See the unforeseen.
From planning onwards, P1™ can be utilised to monitor and improve well construction performance and to evaluate options in the event of a problem. The software accounts for the fact that risks in well design are not intuitive, and that sometimes the lowest cost option may carry the greatest business risk. P1™ adds value and knowledge throughout the project management process, from project selection, conceptual design right through to programme execution. P1™ has been developed to improve well construction
viewed as a range of likely outcomes. The system allows
performance. The use of the software and the associated
informed decisions to be made on all aspects of planning,
procedures ensure that all risks and opportunities can be
from the conceptual phase right through to spud and
examined thoroughly in the design phase, with well costs
during operations.
“Built by well construction engineers, for well construction engineers, P1™ probability software is designed to reduce risk and maximise performance.” Chris Ferrier, Director.
All’s well that starts well P1™ provides a rigorous, standardised and systematic
The P1™ tool and the complete process encompassing
approach to many of the key elements of successful
its use provide the basis for Performance Management
well construction such as:
including:
• Probabilistic time estimating
• Operational look-ahead
• Probabilistic cost estimating
• Phase-by-phase analysis of Actual vs. Planned
• Risk quantification and mitigation
performance (Benchmarking)
• Statistically credible option selection
• Technical limit approach
• Mechanism to provide clear communication with all
• Data Quality and Analysis.
stakeholders • Forecasting time and cost outcomes • Standardisation across wells, projects and business units.
4 out of the top 6 leading oil companies use P1™ Companies using the tool also derive the following benefits:
Improved cross functional communication – Improved level of team work through the participation of
Formalised risk management process with greater
all stakeholders in the building of the models. As the risks
understanding of risk -
are identified and analysed, specific, engineered mitigation
Well engineers benefit from a process that allows them to
measures or contingency plans can be designed.
compare options on an objective basis, rather than relying
Informed decision making –
on instinct which is often flawed. Increased understanding
Use of P1™ facilitates a more informed basis for discussion
of project risk will maximise chances of successful project
and choosing between options.
completion .
Packed with decision making features • Operational Model – The well plan is broken down into a series of operational phases and sub-divided into events. • Cost Model – All the costs that relate to the well being
and completion costs and displays the AFE in the project currency. • Cumulative Probability – curve for time/cost – Using
planned are captured. Costs can be one of 3 types: Day
the results of Monte Carlo simulation, P1™ generates
Rate, Cost per Unit or Lump Sum. The costs are assigned
cumulative probability charts for both time and cost.
to individual or a range of phases
These charts display a range of times or costs plotted
• Contingency/Project Risks – P1™ allows contingency events to be entered. Contingencies can be applied to
against the likelihood of occurrence from P0 – P100 • Phase duration charts – Phase duration charts allow the
individual or a group of phases. Such contingencies might
team to indentify the phase(s) that have high inherent risk.
be Wait on Weather (WOW)
By focusing attention and effort to these areas risk can be
• Process Flow Map (PFM) – The Process Flow Map provides a visual representation of the sequence of events that make up the P1™ model • Multiple currencies – P1™ supports multiple currencies which allows costs to be entered in a native currency before converting and reporting on a project currency • Probabilistic Cost Estimate – Using the information entered in the Cost Model, P1™ can generate a
mitigated, reduced or even eliminated • Tracking – By recording the actual duration of an event, analysis can be performed on the model to compare Planned versus Actual performance. It can highlight relative planning performance, how any scope change impacted the project or highlight relative operational performance. Such analysis can aid the team by identifying opportunities for training, lessons learned or even good practice.
probabilistic AFE. The AFE splits costs between drilling
Choose the perfect package to suit your business P1™ is available in the following editions:
AGR offers a standard training course for P1™ which is
• Express – Standalone non-networked
targeted at new users of the software and provides a
• Workgroup – Multi-user Networked (LAN)
standardised approach to building models. The one-day
• Enterprise – Multi-user Networked (WAN)
course offers an introduction to Quantitive Risk Analysis,
• Hosted – Hosted Application Service (SaS)
and takes delegates through building a simple model to more complex applications.
EXPRESS
WORKGROUP
ENTERPRISE
HOSTED
Standard Output See the unforeseen Probability software designed to reduce risk and maximise performance
Likelihood of achieving targets Cumulative probability distributions highlight the likely chance of success, together with the best (technical limit) and worst case scenario.
Range of possible outcomes With a range of possible outcomes, actual data can be plotted vs. depth to monitor progress as the well is drilled. That way corrective action can be taken at an earlier stage.
Outcome influences With a breakdown of output by phase, it is easy to identify which phases pose the most significant risk. That way additional mitigation plans can be put in place.
Should you wish to find out more about P1™ or how it may be of help to you please email: p1@agr.com
AGR Petroleum Union Plaza 1 Union Wynd Aberdeen AB10 1SL
Tel: +44 (0)1224 629000 Fax: +44 (0)1224 629001 Email: p1@agr.com www.agr.com
Additional Output See the unforeseen Probability software designed to reduce risk and maximise performance
Six day lookahead The six day operational forecast is exported direct from P1 and is used operationally to optimise logistics planning. Boats, load out lists and actual timings can be added to further reďŹ ne the process and project ahead.
Flowchart The events and sub events can be plotted as a process map and can be used to understand the inter-dependencies of events and the critical path.
Approval for Expenditure An Approval for Expenditure (AFE) can be produced which will detail tangible, intangible and consumable costs. The effect and source of changes to the model can also be easily understood.
Should you wish to find out more about P1™ or how it may be of help to you please email: p1@agr.com
AGR Petroleum Union Plaza 1 Union Wynd Aberdeen AB10 1SL
Tel: +44 (0)1224 629000 Fax: +44 (0)1224 629001 Email: p1@agr.com www.agr.com
Value Planning See the unforeseen Probability software designed to reduce risk and maximise performance
Conventional Vs P1 Conventional planning which is based on a deterministic approach will provide a single answer. P1 on the other hand, which is based on a probabilistic approach, will force the engineer to think about a range of possible outcomes and their likely probability of occurrence.
Time and Cost Estimate P1 includes detailed costs which can be either tangible or intangible. By expressing these costs as either lump sum, unit rate or day rate, the engineer can quickly understand the ďŹ nancial impact of their decisions.
Event Model P1 is based on Monte Carlo simulation which generates thousands of probable outcomes, called scenarios, which might occur in the future. Events are characterised by distributions (uniform, spike, triangular and spike), with a correlation coefďŹ cient applied to prevent collapsing to the mean.
Should you wish to find out more about P1™ or how it may be of help to you please email: p1@agr.com
AGR Petroleum Union Plaza 1 Union Wynd Aberdeen AB10 1SL
Tel: +44 (0)1224 629000 Fax: +44 (0)1224 629001 Email: p1@agr.com www.agr.com
Probably the best commercial decision you will ever make • Specifically designed for well construction
• Produces a probabilistic time and cost estimate for a given well
• Built by well construction engineers for well construction engineers
• Handles correlation
• Geared to the improvement of performance
• 6 day look–ahead – drilling programme outline
• Easy to use
• Provides audit trail record of drilling operations
• Mirrors traditional way of planning a well
• Easily modified to review alternate options
• Allows for a consistent approach
• Easy to read outputs
• Helps engineers understand the well delivery process
• All reports generated in Microsoft Excel
• Enables well construction team to consider risks in planning a well
• Produces project process flow map
• Recognised as the leader in the application of probabilistics to
• Handles contingencies
well construction • Provides effective medium to carry out DWOPs
• Can be used to track operations
• Platform to capture offset data
• Different platforms available.
P1™ clients include: Shell, NEXEN, Chevron, Talisman Energy, BG-Group, AGR Petroleum Services, AGIP KCO, Repsol YPF and Wintershall. Should you wish to find out more about P1™ or how it may be of help to you please email p1@agr.com
AGR Petroleum Union Plaza 1 Union Wynd Aberdeen AB10 1SL
Tel: +44 (0)1224 629000 Fax: +44 (0)1224 629001 Email: p1@agr.com www.agr.com
Designed and produced by Covey McCormick © Copyright 2009 www.covey-mccormick.co uk
• Option comparison feature