Thecaliberns(it elec)

Vol. XXVI

September 27 - October 2, 2017 The Rise of Public Opinion in Philippine Politics and Society

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Something Old, Something New: Voter mobilisation in the Philippines

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emocracy in the Philippines has been described variously in terms of “factionalism” and “clientelism”, “caciquism” and “bossism” but the overall pattern has been clear (Landé 1964; Scott 1972; Anderson 1988; Sidel 1999). Elected politicians have been drawn from the landowning, commercial and industrial oligarchy of the archipelago, representing its interests both directly and through delegation. Competition for political office has revolved around contestation for the spoils of state power between rival families and factions within this ruling class. Poverty and economic insecurity have combined with a highly decentralized political structure to render the majority of Filipinos susceptible to clientelist, coercive, and monetary inducements and pres The Politics of “Public Opinion” in the Philippines 101 sures during elections. Meanwhile, the prominent role of money in Philippine elections – for buying votes, bribing officials, and otherwise oiling the machinery – has created a structural imperative of fund-raising that guarantees politicians’ continuing use of state powers and resources for personal and particularistic benefit and their abiding reliance on landowners, merchants, bankers, and industrialists for financial backing. Small wonder that observers have been most impressed by the continuities in this seemingly seamless system of oligarchical democracy in the Philippines, as seen in the close attention paid to “political dynasties” that have dominated municipalities, congressional

districts, and in some cases entire provinces across several generations and many decades (McCoy 1993). Of course, efforts aimed at challenging or circumventing such established political dynamics through alternative forms of voter mobilisation are not new to the Philippines. During what may be termed “critical elections,” the mobilisation of – voluntarist, nonpartisan, patriotic – national citizens campaigns for “free and fair elections” have helped to energise opposition bids for the presidency against a continuista incumbent with seemingly authoritarian tendencies and ambitions. Such campaigns accompanied the 1953, 1969, and 1986 elections. These “critical elections” have enjoyed a close affinity with the demonstrations of “People Power” that helped to unseat a president in 1986 and, again, in 2001 (Hedman 2001; 2006). Since the restoration of formal democratic institutions and practices in 1986, however, the Philippines has seen a more gradual and limited transformation in the mobilisation of voters. This change is inextricably linked with the increasing circulation in Philippine politics and society of what is commonly referred to as “public opinion.”

As argued in this paper, the sheer accumulation and anticipation of surveys, reflecting back to the (disaggregated) public their (aggregated) opinion, have become inextricably linked to dynamics of bandwagoning, as well as to efforts at what scholars have described as “political branding” (Pasotti 2009). Before turning to a closer analysis of the rise of public opinion as continue on page 3...

t is in the wider context of such social, economic and institutional change that “public opinion” has gained greater circulation as political discourse and social fact in Philippine politics and society, with the popularity and poll ratings of candidates – rather than the construction and maintenance of 104 Eva-Lotta E. Hedman machines – viewed as an increasingly effective and decisive mode of voter mobilisation. This trend is perhaps most evident in the close correspondence between pre-election surveys and the performance of presidential contenders at the polls in the 2010 elections. However, the rise of public opinion has also come to influence the process of election campaigning itself, as seen in the floating and junking of candidates, the party-switching of politicians, and the unravelling of coalitions, all developments noted by informed observers of the presidential elections of May 2010. The issue of public opinion and whether it plays a role in Philippine elections had been of some interest to scholars already in the pre-martial law era (Meadows 1963). Surveys on presidential elections were attempted by Philippine academic researchers and print media in the 1950s and 1960s, but these were comparatively few, isolated and limited in scope. While election surveys thus date back to the 1950s in the Philippines, they remained largely confidential and unpublished (Abad and Ramirez 2008). Such surveys were conducted in some urban areas in the 1953, 1961 and 1965 presidential elections, for example, by a marketing research company called Robot Statistics, founded by an American, George Cohen, and identified as the first and, initially, the only, such outfit in business in the country. By the 1970s, marketing and opinion research was expanding in the Philippines, and a number of new such outfits backed the foundation of MORES, or the Marketing & Opinion Research Society of the Philippines in 1977. However, public opinion as political discourse in Philippine politics and society is a phenomenon that began to emerge only in the context of the deepening crisis and mounting opposition that marked the late authoritarian period. This is perhaps best illustrated with reference to the Social Weather Station (SWS), which was founded as early as August 1985 and remains among the Philippines’ foremost public opinion survey outfits to date (e.g., Abad and Ramirez 2008). Unlike marketing research business organisations, the SWS is a non-profit institute that aims to conduct social surveys and survey-based social science research with an aim to further education, awareness and analysis of social problems in the Philippines. by : Kanen Malik

the Caliberns | 1

NEWS

Duration of Adolescent Technology Use and Closeness with Parents

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s we advance further in technology, its use for everyday purposes is becoming increasingly common, especially among subsequent generations.

Technology use is increasing due to its undeniable benefits, especially of better communication. With newer methods of communication and sharing information emerging every day, come the shortcomings of a world inundated with technology. A recent article in the New York Times suggests that the infatuation with technology and cell phones in particular is taking away from face-to-face social interactions (Carr, 2010). In person communication seems to be decreasing as people are increasingly connected wherever they are through their computers and cell phones or hooked to a video game instead of engaging in conversation with the people around them.

For the purposes of this study we will categorize technology into three main categories, computers, cell phones and video games.

Computer use includes the use of the internet, all online and offline activities including social networking, doing homework and playing games. Cell phone use in addition to talking and texting includes new capabilities of cell phones such as internet related activities and also playing games. Video games refer to all kinds of gaming platforms outside of computers and cell phones, such as television based consoles and portable video game consoles. This study aims that these three categories will also encompass new forms of technology that are less easily categorized, such as “iPads” by Apple that include video games as well as most features of computers and cell phones.

Adolescents are one of the heaviest users of technology as a group (Subrahmanyam, 2008). They are invaluable consumers of new forms of communication such as instant messaging, text messaging, social networking, blogs and photo and video sharing mediums Technology and Parent-Teen Relationship 4 (Subrahmanyam, 2008). David Carr (2011) from the New York Times calls young people “digital natives” which represents how different they are from their parents and older groups of people in terms of technology use. They are born into the age of technology compared to previous generations who learnt to use it after they were older. Thus, it is also younger generations who have a harder time separating themselves from technology because they might suffer socially among peers if they are not up to date or well connected (Richards et. al., 2010).

As a result, a lot of time is spent on all these forms of technology and it is now 2 | the Caliberns

increasingly integrated into adolescents’ lives. Teenagers say that technology has become an immensely important part of everyday life.

Most say it is because it helps them keep in touch with their friends as well as their parents.

(Subrahmanyam, 2008) When looking at patterns of technology use of groups like adolescents, it is important to take into account the recentness of statistics.

Patterns of technology use are changing so frequently that research on these patterns from only a decade ago may be outdated. This is reflected by the fact that the number of internet users in North America has grown by 146.3% from 2000 to 2010 and 444.8% in the world from 2000 to 2010 (Internet World Stats, 2011).

Therefore, when it comes to research about technology it is important to take into account relevance of the research to the current time.

Also specifically within adolescents, usage patterns have changed a lot in the last few years. This is not confined to the internet or computer based technology. With respect to cell phones, about 75% of 12-17 year-olds now own cell phones as found in 2010 compared to 45% in 2004 (Lenhart, 2010). In 2008, Virgin Mobile reported that nine out of ten teenagers who own cell phones have text messaging capability and two thirds of them use text messaging every day.

Technology and Parent-Teen Relationship 5 They also reported that more than half of their customer aged 15 to 20 years send or receive at least eleven text messages per day whereas about one fifth of them text twenty-one times per day or more.(Subrahmanyam, 2008) Adolescents’ preferred mode of communication is texting and they are the heaviest users of text messaging as a group (Bilton, 2010).

Among all teens, their frequency of texting is now greater than the frequency of every other common form of interaction with their friends including in person interaction (Lenhart, 2010).

It was found in 2010 that young people under 18 send and receive more than double the amount of text messages per month than any other age group (See Figure in Appendix 1) (Bilton, 2010).

Text messaging is rampant among teenagers and also something that has been increasing quite rapidly in recent years. It was found that Verizon Wireless hosted 17.7 billion text messages from October through December 2006 which was more than double the total from the same months in 2005.

Something Old...continuation page 1 such in Philippine politics and society, it is useful to situate this development against the backdrop of more long-term social and economic changes in the country, as well as the new institutional framework for electoral politics introduced with the new Constitution of 1987. First of all, it is worth recalling that in the Philippines, as elsewhere, the structural decline of patron-client relations has been linked to demographic change. Since the late 1960s, the expansion of a segment of urban poor and, in absolute terms, a growing urban middle class has anticipated an overall decline in the “integrative capacity of political machines”

(Nowak and Snyder 1974: 1165; Scott 1972).

With urbanization, industrialization, and eco 102 Eva-Lotta E. Hedman nomic differentiation, the interpersonal linkages between ordinary Filipinos and the brokers of their votes became increasingly attenuated, enabling new forms of electoral and extraelectoral mobilisation in the tumultuous years leading up to the declaration of martial law in 1972. The resurrection of formal democratic institutions in the post-Marcos period, moreover, unfolded against the backdrop of a resumption of economic growth, with the spread and transformation of many urban and peri-urban landscapes across the Philippines, resurrecting the spectre of alternative social imaginaries and political possibilities to those associated with the politics of machinery and money (Hedman 2000; 2001). Second, shifts in the political party and voting system in the Philippines have followed changes to the electoral rules in the postMarcos period enacted since the new Philippine Constitution of 1987. The new electoral rules introduced with the resurrection of formal democratic institutions spelled the end of the two-party system and the associated zero-sum logic of Philippine elections that prevailed from Independence in 1946 to martial law in 1972, when the Liberal and Nacionalista machines alternated in power without serious challenges from third parties. As the new rules put in place since 1987 abolished the pre-martial law system of limiting party representation on boards of election inspectors and canvassers to the incumbent administration and dominant opposition parties, they eliminated the party disciplining effects upon candidates whose Liberal or Nacionalista affiliation offered much-needed influence over the ballot-counting process on election day. This adjustment in the electoral-business interests, foreign and Manila-based mining companies, and large-scale banking, f the national capital.

Municipal mayors and p help leverage business deals far from their offices in municipal halls and provincial capitols. Meanwhile, at the national level, the diversification of major conglomerates across economic sectors and their spread across the archipelago has anticipated new forms of brokerage to replace the pre-martial law pattern of more direct representation of “the Sugar Bloc” and other national economic interests. Today, the owners of the largest conglomerates in the Philippines lend support to a diverse range of corporate lawyers, veteran machine politicians, and celebrities in the – nationally elected – Senate in exchange for assistance in winning favourable treatment by regulatory and tax authorities, privileged access to state concessions and contracts, and other advantages. A similar dynamic has also been evident in the House of Representatives, with the country’s leading magnates bankrolling clusters of candidates in a given election, as well as lobbying campaigns on specific pieces of legislation during sessions of Congress. As suggested elsewhere, this pattern of brokerage indicates a shift in the relationship between the spheres of business and politics, allowing for a new cast of candidates to “take the money and run” (Sidel 1998). Overall, then, even as money and machinery have remained essential elements of election campaigning and voter mobilization, the something of the old “glue” that cemented pre-martial law politics has come unstuck. Previously effective forms of vote brokerage have become more attenuated and unreliable, with monetary inducements failing to guarantee loyalty.

Established patterns of interest representation have become more indirect, diffuse, and ad hoc. by: Elen Adamos

Creating a Culture and Conditions for Innovation and Change

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aking full advantage of technology to transform learning requires strong leadership capable of creating a shared vision of which all members of the community feel a part. Leaders who believe they can delegate the articulation of a vision for how technology can support their learning goals to a chief information officer or chief technology officer fundamentally misunderstand how technology can impact learning. Technology alone does not transform learning; rather, technology helps enable transformative learning. The vision begins with a discussion of how and why a community wants to transform learning. Once these goals are clear, technology can be used to open new

possibilities for accomplishing the vision that would otherwise be out of reach. Moving to learning enabled by technology can mean a shift in the specific skills and competencies required of leaders. Education leaders need personal experience with learning technologies, an understanding of how to deploy these resources effectively, and a community-wide vision for how technology can improve learning.1 Although leadership in technology implementation is needed across all levels of the education system, the need in PK–12 public schools is acute. The 2016 Consortium for School Networking (CoSN) Annual E-rate and Infra structure Survey found that 81percent of school systems have met the FCC’s short-term goal of 100 megabits per second of Internet bandwidth per 1,000 students. Although we still have progress to make, this is a significant improvement from 2013 when only 19 percent reached the goal.2 Recent changes to the federal E-rate program make funding available to increase connectivity to the remaining schools; however, these transitions will not happen without strong leadership at state, district, and school levels. by: Louise Sangonan

Measuring for Learning

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easuring learning is a necessary part of every teacher’s work. Teachers need to check for student understanding, and parents, students, and leaders need to know how students are doing overall in order to help them successfully prepare for college and work. In addition to supporting learning across content areas, technology-enabled assessments can help reduce the time, resources, and disruption to learning required for the administration of paper assessments.1 Assessments delivered using technology also can provide a more complete and nuanced picture of student needs, interests, and abilities than can traditional assessments, allowing educators to personalize learning.

Through embedded assessments, educators can see evidence of students’ thinking during the learning process and provide near realtime feedback through learning dashboards so they can take action in the moment.2 Families can be more informed about what and how their children learned during the school day.

In the long term, educators, schools, districts, states, and the nation can use the information to support continuous improvement and innovations in learning. Technology-enabled tools also can support teacher evaluation and coaching. These tools capture video and other evidence of qualities of teaching such as teamwork and collaboration. They provide new avenues for self-reflection, peer reflection and feedback, and supervisor evaluation. Educators and institutions should be mindful of whether they are measuring what is easy to measure

or what is most valuable to measure. Traditional assessments in schools and postsecondary institutions today rely largely on multiple-choice questions and fill-in-the-bubble answers.3 Many assessments also happen after learning has occurred with results delivered months later, usually after the course has ended. Assessments are more instructionally useful when they afford timely feedback. Continued advances in technology will expand the use of ongoing, formative, and embedded assessments that are less disruptive and more useful for improving learning. These advances also ensure that all students have the best opportunity to demonstrate their knowledge and skills on statewide assessments that increasingly focus on real-world skills and complex demonstrations of understanding. Statewide assessment—coupled with meaningful accountability—is an essential part of ensuring students have equitable access to high-quality educational experiences. At the same time, it is crucial to focus time and effort on tests worth taking—those that reflect the kind of instructional experiences students need and that provide actionable insight. And students and parents know there is mor wering an extended-response question outside of the context of students’ daily lives. All learners deserve assessments that better reflect what they know and are able to do with that knowledge. and at different times. Summative assessments measure student knowledge and skills at a specific point in time. Summative assessments often are administered in common to a group of students, whether an entire class, grade level at a school, or grade level across a district.

These assessment results can help to determine whether students are meeting standards in a given subject and to evaluate the effectiveness of an instructional curriculum or model. by: Nina Olarmino

NEWS Using Assesment Data Through Learning

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n almost all aspects of our daily lives, data help us personalize and adapt experiences to our individual needs. However, there is much work remaining to realize the full potential of using assessment data to improve learning. One recent study of teacher perceptions of the use of data revealed a range of frustrations with many current implementations. These frustrations include being overwhelmed with large amounts of data from disparate sources, incompatibility of data systems and tools that make data analysis unnecessarily time-consuming, inconsistency in the level of detail and quality of data, and delays in being able to access data in time to modify instruction.7 Education data systems do not always maximize the use of interoperability standards that would enable easy and secure sharing of information with educators, schools, districts, states, students, and their families. As a result, educators are missing out on significant opportunities to use data to improve and personalize learning. With improved educational data systems, leaders can leverage aggregate data to improve the quality and effectiveness of technology-enabled learning tools and resources. For example, it is now possible to gather data during formative and summative assessments that can be used to create personalized digital learning experiences.

In addition, teachers can use these data to inform interventions and decisions about how to engage individual students; personalize learning; and create more engaging, relevant, and accessible learning experiences for all learners.

58OFFICE OF Educational Technology Assessment data can be made available directly to students. When they have access to their data, students can play a larger role in choosing their own learning pathways.8 The data also can be made available to family members so students’ advocates can play a more active role in supporting their children’s education.

Moreover, data can be used to support teachers’ efforts—individually or in teams, departments, or schools—to improve professional practice and learning.9 For personalized learning systems to reach their full potential, data systems and learning platforms should include seamless interoperability with a focus on data security and issues related to privacy. In many cases, pre-service teaching candidates do not receive sufficient instruction on understanding and using data. At the same time, in-service teachers can benefit from ongoing professional development on the integration of technology to enhance their teaching. According to the Data Quality Campaign, as of February 2014, just 19 states included the demonstration of data literacy skills as a requirement for teacher licensure.10 Although data from technologybased assessments and data systems hold great potential, they are meaningful only when educators use them effectively. Teachers deserve ongoing support to strengthen their skills in how to use data to meet the needs of students better.

Addressing these challenges will take a threepronged approach: (1) preparing and supporting educators in realizing the full potential of using assessment data, (2) encouraging the development of data assessment tools that are more intuitive and include visualizations that clearly indicate what the data mean for instruction, and (3) ensuring the security and privacy of student data within these systems. by: Christian Benene the Caliberns | 3

NEWS The Ebb and Flow of “Public Opinion” in Three Presidential Elections

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gainst this backdrop, the three presidential elections in the period between the first and the second Aquino presidency provide instructive glimpses of both the power and the limitations of “public opinion” since the resurrection of democratic institutions in the Philippines.

In 1992, for example, the first presidential election since the fall of Marcos saw anti-graft and corruption crusader Miriam DefensorSantiago launch an electoral campaign 2 Antonio “TonyGat” Gatmaitan, cited in Chua 2004: 3.

The Politics of “Public Opinion” in the Philippines 107 characterised by unprecedented reformist zeal and appeal, directed especially at younger generations of voters who had begun to come of age in the postauthoritarian era (DefensorSantiago 1991). Having been forced to found her own electoral vehicle, the People’s Reform Party, and lacking real financial backing or an established political machine, she called on university students to campaign houseto-house in support of her presidential bid, and to serve as her vote-watchers at precinct level on election day. As her campaign picked up momentum, Defensor-Santiago eventually caught up with the incumbent administration’s anointed candidate, (Ret.) General Fidel V. Ramos, in a SWS survey conducted in April 1992. Despite all the considerable advantages and resources enjoyed by Ramos’ campaign compared to that of Defensor-Santiago, he recovered only a very slight lead in the final such pre-election poll conducted a few days prior to election day on 11 May 1992. The early random canvassing of votes per province put DefensorSantiago firmly in the lead for the first five days after the elections, and she placed first among presidential candidates in Metro Manila, and other regions with large voter populations.

Only as the votes began to trickle in from more distant regions of the archipelago, like Ramos’ vote-rich home province of Pangasinan, his vicepresidential candidate’s populous home province of Cebu, and the troubled provinces of Muslim Mindanao, where much 4 | the Caliberns

skulduggery and wholesale vote-rigging were reported, did Defensor-Santiago fall to second place behind Ramos, who claimed victory and assumed the presidency later that year.

Allegations of wholesale election fraud, and broader claims of advantages enjoyed thanks to the incumbent Aquino administration’s support, raised serious questions regarding the accuracy, integrity, and legitimacy of Ramos’ electoral victory. Indeed, DefensorSantiago launched an election protest that was eventually heard by the Supreme Court (Defensor-Santiago 1994). But with DefensorSantiago’s anti-corruption zeal viewed with some discomfort in many quarters, the continuity and conservative style represented

by Ramos, and his role as a retired military officer in defeating a series of coup attempts in the late 1980s, muted criticisms that a travesty of democracy had been allowed to unfold in the first presidential turnover since the forced ouster of Marcos in 1986. In the second postMarcos presidential elections of 1998, by contrast, the popular, pseudo-populist appeal of opposition candidate and actionmovie star Joseph “Erap” Estrada succeeded in captivating the electorate and capturing the presidency with a landslide victory in 1998. Having won election first to the vice-presidency in 1992 and then the presidency in 1998 with the largest vote margins in Philippine history, Estrada’s campaigns seemed to confirm the seamless working of public opinion polls as self 108 Eva-Lotta E. Hedman fulfilling prophecies. Millions of Filipino voters responded enthusiastically to Estrada’s avowed identification with the poor – “Erap para sa Mahirap” – and the “masses” – “Partido ng Masa” and were keen to identify themselves with a self-described “underdog” winner-in-the-making. Meanwhile, machine politicians and businessmen eager for inclusion and access in the impending Estrada administration likewise bandwagoned en masse onto the Joseph E. Estrada for President (JEEP) campaign (Hedman 2001).

Yet the same pseudo-populist appeal which had helped to elevate Estrada to the presidency

with the support of millions of ordinary Filipino voters also inspired scepticism and suspicion among the urban middle class, the Catholic Church hierarchy, and the business establishment whose interests had been serviced much more discreetly and effectively under the preceding administrations of Aquino and Ramos. As with Miriam DefensorSantiago, the short-circuiting of the established route to presidential power through direct popular appeal to voters by a “wild-card” candidate clearly carried dangers of its own, and once in office, the action-film star Estrada’s personal excesses, abuses of office, and aggressive flaunting of freedom from the established constraints of oligarchical democracy offended sensibilities and, less than two years into his presidential term, inspired journalistic exposés, urban middle-class protest campaigns, and congressional investigations and in due course impeachment proceedings. With Estrada allies obstructing confirmation of impeachment in the Senate, in early 2001, the “court of public opinion” shifted venue to the streets of the national capital, where a repeat performance of the “People Power Revolution” of 1986 eventually forced Estrada out of office, allowing his vice-president, Gloria MacapagalArroyo, to assume the presidency in his stead (Landé 2001). Subsequent protests organized by backers of the ousted president and attended by many urban poor Estrada enthusiasts were driven from the streets of Metro Manila and derided as “rent-a-crowd” mob riots. “People Power”, it seemed, was allowed to stand in not only for constitutional procedure but also for “public opinion” per se, even as surveys continued to demonstrate abiding, if diminished, popular support for Estrada across the country (Hedman 2003). Against this backdrop, the third post-Marcos presidential elections held in 2004 stand out for their confirmation of this implicit repudiation of the effective supremacy of “public opinion.” The 2004 presidential elections, after all, witnessed the seemingly inexplicable failure of Philippine cinema’s all-time great, “FPJ” (Fernando continue on page 5

The Ebb...continuation on page 4 Poe, Jr.), to translate his long-standing and nation-wide iconic star status into presidential victory, much as his long-time friend and fellow action-film hero Estrada had done in 1998. As in 1992, the presidential election was instead won by the candidate of the incumbent The Politics of “Public Opinion” in the Philippines 109 administration, in this case the seated president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who unlike her predecessors was free to extend her term for another six years thanks to her extra-electoral ascent to presidential office in 2001 (Gloria, Tabunda, and Fonbuena 2004).

As in 1992, the outcome of the presidential elections in 2004 was accompanied by allegations of wholesale electoral fraud, in this case vividly evidenced in congressional and court proceedings featuring Commission of Elections officials clearly operating in cahoots with the President. As in 1992, the losing opposition presidential candidate in 2004 filed an election protest with the Supreme Court, which eventually dismissed the case and allowed for Macapagal-Arroyo to serve out the remainder of her term (Hutchcroft 2008). by: Orlando Quinoje

The Rise of Public Opinion in Philippine Politics and Society It is in the wider context of such social, economic and institutional change that “public opinion” has gained greater circulation as political discourse and social fact in Philippine politics and society, with the popularity and poll ratings of candidates – rather than the construction and maintenance of 104 Eva-Lotta E. Hedman machines – viewed as an increasingly effective and decisive mode of voter mobilisation.

This trend is perhaps most evident in the close correspondence between pre-election surveys and the performance of presidential contenders at the polls in the 2010 elections. However, the rise of public opinion has also come to influence the process of election campaigning itself, as seen in the floating and junking of candidates, the party-switching of politicians, and the unravelling of coalitions, all developments noted by informed observers of the presidential elections of May 2010. The issue of public opinion and whether it plays a role in Philippine elections had been of some interest to scholars already in the pre-martial law era (Meadows 1963). Surveys on presidential elections were attempted by Philippine academic researchers and print media in the 1950s and 1960s, but these were comparatively few, isolated and limited in scope. While election surveys thus date back to the 1950s in the Philippines, they remained largely confidential and unpublished (Abad and Ramirez 2008). Such surveys were conducted in some urban areas in the 1953, 1961 and 1965 presidential elections, for example, by a marketing research company called Robot Statistics, founded by an American, George Cohen, and identified as the first and, initially, the only, such outfit in business in the country. By the 1970s, marketing and opinion research was expanding in the Philippines, and a number of new such outfits backed the foundation of MORES, or the Marketing & Opinion Research Society of the Philippines in 1977. However, public opinion as political discourse in Philippine politics and society is a

phenomenon that began to emerge only in the context of the deepening crisis and mounting opposition that marked the late authoritarian period. This is perhaps best illustrated with reference to the Social Weather Station (SWS), which was founded as early as August 1985 and remains among the Philippines’ foremost public opinion survey outfits to date (e.g., Abad and Ramirez 2008). Unlike marketing research business organisations, the SWS is a non-profit institute that aims to conduct social surveys and survey-based social science research with an aim to further education, awareness and analysis of social problems in the Philippines.

The SWS undertakes commissioned but not proprietary or confidential surveys, and the uses of survey data and findings cannot be permanently suppressed by research sponsors.

While it may allow for data and research findings that result from commissioned surveys on highly sensitive topics to be temporarily embargoed, for a period of up to three years, the SWS regularly reports on its data and findings to the mass media, and also issues the quarterly Social Weather Survey (Mangahas 2009). Having captured something of the zeitgeist of the late Marcos era, with its one-million signature petition drive to draft Corazon C. Aquino as the The Politics of “Public Opinion” in the Philippines 105 opposition presidential candidate in 1986, its national citizens’ campaign for free and fair elections, and its spectacular People Power finale, the Social Weather Station has continued to develop and expand its production of survey-based national statistics on public opinion in the Philippines, thus becoming a fixture in the period since the restoration of democracy.

In the first regular presidential elections to be held after martial law, for example, the SWS introduced so-called “exit polls” to the Philippines in 1992 when surveying voters upon their return home after voting, rather than outside poll centres, for ABS-CBN, the leading national television network in the country. Such exit polls have been conducted nationally since the 1995 interim elections, with an aim to announce results within 24 hours, compared to a period of up to two weeks typically required for the official tabulation of votes. With the proliferation of political contenders, parties and coalitions in the post-authoritarian period, the practice of “polling” has also gained increasing traction, as seen in the number and frequency of public opinion surveys conducted for wider dissemination by an expanding field of specialist outfits such as the SWS, the break-away Pulse Asia, and others, but also by media networks across the Philippines.1 Moreover, the commissioning of such surveys by individual candidates and their campaign managers, as well as by incumbent administrations, has also become widespread. This institutionalisation of “polling” as a familiar and widespread practice has encouraged developments in political marketing and “political branding” by candidates and their handlers, while producing bandwagoning effects among local politicians eager for affiliation with those presidential and senatorial candidates most likely to win national office (e.g., Tabunda, Fonbuena, and Rufo 2008; cf.

Pasotti 2009). Indeed, in the wider context of multiple parties and candidates for office without political platforms or programmes of any real distinction, the apparition of an opinionated public in survey after survey is worthy of note as a phenomenon in its own right. That is, aside from the specific content of any one survey, public opinion polling has emerged as an institutionalised practice in the Philippines,

NEWS

an established social fact. As already noted, the sheer increase in surveys is ample testimony to this reality (Chua 2004). Beyond the increasing number and frequency of surveys, moreover, there is mounting evidence of considerable media interest in and political controversy over the “reported findings” of surveys, focused on the facts and figures of specific polls, but also, importantly, on the very claims to profes 1 One recent observer identified the following as key among the major ‘legitimate polling firms’ in the Philippines: SWS, Pulse Asia, StatPolls, The Center, Ibon Foundation, Asia Research Organisation. Sureta 2009: 3.

106 Eva-Lotta E. Hedman sional objectivity and scientific method that lie at the heart of the production of public opinion for public consumption. As the accumulation and anticipation of surveys have achieved both momentum and continuous reproduction and circulation, the significance of public opinion as such thus extends well beyond the (instrumental) uses and abuses of surveys to encompass (structural) effects of a different order in Philippine politics and society. In terms of Philippine elections, such effects have come to shape the life-cycle of political campaigns in decisive ways. As noted above, for example, the early testing of the mood of Filipino voters by “floating” possible contenders for elected office has become a well established practice prior to the official start of an election campaign period, as seen in late 2009 with the rise of “Noynoy” Aquino in the aftermath of his mother’s funeral. As suggested by public opinion polls focused on national elections, there is a strong correlation between those who top the often crowded field of wouldbe contenders in early pre-election surveys and those who actually proceed to file for candidacy and to run for elected office in the official campaign period. The growing practice of would-be-candidates and their handlers commission election campaign, by establishing candidateey results four weeks before the elections to financial backers, for example, one veteran political analyst noted that a candidate who fares poorly in such surveys “may be deprived of funding”.2 The bandwagoning effect of polling, in other words, may set into motion the logic of a self-fulfilling prophecy, as public opinion combines with money and machinery to determine election results, but the ebb and flow of public opinion appear genuinely difficult to predict or to manage.

Against this backdrop, the three presidential elections in the period between the first and the second Aquino presidency provide instructive glimpses of both the power and the limitations of “public opinion” since the resurrection of democratic institutions in the Philippines. In 1992, for example, the first presidential election since the fall of Marcos saw anti-graft and corruption crusader Miriam Defensor-Santiago launch an electoral campaign 2 Antonio “TonyGat” Gatmaitan, cited in Chua 2004: 3.

The Politics of “Public Opinion” in the Philippines 107 characterised by unprecedented reformist zeal and appeal, directed especially at younger generations of voters who had begun to come of age in the postauthoritarian era (Defensor-Santiago 1991). Having been forced to found her own electoral vehicle, the People’s Reform Party, and lacking real financial backing or an established political machine, she called on university students to campaign house-to-house in support of her presidential bid, and to serve as her vote-watchers at precinct level on election day. by: Rolando Onamine the Caliberns | 5

FEATURE

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eing a Miss Universe winner, you can count on her to be a reliable scene-stealer.

So it’s no wondera that Pia Wurtzbach drew focus again on Saturday when she hit the Star Magic Ball 2017 hit red carpet.

The beauty queen smoldered in her off-shoulder dress featuring intricate lace designs with thigh-high slits that flirtatiously showed off one of her pins. She complimented it with a short hair cut.

Wurtzbach walked the red carpet solo, without her boyfriend, race car driver Marlon Stockinger.

However, she was quick to dismiss breakup rumors that may surface, saying that they’re still together.

“Okay naman kami,” she said, adding that she and Stockinger just prefer a more private relationship. “Hindi naman kailangan palaging may pino-post online.”

But asked if she’s ready to settle down with Stockinger, her boyfriend for just over a year, she said: “Naee-enjoy ko pa iyong career ko, iyong pagbalik ko sa Pilipinas, at iyong pagbalik ko sa ABSCBN. So ito muna iyong focus ko ngayon.”

This is the first time Wurtzbach attended the Star Magic Ball since winning the Miss Universe crown back in 2015.

The last time she attended was in 2013.

Will this mark the start of Wurtzbach’s career as a singer? Doesn’t look like it, as the beauty queen mentioned that she is doing this for a certain brand, presumably as part of another endorsement deal.

“What brand? Clue: It’s my musthave and it’s pink!” she stated.

Since winning the Philippines’ third Miss Universe crown, Wurtzbach has become one of the country’s most sought after endorsers.

She is set to star in a Metro Manila Film Festival entry with Vice Ganda and Daniel Padilla.

The adorable niece of Miss Universe 2015 Pia Wurtzbach is set to appear in an ABS-CBN show.

A behind-the-scenes video of Lara Wurtzbach-Manze’s photo shoot “for an upcoming episode on ABS-CBN” was uploaded on Instagram on Thursday.

No other details were given in the post on Lara’s Instagram page, which is managed by the child’s mother and Pia’s sister, Sarah.

Every year, designers, makeup artists, stylists, and celebrities collaborate to bring their most showstopping looks to the Star Magic Ball red carpet. This 2017 was no different, with all our favorite stars bringing their A-game on September 30.

We teamed up with Joan Teotico for NARS Cosmetics and hairstylist Aloja Carvajal to get an idea of how we can channel some of the beautiful makeup looks we saw that night.

6 | the Caliberns

FEATURE

Sue Ramirez’s smoky eyed makeup look was created by makeup artist Qua Mark Kingson, featuring soft brown tones, a bronzy glow, and a pink lip.Every year, designers, makeup artists, stylists, and celebrities collaborate to bring their most showstopping looks to the Star Magic Ball red carpet. This 2017 was no different, with all our favorite stars bringing their A-game on September 30.

We teamed up with Joan Teotico for NARS Cosmetics and hairstylist Aloja Carvajal to get an idea of how we can channel some of the beautiful makeup looks we saw that night.

First up: Pia Wurtzbach’s fierce makeup look was created by makeup artist Gery Penaso, and featured piercing eyes rimmed with black liner, bold brows, and glowing skin.

Being a Miss Universe winner, you can count on her to be a reliable scene-stealer.

So it’s no wonder that Pia Wurtzbach drew focus again on Saturday when she hit the Star Magic Ball 2017 hit red carpet.

The beauty queen smoldered in her off-shoulder dress featuring intricate lace designs with thigh-high slits that flirtatiously showed off one of her pins.

She complimented it with a short hair cut.

Wurtzbach walked the red carpet solo, without her boyfriend, race car driver Marlon Stockinger. However, she was quick to dismiss breakup rumors that may surface, saying that they’re still together.

“Okay naman kami,” she said, adding that she and Stockinger just prefer a more private relationship. “Hindi naman kailangan palaging may pino-post online.”

But asked if she’s ready to settle down with Stockinger, her boyfriend for just over a year, she said: “Naee-enjoy ko pa iyong career ko, iyong pagbalik ko sa Pilipinas, at iyong pagbalik ko sa ABSCBN. So ito muna iyong focus ko ngayon.”

This is the first time Wurtzbach attended the Star Magic Ball since winning the Miss Universe crown back in 2015.

The last time she attended was in 2013.

Will this mark the start of Wurtzbach’s career as a singer? Doesn’t look like it, as the beauty queen mentioned that she is doing this for a certain brand, presumably as part of another endorsement deal.

“What brand? Clue: It’s my musthave and it’s pink!” she stated.

Since winning the Philippines’ third Miss Universe crown, Wurtzbach has become one of the country’s most sought after endorsers.

She is set to star in a Metro Manila Film Festival entry with Vice Ganda and Daniel Padilla.

The adorable niece of Miss Universe 2015 Pia Wurtzbach is set to appear in an ABS-CBN show.

A behind-the-scenes video of Lara Wurtzbach-Manze’s photo shoot “for an upcoming episode on ABS-CBN” was uploaded on Instagram on Thursday.

No other details were given in the post on Lara’s Instagram page, which is managed

by the child’s mother and Pia’s sister, Sarah.

Every year, designers, makeup artists, stylists, and celebrities collaborate to bring their most showstopping looks to the Star Magic Ball red carpet. This 2017 was no different, with all our favorite stars bringing their A-game on September 30.

We teamed up with Joan Teotico for NARS Cosmetics and hairstylist Aloja Carvajal to get an idea of how we can channel some of the beautiful makeup looks we saw that night.

Sue Ramirez’s smoky eyed makeup look was created by makeup artist Qua Mark Kingson, featuring soft brown tones, a bronzy glow, and a pink lip.Every year, designers, makeup artists, stylists, and celebrities collaborate to bring their most showstopping looks to the Star Magic Ball red carpet. This 2017 was no different, with all our favorite stars bringing their A-game on September 30.

We teamed up with Joan Teotico for NARS Cosmetics and hairstylist Aloja Carvajal to get an idea of how we can channel some of the beautiful makeup looks we saw that night.

First up: Pia Wurtzbach’s fierce makeup look was created by makeup artist Gery Penaso, and featured piercing eyes rimmed with black liner, bold brows, and glowing skin.

Being a Miss Universe winner, you can count on her to be a reliable scene-stealer.

So it’s no wonder that Pia Wurtzbach drew focus again on Saturday when she hit the Star Magic Ball 2017 hit red carpet.

The beauty queen smoldered in her off-shoulder dress featuring intricate lace designs with thigh-high slits that flirtatiously showed off one of her pins.

She complimented it with a short hair cut.

Wurtzbach walked the red carpet solo, without her boyfriend, race car driver Marlon Stockinger. However, she was quick to dismiss breakup rumors that may surface, saying that they’re still together.

“Okay naman kami,” she said, adding that she and Stockinger just prefer a more private relationship. “Hindi naman kailangan palaging may pino-post online.”

But asked if she’s ready to settle down with Stockinger, her boyfriend for just over a year, she said: “Naee-enjoy ko pa iyong career ko, iyong pagbalik ko sa Pilipinas, at iyong pagbalik ko sa ABSCBN. So ito muna iyong focus ko ngayon.”

This is the first time Wurtzbach attended the Star Magic Ball since winning the Miss Universe crown back in 2015.

The last time she attended was in 2013.

Will this mark the start of Wurtzbach’s career as a singer? Doesn’t look like it, as the beauty queen mentioned that she is doing this for a certain brand, presumably as part of another endorsement deal.

“What brand? Clue: It’s my musthave and it’s pink!” she stated.

Since winning the Philippines’ third Miss Universe crown, Wurtzbach has become one of the country’s

most sought after endorsers.

She is set to star in a Metro Manila Film Festival entry with Vice Ganda and Daniel Padilla.

The adorable niece of Miss Universe 2015 Pia Wurtzbach is set to appear in an ABS-CBN show.

A behind-the-scenes video of Lara Wurtzbach-Manze’s photo shoot “for an upcoming episode on ABS-CBN” was uploaded on Instagram on Thursday.

No other details were given in the post on Lara’s Instagram page, which is managed by the child’s mother and Pia’s sister, Sarah.

Every year, designers, makeup artists, stylists, and celebrities collaborate to bring their most showstopping looks to the Star Magic Ball red carpet. This 2017 was no different, with all our favorite stars bringing their A-game on September 30.

We teamed up with Joan Teotico for NARS Cosmetics and hairstylist Aloja Carvajal to get an idea of how we can channel some of the beautiful makeup looks we saw that night.

Sue Ramirez’s smoky eyed makeup look was created by makeup artist Qua Mark Kingson, featuring soft brown tones, a bronzy glow, and a pink lip.Every year, designers, makeup artists, stylists, and celebrities collaborate to bring their most showstopping looks to the Star Magic Ball red carpet. This 2017 was no different, with all our favorite stars bringing their A-game on September 30.

We teamed up with Joan Teotico for NARS Cosmetics and hairstylist Aloja Carvajal to get an idea of how we can channel some of the beautiful makeup looks we saw that night.

First up: Pia Wurtzbach’s fierce makeup look was created by makeup artist Gery Penaso, and featured piercing eyes rimmed with black liner, bold brows, and glowing skin. tylists, and celebrities collaborate to bring their most showstopping looks to the Star Magic Ball red carpet. This 2017 was no different, with all our favorite stars bringing their A-game on September 30.

We teamed up with Joan Teotico for NARS Cosmetics and hairstylist Aloja Carvajal to get an idea of how we can channel some of the beautiful makeup looks we saw that night.

Sue Ramirez’s smoky eyed makeup look was created by makeup artist Qua Mark Kingson, featuring soft brown tones, a bronzy glow, and a pink lip.Every year, designers, makeup artists, stylists, and celebrities collaborate to bring their most showstopping looks to the Star Magic Ball red carpet. This 2017 was no different, with all our favorite stars bringing their A-game on September 30.

We teamed up with Joan Teotico for NARS Cosmetics and hairstylist Aloja Carvajal to get an idea of how we can channel some of the beautiful makeup looks we saw that night.

First up: Pia Wurtzbach’s fierce makeup look was created by makeup artist Gery Penaso, and featured piercing eyes rimmed with black liner, bold brows, and glowing skin. by: Rappler the Caliberns | 7

FEATURE

Battle for Marawi: Bitter si T

he Battle of Marawi (Filipino: Labanan sa Marawi), also known as the Marawi siege (Filipino: Pagkubkob sa Marawi) [26] and the Marawi crisis (Filipino: Krisis sa Marawi),[27] is an armed conflict in Marawi, Lanao del Sur, that started on 23 May 2017 between Philippine government security forces and affiliated militants of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), including the Maute and Abu Sayyaf Salafi jihadist groups.

According to the Philippine government, the clashes began during an offensive in Marawi to capture Isnilon Hapilon, the leader of the ISIL-affiliated Abu Sayyaf group, after receiving reports that Hapilon was in the city, possibly to meet with militants of the Maute group. A deadly firefight erupted when Hapilon’s forces opened fire on the combined Army and police teams and called for reinforcements from the Maute group, an armed group that pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, and who are believed to be responsible for the 2016 Davao City bombing, according to military spokesmen.

Maute group militants attacked Camp Ranao and occupied several buildings in the city, including Marawi City Hall, Mindanao State University, a hospital and the city jail.They also occupied the main street and set fire to Saint Mary’s Cathedral, Ninoy Aquino School and Dansalan College, run by the United Church of Christ in the Philippines (UCCP). The militants also took a priest and several churchgoers hostage.

On 26 May 2017, the Armed Forces of the Philippines stated that some of the terrorists are foreigners who have been in the country for quite some time, offering support to the Maute group in Marawi. Their main objective was to raise an ISIL flag at the Lanao del Sur Provincial Capitol and declare a wilayat or provincial ISIL territory in Lanao del Sur.

On 17 October 2017, the day after the deaths of militant leaders Omar Maute and Isnilon Hapilon, President Duterte declared Marawi was liberated. However,

8 | the Caliberns

Brigadier-General Restituto Padilla, an army spokesman, stated that some fighters remained and operations will continue till their elimination. The Maute group has established a stronghold in Lanao del Sur since February 2016 and was blamed for the 2016 Davao City bombing and two attacks in Butig, Lanao del Sur, a town located south of Marawi, in 2016.

Since the militant group’s founding in 2013, the Philippine government has downplayed the threat of ISIS in the Philippines. Following the February 2016 Butig clash with the Maute group, then-President Benigno Aquino III discounted the possibility of the Islamic State’s presence in the country. He said that those behind the attack were just mercenaries wanting to be recognized by the Middle East-based terror group.

The Abu Sayyaf group, blamed for deadly bombings and kidnappings in the past, had also reportedly pledged allegiance to the Islamic State movement since 2014.

One of its leaders, Isnilon Hapilon, is listed as among the world’s most wanted terrorists by the US State Department with a reward of up to US$5 million for his capture. Following the abduction and subsequent beheading of Canadian businessman John Ridsdel in April 2016, Aquino disclosed that he had received death threats from the jihadist group, and that the Abu Sayyaf also plotted to kidnap his sister Kris and Manny Pacquiao. Aquino also identified Hapilon to be behind attempts to convert and recruit inmates at the New Bilibid Prison to their cause and embark on a bombing campaign in Metro Manila which he said was “part of their effort to gain favor with ISIS.”

In November 2016, President Rodrigo Duterte confirmed the Maute’s links with the Islamic State group although the Philippine military maintained that ISIL h a s not established links in the

Philippines. Amidst fierce fighting in Butig on 30 November 2016, Duterte, in a command briefing in Lanao del Sur, left a warning to the Maute group: “Ayaw ko makipag-away sa inyo.

Ayaw ko makipag-patayan, (I do not want to fight you. I don’t want to engage in killing each other) but please, do not force my hand. I cannot be forever traveling here every month para lang makipag-usap (just to talk), at pagtalikod ko patayan nanaman (and when I turn around, there’s killing again). I do not want to mention anything, but please do not force my hand into it.”

On 2 December 2016, as the military regained control of Butig, the retreating Maute fighters reportedly left a note threatening to behead Duterte and the military. On 12 December 2016, in a speech before the Wallace Business Forum Dinner, Duterte dared the Maute group to attack Marawi, stating: “Because they (the Maute group) threatened to go down from the mountains to burn down Marawi? Go ahead, be my guest. We will wait for you there. Walang problema (No problem).”

From April to May 2017, Abu Sayyaf fought in clashes with Philippine security forces in Bohol which resulted in the deaths of at least four government agents.

Prelude to the battle The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) stated that the fighting in Marawi was due to a raid conducted by the military in coordination with the Philippine National Police, contrary to earlier reports that the clash was initiated by the militant groups.

Rolando Bautista, commanding general of the Philippine Army 1st Infantry Division, stated that they had received reports of impending activity two or three weeks ahead of time. As the combined military and local police team conducted zoning in Marawi t o

FEATURE

iege that left a city in ruins validate the information that suspicious personalities including Omar and Abdullah Maute were consolidating in the area, their team spotted instead Isnilon Hapilon.

According to the Philippine military, Hapilon had been appointed as emir of the IS forces in the Philippines and was consolidating his group with the Maute and other terrorist groups. After residents of Marawi reported the presence of an armed group within their locale and after the AFP verified the information, the military launched a “surgical operation” to capture Hapilon. At a press briefing in Davao City, AFP Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Restituto Padilla stated that some of the terrorists are foreigners who have been in the country for quite some time, offering support to the Maute group in Marawi. He noted that of the twelve killed in a recent action, six were from out of the country.

Amid continuing operations against the terror groups, several houses, including the residence of Lanao del Sur Representative Jun Papandayan, were seen burning as residents also reported seeing civilians killed after the military dropped bombs on Maute positions. Sources said the houses were targeted because of the presence of Maute snipers.

According to AFP Western Mindanao Command chief Lt. Gen. Carlito Galvez Jr., dwellings in the area were intentionally set on fire so as to keep them from being used as cover by the Maute. Limited air strikes were also used on Maute sniper positions. Galvez stated that no civilians were reported killed in the air strikes, and it was his hope they could keep military casualties low as well.

As of 26 May 2017, the priest Fr. Chito Suganob and his companions who were taken hostage by the Maute group on Day 1 of the clashes, were still being held by the group according to Marawi bishop Edwin de la Peña.

The regional military spokesman JoAr Herrera reported 19

civilians, some of whom were women and children, had been killed in Marawi by 27 May. Eight civilians had been found dead on the side of the road on the outskirts of Marawi on the previous Sunday (22 May). The victims were later identified as local carpenters who were part of an evacuation convoy; the militants stopped the convoy and then massacred those who could not recite verses from the Quran. A signed note was found attached to one of them, the author indicating that the victims had “betrayed their faith”. Authorities said that 2,000 civilians were trapped in militant-controlled areas.

Reports came in that 28 Malaysians had joined the Maute group. Citing intelligence sources in Manila, a Malaysian newspaper reported that the Malaysians arrived early last week supposedly for a religious event and may have also taken up arms, a conclusion they arrived at after 2 Malaysians were killed in firefights. The ongoing clash also raised concerns in Jakarta that extremist groups in Indonesia could be drawn to join the fight in Marawi as well.

Malacañang Palace Communications Secretary Martin Andanar appealed for foreign support in fighting the extremist groups in southern Philippines. In an interview with China Central Television, Andanar said “We need support, be that economic support, ideological support to fight the ISIS. Now, it is an international issue. We are doing our best to contain the ISIS and to stop it f r o m spre ading in the c o u n t r y.”

The death toll in Marawi h a s reached 100, the Philippine militar y

confirmed Monday, including 19 civilians and 61 militants. The military has also retaken most of Marawi previously occupied by the extremist groups. Presidential Spokesperson Ernesto Abella said Monday that only small areas in the city remained under militants’ control.

[81] Also on Monday, the Philippine military reported that the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters from neighboring Maguindanao have joined the Maute and Abu Sayyaf groups in Marawi and that the Abu Sayyaf leader Isnilon Hapilon remained holed up in the city.[82] Amid continuing air strikes and as the militants fought government forces on 29 May, fourteen hostages managed to escape their Maute captors. The men said they were part of a group of 20 who had been taken captive on 27 May while evacuating the city. Their captors forced them to film a video appeal to Duterte to accede to the militants’ demands or the hostages would be killed. One of the hostages was indeed beheaded, they reported, and one drowned during the escape.[83] A spokesman for Nur Misuari said Misuari ordered the Moro National Liberation Front to fight any Maute in Lanao del Sur.[84] Misuari offered a unit of 500 to 700 MNLF fighters to help fight the extremists.[84] Luis Jalandoni of the National Democratic Front stated his group was willing to help as well.[84] The Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the government decided to implement a “peace corridor” in Lanao del Sur as part of an effort to hasten humanitarian operations for displaced Marawi residents. The corridor spans from Marawi proper down to the Malabang town.[85]

the Caliberns | 9

OPINION

O

n May 28, 1988, Lisa Carl went to her local movie theater, something millions of Americans can do with ease and comfort. Yet when Lisa tried to go into the theater, the manager refused her ticket, denying her entry because Lisa had cerebral palsy and used a wheelchair. When an advocate called the theater owner about the incident, the manager coldly stated, “I don’t want her in here, and I don’t have to let her in.”

Lisa later testified before Congress, “I was not crying on the outside, but I was crying on the inside. I just wanted to watch the movie like everyone else.” While the cruelty is heartbreaking, the true outrage was that in 1988, the law actually sided with the theater owner, who was free to legally discriminate against Lisa and deny her access to a public theater because she was born with a disability.

Fortunately, millions of Americans with disabilities and their families refused to accept this discrimination. They shared their stories and pushed and prodded a bipartisan coalition of legislators to end decades of legally sanctioned discrimination through passage of the landmark

Congress is on the offensive against Americans with disabilities Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990.

At the signing ceremony, President George H.W. Bush noted that before the ADA, “tragically, for too many Americans, the blessings of liberty have been limited or even denied. The Civil Rights Act of ’64 took a bold step towards righting that wrong. But the stark fact remained that people with disabilities were still victims of segregation and discrimination, and this was intolerable.” Bush declared, “Let the shameful wall of exclusion finally come tumbling down.”

Decades later, the forces of discrimination are working hard to rebuild that wall. Led by the hospitality and retail industries, special interests want to shift the burden of ADA compliance away from business owners and onto individuals with disabilities. They’re backing a bill that has already passed the House Judiciary Committee, the so-called ADA Education and Reform Act, which would reward businesses that fail to comply with the law. The bill would allow businesses to wait until they are notified of their failure to meet legal obligations before they even have to start removing barriers that prevent Americans with disabilities from leading independent lives.

This offensive legislation would segregate the disability community, making it the only protected class under civil rights law that must rely on “education” — rather than strong enforcement — to guarantee access to public spaces. As the Consortium for Citizens with Disabilities Rights Task Force and other civil rights organizations wrote in opposing this bill, “We know of no other law that outlaws discrimination but permits entities to discriminate with impunity until victims experience that discrimination and educate the entities perpetrating it about their obligations not to discriminate.”

For decades, from enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 through passage of

the ADA, Congress has worked to enshrine the principle in law that no American should be denied access to a public space because of who they are, be it their race, nationality, religion, gender or disability. The ADA Education and Reform Act betrays this bipartisan legacy.

Businesses have had 27 years to comply with the ADA public-access protections. Yet rather than investing time and energy to achieve this goal, they are waging a propaganda campaign to convince Congress that their own lack of accessibility isn’t the problem — so-called drive-by lawsuits are. Notably, supporters of the ADA Education and Reform Act often do not dispute that they are violating the law. Rather, they simply resent being sued for what they believe are “minor” ADA infractions.

Ever since I lost my legs when an RPG tore through the cockpit of the Black Hawk helicopter I was flying over Iraq, getting around has been difficult. I can’t always enter restaurants or other public spaces. I have to spend a lot of time planning how to get from one place to the next.

An incline that is a few degrees too steep or an entrance that is a few inches off the ground can determine whether I am able to access an area without assistance. Being unable to independently enter a movie theater, store, hotel or restaurant is not only humiliating, it limits the freedom to pursue certain jobs, to access necessary services and to enjoy basic conveniences that most Americans don’t think twice about.

I understand that not everyone thinks about these things because, for most of my adult life, I didn’t either. But the truth is that everyone, whether they realize it or not, is just one bad day away from needing accessible options to help them get around their community.

By Tammy Duckworth

The old obit man looks around

W

hen I was 20, I dropped out of college and got a job with a morning newspaper whose city editor, Mr. Walt Streightiff, put me to work writing obituaries of ordinary men and women whose deaths were not considered newsworthy. Other reporters handled crime, natural disasters, City Hall, sports, fatal accidents, high finance, visiting celebrities and what was called “human interest,” meaning heartwarming stories, usually involving children. I was in charge of ordinary cold death.

Mr. Streightiff liked his obituaries straight — basic facts, plus the deceased’s education, professional achievements, church and club memberships, survivors and funeral arrangements. I liked to add interesting detail — the man who, until he was 70, swam across White Bear Lake every summer, the woman whose potato salad was envied by others, the woman who could look at a sentence and speak it backward quickly and perfectly, the man with the enormous model-train layout filling

10 | the Caliberns

his basement. Some of these Mr. Streightiff sniffed at but tolerated, others he crossed out.

That was 55 years ago and he was in his 50s and a chain smoker, so I suppose he is gone now. If I were writing his obit, I’d mention his short bristly hair, his starched white shirt and suspenders, his high-top leather shoes and armbands, and his commanding presence at the end of the horseshoe city desk, the way he barked out your last name, how he picked up a phone and said “YEAH?” into it. His breed is gone now, along with the cigarette smoke and the clatter of typewriters. And now I’m 75 and the people in the obits are pals of mine.

There were three of them in October, Bruce and Russ and Margaret, and the month is only half over.

Bruce was an organic farmer for 40 years, raising farm-to-table produce. His land had been in the family for more than a century and he made it as productive as it could be, taking on dozens of young interns who wanted to learn the ropes and find out if they had a vocation, too. He kept bees, and whenever he visited me, he brought a quart jar of honey. The farm was his life. We shared an ancestor, Elder John Crandall of the Rhode Island colony who came over from England in 1637 or so and who was arrested for preaching religious freedom among the Puritans. I am a Puritan myself and Bruce tolerated me pretty well.

Russ was an architect who took up the truck-driving life, played in a blues band, found romance, watched over his kids and cheered them on, and admired well-made things: motorcycles, guitars, old houses, barns, a song, a well-told tale. He once built a long twisting snow slide on

a hillside with banked curves that he designed for maximum thrills. He made a habit of telling you a joke every time he met you. “Ole and Lena” jokes, light-bulb jokes, whatever. A man walks into the bar with a handful of fresh dog manure and says to the bartender, “Look what I almost stepped in.” A meaningful joke. His specialty.

Margaret was a college classmate who sat ahead of me in Miss Youngblood’s Shakespeare class. I once recited to her “Let me not to the marriage of true minds admit impediments” and meant it, but we stayed friends. She became a psychiatrist and psychoanalyst while raising three kids, and practiced for 30 years or so. I accused her of being a hired friend to people of privilege, a joke, and she laughed. I think that what her patients craved was not to be healed but to be understood and she gave them her keen attention. I miss her calm and inquisitive voice. I never heard her speak about anyone with contempt or derision. Not even Death, whom she saw coming a long way off and met with serenity.

They each had a clear vocation and made a mark and I miss them and hate to delete them from my phone. I grieve for each of them, and I also tell myself to buckle down. Pay attention.

Do your job. Don’t kill time. Cherish your elders as they pass. My cousin Olive Darby died recently at 104, clear of mind, a steady star shining through the branches of the family tree. I’m sorry I didn’t go visit her, the last living person to have known my grandfather James, but there’s no time for regret now.

November is coming, 2018 approaches. Onward.

By: Garrison Keillor

OPINION

Here’s who should run the Fed next

“H

ow many central bankers does it take to screw in a light bulb?” went a joke of the late 1990s. “One,” the answer went: “Greenspan holds the bulb and the world revolves around him.” It was the pre-populist era, when experts and technocrats were celebrated, and Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman, was the ultimate empowered guru.

By quiet force of intellect, Greenspan seemed to control financial markets and the world economy. Bill Clinton used to joke that the Federal Reserve chairman was more powerful than the president himself.

Today, as President Trump ponders his choice for the next Fed chairman, central banks have lost their superhero aura. For one thing, the Trump team can’t be bothered to fill some of the top Fed positions: Three of seven seats on the Fed’s board of governors stand vacant. But the more serious problem is that central bankers are experiencing a crisis of intellectual confidence unlike any since the double-digit inflation of the 1970s. Even a year or two ago, they thought they understood their mission. Now they are not sure.

The crisis begins with the strange behavior of inflation, which has languished below the Fed’s 2 percent target almost continuously for nine years. After the 2008 mortgage bust, this “lowflation” was unsurprising: Unemployment hit 10 percent, so employers could hire

all the workers they wanted without raising wages.

Today, unemployment stands at 4.2 percent, the lowest since 2000. Perplexingly, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation remains at a rock bottom 1.4 percent.

Why is this a problem? Since the mid 1990s, the Fed has believed that, if it targeted inflation, most other things in the economy would take care of themselves.

Steady inflation of 2 percent meant that employment and the use of productive capacity more generally were at sustainable levels: neither unnecessarily low, which would imply painful joblessness, nor awkwardly high, which would cause bottlenecks.

Today’s puzzling price stability undermines the faith that inflation is a reliable proxy for wider economic stability. According to the inflation-targeting doctrine, low inflation should signal underutilized industrial capacity and high unemployment — but right now, it does not. In a speech last month, Janet Yellen, whose term as Fed chair expires in early February, held out the hope that this was a temporary aberration. But she also confessed that she and her colleagues might have misunderstood “the fundamental forces driving inflation.” We could be approaching a 1982-style watershed — the moment when the Fed admitted that another over-simple target, the money supply, was not an adequate proxy for stability writ large.

If inflation pressures have mysteriously abated, can’t the Fed just celebrate by keeping interest rates low and enjoying the consequent growth? Some commentators make precisely this argument, but even Ben Bernanke, former Fed chairman and leading proponent of inflation targeting, has begun to express doubts about this doctrine, as my colleague Robert J. Samuelson has noted.

Increasingly, the majority view (including Yellen’s) is that sticking with rock-bottom rates in the face of decent growth and full employment may be asking for trouble.

What sort of trouble? The central bankers dance around this question, but the most obvious risk is that excessively low interest rates will inflate a financial bubble. In her speech, Yellen allowed that low borrowing costs could lead — guess what! — to

excess Wall Street borrowing, though on Sunday she declared that financial stability risks remained “moderate.” The view of sober investors is closer to Yellen’s first one. Last week Frank Brosens, the head of Taconic Capital, a hedge fund, enumerated the ways in which years of low interest rates have bred market complacency, setting the system up for a potential fall.

How does this central-bank uncertainty relate to the choice of Fed chairman? The White House should want someone who is open to the view that inflationtargeting has reached the end of its usefulness, and who accepts that the largest threat to stable growth and employment comes from the risk of a financial bust. In raising interest rates despite below-target inflation, Yellen has shown at least a tentative openness to rethinking a tired doctrine. Even though I have argued that she ought to be raising rates less predictably, since uncertainty is a healthy antidote to Wall Street complacency, reappointing her to a second term would be the prudent choice.

If the administration is determined to appoint somebody different, who then? The candidate who stands out is Kevin Warsh, a former Wall Streeter, Fed governor and long-time skeptic of Fed actions that threaten to dull markets’ sense of risk. Warsh has been faulted for his skepticism of the Fed’s quantitative easing and his mistimed concerns about inflation; as the transcript of Fed deliberations in November 2010 shows, these criticisms are right. But that same transcript also contains statements that needed to be stated. “Finance, money and credit curiously are at the fringe of the Fed’s dominant models and deliberations,” Warsh said.

“That must change, because booms and busts take the central bank farthest afield from its objectives.”

At a time when the Fed needs to shift from inflation targeting to a greater cognizance of bubbles, Warsh’s feel for finance is a strength. Because his term as governor coincided with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Warsh is the candidate with the most crisis-fighting experience.

And, perhaps because he comes from Wall Street, he is the candidate most likely to battle its complacent side. by: Sebastian Mallaby

Hey, foreign leaders: Here’s what you need to know about Trump

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s President Trump prepares to head to Asia next month for his most important overseas trip yet, foreign intelligence services are undoubtedly trying to assemble personality profiles to explain this unconventional, risk-taking, domineering president to the leaders he will meet.

How will they describe Trump? Probably not with the same hyperbole we sometimes use in our daily news commentary. Foreign governments aren’t as easily shocked or offended as American journalists. They’re used to bullying autocrats.

They watch Trump’s nonstop circus act, probably with frequent dismay, but they must make policy decisions rather than value judgments.

Trump has been president for almost nine months now. If foreign analysts have been doing their reporting, they should discern some basic parameters of his presidency. They’re not Americans; they don’t have to evaluate Trump’s fitness to be president, or whether he has violated the Constitution. They must deal with the reality that he was elected, that he probably has more

than three more years left in office, and that foreign governments misread him at their peril.

What should well-informed foreign analysts say in their assessments of Trump?

Here are some notes to get them started:

Trump likes creating chaos. It’s not an accident, or a problem of poor staff work, or an itchy Twitter finger. The man likes disruption and the occasional humiliation of others. He thinks it puts adversaries off balance and opens space for negotiation. An example is a column in Sunday’s Post by Dan Balz, headlined “Trump overloads circuits in governing by disruption.” It discussed Trump’s “destructive” actions in decertifying the Iran nuclear deal and defunding Obamacare.

Not exactly a positive article, by the usual standards. But an insider says the White House loved it. That’s the image Trump wants to present. His bullying tweets are what Secretary of State Rex “Fully Intact” Tillerson called “actionforcing events” on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

Trump has high tolerance for risk, especially when operating with partners. That extends to the risk of nuclear conflict. Trump believes that, as one insider puts it, “If you want to win, you have to be prepared to lose.” Trump hears the angst about his brinkmanship, but he’s happy for the leverage it gives him. When people worry he’s too near the edge of the cliff, he thinks this is fear talking — because you never know how close you really are.

Trump has a different calculus about nuclear weapons than any recent president. He thinks that past presidents have been so scared about the danger of nuclear war that, as one insider puts it, “people play their hands into unwinnable positions.” Trump’s propensity for risk is presumably checked by three generals who advise him and who know the face

of war. But it’s Trump’s finger that’s on the button.

Trump doesn’t always go for broke. After his bankruptcies, he mostly franchised his name rather than putting his own money on the line. Golf explains Trump, too. With a difficult lie, does he try to bend the ball around a tree? Or does he play it safe and lay up? Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), a recent golf partner, tells me it depends. If Trump is playing one on one, he’s fairly careful, letting his competitors make mistakes and beat themselves. But if it’s match play, when Trump has a partner and can afford a bad shot, he goes for it. Cautionary note to China: In the North Korea crisis, Trump thinks he’s in match play.

For Trump, everything is personal. He’s a vain man who loves to be flattered. Early stroking pays dividends. His best relationships are probably with the Saudis, the Chinese and the Japanese.

All three relationships have featured personal visits, a show of rapport — and were set up early

by Jared Kushner, who is still the custodian of Trump’s personal account in foreign policy.

The China relationship is especially important for Trump. He campaigned on a tough anti-Beijing line, but he has come to see President Xi Jinping as a kindred spirit: a fellow “big guy,” a populist autocrat, a risk taker who keeps confounding his rivals.

The bottom line is that Trump hungers for success and wants the credit for it. His Asian hosts are thinking now how to deliver goodies on trade — measures that Trump can tout as reducing the trade deficit and opening market access.

As an American, I find Trump’s approach to the presidency divisive and potentially dangerous. But that’s not what foreign governments worry about. They seek to understand Trump and bend him toward their interests.

By: David Ignatius

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12 | the Caliberns