August - September 2014 Volume 03 Issue 11
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ontents August • September 2014 Volume 03 Issue 11 Rise In Asset Values Pushes Up Canadians’ Wealth
Bank of Canada Cuts Economic Outlook
Canadian Home Sales Beat Expectations, Surge In June
06
Local Real Estate Boards Give Hint Of A Surging Housing Market
Price Surges In Canada’s Biggest Cities
Vancouver and Toronto Property Prices Start To Percolate Again
10
A Single Hot Spot Is Skewing Canada’s Housing Picture
11-12
Tan Team Listings August-September 2014
Sales and Average Price Up Year-Over-Year In July
18
August Mid-Month Resale Market Figures
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Tan.gazine
Rise In Asset Values
Pushes Up Canadians’ Wealth Canadians saw their net worth climb by nearly 8 per cent last year as real estate and investment values soared, pushing average household wealth levels to a new high and offering a clear indication that many Canadians have put the recent recession far behind them. An analysis of wealth by Environics Analytics shows the average household in Canada had total assets of $564,834 at the end of 2013 and average debt of $122,705, for average net worth of $442,130. Average wealth was up 7.7 per cent from the end of 2012 and 28 per cent from the end of 2007 before the recession began. “Over all, 2013 was a very good year for Canadian balance sheets,” said Peter Miron, senior research associate at Environics Analytics. Increasing real estate values are continuing to play a key role in wealth gains, but the analysis shows that gains on investments are becoming a more important component in wealth. Investments climbed by 10.4 per cent last year to $145,348 per household on average, while assets in other savings vehicles such as bank accounts or term deposits climbed by 2.2 per cent to $83,652 per household. The investment gains came as Canadian and U.S. markets posted strong returns, increasing the value of shares and 4 | tanteam.com
Janet McFarland @ The Globe & Mail
August 11, 2014
mutual funds, which are widely held by many Canadians. Mr. Miron said some of the increase in investment wealth was also due to higher savings rates with more new money going into investments as household finances improved and there was greater optimism about potential investment returns. The WealthScapes analysis is based on 121 financial and investments statistics from a variety of sources, including Statistics Canada and the Bank of Canada. It focuses on the key wealth categories of real estate and financial assets, but does not paint a complete picture of wealth in Canada because it does not include wealth held in pension plans, insurance policies and physical assets such as vehicles or art. The analysis shows Albertans posted the greatest
gains last year with average household wealth increasing by 10 per cent, causing the province to leapfrog over Ontario into second place behind British Columbia. B.C. residents had an average net worth of $591,047 last year, followed by Alberta at $531,067 and Ontario at $523,969. Mr. Miron said B.C. has led the country in wealth in the seven years since Environics launched its analysis, but Alberta could move into top spot in future years because of its faster pace of growth. B.C. recorded the slowest growth in wealth of any province last year, but the key variable in future growth will be real estate prices. “Real estate is where you really see the volatility, especially between provinces and between years,” Mr. Miron said. In keeping with the provincial trend, the data also
Tan.gazine shows the wealth gap is shrinking between Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary, which respectively posted average household wealth of $710,095, $693,652 and $680,377 in 2013 due largely to the value of real estate in the three expensive markets. For the first time, the analysis for 2013 also looked at the national statistics broken into five wealth tiers, showing that the richest 20 per cent of Canadians saw their net worth climb by 8.1 per cent in 2013. However, the lowest 20 per cent posted even greater wealth gains of 8.7 per cent last year, which Mr. Miron said may be due to increasing real estate values in smaller urban markets, such as Sudbury, Ont., that have not previously had the gains seen in cities such as
Toronto and Vancouver. Mr. Miron said the most baffling trend in 2013 was seen in St. John’s, which posted the highest growth in liquid savings and investment assets among Canada’s 20 largest cities, while also recording the highest growth in household debt. He said he has not seen a similar trend in seven years of compiling the data, suggesting it could be a sign of high optimism about future income security if people are borrowing more while also saving more. “You don’t usually see liquid assets and debt increasing at the same time. It’s an enigma,” he said. The analysis also showed the growth in household debt last year was entirely due to a 3.3 per
Bank of Canada
David Parkinson @ The Globe & Mail
Cuts Economic Outlook The Bank of Canada continued to hold the line on interest rates despite the recent acceleration in inflation, but adjusted its inflation outlook Wednesday to acknowledge the faster-than-expected rise in Canadian consumer prices. The central bank also said it expects Canada’s economy to return to full capacity a bit later than previously projected. The Canadian dollar dipped immediately after Governor Stephen Poloz and his colleagues released their statement. In its regularly scheduled interest-rate policy statement, the central bank, as expected, left its key policy interest rate unchanged at 1 per cent, where it has held steady for nearly four years. But in its quarterly Monetary Policy Report, released at the same time, the bank raised its consumer price index inflation projection to 2.1 per cent for the just-ended second quarter and 2 per cent
cent increase in mortgage debt, while consumer debt such as credit cards and other loans was unchanged from 2012, which suggests growing restraint about taking on new debt. Mr. Miron said it is also encouraging to see mortgage debt growing a lower pace than real estate values, which means many people are unwilling to ratchet up borrowing to match the pace of growth in house prices. Previously, he said mortgage debt was growing faster than real estate values. “That’s actually a pretty positive sign in the grand scheme of things,” he said. “That’s a very unusual thing – we haven’t seen that happen before.”
July 16, 2014
for the third quarter, from an earlier forecast of 1.6 per cent and 1.8 per. It also raised estimates for its so-called “core” inflation measure – which excludes some of the most volatile components of the CPI, and is considered a better gauge of underlying inflation pressures in the broad economy – to 1.6 per cent in the second quarter and 1.7 per cent in the third quarter, from 1.2 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively, in the April report. Nevertheless, slightly slower-than-expected economic growth has prompted the central bank to move back its expectation for when that core measure will reach 2 per cent – the inflation target the bank relies on as its guide for setting interest rates. It now projects the core measure will stabilize at 2 per cent third quarter of 2016, rather than its previous call of the 2016 first quarter. tanteam.com | 5
Tan.gazine
Canadian Home Sales
Beat Expectations, Surge In June Canada’s housing market continued to flex its muscles in June, with the number of existing homes that changed hands coming in 11.2 per cent higher than a year earlier. Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and Hamilton were among the markets that showed the most strength. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, sales rose 0.8 per cent from May, which had also been a strong month, according according to the Canadian Real Estate Association, which represents the nation’s realtors and tracks sales by way of the Multiple Listing Service. Sales have now risen for five months in a row, to their highest level since March 2010, in the wake of a winter slump which had been caused by unusually bad weather. Prior to the data being released, Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavcic had been expecting sales to rise 7.5 per cent from a year earlier. And even that would have been a strong showing, one that he attributed to pent-up demand after the harsh winter as well as low mortgage rates. It’s not only sales that are rising. The average sale price of a home in the country was up 6.9 per cent from a year earlier, to $413,215. Averages can be
6 | tanteam.com
Tara Perkins @ The Globe & Mail
July 15, 2014
distorted, for example by a higher number of sales in a pricier city. Factoring the Toronto and Vancouver areas out of the equation, the average price rose 5.2 per cent to $336,164, CREA said. The MLS Home Price Index, which seeks to create a more apples-to-apples comparison of home prices than the average, was up 5.4 per cent, a faster pace than in recent months. But even then, “strong price growth is hardly a nationwide phenomenon,” Mr. Kavcic wrote in a research note. “In fact, outside of Calgary (hot economy and surging demand) and the detached side of the Toronto market (very tight supply), price growth looks much more tame.” He added that he doesn’t think the market should be overly concerning to policy-makers at the moment. Earlier this week, Fitch Ratings reiterated its opinion that Canadian home prices are about 20 per cent overvalued in real terms. “We believe high household debt relative to disposable income has made the market more susceptible to market stresses like unemployment or interest rate increases,” the rating agency said.
Tan.gazine
Local Real Estate Boards Give Hint
Of A Surging Housing Market Canada’s housing market is again proving to be hotter than economists expected. The latest data on sales of existing homes across the country will be released by the Canadian Real Estate Board next week. But a number of local real estate boards have made their statistics available in recent days and the picture they paint is generally one of strength, especially in the highly-populated markets of Toronto and Vancouver. That comes as the housing market has been gaining steam in the wake of a sluggish winter during which unusually cold weather depressed sales. The comeback has been strong enough that TorontoDominion Bank’s economics department upgraded its expectations last week for home sales and prices this year – although it continues to predict that “the Canadian housing market will cool over the medium term. With five-year mortgage rates at record lows, the number of existing homes that sold in May shot up well above the 10-year average for the month, and “more strength may be bubbling under the surface,” TD economist Diana Petramala wrote in a research note. Indeed, here’s a rundown of some of the data from local
Tara Perkins @ The Globe & Mail
June 30, 2014
boards that’s already available for June: Montreal – Sales of existing homes in the Montreal area were 3 per cent higher than a year earlier. That marks the first year-over-year increase in sales in nine months. – Sales of single-family homes were up by 2 per cent, while sales of condos were up 8 per cent. – Sales on the Island of Montreal rose 10 per cent and those on the South Shore were up 2 per cent. Sales in Laval were down 2 per cent, on the North Shore 4 per cent lower, and in VaudreuilSoulanges they fell 1 per cent.
family home rose 2 per cent to $291,000. That of condos was essentially flat at $234,525 Toronto – Sales were up 15.4 per cent from a year earlier. A total of 10,180 homes changed hands over the Multiple Listing Service, well above the 10-year average for the month of 9,295. – The average selling price rose 7.4 per cent to $568,953. – The average number of days that a home is on the market before selling dropped to 22 days from 24 a year earlier. – Active listings fell 6.8 per cent.
– The median price of a single-
tanteam.com | 7
Tan.gazine
Price Surges in Canada’s Biggest Cities Mask an Otherwise Temperate National Market With the harsh winter now a fading memory, the average price of a home in Canada increased between 3.9 and 5.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2014. Prices are expected to increase steadily for the balance of the year, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast released today. According to the survey, price increases were posted across housing types, with detached bungalows seeing the highest year-over-year gains, rising 5.2 per cent to an average price of $406,454. Meanwhile, standard two-storey homes rose 5.1 per cent year-over-year to $440,972, while standard condominiums posted gains of 3.9 per cent to $258,501.
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A closer look at Canada’s residential real estate market points to a tale of two city types, in which big city housing activity represents a small part of the picture but accounts for a large part of the gains in national average home prices. The shortage of detached single-family houses once again led to significant price growth in Toronto. In Calgary, new listings could not keep up with strong demand from a briskly expanding workforce, driving near double-digit price growth. Vancouver, which just last year was seeing year-over-year price declines, is now posting mid-single digit appreciation in the detached home categories, pushing regional price averages up to record heights. While the Montreal market
recorded lower price gains than its large metropolitan counterparts, real estate demand experienced a renewed thrust following the provincial election in April with signs of a brighter market ahead for the sector. In contrast, smaller city markets are seeing far more moderate house price gains. In Ontario, regions outside Toronto such as London posted year-over-year price increases of 2.2 and 2.0 per cent for detached bungalows and standard two-storey homes, respectively, while Ottawa remained relatively flat at 1.3 and 0.8 per cent in the same categories. In Edmonton, the price of a detached bungalow remained essentially flat, dropping 0.2 per
Tan.gazine “Royal LePage forecasts steady price gains for the full year, inventory shortages in large cities continue” cent year-over-year, while standard two-storey homes rose 3.8 per cent, compared to Calgary’s 9.7 and 7.9 per cent increases in the same categories. In British Columbia’s Okanagan region, Kelowna saw a 2.8 per cent rise in the price of detached bungalows compared to Vancouver’s 5.2 per cent rise in the same category. “Chronic supply shortages are driving price spikes in Canada’s major cities, masking otherwise moderate home price appreciation nationally,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive of Royal LePage. “While a widening affordability gap in Canada’s largest urban centres is characterizing the national market Canadians read about daily, year-over-year house price increases in most regions of the country are presently tracking below the historical average.” Looking ahead at the remainder of 2014, Royal LePage is projecting that the national average house price will increase at 5.1% per cent for the full-year. “Compared to other major forecasts, our year-beginning national outlook predicted a higher level of 2014 average price appreciation, yet supply constraints
in a handful of our largest cities necessitate a revision upwards,” noted Soper. “Looking ahead to 2015, we expect house prices to track more closely to the rate of general economic growth. That is, we see price increases in Canada’s largest cities moderating, just as our smaller city markets should see a lift.” Canada’s low interest rate environment coupled with a stable job market continues to support the country’s residential real estate sector across all housing types. Core inflation remains within policy guidelines, creeping up three-tenths of a point to 1.7 per cent in June. The U.S. economy, Canada’s primary export market, continues to gather strength, posting impressive job growth numbers in recent months. The condominium segment, which has been the target of scrutiny in recent months in cities such as Toronto and Vancouver has shown continued resilience, supported by shifting
Susan Pigg @ The Toronto Star
July 09, 2014
consumer preferences and enduring demand. With economic strength comes a call from some quarters for further federal government policy intervention to cool the market. “Casual market observers have renewed calls for policy intervention to cool Canada’s real estate industry. We have supported most of the recent federal regulatory changes aimed at managing housing demand,” stated Soper. “At this time, we feel a move to further restrict access to home ownership is not warranted. Such policy would inevitably operate as a blunt instrument, causing unintended hardship to young Canadian homebuyers and the millions living outside a handful of our biggest cities.”
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Tan.gazine
Vancouver and Toronto Property Prices Start to Percolate Again Parts of the Canadian housing market that most worried policy makers are now seeing significant price gains. Back when former finance minister Jim Flaherty moved to take some steam out of the market in mid-2012, he and economists expressed an especially high level of concern about two key areas: Vancouver, which had the most overvalued home prices in the country, and condos in Toronto, which were rapidly multiplying. The cautionary comments from Mr. Flaherty and others, coupled with mortgage insurance rule changes that he imposed, fuelled a deceleration in both areas. But, as Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavcic writes in a research note, they’re back. “Two pockets of the Canadian housing market that were all but left for dead are now seeing prices gain
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Tara Perkins @ The Globe & Mail
July 17, 2014
momentum in a major way,” Mr. Kavcic writes. “In Vancouver, which endured a mild correction from mid-2012 through 2013, prices are up 5.2 per cent year over year. Toronto condo prices are now up 4.4 per cent year over year, the strongest clip in 2.5 years, despite concerns about oversupply (there are a lofty 57,000 units currently under construction versus just 7,000 [detached homes]). “Note that over the past six months, prices in both of these markets have jumped more than 8 per cent annualized, and nobody will pretend that’s a rate sustainable for long from current levels,” he adds. A caveat: Mr. Kavcic is using price data from the Canadian Real Estate Board’s home price index. It doesn’t include newly-built homes, which are a major factor in Toronto’s ever-expanding condo market. Some observers have said that existing condos in the city appear to be performing better than those that are just coming on the market. “The new condo market is increasingly finding it more difficult to compete with condos on the resale market, which are both larger and cheaper,” economists at Toronto-Dominion Bank said in a research note this spring. According to RealNet Canada Inc., the index price of a new condo in Toronto has risen by just 1 per cent over the past year.
Tan.gazine
A Single Hot Spot Is Skewing Canada’s Housing Picture
The problem with trying to gauge the heat of Canada’s housing market is that it depends on where you insert the thermometer. Over all, the market still looks unsustainably warm, but the nationwide numbers are being skewed big-time by scorchingly hot Calgary. If we remove this one city from the equation, the national housing landscape actually looks quite refreshingly cool. Consider Thursday’s new-home price report from Statistics Canada. Nationally, the country’s prices for newly built houses were up 0.1 per cent in May from April, and up 1.5 per cent from a year earlier. Not exactly gangbuster gains, but still showing an upward trajectory for housing prices that many feel have run up too far for too long. But prices in Calgary, which makes up just over 12 per cent of Statscan’s new-home price index, jumped 0.8 per cent in the month, and were up 7.6 per cent year over year – far and away the biggest gains for any of the 21 metropolitan areas tracked by the index. (On an annual basis, nowhere else even reached 3 per cent.) If you exclude Calgary from the calculation, new-home prices in the rest of the country didn’t rise at all in April, and were up just 0.6 per cent from a year earlier – pretty tepid stuff. The surprisingly strong housing starts report from earlier this week showed much the same. National starts were running at an annualized clip of 198,000 in June – up slightly from May, and the highest in eight months. But again, Calgary was the main driver, topping 28,000 annualized in June, more than any other city in the country, and more than double the city’s May pace.
David Parkinson @ Globe Advisor
July 11, 2014
If Calgary had merely matched its average monthly rate of starts for the previous six months (which was, it should be noted, still far higher than its average for the six previous months, or the six months before that), the national housing start number would have been 182,000 – a more sustainable long-term pace that roughly matches annual demographic formation of new households. In the first half of 2014, Calgary’s total housing starts are up 67 per cent from a year earlier (including an astounding 141per-cent jump in condo starts); excluding Calgary, the rest of Canada’s housing starts are down 0.6 per cent. There’s a similar tale in the national building permits data, also released this week. Residential permits nationwide were up 9.5 per cent in May from April – but Calgary’s permits surged 35 per cent. For the year to date, Canada’s residential permits are virtually flat with the same period last year; Calgary’s are up 13 per cent, with the highest dollarvalue increase of any urban centre in the country. (Alberta’s other major city, Edmonton, is second.) So, much like the country’s economy as a whole, the housing market is operating at two speeds – one for booming Alberta (where Calgary is the centre of the thriving oil business), and one for much of the
Tan.gazine
-Continued from previous page
rest of the country, where growth is downright sedate. We’ve seen this pattern in gross domestic product, in employment and now in housing. While it’s certainly comforting to see that housing across the majority of the country is undergoing a healthy cooling, localized housing bubbles can nevertheless pose a serious risk to a national economy. But Robert Kavcic, senior economist at Bank of
12 | tanteam.com
Montreal, doesn’t see Calgary and Alberta as a bubble threat. He said this week that the busy housing market is justified, given Alberta’s relatively thin housing supply and strong employment growth that is luring more people to the province. That should support continued construction and price growth, particularly in Calgary, for a while yet.
Tan.gazine
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Tan.gazine Sales and Average Price Up Year-Over-Year in July In July, the median price was $550,700 from the $512,286 recorded during July of 2013 TORONTO, August 7, 2014 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington reported strong year-over-year growth for July 2014 sales and the average selling price. Sales reported by TREB Members through the TorontoMLS system were up by 10 per cent to 9,198. This was the second-best July sales result on record. “The second half of 2014 started where the first half left off, with very strong demand for the diversity of affordable home ownership options in the Greater Toronto Area. Sales were up strongly for most major home types and market conditions actually tightened, with sales growth outpacing listings growth. The result was average price growth well-above the rate of inflation,” said Mr. Etherington.
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The average selling price for July 2014 sales was $550,700 – up by 7.5 per cent compared to July 2013. The strongest rate of price growth was reported for the detached market segment in the City of Toronto, with a year-over-year change of 11 per cent. The better-supplied condominium apartment segment experienced average price growth of 5.3 per cent for the GTA as a whole. “Strong demand for ownership housing will underpin robust average price increases for the remainder of 2014. In fact, the pace of price growth that we have experienced over the past year will continue until growth in listings outpaces growth in sales for a sustained period of time,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
Tan.gazine Greater Toronto REALTORS® Report August 2014 Mid-Month Resale Market Figures TORONTO, August 18, 2014 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced mid-month figures for August 2014 that point to continued strength in the GTA housing market. There were 3,504 sales reported through the TorontoMLS system during the first 14 days of August. This result was up by 7.6 per cent compared to the same period in August 2013. “Sales were up strongly for all major home types across the GTA through the first two weeks of August. This means that many different types of buyers were active in the marketplace, including first-time buyers purchasing newly listed condominium apartments and existing homeowners changing their housing situation to meet their current needs,” said Mr. Etherington. Tight market conditions, especially for
detached and semi-detached houses, drove strong price growth in the first half of August. The overall average selling price was up by 9.4 per cent year-over-year to $538,530. The strongest price growth was experienced in the detached market segment, with the average detached price up by 12.3 per cent year-over-year. “During the first 14 days of August, the number of home sales grew at a faster pace year-over-year compared to the number of homes listed for sale. This means that competition between buyers increased relative to the same period last year, which explains the continuation of very strong average price growth in the GTA,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.
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