42 minute read
MaREI Director Brian Ó Gallachóir on the role of carbon budgets
Carbon budgets: Moving from climate ambition to climate action
MaREI Director Professor Brian Ó Gallachóir discusses the role of carbon budgets in the interface between climate ambition to climate action and explores some of the tough choices that need to be made in relation to pathways.
Ó Gallachóir, a member of the enhanced Climate Change Advisory Council’s carbon budgets committee, believes that climate ambition has tended to focus on the end goals, rather than on the pathways required to get there.
Discussing the enshrinement in policy of the 30 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions target in 2019, later raised to 51 per cent through the Programme for Government and bolstered by a net-zero carbon target by 2050, Ó Gallachóir says: “These endpoint targets are very important but they are not the full story. The pathway to get to that endpoint is critical and carbon budgets play a key role in that.”
Ó Gallachóir highlights that a climate neutrality objective by 2050 does not outline a pathway and examples the challenge in this by posing the question: “Do we look to a linear trajectory, or do we approach this in a different way?” When seeking an answer to such a question, the academic states that it is worth reflecting on the past. From 1990 Ireland’s emissions grew to a peak in 2005, correlating with significant economic growth. A 20 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions since 2005, while welcomed, cannot be credited to successful climate policy alone, when considering the effect of the economic recession and the Covid19 pandemic on emission reductions. Ó Gallachóir is quick to point out that
Figure 1: Illustrative decarbonisation trajectories to 2050
(illustra ve) MtCO 2
Early action
2020 2030 2040 2050
Linear Late action
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050
Each pathway above reaches the same 2050 goal of net-zero CO2 emissions, but in the late action pathway, cumulative emissions are double that of the early action pathway, leading to double the warming impact
some progress has been made, specifically pointing to success in greenhouse gas emission reduction in energy, which has removed some 12 MtCO2eq through things like renewable energy and energy efficiency.
“When we consider the pathway to 2050, it is very important in the context of our cumulative emissions. The pathway has a key impact in terms of the contribution to climate change because it is the cumulative emissions that we release into the atmosphere that influence the level of temperature rise.”
A discussion paper developed by MaREI (Figure 1) illustrates how alternative carbon budgets will deliver different pathways. All of the pathways illustrated reach carbon neutrality by 2050 but as Ó Gallachóir points out, each has very different implications for the temperature rise.
The Climate Action Bill calls for two different carbon budgets to be established in the period to 2030 and the Climate Change Advisory Committee (CCAC) is undertaking proposals on what these budgets will be.
Ó Gallachóir is a member of the carbon budgets committee set up by the CCAC. The Advisory Council is to advise on the first three of the fiveyearly carbon budgets, with the first two focussed on the specific 51 per cent greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2030.
Offering a context to the scale of this ambition over a 10-year period, the Director states that from 2018, no other country in the world has achieved a 51 per cent greenhouse gas reduction over a decade. Ireland’s 51 per cent reduction target compares to a 46 per cent reduction sought by the UK over the same period, an EU equivalent reduction of 41 per cent and a US ambition of 47 per cent. “Only Denmark is ahead with a 63 per cent emissions reduction target over this period,” he adds.
Ó Gallachóir states that a number of open questions exist in relation to the development of carbon budgets. The first and most critical open question is around whether carbon budgets to 2030 should target early action or delayed action. Additionally, some questions have been raised as to how 2018 should be the starting point for a baseline and whether land use, land use change and forestry should be included in these budgets. Finally, the academic poses a question around how to weigh up different topics which need to be taken into account such as climate science, economic competitiveness and climate justice.
The academic demonstrates (Figure 2) a linear trajectory approach to 2030 which would point to a cumulative 269 Mt CO2eq carbon budget one (2021 to 2025) and a 188 Mt CO2eq reduction in carbon budget two (2026 to 2030). “It might be appropriate to consider a linear trajectory because the EU policy framework that we also need to be mindful of effectively has a linear carbon budget for non-ETS emissions for the period to 2030,” he adds.
Highlighting the difference in the potential approaches, the Director says: “Clearly, if we are focussing on the emission contribution to temperature change, early intervention would be the best pathway. However, if we are thinking about distributional effects, a just transition in an Irish context and the impact on jobs and economic competitiveness on requirements for people to change so quickly, then the steer would be more towards a delayed trajectory.” Concluding, Ó Gallachóir states that carbon budgets are key to determining
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eq) GWP100 Greenhouse gas emissions (Mt CO 2
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2 eq ) GWP100 Greenhouse gas emissions (Mt CO
Figure 3: Different pathways = Different budgets 2020-2030
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Early action Linear Delayed action
the pathway to 51 per cent MtCO2eq by 2030 and so many open questions remain under consideration by the CCAC.
“Achievability depends also on sectoral allocations, effective policies and measures, and societal participation,” he states. “However, I believe that the definition of achievability has changed in light of our experience with the pandemic. We have shown in the last year that we can do things differently and this gives cause for hope. That being said, it does not take away from the scale of the challenge and the fact that there are a range of carbon budget pathways that we need to make decisions on.”
Title Period Early action Linear Delayed action
CB1
CB2
CB1+2 2021-2025 239
2026-2030 168
2021-2030 407 269
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457 299
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Irish ports hold the key to unlocking our natural offshore wind resource
The great economic and social challenge of our age is to decouple economic growth from growth in carbon emissions. For most of the past century, economic growth and prosperity were directly linked to increasing carbon emissions. The results of this were laid bare in the recent UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report which warned humanity of the threat to our very existence, writes Conor O’Dowd, CEO, Galway Harbour Company.
With such a stark outlook before us, it is incumbent on us more than ever as an industry to develop workable solutions. Wind power and, in particular, offshore wind power, has the potential to be a key driver of economic growth without increasing carbon emissions. Even prior to the pandemic, many governments around the globe had already identified wind power as the cornerstone of the global economic recovery. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that, by 2040, onshore and offshore wind will be the main sources of electricity generation while they also predict that global offshore capacity may increase 15-fold over the next two decades. Offshore wind off Ireland’s Atlantic Coast represents a natural energy resource with an economic potential akin to the fossil fuel reserves of the Middle East. With this resource on its doorstep, Ireland has an incredible opportunity to lead out in the production of a clean, renewable energy source for the island and to export surplus energy to our European partners. This is a once-in-ageneration opportunity which will enable the west of Ireland to retain its young people in productive employment locally, position itself as a leader in the green economy for foreign direct investment and provide a much-needed regional rebalancing of Irish economic activity.
Irish ports hold the key to unlocking this vast economic potential. Ports will play a key role in providing the infrastructure for the offshore wind sector and are central to the development of this resource. Investment in and prioritisation of port infrastructure will assist in creating enterprise zones along the Atlantic coast where related industry can be located.
These enterprise zones could be located in the main ports providing maintenance bases for the wind energy sector and also serving as enterprise hubs for our third level institutions, research bodies, indigenous companies and FDI. Such an approach is likely to maximise supply chain opportunities for Ireland and ensure that the economic benefits arising from this opportunity are retained locally.
As we enter a new economic frontier in the post-Covid era, Ireland needs to grasp the opportunity to harness our natural resources to drive economic growth and be a global leader in the offshore renewable energy sector. Irish ports and their surrounding business communities can play a key role in developing the incredible natural resource of recurring natural wind off our Atlantic coast. The west of Ireland can lead the way on the green economy; unlocking the huge potential of our ports is the first step.
E: codowd@theportofgalway.com W: www.theportofgalway.com
The Raheenleagh wind farm site is located in County Wicklow approximately 8 km west of Arklow. The project involves the installation of 11 Siemens turbines and associated civil works including a 16km underground cable from the site at Croghan Mountain to Arklow substation.
We have all seen the impact that human activity is having on our planet. ESB recognises that the time for action is now.
It is universally accepted that electricity has a critical role to play in tackling climate change, and ESB is committed to a future powered by clean, reliable and affordable electricity.
This year has seen significant milestones in ESB’s low carbon journey as it continues to grow its renewable energy portfolio and invest in a wide range of technologies and solutions to meet its net-zero ambition by 2050.
Low carbon innovation
The first of these milestones was announced in April, as ESB works to reduce the carbon intensity of its generation mix and shape the future of the energy system was outlined with Green Atlantic@Moneypoint. Under the programme, and in line with the Government’s ambitious emissions reduction targets, ESB’s Moneypoint site in County Clare will be transformed into a green energy hub, helping Ireland to become a leader in sustainable energy production.
This multi-billion-euro investment programme will create hundreds of jobs for surrounding communities over the next decade. It includes plans for a floating offshore wind farm of 1,400MW that will be developed off the coast of counties Clare and Kerry in two phases by ESB and joint venture partners, Equinor. Once complete, the wind farm will be capable of powering more than 1.6 million Irish homes.
Another significant development at Moneypoint will be the construction of a Synchronous Compensator which will help to manage grid stability, and in turn, enable higher volumes of renewable generation on the system. This will serve to reduce carbon emissions arising from both transmission operations and system constraints. The project started in August of this year following the appointment of Siemens Energy to carry out construction and engineering works.
Latest technology
ESB’s renewable energy focus means that it is constantly evolving, innovating and harnessing the resources of the entire organisation to make the transition to clean, low carbon electricity a reality.
One significant area of innovation is around the development of large-scale infrastructure to produce green hydrogen from renewable sources. This clean, zero-carbon fuel will support the decarbonisation of the energy system and transform industries where direct electrification is not feasible such as heavy transport, shipping, industrial processes and backup power generation.
ESB’s plans include a green hydrogen production, storage and generation facility at Moneypoint towards the end of the decade. In recent months, ESB announced that it has partnered with dCarbonX on the assessment and development of Irish offshore green hydrogen subsurface storage. This covers all areas that are adjacent to ESB’s existing and planned future infrastructure and will support the creation of a proposed new ‘Green
Hydrogen Valley’ centred around the Poolbeg peninsula in Dublin.
In August, the two companies launched Green Hydrogen@Kinsale, an integrated project to develop large-scale storage for green hydrogen off the coast of County Cork that could have the potential to store up to 3 TWh of green hydrogen and hydrogen carriers – the equivalent of approximately 10 per cent of current Irish annual electricity consumption.
The partnership represents a milestone in Ireland’s emerging hydrogen economy, and an exciting development in ESB’s sustainable energy transition.
The drive to renewables
These latest developments are taking place alongside other initiatives by ESB to support the electrification of the transport and heating sectors, including a major project to upgrade and enhance the public charging infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs) across Ireland. This project supports the Government target to significantly grow the number of EVs on Irish roads to almost one million by 2030.
In July, a new eight-bay charging hub was opened at Junction 14 Mayfield on the M7, marking the latest development in ESB’s €20 million infrastructure investment programme, supported by the Government’s Climate Action Fund (CAF).
The high-power charging hub is capable of providing 100km of charge in as little as six minutes.
In addition, more than 200 22kW standard chargers were upgraded across Ireland in the first half of the year, with 21 standard chargers upgraded to 50kW fast chargers at key locations. These fast chargers enable drivers to get an 80 per cent charge in less than 30 minutes.
The number of charge points available for public charging across the island of Ireland, currently totalling 1,800, is expected to increase as government supports for local authorities are introduced and other players enter Ireland’s growing market, one that will play a crucial role in reducing emissions.
Artist's impression of the new Moneypoint Renewable Energy Hub in County Clare.
We all must play our part
While huge progress has been made over the past decade in preparing Ireland’s electricity system for a new, low carbon future, much of this work is being completed within the industry and out of sight of customers. We are now entering a new phase of the transition where customers will have a key role to play, not only by adopting new technologies but also by moderating their use of electricity to help make the system more efficient. New innovations and solutions are emerging all the time, but technology is just part of the answer. A cultural and behavioural shift is needed to tackle climate change, which means that choices for customers need to be simple, compelling and make financial sense.
ESB’s investment in some of the latest technologies to support the transition to renewable energy is all taking place while it continues to expand its onshore and offshore wind portfolio.
Simple, intuitive products and services that offer convenience, cost-savings and comfort will encourage customers to embrace change and take on a full and active role in the energy system. ESB is committed to helping customers navigate the changes ahead by developing customer-centric solutions that meet their needs.
“Although ambitious, the transition to zero-carbon electricity and the electrification of society is achievable if we all play our part, but it requires an informed, engaged public that has the opportunity to deliver real change. That is where we come in, by enabling the latest innovation and technology to address the challenges we all face. By working collaboratively, we can effect fundamental social change and leave a really positive legacy for future generations as we transition to a renewable energy future,” says Peter O’Shea, Head of Corporate and Regulatory Affairs at ESB.
Find out how ESB’s renewable energy focus is creating a brighter future for all at esb.ie/brighter-future
#esbbrighterfuture
Developing Ireland’s hydrogen potential
Ireland will require a different roadmap from that of its neighbouring countries given the absence of an industrial use for hydrogen, explains NUI Galway’s Rory Monaghan.
While the development of hydrogen supply projects in Ireland is welcome, failure to incentivise the progression of demand will inevitably force delays in hydrogen production, explains Monaghan.
The academic, who is a Senior Lecturer of Energy Systems Engineering and leads the Energy Research Centre in NUI Galway’s Ryan Institute, highlights that associated with the European Union’s move to make hydrogen a central part of its decarbonisation plans out to 2050, a number of member states have also published their hydrogen strategies in 2021 and there is a clear momentum across Europe.
However, Monaghan stresses that throughout the majority of these strategies, the first step is for renewable hydrogen to replace fossil-generated (grey) hydrogen.
“Research across Europe shows that hydrogen is making its mark in the industrial sector, where grey hydrogen is already in use and where there is an existing demand,” he states.
The challenge for Ireland is that, unlike its neighbouring countries, that industrial demand is minimal.
Setting the context for the current momentum in hydrogen supply and demand across Europe, Monaghan is pleased that in a few short years the conversation has moved from explaining the potential uses of hydrogen to one of the specific challenges and opportunities for the role of hydrogen in Ireland’s future energy system.
Hydrogen’s ability to be transported over long distances, its potential as a storage medium and the fact that it can be used in a range of different end-use sectors are clear benefits, however, as Monaghan points out, currently, most potential end-use sectors are not using hydrogen and the vast bulk of hydrogen that is being used is as an industrial feedstock, and is not coming from renewables.
In July 2020, the EU published its Energy System Integration Strategy, setting out four over-arching priorities of how the energy system will be decarbonised. Alongside efficiency, circularity and direct renewable electrification, the Strategy listed ‘clean fuels for hard to abate sectors’ as a priority, relating to hydrogen, biofuels and carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Hydrogen Strategy
Subsequently, the EU Commission published its Hydrogen Strategy, mapping the development of 40GW worth of electrolysis capacity within the EU and a further 40GW in North Africa and the former Soviet Union (for import), by 2030.
Monaghan estimates that Europe needs to avoid future emissions of around one billion tonnes of CO2eq in 2050 in addition to its projected CO2 emissions reductions if it is to play its part in meeting the global aim of keeping warming to 1-2oC. Hydrogen can help close 50 per cent of that gap, spread across a number of key sectors including, but not limited to, transportation, as industrial feedstock and through industrial heat.
By 2024, there is an aim to have 6GW (similar to Ireland’s total maximum electrical demand) of renewable hydrogen electrolysers installed across the EU, and the production of up to one million tonnes of renewable hydrogen.
Falling equipment costs, the availability of cheap renewable power, strong government supports (especially in countries around the North Sea) for promoting hydrogen and existing largescale demand for grey hydrogen, are driving current momentum across Europe but many large-scale projects remain in the planning or construction phase, with the 6MW at Austria’s H2Future remaining as the world’s largest green hydrogen facility.
Monaghan reemphasises that in many of the projects either operational or in construction across Europe, the demand is coming from industrial sectors, where there is an existing usage of grey hydrogen.
Ireland
The International Energy Agency recently studied the prospects for hydrogen in north-western Europe, focusing on Ireland’s seven neighbouring countries. The study estimated consumption of a combined 6.3 million tonnes per year of hydrogen, almost all from natural gas and it is expected that green hydrogen will replace a large portion of this between 2025-2030.
By comparison, Ireland currently consumes only 2,000 tonnes per year, roughly equivalent to full-year production from a 12MW electrolyser.
“We are seeing a lot of development of hydrogen supply projects in Ireland but we are not seeing huge developments in hydrogen demand,” states Monaghan. “That is starting to change slightly, particularly in the transportation sector, with recent Bus Éireann and Dublin Bus fuel cell bus trials, but we do not currently have that base of industrial use of hydrogen that other EU countries are relying on. Our roadmap is going to need to be different.”
Posing the question as to how Ireland can increase the demand for hydrogen, Monaghan points to an initial need for this to be stimulated by government. Highlighting evidence of the formation of a ‘chicken and egg’ scenario, whereby supply projects will start to experience delays in getting off the ground without the availability of offtakers, Monaghan suggests a number of possibilities which could change this.
The first is the co-funding for trial and purchase of hydrogen buses, trains and trucks, given the likelihood that transport is going to the Ireland’s first major mover in relation to green hydrogen adoption. Secondly, the academic says that co-funding for the deployment of hydrogen filling stations for these vehicles has been recognised as highly successful in Switzerland, especially in relation to HGVs, and such a model could be mirrored in Ireland.
A further enabler, and one which has been adopted by the UK, is incentivising or co-funding of hydrogen hubs and valleys, clustering suppliers and users to reduce risk and driving economies of scale in the hydrogen value chain. Another approach in the UK, which could be transferable, is the inclusion of hydrogen in renewable transport fuel supports.
Away from transport, Monaghan believes that future hydrogen development could benefit from a detailed analysis on the full system costs and emissions saving of heat decarbonisation in the built environment, with a pointed question of ‘what is the role of hydrogen in the residential gas grid?’.
The Government has committed to the role out of some 600,000 heat pumps by 2030 but as Monaghan points out, it is not yet clear what role the gas grid, potentially carrying hydrogen, has in this. The question of residential heating matters more in Ireland due to that sector’s outsized importance relative to other countries.
“In its sixth Carbon Budget, the UK Climate Change Committee has found that the most cost-effective full decarbonisation route for residential heating is predominantly via heat pumps, but with an appreciable amount of hydrogen. This hydrogen provides the heating system with storage capacity that is harder to achieve to in all-electric scenario. Such an assessment has yet to be done in Ireland but I believe there are some important findings to be made,” he says.
Concluding: “If we base our heat policy on completely pushing hydrogen to the side, we create the potential for a lot of inflexibility to be built into our energy system.”
Monaghan is a co-leader of a recently announced three-year collaborative industry-academic project, HyLIGHT, which is seeking to inform a comprehensive plan for hydrogen deployment at scale in Ireland. HyLIGHT is co-funded by a consortium of 25 partner organisations organisations from across the emerging hydrogen value chain and Science Foundation Ireland (SFI) through MaREI, the SFI Research Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine.
Dr Rory Monaghan is the Director of the Energy Systems Engineering Programme at NUI Galway, Energy Research Centre Lead in the NUI Galway Ryan Institute, and a Funded Investigator in MaREI, the SFI Research Centre for Energy Climate and Marine.
The path to net-zero heating and cooling in Ireland
The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland’s (SEAI) Head of Data and Insights, Jim Scheer, discusses the role of the organisation’s comprehensive National Heat Study in addressing the national challenge of decarbonising energy for heating and cooling.
Decarbonising the energy used for heating and cooling is a very significant challenge facing Ireland in the coming decade. Heat energy currently accounts for 38 per cent of final energy consumption in Ireland with oil, gas and solid fuels still the primary sources. It causes over 14 MtCO2 emissions, or nearly a quarter of total national greenhouse gas emission annually. These must be at least halved by 2030, and eventually reach net zero.
Our high carbon, fossil fuel-based economy
Almost 450,000 householders have upgraded their homes and thousands of businesses have made inroads on strategic energy management and technology change to renewables. Yet still net emission have risen by over one million tonnes (2 per cent per annum) over the last five years. We are still overly reliant on fossil fuels for heating, with less than 7 per cent of heat energy coming from renewable sources.
From a policy perspective, we have entered the age of the accountant. Carbon budgets, or annual maxima of greenhouse gas emissions will soon be set here in Ireland, matching policy ambition to the science. The challenge is to reverse the annual growth in heat emissions to a net 7 per cent reduction or better, together with actions in other sectors.
A net-zero pathway for heat
The upcoming SEAI National Heat Study will be the most comprehensive assessment of heating and cooling use in Ireland ever undertaken. It will provide detailed understanding of the sectors in which we use heat, the fuels we use to supply that heat and the solutions available to us to decarbonise our heat use. The study will include analysis of the costs of these solutions, provide insights as to how we can deliver them and how the transition may impact the people and businesses that use heat, namely, all of us. It will illustrate anticipated progress to 2030 and highlight areas where more work is needed to reach the relevant targets.
Early insights are highlighting particularly challenging areas when it comes to decarbonising heating and cooling. The fact that heat use is deeply embedded in our daily lives, across all sectors, makes the challenge much more than simple technology transition.
Households and buildings
Fossil fuels used to heat our homes cause 6.8 million tonnes of CO2 emissions annually, almost half of our heating related emissions. Oil boilers are still the most common central heating type in Ireland, heating around 700,000 homes. These cause 3.5 million tonnes of CO2 emissions annually, which is over half of all CO2 emissions from home heating. This highlights the need for solutions in highcarbon one-off, rural dwellings.
Around 1.5 million tonnes CO2 emissions arise from using coal and peat for home heating – just under a quarter of the whole sector. This is around the same level of emissions for heating in the entire commercial sector, making it a critical issue to address –made difficult perhaps by our historic ties to these fuels. Decarbonisation of all homes will require the eventual elimination of all oil boilers for home heating, the end of burning solid fuels like coal and peat for home heating and alternatives for fossil gas heated homes. And the faster the better.
Whilst energy efficiency remains a top priority for the sector, revised estimates for district heating show greater potential. Latest estimates indicate that it is technically feasible for around half of heat demand in all buildings (residential, commercial and public) to be supplied by renewable and waste heat through district heating networks. Important considerations for early delivery of district heating include the development of a regulatory framework to support the emergence of this heat market.
The upcoming study also gives deeper consideration to heat pumps for homes that are unlikely to ever be connected to a district heating network, for example
those still heated with oil. The study also looks at the longer-term potential for hydrogen and biogas. The solutions required provide examples of necessary infrastructure deployment to ultimately eliminate fossil fuel use. The associated activity will create significant jobs in the sector and highlights the need for skills development in energy efficiency construction, electrical and plumbing trades, and larger infrastructure establishment.
Industry
Industry has the second largest share of CO2 emissions from fuel used for heat, accounting for one third or 4.6 million tonnes CO2 per year. Emissions in the sector have been largely constant since 2009. 89 per cent of the energy used for heating in the sector is from fossil fuels. It will be important to electrify heating in many circumstances and to consider the potential for bioenergy, hydrogen, carbon capture use and storage (CCUS) and other options to eliminate carbon emissions.
Around 70 large industrial sites within the EU emission trading scheme (ETS) account for approximately 87 per cent of the energy related CO2 emissions from the sector. Thus, fewer end-users in this sector hold the keys to large savings. Based on wide ranging consultation undertaken by SEAI, significant opportunities exist in some sectors to electrify processes – switching direct fossil fuel use to higher renewable electricity. Fuel switching to biomethane is also being considered to decarbonise some sectors, however resource availability, impacts on agricultural emissions, and feedstock sustainability are potential limiting factors.
Commercial and public sectors
Commercial and public services are responsible for almost one fifth of heating related CO2 emissions, or 2.5 MtCO2, and three quarters of cooling related CO2 emissions, or 1.0 MtCO2 per year. The majority of emissions from direct fossil fuel use of oil and gas come from, hotels (25 per cent), healthcare (24 per cent), educational facilities (22 per cent), and restaurants / pubs (12 per cent). A further 0.67 MtCO2 results from electrically sourced heating and cooling across the commercial and public sectors.
The particular challenges for the public sector will include eliminating oil use in Ireland’s schools and reducing emissions in healthcare, given the challenges of retrofitting whilst ensuring continuity and growth of services. In the commercial sector the incentives to improve buildings must impact a sector with high rates of leased assets and highly diverse business and construction types. Achieving decarbonisation in the sector will require end-to-end support models, availability of funding and Board level commitment. If action is not generated from within the sector, regulatory approaches will need to be prioritised to cause the necessary actions.
Annual heating emissions (thousand tonnes of CO2) in Industry, split by subsector and fuel
Total annual emissions (ktCO2/annum) from fuel use for heating by Commercial and Public* subsector. (*Education, Healthcare and Office (public)
Beyond technology change
With 85 per cent of energy for heat coming from fossil fuels, the need for massive technology change is clear. That alone will not be enough though. The path to net zero will have to be supported by parallel efforts to decarbonise the electricity grid, electrify heating demands, establish regulatory and market supports for district heating networks, for example. We will need to consider areas where we can sustain immediate emission reductions, like we did in transport over the Covid lockdown period. And we will need to look for alternatives to ‘highcarbon’ economy, where solutions to decarbonise in line with the net 7 per cent reduction pathway can’t be found in specific sectors. All must play their part.
A broader policy package is under development. Essential government supports in the form of grants, tax incentives and supports for financing are in the process of being re-designed to support more householders to get off fossil fuels, and a national campaign promoting the new supports for households to upgrade will get underway in early Autumn. New supports for business are being implemented (see www.seai.ie for the latest), among many other supporting actions, as further detailed in the Climate Action Plan. It is hoped that this multi-pronged approach, with government, businesses, individual householders, and communities working together will drive the societal change necessary.
SEAI will be publishing a series of technical reports and a final concluding report that brings it all together, with all reports expected to be released before the end of the year. Stay tuned to www.seai.ie for details.
Living within carbon budgets
Upcoming carbon budgets are going to change the game when it comes to eliminating fossil fuels from our energy system, explains Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) Chief Executive William Walsh.
We have worked for many years at SEAI with householders, business, and large industry to promote the benefits of sustainable energy. The Government has to date supported almost 450,000 households and thousands of businesses to reduce or replace fossil fuel usage. The Government has supported a world leading level of renewables on our electricity grid and done much to support sustainable energy research. Unfortunately, it hasn’t been enough. Aside from the impact of Covid in 2020, net emissions from energy use continue to rise.
SEAI welcomes the alignment of targets with the science. A minimum 7 per cent per annum net reduction of emissions gives us a chance of making Ireland’s fair contribution to the Paris Agreement. But achieving the goal, every year, will require a truly national effort, elevating climate action to our number one priority. To succeed, climate action needs to move from something we do to fundamentally how we do things.
The technology change required is massive. We need a 10-fold increase in the rate and depth of building energy upgrades across residential and nonresidential buildings. We need to ramp up electric vehicle ownership. And we need to deploy renewable electricity on our grid at around four times the historic rates. Unfortunately, given delayed climate action to date, and our reliance on imported fossil fuels for our energy needs (87 per cent fossil in 2020), even this level of scaling up won’t be enough on its own.
In a carbon budget constrained economy, a range of further considerations are necessary. First, we must consider where we can reduce our fossil fuel use immediately. Lessons exist in our recent experience with the Covid pandemic. Transport emissions dipped by around four million tonnes in 2020 due to reduced travel. This was unwelcomed for many given its link to unemployment. But for others working from home or taking less overseas flights worked well, and reduced emissions. We need to address the likely increase in home heating. But this remains a case in point of the need to cut net emissions, fast.
Investment in cycling and walking infrastructure during the car transport lull offer a strong example of providing alternatives to fossil fuel-based car travel that have ‘stuck’ for many consumers, representing the type of behaviour change to be encouraged. So many of the changes bring us closer to meeting our climate challenge, while bringing added health and lifestyle benefits.
We must talk too of energy sufficiency. Where efficiency is doing the same activity with less energy, sufficiency is simply about doing less. This is a more difficult discussion. But when carbon budgets bite, we may have to consider everyday changes such as how often to use the washing machine day, or where can we use less hot water.
Scaling successful projects quickly is something that SEAI has done for many years. Most of our government funded schemes started as trials. We now have comprehensive offerings supporting hundreds of communities around the country to act together. We host business networks sharing experience and ‘wins’ on energy efficiency and renewables. We have witnessed the power of CEO leadership in business who are tackling the issue seriously – hitting business goals and decarbonising simultaneously. More of this cooperation is essential.
Beyond these actions, we need to consider what ‘high carbon economy’ can we substitute out. For example, could we build more with timber and less with cement. With carbon budgets, it doesn’t work to simply make the least carbon intense product of either A or B. The net emission from making or using that product are what count. Company responsibility must be taken at the net emission level. That may mean finding alternatives until such time as high carbon sectors can produce in a way that is compatible with carbon budgets, climate science and a healthy future for next generations.
All activity in our energy transition is in the good economy, providing thousands of jobs. Any business looking for solutions will need support. Any citizen keen to act needs support. We are inviting all interested parties to contact SEAI as a first port of call on action to eliminate fossil fuels from our energy system. Nothing short of a societal movement will see us living within carbon budgets, living lives that are compatible with our planet. We are here to help.
T: +353 01 8082 100 E: info@seai.ie W: www.seai.ie
Credit: Science in HD
70 by 30: Renewable electricity project pipeline
Northern Ireland has the potential to almost double its renewable electricity generation in the coming years based on projects already in the development pipeline but the majority of generation capacity is still awaiting construction.
The speed at which renewable electricity generation projects in Northern Ireland pass through the pipeline is significant when considering the Department for the Economy’s ambitious target of 70 per cent electricity generation from renewables by 2030.
Northern Ireland has a potential renewable electricity pipeline capacity of over 1,208MW, including battery storage, according to the UK’s Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) database but only 165MW of that capacity had commenced construction by June 2020.
By comparison, 509MW of generation was awaiting the construction phase,
where a site has already had planning permission accepted. To offer a context to what the scale of future permitted generation might look like, the 165MW of generation under construction is made up of five sites, ranging in technologies from onshore wind, energy from waste and battery storage.
According to SONI, Northern Ireland has a maximum export capacity of 3,031MW, around 40 per cent of which is installed across renewable electricity sites. Northern Ireland’s two large scale renewable sites are connected to the transmission system, with remaining renewable sites connected to the distribution network.
NIE Networks puts connected generation of renewable technologies at 1,684MW, the majority of which (76 per cent) comes from onshore wind, with solar PV (268MW) a distant second. An insight into the length of time it can take a project to progress through the pipeline from seeking planning approval to eventual generation can be seen by looking at the year 2017, recorded as the largest increase in additional capacity in any given year. Sites commissioned in 2017 generally started construction at least two years prior to generation and some sites’ planning approval dated back to 2007.
This means that even the 165MW of generation sites under construction will likely not feed into Northern Ireland’s renewable generation for a number of years. Additionally, the Department for
the Economy has flagged that of the potential 509MW generation on consented sites which have not begun construction, delay of a further two years would see 212MW of capacity lost due to planning permission timeframes, 17.5 per cent of potential capacity in Northern Ireland’s renewable electricity pipeline.
In terms of location, the majority of Northern Ireland’s current operational capacity is located in the North West, with County Tyrone contributing the largest installed renewable capacity at around 553MW. The majority of this capacity comes from onshore wind and that technology is set to continue to dominate future renewable generation. However, analysis of those sites in the construction phases shows the emergence of greater levels of alternative technologies. A combined 102MW of solar PV generation at three sites is awaiting construction, while planning permission has been granted for Northern Ireland’s largest (39.5MW) solar PV site in County Antrim. Additionally, four storage facilities, with around 184MW of storage potential, exist in the renewable electricity project pipeline. Pipeline capacity includes one marine energy technology. Fair Head tidal site is currently in the planning system for a 100MW development.
Looking to the pipeline, Causeway Coast and Glens Borough Council has the largest value of capacity with consented planning permission (141MW), followed closely by Fermanagh and Omagh District Council (129MW). Mid Ulster District Council has significant potential, as it represents 42 per cent of total planning applications currently in the system.
Potential pipeline capacity (MW)
Total pipeline 1208
17.5%
Application submitted 533
212MW of a 1,208MW total pipeline will potentially be lost if construction is stalled for another two years due to planning permission timeframes
Awaiting construction
Under construction 509
165
BEIS Renewable Energy Planning Database
Decarbonisation beyond renewable targets
Green hydrogen is one of the technologies that is predicted to make a major contribution to decarbonising the power sector
The acceleration of the decarbonisation of Ireland’s energy system presents not only environmental benefits but could stimulate economic activity to underpin future growth, writes Tomás Murray, KPMG Ireland’s Corporate Finance Director.
Ireland has set an ambitious target that 70 per cent of all electricity required in the country is to be provided from renewable sources by 2030. The move towards renewable electricity comes at a time when the demand for electricity is set to rise, as a result of the electrification of heat and transport and the emergence of Ireland as an attractive location for data centres targeting a global market. There was strong interest from renewables developers in last year’s RESS auctions and the draft Maritime Area Planning Bill paves the way for an offshore wind industry of scale, so there are many indicators to suggest Ireland is making progress towards this target.
The primary policy objective of this renewable target is the decarbonisation of Ireland’s power generation industry in line with the country’s climate change mitigation programme, though renewable energy has other environmental benefits over thermal generation such as coal, which emits a range of harmful pollutants such as NOX and SO2 into the atmosphere. Since renewable generators are not dependent on fuel they also provide a measure of energy security for a country that does not have significant fossil fuel reserves.
Challenges of variable output
Despite the many benefits of renewable energy, the predominant technologies (solar and wind) are dependent upon the prevailing weather, and their output, while increasingly predictable, is not constant. Before the end of the decade, offshore wind projects are expected to reach load factors of 50 per cent, but that still leaves a 50 per cent shortfall. The output of wind and solar generation in Ireland is negatively correlated so the portfolio effect of combining these technologies mitigates some of the inherent variability; this alone is insufficient to meet the needs of customers that have come to expect uninterrupted access to power, as and when they require it.
‘Dunkelflaute’ is a composite word in the German tradition, stemming from ‘dunkelheit’ (darkness) and ‘windflaute’ (calm wind), referring to sustained periods where the weather is both calm and dark. During hours of low solar and wind, the system’s demand is met primarily through the combustion of natural gas and coal. Ultimately, Ireland has a target to be net zero in terms of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and this will inevitably mean a fully decarbonised power system. The stability of the system as it is currently configured cannot rely upon wind and solar alone and while there is widespread support for the 70 per cent renewable electricity targets (and rightly so), there is an emerging discussion regarding both the decarbonised technologies and policies required to bridge the gap.
Technologies
Battery
Lithium-Ion battery (also seen in mobile phones and electric cars) is the most commonly deployed energy storage technology on power systems today. Bloomberg Green report that 3,500MW were deployed by utilities across the globe in 2020 and that figure is expected to treble by 2023. Growth in battery demand is a consequence of falling costs and the system’s increasing need for energy sources that can be called upon at short notice. Typically, these installations hold a store of energy that can last for 0.5 to four hours; this makes them highly effective at smoothing within-day variations, but insufficient to meet the requirements of a Dunkelflaute event.
The search for low cost and long duration batteries is well underway. Form-Energy is a venture-backed research company based in Boston that has developed what they refer to as an ‘iron-air’ battery system, optimised to store power for up to five-days at relatively low cost. While developments such as this are promising, they have yet to reach commercial viability, so the application of batteries is likely to remain limited to short-term balancing for the next decade or so at least.
Green hydrogen
The term ‘green hydrogen’ refers to the production of H2 through the electrolysis of water which is powered by renewable energy. Green hydrogen is gaining traction in the UK and across Europe as an energy vector with the potential to displace natural gas in conventional applications. Green hydrogen is increasingly seen as a means to generate high temperature heat for large industrial processes, hence significant research is being carried out in countries with large manufacturing bases. There are already demonstration projects being developed using modified gas engines designed to run on hydrogen. In the near-term, cost is likely to be a barrier. Research carried out by MaREI as part of the EirWind project estimated that production costs of €150/MWh are possible for a large-scale electrolyser coupled with a windfarm, which is approximately three times the current cost of natural gas (140p/therm). CCUS
Carbon Capture and Underground Storage (CCUS) is the process of combusting a fossil fuel and gathering the associated GHG emissions before they enter the atmosphere. The captured emissions are then pumped into an underground location. This technology has been researched for a number of years but there is a shortage of precedent projects. The Northern Lights is a carbon capture and storage project off the coast of Norway backed by Equinor, Shell, and Total and it is projected to be capable of accepting 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per annum.
Figures shared by the project sponsors indicate that a storage cost in excess of $80/tonne could be required to make the project viable. The International Energy Agency has estimated that the cost of capturing CO2 could range from $4080/tonne in power generation applications. The combined costs suggest that commercial viability for decarbonised power through CCUS would require carbon prices in excess of €100-135/tonne, which is certainly higher than the current €60/tonne prices seen today, though not unimaginable.
Nuclear power
A somewhat more familiar, though radical, technology option is nuclear. The French power system has a significant installed base of nuclear generation. This is the reason that despite renewables providing only 20 per cent of electricity, the carbon intensity of the power grid is approximately one-sixth of the carbon intensity of the Irish system. Despite much promise however, nuclear power has not seen any appreciable reduction in costs over recent decades and safety concerns linger.
Hinkley C, the first new nuclear project to be commissioned in the UK in decades, will receive a governmentguaranteed price of £106/MWh for 25years. The UK Government concluded that the contract represented good value, although it should not automatically be assumed that the costs would be the same in an Irish context, where this price would be expensive but not outlandish.
Nuclear plants, however, require economies of scale and a 3.6GW project (such as Hinkley C), while providing helpful generation capacity would pose a significant single-point-of-failure risk to the Irish system if it were required to shut down at short notice. Furthermore, Ireland currently lacks the institutional infrastructure necessary to oversee the safe operation of such an industry and the costs of creating this would be significant. That said, while it is far from certain that nuclear is the best option for decarbonising Ireland’s power supply, it is worthy of debate and being included in the range of options being considered to support Ireland’s response to the climate challenge.
Policy changes
While there are many uncertainties regarding the optimal technology mix to counter-balance the inherent variability of renewable energy, the picture is becoming clearer in other respects. The cost to the system of providing power, particularly carbon-free power at times when renewables are unavailable, is going to be significantly more expensive. While the wholesale electricity market price may reflect this cost, this is only a portion of the overall cost paid by both residential and commercial customers. There is significant scope to reshape other charges (such as capacity charges) to better reflect the true costs. Furthermore, an emerging category of load (hydrogen electrolysers, electric cars and heat pumps) is exceptionally well-suited to responding intelligently to price signals. Transmission and distribution charges, as currently configured, give very limited scarcity signals—reform of these mechanisms and a move towards a more dynamic model would ultimately lower the cost for all consumers, particularly as grid capacity becomes strained.
Opportunity for Ireland
There is a chance for Ireland to develop an integrated energy policy that seeks to accelerate the journey towards a fully decarbonised power supply, not just the periods when renewable power is available. Full and rapid decarbonisation is fully consistent with a 70 per cent renewable energy target by 2030 and critically, it is consistent with continued economic development and not a reductive choice between growth and the environment. Planning the full decarbonisation of the power system needs careful consideration of all options, but the ultimate prize is an energy system that is both exemplary from an environmental perspective and attractive to the economic activity that can underpin future growth.
E: tomas.murray@kpmg.ie W: www.kpmg.ie
