WINTER 2020
The Rise (and Fall) of TV Time Millennials choosing online viewing Americans Charted by Class How lowest and highest see themselves Seeing Less of the USA Air travel minimizing travel to states Who Makes Mobile Payments? POS smartphone transactions not popular with everyone The Old Are Spending More And it’s not just for health care On the Bookshelf New books and films are putting population trends into focus
GEN Z:
Listening to the Footsteps
“17 across, 12 letters:
Statistical description of human population.“ “Demographics, of course.“”
IN THIS ISSUE OF
WINTER 2019
PUBLISHER Phillip Russo
EDITORIAL STAFF
4 American Demographics is Back!
Brad Edmondson Cheryl Russell
5 The Rise (and Fall) of TV Time
Joe Azzinaro George Puro
6 Americans Charted by Class 7 Seeing Less of the USA 8 Gen Z: Listening to the Footsteps
Dane Twining Tom Prendergast
CREATIVE DIRECTOR Melissa Subatch
12 Who Makes Mobile Payments? 14 T he Old Are Spending More
American Demographics and americandemographics.com
15 This Month’s Bookshelf
Association, 630 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10017
New books and films are putting population trends into focus
are owned by the Private Label Manufacturers
and licensed for publication by Kent Media, 240 Central Park South, New York, N.Y. 10019. Periodicals postage paid at Macedonia, OH and additional mailing offices.
All rights reserved under the Library of Congress. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system, except as may be expressly permitted in writing by the copyright owners.
WINTER 2020
The Rise (and Fall) of TV Time Millennials choosing online viewing Americans Charted by Class How lowest and highest see themselves Seeing Less of the USA Air travel minimizing travel to states Who Makes Mobile Payments? POS smartphone transactions not popular with everyone The Old Are Spending More And it’s not just for health care On the Bookshelf New books and films are putting population trends into focus
GEN Z:
Listening to the Footsteps
American Demographics is Back!
elcome again to American Demographics. In this month’s issue, we turn our attention to the economy of the future and where Americans are holding their money. We also look at how the nuclear family has dropped to third as a category of American households and how the car has apparently lost a little of its luster. Our cover story is about the emergence of Gen Z, that part of the population born after the millennials. Although young in age, they already seem to have achieved a reputation for future impact on everyone’s lifestyle. Representing more than 25% of America, Gen Z is destined to be analyzed and re-analyzed over and over again. Let the evaluation begin! This month’s issue also marks a turning point for the magazine. Website designers are hard at work transitioning American Demographics from a print publication to a new digital and video format which will better capture the true transformation of our society. For more than 25 years, American Demographics has been the place to go for information about the trends impacting our lives. A staff of editors, reporters and experts pored through the dense governmental and academic publications in demographics, geology, gerontology, sociology and other fields to bring you insight into the diverse world around us. Soon, you will be able to see the trends for yourself. American Demographics is back and better than ever.
to subscribe, visit: www.americandemographics.com
4
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I WINTER 2020
By Cheryl Russell
The Rise (and Fall) of TV Time
Millennials are choosing online viewing elevision easily dominates our leisure time. Americans spend fully 60 percent of their free time on an average day watching television as a primary activity. A primary activity means more than simply having the TV turned on for company while we cleanup the kitchen or text a friend. It means Actually. Watching. Television. Of the 4.76 hours of leisure time we have each day, we spend 2.84 hours glued to the tube, according to an American Demographics analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ American Time Use Survey (ATUS). Not only does TV dominate our leisure time, but its dominance is growing. We spent more time watching television on an average day in 2018 than in any year of ATUS data collection, which began in 2003. But there are some revealing trends behind this fact. Not everyone is watching more television than ever. An entire generation, in fact, is watching less. The millennial generation and the younger Gen Xers (roughly, people aged 20 to 45) spent less time watching television in 2018 than people of the same age watched a decade or so ago in 2007. At the same time, people aged 45 or older spent more time watching television. The increased television viewing of the older age groups more than made up for the decline in viewing among those under age 45, boosting the overall average from 2.62 hours per day in 2007 to 2.84 hours per day in 2018. Television has long been more popular among older than younger adults, and the gap is growing. In 2007, people aged 65 or older spent 79 percent more time than those aged 25 to 34 watching television as a primary activity. In 2018, the older age group spent well more than twice as much time watching TV compared to the younger age group.
It makes sense that older Americans would spend more time than younger adults watching television. They have more free time, for one thing. Older people are more likely to be retired, and they are much less likely to be raising children. But there’s another factor at work that explains the decline in television viewing among millennials and Gen X: the smartphone, introduced in 2007, and increasingly drawing younger adults away from the big screen. According to a Pew Research Center survey, 48 percent of 18-to29-year-olds and 36 percent of 30-to-49-year-olds say they are online “almost constantly.” Among people aged 65 or older, only 7 percent report being online all the time. Unfortunately, the American Time Use Survey cannot capture smartphone screen time because it instead collects data on what people are doing when they use their smartphone, such as working, playing games, reading for personal interest, computer use for leisure, making doctor appointments, online banking, and of course, every now and then, actually making a phone call.
HOURS SPENT WATCHING TELEVISION AS A PRIMARY ACTIVITY, 2018 vs 2007 2018
2007
% Change
Aged 20 to 24
2.01
2.26
-11%
Aged 25 to 34
2.02
2.22
-9%
Aged 35 to 44
2.12
2.18
-3%
Aged 45 to 54
2.56
2.47
+4%
Aged 55 to 64
3.36
2.91
+15%
Aged 65-plus
4.51
3.98
+13%
Source: American Time Use Survey
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I WINTER 2020
5
Americans Charted By Class How the lowest and highest see themselves hen Americans are asked to name their economic class, they split pretty evenly between working class (45 percent) and middle class (44 percent), according to the 2018 General Social Survey. Just 8 percent see themselves in the lower class, and an even smaller 3 percent identify themselves as in the upper class. But, in fact, many more Americans are in the lower and upper classes than think they are.
HOUSEHOLD INCOME LIMITS OF EACH QUINTILE, 2018 Lowest 20%: below $25,600 Second 20%: $25,600 to $50,000 Third 20%: $50,000 to $79,542 Fourth 20%: $79,542 to $130,000 Highest 20%: $130,000 or more Source: Current Population Survey
6
The federal government does not identify Americans by social class, but it does provide the data for others to do so. Each year, the United States Census Bureau sifts through the income data collected by the Current Population Survey and produces a table distributing households into quintiles—five equally sized groups determined by household income. With 129 million households in the United States in 2018, each quintile is populated by 26 million households. The bottom 20 percent—or what could be called the lower class—had a household income below $25,600 in 2018. Nuclear families are not even the second most common household type in the U.S. today. They fell into third place in 1997 when they were surpassed by single-person households. Single-person households now account for 28 percent of total housholds—slightly less than the 29 percent of households headed by empty-nesters. Behind the growth of both empty-nest and single-person households is the aging of the population, and in particular the aging of the baby-boom generation. There’s more to come. Because of the aging of the population, the number of single-person households is growing faster than the number of empty-nesters.At the current rate of growth, we are only two years away from single-person households becoming the most common household type in the United States. That could happen in 2021.
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I WINTER 2020
There’s no denying it—a substantial 20 percent of American households are in the lowest income quintile, or lower class. Even Pew Research Center is in agreement. Pew divides households into lower, middle, and upper income tiers based not only on household income but also household size. Even the smallest households—people who live alone— must have an income greater than $25,600 to escape the lower class, says Pew. The income threshold above which Pew would consider a single-person household to be in the middle rather than the lower income tier is $26,093. What about those at the other end of the scale? The Census Bureau defines the highest income quintile as households with incomes of $130,000 or more. This may not seem like all that much money, but only 20 percent of households achieve it—the upper class. Pew agrees. According to Pew’s analysis, the upper income level ranges around that figure depending on household size—from an income of at least $78,281 to be considered upper income for a single-person household, to $110,706 for a two-person household, $135,586 for a three-person household, $156,561 for a four-person household, and $175,041 for a five-person household. Clearly, Americans are loath to identify themselves as being at either end of the income scale. Only 11 percent feel as though they are in the lower or upper class, far less than the 40 percent who actually inhabit the far ends of the income scale. What explains the difference between feelings and facts? Aspirations. Those with the lowest incomes aspire to be middle class. Consequently, many call themselves “working class” rather than lower class. Those in the upper class aspire to do even better, thus are hesitant to say they have already made it. Aspirations, rather than dollars and cents, are what define us.
Seeing Less of the USA
Air travel minimized travel to states he United States is the third largest country in the world as determined by land mass, behind only Russia and Canada. Consequently, Americans must make more of an effort than say, Germans, to visit another country. Not only does the average resident of the US have to travel longer distances to cross a border, but the greater distance increases the expense. This explains why the average American has been to only three countries while the average German has been to eight, according to a survey by Hostelworld Global Traveler. The vast land area of the United States also explains why Americans have not traveled all that much inside their own borders. The average American has visited only 12 states, according to a 2016 Livability.com survey, which asked participants how many states they had ever lived in or visited (excluding airport layovers). It’s a long way from New York to Idaho, and not many New Yorkers have bothered to make the effort to visit the Gem State. According to the survey results, Idaho is one of the least visited states.
One of the most interesting findings from Carmichael’s study is that, domestically, Americans are less well traveled than they used to be. In 1988, the average person had been to 20 states compared to the 12 reported by respondents in the 2016 survey. Some, but not all, of the decline is due to the differing methodology of the two surveys. Another reason for the decline is more air travel. In 1987, only 72 percent of the public had ever flown on an airplane and just 30 percent had flown in the past year, according to an Airlines for America survey. In 2017, those figures had climbed to 88 and 48 percent, respectively. More flying means bypassing the states between here and there. Increasingly, travelers only visit the states with must-see attractions.
The average American has been to only three countries while the average German has been to eight
Carmichael calls this a “haves” versus “have nots” trend. Some states—those with particular appeal—lure more travelers at the expense of states with less to offer. In the 1988 survey, says Carmichael, Alaska was the only state that fewer than 22 percent of Americans had lived in or visited. In the 2016 survey, fully 40 percent of states fell into this forgotten category.
Despite the massive size of the travel industry, surveys asking respondents to tally the countries or states they have visited are surprisingly rare. The 2016 survey, admittedly a bit dated, was a long overdue update of a survey taken nearly three decades ago in 1988. Matt Carmichael, former editor-in-chief of Livability. com, was in charge of the study and explains that the effort was an “update of a similar study performed in 1988 and reported in the May issue of American Demographics.” We’ve come full circle.
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I WINTER 2020
7
BY J OE AZZI N ARO
GEN Z:
Listening to the footsteps What’s that sound? The soft, shuffling noise you hear are the footsteps of the next generation of Americans. Years from becoming an army of consumers, and largely still sitting in classrooms dealing with algebra or history, they are the next great demographic bulge, bound to be as dissected as their generational predecessors, the millennials.
8
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I WINTER 2020
Millennials are old news. As they move into ripe middle age, they’ve been studied to death. There’s a new focus when it comes to age cohorts and it’s on Gen Z. Early descriptions say they are the most diverse, best-educated, most well-behaved, but most stressed generation in the country’s history. They comprise 27% of the population, more numerous than boomers or millennials. That’s a lot for marketers and demographers to chew on and, even though the leading edge is only in their mid-20s, there are already volumes of speculation on how goods and services can most effectively be sold to them. This “teenage generation” has begun to leave clues as to how they might behave when they become fullfledged consumers. Some 54% are Caucasian, 24% Hispanic, 14% African-American, 4% Asian, and 4% are multiracial or other. Referred to by some as the iGeneration, it is a digitally native group that prizes influencers, authenticity and social causes. They already influence billions in discretionary spending. Half say a socially-conscious brand influences their purchase. Gen Z has a complicated relationship with tech: Half want enhancements that make life easier, half want more time away from it; three quarters feel media can be overwhelming. “Gen Z is a particularly liberated generation,” said Carolyn DeWitt, president and executive director of Rock the Vote, a nonprofit organization dedicated to building the political power of American youth . “They reject labels and putting things in boxes and that tendency isn’t exclusive to politics. They’re rethinking and reimagining systems and institutions and terms and even ideas.”
Gen Z vs. Millennials Marketers don’t need to rewrite their millennials playbooks. But it’s time for updating: As Nielsen reports, 97% of Gen Zers have smartphones, slightly ahead of millennials at 95%. But Gen Z and millennials do not approach retail in the same way, according to an InfoScout OmniPanel study which reveals that 63% of millennials say shopping online saves them time, compared to 53% of Gen Z. Similar disparities exist in percentages who say shopping online saves them money (46% of millennials, 40% of Gen Z), it can be convenient to have orders delivered (33% of millennials, 26% of Gen Z), and they can buy hard-to-find items (28% of millennials, 24% of Gen Z). Online captures 10% of millennials’ spend, compared to 7% of Gen Z’s. Gen Z makes sophisticated choices about identity, purpose, and values. They’ve spent their lives sur-
rounded by digital content and they know how to filter anything that lacks the right tone, language, and relevancy. They navigate the digital world with ease, creating their own rules rather than looking to adults for guidance. They see through anything that’s inauthentic and believe they can change society. Gen Z can’t envision a world without the internet, smartphones, and Wi-Fi, because they never had to. They grew up with Google as a verb and YouTube as a replacement for TV. To them, the digital world has a language all its own. If a message connects with them, they follow it. But if that message loses consistency or relevance or offends, they will abandon and use their influence to get followers to do the same. They are skilled at assessing what they need as opposed to what they want, and they make purchases based on research, relying on peers and online community for guidance. Their formative years were dominated by the recession, in which their family’s net worth fell. They are willing to work and want the best education—providing it equips them with skills. They are open-minded, and value equality and inclusivity on issues of race, gender identity, and sexuality. As individuals, they want to be unique, yet they’re deeply connected to their parents, friends, and online communities, and they care about how they’re perceived. They want to stand out while still fitting in. Gen Z sets a higher bar for innovation; is more pragmatic; focuses on saving money, while millennials focus on experience; Gen Z takes authenticity to a new level; and while millennials cozy up to brands, Gen Z celebrates its independence and uses social media to find communities where they feel they belong. The best marketing approach is to tell them they can be whatever and whoever they want, not prescribe a specific image, advises Heike Young, a writer and editor for the Salesforce Blog.
“
Gen Z is a particularly liberated generation... they’re rethinking and reimagining systems and institutions and terms and even ideas.
”
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I WINTER 2020
9
Gen Z and social media
Gen Z is a big consumer of social media, but there are signs they are fashioning it to fit their own interests. Its Facebook usage fell from 71% in 2014 to 51% in 2018. The platform hasn’t lost its relevance completely, but newer social media like Instagram and Snapchat appeal more. These trends are also an indication of the generation’s preference for visual over written content: 41% say Instagram is their preferred platform. Its visual format and easy scrolling make it easy to follow brands. The site enables keeping up with influencers; getting ideas for fashion and food; and for curating their image to the world, according to The Center for Generational Kinetics. A strong social media presence is imperative for brands targeting Gen Z, as 69% will visit a store based on a retailer’s social media posts. Nearly 80% are influenced by social media to shop at a retailer they have never been to before. Fully 83% trust product information shared by other shoppers on social media more than they trust advertising, reports Media Kix, an influencer marketing agency. Gen Z is changing the social media landscape that earlier generations set in motion, says The Manifest, an online publisher of tech guides and marketing information aimed at growing businesses. It rarely frequents Facebook, Twitter, and Pinterest; and prefers YouTube, Instagram, and Snapchat. Gen Z uses niche platforms that cater to special interests. Amazon-owned Twitch provides gaming. Other platforms it likes include Tik Tok and Imgur. For communication, Gen Z prefers Snapchat, reports Adweek, while citing Reddit for news and Twitter for quick content. Podcasts are popular, as is the Instagram-like photo sharing app VSCO. Finstas, or fake Instagram accounts, deliver their opinions to a private audience.
Gen Z flexes purchase power Generation Z already influences billions in spending. While most are only beginning to make a living and have limited spending power, they exert inordinate influence on how their families spend money. Gen Z is well informed of new trends and more open to trying out new products, which has a bearing on purchase patterns of family members. IBM says over 70% of Gen Z say they influence family decisions on buying household goods, food and beverages. For Gen Z, food is king, at least in terms of dollars. Piper Jaffray says food is the biggest category of teen spending, but that could be because parents pay for clothing more than their children do. Four of five parents of Gen Zers say their kids are more involved in family purchases than they were as kids.
10
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I WINTER 2020
Previous generations of children have influence when it comes to their parents’ purchases, but according to the National Retail Federation Gen Z’s is far greater. “We’re seeing a shift in the way families shop where children are more involved with purchasing,” it said. The ability to research products online and determine availability or lowest price has given Gen Zers a bigger role in family buying, something previous generations didn’t have. They also use more of their own money to make purchases than teens did ten years ago. Gen Z influences 48% of purchases related to them and 36% of purchases for the household, said parents in the NRF study, adding that their children have sway over specific brands and retailers considered, and product features that are important to the family. More than half of parents involve their children in buying because they’re the ones using the items, because the child’s opinion matters to the parent, and to teach decision making. Four of five parents said they’re more likely to buy from a retailer that makes it easy for them to involve their children, and the same number wish retailers would make it even easier.
They prefer brick & mortar stores Gen Z shopping habits can fuel a brick-and-mortar resurgence, according to a recent survey conducted by A.T. Kearney. Some 81% of Gen Z prefers to shop in stores, and 73% like to discover new products in stores. More than half said shopping in stores allows them to disconnect from social media and the digital world. Gen Zers overwhelmingly prefer to shop in stores for mental health reasons. Eighty-one percent said they prefer to purchase in stores, and 73% said they discover new products there. Brick-and-mortar stores allow for a new type of “retail therapy,” with 58% saying browsing allows them a break from the digital world. “One of the things the survey shows us is that, despite being the first full generation of digital natives, Gen Z is looking at brick and mortar retailing as a way to disconnect from the stress of social media while at the same time getting emotionally closer to the online influencers and celebrities they follow.” Retailers should focus on customer service and shopping experiences, both in stores and online. A poor online experience has prevented 22% of Gen Z shoppers from making a purchase three to five times in the past year. In a store, that rate rises to 24%. By comparison, 15% of millennials halted an online purchase and 21% stopped an in-store purchase three to five times in the past year because of a bad experience. While Gen Z likes the speed of Amazon they still want to shop in a store because it means time spent with
friends, per eMarketer. The NRF says more than twothirds preferred buying at stores. “Given the large amount of time they spend online, it might come as a surprise that a majority shop in physical stores more often than in online ones. Limited access to credit cards may be a factor. Online shopping is slightly more prevalent in the 19-21 age group than it is in the 13-15 age group,” notes a report from IBM. “Gen Z actually prefers to shop in stores. They like to feel and see products in person to make sure they’re buying something high-quality, and they’re keen on unique experiences that happen in stores. Retailers, think about how you can attract more into your store with educational or social media-worthy experiences,” suggests Salesforce. A survey from the International Council of Shopping Centers said 76% of Gen Z believe “physical stores provide a better shopping experience.”
Make your brand “lit” “Getting a Gen Zer to be loyal to a brand is nearly impossible. Brands need to work extra hard to earn their trust. Gen Z is skeptical by its ability to verify almost anything online. They value transparency and authenticity in the brands that they buy,” says Business Insider. Only a third of Gen Z feels strong loyalty to a brand. But as they age, loyalty increases, suggesting marketers have a short time frame to build connections. The best way to capture their attention is through authentic and meaningful interactions; think about quality, not quantity; and understand how they want to interact and communicate. They don’t want to pay full price. They’re thrifty, fiscally pragmatic and value-oriented. Obsession with price makes them less loyal to brands. “There really isn’t loyalty like in the past,” according to Marcie Merriman, the executive director for growth strategy and retail innovations at Ernst & Young. “They are highly informed and want to take charge of their lives and futures.” Gen Z wants a 1:1 dialogue with advertisers. A survey conducted by the marketing consultancy Crowd DNA found 60% wished they could message more businesses. Similarly, 80% said they are open to CPG brands posting in their online communities, per Accenture.
Says branding agency CBX: “This age group is very attuned to wanting the best quality at the best price. And, historically, private label has been about value.” Eight of ten consider money the biggest stressor vs. 64% of older Americans. This is an indication of the importance price is likely to play when Gen Zers go shopping. If businesses promise high perceived value for a nominal price, they win Gen Z customers, reports the international data platform Statista. They’ve grown up with a focus on the flavor and function of food rather than the brand. This makes them more challenging for marketers to reach, according to research from NPDGroup. Gen Z expects the complete package of functionality, added nutrients, and health benefits. A recent report from Mintel found that Gen Z is more likely to be open to the latest food trend or innovative fusion creation. “These adventurous habits create opportunities across categories, presenting potential for products like tikka masala meal kits or Peking duck-flavored potato chips. While restaurants remain the most common points of discovery, their exposure to a range of food should inspire supermarket brands to offer more authentic and hybrid international flavors. Gen Z has the potential to reset expectations for health and wellness, increase the reach of international cuisine, and heighten creativity in the kitchen.”
Getting a Gen Zer to be loyal to a brand is nearly impossible
“A large percentage of Gen Z was raised to put a greater emphasis on the quality of food, whether it’s clean, fresh, or nutritionally beneficial, as well as its flavor and function,” NPD said. “Their attitudes and behaviors about foods they consume are being reflected across grocery shelves and cases.”
Some final caveats. Gen Z has an attention span of 8 seconds, vs millennials’ 12. More than half run ad-blocking software. They have a love-hate relationship with advertising, fewer than a quarter has a positive perception of online marketing. With a median age of 15, Gen Z is a growing challenge. Of course, once marketers get their arms around them, the next cohort, Gen Alpha, will arrive. Population renewal never ends.
Gen Z creates personal brands faster and more effectively than prior generations. They aren’t waiting for brands to lead on issues. They are the ones who are leading, asserts Ad Age. Gen Z wants to be part of the brand experience. If you can provide them with an authentic experience, they’ll participate. If you’re successful, Gen Z won’t just join the journey, they will bring you along on theirs, becoming brand ambassadors through their social channels, while helping you grow your brand as influencers. AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I WINTER 2020
11
Who Makes Mobile Payments POS smartphone transactions not popular with everyone riting a check. Is there anything more frustrating than standing in line at a grocery store waiting… while someone ever so slowly writes a check? Fortunately, it’s happening less often these days. Only 61 percent of Americans wrote at least one check in 2018, according to the Federal Reserve’s 2018 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice. That’s a big drop from the 87 percent who wrote at least one check nearly a decade ago in 2009. In an average month of 2018, consumers made only three payments by check. They made 25 debit card payments, 17 cash payments, and 17 credit card payments. The way people pay for things is changing.
Mobile payment adoption has not met industry projections, even as e-commerce in general has seen strong growth in recent decades
But it’s not changing as fast as the industry once thought it would, according to the Pew Charitable Trusts study, Are Americans Embracing Mobile Payments? What’s lagging? Mobile payments made with a smart phone (or smart watch) are slow to catch on. “Mobile payment adoption has not met industry projections, even as e-commerce in general has seen strong growth in recent decades,” explains Pew. While most Americans aged 18 or older (56 percent) have bought something through their smartphone in the past year, according to Pew, many fewer have used their phone to pay at point of sale or to transfer money to another person (such as through the Venmo or Zelle apps). According to the 2018 National Financial Capability Study conducted by ARC Research for the FINRA Investor Education Foundation, only 35 percent of the public have used a mobile phone to pay at point of sale and 37 percent have used a mobile phone to transfer money to another person. Of course, there are big differences by generation in the use of mobile phones to make payments. Among people aged 18 to 34, a 53 percent majority have used their smartphone (or watch) to pay at point of sale and 60 percent have used it to transfer money to another person. Among people aged 55 or older, the figures are just 17 and 15 percent, respectively.
12
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I WINTER 2020
What’s keeping more of us from adopting mobile payments? Concerns about safety, says Pew. Only 22 percent of respondents think mobile transactions are well protected from financial loss if a problem occurs. In comparison, a larger 43 percent feel that way about debit card transactions and 61 percent about credit cards. Even among Gen Xers and younger adults, 30 percent believe mobile payments carry no consumer protections. Among baby boomers and older adults, 50 percent think there is no protection. Apparently, the public does not know this basic financial fact: “Regardless of whether a card is used on its own or via a mobile payment,” explains Pew, “the financial protections from the card company remain the same. Federal rules provide similar protections regardless of payment method.”
Only 22 percent of respondents think mobile transactions are well protected from financial loss if a problem occurs
USE MOBILE PHONE TO PAY AT POINT OF SALE
Aged 18 to 34:
53%
Aged 35 to 54:
40%
Aged 55-plus:
17%
USE MOBILE PHONE TO TRANSFER MONEY TO ANOTHER PERSON
Aged 18 to 34:
60%
Aged 35 to 54:
40%
Aged 55-plus:
15%
Source: FINRA
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I WINTER 2020
13
The Old Are Spending More And it’s not just for health care
AVERAGE ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING IN 2018 Householders under age 25: $32,039 Householders aged 75-plus: $43,181 Source: BLS
AVERAGE ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING IN 2018 Householders aged 25 to 34: $56,457 Householders aged 65 to 74: $56,268 Source: BLS
14
he US population is aging. Between now and 2040, the number of Americans aged 65 or older will expand by 54 percent as the large baby boom generation fills the age group. Does this mean we’re in for slowing economic growth? After all, the old don’t spend like the young, and consumer spending accounts for 68 percent of the economy.
drinks. The oldest householders spend more than the youngest on whiskey and wine for home consumption and on wine when dining out at full-service restaurants. They spend more on lodging while on trips. They even spend more on internet service. The list also includes major appliances, women’s shoes, new cars and trucks, airline fares, cable television, and pets.
It’s true. The old don’t spend like the young. They spend more. The notion that a burgeoning population of elderly will slow the economy is a relic of the way things used to be. It’s not that way anymore. Even householders aged 75 or older spend more than young adults, according to an American Demographics’ analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Survey.
If these facts don’t convince you that the old now spend like the young, then let’s step it up a notch and compare the spending of householders aged 65 to 74 with the spending of householders aged 25 to 34—the shiny young adult market every business covets.
This is a new thing. In 2006, before the Great Recession, the oldest and youngest householders spent about the same amount—$35,000 spent by householders under age 25 and $36,000 spent by householders aged 75 or older (in 2018 dollars). But between 2006 and 2018, the average annual spending of householders aged 75 or older grew by 20 percent, after adjusting for inflation. At the same time, the spending of householders under age 25 fell 9 percent. By 2018, the oldest householders were outspending the youngest by 35 percent—$43,000 versus $32,000. Yeah, yeah, the old folks spend a lot more than the young on health care—$5,700 more in 2018. But the greater spending of the oldest householders goes far beyond health care expenses. Householders aged 75 or older spend more than householders under age 25 on a whole range of fun things like cookies, meat, milk, ice cream, bottled water, and even sports
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS I WINTER 2020
In 2018, households headed by 65-to-74-yearolds spent the same amount as those aged 25 to 34—about $56,000. This is new. In 2006, the older householders spent considerably less than those aged 25 to 34. But in the intervening years, the spending of the old surged while the spending of younger adults fell. Sure, the older householders spent $3,600 more than the younger on health care in 2018, but the younger householders devoted more to mortgage interest, day care, and other monthly bills. There’s a long list of discretionary products and services on which householders aged 65 to 74 outspend those aged 25 to 34, beginning with entertainment. The older householders spent 49 percent more than the younger ones on entertainment in 2018. They also spent more on such things as dinner at full-service restaurants, outdoor furniture, luggage, and women’s clothes. The next time you hear someone fret about the effect of the aging population on the nation’s economy, tell them not to worry. Today’s older Americans are spending like the young at heart.
of the census and its role in defining racial and ethnic categories in American history.
Counting Americans: How the US Census Classified the Nation As the United States Census gets set for its launch on January 21st, Americans can expect to see some changes to the census form they see every 10 years. One of the changes in 2020 will be the addition of a write-in section that enables the census to capture more detailed information about the origins of its citizens. The census has explained that it is addressing community concerns “including the call for more detailed, disaggregated data for our diverse American experiences as German, Mexican, Korean, Jamaican, and myriad other identities.” America’s attempt to capture its racial and ethnic origins has a storied history, one told in the book Counting Americans: How the US Census Classified the Nation. Originally published in French before the last census, the English-language version of Counting Americans finally made its way to US shores in 2017 and arrived in paperback in November 2019, just before the next census. The work is written by Paul Schor, an Associate Professor of American History at Université Paris Diderot and published by Oxford University Press. Counting Americans traces the history of census classifications, with an emphasis on how conceptions of race and ethnicity have evolved over time. The book painstakingly recounts the fascinating history
The first section of the book focuses on the period between 1790 and 1840, encompassing six censuses. The 1790 census divided the population into three main groupings—free whites (further divided by age and gender) and all other free persons; slaves (who were not further counted by age or gender) and Indians (who were not counted at all, and wouldn’t be counted in the general population until 1860 and on reservations until 1900). The next five censuses followed a similar structure of classification, though the country experienced tremendous growth in population in those years, seeing the number of states double to 26 and the number of people more than quadruple. One significant change occurred in the 1820 census, when John Quincy Adams pushed for details about the age and gender of free blacks and slaves. The 1820 census also marked the first time the word “color” was used on a census questionnaire, under the banner “free colored persons.” The 1820 and 1830 censuses contained one other noteworthy element—they asked a citizenship question, seeking to identify “foreigners not naturalized.”
The book’s second section focuses on the next two censuses—in 1850 and 1860—and not surprisingly on what data to collect about slaves. After much debate, Congress decided to assign a number to slaves rather than gather names. These censuses also introduced two categories for black respondents, whether free or slave: “black” and “mulatto,” labels that would continue to be used until 1920, though their meanings would evolve. In the 1890 census, the black population was further subcategorized into black, mulatto, quadroon and octoroon, designations defined on the census form in terms of percentage of black ancestry. The 1850 census also marked the beginning of a focus on immigration, with a question about the birthplace of free people. This was followed in the 1870 and 1880 censuses with questions about the birthplaces of parents, and in 1910, a question about the mother tongue of immigrants. By 1940, questions about place of birth and mother tongue fell out of favor and were only posed randomly to one of every 20 people. The book extends through 1940, though with an epilogue that leads to 2000, when, for the first time, one could select more than one race to describe oneself.
AMERICANDEMOGRAPHICS.COM I WINTER 2020
15
Month by Month at a Glance
AMERICAN DEMOGRAPHICS Gen Z: Listening to the Footsteps Meet the Henrys
(Winter)
(November)
Welcome to the World of Labor Shortages (February)
The Real Cost of Student Debt (October)
Who Are “The Influencers?” (March)
Let American Demographics be your umbrella against the uncertainties of tomorrow’s raindrops. Visit www.americandemographics.com and subscribe.