Assembly election 2022

BREXIT

Protocol package could be formalised

The EU Commission has suggested it is ready to produce legislation to mitigate against trade frictions between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, but has urged the UK Government to engage in the process. The EU’s Brexit negotiator Maroš Šefčovič has told MEPs that he is prepared to turn a previously proposed package of solutions in to draft legislation in a bid to draw the UK back into formal negotiations to deliver workable solutions to the current impasse. Šefčovič’s address came just days after the UK’s Foreign Secretary outlined to the House of Commons her plans to bring forward a domestic bill to change the post-Brexit trade deal for Northern Ireland, claiming that it will be legal under international law.

In response, the EU said that it would “need to respond with all measures at its disposal”, if the UK was to take unilateral action. Following the 2022 Assembly Election in May, the DUP, having already indicated its intention not to enable a fresh Executive, opted not to agree to a new Speaker, meaning the Assembly cannot sit and Executive ministers from the last mandate are now operating in a caretaker capacity, with limited powers.

The party has said that it will wait to see progress on the UK Government’s plans before committing to any action.

The EU Commission has constantly reiterated that it will not renegotiate the binding agreement it agreed with the UK less than two years ago, however, Šefčovič believes that the formalisation of legislative proposals put forward in October 2021, could prevent action by the UK Government and refocus negotiations.

Former Education Minister John O’Dowd MLA has been appointed as the new Infrastructure Minister, taking on the role in a caretaker capacity until a new Executive can be formed.

Sinn Féin’s O’Dowd takes the place of Nichola Mallon, who lost her north Belfast seat in May’s Assembly election. The SDLP, which lost four seats in the Assembly, opted not to take up the option of putting forward a replacement for Mallon citing its reduced mandate. Assembly rules mean that Sinn Féin is the next party by vote share entitled to nominate another minister.

The DUP says that it will not nominate ministers for a new Executive until its demands around the removal of the Protocol are met. Under new legislation passed by the UK Government, in the event of failure to nominate, ministers may continue to serve in a reduced capacity for up to six months.

In his first publication, Minister O’Dowd outlined a commitment to “improving the quality of life for people across the north”, but cited the challenges of delivering vital public services in the absence of an agreed budget.

“Of course we know that the absence of a functioning Executive and no budget in place for this year, makes the challenge all the greater. Vital funding is locked away. New initiatives within the department cannot be undertaken,” he said.

PUBLIC AFFAIRS

O’Dowd announced as Infrastructure Minister

Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2022

Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill MLA, elected in Mid Ulster, now has a mandate to take up the post of First Minister.

The Northern Ireland Assembly Election in May 2022 was historic for a number of reasons but none more so than the mandating of a nationalist First Minister for the first time since the formation of the State.

While a range of notable themes emerged from the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly Election, not least the rise of the ‘others’, the split vote of unionism and the decline of the SDLP, undoubtedly, the foremost outcome was the emergence of nationalist Sinn Féin as the largest party at Stormont.

In a legislature, originally created to ensure perpetual unionist rule, a tipping of the balance is not only significant but also symbolic. The default unionism setting, historically in place since partition, can now no longer be assumed, neither internally nor externally.

Equally symbolic is the right given to Sinn Féin by the electorate to now hold the post of First Minister, if and when the Assembly returns. While many have, and will, rightly emphasise the joint authority of the First and deputy First Minister positions in the Executive Office, that control of the First Minister’s office was central to the pre-election rhetoric, for those both opposed and in favour of a nationalist First Minister, is telling.

Those seeking to downplay Sinn Féin’s success have pointed to no gains in the party’s seat numbers (27) and little change in first preference votes since 2017 (29 per cent compared to 27.9 per cent in 2017). Instead, the narrative is that a greater spread of votes across unionist parties, coupled with an uplift in Alliance support, led to seat declines for both the DUP (-3) and the UUP (-1). However, such a narrative fails to recognise changing trends. The 2017 election result was widely identified as a high watermark for Sinn Féin. Less than a year before, it had lost an Assembly seat and seen its first preference vote share fall by almost 3 per cent. Fast forward to the emergence of the RHI scandal, the resignation of then-deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness and Arlene Foster’s crocodile comments in relation to the Irish language, and a fresh election saw Sinn Féin close the gap on the DUP to one seat, lifting their first preference votes on the year before.

That Sinn Féin has not only been able to hold but build upon its 2017 support by the electorate is significant.

DUP leader Jeffery Donaldson MP led his party to a loss of three seats.

First preference vote share (%): election 2022

Ind/Other 5% SDLP 9% TUV 8% PBP 1% Green 2%

SinnFéin 29%

UUP 11%

Allianceparty 14%

success, of equal importance to a party’s final tally is whether it is transfer friendly. Highlighting this, only 21 of the 90 MLAs elected in May 2021 had a sufficient number of first preference votes to meet the quota and to be elected at the first count.

Interestingly, the DUP was the most transferable party, receiving 26 per cent, compared to the SDLP’s 20 per cent, Alliance’s 17 per cent, UUP’s 13 per cent and Sinn Féin’s 9 per cent.

Parties running multiple candidates often distort transfer data, with the majority of their transfers coming from party colleagues. However, of note is the fact that most of the DUP’s transfers came from the TUV (40 per cent), most of the SDLP’s transfers came from Alliance (28 per cent), while the Alliance Party had a broad appeal to voters of the UUP (23 per cent), Sinn Féin (21 per cent) and the SDLP (16 per cent).

DUP 21%

Source: NI Assembly Elections Report.

Unelected

Pre-election, a number of figures announced their intention to not stand for election and leave frontline politics. The DUP’s Jim Wells, the Alliance Party’s Chris Lyttle, and the SDLP’s Sinéad Bradley were some of the 11 MLAs who for various reasons said they would not be returning to Stormont. However, the election also ousted a number of highprofile names. Early in the election count it became clear that Infrastructure Minister Nichola Mallon’s seat in north Belfast was under threat and while the hope of transfers kept the now-former MLA in contention late into the count, the seat was eventually declared for the Alliance Party’s Nuala McAllister MLA.

With the DUP failing to nominate a deputy First Minister, existing ministers took up caretaker roles, however, without a mandate, Mallon’s position was returned to the SDLP to replace her. When the

UUP leader Doug Beattie could not lead a resurgence of the Party’s electoral fortunes.

party opted not to, the nomination switched to Sinn Féin, which installed John O’Dowd MLA.

Another recent minister to miss out was the DUP’s Peter Weir who, up until the party’s leadership crisis, held the education portfolio. One of Stormont’s longest serving MLAs, Weir had held a seat since 1998 and was expected to return.

While having served for a shorter tenure, the SDLP’s Pat Catney’s had hoped his work in the Assembly, not least the successful introduction and passage of his Private Member’s Bill securing the provision throughout Northern Ireland of free period products, would ensure a return, but he narrowly missed out on consolidating what was an election upset in 2017, when he gained the seat in the historically unionist stronghold of Lagan Valley.

Other long-standing casualties included the DUP’s Mervyn Storey, the UUP’s longest serving MLA Roy Beggs and their sole female MLA in the last mandate Rosemary Barton, as well as the SDLP’s Dolores Kelly. The loss of two Green Party MLAs, including party leader Clare Bailey, marked a loss of the party’s total cohort of seats.

Gender balance

The 32 female MLAs elected in May 2022, more than one-third of all members (35.6 per cent), represents a record number and a significant increase than the first postGood Friday Agreement Assembly of just 13 per cent females.

A total of 17 more female candidates stood in 2022 than in 2017, meaning that females made up over 36 per cent of all candidates. Female representation in the Assembly chamber will increase slightly from election results, given that DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson MP has once again opted to co-opt Emma LittlePengelly MLA into an Assembly seat.

Future

On Friday 13 May, MLAs gathered in Stormont for what would usually be the launch of Assembly business via the election of a Speaker and deputy speakers. In protest against the Northern Ireland Protocol, the DUP intends to not participate in establishing a working Assembly and Executive, meaning that all other MLAs are essentially locked out. In failing to support the election of a Speaker, the party essentially paused the operation of the Assembly.

Similarly, the Executive cannot meet without a First and deputy First Minister. The DUP said it would not nominate ministers to Stormont’s governing Executive, meaning that ministers from the last mandate are currently acting in a caretaker capacity.

Under changes to the Northern Ireland Act brought forward by the British Government amid the last collapse of Stormont, following an election, there is a six-month window for an Executive to be formed before a fresh election is triggered. The DUP has set a high bar of demand for radical changes to the Protocol and even the UK Government’s plans to domestically legislate changes to the Protocol, against the advice of the EU, might not go far enough to meet demands.

If so, Northern Ireland faces a fresh Assembly election in early winter.

Translink’s ambitions: Public transport’s future

Translink looks forward to working with stakeholders during the new Assembly mandate to deliver a highquality public transport network and progress ambitious plans to drive a modal shift in favour of greener public transport; a better option for travel socially, economically and above all, environmentally.

Our goal is to deliver a 50 per cent reduction in our current emissions by 2030, using science-based targets and in line with our Climate Action Pledge. With political support, we have taken significant action already, delivering 100 new zero emission buses for Metro in Belfast, converting around one third of the Metro fleet to zero emission. Next year will see us reach a milestone, as Derry~Londonderry becomes the first city in these islands to benefit from a 100 per cent zero emission urban bus fleet. We continue to develop the use of renewable energy sources, including the introduction of two new hydrogen refuelling stations – the only such facilities anywhere in Ireland – and one of Europe’s largest electric charge points at Milewater Service Centre in north Belfast.

By this summer, we will operate the fourth-largest zero emission bus fleet in the UK and Ireland, supporting Northern Ireland-based manufacturers. Incorporating the potential for electric and hydrogen technologies, we are also developing a rail infrastructure plan focused on decarbonising the rail network. Our plans for the rail network will also see us grow capacity with the provision of new train carriages; all 21 of our new carriages will soon be in operational service.

We aim to achieve net zero across our network by 2040, making a huge contribution to Northern Ireland’s progress. This is essential, not only from an environmental perspective, but also socially and from a public health perspective – it is estimated that by 2035, 84,000 new cases of disease in Northern Ireland, directly associated with air pollution, will have been recorded, at a projected cost to our health service of approximately £635 million.

Investment

While existing funding has gone a long way towards delivering positive results in recent years, helping Translink drive a shift in transport habits, challenges remain. Public transport in Northern Ireland has traditionally received less public funding than any other UK region, with per head spending only around 27 per cent of the UK average. This must