COVID-19 & Education: A World Bank Group Perspective

A collection of the World Bank’s blogs on Education written during the first 100 days of its response to the COVID-19 outbreak

COVID-19 & Education: A World Bank Group Perspective TABLE OF CONTENTS

I.

FOREWORD by Jaime Saavedra

1. Managing the impact of COVID-19 on education systems around the world: How countries are preparing, coping, and planning for recovery 2. Calling on researchers to help tackle the ongoing global education emergency 3. Educational challenges and opportunities of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic 4. How countries across Latin America use technology during COVID19-driven school closures 5. High-stakes school exams during COVID-19 (Coronavirus): What is the best approach?

6. How ministries of education work with mobile operators, telecom providers, ISPs and others to increase access to digital resources during COVID19-driven school closures (Coronavirus) 7. Montenegro: How a higher education and innovation project is helping COVID-19 (coronavirus) response 8. Schools’ readiness for digital learning in the eyes of principals. An analysis from PISA 2018 and its implications for the COVID19 (Coronavirus) crisis response 9. We should avoid flattening the curve in education – Possible scenarios for learning loss during the school lockdowns 10. Supporting the youngest learners and their families in the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) response 11. Tackling inequity in education during and after COVID-19 12. Successful examples of scaling up teaching and learning in response to COVID-19 13. Educational television during COVID-19: How to start and what to consider 14. Are students still learning during COVID-19? Formative assessment can provide the answer 15. Innovation in responding to coronavirus could pave the way for better learning outcomes in MENA 16. The COVID-19 cost of school closures 17. COVID-19’s immense impact on equity in tertiary education 18. TVET (Technical and Vocational Education and Training) in the times of COVID-19: Challenges and Opportunities 19. The Blending of Space and Time During COVID-19 20. Protecting education finance from COVID-19’s triple funding shock 21. Building Back Better: Accelerating learning when schools reopen, and what Kenya’s Tusome program can teach us 22. Reopening schools: When, where and how?

23. Supporting teachers during the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic 24. The impact of COVID-19 on labor market outcomes: Lessons from past economic crises 25. The education (negative) twin shocks, and the opportunity they bring 26. Croatia: How investing in information technology and digital competencies of students and teachers paid off during the pandemic 27. From coping to improving and accelerating: Supporting teachers in the pandemic and beyond 28. Under pressure: COVID-19 and the funding of European higher education

29. Learning equity during the coronavirus: Experiences from Africa 30. Helping Ethiopia fight COVID-19 and the “Infodemic” 31. School leadership in uncertain times 32. World Bank funded Uganda’s Africa Center of Excellence (ACE) PHARMBIOTRAC on the frontline of COVID-19 response 33. The Escuela Nueva Learning Circles: learning in emergency situations 34. Learning despite the crisis: the case of Edo State in Nigeria 35. Use of adaptive computer assisted remediation programs to prevent student dropout in the context of COVID-19 36. COVID-19 in East Asia: How the Region’s Higher Education Systems are Addressing the Crisis to Adapt to the Future 37. The Big Bad Wolf moves south: How COVID-19 affects higher education financing in developing countries 38. What will automation do to the labor market if education quality doesn’t improve? COVID-19 offers a preview 39. A lesson on the pandemic – the lesson we didn’t learn about inequality

FOREWORD The coronavirus pandemic forced education institutions across the entire planet to close. It is the biggest shock ever experienced by the global education community. Thousands and thousands of schools, technical institutions, and universities saw their classrooms empty from one day to the next. This tidal wave that swept the entire planet was followed by a deep global economic recession. This twin shock to education systems will have profound impacts on education outcomes. And it is not over yet.

Prior to the outbreak of the global coronavirus pandemic, the world was already struggling with a deep learning crisis, with 53% of children in low- and middle-income countries unable to read and understand a simple text by age 10. Countries now have a more challenging baseline and much larger inequality in educational outcomes to confront.

When alarm bells began to sound by late February on the growing spread of the COVID-19 virus, the World Bank established a multi-sectoral global task force to support countries’ crisis response and coping measures. At the time, only China and a handful of schools in other affected countries mandates school closures as part of their sanitary strategy to fight the pandemic. By mid-April, 1.6 billion students were out of school. By early July, more than 50 countries across the globe have begun to reopen schools, but still, over 1.1 billion of students have not resumed classes.

Without effective remedial action when students start returning to school – a back-to-school experience that will be very different in many cases – this generation of students stands to lose an estimated $10 trillion in earnings over their lifetime, and countries will be driven off-track to achieving their Learning Poverty reduction goals. As a result, if aggressive public policy measures are not taken, this generation of students may never achieve their full education, job, and earnings potential.

Early on, the World Bank’s Education Global Practice started working to support countries as they struggled to manage and cope with the crisis, advising on remote learning at-scale in the immediate to short-term. Operational and technical support then has moved to managing the continuity of the education service, as well as the return to school, and also preparing systems to build back better, to facilitate learning after the pandemic is over. The Bank is providing ongoing support to systemic education reform to ensure that schools can provide the necessary environments to ensure children are safe and engaged in a renewed accelerated learning process.

In fiscal year 2020, we provided a record amount of $5.2 billion in new commitments for education programs, with our overall portfolio surpassing $17.2 billion. All these projects are designed to improve learning and provide everyone with the opportunity to get the education they need to succeed. To address COVID, the WBG is restructuring operations or preparing 93 COVID-related education projects in 63 countries that amount to $2.3 billion, with a focus on the key drivers of learning: prepared learners, motivated and effective teachers, adequate resources and learning environments, and effective management and school leadership.

This compilation of our blogs during the about 100 days between March and June 2020 offers our analyses on how the pandemic has impacted the education sector across the globe, from early learning all the way to tertiary education.

Our thinking, worries, impressions have been changing over time. Data and analytics have been evolving. The collective understanding of how the pandemic was impacting, and what to do about it has been changing and continues doings so. Unfortunately , this is far from over. But it is useful to take stock, recap, and continue.

I hope you will find it both an interesting and helpful read.

Jaime Saavedra World Bank Group Global Education Director July 13th, 2020

Managing the impact of COVID-19 on education systems around the world: How countries are preparing, coping, and planning for recovery KALIOPE AZZI-HUCK | TIGRAN SHMIS |MARCH 18, 2020

Empty classroom in India

At the end of February as alarm bells began to sound on the growing spread of the COVID-19 virus, the World Bank established a multi-sectoral global task force to support country response and coping measures. At the time, only China and a handful of schools in other affected countries were enforcing social distancing through school closures. A little over two weeks later, 120 countries have closed schools impacting almost a billion students across the globe that have seen their schools close for varied lengths of time.

World Bank Education COVID-19 Monitoring (as of March 18th) As we have seen from previous health emergencies, most recently the Ebola outbreaks, the impact on education is likely to be most devastating in countries with already low learning outcomes, high dropout rates, and low resilience to shocks . While school closures seem to present a logical solution to enforcing social distancing within communities, prolonged closures tend to have a disproportionately negative impact on the most vulnerable students. They have fewer opportunities for learning at home, and their time out of school may present economic burdens for parents who may face challenges finding prolonged childcare, or even adequate food in the absence of school meals.

Hard-won gains in expanded access to education could stagnate or reverse as school closures are extended and accessibility to alternative options like distance learning remain out of reach for those without means to connect. This may cause further loss in human capital and diminished economic opportunities.

The most worrying issue is that the majority of low-income countries (for example, in SubSaharan Africa) are nor reporting many (or even any) cases yet. This creates uncertainties for both service delivery and for preparedness. It is not clear what should guide the decision-making process for these countries: should they move preemptively in spite of potential economic

fallout, or wait to see and risk widespread disease? Operating in the unknown creates substantial risks to all sectors, including education.

Possible solutions The outbreak of the virus and lockdowns at the national level could be used as a best test for the education technology interventions for distance learning. Unfortunately, few systems arrived at this point fully prepared. China is one country where education continued regardless of school closures, taking place through internet and distance learning. Other countries or school systems are less prepared. Access to technology in most households may vary, and access to high bandwidth internet, or to smartphones is related to income even in middle income countries.

Therefore, programs that can quickly target those in most need are crucial.

Education interventions during a crisis can support prevention and recovery of public health while mitigating the impact on students and learning. Where health facilities may be scarce, schools can be turned into makeshift holding centers during a crisis. This all needs to be factored into planning, particularly during the coping and recovery phases. It’s also worth noting that education has the potential to contribute to the protection of children and youth; it helps them cope or maintain some normalcy during a crisis, and recover more quickly, hopefully with some useful new skills (i.e. acquiring distance learning skills and deeper digital mastery where applicable). Furthermore, in some low-capacity environments, notably across swaths of Sub-Saharan Africa, schools are often the only permanent government structure in rural villages and can serve as makeshift crisis response centers. Teachers, often among the most educated in these hard-to-reach areas, can be trained to serve as contact tracers and communication campaign advocates.

How countries are managing Many client countries are implementing various forms of these strategies, including: •

•

•

Enhancing preparedness while keeping schools open: This involves enforcing and supporting preventive actions in schools (Afghanistan); establishing protocols for schools’ handling of illnesses and potential cases (Egypt, Russia, Belarus); using the education system’s infrastructure and human resources to address the spread of infections in communities (Liberia and Sierra Leone); and limiting physical contact by reducing social and extra-curricular activities (Singapore, Russia) Selective closing of schools: Choosing to isolate treatment areas, some governments have opted for localized school closures as an interim measure (for example India). In half the cases thus far, we have seen these localized approaches subsequently expand geographically (Brazil, India, Canada, Australia).

National closing of schools (the most used option globally): As the virus has spread, many countries are announcing national school closures. Many are concerned that children and youth, while seemingly less susceptible to the virus and have a much lower case-fatality ratio, may serve as carriers for the disease, putting at risk older family members in communities across the globe where multi-generational households are the norm.

•

Using remote learning and education resources to mitigate loss of learning: Many countries have turned to distance learning as a means of mitigating for lost time in school (fully online in China, Italy, France, Germany and Saudi Arabia; mobile phones or television in Vietnam, Mongolia). In addition to infrastructure and connectivity, teachers’ and administrators’ familiarity with the tools and processes are also key factors in providing distance learning (Singapore). Other countries send kids home with lessons as homework (Lebanon). In Bulgaria, more than 800,000 accounts have been created for all teachers and parents, publishers have been mobilized to open the digital textbooks and learning materials for grades 1 to 10, and two national TV channels will broadcast educational tv. As more countries close schools, more creativity will be needed. For instance, adapting existing platforms for use in smartphones, and/or agreeing with telecom companies to eliminate the cost of accessing material from a Ministry of education site could be part of the mitigation efforts.

Looking ahead

A Cyclical Approach to education in emergencies

What we are learning from COVID-19, similar to what we have seen in previous pandemics, is that preparedness is crucial. While different scenarios exist, several of them assume that the COVID-19 spread will happen in waves, which means the process of addressing it should be cyclical. Countries not yet impacted should begin “preparing,” starting with a response plan. This would facilitate “coping” once the crisis hits and minimizing the negative impacts. The plan can include introducing protocols for screenings in schools, rolling out hygiene practice campaigns, imposing school closures, offering distance learning, using closed schools for emergency purposes, etc.

As the emergency phase dissipates, communities could move into a “recovery” mode, with governments implementing policies and measures to regain lost time. The approaches may include adjustments to the academic calendar, prioritizing students in grades preparing for highstakes examinations, and continuing with distance learning in parallel to schools. Countries that have shown greater resilience in repeated crises, such as those in East Asia, are the ones that were able to benefit from lessons learned and to respond quickly to new crises, such as this

one. They have been able to use the momentum to re-prepare, investing and reinforcing systems going forward.

It is critical to jointly work building on the experience of previous outbreaks (SARS, Ebola, etc.) in support to Governments in understanding the options available. The World Bank is working with countries across the globe in each of the three stages of preparing, coping and recovery. Educational administrators and policy makers can use this crisis as an opportunity to introduce new learning modes that can reach everyone, to prepare for emergencies, and to make the system more resilient.

For more on COVID-19: The World Bank Group and COVID-19 (coronavirus) Kaliope Azzi-Huck & Tigran Shmis are World Bank COVID-19 Task Force Education Focal Points return to table of contents

Calling on researchers to help tackle the ongoing global education emergency ALAKA HOLLA | CRISTOBAL COBO | MARCH 27, 2020

The Strategic Impact Evaluation Fund (SIEF) has added a COVID-19 emergency window to its recent call for proposals.

In the past few weeks, the COVID-19 pandemic has shuttered schools in more than 160 countries, leaving more than 1.5 billion children – and 75% of enrolled students – out of school.

This has sent many school systems scrambling to prepare materials for remote learning and to adopt new technologies to reach children in their homes.They are largely doing this without much of an evidence base to guide their decisions. Most technologies for remote learning have been tested under ideal conditions, often with small samples of children who have access to a computer and a well-trained instructor and who do not find themselves in the middle of a worldwide health emergency.

While we’ve never witnessed this kind of global aggregate shock to education before, using technology to deliver education services is not new. Television can reach children in their homes.

Since the 1960s, the Mexican Telesecundaria program has provided remote learning through satellite television in multi-grade schools and in junior secondary education, targeting small remote villages that even today are unlikely to have high speed and consistent access to the internet. Millions of learners use it today in different countries (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Panama, and even the United States and Canada), and a recent evaluation estimates high impacts on both subsequent educational attainment and income later in life.

Radio programming can also achieve broad coverage and help children in low-resource environments learn. Back in the 1920s, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) in the UK

began using radio to broadcast education programs. A more deliberate approach to delivering education services is interactive radio instruction that asks learners to react to questions and exercises through verbal response. In Nicaragua in the late 1970s, in one of the first randomized control trials funded by the World Bank, this kind of radio-based math instruction was found to increase test scores significantly (by 1.5 standard deviations).

There is huge heterogeneity between countries in technological infrastructure and institutional capacity to take advantage of online platforms that could be repurposed for delivering education services during a lockdown. An interesting example is Egypt, where they have recently developed a large repository of study materials in English and Arabic for students (kindergarten to secondary school) among other national platforms and tools to help teachers communicate with students online.

Will these strategies work in countries around the world to reach the school children who now find themselves at home? Evidence generated in less fraught times suggests that designers of technology-based interventions need to account for multiple dimensions of the context – quality of infrastructure, skills of educators, and frequency of use - in order to translate the use of digital technology into real learning. Thus, the optimal technology and optimal deployment strategy are likely to vary across countries.

When it comes to thinking about health – specifically, preventing and treating cases of Covid-19 – most people would demand that any policies and measures adopted by governments be based on solid evidence rather than intuition or ideology. This is why there are already ongoing randomized control trials to test new vaccines and treatments for COVID-19 before they are rolled out to the population at large. We would not abandon the scientific method for the sake of expediency since getting things wrong comes at a huge cost in terms of both disease and lives lost.

We should expect the same for our responses in education since getting things wrong could lead to permanent decreases in human capital across multiple generations.

This is why the Strategic Impact Evaluation Fund (SIEF) has added a COVID-19 emergency window to its recent call for proposals, which focuses on generating evidence on the role of technology in accelerating learning and skills among children and adult learners. SIEF funds randomized control trials and quasi-experimental evaluations. We are prepared to expedite the application process for the COVID-19 window to generate results that countries can use immediately as they deal with school closures and prepare for the reopening of schools, including with interventions to offset any losses in learning.

Are there any researchers prepared to act quickly and start to identify (i) remote learning that achieves high coverage, high take-up, and learning, (ii) supplementary interventions that might be needed to maintain children’s social and emotional well-being, and (iii) and successful strategies for transitioning children back into school? If so, please apply. Quickly. We are in the midst of a global education emergency where evidence-base approaches are urgently needed. return to table of contents

Educational challenges and opportunities of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic JAIME SAAVEDRA | MARCH 30, 2020

An empty classroom in Nepal.

We are living amidst what is potentially one of the greatest threats in our lifetime to global education, a gigantic educational crisis. As of March 28, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic is causing more than 1.6 billion children and youth to be out of school in 161 countries. This is close to 80% of the world’s enrolled students. We were already experiencing a global leaning crisis, as many students were in school, but were not learning the fundamental skills needed for life. The World Bank’s “Learning Poverty” indicator – the % of children who cannot read and understand at age 10 – stood at 53% of children in low- and middle-income countries – before the outbreak started.

This pandemic has the potential to worsen these outcomes even more if we do not act fast.

What should we be worried about in this phase of the crisis that might have an immediate impact on children and youth? (1) Losses in learning (2) Increased dropout rates (3) Children missing their most important meal of the day. Moreover, most countries have very unequal education systems, and these negative impacts will be felt disproportionately by poor children.

When it rains, it pours for them.

Learning. Starting the school year late or interrupting it (depending on if they live in the southern or northern hemisphere) completely disrupts the lives of many children, their parents, and teachers. A lot can be done to at least reduce the impact through remote learning strategies. Richer countries are better prepared to move to online learning strategies, although with a lot of effort and challenges for teachers and parents. In middle-income and poorer countries, the situation is very mixed and if we do not act appropriately, the vast inequality of

opportunities that exists – egregious and unacceptable to start with – will be amplified. Many children do not have a desk, books, internet connectivity, a laptop at home, or supportive parents. Others do. What we need to avoid – or minimize as much as possible – is for those differences in opportunities to expand and cause the crisis to have an even larger negative effect on poor children’s learning.

Fortunately, we are seeing a lot of creativity in many countries. Rightly so, many ministries of education are worried that relying exclusively on online strategies will imply reaching only children from better-off families. The appropriate strategy in most countries is to use all possible delivery modes with the infrastructure that exists today. Use online tools to assure that lesson plans, videos, tutorials, and other resources are available for some students and probably, most teachers. But also, podcasts and other resources that require less data usage. Working with telecommunication companies to apply zero-rate policies can also facilitate learning material to be downloaded on a smartphone, which more students are likely to have.

Radio and TV are also very powerful tools. The advantage we have today, is that through social networks, WhatsApp or SMS, ministries of education can communicate effectively with parents and teachers and provide guidelines, instructions and structure to the learning process, using content delivered by radio or TV. Remote learning is not only about online learning, but about mixed media learning, with the objective of reaching as many students as possible, today.

Staying engaged. Maintaining the engagement of children, particularly young secondary school students is critical. Dropout rates are still very high in many countries, and a long period of disengagement can result in a further increase. Going to school is not only about learning math and science, but also about social relationships and peer-to-peer interactions. It is about learning to be a citizen and developing social skills. That is why it is important to stay connected with the school by any means necessary. For all students, this is also a time to develop socioemotional skills and learn more about how to contribute to society as a citizen. The role of parents and family, which has always been extremely important, is critical in that task. So, a lot of the help that ministries of education provide, working through mass media, should also go to parents. Radio, TV, SMS messages can all be used to provide tips and advice to them on how to better support their children.

Meals. In many parts of the world, school feeding programs provide children with their most nutritious meal of the day. They are essential for the cognitive development and well-being.

These programs are complex logistical and administrative endeavors. It is not easy, but countries should find the way to provide those meals using the school buildings in an organized fashion, community buildings or networks, or, if needed, distribute directly to the families. If delivering meals or food is not feasible logistically, cash transfer programs should be expanded or implemented to compensate the parents. Planning is needed, but one has to be ready to flexibly adjust plans, as the information we have about the likely paths of the pandemic change day by day, influenced by the uncertainty around which mitigation measures countries are taking. The process of reopening of schools might be gradual, as authorities will want to reduce agglomeration or the possibility of a second wave of the pandemic, which can affect some countries. In that uncertain context, it might be better to make decisions assuming a longer,

rather than a shorter scenario. The good news is that many of the improvements, initiatives, and investments that school systems will have to make might have a positive long-lasting effect.

Some countries will be able to increase their teachers’ digital skills. Radio and TV stations will recognize their key role in supporting national education goals – and hopefully, improve the quality of their programming understanding their immense social responsibility. Parents will be more involved in their children’s education process, and ministries of education will have a much clearer understanding of the gaps and challenges (in connectivity, hardware, integration of digital tools in the curriculum, teacher’s readiness) that exist in using technology effectively and act upon that. All of this can strengthen the future education system in a country.

The mission of all education systems is the same. It is to overcome the learning crisis we were already living and respond to the pandemic we are all facing. The challenge today is to reduce as much as possible the negative impact this pandemic will have on learning and schooling and build on this experience to get back on a path of faster improvement in learning. As education systems cope with this crisis, they must also be thinking of how they can recover stronger, with a renewed sense of responsibility of all actors and with a better understanding and sense of urgency of the need to close the gap in opportunities and assuring that all children have the same chances for a quality education. return to table of contents

How countries across Latin America use technology during COVID19-driven school closures CRISTOBAL COBO | ROBERT HAWKINS | HELENA ROVNER | |MARCH 31, 2020

Young students from the Dominican Republic.

Just like doctors and nurses in the health sector, educators are taking remarkable actions to support over 1.5 billion learners in over 160 countries whose schools have closed.

With no precedent for such large-scale interruption, education leaders in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries are learning from the region’s extensive experience in mass media education broadcasting. The World Bank organized a broad consultation recently to learn from this rich tradition and support LAC countries in responding to the current education crisis.

Countries are adapting innovative and flexible ways during this crisis. They are incorporating different channels and media to facilitate teaching and learning. All participant countries implemented a national repository of digital resources (and offline learning materials when possible) and/or a learning management system (LMS) where students connect with their teachers. WhatsApp, phone or social media was adopted to provide pedagogical guidance and support for teachers and parents. However, since the Internet is not accessible for all, the use of educational radio and TV still plays a relevant role. Below more examples of the initiatives and programs that Latin American countries are activating in response to the crisis.

Emerging lessons and next steps It is too early to assess the impact of all these actions. Some of the valuable lessons learned so far are: i) to extend the use of the existing technologies and resources to provide a rapid response, keeping in mind that the primary objective is pedagogical; ii) to collate educational resources in one place, implementing a multi-channel strategy; iii) to ensure that content can be used offline; iv) to include television and radio as a valuable resource; v) to implement a hotline and use WhatsApp to provide guidance and pedagogical assistance; vi) to offer downloaded textbooks; vii) to adopt national channels for providing social-emotional support to parents and educators; viii) to deploy public Wi-Fi access points; ix) to create call centers to support parents; and x) to explore partnerships with local mobile and telecom operators for reduced costs access.

Obviously, there are countries that are more advanced than others. Now the challenge will be to ensure that these technological solutions can effectively minimize the disruptions that the COVID19 pandemic is generating. Evidently, digital technologies are not a panacea, but they can offer scalable solutions especially when the current crisis risks amplifying the existing inequalities.

While the focus is on emergency response it will be important to consider the medium and longterm actions (the chance of a similar shutdown in the future is unknown but possible), therefore some questions remain open: •

• • • • • • •

Can LAC countries adopt "zero cost", particularly for educational resources? (see South Africa’s experience); How to prepare the national/regional digital infrastructures to face an unprecedented demand?

What are the best strategies to combine fully online and offline learning technologies? (see an EdTech selection of platforms, and resources here) How to better prepare educators and parents to navigate in this new context?

How to implement effective multi-channel education strategies from TV to WhatsApp? How countries should protect learners online (and their privacy) ensuring respect and a healthy use of the Internet?

How to avoid dependence on some vendors?

How to transition from education delivery to meaningful learning?

How to implement quality assurance under the new circumstances?

The information we collected gives a sense of what the countries are working on.

Colombia: The strategy combines on-line, off-line and broadcasting. For those families with internet access “aprender digital”, a national platform with over 80,000 digital resources, organized by grades (in different modalities, such as games, videos, etc.) is available. For those without connectivity, the government is preparing a kit to learn from home organized by grade, including different resources. In addition, Colombia is broadcasting educational programs on both public radio and TV, for students from primary to middle school. Relevant resources: https://contenidos.colombiaaprende.edu.co and https://www.enticconfio.gov.co (rep ository of learning materials)

Costa Rica: To reach homes, a national emergency platform with educational resources was created (“aprendo en casa�). In addition, public media broadcasts specific programs (for kids, parents, and teachers) available on different subjects. Costa Rica reaches its teachers through digital tools and resources such as a virtual classroom or a guide for autonomous work.

However, not all are shared online. The administration is also planning to offer hard copy resources for parents with no access to the internet. Moreover, TV is considered essential to those families who lack internet access in order to broadcast useful COVID19 related information, hygiene recommendations, etc. Relevant resource: http://www.cajadeherramientas.mep.go.cr/ (content repository for teachers) Dominican Republic: The administration is combining a national education portal with curated content classified by grade, with radio as well as public and private TV broadcasts. As an action to facilitate access to the internet, over 1,000 free public Wi-Fi access points have been set up. WhatsApp groups are giving specific support to teachers and parents and provide helpful content. Relevant resources: iq.edu.do (platform for secondary education), enlinea.minerd.gob.do (content repository and platforms), educando.edu.do (content platform for students) and eduplan.educando.edu.do (platform for teacher planning) Ecuador: Ministry of Education has developed a set of guides for educators to ensure that learning is not interrupted, and to help build teacher capacity for remote delivery. A national information unit (via email and phone) was created to provide guidance and critical information to teachers and parents. A national educational platform is available with over 800 pedagogical resources, combined with the use of traditional media to broadcast educational content, through both radio and TV. A virtual classroom offers online sessions on a national scale. Psychological and pedagogical support is also being offered to respond to requests from parents and students. Assessment, as in most countries, remains a challenge and the government has decided that work during this period will not be graded nor count toward final course assessment. All these resources are promoted via video tutorials and social media.

Relevant resource: http://www.educa.ec/ (content repository and platforms) El Salvador: In addition to implementing a national platform with a repository of materials for delivery in various modalities (TV, multimedia, teacher communities), a set of orientation guidelines have been made available to teachers and students, and also to parents. Educational videos are being prepared (to be distributed via TV, YouTube and Facebook). Also, a national call center (accessible via email and WhatsApp) was set up to provide support to parents and students in delivery of educational activities. Relevant resource: https://www.mined.gob.sv/emergenciacovid19/ (learning materials and guidance for parents and teachers) Nicaragua: While schools have not yet been closed, the Ministry is implementing a multi-layer contingency plan to inform and implement to ensure that learning will continue if schools are closed. Currently in the prevention phase the government offers video tutorials with good hygiene advice in schools. The contingency plan would help students at home (including a methodology of distance learning with guidance on the use of online platforms). The team is preparing pedagogical guides, by grade, and organizing digital content to be shared in the

educational platform. WhatsApp and social media are key coordination and communication channels. A call center to support families is currently under preparation. The role that directors of schools are expected to play will be crucial. Relevant resource: https://www.mined.gob.ni/biblioteca/ (learning materials and guidance for teachers) Paraguay: An agreement with a large tech company was reached to offer an educational package at "zero cost" to benefit 60,000 teachers and 1.2 million students. In addition, the administration has launched a national portal (adapted for users with limited broadband connectivity) which will be combined with traditional media broadcast. Related resource: https://aprendizaje.mec.edu.py/index.php/es/recursos (learning materials and guidance for teachers) Peru: The government is adopting a strategy to use different channels to distribute content: internet, TV, radio, and phones. The actions include content curation (combining owned content with proprietary content from partner institutions) aligned with the national curriculum. A national platform combines virtual classes with mobile messaging. Close coordination with local radio stations to broadcast the educational content in local languages is also ongoing. Relevant resource: http://www.perueduca.pe/ (learning materials and guidance for teachers) Uruguay: In the country where every student from public education (primary and secondary) has access to a computer device, the focus is on getting educational content ready for the devices plus providing the needed pedagogical assistance to educators. A National Learning Management System (LMS, where educators can both have their own virtual classroom and/or improve their teaching skills) along with other platforms such as a national online library are provided. The challenge is to assure that every educator (including those who need to enhance digital skills) receive the orientation and support they need to adopt the different platforms and resources available; to reach that goal the national call center organized by Plan Ceibal, as well as social media can play a key role. Relevant resources: https://valijas.ceibal.edu.uy/; https://rea.ceibal.edu.uy (learning materials and guidance for teachers) While it is uncertain how long this crisis is going to last, there is no question that parents and educators play a remarkable role in supporting learners of all ages. All of them will deserve recognition from all of us, today and on the day when this crisis is behind us.

SPECIAL THANKS: Emanuela Di Gropello, Ciro Avitabile, Ingrid Bjerke and Florencia Chaves for helping to organize this meeting and to Inaki Sรกnchez, Marcela Gutierrez and Michael Trucano for sharing resources and feedback.

The image used at the top of this blog post comes from Danilo Medina via Flickr and used according to the terms of its Creative Commons license, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0. return to table of contents

High-stakes school exams during COVID-19 (Coronavirus): What is the best approach?

JULIA LIBERMAN | VICTORIA LEVIN | DIEGO LUNA-BAZALDUA | MICHELLE HARNISCH | APRIL 01, 2020

Solutions and measures are being introduced for the exams that students have been preparing to take.

For many students around the world, the end of the school year is associated with high-stakes examinations. These are often used to select or certify students as they move from one level of the education system to the next (or into the workforce). Normally, examinations also play an important equity role in limiting the effects of patronage and opening up access to educational opportunities for students from relatively disadvantaged backgrounds. With the coronavirus forcing school closures and bans on group gatherings, many solutions and measures are being introduced for the exams that students have been preparing to take. There are three main alternative approaches.

Examinations are cancelled Norway has canceled all written examinations for 10th grade (final year) students in junior high school and for students in all three years of high school. The consequences of the cancellation are not expected to be large, as exams count for 20 percent of the final grade, while course participation counts for 80 percent. In Uttar Pradesh in India, students in grades 1-8 will be promoted to the next grade without taking examinations. In the United States, the SAT is often used in the university admissions process and is administered in person at schools. The May 2, 2020, SAT has been cancelled, and the June 6 test is being reviewed. Hence many U.S. universities are adjusting their admissions criteria to make such tests optional. Likewise, the International Baccalaureate examinations will not be held, and instead students will be awarded

a Diploma or a Course Certificate “based on the student’s coursework and the established assessment expertise, rigor and quality control already built into the programmes.”

Examinations are postponed For students planning to take the West African Senior School Certificate Examination (WASSCE) in May and June 2020, the exam has been suspended in their countries and will be revisited once the health situation improves. The Caribbean Examination Council (CXC), which covers 16 countries and territories in the West Indies, has postponed its high school exams from May and June to July 2020. Although the Czech Republic has introduced preparation for school-leaving examinations on TV, there are now discussions to postpone the exams. Hong Kong has postponed its Diploma of Secondary Education (DSE) exam by a month (to April 24, 2020).

In Ireland, discussions are underway to postpone for several months the Leaving Cert, the terminal exam for post-primary education that is used for selection to further education and employment), which was originally planned for June 2020, as well as to postpone the start of the next academic year at higher education institutions. Likewise in India, exams to enter higher education have been postponed, and the government is working to revise the exam schedule as well as adjust the academic calendar. In China, the GaoKao university entrance examinations, which nearly 10 million students take per year, are postponed by one month to July 7 and 8, 2020. In Colombia, state exams have been postponed as options for rescheduling are explored.

Examinations continue to take place in modified format Some examinations are continuing to take place. In the United Kingdom, sixth-year medical school students have just taken their exams online for the first time. Students had three hours to answer 150 questions, so although the exam was in “open book” format, it was presumably impossible to do well by searching for information online without having sufficient knowledge of the subject matter. Advanced Placement (AP) exams, which measure students’ mastery of content and skills in a specific subject and are used to obtain college credit in the United States, will be administered online this year in free-response format, with resources provided to students and administrators online. The CXC high school exams in the Caribbean are expected to be implemented in modified online and offline formats, with multiple choice assessments plus school-based assessments to determine final grades.

In Germany, secondary school-leaving exams will take place under strict hygiene and distance regulations. Depending on the specific state, exams have already taken place, have been postponed by a few weeks, or will be conducted on schedule.

What is the right approach?

It depends. In general, examinations are used to make decisions about an individual student’s progress through the education system, including the allocation of educational opportunities.

For exams to be fair to all students, they should be standardized – factors such as the content and format of the examination papers and tasks, the administration conditions, access to resources and any supporting materials, and analysis of results should be the same (or equivalent) for all students. Along with validity and reliability, fairness is important to maintain, as high-stakes decisions are made about students’ futures based on their results. Thus, bodies

such as examination councils, boards, and ministries of education will need to address several key questions before determining how to proceed, including: •

•

•

If exams are cancelled or postponed beyond the scheduled date for high-stakes decisions, on what basis will decisions be made for allocating scarce resources, such as university spaces or scholarships, and how can transparency and fairness be preserved?

If exams move to an online format, how can fair access be ensured for all students? What provisions will guarantee that students in remote or rural areas, those with disabilities, and those with no (or low-quality) access to the internet or to computers or tablets will be able to take the exam? How will the examinations team ensure that test security is maintained, and what mechanisms will prevent test manipulation or item leakage? Finally, how can students from different socioeconomic backgrounds prepare for the new format/delivery of exams in an equitable and fair way, given the disruption of classroom learning?

If exams are replaced with teacher (or “expert”)-provided grades, what resources need to be delivered to teachers to ensure accurate and fair assessment and effective communication of what students know and can do, particularly in the context of distance learning?

Within rapidly evolving circumstances and an uncertain duration of disruption, it is not yet clear which approach is the right one, and it is likely that coming months will reveal that different approaches are best suited to specific examination systems. Understanding should prevail at times when students and their parents are concerned not only about their futures, but about their lives. A ray of hope can be seen in Korea, where COVID-19 seems to be better contained than in most countries, and where students are continuing to study and prepare for university entrance exams in November 2020. Hopefully in coming weeks and months, as social distancing policies and responsive health systems make headway against the health emergency, students around the world can resume worrying about how to do well on their exams – in whichever format and delivery mode – rather than about the health of their loved ones and about whether the exams they have studied so hard for will take place at all.

Information provided is as of March 31, 2020 and may not reflect the latest updates as the decisions about examinations are evolving. return to table of contents

How ministries of education work with mobile operators, telecom providers, ISPs and others to increase access to digital resources during COVID19-driven school closures (Coronavirus) MICHAEL TRUCANO | APRIL 02, 2020

With schools closed around the world as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, many countries that are seeking to promote and support online learning for students at home are running into challenges.

One easy-to-understand challenge relates to access: How can we – quickly – help students (and teachers) get online, and stay online?

There are numerous other challenges, of course, many of them very difficult to solve -- especially in the short run in a crisis environment. (A recent World Bank quick response guidance note identifies some of them.) But some of the access-related challenges can be addressed.

Many ministries of education are working with mobile operators, telecom providers, ISPs and other companies to increase access to digital resources while schools are closed. Drawn from the World Bank’s tracking of edtech and remote learning during the COVID-19 pandemic in specific countries, here are 10 practical examples of what is happening in this regard around the world, very quickly, related to improving connectivity:

1. Zero-rating Ministries of education are working with mobile operators to designate that data related to specific educational web sites or applications be charged a zero tariff, i.e., that no data charges will apply when these resources are accessed. “Zero-rating” is one of the quickest ways to improve cost-free access to online materials. In some countries it is already in widespread use, in others it is not used (or even unknown). [Example country: South Africa] 2. Bandwidth shaping Ministries of education can request that telecom providers give preferential access to scarce bandwidth for education-related data and services . In addition, countries can request that web and cloud hosting providers provide increased bandwidth at the server level. [Kenya] 3. Lifting data caps Some countries are lifting data caps on educational connectivity programs. In other words: A student used to be able to use 4GB a month for free; now she can use 8GB. [Turkey] 4. Unbanning VOIP Where VOIP (“voice over Internet protocol,” basically calling over the internet) is banned, ministries of education can work with regulators and the ministry of telecommunications to allow it, in order to enable communication between educators and students in support of remote learning. [Oman] 5. Tapping Universal Service Funds Many countries have Universal Service Funds that can be tapped to promote access to connectivity to the benefit of education, and/or in crisis situations. Many ministries of education don’t realize that these monies, which can be an excellent source of quick funding in some countries, can be used to help meet educational objectives.

6. Distributing devices in communities Ministries of education are working with mobile operators to help get more devices into the hands of learners and teachers in a variety of ways, including not only procuring and delivering new devices (in some cases, Universal Service Funds can be used to help with this), but also in inventorying, preparing and distributing devices from schools for home use. [Egypt] 7. Public hotspots, and lighting up old services and devices Some ministries are working with Internet providers to set up free public Wi-Fi access points that students can walk to and upload/download data. Where past educational connectivity programs have run their course, some telecom providers are also simply turning them back on for previously registered devices. [United States] 8. SMS campaigns and call center support Ministries of education can work with mobile providers to support awareness-raising campaigns in support of online learning via SMS (and in some cases, are working with the telecom ministry to enable related mass texting activities that may run afoul of regulations related to “text spam”)

and to quickly set up call center helpdesks to support remotely located teachers, learners and their families. [Ecuador]

9. Free SIM cards Ministries of education are working with mobile providers to make available free SIM cards for use by teachers and students, with expedited registration procedures, coupled with special data plans. [Kyrgyz Republic] 10. ___ We have left #10 blank here, as an acknowledgement that many more things are happening, and as an invitation for others to share what they are seeing, and know.

--When it comes to providing access to online learning, connectivity is only the first step in a much larger process. In many ways, it is the easiest challenge to address. That said, for many students, there are very serious equity concerns and challenges at play, and the connectivity-related approaches identified here will not be enough. (Some countries are also returning to older technologies, like the traditional broadcast mass media of radio and television, to reach the widest number of learners.)

During the COVID-19 crisis, it is critical that ministries of education seeking to offer remote learning leverage partners and enlist the support of a broader ecosystem of actors. Whatever is done, however, governments would do well (as always) to be very careful about related agreements that they sign with private companies, and establish sunset provisions for new policies that are quickly put in place. This wil help ensure that agreements and practices enacted during a crisis situation don’t become permanent without further reflection.

(If you know of additional models in place that aren’t listed here, please feel free to reach out to us – either in the comments sections below, by tweeting at @WBedutech, or by sending us an email using a contact form on this web site.)

You may also be interested in the following posts from the EduTech blog archive: Universal Service Funds & connecting schools to the Internet around the world https://blogs.worldbank.org/edutech/universal-service-funds-connecting-schools-internetaround-world Zero-rating educational content on the Internet https://blogs.worldbank.org/edutech/zero-rating-educational-content-internet How many schools are connected to the Internet? https://blogs.worldbank.org/edutech/how-many-schools-are-connected-internet return to table of contents

Montenegro: How a higher education and innovation project is helping COVID-19 (coronavirus) response ROBERTA MALEE BASSETT | DANICA RAMLJAK | APRIL 07, 2020

A health worker conducts laboratory tests.

On March 17, Montenegro became the last European country to record a positive COVID-19 test.

Since then, the virus has been identified in 201 patients (as of April 4), resulting in two deaths.

Over 6,000 citizens are in isolation. As is true for many developing countries, Montenegro is facing massive challenges in responding effectively and rapidly to the evolving COVID-19 pandemic, including in gaining access to the necessary diagnostic equipment and expertise. But there is some good news.

At the Institute for Public Health (IPH) in Podgorica, the capital, doctors are conducting very sensitive tests to detect the coronavirus presence where it is suspected in patients. Like many colleagues across the world, they are relying on highly specialized equipment, the RT-PCR – realtime reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction – machine, which is the most reliable method of virus detection available according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The Institute acquired the machine back in 2015, with support from the World Bank-funded Higher Education and Research for Innovation and Competitiveness (HERIC) project, which focusing on strengthening higher education and research at universities across Montenegro. The

investment is now paying off just as the nation needs such highly sophisticated technology the most.

As part of the project, Dr. Igor Pajovic of the University of Montenegro brought the RT-PCR machine to the Institute and provided training to its staff. Dr. Pajovic says that “Now with the COVID-19 outbreak, the Institute is able to use this very sensitive test to quickly and efficiently detect infected patients and to develop appropriate measures to fight COVID-19 pandemic.”

Another university in the capital, the University of Donja Gorica (UDG), received valuable equipment and knowledge as part of the HERIC project. The ProDe laboratory at UDG now has state-of-the-art equipment for 3D printing, scanning, and modeling, as well as for mechanical testing and materials. This technology is now being used extensively to produce protective visors that provide effective shields for medical staff who are treating COVID-19 patients across the country.

A health worker wears a 3D printed visor.

Through the HERIC project, the government is demonstrating its commitment to strengthening the quality and relevance of higher education and research. The Ministry of Education has focused on reforming the country’s higher education finance and quality assurance systems, while the Ministry of Science has worked to strengthen innovation, research, and development capabilities. All these measures are vital for the country’s economic development and job creation. Apart from creating a more robust environment for the academic and scientific community, the project has also helped provide access to state-of-the-art training for the country’s young researchers. And that investment is bringing results today, in the rapid deployment of local scientists and technology in the fight against COVID-19.

Minister of Science, Sanja Damjanovic

The Minister of Science, Sanja Damjanovic, notes: “Two out of eight HERIC project-funded academic centers are now directly contributing to the fight against the COVID-19 in Montenegro.” She adds, “All this is yet another great lesson to emphasize the importance of investing in science and research.”

Higher education is instrumental in fostering long-term growth in both low- and middle-income countries. A highly skilled workforce is a prerequisite for a country’s ability to tackle complex challenges like the coronavirus outbreak. return to table of contents

Schools’ readiness for digital learning in the eyes of principals. An analysis from PISA 2018 and its implications for the COVID19 (Coronavirus) crisis response JUAN MANUEL MORENO | LUCAS GORTAZAR | APRIL 08, 2020

Ministries of education around the world try to ensure learning continuity for children and youth through distance learning.

Across more than 170 countries, some 1.5 billion students have seen schools close as part of their governments’ response to the coronavirus (COVID-19). Now, ministries of education around the world try to ensure learning continuity for children and youth through distance learning. In most cases, efforts involve the use of various digital platforms featuring educational content, and a variety of educational technology (EdTech) solutions to keep communication and learning spaces as open and stimulating as possible.

The paradox facing all countries is that, while these technological solutions seem to be the best way to minimize huge learning losses during the crisis (especially for vulnerable students), they also risk further widening equity gaps in education . Thus, if the digital gap in education were to increase while schools are closed, learning inequality and learning poverty would also inevitably increase. Learning continuity would then be ensured for some but denied to others.

Initial efforts are focusing on ensuring that all students have access to the Internet, the first dimension of the digital gap. This would allow all students to access online learning materials

and digital platforms with educational content. However, even in rich countries where Internet connectivity is all but universal and there is little gap in access, the COVID-19 crisis has illuminated two more dimensions to the digital gap.

The second dimension is the digital use gap: without direction, engagement with online content is less sophisticated and less learning-oriented for students from poorer socioeconomic backgrounds. The third dimension is the school digital gap: the capacities and capabilities of each school to provide individualized, or suitably levelled and sequenced, digital learning for students; to promote and monitor engagement with these materials; and provide to feedback that helps maximize learning outcomes. For example, one school might be sending printed materials only or suggesting that students watch videos aimed at the general public, while another school is able to continue classes virtually or initiate creative ways of using digital apps for collaborative learning and individualized student support. The vast disparity in schools’ capabilities makes it easy to see why this is the most relevant digital gap for ensuring that students can keep learning during the pandemic.

Since nobody knows more about schools than their principals, we have looked at the Principals’ Questionnaire in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2018 to see what they said about the readiness of their schools and teachers to create and manage digital learning experiences for students. Their responses bring some hope, but also a realistic and somewhat disappointing picture.

Do principals agree that there is an effective online learning support platform available to their students?

Principals in slightly more than half of education systems surveyed said that most 15-year-old students are in a school without an effective online learning support platform. This is the case in all participating countries from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), most of those from Europe and Central Asia (ECA) (not the Baltics, Turkey, and Kazakhstan) and all of those from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), except Qatar, plus a considerable number of high-income and OECD member countries (France and Portugal had 35 percent of students with no access, Germany 34 percent, and Japan 25 percent). While most countries are in the range of 35 to 70 percent, universal access to such platforms is within reach only for a few countries, including all the Nordic countries, Singapore, Qatar, and the four Chinese provinces participating in PISA 2018, and to a lesser extent Australia, New Zealand, Thailand and the United States. Overall, most countries are in the range of 35 to 70 percent of students attending schools in which the principal reports the availability of effective online learning support platforms. Hence the world’s education systems remain very far from universal availability of effective online platforms for student learning.

Figure 1. An Effective Online Learning Support Platform is Available Percentage of 15-year-old students whose school principal agreed or strongly agreed

Do teachers have the necessary technical and pedagogical skills to integrate digital devices in instruction?

Principals had a much more positive opinion on this question. With just a few outliers (most notably, Japan), most countries have around two-thirds of 15-year old students in schools whose principals think their teachers have the technical and pedagogical skills for digital learning. Highincome OECD members, again, do not fare better than middle-income countries. Differences between regions are comparatively small, although LAC and MENA lag behind ECA and East Asia and Pacific (EAP). In the COVID-19 crisis, the responses on this question offer some hope, though two-thirds seems low for teachers while at the same time raises concerns about the remaining third, whose teachers do not have skills that are now indispensable for successful digital learning during the school closures.

Figure 2. Teachers Have the Necessary Technical and Pedagogical Skills to Integrate Digital Devices in Instruction Percentage of 15-year-old students whose school principal agreed or strongly agreed

Are there effective professional resources to learn how to use the digital devices that are available to teachers?

Principals were reasonably positive in their views on this question. For most countries, between 45 and 80 percent of students are in schools whose principal considers that effective resources exist for teachers to use the digital devices available, with quite a few countries reaching 90 percent and higher. Here again, rich countries are not particularly different from middle-income countries across LAC, MENA, EAP, and ECA. The two outliers are Japan and Hungary, where principals report a lack of such resources (affecting 19 and 29 percent of students, respectively).

With close to a third of students having teachers who lack access to these professional resources, the COVID-19 crisis increases the urgency for ministries of education and private sector providers around the world to create and make available more and better resources for teachers (and now parents as well).

Figure 3. Effective Professional Resources for Teachers to Learn How to Use Digital Devices are Available Percentage of 15-year-old students whose school principal agreed or strongly agreed

Conclusion: Digital gaps in education are important to address in response to COVID-19 and future crises When it comes to education inequalities, the digital paradox is inescapable. In most of the 82 education systems participating in PISA, there is a positive correlation between the three variables described above and student socioeconomic status (a positive and statistically significant correlation is found in 46, 47 and 56 countries for each of the three variables described respectively). Thus, during COVID-19 and any future need for intermittent school closures, digital learning has the potential both to avoid widening learning inequalities and, paradoxically, to exacerbate them.

The good news is that most school principals are quite confident about the pedagogical skills of their teachers and the availability of resources to help them use digital learning while students remain at home. It is critical now to ensure universal access to the Internet, as this can enable schools to use EdTech effectively, in age-appropriate ways, as part of their regular instruction. The aim is a smooth transition to distance learning, to allow continuity of learning during any future disruption in school operations. return to table of contents

We should avoid flattening the curve in education – Possible scenarios for learning loss during the school lockdowns SYEDAH AROOB IQBAL | JOAO PEDRO AZEVEDO | KOEN GEVEN | AMER HASAN | HARRY A. PATRINOS | APRIL 13, 2020

Social distancing has been a necessary strategy to reduce the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), leading most countries to close their school systems. But with 1.5 billion children out of school in 175 countries (as of April 10), there are more and more concerns about the longerterm effects on learning. The world was already in a learning crisis, and the ongoing emergency will put further strain on hard-won gains in learning. In our ongoing work simulating these effects, we propose to think about the effects that school closures will have on the “learning curve.” Doing this will help us focus on the poorest and worst-off students, and to design better mitigation strategies that are in the best interest of children.

Learning curves are typically drawn by the makers of national assessments (such as National Assessment of Educational Progress - NAEP) or international ones (such as Programme for International Student Assessment - PISA, Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study - TIMSS, or Progress in International Reading Literacy Study - PIRLS). The average scores (represented by the top) of these curves are probably most famous, because averages are often used to rank countries. But there is a lot more that we can learn from these curves. The width of

the curve (i.e., the standard deviation), for instance, is one of the indicators of inequality within school systems. Another very important feature of these curves is that they can be used to rank students based on proficiency levels.

Over the last few years, a lot of effort has gone into making learning curves more comparable with regards to the bottom rank of performers, or kids reaching only minimum proficiency.

(Students falling below minimum proficiency are displayed as the grey area to the left of the red dashed line). Last year, the World Bank committed to focus on the “learning poor” – the students below the minimum proficiency level who cannot read and understand a basic text by age 10.

We are concerned about this group, because children who do not learn to read early enough often fail to thrive later in school or when they join the workforce.

Figure 1 – Three possible scenarios of how the learning curve may evolve in the coming months: a lower average, a higher standard deviation, or a sharp increase in low learning at the bottom.

In our ongoing work, we are looking at three possible scenarios for the learning curve, which may substantially affect the levels of learning in countries with school closures. Each scenario is caused by a different mechanism that is affecting students right now. The first is the most straightforward transformation, which is caused by a reduction in average learning levels across the distribution (the blue curve). This is an extremely likely scenario despite the best efforts of school systems to offer distance learning. Variation in instructional time is associated with learning loss. Previous crises such as the 2008-09 recession had a substantial negative effect on learning, particularly in districts with higher proportions of disadvantaged and minority children.

There is also evidence that shocks like floods substantially affect learning outcomes across grade levels. Children who are not in school learn less, despite the best intentions of distance education and home schoolers.

Secondly, consider how the curve may flatten (or skew) due to highly unequal effects of the crisis (the purple curve). This is a scenario in which children who are at the top will pull ahead, while students at the bottom fall further behind. Even if the virus does not care whether you are rich or poor, the rich are much better placed to mitigate its effects. Wealthier families are in comfortable homes, have good internet connections, can hire a private tutor, and may be better placed for home schooling by well-educated parents. Poor families, especially the extreme poor, live in inferior homes, may not have even a radio let alone internet connection or digital gadgets, don’t have the resources to hire a tutor, and will struggle to keep up with their children’s homework. The bottom of the income distribution may also see a sharp increase in poverty from

lack of opportunities to work, or from unemployment. In this scenario, the wealthy will pull ahead, and the poor will fall further behind.

Thirdly, consider how the curve may change due to dropouts (the green population that is now permanently out of school). We have learned from earlier crises, such as the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and the 1916 polio pandemic, that school enrolment can fall sharply, due to both demand and supply side effects. On the demand side, the income shock leads families to ask their children to work, and they never go back to school. We are particularly concerned about girls, given that they are usually the first to be withdrawn from school. On the supply side, we might see increased numbers of school closures. Governments will be cash strapped, as the global economic system is taking a hit. This may lead ministries of education to furlough teachers and to close or merge schools. Also, many countries have expanded schooling through low-fee private schools. These schools are typically operated on tiny margins, and we don’t know if they will survive this crisis.

It will take time to know how large the effects of the COVID-19 crisis will be. But we cannot wait that long to act, and thus we are simulating the impact on learning now. Building on existing evidence of the effect of crises of learning, and our databases such as the Harmonized Learning Outcomes and the Learning Poverty dataset, we will model how the curve will evolve if we do not take appropriate action. We will look at different scenarios like the ones depicted above, and how different mitigation strategies might help.

We are not powerless to influence the learning curve.

This will be a living document. As results and new forecasts become available, we will update this blog, and try to assess how this emergency is unfolding. In the meantime, please supply us with your thoughts and projects, or let us know if there is something specific you would like us to estimate. return to table of contents

Supporting the youngest learners and their families in the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) response AMANDA DEVERCELLI | APRIL 16, 2020

As we mobilize, the needs of young children must be a priority. Under-investing in early childhood now would be a mistake

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to school closures in nearly every country in the world, putting approximately 1.5 billion children and youth out of school. For many countries, a learning crisis existed before the coronavirus pandemic, with an estimated 260 million children out of school, and 53% of ten-year-olds who are in school in low- and middle-income countries living in learning poverty, unable to read and understand a simple text. The world can ill-afford further deterioration of children’s learning. Governments are springing to action to roll out remote learning through various channels to try and reach children at home and at the World Bank, we are working closely with our government counterparts to make smart investments to support children’s learning in new and innovative ways.

This time- while full of immense challenges- also offers us some opportunities. And one opportunity is to expand access to early learning. Around the world, only about half of children are enrolled in preschool and in low-income countries it is just 21%. This is an enormous missed opportunity, given what we know about how important access to quality early learning can be to set young children on a brighter path to lifelong learning. As ministries of education work to expand access to learning through a variety of different methods, we need to ensure that early childhood education is included within these efforts.

As the global COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold, young children will be especially vulnerable – so in addition to early childhood education, we need to ensure efforts to promote holistic early childhood development (ECD). The brain matures faster than at any other time and is the most malleable it will ever be in a child’s first five years – these early years are a critical period to get children the care, nutrition, health and stimulation and learning opportunities we know they need to succeed in school and grow up to be healthy and productive adults.

Unfortunately, we know that the youngest children will be the most vulnerable during this crisis.

We know from the Ebola crisis, that young children are more likely to experience violence, abuse and neglect during pandemics as families struggle to cope. Young children are highly vulnerable in times of shock because services to support them are often informal and outside of the system and risk being overlooked. Already scarce resources will likely be diverted to the pandemic response and there is a real risk that services to promote better ECD outcomes will be considered less urgent in the current environment.

We can reach young children by supporting their parents and caregivers. The unique nature of the pandemic places parents as the first-line responders for children’s survival, care and learning. Therefore, efforts to reach young children need to begin by reaching parents with support, encouragement and practical, actionable ideas to support their children in this time of crisis. Even in the lowest-resource settings, in extreme deprivation, there are actions parents can take to protect and promote their children’s development.

At the World Bank, we are working across sectors to support government efforts to reach young children and their families and to ensure that ECD is a priority within the response. This week we have released these two very simple guidance notes, laying out 15 Ways to Support Young Children and their Families in the COVID-19 Response and Investing in the Early Years During COVID-19. These notes share ideas to use platforms that exist across sectors to promote better ECD outcomes, drawn from evidence-based approaches and programs that have worked in a range of countries.

•

•

•

In Kenya, the Emerge Reading Program distributes books in local languages and encourages parents to read at home with their children; the program has successfully increased children’s vocabulary and resulted in children being read to more frequently, with the biggest increase in reading frequency among illiterate caregivers, who used pictures to tell a story.

The RISE Interactive Audio Instruction Program in Zanzibar has delivered long-lasting impact on young children’s learning, including initial significant positive impacts on children’s English, Kiswahili and math skills, for children participating in the program in both formal and informal settings. Children who attended the RISE program show sustained higher mastery of grade level concepts six years later (compared to a control group). This program is managed by the eLearning Division within the Ministry of Education in Zanzibar and has been integrated into the annual budget.

Educational entertainment programs to promote early learning are delivering results around the world, including Sesame Workshop programs in more than 15 countries and Ubongo TV programs in East Africa.

•

•

Cash transfer programs coupled with information and behavior change efforts to help parents support their children’s development have yielded positive impacts in many countries, including increasing preschool enrollment in Uganda , and improving cognitive outcomes in Colombia and Mexico.

A text message program in rural Ecuador relays information and encouragement to parents on ECD and has successfully improved health and nutrition outcomes.

World Bank teams can work with client countries to support young children and families at this time by leveraging a range of interventions and mechanisms that will be part of the COVID-19 response in every country as the Bank works with governments to make more than $100 billion in emergency funding available to fight this emergency. As we mobilize, the needs of young children must be prioritized.

15 ways to support young children and families in the COVID-19 response 1. Emergency food delivery, including micronutrient and ready-to-use therapeutic food supplements for pregnant women and young children.

2. Provide pregnant women/new mothers counselling on health/breastfeeding/care during COVID-19.

3. Use health and nutrition platforms to deliver messages on coping, parenting and early stimulation 4. Promote family handwashing and hygiene, particularly in low-resource environments.

5. Targeted childcare and psychosocial support for essential workers on the frontline of the crisis.

6. Distribute books, learning and play materials to homes or through community resource drops.

7. Integrate early childhood education (ECE) into basic education distance learning programs.

8. Educational entertainment for young children delivered through radio/TV/internet/social media.

9. As schools re-open: Ensure ECE is included in mass re-enrollment campaigns, implement accelerated learning programs for young children, introduce hygiene protocols that include young children.

10. Expand cash transfers, child grants and social safety nets to deliver information and resources to promote ECD. 11. Support parents with coping, stress management and parenting strategies delivered via phones/radio/TV/internet/social media.

12. Train/provide information to frontline workers to identify/respond to child protection and mental health issues.

13. Set up support services for women and children experiencing domestic violence and abuse.

14. Ensure information campaigns integrate key messages to promote ECD and nurturing care, related to nutrition, health, stimulation and learning, violence prevention and psychosocial support.

15. Agriculture extension programs offer opportunities to reach young children and families with services and information.

Under-investing in early childhood now would be a mistake with life-long consequences for children and dramatic impacts on countries’ human capital in the future. return to table of contents

Tackling inequity in education during and after COVID-19 HANNA ALASUUTARI | APRIL 20, 2020

Learning has been disrupted for more than 1.5 billion children and youth by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Most students around the world are out of school and using remote learning programs, through the internet, TV, or radio or combination of these, if they are available. Inequity in access to the internet, data packages, and devices to support remote continuity of education for all learners has become clearly evident, but the specific risks that this pandemic poses to marginalized students, especially students with disabilities or diverse/special educational needs are essentially sidelined.

Those who were marginalized before the pandemic, are now even more at risk. Intersectionality with poverty, gender, ethnicity, age, disability or other identities can result in multiple forms of discrimination and exclusion. That is why efforts in health, social protection, education, and other sectors must take everyone into account when tackling the pandemic to ensure continuity

of safe and inclusive services to all. Acknowledging this and taking bold action now to bridge the growing inequity and the digital divide is critical for the future.

This infographic and the questions below outline what countries should pay close attention to when responding to COVID19 crisis: 1.

How to keep all students and communities safe?

The pandemic has forced countries and communities worldwide to close their schools. Remote learning opportunities might not be available or accessible for all students, and a variety of communication channels and methods need to be utilized, ensuring that educational content is shared in local and minority languages, including sign languages, using captions, audio provision and graphics.

School closures have led to the loss of routine and supervision. In addition, access to services like meals, support provided by resource personnel or assistive technologies are no longer there, and social and child protection services have mostly closed. At the same time, domestic violence has been on the rise. In this situation, those who are most vulnerable will suffer the most. It is important that these challenges are addressed to avoid increase in stigma and marginalization of children, girls and persons with disabilities.

Once students, teachers and other school staff return to school, it is essential that health and safety is restored with improved health and sanitation practices followed in an inclusive manner with facilities, information and communication accessible for all students and staff. Demand for socio-emotional support and counseling services is high now and will only continue to increase as the well-being of teachers and students needs to take center stage.

2.

How to ensure accessibility and reasonable accommodations of remote learning?

It is critical that all learners have access to a curriculum following the principles of Universal Design for Learning, with reasonable accommodations and differentiation both now and after returning to school.

The forthcoming 2020 Global Education Monitoring report, Inclusion and education: All means all, outlines that the available technology allows students with print disabilities to use online study materials in different formats like converting texts to audio or Braille characters. However, not many education systems use the available assistive, cost-effective technologies for all students, or consider resources such as Bookshare and the Global Digital Library, which can support students with print disabilities or provide a checklist when planning educational services for learners using sign-language.

A few countries, such as Finland, South Africa, and the United Kingdom, have considered learners with disabilities or diverse/special educational needs in their COVID19 response, ensuring that some support services are available during the crisis. The pandemic presents an opportunity to ensure that remote learning is accessible for all and that some more individualized support is available. This will be helpful in future crisis situations and in efforts to address the needs of those who are at risk of not returning to school after they re-open.

3.

How to support parents in engaging with their children, including children with disabilities?

It is critical to engage parents’ and caregivers’ engagement in provision of remote learning.

Structure helps but can be difficult to follow when parents and caregivers juggle multiple responsibilities at home. Parents and caregivers of students with disabilities and diverse learning needs may struggle even more and need support and resources to help their children learn. Many parents look for support from teachers, while some may rely on their communities when support services provided at school are no longer available. The crisis creates opportunities for parents and school staff to collaborate more to ensure the well-being and learning of all students going forward.

4.

How to ensure that teachers support learning of all students?

Education systems need to keep teachers and school leadership engaged and working during the COVID-19 crisis to ensure continuity of education services. Teachers play an essential role in inclusive education, and it is important that they learn about inclusive pedagogy. There will always be students who need more intensive or individualized support. Hence it is important to educate some teachers so they become experts in these more individualized approaches and can provide effective support to other teachers and learners within general education classrooms. This resource staff or special education teachers will play a critical role going forward supporting other teachers after the crisis.

In countries where formal training for teachers and other services and resources are scarce, there may be other resources — like community members, parents, caregivers, or nongovernmental organizations — who could become partners in supporting inclusive education.

Responding to the COVID-19 crisis and recovering from it calls for an inclusive approach, which takes care of all learners, inclusive of children and youth with disabilities and other marginalized learners. Emerging with more inclusive education systems can support all learners in getting back on track both now and after the crisis. return to table of contents

Successful examples of scaling up teaching and learning in response to COVID-19 CRISTOBAL COBO | INAKI SANCHEZ CIARRUSTA | APRIL 22, 2020

Little girl on computer in Latin America

In a crisis, inequalities are likely to widen. What the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has made evident is the gap between education systems that already have a robust platform of solutions to deliver remote learning and those that don’t. These gaps highlight the disparities in access to electricity, the internet, and devices. While those are considered to be the main challenges, there is a whole set of additional gaps that become evident even when the basic infrastructure is available.

First, COVID-19 has exposed a large digital gap in how to use technology in a pedagogically meaningful way to enhance teaching and learning. Additionally, we see the school digital gap that distinguishes between education institutions that are simply content suppliers and those that can maximize learning by offering much more than access to educational materials (online and via radio or TV). The latter gap highlights whether a school has the capacity to offer well planned and carefully selected sequences of digital learning, along with appropriate monitoring mechanisms. The emphasis should be not only on the delivery of resources but also on generating engagement and active feedback – a situation where, instead of simply maximizing the time online, educators prioritize the quality of the learning experience.

The actions to minimize the impact of school closures can be planned as short-term (emergency mode) or mid- and long-term solutions (allowing resilience, recovery, and reform of the education system). However, in low-resource environments, the emergency action often ends up being the de facto solution. Why wouldn’t education systems adopting proven solutions that can not

only minimize the consequences of COVID-19, but also build better infrastructure for education in the future?

The three examples below illustrate how to reduce the current and (potentially) future learning inequalities. These country experiences are organized into three categories: content curation and classification; scalable technologies; and digital pedagogies.

Crowdsourced content, curation and classification: The Spanish Ministry of Education, through The National Institute of Educational Technologies and Teacher Training (INTEF) in partnership with the Spanish Radio and Television Corporation (RTVE), and in collaboration with different publishers, collated in record time a comprehensive selection of educational resources, for broadcast on television and available online. The key steps were: 1) Leveraging content that already exists rather than creating new content. As a quick first step, the Spanish team aggregated all the educational content already made available by the administration. Then major publishers were invited to share their educational materials (mainly short videos). In addition, digital learning resources were collected from other sources such as social media (videos from popular YouTuber teachers).

2) Classifying and categorizing resources. Two teams of educators (for primary and secondary) revised, selected, and validated the resources. This process not only focused on the usefulness of the resources but also aligned them with the national plan (structured by age and subject). Given the emergency circumstances, and the need to act fast, flexible quality controls were applied.

3) Multi-channel sharing of resources. Educational resources are now broadcast five hours every day via public TV (three hours in “Educlan” and two in “La 2”, from RTVE) and online (on demand). Learners (and teachers), can either watch television at the times that match their age and grade, or can access these resources online.

So far, the results are very promising. Almost 40% of the students between ages of 6 and 10 are watching Educlan, doubling and tripling the channel’s audience.

One of the key lessons learned is that constant communication is essential: public and private institutions are in constant contact with each other and with the communities of educators and associations (who are providing additional resources). The next steps will be to fill the gaps by producing specific content that is missing and reinforce the interaction with and participation of students.

More information in the podcast where the Spanish team shares their experience (download here).

Scalable technologies to reach everyone: For over 50 years, Mexico has promoted educational television (Telesecundaria), offering remote learning through satellite television benefiting multi-grade schools. The pedagogical model combines short educational videos (5 to 30 minutes), supported by sessions using lesson plans and learning materials. The Telesecundaria model has been different from other teaching models because a teacher teaches all the subjects in each grade, like in elementary school but with videos.

Telesecundaria reaches 21.4% of the total secondary enrollment in Mexico (1.3 million students and 72,000 teachers). This modality is especially effective for communities that don’t have regular access to the internet, empowering remote, rural and marginalized populations. Now it is also being used by learners in other countries across Central America and in the United States and Canada.

To face the current crisis the Mexican Ministry of Education announced that it will extend the tele-lectures from preschool, primary, secondary, all the way to the tertiary level. The multimedia materials are structured by content types and by subjects and are broadcast via free and cable television (also online). The program also includes materials for teachers and parents. Telesecundaria has been used by a partner organization that is broadcasting these lessons via satellite to reach other Spanish-speaking countries.

Flexible digital pedagogies: Since 2012 Uruguay has adopted an innovative model integrating live remote teaching of English as a second language, known as Ceibal en InglĂŠs. English is taught in state schools through videoconferencing. The project involves a remote teacher and a classroom teacher.

Each week the students connect with a remote teacher who teaches their classes via videoconference. Twice a week, students work on assignments using an online learning platform. This initiative was implemented in partnership between the government of Uruguay and the British Council. It reaches 80,000 children in grades 4-6 and over 17,000 students in grades 7-12. The results are promising – kids do perform better in national English exams.

During the crisis, the program has been adapted to the new circumstances. A combination of short videos and follow-up activities are completed on a weekly basis using the national online learning platform. Remote teachers work with students using different platforms to interact.

These adaptations are not limited to just the telepresence tools. Now educators are adapting the content into targets that learners need to achieve. The next step is to adapt the lesson plans to the new situation, making sure that in addition to having access to content, learning is also about exchanges, interactions and human connections.

More information: download podcast.

These examples show that it is critical to design scalable EdTech solutions that can offer a good balance between the provision of educational materials, access to multichannel mechanisms, and constant support to enrich the teaching and learning experience. Countries are adopting flexible strategies to maintain learning in this new normal. Appropriate support and monitoring

will be critical to ensure that the innovations implemented are not only in the delivery of content but also in enriching the learning experience. This will help address the crisis, but also create resilient institutional capacities to face future challenges.

For more useful resources prepared by the World Bank's EdTech team, visit the Remote Learning, EdTech & COVID-19 site.

Special thanks to Emanuela Di Gropello, Robert J. Hawkins, and Helena Rovner for the feedback and support. return to table of contents

Educational television during COVID-19: How to start and what to consider SHARON ZACHARIA | ALEX TWINOMUGISHA | APRIL 24, 2020

Students of Tamil Nadu (India) watching state-owned ‘Kalvi Tholaikatchi’ (educational television)

Countries around the world have responded to coronavirus (COVID19) driven school closures by adopting remote learning approaches, with many deploying online learning programs. However, online learning has exposed deep digital divides between and within countries, including highincome countries. The situation is far worse for lower resource environments in middle- andlow-income countries with Internet penetration rates typically less than 50% and a large share of students without devices to enable online learning at home. Countries are therefore turning to television to significantly increase access to remote learning.

Low- and middle-income countries have been using education television since the 1950s including interactive television lessons more recently. The World Bank’s EdTech team has catalogued examples of education television being used by countries during COVID-19 and has developed a rapid response guidance note on using educational television programming during school closures. This blog summarizes five key insights on starting, using and sustaining education television for remote learning, corroborated by more than 40 current examples from countries.

Five key things to get started 1. Use a mix of live broadcasts, pre-recorded (on demand) content and edutainment programs.

Broadcasting live lessons in mock classroom settings is the fastest way to get started for countries with limited or no education television experience (e.g. Morocco, Spain, South Africa).

Broadcasting existing pre-recorded material (possibly available as on-demand content) from private and non-profit organisations (e.g. Khan Academy) is a useful option for countries with existing educational television programs (e.g. Croatia, Spain). Edutainment programs that provide education in the form of entertainment is another useful source for programming.

Developing these as a short-term response to COVID-19 is not advised. Instead, consider sourcing, curating and obtaining intellectual property rights for existing content from local or international sources (e.g. Ubongo used in 33 African countries, Sesame Workshop used in 40 countries).

2. Identify channels for broadcasting programs.

Some countries have existing national education television networks with a wide reach. For those without this, partnering with state television networks is a quick-start solution. Morocco’s national channel dedicated to sports is now being used to broadcast educational television as well. Partnering with private broadcasters can further amplify the reach of this programming across communities and allow simultaneous broadcasts for students across grade levels (e.g. Mexico). Rebroadcasted content is another way to amplify its reach using livestreaming or as on-demand content (e.g. Kenya uses YouTube, Pakistan uses an app).

3. Develop schedules for educational television programming.

Broadcast schedules must clarify where and when such broadcasting can be accessed. Some countries are providing student-friendly daily and weekly schedules on their education ministry’s website (e.g. Mongolia), some on their education television network websites (e.g. China, India) and some on institutional websites (e.g. Kenya).

4. Develop a communication strategy and communicate regularly.

Continuously communicating during this period is pivotal to the success of such programming.

Communicate before launching the programming (e.g. Brazil, West Bank and Gaza). To amplify awareness, communicate schedules continuously and widely using every available media including television, radio, mobile phone via text messages or WhatsApp (e.g. Peru), social media like Facebook (e.g. Rwanda) and websites of education ministries and education television networks (e.g. Korea). Organizing all programming related resources in one place makes it easier to access them and increases uptake. This can be done on the education ministry website, national television network website, etc. (e.g. India, Nigeria, Uganda).

5. Provide support for students, parents and educators.

Throughout this programming, students, parents/caregivers and educators will require technical support (e.g. toll-free helplines or low cost chatbots can be employed), pedagogical support and socio-emotional support (e.g. Spain). Teachers can be mobilized to provide this (e.g. China).

Education television can be made more interactive by answering questions during lessons.

Questions can be collected by phone calls, text messages, email or social media, and answered during live lesson recordings. Keep multiple communication channels open (e.g. Jamaica has 36 helplines) and encourage feedback to improve the programming (e.g. China, Russia).

Five additional things to consider 1. Connect and learn from other countries. These can be countries with a history of using educational television (eg. Brazil, China, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Mexico) or have longer experiences using television to respond to school closures (e.g. Korea).

2. Content used during COVID-19 closures can be reused when schools reopen and to reach out-of-school children. Video has one great advantage – students can review the content multiple times, thereby possibly increasing its effectiveness. Archive all the education television programming on online platforms (e.g. education television website, YouTube) and reuse them for regular school lessons and to reach out-of-school children (eg. Mexico).

3. Compliment television with expanded access to the Internet and devices. This can amplify the reach, impact and effectiveness of this television programming as well as related communication including, program schedules and support. This is possible even with limited Internet connectivity (e.g. text messages, WhatsApp) and simple devices.

Access to digital platforms that host this education programming can be zero-rated (eg.

Ghana, Korea, Qatar). Partner with Internet service providers to provide free internet access to online learning platforms (e.g. Kenya, Rwanda, Nigeria). Ministries and schools can loan out devices to students (e.g. Saudi Arabia).

4. Consider supplementary actions like text messages and print material. Supplementing television programming using print material like workbooks, written homework or newspaper-based activities can improve its effectiveness (e.g. Bangladesh). Text-messages can be used to ‘nudge’ parents/caregivers, students and educators with reminders to – use this programming, share feedback or adopt ‘good practices’ that supplement the effectiveness of this programming. Note that too much nudging can defeat the purpose.

5. Consider diversity, equity and inclusion. Varied expertise can add diversity to this programming, say, by bringing in musicians, chefs or photographers to support teachers in providing real-life lessons to students (e.g. Argentina). Inclusiveness can be achieved through lesson presenters being women as well as men, teachers with handicaps or people from different ethnic/cultural groups.

Special thanks to Michael Trucano, Robert Hawkins, Cristóbal Cobo and Iñaki Sánchez for their feedback and resources.

Sharon Zacharia and Alex Twinomugisha are core members of the World Bank’s Global EdTech team. If you wish to share examples of related on-going actions taken by countries, please share them in the comments below. return to table of contents

Are students still learning during COVID-19?

Formative assessment can provide the answer JULIA LIBERMAN | VICTORIA LEVIN | DIEGO LUNA-BAZALDUA | APRIL 27, 2020

Students studying in a classroom in Armenia

As schools around the world have closed due to coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic (and many have extended closures for the remainder of the school year), students, teachers, and parents are settling into the "new reality" for the foreseeable future. Many schools are implementing their distance learning contingency plans (some of them put together recently), and connecting students and teachers through online platforms and tools. National and local governments are partnering with broadcasting service providers to deliver educational content via television and radio during dedicated hours. Under these unexpected circumstances, teachers and parents have had to quickly adapt to teaching in this new reality to ensure that students engage in learning.

What are the learning assessment challenges and priorities in the current context?

Assessment of student learning is "the process of gathering and evaluating information on what students know, understand, and can do in order to make an informed decision about the next steps in the educational process." (See What Matters Most for Student Assessment Systems: A Framework Paper). Learning assessment is a fundamental feedback mechanism in education, allowing all stakeholders of the learning process to understand what is being learned and where learning resources need to be focused. Assessment may take different modalities depending on its purpose. Along with high-stakes examinations and large-scale assessments, formative assessment is, under normal circumstances, carried out by teachers in the classroom as part of the teaching process and encompasses everything from teacher

observation to continuous feedback to homework. Formative assessment is particularly relevant to understand the learning needs of each and every student and to adjust instruction accordingly. In addition, teachers usually implement summative assessments whereby specific educational content is reviewed to determine the extent to which students reached the expected learning goals and acquired critical knowledge and skills.

Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, all modalities of learning assessment had been strongly dependent on students' physical presence – either for administration or for observing the learners' daily progress. Current school closures necessitate development of alternative approaches to delivering the critical feedback function of learning assessment. While all types of assessment of student learning are important, the need for formative assessment right now is particularly critical because learning needs to take place outside of the physical classroom, and teachers and parents-turned-teachers need to understand whether students are absorbing the content that is delivered to them in formats that differ from business-as-usual.

How can formative assessment support learning in the context of school closures?

Formative assessment can be administered in synchronous and asynchronous forms. In the synchronous form, where the teacher and the student are working together at the same time (via online platforms like Zoom and Microsoft Teams), as well as directly by phone, teachers can provide feedback to students in real time. The United States has a history of combining TV instruction with synchronous phone-based connection between learners and teachers. In the 1990s, the Los Angeles Unified School District in California worked with the local TV channel to produce "Homework Hotline," an educational TV program that was paired with teachers connecting to students using a toll-free number.

In the asynchronous form, where students and teachers are separated by both space and time, online tools such as Google Classrooms and Moodle can help teachers to provide feedback to students through questions, tasks, activities, and quizzes. Various online applications such as Recap: Video Response and Reflection for Education, WURRLYedu, and Screencastify can be used to record performance tasks created by students and shared with teachers. Especially for younger students, parents also need specific guidance on how to communicate the results of formative assessment to teachers. These instructions should be made available in electronic and/or printed form and emailed or mailed to homes or made available for pickup from the school or other designated location.

Even in low-resource and low-connectivity contexts, formative assessment can happen during school closures. Teachers can provide feedback to students through mailed or emailed instructions and tasks. Messaging platforms (such as Messenger and WhatsApp) can also be used: companies are making available solutions that allow teachers to design, deliver, and track multiple-choice and short answer assessments through text messaging. In the United States, when Florida issued stay-at-home guidance, Miami-Dade County Public Schools moved the physical distance learning helpline center that had been created at the start of the school closures to a virtual format, with questions from students, teachers, parents, and administrators on learning content and technical issues being routed, via a software program, to the computers of content-area and information technology experts.

Direct phone calls between teachers, students, and parents can also be utilized even under lockdowns. "Homework hotlines" have been used in several states prior to COVID-19 to provide feedback to students and parents, and they have expanded in some locations during COVID-19 to support learning. This has been done in Tennessee, where dedicated local phone numbers connect students and parents to certified teachers who provide support in many school subjects in English and in six other languages, in Kansas, and in Michigan, with the latter also providing mental counseling and emotional support as well as support for students with disabilities and/or special/diverse educational needs through a toll-free phone number. In addition, homework hotlines have been created to support students with print disabilities during COVID-19, as demonstrated by National Homework Hotline for Blind/Visually Impaired Students (NHH-BVI).

Irrespective of how formative assessment is communicated, it needs to be valid, timely, constructive, and specific to the learning needs of the child. The validity element is linked to the alignment of assessment content with the knowledge content the student should have acquired as part of the learning process. The timeliness aspect refers to the opportune use of the assessment to take quick action and provide remedial support if needed.

The constructiveness element refers to the assessment's capacity to deliver feedback to the student and for the student to gain information that helps him or her identify misunderstandings, get guidance on how to improve, and understand the goals of the learning process. Finally, the specificity of formative assessment implies its ability to inform teachers and students about whether specific learning goals are being reached, and what is needed in case they are not there yet. Teachers and parents need to be empowered with resources and means to conduct formative assessment in line with these elements, even in low-resource environments.

Various resources can be used by teachers and parents to support formative assessment in the context of COVID-19, and companies are making their tools more available to a broad range of users during this time (however, in choosing any specific tool, it is important to check the contract terms and confirm that the its use is in line with all applicable laws and regulations).

Some examples of applications for formative assessment use include DreamBox Math (which provides math instruction based on performance and enables teachers to create targeted activities using the AssignFocus option), Questbase (a free online tool to create quizzes compatible with most browsers and IOS), and Woot Math (a free application that automatically generates and assesses thousands of problems to meet each student's learning needs). In lowresource contexts, where connectivity and access to smart devices cannot be taken for granted, printed materials can be developed to support early reading skills for younger children, and to provide support for teachers and families.

Even though in many places it is currently not possible for teachers and students to come together in the same space, it is necessary for teaching and learning to continue to avoid learning losses and to stay on track in decreasing learning poverty. Formative assessment can help all students to continue along their learning trajectory, providing them, their parents, and their teachers with the necessary information to support the learning process, albeit from a distance. return to table of contents

Innovation in responding to coronavirus could pave the way for better learning outcomes in MENA KALIOPE AZZI-HUCK | ANDREAS BLOM | MAY BEND | APRIL 29, 2020

Students in Lebanon are participating in distance learning. (Photo credit: Nadine Franji)

As the COVID-19 global pandemic has swept across the globe in recent weeks, countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have not been spared. In an effort to curb the spread of infections, governments across the region began restricting movements and closing schools in early March. Today, educational institutions remain shuttered and over 100 million students are out of the classroom.

Preliminary modeling projections point to a drop in learning outcomes, similar to what’s been documented in schooling analyses that show as much as one third of school-year learning is lost over the summer break. In a region that boasts the highest education intergenerational mobility in the world, schooling is serious and steeped in building knowledge for high-stakes exams that can make or break life-long ambitions.

To mitigate the impact of school closures, learning in MENA has gone virtual, moving online where connectivity can be established, and using television, radio, and paper-based approaches where internet access is limited. Countries like Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Morocco are among those leading the charge, employing multi-modal approaches and building innovative partnerships overnight to deliver learning in a new environment.

Photo credit: Nadine Franji

The process has not been easy and the transition is far from seamless. Across the region, telecom infrastructure is inconsistent. A number of households still do not have laptops, tablets, or smartphones accessible to students for regular learning. Teachers have had little or no time to acclimate to new teaching tools and are now creating curricula and structuring remote classes. They are finding it difficult to engage and assess students remotely. The learning environment has shifted for parents, as well, many of whom were deputized overnight as homeschoolers in systems with which they may not be familiar.

Despite these inconveniences, these efforts have the potential to expand the flexibility of delivery education in MENA. Here are some examples of how: 1. Homegrown innovations are becoming mainstream tools. Education technologies (edtech), largely considered supplemental add-ons to teaching, are on the rise. Mobile apps like Rawy Kids from Egypt or Kitabi Book Reader from Lebanon, or Sho'lah, and Loujee — "smart" Arabic toys aimed at learning-through-play (Arab News 2016) have emerged as useful tools introducing students to different means of learning.

2. A stronger move towards cross-collaboration. Collaborations between ministries and service providers, across private entities and countries, have proliferated in recent weeks, delivering a collective greater good. In Jordan, an education portal called "Darsak" was

developed through a partnership between the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Digital Economy and Entrepreneurship, and a private enterprise called Mawdoo3. The content, in the form of lessons tied directly to the Jordanian curriculum, was crowdsourced from a number of educational organizations including Edraak, Jo Academy and Abwab. The result is a one-stop-shop that delivers weekly-scheduled classes for all grades.

In a show of cross-country collaboration, Egypt is granting users from neighboring countries access to the Egyptian Knowledge Bank (through study.ekb), an online government library housing resources like K-12 grade lessons for educators, researchers, and students. In both Egypt and Morocco, authorities have successfully negotiated a partnership with telecom enterprises allowing access of their educational platforms to all students without internet or data fees.

In Lebanon, the Beirut Digital District Academy has teamed up with the World Bank Skilling UP Mashreq Project and Code.org to offer free coding courses in English, French and Arabic to students ages 6 to 18 across the country.

3. New ways of coaching, teaching, and learning are showing the potential to close the inequity gap. In Lebanon, the Ministry of Education and Higher Education is training teachers in the use of Microsoft Teams to run online classes, receive and share information, and offer support. Coaching of teachers, normally carried out face-to-face, is moving online, allowing teachers in hard-to-reach areas to benefit equally as those in metropolitan, more accessible locations.

4. Learning by doing in the virtual world is reaching new frontiers. Without regular realtime instructional support, students are increasingly using multiple sources for understanding new concepts, and relying on teachers as coaches, rather than instructors.

In essence, this is the critical thinking approach to learning that has been long overdue in MENA — a new framework for education structured to deliver 21st century skills and lifelong learning for its graduates to compete in tomorrow’s economies.

While it remains to be seen when some countries will reopen and when it will be safe to bring students back to schools, these developments are signs that education delivery could change for the long-term. In MENA, these changes should be welcomed. return to table of contents

The COVID-19 cost of school closures GEORGE PSACHAROPOULOS | HARRY A. PATRINOS | VICTORIA COLLIS | EMILIANA VEGAS | APRIL 30, 2020

Empty classroom

In mid-April, UNESCO reported 192 countries had closed all schools and universities, affecting more than 90 percent of the world’s learners: almost 1.6 billion children and young people.

While some governments are starting to order teachers and students back to work, education— one of the most important drivers in human capital investment—continues to be largely closed for business.

How long schools will remain closed, how student learning will be affected, and how greatly this will affect the poorest and most vulnerable populations remain difficult to say. We do not yet know enough about what happens next. Questions range from whether it is possible for recovered patients to be reinfected to how long it will take to develop, license, and distribute a viable vaccine. But we do know that learning will indeed be lost, and that those losses will not likely be evenly distributed.

When children lose out on education, they lose out on future opportunities including economic benefits, such as additional earnings, with far-reaching consequences. Some modeling suggests that the loss of learning during the extraordinary systemic crisis of World War II still had negative impact on former students’ lives some 40 years later. And neither is the impact of lost learning confined to the individual level: For whole societies closing down education today, there will likely be significant consequences tomorrow.

With this in mind, we have developed preliminary evidence to estimate projected potential losses of future earnings as a result of the current school closures. We present this as a starting

point to help governments make increasingly informed choices about school closures, and to start a global debate on controlling and mitigating the economic downward spiral that COVID-19 is already creating.

PROJECTED FUTURE EARNINGS LOSSES ON STUDENTS AND THE ECONOMY In presenting these findings, we emphasize their status as the start, rather than the culmination, of an analytical process. There are complicating considerations we have identified, including the uneven quality of learning, differences in provision of effective distance learning, and other pressures that will come to bear on some children, such as the need to find work to help support their families. There are likely more we have not yet considered, but we anticipate others will provide them through comments and discussion around this blog. For now, we simply seek to sound the alarm about the scale of the sacrifice young people are being forced to make.

We begin by assuming that every additional year of schooling equates to 10 percent in additional future earnings. We then use the number of months of education closures to estimate the loss in marginal future earnings. For example, if Country X closes its schools and universities for four months, the loss in marginal future earnings would be 2.5 percent per year over a student’s working life. We apply this assumption to the world’s largest economy, the United States of America and its 76 million students, as our starting point. We model on a 45-year working life, a discount rate of 3 percent, and mean annual earnings of $53,490.

This quick estimate suggests lost earnings of $1,337 per year per student: a present value loss of earnings of $33,464 (63 percent of a year’s salary at current average wage rates). While this may not sound like too much of an individual price for young people to pay in the fight against COVID-19, a look at the impact on the whole of the country is much more sobering.

In this model, the cost to the United States in future earnings of four months of lost education is $2.5 trillion—12.7 percent of annual GDP. And with well over half the country’s states deciding to keep schools and universities closed until the fall at the earliest, much of this loss may well materialize.

Extrapolating to the global level, on the basis that the U.S. economy represents about one-quarter of global output, these data suggest the world could lose as much as $10 trillion over the coming generation as a result of school closures today.

These figures are preliminary, and the current model simple. But they raise important questions for further investigation, including these three we hope to shed further light on in the coming weeks: 1. How does the projected loss of future earnings and the severity of its impact on young people’s prospects differ between rich and poor countries?

2. Within countries, which groups of children and young people are likely to suffer most from the economic impact of lost learning and access to education?

3. How does the sacrifice being made by young people as a result of lost education compare with that being made by other parts of the population?

The scale of economic damage likely already stored up due to lost learning indicates the care with which governments should plan their next policy moves. Like so many aspects of this pandemic, the impact on children and young people seems more likely to take the form of a long crisis rather than a short, sharp shock.

This blog first appeared on Brookings’ Education Plus Development blog | return to table of contents

COVID-19’s immense impact on equity in tertiary education ROBERTA MALEE BASSETT | NINA ARNHOLD | APRIL 30, 2020

Students on their graduation

As the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has spread across the globe, it has hit hardest in many of the global centers of tertiary education. Emerging tertiary education powerhouses China and South Korea were among those affected first. Within weeks, however, the virus was global, and every continent and nearly every country had to react. The immediate actions were roughly the same at world-class universities, technical colleges, and all forms of tertiary education provision in between: shut down campuses; send students home; deliver instruction remotely, where possible; accept a lost academic term where remote delivery is not possible. In few countries was the tertiary education sector able to respond by utilizing a well-informed, already prepared playbook for rapid closure of its physical plant. So, today, the world finds 99% of all formally enrolled students in tertiary education affected. In effect, these students are serving as part of a global experiment, with a wide variety of modalities being tried (with differing levels of effectiveness and quality) for continued provision of their tertiary education.

Three main equity implications are emerging in this first flush of change brought about by the pandemic: lives have been uprooted and left unmoored; the digital divide exposes the socioeconomic inequity of distance learning; and there is a disproportionate likelihood that underserved and at-risk students will not return when campuses reopen. Recognizing these equity challenges as early as possible should allow institutions and governments to fashion interventions that mitigate the impacts and environmental barriers to students’ returning to their studies.

Students’ lives, not just their academic programs, have been disrupted When their campuses closed, many students were forced to leave their dormitories and hostels. For many, especially those from lower economic groups or unsafe, unstable, or nonexistent family environments, these residence halls are home. Many students rely on their campus facilities as primary sources of meals, health care, and support services, including academic and mental health counseling. Moreover, many students work either on campus or locally, to earn money to cover expenses. The ecosystem that supports their academic commitments also provide a well-rounded life experience for millions of students, in countries at all income levels. In many cases, institutions did not have the capacity to intervene to support their most vulnerable students, who were left adrift. While the scale and quality of campus provision varies widely across regions, countries and institutions, for many students, it is their home. So, all over the world, the loss of this community upends students’ lives and may have lasting negative effects on these students and their families.

The digital divide has been exposed Online and distance learning has forced massive adaptation for tertiary education institutions regarding how information and coursework is delivered, strongly impacting how (and whether) students learn. There is, however, an implicit bias in this move, which assumes and requires a level of technical capacity, hardware and infrastructure, that is simply not the reality for students around the world. Instead, the move to remote learning has left literally millions of students without any accessible options for continuing their studies after leaving their campuses.

There is a widespread assumption that tertiary education is easily adaptable to a remote learning, but why should this be? Students enrolled on relatively well-resourced campuses—fully equipped with technology and infrastructure—return home to the same neighborhoods as their primary and secondary school neighbors. For many places, there is insufficient infrastructure, and homes lack the hardware and connectivity for distance learning. Moreover, tertiary education is a largely bespoke endeavor, where students craft their academic calendar according to their interests and fields of study and where the quality and opportunities are driven by research infrastructure and direct interactions between research and teaching. Such academic work cannot be delivered by radio or television, as is an option for younger students.

Globally, there is a massive regional variation in internet penetration, with Africa having the lowest, at 39.3% and North America the highest, at 94.6%. Even across fragile and low-income countries, there is massive disparity. As evidenced in Image 1 below, in some of the poorest countries, such as Niger and Somalia, internet connectivity is a luxury, reaching less than 10% of the population. Where internet is so inaccessible to the overwhelming majority of a population, distance delivery of education via online or mobile platforms in worse than inadequate—it is elitist and distortional in terms of expanding inequity.

Image 1. Global Internet Accessibility by Region

Persistence rates are likely to diminish Perhaps the most significant unknown about this pandemic—particularly in the recovery and resilience phases to come—is how the break in the academic year and the shock to the student experience will impact retention and persistence rates, particularly among already at-risk populations. This includes students who are lower-income, female, of underrepresented ethnic or minority groups, from rural areas, as well as those with mental health or learning challenges or physical disabilities. Students who took a risk to leave home initially, who are not able to remain academically active or are falling behind better connected classmates, or who were employed at or near school and have had to take on new jobs in new locations—all will find it hard to uproot themselves once again and return to school when the pandemic restrictions are lifted.

A recent study of first-degree students in the United States (March 2020, simpsonscarborough.com) found that 20% did not expect to return to the institution they left due to the pandemic closures. Many reported that they may enroll at an institution closer to home, but others will be unable to return to their studies at all. For vulnerable groups, the sacrifices and trade-offs required to achieve enrollment in tertiary education initially may not be sustainable in the aftermath of the personal and financial shocks the pandemic is causing. It is imperative that institutions and government leaders commit to supporting these at-risk students and find avenues for them to continue their studies. Otherwise, they risk becoming secondary victims of the pandemic and its fallout.

Equity in tertiary education is a challenge even in the best of times. The crisis triggered by COVID19 and likely exacerbated by a recession will undoubtedly stress the most vulnerable even more.

Stakeholders who are in a position to prepare for the equity implications should begin now, identifying at-risk students and communities and engaging with them, to understand and respond with support that can help them continue their studies. This crisis has the potential to expand inequities in tertiary education on a global scale. It is imperative to devise interventions that improve students’ persistence and retention. This is a task for governments, institutions, development partners, and individuals alike. While tertiary education institutions are first responders when it comes to at-risk students, governments need to support and complement their efforts through equity-oriented policies, frameworks, and targeted funding. return to table of contents

TVET (Technical and Vocational Education and Training) in the times of COVID-19: Challenges and Opportunities MARGO HOFTIJZER | VICTORIA LEVIN | INDHIRA SANTOS | MICHAEL WEBER | MAY 04, 2020

Nurses listen during a training program to learn more about child and adolescent mental health in Monrovia, Liberia

Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) programs are well-placed to play an important role in the COVID-19 pandemic. They have significant potential to contribute in three stages: the current “coping� phase, an intermediate phase when schools and businesses gradually reopen, and during the recovery period when structural changes are expected in both the education system and in the labor market.

Right now, however, more than 1.2 billion students worldwide are affected by school closures amid COVID-19, including in the TVET system. Learning is often being done remotely, through the internet, television or radio, for example. However, the degree to which learning can still take place outside the classroom, including in TVET, is often limited by lack of access to electricity, internet connectivity, devices or media, learning platforms, or the inadequate preparation of instructors and students for remote education. Some students, particularly women and girls, face additional constraints in terms of time availability due to competing responsibilities, such as caring for children and elderly family members and other household duties. Adjustments to distance learning can be the hardest in low-income contexts and among vulnerable students.

The hallmark of TVET – its focus on practical skills and work-readiness – makes remote learning particularly challenging. Practical skills are often acquired through learning-by-doing, which occurs in school-based workshops and laboratories or through hands-on experience at the workplace. Remote learning approaches are a weak substitute for practical exercises when they require the use of equipment or materials not usually found inside the home. In some contexts and for some occupations, practical training can be simulated remotely via, for example, virtual or augmented reality experiences. In general, however, TVET programs that struggle most with adjustment to distance learning are those that depend heavily on learning-by-doing. In contrast, programs that can switch to remote learning more easily are those with a stronger emphasis on academic subjects or on work-specific skills that do not require manual activities. For example, a program on cyber-security will be relatively easy to move online compared to a program on automobile mechanics as the latter requires substantial hands-on practice.

A silver lining for some TVET students and programs is that work-based learning can continue in cases where businesses remain open. In some contexts, precautionary measures can be taken to allow students to complete their practical training. For some occupations and in contexts with adequate connectivity, work-based learning can also go on uninterrupted through virtual internships or apprenticeships. That said, where there is widespread or prolonged closures of businesses or extensive physical distancing limits as businesses reopen, graduation or certification requirements associated with work-based learning may need to be modified or postponed.

TVET’s targeted, short-term and potentially modular approaches can help countries in coping with the crisis. In the immediate term, when countries are focused on coping with COVID-19, the training system can help address needs for health care workers, those engaged in producing relevant medical equipment (such as personal protective equipment and ventilators), or those who provide essential childcare and eldercare services. Previous pandemics provide insights about the potential held by TVET programs during crises. During the 2014/15 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone, a National Ebola Training Academy was set up to offer a platform of clinical training modules for frontline Ebola health care workers. The intensive short-term training provided through the Academy was found to have contributed to controlling the outbreak. It may also be possible to effectively engage current TVET students in the COVID-19 response.

In the intermediate phase, as activities restart and schools gradually reopen, TVET can play a role in supporting the transition to most likely a “new normal.” Lifting of lockdowns on schools and businesses will call for greater attention to health and safety measures and increased need to prepare for disruption in case of new COVID-19 flareups. TVET can support the training of needed professionals, continuing in the health sector but also in occupations such as child care professionals, who can enable caretakers going back to work and adolescents back to school. At the same time, TVET systems can provide much-needed socioemotional skills support to teachers and students to manage the mental health impacts resulting from the crisis.

In the COVID-19 recovery phase, there are opportunities for smart investment in pre-service TVET and adult training to “build back better” programs and systems. In this phase, TVET can cater to students who dropped out during school closures and reskilling or upskilling those who have become unemployed. TVET can also facilitate the development of skills necessary for the

adjustment to structural changes brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Continued focus on ensuring acquisition and development of foundational cognitive and socioemotional skills, such as empathy and resilience, which have become increasingly valued in the current circumstances, will improve employability and other human development outcomes for TVET students.

Moreover, investment in learning technology and digital skills of TVET instructors and students can ensure lifelong access to learning opportunities and future workforce adaptability.

So, how are TVET programs and students doing during the COVID-19 crisis? How are countries planning to adapt TVET to what comes next? The World Bank has joined forces with ILO and UNESCO to collect this information from TVET providers, policymakers, and social partners. You can help us to obtain a comprehensive picture of what TVET programs are doing to carry on their essential tasks and help mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 by participating in this survey (EN /FR /SP /RU /AR /CH/ VN/PT), which closes on May 15, 2020. We will report back on the results and give examples of different approaches countries are following. Stay tuned! return to table of contents

The Blending of Space and Time During COVID19 ROBERT HAWKINS | MAY 07, 2020

Empty classroom

The coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis and the necessity of the use of EdTech for remote learning will blend, bend, and alter the new norm for education systems as they reimagine space and time.

EdTech has always promised anytime, anywhere learning and we are currently seeing the challenges and opportunities of this mode of learning. While education systems deal with emergency responses to the crisis, they are also laying the seeds for future recovery, resilience and reform of the system. Schools will eventually re-open and students will return to the classroom. The investments and decisions, however, being made today to deliver remote learning will create a new normal in which the question of where students learn and when they learn will blend classroom learning with home learning bringing education to the student – anytime, anywhere.

This blog looks at 5 critical questions countries are asking in light of COVID school closures and answers that may reveal the future of an education reform agenda.

1. Learning Resources. What content and resources are available for remote learning and how can I integrate these into my curriculum? In response to this question, Ministries have found a vast amount of available digital resources that are freely available.

They have also realized however that these resources need curation, categorization and integration with the curriculum as well as a strategy of multi-model delivery via the most appropriate channel – Radio, TV, Mobile and On-line as highlighted in this blog sharing

experiences from Spain, Mexico and Uruguay. Moreover, many countries like Brazil are finding new crowdsourced content on YouTube. In India the EkStep Foundation has linked QR codes to textbooks to extend access to digital resources. The app is available also to use offline.

2. Student Engagement. How do I maintain student engagement in learning from a distance? Ministries are identifying programs that incorporate storytelling, interactivity, and games to engage and motivate students. Edutainment provider Ubongo shared some lessons here at the World Bank on April 22. Over 17 million families in Africa learn with Ubongo’s edu-cartoons and radio programs in 12 countries in 4 languages combining TV with mobile technologies. Poland supports many innovative content initiatives including Grarantanna, which included the setting up of a dedicated educational Minecraft server.

3. Teacher and Parent Engagement. How can I best support teachers and parents to engage with students from a distance? Education is a social endeavor and the quantity and quality of engagement and interaction with the student either through teacher, parent, or other educator is essential to the learning process. Ministries are expanding the human resources available to support student learning. Argentina has introduced through Seguimos Educando the concept of combining the teacher with a conductor (journalist, artist, scientist) for radio and TV broadcasts. Israel has introduced the iscientist program – a “dating” app in which teachers can book a webinar with a scientist. In the Kyrgyz Republic the Ministry of Education and Science announced a campaign, "Reading Family", through Facebook. Parents read and discuss books together with their children, post information on Facebook with the hashtag “#uido_kitep_okuibuz” and pass on a baton to their friends via social networks. The most active families will be given gifts and nominated with the title "Akurman Uy-buloo” (“Erudite Family").

4. Assessment. How do I know if learning is happening and how do I address learning gaps? One of the largest challenges is assessment of student learning from a distance. Many countries have cancelled or modified national exams and have defaulted to other means of assessment. This blog on High Stakes Exams During COVID 19 discusses the tradeoffs between health, equity and accountability. In Egypt, for grades 3-7 (transition years), exams will not be conducted for students at the end of the current school year. Instead, a research project for each subject will be completed on the electronic platform. The crisis is forcing many countries to reconsider the value of high stakes exams and the opportunities for technology to capture data for continuous formative assessments. Mexico has introduced the concept of “portfolios of experience” in which parents take photos or videos of what the children are learning at home to present to teachers when schools open.

5. Data Infrastructure. What investments should I make to ensure broader access to digital resources and interoperability of data? Ministries are reaching out to mobile and telecommunication providers to explore options to expand access to students and

parents, discovering the need for increased server capacity, and identifying challenges with integration of new platforms and the data that is collected through the platforms. This blog highlights how Ministries are working with technology providers on solutions such as on zero-rating as in Colombia, use of universal service funds and public hotspots. Other countries like Bhutan are also exploring reducing costs for connectivity. A number of countries are embracing open learning management systems and consortia are forming around open education such as Open EdTech Consortium who have adopted these principles for open education. In order to provide wider internet coverage to all students and families, the Kenya Civil Aviation Authority (KCAA) in partnership with Alphabet Inc. and Telkom Kenya, has partnered with Google’s Loon Balloons floating over Kenyan airspace to carry 4G base stations. Loon is a network of stratospheric balloons that provide internet connectivity to rural and remote communities.

The overarching question is how this emergency response to COVID-19 will impact the future of learning and how education will be re-imagined? The crisis has highlighted the importance of the physical space that the school provides as a community hub. The school is appreciated as a critical public space for delivery of food, paper learning resources, and childcare – providing a safe place while parents work. More importantly however it is a space for social engagement with teachers, peers, and school leaders who care about each other and create a culture of excellence and inquiry. The crisis however has highlighted that the school is not the only place education happens. As countries build resilience for the next crisis and consider reforms to the system, many will blend bringing students to school for the essential face to face engagement with bringing education to students – anytime, anywhere. return to table of contents

Protecting education finance from COVID-19’s triple funding shock SAMER AL-SAMARRAI | MAY 12, 2020

Man with mask in market

Picking up the newspaper in recent weeks would have been difficult if you were an education minister. Not only would you have been scrambling to organize learning during school closures, but the funds to do it seemed to be under threat. In many countries, media reports suggest the slashing of education budgets to make room for emergency spending on the coronavirus (COVID-19) response.

The effects of the pandemic on government education budgets, while important, are not the only funding worries for ministers. Education systems face a triple funding shock, with COVID-19 expected to put significant strains on household and donor funding that will only add to its effects on government funding.

In our recent note, we look at the funding outlook over the next two years and examine the options countries have to fund education while coping with the health and economic shocks of COVID-19.

The outlook is uncertain, but forecasts show that government spending on education is likely to suffer as a consequence of the pandemic. Using IMF projections of economic growth and government spending, we have looked at the potential impact on education budgets. We focus on projecting spending per school-aged child, which provides a more useful picture than total spending on how the changes might affect education access and quality. Our most optimistic scenario shows that the pandemic could reduce planned increases in education spending in 2020 versus projections prior to the crisis. But our more pessimistic forecasts show that per-

capita education spending could fall significantly in all regions, with middle-income countries seeing the largest drops.

While economic growth is predicted to rebound in 2021, education spending is likely to stagnate in most countries, and actually fall in some, as governments attempt to contain budget deficits brought about by COVID-19.

The second shock to education financing will come from families’ own spending. Parents in lowand middle-income countries will struggle to maintain the considerable resources they devote to their children’s education. The livelihoods of many families have already been affected by the pandemic and are likely to be for some time to come. The ILO expects working hours to decline by 7 percent in 2020, equivalent to the loss of at least 195 million jobs worldwide. The pandemic is expected to push 40-60 million more children into extreme poverty. We know from past crises that income shocks are likely to lead to many children dropping out of school or not returning when schools reopen. In the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98, household education spending in Indonesia fell as much as 17 percent in rural areas, lowering school participation rates particularly for the poorest children.

The third shock is likely to come from external financing of education. Development assistance to the sector has only recently returned to levels seen before the 2008-09 financial crisis. Since COVID-19 is expected to hit the economies of the major bilateral donors hard, they will find it challenging to maintain their overall levels of assistance. This will have the largest impact in lowincome countries, where development assistance makes up around 12 percent of total education funding.

While these forecasts remain fluid, the deteriorating outlook underscores that it is urgent to mount an effective pandemic response that protects education and does not worsen a global learning crisis that preceded COVID-19. Resources will be needed to ensure that systems are prepared and learning can continue during school closures, as well as to accelerate progress once schools can safely reopen.

How can countries achieve this? It will depend in part on the pandemic’s fiscal impact. For countries that have sufficient fiscal space, the pandemic response in education can be funded through additional spending. For those with limited fiscal space, funds will need to come from existing budgets and by making better use of the resources they have.

Donors should protect education assistance and frontload their existing commitments to help finance the COVID-19 response. While many countries will face hard choices, it is critical to give priority to frontline education services so that current levels of access and standards of quality are protected.

The crisis also highlights the need to improve the coverage and quality of data on education finance, to be better able to monitor spending plans and assess whether resources are being used effectively. As of today, we don’t have any data on education spending for 2019 and information for only 56 countries for 2018. In many countries, while information on education budgets exists, it’s not publicly available or presented in a meaningful way.

Protecting education financing should be part of an effective pandemic response, so that countries face only a temporary setback to their progress toward providing good quality education opportunities to all. Countries entered this crisis spending vastly different amounts on education. On average, high-income countries were spending 43 times as much on the education of their primary school children as low-income countries. And while developing countries have invested a lot more in their education systems over the past 15 years, it is not enough to narrow gaps in education quality and attainment.

The lockdown has made it clear that remote learning is part of the future, and that it will require massive improvements in connectivity, education technology, the digital skills of teachers and many other related investments. Ensuring that systems are better prepared to continue learning during school closures and can accelerate learning during the new normal will require even greater levels of investment. Since today’s children will pay for the debts incurred to respond to the COVID-19 crisis, it only seems fair and sensible that all countries find ways to protect learning and their financing of education. return to table of contents

Building Back Better: Accelerating learning when schools reopen, and what Kenya’s Tusome program can teach us TRACY WILICHOWSKI | ADELLE PUSHPARATNAM | ELAINE DING | EZEQUIEL MOLINA | MAY 14, 2020

Tusome

As countries grapple with the impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on learning loss, dropout rates, and inequity, they must simultaneously determine how to reopen schools safely.

However, if countries move quickly to support continued learning, they can mitigate the damage and even turn recovery into acceleration. These policy responses provide an opportunity for education systems to not only recover, but not replicate the mistakes of the past. Countries now have an opportunity to build back better, and may consider the lessons from successful interventions, like Tusome, to build the basis for long-term improvements in ensuring students are equipped with the basic skills to succeed.

When it comes to education interventions, every policymaker is out to find the “holy grail:” a rigorously evaluated pilot, which improved student outcomes and is scalable. Kenya’s Tusome Early Grade Reading Activity embodies some of these qualities. A collaboration between Kenya’s Ministry of Education, and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and implemented by RTI International, the Tusome activity builds upon the interventions developed and piloted through the Primary Mathematics and Reading (PRIMR) initiative. Tusome includes “ingredients” that have been found to be most effective in improving student literacy outcomes, including: i) teacher professional development and reinforcement visits from coaches, ii) literacy

textbooks given to students on a 1:1 student-to-textbook ratio, and iii) structured teacher guides that help teachers’ execute the lesson and are aligned to their students’ textbooks. These ingredients work together to create a culture of good practice and accountability – not only at a school level, but at a system level. Single ingredients, though, do not make the cake. Our team conducted a field visit to Tusome to learn more about the driving factors behind the success of the program. This success is predicated on the government’s willingness to enact reforms and innovate for change – here our top five lessons from the visit: 1. Use pilot results to build political capital for reform. To garner buy-in from the Ministry and instill government ownership during the PRIMR pilot, the RTI team arranged site visits with members from all levels of the Ministry to observe the pilot program in action. These visits, compounded with the positive results from the pilot, helped create ‘champions’ within the Ministry, securing the political backing needed to adopt Tusome and implement it at scale.

2. Create simple materials that are easy to implement. Teachers were given teachers’ guides with structured lesson plans aligned to the textbooks their students’ received, which helped improve their instruction and facilitate teacher buy-in from the start of the program. These guides follow a consistent instructional method (i.e. “I do, we do, you do”) and were designed to fit within a 30-minute lesson, making them straightforward and easy to follow. Lastly, the guides are lightweight and strongly bound, so that they can be used daily and transported frequently without falling apart.

3. Give coaches the time and resources needed to support teachers. Government pedagogical support officers, known as Curriculum Support Officers (CSOs), were given the time and resources to visit schools regularly, observe teachers’ lessons, and provide constructive feedback on their instructional practice. Previously, CSOs were primarily responsible for administrative tasks. The Ministry reallocated CSOs to technical activities to carry out these tasks so that CSOs could focus on supporting teachers. CSOs were also given a tablet with coaching materials and were supported by RTI education officers and county-level technical leaders. The CSOs observed teachers in the classroom and provided real-time feedback to teachers once a month. They also encouraged peer-based support among teachers, which created communities of learning. The RTI education officers and county-level education officers observed CSOs in their coaching sessions for teachers to help them improve the quality of their coaching and to transform their role squarely to instructional support.

4. Give every child a high-quality, age-appropriate textbook. The Tusome program invested heavily to develop a set of high-quality, age-appropriate textbooks – and put them in the hands of every child. A complementary and closely linked set of Teacher’s Guides were also developed (for example, each lesson of the Teacher’s Guide has embedded in it a picture of the corresponding page in the student textbook). As part of their observations, the CSOs also checked to ensure that each child had a textbook, in hand, during class. CSOs also had access to buffer stocks when and if individual schools did not have sufficient books. This impressive feat was made possible by reforms that streamlined the procurement and distribution process. These efforts resulted in a 75%

reduction in book costs and more efficient printing and distribution, making it possible to ensure the books actually made it into the hands of every student.

5. Use real-time data to monitor the quality of implementation and create a system of accountability. The CSO’s tablets not only contained coaching materials, they function as a means for CSOs to collect student assessment and teacher observational data. These tablets also enable policymakers to monitor whether coaches actually conduct their allocated visits. These data are automatically stored in a cloud-based platform that generates a monthly report, which policymakers use to monitor whether CSOs conduct classroom visits and provide travel reimbursements for those who do. This information affords policymakers the means to monitor variations in performance at the school and district level, which can then be used to improve teaching training and classroom teaching practices.

What’s Next for Tusome?

Since 2014, Tusome has provided English and Kiswahili textbooks to all students in grades 1-3, trained every lower primary school language teacher on reading pedagogies, and provided CSOs with the tools and skills to support teachers. Yet, there is no guarantee it will continue to boost such high learning outcomes without continuous funding from USAID and implementation support from RTI. The program is scheduled to be transitioned to full Ministry leadership this year.

Alongside Tusome was the Ministry-led Early Grade Mathematics (PRIEDE) project. PRIEDE also scaled up an intervention piloted by the PRIMR initiative, but differed from Tusome in that it focused on early grade mathematics. PRIEDE also differed from Tusome in that it was rolled out without the support of an external implementing partner. Despite these differences, PRIEDE operated at the same scale as Tusome, and provided in-service training and regular pedagogical supervision and support to 60,000 teachers across the country, reaching 1.3 million pupils through improved classroom instruction, and benefiting 6 million pupils through the provision of improved early grade mathematics textbooks. Preliminary results of PRIEDE point to a 5% improvement in student numeracy proficiency from end line survey results (81.9%) compared to the midline results (76.6%).

PRIEDE had many of the same ‘ingredients’ as Tusome. Like Tusome, the PRIMR pilot was key for garnering political buy-in for PRIEDE. The intervention also utilized CSOs as a medium to deliver feedback and provided teachers with guides and complementary student textbooks. However, PRIEDE has not boasted as robust of effects on student learning as Tusome. There are several reasons that help account for this difference. First, Tusome hired staff trained by RTI to train and support CSOs alongside of government supervisors, whereas PRIEDE utilized Ministry staff only.

Second, CSOs were reimbursed for conducting literacy classroom observations by Tusome, whereas the CSOs did not receive their reimbursements as consistently through PRIEDE. The challenges PRIEDE faced point to the need for implementation fidelity and a well-functioning mechanism for course correction in order to ensure that essential ingredients can work cohesively together.

How is the World Bank Learning from These Programs?

Tusome, like Sobral, presents a strong case for how a country can tackle learning poverty. These cases exemplify the success that is possible when teachers are equipped with the tools and support needed to effectively teach for literacy, when schools and children have access to ageand skill-appropriate texts, and when there is political and technical commitment to measure and set goals for learning. Interventions that include these components have been shown to improve literacy outcomes, and are at the core of the World Bank’s recently launched learning target and complementary Literacy Policy Package.

To accelerate student learning and eradicate learning poverty, the World Bank is developing the Coach program as part of the Literacy Policy Package. Coach is a forthcoming in-service teacher professional development program that aims to move away from a traditional focus on inputs (e.g. number of teachers trained, number of credit hours awarded) and focus on how coaches and other school leaders can provide evidence-based support to teachers. For a quick introduction to Coach, watch our recent Innovations to Transform Teaching event.

The COVID-19 crisis is amplifying the pre-existing global learning crisis, but presents also a unique opportunity for countries to learn from programs like Tusome and PRIEDE as they design their crisis-recovery strategies. Likewise, our goal is to not reinvent the wheel but learn from existing programs to inform how Coach can best support teachers.

If you know of a coaching program that: i) has helped to improve the way teachers’ teach and deliver existing content, ii) could inform our work on Coach, and iii) is willing share their experiences and/or materials, please reach out to us at coach@worldbank.org. By building on one another’s work, we’ll reach our goal of improved in-service teacher professional development and be better positioned to provide global public goods that can best serve inservice teacher professional development systems in low- and middle-income countries around the world.

A special thanks to Ruth Charo, Gemma Todd, Girma Woldetsadik, Ben Piper, and Jessica Mejia for their insightful contributions to this blog. return to table of contents

Reopening schools: When, where and how?

STEFANIA GIANNINI | ROBERT JENKINS | JAIME SAAVEDRA | MAY 18, 2020

Little girl walks with mother

This post originally appeared here.

It has been around two months since schools closed in more than 190 countries, affecting 1.57 billion children and youth - 90% of the world’s student population. Closures happened in quick succession as a measure to contain the Covid-19 virus. Just as speedily, governments deployed measures for learning to continue through platforms, television and radio in what has been the most far-reaching experiment in the history of education. But when it comes to reopening schools, the tempo is far more uncertain. According to UNESCO data, 100 countries have not yet announced a date for schools to reopen, 65 have plans for partial or full reopening, while 32 will end the academic year online. For 890 million students however, the school calendar has never been so undefined.

When and how to reopen schools is one of the toughest and most sensitive decisions on political agendas today. Is it safe to reopen schools or is there a risk of reigniting infections? What are the consequences to children’s mental health and to the social development of young children? Are students engaged in remote learning actually learning? And when the time comes, how will schools ensure students return and help learners who have fallen behind during school closures?

The decision is complex because the pandemic continues to evolve, and not in linear manner.

There is insufficient evidence on risks of transmission. Everywhere, confinement will be lifted gradually, with many question marks on how the process will be managed, to a great extent because there are many characteristics of the virus that we just don’t know. Yet, even with the

current uncertainties, governments can anticipate and prepare to reopen schools successfully, putting the necessary safeguards in place.

The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres recently called on governments and donors to prioritize education for all children, including the most marginalized. The Global Education Coalition was set up to support governments in strengthening distance learning and facilitating the reopening of schools.

As one can expect, the longer the school interruption, the larger the learning loss. Hence, the earlier schools can reopen, the less risk of long-term damage to the learning journeys and wellbeing of millions of children. We are concerned that prolonged school closures will exacerbate inequalities, deepen the learning crisis and expose the most vulnerable children to heightened risk of exploitation. We know from other crises that the longer marginalized children are out of school, the less likely they are to return. After the Ebola crisis in West Africa, we saw increased rates of sexual exploitation and teen pregnancy, demonstrating how girls are particularly at-risk during school closures.

Schools are not only places of learning. They provide social protection, nutrition, health and emotional support that are a life security for the most disadvantaged, and this applies in all countries, from low to high income. The World Food Programme estimates that 370 million children are not receiving school meals as a result of school closures. As half the world’s students don’t have access to a household computer, the chance of learning loss over this period is nearly inevitable. How large that loss will be will depend on the effectiveness of alternative channels that are being widely used. But in any case, it will never fully compensate.

Add to that the social isolation from friends and teachers, anxiety, displacement and possible death of loved ones in the worst cases, and the psychological toll of school closures rises by the day.

This is not a simple matter of weighing risks and benefits. The absolute priority is to safeguard the lives and well-being of communities, including children and teaching personnel. Even if dates cannot be announced yet, planning for school reopening begins now.

Consultation and communication with parents, teachers, students and communities at large are necessary to understand concerns and address them. This ensures the confidence and support to school reopening that is a prerequisite for informing policies, financing and operational measures. The key message is that these decisions are context specific and depend on the capacity of schools to mitigate risks of infection transmission and promote healthy behaviours.

Critical conditions to assess include access to soap and clean water for handwashing, and protocols on social distancing. Safety can also mean reducing the number of students on site, through double shifts, prioritizing early grades or particular target groups, or continuing with a blended learning approach.

After safety, there must be a focus on the learning recovery process – from assessing learning outcomes during school closures, ensuring their socio-emotional well-being and taking measures to address disparities through remedial approaches. Support to teachers and their professional development will be essential to success.

School reopening during this global crisis is not a return to normal. We must do things not only differently, but better. Just as the most marginalized students were most at risk of being left behind by distance learning modalities, they must be the priority of any back to school strategy.

Schools have to proactively bring them back and provide support. This can entail flexible learning approaches, practices to expand access to previously out-of-school children, displaced and migrant children, minorities and other excluded groups. It will require recognizing the particular challenge of girls and young mothers who might face stigma and discriminatory school re-entry laws that prevent them from accessing education. The risk of some students, particularly those of secondary age, that have been disengaged for a long period from school to never return is very high. That risk has to be reduced by active public policy such as communication campaigns targeting those most at risk, engaging with families and communities, or providing scholarships.

As discussed in the World Bank report on the impact of the pandemic on education and the policy responses, we must capitalize on innovations and gather important lessons on the use of technology at this unprecedented scale to move to a new normal. This can constitute a turning point to use new pedagogies to tackle the learning crisis and provide more inclusive and creative learning models. Now is the time to build back better, to make education systems more inclusive and better prepared to face and overcome possible crisis in the future, including climate-related ones. And more than ever, this is a time to protect education – and education budgets - from the socio-economic fallout of the pandemic.

Because we share the same aspiration for schools to reopen in a timely manner and safely and to safeguard every child’s right to education, UNICEF, UNESCO, the World Food Programme and the World Bank have joined forces to produce guidance that offers practical advice for national and local authorities on how to keep children safe when they return to school. The Framework for Reopening Schools is designed as a flexible tool for policy makers and planners, highlighting all the factors that will make this experience a successful one for students, teachers, principals, parents and the wider community.

The best interest of the child is the main objective. Our aim is to reopen better, healthier and safer schools. And this is an opportunity to build education systems that are more inclusive, support ALL children to learn and are more resilient in future crises. We must seize this opportunity.

More on COVID-19 Educational Disruption and Response return to table of contents

Supporting teachers during the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic TARA BETEILLE | MAY 19, 2020

Teacher in Ghana

We’re in Vientiane, Lao PDR, where my 1st grader’s school has been closed for two months. It will not open until August 2020. But every weekday, he wakes up excited to see the activities his teachers have planned for him ― writing letters or stories, reading, games, experiments, interactive activities for groups of kids, and meditation. Once he’s done with one and posts it, he waits to hear back from his teachers, which he invariably does – detailed, thoughtful comments on every little thing he posts. They do this for all the kids. It’s truly mindboggling. His teachers have learned what works and what doesn’t along the way, innovating and seeking feedback from parents, school management and each other, all while reassuring us everything is in control.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has brought life to a standstill across the world, with nearly 178 countries reporting school closures. Parents like us have the luxury of knowing our kids will be alright ― their schools and teachers are working overtime so our kids can learn. That isn’t the reality for many parents and school systems. If anything, this pandemic has brought into sharp focus how privileged some students are, and how others have been left behind. It has also shown us how important teachers are ― and how they can succeed, even during a crisis, with the right technology and support system.

While many school systems and teachers are trying to engage students, they face at least three serious bottlenecks: (1) stress due to economic uncertainty, concern for the safety of loved ones, and anxiety about the future; (2) the daunting challenge of returning to schools where many students have dropped out or fallen behind ― and increased pressure on teachers to ensure catch-up with little professional development support; and (3) little access to the right

technologies or the skills to use them (my son’s school gives all teachers and students ipads with a host of learning material pre-loaded).

A new World Bank note outlines three key principles to strengthen teacher effectiveness during and in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, as well as opportunities for long-run improvement: 1. Principle 1: Support Teacher Resilience to Ensure Teacher Effectiveness: School systems must protect teacher jobs and salaries so that there is a motivated workforce ready to get students back to speed when schools reopen. Enhancing teacher intrinsic motivation and minimizing burnout is also important. Interventions, such as the HealthMinds@ Work-inspired initiative, Education for Wellbeing, in Mexico, can help teachers cultivate important aspects of well-being using simple exercises drawing upon the latest findings in neuroscience, psychology and traditional contemplative perspectives. In the long-term, specialized counselling units can support teacher wellbeing in both emergency and non-emergency situations.

2. Principle 2: Support Teachers Instructionally to Ensure Teacher Effectiveness: Teachers must be equipped to assess students once they return to school so they can identify what key content and skills have been lost and need rebuilding – as well as detect warning signs of dropping out. Teachers will also need professional development support to undertake effective remedial education. As school systems settle, the focus must return to ensure all early grade children are proficient readers, the foundation for all subsequent learning. Roughly 400 hours of high-quality, properly-sequenced instruction, delivered with appropriate pedagogy will maximize the number of students who become independent readers by the end of grade 3. For this, teachers will require support to master their ability to deliver high-quality early grade instruction.

3. Principle 3: Support Teachers Technologically to Ensure Teacher Effectiveness: Countries and school systems that have weathered COVID-19 more successfully have also ensured their teachers have access to technology. As schools closed in the Kyrgyz Republic, for instance, teachers were provided free SIM cards to access educational material online and WhatsApp. But it isn’t just about providing technology; teachers must also know how to use technology effectively. In Lebanon, the Ministry has been training teachers to record and upload documents and hold virtual classes effectively. Not all teachers will approach technology in the same way. They will need to be supported with diverse strategies. As school systems settle, technology should be integrated into teaching-learning processes as well as routine needs, such as HR-systems.

In all these tasks, strong school leadership will be key. The post-COVID-19 phase will offer many opportunities to “Build Back Better”, that is strengthen quality and equity in school systems.

Countries will need to devote the necessary financing to achieve these goals ― and they will need to bridge digital gaps ― if they want a generation of flourishing young people. return to table of contents

The impact of COVID-19 on labor market outcomes: Lessons from past economic crises TAZEEN FASIH | HARRY A. PATRINOS | M. NAJEEB SHAFIQ | MAY 20, 2020

Young Bangladeshi women in training

Given the economic crises facing many countries amid the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), significant impacts on labor market outcomes are expected. While pandemics differ, they invariably affect economic output. The Black Death of 1347-1352 caused more than 75 million deaths around the world, devastating many urban areas, with fewer deaths in rural areas. That led to a reduction in available labor thereby increasing agricultural wages. The Spanish Flu of 1918-1920 caused the deaths of up to 100 million people and curtailed economic activity, with impacts that could be traced into the 1980s.

The impending recession will lead to job losses, lower incomes, and increased poverty. The direct impacts, however, can lead to other short- and medium-term effects that could prove just as painful in the longer run. For instance, job losses affect future earnings due to interruptions, lost productivity, de-skilling associated with prolonged unemployment spells, and missed opportunities to build human capital on the job. Past crises led to earning declines that persisted for several years.

According to human capital theory, educational attainment increases cognitive skills and hence improves labor market outcomes, such as productivity and earnings. Educated workers are

better able to cope with the disequilibria brought on by events such as economic crises because they are able to adapt to the changing needs of employers and new technologies. In addition, educated workers are better able to seek information about job opportunities from family, friends, advertisements, former employers, radio and the labor bureau.

The rates of return to education – which is the differential between the price of highly and less educated workers – may rise during crises, since the earnings of those with less education fall because of increased unemployment rates among the less educated. This creates a pool of unemployed less-educated workers, which in turn dampens wages of less-educated workers. If the earnings of the university graduates remain unchanged or change relatively modestly, then the rate of return to university education increases during crises. Also, more educated workers can more easily find other work to maintain earnings. Less educated workers tend to take lowerpaying jobs during a crisis, while more advantaged graduates can switch to better jobs more quickly. Employers may be reluctant to lay off educated workers because they are better able to adapt to changing economic conditions.

Several studies have documented the changes in the rates of return before, during and after a crisis. In Argentina, during the volatile periods of 1992-2002, the earnings of educated workers were less affected by crises than the earnings of the less educated workers. Educated workers in Mexico enjoyed larger advantages than less educated ones during non-crisis years, and even larger advantages during crises and recessions. During the recent economic crisis, university educated graduates enjoyed better prospects in the labor market than those with lower educational levels in Greece. And research from Thailand in the crisis of the late 1990s indicates that those with academic secondary education fared better than those with secondary vocational education because of increased number of workers with vocational degrees, and a lack of work opportunities requiring vocational skills during the Asian crisis years.

Workers in agricultural sectors may be more immune to an economic crisis, particularly in countries with more equitable land distribution, because they may be able to produce more food than they consume and are not dependent on other food sellers or that the unemployed in other sectors could be absorbed. Emerging evidence, however, indicates that COVID-19 has caused considerable harm to the incomes of less-educated agricultural sector workers. Workers in manufacturing sectors typically suffer the most during a recession, especially middleincome earners with secondary schooling.

Historical research from the US suggests that the crisis will exacerbate income inequality. During a crisis, middle-income workers (those without university degrees) fare considerably worse than high-income workers (those with university degrees), and this gap continues to widen after the crisis. The low-income workers (those with secondary education only) may suffer less because they offer essential services, and most of them are likely to return to work after the economy begins recovering. So far, low-income workers have been disproportionally affected by COVID19. The crisis is already leading to increased income inequality according to real time surveys from the UK, US, Germany, Japan and Canada. Employees in Germany, which has a wellestablished short-time work scheme, are substantially less likely to be affected by the crisis. But in all five countries, the young, less educated workers, women, and minorities are more affected

by COVID-19. Poverty rates for those groups are also likely to spike as the labor market

performance data in the US and the UK shows a collapse twenty times faster and much deeper than the Great Recession.

Interventions to Counter the Impact of Crises The literature shows that more educated are more likely to weather economic crisis and shocks better. Several key actions can be taken: 1. Maintain government expenditure levels on education: The crisis is expected to lead to budget cuts, and education may lose a lot. Some predict massive budget cuts to education. This will jeopardize the gains we have been making globally in terms of access to education and in the global effort to improve learning outcomes. We may also need to think about incentives for students to remain in school, such as scholarships, conditional cash transfers, and savings programs that encourage study. A lack of investment in education and training will hurt long-term economic prospects and lead to short term losses for students, workers and their families.

2. Provide income support and employment: Direct income support and employment for young people are important mechanisms to adopt now. In the past, public works programs have successfully kept young people working. Employing youth during the coronavirus pandemic is a good investment. It helps mitigate the long-term consequences of COVID-19 for labor productivity. Similarly, it makes sense to consider innovative programs such as universal basic income. Several countries had experimented with it previously, and several more are considering it now. Such programs will help lowincome and less educated workers get the job experience they need, and give them a cushion during times of unemployment, so that they may also pursue further education and training.

3. Invest in digital skills and technology: The unusual and unprecedented nature of the crisis means that it is not only the more educated but also the ones who are in jobs and occupations more amenable to remote work who fare better. In most cases, it ends up being people with digital skills. Therefore, equipping people with digital skills has suddenly become a critical need. Even professions such as elementary school teachers, music teachers, personal fitness trainers, and the likes who may never have needed to connect remotely as a service provider have now had to connect through internet and online.

Offering short training courses to improve digital skills will help in this regard.

Governments have also started subsidizing internet access or providing low-cost computers for those without access to technology.

All three actions are needed. All three also encourage continued investment in education so that education levels will rise. return to table of contents

The education (negative) twin shocks, and the opportunity they bring JAIME SAAVEDRA | MAY 24, 2020

chalkboard

We are living the largest shock to the global education system in modern history. It might be easy to underestimate the magnitude of the shock. This pandemic has swept the globe, closing schools in both rich and poor countries. Just picture the figure reached at the peak of the systemic global schools’ closure in mid-April: 1.8 billion children out of school. That is almost all school-age children, or 24% of the world’s population. The school closures are not just a long interruption of the education academic and social experience, but an uncertain tide, that we don’t know when it will really recede.

The lockdowns needed to fight the pandemic are generating one of the deepest recessions in history, which might leave many children and young people, particularly those more marginalized, outside the system. Many children and youth will have to enter the workforce to help support families, and many parents will not be able to cover the minimum costs that education entails, even in free public schools or universities.

We have lived through school closures before. Many countries have experienced at some point strikes or political crises that have shut down the system, even for a few months. We have lived through deep economic recessions before, with sharp impacts on public budgets and family disposable incomes. But we have never had this twin shock in the education system: long school closures, followed by a deep economic recession. So precisely when we must accelerate learning to make up for the lost time, when we need to reimagine education to adapt to a new way of living and interacting, both family and public budgets will be strained. Moreover, this is happening simultaneously in the whole planet, which means that international aid to support

educational efforts in poor countries is compromised (this triple – not twin – shock is discussed

by Samer Al-Samarrai and coauthors here).

To make the picture even more bleak (sorry), even before the COVID-19 pandemic the world was already living a learning crisis. Kids were not learning enough. 53% of children were not able to read and understand a simple text by age 10, as shown by the Learning Poverty indicator of the World Bank. And the learning crisis was not equally distributed. In most low- and middle-income countries, education opportunities were still defined by where you were born, who your parents were, the wealth of your family. The impact of different opportunities is now multiplied and magnified.

There is no doubt that just the immediate impact of the school closures will be tremendous learning losses, and potentially, many school dropouts. Fortunately (some good news), governments are actively trying to at least partially offset this negative impact. In what the World Bank is calling the Coping Phase in its most recent report on the potential impacts of the crisis, 140 countries have implemented some type of remote learning. 120 countries have implemented multiplatform strategies: combining online tools, with SMS, radio, TV, and distribution of printed material. In our view, the use of diverse media is critical, as online tools will reach only a small share of students (approximately 50% of students in middle-income countries and 10% in low-income countries have access to internet and a device). Hence, other platforms are needed to reach poorer students with some content. Without explicit policies to reach more vulnerable households, only rich and educated families will be able to cope with the shock. The mitigation effectiveness of these strategies will be partial. The teacher cannot be replaced by online education, the schools’ social experience cannot be replaced. But the more that can be done to partially mitigate, the better.

In a second phase, which the World Bank calls Managing Continuity, school systems will have to manage a period of high uncertainty. The impact of this shock might (only might) be over when a vaccine is developed and administered. In the meantime, life will be very different. Closures will, in some cases, be for two or three months, and there will be a gradual return to school buildings in the coming months. Other systems will resume in September or maybe later. And even when kids go back to school nobody knows how long the transition will take, with the possibility of a second wave of contagion in the northern hemisphere and, hence, the possibility of closing again.

But as authorities ease the restrictions, school attendance will depend on parental attitudes and school conditions. Better-off parents may have good connectivity at home and access to decent remote learning, with good online teacher-student interaction, access to online material, and with good monitoring and feedback mechanisms from teachers. They might be more cautious in agreeing to send their children back to schools. Other parents, for whom remote learning has implied little interaction, will be eager to send their children back to school.

In that context, it will be critical to prevent possibly irreversible reductions in school enrollments and to close learning gaps that will likely have expanded during the closures. Efforts should be geared to make up for the lost time to avoid permanent impacts in the human capital of schoolage children and young people. This will require a set of measures targeted at reversing learning

losses, starting from socioemotional support to compensatory learning programs, particularly for more vulnerable children.

There is an opportunity provided by the crisis response. Countries need to enter the phase of Improving and Accelerating Learning. The investments that are being and that will continue to be made in the coming months in technology, connectivity, radio, and TV, etc., should be the launching pad to build educational systems stronger and more equitable than before, a system that closes learning gaps for all children.

What we are now calling “remote learning” is the basis for a more, individualized, continued learning process that ensures that all kids learn the fundamental skills. This will require improvements in connectivity and ed tech readiness, in teachers’ training in digital skills, in the use of artificial intelligence software, and digital tools well-integrated into the curriculum. Using a “schools without walls” concept, learning must continue at home, and students should be reached through radio, TV, and printed material at close reach of all children all the time. There is a real opportunity to “build back better” and use the most effective crisis-recovery strategies as the basis for long-term improvements.

But this will require resources. To start with, the baseline on the financial front is not particularly great. In middle-income countries, expenditures per pupil in primary education are around $1,500 per year, one-sixth of the OECD average; in low-income countries, it is around $150 per year, about one-sixtieth. And the number of children in poor countries is growing fast. There will obviously be space to (in some cases, dramatically) increase efficiency, and in other cases reduce leakage and corruption. But it is unlikely that even the most efficient systems will be able to do much with $150 per student (or even with $1,500). Expanding financial commitment to education in this juncture will be very difficult, but the cost of inaction is immense.

This generation cannot be wasted, and, note that this generation will be paying the debts that all countries are incurring to finance the fight against the pandemic and its economic consequences. We cannot thank them by underinvesting in their human capital. return to table of contents

Croatia: How investing in information technology and digital competencies of students and teachers paid off during the pandemic DIEGO AMBASZ | LUCIA BRAJKOVIC | MAY 26, 2020

Children walk through Zagreb city square.

When coronavirus (COVID-19) first appeared in Croatia on February 25, the country responded swiftly, introducing measures such as travel and public assembly bans, restriction of working hours of grocery stores, closing of non-essential services, and canceling sporting and cultural events. In order to ensure transparency and provide support to its citizens the Government set up a website koronavirus.hr with detailed instructions on public safety, daily updates on the spread of infection, and the implementation of economic measures. It seems that stringent measures introduced by the Civil Protection Directorate, early detection of spread routes, and extensive media coverage have contributed to successful containment of the pandemic in the country.

Among the early measures introduced by the authorities was also the school closure - first in the region of Istria, which is very close to Italy – and soon after nationwide. Even though such disruption in the education process has not been easy for students, parents, and teachers in Croatia, the country’s education system has been very well placed to deal with this situation.

Digitalization of schools and curricular reform created conditions for easier transition to distance learning (DL) In 2015, Croatia launched the pilot of the e-Schools project, providing digital equipment and support tools to 150 schools. The pilot was followed by a nation-wide roll-out that will encompass all schools by 2022. Next, in September 2018 the Ministry of Science and Education (MSE) started the pilot project ‘School for Life’ as part of a comprehensive curricular reform in 74 primary and secondary schools throughout Croatia. The pilot was a precursor to a full introduction of the curricular reform in all schools from September 2019. The reform focused heavily on providing schools with digital technology and equipment and improving digital competences of students and teachers. More than 50 000 teachers participated in these trainings over the course of two years. This experience proved crucial in enabling Croatia’s swift transition to DL. Only two weeks before Government announcement that schools might be closing the Ministry started preparations DL, with a successful launch on the very day that schools closed nationwide - March 16. The virtual classrooms previously used for teacher trainings now became venues for communication with students, information sharing with fellow teachers, and a direct channel to the Ministry.

In addition to the COVID-19 pandemic, Croatian capital, Zagreb, was struck by a very strong (5.5 magnitude) earthquake on March 22, the strongest earthquake to hit the capital in the past 140 years, causing substantial damage to the historical city center and damaging, among others, many schools, kindergartens, universities, and other educational facilities. However, the Ministry was able to resume DL activities immediately after the earthquake, thus preventing further disruption to student learning.

Organization, guiding principles, and available platforms for distance learning In order to provide appropriate modes of DL, the Ministry utilized multiple resources – cooperating with public television to reach the youngest children who cannot use online resources independently. For secondary students, both teachers and the Ministry created 15minute videos covering the curriculum and schedule in order to enable all students to realize planned learning outcomes by the end of the school year. While preparing for DL, the Ministry published instructions for schools - Instructions to all primary and secondary schools for the organization of distance learning and Guidelines for distance learning for primary and secondary schools.

The Ministry based the DL concept on two key principles: 1. “Access has to be provided for every student, taking into account student age; 2. Backup for every solution needs to be prepared.”

In practice, this meant that multiple channels should be used to reach students and parents, with backup solutions. Various venues used for DL include TV channels, YouTube, email, messaging apps, social networks, and different digital platforms (e.g. Moodle, Teams, Yammer).

In order to maintain a balanced student workload and support teachers in preparing teaching plans the Ministry published Recommendations for organizing a students work day in distance teaching and learning. Next, Guidelines for assessment and grading in a virtual environment considered various scenarios for the implementation of the State Matura national exam for secondary school graduates.

Monitoring student participation When it comes to younger students (grades 1-4) who participate in DL through a television channel, teachers have been instructed to connect with their parents virtually – through e-mail, Viber, WhatsApp, etc. Secondary students log in and connect to their virtual classrooms through digital platforms, which makes it easier to monitor their participation. There are specific rules in place to facilitate this monitoring process in case students fail to join their classes – first, the class teacher should contact the parents to gather information about the possible reason for student's absence and offer assistance if needed. If there are students who, despite messages and calls from the teacher, have not yet responded and registered for DL, the teacher should contact the social welfare center – it is considered a red flag when parents do not support their child’s learning and do not cooperate with the school.

Plans and guidelines for reopening of schools and kindergartens On May 7, the Croatian government adopted a decision defining conditions for the normalization of school classes as of Monday, May 11. Under this decision most students will continue with DL for the time being, only kindergarten and primary school students (grades 1-4) will have an option to return to school. The rationale behind this partial reopening is an economic one, aiming to secure continued student learning and childcare for parents of young children who will need to go back to work. However, the Croatian Institute of Public Health encouraged parents to keep children at home whenever possible, since the number of children in kindergartens and schools may be such that the physical distance measures will be difficult to maintain. Children with chronic illnesses or in contact with chronic patients should also not go back to schools, according to the guidance.

Distance learning going forward: Making use of the DL experience and resources to provide added value to traditional teaching and learning In addition to making use of DL in the time of crisis, the ministry of education sees it as an opportunity to add value to traditional teaching and learning in the classroom. With that in mind, the Ministry is currently developing an Action Plan that will also regulate the use of DL in “normal” circumstances. Some suggestions for using DL during regular school year include: •

•

Widening access for students who are (i) temporarily unable to attend regular classes – e.g. students in hospitals or at home due to illness; (ii) talented students with substantial additional commitments – e.g. in sports or music; (iii) students in isolated areas (islands or rural areas); Temporary bridging the shortage of teachers in some areas - e.g. math teacher on an island; and

•

Participating in international communities of practice and knowledge sharing – e.g. eTwinning.

As Croatia is entering its 8th week of DL, we have seen tremendous engagement and dedication of all stakeholders involved – teachers, parents, students, and the government – to ensure the continuation of student learning and their overall well-being. At the same time we are reminded, now more than ever, of the crucial importance of close human and social interaction, peer learning, relationship building, and other benefits of physical school attendance for ensuring a successful and fruitful educational process at all levels. return to table of contents

From coping to improving and accelerating: Supporting teachers in the pandemic and beyond TRACY WILICHOWSKI | CRISTOBAL COBO | MAY 28, 2020

Countries now have an opportunity to build back better and must consider how best to help teachers not only cope through the crisis, but also become better equipped with the skills to succeed in the wake of it.

Averting the damage brought on by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic requires an aggressive education policy response, which involves: i) coping during the crisis to reduce learning loss while schools are closed, ii) managing continuity of learning to promote learning recovery as schools reopen safely, and iii) using the crisis as an opportunity to improve and accelerate, making education systems stronger and more equitable than they were before. Countries now have an opportunity to build back better and must consider how best to help teachers not only cope through the crisis, but also become better equipped with the skills to succeed in the wake of it.

Phase 1: Coping Amid an unprecedented closing of schools, education systems have responded by developing remote learning plans, which rely on multichannel strategies that combine different technologies (print materials, radio, TV, Internet, and/or mobile) and incorporate synchronous and asynchronous learning. Given these new modes of delivery, it is not surprising that many teachers are finding it difficult to navigate this new reality. Often, they are burdened with having

to quickly adapt lesson content they designed to deliver in a physical setting to an online or remote format. The ability to instruct effectively depends on several factors, such as having the appropriate skills and capacity to adapt to the new context, while continuing to interact and effectively engage with learners and caregivers. To appropriately support teachers as they cope through this crisis, it’s crucial that remote learning plans acknowledge the unique constraints of home-based learning.

How to help teachers cope from a distance: Provide actionable guidance for teachers. This should point to ways teachers can become content curators, and provide recommendations so that they do not overwhelm pupils with excessive lectures, lessons plans, and homework. In the U.S., Uganda, Brazil, France, and Ethiopia, this guidance includes easy-to-implement ideas so that teachers can adapt the content from remote learning plans for their needs.

Phase 2: Managing Continuity This crisis has shown that maintaining quality education is not only about hardware (technical infrastructure and connectivity), software (platforms), and content. It requires significant dedication from teachers, who are expected to maintain strong relationships with their students and deliver lesson content remotely, while also managing children’s learning and coping with the stress related to the pandemic. Simultaneously, education systems need to ensure that schools reopen safely, student dropout is minimized, and lost learning can start being recovered. Thus, ensuring a high-quality remote learning experience for all students is predicated on an education system’s ability to provide teachers with technological and pedagogical support to cope in the short term and remain resilient as we all adapt to the new normal.

But technological skills are not enough; simply replicating a lesson designed for an inperson class is ineffective for a remote audience. Teachers’ ability to instruct remotely requires a combination of technological and pedagogical skills. The technological skills cultivate an ability to teach effectively using information and communication technologies (ICT), rather than just training on use of the technology itself. Teachers must learn how to combine multiple modes of delivery (i.e. online, offline, and blended) to effectively facilitate learning.

It is critical to develop teachers’ digital pedagogical skills. These are the skills needed to critically assess and decide when and how to incorporate digital tools, and realistically define their impact to support or enhance learning. This is now more crucial than ever, as teachers who cannot effectively use technology may in the future be replaced (or displaced) by those who can.

How to help teachers manage continuity from a distance: Create peer support programs to encourage connectedness and help teachers transition to remote teaching. To cultivate technological skills, volunteer teachers in Korea are paired with peers who have requested technological support to help plan for online lessons and provide guidance on how to adapt in-person content for a remote audience. Similarly, Estonia has set up an educational technology hotline that teachers can access if they have technological questions. In addition, Finland or Georgia have set up a network of teachers who are responsible for helping their peers integrate technology into their lessons. To cultivate digital pedagogical skills, hundreds of teachers from across the Teach For All network have joined “Teaching without Internet” WhatsApp groups. This group provides a medium for teachers to share strategies for supporting students who lack access to technology or connectivity (radio lessons to support teachers are also broadly adopted).

Use online training to provide teachers with a short “crash course” on how to teach remotely, like this one developed by the United Arab Emirates. In Lebanon, the Ministry of Education and Higher Education is training teachers to use online collaboration tools to support classes and exchange information. Similar courses and webinars have been developed for teachers in the U.K., Canada, Mexico, or Italy.

Phase 3: Improving and Accelerating For teachers to take advantage of remote learning tools, it takes much more preparation, materials, and thought than education systems can prepare in a few days or weeks. With these limitations in mind, it’s important to think beyond how to support teachers and consider how the crisis can be an opportunity to enhance teachers’ skills before they return to the classroom.

As education systems emerge from this crisis, it is clear that a new chapter is waiting to be written with detailed medium- and long-term actions (e.g., increasing investments in remote learning, adopting blended models when schools partially reopen, or creating remedial ecourses), which can help educational systems build back stronger and become more equitable.

As part of this process, it will be crucial to recognize the relevance of developing technological and digital pedagogies for a larger sector of teachers.

Countries will not be able to build back better unless they address these challenges. This will require increasing funding for teacher capacity-building (integrated into formal pre- and inservice teacher trainings) and not only diversifying and innovating the teacher training methods (e.g. virtual coaching) but also activating regular follow-up plans to support the skills developed, using both (remote) tutors and peers.

How to help teachers accelerate and improve from a distance: Provide teachers with virtual coaching. In Lebanon, the teacher coaching, which is normally carried out in faceto-face sessions, is moving online.This innovation will start when schools resume to ensure teachers in hard-toreach areas benefit as much as those in urban and more accessible locations. It’s important to caveat, for virtual coaching to work effectively, coaches should get guidance (and ideally training) on how to provide feedback remotely, as like teaching, coaching in person is quite different from coaching remotely.

To supplement the support they receive from coaches, provide teachers with instructional videos. For instance, in Cambodia and India, rural teachers receive video lessons that exemplify the teaching of culturally relevant, curricula-aligned content using student-centered pedagogy. This gives teachers a model lesson to follow – similar efforts have been replicated throughout the developing world using interactive radio instruction. The

support is interactive; using conference calls or social media, coaches facilitate group reflection and dialogue about the teachers’ pedagogical practices observed in the videos.

Facilitate remote trainings that reinforce what teachers learned in previous face-to-face trainings. For instance, in Zambia, teachers and ministry representatives are being trained to become master trainers; they are divided into WhatsApp groups based on their geography. They are given a practical and hands-on video on a specific topic once a week through WhatsApp, and also have a conference call to facilitate a more in-depth discussion.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a stress test for education systems all over the world, but it is also an opportunity to share lessons globally. Countries have responded in innovative ways, whether by rapidly mobilizing existing digital resources or by developing these resources from scratch.

We’re curious to hear your success stories. Please reach out to Cristobal Cobo to share stories that have provided education continuity during crisis.

In case you missed it, please watch our latest event, Strengthening Teacher Effectiveness During COVID-19, featuring the World Bank’s new note (and blog) on key principles for ensuring teacher effectiveness during COVID-19. return to table of contents

Under pressure: COVID-19 and the funding of European higher education NINA ARNHOLD | FRANK ZIEGELE | JUSSI KIVISTÖ | JUNE 02, 2020

Three little pigs

Once upon a time there were three little pigs. Each built a house: one from straw, one from sticks, and one from bricks. One day, the big bad wolf came to eat the little pigs. He blew the first house down, then the second house. But he couldn’t blow the third house down, and the little pigs survived.

Fast forward to 2020. The wolf threatening European and international higher education is the coronavirus (COVID-19). Institutions are closed, struggling to put together online learning on short notice and to keep their students virtually close while few if any remain on campus. The little pigs look at each other and wonder: which house is going to survive?

The “houses” we’re talking about are the financial foundations of European higher education systems. To simplify, there are three basic models: the privately funded one (“the house of the market”), the publicly funded one (“the house of public good”), and “the house with a diversified base.” While the wolf is making his way through the village, which houses will he blow down?

The house of the market Let’s start with an archetypical “house of the market,” which is mostly funded privately but still relies heavily on state funds: the UK model. With about half its funding coming from private sources (and a sizable chunk from EU sources) in recent years, this house looks particularly vulnerable now. Looking exclusively at 2019/20 impacts and the case of 2020/21 international student fees, Universities UK initially calculated a £6.9 billion fallout from private funds. Later, more conservative calculations put the emerging “black hole” at £2.5 billion. In early May, the

government announced that there wouldn’t be a multibillion-pound bailout for universities and instead allowed institutions to charge full tuition fees during the lockdown, while universities will be able to enroll up to 5 percent more students. This has not only angered students and their organizations; around one fifth of potential applicants are reconsidering their plans to enter higher education.

International students, who are charged significantly higher fees, also play a crucial role. They go to the United Kingdom to learn, but also for the developmental and social experience. If you subtract this and the university isn’t a brand recognized around the world, is the residual sufficient to attract students? In the UK, like in the United States, elite institutions will be able to fill the open spots from waiting lists and lower-tier institutions. But this option won’t be available for all institutions, and the pressure on lower-tier institutions will be enormous. If you base your university funding on markets, of course you become vulnerable to market developments. For many years, it was a highly attractive option to see higher education as a globally tradable good you could sell to foreign and especially overseas students at high prices. Many universities relied heavily on such income to cross-subsidize other activities. It might continue to work for the happy few with top reputations, but for many other institutions the house built with straw might break down because of COVID-19.

The house of the public good The house of the public good is still standing, seemingly benefiting from the fact that it resisted the temptations of the market, based on the strong belief that higher education should be financed from public budgets. In some European countries, the idea has prevailed that studying should indeed be “free,” for domestic students as well as those from abroad (de facto shifting the costs of higher education from those who benefit most to all taxpayers). In Germany, the public share of university funding is 86 percent, there are no tuition fees for German students, and people from outside Europe pay a small tuition in only one of the 16 states. Similarly, in Finland, public funding covers roughly 92 percent of institutional expenditure, with education free of charge for domestic and EU students. Even though universities can charge fees to foreign students, the net revenue from fees has so far been insignificant.

The Finnish and the German cases illustrate why the house of the public good is currently still standing: in the short run, there seems to be no limit on public spending and public debt during the crisis. Politicians now see their mission as saving all industries and groups suffering from the crisis, providing packages with billions of euros. There is high sensitivity to the problems it would cause if educational institutions are not able to do their job. The universities don’t have to face cutbacks; the public sources just keep on bubbling. Some German states even decided on additional funding: Hesse, for example, added almost 40 million euros to universities’ budgets in March, and in April invested more than 110 million euros in digitalization. In Finland, the government is preparing to offer universities additional funding to expand annual enrollment.

With public funds cushioning universities from external impacts, they seem comfortably independent from developments in the market. Public universities in these countries keep going, with online teaching but no major revision of plans for financial reasons.

So, can the “public good little pig” stay safe in its stable house? Definitely not, since it is most likely the next to be shattered or even blown away, although with some delay. Public budgets are running into enormous deficits, and cutbacks will eventually come. In Germany, in 1995, 80 percent of university funds came from public funding; 20 years later it was only 50 percent.

There wasn’t a replacement by private income; rather, state and federal governments largely increased competitive program funding. Public programs have a limited time horizon; they are the first to expire if budgets are in fiscal stress, with dire consequences for academic staff employed under these programs. Universities will soon compete with schools for scarce funding in the education sector, with the public more aware of the challenges facing schools. In Finland, there seems to be a political commitment to keep at least current levels of funding, but it is likely that higher education will not escape austerity measures forever, whatever form they take.

Therefore, future cutbacks can and will be done quite easily. A house built almost exclusively on public funds will stand a bit longer, but is not really able to protect the little pigs in the long run.

The house with a diversified base: the way forward?

The COVID-19 crisis offers many lessons for higher education. One is that no monolithic funding system protects universities, academics, and students in a crisis. As the examples have shown, private as well as public funding systems suffer sooner or later, though in different ways. But having multiple funding sources can spread the risks. Higher education needs to learn from the risk-diversification strategies of investors and not put all eggs in one basket, so that the sector becomes more innovative in its use of funding instruments.

This leads to a few recommendations to governments on how to build a robust brick house.

First, the erosion of public funding of higher education, combined with reliance on market income, is a highly problematic strategy, putting the sector at risk. Budgets for tertiary education will need to be protected going forward. The sector will continue to make a key contribution to countries’ economic development; this is not going to change due to COVID-19. Thus, maintaining a dynamic and equitable higher education sector should remain high on the agenda for European governments. A solid and reliable public funding base is complementary, not contradictory to entrepreneurial universities looking for market revenues.

Second, governments should diversify the funding base with clever public stimuli and incentive systems. A good example is Sweden: 6,000 short-term “summer school” study places at universities will be created this year with additional government funding, to stimulate lifelong learning and employability for Swedish workers who are endangered by the crisis. The Netherlands has been using “innovation vouchers” for many years: small and medium-sized enterprises can pay for knowledge transfers they receive from higher education institutions using publicly funded vouchers. Innovations from such collaborations will be highly relevant to recovery from the crisis. They could be important bricks for building a stable house.

Third, the crisis is a good moment to reconsider the viability of higher education systems that are exclusively (or almost exclusively) publicly funded. Have they reached their full potential in terms of quality of teaching and research as well as international competitiveness? Has this model created a more equitable tertiary education sector? Or was it simply the most convenient solution to maintain peace and quiet at home? If the latter, is this a luxury that countries will still

be able to afford? International experience shows that fees alone cannot raise quality, but they can be introduced in an equitable way, for example, in combination with income-contingent loan models.

But introducing old medicines to treat new diseases is far from easy in the “houses of public good.� In Finland, an expert report on COVID recovery strategy recently proposed introducing tuition fees for domestic students. It was hardly a surprise that the proposal met a political and public outcry, and the Minister of Science and Culture decisively shot down the proposal immediately after the report was published. The case was closed even before it was really opened.

Diversification of financial sources requires not only that governments allow and support related options, but also requires adequate institutional management. It means focusing more on strategic and risk management. Institutions must assess their sources according to the probability and volume of potential losses and create strategies to mitigate these risks.

It might thus depend on the strength and persistence of huffing and puffing by the big bad wolf whether governments and higher education institutions are able to learn the lessons from the crisis of 2020. return to table of contents

Learning equity during the coronavirus: Experiences from Africa SALMAN ASIM | SHELBY FRANCES CARVALHO | RAVINDER GERA | JUNE 03, 2020

School Building in Malawi: Khuzi Public Primary school Malawi

Nearly all countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have closed schools to slow the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Closures in some places will last through the end of the school year and could continue into the next. While many countries are turning to distance learning strategies, it is difficult to ensure that these provide equitable learning opportunities for all pupils.

This is particularly true in Africa, where access to technology is low. Internet access is below 5 percent of the population in Burundi, the Central African Republic (CAR), and Eritrea; mobile phone access just 36 percent in CAR; radio, 35 percent in Mozambique; and access to television, less than 10 percent in Burundi, CAR, Chad, and Madagascar1. A recent analysis finds that even after substantial growth in distance learning across the region over the past two months, only 4 percent of children here are accessing any form of it, mostly via television. This indicates that non-technology solutions are needed to reach many learners in the region.

The World Bank’s recent Facing Forward report highlights substantial differences in the maturity of education systems across Africa. It classifies countries into four categories based on their system-level development over the last 25 years – established, emerged, emerging, and delayed.

Many established and emerged systems are better prepared to deploy fast-track information communication technology (ICT) interventions. Access to distance learning is high in established systems, including Kenya and South Africa, and disproportionately low in francophone countries, many of which have emerging or delayed systems.

The pandemic provides an opportunity to accelerate progress in delayed and emerging education systems, yet this requires solutions to align closely with system needs, capacity, and local preferences.

Delayed systems – extreme shortages in access to technology Countries in the delayed category have some of the highest rates of extreme poverty in the world and face other severe challenges that can close schools, including prolonged conflict, repeated crises, and persistent instability. When schools close for prolonged periods in poor and fragile states, the prevalence of child labor, sexual exploitation, and recruitment into armed groups can increase. The risk is also higher that students don’t return when schools reopen, making it critically important to keep them connected to learning opportunities during closures.

Unfortunately, these same countries have both low connectivity and few existing distance learning platforms. Establishing new systems for distance learning can be complex, time consuming, and expensive even in advanced systems; it’s significantly more challenging in delayed systems. A few delayed countries, including Eritrea and Chad, have not yet made any plans for distance learning or school reopening.

For some delayed systems, distance learning through television (available to 26% of the population in these countries) or computers (4%)ii is unlikely to reach much of the population. Hence digital distance learning strategies are not just costly but risk becoming fragmented and failing to keep kids learning. It’s also more difficult for parents to support homebased learning in these countries, where the average adult literacy rate is below 50 percent.iii Limited connectivity does not need to mean that learning stops while schools are closed. In contrast to computers and television, access to radio (58%) and mobile phones (71%) is comparatively high, providing an opportunity to leverage low-cost technology solutions that reach more learners. Evidence from several African countries suggests that engaging with teachers via SMS and phone calls, or through pre-recorded lessons, can support remote learning even in places without data connectivity. Senegal is piloting distance learning that can be adapted for mobile, radio, or television. In some countries, ministries of education are working with mobile providers to increase access to digital content via mobile phones. This includes removing fees for accessing education content, lifting data caps, creating public internet hot spots, running SMS campaigns, and distributing SIM cards.

Delayed and emerging systems will also benefit more from printed self-learning kits. In Sudan, the government is developing plans to deliver self-guided learning materials through a newspaper in order to reach households with no access to technology. In Somalia, the government plans to distribute printed materials and pre-recorded lessons that students can listen to over the phone. With access even to electricity below 40 percentiv in delayed system countries, providing self-learning kits might work better and be more cost-effective than supplying radios or tablets that may never reach the target population.

Emerging systems – diverse solutions to reach diverse populations Emerging system countries require a strategic mix of responses, including distance learning via radio (accessible to 53% of the population here) and television (33%). Most countries in this category - including Ethiopia, Malawi, and Zambia - are developing response and recovery strategies.

Ethiopia’s Ministry of Education is advising that primary school students follow radio lessons and secondary students follow television lessons, while encouraging all parents to home school their children. Yet relying on online, radio, and television risks exacerbating already wide education divides between rural and urban areas. More than 40 percent of households in three of Ethiopia’s regions lack access to any form of technology, versus just 1 percent of families in Addis Ababa.v In Madagascar, the government is leveraging existing infrastructure to offer French and mathematics lessons for primary school students via television and radio. However, plans are still needed to reach the more than 60 percent who have neither radio nor television.

Moving forward Efforts to ensure equity and mitigate learning loss will be particularly important in delayed and emerging systems to keep those at the bottom of the learning pyramid from being left further behind. As systems work toward reopening, learning loss will need to be addressed through solutions including simplified and accelerated curriculums, additional support to teachers and the broader education workforce, and the maintenance of education budgets.

The crisis also affects household expenditure on education. A recent survey finds 85 percent of people in Senegal (a delayed system country) have already seen a drop in income; more than a third report eating less food daily amid the pandemic. Remittances, an important source of household support and education spending in some delayed and emerging countries, are also projected to decline sharply, further stretching household budgets. Cross-sectoral collaboration between education and other sectors can help scale up existing social protection in delayed and emerging countries; these programs should target both the existing and new poor to ensure that education gaps do not widen further. Experts argue that acting quickly in the poorest countries to protect the most vulnerable requires leveraging institutions and programs already in place. Expanding services could involve community-based targeting or selftargeting as well as leverage local governments and non-state institutions where system capacity is low.

Delayed and emerging systems often have different capacities and needs. Hence as countries look to their neighbors for solutions, there is a danger of imitating them instead of designing strategies that align well with their own level of system capacity and their existing technology and education infrastructure. Countries have an unprecedented opportunity to build back better following the pandemic, but solutions need to align with their education systems and socioeconomic realities and draw on local, low-cost solutions.

(i) Data reflect the most recent round of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) survey data available from each country. Burundi (2017); Central African Republic (2010); Chad (2015); Eritrea (2002); Ethiopia (2016); Madagascar (2016); Mozambique (2018). (ii) Average for some delayed systems including Burkina Faso (2018), Chad (2015), Central African Republic (2010), Guinea (2018), Liberia (2013), Mali (2018), Niger (2012), and Senegal (2017), using DHS data reflecting the most recent round available for each country. (iii) Average adult literacy rate (% of people age 15 and above) calculated for delayed countries using the most year available for each country from the World Bank World Development Indicators. (iv) Average electricity access (% of population with access to electricity) calculated for delayed countries using the most year available for each country from the World Bank World Development Indicators. (v) Average electricity access (% of population with access to electricity) calculated for delayed countries using the most year available for each country from the World Bank World Development Indicators.

return to table of contents

Helping Ethiopia fight COVID-19 and the “Infodemic” BIRUK TEKLE GEBREYOHANNES | JUNE 05, 2020

Ethiopia

Since the news of Ethiopia’s first case of coronavirus (COVID-19) on March 13, various measures have been taken to counter its spread, including the declaration of a national state of emergency on April 8. The country has banned public gatherings of more than four people until September, and stringent public health measures aimed at curtailing the spread of the virus were also introduced. A regulation is in effect that makes wearing coverings over the nose and mouth compulsory while in public, and transport operators are restricted to 50 percent capacity.

Despite the strict measures taken relatively early, by June 4 there were 1636 confirmed cases with eighteen fatalities reported; the country had conducted 125,570 tests.

CDT-Africa at the Africa Innovation Week with some products in display at the African Union (Oct/Nov 2019) . Copyright: World Bank Group

The Centre for Innovative Drug Development and Therapeutic Trials for Africa (CDT-Africa) got heavily involved in COVID-19 response early on, in Ethiopia and across Africa. CDT-Africa is a World Bank–supported center for teaching and research that is based in Ethiopia under the regional Eastern and Southern Africa Center of Excellence Project (ACE-II). It joined the global COVID-19 clinical research coalition (https://covid19crc.org/), an association of 70 institutions from 30 countries that aims to “fast-track research that will provide evidence on COVID-19 prevention, diagnosis, and case management in resource-limited settings.” CDT-Africa has also established an Advisory Committee on Clinical Trials (ACT), which works to strengthen and streamline ethics and regulatory processes nationally. The committee is now supporting guideline development and coordination of clinical trials to address the COVID-19 pandemic.

Countries across the globe have had to introduce measures to curb the spread of false news related to the pandemic. CDT-Africa is serving an increasingly important role in fighting the spread of misinformation across Ethiopia and the region. The problem is exacerbated by social media, with false information spreading like wildfire, even prompting the WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, to acknowledge that “false news spreads faster and more easily than the virus.” Ensuring widespread access to accurate information from official sources as well as improving transparency helps combat false information about the virus, which is imperative for maintaining social commitment to curb its spread.

Some of the regional students of CDT-Africa at the center’s Innocafe, under its regional incubation hub. / World Bank Group

The center has established a knowledge synthesis team that aims to provide timely, reliable information on COVID-19 to officials and the public. Its coordinator, Dr. Abebaw Fekadu, says that, “every morning a team of CDT-Africa scientists holds a Zoom meeting to discuss the latest developments. The information garnered from prominent official sources is curated, analyzed and synthesized, and a daily update is produced and sent to the Ethiopian Ministry of Health to help with producing reliable official information on COVID-19 and develop treatment guidelines.”

These daily updates are posted on CDT-Africa’s website and social media channels to ensure availability to the wider public.

To contribute to Ethiopia’s fight against the pandemic, CDT-Africa is also involved in the production of a natural antiseptic and the development of personal protection equipment (PPE).

And with a focus on future recovery and resilience, CDT-Africa is involved in developing and implementing clinical trials and clinical research relevant to the control of COVID-19. The center is conducting systematic reviews to investigate the potential for use of traditional herbal medicines in the fight against COVID-19 and supporting ethics guideline development for emergency use of traditional herbal medicines.

All these interventions by the center demonstrate that creating capacity in higher education, particularly in the fields of science and technology, is crucial for developing countries to addresses the challenges posed by emergency situations. return to table of contents

School leadership in uncertain times HARRIET NANNYONJO | CHERYL ANN FERNANDO | AZAD OOMMEN | SAMEER SAMPAT | JUNE 08, 2020

School principal at work

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has forced almost all countries to close their schools. At the peak of the crisis, about 1.6 billion children across the world were not at school.

School leaders bear the primary responsibility of ensuring the well-being of their personnel and students and finding ways to ensure that students are learning while in-school learning is suspended. A survey of over 1,800 leaders across 12 countries found that more than 70% of principals felt that the well-being of students in their school was their primary responsibility.

Because they have the respect of their communities as well as personal relationships with students and their families, school leaders are uniquely positioned to guide families in many respects.

Speaking with education officials from governments in four countries, during a recent webinar hosted by Global School Leaders, it was clear that education systems should be delivering four clear messages to school leaders to improve student well-being and engagement through this crisis and as they move toward reopening schools: 1. Focus on basic needs first Before we think about online learning and reopening of schools, we need to make sure that children’s basic needs like food, health, and emotional well-being are met. George Werner, Liberia’s Minister of Education during the 2014-15 Ebola crisis, said,

“You have to think as a leader, what happens when the shadow of COVID-19 begins to fade. We need to take school health more seriously than ever before, and it needs to be part of our strategic planning.”

Additionally, he highlighted the need to prepare teachers and school leaders to meet the psychosocial needs of children who have been through difficult circumstances. Programs that addressed students’ psychological needs in Liberia during the Ebola crisis, including a peacebuilding effort and arts program for children, were found to improve student well-being.

2. Focus on the most marginalized and at-risk children The COVID-19 crisis is severely impacting individuals who are already marginalized relative to other groups and will likely widen the existing gaps between students from poor families and well-off families, as well as between male and female students. Dr. Praveen Kumar, the leader of the Telangana Social Welfare Residential Educational Institutions Society, a network of over 250 residential government schools for some of the most marginalized children in India, had this to say: ”The interest of those at-risk children must be at the core of the strategy for every school leader.”

When schools reopen, students will have different needs, and resources will need to be prioritized to match those needs. Initial focus should be on the needs of the most marginalized children so that the inequalities exposed by the COVID crisis are not exacerbated.

3. Focus on engaging the community through communication and collaboration While many challenges with connectivity remain, schools and leaders are becoming more connected digitally to the parents and communities of their students as a result of the COVID crisis. School leaders can play a critical role in ensuring school-community connection continues to be strengthened to support student learning and build confidence. Dr. Sara Ruto, the Chairperson of the Kenyan Institute of Curriculum Development (KICD) and Chairperson of the Kenyan Ministry of Education’s COVID Response, provided an innovative example of how this increased connectivity can be used by leaders to improve the critical skills of social-emotional learning for students. She observed, “[The crisis] is giving energy to some of the pillars of the curriculum that had not found voice before.

For example, parental engagement, empowerment, and values-based education. These (i.e., valuesbased education) are things children need to see, touch, and grow with. And home is the first place where this happens. School leaders should use this opportunity to engage parents to ensure such learning takes place.”

Supporting school leaders as they continue to engage communities and families during and after the crisis will also be critical to reducing anxiety and building confidence to return to school and support children’s learning.

4. Embrace new opportunities to focus on learning During the COVID crisis, school leaders and teachers in many countries are working in an uncomfortable situation with little prior experience to guide them in their responsibilities. As a result, educators are innovating and finding their own ways to focus on the needs of the

students. Dr. Iwan Syahril, the recently appointed Director General for Teachers and Education Personnel in the Ministry of Education and Culture in Indonesia, captured this when he said, “We are becoming comfortable with the uncomfortable. We’ve been talking about student-centered learning for ages. [COVID] is giving us the trust that this is okay. You don’t just teach your curriculum, but you look at your students and start there. This is an opportunity to reimagine the curriculum and ensure that each student is learning” There is evidence that orienting schools, school leaders, and teachers to focus on meeting students at their level can improve outcomes. The COVID crisis presents an opportunity to have school leaders realign their roles and support teachers to focus on doing what is best for their students.

A strong response by school leaders is more urgent now than ever before to mitigate the disruption children are facing as they continue to be out of school. Education systems need to empower and support school leaders to focus on student success. As governments develop and refine strategies to address the impact of COVID across sectors, it’s important to embody the message delivered by Minister Werner when he said, "To close schools during a crisis like this is to ask our youngest generation to make a tremendous sacrifice on behalf of its elders. The way to honor that sacrifice, when the coronavirus crisis abates, is to put learning for every child at the heart of the recovery. We owe them nothing less."

These key messages mean that school leaders and their associations should be part of developing the school reopening strategy. Panelists were clear that one cannot discuss school reopening without engaging school leaders.

The COVID-19 pandemic has also highlighted the imperative of training school leaders on aspects of community partnerships, communication, and instructional leadership. return to table of contents

World Bank funded Uganda’s Africa Center of Excellence (ACE) PHARMBIOTRAC on the frontline of COVID-19 response MAULSHREE GANGWAR | ROBERTA MALEE BASSETT | JUNE 10, 2020

Left: Composing the ingredients for the PharmSan Hand Sanitizer Gel using a motorized stirrer at controllable speed; Center: Packed products ready for the market; Right: PharmSan sanitizer on the shelf at Fresca Supermarket, one of the largest supermarkets in Mbarara.

On March 30, one week after the first coronavirus (COVID-19) case was confirmed in Uganda, the country of 42.86 million people went into a lockdown. As of June 9, the number of infected people has increased to 657 with 118 recovered and no deaths so far. Much like other countries around the globe, Uganda has also instituted various efforts to minimize the social and economic impacts of the pandemic. Uganda’s National Security Council has set up an InterAgency Joint Task Force (JTF) at national and regional levels to support the Ministry of Health (MOH). Similarly, the Ministry of Science Technology and Innovation (MoSTI) has established a research technology and innovation task team to deliberate on appropriate scientific research, technologies and innovations to combat the virus.

Supporting the country’s efforts, the World Bank-funded Africa Center of Excellence (ACE) PHARMBIOTRAC (Pharm-Biotechnology and Traditional Medicine) has been instrumental in providing their expertise to the government by being an integral part of the scientific task force.

PHARMBIOTRAC was established in 2017 at the Mbarara University of Science & Technology (MUST) to address the challenges of low life expectancy and productivity due to communicable and non-communicable diseases, through “building a critical mass of specialized and skilled human resource that can advance traditional medicine and Pharm-Biotechnology for socio-economic development of Africa”.

Following its vision, faced with the existing pandemic, the center has sprang into action to help the local community respond to COVID-19. The center leader, Dr. Casim Umba Tolo runs a new project, PharmSan Innovations focused on manufacturing of quality hand sanitizers. With the COVID-19 crisis, a team was assembled at PHARMBIOTRAC in late March to formalize PharmSan and fast-track the production of hand sanitizers. With increasing demand and growing prices, there was an urgent need for the center to develop a product that followed World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines and was also affordable for the local population. Following indepth review of existing literature, trial formulations and critical quality control measures, the team was able to produce the optimum formula that is in accordance with the Uganda National Bureau of Standards (UNBS).

After jumping through legal and marketing hoops with support from center’s Chair for Innovation & Business Management, Eng. Anke Weisheit, the hand sanitizers were in supermarkets and pharmacies in Mbarara town starting in March, being sold at much lower prices than its counterparts. It has been well received and accepted by the community. The center has also donated sanitizers to security staff at MUST, Police force in Mbarara, and staff at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital. From production to market, the entire process takes about 2 weeks, and the team is now working rigorously towards optimizing the process further to enhance the quality and quantity while maintaining the low price.

In the long-term, the goal of this initiative is to continue providing inexpensive and high-quality hand sanitizers to the local population, which are usually in short supply. Being a university project, the overall legal entity is MUST with the ACE being the biggest stakeholder in this innovation. To meet regulatory requirements of UNBS, standards for production of sanitizers has already been purchased and it will be followed by an audit by UNBS before registration and certification of the products. Following this, each product will be produced with highest quality using a similar protocol. The ACE is already discussing opportunities to form a legal company with regulatory bodies and ACE management. A perfect example of spin off from science to practice, and income generation!

The pandemic has offered an opportunity to build experience in emergency response and to innovate using minimal resources. The team at PHARMBIOTRAC has been extremely innovative in finding ways through unique non institutional resource pooling like private funds and fundraising campaigns. Even though this project was not planned within existing budgets, they are extremely important in responding to this pandemic and in the long run, contributing to increasing industrial development, job creation and economic growth for Uganda and the region.

The Eastern and Southern Africa Higher Education Centers of Excellence Project (ACE II) is an innovative regional higher education operation targeting 8 countries Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia. The Project aims at strengthening the capacity of higher education institutions to deliver quality post-graduate education and collaborative research. With a competitive and transparent process involving independent evaluation of international experts, 24 centers in 5 regional priority cluster areas of industry, agriculture, health, education and applied statistics have been selected from the 8 participating countries. The ACE II is funded by a US$148 million International Development Association (IDA) credit from the World Bank targeting the 24 Centers of Excellence. The ACEII Project is being coordinated and managed by a regional facilitation unit (RFU), the Inter-University Council of East Africa (IUCEA), under a Regional Steering Committee which comprises of heads of higher education of the ministries of education. Each ACEII center is headed by a center leader and staffed with key personnel necessary for project implementation.

return to table of contents

The Escuela Nueva Learning Circles: learning in emergency situations PEDRO CERDAN | EDUARDO VELEZ BUSTILLO | VICKY COLBERT | JUNE 15, 2020

Freder and his mother Graciela review his homework

Freder, a seven-year-old boy from the community of El Carmen in Fonseca, Guajira in Colombia continues to learn at home on his own. When he needs support, he calls on his mother, Graciela, to help him with some activity proposed in the self-learning guides designed for the Learning Circles, an educational innovation used in Colombia to support children in emergency situations.

If Freder manages to continue learning in this kind of “home schooling” adaptation of the Learning Circles, it will be a big success story.

The Escuela Nueva Learning Circles (ENLC) were designed to provide high quality education to children displaced by violence and other emergencies. The ENLC are an adaptation of the Escuela Nueva child-centered pedagogical model to provide quality education for out of school children, hard to reach children in vulnerable social situations due to poverty, health and natural emergencies or political conflict that forces displacement. The initiative, developed by the Colombian NGO Fundación Escuela Nueva, FEN, has successfully accelerated the integration of out-of-school children displaced by violence into the educational system, understood and supported their unique psychosocial needs and improved their learning outcomes. The model was initially piloted in Soacha, Colombia for displaced populations, and has been applied subsequently in different settings for vulnerable populations.

How do they work?

The ENLC, recognized by the Ministry of Education (MOE), operate off-site from the formal “mother schools” but are officially linked to them through shared regular curriculum, academic

calendars, grading systems and extracurricular programs. Children learn in these circles in groups of around 15 students with the aid of a tutor that facilitates learning providing personalized attention to children using community centers, local churches, and family homes until they are ready to transfer to the “mother school.” The location in the community provides a safe, caring and protective environment where the personalized and extra socio-affective support restores and strengthens children´s self-esteem, develops social and life skills as well as a joyful learning experience. It is now widely accepted that development of social skills, such as conflict management, group work, and acceptance of diverse opinions, is necessary to succeed in social life and work in today’s world.

Results from the pilot project The evaluation of the pilot demonstrated improvements in coverage and academic achievements on national standardized tests, and strengthened democratic behaviors, peaceful coexistence and self-esteem of students. The ENLC achieved full enrollment, increased children’s self-esteem by 18.5% and obtained the highest level of improvement in both language and math, placing children of the ENLC 13.9 and 17.3 points, respectively, above the national average.

Table 1

Escuela Nueva Learning Cycles School Model Math scores by intervention Beginning of Cycle-April

End of Cycle-November

Score improvement

Exp 1

Exp 1

Exp 1

44.6

Comparison Exp 2 51.3

38.9

61.8

Comparison Exp 2 51.8

69.3

17.2

Comparison Exp 2 0.5

30.4

Exp 1: new students in conventional schools; Control classroom (traditional method); Exp 2: new students in Escuela Nueva Learning Circles. Source: International Organization for Migration, IOM

Learning Circles and Migrants The situation of internally displaced children in Colombia has been further complicated by the significant number of Venezuelan children that have migrated with their families, thus increasing the need for special education services. As of June 2019, more than 400.000 school aged migrant children lived in Colombia and only 10 percent had enrolled formally in school (World Bank, 2019). The regular system was not ready for their needs. The methods of conventional schools assume that children learn at the same pace and have a similar knowledge base. Their frontal, teacher-centered methods with whole class instruction makes it extremely difficult for these children to succeed. To address the educational needs of these children, UNICEF and FEN, with support from the World Bank, set up in 2019 a program of Escuela Nueva Learning Circles in six cities of Colombia. Children work in groups of 15 with self-learning guides and a lighter curriculum in terms of content but stronger in life skills.

Learning Circles in the pandemic As ENLC started to be implemented for displaced and migrant children the Coronavirus pandemic hit Colombia. In the context of the quarantine that followed, the program rapidly

adjusted to implement an adapted version of the ENLC to support isolated low-income students that may have barriers in access to regular internet services.

The rapid adaptation is applied family by family using, primarily, cell phones. It has three elements: i) use of learning materials delivered to each child (photocopy or originals of guides, workbooks, supplies); ii) delivery of written guidelines to parents or other adults responsible for the children with information on how the tutors and others will support children through phone calls or virtual media when available; iii) rigorous use of the structure, timetables and activities of the learning guides so children learn at their own pace and the tutors can monitor their progress and provide the required support.

There is a clear path to monitor the program, including periodic individual phone calls.

WhatsApp groups and other ways of interaction among students and tutors, use of photos, videos and audio messages sent by tutors or by children and parents; and evaluation of progress, feedback and guidance are all utilized as needed.

The adaptation of the ENLC by FEN is also relevant today for other countries. In effect, due to the education crisis created by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic more than 1.3 billion students are out of schools, supposedly getting education through virtual media. In Colombia and elsewhere, millions of children and families experience multiple barriers to education. Most of these are low-income family children and rural children for many of whom online education is not an option. So, the potential for excluded children to benefit from education by using this type of appropriate and efficient education model is huge.

UNICEF, MOE and the World Bank are planning an evaluation of the program and its adaptation that may provide useful information to help an important group of vulnerable students. If Freder manages to continue learning at home through the adaptation of the Learning Circles, he not only will be ready to eventually enter a regular school, but his academic performance will be higher than the average Colombian student of his age. return to table of contents

Learning despite the crisis: the case of Edo State in Nigeria MARTĂ?N E. DE SIMONE | AISHA GARBA | GLORIA JOSEPH-RAJI | JOAN OSA OVIAWE | ANDREW RAGATZ | ALEX TWINOMUGISHA | JUNE 16, 2020

Children in Edo State engage in remote learning

With 253 million learners living in countries affected by school closures due to coronavirus (COVID-19) in 47 sub-Saharan African countries, the region is facing a major crisis affecting learning. Nigeria is on top of the list, with almost 45 million learners affected nationwide.

The crisis might not only affect learning in the short term, having other negative effects such as discontinued school feeding programs, but might also create long term consequences in the accumulation of human capital across the continent.

Finding innovative solutions is an urgent priority, not only to mitigate the learning loss but also to avoid flattening the education curve. While most of the solutions typically discussed are from high- or middle-income countries, there are programs that are helping education systems adapt to the crisis in the developing world. The case of Edo state, in Nigeria, is paradigmatic.

The state has been adapting its flagship EdoBest program, which goal is to address the low levels of human capital formation and the high learning poverty, to a home-based version. Since its inception in 2018, EdoBest was conceived as a whole-system reform approach that leverages modern digital technologies backed by the science of learning to improve teaching and learning processes, by providing continuous teacher support and real-time monitoring of learning inputs, attendance, and learning outcomes.

The new adaptation of the program, which started as a response to COVID-19, is called EdoBest@Home. What does it imply? While the adaptation is comprehensive and dynamic, there are key elements worth mentioning.

First, the state is incorporating digital self-study activity packages that are distributed online (with zero data internet access) and via applications such as WhatsApp. These packets contain hundreds of practice problems for all grades for different thematic areas and answer keys with feedback for parents or caregivers.

But this content is not enough in the context of relatively low access to the internet (Figure 1).

Thus, the state is developing a multi-channel approach that includes lessons through audio files for remote learning. These remote lessons are tailored to different grades and designed in an interactive way that includes health and sanitation messages.

The state is also developing interactive quizzes delivered to parents’ mobile phones. These quizzes are aligned with the state curriculum, and they interrelate with other resources such as digital storybooks and lesson guides delivered to parents. To maximize the interaction between learners and teachers, the government is also working on the deployment of mobile tutors and an online help desk to provide real-time feedback.

Simultaneously, the government is taking advantage of the school closures to conduct a comprehensive cleaning of the schools, strengthen its education system, and prepare for schools reopening through a well-thought strategy and preventive measures. In addition, the government aims to keep the learning at home aspects as an integral part of the EdoBest initiative, and not just as a short-term response to the COVID-19 crisis. This will allow the education sector to increase its resilience to future shocks and benefit students with remedial education to address learning gaps.

How did the government reach such a high level of adaptability and resilience?

While multiple factors contribute to this success, there are at least three features that seem relevant and might be applied in other locations. •

•

•

Strong government leadership and ownership of the initiative. Through the Edo State Universal Basic Education Board, the government has shown a high commitment, that, in fact, preceded the COVID19 crisis, and was reflected in the design of the EdoBest program, which aims to transform the public education system and improve learning outcomes of a generation using technology. Edo state was in a unique position to quickly pivot towards remote learning because the government had been building its resilience for several years. The learning materials and lessons plans were already digitized and teachers were familiar and comfortable with the use of digital technologies, showing that investments in edtech might pay off in the least expected moments.

Public-private partnerships have been essential, and the program is benefiting from a strong alliance between the government, the private sector, and the World Bank. The private sector has brought its expertise in education governance, teacher development, instructional design, community projects, and educational technology. The government provides its resources and its ground presence in more than 1,500 public primary and junior secondary schools. The World Bank will be supporting the program with technical assistance and results-based financial resources.

A high degree of context-specificity. Edo state suffers from limited internet access, and in many cases, parents are not fully equipped to act as primary teachers. Data from the Demographic and Health Survey shows that only 46% of households possess a radio, 69% a television, but 91% have a mobile phone (Figure 1). The percentage of households

with access to at least one of them is presumably higher. The multi-channel structure of the program under implementation takes those constraints into consideration.

Going forward, and with World Bank support, the Edo Government intends to scale up EdoBest to cover both primary and secondary education and to integrate the EdoBest@Home program so that students can learn anytime, anywhere. By blending learning at school and learning at home and using digital technologies, Edo State is at the forefront of reimagining education.

The program will certainly not be perfect, and learning losses will be inevitable, but the current situation demands “harm-reduction” education policies that can mitigate the risks and minimize inequalities. Thus, investing in education through innovative approaches that can reach everyone is imperative to avoid one of the most silent but potentially devastating consequences of COVID-19: the increase in the learning gap.

It is perhaps time to remember the famous quote by American philosopher Eric Hoffer: “in a time of drastic change, it is the learners who inherit the future.”

return to table of contents

Use of adaptive computer assisted remediation programs to prevent student dropout in the context of COVID-19 DIEGO ANGEL-URDINOLA | JUNE 17, 2020

Students at their computers in class

Joaquin Ponce is 20 years old and was born in Guayaquil, Ecuador. In October last year, Joaquin became the first member of his family to successfully enroll in a higher education institution, after being admitted to the Software Development program at the Technological College of Guayaquil. From a young age, Joaquin has shown a passion for computers. With the help of his parents and a part-time job in the construction sector, Joaquin was able to buy a personal computer at the age of 17. Since then, his dream is to become a software developer.

However, Joaquin's experience after entering higher education has not been easy. Once his classes began, Joaquin realized that he had significant cognitive gaps, especially in mathematics.

After his first month of classes, Joaquin began to lose motivation because he could not properly follow the contents of his classes. He could not do the projects demanded by his teachers and was simply not understanding or learning the contents taught in the classrooms. After 5 weeks of classes, Joaquin was seriously considering dropping out of college.

Many students enter college with significant cognitive gaps The underlying problem is that the quality of the secondary education received by Joaquin was not good enough to ensure that he had the cognitive skills necessary to assimilate universitylevel academic contents. Joaquin's case is not an atypical case in Latin America. Regional results

indicate that half of the students entering higher education do not continue their studies after completing their first year.

High dropout rates of first-year university students in Latin America are mostly explained by the fact that many, especially those from low- and middle-income households, are not ready to assimilate the curricular content taught in college. Moreover, leveling and remediation courses offered by universities in the region are scarce, expensive, and limited in scope.

Adaptive computer-assisted remedial programs: a potential solution An alternative to leveling out cognitive skills of first-year university students is to use information technology to personalize each student's skills development process. Adaptive Computer Assisted Remediation Programs (ACARPs) have the potential to improve higher education students' academic readiness at scale and in a cost-effective manner, by providing personalized remedial instruction and using easily accessible technologies. ACARPs are essentially specialized software for the development of cognitive skills, such as mathematical computing or reading comprehension. ACARPSs can improve learning outcomes because of their potential to "personalize" education by providing content that is tailored to the learning needs of students, what is commonly known as "teaching at the right level". In fact, one of the main promises of ACARPs is their adaptability since teachers and students can choose the menu of curricular competencies, they need to develop to be successful in higher education. ACARPs take advantage of emerging AI and machine learning techniques to model students' cognitive processes, deliver content accordingly, and ensure, through periodic assessments, that students master curricular content appropriately.

ACARPs can also provide students with different pedagogical strategies for learning methods and, in turn, provide immediate feedback to students and teachers with quick and regular data that can be used to monitor student learning. ACARPs also offer the opportunity to accurately monitor the actual time that students are exposed to the intervention. Many programs of this type can be accessed through PCs, tablets and telephones with Internet access, which makes them even more relevant in situations of restricted access to normal classes, such as the current coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

International evidence indicates that ACARPs are a promising approach to improve learning outcomes and decrease student dropout, especially among students with important curricular knowledge gaps. Several studies that assess the use of ACARPs for mathematics remediation show that college students exposed to them show significantly lower dropout, failure, and dropout rates in courses and majors that require a curricular mastery of mathematics. The available results also indicate that these interventions compare favorably (in terms of impact and cost-effectiveness) with interventions such as remedial classes, study groups, and in-person tutoring. The cost per student to access ACARPs can oscillate between 10 and 20 dollars per student per year, while the cost of tutoring and remedial classes can oscillate between 200 and 500 dollars per student per year.

ACARPs showed very promising results in a pilot conducted in Ecuador

As part of the activities of the World Bank supported Project "Reconversion of Technical and Technological Institutes in Ecuador” (PRETT for its initials in Spanish), the Secretariat of Higher Education, Science, and Technology (SENESCYT), implemented a ACARP pilot in 5 technical and technological institutes throughout the country, benefiting more than 800 first-year students enrolled in technical and technological institutes. The pilot was carried out between January and May 2020, by giving all 800 students access to licenses to use ACARPs. The first step to implement the pilot, done in close coordination with teachers and career directors, was to identify the math-related curricular areas that students should master in order to be successful in their freshman courses. After that, each student was evaluated using the platform in their domain of said curricular content. Based on this diagnosis, the platform generates a personalized learning plan for academic leveling and remediation. Students can access the platform from the institutes' laboratories, from their homes, using tablets or smartphones, or from any other place with internet access. One of the advantages of ACARPs is that its delivery does not require classroom attendance. This feature contributed to the success of the pilot even though technical institutes in Ecuador have been closed since mid-March due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Results in Figure 1 summarize the main results of the pilot. The blue bar shows the percentage of the curricular content mastered by the students in each technical and technological institute (TTI) when they made the initial knowledge evaluation, which ranged around 20%. After using the platform for 3 months (for 90 minutes a week on average), the knowledge of the students’ mathematical curricular skills reached 61.2% (orange bar), which represents an increase in the of curricular learning of between 8 and 10% per month. This constitutes a great achievement and represents approximately the “learning” equivalent that students would acquire after a full year of schooling.

Joaquin was one of the students who benefited from this pilot program. According to the results of the initial evaluation, Joaquin only mastered 10% of the curriculum content in mathematics required for his major. After using the platform for about 20 minutes per day for 3 months, he

was able to master almost half of the required curricular content, which allowed him to start participating more actively in the rest of his classes.

The results of the pilot show that, for students like Joaquin, ACARPs have the potential to improve the academic readiness of higher education students at scale and in a cost-effective manner. The SENESCYT, with funding from the PRETT, is planning to scale up the intervention in order to provide access to ACARPs for a period of 12 months to approximately 16,000 first-year students in 90 technical institutes nationwide, which will amount to an investment of approximately US$250,000. This intervention will be carefully evaluated with PRETT’s funding and with technical support from the World Bank. The results of this pilot seek to inform national and regional public policy, in order to find cost-effective policy options that support students in Latin America to be successful in their passage through higher education. return to table of contents

COVID-19 in East Asia: How the Region’s Higher Education Systems are Addressing the Crisis to Adapt to the Future NOAH YARROW | JUNE 23, 2020

Young man taking notes

With the current coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, many higher education institutions in most countries, including in East Asia, have transitioned to online learning. However it has been challenging for students without access to the internet, and these digital inequalities persist across all countries. Only Singapore, Brunei, and Malaysia have over 80 percent internet penetration. In Indonesia, Thailand, and Cambodia, less than 60 percent of the population has access to the internet, while only around 40 percent have access in Myanmar and Vietnam.

The digital divide is about more than internet access, however. It is also about the reliability, speed, and affordability of internet and data access, as well as having access to electronic devices conducive to learning. The most vulnerable often face more than one disadvantage, which magnifies the impact. Many institutions or governments have introduced a loan system to provide students in need with appropriate devices.

Another key issue is how prepared systems, students, and teachers are to adapt to online learning. Having infrastructure in place makes the transition to remote teaching and learning much easier. Some universities had an “online forward” approach to teaching and learning prior to the pandemic. For example, Taylor’s University in Malaysia states that each of its courses has its own virtual site, allowing online engagement for assessments, assignments, peer support, and communication with peers and lecturers.

Countries with significant internet infrastructure in place, such as the Republic of Korea, have important advantages when it comes to online education. However, even there, concerns have been raised whether students and teachers have adequate skills to engage successfully with software and learning technologies.

These concerns are magnified in countries with less infrastructure. In Indonesia, for example, students have given mixed reviews for the recent forced transition to online courses. Some of them find it difficult to stay focused, believe that online lectures are less effective, and struggle to interact online with lecturers and peers. This is not only because of internet access issues, but also because students (and staff) are not used to such environments or do not have the skills to make optimal use of such platforms. In a survey of 1,045 students conducted by the Indonesia University of Education, 48% of students appeared to need more time to get used to internetbased learning, despite the availability of teaching applications.

In the face of these challenges, countries using multiple avenues to ensure a continuation of learning; collaborations between institutions and between the private sector and institutions are expanding; and the initial uncertainty of international students seem to be moving towards a willingness to engage in different forms of international education. We are also seeing institutions getting their campuses and procedures ready for a “new normal� to welcome staff and students back.

Innovations and possibilities resulting from the pandemic might be overshadowed by the expected financial implications of COVID-19 that extend from immediate concerns about the welfare of students and staff to longer-term, sector-wide concerns about support for the recovery. Some institutions in Vietnam are providing scholarships to students whose families are most badly affected by the pandemic. In the Philippines, institutions are considering whether to refund student tuition fees, and in Thailand, 52 universities have pledged to reduce tuition fees to relieve pressure on students.

COVID-19 also poses a high risk for job losses and decreased tuition revenue, and there are likely to be long-term impacts from government budget constraints. International students not returning to their host institutions, or enrollment targets not being met because of administrative changes in school exit examinations, admission criteria, or travel and visa policies could have dire consequences, particularly where systems are already struggling or vulnerable.

These factors will determine whether institutions stay open and staff remain employed. Slow or even negative economic growth will also lower tax receipts available to finance government contributions to public universities, while sectors such as health are expected to consume higher-than-usual portions of government spending.

What can governments and institutions do to adapt? A new World Bank paper proposes options for higher education players and governments so that tertiary education systems can emerge stronger from this crisis.

For institutions: 1. Diversify funding. Work with private sector partners, foundations, multilaterals, and international organizations. Rethink online offerings to reach new domestic and international students, through virtual exchange alliances, virtual internships, shorter courses, micro-credentials, or digital certifications.

2. Develop and diversify infrastructure. Transform digital infrastructure toward a more agile and flexible system for digital pedagogy, investing in learning science, and training of faculty. Develop a basket of low-tech innovations to reach disadvantaged students with the same learning opportunities.

3. Increase collaboration. Invest in public-private partnerships to address challenges to accessing innovative technologies, infrastructure, and digital skills training. Many organizations, including the World Bank and UNESCO, have also shared a range of resources for countries to use. Building collaborative relationships with open universities could also guide policy and practice to ensure quality.

4. Position universities as critical contributors to building national resilience. Beyond the need for specialist research, resources, and knowledge to combat COVID-19, the East Asia region is plagued by environmental challenges. Universities could be critical partners in tackling challenges affecting all sectors of society.

5. Provide flexible learning pathways. Introduce more aspects of flexible learning into regular face-to-face courses. In addition, introduce a variety of courses to complement national skills needs.

For governments: 1. Develop and implement quality assurance regulations for flexible learning, with focus on accountability and transparency.

2. Draft and implement policies on the ethics and security of technology. Policies on the use of data, the extent of privacy, and the rights of citizens need to guide the ethical use of technologies, even during a crisis.

3. Implement data management and quality measures. More data require better ways of managing data, and the current jump in online learning offers lessons and opportunities to make improvements going forward.

4. Tackle the digital divide. Students from poorer families, living in rural areas, or who are marginalized in other ways, are often excluded from innovations. return to table of contents

The Big Bad Wolf moves south: How COVID-19 affects higher education financing in developing countries JAMIL SALMI | NINA ARNHOLD | ROBERTA MALEE BASSETT | JUNE 24, 2020

The Big Bad Wolf

In a recent blog, we retold the tale of the three little pigs as the story of tertiary education financing in Western Europe, with COVID-19 as the big bad wolf shaking the foundations of various funding models. We observed how privately and publicly funded systems, especially those that rely heavily on fees from international students, have come under pressure due to the coronavirus. Is the crisis playing out in a similar way in developing countries? What are the risks for tertiary education funding in low- and middle-income countries?

Many countries where the World Bank works share several features: (i) insufficient public funding for tertiary education (between 0.3 and 0.8% of GDP), (ii) rigid allocation mechanisms that provide no incentives for performance, (iii) uneven development and quality of private provision, and (iv) limited financial aid to compensate for the acute social disparities in access and success that continue in spite of rapid enrollment growth.

Short-term effects As country after country imposed partial or total lockdowns, the number of universities and colleges closing their campus and switching to e-learning soared. However, few institutions were well prepared for this sudden, disruptive move. Scrambling and improvisation has occurred as administrators, instructors, and students struggled to implement broad-based online learning.

In developing countries, students from disadvantaged groups are facing tremendous difficulties.

Limited internet access and low broadband capacity have severely constrained opportunities for online learning, especially in rural areas. Many students from low-income households – sometimes even faculty members – don’t own a laptop or a tablet. In addition to these digitaldivide challenges, colleges and universities in poor nations have struggled to rapidly launch quality distance learning programs. Many lack experienced instructional designers, sufficient educational resources, an adequate grasp of the specifics and nuances of online education, and strong institutional capacity to deliver it.

The African University Association has already signaled that, among the 700 universities operating in Sub-Saharan Africa, very few are well prepared and sufficiently equipped to deliver their programs online. Connectivity remains an issue, and in some countries of the region governments have difficulties guaranteeing continuity in power supply.

Unlike in high-income countries, many governments of developing nations have not been able to provide stimulus packages to support the tertiary education sector during the pandemic .

Instead, their financial responses have tended to reallocate resources away from the education budget to help meet the soaring expenses of the health emergency. In Kenya, for example, the Commission on University Education reallocated the equivalent of US$2.5 million of its development fund to the COVID-19 emergency fund. In Nigeria, the federal government intends to cut about US$130 million from the education sector to support its pandemic response initiatives. And even within education, there may be an inclination to move funds away from the tertiary sector to lower levels whose needs are considered more pressing.

Changing landscape for the longer term While there are many uncertainties about the prospects for universities reopening in the next academic year, the medium-term outlook is grim in developing countries. For most higher education institutions, especially private ones that are fully dependent on tuition fees, financial survival will be seriously tested during the deep recession that many economists predict.

Millions of students with limited resources could drop out of higher education altogether or shift to more affordable public institutions. It’s not unrealistic to expect many private colleges and universities to close their doors permanently. Students graduating this year are also likely to face huge employment challenges. Similarly, working students who lose their jobs may not be able to continue studying.

In the recovery phase, rather than being in a better position to rescue the tertiary sector, there are indications that governments in developing countries will face competing priorities. Many could be tempted or forced to further slash their higher education budget. Kenya has already announced a US$460 million cut for next year. In Pakistan, the governing body of the Higher Education Commission (HEC) recently warned that the sudden cut in the tertiary education budget by another US$36 million could result in “dismantling the country’s higher education system by forcing the shutdown of universities.”

Financial sustainability to ensure resilience This is not the first time that developing countries have faced a major crisis. But the strength of universities in low- and middle-income countries may never have been tested so severely. Over the past three months, we have come to realize that the crisis will not be just a short break from academic routine, with things getting back to normal in the new academic year. It’s not just a matter of coping with short-term effects of the pandemic: this unprecedented crisis portends drastic changes in the landscape for tertiary education.

Hopefully, this crisis will be a wake-up call to reassess the vulnerabilities of the tertiary sector and the challenges of living in a global and interdependent world. The emergency support must now shift to a more systematic approach, both to the organization of higher education in the medium term (academic year 2020/21) and to longer-term sources of funding. Now more than ever, low- and middle-income countries need to design sustainable financing strategies that can protect the progress of the past decade and that align with their ambitions for higher education to make a strong contribution to the national development agenda and achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.

In a recent letter to the African ministers of higher education, the general secretary of the Association of African Universities urged them “to use this as an opportunity to strengthen our educational institutions by making them much more resilient to unforeseen crises. This is a great opportunity to communicate clear messages to our African governments on the urgent need to strengthen our educational institutions and systems by making them future-ready and able to survive and thrive in a world of uncertainty.”

A sustainable financing strategy would involve mobilizing adequate levels of public and private resources in a balanced way. It would also require transparent and objective approaches for allocating public resources to reflect each institution’s performance on access and equity, quality and relevance, and, in the case of research-intensive universities, research and knowledge transfer. The distribution of public resources should reflect the principle of equal opportunities for all, including low-income students, women, minorities, and youths with special needs. Finally, guaranteeing multi-year funding would enable higher education institutions to develop and improve over the medium to longer term in accordance with their strategic plan. return to table of contents

What will automation do to the labor market if education quality doesn’t improve? COVID-19 offers a preview KEVIN MACDONALD | HARRY A. PATRINOS | JUNE 26, 2020

Sewing machines in a garment factory, Accra, Ghana

The effects of coronavirus (COVID-19) on the labor market have been devastating. There have been substantial job losses, and initial labor force surveys find these to be especially high for less educated workers. In developing countries, lockdowns have caused migrations, sometimes significant, from cities back to home provinces and villages where family members are employed in agriculture. Governments have instituted massive wage subsidy programs and income support to mitigate the loss in employment.

Job loss among less educated workers, out-migration of low-skilled urban workers back to the informal agricultural sector, and large government subsidy programs were all outcomes predicted by our research under a worst-case scenario. But our topic wasn’t the labor market effects of a pandemic—it was the effects of automation.

COVID-19 is forcing us to rethink the workplace and global supply chains. Automation constitutes a large part of this thinking. It has emerged as a solution to everything from treating patients to protecting health care workers, and from re-shoring of production to strengthen domestic supply chains (rightly or wrongly) to enabling social distancing and remote work. But the pandemic is also providing a glimpse of how automation will affect the labor market unless individuals are able to attain the skills to engage with technology.

A skill-biased pandemic

For those with lower levels of education, COVID-19’s effect on employment has been much more severe than for those with higher levels of education. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ April Employment Situation reported not only a historic surge in unemployment, but also a substantial difference in effect between low and higher educated workers. Comparing the unemployment rates between April 2019 and April 2020, the unemployment rate for those with a bachelor’s degree or higher increased from 2.1 to 8.4 percent, while for those with only a high school education it increased from 3.4 to 17.3 percent. In Europe, a recent study estimated that 30 percent of jobs were non-essential but could not be done from home—and that these jobs were held disproportionately by poorly educated workers. Those with less education also tended to fare worse in previous economic crises.

COVID-19: Automation in fast-forward Under a worst-case scenario, those with automation-substituting skills (i.e., skills that machines can replace) will see their productivity drop as they are replaced by technology. Meanwhile, this substitution effectively increases the productivity of those with automation-complementing skills (the skills that automation relies on). This shift will increase wage inequality and, for developing countries with weak safety nets, lead to an outflow of low-skilled workers back to the agricultural sector. The policy response will need to include massive re-skilling of workers and wealth transfers.

However, our research suggests that these outcomes can be mitigated based on the quality of education available. If education systems are strong enough, they can respond to the demand for workers to acquire automation-complementing skills. If they aren’t strong enough, and the supply of these skills is constrained or less elastic, more wage inequality will result. In turn, more costly social programs will be needed to offset this inequality, and countries will not be able to take full advantage of the productivity benefits that automation offers.

Which skills are “automation-complementing”? Artificial intelligence experts argue that creativity and social intelligence are areas where humans retain a comparative advantage over machines.

Several empirical studies, including our own, have found that school attainment and cognitive skills are important predictors of whether individuals can be employed in occupations that are of lower risk of automation. In other words, the jobs of poorly educated workers are more at risk due to automation just as their employment is now at risk during COVID-19.

This is how the effects of COVID-19 mimic the effects of automation: by creating inequality in the productivity that largely reflect workers’ education level. Of course, the pandemic differs from long-term automation trends in obvious ways. It is (hopefully) short-term, so that re-skilling of the workforce is not an immediate policy consideration; the pandemic is also not increasing the productivity of high-skilled workers in the way that automation would. But COVID-19 may result in a permanent increase in the uptake of automation, as has happened in previous crises; some job losses may be permanent.

A stark warning for education systems The problem in many countries is that education systems appear unable to provide even basic levels of learning proficiency, let alone the higher order cognitive and complex soft skills needed

for workers to complement automation technology. This is especially the case for children and youth from poorer families or households with lower socioeconomic status, from disempowered ethnic minorities or indigenous peoples, and for those streamed at a young age into terminal vocational schooling programs. Adult retraining programs are often at the forefront of discussion about policy responses to automation. But given that many education systems are unable to provide basic skills, retraining adults may not give them the skills needed to complement automation in the long run.

COVID-19, however, has demonstrated that many low- and middle-income countries are willing and able to reform their education systems rapidly in response to a crisis. Many are enacting reforms very quickly to adapt to school closures and social distancing, with a focus on education quality and equity. But COVID is also offering a preview of what automation can do to the labor market unless learning outcomes improve drastically in many countries.

The momentum for rapid reform should continue when the crisis abates; learning outcomes must improve for countries to avoid a future where automation creates a labor market similar to what we’re seeing during the pandemic. return to table of contents

A lesson on the pandemic – the lesson we didn’t learn about inequality JAIME SAAVEDRA | JULY 02, 2020

Young girl walks to school

School after this pandemic will be different. To a large extent this is due to many actors – parents, teachers, mass media, the government, and others – who will have changed their views and perceptions about their role in the education process. This shift of mindsets will be critical for the future of the education system.

Parents now have a better understanding of the need to work jointly with schools to foster the education of their children. They now know that they can be, and actually are, a major figure in the education process of their children. And many parents who are now struggling with supporting they children to maintain some of their learning process at home will have a better understanding of just how demanding and challenging the teacher’s job is. Parents have a much greater appreciation for teachers and what they do. And parents now clearly recognize that education is a social experience – a lot of the magic of learning, of the development of ideas and creativity, come from the social interaction with teachers and peers. If someone ever thought that teachers could be replaced by artificial intelligence, it is now clear that is not the case.

Teachers now have a better understanding of the importance of digital technologies, and that digital skills are an essential element of their toolkit. Without these skills and tools, providing remedial education, to teach each student at the level they need, and to address the diffident needs of different students will be very difficult. And education ministries now realize that without technology it will be very difficult to provide all teachers, at scale, the professional development opportunities they urgently need.

Mass media now has a better understanding of the critical role that TV and radio still play in the lives of people and in the education process. They have a huge responsibility in the formation of character, in providing socioemotional skills, in providing knowledge, and, therefore, have a disproportionately critical role in the education process of children and youth in a country.

But a fundamental lesson of this pandemic for government and societies is that we have an even better understanding of the immense equity gaps. They have been made more evident, and the urgent need to act on them is even clearer.

There are several fronts on which societies need to urgently act to rectify these gaps.

One aspect of the equity gap was already evident in the policy discussions. Before the pandemic, school was not yet the equalizing factor that allows everyone to have a chance in life. Across and within countries, the quality of learning was highly dependent on socio-economic background. There has been some progress, but far from enough. Successful countries were those that, while ensuring quality, were also ensuring that there is no – or little – sorting or segregation of students. In those countries, the quality of the education you receive at school is independent of family income or wealth, race, gender, or where you were born.

However, it became clear with the pandemic that in many low- and middle-income countries (and even several high-income countries), differences in school quality were huge, and were highly correlated to wealth income and other variables, leaving schools in poorer areas, in particular, grossly underprepared to adapt themselves to the new situation. Some (few) schools were able to provide classes online, their teachers were able – usually with a lot of effort – to switch to online, provide material to be used at home, and continue interacting with students, monitoring progress, and providing feedback. But many didn’t. 30 countries have implemented multiplatform remote learning strategies, using online, TV, radio, social networks to try to reach as many children as possible, but effectiveness of these mitigation strategies are extremely varied.

A second aspect of the equity gap is that there is a huge digital divide: both the differences in access to hardware, connectivity, and the right software, but also the huge shortfall of teachers with the digital skills. We knew there was a digital divide… now this was a slap in the face – not having acted on this divide is precluding technology from being the great equalizer that it potentially can be.

The digital divide has several aspects. One is that access to internet at home or at school is still very limited. Much more limited than what we think. In low-income countries, only 10% of children have internet at home, and only 20% of schools are connected. And in many cases, that connectivity is poor quality and is expensive. In Latin America, only 50% of students have a device at home. Even in high-income countries, many kids do not have access to a device, or it has to be shared among several family members. But the divide does not stop on connectivity or hardware. Unfortunately, sometimes investments in hardware, that even if useful, have no impact, if there is no system capacity to seamlessly integrate digital tools with curriculum.

The digital divide is also evident in the lack of skills of many teachers. Now people will go digital much more than before, some schools or some systems will have been suddenly exposed to

technology, some successfully, other less so. Google Classroom, Zoom, or Teams are there for many more schools than before. More teachers and students will be aware of their potential, and shifts might be permanent. But many teachers were not or are not prepared, so the efforts needed to bring all teachers up to speed, across all countries are gigantic and urgent.

Closing the digital divide requires an integral change. It is not about hardware and software.

Technology will never replace the teacher, but it can augment the effectiveness of the teacher.

And there are things that technology cannot do. One child has a short attention span, another requires motivation, etc. – the need to invest in teachers’ digital skills entails finding the right balance between technology and the human factor.

There is a third source of inequity that this pandemic has made evident – it is that education does not happen only at school, but at home. This is suddenly obvious during this pandemic. Not all children will have a stable home, with educated or, more important, motivated parents. Not all children have connectivity or a computer, or a device for their own use at home. Not all children have books at home or a space to work. This is another area where opportunities need to be equalized.

A few months ago, we were already discussing about how the world is living a learning crisis. The baseline is now much more challenging, and inequities have expanded dramatically. Learning strategies in the coming months, with education systems moving towards a new normal, should now give children not only a more equitable schooling experience, but a more holistic and resilient education opportunity. At school, a blend of inperson and remote learning will be a new fact of life. As the educational process continues at home, an effort is needed to provide internet and devices to poor children. Children should have books and reading material at home. And parents should be actively supported to be major figures in their children’s education.

Education is about technology enhancing the role of the teacher; education is about collaboration between teachers, parents, and the community; and education is about making sure that each child gets the support that they need. This will not be easy, it and requires huge adaptation on the part of all players. But good things are never easy to come by. return to table of contents

@WBG_EDUCATION WORLDBANK.ORG/EDUCATION