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Acknowledgements
I want to thank my supervisor, Charlie Wilson, for his enthusiasm and continued support throughout the process of this project. I would like to extend my thanks to my advisor, Irene Lorenzoni, without whom I may not have finished this project. I would also like to thank all the interviewees for allowing me an insight into their roles and experiences with government policies, which have proved invaluable.
“…. We remain on course to deliver on our promise to be the greenest government ever. We will help create green jobs and green growth – and secure the low carbon investment we need to keep the lights on.” - Chris Huhne: UK Energy and Climate Change Secretary
1
Contents Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Key words................................................................................................................................... 4 Special terms and abbreviations ................................................................................................. 3 1. Introduction............................................................................................................................ 5 1.1 Research Question ..........................................................................................................................6 1.2 Climate Change Policy ....................................................................................................................6 1.2.1 International & EU Policy ................................................................................................................ 6 1.2.2 UK Policy.......................................................................................................................................... 6 1.2.3 Domestic Energy Policy ................................................................................................................... 7 1.3 Efficiency Policy...............................................................................................................................7 1.3.1 Green Deal ...................................................................................................................................... 7 1.4 Microgeneration Policy ...................................................................................................................7 1.4.1 Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS)................................................................................. 8 1.4.2 Feed in Tariff (FIT) ........................................................................................................................... 8 1.4.3 Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) ..................................................................................................... 8 1.5 Barriers to Policy success.................................................................................................................9 1.6 Skills Gaps .......................................................................................................................................9 1.6.1 Barriers to skills development....................................................................................................... 10 1.6.2 Facilitators to skills development.................................................................................................. 10 1.7 Theoretical Framework ................................................................................................................. 10 1.8 Necessity of Study ......................................................................................................................... 12
2. Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 13 2.1 Context ......................................................................................................................................... 13 2.2 Local Actors................................................................................................................................... 13 2.3 Secondary Data ............................................................................................................................ 14 2.4 Online Survey ................................................................................................................................ 14 2.4.1 Survey Participant Identification................................................................................................... 14 2.4.2 Survey Content.............................................................................................................................. 14 2.5 Semi‐structured Interviews .......................................................................................................... 14 2.5.1 Interviewee identification ............................................................................................................. 15 2.5.2 Interview content.......................................................................................................................... 15 2.4.2 Interview Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 15
3. Results .................................................................................................................................. 17 3.1 Secondary data ............................................................................................................................. 17 3.2 Survey results................................................................................................................................ 18 3.3 Interview results ........................................................................................................................... 20 3.3.1 Past Policy: Facilitators and Hindrances........................................................................................ 20 3.3.2 Current Policy: Facilitators and Hindrances .................................................................................. 22
4. Discussion ............................................................................................................................. 25 4.1 Past Policy: Facilitators and Hindrances......................................................................................... 25 4.2 Current Policy: Facilitators and Hindrances.................................................................................... 26 4.3 Discussion Summary...................................................................................................................... 31
5. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 33 6. References ............................................................................................................................ 36 7. Appendices ....................................................................................................................................42 2
Index of tables and charts Figure 1: UK energy trends for domestic heat …………………………………………………………………………...7 Figure 2: Domestic PV installations for the lowest tariff band, UK………………………………………….…..8 Figure 3: From technological niche to regime shift……………………………………………………………………11 Figure 4: Data from the National Heat Map showing residential heat demand in Norwich……….13 Figure 5: MCS accredited local contractors for Solar PV in Norwich………………………………………….17 Figure 6: MCS accredited local contractors for renewable heat technologies in Norwich………….17 Figure 7: No. of domestic Solar PV installations in Norwich July 09 – April 2012, Norwich………..17 Figure 8 – 17 & Table 1: Survey results……………………………………………………………………………………..18 Table 2: Brief list of interview respondents and identifiers……………………………………………………….20 Table 3: Detailed list of interview respondents…………………………………………………………..…Appendix
Special terms and abbreviations Acronym
Name
FIT
Feed in Tariff
RHI
Renewable Heat Incentive
SME
Small and Medium sized Enterprises
SNM
Strategic Niche Management
ANT
Actor Network Theory
NCC
Norwich City Council
LEP
Local Economic Partnership
LCTP
Low Carbon Transition Plan
LC
Local Contractor
TP
Training Provider
IO
Institution/Organisation
3
Abstract The UK is facing a huge skills shortage in the transition to a low-carbon economy, as much of the existing workforce must ‘green’ their existing skills. Achieving a successful transition requires both the acquisition of appropriate skills and the development of technology. Policy aims to stimulate low-carbon technology markets through financial incentives, nurturing ‘niche’ markets to eventually replace fossil fuel technologies. The Feed in Tariff was launched to stimulate a variety of low-carbon technologies including solar PV. However, the high installation rate resulted in rapid skills gaps and tariff cuts, halting progression of the PV market. Two new polices; the Green Deal and Renewable Heat Incentive focus on efficiency measures and low-carbon heat technology for the domestic sector. If the pace of upgrading skills is slower than the pace of transition, then the low-carbon technology market may once again suffer. Strategic Niche Management and Actor-Network Theory are used to assess past and current policy success in increasing the skilled workforce, through the creation of niche markets. Interviews in Norwich with local contractors, training providers and institutions show that whilst policy aids skills development through MCS accreditation and identification of actors, much of the current skills increase is due to pre-existing networks. Policy is stalling skills development due to lack of communication and mistrust in the government, in addition to the delay for the domestic RHI. In the case of Norwich, whilst robust networks are beginning to build up around providing skills for the future, better communication between supply and demand of skills is required. It is uncertain the impact that the domestic RHI will have when launched, and the rate that it will drive the transition to a low-carbon economy, but also whether a skills gap will develop. Key words: Strategic Niche Management Actor‐Network theory Green skills Niches Policy Networks
4
1. Introduction
The impacts of anthropogenic climate change from exponential growth of greenhouse gas emissions are upon us for the foreseeable future, resulting in escalating energy prices and issues for energy security. With diminishing North Sea gas reserves and an increasing reliance on imports (DECC, 2011a), the need for the UK to transform its energy sector is immense. A transition to a sustainable low-carbon economy is an opportunity to alleviate these issues, in light of rapidly approaching international and national targets for carbon emissions reductions. Domestic energy constitutes 55% of UK national energy usage, with 80% of domestic heating provided by 18-20 million gas boilers (DECC, 2011a). The Climate Change Act (2008) commits the UK to reducing its carbon emissions by 80% from 1990 levels, in addition to commitments from the Low Carbon Transition Plan (2009) for 15% of all energy to be provided by renewable resources by 2020. Two policies have been launched to increase the pace of transition – firstly energy efficiency measures by the Green Deal, and secondly, Feed in Tariffs (FITs) and Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) to stimulate low-carbon technology markets, as both mitigation and adaptation are seen as of equal importance (Martinez-Fernandez et al., 2010). New markets create opportunities for a large green skilled workforce, estimating a total of 400,000 jobs by 2015 (Bird & Lawton, 2009; Martinez-Fernandez et al. 2010), with 34,000 jobs in installation and maintenance of technologies (BIS & DECC, 2009). However, one large barrier is the availability of appropriate skills (Watson et al. 1998). A number of studies undertaken both nationally and internationally (Green & Martinez-Solano, 2011)(Martinez-Fernandez et al. 2010) (Bird & Lawton, 2009) seek to understand future skills gaps, and what barriers and drivers there are to skills development for the UK low-carbon economy. The transition is unlikely to be a smooth move from one equilibrium to the next, but a series of steps of innovation upgrading, whereby the ‘green jobs’ of today, may become the ‘brown jobs’ of tomorrow (Martinez-Fernandez et al. 2010) and therefore the challenge of policy is to sustain aid for the continual upgrading of skills. This project will entail an investigation into the barriers and drivers of skills development on a local scale, focusing on technological niches that have arisen through interaction with government policy. Strategic Niche Management and Actor-Network Theory will be used to understand both the internal and external processes that influence the success or failure of skills development as a vital component in niche development, whilst looking to develop their use as a policy tool for future niche development.
5
1.1 Research Question “To what extent has policy been effective in increasing a skilled workforce through niche markets?” The primary question will be answered in two sections, through analysis of both past and current policy situations: - “Has policy created a niche market” - “Has the skilled workforce increased through the creation of niche markets?” 1.2 Climate Change Policy There has been a significant increase in mandatory policy implemented nationally and internationally, to continue to aid the reduction of green house gas emissions. 1.2.1 International & EU policy
The Kyoto protocol is a legally binding agreement for carbon emissions reductions for the period 2008-2012. Countries that have signed and ratified the protocol are committed to reducing their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 5% below 1990 levels (UNFCC, 1997). The EU has implemented a mandatory policy for all member states in the Renewable Energy Directive (2009) for 20% of energy to be sourced from renewable technologies by 2020. 1.2.2 UK Policy
The UK has gradually become more reliant on imports, affecting energy security, which impacts economic, technological and social aspects of the energy regime. With gas imports set to increase to 60% in 2020 (HM Government, 2009a), a swifter transition is vital. Seeing the need for a legally binding national agreement to continue post-Kyoto Protocol, the UK introduced the Climate Change Act (2008) to set a target of 80% emissions reductions by 2050, with 34% by 2020 from 1990 levels. The Low Carbon Transition Plan (2009) was subsequently implemented to plan the progression of emissions reductions via sectors. Homes account for 13% of the UK’s GHG emissions, with a 2020 target for 29% reduction of emissions on 2008 levels. Two-thirds of the houses we will be living in by 2050 have already been built, so a large focus on both improving efficiency as well as energy supply will be addressed (HM Government, 2009a). The UK Renewable Energy Strategy (2009) furthers EU policy goals of 15% of renewable energy 6
consumption by 2020, identifying that 30% of electricity demand and 12% of heat demand could come from renewable sources. In the UK, low-carbon technologies are still in their formative stages (BIS & DECC, 2009) (BIS, 2011), therefore the government has decided to nurture this infant industry due to the economic and social benefits expected in time, through the implementation of microgeneration policy. 1.2.3 Domestic Energy Policy Total energy consumption for the domestic sector was 26.5% in 2011 (DECC, 2012a), responsible for 13% of the UK’s total GHG emissions, 57% percent is purely for space heating (Fig. 1). The UK defined a three stage plan in ‘The Future of Heating’ (2012), with the current decade defined as one for completing energy efficiency measures and preparing the way for stage two: mass
deployment
of
low-carbon
heat
technology.
Figure 0: UK energy trends for domestic heat. From (HM Government, 2009a)
1.3 Efficiency Policy
As the domestic sector is such a large contributor to UK GHG emissions, all homes by 2016 are to be carbon neutral (BIS & DECC, 2009). This is a massive task to undertake, with the total number of dwellings within the UK in 2006 registered as 21.87 million, of which 18% is social housing (CLG, 2008). 1.3.1 The Green Deal The domestic energy efficiency requirements occurring through Carbon Emissions Reduction Targets (CERT) and The Community Energy Saving Programme (CESP) policies are now transferred to the Green Deal. This is a ‘bottom up’ framework for efficiency measures, aiming to aid low-carbon heat technology diffusion through providing finance for efficiency measures required for the RHI. (DECC, 2010a). 1.4 Microgeneration Policy Growth of small-scale low carbon technology is vital to the energy transition, aided both financially attractive long-term tariffs, and non-financially through developing the quality of installations, the skills and supply chain, and communication and information (DECC, 2011b) (HM Government, 2011). Long-term financial aids are designed to create stability and certainty in the new markets rather than being driven by one off grants, by reducing the barrier of technology cost (Connor et al., 2012). Two current examples of microgeneration policy include the Feed in Tariff (FIT) and Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) schemes. 7
1.4.1 Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS) Skills development for microgeneration is to some extent aided by the MCS. Originally an industry led EN45011 launched in 2008, now supported by the DECC, it has become a requirement for both technology and installation skills. In order to access the FIT, RHI and RHPP schemes, the installation itself and the installer company must be certified (MCS, 2012). 1.4.2 FITs
The FIT was ‘designed to promote the take up of small-scale low-carbon electricity technologies by the public and communities’ (DECC, 2010b), aiding progression of a variety of technologies, particularly solar PV (Cherrington et al., 2013). Problems occurred in February 2011 when the government announced large tariff cuts, due to underestimation of the success of the market (Leadly, 2011), creating huge peaks and troughs in demand (see Fig.2) and market uncertainty - the opposite of what a long-term policy should do (Negro et al. 2012). Number of Domestic PV installations per week, tariff band 04 kW 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Sunday, July 19, 2009 Sunday, August 23, 2009 Sunday, September 27, 2009 Sunday, November 01, 2009 Sunday, December 06, 2009 Sunday, January 10, 2010 Sunday, February 14, 2010 Sunday, March 21, 2010 Sunday, April 25, 2010 Sunday, May 30, 2010 Sunday, July 04, 2010 Sunday, August 08, 2010 Sunday, September 12, Sunday, October 17, 2010 Sunday, November 21, 2010 Sunday, December 26, 2010 Sunday, January 30, 2011 Sunday, March 06, 2011 Sunday, April 10, 2011 Sunday, May 15, 2011 Sunday, June 19, 2011 Sunday, July 24, 2011 Sunday, August 28, 2011 Sunday, October 02, 2011 Sunday, November 06, 2011 Sunday, December 11, 2011 Sunday, January 15, 2012 Sunday, February 19, 2012 Sunday, March 25, 2012 Sunday, April 29, 2012 Sunday, June 03, 2012 Sunday, July 08, 2012 Sunday, August 12, 2012
0
Figure 2: Domestic PV installations in the lowest tariff band, UK. Sourced from DECC website: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/energy_stats/source/fits/fits.aspx . Accessed 16/08/12
1.4.3 Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI)
The RHI consists of two phases, commercial and domestic, the latter expected Summer 2013 due to a long delayed consultation process. The main aim of the RHI is to “help accelerate deployment by providing a financial incentive to install renewable heating in place of fossil fuels” (DECC, 2011a), encompassing four main core technologies: air and ground source heat pumps, biomass boilers, and solar thermal (DECC, 2012c). Technologies can only be installed if the household has the required 8
energy efficiency ratings, which can be acquired by the Green Deal. There is still great uncertainty over tariff amounts, policy launch, payback periods and the role of social landlords (DECC, 2011a), impacting on the ability of the market to prepare. 1.5 Barriers to policy success Despite incentives, a slow diffusion rate of low-carbon technology prevails, limited by preference to favour technologies that fit in with the incumbent regime over innovative alternatives (Masini & Menichetti, 2012). The cost of technology and the decisions that revolve around investment, (Saunders et al. 2012) in particular uncertainties resulting from ‘stop and go’ meddling or delay in policy implementation (Negro et al. 2012) are seen as the top financial barriers. Non-financial barriers include economic, technical, socio-cultural and institutional aspects (Bergman & Eyre, 2011; Watson et al. 1998) but there is one factor that transcends all these areas – skills gaps. Policy drives the pace of technical change (Jagger et al. 2012) but unless also in control of the capacity of training providers to respond, may mean the market cannot sustain itself. 1.6 Skills Gaps The definition of green skills defined in this paper are those that “contribute to protecting the environment and reducing the harmful effects human activity has on it (mitigation), or to helping to better cope with current climate change conditions (adaptation)” (Martinez-Fernandez et al. 2010). This paper will focus on ‘deep green skills’, where the whole job consists of green skills rather than just one aspect (Jagger et al. 2012). Much of the focus will be on ‘installation skills’. Whilst the low-carbon economy provides new job opportunities, changes in regulation and the pace of transition will result in many new skills gaps. Briggs et al. (2007) identifies that most of these ‘new jobs’ will in fact be a transition of skills from the existing workforce – a ‘greening of old jobs’. Therefore whilst there may be new jobs, the appropriate skills to fill jobs within the new sector may be lacking. Others state there is a requirement for new green skills (ECORYS, 2008). Both government and literature identify the importance of a local influence in skills development, and responsibility from Local Authorities (LAs), Local Economic Partnerships (LEPs) and Sector Skills Councils (SSCs), alongside Further (FE) and Higher education (HE) institutions (HM Government, 2011; Mulugetta et al. 2010), in addition to SMEs (Jaegersberg & Ure, 2011) but there is little information as to how this will be implemented. 1.6.1 Barriers to skills development The main barriers to skills development are highlighted as the cost of training, time constraints, and a low demand for skills (Bird & Lawton, 2009; ProEnviro and DEFRA, 2009; Cedefop, 2012). 9
Green & Martinez disagree, stating that it is the local availability of courses hindering skills development, in particular accredited Level 3 courses (Build up Skills, 2012). However, Jagger (2012) identifies this as a result of the novelty of low-carbon technology, as it straddles more than one sector, and the communication of the courses available. Bird & Lawton (2009) state that these are particular problems for SMEs in terms of available resources, and often result in ‘poaching’ rather than investment in skills. Supply and demand therefore appears to be a recurring error, but whether is differs geographically in different local settings is yet to be identified. In terms of technological barriers, one of the main challenges for policy is supporting both existing technology whilst developing new ‘niche’ markets (Bergman & Eyre, 2011). 1.6.2 Facilitators of skills development
Government and sectors suggest better supply demand communication, and are in the process of setting up national skills academies (New Engineering Foundation, 2010), but there is still a lack of direct policy involvement with the skills development of the ‘bottom up’, only mentioned very briefly in the latest update to the RHI. There are very few published studies available that research niche skills development at a very local level; therefore it would be interesting to see whether international and national results correlate to those on a local level, or if there is a need for local policy
to
adapt
to
a
more
bottom
up
approach
to
skills
development.
1.7 Theoretical Framework The microgeneration policies implemented by government aim to aid the development of particular low-carbon technologies, or ‘niches’, defined as a protected space for novelty technology. (Hoogma et al., 2002; Kemp et al.1998). ‘Niches’ are ‘seeds of change’ for both society and technology, sustained by standards, skills, design, and technology (Schot & Geels, 2008), eventually progressing through markets to form a new socio-technical regime (Nill & Kemp, 2009) (Fig.3). SNM theory can be used as an ‘evolutionary framework’ to assess past success or failure of niches, through analysis of several processes; 1. The articulation of expectations: Whether they are robust, specific, and high quality 2. Building social networks: are they broad and wide? 3. Learning processes: First order (facts and data), and second order: ‘changes in cognitive frames and assumptions’ (Schot & Geels, 2008).
10
Figure 3: From technological niches to regime shift. Source: Schot and Geels, adapted from Weber et al, 1999, 22)
Much of the research for SNM consists of literature reviews, with selected studies using SNM as an analytical framework for national and international case studies (Foxon et al. 2008) (Quitzau et al. 2012). Coenen (2010) and Essletzbichler (2012) use SNM with a geographic viewpoint, identifying niche creation as a geographically isolated process and consequently best used to assess regional settings. SNM is used instead of the Multi-level Perspective, more commonly used for large-scale analysis (Essletzbichler, 2012). Although crucial to transitions, niches are unable to influence regime change alone (Raven, 2005) requiring aid from external networks. Networks are vital to niche development as sustainability journeys ‘are a continuously negotiated accomplishment of an assemblage of humans and things involving deviations and contestations’ (Garud & Gehman, 2012), and therefore the process of network formation is key to understanding and managing niche development. Actor-Network theory (ANT) is therefore employed in addition to SNM, to understand the progression of networks development around niches, identifying that the capacity of involved actors is shaped by the strength of their actor networks, particularly pre-existing networks (Vernay et al., 2013). It is preferred to Social-Network Analysis as ANT allows the incorporation of both human and non-human network actors as heterogeneous contributors to development and success of the network (Vernay et al., 2013; Callon, 1998). ANT analysis occurs through four ‘translation’ processes of network formation, key to understanding the diffusion of innovations; 1. Problematisation: The focal actor identifies the problem, solution, and the roles of actors 2. Interessement: The focal actor persuades actors to join network 3. Enrolment: Actors successfully join network 4. Mobilisation: Maintained commitment from actors. The more actors that join the network, the stronger the chance of innovation to be a success 11
1.8 Necessity of this study Whilst policy aids the creation of technological niches, it is left to 'identified' actors to decide how to manage the supply and demand of appropriate skills required. On a national scale it appears that there are problems with the supply and demand of skills, so whether the same problems appear on the local scale is yet to be examined. The skills required are also cross-sectoral in nature that may require better national and local policy guidance. In addition, as SNM is a recent development requiring more attention (Caniëls & Romijn, 2006; Quitzau et al. 2012) this research can potentially aid the improvement of SNM as management tool for future niche development, in particular how Norwich is shaping up for the RHI. The aim of this project is to examine the barriers and facilitators of skills development within local niche markets, using SNM and ANT to examine both internal and external processes in play. By assimilating a city wide case study of a variety of actors involved with specific niche development, namely those created by the FIT and RHI policies, the aim is to identify if policy creates an increase in the skilled workforce through niche markets, and what can be done to build up skills at the same pace as the dispersion of the niche technology.
12
2. Method Due to the exploratory nature of the research question, a qualitative approach is utilised, useful for developing a ‘comprehensive understanding’ of the groups involved in the study area (Miles & Huberman, 1994), but also the relative social interactions and network that surrounds these groups (Bernard & Ryan, 2010). In addition, there is a limited theoretical base that links together both SNM and ANT techniques, in particular the analysis of skills development as part of niche processes, restricting the ability to deduct a quantifiable testable hypothesis. A mixed methods approach was taken so that it would be possible to infer some reliability between data sets. 2.1 Context The city of Norwich has been identified as a suitable case study for a number of reasons – as a population hub of 143, 488 in mid 2010 (ONS, 2012) in the east, Norwich signifies a high domestic heat demand (Fig. 4) in an isolated location, which may in future provide an opportunity energy independence.
Figure 4: Data from The National Heat Map showing the residential heat demand in Norwich, Norfolk, UK. (DECC, 2012d)
2.2 Local actors The New Anglia LEP covers both Norfolk and Suffolk and is actively involved with the development of the local green economy, with aims to achieve ‘sustainable growth, skills development within the region and beyond’, through the recently published ‘Green Economy Pathfinder’ (New Anglia LEP, 2012). LA’s have been identified as crucial in the mobilisation of citizens and stake holders (Evans et al., 2006), aiding low-carbon transition management by creating opportunities for green activities and investments, alongside emissions reductions
(Martinez-Fernandez et al. 2010). Norwich has
identified their role in NCC’s Environmental Strategy, with emissions reductions of 16.9% over the last three years (Norwich City Council, 2011). Developing a green economy in Norwich will be challenge, with five of Norwich’s 13 wards ranked 13
in the most deprived 5% of wards nationally for education and skills, and a city unemployment rate of 4.7% (June 2009) (Norwich City Council, 2012a). Despite this, over the last two years NCC has been involved in a city wide eco-retrofitting project for social housing. Consisting of ~ 16,000 houses (Norwich City Council, 2006), NCCâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s social housing stock provides a unique opportunity to launch low-carbon technology on a large scale whilst impacting broader societal issues. Data collection to understand the case study of Norwich consists of collection of secondary data, a short survey and semi-structured interviews. 2.3 Secondary data Data was collected from the DECC on FIT solar PV installation rates in Norwich from April 2010 to September 2012. Data on local contractor accreditation rates was collected on 23rd September 2012 from the Microgeneration Certification Scheme register (MCS), using a postcode sample frame within 10 miles from City Hall (post code NR2 1NH), with all contractors accredited at the time of sampling. 2.4 Online Survey A short online survey was designed to make basic comparisons over time, being quick and easy to access and complete, though a pilot study was undertaken with a local contractor to identify problems with suitability and comprehension. 2.4.1 Survey Participant Identification Local contractors were identified again using the MCS register. 60 contractors were contacted from two subgroups - solar PV and renewable heat technologies, with an overall response rate of 20. Contractors were independently contacted with a preliminary email, sent the survey link via email, receiving both email and telephone reminders in consecutive weeks. All survey entries were anonymous. 2.4.2 Survey Content Closed survey questions were developed in three sections: General Background Information, Solar PV and FITs, and the RHI to encompass all actors. The aim of the survey was to investigate the experiences of past policy (FITs) and building up to future policy (RHI), including barriers to niche and skills development, alongside network links. 2.5 Semi-structured Interviews Semi structured interviews were the best suited to this case study due to the variety of actors involved, allowing freedom of discussion around main topics. A pilot interview was run with a local contractor, resulting in only minor changes of topic focus. 14â&#x20AC;Š
2.5.1 Interviewee identification Interviewees were identified by three groups; local contractors, training providers, and institutions. . A total of 45 potential interviewees were contacted, through a mixture of purposive and snowball sampling, which allows a researcher to strategically build up a sample that is relevant to the research questions and theory (Robson, 2002; Bryman, 2008). 17 interviews were confirmed in total, (see appendix for full list) taking place between 17th October â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 7th November, occurring for 20-40 minutes and recorded in full. Due to time frames and transport mobility, interviews were conducted both in person and via telephone. Local contractors were identified from the initial survey-sampling frame via purposive sampling, from various backgrounds and installing a range of technologies, to gain a representative sample of the renewable technology market place in the Norwich with a particular focus on the transition of skills. Both purposive and snowball sampling from previous interviews identified training providers. A large number of training providers had to be excluded from the interview selections due to spatial restrictions to the Norwich and Greater Norwich area. Institutions were identified primarily by snowball sampling, as many actors are not immediately visible as active in the area. Actors approached for interviews included LAs, Chamber of Commerce, Social Housing, local organisations and local MPs. 2.5.2 Interview content The interviews were based around two main topics of past policy and current/near future policy interactions. Within these two main areas, several key areas were addressed: primarily on the role of the actor and how they are involved in the larger network, skills gaps and skills development, and secondly the involvement and roles of policy and government. Within these key areas, drivers and barriers were investigated. The key topics were broad to encompass the variety of actors interviewed, so to be comparable. Full transcripts are available on request. The results from all interviews were used to compare between groups and between actors, and to draw conclusions. 2.5.3 Interview analysis Thematic analysis (Braun & Clarke, 2006; Bryman, 2008), employing both theory driven (Weber, 1990) and grounded theory driven aspects (Glaser & Strauss, 1967) is used, as the majority of subthemes will appear through interaction with the data. Constructing a matrix for each interview allows for easy comparison between interviews and between stakeholder groups, where the research question is divided into past and present policy, alongside niche and skills development. Themes and subthemes that appear will then be revised and expanded, with frequencies and saliency of 15â&#x20AC;Š
themes highlighted and compared, resulting the exclusion of some themes not relevant to the central argument.
â&#x20AC;Š 16â&#x20AC;Š
3. Results 3.1 Secondary data MCS accreditation of contractors for 'renewable heat' technologies in Norwich, 2009‐2012 No. of accreditations
No. of accreditations
MCS accredited contractors for Solar PV in Norwich 2009‐2012
20 15 10 5 0 Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Year 1
Figure 5: No. of MCS accredited local contractors for Solar PV in Norwich.
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Figure 6: No. of MCS accredited local contractors for renewable heat technologies in Norwich.
Fig. 5 depicts a rapidly increasing accreditation rate for local contractors in Norwich, peaking at 13 in 2011, around the time of the first planned cuts in tariff rates, and decreasing rapidly thereafter. The number of accreditations for renewable heat is much less (Fig. 6), peaking at six contractors in 2010, perhaps in preparation for the original domestic RHI launch date, and just three in 2012. No. of domestic Solar PV Installations in Norwich July 09 ‐ April 2012, Norwich, UK
No. of installations
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Figure 7: Shows the number of solar PV installation in Norwich since the launch of FITs. Raw data source: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/energy_stats/source/fits/. Accessed 23/09/12
The installation rate for solar PV in Norwich (Fig. 7) is close to national variation (Fig. 2), with a peak of 103 installations in November 2011 before the drop in tariff rates, to just one installation in April 2012. Whether the market will increase again at a more stable rate is uncertain. 17
3.2 Survey results
The number of observations on the data survey is not sufficient to do statistical analysis, but it does provide indications into the dynamics of the generalizations of the local market place, useful to as a guide to support arguments. The most interesting results are displayed below. 3.2.1 General & FIT section
Figure 8: How many full time employees, or equivalent of, are currently working in your company?
Figure 9: Was your company previously or still is one of the following companies?
Of the respondents surveyed, 14 were micro business and six were small, fitting within the Storey & Greene (2010) definition of SMEs (Fig. 8). This illustrates the prevalence of small businesses in the low-carbon technology market, or perhaps those that have survived previous markets. Respondents come from a variety of previous experiences including seven from electrical and four from plumbing backgrounds (Fig.9), worth note because the transfer of skills could be a driving force in local energy transitions. Fig. 10 shows that the majority of respondents install solar PV and thermal, closely followed by air source heat pumps and biomass boilers. The high PV rate may cause a problem for future niche development, as a high electrical skills base may be limited in a renewable heat market.
Figure 10: What products does your company currently provide?
Figure 11: When your company decided to move into the PV market, did you observe an 'installer's skills gap'?
Thirteen respondents observed a skills gap when the FITs were launched (Fig.11) with the majority then training up existing employees (Fig.12) alongside some evidence of subcontracting. This is interesting to observe if the same problems occur for new niches, and if lessons have been learnt from previous experiences. 18
Other [7] Train new employees [2] Subcontract already skilled workers [2] Train new employees [0]
Train up existing employees [9]
Figure 12: How was the installer’s gap addressed?
3.2.2 RHI section
Figure 13: Is your company considering moving into the renewable heat market?
Figure 14: How prepared is your company for the RHI? (1= very unprepared, 5 = very prepared)
13 respondents are considering moving into the renewable heat market (Fig. 13), with 50% of respondents responding that they are very prepared (Fig.14) which could be either due to existing skills in the company, or preparation for what will be a smaller market demand. Table 1: How are you addressing the skills gap for installing renewable heat technologies?
Method
No.
Percentage
Training up existing employees
8
40%
Train new employees
0
0%
Subcontract already skilled workers
3
15%
Hire already skilled new employees
1
5%
There is no skills gap in my company
4
20%
Other
4
20%
Eight respondents state they would train up existing staff, or there is in fact no skills gap in their company (Table 1), which could be perhaps explain the level of preparedness shown in Fig. 14. Seven respondents identified ‘uncertainty of market success’ as the main hindrance to company development for the RHI (Fig. 15), which is exemplified in Fig.17, where nine respondents have identified ‘neither successful nor unsuccessful’ as to whether the RHI will build up a competitive sustainable local market. This is interesting given the high level of preparedness highlighted in Fig 14. 19
Finance Shortage of applied skills and knowledge Amount of rules and regulations Uncertainty of market success Company size Competition
Other
Figure 15: What do you identify as the biggest hindrance to your development as a company for the RHI?
Figure 17: On a scale of 1‐5, how successful do you think the RHI will be in building up a competitive, sustainable market for local contractors?
3.3 Interview Results
Table 2: List of respondents and identifiers
In exploring the research questions, four main themes were
Actor
Stakeholder Group
identified as affecting niche and skills development: Government
1
LC
2
LC
3
LC
Training, and Economy and Business. Within each major theme
4
LC
are subthemes. To answer the research questions, both past and
5
LC
current policy events were researched through investigation of
6
LC
7
LC
8
LC
stakeholders including local contractors (LCs), training providers
9
TP
(TPs) and institutions/organisations (IOs) (Table 2). See
10
TP
11
TP
12
IO
By comparing past and current policies, recommendations can be
13
IO
made towards management of future niches.
14
IO
15
IO
16
IO
17
IO
and Policy, Communication and Networks, Education and
niche and skills development, and the roles of various
appendix
for
extended
respondent
3.3.1 Past Policy
table.
Characterisation When asked whether policy had a role in niche development, eight actors agreed that it had, particularly as they had moved into the market due to the policy, although Actor 2 added that building regulations played an influencing role. However, four actors also moved into the niche as a result of ‘the natural progression of technology’, which indicated that policy is not the only facilitator to niche development.
20
Whilst niche participation grew, the skilled workforce was defined as having increased only slightly by five actors, whilst the rest of the market grew rapidly, including Actor 2. Despite rapid market growth, Actors 1 and 4 made a conscious decision to grow slowly, showing aspects of ‘specific articulation of expectations’, defined by Schot & Geels (2008) as ‘crucial’ for niche development. Facilitators The main facilitator for both niche and skills development, identified by eight actors, was ‘government and policy’. Four LCs highlighted the aid of ‘financially attractive tariffs’, and the requirement of MCS accreditation for niche access, showing a strong association between policy and skills development, with particular provision of EU funding for skills development (two IOs). ‘Communication’ was additionally identified by six actors, through the facilitation of ‘public awareness and demand’ driving niche development. ‘Economy and business’ is emphasized by three LCs, specifically the ‘easy transition form electrical to PV’, which may explain why four LCs experienced ‘quick local contractor development’. This is interesting as it may be that the success of a niche can to some extent be understood by the availability of pre-existing skills in the local area. Hindrances ‘Government and Policy’ was identified by ten actors as the main hindrance, despite also being a facilitator. Through poor government management and subsequent tariff cuts (four actors), the resultant ‘gold-rush’ (six actors) caused both unsustainable workloads and rapid skills gaps for local contractors (six actors), in addition to problems with the rapid demand for accreditation. “The certification and the registration of the system is an absolute minefield (…) when that was at its peak, you couldn’t even log onto the MCS website to register your installation (…) it just couldn’t cope with the volume” – Actor 3 This shows how policy can perhaps limit niche and skills development through lack of robust policy aims and networks, resulting in a lack of control over transition pace. However, these experiences may result in learning processes for government and local networks, for future niche developments. The role of LA ‘procurement processes’, whilst aiming to select the most suitable LC for the project, are identified as a ‘price fight’ by LCs. Through lack of resources, smaller LCs are possibly losing out, which may be a limiting factor to local niche development if regional or national companies gain contracts over LCs in future RHI related projects, hindering investment in local skills and SMEs.
21
For LCs, ‘Economy and business’ was the main hindrance, in particular for skills development, due to commercial competition and a lack of resources to invest in skills. This then resulted in four LCs to subcontract, which now continues as tariff cuts have resulted in a reduction of the market size. Supply and demand appears as hindrance for LCs, via ‘Education and training’ due to ‘slow local training provision’. However, TPs declare it was in fact ‘lack of awareness of training opportunities’ by LCs, indicating that communication is an issue, and perhaps the roles given to actors, by policy, are not being fulfilled. 3.3.2 Current Policy Characterisation Current policy is identified by eight actors as creating a niche market, in addition to building regulations. Five LCs disagreed, highlighting the ‘natural progression and diversification of technology’ as the main facilitator. Actor 1 stressed the effect of previous non-government policy on niche development, which may have increased the availability of pre-existing networks for current skills development, aiding transition. “In 2001, the NEF started a pilot project called “Selfsol’ (…) and that was the first UK big incentive (…) big push to stimulate the UK solar hot water market” – Actor 1 Despite disagreement, five LCs express current growth of the skilled workforce with three identifying ‘future growth’, although two ‘not growing’ due to partnership or subcontracting work. Four LCs hire basic skills and complete ‘in-house training’ which may help to explain why communication between supply and demand of skills is hindering, as training is done internally and thus demand is not communicated externally. Facilitators The main facilitator for niche development is ‘Economy and business’ (16 actors), in particular the ‘green agenda’ of both the LA and individual actors, plus ‘social housing’ mentioned chiefly by LCs, perhaps showing a development of local networks and a more ‘bottom up’ approach. As in past policy, the ‘transferability of skills’ aids skills development, again interesting in terms skills and niche development aided by pre-existing networks. “Moving from heat to power is very easy. Moving from power to heat has a whole lot more challenges” – Actor 1 ‘Communication’ (16 actors) plays a facilitating role for both niche and skills development, through both ‘public awareness and demand’, but more so through ‘network building helping to overcome barriers’ created by lack of resources. Communication aids network building – there is currently a 22
large number of actors mentioned as involved with niche and skills development, including LAs, universities, colleges, LEP, chamber of commerce, social housing and industry. Using technology to communicate aims, such as websites (six actors) also facilitates network building. In contrast, the main facilitator for skills development is ‘Education and training’ (13 actors) although this again may link to the development of local networks, as ‘better links with FE and HE establishments’, alongside ‘better industry provision of training courses’, are mention by six actors, mainly TPs and IOs. “So that puts quite a break on our ability to develop (…) we get stuck because if you don’t have quite enough money you cant by in enough staff time to do the work that you’d like to do (…) the way round that is to work in partnership with lots of different organisations” – Actor 14 IOs mention the planned Norwich University Technical College (UTC) as the main facilitator for future development in particular for practical courses from a young age, highlighting learning processes that are occurring in terms of planning for skills development. “So from the age of 14 when students are starting to plan their careers, it’s a much more heavily invested area where they can get those practical skills. (…) we’ve got 20 or so employer partners, it’s purely designed to try and get this renewable energy market to be skilled up” – Actor 11 Future niche development may be aided by LA projects, briefly mentioned by Actor 13; “There is a huge citywide scheme that is being looked at that would more than take advantage of the RHI (…), which is huge”. Hindrances Thematic analysis highlighted ‘Government and policy’ as the main hindrance (15 actors) in particular for LCs and TPs through ‘previous policy events’ creating mistrust and uncertainty (eight actors) in addition to the delay of current policies – creating a ‘stop and go’ effect often associated with new policies. This may have been due to ‘communication’ (13 actors) through ‘lack of clear policy aims’. “Everybody went out to train as a home surveyor, which included a little bit of energy assessment (…) they cancelled that, and suddenly we had 6,000 energy performance assessors and no one was selling any houses (…) so that market, regarding skills, that investment in skills that had gone on for 12 months, was completely destroyed. So that’s a nice little example of how the government for all the right reasons would inject incentives into the green economy (…) the stop-start in skills generation isn’t consistent” – Actor 11
23
‘Economy and business’ (12 actors) hinders skills development by subcontracting, which is a result of market uncertainties created by ‘Government and policy’ but also through lack of transferrable skills, and awaiting new policy. It is interesting if past policy experiences are limiting current niche development not only through uncertainty but also through stalling the development of skills, with five actors identifying the ‘slow pace of transition’ as a hindrance. This may explain the slow rate of investment of skills. ‘Lack of resources’ is a theme that appears often (9 actors) across all groups, and may additionally hinder slow skills development through limited investment. “It actually creates problems for the market – domestic have been waiting for it for a year. The number of heat pumps being installed in 2012 is down on where it could have been because everyone’s waiting. What they’ve done is stall the market” - Actor 2 Education and training is mentioned by eight actors again due to lack of local availability (LCs) and lack of demand (TPs), though LCs additionally mention the ‘cost of commercial training’ as a hindrance to skills development, which may explain why much training by LCs is ‘in-house’, although this may be difficult depending on pre-existing networks. Five actors identify the need for policy to stimulate the market, in particular the tariffs. LCs again identify procurement processes as a hindrance.
24
4. Discussion The aim of this study is to appraise the role of policy creating a skilled workforce through niche market development, by interviewing both the internal and external actors involved. Four main themes relating to the research questions emerged; Government & Policy, Communication, Education & Training, and Economy & Business. SNM permits a descriptive overview of the local situation to assess what aspects are being fulfilled currently, compared to past policy experiences. SNM attempts to answer the research question by investigating facilitators and barriers to niche and skills development. The theory expects three main attributes to contribute to niche success; the articulation of expectations, the building of social networks, and learning processes. ANT analysis emphasises niche progression, through translation of actions from problem to solution. It is used here to zoom in particular on skills development through the role of niche actors in network building, as identified by policy. The four processes of translation; problematisation, interessement, enrolment and mobilisation, will be used to assess current niche progress. The combination of these methods will help to identify what can be done to build up skills at the same pace as the dispersion of the niche technology at the local level. Both past and current policy is discussed, although the main arguments will occur in the latter, drawing on experiences of past policy. 4.1 Past Policy Facilitators SNM highlights the need for articulation of expectations for niche development, which partially occurred through the need for financially attractive tariffs to stimulate the market, alongside MCS accreditation requirements for specific skills development. Launch of the FIT resulted in swift interessement and enrolment of local contractors installing solar PV, and involvement with social housing. This is highlighted by accreditation rates (Fig.5) and installation rates in Norwich (Fig. 7). Vernay et al. (2013) discuss the role of pre-existing socio-technical networks facilitating the development of new networks. LCs support this statement through identifying the ‘natural progression of technology’ rather than policy aiding niche progression, particularly the easy transition from electrical to solar PV skills. ‘Quick local development’ mentioned by respondents, confirms a swift transition, in particular for LCs, illustrating that investing in low-carbon technology SMEs could facilitate a rapid pace for future niche development. This could be because the majority of low-carbon technology businesses in the Norwich area are SMEs (Fig. 8), and thus 25
may be able to develop quicker if training two rather than 200 installers. This is mainly due to their adaptability and flexibility advantages (BERR, 2009). Secondary learning processes were aided to some extent by ‘communication’ through increased public awareness and subsequent demand for solar PV (Fig. 7). Hindrances ‘Government and policy’ was highlighted by thematic analysis as facilitating niche development. Despite the specific articulation of expectations, bad government management due to underestimation of the success of the market (Leadly, 2011) resulted in tariff cuts, unsustainable workloads, and huge issues with market stability and indeed its growth. For many LCs, the demand resulted in subcontracting taking precedence over skills development due to time constraints. Past policy subsequently did not reach the final ANT translation stage of ‘mobilisation’, due to lack of maintained commitment. “The market’s a fifth of what it was” – Actor 3 Despite rapid interessement and enrolment of LCs, local TPs were slower on the uptake, as the pace of transition created by policy resulted in interessement of many actors, but of few stakeholder groups. Growth of this narrow social network was additionally hindered by lack of articulation of expectations of skills supply and demand between LCs and TPs. Schot and Geels (2008) identify that these narrow networks are the result of a technology push approach, with little action towards broader niche processes. Whilst social housing had slightly facilitated niche development through network involvement, LA procurement processes exist as a barrier to local involvement for LCs, due to competition with larger companies who can stage a ‘price fight’. Lack of LC resources therefore limited their ability to win LA contracts, which could build local demand for both technology and skills. 4.2 Current Policy Facilitators As with past policy, current policy is creating niche markets. However, building regulations, past non-government policies, and the natural progression of technology all contribute to enrolment of actors. Vernay et al. (2013) highlights the benefits of pre-existing networks in aiding new network development, supporting the interview results which strongly suggests that not all increase in skills is due to the microgeneration policy itself, but a multitude of other influences. Unlike past policy,
26
the increase in the skilled workforce is slow, but this may change with the growth of the Green Deal and implementation of the domestic RHI policy. The past facilitator for niche development was ‘Government and Policy’, but this responsibility has now passed more locally to ‘Economy and business’, linking to work by Essletzbichler (2012) and Coenen, Raven, & Verbong (2010) identifying niche development as a geographically isolated process. In addition, the two main processes of translation defined by ANT, interessement and enrolment, appear to be facilitated by one actor in particular – the LEP. Although a new development, the New Anglia LEP received many of its roles from the pre-existing network of the regional development agency. The LEPs aid interessement and enrolment of the local economy by building broad and deep social networks with the renewable sector, education, and SMEs, as well as aiding the articulation of expectations within the local economy, directly to government. The LEP may be the key to future mobilisation of the green economy, as their commitment to aiding skills development in particular, is a large part of the development pathway for both Norfolk and Suffolk, as defined in the Green Economy Pathfinder. “We’re the lead LEP on this (…) we’re speaking to ministers to tell them quite clearly and correctly in straightforward fashion, that they need to sort out the policy, whatever the policy is, whether is high tariff, low tariffs, middle tariffs as it were (…) they need to nail down what those numbers are so that the industry can have certainty to plan for the medium term, let alone for the long term” – Actor 12 In terms of skills development, again ‘pre-existing networks’ within ‘economy and business’ play a facilitating role, with LCs already installing renewable heat products quicker at moving into the market, than those that require skills upgrading This is identified by Actor 1; “Moving from heat to power is very easy. Moving from power to heat has a whole lot more challenges”. Therefore preexisting networks may facilitate skills and niche development, supporting work by Briggs et al. (2007) that most jobs will in fact be a transition of skills from the existing workforce, rather than completely new skills as stated by ECORYS (2008). However in Norwich this may be a challenge due to the prevalence of electrical backgrounds (Fig.9) and solar PV installers (Fig.10). ‘Communication’ was highlighted by thematic analysis as a key theme for both niche and skills development/ Compared to past policy, ‘communication’ at the local level has increased in terms of the breadth and depth of the network – including social housing landlords, Norwich City Council, colleges, universities, and public awareness. This supports the suggestions by Martinez-Fernandez et al. (2010), highlighting the importance of the local influence on skills development. Schot & Geels (2010) specify in SNM theory that the necessity of resources for change is a limiting factor. However, the building of networks and more robust articulation of expectations are helping 27
actors to overcome barriers created by lack of resources or removal of funding, aiding enrolment. This applies to all actors – public sector cuts resulted in a reduced workforce for IOs, but are now working in partnership to deliver projects. Lack of funding was limiting TPs in their ability to provide specific courses, who now working in regional partnerships to deliver those goals. LCs, on the other hand, whilst some are developing skills, others are working in partnerships and subcontracting to overcome obstacles. It appears that a lack of funding is aiding stability, through building a supporting network between many heterogeneous elements – but this may be ‘upset’ with the launch of the domestic RHI. ‘Communication’ is aiding learning processes in ‘Education and training’ through networks. TPs and IOs are specifically targeting the link between education and employers reduce supply and demand problems. However, the main secondary learning process, is the development of the Norwich UTC, encompassing actors from the energy sector, employer partners, colleges and universities. The UTC has specific expectations to supply skills to the renewable energy sector in future, by focussing on practical learning from a young age. This supports the need for a regional model for skills policy, as Essletzbichler (2010) highlights that to strengthen technological development, regional visions must be built utilising local actors and resources. ‘Communication’ is facilitating interessement and enrolment of network actors via use of technology – whether this is TPs providing an up to date list of renewable energy courses available locally, or the LEP setting up a business information portal for the local economy. The presence of ‘technology’ as an actant for network development supports that Law’s (1999) ANT is an appropriate theory to work alongside SNM. This includes the role of non-human actors as heterogeneous elements to network progression. Hindrances ANT states that commitment of focal actors must be sustained to reach mobilisation of the network. The thematic analysis strongly suggests that ‘Government and Policy’ is a large hindrance to niche and skills development due to lack of commitment arising from meddling in past policies. This results in LCs avoiding long-term investment decisions such as skills upgrading, for markets deemed as uncertain (Fig.15), limiting niche development to the translation stage of interessement. While LCs are considering a move into the market (Fig. 13) very few actors are actually enrolling into the network for the Green Deal and domestic RHI. Mistrust of government is aided by lack of communication. SNM states that articulation of expectation for niche development is crucial (Schot & Geels, Strategic niche management and sustainable innovation journeys: theory, findings, research agenda, and policy, 2008), supported by respondents who identified the lack of policy clarity as large barrier to skills development. Garud & 28
Gehman (2012) and Bergman & Eyre (2011) both identify that in order move towards a sustainable transition, policy must be a continuously evaluative and reiterated process. This is not visible at the moment in terms of the launch delay of the domestic RHI, as there is a need for sustained and stable financial support for technology to achieve its potential (Foxon et al., 2005). Negro et al. (2012) define this ‘stop and go’ effect of policy as a hard institutional problem affecting future niche success. A current lack of stability is also stalling both niche and skills progression, which extends to the uptake of MCS accreditation (Fig. 6). “It actually creates problems for the market – domestic have been waiting for it for a year. The number of heat pumps being installed in 2012 is down on where it could have been because everyone’s waiting. What they’ve done is stall the market” - Actor 2 It therefore appears that both past policy and current lack of communication are greater barriers to skills development than the cost of training or time constraints, as highlighted by Bird & Lawton (2009). Additionally, that technological niches require external processes to facilitate rapid change. The domestic RHI does have the potential to be successful if ‘learning processes’ have occurred in government. Through extra planning and increased consultation the domestic RHI will hopefully be a more robust and higher quality policy. ‘Education and training’ is a hindrance in addition to ‘communication’. Through the disappearance of local sector skills councils and the redistribution of those roles, SME’s find themselves responsible for articulating skills demand to the LEP and national sector skills councils. Whilst the articulation of expectations from government is clear with regards to the role of SME’s, it is plain that the communication of local skills supply and demand is in need of work. This is primarily hindered by previous policy failure causing a lack of trust in the government, and thus unwillingness to invest in skills. LCs could facilitate network growth and communication by firstly creating a network with other local contractors rather than competing, and then integrating into developing networks. LCs need to be involved in the low carbon transition as part of the total decentralisation process of the energy sector. Nonetheless, if there are skills gaps then most LCs appear to develop the skills needed by training up existing employees (Fig.12 and Table 1) rather than externally training, or (similarly to past policy) subcontracting. The problem with subcontracting, as highlighted by Jagger (2012), is that it hides skills shortages, which in the case for Norwich may rapidly come to light when the domestic RHI is launched. This is particularly important if NCC’s citywide RHI plans for social housing come in to place.
29
Whilst TPs are involved in interessement, they are unable to enter enrolment due to a lack of resources, despite wanting to provide locally accredited courses. TPs are additionally hindered by competition from commercial training providers. The delay of the domestic RHI may be hiding latent skills gap, and when the policy is finally launched and the pace of deployment begins to increase, skills gaps could surface and stall the progression of the market (Jagger et al., 2012). With any new technology there is likely to be a skills gap, which occurred for solar PV (Fig. 11). The problem therefore seems to be that as these markets are new and cross-sectoral, aided by the transition of some pre-existing skills networks but not others. Jagger et al., (2012) highlight the lack of a comparable industry to draw experiences fro. This explains the lack of stability and communication between government and niche actors. Therefore, policy needs to address skills gaps in a supply led rather than demand led system, to ensure a smooth transition. This contrasts to Green & Martinez-Solano (2011) who recommend a focus towards a demand led rather than supply led system. In addition, whilst the UTC may address future skills gaps, it is the training of the existing labour force that needs to be addressed due to nearfuture latent demand (ProEnviro, 2010).
30â&#x20AC;Š
4. 3 Discussion summary
Figure 18: Illustrating the actor roles given by government in problematisation. Niches are surrounded by a variety of influencing actors, but are facing development problems through government and policy, in addition to supply and demand communication with education and training. Communication with and between institutions is beginning to build up a robust, broad network, focussing on skills gaps and future skills development.
Overall, the findings support that many of the factors affecting niche development are inherently related to skills development: one must be investigated to understand the other. Fig. 18 identifies the main processes involved in niche and skills development. Whilst policy identifies actors to be involved in solutions, alongside requirements for MCS accreditation, much of the current increase in skills is through natural progression of technology. At present, policy has been the opposite of effective at increasing the skilled workforce, as it is because of policy that the market is stalling and there is an unwillingness to invest in skills. The results suggest that whilst ANT is useful in assessing the progression of local network building around skills development, its addition to SNM identifies the attributes required to reach the next level of translation, and as a result aids management of future niche development.
31
SNM Building social networks has improved since past policy, particularly at the local/regional level, but with progress to be made in reaching the pace required to meet targets. Network building aids overcoming financial barriers in particular, by promoting partnership working. Articulation of expectations is improving, again at a local level, particularly through the LEP. However, SMEs need to be more vocal about supply and demand of skills, although this may pick up when the domestic RHI launches in summer 2013. Lack of current action may result in near future skills gaps, depending on the pace of transition. Learning processes are more prevalent at present than in the past, particularly with regards to provision of practical courses from a young age at the planned UTC, specifically for the renewables industry. This addresses future supply of skills but not the ‘greening’ of current skills. ANT Problematisation is the same situation past and present, in terms of microgeneration policy as one of the solutions for the low-carbon economy transition. An additional problem for government is how to avoid the experiences of past policy, and communicating supply and demand of skills. The LEP, SSC’s and SME’s are identified as having roles to facilitate network development to solve these problems. Rapid interessement occurred in the past due to financial incentives and the need for accreditation. Current interessement is hindered by past policy experiences and uncertainty of market success, limiting willingness to invest in skills for new niches. Enrolment was very swift for LCs in correlation with the FIT, but slow for other actors. TPs were slow to respond to the supply of local training. Current enrolment is also limited by past policy experiences, although some actors are prepared for the Green Deal and RHI markets due to their pre-existing networks and skills – particularly LCs that already install renewable heat technologies. Mobilisation was very swiftly but temporarily achieved by the FIT, but the network soon moved back to problematisation after the tariff cuts. Current policy has the opportunity to reach mobilisation if the delayed RHI launch has resulted in learning processes from past policy. In addition, commitment from the LA through procurement processes would aid both niche and skills development, in particular if the city-wide RHI project goes ahead.
32
5. Conclusion Policy was initially very effective in increasing skills alongside niche development, through MCS requirements for both the installation and the installer. However, policy also hindered skills and niche development through bad management of the market. Tariff cuts, lack of policy commitment and communication, resulted in mistrust of the government, and uncertainty of future market success. Policy, both past and present, hinders current niche development, through mistrust and lack of communication. A particular focus is the uncertainty caused by the delay of the domestic RHI, where the presence of the tariff is stalling skills development and the natural progression of technology. Despite this, there is some increase in the skilled workforce in Norwich, due to a combination of pre-existing networks, in addition to building regulations. Pre-existing networks are an important focus for skills development, particularly where markets are new and cross-sectoral in nature, providing a support and learning framework. In terms of near future skills development, whilst there appears to be no gap at present, this may change once the markets for the Green Deal and domestic RHI develop. Broad and deep networks with robust expectations are beginning to build up in all areas, from local council, to colleges, and the LEP. Specifically the development of the UTC aiming to develop skills needed for the future renewables sector. Skills gaps for renewable heat may still occur next year, or the year after, especially if demand is a lot higher than anticipated, and LCs are limited due to lack of development in skills. Further research recommendations While many of the actors involved with niche and skills development are based around Norwich, it would be interesting to see if an East Anglian study could be carried out, specifically linking TPs, IOs and LCs, addressing skills gap both locally and regionally. This would link in well with the work being done by the LEP, in addition to providing opportunities for LCs to expand their network area. A similar study could be undertaken in one year’s time, after the launch of the RHI to see whether skills gaps have developed, and whether broader networks have aided stability. Implication for policy National policy, in terms of microgeneration, contains little information specific to skills development, particularly on the local basis. Government policy identifies actors to facilitate skills development through communication of supply and demand. However, the novelty of the skills required, in addition to the infancy of the niche market, is hindering success. With the loss of the local sector skills council, and the large reliance on businesses to articulate demand, local policy is needed to aid development of networks and partnerships to overcome obstacles. This is very 33
important in terms of addressing the latent demand for skills, as ANT states that for an idea to become reality, a network of heterogeneous elements must be created. This is in addition to SNM, where the network must have a robust articulation of expectations, a broad and deep social network, incorporated with learning processes. Implication for practice Taking into consideration the demands of national microgeneration policy and the targets that need to be reached, local action needs to be swifter. Through this research it has been demonstrated that local contractors need to articulate the demand for skills, although this is limited by policy delay and uncertainty. Greater partnership work will help to alleviate current skills gaps, but it leaves to be seen what future skills gaps will be once the Green Deal and RHI develop. Only at that stage can skills gaps be re-assessed, and demand articulated. Involvement with social housing projects still provides a unique opportunity to develop skills, in addition to solving broader societal issues. If the LA is to take a sustainable approach to the planned city-wide RHI scheme, investment in local skills and local contractors will aid local growth and stability. The success of these plans lies with the success of policy, and the commitment of government to the stable rapid progression towards a low-carbon economy. Addition to literature Through SNM it can be seen that progress has been made in both articulation of expectations and building of social networks, in comparison to past policy, although learning processes are still very much in their infancy. By utilising ANT as a further theory to compliment SNM, it has allowed insight into how the networks around niche and skills development is progressing, and what needs to be done to increase the pace, to meet targets, in particular the addition of non-human actors to network development. Shown in this study is the necessity for a greater focus on networks in niche development. Networks, both pre-existing and new, are a vital component of niche and skills development, as they help overcome both financial and non-financial barriers. The inclusion of a heterogeneous network is also important, as both skills and technology play facilitating roles in both niche and network development. As SNM is still an unfinished research programme, this project highlights the need for a better focus on network building in niches, incorporating both technological and societal influences. Therefore, ANT can be applied in addition to SNM, to facilitate its use as a management tool for future niche development. Limitations Due to the local, city focus, the results from this project can be generalised to some degree for all medium-sized cities within the UK, particularly for those identified by The Work Foundation as 34â&#x20AC;Š
‘enterprise ready’ (Clayton & Morris, 2010). Furthermore, due to the small group of actors who have expertise in this area, the results are limited to the analysis of low-carbon technology niches , both at present and in future, particularly with the domestic RHI launch in 2013.
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7. Appendices (Do not include in word count)
APPENDIX A – Interview prompt sheet 1. When and why was the company/organisation set up?
2. How did policy affect business & skills?
3. How were skills developed, where from?
4. Are there any other groups involved and how?
5. Contact with other groups? Who? How?
6. Facilitators and hindrances to development?
7. Suggestions for policy improvement?
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