AG INSIGHT
AG INSIGHT BY J I M E R I C K S O N
War in Ukraine cuts wheat production; Canadian output predicted higher Ukraine wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is estimated at 19.5 million metric tons, down 9% from last month, and down 41% from last year. USDA crop production estimates for Ukraine include estimated output from Crimea. Yield is estimated at 3.71 tons per hectare, down 1% from last month and 17% from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 5.3 million hectares, down 10% from last month and 29% from last year. USDA forecasts Canada wheat production for mar-
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Cooperative Farming News
keting year 2022/23 at 34.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.0 mmt or 3% from last month, 57% over last year and 12% above the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 10.0 million hectares, up 3% from last month, 8% from last year, and 5% above the 5-year average. Yield is forecast at 3.40 metric tons per hectare, unchanged from last month and up 45% over last year. .
War also has impact on fertilizer prices
Global fertilizer prices are at near record levels and may remain elevated throughout 2022 and beyond. Fertilizer accounts for nearly one-fifth of U.S. farm cash costs, with an even greater share for corn and wheat producers. Fertilizer accounts for 36% of a farmer's operating costs for corn, and 35% for wheat. These elevated prices could have implications for crop production in 2022 and 2023. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated the already limited fertilizer supply situation and has triggered import-export restrictions that will compound shortage concerns. The United States is a significant producer of nitrogen and phosphorus yet imports large quantities of potassium-based fertilizers. Although fertilizer prices began increasing in 2021, many U.S. producers were able to avoid the later surge in prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, because fertilizers for 2022 were purchased in 2021. However, as the Russia-Ukraine war continues, the impact of fertilizer prices could likely take a heavier toll on 2023 agricultural production decisions, domestically and abroad. Current fertilizer price increases are reminiscent of the Great Recession period when prices nearly doubled across all major fertilizer
