Alexzandra Lizama Forecasting For Product Development London College of Fashion Spring 2014
Part One: Relevant Terms for Trend Forecasting Why is it important to trend forecast for product development? Trend forecasting is essential for the process of product development because when developing products, the main focus must always be what is going to sell well in the future. In order to determine what types of designs, styles, colors, and fabrics to use for the products that are in the process of development, trend forecasting must be used to find out what the consumers will want to be buying when these products will be released. Trend forecasting helps guarantee good sales and profits for coming seasons. What is intellectual intuition? Intellectual intuition is essentially a fact-driven hypothesis on what trends will become popular in upcoming seasons. Intuition is your individual inclination towards a trend based on your previous knowledge and heart. To make this intellectual, the trend forecast must be validated in some manner based on previous sales analysis and using cultural cues to predict what will be the next up and coming trendy styles. What is cultural triangulation? Defined by Martin Raymond, cultural triangulation is the interaction between intuition, or your raw talent, observation, using ethnographic and interrogative studies and interrogation using qualitative and quantitative analysis from both primary and secondary research. Thus, you are using a combination of cultural information sources to help predict future trends. Trend tracking Trend tracking is the process of searching for the trends within fashion and culture. In order to trendtrack, you must follow both fashion and culture blogs, magazines, explore ‘trendy’ areas of cities and find out what trend hosts and cool people are doing in all major fashion cities of the world. An example of trend tracking would be wandering the back streets of Soho and detecting similarities in the styles developing.
Cool Hunting Cool Hunting is finding the ‘cool’ people rather than searching for trends. The cool and trendy people tend to be cultural leaders, and thus they will lead you to the up and coming trends. Trends do not have a stable basis without ‘cool’ people being early adopters. Therefore, by finding who is cool, you will find out what the next cool thing will be. This is an essential concept to understand in order to successfully trend track. By going to Shoreditch and Dalston, you can find the natural leaders that begin the trends in places, styles and culture.
3 Times Rule The three times rule is a method of proving that a trend is valid and relevant. To do this, you must find three examples with noticeable characteristics of the trend in different non-related areas such as fashion, architecture, music, art, and interior design. For example when doing a three times rule analysis of ombre, you could find three examples in hair, three examples in purses, and three examples in nail design and makeup to prove that the trend is relevant.
Cross Cultural Analysis Cross-Cultural Analysis is the process of looking outside of the immediate fashion market for trends and cultural cues. It is a process of ‘thinking outside of the box’ by looking for cultural brailling, or trending bumps, across different industry sectors to determine if a trend spotted in one industry is emerging in various others. An example of cross-cultural analysis would have been recognizing that the transparency trend within technology and architecture had great potential to trickle down into fashion trends.
The Immediate Picture The immediate picture is a short-sighted approach to fashion, and the way that the average consumer views it. It is what is popular and trendy and right now. The problem is that product development happens far in advance rather than in the immediate time period. To see the immediate picture among young women in London, I can walk into Topshop and analyze the current trends that the average consumer in this age group is coveting. The Bigger Picture The bigger picture is looking past what is happening right now to see how trends and culture are evolving and emerging. When looking at the bigger picture, an analysis of the current political, economic, social and technological environment will help determine what the next big things are going to be. This ‘bigger picture’ of fashion and trends will help you trend forecast what will be popular in upcoming seasons. It is essential to look at the bigger picture during the process of product development to have valid evidence of what is likely to sell well, therefore ensuring good sales and profits in the long run. For example, when the worldwide economic crisis occurred in 2007, trend immediately headed towards minimalistic styles and quality that lasts for several seasons rather than buying show-y fast fashion that goes out of style. Looking at the bigger picture would mean that I would detect this gradual change before and as it was happening. In relation to a fashion collection- what is historical evidence? why is this used? Historical evidence is a series of number patterns on what styles, colors, patterns, and fabrics have sold well in previous seasons. It is used to help better understand a company’s target market and what they like. However, the ‘trendier’ a store, the less historical evidence should influence future lines. This is because these stores have consumers who want the what is the newest trendy item, which tends to be different from season to season. Despite this, it is still an essential part of trend forecasting and product development for all brands and companies. A perfect example of this comes from a store I work at, Lucky Brand Jeans. They carry many different jean fits designed for different body types. The information about how well each fit sells is essential for creating the new lines and subsequently deciding which fits to carry on and which to discontinue.
The Palace of Versailles, Versailles France
Part II: Photographic Inspiration: The Palace of Versailles Wandering the halls of the Palace of Versailles is an unforgettable experience. Each detail of the walls, ceilings, and vast decoration was made with exquisite detail and intensive labor. The Baroque style architecture, heavy gold ornamentation, and extravagant character have inspired the tales of aristocracy that surround French culture.
Therefore, in my storyboard on the following slide, I aimed to capture the ornate elegance through color scheme involving gold leafing with sky blue, cream and black accents. Baroque inspiration has gone in and out of popularity, with Jody Parchment MA collection bringing baroque architecture to the forefront in 2010 with the platform shoes shown. For spring/ summer 2012 Versace did a gold leafed corset-dress that was kept modern by its transparency. In Autumn/ Winter 2012, Baroque inspired runway looks showed up everywhere, as seen by Lanvin’s sky blue and gold embroidery on a cream dress, Balmain’s extravagant and structured 3/4 shirt with heavy gold, black, and sky blue ornamentation, Vivienne Westwood’s sky This fixated shot of a doorframe blue and gold embellished dress with a soft detailing shows the smooth and flowy silhouette, and Dolce and flowing texture and beauty that Gabanna’s black sunglasses with heavy went into every stroke of gold leafing on the rims. Currently, Valentin carving and paint. I fell in love Yudashkin has found inspiration for her with the soft licks of glossy gold Spring/ Summer 2014 collection from Baroque, creating a modern spin on the and sky blue leafing, and chose traditional look with sequining, to work this for its decadence transparency, and a deep V at the and allure. décolletage.
Versace S/S 2012
Jody Parchment MA 2010
Dolce & Gabbana Fall 2012
Valentin Yudashkin S/S 2014
B a l m a i n A / W 2 0 1 2
Vivienne Westwood A/W 2012
L a n v i n A / W 2 0 1 2
S/S ’15: Elemental Innovation and Raw Texture A major trend for spring/ summer 2015 is about modern aesthetics that are inspired by nature. Layers of raw contrasting textures, transparent detailings, and flowy silhouettes will take center stage. The theme is largely a backlash on the austerity of globalization, taking its inspiration from the elemental aspects of the Earth and both natural and animalistic textures. The result will be unexpected combinations which will leave you with the feeling that innovation will always be inspired by what is natural and pure.
C O L O R P A L E T T E
Elemental Innovation and Raw Textures
White Marble
Pale Lilac
Nude Pink
Muted Plum
Ballet Pink
Custard
Mediterranean Blue
Steel Blue
Sand
Heather Gray
Taupe
Midnight
F/W 2014 Milly
Trend-Tracking The evolution of raw texture layering and elemental patterns and silhouettes
Nina Ricci
Flowy silhouettes, elemental colors, and texture layering
Layered fur, feather, transparent, and flowy textures
Layered soft, touchable textures and neutral earth tones
Helmut Lang
S/S 2014
Inspired by the Earth and elements
Blogger Rumi Neely of FashionToast layering a transparent top with wool and fur trimmings
Phillip Lim
Olivia Palermo
Cool Hunting
F a s h i o n W e e k S t r e e t
Girl Spotted @ London Fashion Week
S t y l e
Tumblr Famous Erika Bowes Searching the streets of New York, Paris, London, and Milan for this generations trendsetters Mary-Kate Olsen
Poppy Delevigne
Three Times Rule: Raw Texture and Elemental Inspiration Raw, Disheveled, and Heavily Textured Hair Rachel Zoe S/S ‘14
Photography Trend: Microscopic Photos Salt
Paper Stamp
Raw Textured Shoes Francesco Russo S/S ‘14
Rocha S/S ‘14 Feather Flats
Sand
Rag & Bone S/S ‘14
Christopher Kane Giambattista Valli ‘14 S/S ‘14
Edun F/W ‘14 Furry Lace Shell-Toes
Cross-Cultural Analysis
Quietly Neutral Landscapes
Climate Issues take Center Stage: Cape Wind and Deepwater Wind vye to be first offshore wind farm in the US during 2014.
Russell Crotty, Watch the Dolphins Play, ballpoint pen and watercolor on paper on a fiberglass sphere. This year, this layering medium for the abstract art genre is becoming trendy.
In photography, minimalist and monotone imagery of nature are trending. This 2014 photo series, Wander by Akos Major follows this signature style. As backlash on the increasing cold sterility of technology, tactile slowproduction designs for electronic cases are trending. Bioelectric by Jeonwong Ji uses organic water, a glycerin mixture, and Chinese Mitten Crab to make these cases.
A major trend in all sectors is refocusing on local communities and environments.
Sustainability is a trend that has been on the rise for several seasons, and shows no signs of disappearing. It is becoming increasingly important to consumers.
The ancient grain quinoa and the paleo diet are trending again for this year. The new trending vegetable for 2014 is cauliflower, and it is popping up in recipes and on menus everywhere. Food going back to its source is a huge theme for foodies.
Natural Textures and Elemental Design
Cross-Cultural Analysis cont. Interior Design
Architectural Trends
Elements of passive homes built to work with the climate are trending for 2014 in the US. Examples include a roof pitched to make use or wind power or large windows installed to attract sunlight and heat into the home. Passive home’s can decrease energy consumption by up to 30%.
Spa bathrooms are increasing in popularity as a way to create tranquility and a relaxation place within the house. This trend is a result of more people travelling and staying in nice hotels.
Luxurious fabrics such as velvet, earthy suede, and textured corduroy are in style. The color schemes include saturated earthy colors to brighten otherwise neutral rooms. Natural materials such such as leather and cowhide are also on trend.
Nature-infused textural homes are trending, mixing authentic vintage touches with warm but modern aesthetics.