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Electric mobility trends
Credit: CHUTTERSNAP
Electric mobility: Key trends
Capital markets, consumer demand, climate change reduction ambitions and new skills acquisition have created a momentum for electric mobility that even the global pandemic will not halt.
“The momentum behind cleaner, software-enabled forms of mobility is powerful and seemingly unstoppable,” a report by McKinsey and Company declared, before detailing four key trends driving clean, electric, connected mobility.
The assumption is a brave one when considering the levels of disruption future mobility ambitions have undergone in the past two years but an in-depth look at the trends serves to highlight that a slowdown in mobility demand driven by the pandemic should not have a lasting impact on the electric vehicle market.
Global EV sales in early 2019 had reached record highs, with an estimated two million EVs sold globally, but whereas previously statistics served to underpin predictions on EV growth, recent figures are obsolete because of the levels of unprecedented disruption. Global sales for 2020 were predicted to fall by between 20 to 25 per cent in a best-case scenario and up to 50 per cent in Covid-19 worst hit areas.
However, despite the disruption, significant momentum in a number of key areas points to resilience in the electric mobility market. The first of those key trends, as highlighted by McKinsey is the continued interest by capital markets. The report points out that under the disruption, the mobility industry continues to outperform top industries, including big tech, in capital markets.
Capital markets
The reasons underpinning performance are wide-ranging but the report points to key initiatives that appear to be driving capital market interest. The first is the opportunity for diversification. The direct replacement of internalcombustion engines by EVs is a massive market opportunity in itself, but recent years have seen the mobility industry initiate moves into more diverse markets such as shared mobility and the advanced connectivity solutions for EVs, offering clear pathways for market evolution in the decades ahead.
The second is the evolution and growth of the automotive software market, estimated to grow by 250 per cent by 2030 and the third is somewhat related to this software boom. New mobility players are approaching the future with a software-first mentality, attracting the best talent, compared to traditional industry players who will require a major shift in their operations and the reskilling of their existing talent.
A fourth reason is the appeal of green investment. Carbon neutral solutions are attracting the interest of investors and consumers. In response, the EV industry has sought to tailor its offering to consumer demands and customer-
Total return to shareholders, H2 2019-2020, weighted average by market caps as of June 2019 (%)
Newmobility Semiconductors Big tech Insurance Telco Energy,oilandgas Traditionalauto
167 63
centric solutions have helped broaden the appeal beyond carbon neutrality.
Consumer demand
Governments across the globe have been grappling with the most efficient and cost-effective method of altering consumer behaviour. Most realise the importance of establishing a pathway for a major mobility shift out to 2030 if ambitions for 2050 are to be achieved. While in Europe, many member states are engaged in developing the roadmap to ensure a mass public EV transition, the McKinsey report highlights that other global nations are already well advanced in their journey. Offering a snapshot of what the global market may become, the report highlights that China’s automakers have adapted advanced technologies to meet and go above customer expectation. Beyond electrification, in vehicle technology customisation has seen a rapid spike in interest in vehicle connectivity, with consumers willing to spend more on connected vehicles.
Climate change
A further key trend identified by the McKinsey report is that of climate change and the perceived role of EVs in decarbonising transport. Road transport currently accounts for some 13 per cent of global carbon emissions and decarbonisation of the sector has been slow when compared to the likes of energy. enabling foundation of EV rollout. However, experts suggest that time is running out for significant progress to be made in EV uptake if transport is to play its part in preventing the global temperature rise above 1.5oC in 2050. The scale of the challenge can be viewed in the context that a number of previously envisaged trigger points for mass EV uptake have already been triggered, for example, the cost of EV batteries has plummeted since 2010 to record lows and investment levels in EV-related tech have multiplied significantly. The report identifies five major challenges that remain:
1. Pace: By 2035, more than 95 per cent of all cars and trucks on the road would need to be zeroemission to limit warming to the desired levels, making the next decade crucial.
2. Leveraging the potential of transition technologies including hybrid vehicles and gas-powered cars.
3. Exploration of multimodal mobility and traffic optimisation to reduce the miles travelled.
4. Energy: the renewable share of power will need to be increased to reduce road transport emissions.
5. Decarbonising supply chains:
Ensuring that all aspects of EV delivery, including manufacturing and transport are decarbonised. great but one that has been accepted as necessary, and so, meeting climate change reduction ambitions is a driver of electric mobility and should drive cross-sectoral cooperation for a circular economy.
51
18 11 8
Source: S&P Capital IQ: McKinsey analysis
Skills
The final trend identified by McKinsey and Company is that of a recognition that skill sets will need to be adapted to meet mobility shifts. EV technology, software and connectivity will require very different skills sets to the existing combustion engine market and it has been recognised that mass uptake of EVs could result in up to a third of the current automotive industries workforce’s skill sets being insufficient. While new players in the mobility market have adopted an approach that sees them compete with big tech and other large industries for talent, the existing automotive industry is also attempting to diversify into the evolving market.
To do this, traditional players are recognising the need to develop, not only engineers of the future but skills in relation to software, data analytics and marketing. This skills development is driving innovation, helping to meet customer demand, and attracting investment into a market that, despite pandemic disruption, is gathering in momentum.
Real progress on rail’s role in our sustainable future
Support for a stronger rail network is being seen in policy and investment decisions says Jim Meade, Chief Executive of Iarnród Éireann.
In parallel with our management of Iarnród Éireann’s network and services through the Covid-19 crisis, we have been focused on our post-Covid future. This is to ensure that our railway is at the heart of a sustainable future for Ireland, with policy at European, national, and regional level prioritising sustainable mobility and decarbonisation, to support our environment, economy, and society.
If anything, the support for a sustainable transport network which existed across policymakers, regulatory bodies, and our wider communities and businesses, has strengthened through the crisis. This means that, with the progress made on our ambitions for our rail service and network over the past 12 months, we are well positioned to ensure rail is the backbone of such a network.
There has never been a time when we have such a unique opportunity to facilitate a more sustainable pattern of travel, development, and economic activity, to meet climate action goals at national and international level and improve quality of life for generations to come.
DART+ Programme
Before Covid-19, in 2019, we in Iarnród Éireann carried a record 50.1 million passengers on our services, across Intercity, DART and Commuter, and trends were set to see yet more record highs successively this year, and in the years to come. Internationally however, in countries like New Zealand who have reopened practically fully, we are seeing stronger recovery in public transport patronage, meaning the importance of building our network capacities remain.
At the heart of our plans is DART+, supported by the Irish Government under the National Development Plan.
Put simply, this investment will allow more trains to operate on all routes on our network, by building the capacity of the most congested sections in the Greater Dublin area.
It will see:
• the electrification of the Maynooth, Hazelhatch and Drogheda rail lines;
• associated works such as the elimination of level crossings on the
Maynooth line;
• infrastructure works to allow more trains to operate, including at
Connolly and Docklands;
• integration with other public transport modes including proposed MetroLink and
BusConnects programmes;
• a major expansion of our fleet, with up to 750 electric and hybrid train carriages to be ordered, resulting in almost 80 per cent of journeys on our network being delivered under electric power;
• all leading to a doubling of the carrying capacity of the Greater
Dublin Area network.
Public consultation on DART+ West (Maynooth/M3 Parkway) and DART+ South West (Hazelhatch to Heuston) is
well underway, with planning for DART+ Coastal (Drogheda to Greystones) also having commenced.
Crucially, the order for the fleet set to be at the heart of our service over the coming decades is now just months away.
As well as ensuring our new fleet is more sustainable, we have also begun a programme to convert our existing Intercity railcar fleet to diesel electric operation, reducing emissions, fuel usage, costs, and noise.
Improving access to services for all customers will also be at the heart of our investment plans. Accessibility for mobility and sensory impaired customers will be a principle of all station and fleet improvements, and our largest ever lift renewal programme is underway. Investment in park and ride facilities, and customer information will also make our services easier to access and to use.
National network
Investment in infrastructure in the Dublin area will not only benefit Dublin commuter belt services, however. It will grow our ability to operate services right around the country. We are also ambitious to see journey time improvements on national routes, and targeted line speed improvement works are already taking place.
Regional cities
We have also seen huge progress in our plans to strengthen the role of rail for our regional cities.
As part of the Government’s National Recovery Plan, €185 million is to be invested in the Cork commuter rail network, under the EU-funded Recovery and Resilience Plan. increase the Cork commuter rail network’s capacity to deliver DART-type frequency, through three major elements:
• Double-tracking Glounthaune to
Midleton;
• Developing a new through platform at Kent Station for through running for Mallow to Midleton/Cobh; and
• Resignalling the Cork commuter network.
The announcement also made clear that the next steps after this funding will be to electrify the Cork commuter network, and develop new stations, as planned under the Cork Metropolitan Area Transport Strategy (CMATS).
In Galway, funding under the Urban Regeneration Development Fund (URDF) for the western region includes two significant projects which will improve frequency, integration, and facilities for rail services to and from Galway city.
Investment of €9.3 million will include a 1km passing railway loop at the existing Oranmore Train Station, including an additional platform and associated infrastructure, which will allow the busy commuter link between Athenry and Galway to grow, in advance of our ambition for full double-tracking of the section in the future.
Ceannt Station in the heart of Galway city will benefit from a major €40.3 million Galway City Council Transport Connectivity project. It includes Ceannt Quarter Regeneration, a Brownfield regeneration scheme comprising of redevelopment of Ceannt Station. It will result in an integrated transport hub in the heart of Galway City Centre.
Waterford’s Plunkett Station will be relocated to be part of an integrated transport hub under plans to develop the city’s North Quays. In Limerick, the completion of the city’s own transportation hub centred on Colbert Station will also boost services, and the Limerick Shannon Metropolitan Area Transport Strategy will assess the opportunities provided by the network of rail lines around Limerick City.
Rail freight and Rosslare Europort
New rail freight business, with XPO Logistics between Ballina and Waterford, and major expansion of direct services between Ireland and the European Continent through Rosslare Europort, for which Iarnród Éireann is Port Authority, have also been delivered since the start of 2021.
Rosslare Europort’s status as Ireland’s gateway to Europe has been confirmed post-Brexit, with 17 services operate each way to and from Europe each week, making it Ireland’s foremost RoRo port for continental services.
We will build on Rosslare’s critical role for Ireland’s economy, ensuring efficiency and sustainability in our operations, through the port’s Masterplan, investing over €40 million in port facilities, infrastructure, and systems.
The direction of travel, and acceleration of momentum, is clear. Our journey to our sustainable future is en route to a destination which will benefit our country, our environment, our communities, and our society as a whole, and everyone is welcome on board.
T: (01) 8366 222 E: IENews@irishrail.ie W: www.irishrail.ie
