What will the world of work look like in 2035?

From artificial intelligence (AI) playing a central role in business decision making, remote work , to an augmented workforce, and centralised organisations — these are some of the possibilities of how work will have changed in 15 years, according to a new study on the future of work.

THE STUDY, titled Work 2035: How people and technology will pioneer new ways of working, was carried out by Citrix Systems in collaboration with Oxford Systems over the course of a year. The study is based on a two-part research study combining alternative futures scenario planning and robust opinion research among over 1500 academics, business leaders and employees across the US and Europe.

Work 2035 aims to examine alternate versions of the future of work in 2035, and how people and technology will work together to create value.

The study identifies four alternative futures of work and imagines how technology will likely change the relationship between people and technology, and how that will influence productivity.

The four scenarios identified by the study are: Freelance Frontiers, Platform Plugins, Powered Productives, and Automation Corporations.

Freelance Frontiers

The Freelance Frontiers scenario envisions work being characterised by augmented workers and distributed organisations. Under this scenario, companies will rely less on permanent employees and more on “swarms” of on-demand specialist professionals who will be enhanced with technology.

Remote working will be made more effective and efficient by technology tools like virtual reality (VR) which will enable people in different parts of the world to train and collaborate in the same environment.

This scenario is informed from data from the survey which showed that 66% of employees and 54% of business leaders interviewed in the course of the study believe that humans with chips embedded in their bodies will have an “ unfair advantage” in the labour market.

In addition, 60% of employees surveyed expect that governments, in reaction to a decline in permanent employment, and the rise of on-demand working patterns, will look to regulate labour practices more stringently.

Platform Plugins

The Platform Plugins scenario envisions work being characterised by replaced workers and distributed organisations. Under this scenario, technologies like AI, machine learning, data capture, and analytics tools will on one hand enable smaller businesses to take on bigger competitors, but on the other hand will enable companies to “drastically downsize” their permanent human workforce. Consequently, specialists — often freelancers — who can build, tweak or check and manage these technologies will be in demand.

This scenario is informed from research from the study which showed that 60% of employees believe permanent employees will have become rare by 2035. In addition, 67% of professionals surveys think that by 2035, most high growth companies will operate on a platform model. The study also found that 63% of professionals believe that technology will level the playing field for smaller firms , which will result in niche specialist businesses.

Powered Productives

The Powered Productives scenario envisions the future of work being characterised by augmented workers and centralised organisations. Successful integration between humans and technology will see corporations benefit from increased productivity. The integration of tech and humans will also give organisations and business leaders access to more data on their workforces and workplaces.

This scenario will see companies who are more successful at integrating humans and technology, and have the most adaptable workers perform better which the study cautions might lead to monopolies in some sectors.

“The caveat is that workers must decide how they feel about their data being monitored and controlled by their employer,” the study points out. The Powered Productives scenario is informed by data from the study which shows that 77% of professionals believe that by 2035 AI will “significantly speed-up” their decision making processed and enable them to be more productive. In addition, 83% of professionals think that in 15 years’ time, workers will focus on more meaningful work as technology will enable the automation of repetitive and low-value tasks.

Automation Corporations

The Automation Corporations scenario imagines the future of work being characterised by replaced workers and centralised organisations. Under this scenario firms which have control over the entire work process will be able to find new efficiencies and adopt new technologies faster, giving them an advantage over their competitors. While permanent employment will prevail, human labour will become more replaceable as more and more roles become automated resulting in workers needing to keep training to stay relevant in the workplace. This scenario is informed by data from the study which indicates that 72% of professionals believe that by 2035 technology and AI will not only generate more revenue for organisations than human workers, but also absorb more of their firm’s annual operating costs. AI investment will be the biggest driver of growth for their companies by 2035 say 75% of professionals surveyed for the study. In addition, 57% of professionals believe that AI could potentially make most business decisions in 15 years and will remove the need for traditional senior management teams. So which of the four scenarios will we likely see in 2035 — what will the world of work look like in 15 years? “Most business leaders anticipate a ‘Powered Productives’ world of strong corporate structures fuelled by a flourishing partnership between people and technology, while most employees foresee a much more fragmented ‘Platform Plugins’ world, with big corporates no longer dominant, and many roles replaced by technology,” says the study.

While the study is based on surveys and research carried out in the US and Europe, it’s a reflection of the general trend in which the world of work — fuelled by existing technologies — is headed. With Covid-19 having proven the efficacy of remote work, as well as hastened the pace of digital transformation on the continent, one wonders which of these scenarios we’ll see take hold in Africa. ai