ALASKA TRENDS

The impacts of COVID-19 on Alaska’s economy are myriad, and the combined action plans of federal and state governments in responding to the pandemic have been equally multifaceted. Loan forgiveness programs, relief activity, and early permanent fund dividend distribution are a few of the tactics that government officials employed to keep Alaska’s economy running.

Staying abreast of what’s happening during the pandemic—case numbers, statewide health mandates, unemployment statistics—is a daunting task. This month in Alaska Trends we provide an overview of a few key statistics and COVID-19 response efforts. While much of the information is unsettling, there are some positive spots to consider. For example, compared to the beginning of the pandemic, current unemployment numbers have almost been cut in half. And what we can’t see in this data is the incredibly hard work going on behind the scenes to both secure economic opportunities and safeguard the health of every Alaskan.

COVID-19 IN ALASKA

The timeline below looks at the health of the economy, Alaska's daily COVID-19 case count, and the state's responses in the first six months of the pandemic.

Statewide Health Mandates Daily Active COVID-19 Cases Unemployment1

Relief Fund Activity

March 19 SBA EIDL available for businesses affected by COVID-19

March 26 HB 308 signed by Governor Mike Dunleavy expanding unemployment insurance benefits

March 27 CARES Act signed by President Donald Trump April 27 Additional $310 million allocated to PPP; reopens to loan applications

March 27 Health Mandate 011 orders all Alaskans to stay in place

March 31 Employee Retention Credit launched by IRS

April 2 AK Safe Program launched

April 3 PPP applications accepted - small businesses

April 8 AK DNR suspends/ extends certain fees

April 10 PPP applications accepted - independent contractors & self employed May 12 $1.5 billion of Alaska CARES Act funds distributed

May 22 Alaska moves to phase 3 allowing for 75% capacity in businesses May 28 AK Cares program grants made available

3/183/173/16 3/253/243/233/223/213/20 3/303/293/283/27 4/1 4/4 4/5 4/6 4/7 4/9 4/264/254/244/234/224/214/204/194/184/174/164/154/144/134/124/11 4/304/294/28 5/1 5/2 5/3 5/4 5/5 5/6 5/7 5/8 5/9 5/115/10 5/215/205/195/185/175/165/155/145/13 5/275/265/255/245/23 5/315/305/29 6/1 6/2 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/306/296/286/276/266/256/246/236/226/216/206/196/186/176/166/156/146/136/126/116/10 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/97/10 3/19 3/26 3/31 4/2 4/3 4/8 4/10 4/27 5/12 5/22 5/28

45,776 April Unemployment 42,378 May Unemployment 42,709 June Unemployment

IMPACT AND RECOVERY

The first month of the pandemic prompted unemployment claims that broke records, and the long-term effects on the economy will be significant; however, the October 2020 issue of Alaska Economic Trends projects 5.5 percent employment growth for Alaska over the next nine years.

2018-2020 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR ALASKA

Growth despite change Restaurants will recover in the long run, growing 12.7% by 2028. Dining preferences will change to reflect increased demand in take-out and delivery options. Population growth will also buoy restaurants in the coming years. More or less on track General stores, including warehouse clubs and supercenters, remain strong with an estimated growth of 7.7% by 2028. Miscellaneous retailers, like pet stores and thrift stores, have the hightest projected growth rate of 15.8% by 2028. Slower but strong Healthcare is still anticipated to experience strong growth with a predicted growth rate of 10.3%. This continues to be twice the projected national rate due to Alaska's aging population and continued expansion into rural hubs.

July 1 PFD early distribution August 21 AK Cares program expands eligibility requirements

6/306/296/286/276/266/256/246/23 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 7/317/307/297/287/277/267/257/247/237/227/217/207/197/187/177/167/157/147/137/127/117/10 8/1 8/2 8/3 8/4 8/5 8/6 8/7 8/8 8/9 8/208/198/188/178/168/158/148/138/128/118/10 8/318/308/298/288/278/268/258/248/238/22 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 10/2610/2510/2410/2310/2210/2110/2010/1910/1810/1710/1610/1510/1410/1310/1210/1110/1010/910/810/710/610/510/410/310/210/19/309/299/289/279/269/259/249/239/229/219/209/199/189/179/169/159/149/139/129/119/10 8/21

39,672 July Unemployment 24,217 August Unemployment 23,836 September Unemployment