to attend. Please take the time while you are here to see the scope of the research work getting under way, and talk to us about how it can be adopted by your organisation and your part of the industry.

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

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Conference Planning Committee Brett Warwick (Chair)

New Zealand Fire Service

Stuart Ellis

AFAC

Paul Baxter

New Zealand Fire Service

Amanda Leck

AFAC

Rob Pope

New Zealand Fire Service

Richard Thornton

BNHCRC

Murray Dudfield

New Zealand Fire Service

Michael Rumsewicz

BNHCRC

Paul McGill

New Zealand Fire Service

Mandy Cant (Secretariat)

AFAC

Max Hood

New Zealand Fire Service

Leigh Deuchars

New Zealand Fire Service

Karlum Lattimore

New Zealand Fire Service

Sponsors Major Sponsor

Sponsors

Partner

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

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Conference Keynote Speakers

Associate Professor Rory Nathan University of Melbourne/ Jacobs Dr Rory Nathan has an international reputation for applying hydrological research to solving practical problems, with specialist expertise in the characterisation of hydrologic risk, the estimation of catchment yield, hydrologic modelling, regionalisation, and environmental hydrology. Rory appeared as an expert witness before the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry, and was the lead author of the Australian national guidelines on the estimation of large to extreme floods. He has published around 150 papers in refereed journals and conference proceedings, and has won several national and international awards for his research. He has been awarded national “Civil Engineer of the Year” and recognised as one of Australia’s “top 100 most influential engineers” by Engineers Australia.

Professor Kathleen Tierney

Professor David Johnston

Director, Natural Hazards Centre University of Colorado, USA

Director, Joint Centre for Disaster Research, GNS Science / Massey University New Zealand

Kathleen Tierney is a professor in the Department of Sociology and the Institute of Behavioral Science and Director of the Natural Hazards Centre at the University of Colorado at Boulder. Kathleen’s research focuses on the societal dimensions of hazards, disasters, and risk. During her career as a disaster researcher, she has conducted research on hurricanes, including Hugo and Andrew; the Loma Prieta, Northridge, Kobe, and Haiti earthquakes; many technological disasters; and the World Trade Centre terrorist attacks. Her current research interests include the politics and economics of disaster loss reduction, post-disaster recovery, and climate change and extreme events. Her articles have appeared in The Annual Review of Sociology, The Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Sociological Spectrum, the Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, the International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, the Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, and other publications. With William Waugh, she co-edited Emergency Management: Principles and Practice for Local Government (2007).

Professor David Johnston is a Senior Scientist at GNS Science (New Zealand’s Geological Survey), and Director of the Joint Centre for Disaster Research in the School of Psychology at Massey University. His research has developed as part of a multi-disciplinary theoretical and applied research program, involving the collaboration of physical and social scientists from several organisations and countries. His research focuses on human responses to volcano, tsunami and weather warnings, crisis decision-making and the role of public education and participation in building community resilience and recovery. David is the Chair of the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk Scientific Committee, a program co-sponsored by the International Council for Science, the International Social Science Council, and the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction; on New Zealand’s Royal Society Social Science Advisory Panel; the Editor of The Australasian Journal of Disaster and Trauma Studies; and founding Editor of the Journal of Applied Volcanology.

Kathleen is currently Vice President of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute and a member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences Committee to Advise the U. S. Global Change Research Program. With economist Adam Rose, she recently initiated a project focusing on business resilience following Hurricane Sandy. Her new book, entitled The Social Roots of Risk: Producing Disasters, Promoting Resilience, was published in June 2014 by Stanford University Press.

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

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Conference Keynote Speakers continued

Therese Walsh

Tom Harbour

Vaughan Poutawera

Head of New Zealand ICC Cricket World Cup 2015

Director Fire and Aviation, US Forest Service

Consultant Orthopaedic Surgeon, Tauranga, Whakatane & Grace Hospitals, New Zealand

A chartered accountant, Therese began her career as an auditor at KPMG, moving to the role of Chief Financial Officer at the NZ Rugby Union in 2001. The highlight of her time at the NZ Rugby Union was being part of the team that worked on the winning bid to host RWC 2011 in NZ.

Tomâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s first experience with bushfire was firefighting in central California in 1970. Since then, Tom has been involved in wildland fire and aviation management his entire career. Beginning as a firefighter, Tom has had opportunities to fight, prescribe, and manage fires across the United States and internationally. His emergency management experiences have included fires, hurricanes, earthquakes, riots, floods, and other types of disasters all across America. He has been a Burn Boss, an Incident Commander, and Area Commander at the highest levels of complexity.

Therese then moved to work for the RWC 2011 delivery company, RNZ 2011, in the role of GM Corporate Services and then Chief Operating Officer. Following the successful completion of RWC 2011, she was appointed Head of New Zealand ICC Cricket World Cup 2015. Therese has a strong interest in the international aid sector, having previously served on the Board of Save the Children and currently Chairing the MFAT International Development Advisory and Selection Panel. She is a member of the New Zealand Major Events Investment Panel, serves on the Boards of NZX Limited and TVNZ Limited and was a previous Director of NZ Cricket. She was recently named the inaugural winner of the Women of Influence Awards.

Tom has a Bachelor of Science degree in civil engineering from the University of California, Davis and a Bachelor of Science degree in forest management from Washington State University. He graduated summa cum laude from the University of California at Davis and with Presidential Honors for a 4.0 GPA from Washington State University. Tom has completed postgraduate work at the JFK School of Government, Harvard University and the Kenan-Flager School of Business at the University of North Carolina. Tom served with faculty and leaders at the Marine Corps University, Quantico, Virginia. The US Forest Service Fire and Aviation Management program employs over 10,000 firefighters and has a budget over US $2 billion.

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

Vaughan Poutawera is an orthopaedic surgeon based in Tauranga in the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. He practices at Tauranga and Whakatane public hospitals and Grace private hospital. Vaughan graduated from the University of Otago Medical School in 1999 and became a Fellow of the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons in 2008. Vaughan worked as an Orthopaedic Fellow at university hospitals in Toronto, Canada and Zurich, Switzerland in 2009-2010 before returning to New Zealand to take up his Specialist Consultant post with the Bay of Plenty District Health Board in 2011. His interest in working in the developing world was initiated in medical school when in his final year, he worked for three months in South Africa. Vaughan travels to Rarotonga in the Cook Islands to consult and operate on orthopaedic patients every 18-24 months, and is involved with the training of Pacific Island surgeons in the Solomons Islands. He also participated in the inaugural New Zealand Medical Assistance Team (NZMAT) team members course in 2013 and is involved with the ongoing development of NZMAT. He was the team Orthopaedic Surgeon on the Australian Medical Assistance Team (AUSMAT) Bravo rotation in Tacloban, Philippines following Typhoon Haiyan in 2013.Â

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Dr Deen Sanders

Neil Gibbins

José Santiago

Chief Executive Officer for the combined Australian Government’s Professional Standards Council

International President 2014/15, Institution of Fire Engineers, UK

Commissioner, Chicago Fire Department, USA

Neil’s 35 year operational fire service career spanned all roles from firefighter to Acting Chief Fire Officer. He has over 20 years of senior management experience and practical application of incident command, fire investigation, training and development and fire prevention/protection. He became Deputy Chief Fire Officer of Devon and Somerset Fire and Rescue Service following the successful merger of the two services. Neil was project co-director for the combination, which is still the only voluntary fire service merger in the UK. As Deputy CFO, Neil had the responsibility for day to day running of one of the UK’s largest fire services, with specific responsibility for performance and improvement.

Commissioner José Santiago joined the Chicago Fire Department (CFD) in 1979, and was appointed Fire Commissioner in 2012. Commissioner José manages over 5,000 sworn members and an annual budget of over US $567 million. He has made the CFD a leader in the fire service industry by implementing several best practices, including sweeping changes to the CFD’s incident command policies. These and other safety reforms established the CFD as an innovator in high-rise fire safety.

Working with industry, government, regulators and consumers, Deen leads Australia’s Professional Standards Councils, promoting consumer protection and excellence in professional standards by encouraging professions in their selfregulation, through ‘professional standards schemes’. Deen comes from an extensive background in professions, standards, regulation, financial services law, corporate governance and education. He was previously head of the Financial Planning Association’s ‘professionalisation’ project for Australia’s financial planners and a member of the global regulatory taskforce for financial planning standards. As past General Manager of Australia’s Financial Services Education Agency he is also the architect of Australia’s national competency standards and education regulatory framework in financial services. Deen’s academic background includes undergraduate and postgraduate law, psychology and business as well as professional education. In 2010 he finalised a Doctorate with a focus on how new professions are developed and the preferred regulatory systems to deliver trust, ethics and professional identity. He is recognised as an expert in professions, standards, regulation and ethics and has published a number of articles in the area, as well as led government research projects.

In 2005 to 2007 Neil chaired the working group that managed the implementation of the Fire Safety Order by English and Welsh fire services, the most fundamental change to UK fire law in decades. Neil was lead officer for fire protection within the UK Chief Fire Officers Association from 2007 to 2013. These roles involved a wide range of fire protection challenges, from chairing a national cross sector timber frame building group through to designing data capture systems to aid future targeting and evaluation. Neil was awarded the Queen’s Fire Service Medal in the 2010 Queen’s Birthday Honours list and is a Fellow of the Institution of Fire Engineers. He is a Director of the Institution of Fire Engineers, is chair of Institution of Fire Engineers (Publications) Ltd and is a Director of his own company, GIB Fire Risk Services Ltd.

Previous to his position as Fire Commissioner, José was Executive Director of the Chicago Office of Emergency Management and Communications (OEMC). As Executive Director, José had the critical responsibility of overseeing the multiple disciplines that comprise the OEMC, which include the dispatch of all police, fire and emergency medical services and non-emergency services, the management of a 24-hour City Operations Center that coordinates routine emergency and traffic services; the oversight, development, and execution of all City of Chicago disaster and homeland security planning and operations, and the oversight and maintenance of the City of Chicago’s video surveillance network. José also served in the United States Marine Corp for over 31 years, both in active duty and the Reserves. He worked his way through the ranks from Private to Commanding Officer of H & S Company, 2nd Battalion, 24th Marine Regiment, 4th Marine Division. He holds a Bachelor of Science Degree from Southern Illinois University.

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

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Invited Speakers

Paul Fuller

Daniel Neely

Peter Townsend

Chief Fire Officer, Bedfordshire Fire and Rescue Service, UK

Manager, Community Resilience, Wellington Region Emergency Management Office (WREMO), NZ

CEO, Canterbury Employers’ Chamber of Commerce, NZ

Paul Fuller joined Bedfordshire Fire and Rescue Service as Chief Fire Officer in February 2002. Since joining the Fire Service in 1978, Paul’s career path has taken him to West Midlands, West Sussex, Staffordshire and Wiltshire, where he has spent time in Operations, Staff, Fire Prevention, Training and command functions. Paul qualified as a Member of the Institution of Fire Engineers in 1984, completed a Master of Science in Human Resources Management in 1996, the Brigade Command Course in 1997, and a Bachelor of Science in Fire Safety Technology and Management in 2003 and became Fellow of the Institute of Fire Engineers in 2008. Paul currently serves on a number of national bodies including Chair of CFOA Services Limited, deputy Chair of Fire Sector Federation, CFOA President and Trustee of the national charity the Children’s Burns Trust. He is a member of the former Bedfordshire St John Council, the Police Partnership Board and the Strategic Steering group for the Regional and World Children’s Burns Camp, and Chair of the Bedfordshire and Luton Chief Executive Forum. Paul was also made a Freeman of the City of London in 2012. Paul was awarded the Queen’s Fire Service Medal for exemplary service in the Birthday Honours 2008.

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

Daniel Neely has a long history in community development and disaster management around the world. He served two years as a Peace Corps volunteer in Honduras after Hurricane Mitch and was a Site Manager in Sri Lanka with the International Organisation for Migration after the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami. In New Zealand, Dan wrote WREMO’s Community Resilience Strategy, which has since become the foundation document for an International Centre of Excellence in Community Resilience through the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Dan originally hails from the Sonoran Desert of Arizona.

Peter is the Chief Executive of the Canterbury Employers’ Chamber of Commerce and has held the position since 1996. The Employers’ Chamber, as the largest business support agency in the South Island, concentrates on assisting members to improve their enterprises; ensuring members can operate in a business friendly environment; and encouraging new levels of business activity. Peter holds several corporate directorships including being a Board member of New Zealand Trade and Enterprise and the Callaghan Grants Committee. He is also a Board member of Pegasus Health (Charitable) Ltd and the Air Force Museum Trust. He is involved with a range of community groups and initiatives in this region that are in harmony with the objectives of the Employers’ Chamber. Since the September 2010 Christchurch earthquake, and especially since the February 2011 earthquake, Peter has been actively involved in earthquake recovery issues. In September 2013, Peter received the Individual Leadership Award at the AUT Business School Excellence in Business Support Awards. Peter is the Honorary Consul for Chile for the South Island, a Fellow of the Institute of Directors and a Fellow of the Institute of Management. Peter has a BSc (Hons) and a post Graduate Diploma in Business.

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Professor Charles Fleischmann

John Hamilton

Director of Undergraduate Studies, Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, NZ

Director of Civil Defence & Emergency Management, NZ

Charles Fleischmann is a Professor at the University of Canterbury where he has been a major contributor to the Graduate Fire Engineering Program since it’s inception in 1994. Charles received his Bachelor degree in Fire Protection Engineering from the University of Maryland and his Masters and PhD from the University of California at Berkeley. Much of his research focuses on fire modelling, both experimentally and numerically, with particular interest in compartment fire phenomena including backdraft and flashover. Charles has over 25 years of experience in fire engineering research and practice. His consulting work includes fire cause, origin, and development as well as specialist consulting on fire design issues. He has given expert witness testimony in civil, criminal, and family court. Since 2004, he has served on the Fire Advisory Panel for the New Zealand Department of Building and Housing. In 2006 he was engaged as a consultant to work on developing a Verification Method for performance-based design for fire safety in New Zealand. He is a Fellow of SFPE and in 2011 received the Arthur B Guise medal for eminent achievement in the advancement of the science and technology of fire protection engineering. Charles has over 100 academic and professional publications and has presented many invited and keynote presentations around the world.

CNZM, MVO

John Hamilton assumed the appointment of Director Civil Defence Emergency Management in 2006. John comes from Hawke’s Bay and was educated at Christ’s College and Canterbury University. He joined the Royal New Zealand Air Force in 1971 and qualified as a pilot and subsequently flew helicopters. John’s career with the RNZAF spanned 35 years and saw him complete command courses in the United Kingdom and the United States and an exchange in Australia. He held command and leadership appointments at all levels of the RNZAF, including command of the helicopter squadron, No 3 Squadron, RNZAF Base Ohakea, and the RNZAF’s Operations Group. His career culminated with a four year period from 2002-2006 as Chief of Air Force in the rank of Air Vice-Marshal. In his current appointment he leads a small team responsible for facilitating improvements in New Zealand’s disaster resilience and its ability to prepare for an emergency. This includes managing the response and recovery activities. In a national emergency he is responsible for the control and coordination of the response. John was made a member of the Royal Victorian Order (MVO) in 1981 for his service to the Queen. He was appointed an Officer of the New Zealand Order of Merit in recognition of his leadership of the joint planning for the initial New Zealand deployment to East Timor, and in 2006 he was promoted to become a Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit (CNZM) in recognition of his leadership as Chief of Air Force.

Nick Tansley Master of Ceremonies Nick Tansley has a huge volume of experience at corporate events New Zealand wide, and is a familiar face on TV and stage. He has a proven track record spanning decades as Master of Ceremonies at corporate and award events all over New Zealand. Nick was born in Invercargill in the 1960’s and is the son of well-known singer Maurice Tansley. He began performing at the age of five, forming bands during his teenage years and touring once he left school. Nick is well known to many New Zealanders with roles on stage, screen and radio. Examples of Nick’s previous roles as Master of Ceremonies include the Alumni Awards Dinner Victoria University, Carols by Candlelight Host, various conferences and sporting events. Among Nick’s skills are the ability to read the audience to make them feel comfortable and engaged, dealing with last minute changes, and keeping the event running at a good pace and on time. Nick will perform the role of Master of Ceremonies for the duration of the AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference, keeping delegates informed about what is happening to maximise their conference experience. When Nick is on stage we would ask delegates to be attentive and listen for updates. What he is telling you may be important!

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

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Research Forum Showcasing the latest in fire and all hazards science from around Australia, New Zealand and the world, the Research Forum is the first day of the conference week in Wellington â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Tuesday 2 September. Now a standard part of the annual conference week, this year the Forum will be driven by the research agenda of the new Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC, which replaces the decade of science built up by its predecessor, the Bushfire CRC. With more than 30 researchers from universities and agencies across Australia, New Zealand and the United States, the Research Forum is not just for scientists - it is a great opportunity for emergency management personnel and end users to learn about the current research and connect with the researchers.

Topics covered include the latest research into severe weather, community safety, heatwaves, flood risk, the economics of natural hazards, infrastructure planning, fire modelling and volunteer management. Keynote speakers include Prof Kathleen Tierney, Director of the US Natural Hazards Centre, and a special presentation on the behavioural responses to the 2011 Christchurch earthquake by Prof David Johnston of Massey University. Partnerships are one of the most important aspects of the CRC, and the Research Forum provides a great opportunity to connect emergency service practitioners with researchers to discuss the latest natural hazards science, contributing to the learning culture of the conference.

The Research Forum emphasises the diversity of the research being conducted across all hazards, and will provide the opportunity for focused discussions between the research community and emergency managers on industry issues. The science on show will highlight the significant work that both CRCâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s deliver to fire, land management and emergency service agencies. The Research Forum and the entire conference present a great opportunity for all practitioners to learn what we are discovering about the biggest challenges across Australasia, and finding ways to use this knowledge every day to make our firefighters and communities safer.

WHEN THE LOAD YOU SHARE IS THE LIVES OF OTHERS, ONLY THE MOST RELIABLE TRUCK CAN SHARE IT WITH YOU. Isuzu is proud to support and sponsor AFAC14. Come and visit us at Stand 9. *Optional 7,500kg GVM (available on application in Australia) for emergency services applications only. ISZ9343

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Knowledge Lounge The AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference is delighted once again to have the popular Knowledge Lounge as a feature of this year’s conference. For the fifth consecutive year, The Knowledge Lounge, sponsored by Dräger, gives delegates the opportunity to meet with speakers, view and vote on posters and network with other delegates. During breaks between conference activities all speakers including some of the leading speakers and researches featured at the conference are invited to the Knowledge Lounge to give delegates the opportunity to engage in more informal discussions. It’s a great opportunity and all delegates are encouraged to utilise the Lounge and the speakers it will host.

Poster Voting – People’s Choice Award Once again you have the chance to cast your vote for what you believe is the best poster at the conference. Take the opportunity to meet with the poster authors over morning tea during the poster sessions held on Tuesday in the TSB Bank Arena upstairs foyer and on Wednesday and Thursday in the ground floor foyer. There are two ways to vote: 1. Use Twitter to send a tweet with the poster number you want to vote for using the hashtag #afac2014 2. Fill in a Voting Form - available at the AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Stand and place in the barrel provided There is also a tear-off voting form in your pocket delegate program which you can fill in and place in the barrels located within the poster area of the Trade Expo Hall. The winning poster author will be presented with their award at the closing ceremony on Thursday afternoon. The Judges’ Poster Award will also be presented at the closing ceremony. Don’t forget to vote for your favourite poster! Remember – only 1 vote per delegate.

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

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AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

Day 1: Research Forum Tuesday 2 September 2014

STREAM 1 Room One

STREAM 2 Room Two

Chair: Richard Thornton, CEO, Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC 9.00

Keynote: Flaws in our understanding and perception of flood risk - Assoc Prof Rory Nathan, University of Melbourne/ Jacobs, Australia

9.45

Keynote: Resilient disaster response and recovery: Lessons from social science research - Prof Kathleen Tierney, Director, Natural Hazards

10.30

MORNING TEA & POSTER SESSION - TSB BANK ARENA UPSTAIRS FOYER

11.00-11.30

HEAT AND SEVERE WEATHER

UNDERSTANDING AND ENHANCING COMMUNITY RESILIENCE 1

Chair: Steve Rothwell, Chief Fire Officer, NT Fire and Rescue Service

Chair: Prof John Handmer, RMIT University

Managing severe weather – progress and opportunities Dr Jeff Kepert, BNH CRC and Bureau of Meteorology

Building community resilience to natural hazards in northern Australia Jackie Gould, BNH CRC and Charles Darwin University Bev Sithole, BNH CRC and Charles Darwin University

11.30-12.00 The heatwaves of the 2013/2014 Australian summer John Nairn, Bureau of Meteorology - CAWCR 12.0012.30

Urban search and rescue operations in tropical climates Dr Matt Brearley, National Critical Care and Trauma Response Centre

12.30 1.30-2.00

LUNCH – TSB BANK ARENA UPSTAIRS FOYER

Out of sight, out of mind: How can we increase the disaster resilience of homeless people? Dr Danielle Every, Central Queensland University Building New Zealand new migrants’ safety and postdisaster resilience Julie Warren, Julie Warren and Associates Ltd

Chair: Gavin Freeman, Deputy Chief Officer, Tasmania Fire Service

UNDERSTANDING AND ENHANCING COMMUNITY RESILIENCE 2 Chair: Leigh Deuchars, New Zealand Fire Service

Measuring emergency management performance under adversity: The good the bad the ugly Dr Chris Bearman, BNH CRC and Central Queensland University and Dr Christine Owen, BNH CRC and University of Tasmania

Fire and spice and all things…not so nice: What does the largest ever international study really tell us about children who deliberately light fires? Ian Lambie, New Zealand Fire Service

2.00-2.30

Discovering future disaster management capability needs using scenario planning Dr Paul Barnes, Queensland University of Technology

Building best-practice in child-centred disaster risk reduction Prof Kevin Ronan, BNH CRC and Central Queensland University

2.30

AFTERNOON TEA – EXHIBITION HALL

3.00-3.30

3.30-4.00

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CAPABILITY

VOLUNTEERING

UNDERSTANDING AND ENHANCING COMMUNITY RESILIENCE 3

Chair: John Richardson, Australian Red Cross

Chair: Dr Holly Foster, Emergency Management Victoria

Building community resilience through non-traditional emergency volunteering Dr Blythe McLennan, BNH CRC and RMIT University

Managing Animals in Disasters (MAiD): The experiences of emergency services personnel in supporting animals and their owners in disasters Dr Melanie Taylor, BNH CRC and University of Western Sydney Developing an index of resilience for Australian communities Dr Phil Morley, BNH CRC and University of New England

Cultural collisions – The problems of sustaining a volunteer workforce in the NSW SES Dr Michael Jones, BNH CRC and University of Wollongong Chair: Michael Rumsewicz, Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

4.00

Keynote: Understanding behavioural responses to earthquake shaking using injury data from the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes

5.15

CONFERENCE WELCOME & AWARDS

6.00

WELCOME DRINKS

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

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STREAM 3 Room Three

STREAM 4 Room Four

Centre - University of Colorado, USA ECONOMICS OF NATURAL HAZARDS 1

FIRE MODELLING 1

Chair: Prof Alistar Robertson

Chair: Liam Fogarty, Dept of Environment and Primary Industries, VIC

Estimating the impacts of natural hazards on property and building losses Prof Rob van den Honert, BNH CRC and Risk Frontiers

Mitigating the effects of severe fires, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts Dr Imtiaz Dharssi, BNH CRC and Bureau of Meteorology - CAWCR

Disruption of critical infrastructure during prolonged natural disasters Emma Phillips, BNH CRC and Macquarie University

Modelling the fire weather of the Coonabarabran fire of 13 January 2013 Claire Yeo, Bureau of Meteorology - CAWCR

Protecting and managing critical infrastructure under a changing climate: roles, responsibilities and the allocation of risk Dr Karen Hussey, BNH CRC and Australian National University

The effects of fire-plume dynamics on the lateral and longitudinal spread of long-range spotting Dr Jeff Kepert, BNH CRC and Bureau of Meteorology

ECONOMICS OF NATURAL HAZARDS 2

FIRE MODELLING 2

Chair: Leesa Carson, Geoscience Australia

Chair: Alan Goodwin, Chief Fire Officer, Dept of Environment and Primary Industries, VIC

Integrated disaster decision support system incorporating mitigation portfolio optimisation Dr Jeffrey Newman, BNH CRC and University of Adelaide

Environmental thresholds for dynamic fire propagation Assoc Prof Jason Sharples, University of NSW Canberra

A pre-disaster multi-hazard damage and economic loss estimation Next generation models for predicting the behaviour of bushfires: model for Australia Challenges and prospects Dr Mohsen Kalantari, BNH CRC and University of Melbourne Prof Graham Thorpe, BNH CRC and Victoria University COMMUNITY SAFETY Chair: Damien Killalea, Tasmania Fire Service

FIRE MODELLING AND EXPERIMENTATION Chair: Shane Wiseman, Dept of Environment, Water & Natural Resources, SA

Social media: Why we all must operate in this space and how to do it ARPS simulation of pyro-convection under the influence of lowlevel jet wind profiles Melanie Irons, University of Tasmania/Booty/Tassie Fires - We Can Help Dr Colin Simpson, University of NSW Canberra The NSW RFS Household Assessment Tool Melissa Oâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;Halloran, NSW Rural Fire Service

The effect of the degree of grass curing on the behaviour of grassland fires â&#x20AC;&#x201C; an experimental study David Nichols, Country Fire Authority, VIC/ CSIRO

- Prof David Johnston, GNS Science / Massey University, New Zealand

Program subject to change. Go to www.afac.com.au/conference for updates. AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

Day 2: AFAC / BNH CRC Conference Wednesday 3 September 2014 STREAM 1

STREAM 2

Room One

Room Two

Chair: Paul Baxter, Chief Executive and National Commander, New Zealand Fire Service 8.30

Opening Ceremony

9.15

Keynote: Defensive lines - Maximising limited overs - Therese Walsh, New Zealand ICC Cricket World Cup, New Zealand

10.00

Keynote: Learning from adversity – Vitally important, difficult to attain - Tom Harbour, US Forest Service, USA

10.45

MORNING TEA & POSTER SESSION – TSB BANK ARENA FOYER

11.4512.15

EM IN THE PACIFIC ISLANDS

Chair: Rob Pope, New Zealand Fire Service

Chair: Stu Rooney, New Zealand Fire Service

Optimising business survival in a post disaster environment Peter Townsend, Canterbury Employers’ Chamber of Commerce, NZ

Melanesian Volcano Network Loti Yates, Government of Solomon Islands

12.1512.45

Adapting to the Big One – A word from experience John Hamilton, Director, New Zealand Civil Defence, NZ

Samoa’s response to Tropical Cyclone Evan: Effectiveness of response coordination through partnerships and relationship building Molly Nielson, Government of Samoa

12.45

LUNCH – TRADE EXHIBITION HALL

1.452.15

2.152.45

INDUSTRY LEADERS

URBAN FIRE - LESSONS LEARNED

Chair: Stuart Ellis, CEO, AFAC

Chair: Lee Johnson, Commissioner, Queensland Fire & Emergency Service

PANEL INTERVIEW Paul Baxter, Chief Executive & National Commander, New Zealand Fire Service Wayne Gregson, Commissioner, Dept of Fire & Emergency Services, WA Stephen Griffin, CEO, Victoria State Emergency Service David Nugent, Acting General Manager, Environment and Heritage, Parks Victoria

Case Study: Sydney Olympic Park Aquatic Centre car park multiple vehicle fire – 13 October, 2013 Rob Jansen, Fire & Rescue NSW

2.453.15

The City of Chicago’s keys to preparation and recovery José Santiago, Fire Chief, Chicago Fire Department, USA

3.15

AFTERNOON TEA –TRADE EXHIBITION HALL

3.454.15

CHRISTCHURCH RECOVERY

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

2007 Hobart Myer Fire – The sequel Gavin Freeman, Deputy Chief Officer, Tasmania Fire Service Quakers Hill Nursing Home Fire; After the disaster – What worked and why Chris Lewis, Fire & Rescue NSW

COMMUNITY RESPONSE TO BUSHFIRE

Chair: Jim Higgins, CEO, Metropolitan Fire & Emergency Services Board, VIC

Chair: Damien Killalea, Tasmania Fire Service

Hazelwood Mine Fire Euan Ferguson, Chief Officer, Country Fire Authority, VIC

Bushfire shelter options –Building resilience through policy and practice John Schauble, Emergency Management Victoria

4.154.45

Monitoring the health of Victorian volunteer firefighters Peter Langridge, Country Fire Authority, VIC Teagan Knight, Country Fire Authority, VIC

CERM: A cognitive risk model and simulation to predict community behaviour to emergencies Drew Mellor, ISD Analytics

4.45

CONFERENCE CLOSE DAY 1

6.30

CONFERENCE GALA DINNER - A NIGHT AT TE PAPA MUSEUM

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

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STREAM 3

STREAM 4

Room Three

Room Four

URBAN

FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEM

Chair: Mark Crosweller, Director General, Emergency Management Australia

Chair: Joe Buffone, Deputy Chief Officer, Country Fire Authority, VIC

UK Fire and Rescue Service: Latest challenges FIRE DANGER RATING PANEL An enhanced national Fire Danger Rating System Paul Fuller, Chief Fire Officer, Bedfordshire Fire and Rescue Service / President for Australia - Where to from here? CFOA, UK Liam Fogarty, Dept of Environment and Primary Industries, VIC Jeff Kepert, Bureau of Meteorology Michael Rumsewicz, Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

Chair: Prof Alistar Robertson

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT POLICY (Session includes 15min panel with speakers) Chair: Paul McGill, New Zealand Fire Service

Mitigating wildfire risk: A new fire weather system for New Zealand Michael Uddstrom, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

How safe is safe-enough? Dr Felipe Dimer de Oliveira, Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and Risk Frontiers

Enhanced bushfire management program, Southern Ranges Region: A success story â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Three years on Ian Dicker, NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service

The keys to providing assurance: Sharing responsibility and accepting accountability Iain Mackenzie, Office of Inspector-General Emergency Management, QLD

Post-emergency rapid risk assessment Wayne Buckman, Dept of Environment and Primary Industries, VIC and Annelise Peyton, Dept of Environment and Primary Industries, VIC

Learning from adversity: What has 75 years of bushfire inquiries (1939-2013) taught us? Assoc Prof Michael Eburn, BNH CRC and Australian National University

LAND MANAGEMENT

BIODIVERSITY Chair: Alan Goodwin, Chief Fire Officer, Dept of Environment and Primary Industries, VIC

IMPACT ASSESSMENTS - URBAN Chair: Grant Lupton, CEO, SA Metropolitan Fire Service

Balancing fire risk and biodiversity in an urbanising landscape using a ARM360 Initial Impact Assessment comparison of interstate programs. Where red meets green Colin Sampson, Metropolitan Fire and Emergency Services Board, VIC Owen Gooding, Country Fire Authority, VIC The effects of hazard reduction burning on the fuel array in nature The use of a dynamic cover tool by Fire & Rescue NSW reserves and urban parks in the ACT Mark Brown, Fire & Rescue NSW Dr Adam Leavesley, ACT Parks and Conservation Service Graham Holland, ORH Ltd

Program subject to change. Go to www.afac.com.au/conference for updates. AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

Day 3: AFAC / BNH CRC Conference Thursday 4 September 2014

STREAM 1

STREAM 2

Room One

Room Two

Chair: Stuart Ellis, CEO, AFAC 8.30

Keynote: Typhoon Haiyan: The experiences of an Australian field hospital, Tacloban Philippines 2013 - Vaughan Poutawera, Grace

9.15

Keynote: The case for professional standards in emergency services - Dr Deen Sanders, CEO, Professional Standards Council, Australia

10.00 10.30

10.3011.00 11.00 11.3012.00

URBAN PLANNING FOR DRR Chair: Dr Laurie Hammond, Chair, Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Planning for the future State: understanding growth, climate and other changes across the emergency management landscape Dr Holly Foster, Emergency Management Victoria Establishing deeper connections between urban planning and disaster risk reduction Dr Alan March, University of Melbourne

SUPPORTING OUR PEOPLE Chair: Brett Warwick, New Zealand Fire Service Supporting our people to support their community Trevor Brown, New Zealand Fire Service Supporting staff through tragedy Aaron Kennedy, Dept of Environment and Primary Industries, VIC

MORNING TEA – TRADE EXHIBITION HALL STRATEGIC CHALLENGES Chair:Wayne Gregson, Commissioner, Dept of Fire & Emergency Services, WA Future industry directions Greg Mullins, Commissioner, Fire & Rescue NSW

12.0012.30

Bushfires and natural hazards – A simple equation? Dr Richard Thornton CEO, BNH CRC

12.301.00

The 2013 NSW Bushfires – The challenges in a new age of information and warnings Rob Rogers, Deputy Commissioner, NSW Rural Fire Service

1.00

LUNCH – TRADE EXHIBITION HALL

FLOOD MANAGEMENT Chair: Mark Morrow, Assistant Commissioner , NSW State Emergency Service Vulnerability and resilience: Older Queenslanders’ post-flood experiences Assoc Prof Evonne Miller, Queensland University of Technology Alignment of social and environmental resilience in flood response Dr Melissa Parsons, BNH CRC and University of New England Supporting our people through adversity Ben Millington, NSW Rural Fire Service

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 2.002.30

2.303.00

Chair: Steve Rothwell, Chief Fire Officer, NT Fire and Rescue Service Enhancing community resilience – Or, what emergency managers can learn from Vanilla Ice Dan Neely, Wellington Regional Emergency Management Office, NZ Mission Command for fire and emergency managers Lark McDonald, CEO, Mission-Centered Solutions Euan Ferguson, Chief Officer, Country Fire Authority, VIC

TSUNAMIS Chair: Mosese Sikivou, Deputy Director, Secretariat of the Pacific Community Tonga Tsunami Wave Inundation Model – Effective tsunami evacuation planning and partnership Mafua Maka, Secretariat of the Pacific Community Tsunami risk in NSW – An update on recent modelling and risk assessment Felicia Andrews, NSW State Emergency Service

3.00

AFTERNOON TEA – TRADE EXHIBITION HALL

3.30

Closing Panel: I came. I learnt. But where to now? Facilitator: Nick Tansley

4.15

CONFERENCE CLOSING CEREMONY

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STREAM 3

STREAM 4

Room Three

Room Four

Orthopaedic Centre, New Zealand

COMMUNITY RESILIENCE Chair: Greg Nettleton, Chief Officer, SA Country Fire Service “Why don’t they do what we think they should?” Understanding people’s response to natural hazards Alan Rhodes, Emergency Management Victoria Building resilience: Understanding community needs and expectations of the emergency management sector Geoff Kaandorp, Metropolitan Fire & Emergency Services Board, VIC

MANAGING PEOPLE

VULNERABILITY OF ASSETS Chair: Chris Beattie, Chief Officer, SA State Emergency Service Vulnerability of road bridge infrastructure under extreme flood events Prof Sujeeva Setunge, BNH CRC and RMIT University Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events Dr David Henderson, BNH CRC and James Cook University

BUILT ENVIRONMENT

Chair: Max Hood, New Zealand Fire Service

Chair: Leigh Deuchars, New Zealand Fire Service

Making sense of it all – Thoughts from a burnt out Training Director Andrew Short, Queensland Fire and Emergency Services

Can building legislation protect us from natural hazards? Prof Charles Fleischmann, University of Canterbury, NZ

How real learning challenges organisational resilience: A New Zealand Fire Service case study Paul McNab, New Zealand Fire Service Young emergency management volunteers ‘Change It Up’ Zoe Kenyon, AFAC

Building back better Michelle Streater, NSW Rural Fire Service

BUSHFIRE RISK

The Institution of Fire Engineers – The international “knowledge hub” Neil Gibbins, Institution of Fire Engineers, UK

CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT

Chair: Richard Thornton, CEO, Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

Chair: Frank Pasquale, Dept of Fire & Emergency Services, WA

What do we know? Understanding attitudes, intentions and actions of residents in high risk communities post Black Saturday John Gilbert, Country Fire Authority, VIC Development of the Victorian bushfire risk profiles and the concept of residual risk Andy Ackland, Dept of Environment and Primary Industries, VIC

Training: How do we build north Australian community capacity to manage fires and other natural hazards at a landscape scale? Stephen Sutton, BNH CRC and Charles Darwin University Use it or lose it? Skill atrophy over time in incident management teams Peter Hayes, Kaplan Business School

Program subject to change. Go to www.afac.com.au/conference for updates. AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

www.afac.com.au/conference

Professional Development Program All PDPs are being held at the Michael Fowler Centre, 111 Wakefield St, Wellington, NZ

PDP 1:

National AIIMS Certification Scheme – Establishing Emergency Management as a Profession Incident management personnel perform a vital specialist public safety role. They manage complex and high-risk events that have the potential to do significant harm not only to people, but to property, business, economies and the environment. This forum will outline the opportunity for AIIMS incident management personnel to be nationally certified against criteria established by the industry body so that their expertise, competence and professionalism can be officially recognised and validated. This forum is aimed at educating personnel who perform an AIIMS incident management role in an AFAC member agency. Other industries that have crucial emergency management capabilities are also welcome to attend. Time: 8:30am - 12:30pm Friday, 5 September Location: Lion Harbourview Lounge Room 1

PDP 3:

Mission Command Master Class This program, designed for senior operational leaders of emergency response agencies, is premised on the foundational values of a Mission-Driven Culture and mission command as the safest, most efficient and most effective command philosophy during dynamic large-scale emergencies. Specific focus areas are on strategic and critical thinking and creating intent-based operations and planning systems. The program will present the business case of mission command, as well as case studies of mission command in action historically, as well as in recent emergency incidents. The Master Class will have hands-on exercises on the processes and principles that promote clear and concise leader’s intent as the foundation for aligned and adaptable action during a large incident. At the conclusion of the Master Class participants will have: • implemented the principles of the Mission Command program • enhanced their ability to build a common operating picture in a team environment • applied critical thinking in a strategic context • conducted intent based planning, resulting in more cohesive, adaptable and resilient organisations. Time: Post-conference 4:30pm - 6:30pm Thursday, 4 September 8:00am - 12:30pm Friday, 5 September Location: Lion Harbourview Lounge Room 2

PDP 2:

Introduction to the Emergency Management Industry The emergency management industry is complex and diverse. This workshop is designed to give those who are new to the industry a broad understanding of some key aspects of that diversity; some basic principles of fire behaviour (for those without a fire management background) and an overview of the various elements of community safety and the way this has evolved over time. The workshop will be delivered by experts from each of the fields and is particularly aimed at those who are seeking to put their research or role into a broader context. While the workshop is primarily aimed at students and researchers, it will also be valuable to those who have joined the industry from another area. Time: 8:30am - 12:30pm Friday, 5 September Location: Renouf Foyer 1

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

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PDP 4:

Navigating National Emergency Intelligence Feeds This workshop, hosted by the Emergency Management Spatial Information Network Australia (EMSINA), will follow the spatial information lifecycle for major hazards in Australia. It will demonstrate how information captured on the ground at the incident contributes to and feeds an information cycle that extends into the highest levels of decision support, including the National Situation Awareness Tool (NSAT) utilised within the National Crisis Coordination Centre. This is a scenario based workshop that will begin from first responders arriving on scene through to executive briefings. EMSINA members will demonstrate the use of current spatial information tools and technologies used by emergency volunteers and managers to display, capture and disseminate incident and environmental information that is a critical input into creating situational awareness. The workshop will also provide a hands on opportunity to try out some of the current technologies and applications used across Australian emergency management agencies with an added bonus of developing an understanding of current and future technologies used for information capture and dissemination from the workshop sponsor Motorola Solutions.

PDP 5:

International Disaster Response Law The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) identified many legal problems that continually arise during international disaster relief deployments. In response, the IFRC developed guidelines to facilitate international disaster assistance. These guidelines are being applied around the world but have had little attention in Australia and New Zealand. This workshop will introduce both the legal issues and the guidelines and encourage those involved in international emergency response to consider whether they are adequately prepared to deal with the issues both when sending assistance or when international assistance is flowing in. The session is highly relevant for managers of emergency services who are responsible for arranging international deployment. It is also suitable for members who may be asked to deploy internationally. Time:

8:30am - 12:30pm Friday, 5 September

Location: Fay Richwhite Room

Who should attend? This workshop is applicable to all those involved in emergency management, from first responders to executive decision makers, as everyone relies on the most appropriate, up to date information that provides a complete picture and understanding of the current situation. This workshop not only provides you an opportunity to learn, it also provides you with an opportunity to contribute your expertise and knowledge to influence future technology and application developments to better meet your information requirements. Time:

8:30am - 12:30pm Friday, 5 September

Location: Renouf Foyer 2

This workshop is proudly supported by Motorola Solutions.

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

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Field Study Tours Christchurch Earthquake Recovery Following on from the conference theme of learning from disasters and applying that learning to the future advancement of the industry, this Field Study Tour is aimed at providing delegates with an understanding of what the key players did following the Christchurch earthquakes. In particular, discussing what worked well and what didn’t, what lessons can be learnt and how emergency and recovery respondents arrived at the decisions made. As Christchurch is now well on the way to recovery, this tour will allow delegates to observe, three years after the event, a city in recovery phase. Delegates will also gain greater insight into: • How Christchurch got to where it is today • Why Christchurch is moving in the direction it is • The imperatives, including the risks and how these have been mitigated • The cultural and social impact on Christchurch and how this is being dealt with • The impact on business. Date:

National Crisis Management Centre, Wellington New Zealand is fundamentally different to Australia in its political and constitutional construction, having no states or territories. The purpose of this tour is to present an overview of how these arrangements work in New Zealand, particularly Wellington, as well as inform delegates how emergency management and response is conducted. Through visiting the National Crisis Management Centre, delegates will gain a better understanding of: • The risks and hazards facing New Zealand • The emergency planning and response relationships that exist in New Zealand • How large scale emergencies are coordinated in New Zealand. Date:

Friday, 5 September

Time:

9:30am - 12:00pm

Departure Point: Entrance to TSB Bank Arena

Thursday 4 September - Friday 5 September

Time: Depart 7:05pm Thursday, return 4:30pm Friday Departure Point: Air New Zealand check in counter, Wellington Airport (flight NZ 359) Trip Ends: Christchurch Airport or Christchurch CBD

Fraser Trucks Manufacturing Facility Fraser Fire & Rescue, a division of Fraser Engineering, is New Zealand’s largest fire appliance manufacturer. Their manufacturing facility is located approximately 25 kilometres north east of Wellington. Unlike many fire appliance manufactures, the majority of the components used in the construction of Fraser fire appliances are made on site in the state of the art manufacturing facility. During the visit delegates will be able to see and learn about the various stages of fire appliance manufacturing and the Fraser Engineering process, which will cover the following: • Initial appliance design and the 3D virtual design • Start of the art component manufacturing • The use of high tech laser cutting and manufacturing equipment • Powder coating processes The purpose of this activity is to give delegates the opportunity to gain an insight into what is involved in manufacturing a modern fire appliance from concept to completion and the machinery equipment used to do so. Date:

Friday, 5 September

Time:

9:00am - 12:00pm

Departure Point: Entrance to TSB Bank Arena

Upper South Island This Field Study Tour provides delegates with the opportunity to travel through the Marlborough and Nelson Regions, located at the top of the South Island of New Zealand, to view the unique make up fuel types, typography and fire risks. To begin, delegates will travel by ferry through the Marlborough Sounds with General Manager/Principal Rural Fire Officer Richard McNamara, to view the uniqueness and make-up of the Marlborough sounds. Richard will provide a brief on how forest and rural fire is administered and managed utilising a number of Volunteer Rural Fire Forces and a Rural Fire wardens system located throughout the sounds. Delegates will then meet with the Marlborough Kaikoura Enlarged Rural Fire District Governance Board and General Manager at Picton. Here delegates will be briefed on how the District is administered and managed, as well as on the benefits gained in 2012 from combining four small Rural Fire Authorities into one enlarged Rural Fire Authority with a governance board of stakeholder representatives. Travelling by bus from Picton through the Grove Track to Havelock, delegates will meet up with the Principal Rural Fire Officer for the Waimea Rural Fire Authority Ian Reade. Continuing by bus to Nelson, delegates will be briefed on plantation forestry in both regions and how the forestry industry is a major player in fire management within both regions. Next, delegates meet with the Waimea Rural Fire Authority Governance Board and Principal Rural Fire Officer and briefed on how the Authority and District is administered and managed. This District was formed in 2004 with the amalgamation of seven small Rural Fire Authorities into one regional enlarged Rural Fire Authority. Finally, delegates will be briefed on the use of the Fire Smart strategy through proactive action in protecting a small at risk bushfire prone community in the coastal settlement and holiday area of Sandy Bay. Date:

Saturday 6 September - Sunday 7 September

Time:

Depart 7:00am Saturday, return 1:00pm Sunday

Departure Point: Bluebridge Ferry Terminal, 50 Waterloo Quay, Wellington Trip Ends: Nelson Airport or Nelson CBD

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Kia Ora! (Hello)

Nau mai, haere mai ki Aotearoa – Welcome to New Zealand New Zealand has two official spoken languages, English and Mãori are woven into day-to-day life. During the conference you will probably hear some Mãori words used in conversation. The conference will also be officially opened with a short põwhiri (welcome) hosted by kaumatua (elders) from the local iwi (tribe). The põwhiri begins with a karanga (women’s calls of welcome) and includes a whaikõrero (formal speech) and waiata (song). Senior members of the tangata whenua (local iwi and New Zealand officials) will then formally greet representatives of the munuhiri (visitors/conference delegates) with a hongi (pressing of noses to signify the joining together of the two groups) and a hariru (handshake). The põwhiri will begin promptly at 8:30am. Please note delegates must be seated by 8:20am as there will be no admission to the plenary room while the ceremony is in progress. Some of the words or phrases you may hear during your time in Wellington could include: Kia ora – hello, hi haere mai – welcome Tënã koe – hello (to one person) Tënã koutou katoa – hello everyone Ka kite anõ – see you later Põneke – Wellington’s Mãori name Whãnau – family Ka pai – good

Wharewaka – the boatshed Wharewaka is also the name of the cafe just a bit further along the waterfront as it houses two very prized waka (canoes). We hope you enjoy your stay in Wellington and make the most of the activities available to conference delegates.

Official Conference Web App The official AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC 2014 web app, proudly supported by Vector Command, will keep you organised during the conference. Within the web app you can view the entire program, plan your own schedule, find abstracts and make notes during sessions that can be downloaded later. The web app will also provide you with: • Speaker abstracts and bios Links to the full papers as they become live during the presenter’s session • Venue and precinct maps • Sponsor & exhibitor information Downloading the AFAC & Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC 2014 web app is easy! Step 1 Copy http://afac-2014.m.asnevents.com.au to your browser or use this QR code (below). Step 2 You will be asked to install this web app onto your phone or tablet – tap the screen and the icon will appear on your home screen for future use. For further benefits and instructions for Android devices please see staff at the registration desk. You will need to know your Currinda login details. This is the email address you used to register for the conference and the password you created. If you need any help remembering your details, please see staff at the registration desk. BUT FIRST try your email address and password as your first name with no capitals.

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

www.afac.com.au/conference

General Information

All information is accurate at time of printing, but subject to change.

Venue TSB Bank Arena & Shed 6 Queens Wharf, Jervois Quay Wellington, New Zealand 6011 Ph: +64 4 801 4207 The Conference Registration Desk is located in the foyer of the TSB Bank Arena and the Trade Exhibition is located in the main TSB Bank Arena. The Research Forum and Main Conference sessions will be held in Shed 6, attached to the TSB Bank Arena. Entry is through the Trade Exhibition Area or foyer of the TSB Bank Arena. Breaks and catering for the Research Forum will be held in the TSB Bank Arena Upstairs Foyer for both morning tea and lunch and the Exhibition Hall during afternoon tea. All breaks and catering during the Main Conference will be held in the Exhibition Hall.

Registration The Research Forum registration is for Tuesday and includes: • entry to all sessions on Tuesday • all delegate materials (conference web app, name badge, satchel and handbook) • morning tea, afternoon tea and lunch on Tuesday • the Conference Welcome & Awards and Welcome Drinks on Tuesday commencing at 5.15pm The Conference Two Day Registration is registration for Wednesday and Thursday and includes: • entry to all sessions on Wednesday and Thursday • all delegate materials (conference web app, name badge, satchel and handbook) • morning tea, afternoon tea and lunch daily • the Conference Welcome & Awards and Welcome Drinks on Tuesday commencing at 5.15pm • the Conference Dinner commencing 6:30pm Wednesday at the Museum of New Zealand Te Papa Tongarewa

Name Badges Delegates are required to wear their name tags to all conference and catered sessions. Uniformed security is in attendance on the doors of the Trade Exhibition and name badges are required to gain access. At the conclusion of the conference there will be a box at the registration desk to place your lanyards and name badges in if you do not wish to keep them.

Wifi Information Visitors to the TSB Bank Arena and Shed 6 will have access to free wireless internet. This service is shared by all conference delegates, event attendees and general public in the building, and is designed for basic internet browsing, web based emails, social media sites (Facebook, Twitter) and App use.

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

Dress Code The dress code is smart casual for the entire conference including the Welcome Function. Uniforms are not required.

The Speaker Preparation Room On arrival at the conference, speakers should let the registration desk know they are speaking at the conference. Presentations are to be loaded in the Speaker Preparation Room. This is located in the Board Room on the ground floor (behind the Conference Registration Desk on the way in to the Exhibition Hall). Presenters are asked to load their slides at least a full session in advance of their presentation. A technician will be on hand to assist with any transfer/loading issues and to help you check your presentation.

Poster Viewing Research Forum A Poster session is scheduled for the Research Forum on Tuesday from 10.30 – 11.00am in the TSB Bank Arena Upstairs Foyer. Poster presenters must remain with their poster to answer questions and engage with colleagues for the duration of this session. Posters will be hung for you and will remain hanging for the duration of the conference. They will be moved to the foyer adjacent to the AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC booth for Wednesday and Thursday. The poster numbers are listed later in this handbook and correspond with the appropriate number on the display panels. Main Conference There is a designated poster session for general posters programmed for Wednesday from 10.45 – 11.45am during the morning tea break in the foyer adjacent to the AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC booth. Posters will be hung on your behalf on Tuesday afternoon and we ask that presenters remove their poster by the end of lunch on Thursday. The poster numbers are listed later in this handbook and correspond with the appropriate number on the display panels.

Poster Voting Don’t forget to vote for your favourite poster! There are two ways to vote: 1. Via Twitter - send a tweet with the poster number you want to vote for using the hashtag #afac2014 2. Fill in a voting form available at the AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC booth and place in the barrel provided. Remember, only one vote per delegate.

www.afac.com.au/conference

Social Program Welcome Function The traditional Welcome Function will be held after the Conference Welcome & Awards at 6.00pm on Tuesday in the Trade Exhibition area (TSB Bank Arena). There will be finger food and refreshments and a chance to network with delegates. Name badges or purchased tickets are required to gain admission. All full conference delegates are entitled to attend and can gain access with your name badge. Additional tickets can be purchased at the registration desk. Conference Dinner - “A night at Te Papa Museum” The conference dinner will be staged on Wednesday 3rd September at 6:30pm. The event, hosted at the Museum of New Zealand Te Papa Tongarewa, 55 Cable Street, Wellington (a 10 minute walk from the venue) is proudly sponsored by Vector Command. An enchanting evening awaits us at the world-renowned “Te Papa Tongarewa” Museum - “the place of treasures of this land”. Te Papa will take us inside the New Zealand experience, and we will journey through the cultural spectacle offered through the dynamic collections in Art, History, Pacific, Mãori, and Natural Environment. Experience culinary delights as you explore; be entertained and enjoy each other’s company. This will be a night to remember. Dress Code: Cocktail / Jacket required Enjoy Museum Walking Tours – consider appropriate footwear. All full registrations include the dinner however, you will need to bring the dinner ticket located behind your name badge. Extra dinner tickets for exhibitors, partners and guests can be purchased at the registration desk. Conference dinner proudly supported by

Delegate Feedback The annual conference is the major event around knowledge sharing and learning for the industry and the large and varied program reflects the breadth and complexity of the business of AFAC Members. AFAC and the Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC are determined to continually improve and refine the conference for delegates. Following the conference, you will receive an invitation to complete our online Post Conference Delegate Survey. We value your feedback and hope you will take the time to fill in the survey, as the results are used to inform the planning for future AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC conferences.

Accommodation Intercontinental Hotel 2 Grey Street, Wellington 6011 Ph: +64 800 863 7818 Museum Hotel Wellington 90 Cable Street, Wellington 6011 Ph: +64 4802 8900 Novotel Wellington 133-137 The Terrace, Wellington 6011 Ph: +64 4918 1900 James Cook Hotel Grand Chancellor 147 The Terrace, Wellington 6011 Ph: +64 4499 9500 CQ Quality Hotel 213-223 Cuba Street, Wellington 6141 Ph: 043852153 Ibis Wellington 153 Featherson Street, Wellington, 6011 Ph: +64 4496 1880 Amora Hotel Wellington 170 Wakefield Street, Wellington 6011 Ph: +64 4473 3900 TravelodgeHotel Wellington 2-6 Gilmore Terrace, Wellington 6011 Ph: +64 44999911

Coupon Book A number of trade exhibitors at the conference will reward you for visiting their booth. Inside your satchel you will find a coupon book, participating exhibitors are offering giveaways and prizes to delegates in exchange for the corresponding coupon. Visit them all and you won’t miss a thing!

Join the Conversation Keep up to date with the latest conference news on Twitter by following @AFACnews and @BNHCRC. Did you just hear from a speaker who said something thought provoking that you would like to share with other delegates? Did a panel session spark your imagination? Let us know what you think using the hashtag #afac2014. Tweets will be displayed at the AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC booth. Just remember that in line with AFAC’s Social Media Policy, available on the website, tweets are to be respectful of speakers and other delegates.

YHA Wellington 292 Wakefield Street, Te Aro, Wellington Ph: +64 4801 7280 All accommodation accounts need to be settled when delegates check out. This is the responsibility of delegates.

Other Insurance The hosts and organisers are not responsible for personal accidents, any travel costs, or the loss of private property and will not be liable for any claims. Delegates requiring insurance should make their own arrangements. Smoking Smoking is not permitted in the venue. Mobile Phones Please ensure your mobile phone is turned to silent during any session you attend. Message Board A message board will be available at the registration desk on the first floor foyer. Disclaimer The opinions of the speakers do not reflect the opinions or position of AFAC or the Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC.

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

www.afac.com.au/conference

Exhibitor Listing Organisation

3M Australia Pty Ltd

Valerie Woods

Email Address

Contact Number(s)

vwoods@mmm.com

P: 02 9498 9409

Booth (s)

108 75, 88

A W Hainsworth

Julie Greenough

juliegreenough@hainsworth.co.uk

P: +44 113 3955638

ADA

Sarah Goddard

sarah.goddard@ada.com.au

P: +64 021 069 3649

AFAC

Lynette White

lynette.white@afac.com.au

P: 03 9419 2388

Foyer

Akron Brass Company

Nick Foran

nforan@akronbrass.com

P: 02 4972 0880

APC Techsafe

Dean Pritchard

dean@apc.co.nz

P: 09 827 7897

Ashdown-Ingram

Shane Kellie

skellie@ashdown-ingram.com.au

P: 07 3358 9400

AtSource

Miriam Chisnall

miriam@atsource.co.nz

P: 09 294 7184

Australia Emergency Management Institute

Claire Green

Jessica.Ennis@ag.gov.au

P: 0408 407 154

Auto Electrical Imports

Karen Oâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;Neil

sales@aeimports.com

P: 07 3274 3077

48, 49

BMedical

Jessica Bott

sales@bmedical.com.au

P: 1300 767 279

rogilvie@britaxae.com.au

P: 07 3000 1959

55 69, 94 Foyer

Britax Automotive Equipment

Richard Ogilvie

112

Bruck Textile Technologies Pty Ltd

Elle Ozturk

eozturk@bruck.com.au

P: 03 9418 1216

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

Vaia Smirneos

vaia.smirneos@bnhcrc.com.au

P: 03 9412 9600

Chubb NZ

David Hodgson

david.hodgson@chubb.co.nz

P: +64 6 350 9985

CQ University

Helen Keen-Dyer

h.keendyer@cqu.edu.au

P: 07 41507154

Critchlow

Jacob Pescini

jacob.pescini@critchlow.co.nz

P: +64 4 910 6221

Denstock

Don Milne

don.milne@denstock.co.nz

P: 0424 660 142

DEUTZ AUSTRALIA P/L

Dash Rayat

rayat.d@deutz.com

P: 03 9549 8400

113

DrĂ¤ger Safety Pacific Pty Ltd

Jason Harb

jason.harb@draeger.com

P: 03 9265 5061

34, 35, 36, 37, 38

Eagle Technology Group

Megan Buchanan

Megan_Buchanan@eagle.co.nz

P: +64 4 8021413

EMSINA

Steve Forbes

Steve.Forbes@act.gov.au

P: 02 6205 5235

TJackson@ericksonaviation.com

P: +1 503 505 5802

59 29

Erickson

Tamara Jackson

70, 71, 72

103 121, 122 120

Ferno Australia Pty Ltd

Di Minnis

dminnis@ferno.com.au

P: 07 3881 4999

Fire Fighting Technologies

Arnaud Diemont

arnaud.diemont@ffti.com.au

P: 02 9091 0360

Fire Protection Technologies

David Boff

david@fire-protection.net.nz

P: 09 415 5488

Fraser Fire and Rescue Ltd

Stuart Coulton

stuart.coulton@fraser.org.nz

P: +64 21468923

Fujitsu and Capita CCS

Mitchell Slater

Mitchell.slater@au.fujitsu.com

P: 03 9924 3698

24 62, 63

105, 106 45, 46, 47, 64, 65, 66, 67, T2, T3

GAAM Emergency Products

Amina Bekric

rhaddad@tycoint.com

P: 02 9947 7421

Global Risk Innovations Inc.

Nelson Lawrence

nelson@globalriskinnovations.com

P: +1 519 820 6021

GME

Paul Cuff

pcuff@gme.net.au

P: +64 09 274 09 58

Harcor Security Seals

Peter Schaede

Peter@harcor.com.au

P: 02 9454 4200

HATZ Diesel Australia

Jeff Doughman

jdoughman@hatz.com.au

P: 02 9743 8288

Hazard Systems Pty Ltd

Ray Buttigieg

rbuttigieg@hazard.com.au

P: 03 6332 2500

Hino Motor Sales Australia

Tom Ayrton

tom.ayrton@hino.com.au

P: 02 9914 6670

12, 13, 14

Honeywell Analytics

Matt Nardella

matt.nardella@honeywell.com

P: 03 9464 2772

111

ICOM NZ

Beverley Mayle

beverley@icom.co.nz

P: +64 21 081 28055

brucegrady01@gmail.com

P: 0427 627 750

Intelligent Pathways

Contact Person (s)

Bruce Grady

Isuzu Australia Limited

Selwyn Harris

selwyn.harris@isuzu.net.au

P: 03 9644 6628

Iveco Trucks New Zealand

Keith Tuffery

Keith.Tuffery@au.iveco.com

P: +64 274 891 761

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

100

9, T5 74, T4

www.afac.com.au/conference

Organisation

Contact Person (s)

Email Address

Contact Number(s)

Booth (s)

Jaedon Enterprises

Mike May

mikemay@jaedon.co.nz

P: +64 9 263 4566

104

Ke Kelit

Els Nagtegaal

els@kekelit.co.nz

P: +64 27 5262666

123

Korea Forest Service (IWFC 2015)

Younghee Lee

wildfire@forest.go.kr

P: +82 42 481 4260

124, 125

Landgate-Firewatch

Mike Steber

mike.steber@landgate.wa.gov.au

P: 08 9387 0341

LHD Group Australia

Lauren Smith

lauren.smith@lhd-group.com

08 8139 7777

116, 117

Motorola Solutions

Brooke Modd

DPXJ67@motorolasolutions.com

P: 03 9847 7629

89, 90

MSA (Aust.) Pty Limited

Annabel Martins

annabel.martins@msasafety.com

P: 02 9688 0306

118, 119

Newlans Coachbuilders

Steve Newlan

newlans@bigpond.net.au

P: 08 9444 1777

95, 96

khartman@noggin.com.au

P: 02 9219 8828

73 42 15

Noggin IT

Kay Hartman

Oliver Footwear

Brett Huggins

odette.parker@honeywell.com

P: 03 5320 0200

ORH

Graham Holland

graham.h@orhltd.com

P: + 44 1189596623

Pac Fire Australia

Keith Ward

keith@pacfire.com.au

P: 07 3441 7100

43, 68

Paskal / QCD

Russel Fernandes

rfernandes@paskal.com.au

P: 03 9588 8800

PBI Performance Products Inc

Ian Callaghan

ian.callaghan@pbiproducts.com

P: +44 332 290466

Prepack Limited

Craig McDonald

craig.m@prepack.co.nz

P: +64 3500942

107

Protector Alsafe

Darren Gallagher

darren.gallagher@protectoralsafe.com.au P: 03 8369 2000

51, 52

PSL Fire & Safety

Stuart Hampton

stuart@pslfireandsafety.co.nz

P: +64 9 8188048

PT Rescue Pty Ltd

Peter Jenkin

peterjenkin@pthydraulics.com.au

P: 03 9562 8800

10, 11

mark@quartermaster.com.au

P: 02 9614 6404

50 97, 98 87

Quartermaster Australia

Mark Costello

79, 80, 81

Quik Corp Fire Engineering

Andrew Geue

andrew@quikcorp.biz

P: 07 5493 8944

Raindance Systems

Rob Stevenson

admin@raindancesystems.com.au

P: 08 9417 8680

Safety Components

Sylvia Holmes

sholmes@safetycomponents.com

P: + 1 864 2802693

SAI Global

Richard Donarski

Richard.Donarski@saiglobal.com

P: 02 8206 6691

Sasgar Fire and Rescue

Sarah Brown

marketing@sasgar.com.au

P: 07 3869 7001

18, 19, 126

Scania Australia

Ron Szulc

ron.szulc@scania.com.au

P: 03 9217 3300

2, 3, 4, 5, T6

Scott Safety

Kelly Valentine

kvalentine@tycoint.com

P: 02 8718 2191

53, 54

SEM Fire and Rescue Pty.Ltd.

Jon Julian

jjulian@semfr.com.au

P: 03 5339 0241

Solberg

Dave Pelton

dave.pelton@solbergfoam.com

P: 09 2059399447

pcuff@gme.net.au

P: +64 09 274 09

Standard Communications

Paul Cuff

32, 33

Stewart and Heaton Clothing

Steve Molloy

Michael.Richardson@shcc.com.au

P: 03 92775555

TenCate

Angela Rogers

a.rogers@tencate.com

P: + 1 678 9517445

Texport

Matthias Hinterreiter Matthias.Hinterreiter@texport.at

P: +43 (662) 423244 271

The Workwear Group

David Llewellyn

pdenby@pacbrands.com.au

P: 03 8769 4541

39, 40

ThermoGel Forest Systems

Colin Coleman

colincoleman@forestsystems.com.au P: 0417 056 295

TracPlus Global

Stan Jones

stan.jones@tracplus.com

P: +64 34510244

US Digital Designs, Inc.

Dominic Magnoni

dmagnoni@usdd.com

P: +1 602 687 1730

Vector Command

Rob Munro

rob.munro@vectorcommand.com

P: +44 2392 410400

85, 86

W S Darley & Co.

Kevin Oâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;Sullivan

kevin@ruawhetu.co.nz

P: +64 9 570 2751

76, 77

WL Gore & Associates (UK) Ltd

Suzanne Prince

sprince@wlgore.com

P: +44 7867906277

Wormald

Mike Baird

mbaird@tycoint.com

P: +64 96350632

Zoll Medical ANZ

Charlotte Isaac

cisaac@zoll.com

P: 1800 605 555

91, 92 101, 114, 115 22

7 109, 110

102 83, 84 57

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

MAIN ENTRANCE

Scania

125

124

Dr채ger Safety Pacific

The Workwear Group

Kestrel/ Erickson

120

118

PBI Performance Products Inc

48 62

Auto Electrical Imports

116

114

TenCate

115

51 59

Protector Alsafe

76 86

W S Darley & Co.

113

112

111

FPT

AW Hainsworth

ThermoGel Fujitsu AtSource Texport Forest and Systems Capita CCS

107

Prepack Limited

Harcor

109 108 US Digital Designs, Inc.

110

Britax Automotive Equipment

PT Rescue

PSL Fire & Safety

Wormald

102 103 104 105 106

Deutz APC Honeywell Australia Techsafe Analytics

GME

Isuzu Trucks

Zoll AshdownMedical Ingram ANZ

Scott Safety

Akron Brass Co.

HATZ Critchlow Ferno Diesel Australia Australia

Quartermaster Australia

Raindance Vector Command Systems Eagle WL Gore & Technology Jaedon Associates (UK) Group Enterprises

Hazard TracPlus LandgateSystems Global Firewatch

SAI Fire Solberg Intelligent Global Fighting Pathways Technologies

ADA

100 101

Global Risk CQ Uni Innov. Inc.

Motorola Solutions

Iveco Noggin IT Trucks NZ

BMedical GAAM Emergency Products

3M Aust

Scania

LHD Group Australia

117

Quik Corp Fire Engineering

MSA Australia

119

Stewart and Heaton Clothing

Chubb NZ

Paskal/QCD

Newlans Coachbuilders

Fraser Fire and Rescue

Through to Meeting Rooms

AEMI

Safety Components

Bruck Textile Technologies

Isuzu Type 4

Iveco Type 2

Fraser (Scania)

126

Sasgar Fire and Rescue

Ke Kelit

123

SEM Fire and Rescue

Oliver Footwear Pac Fire Australia

IWFC 2015

122

EMSINA

121

Fraser Man

Truck spaces

NZFS

Sasgar Fire and Rescue

Denstock

ICOM NZ

ORH

Hino

www.afac.com.au/conference

Trade Exhibition - Floorplan

AFAC & BNHCRC Stand

www.afac.com.au/conference

Conference Abstracts & Posters - Contents

page

Oral Abstracts................................................................................................................................................................... 30-67 The speaker abstracts contained here are in the order of their appearance in the program by session. Included are keynote and invited speakersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; abstracts as well as panel and oral speaker abstracts.

Research Forum................................................................................................................................................................. 30 AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference............................................................... 44

Poster Abstracts..................................................................................................................................................................... 69

Posters form an important part of the AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference program.

Poster abstracts are submitted for the Research Forum and two-day conference and can be viewed in the upstairs TSB Bank Arena Foyer during breaks during the Research Forum, and the DrĂ¤ger Knowledge Lounge, located in the TSB Bank Arena Foyer on Wednesday and Thursday. The poster numbers listed here correspond with the number on the display panels.

Abstract Index by Author................................................................................................................................................ 84 This index includes all Invited, Oral, Panel and General Poster abstract authors. Authors are listed alphabetically to enable a quick search for abstracts.

Poster Lists.......................................................................................................................................................................... 86-89 The poster numbers listed here correspond with the number on the display panels.

AFAC........................................................................................................................................................................................... Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC........................................................................................................................ DEPI Projects....................................................................................................................................................................... Bushfire CRC.......................................................................................................................................................................

86 87 89 89

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

www.afac.com.au/conference

Oral Abstracts Research Forum 1

Flaws in our understanding and perception of flood risk

Managing severe weather – progress and opportunities

Rory Nathan University of Melbourne/Jacobs, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Jeff Kepert Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

The floods that occurred in Western Australia and down the east coast of Australia between December 2010 and January 2011 had shocking consequences for the community: many towns were evacuated, property was destroyed, a city was inundated, and 37 lives were lost. Australia is truly a ‘land of droughts and flooding rains’, with periods of severe drought followed by extensive flooding playing an important and defining role in shaping our way of life. But Australia, it appears, is also a country that is easily surprised, and outraged by natural disasters. We are quick to search for someone to blame, even if it means reversing the burden of proof. Flood risk is immensely difficult to forecast, but it is more easily predicted. There are lessons here for how we estimate flood risk, in how we manage and communicate risk, and in how we accommodate uncertainty.

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

2 Resilient Disaster Response and Recovery: Lessons from Social Science Research Kathleen Tierney Natural Hazards Centre - University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States Resilience is now considered to be an essential element in disaster loss reduction. But what does resilience look like in the aftermath of disaster? What patterns and activities do researchers consider to be indicative of adaptive resilience, and how do those capabilities develop? Focusing on a range of different types of disasters and associated response and recovery challenges, this presentation will review research on the role of emergent groups and networks, improvisation and innovation, and social capital in enhancing post-disaster resilience. The presentation will also highlight factors that constitute barriers to resilient response and recovery. These topics are covered in more detail in the speaker’s new book, The Social Roots of Risk: Producing Disasters, Promoting Resilience.

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

John Bally Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, TAS, Australia Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Severe weather often becomes high impact weather when certain tipping points are reached. Rivers burst their banks, houses lose their roofs, and bushfires exceed suppression capacity as thresholds are crossed. The high adverse impact events tend to be rare, because society and the environment naturally tend to adapt to more frequent events. They are often small scale, or a relatively small part of a larger system. And they are often subject to considerable forecast uncertainty. Managing the impacts of severe weather is therefore about managing risk. The results of exceeding one of these thresholds are profoundly different to merely approaching it, but the differences in the meteorology may fall within current forecast uncertainty. Balancing the costs of overpreparation and underpreparation in the presence of such uncertainty is a formidable task. Managing risk when information is uncertain requires that we move from considering a single, deterministic forecast that is the best estimate of what will happen, to consideration of a range of possibilities that reliably reflects the forecast uncertainty. We need to consider not just multiple scenarios, but also their relative likelihood. This talk will review progress from around the world into objectively providing such information. Making effective use of this richer but more complex information stream is a challenge, and this presentation will also consider progress in this area.

www.afac.com.au/conference

The heatwaves of the 2013/2014 Australian summer

Urban search and rescue operations in tropical climates

Robert J B Fawcett The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Docklands, VIC, Australia

Matt Brearley and Ian Norton National Critical Care and Trauma Response Centre, Darwin, NT, Australia

Bushfire CRC, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Michael Hutton National Critical Care and Trauma Response Centre, Darwin, NT, Australia

John Nairn South Australian Regional Office, Bureau of Meteorology, Adelaide, SA, Australia Heatwaves represent a significant natural hazard in Australia, arguably more hazardous to life than bushfires, tropical cyclones and floods. In the 2008/2009 summer, for example, many more lives were lost to heatwaves than to that summer’s bushfires, which were among the worst in the history of the Australian nation. Yet for many years, these other forms of natural disaster have received much greater public attention than heatwaves. This might be changing in Australia however, as health authorities increasingly use weather forecast information to become proactive in providing advice to the community on how to mitigate the effects of heatwaves. Significant community engagement took place during the 2013/2014 Australian summer, a summer which generated some significant heatwaves, comparable to those of 2009, 2004, 1939 and 1908. In January 2014, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology introduced a pilot national heatwave forecasting service, to issue forecasts of forthcoming non-severe, severe and extreme heatwaves. The service is based on the excess heat factor (EHF) or heatwave intensity concept, which quantifies the extent of the temperature elevation during a heatwave in a manner relevant to the expected impact of the heatwave on human health. The forecasting system makes use of both daily maximum temperatures and daily minimum temperatures, the latter providing implicit information about average humidity levels, without humidity being included explicitly in the calculation. This presentation will document the heatwaves of the 2013/2014 Australian summer, in terms of the EHF metric, and will describe how well they were forecast by the new service.

Daryl Rush Northern Territory Fire and Rescue Service, Darwin, NT, Australia Steve Smith Queensland Fire and Emergency Services, Brisbane, QLD, Australia Hector Fuentes Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, QLD, Australia Introduction The physiological burden of long duration Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) operations in the tropics is poorly understood. Methods Sixteen trained USAR personnel (averaging 90.4kg, 1.81m, 39.6yrs) participated in a 24 hour simulated exercise conducted in November 2013 in northern Australia. Participants provided written informed consent for this study and were recruited from NT Fire and Rescue and QLD Fire and Emergency Services, resulting in eight heat acclimatised (HA) and eight non-heat acclimatised (NHA) responders. Physiological monitoring included core temperature through the use of ingestible thermometers based on established protocols1. Results The initial four hour shift (ambient 34.0˚C, 48% relative humidity) resulted in 15 of the 16 participants exceeding the ISO98862 core temperature safe working limit of 38.5˚C. From the 80th minute of the initial shift, HA sustained a significantly (p<0.01) higher core temperature (38.6˚C) than the NHA cohort (38.1˚C) despite both groups perceiving their body temperature equally as hot. Following the initial shift, only two participants exceeded a core temperature of 38.5˚C, likely due to crews suffering from the heat strain endured during the first four hours. Seven (five NHA, two HA) of the 16 participants presented to medical staff during this period with symptoms of headache, nausea and exhaustion. Conclusion Pacing of effort was apparent for non-heat acclimatised personnel. Year round heat acclimatisation through physical training is likely to improve operational capability of deployed teams. More frequent rotation of crews to permit monitoring through a rehabilitation sector, inclusive of active cooling options, is also likely to reduce physiological strain and heat related illness during deployment to tropical regions. Brearley MB, Heaney MF, Norton IN (2013). Physiological responses of medical team members to a simulated emergency in tropical field conditions. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 28(2): 139-44

International Standards Organisation (2008). Evaluation of thermal strain by physiological measurements (ISO 9886). [Standard] Geneva, Switzerland

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Oral Abstracts continued Research Forum 6

Building community resilience to natural hazards in northern Australia

Building New Zealand new migrants’ safety and post-disaster resilience

Andrew Campbell, Jackie Gould and Bev Sithole Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT, Australia

Julie A N Warren Julie Warren and Associates Ltd, Paekakariki, New Zealand

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

This paper is informed by two research projects that focus on (i) improving fire services’ communication channels with new settlers and (ii) identifying factors that build postdisaster resilience. Findings show sufficient overlap between the principles of good communication and the attributes of resilience to suggest that fire services’ development of effective communication approaches for reaching new migrant groups could also help build their post-disaster resilience.

North Australia is dominated by natural hazards, and populated by less than 360,000 people living in communities of varying degrees of remoteness, from ‘outer regional’ to ‘very remote’. Their capabilities to manage bushfires and natural hazards are restricted by poor infrastructure and limited human capital especially in Indigenous communities. Low population densities and poor communications mean that even relatively large communities have almost no formal emergency management capacity. There is no “Plan B”. Natural hazards are being amplified by climate change, with fires likely to be larger and more frequent, on going sea level rise, more destructive cyclones and more days of severe heat stress, with consequent risks to economic productivity, infrastructure and human health and wellbeing. Improving community resilience to bushfire and natural hazards in the north is a high priority, but approaches that might apply in southern Australia are unlikely to work in the unique demographic, ecological and climatic context of the northern third of the continent. This paper will explore potential pathways to improve community preparedness, response and recovery capabilities in remote communities, and broader implications for public policy and government agencies in northern Australia, with reference to the research portfolio being developed in the northern hub of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. The relevance of such ideas in neighbouring countries to Australia’s north will also be discussed.

7 Out of sight, out of mind: How can we increase the disaster resilience of homeless people? Danielle Every and Kirrilly Thompson Central Queensland University, Rockhampton, QLD, Australia Every night in New Zealand, one person in every 120 people is homeless. A quarter of those who are homeless are children. In Australia these numbers are even higher. People experiencing homelessness have been identified as a vulnerable group in relation to natural disasters. Research in the US suggests that people experiencing homelessness are more at risk during natural disasters because they have limited access to the economic, social and community resources needed for preparation, evacuation and full recovery (Wisner, 1998; Edgington, 2009; Enarson & Fordham, 2001). However, in Australasia, we know very little about the unique vulnerabilities of people experiencing homelessness, nor about specific, targeted interventions that increase their resilience to natural disasters. This paper provides an overview of research on the vulnerability of homeless people. It identifies important issues to consider when planning responses to disasters which include homeless people. It also provides suggestions for how we might support greater disaster resilience for people experiencing homelessness. Finally, the paper outlines what we still need to know about homelessness, vulnerability and resilience to increase their inclusion in disaster management.

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Fire services are aware that as New Zealand becomes more culturally diverse, they need to find better ways to reach communities with a diversity of backgrounds, languages and experiences. Such communication is essential given the vulnerability of many new migrants (e.g. refugees, permanent and temporary workers, international students) to fire and other risks. Interest in community resilience in the face of adverse events such as earthquakes, climate change, economic restructuring and bushfires has been heightened by New Zealand’s recent Canterbury earthquakes. Attributes of resilience have been identified to include: community participation; individual and collective confidence in community action; development of collective problem solving skills; knowledge of the collective resources of a community; effective local leadership; community trust in each other and in their institutions and leaders; and individual and community empowerment so that people feel able to draw on their own and others capabilities and resources. This paper explores the relationship between these key elements of resilience and principles underlying communication best practice, which stress the value of relationship building, trust, interagency collaboration, working within and building on existing community processes; and aligning messages with community priorities and needs. It also discusses the importance of developing organisations’ cultural diversity so that they better reflect the cultural diversity of their communities.

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Estimating the impacts of natural hazards on property and building losses

Disruption of critical infrastructure during prolonged natural disasters

Rob van den Honert, Katharine Haynes, Ryan Crompton and Lucinda Coates Risk Frontiers, North Ryde, NSW, Australia

Emma Phillips Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

Recent events such as the Canterbury earthquakes in New Zealand, Queensland floods in Australia and the Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in Japan, have highlighted the vulnerability of infrastructure and essential services to disruption from natural disasters.

This research project will include a timeline examination of the historical economic costs of property and building losses due to natural hazards in Australia. The project will analyse normalised insurance losses, which effectively estimate the insured losses as if past events were to impact present-day society, a process that must be carried out in order to have an ‘apples versus apples’ comparison of event losses over time. Thus normalisation refers to the process of adjusting historical losses for known societal changes (e.g. numbers of homes, the value of these homes, and improvements in building codes and construction). At present the only publically available source of natural hazard loss information is the widely-cited Bureau of Transport Economics report Economic Costs of Natural Disasters in Australia – Report 103, 2001, which was heavily based upon incorrect insurance loss data, and used an inadequate normalisation methodology. The project will re-examine this work using information up to 2016 contained in: • Risk Frontiers’ PerilAUS historical natural hazard database of the incidence (e.g. occurrence, frequency, magnitude, affected locations, etc.) and consequences (property damage and fatalities, etc.) of ten natural hazard categories (consisting of over 6,500 separate events at over 12,000 locations), and • The Insurance Council of Australia’s (ICA) Historical Disaster Statistics, a list based on submissions to the ICA following natural catastrophe events incurring insured costs in excess of $10 million. This presentation will focus on the planned methodology, particularly the normalisation process. An analysis of bushfire (1) property and building losses due to bushfire, and (2) frequencies of damaging bushfires, both nationally and for each state and territory, will be presented to illustrate the methodology. Future work in this project will include a full analysis of property and building losses due to tropical cyclones, flood, earthquake, tsunami, severe storm and bushfire. The analysis will examine spatial losses due to each peril, and temporal changes in hazard impacts, and will provide a natural priority ranking of natural hazard risks.

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

Prolonged natural disasters can impact surrounding areas weeks to months after the initial event; causing vast and on going disruption to utility, transport and communication networks; infrastructure that is vitally important for everyday living, the economy and emergency response groups. The quake stricken Canterbury region of New Zealand endured thousands of disruptive aftershocks that continued for over two years following the initial earthquake in 2010. These aftershocks contributed to delays in repair, rebuilding activities, and caused significant additional damage. Our growing reliance on infrastructure and technology, along with the strong interdependent nature of these critical services, can potentially turn one failure into a cascading disaster. Local impacts to critical infrastructure can also lead to the interruption of essential services in regions that were not directly impacted by the physical hazard event. It has never been more important to understand network vulnerabilities and to analyse the cost of long term disruption, both social and economic. Whilst significant work has gone into understanding the direct impacts from natural hazards, less emphasis has been placed on understanding the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, including indirect and long-term disruption. This presentation attempts to bridge that gap by addressing some key research questions below: • What portion of contingent business interruption loss is caused by the disruption of critical infrastructure? • Can the interconnectedness of critical services lead to a cascade of failures? • What influences network recovery and how long can it take to rebuild? • How long can impacts of a natural hazard event last? • What is the cost of long term network disruption?

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Oral Abstracts continued Research Forum 11

Protecting and managing critical infrastructure under a changing climate: roles, responsibilities and the allocation of risk

Mitigating the effects of severe fires, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts

Karen Hussey and Steve Dovers The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

Imtiaz Dharssi Bureau of Meteorology / The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Docklands, VIC, Australia

Critical infrastructure underpins the delivery of essential services such as power, water, health, communications systems and banking, and as such it is vital to the way of life that we know and value. However, a range of risks can damage or destroy critical infrastructure, as well as disrupt the essential services that are provided by these assets, networks and supply chains. One such risk is that posed by natural disasters such as bushfires, floods, cyclones and storm surges; a risk which is likely to increase with the impact of climate change.

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Knowledge of landscape dryness is critical for the management and warning of fires, floods, heatwaves and landslips. This project will address fundamental limitations in our ability to prepare for these events. Currently, landscape dryness is estimated using simplified soil moisture accounting systems developed in the 1960’s. Similarly, flood prediction, runoff potential and water catchment/dam management also are not using the best available science and technology.

In 2010, the Australian Government released its Critical Infrastructure Resilience Strategy, which stressed that “the best way to enhance the resilience of critical infrastructure is to partner with owners and operators to share information, raise the awareness of dependencies and vulnerabilities, and facilitate collaboration to address any impediments.” While that strategy, and similar initiatives such as the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience, provides a useful framework to guide action, there remain a range of peculiarities, perverse incentives, and governance barriers which need to be identified and thoughtthrough if Australia’s critical infrastructure is indeed to become more resilient to current and future risks. These impediments exist particularly in relation to (i) the allocation of risk associated with different types of infrastructure and the ownership and management arrangements thereof (ii) the impacts to critical infrastructure from different natural hazards and (iii) the role and responsibilities of State and Commonwealth governments, even where they neither own nor manage the affected critical infrastructure.

This research will examine the use of detailed land surface models, satellite measurements and ground based observations for the monitoring and prediction of landscape dryness. The new information will be calibrated for use within existing fire and flood forecasting systems.

This paper identifies governance-related barriers to managing emerging climate risks in selected infrastructure sectors. Specifically, the authors will present key insights in relation to: a. Where governance arrangements may need to be strengthened or altered in order to promote more effective collaboration in managing shared or cascading risks; b. Where governance arrangements may need to be strengthened or altered in order to promote infrastructure adaptation, to reduce future risks from a changing climate; c. Where the allocation of risk is unclear or provides perverse incentives; and d. What the respective roles of the Commonwealth and state governments are under different scenarios and where further clarity may be needed.

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An inter-comparison will be performed of the traditional Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and Soil Dryness Index (SDI) with weather prediction models, satellite measurements, ground based measurements, and rainfall-runoff models. Soil moisture from weather prediction and reanalysis will be calibrated for the calculation of a high resolution historical dataset of KBDI and SDI. These datasets will be a valuable resource for researchers working on fire climatologies across Australia. The outputs of this project will improve Australia’s ability to manage multiple hazard types and create a more resilient community, by developing a state of the art, world’s best practice in soil moisture analysis that underpins flood, fire and heatwave forecasting. Longer term work will explore the use of multi-model predictions and data assimilation to forecast soil dryness indices for operational application to fire, flood and heatwave hazards. The vegetation and soil parameterisations in current land surface models will be developed to match Australian conditions.

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Modelling the fire weather of the Coonabarabran fire of 13 January 2013

The effects of fire-plume dynamics on the lateral and longitudinal spread of long-range spotting

Robert J B Fawcett, William Thurston, Jeffrey D Kepert and Kevin J Tory The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Docklands, VIC, Australia

William Thurston, Kevin J Tory, Robert J. B Fawcett and Jeff D Kepert The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Bushfire CRC, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Claire Yeo The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Docklands, VIC, Australia

The lofting of firebrands from bushfires into a background flow can lead to spotting downwind of the fire front. Spotting is a hazardous phenomenon because it leads to both unpredictable and accelerated fire spread, as winds aloft are often in a different direction from and faster than the near-surface winds. Here we use a two-stage modelling system to address some of the uncertainty associated with spotting, by quantifying the lateral and longitudinal spread in the landing location of potential firebrands and how this spread is affected by the dynamics of the fire plume.

Michael Logan New South Wales Regional Office, Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia We will exhibit state-of-the-art high-resolution numerical weather prediction simulations and vertical cross sections of radar imagery for Sunday 13 January 2013, with a specific focus on the region of the Coonabarabran fire which started at around 4:00pm on 12 January in the Warrumbungle National Park. The simulations show a complicated range of meteorology including weather features that affect fire behaviour critical for firefighter safety. Features such as thunderstorm outflow gust fronts are displayed in the simulations in the north westerly wind ahead of the main wind change, together with boundary-layer rolls, and sea breeze like wind changes proceeding inland from the coast. In addition, small scale vortices are modelled on the main change: these lead to hazardous local spikes in the modelled forest fire danger index. Exceptionally strong north/south temperature gradients were observed over inland New South Wales on 13 January and these are also seen in the simulations.Â 13 January brought difficult conditions for firefighting. When the fire was declared out on 24 January, it had burnt an area of 55,210 ha west of Coonabarabran, 53 homes, 131 other buildings and 95% of the Warrumbungle National Park.Â

Firstly, we present high resolution, three-dimensional numerical simulations of bushfire plumes using the UK Met Office Large Eddy Model (LEM). Plumes are simulated under a range of background wind conditions and the intensity, size, morphology and temporal stability of the resulting plumes are examined. Secondly, we use a Lagrangian particle transport model to calculate the trajectories of particles released near the base of each plume. Particles are assigned fall velocities representative of common firebrands and then advected by the three-dimensional velocity fields from the LEM simulations. By calculating the trajectories of tens of thousands of potential firebrands for each plume, distributions of flight time and landing position are constructed. We find that: (i) interaction between the plume updraft and background wind determines the distance travelled by firebrands, and (ii) the morphology of the plume determines the lateral and longitudinal spread of landing positions. These variations need to be properly accounted for in predictive models of fire spread and systematic studies such as these form the building blocks of better empirical spotting models.

The simulation has been performed using the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS), and involves a sequence of nested limited area model runs embedded in the ACCESS global model run, with a finest grid spacing of 550 metres. Our analysis will focus on how well the simulations capture the meteorological factors that promote extreme fire behaviour. The ACCESS model is used at the Bureau of Meteorology for operational numerical weather prediction, but is used here in research mode at resolutions much finer than current operational ones.

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Oral Abstracts continued Research Forum 15

Measuring emergency management performance under adversity: The good the bad the ugly

Discovering future disaster management capability needs using scenario planning

Christine Owen and Ben Brooks University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Chris Bearman Appleton Institute, Central Queensland University, Adelaide, SA, Australia Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Senior emergency management personnel face more extreme events and more complex challenges than their predecessors, and these challenges will increase in the future. One of the key challenges that senior emergency managers face is the evaluation of operational performance in the context of increasing scrutiny from media, legal and political spheres. To investigate this issue we collected survey data from 33 senior emergency management leaders who operate at the strategic level (above the local incident management team) as part of a broader survey examining the challenges of strategic emergency management (funded by the Bushfire CRC, Owen et al., 2013). Participants reported concerns that operational performance is currently judged by external sources (such as the media) in an often posthoc and arbitrary manner and is dependent on whether or not what happened in the end was perceived as a good outcome. Reliance on the outcome of a complex event is problematic because there is not an absolute correlation between the process of managing an emergency and the outcome. Bad outcomes can occur despite good operational processes and good outcomes can occur despite bad operational processes. For example, all the best processes might have been in place and performed well but the outcome was bad because of unexpected climactic conditions, such as a wind change. This paper outlines the views of senior leaders in emergency management regarding what needs to be taken into account when measuring operational performance and shares critical insights into the indicators of effective performance from the perspective of different stakeholders.

Paul Barnes Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC In recent years disaster risk reduction efforts have focused on disturbances linked to climate variability, seismic hazards, geo-political instability as well as public and animal health crises. Such disturbances combined with uncertainty derived from interdependencies between systems of critical infrastructure across urban and rural interfaces have combined to create significant problems for sustaining essential services and community safety for the private and public sector alike. The potential for a rapid spread of impacts, geographically and virtually, can also render a comprehensive understanding of disaster response and recovery needs and risk mitigation options difficult to grasp. Because of such dispersed and cascading impacts, communities and governments are likely to face series of systemic effects: often appearing concurrently. Such impacts have been categorised as often being ‘outside of the box,’ ‘too fast,’ and ‘too strange.’ Unexpected vulnerabilities and complexities in essential systems can make disaster effects difficult to anticipate and recovery efforts difficult to plan for. While the nature of disasters and their impacts might be called familiar or even regular in some situations can we safely assume that response and recovery capabilities that are available now will suit future disaster contexts? This paper presents initial scoping and detail of research funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, that seeks to define future capability needs of disaster management organisations. It explores challenges to anticipating the needs of representative agencies and groups active in before, during and after phases of complex emergency and disaster situations using capability deficit assessments and scenario planning.

17 Fire and spice and all things… not so nice: What does the largest ever international study really tell us about children who deliberately light fires? Ian Lambie Psychology Department, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand Peter Wilding New Zealand Fire Service, Wellington, New Zealand Deliberate firesetting is a significant social problem that causes millions of dollars of property damage each year. Of particular concern is that a high proportion of these arson offences are committed by children and adolescents. Adolescent firesetters are a unique and diverse group, variant in their motivations, needs and behaviour and distinct from their adult counterparts. The study of firesetting has been approached in a number of ways and thus the existing body of research lacks a coherent, consistent and comprehensive set of empirical findings. This presentation describes the largest study ever undertaken on children who deliberately light fires. With a sample of nearly 1,800 children, it considers the potential relationships between firesetting typologies, risk factors, developmental trajectories and treatment. It considers the extent to which firesetting can be considered within the framework of antisocial behaviour, possible predictors of future criminal behaviour and what implications such a relationship may have for clinical practice for both fire services internationally as well as mental health services.

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Building best-practice in child-centred disaster risk reduction

Integrated disaster decision support system incorporating mitigation portfolio optimisation

Kevin Ronan Central Queensland University, Rockhampton, QLD, Australia

Jeffrey P Newman, Holger R Maier, Aaron C Zecchin and Graeme C Dandy School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Briony Towers, John Handmer, Katherine Haynes, Eva Alisic, Nick Ireland, Susan Davie, Marla Petal, David Johnston, Vicki Johnson Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC The recently published synthesis report on the Post-2015 Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR, 2013) places children at the centre of successful adaptation to disasters: “In particular children and youth have been singled out as having specific needs in terms of school safety, child-centred risk assessments and risk communication. But, more importantly, if appropriately educated and motivated on disaster risk reduction, they will lead and become the drivers of change.” Equally, here, the role of children’s disaster education in managing disaster risk has been recognised as a major priority in the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (Australian Government, 2011). While Child-Centred Disaster Risk Reduction (CC-DRR) is increasingly popular across agencies and organisations around the world, rigorous empirical research on the efficacy of the approach is scarce. This three-year program of research is planning a range of projects, unified through various means to increase the reach and impact of CC-DRR education within communities in Australia and New Zealand. In addition, year one (of three) of this project is focused on planning and pilot work, including large scale practice, research and policy analysis, scoping and review. Initial efforts have included a recent submission to the UNISDR Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015 (GAR 15), with the focus on CCDRR. Another output has been a refereed publication focused on systemic approaches to inculcating CC-DRR platforms within schools and communities. These early outputs, along with other collaborative efforts within the team, are directed towards investigating the extent to which CC-DRR influences disaster resilience at individual, household and community levels. It will also investigate how CC-DRR influences children’s (1) prehazard resilience and readiness and (2) post-disaster response and recovery. In doing so, it will provide disaster resilience researchers, policy-makers, and practitioners with an evidencebase for development of effective CC-DRR programming, in Australia and internationally. This presentation will provide an update on progress of our systematic review and scoping efforts in year one and pilot data collected to date. A main thrust will be to update conference attendees on current best practice guidelines alongside a focus on major gaps in research, practice and policy.

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Hedwig van Delden Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, Maastricht, The Netherlands Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Edward Pikusa South Australian Fire and Emergency Services Commission, Adelaide, SA, Australia Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Social and economic losses from natural disasters are potentially staggering. To reduce losses, the immediate and post-crisis response to disasters is important. However, mitigation activities before a natural disaster occurs can be even more effective in reducing losses. Nevertheless, developing and implementing long term mitigation schemes can be difficult, because: decision makers tend to invest in works with clearer short-term benefits; risk attributed to disasters is prone to inaccuracy as disasters are relatively infrequent; the people influencing mitigation activities may have little personal experience to guide their evaluation; and mitigation budgets are always limited, therefore selecting the optimal trade-off of mitigation options can be very difficult. Because of these difficulties, decision support systems (DSS) are advantageous, as they: (1) are transparent and can quantify the expected benefits of mitigation investiture across multiple criteria; (2) assess the likelihood and consequences of natural disasters across multiple criteria; and (3) use formal optimisation techniques to find optimal or near-optimal mitigation portfolios. However, DSSs for natural disaster mitigation have tended to focus on disaster preparedness and the immediate and post-crisis response to emergencies. Of those DSSs that have focused on mitigation, none have considered both temporal nonstationarity in climate or land use, and the use of optimisation to form mitigation portfolios. Consequently, an integrated natural hazard mitigation DSS is being developed for the state of South Australia that optimises the choice of mitigation options, through assessing the performance of various policy options in the long term, by evaluating the performance of mitigation options using models across a number of natural hazards in an integrated way, whilst taking account of land use and climate change. This paper introduces the DSS, presents the questions the DSS will help answer, outlines the development approach, and summarises the optimisation and modelling strategies used.

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Oral Abstracts continued Research Forum 20

A pre-disaster multi-hazard damage and economic loss estimation model for Australia

Environmental thresholds for dynamic fire propagation

Abbas Rajabifard and Mohsen Kalantari The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia

Jason Sharples, Colin Simpson and Jason Evans UNSW Canberra, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

Recent work has demonstrated that under conditions of extreme fire weather, bushfires burning in rugged terrain can exhibit distinctly dynamic patterns of propagation, which can have a dramatic effect on subsequent fire development. Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling using large eddy simulation has been useful in shedding light on the physical mechanisms underlying these phenomena, for example highlighting the important role of fire-induced vorticity. In this paper we present new research that specifically investigates the environmental precursors necessary to drive dynamic fire propagation. This research extends our previous work using the WRF-Fire coupled fire-atmosphere model, to specifically consider the effect of wind speed and topographic aspect in generating the fire-induced vorticity necessary to drive dynamic fire propagation. Specifically, we examined the behaviour of simulated fires on leeward slopes under different wind speed and wind direction regimes.

Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Prasad Bhattacharya School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Katie Potts The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia Muhammad Habibur Rahman School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia Throughout history, the impact of numerous natural disasters on the Australian economic structure has been witnessed. Examples include: cyclones Mahina (1899) and Tracy (1974); floods in New South Wales (1955) and south east Queensland (1974; 2011; 2012); earthquake in Newcastle (1989); landslide in Thredbo (1997); and bushfires in Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and Australia Capital Territory (Black Saturday 2009; Canberra Fires 2003; Ash Wednesday 1983; Black Tuesday 1967; and Black Friday 1939). Among all of these natural disasters, bushfires are more intrinsic to Australia reshaping its ecosystems, landscapes and biological diversity. The resulting economic impact of these natural disasters is estimated to cost an average of AU$1.14 billion annually (Bureau of Transport Economics, 2001). This alarming statistic alone, along with the rapid economic growth in Australia, makes natural disasters a high priority issue for policy makers. In recent catastrophic natural disaster events, the emergency response of Australia has proven to be very effective at saving human lives, however the mitigation and preparedness phases of disaster risk reduction appear to be less successful in avoiding the adverse economic impacts of natural disasters. One of the significant problems observed in this connection is the lack of effort to estimate the full economic impact of natural hazards, taking into account all the affected sections of the economy. This effort should consider not only the primary effects of the natural disasters, but also its secondary effects due to losses propagated through the economy due to inter-sectoral linkages. In order to achieve a paradigm shift from reactive response to a proactive risk reduction culture, disaster risk reduction measures need to be integrated into the economic development process. With this in mind, this paper discusses the shortcomings of the current approach and proposes a methodology for increasing the disaster risk resilience of the Australian economy.Â

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The modelling results indicate the existence of environmental thresholds beyond which dynamic spread is likely to occur. The results also indicate that the transition from quasi-steady to dynamic fire propagation can be quite abrupt, requiring only minimal changes in wind speed and direction for onset. The propensity for dynamic interactions to produce erratic and dangerous fire behaviour has strong implications for firefighter and community safety. At the very least the research findings provide additional support for the use of well-briefed observers in firefighting operations in complex topography.

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Next generation models for predicting the behaviour of bushfires: challenges and prospects

Building community resilience through non-traditional emergency volunteering

Graham R Thorpe and Khalid Moinuddin Victoria University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Joshua Whittaker, Blythe McLennan and John Handmer RMIT University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Andrew Ooi and Daniel Chung Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC The application of physics-based models of the rate of spread of bushfires has been restricted, in part, by the availability of computing resources. New developments in computer hardware and software are lifting these restrictions. The computer games industry demands a very high rate of data processing by graphical processing units, and this paper discusses how this computer hardware can be exploited to develop massively parallel processing. Computer programming protocols are being developed to make use of the new hardware. When we observe the behaviour of bushfires we notice several features that are apparently random and do not repeat themselves. Flames, for example, are unsteady. The physical phenomena that engender this unsteadiness are captured by the equations that govern the behaviour of bushfires. This makes the solution of the equations both difficult and approximate. This paper will report on opportunities to make use of the most contemporary approaches that are available to solve the equations. The phenomena that govern the rate of spread of bushfires occur over a very wide range of length scales. The methods used to model bushfires account for scales that vary from those associated with the smallest eddies - a fraction of a millimetre, up to several kilometres that are associated with the terrain and atmosphere. This paper will discuss how this wide range of length scales can be accounted for without compromising accuracy or requiring excessively long computing times.

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Despite highly specialised and capable emergency management systems, members of the public are usually first on the scene in an emergency or disaster and remain long after official services have ceased. Citizens often play vital roles in helping those affected to respond and recover, and can provide invaluable assistance to official agencies. In Australia and New Zealand, however, emergency management has traditionally relied on a workforce of accredited volunteers who are affiliated with official emergency management agencies. Individuals and groups working outside of this system are often viewed as a nuisance or liability, and their efforts are largely undervalued. Given the decline of official volunteers within the emergency management workforce in recent years, it is likely that informal volunteers will provide much of the additional surge capacity required to respond to more frequent emergencies and disasters in the future. This paper examines the role of informal volunteers in emergency and disaster management in Australia and New Zealand. It explores the ways ordinary people volunteer their knowledge and resources to help others in times of crisis. Opportunities for and barriers to greater involvement of informal volunteers in emergencies and disasters are identified. We argue that more adaptive and inclusive models of emergency and disaster management are needed to harness the capacities and resilience that exist within and across communities.Â

The outcome of the research will be an increased capacity to accurately predict the behaviour of bushfires under a very wide range of conditions.

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Oral Abstracts continued Research Forum 24

Cultural collisions – the problems of sustaining a volunteer workforce in the NSW SES

Managing animals in disasters (MAiD): The experiences of emergency services personnel in supporting animals and their owners in disasters

Michael Jones University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Meet Norm and Norma. Norm and Norma are average Australian volunteers. This paper creates a composite personality for Norm and Norma and maps their values and expectations with regard to their volunteering propensities. This cultural-personality model is derived from three contemporary and well-received models of culture (Hofstede, GLOBE and the World Values Survey). This is supported by empirical research, based on focus groups from volunteers in the New South Wales State Emergency Service (SES). This model is then overlaid upon a similar cultural-personality model of the SES which maps its cultural proclivities, values and expectations. The resulting gap is discussed, cultural rifts are identified, and strategies for closing these gaps are discussed. This paper illustrates, an as yet unacknowledged observation, that today’s volunteer-base – the Norms and Normas of Australia – have a natural disinclination towards their donation of voluntary labour. In addition, from a supply and demand perspective, today’s volunteer landscape is becoming increasingly more complex. The supply of volunteers has become far more competitive as more and more agencies – even beyond the third sector – are vying for this scarce resource and providing increasing levels of tangible and intangible incentives in an effort to attract and secure volunteer labour. Demand is effected by the myriad time-seeking distractions in today’s fast-paced world. Today, there is no clear demarcation between work-time and free-time or social life and professional life this means that finding time to devote to benevolent activities is difficult, if indeed it is even desired. An informed understanding of these dilemmas will help emergency management agencies to adapt their practices in retaining their volunteer staff.

Melanie Taylor, Nicole Schembri and Penny Burns University of Western Sydney, Penrith, NSW, Australia Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Kirrilly Thompson and Bradley Smith Appleton Institute, Central Queensland University, Adelaide, SA, Australia Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Greg Eustace RSPCA Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC This research forms part of the initial activities being undertaken in the Managing animals in disasters: Improving preparedness, response, and resilience through individual and organisational collaboration project of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC. This project (MAiD), is identifying best practice approaches to the management of animals in disasters to help ensure optimal outcomes for public safety, and the longer-term mental and physical health of responders, owner groups (with pets/stock), and communities. The MAiD research project is in its initial exploratory and scoping phase in which data are being gathered via a number of small scale studies with different key groups. The emergency services personnel survey will be gathering information from a broad range of responders, both staff and volunteers, to gather information about their experiences with animals and their owners in disasters. It will seek to identify challenges and concerns, examples of effective practice, the expectations and needs of responders, and suggestions for how to improve response in this area. Data was collected from late May to mid-July. This presentation will include preliminary findings from the study and further information about the MAiD project and the other small scale studies. One of the overarching goals of the MAiD project is to improve the interface between responders and the community concerning the management of animals in disaster. This responder survey, along with mirror studies with animal owner groups, will help to direct future project activities and the development of evidenceinformed support tools to assist operational response and community engagement, and the production of professional development resources.

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Developing an index of resilience for Australian communities

Social media: Why we all must operate in this space and how to do it

Phil Morley, Melissa Parsons, Sonya Glavac, Graham Marshall, Judith McNeill, James McGregor, Ian Reeve, Richard Stayner and Martin Thoms University of New England, NSW, Australia

Melanie Irons University of Tasmania / Booty / Tassie Fires - We Can Help, Mt Nelson, TAS, Australia

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Peter Hastings Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Australia’s recently adopted National Strategy for Disaster Resilience recognises four characteristics of disaster resilient communities: 1) they function well while under stress 2) they adapt successfully 3) they are self-reliant and 4) they have strong social capacity. However important questions are raised. How would progress towards the development of these characteristics be assessed? How should investments to develop disaster resilience be prioritised, evaluated and reported? This project will develop an Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index as a tool for assessing, evaluating and reporting resilience to natural hazards under the NSDR. There is a burgeoning literature on using indices to assess community vulnerability or resilience. Our concern is that such indicators need to be tested. When examined against recent disasters in Australia, what would such indicators have predicted? We propose that by retrospectively recreating indicators before past events, discussion with local authorities, emergency service professionals etc. will identify the traits of the community and the features of its environment that affect resilience. From this proven and tested information we will develop an index that aligns with the four NSDR characteristics of natural disaster resilient communities. A new research project for 2014 that is funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, this presentation will discuss the progress made in the development of the index as well as its future direction.

This presentation reports on the findings of research completed in 2014 on the Tasmanian bushfires of 2013. This case study was first introduced at the 2013 conference, and this paper will present the much-anticipated research results. Much of what we know about the use of social media during disasters is simply anecdotal - this type of empirical research is absolutely vital. The author created a Facebook page, Tassie Fires - We Can Help, in response to seeing a large amount of disorganised offers of help and requests for help appearing on social media during the first 24 hours of the devastating bushfires. The page exploded and successfully managed a huge community response to the emergency - focusing on the safe management of volunteers, coordination of donations and supplies, sharing information, collaborating with the official responders, and supporting those in the bushfire affected areas. Recognising the outcomes and functions of this page were worthy of scientific study, three questionnaires were sent out to users of the page as part of a PhD project. A sample of almost 700 provided information around their usage of social media during the disaster. The Facebook page archives and insights were also analysed in order to establish how it was functioning for the first 35 weeks post-fires. This presentation will focus on a number of key learnings from this research: • How social media was being used – the good, the bad and the ugly • The key guidelines for how to successfully run a Facebook page: discussing issues around communication, accessibility and reach • Why all agencies should be in this space • How to get into this space: and how easy it is This presentation will be presenting research that was presented at the World Conference on Disaster Management in Toronto in June 2014.

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Oral Abstracts continued Research Forum 28

The NSW RFS Household Assessment Tool

ARPS simulation of pyro-convection under the influence of low-level jet wind profiles

Melissa O’Halloran NSW Rural Fire Service, Granville, NSW, Australia The NSW Rural Fire Service (NSW RFS) Bush Fire Household Assessment Tool provides advice to the community to assist with making an informed decision on whether it is safe to stay and defend their property. The new website is based on an extensive body of scientific knowledge and has been developed via a successful partnership between NSW Rural Fire Service and the Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires at the University of Wollongong. A Bayesian Network has been implemented as the modelling framework to underpin the tool. The first step of the model calculates the Radiant Heat Flux to determine if the location and the structure are adequate to protect people to safely shelter in place. A Bayesian Network is used to assess responses for critical elements of preparedness developed from published expert knowledge. The model also assists NSW RFS staff in assessing development applications and adequacy of existing controls for community protection plans. The complexity of the model is not visible to people using the website. A member of the public will access the website and enter their property address triggering a series of spatial queries to determine the direction of greatest bushfire risk and the characteristics of the risk posed. A series of questions relating to the construction of their house, their personal capacity to defend, the available equipment and the conditions of the grounds of the property are then used to determine their capacity to defend their property. The automated calculations and interactive graphics provide visual assistance with answering critical but often poorly understood questions. This presentation will provide an overview of how the Bayesian Network informed the model and how this was then converted into a tool that could be readily used by the community.

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Colin Simpson and Marwan Katurji Blow-up fire behaviour is characterised by a sudden and considerable increase in either the wildland fire intensity or spread rate, and is often accompanied by extreme pyroconvection. Blow-up fires are currently difficult to predict, due in part to a poor understanding of environmental factors that contribute to blow-up fire behaviour, and therefore pose a serious risk to firefighters and civilians. Low-level jets (LLJs) are a common feature of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) during blow-up fires1. Recent work utilised the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) numerical weather prediction model, which included an imposed steady-state heat flux emulating a wildland fire2, to numerically investigate the feedback of LLJs on the pyro-convective plume and downwind ABL properties. That numerical investigation established that the pyro-convective plume and downwind ABL properties are highly sensitive to variations in the LLJ properties, including the jet height, intensity and vertical wind shear above the jet. This study expands on that recent work through improved spatial and temporal resolution, and a more realistic geometrical representation of a wildland fire, within ARPS. The analysis presented examines the sensitivity of the near-fire convergence, and the downwind turbulent kinetic energy and vorticity, to LLJ properties. The results indicate that there are several physical mechanisms by which LLJs may commonly be associated with blow-up fire behaviour, including spotting and downwind pre-heating of vegetation.

Byram, G.M. (1954). Atmospheric conditions related to blowup fires. Station Paper 35. US Department of Agriculture, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, Ashville, NC.

Simpson, C., Katurji, M., Kiefer, M.T., Zhong, S., Charney, J.J., Heilman, W.E. and Bian, X. (2013). Atmosphere-fire simulation of effects of low-level jets on pyro-convective plume dynamics. In Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R.S. and Boland J. (eds) MODSIM2013, 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2013, pp. 270 − 276. ISBN: 978–0–9872143–3–1. http://www.mssanz.org.au/ modsim2013/A3/simpson.pdf

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The effect of the degree of grass curing on the behaviour of grassland fires – an experimental study

Understanding behavioural responses to earthquake shaking using injury data from the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes

David Nichols, Rachel Bessell, Susan Kidnie and Alen Slijepcevic Fire and Emergency Management, CFA, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

David Johnston GNS Science/Massey University, Lower Hutt, New Zealand

Miguel Cruz and James (Jim) S Gould CSIRO, Acton, ACT, Australia Key to understanding fire propagation in grassland fuels is to know their annual growing cycle and the availability of biomass to be consumed by a fire. Curing is the progressive senescence and drying out of grass after flowering (annuals) or in response to drought (perennials) and is the key process transferring biomass from the live to the dead fuel component. Despite the relevance of fires in grasslands and savannah ecosystems in Australia and throughout the world, our understanding of (1) grass senescence effect on overall fuel moisture content and fuel availability, and (2) the degree of grass curing in fire behaviour, is still lacking. To investigate the effect of the curing process on grassland fire behaviour an experimental field study was conducted at two distinct locations in Victoria, Australia. Experimental burn plots size were 32 x 32 metres. Simultaneous burns were conducted with one plot being fully cured (100%; control) and another being partially cured (treatment). Detailed measurements of fuel bed structure, weather variables (3D wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity and solar radiation) and fire behaviour (rate of spread, flame length, residence time and time-temperature profiles) were recorded on 52 experimental fires. The range of curing in the partially cured plots varied between approximately 35% and 90%. The range of other fire environment parameters were: 2-m wind speed: 5.4 - 20.5 km/h; ambient air temperature: 16-33 C; relative humidity: 14-40 %; Fire spread rates varied between 3.6 and 72 m/min. Preliminary analysis highlights include the observation of sustained fire spread with curing levels between 30-40% and the importance of the dead fuel component from the previous year growth to sustain propagation at these marginal conditions. The data collected is being used to reanalyse functional relationships currently used to express the effect of curing and live fuel moisture on the spread of grassland fires

Sarah Standring and Emma Aldridge University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand Kevin Ronan Central Queensland University, Rockhampton, Qld Michael Lindell Texas A&M University, Texas, United States Thomas Wilson University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand Jim Cousins GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand Michael Ardagh University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand Joanne Deely Canterbury District Health Board, Christchurch, New Zealand Steven Jensen California State University, Long Beach, United States Thomas Kirsch Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States Richard Bissel University of Maryland, College Park, United States To more effectively reduce the death toll and injuries from future earthquakes researchers need to identify the causes of injury. In this study we investigated causes of injury during the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Data on patients injured during the Darfield (4 September 2010) and Christchurch (22 February 2011) earthquakes were sourced from the New Zealand Accident Compensation Corporation. The total injury burden was analysed for demography, context of injury, causes of injury, and injury type. Injury context was classified as direct (immediate shaking causing injuries), action (movement of person causing injuries), and secondary (cause of injury after shaking ceased). Nine categories of injury cause were identified. Three times as many people were injured in the Christchurch earthquake as in the Darfield earthquake (7171 vs 2256). The primary shaking caused approximately two-thirds of the injuries from both quakes. Actions during the main shaking and aftershocks led to many injuries (51.3% Darfield and 19.4% Christchurch). “Primary direct” caused the highest proportion of injuries during the daytime Christchurch quake (43.6%). This study demonstrated that people’s location and their actions during and after earthquakes influenced their risk of injury. This research will help planners adopt land-use practices that guide growth away from hazardprone areas, and will help engineers design safer buildings. Researchers also need to better document the numbers and types of injuries. This will allow emergency managers to better train residents of earthquake risk areas to take appropriate protective actions and emergency medical personnel to improve their response plans and preparedness.

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Oral Abstracts

AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference 32

Defensive lines – Maximising limited overs

Optimising business survival in a post disaster environment: A story from business in post earthquake Christchurch

Therese Walsh New Zealand ICC Cricket World Cup 2015, Wellington, New Zealand Global sporting events require a significant amount of planning and readiness work, and even then require a large quantity of good luck to ensure a successful outcome. Therese will explore the careful planning required to ensure good luck and good management collide on an international stage including what happens when disaster strikes. The Rugby World Cup tested New Zealand’s infrastructure, spirit and capability as a small country hosting many other nations. The biggest event ever held in New Zealand, it attracted thousands of international fans, a substantial broadcast audience and demonstrated New Zealand’s capability in this area. While it proved to be a very successful event the impact of the Christchurch earthquakes was significant and tested the Tournament’s processes, flexibility and approach. Now New Zealand is on the eve of hosting the Cricket World Cup with Australia, another mega sporting event and, while some things stay the same, organisers face a raft of new and different challenges and opportunities. Hear about how teams, players, match officials, broadcasters, media, sponsors and fans all play their part in bringing to life world cup events and what New Zealand needs to do to maximise the benefits for the country.

Peter Townsend Canterbury Employers’ Chamber of Commerce, Christchurch, New Zealand The earthquakes in Christchurch in 2010 and 2011, attracted worldwide attention. The human tragedy and the magnitude of the damage caused have been widely communicated. What is not as well-known is the story of business resilience and survival in Christchurch since the earthquake. There were critical lessons learned by Christchurch businesses that have application to any business, anywhere, after any disaster. CEO of the Canterbury Employers’ Chamber of Commerce, Peter Townsend CNZM, will relate experiences from the coal face, which have resulted in an extraordinarily high rate of business survival by international standards. With 80% of the commercial buildings in the core of the city destroyed, 6,000 companies having to evacuate the central city without warning, and the central city being locked down for many months, business viability in Christchurch was severely threatened. Specific interventions along with initiatives and the sheer determination of individual businesses ensured ongoing business vitality.

35 33 Learning from adversity – Vitally important, difficult to attain Tom Harbour USDA Forest Service, Washington D.C., WASH, United States Adversity is all too common in the wildland fire profession. Death and destruction are too frequent and far too poignant outcomes of a millennial ecologic process. Deriving organisational learning from a wildfire disaster is a challenge but extraordinarily important. Establishing an organisational culture which values learning is difficult; and too often, a short-sighted “name, blame, and shame” perspective – popular for many reasons, overwhelms and complicates the difficult process of learning from adversity. Learning from adversity involves preparation, sharing, discovering, and introducing doctrine, then, sustaining new approaches. The global nature of our work brings new opportunities but also many challenges. Aligning interagency interests to sustain an organisational approach is complex. As we face a near-term future of more wildfire and more risk, the need to utilise our experience to chart a better path forward is significant.

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Adapting to the Big One – a word from experience John Hamilton Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management, Wellington, New Zealand John Hamilton, Director of Civil Defence Emergency Management, is one of the few who knows what it is like to be responsible for the control and co-ordination of a major natural disaster when, following a declaration of a state of national emergency, all the nation’s resources are available for deployment in the response. John held the appointment of National Controller during the response to the 2011 Christchurch earthquake. During his presentation he will share his experiences in Christchurch, from an organisational and personal perspective, as the response organisation adapted to the scale of the emergency and coordinated resources to deliver the best outcomes for the city, its people and New Zealand. John will use his experiences to also share with the audience the lessons he learned including adapting the organisation, structures and thinking to the situation encountered in “big one”.

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Melanesian Volcano Network

Samoa’s response to Tropical Cyclone Evan – Effectiveness of response coordination through partnerships and relationship building

Loti Yates Government of Solomon Islands, Honiara, HONIA, Solomon Islands The Melanesian Volcano Network (MVN) was established to reduce volcanic risk and impact in Melanesia. The MVN has developed a framework for the exchange and sharing of volcanological resources amongst Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, on a sub-regional basis. It aims to achieve this through: 1. Exchanging and sharing personnel, information, expertise, volcano-monitoring equipment, experiences and ideas, particularly at times of volcanic crisis. 2. Cooperation in the development of the vital groundwork needed to help at risk communities in the three countries become more aware of volcanic hazards and, in partnership with the communities, devise ways of coping with the threat. The concept is restricted at present to volcanic risk, and to only three countries, but the lessons learnt could be used for expansion to include other geohazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and landslides, and to include other countries – or other regions – in the south west pacific. Since inception, Solomon Islands has made progress through the joint efforts of national observatories, donors such as NZAID, EU/DIPECHO and partners such as the national Red Cross Societies and SOPAC. Successes of the MVN so far for Solomon Islands include: • Deployment of the Vanuatu Volcano Observatory technicians to Solomon Islands to install a volcano seismograph station on Savo, followed by a maintenance visit in early 2012; • The participation of two Solomon Islands volcano monitoring technicians in the installation of a seismograph and remote camera at Yasur volcano on Tanna for near real time monitoring. • Information sharing through technical meetings e.g. Vanuatu in 2012. Evaluation of MVN exchange programs, challenges and forward planning. • Solomon Island Government supported volcanologists from Vanuatu Geo-hazards unit to conduct a seismic needs assessment in Solomon Islands in 2013. The meeting shared experiences and challenges in the establishment of the Vanuatu and Solomon Islands volcanological observatories, as well as the progress made in collaborating with NDMOs and community based organisations such as national Red Cross Societies. Participants also noted the challenges of ongoing maintenance beyond the lifetime of projects and shared the successes of how collaboration and information sharing has strengthened early warning systems. The MVN requires sustained investment, as well as collaborations with national governments, regional and international communities, professional societies, private sector and research institutes to successfully transfer disaster reduction science and technology into common use.

Anthony Blake Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Suva, CE, Fiji Molly Nielsen Disaster Management Office, Ministry of Natural Resources & Environment; Govt of Samoa, Apia, SAMOA Tropical Cyclone Evan is considered the worst cyclone to affect Samoa since Cyclone Val in 1991. From 13 December 2012, TC Evan caused widespread damage across the country, in particular the Island of Upolu while Savaii remained unscathed. Torrential rainfall in the early hours caused flash flooding in the Vaisigano River which contributed to the devastation caused. TC Evan destroyed power plants and reservoirs cutting power and water supply. It also disrupted communication and uprooted trees, many of which contributed to the log dams and added to the already swollen rivers, destroyed buildings and roads, extensively damaged crops. Four people have been officially confirmed to have died due to the impacts of TC Evan, in addition 10 people are still missing to date. The total number of persons displaced was approximately 4,800. As a result of the devastation caused by TC Evan, the total cost of effects is estimated at SAT$465 million (equivalent to US$203.9 million). Samoa’s response to Cyclone Evan improved tremendously compared to the tsunami of 2009. The lessons learned from the earlier tsunami, as well as new programs implemented after the tsunami, strengthened the response capacity and coordination of agencies in response to TC Evan. Building relationships, raising awareness and contingency planning, reducing disaster risks through environmental and social safeguards and other preventative measures have helped shape a more efficient and cost effective response to TC Evan.

38 UK Fire and Rescue Service: Latest Challenges Paul Fuller Bedfordshire Fire and Rescue Service, Tamworth, United Kingdom Chief Fire Officers Association President Paul Fuller will explain how UK Fire and Rescue Services and our partners are tackling deep cuts to funding while managing increasing government and public expectations. This is set against a backdrop of ongoing strike action and the most prolonged period of extreme weather and flooding in recent memory during winter 2013-14.

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Oral Abstracts continued

AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference 39

Fire Danger Rating panel

Case Study: Sydney Olympic Park Aquatic Centre Car Park Multiple Vehicle Fire – 13 October, 2013

An enhanced national Fire Danger Rating System for Australia – Where to from here? Chair: Joe Buffone PSM Deputy Chief Officer, CFA and Chair, National Fire Danger Ratings System Working Group Across Australia, emergency services utilise a Fire Danger Rating System which has been in place, largely unchanged, since the 1960s. The Fire Danger Rating System is an essential tool which guides day-to-day response to fire, the issuance of community safety warnings, and critical public safety policies and strategies. The current Fire Danger Rating System considers only a limited number of factors to determine the Fire Danger Index (FDI), a core element of the current ‘System’. It does not, for example, consider new and improved weather inputs developed by the Bureau of Meteorology since the 1960s. Nor does it consider the potential impact of a fire – that is, the risk to human life, property, the economy or broader environment. The Australia and New Zealand Emergency Management Council (ANZEMC) has endorsed the development of an enhanced National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) as a national priority. A new and contemporary Fire Danger Rating System will necessarily be more complex: it will draw upon a much broader range of data, produce a suite of fire danger indicators, and support practitioners in both strategic and immediate response scenarios to make more accurate, informed public safety decisions. The new System will be spatially and temporally aware, better enabling emergency services to understand and act upon fire risk at a local, rather than regional, level, vastly improving the accuracy and effectiveness of services. This panel session will discuss recent and planned activity being undertaken to develop a new Fire Danger Ratings System for Australia.

Rob Jansen Fire & Rescue NSW, Edensor Park, NSW, Australia On a day of high fire activity and adverse fire weather conditions in and around the Sydney metropolitan area, an initial grass fire in a public open-air car park at Homebush, in the centre of the metropolitan area, resulted in the damage or destruction of over 90 vehicles. Contributing factors to the rapid development of this fire included high temperature, strong hot westerly winds, a full car park due to high aquatic centre patronage, and small or no separation between parked cars, grass plants and large quantities of garden mulch. Foam as an extinguishing medium was not used, in consideration of environmental damage to surrounding wetlands in the Homebush Olympic Precinct. While weather and fire conditions on this day were highly unusual, the loss of so many vehicles in such a short period of time has provided many lessons for fire services, as well as providing lessons to stakeholders, such as town planners and landscape designers. This paper draws on the case study to argue for increased separation of vehicles from garden mulch, reduced depth of garden mulch to reduce fuel load, and improved ringmain installations around large open air car parks. This paper will discuss what worked well during the investigation/ research phase, why it worked well and what this means for the future role of emergency services in utilising fire research to argue for policy change.

41 2007 Hobart Myer Fire – The sequel Gavin Freeman Tasmania Fire Service, Hobart, TAS, Australia A fire in central Hobart’s Murray Street department store, Myer, occurred on 22 September 2007, the day after the 2007 AFAC conference. The Myer building was built in 1908 and consisted of four levels, including one below ground, and contained a variety of merchandise ranging from cosmetics and records through to clothing and homewares. What started as a call on the Direct Brigade Alarm (DBA) culminated in one of the largest fires of its type in Tasmania’s history, with the damage estimate of $AUS 200 million. The fire spread rapidly during the course of the firefighting operations and ultimately destroyed the building. At the 2008 AFAC conference, held in Adelaide, the presenter talked about the ensuing recovery in the week following the fire and outlined the many valuable lessons learned. The tremendous feats of human endeavour undertaken were also highlighted. Subsequent to this fire, there was extensive operational analysis, a coronial inquiry and an ensuing Supreme Court hearing. The result of these had a tremendous impact on the Tasmania Fire Service and the people directly affected. This presentation will: • Recap the Hobart Fire Brigade’s capabilities and response to the incident • Provide a frank and in depth analysis of the lessons learned • Examine the impact on an organisation of the forensic analysis that is typical of a coronial inquiry and identify what we can learn from a process such as this.

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Quakers Hill Nursing Home fire: After the disaster – what worked and why

The City of Chicago’s keys to preparation and recovery

Chris Lewis Fire & Rescue NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia

José Santiago Chicago Fire Department, Chicago, ILLIN, United States

On 18 November 2011 at 4.50 am, Fire & Rescue NSW (FRNSW) responded to an automatic fire alarm at Quakers Hill Nursing Home. The events of that day led to the full evacuation of nearly 90 high-level care elderly patients and the largest loss of life by fire in NSW in over 30 years. While there is no doubt that rapid response and highly professional firefighting saved many lives, this catastrophic fire led to the obvious and inevitable question on how such a large loss of life could have been prevented or mitigated, and particularly, how such a large loss of life among the most vulnerable in our community could be prevented in the future.

Commissioner José Santiago will detail how Chicago uses a unique system for preparing for and reacting to man-made and natural disasters. Chicago has the potential for a wide variety of disasters, from tornadoes to blizzards and emergencies on Lake Michigan, as well as a host of man-made potential disasters due to its position as a major transportation hub for rail, air and shipping. Chicago is not only a high value terror target, it also serves as the home of a sitting U.S. President, with related security concerns and precautions. Chicago bases its response on the U.S National Disaster Recovery framework, but with a few added twists. The presentation will show how spending correctly on the “before” side, can have a much more predictable and positive outcome on the “after” side.

This paper gives an overview of the events of that day and discusses, from a fire service perspective, the post-fire joint investigation involving the NSW Police Arson Team, Police Forensic Team and FRNSW Fire Investigation and Research Unit (FIRU). The joint investigation led to FIRU undertaking a post-fire research process that included the reconstruction of nursing home rooms designed to be duplicates of those initially involved in the fire, and the burning of those rooms under close scientific scrutiny. In turn, that post-fire research work, along with a thorough and comprehensive joint investigation, provided irrefutable evidence to firstly confirm what happened that day and, importantly, to bring about consensus on the need for legislative change that led to the retrospective fitting of fire sprinklers in all existing residential aged care facilities in NSW.

We as fire responders tend to think of our commitment to a scene in hours, not days or weeks. We also tend to suffer from the pitfalls of large egos and jurisdictional protection. The presentation will show how such issues can cost not only recovery time but in the worst case, lives. In times of large scale disaster operations, one of the biggest problems is young decision makers with too little historical knowledge, and a lack of resources, both human and archival, that relate to previous efforts in similar situations. The presentation will show how planning and precision beat speed and brute force every time when it comes to response, mitigation and recovery.

This paper will discuss what worked well during that investigation /research phase, why it worked so well and what this means for the future role of emergency services in utilising fire research to argue for policy change.

43 Panel Interview – Industry leaders Chair: Stuart Ellis CEO, AFAC How well do you know some of our Industry Leaders? For the first time during an AFAC conference CEO Stuart Ellis will interview four AFAC agency leaders. We hear them speak formally at conferences and agency events; we see and hear them in the media; now come and share a relaxed conversation with some of those who are helping to shape the future of the sector. Here is the chance to sit up close and personal with four industry leaders including National Commander Paul Baxter, New Zealand Fire Service; Commissioner Wayne Gregson, Department of Fire and Emergency Services, Western Australia; Stephen Griffin, Chief Executive Officer, Victoria State Emergency Service and David Nugent, Acting General Manager, Environment and Heritage, Parks Victoria. Learn a little more about who they are as individuals, where they have come from, what motivates them, how they have come to be in their current roles and their perceptions of the major challenges facing the industry. These are some of our industry leaders that are required to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Premiers and Prime Ministers and account for what did and did not happen during major events. Panel members are all also AFAC Council members.

This session will include opportunities to answer questions from the floor.

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AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference 45

Mitigating wildfire risk: A new fire weather system for New Zealand

Enhanced Bushfire Management Program, Southern Ranges Region: A success story – Three years on

Michael J Uddstrom, Trevor Carey-Smith, Stuart Moore, Bernard Miville, Errol Lewthwaite and John Sansom NIWA, National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand Grant Pearce New Zealand Forest Research Institute Ltd. (Scion), Christchurch Simon Bishop Viewnamics Ltd, Wellington, New Zealand Gary Lockyer National Rural Fire Authority, Wellington, New Zealand In New Zealand, wildfire is a hazard where the focus has successfully been shifted from response to readiness, and to risk mitigation through reduction. This shift has been enabled through the development and implementation of a new fire weather system (FWSYS) that provides practitioners and emergency managers with a tool that both alerts them to potentially dangerous conditions, and provides access to all the information needed to both understand current fire risk in the rural landscape, and, for the first time, how that risk is expected to change over the coming days. The new FWSYS is a joint development between NIWA and Scion and incorporates results from the latest weather prediction and fire research that has been carried out for the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, the NZ Fire Service Commission and the National Rural Fire Authority. It is based on the concept that fire intensity, a function of fuel type and environmental factors, indicates suppression difficulty as originally developed within the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction System. In this paper we will describe the components of the FWSYS, including meteorological data ingestion and quality control, how these data are used to generate national maps of fire risk indices for existent conditions, the weather prediction science underpinning the generation of fire risk indices out to six days ahead, and the delivery pathways employed to provide these data to end users (i.e. via SMS, GIS, website and PC application).

Ian Dicker NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, Sydney, NSW, Australia The Enhanced Bushfire Management Program (EBMP) was launched in the second half of 2011 by the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service (NPWS). EBMP is funded by the NSW Climate Change Fund and enhanced by NSW Treasury and supports the largest land management agency in the State to reduce the likelihood of landscape scale fires impacting on its tenure and neighbours. EBMP is broken into two major themes, being increased fuel reduction works and rapid aerial response teams. This paper focuses specifically on the EBMP activities of the Southern Ranges Region (SRR) of the NPWS. This Region is quite significant in its landscape and fire history. Southern Ranges staff manage the iconic Kosciuszko National Park and more than 70 other smaller parks and reserves. Kosciuszko National Park is significant because it forms part of the Australian Alps and contains both the highest terrain on the Australian mainland as well as much of the alpine and sub-alpine flora and fauna of eastern Australia. The Australian Alps have been identified by the scientific community as one of the most vulnerable environmental communities due to climate change. One of the largest threats posed is the increased frequency and intensity of bushfire impact to the higher elevation areas, where fire is historically an infrequent visitor. Since engaging its team of 12 staff, comprising two five-member field crews, a supervisor and a technical specialist, the SRR EBMP crew have become one of the success stories of program. The paper will discuss the successful outcomes of the field program, including the establishment and maintenance program of asset protection zones around heritage and environmental assets and the substantial increase in targeted fuel reduction burning. Given the frequency of lightning caused fires within the Australian Alps and surrounding remote forested areas, the SRR has become one of the major participating regions of the Rapid Aerial Response Team (RART) program. This cooperative program with the NSW Rural Fire Service provides funding for pre placement of well equipped helicopters staffed with local remote area fire crews. During the 2012/13 and 13/14 fire seasons, Southern Ranges have deployed RART aircraft on more than 10 occasions, with all fires being kept to less than five hectares. Lessons learned from this very successful program are discussed. The presentation comprises a combination of photos and video combined with a discussion of the program outcomes, highlights and lessons learned.

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Post-emergency rapid risk assessment

How safe is safe-enough?

Annelise Peyton and Wayne Buckman Department of Environment and Primary Industries, East Melbourne, VIC, Australia

John McAneney, Brian Ashe, Katharine Haynes and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira Risk Frontiers, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW, Australia

Margaret Kitchin Conservation Planning and Research, ACT Government, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Australia’s fire fatality rate of 0.6 per 100 000 of population, already low by international standards, has proved resistant to increasing expenditure on fire management and protection. The total spend on managing fire was estimated to be around 16 billion AUD in 2010 or 1.3% of GDP, giving rise to a total cost of 18 billion including losses. This funding has presumably arisen from adhoc investments by Government, over a long period of time, often following large event losses. Ashe et al. (2008) questioned whether the allocation of resources to manage this peril was ‘efficient’, but ‘how safe is safe enough?’ is not a question that can be answered without considering the cost of providing this safety.

Simon Hemer National Parks and Wildlife Services, Coffs Harbour, NSW, Australia South-east Australian public land managers are taking a new approach to post-fire risk assessment to address risks immediately following an emergency event. The approach was developed from the United States Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams that were deployed to the Victorian bushfires in 2009 and introduced the concept of post-emergency rapid risk assessment. In Victoria it is a legislated requirement for emergency and public land managers to undertake recovery. The introduction of the Bushfire Rapid Risk Assessment Teams (RRATs) in 2010 greatly improved the transition from response to recovery. Building on the Victorian approach, in 2011 NSW and ACT developed the Burned Area Assessment Team (BAATs). These Victorian and NSW/ACT teams, draw together expertise in a range of scientific disciplines and conduct a rapid risk assessment immediately following an emergency event. These assessments are used to assist managers in identifying and minimising future impacts – both immediate and longer term – caused by the emergency event. The goal is to reduce further threat to life, property, infrastructure and the environment. The rapid risk assessment process identifies risks, mitigation options, associated costs and a prioritised works programs for the public land manager to assist in developing a recovery plan. These outputs of the process, which include a written report, support the transition from emergency response to recovery.

A risk-risk analysis of the regulatory cost of government spending estimated the Australian willingness-to-spend for preventing a loss of a life to be between 20 million and 50 million AUD. Thus the current allocation corresponds to between 800 and 320 ‘statistical’ deaths. The analysis shows the importance of carefully ensuring that the costs of regulation are at least grosso modo in line with the purported benefits. But questions remain: are the fire services over- or under-funded? If there are to be cuts were should they occur? Whose voices are more important, the general public whose perception of risk is conditioned by the media and recent experience, homeowners most likely to be most impacted, or so-called experts who may have their own biases? And who will end up baring the cost for the loss of homes constructed within fire-prone bushland? These decisions are intrinsically political, in the sense of being complicated and difficult, but worthy of analysis. Similar questions are being asked of all areas of government expenditure and it would be surprising if emergency services are exempt.

One of the strengths of this risk process is the collaboration with key stakeholders both within and external to Government. Through early engagement with stakeholders the teams can ensure the most significant risks – for the community and to the land manager - are captured. The Victorian Bushfire RRATs and NSW/ACT BAATs have an agreed inter-agency approach to post-emergency rapid risk assessment, which is maintained through shared training, process and methodology. Support from emergency response agencies waiver based on the emergency manager’s exposure and priority to transition to recovery. This model may provide the basis for a national approach in the future.

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Oral Abstracts continued

AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference 49

The keys to providing assurance: Sharing responsibility and accepting accountability

ARM360 Initial Impact Assessment

Iain S Mackenzie Office of Inspector-General Emergency Management, Brisbane, QLD, Australia The 2013 Queensland Police and Community Safety Review prompted significant reform in relation to disaster management. A significant observation was that “the current cooperative arrangements… are not sustainable as the sole means of ensuring continuous improvement and offering the government assurance of the systems capability to protect Queenslanders.” The Review recommended the creation of an Inspector General Emergency Management (IGEM), charged with the responsibility of providing the Premier, Government and people of Queensland an assurance of public safety”. This is to be achieved, in part, by establishing and implementing a performance standards and assurance framework. The framework will direct, guide and focus work of all agencies across all tiers of Government on the desired outcomes of the Queensland disaster management arrangements. Defining and designing this assurance framework has been a major focus of the office of IGEM since being established. The framework must drive continuous improvement, it will consist of a range of assurance and assessment methodologies that help agencies deliver high level disaster and emergency management outcomes. It will not create red tape. The test will be that the value created by implementing and assessing standards should outweigh any implementation costs. Standards within the framework will be specific, and outcome focussed. They will meet the expectations of communities, agencies and the Queensland Government and be applicable across all agencies and levels of Government. Assessment activities will include self-assessment tools, reviews, training and exercises, and post-event analysis, they should recognise the validity of differing levels of capability and maturity for disaster management, rather than a simple pass/fail approach. The challenge is to ensure the framework can deliver the assurance sought by government. This paper examines how this will be achieved through collaboration with our partners, who must share in this collective responsibility and accept individual accountability.

50 Learning from adversity: What has 75 years of bushfire inquiries (1939-2013) taught us? Michael Eburn Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC is supporting research at the Australian National University to identify alternative ways to learn from catastrophic events. Over 75 years (starting with the 1939 Street Royal Commission into the Victorian bushfires and ending with the 2013 Hyde inquiry into the Tasmanian fires) no less than 29 Royal Commissions, coronial inquests and special inquiries have investigated Australian bushfires and produced in excess of 1640 recommendations for reform. That’s an average of one inquiry every two and a half years, each inquiry producing 57 recommendations or 22 recommendations per year. Rather than looking at the cause of, and response to particular events, this paper will review the inquiries themselves to identify common themes and ask: What have we learned and what are we yet to learn? More importantly what can we learn about the inquiry process and are ad hoc inquiries into single, even catastrophic events, the best way to identify the necessary learning for long term community resilience?

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Colin Sampson Metropolitan Fire & Emergency Services Board, East Melbourne, VIC, Australia Major events in recent years have demonstrated the need to collect, map, view and store accurate data as quickly as possible (presently undertaken via a paper based system). Metropolitan Fire & Emergency Services Board (MFB) crews who attended the Queensland Floods in 2010 witnessed the introduction of electronically collected data utilising Trimble Collection Devices. Although an improvement on paper based data collection, there was still a need for devices to be collected and data downloaded at the Queensland Command Centre. Our research led us to Geocove USA who have developed a software solution for mapping and data collection of the impact of natural and man-made disasters, events which can be downloaded and viewed “in real time”. We have adapted and localised the software to reflect Australian requirements and utilise ruggedised tablets to collect the data. Operators map, record GPS co-ordinates, photograph and assess disaster events and automatically synchronise data which is sent to a MFB secure web viewer. ARM360 uses an ArcGIS server as its central mapping platform allowing all data collected by MFB to be shared with other Emergency Service Organisations (ESO), in line with interoperability guidelines. The ability to view data in “real time” at Control Centres greatly assists decision making by Incident Controllers and recovery agencies. The program also allows for the “potentiality” of the size of the impact on a community before a full assessment has been undertaken. The presentation will demonstrate ARM360’s comprehensive and flexible fields and the major benefits of ‘real time data’ in a single pass collection. Including Initial Impact Assessments (drive-by assessments ) to detailed Structural Damage and Human Services reports. The presentation will address two events that the MFB have attended in recent times, Bundalong VIC and Ouyen VIC. We will explain and demonstrate our data collection methods, web viewer and reporting systems with “real time demonstrations”.

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The use of a Dynamic Cover Tool by Fire & Rescue NSW

Bushfire shelter options – Building resilience through policy and practice

Mark Brown Fire & Rescue NSW, Sydney South, NSW, Australia

John Schauble Emergency Management Victoria , Melbourne, VIC

Graham Holland ORH Ltd, Reading, United Kingdom

John Mealia Country Fire Authority, Melbourne, VIC

Delivering fire and emergency services in today’s complex operating environment presents significant challenges for agency leaders. Urban fire services no longer just respond to structure fires, and their resources must subsequently be managed as efficiently as possible to ensure that response times are minimised for the range of incidents that constitute their day-today business, i.e. firefighting, HazMat and rescue operations. When major emergencies occur, one of the most important tasks for a modern communications centre is to move-up or replace resources in order to ensure that the level of coverage (in terms of fire protection and other risks) is maintained across their jurisdiction with the available remaining resources.

Since 2009, Victoria has adopted a systems approach to the provision of bushfire shelter options. This has involved a significant shift in public policy, along with the development of detailed technical and social responses to the issue of sheltering in a bushfire flame zone.

Fire & Rescue NSW recently installed ORH’s Dynamic Cover Tool (the DCT) within both of its communications centres. This decision-support tool is linked to the service’s computer aided dispatch system, to provide officers a visual display of overall resource utilisation and underlying level of cover, as well as informing them of the most efficient move-ups based on risk profile. The DCT proved to be very beneficial during the major bushfire emergency that occurred across NSW in October 2013. This included the devastating fires that impacted the Blue Mountains where, on one day alone, 90 fire appliances were deployed from the greater Sydney area in Strike Teams to respond to major bushfires. During the bushfire emergency, Fire & Rescue NSW also responded to a 5th Alarm residential structure fire, a significant car park fire at Sydney Olympic Park in which 47 vehicles were destroyed, and a major petrol tanker fire. This paper will discuss how the DCT was used by Fire & Rescue NSW to provide a high level of confidence when undertaking operational decisions regarding resource deployment during this major emergency.

Central to this approach has been building structural resilience through the development of shelter options for people who either choose to stay or are trapped in a location during the passage of a bushfire. This has involved revisiting options such as community fire refuges, the development of standards around the construction of private bushfire shelters (bunkers) and the new concept of Neighbourhood Safer Places. Victoria now has examples of both purpose-built and retrofitted community fire refuges, capable of accommodating hundreds of people, built to Performance Standards that will inform a national approach. The provision of shelter options that may well encourage people to remain within the flame zone is arguably at odds with a broader policy position that encourages people to leave bushfire-prone areas early at times of high risk. Such “last resort” options rely on a detailed community understanding of how best to respond to the threat of fire. The public policy debate around bushfire shelter options is ongoing and has significant social, political and economic dimensions. Among the questions explored by this paper will be the duty of the State, if any, to provide contingent shelter options to its citizens and its capacity to provide sufficient refuge options in areas of high population density. The relative advantages and disadvantages of private versus public shelters will also be discussed.

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Oral Abstracts continued

AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference 54

CERM: A cognitive risk model and simulation to predict community behaviour to emergencies

Balancing fire risk and biodiversity in an urbanising landscape using a comparison of interstate programs. Where red meets green

Don Perugini and Drew Mellor ISD Analytics, Adelaide, SA, Australia Alan Rhodes Policy and Strategic Projects, Victorian Fire Services Commissioner, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Owen Gooding Country Fire Authority, Mt. Waverley, VIC, Australia Lana Andrews NSW Rural Fire Service, Granville, NSW

Terry Reilly Galbraith, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Waminda Parker Nature Conservation Council, Newtown, NSW

Following the 2009 bushfires that claimed 173 lives, the Victorian Royal Commission concluded that “a more comprehensive policy is required – one that better accommodates the diversity of bushfires and human responses”.

Mike Wouters Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources, Adelaide, SA

Many factors impact how communities respond to emergencies and warnings. These include individuals’ demographic profile, preparedness, preferences towards staying or leaving, exposure and receptivity to warnings and visual cues, access to a vehicle, severity and progression of the hazard, and practical factors such as power or water failure.

Craig Welden South East Queensland Fire & Biodiversity Consortium, Brisbane, QLD

We present a novel approach to predicting community response to an emergency using a simulation model called CERM (Community Emergency Response Model). CERM can predict how people will respond to different hazards, when they will leave, and where they will go. CERM can be used to assess measures such as warning schedules, adequacy of shelters, and traffic management. The cognitive risk model that drives CERM has three dimensions: threat, representing the perceived threat of the incident; uncertainty, representing the uncertainty of the threat impacting the individual; and vulnerability, representing the individuals’ perceived level of vulnerability to the threat (risk of life). Scenario inputs include severity and progression of the incident, warnings schedule, resource failures, and the presence or absence of emergency services in the region. CERM characterises different community types and combines this with Census data to simulate the behaviour of individuals and families throughout the day. For each incident and individual, simulated factors are correlated to estimate the level of threat, uncertainty and vulnerability, and thus estimate their likely response. We validated CERM using two independent historical bushfires affecting different types of communities and show that CERM can predict the behavioural response of each community to a high level of accuracy. To our knowledge, CERM is the first simulation model that can accurately predict community response to emergencies.

Bronnie Grieve Macquarie Franklin , Bellerive, TAS All Australian states and territories face the challenge of finding solutions to managing risks to life and property as well as natural ecosystem changes caused by an increasing population in high bushfire risk areas. However, encouraging communities to take an active role in bushfire planning and management is challenging in communities where people do not have the experience of the risk posed by bushfires nor vegetation management methods to reduce risk. In Victoria the consequences of the conflict between environmental values and risk created by the population shift was highlighted in the findings of the Victorian Bushfire Royal Commission. Recommendations from the findings required an increased focus on fire prevention, planned burning as well as sustaining ecological resilience. While that direction provides a strong emphasis on a planned burn target for public land there remains scant attention to private land where native vegetation is fragmented and where local communities have limited capacity and support infrastructure. With an increase in the use of planned burning comes the need to consider ecological outcomes. The capacity of fire agencies to do this on their own is limited so community engagement and partnership with natural resource management agencies and land owners is crucial. Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia have all developed or are in the process of developing programs to meet this need. As a consequence of the similarities in these state based programs, the Interstate Fire Alliance was formed to share the lessons of landowner engagement in fire management to produce a more unified approach to addressing the problem. This paper will discuss the lessons learned and the progress so far of several programs aimed at bringing together the fire agencies, land management agencies and land owners using innovative community engagement models.

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The effects of hazard reduction burning on the fuel array in nature reserves and urban parks in the Australian Capital Territory

Hazelwood Mine Fire

Adam J Leavesley, Neil Cooper and Brian Levine ACT Parks and Conservation Service, Canberra , ACT, Australia

On Sunday 9 February 2014, a day of extreme fire danger across much of south eastern Australia, a major fire started in the Hazelwood brown coal mine in the La Trobe Valley, VIC. Coal from this mine feeds the Hazelwood Power Station which generates 25% of the State’s power. The cause of the Hazelwood Mine fire is still being investigated, but is likely to have been from firebrands from one or both of two bushfires burning close to the edge of the mine. The fire has been described as “a vertical lava flow”, stretching over 3.7 kilometres of benched mine wall. The fire was extinguished after 45 days of intense, arduous and complex firefighting. It was one of the most complex and most difficult fires in Victoria’s history. The fire saw firefighters deployed from numerous State, Territory and Commonwealth fire agencies.

Julian Seddon and Tony Corrigan ACT Conservation Planning and Research, Canberra, ACT, Australia Jennie Mallela Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia Hazard reduction burning is a key component of the fuel management program in the Australian Capital Territory. Burning is used in a variety of situations depending on the applicable fuel standard, proximity to property, aims of land management and suitability of alternative methods. The main aim of the study was to characterise the changes in the fuel array due to burning. We followed a before-after-control-impact procedure in which 91 matched pairs of plots were established within 23 hazard reduction burns and adjacent unburnt areas. The fuel in all plots was characterised using the Overall Fuel Hazard Assessment (OFHA) method and then following burning re-assessed. Opportunistic assessments of unplanned fires were also taken for comparison. The average OFHA prior to burning was ‘High’. This reflects the dense grassy fuels, relatively sparse shrub layer and abundance of smooth-barked gum trees in Canberra’s nature reserves. Following burning the OFHA was reduced to an average of ‘Moderate’. The component of the assessment which exhibited the greatest change was the near-surface fuel which was usually consumed. Changes in the elevated fuel hazard depended on the intensity of the burn. A reduction in the bark hazard was correlated with a reduced elevated fuel hazard and some canopy scorch. Surface litter had a minor affect on the OFHA because of the high grass cover in most systems and the incomplete combustion of the litter. The sensitivity of the OFHA method to grass means that the fuel hazard may rapidly return to ‘High’ – i.e. when the grass cover approaches 50%. In contrast, wildfires reduced the OFHA to ‘Low’, due to much greater combustion of the elevated, bark and surface litter fuels. We predict that the OFHA at sites burnt by wildfire will increase more slowly because of the slower pace of re-growth of woody vegetation.

Euan Ferguson Country Fire Authority, Burwood East, VIC, Australia

Every firefighter entering the area of operations was subjected to blood Carbon Monoxide monitoring, resulting in excess of 40,000 health samples being taken. Health agencies implemented community atmospheric and health monitoring systems. The Mine operator and key contractors were integrated into the operational and incident management. Fire controllers established an “Expert Group” to provide mining industry and fire agency expert advice on fire suppression strategies, smoke management, water and mine geo-technical stability. An integrated method of firefighting was developed that saw heavy helicopters with buckets integrate with aerial appliances and compressed air foam tenders working in sequence with airport fire tenders, ground tankers and crews. The burning batters were divided into “grids” that were assessed daily. Suppression objectives were set using airborne and hand held thermal imagery. This fire was a combined response by volunteers and paid personnel from many response, support and recovery agencies. A Board of Inquiry has been conducted into aspects of the fire. Recommendations are expected to be handed down early September 2014.

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Oral Abstracts continued

AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference 58

Monitoring the health of Victorian volunteer firefighters

Typhoon Haiyan: The experiences of an Australian Field Hospital, Tacloban Philippines 2013

Teagan Knight, Peter Langridge and J Green Country Fire Authority, Burwood East, Vic Brad Aisbett Centre for Physical Activity and Nutrition, Deakin University, Melbourne, VIC Following the 2009 Black Saturday fires the Country Fire Authority (CFA) in Victoria implemented a cardiovascular risk screening program, known as ‘Healthwatch’, assessing the cardiovascular health of volunteers and offering health advice on an annual basis. This study assessed the changes in the risk profile of CFA’s volunteer workforce by comparing the risk profile of volunteer participants at the beginning of the program to that of participants in 2013. Field assessments were conducted on 250 female and 1004 male volunteers in 2010, and 172 female and 760 volunteers in 2013. Risk factors of cardiovascular disease, including blood lipid profiles, blood pressure, anthropometric measures and diet and lifestyle were evaluated to identify individuals’ absolute risk of having a heart attack in the next six years as being low, medium or high. Overall, the percentage of volunteers classified as having a high absolute risk in 2013 was 1.7% compared to 3.6% in 2010, whilst the percentage of people with a low absolute risk in 2013 was 92.4% compared to 88.9% in 2010. Greater improvements were seen in males (4.4% of males with a high absolute risk in 2010 and 1.8% in 2013) when compared to females, as the percentage of females with a high absolute risk of cardiovascular disease increased from 0.4% in 2010 to 1.2% in 2013. Changes in the risk profile of CFA volunteer Healthwatch participants since the inception of the program indicate a reduced risk of cardiovascular disease in this cohort. Given that volunteer firefighters often complete strenuous physical activity under stressful conditions it is imperative that their health and fitness be at the highest possible level to reduce their risk of heart attack or stroke on the fire ground. Additional intervention programs may be useful to further mitigate this risk.

Vaughan Poutawera Grace Orthopaedic Centre, Tauranga, NZ, New Zealand On 8 November 2013 Typhoon Haiyan struck the Philippines causing widespread loss of life and infrastructure. At the request of the Philippines Government, and as part of Operation Philippines Assist, the Australian Government deployed a field hospital and fully self-sustaining civilian medical team to assist with immediate post disaster medical and surgical care. This paper describes the establishment of the Australian Medical Assistance Team (AUSMAT) hospital, the surgical and medical workload, and handover to the local health system at the end of deployment. During the 23 days the hospital was operational, 2374 patients were assessed and treated and 222 operations performed. Operation Philippines Assist marks a critical point in the evolution of Australia’s capacity to provide professional emergent medical relief in the setting of sudden onset disaster. It was the first occasion in which an Australian team, comprised of members from all Australian states and territories, was deployed overseas to provide medical assistance in the wake of a natural disaster. Two New Zealand Medical Assistance Team (NZMAT) members were also embedded and deployed with the hospital. This deployment also marks the first time an AUSMAT field hospital has deployed with the capacity to provide surgical services. The AUSMAT field hospital adheres to the World Health Organization’s guidelines for foreign medical teams (FMT) and this paper outlines the professional response of a well-trained and equipped FMT in Tacloban, Philippines in the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan.

60 The case for professional standards in emergency services Deen Sanders Professional Standards Councils, Parramatta, NSW The call for greater public confidence and trust in all areas of our work is growing but how do we respond to that challenge in a way that grows our community of professionals and builds a strong career and opportunity path for emergency services personnel. This session focusses on what the emergency services community might be able to learn from the other professions in relation to developing excellence in professional standards and what the options for public recognition and even regulation look like. Drawing on his role as Australia’s chief regulator of professions, as CEO of he Professional Standards Councils, Dr Deen Sanders, discusses: • the role of the professions in community and professional confidence • navigating the education, accreditation, certification maze • regulation of professions in Australia • personal, group and public professionalism • effective mechanisms to build and improve professional standards

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Planning for the future State: understanding growth, climate and other changes across the emergency management landscape

Establishing deeper connections between urban planning and disaster risk reduction

Holly Foster Emergency Management Victoria, Melbourne, VIC, Australia Population growth, perpetual population transfer and sprawling urban boundaries are just some of the key challenges for emergency managers in Australia. Victoria has experienced some of the fastest population growth in Australia, with most of this change occurring around Melbourne and in particular, its fringe regions. Development has seen the boundary of the city extended twice. Recent bushfire events in these areas have highlighted the extreme challenges of rapid development and sprawl. More people, some with fewer skills or expectations of these hazards, are becoming increasingly faced with disasters on their doorstop. Further, lifestyle is often impeded by lagging transport infrastructure and long commute times as populations seek full time employment in main cities. The Victorian Fire Services Commissioner has undertaken a program of research to examine the intersection of landscape, population and climate trends. The 2021 Research Program explores a range of drivers across the State to better inform strategy, investment and planning. This presentation outlines the 2021 Research Program, beginning with a discussion of the three comprehensive environmental scans across Victoria (including metropolitan Melbourne, periurban areas and regional Victoria). This work and other projects in the program form the framework to better understand changes across the State. Furthermore, the program works toward finding meaningful pathways adapt to creeping transformations, such as climate change. In other words, making climate change adaptation a priority, today. The research outcomes identify opportunities for adaptation and focal points of collaboration between planning and the emergency services to better plan and respond to rapidly growing societies. The ways in which fire agencies and land management agencies can work together in the future to deal with these challenges.

Alan March and Jorge Leon University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC, Australia There is ongoing recognition of the links between human settlements’ design and location and the frequency and consequences of disasters. These links are now acknowledged by governments as core to building resilience. However, while some practical changes can be made in urban planning practices and systems, and in the emergency services sector, broader principles to guide integration of activities are lacking. The paper sets out a framework assessing the potential to integrate urban planning and disaster risk reduction. The practice of urban planning seeks favourable influences over spatial and functional features of cities and regions. It developed from design, health, law social action and economic development challenges and traditions. Accordingly, planning is supported by a range of legislative, agency, governmental and professional support mechanisms providing legitimacy and processes that support action. On the other hand, disaster risk reduction (DRR) is a relatively new approach, derived from emergency management traditions based primarily in the development of systems oriented to responding to disaster events, such as flood, earthquakes, fires and storms. While the professional base of DRR is being re-conceived, the multiple agencies and disciplines involved (including the sciences and research in disasters) now need to integrate their activities, including the response and civil agencies responsible for public order and safety. It is argued in this paper that appropriate integration of planning and DRR requires understandings of their fundamental qualities. Six categories are set out as a framework demonstrating key points of intersection between urban planning and DRR. The paper argues that integration of urban planning can be understood as one indicator of whether overall movements to operationalised DRR is being achieved, and sets key tests. The paper concludes with an assessment of the challenges and potentials of integrating urban planning and DRR.

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Oral Abstracts continued

AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference 63

Supporting our people to support their community

Supporting staff through tragedy

Trevor Brown and Jim Ryburn New Zealand Fire Service, Wellington, New Zealand

Alan Goodwin, Peter Farrell, Aaron Kennedy and Karyn Brown Dept of Environment and Primary Industries, East Melbourne, VIC, Australia

This paper provides a case study to address two themes - the impacts on emergency services personnel who are personally affected by the disaster and how agencies can prepare and/or support personnel to cope in these situations as well as provision of ongoing welfare support to emergency services personnel post significant disasters. On 22 February 2011 a major earthquake hit Christchurch. This was following on from a previous earthquake and subsequently many aftershocks in September 2010 which caused structural damage but no major injuries or deaths. The February earthquake caused extensive building collapse both in the Christchurch CBD and the surrounding areas, with initial reports suggesting hundreds of people may be trapped. The damage to fire stations in Christchurch was also extensive. The eventual loss of life was recorded at 185, there were no fatalities of fire service personnel, paid or volunteer, however three volunteer firefighters lost family members. The direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake were huge for fire service personnel. This ranged from obvious damage to homes and communities, where in some cases they were unable to stay, through to children and partners, parents, friends and other relatives who were wanting to leave Christchurch. All knew someone who had died or was seriously injured. Firefighters felt the disaster personally, as it was their home, and wanted to stay and help their city. The paper will describe the welfare approach adopted by the New Zealand Fire Service (NZFS), after 22 February, by considering immediate, medium and long term approaches. It will explore the things that were done very well, but will also reflect on the lessons learned that will help to improve response if ever called on again in similar circumstances. It will focus on how frontline staff and their families were supported in the early days of the disaster, the little things that helped, and the things that need to be considered for frontline workers and the families to help their recovery. We will describe some of the milestones on the journey and how we continue our work today with strong support from clinical experts.

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2012-13 was a busy fire season in Victoria. One of the more significant fires was in Harrietville in north east Victoria. This fire placed considerable pressure on fire staff and communities for a number of reasons. We tragically lost the lives of two of our DEPI firefighters after a tree fell on their vehicle. In addition, the community had concerns about the response to the fire and the impact that this was having for local communities and businesses, which prompted a review by the Office of the Emergency Services Commissioner. The department undertook a range of actions to deal with the grief of losing friends and colleagues, investigating the incident, all whilst continuing to respond to a significant fire situation. This was business continuity at its best. What was strongly evident throughout the management of the fatalities was the leadership displayed by those involved. Critical to the management of the incidents was the fact that this leadership was not delegated, and was both tangible and visable. There are significant lessons from these experiences that have been adopted into new practices and procedures. Some of the key learnings were: • Better understanding of how to manage an incident within an incident. • Evidence that DEPI needed to develop a Crisis Management Plan, and have a formalised protocol for when to activate. This has been developed and includes templates to use underpinned by training. • Identifying the need to initially give people space to selfdebrief amongst their peers, work colleagues, families and friends. This should then be followed up with counsellors as required. • A formal at risk register needs to be prepared and regularly monitored. • Better understanding when and where to use the various options such as peer support, group counselling, one-onones, and full-on psychological intervention. Professional psychological support will now be available to assist. • Identifying how to help staff feel safe both physically and mentally in the DEPI work environment.

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What do we know? Understanding attitudes, intentions and actions of residents in high risk communities post Black Saturday.

Development of the Victorian bushfire risk profiles and the concept of residual risk

John Gilbert Country Fire Authority, Mount Waverley, VIC, Australia The impact of the devastating 2009 Victorian bushfires has led to significant changes across the emergency management sector and the wider community. Research is vital to understanding the impact of the changes and to build an evidence base for the new and revised approaches. Country Fire Authority’s Research & Evaluation Unit conduct periodic post season telephone surveys in high bushfire and grassfire risk areas to explore a range of community safety issues, and to gauge the current state of householder preparedness. The topics covered in the surveys include awareness and understanding of bushfire and grassfire risk, attitudes to bushfire and grassfire risk, information needs, individual and household level preparedness, intended response, warnings and shelter options, community expectations, and key community safety programs and services. Since the 2009 bushfires, the post season surveys have taken place on an annual basis to monitor key changes in the attitudes, intentions and actions of individuals and households. The findings help to inform community safety program design and delivery, community messaging and program evaluation. The surveys have evolved to address specific areas of interest, such as heightened grassfire risk in recent summers. However, a core set of questions has been retained to allow monitoring of issues over time. In addition, the findings from the surveys have underpinned several other research projects that have focused in more depth on specific issues, for example community response to Fire Danger Ratings. This paper presents findings from the growing evidence base of five years of study. It illustrates how the research has been put into practice to help CFA, and the broader emergency management sector, to better understand and respond to the needs of Victorian communities in the context of the changes that have occurred since the 2009 bushfires and the subsequent Victorian Bushfire Royal Commission.

Andy Ackland, Andrew Blackett, Jaymie Norris and Gordon Friend Dept. Environment & Primary Industries, East Melbourne, VIC, Australia Natural Systems Analytics, Noojee, Victoria, Australia Bushfire risk is the likelihood of a bushfire starting, spreading and impacting assets and values of importance. The Department of Environment and Primary Industries (DEPI) carries out a range of activities to reduce the risk of bushfire on public land – including reducing forest fuels with planned burning and slashing – and is continually looking for more effective ways to achieve this. In recent years, DEPI, in collaboration with the University of Melbourne and the Bushfire Co-operative Research Centre, has invested in fire modelling software called Phoenix Rapidfire, which models the spread and intensity of a bushfire based on a number of variables. It can be used to show the likely effect of fuel reduction activities on bushfire risk. With the aid of Phoenix Rapidfire, DEPI has produced the Victorian Bushfire Risk Profiles Report using a range of inputs such as topography, fuel, vegetation types, bushfire history, fuel reduction history, private land vegetation and weather. Using Phoenix, DEPI modelled the start, spread and impact of hypothetical bushfires on human life and property, based on thousands of possible fire ignition points. The fires were initially modelled based on ‘worst case’ conditions – hot weather, low humidity and high fuel loads with no fuel reduction activities carried out – to establish a profile of ‘maximum risk’. As a comparison exercise, DEPI re-modelled the spread and intensity of the exact same bushfires, under the same weather conditions, but factored in fuel reduction either through planned burning or bushfire. Again, the average impact of these fires on human life and property was recorded and any difference against the maximum risk scenario was noted. By running this comparative modelling for different years, a series of ‘risk profiles’ has been produced for Victoria. The risk profiles depict the residual risk, which is the bushfire risk that remains after fuel reduction. The Victorian Bushfire Risk Profiles Report is an innovative integration of emerging bushfire research with planning, policy, and operational bushfire management, providing an evidentiary base to help inform decision making.

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Oral Abstracts continued

AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference 67

Vulnerability of road bridge infrastructure under extreme flood events

Improving the resilience of existing housing to severe wind events

Sujeeva Setunge RMIT University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

David J Henderson and John D Ginger Cyclone Testing Station, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD

Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

Weena Lokuge Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD, Australia

Damage investigations carried out by the Cyclone Testing Station (CTS) following severe wind storms have typically shown that Australian houses built prior to the mid-1980s do not offer the same level of performance and protection during windstorms as houses constructed to contemporary building standards. Given that these older houses will represent the bulk of the housing stock for many decades, practical structural upgrading solutions based on the latest research will make a significant improvement to housing performance and to the economic and social well being of the community.

Road network and critical road structures such as bridges, culverts and floodways have a vital role before, during and after extreme events to reduce the vulnerability of the community being served. Understanding the resilience of existing structures to known natural hazards empowers the road authorities in risk mitigation and emergency management. Major resources available to researchers to address the complex problem include the recent case studies of extreme events where failures of infrastructure and resultant impact on community have been captured by some road authorities. For example, 2010-2011 floods in Queensland, Australia, had a huge impact particularly on central and southern Queensland resulting in the state owned properties such as 9170 km road network, 4748 km rail network, 89 severely damaged bridges and culverts, 411 schools and 138 national parks. The paper presents a detailed analysis of the case study of 2013 floods in Lockyer Valley region in Australia to identify the critical failure mechanisms of road bridge structures exposed to flood events. In the region, 43 out of 46 bridges were damaged due to the 2013 flood. Major failure mechanisms of bridge structures have been identified as scouring of abutments and piers, damage to bridge decks due to urban debris impact and severe damages to bridge approach ramps. A subsequent analysis of the current design standards for bridge structures indicated the possible gaps in design practices which may have led to the observed failures. A methodology of quantifying the vulnerability of bridge structures has been identified through a detailed analysis of the case studies and an extensive review of published research. Application of the methodology is demonstrated using the Queensland case study.

Some structural retrofitting details exist for some forms of older housing but the take up of these details is limited. There is also evidence that retrofitting details are not being included into houses requiring major repairs following severe storm events, thus missing the opportunity to improve resilience of the house and the community. Hence the issues of retrofitting of older housing including feasibility, and hindrances on take-up etc. must be analysed. The primary objective of this project is to develop cost-effective strategies for mitigating damage to housing from severe windstorms across Australia. These evidence based strategies will be (a) tailored to both aid policy formulation and decision making in government and industry, and (b) provide guidelines detailing various options and benefits to homeowners and the building community for retrofitting typical at risk older houses in Australian communities. Outputs from this project will target a range of users from policy development through to homeowners and builders on recommended actions to improve resilience of existing housing.

69 Can building legislation protect us from natural hazards? Charles Fleischmann University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand Natural hazards can be broadly classified into five categories: geophysical (earthquakes and volcanoes), meteorological (storms), hydrological (floods), climatological (droughts), or biological (epidemics). Such natural events are nothing new and these events are a natural part of the environment we live in. What has changed significantly over the last decade is that we are now acutely aware of these natural events as they are streamed across our display devices from televisions in our homes to cellular phones in our pockets. The explosion of cheap video recording and display devices has brought these natural events into our lives as we have never seen before. The explosion of 24-7 media literally everywhere we look, has come with an increase in our awareness of the threat of these natural events and the feeling of vulnerability that comes with this heightened awareness. When people feel vulnerable they turn to the government for protection, which often leads to a call for tighter legislation to manage this topical threat. Yet how much can we actually do to legislate away the risk from natureâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s threats? This presentation will focus on the New Zealand building legislation in terms of its ability to mitigate the natural events we face. It will include a discussion of the risk on natural disasters in the context of everyday risks we routinely take for granted. Recent research into engineering resilience in our buildings will also be discussed. The presentation will end with a discussion of the changes that are being considered for the future and the ability of the legislation to mitigate the threat from natural hazards.

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Building back better

The Institution of Fire Engineers â&#x20AC;&#x201C; The international â&#x20AC;&#x153;knowledge hubâ&#x20AC;?

Michelle Streater NSW Rural Fire Service, Granville, NSW, Australia Bushfires can result in significant economic, environmental and social impacts. The recent loss of 210 houses in the Blue Mountains, NSW, with damage sustained to a further 150, has afforded affected home owners the opportunity to build back better in line with legislation and construction standards that address bushfire risk. Faced with the prospect of such a significant number of displaced residents, the NSW Rural Fire Services (NSW RFS) took a proactive role in the rebuilding process to minimise post fire economic and social impacts on affected communities. Since August 2002, in NSW, the provisions of Planning for Bushfire Protection are applied to development on bushfire prone land to decrease the risk to life and property and increase community resilience. Treatments applied include the management of fuels around dwellings, controlled landscaping, constructions standards, provisions of water, sitting and design and ensuring appropriate access. In January 2013, the loss of 53 dwellings in Coonabarabran initiated collaboration between the NSW RFS and the local Council to assist in the recovery phase by developing processes and procedures to assist residents during the approvals phase of the rebuilding process. This role was resurrected and further expanded following the Blue Mountains fires of October 2013.

Neil Gibbins QFSM The Institution of Fire Engineers, Stratford-upon-Avon, United Kingdom Reflecting on learning from fires and other emergencies around the world, Neil Gibbins will share examples of the application of intelligence to drive down risk. Countries that have achieved low levels of fire fatalities for the size of their population, those who have applied novel building design controls and those who are taking new approaches to fighting fires will be examined. The systems for gathering data and using them to predict failures and thus make emergency response as safe as practicable will also be explored. The differences between countries, due to climate, culture and social demographics will be considered. A clear focus will be placed on those areas that apply a continuum approach to safety, using prevention as the base target at design stage, achieving compliance during construction and occupation, and informing any operational response to an emergency if the former steps fail. The role of The Institution of Fire Engineers in this process, bringing together fire professionals from around the world, forming special interest groups and creating examinations to help improve technical knowledge will be discussed. As the Institution closes in on its Centenary in 2018, Neil will explore the potential for the future for fire and safety engineering, mapping the journey over the last 100 years and looking forward to the next.

The positively received service of walking homeowners though the process and requirements for bush fire standards and Council regulations has allowed homeowners to make informed decisions as well as provide certainty to the process. Where possible, the NSW RFS has taken a proactive approach to reducing the risk of hazards in order to create safer homes and reduce construction costs. The establishment of these processes and procedures during post fire recovery demonstrates that better engagement with residents early in the development process can contribute to a safer more resilient community and to minimise further post fire economic, environmental and social impacts.

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Oral Abstracts continued

AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference 72

Vulnerability and resilience: Older Queenslanders’ post-flood experiences

Alignment of social and environmental resilience in flood responses

Lauren Brockie and Evonne Miller Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

Melissa Parsons and Mark Southwell University of New England, Armidale, NSW, Australia

The recent floods in south-east Queensland, cyclones in north Queensland and severe heat and bushfire events in Victoria and South Australia has focused Australian policy, academic and community attention on the challenges associated with significant weather events (SWE), specifically pre-disaster preparation, disaster-response and post-disaster community resilience. Yet, to date, very little is known about how older people (among the most frail and vulnerable community members) manage during and after such disasters.

Resilience encompasses the principles and processes of ‘bouncing back’ following disruption or crisis. Australia’s National Strategy for Disaster Resilience refers to four characteristics of disaster resilient communities: functioning under stress, successful adaptation, self-reliance and social capacity. In contrast, the characteristics of disturbance resilient ecosystems are seen as heterogeneity, diversity, redundancy and connectivity.

This qualitative research addresses this knowledge gap, exploring older residents’ experiences of the 2011 and 2013 Queensland floods. This paper focuses on one element of the disaster cycle, specifically their post-flood experiences. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with 10 older residents who were evacuated from their homes during both floods. These older residents, many of whom had lived through floods in 1955, 1977, 2011 and then 2013, described a very high level of personal responsibility in terms of flood preparedness and a matter of fact approach to the recovery and re-build process. A thematic analysis revealed three key themes that intertwined to promote post-flood resilience: individual capacity (self-belief and proactive flood-proofing behaviours), community spirit (family and community support) and accessing assistance (practical and emotional). These older adults (with an average age of 70 years) did not see themselves as vulnerable, although admitted that they relied heavily on family, friends and neighbours for practical assistance throughout the disaster cycle. By focussing on how older adults experienced and interpreted the post-flood recovery and re-build process, this research has highlighted the unique age-specific needs and vulnerabilities of older adults during SWE. Given predictions that one in four Australians will be older than 65 years by 2050 (increasing from 13% to 22% of the population; Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2005), our hope is these findings will help ensure the unique needs of this critical and growing proportion of the population are addressed within disaster policy planning and development.

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Reconciling social and environmental views of resilience is important in managing and responding to flood hazards because floods have potentially damaging social impacts as well as environmental benefits. In January 2011, a flood within the top 0.01% of flows on record occurred in the Tenterfield area of Northern NSW. The flood caused substantial change in the river landscape, and significant damage to farm and other infrastructure. We examined the effect of funding made available for recovery works on the social and environmental resilience of the district. The funding enhanced social capacity by building trust, recognition of difficulty and shared responsibility. Self-reliance was demonstrated by the substantial contributions made by landholders to repair farm infrastructure. The district has a social memory of this and previous floods, and an awareness of catchment processes, although only moderate adaptation was displayed in the rebuilding of infrastructure to avoid future damage. The river landscape contains the ability to recover, but environmental works conducted after the flood such as the removal of instream woody debris, may have decreased ecosystem resilience. Organisations responsible for social and environmental management should work in alignment to ensure that disaster recovery is integrated to produce holistic resilience outcomes.

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Supporting our people through adversity

Making sense of it all – Thoughts from a burnt out Training Director

Ben Millington NSW Rural Fire Service, Granville, NSW, Australia Allison Rowlands NSW Ministry for Policy and Emergency Services, Sydney, NSW The NSW State Emergency Management Committee (SEMC) first established a Working Group in 2007 to develop an evacuation framework in the event of significant natural disaster. In March 2012, an evacuation order was issued for the communities of Hay and Maude (2500 residents) due to predicted flooding which would exceed the levee height. Given the limited accommodation options, a decision was taken to establish a Major Evacuation Centre in Deniliquin using temporary infrastructure. This was further influenced by a number of factors such as road access, adjacent townships already subjected to evacuation and utility failures. State level personnel based in Sydney facilitated various aspects of this operation in close co-operation with local authorities. The temporary facility was established within 48 hours at the local showground and was managed by experienced staff. Many Government and non-government agencies contributed resources and personnel including the NSW Rural Fire Service and Deniliquin Shire Council who supplied significant logistical support. 405 people were registered and 106 animals accommodated over the 10 day period with some 3500 meals served. A vast number of services were provided on site including public health, transport and personal support. This was the first time such a centre had been established in NSW and thus forced emergency managers at all levels to think outside normal practices. The nature in which this centre was established has since been recognised as best practice by a number of jurisdictions. As a result of the 2011/12 floods, it was agreed by SEMC members that evacuation guidelines were needed to assist local and regional Emergency Management Committees alike. This presentation will outline the Deniliquin experience; discuss key lessons learnt and the journey in developing the State Evacuation Management Policy.

Andrew J Short Queensland Fire and Emergency Services, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

“There is not to be found, in all history, any miracle attested by a sufficient number of men, of such unquestioned good sense, education and learning, as to secure us against all delusion in themselves”. David Hume (Scottish Philosopher 1711-1776) The sophistication of fire and emergency service training across Australasian agencies is higher than it ever has been before. So, why are operational reviews still identifying training shortfalls, and why is the cost of training being questioned, particularly by economic rationalists? Over the past two decades the training and professional development journey for Australasian agencies has seen a deliberate move from lesser structured and locally designed training content and delivery, to a complex national-based standardised training and development environment. The benefits gained from this transition are broad and comprehensive, but the cost and impost required of agencies to stay in the training game are great. This paper explores the complexities that are now apparent in the Australian Vocational Education and Training (VET) environment and seeks to identify the key factors that must be addressed for agencies to continue to derive value from the investment that structured training and development requires. Items of note include: • When it comes to training matters, what should we expect of our people (paid and volunteer), and what might they expect of us as training leaders? • The critical linkage between operations, training and organisational capability. • Is technology a key answer for training delivery, or is it one part of the solution? • The suitability of the current VET regulatory environment. Is it value adding? • So - where to from here, and what are the likely challenges?

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AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference 76

How real learning challenges organisational resilience: A New Zealand Fire Service case study

Young emergency management volunteers “Change It Up”

Paul McNab and Lynne Warrin New Zealand Fire Service, Wellington, New Zealand

Zoe Kenyon AFAC, East Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Fire Service personnel are subjected to stressful situations on a daily basis. Recently, New Zealand has experienced a series of significant emergencies, such as the Pike River mine explosion and the Canterbury earthquakes that have challenged and stretched those involved. Maintaining effectiveness under these operational circumstances requires a high level of resilience.

AFAC managed a national emergency management project on behalf of the Australian Emergency Management Volunteer Forum (AEMVF) aimed at increasing the participation of youth and culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities in emergency management (EM) volunteering. The project outcomes were designed to act as an enabler to the national EM industry to assist in building a more sustainable, diverse and representative volunteering profile. This presentation will cover three outputs of this project; the production of a testimonial video; the Young EM Volunteers ‘Change It Up’ event; and the development of The Diversity Model.

However, embedding lasting improvements to operational practice requires an equally high level of organisational resilience, as does responding to the event itself. A learning organisation must be courageous and resilient to face failures, scrutiny and deal with lessons learned upfront. This is an uncomfortable, but valuable pathway. For the New Zealand Fire Service (NZFS) a case in point is the 2010 Lepperton incident in which two firefighters were seriously burned while attempting to extinguish a fire at a livestock facility. Decisions were made that could have had more serious consequences. In 2013, using a new training approach, NZFS used the Lepperton Operational Review and Corrective Actions Report to develop a learning case study as a refresher for all Executive Officers. Its aim was to provide succinct, realistic and engaging learning, and to encourage meaningful discussion about the lessons that could be learned. A realistic online scenario was developed, with facilitated reflection and discussion throughout. Feedback from the training has been extremely positive. Over 2014, training staff plan to undertake research with participants to assess the effectiveness of this learning approach and explore whether behavioural changes have resulted in the field. The training uncovered unexpected outcomes that challenged organisational and personal resilience. Challenges included meeting legal requirements and the level of acceptance of a ‘no-blame’ culture, while bringing attention to an incident that involved decision-makers still within the Fire Service. The presentation will cover: • The New Zealand Fire Service Lepperton case study approach • Lepperton – its impact on learners • Lepperton – the unanticipated outcomes that have required organisational courage and resilience to work through • reflections about what resilience means in the context of a Fire Service learning organisation, and how this can be achieved.

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Australia has an ageing population and younger people need to become more involved in EM volunteering to assist in the sustainability of the industry. Two outcomes of the project addressed this issue and worked to raise the profile of young volunteers. A video was produced showcasing testimonials from seven volunteers collectively discussing their experiences, challenges and what they can offer the EM sector. Additionally, the ‘Change It Up’ event gave 15 volunteers an opportunity to ‘pitch’ ideas to better engage young members in the industry, providing solutions to improve youth recruitment and retention across the national sector. The event demonstrated the skills, dedication and commitment that young volunteers have, challenging the conventional Generation Y stereotype. As well as improving age diversity, improving cultural diversity across the EM industry is also a key challenge. A framework was developed along with The Diversity Model, which is addresses the critical components required to assist organisations in the engagement of potential volunteers from diverse demographics. The Model identifies organisational culture as the core component, with four surrounding elements concerning processes and initiatives for agencies to consider when designing programs to engage diverse volunteers.

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Future Industry Directions

Bushfires and natural hazards: A simple equation? Bridging the gap between the policy and the practical

Greg Mullins AFSM Commissioner, Fire & Rescue NSW AFAC President This paper advances the proposition that emergency services in Australia face a complex confluence of influences that will fundamentally re-shape future directions. Foremost amongst these are four “mega trends” currently facing the world: 1. Climate change 2. An aging population and demographic changes 3. Aftermath of the global financial crisis, and 4. The information age. Whilst emergency services remain admired and appreciated by the community, they are no longer sacrosanct when it comes to governments trying to balance budgets, and citizens demanding more accountability. Up until recently unscathed in comparison to fire and emergency services in the USA, UK and Europe, all Australian services have in recent years faced budget cuts, restructures and restrictions. Nationally there is a trend toward centralisation, a common response by governments desiring greater cost and other forms of control. At the same time services face real-time critique of operations through the increasing use of social media, and increasing demands for immediate information and advice during the response phase of emergencies. Various inquiries have been critical of the emergency services, and this has impacted on morale and volunteerism, whilst career services face increasing industrial pressures from unions. Where will all of this lead? Commissioner Mullins draws upon international and local experiences of similar pressures and responses to suggest possible outcomes where services act as passive observers, or alternatively, seek to be in the driving seat of innovation and positive change.

Richard Thornton Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, East Melbourne, VIC, Australia The environment that the newly established Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC (BNHCRC) finds itself in is a world away from that which its predecessor, the Bushfire CRC, dealt with. The conceptually simple addition of all natural hazards to the research mandate has significant implications when it comes to the breadth of players in the discussion. This now needs to bridge the United Nations and broad international treaties, through to local government and non-government organisations, to ensure that every person in every community is as safe as can be from hazards. A primary role of the BNHCRC is to act as the national research and research coordination body for natural hazards in Australia. But this is not just any research; it is research that makes a difference. Research use is paramount! The BNHCRC conducts research that is addressing the highest priority, national needs of our partners. It engages and funds the best researchers from around the country and links them in a substantive way to the end users of their work, to ensure that it is adopted of benefit the Australian communities. But as simple as this sounds it quickly becomes complex in a policy and practice setting. At the highest level the CRC needs to engage with the United Nations work on disaster risk reduction through the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and its Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015, which in turn flows through to the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience overseen by the COAG Ministerial Law, Crime and Community Safety Council and its Australian and New Zealand Emergency Management Committee and its various committees of senior officials. This is mirrored through the work of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation and its High Impact Weather projects. At the local level, where ‘the rubber hits the road’, there are far more players. Community resilience and protection from the impacts of hazards include a similar cornucopia of players. These include the commonwealth, state and local governments, non-government and charity organisations, such as the Red Cross, Salvation Army, and Green Cross and also the private sector through insurance, finance and property development, and smaller suppliers of products and services. So the seemingly simple first step of broadening the agenda to other hazards opens up a complexity that were not originally evident. This talk will discuss some of these intertwining drivers for the BNHCRC and demonstrate how the CRC is working with the EM sector to understand and deal with them. It will also discuss the current national research agenda and how it fits with the other competing agendas.

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AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference 80

The 2013 NSW Bushfires – The challenges in a new age of information and warnings

Tonga Tsunami Wave Inundation Model – Effective tsunami evacuation planning and partnership

Anthony Clark NSW Rural Fire Service, Lidcombe, NSW, Australia Shane Fitzsimmons Commissioner, NSW Rural Fire Service, Granville, NSW Rob Rogers Deputy Commissioner, NSW Rural Fire Service, Granville, NSW In 2013, New South Wales faced a number of significant periods of increased fire danger and fire activity. In January, catastrophic fire danger ratings were experienced across large population centres, along with a number of destructive fires which destroyed more than 50 homes. This presented a number of challenges, including the need to warn people over extensive areas and at one of the busiest times of the year for some holiday locations. Across September and October, NSW again faced a period of dramatically increased fire danger with fires destroying more than 200 homes in areas including the Blue Mountains, Port Stephens, Central Coast, Western Sydney and Southern Highlands. This fire event, in which a State of Emergency was declared, saw an unprecedented level of public interest, particularly through mass media, websites and social media. These fire events were one of the first major tests of the new, mainly nationally consistent warning arrangements which were introduced in 2009. The presentation will be a case study of the experience of NSW across the 2013 fires, including the extensive use of mass media to deliver information and warnings, and social media as a delivery mechanism and a source of fireground information and intelligence. The presentation will also include the results of extensive community research undertaken by the NSW RFS and Bushfire CRC, which has looked at the community response to information and warnings during these events.

Anthony Blake and Mafua Maka Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Suva, CE, Fiji Leveni Aho National Emergency Management Office, Ministry of Infrastructure, Government of Tonga, Nuku’alofa, TONGA Tonga is located along the Pacific “ring of fire”, an extremely active seismic zone. In 2009, a tsunami generated near Samoa devastated the island of Niuatoputapu in Tonga killing people and destroying over half the houses. Though the country’s main island of Tongatapu was not affected, this event raised serious concerns on the country’s ability to effectively respond. In light of the destruction from the tsunami in 2009, the Government, working with the Secretariat of the Pacific Community and Geoscience Australia, developed a tsunami inundation model in 2012 to help visualise the potential impact of large tsunamis generated from the Tonga Trench on the main island of Tongatapu. The scenarios used for the model included tsunamis generated from large magnitude earthquakes (8.7) occurring along the Tonga Trench as well as from an earthquake with characteristics similar to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan (9.0). Numerical modelling was used to show that such an event could cause substantial tsunami inundation in Nuku’alofa, having a maximum depth of five metres. Using the initial sea surface displacement generated by a magnitude 8.7 earthquake along the Tonga Trench and high resolution surface models of both the terrain and nearshore bathymetry, the numerical model showed that 20 minutes after the earthquake, the tsunami would likely flood most of the northern part or the CBD of Nuku’alofa to a depth of five metres or more. This large initial inundation would then be followed by subsequent inundation waves at about 40 and 85 minutes respectively. By assuming bare earth topography, discounting the effect of buildings and vegetation, the model provides a worst case scenario to guide the evacuation plans for Nuku’alofa. The numerical tsunami model further shows four high spots within the CBD that is not inundated and could be used as evacuation zones. The NEMO has used this information to engage with communities in identifying and preparing evacuation routes and zones. Areas that have no road access are now being prioritised for implementation starting from 2014. High rise buildings within the CBD will also be considered as evacuation zones once they are certified to be structurally sound. In addition to the community preparedness activities, tsunami sirens have also been installed in high risk areas.

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Tsunami risk in NSW – An update on recent modelling and risk assessment

Enhancing community resilience – Or, what emergency managers can learn from Vanilla Ice

Felicia Andrews NSW State Emergency Service, Wollongong, NSW, Australia David Hanslow NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, Newcastle, NSW, Australia Andrews F, Beadle C, Davies B, Fraser A, Garber S, Greenslade D, Hanslow D, Horspool N, Kuster N, Opper S, and Treloar D. Tsunamis pose considerable risk to coastal communities around the globe and understanding this risk is a key aspect of emergency management and risk reduction. This paper explores the nature and extent of tsunami hazard to NSW coastal communities and informs tsunami emergency planning and management. We outline the results of recent risk scoping which have examined sources of tsunami hazard and tsunami history, together with results of inundation studies for selected sites and discuss the level of tsunami risk to these NSW communities. We also outline how the results have complimented research by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in confirming tsunami warning thresholds for NSW. Work undertaken to date indicates the coast of NSW has a moderate tsunami hazard level. Whilst historical impact of tsunami inundation in NSW has been relatively minor, and generally restricted to marine based events, the modelling of selected earthquake generated events indicates the potential for land inundation particularly at high (rare) return periods. Low lying populated communities around estuary foreshores are particularly at risk although results also indicate the potential for inundation of open coast sites at very high (very rare) return periods. This work informs further planning and preparedness in emergency risk management on a state and national level. The results confirm the need for, and support the ongoing collaborative development of, emergency management arrangements for tsunami.

Dan Neely Wellington Region Emergency Management Office, Wellington, New Zealand The amalgamation of the nine Civil Defence offices across the Wellington region in 2012 offered the opportunity to develop a fresh approach to emergency management. By drawing on the lessons learned from Christchurch, the new Wellington Region Emergency Management Office (WREMO) put particular emphasis on enhancing community resilience by forming an entire team that embraces a community development approach to emergency management. Dan’s presentation will help answer the “how” in enhancing community resilience by highlighting aspects of WREMO’s Community Resilience Strategy which has become the foundation document for an International Centre of Excellence in Community Resilience through the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.

84 Mission Command for fire and emergency managers Euan Ferguson Country Fire Authority, Melbourne, Victoria Lark McDonald Mission-Centered Solutions inc, Franktown, Colorado, U.S.A This paper communicates the implementation of mission command doctrine in an Australian emergency services agency. This paper proposes how Mission Command can be relevant to the command and control operations of emergency management agencies. Over time and numerous investigations more and more layers of rules, regulations and Standard Operating Procedures (SOP’s) have been written and applied to all that we do. This prescriptiveness is applied well in routine situations (i.e. small grass fires, motor vehicle accidents,) but the same cannot be said when confronted with the ‘unexpected’. The unexpected throws rules and SOP’s off script. A climate of ‘permission asking’ has evolved with our people who are at risk of being more afraid of making mistakes and breaking rules than of losing the advantage from a previously unrecognised operational opportunity. Mission Command is a philosophy that allows an organisation to make rapid decisions in uncertain, fast-changing, time critical environments and translate them, without delay, into decisive action. It attempts to maximise human creativity, initiative and diligence. It is enabled by decentralised decision making, allowing local personnel with local knowledge and understanding of the situation to make decisions to achieve the leader’s intent. This paper communicates the foundational doctrine for Mission Command, its concepts and principles, and the organisational alignment required to implement Mission Command successfully. It also contains examples of intent-based leadership, historical case studies, and a discussion of the alignment of Mission Command with AIIMS. The presentation will discuss the evidence that Mission Command is the safest, most efficient and most effective command philosophy during dynamic large-scale emergencies. It will describe the business case of Mission Command and discuss its current implementation, challenges and successes within the CFA and other organisations. AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

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AFAC and Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Conference 85

‘Why don’t they do what we think they should?’ Understanding people’s response to natural hazards

Building resilience: Understanding community needs and expectations of the emergency management sector

Alan Rhodes Emergency Management Victoria , Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Holly Foster Emergency Management Victoria , Melbourne, VIC, Australia

The Bushfire Safety Policy Framework, developed in response to the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission (VBRC) recommendations, reflects Victoria’s approach to community bushfire response. The VBRC noted the need for a more comprehensive policy approach that reflected the reality of fires and people’s behaviour. Following the 2013 fire season, the Fire Services Commissioner Victoria commissioned a review of the Framework to examine the extent to which it effectively supported safe community response in fire emergencies.

Geoff Kaandorp Metropolitan Fire and Emergency Services Board, Melbourne, Victoria

The review involved over 120 detailed community interviews in three fire-affected locations representing different fire situations and communities. The review identified the measures implemented under the policy framework, how people responded, and the effectiveness of the measures intended to support them. The review examined five key areas of activity by agencies and government – education and awareness, community capacity building, local planning, warnings and shelter options, and assessed their effectiveness in supporting community preparedness and response. The presentation will outline the key findings and implications of the review. Of particular interest, the study identified a range of different response archetypes that describe how people understand and respond to bushfire threat. The archetypes provide insight into not only what motivates people and the way they respond, but also why measures intended to support safe response often fail to influence people’s behaviour. The response archetypes also identify a range of community needs, many of which currently are not addressed by agencies’ actions. The study highlighted the need for a re-orientation in the way agencies go about working with the community and the ways they seek to influence people’s behaviour. While the review focussed on the response of Victorian communities to bushfire, the findings have relevance for all agencies seeking to engage the community in preparing for and responding to natural hazard threats

Victoria’s emergency management agencies have adopted a common vision of ‘A safer and more resilient community’. Underpinning this vision is the shared responsibility mantra that highlights the relationship between resilient communities and resilient emergency management organisations. To pursue this vision, the Metropolitan Fire Brigade and Fire Services Commissioner have collaborated with their stakeholders on a project to better understand how resilient the Victorian community is, as well as their expectations and needs of the emergency management sector. The work applies an all-hazards, all-agency approach; providing a holistic, sector-wide view of community resilience and expectations. The study capitalises on the Fire Services Commissioner’s 2021 Research Program by implementing a unique methodology to explore likely future needs and expectations of the Victorian community. The project also outlines how the evidence is used in service delivery planning. This qualitative study comprised in-depth, face to face interviews with people from a range of backgrounds, locations and community groups. The interviews were comprehensive, generating a breadth of knowledge on topics such as Victorian’s experiences of emergencies; their perception of ‘community’; and what they see their role as being in an emergency, both now and in future. This research highlights the vast differences between and among community groups, exemplifying the need for nuanced approaches by emergency management to promote shared responsibility between the community and the emergency services sector. The future orientated methodology also identifies pathways for the sector to better understand drivers of change, and anticipate changes in community expectations. This presentation will outline the first step in a program of research that will enable the sector to effectively encourage more resilient communities.

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Training: How do we build north Australian community capacity to manage fires and other natural hazards at a landscape scale?

Use it or lose it? Skill atrophy over time in incident management teams

Stephen A Sutton Charles Darwin University, NT, Australia The capacity of communities to prepare, respond to and recover from disasters stems from a matrix of factors, but training and the development of skills and knowledge is critical. This paper will look at training needs for northern Australia, taking into account the demography and geography that collude to maintain widely dispersed, remote and isolated populations, with poor infrastructure who are faced with a regular suite of natural disasters that impact at a landscape scale. The management of fire in northern Australia in particular requires integrated strategic to operational programs working at a landscape scale, with 340,000 km2 burnt on average each year. In addition to responding to unacceptable fire scales, there is an increasing need to capitalise on economic opportunities arising from the abatement of greenhouse gases from fires in the savannas, support the safety of the communities, maintain regional biodiversity, enhance agriculture and pastoralism specifically, as well as maintain cultural traditions. And this work has started. Over the last 15 years management programs have emerged (in Cape York, Arnhem Land and the Kimberley) that have taken on this challenge and communities are now implementing the fire regimes they want. But these programs rely on the wisdom and skills of veteran fire and land managers. The current training regime, derived from the southern Australian context (and correctly focussed on safety of personnel) needs to be adapted to encompass these wider aspirations. It not clear that veteran fire managers can train and mentor the hundreds or thousands of fire and natural disaster managers that will be required in the future. An analysis of training needs for northern Australian landscape fire management has been undertaken, relying on the input of the people currently doing the work. The findings indicate that a much greater emphasis needs to be placed on the management of fire in an ecological context at a landscape scale, taking into account the extant knowledge of Aboriginal Traditional Owners. There is also a need to take time to mentor trainees to provide them with the skills and knowledge to manage fires at a landscape scale.

Peter AJ Hayes Kaplan Business School, Docklands, VIC, Australia An important question for organisations operating incident management teams (IMTs) is the frequency and type of exercising required to maintain suitably skilled performance. In Australia, the endorsement period for accredited Level 3 roles typically varies between three and five years, subject to some exercise and refresher training. Unfortunately, only limited research on skill retention and atrophy has been undertaken in the emergency services. Drawing on military and healthcare research, this paper describes how IMT membersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs) may decline over time. Four factors appear to be central to this phenomenon. First, the time elapsed since the KSAs were last used; most of the deterioration in KSAs occurs during the first year away from the activity. Second, the complexity of the KSAs; complex KSAs tend to decline more quickly than basic KSAs. Third, the type of KSA is important; performance on cognitively demanding tasks tend to decline more quickly than performance on physical tasks. Finally, the level of expertise that the IMT member has developed is positively related to the retention of higher levels of expertise over the first year. There are a variety of training approaches that organisations may take to improve the retention of KSAs. The use and limitations of overtraining to support KSA retention is described. Distributed rather than block-based training tends to be more effective for maintaining KSAs. Individual differences may also account for differences in skill decay following training. Trainees who demonstrate higher levels of mastery orientation of self-efficacy are more likely to undertake voluntary training activities to maintain their KSAs. This paper will review the applicability of these training approaches for mitigating the effects of skill atrophy in IMT personnel.Â

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Use of integrated training products to support grassland curing observers

What is so scary about planning for bushfire? – CFA’s approach to strategic settlement planning

Jude Alexander, Rosalind Thieme, Susan Kidnie, David Nichols, Rachel Bessell, Danielle Martin and Alex Chen

Andrew Andreou

Implementing a risk-based approach to strategic bushfire management planning on public land

Country Fire Authority, East Burwood, VIC, Australia

Grassland curing training comprises an integrated set of products designed to support the principles required to make grassland curing observations in the field. The training products include an online training course, a photo reference field card and field guide. Consistent, accurate reporting is based on a flexible understanding of the underlying characteristics of grass as it dries (cures). The structure and composition of grasslands are complex and dynamic; therefore teaching every possible set of parameters by rote would be impractical. Training is available and accessible to all observers, regardless of education or literacy levels. This paper outlines a principle-based approach taken to support ongoing learning by grassland curing observers. Principles include observing the key changes in grassland senescence and fuel loads throughout the fire season, landscape-level and textural changes. Observing changes at all scales is essential. The training products were developed to support ongoing training. The online training course contains short videos followed by review questions. The videos also support incidental training – they are available for other courses and Country Fire Authority (CFA) Brigade meetings. The field card is sequential, logical and colour-coded to assist with consistent reporting in the field. The field guide is designed to facilitate checking and analysis, and contains conceptual links between curing and grassfire behaviour. The integrated products have been deployed for operational use. They work together to provide initial and further learning, and ongoing support in the field. The products are used in different times and places, and contain content appropriate to each. The field card is used in grasslands and contains comparative photos for making observations, whereas the online course is used indoors and contains instructional photos to clarify measuring techniques. Using different products to deliver one consistent message assists with multiple encoding and supports retention of the principles involved.

Country Fire Authority, East Burwood, VIC, Australia

It seems that the mere mention of the words ‘bushfire risk’ strikes fear into most planners, whilst ‘planning processes’ does the same for many fire agencies. Why is this so? Planners barely raise an eyebrow when someone mentions the words ‘native vegetation’, ‘significant landscape’ or even ‘topography’. They confidently identify these constraints in an area, identify any likely ‘show stoppers’, talk to proponents and incorporate these considerations into the decision making process (including avoidance and mitigation measures). So why is it when these physical constraints combine to create a bushfire hazard, that planners seem unable to incorporate them into their day job? It really is a simple equation: vegetation plus topography equals bushfire hazard. If you then add bushfire hazard and people, the result is bushfire risk. In many proposed new or expanding settlements there is often an intersection between pressure for development and identifiable bushfire hazard. Historically, fire agencies have tended to work with planners, builders and the community once a development proposal is fairly well advanced. At this stage in the process, it is often too late to consider broader settlement planning issues, including whether the risk from bushfire makes the development unacceptable and should be avoided. The outcome of the apparent ‘fear’ of bushfire risk is that consideration of bushfire is delayed (or even bypassed) in the strategic planning process for many proposed new or expanding settlements. This is a quite a perverse outcome, given that following the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, the state policy was updated and now prioritises the protection of human life over other planning policy considerations in areas at risk from bushfire. Given planners are used to balance competing objectives, perhaps bushfire as the ‘trump’ card seems too scary. The purpose of this presentation is to explain the process currently being implemented in Victoria. The process marries strategic land use planning and bushfire considerations with the aim of directing development to areas of lower bushfire risk, avoiding the current legacy risk that has resulted in the tragic events of February 7 2009, as well as other bushfire events.

Courtney Bertram and Sam Marwood

Victorian Government, East Melbourne, VIC, Australia

The ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires that burnt through Victoria in February 2009 resulted in Australia’s highest ever loss of life from a bushfire, deeply and enduringly affecting the community and fire management agencies. The Victorian Government’s adoption of all 67 recommendations of the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission that followed Black Saturday advanced the implementation of a strategic risk-based approach to bushfire management on public land. At the core of the approach is a new process for strategic bushfire management planning that is consistent with international standards for risk management. In developing landscape-scale bushfire management strategies, regional planning teams seek to both reduce the impact of major bushfires on the community and maintain or improve the resilience of our natural ecosystems, with primacy of life the highest priority. The strategic planning process draws on cutting-edge bushfire simulation modelling and risk analysis to quantify bushfire risk and enable rigorous risk assessment and evaluation of strategy options for managing that risk. Stronger engagement with stakeholders and the community enables a greater understanding of what people value, which in turn informs strategy selection. Victoria’s innovative new approach recognises bushfire management as a key component of land management, and applies a community informed and evidence based process to decision making. The first Strategic Bushfire Management Plans developed through the application of a strategic risk-based planning process will be released in late 2014. These plans will be the first of their kind developed anywhere in the world. As we commemorate the five year anniversary of Black Saturday, Victoria stands far better prepared to manage both the risks posed by major bushfires and impacts of our bushfire management activities on the community and the natural environment.

The presentation will identify practical ways that bushfire risk can be considered in the strategic planning process.

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Building community resilience to disasters – What could and should emergency service organisations be doing to empower communities to take effective action and leading roles in the mitigation of risk

Emerging trends in emergency public communication

104 Water immersion cooling of firefighters – Forearms or multiple body segments? Matt Brearley

National Critical Care and Trauma Response Centre, Darwin, NT, Australia

Anthony Walker

University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Rapidly cooling firefighters post emergency response is likely to increase the operational effectiveness of fire services during prolonged incidents. Ice vests, misting fans, iced towels, cool intravenous fluids, forearm water immersion, immersion of multiple body segments and crushed ice ingestion are among the firefighter cooling modes tested to date. Currently, forearm immersion in cold water is a recommended cooling modality for use in firefighting settings by the National Fire and Protection Association (NFPA). The NFPA recommendation appears based upon the research of Selkirk et al. (2004)1, that reported core temperature cooling by forearm immersion as superior to that conferred by seated rest or a misting fan. A number of fire services in Australasia have subsequently implemented postincident cooling protocols that include forearm immersion. Interestingly, this cooling modality does not extend beyond the fire and rescue services into the similarly high pressure, time sensitive environments of elite sport and emergency medical settings, likely due to the unacceptably slow core temperature cooling rates (0.01-0.05˚C/min). In comparison, the core temperature cooling rates produced by multi segment immersion are generally classified as acceptable or ideal (0.03-0.35˚C/min). Based upon the extensive field of research supporting multi-segment immersion and comparable logistics of establishing forearm or multi-segment immersion, we recommend fire and rescue management reassess their approach to firefighter rehabilitation. Specifically, we question the use of forearm immersion as the recommended cooling method to rapidly lower firefighter core temperature during rest periods. By utilising multi-segment immersion to dissipate excess body heat, fire and rescue services would adopt an evidence based approach, likely to assist the maintenance of operational capability during arduous, sustained responses. 1Selkirk GA, McLellan TM, Wong J. 2004. Active versus passive cooling during work in warm environments while wearing firefighting protective clothing. J Occup Environ Hyg. 1(8): 521-31

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Gwynne Brennan

Country Fire Authority, Burwood East, VIC, Australia

This paper begins without the usual attempts to define resilience and shared responsibility but instead introduces the fundamentals of community resilience, reminding us of the story of brigade and emergency service formation in the 1800’s. A time when Australia didn’t need its Government to strategise for resilience, a time when people worked together with local leaders using existing knowledge and resources to prepare and deal with disasters. Fast-forward to the modern day where government commitment to embedding principles for disaster resilience practice in emergency management legislation combined with a reduction in spending, signals an end to top-down service delivery. There is now a need for an improvement on previous approaches focused on informing communities to giving people far greater power to shape their own lives and environments. The role of emergency services shifts from a paternalistic one of provider and carer, to that of enabler; responding to and supporting local action. So how do we as a sector support communities to self-determine when outside rural areas, individuals appear overly reliant on government support, volunteering is on the decline, social capital is low and the air of entitlement seems pervasive? The answer lies in a return to our roots, working at the local level, forming partnerships and displaying trust in personal and community strengths. A move towards localism and community empowerment requires emergency services to seek out different ways of working in support of, rather than for communities. Community Led Planning (CLP) offers a way of achieving this, resulting in empowered communities that are more resilient and capable of meeting their own needs. This paper will draw down from a recent case study in Victoria where CLP was trialled across 16 communities. It includes an exploration of how much of a role emergency services could or should play in building community capacity. As well as how community expectations and demands on local emergency service providers can be managed, whilst people identify their local needs and priorities to agree on a range of different actions which help to minimise risk.

Phil Campbell

NSW State Emergency Service, Wollongong, NSW, Australia

In the past decade there has been a revolution in the way in which emergency services have communicated with the public through mass media. In particular, the digital revolution has enabled emergency services to engage with communities as never before, with a move to information collaboration in disasters between emergency services and the community, rather than historic uni-directional command and control methodologies. The paper will look at two key trends currently underway in communicating with communities via traditional and digital media, including social media. The first is the increasing trend by Government towards developing multihazard and multi-agency online portals to make it easier for the public to access vital safety, preparedness, operational and recovery information in an emergency. Such portals also provide a ‘single point of truth’ for information distributed to the media. The second is the seemingly contradictory trend towards engaging with communities using targeted, locally specific or demographically specific information via a range of collaborative communication channels. The paper will look at the characteristics of these trends, what they mean for emergency services, and where technology and research might be taking us into the future.

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The European Union (EU) Civil Protection Mechanism: A possible model for improving the emergency services’ capability

Building bushfire impact analysis in NSW

Development of an automated online system for operational collating and mapping of grassland curing data

Federico Casolari

Bushfire Building Impact Analysis (BIA) has become a core function of NSW Rural Fire Service (NSW RFS) operations. It involves an assessment of the impact of a bushfire on buildings and infrastructure within a community. BIA provides accurate and timely bushfire impact information to a range of key stakeholders including Incident Controllers, State Operations, the Commissioner, the Premier, Government Ministers, government departments, Insurance Council and the media. This information has proven to be invaluable during bushfire events as it offers a sound basis for the planning and execution of recovery operations.

University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy

The cooperation developed at European Union (EU) level in the field of disaster response has led to important results. Several tools have been implemented, which address to both the internal1 and overseas2 emergencies (e.g. the Civil Protection Mechanism, the Humanitarian Aid, the Crisis Management Tool). The Lisbon Treaty (2009) has opened up new opportunities in this domain, introducing into primary law a new ‘clause of solidarity’ (Article 222 TFEU) and specific EU competences in the areas of civil protection (Article 196 TFEU) and humanitarian assistance (Article 214 TFEU).3 As a result, in December 2013 a new Union Civil Protection Mechanism has been adopted, which should facilitate prevention of and preparedness for disasters, as well as the response to disasters and imminent disasters.4 The proposed paper will discuss the main interoperability, organisational issues and challenges emerging from the new Mechanism. Firstly, the analysis will be conducted at EU level, in order to assess the impact of the decision on the actual civil protection cooperation regime. Secondly, the focus will shift on the contribution of the Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) to the capability of Australasian fire and emergencies agencies’ interoperability. In this respect, the paper will consider the concrete impact of the UCPM in light of the 2008 administrative arrangement on cooperation in civil protection concluded between the European Commission and the Attorney General’s Department – Emergency Management Australia, on the one hand. On the other, the contribution of the UCPM to the debate on possible improvements of the interoperability and coordination tools available in the region will be discussed. See Gestri M (2012) EU Disaster Response Law: Principles and Instruments. In: de Guttry et al. (eds) International Disaster Response Law, Springer, The Hague, pp 105-128.

Casolari F (2012) The External Dimension of the EU Disaster Response. In: de Guttry et al. (eds) International Disaster Response Law, Springer, The Hague, pp 129-154.

For a general survey, see Cremona M (2011) The EU and global emergencies: competence and instruments. In: Antoniadis A et al (eds) The European Union and global emergencies. Hart, Oxford, pp 11–31.

Decision No 1313/2013/EU of 17 December 2013, Official Journal of the European Union L 347, p. 924 et seq.

Luke Catorall and Pat Schell

NSW Rural Fire Service, Granville, NSW, Australia

The NSW RFS in collaboration with the CSIRO have developed a tablet based application to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of the BIA data collection process. The application was trialed during the Blue Mountains bushfires of October 2013. These fires resulted in the loss of 210 dwellings and caused damaged to an additional 150 houses. Spatial data on the impact of these bushfires was successfully captured and sent almost instantaneously back to a central sources whilst BIA teams were operating on the fire ground. The speed at which the number and location of affected buildings can be identified using the tablet based application has potential to enhance multi-agency disaster recovery efforts in the future. The application also generates spatial data in a common format that can be readily shared across government departments. This presentation will provide an outline of the evolution of BIA operations in NSW, including the future of BIA operations and expansion of the application to assist with other elements of the disaster recovery. It will then focus on the development of the tablet based application through a partnership between CSIRO and NSW RFS. The presentation will involve a demonstration that provides the audience with an understanding on how the application operates and its capacity to transfer live data to a central source.

Alex Chen, David Nichols, Rachel Bessell, Danielle Martin, Susan Kidnie and Jude Alexander Country Fire Authority, Burwood East, VIC, Australia

In Victoria, the Country Fire Authority (CFA) relies on heavily weekly visual observations on grassland conditions for regular and consistent sampling of curing throughout the fire season. Collected by volunteer observers, weekly visual observations are collated by CFA and are used to produce a statewide map of curing. The traditional way of collating field observation data involves a great amount of manual processing. With a growing number of volunteer observers, however, the process has increasingly become time-consuming, resource-extensive, and vulnerable to inaccuracy, overgeneralisation and human error. CFA established the Grassland Curing and Fire Danger Rating (GCFDR) project to obtain more accurate grassland curing information for increased accuracy of Fire Danger Ratings (FDRs) in grasslands. As part of the main objective of the project, a prototype online system was developed in late 2012 and significantly enhanced in late 2013. It has since been deployed in operations for the 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 fire seasons. The system described in this paper facilitates an automated sequential operational workflow. The system workflow progresses from signing up new observers, to capturing and collating field observations, to running an established curing model through to production, notification and distribution of a final curing product of Victorian grasslands. The grasslands spatial product is accessible to various emergency organisations for decision support. It is also delivered to the Bureau of Meteorology as input into the Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) for Victoria. The GFDI is a significant input into the Victorian FDR system.

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Effectiveness of Fire & Rescue NSW’s Community Fire Units

Occupational stress and healthrelated quality of life in South Australian urban professional firefighters

High-detail fuel moisture content monitoring using the RISERnet sensor network

Samantha Colwell

Fire & Rescue NSW, Harris Park, NSW, Australia

In order to build capability in the bushfire urban interface, Fire & Rescue NSW established a Community Fire Unit (CFU) program 20 years ago following the devastating 1994 bushfires. The program grew rapidly and now has over 600 units and 7000 volunteers across NSW.

Alan J Crockett and Christine Holton

This paper will share the strategies used in building resilience in bushfire prone communities with the provision of firefighting equipment, protective equipment, training and support from a fire service to local residents. The effectiveness of these units will be explored and how they differ to frontline rural volunteer firefighters. There are also several challenges faced by the organisation in managing such a large, diverse volunteer workforce such as an ageing population, providing consistency in training levels and monitoring adherence to organisation policy and procedures.

SA Metropolitan Fire Service, Adelaide, SA

The recent October 2013 bushfires in the Blue Mountains were the biggest test for many CFUs in the area, as well as the overall program management by Fire & Rescue NSW. Many units were heavily impacted and sadly 22 CFU members lost their homes in the fires. However, significant work was done by these volunteers – protecting property, community engagement and recovery activities. The paper will discuss how Fire & Rescue NSW supported these community volunteers during and after the event, the challenges that were faced and the lessons learned. Fire & Rescue NSW has commissioned research by Risk Frontiers through the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC to investigate the operation of CFUs in the Blue Mountains during the recent major fires and some of these findings will also be shared. This will include the activities undertaken by these units and the effectiveness of their training and support.

The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia

Tjard Schermer

Department of Primary & Community Care, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

Michael Morgan

This project aims to describe the perceptions Australian urban professional firefighters have towards their levels of everyday work stress and the types of situations they find most stressful. It also investigates associations between firefighters’ stress levels and healthrelated quality of life. A prospective cohort study of 592 firefighters were surveyed on two occasions. Descriptive statistics were applied to responses to the SF-12 V2 Health Survey and questions about work stress. A linear mixed model tested for association between stress and mental health and qualitative analysis of responses to an open ended question about stressors was also undertaken. The results of the study showed that the mean age of respondents was 44 years and the average length of service 17 years. Nearly 60% rated their job as either “not at all stressful” or “not very stressful”. The most stressful type of callout was to motor vehicle accidents. The most common factors that increased stress were reports of persons injured and dealing with night shifts. The mean score for the mental health component of the SF-12 (MCS12) was 52.5 (SD=7.5). MCS-12 scores decreased as the level of perceived work stress increased (p<0.0001). There was a correlation between work stress and length of employment. From the results it has been concluded that 40% of the firefighters in our sample saw their jobs as stressful. Researches observed a strong association between higher stress levels and poorer mental health and a positive correlation between levels of work stress and years of experience. Identifying firefighters at risk of distress and recognising contributing factors could help minimise negative health consequences associated with job-related stress.

Matt Duckham, Allison Kealy, Azadeh Mousavi, Kevin Tolhurst and Peter Zhong University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia

Sensor networks (wireless networks of sensor-enabled computing devices deployed in the field) can generate highdetail and real-time information about sensitive and changing environments. RISERnet is one such sensor network of almost 100 nodes deployed over a 1km square region of forest in the Dandenong Ranges, Victoria. This network continually monitors a range of environmental parameters, including solar radiation, soil moisture, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction. Based on this data, the RISER research project (resilient information systems for emergency response) is developing the capability to derive estimates of fuel moisture content (FMC) at much finer levels of detail than possible with current technologies. Adapting established models of fuel moisture content (e.g., Matthews, 20061), the project is using the environmental data from the sensor network to compute fuel moisture content over the monitored area with high spatial detail (10s of metres) and temporal detail (variations over the course of hours). The results will be experimentally validated using independent field measurements of fuel moisture. Using new data sources in this way can help to increase the resilience of the information systems for emergency response. Resilient information systems must continue to capture, collate, and communicate timely and relevant information, even in the extreme and unexpected circumstances surrounding an emergency. By diversifying the range of information sources available to decision makers and the level of spatial and temporal detail in those information sources, the ultimate aim is to improve situational awareness of conditions in the forest. Matthews, S. (2006) A process-based model of fine fuel moisture. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 15:155-168.

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Operational readiness of rural firefighters: impact of low sleep and high temperatures

International perspectives on community engagement in the NSW Rural Fire Service

The use of grazing for fuel management in the Australian Capital Territory

Sally A Ferguson

Sunara Fernando

Bushfire CRC

Sunara Fernando has been responsible for the set up and coordination of international emergency operations in response to pandemic influenza, cyclones, conflict, drought, floods, Earthquake and cholera. She has worked in Cambodia, Myanmar, Sudan and Haiti for Oxfam, CARE, UNICEF, World Health Organisation and International Organisation for Migration. Sunara has worked in public health and water, sanitation and hygiene, mitigation, vector and waste control (WASH). Sunara will present her perspectives on operations and community engagement in emergencies in developing countries and the differences and similarities to practices in NSW.

Malcolm Gale, Josh Clancy, Scott Farquhar, Adam Leavesley, Dylan Kendall, Neil Cooper and Bruce Lambie

Appleton Institute - Central Queensland University, Goodwood, SA, Australia

Brad Aisbett

Centre for Physical Activity and Nutrition Research, Deakin University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia Bushfire CRC

The capacity for rural fire agencies to respond during an emergency incident is influenced by the operational readiness of the firefighters. Occupational and environmental challenges, such as high ambient temperatures and restricted sleep opportunities, can impact an individual’s capacity to perform their fireground work tasks effectively, efficiently and safely. The current project examined aspects of firefighter performance under conditions of high ambient temperatures (33 degrees) and sleep opportunities’ of four hours (awake/ hot condition), compared to eight hour sleep opportunities and ambient temperature of 20 degrees (control condition). The aim of the present study was to provide agencies with an evidence-base on which to formulate risk management plans for rural firefighters on deployment. Firefighters in the awake/ hot condition reported higher levels of fatigue, lower levels of alertness and reduced motivation to perform compared to firefighters in the control condition. Reaction times were slower and more lapses in attention occurred in the awake/ hot condition. Physical performance was impacted most severely in tasks that were high intensity (e.g., raking) and frequent (e.g. lateral repositioning). There were no differences in firefighters’ heart rate or perceived exertion levels despite differences in physical performance. The impaired physical work may reflect firefighters’ higher fatigue and diminished motivational levels or a conscious decision to pace their efforts to a set level of exertion. The findings from this work will allow agencies to better understand and predict the degree to which operational readiness may be impaired by certain external factors and thus better manage the health, safety and operational risks.

NSW Rural Fire Service, Lidcombe, NSW, Australia

In international response environments, community engagement does not operate as a separate unit but is part of the minimum standard in operations. Emergency response is measured against international standards for each functional area (including WASH, health, shelter, protection), utilise an all hazards approach and are coordinated by a UN agency. Community engagement is not an add-on but the basic foundation for operations. Whilst there are similar challenges in making action-oriented staff engage with the community in a meaningful and productive way, the success of an international operation is based on outcomes and community engagement is seen as the conduit for achieving outcomes. Loss of life and property is on a large scale, often in isolated areas with poor infrastructure. The community are seen as the first responders and emergency services aim for community self-reliance, build on existing community structures and ideally make themselves redundant. NSW Rural Fire Service (NSW RFS) will incorporate international principles into its community engagement approach, considering concepts such as Do No Harm, harm minimisation, Ottawa Charter, learned helplessness, social marketing, international charters and standards. Community development will also be briefly outlined. Sunara will provide examples of operations in Haiti where communities were engaged and operational outcomes achieved by a combination of functional area coordination, community development, policy-making and staff, institutional and structural capacity building.

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ACT Parks and Conservation Service, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Fuel management is a key component of bushfire planning in the Australian Capital Territory. Grazing is preferentially employed in locations with palatable feed, stockproof fencing, potable water and where it assists in meeting conservation aims. Grazing is not suitable directly adjacent to assets (Inner Asset Protection Zones), in recreation areas or where there are lots of dogs. To achieve best fuel management outcomes from grazing requires knowledge of the grass production rates of the parcels of land to be treated, knowledge of the consumption rates of grazing animals, clearly defined fuel standards and appropriate infrastructure. ACT Parks and Conservation Service uses the Prograze method to assess pastoral productivity and calculate stocking rates. The stock are privately owned and procured under licence. Numbers vary from year to year and throughout the season. The program accommodates this by prioritising hazardous locations and high conservation areas over sites where alternatives can be most easily employed. Stock preferentially graze certain species producing a patchy outcome in large paddocks and where stocking rates are low. Another issue is that stock lose weight as a paddock is eaten down, so owners may wish to move them before the fuel standard is achieved. These problems are resolved by constructing small paddocks close to assets and grazing at high density for short periods. Larger paddocks, more remote to assets, adjoin the series of smaller blocks so that there is always access to feed. A total of 6,500ha consisting of 78 land parcels mainly of resumed grazing land were allocated to the grazing program in 2013-14 and were monitored throughout the fire season. Of these blocks, 75 complied with the appropriate fuel standard. Problems with fences and insufficient stock were the reasons that three units failed the standard. These blocks were mown or burnt to achieve compliance.

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Building resilience through Community Flood Reference Groups Steve Lawrence and Phil Campbell

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Large animal emergency rescue after disasters: Keeping responders and animals safe

Effective wildfire communication in New Zealand: target the audience, tailor the message and tune the method

Anthony Hatch

Fire & Rescue NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Julie Fiedler

SA Horse Federation, Adelaide, SA, Australia

Mary Anne Leighton

Equine Emergency Rescue, Queensland Horse Council, Peak Crossing, QLD, Australia

Christopher B Riley

Institute of Vet, Animal & Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Massey, New Zealand

Kirrilly Thompson

Central Queensland University, Wayville, SA, Australia

Disasters such as floods, fires, earthquakes and cyclones often leave large animals trapped. They frequently become entangled in fencing wire or trapped in mud, trees, swimming pools, sewers and drains. Unsuccessful evacuations can also leave animals trapped in trailer wrecks. Large Animal Emergency Rescue (LAER) is the response phase of a natural or man-made disaster, or accident, where specialised training and equipment are required to rescue a large animal such as a horse, alpaca or cow. Making sure that animal rescue doesn’t jeopardise responders, experts, owners, road users or the public is a central concern of LAER. When an animal is trapped in a hole, by wire, in a road crash or mud – it can easily revert to the inbuilt “fight or flight” responses regardless of the age, training or breed. This applies especially to horses. Without the skills and knowledge associated with LAER techniques, the animal is likely to become more injured during the rescue than the initial accident caused in the first place. Emergency service personnel are also exposed to significant risk without specialist training. LAER is an extremely challenging task requiring innovative solutions actioned through multi-agency collaboration with the involvement of experts such as veterinarians. LAER skill sets involve dynamic risk assessment, incident scene control, communication systems, team skills, safe work practices and animal welfare. These skills have been refined, developed and taught in the UK and USA over the past 20 years. They are emerging in Australia in relation to Australian conditions. This poster explains how training in skills, procedures and team work reduces risks. It highlights the ways in which most existing equipment on response vehicles can be adapted to meet the majority of large animal rescue scenarios.

(Lisa) E.R. Langer

Scion, Christchurch, New Zealand

Mary Hart

Validatus Research Ltd, Christchurch, New Zealand

Effective communication is the key to minimising human-caused fires and hence the impact wildfires hold for New Zealand communities. It is essential that fire agencies target their audience, messages and methods of communication to be most effective. Scion has analysed communication strategies within three New Zealand rural and rural-urban interface communities as part of the Bushfire CRC’s Effective Communication: Communities and Bushfire project. This research has shown that a simple one-size-fits-all approach is not effective in communicating fire messages. Communication must target both the audience (type of fire user), and the message (awareness, information, fire prevention, preparedness). Most New Zealanders do not use fire or pose any risk of starting a fire; hence communication with this group needs to focus on increasing levels of awareness and preparedness should a wildfire occur. The largest group of fire users are those who light fires for vegetation clearance on their rural and semi-rural properties. They generally have good levels of awareness and knowledge around fire practice, which they term ‘common sense’, and primarily want information around fire restrictions. However, they need to be kept aware of fire risk, prevention and preparedness. Recreational users of fire, such as those lighting campfires and using fireworks, tend to be visitors to rural areas and pose considerable risk as they often lack awareness or knowledge. Often currently overlooked, this group require tailored communication concentrating on awareness and fire prevention. The research has shown that fire agencies should carefully consider their method of communication, and that there is a place for both traditional broadcast approaches (one-way communication), and face-toface communication which allows some two-way dialogue. It is important that fire agencies pay attention to the best type of communication for the messages they are trying to convey to different audiences.

Building Resilience - Community Flood Reference Groups

A range of community engagement strategies were undertaken with communities most affected by major flooding on the Mid North Coast of NSW during June 2011. Two public forums attracted a total of 84 community members in the Lower Macleay (east of Kempsey) and Manning Point (east of Taree) areas. These forums were aimed at capturing community perceptions of the event including the identification of effective components and potential improvements to both agency and community flood response. The forums were also focused on exploring partnership opportunities between the NSW SES and the local communities in an effort to increase community preparedness. The Community Flood Reference Groups (CFRGs) were developed as a result of the recommendations made at these post flood forums. The aim of these Groups is to develop and implement community owned engagement activities, influence emergency management planning and function operationally as a network for the dissemination of preparedness and response information. The CFRGs have helped to start an ongoing conversation between the NSW SES Mid North Coast Region and the local communities. These groups have implemented a range of initiatives with the support of the local SES. Activities include doorknocking high risk areas with FloodSafe information, identification of support mechanisms and people for vulnerable community members and a sandbagging exercise where community members learnt how to fill sandbags and construct a sandbag wall. The CFRGs have also been critical to the public information function in the operational context. The Groups have distributed information and messages directly to community hubs, fed flood and community intelligence back into the SES and contributed valuable community feedback to the After Action Review process following more recent flooding. This partnership approach emphasises the importance of shared responsibility and the potential to improve emergency management outcomes by enhancing both community resilience and emergency service planning.

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The new Sentinel hotspots monitoring system – Continuing to assist capability building

Combination of satellite data and ground-based observations for curing assessment

Andreia Dr Siqueira, Adam Dr Lewis Simon and Mr Oldfield

Danielle Martin, David Nichols, Rachel Bessell, Alex Chen, Susan Kidnie and Jude Alexander

Integration of fire behaviour analysis into operational systems – A case study October 2013 fires

A key lesson learnt from the fire management community is that the earlier an appropriate fire response can be mounted the better; resulting in significant community benefits. However, it can be hard to monitor a country as large as Australia and to detect fires, particularly in vast and remote areas where fire ground intelligence is not easily available.

In Australia, the Grassland Fire Danger Index is determined by a number of inputs including an essential component, the degree of grassland curing (senescence). In Victoria, techniques used for curing assessment have varied over the years from the use of ground-based visual observations to the use of satellite imagery.

Geoscience Australia, Symonston, ACT, Australia

The Sentinel monitoring system provides an important and consistent overview for management of fires across the country. The system was developed in the mid-2000’s through a collaborative effort between Geoscience Australia, AGO and CSIRO Land and Water. The system monitors hotspots nationally and provides timely hotspots information to its end-users. Sentinel has been a valuable input into the tools used by government and private agencies managing fires in Australia. A number of land management and emergency response agencies have taken data feeds from the Sentinel system to embed into their routine fire management operations, enhancing their situational awareness programs to assist staff, managers and the community. Hotspot data when merged with other spatial information provide a strategic picture to land managers; which allows them to understand the implications of a particular fire as well as to target resources. GA has completed a re-development of Sentinel, from the infrastructure that supports the system through to the spatial technology and user-interface. These changes will allow GA to more easily integrate data from different platforms and sources as well as provide additional products through the Sentinel interface. The new Sentinel was developed in consultation with stakeholders to ensure a close alignment between end-users needs and the services provided. The main areas improved in the new Sentinel were: Implementation of a robust and maintainable ‘backend’ system, enabling quick and easy ingestion of new sources of hotspot data and fire related products; Improved user interface for the visualisation and download of current and archived hotspots data; Separate access for emergency management users to ensure reliable access to hotspots data during a disaster event; Improved interoperability, through reconsideration of the attributes used to describe a hotspot, anticipating the need for a standard approach to this problem.

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Country Fire Authority, Burwood East, VIC, Australia

Both techniques alone have inherent limitations. Ground-based observations are limited in their accuracy and in their spatial coverage and temporal frequency. Satellite imagery may exhibit inaccuracies caused by cloud cover or by land-cover attributes such as water-bodies, forests, and even secondary growth in grasslands. This paper presents the development of an improved technique for estimating the degree of curing that entails the use of satellite observations adjusted by observations from the ground. First, a satellite model was derived, named MapVictoria, based on historical satellite and ground-based observations. Then, with use of the new satellite model, an integrated model was developed, named the Victorian Improved Satellite Curing Algorithm (VISCA), combining near real-time satellite data with weekly observations of curing from the ground. At the beginning of the 2013/2014 fire season, the integrated model was deployed in operations for accurate fire danger calculations of grasslands in Victoria.

Laurence McCoy

NSW Rural Fire Service, Granville, NSW, Australia

Following the recommendations of the 2009 Victorian Bush Fires Royal Commission, the NSW Rural Fire Service commenced a National Disaster Resilience Project to establish a full time fire behaviour analysis capability. October 2013 saw significant fire activity in NSW, particularly in the Blue Mountains region, where three fires threatened to join with significant potential to impact upon thousands of Blue Mountains residents. A specialist inter-agency and interstate Fire Behaviour Analysis Team was assembled to prepare predictions specifically for this event. This presentation discusses how fire behaviour analysis has been structured in NSW and capacity was escalated during the NSW October 2013 fires. It also explores the information produced, how it was used to inform community messaging during the Blue Mountains event in October 2013 and lessons learnt.

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Fire Weather Portal Project and the impact of spatial weather on the NSW Rural Fire Service

Defining emergency risk and building disaster resilience for communities

Operational understanding of extreme fires

Laurence McCoy

Ben McFadgen

ACT Emergency Services Agency, Canberra, ACT, Australia

By displaying weather data spatially, the Fire Weather Forecast Explorer (FWFE) revolutionised the way fire fighting agencies in NSW viewed fire weather forecasts. The spatial display of weather forecasts was able to provide greater resolution to fire weather in the landscape and facilitated more accurate forecasting of fire danger across the state.

This presentation covers the journey that the Victorian State Emergency Service (VICSES) has undertaken as part of the Fire Services Reform agenda to identify, understand and define where inherent risk management ends and emergency risk management begins in the context of a disaster.

NSW Rural Fire Service, Granville, NSW, Australia

In April 2013, the existing FWFE hosted by the Bureau of Meteorology ceased operation. In response, the NSW Rural Fire Service (NSW RFS) collaborated with NSW National Parks, Forestry Corporation, Fire & Rescue NSW and ACT Rural Fire Service to create the Fire Weather Portal. The NSW and ACT Fire Weather Portal improved on the FWFE by creating a modularised system to provide specific fire weather services to NSW and ACT fire fighting agencies. The Portal not only has the ability to display forecasts, but also incorporates fire weather observations and specific fire weather products tailored to meet the needs for NSW and ACT firefighting agencies. The Portal has the ability to be tailored to incorporate data for other states and territories. This presentation discusses the Portal and the impact that spatial weather has had on the NSW RFS. A visual demonstration of the Fire Weather Portal will also be provided.

Victoria State Emergency Service, Southbank, VIC, Australia

Regardless of how emergency risk is defined, the focus for effective emergency risk management must be to reduce or lessen a riskâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s impact â&#x20AC;&#x201C; should it eventuate. Or reduce the probability of the manifestation of that risk occurring â&#x20AC;&#x201C; should that be an option. An effective emergency risk management framework therefore relies on the fact that actions taken to reduce inherent risk need to be known and understood at the time assessments of the potential impacts of emergency risk are conducted. In the case of a natural-hazard risk, whilst there may be no action that will necessarily reduce the probability of an event occurring, there may be opportunities to lessen the consequences on a community should an emergency event occur. During the course of this project VICSES carefully examined the inherent and residual risks associated with a hazard (natural or other), hazard impacts and consequences, community disaster resilience and the dynamics of changing risk profiles.

Rick McRae

Jason Sharples

University of NSW, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Australia and other countries are increasingly being affected by extreme or blow-up fire events. Much effort is being expended on developing or improving techniques to forecast and describe these fires and their astonishing dynamics. When a wildfire blows-up, it becomes hazardous to approach anywhere near to collect data. The best ways to understand its dynamics are (i) familiarity with latest knowledge of this phenomenon, and (ii) interpretation of a combination of a number of sources of remotely-sensed data. While many of these are widely available to Incident Management Teams, some are not widely enough understood. Each data type has its issues, which need to be known if the full value of the data is to be achieved. The most important sources are weather satellites, weather radar and other specialised satellites. It is important that our industry makes full value of these sources, and understands future opportunities. They can then be used to develop robust intelligence products, and can help ensure the safety of fire crews and the public. They are vital for post-analysis and learning lessons.

The lessons learned from the journey are now being used to inform the way the VICSES communicates with communities about their risk profile and the consequences for a community if an event occurs that manifests an identified risk. This in turn, allows municipalities and communities to plan for the management of those risks and their consequences.

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Understanding the implications of the hazard and operating environment: An intelligence capability for emergency management decision-Makers

Improvements to grassland curing and Fire Danger Ratings in Victoria

Automated sensing systems for ground-based monitoring of grassland curing

Rachel Bessell, David Nichols, Danielle Martin, Susan Kidnie, Alex Chen and Jude Alexander

David Nichols, Jude Alexander, Danielle Martin, Rachel Bessell, Susan Kidnie and Alex Chen

The aim of the Grassland Curing and Fire Danger Rating project (GCFDR) was to produce an automated system that determines accurate grassland curing in Victoria to support fire danger calculations by 2014.

Glenn Newnham

Peter Murphy

Noetic Solutions, Deakin, ACT, Australia

Over the past decade, numerous postincident enquiries have recommended better use or handling of intelligence in emergency management. Hence, the recognition of intelligence as a discrete function in the Incident Management structure is a significant and positive innovation in the fourth edition of the Australian Inter-Service Incident Management System. However, for the emergency management community to gain full value from an intelligence function, there needs to be an unambiguous understanding of what “intelligence” is, how it differs from planning and how it contributes to supporting decision makers in emergency management. This paper contends that an intelligence function in emergency management needs to be clearly focused on advising decision-makers about current and future hazards1 and the implications of and for the operating environment2. This is the single unifying idea around which an intelligence capability is built and all other “intelligence” activity is contextualised. Note that this is not just about intelligence in the response phase. In the prevention and preparation phases, the intelligence function should drive proactive community engagement; both to build human information networks and to directly support community resilience measures. Good intelligence will also assist the recovery phase. This paper will use lessons learnt examples to illustrate the key points. ‘Hazard’ in this context refers to an occurrence that is causing, or may potentially cause, harm to the community. Specific types of hazard may be natural (including earthquake, flood, wildfire, cyclone, storms, disease epidemic and insect/animal plagues) or manmade (including industrial accidents and transport accidents).

The term ‘operating environment’ encompasses all factors external to the emergency services (other than the hazard itself) that impact on emergency management. These include: the population, terrain, climate and infrastructure.

Country Fire Authority, Burwood East, VIC, Australia

The GCFDR project commenced in late 2010, in response to the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission. The 2009 Commission Interim Report identified the need for AFAC (and affiliated agencies) and the Bureau of Meteorology to collaborate with researchers to explore options for the fire danger indices and fire danger ratings. Country Fire Authority (CFA) has taken the lead in implementing this recommendation. The major objectives are: • Expanding the existing network of grassland curing observers and providing them with training products including: an online training course, a photo reference field card and field guide; • Developing an improved technique for estimating the degree of curing by utilising satellite observations adjusted by observations from the ground – named the Victorian Improved Satellite Curing Algorithm (VISCA); • Developing an automated online system for operational collating and mapping of grassland curing data; A joint research project conducted by CFA and CSIRO to empirically test the relationship between grassland curing and fire behaviour: namely what critical curing thresholds are required for sustained fire propagation, the associated rate of fire spread and the expected fire behaviour at different curing levels throughout the fire season. Meeting these objectives will provide Victoria with a technologically advanced operational system that will exceed the outcomes requested through the Royal Commission Interim Report.

Country Fire Authority, Burwood East, VIC, Australia

CSIRO Land & Water, Clayton South, Victoria

Darius Culvenor

Environmental Sensing Systems, Bentleigh East, Victoria

The process of grassland curing can significantly impact the likelihood of ignition and the rate of spread of a grass fire. The degree of curing, expressed as a percentage by weight, is one of the key inputs to fire spread models and fire danger rating systems such as the McArthur (1977) Grassland Fire Danger Meter. Many jurisdictions have relied on visual estimates of curing percentage, typically provided by regional volunteers, as an efficient alternative to weight based estimates of curing. Currently the Country Fire Authority (CFA) publishes detailed state-wide curing maps using satellite imagery and data provided by volunteers who regularly report visual estimates of curing (Martin et al., 2014). The map is used to predict the progression of high fire danger conditions across the state. However, visual curing estimates are subjective and accuracy depends on the experience of the volunteer. There are also many regions where regular assessment and reporting of curing levels are more difficult. The CFA, CSIRO and Environmental Sensing Systems are currently testing a number of ground-based sensing technologies for objective and automated recording of curing levels. These sensing systems have been installed at a test site in Victoria and have been recording and wirelessly transmitting data since the latter half of the 2013-2014 fire season. This poster will provide an overview of the sensing systems being trialled by the team and provide preliminary results showing the relationship between weight based measurements of curing, estimates based on visual observations and those derived from the automated sensor systems. Garvey, M. 1992. Grassland curing guide, Country Fire Authority of Victoria, Lakeside Drive, Burwood East, Victoria, 3151, Australia Martin, D., Chen, A., Nichols, D., Bessell, R., Kidnie, S., Alexander, J. 2014. VISCA: The Victorian Improved Satellite Curing Algorithm, International Journal of Wildland Fire, submitted March 2014. McArthur, A.G. 1977. Grassland fire danger meter Mk V. Country Fire Authority of Victoria, Melbourne (published as a linear slide rule).

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Design of an operational system for mapping grassland curing in New Zealand

Cooling firefighters using practical methods – What works well in hot and humid environments?

A fire and emergency services capability framework

Veronica R. Clifford and H. Grant Pearce

Scion Research, Christchurch, New Zealand

Glenn J. Newnham

CSIRO Land & Water, Clayton South, VIC, Australia

Ian F. Grant

Bureau of Meterology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Stuart A.J. Anderson

Ministry for Primary Industries, Rotorua, New Zealand

The degree of grassland curing (proportion of dead material) is an important input to fire danger rating systems in Australia and New Zealand. The past five years has seen significant progress in satellite based mapping of grassland curing, with routine mapping being adopted as an operational information source by the Country Fire Authority and NSW Rural Fire Service. Studies have shown that the grassland curing maps used in Australia struggle to accurately characterise curing in New Zealand because of differences in vegetation types and the greater degree of landscape fragmentation. Scion, in collaboration with the CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is currently developing a system for operational mapping of grassland curing to be integrated into New Zealand’s new Fire Weather Monitoring System. The new system will utilise a combination of high resolution satellite data and modified algorithms to achieve higher curing accuracy estimation. The new curing maps will be produced in New Zealand at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and integrated into their new Fire Weather Monitoring System. The new mapping algorithms will be presented along with a comparison of curing estimation accuracy relative to existing Australian algorithms.

Robbie Savage

Human Performance Science, South Yarra, VIC, Australia

Peter Langridge and Teagan Knight Country Fire Authority, Burwood East, VIC, Australia

Brad Aisbett

Deakin University, Burwood, VIC, Australia

We know that in sporting and occupational environments, whole body water immersion (WBI) is the most effective means of reducing core temperature following strenuous activity. However as a means of cooling firefighters on the fire ground, this method is timely, costly and often impractical. This study investigated alternative means of reducing core temperature, in comparison to WBI, in hot and humid environmental conditions. Twelve male and female firefighters (height 1.78 ± 0.04 m, weight 83.4 ± 7.64 kg, age 26.4 ± 2.36 yrs) performed a 20-minute fire suppression task followed by 20 minutes of active or passive cooling. In addition to WBI, cooling mechanisms included; hand and forearm immersion (HFI), forearm coverage with wet towels (WT) and shade (S). Temperature and relative humidity in the rehabilitation area ranged between 33.3 - 36.9˚C and 33 61% respectively and all rehabilitation water was temperate (23.4 - 28.8˚C). The study found core temperatures (TC) were significantly higher at the end of the 20-minute fire suppression task (average TC = 38.4 ± 0.34˚C, peak TC = 39.1˚C) compared to resting levels. Reductions in core temperature were observed in all four cooling mechanisms with the most-to-least effective mechanism listed as follows: WBI –> TC = -1.23 ± 0.50˚C, p<0.05; HFI–> TC = -1.00 ± 0.42, p<0.05; S–> TC = -0.78 ± 0.37˚C, p<0.05; WT–> TC = -0.29 ± 0.34˚C, p<0.05. No statistical differences were detected between core temperature reductions in the WBI and HFI conditions, whereas as the WT and S conditions were significantly different to WBI. The answer to the study title – submersing your hands and forearms in water. This cooling technique yielded similar results to the gold standard, whole body immersion. If water immersion baths are not available or suitable in firefighting field operations, hand and forearm water immersion represents a practical means of reducing core temperature in hot and humid conditions.

Daniel Spencer

Aerospace Concepts, Port Adelaide, SA, Australia

Increasing complexity in the fire and emergency service domain are driving the need for more sophisticated approaches to address its challenges. Aerospace Concepts, with the Government of Western Australia’s Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES), have taken an innovative approach to understanding a whole-of-system view of DFES capability. The capability framework takes a comprehensive view when considering decisions, moving from an asset-based to effects-based analysis of capability. In the simplest terms, capability for the department is the ability to deliver effective fire and emergency services. Each capability involves the department’s assets, its people (including their individual skills and competencies), established organisational knowledge, information and communication technologies, and overarching governance and accountability. With a background in systems engineering and the defence and aerospace industries, this approach benefits from: • A structured analysis and modelling tool which provides an enduring database and visual representation of data; • Scenario analysis to explore operations and discover user and stakeholder needs; • Structured methods to compare and evaluate which solution options best meet those needs; • Interfaces to project management for projects needed to deliver capability change; and • Full traceability for decisions made. Implementing this capability framework in DFES is expected to benefit effectiveness of service, efficiency of resources and buy-in from stakeholders at a local and political level. This poster describes the developed framework, showing how the elements of an integrated system, processes, structure and language combine to improve service delivery.

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Emergency services reporting on extraordinary events

Two years after the 2011 ‘summer of disasters’... how has the use of social media in disasters changed?

An untapped resource: Archetypes of the human-animal bond to increase the disaster resilience of animal owners and responders

Selena Stanley

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) involvement in ‘extraordinary events’ such as severe weather and wildfire has become more prominent in recent years. With extensive flooding over the last three years and campaign bushfires becoming a regular occurrence, our responses to these events have increased. The impact of these types of events on emergency services organisations has been understated, as at the end of the event there is little hard evidence of the effort of the people and the organisation. Hard evidence requires hard data. Systems and processes are in place to capture the extent of ‘business as usual’ responses and this is usually done well. However, when these ‘out of the ordinary’ events occur the current systems and processes are left by the wayside and we end up in an information black hole. This was Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) experience during the Queensland Floods in 2010/11. Consequently a small team of people undertook a review of data capture and reporting for extraordinary events. This has taken us on a journey into the depths of our operational data capture systems to find a way to better utilise this data in order to produce the required information. New processes have been developed to leverage off of our existing systems and have provided an improvement in reporting on incidents, activities, time and people. These processes continue to be refined and tested during large scale responses. Come share the journey of a small but dedicated group of people committed to finding a solution to the issues involved with reporting on extraordinary events.

Melanie Taylor and Gwyneth Howell University of Western Sydney, Penrith, NSW, Australia

Joshua Trigg

In 2011 Queensland experienced a summer of disasters; Cyclone Yasi, widespread flooding in Central Queensland, flash flooding in Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley, and extensive flooding in many Brisbane suburbs. This period also witnessed a massive rise in the public’s use of social media in disasters, as people turned to their smart phones to search for information and to make contact with family and friends. Many official organisations, e.g. emergency services, councils, and government agencies, scrambled to meet the public’s demand for near-immediate information and twoway engagement. During this time one organisation, Queensland Police Service (QPS), demonstrated highly effective and well-supported social media engagement, for which it was recognised internationally, but at this time it was an exception.

Kirrilly Thompson

In May 2011 we undertook a survey to examine the use of social media in these recent disasters; where people went for information, what they were doing on social media, and how they integrated official and community-generated social media information. In addition, we investigated and reported on the role of social media as a form of psychological first aid and as a tool in resilience building (Taylor et al, 2012), noting how people were able to gain relevant information, feel safer and more connected, help others, and build local networks. Two years after the first study, and following storms and further flooding in the Bundaberg/Burnett area, and across south east Queensland, we repeated and extended the earlier survey to investigate differences in how social media was being used and whether people felt official agencies’ use of social media had improved. Had reliance on official sources of social media shifted in favour of communitygenerated sources, and were the positive, resilience-enhancing aspects still evident? This poster will address these questions. Taylor M, Wells G, Howell G, Raphael B. (2012) The role of social media as psychological first aid as a support to community resilience building: a Facebook case study from ‘Cyclone Yasi Update’ The Australian Journal of Emergency Management, Volume 27 No 1 pp 20-26

LaTrobe University, Bendigo, VIC, Australia Central Queensland University Appleton Institute, Wayville, SA, Australia

Pet ownership has been associated with increased vulnerability to natural hazards. Owners’ willingness to take risks to protect their pets can result in evacuation failure or unsuccessful co-evacuation. This behaviour has been explained as a result of a strong human-animal bond (or ‘attachment’). Given high levels of pet ownership in Australia, Thompson1 proposes that this bond could be reconfigured from a risk factor to a protective factor. She suggests that bond-centered communications in disaster resilience campaigns would highly resonate with the 63% of Australians who own pets. Countering current research, which is restricted to companion animals in urban locations, Thompson notes that such strategies would need to be dimensionalised according to type of animal (pet, livestock, wildlife), location (urban, peri-urban, rural) and type of disaster (fire, flood). However, these dimensions are not mutually exclusive. Attempting to develop campaigns which address all of these dimensions could result in information flooding. This presentation attempts to refine the application of Thompson’s proposition in a way that is easily and effectively deployed. Specifically, it recommends that information campaigns would be more effective, and ecologically valid, if segmented not by the types of animals, or where they are kept, but by the strength and nature of human-animal attachment dimensions. Psychometric assessment of multiple theory-based dimensions of this bond can be used to develop archetypes of animal owners according to the strength and nature of their human-animal attachment and associated risk propensities. Disaster-resilience communication initiatives could then be tailored according to these. This could benefit emergency responders by providing recognisable ‘types’ of vulnerable animal guardians that they can immediately associate with communication strategies to support responders’ objectives. Motivating the disaster preparedness of pet owners through their animal attachment – operationalised through archetypes – has the potential to increase disaster resilience and survival of pet owners, emergency services personnel, and animals. Thompson, K. (2013). Save me, save my dog: Increasing natural disaster preparedness and survival by addressing human-animal relationships. Australian Journal of Communication, 40(1), 123136. Retrieved from http://search.informit.com.au/ documentSummary;dn=436200413169338; res=IELHSS

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Iced slush and cold-water immersion are effective at rapidly reducing core temperatures of urban firefighters following emergency response

Ageing firefighters may impair the quality of emergency responses

Meteorological and fire behavioural lessons learned from the Aberfeldy Fire, Victoria, 17 January 2013

Anthony Walker

UC National Institute of Sport Studies, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australia

Tim Wells

UC National Institute of Sport Studies, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australia

ACT Fire & Rescue, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Claire S Yeo

ACT Fire & Rescue, Canberra, ACT, Australia

UC National Institute of Sport Studies, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australia

Anthony Walker

Ben Rattray

UC National Institute of Sport Studies, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australia

Matthew Driller

Department of Sport and Leisure Studies, University of Waikato, Tauranga, New Zealand

Matt Brearley

National Critical Care and Trauma Response Centre, Darwin, NT, Australia

Christos Argus

Department of Physiology, Australian Institute of Sport, Canberra, Australia

Rapidly cooling the core temperature of firefighters following responses in the heat is crucial in maintaining the operational capability of emergency services. High core temperatures increase fatigue, likely leading to an inability to safely complete work tasks in the heat. It is therefore important that emergency services employ effective post-incident cooling practices that rapidly reduce the core temperatures of workers to allow them to complete subsequent emergency tasks. The current study involved 74 firefighters and compared iced slush ingestion (SLUSH) (7 g.kg.BW-1) and cold-water immersion (CWI) (15 °C) to the current recovery practice involving only drinking water and seated rest in the shade (19.7 ± 2.3 °C) following a simulated firefighting task in a heated chamber (105 ± 5 °C). Informed written consent was obtained from all participants prior to undertaking testing based on protocols approved by the University of Canberra Human Ethics Research Committee. The work task consisted of two 20-minute search periods separated by a 10-minute intermediate rest followed by a 15-minute cooling period. Core temperatures were measured using ingestible thermometers (HQ Inc), and rose from 37.5 ± 0.4 °C to 38.9 ± 0.5 °C at the end of the work period. At the conclusion of the 15 minute cooling period, core temperatures were reduced by 1.3 °C in the iced slush group and 1.4 °C and the CWI group, respectively. However, the passive group demonstrated a drop in core temperature of just 0.8 °C which leaves firefighters in excess of ISO and NFPA standards for safe entry to fire scenes (38.0 °C). Rapidly cooling firefighters allows for them to safely re-enter scenes or be redeployed in a physical state that will likely increase their effectiveness and safety. In order to maintain effective emergency response during long duration events, including natural disasters, emergency services need to minimise fatigue in workers. The cooling methods validated in this study, and widely used in athletic populations, can be easily employed to achieve the goal of sustained emergency response.

Julie Cooke and Ben Rattray Matthew Driller

Department of Sport and Leisure Studies, University of Waikato, Tauranga, New Zealand

Christos Argus

Department of Physiology, Australian Institute of Sport, Canberra, Australia

An increase in retirement ages sees growing numbers of older firefighters responding to emergency incidents in Australasia. The mean age at ACT Fire & Rescue is currently 43 years 11 months. Poor fitness and inappropriate body composition are linked to cardiac events in firefighters worldwide, likely due to the high intensity, intermittent nature of emergency responses in the heat. The impacts of ageing on this population are not well understood in an Australian context. This study investigated the impacts of ageing on fitness and body composition variables of 73 operational urban firefighters (mean ± SD age 38.9 ± 9.0 years, 180.8 ± 6.6 cm and 84.2 ± 9.2 kg). Fitness was assessed using the Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test, as well as grip strength and power testing based on recruitment protocols used by ACT Fire & Rescue. Body composition was assessed using Dual-Energy X-Ray analysis conducted at the University of Canberra. The present fire service, like most other services in Australasia, does not currently employ a health and wellbeing program for firefighters. We observed significant declines by 10-year age groups in predicted aerobic capacity (p<0.001), strength (p=0.001) and power (p<0.001). Changes in body composition included increasing body fat and decreasing lean muscle mass along with increasing waist circumference. However, no differences in body mass index (BMI) were observed. BMI is a standard generally used when studying the health status of workers and findings from this study suggest that BMI may be inappropriate for assessing body composition in this population.

Country Fire Authority, Melbourne Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC, Australia

Robert J B Fawcett2 3

Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC, Australia Bushfire CRC, Melbourne

Rapid fire spread occurred unexpectedly near Aberfeldy in eastern Victoria on the evening of 17 January 2013, threatening to impact the catchment of Lake Thomson, Melbourne’s largest water supply. The fire is believed to have begun around 11:30am, in the first 16 hours it spread 30 km to the southeast and burned 20,000 ha. It was then impacted by a south-westerly wind change and burned a further 25,000ha in only eight hours. This investigation aims to identify meteorological factors that may have contributed to the fire prediction modelling under-predicting rapid spread, to document situations in which fire prediction models might be vulnerable to unusually large errors. Fire agencies will benefit from working closely with the Bureau of Meteorology in their efforts to predict bushfire behaviour. This case study shows how post-incident meteorological and fire behaviour analysis can improve our ability to predict and respond to bushfires. By working together, our collective predictive capability will be improved, which will result in better messaging and warning by fire authorities. The investigation will explore highresolution numerical weather prediction simulations, using the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) and observational data such as radar imagery. The use of radar imagery to assist in analysing fire behaviour, and in particular radar interpretation of smoke plumes, is an area of study for further development.

The negative effects of ageing on body composition and fitness of firefighters is likely impacting on the operational safety and effectiveness of fire services. Further, sedentary work practices and the lack of cohesive fitness programs across Australian fire services are likely exacerbating the declines observed in the present study. Thus, we recommend that fire services employ health and wellbeing programs to ameliorate the significant age-related declines currently occurring in Australian firefighters.

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Poster Abstracts continued 139

140

141

Introducing a new technical specialist capability: lessons from developing the Fire Behaviour Analysis role

Learn from adversity? It happens – Just get over it! Christine Owen

Fire Danger Indices: Identifying current FDI limitations to a pathway to an idealised index

Tim Wells

Sandra Whight and Jeremy J Smith

See Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC poster list

Country Fire Authority, Mount Waverley, VIC, Australia

Kelsy Gibos

Alberta Environment & Sustainable Resource Development, Alberta, Canada

Emergency management agencies are continually under pressure to do more with less and are subjected to increasing scrutiny. To help meet these demands several Victorians started building a Fire Behaviour Analyst capability in 2006. Based on a combination of personal bushfire experience and knowledge of academically reviewed scientific principles, Fire Behaviour Analysts (FBANs) provide advice to fire managers before and during emergencies. The FBAN role has been used widely in North America for many years, but was not formally used in Australia before 2006. In Victoria the program developed rapidly and produced a cadre of highly skilled analysts whose products and services have become integrated into everyday bushfire management, especially quantifying risk to communities and infrastructure. Many examples of the positive impact of fire behaviour prediction have been recorded. So how has this new capability evolved so quickly? This paper presents a history of the Victorian Fire Behaviour Analyst program. It outlines how just a few individuals developed a new service that has helped fire agencies become more efficient and accountable. Some of the lessons learnt relate to: • Training and mentoring personnel • Developing standards • Working in a multi-agency environment • Balancing information needs at state, regional and local (incident) level • Developing tools and systems • Establishing networks with inter-state and international agencies • Developing new capability in a financially constrained environment. Some of the pressures faced include: • Changing climate • Increasing demand for planned burning • Increasing demand for public warnings • Increasing population • Increasing workforce specialisation. The evolution of fire behaviour prediction tools and services in Victoria provides an interesting account of lessons learnt, success stories and rapid innovation in response to increasing demand in the emergency sector for more consistent, accurate, reliable and defendable decisions during emergencies.

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Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, Hobart Tasmania Fire Service, Hobart, TAS, Australia

People in emergency services organisations face adversity all the time – it comes with the territory. However, the consequences can be devastating on both people and organisations, burning people out and sustaining toxic cultures. In extraordinary events, to simply point people in the direction of the traditional counselling service is not a sufficient or acceptable response. Whilst firefighters were still on the ground in Dunalley, senior staff within the Tasmania Fire Service recognised the significance of the out-of-scale event, and wanted to both learn from adversity and ensure those involved were cared for appropriately. It was decided that a field ride (aka staff ride but renamed acknowledging organisation diversity) would be one way to try and understand what happened and how decisions were made. The Inala Road field ride had three purposes: (i) to help the people involved come to grips with what happened; (ii) to assist others to learn from their experiences of an out-of-scale event and (iii) to assist the organisations to continue to build a learning culture which included reviewing practices that might need to change. Staff rides are not a new concept; they are a well established training and leadership development tool. However, the Inala Road field ride demonstrates how the opportunity to “tell-stories” allows both individuals and organisations to move on from nearmisses and provide opportunities for others (including whole agencies) to learn. The presentation will discuss the contextual background features necessary to support success, as well as some of the potential danger points that would need to be mitigated. The tensions that inhibit learning from adversity will also be discussed, and how we need to continue to care for each other long after the excitement has gone.

142 Safety through leadership Gary Zuiderwyk

NSW State Emergency Service, Wollongong, NSW, Australia

Effective safety leadership in emergency services is a key item in your tool box to develop and maintain a culture in which safety is integrated in everything we do. It is our belief that safety is part of who we are and how we behave both at work and at home. Having a positive safety culture is more than rules and regulations. In building a safety culture within the NSW State Emergency Service the commitment started with our Commissioner. His commitment, supported by the Executive, is working towards an environment in which we actively demonstrate safe behaviours both at home and at work. A key phrase in the service is ‘safety is the unbreakable law’. Key initiatives: • Consultative arrangements • All safety reports are reviewed • Serious incidents are investigated • Corrective actions are recorded and tracked towards completion • A 1800 number to enable 24/7 reporting • Regular safety communications • Lessons learned shared across the service • Safety is the first item in any meeting agenda Our safety culture is developing through supporting our safety leaders across the organisation. We acknowledge that any member can be a safety leader. Whilst we have started with the Executive with education, the safety leadership program (facilitated by DuPont Australia) will roll out across the organisation. This proactive work has been proven to make significant inroads on the human and financial cost to our Service. Despite having some of our busiest periods on record, our injury frequency rate continues to trend downwards. Encouraging members to: • Follow their training • Say no when the risk outweighs the benefit • Report hazards, incidents and near hits • Look out for each other Following this path the Service has made significant safety improvements. Our vision is to create an environment of continuous improvement in a just culture.

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Abstract Index by Author A Ackland, A 66 Aho, L 81 Aisbett, B 58,113,131 Aldridge, E 31 Alexander, J 100,109,122, 128,129 Alisic, E 18 Anderson, S.A 130 Andreou, A 101 Andrews, F 82 Andrews, L 55 Ardagh, M 31 Argus, C 136,137 Ashe, B 48

B Bally, J 3 Barnes, P 16 Bearman, C 15 Bertram, C 102 Bessell, R 30,100,109, 122,128,129 Bhattacharya, P 20 Bishop, S 45 Bissel, R 31 Blackett, A 66 Blake, A 37,81 Boissonneault, P 38 Brearley, M 5,104,136 Brennan, G 105 Brockie, L 72 Brooks, B 15 Brown, K 64 Brown, M 52 Brown, T 63 Buckman, W 47 Buffone, J 39 Burns, P 25

C Campbell, A 6 Campbell, P 106,120 Carey-Smith, T 45 Casolari, F 107 Catorall, L 108 Chen, A 100,109,122, 128,129 Chung, D 22 Clancy, J 115 Clark, A 80 Clifford, V.R 130 Coates, L 9 Colwell, S 110 Cooke, J 137 Cooper, N 56,115

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

Corrigan, T 56 Cousins, J 31 Crockett, A.J 111 Crompton, R 9 Cruz, M 30 Culvenor, D 129

D Dandy, G.C 19 Davie, S 18 Deely, J 31 Dharssi, I 12 Dicker, I 46 Dimer de Oliveira, F 48 Dovers, S 11 Driller, M 136,137 Duckham, M 112

E Eburn, M 50 Ellis, S 43 Eustace, G 25 Evans, J 21 Every, D 7

H Hamilton, J 35 Handmer, J 18,23 Hanslow, D 82 Harbour, T 33 Hart, M 119 Hartog, D 116 Hastings, P 26 Hatch, A 117 Hayes, P.A 88 Haynes, K 9,18,48 Hemer, S 47 Henderson, D.J 68 Heysmand, M 118 Hicks, R 141 Holland, G 52 Holton, C 111 Howell, G 134 Hussey, K 11 Hutton, M 5

I Ireland, N 18 Irons, M 27

Farquhar, S 115 Farrell, P 64 Fawcett, R.J 4, 13, 14, 138 Fehring, P 116 Ferguson, E 57,84 Ferguson, S.A 113 Fernando, S 114 Fiedler, J 117 Fitzsimmons, S 80 Fleischmann, C 69 Foster, H 61,86 Freeman, G 41 Friend, G 66 Fuentes, H 5 Fuller, P 38

Jansen, R 40 Jensen, S 31 Johnson, V 18 Johnston, D 18,31 Jones, M 24

G Gale, M 115 71 Gibbins QFSM, N Gibos, K 139 Gilbert, J 65 Ginger, J.D 68 Glavac, S 26 Goodwin, A 64 Gooding, O 55 Gould, J 6 Gould, J.S 30 Grant, I.F 130 Green, J 58 Grieve, B 55

K Kaandorp, G 86 Kalantari, M 20 Katurji, M 29 Kealy, A 112 Kendall, D 115 Kennedy, A 64 Kenyon, Z 77 Kepert, J 3, 14, 141 Kidnie, S 30,100,109, 122,128,129 Kirsch, T 31 Kitchin, M 47 Knight, T 58,131

L Lambie, B 115 Lambie, I 17 Langer, E.R 119 Langridge, P 58,131 Lawrence, S 120 Leavesley, A 56, 115 Leighton, M 117 Leon, J 62

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Levine, B 56 Lewis, A.D 121 Lewis, C 42 Lewthwaite, E 45 Lindell, M 31 Lockyer, G 45 Logan, M 13 Lokuge, W 67

M Mackenzie, I.S 49 Maier, H.R 19 Mallela, J 56 March, A 62 Marshall, G 26 Martin, D 100,109,122, 128,129 Marwood, S 102 McAneney, J 48 McCoy, L 123,124 McDonald, L 84 McFadgen, B 125 McGregor, J 26 McLennan, B 23 McNab, P 76 McNeill, J 26 McRae, R 126 Mealia, J 53 Mellor, D 54 Miller, E 72 Millington, B 74 Miville, B 45 Moinuddin, K 22 Moore, S 45 Morgan, M 111 Morley, P 26 Mousavi, A 112 Mullins, G 78 Murphy, P 127

N Nairn, J 4 Nathan, R 1 Neely, D 83 Newman, J.P 19 Newnham, G 129, 130 Nichols, D 30,100,109, 122,128,129 Nielsen, M 37 Norris, J 66 Norton, I 5

O Oâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;Halloran, M 28 Oldfield, S.M 121 Ooi, A 22 Owen, C 15,140

P Parker, W 55 Parsons, M 26,73 Pearce, G 45 Pearce, H 130 Perugini, D 54 Petal, M 18 Peyton, A 47 Phillips, E 10 Pikusa, E 19 Potts, K 20 Poutawera, V 59

R Rahman, M.H 20 Rajabifard, A 20 Rattray, B 136,137 Reeve, I 26 Reilly, T 54 Rhodes, A 54,85 Riley, C.B 117 Ronan, K 18,31 Rowlands, A 74 Rush, D 5 Ryburn, J 63

S Salkin, O 66 Sampson, C 51 Sanders, D 60 Sansom, J 45 Santiago, J 44 Savage, R 131 Schauble, J 53 Schell, P 108 Schembri, N 25 Schermer, T 111 Seddon, J 56 Setunge, S 67 Sharples, J 21,126 Short, A.J 75 Sithole, B. 6 Simpson, C 21,29 Siqueira, A.D 121 Slijepcevic, A 30 Smith, B 25 Smith, J.J 140 Smith, S 5 Southwell, M 73 Spencer, D 132

Standring, S 31 Stanley, S 133 Stayner, R 26 Stevenson, I 55 Streater, M 70 Sutton, S.A 87

T Taylor, M 25,134 Thieme, R 100 Thompson, K 7,25,117,135 Thoms, M 26 Thornton, R 79 Thorpe, G.R 22 Thurston, W 13,14 Tierney, K 2 Tolhurst, K 112 Tory, K.J 13,14 Towers, B 18 Townsend, P 34 Trigg, J 135

U Uddstrom, M.J 45 Ulubasoglu, M 20

V van Delden, H van den Honert, R

19 9

W Walker, A 104,136,137 Walsh, T 32 Warren, J.A 8 Warring, L 76 Welden, C 55 Wells, T 138,139 Whight, S 140 Whittaker, J 23 Wilding, P 17 Wilson, T 31 Wouters, M 55

Y Yates, L 36 Yeo, C 13, 138, 141

Z Zecchin, A.C 19 Zhong, P 112 Zuiderwyk, G 142

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AFAC Poster List Poster No.

Title

201

2013 Motorola Knowledge Innovation Award Winner - Agency

202

2013 Motorola Knowledge Innovation Award Winner - Individual

203

Guideline for First Responders Attending a Swift Water Rescue Incident

204

Australian Bushfire Fuel Classification System

205

National Burning Project - Starts to Spread

206

AIIMS-4 Doctrine Informed by Research

207

Fire Brigade Intervention Model 2015 (FBIM)

208

AIIMS 4 In Action

209

Strategic Directions for Fire and Emergency Services in Australia and New Zealand 2014â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2016

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Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Poster List Poster No.

Title

300

Can We Better Understand How Scientific Knowledges Work In Risk Mitigation Through Scenario Exercises? J. Wodak and T. Neale

301

Policies, Institutions And Governance (Pigs) Of Natural Hazards M. Eburn, K. Hussey, J. Pittock and S. Dovers

302

Flood Management In A Changing Climate C. Wenger

303

Growing Community Disaster Resilience: Are Arrangements For Implementing The National Strategy For Disaster Resilience Fit-For-Purpose? S. Hunt

304

The Heat Is On ...And Has Been For A While, New Research Shows L. Coates, K. Haynes, J. Oâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;Brien, J. Mcaneney and F. Dimer De Oliveira

305

Using Realistic Disaster Scenario Analysis To Understand Natural Hazard Impacts And Emergency Management Requirements F. Dimer De Oliveira and M. S. Mason

306

Disruption Of Critical Infrastructure During Prolonged Natural Disasters E. Phillips, J. Mcaneney and C. Magill

307

Resilient Cultures And The Role Of Innovation In Building Capacity C. Young

308

Handling Uncertainty In Optimal Decision-Making For Natural Hazard Mitigation Planning G. Riddell, A. Zecchin, H. Maier and H. Van Delden

309

Optimising Mitigation Measures Policy And Planning Decision Support J. P. Newman, H. R. Maier, H. Van Delden, A. Zecchin and G. C. Dandy

310

Improved Decision Support Systems: Enhanced Spatially Distributed Model Calibration C. P. Newland, H. Van Delden, J. P. Newman, H. R. Maier and A. C. Zecchin

311

Economics Of Natural Hazards D. Pannell, A. Hailu, and M. Burton

312

A Pre-Disaster Multi-Hazard Damage And Economic Loss Estimation Model For Australia A. Rajabifard

313

Volunteer Expectations & Experience B. Calcutt

314

Volunteer Retention In Emergency Services M. Jones

315

Non-Traditional Volunteering: Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) And Bushfire Preparation B. Haworth, E. Bruce, J. Whittaker

316

Wellbeing Of Firefighters H. Bancroft

317

The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index A System For Assessing The Resilience Of Australian Communities To Natural Hazards P. Morley, M. Parsons, S. Glavac, P. Hastings, G. Marshall, J. Mcgregor, J. Mcneill, I. Reeve, R. Stayner and M. Thoms

318

Scoping Community Resilience B. Sithole, O. B. Campion., D. Yibarbuk, C. Daniels, G. Daniels, E. Nelson and H. Hunter-Xenie

319

Child-Centred Disaster Risk Reduction: A Longitudinal Investigation Of Bushfire Education K. Mcauslan, B. Towers, J. Handmer and K. Ronan

320

The Role Of Children In Disasters: A Program Of Research K. Ronan, B. Towers, M. Petal, K. Haynes, J. Handmer, S. Davie, E. Alisic, N. Ireland, V. Johnson, D. Johnston

321

A Cross Cultural Investigation Of Child-Centred Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Indonesia and Australia A. Amri, K. Haynes and K. Ronan

322

Improving The Role Of Hazard Communications In Increasing Residentsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Preparedness And Response Planning I. Mcneill, J. Boldero, J. Handmer, D. Johnston, P. Dudgeon and A. Wearing

323

Building Resilient Communities: Creating Effective Multi-Channel Communication During Disaster Response And Recovery V. Tippet, D. Greer, A. Mehta, P. Dootson, S. Christensen, B. Duncan and A. Stickley

324

Managing Animals In Disasters (MAiD) Improving Preparedness, Response, And Resilience Through Individual And Organisational Collaboration M. Taylor, P. Burns, K. Thompson, B. Smith and G. Eustace

325

Legal Implications Of Utilising Social Media For Communication During A Disaster: An Analysis By Responder Group M. Baker-Jones

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Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC Poster List Poster No. 326

Out Of Uniform: Building Community Resilience Through Non-Traditional Emergency Volunteering J. Whittaker, B. Mclennan and J. Handmer

327

Capability Needs For Emergency & Disaster Management Organisations P. Barnes

328

Practical Decision Tools For Improved Decision-Making In Complex Situations C. Bearman, B. Brooks and C. Owen

329

What Can Derail Decision Making? A Phase Model Perspective J. Grunwald and C. Bearman

330

Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development For Building Related Earthquake Risk M. Griffith, N. Lam, H. Goldsworthy, J. Wilson, E. Gad, M. Edwards and H. Ryu

331

Improving The Resilience Of Existing Housing To Severe Wind Events D. Henderson, J. Ginger and M. Wehner

332

Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development For Flood Prone Buildings T. Maqsood, M. Wehner, K. Dale and M. Edwards

333

Enhancing Resilience Of Critical Road Infrastructure: Bridges, Culverts And Flood Ways Under Natural Hazards S. Setunge, W. Lokuge and H. Mohseni

334

Natural Hazards Exposure Information Modelling Framework K. Nadimpalli

335

Resilience To Clustered Disaster Events On The Coast â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Storm Surge S. Nichol, M. Woolf, J. Sexton, M. Hazelwood and T. Baldock

336

Developing Better Predictions And Forecasts For Extreme Water Levels Around Australia C.B. Pattiaratchi, E.M.S. Wijeratne, I.D. Haigh, M. Eliot, Y. Hetzel and I. Janekovi

337

Optimisation Of Fuel Reduction Burning Regimes: Determining Fire Size T. Bell and B. Kenny

338

Assessing Ecological Risk With Indigenous Communities: Tropical Savannas Northern Australia A. Edwards, C. Yates and J. Russell-Smith

339

Next Generation Models For Predicting The Behaviour Of Bushfires: Challenges And Prospects G. Thorpe, D. Chung, K. Moinuddin and A. Ooi

340

Disaster Landscape Attribution: Thermal Anomaly And Hazard Mapping S. Jones and K. Reinke

341

Thermal Remote Sensing For Wildfire Detection And Monitoring: Is It Fit For Purpose? J. Leversha

342

Mapping Bushfire Hazard And Impact M. Yebra, S. Marselis, A. Van Dijk, T. Jovanovic, G. Cary and A. Cabello-Leblic

343

Improved Predictions Of Severe Weather To Help Reduce Community Impact J. D. Kepert, K. J. Tory, R. J. B. Fawcett and W. Thurston

344

Fire Danger Indices: Current Limitations And A Pathway Towards Better Indices C. S Yeo, J. D Kepert, R. Hicks

345

Mitigating The Effects Of Severe Fires, Floods And Heatwaves Through The Improvements Of Land Dryness Measures And Forecasts I. Dharssi, V Kumar, C. S. Yeo, J. Bally and J. D. Kepert

346

Improving Flood Forecast Skill Using Remote Sensing Data S. Grimaldi, Y. Li, A. Wright, J. Walker, V. Pauwels

346a 347

Title

Improving Flood Forecasting Skill Using Remote Sensing Data A. Wright, J. Walker and V. Pauwels Understanding Community Experiences Of Fire Events â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Post Fire Studies L. Wright and J. McLennan

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DEPI Project Posters Poster No.

Title

348

Using Satellite Data To Identify Fuel Moisture Conditions Prior To Major Fires In South-East Australia 2009 Black Saturday And Other Large Fire Events - Moisture Conditions Project R. H. Nolan, R. A. Bradstock, V. Resco De Dios and M. Boer

349

Spatial Variation In Fuel Moisture: Measuring And Modelling Local Effects S. Matthews, R. Hurley and S. Roxburgh

350

A Statistical Analysis Of Bushfire Penetration Into Peri-Urban Areas M. Kilinc, W. Anderson, D. Anderson

351

Probability of Fire Ignition and Escalation J. Hearne, N. Read, P. Taylor

352

Smoke Impacts On Community Health And Social Perceptions M. Dennekamp, F. Reisen, M. Lankaputhra, K. Negishi, E. Jalil, A. Haikerwal, M. Abramson and F. Johnston

353

A Three-Tiered Smoke Forecasting System For Managing Air Pollution From Planned Burns M. Cope, S. Lee, M. Meyer, A. Sullivan, N. Surawski, L. Trindade, F. Reisen, A. Wain, C. Weston, L. Volkova, K. Tolhurst, T. Duff, D. Chong, S. Walsh, N. Tapper, S. Harris, C. Riduger, M. Kilinc, C. Paton-Walsh, E.A. Guerette, M. Desservettaz, G. Edwards and D. Howard

354

Foothills Fire And Biota Project: Understanding The Effects Of Fire And Environment On Biota S. Leonard, M. Bruce, F. Christie, J. Di Stefano, A. Haslem, G. Holland, L. Kelly, M. McCarthy J. MacHunter, L. Rumpff, K. Stamation, A. Bennett, M. Clarke, A. York

Bushfire CRC Posters Poster No.

Title

355

The Effects Of Fire-Plume Dynamics On The Lateral And Longitudinal Spread Of Long-Range Spotting W. Thurston, K. J. Tory, R. J. B. Fawcett and J. D. Kepert

356

An Experiment To Evaluate Uncertainty Visualization Techniques For Decision-Making In A Bushfire Situation L. Cheong, S. Bleisch, M. Duckham, A. Kealy and K. Tolhurst

357

Negotiating The Path Of Multi-Agency Coordination S. Curnin and C. Owen

358

Modelling Wildfire Asset Protection To Assist With Real-Time Resource Allocation M. Van Der Merwe, J. Minas, M. Ozlen and J. Hearne

359

A Hard Dayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Night: Does The Timing Of Your Daytime Sleep Affect How You Perform On 12-H Night Shifts? A. Kosmadopoulos, G. D. Roach, X. Zhou, D. Darwent and C. Sargent

360

Heat And Hydration: Firefighters Know What To Do B. Larsen, R. Snow and B. Aisbett

361

Long Shifts: Are The Breaks Important? G. Vincent, S. Ferguson and B. Aisbett

362

How A Lack Of Sleep On The Fire Ground May Be Impacting Firefightersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Physiological Stress Response A. Wolkow, B. Aisbett, S. Ferguson and L. Main

363

Effective Wildfire Communication In New Zealand: Target The Audience, Tailor The Message And Tune The Method E. R. Langer and M. Hart

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Notes

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

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Notes

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Precinct Map

POSITIVELY WELLINGTON VENUES

2 3

15 MINUTES TO AIRPORT

St James Theatre 77-87 Courtenay Place

Opera House

Michael Fowler Centre

111-113 Manners Street

James Cook

Rydges Hotel

Ibis Hotel

Intercontinental Hotel

West Plaza Hotel

Amora Hotel

Museum Hotel

Distinction Hotel

CIVIC SQUARE

Novotel Capital

ON FOOT?

5 6

Beehive & Parliament Buildings Museum of New Zealand Te Papa Tongarewa

Museum of Wellington City & Sea Bucket Fountain Westpac Stadium Cable Car i-Site

TRANSPORT

Wellington Town Hall

Queens Wharf (attached to TSB Bank Arena)

Shed 6

4 Queens Wharf

TSB Bank Arena

109 Wakefield Street

111 Wakefield Street

Academy Galleries

LANDMARKS

Everything you see on the map is within an easy stroll. To give you an idea, walking from the St James Theatre to Shed 6 would take approximately 10 minutes.

ES T PA CS TA D

TO INTERISLANDER TERMINAL

Wellington Airport

Railway Station & National Bus Services

Ferries

Local Bus Terminal

One Way Streets

Pedestrian Streets

AFAC14 Conference - Delegate Handbook

1 Queens Wharf

HOTELS

Booths

Upstairs to Research Forum Posters & Catering (Tues) & Conference Media Room

Posters

Speaker Prep Room

TSB Bank Arena Conference Trade Exhibition

Through to Meeting Rooms

Venue Map

Registration Desk