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Russian gas

Russian gas: IEA 10-point plan for Europe

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA. In the 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union’s Reliance on Russian Natural Gas, the International Energy Agency (IEA) outlines a strategy aimed at reducing the EU’s gas imports from Russia by one-third, with potential, it contends, to increase this to 50 per cent while still reducing emissions.

Amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, uncertainty shrouds the future of Russian gas supplies next winter.

In 2021 alone, the EU imported 155 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from Russia, totalling 45 per cent of its gas imports and almost 40 per cent of its gas consumption. Europe’s overreliance on imported Russian natural gas has come under close scrutiny following the invasion of Ukraine. A proposed reduction would require a radical and concerted policy effort by member states.

According to the IEA, its proposed measures are consistent with the climate objectives of the European Green Deal and have regard for both energy security and affordability.

However, as a result of the risk to the European economy, the IEA did not include additional measures to stymie industrial demand for Russian gas in the near-term. 1. Moratorium on new Russian gas supply contracts Impact: Reducing the minimum take-orpay levels for Russian imports, enabling a greater diversity of gas supply.

2. Source alternative gas supplies Impact: Increase additional gas supply from non-Russian sources by approximately 30 bcm per annum.

3. Introduce minimum gas storage obligations Impact: Improved gas system resilience balanced against increased demand and cost amid higher injection requirements to refill storage in 2022.

5. Maximise generation from bioenergy and nuclear sources Impact: A 13 bcm reduction of gas use for electricity through an additional 70 Twh of power generated by existing dispatchable low emission sources.

7. Accelerate heat pump deployment Impact: An additional 2 bcm reduction in gas consumption for heating per annum.

9. Incentivise consumer thermostat adjustment Impact: Reducing thermostat temperature in buildings by 1oC across the EU could reduced gas demand by up to 10 bcm per annum. 4. Accelerate renewable energy deployment Impact: Reduced gas use amid a 35 Twh increase on anticipated generation from new renewable energy projects next year.

6. Shield vulnerable electricity consumers Impact: Reduced energy bills for vulnerable consumers via redistributed tax receipts from windfall profits.

8. Accelerate energy efficiency improvements in buildings and industry Impact: Lower energy bills, greater comfort, and enhanced economic competitiveness.

10. Diversify and decarbonise sources of power system flexibility Impact: Disentanglement of the link between Europe’s natural gas supply and its electricity security, increased flexible demand, and a reduction of expensive, gas-intensive peak supply demand.

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