Foreign Policy: The United States and the Northern Triangle

By Roberto Antonio Wagner

Political Analyst

After some completely atypical elections in the history of the US let’s recall that their President is chosen indirectly by an electoral college and now the way for Joe Biden to become the 46th President of the US this January 20th is already clear. The question now for our countries that comprise the Northern Triangle (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) is how much will things change in terms of the relationship the US maintains with this geo-strategic region?

Two elements that depend exclusively on the US executive power are the economy and foreign policy. On the economic side, the sharp changes from the Franklin Delano Roosevelt administration (1933 – 1945) to date show how each administration implemented an economic, financial and commercial policy very different from that of its peers. On foreign policy, there is no country that has had a doctrinal tradition as rich as the United States from the Monroe Doctrine (1823) to the Bush Doctrine (2001). Taking this into account, we should have no doubt that a change, at least considerable, is coming for the region. Moreover, I say considerable, because Biden was a key piece in foreign policy during Barack Obama's presidency (2009 – 2017) and was the architect of the Plan of the Alliance for Prosperity in the North Triangle (PAPNT), launched in 2014.

The three key elements of our countries and our relationship with the US are Economy, Migration and Security, but the first thing to understand is that they are our priorities with the US in that order while they see them the other way around. As for the economy, we must be very attentive to the treatment that the US is going to give to CAFTA, which during the Obama administration focused heavily on Chapters 16 (Labor) and 17 (Environment) and not on trade issues and financial transactions. As for security, the fight against drug trafficking will keep pace with the demand for more arrests and seizures as well as fewer cases of clandestine aircraft landing in the country. On the issue of migration, the most important thing will be whether Joe Biden's government cancels the Third Safe Country

agreement signed with the Northern Triangle countries. If he does, an opportunity to improve each country's bilateral negotiations with the US opens up. But if he does not do it, then every country, especially Guatemala, will have to work harder to achieve economic, security, and migration goals with Washington.

In conclusion, the three key points to take into account in the short term are: First, that the US economy improves so that the flow of remittances keeps breaking records the way we have seen in recent months. Second, what will be the next cooperation and development plan that the US will put forward for the region, considering the failure of PAPNT, which was created precisely by Biden. Finally, and the most important, before waiting for the outcome of the first two points, Guatemala and its neighbors, as historic partners of the US, should resume a more leading role in terms of investment opportunities and alternatives to trade after the COVID-19 crisis and not just wait for the designs of the White House’s new tenant.