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ontents May - June 2016 Volume 04 Issue 09
Millenialls Set To Drive Change In Real Estate Market
GTA Real Estate Market On Pace For Another Year Of Record-Breaking Sales
06
CMHC Continues To Reduce It’s Exposure To The Housing Market
Lopsided Buyer-Seller Ratio Is Hurting The Toronto Market
08
Real Estate 101 & Mortgage Information Session
09
TanTeam Listings May - June 2016
10-13
April 2016 GTA Realtors Release Monthly Resale Housing Figures
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16
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Millennials Set To Drive Change In Real Estate Market They have the potential to be the biggest
“Affordability will play a huge factor in
had a huge impact on the GTA rental
home-buying cohort in history — even
who buys what,� says Dana Senagama,
sector because of their willingness to
bigger than their baby boomer parents.
principal GTA market analyst for Canada
pay a hefty price — on average about
Mortgage and Housing Corp., which has
$1,800 a month — to rent sky-high new
But
of
surprisingly little data so far on how the
glass-and-granite condos an easy walk
millennials will end up living, and how
where
Canada’s
millions
might of the millennials is being felt so
from work.
they will impact the real estate market,
far.
has just started to play out.
That’s helped fuel the unprecedented “They’re going to be a force to be
condo boom in the GTA, especially in the
7KH ͤUVW ZDYH ̹ ERRPHUV̾ NLGV ZKR
reckoned with over the next decade,
downtown
range in age from 15 to 34 and make up
especially as they move into their prime
thousands of new suites on the market,
about
child-rearing years and will need more
the rental vacancy rate remains below 2
space.�
per cent.
Toronto and Vancouver, where job
Even the Toronto Real Estate Board,
With the average resale price of even a
growth has become a major magnet.
which assesses the state of the GTA
Toronto condo now inching toward the
one-quarter
of
Canada’s
population — are just moving into their
core
where,
despite
prime home-buying years. Many live in
resale market twice a month, seems to
$500,000 mark, developers are starting
$OUHDG\ WKRVH IRUWXQDWH HQRXJK WR ͤQG D
know little about the buying intentions
to shift their sights to building rental
decent, dependable job, rather than just
of millennials. It’s set to launch surveys
units, anticipating that many millennials
contract work, have been helping drive
of the sector in the new year.
will be renters for life.
One thing is clear so far: Millennials have
“Millennials have much less of an
competition for starter condos and single-family homes.
November/December 2015 Volume 04 Issue 06
attraction to owning a single-family
It’s a pleasant fall evening and a crowd
space. But prices climb quickly to the
home and a car. They’ve got much more
is
Roncesvalles
$800,000-and-up range for a more
of an attraction to a lifestyle and a job,�
storefront for what looks like an art
livable 1,000 square feet, especially
says James McKellar, director of the real
gallery opening.
when upgrades like a $7,500 locker and
crammed
into
a
estate and infrastructure program at
a $45,000 parking space are factored in.
York University’s Schulich School of
Wine is flowing. Finger foods are flying
Business.
off the plates and a security guard has
The fact that a detached house in the
been hired for crowd control.
city now averages more than $1 million
“And many of them, especially in the
has
made
townhouses homes
the
and
United States, have become skeptical of
Canny and Nicholas Ng, both 28, are
semi-detached
this notion of a house as an investment.�
among the many millennials, some
tickets in the GTA for young buyers —
hottest
accompanied by their parents, who are
and especially young parents — hoping
But with 1.5 million millennials in the
here for what is, in reality, one of the
to escape highrise condos.
GTA region alone, they’re likely to keep
oddest lotteries of their life — a chance,
sending shock waves through the
if their name is drawn, to buy a
The Ngs have just started visiting
housing market, just as their parents did
yet-to-be-built
condominium
new-home sales centres, hoping to
before them.
townhouse in one of Toronto’s most
move up into a house from a downtown
up-and-coming neighbourhoods.
condo. But, like many millennials, they
“There’s a shifting sensibility around
still have a basic debate to settle.
KRZ ZH GHͤQH KRPH ̚ VD\V 7RURQWR
There is a buzz in the room until word
developer Mazyar Mortazavi, whose
starts getting around that some 2,000
Nicholas thinks the suburbs offer better
company, Tas DesignBuild, is now
IRONV KDYH UHJLVWHUHG IRU WKH ͤUVW FUDFN
value.
focusing on midrise condo projects in
at just 57 homes.
commute times in the city.
“Only in Toronto would you have a
̸:H̾UH ͤJKWLQJ D ELW DERXW ZKHUH WR OLYH
“Millennials and the subset before them,
lottery to buy a condo,� says one woman
... struggling ... discussing,� says Canny
the late 30-somethings, are probably the
ZKR̾V DPRQJ WKH ͤUVW LQ OLQH EXW OHDYHV
with a laugh.
ͤUVW JHQHUDWLRQ RI SHRSOH ZKR DUH OLYLQJ
less than 15 minutes after the doors
their early adult life in urban centres. For
open.
Canny
prefers
the
shorter
neighbourhoods just outside the core.
them, home has more to do with being
The couple take a pass on the lottery and continue their search.
part of a complete community than it did
The big crowd is understandable, given
in their parents’ generation, when it was
that prices — on paper at least — start at
about having a backyard, a picket fence
just $477,000 for stacked townhouses
and a two-car garage.�
with about 750 square feet of living
Susan Pigg @ The Toronto Star
January 02, 2016
5
GTA Real Estate Market On Pace For Another Year of Record-Breaking Sales Toronto real estate agent Elli Davis just closed a “bully offer� for
The number of new listings was down compared to the same
$300,000 over a $2.65 million listing price, a type of deal she’s
period last year, meaning there were more buyers competing for
making more often in the busiest market she’s seen in nearly 30
IHZHU KRPHV 7KH QXPEHU RI KRPHV OLVWHG IRU VDOH LQ WKH ͤUVW
years.
TXDUWHU IHOO WR LWV ORZHVW OHYHO IRU D ͤUVW TXDUWHU LQ DW OHDVW years, according to an analysis by National Bank.
The increasingly competitive Greater Toronto Area real estate market is on pace for another year of record-breaking sales and
A competition among buyers for fewer homes often results in
double-digit price growth as buyers bid aggressively for the few
bidding wars that drive prices higher. In March, the average
KRXVHV RQ WKH PDUNHW 6DOHV LQ WKH ͤUVW TXDUWHU RI URVH
detached GTA home inched closer to the $1 million mark,
15.8 per cent from the opening three months of last year,
sitting at $910,375.
according to the Toronto Real Estate Board. Davis said she is astounded at the prices. Nearly half of the 23 Davis, a Royal Lepage agent in upscale central Toronto, said a
agents’ open houses listed for Tuesday in Toronto’s central
lack of housing supply is pushing more buyers to make
core were for properties valued between $3.5 million and $16.8
hard-to-resist deals days before the seller is slated to accept
million, she said.
bids. These are also known as bully offers. Toronto is a seller’s market, with sales-to-new-listing ratios “There were no conditions and the owner said ‘thank you very
hovering around 70 per cent — the highest ratio since the
much, I’ll take it,’� she said of the home that went for $300,000
2008-2009 recession, said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at
over asking.
BMO.
The 10,326 homes sold in March was a 16.2-per-cent increase
He doesn’t see this abating any time soon as strong job and
from the year earlier and accounted for nearly half the 22,575
population growth in the GTA will continue to drive demand,
KRPHV WKDW FKDQJHG KDQGV LQ WKH ͤUVW TXDUWHU
while few new detached homes are being built.
The average selling price across all housing types in the Greater
“This has been more of a sustained gradual increase in demand
Toronto Area rose 12.1 per cent year-over-year in March to
and no new supply coming on board, so this is probably going
$688,181.
to persist longer than back in 2009.�
The market could have experienced even stronger sales growth
Davis said the market is stronger now than it was coming out of
LI LW ZHUH QRW FRQVWUDLQHG E\ D GHͤFLW RI QHZ OLVWLQJV VDLG -DVRQ
the recession, adding she’s the busiest she’s been since 1989.
Mercer, TREB’s director of market analysis. “We didn’t have a terrible winter, I think that helped, mortgage “That’s why we’re seeing strong increases in selling prices, yet
rates helped, and demand is high and supply is low,� she said.
on the other side, if we did see more listings come online, they’d be absorbed in short order because of pent-up demand,� he
“All those things together make a busy time.�
said.
̸, WKLQN WKH ͤUVW TXDUWHU FHUWDLQO\ VXJJHVWV WKDW ZH FRXOG EH RQ track for another record year and likely the only thing that could slow that down is if we continue to see a dip in listings.�
6
Sunny Freeman @ The Toronto Star
April 05, 2016
CMHC Continues To Reduce It’s Exposure To The Housing Market about limiting CMHC’s risk exposure to the housing market with measures including increasing insurance premiums. &DQDGLDQV ERUURZLQJ IURP D ͤQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQ UHJXODWHG E\ Ottawa with a mortgage down payment of less than 20 per cent must buy mortgage default insurance, which protects lenders in the case of the default. There are two private mortgage default insurers, but CMHC insurance is 100 per cent backed by the federal government. In 2015, the Crown corporation said it insured $55.3 billion in Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., the Crown corporation
loans and provided mortgage loan insurance on 304,518 units.
that controls a majority of the mortgage default insurance
It said $353 million in claims were paid last year, a 9.5 per cent
market in the country, continues to reduce its exposure to the
reduction from 2014.
housing market. Arrears remain low and, as of Dec. 31, 2015, stood at 0.34 per In its annual report released Monday, CMHC said its mortgage
cent, which was almost unchanged from a year earlier. The
loan insurance-in-force decreased to $526 billion last year
Crown corporation said that, on average, homeowners with
from $543 billion at year-end 2014. Its legislative maximum is
CMHC-insured mortgages had 46 per cent equity in the value of
$600 billion, which iti had been approaching in previous years.
their homes, which was about the same as 2014.
“Focusing our risk management on those areas we are best equipped to manage is the key to how we operate. We want to
According to the the report, the average gross debt service ratio
be a best-in-class risk manager for household mortgage credit,
for CMHC’s transactional homeowner business was 25.9 per
RXU PRVW VLJQLͤFDQW ͤQDQFLDO ULVN ̚ VDLG (YDQ 6LGGDOO LQ D
cent as of the fourth quarter. The GDS ratio measures the
statement as part of the the Crown corporation’s 2015 report.
percentage of a homeowner’s income that is required to meet housing costs and includes mortgage payments, property
The Crown Corporation said its net income after taxes last year
taxes and heating costs.
was $1.488 billion compared to $2.625 billion a year earlier. It attributed the 43.3 per cent reduction to lower net realized
Overall, CMHC reported the average credit score in 2015 was
gains. Net income the previous year was higher because of the
̹ D QXPEHU FRQVLGHUHG VWURQJ 7KDW ͤJXUH URVH IURP LQ
sale of longer duration bonds as well as equities as CMHC
2014.
implements new asset mixes in its mortgage loan insurance investment business. Since Siddall took over as CEO in January 2014 he has talked
Garry Marr @ Financial Post
May 09, 2016
7
Lopsided Buyer-Seller Ratio Is Hurting The Toronto Market Dunning added that if the latest numbers are any indication, the trend will not stop any time soon. “The situation has gotten worse. In February of 2016, the ratio rose to 71 per cent and prices were up by 11.3 per cent from a year earlier,� he wrote. “Housing production has been far from adequate.� The Ontario government needs to step up its market involvement and intervene as soon as possible, Dunning argued. “First, it needs to acknowledge that there is a problem for low-rise housing. (It should not dodge this by pointing to the A long-time analyst of Canada’s real estate markets who is now
burgeoning supply of new condominium apartments – most
contemplating a purchase in Toronto pointed at a crucial factor
families expect to live on the ground, not in a tower.) Second, it
driving the affordability crisis in the city: the dearth of supply
needs to review its own policies and see what can be done to
stemming from the lopsided buyer-seller ratio.
improve the supply situation. Third, it needs to engage with other key actors – the municipalities, land owners, and home
“The problem is that there are vastly more buyers than sellers,�
EXLOGHUV ̰ WR ͤQG VROXWLRQV ̚ KH VDLG
veteran housing observer Will Dunning wrote in an April 19 piece for The Globe and Mail. “Every home that’s caught our interest has gotten multiple offers and sold for more than we can afford (and sometimes for considerably more than my research tells me is their market value),� he stated. Dunning, who has kept track of Canadian housing since 1982, warned that scarcity in Toronto is placing more and more homes out of reach of a larger fraction of prospective buyers. “Data from the Toronto Real Estate Board and the Canadian Real Estate Association show that, over the past two decades, that ratio has averaged 61 per cent, meaning the market has been chronically undersupplied. The consequence is that during that same period, the average price for a resale home in Toronto rose by 5.9 per cent a year,� the analyst said.
8
Ephraim Vecina @ The Mortgage Broker News
Aprill 29, 2016
Prices For Single-Family Detached
Houses In Greater Vancouver Hit New Highs
Benchmark prices for single-family detached houses in
There were 3,345 sales in Greater Vancouver on the multiple
Greater Vancouver ascended to new highs last month.
listing service last month, up 14.5 per cent from a year earlier.
The Home Price Index (HPI) for detached properties in the
Board president Darcy McLeod said a range of factors is
region hit almost $1.18-million in September, up 18.9 per cent
influencing prices, notably a limited supply of listings. The
from the same period in 2014. On Vancouver’s west side, the
total number of listings of all residential property types in the
HPI rose 19.2 per cent over the past year to surpass
area has fallen 27 per cent over the past year.
$2.74-million while surging 22.5 per cent to $1.16-million on the east side.
“The number of homes listed for sale hasn’t been keeping up with the demand,� Mr. McLeod said in a statement Friday. “It’s
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver prefers to
this dynamic that’s placing upward pressure on home prices,
REAL ESTATE 101 & MORTGAGE INFORM ATION SESSION concentrate on the HPI, saying that averages skew the picture
particularly in the detached home market.�
because the most expensive properties are included. The
W H A benchmark T ’ S HPI isSa representation T O P Pof theI typical N GhouseYin anO U ? area, providing a better barometer of real estate trends than
G E T
I N
THUSRDAY, M AY 26TH, 2016 @ 6:30PM average resale prices, according to the board.
T H E
K N O W !
6948 Financial Drive
Mississauga ON L5N 8J4
The Greater Vancouver board’s territory covers a large portion Investing • Wealth Management • Risk Assessment • Crucial Housing Market Update • Local, National, Global Economics • Mortgage of Metro Vancouver, including Burnaby, Richmond and New
Westminster. Metro Vancouver is aat broader political entity that Contact TheTanTeam support@tanteam.com to register, seating is limited! has 23 members, including other suburbs such as Surrey, White Rock and Langley – whose sales fall under the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. The price for detached properties in Greater Vancouver last month averaged nearly $1.41-million, or an 11.5-per-cent LQFUHDVH VLQFH 6HSWHPEHU /DVW PRQWK̾V ͤJXUH IHOO MXVW shy of the record $1.47-million average in August. Industry experts say low interest rates, a healthy economy and population growth have fuelled the housing boom over the past three years. On the high end of the market for detached properties, there has been brisk demand from buyers who are from China, observers say. Dan Scarrow, vice-president of corporate strategy at MacdonDOG 5HDOW\ /WG HVWLPDWHV WKDW SHU FHQW RI KLV ͤUP̾V sales of detached houses, condos and townhouses within the city of Vancouver last year went to buyers from China. Of his ͤUP̾V VDOHV RI GHWDFKHG KRPHV LQ 9DQFRXYHU SURSHU ODVW year, 150 of the purchasers were from China, or 27.5 per cent, his analysis shows.
Brant Jang @ The Globe & Mail
October 02, 2015
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April 2016 GTA REALTORS® Release Monthly Resale Housing Figures Toronto Real Estate Board President Mark McLean announced
administration fee. The lack of available inventory, coupled
that there were 12,085 sales reported through TREB’s MLS®
with record sales, continued to translate into robust annual
System in April 2016. This result, which represented a record
rates of price growth,” continued Mr. McLean.
for the month of April, was up by 7.4 per cent in comparison to April 2015.
Home selling prices continued to trend upward in April. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 12.6
For the TREB market area as a whole, annual sales growth was
per cent year-over-year. The average selling price was up by
experienced for all major home types except semi-detached
16.2 per cent. The higher growth rate reported for the average
houses. In the City of Toronto, sales were down for detached
home price, as compared to the MLS® HPI, points to a greater
and semi-detached houses as well as townhouses on a
share of high-end home sales this year compared to last.
year-over-year basis. This dip in sales in the ‘416’ area code was due to a lack of low-rise listings. Many would-be buyers
“As we move into the busiest time of the year, in terms of sales
ZHUH QRW DEOH WR ͤQG D KRPH WKDW PHW WKHLU QHHGV
volume, strong competition between buyers will continue to push home prices higher. A greater supply of listings would
“Demand remained strong for all types of ownership housing.
certainly be welcome, but we would need to see a number of
This suggests that Canadians continue to see the value in
consecutive months in which listings growth outpaced sales
investing in homeownership, and on May 17, I encourage all
growth before market conditions become more balanced,” said
homeowners to celebrate with us on National Real Estate Day,”
Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.
said Mr. McLean. “While April’s sales result represented a new record for sales, WKDW QXPEHU FRXOG KDYH EHHQ HYHQ KLJKHU LI ZH KDG EHQHͤWWHG from more supply. In the City of Toronto in particular, some households have chosen not to list their home for sale because of the second substantial Land Transfer Tax and associated
Toronto Real Estate Board
May 04, 2016
15
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