October - November 2014 Volume 03 Issue 12
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ontents October • November 2014 Volume 03 Issue 12 Could Targeted Land Transfer Taxes Cool Canada’s Hottest Markets?
Data Show Home Prices Will Continue To Rise
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37 Kirkhaven Way - It’s Not Just Good Looking, It’s Comfortably Practical
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Real Estate Market On Pace For A Hot Start To Autumn
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Neighbourhoods Where Home Prices Have Gained Most In Canada’s Major Cities
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Vogue Names Toronto’s Queen Street West Wold’s Second-Hippest District
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Getting Squeezed By High House Prices? Head For The Suburbs
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October - November 2014 TanTeam Dream Listings
Sales and Average Price Growth Continued In September 2014
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Tan.gazine
Could Targeted Land Transfer Taxes
Cool Canada’s Hottest Markets? Ontario’s real estate association has launched an ad campaign to explain why they believe land transfer taxes hurt the economy. But in a hot housing market, could the tax be used to cool particular regions, such as Toronto and Vancouver? Officials in Ottawa have made it clear they see no need to cool the market right now. Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Wednesday that he doesn’t anticipate a housing crisis in Canada, although he says a small percentage of Canadians are overextended and vulnerable to rate hikes.
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But federal officials are exploring their options in case they change their minds. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. chief executive officer Evan Siddall noted Friday that CMHC has been evaluating further rule changes that it could recommend if house price growth remains strong or picks up. Former Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tightened the rules that determine which mortgages are eligible for insurance four times, beginning in 2008, in an effort to ease the market. He also took a number of other steps, along with both the banking
regulator and CMHC, to achieve that goal. There are still a wide range of things Ottawa could do, including raising minimum down payments. But one thing has increasingly become clear: The federal government has been using measures that affect Canadians from coast to coast in the same way, but the degree of overvaluation in local housing markets varies tremendously. Price gains in Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver are eclipsing those in much of the country, and some markets are downright sluggish. Could municipalities take the lead,
Tan.gazine Tara Perkins @ The Globe & Mail
September 25, 2014
with measures that are tailored to their markets? Enter the land transfer tax. No one is advocating this as the solution to inflated prices, but the idea of finding policies that zero in on the actual problem markets is worth a discussion. A number of provinces and cities in Canada already have land transfer taxes, which are paid by real estate buyers. Toronto’s land transfer tax is progressive in that it varies with the value of the property (0.5 per cent on the first $55,000, 1 per cent from $55,000 to $400,000 and 2 per cent over that). The Ontario Real Estate Association says that it amounts to about $4,000 for the average home. The Ontario Real Estate Association has launched its campaign about the negative impacts of the tax because municipal elections are in about a month. “Municipalities across Ontario are looking to the province for new revenue tools or taxes,” the association’s president, Costa Poulopoulos, said in a press release. “One of the tools being considered is a second [i.e., municipal, in addition to the provincial tax] land transfer tax on home buyers, similar to the tax imposed by the City of Toronto. This tax carries a huge cost – no Ontario city can afford the kind of job losses Toronto has experienced because of the
municipal land transfer tax.” The association points to a research study done by Altus Group, a real estate consultancy, that argues that Toronto’s land transfer tax, which has been in effect since 2008, has significantly slowed down home sales. It estimates that 38,278 resales didn’t take place between 2008 and 2013 because of the tax. A report by the C.D. Howe Institute has estimated that the tax reduced real estate transactions by about 16 per cent. The city of Toronto imposed the tax purely to raise money – but it sounds like something that would have made that late Mr. Flaherty pretty happy. “Depending on the size and structure of the tax levied, the LTT would lead to weakening in affordability and cool the housing market,” says Derek Burleton, deputy chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank. He added that a challenge for policy makers would be putting in place a tax that cools the market without tipping it toward a dramatic decline. For instance, if Toronto changed its land transfer tax or other cities imposed one at the same time as mortgage rates were rising, it could cause a major correction. What if the tax were temporary, and would automatically be repealed when mortgage rates hit a certain level? Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economist Benjamin Tal, while noting that he’s neither in favour nor against the idea, says such a tax could soften the impact of any future market correction by making the market more static. “And this is a more targeted way
of looking at things,” he says. The C.D. Howe Institute found that Toronto’s land transfer tax slowed down the lower-priced portion of the market more than the higher end (presumably because people at the lower end of the market are more sensitive to the added cost of the tax). But land transfer taxes could be applied to only a range of the market, for example homes that sell for more than $600,000. Mr. Burleton notes that “over the longer term, there are concerns that a LTT would reduce mobility of people, which would have a negative unintended consequence on job markets and economic growth.” Municipalities in Ontario, and generally elsewhere, require provincial permission to levy a land transfer tax, notes Finn Poschmann, vice-president of research at the C.D. Howe Institute. He also points out that the tax reduces the affordability of homes, making it harder for potential movers to buy a home that they might have otherwise, so it drives down the after-tax price of a home, other things being equal. “The LTT is a remarkably bad tax,” Mr. Poschmann says. “It keeps people where they are, as opposed to where they want to be, and blocks transactions that should have occurred – by definition, a nasty drag on the economy. And that makes it not a very good tool for dealing with a problem that you don’t and can’t know if you have.”
tanteam.com | 5
Tan.gazine
Data Show Home Prices
Will Continue To Rise
Policy makers in Ottawa have been taking some comfort from signs Canadian home prices have been moderating lately. They shouldn’t. If Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Diana Petramala is correct, home prices might be on their way up again. That would be disappointing news to those in Ottawa who, until recently, were fairly certain they had successfully steered the housing market toward a soft landing. Under that scenario house prices were supposed to slowly lose some steam, rather than go through a major correction. Most economists agree that home prices are inflated, and, coupled with high consumer debt levels, pose a risk to the economy. Ms. Petramala’s concerns are based on supply. The Canadian Real Estate Association, which represents realtors and tracks the market by way of the MLS, released data Monday that showed that the number of newly listed homes fell 1.2 per cent from July to August. “Led by Greater Toronto, new supply was down in about 60 per cent of local markets,” CREA said. The national sales-to-new-listings ratio, meanwhile, was 55.5 per cent, up from 53.9 per cent in July. It’s the
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Tara Perkins @ The Globe & Mail
September 16, 2014
fourth month in a row that it has increased. A ratio between 40 and 60 is considered a sign of a balanced market. Above 60 per cent it’s a seller’s market. A number of markets in British Columbia, Alberta and Southern Ontario are above 60 per cent. (Royal Bank of Canada economist Robert Hogue points to Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto and Vancouver as markets where sellers have the upper hand in setting prices). It would now take 5.8 months to sell all of the inventory that’s on the market nationally (at the current level of sales activity), down from six months in each of May, June and July. “The number of homes for sale have not kept up with demand and the market moved more in favour of sellers,” Ms. Petramala wrote in a research note. “We continue to be surprised by the lack of listings on the market. The sales-to-listings ratio has moved back to the level reached at the end of last year, when prices were growing 8 per cent to 9 per cent year-over-year. This suggests that following four months of moderation, home-price growth may catch a second wind through the fall months.”
Tan.gazine
Bank of Montreal Brings Back
The 2.99% Mortgage Canada’s housing market is again proving to be hotter than economists expected. The latest data on sales of existing homes across the country will be released by the Canadian Real Estate Board next week. But a number of local real estate boards have made their statistics available in recent days and the picture they paint is generally one of strength, especially in the highly-populated markets of Toronto and Vancouver. That comes as the housing market has been gaining steam in the wake of a sluggish winter during which unusually cold weather depressed sales. The comeback has been strong enough that TorontoDominion Bank’s economics department upgraded its expectations last week for home sales and prices this year – although it continues to predict that “the Canadian housing market will cool over the medium term. With five-year mortgage rates at record lows, the number of existing homes that sold in May shot up well above the 10-year average for the month, and “more strength may be bubbling under the surface,” TD economist Diana Petramala wrote in a research note. Indeed, here’s a rundown of some of the data from local boards that’s already available for June:
Tara Perkins @ The Globe & Mail
September 10, 2014
Montreal – Sales of existing homes in the Montreal area were 3 per cent higher than a year earlier. That marks the first year-over-year increase in sales in nine months. – Sales of single-family homes were up by 2 per cent, while sales of condos were up 8 per cent. – Sales on the Island of Montreal rose 10 per cent and those on the South Shore were up 2 per cent. Sales in Laval were down 2 per cent, on the North Shore 4 per cent lower, and in VaudreuilSoulanges they fell 1 per cent.
Toronto – Sales were up 15.4 per cent from a year earlier. A total of 10,180 homes changed hands over the Multiple Listing Service, well above the 10-year average for the month of 9,295. – The average selling price rose 7.4 per cent to $568,953. – The average number of days that a home is on the market before selling dropped to 22 days from 24 a year earlier. – Active listings fell 6.8 per cent.
– The median price of a singlefamily home rose 2 per cent to $291,000. That of condos was essentially flat at $234,525
tanteam.com | 7
Tan.gazine
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Tan.gazine
Real Estate Market On Pace For Hot Start To Autumn There are early indications that September appears to have been another strong month for Canadian home sales. That is based on data that some local real estate boards have released in recent days about how their housing markets fared last month. The number of existing homes that changed hands in Toronto was up 10.9 per cent from a year earlier, in Calgary it was up almost 12 per cent, and in Vancouver 17.7 per cent. And that’s in comparison to a reasonably strong month: sales in September, 2013, were slightly above the 10-year average for that month. A comprehensive picture won’t be available until the Canadian Real Estate Board, which represents realtors, compiles all of the local statistics and releases
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national September data on Oct. 15. Many cities have not released their numbers publicly yet, and the ones that have tend to be in some of the country’s stronger housing markets. Quebec and the Atlantic region, where more markets are struggling, are not represented below. But the strength of Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver’s housing markets tends to pull up the national averages, and so the numbers here suggest that the national figures will point to a market that still has momentum. TORONTO -Sales were up 10.9 per cent from a year earlier. So far this year sales in the city are 6.9 per cent higher than during the same period last year.
Tara Perkins @ The Globe & Mail
October 03, 2014
-The average selling price was $573,676, up 7.7 per cent from a year earlier. The average selling price year-to-date is $563,813, up 8.5 per cent from last year. -“If the current pace of sales growth remains in place, we could be flirting with a new record for residential sales reported by (Toronto Real Estate Board) members this year,” TREB’s director of market analysis, Jason Mercer, stated in a press release. -The average selling price of detached homes in the downtown area covered by the 416 area code was $951,792, up 11.5 per cent from a year earlier. For condos in the same area it was $395,505, up 9.2 per cent.
Tan.gazine
Neighbourhoods Where Home Prices Have Gained Most in Canada’s Major Cities When Canada’s national housing numbers are released Monday by the Canadian Real Estate Association, they’ll likely show some notable discrepancies between markets. Prices in Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver have been hot lately, but not so much in other areas. But that’s not the whole story. Even within cities, the variations in how different neighbourhoods have fared can be significant. So Brookfield RPS pored through its data for some of Canada’s major centres for The Globe and Mail and determined which areas (it breaks them down by the first three digits of their postal code) have had the strongest price appreciation over the last five years. Top bragging rights go to those people who bought detached houses in Vancouver’s Dunbar neighbourhood in 2009, where the average price has more than doubled. Find a map with information about these exact neighbourhoods at the bottom of this article. Here’s what the team at Brookfield RPS found:
Toronto: The top neighbourhoods for price growth of detached houses in Canada’s most populous city were Willowdale, Agincourt and Newtonbrook. Average prices in all of these neighbourhoods combined rose by 75 per cent over five years. The top areas for condo price growth were the Fairview Mall neighbourhood, Cabbagetown and the area around Church and Wellesley Streets. Collectively their condo prices rose by 47 per cent. That compares to average price growth of 43 per cent for all types of properties throughout the city. At the moment, prices of detached homes in Toronto’s downtown core are outperforming
Tara Perkins @ The Globe & Mail
September 12, 2014
those in the surrounding areas. The average price of a detached home in the central 416-area-code was up 14.7 per cent year-over-year in August, while the average price of a detached home in the suburban 905-area-code rose by 9.3 per cent, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board. The same trend does not hold true for condos, because the plethora of new towers under construction in the downtown core has been constraining prices. The average resale price of existing condos downtown rose by 4.1 per cent in August, while those in the 905 area rose by 5.4 per cent.
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Tan.gazine
Vogue Names Toronto’s Queen Street West
Michael Babad @ The Globe & Mail
World’s Second-Hippest District Vogue has named Toronto’s Queen Street West the second-hippest district in the world. In a study of the globe’s 15 coolest neighbourhoods, the magazine ranks the Canadian district as second only to Tokyo’s Shimokitazawa. “Toronto is currently enjoying newfound prominence – and desirability – amongst globe-trotting tastemakers,” Vogue’s Nick Remsen writes on the magazine’s website. “Queen Street West is a verifiable artery of indie patisseries, homegrown labels, and hidden-from-view galleries –
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hallmarks of hipness, if ever they existed,” he said, highlighting the publication’s September issue. “It’s also the home of the Museum of Contemporary Canadian art, well-established ‘art’ hotels The Drake and the Gladstone, and the charming Bicyclette, a local clothing boutique and lifestyle brand whose owners love ‘glitter, DIY projects, treasure hunts and details,” it adds. “Soho House Toronto is nearby, as is Grafitti Alley a block where street art is both 100-per-cent legal and lauded.” (It’s also a few blocks north of The Globe And Mail, but the magazine failed to mention that.)
September 09, 2014
So what does Tokyo’s Shimokitazawa have that Toronto doesn’t? “The area has all the nuance and niche of pop Japanese culture, without the neon and the frenzy.” After Toronto come Stockholm’s Södermalm, Singapore’s Tiong Bahru, São Paulo’s Centro, Canal Saint-Marin in Paris, New York’s Bushwick, Milan’s Brera, Miami’s Wynwood, Zona Rosa and La Condesa of Mexico City, Melbourne’s Fitzroy, the Silver Lake area of Los Angeles, London’s Hackney, Berlin’s Kreuzberg, and the Dashanzi Art District in Beijing.
Tan.gazine
Getting Squeezed By High House Prices?
Head For The Suburbs
Dan Wesley and his wife bought a two-storey, three-bedroom house in the Calgary suburbs two years ago. They paid more than $450,000 for their 2,000-square-foot new home. A comparably sized house closer to the city’s core would have cost $750,000 at the time, raising their monthly mortgage payments to $2,700 from $1,650. “If I was 10 years younger and just starting out, I would likely live closer to downtown,” said the 31-year-old chartered accountant and author of the Our Big Fat Wallet blog. But he and his wife plan to start a family soon and did not want a shoebox in the city – they were looking for multiple bedrooms and a yard. “The big trade-off, of course, is the commute,” he said of their decision to buy on the outskirts of town. Mr. Wesley’s wife drives to her job as a teacher in a neighbouring suburb while he works downtown, a 30-minute journey on rapid transit. In order for him to get to the train station, the couple bought a second car. Despite the cost of the extra vehicle, as well as the monthly transit pass and parking, Mr. Wesley says they still save $900 a month by living farther out. Given the steep run-up in downtown house prices, particularly in Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary, many Canadians are looking to the suburbs – and increasingly the outer suburbs – in their search for affordable housing. Living in the suburbs often means owning two cars and commuting farther to work, which can eat into the savings afforded by the smaller mortgage. David Fleming, a real estate agent with Bosley Real Estate and writer of the Toronto Realty Blog, says more people are considering leaving the city for
Roma Luciw @ The Globe & Mail
October 07, 2014
suburbia. “I have many clients who are asking themselves: Do we live in a two-bedroom, two-bathroom for $500,000 or do we move out of the city and get a five-bedroom, four-bathroom for $500,000?” “There is no magic one solution,” he says. The decision boils down to the amount of space people want, the size of the mortgage, the length of the work commute, and also the lifestyle, which is very different in the suburbs compared to downtown. For some people, the idea of “driving an hour to and from work each day is a fate worse than death,” Mr. Fleming says. But others, such as those who work at home or have flexible hours at the office, love the idea of buying a house in Orillia for $300,000 that would have cost them $1-million in Toronto. Staying in the city or moving to the suburbs can make good financial sense depending on one’s situation, says Barbara Garbens, a chartered financial planner in Toronto. Home buyers who are young, single and career-oriented might want to live in a small downtown condo if it means they can walk to work and socialize in the evenings, she says. But once people marry and start to think about having children, they tend to want bigger homes near good schools, parks and other family-oriented infrastructure. Ms. Garbens says people should be careful not to saddle themselves with cumbersome monthly payments. “People who buy more than they can afford get stuck in a loop where all they are doing is paying off their mortgage. They have no extra money left over to enjoy life.” Tsur Somerville, a professor at the University of British Columbia who studies urban economics and real estate, says housing affordability is different in each
tanteam.com | 13
Tan.gazine
-Continued from previous page
Canadian city. But generally speaking, “further suburbs are more affordable and closer suburbs are less affordable.” House prices in the downtown west end of Vancouver rose 11 per cent a year between 2009 and 2014. That compares to a 4-per-cent comparable rise among houses on the outlying Fraser Valley area. “What has happened is that certain areas have gotten dramatically less affordable when compared to others,” Mr. Somerville says. Mr. Somerville’s advice for people looking for an affordable home is to be open-minded. “People tend to be very fixed on the idea that this is how I am living and must continue to live. What ends up happening is that they find out there are different things that are appealing about different locations.”
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He urges buyers to at least take a look at housing they might not have necessarily considered, both in terms of location and size. “A lot of people who do that end up being happy wherever it is they buy,” Mr. Somerville says. Mr. Wesley has no regrets about his move to Calgary’s suburbs. Although there are things he dislikes about where he lives – such as having to drive everywhere, even to the corner store – he feels the pluses far outweigh the minuses. He and his wife have a big yard, an unfinished basement and enough room for their future family to grow. And the money they are saving each month through the smaller mortgage is going toward retirement – and perhaps a holiday.
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Tan.gazine Sales and Average Price Growth Continued in September In September, the median price was $573,676 from the $532,455 recorded during September of 2013 TORONTO, October 3, 2014 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced that there were 8,051 transactions reported through the TorontoMLS system in September 2014. This result represented a 10.9 per cent increase compared to September 2013. On a year-to-date basis through the first three quarters of the year, sales were up by 6.9 per cent annually to 73,465. "Despite a persistent shortage of listings in some market segments, we have experienced strong growth in sales though the first nine months of 2014. This is evidence that GTA households remain upbeat about purchasing a home. The majority of home buyers purchase a home using a mortgage. The share of the average household's income dedicated to their mortgage payment remains affordable, which is why buyer interest has remained solid," said Mr. Etherington.
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The average selling price for September 2014 transactions was $573,676 – up by 7.7 per cent compared to the same period in 2013. Average year-over-year price growth was strongest in the City of Toronto, both for low-rise home types like detached and semi-detached houses and for condominium apartments. The average selling price year-to-date was $563,813 – up 8.5 per cent compared to the first nine months of 2013. "If the current pace of sales growth remains in place, we could be flirting with a new record for residential sales reported by TREB Members this year. On the pricing front, the multitude of willing buyers in the marketplace coupled with the short supply of listings will continue to translate into very strong annual rates of price growth in the fourth quarter," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.
Tan.gazine Greater Toronto REALTORS® Report October 2014 Mid-Month Resale Market Figures TORONTO, August 18, 2014 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced mid-month figures for August 2014 that point to continued strength in the GTA housing market. There were 3,504 sales reported through the TorontoMLS system during the first 14 days of August. This result was up by 7.6 per cent compared to the same period in August 2013. “Sales were up strongly for all major home types across the GTA through the first two weeks of August. This means that many different types of buyers were active in the marketplace, including first-time buyers purchasing newly listed condominium apartments and existing homeowners changing their housing situation to meet their current needs,” said Mr. Etherington. Tight market conditions, especially for
detached and semi-detached houses, drove strong price growth in the first half of August. The overall average selling price was up by 9.4 per cent year-over-year to $538,530. The strongest price growth was experienced in the detached market segment, with the average detached price up by 12.3 per cent year-over-year. “During the first 14 days of August, the number of home sales grew at a faster pace year-over-year compared to the number of homes listed for sale. This means that competition between buyers increased relative to the same period last year, which explains the continuation of very strong average price growth in the GTA,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.
Greater Toronto REALTORS® Report
October 2014 Mid-Month Resale Market Figures
TBA SHORTLY! Kindly Check Back On October 20, 2014
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