African Pilot magazine - August 2018 edition by African Pilot Magazine

August 2018

African Pilot

Contents Airline Pilot

Sport Pilot

25 Years of the regional jet

Brakpan Cessna fly-in

Airline industry on the cusp

Race for Rhinos Botswana

Boeing 747 and Airbus A380

Sonaca 200

Narrow body airliners

Regulars

Commercial Pilot

Competitions

Comet Aerox

Letters

Pilatus PC-24

Events Calendar

First New Garmin G600 TXI

Picture of the Month

Fact File

Drone Pilot 24

Names to Remember

Drone Conference 2018

Accident Report

Boeing HorizonX

Medical

First commercial drone flight

The Best of the Best

KOTUG chooses Delft Dynamics

Flight of MALE RPA

Flying High

Subscription Form

Shop Window

Helicopter Pilot 42

Hong Kong H175s

Hungary orders 20 H145m

Special Features

Military Pilot

Nelspruit Airfields

LSA Survey

Airbus Heron TP Drones

F35 300th delivery

Other

AERO Vodochody L-39 NG

Bombers

and L-159

Buhala Lodge

Pentagon considers prop warplanes

Legally grey

Horse Power

60 84

distributed by

Contributors Edgaras Feiginas Divan Muller Johan Botes

Charlie Hugo Aidan Owen Christine Brits

Fiona Hugo Charlie Marais

Athol Franz Honiball Aviation Auditing

copyright The views expressed in African Pilot are not necessary those of the editor, publisher, or staff writers. The editors and publishers cannot be held responsible for differences of opinion or statements published in good faith. No part of this magazine may be reproduced including advertisements produced by Wavelengths 10 (Pty) Ltd in any form without permission from the publisher. â&#x20AC;&#x201C; South African copyright laws apply. distribution African Pilot is distributed by On the Dot throughout southern African countries to approximately 1 000 retail stores:CNA, Exclusive Books, Pick â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n Pay, PNA, selected Spar stores, garage convenience shops, Checkers Hypermarkets, 7/11 stores, selected bookshops, Fascination and Incredible Books as well as to neighbourhood convenience shops. Own distribution to specialist pilot shops at airports as well as to key decision makers within the aviation industry. Back editions are distributed free of charge to African countries, airport lounges, charter companies, the South African Air Force and selected flight schools. Altogether 5 500 copies of African Pilot are printed each month. The magazine also has online readers from all over the world. The first ten pages of African Pilot may be downloaded free of charge by visiting www.africanpilot.co.za

African Pilot

August 2018

African Pilot

Editorial So to where does time fly when one is having such fun in aviation? This past month has been like a whirlwind of aviation activity with so many excellent events to record, the finest being the Race for Rhinos staged in neighbouring Botswana, which was covered by long-time correspondents Charlie and Fiona Hugo starting on page 52 of this edition. There is no doubt that southern African aviation has set some exceptional world records and this air race was yet another world record for the number of participants from all over the globe. Of course, an event of this magnitude cannot happen without the financial assistance of many generous sponsors, so on behalf of African Pilot may I thank all the companies that made this spectacular event happen. Charlie Hugo has mentioned them all in his excellent report. Instead of travelling to Botswana to cover the Race for Rhinos, I covered the two-day Drones’ Conference held at Emperors Palace over the same time period. Once again, the theme that came through this - the second drones’ conference of 2018 - was the very real problems that have been created by the South African Civil Aviation Authority (SACAA) not improving its Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS) licensing service so that more people can start using this disruptive technology within their work environment. The fact that South Africa is still the only country in the world that requires a Remote Operating Certificate (ROC) to operate once licensed and that this process takes upwards of 18 months and costs in excess of R100K is shameful. At the same time there has not been any real attention paid by the regulator to educate the general public of South Africa about the dangers of drones when they are flown in contravention of the safety of manned aviation. African Pilot has offered the SACAA the opportunity to provide FREE publicity to

assist with this cause and also to assist with the development of a safety culture, but this gesture appears to have fallen on deaf ears. Because I don’t ever wish to become an armchair critic of the regulator, my offer to be part of any forum that is established in the area of drone regulations still holds. The other issue is the problem of powerful lasers being pointed at pilots either on take-off or landing, where I have offered to assist with a media campaign to bring this scourge to the attention of ALL South Africans. Once again it appears that any offer to assist the regulator in safety matters is not always taken seriously. Within this edition we are again presenting African Pilot’s annual Light Sport Aircraft (LSA) feature starting on page 97. It is exciting to know that several South African LSA designs have made significant inroads into the world Light Sport Aircraft market. In addition, once again we have taken a look at the two Nelspruit airports in Mpumalanga starting on page 84. This year will be the 18th year in succession that I have travelled to the ‘greatest aviation show on earth’ EAA AirVenture Oshkosh and this time Neil Bowden has booked 215 people to camp in ‘Camp Plakkerfontein.’ This is an all-time record and African Pilot was the only aviation print magazine that promoted Neil’s Air Adventure Tours. That certainly, says something about great publicity and quality advertising. Until next month please keep warm and fly safely Athol Franz Editor

Editor Athol Franz 082 552 2940 editor@africanpilot.co.za

Publisher / Production Wavelengths 10 (Pty) Ltd

Marketing Lara Bayliss 079 880 4359 marketing@africanpilot.co.za

Durban correspondent Pete van der Spek

Copy reader Gordon Dyne

gdyne@global.co.za

Designers Maria Leader maria@africanpilot.co.za Creshenda Maraba-Haffejee creshenda@africanpilot.co.za Website and digital Johan Botes

johan@africanpilot.co.za

Accounts Manager Helena Kurland

admin@africanpilot.co.za

Admin / Subscriptions Paulinah Motlhabi

subscribe@africanpilot.co.za

Transport Ephraim Ndlovu

Cape Town correspondent Irene McCullagh Printing Business Print

012 843 7600 / 0861 42 42 59

Distribution On the Dot

011 401 5938

African Pilot Local International Fax

0861 00 11 30 +27 11 466 8524 / 6 086 767 4333

P.O. Box 30620, Kyalami, 1684, South Africa

African Pilot House No. 6 Barbeque Heights, Dytchley Road, Barbeque Downs, Kyalami, South Africa 4

African Pilot

August 2018

website: www.africanpilot.co.za

Competitions Total value of the competition in this edition is R1 500

Cover The Puma Energy Flying Lions

August Cover Competition Total value R1 500 The Airplane Factory has generously sponsored a demonstration flight from Tedderfield Air Part over Soccer City in Johannesburg valued at R1500. Questions 1) What is the name of the new model Sling that will be introduced at Oshkosh this year? 2) What type of engine does the new model Sling have installed? 3) How many Light Sport Aircraft are featured within the LSA survey in this edition? June Cover Competition Winners Congratulations to the following winners, who won annual electronic magazine subscription: Chad Davis, Mary-Jane Davis, Sue Haupt and Emelia Walis This Monthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Cover Competition Entries to be submitted to the following e-mail only: info@africanpilot.co.za One entry per person please. Entries sent to other African Pilot e-mails will automatically be disqualified.

Charlie took this amazing picture of the Puma Energy Flying Lions from the rear seat of the fourth Harvard flown by Ellis Levin at the recent Race for Rhinos in Botswana as they were preparing for their signature water skiing display on the edge of Sua Pan. Charlie used his Canon 1DX with 24-105 IS L (Mk1 lens) ISO 800 shutter priority 1/400 sec.

August 2018

African Pilot

August 2018

Lanseria Airport main runway approaching from 07 side

Dear Athol, I was intrigued by your article on the Katangese Air Force for various reasons, not least the mention of Jan Zumbach in the article. Jan Zumbach was a friend of my step-grandfather Jan Falkowski who was also a pilot in the RAF’s 303 Polish Squadron and at a time commanded it. Interestingly one of his regular mounts ended up in the SAAF after the war. I have tried through various people to track it down, but to no avail.

Good Day Athol, I noticed in your article on Lanseria Airport, which was in the June edition of African Pilot, that the runway headings are now 07/25. Many years ago when I flew from Lanseria, in the days when you could park your aircraft at the café entrance, the runway headings were 06/24 and also if I remember correctly 17/35. Were the runways changed when the runway was revamped a few years ago or is there some other reason they changed? Kind Regards Clive Godfrey Dear Clive, Many thanks for your mail. You are most observant! Yes, I also remember those days of Lanseria’s ‘old terminal building’ where one could park a General Aviation plane next to the terminal and have a meal on the terrace. However, as with many other situations in aviation, Lanseria ‘grew up’ and is now one of the few independent international airports in South Africa. When ExecuJet built its magnificent ‘new’ buildings the old cross runway 17/35 was abandoned. Of course, part of the runway is still visible, but it is now mostly used as a ‘dump’ for some of the older abandoned aircraft that continue to ‘litter’ Lanseria, a firefighting practice aircraft and an area where Aircraft Maintenance Organisations (AMOs) can perform engine run-ups.

Also, I had a teacher at high school, a Mike Bissell who was a mercenary Harvard pilot for the Katangese and I was a friend of a girl whose father was a missionary in Katanga. We were living in Mufulira, Northern Rhodesia at the time of that conflict and several of my father’s friends went and fought as mercenaries to earn a quick ‘buck.’ I remember the DC6 of Dag Hammarskjold the UN Secretary General crashing at Ndola. I went past the accident scene which was heavily cordoned off. Best regards, Mike Tanski Dear Mike, Many thanks for your very interesting mail. This was a tremendous article that Divan Muller researched and wrote on the Katangese Air Force for African Pilot and I learned a great deal from it. Perhaps someone somewhere will read the article and your mail and have some information on your step-grandfather’s missing mount. I sure hope so. Kind regards, Athol United Nations peacekeeping air forces in Congo January 1963

Some years ago, when the new runway was commissioned, the headings were re-aligned to their true magnetic headings and therefore the new headings of 07/25. The long-term plan is for Lanseria to build a second major runway parallel to the existing runway, but I expect this will take many years before work begins. Regards, Athol August 2018

African Pilot

August 2018

25 Years of the regional jet: why the future is small and it’s huge The Bombardier CRJ series family CRJ Series jets are synonymous with growth. They rose to popularity because of distinct operational advantages: optimised seating capacity, cost and fuel-efficiency, operating range, and flexibility of route development. These aircraft helped airlines expand profitably, offering critical and convenient air service to smaller communities. In Germany, where the CRJ100 was first launched, the aircraft helped Lufthansa reliably and cost-effectively add services to Western and Eastern European cities from its hubs in Frankfurt, Munich, Dusseldorf and Hamburg. Air Canada put CRJ aircraft to work on new trans-border routes to city pairs in the US after the signing of the Open Skies agreement between the two countries in 1995. In the US, they helped airlines expand to underserved airports in smaller communities without violating existing ‘scope clause’ agreements with mainline fleet pilots and brought additional traffic to the mainline hubs.

Right-sizing scope and capacity Whilst some banked on the scope clauses in the US to ultimately disappear, industry consolidation actually led to their re-enforcement. As Courtney Miller, Director, Lessor Sales at Bombardier Aerospace explains: “With the Continental-United merger, the newly merged pilot group adopted the Delta scope clause, almost to the letter. American also merged with US Airways, putting an end to both the US Airways East and US Airways West clauses and aligning with Delta and United at 76 seats. Just as importantly, maximum take-off weight limitations were aligned at 86,000 pounds, which has created problems for new generations of heavier Mitsubishi and Embraer regional jets. Even Alaska Airlines, without a definitive scope clause, voluntarily matched the seat count and maximum take-off weight limitations of the three legacy airlines.” The ‘scope clause’ driving growth of regional aircraft in the US continues and is projected to intensify in the decades ahead. In its 2017-2037 Aerospace Forecast, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) predicts that the regional fleet will grow in favour of 70-90 seat planes by 2023, serving routes where 50 seat aircraft may be prominent today. The FAA writes: “By 2025 only a handful of 50 seat regional jets will remain in the fleet. By 2037, the number of jets in the regional carrier fleet totals 1,828, up from 1,637 in 2016.” This will be consistent with the US mainline and regional airlines’ move towards improved capacity management. There are material gains for airlines and passengers alike from including right-sized aircraft in the fleet mix, not least of which

CRJ 1000 Next Gen

are cost-efficiency and greater access to air service. The labour costs to operate CRJ aircraft, for instance, can be as much as 70% lower than costs to operate larger aircraft. CRJ aircraft are also more fuel efficient, with continuous design improvements reducing fuel burn and support more disciplined capacity management. “Airlines used to look at some metrics like cost per seat which I think is becoming obsolete. The reason is the importance of making profit. The cost per seat put those airlines in a direction of up-gauging, needing to fill those planes, bigger and bigger at the expense of yield. What we have seen over the past ten years is a drop-in yield of 25% worldwide, which at the end of the day led to a lot of airlines being in the red,” Patrick Baudis, Vice President & Head of Marketing at Bombardier states. “To fill the plane at all expense and not look at the traffic aspect has been detrimental for many markets. We are in a situation where airlines are moving back from that and looking at revenue and profit. Yes, the cost is important, but the revenue and right sizing are important too. Instead of operating an empty plane, airlines now look at operating the right sized plane. That is, a plane that doesn’t bring too much risk, that is easy to fill; without having to drop yields to reach the 80-85% load factor that airlines want. This is a trend that we see in airlines and one that we expect to see for a long time.” The FAA highlights the effectiveness of this more effective capacity management as a profit booster in its Aerospace Forecast, stating:

“

The shift in focus from market share to boosting returns on invested capital has resulted in something the industry has rarely seen sustained profitability. The US airline industry has become nimbler in adjusting capacity to seize opportunities or minimise losses.

” August 2018

African Pilot

Big business in small markets The greater cost efficiencies of regional aircraft operations also allow airlines to add direct services to smaller markets, feeding hub connections and creating convenient point-to-point services between spoke cities. To boost competitiveness against Low-Cost Carriers in their markets, airlines are breaking away from strict hub-andspoke service models. This has the carry-on effect of creating new opportunities for regional feeder routes. As industry analyst Addison Schonland of AirInsight explains, “What many airlines are doing is to ‘hub bust’ by serving direct flights between secondary cities. The 787 is a typical hub buster. However, as these hub-busting flights gain momentum, these secondary cities become ‘hublets’ of their own, requiring feed and distribution. So, the need for regional service remains even as it changes and evolves.” Patrick Baudis at Bombardier also believes service to secondary markets will become increasingly important to meet growing demand in the coming decades. “The next growth opportunity we see is the secondary markets,” he says. “For example, take the Midwest in the US, which has been deserted by a lot of airlines because they could not find the right equipment with the right economics to serve these markets. Now, with a new generation of planes, there is a desire to get back to those markets. With right-sized equipment, there is a tremendous growth coming from those markets.”

Starting up in China The Chinese air travel market is projected to grow dramatically in the coming decades, both internationally and domestically. Speaking at an airline roundtable in Beijing in February 2017, IATA Director General and CEO, Alexandre de Juniac highlighted the progress and promise of this market. “Chinese airlines and airports rank amongst the top 10 by passenger numbers. Investment in infrastructure, including the second airport in Beijing, will ensure that airport capacity is available to meet the expected traffic growth. IATA’s forecast is that by 2024, China will overtake the US as the world’s largest passenger market and in 2035, China will be a market of 1.3 billion passengers,” he said. However, that rapid growth creates new challenges for the country, demanding the rapid development of infrastructure and consistency of service beyond the large hubs. As Colin Bole, Senior Vice President, Commercial at Bombardier explains: “The Chinese regional market is underdeveloped compared with the US and Europe. China is building 74 airports over the next five years and they are implementing policies to encourage regional aviation using smaller more efficient aircraft, versus the trunk line growth that has dominated the Chinese market for the past 20 years. We believe the newer models of the regional jets (CRJ700/CRJ900) are the most attractive for Chinese airline startups.”

AirInsight concludes in its analysis of this market. “If China sees a strong demand for regional jets, Bombardier and Embraer are bound to win new orders. If this assumption is accurate, this would be a further boost to demand for new regional jets.”

Bombardier expects significant growth of CRJ Series aircraft in this market “Bombardier’s Bole says; “There are about 200 regional jets in China, so it is a very small percentage of the Chinese fleet. We forecast that percentage should grow. We don’t know what the final figure might be, but compared with the US and Europe, it is 20-25%. The smaller jets are more efficient in smaller cities where you have thinner routes 80-90-100 passengers, instead of the 200 or so on larger routes.”

Shuttle service As passenger numbers grow around the world, passenger satisfaction will become more critical to protect airline brands. Whilst surveys show that passengers are, on the whole, more satisfied with air travel today, you might not know it from following social media commentary. The democratisation of flight, paired with the rapidfire sharing of our always-on lifestyle, means that even the slightest complaint can go viral. As a result, airlines have to be more mindful of maintaining a quality standard of service without burning through that profitability they have carefully developed. Right-sizing and service re-structuring by using regional aircraft also helps with this. Some airlines have found that establishing convenient shuttle services targeted at frequent business travellers on common business routes, with special menus, cabin comforts and VIP treatment, have proved successful and profitable. There is an opportunity to do so by operating modern regional aircraft, with enhanced passenger experience features and more frequent schedules. Delta has had great success with its shuttle service model attracting high-yield passengers. Originally launched to serve key business destinations on the East Coast of the US, Delta has expanded Shuttle service to the West coast.

Small is getting bigger every day The market dynamics in the regions that fostered the success of the first 25 years of Bombardier’s CRJ Series aircraft continue to grow at a fast pace with new larger aircraft featuring enhanced passenger experience, replacing the original 50-seat models. Whilst CRJ aircraft have become synonymous with access to smaller communities in North America and Europe, there remain huge growth opportunities in emerging markets from second and third tier cities. We see the rise of the regional market expanding fast in many markets such as Latin America, Africa, India, Middle East and China. As they advance to 50 years in service and beyond, these big ‘little planes’ still have a long way to grow.

Airline industry on the cusp of major investment wave

he commercial aviation industry is at the beginning of a technology investment wave fuelled by advancements in high-speed, in-flight Wi-Fi connectivity. In the new Honeywell Connected Aircraft Report, aviation professionals around the globe in the commercial aircraft sector reveal that spending on connected technologies will increase dramatically in the coming years, driven by a rapidly growing demand for solutions that enhance the passenger experience, save airlines money and improve operational efficiency.

African Pilot

August 2018

Airliners waiting for take-off

Connected technologies are defined as those that make use of data sent to and from the aircraft to benefit passengers, pilots and operators. Some examples include applications that track fleet fuel usage; give pilots landing and navigation aids; crowd-sourced weather information accessed via mobile devices and analytics solutions that use data from ‘smart’ sensors, sending it to maintenance personnel or aircraft operators during flight. The report finds that spending will be largely focused beyond the cabin, with maintenance ranking highest among the pain points that airline decision makers want to tackle. Investment in connected technologies is expected to rise significantly during the next 12 months and to increase even more rapidly over the next five years. Honeywell offers more than 100 Connected Aircraft products and services, including network connections and hardware and software packages, to enable a high-speed, global Wi-Fi solution for nearly all aircraft platforms. “The airline industry is beginning to seriously invest in Connected Aircraft technology to proactively improve daily operations. The result is airline employees performing their daily roles more effectively, whilst also delivering the kind of service that passengers expect, including increased safety and on-time arrivals,” said Kristin Slyker, vice president, Connected Aircraft, Honeywell Aerospace. “With the massive potential for cost savings and improved operations, predictive maintenance is the No. 1 area in which airlines are looking to invest. Our research revealed nearly 60 percent of airlines are looking to purchase predictive maintenance technologies over the next year and even more are expected to invest down the road.”

73 percent of survey respondents listed fuel efficiency as ‘extremely Important’ or ‘very important’ to an airline’s investment plan. “We are one of the biggest domestic operators with comparatively lower turnaround time, therefore fuel use data is a big concern for us. We are operating in a very busy environment; if a single flight is disrupted, it becomes a great concern to manage the schedule,” said a fleet management employee at a passenger airline. “Saving fuel, shortening or eliminating delays and having better real-time information will result in lower operational costs. On the customer side, we want to be the brand of choice. The new generation of business travellers (our most lucrative customer) wants to be connected at all times and have information readily available. The airline that can provide this will have a competitive advantage,” said a ground operations employee at a passenger airline.

Challenge No. 3: aircraft turnaround time To keep passengers happy and costs on track, pushing back from the gate in a timely manner for on-time arrivals is important. Passenger experience was one of the top reasons for airlines to invest in the Connected Aircraft, with 76 percent of respondents listing it as ‘extremely important’ or ‘very important.’ “Connected related purchases will increase operational efficiency, improve fleet management, provide energy efficiency, ensure flight safety, give customers delight, reduce aircraft turnaround time and costs,” said an aircraft research and development expert at an aircraft OEM.

Big investment now, bigger investment later

The Honeywell Connected Aircraft Report features survey responses from maintenance personnel, flight and ground crew, fleet management personnel and other key stakeholders in the commercial airline sector on near- and long-term technology purchase plans. Connected Aircraft technologies are seen as one of the most important long-term investments to improve all-around operations and competitive standing within the industry. The benefits of these technologies also go well beyond passenger entertainment in the cabin. The next wave of investment in connectivity is to address three main challenges: maintenance effectiveness, fuel consumption and aircraft turnaround time.

Investing in the Connected Aircraft is important for airlines around the globe. In fact, 81 percent of respondents cited connected technologies as a high or very high priority for their business. Whilst 86 percent of respondents said they were looking to make a Connected Aircraft purchase over the next year, the number jumps to 95 percent over the next five years. Connectivity technologies are a high priority because of the accurate statistical data they provide in all sorts of ways. “It is very important in this industry to have tools that help one be proactive rather than reactive. Connectivity-related products go a long way in making this approach possible,” remarked a ground operations’ professional from a passenger airline.

Challenge No. 1: Maintenance

According to the report, 61 percent of respondents are planning to spend more in the next year than they currently do on Connected Aircraft technology and 69 percent are planning to spend even more in the next five years. Airlines are also willing to give that investment time to pay off; 27 percent expect a return between 12 and 18 months and 28 percent expect a return between 19 months and three years. About half of the respondents expect to spend up to $1 million per aircraft on connectivity technologies over the next year, with most looking to spend $100K to $500K. The bigger jump is seen over the next five years, with 38 percent of respondents reporting that they expect to spend at least $1 million per aircraft on connected technology during that time span. A full 17 percent plan to spend more than $10 million per aircraft on connected technologies over the next five years. These significant investments signal the increasing value of connected technologies in the coming years.

Maintenance issues routinely cause airlines to ground aircraft minutes before departure, which is never ideal for a business that relies on taking off and arriving on time and safely. These delays cost the industry hundreds of millions of dollars a year and contribute significantly to passenger dissatisfaction. Based on insight from commercial respondents, improvements in maintenance are the most important benefit airlines want to see from an investment in the Connected Aircraft. Maintenance was ranked as the top priority in the report, with 88 percent of respondents labelling it as an ‘extremely Important’ or a ‘very important’ investment. “In my business (commercial aviation) safety and reliability is paramount. Therefore, it is high priority to provide preventive, predictive and reliable maintenance,” said one respondent from an aircraft original equipment manufacturer (OEM). “We want to be able to predict when a component is about to fail, and change it before it does,” said a fleet management professional at a passenger airline.

Challenge No. 2: fuel consumption Fuel typically accounts for 20 to 40 percent of an airline’s operating costs. If airlines can reduce the amount of fuel used, that will make a dramatic impact on the bottom line. Therefore, it is no surprise that

An online survey of 106 respondents from around the globe was completed in partnership with Gerson Lehrman Group. Respondents were first vetted with qualifying questions to help ensure their knowledge on the topic and that they were decision-makers or purchasers. If they met the criteria, the respondents proceeded to an online survey that featured a combination of multiple-choice and open-ended questions. August 2018

African Pilot

B747 & A380: The fading giants By Edgaras Feiginas

Boeing 747-8F first flight aerial view

Airbus A380 Landing

Almost 50 years ago, the iconic 747 was born at Boeing’s Everett factory near Seattle, in the United States of America. Known as the ‘jumbo jet’, the world’s major airplane for long haul flights reshaped the concept of in-flight comfort and air travel, allowing people to fly further and cheaper. The airplane was a significant success both for Boeing and the aviation industry as a whole, allowing airlines to use more fuel-efficient planes and transport more passengers. For many years, the 747 was the symbol of commercial aviation and the most recognisable airplane around the world. However, as we stepped into a new millennium, things started to change dramatically.

Giant’s problems

The history of the jumbo jet

The jumbo jet was leading the aviation almost for three decades, when at the end of the 1990s Boeing made a bet on a different type of planes; wide body, twin engine the 777s and 787s. These two modern airplanes were highly successful and allowed Boeing to completely rethink its strategy and to embark on a different, more efficient path. Today, Boeing representatives are not any longer afraid to acknowledge that super-jumbos may soon leave the market.

In the 1960s, the USSR and the French with the British were thinking that supersonic flights were the future, creating the Tu-144 and the Concorde. Meanwhile, Americans preferred size and economic performance. The story of the jumbo jet began in 1963, when the US Air Force placed an order for a heavy transport aircraft and Boeing joined the programme with its new development of military transport aircraft that could be converted to an air tanker. However, in September 1965, the competition was won by Lockheed Martin with the new C-5 Galaxy. That decision was a huge disappointment for Boeing, but the management of the company decided it could use the technological developments for creating a new commercial aircraft.

In June 2017, Randy Tinseth, Boeing’s vice president of marketing, claimed that the company does not see a demand for big planes like the 747-8s or Airbus A380s, saying that it would be ‘a handful moving forward.’ Things are not going well with the 747’s main rival, the Airbus A380 either. As in the 747’s case, A380 aircraft are expensive in terms of operation. Its four engines have a big fuel appetite and costly maintenance. Since its commercial introduction in 2007, the A380 was announced sustainable only in February 2018, according to Didier Evrard, executive vice president head of programmes at Airbus.

African Pilot

August 2018

The idea of a big passenger airplane was largely supported by Pan American Airways’ autocratic founder Juan Trippe, who was the most powerful person in aviation at the time. It was a truly risky project both for Boeing and Pan American and nobody knew the perspectives of the airplane. Because the idea of supersonic flights was so powerful during that era, Boeing started to develop the 747 as

a cargo-passenger aircraft, with the idea that in case of failure it could easily convert the aircraft for the cargo market. The only thing that could save the project was its success. On 9 February 1969, the Boeing 747 made it first flight. Pan American promised to start using the 747 in 1970 and it kept its promise. On 22 January 1970, the jumbo jet made its first commercial flight from New York to London. The iconic aircraft was highly appreciated for its comfort, reliability and, of course its 400-passenger capacity. It could travel faster, further and it was more fuel efficient than any other jet of that time. Every airline wanted to have one as it was a symbol of prestige and success and soon all major American operators had the plane within their fleet.

New players in the game Leading the world of aviation with 30 years of global dominance, the iconic 747 started to fade in the late 1990s. When the Boeing 777 came out in 1993, airlines started to see a perspective in the new airplane, which could fly just as far as the 747, but without the burden of filling 400 seats. Therefore, airlines slowly started to replace the aging 747, with key operators like American Airlines and Continental Airlines gradually switching to other aircraft. The retirements steadily accelerated the 787 and A350 market growth, leaving no place for the legendary jumbo. The A380 superjumbo aircraft surpasses the 747 in many ways: it is modern and highly capacious, with the ability to carry more than 600 passengers. At the same time, the 747 remained popular for cargo transportation. The aviation market had no alternative for Boeing’s giant, until the situation changed in the early 1990s, when McDonnell Douglas and Airbus decided to create their own jumbo jets. McDonnell Douglas failed to create its own superjumbo aircraft named the MD-12, when the company did not receive any orders from any airlines, despite the fact that the project was truly expensive and technologically complex. Meanwhile, Airbus was doing much better, than McDonnell Douglas, with its A380. The European manufacturer was mainly targeting the Asian market, thinking that it would generate a massive passenger flow both to the US and the EU. The A380 made its first flight on 27 April 2005. Entering into service with Singapore Airlines, the aircraft made its first commercial flight from Singapore to Sydney, Australia on 25 October 2007. Presently, Emirates remains the main operator of the A380: with more than 100 aircraft in its fleet and Airbus is heavily dependent on these orders. In November 2017, Emirates ordered 40 new Boeing 787 Dreamliners, although Airbus was counting on the purchase of its A380. However, in January 2018, after a long standoff and negotiations, Emirates placed an order for 20 additional A380s, with an option for 16 more, extending the lifeline of the A380 programme for another decade. Nevertheless, the long-term future of the aircraft remains under scrutiny. In 2011, Boeing came with a new version of the 747, the 747-8i, with orders from Lufthansa, Air Korea and Air China. The new aircraft family includes both passenger and cargo versions, as well as some modifications. However, Boeing’s bid on the smaller and more efficient aircraft, as time has shown, was the right step for the American manufacturer.

New generation taking the lead In 2007, Boeing introduced the 787 Dreamliner, a midsize, widebody, long-haul, twin-engine jet. It is a highly efficient aircraft made with composite materials that offer lower cost of travel in terms of seat cost per mile. This plane allowed airlines to fly directly to smaller

regional airports instead of using large hub airports, where passengers needed to proceed for transfer flights. Compared with both the A380 and the 747, the Dreamliner was a perfect solution for airlines in terms of cost reduction and fuel efficiency. Within 10 years, Boeing received orders for almost 1,300 aircraft, with more than 630 in service. Airbus bounced back with its new A350 model, which was built to replace the existing A340. It is a direct rival of the 787 and 777 and as of January 2018, the European manufacturer received orders for 854 of this aircraft. Combining all these factors, the heavyweight jumbo jets are losing their potential and credibility. Boeing recently released its annual 20-year forecast, which stated that there was no significant demand left for building new passenger 747s or A380s, believing that airlines will continue to prefer twin-engine aircraft like the 777X or the A350. “Frankly we really don’t see much demand for really big airplanes,” said Randy Tinseth, Boeing vice president of marketing in June 2017. “There will just be a handful moving forward such as aircraft we build for VIPs, for the President and the military, but we do not see a significant demand for passenger 747-8s or A380s.” According to Andrei Kramarenko, an expert on transport economics and transport policy at Higher School of Economics in Moscow, airlines prefer to make more flights using aircraft with a lower capacity, forming a ‘few connection waves.’ The A380 was built according to ‘hub and spoke concept’, meaning that if you want to get to a minor city, then first you have to fly to a bigger city like Shanghai, which allows airlines to fill a huge airplane like the A380. However, the smaller airplanes such as the 787 or A350 were built for a different concept i.e. point to point travel. Even though some routes are less popular, because of the fuel efficiency of these planes it made such flights possible, allowing airlines to save on fuel. In aviation these minor cities are called ‘focus’ cities and the primary target are local passengers rather than passengers who have connecting flights. According to another specialist, Oleg Panteleev, the head of the analytical service of Aviaport group, twin engine, narrow body planes truly become more fuel efficient and that they deprive the giants of their main advantage; lower cost of passenger per mile. Naturally, the market for that kind of aircraft will be there for a long time, but at this moment, it becomes obvious that there is no need for an endless amount of it. The narrow body airplane market can easily put up with three manufacturers, but in the case of big wide-body airplanes, the market is tight even for two of them.

The unclear future According to Boeing’s official order book, it presently has some 16 - 747-8is to deliver; 14 jumbo freighters will go to UPS, one will go to the Korean Air and another one to an unidentified head of state. By the end of 2017, Delta and United, the biggest American airlines, had retired their 747s and since the start of the 747-8 production, no US airline has purchased the type. UPS’ order for 14 freighters is helping keep the programme afloat. Summarising, all these factors, there is a clear pattern of uncertainty regarding the two world’s biggest passenger airplanes. Surely, we are still going to see the 747, as there are nearly 500 of them still in service. Speaking about the main jumbo jet rival, the A380, there are more than 220 still flying, with Emirates being the main operator. The big price, costly maintenance and the development of new, more cost efficient and environmental friendly airplanes are putting the future existence of the 747 and the A380 under a big question. August 2018

African Pilot

New era of narrow bodies to revolutionise long distance travel The growth of commercial air transportation has ushered in new trends in how people travel and with it, new sub-industries have emerged. The airline transportation market is growing at an unprecedented rate. In 2016, for instance, airlines carried a 7% increase in passengers over 2015. With new passengers come new demands. Because of this growth, new routes are rapidly opening and airports that were once considered only a secondary city are now becoming major hubs and what seems to be emerging at the forefront of the new era in passenger growth is the introduction of narrow body aircraft on long haul routes.

How can narrow body airliners fulfill this long-range requirement? The two big players in the new era of narrow bodies for long-haul flights are the Airbus 321neoLR and the Boeing 737 MAX. “Their increased range and efficiency allows them to not only compete in a market once solely dominated by wide bodies but to also fulfill a niche that has clear demand,” says Gediminas Ziemelis, Chairman of the Board at Avia Solutions Group. The A321LR is the newest entry into the Airbus 320 family and set to have the longest range on the A320 platform. This new generation in the A321 line-up benefits from a new engine option and utilises the CFM International Leap-1A engines and three auxiliary fuel tanks. In addition, the A321LR has structural improvements in the wing to accommodate higher wing loading and in the landing gear for added support. This aircraft has a two-class 206 seat configuration and boasts a range of 7400 Kms. Airbus is also looking into a lower density cabin to extend the range even further to 9300 Km. The Boeing 737 MAX is the new, fourth generation 737 and offers the greatest range in its family thanks to innovative airframe modifications and the new CFM International LEAP-1B engines. The long-range version of the 737 MAX will be able to travel 7400kms with a capacity of 150 passengers. Like its rival, the A321LR, it will primarily be designed for long haul routes.

Niche destinations – less risk “Previously only wide body aircraft could reach such long distances over 7200km, but now narrow body aircraft can be competitive on these routes and the A321 and 737 MAX are the starters of this new era,” says Gediminas Ziemelis. However, competition on existing routes is not the only purpose of these aircraft. Long distance travel today at its best is bearable, but at its worst means long layovers and navigating through busy and unfamiliar airports. This is because hub to hub travel is necessary when transporting large amounts of passengers, as traditional long range wide body aircraft do. From the destination hub the passengers will then usually catch another flight if their final destination is to a secondary city. This new era of long range narrow body aircraft means that long haul flights can not only fly directly from a hub to a secondary city but also from secondary cities to other secondary cities. Because of the smaller seating capacity of these aircraft, they can also maintain profitability flying on niche routes and operating flights off peak hours.

whilst maintaining the payload ability for cargo revenue. However, with larger capacity comes the increased risk of flying with a half empty aircraft. However, narrow body aircraft have much less economical risk so they are in the unique position to open up new long-range routes. Another factor in favour of narrow bodies is that even the highest capacity seating arrangement cannot compensate for better efficiency and performance. The new generation of efficient engines and the superior aerodynamic qualities of narrow body aircraft means that in some cases wide bodies are being outperformed. A recent study from Leeham News concludes the Boeing 737 Max will actually have lower cost per available seat mile (CASM) than the wide body 787-800.

The Siberian corridor case study The Siberian flight corridor is a complex topic in commercial aviation. As the shortest distance between Europe and Asia is through Siberia it is essential that flights be able to fly through Russian airspace unrestricted to have the shortest possible time en-route. 133 countries have signed the International Civil Aviation Organisation transit agreement, which allows any airline to be able to fly through the signatories’ airspace unrestricted. However, Russia has not signed this agreement, so they use their geopolitical position to pick and choose who can fly through their airspace. As it stands, they only allow one airline per European country to fly through their airspace, which was fine in the past, but as a result of the massive growth of the airline industries many newer airlines are trying to get permission. One such airline is the budget operator Norwegian. Because another airline from Norway, SAS, already has permission to fly Norwegian has been unsuccessful in attempts to negotiate an agreement with Russia. They are not the only carrier facing this problem either. As more and more budget airlines are acquiring long range narrow body aircraft they are looking to expand their routes to the Far East. So far, no new European carrier has been successful in its negotiations but as pressure from the airlines build there might be changes to the access of Siberian airspace in the near future with fleets of narrow body aircraft ready to pave the way.

Just getting started The key to successful airlines is their ability to capitalise on routes and create a valuable travel experience for passengers to maintain profitability. Competition between the airlines is at an all-time high and when the competition is tough in the end the consumer wins. In order to find an edge amongst their competitor’s airlines look for a competitive advantage and in this new era of competition a new era of aircraft is opening up new pathways in the sky that before, would likely not have been profitable. “Whilst narrow body long haul aircraft are already displacing some of the much larger aircraft on previous routes there is no question that they are also set to conquer new territory in the sky by removing the previous limitation of utilisation of existing long-haul fleets,” concludes Gediminas Ziemelis.

Are narrow bodies the perfect solution? Despite the clear advantages narrow body aircraft have on some routes and the expected large-scale adoption of them, there are still some potential challenges they face. Primarily the economy of scale is stacked against them. With only a small percentage increase in operating costs wide body aircraft can have a lower cost-per-seat

African Pilot

August 2018

Boeing 737 MAX 10

August 2018

African Pilot

Aerox in your aircraft 1. Aerox has been designing and manufacturing a wide range of aviation oxygen systems and accessories since 1981. In addition to the popular range of portable systems, the company also provides OEM systems for Diamond, Maverick Jet, Malibu and many other aircraft. They were the first to modify medical cannulas (a thin tube inserted into a vein or body cavity to administer medication, drain off fluid, or insert a surgical instrument) for use in aviation resulting in up to 6 times the duration of conventional systems.

Why arrive tired? Have you pilots ever wondered why many of your passengers sleep through a flight? Have you ever wondered why you have made an uneventful, pleasant two-hour flight at 8000 feet and arrived at your destination yawning and feeling fatigued, or perhaps even with a mild headache? It is no mystery; it is Hypoxia. Not, perhaps, to the degree that you were an unsafe pilot, but enough to cause the classical symptom of hypoxia: tiredness and according to the FAA, 25% of night vision is lost at 8000 feet, even for a healthy non-smoker. Prior to the introduction of the AeroxÂŽ high-duration

African Pilot

August 2018

system, the wise pilot reserved the use of oxygen for situations where it was legally necessary; i.e., above 12,500 feet. Many light aircraft did not have an oxygen system. Most pilots did not purchase systems for practical reasons: short duration of supply, discomfort of wearing oxygen masks, difficult and costly refills, heavy weight and large bulk. AeroxÂŽ systems eliminate all these objections, plus one more: the price is right! We believe you will add to your flying comfort, safety and pleasure by using oxygen at an altitude above 8000 feet during the day and 5000 feet at night. Because AEROX systems make your oxygen supply last up to eight times longer than other systems, it is reasonable to do exactly that. Why arrive tired?

Aerox Portable Systems are more affordable than you think.

Contact Comet Aviation Supplies 0027 11 825 0048 or info@cometaviationsupplies.co.za

First landing on an unpaved runway for the PC-24

The Pilatus PC-24 aircraft is currently undergoing a programme of post-certification tests with special emphasis on unpaved runway operations. Pilatus plans on obtaining ‘rough field’ certification in the fourth quarter of 2018. Woodbridge Airfield to the north east of London offers optimum test conditions. Pilatus spent two weeks there testing the PC-24’s landing and take-off capabilities on the airfield’s unpaved runway for the first time. From the outset, the PC-24 was designed for ‘off road’ operations. Its outstanding performance on short unpaved runways opens up an incredible degree of flexibility and new opportunities. The PC-24 provides access to almost twice as many airports worldwide compared with other jets currently available on the market.

“

What a picture – the PC-24 in the toughest conditions, using an unpaved runway for the first time! This sort of mission would not be conceivable without the PC-24’s rugged landing gear, clever flap systems and special wing design. The PC-24 was designed with exactly this sort of operation in mind. That is Swiss engineering at its very best!

”

said Oscar J. Schwenk, Chairman of Pilatus. Pilatus obtained basic certification for the PC-24 on 7 December 2017. Since that date, five aircraft have been delivered to customers in Europe and the USA. A total of 23 PC-24s are scheduled for delivery in 2018. The Royal Flying Doctor Service of Australia (RFDS) will use the PC-24 for medevac missions in Australia from 2019, which will obviously involve landing on and taking off from short unpaved runways. The PC-24 order book is closed for the time being. Pilatus plans to accept new orders in 2019. August 2018

African Pilot

First new Garmin G600 TXI touch screen installed in Africa

During the ﬁrst quarter of this year Century Avionics undertook the installation of Africa’s ﬁrst Garmin G600TXI MFD / PFD touch screen system into a King Air F90. The G600 / 500 TXi was introduced to the industry beginning November 2017 with initial shipments commencing in February 2018. The Garmin PFD/MFD G600/500 TXi system has an ability for multiple panel configurations and display orientations which allows pilots and aircraft owners to better leverage their current or future avionics investments. Three display formats support over 25 approved cockpit configurations and more than 600 aircraft makes / models. Installation configurations vary as the TXi family is also capable of displaying piston engine information on a dedicated 7-inch display or in split screen mode on the 10.6-inch display. Up to four displays can be installed in a single cockpit, offering superior scalability in hundreds of aircraft.

replaced include the airspeed indicator, flight director, encoding altimeter, turn coordinator, pilot’s complete slaved compass system, vertical speed indicator, radar altimeter, radio magnetic indicator and course indicator. By removing the aging analogue units, Century gained the required panel space for the new Garmin G600 TXi MFD / PFD display. Century Avionics manufactured a new pilot panel on its CNC machine to accommodate the new 10.6-inch display.

The TXi family incorporates a familiar touchscreen design with modern processors that support improved map and chart rendering, faster panning and contemporary single-finger zoom and pinch-to-zoom gestures. Through any combination of the touchscreen or dual concentric knobs, pilots can quickly access and view flight information at a glance. Modernised displays and large fonts offer improved readability, while the simplistic user-interface helps reduce overall pilot workload. Carin van Zyl – Sales and Marketing at Century Avionics said: “Our customer requested that we clean up the panel, supply the cockpit with complete and added functionality and situational awareness for this single pilot operation. Straight away knew that the G-600 TXI with its familiar Garmin design now in a 10.6-inch touchscreen with added functionality and modern processors that supports improved map and chart rendering, faster panning and contemporary single, finger zoom and pinchto-zoom gestures, would supply the customer with the easy to use functionality that was required”. By installing the Garmin G600 TXi Century replaced nine aging instruments on the pilot panel and removed the weight of the old Line Replacement Units (LRUs) in the aircraft. The units

African Pilot

August 2018

BEFORE

The Garmin GAD 43e adapter unit offers enhanced autopilot interface capabilities for the G600 / G500 TXi flight display systems and the already installed equipment. Providing analogue attitude information for use with a wider array of third-party autopilot systems, the GAD 43e adapter interfaces with the G500 / 600 flight display for configuration and alerting, including the remote AHRS unit for attitude, heading and yaw input information. Therefore, for attitude-based autopilots, the GAD 43e can emulate the system’s gyro interfaces (such

AFTER as the familiar KI-256) with far more reliable AHRS data. The Garmin GMU 44 magnetometer is a remote mounted device that interfaces with a Garmin GSU 75 to provide flight attitude and heading data for flight instrumentation. An attitude and heading reference system combines the functions of a vertical gyro and a directional gyro to provide measurement of roll, pitch and heading angles. The Garmin ADAHRS and magnetometer replace traditional rotating mass instruments. Support for the GSU 75 ADAHRS combines air data, attitude and heading reference, which reduces wiring and installation complexity The Garmin G600 TXI was able to flawlessly interface to the existing Genesys AeroSystems STec 65 autopilot that was in the aircraft. The Garmin G600 TXI was able to supply the functions of flight director and altitude pre-select to the autopilot. These functions were previously supplied by separate LRUs, and by removing them resulted in saving space and weight, adding functionality. To comply with the request of a cleaner panel with enhanced functionality for the pilot, Century Avionics selected the L3 ESI-500 Electronic Standby Instrument. The L3 ESI-500 has its own dedicated built in battery pack and remote mounted magnetometer supplying the pilot with accurate airspeed,

attitude, altimeter, inclinometer (slip / skid), vertical speed and aircraft track information all in one compact standby indicator. The L3â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Next-Generation Electronic Standby Instrument System ESI-500 is one of the most advanced standby instruments designed specifically for piston and turboprop aircraft and helicopters. The ESI-500 is compatible with existing NAV radios and GPS hardware. Upon loss of power an internal lithium-ion battery pack automatically powers the unit and magnetometer without interruption. Century Avionics was proud to deliver this beautiful installation on time to a very happy customer and they look forward to the next installation of its kind.

For more information or to receive a no obligation quote please contact

Century Avionics Tel: +27 11 701 3244 E-mail: salesadmin1@centuryavionics.co.za Website: www.centuryavionics.co.za August 2018

African Pilot

2018

Event

Venue

Contact

1 to 5 August

SAC National Championships

Tempe Bloemfontein

Annie Boon E-mail: chunge@mweb.co.za

5 to 11 August

SAPFA World Rally Flying Competition

Dubnicac Slovakia

Website: www.akdubnica.sk

9 August

Womenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s day fly-in at Stellenbosch Flying Club

Stellenbosch

Alison 082 728 7386 or Louise 083 454 1104

16 - 26 August

SAC Advanced World Championships

Romania

Annie Boon E-mail chunge@mweb.co.za

19 August

Rand Airshow (Sunday)

Rand Airport

Stuart Coetzee E-mail: manager@randairport.co.za Tel: 011 827 8884

21 - 22 August

Modern Airports

Nairobi, Kenya

Donna Bravo enquiry@iqpc.ae www.iqpc.ae

24 - 25 August

Bethlehem Airshow

Bethlehem

Stefan Fourie fouriesj1491@gmail.com

25 August

SAPFA Sheila Taylor Fun Rally

Krugersdorp Airfield

Grant Rousseau 082 329 3551 gr@kama.co.za

8 September

SAPFA Grand Central Fun Rally

Grand Central Airport Midrand

Rob Jonkers 082 804 7032 rob@aerosud.co.za

15 - 16 September

SAC Judges Trophy

Tzaneen Airfield TBC

Annie Boon chunge@mweb.co.za

19 - 23 September

Africa Aerospace and Defence AAD2018

Waterkloof Air Force Base

Leona Redlinghuis 084 840 3215 www.aadexpo.co.za

6 October

SAPFA Secunda Fun Rally

Secunda Airfield

Jonty Esser 082 855 9435 chairman@sapfa.co.za

Airshow organisers: African Pilot annual airshow award details on our website: www.africanpilot.co.za Local 0861 001130 International +27 11 466 8524 Pre & post publicity: E-mail: editor@africanpilot.co.za Website: www.africanpilot.co.za Details are published in the magazine, the African Pilot weekly Newsletter and the African Pilot Website. They serve to remind aviation enthusiasts of forthcoming events during the week running up to the event. Capital Sounds for sound and broadcast: Brian Emmenis 057 388 2351 E-mail: capital@icon.co.za ASSA - Air Show South Africa Website: www.airshowsa.org.za. To reserve an airshow or fly-in please book on-line: www.airshowsa.org.za Louise Hofmeyer 083 454 1104 E-mail: louise@airshowsa.org.za Management & Airshow Authorisation: Tania van den Berg RAASA 011 082 1000 E-mail: tania@raasa.co.za Website: www.raasa.co.za

African Pilot

August 2018

African Pilot

Seize the opportunity. As we are shooting ‘action aviation events’ we seldom have the opportunity to setup a picture. In this case as I was a passenger during a normal display I could not ‘pose’ the aircraft for the perfect picture so I kept my eyes open for any opportunity that came my way. It helps if one can ‘picture’ and anticipate the photograph in your mind’s eye, that way you can be ready if the chance presents itself to you. At the 2018 Newcastle airshow Ellis Levin approached me and said the next water-skiing sortie the Puma Energy Flying Lions would do I could have a back seat in one of their aircraft.This happened during the 2018 Race for Rhinos Air Race held at Sua Pan during their scheduled signature dusk display. I had the privilege to fly in the back seat of Ellis Levine’s Harvard and kept my eye out for any potential photograph. Fortunately, during one of the turns the formation passed in front of the incredible sunsets that occur in this awesome region. This is shot through the canopy of the Harvard and below us are the drying pans of Botash’s salt mine, in themselves an awesome backdrop to pictures. It was quite difficult as we were flying with a closed canopy and my head was rattling against the canopy whilst my lens was rattling against the other side. But in the end worth it. I thank The Flying Lions and Ellis Levin for the opportunity, which was the highlight of the weekend.

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August 2018

Sunset over Sua Pan Botswana By Charlie Hugo Camera: Canon 1DX with 24-105 IS L (Mk1 lens) ISO 100 shutter priority 1/200th sec.