June - July 2014 Volume 03 Issue 10
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ontents June • July 2014 Volume 03 Issue 10
Canadians Richer Than Ever & Cutting Back On Mortage Debt
04
Can’t Afford A House In Toronto? Be Patient...
Canadian Home Sales Spring To Life In May, Surge 4.8 Per Cent
06
Canadians See Houses As Homes, Not Nest Eggs
In Toronto‘s Housing Market ‘$2-million Is The New $1-million’
08
Canadian Housing Starts Remain Steady As Of May 2014
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Tan Team Listings June-July 2014
June Mid-Month Resale Market Figures
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Tight Market Conditions Prompt Strong Price Growth
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Tan.gazine news
Canadians Richer Than Ever & Cutting Back On Mortgage Debt Debt growth eases…Canadians are getting the message on their ugly debt levels, at the same time as their wealth increases. Mortgage debt in Canada rose just 0.6 per cent in the first quarter of the year, to $1.1-trillion, marking the slowest pace since the depths of the financial crisis in early 2009, Statistics Canada said. The key measure of leverage, or household credit market debt to disposable income, also improved again in the first three months, albeit by baby steps. That debt burden now stands at 163.2 per cent, having inched down from 163.9 per cent in last three months of 2013, and, significantly, from its record high of 164.1 per cent in the third quarter of last year. Consumer credit, meanwhile, edged down 0.3 per cent to $507-billion. Over all, Statistics Canada said, we’re getting wealthier as we begin to curb our appetite for debt amid record-low interest rates. We need to keep in mind, of course, that headline numbers such as these mask the income inequality across the country and the fact that 1.3 million people are out of work. And many people are in part-time positions. Having said that, national net worth climbed 1.5 per cent in the first quarter to $7.8-trillion, or $221,300 on a per-capita basis. Among Canadian families, that 4 | tanteam.com
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showing was even better as household net worth increased 2.5 per cent to a record high $7.9-trillion, pumped up by stocks, particularly those in mutual funds. Rising house prices also played a role. On a per-capita basis, net worth at the household level is now $222,600. “This primarily reflected continued strength in domestic stock markets during the quarter,” the federal agency said. “The increase in household net worth was also supported by a 2-per-cent gain the value of household real estate.” This all means that household net worth stands at 726 per cent of disposable income, noted chief economist Douglas Porter of BMO Nesbitt Burns. “Though often overshadowed by the debt headlines, big gains in the asset side of the balance sheet may well be the bigger story at this point of the cycle,” Mr. Porter said. “With the TSX finally capturing a new record high just yesterday, that train is still chugging in favour of household finances,” he added. Along with the debt burden easing slightly, the ability to juggle those debts also remained easy, with the household debt service ratio staying at “historically low levels,” Statistics Canada said. Today’s report, said
economist Laura Cooper of Royal Bank of Canada, supports the Bank of Canada’s recent comments that consumer debt levels are gradually coming into line. Household credit growth, she noted, slowed to 4.2 per cent, compared to a year earlier, marking the lowest pace since 2001. “With housing market activity set to cool after a likely short-lived weather-related bounce in the spring, a further slowing in mortgage credit growth along with firmer income gains are expected to keep a lid on the debt-to-income ratio in the quarters ahead,” Ms. Cooper said. “While the debt-to-income ratio remains historically elevated, the mild improvement in the condition of household balance sheets will insure that a precipitous deterioration in households’ ability to service their debts is less likely,” she added. Homeowner equity also inched up, to almost 70 per cent, marking its highest in four years. Higher asset prices, said Mr. Porter, also brought down the Canadian debt-to-asset ratio to 18.6 per cent, the lowest in six years though still higher than the levels before the recession. “Flipping that ratio on its head, this implies that Canadian households have $5.39 of assets for every $1 of debt,” he said.
Tan.gazine news Can’t Afford A House in Toronto?
Be Patient…
With prices of single family homes already up over 13 per cent year over year, the dream of owning a home in a desirable neighbourhood is quickly fading for many would-be Toronto home owners. In popular areas along the Yonge subway line, even semidetached homes are now selling for over $1 million, which is out of reach for most buyers The reason that prices have risen so fast is that more and more people want to stay in Toronto to raise their families instead of moving to the suburbs. Toronto has become a world class city with great restaurants, unique cultural events, and neighbourhood festivals all over the city. Also, with commute times at a record high, many people who work in the city would rather live close to their work so they don’t have to spend hours every day in a car or on a train. So what options are there for people with a budget under $1 million who still want a home in a desirable neighbourhood? I posed this question to former city councillor Adam Vaughan, who has long believed that an important part of Toronto’s growth as a city includes families living near the downtown core. Vaughan cites a regulation for new condos mandating that at least 10 per cent of all units in new buildings have three bedrooms or more. “10 years ago, people were calling me crazy for pushing this regulation, saying that families would never want to live downtown,” says Vaughan. “In hindsight, I think we will probably look back and think that the 10 per cent requirement was too low.” The facts seem to back up Vaughan’s statement, as three bedroom condos and townhouses close to the downtown core are now selling faster than ever before. There are schools and daycares opening up in the bottom of large condo buildings, and lots of new parks and playgrounds are being built. Another option that many home owners are not aware of is that many newer condo buildings have knockdown walls between units. This means that
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two or more suites could easily be combined into a larger suite by removing a non-structural mutual wall built in a way that makes it easy to remove. While this is a rare occurrence right now, it is a fascinating example of a policy that allows the market to dictate what type of properties exist in Toronto’s downtown core. If families continue to choose to live in the city, then there will be more demand for larger units, and savvy investors will combine two smaller suites into a larger suite to meet demand. It could also be a great investment for buyers to purchase two units side by side and rent one out for several years until their lifestyle requires a larger property. Then they can combine the units together and have a space just as large as a single family home. These options may seem unconventional right now, but if house prices continue to grow anywhere near the current rate, we could see the location of knockdown walls become essential information in every property listing. All of this is good news for home buyers. As the popularity of these larger suites closer to downtown increases, it could make detached homes more affordable, creating more of a balanced market. These changes could be years away, but Toronto is well positioned to offer a variety of options for families wanting to live close to the downtown core. tanteam.com | 5
Tan.gazine news
Canadian Home Sales Spring To Life
In May, Surge 4.8 Per Cent Canadian home sales sprang to life in May, coming in 4.8 per cent higher than a year earlier, according to data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association on Monday. Poor weather caused a slow start to the all-important spring home-selling season this year, but the market showed significant momentum last month. The number of existing homes that changed hands over the Multiple Listing Service rose 5.9 per cent from April on a seasonally-adjusted basis, CREA said. That is the highest month-to-month increase in almost four years. It is the fourth consecutive increase in sales from the prior month, after five months in which sales kept dropping. The numbers surpassed what economists had been expecting based on preliminary May data that had been released by some local real estate boards across the country (the real estate boards and CREA represent realtors and track sales that occur over the MLS). Bank of Montreal economist Benjamin Reitzes was watching for sales to climb 2.5 per cent year-over year. And even that would have been a strong showing. “The housing market remains remarkably resilient,” he wrote in a research note before the data
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was released. “Not coincidentally, mortgage rates have fallen once again, with sub-3 per cent rates on offer. “Indeed, as long as rates remain at rock-bottom levels, housing isn’t like to weaken much, if at all.” CREA suggested that the large number of sales in May is largely making up for weaker activity in the prior months, and it doesn’t expect the momentum to last. It updated its annual forecast and said it is now expecting 463,400 homes to change hands this year. That’s actually down from its forecast in March, when it said it expected 463,700 sales. On the other hand, it now expects prices to climb further. It predicts that the national average home price will rise 5.7 per cent this year to $404,300. In March it was forecasting a 3.8 per cent increase to $397,000. The national average sales price was up 7.1 per cent in May from a year earlier. Averages can be distorted, for instance by a higher level of sales in a pricey neighbourhood. The MLS Home Price Index, which seeks to be a more apples-to-apples comparison of prices, was up 5 per cent.
Tan.gazine news
Canadians See Houses As Homes, Not Nest Eggs More than two-thirds of Canadians who bought in the last decade view their house as a place to live and just 31 per cent as a nest egg. And that appears to be consistent among homebuyers, whether they bought recently, or back in 2003, before real estate in markets like Toronto and Vancouver virtually doubled or tripled in price, according to the annual spring survey of the residential mortgage market done on behalf of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP). It’s the first time that CAAMP has posed the question as part of its biannual survey, largely “because there has been so much chatter about whether people rely too much on their house as an asset,” said Will Dunning, the association’s chief economist and author of the report released Thursday. “It’s more a test of peoples’ mindset: How important do you feel about your house as a financial asset. We’ll have to see how it evolves over time.” The 34-page report paints a detailed picture of residential mortgage debt. While homeowners across the country owed a combined $1.23 trillion on their homes as of February, that’s forecast to rise to
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$1.34 trillion by the end of 2015. There are currently some 9.55 million homeowners in Canada, almost four million of whom are mortgage-free, says the report. Of the 5.6 million Canadian homeowners who still have mortgages, about 1.75 million also have Home Equity Lines of Credit. But about 16 per cent (900,000) of those homeowners have heeded Ottawa’s warning about record-high household debt and made voluntary extra payments averaging about $375 per month during the last year, notes CAAMP. About 14 per cent (about 800,000) made lump sum payments during the same period and 7 per cent (roughly 425,000) stepped up the frequency of their payments. Some 35 per cent of mortgage holders “took one or more of these three actions,” says the survey. But not everyone was on the buy-down bandwagon: almost 11 per cent of Canada’s 9.55 million homeowners either increased their mortgage or drew on a Home Equity Line of Credit over the last year to consolidate debt, do home renovations or repairs, invest or make “other” purchases, says the survey. The combined low-
interest-rate equity takeout amounted to $53 million, or an average $51,000 “Canadians have become more confident over time about their ability to weather a downturn in the housing market,” says the report, which has tested consumer sentiments in its surveys since the fall of 2010. Most believe that real estate is a good long-term investment and remain moderately confident about the economy. Just 15 per cent said they are “nervous” about their mortgages. The survey mirrors the slowdown now hitting many Canadian housing markets, with the exception of Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary where price growth remains exceptionally strong: Mortgage credit growth has averaged about 8.4 per cent per year over the past decade, rising to a peak of about 10 per cent just before the recession, said Dunning, largely based on mortgages being taken out for the first time on new homes and condos across the country. As of February, the growth rate had slowed to just 5 per cent, year over year, and is expected to slip to 4.5 per cent by the end of 2015, reflecting in part the slowdown in new construction.
tanteam.com | 7
Tan.gazine news
In Toronto’s Housing Market $2-million Is The New $1-million Torontonians who can barely wrap their minds around a housing market where $1-million is the average price for a detached home might want to take notice of a new fast-approaching benchmark. Try not to panic if you haven’t bought yet but the $2-million home is a growing segment of the market in Canada’s largest city. Data released by the Toronto Real Estate Board Wednesday shows there were 461 detached home sales for more than $2-million through its Multiple listing Service system in the first five months of the year. That’s only 2.4% of all detached home sales activity for the year but the $2-million plus range
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has climbed 37% over the past year in the GTA. “What you are seeing is $2-million is the new $1-million,” says Drew Laszlo, an architect in the city who has been involved in several infill projects that have fallen into the new threshold. The strength of the $2-million-plus market comes as Toronto home prices continue to soar. TREB said Wednesday the average sale price of a home across the Greater Toronto Area reached $585,204 in May, an 8.5% increase from a year ago. It was the best May ever for Toronto real estate sales with detached homes in the city proper reaching an average price of $943,055.
Jason Mercer, TREB’s senior manager of market analysis, cautions when it comes to the $2-million-plus market the numbers are still small so it could affect the data. “There is a clear reason why prices have gone up. Demand is strong but the majority of people looking to purchase a home are still doing it with a mortgage,” says Mr. Mercer, citing record-low interest rates as a factor that continues to drive sales. “That leads to strong price increases because of a tight market.”
Tan.gazine news
Canadian Housing Starts Remain Steady As Of May 2014 The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) announced that Canadian housing starts are trending at 184,438 units, a slight increase compared to the 183,872 units in April. Housing starts across the country have remained steady for the past three months, which is a sign of market stabilization. The trending figure is a six-month moving average of monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR), so the figures are based on start numbers that have been modified to remove seasonal variation. The figures are multiplied by 12 to represent an annual average. â&#x20AC;&#x153;In May, the trend in housing starts was virtually unchanged for the third consecutive month. This is in line with CMHCâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s analysis indicating that the new home construction market in Canada is headed for a soft landing in 2014,â&#x20AC;? said Bruno Duhamel, Manager, Housing and Economic Analysis. â&#x20AC;&#x153;Builders are expected to continue to manage their starts activity in order to ensure that demand from buyers
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seeking new units is first channeled toward unsold completed units or unsold units that are currently under construction, including condominium units.â&#x20AC;? The standalone SAAR for May 2014 was 198,324 units, another small increase compared to the 196,687 units in April. The SAAR of urban starts was 180,813 units, with 117,709 urban multiple starts and 63,104 urban singledetached starts. The SAAR of urban starts increased in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and British Columbia, it stayed steady in Ontario, and
decreased in The Prairies. The CMHC estimates that the SAAR of rural starts was 17,511 units. Since February, the CMHC has been referencing Canadaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s housing starts to predict a soft landing for the housing market, and so far, it seems theyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;re prediction has been correct. Canada and especially the Greater Toronto Area is full of intelligent builders and developers, so we are confident that inventory levels will continue to be managed in a healthy manner.
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Getting A Mortgage Can Be This Comfortable
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Tan.gazine news
Mortgage Battle Escalates As Scotiabank Offers 2.97% Five-Year Rate Royal Bank of Canada, the country’s largest mortgage lender, is offering real estate agents $1,000 for referring five first-time home buyers, as competition among banks for first-time buyers has heated up. That’s the lowest five-year fixed rate among the big banks, and comes in slightly below the 2.99 per cent rate that Bank of Montreal has sparked controversy with in recent years (Bank of Montreal’s current fiveyear fixed rate is 3.29 per cent). When Bank of Montreal and Manulife Bank dropped their five-year fixed rates below 3 per cent in the spring of 2013, they raised the ire of then-finance minister Jim Flaherty, who was trying to curb growing consumer debt levels. But current Finance Minister Joe Oliver has signalled that he wants to be less involved in the mortgage market than his predecessor was. There are lower rates in the market. Earlier this month Investors Group had a 1.99 per cent promotion, but that was on three-year variable-rate mortgages. Five-year fixed rates are important because the government requires consumers who are taking out an insured
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mortgage of less than five years to pass a test that shows they could afford a five-year fixed-rate mortgage. So it’s the five-year fixed rates that could, in theory, cause more concern in Ottawa about consumer debt levels. David Stafford, Scotiabank’s managing director of real estate secured lending, makes a case for why he thinks Ottawa should not be worried: he says the bank is telling consumers to use the low rates that are available in the market today to pay down their mortgage faster, rather than taking advantage of the low rates to buy a more expensive house than they otherwise would. “Consumers view rate as a proxy for cost,” he says. But the actual cost of the mortgage is the dollars that you spend in interest. There are three things that drive that: how much you borrow, at what rate, for how long. And the most expensive part of the mortgage right now is time, not the rate… “If you were to make a payment on your mortgage as if rates were 4 or 4.5 per cent, then that 3 per cent rate goes to work for you.”
Tan.gazine news
Banks normally stoke competition in the mortgage market towards the start of the all-important spring home selling season, but Scotiabank’s rate promotion comes relatively late. That’s a sign that the traditional spring selling season was delayed, in large part by bad weather. “The mortgage market started late this year, it was a late spring,” Mr. Stafford says. Scotiabank’s head of Canadian banking, Anatol von Hahn, told analysts that the mortgage market is not growing the way it has in previous years, and noted that mortgages are the largest item on the big banks’ balance sheets.
Housing Market Can Withstand Gradual 2% Mortgage Hike: BMO
Canada’s housing market would be more than able to withstand a modest two per cent increase in mortgage rates as long as it’s implemented slowly, over a year or two, BMO economist Robert Kavcic says. In a report Friday, Kavcic runs some numbers trying to gauge the impact of what would happen if Canadian mortgage rates increased by about two per cent. The housing market has been pumping out strong gains for more than a decade, which has caused policymakers and many private-sector observers to worry that prices are too high, and think a correction has to be coming — especially once mortgage rates return to more normal levels. But there isn’t necessarily anything to worry about in a modest, two per cent hike, Kavcic finds — depending on how it’s implemented. Most first-time homebuyers in Canada choose a five-year fixed-rate mortgage amortized over 25 years, so that’s the baseline that Kavcic works from. (Currently, the average posted mortgage rate for that type of mortgage is something around three per cent.) In order to gauge affordability, Kavcic looks at
“We’ve had a bit of a slower start to the mortgage season,” Royal Bank of Canada president Dave McKay told analysts last week. Mr. Stafford says he remains optimistic that business is picking up, and says there have been steady increases in mortgage volumes week-overweek. “There’s going to be a burst of activity,” he says of home sales.
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the same metric that financial planners say buyers should pay attention to when buying a home — the percentage of the buyer’s income that gets eaten up by housing. (A healthy level is when 25 to 30 per cent of one’s income is spent on housing. Borrowers historically run into trouble when that ratio hits 35 per cent or higher.) Kavcic says if mortgage rates jumped by two percentage points overnight (say, to an average of around five per cent) the impact on the housing market would be dramatic, as people would suddenly finding themselves paying a dangerously high percentage of their income on housing. “If we were to get that increase overnight, housing valuations … would be stretched to levels that preceded significant corrections in the past,” Kavcic says. Rising incomes, rising prices But if that two-percentage-point increase gets implemented a little more slowly, giving incomes times to catch up, the impact is much less dramatic. If the hike is implemented gradually, until 2016, the income ratio
tanteam.com | 11
Tan.gazine news
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doesn’t go into the danger zone, he says. As well, if the hike is even smaller, something around one per cent, there could actually plenty of room for prices to go up further. “If that increase happens gradually over the next two years, if at all, it’s a much different story,” Kavcic said. His assumptions are based on incomes rising by a modest three per cent per year over that time, a reasonable assumption based on the 3.1 per cent pace that Statistics Canada says they’re increasing by right now.
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The latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association shows the average Canadian home price hit $409,708 in April, up more than 7.6 per cent in the past year. Most experts think the days of outsized gains have to come to an end some day soon, but as Kavcic’s analysis shows, mortgage rates ticking higher but slowly should be no reason to spark a major sell-off.
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Tan.gazine news Greater Toronto REALTORS® Report June 2014 Mid-Month Resale Market Figures TORONTO, June 17, 2014 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Dianne Usher announced that both sales and new listings were up substantially during the first 14 days of June 2014 compared to the same period in 2013. “If the first two weeks of June are any indication, we may be seeing a turnaround in the supply of homes for sale in the Greater Toronto Area. New listings were up on a year-over-year basis for most major home types in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions. However, sales growth outpaced growth in new listings, which suggests that there is still a lot of pent-up demand yet to be satisfied, so sellers’ market conditions will likely remain in place for the remainder of 2014,” said Ms. Usher. Sales reported through the TorontoMLS system during the first two weeks of June amounted to 4,938 – up by 11.3 per cent in comparison to 2013. New listings were up over the same period by 7.8 per cent to 8,825.
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The average selling price for June mid-month transactions was $582,100, which represented an increase of 8.6 per cent compared to the average of $535,865 in 2013. “Average selling prices were up across the GTA for low-rise home types like singles, semis and townhouses as well as for condominium apartments. This is no surprise given that the number of transactions was up compared to 2013 by a greater rate than the number of new listings, which suggests that competition between buyers arguably increased,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
Tan.gazine news Tight Market Conditions Prompt Strong Price Growth In May, the median price was $585,204 from the $540,544 recorded during May of 2013 Toronto, June 04, 2014
TORONTO, June 4, 2014 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Dianne Usher announced that both the number of home sales through the TorontoMLS system and the average selling price were up strongly in May compared to a year ago. Total TorontoMLS sales for May 2014 amounted to 11,079 – a new high for the month of May. This result was up by 11.4 per cent compared to 9,946 sales reported in May 2013. The average selling price for these sales was $585,204, representing an 8.3 per cent year-over-year increase compared to the average price of $540,544 in May 2013. “We are now at the peak of the spring market when we generally see the greatest number of sales and the highest average selling prices. Based on the May statistics, buyers have been more active this spring compared to last year. Despite strong price growth so far in 2014, many households remain comfortable with the monthly mortgage payments associated with the purchase of a home, as borrowing costs have remained at or near record lows over the past few months,” said Ms. Usher.
Average selling prices varied across the Greater Toronto Area, depending on geography and home type. A detached home in the City of Toronto sold, on average, for $943,055. In the surrounding GTA regions, the average detached price was $648,439. The average price for condominium apartments was $401,809 in the City of Toronto and $307, 307 in the surrounding regions. “The listings situation in the GTA did not improve this past May. With listings down and sales up compared to last year, competition between buyers increased. The result was price growth well-above the rate of inflation, especially for singles, semis and townhomes,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “It is also important to point out that even though the condo apartment market segment remains comparatively well-supplied, as new project completions have generally led to an uptick in listings, we have seen enough buyer interest to prompt strong condo price growth as well,” continued Mercer.
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