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ontents September - October 2016 Volume 04 Issue 11 Here’s Why The Toronto Real Estate Market Is So Crazy
04-05
Down Payment Hike Will Only Squeeze Out More First-Time Home Buyers...
06
Options For Millennials Seeking Their Own Detached Homes
07
What Sellers Need To Know About Comps
08
Insight On Real Estate Wealth Creation & Management Information Session
09
TanTeam Listings September - October 2016
10-17
Featured Listing: Move Within Erin Mills At Border Of Oakville!
16-17
August 2016 GTA Realtors Release Monthly Resale Housing Figures
18-19
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Here’s Why The Toronto Real Estate Market Is So Crazy Why does the mainstream media always
commute one to two hours to get to
The last time we had 10 per cent interest
get our industry wrong? I watch the
there.
rates was 20 years ago and they have
news, read newspapers and stay up on
been falling ever since. In the last 20
current events. But now I am getting
The second factor is rapid population
years, there have only been two quarters
skeptical about any news I consume.
growth that increases demand.
when prices dropped in Toronto…see the
Whenever anything is written about the
correlation between prices and interest
Toronto real estate market, I just shake
The population of GTA and surrounding
my head, and say, “How can they get it so
area has grown from 3.7 million people
wrong?”
in 1986, to 5.5 million in 2005, to 6.3
Another factor is increased “revenue
million now. It will be 7.3 million people in
tools” by the government. These are not
2021 and 9.1 million in 2036!
revenue tools, they are flat out taxes and
With 27 1/2 years of helping great families find a property and now with two
rates?
development fees. Let’s call them what
brokerages with more than 360 agents
If you remember taking an economics
they are. They can add an extra $100,000
who happily help thousands of people
course, you will recall a concept called
to $200,000 to the price of a home.
buy or sell a home, here is my two cents.
supply and demand. If there is an increase in demand, there must either be
Labour and material costs keep going up
The Toronto real estate market is being
a price or quantity adjustment. Right
and will never come down.
driven by these major factors.
now, we have no capacity to increase the quantity of land available in the GTA and
Canada is seen as a safe haven for
The first is restricted supply. Eleven
as a result, land prices have soared for
money, because we have a stable
years ago, the Liberal government froze
building lots and condo development
government, clear rules and we are
development on 1.4 million acres across
sites.
governed by the rule of law and not by
325 km of land from the Niagara River
whim. There has been a huge influx of
through Hamilton (Golden Horseshoe
We also have record low interest rates. A
capital from China, Russia, Iran and host
area), all across the north of the GTA and
$500,000
of other countries.
over to Lake Scugog and Rice Lake,
$2,117/month at today’s interest rate.
under the Greenbelt Act 2005. This had
The same mortgage at 10 per cent
From mainland China, more than $1
the effect of creating the “GTA Island”,
interest is $4,472/month. A $1 million
trillion dollars has left that country in the
and like Manhattan in New York City, if
mortgage at today’s rates carries for
past 12 months and I am told we have a
you can’t afford to buy there, you will
$4,234/month.
few more years of this coming (plus their
mortgage
carries
for
currency has gained a lot against the
Which is exactly what I would do in
the governments to impose more fees
Canadian dollar).
today’s market… because it works for
and
sellers.
regulations on the marketplace. It’s
What factors are not causing prices to go up? Real estate agents!
taxes
or
impose
some
silly
called an economic cycle, and what goes For our agents who work with buyers, it is
up
an incredibly stressful market to be in, for
eventually adjust back to the long term
With the exception of some of the shady
both them and the buyer. We have
four per cent appreciation that real
practices that we’ve heard about recently
entered into a crazy time with prices
estate has had for centuries.
in Vancouver (those agents should be
rising 16 per cent so far this year. One of
booted out of the business and never
our agents has presented 42 different
I have already seen people starting to
allowed to trade again), we do not cause
offers for seven clients and has yet to get
cool off and not buy a home, because
prices to go up. We have a legal
one accepted.
they simply can’t afford to move up to the
obligation to get the most money for the
above
the
historic
mean,
will
home they want. If they just stay put the
seller when we list their property. We
Can you see why buyers and agents get
explain that you can price it three ways:
frustrated?
1) At market value
I hope people will think about this the
2) Above market value – to leave room to
next time they think about how easy it is
negotiate
in real estate. In fact, at every party I go
3) Below market value to get multiple
to, people tell me they are changing
offers.
careers and either going into real estate,
market will come back around to them.
Glenn McQueenie - REM Online
August 10, 2016
personal training or dog walking. I hope We discuss the pros and cons of each
they
approach and the seller decides. Guess
poop-scooping, because they are very
choose
dog
walking
or
what? Most of them decide to price it
profitable businesses. We have too many
below the market in order to get more
agents, there is no need for more.
bids and sell for a high price. They look around their neighbourhood and see that
There is not one or two reasons why this
the approach works!
market is going crazy. It is a multitude of factors and the last thing we need is for
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5
Down Payment Hike Will Only Squeeze Out More First-Time Home Buyers, a Top Mortgage Insurer Warns The head of Canada’s second-largest
year-over-year price increases of about
negatively
mortgage-default insurer is warning
30 per cent and 16 per cent, respectively,
Edmonton, the smaller urban centres
against increasing the minimum down
in May.
where
payment for buying a home.
we’ve
the
seen
Calgary, prices
the
values
moderate and in some cases decrease,” The chief executive of the Bank of Nova
Charles said. “This just isn’t a first-time
Andrew Charles, chief executive of
Scotia, Brian Porter, suggested last week
home buyer challenge.”
Canada Guaranty, whose owners include
he was concerned about the state of the
the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, says
market in those two cities and his
Charles
a full roll out of the minimum down
financial institution “took our foot off the
Canada’s most expensive cities is being
payment for government-backed insured
gas” in the last couple of quarters,
caused by conventional mortgages,
mortgages to 10 per cent from five per
slowing
Others,
which is consumers who have that 20
cent will heavily impact first-time buyers
including the Organization for Economic
per cent down payment on a home and
while failing to alleviate some of the
Co-operation and Development, have
are not governed by federal insurance
price stresses in the Vancouver and
warned about the risks rising debt and
regulations, including restrictions on the
Toronto housing markets.
elevated housing prices in Canada.
length of amortization.
“The first-time home buyer market in
But while Canada’s finance minister Bill
Insured
Canada represents approximately 30 per
Morneau did indicate his government is
amortized over 25 years, but in the
cent of the entire housing market,”
watching the housing market closely and
uninsured market they are often as long
Charles said. “The insured segment of
is ready to take a “deep dive” into what is
as 35 years. A longer amortization
the market has a $1-million cap in terms
causing imbalances, it doesn’t appears
produces a lower monthly payment and
of maximum. We take the view that
the Liberals are set to announce more
allows a consumer to qualify for a larger
increasing, or further penalizing, the
changes in the short-term.
loan.
first-time home buyer does zero or has
“The deep dive includes thinking about
minimal impact on price valuations in
what
two specific markets.”
populations with demographic issues.
Garry Marr
Toronto and Vancouver there’s higher
June 13, 2016
mortgage
the
growth.
drivers
are.
We’ve
population growth. We’ve got better
payment for buying a home in February
labour
to 10 per cent from five per cent for the
Toronto. It’s much lower unemployment,”
portion
Morneau said.
of
the The
selling federal
price
over
markets
in
Vancouver
and
government,
Charles said any move to increase the
which backstops companies like Canada
minimum down payment won’t do much
Guaranty and Canada Mortgage and
for Toronto
Housing Corp., a Crown corporation, that
average detached home prices are well
insure banks for mortgage losses,
beyond the $1-million threshold of
capped maximum home coverage at
government-backed
$1-million while the Tories were in power.
Consumers with a down payment of less
and
Vancouver,
where
mortgages.
than 20 per cent must buy mortgage Pressure is building for the federal
default insurance.
government to rein in housing markets in Vancouver and Toronto, which recorded
says
the
mortgages
market
can
froth
only
in
be
got
Ottawa increased the minimum down
$500,000.
6
impact
“An increase in down payments will
Options For Millennials Seeking Their Own Detached Homes Canadian members of Generation Y still have multiple options
in Manitoba and visited a community 35 kilometers north of
for their desired homes despite benchmark prices for detached
Winnipeg and the lot cost was $45,000. But it’s the same result
properties (as of July) sitting at around $1.2 million in Toronto
as you move out of city cores, prices to get cheaper and that’s
and at nearly $1.6 million in Vancouver, analysts stated.
why bedroom communities are getting more popular.”
“It’s obviously stage of life, as needs change, your requirement
In Vancouver, an attached home like a townhouse unit or a row
for a home changes,” Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA)
house is currently going for an average of $669,000, which
director of marketing communications Fahed Malik told the
might represent a more realistic option for millennials who do
Financial Post. “There is a need for a larger home and a
not want to contend with long distances to and from work.
detached home can give you that practicality.” Another especially important point, according to Environics A recent survey by the OREA found that approximately 51 per
Analytics demographer Doug Norris, is that most of the supply in
cent of millennials are intending to buy a detached property
the detached market is cornered by baby boomers.
within the next two years. Meanwhile, 28 per cent said that they would go for condo units, and 18 per cent expressed a prefer-
“They’re not moving until [age] 75 or so,” Norris said
ence for semi-detached homes. However, observers said that while getting a detached home is still possible, doing so would mean giving up the advantages afforded by other home types—in particular, proximity to work for those employed deeper within the city.
Ephraim Vecina “Living near the city’s downtown means downsizing your expectations,” the Financial Post’s Garry Marr wrote in his analysis. “The desire to have the dog, the garage and two kids is strong no matter what generation you are talking about,” Re/Max Western Canada regional executive Elton Ash said. “I just did a road trip
August 08, 2016
What Sellers Need to Know About Comps
The sales price of neighboring homes is only one part of the
New construction.
equation. Be sure that sellers understand the other factors that
In some markets, the cost of land has dropped, making building
affect how their home compares to their neighbors'.
a new home less expensive and, thus, more affordable for buyers. Sellers need to understand how competition from the
Location within the neighborhood.
new-home segment could affect their listing price. For
If your seller’s home is in a part of the neighborhood that
example, in the suburbs of some parts of Ontario, building a
borders a highway, train tracks, or an industrial area, it’ll likely
house similar in size to an existing structure costs a lot lesser
fetch a lower price. Make sure you pull comps of other homes
and pulling comps from builders in your area to show sellers
in similar locations to compare and explain pricing differences
the potential impact on their home’s value.
to sellers. The difference between listing price and sales price. The home’s lot.
Many sellers will go online to see listing prices for other homes
Take into account that hilly terrain can affect the usability of
on the market in their neighborhood and ask you to price their
each home’s lot and bring your seller’s price down. You can
house accordingly. You need to explain that listing prices
have two one-acre lots next to each other, and one can be fully
reflect what sellers are asking, not what buyers are willing to
usable while the other is only half usable because of steep
pay. That’s why sold inventory is more reliable for determining
slopes, says Todd Gibbons of William Pitt Sotheby’s
the realistic price of your seller’s home than the asking price of
International.
properties currently on the market.
Renovations. Home owners who have done home-improvement projects typically get a higher price for their property. You should know which properties in the neighborhood have undergone renovations and how much they sold for so you can suggest to your seller what projects they should do if they want to boost their home’s sale price.
8
John H. Frank - REALTOR MAG
July 2016
Prices For Single-Family Detached
Houses In Greater Vancouver Hit New Highs
Benchmark prices for single-family detached houses in Greater
There were 3,345 sales in Greater Vancouver on the multiple
Vancouver ascended to new highs last month.
listing service last month, up 14.5 per cent from a year earlier.
The Home Price Index (HPI) for detached properties in the
Board president Darcy McLeod said a range of factors is
region hit almost $1.18-million in September, up 18.9 per cent
influencing prices, notably a limited supply of listings. The total
from the same period in 2014. On Vancouver’s west side, the
number of listings of all residential property types in the area
HPI rose 19.2 per cent over the past year to surpass $2.74-mil-
has fallen 27 per cent over the past year.
I N S I G H T
T O
lion while surging 22.5 per cent to $1.16-million on the east side.
“The number of homes listed for sale hasn’t been keeping up
with the demand,” Mr. McLeod said in a statement Friday. “It’s
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver prefers to
this dynamic that’s placing upward pressure on home prices,
REAL ESTATE WEALTH CREATION & M AN AGEMENT concentrate on the HPI, saying that averages skew the picture
particularly in the detached home market.”
because the most expensive properties are included. The
W H Abenchmark T ’ SHPI isSa representation T O P ofPtheI typical N Ghouse inYan O U ? area, providing a better barometer of real estate trends than
G E T
I N
T H E
average resale prices, according to the board. THUSRDAY, SEPTEMBER 15th, 2016 @ 6:30PM
K N O W !
6948 Financial Drive
Mississauga ON L5N 8J4
The Greater Vancouver board’s territory covers a large portion Investing • Wealth Management • Risk Assessment • Crucial Housing Market Update • Local, National, Global Economics • Mortgage of Metro Vancouver, including Burnaby, Richmond and New
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V i sRock i tand Langley w w– whose w . sales T afallnunder T the e Fraser a mValley . c o m
T o
R e s e r v e
A
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Real Estate Board. The price for detached properties in Greater Vancouver last month averaged nearly $1.41-million, or an 11.5-per-cent increase since September, 2014. Last month’s figure fell just shy of the record $1.47-million average in August. Industry experts say low interest rates, a healthy economy and population growth have fuelled the housing boom over the past three years. On the high end of the market for detached properties, there has been brisk demand from buyers who are from China, observers say. Dan Scarrow, vice-president of corporate strategy at Macdonald Realty Ltd., estimates that 16 per cent of his firm’s 1,500 sales of detached houses, condos and townhouses within the city of Vancouver last year went to buyers from China. Of his firm’s 544 sales of detached homes in Vancouver proper last year, 150 of the purchasers were from China, or 27.5 per cent, his analysis shows.
Brant Jang @ The Globe & Mail
October 02, 2015
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August 2016 GTA REALTORS® Release Monthly Resale Housing Figures Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark for
that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported a record 9,813
August 2016 was up by 17.2 per cent on a year-over-year basis.
sales through TREB’s MLS® System in August 2016.
Similarly, the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 17.7 per cent on an annual basis to $710,410. Both
While this sales result was 23.5 per cent above the number of
the MLS® HPI benchmarks and average prices for low-rise
transactions reported for August 2015, it is important to note
home types were up by double digits percentage-wise.
that the majority of sales are reported on working days and there were two additional working days in August 2016 compared to
“Population in the GTA continues to grow. The resulting growth
2015. When the year-over-year discrepancy in working days is
in households coupled with favourable economic conditions
accounted for, the annual percentage change in sales is closer
and low borrowing costs means that we remain on track for
to 13 per cent.
another record year for home sales. Against this backdrop, TREB will also be releasing new third-party research, and
“The conditions underlying strong demand for ownership
consumer and REALTOR® survey results throughout the fall and
housing remained in place, including a relatively strong regional
winter, with discussions focusing on foreign buying activity and
economy, growth in average earnings and low borrowing costs.
issues affecting the supply of ownership housing,” said Jason
Unfortunately, we did not see any relief on the listings front, with
Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.
the number of new listings down compared to last year. This situation continued to underpin very strong home price growth, irrespective of home type or area,” said Mr. Cerqua.
Toronto Real Estate Board
September 07, 2016
November/December 2015 Volume 04 Issue 06
19
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