PREDICTING WEATHER
WHEN FIRES CAUSE STORMS
PHOTO: CHRISTINE HARPER, DBCA, WA
New technology is now available that predicts fire-generated thunderstorms, prompted by a sharp increase in the number of these storms and associated extreme fire events such as the devastating bushfires they caused in the 2019-20 fire season.
BY
BETHANY PATCH
Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC
Above: Firegenerated thunderstorm forming during Lake King fire in WA, February 2020.
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ire-generated thunderstorms, sometimes called pyrocumulonimbus clouds or pyroCbs, are ferocious weather systems that can exacerbate the damage already caused by the bushfires that create them. While they are only just beginning to be understood, research by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC is helping us measure and predict fire-generated thunderstorms more effectively. This research aims to
FIRE AUSTRALIA ISSUE ONE 2021
improve warning systems and assist agencies with analysis and forecasting. Dr Kevin Tory, Senior Research Scientist at the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), is one of the researchers taking part in the CRC’s Improved predictions of severe weather to reduce community impact project, which is exploring firegenerated thunderstorm prediction. The team’s research has developed a new tool that is helping fire agencies and BOM weather forecasters to predict when these dangerous storms might occur, so that fire agencies can warn communities and firefighters.
Dr Tory explains that fire-generated thunderstorms have much in common with conventional thunderstorms—both require warm humid air to be lifted into an unstable layer above. However, far less is known about the former, including why they have become so much more common recently. “We are getting better at identifying these storms with improved satellite coverage, but this can’t explain the dramatic increase in numbers of events we’ve seen globally in the last few years,” Dr Tory said. According to Rick McRae, who
