Ag Insight

BY JIM ERICKSON

Population changes to shape food demand

The number of people who call the United States home continues to grow. Results from the most recent decennial census show that the U.S. population increased from about 309 million people in 2010 to about 331 million in 2020.

Projections released by the U.S. Census Bureau put the United States on track to reach more than 400 million inhabitants by 2060. Foreign-born residents are forecast to account for about 17% of the total U.S. population in 2060, up from 14% in 2020. Native-born residents, including children of immigrants, are expected to account for 83%.

According to projections, as immigrants arrive from Asia and Latin America, the United States will grow more racially and ethnically diverse. Between 2020 and 2060, the Census Bureau predicts that individuals of Hispanic origin will grow from 19% to 29% of the total population. Non-Hispanic Blacks are forecast to rise from 12% to 13%. Non-Hispanic Asians are predicted to increase from 6% to 9%. And non-Hispanic Whites are predicted to decrease from 57% to 44% of the total population.

These changes in population will likely reshape the types of foods people eat in the United States and how foods are consumed. Many factors, such as income, prices, age, household size and nutrition knowledge, shape a household’s food needs and choices. Along with these factors, race and ethnicity often play a role in food choices and may be associated with deep-rooted food customs.

Since the early 2000s, the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) has been examining how trends in the U.S. population might reshape food consumption and diet quality.

As the population diversifies, the demand for some agricultural commodities also changes. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) are widely used to study U.S. food consumption patterns and trends.

A USDA-supported survey component, called What We Eat in America, asks individuals to report all foods and beverages consumed over two nonconsecutive days.

Food consumption records provided by 2011–18 NHANES participants confirm that individuals identify-

ing with different racial and ethnic groups vary in their food choices.

On a per-person, per-day basis, non-Hispanic Asians consumed the most fruits (1.24-cup equivalents), vegetables (1.62-cup equivalents), and seafood (1.06-ounce equivalents).

Hispanics consumed the most meat (1.62-ounce equivalents). Non-Hispanic Blacks ate the most poultry (1.98-ounce equivalents). Non-Hispanic Whites consumed the most dairy products (1.79-cup equivalents).

While differences in income, household size, and other factors likely drive some of the above relationships, deep-rooted food customs also appear to be a factor in these patterns.

Similar to current NHANES data, a 2003 study by USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) confirmed that non-Hispanic Asians consume more seafood than other racial and ethnic groups after controlling for other factors. The same study also correctly predicted that as the Asian American population grew, the U.S. seafood demand would grow faster in the 2000s and 2010s than the demand for meat and poultry.

A 2021 ERS study used food consumption records provided by 2003-18 NHANES participants for a longrun perspective on how U.S. fluid cow’s milk consumption has been changing over time. Among other findings, the researchers confirmed that non-Hispanic Whites drink more fluid cow’s milk than other racial and ethnic groups controlling for age, gender, education and other potentially complicating factors.

The study also identified that non-Hispanic Whites account for a shrinking share of the overall population, which is a contributing factor in declining U.S. per capita milk consumption.

As the U.S. population further diversifies with a growing share of Asian, non-Hispanic and Hispanic people, domestic demand for agricultural products and overall diet quality in the nation will likely also continue to shift. Even as new immigrants acculturate and adopt the eating patterns of native-born U.S. citizens of their same racial ethnic background, food demand and diet quality differences remain among racial and ethnic groups. Food consumption patterns and diet quality measures broken down by racial and ethnic groups continue to be informative for policymakers and other decision-makers.

Chile seen as promising market for U.S. ag exports

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service concludes that Chile remains the largest South American consumer-oriented market for U.S. exporters.

Increasing wealth, lower barriers to entry, and the modern Chilean economy present opportunities for increased agricultural trade as COVID-19 restrictions and social-political tensions ease.

This economic recovery has also attracted increased competition, especially from the European Union, Brazil, and Argentina; but premium U.S. products including beer, distilled spirits, pork and pork products, cheese, and specialty beef cuts hold potential for Chilean growth in the retail sector as well as the hotel, restaurant, and institutional sector, the FAS asserts.

Although Chile has a relatively small population of 19.7 million people, it is the second-largest market in South America for U.S. agricultural products after Colombia, and the largest South American market for U.S. consumer-oriented agricultural products ($886.4 million in 2021).

Chile’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 12% in 2021. The Chilean Central Bank projects a 1.5 to 2.5% GDP growth rate for 2022. Throughout this time, Chile has maintained highest per capita GDP, adjusted for purchasing power parity, in South America.

War in Ukraine, other global factors push ag commodity prices higher

A number of factors have converged over the last 18 months to send global agricultural commodity prices to near-record levels. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and the potential loss of Ukrainian exports – was the latest development to push commodity prices higher.

Other factors affecting global markets, which date back to late 2020, include: increased global demand, led by China; drought-reduced supplies; tightening wheat, corn and soybean stocks in major exporting countries; high energy prices pushing up the costs of fertilizer, transportation, and agricultural production; and countries imposing export bans and restrictions, further tightening supplies.

As observed during the food price crises of 2008 and 2012, developing countries that are dependent on food imports are the most vulnerable to food insecurity. Such countries tend to respond to price signals by shifting consumption and trade patterns, while larger exporting nations respond by increasing production to meet demand. However, the geopolitical turmoil of a war between two major agricultural

exporting countries, including the world’s largest fertilizer exporter (Russia), adds additional uncertainty and concern to today’s situation.

Air Force cargo aircraft haul infant formula

U.S. Air Force Airmen assigned to the 721st Aerial Port Squadron recently placed pallets of infant formula at Ramstein Air Base, Germany. The infant formula arrived from Switzerland as part of the U.S. Government’s Operation Fly Formula to rapidly transport infant formula to the United States due to critical shortages there.

The formula was loaded and transported to Plainfield, Indiana, via a U.S. Air Force C-17 Globemaster III coordinated by U.S. Transportation Command and Air Mobility Command.

USDA to lead federal effort to boost rural economy

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Tom Vilsack and White House Domestic Policy Advisor Susan Rice today announced a new whole-of-government effort led by USDA to transform the way federal agencies partner with rural places to create economic opportunity in rural America.

The USDA-led Rural Partners Network (RPN) is an all-of-government program that will help rural communities access government resources and funding to create jobs, build infrastructure and support longterm economic stability.

“Rural America is incredibly diverse – economically, racially, culturally and geographically.” Vilsack said. “What makes sense for one community may not for another. The Rural Partners Network will help communities get funding for investments that create long-lasting benefits for their communities, especially those that have been overlooked in the past.

“By providing one-on-one support to these communities, we can lay the foundation for people to build healthy, successful futures on their own terms.”

Summer increases need for safe food handling

As summertime brings families and friends together for outdoor celebrations, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) wants to make sure your summer festivities are food safe. Whether you’re grilling burgers, camping, or having a picnic, everyone should always remember to practice proper handwashing and use a food thermometer.

After observing that consumer behavior in test kitchens revealed that people are skipping basic food safety practices, USDA is concerned that consumers are not doing enough to reduce the risk of foodborne illness.

“Our research shows that participants were not adequately washing their hands or using a food thermometer,” says USDA Deputy Under Secretary for Food Safety Sandra Eskin. “Summer is a time to relax and enjoy delicious meals with friends and family, but foodborne pathogens never rest. Following safe food handling practices during this and all other seasons can reduce the risk of you and your loved ones getting sick.”

TM