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ontents December 2014 • January 2015 Volume 04 Issue 01 An Excess of “Expertsâ€? Slows The Toronto Real Estate Market
Thinking of Downsizing To a Condo or Rental? Think Again
37 Kirkhaven Way - It’s Not Just Good Looking, It’s Comfortably Practical
08-09
Home Buying a “Stretch� In Toronto, No Holding Back In Vancouver
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Residential Properties Can Bring A Steady Pay Off
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Toronto Condo Market Sees One of It’s Best Years, Agency Says
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Sales and Average Price Growth Continued In November 2014
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Tan.gazine
An Excess of ‘Experts’ Slows
7KH 7RURQWR 5HDO (VWDWH 0DUNHW The traditional seasonal slowdown in Toronto’s real estate market appears to have arrived a little early this year. Most years, the housing market calms in December. Listings fall off and prospective buyers are distracted by the holidays. Thomas Neal, a real estate agent with Royal LePage Estate Realty in the Beaches, began to feel a little less harried about mid-November. “You can always tell when listings are down because the number of flyers goes up,” Mr. Neal says. Scant listings means that real estate agents are trying to draw potential sellers by stuffing flyers into their mailboxes. Ricky Chadha, also with Royal LePage Estate Realty, noticed that listings suddenly
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dropped off in mid-November. He thinks sellers are trying to time the market more than they did in the past. Some have decided it’s time to cash in and they want to make the most of it. “I just feel like people are being too strategic. Everyone’s an expert,” he says. “More often than not, everyone’s second hobby is real estate.” Mr. Chadha has a sense that people in real estate-obsessed Toronto are frequently online looking at the market. If a house in their neighbourhood sells, they ant to know how much their neighbour got. They pop into open houses even when they’re not in the market. But Mr. Chadha says some of those sellers would be better off listing when no one else does. He likens it to the Black Friday effect – i.e., the best deals are not
actually on Black Friday. “If everyone’s flooding the market during those peak times, there’s the potential to backfire.” Potential buyers are frustrated at the moment because there’s little to look at, he adds. He notes that the lack of listings is noticeable in all parts of the Greater Toronto Area. Mr. Neal says the quiet period seems to have arrived a little earlier this year than in the last couple of fall markets. “The buyers seemed to have other things on their mind – maybe the election had something to do with it,” he says of the aftermath of the Toronto mayoralty race. Tight listings have allowed prices to rise because buyers have
Tan.gazine Carolyn Ireland @ The Globe & Mail
December 04, 2014
to compete for the few houses available. Still, many houses have been selling without any competition at all, Mr. Neal says. The properties that do attract multiple bidders tend to be under-priced to begin with. He notes that some higher-end properties in the Beaches have been languishing. Often if a property above the $2-million mark hasn’t sold by the beginning of December, the homeowner will pull it off the market and list again in the spring. Houses that appeal to first-time buyers, meanwhile, still sell quickly. “The $600,000 price range is still flying off the shelves if you put it out there.” Building lots are also still
selling briskly, he says, because builders will often sever a wide lot and put up two new houses. He recently heard of one lot listing with an asking price below $400,000 that sold for $650,000. Throughout October and November, agents have been reporting erratic sales activity. “It’s a weekly market,” Mr. Neal says. “Some weeks it goes and some weeks it’s really quiet.” Mr. Neal is getting calls to evaluate houses for listing but those sellers don’t plan to put out the for sale sign until the spring. “I’ve been pricing properties with people for February and March.” As for the outlook for 2015, Mr. Neal points to expectations among some economists that a stronger U.S. economy will lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next year. Higher interest rates south of the border would likely have an impact in Canada as well.
If rates start rising, sales of real estate could spike as people rush to get into the market. But that rush could then be followed by a lag. Still, for buyers trying to get into the market, a bit of a slowdown could be welcome. “It might also give people a chance because there won’t be that rabid bidding,” he says.
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Tan.gazine
Thinking of Downsizing
To a Condo or Rental? Think Again Hang onto your houses, baby boomers. An expert on retirement says you’ll be happier than if you move to a condo or rent. “I get a lot of questions about retirement because of my background as an academic actuary,” said Rob Brown, now retired in Victoria after decades teaching at the University of Waterloo. “People ask, what’s your way to achieve retirement security? I say that one way is to have a home that is debt-free in retirement. That’s a huge step in the right direction.” We talk a lot about the
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Rob Carrick @ The Globe & Mail
November 27, 2014
importance of saving money for retirement, about planning for a long life and about the benefits of working past the normal retirement age. But the matter of what to do with your house is also important, especially if you’ve owned for decades and are sitting on a massive amount of home equity. There are two postretirement approaches to housing. One is to get out of houses entirely, either by buying a condo or renting. The other is to either stay in the family home, or downsize to something smaller. Mr. Brown likes
owning a house. “My attitude toward retirement is to try and achieve financial security,” he said. “That means keeping the volatility down and knowing what you’re going to have each month both in terms of income and expenses to a fairly high degree. The fixed expenses of running a house are fairly predictable once your mortgage is paid off, with property tax and utility-cost increases being your biggest unknown. But what about maintenance costs and upkeep? Mr. Brown argues that these expenses are less
Tan.gazine
volatile than rental costs for the renter, and maintenance fees for the condo owner. He may have a point about condo fees. Talk to condo owners and you’re bound to hear stories about annual cost increases well above inflation. Worse are the special assessments for $20,000, $30,000 or even $40,000-plus to address exceptional costs not covered by monthly fees. I’m not sure about Mr. Brown’s argument that home ownership costs are less volatile than rents, but he’s certainly right about one thing. When you own a home, your shelter needs are met and there are no worries about having to find a new rental unit because your landlord is selling. “Owning a house is a little bit more under my control and, whenever I’m in control, that’s within the world of being secure,” Mr. Brown said. “The feeling of security is extremely important.” Actuaries are numbers people and Mr. Brown is one of the country’s eminent practitioners. He has advised the Ontario government on pension matters and is currently president of the International Actuarial Association. But in addressing home ownership, Mr. Brown admits he’s gone a bit off script by talking up the emotional benefits. For him, it’s all about the satisfaction of owning a place that provides “a roof over my head and a hot shower in the morning.” Mind you, Mr. Brown also has some economic reasons for keeping your house. For one thing, it’s every person’s hedge against
inflation. Long term, expect houses to rise in price at roughly the same rate as the cost of living. Houses can also be turned into cash through reverse mortgages or home equity lines of credit, Mr. Brown said. While both have drawbacks, they do allow homeowners to convert a measured amount of equity in their homes into cash that can be used toward exceptional expenses such as recovery from an illness. When you finally do sell your home, it becomes a block of money that can finance the next phase of your life. Mr. Brown’s mother moved into a retirement residence at age 93. “The equity she got when she sold her home could keep her going a whole long time in that residence.” A critical point in Mr. Brown’s thinking about home ownership in retirement is that a house is owned debt-free. This comes back to his argument about control. If you owe money on a mortgage, you’re vulnerable to having your payments increase as a result of rising interest rates. Mr. Brown believes security in retirement is so important that he’s trying to arrange funding for a study on whether it actually contributes to longer lives. He’d like to compare the lifespans of people with defined benefit pensions – benefits for life and thus very secure – and defined contribution plans. They’re less secure because they’re subject to market returns and the rate you withdraw money over the years.
Could owning a house help you live longer? If shovelling snow from your driveway doesn’t get you, maybe so. ---------------How much for maintenance? Actuary Rob Brown believes retirees are more financially secure when they own their own home, even with home maintenance and upkeep to contend with. Here are methods of estimating the ongoing costs of looking after a house: By value: On average, these costs will amount to at least 1 per cent of the value of your home per year. By size: $1 in annual maintenance per square foot, on average. By age and build quality: Older houses and those built with lower quality materials or workmanship need higher estimates. By major systems: How new are the roof, furnace, driveway, electrical wiring, plumbing and so forth?
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Home Buying a ‘Stretch’ in Toronto
No Holding Back In Vancouver Affordability eases for some. Owning a home still appears be out of reach for many people in Toronto, but sky-high prices don’t seem to be stopping buyers in Vancouver. And in Calgary, the other of Canada’s three hot cities, it’s full steam ahead. Across the country, home affordability eased slightly in the third quarter of the year, according to a Royal Bank of Canada study released today. But Canada, of course, isn’t just one housing market given the wide divergence. “Carrying the costs of ownership became a little lighter for the majority of housing types thanks to small reductions in utility costs in many parts of the country, low and steady interest rates, and broadly rising household income,” RBC chief economist Craig Wright and senior economist Robert
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Hogue said in today’s report. “Even markets such as Toronto, where affordability eroded persistently in the past four years, saw relief,” they said in the study, which looks at prices and income, among other things. “The same could not be said for Canada’s other currently ‘hot’ markets, Vancouver and Calgary,” they added, though they noted that affordability “remains quite attractive” in the latter. The pressures are largely in Toronto, where affordability is “the most stretched in Canada,” and Vancouver, where there are “extreme conditions.” Toronto got some relief but “owning a home – especially a single-detached home – at market price still appears to be a stretch for a typical household in the area,” said Mr. Wright and Mr. Hogue. “That being said, any affordability stress does not seem to bother homebuyers, however.
Michael Babad @ The Globe & Mail
December 01, 2014
Toronto-area home resales continued to power ahead in the third quarter.” Where two-story houses are concerned, affordability eased by 1.1 percentage points. For condos, less so. In Vancouver, in turn, affordability has been “severely strained” for almost 10 years, but that doesn’t seem to be “holding back homebuyers in any significant way.” Resales, they said, topped the 10-year average this year, rebounding from the last two years, leading to a market where “sellers once again hold the upper hand in setting prices.” And then there’s Calgary, Canada’s hottest market, where everyone has a lot of money, anyway, so why not? “Calgary prices continue to rise at the fastest pace in Canada (between 9 per cent and 12 per cent year over year depending on the housing type),” said the RBC economists. “Housing affordability deteriorated in the third quarter; however, it remained quite attractive from a historical perspective and in comparison to other Canadian cities.” The International Monetary Fund, too, weighed in today on Canada’s real estate market, saying in its look at the economy that housing “regained momentum,” though with distinctions across the country.
Tan.gazine It, too, highlighted the “brisk activity” in Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary, and welcomed new measures to bolster mortgage insurance. “Housing demand from household formation and
population growth, combined with supply-side constraints from land-use policies and geographical factors, may partly explain fundamental strength in these major real estate markets,” the IMF added.
Misreading Canada's Housing Market
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Don’t fret, study says: Amid the angst over Canada’s housing market, a new study suggests there’s no “significant overbuilding.” That’s because demand for housing isn’t being measured properly, today’s report from CIBC World Markets found. “Ask any real estate developer in any of Canada’s major cities about the risk of overbuilding, and the first line of defence would be immigration and its critical role in supporting demand,” said economists Benjamin Tal and Nick Exarhos. “It turns out that at least for now, this claim is more valid than widely believed,” they added. “Not only has the rising share of young immigrants lifted demand for housing, but also official population projections understate the actual number of non-permanent residents in the country by close to 100,000.” New immigrants, said Mr. Tal and Mr. Exarhos, now account for about 70 per cent of Canada’s population growth. And half of them are in the 25-44 age group, meaning they’re the most likely to
start having kids, and thus driving the increase in new households. “In fact, despite some concerns of overbuilding in the current housing boom, the ratio of housing starts to household formation is not far from its long-run average of 1.03,” the study said. “The broadly in-line aggregate trend in Canada’s homebuilding means that the eventual wind-down in the current boom won’t have to be as dramatic as feared by some.” The Bank of Canada and others have pointed to the hot markets of Alberta, Ontario and British Columbia. But Toronto has cooled and Vancouver has been “broadly flat” for the past years, with construction starts driving higher only in Calgary. The picture “might be even better than perceived,” the economists said, because non-permanent residents are students, temporary workers and refugees. That group is growing rapidly but, apparently, isn’t being measured properly where household formation is concerned, and thus the “appropriate level” of
“Across market segments, single-family homes are a major source of price increases, and there are signs of overvaluation, especially associated with high-end buyers (reflected by uninsured mortgage credit growth).”
Michael Babad @ The Globe & Mail
November 19, 2014
homebuilding. “Many researchers” are using the 2011 census as their base, but that, the economists said, gives a false picture of household formation. Having said that, it’s going to slow. “Still, our evidence that recent demographic demand for housing has been undercounted suggests that there has been no significant overbuilding,” Mr. Tal and Mr. Exarhos said, projecting that housing starts will average 190,000 annually for the next couple of years, or some 10,000 more than CIBC’s previous forecast.
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Tan.gazine
Residential Property &DQ %ULQJ $ 6WHDG\ 3D\ 2II When Diane Leahy decided to become a do-it-yourself investor, she looked for a winning strategy and found that there’s no place like home. “We became landlords in 1993, starting with our personal residence,” says Ms. Leahy, an airline service director who lives with her paramedic husband, Mark Halden, and their two teenaged sons in Toronto. “I’m probably the poster child for property investors.” For more than two decades, Ms. Leahy has followed a sometimes
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risky but lucrative self-investment strategy, buying, selling and managing residential properties in Ontario and Western Canada. She and her husband started by taking in a tenant at their first home in Toronto. “Our first experience was a nightmare,” she says. Undaunted, Ms. Leahy kept trying, while her husband concentrated on his paramedic work. Right now Ms. Leahy holds four residential properties, or “doors” as she calls them, in Edmonton, Fort McMurray, Alta., Orillia, Ont., and Cornwall, Ont.
David Israelson @ The Globe & Mail
October 31, 2014
“We invest in cash flowing properties based on economic fundamentals,” she says. The fundamentals that matter most to her are mortgage interest rates, cities or towns where average incomes are going up, communities that are growing and where there is strong demand for housing. (The Cornwall property is an exception, though it also has been a good investment, she says.) As a do-it-yourself investor, Ms. Leahy says she has always preferred residential property to securities. “Real estate is a tangible asset that creates wealth and allows
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me to sleep at night. Some say it’s not liquid enough, but I say: How liquid were your stocks or mutual funds during the crash [in 2008]?” But DIY real estate is not easy. While it can bring a steady payoff, becoming a professional property owner requires patience and a strong understanding of both economic trends and property markets, Ms. Leahy warns. “I create strategies to achieve my goals,” she says. “Regardless of your level of knowledge when entering this asset class you must get educated.” Ms. Leahy started by reading a book; then she joined an organization called the Real Estate Investment Network (REIN), whose members are like-minded aspiring property investors. Real estate can indeed be fertile territory for the DIYer, but it needs to be approached with a healthy attitude and an understanding that the profits may not come quickly, agrees Ben Myers, senior vice-president of market research and analytics for Fortress Real Developments in Richmond Hill, Ont. “The key for investors is to look at investing over the long term,” says Mr. Myers, who lectures at REIN events. “They should not be paying attention to the short-term fluctuations in prices; they should look at longer-term price trends.” Mr. Myers has just released Fortress’s mid-year analysis of the
Canadian housing market. Prospective investors should pay less attention to nationwide market trends and more to what is happening in particular regions, he says. “Residential real estate is primarily shaped by local market conditions at a Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) or regional level, with the biggest influencers being employment and immigration levels,” his new report says. It’s the same view that Ms. Leahy has taken since she started investing in properties. Housing starts, while up this year, are still below the 10-year and 50-year averages. “If you’re investing for the long term, your property is going to go up. For every one of the major markets that I looked at, properties are going up,” he says. Ms. Leahy says she often looks at how a neighbourhood is changing. For example, she will look to see whether better transit is planned for an area, or whether there are good public schools – the latter a sign that young families may be seeking homes. “Our intent was always to look five years ahead at an area,” she says. After stumbling on a book about real estate investing by REIN founding partner Don R. Campbell in 2007, Ms. Leahy says she quickly became hooked and joined the organization, whose fee-paying members can get online advice,
access to experts and learning forums. She says it took her about seven months to learn the fundamentals of real estate investing. Her first investment goal was to earn enough money to be able to “de-triplex” the family home in Toronto’s High Park neighbourhood, turning it into a single-family home. She achieved this, partly by acting as her own general contractor (after taking yet another course in how to do this). Her biggest tips: Study how real estate investing works before you get started, and learn how economic fundamentals work – interest rates, the employment outlook, property taxes and so on. Set a goal – understand why you want to invest in property. Build your strategy around this goal and stick to it. “I didn’t buy these properties to create generational wealth, I bought to raise capital and be mortgage free,” she says.
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Tan.gazine
Toronto Condo Market Sees 2QH RI ,WV %HVW <HDUV $JHQF\ 6D\V As the Bank of Canada and other market watchers keep a wary eye on Toronto housing, condo buyers are out in force. Indeed, the market for new condominiums in Canadaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s biggest city appears headed for one of its best-ever years. Urbanation, which tracks the cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s condo market, said Thursday that both sales and prices for new units climbed in the third quarter of the year. Sales in the quarter rose to 4,753, a level Urbanation said marked the third-best summer, after 2011 and 2007. It also marked a 53-per-cent gain from the 10-year low in the same period of last year. On a rolling basis, condo sellers have sold more than 19,000 units in the year ending in September. â&#x20AC;&#x153;Sales were boosted by a number of highly successful new
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project launches during the quarter, but more importantly by increased absorptions at pre-existing projects,â&#x20AC;? Urbanation said, which means the number of unsold units, from those in pre-construction to those completed, shrank by 11 per cent. Also noteworthy was the fact that the share of condos in development that have already been sold, more than 104,000, rose in the quarter to a record 84 per cent. Average selling prices rose by 3 per cent from a year earlier, to $555 a square foot, while those for unsold units increased by 2 per cent to an average $571. â&#x20AC;&#x153;There is still quite a bit of pent-up demand that came out of the slowdown last year,â&#x20AC;? Urbanation senion vice-president Shaun Hildebrand said in a statement. â&#x20AC;&#x153;Should market confidence continue to hold in spite of the
Michael Babad @ The Globe & Mail
October 30, 2014
recent turmoil in financial markets, this sales momentum will carry into the final months of 2014 and early 2015.â&#x20AC;? Well, thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s the question, isnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t it? Just last week, the Bank of Canada noted that while eastern Canadian housing markets appear headed for a soft landing, those in Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta are still going great guns. By that, the central bank means Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary. The Bank of Canada noted â&#x20AC;&#x153;renewed vigourâ&#x20AC;? in Canadian housing, all of which again raises flags about what the central bank calls household imbalances, or rather swollen debt levels. In the past, under a different governor, the central bank went so far as to threaten a rate hike to cool things down, though the current chief shows no signs of doing that.
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Tan.gazine Sales and Average Price Growth Continued in November In November, the median price was $577,936 from the $538,347 recorded during November of 2013 TORONTO, December 4, 2014 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced that Greater Toronto REALTORS速 reported 6,519 residential transactions through the TorontoMLS system in November 2014. This result was up by 2.6 per cent compared to 6,354 sales reported in November 2013. Through the first 11 months of 2014, total sales amounted to 88,462 - up 6.6 per cent compared to the same period in 2013. While the trend of year-over-year sales growth continued, the supply of listings remained constrained, with active listings at the end of November down in comparison to last year. "Even with a constrained supply of homes for sale in many parts of the Greater Toronto Area, buyers continued to get deals done last month. Households remain upbeat about home ownership because monthly mortgage payments remain affordable relative to accepted lending standards.
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This is coupled with the fact that housing has proven to be a quality long-term investment," stated Mr. Etherington. The average selling price for November transactions was up by 7.4 per cent year-over-year to $577,936. The year-to-date average price was up by 8.4 per cent to $567,198. The MLS(R) Home Price Index Composite Benchmark price for November was up by 7.7 per cent compared to a year earlier. "The robust average price growth experienced throughout 2014 has been fundamentally sound, with demand high relative to supply. Strong competition between buyers has exerted upward pressure on selling prices. Barring a substantial shift in the relationship between sales and listings in the GTA, price growth is expected to continue through 2015," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.
Tan.gazine Greater Toronto REALTORS® Report December 2014 Mid-Month Resale Market Figures TORONTO, December 16, 2014 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced that Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 2,496 sales through the TorontoMLS system during the first 14 days of December 2014. This result was up by 1.9 per cent compared to the same period in December 2013. Over the same period, new listings were down by 1.8 per cent year over year. “Greater Toronto Area households remain upbeat about buying a home, as evidenced by the increase in sales compared to last year. However, many would-be home buyers continue to have problems getting a deal done due to the lack of listings for some home types. The lack of listings has definitely been a drag on sales this year,” said Mr. Etherington.
types, including detached and semi-detached houses and townhouses. The condominium apartment segment of the market has been more balanced due to strong project completions, but there has been enough buyer interest to prompt condo price growth above the rate of inflation,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.
The average selling price for December mid-month transactions was $565,873, which represented a year-over-year increase of 8.6 per cent. Price growth was driven by the detached market segment in the City of Toronto. “Sellers’ market conditions remain in place for low-rise home tanteam.com | 21
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