February - March 2015 Volume 04 Issue 02
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ontents February • March 2015 Volume 04 Issue 02
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Toronto’s Housing Market Gets Off To Surging Start In 2015 Economists largely predicted that Toronto’s housing market would be the main winner from the downturn in oil prices and rock-bottom interest rates and so far the region’s housing market is proving them right.
yearly gain of 6 per cent. January buyers instead flocked to the suburbs, sending sales of condos soaring 23 per cent, while detached home sales jumped 10 per cent. The shift is almost certainly driven by
Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area rose 6.1 per cent in January compared to a year earlier, according to new figures from the Toronto Real Estate Board. Average prices jumped 4.9 per cent even as the region saw a spike in new listings, which rose 9.5 per cent compared to a year earlier. The growth was driven mainly by sales in the outside of the city. Sales of detached and semi-detached houses in Toronto dropped more than 2 per cent, while sales of townhouses fell nearly 10 per cent. Only condo sales saw a
affordability as the average detached home in Toronto sold for nearly $950,000 in January compared to $650,000 outside the city. It’s the second month of strong growth for the region’s housing market even as winter is considered the slowest time of year for home sales. December sales rose by nearly 10 per cent compared to a year earlier while average prices were up 7 per cent. Despite a strong start to the housing market, Toronto is feeling the effects of the broader economic uncertainty
4 | tanteam.com
Tamsin Mcmahon @ The Globe & Mail
February 04, 2015
from falling oil prices and the plummeting loonie. The amount of industrial space leased in the region dropped 25 per cent in January compared to the same time last year, while leased office space fell 3.3 per cent. The sales price of most commercial buildings also dropped across the region, with industrial prices falling 40 per cent to $80 per sq. ft. “On the one hand, we have the potential for the drop in oil prices to impact the Canadian economy as a whole,” Toronto Real Estate Board president Paul Etherington said in a statement. “On the other hand, we have the potential positive impacts of the lower Canadian dollar on exports from southern Ontario. As we move toward the spring, we should have a better indication of the net effects on commercial real estate markets in the GTA.”
The Toronto Real Estate Board
January 15, 2015
Greater Toronto REALTORS® kick off 2015 by providing grants to 60 different shelter-related charities throughout the Greater Toronto Area. “For the past seven consecutive years Greater Toronto REALTORS® have voted overwhelmingly in favour of participating in the Ontario REALTORS Care® Foundation’s ‘Every REALTOR®’ campaign,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington. “The decision, which allowed the Toronto Real Estate Board to donate $485,410 to the Ontario REALTORS Care® Foundation on their behalf, is just one example of our Members’ commitment to fostering quality of life in the communities in which they live and work.” Included among this year’s grant recipients was Habitat for Humanity Greater Toronto Area, which is currently building a home sponsored by Greater Toronto REALTORS® in the York Region municipality of Georgina. Greater Toronto REALTORS® have also participated in the construction of the home, setting one family on the path to a better life. “Our support of Habitat for Humanity Greater
GTA Realtors® Donate
$485,410 To Shelter Charities
Toronto Area reflects the ideal that everyone should have a place to call their own,” said Mr. Etherington. “As REALTORS® we dedicate our lives to helping people achieve this important goal.” Recognizing that young people represent the city’s future, Greater Toronto REALTORS® also support a Children’s Breakfast Program operated in conjunction with the Toronto District School Board’s Toronto Foundation for Student Success. Through sponsorship and volunteerism in the program they work to provide children in need with
graduating high school students in the GTA, to be used towards their post-secondary education. In addition, a Ryerson University student is selected annually to receive a summer work placement and award. “Through the Toronto Real Estate Board, brokerage initiatives and individual volunteerism, Greater Toronto REALTORS® routinely demonstrate that they’re dedicated to helping others, and in today’s globally competitive world, their work to build a better city benefits us all,” said Mr. Etherington.
nutritious breakfasts to sustain their learning throughout every school day. Each year scholarships are also presented to four
tanteam.com | 5
The Biggest Threats To Canada’s Housing Market? Declining Oil Prices, For Starters Royal LePage says the price of a Canadian home is expected to rise by a relatively modest 2.9 per cent on average in 2015 as price appreciation slows across the country. Toronto is expected to lead the pack when it comes to price increases this year, with the realtor saying the average home price in Canada’s largest city is forecast to rise by 4.5 per cent, although that would be well behind last year’s pace.
treal and 0.5 per cent in Halifax among several of the major centres surveyed across the country. The realtor says economic factors, including the plummeting price of oil, are likely to cause home prices to grow at a slower pace, particularly in Western Canada. In 2014, prices for detached bungalows rose the most, up 6.7 per cent on average across the country in the
Vancouver is expected to see the second-biggest average jump in prices, up 2.8 per cent, followed by a 2.4 per cent gain in Calgary, 0.6 per cent in Mon-
fourth quarter compared with a year earlier, followed by an average six per cent gain for two-storey homes and 4.5 per cent for condos.
6 | tanteam.com
Alexandra Posadzki @ Canadian Press
January 14, 2015
Edmonton’s condo market saw the biggest increase, shooting up 12.2 per cent to an average of $250,953 per unit. Prices in Calgary also ballooned, with standard condos shooting up 9.1 per cent year-over-year to an average of $311,644 in the latest quarter. In Toronto, prices of detached bungalows increased by 11.6 per cent from a year ago to an average of $647,535, while prices of two-storey homes advanced 8.6 per cent to an average of $745,062. In Vancouver, the average price of a detached bungalow and of a two-storey home each grew by more than seven per cent, to an average of $1,124,642 and $1,233.182 respectively. Home prices remained relatively flat in Winnipeg and softened in Regina, where the average price of two-storey homes dropped 6.8 per cent year-over-year to $345,000. Royal LePage predicts that prices will continue to accelerate rapidly in Toronto in 2015 for a variety of reasons, among them a surge in demand for Ontario’s exports thanks to the lower loonie and the robust economy south of the border. Labour market trends and unsatisfied demand from prospective homebuyers who
were outbid in 2014 will also fuel higher home prices in the Toronto area. Meanwhile, the sharp decline in the price of oil will slow the growth in home prices in Western Canada, according to the report. “Ultimately the biggest threat to the Canadian housing market is a decline in consumer confidence, which could result from worsened employment prospects or decreased purchasing power, be it real or perceived,” president and chief executive Phil Soper said in a statement.
Susan Pigg @ The Toronto Star
January 07, 2015
“In this light, we will be watching market developments closely in the regions most negatively impacted by oil price declines, such as Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland.” Buyers in western Canadian cities could benefit from lower prices in the short term, but Soper says the trend is unlikely to last. “Over the longer term, we foresee a return to regional home price appreciation that is above both the historical average and national trends in general, when energy markets
recover,” he said. “In the interim, slowed growth in the price of homes will be a welcome sign for many people in the West, especially in pricey markets like Vancouver where first-time buyers have been frustrated by a hyper-competitive market and home prices that have escalated at a feverish pace.”
House sales in GTA Close
House sales across the GTA fell just 326 transactions short of setting a record in 2014, even in the face of a shortage of listings that continues to drive intense bidding wars and helped push up prices 8.4 per cent over 2013. Some 92,867 houses and condos changed hands in 2014. The average selling price hit $566,726, up from $556,602 in December of 2013, according to figures released by the Toronto Real Estate Board Wednesday. The previous sales record was set in 2007, when 93,193 homes were bought and sold across the GTA. The average selling price back then, however, was just $376,236.
To Setting Record, Despite Listings Shortage “The strong price growth we experienced in 2014 can be explained with two words: listings shortage,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s director of market analysis in a statement. “The number of households looking to purchase these home types increased, while the number of homes from which they could choose decreased. This situation resulted in more competition between buyers and more aggressive offers.” In fairness, the year’s strong sales can also be explained with three more words: low interest rates. Those continue to drive sales but remain a wild card for 2015. Housing observ-
ers expect rates could start to climb, albeit most likely slowly, later this year. Some realtors are already predicting a bit of cooling, regardless of rates, simply because of the listings shortages: More people seem to be staying put and opting to do renovations, considering the high costs of moving – Toronto’s double land-transfer tax, real estate and other fees – and the challenges of finding a new place without getting into bidding wars, which have now extended beyond coveted Toronto neighbourhoods and into some 905 areas. The steepest price growth – up 8.3 per cent in December, year over year – was in the town-
tanteam.com | 7
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house sector, as more buyers find themselves priced out of detached homes, which now average $738,334 across the GTA and $934,039 in the highly sought after City of Toronto, according to TREB’s figures. The average sales price of a detached home in the 905 regions was $668,063 in December, up 6.6 per cent year over year. Condos weren’t far behind. Prices were up 5.4 per cent in the City of Toronto, to
10 | tanteam.com
an average of $387,612. That compared to average prices of $300,352 in the 905 regions, up 2.2 per cent from December of 2013. Townhouses, by comparison, now average $434,181 across the GTA and $474,874 in the City of Toronto, making them the most affordable housing type left in the region, next to condos. The average sale price in the 905 regions was $420,105. Sales were up 4.3 per cent.
According to TREB’s figures for December sales, detached house sales were up 9.7 per cent over the same period last year. Semi-detached sales were up 12.9 per cent. The average price of a semi in Toronto was $615,794 in the 416 region and $451,314 in the 905 regions, says TREB.
CBC News
February 05, 2015
CMHC CEO Says Low Rates
Won't Put Stress On Overvalued Housing Market
Canada’s housing market may be “modestly overvalued,” according to the CEO of CMHC, but that’s no reason to fear a painful crash even after last month’s cut in rates. Evan Siddall, CEO of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., says the federal agency's job is to watch for risk factors, but lower rates aren't going to make a big difference. Last month, the Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 per cent, and mortgage rates fell the following week. “What the Bank of Canada was concerned about was weakening in the Canadian economy because of the effect of oil prices. They’re doing us a favour in making sure the economy is growing properly and that’s their job,” Siddall said in an interview with CBC’s The Exchange with Amanda Lang. “Lower rates of course make it cheaper for people to buy houses and we are concerned about that. We’re monitoring it," he added. The drop in rates comes at a time when many analysts believe Canadian housing markets are overvalued. Ratings agency Fitch estimated prices are 20 per
cent too high and even Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz has suggested housing is 10-30 per cent overvalued. “I’m not uncomfortable with a number in that range. We talk about the market being modestly overvalued. I don’t think it leads to a sudden cooling. I think that
Of more concern is the impact of falling oil prices, which could eventually lead to widespread job losses. "The biggest factor for us is a rise of unemployment levels. When people lose their jobs, that’s when they sell houses," Siddall said. He said CMHC is
that kind of overvaluation is normal and the market will correct it the way the market does,” Siddall said. But he added that the lower rates are unlikely to make a large impact on housing prices. “We don’t think a 25 basis point cut, not all of which was passed to consumers, is going to be a big factor,” he said.
“keeping an eye” on employment levels in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. If there is an impact on the market, it won’t be until 12 months down the road, Siddall said and that gives CMHC time to react and adjust its policies. He said arrears on CMHC mortgages are at a low of 0.3 per cent, a testament to
tanteam.com | 11
-Continued from previous page
both the Canadian desire for home ownership and the health of the Canadian housing market. Analysts who suggest the federal housing agency should be privatized are overlooking its role in ensuring Canadian homes were not affected by the 2008 financial crisis, Siddall said. "CMHC is a valuable policy instrument. It’s one of the reasons we had a good crisis in Canada. CMHC played a big part in stabilizing
the market," he said. "The minister of finance has said there is no conversation about privatization that he’s working on or interested in. – I’m paraphrasing – and I think that’s proper policy." CMHC is working with lenders on ways to have banks take on more of the risk of home mortgages, but says he believes current practices are sound. Siddall said there’s little risk to taxpayers.
"Certainly the people whose mortgages we securitize conform to very good lending practices and it’s a requirement of OFSI regulation, so I’m not that worried about their practices in fact and certainly it’s not as aggressive as it was in the U.S. at all. People in Canada should not be concerned about that."
Bank of Canada Lowers Overnight Rate
Target To 3/4 Per Cent Ottawa – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 3/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per cent. This decision is in response to the recent sharp drop in oil prices, which will be negative for growth and underlying inflation in Canada. Inflation has remained close to the 2 per cent target in recent quarters. Core inflation has been temporarily boosted by sector-specific factors and the pass-through effects of the lower Canadian dollar, which are offsetting disinflationary pressures from slack in the economy and competition in the retail sector. Total CPI inflation is starting to reflect the fall in oil prices. Oil’s sharp decline in the past six months is expected to boost global economic growth, especially in the United States, while widening the divergences among economies.
12 | tanteam.com
The Bank of Canada
January 21, 2015
Persistent headwinds from deleveraging and lingering uncertainty will influence the extent to which some oil-importing countries benefit from lower prices. The Bank’s base-case projection assumes oil prices around US$60 per barrel. Prices are currently lower but our belief is that prices over the medium term are likely to be higher. The oil price shock is occurring against a backdrop of solid and more broadly-based growth in Canada in recent quarters. Outside the energy sector, we are beginning to see the anticipated sequence of increased foreign demand, stronger exports, improved business confidence and investment, and employment growth. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the speed with which this sequence will evolve and how it will be affected by the drop in oil prices. Business investment in the energy-producing sector will decline. Canada’s weaker terms of trade will have an adverse impact on incomes and wealth, reducing domes-
tic demand growth. Although there is considerable uncertainty around the outlook, the Bank is projecting real GDP growth will slow to about 1 1/2 per cent and the output gap to widen in the first half of 2015. The negative impact of lower oil prices will gradually be mitigated by a stronger U.S. economy, a weaker Canadian dollar, and the Bank’s monetary policy response. The Bank expects Canada’s economy to gradually strengthen in the second half of this year, with real GDP growth averaging 2.1 per cent in 2015 and 2.4 per cent in 2016. The economy is expected to return to full capacity around the end of 2016, a little later than was expected in October. Weaker oil prices will pull down the inflation profile. Total CPI inflation is projected
to be temporarily below the inflation-control range during 2015, moving back up to target the following year. Underlying inflation will ease in the near term but then return gradually to 2 per cent over the projection horizon. The oil price shock increases both downside risks to the inflation profile and financial stability risks. The Bank’s policy action is intended to provide insurance against these risks, support the sectoral adjustment needed to strengthen investment and growth, and bring the Canadian economy back to full capacity and inflation to target within the projection horizon.
tanteam.com | 13
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Strong Start To 2015 - Market Watch In January, the median price was $552,575 from the $526,965 recorded during January of 2014 TORONTO, February 4, 2015 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced a strong start to 2015, with robust year-over-year sales and average price growth in January. Greater Toronto Area REALTORS速 reported 4,355 home sales through the TorontoMLS system during the first month of the year. This result represented a 6.1 per cent increase over January 2014. During the same period, new listings were up by 9.5 per cent. "The January results represented good news on multiple fronts. First, strong sales growth suggests home buyers continue to see housing as a quality long-term investment, despite the recent period of economic uncertainty. Second, the fact that new listings grew at a faster pace than sales suggests that it has become easier for some people to find a home
18 | tanteam.com
that meets their needs," said Mr. Etherington. The average selling price for January 2015 home sales was up by 4.9 per cent year-over-year to $552,575. The MLS速 Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark was up by 7.5 percent compared to January 2014. "Home price growth is forecast to continue in 2015. Lower borrowing costs will largely mitigate price growth this year, which means affordability will remain in check. The strongest rates of price growth will be experienced for low-rise home types, including singles, semis and town houses. However, robust end-user demand for condo apartments will result in above-inflation price growth in the high-rise segment as well," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.
Greater Toronto REALTORS® Report February 2015 Mid-Month Resale Market Figures Ottawa – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 3/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per cent. This decision is in response to the recent sharp drop in oil prices, which will be negative for growth and underlying inflation in Canada. Inflation has remained close to the 2 per cent target in recent quarters. Core inflation has been temporarily boosted by sector-specific factors and the pass-through effects of the lower Canadian dollar, which are offsetting disinflationary pressures from slack in the economy and competition in the retail sector. Total CPI inflation is starting to reflect the fall in oil prices. Oil’s sharp decline in the past six months is expected to boost global economic growth, especially in the United States, while widening the divergences among economies.
Persistent headwinds from deleveraging and lingering uncertainty will influence the extent to which some oil-importing countries benefit from lower prices. The Bank’s base-case projection assumes oil prices around US$60 per barrel. Prices are currently lower but our belief is that prices over the medium term are likely to be higher. The oil price shock is occurring against a backdrop of solid and more broadly-based growth in Canada in recent quarters. Outside the energy sector, we are beginning to see the anticipated sequence of increased foreign demand, stronger exports, improved business confidence and investment, and employment growth. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the speed with which this sequence will evolve and how it will be affected by the drop in oil prices. Business investment in the energy-producing sector will decline. Canada’s weaker terms of trade will have an adverse impact on incomes and wealth, reducing domes
TBA February 18, 2015
tanteam.com | 19
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