Economic Survey 2014-2015 by Amit Mathur

Economic Survey 2014-15 Volume I

Government of India Ministry of Finance Department of Economic Affairs Economic Division February, 2015

CONTENTS 1

1 1 3 12 15 18 19 21 25 28 32 34 37 38 41

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges Introduction Macroeconomic Review and Outlook Inflation and Money External Sector Agriculture The Growth-Fiscal Policy Challenge ‘Wiping Every Tear From Every Eye’: The JAM Number Trinity Solution Growth Private and Public Investment The Banking Challenge Manufacturing, Services and the Challenges of “Making in India” The Trade Challenge Climate Change Empowering Women: Unleashing Nari Shakti Cooperative Federalism and the Recommendations of the Fourteenth Finance Commission (FFC)

44 44 45 48 49 50

Fiscal Framework Introduction and Summary Background and History Lessons Medium-Term Strategy Short-Term Issues Conclusions

52 52 53 57 63 64 64

‘Wiping Every Tear From Every Eye’: The JAM Number Trinity Solution Introduction Subsidising Whom? The Case of Kerosene The Case of Food The Possibilities Offered by Cash Transfers The JAM Number Trinity Solution

66 66 67 68 71 73 74

The Investment Climate: Stalled Projects, Debt Overhang and The Equity Puzzle Introduction Rate of Stalling and Stock of Stalled Projects An Analysis of Stalled Projects Balance Sheet Syndrome With Indian Characteristics What is Impact of Balance Sheet Syndrome on Firm Equity? Policy Lessons

Credit, Structure and Double Financial Repression: A Diagnosis of the Banking Sector Introduction Financial Repression on the Liability Side Financial Repression on the Assets Side A Comparative Analysis of Banking and Credit Are Public Sector Banks Uniform in performance? Policy Implications

77 78 79 81 85 88

(i)

89 89 89 91 101

Putting Public Investment on Track: The Rail Route to Higher Growth Introduction Effects of Increasing Public Investment on Overall Output and Private investment The Case for Public Investment in Railways Policy Recommendations-Key Takeaways

102 102 103 105 111 114

What to Make in India? Manufacturing or Services? Introduction Desirable features of Sectors that can Serve as Engines of Structural Transformation The Manufacturing Scorecard The Service Scorecard Summary Scorecards and Conclusions

117 117 117 118 119 120 120 120 121

A National Market for Agricultural Commodities- Some Issues and Way Forward Introduction APMCs Levy Multiple Fees, of Substantial Magnitude, that are Non-transparent, and hence a Source of Political Power Essential Commodity act, 1955 vs APMC Act Model APMC Act Karnataka Model Inadequacies of Model APMC Act Alternative ways of Creating National Market for Agricultural Commodities Using Constitutional Provisions to Set up Common market

122 122 123 125 125 125 128

From Carbon Subsidy to Carbon Tax: Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Green Actions Introduction Excise Duty on Petrol and Diesel as an Implicit Carbon Tax How Does India Compare with Other Countries? CO2 Emission Reductions From Petrol and Diesel Taxes and Coal Cess Translating Coal Cess into Carbon Tax Conclusions and Key messages

129

The Fourteenth Finance Commission (FFC) - Implications for Fiscal Federalism in India? Introduction Major Recommendations of FFC Implications of FFC Recommendations for Fiscal Federalism: A way Ahead Balancing Fiscal Autonomy and Fiscal Space Caveats and Conclusion

129 129 131 134 137

(ii)

NOTES The following f igures/units are used in the Economic Survey: BCM BU MT lakh million crore

billion cubic metres billion units million tonnes 1,00,000 10 lakh 10 million

kilogram

hectare

Bbl

billion barrels per litre

billion

1,000 million/100 crore

trillion

1,000 billion/100,000 crore

Acknowledgements The Economic Survey is a result of teamwork and collaboration. I was assisted in the coordination tasks by Anandi Subramanian and N.K. Sinha. Contributors to the Survey from the Economic Division include: H.A.C Prasad, D.S. Kolamkar, Ila Patnaik, Anandi Subramanian, K.L Prasad, A.S. Sachdeva, Rajat Sachhar, Rajasree Ray, Antony Cyriac, R. Sathish, P. K. Abdul Kareem, N. K. Sinha, Priya Nair, Rajmal, J.K. Rathee, K.M. Mishra, Rangeet Ghosh, Abhishek Acharya, Kapil Patidar, Syed Zubair Husain Noqvi, Neha Yadav, Aakanksha Arora, Rabi Ranjan, Deepak Kumar Das, Vijay Kumar, M. Rahul, Rohit Lamba, Siddharth Eapen George, Sutirtha Roy, V.K. Mann, Riyaz A. Khan, Shobeendra Akkayi, Salam Shyamsunder Singh, Md. Aftab Alam, Sanjay Kumar Das, Subhash Chand, Praveen Jain, Narendra Jena, Pradyut Kumar Pyne, Jyotsna Mehta, Kanika Grover and Rajesh. The survey has greatly benefited from the comments and inputs of officials, specifically, Rajiv Mehrishi, Saurabh Chandra, Sudhir Kumar, Arbind Modi, K.P.Krishnan, UKS Chauhan and Arunish Chawla; and a number of external collaborators, including Anant Swarup, Apoorva Gupta, Bimal Jalan, Devesh Kapur, Fan Zhang, Harsha Vardhana Singh, Jean Dreze, Josh Felman, Karthik Muralidaran, Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Manish Sabharwal, Mohit Desai, Muthukumar Mani, Namita Mehrotra, Nandan Nilekani, Nick Stern, Nisha Agrawal, P.S Srinivas, Partha Mukhopadhyay, Pranjul Bhandari, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Raghuram G. Rajan, Rajiv Lall, Rakesh Mohan, Reetika Khera, Richard Bullock, Rohini Malkani, Sajjid Chinoy, Sandip Sukhtankar, Sonal Verma, T.V.Somanathan Tushar Poddar and Vijay Kelkar. Apart from the above, various ministries, departments, and organisations of the Government of India made contributions on their respective sectors. Able administrative support was given by Agam Aggarwal, Sadhna Sharma, Suresh Arora, Amit, Rajat Verma and staff members of the Economic Division. Amarnath and his team of translators carried out the Hindi translation, while Shalini Shekhar adeptly edited the document. The Government of India Press, Minto Road and Mayapuri undertook the printing of the English and Hindi versions of the survey.

Arvind Subramanian Chief Economic Adviser Ministry of Finance Government of India

(iii)

PREFACE The Economic Survey is a collective effort, of numerous contributors in government and outside, as well as analysts abroad, but above all, of the dedicated staff of the Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs. To all of them is owed gratitude and thanks for hard work done, and done well and cheerily, meeting stiff deadlines and contending with the vicissitudes of rules and personalities. All Economic Surveys bear the imprint of the incumbent Chief Economic Adviser. And so it is with this one. But the desire for change must be balanced by the imperative of maintaining continuity, in order to be respectful of, and gain from, traditions that have survived the tests of time, whim, fashion, and politics. Inspired by the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, this Survey departs structurally from its predecessors and presents its output in two volumes. Volume 1 discusses the outlook and prospects as well as a number of analytical chapters addressing topical policy concerns. Volume 2 describes recent developments in all the major sectors of the economy and contains all the statistical tables and data. In a sense, Volume 1 is forward-looking but gaining from the perspective provided by the recent past which is the subject of Volume 2. In deciding the content of Volume 1 of the Survey, one challenge was to reconcile the vaguer claims of posterity and the clearer demands of the pressing present. Another related challenge was the hardy perennial: depth or breadth? John Maynard Keynes famously said that it is necessary to distinguish the important from the urgent. At this juncture, with a new government in power and about to present its first full budget, and given the constraints of time and resources, this Survey has taken Keynes’ advice to heart. The Survey favours the present, erring on the side of being expansive in scope even if the consequence has been to privilege cursory examination over in-depth analysis. The broad themes of the Survey are “creating opportunity and reducing vulnerability.” Growth is the prerequisite for achieving many economic and indeed other objectives. Maximizing the benefits of growth will, of course, require complementary public actions, but without growth, possibilities across the income spectrum shrink. Increasingly, the debate on reducing poverty and vulnerability more generally is less about “whether” and more about “how best” direct government support can complement broader economic growth. Growth versus distribution is, as it always should have been, a false choice. Volume one begins with a chapter on the macroeconomic outlook and prospects for the Indian economy which sets the context for brief discussions of the policy issues focused on “creating opportunity and reducing vulnerability.” These issues are then elaborated in the following nine chapters. Growth requires macroeconomic and hence fiscal stability (Chapter 2). A re-visiting of the fiscal framework is also necessary because this is the first full budget of the government and because of the reported recommendations of the Fourteenth Finance Commission that could decisively shape center-state fiscal relations. This is followed by a chapter on “wiping every tear from every eye” where the focus is on how support is best provided and the role that technology can play in this regard. The following chapters cover the state of stalled projects and their implications for private and public investment going forward (Chapter 4); a brief diagnosis of the banking system and its implications for reforming it (Chapter 5); and the role of railways in driving future Indian growth (Chapter 6). There is a more academic discussion that speaks to the Make in India initiative, shedding light on the debate between manufacturing and services and suggesting alternative ways of thinking about transformational sectors (Chapter 7). Completing the discussion of sectors is a chapter on creating a single market in agriculture from what are in effect thousands of markets (Chapter 8). Climate change is increasingly central to economic development and creates challenges. These are discussed in Chapter 9. Chapter 10 deals with what is a dramatic re-shaping of Centre-State fiscal relations. It provides a preliminary analysis of the implications of the recommendations of the Fourteenth Finance Commission. For the attention deficit-challenged, the outlook could be the port of only call, while others may find the detailed chapters of additional interest. Within Volume 1, there is some repetition, although that is inherent to having to cater to multiple audiences. The Survey places a premium on new ideas or new perspectives both of an academic and policy nature. The limitations of time and resources mean that new ideas may not pass the most rigorous standards of the academy. But the approach is to find new data or present old data in a new form, to make connections, and to draw insights wherever possible, all with the aim of shedding light on policy. The aim is to provoke and stimulate debate and discussion, thereby enriching the process of policy-making, and hopefully, improving its outcome. The survey also aims to be readable, rising to the challenge of making dry economics as accessible as an op-ed (or perhaps a blog) without fully sacrificing the rigor of a more serious tome. The discipline may be dismal but, dear reader, it should not be dreary. Arvind Subramanian Chief Economic Adviser Ministry of Finance, GOI (iv)

ABBREVIATIONS \GDP GST CPI GTR RBI CSO MOSPI MGNREGA FRBM CST JAM ASER LPG BPL A AT APL PDS DBT MSP NSSO IFSC UNDP UNIDO WDI GGDC APMC VAT FDI MoP&NG GHG GIZ PMGSY NTKM PKM RIRI BRIC CPI (IW) MMDR LB EC ASI IMF US EIA

Gross Domestic Product Goods & Services Tax Consumer Price Index Gross Tax Revenue Reserve Bank Of India Central Statistics Office Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act Fiscal Responsibility & Budget Management Act Central Sales Tax Jan Dhan Yojana - Aadhar - Mobile Annual Survey of Education Report Liquified Petroleum Gas Below Poverty Line Antodaya Anna Yojana Above Poverty Line Public Distribution System Direct Benefit Transfer Minimum Support Price National Sample Survey Office Indian Financial System Code United Nations Development Program United Nations Industrial Development Organisation World Development Indicator Groningen Growth and Development Centre Agricultural Produce Market Committee Value Added Tax Foreign Direct Investment Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas Green House Gas German Agency for International Cooperation Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana Net Tonnes Per Kilometre Passenger Kilometre Rational Investor Rating Index Brazil Russia India China Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) Mines & Minerals (Development and Regulation) Labour Bureau Economic Census Annual Survey of Industries International Monetary Fund US Energy Information Administration

OPEC TOT WPI CMIE ICR PPP NDA SLR PSL ROA SARFESI SMEs SEZ CVD SAD ICAR WTO FTA TPP TTIP RCEP ASEAN UNFCCC IPCC HDI GII NFHS ELA VECM VAR PPP DFC CAPEX BSE EBIT NHAI UMPP LPVR ISB ANBC NPA CRAR PSB

(v)

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Terms of Trade Wholesale Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy Interest-Coverage Ratio Public Private Partnership National Democratic Alliance Statutory Liquidity Ratio Prioroty Sector Lending Return on Assets The Securetization and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and the Enforcement of Security Interest Small & Medium Enterprises Special Economic Zone Countervailing Duties Special Additional Duties Indian Council of Agricultural Research World Trade Organization Free Trade Agreement Trans-Pacific Partnership Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Association of South-East Asian Nations United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change Human Development Index Gender Inequality Index National Family Health Survey Expected Levels of Achievement Vector Error Correction Model Vector Auto-Regression Purchasing Power Parity Dedicated Freight Corridor Capital Expenditure Bombay Stock Exchange Earnings before Interest & Tax National Highway Authority of India Ultra Mega Power Projects Least Present Value of Revenue Indian School of Business Adjusted Net Bank Credit Non-Performing Asset Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets Ratio Public Sector Banks

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges 1.1 INTRODUCTION A political mandate for reform and a benign external environment have created a historic moment of opportunity to propel India onto a double-digit growth trajectory. Decisive shifts in policies controlled by the Centre combined with a persistent, encompassing, and creative incrementalism in other areas could cumulate to Big Bang reforms. As the new government presents its first full-year budget, a momentous opportunity awaits. India has reached a sweet spot—rare in the history of nations—in which it could finally be launched on a double-digit medium-term growth trajectory. This trajectory would allow the country to attain the fundamental objectives of “wiping every tear from every eye” of the still poor and vulnerable, while affording the opportunities for increasingly young, middle-class, and aspirational India to realize its limitless potential. This opening has arisen because facts and fortune have aligned in India’s favour. The macro-economy has been rendered more stable, reforms have been launched, the deceleration in growth has ended and the economy appears now to be recovering, the external environment is benign, and challenges in other major economies have made India the near-cynosure of eager investors. Daunting challenges endure, which this Survey will not ignore, but the strong political mandate for economic change has imbued optimism that they can be overcome. India, in short, seems poised for propulsion.

01 CHAPTER

Any Economic Survey has to grapple with prioritization, to navigate the competing pitfalls of being indiscriminatorily inclusive and contentiously selective. Accordingly, this Survey will focus on the two broad themes—creating opportunity and reducing vulnerability—because they are the two pressing themes of the day and which between them encompass the many key policy challenges that the new government must address. The outline for this volume of the Economic Survey is as follows. A brief macroeconomic review and outlook will set the context for the broader thematic and policy discussions that follow. The importance of economic growth, both for lifting up those at the bottom of the income and wealth distribution, and providing opportunities for everyone in that distribution, cannot be overstated.1 Rapid, sustainable, and all-encompassing growth requires a strong macroeconomic foundation, key to which is fiscal discipline and a credible medium term fiscal framework. These prerequisites are discussed in Sections 1.2 and 1.6. But “wiping every tear from every eye” also requires proactive support from the government in the form of a well-functioning, well-targeted, leakage-proof safety net that will both provide (minimum income) and protect (against adverse shocks). This is also true in rural India where economic conditions for farmers and labourers are under stress. The policy issue now is no longer whether but how best to “provide and protect,” and technology-based direct benefit transfers will play an important role in this regard (discussed in Section 1.7.

Bhagwati, J. and Arvind Panagariya, “Why Growth Matters: How Economic Growth in India Reduced Poverty and the Lessons for Other Developing Countries”, 2013, A Council on Foreign Relations Book, Public Affairs Books. 1

Economic Survey 2014-15

Perspiration and inspiration, investment and efficiency, respectively, determine long-run growth. But the Indian private investment climate is clouded by the experience of the last decade. A combination of factors—weak corporate balance sheets, an impaired banking system, difficulty of exit, the deficiencies of the public private partnership (PPP) model in infrastructure—could hold back private investment going forward. Private investment must remain the main engine of long-run growth. But, in the short to medium term, as the near-intractable problems get slowly resolved, public investment, especially by the railways, will have to play a catalytic role. These issues and how the banking system can play a supportive role are the focus of discussions in sections 1.8 and 1.9.2 Manufacturing and trade have been the engines of growth in the post-war period for most economies, especially in Asia. The validity of that experience for India, which acquires salience in the context of the ‘Make in India’ initiative, is the focus of section 1.10. The following section then takes up challenges related to trade. Sections 1.12 and 1.13—on climate change and gender equality respectively— deal with issues which India cannot and must not ignore. These are central to the challenges of growth, development and equality of opportunity. The objective of protecting the vulnerable must specifically take account of the fact that while India is increasingly young, middle-class, and aspirational, it is still persistently stubbornly male. All these policy issues and challenges are elaborated in Chapters 2-10 in this volume. The last section deals with what is a dramatic re-shaping of Centre-State fiscal relations. It provides a preliminary analysis of the key implications of the recommendations of the Fourteenth Finance Commission. Given the expectations surrounding the upcoming budget, one question needs to be addressed headon: Does India need Big Bang reforms? Much 2

of the cross-country evidence of the post-war years suggests that Big Bang reforms occur during or in the aftermath of major crises. Moreover, Big Bang reforms in robust democracies with multiple actors and institutions with the power to do, undo, and block, are the exception rather than the rule. India today is not in crisis, and decision-making authority is vibrantly and frustratingly diffuse. Not only are many of the levers of power vertically dispersed, reflected in the power of the states, policy-making has also become dispersed horizontally. The Supreme Court and the Comptroller and Auditor General have all exerted decisive influence over policy action and inaction. Moreover, some important reforms such as improvements to tax administration or easing the cost of doing business, require persistence and patience in their implementation, evoked in Max Weber’s memorable phrase, “slow boring of hard boards”. Hence, Big Bang reforms as conventionally understood are an unreasonable and infeasible standard for evaluating the government’s reform actions. Equally though, the mandate received by the government affords a unique window of political opportunity which should not be foregone. India needs to follow what might be called “a persistent, encompassing, and creative incrementalism” but with bold steps in a few areas that signal a decisive departure from the past and that are aimed at addressing key problems such as ramping up investment, rationalizing subsidies, creating a competitive, predictable, and clean tax policy environment, and accelerating disinvestment. Thus, Weber’s wisdom cannot be a licence for inaction or procrastination. Boldness in areas where policy levers can be more easily pulled by the center combined with that incrementalism in other areas is a combination that can cumulate over time to Big Bang reforms. That is the appropriate standard against which future reforms must be assessed.

Financial sector issues were discussed extensively in last year’s Survey.

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

1.2. MACROECONOMIC

REVIEW AND

OUTLOOK

Macroeconomic fundamentals have dramatically improved for the better, reflected in both temporal and cross-country comparisons. Start first with the changing macro-economic circumstances. The changing fortunes of India have been nothing short of dramatically positive (Figure 1.1). Inflation has declined by over 6 percentage points since late 2013, and the current account deficit has shrivelled from a peak of 6.7 percent of GDP (in Q3, 2012-13) to an estimated 1.0 percent in the coming fiscal year. Foreign portfolio flows (of US$ 38.4 billion since April 2014) have stabilized the rupee, exerting downward pressure on long-term interest rates, reflected in the yield on 10-year government securities, and contributed to the surge in equity prices (31 percent since April in rupee terms, and even more in US dollars, ranking it the highest amongst emerging markets). In a nearly 12-quarter phase of deceleration, economic growth averaged 6.7 percent but since 2013-14 has been growing at 7.2 percent on average, the later based on the new growth estimates (see Box 1.1 on how to interpret them). As a result of these improvements, India’s macroeconomic position now compares favourably with other countries. Figure 1.2 depicts an overall macro-vulnerability index (MVI) that combines a country’s fiscal deficit, current account deficit, and inflation. The index is thus comparable across countries and across time. In 2012, India was the most vulnerable country as measured by its index value of 22.4, comprising an inflation rate of 10.2 percent, a budget deficit of 7.5 percent and a current account deficit of 4.7 percent of GDP, well above that in the other countries. Turkey in 2014 surpassed India because of high current

account deficit (of nearly 8 percent). Today, India’s fortunes have improved dramatically and India demonstrated the greatest improvement in the MVI while many others maintained the status quo or showed only a marginal improvement or deteriorated dramatically (Russia). India is still more vulnerable than the mean of countries in its investor rating category (BBB) but is less so than many of its larger emerging market peers. If macro-economic stability is one key element in assessing a country’s situation/potential, its growthactual and prospective- is another. A simple way therefore to compare the relative economic situation is to supplement the macro-economic vulnerability index with a “Rational Investor Ratings Index (RIRI).”3 In assessing the risks and rewards of competing destinations, rational investors take into account not just macroeconomic stability (which proxies for risks) but also growth which crucially determines rewards and returns. In figure 1.3 this index is depicted for India and a number of comparator countries, including the BRICS, other major emerging markets (Turkey) as well as countries in India’s investor rating category (BBB) and category (A) that is above India’s. Regardless of whether Indian growth is measured according to the old methodology or the new methodology (see Box 1.1), India exhibits a dramatic improvement in the index. India ranks amongst the most attractive investment destinations, well above other countries. It ranks well above the mean for its investment grade category, and also above the mean for the investment category above it (on the basis of the new growth estimates). Amongst BRICS (and other comparable countries) only China scores above India. The reality and prospect of high and rising growth, combined with macroeconomic stability, is the promise of India going forward.

The RIRI is computed by averaging a country’s GDP growth rate and its macro-economic indicators; the latter measured as the average of the fiscal deficit, current account deficit, and inflation (all with negative signs). Thus, equal weight is given to growth and macroeconomic stability. The greater the number, the better should be its investor rating. Since, updated WEO forecasts are not publicly available for all countries, data are from Citi Group and have been updated in January assuming an oil price in the range of US$ 58-60 per barrel for 2015. Data from other sources yield very similar estimates for the RIRI. 3

Economic Survey 2014-15

Sources: Office of Economic Adviser, Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, Central Statistics Office, Reserve Bank of India and National Stock Exchange

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

Source: MoF calculations.

1.2A. Macro-economic management and policy reforms Reforms have been initiated in a number of areas and major ones are on the horizon. The macroeconomic response to the favourable terms of trade shock has led to an appropriately prudent mix of increased government savings and private consumption. The policy reforms of the new governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;actual and prospectiveâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;have attracted worldwide

attention. The cumulative impact of these reforms on reviving investment and growth could be significant. Equally important though has been macro-economic management which needs to be assessed in simple analytical terms. Since June 2014, India has experienced a very favourable terms-of-trade shock as a result of a 50-55 percent decline in the price of crude-oil and other commodities. The accepted injunction from the standard macroeconomic manual is that responses to terms-of-trade shocks should be

Economic Survey 2014-15

Box 1.1 : Revised Estimates of GDP and GDP growth Notwithstanding the new estimates, the balance of evidence and caution counsel in favour of viewing India as a recovering rather than surging economy. On January 30, the Central Statistics Office released a new GDP series that entailed shifting the base year from 200405 to 2011-12 but also using more data and deploying improved methodologies (Chapter 1 in the second volume of the Survey provides greater details). New estimates for GDP have been provided for the years 2011-12 to 2014-15. How should one view these estimates? First, the improvement in data and methods puts India on par with international standards of GDP estimation. India is perhaps unique in that GDP revisions result in lower numbers rather than the typically high upward revision seen in many countries. The key estimate for the level of GDP for 2011-12, which is the new base year, is actually 2 percent lower than previously estimated. However, the growth estimates warrant further reflection. On the one hand, directionally the growth estimate for 2014-15 relative to that for 2013-14 seems plausible and consistent with the fact of improving investor sentiment and reform actions. On the other, both directionally and in level terms, the growth estimate for 2013-14 is puzzling. According to the new estimates, growth at market prices in 2013-14 apparently accelerated by 1.8 percentage points to 6.9 percent (1.5 percentage points for growth at basic prices). These numbers seem difficult to reconcile with other developments in the economy. 2013-14 was a crisis yearâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; capital flowed out, interest rates were tightened, there was consolidationâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;and it is difficult to see how an economyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth rate could accelerate so much in such circumstances. Also, imports of goods in 2013-14 apparently declined by 10 percent, which, even accounting for the squeeze on gold imports, is high. Growth booms are typically accompanied by import surges not import declines. This boom was one over-reliant on domestic demand because the contribution of net external demand was substantially negative. This growth surge also appears to have been accompanied by dramatic declines in savings and investment ratios. For example, gross fixed capital formation declined from 33.6 percent in 2011-12 to 29.7 percent in 2013-14 while gross domestic savings declined from 33.9 percent to 30.6 percent. The implication is that the growth surge in the crisis year of 2013-14 was also a massive productivity surge, reflected in an incremental capital ratio that declined by about 30 percent, and total factor productivity growth that improved by over 2 percentage points. The data show that private corporate investment increased robustly in 2013-14 which seems at odds with stressed balance sheets and the phenomenon of stalled projects. Some clues to understanding the new series are provided in the chart below which decomposes the differences between the new series into those relating to real GDP growth and those to the deflator. This decomposition is shown sectorally. The largest discrepancies between the two series arise in 2013-14 and relate to real GDP growth for the manufacturing sector, where the magnitude is 6 percentage points! Even in 2012-13 the divergence between the two series in manufacturing is 5 percentage points. Jumps in the level of the manufacturing share of GDP can be attributed to the new methodology but it is still unclear why the rate of growth should diverge so much from previous estimates and from other indicators of manufacturing growth (viz. the index of industrial production). Even allowing for the fact that the latter is a volume index and the former a valued-added index, the discrepancy remains large. Clearly, these issues need to be examined in greater detail. Until a longer data series is available for analysis and comparisons, and until the changes can be plausibly ascribed to the respective roles of the new base, new data, and improved methodology, the growth narrative of the last few years may elude a fuller understanding. Regardless, the latest numbers will have to be the prism for viewing the Indian economy going forward because they will be the only ones on offer. But, the balance of evidence and caution counsel in favour of an interpretation of a recovering rather than surging Indian economy.

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

Source: Central Statistics Office.

determined by their nature: a positive shock that is perceived to be permanent should lead to larger consumption increases because the country’s permanent income has increased; on the other hand, temporary positive shocks should lead to greater savings. What has India done? Given the uncertainty about the nature of the shock, India has appropriately hedged. Figure 1.4 below compares the decline in international crudeoil prices with the corresponding decline in domestic retail prices of petrol and diesel. Since end-June 2014, the international price declined by about 50 percent. Of this, about 17 percent (representing about 34 percent of the overall decline) was passed on to consumers while the government retained the rest. In other words, 66 percent of the terms of trade shock went into the government’s savings with the rest being passed on to consumers. (As detailed in section 1.12, the government’s actions in this regard are also helping in form of a de-facto carbon tax.) Accounting for uncertainty about the future movement of prices, the macro-economic response has appropriately balanced savings and consumption, and by favouring the former, provided a necessary cushion to absorb the effects of higher oil prices in the future.

1.2B

OUTLOOK FOR GROWTH

In the short run, growth will receive a boost from lower oil prices, from likely monetary policy easing facilitated by lower inflation and lower inflationary expectations, and forecasts of a normal monsoon. Medium-term prospects will be conditioned by the “balance sheet syndrome with Indian characteristics,” which has the potential to hold back rapid increases in private sector investment. In the coming year, real GDP growth at market prices is estimated to be about 0.6-1.1 percentage points higher vis-a-vis 2014-15. This increase is warranted by four factors. First, the government has undertaken a number of reforms and is planning several more (Box 1.2). Their cumulative growth impact will be positive. A further impetus to growth will be provided by declining oil prices and increasing monetary easing facilitated by ongoing moderation in inflation. Simulating the effects of tax cuts, declining oil prices will add spending power to households, thereby boosting consumption and growth. Oil is also a significant input in production, and declining prices will shore up profit margins and hence balance sheets of the corporate sector. Declining input costs are reflected in the wholesale price index which moved to deflation territory in January 2015.

Economic Survey 2014-15

Further declines in inflation and the resulting monetary easing will provide policy support for growth both by encouraging household spending in interest-sensitive sectors and reducing the debt burden of firms, strengthening their balance sheets. The final favourable impulse will be the monsoon which is forecast to be normal compared to last year4. Using the new estimate for 2014-15 as the base, this implies growth at market prices of 8.18.5 percent in 2015-16. The power of growth to lift all boats will depend critically on its employment creation potential. The data on longer-term employment trends are difficult to interpret because of the bewildering multiplicity of data sources, methodology and coverage (see Box 1.3). One tentative conclusion is that there has probably been a decline in long run employment growth in the 2000s relative to the 1990s and probably also a decline in the

employment elasticity of growth: that is, a given amount of growth leads to fewer jobs created than in the past. Given the fact that labour force growth (roughly 2.2-2.3 percent) exceeds employment growth (roughly about 1Â˝ percent), the challenge of creating opportunities will remain significant. 1.2C Outlook for reforms In the months ahead, several reforms will help boost investment and growth. The budget should continue the process of fiscal consolidation, embedding actions in a medium-term framework. Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s overall revenue-to-GDP ratio (for the general government) for 2014 is estimated at 19.5 percent by the IMF. This needs to move toward levels in comparator countriesâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;estimated at 25 percent for emerging Asian economies and 29 percent for the emerging market countries in the G-20. At the same time, expenditure control should

Source: PPAC, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas and PIB, Govt. of India. Note: Prices for petrol and diesel are all India average.

.http://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/el-nino-scare-abandoned-normal-indianmonsoon-likely-in-2015/ 4

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

Box 1.2 : Reform Actions of the New Government Since assuming office in May 2014, the new government has undertaken a number of new reform measures whose cumulative impact could be substantial. These include:

• Deregulating diesel prices, paving the way for new investments in this sector; • Raising gas prices from US$ 4.2 per million British thermal unit to US$ 5.6, and linking pricing, transparently

and automatically, to international prices so as to provide incentives for greater gas supply and thereby relieving the power sector bottlenecks;

• Taxing energy products. Since October, taking advantage of declining oil prices, the excise tax on diesel and coal was increased four times. In addition to resulting in collections of about ` 70,000 crore (on an annualized basis), this action will have positive environmental consequences, as explained in section 1.12;

• Replacing the cooking gas subsidy by direct transfers on a national scale; • Instituting the Expenditure Management Commission, which has submitted its interim report for rationalizing expenditures;

• Passing an ordinance to reform the coal sector via auctions; • Securing the political agreement on the goods and services tax (GST) that will allow legislative passage of the constitutional amendment bill;

• Instituting a major program for financial inclusion—the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana under which over 12.5 crore new accounts have been opened till mid-February 2014;

• Continuing the push to extending coverage under the Aadhaar program, targeting enrollment for 1 billion

Indians; as of early February, 757 million Indians had been bio-identified and 139-Aadhaar linked bank accounts created;

• Increasing FDI caps in defense; • Eliminating the quantitative restrictions on gold; • Passing an ordinance to make land acquisition less onerous, thereby easing the cost of doing business, while ensuring that farmers get fair compensation;

• Facilitating Presidential Assent for labour reforms in Rajasthan, setting an example for further reform initiatives by the states; and consolidating and making transparent a number of labour laws; and

• Passing an ordinance increasing the FDI cap in insurance to 49 percent. Commencing a program of disinvestments under which 10 percent of the government’s stake in Coal India was offered to the public, yielding about ` 22,500 crore, of which ` 5,800 crore was from foreign investors;

• Passing the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) (MMDR) Amendment Ordinance, 2015 is a significant step in revival of the hitherto stagnant mining sector in the country. The process of auction for allotment would usher in greater transparency and boost revenues for the States.

be consolidated while ensuring that there is switching from public consumption to public investment, with a focus on eliminating leakages and improving targeting in the provision of subsidies. To provide legal certainty and confidence to investors, the ordinances on coal, insurance, and land need to be translated into legislation approved by Parliament. At the same time, the constitutional amendment bill to implement the goods and services tax (GST) also needs to be enshrined in

legislation first by Parliament followed by ratification by the States. A single GST rate (across States and products) set at internationally competitive levels with limited exemptions would maximize its pro-growth, pro-compliance, and pro-single market creating potential. While the framework for a modern and comprehensive indirect tax system is being put in place with the GST, parallel efforts are required

Economic Survey 2014-15

Box 1.3: Employment Growth and Employment Elasticity: What is the Evidence? Estimates of employment growth and its elasticity relative to economic growth vary widely. However, tentatively, one might say that employment growth and elasticity have declined in the 2000s compared to the 1990s. Since labour force growth is in excess of employment growth, labour absorption will be a challenge. Reforms and faster economic growth will be central to meeting it. If the new GDP estimates have raised questions about our understanding of recent economic developments, deciphering patterns of employment growth is no less a challenge. There is almost a bewildering variety of estimates on employment growth in India. Data come from multiple sources, for different time periods, coverage and sample sizes, with varying methodologies. These are described in the table below.

Table : Periodicity, Coverage and Population size of different Data Sources Sl. Data Source

Periodicity

Sector Coverage

Population/Sample

Census

Decadal

All

Population

Labour Bureau (LB)

Annual

All

Sample (1.37 lakh households, 6.80 lakh persons in 2013-14 survey)

National Sample Survey (NSS)

Quinquennial

All

Sample (1.02 lakh households, 4.57 lakh persons in 2011-12 round)

Economic Census (EC) No fixed periodicity

All establishments including the unorganized sector and excluding crop production, plantation, public administration, defence and compulsory social security.

Sample (25 lakh households, 56 million establishments in 2014 EC)

Annual Survey of Industries (ASI)

All factories registered under Sections 2m(i) and 2m(ii) of the Factories Act, 1948 + all electricity undertakings engaged in generation, transmission and distribution of electricity registered with the Central Electricity Authority (CEA)

2.17 lakh factories in 2012-13 survey

Annual

Notes: 1. Census classifies employed as main and marginal. 2. NSS accounts for both principal and subsidiary status of employment. 3. From the Labour Bureau survey, we estimate population for the age group 15 and above. 4. For ASI data from 2000-01 to 2003-04, the census field was modified to include units employing 100 and more workers instead of 200 and more workers. Therefore post 2000-01 data are not strictly comparable with that of previous rounds.

What do these sources tell us about employment growth and the elasticity of employment growth with respect to GDP growth for the 1990s and 2000s?1 The results are summarized in the table below.

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

Table : Employment Growth And Employment Elasticities CENSUS 1991 to 2001 Change in Employment (million) Employment Growth GDP Growth Employment Elasticity

NSS

LABOUR BUREAU

2001 1993-94 1999-00 2011-12 to to 1999to to 2011 2000 2011-12 2013-14

ECONOMIC CENSUS 1990 to 1998

ASI

1998 1990-91 2003-04 to to to 2014 1998-99 2012-13

88.4

79.2

25.5

73.4

9.15

12.9

44.4

0.43

5.07

2.5 5.7 0.44

1.8 7.7 0.24

1.1 6.8 0.16

1.4 7.3 0.19

1.0 4.6 0.22

2.1 6.1 0.35

2.7 6.6 0.41

0.6 5.5 0.12

5.7 10.7 0.54

A few very tentative conclusions can be drawn from what are fairly noisy estimates. Aggregate employment growth has been above 2 percent in the 1990s. The Census and Economic Census are fairly close to each other in this regard, although the NSS data paints a different picture. Employment growth declines to between 1.4 and 1.8 percent in the 2000s according to both the Census and NSS. In contrast, employment growth in organized industry exhibits the opposite temporal pattern, with substantially higher employment growth in the 2000s compared with the 1990s. A similar pattern is suggested for the employment elasticity of growth: higher elasticity of about 0.350.44 in the 1990s and a drop to close to 0.2 in the 2000s. The most recent data from the Labour Bureau indicates that since 2011-12 too, the employment elasticity has remained low. Employment absorption was evidently less successful in the last decade. Regardless of which data source is used, it seems clear that employment growth is lagging behind growth in the labour force. For example, according to the Census, between 2001 and 2011, labor force growth was 2.23 percent (male and female combined). This is lower than most estimates of employment growth in this decade of closer to 1.4 percent. Creating more rapid employment opportunities is clearly a major policy challenge. In computing the employment elasticity, consistency of coverage between the employment and growth data is ensured to the extent possible. For example, for EC data, manufacturing GDP is used as the relevant base; while for ASI data gross value addition (deflated by Manufacturing GDP) is used as the base in the computations. 1

References: Misra, Sangita and Anoop K Suresh “Estimating Employment Elasticity of Growth for the Indian Economy”, 2014, RBI Working Paper Series 6. Mehrotra, Santosh “Explaining Employment Trends in the Indian Economy: 1993-94 to 2011-12”, 2014, Economic and Political Weekly, XLIX(32).

on the direct tax side. The objective should be to create a competitive, predictable, clean, and exemptions-light tax policy regime that will lower the cost of capital, incentivize savings, and facilitate taxpayer compliance. The government and the RBI need to conclude the monetary policy framework agreement to consolidate the recent gains in inflation control and codify into an institutional arrangement what has become the de facto practice. This would signal

that both government and RBI jointly share the objectives of low and stable inflation. Reforms of labor and land laws and reducing the costs of doing business will need to be a joint endeavor of the States and Center (see Box 3 of the Mid-Year Economic Analysis 2014-15 for an elaboration). The game-changing potential of implementing the GST and moving to technologyenabled Direct Benefit Transfers— which we call the JAM (Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile) Number Trinity solution-should not be underestimated.

Economic Survey 2014-15

1.3 INFLATION AND MONEY Structural shifts in the inflationary process are underway caused by lower oil prices and deceleration in agriculture prices and wages. These are simultaneously being reflected in dramatically improved household inflation expectations. The economy is likely to overperform on the RBI’s inflation target by about 0.5-1.0 percentage point, opening up the space for further monetary policy easing. As elaborated in the Mid-Year Economic Analysis 2014-15, the evolution in inflation has surprised market participants and policy makers, including the RBI. The momentum, measured as the three month average seasonally adjusted and annualized, has declined from nearly 15 percent to below 5 percent (Figure 1.5).5 Interestingly, the momentum of food prices has declined even more and is at levels below overall inflation. Going forward, this momentum is likely to persist because of three striking developments in three areas that signal a structural shift in the inflationary process in India: crude-oil, agriculture, and inflation expectations. Crude-oil prices are expected to remain benign in the coming months. Indeed, the average of estimates by the IMF for (crude spot) and by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) for Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude indicates that oil prices will be about 29 percent lower in 2015-16 compared with 2014-15 (US$ 59 versus US$ 82) (Figure 1.6). The risk that the decline in oil prices will reverse itself always exists because of unpredictable geopolitical developments. However, the persistence of moderated oil prices seems highly probable for at least three reasons: weaker global demand, increased supplies, and the global monetary and liquidity environment.

Demand will remain soft because of slow growth in major areas of the world economy, including China and Europe. Supply shifts are occurring related to the increase in crude-oil and shale gas production in the US and the concomitant decline in the oligopolistic power of OPEC, notably its swing producer, Saudi Arabia (which decided not to react to the increase in supply from other sources). Going forward, prices could increasingly be determined by the marginal cost of shale production estimated at around US$ 60-65 per barrel.6 Finally, the anticipated end to the abnormally low interest cycle in the US and the prospect of future rate increases will favour extraction of oil over keeping it in the ground, thereby further boosting supply and keeping prices soft. Higher rates will also lead to financial asset-reallocation away from commodities, especially oil, as a class into US financial instruments. One lesson of the 2000s is instructive. This decade witnessed an across-the-board increase in commodity prices partly on account of excess liquidity, created by synchronized monetary policy easing in the advanced countries. That synchronization has been broken by the diverging macro-economic paths of the United States, where recovery will lead to a reversion to normal monetary policy, on the one hand, and Europe and Japan, on the other, where policies may remain loose. Of course, if China starts slowing and responds through a combination of cheaper credit and a depreciating exchange rate, global liquidity could surge again but the US will still be in tightening mode. Second, in addition to oil prices, India’s inflation will be shaped by pressures from agriculture, foreign and domestic. According to World Bank projections, global agricultural prices will remain muted- a likely decline of 4.8 percent in 2015

Figure 1.5 is based on the new, re-based (from 2010 to 2012) CPI index.

Arezki, R & Olivier Blanchard, “The 2014 oil price slump: Seven key questions”, January 2015 accessed at http://www.voxeu.org/article/2014-oil-price-slump-seven-key-questions.

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

Source: CSO.

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Economic Survey 2014-15

relative to 2014. This will likely have a key impact in moderating increases in domestic support prices.7 The most dramatic structural change relates to wage pressures. As shown in Figure 1.7, wage growth has declined to about 3.6 percent from over 20 percent. If these trends continue, rural wage growth can continue to decelerate, further moderating inflationary pressures. The third factor relates to inflation expectations. Until recently, household surveys of inflation expectation conducted by the RBI showed that expectations have been stubbornly persistent and at levels well above actual inflation. But in the most recent survey they dropped by nearly 7-8 percentage points over all horizons (Figure 1.8). If this change conveys some information, inflation

expectations will increasingly be anchored at more reasonable levels, moderating wage setting. In sum, the structural shift that was argued in the Mid-Year Economic Analysis 2014-15 seems well under way. Consumer price inflation which is likely to print at 6.5 percent for 2014-15 is likely to decline further. Our estimate for 2015-16 is for CPI inflation to be in 5.0-5.5 percent range and for the GDP deflator to be in the 2.8-3.0 percent range. The implication is that the economy will over-perform on inflation which would clear the path for further monetary policy easing. Trends in financial markets suggest that there has been a gradual easing of deposit rates in recent few months as yields on 10 year government bonds have been falling consistently during this period (Figure 1.9). Declining yields could trigger

Source: Labour Bureau.

The domestic production of oilseeds and pulses is likely to be below target, but greater imports could help dampen inflationary impulses from this sector. 7

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

Source: RBI.

reduction in lending rates by banks in the coming months. With the easing of inflationary conditions, the RBI has already signalled a shift in the monetary policy stance when it cut policy repo rates by 25 basis points to 7.75 percent in January 2015. In some ways, further monetary policy easing would entail the policy rate catching up with market rates. Liquidity conditions have remained broadly balanced so far during 2014-15. The implementation of a revised liquidity management framework has helped in reducing volatility in the overnight inter-bank segment and better anchoring the call rate near the policy rate. With the fiscal deficit to remain under control and the new liquidity management framework in place, liquidity conditions are expected to remain comfortable in 2015-16.

1.4 EXTERNAL SECTOR The outlook is favourable for the current account and its financing. A likely surfeit, rather than scarcity, of foreign capital will complicate exchange rate management. Risks from a shift in US monetary policy and turmoil in the Eurozone need to be watched but could remain within control.

The outlook for the external sector is perhaps the most favourable since the 2008 global financial crisis, and especially compared to 2012-13, when elevated oil and gold imports fuelled a surge in the current account deficit. Global crude petroleum prices averaged about US$ 47/ bbl in January 2015 and about US$ 90/bbl for the year as a whole (April 2014-January 2015). Assuming a further moderation in average annual price of crude petroleum and other products, the current account deficit is estimated at about 1.3 per cent of GDP for 2014-15 and less than 1.0 per cent of GDP in 2015-16. A rule of thumb is that a US$10 reduction in the price of oil helps improve the net trade and hence current account balance by US$ 9.4 billion. Moderated gold imports will also help sustain a manageable current account deficit. Since the elimination of restrictions on gold in November, gold imports have fallen well below the elevated levels seen in 2013. Declining international prices as well as moderating inflation have meant that gold imports averaged US$ 1.3 billion in December 2014 and US$ 1.6 billion in January 2015 compared with US$ 4.2 billion in October 2014 and US$ 5.6 billion in November 2014.

Economic Survey 2014-15

Source: Bloomberg.

The outlook for external financing is correspondingly favourable, and surfeit rather than scarcity may pose the greater challenge. Financial flows in 2014-15 are likely to be in excess of US$ 55 billion, leading to a sizeable accretion to reserves by about US$ 26 billion, to about US$ 340 billion (Figure 1.10). This has been facilitated by extensive RBI exchange market intervention. These inflows are likely to continue through a large part of 2015-16. A key implication is that if the current account deficit is lower, a given level of capital inflows will create greater upward pressure on the rupee. One source of concern is muted export growth and rising non-oil, non-gold imports which could be affected by India’s deteriorating competitiveness, reflected in the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate by 8.5 per cent since January 2014. The interesting fact here is that higher inflation in India relative to trading partners is contributing only 2.3 percentage points, with the remaining 6.2 percentage points accounted for by the rupee strengthening in nominal terms against other currencies. In other words, surging capital inflows, notwithstanding the intervention by

the RBI both in spot and forward markets, accounts for the bulk of the deteriorating competitiveness. Reconciling the benefits of these flows with their impact on exports and the current account remains an important challenge going forward. The RBI, in other words, will be on the trident of the macroeconomic trilemma, struggling to reconcile capital account openness and surging inflows, monetary policy independence, and the economy’s competitiveness. Four factors pose risks to the external situation: •

renewed financial market volatility in response to US Federal Reserve monetary tightening which is expected later this year;

•

possible turmoil if the viability of the Eurozone were to come into question in the event of a Greek exit;

•

a spike in oil prices related to geopolitical events; and

•

a slowly deteriorating international trade environment.

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

Source: RBI.

Two points are worth noting on the risks emanating from the Fed and Eurozone. First, India may be vulnerable because a substantial portion of the foreign flows since March 2014 are interest sensitive. Of the total portfolio cumulative flows (US$ 38.4 billion), about US$ 23.8 billion have been portfolio debt flows. The decline in yields on government and corporate bonds shown in Figure 1.9 reflects these flows. Fed tightening could lead to reversal of some of these inflows, placing downward pressure on the rupee.

Source: RBI.

However, India is more resilient today than in 2014 or 2013 not only because of greater reserves, but more importantly, due to a healthier macroeconomic position. While complacency is never warranted, over-anxiety should also be kept at bay. In the medium-term, it is perhaps the trade challenge that is a greater source of concern (see section 1.11 below). A larger issue on the external front is geo-strategic. If power used to flow from the barrel of a gun, in an increasingly inter-dependent economic world,

Economic Survey 2014-15

hard and soft power derive from a war-chest of foreign exchange reserves. Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s abundant reserves have highlighted this fact. Reserves provide a cushion against shocks, creating economic and financial resilience. But they also create geo-political influence. Today, China has de-facto become one of the lenders of last resort to governments experiencing financial troubles. It has also become one of the bigger providers of development assistance both bilaterally and plurilaterally. China, in its own heterodox and multiple ways, is assuming the roles of both an International Monetary Fund and a World Bank as a result of its reserves. The acquisition of reserves is not costless because it requires a policy of mercantilism and consequential distortion of financial and exchange markets. But there is a cost-benefit analysis that needs to be undertaken. The question for India, as a rising economic and political power, is whether it too should consider a substantial addition to its reserves, preferably its own reserves acquired though running cumulative current account surpluses, possibly targeting a level of US$ 750 billion- 1 trillion over the long run.

1.5 AGRICULTURE The First Advance Estimate of Kharif crops (JulySeptember 2014) indicates lower production compared to the last year. However, the estimate is generally revised upwards. The Rabi crops data released by the Directorate of Economics and Statistics recently indicates that although the total area coverage has declined, area under wheat has gone down marginally by 2.9 per cent. Nevertheless, for 2014-15, the CSO has estimated a positive growth rate of 1.1 per cent for agriculture despite lower rainfall that was only 88 per cent of long-period average, and following a bumper year in 2013-14. The CSO estimate is value-added while agricultural production data are volume

based, hence positive agricultural GDP growth is not inconsistent with volume declines because input costs have declined sharply. But perhaps a deeper shift in agriculture may be under way which calls for greater attention to this sector. The decade long shift in the terms of trade toward agriculture may have come to an end as global agricultural prices have peaked. This is illustrated in figure 1.12 which plots the terms of trade for agriculture according to two different measures. Both show a slow decline after 201011, following several years of improvement.8 As the terms of trade deteriorate and as rural incomes come under pressure (see also Figure 1.7), the political pressure for support will increase. Already, there have been proposals to raise tariffs in a number of sectors like oilseeds and pulses and to provide export subsidies in sugar. One response in the short run must be to enhance targeted support for the vulnerable in agriculture, namely the small farmer and agricultural labourer. The MGNREGA program has the virtue of being reasonably well-targeted. The challenge here is to build on this feature and use the program to build assets such as rural roads, micro-irrrigation and water management, while also shoring up rural incomes. In the medium-term, the time is ripe for a more broad-based response to the challenges in agriculture and to ensure that agriculture grows at about 4 percent on a sustained basis. One of the most striking problems is how unintegrated and distortions-ridden are our agricultural markets (see chapter 8 of this volume, which also offers possible solutions). India needs a national common market for agricultural commodities by making the Agricultural Produce Market Committees (APMCs) just one among

The TOT indices are based on the following formulae adopted by the Group (WG) in May 2012 under the chairmanship of Professor S. Mahendra Dev. 8

(1) Index of Terms of Trade ď&#x20AC;˝

Index of Price Received for Farm Products X 100 Index of Price Paid for Farm Inputs, Final Consumption and Capital Investment

(2) Index of Terms of Trade ď&#x20AC;˝

Index of Price Received for Farm Products and Agricultural Wages X 100 Index of Price Paid for Farm Inputs, Final Consumption and Capital Investment

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

Source: Refer to footnote 8.

many options available for the farmers to sell their produce. Rationalisation of subsidies and better targeting of beneficiaries through direct transfers would generate part of the resources for the public investment that is essential in research, education, extension, irrigation, water-management, soil testing, warehousing and cold-storage. Distortions emerging from various policies, including, exempting user charges for electricity and water need to be reduced, though better targeting and eliminating leakages. The recommendations of the Shanta Kumar Committee provide useful suggestions for the future road-map of food-policy. The functioning of the Food Corporation of India needs to be revamped substantially. There are also wide differences in the yields within states. Even the best of the states have much lower yield in different crops when compared to the best in the world. This is evident from the Table 1.1 below. Vast amounts of cropped area (approximately 41 percent) are still unirrigated. Providing irrigation can improve yields substantially. For a shift in the underlying production function, investment in basic research will be necessary. This provides ample

opportunity to increase production by bridging the yield-gap to the extent feasible within the climatic zone. Institutionally, the time may be ripe for reassessing the role of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), its relationships with the state agricultural universities as well as with individual institutes (say the Indian Agricultural Research Institute or the National Dairy Research Institute), and whether research, education, and extension should be separated. To provide efficient advance price-discovery to farmers and enable them to hedge price risks the Forward Markets Commission is being strengthened. The concern that there may be unnecessary speculation should be addressed though more effective regulation along the lines of the recommendations made by the Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission (FSLRC).

1.6

T HE

GROWTH - FISCAL POLICY

CHALLENGE

India can balance the short-term imperative of boosting public investment to revitalize growth with the need to maintain fiscal discipline. Expenditure control and expenditure switching, from consumption to investment, both in the upcoming budget and in the medium term will be key.

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 1.1: Crop Yield Comparison: India versus the World Crop

India Highest Yield (State)

World Highest Yield

Paddy

Punjab - 3952

China - 6661

Wheat

Punjab - 5017

UK - 7360

Maize

Tamil Nadu - 5372

USA - 8858

Chickpeas

Andhra Pradesh - 1439

Ethiopia - 1663

Cotton

Punjab - 750

Australia - 1920

Rapeseed/Mustard Seed

Gujarat - 1723

UK - 3588

Note: Figures are in yield/kg/hectare and pertain to 2012.

The Medium-Term Fiscal Framework Notwithstanding the challenging nature of the 2014-15 budget, elaborated in the Mid-Year Economic Analysis 2014-15, the Government will adhere to the fiscal target of 4.1 per cent of GDP. Despite weakness in revenue collection and delayed disinvestment, new excises on diesel and petrol (revenue yield of about ` 20,000 crores), reduced subsidies, and expenditure compression will ensure the commitment to discipline. India can reconcile the requirements of fiscal consolidation and the imperative of boosting public investment to revive growth and crowd-in private investment provided the right lessons are learnt. How so? Since this is the first full budget of the new government, and especially in light of the farreaching recommendations of the Fourteenth Finance Commission, the time is ripe for reviewing the medium-term framework and setting targets for the upcoming year against that background and taking account of the lessons of recent history (Figure 1.13). Three phases marked recent fiscal history. In the first (2002-08), rapid growth improved all fiscal aggregates, flows and stocks. But failure to control expenditure, especially revenue expenditure, towards the end of that phase, combined with excessive counter-cyclical policies in the second phase (2009-12) led to a loss of fiscal control that contributed to the near-crisis of 2013. A casualty has been low and stagnating capital expenditure. In the third phase (2013-today), a modicum of

fiscal stability has been restored. This history suggests the following strategy going forward. First, in the medium term, India must meet its medium-term target of 3 percent of GDP. This will provide the fiscal space to insure against future shocks and also to move closer to the fiscal performance of its emerging market peers. It must also reverse the trajectory of recent years and move toward the â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;golden ruleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; of eliminating revenue deficits and ensuring that, over the cycle, borrowing is only for capital formation. Second, the way to achieve these targets will be expenditure control and expenditure switching from consumption to investment. And the secular decline in capital expenditure in the last decade has undermined Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s long run growth potential. From 2016-17, as growth gathers steam and as the GST is implemented, the consequential tax buoyancy when combined with expenditure control will ensure that medium term targets can be comfortably met. This buoyancy is assured by history because over the course of the growth surge in the last decade, the overall tax-GDP ratio increased by about 2.7 percentage points, from 9.2 percent in 2003-04 to 11.9 per cent in 2007-08 even without radical tax reform. Third, the medium-term commitment to discipline cannot result in an Augustinian deferment of actions. In the upcoming year, too, fiscal consolidation must continue. However, the need for accelerated fiscal consolidation has lessened because macroeconomic pressures have significantly abated with the dramatic decline in inflation and turnaround in the current account deficit. In these circumstances,

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

Source: Budget Documents and CSO. Note: Numbers for 2013-14 and 2014-15 are revised estimates and budget estimates, respectively.

especially if the economy is recovering rather than surging, pro-cyclical policy is less than optimal. Debt dynamics also remain favourable going forward, ensuring a steady strengthening of public sector balance sheets. Further, accelerated fiscal consolidation will have to be conditioned in the upcoming fiscal year by a number of new and exceptional factors, such as implementing the recommendations of the Fourteenth Finance Commission, clearing the compensation obligations to the states for the reduction in the central sales tax in 2007-08 and 2008-09, and the need to increase public investment. Nevertheless, to ensure fiscal credibility, and consistency with the medium-term goals, the upcoming budget should initiate the process of expenditure control to reduce both the fiscal and revenue deficits. At the same time, the quality of expenditure needs to be shifted from consumption, by reducing subsidies, toward investment. Broadly speaking, the additional space opened up, including through a reduction in subsidies and higher disinvestment proceeds, should be occupied by public investment. Increases in the tax-GDP ratio,

stemming from the excise tax increases on petroleum products, will also help achieve both short and medium term fiscal goals.

1.7

WIPING EVERY TEAR FROM EVERY EYE: THE JAM NUMBER TRINITY SOLUTION The debate is not about whether but how best to provide active government support to the poor and vulnerable. Cash-based transfers based on the JAM number trinity—Jan Dhan, Aadhaar, Mobile— offer exciting possibilities to effectively target public resources to those who need it most. Success in this area will allow prices to be liberated to perform their role of efficiently allocating resources and boosting long-run growth. Sixty eight years after Independence, poverty remains one of India’s largest and most pressing problems. No nation can become great when the life chances of so many of its citizens are benighted by poor nutrition, limited by poor learning opportunities, and shrivelled by gender discrimination (discussed in section 1.13). The

Economic Survey 2014-15

recent Annual Survey of Education Report (ASER), which shows stagnation in learning outcomes over the past decade, makes for sobering reading (see Box in Volume 2, Chapter 9). Economic growth is good for the poor, both directly because it raises incomes and because it generates resources to invest in the public services and social safety nets that the poor need. Growth – and the prospects and opportunities that it brings – also encourages individuals to invest in their own human capital. A recent study found strikingly that merely informing families in villages outside Bangalore that call centres were hiring educated women increased the likelihood that adolescent girls in those villages completed school9. However, growth must be complemented with effective state-delivered programs that raise the living standards of the most vulnerable in society. To be successful, anti-poverty programs must recognise that policies shape the incentives of individuals and firms, and also acknowledge the limited implementation capacity of the state to target and deliver public services to the poor. Both the central and state governments subsidise a wide range of products with the expressed intention of making these affordable for the poor. Rice, wheat, pulses, sugar, kerosene, LPG, naphtha, water, electricity, fertiliser, iron ore, railways – these are just a subset of the products and services that the government subsidises. The estimated direct fiscal costs of these (select) subsidies are about ` 378,000 crore or about 4.2 percent of GDP. This is roughly how much it would cost to raise the expenditure of every household to that of a household at the 35th percentile of the income distribution10 (which is well above the poverty line of 21.9 percent11 ). Table 1.2 below

presents some rough, illustrative estimates of the cost of these subsidies and who benefits from them. Price subsidies, no doubt provide help, but they may not have a transformative effect on the economic lives of the poor. For many subsidies, only a small fraction of the benefits actually accrue to the poor. For example, electricity subsidies benefit mainly the (relatively wealthy) 67.2 percent of households that are electrified12. A large fraction of subsidies allocated to water utilities are spent on subsidising private taps when 60 percent of poor households get their water from public taps13. Moreover, the implementation of subsidies can be fiendishly complex. In the case of fertilizers, they are firm-specific and import-consignment specific, they vary by type of fertilizer, and some are on a fixed-quantity basis while others are variable. Subsidies are also susceptible to the brutal logic of self-perpetuation. In the case of sugar, to protect sugar cane producers high support prices are awarded; to offset this tax on mill owners, they are supported through subsidized loans and export subsidies; and then they are again taxed by placing restrictions on sales of molasses that are produced as a by-product. Different subsidies also interact to hurt the poor. For example, fertiliser manufacturers do not have the incentive to sell their product in hard-to-access regions, since price controls mean that prices are similar everywhere, so freight subsidies on railways have been introduced to incentivise manufacturers to supply their produce widely. But those subsidies are sometimes insufficient, since freight rates are among the highest in the world, and intentionally so, to cross-subsidise artificially low passenger fares. This is an example of how a mesh of wellmeaning price controls distort incentives in a way that ultimately hurt poor households.

Jensen, Robert, “Do Labor Market Opportunities Affect Young Women’s Work and Family Decisions? Experimental Evidence from India” 2012, Quarterly Journal of Economics. 10 Economic Survey of India 2014-15, Vol. I, Chapter 3. 11 Planning Commission, July 2013, reporting on the Tendulkar Commission (http://planningcommission.nic.in/ news/pre_pov2307.pdf) 12 Census of India (2011), Source of Lighting. 13 Do Current Water Subsidies reach the poor?, MIT and World Bank working paper (http://web.mit.edu/ urbanupgrading/waterandsanitation/resources/pdf-files/WaterTariff-4.pdf) 9

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

Table 1.2 : How much do subsidies benefit the poor Product

Producer subsidy

Consumer subsidy

Fiscal Fiscal What share of benefits accrue expenditure expenditure to the poor? (Cr.) (percent of 2011-12GDP)

Railways

N/A

Subsidised passenger fares¹

` 51,000 0.57

The bottom 80 percent of households constitute only 28.1 percent of total passenger through fare on railways

Liquefied petroleum gas

N/A

Subsidy (now via DBT)

` 23,746

0.26

The bottom 50 percent of households only consume 25 percent of LPG

Kerosene

N/A

Subsidy via PDS

` 20,415

0.23

41 percent of PDS kerosene allocation are lost as leakage, and only 46 percent of the remainder is consumed by poor households

Fertiliser & nitrogenous commodities

Firm and nutrient Maximum specific subsidies to manufacturers. Import of urea regulated by the government

` 73,790 0.82

Rice (paddy) Price floor (minimum support price)

Subsidy via PDS

` 129,000

1.14

Wheat

Pulses

` 158

Electricity

Price floor (MSP) Subsidy

Subsidy via PDS Capped below market price

0.002

Water

N/A

Subsidy

` 14,208

0.50

Sugar for sugar cane farmers, subsidy to mills Total

Minimum price

Subsidy via PDS

` 33,000

0.37

` 377,616

4.24

` 32,300 0.36

Urea and P&K manufacturers derive most economic benefit from the subsidy, since farmers, especially poor farmers, have elastic demand for fertiliser 15 percent of PDS rice is lost as leakage. Households in the bottom 3 deciles consume 53 percent of the remaining 85 percent that reaches households 54 percent of PDS wheat is lost as leakage. Households in the bottom 3 deciles consume 56 percent of the remaining 46 percent that reaches households The bottom 3 deciles consume 36 percent of subsidised pulses Average monthly consumption of bottom quintile = 45 kWh vs top quintile = 121 kWh. Bottom quintile captures only 10 percent of the total electricity subsidies, top quintile captures 37 percent of subsidy Most water subsidies are allocated to private taps, whereas 60 percent of poor households get their water from public taps 48 percent of PDS sugar is lost as leakage. Households in the bottom 3 deciles consume 44 percent of the remaining 52 percent that reaches households

All expenditure deciles are based on data from the household expenditure module of the 68th Round of the NSS (2011-12) Railways – www.ncaer.org/free-download.php?pID=111 , p107 & NSS 68th round LPG – Computations from the 68th Round of the NSS (2011-12) Kerosene – Economic Survey of India 2014-15, Vol. I ,Chapter 3. Fertiliser – Agricultural Input Survey, http://inputsurvey.dacnet.nic.in/nationaltable3.aspx Rice & wheat – Economic Survey of India 2014-15,Vol. I, Chapter 3. Pulses – Computations from the 68th Round of the NSS (2011-12) Water – Report by MIT and World Bank http://web.mit.edu/urbanupgrading/waterandsanitation/resources/pdffiles/WaterTariff-4.pdf , p2 Sugar – Department of Food & Public Distribution (http://dfpd.nic.in/fcamin/sugar/Notice1.pdf)

Economic Survey 2014-15

Fertiliser subsides illustrate another difficulty with using price subsidies as a core anti-poverty strategy. The true economic incidence of a subsidy depends on the relative elasticities of demand and supply, with the party less responsive to price changes benefiting more from a subsidy. The ultimate aim of subsidising fertiliser is to provide farmers with access to cheap fertilisers to incentivise usage and cultivation of high-yielding varieties. Yet because it is likely that farmers’ demand for fertiliser is more sensitive to prices14 than fertiliser manufacturers’ supply, the larger share of economic benefits from the price subsidy probably accrue to the fertiliser manufacturer and the richer farmer who accounts for a larger share of fertiliser consumption, not the beneficiary most in need, namely the poor farmer. High minimum support for rice and wheat distort crop choice, leading to water-intensive cultivation in areas where water tables have been dropping like a stone, and ultimately induce greater price volatility in non-MSP supported crops which hurts consumers, especially poor households who have volatile incomes and lack the assets to weather economic shocks. High MSPs also penalise risktaking by farmers who have ventured into nontraditional crops. At first glance, kerosene seems a good candidate for price subsidies as it is popularly conceived to be consumed mostly by the poor, and yet work done in this Survey (Chapter 3) based on NSS data show that only 59 percent of subsidised kerosene allocated via the PDS is actually consumed by households, with the remainder lost to leakage, and only 46 percent of total consumption is by poor households. Even in the case of the food distributed via the PDS, leakages are very high (about 15 percent for rice and 54 percent for wheat, with most of these leakages concentrated in the APL segment).

This illustrates the importance of basing antipoverty policy on data rather than popular perception. It also underscores the need for policymakers to acknowledge as a first-order concern the state’s own constraints in implementing effective, well-targeted programs. Technology is increasingly affording better means for the government to improve the economic lives of the poor. The JAM Number Trinity– Jan Dhan Yojana, Aadhaar and Mobile numbers— might well be a game changer because it expands the set of welfare and anti-poverty policies that the state can implement in future. These technological innovations have renewed academic interest in the potential of direct cash transfers to help the poor. Recent experimental evidence documents that unconditional cash transfers – if targeted well – can boost household consumption and asset ownership and reduce food security problems for the ultra-poor.15 Cash transfers can also augment the effectiveness of existing anti-poverty programs, like the MGNREGA. A recent study16 reported evidence from Andhra Pradesh where MGNREGA and social security payments were paid through Aadhaar-linked bank accounts. Households received payments faster with the new Aadhaarlinked DBT system, and leakages decreased so much that the value of the fiscal savings – due to reduced leakages – were 8 times greater than the cost of implementing the program. Much of the leakage reduction resulting from biometric identification stems from fewer ghost beneficiaries. Indeed, the government is already realizing the gains from direct benefit transfers areas by paying cooking gas subsidies directly into the bank accounts of 9.75 crore recipients. For the agriculture sector which is currently under stress, this evidence creates possibilities. The virtue

One estimate suggests that farmers’ demand for fertiliser falls by nearly 6.4 percent for a 10 percent increase in fertiliser prices. Dholakia, R.H. and Jagdip Majumdar, “Estimation of Price Elasticity of Fertilizer Demand in India”, 2006, Working Paper. 15 Johannes Haushofer & Jeremy Shapiro, “Household Response to Income Changes: Evidence from an Unconditional Cash Transfer Program in Kenya”, 2013, Working Paper. 16 Karthik Muralidharan, Paul Niehaus & Sandip Sukhtankar, “Building State Capacity: Evidence from Biometric Smartcards in India”, 2014, Working Paper. 14

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

of MGNREGA, for all its deficiencies, is that it is self-targeting. If the program could lead to the creation of rural assets such as rural roads, microirrigation and water management infrastructure, and if leakages could be minimized through the JAM number trinity, rural India could witness both the creation of opportunity and protection of the vulnerable. Today there are about 125.5 million Jan Dhan bank accounts17, 757 million Aadhaar numbers, and approximately 904 million mobile phones18. It is possible to envisage that when the JAM trinity becomes linked, the goal of periodic and seamless financial transfers to bank accounts after identification through the Aadhaar number can be implemented with immeasurable benefits to helping the lives of the poor. The heady prospect for the Indian economy is that, with strong investments in state capacity, that Nirvana today seems within reach. It will be a Nirvana for two reasons—the poor will be protected and provided for; and many prices in India will be liberated to perform their role of efficiently allocating resources and boosting long-run growth. Even as it focuses on second and third generation reforms in factor markets, India will then be able to complete the basic first generation reforms. This will be the grand bargain in the political economy of Indian reforms.

1.8

GROWTH,

PRIVATE AND PUBLIC

INVESTMENT

“The balance sheet syndrome with Indian characteristics” creates a web of difficult challenges that could hold back private investment. Private investment must remain the primary engine of long-run growth. But in the interim, to revive growth and to deepen physical connectivity, public investment, especially in the railways, will have an important role to play. Since the new government assumed office, a slew of economic reforms has led to a partial revival of

investor sentiment. Tentative signs that the worst is over are evident for example in data that shows that the rate of stalled projects has begun to decline and that the rate of their revival is inching up (Figure 1.14). But increasing capital flows are yet to translate into a durable pick-up of real investment, especially in the private sector. This owes to at least five interrelated factors that lead to what the Mid-Year Economic Analysis called the “balance sheet syndrome with Indian characteristics.” First, hobbled by weak profitability and weighed down by over-indebtedness, the Indian corporate sector is limited in its ability to invest going forward (the flow challenge). One key indicator of profitability—the interest cover ratio, which if less than one implies firms’ cash flows are not sufficient to pay their interest costs—has also worsened in recent years (Figure 1.15). Further, as the Figure 1.16 shows, the debt-equity ratios of the top 500 non-financial firms have been steadily increasing, and their level now is amongst the highest in the emerging market world. Second, weak institutions relating to bankruptcy means that the over-indebtedness problem cannot be easily resolved (the stock and ‘difficulty-ofexit’ challenge). This is reflected in the persistence of stalled projects which have been consistently around 7 to 8 percent of GDP in the last four years. Third, even if some of these problems were solved, the PPP model at least in infrastructure will need to be re-fashioned to become more viable going forward (the institutional challenge). Fourth, since a significant portion of infrastructure was financed by the banking system, especially the public sector banks, their balance sheets have deteriorated.19 For example, the sum of nonperforming and stressed assets has risen sharply, and for the PSBs they account for over 12 percent

Pradhan Mantri Jan-Dhan Yojana progress report (http://www.pmjdy.gov.in/account-statistics-country.aspx)

http://www.trai.gov.in/WriteReadData/WhatsNew/Documents/Presspercent20Release-TSD-Mar,14.pdf.

According to RBI’s Financial Stability Report, December 2014, the contribution of mining, iron and steel, textiles, aviation and other infrastructure to total advances stands at 28 percent whereas their contribution in stressed assets is 54 percent.

Economic Survey 2014-15

Source: CMIE.

of total assets (Figure 1.17). Uncertainty about accounting and valuation, and indeed the history of banking difficulties across time and space, counsel in favor of over- rather than underrecognizing the severity of the problem. When banks’ balance sheets are stressed they are less able to lend, leading to reduced credit for the private sector (the financing challenge).20 Finally, in a peculiarly Indian twist, this financing problem is aggravated by generalized risk-aversion (the challenge of inertial decision-making). For the public sector banks in particular, which are exposed to governmental accountability and oversight, lending in a situation of NPAs is not easy because of a generic problem of caution, afflicting bureaucratic decision-making. Actions being undertaken by the government to enhance the supply of critical inputs such as coal and gas, as well as regulatory reform, will alleviate some of these constraints, especially in the public sector where the data identify them as being regulatory in character (clearances and land acquisition). Steps are being taken to address the institutional problem, by creating a better framework for PPPs and for infrastructure 20

investment in general. The RBI is making efforts to get banks to recognize their bad loan problems, and address them. But the impact of these initiatives has so far been limited. The stock of stalled projects remains extraordinarily high; firm profitability, especially for firms working in the infrastructure sector, remains low. So, questions on the pace and strength of recovery of private sector investment remain open. If the weakness of private investment offers one negative or indirect rationale for increased public investment, there are also more affirmative rationales. India’s recent PPP experience has demonstrated that given weak institutions, the private sector taking on project implementation risks involves costs (delays in land acquisition, environmental clearances, and variability of input supplies, etc.). In some sectors, the public sector may be better placed to absorb some of these risks. Further, there continue to remain areas of infrastructure – rural roads and railways that provide basic physical connectivity- in which private investment will be under-supplied. One irony is that while financial and digital connectivity are surging ahead, basic physical connectivity appears to lag behind.

Suggestions on how capital markets can play a greater role in infrastructure financing are elaborated in last year’s Economic Survey.

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

Source: Credit Suisse (sample of 3,700 listed companies).

Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan.

Therefore, as emphasized in the Mid Year Economic Analysis 2014-15 it seems imperative to consider the case for reviving targeted public investment as an engine of growth in the short run not to substitute for private investment but to complement it and indeed to crowd it in. The two challenges of raising public investment relate to financing and capacity. Financing issues were addressed in section 1.6. Public sector implementation capacity in India is variable. But the analysis in chapter 6 of this volume suggests that the Indian Railways could be the next locomotive of growth. Greater public investment

in the railways would boost aggregate growth and the competitiveness of Indian manufacturing substantially. In part, these large gains derive from the current massive under-investment in the railways. For example, China and India had similar network capacities in until the mid-1990s but because it invested eleven times as much as India in per-capita terms, Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capacity and efficiency have surged (Figure 1.18). In contrast, stagnant investment has led to congestion, strained capacity, poor services, weak financial health, and deteriorating competitiveness of logistics-intensive sectors, typically manufacturing. Congestion has

Economic Survey 2014-15

Source: RBI.

Source: World Bank.

effectively led to the railways ceding a significant share in freight traffic to the roads sector. This is not a welcome development since rail transport is typically more cost and energy efficient. The profits generated by freight services have cross-subsidised passengers services and Indian freight rates (PPP adjusted) remain among the highest in the world. What the previous NDA government did for roads, the present government could do for the railways,

strengthening the physical connectivity of the Indian population, with enormous benefits in terms of higher standards of living, greater opportunities, and increased potential for human fulfillment.

1.9 THE BANKING CHALLENGE Banking is hobbled by policy, which creates double financial repression, and by structural factors, which impede competition. The

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

solution lies in the 4 Ds of deregulation (addressing the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) and priority sector lending (PSL)), differentiation (within the public sector banks in relation to recapitalisation, shrinking balance sheets, and ownership), diversification (of source of funding within and outside banking), and disinterring (by improving exit mechanisms). Discussions of banking in India have recently focused on the problem of stressed and restructured assets, the challenges in acquiring the resources to meet the looming Basel III requirements on capital adequacy, including the respective contributions of the government and markets, and the need for governance reform reflected in the 2013 Nayak Committee Report. Stepping back from these proximate issues allows a deeper analytical diagnosis of the problems of Indian banking which in turn provide the basis for more calibrated solutions. A first question that arises is whether India is creditaddled and overbanked.

One way to assess this is to see whether Indian banks were unusually imprudent in the boom phase.21 Figure 1.19 plots the domestic credit to GDP of a number of countries, as defined by the World Bank, during their period of rapid growth (these periods vary across countries) since the year of â&#x20AC;&#x153;takeoffâ&#x20AC;?. It shows that while the boom years of the last decade both spawned and were fed by a credit boom, originating in the public sector banks, irrationally exuberant behaviour was not out of line with similar experiences in other countries. Indian credit grew no more rapidly than elsewhere. For example, the Japanese and Chinese financial systems lent much more during their takeoff years. On the question of India being over-banked, we assess the share of banks in total credit for a crosssection of countries (Figure 1.20). The figure plots the ratio of banking credit to total credit in the economy less the government, which includes firms and household22, against the level of development, as measured by the log of GDP per capita in PPP

Source: World Bank. Notes: Years of takeoff- Brazil, Japan and Korea: 1961, China: 1978, India: 1979. 21 In Chapter 5 of this volume, we also test for how credit-addled India is based on other cross-sectional and timeseries comparisons. 22 As defined by the Bank for International Settlements, this includes credit to non-financial corporations (both private-owned and public-owned), households and non-profit institutions serving households as defined in the System of National Accounts 2008.

Economic Survey 2014-15

terms. The chart shows that India is not an outlier: that is for its level of development, the share of bank credit is neither unusually high nor low. Of course, if India grows at 8 percent a year for the next twenty years, a rapid shift in the composition of India’s financial sector away from banking may be necessary and desirable. Where then does the problem lie? The problems in the Indian banking system lie elsewhere and fall into two categories: policy and structure. The policy challenge relates to financial repression. The Indian banking system is afflicted by what might be called “double financial repression” which reduces returns to savers and banks, and misallocates capital to investors. Financial repression on the asset side of the balance sheet is created by the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) requirement that forces banks to hold government securities, and priority sector lending (PSL) that forces resource deployment in less-than-fully efficient ways23. Financial repression on the liability side has arisen from high inflation since 2007, leading

Source: Bank for International Settlements. 23

More details can be found in Chapter 5 of this volume.

to negative real interest rates, and a sharp reduction in household savings. As India exits from liabilityside repression with declining inflation, the time may be appropriate for addressing its asset-side counterparts. The structural problems relate to competition and ownership. First, there appears to be a lack of competition, reflected in the private sector banks’ inability to increase their presence. Indeed, one of the paradoxes of recent banking history is that the share of the private sector in overall banking aggregates barely increased at a time when the country witnessed its most rapid growth and one that was fuelled by the private sector. It was an anomalous case of private sector growth without private sector bank financing. Even allowing for the over- exuberance of the PSBs that financed this investment-led growth phase, the reticence of the private sector was striking (see Figure 1.21). Second, there is wide variation in the performance of the public sector banks measured in terms of prudence and profitability. Figure 1.22 plots the

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

Source: RBI.

Leverage Ratio and Return on Assets of public sector and private sector banks24. In addition it plots (as dotted lines) the variation within the public sector banks. In terms of actual numbers of leverage ratios, taking a three year average, the most prudent PSB was 1.7 times more capitalised than the most imprudent one. Despite the significant variation in public sector banks, it is also striking that on these measures, the best public sector banks perform well below private sector banks on average, recognising of course that PSBs may be burdened with greater social obligations that places them at a competitive disadvantage relative to the private banks. The subtler problem with public sector ownership is that exit from debt difficulties is proving very difficult. If that is so, there is extra reason to worry about public sector ownership ex-ante. The diagnosis above (and in chapter 5) leads to a four-fold policy response captured in 4 Ds: deregulate, differentiate, diversify, and disinter.

As the banking sector exits the financial repression on the liability side, aided by the fall in inflation, this is a good opportunity to consider relaxing the asset side repression. Easing SLR requirements will provide liquidity to the banks, depth to the government bond market, and encourage the development of the corporate bond market. Second, PSL norms too can be re-assessed. There are two options: one is indirect reform bringing more sectors into the ambit of PSL, until in the limit every sector is a priority sector; and the other is to redefine the norms to slowly make PSL more targeted, smaller, and need-driven. There must be differentiation between the PSBs and the recent approach to recapitalization adopted by the government is a step in the right direction. One size fits all approaches such as governance reform cannot be the most appropriate. Differentiation will allow a full menu of options such as selective recapitalization, diluted government ownership, and exit.

Leverage ratio is defined by the RBI as ratio of total assets to total capital (Tier 1 + Tier 2), the international definition, for example as laid out by the Bank for International Settlements, is typically the inverse. For the purpose of this volume we will use the international definition. Return on Assets (ROA) is a profitability ratio which indicates the net profit (net income) generated on total assets. It is computed by dividing net income by average total assets. 24

Economic Survey 2014-15

Source: RBI.

‘‘Diversify’’ implies that there must be greater competition within the banking system, including liberal licensing of more banks and different types of banks. There must also be greater competition from capital, especially bond, markets. Facilitating that will require exiting from asset side repression, namely the phasing down of the SLRs which would also help develop bond markets. ‘‘Disinter’’ implies that exit procedures must become more efficient. Debt Recovery Tribunals are over-burdened and under-resourced, leading to tardy resolution. The ownership structure and efficacy of Asset Restructuring Companies, in which banks themselves have significant stakes of banks, creates misaligned incentives. The Securitization and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest (SARFAESI) Act seems to be implemented most vigorously against the smallest borrowers and MSEs. Mechanisms for distributing pain efficiently amongst promoters, creditors, consumers, and taxpayers without creating moral hazard incentives for imprudent lending by banks are necessary. One important lesson is that the clean-up is as important as the run-up. 25

1.10 MANUFACTURING, SERVICES AND THE CHALLENGES OF ‘‘MAKE IN INDIA’’ Transformational sectors could be in registered manufacturing or services. Raising economy-wide skills must complement efforts to improve the conditions for manufacturing. The Prime Minister has made the revival of Indian manufacturing a top priority, reflected in his “Make in India” campaign and slogan. The objective is as laudable as the challenges it faces are daunting because Indian manufacturing has been stagnant at low levels, especially when compared with the East Asian successes25. Two questions arise. Is manufacturing the sector that Make in India focus on? What instruments should be deployed to realize the objective? Consider each in turn. New academic work suggests that there is a complementary way of thinking about transformational sectors in and for development. Growth theory suggests that transformational sectors should be assessed in light of their underlying characteristics and not just in terms of

The recent upward revisions to the level of manufacturing share in GDP are to some extent statistical rather than “real”. Moreover, even the revised data do not change the pattern of trend decline in this share. What has happened is the statistical opposite of the technological change which Jagdish Bhagwati [“Splintering and Disembodiment of Services and Developing Nations”, 1984, The World Economy, 7(2)] referred to as ‘splintering’ services from goods.

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

possesses some of the critical prerequisites such as high productivity and rapid growth in productivity. Unregistered manufacturing cannot be a transformational sector. Thus, efforts to encourage formalization will be critical.

the traditional manufacturing-services distinction (Table 1.3). Five such important characteristics can be identified. 

High levels of productivity, so that incomes can increase;



Rapid rate of growth of productivity in relation to the world frontier (international convergence) as well as rapid growth toward the national frontier (domestic convergence);



A strong ability of the dynamic sector to attract resources, thereby spreading the benefits to the rest of the economy;

The Indian evidence is that some sub-sectors in services such as telecommunications and finance are like registered manufacturing in being highly productive and dynamic. However, these sectors, like registered manufacturing, have not been able to attract large amounts of unskilled labour, limiting the benefits of the underlying dynamism. In other words, the dynamic sectors have tended to be skillintensive sectors in which India does not necessarily have comparative advantage. An exception is construction which is unskilled labourintensive and which has been fairly dynamic. Construction, however, is not a tradable sector, which also limits its potential as a transformational sector.

 Alignment of the dynamic sector with a country’s underlying resources, which typically tends to be unskilled labor; and  Tradability of the sector, because that determines whether the sector can expand without running into demand constraints, a feature that is important for a large country like India.

One policy conclusion that follows is that efforts to improve the conditions for labor-intensive manufacturing need to be complemented with rapid skill upgradation because skill-intensive sectors are dynamic sectors in India and sustaining their dynamism will require that the supply of skills keeps

In India, it is important to remember that when thinking about manufacturing as a transformational sector it is registered or formal manufacturing that

Table 1.3: Transformational Properties of Different Sectors Feature

Registered Manufacturing

Trade, Hotels, Transport, and Storage and Restaurants Communications

Financial Real Estate ConstrucServices and and Business tion Insurance Services, etc.

1. High productivity

Yes

Not really

Yes

2A. Unconditional domestic convergence

Yes

2B. Unconditional international convergence

Yes, but not for India

Yes

3. Converging sector absorbs resources

Somewhat

Yes

4. Skill profile matches Not really underlying endowments

Somewhat

Yes

5. Tradable and/ or replicable

Somewhat

Yes

Somewhat

Yes

Economic Survey 2014-15

pace with the rising demand for these skills; otherwise even these sectors could become uncompetitive. In other words, the Prime Minister’s Skill India objective should be accorded high priority along with, and indeed in order to realize, ‘‘Make in India’’. We turn next to the means. What policy interventions can help realize ‘‘Make in India’’ They can be placed in three categories in decreasing order of effectiveness and increasing order of controversy. The uncontroversial responses consist of improving the business environment by making regulations and taxes less onerous, building infrastructure, reforming labour laws, and enabling connectivity– all these would reduce the cost of doing business, increase profitability, and hence encourage the private sector, both domestic and foreign, to increase investments. Indeed, these measures would not just benefit manufacturing, they would benefit all sectors. The next set of responses—what might loosely be called “industrial policy”— would target the promotion of manufacturing in particular: providing subsidies, lowering the cost of capital, and creating special economic zones (SEZs) for some or all manufacturing activity in particular. The final set of responses—what might be called “protectionist”—would focus on the tradability of manufacturing, and hence consist of actions to: shield domestic manufacturing from foreign competition via tariffs and local content requirements; and provide export-related incentives. The effectiveness of these actions is open to debate given past experience. Moreover, they would run up against India’s external obligations under the WTO and other free trade agreements, and also undermine India’s openness credentials. The risk to avoid is undue reliance on the latter two, especially if it leads to detailed microintervention, involving sector-specific tariff and tax 26

changes and sector-specific grant of incentives. In this context, an intervention that can be immediately implemented, that can have large impacts, and that is win-win, is to eliminate the current negative protection facing Indian manufacturing (Box 1.4)

1.11 THE TRADE CHALLENGE Trade outcomes have been stagnating. The trading environment is becoming more challenging as the buoyancy of Indian exports has declined with respect to world growth, and as the negotiation of megaregional trading arrangements threatens to exclude India. Rapid and sustained rates of growth are associated with rapid rates of export growth. Few countries, if any, have grown at 7 plus growth rates on the basis of the domestic market alone. Indeed, as Ostry et. al. (2006)26 show, sustained growth spurts are almost always associated with an average rise in manufacturing exports to GDP ratios over their growth episodes of about 36 percentage points. India should not expect to be any different. If that is so, what is the prognosis for India? During India’s rapid growth phase between 2002-03 and 2008-09, the ratio of exports of services to GDP increased dramatically, from 4.0 percent to nearly 9.0 percent. In contrast, manufacturing exports were less buoyant (Figure 1.23). After the global financial crisis, however, the roles seem to have been reversed; manufacturing exports seem to have done better than services exports. More worrisome, however, both have slowed down in the last five years which does not augur well. A similar pattern emerges when we compute the buoyancy of Indian export growth (of goods and services) with respect to GDP growth of the world (Figure 1.24). In the early 2000s, this buoyancy was high and rising, particularly for services. Every 1 percent growth in world GDP was associated with a 3 percent growth in Indian exports of services in 2001, which rose to over 8 percent a few years

Johnson, Simon, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Arvind Subramanian, “The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa; Benchmarking the Constraints,” 2007, IMF Working Papers 07/52, International Monetary Fund.

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

Box 1.4: ‘‘Make in India’’ Not by Protecting but by Eliminating Negative Protectionism Eliminating all the exemptions for the countervailing duty (CVD) will eliminate the negative protection facing Indian manufacturers, and help the ‘‘Make in India’’ initiative, without violating India’s international obligations. There is one response that would help manufacturing and the “Make in India” initiative without being as difficult as improving the business environment, and as controversial and expensive as the industrial policy or protectionist response: eliminating the exemptions in the countervailing duties (CVD) and special additional duties (SAD) levied on imports. Why will this help? It is a well-accepted proposition in tax theory that achieving neutrality of incentives between domestic production and imports requires that all domestic indirect taxes also be levied on imports. So, if a country levies a sales tax, value added tax (VAT), or excise or GST on domestic sales/production, it should also be levied on imports. India’s current indirect tax system, however, acts sometimes to favour foreign production over domestically produced goods. The CVD, which is levied to offset the excise duty imposed on domestic producers, is not applied on a whole range of imports. These exemptions can be quantified. The effective rate of excise on domestically-produced non-oil goods is about 9 percent. The effective collection rate of CVDs should theoretically be the same but is in actual fact only about 6 percent. The difference not only represents the fiscal cost to the government of ` 40,000 crore, it also represents the negative protection in favour of foreign produced goods over domestically produced goods. Three important nuances need to be noted here. First, it might seem that CVD exemptions on inputs help manufacturers by reducing their input costs. But under the current system and in future when the GST is implemented, the CVD on inputs can always be reclaimed as an input tax credit. So, CVD exemptions do not provide additional relief. The second relates to a situation when both the excise and CVD are both exempted. This may seem apparently neutral between domestic production and imports but it is not. The imported good enters the market without the CVD imposed on it; and, because it is zero-rated in the source country, is not burdened by any embedded input taxes on it. The corresponding domestic good does not face the excise duty, but since it has been exempted, the input tax credit cannot be claimed. The domestic good is thus less competitive relative to the foreign good because it bears input taxes which the foreign good does not. Third, the rationale advanced for exempting many imported goods from CVD is that there is no competing domestic production. This argument is faulty because the absence of competing domestic production may itself be the result of not having the neutrality of incentives that the CVD creates. Domestic producers may have chosen not to enter because the playing field is not level. Indian tax policy is therefore effectively penalising domestic manufacturing. How can this anomaly be remedied? Simply by enacting a well-designed GST preferably with one, internationally competitive rate and with narrowly defined exemptions. In one stroke the penalties on domestic manufacturing would be eliminated because the GST (central and state) would automatically be levied on imports to ensure neutrality of incentives. In effect, India would be promoting domestic manufacturing without becoming protectionist and without violating any of its international trade obligations under the World Trade Organisation (WTO) or under Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). In the meantime, the effect of the GST can be partially simulated by eliminating the exemptions applied to CVD. The default situation should be an exemptions-free regime. If particular sectors seek relief from the CVD, they should be required to make their case at the highest political level. In a sense, India finds itself in a de-facto state of negative protection on the one hand, and calls for higher tariffs on the other. It is win-win to resist these calls that would burnish India’s openness credentials and instead eliminate unnecessary and costly negative protection.

later, stabilizing at around 5 just prior to the financial crisis. Thereafter, it has been in steady decline and the most recent estimate suggests a buoyancy of 27

one. The pattern is broadly similar for manufactured exports, although it was less buoyant than services in the boom phase.27

The declining elasticity of global trade to global growth is documented in Constantinescu, C., A Mattoo and M Ruta (2015) “The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, WPS-7158.

Economic Survey 2014-15

Source:

IMF, WEO, DGCI&S and RBI.

Note:

The buoyancy calculations are based on a three-year moving average. It excludes the year 2009-10 because a dramatic decline in exports renders the buoyancy calculation difficult to interpret.

Combining the two charts, the message for India seems to be that the external trading environment is encountering two sets of headwinds: first, a slowdown in world growth which will reduce Indian exports; and second, for any given world

growth, export growth will be even lower because of trade’s declining responsiveness. And, India must be especially watchful about services exports—an engine of growth—which have slowed markedly. These headwinds are, of

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

course, in addition to the domestic factors that are contributing to the slowdown of export growth: weak infrastructure and challenging labour laws in the case of manufacturing, and rising wages and scarcity of skilled labour in the case of services. In addition to the deteriorating external environment for trade, India has to contend with a rapidly changing policy environment. As the new government prepares to re-invigorate the Indian economy, it will encounter that the international trade landscape is substantially changing in three significant ways. First, the phenomenon of global value-added chains based on fragmenting/unbundling successive stages of production and locating them at lowest cost destinations have become a defining, even if declining, feature of trade, especially in Asia. India has been slowly integrating into these chains, but at lower levels than most other dynamic Asian economies. Second, negotiations on mega-regional agreements have been seriously initiated. Trade integration within Asia and between Asia and the United States will advance significantly if and when the TransPacific Partnership (TPP) is negotiated and ratified. Similarly, the markets of North American and Europe will be brought together if and when the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) are concluded. Together, these two agreements will cover about half of world trade. And third, China, which until recently has been comfortable with the status quo, may be on the verge of changing from passive bystander to active participant, wanting to engage in, and possibly shape, the formation of the next round of trade rules. This change is a reaction to the domestic imperatives of re-balancing the economy, which will require major liberalization of the Chinese economy; and to the fear of being excluded by American trade initiatives, including TPP and TTIP. China is also at the center of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which includes India, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, as well as Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

How should India react to this global shift in trade realities? It has two choices: measured integration (the status quo and/or RCEP) or ambitious integration (via the TPP). Measured integration would involve a slow but steady pace of domestic reform dictated by India’s political constraints and capacity which could only sustain regional agreements of the kind India has negotiated with Asian partners: relatively few obligations, generous exemptions and exceptions, and lenient timetables for implementation. The risk in the status quo scenario is one of India being excluded from large integrated markets with reduced trading possibilities, and because of the nature of global value chains in which trade, investment, and intellectual property are enmeshed, also reduced investment possibilities. (Joining RCEP might help but not fully since the expectation is that the overall standards in RCEP will be weaker than under the TPP and TTIP). There will not only be the standard diversion emanating from Indian exporters having to face higher tariffs in large, growing markets, but increasingly they will have to contend with different and higher product and sustainable development standards, placing them at an even greater disadvantage. In the context of the slowdown in both world growth and India’s export buoyancy, any possible exclusion from the mega-regionals would be additionally worrisome. Ambitious integration would essentially mean India joining, or rather seeking to join, at some future date the TPP. There is considerable uncertainty surrounding this option because the timing and terms of the TPP are still unclear. What is clear, however, is that the substantive liberalization obligations under any future TPP will be greater than those under India’s current FTAs and probably ahead of India’s planned pace of domestic reform. A significant upgrading of Indian trade capability will be necessary for India to be able to join these mega-regionals should it chose to do so.

Economic Survey 2014-15

1.12 CLIMATE CHANGE India has taken a number of green actions, including imposing significantly higher taxation of petroleum products and reenergizing the renewable energy sector. It can make a positive contribution to the forthcoming Paris negotiations on climate change. Later this year, Heads of States from around the world will meet in Paris to conclude negotiations on a new agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by December 2015. The expectation is one of action by all countries on climate change from 2020 onwards in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its recent report â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), published in 2014 â&#x20AC;&#x201D; has observed that, there has been an increasing trend in the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) since the advent of the industrial revolution, with about half of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during this period occurring in the last 40 years. The period 1983-2012 is likely to have been the warmest 30 year period of the last 1400 years. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes contributed

Source: World Bank estimates.

a major portion of total GHG emissions during the period 1970 - 2010. The change in the climate system is likely to have adverse impacts on livelihoods, cropping pattern and food security. Extreme heat events are likely to be longer and more intense in addition to changes in the precipitation patterns. Adverse impacts are likely to be felt more acutely in tropical zone countries such as India, and within India, the poor will be more exposed. India can make a significant contribution in addressing climate change. Unlike some countries, it has taken substantial actions to eliminate petroleum subsidies and gone beyond to impose substantial taxes on these products. These actions have taken India from a carbon subsidization regime to one of significant carbon taxation regimeâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;from a negative price to an implicit positive price on carbon emissions. And the shift has been large. For example, the effect of the recent actions since October 2014 has been a de facto carbon tax equivalent to US$ 60 per ton of CO2 in the case of (unbranded) petrol and nearly US$ 42 per ton in the case of (unbranded) diesel. In absolute terms, the implicit carbon tax (US$ 140 for petrol and US$ 64 for diesel) is substantially above what is now considered a reasonable initial tax on CO2 emissions of US$ 25 per ton (Figure 1.25). India now ranks quite

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

high in terms of taxation of petroleum products. The recent actions alone have significantly burnished India’s green and climate change credentials. In addition India has increased the coal cess from Rs. 50 per ton to Rs.100 per ton, which is equivalent to a carbon tax of about US$ 1 per ton. The health cost of coal for power generation in India is estimated to range from US$ 3.41 per ton to US$ 51.11 per ton depending on the value of statistical life. The average number is US$ 27.26 per ton. The health costs of emissions from coal fired power plants include costs associated with premature cardiopulmonary deaths and illnesses from the chronic effects of long-term exposure and the acute effects of short-term exposure. Higher taxes on coal to offset these purely domestic externalities would need to be balanced against their implications for power pricing and hence access to energy for the 300 million households still without electricity. This trade-off suggests that alternative paths to energy access need to be considered, including renewables. The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission launched in January 2010 seeks to establish India as a global leader in solar energy by creating policy conditions for its diffusion across the country. The Twelfth Plan financial outlay for this scheme is ` 8795 crore. The Solar Mission is now being scaled up five-fold from 20,000 megawatts to 100,000 megawatts. This in effect requires an additional investment of 100 billion US dollars. The aim of this initiative is primarily to provide energy access to nearly 300 million households. The collateral benefit would be lower annual emissions of CO2 by about 165 million tonnes. Reconciling India’s climate change goals and energy imperatives will require a major technological breakthrough to make the burning of coal cleaner and greener. If India is to focus on becoming green, correspondingly the world must devote more resources into coal technology research. That means greater international public investment in R&D for improving coal technologies. And if the private sector is to be

incentivized to undertake this research, high and rising carbon pricing by advanced countries must become an immediate priority. (An elaboration of the contours of a new type of global deal and the required contribution from advanced and emerging economies can be found in Aaditya Mattoo and Arvind Subramanian’s Greenprint: A New Approach to Cooperation on Climate Change).

1.13 EMPOWERING WOMEN: UNLEASHING NAARI SHAKTI Improving the status and treatment of women is a major development challenge. In the short run, family planning targets and the provision of incentives are leading to an undesirable focus on female sterilization. On January 22nd, 2015, the Prime Minister launched the Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao campaign from Panipat in Haryana. The campaign is aimed at increasing the very low value that Indian society puts on a girl child. But India is somewhat of a paradox on gender issues. On the one hand, India has had prominent and visible women leaders such as a female President, a female Prime Minister, several female heads of large political parties at the national and state levels, several Cabinet rank ministers, and several captains of industry (particularly in the banking sector). And yet, according to the UNDP’s latest Human Development Report (2014), India ranks 135 out of 187 countries on the Human Development Index (HDI) and 127 out of 152 countries on the Gender Inequality Index (GII). The GII is a composite measure reflecting inequality in achievement between women and men in three dimensions: reproductive health, empowerment and the labor market. This puts India in the bottom 25 percent of all countries on the HDI and even lower—in the bottom 20 percent on the GII. Furthermore, the child sex ratio—the number of girls to boys at birth—is relatively low in the world, and moreover declined from 927 girls per 1000 boys in 2001 to 918 girls for every 1000 boys in 2011 (Figure 1.26). China is one of the few countries with a more adverse child sex ratio.

Economic Survey 2014-15

Source: Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2011, UNESCAP.

But the November 2014 tragedy in Bilaspur, Chhattisgarh in which 13 young women with very young children lost their lives, and forty-five more were taken critically ill, highlights a specific and serious problem that needs urgent attention: female sterilization. The third round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3, 2005-06) reports that even in developed states like Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra female sterilisation accounts for 90 per cent and 76 percent of all contraceptive use, respectively; the median age at sterilisation for women was reported at 24.9 years in both Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. There appears to be renewed focus on controlling the rise in population, directed in particular at women, and through means that blur the lines between persuasion and coercion. Persuasion takes the form of incentives offered not just to poor couples for sterilisation but rewards to local bodies for their performance, euphemistically described as â&#x20AC;&#x153;promotional and motivationalâ&#x20AC;? measures, resulting in the organization of mass camps for female sterilization. Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population policy seems

focused on extending family planning measures, mainly contraceptives for women, leaving them with little reproductive choice or autonomy. Of the total sterilisation operations performed in 2012-13, tubectomy/laproscopic sterilisations account for 97.4 percent, while male vasectomy operations, considered less complicated risky, account for only 2.5 percent (Figure 1.27). Government expenditures are also skewed toward female sterilization. Out of the budget of Rs 397 crores for family planning for 2013-14, 85 percent (` 338 crore) is spent on female sterilization. By contrast 1.5 percent of the total budget is spent on spacing methods and 13 percent on infrastructure and communications. The negative fallouts of pursuing a population policy that largely focuses on birth control also contributes to declining child sex ratios: if every family is to have fewer children, there is a greater anxiety that at least one of them should be male. In this instance, there may be a case for the government to undo as much as to do for example,

Economic Outlook, Prospects, and Policy Challenges

Source: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Government of India.

by not setting targets (ELAs or expected levels of achievement), withdrawing incentives for female sterilization and for mass camps. In addition, the government could: (i) Review the family planning program in India and reorient it such that it is aligned with reproductive health rights of women, and needs of Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population. (ii) Increase budgets for quality services, static family planning clinics and quality monitoring and supervision. (iii) Address youth needs, induct more counsellors for sexual health, more youth-friendly services, and adequate supply of spacing methods.

cause of cooperative federalism that the new government has enthusiastically embraced. The Fourteenth Finance Commission (FFC) has recently submitted its recommendations for devolution of taxes and other transfers from the center to the states, and between the states, for the period 2015-16 to 2020-21. They are likely to have major implications for Center-State relations, for budgeting by, and the fiscal situation of, the Center and the States. Some of the recommendations are as follows.

1.14 COOPERATIVE FEDERALISM AND THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE FOURTEENTH FINANCE COMMISSION (FFC)

The FFC has radically enhanced the share of the states in the central divisible pool of taxes from the current 32 percent to 42 per cent which is the biggest ever increase in vertical tax devolution. The last two Finance Commissions viz. Twelfth (200510) and Thirteenth (2010-15) had recommended a state share of 30.5 per cent (increase of 1 percent) and 32 per cent (increase of 1.5 percent), respectively in the central divisible pool.

Far-reaching changes for sharing of revenues between the Center and the States, on the one hand, and between the States, on the other, have been recommended by the FFC. Successful implementation will advance the

The FFC has also proposed a new horizontal formula for the distribution of the divisible pool among the States. There are changes both in the variables included/excluded as well as the weights assigned to them. Relative to the Thirteenth Finance

Economic Survey 2014-15

Commission, the FFC has incorporated two new variables: 2011 population and forest cover; and excluded the variable relating to fiscal discipline (see Chapter 10 for greater details.) Implementing these recommendations will move the country toward greater fiscal federalism, conferring more fiscal autonomy on the States. For example, based on assumptions about nominal GDP growth and tax buoyancy and the policy measures that are contemplated for 2015-16, it is estimated that the additional revenue for the states could be as much as ` 2 lakh crores relative to 2014-15. Of this, a substantial portion represents the difference that is purely due to the change in the Statesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; share in the divisible pool.

Preliminary estimates shown in Table 1.4 suggest that all States stand to gain from FFC transfers in absolute terms. However, to assess the distributional effects, the increases should be scaled by population, Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) at current market price, or by Statesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; own tax revenue receipts. These are shown in columns 4-6 of Table 1.4. The biggest gainers when scaled by any of these indicators tend to be the Special Category States (SCS, mostly those in the NorthEast) and by orders of magnitude. The major gainers in per capita terms turn out to be Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Sikkim for the SCS states and Kerala, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh for other states (GCS or General Category States).

Table 1.4 : Additional FFC Transfers (in 2015-16 over 2014-15) State 1 Andhra Pradesh (united) Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal Total

Category

Benefits from FFC (in ` crore)

Benefits Per capita (`)

Benefits as % of OTR

Benefits as % of NSDP

GCS SCS SCS GCS GCS GCS GCS GCS SCS SCS GCS GCS GCS GCS GCS SCS SCS SCS SCS GCS GCS GCS SCS GCS SCS GCS SCS GCS

14620 5585 7295 13279 7227 1107 4551 1592 8533 13970 6196 8401 9508 15072 10682 2130 1381 2519 2694 6752 3457 6479 1010 5973 1560 24608 1303 16714

1728 40359 2338 1276 2829 7591 753 628 12430 11140 1878 1375 2846 2075 951 8286 4655 22962 13616 1609 1246 945 16543 828 4247 1232 1292 1831

27.4 1758.1 95.5 105.3 67.5 44.1 10.3 7.8 207.7 294.4 89.1 18.1 37.0 55.9 12.2 578.7 198.0 1410.1 886.5 50.2 18.3 25.5 343.7 10.0 181.8 46.8 23.2 67.0

2.2 51.0 5.8 4.9 5.2 3.0 0.8 0.5 14.6 22.4 4.8 1.8 3.1 4.5 0.9 19.5 8.6 33.3 18.7 3.2 1.4 1.6 10.7 0.9 6.9 3.5 1.4 3.0

204198

1715

Source : Ministry of Finance. GCS- General Category States; SCS-Special Category States

Pradesh, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh while for SCS it is Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Assam. A better measure of impact is benefit per capita. The major gainers in per capita terms turn out to be Kerala, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh for GCS and Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Sikkim for SCS. The FFC recommendations are expected to add substantial spending capacity to states’ budgets. The additional spending capacity can better be measure by scaling the benefits either by NSDP at current market price or by states’ own tax revenue. In terms of the impact based on

NSDP, the benefits of FFC transfers are highest for Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Jharkhand among the GCS and for states like Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Jammu & Kashmir among the SCS. While in terms of states’ own tax revenues, the largest gains accrue to GCS of Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh and SCS of Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Nagaland. The FFC transfers have more favorable impact on the states (only among the GCS) which are relatively less developed which is an indication that the FFC transfers are progressive i.e. states with

From Carbon Subsidy to Carbon Tax: Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Green Actions

133

Correlation between the two is -0.72.

lower per capita NSDP receive on average much larger transfers per capita (Figure 10.1). The correlation between per capita NSDP and FFC is transfer per capita is -0.72. This indicates that the FFC recommendations do go in the direction of equalizing the income and fiscal disparities between

Correlation between the two is -0.84.

the major states. However, FFC transfers are less progressive compared to the transfers of Thirteenth Finance Commission (TFC). The correlation coefficient between the NSDP per capita and TFC transfers per capita (average of 2011-12, 201213 and 2013-14) per capita is-0.84 (Figure 10.2).

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A final interesting finding relates to the decomposition of the resource transfers through tax devolution due to the increase in the divisible pool per se and due to the change in the horizontal devolution formula itself. The significant impact due to increase in the divisible pool is on states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh (United) while states like Arunachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Jharkhand are the major gainers due to a change in the horizontal devolution formula which now gives greater weight to a stateâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s forest cover (Table 10.3).

10.4 BALANCING FISCAL AUTONOMY AND FISCAL SPACE The spirit behind the FFC recommendations is to increase the automatic transfers to the states to give them more fiscal autonomy and this is ensured by increasing share of states from 32 to 42 per cent of divisible pool. Assuming the recommendations of FFC were to be implemented as it is, there is concern that fiscal space or fiscal consolidation path of the Centre would be adversely affected. However, to ensure that the Centreâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s fiscal space is secured, the suggestion is

Table 10.3 : Decomposition of FFC Transfers to States State

Andhra Pradesh (United) Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal

State share in 14thFC

State share in 13thFC

0.06742 0.0137 0.03311 0.09665 0.0308 0.00378 0.03084 0.01084 0.00713 0.01854 0.03139 0.04713 0.025 0.07548 0.05521 0.00617 0.00642 0.0046 0.00498 0.04642 0.01577 0.05495 0.00367 0.04023 0.00642 0.17959 0.01052 0.07324

0.06937 0.00328 0.03628 0.10917 0.0247 0.00266 0.03041 0.01048 0.00781 0.01551 0.02802 0.04328 0.02341 0.0712 0.05199 0.00451 0.00408 0.00269 0.00314 0.04779 0.01389 0.05853 0.00239 0.04969 0.00511 0.19677 0.0112 0.07264

Source : Ministry of Finance and Reports of Finance Commissions.

Decomposition of FFC Transfers Due to change in Due to change Divisible pool in Share 107.5 24.9 129.0 142.8 64.9 53.9 96.7 92.3 128.9 69.5 78.2 82.7 86.1 87.4 87.1 56.6 47.7 43.7 47.3 107.7 76.2 118.4 49.0 207.5 64.1 129.0 118.2 98.0

-7.5 75.1 -29.0 -42.8 35.1 46.1 3.3 7.7 -28.9 30.5 21.8 17.3 13.9 12.6 12.9 43.4 52.3 56.3 52.7 -7.7 23.8 -18.4 51.0 -107.5 35.9 -29.0 -18.2 2.0

From Carbon Subsidy to Carbon Tax: India’s Green Actions

that there will be commensurate reductions in the Central Assistance to States (CAS) known as “plan transfers.” One immediately noteworthy fact is that CAS transfers per capita are only mildly progressive (Figure 10.3): the correlation coefficient with state per capita NSDP is -0.29. This is a consequence of plan transfers moving away from being Gadgil formula-based to being more discretionary in the last few years. Greater central discretion evidently reduced progressivity. A corollary is that implementing the FFC recommendations would increase progressivity because progressive tax transfers would increase and discretionary and less progressive plan transfers would decline. Balancing the enhanced fiscal autonomy of the states with preserving fiscal space of the Centre entails reduction in CAS transfers. But there are many ways of doing the latter from the totally discretionary to formula-based. Within the latter too there are many options: (i) proportionate cuts

135

across the states in CAS transfers; (ii) ensuring the implementation of legally-backed/mandated schemes6 and then proportionately cutting the residual; (iii) equal per capita distribution of CAS transfers; (iv) implementing the legally-backed schemes and then distributing the remaining amount in line with the FFC formula for tax devolution; and many more. For simplicity, here we discuss options (i) only. We calculate the net surplus to the states, i.e. the difference between increase in FFC transfers less the reduction in CAS transfers and display the results in Table 10.4. Table-10.4 is constructed to compare state-wise the increased benefits from FFC and the CAS transfers in 2015-16. The surplus/shortfall7 shown in column 3 has been obtained by taking the difference between total benefit from FFC and reduction in CAS in 2015-16 over 201415. This difference is also shown in columns 4, 5 and 6 in terms of population, NSDP and own tax revenues respectively. Essentially, the

Correlation between the two is -0.29. 6 7

Legally backed schemes are SSA, MGNREGA, MPLAD, SPA to EAP, PMGSY and others. The surplus and shortfall are based on certain assumptions regarding the estimation/projection of CAS allocations to states in 2014-15 and 2015-16. The calculation of surplus/shortfall may vary once the actual numbers of CAS allocation for 2014-15 and estimated CAS allocations to states are out.

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Table 10.4 : Total Surplus/shortfall after transfer under CAS but preserving the fiscal space for Center

State

CAS over and above legally backed schemes (in ` crore)

Andhra Pradesh(united) Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal TOTAL

surplus/short fall after transfer under CAS but preserving the fiscal space for centre Absolute Per capita % of NSDP % of OTR (` crore) (in `)

5062 2555 5860 6998 2673 180 4179 1509 3593 8185 2870 4873 2778 7959 5365 2029 1536 1157 2019 6826 1820 6618 1415 2376 2139 9110 3014 8386

10134 4572 4378 8783 5258 995 2454 714 6826 10679 4650 5300 7834 10389 7496 1250 661 1967 1839 3497 2478 2423 489 2644 458 18716 -48 11365

113081

138198

1198 33038 1403 844 2058 6820 406 282 9944 8515 1410 867 2345 1431 667 4861 2229 17925 9293 833 893 353 8006 366 1246 937 -48 1245

1.5 41.8 3.5 3.2 3.8 2.7 0.4 0.2 11.7 17.1 3.6 1.1 2.5 3.1 0.6 11.4 4.1 26.0 12.7 1.7 1.0 0.6 5.2 0.4 2.0 2.7 -0.1 2.0

19.0 1439.2 57.3 69.6 49.1 39.6 5.5 3.5 166.2 225.0 66.9 11.4 30.5 38.5 8.6 339.5 94.8 1100.7 605.0 26.0 13.2 9.5 166.3 4.4 53.3 35.6 -0.9 45.6

Source : Ministry of Finance.

numbers in these columns also answer the question of whether the states, if they wanted to, can maintain the same level of spending on the programs financed by the CAS especially the legally-backed schemes, and still have additional resources to finance their own new programs. If they do not want to accept Centrally Sponsored Schemes, all the increase in FFC transfers is new, unencumbered money.

All the GCS gain from FFC transfers net of CAS reduction. The top three gainers in absolute terms under GCSare Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh while for SCS it is Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh. The better way of measuring the surplus/ shortfall would be in per capita terms. The major gainers are Goa, Kerala and Chhattisgarh for GCS and Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Himachal Pradesh for SCS.

From Carbon Subsidy to Carbon Tax: India’s Green Actions

The surplus/shortfall as per cent of NSDP at current market price are shown in column 5 of table 10.4, the states which add up maximum fiscal resources are Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar among the GCS while among the SCS it is Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Jammu & Kashmir. The surplus is going to add significant amount to the states revenue. There are nine states among the GCS which are expected to get more than 25 per cent of their own tax revenue (column 6 of table 10.4)

10.5 CAVEATS AND CONCLUSION Some caveats or complications to this exercise must be noted. First, they are sensitive to the assumptions underlying GDP growth, revenue and expenditure estimations/projections for 2014-15 and 2015-16. Secondly, assumptions are also made about CAS amounts in 2014-15 and about reductions in CAS amounts in 2015-16. So, these must be treated as illustrative calculations. For example, another option would simply be to transfer those schemes that are on State list back to the states. Also, estimates have only been presented for the year 2015-16. Thereafter, additional factors such as GST implementation and the next Pay Commission awards will affect projections beyond the coming year.

137

With these caveats, the main conclusions are that the FFC has made far-reaching changes in tax devolution that will move the country toward greater fiscal federalism, conferring more fiscal autonomy on the states. This will be enhanced by the FFC-induced imperative of having to reduce the scale of other central transfers to the states. In other words, states will now have greater autonomy on the revenue and expenditure fronts. The numbers also suggest that this renewed impulse toward fiscal federalism need not be to the detriment of the center’s fiscal capacity. A collateral benefit of moving from CAS to FFC transfers is that overall progressivity will improve. To be sure, there will be transitional costs entailed by the reduction in CAS transfers. But the scope for dislocation has been minimized because the extra FFC resources will flow precisely to the states that have the largest CASfinanced schemes. In sum, the far-reaching recommendations of the FFC, along with the creation of the NITI Aayog, will further the Government’s vision of cooperative and competitive federalism. The necessary, indeed vital, encompassing of cities and other local bodies within the embrace of cooperative and competitive federalism is the next policy challenge.

Economic Survey 2014-15 Volume II

Government of India Ministry of Finance Department of Economic Affairs Economic Division February, 2015

CONTENTS 1

1 1 7 11 12 12 13 14 17 17

STATE OF THE ECONOMY –AN OVERVIEW Recent Growth Record Aggregate Demand Factor Shares in GVA Per Capita Income Public Finance Prices and Monetary Management External Sector Outlook for 2015-16 Sectoral Developments

PUBLIC FINANCE 25 Fiscal Policy for 2014-15 25 Non-debt Receipts 26 Tax Revenue 29 Collection Rates 29 Tax Expenditure 31 Non-Tax Revenue 31 Non-debt Capital receipts 32 Trends in Expenditure 32 Plan Expenditure 33 Non-Plan Expenditure 33 Subsidies 35 Interest Payment 35 Provisional Outcome in 2014-15 vis-à-vis BE 2014-15 36 Government Debt 37 Performance of Departmental Enterprises of the Central Government 37 Fiscal performance of the States 38 Consolidated General Government 38 Outlook

MONETARY MANAGEMENT AND FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION 39 Monetary Developments During 2014-15 39 Trends in Monetary Aggregates 40 Liquidity Management 41 Liquidity Conditions 42 Developments in Government Securities Markets 43 Bank Credit 45 Performance of Scheduled Commercial Banks 45 Financial Inclusion 46 Non-Banking Financial Companies 46 Developments in Capital Markets 48 Insurance Sector 48 Pension Sector (i)

EXTERNAL SECTOR 50 Global Economic Environment 51 Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Merchandise Trade 57 Trade Policy 58 WTO Negotiations and India 60 Balance of Payments Developments 62 Foreign Exchange Reserves 63 Exchange Rate 65 External Debt

PRICES, AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT 69 Trends in WPI and CPI inflation 72 Factors causing moderation in inflation 75 Household inflation expectations 75 Agriculture and Food Management 76 Overview of Agricultural sector 77 Area, Production, and Yield 78 Drivers of Growth 82 Major Schemes of the Government 82 Sustainability and Adaptability 82 Allied Sectors: Animal Husbandry, Dairying, and Fisheries 83 Food Management 87 Agri-Marketing Reforms 87 Commodity Futures Market 88 Trade Policy 89 Agriculture Trade 89 Outlook and Challenges ahead

90 92 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 99 99 100 101 102

INDUSTRIAL, CORPORATE, AND INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE IIP-Based Industrial Performance Industrial-sector performance based on revised GDP estimates Performance of Eight Core Industries Comparative position of India and World Manufacturing Corporate- sector Performance Gross Capital Formation in the Industrial Sector Credit Flow to the Industrial Sector MSME Sector CPSEs FDI Infrastructure Performance -Specific Sectors Power Petroleum and Natural Gas New and Renewable Energy Coal Minerals Railways Roads (ii)

103 104 104 105

Civil Aviation Ports Telecommunications Urban Infrastructure

SERVICES SECTOR 106 International Comparison 107 India’s Services Sector 107 Services GDP and Gross Capital Formation 109 State-wise Comparison of Services 109 FDI in India’s Services Sector 110 India’s Services Trade 113 India’s Services Employment 113 Major Services: Overall Performance 114 Major Services: Sector-Wise Performance and Some Recent Policies 114 Tourism 115 Shipping 116 Port Services 116 IT and ITeS 117 Research and Development Services 118 Consultancy Services 118 Real Estate and Housing 119 Internal Trade 119 Media and Entertainment Services

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 120. Recent Scientific Findings from IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 122. Global GHG Emissions from Major Sectors and Countries 122. India’s Progress in Addressing Climate Change 125. International State of Negotiations: 20th Session of the Conference of Parties to UNFCCC 125. International Climate Finance Flows 128. International Carbon Markets 128. Sustainable Development

131 132 134 138 140 140 143 144 145 146

SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE, EMPLOYMENT, AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT Educational Challenges Employment Matters Towards a Healthy India Poverty Human Development: International Comparison Fostering Inclusive Growth Demographic Dividend and Related Policy Interventions Trends in India’s Social-Sector Expenditure Conclusion

(iii)

NOTES The following f igures/units are used in the Economic Survey: BCM BU MT lakh million crore

billion cubic metres billion units million tonnes 1,00,000 10 lakh 10 million

kilogram

hectare

Bbl

billion barrels per litre

billion

1,000 million/100 crore

trillion

1,000 billion/100,000 crore

Arvind Subramanian Chief Economic Adviser Ministry of Finance Government of India

(iv)

ABBREVIATIONS AAY AAY AE ADR AFOLU APMC AR5 ASEAN AT & C BBP BCBS BCD BDI BPLR BPM CACP CASA CAGR CCFS CCP CES CLA CMIE COP CPI-NS CRAR CRIS CSMS CTT CWC CWC CFPI DDA DDUGJY DDU-GKY DGH DISE DFTP DGCIS DRM DWT DRT DWT ECGC EFTA EMDEs EMEs EOU ETA FCNR (B) FEE FIT FMS FOMC FPI FPS FSAT FSLRC GBS GRDI GSPR G2B

Antyodaya Anna Yojana Antyodaya Anna Yojana Advance Estimates American Depository Receipt. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee. Assessment Report 5 Association of South East Asian Nations Aggregate Technical & Commercial Beti Bachao Beti Padhao Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Bond-Currency-Derivative. Baltic Dry Index Base Prime Lending Rate Business Process Management Commission for Agricultural Costs & Prices Current and Savings Account. Compound Annual Growth Rate Committee on Comprehensive Financial Services for Small Businesses and Low-Income Households. Central counter party. Consumer Expenditure Survey Central Loan Assistance Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Conference of Parties Consumer Price Index-New Series Capital to Risk Weighted Assets Ratio. Centre for Railway Information Systems Core Subsidy Management System Commodities Transaction Tax. Central Water Commission Central Warehousing Corporation Consumer Food Price Index Doha Development Agenda Deendayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana Deen Dyal Upadhya grameen Kaoshalya Yojana Directorate General of Hydrocarbons District Information System for Education Duty Free Tariff Preference Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics. Domestic Resource Mobilization Deadweight Tonnage Debts Recovery Tribunal. Dead Weight Tonnage Export Credit Guarantee Scheme. European Free Trade Association Emerging Market and Developing Economies Emerging Market Economies Export-Oriented Unit Electronic Travel Authorization Foreign Currency Non-Resident Deposit (Banks) Foreign Exchange Earnings Flexible Inflation Targeting. Focus Market Scheme Federal Open Market Committee. Foreign Portfolio Investor. Focus Product Scheme Financial Sector Appellate Tribunal. Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission. Gross budgetary support Global Retail Development Index Global R&D Service Providers Government to Business

GDR GEF GERD GNPA GRDI G-Sec GT GTRHITS HKMD HRIDAY

Global Depository Receipt. Global Environment Facility Gross Expenditure on Research and Development Gross non-performing assets. Global Retail Development Index Government securities. Gross Tonnage Gross tax revenue Headend in The Sky Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration Heritage City Development and Augmentation Yojana IEM Industrial Entrepreneur Memorandum ICD Inland Container Depots ICPs Integrated Check Posts ITAs International Tourist Arrivals ITeS Information Technology Enabled Services ITRs International Tourism Receipts IFC Indian Financial Code. IIP International Investment Position IPP Institutional Placement Programme. IISER Indian Institute of Science Education & Research INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions IPDS Integrated Power Development Scheme IPP Institutional Placement Programme. IT-ITeS Information Technology Information Technology Enabled Services ITA Information Technology Agreement JMC Joint Ministerial Commission LAF Liquidity Adjustment Facility. LCOs Local Cable Operators LULUCF Land use, Land-use Change and Forestry MANAS Maulana Azad National Academy for Skills M AT Minimum Alternative Tax MIS Management Information System. MMSCMD Million Metric Standard Cubic Metre per Day MSF Marginal Standing Facility. MSOs Multi System Operators MPS Minimum Public Shareholding. MSF Marginal Standing Facility. MSMED Act Micro,Small and Medium Enterprises Development Act MT Metric Tonne. MTFPS Medium Term Fiscal Policy statement NASSCOM National Association of Software and Service Companies NALSA National Legal Services Authority NAM National AYUSH Mission NAPCC National Action Plan on Climate Change NBFI Non banking financial institution. NBS Nutrient Based Subsidy. NBFC-ND-SI Systemically Important Non-Deposit taking NonBanking Financial Company NCEF National Clean Energy Fund NCEUS National Commission on Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector NCVT National Council for Vocational Training NDA Net Domestic Assets. NDR National Data Repository NDTL Net Demand and Time Liability. NEER Nominal Effective Exchange Rate NeGP National e-Governance Plan. NELP New Exploration Licensing Policy NDTL Net Demand and Time Liability. NFM Non-food manufactured NFA Net Foreign Assets.

(v)

NFSM NHPC NIAEs NIDC NMCC NMDFC NOFN NPAG NPCBB NPIT NWR ODF OMO OWG PAT PCT PDMA PDSN PE PEG PISA PLF PMI PNGRB QE QFI QIP R-APDRP RCEP REC REER REITs RFPI RoE SAAR

National Food Security Mission National Hydro-Electric Power Corporation Newly Industrialized Asian Economies National Industrial Development Corporation Limited National Manufacturing Competitive Council National Minorities Development and Finance Corporation National Optical Fibre Network Nutrition Programme for Adolescent Girls National Project for Cattle and Buffalo Breeding National Policy on Information Technology Negotiable Warehouse Receipt Open Defecation Free Open Market Operation. Open Working Group Perform Achieve Trade Patent Cooperation Treaty Public Debt Management Agency. Public Distribution System Network Private Equity. Private Entrepreneurs Guarantee Programme for International Student Assessment. Plant Load Factor Purchasing Managers Index. Petroleum & Natural Gas Regulatory Board Quantitative easing. Qualified Foreign Investor. Qualified institutional placement Restructured Accelerated Power Development and Reforms Programme Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Renewable Energy Certificates Real Effective Exchange Rate Real Estate Investment Trusts Registered Foreign Portfolio Investor. Return on Equity. Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate

SAC SAPCC SARFESI SBM SSCs CRR SAGY SDGs SMA SPI SRS STT STU SWC SWMA TAFTA TCF TEE TEUs TiVA TMM TNC TPF TSA UNFCCC UNSC UNWTO USTTAD VKGUY WALR WEO WHT WIOD WMA WTTC

(vi)

Space Applications Centre State Action Plan on Climate Change Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest. Swachh Bharat Mission Sector Skill Councils Securities Contracts (Regulation) rules. Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojna Sustainable Development Goals Special Mention Accounts. Services Price Index Sample Registration System Securities Transaction Tax. State Transmission Utility State Warehousing Corporations Special Ways and Means Advances. Transatlantic Free Trade Area/Agreement Trillion Cubic Feet Town of Exports Excellence Twenty Foot Equivalent Units Trade in Value Added Trade Monitoring Mechanism Trade Negotiating Committee Trade Policy Forum Tourism Satellite Account United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations Statistical Commission United Nations World Tourism Organization Upgrading the Skills and Training Arts/Crafts for Development Vishesh Krishi and Gram Udyog Yojana Weighted average lending rate. World Economic Outlook. Withholding Tax. World Input-Output Database Ways and Means Advances. World Travel and Tourism Council

State of the Economy-An Overview

01 CHAPTER

One of the redeeming features, while comparing economic performance across different countries for the year 2014-15, has been the emergence of India among the few large economies with propitious economic outlook, amidst the mood of pessimism and uncertainties that engulf a number of advanced and emerging economies. Brighter prospects in India owe mainly to the fact that the economy stands largely relieved of the vulnerabilities associated with an economic slowdown, persistent inflation, elevated fiscal deficit, slackening domestic demand, external account imbalances, and oscillating value of the rupee in 2011-12 and 2012-13. From the macroeconomic perspective, the worst is clearly behind us. The latest indicators, emerging from the recently revised estimates of national income brought out by the Central Statistics Office, point to the fact that the revival of growth had started in 2013-14 and attained further vigour in 2014-15. Factors like the steep decline in oil prices, plentiful flow of funds from the rest of the world, and potential impact of the reform initiatives of the new government at the centre along with its commitment to calibrated fiscal management and consolidation bode well for the growth prospects and the overall macroeconomic situation. Encouraged by the greater macro-economic stability and the reformist intent and actions of the government, coupled with improved business sentiments in the country, institutions like the IMF and the World Bank have presented an optimistic growth outlook for India for the year 2015 and beyond. The possible headwinds to such promising prospects, however, emanate from factors like inadequate support from the global economy saddled with subdued demand conditions, particularly in Europe and Japan, recent slowdown in China, and, on the domestic front, from possible spill-overs of below normal agricultural growth and challenges relating to the massive requirements of skill creation and infrastructural upgradation. The encouraging results from the Advance Estimates for 2014-15 suggest that though the global sluggishness has partly fed into the lacklustre growth in foreign trade; yet this downward pressure has been compensated by strong domestic demand, keeping the growth momentum going.

RECENT GROWTH RECORD 1.2 Before analysing the recent macroeconomic trends, it may be mentioned that the Central

Statistics Office (CSO) has recently revised the national accounts aggregates by shifting to the new base of 2011-12 from the earlier base of 200405 (see Box 1.1 for details). Given the provisional

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 0.1 : Key Indicators Data categories 1.

Unit

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

GDP and Related Indicators NS

GDP (constant market prices)

` Crore

Growth Rate

GVA at Basic prices (2011-12 prices)

` Crore

Growth Rate

—

4.9

6.6

7.5

Saving Rate

% of GDP

33.9

31.8

30.6

Capital Formation (rate)

% of GDP

38.2

36.6

32.3

Per Capita Net National Income (At current market prices)

8832012

— 8195546

64316

9280803

5.1 8599224

71593

9921106

6.9 9169787

80388

10656925

7.4 9857672

na 88533

Production Food grains

Million tonnes

259.3

257.1

265.6

257.1

2.9

1.1

-0.1

2.1

8.1

4.0

6.0

9.9

Inflation (WPI) (average)

8.9

7.4

6.0

3.4

Inflation CPI (IW) (average)

8.4

10.4

9.7

6.2

Export growth ( US$)

21.8

-1.8

4.7

4.0

Import growth (US$)

32.3

0.3

-8.3

3.6

-1.9 (H1)

Index of Industrial Production

(growth)

Electricity Generation (growth) 3.

Prices

Current Account Balance (CAB)/GDP Average Exchange Rate

f f

External Sector

Foreign Exchange Reserves

f f

-4.2

-4.7

-1.7

US$ billion

294.4

292.0

304.2

328.7

` /US$

47.92

54.41

60.50

60.78

Money and Credit Broad Money (M3) (annual)

% change

13.5

13.6

13.2

11.5

Scheduled Commercial Bank Credit

% change

17.0

14.1

13.9

10.7

% of GDP

5.7

4.8

4.5

h h

Fiscal Indicators (Centre) Gross Fiscal Deficit Revenue Deficit Primary Deficit

% of GDP % of GDP

4.4 2.7

3.6 1.8

3.2 1.2

d d d

4.1 2.9 0.8

e e e

Note: na : Not Available, NS : New Series Estimates. AE : Advance Estimate. H1: April-September 2014. a 2 nd Advance Estimates. b Base (2004-05=100). c Indicative rates announced by Foreign Exchange Dealers Association of India (FEDAI) and from May 2012 onwards are RBI’s reference rates. d Fiscal indicates for 2013-14 are based on the provisional actual. e Budget Estimates f April-December 2014. g Figures for 2011-12 to 2013-14 relate to end of financial year and the figure for 2014-15 is at end January 2015. h As on January 9, 2015.

State of the Economy-An Overview

Box 1.1 : Revision of the Base Year of National Accounts from 2004-05 to 2011-12 The current base year revision follows the revision undertaken in January 2010. The following are the major changes incorporated in the just-concluded base-year revision: (i) Headline growth rate will now be measured by GDP at constant market prices, which will henceforth be referred to as 'GDP', as is the practice internationally. Earlier, growth was measured in terms of growth rate in GDP at factor cost at constant prices. (ii) Sector-wise estimates of gross value added (GVA) will now be given at basic prices instead of factor cost. The relationship between GVA at factor cost, GVA, at basic prices, and GDP (at market prices) is given below: GVA at basic prices = CE + OS/MI + CFC + production taxes less production subsidies GVA at factor cost = GVA at basic prices - production taxes less production subsidies GDP = â&#x2C6;&#x2018; GVA at basic prices + product taxes - product subsidies (where, CE : compensation of employees; OS: operating surplus; MI: mixed income; and, CFC: consumption of fixed capital. Production taxes or production subsidies are paid or received with relation to production and are independent of the volume of actual production. Some examples of production taxes are land revenues, stamps and registration fees and tax on profession. Some production subsidies are subsidies to Railways, input subsidies to farmers, subsidies to village and small industries, administrative subsidies to corporations or cooperatives, etc. Product taxes or subsidies are paid or received on per unit of product. Some examples of product taxes are excise tax, sales tax, service tax and import and export duties. Product subsidies include food, petroleum and fertilizer subsidies, interest subsidies given to farmers, households, etc. through banks, and subsidies for providing insurance to households at lower rates). (iii) Comprehensive coverage of the corporate sector both in manufacturing and services by incorporation of annual accounts of companies as filed with the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) under their e-governance initiative, MCA21. Use of MCA21 database for manufacturing companies has helped account for activities other than manufacturing undertaken by these companies. (iv) Comprehensive coverage of the financial sector by inclusion of information from the accounts of stock brokers, stock exchanges, asset management companies, mutual funds and pension funds, and the regulatory bodies including the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) and Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA). (v) Improved coverage of activities of local bodies and autonomous institutions, covering around 60 per cent of the grants/transfers provided to these institutions. Owing to these changes, estimates of GVA both at aggregate and sectoral levels have undergone changes. The sector-wise shares in aggregate GVA have undergone significant revision especially in the case of manufacturing and services (Figure 1). Changes have also been observed in the growth rates in GVAs of individual sectors and contribution of each sector to overall GVA due to use of sales tax and service tax data for estimation in the years 2012-13 and 2013-14. Caution needs to be exercised while comparing estimates and growth rates from the earlier series to the new series.

Economic Survey 2014-15

and preliminary nature of the available information that may take time to stabilize and the fact that information for growth-related parameters is available only for three years on the revised base, it becomes difficult to objectively analyse the broad macroeconomic trends on a longer term horizon. The new set of information also cannot be compared with the information and analysis based on the 2004-05 series. 1.3 The economic scenario presented by the new series (with 2011-12 as base year) reveals that there was perceptible improvement in some of the macro-aggregates of the economy in 201314, which got strengthened in 2014-15. Economic growth, measured by growth in gross domestic product (GDP) at constant market prices, estimated at 5.1 per cent and 6.9 per cent respectively during 2012-13 and 2013-14, was higher than the corresponding figures of 4.7 per cent and 5.0 per cent released under the 2004-05 series in May 2014. That this high growth occurred in a year when the both the savings and investment to GDP ratios were lower than the average of a number of years and when the level of imports (that are generally positively associated with GDP) actually declined by 8.4 per cent in real terms, is somewhat puzzling. One of the reasons why the real GDP growth rate for 2013-14 appears to be strong is the lower GDP level in 2011-12 and 2012-13 along with lower GDP deflators than were thought hitherto.

Table 1.1 : Comparison of Old Series and New Series Item

Year

Difference between new series and old series in percentage points

Growth in GVA at factor cost Growth in deflator Level of GVA at factor cost at current prices

2012-13 2013-14 2012-13 2013-14 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

0.4 1.9 0.5 -0.3 -2.2 -1.3 0.2

Source: CSO.

1.4 The table 1.1 captures these effects separately based on the new and old series of the GVA at factor cost. The level of GVA was lower in 2011-12 and 2012-13 in the new series vis-Ă vis the old series, with the degree of change tapering off in successive years. [This cannot be verified for the Advance Estimates (AE) for 2014-15, for which only the data from new series is available]. A greater decline in the level of GDP in 2011-12 and 2012-13, has given an upward push to the growth rate in the 2013-14. On the other hand, the upward revision of inflation in 2012-13, measured by the GDP deflator, gave a downward push to growth, but not to the extent of nullifying the positive effect of relative revisions in absolute levels. In 2013-14, the downward revision in the deflator pushed up real growth in the new series.

Table 1.2 : Growth in GVA at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices (per cent) 2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

Agriculture, forestry & fishing

1.2

3.7

1.1

Industry Mining & quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas, water supply,& other utility services Construction Services Trade, hotels & restaurants, transport &communication Financing, insurance, real estate & business services Community, social,& personal services GVA at basic prices GDP (at market prices)

2.3 -0.2 6.2 4.0 -4.3 8.0 9.6 8.8 4.7 4.9 5.1

4.5 5.4 5.3 4.8 2.5 9.1 11.1 7.9 7.9 6.6 6.9

5.9 2.3 6.8 9.6 4.5 10.6 8.4 13.7 9.0 7.5 7.4

Source: Based on the CSOâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Press Notes dated 30 January 2015 and 9 February 2015.

State of the Economy-An Overview

1.5 The estimates at disaggregated level (Table 1.2) indicate that agriculture and allied sectorsâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; including crops, livestock, forestry and logging, and fishingâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;picked up growth in 2013-14. This was not unexpected as 2013-14 happened to be an exceptionally good year from the point of view of rainfall. 1.6 The manufacturing sector registered a growth of 6.2 per cent and 5.3 per cent respectively in 2012-13 and 2013-14 (6.1 per cent and 5.3 per cent in terms of GVA at factor cost). As per the pre-revised series, this growth was 1.1 per cent and - 0.7 per cent. This surprising change in growth rate can be ascribed to normal data revisions that take place as per revision schedules, the effect of base change as well as more comprehensive coverage of the corporate sector with the incorporation of MCA21 database of the Ministry of Corporate Affairs. For instance, on the basis of earlier methodology and the 2004-05 series, growth rate of the manufacturing sector for 201112 was 3.9 per cent as per estimates released in February 2012, which was later revised to 2.7 per cent in January 2013 and 7.4 per cent in January 2014. This implies that some revision in manufacturing growth could have taken place in 2012-13 and 2013-14, even without the base revision. The upward revision in manufacturing growth in the new series also owes to inclusion of trade carried out by manufacturing companies in the manufacturing sector itself, which was earlier part of the services sector. 1.7 At the disaggregated level of the new series, the growth in manufacturing sector was chiefly on account of robust growth in textiles, apparels, and leather products, averaging 17.7 per cent during 2012-13 and 2013-14, and the machinery and equipment sector averaging 9.3 per cent. Food products are yet to pick up momentum. 1.8 The services sector triggered the growth momentum in 2013-14. Services like trade and repair services, rail transport, communication and broadcasting services and miscellaneous services achieved double-digits/close to double-digits growth during the year. However, sectors like

water transport and storage services lagged behind. 1.9 The AE of national income for the current year indicate that the positive growth trends that unravelled in 2013-14 appear to have strengthened in 2014-15 in the industrial and services sectors, with the result that the growth in GVA at basic prices improved by 0.9 percentage points and the GDP by 0.5 percentage points in 2014-15. While electricity, gas, and water supply and other utility services are projected to achieve robust growth, manufacturing has gained momentum. Construction has done better while mining and quarrying activities still exhibit a tentative pattern. With appropriate policy changes, coal sector has broken shackles and grew by 9.1 per cent during April-December 2014. However, crude oil, natural gas and refinery products continued the slump, damaging the overall mining story. It is difficult to reconcile the results for the industrial sector, particularly manufacturing, from the new series of the national accounts with the indications from the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). The IIP is based on a limited sample of producing units, while the new series of national accounts employs varied data sources including Annual Survey of Industries, MCA21 and IIP. 1.10 All major service-sector activities are estimated to have done well in the current year too. Financing, insurance, real estate, and business services, one of the most dynamic sector in the economy in recent years, is reckoned to have driven growth in the current year. 1.11 The base revision has also shown that the contribution of the agriculture sector to overall GVA at factor cost is somewhat higher than was hitherto being shown on the basis of the earlier (2004-05) series. In addition, despite higher growth in services, there has been a realignment of sectoral shares in favour of the industrial sector mainly on account of the correction for underestimation of manufacturing GVA in the old series and overestimation of the trade sector GVA in services (Table 1.3).

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 1.3 : Share in GVA at Factor Cost at Current Prices Sector Agriculture and allied activities Industry Services

2004-05 series 2011-12 series 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 17.9 27.2 54.9

17.5 26.2 56.3

18.2 24.8 57.0

18.9 32.9 48.2

18.7 31.7 49.6

18.6 30.5 50.9

17.6 29.7 52.7

Source : CSOâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Press Releases of 30 January 2015 and 9 February 2015 on New Series Estimates of National Income.

cent is estimated in GVA at constant basic prices for Q4 2014-15 (Table 1.4).

1.12 Overall, the average share of the industrial sector was revised upwards by 5.6 percentage points from 26.1 per cent in the old series to 31.7 per cent under the new series, for the three- year block, 2011-12 to 2013-14. Corresponding to this, there was a downward revision in the average share of services by 6.5 percentage points from 56.1 per cent to 49.6 per cent. Agriculture and allied sectors also had a share gain of 0.9 percentage point during the period. Despite reasonable growth in the industrial sector, its GVA share declined in 2014-15 because of the robust growth in the services sector. It is observed that the contribution of the services sector to total GVA growth (at basic prices) increased from 68.2 per cent in 2013-14 to 72.4 per cent in 2014-15, while the corresponding figures for agriculture and allied sectors and the industrial sector changed from 9.8 per cent to 2.6 per cent and from 22.1 per cent to 25.1 per cent respectively.

1.14 The quarter-wise figures of growth suggest that the momentum has been kept up in all quarters of 2014-15.The mild decline in growth in Q3 could be on account of the dampening impact of agriculture and allied sectors and the moderation in the industrial sector. 1.15 Some variations in the quarterly contribution to the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GDP have been observed in the 2004-05 series as well as in the revised (2011-12) series of national accounts. In the revised series is noticed that the first half of the financial year accounts for about 47 per cent of the total GDP at current prices, whereas the second half accounts for 53 per cent. A similar pattern of variations was noticed in the GDP at current market prices for 2004-05 series, in which the first half accounted for around 46 per cent of total GDP, while the balance 54 per cent was accounted for by the second half.

Quarter-wise Trends 1.13 Quarter-wise numbers of growth are useful in tracing the under lying momentum. Comparing the AE of growth for the full year 2014-15 and the estimates for the first three quarters, it is observed that an implied growth rate of 7.8 per

Value of Output and Value Added 1.16 The difference between gross value of output (GVO) and gross value added (GVA) is intermediate consumption. Contrasts in the sectoral shares in GVA and GVO presented in Table 1.5

Table 1.4 : Quarter-wise Growth in GVA at (2011-12) Basic Prices (year-on-year) 2013-14

2014-15

Sector

Agriculture, forestry, and fishing

2.7

3.6

3.8

4.4

3.5

2.0

-0.4

Industry

4.8

4.0

5.0

4.3

6.1

6.0

3.9

Services

10.2

10.6

9.1

6.4

8.6

10.1

13.5

GVA at basic prices

7.2

7.5

6.6

5.3

7.0

7.8

7.5

Source : CSOâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Press Release dated 9 February 2015.

State of the Economy-An Overview

Table 1.5 : Relationship between GVA and GVO (at constant prices) Ratio of Sectoral GVA to Sectoral GVO

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Ratio of sectoral GVO to total GVO *

Agriculture & allied

77.1

77.2

77.3

10.4

17.8

1.0

3.6

Industry

25.4

26.4

26.5

55.9

32.4

-1.6

3.9

20.5

22.2

22.4

37.7

18.2

-1.8

4.3

Services

65.7

66.6

67.6

33.7

49.9

6.5

7.4

Total

43.8

45.4

46.0

100.0

1.3

5.1

Item 1

Manufacturing

Ratio of sectoral GVAto total GVA *

2012-13

2013-14

Growth in GVO (per cent)

Notes : Calculations based on CSO data; * average for 2011-12 to 2013-14.

(columns 5 and 6) echo the differences in the value addition ratios presented in Columns 2 to 4 of the table. 1.17 The ratio of GVA to GVO shows that value addition is the highest in agriculture and lowest in manufacturing. The differences between the GVO shares and GVA shares are stark among all the sectors, particularly manufacturing. The low ratio of GVA to GVO in manufacturing signifies, on the one hand, that the sector creates substantial demand for the output of other sectors and, on the other, that Indian manufacturing needs to move up the value chain to improve its contribution to overall GVA. 1.18 From the data presented in Tables 1.2 and 1.5, it turns out that in the case of manufacturing, the GVO (at constant prices) declined by 1.8 per cent in 2012-13, while the real GVA grew by 6.2 per cent. Simultaneously, the ratio of GVA to GVO increased significantly (Table 1.5). Furthermore, the ratio of consumption of fixed capital to GVA at constant prices in manufacturing declined from 17.5 per cent in 2011-12 to 17.1 per cent in 201213. Hence, despite an output contraction, the factor incomes increased significantly in manufacturing leading to a 6.2 per cent growth in the sectorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GVA in 2013-14. Similarly, in the services sector, the growth in GVA in 2012-13 was 1.5 percentage points higher than the growth in GVO.

1.19 From Tables 1.1 and 1.5, it can further be observed that the outcome of the growth in GVA outstripping the growth in GVO in manufacturing and services continued in 2013-14. In manufacturing, GVO growth turned positive (4.3 per cent) in 2013-14, but it was outpaced by the growth in GVA. These emerging trends in manufacturing and services, indicating improving value addition and hence, in a way, greater efficiency in production, are encouraging.

AGGREGATE DEMAND 1.20 The Indian economy underwent serious demand and supply constraints in recent years. With the firming up of growth in 2013-14, the final consumption expenditure in the economy (expressed at constant prices) also got strengthened (Table 1.6). 1.21 There was a downward pressure on aggregate demand due to the steep decline in the rate of capital formation (Table 1.6), constraining domestic absorption (consumption plus investment) to grow by only 2.8 per cent in 201314. Despite this, a growth close to 7 per cent was achieved in 2013-14 on the back of the robust 7.3 per cent growth in exports of goods and services and 8.4 per cent downslide in imports. 1.22 The decline in the rate of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) during 2013-14 was much less pronounced than in the overall investment rate

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table1.6 : Growth in GDP at Constant (2011-12) Market Prices (per cent) 2012-13

2013-14

2014-15(A)

4.9

6.5

7.6

Private final consumption expenditure

5.5

6.2

7.1

Government final consumption expenditure

1.7

8.2

10.0

2.6

-4.0

Gross fixed capital formation

-0.3

3.0

4.1

Changes in stock

-6.2

-21.4

3.9

Valuables

3.3

-48.7

28.2

Exports

6.7

7.3

0.9

Imports

6.0

-8.4

-0.5

Growth in GDP at constant market prices

5.1

6.9

7.4

Total final consumption expenditure

Gross capital formation*

Source : CSO. Notes : A : Advance Estimates; * Gross Capital Formation adjusted for errors and omissions. NA : Not available

(gross capital formation-GCF), because the other two components of GCF, viz. changes in stock and valuables, declined significantly (Tables 1.6 and 1.7). The correction in the stock of inventories is an ongoing process that is determined by the demand and supply conditions and is not, in a big way, related to the capital base of the economy. Likewise, valuables, i.e. the accumulation of gold, silver, and other precious metals, do not add much to the productive base either. Hence the decline in these items in 2013-14, though in accounting sense leads to a moderation in investment, need not be read much into. However, the almost five percentage point reduction in the rate of fixed investment (Table 1.7) from 2011-12 to 2014-15 would need to be reversed for growth to be sustained and augmented. Contrary to the longterm trends in consumption, the average propensity to consume increased visibly (Table 1.7) during

the last three years, mainly on account of higher growth in government consumption expenditure. This is expected to partially provide the required demand impetus to growth. 1.23 The demand side of the GDP presented mixed signals in 2014-15. First, the increasing trends in consumption have gradually firmed up, with both private and government consumption growing in strength (Tables 1. 6 and 1.7). Second, the fixed capital formation in the economy has picked up growth but lost share in aggregate demand. Third, there is hardly any support to growth from exports. The deceleration in imports owes substantially to the sharp decline in international oil prices in the current year that compressed the oil import bill. Hence one cautious conclusion could be that the ongoing growth revival is predominantly domestic consumption-driven.

Table 1.7 : Rates of Expenditure Components to GDP at Current Prices 1. 2.

Final consumption expenditure Gross capital formation Gross fixed capital formation Changes in stock Valuables Net export of goods and services

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

68.8 38.2 33.6 2.4 2.9 -6.4

69.7 36.6 31.4 2.1 2.8 -6.7

71.0 32.3 29.7 1.6 1.3 -2.9

Source : CSO. Note: Shares will not add up due to statistical discrepancies, NA=Not available.

2014-15 72.1 NA 28.6 1.5 1.3 -2.4

State of the Economy-An Overview

Source : World Bank data base, except for India’s growth rate which is fromthe CSO. Note : For India, figures are for the financial year 2013-14.

1.24 Comparison of the growth rates and ratios of GFCF to GDP among countries from Figure 1.1 conveys that India operates at the lowest incremental capital output ratios (ICOR-based on GFCF) among the BRICS countries (and Indonesia). Given an average fixed investment rate of 30.5 per cent for 2012-13 and 2013-14, and given the average GDP growth of 6 per cent for these years, the ICOR works out to 5.1. With growth improving to 7.4 per cent in 2014-15 and with the ratio of GFCF declining slightly (despite acceleration in the rate of growth of GFCF), the ICOR for India may have declined further. 1.25 From the past trends in the saving rate (gross domestic savings as percentage of GDP) available from the pre-revised series, it is observed that it reached its historical peak in 2007-08 (36.8 per cent) and then remained volatile, with a general downward movement. While private corporate savings steadily declined, household savings witnessed realignment in favour of accumulation of physical assets at the cost of financial savings. Indications of compositional changes in savings can be seen from the data for three years based on the new series. 1.26 While the old series of savings is not strictly comparable with the new series (2011-12 base) for many reasons, including on account of the inclusion of ‘valuables’ as part of savings, the three

Table 1.8 : Gross Savings as Percentage of GDP at Market Prices 2011-12 Gross savings

2012-13 2013-14

33.9

31.8

30.6

Public

1.4

1.7

1.6

Private corporate

9.7

10.0

10.9

22.8

20.2

18.2

Physical*

15.5

13.2

11.0

Financial

7.3

7.0

7.2

Household

Source : CSO. Note: *Household physical savings include valuables.

years’ data from the new series suggests that households’ acquisition of physical assets is on the decline (Table 1.8). Disaggregated data further shows that despite the annual addition to financial assets of households growing from 31.2 per cent of gross savings in 2011-12 to 36.8 per cent in 2013-14, the rate of financial savings of households did not pick up (Table 1.8) because their financial liabilities increased simultaneously from 9.7 per cent of gross savings to 13.2 per cent. Data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows that, on one side, additional bank deposits of households increased by 27.8 per cent during 2011-12 to 2013-14, while, on the other side, bank advances to households increased by 25.9 per cent.

Economic Survey 2014-15

1.27 The retained profits of the private corporate sector adjusted for non-operating surplus/ deficit, defined as their savings under the national accounts, increased during 2011-12 to 2013-14 (Table 1.8).This is in contrast to the trends revealed by the old series which had shown that private corporate saving was only 7.3 per cent of the GDP in 2011-12 and it declined to 7.1 per cent in 201213.The reliance on the MCA21 database with a much larger coverage of companies than the RBIâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s sample studies on finances of non-financial corporations (which was the data source for the old series) may have led to the afore-shown revision in the ratios and their trends. As per the new series, the ratio of the savings of private nonfinancial corporations to GDP increased from 8.5 per cent in 2011-12 to 9.5 per cent in 2013-14, while the change in the saving rate of private financial corporations was only marginal. 1.28 There was no significant change in the inter se composition of public-sector savings from 2011-12 to 2013-14, except that the dissaving of the general government got reduced, which is consistent with the reduction in the combined revenue deficit of the central and state governments during the period. The combined revenue deficits of the centre and states declined from 4.1 per cent in 2011-12 to 3.7 per cent (RE) in 2012-13 and further to 2.9 per cent (BE) in 2013-14 (Source : Reserve Bank of India). Table 1.9 : Ratio of Investment to GDP (at current market prices-per cent) 2011-12 Gross capital formation

2012-13 2013-14

1.29 Juxtaposing savings with investment (Tables 1.8 and 1.9), it becomes clear that it was the large saving-investment gap of the consolidated public sector, complemented by a less pronounced gap in the private corporate sector, which could not be fully defrayed by the savings of households, that constituted the aggregate saving-investment gap. The gap between domestic savings and domestic investment is definitionally equal to the current account balance (net capital inflows in Table 1.9). In view of the above, it is clear that household financial savings need to be raised to keep the saving-investment gap at acceptable levels. 1.30 The composition of capital formation is important in determining its productivity. This will be determined largely by the complementarities required between machinery and built-in structures. Table 1.10 conveys that the addition to intellectual property products, which is separately shown as part of capital formation in the new series, is gradually picking up. It further shows that construction forms the major part of addition to fixed capital. The erection of dwelling units adds to income and employment significantly during the period of construction and generates large forward and backward linkages through creation of demand in the input sectors and real estate services. (The input output tables 2007-the latest availableindicate that among various sectors, construction has the highest linkages in the economy.) 1.31 However, construction of dwelling units cannot be perceived to make a direct permanent addition to the productive capacity of the economy. Data does not permit examination of such

38.2

36.6

32.3

Public sector

7.6

7.2

8.0

Private sector

28.4

26.3

23.3

Corporate sector

13.3

13.5

12.6

58.2

58.6

15.1

12.9

10.7

Dwellings, other buildings & structures

59.3

Household sector Gross savings

33.9

31.8

30.6

Machinery & equipment

35.6

36.7

35.6

Saving investment gap

-4.3

-4.8

-1.6

0.2

4.3

4.8

1.6

Cultivated biological resources Intellectual property products

4.8

4.9

5.6

Net capital inflow

Source : CSO. Note: Totals may not tally due to adjustment for errors and omissions.

Table 1.10 : Components as Percentage of Total GFCF 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Source : CSO.

State of the Economy-An Overview

Table 1.11 : Household GFCF as Percentage of GDP

Table 1.12 : Sector-wise Distribution of Investment

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Household GFCF 15.0 12.6 10.6 Of which, dwellings, 12.7 10.6 8.9 other building and structures

Sector

Source : CSO.

GCF to GDP ratio (%) 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Agriculture & allied Industry

1.32 The erection of dwelling units, other buildings and structures by households accounted for about 34 per cent of the total GFCF in the economy and 84 per cent of householdsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; own GFCF during 2011-12 to 2013-14. Table 1.11 shows that the share of household construction as a ratio of GDP declined by 3.8 percentage points between 2011-12 and 2013-14. Simultaneously, the ratio of total GFCF to GDP came down by 3.9 percentage points (Table1.6), implying that the reduction in the rate of fixed capital formation during the period was almost fully accounted for by the deceleration in household construction. This may be one of the reasons why a higher growth could be reaped, despite a reduction in fixed capital

2.6

2.5

13.5

12.9

11.7

Manufacturing

7.1

6.9

6.0

Other industrial sectors

6.4

6.0

5.8

19.5

18.0

17.1

Services

construction separately from other construction like roads, rail network, irrigation structures, etc.

3.1

Source : CSO. Note : This does not include valuables and the adjustment factor from flow of funds and hence will not match with GCF.

formation in 2012-13 and 2013-14. Table 1.12 shows that all major sectors have been affected by the reduction in rate of capital formation.

FACTOR

SHARES IN

GVA

1.33 In line with the income approach to GDP, the GVA at basic prices in a year can be expressed as the sum of the compensation of employees (CE), operating surplus (OS) / mixed income of the selfemployed (MI), consumption of fixed capital (CFC) and taxes net of subsidies on production (Table 1.13). CE is the composite value of wages and salaries paid in the sector, including the social

Table 1.13 : The Income Components of GVA and Income and Employment Shares Sector

CE to GVA

OS & MI to GVA

CFC to GVA

Agriculture & allied Industry Mining & quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas, & water supply Construction Service sector Trade, hotels, & restaurants Transport, storage, & communication Financial, real estate, & business services Community, social, & personal services

15.3 35.7 23.9 23.6 31.7 65.2 38.9 23.5 37.9 26.1 72.7

Average 2011-13 81.6 6.6 49.1 14.6 62.5 12.8 58.4 17.0 36.5 34.1 29.1 5.1 50.0 10.4 69.9 5.2 49.8 15.0 61.4 10.8 14.9 12.3

Total

33.6

55.5

Source : CSO.

11.1

GVA share of the sector

Employment share

18.1 31.9 3.0 17.8 2.3 8.8 50.0 11.4 6.6 19.4 12.7

2011 48.9 24.3 0.5 12.6 0.5 10.6 26.9 11.0 4.8 2.3 8.7

100.0

100

Economic Survey 2014-15

contributions made by the employer, representing the income share of employees in the GVA. In the organized sector, OS is the difference between net value added and compensation of employees. As a result of the existence of unincorporated enterprises and household industries in the unorganized sector, which either do not maintain accounts or are wholly managed by self-employed workers, net value added (NVA) cannot be separated as income of labour and entrepreneurship. This necessitated the introduction of an item called mixed income of selfemployed to complete the account.

CE to GVA is also vastly different in these sectors. Community, social, and personal services have a majority government presence.

PER CAPITA INCOME 1.36 During 2012-13 to 2013-14, the average growth in per capita income, i.e. 4.3 per cent as per the new series (Table 1.14), is much higher than the corresponding growth of 2.4 per cent presented by the old series. 1.37 Having analysed the trends in growth, savings, and investment, certain other key macroparameters relating to the fiscal situation, balance of payments (BoP), prices, and monetary management, are discussed in the following paragraphs.

1.34 In the agricultural sector, CE represents only the share of wages to hired labour and hence the total returns to farmers working on their own fields/fields hired by them, becomes part of MI. Hence it is difficult to relate the employment share in agriculture to CE in agriculture. The presence of a large unorganized segment in manufacturing and certain services also makes it difficult to establish correspondence between their employment shares and the CE to GVA ratios. It may be noted that the employment share of the construction sector is higher than its GVA share, and the same gets reflected in the sectorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s CE to GVA ratio. Apart from agriculture, construction is the only sector whose employment share is higher than GVA share. As per the AE for 2014-15, the growth in construction is gradually picking up, which should auger well for employment generation.

PUBLIC FINANCE 1.38 In 2013-14, proactive policy decisions of the government with firm commitment to the policy of fiscal rectitude improved the year-end performance of the fiscal deficit target set for year. The first nine months of 2014-15 have witnessed some major policy reforms in the subsidy regime; the modified direct benefit transfer scheme has been launched; the new domestic gas pricing policy has been approved; and diesel prices have been deregulated. An Expenditure Management Commission has been constituted to look into various aspects of expenditure reforms to achieve the goal of fiscal consolidation. It will review the allocative and operational efficiencies of government expenditure to achieve maximum output.

1.35 Among service-sector activities, two sectors with comparatively lower presence of the unorganized segment include financial, real estate, and business services and community, social, and personal services. Consistent with the contrast in their GVA and employment shares, the ratio of

1.39 As per provisional accounts, the fiscal deficit for 2013-14 worked out at 4.5 per cent of GDP as opposed to the Budget Estimate (BE) of

Table 1.14 : Per Capita Net National Income (` `) 2011-12

Growth (in per cent)

2012-13 2013-14

2014-15

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

At current prices

64316

71593

80388

88533

11.3

12.3

10.1

At constant (2011-12) prices

64316

66344

69959

74193

3.2

5.4

6.1

Source : CSO.

State of the Economy-An Overview

4.8 per cent. Fiscal deficit and revenue deficit were budgeted at ` 5, 31,177 crore (4.1 per cent of GDP) and ` 3, 78,348 crore (2.9 percent of GDP) respectively in 2014-15. 1.40 The BE for 2014-15 aimed at achieving tax to GDP and non-debt receipt to GDP ratios of 10.6 per cent and 9.8 per cent respectively as against a 13.9 per cent total expenditure to GDP ratio. The envisaged growth for gross tax revenue was 17.7 per cent over the Revised Estimates (RE) for 2013-14 and 19.8 per cent over the Provisional Actuals (PA) 2013-14. Total expenditure was estimated to increase by 12.9 per cent and 14.8 per cent in BE 2014-15 over RE 2013-14 and PA 2013-14 respectively. 1.41 As per the data on union government finances for April-December 2014 released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), the gross tax revenue increased by 7 per cent in comparison to the corresponding period of the previous year and is at 58.3 per cent of BE in April-December 2014. The non-tax revenue during AprilDecember 2014 registered an increase of 27.3 per cent over the corresponding period of the previous year due to increase in interest receipts and dividends and profits. In non-debt capital receipts, there is significant shortfall as of December 2014, mainly on account of shortfall in disinvestment receipts, as only ` 1952 crore of the budgeted amount of ` 58,425 crore has been realized. A number of disinvestment proposals are on the anvil and are expected to bring in revenue in the remaining period of fiscal year 2014-15. 1.42 On the expenditure side of Union Government accounts, the notable trends during April-December 2014 include a shortfall in growth in Plan and non-Plan expenditure vis-Ă -vis the corresponding period of the previous year. Major subsidies during April-December 2014 have increased by 12.5 per cent compared to AprilDecember 2013 due to increase in food subsidy (` 21,807 crore) and fertilizer subsidy (` 6620 crore). A significant positive outcome in 2014-15 so far is a decline in petroleum subsidy by ` 4908 crore compared to the corresponding period in

2013-14 due to fuel pricing reforms and fall in the global prices of petroleum products. 1.43 Fiscal deficit at 100.2 per cent of BE in 2014-15 (April-December) is much higher than the five-year -average of 77.7 per cent. The revenue deficit for April-December 2014 is estimated at 106.2 per cent of BE and is significantly higher than the five-year -average of 81.4 per cent.

PRICES AND MONETARY MANAGEMENT 1.44 Headline inflation measured in terms of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) (base year 200405=100) which remained persistently high at around 6-9 per cent during 2011-13 moderated to an average of 3.4 per cent in 2014-15(AprilDecember) on the back of lower food and fuel prices. During the first quarter of 2014-15, WPI headline inflation was at 5.8 per cent mainly because food and fuel prices continued to be high. In the second and third quarters of 2014-15, WPI inflation declined to 3.9 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively. WPI headline inflation declined by 0.4 per cent in January 2015 as compared to January 2014. WPI food inflation (weight: 24.3 per cent), which remained high at 9.4 per cent during 2013-14, moderated to 4.8 per cent during April-December 2014 following sharp correction in vegetables prices since December 2013 (except March 2014) and moderation in prices of cereals, eggs, meat and fish. As fuel has larger weight in the WPI, the decline in fuel prices led to a sharper reduction in the WPI as compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation in manufactured products has remained within a narrow range since 2013-14. 1.45 Retail inflation as measured by the CPI (combined) (base year 2010=100) had remained stubbornly sticky around 9-10 per cent during 2012-13 and 2013-14. Like the WPI inflation, CPI inflation has also moderated significantly since the second quarter of 2014-15, with moderation in inflation observed in all the three major subgroups, viz. food and beverages, and tobacco; fuel and light; and others. The CPI (combined) inflation

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 1.15 : Quarter-wise Inflation in CPI (base 2010=100) Broad Groups (in per cent) Weights

2013-14

2014-15

Q3 (P)

100.0

9.5

9.7

10.4

8.4

8.1

7.4

5.0

49.7

11.0

11.1

12.9

9.2

8.9

8.6

4.8

9.5

8.4

7.9

7.0

6.3

5.2

4.0

3.4

III. Others

40.8

7.9

8.2

8.0

7.9

7.6

6.7

5.5

Food (CFPI)

42.7

11.1

11.4

13.6

9.3

9.1

8.8

4.5

Core inflation (Non-food non-fuel)

42.9

8.0

8.2

8.1

8.0

7.7

6.8

5.7

General I.

Food and beverages & tobacco

II. Fuel and Light

Source: CSO.

P : Provisional.

declined to a low of 5 per cent in Q3 of 2014-15 (Table 1.15). As per the revised CPI (new series) with the base year 2012, headline CPI inflation stood at 5.1 per cent in January 2015. 1.46 The decline in inflation during the year turned out to be much faster than was anticipated in the initial months of the year. Global factors, namely persistent decline in crude prices, soft global prices of tradables, particularly edible oils and even coal, helped moderate headline inflation. The tight monetary policy was helpful in keeping the demand pressures contained, creating a buffer against any external shock, and keeping volatility in the value of the rupee under check. During the last one year, the rupee remained relatively stable vis-Ă -vis the major currencies, which too had sobering influence on inflation. Moderation in wage rate growth reduced demand pressures on proteinbased items. Base effect also contributed to the decline in headline inflation. Monetary Developments 1.47 The RBI kept policy rates unchanged during the year till January 2015. With the easing of inflationary conditions, the RBI has signalled softening of the monetary policy stance by cutting policy repo rates by 25 basis points to 7.75 percent in January 2015. Subsequently, the RBI also reduced the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) by 50 basis points from 22.0 per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) to 21.5 per cent. The

RBI adopted the new CPI (combined) as the measure of the nominal anchor - for policy communication from April 2014. 1.48 With a view to ensuring flexibility, transparency, and predictability in liquidity management operations, the Reserve Bank revised its liquidity management framework in September 2014. Liquidity conditions have remained broadly balanced during 2014-15 so far, except transient tight conditions. The revised liquidity management framework helped the weighted average cut-off rates in the fourteen-day term repo auctions as well as in the overnight variable rate repo auctions to remain close to the repo rate.

EXTERNAL SECTOR 1.49 After a turbulent initial phase in 2013-14, the outcome for the year as a whole was robust owing to the policies that were put in place to correct the extraordinary situation. A continuance of the robust external sector outcome through the current financial year facilitated the lifting of restrictions on gold and, in tandem with lower international prices of crude petroleum, helped usher in reform in diesel pricing. The lack of full pass-through of global crude petroleum prices to domestic diesel prices was a major factor in the elevated levels of twin deficits. Going forward, the robustness of the external outcome is on a sustainable reform anchor.

State of the Economy-An Overview

International Trade 1.50 Over the last ten years, India’s merchandise trade (on customs basis) increased manifold from US$ 195.1 billion in 2004-05 to US$ 764.6 billion in 2013-14 helping India’s share in global exports and imports improve from 0.8 per cent and 1.0 per cent respectively in 2004 to 1.7 per cent and 2.5 per cent in 2013. Its ranking amongst the leading exporters and importers improved from 30 and 23 in 2004 to 19 and 12 respectively in 2013. 1.51 After growing by 4.7 per cent in 2013-14, India’s merchandise exports growth moderated to 2.4 per cent to reach US$ 265 billion in 2014-15 (April-January). During 2013-14, India’s merchandise imports contracted by 8.3 per cent to US$ 450.2 billion. In 2014-15 (April-January), imports grew by 2.2 per cent to US$ 383.4 billion as compared to US$ 375.3 billion in 2013-14 (April-January). The value of petroleum, oil, and lubricants (POL) imports, which accounted for 36.6 per cent of India’s total imports in 2013-14, declined by 7.9 per cent in 2014-15 (AprilJanuary) as a result of decline in the price of international crude petroleum products. The growth in imports of POL was 5.9 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively in 2012-13 and 2013-14. Given the less than adequate pass-through, the level of POL imports continued to be elevated till the first quarter of the current financial year. There was moderation in international crude oil prices (Brent) from US$109.8 per barrel in the first quarter of 2014-15 to US$ 76.0 per barrel in the third quarter which resulted in the value of POL imports declining by 7.9 per cent in 2014-15 (AprilJanuary). 1.52 The share of gold and silver imports in India’s total imports was 11.4 per cent in 201213 and 7.4 per cent in 2013-14. Gold and silver imports that declined by 9.6 per cent and 40.4 per cent respectively in 2012-13 and 2013-14 grew by 8.0 per cent in 2014-15 (April-January). Capital goods imports declined continuously from 2011. Non-POL and non-gold and silver imports, which largely reflect the imports needed for

industrial activity, grew by 7.8 per cent in 201415 (April-January), after registering a decline of 0.7 per cent and 6.9 per cent respectively in 201213 and 2013-14. 1.53 Manufactured goods constituted the bulk of exports—over 63 per cent in recent years— followed by crude and petroleum products (including coal) with 20 per cent share and agriculture and allied products with 13.7 per cent share. After crossing US $ 300 billion in 201112, there has been significant deceleration in growth rates of exports which is somewhat a global phenomenon as global trade volumes have not picked up significantly since the 2011 Eurozone crisis. Growth in exports of petroleum and agriculture and allied products which were in positive territory for the last four years turned negative in 2014-15 (April-January). Gems and jewellery exports which exhibited a declining trend in 2012-13 and 2013-14, continued to decline in 2014-15 (April-January). Similarly, the decline in electronic goods exports since 2012-13 continued in 2014-15. During 2014-15 (April-January), some sectors like transport equipment; machinery and instruments; manufactures of metals; and ready-made garments registered positive growth in exports. Marine products and leather and leather manufactures recorded relatively higher growth in 2012-13, 2013-14, and 2014-15 (April-January). 1.54 There has been significant market diversification in India’s trade in recent years—a process that has helped cope with the sluggish global demand, which owes to a great extent to the weakness in the Eurozone. Region-wise, India’s export shares to Europe and America have declined over the years from 23.6 per cent and 20.1 per cent respectively in 2004-05 to 18.6 per cent and 17.2 per cent respectively in 2013-14. Conversely, shares of India’s exports to Asia and Africa have increased from 47.9 per cent and 6.7 per cent respectively in 2004-05 to 49.4 per cent and 9.9 per cent respectively in 2013-14. 1.55 In 2014-15 (April-January), trade deficit increased marginally by 1.6 per cent to US$ 118.4 billion as against US$ 116.5 billion in 2013-14

Economic Survey 2014-15

(April-January). Lower growth of exports (2.4 per cent) and imports (2.2 per cent) in 2014-15 (April-January) has resulted in a marginal increase of US $ 1.9 billion in the trade deficit. BoP 1.56 The widening of the current account deficit (CAD) in 2011-12 and 2012-13 owed to elevated levels of imports and its financing had implications in terms of larger outgo as investment income in the invisibles account. As a proportion of the level of CAD, such outgo rose from 28.2 per cent in 2007-08 to 72.6 per cent in 2013-14. One of the important considerations for reduction in CAD was that even with its full financing, the levels of CAD have a cascading impact through investment income outgo. 1.57 In the first half of 2014-15, India’s external-sector position was benign and comfortable. Two important developments were: (i) lower trade deficit along with moderate growth in invisibles that resulted in lower CAD and (ii) surge in capital inflows, enabled by higher portfolio investment, foreign direct investment (FDI), and external commercial borrowings (ECB). 1.58 Capital inflows were in excess of the financing requirement of the CAD and resulted in accretion in foreign exchange reserves. The CAD was placed at US $ 17.9 billion in 2014-15 (AprilSeptember) as against US $ 26.9 billion in the same period of 2013-14. As a proportion of GDP, the CAD declined from 3.1 per cent in the first half of 2013-14 to 1.9 per cent in the first half of 2014-15. Net financial flow was at US$ 36.0 billion in the first half of 2014-15 compared to US$ 16.3 billion in the first half of 2013-14. Net foreign investment surged from US$ 7.8 billion in 2013-14 (April-September) to US$ 38.4 billion in 2014-15 (April-September). Net ECB also improved from US$ 2.5billion in 2013-14 (AprilSeptember) to US$ 3.4 billion in 2014-15 (AprilSeptember). Net banking capital witnessed a decline from US$ 11.5 billion to US $(-) 0.5 billion during the same period. With net capital flows remaining higher than the CAD, there was net accretion of US$ 18.1 billion to India’s foreign

exchange reserves (on BoP basis) in H1 of 201415 as against a drawdown of US$ 10.7 billion in H1 of 2013-14. 1.59 Among the major economies with a CAD, India is the second largest foreign exchange reserve holder after Brazil. India’s foreign exchange reserves at US$ 330.2 billion as on 6 February 2015 mainly comprised foreign currency assets amounting to US$ 305.0 billion, accounting for about 92.5 per cent of the total. With increase in reserves in the first half of 2014-15, all reservebased traditional external sector vulnerability indicators have improved. For instance, the ratio of short-term external debt to reserves declined from 29.3 per cent at end-March 2014 to 27.5 per cent as at end-September 2014 and the reserve cover for imports also increased from 7.8 months at end-March 2014 to 8.1 months as at endSeptember 2014. 1.60 The rupee-US dollar exchange rate has remained broadly stable during the year thanks to the huge inflow of FDI and foreign institutional investment (FII) in the equity and bond markets. Due to the weak economic outlook in Europe and Japan, the rupee has appreciated against the euro and yen since September 2014 in tandem with cross-currency movements of the euro and yen vis-à-vis the US dollar. On point-to-point basis the rupee has depreciated by 3.3 per cent from the level of ` 60.10 per US dollar on 28 March 2014 to ` 61.76 per US dollar on 13 February 2015. The rupee touched a low of ` 63.75 per US dollar on 30 December 2014 and a peak of ` 58.43 per US dollar on 19 May 2014. External Debt 1.61 India’s external debt stock increased by US$ 13.7 billion (3.1 per cent) to US$ 455.9 billion at end-September 2014 over the end-March 2014level. The rise in external debt was on account of higher long-term debt particularly commercial borrowings and non-resident Indian (NRI) deposits. The maturity profile of India’s external debt indicates the dominance of long-term borrowings. At end-September 2014, long-term debt accounted for 81.1 per cent of the total

State of the Economy-An Overview

external debt as against 79.8 per cent at end-March 2014. Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s external debt has remained within manageable limits as indicated by the external debt to GDP ratio of 23.5 per cent and debt service ratio of 5.9 per cent in 2013-14. The prudent external debt management policy of the Government of India has helped maintain a comfortable external debt position.

OUTLOOK

FOR

2015-16

1.62 The macroeconomic situation in India has improved significantly during the current year. The release of the new series of national accounts revealed that the economy has been performing much better than what was being depicted earlier. The steady acceleration in services and manufacturing growth in the face of subdued global demand conditions point to the strengthening of domestic demand. Most of the buoyancy in domestic demand can be traced to consumption. Investment activity, which is slowly picking up, needs to be grounded on a stronger footing. The savings-investment dynamics will be crucial for the growth to strengthen further in the coming years, in addition to reversal of the subdued export performance being currently witnessed. The key will be the response of savings to improved price and financial market stability, and of investment, particularly in the crucial infrastructure sector, to reform efforts of the Government that are underway. 1.63 On the supply side, there are concerns about tentative growth patterns in construction and mining activities that need to be addressed to. This is particularly important in view of the strong intersectoral linkages that these sectors have. The farm sector suffered from a relatively poor monsoon, but there are no indications of its spillover to be next year. The improving rate of value addition in the economy, represented by the ratio of value added to output, and the falling incremental capital output ratio indicate better resource use in production. 1.64 On the global front, the United States radiates confidence and strength, while some other structurally important economies like China,

Russia, Euro area and Japan face uncertain prospects, thereby affecting global growth and investment outlook. The sharp decline in oil prices has provided an incentive for overall global growth and stability. At the same time, it has diminished fortunes of oil exporting countries that can influence economic activity adversely. 1.65 In the light of the Governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s commitment to reforms, along with the improvements in the price and external sector scenarios including the possibility of international oil prices remaining generally benign, the outlook for domestic macroeconomic parameters is generally optimistic, notwithstanding the uncertainties that could also arise from an increase in the interest rates in the United States and situation prevailing in Greece within Euro-zone. Given the above, and assuming normal monsoons better prospects in the world economy that could provide impetus to higher exports for Indian products and services, a growth of around 8.5 per cent is in the realm of possibility in 2015-16.

SECTORAL DEVELOPMENTS Agriculture 1.66 During the Tenth Plan, the contribution of agriculture and allied sectors to the GDP (at 200405 prices) of the country was 19 per cent and it declined to 15.2 per cent during the Eleventh Plan. This is in accordance with the typical past pattern of structural transformation of the economies in transition. Agriculture and allied sectors registered a growth of 2.5 per cent in the Ninth Plan, 2.4 per cent in Tenth Plan, and 4.1 per cent in the Eleventh Plan. 1.67 For the year 2013-14, total foodgrain production has been estimated at 265.6 million tonnes, which is higher by 8.5 million tonnes than the previous yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s production and 22.1 million tonnes than the average production of foodgrains during the last five years. As per the second AE released by the Ministry of Agriculture on 18 February 2015, total production of foodgrains during 2014-15 is estimated at 257.1 million tonnes.

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 1.16 : Agriculture Sector: Key Indicators (per cent at current prices) Item

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Share of agriculture & allied sectors in total GVA

18.4

18.0

Crops

12.0

11.7

11.8

Livestock

4.0

3.9

Forestry and logging

1.6

1.5

1.4

Fishing

0.8

0.9

Share of agriculture & allied Sectors in total GCF

8.6

7.7

7.9

Crops

7.4

6.5

6.6

Livestock

0.8

0.7

Forestry and logging

0.1

Fishing

0.4

0.5

18.3

15.5

14.8

GCF in agriculture & allied sectors as per cent to GVA of the sector (at current prices) Source : CSO.

1.68 The following are some of the challenges and policy recommendations for Indian agriculture:



Distortions emerging from various policies, including exempting user charges for electricity and water should be removed.



For providing efficient advance price discovery to farmers and enabling them to hedge price risk, the Forward Markets Commission should be strengthened and empowered to regulate the market more effectively.



Agriculture and food sectors need huge investment in research, education, extension, irrigation, fertilizers, and laboratories to test soil, water, and commodities, and warehousing and cold storage. Rationalization of subsidies and better targeting of subsidies would generate part of the resources for public investment.  There are wide differences in yields between states. Even the best of states have much lower yield in different crops when compared to the best in the world. This provides ample opportunity to increase production by bridging the yield gap to the extent feasible within the climatic zone.  Providing irrigation can improve yield substantially, as vast cropped area is still unirrigated. For a shift in production function, investment in basic research would be necessary.  Recommendations of the Shanta Kumar Committee provide useful suggestions for the future road-map of food policy. Every effort should be made to bring states on board for creating a national common market for agricultural commodities.

Industrial, Corporate, and Infrastructure Performance 1.69 As per recently released national accounts data, with 2011-12 as the base year, industrial growth was much better in 2012-13 and 201314 at 2.4 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively than earlier estimated, with 2004-05 as the base year. The declining trend was attributed to moderation in domestic demand, inflationary pressures, increase in input costs, and slowdown in the world economy. Further, the 1.4 per cent growth in GCF in industry in 2013-14 implies that recovery in industrial growth had commenced last year. 1.70 The industrial growth picture as per the IIP suggests that industrial production which had slowed down since 2011-12, reversed the trend in 2014-15. In terms of use-based classification

State of the Economy-An Overview

of the IIP, basic goods and capital goods witnessed marked improvement in growth during AprilDecember 2014-15. While the growth in intermediate goods remained sluggish, consumer goods contracted in April-December 2014-15, particularly due to contraction in the consumer durables sector. 1.71 Growth in infrastructure, based on an index of eight core industries, has improved slightly to 4.4 per cent during April-December 2014-15 as compared to 4.1 per cent in the same period in 2013-14. The performance of coal, electricity, and cement has shown marked improvement, steel and refinery products have grown marginally by 1.6 per cent and 0.2 per cent, while crude oil, gas, and fertilizers have seen negative growth. In the transport sector, growth in the first nine months of 2014-15 has improved in railway freight (5.1 per cent), domestic air passenger traffic (7.1 per cent), international passenger traffic (10.3 per cent), international cargo (8.3 per cent), domestic cargo (19.3 per cent), and cargo throughput at major and non-major ports (6.8 per cent)as compared to the same period in the 2013-14. 1.72 The performance of listed manufacturing companies in the private sector in terms of growth of sales and net profit appeared to turn around in Q1 2014-15. However, the performance in Q2 2014-15 dampened expectations of sustained improvement. There is no discernible improvement in capacity utilization in the first two quarters of 2014-15, as per the RBI’s twenty-seventh round of the Order Books, Inventories, and Capacity Utilization Survey. 1.73 Of the total 246 central infrastructure projects costing Rs 1000 crore and above, 124 are delayed with respect to the latest schedule and 24 have reported additional delays vis-à-vis the date of completion reported in the previous month (Flash Report for October 2014, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation). 1.74 All the other major industrial sectors except mining have witnessed slowdown in the growth of credit in 2014-15 as compared to 2013-14. The growth of credit flow to the manufacturing sector

at 13.3 per cent in 2014-15 is lower than the growth of 25.4 per cent in 2013-14. Chemicals, food processing, and textiles have seen a sharp decline in growth of credit in 2014-15. 1.75 During April-November 2014-15, total FDI inflows (including equity inflows, reinvested earnings, and other capital) were US$ 27.4 billion, while FDI equity inflows were US$ 18.9 billion. Cumulative FDI inflows from April 2000 to November 2014 were US$ 350.9 billion. Services, construction, telecommunications, computer software and hardware, drugs and pharmaceuticals, automobile industry, chemicals, and power have attracted a disproportionately high share of total inflows. Services Sector 1.76 India’s services sector remains the major driver of economic growth contributing 72.4 per cent of GDP growth in 2014-15. Services-sector growth has increased from 8.0 per cent in 201213 to 9.1 per cent in 2013-14 and further to 10.6 per cent in 2014-15. This is mainly due to growth acceleration in financial, real estate, and professional services to 13.7 per cent from 7.9 per cent and public administration, defence, and other services to 9.0 per cent from 7.9 per cent in the previous year. Growth in trade, hotels, transport, communication, and related services was 8.4 per cent in 2014-15 compared to 11.1 per cent in 2013-14. Data available for the beginning months of 2015 indicates pick-up in the services sector with expansion in business activity as indicated by services PMI data. This growth momentum is expected to continue in 2015-16. 1.77 The services sector is also the dominant sector in most of the states of India with a more than 40 per cent share in the gross state domestic product (GSDP) in 2013-14 for almost all states. This sector has made substantial contribution to FDI inflows, exports, and employment. During the last twelve years, with a compound annual growth average (CAGR) of 8.7 per cent, India had the second fastest growing services sector, just below China’s 10.7 per cent. In commercial services

Economic Survey 2014-15

exports, India had the highest CAGR of 20 per cent during this period. India’s share in global exports of commercial services increased to 3.2 per cent in 2013 from 1.2 per cent in 2000. Its ranking among the leading exporters in 2013 was sixth. In the first half of 2014-15, services exports grew by 3.7 per cent to US$ 75.9 billion and import of services grew by 5.0 per cent to US$ 39.9 billion, resulting in net services growth of only 2.4 per cent. The services value-added content in exports has also been rising. India is very active in the services negotiations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and has recently provided more liberal offers to least developed countries. 1.78 Among the sub-sectors, computer and related services with a share of 3.3 per cent in India’s GDP grew by 14.4 per cent in 2013-14. The contribution of tourism to total income and employment of the country during 2012-13 was 6.9 per cent and 12.5 per cent respectively. In 2014, foreign tourist arrivals and foreign exchange earnings increased by 7.1 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively. Banking and Insurance 1.79 Asset quality of banks showed some signs of stress during the year. The gross non-performing advances (NPAs) of scheduled commercial banks (SCB) as a percentage of the total gross advances increased to 4.5 per cent in September 2014 from 4.1 per cent in March 2014. Stressed advances increased to 10.7 per cent of the total advances from 10.0 per cent between March and September 2014. RBI has taken a number of steps to resolve the NPA issue. 1.80 The growth of aggregate deposits of SCBs decelerated during 2014-15 till December mainly due to base effect, i.e. high accretion to NRI deposits last year during September-November and lower deposit mobilization during this year. The growth in non-food credit also decelerated. 1.81 To achieve the objective of financial inclusion, the Pradhan Mantri Jan-Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) was launched on 28 August 2014. The Yojana envisages universal access to banking

facilities with at least one basic banking account for every household. The scheme is expected to provide a big push to the Direct Transfer Benefit scheme. 1.82 The year 2014-15 saw other reform initiatives in the banking and insurance sector, which include allowing banks to raise capital from the market to meet capital adequacy norms by diluting the government’s stake up to 52 per cent and notifying of an ordinance to enhance the foreign equity cap in the insurance sector. 1.83 Equity markets continued to do well during the year. The benchmark indices BSE Sensex and Nifty showed a general upward trend in the current year. A number of steps such as improvement in corporate governance norms and establishment of foreign portfolio investor (FPI) regulation framework were taken by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to improve functioning of both primary and secondary markets. Social Infrastructure, Employment, and Human Development 1.84 India is projected to be the youngest nation in the world by 2020. While this provides great opportunities, it also poses challenges before the nation. India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has been steadily declining and is currently at 2.3 although state-wise disparities exist. As per Sample Registration System (SRS) data for 2013, there has been a gradual decline in the share of population in the age group 0-14 from 41.2 to 38.1 per cent during 1971 to 1981 and from 36.3 to 28.4 percent during 1991 to 2013, whereas the economically active population (15-59 years) has increased from 53.4 to 56.3 per cent during 1971 to 1981 and from 57.7 to 63.3 per cent during 1991 to 2013. Of concern is the secular decline in the child sex ratio (CSR). A new scheme, Beti Bachao Beti Padhao, for promoting survival, protection, and education of the girl child was launched in January 2015. It aims to address the declining CSR through a mass campaign targeted at changing social mindset and creating greater awareness.

State of the Economy-An Overview

1.85 In 2020 the average age of Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population at around 29 years is expected to be among the lowest in the world. Consequently, while the global economy is expected to witness a shortage of young population of around 56 million by 2020, India will be the only country with a youth surplus of 47 million. These young people need to be healthy, suitably educated, and appropriately skilled to contribute optimally to the economy 1.86 Educational Challenges: While only 73 per cent literacy has been achieved (Census 2011), there is marked improvement in female literacy. Male literacy at 80.9 per cent is still higher than female literacy at 64.6 per cent but the latter increased by 10.9 percentage points compared to the 5.6 percentage points for the former. Total enrolment in primary schools has declined in 201314 while upper primary enrolment has grown. This is in line with the demographic changes in the age structure. However, the overall standard of the education system is well below global standards. The single most significant finding of the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) is that learning levels across the country, whether in public or private schools, have not improved. Clearly, the policy prescription lies in shifting attention away from inputs to outcomes and focus on building quality education and skill development infrastructure. The Padhe Bharat Badhe Bharat initiative to create a base for reading, writing, and math fluency is a good step in this direction. 1.87 Skilling the Youth: As per the Labour Bureau Report 2014, the current size of Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s formally skilled workforce is small, approximately 2 per cent; this number compares poorly with smaller countries like South Korea and Japan which report figures of 96 and 80 per cent respectively. At all-India level, around 6.8 per cent of persons aged 15 years and above are reported to have received/are receiving vocational training. As per the National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC), for the period between 2013 and 2022 there is an incremental requirement of 120 million skilled persons in the non-farm sector. A dedicated Department of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship has been

createdfor focused attention to skill development. Besides, skilling of rural youth has now been refocused and reprioritized towards building the capacity of poor rural youth. New programmes have also been started for bringing minorities into mainstream development. 1.88 Sluggish employment growth: A cause for concern is deceleration in the CAGR of employment during 2004-05 to 2011-12 to 0.5 per cent from 2.8 per cent during 1999-2000 to 2004-05 as against CAGRs of 2.9 per cent and 0.4 per cent in the labour force respectively for the same two periods. During 1999-2000 to 200405, employment on usual status (US) basis increased by 59.9 million persons from 398.0 million to 457.9 million as against the increase in labour force by 62.0 million persons from 407.0 million to 469.0 million. After a period of slow progress during 2004-05 to 2009-10, employment generation picked up during 2009-10 to 201112, adding 13.9 million persons to the workforce, but not keeping pace with the increase in labour force (14.9 million persons). A major impediment to the pace of quality employment generation in India is the small share of manufacturing in total employment. However data from the sixty-eighth National Sample Survey (NSS) round indicates a revival in employment growth in manufacturing from 11 per cent in 2009-10 to 12.6 per cent in 2011-12. Promoting growth of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME) is critical from this perspective. 1.89 Labour Reforms: Multiplicity of labour laws and difficulty in their compliance has been an impediment to industrial development. In a major initiative for bringing compliance in the system and ensuring ease of doing business, a set of labour reform measures has been put forth by the government. 1.90 Towards a Healthy India: The Swachh Bharat Mission (Gramin) launched in October 2014, aims at attaining an Open Defecation Free India by 2 October 2019. Besides, Mission Indradhanush launched in December 2014 will cover all children by 2020 who are either unvaccinated or are partially vaccinated against

Economic Survey 2014-15

seven vaccine-preventable diseases. The erstwhile Department of AYUSH (Ayurveda,Yoga and Naturopathy, Unani, Siddhi, and Homoeopathy) has now been elevated to a full-fledged Ministry. 1.91 Poverty: The latest estimates of poverty are available for the year 2011-12. These estimates have been made following the Tendulkar Committee methodology using household consumption expenditure survey data. For 201112, the percentage of persons living below the poverty line is estimated as 25.7 percent in rural areas, 13.7 percent in urban areas, and 21.9 percent for the country as a whole 1.92 Human Development: International Comparison: The 2014 Human Development Report (HDR) presents the Human Development Index (HDI)—values and ranks—for 187 countries. India’s HDI value for 2013 is 0.586, ranking it 135 out of 187 countries and territories, the lowest among the BRICS countries with Russia at 57, Brazil at 79, China at 91, and South Africa at118, and slightly ahead of Bangladesh and Pakistan. India also ranks low with respect to the Gender Development Index (GDI). The GDI value for India is 0.828 and it is ranked 132 among 148 nations. In comparison, Bangladesh and China are ranked higher. 1.93 Fostering Inclusive Growth: The PMJDY launched in August 2014 and the RuPay Card, which is a payment solution, are important new measures for financial inclusion. Besides, the government has restructured a number of ongoing programmes based on field experience to make them need based. To facilitate coordinated functioning of various social infrastructure and human development programmes, the Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojna (SAGY) has been launched which will be implemented through convergence of existing programmes. Another scheme launched is the Vanbandhu Kalyan Yojna that will be implemented in one block of each of the ten states having schedule V areas. Given the multiple schemes implemented to foster inclusive growth, the role of Panchayati Raj institutions is critical and there is need to strengthen the panchayats and urban local governments. RBI data on social

services shows that there was a consistent rise in absolute social-sector expenditure by the general government (centre+state) even in the time of the 2008-09 global crisis and 2011-12 Euro area crisis. 1.94 A unique feature of India is the lag in demographic transition between different states. Due to the substantial fertility decline in the south during the last two decades, the south is ahead in the demographic transition compared to the north. For instance, the projected average age of population in 2020 of 29 years has already been surpassed in some states like Kerala (33 years), Goa (32.3), Tamil Nadu (31.3), Himachal Pradesh (30.4), Punjab (29.9), Andhra Pradesh (29.3) and West Bengal (29.1). Climate Change Development

and

Sustainable

1.95 The year 2015 is likely to be a momentous year with the world set to witness new agreements on climate change and sustainable development. This will determine the course for international development and environmental policy agenda for the global community for the next fifteen years. The negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are expected to result in a global agreement by December 2015, applicable to all countries to take action on climate change from 2020. Simultaneously, the governments are due to agree to a new post-2015 development agenda including a set of sustainable development goals (SDGs), replacing the Millennium Development Goals, which are coming to an end in 2015. 1.96 The latest scientific findings (IPCC AR5) have estimated that to remain below 2°C, the world can emit only about 2900 giga-tonne (Gt) of CO2 from all sources from the industrial revolution till 2100. Till 2011, the world has already emitted 1900 Gt of CO2 and consumed around two-third of this budget. This means that out of the budget of 2900 Gt, only 1000 Gt remains to be used between now and 2100. The key issue therefore for designing emission reduction commitment is how we should allocate this

State of the Economy-An Overview

remaining sparse carbon budget between countries in a manner which is both fair and achievable. 1.97 There are substantial variations in total and per capita emissions of different countries. In terms of absolute CO2 emissions in 2013, China, the USA, and EU hold the first three positions respectively with India a distant fourth. However, in terms of per capita CO2 emissions in 2013, countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa fall in the bottom 100 among 196 countries. 1.98 As a responsible country India has on its own chalked out policies on sustainable development and climate change. India was one of the early adopters of a National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). It is now revisiting National Missions under the NAPCC in the light of new scientific information and technological advances with a view to undertaking additional interventions in areas like greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in power generation, other renewable energy technology programmes, and disaster management and exploring possibilities of new missions on wind energy, health, and waste to energy. Efforts are also under way by the government to build India’s institutional capacity for mobilizing climate change finance. A National Adaptation Fund with an initial corpus of ` 100 crore has been set up to support adaptation actions to combat the challenges of climate change in sectors like agriculture, water, and forestry. Other recent key initiatives include scaling up of the Solar Mission fivefold from 20,000 megawatts to 100,000 megawatts requiring an additional investment of US$ 100 billion, development of 100 Smart Cities with integrated policies for sustainable development, and preparations for developing a National Air Quality Index and a National Air Quality Scheme. 1.99 The challenge for India is manifold. India is at the threshold of an urban flare-up. As population increases, demand for every key service

will increase five-to sevenfold. These trends combined with the current challenges of poverty eradication, food and energy security, urban waste management, and water scarcity will put further pressure on our limited resources which will add to greater energy needs and cause a parallel increase in emission if decoupling does not take place. At the same time, hidden in this challenge are great opportunities. Unlike many countries, India has a young population and therefore can reap the fruits of demographic dividend. With more than half of the India of 2030 yet to be built, we have an opportunity to avoid excessive dependence on fossil fuel-based energy systems and carbon lock-ins that many industrialized countries face today. A conscious policy framework which takes into account both developmental needs and environmental considerations could help turn the challenges into opportunities. 1.100 The sum up, as we put our acts together towards a post-2015 global agreement on climate change, it is absolutely critical to ensure that the new agreement is comprehensive, balanced, equitable, and pragmatic. It should address the genuine requirements of developing countries like India by providing them equitable carbon and development space to achieve sustainable development and eradicate poverty. To achieve this, adherence to the principles and provisions of the UNFCCC is the key. Importantly, global climate action rests heavily on the means of implementation, especially on finance and technology, which needs to be addressed adequately in the agreement. As India’s Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi said in the UN General Assembly in September 2014, “We should be honest in shouldering our responsibilities in meeting the challenges. The world community has agreed on a beautiful balance of collective action—common but differentiated responsibilities. That should form the basis of continued action.”

Public Finance

CHAPTER

Outlining the roadmap for fiscal consolidation, the Budget for 2014-15 envisaged a fiscal deficit target at 4.1 per cent of GDP and sought to reduce it further to 3 per cent of GDP by 2016-17. Achieving this target is daunting in the backdrop of only a moderate increase in indirect taxes and a large subsidy bill despite significant decline in the subsidies burden in 2014-15, mainly due to lower prices of crude oil in the international market in the second half of 2014-15. Considering the fact that the desired fiscal targets in the previous two years were achieved by counterbalancing the shortfall of tax revenue by a higher or equivalent cut in expenditure, the challenge in the current year was to achieve the deficit targets without resorting to a cut in public expenditure. Therefore, while the fiscal deficit in the Budget 2014-15 was retained at the interim budget level, additional resources were provided in sync with the objective of the government to meet its social and welfare commitments and to remain focused on the development agenda. It is noteworthy that the government remains committed to fiscal consolidation. However, should the revenues not pick up sufficiently, there is need to persist with some compression in expenditure, so as to meet the deficit target.

2.2 The Budget for 2014-15 sought to contain the fiscal deficit at ` 5,31,177 crore (4.1 per cent of gross domestic product—GDP1) against ` 5,08,148 crore (4.5 per cent of GDP) in 201314 (Provisional Actuals —PA). Revenue deficit (RD) was placed at ` 3,78,348 crore (2.9 per cent of GDP) in 2014-15 (Budget Estimates— BE) against ` 3,60,311 crore (3.2 per cent of GDP) in 2013-14 (PA). The effective RD, a refined version of RD that captures the shortfall in current receipts over current expenditure and is equal to the difference between the RD and grants given for creation of capital assets, was also expected to come down (Table 2.1). 1

Table 2.1 : Trends in Deficit of Central Government (as per cent of GDP) 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 PA 2014-15 BE

GCC

ERD

4.8 5.7 4.8 4.5 4.1

3.2 4.4 3.6 3.2 2.9

1.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.3

2.1 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.6

1.8 2.7 1.8 1.2 0.8

Source : Budget Documents. Notes : FD= Fiscal Deficit, RD= Revenue Deficit, GCC=Grants for Creation of Capital Assets ERD= Effective Revenue Deficit, PD=Primary Deficit, BE= Budget Estimates, PA= Provisional Actuals The ratios to GDP at current market prices are based on the Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) National Accounts 2004-05 Series.

For calculating ratios with respect to GDP at current market price, we have used National Accounts series of 200405 prices released by CSO.

Public Finance

FISCAL POLICY

FOR

2014-15

2.3 At the time of presentation of the Budget for 2014-15, as per the then available information, the macroeconomic outlook was mixed. Growth had been sub-par for two years 2012-13 and 2013-14 and inflation was moderating gradually, reflecting the compression in aggregate demand and a robust external sector outcome. The Budget for 2014-15 had indicated that while containing the fiscal deficit at 4.1 per cent of GDP was a daunting challenge given the then macroeconomic conjecture, it outlined the importance of adherence to fiscal consolidation and it accepted the challenge. The fiscal consolidation plan as enunciated in BE 2014-15 entailed an increase in the tax to GDP and non-debt receipts to GDP ratios to 10.6 per cent and 9.8 per cent respectively and a continuance of the low level of total expenditure to GDP ratio at 13.9 per cent (Table 2.2 and Figure 2.1 ). The envisaged growth in gross tax revenue (GTR) was 17.7 per cent over Revised Estimates (RE) 2013-14 and 19.8 per cent over PA 2013-14. Total expenditure was estimated to increase by 12.9 per cent and 14.8 per cent in BE 2014-15 over RE 2013-14 and PA 2013-14 respectively. The expectation of better performance of gross tax revenue vis-Ă -vis total expenditure, resulted in a projection of decline

Source : Budget Document and CSO.

in fiscal deficit to 4.1 per cent of GDP in BE 2014-15.

TRENDS IN REVENUE Non-debt Receipts 2.4 Typically, certain assumptions have to be made about the overall macroeconomic outcome, growth in revenues, and at the levels of expenditure that could yield the desired fiscal target. The Budget for 2014-15 envisaged a growth of 18.6 per cent over RE 2013-14 in non-debt receipts which include tax revenue net to centre, non-tax revenue, and non-debt capital receipts (mainly recovery of loans and disinvestment receipts). Revenue receipts

Table 2.2 : Trends in Receipts and Expenditure of Central Government as a Ratio of GDP 2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14 PA

2014-15 BE

1. Revenue receipts

10.1

8.3

8.7

8.9

9.2

Gross tax revenue

10.2

9.9

10.2

10.0

10.6

5.2

6.1

5.3

4.8

4.7

3. Non-debt receipts

10.6

8.8

9.1

9.3

9.8

4. Total receipts

15.4

14.5

13.9

13.8

13.9

5. Total expenditure

15.4

14.5

13.9

13.8

13.9

13.4

12.7

12.3

12.1

12.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.8

10.5

9.9

9.8

9.5

4.9

4.6

4.1

4.0

4.5

2. Capital receipts

(a) Revenue expenditure (b) Capital expenditure (A) Non-Plan expenditure (B) Plan expenditure

Source : Budget Document and CSO. Note : GDP at current market prices is at 2004-05 base. PA= Provisional Actuals, BE=Budget Estimates.

Economic Survey 2014-15

were estimated at ` 11.90 lakh crore in BE 201415, of which the net tax revenue to the centre was ` 9.77 lakh crore and non-tax revenue was ` 2.12 lakh crore. The total non-debt receipts inclusive of non-debt capital receipts of ` 0.74 lakh crore were estimated at ` 12.64 lakh crore.

TAX REVENUE 2.5 In the immediate post-Fiscal Reforms and Budget Management Act 2003 (FRBMA) period (2004-05 to 2007-08) significant fiscal consolidation was achieved largely due to growth in tax revenues. Post-2008 crisis, growth in overall gross tax revenue (GTR) as well as its major components (with the exception of personal income tax) was not buoyant enough to facilitate encore performance in terms of revenue-led fiscal consolidation. The Budget for 2014-15 envisaged a growth of 15.8 per cent and 20.3 per cent in direct taxes and indirect taxes respectively over RE 2013-14. The growth in direct and indirect taxes along with the growth of GDP-CMP (GDP

Source : Budget documents, CSO & CGA.

at current market prices) is plotted in Figure 2.2 A, indicating that the growth in indirect taxes has not been in tandem with the growth in GDP_CMP. The Budget for 2014-15 estimated GDP growth of 13.4 per cent and growth in GTR at 19.8 per cent over PA 2013-14 which implies a tax buoyancy of 1.5. This seems to be an overestimation, given the trends in GDP growth and growth in GTR (for details see the Mid Year Economic Analysis 2014-15). 2.6 The composition of GTR has been plotted in Figure 2.2 B, indicating that from 2010-11 to 2012-13 the share of indirect taxes had been increasing mainly on account of the growing share of service taxes (average annual growth of 31.6 during 2010-13). As a proportion of GDP, direct and indirect taxes estimated at 5.7 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively in 2014-15 (BE), were slightly higher than the 5.6 per cent and 4.6 per cent respectively in 2013-14 (RE). The total direct and indirect taxes for 2014-15 were estimated at ` 7.3 lakh crore and ` 6.2 lakh crore respectively (Table 2.3).

Source : Budget documents & CGA.

Table 2.3 : Sources of Tax Revenue (in ` lakh crore) GTR

UNE

2010-11

7.93

2.99

1.39

1.36

1.38

0.71

2011-12

8.89

3.23

1.64

1.49

1.45

0.98

2012-13

10.36

3.56

1.97

1.65

1.76

1.33

2013-14 PA

11.39

3.95

2.38

1.72

1.69

1.55

2014-15 BE

13.65

4.51

2.78

2.02

2.06

2.16

Source : Budget documents & CGA. Notes : GTR= Gross Tax Revenue, CT= Corporation Tax, IT= Income Tax, CD= Custom Duty, UNE= Union Excise Duty, ST= Service Tax.

Public Finance

2.7 While the rates of growth of tax revenues envisaged by BE 2014-15 might look optimistic given the outcome in the first nine months of the current fiscal, it might be instructive to note that growth in excise duties and service tax was 21.4 per cent and 36.0 per cent respectively in 201213. As such, given the low base effect (of low growth), these assumptions were not that optimistic. These were premised on the expected better macroeconomic outcome and endeavour at broadening the tax base and providing an

equitable tax regime that has been the underlying theme of the tax policy of the government. Several measures were initiated for both direct and indirect taxes which are enumerated in Box 2.1. Even within the limited fiscal space, several important and path-breaking initiatives for reviving the economy and promoting investment in the manufacturing sector were taken, and measures for rationalizing tax provisions so as to reduce litigation were introduced through the Finance (No.2) Act 2014.

Box 2.1 : Measures Introduced in Budget 2014-15 DIRECT TAXES  Budget 2014-15 raised the basic exemption limit of personal income tax in case of every individual (below the

age of 60 years), or Hindu undivided family (HUF) or association of persons or body of individuals, whether incorpo-rated or not, or every artificial juridical person from ` 2 lakh to ` 2.5 lakh. The basic exemption limit in the case of an individual resident in India, who is of the age of 60 years or more but less than 80 years was raised from ` 2.5 lakh to ` 3 lakh.  Investment allowance at the rate of 15 per cent of the cost of new plant and machinery extended up to 31.03.2017

and threshold of investment reduced to `25 crore.  Ten-year tax holiday extended to undertakings which begin generation, distribution, and transmission of power

by 31.03.2017.  Income to foreign portfolio investors arising from transactions in securities to be treated as capital gains.  Concessional tax rate of 15 per cent on foreign dividends without any sunset date to be continued.  The eligible date of borrowing in foreign currency extended from 30.06.2015 to 30.06.2017 for a concessional tax

rate of 5 per cent on interest payments. Tax incentive extended to all types of long-term bonds instead of only long-term infrastructure bonds.  Introduction of a ‘roll back’ provision in the Advanced Pricing Agreement (APA) scheme so that an APA

entered into for future transactions is also applicable to international transactions undertaken in the previous four years in specified circumstances.  Introduction of range concept for determination of arm’s length price in transfer pricing regulations.  Use of multiple-year data allowed for comparability analysis under transfer pricing regulations.  Resident taxpayers enabled to obtain an advance ruling in respect of their income tax liability above a defined

threshold.  The scope of the Income-tax Settlement Commission enlarged.

INDIRECT TAXES A. CUSTOMS Agriculture/agro processing/plantation sector: full exemption from customs duty granted to de-oiled soya extract, groundnut oil cake/oil cake meal, etc. up to 31.12.2014. Basic customs duty (BCD) reduced in the chemicals and petrochemicals sector. Energy sector: The duty structure on non-agglomerated coal of various types rationalized at 2.5% BCD and 2% countervailing duties (CVD). Textiles and Exports: The duty free entitlement for import of trimmings and embellishments used by the readymade textile garment sector for manufacture of garments for export increased from 3% to 5%. (Contd...)

Economic Survey 2014-15

Box 2.1 : Measures Introduced in Budget 2014-15 (Contd...) Metals: The BCD on certain stainless steel flat products increased from 5% to 7.5%. Export duty on bauxite increased from 10% to 20%. Precious Metals: BCD on half-cut or broken diamonds increased from NIL to 2.5% and on cut and polished diamonds and coloured gemstones increased from 2% to 2.5%. Electronics/Hardware: BCD on LCD and LED TV panels of below 19 inches and on colour picture tubes for manufacture of cathode ray TVs reduced from 10% to NIL. Education cess and Secondary and Higher Education (SHE) cess levied on imported electronic products. Renewable Energy: BCD reduced for equipment used in wind-operated electricity generators and. solar energy production projects. Health: Full exemption from customs and excise duty provided for HIV/AIDS drugs and diagnostic kits imported under the National AIDS Control Programme funded by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria. B. EXCISE Agriculture/agro processing/plantation sector: Excise duty on machinery for the preparation of meat, poultry, etc. reduced from 10% to 6%. Metals: Excise duty on winding wires of copper increased from 10% to 12%. Textiles: Excise duty at the rate of 2% (without central value added tax—CENVAT) or 6% (with CENVAT) imposed on polyester staple fibre and polyester filament yarn manufactured from plastic waste or scrap or plastic waste. Health: Excise duty on cigarettes increased by 72% for cigarettes of length not exceeding 65 mm and by 11% to 21% for cigarettes of other lengths. Similar increases made on cigars, cheroots, and cigarillos. Basic excise duty s increased from 12% to 16% on pan masala, from 50% to 55% on unmanufactured tobacco, and from 60% to 70% on jarda-scented tobacco, gutkha, and chewing tobacco. Full exemption from excise duty provided to DDT manufactured by Hindustan Insecticides Limited for supply to the National Vector Borne Diseases Control Programme (NVBDCP) of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Electronics/hardware: Excise duty on recorded smart cards increased from 2% without CENVAT and 6% with CENVAT to a uniform rate of 12%. Renewable energy: Full exemption from excise duty provided for machinery required for setting up of solar energy production projects and compressed biogas plant (Bio-CNG). Energy sector: Central excise duty on branded petrol reduced from `7.50 per litre to ` 2.35 per litre, so as to reduce the price differential between branded and unbranded petrol. Rate of clean energy cess levied on coal, lignite, and peat increased from `50 per tonne to ` 100 per tonne. C. SERVICE TAX Negative list of services and service tax exemptions were reviewed for broadening the tax base and also as a preparation for introduction of the goods and services tax (GST). Services like online and mobile advertising and services provided by radio taxis or radio cabs have been brought under the tax net whereas for services like clinical research on human participants and services provided by air-conditioned contract carriages tax exemption has been withdrawn. Measures Taken Post-Budget 2014-15 CUSTOMS: Basic Customs Duty on raw and refined / white sugar was increased from 15% to 25%. EXCISE: The basic excise duty on petrol and diesel (both branded and unbranded) was increased as under:  Unbranded petrol from `1.20 per litre to `4.95 per litre;  Branded petrol from `2.35 per litre to `6.10 per litre;  Unbranded diesel from `1.46 per litre to `3.96 per litre; and  Branded diesel from `3.75 per litre to `6.25 per litre.

Source : Department of Revenue, Ministry of Finance.

Public Finance

2.8 In order to raise revenue and to improve the ease of doing business, a non-adversarial and non-intrusive tax regime is being promoted through modernization of the business processes of tax administration. Extensive use is being made of information technology for e-enablement of tax payer services and filing of income tax returns, various forms, audit reports, etc. Statements of tax deduction at source have been made compatible with electronic filing and computerized processing. The Centralized Processing Centre for income tax returns at Bengaluru and Centralized Processing Centre â&#x20AC;&#x201C;TDS (tax deduction at source) at Vaishali, Ghaziabad have also been made fully functional. These measures would enable the tax administration to function in a more efficient and automated environment and reduce the compliance burden on taxpayers. 2.9 Another important development in 2014-15 was the introduction of the Constitution (122nd Amendment) Bill in the Lok Sabha on 19 December 2014, which provides for levy of a goods and services tax (GST) on all goods or services except those specified. The broad framework of the GST is presented in Box 2.2.

Collection Rates 2.10 Customs duty is collected on imports of goods but there are number of exemptions to the application of the statutory rate. Therefore, increase in the value of imports does not necessarily imply similar change in customs duty collection. The collection rate is an indicator of overall incidence of customs duty and is computed as the ratio of total customs revenue collection to the value of imports in the fiscal year. The trend in these ratios for important commodity groups as well as for all commodities taken together over the years is depicted in Table 2.4. A major reason for the decline in collection rates has been a reduction in duties on many items which have significant import value, including petroleum, oil, and lubricants (POL), some of which continued until the recent hike, and of course the impact of various exemptions. Tax expenditure 2.11 There is a significant divergence between the statutory rates of taxes as notified in the various schedules and the actual or effective rate of

Table 2.4 : Collection Rates for Selected Import Groups S.No. Commodity group

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Food products

4.2

2.5

3.1

2.9

3.2

5.3

POL

2.7

1.9

5.6

2.8

1.5

1.6

Chemicals

16.4

13.9

16.9

14.0

16.3

Man-made fibre

17.0

22.0

29.6

21.9

31.3

29.5

Paper and newsprint

8.4

7.7

7.9

7.0

7.3

Natural fibre

5.6

4.3

4.6

3.3

4.5

5.6

Metals

16.8

17.4

22.0

19.7

22.7

22.9

Capital goods

12.5

11.3

12.9

11.5

11.7

11.9

Others

4.0

3.8

3.9

3.7

4.7

5.4

Non POL

8.7

7.6

8.5

7.4

8.2

8.8

Total

6.9

5.9

7.7

6.0

6.1

Source: Department of Revenue, Ministry of Finance. Notes: SN1 includes cereals, pulses, tea, milk and cream, fruits, vegetables, animal fats, and sugar. SN3 includes chemical elements, compounds, pharmaceuticals, dyeing and coloring materials, plastic, and rubber. SN5 includes pulp and waste paper newsprint, paperboards and manufactures, and printed books. SN6 includes raw wool and silk. SN7 includes iron and steel and non-ferrous metals. SN8 includes non-electronic machinery and project imports, electrical machinery.

Economic Survey 2014-15

Box 2. 2 : Goods & Services Tax (GST) The introduction of the GST would be a significant step in the field of indirect tax reforms in India. By subsuming a large number of central and state taxes into a single tax, it would mitigate cascading or double taxation in a major way and pave the way for a common national market. From the consumer’s point of view, the biggest advantage would be in terms of a reduction in the overall tax burden on goods, which is currently estimated at 25 per cent30 per cent. Introduction of the GST is also expected to make Indian products competitive in domestic and international markets. Studies show that this would instantly spur economic growth. Because of its transparent character, it is expected that the GST would be easier to administer. The broad features of the proposed GST model are as follows: (i) GST would be applicable on supply of goods or services as against the present concept of tax on the manufacture or on sale of goods or on provision of services. (ii) GST would be a destination-based tax as against the present concept of origin-based tax. (iii) It would be a dual GST with the centre and the states simultaneously levying it on a common base. The GST to be levied by the centre would be called central GST (CGST) and that to be levied by the states would be called state GST (SGST). (iv) An integrated GST (IGST) would be levied on inter-state supply (including stock transfers) of goods or services. This would be collected by the centre so that the credit chain is not disrupted. (v) Import of goods or services would be treated as inter-state supplies and would be subject to IGST in addition to the applicable customs duties. (vi) A non-vatable additional tax, not exceeding 1 per cent on inter-state supply of goods would be levied by the centre and retained by the originating state at least for a period of two years. (vii) CGST, SGST, and IGST would be levied at rates to be recommended by the Goods and Services Tax Council (GSTC) which will be chaired by the Union Finance Minister and will have Finance Ministers of states as its members. (viii) GST would apply to all goods and services except alcohol for human consumption. (ix) GST on petroleum products would be applicable from a date to be recommended by the GST Council. (x) Tobacco and tobacco products would be subject to the GST. In addition, the centre could continue to levy central excise duty. (xi) A common threshold exemption would apply to both CGST and SGST. Taxpayers with a turnover below it would be exempt from GST. A compounding option (i.e.to pay tax at a flat rate on turnover without credits) would be available to small taxpayers below a certain threshold. However, a taxable person falling within the limit of threshold or compounding could opt to pay tax at the normal rate in order to be part of the input tax credit chain. (xii) The list of exempted goods and services would be kept to a minimum and it would be harmonized for the centre and states as far as possible. (xiii) Exports would be zero-rated. (xiv) Credit of CGST paid on inputs may be used only for paying CGST on the output and the credit of SGST paid on inputs may be used only for paying SGST. In other words, the two streams of input tax credit (ITC) cannot be cross utilized, except in specified circumstances of inter-state supplies, for payment of IGST. Over the past four decades, the value added tax (VAT) has been an important instrument of indirect taxation, with 130 countries having adopted it, resulting in one-fifth of the world’s tax revenue. Tax reform in many of the developing countries has focused on moving to VAT. Federal countries like Canada, New Zealand, and Australia have successfully adopted the GST into their structure. Implementation of a comprehensive GST in India is expected, ceteris paribus, to lead to efficient allocation of factors of production thus bringing about gains in GDP and exports. This would translate into enhanced economic welfare and higher returns to the factors of production, viz. land, labour, and capital. However, in the near term, as GST replaces a number of state-level and central taxes, revenue gains may not be significant. Source : Department of Revenue and and NCAER Working Paper No. 103 titled ‘Moving to Goods and Services Tax in India-Impact on India’s growth and International Trade’, 2009.

Public Finance

2.12 Table 2.5 shows trends in revenue foregone from 2010-11 to 2013-14. The tax foregone estimates are for FY 2012-13, the most recent year for which data is available. However, an attempt has also been made to estimate the revenue to be foregone during FY 2013-14 on the basis of the revenue foregone figures of FY 2012-13. The aggregate revenue foregone from central taxes (both direct and indirect) is ` 5.66 lakh crore for 2012-13 and is projected to be ` 5.73 lakh crore for 2013-14.

taxation, which is essentially a simple ratio of tax revenue collected to the total taxable income (tax base). The tax expenditure or tax foregone estimates are intended to indicate the revenue foregone. Typically, there is an overstatement of the revenue foregone as most emerging markets have high rates on their statutory schedule of taxes and effectively tax collections at much lower rates systematically for a number of years For instance, the peak rate of customs duty on non-agricultural goods has been 10 per cent for a number of years now as against schedule rates that are manifold higher. In the Receipts Budget for 2014-15, tax forgone on account of exemptions under corporate income tax for 2012-13 was estimated at ` 68,720 crore and for 2013-14 was projected at ` 76116 crore (after taking into account additional liability collected through the minimum alternate taxâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;MAT). Though termed as revenue foregone, it does not imply that this quantum of revenue has been waived by the government. Rather, in some cases, this could be seen as targeted incentives for the promotion of certain sectors that may not otherwise, in the absence of such incentives, have come up. Further, the positive externalities by the way of ancillary economic gains due to the progress of any sector are also not factored in the determination of revenue foregone of any sector. However, in spite of these benefits accruing, there is a case for rationalizing some of the entries under this head.

Non-Tax Revenue 2.13 Non-tax revenue mainly consists of interest and dividend receipts and the receipts from services provided by the central government. After remaining at around 1.4 per cent of GDP in 201112 and 2012-13, non-tax revenue was at 1.8 per cent of GDP in 2013-14 (PA) and the Budget 2014-15 sought to maintain it around 1.7 per cent of GDP. The non-tax revenues were estimated to contribute about 17.9 per cent and 16.8 per cent of revenue receipts and non-debt receipts of the central government respectively in BE 2014-15. The lower estimates of non-tax revenue growth in 2014-15 (BE) over 2013-14(PA) were mainly on account of higher base in 2013-14 due to higher dividends and profits and interest receipts. Non-debt Capital Receipts 2.14 Recoveries of loans and disinvestment are the two main constituents of non-debt capital receipts. As against ` 40,057 crore in PA

Table 2.5 : Trends in Revenue Forgone/Tax Expenditure Tax Head

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14P

2012-13

` crore

2013-14P % of GTR

Corporate tax

57912

61765

68720

76116

6.6

6.7

Personal income-tax

36826

39375

33536

40414

3.2

3.5

Excise duty

192227

195590

209940

195679

20.3

17.2

Customs duty

172740

236852

254039

260714

24.5

22.9

Total

459705

533583

566235

572923

54.6

50.3

Gross Tax Revenue

793072

889177

1036235

1138832

Source : Receipts Budget of various years. Note : P=Projected.

Economic Survey 2014-15

2013-14, the Budget 2014-15 placed non-debt capital receipts at ` 73,952 crore, comprising ` 10,527 crore of recovery of loans and ` 63,425 crore of other receipts (mainly disinvestment). The recovery of loans has been declining and has become a minor source of non-debt capital receipts mainly because of the Twelfth Finance Commissionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s recommendation against loan intermediation from the centre to states. Over the years, disinvestment receipts have assumed greater importance under this head. The Budget for 201415 estimated that ` 58,425 crore would accrue during the fiscal year, of which ` 43,425 crore would be through disinvestment in central publicsector enterprises (CPSE) and ` 15,000 crore through disinvestment of government stake in nongovernment companies. In the current financial year, the government has disinvested its equity in SAIL, Coal India and others and realized about ` 24000 crore so far.

TRENDS IN EXPENDITURE 2.15 The two pillars of fiscal reforms, as mentioned earlier, are revenue augmentation and expenditure rationalization. Efficient and effective expenditure management is a key component of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act. Budget 2014-15 estimated total expenditure at ` 17.95 lakh crore which was 12.9 per cent higher than the 2013-14 (RE) and 14.8 per cent higher than 2013-14 (PA). Within this, the

Source : Budget documents & CGA. Note : Net Revenue Expenditure are net of grant given for creation of capital assets. The same head is added in Capital Expenditure and termed as net capital Expenditure.

expected growth in capital expenditure was 18.8 per cent and growth in revenue expenditure was 12.0 per cent over RE 2013-14. At disaggregated level, the BE 2014-15 estimated Plan and nonPlan expenditure at ` 5.75 lakh crore and ` 12.20 lakh crore respectively, which amounted 4.5 per cent and 9.5 per cent of budgeted GDP (Table 2.2), reflecting a growth of 20.9 per cent and 9.4 per cent respectively over RE 2013-14. Plan Expenditure 2.16 In 2014-15, the centrally sponsored schemes were restructured into 66 programmes for greater synergy and effective implementation and reclassified whereby the funds under these programmes are now being released as central assistance to state plans giving the states greater autonomy, authority, and responsibility in implementation of schemes. As a result, central assistance to state and union territory (UT) plans recorded an increase from ` 1.19 lakh crore in RE 2013-14 to ` 3.38 lakh crore in BE 201415. Further, the composition of net revenue and net capital expenditure has broadly remained the same since 2012-13, with both these components individually contributing roughly half of Plan expenditure (Figure 2.3). Furthermore, the broad sector-wise allocations of central Plan outlay (gross budgetary support in central Plan plus internal and extra-budgetary resources of the CPSEs) indicate that the energy, transport, social service, and industry and minerals, got the maximum share in BE 2014-15 (Figure 2.4).

Source : Budget 2014-15.

Public Finance

Non-Plan Expenditure

Subsidies

2.17 Non-Plan expenditure constituted around 68 per cent of total expenditure in BE 2014-15 which is 3 percentage points less than the levels of 2013-14 (PA). Out of the total non-Plan expenditure in BE 2014-15, the share of non-Plan revenue expenditure is 91.4 per cent, with the balance, a mere 8.6 per cent, being accounted for by capital non-Plan expenditure. Within capital non-Plan expenditure, it is defence expenditure which had the maximum share.

2.19 The subsidy bill for BE 2014-15 was placed at ` 2.60 lakh crore which was 23.4 per cent of non-Plan revenue expenditure and 2.0 per cent of GDP. In the post financial crisis period, the subsidy bill had increased from 2.2 per cent of GDP in 2009-10 to 2.5 per cent of GDP in 201213 (Table 2.6). The main items under this head from 2009-10 to 2012-13 were food and petroleum subsidies. The deregulation of diesel price in October 2014, along with the introduction of direct benefit (subsidy) transfer into the bank accounts of domestic LPG consumers, coupled with a sharp decline in global crude oil prices will help contain the petroleum subsidy bill. The underrecoveries on petroleum products are expected to be ` 74,664 crore during 2014-15 against ` 1,39,869 crore in 2013-14 (Box 2.3).

2.18 As a strategy for achieving fiscal consolidation, expenditure rationalization has major constraints on account of expenditures like interest payments, subsidies, defence services, pension, and non-Plan grants and aid to states and UTs, which constituted around 87.4 per cent of total non-Plan revenue expenditure in BE 201415 (Figure 2.5). The rationalization and reprioritization of non-Plan revenue expenditure is expected to play a vital role in the process of fiscal consolidation and targeting expenditure more towards inclusive and sustained development.

Source : Budget documents & CGA.

2.20 The rationalization of food subsidies is still an area where more effort is required. Recently, the High level Committee for Restructuring of Food Corporation of India recommended several measures including cash transfers to the beneficiaries of the public distribution system

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 2.6 : Trend in Subsidies (in ` crore) Subsidy Head

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

58443 61264 14951 134658 141351

63844 62301 38371 164516 173420

72822 70013 68484 211319 217941

85000 65613 96880 247493 257079

92318 71280 83998 247596 NA

115000 72970 63427 251397 260658

2.08 2.18

2.11 2.22

2.35 2.42

2.45 2.54

2.18 NA

1.95 2.02

Food Fertilizer Petroleum Major subsidies Total subsidies Major subsidies as % of GDP Total subsidies as % of GDP

2012-13 2013-14 PA 2014-15 BE

Source : Union Budget documents.

Box 2.3 : Impact of Falling Global Crude Prices and Fuel Policy Reforms Recent Trends in Prices of Crude Oil: Global prices of crude had stayed above $100/bbl since 2010. However, there has been a sharp downturn in these prices since September 2014. From July 2014 when they stood at $106.30/ bbl, they have fallen to below $50/bbl in January 2015. This sharp fall can be attributed to weakening of demand in the economies of Asia, especially China, and Europe. In addition, exploration of shale gas by countries like the United States and Canada to reduce their dependence on oil imports has led to lower demand for oil. This has also resulted in reduced retail prices of diesel, domestic LPG, and kerosene. The month-wise trend in prices for the year 2014-15 is shown in Figure below: During the last few years, the contribution towards under-recovery / subsidies had gone up substantially, adversely affecting the governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s fiscal position and thus contributing substantially to inflationary pressure. However, in October 2014, the government has made a move towards major pricing reforms in order to rationalize the subsidy structure in the oil and gas sector. The prices of diesel have been deregulated and have become market-determined at retail level and at the refinery gate. Deregulation is expected to result in better service delivery on account of increased competition. Besides direct gain, lower diesel prices have also benefited consumers indirectly as cost of transportation of goods has come down. Under-recoveries: Regulated prices of petroleum products resulted in under-recoveries to the oil marketing companies (OMCs) as they paid refinery gate prices based on import parity price (IPP)/ trade parity price (TPP) for purchase of products from the refinery but could not recover the same from domestic prices. Public-sector OMCs continued to pay TPP based on international prices for purchase of diesel and IPP for purchase of PDS kerosene and domestic LPG to refineries until 18 October 2014 when diesel was deregulated. In order to insulate the common man, the government continues to modulate the retail selling prices (RSPs) of PDS kerosene and domestic LPG. The estimated under-recoveries during 2014-15 are ` 74,664 crore with diesel contributing ` 10,935 crore, PDS kerosene ` 24,412 crore, and domestic LPG ` 39,317 crore. In 2013-14, there were under-recoveries of `1,39,869 crore with diesel contributing ` 62,837 crore, PDS kerosene ` 30,574 crore, and domestic LPG ` 46,458 crore. During 2014-15, with de-administration of diesel and also lower crude oil prices, the under-recoveries are likely to come down by about 47 per cent. The under-recoveries incurred by the OMCs have been shared by the upstream national oil companies and the government. During 2013-14, the national oil companies provided ` 67,021 crore of the total under-recoveries of ` 1,39,869 crore. In view of the importance of household fuels, namely PDS kerosene and domestic LPG, subsidies are provided for these products under a scheme of 2002 (` 2930 crore in 2014-15 BE). In addition, support is provided for transport of fuel to far-flung areas (` 23 crore in 2014-15 BE). Source : Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas.

Public Finance

(PDS), which will pave the way for rationalization of food subsidies.

PROVISIONAL OUTCOME IN 2014-15 VIS-À-VIS BE 2014-15

Interest Payment

2.22 The provisional outcome of AprilDecember 2014-15 was released on 30 January 2015 by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA). Fiscal deficit stood at ` 5.32 lakh crore which is 100.2 per cent of BE and higher than the last five years’ average of 77.7 per cent (Table 2.8).

2.21 Fiscal deficit is a flow variable which gets added into the stock variable (public debt and liabilities) every year, thus attracting interest liability. Interest payments were placed at ` 4.27 lakh crore in BE 2014-15, accounting for 38.31 per cent of non-Plan revenue expenditure and 3.3 per cent of GDP. As a proportion of GDP, interest payments had been declining in the post-FRBM period. However, due to expansionary fiscal policy to obviate the adverse impact of the global crisis, interest payments as a proportion of GDP increased somewhat in the post-crisis period (Figure 2.6). The average cost of borrowing is placed at 8.4 per cent in 2014-15 (BE) as against 7.7 per cent in 2012-13 (Table 2.7).

Note : NPRE-Non Plan Revenue Expenditure.

Table 2.7 : Average Cost of Borrowings OIL

IIL

ACB

In ` crore 2009-10

2874683

192567

7.50

2010-11

3212521

212707

7.40

2011-12

3765153

251634

7.83

2012-13

4295575

290278

7.71

2013-14(RE)

4782585

355438

8.27

2014-15(BE)

5387174

402143

8.41

Source : Union Budget documents. OIL=Outstanding Internal Liabilities excluding NSSF IIL= Interest on Internal Liabilities excluding NSSF ACB= Average cost of borrowing

2.23 For 2014-15, the GTR till the month of December 2014 shows a growth of 7.0 per cent which is way below the 17.7 per cent envisaged by the BE. As a proportion of the BE, direct taxes collected in April-December 2014 are broadly at the same levels as in the corresponding period of the previous year and given that last year the overall collection was close to the RE (lower only by ` 30,568 crore vis-à-vis the BE) implies that the same can be achieved this year too. The growth in indirect taxes at 6.2 per cent in 2014-15 (AprilDecember) is much lower than of the 25.8 per cent envisaged over the PA of 2013-14. The outcome in April-December 2014 in terms of nontax revenue collected as a proportion of the BE at 69.7 per cent is higher than in the corresponding period last year. However, a 6.2 per cent growth in expenditure in April-December 2014 over the corresponding period in the previous year as compared to BE of 12.9 per cent has helped in containing fiscal deficit for the first three quarters of the current fiscal. This implies that for fiscal marksmanship this year too, some expenditure compression may have to be made. In order to obviate the need for large-scale expenditure reduction, the government has however put in place some revenue augmentation and mobilization efforts. 2.24 Some of the measures to boost revenue included increases in excise duty on petrol and diesel, amid a dip in global oil prices. The four excise duty hikes since November 2014 are expected to bring in ` 20,250 crore in additional revenue this financial year. The government recently announced stake sales in four companies, including 10 per cent in Coal India which at current

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 2.8 : Provisional outcome for 2014-15 (Till December 2014) BE ` (` crore) 2014-15

Absolute number ` crore) (` 2013-14 2014-15

April-December Per cent of respective BE 2013-14 2014-15

Per cent change over previous year 2013-14 2014-15

1. Revenue receipts

1189763

633933

693773

60.0

58.3

11.1

9.4

Gross tax revenue

1364524

743709

795686

60.2

58.3

9.2

7.0

Tax (net to centre)

977258

517661

545714

58.6

55.8

6.9

5.4

Non-tax revenue

212505

116272

148059

67.5

69.7

34.6

27.3

605129

529858

542615

87.0

89.7

26.0

2.4

Recovery of loans

10527

8038

8282

75.4

78.7

4.3

3.0

Other receipts

63425

5430

1952

9.7

3.1

-33.6

-64.1

3. Total receipts

1794892

1163791

1236388

69.9

68.9

17.4

6.2

4. Non-Plan expenditure

1219892

812528

883757

73.2

72.4

16.9

8.8

(a) Revenue account

1114609

731159

813270

73.6

73.0

16.9

11.2

Interest payments

427011

248464

275220

67.0

64.5

23.0

10.8

Major subsidies

251397

188899

212418

85.5

84.5

13.2

12.5

81983

53890

68104

76.2

83.1

20.2

26.4

105283

81369

70487

69.5

67.0

16.9

-13.4

575000

351263

352631

63.3

61.3

18.7

0.4

(a) Revenue account

453503

274016

282278

61.8

62.2

12.8

3.0

(b) Capital account

121497

77247

70353

68.9

57.9

46.0

-8.9

1794892

1163791

1236388

69.9

68.9

17.4

6.2

1568112

1005175

1095548

70.0

69.9

15.7

9.0

226780

158616

140840

69.2

62.1

29.4

-11.2

7. Revenue deficit

378349

371242

401775

97.7

106.2

24.6

8.2

8. Effective revenue deficit

210245

275183

303912

134.1

144.6

23.0

10.4

9. Fiscal deficit

531177

516390

532381

95.2

100.2

27.6

3.1

10.Primary deficit

104166

267926

257161

155.9

246.9

32.2

-4.0

2. Capital receipts

Pensions (b) Capital account 5. Plan expenditure

6. Total expenditure (a) Revenue expenditure (b) Capital expenditure

Source : CGA monthly account and Budget Documents.

market prices has yielded the government ` 22,557 crore. The government is also expecting a surge in revenue through spectrum sales and auction of coal blocks by March this financial year. The forthcoming recommendations of the Expenditure Management Commission will also be helpful in reprioritizing expenditure and curtailing expenditure leakages.

GOVERNMENT DEBT 2.25 The debt policy emphasizes maintaining a longer-term and sustainable debt structure at

lowest possible cost and is progressively resorting to market-oriented active debt management. To adhere to the debt policy objectives, the government started conducting buyback and switching of securities in 2013-14 in order to improve liquidity in securities and reduce rollover risk as well as utilizing the cash surplus. The total outstanding liabilities of the central government were ` 55.87 lakh crore, accounting for 49.2 per cent of GDP, comprising 39 per cent public debt and 10.2 per cent other liabilities at endMarch 2014 (Table 2.9). Of total public debt,

Public Finance

Table 2. 9 : Outstanding Liabilities of the Central Government as Per Cent of GDP (at endMarch) 2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

52.4

48.6

48.2

48.4

47.6

46.9

35.9

34.3

35.9

37.2

37.4

37.1

27.0

26.6

27.9

29.5

30.3

30.4

9.0

7.6

7.9

7.7

7.1

6.7

16.5

14.3

12.4

11.2

10.2

9.8

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.5

54.5

50.6

50.1

49.2

48.3

1. Internal liabilities (a)+(b) a. Internal debt i. Market borrowings ii. Others b. Other internal liabilities 2. External debt # 3. Total outstanding liabilities

2012-13 2013-14(RE) 2014-15 (BE)

Source : Union Budget Documents. Notes : # External debt figures represent borrowings by central government from external sources and are based upon historical exchange rates. The ratios to GDP at current market prices are based on the CSOâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s National Accounts 2004-5 series.

internal debt constituted 95.9 per cent and the remaining was external debt (at book value). Total outstanding liabilities were estimated at ` 62.22 lakh crore in BE 2014-15.

PERFORMANCE OF DEPARTMENTAL ENTERPRISES OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

Department of Posts 2.26 The gross receipts of the Department of Posts in 2013-14 were placed at ` 10,730 crore. The gross and net working expenses during the year were ` 16,797 crore and ` 16,204 crore respectively, yielding a deficit of ` 5,473 crore. In RE 2014-15, the gross receipts are budgeted to go up to ` 10,902 crore with gross and net working expenses estimated at ` 18,490 crore and ` 17,846 crore respectively. The deficit is projected to be ` 6,944 crore. Railways 2.27 Indian Railways is steadily moving towards developing a strategy to become part of an effective multi-modal transport system, so as to ensure environment-friendly and economically efficient transport movement. Freight earnings during 2013-14, at ` 93,906 crore, registered a growth of 10.1 per cent over 2012-13. Passenger 2

earnings (including other coaching earnings) at ` 40,211 crore registered an increase of 17.0 per cent during 2013-14. The gross traffic receipts of the Railways for 2013-14 stood at ` 1.39 lakh crore as against ` 1.24 lakh crore in 2012-13. BE for gross traffic receipts and total working expenses for 2014-15 were ` 1.60 lakh crore and ` 14.80 lakh crore. An improvement is envisaged in the operating ratio of the Railways, from 93.6 per cent in 2013-14 to 92.5 per cent in 2014-15 (BE). Net revenue as a proportion of capital-at-charge and investment from the Capital Fund, which stood at 5.6 per cent in 2013-14, is budgeted to improve to 6.3 per cent during 2014-15.

FISCAL PERFORMANCE OF THE STATES

2.28 Fiscal consolidation of states during recent years was largely revenue-led, with significant increases in both own tax revenue as well as current transfers from the centre, the latter reflecting the enhancements recommended by the Thirteenth Finance Commission. However, some deterioration in state government finances was seen in 2013-14, while improvement is budgeted in 2014-15. Revenue surplus as a proportion of GDP during 2013-14 (RE) was negligible compared to the previous yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 0.2 per cent. Capital outlayGDP ratio during 2013-14 (RE) increased

Based on Budgets of twenty-six state governments, out of which five are based on Vote on Account.

Economic Survey 2014-15

marginally by 0.4 per cent over the previous year, indicating improvement in the quality of expenditure. For the year 2014-15, the consolidated revenue surplus is projected to increase to 0.4 per cent of the GDP. Gross fiscal deficit (GFD) and primary deficit as proportions to GDP are budgeted to decline to 2.3 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively in 2014-15 from 2.4 per cent and 0.9 per cent respectively in 201314 (RE) pointing out the intent for fiscal consolidation by states. The projected decline in GFD-GDP ratio in 2014-15 is mainly due to an increase in the revenue receipts resulting from current transfers from the centre. The expenditure pattern shows that the committed expenditureGDP ratio (comprising interest payments, administrative services, and pension) will broadly remain unchanged during 2014-15 (BE), while overall expenditure as a ratio to GDP is budgeted to increase.

CONSOLIDATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT 2.29 The fiscal deficit of the centre was estimated at 4.8 per cent of GDP in BE 2013-14 and revised to 4.6 per cent in RE 2013-14. With the fiscal deficit of states at 2.4 per cent of GDP in RE 201314, the fiscal deficit of consolidated general government (centre and states combined) was placed at 7.0 per cent of GDP in 2013-14 (RE) and estimated to decline to 6.4 per cent of GDP in BE 2014-15.

OUTLOOK 2.30 Despite domestic challenges and external vulnerabilities, the government adhered to fiscal consolidation in 2013-14. The 4.1 per cent fiscal deficit target of 2014-15 seems achievable in spite of slow growth of revenues and delayed disinvestment. To meet this target, the government may have to resort to some expenditure compression. Nevertheless, declining global oil prices, along with the diesel-price deregulation and direct transfer of domestic LPG subsidies to bank accounts, are expected to help lower the fuel subsidy bill. Increased revenues are expected through increase in excise duties on petroleum and diesel. 2.31 Going forward, enhanced revenue generation is a priority. To some extent this will be helped by raising the growth rate of the economy. The implementation of a well-designed GST and other tax reforms would also play a crucial role in this regard. Overhauling the subsidy regime which should entail further reducing fuel (LPG and kerosene) subsidies, tackling fertilizer subsidies, and moving to Aadhaar-based direct cash transfers of food subsidy and other transfers would pave the way for expenditure rationalization. Fiscal consolidation is a necessity but the quality of consolidation is imperative to make it sustainable. To achieve this end, it would be necessary to put in place a medium-to-long- term fiscal policy framework with explicit revenue, expenditure, and deficit targets.

Monetary Management and Financial Intermediation

CHAPTER

Several reform initiatives were taken in the banking and insurance sector in 201415. These include allowing banks to raise capital from the market to meet capital adequacy norms by diluting the governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s stake up to 52 per cent, launching of the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana to provide universal access to banking facilities with at least one basic banking account for every household, and notifying of an ordinance to enhance the foreign equity cap in the insurance sector. Equity markets continued to do well and a number of steps such as improvement in corporate governance norms and establishment of a foreign portfolio investor regulation framework were taken by the Securities and Exchange Board of India for better functioning of both primary and secondary markets.However, asset quality of banks showed some signs of stress during the year. Gross non-performing advances of scheduled commercial banks as a percentage of total advances showed an increase during the year. The year also saw a decline in the growth of bank credit.

MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS DURING 2014-15 3.2 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) adopted the new Consumer Price Index (combined) as the measure of the nominal anchor (headline CPI) for policy communication. Policy rates were kept unchanged during the year till January 2015. In view of continuing easing of inflationary pressures, on 15 January 2015 the RBI reduced the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) from 8.0 per cent to 7.75 per cent. Table 3.1 and Figure 3.1 show revisions and movements in policy rates from 2013 to 2015. Trends in Monetary Aggregates 3.3 During 2014-15, both reserve money (M0) and broad money (M3) decelerated, compared to the previous year. The moderation in M0 primarily reflects adjustments in bankersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; deposits with the

Table 3.1 : Revision in Policy Rates Effective date

Bank rate/ MSF rate* (percent)

Repo Reverse CRR SLR rate repo (per (per cent (perrate cent of NDTL) cent) (perof cent) NDTL)

19-03-2013

8.50

7.50

6.50

03-05-2013

8.25

7.25

6.25

15-07-2013

10.25

20-09-2013

9.50

7.50

6.50

07-10-2013

9.00

29-10-2013

8.75

7.75

6.75

28-01-2014

9.00

8.00

7.00

14-06-2014

22.50

09-08-2014 15-01-2015 7-02-2015

4.00 $

22.00 8.75

7.75

6.75 21.50

Source : RBI. Notes : * Bank rate was aligned to MSF rate w.e.f 13.2. 2012; $ w.e.f 09.02.2013. MSF is marginal standing facility; CRR is cash reserve ratio; SLR is statutory liquidity ratio; NDTL is net demand and time liability.

Economic Survey 2014-15

Source : RBI

RBI following larger year-end accretion in deposits. On the sources side, the increase in the net foreign exchange assets (NFA) of the RBI was mostly offset by the decrease in its net domestic assets (NDA), reflecting a lower net liquidity injection by the RBI in the absence of strong demand for liquidity (Table 3.4). The trends in currency in circulation reflected weaker economic activity (Table 3.2). 3.4 Deceleration in credit (Table 3.3) could be attributed to economic slowdown, availability of alternative sources of funds, deterioration in asset quality of banks, especially public-sector banks (PSB), and selling of stressed loans by a few banks

to asset reconstruction companies. Net bank credit is also lower due to repayment of loans by entities that received payments by government departments and public enterprises, and lower borrowing by oil marketing companies. Liquidity Management 3.5 With a view to ensuring flexibility, transparency and predictability in liquidity management operations, RBI revised its liquidity management framework with effect from 5 September 2014. Its main features are: (a) assured access to liquidity of 1 per cent of NDTL (excluding export credit refinance) through bank-wise overnight fixed rate repos of 0.25 per

Table 3.2 : Sources of Change in Reserve Money (M0) (in per cent)

Reserve money Select components Currency in circulation Bankersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; deposits with RBI Select sources of reserve money Net foreign exchange assets of RBI Governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s currency liabilities to the public Net non-monetary liabilities of RBI Source : RBI

2013-14

Financial year 3 January 2014 over 31 March 2013

2 January 2015 over 31 March 2014

14.4

5.1

0.9

9.2 34.0

5.7 3.3

5.9 -15.7

15.7 13.0 21.8

15.1 15.1 26.6

10.9 8.1 0.6

Monetary Management and Financial Intermediation

Table 3.3 : Sources of Change in Money Stock (M3) (in per cent) 2013-14

31 March 2013 to 27 December 2013

31 March 2014 to 26 December 2014

13.2

9.9

7.9

Currency with the public

9.4

6.4

6.2

Demand deposits with banks

6.8

2.7

7.7

Time deposits with banks

14.6

11.4

8.2

“Other” deposits with RBI

-39.3

-23.2

314.2

12.2

9.3

1.5

10.5

10.2

10.1

Bank credit to commercial sector, of which,

13.7

9.1

5.7

Other banks’ credit to commercial sector Net foreign exchange assets of banking sector

13.6 17.6

9.1 16.0

5.8 9.5

Government’s currency liabilities to the public

13.0

9.9

7.3

Banking sector’s net non- monetary liabilities

17.4

12.3

-8.2

5.5 1.2 12.1 13.2

8.5 9.2

7.5 4.3

Broad money (M3)

Sources of change in money stock (M3) Net bank credit to government, of which, Other banks’ credit to government

Memo items Money multiplier Velocity of money Net domestic assets Net domestic credit Source: RBI.

cent of NDTL and variable rate fourteen-day term repos; (b) more frequent auction of term repos (four times) during a fortnight, allowing flexibility to banks to alter their liquidity assessment; and (c) higher frequency of access to RBI’s overnight liquidity, with the introduction of variable rate overnight repos/reverse repo auctions. Term repo Table 3.4 : End-quarter growth rate of NDAs and NFAs (per cent) NDAs 3/31/2013 6/28/2013 9/27/2013 12/27/2013 3/31/2014 6/27/2014 9/26/2014 12/26/2014 Source : RBI

9.1 19.5 24.9 13.8 18.3 -2.1 -21.5 -19.0

NFAs 5.8 4.0 10.6 13.1 15.7 12.7 13.7 11.5

auctions are projected to grow as the main instrument of frictional liquidity management. Liquidity conditions 3.6 Liquidity conditions have remained broadly balanced during 2014-15 so far, except temporary tight conditions due to delayed government expenditure. Tight liquidity conditions were witnessed in March 2014 but improved from Q1 2014-15 due to decline in government cash balances. Slower paced growth in credit off-take in comparison to deposit mobilization and drawdown of government cash surplus helped ease liquidity pressures from August. The narrowing gap between credit and deposit growth (which turned negative in August 2014), also helped reduce the pressure on liquidity during this period. The revised liquidity management framework helped the weighted average cutoff rates in fourteen-day term repo auctions as well as in overnight variable rate repo auctions

Economic Survey 2014-15

remain close to the repo rate. The volatility of the weighted average call rate went down. Moderation in the weighted average call rates and long-term yields for government and highquality corporate issuances since end-August 2014 suggest that there has been some easing of monetary conditions.

Developments in Government Securities Market 3.7 The ten-year government bond reflects the long end of the yield curve. The ten-year rates are also proxy credit risk of the sovereign. The primary factors responsible for easing in yields (Figures 3.2 and 3.3) include positive

Source : RBI and Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).

Source: Bloomberg.

Monetary Management and Financial Intermediation

market sentiment on account of expectations from the new stable government at the centre, three-year low retail inflation readings in December 2014, significant correction in

commodity prices and firm commitment shown by the government on the fiscal front, and up gradation of outlook by sovereign credit rating agency S &P.

Table 3.5 : Growth Rates of Select Banking Aggregates % change 2012-13

Bank credit (a) Food credit

14.1 18.6

2013-14 (as on 13 December 2013) 13.9 14.6 2.1 -1.1

(b) Non food credit Aggregate deposits (a) Demand Deposits (b) Time Deposits Investment (a) Govt securities (b) Other approved securities

14.0 14.2 5.9 15.2 15.4 15.5 -11.5

14.2 14.1 7.8 14.8 10.3 10.4 -33.6

Source : RBI.

2013-14

14.9 16.6 12.3 17.0 14.0 14.0 -5.8

2014-15 (as on 12 December 2014) 10.9 -2.1 11.1 10.6 7.6 10.9 10.4 10.5 -8.3

Data for 2014-15 is provisional.

BANK CREDIT 3.8 The growth of aggregate deposits of scheduled commercial banks (SCB) decelerated during 2014-15 till December (Table 3.5), mainly due to base effect, i.e. high accretion to NRI

Source: RBI.

deposits, last year during September-November and due to lower deposit mobilization during this year. The growth in non-food credit also decelerated (see also Figure 3.4).

Economic Survey 2014-15

Interest Rates of SCBs (excluding Regional Rural Banks) 3.9 The transmission of changes in policy rate to deposit and lending rates of banks remained muted in 2014-15 so far, reflecting the presence of structural rigidities in the credit market, weak pricing power of banks, and asset quality concerns.During 2014-15 till December, the median-term deposit rates of banks across all maturities declined modestly (Table 3.6), reflecting comfortable liquidity conditions as well as subdued

credit demand. The weighted average lending rate (WALR) declined marginally, reflecting weak pricing power of banks, offset partly by asset quality concerns prompting banks to charge higher risk premiums. 3.10 During 2007 to 2013, real policy interest rates were consistently negative (Figure 3.5). This situation had been reversed by the end of 2013, when real interest rates started climbing into positive territory, and they now stand above 2 per cent (on a three-month forward- looking basis).

Table 3.6 : Deposit and Lending Rates of SCBs (excluding RRBs) Items

Average interest rates (%)

Variations (percentage points) 15 Dec. (December over 2014 March)

Mar.14

Jun.14

Sep-14

7.69

7.65

7.62

7.54

-0.15

Public-sector banks

7.85

7.81

7.76

7.57

-0.28

Private-sector banks

7.67

7.57

7.56

7.50

-0.17

Foreign Banks

7.56

7.58

7.54

7.53

-0.03

Nov 2014

Nov over March

Domestic term deposit rates of SCBs- All Maturities

WALR (outstanding rupee loans) SCBs

12.19

12.20

12.11

12.14

-0.05

WALR (fresh rupee loans) SCBs

11.64

11.68

11.59

11.60

-0.04

Source:RBI. Notes: SCB is scheduled commercial bank. RRB is regional rural bank. WALR is weighted average lending rate. Data on WALR isprovisional.

Source: RBI.

Monetary Management and Financial Intermediation

Performance of SCBs 3.11 The capital to risk weighted assets ratio (CRAR) at system level was 13.02 per cent as at end March 2014 (Basel-III). It moved to 12.75 per cent in September 2014. The regulatory requirement for CRAR is 9 per cent for FY 2015. The decline in capital positions at aggregate level, however, was on account of deterioration in capital positions of PSBs. While the CRAR of the scheduled commercial banks (SCB) at 12.75 per cent as of September 2014 is satisfactory, going forward the banking sector, particularly PSBs will require substantial capital to meet regulatory requirements with respect to additional capital buffers. 3.12 Asset quality of PSBs has come under stress in recent times. As per the RBI’s Financial Stability Report (December 2014),the gross nonperforming advances (GNPA) of scheduled commercial banks as a percentage of the total gross advances increased to 4.5 per cent in September 2014 from 4.1 per cent in March 2014. Stressed advances increased to 10.7 per cent of the total advances from 10.0 per cent between March and September 2014. Five subsectors, viz.infrastructure, iron & steel, textiles, mining (including coal), and aviation, hold 54 per cent of total stressed advances of PSBs as on June 2014. Among bank groups, exposure of PSBs to infrastructure stood at 17.5 per cent of their gross advances as of September 2014. This was significantly higher than that of private-sector banks (9.6 per cent) and foreign banks (12.1 per cent). The stress tests suggest that the asset quality of banks may improve in the near future under expected positive developments in the macroeconomic environment and banks may be able to meet expected losses with their existing level of provisions. The PSBs continue to be under stress on account of their past lending. Taking GNPA and restructured advances together, the stress on PSBs is 12.57 per cent of total advances as on September 2014. 3.13 The RBI has taken a number of steps to resolve the NPA issue. In January 2014, it came

out with guidelines on ‘‘Early Recognition of Financial Distress, Prompt steps for Resolution and Fair Recovery for Lenders: Framework for Revitalizing Distressed Assets in the Economy’’, whereby banks have to start acting as soon as a sign of stress is noticed in a borrower’s actions and not wait for it to become an NPA. The RBI has also issued guidelines to bring flexibility in project loans to infrastructure and core industry projects, both existing and new.Towards strengthening recovery from non-cooperative borrowers, the RBI has tightened the norms for asset reconstruction companies (ARC) in August 2014, whereby the minimum investment in security receipts should be 15 per cent, as against the earlier norm of 5 per cent.

FINANCIAL INCLUSION 3.14 Financial inclusion is an important priority of the government. The objective is to ensure the excluded sections, i.e. weaker sections and lowincome groups, access to various financial services such as a basic savings bank account, need-based credit, remittance facility, insurance and pension. 3.15 Pradhan Mantri Jan-DhanYojana: To achieve the objective of financial inclusion by extending financial services to the large hitherto unserved population of the country and to unlock its growth potential, the Pradhan Mantri JanDhanYojana (PMJDY) was launched on 28 August 2014. The Yojana envisages universal access to banking facilities with at least one basic banking account for every household, financial literacy, access to credit and insurance. The beneficiaries will receive a RuPay Debit Card having inbuilt accident insurance cover of Rs1 lakh. In addition, there is a life insurance cover of ` 30,000 to those who opened their bank accounts for the first time between 15 August 2014 and 26 January 2015 and meet other eligibility conditions of the Yojana. The Yojana has entered the Guinness World Records for opening most bank accounts during the week starting 23August 2014 as part of the financial campaign. As on 28 January 2015, 12.31 crore bank accounts have been opened, of which 7.36 crore are in rural areas and 4.95 crore in

Economic Survey 2014-15

urban areas. Under the PMJDY, 67.5 per cent of the accounts as on 28 January 2015 are with zero balance. The major initiatives taken in the banking sector are given in the box 3.1

NON-BANKING FINANCIAL COMPANIES 3.16 Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) have evolved as important financial intermediaries particularly for the small-scale and retail sectors. NBFCs as a whole accounted for 13.1 per cent of bank assets and 0.2 per cent of bank deposits as on 31 March 2014. There are two broad categories of NBFCs based on whether they accept public deposits, viz., deposit-taking NBFCs (NBFC-D) and non-deposit-taking NBFCs (NBFC-ND). With the emergence of large sized NBFCs, the regulatory focus has gradually increased on systemically important NBFCs (NBFCs-ND-SI), i.e. with asset size ` 500 crore and above. The total number of NBFCs registered with the RBI declined from 12,158 (as on 30 September 2013) to 11,932 (as on 30 September 2014). The number of NBFCs-D declined from 253 to 226, while the number of NBFC-ND with asset size ` 100 crore

and above increased from 437 to 465 during the same period. The number of NBFCs-ND-SI stood at 200 as on 30 September 2014. Loans and advances by NBFCs witnessed a growth of 13.1 percent during 2013-14. From the perspective of deployment of funds, loans and advances accounted for more than two-thirds of their total deployment of funds. 3.17 The RBI has issued a revised regulatory framework for NBFCs in November 2014, as they are increasingly exposed to risks arising out of counterparty failures, funding and asset concentration, and interest rate movement and risks pertaining to liquidity and solvency.

DEVELOPMENTS IN CAPITAL MARKETS Primary Market 3.18 During April-December 2014, resource mobilization through the primary market exhibited mixed patterns with equity and debt issues declining and private placements of corporate bonds increasing, on year-on-year basis. As private placements of corporate bonds account for the lion’s share, total mobilization increased during the period. The number and value of private

Box 3.1 : Major Initiatives in the Banking Sector a)

The RBI issued guidelines for licensing of new banks in the private sector on 22 February 2013, and in April 2014 two applicants have been granted‘in principle’ approval to setup new banks in the private sector within a period of eighteen months.

Pursuant to the Budget 2014-2015 announcement for setting up of differentiated banks serving niche interests such as local area banks and payment banks,the RBI has formulated and released guidelines in November 2014 for licensing of payments banks and small finance banks in the private sector. Subsequently the RBI has invited applications for setting up of small banks and payments banks.

Payment and Settlement Systems (Amendment) Bill 2014:The Payment and Settlement Systems Act 2007 (PSS Act) was enacted with a view to providing sound legal basis for the regulation and supervision of payment systems in India by the RBI. For establishing a legal framework for regulation of trade repositories and legal entity identifier issuer, amendments have been considered necessary to make the PSS Act more effective. The proposed amendments will provide finality to the determination of the payment obligations and settlement instructions between a central counter party (the system provider) and system participants in the event of insolvency, dissolution, or winding up of a central counter party. The Bill has been passed by the LokSabha in the winter Session of 2014 and is currently pending in the Rajya Sabha.

Capital requirement of PSBs: The Union Cabinet, on 10 December 2014 has approved aproposal allowing PSBs to raise capital from public markets through FPO (follow on public offer) or QIP (qualified institutional placement) by diluting Government of India holding upto 52 per cent in a phased manner based on their capital requirement, stock performance, liquidity, market appetite and subject to certain conditions.

Monetary Management and Financial Intermediation

Table 3.7 : Resource Mobilization in the ` crore) Primary Market (` 2012-13 2013-14 2013-14# 2014-15# Debt

16982

42383

17436

7348

Equity

15473

13269

8124

4292

6528

1236

1166

1480

Pvt. Placement of corporate bonds 361462

276054

201838

269245

Total

331706

227398

280885

of which IPOs

393917

Source: SEBI. Notes: The equity issues considered are only equity public issues; : # indicates as on 31 December of respective year.

placements increased both in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) during the period (Table 3.7). Secondary Market 3.19 The benchmark indices, BSE Sensex and Nifty showed a general upward trend in the current year so far, closing at 27,499 and 8283 respectively as on 31 December 2014 with corresponding growth rates of 29.9 and 31.4 per cent, year on year (Figure 3.6). The Indian indices are among the better performing in the world (Table 3.8).

Table 3.8 : Performance of Major Stock Markets in the World Index

Country

Sensex Nifty SPX DAX UKX NKY HSI IBOV KOSPI FSSTI SHCOMP CAC

India India USA Germany England Japan Hong Kong Brazil Korea Singapore China France

Index value 2014#

Percentage change in 2014 over 2013 (based on local currency)

Percentage change in 2014 over 2013 ( based US$ )

27499 8283 2059 9806 6566 17451 23605 50007 1916 3365 3235 4273

29.9 31.4 11.4 2.7 -2.7 7.1 1.3 -2.9 -4.8 6.2 52.9 -0.5

27.1 28.5 11.4 -9.6 -8.5 -5.8 1.3 -13.4 -8.4 1.2 49.1 -12.7

Source : Bloomberg Note : # indicates as on 31 December of respective year.

Economic Survey 2014-15

` crore) Table 3.9 : Currency and Interest Rate Derivatives (` Exchange

NSE MCX-SX USE BSE

Trading value in currency derivatives

Trading value in interest rate derivatives

2013-14#

2014-15#

2013-14#

2014-15#

3454979 2166528 185385 17552

2101567 534329 52185 1073916

30173 7191

266607 20346

2580

1440

Source : NSE, MCX-SX, BSE and USE. Note: # indicates as on December 31 of respective year.

3.20 Currency and Interest Rate Derivatives : Most exchanges saw a decline in trading volumes in the currency derivatives segment (Table 3.9). Trading in cash-settled interest rate futures contracts on ten-year Government of India securities commenced in January 2014. 3.21 Foreign Portfolio Investment:With the commencement of the foreign portfolio investment (FPI) regime from 1 June 2014, the erstwhile foreign institutional investors (FIIs), Sub Accounts and qualified foreign investors (QFIs) have been merged into a new investor class termed foreign portfolio investors. The total net FPI inflows during April-December 2014 stood at US $ 32,943 million compared to an outflow of US $ 539 million in the corresponding period of 2013-14. SEBI has undertaken a number of policy initiatives for the development of both primary and secondary markets during the year. The major policy developments are given in Box 3.2

INSURANCE SECTOR 3.22 In India, insurance penetration has grown from 2.3 per cent (life 1.8 per cent and non-life 0.7 per cent) in 2000 to 3.9 per cent (life 3.1 per cent and non-life 0.8 per cent) in 2013. The life insurance penetration level compares well with the emerging market economies. During 2013-14, the life insurance industry recorded a premium income of ` 3,14,283 crore as against ` 2,87,202 crore in the previous financial year, registering a growth of 9.4 per cent. While private-sector insurers posted 1.4 per cent decline in their premium

income, Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) recorded 13.5 per cent growth during the period. On the basis of total premium income, the market share of LIC increased from 72.7 per cent in 2012-13 to 75.4 per cent in 2013-14. 3.23 With a view to removing archaic and redundant provisions in the insurance laws, empowering the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) to enable more effective regulation, and enhancing the foreign equity investment cap in an Indian insurance company from 26 to 49 per cent with the safeguard of Indian ownership and control, the government has promulgated the Insurance Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2014 on 26 December 2014. The ordinance amends the Insurance Act 1938, the General Insurance Business (Nationalization) Act 1972, and the IRDA Act 1999.

PENSION SECTOR 3.24 The National Pension System (NPS) which was initially introduced for the new recruits who had joined central government service (except armed forces at first stage) with effect from 1 January 2004, has been subsequently extended to autonomous bodies, state governments, and the unorganized sector. Barring two States, all the States have since come under the ambit of the NPS. From 1 May 2009, the NPS was opened up for all citizens in India to join on a voluntary basis. Till 31 December 2014, a total of 79.71 lakh members have been enrolled under the NPS with a corpus of ` 73, 097 crore. Assets under management

Monetary Management and Financial Intermediation

Box 3.2 : Policy Developments (April-December 2014) Securities Laws (Amendment) Act 2014: Vide the Act passed in August 2014, enhanced powers were conferred upon SEBI, including explicit power to disgorge ill-gotten gains, power to conduct search and seizure, explicit powers for settlement, attachment and recovery, increase in penalties, and constitution of special courts. Primary Market  In order to strengthen the corporate governance norms, SEBI amended Clause 49 of the equity listing agreement with provisions such as exclusion of nominee director from the definition of independent director and compulsory whistle blower mechanism.  The Securities Contracts (Regulation) Rules 1957 were amended to require a minimum public shareholding of 25 per cent of the total number of issued shares of public-sector units within three years. Secondary Market  The framework for stock exchanges to launch cash-settled interest-rate futures on ten-year government securities was prescribed.  FPIs were allowed to trade in currency derivatives subject to terms and conditions.  SEBI enabled a single consolidated view of all the investments of an investor in mutual funds and securities held in demat form with the depositories.  SEBI permitted single registration for stock brokers/clearing members. The policy of granting single registration for operating with both the depositories was approved.  SEBI amended SEBI {KYC Registration Agency} (KRA) Regulations 2011 to provide for sharing of KYC (know your customer) information with other regulators. Foreign Portfolio Investors  The SEBI (Foreign Portfolio Investors) Regulations 2014 came into effect from 1 June 2014. Operational Guidelines for Designated Depository Participants (DDPs) were issued.  From April 2014, investment conditions for FII/QFI investments in government debt securities were changed whereby their investments in T-Bills were allowed to taper off on maturity/sale.  FPIs were permitted to invest on repatriation basis, in non-convertible/redeemable preference shares or debentures issued by an Indian company and listed on recognized Indian stock exchanges. Mutual Funds, Corporate bonds, AIFs  SEBI (Real Estate Investment Trusts) Regulations 2014 were notified in September 26, 2014.  SEBI notified the Infrastructure Investment Trust Regulations in September 2014 which provide a framework for registration and regulation of InvITs in India.  SEBI (Research Analysis) Regulations, 2014 were notified on September 01, 2014.

under the NPS have witnessed an increase from ` 48,136 crore as on 31 March 2014 to ` 72,000 crore as on 31 December 2014, registering an increase of 49.6 per cent. The Swavalamban Scheme, a co-contributory pension scheme launched in 2010 for persons in the unorganized sector, is now open to those citizens of India who are not part of any pension/ provident fund scheme. A total of 6.29 lakh subscribers have already been enrolled under

the scheme till 31 December 2014 during FY 2014-15. 3.25 The Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) Act 2013 has been made effective from 1 February 2014, after it was passed by Parliament in September 2013. The PFRDA Act seeks to vest the PFRDA with statutory status in order to allow it to perform its regulatory and developmental roles effectively.

External Sector

CHAPTER

The robust external-sector outcome in the current year of moderate trade and current account deficits, abundant financial flows, a build-up of foreign exchange reserves and broadly stable exchange rate movement points to a return to the path of strength and resilience that was in evidence before the global financial crisis of 2008. This follows the improvement last year that was achieved in the face of an initial phase of severe stress and on the strength of policy responses. The correction in the international prices of crude petroleum in the second half of the current fiscal has helped in the decontrol of diesel prices. The overall trade performance signaled an opportune time for withdrawal of restrictions on gold imports. The resilience also owed in part to the trade diversification process. While trade and current account deficits are on even keel, the copious financial inflows in excess of the financing requirement has helped shore up foreign exchange reserves (US$ 328.7 billion at end-January 2015). These have helped allay the vulnerability concerns that led to severe stress last year. These concerns, however, remain a potent downside risk, should the global environment deteriorate for some reason. The global economic outlook remains somewhat uncertain but stable and likely to gain strength if lower global crude petroleum prices drive the demand recovery process in key emerging market economies.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 4.2 The global economic environment appears poised for a change for the better with the recent sharp fall in the international prices of crude petroleum, which is expected to boost global aggregate demand, and the sharp recovery in the US economy in the face of gradual withdrawal from monetary accommodation. Following the global crisis of 2008, the global economy came under a cloud of uncertainty and the prolonged weakness in the euro area, particularly since 2011, led to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) often revising global growth downwards in its World Economic Outlook (WEO). In its Update, published on 20 January 2015, the IMF projected

the global economy to grow from 3.3 per cent in 2014 to 3.5 per cent in 2015 and further to 3.7 per cent in 2016. This downward revision from its October 2014 projections owed to the weaker economic prospects in China, Russia, the euro area, Japan, and some major oil exporters because of the sharp drop in oil prices. The United States is the only major economy for which growth projections have been raised by 0.5 percentage point to 3.6 per cent for 2015. 4.3 In the case of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), which continue to struggle with tepid domestic demand and headwinds from structural impediments, the IMF Update projects growth to moderate to

External Sector

4.3 per cent in 2015 and 4.7 per cent in 2016. The IMF’s projections only partially reflect the net impact of the fall in global crude oil prices and for the near term outlook. Going forward, the lower oil price is likely to be more positive for the EMDEs that account for more than half of the global output (purchasing power parity terms) given their higher contribution to global growth with inflation remaining anchored. This might lead to a better outcome than projected. A sudden correction in financial markets and downside risks to growth with a possible further slowdown in the euro area along with the likely duration of the oil price supply shock effect, are some of the concerns that linger on. 4.4 The WEO Update projects India’s GDP growth at market prices to be 6.3 per cent (downward revision of 0.1 percentage point compared to the WEO of October 2014) in 2015 and for the year 2016, projected growth is 6.5 per cent surpassing the projection of 6.3 per cent for China. The recent upward revisions to India’s GDP growth made by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on 30 January 2015 may get reflected in the subsequent projections of the WEO. The level of global economic activity has a significant direct bearing on the growth prospects of the emerging economies through trade channels. As per the IMF WEO Update, January 2015, world trade volume growth projections have been placed at 3.8 per cent and 5.3 per cent, respectively for 2015 and 2016—lower by 1.1 percentage points and 0.2 percentage point respectively.

INDIA’S MERCHANDISE TRADE 4.5 Over the last ten years, India’s merchandise trade (on customs basis) increased manifold from US$ 195.1 billion in 2004-05 to US$ 764.6 billion in 2013-14. As per the World Trade Organization (WTO), India’s share in global exports and imports increased from 0.8 per cent and 1.0 per cent respectively in 2004 to 1.7 per cent and 2.5 per cent in 2013. Its ranking in terms of leading exporters and importers improved from 30 and 23 in 2004, to 19 and 12 respectively in 2013. While India’s total merchandise trade as a

proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) increased from 29.0 per cent in 2004-05 to 41.8 per cent in 2013-14, India’s merchandise exports as a proportion of GDP increased from 12.1 per cent to 17.0 per cent during the same two time periods. There were considerable differences in the growth rates within the two time periods which owed largely to the global uncertainty, prolonged weakness in some areas, and volatility in global commodity prices since 2008. In particular, global crude oil prices were a major factor in the process of elevated levels of merchandise trade deficit (Box 4.1). 4.6 After registering very high growth of 40.5 per cent in 2010-11, growth of merchandise exports moderated to 21.8 per cent in 2011-12. The high growth in two years led to overall exports crossing the US$ 300 billion mark. In 2012-13, though exports were still above the US$ 300 billion mark, growth in exports could not be sustained and marginally declined by 1.8 per cent [Appendix Table 7.1(B)]. During 2013-14, however, exports recovered to post a growth of 4.7 per cent (US$ 314.4 billion). In 2014-15 (April-January), growth of exports moderated to 2.4 per cent (US$ 265.0 billion vis-à-vis US$ 258.7 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year). 4.7 India’s merchandise imports grew by 28.2 per cent in 2010-11and the high growth continued through 2011-12 driven by broad-based expansion in imports of gold and silver, POL group and non-POL and non-gold and silver group. In 2012-13, there was only modest decline in the growth rates of gold and silver as well as nonPOL imports, leading to continuance of elevated level of total imports of around US $ 490 billion. In 2013-14, in view of the sharp depreciation of the rupee owing to domestic and external factors, the government placed restrictions on gold imports which led to a sharp decline therein of 46.4 per cent. With domestic activity remaining weak, nonPOL and non-gold and silver imports also declined by around 7 per cent, which along with the fall in gold imports led to overall decline in imports to US$ 450 billion. In 2014-15 (April-January), imports grew by 2.2 per cent to US$ 383.4 billion

Economic Survey 2014-15

Box 4.1 : Implications of Global Crude Oil Price Movements Any major change in global commodity prices, particularly crude oil prices, has implication for the external sector as India is increasingly integrated with the rest of the world. It is evident that India’s rising two-way external-sector transactions have more than doubled as a proportion of GDP over the last ten years. Trade openness provides opportunities for higher growth through higher exports and makes available better quality products domestically at globally competitive prices. Typically in the literature, current account deficit (CAD) is viewed as foreign savings that promote growth through higher investment given the level of domestic savings in EMDEs; but in the context of India’s large oil import dependence and the sharp rise in global crude oil prices, the widening of the CAD in 201112 and 2012-13 may be an atypical outcome. Changes in crude oil prices have direct bearing on India’s CAD. Historically, crude oil imports accounted for a substantial portion of the country’s total imports. Petroleum, oil, and lubricants (POL) imports accounted for more than one-third of India’s total imports in recent years. In 2013-14, POL imports accounted for 36.6 per cent of total imports. The share of POL imports in total imports is estimated at over 33 per cent in the current fiscal year so far (up to December 2014). The changes in trade deficit and by implication CAD in recent years are largely explained by the changes in crude oil prices (Figure 1).

Note : For the year 2014-15 data relates to April-December.

Global crude oil prices (Indian basket) which were as high as US$ 107.2 per barrel in the first quarter of 2014-15 declined to US$ 101.7 per barrel in the second and further to US$ 75.2 per barrel in the third quarter of 2014-15. Subsequently, they remained below US$ 50 per barrel. As on 30 January 2015, the crude oil prices of the Indian basket stood at US$ 46.7 per barrel. Under some simplifying assumptions, a fall in international crude oil prices by US$ 1 per barrel is likely to reduce the net import bill by US$ 0.9 billion per annum. Average prices of oil in the period from April 2014 to January 2015 were around US$ 90 per barrel, which is likely to result in lower overall net oil imports by US$ 9.5 billion for 2014-15, assuming 6 per cent growth in import quantity. India’s current account balance should strengthen in view of substantial fall of about 56 per cent in crude oil prices of the Indian basket in January 2015 over the level of March 2014. Besides, a reduction in international gold prices by US $ 10 per troy oz is estimated to lead to a US$ 130 million fall in net gems and jewellery imports for 2014-15 assuming no change in quantum of imports.

as compared to US$ 375.3 billion in 2013-14 (April-January). While the value of POL imports declined by 7.9 per cent in 2014-15 (April-

January), gold and silver imports grew by 8.0 per cent in 2014-15 (April-January). Non-POL and non-gold and silver imports which largely reflect

External Sector

the imports needed for industrial activity grew by 7.8 per cent in 2014-15 (April-January), after registering a decline of 0.7 per cent and 6.9 per cent respectively in 2012-13 and 2013-14. 4.8 While the above developments in nominal terms broadly reflect the trends, it is useful to decompose the growth rates in terms of changes in quantity and price, which are best indicated by the quantum and unit value indices that reflect terms of trade (Table 4.1). The change in quantum index for exports broadly corresponds directionally with nominal growth in US dollar and rupee terms, albeit at much lower rates, 2012-13 being an exception when in US dollar terms there was negative growth as against a high positive growth rate in the quantum index. In the case of the quantum index of imports, there was greater directional divergence with the nominal growth rates expressed in US dollar and rupee terms. 4.9 The changes in unit value indices of exports and imports were broadly in positive territory with

the exception of 2009-10. The outcome in terms of trade was reflected in the deterioration evidenced in 2011-12. This deterioration owes to the oil price shock which could be reversing in the second half of 2014-15. 4.10 The oil price shock was amplified given the large import dependence that had kept imports at elevated levels since 2011-12 and the relative sluggish global demand constraining overall export growth. Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s subsequent resilience owed to the diversification processes that encompass both commodity composition and direction of trade. Composition of Trade 4.11 The commodity composition of Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s trade has undergone many changes since liberalization and has been driven by trade policy, movements in international prices, and the changing pattern of domestic demand. Manufactured goods constitute the bulk of exports â&#x20AC;&#x201D; over 63 per cent in recent years, followed by crude and petroleum products

Table 4.1 : Trade Performance: Quantum and Unit Value Indices (per cent change) US$ terms 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15(P)

-0.6 20.3 21.1 30.8 23.4 22.6 29.0 13.6 -3.5 40.5 21.8 -1.8 4.7 3.4

Exports Rupee Quantum terms index 2.7 22.1 15.0 27.9 21.6 25.3 14.7 28.2 0.6 35.2 28.3 11.5 16.6 5.0

0.8 19.0 7.3 11.2 15.1 10.2 7.9 9.0 -1.1 15.2 8.9 7.9 5.9 4.8

Unit value index

US$ terms

1.0 2.9 7.5 14.9 6.1 13.7 5.1 16.9 1.0 13.8 20.2 6.0 9.9 3.6

2.9 19.4 27.3 42.7 33.8 24.5 35.5 20.7 -5.0 28.2 32.3 0.3 -8.3 1.5

Imports Rupee Quantum terms index 6.2 21.2 20.8 39.5 31.8 27.3 20.4 35.8 -0.8 23.4 39.3 13.8 1.7 3.9

4.0 5.8 17.4 17.2 16.0 9.8 14.1 20.2 9.9 8.0 -20.9 6.1 -10.7 0.8

Unit value index 2.8 14.3 3.1 18.9 14.0 15.1 1.9 13.8 -10.0 13.0 74.9 8.0 12.9 3.3

Terms of trade Net Income

-1.7 -10.0 4.3 -3.4 -6.9 -1.2 3.1 2.7 12.3 0.7 -31.3 -1.9 -2.7 0.2

-0.9 7.2 11.9 7.4 7.1 8.8 11.2 11.9 11.0 15.9 -25.2 5.8 3.1 5.0

Source : Computed based on data of the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S). Note : For the year 2014-15 growth rate relates to April to September.

P : Provisional.

Economic Survey 2014-15

(including coal) with a 20 per cent share, and agriculture and allied products with a share of 13.7 per cent share [Appendix Table 7.3(B)]. The top seven product groups accounting for nearly 80.9 per cent of India’s total exports in 2014-15 (April-December) were: petroleum products (19.4 per cent share); gems and jewellery (13.0 per cent share); agriculture and allied products (12.0 per cent share); textiles and allied products (11.6 per cent share); chemicals and related products (10.1 per cent share); transport equipment (8.5 per cent share) and machinery (6.3 per cent share). 4.12 Growth in exports of petroleum and agriculture and allied products which had been in positive territory for the last four years, turned negative in 2014-15 (April-January). Gems and jewellery exports which exhibited a declining trend in 2012-13 and 2013-14, continued to register a declining trend in 2014-15 (AprilJanuary). In the case of electronic goods, there has been continuous decline in exports since 2012-13. During 2014-15 (April-January), some sectors like transport equipment; machinery, chemicals and related products, textile and allied products and base metals registered positive growth in exports. 4.13 Marine products and leather and leather manufactures recorded relatively high growth in 2012-13, 2013-14, and 2014-15 (April-January). While the shares in terms of nominal value of exports (conversely imports) may be high in some sectors, the import (export) component may also be high and therefore it would be instructive to look at value added (Box 4.2). 4.14 One of the major items in India’s import basket is the POL group, which accounted for 36.6 per cent of India’s total imports in 2013-14. POL imports surged with a growth of 46.2 per cent in 2011-12, mainly on account of significant increase in global crude oil prices vis-à-vis 2010-11. The growth in imports of POL moderated to 5.9 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively in 2012-13 and 2013-14. There was moderation in international

crude oil prices (Brent) from US$109.8 per barrel in the first quarter of 2014-15 to US$ 76.0 per barrel in the third quarter which resulted in the value of POL imports declining by 7.9 per cent in 201415 (April-January). Capital goods imports are another major group which declined continuously from 2011-12 onwards. Within capital goods, imports of machinery registered positive growth in 2014-15 (April-January). Gold and silver imports accounted for 11.4 per cent of India’s total imports in 2012-13 and 7.4 per cent in 2013-14. These imports declined by 9.0 per cent and 40.4 per cent respectively in 2012-13 and 2013-14 but registered a positive growth of 8.0 per cent in 2014-15 (April-January). Imports of pearls and precious and semi-precious stones grew by 5.4 per cent in 2013-14 and declined by 3.9 per cent in 2014-15 (April-January). Direction of Trade 4.15 There has been significant market diversification in India’s trade in recent years –a process that has helped in coping with the sluggish global demand, which owes to a great extent to the weakness in the euro zone. Region-wise, India’s export shares to Europe and America have declined over the years—from 23.6 per cent and 20.1 per cent respectively in 2004-05 to 18.6 per cent and 17.2 per cent respectively in 2013-14. Conversely, the shares of India’s exports to Asia and Africa have increased from 47.9 per cent and 6.7 per cent respectively in 2004-05 to 49.4 per cent and 9.9 per cent respectively in 2013-14. The change in direction immediately prior to the global financial crisis and since 2010-11 indicates the process of diversification underway. A comparison of India’s trade in the pre-crisis (200405 to 2007-08) and post-crisis period (2010-11 to 2013-14) shows that India’s exports and imports from Europe, the USA, and Singapore have declined, while its trade with Asia and Africa has increased (Table 4.2). 4.16 In 2014-15 (April-December), India’s exports to the European region grew by only 0.2 per cent. India’s exports to Africa and America grew by 12.9 and 14.5 per cent respectively and

External Sector

Box 4.2 : Estimates of Labour and Non-labour Components of Domestic Value Added in India’s Exports The changing contours of trade and the emergence of global production chains have important implications for developing countries. Increasing use of imported inputs has generally caused a decline in the domestic value added share of total exports. The decomposition of value added by capital and different types of labour is an important aspect of global fragmentation of the production process. It is often argued that increasing trade and thereby integration with the world market will lead to new opportunities for developing nations to employ their abundant medium and low skilled workers. The aforementioned decomposition of domestic value added allows examination of how the benefits of globalization are being distributed between capital and different types of labour. In the Indian context, the share of domestic value added exports in total exports has witnessed a decline from 86.9 per cent in 1998-99 to 84.1 per cent in 2003-04 and further to 78.5 per cent in 2007-08. The foreign value added share in exports, however increased, indicating deepening of the process of international production fragmentation. The domestic labour component is relatively higher in India’s service exports than in merchandise exports. Further, the domestic value of exports based on four components (unskilled, semi-skilled, skilled labour, and non-labour) shows that the combined share of the skilled labour and non-labour components is significantly high, which shows a pervasive process of technological change that is biased towards the use of skilled labour and capital. An analysis of the domestic value of India’s exports by factor inputs reveals that the labour component in domestic value added for merchandise exports was 28 per cent in 2007 whereas it was 39 per cent for total exports (including services) for the same year. For services exports, the corresponding figure is about 51 percent, which indicates that the domestic labour component is relatively higher in services exports than in merchandise exports. The contribution of labour to domestic value addition (Table 1) has decreased for merchandise exports (by more than 6 percentage points) and increased for service exports (by 2 percentage points) over the period 1998-99 to 2007-08. At a disaggregated level, the labour component in domestic value added of India has increased mainly for agriculture, food processing, and services sectors; whereas capital contribution has increased for machinery, metal products, and many of the other manufacturing sectors. Table 1: Decomposition of Domestic Value Added of Exports into Factor Components 1998-99 to 2007-08 (per cent per annum) Sectors

Labour component 1998-99 2003-04 2007-08 27.9

Non-labour component 1998-99 2003-04 2007-08 50.7

47.3

42.9

Domestic value added 1998-99 2003-04 2007-08

Merchandise exports

34.2

32.1

85.0

79.4

70.8

Services exports

48.8

51.4

50.9

42.0

41.4

35.8

90.8

92.8

86.7

Total exports

39.2

38.9

39.1

47.8

45.2

39.5

86.9

84.1

78.5

Source : Computation based on input output tables published by the CSO, Annual Survey of Industries (ASI), National Sample Survey (NSS) rounds, and Social Accounting Matrices. Note : The labour and non-labour components of DVA do not add up to 100 because the remaining part is the foreign value added component.

Distribution of factor content according to skill levels of workers is shown in Table 2. Estimates at the aggregate level, show that for manufactured exports, the share of unskilled labour and capital is high whereas for services exports and total exports the share of capital and high skilled labour is significantly higher than those of medium skilled and unskilled labour. Table 2 : Distribution of Domestic Value of India’s Exports according to Factor Input and Skill Level of Labour 2007 (in per cent) Sectors

Unskilled labour Semi-skilled component labour component

Skilled labour component

Non-labour component

Foreign value added share

Merchandise Exports Top export items 1) Petroleum products 2) Readymade garments 3) Gems & jewellery 4) Drugs and medicines

10.9

8.8

8.0

43.1

29.2

2.0 17.3 10.0 8.7

2.2 13.7 10.3 8.0

2.4 9.8 7.8 9.6

27.6 42.7 35.2 47.6

65.8 16.4 36.6 26.1

Services exports

10.3

14.5

26.1

35.9

13.3

Total Exports

10.6

11.6

16.8

39.6

21.5

Source : Computation based on input output tables published by the CSO, ASI, NSS survey rounds, and Social Accounting Matrix tables. A similar pattern in factor shares has been observed for several other emerging nations where the shares of capital and high skilled labour have increased implying that the global value chains are becoming increasingly capital and skill intensive over time. Source: Based on a study by Deb Kusum Das, Sreerupa Sengupta, and Pilu Chandra Das, ICRIER, ‘Estimating Domestic Value Added and Foreign Content of India’s Exports’, sponsored by the Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Government of India (GoI).

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 4.2 : Export and Import Shares of Regions/Countries in India’s Trade Region/ countries

Exports

Imports

Exports to imports Ratio

2004-05 to 2010-11 to 2007-08 2013-14

Change 2004-05 to 2010-11 to in share 2007-08 2013-14

Change 2004-05 to 2010-11 to Change in share 2007-08 2013-14

Europe

23.3

19.0

-4.3

21.6

18.0

-3.6

73.6

68.6

-5.0

Germany

3.3

2.5

-0.7

3.9

3.0

-0.9

56.5

53.9

-2.5

Belgium

2.7

2.1

-0.6

2.6

2.2

-0.3

73.4

62.4

-10.9

Switzerland

0.4

0.0

4.5

6.2

1.7

6.7

4.2

-2.5

Africa

7.8

8.9

1.2

6.3

8.5

2.2

84.0

68.1

-15.9

Nigeria

0.7

0.9

0.1

2.1

2.9

0.8

23.8

19.7

-4.1

America

18.9

16.6

-2.3

10.3

11.0

0.7

124.9

98.3

-26.6

U SA

14.9

11.6

-3.3

7.1

5.1

-2.0

143.5

148.5

5.0

Asia

48.5

50.2

1.7

48.9

60.2

11.3

67.7

54.4

-13.4

4.8

4.5

-0.3

2.8

1.7

-1.2

116.6

177.7

61.1

Singapore Indonesia

1.5

1.9

0.5

2.1

3.0

0.9

47.2

41.5

-5.8

United Arab Emirates

9.2

11.7

2.5

4.5

7.6

3.2

140.0

99.2

-40.8

Saudi Arabia

2.0

2.8

0.8

5.1

6.8

1.7

26.6

26.3

-0.3

Kuwait

0.5

0.4

0.0

2.1

3.4

1.3

15.4

8.5

-6.9

Qatar

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.9

2.8

2.0

22.0

5.6

-16.4

Iraq

0.2

0.3

0.2

1.8

3.6

1.9

6.2

5.5

-0.6

6.6 4.0 1.7 100.0

5.3 4.1 1.4 100.0

-1.3 0.1 -0.3 —

9.0 1.3 2.7 100.0

11.2 1.9 2.7 100.0

2.2 0.6 0.0 —

50.4 210.1 43.6 68.2

30.8 137.7 33.8 65.1

-19.6 -72.5 -9.8 -3.1

China Hong Kong Korea Total

Source : Computed based on data of the DGCI&S.

to Asia, a major destination accounting for nearly 50 per cent of India’s exports, by 2.2 per cent in 2014-15 (April-December). Within Asia, India’s exports to South Asia grew by 23.8 per cent (mainly due to high export growth to Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh) and 8.8 per cent in the case of West Asia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) (UAE, Saudi Arabia, and others). India’s exports to other regions of Asia witnessed a contraction—declining by 4.4 per cent to North East Asia (consisting of China, Hong Kong, Japan), 7.2 per cent to the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) (consisting of Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia), and 8.5 per cent to Other West Asia (Iran, Israel, and others)—in 2014-15 (April-December). Countrywise, India’s exports to the USA and UAE— major destinations with a share in India’s total exports of 12.5 per cent and 9.7 per cent respectively in 2013-14—grew by 11.2 per cent and 11.9 per cent in 2014-15 (April-December).

However, India’s exports to China (4.7 per cent share) and Belgium (2.0 per cent share) declined by 14.7 per cent and 10.7 per cent during the same period. Since 2012-13, there has been a contraction in India’s exports to Singapore and Indonesia. 4.17 The share of Europe in India’s imports also declined from 23.0 per cent in 2004-05 to 15.8 per cent in 2013-14 while the shares of Asia and Africa increased substantially from 35.6 per cent and 3.6 per cent in 2004-05 to 60.7 per cent and 8.1 per cent respectively in 2013-14. The share of America in India’s imports has also increased from 8.8 per cent to 12.8 per cent during the same period. China is the major source of India’s imports, accounting for 11.3 per cent of India’s total imports, followed by Saudi Arabia (8.1 per cent share), the UAE (6.5 per cent share), and the USA (5.0 per cent share) in 2013-14. In 201415 (April-December), India’s imports from China

External Sector

grew by 18.7 per cent. However, there was contraction in India’s imports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and USA by 14.2 per cent, 7.9 per cent, and 7.9 per cent, respectively during the same period. Imports from Switzerland and Singapore also declined in 2012-13 and 2013-14 but picked up with a positive growth in 2014-15 (AprilDecember).

and trade bodies are given support for participation in buyer seller meets (BSM), trade fairs, and exhibitions in various countries under the Market Access Initiative (MAI) scheme and Market Development Assistance (MDA) scheme.

Trade Deficit

Anti-dumping Measures

4.18 In 2013-14, India’s trade deficit (on customs basis) declined to US$ 135.8 billion from a high level of US$ 190.3 billion in 2012-13, mainly on account of a decline in the growth of imports (8.3 per cent), even though growth in exports was sluggish at 4.7 per cent. The decline in imports owed to lower growth in oil imports (0.4 per cent) and negative growth in gold and silver imports. However, in 2014-15 (AprilJanuary) trade deficit increased marginally by 1.6 per cent to US$ 118.4 billion as against US$ 116.5 billion in 2013-14 (April-January). Low export growth (2.4 per cent) and import growth (2.2 per cent), resulted in a modest increase in trade deficit by US$ 1.8 billion. Nevertheless in terms of levels, trade deficit being close to last year reflects on external-sector polices including trade policies.

4.21 With a view to providing a level playing field to the country’s domestic industry so that it is able to compete effectively in the domestic market with foreign exporters some of whom could be resorting to dumping, recourse to anti-dumping action is being taken by major markets.The Directorate General of Anti-dumping and Allied Duties (DGAD) conducts anti-dumping investigations on the basis of applications filed by the domestic industry with prima facie evidence of dumping of goods in the country, injury to domestic industry, and causal link between the dumping and injury to domestic industry. Such petitions submitted by the domestic industry are processed as per the procedure and within the time limits specified under the Customs Tariff Act 1975 and the rules made thereunder. The DGAD conducts investigations and recommends imposition of duty, wherever appropriate, to the Department of Revenue by issuing its preliminary/final findings. Acting upon such recommendations of the DGAD, the Department of Revenue may impose provisional or definitive duties.

TRADE POLICY Trade policy measures 4.19 The elevated levels of trade deficit arising from the global and domestic factors since 201112 that continued through the first quarter of 2013-14 led to severe stress in the external sector outcome with larger macroeconomic implications. The government took various measures including those aimed at boosting the performance of the export sectors which supplemented the announcements made in the Budgets and in the Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) 2009 and its Annual Supplements. Various schemes were strengthened, viz. Focus Product Schemes (FPS), Focus Market Scheme (FMS), Market Linked Focus Product Scheme (MLFPS), and Vishesh Krishi and Gram Udyog Yojana (VKGUY). In addition, industry

4.20 Some of the recent measures taken by the government are given in Box 4.3

4.22 Anti-dumping investigations are initiated by other countries as well and in 2013 about 287 were initiated in all (Table 4.3). In 2012, Brazil overtook India with more than double the investigations initiated by India. In 2013 also Brazil’s investigations were high at 54, followed by the USA and India. In 2014, till June end both India and the USA have initiated equal number of investigations. Of the 690 cases initiated by India (as on 30 June 2014), duty has been imposed in 535; imports from China faced the maximum number of initiations and out of 166 cases, duty was imposed in 134.

Economic Survey 2014-15

Box 4.3 : Some of the Trade Policy Measures Taken 

To promote domestic manufacturing capabilities, scrips issued under different schemes, namely FPS, FMS, VKGUY, MLFPS, Served From India Scheme (SFIS), Agri Infrastructure Incentive Scheme (AIIS), for import of goods can be utilized for payment of excise duty for domestic procurement. This is an important measure for import substitution and will help save foreign exchange as well as create additional employment.



Similarly, scrips issued under the FPS, FMS, Vishesh Krishi and Gram UdyogYojana (VKGUY) schemes can be utilized for payment of service tax.



To support export of products from the North Eastern Region (NER), exporters are entitled to additional incentives of 1 per cent of FOB value of exports in addition to other benefits under the FTP if exports are made from land customs station located in the NER.



To diversify India's exports, 7 new markets (Algeria, Aruba, Austria, Cambodia, Myanmar, Netherlands Antilles, and Ukraine) have been added to the FMS, 7 new markets (Belize, Chile, EI Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Morocco, and Uruguay) to the Special FMS, 46 new items to the MLFPS, and 12 new markets for the first time and 100 new items to the FPS list.



To boost export of services, the government has organized two editions of a Services Conclave in identified service sectors which are crucial to India. In the Conclave, barriers, if any, in the specific service sectors are identified and issues relating to the reforms needed, India's potential for enhancing exports in those sectors, and new markets for exporting services are discussed. A Global Services Exhibition will be organized in April 2015 in New Delhi, which is a platform for enhancing strategic cooperation and developing synergies between competitive players of the services sector and their global counterparts.



Indian trade portal (www.indiantradeportal.in) was launched on 8 December 2014. This portal provides vital information to Indian industry on forty-two export markets and also a mechanism to take advantage of the increased market access provided through various regional and bilateral free trade agreements (FTA) and comprehensive economic cooperation/partnership agreements (CECA/CEPA). The information is provided in a user-friendly manner in four easy steps for exporters and importers to access the portal, which will contribute to ease of doing business for trade and industry. This portal makes available important data like (i) most favoured nation (MFN) tariff, (ii) preferential tariff, (iii) Rules of Origin (RoO), and (iv) non-tariff measures (SPS/TBT) for use of exporters and importers at one place, in respect of countries with which we have FTAs. Consequently it facilitates India's exports and will also help exporters to utilize the FTAs and access the preferential tariffs available to them in various countries to capture export opportunities.



In order to mainstream the states so that they focus expressly on boosting exports, the key elements/ steps required to be initiated by them have been distilled and listed. A fifteen-point matrix has been developed and sent to all states / union territories (UTs) to incorporate the following: (a) development of export strategy by the state government, (b) appointment of an Export Commissioner for coordination of all export-related activities by the state government, and (c) instituting export awards to motivate the leading exporters from the state and encourage them to bring in greater export revenues.

WTO NEGOTIATIONS AND INDIA 4.23 While the above measures were broadly domestic policy adjustment to the emerging external-sector environment, India continued to be engaged in WTO negotiations that have an impact on the external sector as well as overall economy. The Ninth Ministerial Conference of the WTO took place in Bali during 3-7 December 2013. Ministers issued a Declaration and ten Decisions were adopted on various issues including trade facilitation and issues relating to agricultural trade

rules, development, and least developed countries (LDCs). Amongst these Decisions, two are of particular significance for India, viz. the Ministerial Decision for an Agreement on Trade Facilitation and the Ministerial Decision on Public Stockholding for Food Security Purposes. 4.24 The Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), which was also endorsed by India at the Ninth Ministerial Conference, is basically aimed at greater transparency and simplification of customs procedures, use of electronic payments and risk

External Sector

Table 4.3 : Investigations initiated by Top Ten Users of Anti-Dumping Measures Jan.-June Country India United States European Union Brazil Argentina Australia South Africa China Canada Turkey All countries

2001

2011

2012

2013

2014

79 77 28 17 28 24 6 14 25 15

19 15 17 16 7 18 4 5 2 2

21 11 13 47 12 12 1 9 11 14

29 39 4 54 19 20 10 11 17 6

17 7 3 17 12 5 5 8 10 4

13 13 3 29 4 11 1 4 3 2

372

165

208

287

122

106

Source : WTO.

management techniques, and faster clearances at ports. Trade facilitation was put on the agenda mainly by the developed countries while the issue of rules relating to public stockholding for food security purposes was put on the agenda by G-33 group of 46 developing countries including India. 4.25 The agricultural trade rules in the WTOâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Agreement on Agriculture do not bar public procurement and stockholding for food security. However, if food for such programmes is acquired at administered prices and not market prices, then this is deemed a support to farmers. As per WTO rules negotiated in the Uruguay Round, all such support has to be kept within a limit of 10 per cent of the value of production of the product in question. This cap can constrain procurement and food aid programmes in developing countries. The WTO rules, made keeping the interests of the developed countries uppermost, have overlooked the interests of the developing countries. The draft agriculture negotiating text of December 2008 seeks to change this. It contains a proposal to revise the rules, however, as the negotiations have not concluded, this remains an unfinished agenda. India, as part of a coalition of developing countries known as the G-33, proposed an amendment to the WTOâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Agreement on Agriculture to change these rules.

4.26 The G-33 proposals, as well as various alternatives suggested by the Group, met with resistance. Negotiations continued during the Bali Ministerial Conference. The finally agreed text of the Ministerial Decision provides for Members to put in place an interim mechanism and to negotiate on an agreement for a permanent solution for adoption by the Eleventh Ministerial Conference of the WTO. In the interim, until a permanent solution is found and subject to certain conditions, Members were to be protected against challenge in the WTO under the Agreement on Agriculture in respect of public stockholding programmes for food security purposes. Post Bali, the focus of the developed countries was only on the implementation of the TFA. Concerned at this uneven progress India took the stand in July 2014 that without a firm commitment to implement the other Bali Decisions, it would be difficult to join the consensus on the Protocol of Amendment to incorporate the TFA into the umbrella WTO Agreement. 4.27 Despite the general campaign of misinformation that followed about missing the deadline for the TFA and the effect of the impasse on the future of the WTO, India stood firm. Concerted efforts were made to explain the concerns underlying the stand taken and India worked with other WTO members to find a way

Economic Survey 2014-15

forward. On 27 November 2014, the General Council of the WTO adopted a Decision on Public Stockholding for Food Security Purposes, a Decision on the TFA and a Decision on Post Bali Work. The General Council Decision on Public Stockholding for Food Security Purposes makes it clear that a mechanism under which WTO members will not challenge the public stockholding programmes of developing country members for food security purposes, in relation to certain obligations under the WTO Agreement on Agriculture, will remain in place in perpetuity until a permanent solution regarding this issue has been agreed upon and adopted. The decision also includes a commitment to find a permanent solution on public stockholding for food security purposes by 31 December 2015 on a best endeavour basis and has a firm commitment to engage in negotiations for a permanent solution through an intensified programme of work. The decision addresses Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s concerns on the issue of public stockholding for food security purposes. The Tenth Ministerial Conference of the WTO (MC10) will be held in Nairobi, Kenya, from 15 to 18 December 2015. WTO members are engaged in discussion to finalise the work programme to conclude the remaining issues of the Doha Development Agenda.

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEVELOPMENTS Overview of Balance of Payments 4.28 Post the 2008 global financial crisis, EMDEs had to face periodic shocks or stresses emanating from policies in advanced economies as well as through financial channels notwithstanding the efforts of the G-20 at coordination of policy responses to the crisis. The Indian economy had to weather the shocks which got amplified on account of confluence of weak external demand and relatively strong domestic demand with large dependence on crude oil imports whose price levels remained elevated until the second half of the current fiscal. These shocks led to widening of the CAD in 2011-12 which continued through the first quarter of 2013-14. With external financing sources remaining volatile,

the less than adequate quantity and deteriorating quality of financing resulted in a sharp depreciation of the rupee. The policy responses that were put in place in 2013-14 helped overcome the stress through reduction in the levels of CAD and this, along with ample financing, led to reserve accretion that helped build resilienceâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;a process that continues through the current fiscal. 4.29 In the first half of 2014-15, Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s external-sector position was benign and comfortable (Table 4.4). Two important developments were that: (i) lower trade deficit along with moderate growth in invisibles resulted in lower CAD and (ii) there was a surge in capital inflows, enabled by higher portfolio investment, foreign direct investment (FDI), and external commercial borrowings (ECB). Higher capital inflows were in excess of the financing requirement or CAD and resulted in accretion in foreign exchange reserves. Data on merchandise trade available beyond the first half discussed in an earlier section indicates that trade deficit continues to remain broadly at comparably moderate levels and the monthly data on financial inflows and foreign exchange reserves available unmistakably points to reserve accretion and the copious nature of external financing. A part of the moderate trade outcome owe to the recent fall in international prices of crude petroleum. Given the above developments and considering the current conjuncture opportune, the Government decontrolled the prices of high speed diesel on 19 October 2014 and lifted the restrictions placed on gold imports on 29 November 2014. Current account developments in 2014-15 (April-September) 4.30 Data on balance of payments (BoP), which is available with a lag of approximately one quarter, indicates that in the first half of 2014-15, there was a year-on-year improvement in trade account (on BoP basis) as a result of low growth in imports overcoming the moderation in merchandise export growth. Merchandise exports grew by 7.6 per cent in 2014-15 (April-September) to US$ 167.0 billion. However, in the second quarter there was

External Sector

Table 4.4 : Balance of Payments : Summary

(US$ million)

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 (PR) (P)

III

IV V

Current account i. Exports ii. Imports iii. Trade balance iv. Invisibles (Net) A. Services B. Transfer C. Income Current account balance Capital account i. External assistance ii. ECBs iii. Short-term debt iv. Banking capital of which Non-resident deposits v. Foreign investment A. FDI B. Portfolio investment vi. Other flows Capital account balance Errors & omissions Capital account balance (including errors & omissions) Overall balance Reserve change (-)indicates increase, + indicates decrease

2013-14 2014-15 H1 (Apr.- H1 (Apr.Sept. 2013) Sept. 2014) (P) (P)

182442 300644 -118202 80022 36016 52045 -8038 -38181

256159 383481 -127322 79269 44081 53140 -17952 -48053

309774 499533 -189759 111604 64098 63494 -15988 -78155

306581 502237 -195656 107493 64915 64034 -21455 -88163

318607 466216 -147609 115212 72965 65276 -23028 -32397

155152 238941 -83789 56830 35239 32744 -11153 -26959

166974 240188 -73214 55272 36069 32757 -13554 -17942

2890 2000 7558 2083

4941 12160 12034 4962

2296 10344 6668 16226

982 8485 21657 16570

1032 11777 -5044 25449

130 2455 589 11487

606 3429 69 -542

2922 50362 17966 32396 -13259 51634 -12 51622

3238 42127 11834 30293 -12484 63740 -2636 61104

11918 39231 22061 17170 -7008 67755 -2432 65323

14842 46710 19819 26891 -5105 89300 2689 91989

38892 26386 21564 4822 -10813 48787 -882 47905

13700 7762 14589 -6827 -6619 15806 453 16259

6473 38385 16183 22202 -3407 38539 -2522 36017

13441 -13441

13050 -13050

-12831 12831

3826 -3826

15508 -15508

-10701 10701

18076 -18076

Source : RBI Notes : PR: Partially Revised; P: Provisional

some deceleration in export growth owing to moderation in oil prices from an average of US$ 105.1 per barrel in 2013-14 (second quarter) to US$ 98.9 per barrel in 2014-15 (second quarter).The outcome in terms of imports was again somewhat mixed in the two quarters of the first half of the current fiscal relative to last year. This was largely due to the base effect of high gold imports in the first quarter of 2013-14 and a sharp

correction in such imports in the second quarter of 2013-14 as against a steady pick-up in the first quarter of 2014-15 followed by a surge in imports in the second quarter reflecting seasonal demand spike and the easing of restrictions on gold imports. The mixed outcome also owed to the pickup in non-gold non-POL imports in 2014-15 relative to the compression in 2013-14. Invisible account covers (a) services, (b) transfers, and

Economic Survey 2014-15

(c) income. The surplus therein has been a major factor that moderated the large trade deficits from spilling over to the CAD. Services (net) continued to be dominated by software exports and witnessed a growth of 2.4 per cent to US$ 36.1 billion in 2014-15 (April-September) as against US$ 35.2 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year (For services trade please refer to Chapter 7). Transfers (net)—mostly remittances—were around US$ 32.7 billion in the first half of both 2013-14 and 2014-15. While software services and remittances provide surpluses, net income is an outgo that reflects interest/dividends payable and has a large bearing on the level of net international investment position. Income (net) is dominated by investment income and was US$ 13.8 billion in 2014-15 (AprilSeptember) as against US$ 13.4 billion in 201314 (April-September). As a result of the above developments, CAD was placed at US $ 17.9 billion in 2014-15 (April-September) as against US$ 26.9 billion in the same period of 2013-14. As a proportion of GDP, the CAD declined from 3.1 per cent in the first half of 2013-14 to 1.9 per cent in the first half of 2014-15. Capital / finance account developments in 2014-15 (April-September) 4.31 There was marked improvement in the net capital/financial flows both in terms of quantum and quality in the first half of 2014-15. Net financial flows were at US$ 36.0 billion in the first half of 2014-15 compared to US$ 16.3 billion in the first half of 2013-14. Net foreign investment, an important financial flow, surged from US$ 7.8 billion in 2013-14 (April-September) to US$ 38.4 billion in 2014-15 (April-September). Net ECB was the other important item of the capital / finance account of the BoP which also improved from US$ 2.5 billion in 2013-14 (April-September) to US$ 3.4 billion in 2014-15 (April-September). Net banking capital witnessed a decline from US$ 11.5 billion to (-) US$ 0.5 billion during the same period. 4.32 The financial account was dominated by direct and portfolio investments which are non-

debt creating in nature. The net flows in the form of FDI and portfolio investment were more than sufficient to finance the CAD during this period. While higher net FDI flows reflect a positive outlook about the growth potential of the domestic economy, robust portfolio inflows in 2014-15 were underpinned by reduced external-sector vulnerabilities of the domestic economy and benign global financial conditions aided by the prospect of additional European Central Bank easing. Given the net capital flows and the CAD levels, accretion in foreign exchange reserves was US$ 18.1 billion (BoP basis) in the first half of 2014-15 as against drawdown of US$ 10.7 billion in 2013-14 (AprilSeptember). In 2014-15 (up to December 2014), there has been a net inflow of US$ 28.5 billion in foreign institutional investors (FII) investment as compared to an outflow of US$ 4.5 billion in the corresponding period of 2013-14. The latest data on FDI inflows (net) available is for the period April-December 2014 and places these inflows at US $ 24.2 billion as against a level of US $ 20.7 billion in the same period in 2013-14. In so far as non-resident Indian (NRI) deposits are concerned, the lower levels of US $ 10.0 billion in April-December 2014 relative to April-December 2013 (US$ 35.1billion) become broadly similar when adjusted for the one-off swap scheme. The above developments in the current and capital accounts indicate further accretion to reserves on BoP basis beyond the first half of the current fiscal.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES 4.33 Even though 2013-14 witnessed a sharp depreciation of the rupee in the initial part of the year with significant reserve drawdown, steps taken by the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) resulted in a rise in the stock of foreign exchange reserves which was placed at US$ 304.2 billion at end-March 2014 as against US$ 292.0 billion at end-March 2013. In the first half of 2014-15, India’s foreign exchange reserves increased by US$ 18.1 billion on BoP basis (i.e. excluding valuation effect). However, in nominal terms (i.e. including valuation effect) the increase

External Sector

Table 4.5 : Summary of Changes in Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ billion) Sl. No. Year

Foreign exchange reserves at the end of financial year (end-March)

Total increase (+) / decrease (-) in reserves

Increase /decrease in reserves on BoP basis

Increase/decrease in reserves due to valuation effect

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

309.7 252.0 279.1 304.8 294.4 292.0 304.2

110.5 -57.7 27.1 25.7 -10.4 -2.4 12.2

92.2 -20.1 13.4 13.1 -12.8 3.8 15.5

18.3 -37.6 13.7 12.6 2.4 -6.2 -3.3

End-Sep. 2014

313.8

9.6

18.1

-8.5

Source: RBI.

Table 4.6 : Foreign Exchange Reserves of Some Major Countries Sl. Country No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Foreign exchange reserves at end-Dec. 2014 (US$ billion)

China Japan Switzerland* Russian Federation Brazil Korea, Republic of* China, P.R. Hong Kong* India Germany Thailand* France* Italy*

3840.0# 1312.1 526.6 388.5 363.6 363.2 344.6 320.6 192.7 163.7 161.6 143.3

Source: IMF except India and China. Note: * Latest data available for the month of November 2014 only. # www.pbc.gov.cn

was only by US$ 9.6 billion with end-September, 2014 levels at US$ 313.8 billion (Table 4.5). 4.34 Among the major economies with current account deficit, India is the second largest foreign exchange reserve holder after Brazil (Table 4.6). Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s foreign exchange reserves at US$ 328.7 billion at end-January mainly comprised foreign currency assets amounting to US$ 303.3 billion, accounting for 92.3 per cent of the total. With increase in reserves in the first half of 2014-15,

all reserve-based traditional external-sector vulnerability indicators have improved. For instance, the ratio of short-term external debt to reserves has declined from 29.3 per cent at endMarch 2014 to 27.5 per cent as at-end September 2014, the reserves cover for imports has also increased from 7.8 months at end-March 2014 to 8.1 months as at-end September 2014.

EXCHANGE RATE 4.35 In 2013-14, global uncertainty following the May 2013 announcement by the US Fed about its intent to withdraw the quantitative easing led to a bout of depreciation in the currencies of emerging markets with varying intensities depending upon the external financing requirement as indicated by the levels of CAD. As India had elevated levels of CAD in 2011-13, which continued through the first quarter of 2013-14, the monthly exchange rate of the rupee against the US dollar depreciated by 14.7 per cent from ` 54.38 per US dollar in April 2013 to ` 63.75 per US dollar in September 2013. After stabilizing subsequently to reach ` 60.10 at end-March 2014, it was ` 60.36 per US dollar in April 2014. 4.36 The rupee-US dollar exchange rate has broadly remained stable during the year due to the huge inflow of FDI and FII in the equity and bond markets. Due to the weak economic outlook

Economic Survey 2014-15

Source: RBI.

in Europe and Japan, the rupee has appreciated against the euro and yen since September 2014 in tandem with cross-currency movements of the euro and yen vis-Ă -vis the US dollar. On point-to-point basis the rupee has depreciated by 3.3 per cent from ` 60.10 per US dollar on 28 March 2014 to ` 62.14 per US dollar on 13 February 2015. The rupee reached a low of ` 63.75 per US dollar on 30 December 2014 and a peak of ` 58.43 per US dollar on 19 May 2014. On month-to-month basis, the rupee depreciated by 2.0 per cent from ` 61.01 per US dollar in March 2014 to ` 62.23 per US dollar in January 2015 (Figure 4.1). However, the rupee has appreciated by 7.3 per cent, 16.1 per cent, and 13.6 per cent against the pound sterling, euro, and Japanese yen respectively between March 2014 and January 2015.The month-wise exchange rate of the rupee against major international currencies and the RBIâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s sale/ purchase of foreign currency in the foreign exchange market since April 2014 are given in Table 4.7. 4.37 On the whole, the rupee has exhibited resilience to global events in view of the aforesaid strong external-sector outcome. While in May 2013, it depreciated sharply on the concerns of

impact of US FED taper talk, it stabilized when the taper actually happened. As on 8 January 2015, the Indian rupee against the US dollar has depreciated modestly by 4.6 per cent over endMarch 2014 as compared with the Russian rouble (40.4 per cent), Brazilian real (14.2 per cent), Mexican peso (10.7 per cent), Indonesian rupiah (10.4 per cent), and South African rand (8.5 per cent) (Appendix Table 6.4). 4.38 Effective exchange rates are summary indicators of movement in the exchange rate of home currency against a basket of currencies of trade partner countries and are considered to be an indicator of international competitiveness. The real effective exchange rate (REER) indices are used as indicator of external competitiveness of the country over a period of time. The nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) is the weighted geometric average of the bilateral nominal exchange rates of the home currency in terms of foreign currencies. REER is defined as a weighted geometric average of nominal exchange rates of the home currency in terms of the foreign currencies adjusted for relative price differential. Although the rupee has depreciated against the US dollar, in

External Sector

Table 4.7 : Exchange Rates of Rupee per Foreign Currency and RBI’s Sale/Purchase of US Dollar during 2014-15 ` per foreign currency)a Average exchange rates (` Month

1 2013-14 (annual average) 2014-15 (monthly average) April 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014 August 2014 September 2014 October 2014 November 2014 December 2014 January 2015

US dollar

Pound sterling

Euro

Japanese yenb

RBI net sale (-)/ purchase (+) (US$ million)

60.50 (-10.1)

96.31 (-10.7)

81.17 (-13.7)

60.40 (9.0)

8992

60.36 (1.1) 59.31 (1.8) 59.73 (-0.7) 60.06 (-0.5) 60.90 (-1.4) 60.86 (0.05) 61.34 (-0.8) 61.70 (-0.6) 62.75 (-1.7) 62.23 (0.8)

101.08 (0.3) 99.94 (1.1) 100.98 (-1.0) 102.62 (-1.6) 101.81 (0.8) 99.31 (2.5) 98.72 (0.6) 97.28 (1.5) 98.11 (-0.8) 94.54 (3.8)

83.35 (1.2) 81.49 (2.3) 81.24 (0.3) 81.39 (-0.2) 81.14 (0.3) 78.60 (3.2) 77.91 (0.9) 76.99 (1.2) 77.36 (-0.5) 72.77 (6.3)

58.86 (1.3) 58.28 (1.0) 58.53 (-0.4) 59.07 (-0.9) 59.17 (-0.2) 56.77 (4.2) 56.87 (-0.2) 53.05 (7.2) 52.60 (0.9) 52.54 (0.1)

5870 1786 2642 5453 -511 1437 2703 3081 6739 —

Source : RBI. Notes : - : Not Available a. RBI reference rates. b. Per 100 Yen. Figures in parentheses indicate appreciation (+) and depreciation (-) over the previous month/year in per cent. Figures may not tally due to rounding off.

terms of NEER (36 currencies) it appreciated by 2.8 per cent in December 2014 over March 2014. Similarly, REER also appreciated by 5.8 per cent during the same period (Figure 4.2).

EXTERNAL DEBT 4.39 Post 1991 BoP crisis, India’s prudent external debt policies and management with a focus on sustainability, solvency, and liquidity have

helped contain the increase in size of external debt to a moderate level and it is compositionally better with a longer term maturity profile. India’s total external debt stock at end-March 2014 stood at US$ 442.3 billion, recording an increase of US$ 32.8 billion (8.0 per cent) over the end-March 2013 level. The rise in total external debt during the period was due to long-term debt, particularly NRI deposits. A sharp increase in NRI deposits

Economic Survey 2014-15

Source: RBI.

owed to fresh foreign currency non-resident account (banks) [FCNR(B)] deposits mobilized under the swap scheme during September to November 2013 to tide over the external financing needs. Long-term external debt at US$ 353.0 billion at end-March 2014 recorded an increase of 12.9 per cent over the end-March 2013 level, while short-term debt showed a decline of 7.7 per cent. Appendices 8.4(A) and 8.4(B) present the disaggregated data on India’s external debt outstanding in Indian rupee and US dollar terms respectively. 4.40 As per the latest data, India’s external debt stock increased by US$ 13.7 billion (3.1 per cent) to US$ 455.9 billion at end-September 2014 over the end-March 2014 level. The rise in external debt was on account of higher long-term debt, particularly commercial borrowings and NRI deposits. The maturity profile of India’s external

debt indicates the dominance of long-term borrowings. At end-September 2014, long-term debt accounted for 81.1 per cent of the total external debt vis-à-vis 79.8 per cent at end-March 2014. The share of short-term debt in total external debt declined from 20.2 per cent at end-March 2014 to 18.9 per cent at end-September 2014. Details of the composition of India’s external debt are presented in Table 4.8. 4.41 The currency composition of India’s total external debt shows that the share of US dollardenominated debt in external debt stock continued to be the highest at 60.1 per cent at endSeptember 2014, followed by Indian rupee (24.2 per cent), special drawing rights (SDR) (6.5 per cent), Japanese yen (4.5 per cent), and euro (3.0 per cent) denominated. The currency composition of government (sovereign) debt indicates predominance of SDR-denominated debt

External Sector

Table 4.8: Composition of External Debt Sl. No. Component

(Per cent to total external debt)

March 2012

March 2013 PR

March 2014 PR

September 2014 QE

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Multilateral Bilateral IMF Export credit Commercial borrowings NRI deposits Rupee debt Long-term debt (1 to 7) Short-term debt

14.0 7.4 1.7 5.3 33.3 16.2 0.4 78.3 21.7

12.6 6.1 1.5 4.3 34.2 17.3 0.3 76.4 23.6

12.1 5.6 1.4 3.5 33.5 23.5 0.3 79.8 20.2

11.7 5.1 1.3 3.4 35.4 23.8 0.3 81.1 18.9

Total external debt (8+9)

100.0

Source : Ministry of Finance and RBI. Notes : PR : Partially Revised;

QE : Quick Estimates.

(33.5 per cent), which is attributable to borrowing from the International Development Association (IDA), i.e. the soft loan window of the World Bank under the multilateral agencies, and SDR allocations by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). At end-September 2014, government (sovereign) external debt was US$ 88.4 billion. It accounted for 19.4 per cent of India’s total external debt. Non-government external debt amounted to US$ 367.5 billion which was 80.6 per cent of total external debt at end-September 2014. 4.42 Over the years, India’s external debt stock has witnessed structural change in terms of composition. The proportion of concessional in total debt declined from 42.9 per cent (average) during the period 1991-2000 to 28.1 per cent in 2001-10 and further to 9.8 per cent at endSeptember 2014. The dominance of nongovernment debt in total external debt is evident from the fact that such debt accounted for 65.6 per cent of total debt during the 2000s decade, vis-à-vis 45.3 per cent in the 1990s. Nongovernment debt accounted for over 70 per cent of total debt in the last five years and stood at 80.6 per cent at end-September 2014.The key external debt indicators are presented in Table 4.9. India’s foreign exchange reserves provided a cover of 68.9 per cent to the total external debt stock at

end-September 2014 vis-à-vis 68.8 per cent at end-March 2014. The ratio of short-term external debt to foreign exchange reserves was 27.5 per cent at end-September 2014 as against 29.3 per cent at end-March 2014. The ratio of concessional debt to total external debt declined steadily and stood at 9.8 per cent at end-September 2014 visà-vis 10.5 per cent at end-March 2014. 4.43 India’s external debt has remained within manageable limits as indicated by the external debt to GDP ratio of 23.5 per cent and debt service ratio of 5.9 per cent in 2013-14. The prudent external debt management policy of the Government of India has helped in containing rise in external debt and maintaining a comfortable external debt position. The policy continues to focus on monitoring long- and short-term debt, raising sovereign loans on concessional terms with longer maturities, regulating ECBs through enduse, all-in-cost, and maturity restrictions; and rationalizing interest rates on NRI deposits. International Comparison 4.44 Cross-country comparison of external debt based on the World Bank’s International Debt Statistics 2015, which contains the external debt data for the year 2013, indicates that India continues to be among the less vulnerable

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 4.9 : India’s Key External Debt Indicators (Per cent) Year

External Total Debt debt external service (US$ billion) debt ratio to GDP

1 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 PR 2013-14 PR End-Sept.2014 QE

Foreign exchange reserves to total external debt

Concessional debt to total external debt

Short-term external debt* to foreign exchange reserves

Short-term external term Debt* to total debt

317.9 360.8 409.5 442.3 455.9

18.2 20.9 22.3 23.5 -

4.4 6.0 5.9 5.9 -

95.9 81.6 71.3 68.8 68.9

14.9 13.3 11.1 10.5 9.8

21.3 26.6 33.1 29.3 27.5

20.4 21.7 23.6 20.2 18.9

Source: Ministry of Finance and RBI. Notes: PR: Partially Revised; QE: Quick Estimates

- : Not worked out for part of the year

*: Short-term debt is based on original maturity. Debt-service ratio is the proportion of gross debt service payments to external current receipts (net of official transfers).

countries. India’s key debt indicators compare well with other indebted developing countries. The ratio of India’s external debt stock to gross national income at 23.0 per cent was the sixth lowest. In terms of the cover provided by foreign

exchange reserves to external debt, India’s position was sixth highest at 64.7 per cent (For further details please see http:// www.finmin.nic.in/reports/ind_Ext_debt. asp)

Prices, Agriculture and Food Management

05 CHAPTER

After remaining high for a prolonged period, inflation is finally trending down. Average Wholesale Price Index inflation declined to 3.4 per cent in 2014-15 (AprilDecember) as compared to an average of 6 per cent during 2013-14. The WPI inflation even breached the psychological level of 0 per cent in November 2014 and January 2015. Consumer price inflation released by the Central Statistics Office (base 2012=100) reached 5.1 per cent in January 2015. This is lower than the targets of 8 per cent set for January 2015 and 6 per cent for January 2016 given by the Reserve Bank of India in its report on the new monetary policy framework. Prices of the major commodity groups contributing to high inflation, namely â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;eggs, meat, and fishâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;, fruits and vegetables, and fuel, have all softened. The major developments driving the stubborn inflation down were falling global commodity prices, especially of crude oil, decline in the growth rate of rural wages, moderation in the increase in minimum support prices as also slack in economic activity. In so far as high food inflation contributed to elevated headline inflation, for sustainability of low inflation the policy focus should be on enhancing the resilience of the agriculture sector and eliminating leakages, inclusion and exclusion errors, and various distortions created by the present food policy. Growth in agriculture has now to increasingly come from non-price factors. Markets for agricultural commodities have to be made more competitive in the interests of both producers and consumers. The High Level Committee headed by Shri Shanta Kumar has given useful recommendations on proposed changes in the food policy. The upside risk to inflation outlook also emanates from uncertainties surrounding the monsoon, international crude oil prices, and the stability in the value of the rupee, particularly in the event of monetary tightening by the US Fed.

TRENDS

WPI

AND

CPI INFLATION

Wholesale Price Index 5.2 Headline inflation measured in terms of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) (base year 200405=100) which remained persistently high at 6-9 per cent during 2011-13 moderated to a low of 3.4 per cent in 2014-15(April-December) on the back of lower food and fuel prices. During the

first quarter of 2014-15, WPI headline inflation was at 5.8 per cent as mainly food and fuel prices were high. In second and third quarters of 201415, WPI inflation declined to 3.9 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively (Table 5.1). WPI food inflation (weight: 24.3 per cent), which remained high at 9.4 per cent during 2013-14 moderated to 4.8 per cent during April-December 2014 following sharp correction in vegetables prices since

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 5.1 : Quarter-wise Inflation in WPI broad groups (in per cent) Weights Q1 All Commodities I. Primary Articles II. Fuel and Power III. Manufactured products All Food

2013-14 Q2 Q3

2014-15 Q2

Q3(P)

100.0 20.1 14.9 65.0 24.3

4.8 6.5 7.7 3.3 7.7

6.6 12.4 11.9 2.4 11.8

7.1 13.6 10.8 2.9 11.9

5.4 6.8 10.1 3.3 6.2

5.8 7.5 9.6 3.8 6.9

3.9 4.1 4.4 3.6 5.0

0.5 0.4 -4.0 2.0 2.5

55.0

2.6

2.4

3.1

3.7

4.0

3.6

2.0

Core Inflation

Source: Office of Eco. Adviser, Deptt. of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP)

December 2013 (except March 2014) and moderation in prices of cereals and eggs, meat, and fish. As fuel has larger weight in the WPI, the decline in fuel prices led to a sharper fall in the WPI as compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) (base year 2010=100). Inflation in manufactured products has remained within a narrow range since 2013-14. The WPI headline inflation (provisional) in January 2015 stood at -0.4 per cent. The build up inflation rate in the financial year till January 2015 was -1.1 percent compared to a build up rate of 5.2 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year. Consumer Price Index 5.3 The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has started releasing state-wise and all-India rural, urban, and combined CPIs since January 2011. Retail inflation as measured by the CPI (combined) (base year 2010=100) remained stubbornly sticky around 9-10 per cent for the last two years. Like WPI inflation, CPI inflation has also moderated

P: Provisional

significantly since the second quarter of 2014-15. It declined to an all-time low of 5 per cent in Q3 of 2014-15 (Table 5.2). The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had announced its intent to anchor its monetary policy stance to headline CPI (combined) inflation from April 2014.Taking note of the sustained moderation in retail prices, it has signalled easing of the monetary stance by reducing policy repo rates by 25 basis points from 8 per cent to 7.75 per cent on 15 January 2015. The CSO has revised the base year from 2010 to 2012 (Box 5.1) and released the revised series on 12th February, 2015 along with inflation data for January, 2015. CPI inflation in terms of the revised series stood at 5.1 percent in January, 2015. 5.4 Persistence of food inflation in recent years has been the major contributing factor in high headline inflation. There have been wide variations in inflation in commodities within food sub-groups across states, across commodities, and across seasons indicating supply constraints. Demand pressures exerted by high rates of growth of rural

Table 5.2 : Quarter-wise Inflation in CPI (base 2010=100) broad groups (in per cent) Weights Q1 General I. Food, beverages & tobacco II. Fuel and Light III. Others Food (CFPI) Core inflation (Non-food non-fuel) Source : CSO.

2013-14 Q2 Q3

2014-15 Q2

Q3(P)

100.0 49.7

9.5 11.0

9.7 11.1

10.4 12.9

8.4 9.2

8.1 8.9

7.4 8.6

5.0 4.8

9.5 40.8 42.7 42.9

8.4 7.9 11.1 8.0

7.9 8.2 11.4 8.2

7.0 8.0 13.6 8.1

6.3 7.9 9.3 8.0

5.2 7.6 9.1 7.7

4.0 6.7 8.8 6.8

3.4 5.5 4.5 5.7

P : Provisional.

Prices, Agriculture and Food Management

Box 5.1 : Changes in CPI New Series The CSO, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) has been, since January 2011, releasing separate rural, urban, and combined CPIs on monthly basis with base year (2010=100) for all-India and states/UTs. In addition to this, separate rural, urban, and combined Consumer Food Price Indices (CFPI) for all India were released from May 2014. The weighting diagram for the new CPI series was derived on the basis of average monthly consumer expenditure of an urban/rural household obtained from the Consumer Expenditure Survey data (2004-05) of 61st Round of the National Sample Survey (NSS). The CSO has revised the base year of the Consumer Price Index from 2010=100 to 2012=100 and the revised index numbers were released on 12 February 2015. The basket of items and weighting diagrams for the revised series have been prepared by using the Modified Mixed Reference period ( MMRP) data of the Consumption Expenditure Survey, 2011-12 of the 68th Round of NSS.

wages were mostly reflected in high prices of protein items like, milk, eggs, meat, and fish and also fruits and vegetables. 5.5 During 2014-15, particularly in the third quarter, CPI food inflation declined considerably as compared to the previous year, partly on account of base effect, but also due to the seasonal softening of fruit and vegetable prices. Late arrival

Source: DIPP, CSO

of the monsoon exerted some pressure on vegetable prices during June-August 2014, but the prices came down subsequently which helped significantly in the moderation of overall CPI inflation. CPI inflation in the fuel and light group registered consistent decline during 2014-15, touching 3.4 per cent in the third quarter following the sharp decline in international crude oil prices. Core inflation (non-food non-fuel) declined to 5.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2014-15 as against 8.1 per cent in the corresponding quarter of the previous year largely on account of the slack in economic activity. Housing and transport contributed to the significant decline in core inflation. Inflation in housing declined to 8 per cent in the third quarter of 2014-15, after remaining in double digits during 2012 and 2013. Inflation in the transport and communication sub-group under the miscellaneous category registered a significant decline of 1.8 per cent during the third quarter of 2014-15, in line with the continued easing of global crude oil prices. In the sub-category others, which largely includes services, inflation dropped to 8.5 per cent during the same period after experiencing double-digit inflation through 2012 and 2013. The overall trends in WPI and CPI inflation are shown in Figure 5.1.

Economic Survey 2014-15

5.6 Inflation momentum based on the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), three monthon-three month (3m-o-3m) inched up in December 2014 after a sharp decline over the previous few months (Figure 5.2).

FACTORS CAUSING MODERATION IN INFLATION

5.7 The decline in inflation during the year turned out to be much faster than was anticipated in the initial months of the year. Global factors, namely persistent decline in crude prices and softness in the global prices of tradables, particularly edible oils and even coal, helped moderate headline inflation. The tight monetary policy helped contain

Source: World Bank Pink Sheet

demand pressures, creating a buffer against any external shock and keeping volatility in the value of the rupee under check. During the last one year, the rupee remained relatively stable vis-Ă -vis the currency of peer emerging countries, which too had sobering influence on inflation. Moderation in wage rate growth reduced demand pressures on protein-based items. Base effect also contributed to the decline in headline inflation. Global inflation 5.8 As per the World Bank Commodities Price Data (Pink Sheet), global commodity prices have shown a declining trend during 2014. The energy price index fell by 40 per cent from June 2014 to December 2014. The food index and base metal

Prices, Agriculture and Food Management

Source: DIPP

index declined by 8 per cent and 3 per cent respectively during the same period. The trend in world commodity prices is indicated in Figure 5.3. 5.9 As against the 40 per cent decline in global energy prices, the Indian energy price index measured in terms of WPI fuel and power declined by only 10 per cent during the period June â&#x20AC;&#x201C; December 2014. Figure 5.4 charts the movement of the WPI price indices. Though international oil prices started declining from July 2014, there has been greater alignment of international and domestic prices after the deregulation of diesel in October 2014.

Source: FAO & DIPP

5.10 The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) food index shows that there has been a continuous decline in the food index since March 2014, mainly on account of abundant production as well as weakening demand. While the FAO food index declined by about 13 per cent during March-December 2014 following significant decline in dairy, cereal, oil and sugar prices, the Indian food index (WPI) increased by about 6 per cent during the same period. Figure 5.5 compares the domestic and FAO food indices. The difference between the domestic food and FAO food indices indicates that the domestic food

Economic Survey 2014-15

market is not integrated with the international market. The divergence in the domestic and international food prices stems from the various restrictions in domestic food and trade policy imposed to protect either farmers or consumers. Moderating growth rate of wages 5.11 High growth rates in rural income/wages (Figure 5.6) triggered by substantial increases in minimum support prices (MSP) and the launch of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGA) created demand pressures on protein items and eggs, meat, and fish. The high wages also acted through increasing cost of production for agricultural commodities, thereby triggering a rise in MSPs. Since fruits and vegetables and allied agricultural activities draw from a common pool of labour, the higher wages-induced cost-push inflation was observed in the entire basket of food commodities. Prices of edible oils and pulses which are freely allowed to be imported remained subdued. Measures taken by the Government to control inflation 5.12 The swift decisive steps taken by the government also helped control the stubbornly persistent inflationâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;particularly food inflation. The decline in inflation is found to be substantial in

Source: Labour Bureau

commodities where the government had taken effective measures. The government took a series of measures to improve availability of food-grains and de-clog the distribution channel. Some of the major steps taken recently in this regard include: a) Allocation of additional 5 million tonnes of rice to below and above poverty line (BPL and APL) families in the states, pending implementation of the National Food Security Act (NFSA), and allocation of 10 million tonnes of wheat under open market sales for domestic market in 2014-15; b) Moderation in increases in the MSPs during the last and current season; c) Advisory to the states to allow free movement of fruits and vegetables by delisting them from the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) Act; d) Bringing onions and potatoes under the purview of the Essential Commodities Act 1955, thereby allowing state governments to impose stock limits to deal with cartelization and hoarding, and making violation of stock limits a non-bailable offence; e) Imposing a minimum export price (MEP) of US$ 450 per MT for potatoes with effect from 26 June 2014 and US$ 300 per MT for onions with effect from 21August 2014.

Prices, Agriculture and Food Management

5.13 For keeping food inflation low in a sustainable manner, more radical measures will have to be taken to revamp agriculture- and foodsector production, storage, marketing, and distribution â&#x20AC;&#x201C; including the public distribution system (PDS) and NFSA.

HOUSEHOLD INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 5.14 Since September 2005, the RBI has been conducting quarterly inflation expectation surveys of households. The results of the latest survey covering 5000 urban households across 16 cities were released in December 2014. The survey captures the inflation expectations for the next three-month and one-year period. The current inflation perceptions and inflation expectations have moderated in the latest round (Figure 5.7). 5.15 As can be seen from Figure 5.7, median inflation expectations over the next three months and one year have corrected sharply during the latest survey ( December 2014) to 8.3 per cent from 14.6 per cent and to 8.9 per cent from 16 per cent in the previous quarter respectively. The sharp correction in expectations in the latest round (38th round) and the general deviation from actual inflation figures indicate excessive pessimism reflected in the household inflation expectation surveys.

Source: RBI.

5.16 The upside risk to this outlook emanates from the fact that crude oil prices will have to bottom out from these levels, though it is unlikely that they will flare up in a short space of time. Also, the lower acreage in oilseeds and pulses during the current rabi harvesting season could create supply pressures. Given the capacity constraints in warehousing and cold-storage, seasonal commodities may also add to the inflation risk.

AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT 5.17 The agriculture sector registered an annual growth of 3.8 per cent in value added in the decade since 2004-05 on the back of increase in real prices (31 per cent during 2004-05 to 2011-12). The committee set up by the Ministry of Agriculture under the chairmanship of S. Mahendra Dev to come up with updated methodology to compute terms of trade between agriculture and nonagriculture has observed that, during 2004-05 and 2013-14, terms of trade have become favourable for agriculture. The ratio of WPI agriculture to WPI non-agriculture has also risen steeply after 200506 (Figure 5.8).

Economic Survey 2014-15

Source: DIPP, CSO.

5.18 A rising concern in recent times has been the high level of food inflation, seasonal and shortterm price spikes in some commodities like onions, tomatoes, and potatoes which have become more frequent, more severe, and more lasting, hurting consumers and causing economic instability. A strategy of price-led growth in agriculture is, therefore, not sustainable; also the room for increasing production through raising cropped area

is virtually non-existent. Hence the strategy for growth in agriculture has to rely more on non-price factors, viz., yield and productivity.

OVERVIEW OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 5.19 According to the new series of national income released by the CSO, at 2011-12 prices the share of agriculture in total GDP is 18 per cent

Table 5.3 : Agriculture Sector â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Key indicators (per cent at 2011-12 prices) Sl. No. Item 1

Growth in GDP in agriculture & allied sectors Share of agriculture & allied sectors in total GDP Crops Livestock Forestry and logging Fishing Share of agriculture & allied Sectors in total GCF Crops Livestock Forestry and logging Fishing GCF in agriculture & allied Sectors as per cent to GDP of the sector (at current 2011-12 prices)

Source : CSO. Note : GCF is Gross Capital Formation.

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

18.4 12.0 4.0 1.6 0.8 8.6 7.4 0.8 0.1 0.4 18.3

1.2 18.0 11.7 4.0 1.5 0.8 7.7 6.5 0.7 0.1 0.4 15.5

3.7 18.0 11.8 3.9 1.4 0.9 7.9 6.6 0.7 0.1 0.5 14.8

1.1

N.A.

Prices, Agriculture and Food Management

in 2013-14. As against a growth target of 4 per cent for agriculture and allied sectors in the Twelfth Plan, the growth registered in the first year at 201112 prices was 1.2 per cent, 3.7 per cent in 201314, and 1.1 per cent in 2014-15 (Table 5.3).

AREA, PRODUCTION, AND YIELD 5.20 Table 5.4 gives area, production, and yield figures for different crops in 2013-14. In 201314, total foodgrain production has been estimated at 265.6 million tonnes as per the second Advance Estimates (AE), which is higher by 8.5 million tonnes than the 2012-13 production and 22.1 million tonnes than average foodgrain production during the last five years. 5.21 As per the 2nd Advance Estimates for 2014-15, total foodgrains production in the country is estimated at 257.07 million tonnes which is the fourth highest quantity of annual foodgrains production in the country. It may be noted that despite deficiency of 12% in the monsoon rainfall during the year, the loss in production has been

restricted to just around 3% over the previous year and has exceeded the average production during the last five years by 8.15 million tonnes. 5.22 As compared to last year’s production of 265.57 million tonnes, current year’s production of foodgrains is lower by 8.5 million tonnes. This decline has occurred on account of lower production of rice, coarse, cereals and pulses due to erratic rainfall conditions during the monsoon season-2014. 5.23 To improve resilience of the agricultural sector and bolster food security—including availability and affordable access—our strategy for agriculture has to focus on improving yield and productivity. Though yield/productivity in foodgrains and pulses has increased post-2000, the yield gaps vis-à-vis other countries are wide and even within different states yields vary widely, showing that there are possibilities of raising production by increasing yield of most of the crops without necessarily increasing prices (Table 5.5).

Table 5.4 : Area, Production, and Yield (2013-14*) Group/ commodity

Area

Per cent change in area

Foodgrainsa Rice Wheat Jowar Maize Bajra Pulses Gram Tur Oilseeds Groundnut Rapeseed and mustard Cottonb Sugarcane

126.0 43.9 31.2 5.8 9.4 7.9 25.2 10.2 3.9 28.5 5.5 6.7 11.7 5.0

4.3 2.7 4.0 -6.1 8.3 8.0 8.3 20.3 0.0 7.6 17.6 4.7 -2.3 0.0

(Area: million ha; Prod.: million tonnes; Yield: kg/ha) Production Per cent Yield per cent change in change production in yield 264.8 106.5 95.9 5.4 24.4 9.2 19.3 9.9 3.3 32.9 9.7 8.0 36.7 350.0

3.0 1.3 2.6 1.7 9.2 5.5 5.3 12.3 9.7 6.4 105.8 -0.5 7.2 2.6

Source : Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation. Notes : *Fourth AE. a Includes cereals, coarse cereals, and pulses. b

Bales of 170 kg.

2101 2424 3075 850 2566 1198 764 967 848 1153 1750 1188 532 70

-1.3 -1.5 -1.3 -8.2 -0.7 2.9 -3.2 -6.7 9.2 -1.3 75.9 -5.9 9.4 0.0

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 5.5 : Average, Maximum, and Minimum Yield of Major Crops 2013-14 Yield (kg/ha) Crops

All-India average

Maximum

Minimum

Rice

2416

Punjab (3952)

Madhya Pradesh (1474)

Wheat

3145

Punjab (5017)

Andhra Pradesh (500)

Maize

2676

Tamil Nadu (5372)

Assam (898)

Jowar

957

Andhra Pradesh (1661)

West Bengal (280)

Gram

960

Andhra Pradesh (1439)

Tamil Nadu (653)

Tur

813

Bihar (1667)

Andhra Pradesh (542)

Groundnut

1764

Gujarat (2668)

Himachal Pradesh (600)

Rapeseed & Mustard

1185

Gujarat (1723)

Tamil Nadu (241)

Soyabean

1012

Andhra Pradesh (1612)

Uttar Pradesh (577)

Sugarcane

70522

West Bengal (114273)

Jammu & Kashmir (1000)

Cotton#

510

Punjab (750)

Maharashtra (358)

Source : Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation Note : # Thousand bales of 170 kg each.

5.24 An inverse relationship is noticed between increase in yield over time and the average cost of production of various crops in real terms. For example, for rabi crops a 10 per cent increase in yield resulted in a 2.1 per cent to 8.1 per cent decline in the average cost of production of various crops in real terms. (Price Policy for Kharif Crops, February 2014, pp. 67—69, CACP). This clearly points towards the fact that productivity increases, especially in low productivity states/regions, can significantly contribute towards reducing cost-push food inflation. 5.25. Yield is contingent upon several factors like variety and quality of seeds, soil quality, irrigation – including quality of water—fertilizers— including their proportion—pesticides, labour, and extension services. Prices received by farmers and the certainty or assurance of getting a particular price also incentivize farmers to take to a particular crop and use quality inputs in its cultivation. The status of some of these factors in India is described in the following paragraphs.

DRIVERS OF GROWTH Agricultural Research and Education 5.26 The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) is engaged in developing new crop

varieties with specific traits that improve yield and nutritional quality along with tolerance / resistance to various biotic and abiotic stresses. Besides, it matches crop production and protection technologies to target agro-ecologies. A total of 104 varieties of different crops were released for different agro-ecological niches. To ensure effective seed chain for making quality seed available to farmers, 11,835 tonnes of breeder seeds of recommended varieties of different field crops were developed. The adoption of improved varieties and crop management technologies has resulted in enhancement of production and productivity of cereals, pulses, and other field crops. 5.27 While greater outlay on applied research, education, and extension will result in more assured outcome in terms of reduction in average cost and increase in average yield/productivity, and growth, the paradigm shift in yield/productivity required for the second green revolution can be achieved, with greater outlay on basic research by creating research institutions on the pattern of Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) and Indian Institutes of Sciences (IIS). It is imperative to make Indian agricultural growth science-led by shedding ‘technology fatigue’. Budget 2014-15 provided for the establishment of two institutes of excellence

Prices, Agriculture and Food Management

in Assam and Jharkhand with an initial sum of ` 100 crore. Agricultural Extension 5.28 The NSSO 70th round survey indicates that about 59 per cent of farmers do not get much technical assistance and know-how from government-funded farm research institutes or extension services. So they have to rely on progressive farmers, media, and private commercial agents such as dealers of farm inputs like seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides for technical information. To ensure last-mile connectivity, extension services need to be geared up to address emerging technological and information needs. Effectiveness of the lab-to-farm programme can be improved by leveraging information technology and e- and mobile (m-) applications, participation of professional NGOs, etc. The Budget 2014-15 allocation of Rs100 crore to Kisan TV for disseminating realtime information to farmers regarding new farming techniques, water conservation, organic farming, etc. will partly make up for the existing adverse ratio of one extension worker for every 800 to 1000 farmers and provide farmers a direct interface with agricultural experts.

Source: Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC).

Irrigation 5.29 The central government initiated the Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme (AIBP) in 1996-97 for the completion of incomplete irrigation schemes. Under the AIBP, ` 67,195.47 crore of central loan assistance (CLA)/grant has been released up to 31 December 2014. An irrigation potential of 85.03 lakh ha is reported to have been created under the AIBP by states from major / medium /minor irrigation projects till March 2013. The Command Area Development Programme has also been amalgamated with the AIBP to reduce the gap between irrigation potential that has been created and that is utilized. Suggestions for a National Water Grid for transferring water from water surplus to water deficit areas have been made from time to time. In spite of these schemes, Indian agriculture is still heavily rainfall dependent with just 35 per cent of total arable area being irrigated, and distribution of irrigation across states is highly skewed. Focus on micro-irrigation systems like drips and sprinklers would significantly increase water-use efficiency and productivity. The wide gap between gross cropped area and gross irrigated area which has not improved much since the First Five Year Plan period needs to be bridged for increasing productivity, production, and resilience (Figure 5. 9).

Economic Survey 2014-15

Seeds 5.30 Seed is the basic input for enhancing agricultural production and productivity. Efficacy of all other agricultural inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation as well as impact of agroclimatic conditions is largely determined by the quality of the seed used. It is estimated that the quality of seed accounts for 20-25 per cent of agricultural productivity. An overall requirement of 343.55 lakh quintals of certified/quality seeds for 2014-15 (kharif and rabi) is estimated by the states. Against this, 351.76 lakh quintals of certified/ quality seed is available. An overall surplus of 8.21 lakh quintals seed is thus available for 2014-15. During 2014-15, there has been shortfall in the availability of certified/quality gram, lentil, pea, soyabean, and potato seeds. Given our import dependence on oils and pulses and susceptibility of potato to inflation, steps are necessary to avoid shortages of certified seeds of these commodities. Given the lack of evidence on negative consequences from Bt and other genetically modified (GM) crops, and the significant potential productivity, food security, and sustainability benefits, the corresponding regulatory frameworks and their implementation deserve rethinking. Fertilizers 5.31 The following major initiatives were taken in the fertilizer policy of the government in 201415: (i) Notification of the Modified New Pricing Scheme (NPS-III) for existing urea units on 2 April 2014 in order to address the issue of underrecoveries of the existing urea units on account of freezing of fixed cost at the 2002-03 level. The modified policy has been implemented for a period of one year from the date of notification. (ii) Further, the government had notified the New Investment Policy 2012 on 2 January 2013 to facilitate fresh investment in the urea sector to make India self-sufficient. The amendment to New Investment Policy â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2012 has been notified by the Department of Fertilizers on 7 October 2014. As against the targets for domestic production of 89.68 lakh tonnes and 33.51 lakh tonnes for nitrogen and phosphate for April-November 2014,

actual production was 82.86 lakh tonnes and 25.05 lakh tonnes respectively. Credit 5.32 The following measures have been taken for improving agricultural credit flow and bringing down the rate of interest on farm loans: (i) Agricultural credit flow target for 2013-14 was fixed at ` 7,00,000 crore and achievement was ` 7,30,765 crore (Provisional), as against ` 6,07,375 crore in 2012-13. Agricultural credit flow target for 2014-15 has been fixed at ` 8,00,000 crore against which achievement has been ` 3,70,828.60 crore (Provisional) up to 30 September, 2014. (ii) Farmers have been availing of crop loans up to a principal amount of ` 3,00,000 at 7 per cent rate of interest. The effective rate of interest for farmers who promptly repay their loans is 4 per cent per annum during 2014-15. (iii) In order to discourage distress sale of crops by farmers, the benefit of interest subvention has been made available to small and marginal farmers having Kisan Credit Cards for a further period of up to six months (post- harvest) against negotiable warehouse receipts (NWRs) at the same rate as available to crop loan. Other farmers have been granted post-harvest loans against NWRs at the commercial rates. (iv) From 2014-15, in order to provide relief to farmers on occurrence of natural calamities, interest subvention of 2 per cent will continued to be available to banks for the first year on the restructured loan amount on account of natural calamities and such restructured loans will attract normal rate of interest from the second year onwards as per the policy laid down by RBI. 5.33 The Interest Subvention Scheme for shortterm production credit (crop loans) which was started by the Government of India in 2006-07 was extended to private-sector banks from 201314. Presently the total number of loan accounts stands at 5.72 crore. Studies conducted by the RBI and National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) indicate that the crop loans are not reaching intended beneficiaries and there are no systems and procedures in place at several bank branches to monitor the end-use of funds. Also, although overall credit flow to the

Prices, Agriculture and Food Management

agriculture sector has increased over the years, the share of long-term credit in agriculture or investment credit declined from 55 per cent in 2006-07 to 39 per cent in 2011-12. According to NSSO 70th round data, as much as 40 per cent of the finances of farmers still comes from informal sources, despite an increase in the flow of institutional credit to agriculture in recent years. Usurious moneylenders account for a 26 per cent share of total agricultural credit. 5.34 Inadequate targeting of beneficiaries and monitoring/supervision of the end-use of shortterm crop loans for which interest subvention scheme is applicable and decline in long-term/ investment credit to agriculture are issues that need to be addressed on priority basis. Mechanization 5.35 Agricultural mechanization increases productivity of land and labour by meeting timeliness of farm operations and increases work output per unit time. Besides its paramount contribution to the multiple cropping and diversification of agriculture, mechanization also enables efficient utilization of inputs such as seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation water. Although India is one of the top countries in agricultural production,

Source: DAC.

the current level of farm mechanization, which varies across states, averages around 40 per cent as against more than 90 per cent in developed countries. Farm mechanization in India has been growing at a rate of less than 5 per cent in the last two decades. The main challenges to farm mechanization are, first, a highly diverse agriculture with different soil and climatic zones, requiring customized farm machinery and equipment and, second, largely small landholdings with limited resources. Credit flow for farm mechanization is less than 3 per cent of the total credit flow to the agriculture sector.A dedicated Sub-Mission on Agricultural Mechanization has been initiated in the Twelfth Plan, with focus on spreading farm mechanization to small and marginal farmers and regions that have low farm power availability. GCF in Agriculture and Allied Sectors 5.36 The GCF in agriculture and allied sectors relative to agri-GDP in this sector has shown an improvement from 13.5 per cent in 2004-05 to 21.2 per cent in 2012-13 at 2004-05 prices (Figure 5.10). Given the vast investment needs of the sector, greater public investment would only help increase private investment.

Economic Survey 2014-15

MAJOR SCHEMES OF THE GOVERNMENT Rahtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY) 5.37 The government has approved continuation of the RKVY scheme during the Twelfth Plan whereby RKVY funding will be routed into three components, viz. production growth, infrastructure & assets, & sub-schemes and flexi-fund. The proposed allocation for implementation of this scheme during 2015-16 is ` 18,000 crore. In view of the need to increase capital formation and get higher returns on investments, states are at liberty to spend up to 100 per cent of total outlay in the infrastructure and asset creation component. The National Food Security Mission 5.38 The National Food Security Mission (NFSM) is being implemented with the new target of additional production of 25 million tonnes of foodgrains comprising 10 million tonnes rice, 8 million tonnes wheat, 4 million tonnes pulses, and 3 million tonnes coarse cereals by the end of the Twelfth Five Year Plan (2016-17). The revamped NFSM is being implemented from 2014-15 in 619 districts of 28 states. In addition to rice, wheat and pulses, crops like coarse cereals and commercial crops (sugarcane, cotton, and jute) have been included since 2014-15. Promotion of farmer producer organizations (FPOs), value addition, dal mill, and assistance for custom hiring charges have also been undertaken under the Mission. The pulses component has been allocated fifty per cent of total funds under the NFSM in order to increase their production. To promote the use of bio-fertilizers, subsidy on bio-fertilizer has also been enhanced from ` 100 per ha to ` 300 per ha. Mission for Integrated Development of Horticulture (MIDH) 5.39 With effect from 2014-15, the Mission for Integrated Development of Horticulture (MIDH) has been operationalized by bringing all ongoing schemes on horticulture under a single umbrella. Production and distribution of quality planting material, productivity improvement measures through protected cultivation, use of micro-

irrigation, adoption of integrated pest management and integrated nutrient management along with creation of infrastructure for post-harvest management and marketing are focus areas of the MIDH.

SUSTAINABILITY AND ADAPTABILITY 5.40 Concerns have been raised for quite some time about non-sustainability of the present cropping pattern and use of water resources. The following initiatives announced in Budget 201415 have brought the issue of sustainability and climate adaptation to the forefront: The Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana with allocation of ` 1000 crore.  Neeranchal, a new programme with an initial outlay of ` 2142 crore in 2014 to give additional impetus to watershed development in the country,  The National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change, with an initial sum of ` 100 crore, and  A scheme to provide, in mission mode, a soil health card to every farmer, with an allocation of ` 100 crore. An additional amount of ` 56 crore has been allocated to set up 100 mobile soil-testing laboratories across the country. 

ALLIED SECTORS: ANIMAL HUSBANDRY, DAIRYING, AND FISHERIES 5.41 Indian agricultural system is predominantly a mixed crop-livestock farming system, with the livestock segment supplementing farm incomes by providing employment, draught animals, and manure. India ranks first in milk production, accounting for 17 per cent of world production. During 2013-14, milk production peaked at 137.69 MT, thus becoming an important secondary source of income for 70 million rural households engaged in dairying. The average yearon-year growth rate of milk, at 4.18 per cent visà-vis the world average of 2.2 per cent, shows sustained growth in availability of milk and milk products for the growing population.

Prices, Agriculture and Food Management

5.42 In the poultry segment, the governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s focus, besides framing suitable policies for enhancing commercial poultry production, is on strengthening the family poultry system, which addresses livelihood issues. Egg production was around 73.89 billion in 2013-14, while poultry meat production was estimated at 2.68 MT. 5.43 Fisheries constitute about 1 per cent of the GDP of the country and 4.75 per cent of agriculture GDP. The total fish production during 2013-14 was 9.58 MT, an increase of 5.96 per cent over 2012-13. Fish production during the first two quarters of 2014-15 has also shown an increasing trend and is estimated at 4.37 MT (Provisional). 5.44 For sustainable and continuous growth of the livestock sector by emulating the success achieved in the dairy and poultry sectors, across species and regions, the National Livestock Mission has been launched in 2014-15 with an approved outlay of ` 2,800 crore during the Twelfth Plan. This Mission is formulated with the objective of sustainable development of the livestock sector, focusing on improving availability of quality feed and fodder, risk coverage, effective extension, improved flow of credit, and organization of livestock farmers / rearers. Given the high contribution of protein items in inflation,

the growth rate of this sector has to match the rising demand reflected in increasing share of these items in consumption expenditure.

FOOD MANAGEMENT 5.45 The principal policy objective of food management is to ensure food security, particularly for the vulnerable, through timely and efficient procurement and distribution of foodgrains. This involves procurement of foodgrains from farmers at remunerative prices, building up and maintenance of buffer stocks, storage, movement, and distribution of foodgrains to consumers at affordable prices and stability of foodgrain prices. The price instruments used are MSP and central issue price (CIP). Price Policy for Agricultural Produce 5.46 As mandated, the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) recommends MSPs at national level for twentythree crops, but effectively price support operates primarily in wheat and rice and that too in selected states. This creates incentive structures highly skewed in favour of wheat and rice. While the country is dependent on imports for pulses and oilseeds (edible oils), their prices often fall below the MSP as there is no effective price support.

Source: Commission for Agricultural Costs & Prices (CACP).

Economic Survey 2014-15

Since 2012-13, the growth of MSPs of various crops has been the moderate (Figure 5.11). Procurement 5.47 To enhance efficiency of procurement and public distribution and to extend the benefits of MSP to local farmers, the Decentralized Procurement (DCP) scheme has been adopted by some state governments. The central government is urging all state governments to adopt the DCP scheme so that costs of distribution can be saved and outreach of price support mechanism to the farmers in hitherto weaker areas can be improved. To overcome the problem of gaps in the flow of information about procurement operations on day-to-day basis, an Online Procurement Monitoring System (OPMS) has been evolved for reporting and monitoring on a daily basis, procurement operations for wheat, paddy, and coarse grains in the country. 5.48 Two decisions that will impact procurement and stocks of rice and wheat from kharif marketing season (KMS) 2014-15 and rabi marketing season (RMS) 2015-16 are: (a) To limit procurement from states that are declaring bonus

over and above the MSP to the extent of targeted PDS (TPDS)/other welfare schemes (OWS) requirements (In the case of non-DCP states declaring bonus, the FCI will not take part in MSP operations in those states.) and (b) To cap the percentage of levy on rice at 25 per cent. 5.49 This decision has successfully led to dropping of the practice of giving bonus over and above MSP for paddy in states like Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh in KMS 2014-15 and it is expected that the state governments of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will avoid giving bonus for wheat also in RMS 2015-16 in view of this policy. The procurement levels in KMS 2014-15 are lower in both Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh as compared to the previous year and there is reemergence of competition in the market. Table 5.6 gives procurement, off-stake and stock figures from 2003. Buffer Stocks 5.50 The buffer norms for foodgrains in the central pool which were in existence since April 2005 have been revised in the backdrop of increased off-take of foodgrains under the TPDS in the last few years and with the coming into force

Table 5.6 : Public Distribution System: Procurement, Off-Take, and Stocks (million tonnes) Year Rice

Procurement Wheat Total

Rice

Off-take Wheat

Total

Rice

Stocks Wheat

Total

2003-04 2004-05

22.9 24.7

15.8 16.8

38.7 41.5

25.0 23.2

24.3 18.3

49.3 41.5

13.1 13.3

6.9 4.1

20.7 18.0

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15*

27.6 25.1 28.7 34.1 32.0 34.2 35.0 34.0 31.3 16.2

14.8 9.2 11.1 22.7 25.4 22.5 28.3 38.2 25.1 28.0

42.4 34.3 39.9 56.8 57.4 56.7 63.4 72.2 56.4 44.2

25.1 25.1 25.2 24.6 27.4 29.9 32.1 32.6 29.2 4.5

17.2 11.7 12.2 14.9 22.4 23.1 24.2 30.1 28.2 3.8

42.3 36.8 37.4 39.5 49.7 53.0 56.3 62.8 57.4 8.3

13.7 13.2 13.8 21.6 26.7 28.8 33.4 35.5 30.6 23.5

2.0 4.7 5.8 13.4 16.1 15.4 20.0 24.2 17.8 37.3

16.6 17.9 19.8 35.6 43.3 44.3 53.4 59.8 49.5 61.6

Source : Ministry of Food, Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution, Government of India. Note: * as on 9.1.2015.

Prices, Agriculture and Food Management

5.53 High economic cost necessitated a detailed review of the open-ended procurement policy, especially in states that offer high bonus on top of MSP and those that impose high taxes and statutory levies, as well as stocking and distribution policies. In this regard, the government set up a High Level Committee (HLC) in August 2014 under the chairmanship of Shri Shanta Kumar to suggest inter-alia restructuring or unbundling of the FCI with a view to improving its operational efficiency and financial management. The gist of its main recommendations is given in Box 5.2.

Table 5.7: Revision in Buffer Stock Norms (in million tonnes) As on

Existing since April 2005

Revised

1 April 1July 1 Oct.

21.2 31.9 21.2

21.04 41.12 30.77

1Jan.

25.0

21.41

of the NFSA with effect from 5 July 2013.The revised buffer norms are shown in Table 5.7. 5.51 As against the buffer stock norm of 21.41 million tonnes of rice and wheat (as on 1January of each year), total central pool stocks were 61.6 million tonnes as on 1 January 2015. Considering that the economic cost to the FCI for acquiring, storing, and distributing foodgrains is about 4050 per cent more than the procurement price, the locked in extra stocks, particularly for the last five years in a row, reflect flaws in the food policy. This has also resulted in high cereal inflation despite bumper produce and overflowing stocks.

Open Market Sale Scheme (Domestic)

Economic Cost of Foodgrains to the FCI

5.54 The FCI on behalf of the government has been undertaking sale of wheat at predetermined prices/reserve prices in the open market from time to time to enhance market supply of foodgrains; to exercise a moderating influence on open market prices and to offload surplus stocks. Under the Open Market Sale Scheme (Domestic), during the year 2014-15, 100 lakh tonnes of wheat has been allocated for sale in the domestic market. Deviating from the earlier practice, this year the government has adopted a policy of differential prices to encourage sale of older stock first. The government is consciously keeping the reserve price above MSP, but reasonably below the acquisition cost or economic cost of wheat, so that the buyers remain attracted to purchase of wheat from the mandis during the harvest season and the market remains competitive. At the same time the market price in the lean season does not increase much and inflation remains under check.

5.52 The economic cost of foodgrains consists of three components, namely the MSP including central bonus, if applicable, as the price paid to farmers, procurement incidentals, and the cost of distribution. The economic cost for both wheat and rice witnessed significant increase during the last few years due to increase in MSPs and proportionate increase in incidentals as well as other costs as depicted in Table 5.8. Table 5.8 : Economic Cost of Rice and Wheat Year Rice Pooled cost of food grains Procurement incidentals Distribution cost Economic cost Wheat Pooled cost of food grains Procurement incidentals Distribution cost Economic cost

(`/quintals)

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14(Prov.)

2014-15 (RE)

1446.53 313.09 223.49 1983.11

1512.20 350.00 260.74 2122.94

1633.83 383.76 287.28 2304.87

1788.96 435.13 374.26 2598.35

1925.52 462.13 430.26 2817.91

1064.32 212.38 217.65 1494.35

1119.18 235.68 240.39 1595.25

1219.41 263.35 269.81 1752.57

1273.57 331.81 326.87 1932.25

1346.64 339.00 361.92 2047.56

Economic Survey 2014-15

Box 5.2 : Recommendations of High Level Committee on restructuring FCI On procurement related issues:  The FCI should hand over all procurement operations of wheat, paddy, and rice to states that have gained

sufficient experience in this regard and have created reasonable infrastructure for procurement. The FCI will accept only the surplus (after deducting the needs of the states under the NFSA) from these state governments (not millers) to be moved to deficit states. The FCI should move on helping those states where farmers suffer from distress sales at prices much below MSP, and which are dominated by small holdings.  Centre should make it clear to states that in case of any bonus being given by them on top of MSP, it will not

accept grains under the central pool beyond the quantity needed by the state for its own PDS and OWS.  The statutory levies including commissions need to be brought down uniformly to 3 per cent, or at most 4 per

cent of MSP, and this should be included in the MSP itself (states losing revenue due to this rationalization of levies can be compensated through a diversification package for the next three-five years);  The Government of India must provide better price support operations for pulses and oilseeds and dovetail

their MSP policy with trade policy so that their landed costs are not below their MSP.  Cash transfers in PDS should be gradually introduced, starting with large cities with more than 1 million

population; extending it to grain surplus states; and then giving deficit states for the option of cash or physical grain distribution. On PDS- and NFSA-related issues:  Given that leakages in the PDS range from 40 to 50 per cent, the GoI should defer implementation of the NFSA

in states that have not done end to end computerization; have not put the list of beneficiaries online for anyone to verify; and have not set up vigilance committees to check pilferage from PDS.  Coverage of population should be brought down to around 40 percent.  BPL families and some even above that they be given 7kg/person.  On central issue prices, while Antyodya households can be given grains at ` 3/2/1/kg for the time being, but

pricing for priority households must be linked to MSP. On stocking and movement related issues:  FCI should outsource its stocking operations to various agencies.  Covered and plinth (CAP) storage should be gradually phased out with no grain stocks remaining in CAP for

more than 3 months. ·

Silo bag technology and conventional storages wherever possible should replace CAP.

On Buffer Stocking Operations and Liquidation Policy:  DFPD/FCI have to work in tandem to liquidate stocks in OMSS or in export markets, whenever stocks go

beyond the buffer stock norms. A transparent liquidation policy is the need of hour, which should automatically kick-in when FCI is faced with surplus stocks than buffer norms. 

Greater flexibility to FCI with business orientation to operate in OMSS and export markets is needed. On direct subsidy to farmers:Farmers be given direct cash subsidy (of about Rs 7000/ha) and fertilizer sector can then be deregulated. On end to end computerization:

 The HLC recommends total end-to-end computerization of the entire food management system, starting from

procurement from farmers, to stocking, movement, and finally distribution through the TPDS. On the new face of the FCI:  The new face of the FCI will be akin to an agency for innovations in the food management system with the

primary focus of creating competition in every segment of the foodgrain supply chain, from procurement to stocking to movement and finally distribution under the TPDS, so that overall costs of the system are substantially reduced and leakages plugged and it serves a larger number of farmers and consumers.

Prices, Agriculture and Food Management

Higher procurements have lead to stocks exceeding the buffer norms, which FCI is forced to carry over to the next year. Food Subsidy 5.55 Provision of minimum nutritional support to the poor through subsidized foodgrains and ensuring price stability in different states are the twin objectives of the food security system. In fulfilling its obligation towards distributive justice, the government incurs food subsidy. The programme covers over 65 million BPL households serviced through 4, 50,000 fair price shops. While the economic cost of wheat and rice has continuously gone up, the issue price has been kept unchanged since 1 July 2002. On account of implementation of the NFSA, the CIP has further gone down for the APL and BPL categories. The government, therefore, continues to provide large and growing amounts of subsidy on foodgrains for distribution under the TPDS/NFSA and other nutrition-based welfare schemes and open market operations. The food subsidy bill has increased substantially in the past few years putting severe strain on the public exchequer (Table 5.9). Storage 5.56 The total capacity available for storage of foodgrains as on 30 November 2014 was 727 Table 5.9 : Quantum of Food Subsidies Released Year 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Food subsidy ` in crore) (`

Annual growth (%age)

23071.00 23827.59 31259.68 43668.08 58242.45 62929.56 72370.90 84554.00 89740.02 107823.75*

-10.39 3.28 31.19 39.69 33.37 8.05 15.00 16.83 6.13 20.15

Source : Department of Food and Public Distribution. Note : * Figures up to 9 January 2015.

lakh MT, comprising covered godowns of 567 lakh MT capacity and cover and plinth (CAP) facilities of 160 lakh MT capacity. The existing warehousing facility is limited not only in terms of capacity but also to certain crops. The stockholding capacity has not kept pace with the increase in production and demand for a long time. Considering that 160 lakh MT capacity is only CAP, which cannot be treated as scientific storage, public agencies do not have warehouses for proper storage of even half of the wheat and rice procured by them. In the wake of persistent seasonal inflation in perishables like fruits and vegetables, there was no effective strategy to control the inflation on a sustainable basis. Cold storage capacity for all type of food items is just 29 MT (Planning Commission 2012). The production of potato alone is about 35 MT. Cold storage facility is available for only 10 per cent of fruits and vegetables produced in India (Planning Commission 2011). The allocation of ` 5000 crore for developing scientific warehousing in Budget 2014 can create additional storage capacity of 16 MT. Policies to promote private investment in scientific storage are important to bridge the gap between the requirement and availability of scientific storage capacity.

AGRI-MARKETING REFORMS 5.57 Box 5.3 gives recent initiatives in agrimarketing. Recognizing the need for setting up a national market the 2014-15 Budget stated that the central government would work closely with state governments to reorient their respective APMC Acts to provide for establishment of private market yards/private markets. The Budget also announced that the state governments would also be encouraged to develop farmers markets in town areas to enable them to sell their produce directly.

COMMODITY FUTURES MARKET 5.58 Currently 43 of the 113 commodities that are notified for futures trading are actively traded in 4 national exchanges and 6 commodity-specific exchanges. Share of agricultural commodities in the total turnover was 18.37 per cent in 2014-15

Economic Survey 2014-15

Box 5.3 : Recent Initiatives in Agricultural Marketing (i)

The Department of Agriculture (DAC) has issued a comprehensive advisory to states to go beyond the provisions of the Model Act and declare the entire state a single market with one licence valid across the entire state and removing all restrictions on movement of agricultural produce within the state.

(ii) In order to promote development of a common national market for agricultural commodities through e-platforms, the department has approved ` 200 crore for a central-sector scheme for Promotion of National Agricultural Market through Agri-Tech Infrastructure Fund (ATIF) to be implemented during 2014-15 to 2016-17. Under the scheme, it is proposed to utilize the ATIF for migrating towards a national market through implementation of a common e- platform for agrimarketing across all states. (iii) On the request of the central government, a number of state governments have exempted the marketing of fruits and vegetables from the purview of the APMC Act. The NCT of Delhi has taken the initiative in this direction by issuing a notification on 2 September2014 , ending the regulation of fruits and vegetables outside redefined market yard/ sub-yard area of the APMC, MNI, Azadpur, APMC, Keshopur, and APMC Shahdara. The Small Farmers Agribusiness Consortium (SFAC) has taken the initiative for developing a kisan mandi in Delhi with a view to providing a platform to FPOs for direct sale of their produce to prospective buyers totally obviating or reducing unnecessary layers of intermediation in the process .They plan to scale their activities in other states based on the outcome of the experience of the Delhi kisan mandi. Source : DAC.

(up to December 2014), with food items (refined soya oil, soyabean, chana, coriander and rapeseed/ mustard seed) contributing 50.01 per cent of it. The remaining (81.63 per cent) turnover was contributed by bullion, metals, and energy contracts. A committee set up by the Ministry of Finance, which submitted its report in April 2014 has observed that hedging efficiency of the commodity futures markets is low. In order to ensure that forward markets in commodities are well regulated and the Indian commodity futures market is compliant with international regulatory

requirements, the regulatory framework for the commodity futures market needs to be strengthened at the earliest.

TRADE POLICY 5.59 Trade Policy in respect of agricultural commodities is changed from time to time in response to domestic availability and price situation. The basic customs duty (BCD) in some agriproducts was reduced / removed to encourage domestic manufacture of value added products, generate employment, and make exports competitive. To combat undervaluation and protect the interests of domestic farmers and industry, the BCD of some agri-products like sugar and edible oils was raised. The duty on sugar was increased from 15 per cent to 25 per cent vide Customs Notification dated 21 August 2014 and duty on import of crude and refined edible oils raised from 2.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent and 10 per cent to 15 per cent respectively, vide custom notification dated 24 December 2014. 5.60 There is an increasing demand for opening up of the export of pulses which would incentivize farmers to invest in pulse cultivation and for a reasonable duty structure to be devised to contain excessive import. Further, a pre-announced import duty structure will bring stability in domestic edible oil prices leading to increase in production of oil seed/palm. This will also result in reduced incidence of prices falling below MSPs of oilseeds requiring procurements by government agencies. 5.61 The following policy changes were made in recent years to benefit farmers and to incentivize the development of the agro-processing sector and enhance farm productivity: ď&#x201A;§

export of edible oils in branded consumer packs of up to 5 kg was permitted with an MEP of US$ 1100 per MT vide Director General of Foreign Tradeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s notification dated 30 April 2014.

ď&#x201A;§

export of kabuli chana and 10,000 MT of organic pulses per annum has been allowed.

Prices, Agriculture and Food Management



since 2011, exports of rice and wheat have been permitted.



since February 2013 processed and/or valueadded agricultural products have been exempted from export restrictions /bans even if their base produce is subject to an export ban.



free export of cotton is permitted.

5.62 The import policy for agriculture is often considered as a price support and price stabilization tool. Increase in tariffs is recommended for agricultural products in response to decline in prices on an ad hoc basis. Reform is required in the import policy of agricultural products. The applied tariffs for imports should be linked in a countercyclical manner with international prices so that the landed prices of imported commodities fall within a known range. This would protect farmers from adverse impact of steep fall in commodity prices and facilitate long-term investment in agriculture. While the trade policy regime should be stable, it should also be nimble to quickly respond to the changed export duty structure of the exporting countries aimed at pushing value-added products by neutralizing our duty differential between raw material and finished product.

AGRICULTURE TRADE 5.63 India has emerged as a significant agriexporter in a few crops, viz. cotton, rice, meat, oil meals, pepper, and sugar. As per the World Trade Organization’s Trade Statistics, the shares of India’s agricultural exports and imports in world trade in 2013-14 were 2.69 per cent and 1.31 per cent respectively. Agricultural exports as a percentage of agricultural GDP have increased from 9.10 per cent in 2008-09 to 14.05 per cent in 2013-14. During the same period, agricultural imports as a percentage of agricultural GDP also increased from 3.94 per cent to 5.50 per cent.

OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES AHEAD 5.64 The inflation is not expected to rise significantly from the current levels, since: a) The oil prices are expected to remain benign in the coming months on account of weak global demand and increased supplies. b) Global commodity prices, both spot and futures have generally been declining. Global commodity prices are expected to remain weak in 2015 due to low international demand and comfortable supply. c) Factors like high rural wages, higher level of MSP, and rise in input cost have been instrumental for elevated inflation in the last few years. At present, growth of all these drivers have been slowed down considerably and this could result in keeping food inflation within limits. 5.65 Agriculture and Food sector needs huge investment in research, education, extension, irrigation, fertilizers, and laboratories to test soil, water and commodities, warehousing, coldstorage. Rationalisation of subsidies and better targeting of beneficiaries would generate part of the resources for public investment. There are wide differences in the yields within states. Even the best of the states have much lower yield in different crops when compared to the best in the world. This provides ample opportunity to increase production by bridging the yield-gap to the extent feasible within the climatic zone. 5.66 The focus of public expenditure for agriculture so far has been on provision of subsidies (public expenditure in agriculture is only one-fourth of expenditure towards food and fertilizer subsidies, CACP Kharif report 2014-15) and it is time it shifted towards investments to boost productivity. Recommendations of Shanta Kumar Committee provide useful suggestions for the future road-map of food-policy. Every effort should be made to bring states on board for creating national common market for agricultural commodities.

Industrial, Corporate, and Infrastructure Performance

06 CHAPTER

The earlier perception about slow industrial growth during the last three years is at variance with the latest gross domestic product estimates, based on a new methodology and with 2011-12 as base year. The latter indicates an industrial recovery lead by mining and manufacturing However, in the current year, credit growth, corporate performance, and the Index of Industrial Production continue to point towards slow industrial growth. Infrastructure growth in terms of eight core industries has been higher than industrial growth since 2011-12 and this trend is expected to continue. A number of macro level and sectoral initiatives undertaken to improve industrial growth are expected to yield results over time.

6.2 As per recently released data on national accounts, with 2011-12 as base year, industrial growth in 2012-13 and 2013-14 at 2.4 per cent and 4.5 per cent is much better than the growth rates taking 2004-05 as the base year. Further, the 1.4 per cent growth in gross capital formation (GCF) in industry in 2013-14 implies that recovery in industrial growth commenced last year. In contrast, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) suggests that the industrial sector is recovering slowly with a 2.1 per cent growth in AprilDecember 2014-15 over the 0.1 per cent increase in the same period last year. The recovery is led by the infrastructure sectors, viz. electricity, coal, and cement. Mining sector growth has turned positive while manufacturing growth continues to remain tepid. In terms of use based classification, basic and capital goods appear to be on the path of recovery, intermediate goods are yet to emerge out of difficulties, and consumer goods led by consumer durables continues to experience negative growth. 6.3 Corporate sector performance of listed manufacturing companies in the private sector in

terms of growth of sales and net profit appeared to turn around in Q1 of 2014-15. However, performance in Q2 of 2014-15 has dampened the expectations of sustained improvement. There is no discernible improvement in capacity utilization in the first two quarters of 2014-15, as per the twenty-seventh round of the Reserve Bank of Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s (RBIâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s) Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilisation Survey. 6.4 A new regime with a fresh mind-set has been in repair damage mode for instilling confidence among the business community and boosting industrial growth. Box 6.1 lists some of the initiatives of the new government in the industrial sector. The emphasis has been on rapidly improving ease of doing business and launching fresh initiatives like Make in India and Digital India, creating a National Industrial Corridors Authority, streamlining environment and forest clearances and labour reforms. To overcome critical constraints holding up use of land and natural resources, action has been taken to remove regulatory uncertainty by passing ordinances to streamline land acquisition, e-auction of coal blocks for private

Industrial, Corporate, and Infrastructure Performance

Box 6.1 : Recent initiatives to boost industrial growth 1 . Ease of Doing Business: To improve India`s low Ease of Doing Business Index ranking, reforms are being undertaken in areas such as starting a business, dealing with construction permits, registration of property, power supply, paying taxes, enforcing contracts, and resolving insolvency. The important measures that have been undertaken are liberalization of licensing and deregulation of a large number of defence products, extending the validity of licencses to provide enough time to licencees to procure land and obtain the necessary clearances/ approvals from authorities, adoption of a checklist with specific time-lines for processing all applications filed by foreign investors in cases relating to retail/non-resident Indian (NRI)/export-oriented unit (EoU) foreign investments, automation of processes for registration with the Employees Provident Fund Organization and Employees State Insurance Corporation, processing of environment and forest clearances online, reducing the number of documents for exports, adoption of best practices by states in granting clearances and ensuring compliance through peer evaluation, self-certification, etc. 2. Make in India: The Make in India programme is aimed to facilitate investment, foster innovation, enhance skill development, protect intellectual property, and build best-in-class manufacturing infrastructure. Information on twenty-five sectors has been provided on a web portal along with details of FDI policy, National Manufacturing Policy, intellectual property rights, and the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor and other National Industrial Corridors. An Investor Facilitation Cell has been created in 'Invest India' to guide, assist, and handhold investors 3. E-Biz Project: Under the project a Government to Business (G2B) portal is being set up to serve as a one-stop shop for delivery of services to the investors and address the needs of the business and industry from inception through the entire life cycle of the business. The process of applying for industrial licence (IL) and industrial entrepreneur memorandum (IEM) has been made online and this service is now available to entrepreneur on 24x7 basis at the E-Biz website. Other services of the central government are being integrated on top priority. 4. Skill development: After the setting up of a new Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship to promote skill and entrepreneurial activities, work is being undertaken on setting up common norms for skill training across central ministries/ departments. Thirty- one industry/employer-led Sector Skill Councils (SSCs) are now operational and these have been aligned with the twenty-five sectors of 'Make in India'. To create a common standard for skills training and certification in the country efforts are on to align the National Council for Vocational Training (NCVT), school boards, and the University Grants Commission (UGC). 5. Streamlining environment and forest clearances: A process for online submission of applications for environment, coastal regulation zone (CRZ), and forest clearances has been started. The decision- making process has been decentralized by strengthening federalism. To ensure industrial and education growth, the requirement of environment clearance has been done away with for projects for construction of industrial sheds which house plant and machinery, educational institutions and hostels. 6. Labour- sector reforms : A Shram Suvidha portal has been launched for online registration of units, filing of self-certified, simplified, single online return by units, introduction of a transparent labour inspection scheme via computerized system as per risk-based criteria, uploading of inspection reports within seventy-two hours and timely redressal of grievances. A Universal Account Number has been launched facilitating portable, hassle-free, and universally accessible Provident Fund accounts for employees. The Apprentices Act, 1961 has been amended so as to make it flexible and attractive to youth and industry and an Apprentice Protsahan Yojana to support micro small and medium enterprises (MSME) in the manufacturing sector in engaging apprentices has been launched.

companies, and auction of iron ore and other new coal mines. 6.5 In infrastructure, the focus has been on resolving long-pending issues like pricing of gas, establishing processes and procedures for transparent auction of coal and minerals, and improving power generation and distribution. In railways, there have been several policy announcements such as 100 per cent foreign direct investment (FDI) to build a variety of rail

infrastructure and new initiatives like bullet/semihigh speed trains and modernization of stations and timely completion of major projects like Dedicated Freight Corridors being monitored closely. In the road sector efforts have been undertaken to resolve problems associated with projects which are yet to be completed and the National Highways and Infrastructure Development Corporation Ltd. has been set up for speedy implementation of highway projects in the north-east.

Economic Survey 2014-15

IIP-BASED INDUSTRIAL PERFORMANCE

goods have grown by 1.7 per cent, while consumer goods have declined by 4.9 per cent during AprilDecember 2014-15 as compared to the same period in 2013-14. The decline in growth of consumer goods is accentuated by the (-)15.2 per cent growth in consumer durables.

6.6 The IIP provides quick estimates on the performance of key industrial sectors ignoring seasonal adjustment. As per the IIP, industrial production which had slowed down to 2.5 per cent in 2008-09, improved in the next two years to reach 8.2 per cent in 2010-11, declined for the next three years successively, to reverse the trend in 2014-15. The main reasons for the declining industrial growth are high interest rates to tackle persistent inflation, slowdown in investment, and loss of business confidence.

INDUSTRIAL-SECTOR PERFORMANCE BASED ON REVISED GDP ESTIMATES 6.9 The recently released new series of national accounts, revising the base year from 2004-05 to 2011-12 and applying changed methodology, whose details are not yet available, gives considerably improved estimates of growth in the industrial sector in 2012-13 and 2013-14 as compared to those based on the 2004-05 series (Table 6.2). This is mainly due to much better performance in the mining and manufacturing sectors as per the new series. In 2013-14, manufacturing sector growth is estimated at 5.3 per cent as compared to the (-) 0.7 per cent estimated under the 2004-05 series. The Advance Estimates (AE) for the year 2014-15 show industrial growth of 5.9 per cent as per 2011-12 base year. The manufacturing, electricity, and construction sectors have grown

6.7 During April-December 2014-15, industrial production attained a growth of 2.1 per cent owing mainly to recovery in the mining sector and impressive growth in the electricity sector (Table 6.1). The manufacturing sector continues to remain tepid, registering growth of 1.2 per cent in AprilDecember 2014-15.The low growth in manufacturing is mainly due to high rate of interest, infrastructure bottlenecks, and low domestic and external demand. 6.8 In terms of use based classification, basic goods and capital goods have witnessed marked improvement in performance registering growth rates of 6.9 per cent and 4.8 per cent , intermediate

Table 6.1 : Index of Industrial Production-Growth rates (per cent) Weight 2012- 201313 14 General Sectoral Mining Manufacturing Electricity Use based Basic goods Capital goods Intermediate goods Consumer goods Consumer durables Consumer non-durables

2013-14

2014-15

Apr.Dec.

100.00

1.1

-0.1

-1.0

1.9

-0.8

0.1

4.5

1.3

0.5

2.1

14.16 75.53 10.32

-2.3 1.3 4.0

-0.6 -0.8 6.1

-4.7 -1.1 3.5

-0.2 1.4 8.4

0.5 -1.6 5.0

-1.5 -0.4 5.6

3.0 3.9 11.3

0.5 0.4 9.4

1.7 -0.8 9.3

1.7 1.2 10.0

45.68 8.83 15.69 29.81 8.46

2.5 -6.0 1.6 2.4 2.0

2.1 -3.6 3.1 -2.8 2.8

-0.2 -3.7 1.6 -2.1 -12.7

2.8 2.2 3.8 -0.2 -9.5

1.8 0.0 3.9 -6.1 -16.5

1.5 -0.4 3.1 -2.9 -12.9

8.7 13.6 3.1 -3.2 -9.5

7.0 -0.5 1.6 -5.4 -15.5

5.1 2.5 0.3 -6.4 -20.9

6.9 4.8 1.7 -4.9 -15.2

21.35

-12.2

4.8

7.1

8.2

2.3

5.8

1.4

2.3

3.1

2.2

Source : Central Statistics Office (CSO).

Industrial, Corporate, and Infrastructure Performance

Table 6.2 : Changes in Growth in Industry at constant prices (per cent ) Item

i ii iii iv

2012-13 2004-05 2011-12 Series Series

2013-14 2004-05 2011-12 Series Series

2014-15 (AE) 2004-05 2011-12 Series Series

Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas etc. Construction

-2.2 1.1 2.3 1.1

-0.2 6.2 4.0 -4.3

-1.4 -0.7 5.9 1.6

5.4 5.3 4.8 2.5

NA NA NA NA

2.3 6.8 9.6 4.5

Industry

1.0

2.4

0.4

4.5

5.9

Source : CSO. Note : NA : Not Available

remarkably while growth in the mining sector has declined as compared to 2013-14. The improved performance in manufacturing is attributed to the change in methodology and use of new data sources. The growth in electricity, gas, and water supply and construction shows marked improvement in 2014-15 as compared to the previous two years.

PERFORMANCE OF EIGHT CORE INDUSTRIES 6.10 A monthly index of eight core industries, viz. coal, fertilizer, electricity, crude oil, natural gas, refinery product, steel, and cement, comprising 38 per cent of the weight of items in the IIP, is released to gauge the impact on overall economic activity. A comparison between the annual average growth

rate in the eight core industries and the IIP (Figure 6.1) shows that since 2011-12 the higher annual growth of the eight core industries than of the IIP, implies slowdown in the growth of consumer goods. 6.11 The overall growth in eight core industries during April-December 2014-15 has improved marginally to 4.4 per cent compared to 4.1 per cent in the same period last year. Electricity (9.7 per cent), coal (9.1 per cent), and cement (7.9 per cent) boosted the performance, while natural gas (-5.1 per cent), fertilizers (-1.4 per cent), crude oil (-0.9 per cent), refinery products (0.2 per cent), and steel (1.6 per cent) accounted for moderation in growth. The improved performance in electricity is due to high growth in thermal generation; in coal mining to higher production by Coal India Ltd. and captive mining; and in cement to capacity addition. Natural gas and crude oil production have declined because of no major discoveries and problems with old oilfields. Domestic steel production is affected by slowdown in domestic demand and cheaper imports. Fertilizer production has contracted mainly because of non-availability of gas and no significant capacity addition in the past few years.

COMPARATIVE POSITION OF INDIA AND WORLD MANUFACTURING Source: CSO and Economic Adviser, Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP).

6.12 India accounts for 1.8 per cent of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s manufacturing output. World

Economic Survey 2014-15

manufacturing growth was 3.4 per cent in the first quarter and 3.0 per cent in the second quarter of 2014-15, according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organizationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s (UNIDO) Quarterly Report on World Manufacturing Production. Growth rates in manufacturing are uniformly low worldwide because industrialized economies are experiencing slow growth and emerging economies are finding it difficult to sustain growth as they are facing low demand in the global market and in their domestic economies. The main items which have boosted world manufacturing output are tobacco products, other transport equipment, basic metals, radio, TV and communication equipment, and machinery and equipment. 6.13 Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s manufacturing output has increased by 3.9 per cent in the first quarter and 0.4 per cent in the second quarter. The items which have shown high positive growth in 2014-15 (AprilDecember) are electrical machinery and apparatus and basic metals. These have shown positive growth in world manufacturing sector as well. However, in India items like radio, TV and communication equipment and apparatus, and office, accounting, and computing machinery have registered high negative growth whereas in the rest of the world these items have shown positive growth. India needs to be part of the global manufacturing chain to partake of the benefits of growth in these items and the electronics industry needs to be incentivized to set up domestic production facilities.

CORPORATE-SECTOR PERFORMANCE 6.14 The corporate sector performance of listed manufacturing companies in the private sector in terms of growth of sales and net profit appeared to turn around in Q1 of 2014-15 (Figure 6.2). However, the performance in Q2 of 2014-15 dampened the expectations of sustained improvement. Year-on-year (Y-o-Y) sales growth declined successively from quarter

to quarter from 13.1 per cent in Q1 of 2012-13 to 0.8 per cent in Q1 of 2013-14 and then moderated to around 5.0 per cent in the last two quarters of 2013-14. Sales recorded growth of 8.9 per cent and 4.2 per cent respectively in Q1and Q2 of 2014-15. Similarly, expenditure growth for the manufacturing sector declined successively from Q1 of 2012-13 till Q1 of 2013-14, and then fluctuated till Q2 of 201415, when it stood at 3.8 per cent after declining from 8.2 per cent in Q1 of 2014-15. Net profit growth rose sharply from 4.6 per cent in Q4 of 2013-14 to 34.7 per cent in Q1 of 2014-15 and stood at 24.1 per cent in Q2 of 2014-15. For manufacturing companies in the private sector, although growth in sales has been stagnant for the last two years, net profit has started rising from the last quarter of 2013-14, showing improved efficiency of the companies, which is a positive sign for growth of the manufacturing sector in India 6.15 Capacity utilization, as measured by the twenty-seventh round of the Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilisation Survey (OBICUS) of the RBI, registered an increase in Q2 of 2014-15 over the previous quarter although it was lower than its level in the previous year. The (Y-o-Y) growth in new orders decelerated from 12.0 per cent in Q1 of 2014-15 to 5.6 per cent in Q2 of 2014-15. The finished goods inventory to sales ratio at 18.0 per cent in Q2 of 2014-15 was similar to the previous quarter but down from its level in the previous year. The raw material inventory to sales ratio declined in Q2 of 201415 on both quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) and Yo-Y basis.

GCF IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 6.16 As per the latest data available on national income, consumption expenditure, and capital formation at constant 2011-12 prices, the rate of growth of GCF has declined from 37.2 per cent in 2012-13 to 33.4 per cent in 2013-14. The rate

Industrial, Corporate, and Infrastructure Performance

Source : RBI

of growth of GCF in industry has improved from a (-) 0.7 per cent in 2012-13 to 1.4 per cent in 2013-14, implying slight uptick in investment in industry (Table 6.3). The sector-wise share in overall GCF over the period 2011-12 to 201314 shows that the shares of mining and electricity have gone up gradually, the share of manufacturing has remained unchanged, and the share of the construction sector has declined. Table 6.3 : Gross Capital Formation (GCF) by Industry of use at constant prices (201112) (in per cent) 2011-12 Rate of growth of GCF in industry Sector-wise share in overall GCF i. Mining 2.1 ii. Manufacturing 19.7 iii. Electricity 9.0 iv. Construction 6.5 Source : CSO

2012-13 2013-14 -0.7

1.4

2.4 21.0 9.8 5.8

3.1 19.6 10.2 5.5

CREDIT FLOW TO THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 6.17 Except the mining sector, all other major industrial sectors have experienced slowdown in growth of credit in 2014-15 as compared to 201314 (Table 6.4). Growth of credit flow to the manufacturing sector at 13.3 per cent in 2014-15 is lower than the growth of 25.4 per cent in 2013-14, reflecting the tepid growth in the sector. Chemicals, food processing, and textiles have seen a sharp decline in growth of credit in 2014-15. In 201415, there is 13.3 credit growth in micro and small industries and 0.7 per cent and 6.1 per cent growth in medium-scale and large-scale industries respectively.

MSME SECTOR 6.18 The 3.61 crore (MSMEs), contributing 37.5 per cent of the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GDP, have a critical role in boosting industrial growth and ensuring the success of the Make in India programme. A number of schemes are being implemented for the establishment of new MSMEs and growth and

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 6.4 : Growth of Credit to Industry by Scheduled Commercial Banks (in per cent) Sectors

2013-14*

2014-15**

Industries Manufacturing Mining Manufacturing sub-sectors Food processing Textiles Petroleum & nuclear fuel Cement & cement products

14.1 25.4 1.2

6.8 13.3 3.5

31.0 14.0 -3.1 18.6

12.1 3.1 -7.4 5.6

Chemicals & chemical products Basic metal & metal products All engineering Transport equipment

19.6 15.1 16.3 15.6

-8.9 7.3 6.5 5.0

Other Industries

-2.5

-3.1

Source: RBI. Note : * End - December. 2013 over end -December 2012 . ** End-December 2014 over end December 2013.

development of existing ones. These include: (a) the Prime Ministerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Employment Generation Programme, (b) Micro and Small EnterprisesCluster Development Programme , (c) Credit Guarantee Fund Scheme for Micro and Small Enterprises, (d) Performance and Credit Rating Scheme, (e) Assistance to Training Institutions, and (f) Scheme of Fund for Regeneration of Traditional Industries.

CENTRAL PUBLIC-SECTOR ENTERPRISES 6.19 Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs), spanning industries and infrastructure, continue to play a key role in the development of the economy. A total of 290 CPSEs existed under the administrative control of various ministries/ departments as on 31 March 2014. Of these, 234 were operational and 56 under construction. Financial investment (paid-up capital + long-term loans) in all the CPSEs stood at ` 9,92,971 crore as on 31 March 2014 showing an increase of 17.46 per cent over 2012-13. In 2013-14, net profit of the 163 profit-making CPSEs was ` 1,49,164 crore and net loss of the 71 loss-making CPSEs was ` 20,055 crore. The Oil and Natural

Gas Corporation (ONGC) Ltd, Coal India Ltd, National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) Ltd, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd . and National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC) Ltd. were the top five profit-making CPSEs during 2013-14. Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL), Air India Ltd, Hindustan Photofilms Manufacturing Co. Ltd., Hindustan Cables Ltd., and State Trading Corporation of India Ltd. were the top five loss-making CPSEs in 2013-14. The contribution of CPSEs to the central exchequer by way of divided payment, interest on government loans, and payment of taxes and duties increased from ` 1,63,207 crore in 2012-13 to ` 2,20,161 crore in 2013-14. This was primarily due to increase in contribution towards dividend payment, excise duty, customs duty, corporate tax, and dividend tax.

FDI 6.20 An investor-friendly FDI policy has been put in place, whereby FDI up to 100 per cent is permitted under the automatic route in most sectors/activities. In 2014, FDI policy has been further liberalized. FDI up to 49 per cent through the government route has been permitted in the defence industry. Higher FDI has also been allowed on a case-to-case basis. FDI up to 100 per cent through the automatic route has been permitted in construction, operation, and maintenance of identified railway transport infrastructure. Norms related to minimum land area, capitalization, and repatriation of funds for FDI in construction development projects have been further liberalized. 6.21 During April-November 2014-15, total FDI inflows (including equity inflows, reinvested earnings, and other capital) were US$ 27.4 billion, while FDI equity inflows were US$ 18.9 billion. Cumulative FDI inflows from April 2000 to November 2014 were US$ 350.9 billion. Services, construction, telecommunications, computer software and hardware, drugs and pharmaceuticals, the automobile industry, chemicals, and power have attracted a proportionately high share of total inflows.

Industrial, Corporate, and Infrastructure Performance

INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE: SPECIFIC SECTORS

December 2014 as compared to 64.57 per cent during April-December 2013. Capacity addition

POWER 6.22 To provide 24x7 power across the country by 2019, several decisions have been taken for increasing power generation, strengthening of transmission and distribution, separation of feeder and metering of power to consumers. The Electricity (Amendment) Bill 2014 has been introduced in the Lok Sabha to usher in reforms in the power sector, promote competition and efficiency in operation, and improve the quality of supply of electricity. Generation 6.23 With a target of 765.39 billion units (BU) and achievement of 793.73 BU, electricity generation by power utilities has exceeded the target for April-December, 2014. Led by doubledigit growth in thermal sector, a 9.9 per cent growth was achieved in power generation during AprilDecember 2014-15 (Table 6.5). The negative growth in hydro generation in 2014-15 is mainly due to poor monsoon. 6.24 In April-December, 2014-15, in the thermal category, growth in generation from coal, lignite, and gas-based stations was of the order of 14.41per cent , 9.64 per cent, and (-) 3.89 per cent respectively. The overall plant load factor (PLF), a measure of efficiency of thermal power stations, was 65.09 per cent during April-

6.25 The capacity-addition target during the Twelfth Plan period is 88,537 MW comprising 26,182 MW in the central sector, 15,530 MW in the state sector, and 46,825 MW in private sector. As against the capacity-addition target of 17,830.3 MW in 2014-15, 11,610.41 MW (including 1,000MW nuclear capacity commissioned) has been added till 31December 2014. The cumulative capacity addition as on 31 December 2014, is 50,058.22 MW, which constitutes 56.5 per cent of the Twelfth Plan target. The individual targets achieved by the central, state, and private sectors are 39.2 per cent, 64.5 per cent, and 63.6 per cent, respectively. Distribution 6.26 To reduce aggregate technical and commercial (AT & C) losses, establish IT-enabled energy accounting/auditing, and improve collective efficiency, a new scheme, the â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Integrated Power Development Scheme (IPDS)â&#x20AC;&#x2122; which subsumes the Restructured Accelerated Power Development and Reforms Programme (R-APDRP), has been launched. The outlay for the IPDS is ` 32,612 crore. Its key features are strengthening of the subtransmission and distribution network in urban areas, metering of distribution /feeders/ transformers /consumers in urban areas and roof top solar panels.

Table 6.5 : Power Generation by Utilities (billion units) Category 2012-13 Power generation Hydroelectric# Thermal Nuclear Bhutan Import

912.06 113.72 760.68 32.87 4.80

April-March 2013-14 967.15 134.85 792.48 34.27 5.60

Growth (per cent )

2013-14

6.04 18.58 4.18 4.14 16.75

722.11 110.76 580.81 25.11 5.44

Source : Ministry of Power. Note : # includes generation from hydro stations above 25 MW.

April-December 2014-15 793.73 106.73 657.06 25.04 4.90

Growth (per cent) 9.91 -3.64 13.13 -0.28 -9.91

Economic Survey 2014-15

6.27 A new scheme, the ‘Deendayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana’ (DDUGJY), has been launched with the objectives of: (a) separating agriculture and non-agriculture feeders to facilitate distribution companies (discoms) in the judicious rostering of supply to agricultural and nonagricultural consumers; (b) strengthening and augmentation of sub-transmission and distribution infrastructure in rural areas; and (c) metering in rural areas. The existing ‘Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana (RGGVY)’ is subsumed under the DDUGJY. Under the new scheme all discoms including private sector discoms are eligible for availing of financial support.

produced during the same period last year. Production was affected due to operational problems in RJ-ON-90/1, GAIL pipeline fire accident in Andhra Pradesh, and prolonged bandhs and blockages in Assam.

PETROLEUM

6.30 Domestic production is supplemented by oil and gas assets acquired by Indian companies abroad. During April -December 2014-15, production of crude oil and natural gas from assets abroad was 4.135 MMT and 2.417 BCM, respectively. Box 6.2 lists some of the initiatives for enhancing crude oil and natural gas production.

AND

NATURAL GAS

Production 6.28 Domestic annual production of crude oil has been stagnant at around 38 million tonnes in the last four years. During April-December 201415, domestic production of crude oil was 28.171 MMT which is close to the 28.423 MMT

6.29 Gas production during April-December 2014-15 was 25.320 BCM against 26.698 BCM during the corresponding period of 2013-14, showing a decline of 5.1 per cent. The decline in natural gas production is due to lower production in Bassein and satellite fields, under performance of six newly drilled wells in M&S Tapti, seizure of one well in KG-D6, and closure of non-associated gas wells on account of the GAIL pipeline accident.

Box 6.2 : Recent Policy Initiatives for enhancing Crude Oil and Natural Gas production 

New Gas Pricing Formula: The Government approved the New Gas Pricing formula on 18 October, 2014 and released New Gas Pricing Guidelines, 2014. The increase in price of domestically produced natural gas strikes a fine balance between the expectations of investors and interests of consumers.



Reforms in Production-Sharing Contracts to push Investment in Exploration: The government has ironed out a number of rigidities in production- sharing contracts to instil confidence among investors and ensure that work, which was stuck in a number of blocks, takes off in right earnest and without further delay.



Reassessment of Hydrocarbon Potential: An elaborate plan has been rolled out to reassess hydrocarbon resources in India's sedimentary basins which will provide greater clarity to future investors on the prospects of the basins.



Project for Survey of Un-appraised Sedimentary Basins of India: A project has been undertaken to appraise about 1.5 million sq. km area in twenty-four sedimentary basins where scanty geo-scientific data is available. Data generated under the project shall be stored, maintained, validated in a National Data Repository (NDR) which is being set up in the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH).



Data Acquisition through Non Exclusive Multi-Client Model: A policy for acquisition of geo-scientific data through a non-exclusive multi-client model is being implemented. This model replaces the earlier fiscal term of profit sharing after cost recovery with the payment of a onetime project fee.



Level Playing Field for Gas operations in the North East Region: For incentivizing exploration and production in the North East region, a 40 per cent subsidy on gas operations has been extended to private companies operating in the region.



Gas Grid Infrastructure: In addition to the existing 15,000 km gas pipeline network, another 15,000 km has been planned for completion of the gas grid.

Industrial, Corporate, and Infrastructure Performance

Refining capacity 6.31 India is a major player in global refining. Its refining capacity was 215.066 million metric tonne per annum (MMTPA) as on 1 April 2014. Crude throughput during April-December 201415 was 166.685 MMT, marginally higher than 166.362 MMT during April-December 2013-14. Exploration of unconventional resources 6.32 Coal Bed Methane (CBM): Out of the total available coal-bearing area of 26,000 sq. km for CBM exploration in the country, exploration has been initiated in about 17,000 sq. km. The estimated CBM resources in the country are about 92 trillion cubic feet (TFC), of which only 9.9 TCF has so far been established. Commercial Production of CBM in India has now become a reality with current production of about 0.60 million metric standard cubic metre per day (MMSCMD). 6.33 Shale Oil and Gas: Under the first phase of assessment of shale oil and gas, fifty Petroleum Exploration Lease (PEL) / Petroleum Mining Lease (PML) blocks have been awarded to ONGC and five to OIL. These blocks are located in Assam (6), Arunachal Pradesh (1), Gujarat (28), Rajasthan (1), Andhra Pradesh (10), and Tamil Nadu (9). ONGC has drilled one well and spudded another in Cambay Basin, Gujarat, for assessment of shale gas/shale oil potential of Cambay Basin.

NEW AND RENEWABLE ENERGY 6.34 To provide a big push to solar energy, two new schemes, viz., ‘Scheme for Development of Solar Parks and Ultra Mega Solar Power Projects’ and ‘Pilot-cum-Demonstration Project for Development of Grid Connected Solar PV Power Plants on Canal Banks and Canal Tops’ were rolled out in December, 2014. Supplementary guidelines were issued under the existing ‘Solar Pumping Programme for Irrigation and Drinking Water’ scheme to solarize the targeted one lakh such pumps throughout the country during the current year.

6.35 Under the ‘Pilot-cum-Demonstration Project for Development of Grid Connected Solar PV Power Plants ‘in principle’ approval has so far been accorded to canal-top projects for generation of 34 MW solar power and canal-bank projects for 35 MW.

COAL 6.36 A quantum jump in production of domestic coal is critical when the country is gearing up to revive economic growth. The focus is therefore on addressing quantity, quality and time-bound transportation issues so that the fuel needs of a growing economy are met. Production 6.37 The annual target for coal production for 2014-15 is 630.25 MT. Production of raw coal during April-December 2014 at 426.7 MT increased by 9.1 per cent compared to 1.5 per cent growth in the corresponding period of 201314 . Though the production of coal has been increasing over the years, total imports including both coking and non-coking coal have also increased due to higher demand mainly from fuelstarved power stations (Table 6.6). Coal Mines (Special Provisions) Ordinance, 2014 6.38 The government has taken quick decisions to overcome the uncertainty in the coal sector emerging from the Supreme Court judgment dated 20 August, 2014 and its order dated 24 September, 2014 cancelling allocation of certain coal blocks and issuing directions with regard to them. The central government has issued the Coal Mines (Special Provisions) Ordinance, 2014 on 21 October 2014 followed by the Coal Mines (Special Provisions) Second Ordinance, 2014 on 26 December 2014. The main purpose of these ordinances is to provide for allocation of coal mines to steel, cement, and power utilities which are vital for development and, ensure smooth transfer of rights, title, and interests in the mines/blocks along with their land and other associated mining infrastructure to the new allottees to be selected

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Table 6.6 : Production, Supply, and Import of Coal (million tonnes) Year

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15*

All India coal Production Offtake/ supply 492.76 532.04 532.70 539.95 556.40 565.77 485.38

489.17 513.79 523.47 535.30 567.14 571.25 497.12

Production

CIL Offtake/ supply

403.73 431.26 431.32 435.84 452.21 462.41 388.98

400.72 415.22 423.78 432.62 464.54 470.91 398.29

Imports Coking Non-coking 21.08 24.69 19.48 31.80 35.56 37.19 27.6 #

37.92 48.57 49.43 71.05 110.22 131.25 110.0 #

Total imports 59.00 73.26 68.91 102.85 145.78 168.44 137.6 #

Source : Ministry of Coal. Notes : *Up to January 2015. # Import figures are up to November 2014. CIL is Coal India Limited.

through an auction or allotment (to government companies). The allocation of coal blocks would now be made in line with the provisions of the ordinances and rules made under them and the auction of coal blocks would be through an eauction process in order to keep the process transparent. The methodology for fixing a floor/ reserve price for auction and allotment of these coal mines/blocks has also been spelt out by the government. The government has assigned high priority to the early completion of critical railway projects for movement of coal.

MINERALS 6.39 The share of the mining and quarrying sector as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) has declined from 2.8 per cent in 2010-11 to 2.1 per cent in 2013-14 (Provisional Estimates). During this period, following in the wake of various judicial pronouncements, and the Justice Shah Commission Report, several mining leases were either suspended or closed down. To overcome the problems in the sector, an enabling environment based on sound principles of transparency and efficiency is being designed to provide a fair level playing field to both domestic and foreign investors.

Settling the policy paradigm 6.40 To give a fillip to the mining sector, it has been decided to amend the provisions of the Mines and Minerals (Development & Regulation ) Act , 1957 (MMDR) with the objectives of: (a) providing greater transparency in allotment by auctioning mining leases; (b) attracting private investment and high technology by promoting easy transferability; and (c) obtaining an increased share for the state governments. To this effect an ordinance has been promulgated on 12 January 2015. The salient features of the Mines & Minerals (Development Regulations) (Amendment Ordinance 2015) include: â&#x20AC;&#x201C; (a) Auction for realization of fair value: For realization of the fair share value of the mineral resources and for improving transparency in allocation of mineral resources, a provision has been made for grant of mineral concessions only through auction by competitive bidding. However, dispensation in respect of public sector entities has to be specified separately. (b) Dispensing with discretion and addressing possible disruption: To remove discretion in grant of renewals, provisions for renewal of mining leases has been removed. The period

Industrial, Corporate, and Infrastructure Performance

of mining lease has been increased to fifty years. After fifty years a lease will be auctioned afresh. (c) Relief to project-affected people/district: In order to earmark funds for benefit of persons affected by mining, setting up of a District Mineral Foundation in every district affected by mining has been announced. The resources for the Foundation will be raised by way of an additional levy, not exceeding one-third of the royalty, and as decided by the Government of India from time to time. The state governments are required to frame rules for the governance structure of the Foundation and effective utilization of its funds. (d) Boost to exploration: The establishment of a National Mineral Exploration Trust has been proposed for the purpose of regional and detailed exploration. This will be funded by an additional levy not exceeding 2 per cent of the royalty. (e) Easy transferability to encourage private sector participation: To attract private agencies and promote the latest technology, a provision has been made for easy transfer of mineral concessions which have been granted through auction route. (f)

Timely disposal of cases: For eliminating delays in administration and facilitating expeditious and optimum development of the mineral resources, a provision has been made to empower the central government to frame rules for fixing time limits for the various stages in processing applications for grant of mining lease or prospecting license-cum-mining lease.

(g) Deterrents against illegal mining: To curb the menace of illegal mining, imposition of stricter penalties like imprisonment up to five years or fine up to ` 5 lakh per hectare of area where illegal mining is proved are proposed.

101

6.41 For a smooth transition to the new mining regime, several steps need to be taken by the government and various other agencies. These include piloting the Amendment Bill in the Parliament, framing of rules for amendment of Mineral Concession Rules, 1960 and Mineral Conservation and Development Rules, 1988 in line with the proposed changes in the MMDR Act, laying down the auction procedure including preparation of standard bidding documents, setting up of District Mineral Foundation and National Mineral Exploration Trust and most importantly hand holding the state governments, and strengthening their capacity to deal with the transition to the auction regime without any disruption in the production of important minerals.

RAILWAYS 6.42 Indian Railways (IR) is faced with the challenge of sustaining traffic volume in an environment of moderate growth. The key focus areas for IR include creation of capacity, modernization of network, improvement in asset utilization and productivity, modernization of rolling stock and maintenance practices, and improvement in the quality of services. Investments are being prioritized in important areas like Dedicated Freight Corridors (DFCs) , high speed rail, high capacity rolling stock, last mile rail linkages, and port connectivity. Box 6.3 lists some of the initiatives by IR. Freight performance 6.43 Freight loading (excluding loading by Konkan Railways) by IR during 2013-14 was 1051.64 million tonnes, as against 1008.09 million tonnes in 2012-13, registering an increase of 4.32 per cent. During April -December 2014-15, IR carried 806.38 million tonnes of revenue-earning freight traffic, as against a budget target of 807.18 million tonnes. The freight carried shows an increase of 39.15 million tonnes over the freight traffic during the same period in 2013-14, translating into an increase of 5.1 per cent.

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Economic Survey 2014-15

Box 6.3 : New initiatives by IR during 2014-15 i.

Completion of Udhampur-Katra broad gauge line: The Udhampur-Katra broad gauge line in Jammu and Kashmir, bringing the state closer to the rest of the nation, is an engineering marvel by IR. Four train services up to Katra have commenced from July 2014.

ii.

Meghalaya gets rail connectivity: Meghalaya got its first rail connectivity with the completion of the new Dubhnoi-Mendipathar line in August 2014. A new route from Mendipathar in Meghalaya to Guwahati in Assam, got connected by rail in November , 2014.

iii. High speed Bullet Trains: Steps are under way for introduction of High Speed Bullet Trains in the country on the Mumbai-Ahmedabad corridor, as part of the Diamond Quadrilateral network of high speed rail, connecting major metros and growth centres of the country. iv.

Next Generation e-ticketing(NgeT) application: The newly launched NgeT, developed by the Central Railway Information Centre (CRIS) has enabled sharp increase in online ticket booking capacity, number of enquiries per minute, as well as the capacity to handle concurrent sessions.

Premium special trains: To make sufficient berths available to passengers, and to earn additional revenue, as compared to trains operating on normal fares, IR has introduced premium special trains under the dynamic fare system.

vi.

Harnessing solar energy: The Rail Coach Factory, Rae Bareli is presently functioning completely on solar power. A 30 kw solar plant has been commissioned, on the roof top of Rail Bhawan at New Delhi and provision of solar plants at other Railway buildings is being expedited , preferably under the public-private partnership (PPP) model.

vii. Wi-Fi Broadband service at select railway stations: Bengaluru and New Delhi Railway Stations have been provided Wi-Fi broadband facilities. viii. e-catering service in trains: Indian Railways Catering and Tourism Corporation, has been entrusted the task of implementation of e-catering service in trains. ix.

Cooperation with China : An MoU and an Action Plan have been signed between the Government of India and People's Republic of China, for enhancing technical cooperation in the railway sector. The potential cooperation areas in the MoU include i) training in heavy haul freight transportation, ii) raising speed of trains on existing routes, iii) station re-development, iv) high speed rail, and v) setting up of a Railway University.

Early completion of coal transportation projects: Three rail connectivity projects for coal movement in Jharkhand, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh have been put on fast track.

Semi-high speed trains

ROADS

6.44 Nine corridors have been identified for the introduction of semi-high speed trains at 160/200 kilometers per hour (kmph), viz. (i) Delhi-Agra (ii) Delhi-Chandigarh (iii) Delhi-Kanpur (iv) Nagpur-Bilaspur (v) Mysore-Bengaluru-Chennai (vi)Mumbai-Goa (vii) Mumbai-Ahmedabad (viii) Chennai-Hyderabad; and (ix) NagpurSecunderabad. All technical inputs required for running of commercial services at 160 kmph, on the New Delhi-Agra corridor, have been provided, and the corridor is ready for introducing the service. A feasibility study for raising the speed on the Chennai-Bengaluru-Mysore corridor is being taken up under a co-operation agreement with China.

6.45 India has one of the largest road networks of over 48.65 lakh km, comprising expressways, national highways, state highways, major district roads, other district roads, and village Roads. The national highways (NHs) with a total length of 96,214 km serve as the arterial network of the country. Table 6.7 shows the status of the National Highways Development Project (NHDP) as on 31 December 2014. Financing of NHDP 6.46 To fund the NHDP, a part of the fuel cess imposed on petrol and diesel is allocated as budgetary support. The National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) leverages this to borrow

Industrial, Corporate, and Infrastructure Performance

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Table 6.7 : Status of NHDP as on 31 December 2014 Sl. No. NHDP component

2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

NHDP Phase I (GQ, port connectivity, others) NS-EW Corridors NHDP Phase III NHDP Phase IV NHDP Phase V NHDP Phase VI

NHDP Phase VII Total

Total length (km)

Completed 4/6 lane(km)

Under implementation Balance for Length No. of award of civil (km) contracts works (km)

7,522*

7,519

6,647 12,109 20,000 6,500 1,000

5,836 6,352 907 1,973 0

441 4,708 7,759 2,107 0

45 125 114 27 0

370 1,049 11,334 2,420 1,000

700

659

54478

22609

15037

313

16832

Note : * Two projects ( 24 km ) for Chennai â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ennore port connectivity have been re-awarded. These two projects were merged with another project ( 6 km ) under Phase â&#x20AC;&#x201C; I whereby total length increased by 24 km.

additional funds from the debt market. Till date, such borrowings have been limited to funds raised through 54 EC (capital gains tax exemption) bonds and tax-free Bonds. 6.47 The economic down turn seen in the last few years caused reduction in the growth of traffic and consequently lower revenue realization for build operate transfer (BOT) road projects. The reduced revenue realization adversely affected debt servicing by concessionaires. This caused widespread default in debt accounts. Concessionaires unable to service debt had to seek restructuring from lenders. With debt obligations mounting on account of debt repayment deferments, sector exposure increased, reaching the ceiling exposure norms for the road sector. The road sector debt portfolio faced disproportionately high levels of default. Consequently the appetite for BOT PPP projects came down as developers had no equity to contribute and lenders were unwilling to provide debt funds. The government stepped in and took various initiatives to restore market confidence. To ensure that project execution does not suffer owing to cash flow constraints, rescheduling of premium payment in BOT projects has been granted, to be available to concessionaires experiencing subsistence revenue shortfall.

Improvement of road connectivity in left-wing extremism (LWE)-affected areas 6.48 The government has approved a scheme for development of 1,126 km of national highways and 4,351 km of state roads in left -wing extremism (LWE) affected areas as a special project with an estimated cost of about ` 7,300 crore. Development in 3,299 km length has been completed up to December 2014 and cumulative expenditure incurred so far is ` 4,374 crore. Creation of a corporation to expedite works in the North-Eastern Region 6.49 The National Highways and Infrastructure Development Corporation Ltd. has been created to expedite development of highways in the NorthEastern region and border areas.

CIVIL AVIATION 6.50 One of the significant achievements of the civil aviation sector is that the PPP model for airports has led to a significant improvement in infrastructure and in collection of revenues. Passenger and cargo handled 6.51 There has been healthy increase in international passengers and cargo handled at

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Economic Survey 2014-15

Indian airports during 2014-15. During April December 2014-15, 101.34 million domestic passengers and 36.74 million international passengers were handled at Indian airports. Domestic passenger traffic throughput increased by 7.1 per cent and international passengers increased by 10.3 per cent during April-December 2014-15 as compared to the same period in 201314. International cargo throughput at Indian airports was 1.17 million metric tons while domestic cargo throughput stood at 0.74 million metric tons. International cargo throughput increased by 8.3 per cent and domestic by 19.3 per cent in April â&#x20AC;&#x201C;December 2014-15 as compared to the corresponding period of previous year. Airport Infrastructure 6.52 The Airports Authority of India (AAI) is managing 125 airports in the country. It has finalized a no frills airport model to build airports in remote areas with the objective of improving air connectivity and boosting the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic growth. During 2014-15, the AAI has completed development of airports at Bikaner and Jaisalmer (Rajasthan), Bhatinda (Punjab), and Cuddapah (Andhra Pradesh). Initiatives 6.53 The major initiatives to augment better airport infrastructure across the country are: (a) implementation of PPP projects at four airports of the AAI, namely Chennai, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, and Jaipur, (b) setting up of greenfield

airports, namely, Mopa in Goa; Navi Mumbai, Shirdi and Sindhudurg in Maharashtra; Shimoga, Gulbarga, Hassan, and Bijapur in Karnataka; Kannur and Arnamula in Kerala; Durgapur in West Bengal; Pakyong in Sikkim; Datia/Gwalior (cargo) in Madhya Pradesh; Kushinagar in Uttar Pradesh; and Karaikal in Puducherry, and (c) development of small airports in Tier II and Tier III cities, namely Hubli and Belgaum in Karnataka, Kishangarh in Rajasthan, Jharsuguda in Odisha, and Tezu in Arunachal Pradesh.

PORTS Cargo traffic at Indian Ports 6.54 During April-December, 2014-15, major and non-major ports achieved a total cargo throughput of 775.17 million tonnes, showing an increase of 6.8 per cent over the same period of 2013-14 (Table 6.8). The growth of cargo at nonmajor ports was 9.1 per cent while that at major ports was 5.0 per cent.

TELECOMMUNICATIONS 6.55 The telecom sector continues to grow rapidly. During April-November 2014-15, 31.2 million new telephone connections were added, way ahead of the 12.13 million new connections in the corresponding period of 2013-14. Overall teledensity has increased from 75.23 per cent at the beginning of April 2014 to 77.12 per cent at the end of November 2014, while total broadband connections have touched 82.22 million.

Table 6.8 : Cargo Traffic at Ports (million tonnes) Category of ports

2012-13

2013-14

April-December 2013-14

2014-15

Major ports

545.83

555.49 (1.8)

413.06

433.86

Non-major ports

387.92

420.24 (8.3)

312.84

341.31

All ports

933.75

975.73 (4.5)

725.90

775.17

Source : Ministry of Shipping. Note : Figures in parentheses indicate growth over the previous year.

Industrial, Corporate, and Infrastructure Performance

National Optical Fibre Network Project 6.56 In order to ensure equity in access and to accelerate socio-economic growth in rural areas, the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has planned to connect all 2,50,000 Gram Panchayats in the country with minimum 100 Mbps bandwidth under the National Optical Fibre Network Project (NOFN). Cable laying has been completed in about 5000 villages and the project is likely to be completed by 31 December 2016. Spectrum Auction 6.57 The DoT plans to conduct auction of spectrum in 2100 MHz, 1800 MHz, 900 MHz, and 800 MHz bands. A roadmap will also be chalked out for providing more spectrums, as per the National Telecom Policy 2012, keeping in view the objective of affordable and reliable communication services to serve public interest.

URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE 6.58 Urbanization in India has become an irreversible process and an important determinant of national economic growth and poverty reduction. The increased pace of urbanization poses challenges with respect to providing adequate infrastructure, improving connectivity, and mobilizing resources The level of urbanization has

105

increased from 27.78 per cent in 2001 to 31.18 per cent in 2011. According to Census 2011, as many as thirty-five cities in India had a million plus population. At current rates of growth, urban population in India is projected to reach 575 million by 2030. New schemes 6.59 Three new schemes have been announced for development of urban infrastructure. These are the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM), Heritage City Development and Augmentation Yojana (HRIDAY), and Smart City Scheme. All statutory towns will be covered under the SBM which will be in force till 2 October 2019. The objectives of the SBM are elimination of open defecation, eradication of manual scavenging, modern and scientific solid waste management, and generating awareness about sanitation and its linkage with public health. The objective of HRIDAY is to preserve the character of a heritage city and facilitate inclusive heritage-linked urban development by exploring various avenues including involvement of the private sector. It is proposed to develop 100 smart cities identified on the basis of stipulated criteria .These cities will have smart (intelligent) physical, social, institutional, and economic infrastructure to improve public services.

Services Sector

CHAPTER

India’s dynamic services sector has grown rapidly in the last decade with almost 72.4 per cent of the growth in India’s GDP in 2014-15 coming from this sector. Unlike other developing economies, the Indian growth story has been led by services-sector growth which is now in double digits.

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON World Services GDP 7.2 In 2013 in the US$ 75.6 trillion world gross domestic product (GDP)(at current prices) the share of services improved marginally to 66.0 per cent while growth rate (at constant prices) decelerated marginally to 2.1 per cent over 2012. However, in the last twelve years, the share of services in world GDP has declined by 2.8 percentage points (pp). The US ranks first in services GDP as well as in overall GDP, with China and Japan a distant second and third. Among the world’s top 15 countries in terms of GDP, India ranked 10th in terms of overall GDP and 11th in terms of services GDP in 2013. However, among these top fifteen nations, in the period 2001-13, maximum increase in services share to GDP was recorded by Spain (8.6 pp) followed by India (5.7 pp) and China (5.6 pp). During this period, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7 per cent, India had the second fastest growing services sector, just below China’s 10.7 per cent. Among these top fifteen countries, only China’s share of services in its total GDP is less than 50 per cent (Table 7.1). World Services Employment 7.3 As per the International Labour Organization’s (ILO) Global Employment Trends

2014, services accounted for more than half of total global employment growth of 1.4 per cent in 2013 over 2012. The share of services in world income declined from 68.8 per cent in 2001 to 66 per cent in 2013, while its share in employment increased from 39.1 per cent to 45.1 per cent. For the top fifteen countries, except India and China, the shares of both services GDP and services employment are high and close to each other. India’s services sector has a high share in income and relatively low share in employment, while in China, the shares of both services income and services employment are relatively low. But in both these countries, the shares of services in both GDP and employment have increased in the last twelve years. World Services Trade 7.4 During 2001-13 the CAGR of world commercial services exports was 10 per cent, with India at the top among the top fifteen largest economies at 20.1 per cent followed by China at 16.5 per cent. In 2013, the US$ 4.6 trillion world commercial services exports grew by 5.6 per cent. Services exports of the United States, the largest exporter of commercial services, grew by 5 per cent while they decelerated for China to 7.5 per cent and India to 3.6 per cent due to decline in exports of transport services by 3 per cent in both countries. Services imports of India fell by 2.7 per cent and China’s grew by 17.6 per cent.

Services Sector

107

Table 7.1 : Performance in Services: International Comparison Country

Rank in GDP Services growth rate Share of services Services export growth Over Ser(per cent) CAGR in in in total (per cent) CAGR a l l vices Y-o-Y 2001GDP employment exports Y-o-Y 20012001 2013 1 3 2001 2013 2001 2013 2001 2013 2001 2013 13

2.1

1.7

1.8

77.6

78.6

75.0

81.2

27.2

29.5

-3.6

5.0

7.7

China

10.3

8.3

10.7

40.5

46.1

27.7

35.7

11.0

8.5

9.1

7.5

16.5

Japan

1.3

0.8

0.7

69.0

72.4

63.9

69.7

13.6

16.9

-6.9

2.0

7.1

Germany

3.1

0.1

0.9

68.8

68.4

64.6

70.2

12.8

16.5

5.6

7.8

10.7

France

2.0

0.6

1.4

74.7

78.5

69.9

74.9

19.8

29.0

-0.5

9.7

9.5

3.4

2.0

2.2

73.6

79.2

73.8

78.9

30.1

35.1

-0.8

1.5

7.9 12.9

Brazil

1.8

2.1

3.5

67.1

69.4

59.4

62.7

13.0

13.4

-2.7

-1.7

Italy

2.3

-1.3

0.2

70.5

74.4

63.1

68.5

18.9

17.6

2.1

6.1

5.6

Russia

3.3

2.0

5.1

55.6

59.8

58.6

62.3

9.9

11.0

17.3

11.2

4.0

India

7.5

6.7

8.7

51.3

57.0

24.0

28.1

27.9

32.5

4.8

3.6

20.1

Canada

3.5

1.8

2.5

65.9

70.4

74.7

76.5

12.7

14.6

-3.6

0.0

6.2

Australia

3.7

2.5

3.0

69.9

69.7

74.2

75.5

21.8

17.1

-8.9

-0.1

9.4

Spain

4.0

-1.1

2.3

65.3

73.9

62.0

74.9

32.2

31.5

6.0

6.1

8.4

South Korea

5.0

2.9

3.7

59.0

59.1

62.6

76.4

16.3

16.6

-4.9

1.3

15.7

Mexico

1.1

2.4

3.2

57.7

58.9

56.1

61.9

7.2

4.9

-7.5

21.3

11.8

2.5

2.1

2.5

68.8

66.0

39.1

45.1

19.4

19.8

0.1

5.6

9.9

World

Source : Computed from UN National Accounts Statistics for GDP, World Bank and ILO database for employment and WTO database for Services Trade. Notes :

Rank and share are based on current prices (2013); growth rates are based on constant prices (US$); construction sector is excluded in services GDP; for employment data in 2013, the available data of nearest preceding years is used.

7.5 In Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2014, world services exports grew by 5.7 per cent, 6.4 per cent, and 4.7 per cent respectively. India’s services export growth was at 7.4 per cent in Q1 but decelerated to 2.8 per cent and 2.7 per cent in Q2 and Q3. Its services import growth fell by 3.9 per cent in Q1 but grew by 0.3 per cent and 2.7 per cent in Q2 and Q3 respectively.

to inflows in the top services sector as corroborated by the Indian data.

Foreign Direct Investment in World Services Sector

Services GDP Formation

7.6 In 2014, global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined by 8 per cent to an estimated US$ 1.3 trillion, due to the fragility of the global economy, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risks as per the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). China became the world’s largest recipient of FDI, with an increase of 3 per cent driven by FDI in the services sector while FDI in manufacturing fell. India’s FDI rose by around 26 per cent to an estimated US$ 35 billion also due

7.8 As per the new method of India’s National Accounts Statistics, the services sector accounting for 51.3 per cent of India’s gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (current prices) in 2013-14, grew by 9.1 per cent compared to 6.6 per cent total GVA growth and 6.9 per cent GDP growth at market prices. Including construction, a borderline service, the services share is 59.6 per cent and growth is 8.1 per cent (Table 7.2).

INDIA’S SERVICES SECTOR 7.7 Services in India are emerging as a prominent sector in terms of contribution to national and states’ incomes, trade flows, FDI inflows, and employment. and

Gross

Capital

7.9 Interestingly, the services sector has the highest share (54.6 per cent) in the gross capital

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Table 7.2 : Share and Growth of Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Services Sector (GVA at basic price) ( per cent) GVA

GCF #

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2012-13

2013-14

Total Services

50.0 (8.0)

51.3 (9.1)

53.0 (10.6 )

53.8 (-1.9)

54.6 (3.1)

Trade, repair, hotels, and restaurants

11.3 (10.3)

12.0(13.3)

18.7 (8.4) *

9.6 (46.9)

11.5 (21.2)

10.2 (11.1)

11.0(14.3)

8.6 (59.9)

10.6 (23.5)

Hotels & restaurants

1.1 (3.3)

1.1 (3.9)

0.9 (-15.6)

0.9 (-0.3)

Transport, storage, communication & services related to broadcasting (of which)

6.6 (8.4)

6.6 (7.3)

6.8 (-4.1)

5.5(-16.4)

Railways

0.8 (18.0)

0.8 (9.3)

1.1 (11.0)

1.2

Road transport

3.3 (7.5)

3.2 (5.0)

2.5 (-16.6)

1.6(-35.8)

Air transport

0.1 (-5.9)

0.1 (6.0)

Financial services

5.9 (6.7)

5.8 (6.4)

Real estate, ownership of dwelling & professional services

13.6 (9.8)

14.0 (8.5)

Public administration and defence

6.0 (3.2)

6.0 (4.9)

Other services

6.6 (6.2)

6.9(10.7)

Construction

8.7 (-4.3)

Total Services (+ construction) TOTAL GVA / GFC

Trade & repair services

20.9(13.7)^

(5.6)

0.2 (-11.4)

0.0(-72.4)

1.3 (-9.8)

1.1(-10.6)

22.7 (-15.1)

20.1(-10.2)

13.4 (9.0)@

8.5

(1.7)

4.9

(4.2)

5.8 (20.3)

8.3 (2.5)

8.0 (4.5)

5.8 (-11.5)

5.4 (-4.4)

58.7 (6.0)

59.6 (8.1)

61.0 (7.1)

59.6 (-3.0)

60.0 (2.4)

100.0 (4.9)

100.0 (6.6)

100.0 (7.5)

100.0 (-0.7)

100.0 (1.4)

(6.9)

(7.4)

GDP (market price constant 2011-12)

(5.1)

10.6 (26.3)

Source : Central Statistics Office (CSO). Notes : Shares are in current prices and growth in constant 2011-12 prices; Figures in parentheses indicate growth rate; # AE for 2014-15.* Also includes transport, communication and services related to broadcast, ^ Also includes real estate and professional services, @ Also includes other services. This is based on new method followed by the CSO.

formation (GCF) of ` 35.4 lakhs in 2013-14. This is owing to the GCF in real estate, ownership of dwelling and professional services at 20.1 per cent, though the share has fallen in the last two years, followed by trade and repair services (10.6 per cent) and public administration and defence (10.6 per cent) where there is improvement in shares. The growth rate of services GCF at 3.1 per cent has also been higher than the total GCF growth of 1.4 per cent. Infact, the positive GCF growth in services led to positive growth in total GCF as GCF growth in agriculture and industry was negative at - 0.3 per cent and - 0.6 per cent respectively. GCF growth in manufacturing was even more negative at - 5.4 per cent.

7.10 As per the old method of estimating GDP at factor cost (GDP at FC), the services sector accounting for 57 per cent of GDP grew by 6.8 per cent in 2013-14, marginally lower than in 2012-13. This is mainly due to a fall in the growth rate of the combined category of trade, hotels, and restaurants and transport, storage, and communications to 3.0 per cent from 5.1 per cent in 2012-13, and in spite of robust growth of financing, insurance, real estate, and business services at 12.9 per cent. The somewhat differing results in services growth under the two methods are due to conceptual changes of GDP at FC to basic price and adoption of latest data sources. There was also drastic decline in services share under the new method. The major change took

Services Sector

place in the share of trade, repair, hotels, and restaurants from 17.2 per cent in 2012-13 using the old factor cost method to 11.3 per cent using the new basic price method. This is because trade carried out by manufacturing companies has now been shifted to manufacturing from trade and the data on unorganized trade enterprises has been updated with the 2010-11 survey instead of the 1999-2000 survey. However, this sectorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth was much higher using the new method than under the old method. 7.11 As per the Advance Estimates (AE) in 2014-15, growth of the services sector accelerated further to 10.6 per cent as compared to 9.1 per cent in 2013-14. This is mainly due to growth acceleration in financial, real estate, and professional services to 13.7 per cent from 7.9 per cent and public administration, defence, and other services to 9.0 per cent from 7.9 per cent in the previous year. There was also good growth in trade, hotels, transport, communication, and related services at 8.4 per cent in 2014-15 though it was lower than the 11.1 per cent growth in 2013-14.

109

State-wise Comparison of Services 7.12 The services sector is the dominant sector in most states of India with a share of more than 40 per cent in the gross state domestic product (GSDP) in 2013-14 except for Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim (Figure 7.1). Chandigarh is at the top with a share of 88.4 per cent followed by Delhi with 87.7 per cent. The major services in most of the states with high share are trade, hotels, and restaurants followed by real estate, ownership of dwellings and business services. Banking and insurance has an important share only in a few states/ union territories (UT) like Delhi, Maharashtra, and Chandigarh. In 2013-14, Bihar had the highest services growth of 17.3 per cent and Uttarkhand the lowest of 5.5 per cent. Bihar has been consistently showing double-digit growth in the services sector in the last five years due to high growth in trade, hotels, and restaurants. FDI in Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Services Sector 7.13 The ambiguity in classifying FDI in different activities under the services sector continues. The combined FDI share of financial and non-financial services under services sector, construction

Source : Computed from CSO data. Note : Share at current prices, growth rate at constant (2004-05) prices; * indicates 2012-13 data; Andhra Pradesh-undivided.

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Table 7.3 : FDI Equity Inflows in the Services Sector Ranks

Sector

Value (in US $ million) Percen- Growth rate 20132014- Cumulative tage to 2013- 2014-15 14 15 (Apr. (Apr. 2000total 14 (Apr. Nov.) Nov. 2014) Nov.)

Services sector (financial & non-financial)

2225

1847

41307

17.5

-54.0

24.9

Construction development #

1226

703

24009

10.2

-8.0

-20.9

Telecommunications *

1307

2472

16635

7.0

329.9

7390.9

Computer software & hardware

1126

862

13679

5.8

131.7

62.9

Hotel &tourism

486

544

7662

3.2

-85.1

180.4

6370

6428

103291

43.7

-37.6

105.8

24299

18884

236465

100

8.4

22.2

Total top five services Total FDI inflows

Source : Based on Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) data. Note :

# indicates township, housing, built-up infrastructure; * indicates radio paging, cellular mobile, basic telephone services.

development, telecommunications, computer hardware and software, and hotels and tourism can be taken as the best estimate of services FDI, though it could include some non-service elements. This share is 43.7 per cent of the cumulative FDI equity inflows during the period April 2000November 2014. If the shares of some other services or service-related sectors like trading, information and broadcasting, construction (infrastructure) activities, consultancy services, hospital and diagnostic centres, ports, agriculture services, education, air transport including air freight, and retail trading are included, then the total share of cumulative FDI inflows to the services sector would increase to 53.8 per cent. In 2013-14, FDI inflows to the services sector (top five sectors including construction) declined sharply by 37.6 per cent to US$ 6.4 billion, though overall FDI inflows grew by 8.4 per cent. However, during 2014-15 (April to November), the FDI inflows to services grew by 105.8 per cent compared to 22.2 per cent growth in overall FDI inflows. The total FDI inflows to the top five services in the first eight months of this year are higher than for the whole of 2013-14 owing to major inflows in telecommunications (Table 7.3). India’s Services Trade 7.14 India’s share in global exports of commercial services increased to 3.2 per cent in 2013 from 1.2 per cent in 2000. Its ranking among

the leading exporters in 2013 was sixth. After witnessing high growth during 2002-03 to 2008-09 with a CAGR of 31.2 per cent, and a pick up and good growth in 2010-11 and 2011-12 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, export growth of services decelerated in 2012-13 to 3.4 per cent. In 2013-14 services exports grew by 4.0 per cent to US$ 151.5 billion and services imports declined by 2.8 per cent to US$ 78.5 billion resulting in net services of US$ 73.0 billion with 12.4 per cent growth. In the first half of 2014-15, services exports grew by 3.7 per cent to US$ 75.9 billion and import of services grew by 5.0 per cent to US$ 39.9 billion, resulting in net services growth of only 2.4 per cent (Table 7.4). Net services has been a major source of financing India’s trade deficit in recent years. Surplus on account of services exports financed 49.4 per cent and 49.3 per cent of merchandise trade deficit in 2013-14 and H1 of 2014-15 respectively. Two recent developments in India’s exports sector are the rising foreign value added content and services value added content (Box 7.1). 7.15 India’s major services exports in 2013-14 are computer services (45.8 per cent share); other business services (18.8 per cent share) including professional and consulting services (10.2 per cent share), technical and trade-related services (7.8 per cent share) and R & D services (0.8 per

Services Sector

111

Table 7.4 : Export Performance of Major Services

Total services exports Transport Travel Construction Financial, insurance, & pension services Telecommunications services Computer services Other business services R & D services Professional& consulting services Technical,trade-related,& others Net services exports

Value (US$ bn) 2013-14

Share (per cent) 2013-14

Export growth rate (per cent) 201220132013201413 14 14 H1 15 H1

151.5 17.4 17.9 1.3 8.8 2.4 69.4 28.5

100 11.5 11.8 0.9 5.8 1.6 45.8 18.8

3.4 -5.1 -2.5 24.9 -16.5 2.0 5.9 15.8

4.0 0.3 -0.4 33.3 22.2 43.0 5.4 0.1

3.4 -2.1 4.8 37.2 23.3 38.4 5.6 -0.1

3.7 8.5 18.0 36.0 -11.8 -22.2 5.1 -3.9

1.1 15.5 11.8 73.0

0.8 10.2 7.8 —

17.0 26.0 6.8 1.4

24.0 10.4 -12.2 12.4

9.7 7.1 -8.6 12.6

6.3 -6.7 -1.4 2.4

Source : RBI’s Balance of Payments (BoP) data (BPM-6).

Box 7.1 : Services GVA Content in India’s Exports As per the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) TiVA (trade in value added) data, domestic value added content in India’s gross exports was 78 per cent in 2009, a little above the OECD average (76 per cent ), but 12 pp lower than in 1995, reflecting increasing fragmentation of production and integration with global value chains. Interestingly, services value added content of India’s exports at 52.4 per cent in 2009, is marginally higher than the OECD average (48 per cent). India is fifth highest in terms of services value added content in its exports after Hong Kong, Iceland, Singapore, and EU-27. There is also a 15.4 pp increase over 1995 (Figure 1). This has been driven by increasing direct exports of services and more than doubling of foreign services content of exports also indicating greater integration with global value chains.

A study for the Ministry of Finance, Government of India (GoI) by Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) also shows rising share of foreign value added in India’s exports. The increase was higher in merchandise exports from 11.2 per cent in 1995 to 25.7 per cent in 2011 than in services exports, where it increased from 6.4 per cent to 8.5 per cent. Source : Based on OECD and ICRIER reports

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cent share); travel (11.8 per cent share); transport (11.5 per cent share); and financial, insurance and pension services (5.8 per cent share). In 2013-14, there was deceleration in export growth of software services to 5.4 per cent, negative growth of - 0.4 per cent in travel, and marginal growth in transport (0.3 per cent) and other business services (0.1 per cent). However, moving in tandem with global exports of financial services, India’s exports of financial services registered a high growth of 34.4 per cent. In the first half of 2014-15, export growth decelerated further for computer services (5.1 per cent ) and was negative for other business services (- 3.9 per cent) and financial, insurance, and pension services (-11.8 per cent). But growth was robust for travel

(18.0 per cent) with pick up in foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) and foreign exchange earnings (FEEs) in dollar terms and good for transport (8.5 per cent) due to pick up in India’s external trade by 2.5 per cent in H1 of 2014-15 compared to 0.8 per cent in the previous year. 7.16 There are many market access barriers and domestic regulations in India’s services sector (see Economic Survey 2012-13 and 2013-14). Given the potential of India’s services sector, removal of many of these barriers both domestically and internationally is of vital importance. Servicessector negotiations both at multilateral and bilateral/ regional levels are therefore of special significance to India (See Box 7.2).

Box 7.2 : WTO Services Negotiations and Bilateral Negotiations including Services Trade WTO Negotiations: India’s Stand • The post Bali work programme has to be within the mandate of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) and valuable milestones such as the Annex C on ‘Services’ of the Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration (HKMD) which contains the roadmap for conclusion of the Doha Round. • India does not support any cherry picking of issues or sectors of interest to certain economies in the name of concluding the Doha Round and the level of ambition across the negotiating pillars including in services would be governed by agriculture. • Since development is the central theme of the Doha negotiations, commitments in areas of export interest to developing countries and least developed countries (LDCs) is crucial for the success of the round. In the past, India has been dismayed by the negligible progress in Mode 4 offers. • Preferential treatment for the LDCs in the World Trade Organization (WTO): At the High Level Meeting of the WTO services council on 5 February 2015, discussions were held to operationalize the Bali decision on LDC services waiver. India has been a generous partner for LDCs and offered market access for contractual services suppliers and independent professionals under Mode 4 in sectors like engineering services, integrated engineering services, computer and related services, some important management consulting and project management services, hotel and other lodging services, travel agency, tour operator services and tourist guides conversant in a foreign language, other than English. An exclusive quota of 250, only for tourist guides from LDCs was offered. India has also agreed to waive visa fee for LDC applicants seeking Indian business or employment visas. Bilateral Agreements: Status • India has signed Comprehensive Bilateral Agreements with the Governments of Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and Malaysia. A Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in services and investment was signed with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in September 2014. • India has joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) plurilateral negotiations and is continuously engaged in the bilateral FTA negotiations including Trade in Services with Canada, Israel, Thailand, the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), Australia, New Zealand, and the EU. Negotiations with Canada and Australia have not progressed much and modalities for the negotiations are still being discussed. Negotiations with Thailand are at an advanced stage and with EFTA are more or less over. India is also engaged in bilateral trade dialogues with the US under the India-US Trade Policy Forum (TPF), with Australia under the India-Australia Joint Ministerial Commission (JMC), with China under the India-China Working-Group on Services, and with Brazil under the India-Brazil Trade Monitoring Mechanism (TMM). Source: Department of Commerce, Government of India.

113

Services Sector

Table 7. 5 : Sector-wise Employment Trends (UPS) Absolute number(million) (Share in percent given in parentheses)

Employment elasticity

1993-94

1999-00

2004-05

2009-10

2011-12

1993-94 to 1999-00

1999-00 to 2004-05

2004-05 to 2009-10

2009-10 to 2011-12

Agriculture

204.3 (61.1)

214.7 (58.5)

226.8 (54.5)

220.5 (51.6)

204.4 (47.1)

0.3

0.7

-0.2

-0.5

Industry

53.5 (16.0)

61.7 (16.8)

81.0 (19.5)

93.1 (21.8)

106.1 (24.4)

0.4

0.9

0.3

0.9

Services

76.6 (22.9)

90.6 (24.7)

108.0 (26.0)

113.7 (26.6)

123.9 (28.5)

0.3

0.5

0.1

0.5

Trade, hotels, and restaurants

26.8 (8.0)

34.1 (9.3)

46.5 (11.2)

48.4 (11.3)

50.5 (11.6)

0.4

0.8

0.1

0.3

Transport, storage, and communication

11.0 (3.3)

15.0 (4.1)

18.7 (4.5)

19.9 (4.6)

22.8 (5.2)

0.5

0.4

0.1

0.6

Financial, insurance, real estate and business services

3.7 (1.1)

4.8 (1.3)

7.5 (1.8)

9.4 (2.2)

10.7 (2.5)

0.5

1.6

0.4

0.6

Community, social, and 35.1 personal services (10.5)

36.7 (10.0)

35.3 (8.5)

36.1 (8.4)

39.9 (9.2)

0.1

-0.2

0.1

1.1

367.0 (100.0)

415.7 (100.0)

427.4 (100.0)

434.4 (100.0)

0.2

0.4

0.1

Total

334.4 (100.0)

Source : Based on data from National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) different round reports and CSO. Note :

Employment elasticity is calculated by CAGR method, Employment elasticity = (CAGR employment) / (CAGR GDP at FC constant 2004-05 prices) for the respective period. UPS- usual principal status

India’s Services Employment 7.17 The pattern of the sectoral share of employment has changed over the last two decades with the share of agriculture falling and of industry and services rising steadily. Services share in employment at 28.5 per cent in 2011-12 is higher than in industry at 24.4 per cent. Among the different services sectors, from 1993-94 to 2011-12, there was continuous increase in employment share in trade, hotels, and restaurants; transport, storage, and communication; and financial, insurance, real estate and business services. Employment share in community, social, and personal services has fallen continuously except in 2011-12 when there was an increase compared to 2009-10 and 2004-05. Employment elasticity has increased for both services and industry in 2009-10 to 2011-12 compared to 2004-05 to 2009-10, though industry had relatively higher employment elasticity. Among

services, employment elasticity was the highest in ‘financial, insurance, real estate, and business services’ and ‘transport, storage, and communication’ (Table 7.5).

MAJOR SERVICES: OVERALL PERFORMANCE 7.18 Some available indicators of the different services in India for 2014-15 show reasonably good performance of tourism, telecom, aviation, and railways (Table 7.6). Estimates of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) derived from limited firm-level data indicates improved performance in retail trading, aviation, telecom, and transport logistics. Other estimates like the HSBC’s services PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) data indicate improvement in services sector growth in the current year as the reading was above 50 in all months since May 2014 and it was at 52.6 in November 2014, 51.1 in December 2014 and 52.4 in January 2015.

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Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 7.6 : Performance of India’s Services Sector: Some Indicators Sector

Indicators

Aviation Telecom Tourism

Shipping Ports Railways Storage

Airline passengers (domestic and international)* Telecom connections (wireline and wireless)b Foreign tourist arrivalsa Foreign exchange earnings from tourist arrivalsa Gross tonnage of Indian shippingb No. of shipsb Port traffic Freight traffic by railwaysc Net tonne kilometres of railwaysc Storage capacity No. of warehouses

Unit

Period

Million

2009-10 77.4

2013-14 103.7

2014-15 (68.0)74.9#

Million

621.3

933.0

(910.1)964.2#

5.2 11.1

7.0 18.4

7.5 19.7

9.7 1003 850.0 887.8 600.5 106.0 487

10.5 1213 975.7 1051.6 665.8 105.6 471

10.3@ 1209@ (725.9)775.2@ (767.2)806.4@ (478.9)506.9@ 103.1# 470#

Million US $ billion Million GT Numbers Million tonnes Million tonnes Billion Lakh MT Numbers

Sources: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), Ministry of Tourism, Ministry of Shipping, Ministry of Railways, Directorate General of Civil Aviation, Central Warehousing Corporation. Notes :

calendar years, for example 2009-10 for 2009; b As on 31 March of ensuing financial year; c data from 200910 to 2012-13 is on carried basis, while that for 2013-14 and 2014-15 is on originating basis; * foreign airlines included for international passenger; # data is upto November 2014; @ data is upto December 2014; data in parentheses are for same period of 2013-14. GT=gross tonnage; MT=metric tonnes.

MAJOR SERVICES: SECTOR-WISE PERFORMANCE AND SOME RECENT POLICIES 7.19 This section includes some of the important commercial services for India based on their significance in terms of GDP, employment, exports, and future prospects. Some important services covered in other chapters have been excluded to avoid duplication. Tourism 7.20 According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), the US$ 7 trillion travel and tourism sector’s contribution to world GDP increased in 2013 to 9.5 per cent, creating 4.7 million new jobs. This resulted in total employment in this sector of nearly 266 million, that is one in eleven jobs in the world. This sector is estimated to grow by 4.3 per cent in 2014 and generate 6.5 million new jobs. The latest World Tourism Barometer of the United Nation’s World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) also shows that international tourist arrivals reached 1.1 billion in

2014, a 4.7 per cent increase over the previous year and for 2015 the forecast is a 3 to 4 per cent increase. France has the highest share in International tourist arrivals (ITAs) and the US in International tourism receipts (ITRs) in 2013. India’s share in ITAs is a paltry 0.6 per cent compared to 7.8 per cent in France and 6.4 per cent in the US. Even Vietnam and Indonesia have higher shares than India. However, in terms of ITRs, India’s share at 1.5 per cent is better than those of Vietnam and Indonesia though it is way below the share of the US at 14.5 per cent. Even in terms of growth, countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and Turkey are ahead of India in 2013 (Table 7.7). 7.21 In India’s National Accounts Statistics there is no separate heading for tourism. Some tourism activities like travel agent, tour operator, and other reservation activities are a part of the broad category administrative and support service activities and other professional activities. As per the Second Tourism Satellite Account of India (TSA), the contribution of tourism to total GDP

Services Sector

115

Table 7.7 : Tourism Performance: International Comparison in 2013 Country France US Spain Turkey Thailand Malaysia Singapore Indonesia Vietnam India World

International Tourist Arrivals Numbers Share (%) Growth (%) (in million) 84.7 7.8 2.0 69.8 6.4 4.7 60.7 5.6 5.6 37.8 3.5 5.9 26.5 2.4 18.8 25.7 2.4 2.7 11.9 1.1 7.2 8.8 0.8 9.4 7.6 0.7 10.6 6.8 0.6 4.1 1087 100.0 4.8

International Tourism Receipts Value Share (%) Growth (%) (US $ billion) 56.7 4.7 5.6 173.1 14.5 7.4 60.4 5.1 7.3 28.0 2.3 10.7 42.1 3.5 24.6 21.5 1.8 6.4 19.1 1.6 1.1 9.1 0.8 9.5 7.5 0.6 10.3 18.4 1.5 4.0 1195 100.0 7.2

Source : UNWTO.

during 2012-13 was 6.9 per cent (3.7 per cent direct and 3.1 per cent indirect) and to total employment 12.4 per cent (5.3 per cent direct and 7.0 per cent indirect). After poor foreign exchange earnings (FEE) growth in dollar terms at 4.0 per cent, despite growing foreign tourist arrivals at 5.9 per cent, in 2013, there was an increase in growth of both foreign tourist arrivals (7.1 per cent) and FEEs (6.6 per cent) in 2014. 7.22 In Budget 2014-15, the government announced several measures for boosting tourism like streamlining of some service tax bottlenecks and focused effort for the development of a globalscale Buddhist circuit and cleaning of the Ganga along with creation of world class amenities to enhance the spiritual experience along the holy river. Further, easing of the Indian tourism visa regime through the execution of tourist visa on arrival enabled by electronic travel authorization (ETA) for forty-three countries will provide a major boost to tourism. Some Transport-related Services Shipping 7.23 Shipping is an important indicator of both commodity and services trade of any country. Around 95 per cent of India’s trade by volume and 68 per cent in terms of value is transported by

sea. As on 31 December 2014, India had a fleet strength of 1209 ships with gross tonnage (GT) of 10.3 million, with the public-sector Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) having the largest share of around 31 per cent. Of this, around 358 ships with 9.1 million GT cater to India’s overseas trade and the rest to coastal trade. Despite having one of the largest merchant shipping fleets among developing countries, India’s share in total world dead weight tonnage (DWT) is only 1.1 per cent as on 1 January 2014. In 2013, as per UNCTAD, India with 10.7 million twenty-foot equivalent units of container (TEUs) and a world share of 1.6 per cent ranked eighth among developing countries in terms of container ship operations. 7.24 India continues to be a leading shipbreaking destination. It topped the list of shiprecycling countries in 2014 (January to October) with a world share of 32 per cent, scrapping 234 ships of 7.98 million DWT as per the ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review. India is also a major supplier of seafarers to the world. According to BIMCO/ISF Manpower Update 2010-2014, India supplied 60,000 crew (fresh seamen) and 44,500 officers in 2014. 7.25 The shipping sector has been plagued by economic hardships since 2008. In 2014, all segments of shipping saw intermittent spikes but

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Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 7.8 : Some Performance Indicators of Ports in India 2000-01

2010-11

2012-13

2013-14

(Apr. to Nov) 2014-15

Average turnaround time (days)

4.2

2.7

2.6 (0.0)

2.3 (-0.3)

2.1 (-0.1)

Average pre- berthing time (days)

1.2

0.5

0.5 (0.0)

0.3 (-0.2)

0.2 (-0.1)

6961

9140

11786 (-1287) 12509 (723)

14326 (1817)

Indicators

Average output per ship berth day (in tonnes)

Source : Ministry of Shipping. Note : Changes from previous years are given in parentheses.

there was no secular uptrend in any of them. Further, internationally deliveries of new ships are slated in 2015 which could dampen shipping freight rates even more. The Baltic Dry Index, the barometer of merchandise trade as well as shipping services, which had peaked to 11,793 on 20 May 2008 has been in the lower range since then and is in the red at 530 as on 13 February 2015. 7.26 There has also been a sharp decline in the share of Indian ships in the carriage of Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s overseas trade from about 40 per cent in the late 1980s to 9.1 per cent in 2012-13. The existing Indian fleet is also ageing, with the average age increasing from 15 years in 1999 to 17.7 as on 1 October 2014 (43.1 per cent of the fleet is over 20 years old and 10.7 per cent in the 16-19 age group). Thus there is urgent need to increase Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s shipping fleet. 7.27 Recognizing the need to encourage the growth of Indian tonnage, several policy initiatives were taken which include allowing Indian shipping companies to acquire ships abroad and flag them in the country of their convenience; allowing access to cheaper finance abroad; exemption from customs and central excise duty leviable on bunker fuels used in Indian flag vessels for transportation of export and import items and on empty containers between two or more ports in India; and elimination of registration requirement of ship repair units (SRUs) with the Director General of Shipping. Port Services 7.28 The cargo traffic of Indian ports increased by 4.5 per cent to 975.7 million tonnes in 201314 and by 6.8 per cent in (April-December) 201415 (see Chapter 6). In the Maritime Agenda, a

target of 3130 million tonnes (MT) port capacity has been set for the year 2020 with around ` 2,96,000 crore investment. More than 50 per cent of this capacity is to be created in the nonmajor ports. FDI up to 100 per cent under automatic route is permitted for construction and maintenance of ports. In 2013-14, 16 public private partnership (PPP) projects were awarded at an estimated cost of ` 18,640.8 crore for capacity addition of 159.7 MT in the major ports comprising construction of berths and terminals and mechanization of existing berths. 7.29 The three ports-related performance indicators showed continued improvement with the average turnaround time and average pre-berthing detention time falling to 2.1 days and 0.2 day respectively and the average output per ship berth day improving to 14,326 tonnes in 2014-15 (AprilNovember) (Table 7.8). The improvement in turnaround time and pre-berthing detention time could partly be due to mechanization and systemic improvements in ports and partly to lower volume handled in some ports on account of global downturn. However, the improvement in average output per ship berth day indicates that the performance parameters of Indian ports are also improving Some Professional Services IT and ITeS 7.30 Software development and information technology enabled services (ITeS) including business process management (BPM), software engineering R & D services and product development has emerged as one of the most dynamic and vibrant sectors in Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy.

Services Sector

It is the single largest contributor to services exports. As per AT Kearney’s Global Services Location Index 2014, India ranked first and remains the pre-eminent destination for offshore services, with excellence in IT, BPO, and voice services. The sector continues to be one of the largest employers in the country, directly employing nearly 3.5 million people as per the National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM). 7.31 As per the Central Statistics Office (CSO), computer and related services with a share of 3.3 per cent in India’s GDP grew by 14.4 per cent in 2013-14. As per NASSCOM’s estimate the revenue of the IT-BPM industry at US$119 billion grew by 12 per cent in 2014-15, while the export market at US$ 98 billion grew by 12.3 per cent over the previous year. The BPM sector is being driven by greater automation, expanding omnichannel presence, and application of analytics across the entire value chain. The year also witnessed hyper-growth in the technology startup and software product landscape, India ranking as the fourth largest start-up hub in the world with over 3100 start-ups in the country. The domestic IT-BPM market is estimated at US$ 20.9 billion in 2014-15, with a growth of 10 per cent. Software products and services revenues for 2015-16 is projected to grow at 12-14 per cent to reach US$ 133-136 billion as per NASSCOM. Export revenues are projected to grow by 12 to 14 per cent to reach US$ 110-112 billion and domestic revenues by 10-15 per cent to reach US$ 23-24 billion during 2015-16. 7.32 Recognizing the need for greater penetration of IT services domestically, in Budget 2014-15 Digital India has been envisioned as an ambitious umbrella programme to prepare India for knowledge-based transformation. This would ensure broadband connectivity at village level, improved access to services through IT-enabled platforms, greater transparency in government processes and increased indigenous production of IT hardware and software. One of the important components of this programme is people’s empowerment through availability of entitlements

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on the cloud, coupled with Aadhaar Authentification Platform. A National Rural Internet and Technology Mission for services in villages and schools and E-Kranti for government service delivery are other initiatives. Recognizing the importance of IT, the government’s Make in India mission has included IT and BPM among the twenty-five focus sectors. Research and Development Services 7.33 The Research and Development (R&D) sector has been growing consistently in double digits in the last few years with growth at 20.8 per cent in 2012-13 (old method). Professional, scientific and technical activities including R&D grew by 14.0 per cent in 2013-14 (new method). According to Global R&D Service Providers (GSPR) Rating 2014, a report by Zinnov Management Consulting, India’s R&D globalization and services market is set to double by 2020 to US$ 38 billion. The study estimates the overall addressable R&D globalization and services opportunity at US$ 170 billion as of 2014. Currently only US$ 55 billion of this opportunity is addressed globally. India’s share of the addressed market is 33 per cent with in-house R&D centers contributing US$ 11.3 billion worth of services to their parent companies. 7.34 According to the Global Competitiveness Report 2014-15, India’s capacity for innovation has been lower than that of many countries like the USA, UK, South Korea, and even other BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) except Russia (Table 7.9). Even in quality of scientific research institutions, India scores lower than China, Brazil, and South Africa. This is also exhibited through its poor score on university–industry collaboration on R&D as compared to some other BRICS nations like China and South Africa. In terms of patents granted per million population, India fares badly compared to other BRICS countries. In terms of company spending on R & D also India is far below China. Only in terms of availability of scientists and engineers, India scores better or is equal to other BRICS countries.

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Table 7.9 : Global Competitiveness Index: R & D Innovation Country

Capacity for innovation

Score

Rank

Quality of scientific research institutions Score Rank

Company spending on R&D Score Rank

University – Industry collaboration on R&D Score Rank

Availability of scientists and engineers Score Rank

PCT patents granted/ million population Score Rank

USA

5.9

6.1

5.5

5.8

5.3

149.8

5.3

6.3

4.8

5.7

4.8

89.1

South Korea

4.7

5.0

4.5

4.6

4.4

201.5

South Africa

4.3

4.7

3.4

4.5

3.5

102

6.5

China

4.2

4.3

4.4

11.7

Brazil

4.1

4.0

3.5

3.8

3.3

114

3.2

India

4.0

3.8

3.9

4.4

1.5

Russia

3.8

4.0

3.2

3.6

4.1

7.1

Source : Global Competitiveness Report 2014-15, World Economic Forum. Note :

PCT- Patent Cooperation Treaty.

Consultancy Services 7.35 Consultancy services are emerging as one of the fastest growing services in India cutting across different sectors with some overlapping. According to Plunkett Research, global consulting industry revenues (including human resources [HR], IT, strategy, operations, management, and business advisory services) increased to an estimated $431 billion in 2014 compared to US$ 415 billion during the previous year. India’s outsourcing and consulting industry is estimated at US$ 86.4 billion in 2014, accounting for almost 20 per cent of global consulting industry revenue, and is projected to reach US$ 99.0 billion in 2015. 7.36 India’s emergence as one of the fastest growing consultancy markets worldwide is largely attributable to increased investment activities due to liberalization of FDI, entry of many new players into the Indian market and low cost sourcing. Indian consultants have good expertise particularly in engineering consultancy which could be leveraged to enhance consultancy exports. Real Estate and Housing 7.37 Real estate and ownership of dwelling constitute 7.8 per cent of India’s GDP in 2013-14. Both domestic and global slowdown affected this sector with growth decelerating from 7.6 per cent in 2012-13 to 6.0 per cent in 2013-14 and FDI in

the real estate sector falling to US$ 703 million in the period April-November 2014. 7.38 House prices have increased over the years in many cities and towns as per the National Housing Bank’s RESIDEX index of residential prices in India. In 2014, out of 26 cities, 17 witnessed increase in prices over 2013 with the maximum increase observed in Chennai (17 per cent) followed by Ahmedabad (15 per cent ), while 7 saw decline, with the maximum fall witnessed in Meerut (-16 per cent ) followed by Chandigarh (-8 per cent). 7.39 The widening gap between demand and supply of housing units and affordable housing finance solutions is a major policy concern for India. At present urban housing shortage is 18.8 million units of which 95.6 per cent is in economically weaker sections (EWS) / low income group (LIG) segments and requires huge financial investment to overcome. Institutional credit for housing investment is well below that in countries like China, Thailand, and Malaysia though growing at a CAGR of about 19 per cent per annum. Procedural delay is another major constraint in this sector. According to the World Bank’s ‘Doing Business 2015’, India ranked 184th (out of 189 economies) in terms of construction permits, requiring on an average 27 procedures to get permits as compared to an average of 14 in South

Services Sector

Asia and 12 in OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries. 7.40 Several policy initiatives taken in 2013-14 to help this sector include the amendment of the FDI policy, thereby reducing the minimum floor area to 20,000 sq. m from the earlier 50,000 sq.m and bringing down the minimum capital requirement to US$ 5 million from US$ 10 million. Budget 2014-15 also announced setting up of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and SEBI has approved the REITs regulation. In order to encourage savings, the deduction limit on housing loan interest for self-occupied property was also increased to ` 2 lakh from the earlier ` 1.5 lakh in Budget 2014-15. In order to push development of affordable housing and achieve the target of housing for all by 2022, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) relaxed norms for issue of long-term bonds by banks for financing affordable housing. Internal Trade 7.41 The ` 11,47,274 crore trade and repair services sector with a share of 11.0 per cent in GDP, grew by 14.3 per cent in 2013-14. Trade is the major item in this category as the share of repair services in this category is just 6-7 per cent. As per the AT Kearney’s Global Retail Development Index (GRDI), India’s retail trade ranking slipped further to twentieth in 2014 from fourteenth in 2013. The retail sector was affected in 2013 by high consumer price inflation, currency fluctuations, and strict FDI policies. However, India remains an attractive long-term retail destination for several reasons, including its large population, 58.3 per cent of which is below 30 years and 31.1 per cent of which lives in urban areas with rising disposable incomes. Migration from traditional stores to modern retail continues, though the latter accounts for only 8 per cent of the total market. 7.42 India’s e-commerce market is expected to grow by more than 50 per cent in the next five years. Inventory management, logistics planning, and resource availability are important hurdles for online retail in India. Consumer safeguard being another concern for consumers of e-commerce, the government proposes including sufficient provisions in the ongoing amendment to the Consumer Protection Act 1986.

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Media and Entertainment Services 7.43 The Indian media and entertainment industry comprises various segments which include television, print, films, radio, music, animation, gaming and visual effects, and digital advertising. According to a report by FICCI-KPMG, the Indian media and entertainment industry grew by 11.8 per cent to ` 918 billion in 2013 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 14.2 per cent to reach ` 1786 billion by 2018. Digital advertising and gaming are projected to drive the growth of this sector in the coming years. With ` 18.4 billion inflows, this sector contributed 1.6 per cent of the total FDI inflows in India during April 2000November 2014. 7.44 With 161 million TV households, India is the world’s third largest TV market after China and the USA. There are about 826 satellite television channels, 86 teleports, 243 FM radio channels, and 179 community radio stations operating in India. India’s broadcasting distribution network comprises 6000 multi system operators (MSOs), around 60,000 local cable operators (LCOs), and 7 direct to home (DTH) operators. The Government has embarked on an ambitious exercise of digitizing its cable network in four phases leading to complete switch off of analog TV services by 31 December 2016. India also has a liberalized FDI regime for the broadcasting sector where 26 per cent FDI is allowed in content and 74 per cent in various carriage services like DTH, HITS (headend in the sky). 7.45 India is emerging as the new favourite of international studios, with 100 per cent FDI permitted in the film sector. Disney, Fox, Sony, and Warner Brothers have entered into coproduction and distribution deals with domestic production houses. India has co-production treaties with ten countries. During the year 2014-15 (till December 2014), the government has accorded permission for film shooting in India to twenty-one foreign production houses. 7.46 To sum up, the performance of the services sector in recent years has been reasonably good, despite the difficult international and domestic situation. However, the performance of different sectors varied.

Climate Change and Sustainable Development

08 CHAPTER

The year 2015 is likely to be momentous with the world set to witness new agreements on climate change and sustainable development. The global agreement on climate change under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change applicable to all countries must be ambitious, comprehensive, equitable, and balanced, taking into account the huge development needs of developing countries including access to financial resources and low carbon technological options. In India, landmark environmental measures introduced in recent years reflecting actions both at national and sub-national levels are being further supplemented by policies in the light of new scientific findings and current needs.

8.2 The course for international development and environmental policy agenda for the global community for the next fifteen years is being decided in the year 2015. The negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are expected to result in a global agreement by December 2015, applicable to all countries, to take action on climate change from 2020. Simultaneously, governments are due to agree on a new post 2015 development agenda including a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), replacing the Millennium Development Goals, which are coming to an end in 2015. 8.3 A major development attracting attention worldwide has been the Joint Announcement on Climate Change by the United States and China— the world’s two largest emitters—in November 2014. As per this announcement, the US intends to achieve an economy-wide target of reducing its emissions by 26 -28 per cent below its 2005 level in 2025 and to make best efforts to reduce its emissions by 28 per cent. China intends to achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide (CO2)

emissions around 2030 and to make best efforts to peak early and intends to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 per cent by 2030. This has great political significance in the run-up to the post 2015 climate change agreement. The announcement is expected to provide a boost to the renewable energy sector globally. 8.4 Domestically, several measures have been taken to address climate change. Most importantly, India’s national solar mission is being scaled up fivefold from 20,000 megawatts (MW) to 100,000 MW and the clean energy cess on coal has been doubled to `100/tonne in 2014.

CLIMATE CHANGE Recent Scientific Findings from IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 8.5 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical, and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to climate change. The IPCC in its recent report—

Climate Change and Sustainable Development

Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)—published in 2014 has observed that there has been an increasing trend in the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) since the advent of the industrial revolution, with about half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions during this period occurring in the last forty years.The period 19832012 is likely to have been the warmest thirtyyear period of the last 1400 years. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes have contributed a major portion of total GHG emissions during the period 1970 - 2010. 8.6 The change in the climate system is likely to have adverse impact on the economy, livelihoods, cropping pattern, and food security. According to the various projections by the IPCC, extreme heat events are likely to be longer and more intense in addition to changes in precipitation patterns.The change in climate could affect the production of wheat, rice, and maize in the tropical and temperate zones; have negative impact on health by exacerbating health problems that already exist especially in developing countries; and adversely impact productive activities like growing food and working outdoors.

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8.7 The ecological overshoot problem, i.e. the ecological footprint being larger than the biocapacity of the population, is an important issue in the global climate discourse. The ‘overshoot’can also be understood in terms of the carbon budget. The risk of climate change is largely a function of total cumulative GHGs in the atmosphere. IPCC AR5 has estimated that for temperature increase to remain below 2°C of pre-industrial levels the world can emit only about 2,900 Giga tonnes (Gt) of CO2 from all sources from the industrial revolution till 2100. Till 2011, the world has emitted 1,900 Gt of CO2, thus already consuming around two-thirds of this budget. This means that out of the budget of 2,900 Gt, only 1,000 Gt remains to be used between now and 2100. The World Resources Institute estimates that if emissions continue unabated, the remaining budget will last only 30 more years. 8.8 The key issue therefore for designing emission reduction commitment is how we should allocate this remaining sparse carbon budget between countries in a manner which is both fair and achievable. This certainly should involve an assessment of historic responsibility based on how

Source : Centre for Science and Environment and IPCC AR5.

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countries have contributed to cumulative emissions so far. India’s contribution to cumulative global CO2 (1850-2011) was a meagre 3 per cent as against 21 per cent by the USA and 18 per cent by the EU (Figure 8.1). The sustainability of the world economic system also needs to be analysed through the lens of social justice and equity. For developing countries, their future commitment will also be determined by what kind and level of financial, capacity-building, and other support is provided by developed countries that have contributed most to cumulative global GHG emissions so far. 8.9 There are multiple mitigation pathways that are likely to limit warming to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels. These pathways would require substantial emissions reduction over the next few decades and near zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived GHGs by the end of the century. Implementing such reductions poses substantial technological, economic, social, and institutional challenges. Global GHG Emissions from Major Sectors and Countries 8.10 Since 2000 GHG emissions have been growing in all sectors, except agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU). Of the 49 (±4.5) GtCO2eq (CO2 equivalent) emissions in 2010,

Source : IPCC, AR5.

35 per cent were released in the energy supply sector, 24 per cent in AFOLU, 21 per cent in industry, 14 per cent in transport, and 6.4 per cent in buildings (Figure 8.2). 8.11 There are substantial variations in total and per capita emissions of different countries. As per AR5 of IPCC, per capita GHG emissions in 2010 were highly unequal with median per capita emissions for the group of low-income countries (1.4 t CO2eq/cap) being 9 times lower than median per capita emissions of high income countries (13 t CO2eq/cap). In terms of absolute CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production in 2013, China, the USA, and EU hold the first three positions respectively with India a distant 4th (Figure 8.3). However, in terms of per capita CO2 emissions from the same sectors in 2013, countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa fall in the bottom 100 among 196 countries (Figure 8.4). India’s Progress on Climate Change National Action Plan on Climate Change 8.12 India was one of the early adopters of a national climate change plan. Launched way back in 2008, the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) outlines policies directed at mitigation and adaptation to combat climate change. India is also working on the voluntary goal

Climate Change and Sustainable Development

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Source : Trends in Global CO2 Emissions 2014 Report, European Commission Joint Research Centre Note : CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production.

of reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP (excluding emissions from agriculture) by 20-25 per cent by 2020 as compared to the base year of 2005. The recent United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emission Gap Report (2014) has recognized India as being one of the countries on track to achieve its voluntary pledges. India is also taking proactive steps in enhancing energy efficiency and expanding renewables to combat climate change. At the same time adaptation measures in agriculture, water resources, and urban areas remain its key priorities. 8.13 India is now revisiting National Missions under the NAPCC in the light of new scientific information (IPCC AR5) and technological advances; undertaking additional interventions in areas like GHG mitigation in power generation,

other renewable energy technology programmes, disaster management, protection of coastal areas, and the health sector; creating capacity at different levels of the government; exploring possibilities of new missions on wind energy, health, waste to energy, and coastal areas; and redesigning the National Water Mission and National Mission on Sustainable Agriculture. State Action Plans on Climate Change 8.14 Subsequent to the NAPCC, in 2009 all the state governments were requested to prepare State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCC). So far, 31 states have prepared and submitted SAPCC documents. The SAPCCs have both adaptation and mitigation components to address climate change impacts, though adaptation has been identified as the more important element. A

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combined budgetary requirement of around ` 11,33,692 crore has been estimated for implementation of the 31 SAPCCs. Progress in Expanding the Share of Renewable Energy in India 8.15 India’s total renewable power installed capacity as on 31 December 2014 has reached 33.8 GW. Wind energy continues to dominate this share accounting for 66 per cent of installed capacity, followed by biomass, small hydro power, and solar power. As per Census of India 2011, around 1.1 million households are using solar energy to meet their lighting needs and an almost similar number meets cooking energy needs from biogas plants. India’s renewable energy sector is driven primarily by the private sector. The government has been promoting private investment in renewable energy through an attractive mix of fiscal and financial incentives, in addition to preferential tariffs being provided at state level. These include capital/interest subsidy, accelerated depreciation, and nil/concessional excise and customs duties. The level of capital subsidy being provided depends on the renewable resources and region, and varies from about 10 per cent to 90 per cent of project costs. The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission launched in January 2010 seeks to establish India as a global leader in solar energy by creating policy conditions for its diffusion across the country. Installed capacity of Indian solar power in 2013-14 was 2647 MW. As per Bloomberg New Energy Finance/UNEP report, in 2013, there was a total investment of US$ 6 billion in renewable energy in India. Proposals for the next five years are likely to generate business opportunities of the order of US$ 160 billion. It offers very good opportunity for businesses to set and scale up industry, leapfrog technologies, and create volumes. Some of India’s major immediate plans on renewable energy include scaling up cumulative installed capacity to 170 GW that includes 100 GW of solar power by 2022 and establishing a National University for Renewable Energy.

Clean Energy Cess on Coal 8.16 One of the important instruments being proposed for dealing with climate change is the introduction of carbon taxes. However, very few countries in the world have introduced carbon taxes so far. India introduced a clean energy cess on coal in 2010. This cess on coal which feeds the National Clean Energy Fund (NCEF) has been increased from ` 50 to ` 100 per tonne in Budget 2014-15. Total collection so far (till 2014-15) under the Fund is ` 17,084.45 crore (Budget Estimates—BE) and 46 clean energy projects worth ` 16,511.43 crore have been recommended for funding out of the NCEF till September 2014 (Table 8.1). The scope of the NCEF has now been expanded to include funding in the area of clean environment initiatives. Table 8.1 : Projects Recommended for NCEF Funding Year

Number of Projects

Amount (` ` in crore)

2011-12

566.50

2012-13

2715.11

2013-14

1229.65

2014-15

12000.17

Total

16511.43

Progress in Adaptation Actions 8.17 India has also made progress in adaptation actions. The National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) is India’s National Implementing Entity (NIE) for the Adaptation Fund created under the UNFCCC. At present, NABARD is the only NIE in the Asia Pacific Region. In its capacity as NIE, NABARD has generated several feasible proposals on climate change adaptation, five of which, amounting to US$ 7.3 million, have been submitted to the Adaptation Fund. The Adaptation Fund Board has recently sanctioned the first set of two projects submitted by NABARD with an outlay of US$ 3.2 million for promoting climate resilient agriculture systems in West Bengal and enabling the fisheries sector in Andhra Pradesh.

Climate Change and Sustainable Development

8.18 Additionally, NABARD is implementing several development projects to promote sustainable development livelihood through Natural Resource Management, such as watershed development and sustainable livelihood for tribal communities. NABARD has sanctioned a pilot project of ` 21 crore on climate change adaptation in Maharashtra to develop knowledge, strategies, and approaches that will enable vulnerable communities to adapt to the impending impacts of climate change. Under NABARD Infrastructure Development Assistance, it is financing green investments in solar power generation and improvement of electricity distribution networks which includes India’s first 1MW canal-top solar power project in Gujarat. 8.19 Further, as a follow-up of its announcement in Budget 2014-15, a ‘National Adaptation Fund’ with an initial corpus of ` 100 crore has been set up to support adaptation actions to combat the challenges of climate change in sectors like agriculture, water, and forestry. Domestic Carbon Market Mechanisms 8.20 Simultaneously, there have been a number of actions on the domestic front to create carbon markets. An important one is the Perform, Achieve & Trade (PAT) scheme which is being implemented for the designated industries under the National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency. The activities under the PAT scheme provide opportunities for new markets as it devises costeffective energy efficient strategies for end-use demand-side management leading to ecological sustainability. The PAT scheme covers 478 plants (designated consumers) in eight energy-intensive industrial sectors accounting for one-third of total energy consumption. The target for reduction in average specific energy consumption under PAT is 4.05 per cent during PAT Cycle 1 (1 April 2012 to 31 March 2015). As a major initiative of the National Solar Mission under the NAPCC, renewable energy certificates (REC) seek to address the mismatch between availability of renewable energy sources and the requirement of the obligated entities to meet their renewable purchase obligations. The value of an REC is equivalent to 1 MW hour of electricity injected

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into the grid from renewable energy sources. As per the Renewable Energy Certificate Registry of India, a total of 16,58,593 solar RECs were issued till January 2015. International State of Negotiations: Twentieth Session of the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC 8.21 The just concluded twentieth session of the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 20) in December 2014 in Lima, Peru, was an important milestone as it came out with a ‘Lima Call for Climate Action’ after long deliberations and intense negotiations (Box 8.1). With less than a year left to conclude the deal in Paris later this year, nations are working hard towards finalizing the agreement by December 2015 at the COP 21 session in Paris. 8.22 India’s main concern in the negotiations was to protect its long term interests and emphasize the need for growth and development space to tackle the problem of eradicating poverty, providing energy access to all and address other developmental priorities. India’s stand in the negotiations was guided by the principle of Equity and Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) (Box 8.2). International Climate Finance Flows 8.23 The UNFCCC squarely places the responsibility of providing climate finance to the developing countries on the developed countries. For this purpose a financial mechanism for the provision of financial resources on a grant or concessional basis, including for the transfer of technology, has been defined in Article 11 of the Convention. 8.24 The Global Environment Facility (GEF) is one of the two operating entities under the financial mechanism as per Article 11. It funds projects in energy efficiency, renewable energy, sustainable urban transport, and sustainable management of land use, land-use change and forestry and climatesmart agriculture. Recently, thirty donor countries pledged US$ 4.43 billion for the GEF-6 cycle (July 2014 – June 2018). India has received an allocation of US$ 130.58 million under this, of

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Box 8.1 : Key Lima Outcomes The UNFCCC negotiations focused on the finalization of elements of the draft negotiating text for the 2015 Paris agreement, identification of information to be submitted by Parties under the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), and enhancement of pre 2020 actions. Some of the important outcomes of the Lima Conference are the following: • The Lima Conference has decided that the new agreement will be under the UNFCCC and will reflect the principle of CBDR in the light of different national circumstances. It also addresses all elements, i.e. mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology development and transfer, capacity building, and transparency of action and support in a balanced manner. • The draft text has to be finalized by May 2015 in order to be placed for consideration and adoption of Parties at COP 21. • Another key decision was that countries should not backslide from current pledges under the INDCs and their contribution has to be more than their current commitments. The final decision successfully ensured that countries can include adaptation, finance, technology development and transfer, capacity building, and transparency of action and support also in their INDCs, in addition to mitigation. There is also no ‘ex-ante assessment’ to be undergone. • Now countries have to submit quantifiable information on the reference point (base year), time frames, scope and planning process, assessments, etc. related to the INDCs. This will be published on the UNFCCC website and a Synthesis Report of the aggregate effect of the INDCs prepared by 1 November 2015. • It was decided to accelerate action on enhancing the pre-2020 actions like early ratification of the Kyoto Protocol second commitment period, revisiting of targets and conditionalities associated with it, and provision of finance, technology, and capacity building support by developed countries to developing countries. • On the issue of finance, developed countries have been invited to provide clarity on reaching the US$ 100 billion goal by 2020, by way of enhanced information and greater transparency and predictability for scaling up climate finance. On the Green Climate Fund (GCF), pledges amounting to US$ 10.2 billion for initial capitalization of the Fund have been acknowledged. It was further decided to urge contributors to confirm these pledges in the form of fully executed contribution agreements so that at least 50 per cent of pledges made till November 2014 are reflected as fully executed contribution agreements by 30 April 2015.

which US$ 87.88 million is for climate change mitigation focal area. Till date, India has accessed US$ 477.3 million of GEF grant of which US$ 284.2 million is for climate change mitigation projects and US$ 10 million is for climate change adaptation projects. The GEF also manages two separate adaptation-focused funds under the UNFCCC— the Least Developed Countries Fund and the Special Climate Change Fund— which mobilize funding specifically earmarked for activities related to adaptation. 8.25 The GCF is also an operating entity of the financial mechanism of the Convention set up in 2011. The GCF is expected to become the major channel of mobilizing a significant share of the US$ 100 billion climate finance from developed

to developing countries in the coming years, helping the latter in their efforts to combat climate change and adjust their development pathways to a more climate-friendly one. Significant progress has been made towards operationalizing the GCF. Some of the breakthrough decisions adopted include: 50:50 allocation for mitigation and adaptation over time; maximizing engagement with the private sector through a special Private Sector Facility of the Fund; and the intention of defining the Fund’s gender action plan soon. As of date, US$ 10.2 billion in grants has been pledged to the GCF. The GCF is currently structured into two themes— mitigation and adaptation and one modality which is the Private Sector Facility. With this, the GCF is now ready for business.

Climate Change and Sustainable Development

127

Box 8.2 : Climate Change Issues: India’s Stand India has been following action-oriented policies to bring rapid development to its people while purposefully addressing climate change. India has been one of the foremost advocates of long-term global cooperation in combating climate change in accordance with the principles and provisions of the UNFCCC. Climate change impacts being witnessed today are a result of the total accumulated greenhouse emissions for which the major responsibility lies with the developed nations. Moreover, despite the fast growth registered by some of the developing countries, a large proportion of people in these countries still live in extreme poverty. The Indian stance in the climate change negotiations has been guided by the principle of CBDR. India thus believes that the climate change agreement of 2015 should take into consideration a whole gamut of issues including adaptation, finance, technology development and transfer, capacity building, transparency of action and support in a balanced manner, and loss and damage in addition to mitigation. Mitigation: Historical responsibilities of developed countries and equity in access to global atmospheric resources should continue to be the basis of defining mitigation commitments. The 2015 agreement must ensure that the developing countries be given their fair share of carbon and development space. The contribution of developing countries to mitigation efforts is far greater than that of developed countries and could be further enhanced if developed countries effectively implement and significantly increase their commitments of providing finance, technology, and capacity building support to developing countries. Adaptation: Equal weightage has to be given to adaptation as it is essential for reducing vulnerabilities of communities to climate change. This assumes more importance in view of the fact that the developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change. However, both global action and finance flows have been biased in favour of mitigation. The developing countries are pushing hard to include adaptation in a comprehensive and balanced manner in the 2015 agreement. Finance: The responsibility of providing financial assistance to the developing countries lies with the developed countries and this has been clearly articulated in the UNFCCC. India together with other developing countries continue to urge the developed countries to honour their obligation to provide new, additional, and predictable financial support to developing countries in a measurable, reportable, and verifiable manner. In this context ambitious capitalization of the GCF assumes significance. Developed countries have been urged to provide clear timelines and pathways to reach the US$ 100 billion annual commitment made by them in 2010. Technology transfer: Technology forms a major component of any move towards combating climate change. The important issue in this regard is that while the developed countries are the frontrunners in clean technology, the developing countries do not possess either sufficient technical capability or the financial resources to develop clean technologies. Appropriate mechanisms for smooth transfer of technology from the developed to developing countries have to be agreed upon. The intellectual property rights price-tag should not come in the way of such technology transfer.

8.26 The GCF follows a ‘country-driven approach’, which envisages effective involvement of various stakeholders at all levels and also enables the developing countries to evolve their climate policy keeping in consideration their immediate development priorities like poverty reduction and improving standards of living for a large proportion of their population. The effectiveness with which a country is able to tap the resources from the GCF and use them effectively is dependent on how well the country’s government and its various institutions have prepared themselves to access the Fund. The first step is building the institutional capacity of the country. India has moved forward in this regard

by selecting the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change as India’s Nationally Designated Authority (NDA) for the GCF, which will recommend to the Board of the GCF funding proposals in the context of national climate strategies. The next step is to select competent NIEs which will be accredited by the GCF Board and will oversee the implementation of the project by the Executing Entities. Given the country-driven approach of the GCF, the onus also lies on the recipient countries to decide how to use the resources accessed from the GCF. This calls for prioritizing the sectors and projects that will yield maximum sustainable development benefits for India. Currently efforts are under way by the

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government to build India’s institutional capacity including the selection of NIEs and an overall framework for effectively accessing resources from the GCF. International Carbon Markets 8.27 India’s participation in the carbon market is a story of success. India has been proactive in its approach to the carbon market and represents a significant component of the global market of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) established under the Kyoto Protocol. As on 1 December 2014, 1541 of the total 7589 projects registered by the CDM Executive Board are from India. This so far is the second highest in the world with China leading with 3763 registered projects. The total certified emission reductions (CER) issued so far are 1.52 billion units, and CERs issued to Indian projects are 191 million units (13.27 per cent). Also, as on 31 December 2014, the National CDM Authority in India has accorded approval to 2941 projects facilitating an investment of more than ` 5,79,306 crore in the country. These projects are in the sectors of energy efficiency, fuel switching, industrial processes, municipal solid waste, renewable energy, and forestry. 8.28 In the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2013-2020), the number of CDM projects has come down drastically. In 2012, there were 3227 projects registered with the UNFCCC and in 2013 only 307 projects were registered under the CDM. Interestingly, in 2013 India has registered 115 projects, which is the highest number by any country. In 2014, India registered 56 projects with the UNFCCC. 8.29 Although international dialogue continues to intensify focus on a robust and meaningful international climate change agreement in 2015, the lack of mitigation ambition in the pre-2020 period continued to slow down the momentum in the international market-based mechanisms. In fact, Parties participating in the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol represent only 12 per cent of global emissions. Some major players pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol, which has further

suppressed the limited demand of Kyoto credits. As per a World Bank Group report, the current demand is estimated to be around 1120-1230 megatons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2 e), as against a supply of 3500-5400 MtCO2e for 2014-2020, around three to five times the expected demand. 8.30 Proposals to augment the demand for carbon credits and a price stabilization mechanism are being negotiated. This includes proposals to create new market mechanisms within and beyond the Kyoto Protocol within an appropriate framework. While the CDM will continue to function during the period from 2013 to 2020, the manner in which it will get subsumed within these new mechanisms for an effective carbon market is to be seen (Box 8.3).

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 8.31 Planetary boundaries in terms of sustainable development can be understood in terms of ecological footprint which is suggestive of the pressure human activities put on ecosystems, which when compared to bio capacity (a measure of the capacity of ecosystems to produce useful biological materials and to absorb waste materials generated by humans) tells us if we are running in surplus or deficit. Data shows that the world is living in a situation of ecological overshoot. In 2010, the global ecological footprint was 18.1 billion global hectares (gha), or 2.6 gha per capita, and the earth’s total bio capacity was 12 billion gha, or 1.7 gha per capita, as per the Living Planet Report 2014. Bio capacity is not spread evenly around the world. Unfortunately the low-income countries have the smallest footprint but suffer the greatest ecosystem losses. Moderate UN scenarios suggest that if current population and consumption trends continue, by the 2030s we will need the equivalent of two earths to support us. 8.32 As per a McKinsey report, India is at the threshold of an urban flare-up. The population of Indian cities will increase from 340 million in 2008 to 590 million by 2030. In the 2030s India’s largest cities will be bigger than many major countries. As population increases, demand for every key service will increase five to sevenfold. These trends,

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Box 8.3 : CDM and the Future of Carbon Markets The CDM, a type of carbon market created multilaterally under the UNFCCC, has proved to be one of the most effective mitigation instruments. Though lack of mitigation ambition in the pre-2020 period has slowed down its momentum, efforts to harness the full potential of the CDM, the world’s largest global carbon market, are picking up. Many developing countries including India have greatly benefited from and contributed to the emission reduction initiative through the CDM. While countries look for a new market mechanism, there are strong reasons to build on the powerful CDM tool for the reasons given in Table 1. The CDM Board has also agreed to a budget that will allow CDM operations to continue upto 2020. Table 1 : CDM-related facts Emissions reduced or avoided 7700 + projects and programme of activities registered in less than 10 years 1 US$ of public money invested in the CDM on average leverages US$ 130 billion investment in GHG-reducing activities Money saved by EU Emissions Trading Scheme installations from 2008 to 2012 through CER purchased 155 countries involved in the CDM

1.5 Gt of CO2eq

Average of over 2 projects per day

10 US$ in private-sector investment Total annual ODA flow in 2011

= =

US$ 6 - 28 billion Over three-fourths of the countries in the world

Source: UNFCCC; State and Trends on Carbon Pricing, World Bank 2014.

Apart from the CDM, the reach of carbon pricing across the globe is steadily increasing. As per a World Bank Group report, a total of eight new carbon markets opened their doors in 2013 alone. With these new instruments, the world’s emissions trading schemes are worth about US$30 billion.With a global climate deal set to be finalized in 2015 and substantial incremental finance required to tackle the climate problem, carbon markets and pricing are expected to play a key role in controlling emissions. New approaches to market-based mechanisms are being developed to help fast-track their deployment and maximize investment in low carbon technologies. These are being termed as reformed CDM, or New Market Mechanisms. These developments are likely to help India, as till now limited options were available to Indian CDM project developers who had to sell at prevailing prices. With Indian-registered projects expected to generate substantial CERs by 2020, Indian CER holders are now looking forward to selling their CERs once the carbon markets pick up.

combined with the current challenges of poverty eradication, food and energy security, urban waste management, and water scarcity, will put further pressure on our limited resources which will add to greater energy needs and lead to increase in emissions if further decoupling doesn’t take place. At the same time, hidden in this challenge are great opportunities. Unlike many countries, India has a young population and therefore can reap the fruits of its demographic dividend. With more than half of the India of 2030 yet to be built, we have an opportunity to avoid excessive dependence on fossil fuel-based energy systems and carbon lockins that many industrialized countries face today. A conscious policy framework which takes into account both development needs and environmental considerations could help in turning the challenges into opportunities.

8.33 There has been a growing political drive towards the post 2015 development agenda due for agreement in September 2015. In this direction, the thirty-member Open Working Group mandated by the Outcome Document—“The Future We Want”—of the UN Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) held in June 2012 at Rio came out with a set of 17 SDGs in July 2014 (Box 8.4). The SDGs cover a broad range of sustainable development issues and also focus on means of implementation as one of the overarching goals to achieve the SDGs. These are expected to be integrated into the UN’s post-2015 Development Agenda. At present, the post-2015 agenda and SDG processes are moving rapidly towards their conclusion this year.

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Box 8.4 : SDGs 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture 3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages 4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote life-long learning opportunities for all 5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls 6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment, and decent work for all 9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and foster innovation 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas, and marine resources for sustainable development 15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all, and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels 17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development.

8.34 On the domestic front, India has been working towards environmental safety without compromising on the goal of rapid economic growth. Accordingly, India’s development plans lay a balanced emphasis on economic development

and the environment. The country has witnessed the introduction of landmark environmental measures for conservation of rivers, improvement of urban air quality, enhanced forestation, significant increase in installed capacity of renewable energy technologies, shift towards public transport, and enhancing rural and urban infrastructure. Recent key initiatives include: the Swachh Bharat Mission, Clean Ganga Plan, scaling up of the National Solar Mission fivefold from 20,000 MW to 1,00,000 MWwith an additional investment requirement of US$ 100 billion, development of 100 smart cities with integrated policies for sustainable development, and preparations for developing a National Air Quality Index and a National Air Quality Scheme. 8.35 To sum up, political awareness on the issue of climate change and sustainable development both in the international arena and on the domestic front has risen considerably. Many developing countries including India have made considerable progress in tackling climate change issues. The year 2015 is likely to witness a series of events in the run up to the Paris agreement. As we put our acts together towards a post-2015 agreement on climate change, it is absolutely critical to ensure that the new agreement is comprehensive, balanced, equitable, and pragmatic. It should address the genuine requirements of developing countries like India by providing them equitable carbon and development space to achieve sustainable development and eradicate poverty. To achieve this, adherence to the principles and provisions of the UNFCCC is critical. Importantly, global climate action rests heavily on the means of implementation, especially finance and technology, and the agreement should adequately address this. As India’s Prime Minister Shri NarendraModi said in the UN General Assembly in September 2014, “We should be honest in shouldering our responsibilities in meeting the challenges. The world community has agreed on a beautiful balance of collective action—common but differentiated responsibilities. That should form the basis of continued action.”

Social Infrastructure, Employment, and Human Development

09 CHAPTER

Growth with equity has been the focus of Indian economic policy since the 1960s. By 2020, India is projected to be the youngest nation in the world in terms of size. While this ‘youth bulge’ provides India great opportunities, it also poses challenges. These young people need to be healthy, suitably educated, and appropriately skilled to contribute optimally to the economy. Despite global shocks, India has not compromised on expenditures on welfare activities, especially for the vulnerable population. The success of programmes and policies of the government lies in the strength of institutional structures with strong public delivery systems as well as in the attitudes and mindset of the people. To ensure conversion of outlays into outcomes the role of Panchayati Raj institutions is crucial. Though significant outcomes have been achieved in the areas of poverty reduction, health, and education, more remains to be done. Government, along with civil society, media, and other stakeholders, must work towards changing the patriarchal mindset of society and empowering women to realize their untapped potential and fulfil their aspirations.

9.2 As per provisional results of Census 2011, 2001-11 is the first decade in independent India where in the population momentum coupled with declining fertility has dampened the pace of net additions to population. Thus, the net addition (between 2001-2011) is less than that of the pervious decade by 0.86 million. At present a little more than one out of every six persons in the world is an Indian. As per Sample Registration System (SRS) (2013) data, there has been a gradual decline in the share of population in the age group 0-14 from 41.2 to 38.1 per cent during 1971 to 1981 and from 36.3 to 28.4 per cent during 1991 to 2013. On the other hand, the proportion of economically active population (15-59 years) or, India’s ‘demographic dividend’, has increased from 53.4 to 56.3 per cent during 1971 to 1981 and from 57.7 to 63.3 per cent during 1991 to

2013. On account of better education, health facilities, and increase in life expectancy, the percentage of elderly (60+) has gone up from 5.3 to 5.7 per cent and 6.0 to 8.3 per cent respectively in the same two periods. 9.3 The growth rate of the labour force will continue to be higher than that of the population until 2021. According to an Indian Labour Report (Time Lease, 2007), 300 million youth will enter the labour force by 2025, and 25 per cent of the world’s workers in the next three years will be Indians. Population projections indicate that in 2020 the average age of India’s population will be the lowest in the world—around 29 years compared to 37 years in China and the United States of America, 45 years in West Europe, and 48 years in Japan. Consequently, while the global economy is expected to witness a shortage of

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young population of around 56 million by 2020, India will be the only country with a youth surplus of 47 million (Report on Education, Skill Development and Labour Force (2013-14) Volume III, Labour Bureau, 2014). 9.4 The main issue to address then is not just providing employment but increasing the employability of the labour force in India. Employability is contingent upon knowledge and skills developed through quality education and training. Thus any solution to the problem lies in a well-designed education and training regime that sets out to meet these objectives. The problem of low employability levels owing to poor quality of education is accentuated by the fact that fewer students opt for higher education.

EDUCATIONAL CHALLENGES 9.5 While only 73 per cent literacy has been achieved as per Census 2011, there has been marked improvement in female literacy. Male literacy at 80.9 per cent is still higher than female literacy at 64.6 per cent but the latter has increased by 10.9 percentage points compared to 5.6 percentage points for the former. The Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education (RTE) Act 2009 was enacted by the centre to increase the quality as well as accessibility of elementary education in India in April 2010. Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA) is the designated scheme for implementation of the RTE Act. The framework of the SSA has been revised to include reimbursement for expenditure incurred for at least 25 per cent admissions of children belonging to disadvantaged and weaker sections in private unaided schools from the academic year 201415. Between 2007-08 and 2013-14, according to the DISE (District Information System for Education), total enrolment in primary schools increased from 134 million to 137 million in 201112 and then declined to 132 million in 2013-14 while upper primary enrolment grew from 51 million to about 67 million. This is in line with the changing demographic age structure. India has achieved near universal enrolment and enhanced

hard and soft infrastructure (schools, teachers, and academic support staff). 9.6 However, the overall standard of education is well below global standards: that PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) 2009+ results ranked Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh 72 and 73 out of 74 participants, higher only than Kyrgyzstan, exposes the gaps in our education system. PISA, which measures the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds with questions designed to assess their problem-solving capabilities, rates these two states at the bottom, with the scores in mathematics and science falling way behind the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) average. Shanghai-China tops the rankings followed by Singapore, while the Russian Federation is ranked at thirty-eighth position. “Countries where students near the end of compulsory schooling perform at high levels tend to maintain their lead after these students transition from school into young adulthood…There is considerable scope for postsecondary education and training systems, as well as workplaces, to intervene to improve the proficiency of young people who leave school with poor literacy and numeracy skills.” Clearly, the policy prescription lies in shifting attention away from inputs to outcomes and focusing on building quality education and skill development infrastructure (Box: 9.1). India did not participate in PISA 2012. 9.7 ASER (Annual Status of Education Report) findings have been reporting low levels of learning amongst the 5 to 16 age group in rural India since 2005. The worrying fact is that these are floorlevel tests (basic 2-digit carry-forward subtraction and division skills), without which one cannot progress in the school system. 9.8 With the changing demography and declining child population, the inadequacy of human capital at the base of the pyramid leading to a huge backlog in basic skills could become a big impediment in India’s growth. The Padhe Bharat Badhe Bharat initiative to create a base for reading, writing, and math fluency is a good step. However,

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Box 9.1 : School Education Outcomes : Critical Inputs for tapping the Demographic Dividend i. The single most significant ASER finding is that learning levels across the country, whether in public or private school, have not improved (Figure 9.1). ii. Another important finding is regarding school enrolment—from only 16 per cent children enrolled in private schools in 2005, enrolment has gone up to nearly 30 per cent. Present trends indicate that this number will increase to 50 per cent by the end of the current decade. During 2007-08 and 2013-14, enrolment in government schools (both primary and upper primary) declined by about 11.7 million, from 133.7 million to 121 million, while enrolment in private schools increased by 27 million, from 51 million to 78 million. It is a moot point whether the poor learning levels in government schools have contributed to this. Paradoxically this trend is observed in rural areas, which receive funding under the SSA and other programmes. iii. Some highlights of the survey of rural children conducted in 16,497 villages in 557 districts (569,229 children surveyed), are listed below: • Marginal improvement in basic reading levels: The percentage of children in Standard V who are able to read a Standard II-level text increased from 47.0 per cent in 2013 to 48.1 per cent in 2014. • Decline in arithmetic levels: The percentage of Standard III children able to solve simple two-digit subtraction problems fell from 26.1 per cent in 2013 to 25.3 per cent in 2014. The percentage of children in Standard II who cannot recognize numbers up to 9 has increased over time, from 11.3 per cent in 2009 to 19.5 per cent in 2014. • Better provision of girls toilets: The proportion of schools without toilets (girls + boys) declined from 7.2 per cent in 2013 to 6.3 per cent in 2014. The proportion of separate girls toilets (unlocked and useable) in schools has improved from 32.9 per cent in 2010 to 53.3 per cent in 2013 and further to 55.7 per cent in 2014. • Increase in libraries in schools: The proportion of schools without libraries has declined only one percentage point from 22.9 per cent during 2013 to 21.9 per cent during 2014. • Compliance on pupil-teacher ratio: There has been a consistent rise in the proportion of schools complying with RTE norms on pupil-teacher ratio, from 45.3 per cent in 2013 to 49.3 per cent in 2014. • Improvement in drinking water facility: The proportion of schools with no provision for drinking water declined from 17.0 per cent in 2010 to 15.2 per cent in 2013 and further to 13.9 per cent in 2014 but the proportion of schools with useable drinking water facility improved only marginally from 73.8 per cent in 2013 to 75.6 per cent in 2014. • Stagnant enrolment in rural India: Over one year the enrolment of 6-14-year old children in rural India remained dormant at 96.8 per cent, with the proportion not enrolled also unchanged at 3.3 per cent. • Rising private school enrolment: Private school enrolment of 6-14-year olds has risen marginally from 29.0 per cent in 2013 to 30.8 per cent in 2014. Among the major States which have higher private enrolment are Kerala followed by Haryana, UP, Punjab, and Rajasthan. • Decline in classroom-teacher ratio (CTR): The steady decline in the percentage of schools meeting the RTE norm for CTR continued; from 73.8 per cent in 2013 the ratio further declined to 72.8 per cent in 2014. • Decline in attendance: Children’s attendance in both primary and upper primary schools shows a steady downward trend. In 2009, attendance was at 74.3 per cent in primary schools and 77 per cent in upper primary schools as compared to 71.4 per cent and 71.1 per cent respectively in 2014. • Same classroom for different classes: In 2014, Standard II students in about 63 per cent of schools and Standard IV students in about 57 per cent of schools were reported to be sitting with one or more other classes; the percentages have been increasing over the years. Source: Annual Status of Education Report (Rural) 2014 – Provisional Results

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for it to be fruitful, it is critical that the local administration is fully involved and sensitized. 9.9 While the RTE Act and the Juvenile Justice Act 2000 were promulgated to bring children into education rather than employment, they have allowed youth in the 15-18 age-group to slip through the cracks. India has about 100 million young people who fall in this category. Since there are educational and age requirements for entry into most vocational skilling programmes, and job placements are not possible before age 18, the vast majority of this population could land up in the unorganized sector. There is need for research into the type of knowledge or skills required to address the opportunity gaps and to improve productive capacity in the unorganized sector. 9.10 Concurrently, to build capacity in secondary schools on par with expanded primary enrolments, several schemes like the Mid-Day Meal (MDM) scheme, Rashtriya Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyan (RMSA), Model School Scheme (MSS), and Saakshar Bharat (SB)/ Adult Education have also been implemented. The focus of SB is female literacy. Inter alia, the lack of trained teachers compounds the problem. To strengthen the cadre of teacher educators by providing early career choice to prospective teachers and to fill the vacancies in teacher education institutions, a new four-year integrated programme, i.e. BA/BEd. and BSc./BEd. has been introduced. 9.11 The Indian higher education system is one of the largest in the world in terms of the number of colleges and universities. From 350 universities and 16,982 colleges in 2005-06, the numbers have gone up to 713 universities, 36,739 colleges, and 11,343 diploma-level institutions in 2013-14. There is need to match the supply with demand and to dovetail education policy to employment opportunities. Therefore, higher education needs to be futuristic and envision areas that will generate future employment opportunities and accordingly offer suitable courses for students. The gross enrolment ratio (GER) in higher education has nearly doubled from around 11.6 per cent in 200506 to 21.1 per cent in 2012-13 (Provisional), with

29.6 million students enrolled in 2012-13 as compared to 14.3 million in 2005-06. However, the lower penetration into higher levels of education leads to higher dropouts, especially among the secondary and upper primary students, consequently to accumulation of less educated and less skilled job seekers at the bottom of the pyramid. The percentage educated also falls progressively with higher levels of education.

EMPLOYMENT MATTERS Skilling the Youth 9.12 There is a dual challenge here of developing skills on the one hand and using skills on the other since skills that are not used are lost. As per the Labour Bureau Report 2014, the current size of India’s formally skilled workforce is small, approximately 2 per cent. This number contrasts poorly with smaller countries like South Korea and Japan that report figures of 96 and 80 per cent respectively. At all-India level around 6.8 per cent persons aged 15 years and above are reported to have received/ be receiving vocational training. 9.13 As per studies conducted by National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC) for the period between 2013 and 2022, there is an incremental requirement of 120 million skilled people in the non-farm sector. The current capacity for skilling is grossly inadequate and needs to be speedily scaled up to meet immediate skill needs of the country. The poor skill levels among India’s workforce are attributed to dearth of a formal vocational education framework, with wide variation in quality, high school dropout rates, inadequate skills training capacity, negative perception towards skilling, and lack of ‘industryready’ skills even in professional courses (Labour Bureau Report 2014). Some recent initiatives that aim to enhance access, equality, quality, innovation, etc. in the area of higher and vocational education are the Rashtriya Uchchatar Shiksha Abhiyan (RUSA), Technical Education Quality Improvement Programme (TEQIP), and National Skill Qualification Framework (NSQF).

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9.14 A dedicated Department of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship has been created under the Ministry of Skill Development, Entrepreneurship, Youth Affairs and Sports to accord focused attention in this area. In addition, the skilling programme for rural youth has been refocused and reprioritized to build the capacity of poor rural youth to address domestic and global skill requirements. The Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Grameen Koushalya Yojana (DDU-GKY) is a placement-linked skill development scheme for poor rural youth. A total of 51,956 candidates have been skilled under the DDU-GKY, of which 28,995 have been placed till November during 2014-15. 9.15 Other new programmes that aim at bringing minorities into mainstream development include Nai Manzil for education and skill development of dropouts; USTTAD (Upgrading Skills and Training in Traditional Arts/Crafts for Development) to conserve traditional arts/crafts and build capacity of traditional artisans and craftsmen belonging to minority communities; Nai Roshni, a leadership training programme for women; and MANAS for upgrading entrepreneurial skills of minority youths. Sluggish employment growth 9.16 A cause for concern is the deceleration in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of employment during 2004-05 to 2011-12 to 0.5 per cent from 2.8 per cent during 1999-2000 to 2004-05 as against CAGRs of 2.9 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively in the labour force for the same periods. As per the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) data during 1999-2000 to 2004-05, employment on usual status (US) basis increased by 59.9 million persons from 398.0 million to 457.9 million as against the increase in labour force by 62.0 million persons from 407.0 million to 469.0 million. After a period of slow progress during 2004-05 to 2009-10, employment generation picked up during 2009-10 to 201112, adding 13.9 million persons to the workforce, but not keeping pace with the increase in labour force (14.9 million persons) (Table 9.1). Based on current daily status (CDS), CAGR in

Table 9.1 : Employment and Unemployment Scenario in India Method

19992000

200405

200910

201112

Persons in the labour force (in millions) US CDS

407.0 363.3

469.0 417.2

468.8 428.9

483.7 440.4

Persons and person days employed (in millions) US CDS

398.0 336.9

457.9 382.8

459.0 400.8

472.9 415.7

Unemployment rate (in per cent) US CDS

2.2 7.3

2.3 8.2

2.0 6.6

2.2 5.6

Source : Various survey rounds of the NSSO on employment and unemployment in India. Note :

US (principal + subsidiary) measures employment in persons, CDS measures employment in person days.

employment was 1.2 per cent and 2.6 per cent against 2.8 per cent and 0.8 per cent in the labour force respectively for the same periods. 9.17 There have also been structural changes: for the first time, the share of the primary sector in total employment has dipped below the halfway mark (declined from 58.5 per cent in 2004-05 to 48.9 per cent in 2011-12), while employment in the secondary and tertiary sectors increased to 24.3 per cent and 26.8 per cent respectively in 2011-12 from 18.1 per cent and 23.4 per cent respectively in 2004-05. Self-employment continues to dominate, with a 52.2 per cent share in total employment. What is critical is the significant share of workers engaged in low-incomegenerating activities. 9.18 There are other issues of concern like poor employment growth in rural areas, particularly among females. Though employment of rural males is slightly better than that of females, long-term trends indicate a low and stagnant growth. Such trends call for diversification of livelihood in rural areas from agriculture to non-agriculture activities. In order to improve generation of productive employment under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), the Intensive and Participatory Planning Exercise (IPPE) has been initiated to prepare the labour

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budget for financial year 2015-16 in selected 2500 backward blocks using participatory rural appraisal technique. Emphasis has been laid on agriculture and allied activities to ensure that at least 60 per cent of the works in a district in terms of cost is for creation of productive assets linked to agriculture and allied activities through development of land, water, and trees. 9.19 A major impediment to the pace of quality employment generation in India is the small share of manufacturing in total employment. However data from the sixty-eighth NSSO round (201112) indicates a revival in employment growth in manufacturing from 11 per cent in 2009-10 to 12.6 per cent in 2011-12. This is significant given that the National Manufacturing Policy 2011 has set a Box 9.2 : Quarterly Survey Report on Employment in India The twenty-second Quarterly Quick Employment Survey for the period April-June 2014 was conducted in the month of July 2014. A total of 2200 sample units were covered for the quarter ending June 2014. Comparing the result of last four surveys over the period June 2013 to June 2014 in the eight selected sectors, employment has increased by about 0.4 million (Figure 9.2). At overall level, employment increased by 182,000 (close to 0.2 million) during the quarter ended June 2014 over the quarter ended March 2014. At industry level, the highest jump in employment is observed in the textile including apparel sector, where employment has increased by 69,000 during June 2014 over March 2014, followed by 51,000 in IT/BPOs, 47,000 in metals, 7000 each in leather and gems & jewellery and 1000 in the automobiles sector.

Source : Labour Bureau.

target of creating 100 million jobs by 2022. Promoting growth of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME) is critical from the perspective of job creation which has been recognized as a prime mover of the development agenda in India. Although total informal employment increased by 9.5 million to 435.7 million between 2004-05 and 2011-12, it is significant that informal unorganizedsector employment declined by 5.8 million to 390.9 million, leading to an increase in informal organizedsector employment by 15.2 million. Consequently the share of unorganized labour has declined from 87 per cent to 82.7 per cent (Table 9.2). Table 9.2 : Share of Formal-Informal Employment across Organized â&#x20AC;&#x201C;Unorganized Sectors in 2011-12 and 2004-05 (in per cent) Organized

Unorganized

Total

Formal

45.4 (52)

0.4 (0.3)

8.1 (7.3)

Informal

54.6 (48)

99.6 (99.7)

91.9 (92.7)

Total

17.3 (13)

82.7 (87)

100

Source : Niti Aayog. Note : Population projected for year 2004-05 and 2011-12 using decadal population growth rate between Census 2001 and 2011. Figures in brackets pertain to 2004-05

9.20 NSSO rounds are quinquennial and therefore information on the employment/ unemployment situation in the country is available only after a gap of five years. To make available data in the interregnum, the Labour Bureau conducts household employment-unemployment surveys on annual basis and has also been bringing out quarterly survey reports on the effects of the economic slowdown on employment in select sectors in India since 2009. The results of the latest quarterly summary on employment, July 2014 (Box 9.2), indicate an increase in employment by 3.5 million since the first survey. 9.21 The US unemployment rate is generally regarded as the measure of chronic open unemployment during the reference year; while the CDS is considered a comprehensive measure of unemployment, including both chronic and invisible unemployment. Thus, while chronic open unemployment rate in India hovers around a low

Social Infrastructure, Employment, and Human Development

of 2 per cent, it is significant in absolute terms. The number of unemployed people (under US) declined from 11.3 million during 2004-05 to 9.8 million in 2009-10 but again increased to 10.8 million in 2011-12. However, based on the CDS the number of unemployed person days declined from 34.3 million in 2004-05 to 28.0 million in 2009-10 and further to 24.7 million in 2011-12. Thus there has been a significant reduction in chronic and invisible unemployment from 8.2 per

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cent in 2004-05 to 5.6 per cent in 2011-12 (Table 9.1). Despite only a marginal growth in employment between 2009-10 and 2011-12, the reason for the decline in unemployment levels could be that an increasing proportion of the young population opts for education rather than participating in the labour market. This is reflected in the rise in enrolment growth in higher education from 4.9 million in 1990-91 to 29.6 million in 2012-13 (Provisional).

Box 9.3 : Labour reform measures (1) The Apprentice Act 1961 was amended on 18.12.2014 to make it more responsive to industry and youth. The Apprentice Protsahan Yojana was also launched to support MSMEs in the manufacturing sector in engaging apprentices. Government is also working affirmatively to bring a single uniform law for the MSME sector to ensure operational efficiency and improve productivity while ensuring job creation on a large scale. (2) A unified labour portal scheme called ShramSuvidha Portal has been launched for timely redressal of grievances and for creating a conducive environment for industrial development. Its main features are: (i) Unique Labour Identification Number (LIN) allotted to around 0.7 million units facilitating online registration; (ii) filing of selfcertified, simplified single online return instead of 16 separate returns by industry; (iii) transparent labour inspection scheme via computerized system as per risk-based criteria and uploading of inspection reports within 72 hours by labour inspectors. (3) Under Employees’ State Insurance Corporation (ESIC) Project Panchdeep: Digitization of internal and external processes to ensure efficiency in operations, especially services to employers and insured persons. The portal enables employers to file monthly contributions, generate temporary identity cards and create monthly contribution challans online, issue of pehchan card for insured persons for fast and convenient delivery of services. Through the IP Portal, insured persons can check contributions paid/payable by employers, family details, entitlement to various benefits, and status of claims. Integration of its services will promote ease of business and curb transaction costs. (4) Under Employees Provident Fund (EPF): Digitization of complete database of 42.3 million EPF subscribers and allotment of universal account number (UAN) to each member, which facilitates portability of member accounts. UAN is being seeded with bank account, Aadhar Card and other KYC details to promote financial inclusion. Direct access to EPF accounts will enable members to access and consolidate previous accounts. Online pensioners can view their account and disbursement details online. The statutory wage ceiling under the Employees Provident Fund and Miscellaneous Provisions (EPF&MP) Act was enhanced to Rs. 15000 per month from 01.09.2014. A minimum pension of Rs.1000 has been introduced for pensioners under the Employees’ Pension Scheme 1995 w.e.f 01.09.2014. (5) For Unorganized Workers: The Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY) is a scheme under the Unorganized Workers’ Social Security Act 2008. It is a smart card-based cashless health insurance scheme, including maternity benefit, which provides a cover of Rs 30,000 per family per annum on a family floater basis to below poverty line (BPL) families in the unorganized sector. It is proposed to extend the RSBY to all unorganized workers in a phased manner. (6) A National Council for Vocational Training-Management Information System (NCVT-MIS) portal has been developed for streamlining the functioning of Industrial Training Institutes (ITI), Apprenticeship Scheme, and assessment/certification of all NCVT training courses. (7) The National Career Service(NCS) is being implemented as a mission mode project to transform the National Employment Service and provide various job-related services such as online registration of job seekers and job vacancies, career counselling, vocational guidance, and information on skills development courses, internships, and apprenticeship. Source : Ministry of Labour and Employment.

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Labour Reforms

TOWARDS A HEALTHY INDIA

9.22 Significant improvement in industrial harmony in India is evident from the fact that mandays lost on account of strikes and lockout have been steadily declining: from 17.6 million in 2009 to 14.46 million in 2011, and further to 3.65 million (Provisional) during 2013 and 1.79 million (Provisional) from January 2014 to 9 December 2014.

9.24 It is noteworthy that India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has been steadily declining and is now at 2.3; while state-wise disparities exist, a declining trend is recorded across states, explaining the declining growth rate of population. Figure 9.3 gives the comparative trends in TFR across BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). India is set to reach the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDG) with respect to maternal and child survival. The MDG for maternal mortality ratio (MMR) is 140 per 100,000 live births, while India had achieved 178 by 2010-12 and is estimated to reach 141 by 2015. The under5 mortality rate (U5MR) MDG is 42, while India has an U5MR of 52 and is expected to reach 42 by 2015. This is particularly creditable as in 1990 India’s MMR and U5MR were 47 per cent and 40 per cent above the international average respectively. However, significant effort is required to improve the rate of decline of still-births and neonatal mortality, which have been lower/ stagnant in some states. While overall death rates have been

9.23 The multiplicity of labour laws and difficulty in complying with them has always been cited as an impediment to industrial development in India. In a major initiative for ensuring compliance and promoting ease of doing business, the government has initiated a number of labour reform measures (Box 9.3). Thus amendments have been proposed to labour laws to align them with the demands of a changing labour market. Individually, states like Rajasthan have also introduced major reforms in three labour legislations: the Industrial Disputes Act, Factories Act, and Contract Labour Act.

Source : World Fertility Data 2012, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, Fertility and Family Planning Section; Census of India 2011. Note :

The reference year for the latest data varies – it is 2006 for South Africa, 2008 for Brazil and China, 2010 for the Russian Federation, and 2011 for India taken from Census data.

Social Infrastructure, Employment, and Human Development

declining, owing to improvement in health accessibility and facilities, SRS (2013) reports that a significant 30 per cent of all deaths occur in the age group 0-4 years; the percentages are higher for girl children in both rural and urban areas. 9.25 A direct relationship exists between water, sanitation, health, nutrition, and human well- being. Consumption of contaminated drinking water, improper disposal of human excreta, lack of personal and food hygiene, and improper disposal of solid and liquid waste are major causes of diseases in developing countries like India. The Swachh Bharat Mission (Gramin) launched on 2 October 2014 aims at attaining an open defecation free (ODF) India by 2 October 2019, by providing access to toilet facilities to all rural households and initiating Solid and Liquid Waste Management activities in all gram panchayats to promote cleanliness. Box 9.4 provides examples of good practices that have replication potential. Together with capacity building efforts by multiple agencies including Panchayati Raj institutions (PRIs), fieldlevel implementers, organizations of high repute identified as key resource centres (KRCs), selfhelp groups, women’s groups, convergence with other state departments like Health, Women & Child Development, and Panchayati Raj, provision has been made for incentivizing accredited social health activists (ASHAs) and anganwadi workers to promote sanitation. Guidelines are also in place to involve corporates in the sanitation sector through corporate social responsibility. 9.26 In order to improve the availability of drinking water in rural areas, 20,000 solar power based water supply schemes have been approved under the National Rural Drinking Water Programme (NRDWP) across all the states for their habitations located in far-flung / hilly areas or where availability of electricity is a constraint. 9.27 Mission Indradhanush was launched on 25 December 2014 with the aim of covering all those children who are either unvaccinated or are partially vaccinated against seven vaccine-preventable diseases which include diphtheria, whooping cough, tetanus, polio, tuberculosis, measles, and

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Box 9.4 : Examples of Good Practices Mundla Village of Icchawar Block in Sehore district – 100 per cent sanitized village Before the launch of the Global Water, Sanitation and Hygiene for All (WASH) campaign in Mundla village on in February 2014, there were four functional toilets in the village. As of 2 October 2014, the village has been declared an ODF village. The efforts of villagers have converted it into a hygienic and 100 per cent sanitized village. Asia’s Cleanest Village Mawlynnong in Meghalaya is a model that showcases how collective effort can help a village find a place on the tourism map. The village has 80 households, of which 29 are below poverty line (BPL). Being awarded the Asia’s Cleanest Village award has resulted in an increase in the number of tourists to this village. The villagers have also constructed two tree houses with eco-friendly materials such as bamboo, which provide a magnificent bird’s-eye view of the beautiful and clean village and a panoramic view of Bangladesh villages, a few miles away. Source : Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation.

hepatitis B by 2020. The intensification of immunization activities will be carried out in 201 high focus districts in the first phase and 297 districts will be targeted for the second phase in 2015. 9.28 With the goal of providing holistic health solutions, the erstwhile Department of AYUSH (Ayurveda, Yoga and Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha and Homeopathy) has been elevated to a fullfledged ministry from 9 November 2014. The basic objective of the National AYUSH Mission (NAM) is to promote AYUSH medical systems through cost-effective AYUSH services and strengthening of educational systems. Steps are also underway for including yoga in the regular education curriculum. Paying heed to the Prime Minister’s exhortation during his address to the UN General Assembly in September 2014, the UN has declared 21 June International Yoga Day. 9.29 Given the multiple determinants of health, it is clear that a prevention agenda that addresses the social and economic environment requires cross-sectoral, multi-level interventions that involve

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Table 9.3 : Number and Percentage of Poor* Poverty line (in `)

Number of poor (million)

Poverty ratio (per cent)

Rural

Urban

Rural

Urban

Total

Rural

Urban

Total

2004-05

446.68

578.80

326.3

80.8

407.1

41.8

25.7

37.2

2011-12

816.00

1000.00

216.5

52.8

269.3

25.7

13.7

21.9

Year

Source: Neeti Aayog, * Estimated by Tendulkar Method.

sectors such as food and nutrition, education, drinking water and sanitation, housing, employment, industrial and occupational safety, welfare including social protection, family and community services, tribal affairs, and communications.

POVERTY 9.30 The latest estimates of poverty are available for the year 2011-12. These estimates have been made following Tendulkar Committee methodology using household consumption expenditure survey data collected by the NSSO in its sixty-eighth round (2011-12). Over a span of seven years the incidence of poverty declined from 37.2 per cent to 21.9 per cent in 2011-12 for the country as a whole, with a sharper decline in the number of rural poor (Table 9.3).

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON 9.31 The 2014 Human Development Report (HDR) presents the Human Development Index (HDI) values and ranks for 187 countries in terms of three basic parameters: to live a long and healthy life, to be educated and knowledgeable, and to enjoy a decent standard of living. India’s HDI value for 2013 is 0.586, positioning the country at 135 out of 187 countries and territories—the lowest among the BRICS countries, with Russia at 57, Brazil at 79, China at 91, and South Africa at118, and slightly ahead of Bangladesh and Pakistan. Significantly, while China improved its ranking by ten places between 2008 and 2013, India’s position improved by just one rank (Table 9.4). Thus a lot remains to be done to bridge the gap.

Table 9.4 : Trends and India’s Position in Global HDI 2013 Country

HDI 2013 Value Rank

Change in rank over Between 20122008 & 13 2013

GNI per capita 2013($)

LEB (years) 2013

Mean year of schooling (years) 2012 a

Expected Income Inequality year of Quintile Ginischooling income co(years) ratio efficient 2012 a 2003-12 2003-12

GII 2013 Value

Rank

Norway

0.944

63,909

81.5

12.6

17.6

…

25.8

0.068

0.914

-2

52,308

78.9

12.9

16.5

…

40.8

0.262

Germany

0.911

-1

43,049

80.7

12.9

16.3

…

28.3

0.046

0.892

-2

35,002

80.5

12.3

16.2

7.2

36.0

0.193

Russian Fed.

0.778

22,617

68.0

11.7

14.0

7.3

40.1

0.314

Sri Lanka

0.750

9,250

74.3

10.8

13.6

5.8

36.4

0.383

Brazil

0.744

-4

14,275

73.9

7.2

15.2

20.6

54.7

0.441

China

0.719

11,477

75.3

7.5

12.9

10.1

42.1

0.202

South Africa

0.658

118

11,788

56.9

9.9

13.1

25.3

63.1

0.461

94 127

India

0.586

135

5,150

66.4

4.4

11.7

5.0

33.9

0.563

Bangladesh

0.558

142

2,713

70.7

5.1

10.0

4.7

32.1

0.529

115

Pakistan

0.537

146

-1

4,652

66.6

4.7

7.7

4.2

30.0

0.563

127

0.702

13,723

70.8

7.7

12.2

0.451

World

Source : HDR 2014. Notes : $: GNI (gross national income) is based on 2011 dollar purchasing power parity (PPP). GII is Gender Inequality Index. LEB is life expectancy at birth : Data refers to 2012 or the most recent year available.

Social Infrastructure, Employment, and Human Development

9.32 India’s HDI is also below the average of countries in both the medium human development group (0.614) and in South Asia (0.588). Between 1980 and 2013, India’s life expectancy at birth (LEB) increased by 11.0 years, mean years of schooling increased by 2.5 years, and expected years of schooling increased by 5.3 years while gross national income (GNI) per capita increased by about 306.2 per cent. As compared to BRICS nations and some neighbouring countries, India reports the least mean years of schooling and an LEB that is just above that of South Africa. Bangladesh, with less GNI per capita than India, has a much higher LEB and mean years of schooling. China, which recorded a slightly higher HDI than India in 1980, has widened the margin in 2013 (Table 9.5). The existing gap in health and education indicators between India and developed countries and also many developing countries

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highlights the need for much faster and wider spread of basic health and education, as reflected by China and Sri Lanka. 9.33 In terms of gender equality, the HDR ranks India 127 out of 152 countries with a Gender Inequality Index (GII) of 0.563. The GII for 149 countries reveals the extent to which gender inequality erodes national achievements in reproductive health, empowerment and labour market participation . A comparison with India’s developing country peers in the G20 grouping also shows India in poor light on gender equality issues. Unlike the HDI, a higher GII value indicates poor performance (Table 9.6). 9.34 The Gender Development Index (GDI), defined as a ratio of the female to male HDI measures gender inequality according to three basic parameters of human development: health (LEB),

Table 9.5 : HDI Component Indices of Select Countries 2013 and 1980 HDI 2013

HDI 1980

LEB (years)

Expected years of schooling (years)

Mean years of schooling (years)

GNI per capita ($)

HDI Va l u e

LEB (years)

Russian Fed. Sri Lanka Brazil China South Africa India Bangladesh

68.0 74.3 73.9 75.3 56.9 66.4 70.7

14.0 13.6 15.2 12.9 13.1 11.7 10.0

11.7 10.8 7.2 7.5 9.9 4.4 5.1

22,617 9,250 14,275 11,477 11,788 5,150 2,713

0.778 0.750 0.744 0.719 0.658 0.586 0.558

67.4 68.2 62.7 67.0 56.9 55.4 54.9

12.2 10.0 9.9 8.4 11.1 6.4 4.9

7.1 7.1 2.6 3.7 4.8 1.9 2.0

2,475 9,154 690 9,756 1,268 1,021

0.569 0.545 0.423 0.569 0.369 0.336

Pakistan

66.6

7.7

4.7

4,652

0.537

58.0

3.7

1.8

2,376

0.356

Country

Expected Mean GNI HDI years of years of per Va l u e schooling schooling capita (years) (years) ($)

Source : HDR 2014. Notes :$: GNI (gross national income) is based on 2011 dollar purchasing power parity (PPP). LEB is life expectancy at birth : Data refers to 2012 or the most recent year available.

Table 9.6 : GII Component Indices of Select Countries 2013

Country

Gender Inequality MMR Adolescent Index 2010 birth rate value rank (death 2010-2015 2013 2013 per (per 1000 1 lakh women ages life 15-19) birth)

Argentina Russian Federation Brazil China Indonesia South Africa India

Source : HDR 2014.

0.381 0.314 0.441 0.202 0.500 0.461 0.563

74 52 85 37 103 94 127

77 34 56 37 220 300 200

54.4 25.7 70.8 8.6 48.3 50.9 32.8

Share of women seats in parliament 2013 (%)

25+, female population with at least some secondary education 2005-2012 (%)

25+, male population with at least some secondary education 2005-2012 (%)

37.7 12.1 9.6 23.4 18.6 41.1 10.9

57.0 89.6 51.9 58.7 39.9 72.7 26.6

54.9 92.5 49.0 71.9 49.2 75.9 50.4

15+,female 15+, male labour labour force force participation participation rate 2012 rate 2012 (%) (%)

47.3 57.0 59.5 63.8 51.3 44.2 28.8

75.0 71.4 80.9 78.1 84.4 60.0 80.9

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education (expected years of schooling for children and mean years for adults aged 25 years and older); and command over economic resources (estimated GNI per capita). Country rankings are based on absolute deviation from gender parity in HDI. The GDI is calculated for 148 countries. The female HDI value for India is 0.52 as compared to 0.63 for males, resulting in a GDI value of 0.828. In comparison, Bangladesh and China are ranked higher with values of 0.908 and 0.939 respectively (Table 9.7). 9.35 Thus, while India is in the bottom 25 per cent of all countries on the HDI, it ranks in the bottom 20 per cent on the GII. These statistics reflect the high levels of gender inequality in India and the poor status of women and girls in Indian society. India is a signatory to the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW), which is often described as an international bill of rights for women. It defines discrimination against women and sets the agenda for national action to end violations of women’s rights. An important element of CEDAW is its affirmation of women’s reproductive rights, including the right to determine the number and spacing of children and equal access to family planning. Unfortunately in India there is an increasingly disproportionate emphasis on women’s sterilization; thus tubectomies account for a whooping 97.5 per cent of all sterilization operations in 2013-14 (a massive jump from 78.6 per cent in the 1980s). This runs counter to our

goals of achieving gender equality and women’s empowerment. Sterilization constitutes 75 per cent of India’s contraceptive use. It is unparalleled in any country in the world today. The closest is Latin America where it forms 40 per cent of all contraceptive methods. 9.36 Another concern is the secular decline in the child sex ratio (CSR– girls per 1000 boys aged 0-4 or 0-6) in India from 976 in 1961 to 918 in 2011; the SRS (2013) reports a figure of 909 for 2011-13. Globally CSR is calculated as boys per 100 girls. Comparatively, in Asia and the Pacific, the CSR (boys per 100 girls aged 0-14) was 110 in 2012, much higher than the sex ratio under natural conditions (105). While China’s CSR declied from 121 in 2010 to 117 in 2012, India’s CSR increased from 109 to 111 over the same period. Figure 9.4 gives the trends in CSR in select countries in Asia between 1990 and 2012. 9.37 The UN General Assembly in 1993 defined violence against women as “any act of genderbased violence that results in, or is likely to result in, physical, sexual or psychological harm or suffering to women.” Consequently, apart from violence against married/adult women, excess female child mortality, female infanticide, and child marriage are also considered violence against the female gender. The implementation of the Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act 2005 (PWDVA) is weak, as nineteen states have no planned schemes.

Table 9.7 : GDI Component Indices of Select Ccountries 2013 Country

GDI 2013 HDI value LEB Mean years Expected years Estimated GNI Ratio of Rank (years) of schooling of schooling per captia ($) Female 2013 2013 2002-2012 2000-2012 2013 to male HDI 2013 F e m a l e Male F e m a l e Male F e m a l e Male F e m a l e Male F e m a l e Male

Sri Lanka

0.961

0.72

0.75

77.4

71.2

10.7

9.4

13.9

13.4

5078

13616

China

0.939

0.70

0.74

76.7

74.1

6.9

8.2

13.0

12.8

9288

13512

India

0.828

132

0.52

0.63

68.3

64.7

3.2

5.6

11.3

11.8

2277

7833

Bangladesh

0.908

107

0.53

0.58

71.5

69.9

4.6

5.6

10.3

9.7

1928

3480

Pakistan

0.750

145

0.45

0.60

67.5

65.7

3.3

6.1

6.9

8.4

1707

7439

Source : HDR 2014. Notes :

$: GNI (gross national income) is based on 2011 dollar purchasing power parity (PPP). GDI is Gender Deveopment Index. LEB is life expectancy at birth : Data refers to 2012 or the most recent year available.

Social Infrastructure, Employment, and Human Development

143

Source : Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2013.

9.38 Appropriately a new scheme, Beti Bachao Beti Padhao (BBBP) Programme, for promoting survival, protection, and education of the girl child was launched on 22 January 2015 at Panipat, Haryana, a state that is noted for the lowest CSR â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 835 (SRS 2013). It aims to address declining CSR through a mass campaign targeted at changing social mind set and creating awareness about the criticality of the issue. The overall goal of the BBBP programme is to celebrate the girl child and facilitate her education with the objectives of preventing gender-biased sex-selective elimination, ensuring survival and protection, and education of the girl child. 9.39 Comparison of select socio-economic development indicators of states is given in Appendix Table 9.8.

FOSTERING INCLUSIVE GROWTH 9.40 Indian development planning has focused on formulation of programmes and policies aimed at bringing the marginalized and poor sections of society into the main stream. The government has been implementing many such programmes for social and financial inclusion. The disbursement of

benefits needs a systematic channel which will provide for financial empowerment and make monitoring easier and the local bodies more accountable. The Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojna (PMJDY) launched on 28 August 2014 and the RuPay Card, which is a payment solution, are important schemes in this regard. These two schemes are complementary and will enable achievement of multiple objectives such as financial inclusion, insurance penetration, and digitalization. 9.41 Government has restructured and finetuned a number of ongoing programmes based on the field experience to make them need based. These are listed in Appendix Page A141-A145. To facilitate coordinated functioning of various social infrastructure and human development programmes, the government has launched the Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojna (SAGY) which will be implemented through the convergence and implementation of existing government programmes. In addition, the Vanbandhu Kalyan Yojna will be implemented in one block each of ten states that have Fifth Schedule areas. 9.42 Given the multiple schemes implemented to foster inclusive growth, the role of Panchayati

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Box 9.5 : Need to Strengthen Village Panchayats and ULGs The 73rd and 74th Constitutional Amendments marked a watershed in the history of decentralized governance, planning, and development in India as these made panchayats and ULGs the third tier of government with reasonable power and authority in addition to creating space for women and marginalized groups in the federal set-up. Decentralized democracy was also extended to Fifth Schedule areas through the provisions of another Panchayat (Extension to the Scheduled Areas) Act 1996 known as the Extension Act which not only made the gram sabha a strong body, but also put ‘jal, jungle, and jamin’ (water, forest, and land) under its control. These central acts, however, instead of clearly specifying the powers and functions of panchayats and municipalities, have left it to the discretion of state governments. Articles 243 G and 243 W of these acts decree that the legislature of a state may, by law, endow the panchayats/municipalities with such powers and authority as may be necessary to enable them to function as institutions of self-government. Such law may also contain provisions for devolution of powers and responsibilities upon panchayats/ municipalities, subject to such conditions as may be specified therein, with respect to the preparation of plans and implementation of such schemes for economic development and social justice as may be entrusted to them. These may include inter alia schemes and plans in relation to socioeconomic development and providing basic services as listed in the Eleventh and Twelfth Schedules of the constitution. Article 243 ZD of the 74th Amendment Act providing for constitution of district planning committees (DPC) by the state government in every district is a milestone in decentralized planning with people’s participation. These committees are expected to consolidate the plans prepared by the panchayats and municipalities in the district and prepare a draft development plan for the district as a whole. DPCs have been set up in most of the states. Much of implementation of these panchayat acts, i.e. power-sharing with panchayats / ULGs, is left to the states. Over the years panchayats and ULGs have not been strengthened in terms of functions, finances and functionaries (triple Fs) with regard to preparation of plans and the listed subjects. These amendment acts have the potential of becoming true vehicles for carrying out the government’s slogan of less government–more governance if an atmosphere of general consensus to adopt it is created among all the states. In order to convert outlays of the panchayat /municipality-centric programmes into outcomes, these institutions need greater awareness, responsibility, and accountability, which will also enable better connect of these programmes with the common man. There needs to be greater devolution of powers to the panchayats and municipalities in respect of the triple Fs in a phased manner. The majority of panchayat/municipality-centric programmes do have earmarked funds for awareness generation and capacity building. These funds across ministries need to be pooled together under the Panchayati Raj Ministry and Ministry of Urban Development to make infrastructure and capacity building of panchayats and municipalities a continuous and regular process. This will enable panchayats and municipalities to understand not only their role and rights but also their responsibilities and will make them accountable, bringing about qualitative improvement in governance at decentralized level. Such facilitation by the government will transform panchayats and municipalities into vibrant institutions and enable them to perform their envisaged role in participatory planning, implementation, execution, monitoring, and supervision and also carry out social audit of all panchayat/ municipality-centric programmes including the Swachh Bharat Mission.

Raj institutions and urban local governments (ULG) is critical (Box 9.5).

DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND AND RELATED POLICY INTERVENTIONS 9.43 A declining 0-14 population will impact both elementary (5-14 age group) and higher education (15-29 age group). Elementary education can be further subdivided into primary (5-9 age group) and middle/upper primary (10-

14 age group). The first stage of impact will be felt in declining enrolment in primary schools. As stated earlier, total enrolment in primary schools has fallen in 2013-14 while upper primary enrolment has grown. The dependency ratio for India is expected to fall from 54 per cent in 2010 to 49 per cent in 2020. In this scenario, given interstate disparities, states that are already facing this situation need to adopt specific policy measures in the field of education, wherein, instead of expanding the number of primary schools, focus should be on (i)

Social Infrastructure, Employment, and Human Development

improving access to education considering the high dropout rates among senior students; (ii) removing gender disparity especially in the higher age group and in rural areas; and (iii) improving quality of education, including pupil-teacher ratios and provision of amenities in schools, especially in view of the declining learning levels. 9.44 The lag in demographic transition between different states that necessitates state-specific policies to optimally garner the benefits of the demographic dividend. Owing to substantial fertility decline in the south during the last two decades, the south is ahead in the demographic transition compared to the north, thereby the window is already wide open in the south compared to the north. For instance, the projected average age of 29 years in 2020 has already been surpassed in some states like Kerala (33 years), Goa (32.3), Tamil Nadu (31.3), Himachal Pradesh

145

(30.4), Punjab (29.9), Andhra Pradesh (29.3), and West Bengal (29.1). Comparative picture of five states each with lowest and highest average age is shown in Figure 9.5. 9.45 This lag in demographic transition among states in India could turn out to be a great blessing from the point of view of coping with the problem of declining population. India is better placed in this respect than most other countries. Thus states already well into the demographic window should actively pursue policies for employment generation to the already bulging labour force, while states just entering the window period have some time to plan and must pursue policies simultaneously in several areas like education, health (including reproductive health), gender issues, and employment generation from now on so that they can fully utilize the opportunity.

TRENDS IN INDIAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S SOCIAL-SECTOR EXPENDITURE

9.46 Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data on expenditure on social services by the general government (centre and states) as a proportion of total expenditure has also been showing a mixed trend. It had declined to 22.9 per cent in 2012-13 from 24.7 per cent in 2010-11 but increased to 24.1 per cent in 2013-14 (RE) and declined again to 22.3 per cent in 2014-15 (BE). As a percentage of the GDP, expenditure on social services has declined from 6.9 per cent in 2009-10 to 6.7 per cent in 2014-15 (BE), with expenditure on education increasing from 3.0 per cent to 3.1 per cent and on health declining from 1.4 per cent to 1.2 per cent. There was a consistent rise in absolute social-sector expenditure by the general government (centre+state) even during the global crisis of 2008-09 and Euro area crisis of 201112, from ` 3,80,628 crore during 2008-09 to ` 5,80,868 crore in 2011-12 and further to ` 8,68,476 crore (BE) during 2014-15 (Appendix Table 9.9).

Source : Based on census 2001 and 2011.

9.47 Government spending on healthcare in India is only 1.2 per cent of GDP which is about 4 per cent of total government expenditure, less than

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Economic Survey 2014-15

30 per cent of total health spending. The failure to reach minimum levels of public health expenditure remains the single most important constraint to attaining desired health outcomes. While it is important to recognize the growth and potential of a rapidly expanding private sector, international experience shows that health outcomes and financial protection are closely related to absolute and relative levels of public health expenditure.

CONCLUSION 9.48 With women accounting for nearly 48 per cent of India’s population (Census 2011), there is need to ensure and safeguard their place in the socio-economic milieu. Since this requires a change in the patriarchal mindset of the larger population, government has to continue to be a proactive facilitator of this change through consistent policies. India aims to be in the top 50 countries of the Doing Business ranking; it must at the same time endeavour to be in the top 50 countries in HDI

and GII rankings. Low levels of education and skill deficit are responsible for low income levels of a large majority of the labour force, thereby perpetuating inequality. Consequently, the government’s thrust on skill development as well as ‘Make in India’ aims at improving employability and generating employment avenues. Since demographic predictions warn that the promise of the demographic dividend will not last long, in any case not beyond 2050, India needs to take advantage of this demographic window in the next couple of decades. The challenge for the country now is in planning and acting towards converting its demographic ‘burden’ into enhanced opportunities for growth by dovetailing the quality of manpower to the requirements of employers (off-farm, industry, and services sectors), both domestic and international. For this intention to translate into reality, a ‘bottom-up’ approach using Panchayati Raj institutions and ULBs as agents of change is the need of the hour.

ECONOMIC SURVEY 2014-15 STATISTICAL APPENDIX

STATISTICAL APPENDIX : ECONOMIC SURVEY 2014-15 1.

National Income and Production

1.1 1.2 1.3 A1 1.3 A2 1.3 B1 1.3 B2 1.4 A 1.4 B 1.5 1.6 1.7 A 1.7 B 1.8 A 1.8 B 1.9 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.22

1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28

Gross National Income and Net National Income .................................................................................................. Annual Growth Rates of Gross National Income and Net National Income ...................................................... Gross Value Added at Factor Cost by Industry of Origin (at Constant Prices) ................................................... Gross Value Added at Basic Prices by Industry of Origin (at Constant Prices) ................................................... Gross Value Added at Factor Cost by Industry of Origin (at Current Prices) ...................................................... Gross Value Added at Basic Prices by Industry of Origin (at Current Prices) ...................................................... Annual Growth Rates of Real Gross Value Added at Factor Cost by Industry of Origin (Per cent) ................ Annual Growth Rates of Real Gross Value Added at Basic Prices by Industry of Origin (Per cent) ................ Gross Domestic Saving and Gross Capital Formation (at Current Prices) .......................................................... Gross Domestic Saving and Gross Capital Formation as per cent of GDP at Current Market Prices ............ Net State Domestic Product at Current Prices ........................................................................................................ Growth of Net State Domestic Product at Current Prices ..................................................................................... Per Capita Net State Domestic Product at Current Prices .................................................................................... Growth of Per Capita Net State Domestic Product at Current Prices ................................................................. Index Numbers of Agricultural Production ............................................................................................................... Index Numbers of Area under Principal Crops ........................................................................................................ Index Numbers of Yeild of Principal Crops ............................................................................................................. Production of Major Crops ........................................................................................................................................ Gross Area under Major Crops .................................................................................................................................... Yield per Hectare of Major Crops .............................................................................................................................. Production of Important Crops in Three Largest Producing States in 2013-14 ............................................... Net Availability of Cereals and Pulses ....................................................................................................................... Net Availability, Procurement and Public Distribution of Foodgrains ................................................................. Per Capita Availability of Certain Important Articles of Consumption ............................................................. Production, Imports and Consumption of Fertilizers ............................................................................................. Production of Major Livestock Products and Fish ................................................................................................. Production of Coal and Lignite .................................................................................................................................. Progress of Electricity Supply (Utilities and Non-utilities) A : Installed Plant Capacity ........................................................................................................................................ B : Energy Generated (Gross) ..................................................................................................................................... Operations of Indian Railways ................................................................................................................................... Revenue Earning Goods Traffic on Indian Railways A : Traffic Originating ................................................................................................................................................. B : Goods Carried .......................................................................................................................................................... Operations of Road Transport ................................................................................................................................... Growth of Civil Aviation ............................................................................................................................................. Commodity Balance of Petroleum and Petroleum Products ................................................................................. Index of Industrial Production ...................................................................................................................................

Budgetary Transactions

2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.10 2.11 2.12

Budgetary Transactions of the Central and State Governments and Union Territories ................................... Total Expenditure of the Central Government ....................................................................................................... Eleventh Plan (2007-2012) Outlay by Heads of Development : Centre, States and Union Territories ....... Twelfth Plan (2012-17) Outlay by Heads of Development: Centre, States and Union Territories ............... Financing for Central and State Annual Plans 2013-14(RE/LE) and 2014-15 (BE/AP) ................................. Overall Financing Pattern of the Public Sector Plan Outlay During the Twelfth Plan : 2012-2017 ............. Financial Performance of Indian Railways ............................................................................................................... Financial Performance of the Department of Posts .............................................................................................. Receipts and Expenditure of the Central Government .......................................................................................... Outstanding liabilities of the Central Government ................................................................................................. Total Expenditure and Capital Formation by the Central Government and its Financing .............................. Receipts and Disbursements of State and Consolidated General Government ....................................................

Employment

3.1 3.2

Employment in Organised Sectors â&#x20AC;&#x201D;Public and Private ....................................................................................... Performance of Central Public Sector Enterprises .................................................................................................

Monetary Trends

4.1 4.2

Scheduled Commercial Banks: Seasonal Flow of Funds .......................................................................................... Scheduled Commercial Banks: Variations in Selected Items ..................................................................................

1.23 1.24

PAGE

A1-A2 A3-A4 A5-A6 A6 A7-A8 A8 A9-A10 A10 A11-A13 A14-A16 A17 A18 A19 A20 A21 A22 A23 A24 A25 A26 A27 A28 A29 A30 A31 A32 A33 A34 A35 A36 A37 A38 A39 A40 A41 A42

A43 A44-A45 A46 A47 A48 A49 A49 A49 A50 A51 A52 A53-A54

A55 A56

A57 A58

STATISTICAL APPENDIX : ECONOMIC SURVEY 2014-15 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6

Scheduled Commercial Banks’ Outstanding Advances against Sensitive Commodities ..................................... Branch Expansion of Public Sector Banks and Other Commercial Banks .......................................................... Advances to Agriculture and other Priority Sectors by Public Sector Banks ...................................................... State-wise Distribution of Bank Offices, Aggregate Deposits, Gross Bank Credit and Percentage Share of Advances to Priority Sectors by Public Sector Banks .......................................................................................

Prices

5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5

Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices ......................................................................................................................... Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices - Selected Commodities and Commodity Groups .................................... All India Consumer Price Index Numbers ................................................................................................................ Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices - Relative Prices of Manufactured and Agricultural Products ................ Minimum Support Price/Procurement Price for Crops (Crop Year Basis) .........................................................

Balance of Payments

6.1A 6.1B 6.2 6.3A 6.3B 6.4 6.5

Foreign Exchange Reserves (` crore) ....................................................................................................................... Foreign Exchange Reserves ( US$ million) .............................................................................................................. Balance of Payments as per IMF Balance of Payments Manual 5 ...................................................................... Balance of Payments as per IMF Balance of Payments Manual 6 (` crore) .................................................... Balance of Payments as per IMF Balance of Payments Manual 6 (US$ million) ............................................. Exchange Rate of Rupee vis-a-vis Selected Currencies of the World .................................................................. Trends in Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rate of Rupee .........................................................................

Foreign Trade

7.1A 7.1B 7.2A 7.2B 7.3A 7.3B 7.4A 7.4B 7.5 7.6

Exports, Imports and Trade Balance (` crore) ...................................................................................................... Exports, Imports and Trade Balance (US$ million) ............................................................................................... Principal Imports ......................................................................................................................................................... Share and Percentage Change of Major Imports .................................................................................................... Principal Exports ......................................................................................................................................................... Share and Percentage Change of Major Exports .................................................................................................... Direction of Imports : Imports by Regions and Countries .................................................................................... Direction of Exports : Exports by Regions and Countries .................................................................................... India’s Share in World Exports by Commodity Divisions and Groups (US$ million) ....................................... Index Numbers of Foreign Trade ...............................................................................................................................

External Assistance

8.1A 8.1B 8.2A 8.2B 8.3A 8.3B 8.4A 8.4B

Overall External Assistance (` crore) ...................................................................................................................... Overall External Assistance ( US$ million) ............................................................................................................. Authorization of External Assistance by Source (` crore) ................................................................................... Authorization of External Assistance by Source ( US$ million) .......................................................................... Utilization of External Assistance by Source (` crore) ........................................................................................ Utilization of External Assistance by Source ( US$ million) ................................................................................ India’s External Debt Outstanding (` crore) .......................................................................................................... India’s External Debt Outstanding ( US$ million) ..................................................................................................

Human Development Indicators

9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9

Selected Indicators of Human Development for Major States .............................................................................. Gross Enrolment Ratio in Classes I-V, VI-VIII and I-VIII ..................................................................................... Number of Recognised Educational Institutions in India ....................................................................................... State-wise Literacy Rates (1951-2011) .................................................................................................................... Access to Safe Drinking Water in Households in India .......................................................................................... Population of India (1951-2011) .............................................................................................................................. Population under Different Age Group and Child sex Ratio in 2001 and 2011 ................................................. Socio Economic Profiles and Inter State Comparison of India ............................................................................ Trends of Social Services Expenditure by General Government ........................................................................... List of Schemes/Programmes .....................................................................................................................................

PAGE A59 A60 A61 A62-A63

A64-A65 A66-A67 A68-A69 A70 A71

A72-A74 A75-A76 A77-A78 A79 A80 A81-A82 A83

A84-A85 A86-A87 A88-A90 A91 A92-A94 A95 A96-A101 A102-A107 A108-A111 A112

A113-A114 A115-A116 A117-A118 A119-A120 A121-A122 A123-A124 A125-A126 A127-A128

A129 A130 A131 A132 A133 A134 A135 A136-A139 A140 A141-A145

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 1.1 : Gross National Income and Net National Income

Year 1

Gross national income at market prices

Net national income at market prices

Per capita net national income at market prices

(` ` crore)

(` )

Current Constant prices prices 2

Current Constant prices prices 4

Index numbers (for 2004-05 series:1950-51=100; for 2011-12 series: 2011-12=100)

C u r r e n t C on s t a n t prices prices

Net national Per capita net income national income Current Constant Current Constant prices prices prices prices

2004-05 Series 1950-51

10360

292996

9829

269724

274

7513

100.0

1951-52

11019

302010

10443

279256

286

7651

106.4

103.1

106.2

103.5

1952-53

10825

310068

10241

287818

275

7737

104.5

105.8

104.2

106.7

1953-54

11791

329250

11235

307397

296

8111

113.8

112.4

114.3

114.0

1954-55

11141

344902

10635

326057

276

8447

107.5

117.7

108.2

120.9

1955-56

11361

356460

10819

337156

275

8579

109.7

121.7

110.1

125.0

1956-57

13530

376234

12944

356008

323

8878

130.6

128.4

131.7

132.0

1957-58

13931

374503

13277

353525

325

8644

134.5

127.8

135.1

131.1

1958-59

15516

402020

14802

379855

354

9087

149.8

137.2

150.6

140.8

1959-60

16327

412031

15564

389080

365

9133

157.6

140.6

158.4

144.3

1960-61

17870

434497

17062

411519

393

9482

172.5

148.3

173.6

152.6

1961-62

18912

450212

18016

426103

406

9597

182.5

153.7

183.3

158.0

1962-63

20321

463161

19350

437686

426

9641

196.2

158.1

196.9

162.3

1963-64

23350

491049

22266

464130

480

10003

225.4

167.6

226.5

172.1

1964-65

27222

527153

25982

498287

548

10512

262.8

179.9

264.3

184.7

1965-66

28693

512985

27300

482480

563

9948

277.0

175.1

277.8

178.9

1966-67

32439

512781

30806

480102

622

9699

313.1

175.0

313.4

178.0

1967-68

38003

552429

36136

517516

714

10228

366.8

188.5

367.7

191.9

1968-69

40257

571460

38259

534677

739

10322

388.6

195.0

389.3

198.2

1969-70

44334

608809

42035

569591

795

10767

427.9

207.8

427.7

211.2

1970-71

47354

640275

44550

596470

823

11025

457.1

218.5

453.3

221.1

1971-72

50708

650938

47630

605211

860

10924

489.5

222.2

484.6

224.4

1972-73

55912

647647

52487

600195

926

10585

539.7

221.0

534.0

222.5

1973-74

68095

669444

63983

619883

1103

10688

657.3

228.5

651.0

229.8

1974-75

80479

678151

75182

625455

1268

10547

776.8

231.5

764.9

231.9

1975-76

86452

740806

80189

685230

1321

11289

834.5

252.8

815.9

254.0

1976-77

93189

753348

86382

694149

1393

11196

899.5

257.1

878.9

257.4

1977-78

105615

808500

98287

746719

1550

11778

1019.5

275.9

1000.0

276.8

1978-79

114491

854867

106380

790566

1642

12200

1105.1

291.8

1082.4

293.1

1979-80

125882

811357

115995

743925

1747

11204

1215.1

276.9

1180.2

275.8

1980-81

149987

866338

138565

795193

2041

11711

1447.8

295.7

1409.8

294.8

1981-82

175845

917272

161924

842429

2340

12174

1697.4

313.1

1647.5

312.3

1982-83

196010

946491

179895

867337

2541

12251

1892.0

323.0

1830.3

321.6

1983-84

228077

1015342

210108

932241

2906

12894

2201.5

346.5

2137.7

345.6

1984-85

255187

1052643

234211

963767

3169

13041

2463.2

359.3

2382.9

357.3

1985-86

288095

1108266

262958

1013410

3483

13423

2780.9

378.3

2675.4

375.7

1986-87

322144

1160809

293806

1060195

3811

13751

3109.5

396.2

2989.3

393.1

1987-88

365592

1204856

332400

1097111

4218

13923

3528.9

411.2

3381.9

406.8

1988-89

432397

1317940

393546

1204380

4889

14961

4173.8

449.8

4004.1

446.5

1989-90

496197

1396154

450949

1275833

5486

15521

4789.6

476.5

4588.1

473.0

1990-91

578667

1470766

526017

1342031

6270

15996

5585.7

502.0

5351.9

497.6

1991-92

663798

1485707

599171

1348043

7000

15748

6407.4

507.1

6096.2

499.8 Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;1

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 1.1 : Gross National Income and Net National Income (Contd...)

Year 1

Gross national income at market prices

Net national income at market prices

Per capita net national income at market prices

(` ` crore)

(` `)

Current Constant prices prices

Index numbers (for 2004-05 series:1950-51=100; for 2011-12 series: 2011-12=100)

C u r r e n t C on s t a n t prices prices

Net national income Current Constant prices prices

Per capita net national income Current Constant prices prices

1992-93

762900

1567944

688762

1422097

7899

16308

7364.0

535.1

7007.7

527.2

1993-94

879275

1644886

796418

1492864

8928

16736

8487.3

561.4

8103.0

553.5

1994-95

1032507

1755272

935759

1592980

10283

17505

9966.4

599.1

9520.7

590.6

1995-96

1213241

1888228

1100655

1715639

11861

18487

11710.9

644.5

11198.5

636.1

1996-97

1406195

2032837

1276347

1849226

13492

19548

13573.5

693.8

12986.0

685.6

1997-98

1559189

2118975

1411922

1920927

14646

19927

15050.2

723.2

14365.4

712.2

1998-99

1788410

2250012

1624669

2038124

16528

20734

17262.8

767.9

16530.0

755.6

1999-00

2007699

2448654

1821227

2220003

18194

22178

19379.5

835.7

18529.8

823.1

2000-01

2154680

2535911

1947788

2291795

19115

22491

20798.3

865.5

19817.5

849.7

2001-02

2335777

2661819

2106928

2401875

20259

23095

22546.4

908.5

21436.6

890.5

2002-03

2519637

2766298

2273456

2492931

21529

23607

24321.1

944.1

23130.9

924.3

2003-04

2820795

2983497

2548640

2692470

23775

25116

27228.0

1018.3

25930.8

998.2

2004-05

3219835

2899944

26629

31079.8

1098.9

29505.0

1075.2

2005-06

3667253

3518348

3303532

3167455

29869

28639

35398.6

1200.8

33611.3

1174.3

2006-07

4261472

3841974

3842743

3456274

34249

30805

41134.4

1311.3

39097.4

1281.4

2007-08

4966578

4233768

4481882

3806140

39384

33446

47940.5

1445.0

45600.2

1411.1

2008-09

5597140

4390966

5031943

3922062

43604

33987

54027.0

1498.6

51196.7

1454.1

2009-10

6439827

4763090

5780028

4241183

49402

36249

62161.2

1625.6

58808.0

1572.4

2010-11

7702308

5227739

6942089

4657438

58534

39270

74347.4

1784.2

70631.2

1726.7

2011-12

8932892

5586683

8052996

4958849

66997

41255

86225.8

1906.7

81934.0

1838.5

2011-12 Series 2011-12 a

8755188

7846531

64316

100.0

2012-13 a

9871777

9172925

8841733

8193427

71593

66344

112.8

104.8

112.7

104.4

9800813 10056523

8751834

80388

69959

128.0

111.9

128.2

111.5

2014-15 a,b 12498662 10527936 11217079

9400266

88533

74193

142.8

120.2

143.0

119.8

2013-14 a 11205169

Source : Central Statistics Office. a

: New Series Estimates.

: Advance Estimates

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;2

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 1.2 : Annual Growth Rates of Gross National Income and Net National Income

Year

Gross national income at market prices Current prices

Constant prices

Net national income at market prices Current prices

Constant prices

(Per cent) Per capita net national income at market prices Current prices

Constant prices

3.1

6.2

3.5

4.5

1.8 1.1

2004-05 Series 1951-52

6.4

1952-53

-1.8

2.7

-1.9

3.1

-3.8

1953-54

8.9

6.2

9.7

6.8

7.7

4.8

1954-55

-5.5

4.8

-5.3

6.1

-7.1

4.1

1955-56

2.0

3.4

1.7

3.4

-0.1

1.6

1956-57

19.1

5.5

19.6

5.6

17.3

3.5

1957-58

3.0

-0.5

2.6

-0.7

0.6

-2.6

1958-59

11.4

7.3

11.5

7.4

9.1

5.1

1959-60

5.2

2.5

5.1

2.4

3.2

0.5

1960-61

9.5

5.5

9.6

5.8

7.6

3.8

1961-62

5.8

3.6

5.6

3.5

3.2

1.2

1962-63

7.5

2.9

7.4

2.7

5.0

0.5

1963-64

14.9

6.0

15.1

6.0

12.6

3.8

1964-65

16.6

7.4

16.7

7.4

14.2

5.1

1965-66

5.4

-2.7

5.1

-3.2

2.7

-5.4

1966-67

13.1

0.0

12.8

-0.5

10.6

-2.5

1967-68

17.2

7.7

17.3

7.8

14.8

5.4

1968-69

5.9

3.4

5.9

3.3

3.4

0.9

1969-70

10.1

6.5

9.9

6.5

7.6

4.3

1970-71

6.8

5.2

6.0

4.7

3.6

2.4

1971-72

7.1

1.7

6.9

1.5

4.4

-0.9

1972-73

10.3

-0.5

10.2

-0.8

7.7

-3.1

1973-74

21.8

3.4

21.9

3.3

19.2

1.0

1974-75

18.2

1.3

17.5

0.9

14.9

-1.3

1975-76

7.4

9.2

6.7

9.6

4.2

7.0 -0.8

1976-77

7.8

1.7

7.7

1.3

5.5

1977-78

13.3

7.3

13.8

7.6

11.3

5.2

1978-79

8.4

5.7

8.2

5.9

3.6

1979-80

9.9

-5.1

9.0

-5.9

6.4

-8.2

1980-81

19.1

6.8

19.5

6.9

16.8

4.5

1981-82

17.2

5.9

16.9

5.9

14.7

3.9

1982-83

11.5

3.2

11.1

3.0

8.6

0.6

1983-84

16.4

7.3

16.8

7.5

14.4

5.3

1984-85

11.9

3.7

11.5

3.4

9.1

1.1

1985-86

12.9

5.3

12.3

5.2

9.9

2.9

1986-87

11.8

4.7

11.7

4.6

9.4

2.4

1987-88

13.5

3.8

13.1

3.5

10.7

1.2

1988-89

18.3

9.4

18.4

9.8

15.9

7.5

1989-90

14.8

5.9

14.6

5.9

12.2

3.7

1990-91

16.6

5.3

16.6

5.2

14.3

3.1

1991-92

14.7

1.0

13.9

0.4

11.6

-1.5

1992-93

14.9

5.5

15.0

5.5

12.8

3.6

1993-94

15.3

4.9

15.6

5.0

13.0

2.6

1994-95

17.4

6.7

17.5

6.7

15.2

4.6 Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;3

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 1.2: Annual Growth Rates of Gross National Income and Net National Income (Contd...)

Year

Gross national income at market prices Current prices

Constant prices

Net national income at market prices Current prices

Constant prices

(Per cent) Per capita net national income at market prices Current prices

Constant prices

1995-96

17.5

7.6

17.6

7.7

15.3

5.6

1996-97

15.9

7.7

16.0

7.8

13.8

5.7

1997-98

10.9

4.2

10.6

3.9

8.6

1.9

1998-99

14.7

6.2

15.1

6.1

12.8

4.1

1999-00

12.3

8.8

12.1

8.9

10.1

7.0

2000-01

7.3

3.6

6.9

3.2

5.1

1.4

2001-02

8.4

5.0

8.2

4.8

6.0

2.7

2002-03

7.9

3.9

7.9

3.8

6.3

2.2

2003-04

12.0

7.9

12.1

8.0

10.4

6.4

2004-05

14.1

7.9

13.8

7.7

12.0

6.0

2005-06

13.9

9.3

13.9

9.2

12.2

7.5

2006-07

16.2

9.2

16.3

9.1

14.7

7.6

2007-08

16.5

10.2

16.6

10.1

15.0

8.6

2008-09

12.7

3.7

12.3

3.0

10.7

1.6

2009-10

15.1

8.5

14.9

8.1

13.3

6.7

2010-11

19.6

9.8

20.1

9.8

18.5

8.3

2011-12

16.0

6.9

16.0

6.5

14.5

5.1

2011-12 Series 2012-13 a

12.8

4.8

12.7

4.4

11.3

3.2

2013-14 a

13.5

6.8

13.7

6.8

12.3

5.4

2014-15 a,b

11.5

7.4

10.1

6.1

7.4 11.5 Annual Average Growth Rates

First Plan (1951-56)

2.0

4.0

2.1

4.6

0.3

2.7

Second Plan (1956-61)

9.6

4.1

9.7

4.1

7.5

2.1

Thiird Plan (1961-66)

10.0

3.4

10.0

3.3

7.6

1.0

Three Annual Plansl(1966-69)

12.0

3.7

12.0

3.5

9.6

1.3

Fourth Plan (1969-74)

11.2

3.2

11.0

3.0

8.5

0.7

Fifth Plan (1974-79)

11.0

5.1

10.8

5.0

8.4

2.7

9.9

-5.1

9.0

-5.9

6.4

-8.2

Sixth Plan (1980-85)

15.2

5.4

15.1

5.3

12.7

3.1

Seventh Plan (1985-90)

14.2

5.8

14.0

5.8

11.6

3.6

Two Annual Plans (1990-92)

15.7

3.2

15.3

2.8

13.0

0.8

Eighth Plan (1992-97)

16.2

6.5

16.3

6.5

14.0

4.4

Ninth Plan (1997-2002)

10.7

5.6

10.6

5.4

8.5

3.4

Tenth Plan (2002-2007)

12.8

7.6

12.8

7.6

11.1

5.9

Eleventh Plan (2007-2012)*

16.0

7.8

16.0

7.5

14.4

6.0

Annual Plan (1979-80)

Source : Central Statistics Office a : New Series Estimates. b : Advance Estimates * Data for 2011-12 based on 2004-05 series has been taken for compilation of average growth rates

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;4

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 1.3 A1 : Gross Value Added at Factor Cost by Industry of Origin (` crore) At constant prices Ye a r

Agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining and quarrying

Manufacturing, construction, electricity, gas and water supply

Trade, hotels, transport & communication

Financing, insurance, real estate and business services

1950-51

150191

40138

30792

23325

28474

279618

1951-52

152987

41996

31608

23863

29329

286147

1952-53

157764

41834

32641

24863

29934

294267

1953-54

169547

44416

33861

25219

30860

312177

1954-55

174611

48325

36065

26140

31967

325431

1955-56

173255

53962

38700

27190

32955

333766

1956-57

182651

58809

41537

27635

34219

352766

1957-58

175180

57737

42831

28679

35765

348500

1958-59

192337

62009

44965

29492

37233

374948

1959-60

190851

66378

47779

30619

38834

383153

1960-61

204340

73555

51879

31252

40741

410279

1961-62

205014

78638

55259

32596

42656

423011

1962-63

202234

83517

58503

33693

45686

431960

1963-64

207030

92432

62650

34735

48684

453829

1964-65

225287

99250

66890

35688

51894

488247

1965-66

202906

102475

68079

36766

53950

470402

1966-67

200481

106304

69862

37412

56438

475190

1967-68

228813

109856

72852

38431

58659

513860

1968-69

228836

115422

76155

40305

61272

527270

1969-70

243347

124372

80275

41980

64655

561630

1970-71

258665

126356

84205

43735

68218

589787

1971-72

254395

129506

86121

45989

71264

595741

1972-73

243082

133917

87991

47767

73594

593843

1973-74

259751

134649

91686

48936

75541

620872

1974-75

256719

136045

97176

48779

79120

628079

1975-76

289695

144928

105980

52142

81914

684634

1976-77

274522

158354

110697

56277

84190

693191

1977-78

300873

170123

118084

59032

86450

744972

1978-79

307874

182590

127772

63203

90186

785965

1979-80

271096

176035

126751

63818

96779

745083

1980-81

305906

183970

133906

65041

101666

798506

1981-82

321876

197519

142057

70326

103842

843426

1982-83

323862

197833

149903

77029

111849

868092

1983-84

354720

214737

157545

84585

116027

936270

1984-85

360230

224284

165037

90907

124065

973357

1985-86

362783

233818

178195

99783

131184

1013866

C o m m u n i t y Gross value Social & added at Personal factor cost services (2 to 6) 7

2004-05 series

1986-87

364989

245385

188888

110295

141043

1057612

1987-88

360949

259641

198578

118383

151240

1094993

1988-89

417581

280863

210405

129934

160385

1206243

1989-90

425075

304461

226074

146088

173022

1280228

1990-91

444880

325450

237736

155165

180564

1347889

1991-92

438685

325150

243178

171956

185232

1367171 Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;5

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 1.3 A 1 : Gross Value Added at Factor Cost by Industry of Origin (Contd...) (` crore) At constant prices

Year

Agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining and quarrying

Manufacturing, construction, electricity, gas and water supply

Trade, hotels, transport & communication

Financing, insurance, real estate and business services

C o m m u n i t y Gross value Social & added at Personal factor cost services (2 to 6) 7

1992-93

465084

336716

256897

181320

196332

1440504

1993-94

479592

357237

274682

201568

205101

1522344

1994-95

504477

389903

301997

209401

209742

1619694

1995-96

504527

436863

342536

226348

225157

1737741

1996-97

549202

468146

370200

240354

243288

1876319

1997-98

542313

483585

398109

268495

263486

1957032

1998-99

574374

504485

428613

289440

289085

2087828

1999-00

590696

535730

477605

327111

323800

2254942

2000-01

592227

570571

508299

338661

338723

2348481

2001-02

624923

585971

552118

359684

352267

2474962

2002-03

594280

627374

597896

385661

365724

2570935

2003-04

643183

676833

664637

406098

384998

2775749

2004-05

650454

744755

727720

437174

411361

2971464

2005-06

680628

824272

815407

492340

440426

3253073

2006-07

711768

928626

910084

561063

452823

3564364

2007-08

751077

1023998

1009520

628124

483917

3896636

2008-09

753744

1071681

1085125

703629

544497

4158676

2009-10

764817

1173089

1197891

771905

608369

4516071

2010-11

828431

1262722

1344024

849189

634167

4918533

2011-12

864557

1369932

1402261

945534

665246

5247530

Source : Central Statistics Office. Notes : 1. For the years prior to 1999-2000 totals under col. 7 may not add up to totals of individual item under col. 2 to col. 6 due to splicing technique applied independently at the level of each industry and at the total level. 2. Estimates for the years 2011-12 onwards (at base 2011-12) are available at basic prices only and are given in table 1.3 A2.

Table 1.3 A 2 : Gross Value Added at Basic Prices by Industry of Origin (` crore) At constant prices Year

Agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining and quarrying

Manufacturing, construction, electricity, gas and water supply

Trade, hotels, transport & communication

Financing, insurance, real estate and business services

2011-12 a

1768393

2450654

1413120

1539575

1023803

8195546

2012-13 a

1785723

2517213

1548739

1675405

1072144

8599224

2013-14 a

1855670

2628909

1720513

1807338

1157357

9169787

2014-15 a,b

1879482

2795164

1865230

2055706

1262091

9857673

C o m m u n i t y Gross value Social & added at Personal basic prices services (2 to 6) 7

2011-12 series

Source : Central Statistics Office. a : New Series Estimates.

: Advance Estimates.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;6

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 1.3 B1 : Gross Value Added at Factor Cost by Industry of Origin (` crore) At current prices Year

Agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining and quarrying 2

Manufacturing, construction, electricity, gas and water supply

Trade, hotels, transport & communication

Financing, insurance, real estate and business services

C o m m u n i t y Gross value Social & added at Personal factor cost services (2 to 6)

2004-05 Series 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 1959-60 1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92

5274 5453 5316 5850 4993 4847 6152 6045 7002 7043 7434 7704 7899 9274 11291 11301 13123 16393 16912 18505 19086 19510 21448 28171 31062 31028 31833 37592 38717 40373 50760 58745 63985 75982 82204 88083 95182 105358 130731 144461 168166 195454

1346 1505 1416 1559 1640 1760 2071 2148 2334 2616 3113 3398 3740 4274 4788 5199 5819 6380 6940 7944 8622 9538 10534 12230 15232 16571 18811 21270 23951 26774 30900 36090 39953 47053 53656 60593 67754 77630 91163 108908 127079 140700

968 1048 1055 1121 1151 1192 1378 1525 1667 1801 1985 2145 2348 2628 3084 3345 3890 4445 4732 5107 5627 6102 6730 8057 10642 12067 13066 14702 16119 18604 21968 26946 30749 35716 41125 48022 54272 61963 73159 85630 100318 115570

1254 1349 1425 1537 1647 1768 1917 2054 2203 2364 2547 2602 2987 3231 3512 3796 4063 4458 4772 5120 5579 6117 6694 7465 8390 9511 10579 11540 12448 13576 15120 17835 20453 23388 26907 30819 35337 40387 46926 55297 64598 78904

1115 1162 1201 1250 1283 1361 1430 1503 1597 1760 1989 2154 2343 2599 2945 3276 3665 4105 4422 4822 5315 5901 6456 7261 9142 10290 11311 12296 13529 15149 17537 19927 23134 26345 30311 34284 39428 45700 52994 60741 70019 81366

10036 10596 10449 11378 10689 10861 12965 13255 14827 15574 17049 17992 19238 21986 25686 26895 30613 35976 37938 41722 44382 47221 51943 63658 74930 79582 85545 97633 104930 114500 136838 160214 178985 209356 235113 262717 292924 332068 396295 456540 531814 613528

1992-93 1993-94 1994-95

219680 254876 293013

163887 188251 229365

136250 160990 192142

87495 105686 119442

94507 106090 118663

703723 817961 955386 Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;7

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 1.3 B1 : Gross Value Added at Factor Cost by Industry of Origin (Contd...) (` crore) At current prices

Year

Agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining and quarrying

Manufacturing, construction, electricity, gas and water supply

Trade, hotels, transport & communication

Financing, insurance, real estate and business services

1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

319243 381142 408521 466446 497027 506476 546674 548062 608788 650454 732234 829771 961330 1083032 1242818 1524552 1721814

280971 318260 348543 393491 426993 474323 497578 550421 618840 744755 859410 1033410 1205458 1360426 1536492 1763584 2061650

231175 273135 313093 358538 400650 443169 491952 543691 624394 727720 846606 998379 1150044 1310845 1481623 1779630 2072272

143791 158637 180642 210593 260522 282316 321543 360194 402510 437174 493102 586595 691464 845369 964937 1165243 1381524

140190 166469 193188 236123 273013 294459 317513 341496 371288 411361 459151 505121 573790 703895 883033 1015850 1154431

1118586 1301788 1447613 1668739 1858205 2000743 2175260 2343864 2625819 2971464 3390503 3953276 4582086 5303567 6108903 7248860 8391691

2011-12 a 2012-13 a 2013-14 a 2014-15 a,b

1813331 2013061 2248888

2441242 2653520 2898782

1509686 1775020 2038838

1022783 1159515 1355247

8206398 9263138 10487074

C o m m u n i t y Gross value Social & added at Personal factor cost services (2 to 6) 7

2011-12 Series 1419356 1662022 1945319

Source : Central Statistics Office. a

: New Series Estimates.

: Advance Estimates.

Notes : 1. For the years prior to 1999-2000 totals under col. 7 may not add up to totals of individual item under col. 2 to col. 6 due to splicing technique applied independently at the level of each industry and at the total level. 2. Estimates for the years 2011-12 onwards (at base 2011-12) are available at basic prices only and are given in table 1.3 B2.

Table 1.3 B2 : Gross Value Added at Basic Prices by Industry of Origin (` crore) At current prices Year

Agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining and quarrying

Manufacturing, construction, electricity, gas and water supply

Trade, hotels, transport & communication

Financing, insurance, real estate and business services

2011-12 a

1768393

2450654

1413120

1539575

1023803

2012-13 a

1953447

2669794

1660477

1807699

1160634

9252051

2013-14 a

2179696

2921398

1946060

2074623

1355362

10477140

2014-15 a,b

2279591

3215834

2181998

2440985

1571297

11689705

C o m m u n i t y Gross value Social & added at Personal basic prices services (2 to 6) 7

2011-12 Series

Source : Central Statistics Office. a : New Series Estimates.

: Advance Estimates.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;8

8195546

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 1.4A : Annual Growth Rates of Real Gross Value Added at Factor Cost by Industry of Origin (Per cent) Year

Agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining and quarrying

Manufacturing, construction, electricity, gas and water supply

Trade, hotels, transport & communication

Financing, insurance, real estate and business services

C o m m u n i t y Gross value Social & added at Personal factor cost services 6

2004-05 Series 1951-52

1.9

4.6

2.6

2.3

3.0

2.3

1952-53

3.1

-0.4

3.3

4.2

2.1

2.8

1953-54

7.5

6.2

3.7

1.4

3.1

6.1

1954-55

3.0

8.8

6.5

3.7

3.6

4.2

1955-56

-0.8

11.7

7.3

4.0

3.1

2.6

1956-57

5.4

9.0

7.3

1.6

3.8

5.7

1957-58

-4.1

-1.8

3.1

3.8

4.5

-1.2

1958-59

9.8

7.4

5.0

2.8

4.1

7.6

1959-60

-0.8

7.0

6.3

3.8

4.3

2.2

1960-61

7.1

10.8

8.6

2.1

4.9

7.1

1961-62

0.3

6.9

6.5

4.3

4.7

3.1

1962-63

-1.4

6.2

5.9

3.4

7.1

2.1

1963-64

2.4

10.7

7.1

3.1

6.6

5.1

1964-65

8.8

7.4

6.8

2.7

6.6

7.6

1965-66

-9.9

3.2

1.8

3.0

4.0

-3.7

1966-67

-1.2

3.7

2.6

1.8

4.6

1.0

1967-68

14.1

3.3

4.3

2.7

3.9

8.1

1968-69

0.0

5.1

4.5

4.9

4.5

2.6

1969-70

6.3

7.8

5.4

4.2

5.5

6.5

1970-71

6.3

1.6

4.9

4.2

5.5

5.0

1971-72

-1.7

2.5

2.3

5.2

4.5

1.0

1972-73

-4.4

3.4

2.2

3.9

3.3

-0.3

1973-74

6.9

0.5

4.2

2.4

2.6

4.6

1974-75

-1.2

1.0

6.0

-0.3

4.7

1.2

1975-76

12.8

6.5

9.1

6.9

3.5

9.0

1976-77

-5.2

9.3

4.5

7.9

2.8

1.2

1977-78

9.6

7.4

6.7

4.9

2.7

7.5

1978-79

2.3

7.3

8.2

7.1

4.3

5.5

1979-80

-11.9

-3.6

-0.8

1.0

7.3

-5.2

1980-81

12.8

4.5

5.6

1.9

5.0

7.2

1981-82

5.2

7.4

6.1

8.1

2.1

5.6

1982-83

0.6

0.2

5.5

9.5

7.7

2.9

1983-84

9.5

8.5

5.1

9.8

3.7

7.9

1984-85

1.6

4.4

4.8

7.5

6.9

4.0

1985-86

0.7

4.3

8.0

9.8

5.7

4.2

1986-87

0.6

4.9

6.0

10.5

7.5

4.3

1987-88

-1.1

5.8

5.1

7.3

7.2

3.5

1988-89

15.7

8.2

6.0

9.8

6.0

10.2

1989-90

1.8

8.4

7.4

12.4

7.9

6.1

1990-91

4.7

6.9

5.2

6.2

4.4

5.3

1991-92

-1.4

-0.1

2.3

10.8

2.6

1.4

1992-93

6.0

3.6

5.6

5.4

6.0

5.4

1993-94

3.1

6.1

6.9

11.2

4.5

5.7

1994-95

5.2

9.1

9.9

3.9

2.3

6.4 Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;9

A10

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 1.4A : Annual Growth Rates of Real Gross Value Added at Factor Cost by Industry of Origin (Per cent) (Contd...)

Year

Agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining and quarrying

Manufacturing, construction, electricity, gas and water supply

Trade, hotels, transport & communication

Financing, insurance, real estate and business services

1995-96

0.0

12.0

13.4

8.1

7.3

1996-97

8.9

7.2

8.1

6.2

8.1

8.0

1997-98

-1.3

3.3

7.5

11.7

8.3

4.3

1998-99

5.9

4.3

7.7

7.8

9.7

6.7

1999-00

2.8

6.2

11.4

13.0

12.0

8.0

2000-01

0.3

6.5

6.4

3.5

4.6

4.1

2001-02

5.5

2.7

8.6

6.2

4.0

5.4

2002-03

-4.9

7.1

8.3

7.2

3.8

3.9

2003-04

8.2

7.9

11.2

5.3

8.0

2004-05

1.1

10.0

9.5

7.7

6.8

7.1

2005-06

4.6

10.7

12.0

12.6

7.1

9.5

2006-07

4.6

12.7

11.6

14.0

2.8

9.6

2007-08

5.5

10.3

10.9

12.0

6.9

9.3

2008-09

0.4

4.7

7.5

12.0

12.5

6.7

2009-10

1.5

9.5

10.4

9.7

11.7

8.6

2010-11

8.3

7.6

12.2

10.0

4.2

8.9

2011-12

4.4

8.5

4.3

11.3

4.9

6.7

C o m m u n i t y Gross value Social & added at Personal factor cost services 6

Source : Central Statistics Office.

Table 1.4B : Annual Growth Rates of Real Gross Value Added at Basic Prices by Industry of Origin (Per cent) Year

Agriculture, forestry & fishing, mining and quarrying

Manufacturing, construction, electricity, gas and water supply

Trade, hotels, transport & communication

Financing, insurance, real estate and business services

C o m m u n i t y Gross value Social & added at Personal basic prices services 7

2011-12 Series 2012-13 a

1.0

2.7

9.6

8.8

4.7

2013-14 a

3.9

4.4

11.1

7.9

6.6

2014-15 a,b

1.3

6.3

8.4

13.7

9.0

7.5

Source : Central Statistics Office. a

: New Series Estimates.

: Advance Estimates.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;10

4.9

Table 1.5 : Gross Domestic Saving and Gross Capital Formation (At current prices) Year

Gross domestic saving

Gross fixed capital formation

HousePrivate Public Total hold corporate sector (2+3+4) sector sector 1

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;11

93 136 64 90 118 134 155 121 140 185 281 320 344 394 389 405 424 410 439 549 672 769 806 1083 1465 1083 1181 1413

4 215 309 195 181 213 247 318 336 325 351 572 654 750 929 1072 1085 941 944 1165 1361 1618 1689 1816 2363 3340 4192 5195 5253

5 989 1079 954 943 1105 1422 1696 1485 1450 1803 2079 2211 2613 2912 3358 4086 4526 4629 4881 6285 6821 7687 7952 11466 13482 15066 17582 20345

6 264 304 324 381 453 619 721 752 817 1045 1215 1269 1510 1794 2106 2348 2360 2320 2431 2525 2742 3245 4185 4631 4948 6401 8051 8792

7 704 741 650 587 659 765 1050 1051 965 958 1075 1285 1332 1580 1866 2072 2506 3075 3241 3667 3746 4234 4295 5044 7132 7494 7495 9043

8 968 1045 974 968 1112 1384 1771 1803 1782 2003 2290 2554 2842 3374 3972 4420 4866 5395 5672 6192 6488 7479 8480 9675 12080 13895 15546 17835

Public Private sector sector 9 2004-05 26 30 -18 -26 45 -25 37 139 83 12 63 29 97 87 90 124 64 233 41 50 302 356 88 541 938 1447 1121 109

Total (9+10)

Public Private sector sector

Series 140 143 59 -42 -9 77 198 103 -81 198 265 247 260 188 272 192 450 199 55 504 507 710 322 1097 1992 676 272 1278

165 173 40 -67 36 53 235 242 2 209 328 276 357 275 363 316 514 432 96 554 809 1066 411 1639 2929 2123 1393 1387

290 334 306 355 498 594 758 891 900 1057 1278 1298 1607 1881 2196 2472 2424 2553 2472 2575 3044 3601 4273 5172 5886 7848 9172 8901

844 884 709 545 650 842 1248 1154 884 1156 1340 1532 1592 1768 2138 2264 2956 3274 3296 4171 4253 4944 4617 6141 9124 8170 7767 10321

na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na

1133 1218 1014 901 1148 1437 2006 2045 1784 2212 2618 2830 3199 3649 4335 4736 5380 5827 5768 6746 7297 8545 8891 11314 15009 16018 16939 19222

-165 44 -95 29 -28 24 49 -87 42 -178 -58 -274 -146 -297 -377 -51 69 -361 -471 -220 -82 -380 -641 545 -874 -1070 -666 -341

968 1262 920 930 1121 1461 2056 1958 1826 2034 2560 2556 3053 3352 3958 4685 5449 5466 5297 6526 7215 8165 8249 11858 14135 14949 16273 18880

10401 11054 10850 11810 11170 11371 13547 13951 15551 16384 17942 19010 20429 23462 27367 28857 32669 38261 40512 44605 47638 50999 56214 68420 80770 86707 93422 105848 Contd....

A11

681 634 695 672 774 1041 1222 1028 986 1267 1226 1237 1519 1589 1897 2596 3161 3275 3277 4375 4531 5229 5330 8020 8677 9790 11206 13679

Total (6+7)

(` crore) Gross domestic ValuTotal Errors Adjusted product ables (12+13+14) & total at market o m i s s i o n s (15+16) prices

Gross capital formation

Economic Survey 2014-15

1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 1959-60 1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78

Public Private sector sector

Change in stocks

Year

Gross domestic saving

Gross fixed capital formation

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;12

1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

2 16482 16338 18116 19013 21972 26955 32796 36666 42111 57304 67063 82985 108603 105632 127943 151454 187142 198585 224653 284127 352114 438851 463750 545288 564161 657587 763685 868988 994396

1652 5976 24110 2398 6331 25068 2339 6135 26590 2560 9120 30692 2980 10004 34956 3254 9030 39239 4040 8950 45786 5426 11322 53414 5336 11246 58693 5932 10471 73707 8486 11943 87492 11845 11900 106730 15164 10641 134408 20304 17594 143530 19968 16709 164621 29866 11674 192994 35260 24266 246668 59153 31527 289265 62540 31194 318387 66080 29583 379790 69191 -3146 418159 87234 -9238 516847 81062 -29266 515545 76906 -36820 585374 99217 -7148 656230 129816 36372 823775 212519 74499 1050703 277208 88955 1235151 338584 152929 1485909

Public Private sector sector 6

Total (6+7)

Public Private sector sector

Total (9+10)

9638 10081 19719 11532 11032 22564 13656 13159 26815 17376 15274 32650 22276 16629 38905 24225 19780 44005 27823 22626 50449 32590 27050 59640 39723 29753 69476 41211 39993 81204 47566 48051 95617 52517 61476 113993 60013 79650 139663 70701 81765 152466 71197 106732 177929 79309 112147 191456 102134 126308 228442 105704 189342 295046 108750 219296 328046 112814 259587 372401 128621 298448 427069 138611 346055 484666 145973 349223 495196 160190 430050 590240 168143 432977 601120 190806 506672 697478 224108 706920 931028 271342 848950 1120292 339617 1004157 1343774

1100 1346 71 2006 1136 337 1676 1932 896 -1515 -493 1690 1987 -2207 2657 1974 -604 -613 1883 3553 2277 15553 9326 9079 -4740 -3076 16472 22008 16939

2118 2445 116 3747 3315 1450 3144 6383 5636 3534 9036 4324 4368 1304 7182 -3693 14676 25170 -16873 9491 -5300 26944 5831 -11050 22940 23743 63678 82381 130162

3218 3791 188 5753 4451 1787 4820 8314 6532 2019 8543 6014 6355 -903 9839 -1719 14072 24557 -14991 13044 -3023 42497 15158 -1971 18200 20667 80150 104389 147101

(` crore) Gross domestic ValuTotal Errors Adjusted product ables (12+13+14) & total at market o m i s s i o n s (15+16) prices

Gross capital formation Public Private sector sector 13

10738 12199 12878 13477 13727 13275 19382 19021 23412 19944 24562 21230 29499 25770 34522 33433 40619 35389 39696 43527 47073 57087 54207 65800 62000 84018 68494 83069 73854 113914 81283 108454 101530 140984 105091 214512 110633 202423 116367 269078 130898 293148 154164 372999 155299 355054 169269 419000 163403 455917 187730 530415 240580 770598 293350 931331 356556 1134319

na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 15519 14724 14187 13957 24572 41054 41392 49709

22937 26355 27003 38403 43356 45792 55269 67954 76008 83223 104160 120007 146018 151563 187768 189737 242514 319603 313055 385445 424046 542682 525078 602456 633277 742717 1052231 1266073 1540583

1301 24238 -707 25648 1682 28684 -5100 33303 -5833 37522 -4037 41756 -6191 49078 -8306 59648 -10960 65048 -2691 80532 -4364 99796 -998 119009 6586 152604 -4656 146907 -9331 178437 8048 197785 16047 258561 -9558 310045 23069 336125 16647 402092 12475 436521 -3848 538834 3222 528299 -31310 571146 -5534 627743 19699 762416 11809 1064041 13681 1279754 -9151 1531433

114647 125729 149642 175805 196644 229021 256611 289524 323949 368211 436893 501928 586212 673875 774545 891355 1045590 1226725 1419277 1572394 1803378 2023130 2177413 2355845 2536327 2841503 3242209 3693369 4294706 Contd....

Economic Survey 2014-15

HousePrivate Public Total hold corporate sector (2+3+4) sector sector

Change in stocks

A12

Table 1.5 : Gross Domestic Saving and Gross Capital Formation (At current prices) (Contd.)

Table 1.5: Gross Domestic Saving and Gross Capital Formation (At current prices) (Contd.) Year

Gross domestic saving

Gross fixed capital formation

HousePrivate Public Total hold corporate sector (2+3+4) sector sector 1 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Public Private sector sector

Total (6+7)

1118347 1330873 1630799 1800174 2054737

469023 417467 540955 620300 658428

248962 54280 10585 201268 111295

1836332 1802620 2182338 2621742 2824459

401326 480698 543883 609189 639157

1240347 1340401 1511889 1797881 2221905

1641673 1821099 2055772 2407069 2861062

2011-12 a 2014613 2012-13 a 2016122 2013-14 a 2065179

854125 125188 2993926 995931 169210 3181263 1231624 179132 3475935

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;13

Source : Central Statistics Office. a : New Series Estimates.

656785 2314461 2971246 698687 2437678 3136364 880771 2487085 3367856

Change in stocks

Public Private sector sector 9

Total (9+10)

(` crore) Gross domestic ValuTotal Errors Adjusted product ables (12+13+14) & total at market o m i s s i o n s (15+16) prices

Gross capital formation Public Private sector sector

40597 160937 51032 55759 48905 130266 47259 226250 56678 113918 2011-12 Series 17610 196945 20739 192980 21277 154950

201534 106791 179171 273509 170596

441923 531730 592788 656448 695835

1401284 1396160 1642155 2024131 2335823

53592 72213 116312 162836 246673

1896799 2000103 2351255 2843415 3278331

3963 -68723 11878 -1957 -77698

1900762 1931380 2363132 2841457 3200633

4987090 5630063 6477827 7784115 9009722

214555 213719 176227

674395 2511406 719426 2630658 902048 2642035

253033 275497 145451

3438835 3625580 3689535

-68738 3370097 33603 3659183 -27045 3662490

8832012 9988540 11345056

na: Not Available

Economic Survey 2014-15

A13

A14

Table 1.6: Gross Domestic Saving and Gross Capital Formation Year

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;14

Gross capital formation

Public sector

Total (2+3+4)

Public sector

Private sector

Total (6+7)

Public sector

Private sector

Total (9+10)

Public sector

Private sector

1.3 1.3 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.7 1.5 0.7 -0.5 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.6 1.6 2.5 0.8 0.3 1.2 1.8

1.6 1.6 0.4 -0.6 0.3 0.5 1.7 1.7 0.0 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.1 0.2 1.2 1.7 2.1 0.7 2.4 3.6 2.4 1.5 1.3 2.8

2.8 3.0 2.8 3.0 4.5 5.2 5.6 6.4 5.8 6.4 7.1 6.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.6 7.4 6.7 6.1 5.8 6.4 7.1 7.6 7.6 7.3 9.1 9.8 8.4 9.4

8.1 8.0 6.5 4.6 5.8 7.4 9.2 8.3 5.7 7.1 7.5 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.8 7.8 9.0 8.6 8.1 9.4 8.9 9.7 8.2 9.0 11.3 9.4 8.3 9.8 10.6

na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na

10.9 11.0 9.3 7.6 10.3 12.6 14.8 14.7 11.5 13.5 14.6 14.9 15.7 15.6 15.8 16.4 16.5 15.2 14.2 15.1 15.3 16.8 15.8 16.5 18.6 18.5 18.1 18.2 20.0

-1.6 0.4 -0.9 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.6 0.3 -1.1 -0.3 -1.4 -0.7 -1.3 -1.4 -0.2 0.2 -0.9 -1.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.7 -1.1 0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -0.7 -0.3 1.1

9.3 11.4 8.5 7.9 10.0 12.8 15.2 14.0 11.7 12.4 14.3 13.4 14.9 14.3 14.5 16.2 16.7 14.3 13.1 14.6 15.1 16.0 14.7 17.3 17.5 17.2 17.4 17.8 21.1

6.5 5.7 6.4 5.7 6.9 9.2 9.0 7.4 6.3 7.7 6.8 6.5 7.4 6.8 6.9 9.0 9.7 8.6 8.1 9.8 9.5 10.3 9.5 11.7 10.7 11.3 12.0 12.9 14.4

0.9 1.2 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4

2.1 2.8 1.8 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.1 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.0 3.9 3.8 2.9 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.5 4.1 4.8 5.6 5.0 5.2

9.5 9.8 8.8 8.0 9.9 12.5 12.5 10.6 9.3 11.0 11.6 11.6 12.8 12.4 12.3 14.2 13.9 12.1 12.0 14.1 14.3 15.1 14.1 16.8 16.7 17.4 18.8 19.2 21.0

2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2 4.1 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.3 6.4 6.8 6.7 7.4 7.6 7.7 8.1 7.2 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.8 6.4 7.4 6.8 6.1 7.4 8.6 8.3 8.4

6.8 6.7 6.0 5.0 5.9 6.7 7.8 7.5 6.2 5.8 6.0 6.8 6.5 6.7 6.8 7.2 7.7 8.0 8.0 8.2 7.9 8.3 7.6 7.4 8.8 8.6 8.0 8.5 8.8

2004-05 Series 9.3 0.2 9.5 0.3 9.0 -0.2 8.2 -0.2 10.0 0.4 12.2 -0.2 13.1 0.3 12.9 1.0 11.5 0.5 12.2 0.1 12.8 0.4 13.4 0.2 13.9 0.5 14.4 0.4 14.5 0.3 15.3 0.4 14.9 0.2 14.1 0.6 14.0 0.1 13.9 0.1 13.6 0.6 14.7 0.7 15.1 0.2 14.1 0.8 15.0 1.2 16.0 1.7 16.6 1.2 16.8 0.1 17.2 1.0

ValuTotal ables (12+13+14)

Errors Adjusted & OmiTotal s s i o n s (15+16)

Contd....

Economic Survey 2014-15

HousePrivate hold corporate sector sector 1

(As per cent of GDP at current market prices) Gross fixed capital formation Change in stocks

Gross domestic saving

Table 1.6: Gross Domestic Saving and Gross Capital Formation (Contd.) Year

HousePrivate hold corporate sector sector 1

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;15

Gross capital formation

Public sector

Total (2+3+4)

Public sector

Private sector

Total (6+7)

Public sector

Private sector

Total (9+10)

Public sector

Private sector

ValuTotal ables (12+13+14)

Errors Adjusted & OmiTotal s s i o n s (15+16)

13.0 12.1 10.8 11.2 11.8 12.8 12.7 13.0 15.6 15.3 16.5 18.5 15.7 16.5 17.0 17.9 16.2 15.8 18.1 19.5 21.7 21.3 23.1 22.2 23.1 23.6 23.5 23.2 22.4 23.6

1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.4 2.6 3.0 2.6 3.4 3.4 4.8 4.4 4.2 3.8 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.9 4.6 6.6 7.5 7.9 9.4 7.4

5.0 4.1 5.2 5.1 3.9 3.5 3.9 3.5 2.8 2.7 2.4 1.8 2.6 2.2 1.3 2.3 2.6 2.2 1.9 -0.2 -0.5 -1.3 -1.6 -0.3 1.3 2.3 2.4 3.6 5.0 1.0

19.9 17.8 17.5 17.8 17.1 17.8 18.4 18.1 20.0 20.0 21.3 22.9 21.3 21.3 21.7 23.6 23.6 22.4 24.2 23.2 25.5 23.7 24.8 25.9 29.0 32.4 33.4 34.6 36.8 32.0

9.2 9.1 9.9 11.3 10.6 10.8 11.3 12.3 11.2 10.9 10.5 10.2 10.5 9.2 8.9 9.8 8.6 7.7 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.0 8.5

8.8 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.6 8.8 9.3 9.2 10.9 11.0 12.2 13.6 12.1 13.8 12.6 12.1 15.4 15.5 16.5 16.5 17.1 16.0 18.3 17.1 17.8 21.8 23.0 23.4 24.9 23.8

17.9 17.9 18.6 19.8 19.2 19.7 20.6 21.4 22.1 21.9 22.7 23.8 22.6 23.0 21.5 21.8 24.1 23.1 23.7 23.7 24.0 22.7 25.1 23.7 24.5 28.7 30.3 31.3 32.9 32.3

1.1 0.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.9

1.9 0.1 2.1 1.7 0.6 1.2 2.2 1.7 1.0 2.1 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.9 -0.4 1.4 2.1 -1.2 0.6 -0.3 1.3 0.3 -0.5 0.9 0.8 2.0 2.2 3.0 3.2 1.0

3.0 0.1 3.3 2.3 0.8 1.9 2.9 2.0 0.5 2.0 1.2 1.1 -0.1 1.3 -0.2 1.3 2.0 -1.1 0.8 -0.2 2.1 0.7 -0.1 0.7 0.7 2.5 2.8 3.4 4.0 1.9

10.2 9.2 11.0 11.9 10.7 11.5 11.9 12.5 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.2 9.5 9.1 9.7 8.6 7.8 7.4 7.3 7.6 7.1 7.2 6.4 6.6 7.4 7.9 8.3 8.9 9.4

10.7 8.9 10.8 10.1 9.3 10.0 11.5 10.9 11.8 13.1 13.1 14.3 12.3 14.7 12.2 13.5 17.5 14.3 17.1 16.3 18.4 16.3 17.8 18.0 18.7 23.8 25.2 26.4 28.1 24.8

na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3

21.0 18.0 21.8 22.0 20.0 21.5 23.5 23.5 22.6 23.8 23.9 24.9 22.5 24.2 21.3 23.2 26.1 22.1 24.5 23.5 26.8 24.1 25.6 25.0 26.1 32.5 34.3 35.9 38.0 35.5

-0.6 1.1 -2.9 -3.0 -1.8 -2.4 -2.9 -3.4 -0.7 -1.0 -0.2 1.1 -0.7 -1.2 0.9 1.5 -0.8 1.6 1.1 0.7 -0.2 0.1 -1.3 -0.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -1.2

20.4 19.2 18.9 19.1 18.2 19.1 20.6 20.1 21.9 22.8 23.7 26.0 21.8 23.0 22.2 24.7 25.3 23.7 25.6 24.2 26.6 24.3 24.2 24.8 26.8 32.8 34.7 35.7 38.1 34.3 Contd....

A15

Economic Survey 2014-15

1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

(As per cent of GDP at current market prices) Gross fixed capital formation Change in stocks

Gross domestic savings

A16

Table 1.6: Gross Domestic Saving and Gross Capital Formation (Contd.) Year

Gross capital formation

Public sector

Total (2+3+4)

Public sector

Private sector

Total (6+7)

Public sector

Private sector

Total (9+10)

Public sector

Private sector

2.0 2.9 1.3

2.8 3.5 1.9

9.2 8.4 7.7

25.4 26.0 25.9

1.8 2.1 2.7

36.3 36.5 36.4

0.2 0.0 -0.9

36.5 36.5 35.5

2.2 1.9 1.4

2.4 2.1 1.6

7.6 7.2 8.0

28.4 26.3 23.3

2.9 2.8 1.3

38.9 36.3 32.5

-0.8 0.3 -0.2

38.2 36.6 32.3

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

25.2 23.1 22.8

8.4 8.0 7.3

0.2 2.6 1.2

33.7 33.7 31.3

8.4 7.8 7.1

23.3 23.1 24.7

2011-12 a 2012-13 a 2013-14 a

22.8 20.2 18.2

9.7 10.0 10.9

1.4 1.7 1.6

33.9 31.8 30.6

7.4 7.0 7.8

26.2 24.4 21.9

Source : Central Statistics Office. a: New Series Estimates. na: Not Available

31.7 0.8 30.9 0.6 31.8 0.6 2011-12 Series 33.6 0.2 31.4 0.2 29.7 0.2

ValuTotal ables (12+13+14)

Errors Adjusted & OmiTotal s s i o n s (15+16)

Economic Survey 2014-15

HousePrivate hold corporate sector sector 1

(As per cent of GDP at current market prices) Gross fixed capital formation Change in stocks

Gross domestic savings

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;16

Table 1.7A: Net State Domestic Product at Current Prices (2004-05 Series) As on 01.08.2014 Sl. No.

(` ` Crore)

State\UT 2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

Andhra Pradesh (undivided) 201303 229367 269120 325955 384005 427560 524695 Arunachal Pradesh 3188 3439 3765 4407 5199 6840 8352 Assam 47181 52440 57033 62342 71478 85253 100627 Bihar 70167 74144 91331 102853 129690 148151 185745 Chhattisgarh 41387 45664 57536 69348 82809 84196 102912 Goa 10999 12488 14394 17045 22149 25224 29387 Gujarat 172265 206440 240733 281579 314485 371187 454853 Haryana 86222 97903 116104 136584 164636 203855 237163 Himachal Pradesh 21189 23743 26247 28873 33115 39141 46216 Jammu & Kashmir 23292 25278 27652 30720 34290 38718 46740 Jharkhand 53056 53358 58512 74388 76234 87112 108652 Karnataka 148729 174911 203819 243028 278534 300747 368338 Kerala 104776 120269 135104 153981 180134 206070 233177 Madhya Pradesh 99940 109612 127663 142917 175503 202225 232794 Maharashtra 370023 437103 526910 619884 677781 770794 950771 Manipur 4603 5138 5504 6048 6612 7372 8020 Meghalaya 5846 6461 7701 8619 10341 11122 12852 Mizoram 2400 2664 2944 3411 4154 4717 5772 Nagaland 5421 6116 6728 7477 8784 9711 10850 Odisha 67987 73550 87921 111109 127516 135837 164760 Punjab 86108 95902 113013 135706 154827 176187 202025 Rajasthan 112636 125333 151428 172250 203939 233767 300907 Sikkim 1511 1733 1871 2139 2796 5463 6636 Tamil Nadu 193645 228846 276711 313812 359391 430013 527912 Tripura 8170 9040 9981 10808 12509 14162 16573 Uttar Pradesh 231029 258643 296767 335810 392771 463583 532218 Uttarakhand 22288 26968 32670 40279 48616 61138 72970 West Bengal 190029 209726 238629 273557 310530 362517 421231 Andaman & Nicobar Islands 1633 1848 2296 2715 3168 3742 3939 Chandigarh 7610 9179 11074 12327 13745 15739 17883 Delhi 94717 109127 128276 149519 178822 205376 241234 Puducherry 5033 7135 7429 8179 8908 11085 11786 All-India NDP(2004-05 base) 2651573 3026782 3534547 4097390 4738369 5449104 6488641 Source: For Sl. No. 1-32 — Directorate of Economics & Statistics of respective State Governments, and for All-India — Central Statistics Office na : Not released as on August 01, 2014 Notes : 1. Estimates for the years 2004-05 to 2012-13 have been discussed by CSO with the state DES 2. State Estimates have not yet been compiled on 2011-12 base

594117 9632 112126 222442 123333 38061 518560 273192 51885 55174 115975 406821 272065 276789 1064689 9746 15144 6230 12788 176822 227387 361067 8029 602851 19690 609924 85602 480376 4500 20259 282717 13034 7511795

678524 10941 126149 271439 137756 37035 584367 310990 58489 62449 129402 462395 309332 333010 1196754 10919 16070 7556 14441 210683 251852 410834 9432 671728 22453 693539 93730 557092 5031 21998 332521 14771 8372744

770225 12468 146199 315529 154488 na na 350167 64995 70874 150333 516516 na 406055 1333684 na 18504 na 16328 235166 281128 459322 11137 771762 na 789483 106512 635784 5672 25489 387097 19754 9299345

A—17

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

2013-14

A17

2005-06

(3)

(2)

Economic Survey 2014-15

2004-05 (1)

A18

Table 1.7B : Growth of Net State Domestic Product at Current Prices (2004-05 Series) (Percentage change over previous year) As on 01.08.2014 (1)

A—18

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

State\UT (2)

Andhra Pradesh (undivided) Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal Andaman & Nicobar Islands Chandigarh Delhi Puducherry

All-India NDP(2004-05 base)

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

13.9 7.9 11.1 5.7 10.3 13.5 19.8 13.5 12.1 8.5 0.6 17.6 14.8 9.7 18.1 11.6 10.5 11.0 12.8 8.2 11.4 11.3 14.7 18.2 10.6 12.0 21.0 10.4 13.2 20.6 15.2 41.8

17.3 9.5 8.8 23.2 26.0 15.3 16.6 18.6 10.5 9.4 9.7 16.5 12.3 16.5 20.5 7.1 19.2 10.5 10.0 19.5 17.8 20.8 8.0 20.9 10.4 14.7 21.1 13.8 24.2 20.6 17.5 4.1

21.1 17.1 9.3 12.6 20.5 18.4 17.0 17.6 10.0 11.1 27.1 19.2 14.0 11.9 17.6 9.9 11.9 15.9 11.1 26.4 20.1 13.8 14.3 13.4 8.3 13.2 23.3 14.6 18.2 11.3 16.6 10.1

17.8 18.0 14.7 26.1 19.4 29.9 11.7 20.5 14.7 11.6 2.5 14.6 17.0 22.8 9.3 9.3 20.0 21.8 17.5 14.8 14.1 18.4 30.7 14.5 15.7 17.0 20.7 13.5 16.7 11.5 19.6 8.9

11.3 31.6 19.3 14.2 1.7 13.9 18.0 23.8 18.2 12.9 14.3 8.0 14.4 15.2 13.7 11.5 7.6 13.6 10.6 6.5 13.8 14.6 95.4 19.7 13.2 18.0 25.8 16.7 18.1 14.5 14.8 24.4

22.7 22.1 18.0 25.4 22.2 16.5 22.5 16.3 18.1 20.7 24.7 22.5 13.2 15.1 23.3 8.8 15.6 22.4 11.7 21.3 14.7 28.7 21.5 22.8 17.0 14.8 19.4 16.2 5.3 13.6 17.5 6.3

13.2 15.3 11.4 19.8 19.8 29.5 14.0 15.2 12.3 18.0 6.7 10.4 16.7 18.9 12.0 21.5 17.8 7.9 17.9 7.3 12.6 20.0 21.0 14.2 18.8 14.6 17.3 14.0 14.2 13.3 17.2 10.6

14.2 13.6 12.5 22.0 11.7 -2.7 12.7 13.8 12.7 13.2 11.6 13.7 13.7 20.3 12.4 12.0 6.1 21.3 12.9 19.1 10.8 13.8 17.5 11.4 14.0 13.7 9.5 16.0 11.8 8.6 17.6 13.3

13.5 14.0 15.9 16.2 12.1 na na 12.6 11.1 13.5 16.2 11.7 na 21.9 11.4 na 15.1 na 13.1 11.6 11.6 11.8 18.1 14.9 na 13.8 13.6 14.1 12.7 15.9 16.4 33.7

14.2

16.8

15.9

15.6

15.0

19.1

15.8

11.5

11.1

Source : For Sl. No. 1-32 — Directorate of Economics & Statistics of respective State Governments, and for All-India — Central Statistics Office na : Not released as on August 01, 2014 Notes : 1. Estimates for the years 2004-05 to 2012-13 have been discussed by CSO with the state DES 2. State Estimates have not yet been compiled on 2011-12 base

Economic Survey 2014-15

Sl. No.

Table 1.8A: Per Capita Net State Domestic Product at Current Prices (2004-05 Series) As on 01.08.2014 (` ) Sl. No. (1)

A—19

(2) Andhra Pradesh (undivided) Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal Andaman & Nicobar Islands Chandigarh Delhi Puducherry

All-India Per Capita NNI(2004-05 base)

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

2013-14 (12)

25321 26721 16782 7914 18559 76968 32021 37972 33348 21734 18510 26882 31871 15442 36077 18640 24086 24662 30441 17650 33103 18565 26690 30062 24394 12950 24726 22649 40921 74173 63877 48302

28539 28171 18396 8223 20117 84721 37780 42309 36949 23240 18326 31239 36276 16631 41965 20395 26284 26698 33792 18846 36199 20275 30252 35243 26668 14221 29441 24720 44754 84993 72208 67205

33135 30132 19737 9967 24800 94882 43395 49261 40393 25059 19789 35981 40419 19028 49831 21423 30952 28764 36568 22237 41883 24055 32199 42288 29081 16013 35111 27823 53778 97568 83275 68673

39727 34466 21290 11051 29385 108708 50016 56917 43966 27448 24789 42419 45700 20935 57760 23090 34229 32488 39985 27735 49380 26882 36448 47606 31111 17785 42619 31567 61430 102980 95241 74201

46345 39726 24099 13728 34360 135966 55068 67405 49903 30212 25046 48084 53046 25278 62234 24764 40583 38582 46207 31416 55315 31279 46983 54137 35587 20422 50657 35487 69177 108486 111756 79306

51114 51068 28383 15457 34366 149164 64097 82037 58402 33650 28223 51364 60226 28651 69765 27093 43142 42715 50263 33029 61805 35254 90749 64338 39815 23671 62757 41039 78936 117371 125936 96860

62148 60935 33087 19111 41165 168024 77485 93852 68297 40089 34721 62251 67652 32453 84858 28931 49261 50956 55582 39537 69582 44644 108972 78473 46050 26698 73819 47245 80558 126651 145129 101072

69742 68667 36415 22582 48366 211570 87175 106358 75185 46734 36554 68053 78387 37979 93748 34518 50316 53624 63781 41876 76895 52735 130127 89050 54077 30071 85372 53383 89642 136883 166883 103149

78958 76218 40475 27202 52983 200514 96976 119158 83899 52250 40238 76578 88527 44989 103991 36937 52090 63413 70274 49241 84526 59097 151395 98628 60963 33616 92191 61352 97687 141926 192587 114034

88876 84869 46354 31229 58297 na na 132089 92300 58593 46131 84709 na 54030 114392 na 58522 na 77529 54241 92638 65098 176491 112664 na 37630 103349 69413 107418 156951 219979 148784

24143

27131

31206

35825

40775

46249

54021

61855

67839

74380

A19

Source : For Sl. No. 1-32 — Directorate of Economics & Statistics of respective State Governments, and for All-India — Central Statistics Office na : Not released as on August 01, 2014 Notes : 1. Population as per the Provisional figures released by RGI for Census 2011 have been used by the States of Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Odisha, Delhi and Puducherry 2. Estimates for the years 2004-05 to 2012-13 have been discussed by CSO with the state DES 3. State Estimates have not yet been compiled on 2011-12 base

Economic Survey 2014-15

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

State\UT

A20

Table 1.8B: Growth of Per Capita Net State Domestic Product at Current Prices (2004-05 Series) (Percentage change over previous year) As on 01.08.2014 (1)

A—20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

State\UT (2)

All-India Per Capita NNI(2004-05 base)

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

2013-14 (12)

12.7 5.4 9.6 3.9 8.4 10.1 18.0 11.4 10.8 6.9 -1.0 16.2 13.8 7.7 16.3 9.4 9.1 8.3 11.0 6.8 9.4 9.2 13.3 17.2 9.3 9.8 19.1 9.1 9.4 14.6 13.0 39.1

16.1 7.0 7.3 21.2 23.3 12.0 14.9 16.4 9.3 7.8 8.0 15.2 11.4 14.4 18.7 5.0 17.8 7.7 8.2 18.0 15.7 18.6 6.4 20.0 9.0 12.6 19.3 12.6 20.2 14.8 15.3 2.2

19.9 14.4 7.9 10.9 18.5 14.6 15.3 15.5 8.8 9.5 25.3 17.9 13.1 10.0 15.9 7.8 10.6 12.9 9.3 24.7 17.9 11.8 13.2 12.6 7.0 11.1 21.4 13.5 14.2 5.5 14.4 8.0

16.7 15.3 13.2 24.2 16.9 25.1 10.1 18.4 13.5 10.1 1.0 13.4 16.1 20.7 7.7 7.2 18.6 18.8 15.6 13.3 12.0 16.4 28.9 13.7 14.4 14.8 18.9 12.4 12.6 5.3 17.3 6.9

10.3 28.6 17.8 12.6 0.0 9.7 16.4 21.7 17.0 11.4 12.7 6.8 13.5 13.3 12.1 9.4 6.3 10.7 8.8 5.1 11.7 12.7 93.2 18.8 11.9 15.9 23.9 15.6 14.1 8.2 12.7 22.1

21.6 19.3 16.6 23.6 19.8 12.6 20.9 14.4 16.9 19.1 23.0 21.2 12.3 13.3 21.6 6.8 14.2 19.3 10.6 19.7 12.6 26.6 20.1 22.0 15.7 12.8 17.6 15.1 2.1 7.9 15.2 4.3

12.2 12.7 10.1 18.2 17.5 25.9 12.5 13.3 10.1 16.6 5.3 9.3 15.9 17.0 10.5 19.3 2.1 5.2 14.8 5.9 10.5 18.1 19.4 13.5 17.4 12.6 15.7 13.0 11.3 8.1 15.0 2.1

13.2 11.0 11.1 20.5 9.5 -5.2 11.2 12.0 11.6 11.8 10.1 12.5 12.9 18.5 10.9 7.0 3.5 18.3 10.2 17.6 9.9 12.1 16.3 10.8 12.7 11.8 8.0 14.9 9.0 3.7 15.4 10.6

12.6 11.4 14.5 14.8 10.0 na na 10.9 10.0 12.1 14.6 10.6 na 20.1 10.0 na 12.3 na 10.3 10.2 9.6 10.2 16.6 14.2 na 11.9 12.1 13.1 10.0 10.6 14.2 30.5

12.4

15.0

14.8

13.8

13.4

16.8

14.5

9.7

9.6

Source : For Sl. No. 1-32 — Directorate of Economics & Statistics of respective State Governments, and for All-India — Central Statistics Office na : Not released as on August 01, 2014 Notes : 1. Population as per the provisional figures released by RGI for Census 2011 have been used by the States of Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Odisha, Delhi and Puducherry 2. Estimates for the years 2004-05 to 2012-13 have been discussed by CSO with the state DES 3. State Estimates have not yet been compiled on 2011-12 base

Economic Survey 2014-15

Sl. No.

Economic Survey 2014-15

A21

Table 1.9 : Index Numbers of Agricultural Production (Base : Triennium ending 2007-08= 100) We i g h t 2007-08 1 A.

Foodgrains (a) Cereals Rice Wheat (b) Coarse Cerealsa Maize (c) Pulses b Gram Tur Non-foodgrains (a) Oilseeds Totalc Groundnut Rapeseed and Mustard (b) Fibres Cotton Jute Mesta (c) Plantation Crops Tea Coffee Rubber (d) Others Sugarcane Tobacco Potato

C. All Commodities

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 2013-14*

50.7 41.7 16.9 18.0 6.9 2.9 8.9 3.5 1.7 49.3 13.2 4.1 3.6

105.4 105.5 102.9 105.4 112.1 116.6 105.1 97.5 113.5 108.6 108.6 125.0 81.8

106.5 107.4 105.6 108.2 110.0 121.4 102.0 119.8 83.6 107.5 100.8 97.6 100.9

100.6 100.2 94.8 108.3 92.3 102.9 102.3 126.8 91.0 104.9 88.9 73.9 92.6

114.3 111.1 102.2 116.5 118.9 133.7 129.3 139.5 105.6 128.0 116.8 112.5 114.6

118.8 118.1 112.1 127.2 114.8 133.9 121.3 130.7 98.0 131.2 106.5 94.8 92.6

119.4 117.3 112.0 125.4 109.2 136.9 129.2 149.9 111.6 129.1 107.4 63.9 112.5

123.1 120.6 113.4 128.6 117.3 149.8 135.1 167.6 121.5 135.4 119.3 131.7 111.6

4.4 0.7 0.0

115.9 100.5 105.5

99.7 94.7 77.9

107.5 110.4 62.5

147.7 98.4 65.1

157.6 105.6 70.6

153.2 101.7 62.8

164.2 108.0 63.8

0.3 0.6 1.9

95.9 95.4 99.8

98.8 95.5 104.5

100.7 105.4 100.5

98.2 110.0 104.2

99.2 114.3 109.3

99.2 115.8 110.5

na na na

9.9 0.4 3.6

106.1 93.0 114.6

86.8 115.1 138.4

89.0 141.6 147.2

104.3 170.6 170.4

110.0 160.0 166.9

103.9 139.8 182.5

106.6 na na

100.0

107.0

102.7

121.0

125.2

124.2

129.2

Source : Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation. * : 4th Advance Estimates a : Includes maize, jowar, ragi, bajra, small millets and barley b : Includes tur, urad, moong, gram, lentils and other pulses c : Includes groundnut, rapeseed & mustard, sesamum, linseed, castorseed, nigerseed, safflower, sunflower and soyabean. na : Not Available

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;21

A22

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 1.10 : Index Numbers of Area Under Principal Crops (Base : Triennium ending 2007-08= 100) 2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

101.2 100.9 100.3 101.9 99.9 103.2 102.3 103.0 102.8 103.2 98.5 101.2 87.9

100.9 101.6 104.0 100.9 97.9 103.9 97.3 107.8 93.2 106.1 101.8 99.2 95.0

100.0 99.5 95.7 103.5 98.5 105.0 102.2 111.6 95.7 104.3 94.8 88.1 84.3

104.4 101.8 97.9 105.7 101.2 108.7 116.4 125.5 120.5 114.0 101.0 94.2 104.1

104.0 103.3 100.5 108.6 96.4 111.6 107.5 113.4 110.6 116.5 97.5 84.7 88.9

102.0 101.7 97.6 109.1 92.1 110.2 103.8 116.4 107.5 116.2 97.5 76.0 96.0

106.8 105.3 100.3 113.4 96.4 119.8 113.5 139.6 107.1 118.7 105.7 88.9 101.1

103.7 103.2 102.9

103.6 99.6 81.1

111.6 102.8 66.3

123.8 98.1 69.4

134.1 102.5 67.3

131.9 98.4 60.4

129.2 97.8 55.8

98.2 113.2 103.1

98.2 115.0 107.5

98.2 116.5 111.4

98.2 118.0 115.5

98.2 119.5 119.3

98.2 121.1 123.0

na na na

105.3 95.9 105.0

91.9 107.6 123.6

86.9 122.0 124.0

101.7 135.3 125.9

104.9 128.3 128.9

104.1 117.3 134.6

104.4 na na

All Commodities

102.2

103.5

102.1

109.1

110.2

109.0

112.6

1 A.

2012-13 2013-14* 8

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;22

Economic Survey 2014-15

A23

Table 1.11 : Index Numbers of Yield of Principal Crops (Base : Triennium ending 2007-08= 100) 2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

104.2 104.5 102.6 103.4 112.3 113.0 102.7 94.7 110.4 105.2 110.3 123.5 93.1

105.5 105.7 101.5 107.2 112.4 116.8 104.9 111.1 89.7 101.4 99.0 98.4 106.3

100.6 100.7 99.1 104.7 93.8 97.9 100.1 113.7 95.1 100.6 93.8 83.8 109.9

109.5 109.1 104.4 110.2 117.5 122.9 111.1 111.2 87.6 112.2 115.7 119.4 110.2

114.8 115.3 111.5 117.2 119.3 119.9 112.8 115.3 88.6 112.6 109.3 111.9 104.1

117.0 115.4 114.7 114.9 118.6 124.2 124.5 128.7 103.8 111.1 110.1 84.1 117.3

115.3 114.5 113.0 113.4 121.6 125.0 119.1 120.1 113.5 114.1 112.9 148.0 110.4

111.7 97.4 102.5

96.2 95.1 96.0

96.4 107.4 94.3

119.4 100.4 93.8

117.5 103.0 104.9

116.1 103.3 104.0

127.1 110.4 114.3

97.7 84.3 96.8

100.6 83.1 97.3

102.5 90.5 90.2

100.0 93.2 90.2

101.1 95.7 91.6

101.1 95.7 89.9

na na na

100.8 97.0 109.1

94.4 107.0 112.0

102.4 116.1 118.7

102.5 126.1 135.3

104.8 124.6 129.5

99.8 119.2 135.5

102.2 na na

All Commodities

104.7

103.4

100.6

110.9

113.6

113.9

114.7

1 A.

2012-13 2013-14*

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;23

A24

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 1.12 : Production of Major Crops (Million tonnes)

Group/Commodity 1 Foodgrainsa Kharif Rabi Cerealsb Kharif Rabi Pulses c Kharif Rabi Rice Kharif Rabi Wheat Jowar Kharif Rabi Maize Bajra Gram Tur Oilseedsd Kharif Rabi Groundnut Kharif Rabi Rapeseed and Mustard Sugarcane Cotton e Jute and Mestaf Jute Mesta Plantation Crops Tea Coffee Rubber Potato

1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14* 2

108.4 68.9 39.5 96.6 65.0 31.6 11.8 3.9 7.9 42.2 39.5 2.7 23.8 8.1 5.8 2.3 7.5 8.0 5.2 1.9 9.6 7.0 2.6 6.1 na na 2.0 126.4 4.8 6.2 4.9 1.3

129.6 77.7 51.9 119.0 73.9 45.1 10.6 3.8 6.8 53.6 50.1 3.5 36.3 10.4 7.5 2.9 7.0 5.3 4.3 2.0 9.4 5.0 4.4 5.0 3.7 1.3 2.3 154.2 7.0 8.2 6.5 1.7

176.4 99.4 77.0 162.1 94.0 68.1 14.3 5.4 8.9 74.3 66.3 8.0 55.1 11.7 8.3 3.4 9.0 6.9 5.4 2.4 18.6 9.8 8.8 7.5 5.1 2.4 5.2 241.0 9.8 9.2 7.9 1.3

196.8 102.1 94.7 185.7 97.6 88.1 11.0 4.4 6.6 85.0 72.8 12.2 69.7 7.5 4.5 3.0 12.0 6.8 3.9 2.2 18.4 11.9 6.5 6.4 4.9 1.5 4.2 296.0 9.5 10.5 9.3 1.2

218.1 104.0 114.1 203.4 99.7 103.7 14.7 4.2 10.5 89.1 75.9 13.2 80.8 6.7 2.8 3.9 16.7 6.5 7.5 2.5 24.9 15.7 9.2 5.4 3.8 1.6 6.6 292.3 24.0 11.8 11.2 0.6

244.5 120.9 123.6 226.3 113.8 112.5 18.2 7.1 11.1 96.0 80.7 15.3 86.9 7.0 3.4 3.6 21.7 10.4 8.2 2.9 32.5 21.9 10.6 8.3 6.6 1.6 8.2 342.4 33.0 10.6 10.0 0.6

259.3 131.3 128.0 240.8 125.2 115.6 17.1 6.1 11.0 105.3 92.8 12.5 93.5 6.0 3.3 2.7 21.8 10.3 7.7 2.7 29.8 20.7 9.1 7.0 5.1 1.8 6.6 361.0 35.2 11.4 10.7 0.7

257.1 128.1 129.1 238.8 122.2 116.6 18.3 5.9 12.4 105.2 92.4 12.9 93.5 5.3 2.8 2.4 22.3 8.7 8.8 3.0 30.9 20.8 10.2 4.7 3.2 1.5 8.0 341.2 34.2 10.9 10.3 0.6

264.8 129.2 135.5 245.5 123.2 122.3 19.3 6.0 13.3 106.5 91.7 14.9 95.9 5.4 2.3 3.1 24.4 9.2 9.9 3.3 32.9 22.4 10.5 9.7 7.8 1.9 8.0 350.0 36.7 11.6 11.0 0.6

0.4 0.1 0.1 4.8

0.6 0.1 0.2 9.7

0.7 0.2 0.3 15.2

0.8 0.3 0.6 22.5

1.0 0.3 0.8 36.6

1.0 0.3 0.8 42.3

1.0 0.3 0.8 46.6

1.0 0.3 0.9 45.3

1.0 0.3 0.9 41.5

Source : Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation. * : 4th Advance Estimates a : Includes cereals, coarse cereals and pulses b : Includes rice, wheat and coarse cereals c : Includes tur, urad, moong, gram, lentils and other pulses d : Includes groundnut, rapeseed & mustard, sesamum, linseed, castorseed, nigerseed, safflower, sunflower and soyabean. e : Bales of 170 Kgs. f : Bales of 180 Kgs. na : Not Available

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;24

Economic Survey 2014-15

A25

Table 1.13 : Gross Area under Major Crops (Million hectares) Group/Commodity 1 Foodgrains a Kharif Rabi Cerealsb Kharif Rabi Pulses c Kharif Rabi Rice Kharif Rabi Wheat Jowar Kharif Rabi Maize Bajra Gram Tur Oilseedsd Kharif Rabi Groundnut Kharif Rabi Rapeseed and Mustard Sugarcane Cotton e Jute and Mestaf Jute Mesta Plantation Crops Te a Coffee Rubber Potato

1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14* 2

124.3 82.3 42.0 101.8 72.9 28.9 22.6 9.5 13.1 37.6 36.0 1.6 18.2 17.4 10.9 6.5 5.8 12.9 7.8 2.7 16.6 10.8 5.8 7.3 na na 3.3 2.6 7.6 1.1 0.8 0.3

126.7 83.2 43.5 104.2 72.8 31.4 22.5 10.4 12.1 40.1 38.4 1.7 22.3 15.8 10.2 5.6 6.0 11.7 6.6 2.8 17.6 10.2 7.4 6.8 5.9 0.9 4.1 2.7 7.8 1.3 0.9 0.4

127.8 80.8 47.0 103.2 69.3 33.9 24.7 11.5 13.2 42.7 39.7 3.0 24.2 14.4 8.6 5.8 5.9 10.5 7.5 3.6 24.1 14.0 10.1 8.3 6.8 1.5 5.8 3.7 7.4 1.0 0.8 0.2

121.0 75.2 45.8 100.7 64.6 36.1 20.3 10.6 9.7 44.7 40.7 4.0 25.7 9.9 4.9 5.0 6.6 9.8 5.2 3.6 22.8 15.8 7.0 6.6 5.7 0.9 4.5 4.3 8.6 1.0 0.8 0.2

121.3 69.5 51.8 98.0 58.9 39.1 23.3 10.6 12.7 41.9 37.6 4.3 28.5 7.7 3.2 4.5 8.3 8.9 8.2 3.5 26.0 18.0 8.0 5.5 4.6 0.9 5.6 4.2 10.1 0.9 0.8 0.1

126.7 72.4 54.3 100.3 60.1 40.2 26.4 12.3 14.1 42.9 38.0 4.8 29.1 7.4 3.1 4.3 8.6 9.6 9.2 4.4 27.2 18.2 9.0 5.9 5.0 0.9 6.9 4.9 11.2 0.9 0.8 0.1

124.8 72.1 52.7 100.3 60.9 39.4 24.5 11.2 13.3 44.0 40.1 3.9 29.9 7.4 3.1 4.3 8.8 8.8 8.3 4.0 26.3 18.4 7.9 5.3 4.3 0.9 5.9 5.0 12.2 0.9 0.8 0.1

120.8 67.7 53.1 97.5 57.7 39.8 23.3 10.0 13.3 42.8 38.9 3.8 30.0 6.2 2.4 3.8 8.7 7.3 8.5 3.9 26.5 18.3 8.2 4.7 3.9 0.8 6.4 5.0 12.0 0.9 0.8 0.1

126.0 69.3 56.8 100.8 59.1 41.7 25.2 10.1 15.1 43.9 39.4 4.5 31.2 5.8 2.2 3.6 9.4 7.9 10.2 3.9 28.5 20.0 8.6 5.5 4.6 1.0 6.7 5.0 11.7 0.9 0.8 0.1

0.4 0.1 0.2 0.5

0.4 0.2 0.3 0.7

0.4 0.3 0.5 0.9

0.5 0.3 0.6 1.2

0.6 0.4 0.7 1.8

0.6 0.4 0.7 1.9

0.6 0.4 0.8 2.0

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;25

(Kg. / hectare)

1 Foodgrainsa

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;26

Kharif Rabi Cerealsb Kharif Rabi Pulses c Kharif Rabi Rice Kharif Rabi Wheat Jowar Kharif Rabi Maize Bajra Gram Tur Oilseeds d Kharif Rabi Groundnut Kharif Rabi Rapeseed and Mustard Sugarcane Cotton e Jute and Mestaf Jute Mesta Plantation Crops Tea Coffee Rubber Potato (tonnes/hect.)

2012-13 2013-14 *

1970-71

1980-81

1990-91

2000-01

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

872 837 942 949 892 1093 524 410 607 1123 1100 1625 1307 466 533 354 1279 622 663 709 579 649 449 834 na na 594 48 106 1032 1186 684

1023 933 1195 1142 1015 1434 473 361 571 1336 1303 2071 1630 660 737 520 1159 458 657 689 532 492 588 736 629 1444 560 58 152 1130 1245 828

1380 1231 1635 1571 1357 2010 578 471 672 1740 1670 2671 2281 814 969 582 1518 658 712 673 771 698 872 904 751 1611 904 65 225 1634 1833 988

1626 1357 2067 1844 1512 2438 544 417 604 1901 1788 3042 2708 764 938 594 1822 688 744 618 810 757 929 977 861 1756 935 69 190 1867 2026 1078

1756 1522 2091 2020 1706 2526 612 449 751 2131 2024 3130 2708 844 992 727 1912 886 845 650 916 836 1055 866 689 1880 1095 69 421 2170 2342 1210

1860 1644 2174 2151 1846 2645 625 557 688 2202 2095 3147 2802 1021 1176 894 2335 1042 762 826 1115 1154 1034 1459 1386 1857 1001 69 467 2101 2260 1219

1909 1654 2263 2183 1841 2721 659 478 804 2178 2081 3009 2907 962 1055 904 2414 1015 895 671 1007 961 1097 1163 1063 1764 1143 65 403 2071 2207 1141

1798 1496 2202 2075 1693 2649 630 397 823 2125 2019 3053 2839 860 853 865 2024 731 915 711 958 875 1146 991 835 1830 1183 70 403 2349 2492 1121

1930 1669 2278 2256 1893 2800 691 578 790 2239 2121 3176 2989 949 1119 827 2540 1079 895 655 1193 1203 1174 1411 1335 1846 1185 70 499 2192 2329 1115

2078 1822 2430 2401 2057 2933 699 541 831 2393 2312 3224 3131 810 1072 623 2478 1171 928 662 1133 1123 1155 1323 1188 1938 1121 70 491 2268 2389 1248

2128 1892 2431 2449 2116 2932 789 594 934 2462 2374 3353 3117 850 1171 644 2566 1198 1036 776 1168 1135 1244 995 811 1910 1262 70 486 2281 2396 1237

2101 1866 2387 2435 2084 2933 764 593 878 2424 2326 3274 3075 925 1051 847 2583 1164 967 848 1153 1123 1221 1750 1712 1929 1188 70 532 2449 2561 1365

1182 814 653 10

1491 624 788 13

1794 759 1076 16

1673 959 1576 18

1667 1000 1800 15

1705 761 1299 18

1695 748.0 1306 19

1695 815 1211 20

1695 838 1211 23

1695 838 1211 25

1730 766 1206 22

1730 766 1206 21

Source : Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation. n a : Not Available a : Includes cereals, coarse cereals and pulses b : Includes rice, wheat and coarse cereals * : 4th Advance Estimates d :Includes groundnut, rapeseed & mustard, sesamum, linseed, castorseed, nigerseed, safflower, sunflower and soyabean.

c e

: Includes tur, urad, moong, gram, lentils and other pulses f : Bales of 180 Kgs. : Bales of 170 Kgs.

Economic Survey 2014-15

Group/Commodity

A26

Table 1.14 : Yield Per Hectare of Major Crops

Economic Survey 2014-15

A27

Table 1.15 : Production of Important Crops in Three Largest Producing States in 2013-14* Crops/Groups of Crops 1 I.

Foodgrains Rice

Wheat

Maize

Total Coarse Cereals

Gram

Tur

Total Pulses

Total Foodgrains

II. Oilseeds Groundnut

Rapeseed & Mustard

Soyabean

Sunflower

Total Oilseeds

III. Other Cash Crops Sugarcane

Cotton a

Jute & Mestab

St a t e s

(Production Million Tonnes) Cumulative per cent Share of Production

Production

Per cent Share of Production to All India

West Bengal Uttar Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Punjab Madhya Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Maharashtra Karnataka Rajasthan Maharashtra Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan Maharashtra Maharashtra Karnataka Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Punjab Madhya Pradesh

15.3 14.6 13.0 30.3 17.0 13.9 5.0 4.0 3.1 6.7 6.6 6.3 3.8 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.5 5.1 3.1 2.5 50.1 28.9 24.2

14.4 13.7 12.2 31.5 17.8 14.5 20.4 16.3 12.6 15.6 15.3 14.5 232.9 101.2 16.4 161.7 130.4 14.0 26.4 16.2 12.8 18.9 10.9 9.2

14.4 28.1 40.3 31.5 49.3 63.8 20.4 36.8 49.4 15.6 30.9 45.5 232.9 334.2 350.6 161.7 292.1 306.1 26.4 42.6 55.4 18.9 29.8 39.0

Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh Haryana Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Rajasthan Karnataka Andhra Pradesh Maharashtra Gujarat Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan

4.9 1.2 1.0 3.8 0.9 0.9 5.4 4.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.8 6.7 6.1

50.9 12.7 9.9 48.1 11.3 11.1 44.8 39.9 8.2 54.5 16.4 7.3 20.8 20.3 18.5

50.9 63.6 73.5 48.1 59.4 70.5 44.8 84.7 92.9 54.5 70.9 78.2 20.8 41.1 59.5

Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra Karnataka Gujarat Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh West Bengal Bihar Assam

135.2 76.6 35.9 11.0 8.5 7.1 8.6 1.9 0.7

38.6 21.9 10.3 29.9 23.3 19.5 74.4 16.7 6.4

38.6 60.5 70.7 29.9 53.2 72.7 74.4 91.1 97.5

Source : Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation. * : 4th Advance Estimates a : Production in million bales of 170 kgs. b : Production in million bales of 180 kgs.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;27

A28

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 1.16 : Net Availability of Cereals and Pulses

Year

Cereals Population Net ( m i l l i o n ) production (million tonnes)

1 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(P)

Pulses

Net Change in Net availability Net imports Government (Col. 3+4-5) availability ( m i l l i o n stocks (million (million (million tonnes) tonnes) tonnes) tonnes)

Per capita net availability per day (grams) Cereals

Pulses

Total

551.3 563.9 576.8 590.0 603.5 617.2 631.3 645.7 660.3 675.2 688.5 703.8 718.9 734.5 750.4 766.5 782.7 799.2 815.8 832.6 851.7 867.8 883.9 899.9 922.0 941.6 959.8 978.1 996.4 1014.8 1033.2 1050.6 1068.2 1085.6 1102.8 1119.8 1136.6 1153.1 1169.4 1185.8 1201.9 1213.4 1228.8

84.5 82.3 76.2 82.8 78.6 94.5 87.3 100.1 104.8 88.5 104.1 106.6 103.0 122.0 116.9 119.9 115.2 113.2 136.6 138.4 141.9 136.8 145.8 149.6 155.3 147.1 162.0 156.9 165.1 171.8 162.5 174.5 143.2 173.5 162.1 170.8 177.7 197.3 192.4 178.0 198.0 211.9 208.9

2.0 (-)0.5 3.6 5.2 7.5 0.7 0.1 (-)0.8 (-)0.3 (-)0.5 0.5 1.6 4.1 2.4 (-)0.3 (-)0.1 (-)0.4 2.3 0.8 ... (-)0.6 (-)0.7 2.6 0.5 (-)3.0 (-)3.5 (-)0.6 (-)2.9 (-)1.5 (-)1.4 (-)4.5 (-)8.5 (-)7.1 (-)7.7 (-)7.2 (-)3.8 (-)7.0 (-)14.4 (-)7.2 (-)4.7 (-)9.6 (-)19.8 (-)22.2

(+)2.6 (-)4.7 (-)0.3 (-)0.4 (+)5.6 (+)10.7 (-)1.6 (-)0.3 (+)0.4 (-)5.8 (-)0.2 (+)1.3 (+)2.7 (+)7.1 (+)2.7 (-)1.6 (-)9.5 (-)4.6 (+)2.6 (+)6.2 (-)4.4 (-)1.6 (+)10.3 (+)7.5 (-)1.7 (-)8.5 (-)1.8 (+)6.1 (+)7.5 (+)13.9 (+)12.3 (-)9.9 (-)23.2 (-)3.3 (-)2.4 (-)1.8 (+)1.7 (+)17.0 (+)11.5 (-)0.5 (+)8.3 (+)11.2 (-)23.6

84.0 86.5 80.1 88.4 80.6 84.4 89.0 99.6 104.1 93.8 104.8 106.8 104.4 117.4 113.9 121.5 124.4 120.1 134.7 132.3 145.7 137.7 138.1 142.6 154.0 152.1 163.2 147.9 156.1 156.6 145.6 175.9 159.3 169.1 157.3 168.8 169.0 165.9 173.7 173.8 180.1 181.0 210.3

10.3 9.7 8.7 8.8 8.8 11.4 10.0 10.7 10.8 7.6 9.4 10.1 10.4 11.3 10.5 12.3 10.4 10.7 12.5 12.5 12.9 10.9 11.7 12.2 12.7 11.3 13.0 11.7 13.3 11.7 11.3 13.6 11.3 14.2 12.7 13.3 14.7 17.6 15.8 15.3 18.9 18.4 18.8

417.6 419.1 350.5 410.4 365.8 373.8 386.3 422.5 431.8 379.5 417.3 415.6 397.8 437.8 415.6 434.2 435.4 411.8 452.6 435.3 468.5 434.5 427.9 434.0 457.6 442.5 466.0 414.2 429.2 422.7 386.2 458.7 408.5 426.9 390.9 412.8 407.4 394.2 407.0 401.7 410.6 408.6 468.9

51.2 47.0 41.1 40.8 39.7 50.5 43.3 45.5 44.7 30.9 37.5 39.2 39.5 41.9 38.4 43.9 36.4 36.7 41.9 41.1 41.6 34.3 36.2 37.2 37.8 32.7 37.1 32.8 36.5 31.8 30.0 35.4 29.1 35.8 31.5 32.5 35.5 41.8 37.0 35.4 43.0 41.7 41.9

468.8 466.1 421.6 451.2 405.5 424.3 429.6 468.0 476.5 410.4 454.8 454.8 437.3 479.7 454.0 478.1 471.8 448.5 494.5 476.4 510.1 468.8 464.1 471.2 495.4 475.2 503.1 447.0 465.7 454.4 416.2 494.1 437.6 462.7 422.4 445.3 442.8 436.0 444.0 437.1 453.6 450.3 510.8

Source : Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministory of Agriculture. ... : Negligible. P : Provisional Notes: 1. Population figure relates to mid year. 2. Production figures relate to the agricultural year July-June: 1961 figures correspond to the production of 1960-61 and so on for subsequent years. 3. The net availability of foodgrains is estimated to be gross production [-] seed,feed and wastage ,[-] exports[+]imports, [+/-] change in stocks. 4. The net availability of foodgrains divided by the population estimates for a particular year indicate per capita availability of foodgrains in terms of kg/year. net availability, thus worked out further divided by the number of days in a year i.e. 365 days gives us net availability of foodgrains in terms of grams/day. 5. Figures in respect of per capita net availability given above are not strictly representative of actual level of consumption in the country especially as they do not take in to account any change in stocks in possession of trader, producers and consumers. 6. For calculation of per capita net availability, the figure of net imports from 1981 to 1994 are based on imports and exports on Government of India account only. Net import from 1995 are, however, based on the total exports and imports (both Government as well as Private accounts).

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;28

Economic Survey 2014-15

A29

Table 1.17 : Net Availability, Procurement and Public Distribution of Foodgrains (Million tonnes) Year

1 1951 1955 1960 1965 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(p) 2012 2013 2014 Sources :

Notes :

Net production of foodgrains

Net Net ProcurePublic imports availability of m e n t distribution b foodgrains a

Col. 3 as per cent of Col. 4

Col. 5 as per cent of Col. 2

Col. 6 as per cent of Col. 4

48.1 61.9 67.5 78.2 87.1 94.9 92.0 84.9 91.6 87.4 105.9 97.3 110.6 115.4 96.0 113.4 116.6 113.3 133.3 127.4 131.6 125.5 122.8 148.7 149.7 154.3 147.3 157.5 161.2 167.6 157.9 174.5 168.2 178.2 183.6 172.2 186.2 152.9 186.5 173.6 182.5 190.1 210.2 205.2 190.8 214.2 na na na

4.8 0.5 5.1 7.4 3.6 2.0 (-)0.5 3.6 5.2 7.5 0.7 0.1 (-)0.6 (-)0.2 (-)0.3 0.7 1.6 4.1 2.4 (-)0.4 0.5 (-)0.2 3.8 1.2 1.3 (-)0.1 (-)0.4 3.1 1.1 (-)2.6 (-)3.1 (-)0.1 (-)2.5 (-)1.3 (-)1.4 (-)2.9 (-)6.7 (-)5.5 (-)6.5 (-)6.0 (-)2.3 (-)4.7 (-) 9.7 (-) 4.1 (-) 2.2 (-) 2.9 na na na

52.4 63.2 71.2 84.6 89.5 94.3 96.2 88.8 97.1 89.3 95.8 99.0 110.2 114.9 101.4 114.3 116.9 114.7 128.6 124.3 133.8 134.8 130.8 147.2 144.8 158.6 148.5 149.8 154.8 166.7 163.3 176.2 159.6 169.4 168.3 156.9 189.5 170.6 183.3 170.0 181.9 183.7 183.5 189.5 189.2 203.1 na na na

3.8 ... 1.3 4.0 6.7 8.9 7.7 8.4 5.6 9.6 12.8 9.9 11.1 13.8 11.2 13.0 15.4 15.6 18.7 20.1 19.7 15.7 14.1 18.9 24.0 19.6 17.9 28.1 26.0 22.6 19.8 23.6 26.3 30.8 35.6 42.6 40.3 34.5 41.1 41.5 37.0 35.8 54.2 60.5 56.1 64.5 73.4 58.9 59.8

8.0 1.6 4.9 10.1 8.8 7.8 10.5 11.4 10.8 11.3 9.2 11.7 10.2 11.7 15.0 13.0 14.8 16.2 13.3 15.8 17.3 18.7 18.6 16.4 16.0 20.8 18.8 16.4 14.0 15.3 18.3 17.8 18.6 17.7 13.0 13.2 18.2 23.2 28.3 31.0 31.8 32.8 34.7 41.3 43.7 47.9 44.9 44.5 43.5

9.2 0.8 7.2 8.8 4.0 2.1 (-)0.5 4.0 5.3 8.4 0.7 0.1 (-)0.5 (-)0.2 (-)0.3 0.6 1.4 3.5 1.8 (-)0.3 0.4 (-)0.1 2.9 0.8 0.9 ... (-)0.3 2.1 0.7 (-)1.6 (-)1.9 ... (-)1.6 (-)0.8 (-)0.8 (-)1.8 (-)3.5 (-)2.8 (-) 3.5 (-) 3.5 (-) 1.3 (-) 2.6 (-) 5.3 (-) 2.2 (-) 1.2 (-) 1.4 na na na

7.9 2.1 1.9 5.2 7.7 9.3 8.3 9.9 6.2 10.9 12.1 10.1 10.0 12.0 11.6 11.4 13.2 13.7 14.0 15.8 15.0 12.5 11.5 12.7 16.0 12.7 12.2 17.9 16.1 13.5 12.5 13.5 15.6 17.3 19.4 24.7 21.7 22.6 22.0 23.9 20.3 18.8 25.8 29.5 29.4 30.1 na na na

15.3 2.5 6.9 11.9 9.9 8.3 10.9 12.8 11.1 12.6 9.6 11.8 9.2 10.2 14.8 11.4 12.6 14.1 10.4 12.7 12.9 13.8 14.2 11.1 11.0 13.1 12.7 10.9 9.1 9.0 11.2 10.1 11.1 9.9 7.7 8.4 9.6 13.2 15.5 18.2 17.5 17.8 18.9 21.8 23.1 23.6 na na na

1. Department of Food and Public Distribution. 2. Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation ... : Negligible. P : Provisional na : Not Available a : Net availability =Net production +Net Imports - changes in Government stocks. b : Includes quantities released under the Food for Work Programme during the year 1978 to 1990. 1. Production figures relate to agricultural year: 1951 figures correspond to 1950-51 and so on. Figures for procurement and public distribution relate to calender years. 2. Net Imports from 1981 to 1994 are only on Government account and from 1995 onwards the Net Imports are total Imports and Exports of the Country.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;29

A30

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 1.18 : Per Capita Availability of Certain Important Articles of Consumption

Year

Edible oila (Kg.)

1 1955-56 1960-61 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Sources :

a: b c d e

: : : :

Vanaspati b

Sugar (Kg.) (Nov.-Oct.) (Kg.) c

Clothd Man-made Total (metres) (metres) (metres) Cotton e

Tea (Gram.)

C o f f e e f Electricity (Gram.) Domestic (KWH)

2.5 3.2 2.7 2.7 3.4 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.4 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 5.1 4.5 5.8 5.5 5.0 5.0 5.8 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.3 7.0 8.0 6.2 8.5 9.0 8.2 8.8 7.2 9.9 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.4 12.7 13.1 13.0 13.8 15.8 16.8

0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8

5.0 4.8 5.7 5.2 4.3 5.0 6.1 7.4 6.8 6.2 6.1 5.8 6.1 6.0 7.2 9.6 7.8 7.3 8.2 9.0 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.7 12.5 13.2 14.1 14.6 14.5 14.9 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.1 15.5 16.3 16.8 17.8 18.8 18.6 17.0 18.7 18.7 19.5(P)

14.4 13.8 14.7 14.0 13.6 14.4 13.6 13.6 12.4 13.2 12.0 12.9 12.6 11.4 9.5 10.2 10.1 12.9 12.2 11.8 12.6 12.6 15.4 15.2 14.0 15.0 14.6 15.1 13.7 15.6 15.9 15.2 16.3 16.2 15.9 13.1 14.2 14.2 14.8 14.4 13.4 14.1 16.4 18.0 19.0 17.9 19.7 21.4 19.8 19.9 19.8

na 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.4 4.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.9 4.3 4.7 4.6 6.1 6.6 7.0 8.0 8.1 9.0 9.2 8.9 10.3 10.8 11.7 13.1 15.0 15.1 16.4 16.5 17.2 17.0 17.6 19.4 19.7 21.6 22.8 21.1 23.4 22.6 20.7 18.6 16.4

na 15.0 16.4 15.7 15.3 16.3 15.6 15.6 14.6 15.2 13.9 14.6 14.6 13.8 13.5 15.0 14.7 17.3 17.1 16.1 17.3 17.2 21.5 21.8 21.0 23.0 22.7 24.1 22.9 24.5 26.2 26.0 28.0 29.3 30.9 28.2 30.6 30.7 32.0 31.4 31.0 33.5 36.1 39.6 41.9 39.0 43.1 44.0 40.5 38.5 36.2

362.0 296.0 346.0 399.0 339.0 376.0 430.0 401.0 426.0 458.0 492.0 471.0 446.0 450.0 516.0 599.0 521.0 511.0 466.0 525.0 519.0 576.0 589.0 545.0 592.0 612.0 571.0 612.0 655.0 649.0 667.0 664.0 646.0 657.0 635.0 684.0 642.0 631.0 650.0 623.0 662.0 663.0 687.0 687.0 701.0 704.0 709.0 715.0 728.0 779.0 744.0

67.0 80.0 72.0 72.0 69.0 73.0 62.0 65.0 65.0 69.0 64.0 62.0 62.0 71.0 73.0 77.0 73.0 79.0 79.0 82.0 78.0 72.0 71.0 76.0 72.0 79.0 65.0 59.0 64.0 60.0 56.0 55.0 55.0 58.0 58.0 65.0 55.0 58.0 67.0 67.0 70.0 72.0 75.0 77.0 80.0 82.0 86.0 90.0 95.0 97.0 100.0

2.4 3.4 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.3 7.3 8.1 8.8 9.7 10.4 10.9 11.9 12.1 13.5 15.1 17.0 18.3 21.0 22.9 25.1 28.2 30.9 36.1 38.2 41.9 45.6 48.8 53.0 56.2 58.6 62.9 66.7 71.2 75.2 76.8 79.0 83.6 87.8 90.4 98.8 106.0 112.7 121.2 130.9 142.4 150.9 na

1. Directorate of Vanaspati, Vegetable Oils & Fats, 3. Ministry of Textiles. Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution. 4. Tea Board. 5. Coffee Board. 2. Department of Sugar & Edible Oils. 6. Central Electricity Authority, Ministry of Power. na : Not Available P : Provisional Includes groundnut oil, rapeseed and mustard oil, sesamum oil, nigerseed oil, soyabean oil and sunflower oil but excludes oil for manufacture of vanaspati. Relates to calendar year. Relates to actual releases for domestic consumption. The data of cloth; prior to 1980-81 is calender year wise; in meters upto 1984-85; in square meter from1985-86 onwards Figures for blended/mixed fabrics were not separately available prior to 1969. These have been included under man-made fibre fabrics after 1969 Figures up to 1971-72 relate to coffee season and are thereafter on calendar year basis. The figures for 1972-73 correspond to 1973 and so on.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;30

Table 1.19 : Production, Imports and Consumption of Fertilizers (Thousand tonnes of nutrients)

1 A.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;31

Nitrogenous fertilizers Production Imports Consumption Phosphatic fertilizers Production Imports Consumption Potassic fertilizers Imports Consumption All fertilizers (NPK) Production Imports Consumption

2014-15 (Apr.-Dec. 2014)

1970-71

1980-81

1990-91

2000-01

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

830 477 1487

2164 1510 3678

6993 414 7997

11004 154 10920

10900 3677 14419

10870 3844 15090

11900 3447 15580

12157 4493 16558

12259 5240 17300

12194 4801 16821

12338 3920 16750

9386 3579 na

229 32 462

842 452 1214

2052 1311 3221

3748 396 4215

3807 1391 5515

3464 2927 6506

4321 2756 7274

4223 3802 8050

4104 4427 7914

3541 2797 6653

3714 1588 5633

2860 1760 na

120 228

797 624

1328 1328

1541 1567

2653 2636

3380 3313

2945 3632

4069 3514

3335 2576

1559 2062

1926 2099

2076 na

1059 629 2177

3006 2759 5516

9045 2758 12546

14752 2090 19702

14707 7721 22570

14334 10151 24909

16221 9148 26486

16380 12364 28122

16363 13002 27790

15735 9157 25536

16092 7434 24482

12246 7415 na

Source : Department of Fertilizers , Ministry of Chemicals & Fertilizers. n a : Not Available

Economic Survey 2014-15

A31

A32

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 1.20 : Production of Major Livestock Products and Fish

Year 1 1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Milk (Million tonnes)

Eggs (Million Nos.)

Fish (Thousand tonnes)

17.0 20.0 22.0 31.6 53.9 80.6 102.6 107.9 112.2 116.4 121.8 127.9 132.4 137.7

1832 2881 6172 10060 21101 36632 50653 53583 55562 60267 63024 66450 69730 73890

752 1160 1756 2442 3836 5656 6869 7127 7620 7914 8400 8700 9040 9579(P)

Source : Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying & Fisheries

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;32

P : Provisional

Economic Survey 2014-15

A33

Table 1.21: Production of Coal and Lignite (Million tonnes) Coal Year

Lignite

Coking

Non-coking

Total

Total coal and

Metallurgical

NonMetallurgical

na 17.0 17.8 24.6 26.9 30.1 30.1 30.6 29.1 27.9 26.3 25.2 24.5 24.1 26.3 25.7 26.0 24.5 23.5 22.6 24.2 23.8 21.2 19.3 18.0 18.4 18.3 18.2 17.0 17.2 18.1 17.3 17.7 17.7 16.2 14.6 9.7 —

na na na 8.0 9.2 7.5 6.2 6.0 6.6 11.6 14.7 17.6 19.9 21.2 20.0 19.6 19.1 19.7 16.6 17.9 19.3 15.4 12.0 11.8 10.7 11.8 11.1 12.0 14.5 14.9 16.4 17.5 26.7 31.9 35.4 37.0 47.1 —

na 38.2 55.1 81.3 88.1 92.9 101.9 110.8 118.6 126.2 138.7 151.9 156.5 166.4 183.0 192.9 201.0 209.6 230.0 245.1 252.4 253.1 266.7 278.6 299.1 311.1 331.9 352.4 375.5 398.7 422.6 458.0 487.6 483.2 488.3 504.8 509.0 —

32.3 na na 113.9 124.2 130.5 138.2 147.4 154.2 165.8 179.7 194.6 200.9 211.7 229.3 238.3 246.0 253.8 270.1 285.7 295.9 292.3 300.0 309.6 327.8 341.3 361.3 382.6 407.0 430.8 457.1 492.8 532.0 532.7 540.0 556.4 565.8 426.7

na na 3.4 5.1 6.3 6.9 7.3 7.8 8.1 9.4 11.2 12.4 12.8 13.8 14.6 16.6 18.1 19.3 22.1 22.5 23.1 23.4 22.1 23.0 24.8 26.0 28.0 30.3 30.1 31.3 34.0 32.4 34.1 37.7 42.3 46.5 44.3 32.7

na na na 119.0 130.5 137.4 145.5 155.2 162.3 175.2 190.9 207.0 213.7 225.5 243.8 254.9 264.1 273.1 292.3 308.2 319.0 315.7 322.1 332.6 352.6 367.3 389.3 413.0 437.1 462.1 491.0 525.2 566.1 570.4 582.3 602.9 610.0 459.4

1 1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 a 2002-03 a 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15* Source : Ministry of Coal na : Not Available

lignite (5)+(6)

: Including Meghalaya Coal.

A—33

* : Upto December 2014

A34

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 1.22 : Progress of Electricity Supply (Utilities and Non-utilities) A : Installed Plant Capacity

Year 1 1950-51 a 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15(P)

Utilities

Non-Utilities

(Thousand MW) Total [5]+[6]

Hydro

Thermal+RES*

Nuclear

Total

0.6 1.9 6.4 11.8 12.2 13.1 13.9 14.5 15.5 16.2 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.4 20.8 21.0 21.7 21.9 22.4 23.9 25.1 26.3 26.8 29.5 30.9 32.3 34.7 35.9 36.9 36.9 37.6 39.0 39.5 40.5 40.8

1.1 2.7 7.9 17.6 19.3 21.4 24.4 27.0 30.0 31.8 35.6 39.7 43.8 45.8 48.1 50.7 54.4 58.1 60.1 61.9 65.0 68.7 71.3 73.6 76.0 78.4 80.5 84.7 88.6 93.7 103.0 107.0 118.0 131.3 156.1 179.1 199.9 209.4

0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8

1.7 4.6 14.7 30.3 32.4 35.4 39.4 42.6 46.8 49.3 54.2 59.0 63.6 66.1 69.1 72.3 76.8 81.1 83.3 85.8 89.1 93.3 97.9 101.6 105.0 107.9 112.7 118.4 124.3 132.3 143.0 148.0 159.4 173.7 199.9 223.4 245.2 255.0

0.6 1.0 1.6 3.1 3.4 3.9 4.4 5.1 5.5 5.7 6.3 7.5 8.2 8.6 9.3 10.1 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.1 13.2 14.1 14.7 16.2 17.1 18.3 18.7 19.1 21.3 22.3 25.0 27.0 31.5 34.4 36.5 40.7 36.5 40.7

2.3 5.6 16.3 33.4 35.8 39.3 43.8 47.7 52.3 55.0 60.5 66.5 71.8 74.7 78.4 82.4 87.5 92.3 95.1 97.9 102.3 107.4 112.6 117.8 122.1 126.2 131.4 137.5 145.6 154.6 168.0 175.0 190.9 208.1 236.4 264.1 281.7 295.7

Source : Ministry of Power a : Calendar Year P : Provisional (up to 30.11.2014) RES : Renewable Energy Sources * : RES includes Small Hydro Projects, Wind Power, Biomass Power, Biomass Gasifier, Urban & Industrial Waste & Solar Power.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;34

Economic Survey 2014-15

A35

Table 1.22 : Progress of Electricity Supply (Utilities and Non-utilities) B : Energy Generated (Gross) Year 1 1950-51 a 1960-61 1970-71 1975-76 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 a 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15(P)

Utilities

Non-Utilities

(Billion KWH) Total [5]+[6]

Hydro

Thermal+RES*

Nuclear

Total 5

2.5 7.8 25.2 33.3 38.0 47.1 45.5 56.5 49.6 48.4 50.0 53.9 51.0 53.8 47.5 57.9 62.1 71.7 72.8 69.9 70.4 82.7 72.6 68.9 74.6 82.9 80.6 74.5 73.5 64.0 75.2 84.6 101.5 113.5 120.4 110.1 104.1 114.4 130.5 113.7 134.9 99.6

2.6 9.1 28.2 43.3 51.1 52.6 56.3 61.3 69.5 79.9 86.7 98.8 114.4 128.9 149.6 157.7 178.7 186.5 208.7 224.8 248.2 262.1 299.3 317.9 337.0 353.7 386.8 408.1 424.4 449.3 472.1 492.8 506.0 538.4 585.3 616.2 677.1 704.3 759.4 817.9 845.7 619.3

…. …. 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.0 3.5 4.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.8 4.6 6.1 5.5 6.7 5.4 5.6 8.0 9.1 10.1 11.9 13.3 16.9 19.5 19.4 17.8 17.0 17.3 18.8 16.9 14.9 18.6 26.3 33.3 32.9 34.2 22.4

5.1 16.9 55.8 79.2 91.4 102.5 104.7 120.8 122.1 130.3 140.2 156.8 170.4 187.7 202.1 221.4 245.4 264.3 287.0 301.4 324.0 350.4 380.0 395.9 421.7 448.5 480.7 499.5 517.4 532.7 565.1 594.4 623.8 670.7 723.0 741.2 799.8 844.8 923.2 964.5 1014.8 741.4

1.5 3.2 5.4 6.7 7.6 7.6 8.2 8.4 9.0 10.0 10.8 12.3 13.0 13.6 16.9 19.9 23.0 25.1 28.6 31.3 32.3 35.1 38.2 40.8 44.1 48.4 51.5 55.0 61.7 63.8 68.2 71.4 73.6 81.8 90.5 99.7 106.1 120.9 128.2 144.0 151.2 105.0

6.6 20.1 61.2 85.9 99.0 110.1 112.9 129.2 131.1 140.3 151.0 169.1 183.4 201.3 219.0 241.3 268.4 289.4 315.6 332.7 356.3 385.5 418.1 436.7 465.8 496.9 532.2 554.5 579.1 596.5 633.3 665.8 697.4 752.5 813.1 840.9 906.0 965.7 1051.4 1108.5 1166.0 846.4

Source : Ministry of Power a : Calendar Year RES : Renewable Energy Sources * : RES includes Small Hydro Projects, Wind Power, Biomass Power, Biomass Gasifier, Urban & Industrial Waste & Solar Power. P : Provisional(generation data up to 30.11.2014 except for RES which is up to October, 2014)

A—35

1960-61

1970-71

1980-81

1990-91

2000-01

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

0.4 53.6

0.8 56.2

3.7 59.8

5.4 61.2

10.0 62.4

14.9 63.0

18.9 64.0

19.6 64.4

20.3b 64.6b

20.9 b 65.4 b

21.6 b 65.8 b

73.2 93.0

119.8 156.2

167.9 196.5

195.9 220.0

318.4 341.4

473.5 504.2

887.8 a 892.2 a

921.7 a 926.4 a

969.1 a 975.2 a

1008.1 a 1014.2 a

1051.6 a 1058.8 a

37.6 44.1 139.3 470 3.2 1284 66.5 98.2 51.8 1.5

72.3 87.7 280.5 561 3.9 1594 77.7 131.6 48.7 1.7

110.7 127.4 600.7 648 5.4 2431 118.1 295.5 48.6 2.5

147.7 158.5 1550.9 720 10.5 3613 208.6 827.5 57.7 4.0

235.8 242.7 8247.0 711 35.0 3858 295.6 3144.7 76.6 10.6

312.4 315.5 23045.4 626 73.8 4833 457 10515.1 b 94.6 22.9

600.6 a 601.3 a 56937.3 a 674 94.8 7245.8 903.5 23488.2 b 124.7 25.9

625.7a a 667.6 626.5 a 668.6 60687.1 a 67761.41 a 676 686 97.0 101.5 7651.1 8224.4 b 978.5 1046.5 b 25792.6 b 28246.4 b 127.9 127.2 b 26.3 27.0 b

691.7 a 692.6 a 83478.8 a 683 120.7 8420.7 b 1098.1 b 31322.8 b 130.4 b 28.5 b

665.8 a 666.7 a 91570.9 a 630 137.5 8397.1 b 1158.7 b 36532.3 b 138.0 b 31.5 b

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;36

1. Route Kilometres (000â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s) Electrified Total 2. Originating traffic (million tonnes) Revenue Earning Total Traffic 3. Goods carried (billion tonne km.) Revenue Earning Total Traffic 4. Earnings from goods carried (` Crores) 5. Average Lead: all goods traffic (Km) 6. Average rate/tonne km. (paise) 7. Passengers Originating (million) 8. Passengers kilometres (billion) 9. Passengers Earnings (` Crores) 10. Average lead : passenger traffic (km) 11. Average rate per passenger - kilometre (paise)

Source: Ministry of Railways P : Provisional a : Excluding Konkan Railways Corporation Limited Loading. b : Includes Metro Railway, Kolkata.

2012-13 2013-14 (P)

Economic Survey 2014-15

1950-51 1

A36

Table 1.23 : Operations of Indian Railways

Table 1.24 : Revenue Earning Goods Traffic on Indian Railways A : Traffic Originating (Million tonnes) Commodity 1

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;37

Source: Ministry of Railways P : Provisional na : Not Available

1960-61 3 30.9 10.5

1970-71 4 47.9 16.1

1980-81 5 64.1 20.2

1990-91 6 135.1 25.9

2000-01 7 223.7 38.7

8 396.2 11.6

9 420.4 13.3

2011-12 10 455.8 14.5

na na na

3.8 na na

6.2 na na

7.5 na na

10.0 na na

11.8 na na

24.2 7.7 31.9

24.1 8.8 32.8

25.7 9.5 35.2

26.0 9.4 35.3

27.8 11.1 39.0

na na na na 2.5 7.8 na 2.7

2.6 na na na 6.5 12.7 1.4 4.7

9.8 na na na 11.0 15.1 4.7 8.9

11.1 na na na 9.6 18.3 8.1 15.0

13.1 na na na 28.9 25.4 18.4 25.0

14.6 na na na 42.9 26.7 27.1 36.3

43.6 44.3 44.8 132.7 93.2 38.7 43.7 38.9

25.7 44.7 48.1 118.5 99.1 43.5 48.2 39.3

8.4 54.7 40.3 103.4 107.7 46.3 52.7 39.8

5.5 61.6 44.4 111.4 105.9 49.0 46.2 40.6

6.6 66.8 50.9 124.3 109.8 55.1 44.7 41.2

na na na 40.0 73.2

na na na 46.7 119.8

na na na 48.2 167.9

na na na 42.1 195.9

na na na 36.6 318.4

na na na 51.8 473.5

9.6 25.3 35.0 66.1 887.8

11.0 26.6 37.6 69.2 921.7

9.5 28.5 38.0 75.7 969.1

9.4 31.7 41.0 66.6 1008.1

10.9 32.6 43.5 68.8 1051.6

: Excluding Konkan Railways Corporation Limited Loading POL : Petroleum, Oil & Lubricants

2010-11 a

2012-13 a 2013-14(P) a 11 12 496.4 508.1 15.6 17.3

Economic Survey 2014-15

1. Coal 2. Raw materials for Steel Plant except iron ore 3. Pig iron & finished steel i) steel plants ii) from other points iii) Total 4. Iron ore i) for export ii) for steel plants iii) for other domestic users iv) Total 5. Cement 6. Foodgrains 7. Fertilizers 8. POL 9. Container Service i) Domestic container ii) EXIM containers iii) Total 10. Balance (other goods) 11. Total revenue earning freight traffic

1950-51 2 20.2 na

2009-10 a

A37

A38

Table 1.24 : Revenue Earning Goods Traffic on Indian Railways B : Goods Carried Commodity 1 Coal Raw materials for Steel Plant except iron ore 3. Pig iron & finished steel i) steel plants ii) from other points iii) Total 4. Iron ore i) for export ii) for steel plants iii) for other domestic users iv) Total 5. Cement 6. Foodgrains 7. Fertilizers 8. POL 9. Container Service i) Domestic container ii) EXIM containers iii) Total 10. Balance (other goods) 11.Total revenue earning freight traffic 1. 2.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;38

Source: Ministry of Railways P : Provisional na : Not Available

1950-51

1960-61

1970-71

1980-81

1990-91

2000-01

2 11.3 na

3 20.5 2.0

4 27.8 2.7

5 36.4 4.3

6 85.9 7.5

7 133.4 13.5

8 247.0 8.9

9 268.3 9.8

10 291.5 10.3

11 303.4 10.2

12 271.9 10.1

na na na

3.3 na na

6.2 na na

8.6 na na

11.6 na na

12.1 na na

25.4 6.1 31.5

24.9 7.4 32.2

26.3 7.6 33.9

27.2 6.9 34.1

28.0 7.0 35.0

na na na na na 4.0 na na

na na na na 2.5 9.6 na 2.6

5.5 na na na 7.0 14.5 3.8 5.3

7.3 na na na 7.2 24.3 8.9 11.7

7.5 na na na 18.9 35.6 17.3 15.1

7.9 na na na 24.9 33.1 23.0 19.9

25.0 10.0 19.0 54.0 53.8 50.3 36.6 24.9

15.5 9.6 21.2 46.4 57.0 52.0 40.7 26.1

2.0 14.3 19.7 36.0 62.0 57.9 43.9 26.1

3.1 15.4 19.6 38.1 62.7 71.3 39.0 28.5

2.7 16.4 18.1 37.2 60.5 70.5 34.5 29.7

na na na 22.3 37.6

na na na 31.9 72.3

na na na 37.9 110.7

na na na 39.1 147.6

na na na 36.4 235.8

na na na 44.5 312.4

12.7 31.6 44.3 49.5 600.6

13.8 27.2 41.0 52.3 625.7

13.6 31.6 45.2 60.8 667.6

13.8 36.2 50.0 54.4 691.7

15.9 36.2 52.1 64.3 665.8

a : Excluding Konkan Railways Corporation Limited Loading POL : Petroleum, Oil & Lubricants

2010-11 a

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14 (P) a

Economic Survey 2014-15

(Billion tonne km.) 2009-10 a

Table 1.25 : Operations of Road Transport Unit 1 1.

A—39

Length of roads Total a Surfaced Length of national highways Total a Surfaced Length of state highways Total a Surfaced Number of registered vehicles All vehicles Goods vehicles Buses Revenue from road transport Central States

1950-51

1960-61

1970-71

1980-81

1990-91

2000-01

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

399.9 157.0

524.5 263.0

914.9 398.0

1485.4 684.0

2327.4 1090.2

3373.5 1601.7

4582.4 2432.8

4690.3 2524.7

4865.4 2698.6

4949.3(P) 2742.0(P)

19.8 na

23.8 21.0

23.8 23.3

31.7 31.5

33.7 33.4

57.7 57.7

70.9 70.9

76.8 76.8

79.1(P) 79.1(P)

na na

56.8 51.7

94.4 90.3

127.3 124.8

132.1 129.9

160.2 158.2

163.9 161.9

164.4 163.0

168.3(P) 166.3(P)

306.0 82.0 34.0

665.0 168.0 57.0

1865.0 343.0 94.0

5391.0 554.0 162.0

21374.0 1356.0 331.0

54991.0 2948.0 634.0

127746.0 6432.0 1527.0

141866.0 7064.0 1604.0

34.8 12.6

111.7 55.2

451.8 231.4

930.9 750.4

4596.0 3259.6

23861.0 12901.7

48386.9 39512.6

75453.2 45992.4

(Thousand km)

(Thousand) 159491.0 172285.0(P) 7658.0 8119.0(P) 1677.0 1749.0(P)

(` crore) 90931.2 51527.8*

P: Provisional

Economic Survey 2014-15

Source : Ministry of Road Transport & Highways. a : Includes rural roads constructed under the Jawahar Rozgar Yojana as on 31st March 1996. na : Not Available. Sources : National Highways - Roads Wing, Ministry of Road Transport & Highways : State Highways – State Public Works Department : Registered Vehicles – Office of the State Transport Commissioners : Revenue from Road Transport (Central) – Directorate of Data Management, Central Excise and Customs. : Revenue from Road Transport (State) – State Finance – A Study of Budgets 2013-14 by RBI * : The figure excluding Sales Tax on Motor Spirit and Lubricants)

75572.5 55161.1

A39

1970-71

1980-81

1990-91

1999-00

2004-05

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15 a

1 2 Total fleet strength (Number) (i ) Air India 13 (ii) Indian Airlines 88 (iii) Air India Ltd. (Erstwhile National Aviation Company of India Limited (iv) Other Pvt Scheduled Airlines 2. Revenue tonne-Kilometers (Million) (i ) Air India 7.56 (ii) Indian Airlines 10.0 (iii) Air India Ltd. ( Erstwhile National Aviation Company of India Limited (iv) Other Pvt Scheduled Airlines 3. Number of passengers carried (Lakh) (i ) Air India 1.25 (ii) Indian Airlines 7.90 (iii) Air India Ltd. ( Erstwhile National Aviation Company of India Limited (iv) Other Pvt Scheduled Airlines 4. Passengers handled at (Lakh) AAI Airports na Joint Venture Int’l Airports Total at Indian Airports 5. Cargo handled at AAI Airports (Thousand tonnes) AAI Airports na Joint Venture Int’l Airports Total at Indian Airports

10 73

17 49

24 56

26 53

36 61 113

99*

232

220

229

253

273

353.30

367.70

360.30

3346

3910.00

4188.161

5338.58

6499.15

7672.99

7020.81

7280.77

8139.12*

117.50

127.80

134.30

141.83

154.06

169.47

27.52 20.00

4.87 21.30

98.01 40.03

14.18 54.29

138.10 69.92

21.61 78.66

145.65 74.03

221.80 101.73

441.94

1059.99

33.50 59.30

44.40 71.32

A—40

54.22

118.24

422.19

512.88

588.34

548.54

579.96

655.60*

107.38

177.23

390.35

592.84

508.71 728.84 1237.55

596.43 837.87 1434.3

684.00 939.00 1623.10

683.87 910.14 1594.01

716.48 972.68 1689.16

574.64 806.21 1380.85

178.70

377.33

797.41

1278.47

592.95 1366.76 1959.71

726.52 1621.92 2348.44

703.43 1576.56 2279.99

650.41 1540.14 2190.55

637.72 1641.43 2279.15

517.84 1391.32 1909.16

Source : Ministry of Civil Aviation. a : Updated up to December, 2014 na : Not Available * : Anticipated Note: Sahara Airlines commenced its operations in 1991 and Jet Airways in May 1993.

Economic Survey 2014-15

1960-61

A40

Table 1.26: Growth of Civil Aviation

Table 1.27 : Commodity Balance of Petroleum and Petroleum Products Item

1970-71 a

1980-81

1990-91

2000-01

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

0.3 0.3 0.3 ... na

6.6 0.5 0.5 ... 6.0

18.4 6.8 6.8 ... 11.7

25.8 10.5 5.5 5.0 16.2

51.8 32.2 11.8 20.4 20.7

103.4 32.4 11.8 20.6 74.1

192.8 33.7 11.8 21.9 159.3

197.0 37.7 16.4 21.3 163.6

204.1 38.1 18.0 20.1 171.7

219.2 37.9 19.4 18.4 184.8

222.5 37.8 19.6 18.2 189.2

166.7 28.2 14.0 14.1 142.3

3. II. 1.

3.3

7.7

17.9

30.9

55.0

100.1

137.8

141.0

148.1

157.1

158.2

122.3

... 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.2

... 2.0 1.2 1.7 5.7

0.9 3.3 3.8 4.7 17.1

2.3 4.2 10.3 7.5 24.1

3.4 8.4 21.1 9.0 48.6

11.7 11.3 37.9 12.7 95.6

10.1 9.3 56.2 11.6 184.6

10.7 8.9 60.1 10.8 194.8

11.2 8.2 64.8 9.3 203.2

12.3 7.5 69.1 7.7 217.7

11.5 7.2 68.4 6.2 220.8

8.0 5.3 51.9 4.4 165.4

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;41

na na na na 3.1 na na

... 0.9 1.1 1.6 2.5 na na

1.2 2.9 3.8 4.1 1.1 0.3 0.8

2.1 2.4 7.4 6.1 7.3 â&#x20AC;Ś 7.3

4.9 5.5 17.2 9.4 8.7 2.7 6.0

9.9 8.7 39.1 11.4 9.3 8.4 0.9

18.8 8.7 73.3 18.3 14.7 51.2 -36.5

19.2 7.8 78.1 20.5 17.4 59.1 -41.7

18.8 7.9 82.9 18.4 15.8 60.8 -45.0

19.0 8.0 91.1 15.1 15.8 63.4 -47.6

18.5 7.4 93.8 13.4 16.7 67.9 -51.1

13.1 5.7 70.5 9.0 14.9 48.6 -33.6

3. 4. 5.

Crude Oil Refinery throughput Domestic production (a) On-shore (b) Off-shore Imports Petroleum Products Domestic consumption b of which (a) Naphtha (b) Kerosene (c) High speed diesel oil (d) Fuel oils Domestic production c of which (a) Naphtha (b) Kerosene (c) High speed diesel oil (d) Fuel oils Imports Exports Net Imports (3-4)

Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. * : Provisional na : Not Available a : Excluding Import of LNG b : Excluding refinery fuel consumption including import by private parties. c : Including Production of Petroleum Products from Fractionators Note: Excludes other inputs from refineries crude throughput.

Economic Survey 2014-15

1960-61 a

1 I. 1. 2.

(Million Tonnes) 2013-14 2014-15 (Apr-Dec)*

1950-51 a

A41

A42

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 1.28 : Index of Industrial Production

Industry Group 1

Industry 2

We i g h t

2005-06

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

(Base 2004-05=100) 2012-13 2013-14

General Index 100.0 10 Mining 14.2 15-36 Manufacturing 75.5 15 Food products and beverages 7.3 16 Tobacco products 1.6 17 Textiles 6.2 18 Wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing 2.8 of fur 19 Luggage, handbags, saddlery, harness & 0.6 footwear; tanning and dressing of leather products 20 Wood and products of wood & cork except 1.1 furniture; articles of straw & plating materials 21 Paper and paper products 1.0 22 Publishing, printing & reproduction 1.1 of recorded media 23 Coke, refined petroleum products & 6.7 nuclear fuel 24 Chemicals and chemical products 10.1 25 Rubber and plastics products 2.0 26 Other non-metallic mineral products 4.3 27 Basic metals 11.3 28 Fabricated metal products, except 3.1 machinery & equipment 29 Machinery and equipment n.e.c. 3.8 30 Office, accounting & computing machinery 0.3 31 Electrical machinery & apparatus n.e.c. 2.0 32 Radio, TV and communication equipment 1.0 & apparatus 33 Medical, precision & optical instruments, 0.6 watches and clocks 34 Motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers 4.1 35 Other transport equipment 1.8 36 Furniture; manufacturing n.e.c. 3.0 40 Electricity 10.3

108.6 102.3 110.3 113.2 101.0 108.3 114.1

152.9 124.5 161.3 133.5 102.0 127.4 137.1

165.5 131.0 175.7 142.9 104.1 135.9 142.2

170.3 128.5 181.0 164.8 109.7 134.0 130.1

172.2 125.5 183.3 169.5 109.2 142.0 143.6

172.0 124.7 181.9 167.7 110.2 148.3 171.6

90.9

105.8

114.3

118.5

127.1

133.7

106.8

160.1

156.5

159.2

147.9

144.6

106.3 113.7

121.1 133.8

131.4 148.8

138.0 192.8

138.7 183.0

138.6 183.4

100.6

121.8

121.5

125.8

136.4

143.5

101.0 112.3 107.8 115.5 111.1

120.7 167.4 145.4 162.4 158.6

123.1 185.2 151.4 176.7 182.8

122.7 184.6 158.6 192.1 203.3

127.3 185.0 161.6 195.8 193.8

138.6 181.1 163.3 196.4 180.2

126.1 145.3 116.8 122.7

198.0 154.4 459.2 809.1

256.3 146.3 472.1 911.5

241.3 148.7 367.1 950.5

230.0 128.1 369.2 1003.7

219.2 108.0 422.6 730.1

95.4

100.9

107.8

119.5

117.1

111.1

110.1 115.3 116.2 105.2

179.1 171.1 152.7 130.8

233.3 210.7 141.2 138.0

258.6 235.8 138.6 149.3

244.8 235.7 131.5 155.2

221.3 249.5 113.3 164.7

Source: Central Statistics Office n.e.c. : not elsewhere classified

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;42

Economic Survey 2014-15

A43

Table 2.1 : Budgetary Transactions of the Central and State Governments and Union Territories (Including internal and extra-budgetary resources of public sector undertakings for their plans)

(` crore)

1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2012-13 2013-14 (BE) (RE) (BE) 1

I. Total Outlay 36845 176548 615658 2070959 2396419 2725009 3250674 3117262 3655506 24426 105922 317464 1170691 1385265 1605787 1879870 1836051 2108656 A.Development 1 B. Non-development 12419 70626 298194 900268 1011154 1119222 1370804 1281211 1546850 1. Defence (net) 3600 15427 49622 141781 154117 170913 193407 178504 203672 2. Interest payments 2957 25006 122792 317287 351145 403235 469592 465129 539034 3. Tax collection charges 504 1973 6570 18490 20205 22971 26724 27699 30545 4. Police 1163 5657 21343 67830 77103 89815 102977 105166 117959 5. Others 2 4195 22563 97867 354881 408584 432288 578104 504713 655640 II. Current Revenue 24563 110607 393284 1321414 1720242 1842477 2234987 2074017 2537333 A.Tax Revenue 19844 87723 305320 1000844 1271665 1467890 1751124 1726549 2032489 1. Income and corporation tax 2817 10712 67460 367142 437790 487341 563096 558807 660442 2. Customs 3409 20644 47542 83324 135813 149328 186694 164853 187308 3. Union excise duties 6500 24514 68526 102991 137701 144901 193729 171315 196805 4. Sales tax 4018 18228 72874 231461 293256 361332 423263 429977 503653 5. Others 3100 13625 48918 215926 267105 324988 384342 401597 484281 B. Non-tax Revenue 3 4719 22884 87964 320570 448577 374587 483863 347468 504844 (Internal resources of public sector undertakings for the Plan) (1374) (11183) (39415) (160538) (184323) (202717) (259859) (196770) (265910) III.GAP (I-II) 12282 65941 222374 749546 676177 882533 1015687 1043245 1118173 Financed by: IV. Net Capital Receipts (A+B) 8831 54455 223283 751949 684695 785377 1003285 968271 1099044 A.Internal (net) 7161 50192 214965 737770 658466 769967 990250 963294 1087030 1. Net market loans 4 3163 11308 85341 531493 445433 603608 678735 673848 735226 2. Net small savings 1121 8309 8192 26030 3950 19078 7440 2021 7092 3. Net State and public 558 3887 23661 44413 26131 17894 25713 23926 38501 providend funds 4. Special deposits of nonGovernment provident funds 604 6721 7177 0 0 0 0 0 0 5. Special borrowings from RBI -70 -105 na na na na na na na against compulsory deposits 6. Net misc. capital receipts5 1785 20072 90594 135834 182952 129387 278362 263499 306211 B. External 6 1670 4263 8318 14179 26229 15410 13035 4977 12014 1. Net loans 749 3181 7505 11038 23556 12448 10148 2215 10558 (i) Gross 1141 5339 17328 22177 35330 26034 26048 18491 27646 (ii) Less repayments 392 2158 9823 11140 11774 13586 15900 16276 17088 2. Grants 436 586 813 3141 2673 2962 2887 2762 1456 3. Net special credit -53 -76 0 V. Overall Budgetary Deficit 3451 11486 -909 -2404 -8517 97153 12401 74975 19128 Source : Economic Division, Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance. na : Not Available RE : Revised Estimatres BE : Budget Estimates Notes: 1. Includes plan expenditure of Railways, Communications and non-departmental commercial undertakings financed out of their internal and extra budgetary resources, including market borrowings and term loans from financial institutions to State Government public enterprises. Also includes developmental loans given by the Central and State Governments to non-departmental undertakings, local bodies and other parties. However, it excludes a notional amount of `45 crore in 1980-81 on account of conversion of loan capital given to non-departmental commercial undertakings into equity capital. 2. Includes general administration, pensions and ex-gratia payments to famine relief (only non-plan portion), subsidies on food and controlled cloth, grants and loans to foreign countries and loans for non-developmental purpose to other parties, but excludes Contingency Fund transactions. It also excludes notional transactions in respect of subscriptions to International Monetary Fund of `559 crore in 1980-81, `550 crore in 1990-1991, `629 crore in 2000-2001, nil in 2007-08, `1444 crore in 2008-09, `3654 crore in 2009-10, `9051 in 2010-11, `1613 crore in 2011-12, `4149 in 2012-13(RE )and `42149 in 2013-14(BE). 3. Includes internal resources of Railways, Communications and non-departmental commercial undertakings for the plan. 4. Includes market borrowings of State Government public enterprises. 5. Excludes the notional receipts on account of repayments of loans by non-departmental commercial undertakings due to their conversion into equity capital. It also excludes notional transactions in respect of International Monetary Fund and Contingency Fund transactions. 6. `538 crore for loans from IMF Trust Fund are included in 1980-81 under external loans and an amount of `572 crores for revolving fund is included in External loans for 1990-91.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;43

A44

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 2.2 : Total Expenditure of the Central Government Final outlays Government Gross consumption capital expenditure formation

1 First Plan (1951-52 to 1955-56) Second Plan (1956-57 to 1960-61) Third Plan (1960-61 to 1965-66) Annual Plan (1966-67 to 1968-69) Fourth Plan (1969-70 to 1973-74) Fifth Plan (1974-75 to 1978-79) Sixth Plan (1980-81 to 1984-85) Seventh Plan (1985-86 to 1989-90) Eighth Plan (1992-93 to 1996-97) Ninth Plan (1997-98 to 2001-02) Tenth Plan (2002-03 to 2006-07) Eleventh Plan (2007-08 to 2011-12) 1950-51 1955-56 1960-61 1965-66 a 1970-71 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 b

Total (2+3)

(` crore) Transfer payments to the rest Financial Total of the economy investments e x p e n Current Capital Total & loans to diture (5+6) the rest of (4+7+8) the economy (gross) 5 6 7 8 9

1241

612

1854

809

123

932

966

3751

1962

1445

3406

1567

249

1816

2600

7823

4256

2445

6701

2983

501

3484

5076

15261

3878

1243

5121

3214

407

3621

4740

13481

9775

2969

12745

8036

1454

9490

10760

32994

17576

5951

23527

19773

3230

23003

21145

67674

35885

14823

50708

50604

9910

60514

47034

158256

81974

31616

113590

134246

26292

160538

89764

363892

179676

73599

253275

387746

66433

454179

127752

835206

331143

100568

431711

795621

106925

902546

150754 1485011

516165

144027

660192

1390293

185704

1575997

123921 2360109

1002126 235 269 433 1109 1669 3449 3606 3678 3975 4502 5174 6096 7057 8130 9428 11210 14665 16551 18764 20784 22359 24466 26865 31815

284215 80 153 307 520 519 1204 1112 1107 1301 1528 1908 2552 2884 3356 4123 4558 5905 5961 7056 8137 8602 9259 11875 12765

1286341 315 422 740 1630 2189 4654 4718 4785 5277 6030 7082 8648 9941 11486 13552 15768 20570 22512 25820 28920 30961 33725 38739 44580

2946106 111 203 427 754 1239 3018 3945 4678 5683 6064 6912 7728 9590 11436 14938 18347 21243 25380 31399 37877 45134 51378 58518 66750

529055 6 49 69 132 193 536 502 755 1063 1220 1302 1525 1788 2337 2958 3825 4408 5474 5750 6835 7117 8449 9092 11811

3475161 117 251 495 886 1432 3553 4447 5433 6745 7283 8214 9253 11378 13773 17896 22173 25651 30854 37148 44712 52251 59827 67610 78560

212323 4973825 72 504 301 975 570 1806 1425 a 3940 a 1956 5577 3830 12037 3986 13150 4768 14986 5696 17717 5191 18504 7200 22495 7500 25401 9175 30494 10729 35988 12432 43879 15172 53112 17803 64023 16938 70305 18434 81402 21417 95049 21760 104973 19179 112731 19578 125927 22648 145788 Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;44

Economic Survey 2014-15

A45

Table 2.2 : Total Expenditure of the Central Government (Contd.) Final outlays Government Gross consumption capital expenditure formation 1 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 c 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13(RE) 2013-14(BE)

Total (2+3)

34878 41881 44238 53090 59920 68831 71977 77324 85389 87170 105692 116305 121609 131396 174345 210625 230262 255498 269339 315318

14328 16685 17946 18955 20647 26075 22258 12634 21697 23997 27396 34450 36487 43652 51464 58999 65059 65041 77974 97498

49206 58566 62184 72046 80567 94906 94235 89958 107086 111167 133088 150755 158095 175048 225809 269624 295321 320539 347312 412816

(` crore) Transfer payments to the rest Financial Total of the economy investments e x p e n Current Capital Total & loans to diture (5+6) the rest of (4+7+8) the economy (gross) 5 6 7 8 9 76368 85304 100807 111577 137611 161549 183696 201188 228501 248436 259529 297267 356560 408676 543347 580898 656300 756885 862641 952913

13974 15263 16294 17360 18671 20482 22404 28009 29406 32038 36822 41681 45758 53758 70287 113345 150312 141353 140059 189945

90342 100566 117101 128937 156282 182031 206100 229197 257907 280474 296351 338948 402318 462434 613634 694243 806612 898238 1002700 1142858

27450 26101 31975 23884 26907 30572 27929 41462 33886 34491 34393 11380 9771 51427 25087 28575 62795 44439 48261 102359

166998 185233 211260 224866 263755 307509 328265 360616 398879 426132 463831 501083 570185 688909 864530 992442 1164728 1263216 1398273 1658033

Source : Ministry of Finance, Economic & Functional Classification of the Central Governmet Budget-various issues. RE : Revised Estimates BE : Budget Estimates a : For 1965-66, includes ` 53 crore as additional payments to IMF, IBRD, IDA & ADB following the change in the par value of the rupee. This is a nominal outlay as it is met by the issue of non-negotiable Government of India securities. b : From 1993-94 onwards, Delhi is not included. c : From 1997-98 onwards loans to States/UTs are exclusive of loans against States/UTs shares in small saving collections.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;45

` crore) Amount (` Eleventh A n n u a l A n n u a l A n n u a l A n n u a l A n n u a l Eleventh Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan (2007-12) 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 (2007-12) Projected (Actual) (Actual) (Actual)(Actual) (Actual) Reali(At zation 2006-07 (At current prices) prices)

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;46

Agriculture & allied activities 136381 Rural development 301069 Special area programmes 26329 Irrigation & flood control 210326 Energy 854123 Industry & Minerals 153600 Transport 572443 Communications 95380 Science, Technology & 87933 Environment X General economic services 62523 XI Social services 1102327 XII General services 42283 XIII Total (I to XII) 3644718

20083 34309 6607 38275 84677 19501 83743 8348 9909

27117 59080 6999 41164 106212 30260 105064 13090 11860

29498 40370 58615 67008 7875 10093 42853 46049 148372 150251 39041 45056 127356 139541 14748 10336 13267 15948

45781 65996 12563 49221 162661 46084 156353 6586 16157

162849 285008 44138 217563 652173 179943 612058 53108 67141

3.7 8.3 0.7 5.8 23.4 4.2 15.7 2.6 2.4

4.2 7.2 1.4 8.1 17.8 4.1 17.6 1.8 2.1

4.3 9.4 1.1 6.6 16.9 4.8 16.7 2.1 1.9

4.1 8.2 1.1 6.0 20.7 5.4 17.8 2.1 1.9

4.9 8.1 1.2 5.6 18.2 5.5 16.9 1.3 1.9

4.9 7.0 1.3 5.3 17.4 4.9 16.7 0.7 1.7

4.5 8.0 1.2 6.1 18.2 5.0 17.1 1.5 1.9

10183 153133 6243 475012

11108 209206 6999 628161

11482 20496 215955 272031 7972 9088 717035 826268

31218 322215 21457 936292

84487 1172540 51759 3582767

1.7 30.2 1.2 100.0

2.1 32.2 1.3 100.0

1.8 33.3 1.1 100.0

1.6 30.1 1.1 100.0

2.5 32.9 1.1 100.0

3.3 34.4 2.3 100.0

2.4 32.7 1.4 100.0

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX

Source: Planning Commission.

Percentage distribution Eleventh A n n u a l A n n u a l A n n u a l A n n u a l A n n u a l Eleventh Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan (2007-12) 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 (2007-12) Projected (Actual)(Actual)(Actual) (Actual) (Actual) Reali(At zation 2006-07 (At current prices) prices)

Economic Survey 2014-15

S . Head of development No.

A46

Table 2.3 : Eleventh Plan (2007-2012) Outlay by Heads of Development : Centre, States and Union Territories

Economic Survey 2014-15

A47

Table 2.4 : Twelfth Plan (2012-17) Outlay by Heads of Development : Centre, States and Union Territories S.No. Head of development Twelfth Plan (2012-17) Projected (At current prices) 1 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII

Amount (` Percentage distribution ` crore) Annual Annual Annual Twelfth A n n u a l A n n u a l A n n u a l Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 (2012-17) 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Actual (RE) (BE)* Projected Actual (RE) (BE)* (At current prices)

Agriculture & allied activities 363273 Rural development 457464 Special area programmes 80370 Irrigation & flood control 422012 Energy 1438466 Industry & Minerals 377302 Transport 1204172 Communications 80984 Science, Technology & 167350 Environment General economic services 305612 Social services 2664843 General services 107959 Total (I to XII) 7669807

52521 66194 11289 54394 179438 46786 145002 6289 18304

61356 73255 18095 71253 238019 51428 175543 9333 22664

11531 3061 0 1797 166275 40209 116202 13009 18792

4.7 6.0 1.0 5.5 18.8 4.9 15.7 1.1 2.2

5.4 6.8 1.2 5.6 18.5 4.8 14.9 0.6 1.9

4.8 5.7 1.4 5.6 18.6 4.0 13.7 0.7 1.8

2.4 0.6 0.0 0.4 34.3 8.3 24.0 2.7 3.9

37079 340266 14390 971951

47660 443357 69060 1281022

26318 79433 7906 484533

4.0 34.7 1.4 100.0

3.8 35.0 1.5 100.0

3.7 34.6 5.4 100.0

5.4 16.4 1.6 100.0

Source : Planning Commission. * : The Outlays are only of the Centre as Outlays of State Plans are not yet finalized. RE : Revised Estimates BE : Budget Estimates

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;47

A48

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 2.5 : Financing for Central and State Annual Plans 2013-14 (RE/LE) and 2014-15 (BE/AP) (` crore) Items States and Uts (LE) 1

Domestic non-debt resources a BCR b MCR (excluding deductions for repayment of loans) c Plan grants from GOI (TFC) d ARM e Adjustment of opening balance II Domestic Debt Resources Net Borrowings (i) - (ii) (i) Gross Borrowings (a to f) a State Provident Fund b Small Savings c Negotiated Loans d Government of India Loans(EAPS) e Market Borrowings f Bonds/Debentures (ii) Repayments Own Resources (incl. Borrowings) I+II III Central Assistance( Grants) (1+2+3) 1 Normal Central Assistancea 2 ACA for EAPsb 3 Others A Government Resources (I+II+III) B Contribution of Public Sector Enterprises (PSE) C Local Bodies D Net Inflow from Abroad Aggregate Plan Resources (A+B+C+D)

2013-14 C e n t r e Total (2+3) States and (RE) Uts (LE)

2014-15 Centre (BE)

Total (5+6)

173425 151134 -1119

-8551 -80445 71894

164874 70689 70775

185657 168882 -2570

85427 -21839 107267

271084 147043 104697

14670 1066 7674

0 0 0

14670 1066 7674

14718 1332 3294

0 0 0

14718 1332 3294

253715 387700 74847 18989 27073 18364 248421 7 133985 427140 139799 25642 1612 112545 566939 51836 11656 0 630432

475507 475507 10000 11605 0 0 453902 0 0 466956 -119039 -27236 -14780 -77023 347917 257641 0 8575 614134

729222 863207 84847 30594 27073 18364 702323 7 133985 894097 20760 -1594 -13168 35522 914857 309477 11656 8575 1244566

267053 393379 77101 21239 33138 20303 239792 1806 126326 452710 306205 28677 5886 271642 758915 52276 9649 0 820840

481434 481434 12000 8229 0 0 461205 0 0 566861 -338408 -28514 -15500 -294394 228453 247941 0 8138 484532

748487 874813 89101 29468 33138 20303 700997 1806 126326 1019571 -32203 163 -9614 -22752 987368 300217 9649 8138 1305372

LE : Latest Estimates AP : Annual Plan RE : Revised Estimates BE : Budget Estimates BCR : Balance from Current Revenues MCR : Miscellaneous Capital Receipts ARM : Additional Resource Mobilisation ACA : Additional Central Assistance EAPs : Externally Aided Projects a : NCA (Grants) and Other (Grants) under Central Assistance in the States and UTs columns include the allocation for Delhi & Puducherry in both the year of 2013-14 (LE) and 2014-15 (AP). b : ACA for EAPs (Grants) includes ` 11000 crore loan amount in Centreâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s columns for 2013-14 (RE) and ` 12000 crore for 2014-15 (BE). Notes: 1) UTs includes only UTs with legislature, namely, Delhi & Puducherry. 2) As the Annual Plan for Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have not been finalized the States and UTs (AP) 2014-15 does not include the data in respect of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. 3) Central Assistance (Grants) includes the Centrally Sponsored Schemes in 2014-15 AP.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;48

Economic Survey 2014-15

A49

Table 2.6 : Overall Financing Pattern of the Public Sector Plan Outlay During the Twelfth Plan : 2012-17 Resources

Centre

1 Balance from current revenues (BCR ) 2 Borrowings(including net MCR) 3 Net inflow from abroad 4 Centre’s GBS (1+2+3) 5 Resources of Public Sector Enterprises 6 State’s Own Resources (1+2+5) 7 Central Assistance States & UTs 8 Resources of the Public Sector Plan (1+2+3+5+7)

(` crore at current prices) Total

States and UTs 3

1387371 2181255 … 3568626 1622899 … -857786 4333739

959979 1518301 … … 380319 2858599 857786 3716385

2347350 3699556 … 3568626 2003218 2858599 … 8050123

Source : Draft Twelfth Plan Document, Planning Commission.

Table 2.7: Financial Performance of Indian Railways (` crore) 1980-81 1990-91 2001-02 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15(BE) 1 1.

Gross traffic receipts (i) Passenger coaching (ii) Other coaching (iii) Goods (iv) Other earnings (v) Suspense account 2. Working expenses (i) Ordinary working expenses (ii) Appropriations to depreciation reserve fund (iii) Appropriation to pension fund 3. Net traffic receipts (1-2) 4. Net miscellaneous receipts 5. Net revenues (3+4) 6. Dividend (i) Payable to general revenues (ii) Payment of Deferred Dividend (iii) Deferred dividend (iv) Net dividend payable 7. Surplus (+) or deficit (-) 8. (i) Capital at charge (ii) Investment from capital fund (iii) Total[(i)+(ii)] 9. Item 5 as % of item 8(iii) 10. Item 7 as % of item 8(iii)

2624 827 116 1618 82 -19 2537 2233 220

12096 3147 336 8408 242 -37 11154 8234 1950

37837 11197 872 24845 944 -21 36293 28703 2000

94536 25793 2470 62845 3418 10 89474 68139 5515

104110 28246 2717 69548 3643 -43 98667 74537 6520

123733 139558 31323 36532 3054 3679 85263 93906 4261 5721 -168 -280 111572 130321 84012 97571 6850 7900

160165 44645 4200 105770 5500 50 148049 112649 6850

84 87 40 127

970 942 171 1113

5590 1544 793 2337

15820 5062 1285 6347

17610 5443 1339 6782

20710 12161 1454 13615

24850 9237 2512 11749

28550 12116 3083 15199

325

938

2337

4941

5656

5349

8009

9135

0 325 -198 6096 0 6096 2.1 -3.2

0 938 175 16126 0 16126 6.9 1.1

1000 1337 1000 37757 10390 48147 4.9 2.1

4941 1406 130540 38676 169216 3.8 0.8

5656 1126 122772 38676 161448 4.2 0.7

5349 8009 8266 3740 144812 170168 38676 38676 183488 208844 7.4 5.6 4.5 1.8

9135 6064 197640 44138 241778 6.3 2.5

Source : Ministry of Railways. BE : Budget Estimates

Table 2.8 : Financial Performance of the Department of Posts (` crore) 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 (RE) 1 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Gross receipts Net working expenses Net receipts (1-2) Dividend to general revenues Surplus(+)/deficit (-) (3-4)

278 346 -68 4 -72

840 1033 -193 0 -193

3298 4848 -1550 0 -1550

5862 9455 -3593 0 -3593

6267 12908 -6641 0 -6641

6962 13308 -6346 0 -6346

7518 12827 -5309 0 -5309

9367 14792 -5425 0 -5425

10730 16204 -5474 0 -5474

10902 17846 -6944 0 -6944

Source : Department of Posts, Ministry of Communications. RE : Revised Estimates

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A50

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 2.9 : Receipts and Expenditure of the Central Government

1. Revenue receipts (a+b) (a) Tax revenue (net of States’ share) (b) Non-tax revenue 2. Revenue expenditure of which: (a) Interest payments (b) Major subsidies (c) Defence expenditure 3. Revenue deficit (2-1) 4. Capital receipts of which: (a) Recovery of loans (b) Other receipt (mainly PSU disinvestment) (c) Borrowings and other liabilities$ 5. Capital expenditure 6. Non Debt Receipts [1+4(a)+4(b)] 7. Total expenditure [2+5=7(a)+7(b)] of which: (a) Plan expenditure (b) Non-plan expenditure 8. Fiscal deficit [7-1-4(a)-4(b)] 9. Primary deficit [8-2(a)] Memorandum items (a) Interest receipts (b) Non-plan revenue expenditure

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2013-14 2013-14 2014-15 (B.E.) (R.E.) (P) (B.E.) (` crore) 541864 540259 572811 788471 751437 877613 1056330 1029251 1015279 1189763 439547 443319 456536 569869 629765 740256 884078 836025 816046 977258

1. Revenue receipts (a+b) (a) Tax revenue (net of States’ share) (b) Non-tax revenue 2 . Revenue expenditure of which: (a) Interest payments (b) Major subsidies (c) Defence expenditure 3. Revenue deficit (2-1) 4. Capital receipts of which: (a) Recovery of loans (b) Other receipt (mainly PSU disinvestment) (c) Borrowings and other liabilities$ 5. Capital expenditure 6. Non Debt Receipts [1+4(a)+4(b)] 7. Total expenditure [2+5=7(a)+7(b)] of which: (a) Plan expenditure (b) Non-plan expenditure 8. Fiscal deficit [7-1-4(a)-4(b)] 9. Primary deficit [8-2(a)]

102317 96940 116275 218602 121672 137357 172252 193226 199233 212505 594433 793798 911809 1040723 1145786 1243509 1436168 1399539 1375590 1568112 171030 66638 54219 52569 170807

192204 123206 73305 253539 343697

213093 134658 90669 338998 451676

234022 164516 92061 252252 408857

273150 211319 103011 394349 552928

313169 247493 111277 365896 532754

370684 220972 116931 379838 608967

380066 245451 124800 370288 561183

377502 247596 123449 360311 548206

427011 251397 134412 378349 605129

5100 38795

6139 566

8613 24581

12420 22846

18850 18088

16268 25890

10654 55814

10803 25841

12502 27555

10527 63425

126912 336992 418482

373591

515990

490596

542499

524539

508149

531177

118238 90158 112678 585759 546964 606005

156604 823737

158579 166858 229129 190895 187895 226780 788375 919771 1122798 1065895 1055336 1263715

712671 883956 1024487 1197327 1304365 1410367 1665297 1590434 1563485 1794892 205082 275235 303391 507589 608721 721096

379029 818298

412375 413625 555322 475532 453085 575000 891990 996742 1109975 1114902 1110400 1219892

126912 336992 418482

373590

515990

490596

542499

524539

508149

531177

-44118 144788 205389

139568

242840

177427

171815

144473

130647

104166

21060 20717 21784 420861 559024 657925

19734 726491

20252 812049

20763 914301

17764 21018 22407 19751 992908 1027688 1023047 1114609

(As Per cent to GDP) 8.8 10.1 8.3 7.0 7.3 7.0

8.7 7.3

9.3 7.8

9.1 7.4

8.9 7.2

9.2 7.6

10.9 8.8

9.6 7.9

2.1 11.9

1.7 14.1

1.8 14.1

2.8 13.4

1.4 12.7

1.4 12.3

1.5 12.6

1.7 12.3

1.8 12.1

1.7 12.2

3.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 3.4

3.4 2.2 1.3 4.5 6.1

3.3 2.1 1.4 5.2 7.0

3.0 2.1 1.2 3.2 5.3

3.0 2.3 1.1 4.4 6.1

3.1 2.4 1.1 3.6 5.3

3.3 1.9 1.0 3.3 5.4

3.3 2.2 1.1 3.3 4.9

3.3 2.2 1.1 3.2 4.8

3.3 2.0 1.0 2.9 4.7

0.1 0.8

0.1 0.0

0.1 0.4

0.2 0.3

0.2 0.2

0.2 0.3

0.1 0.5

0.1 0.2

0.1 0.5

2.5

6.0

6.5

4.8

5.7

4.9

4.8

4.6

4.5

4.1

2.4 11.7

1.6 9.7

1.7 9.4

2.0 10.6

1.8 8.8

1.6 9.1

2.0 9.9

1.7 9.4

1.7 9.3

1.8 9.8

14.3

15.7

15.8

15.4

14.5

13.9

14.6

14.0

13.8

13.9

4.1 10.2 2.5 -0.9

4.9 10.8 6.0 2.6

4.7 11.1 6.5 3.2

4.9 10.5 4.8 1.8

4.6 9.9 5.7 2.7

4.1 9.9 4.9 1.8

4.9 9.8 4.8 1.5

4.2 9.8 4.6 1.3

4.0 9.8 4.5 1.2

4.5 9.5 4.1 0.8

Source: Union Budget documents and Controller General of Accounts. BE: Budget Estimates P : Provisional Actuals (Unaudited) RE : Revised Estimates $ : Does not include receipts in respect of Market Stabilization Scheme, which will remain in the cash balance of the Centeral Government and will not be used for expenditure.

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Economic Survey 2014-15

A51

Table 2.10 : Outstanding Liabilities of the Central Government

1. Internal liabilities # a) Internal debt i) Market borrowings ii) Others b) Other Internal liabilities 2. External debt(outstanding)* 3. Total outstanding liabilities (1+2) 4. Amount due from Pakistan on account of share of pre-partition debt 5. Net liabilities (3-4) Memorandum items (a) External debt @ (b) Total outstanding liabilities (adjusted) (c) Internal liabilities (Non-RBI) ## (d) Outstanding liabilities (Non-RBI) ## (e) Contingent liabilities of Central Government (f) Total assets

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2725394 1799651 1104564 695087 925743 112031 2837425

3036132 2019841 1338194 681647 1016291 123046 3159178

3395877 2328339 1746619 581720 1067538 134083 3529960

300

2010-11

2011-12

(` crore) 3781135 4347164 2667115 3230622 2072033 2516953 595082 713669 1114020 1116542 157639 170088 3938774 4517252 300

300

(end-March) 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 (RE) (BE) 4893303 3764566 2984309 780257 1128737 177289 5070592

5404721 4250297 3442210 808087 1154424 182729 5587450

6034194 4771602 3908415 863187 1262592 188463 6222657

300

2837125 3158878 3529660 3938474 4516952 5070292 5587150 6222357 210086 264059 249306 278877 322897 332005 374494 382622 2935480 3300191 3645183 4060012 4670061 5225308 5779215 6416816 2492205 2707846 3087360 3464858 3904022 4396811 4889550 5489470 2702291 2971905 3336666 3743735 4226919 4728816 5264044 5872092 104872

113335

137460

151292

190519

233769

1569546 1569043 1607544 1794504 1927143 2080649 2224453 2392246 (As per cent of GDP) 1. Internal liabilities # 54.6 53.9 52.4 48.6 48.2 48.4 47.6 46.9 a) Internal debt 36.1 35.9 35.9 34.3 35.9 37.2 37.4 37.1 i) Market borrowings 22.1 23.8 27.0 26.6 27.9 29.5 30.3 30.4 ii) Others 13.9 12.1 9.0 7.6 7.9 7.7 7.1 6.7 b) Other Internal liabilities 18.6 18.1 16.5 14.3 12.4 11.2 10.2 9.8 2. External debt(outstanding)* 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 3. Total outstanding liabilities (1+2) 56.9 56.1 54.5 50.6 50.1 50.1 49.2 48.3 Source: Union Budget documents and DMO (Middle Office) na : not available * : External debt figures represent borrowings by Central Government from external sources and are based upon historical rates of exchange. @ : The external debt figures at current exchange rates are taken from Union Govt. Finance Accounts. For 2014-15 (BE), the Net external assistance in 2014-15 has been added to outstanding stock at end-March 2014. # : Internal debt includes net borrowing of ` 1,70,554 crore for 2007-08, ` 88,773 crore for 2008-09, ` 2,737 crore for 2009-10 and ` 20,000 crore for 2014-15(BE) under Market Stabilisation Scheme. ## : This includes marketable dated securties held by the RBI.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;51

A52

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 2.11 : Total Expenditure and Capital Formation by the Central Government and its Financing (As per economic and functional classification of the Central Government budget) 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 (RE)

I. Total expenditure II. Gross capital formation out of budgetary resources of Central Government (i) Gross capital formation by the Central Government (ii) Financial assistance for capital formation in the rest of the economy III. Gross saving of the Central Government IV. Gap (II-III) Financed by a. Draft on other sectors of domestic economy (i) Domestic capital receipts (ii) Budgetary deficit/draw down of cash balance b. Draft on foreign savings

3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

(` crore) 992440 1164727 1263216 1398274 1658033 184501 256368 234969 243776 318892

688908 143892

864530 136935

43652

51464

58999

65059

65041

77974

97498

100240

85471

125502

191309

169928

165802

221394

13674 130218

-176082 313017

-232452 416953

-103270 359638

-267428 502397

-254765 498541

-203591 522483

118180 145351 -27171

299208 246612 52596

402774 404160 -1386

333409 326979 6430

486987 502977 -15990

493564 498714 -5150

510467 510467 0

12038

13809

4977

12016

63.7

-4.8

3.7

30.8

Total expenditure Gross capital formation out of budgetary resources of Central Government Consumption expenditure Current transfers Others

688908

864530

(` Crore) 992440 1164727 1263216 1398274 1658033

143891 131396 408676 4945

136935 174345 543347 9903

184501 210625 580898 16417

Total expenditure Gross capital formation out of budgetary resources of Central Government Consumption expenditure Current transfers Others

20.8

25.5

63.7 8.0 14.6 19.7

-4.8 32.7 33.0 100.3

Total expenditure Gross capital formation out of budgetary resources of Central Government Consumption expenditure Current transfers Others

20.8

25.5

9.8 1.7 9.1 0.1

-1.0 6.2 19.5 0.7

II. Gross capital formation out of budgetary resources of Central Government Memorandum items 1 2

2013-14 (BE)

14179 26229 15410 (increase over previous year)

34.7

39.0

-8.3

256368 234969 230262 255498 656300 756885 21798 15864 (Growth rate) 14.8 17.4 8.5

243775 269339 862641 22519

318892 315318 952913 70910

10.7

18.6

34.7 39.0 -8.3 20.8 9.3 11.0 6.9 13.0 15.3 65.8 32.8 -27.2 (Point contribution) 14.8 17.4 8.5

3.7 5.4 14.0 42.0

30.8 17.1 10.5 214.9

10.7

18.6

0.7 1.1 8.4 0.5

5.4 3.3 6.5 3.5

5.5 4.2 4.3 0.8

7.2 2.0 7.6 0.5

-1.8 2.2 8.6 -0.5

Source: Ministry of Finance, An Economic and Functional classification of the Central Government Budget-various issues. Notes : (i) Gross capital formation in this table includes loans given for capital formation on a gross basis. Consequently domestic capital receipts include loan repayments to the Central Government. (ii) Consumption expenditure is the expenditure on wages and salaries and commodities and services for current use. (iii) Interest payments, subsidies, pension etc. are treated as current transfers. (iv) Gross capital formation & total expenditure are exclusive of loans to States’/UTs’ against States’/UTs’ share in the small savings collection. (v) The figures of total expenditure of the Central Government as per economic and functional classification do not tally with figures given in the Budget documents. In the economic and functional classification, interest transfered to DCUs, loans written off etc, are excluded from the current account. In the capital account, expenditure financed out of Railways, Posts & Telecommunications’ own funds etc, are included. (vi) Point contribution refers to contribution of individual component to total growth.

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Table 2.12 : Receipts and Disbursements of State and Consolidated General Government Item 1 State Governments I. Total Receipts (A+B) A. Revenue Receipts (1+2) 1. Tax Receipts of which States’ Own Tax Revenue 2. Non-tax Receipts of which Interest Receipts B. Capital Receipts of which Recovery of Loans and Advances II. Total Disbursements (a+b+c) a) Revenue b) Capital c) Loans and Advances III. Revenue Deficit IV. Gross Fiscal Deficit General Government I. Total Receipts (A+B) A. Revenue Receipts (1+2) 1. Tax Receipts 2. Non-tax receipts of which: Interest receipts B. Capital Receipts of which: a) Disinvestment proceeds b) Recovery of loans & advances II. Total Disbursements (a+b+c) a) Revenue b) Capital c) Loans and Advances III. Revenue Deficit IV. Gross Fiscal Deficit

2013-14 (RE) 8

(` Crore) 2014-15 (BE) 9

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

765735 623747 437948

891292 694658 482983

1007633 768137 528075

1173575 935347 680198

1367917 1098531 812987

1547185 1241726 943797

286546 185799

321930 211675

363061 240062

460709 255149

557396 285544

655223 297929

753961 403615

851807 564167

12637 141987

16,356 196634

15,294 239497

15,625 238227

18,582 269385

24,061 305460

23,466 340059

24,475 376964

7770

11,072

8,088

4,995

17,157

7,231

8,930

4,550

752324 580805 157258 14261 -42943 75455

882332 681985 184376 15,971 -12,672 134589

1015330 799154 198689 17,487 31,017 188819

1158730 932297 207617 18,816 -3,051 161461

1351612 1074571 238150 38,891 -23,960 168353

1524371 1222292 272156 29,923 -19,434 194066

1826873 2173786 1486814 1796822 1083199 1232655

1861298 2192984 1482817 1746886 347904 423913 30,577 22,185 -3,997 -49,936 278156 297944

1,363,712 1,564,803 1,845,808 2,153,561 2,454,062 2,757,024 3,128,738 3,503,627 1,060,928 1,117,098 1,210,559 1,578,820 1,692,679 1,961,320 2,340,445 2,643,040 877,495 926,302 984,611 1,250,067 1,442,752 1,685,675 1,919,224 2,209,913 183,433 190,796 225,948 328,753 249,927 275,645 421,221 433,127 21,621 302,783

25,368 447,705

25,748 635,249

25,078 574,742

28,870 761,383

35,485 795,703

35,961 788,292

35,867 860,588

45,750 9,493

833 14,611

25,393 11,499

24,087 8,206

18,753 25,370

25,991 12,895

26,301 11,292

64,759 6,391

1,315,283 1,599,677 1,852,119 2,145,145 2,421,769 2,683,197 3,178,164 3,539,985 1,070,555 1,357,963 1,580,574 1,828,020 2,063,068 2,306,168 2,706,737 2,971,453 225,803 218,679 246,246 268,328 291,818 326,052 420,733 523,891 18,925 23,035 25,299 48,797 66,883 50,977 50,694 44,641 9,627 240,865 370,015 249,200 370,388 344,848 366,291 328,413 199,111 467,137 604,668 534,032 684,966 682,991 800,125 825,795 (As per cent to GDP)

State Governments I. Total Receipts (A+B) A. Revenue Receipts (1+2) 1. Tax Receipts of which States’ Own Tax Revenue 2. Non-tax Receipts of which Interest Receipts B. Capital Receipts of which Recovery of Loans and Advances

15.4 12.5 8.8

15.8 12.3 8.6

15.6 11.9 8.2

15.1 12.0 8.7

15.2 12.2 9.0

15.3 12.3 9.3

16.1 13.1 9.5

16.9 14.0 9.6

5.7 3.7

5.7 3.8

5.6 3.7

5.9 3.3

6.2 3.2

6.5 2.9

6.6 3.6

6.6 4.4

0.3 2.8

0.3 3.5

0.2 3.7

0.2 3.1

0.2 3.0

0.2 2.9

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.0 Contd....

A—53

A54

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 2.12 : Receipts and Disbursements of State and Consolidated General Government (Contd...) Item 1

II. Total Disbursements (a+b+c) a) Revenue b) Capital c) Loans and Advances III. Revenue Deficit IV. Gross Fiscal Deficit General Government I. Total Receipts (A+B) A. Revenue Receipts (1+2) 1. Tax Receipts 2. Non-tax receipts of which: Interest receipts B. Capital Receipts of which: a) Disinvestment proceeds b) Recovery of loans & advances II. Total Disbursements (a+b+c) a) Revenue b) Capital c) Loans and Advances III. Revenue Deficit IV. Gross Fiscal Deficit

(` Crore) 2014-15 (BE) 9

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14 (RE) 8

15.1 11.6 3.2 0.3 -0.9 1.5

15.7 12.1 3.3 0.3 -0.2 2.4

15.7 12.3 3.1 0.3 0.5 2.9

14.9 12.0 2.7 0.2 0.0 2.1

15.0 11.9 2.6 0.4 -0.3 1.9

15.1 12.1 2.7 0.3 -0.2 1.9

16.4 13.1 3.1 0.3 0.0 2.4

17.0 13.6 3.3 0.2 -0.4 2.3

27.3 21.3 17.6 3.7

27.8 19.8 16.5 3.4

28.5 18.7 15.2 3.5

27.7 20.3 16.1 4.2

27.2 18.8 16.0 2.8

27.3 19.4 16.7 2.7

27.6 20.6 16.9 3.7

27.2 20.5 17.2 3.4

0.4 6.1

0.5 8.0

0.4 9.8

0.3 7.4

0.3 8.5

0.4 7.9

0.3 6.9

0.3 6.7

0.9 0.2

0.0 0.3

0.4 0.2

0.3 0.1

0.2 0.3

0.3 0.1

0.2 0.1

0.5 0.0

26.4 21.5 4.5 0.4 0.2 4.0

28.4 24.1 3.9 0.4 4.3 8.3

28.6 24.4 3.8 0.4 5.7 9.3

27.6 23.5 3.4 0.6 3.2 6.9

26.9 22.9 3.2 0.7 4.1 7.6

26.5 22.8 3.2 0.5 3.4 6.8

28.0 23.8 3.7 0.4 3.2 7.0

27.5 23.1 4.1 0.3 2.6 6.4

Source: Reserve Bank of India. BE: Budget Estimates. RE: Revised Estimates Notes: (1) Disinvestment proceeds are inclusive of miscellaneous capital receipts of the states. (2) Negative (-) sign indicates surplus in deficit indicators. (3) Capital receipts include public accounts on a net basis. (4) Capital disbursements are exclusive of public accounts. (5) General Government consists of Central Government & State Government combined.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;54

Economic Survey 2014-15

A55

Table 3.1 : Employment in Organised Sectorsâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;Public and Private (Lakh persons as on March 31, 2012)

Public sector By branch Central Government State Governments Quasi-Governments Local bodies Total B . By industry 1 Agriculture, hunting etc. 2 Mining and quarrying 3 Manufacturing 4 Electricity, gas and water 5 Construction 6 Wholesale and retail trade 7 Transport, storage & communications 8 Finance, insurance, real estate etc. 9 Community, Social & personal services Total Private sector 1 Argiculture, hunting etc. 2 Mining and quarrying 3 Manufacturing 4 Electricity, gas and water 5 Construction 6 Wholesale and retail trade 7 Transport, storgage & communications 8 Finance, insurance,real estate etc. 9 Community, Social & personal services Total By sex Public sector Male Female Total Private sector Male Female Total Public and private sector Male Female Total A. 1 2 3 4

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012P

28.6 73.0 59.1 21.2 181.9

28.0 72.1 58.6 21.3 180.0

27.4 71.7 58.0 19.7 176.7

26.6 72.4 58.4 20.7 178.0

25.5 73.5 58.7 20.9 178.6

24.6 72.2 58.1 20.5 175.5

25.2 71.8 58.0 21.1 176.1

4.7 11.5 10.9 8.5 8.9 1.8 26.8 13.9 91.8 178.7

4.8 11.4 10.9 8.5 8.7 1.8 26.4 13.7 90.9 176.9

4.7 11.2 10.4 8.0 8.5 1.7 26.3 13.5 88.5 172.8

4.8 11.1 10.6 8.4 8.5 1.7 26.0 13.6 90.1 174.8

4.8 11.0 10.7 8.4 8.6 1.7 25.3 14.1 90.5 175.1

4.8 10.9 10.2 8.3 8.5 1.7 23.8 13.6 91.0 172.7

4.7 10.8 10.7 8.2 8.3 1.7 24.9 13.6 90.4 173.3

10.3 1.0 45.5 0.4 0.6 3.9 0.9 6.5 18.8 87.7

9.5 1.0 47.5 0.5 0.7 4.1 1.0 8.8 19.5 92.4

9.9 1.1 49.7 0.5 0.7 2.7 1.0 11.0 21.7 98.4

9.0 1.2 52.0 0.6 0.8 4.7 1.3 13.1 20.2 102.9

9.2 1.6 51.8 0.6 0.9 5.1 1.7 15.5 21.4 107.9

9.2 1.3 54.0 0.7 1.0 5.5 1.9 17.2 23.5 114.2

9.2 1.4 55.3 0.6 1.2 6.0 2.1 19.1 24.5 119.4

151.9 30.0 181.9

149.8 30.2 180.0

146.3 30.4 176.7

147.0 30.9 178.0

146.7 32.0 178.6

143.8 31.7 175.5

144.6 31.5 176.1

66.9 21.2 88.1

69.8 22.9 92.7

74.0 24.7 98.8

78.9 25.0 103.8

81.8 26.6 108.5

86.7 27.8 114.5

90.7 29.0 119.7

218.7 51.2 269.9

219.6 53.1 272.8

220.4 55.1 275.5

225.9 55.8 281.7

228.5 58.6 287.1

230.5 59.5 290.0

235.3 60.5 295.8

Source : Directorate General of Employment and Training, Ministry of Labour & Employment. P : Provisional Notes: 1. Excludes Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Lakshadweep as these are not yet covered under the programme. 2. Industry-wise break-up not tally with public sector, private sector and grand total due to non-inclusion of data as per NIC 1998, information in respect of J&K , Manipur and Daman & Diu not included in 2011.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;55

(Rs.Crore)

No. of Operating Enterprises

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

227

226

217

214

213

217

220

225

230

234

Capital Employed

504407

585484

661338

724009

792232

908007

1153833

1337821

1508177

1715684

Total Gross Turnover/ Revenue

744307

837295

964890

1096308

1271529

1244805

1498018

1822049

1945814

2061866

Total Net Income/Revenue

734944

829873

970356

1102772

1309639

1272219

1470569

1804614

1931186

2052349

Net Worth

341595

397275

454134

518485

583144

652993

709498

776162

850921

931018

Profit before dep., Impairment, Int., Exc. Items, Ex. Ord. Items, & Taxes (PBDIEET)

142554

150262

177990

195049

186836

211184

216602

250654

255936

292454

33147

34848

33141

36668

36780

41603

57118

63591

66109

69840

Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization

A—56

Deferred Revenue Expenditure(DRE)/Impairment

986

992

5841

5802

7661

9565

187

154

436

856

Profit before Interest, Exc. Items, Ex. Ord. Items & Taxes (PBIEET)

108420

114422

139008

152579

142395

160017

159298

186910

189390

221758

Interest

22869

23708

27481

32126

39300

36060

26521

36152

38184

53171

Profit before Exp. Items Ex. Or. Items & Taxes (PBEET)

85550

90714

111527

120453

103095

123957

132777

150758

151207

168586

Exceptional Items Profit before Ex. Or. Items & Tax. (PBET)

-1479

3957

-13525

-14222

85550

90714

111527

120453

103095

123957

134256

146801

164732

182809

Extra-Ordinary Items

-1075

-3192

-3880

-1570

-14600

-8264

-2695

-428

-1276

-1127

Profit Before Tax (PBT)

86625

93906

115407

122023

117695

132221

136951

147230

166008

183936

Tax Provisions

21662

24370

34352

40749

33828

40018

44871

48985

51025

55077

Net Profit/Loss after Tax from

64963

69536

81055

81274

83867

92203

92079

98245

114982

128859

-1

250

Overall Net Profit/Loss

64963

69536

81055

81274

83867

92203

92129

98246

114981

129109

Profit of Profit-making CPSEs

Continuing Operations Net Profit/Loss after Tax from Discontinuing Operations 74432

76382

89581

91577

98488

108434

113944

125929

143543

149164

Loss of Loss incurring CPSEs

9003

6845

8526

10303

14621

16231

-21816

-27683

-28562

-20055

Profit –making CPSEs (No.)

143

160

154

160

158

157

158

161

151

163

Loss –incurring CPSEs (No.)

Source : Department of Public Enterprises.

Economic Survey 2014-15

Particulars

A56

Table 3.2 : Performance of Central Public Sector Enterprises

Table 4.1 : Scheduled Commercial Banks: Seasonal Flow of Funds (` Crore) Items

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

347996

Sources 1. Increase in aggregate deposits

242388

394782

284494

374223

218449

496694

326878

374235

383090

458282

399896

555210

2. Increase in borrowings from RBI

2094

5633

-11728

2274

2716

-2333

6057

7713

5120

20640

-615

43092

3. Increase in other borrowings a

5900

1532

-19495

9836

15677

11386

40853

34260

-5384

20594

32942

-33569

-33371

4. Increase in other demand and time liabilities

-1886

11051

11635

10265

1068

11317

18100

13484

1706

36539

-2597

29294

2635

5. Residual (Net)

20077

-89931

31894

44908

47277

49845

6660

97635

-25620

-1757

36734

-58126

-62017

268573

323068

296800

439273

284744

571958

390158

525671

361505

518777

487615

492194

298334

Total Uses 1. Increase in bank credit

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;57

2. Increase in investments 3. Increase in cash in hand 4. Increase in balances with RBI Total

189112

224524

99121

370118

180440

51685

152743

517026

151888

496718

341562

392075

123970

12844

181852

205675

12667

89454

27413

200747

35421

209966

58351

105416

101300

150982

5438

-3201

4518

779

4475

293

5665

119

4660

-299

2256

3123

3392

61179

-80107

-12514

55709

10375

27398

31003

-26896

-5010

-35993

38381

-4304

19989

268573

323068

296800

439273

284744

571958

390158

525671

361505

518777

487615

492194

298334

Economic Survey 2014-15

Source: Reserve Bank of India a : Excludes borrowings from RBI, IDBI, EXIM Bank and NABARD. H1 - April to September H2 - October to March Notes : 1. Data on aggregate deposits also reflect redemption of Resurgent India Bonds (RIBs) of ` 22693 crore, since October 1, 2003. 2. Residual (net) is the balance of Uses of Funds over Sources of Funds and includes borrowings from RBI, IDBI, EXIM Bank and NABARD. 3. The data relate to last reporting Fridays. 4. Figures may not add up to totals due to rounding off.

A57

(` Crore) 2008-09 Mar 28 to Mar 27

2009-10 Mar 27 to Mar 26

2010-11 Mar 26 to Mar 25

2011-12 Mar 25 to Mar 23

2012-13 Mar 23 to Mar 22

2013-14 Mar 22 to Mar 21

1. Demand deposits

94579

-1225

122525

-3904

-16376

36969

51622

57222

771143

depositsa, b

490427

638395

536191

719048

717488

804402

903484

573393

7565032

585006

637170

658716

715143

701113

841371

955106

630615

8336175

-2245

7728

-11686

4989

3723

12833

20026

50458

92071

2. Time

3. Aggregate depositsb 4. Borrowings from RBI 5. Cash in hand & balances with RBI

2014-15 Outstanding Mar 21 as on to Dec 26 Dec 26(P) 2014(P)

78805

-16690

48492

42541

9891

-36642

39456

39694

401908

6. Investments in Govt.securities

182603

197124

222609

118753

237870

268636

207541

226566

2437760

7. Bank credit

430724

413636

469239

697295

669769

648607

733637

352606

6346702

Source: Reserve Bank Of India.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;58

Provisional

Revised in line with the new accounting standards and are consistent with the methodology suggested by the Working Group on Money Supply : Analytics and Methodology of Compilation (June 1998) from 1998-99 onwards. The revision is in respect of pension and provident funds with commercial banks which are classified as other demand and time liabilities and includes those banks which have reported such changes so far.

Data also reflect redemption of Resurgent India Bonds of ` 22693 billion, since October 2003.

Economic Survey 2014-15

Outstanding as on March 28, 2008

Items

A58

Table 4.2 : Scheduled Commercial Banks: Variations in Selected Items

A59

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 4.3 : Scheduled Commercial Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Outstanding Advances against Sensitive Commodities

(` crore) Commodities

1. Paddy and rice

March 2010

March 2011

March 2012

March 2013

March October 2014 2014

11099

14324

18314

23218

25911

24803

Variation during March 2014 over March 2013

Variation during October 2014 over March 2014

2693

-1108 2631

2. Wheat

2370

2187

3000

4016

4146

6777

130

3. Pulses

1443

1594

3594

4031

3368

3552

-663

184

4. Other food grains

1318

1563

2303

2696

3395

3497

699

102

5. Sugar

9219

10123

15718

15451

15940

13518

489

-2422

163

167

330

446

402

260

-44

-142

6. Khandsari 7. Gur

299

108

212

361

410

355

-55

8. Groundnut

437

527

478

558

658

1654

100

996

9. Rapeseed/Mustardseed

514

328

528

478

790

855

312

10. Linseed 11. Castorseed

-1

118

163

298

651

617

353

-34

12. Cottonseed

205

242

259

407

375

254

-32

-121

13. Soyabean

736

1115

1359

1200

1778

797

578

-981

14. Other oilseeds

325

317

775

880

903

851

-52

15. Groundnut oil

141

314

810

861

834

765

-27

-69

16. Rapeseed/Mustard

242

312

386

631

383

369

-248

-14

17. Castor oil

328

322

447

492

435

-57

456

-11

19. Cottonseed oil

218

300

639

423

731

584

308

-147

20. Soyabean oil

788

839

1321

1959

1504

1297

-455

-207

21. Other Veg. oil

987

1083

1587

2012

1569

1233

-443

-336

18. Linseed oil

22. Vanaspati

178

418

484

338

537

383

199

-154

23. Cotton & Kapas

6655

8636

15559

15903

16602

16666

699

24. Raw Jute

1380

426

639

521

551

641

39178

47418

68940

77191

82009

80232

4818

-1777

Total

Source : Reserve Bank of India. Notes : 1. Effective from October 10, 2000 all commodities except unreleased stocks of levy sugar stand exempted from selective credit controls. 2. Figures may not add up to total due to rounding.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;59

A60

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 4.4 : Branch Expansion of Public Sector Banks and Other Commercial Banks All Branches as on June 30 Number of 2012 2013 2014 branches

A. SBI and Its Associates B. Nationalised Banks (including IDBI Ltd.) (i) Nationalised Banks (ii) Other Public Sector Banks C. Regional Rural Banks Total of Public Sector Banks (including RRBs) D. Private Sector Banks E. Foreign Banks All Scheduled Commercial Banks ( A to E) Non-Scheduled Commercial Bank Local Area Banks All Commercial Banks

19,167

20,288

21,684

22,043

Rural Branches

% of Rural branches

7,863

35.7

49,028

52,975

59,270

61,164

20,802

34.0

48,063

51,881

57,853

59,544

20,467

34.4

965

1,094

1,417

1,620

335

20.7

16,876

17,759

18,823

19,082

14,242

74.6

85,071

91,022

99,777

102,289

42,907

41.9

13,712

16,100

18,291

18,859

4,042

21.4

320

332

317

321

2.2

99,103

107,454

118,385

121,469

46,956

38.7

30.3

99,158

107,514

118,450

121,535

46,976

38.7

Source : Reserve Bank of India 1) ‘Number of branches’ exclude ‘Administrative Offices’. 2) Population groups are defined as follows: ‘Rural’ includes centres with population of less than 10,000, ‘Semi-Urban’ includes centres with population of 10,000 and above but less than of one lakh, ‘Urban’ includes centres with population of one lakh and above but less than of ten lakhs, and ‘Metropolitan’ includes centres with population of 10 lakhs and above. All population figures are as per census 2001. 3) ‘Other Public Sector Banks’ comprises IDBI BANK LIMITED and BHARATIYA MAHILA BANK LTD. 4) ‘Non-Scheduled Commercial Bank’ comprises ‘Local Area Banks’ only 5) ‘All Commercial Banks’ comprises of ‘All Scheduled Commercial Banks’ and ‘Non-Scheduled Commercial Banks’. 6) The prescribed timeline for submission of data by banks is 15 days from the end of the quarter. As such, the last date for submission of December 31, 2014 data by banks to the RBI is January 14, 2015. 7) The practice of classifying ‘Private Sector Banks’ into ‘Old Private Sector Banks’ and ‘New Private Sector Banks’ has been discontinued. 8) Source: Master Office File (MOF) System, Department of Statistics and Information Management, Reserve Bank of India, as on December 31, 2014. MOF data are dynamic in nature. It is updated based on information as received from banks. It remains provisional because reporting of good many newly opened branches in recent period (Say quarter ending December 2014) remain in the pipeline before capturing it in the MOF System.

A—60

Economic Survey 2014-15

A61

Table 4.5 : Advances to Agriculture and Other Priority Sectors by Public Sector Banks SECTORS

Amount Outstanding (` ` Crore)

Number of Accounts (In Thousand) March March March March 2010 2011 2012 2013

1. Agriculture 31616 33910 38461 1 (a) Direct Financea 31015 33214 37586 600 696 875 1 (b) Indirect Financea 2. Small Scale Industriesb 3. Micro & Small Enterprises 7217 7398 7129 4. Setting up of Industrial Estates 5. Small road & water transport Operators 6. Retail Trade 7. Small Business 8. Professional & self employed persons 9. Micro Credit 1354 864 1222 10. Education 1911 2211 2373 11. Consumption 12. State sponsored Corpns/Organisations for on lending to Other Priority Sector 13. State sponsored organisation for SC/ST 14 9 25 purchase & supply of inputs & marketing of outputs 14. Housing Loans 3671 3945 3973 15. Funds provided to RRBs 16. Advances to Self Help Groups 17. Advances to Software Industries 18. Advances to Food & Agro Processing Sector 19. Investment in Venture Capital 20. Total Priority Sector Advances c 45783 48339 53183 21. ANBC d

March 2010

March 2011

March 2012

March 2013

March 2014

43947 43167 780

372463 265826 106637

414973 300190 114783

479400 367052 112348

531701 447094 84607

702541 525652 176889

7478

276319

369430

396993

478361

593410

2479

5916 35855

7243 41341

6631 46727

50927

55112

114

173184

188472

194283

213892

235484

3929

58804

863778 1021495 1124148 1283411 1602907 2078397 2493499 3018476 3530808 4110591

Percentage to ANBC 1. Agriculture 1 (a) Direct Financea 1 (b) Indirect Financea 2. Small Scale Industriesb 3. Micro & Small Enterprises 4. Setting up of Industrial Estates 5. Small road & water transport Operators 6. Retail Trade 7. Small Business 8. Professional & self employed persons 9. Micro Credit 10. Education 11. Consumption 12. State sponsored corpns/Organisations for on lending to Other Priority Sector 13. State sponsored organisation for SC/ST purchase & supply of inputs & marketing of outputs 14. Housing Loans 15. Funds provided to RRBs 16. Advances to Self Help Groups 17. Advances to Software Industries 18. Advances to Food & Agro Processing Sector 19. Investment in Venture Capital 20. Total Priority Sector Advances

17.9 12.8 5.1

16.6 12.0 4.6

15.9 12.2 3.7

15.1 12.7 2.4

17.1 12.8 4.3

13.3

14.8

13.2

13.5

14.4

0.3 1.7

0.2 1.5

1.4

1.3

8.3

7.6

6.4

6.1

5.7

41.6

41.0

37.2

36.3

39.0

Source: Reserve Bank of India a : Excludes advances to plantations other than development finance c : Total priority sector advances is the total of items 1 to 12 & 14 to 17 and half of item 13 d : ANBC stands for Adjusted Net Bank Credit

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;61

: Includes small business

Deposits (` ` crore)

Number of Offices

Credit (` ` crore)

Share of priority sectors in total bank credit (per cent)

September 26, 2014

March 31, 2014

September 26, 2014

March 31, 2014

September 26, 2014

March 31, 2014

September 26, 2014

2,452

2,588

997

1,033

6,719

4,100

343,013

133,187

388,940

147,649

7,109

6,346

1,700

1,784

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

Andhra Pradesh

Arunachal Pradesh

Assam

1,290

1,358

72,677

73,066

24,775

24,820

Bihar

3,531

3,656

164,203

170,766

48,838

48,033

Chandigarh

276

284

38,631

38,880

51,535

52,819

Chhattisgarh

1,261

1,309

75,231

76,267

43,973

44,491

Dadra & Nagar Haveli

1,791

2,060

542

578

Daman & Diu

2,484

2,524

482

486

458

473

37,269

38,808

10,645

9,762

1 1 Gujarat

4,791

4,881

338,472

349,628

239,813

235,161

1 2 Haryana

2,608

2,723

130,549

135,559

112,542

111,101

1 3 Himachal Pradesh

1,076

1,109

46,775

48,430

16,648

16,132

1 0 Goa

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;62

436

451

18,524

19,685

5,042

5,167

1 5 Jharkhand

1 4 Jammu & Kashmir

1,924

1,990

110,357

115,098

32,064

31,635

1 6 Karnataka

5,409

5,609

364,745

374,903

264,996

264,157

1 7 Kerala

3,209

3,326

168,241

176,546

123,257

122,526

711

697

1 9 Madhya Pradesh

3,752

3,875

196,290

213,212

110,949

109,109

2 0 Maharashtra

7,838

7,994

1,380,302

1,301,963

1,243,913

1,148,224

4,347

4,031

1,561

1,575

188

192

12,524

12,432

3,298

3,488

3,054

2,746

1,063

1,071

1 8 Lakshadweep

2 1 Manipur 2 2 Meghalaya 2 3 Mizoram 2 4 Nagaland

109

111

5,358

5,122

1,896

1,878

2 5 NCT of Delhi

2,279

2,331

611,874

620,422

606,879

564,514

2 6 Odisha

2,627

2,725

136,012

145,455

59,763

55,061

132

141

7,284

7,721

5,188

5,153

2 7 Puducherry

Contd....

Economic Survey 2014-15

March 31, 2014

A62

Table 4.6 : State-wise Distribution of Bank-offices, Aggregate Deposits, Gross Bank Credit and Percentage Share of Advances to Priority Sectors by Public Sector Banks S l State/ Union Territory No.

Deposits (` ` crore)

Number of Offices

Credit (` ` crore)

Share of priority sectors in total bank credit (per cent)

March 31, 2014

September 26, 2014

March 31, 2014

September 26, 2014

March 31, 2014

September 26, 2014

March 31, 2014

September 26, 2014

2 8 Punjab

4,000

4,153

195,921

201,686

153,964

147,434

2 9 Rajasthan

3,722

3,862

156,592

161,859

140,794

141,964

4,308

4,395

1,207

1,176

5,948

6,170

348,267

335,303

411,961

402,277

2,855

220,076

244,987

190

205

9,525

9,671

2,572

2,573

3 4 Uttar Pradesh

9,671

10,071

495,512

499,857

215,727

208,688

3 5 Uttarakhand

1,297

1,358

68,103

69,986

22,352

21,736

3 0 Sikkim 3 1 Tamil Nadu 3 2 Telangana 3 3 Tripura

3 6 West Bengal All India

5,110

5,218

392,732

417,954

240,581

238,514

80,312

83,003

5,951,241

5,998,925

4,590,516

4,416,817

A—63

Economic Survey 2014-15

Source: Reserve Bank of India na : Not Available. Notes: 1) ‘Public Sector banks’ comprises of State Bank of India and its associates, Nationalised banks and ‘Other Public Sector Banks’. ‘Other Public Sector Banks’ comprises IDBI Bank Limited and Bharatiya Mahila Bank Ltd. 2) Aggregate deposits represent the demand and time liabilities of a bank (excluding inter-bank deposits). The Gross Bank Credit represents bank credit (excluding inter bank advances) as per form ‘A’ return under section 42 (2) of RBI Act 1934 together with outstanding amount of bills rediscounted with RBI/ financial institutions. 3) Figures may not add up to totals because of rounding. 4) Data for Andhra Pradesh up to quarter ended March 2014 covers undivided Andhra Pradesh. 5) Source: Quarterly Statistics on Deposits and Credit of Scheduled Commercial Banks collected by Department of Statistics and Information Management (DSIM), RBI from scheduled commercial banks through BSR-7 return 6) Share of Priority sector advances based on the Annual returns received from Public Sector Banks, for March 31, 2014, Andhra Pradesh covers Telengana also.

A63

A64

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 5.1 : Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices Primary articles Total Food articles Total Foodgrains

Fuel

Non- Mine- powerfood rals light & artilubricles cants

Manufactured products Total

All

Food Tex- ChemiBasic Mach- compro- tiles cals & metals, inery modiducts chemical alloys & maties products & metal chine products tools

Weight-Base (1993-94)=100 22.0

15.4

5.0

6.1

0.5

14.2

63.8

11.5

9.8

11.9

8.3

8.4

100.0

Weight-Base (2004-05)=100 20.1

14.3

4.1

4.3

1.5

14.9

65.0

10.0

7.3

12.0

10.7

8.9

100.0

1994-95

121

115

119

137

104

109

117

113

128

121

116

109

116.9

1995-96

125

124

127

129

115

123

118

126

130

123

113

122.2

1996-97

136

138

144

133

109

130

126

130

115

136

128

117

128.8

1997-98

142

144

139

142

100

148

129

137

117

137

132

115

134.6

1998-99

153

157

167

146

118

153

135

150

114

152

133

116

141.7

1999-00

159

168

176

141

104

193

139

150

116

160

137

116

150.9

2000-01

162

168

170

149

118

223

144

145

122

167

142

127

159.2

2001-02

168

177

170

150

120

231

144

145

116

171

140

130

161.8

2002-03

178

176

183

118

256

152

158

128

178

150

130

172.3

2003-04

181

178

175

191

148

263

162

174

139

179

183

134

180.3

2004-05

183

184

179

177

249

290

169

174

131

186

214

144

189.5

2005-06

104

105

113

119

117

104

102

100

105

103

105

105.7

2006-07

118

119

126

107

135

119

110

107

101

110

116

112

112.8

2007-08

129

126

137

124

173

127

118

116

101

116

138

115

121.5

2008-09

136

152

125

168

123

120

123

103

116

130

118

123.5

2009-10

166

164

172

150

232

140

126

142

112

120

133

120

136.3

2010-11

188

179

176

191

267

158

136

145

132

129

148

123

149.5

2011-12

208

197

186

190

359

178

143

154

128

139

163

126

161.0

2012-13

223

214

216

208

352

192

149

166

133

146

165

129

170.1

2013-14

239

235

231

218

346

214

154

169

143

153

168

133

180.3

Last week of (1993-94 = 100)

Last month of (2004-05 = 100)

Average of weeks (1993-94 = 100) 1994-95

116

113

115

124

105

109

112

114

118

117

108

106

112.6

1995-96

125

122

135

115

122

118

129

127

120

112

121.6

1996-97

136

137

138

134

107

126

124

125

119

131

126

116

127.2

1997-98

139

141

139

138

100

144

128

135

115

137

131

115

132.8

1998-99

156

159

152

111

148

134

150

114

146

133

116

140.7

1999-00

158

165

176

143

110

162

137

151

115

155

135

116

145.3

2000-01

163

170

174

147

113

208

142

146

120

164

140

123

155.7

2001-02

168

176

172

153

119

227

144

146

119

169

141

129

161.3

2002-03

174

179

174

165

119

239

148

153

122

174

145

130

166.8

2003-04

181

176

186

122

255

156

167

132

177

168

133

175.9

2004-05

188

186

177

188

255

280

166

175

136

182

203

140

187.2

Average of months (2004-05 = 100) 2005-06

104

105

107

115

114

102

101

104

102

104

104.5

2006-07

114

116

122

102

137

121

108

107

101

109

112

110

111.4

2007-08

124

131

114

153

121

113

110

102

113

123

114

116.6

2008-09

138

135

145

129

187

135

120

103

118

138

117

126.0

2009-10

155

166

136

203

132

123

136

107

118

130

118

130.8

2010-11

182

180

174

167

253

148

130

141

120

124

141

121

143.3 Contd...

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;64

A65

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 5.1 : Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices (Contd....) Primary articles Total Food articles Total Foodgrains

Fuel

Non- Mine- powerfood rals light & artilubricles cants

Manufactured products Total

All

Food Tex- ChemiBasic Mach- compro- tiles cals & metals, inery modiducts chemical alloys & maties products & metal chine products tools

Weight-Base (1993-94)=100 22.0

15.4

5.0

6.1

0.5

14.2

63.8

11.5

9.8

11.9

8.3

8.4

100.0

Weight-Base (2004-05)=100 20.1

14.3

4.1

4.3

1.5

14.9

65.0

10.0

7.3

12.0

10.7

8.9

100.0

2011-12

200

193

181

183

321

169

140

151

129

135

156

125

156.1

2012-13

220

212

207

202

347

186

147

163

131

144

166

128

167.6

2013-14

242

239

226

213

346

205

151

169

139

149

165

132

177.6

2013-14 April

227

220

217

210

336

194

149

167

134

146

164

130

171.3

May

227

223

217

209

320

192

149

167

136

146

163

131

171.4

June

234

231

221

209

331

195

150

168

136

146

163

131

173.2

July

240

239

224

211

338

200

150

168

137

147

162

131

175.5

August

252

226

210

364

205

151

169

138

148

163

131

179.0

September

253

228

213

360

211

152

170

140

149

164

131

180.7

October

251

252

228

213

355

210

152

171

140

149

165

132

180.7

November

255

256

230

216

353

210

152

171

140

149

165

132

181.5

December

244

240

230

216

355

211

153

170

140

150

165

133

179.6

January

239

234

229

216

349

212

153

169

141

151

166

132

179.0

February

239

233

230

218

352

213

154

169

142

152

167

133

179.5

March

239

235

231

218

346

214

154

169

143

153

168

133

180.3

242

239

230

217

346

212

155

172

143

153

167

133

180.8

2014-15 April May

247

245

231

219

346

212

155

173

144

153

167

134

182.0

June

250

232

216

347

212

155

173

144

153

167

135

183.0

July

257

259

235

217

347

215

156

175

144

154

167

135

185.0

August

261

265

237

219

341

214

156

176

144

154

167

135

185.9

September

258

262

237

215

337

213

156

174

144

154

166

135

185.0

October

253

259

236

210

324

211

156

174

143

153

167

135

183.7

November(P)

252

258

236

209

327

199

155

173

143

153

166

135

181.5

December(P)

249

253

235

209

326

195

155

173

142

153

165

135

179.8

Source : Office of the Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce & Industry. P : Provisional

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;65

Pulses

Tea

Raw cotton

Raw jute

Weight-Base: (1993-94=100) 2.45 Weight-Base: (2004-05=100) 1.79

1.38 1.12

0.6 0.72

0.16 0.11

1.36 0.70

0.11 0.06

1.03 0.40

1.75 2.09

6.99 9.36

3.93 2.09

2.76 3.04

3.31 1.38

0.9 1.23

0.38 0.26

3.69 2.66

1.73 1.39

Last week of (Base:1993-94=100) 1994-95 112 1995-96 120 1996-97 130 1997-98 135 1998-99 161 1999-00 166 2000-01 165 2001-02 162 2002-03 168 2003-04 165 2004-05 170

113 119 156 137 171 180 172 177 178 188 186

124 147 145 152 152 169 182 176 177 172 168

76 93 113 162 123 104 116 91 104 101 114

173 131 136 166 155 145 156 123 165 185 141

140 261 na 117 108 156 171 187 131 141 191

136 130 130 138 148 139 140 145 199 180 167

106 107 125 144 144 156 185 181 181 198 232

106 106 129 146 144 204 240 243 287 287 333

110 114 126 134 154 158 149 145 129 148 174

118 111 112 120 135 111 105 119 151 161 147

152 141 135 143 143 140 153 139 153 183 153

134 141 148 150 155 155 157 161 162 168 172

121 164 150 152 160 170 169 184 165 175 199

122 130 137 137 142 155 160 166 169 169 175

127 140 130 121 128 127 153 146 147 149 164

112 119 126 133 134 136 137 137 150 201 244

117 129 140 151 173 173 172 205 218

126 147 148 159 199 191 210 233 228

92 97 110 156 129 138 145 212 170

91 99 122 124 149 303 196 214 234

159 118 130 142 173 240 227 273 270

94 132 147 141 153 171 231 266 197

118 118 136 151 163 185 210 190 190

122 123 133 124 147 168 193 214 237

112 97 93 126 178 164 169 184 178

93 107 127 114 114 129 142 147 147

98 98 100 102 123 179 150 164 185

98 97 98 105 109 128 131 134 142

114 120 110 125 157 182 171 182 187

103 105 107 108 110 121 141 152 153

106 130 138 148 151 154 163 172 164

97 111 138 126 127 143 158 158 160

109 112 137 138 152 175 177 175 176 181 184

122 135 151 146 160 166 180 190 181 177 174

82 103 105 160 150 152 128 117 118 109 131

154 159 133 155 167 147 157 149 142 181 166

120 189 189 102 108 113 150 182 154 137 160

123 135 135 134 151 140 140 144 169 181 182

105 106 118 140 144 149 161 182 181 194 223

106 106 123 139 143 160 226 240 255 274 315

119 113 119 134 154 156 153 146 135 139 163

111 117 115 114 139 122 103 113 138 158 156

136 147 137 141 142 141 150 148 145 166 167

120 139 146 149 156 155 156 159 162 166 173

110 148 153 136 151 161 163 181 169 160 181

116 129 129 136 138 143 158 161 168 169 171

112 130 134 129 131 128 137 149 145 147 153

106 117 124 130 133 134 137 137 143 180 232

GroundCoal Mineral Sugar, nut mining oils khandsari seed & gur

Edible Cotton Cotton Jute,hemp Fertili-Cement Iron,steel oils yarn cloth & mesta zers & ferro (Mills) textiles alloys 3.72 6.88 18

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;66

Last month of (Base:2004-05=100) 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

105 115 131 151 163 167 175 206 232

Average of weeks (Base:1993-94=100) 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

111 117 129 134 146 171 168 167 166 169 168

Contd....

Economic Survey 2014-15

Wheat

A66

Table 5.2 : Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Selected Commodities and Commodity Groups Rice

Table 5.2 : Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Selected Commodities and Commodity Groups (Contd..) Rice

Wheat

Pulses

Tea

Raw cotton

Raw jute

Weight-Base: (1993-94=100) 2.45 Weight-Base: (2004-05=100) 1.79

1.38 1.12

0.6 0.72

0.16 0.11

1.36 0.70

0.11 0.06

1.03 0.40

1.75 2.09

6.99 9.36

3.93 2.09

2.76 3.04

3.31 1.38

0.9 1.23

0.38 0.26

3.69 2.66

1.73 1.39

3.72 6.88

105 110 122 141 158 167 172 194 226

105 125 134 148 166 171 168 194 212

113 149 145 156 191 197 202 241 228

89 104 104 153 174 148 151 199 196

90 97 112 141 139 199 225 206 237

135 136 122 138 160 211 223 242 262

97 110 140 144 148 165 200 247 219

118 118 122 151 156 165 191 209 191

117 127 126 142 136 157 184 202 226

109 107 91 107 162 161 168 186 183

94 102 116 122 114 121 136 148 147

95 98 101 103 111 142 155 157 175

99 97 99 103 107 115 132 134 139

112 115 111 117 146 165 176 178 184

102 104 106 107 108 117 133 149 152

102 119 138 139 149 151 157 169 167

100 105 119 137 124 136 150 160 158

208 211 219 226 232 231 232 233 230 230 232 232

204 201 205 207 209 213 214 217 220 220 221 218

233 232 230 227 222 226 229 230 229 227 224 228

223 210 211 210 204 206 197 187 180 181 177 170

213 213 225 240 251 255 250 241 229 242 244 234

272 268 258 254 244 245 260 254 272 274 273 270

270 260 243 229 218 210 215 204 194 194 196 197

190 190 192 192 192 192 192 192 192 190 190 190

211 208 212 220 224 233 231 231 233 235 236 237

185 185 185 185 185 186 185 184 182 179 177 178

147 147 146 145 146 147 148 149 148 147 147 147

166 168 169 171 174 177 178 176 175 176 180 185

136 137 138 138 138 139 140 141 141 141 141 142

183 184 183 183 182 181 183 184 185 186 188 187

152 152 151 152 152 152 153 153 153 153 153 153

171 171 171 172 168 165 164 164 165 164 165 164

158 157 156 156 155 156 157 157 158 159 160 161

234 238 241 245 247 247 247 245 240

213 208 207 209 210 210 210 212 215

229 231 231 234 239 241 238 241 243

193 200 198 195 177 175 177 171 172

229 231 230 228 221 215 195 192 192

277 290 293 279 267 268 277 290 299

200 203 206 205 209 221 217 212 206

190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190

233 234 234 238 237 236 231 213 206

184 184 185 189 190 189 188 185 180

146 146 145 146 146 143 144 144 144

186 189 188 187 185 181 178 178 175

143 143 143 144 144 144 145 145 145

189 189 190 191 191 191 191 190 191

154 154 154 154 154 155 155 155 155

163 164 166 166 167 173 173 171 167

159 160 160 160 159 159 159 158 157

GroundCoal Mineral Sugar, nut mining oils khandsari seed & gur

Edible Cotton Cotton Jute,hemp Fertili-Cement Iron,steel oils yarn cloth & mesta zers & ferro (Mills) textiles alloys

Average of months (Base:2004-05=100) 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;67

A67

Source : Office of the Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce & Industry. P : Provisional na : Not Available a : composite index of Iron & Steel and Ferro Alloy for base 1993-94 and Iron & semis, steel long, steel flat, stainless steel & alloys and ferro alloys for base 2004-05

Economic Survey 2014-15

2013-14 April May June July August September October November December January February March 2014-15 April May June July August September October November(P) December(P)

A68

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 5.3 : All India Consumer Price Index Numbers Industrial Workers (CPI-IW)

Base Description 1

New Series (CPI-NS)

(1982=100 & 2001=100) Food Non-Food

Agricultural Labourers (CPI-AL)

(2010=100)

Rural Labourers (CPI-RL)

(1986-87=100) (1986-87=100)

General

Rural

Urban

All-India

General

337 369 388 445 446 453 466 477 495 506 527 a 126 136 153 176 194 206 230 259

280 307 336 372 404 433 460 488 507 538 563 a 124 130 138 151 168 185 202 216

313 342 366 414 428 444 463 482 500 520 542 a 125 133 145 163 180 195 215 236

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 113.1 124.5 136.4

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 110.4 121.8 133.3

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 111.9 123.3 135.0

237 256 264 293 306 305 309 319 331 340 353 380 409 450 513 564 611 672 750

238 b 256 266 294 307 307 311 321 333 342 355 382 409 451 513 564 611 673 751

339 373 401 431 446 446 462 479 494 502 115 a 129 141 156 181 196 212 240 258

292 322 352 391 418 444 476 498 517 555 122 a 125 134 141 161 176 192 210 223

319 351 380 414 434 445 468 487 504 525 119 a 127 137 148 170 185 201 224 239

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 106.9 116.2 128.3 139.7

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 103.9 114.6 126.5 136.0

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 105.6 115.5 127.5 138.1

237 262 272 296 306 300 309 324 332 340 358 392 423 463 536 585 625 704 763

238 262 273 296 307 302 311 326 334 342 360 393 423 464 536 584 626 705 765

245 248 255 259 262 263 268

210 211 210 214 216 217 218

226 228 231 235 237 238 241

128.7 129.8 132.1 133.8 135.4 137.8 139.5

127.4 128.4 130.5 132.1 133.6 134.0 135.1

128.1 129.2 131.4 133.1 134.6 136.2 137.6

711 719 729 740 754 759 766

711 720 730 741 753 759 766

Average of Months 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Last Month of 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2013-14 April May June July August September October

Contd....

A—68

Economic Survey 2014-15

A69

Table 5.3 : All India Consumer Price Index Numbers (Contd...) Industrial Workers (CPI-IW)

Base Description 1

New Series (CPI-NS)

(1982=100 & 2001=100) Food Non-Food

Agricultural Labourers (CPI-AL)

(2010=100)

Rural Labourers (CPI-RL)

(1986-87=100) (1986-87=100)

General

Rural

Urban

All-India

General

November December January February March

273 262 256 256 258

217 219 221 223 223

243 239 237 238 239

141.7 140.1 139.2 138.9 139.7

136.4 135.3 135.0 135.3 136.0

139.4 138.0 137.4 137.3 138.1

777 765 757 757 763

777 766 759 759 765

2014-15 April May June July August September October November December

264 267 270 280 282 280 280 280 277

223 224 225 228 228 230 230 230 232

242 244 246 252 253 253 253 253 253

140.5 141.3 142.5 145.0 146.6 147.0 147.2 147.5 146.7(P)

137.2 138.1 139.4 141.9 143.0 142.5 142.7 142.8 142.5(P)

139.1 139.9 141.2 143.7 145.0 145.0 145.2 145.5 144.9(P)

771 777 785 799 808 811 813 813 807

773 780 787 801 810 813 815 816 810

Source: 1. Labour Bureau, Shimla for consumer price indices for Industrial Workers (IW), Agricultural Labourers (AL) and Rural Labourers (RL), 2. C.S.O. for consumer price indices for new series (CPI-NS). P : Provisional. a

: The current series of CPI for Industrial Workers with 2001 base was introduced w.e.f. January, 2006 and the figures from 2005-06 (last month) are based on new base. The earlier series on base 1982=100 was simultaneously discontinued. The conversion factor from the current to the old series is 4.63 in case of the General Index, and 4.58 for Food Index. b : Average index from November, 1995 to March 1996. Notes : 1. Weights of CPI-IW for food & non-food with base 1982=100 are 57% & 43% respectively and with base 2001=100 are 46.20% & 53.80% respectively. 2. CPI- New Series (Rural, Urban & All-India) was introduced w.e.f. January 2011. The CPI-UNME has since been totally discontinued.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;69

A70

Economic Survey 2014-15

Table 5.4 : Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Relative Prices of Manufactured and Agricultural Products General Index of Wholesale Price

Price Index of Manufactured Products

Price Index of Agricultural Products a

Manufactured Price Index as per cent of Agricultural Price Index

Weight (Base: 1993-94)

100.00

63.75

21.54

Col.3/ col.4*100

Weight (Base: 2004-05)

100.00

64.97

18.59

112.6 121.6 127.2 132.8 140.7 145.3 155.7 161.3 166.8 175.9 187.3

112.3 121.9 124.4 128.0 133.6 137.2 141.7 144.3 148.1 156.5 166.3

116.0 126.0 136.4 140.3 157.2 159.1 163.7 169.5 175.3 182.9 186.7

96.8 96.8 91.2 91.2 85.0 86.2 86.6 85.1 84.5 85.6 89.1

104.5 111.4 116.6 126.0 130.8 143.3 156.1 167.6 177.6

102.4 108.2 113.4 120.4 123.1 130.1 139.5 147.1 151.5

103.4 112.5 121.5 133.5 151.0 176.6 190.4 209.6 233.0

99.1 96.3 93.4 90.2 81.7 73.7 73.3 70.2 65.0

171.3 171.4 173.2 175.5 179.0 180.7 180.7 181.5 179.6 179.0 179.5 180.3

149.1 149.3 149.5 149.9 150.6 151.5 152.1 152.3 152.5 152.9 153.6 154.2

217.5 219.8 225.9 232.2 242.7 243.8 242.8 246.9 234.6 229.7 229.2 230.7

68.6 67.9 66.2 64.5 62.1 62.1 62.6 61.7 65.0 66.6 67.0 66.8

180.8 182.0 183.0 185.0 185.9 185.0 183.7 181.5 179.8

154.6 155.1 155.4 156.0 156.1 156.0 155.9 155.4 154.9

233.9 238.7 242.3 249.2 254.7 251.3 247.5 246.3 242.7

66.1 65.0 64.1 62.6 61.3 62.1 63.0 63.1 63.8

Ye a r

(Base : 1993-94 = 100) 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 (Base : 2004-05 = 100) 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2013-14 April May June July August September October November December January February March 2014-15 April May June July August September October November(P) December(P)

Source : Office of the Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce & Industry. P : Provisional a : Composite Index of the sub-groups - (Food Articles and Non-food Articles).

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;70

Table 5.5 : Minimum Support Price/Procurement Price for Crops (Crop Year Basis) (`/quintal) Commodities 1

A—71

1999-00 2002-03 b

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2014-15

205 ... 225 180 ... 180 180 180 200 450 ... 480 480 480 23.00 620 750 580 320 600 600 350 400 575 570 1600 ... ... ...

490 520 580 415 ... 415 415 415 430 1015 ... 1105 1105 1105 56.10 1575 1775 1155 750 1100 1155 755 845 1100 1065 3100 3325 1205 915

550 580 630 490 ... 495 490 490 505 1225 ... 1325 1335 1335 69.50 1695 1895 1375 850 1340 1210 805 895 1305 1305 3300 3550 1455 1120

560 590 640 515 ... 515 515 525 540 1425 1525 1390 1410 1410 74.50 1760 1960 1500 890 1700 1340 900 1000 1550 1665 3500 3750 1500 1180

570 600 650 g 525 ... 525 525 540 550 1435 1535 1400 1520 1520 79.50 1760 1980 1520 910 1715 1500 900 1010 1565 1680 3570 3820 1550 1200

580 c 610 c 750 h 540 555 540 540 540 565 1445 1545 1410 1520 1520 80.25 1770 e 1990 f 1520 1000 1715 1500 900 1020 1565 1680 3590 3840 1560 1220

645 h 675 h 1000 600 620 600 600 620 650 1600 1700 1550 d 1700 d 1700 d 81.18 1800 e 2030 f 1550 1055 1800 1510 910 1050 1650 1735 3620 3870 1580 1240

850 k 880 k 1080 840 860 840 915 840 680 1730 1870 2000 2520 2520 81.18 2500 i 3000 j 2100 1250 1830 2215 1350 1390 1650 1735 3660 3910 2750 2405

950 k 980 k 1100 840 860 840 915 840 750 1760 1870 2300 2760 2520 129.84 2500 i 3000 j 2100 1375 1830 2215 1350 1390 1680 1735 4450 4700 2850 2405

1000 1030 1120 880 900 880 965 880 780 2100 2250 3000 l 3170 l 2900 l 139.12 2500 i 3000 j 2300 1575 1850 2350 1400 1440 1800 1780 4450 4700 2900 2450

1080 1110 1285 980 1000 980 1050 980 980 2800 2800 3200 l 3500 l 3300 l 145.00 m 2800 i 3300 j 2700 1675 2500 2800 1650 1690 2500 2425 4525 4775 3400 2900

1250 1280 1350 1500 1520 1175 1500 1175 980 3000 2900 3850 4400 4300 170.00 3600 3900 3700 2200 3000 3700 2200 2240 2800 2970 5100 5350 4200 3500

1310 1345 1400 1500 1520 1250 1500 1310 1100 3100 2950 4300 4500 4300 210.00 3700 4000 4000 2300 3050 3700 2500 2560 3000 3020 5250 5500 4500 3500

1360 1400 1450 1530 1550 1250 1550 1310 1150 3175 3075 4350 4600 4350 220.00 3750 4050 4000 2400 3100 3750 2500 2560 3050 3020 5550 5830 4600 3600

A71

: Statutory Minimum Price (SMP) upto 2008-09. Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) from 2009-10 onwards. : Including Special onetime drought relief (SDR) price announced for 2002-03. c : An additional incentive bonus of Rs. 40 per quintal was payable on procurement between January 10, 2006 to March 31, 2007. d : A bonus of Rs. 40 per quintal was payable over and above the MSP. e f : Medium staple. : Long staple. g : An incentive bonus of Rs. 50 per quintal is payable on wheat over the Minimum Support Price (MSP). h : An additional incentive bonus of Rs. 100 per quintal was payable over the Minimum Support Price (MSP). i j : Staple length (mm) of 24.5-25.5 and micronaire value of 4.3-5.1 : Staple length (mm) of 29.5-30.5 and micronaire value of 3.5-4.3 k : An additional incentive bonus of Rs. 50 per quintal was payble over the MSP. l : Additional incentive at the rate of Rs. 500 per quintal of tur, urad and moong sold to procurement agencies . m : At 9.5 percent recovery, subject to a premium of Rs.1.53 for every 0.1 percent increase in the recovery above 9.5 percent. a

2013-14

Economic Survey 2014-15

Paddy (Common) Paddy (Grade ‘A’) Wheat Jowar (Hybrid) Jowar (Maldandi) Bajra Ragi Maize Barley Gram Masur Arhar Moong Urad Sugarcane a Cotton F-414/H-777 Cotton H-4 750 Groundnut Jute(TD-5) Rapeseed/ mustard Sunflower Soyabean (Black) Soyabean (Yellow) Safflower Toria Copra (milling) Copra balls Sesamum Niger seed

1990-91

A72

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 6.1 (A) : Foreign Exchange Reserves

End of Fiscal

1 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 1959-60 1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97

(` crore) Transactions with IMF Foreign Total Drawals Repur- Outstanding Currency c h a s e s g repurchase Assets obligations ` crore In millions ` crore ` crore ` crore of SDRs (3+4+6+7) Reserves RTP SDRs

Gold

Tonnes

` crore

220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 220 250 216 216 216 216 217 216 216 216 216 216 216 223 229 260 266 267 267 267 267 291 325 325 325 325 333 333 351 354 367 396 398 398

118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 118 134 116 183 183 183 183 183 183 183 183 183 183 188 193 220 225 226 226 226 226 246 274 274 274 274 281 6828 9039 10549 12794 13752 15658 14557

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 123 149 248 247 245 235 203 187 162 365 529 491 425 270 216 147 115 139 70 80 82 76 66 13 77 5 56 1

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 92 112 194 226 230 229 211 192 170 381 545 497 444 291 248 181 161 232 125 161 184 200 233 55 339 23 280 7

911 747 763 792 774 785 563 303 261 245 186 180 177 188 116 182 296 356 391 546 438 480 479 581 611 1492 2863 4500 5220 5164 4822 3355 4265 5498 6817 7384 7645 7287 6605 5787 4388 14578 20140 47287 66006 58446 80368

1029 865 881 910 892 903 681 421 379 363 304 298 295 306 250 298 479 539 574 821 733 857 888 994 1023 1886 3243 4863 5821 5934 5545 4025 4782 5972 7244 7819 8151 7686 7040 6252 11416 23850 30744 60420 79781 74384 94932

... ... ... ... ... ... 61 35 ... ... ... 119 12 ... 48 65 89 68 ... ... ... ... ... 62 485 207 ... ... ... ... 274 a 637 b 1893 b 1414 b 219 b ... ... ... ... 3334 c 3205 d 4231 1007 ... ... ... ...

... ... ... 17 17 7 6 ... ... 24 11 61 ... 24 48 36 43 43 59 125 154 ... ... ... ... ... 303 249 207 55 e 5f ... ... 72 h 156 i 253 j 672 k 1209 l 1547 m 1460 n 1156 o 1127 p 868 q 420 r 3585 s 5749 t 3461 u

48 48 48 30 13 6 61 95 95 71 61 119 131 107 107 137 313 338 279 154 ... ... ... 59 557 804 492 210 ... ... 268 901 2867 4444 4888 5285 5548 4732 3696 2572 5132 8934 14986 15812 13545 8152 4714 Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;72

Economic Survey 2014-15

A73

Table 6.1 (A) : Foreign Exchange Reserves (Contd.)

End of Fiscal

Gold

Tonnes

` crore

1 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 x April 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014 August 2014 September 2014 October 2014 November 2014 December 2014

396 357 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 358 558 558 558 558 558

13394 12559 12973 12711 14868 16785 18216 19686 25674 29573 40124 48793 81188 102572 138250 139737 129616

... ... ... ... ... 3190 5688 6289 3374 2044 1744 5000 6231 13158 14511 12513 11019

1 6 3 2 8 3 2 3 2 1 11 1 3297 2882 2885 2887 2888

4 34 16 11 50 19 10 20 12 8 74 6 22596 20401 22866 23538 26793

102507 125412 152924 184482 249118 341476 466215 593121 647327 836597 1196023 1230066 1149650 1224883 1330511 1412631 1660914

115905 138005 165913 197204 264036 361470 490129 619116 676387 868222 1237965 1283865 1259665 1361013 1506139 1588419 1828342

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 3024.6 1360.3 301.5 371.1 ... 161.3 â&#x20AC;Ś ... ...

2286 1652 w ... ... ... ... 2598.2 414.9 220.5 ... ... 2940.1 10090.4 1594.0 1392.1 ... ...

2624 1220 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

558 558 558 558 558 558 558 558 558

126502 122733 124002 127564 126592 123310 121210 117658 122723

11092 9893 10323 10252 10204 9489 9430 9428 7212

2888 2888 2888 2888 2889 2889 2889 2889 2889

27003 26266 26832 26646 26524 26387 26223 26214 26506

1711816 1684176 1738621 1762254 1762186 1774501 1783078 1802329 1874276

1876413 1843068 1899778 1926716 1925506 1933687 1939941 1955629 2030717

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Source : Reserve Bank of India. SDRs: Special Drawing Rights, RTP: Rerserve Tranche Position in IMF, ... : Nil or Negligible a : Excludes ` 544.53 crore drawn under Trust Fund. b : Drawals under Extended Fund Facility (EFF). c : Drawals of ` 1883.6 crore under Compensatory and Contingency Financing Facility and ` 1450.2 crore under First Credit Tranche of Stand-by Arrangement. d : Drawals of ` 2217.2 crore under Compensatory and Contingency Financing Facility and ` 987.5 crore under First Credit Tranche of Stand-by Arrangement. e : Includes voluntary repurchases of Rupees (`199 crore) and sales of Rupees (` 35.2 crore) by the IMF under its General Resources Account. f : Sales of Rupees by the IMF. g : Additionally, SDR 59.9 million in May 1979, SDR 7.3 million in July 1980 and SDR 34.5 million in March 1982 were used for voluntary repurchases of Rupees. h : SDR 66.50 million were used for repurchases of drawals under Compensatory Financing Facility. i : SDR 33.25 million and ` 117.85 crore in foreign currencies were used for repurchases of drawals under CFF. j : SDR 66.5 million and SDRs ` 131.25 million were used for repurchases of drawals under CFF and EFF, respectively. k : SDR 431.25 million were used for repurchases of drawals under EFF. l : SDR 704.17 million were used for repurchases of drawals under EFF. m : SDR 804.18 million were used for repurchases of drawals under EFF. n : SDR 681.25 million were used for repurchases of drawals under EFF. o : SDR 468.75 million were used for repurchases of drawals under EFF. p : SDR 337.49 million were used for repurchases of drawals under EFF. Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;73

A74

Economic Survey 2014-15

: SDR 237.49 million were used for repurchases of drawals under EFF. : SDR 95.84 million were used for repurchases of drawals under EFF. s : SDR 812.77 million were used for repurchases of drawals under EFF. t : SDR 1130.48 million were used for repurchases of drawals under EFF. u : SDR 678.38 million were used for repurchases of drawals under EFF. v : SDR 449.29 million were used for repurchases of drawals under EFF. w : SDR 212.46 million were used for repurchases of drawals under EFF. x : Figures pertain to end of Month. Notes : 1. Figures after 1965-66 are not comparable with those of the earlier years owing to devaluation of the Rupee in June 1966. 2. Also figures for July 1991 onwards are not comparable with those of earlier periods due to the downward adjustment of the Rupee effected on July 1,1991 and July 3, 1991. 3. Drawals, Repurchase and outstanding repurchase obligations are calculated at the ruling rates of exchange. 4. Gold is valued at ` 53.58 per 10 grams up to May 1966 and at ` 84.39 per 10 grams up to September 1990 and closer to international market price w.e.f. October 17,1990. 5. Foreign exchange assets (FCA) includes (a) foreign assets of the Reserve Bank of India and (b) Government balances held abroad up to 1955-56. 6. While reserves pertain to end period, repurchases are for the relevant periods. 7. FCA excludes US $ 250.00 millon invested in foreign currency denominated bonds issued by IIFC (UK) since March 20, 2009, excludes US $ 380.00 million since September 16, 2011, excludes US$ 550 million since February 27, 2012, excludes US $ 673 million since 30th March 2012 and US $ 790 million since July 5, 2012 (as also its equavalent value in Indian rupee in respective months). 8. Includes ` 31,463 crore ( US$ 6,699 million) reflecting the purchase of 200 metric tonnes of gold from IMF on November 3, 2009. 9. Includes SDRs 3,082.5 million allocated under general allocation and SDRs 214.6 million allocated under special allocation by the IMF done on August 28, 2009 and September 9, 2009, respectively. 10. Totals may not tally due to rounding off. r

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;74

Economic Survey 2014-15

A75

Table 6.1 (B) : Foreign Exchange Reserves

End of Fiscal

Reserves SDRs Foreign Total Currency (2+3+4+5) Assets

(US$ million) Transactions with IMF Drawals RepurOutstanding chases repurchase obligations

Gold

RTP

247 247 247 247 247 247 247 247 247 247 247 247 247 247 281 243 243 243 243 243 243 264 293 293 304 281 290 319 377 375 370 335 324 320 325 417 471 508 473 487 3496 3499 3380 4078 4370 4561 4054 3391 2960 2974

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 123 148 269 297 296 293 234 217 200 470 662 603 473 291 230 145 131 179 97 103 107 102 90 18 108 7 82 2 1 8 4

1914 1568 1603 1664 1626 1648 1184 637 548 515 390 377 372 395 243 383 395 475 526 728 584 661 629 736 782 1657 3240 5305 6421 6324 5850 3582 4281 5099 5482 5972 5924 5618 4226 3368 2236 5631 6434 15068 20809 17044 22367 25975 29522 35058

2161 1815 1850 1911 1873 1895 1431 884 795 762 637 624 619 642 524 626 638 718 769 1094 975 1194 1219 1325 1379 2172 3747 5824 7268 7361 6823 4390 4896 5649 5952 6520 6574 6223 4802 3962 5834 9220 9832 19254 25186 21687 26423 29367 32490 38036

... ... ... ... ... ... 126 72 ... ... ... 249 25 ... 99 137 126 89 ... ... ... ... ... 79 608 239 ... ... ... ... 342 692 1968 1376 201 ... ... ... ... ... 1858 1240 1623 325 ... ... ... ... ... ...

... ... ... 36 36 15 12 ... ... 50 23 127 ... 50 100 75 57 58 78 167 205 ... ... ... ... ... 336 333 256 145 16 40 ... 70 134 209 521 930 1070 873 644 460 335 134 1146 1710 977 615 102 ...

100 100 100 64 28 13 128 200 200 150 128 250 275 225 225 288 418 450 372 205 ... ... ... 75 715 896 559 249 ... ... 327 964 2876 4150 3932 4290 4291 3653 2365 1493 2623 3451 4799 5040 4300 2374 1313 664 287 ... Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;75

A76

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 6.1 (B) : Foreign Exchange Reserves (Contd.)

End of Fiscal

1 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 a April 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014 August 2014 September 2014 October 2014 November 2014 December 2014

Reserves SDRs Foreign Total Currency (2+3+4+5) Assets

(US$ million) Transactions with IMF Drawals RepurOutstanding chases repurchase obligations

Gold

RTP

2725 3047 3534 4198 4500 5755 6784 10039 9577 17986 22972 27023 25692 21567

... ... 672 1311 1438 756 469 436 981 1380 2947 2836 2301 1834

2 10 4 2 5 3 2 18 1 5006 4569 4469 4328 4464

39554 51049 71890 107448 135571 145108 191924 299230 241426 254685 274330 260069 259726 276359

42281 54106 76100 112959 141514 151622 199179 309723 251986 279057 304818 294397 292047 304224

... ... ... ... ... 670.0 302.7 74.2 86.3 ... 36.2 â&#x20AC;Ś ... ...

... ... ... 561.3 93.5 50.7 ... ... 611.9 461.3 353.2 275.1 ... ...

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

20966 20790 20635 21174 20933 20013 19738 18985 19378

1838 1676 1718 1702 1687 1540 1536 1521 1139

4475 4449 4465 4423 4386 4283 4270 4230 4185

283707 285292 289320 292510 291393 288005 290366 290822 295947

310986 312207 316138 319808 318400 313841 315910 315558 320649

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Source : Reserve Bank of India. SDRs : Special Drawing Rights. RTP : Reserve Tranche Position in IMF. a : Figures pertain to end of Month. ... : Nil or Negligible. Notes : 1. For compiling figures in US dollars, gold is valued at SDR 35 per troy ounce as in the International Financial Statistics of the IMF upto October 16, 1990. Thereafter gold has been valued at international market price. 2. Conversion of foreign currency assets and SDR in US dollars is done at exchange rates supplied by the IMF. 3. Transactions with IMF are converted at respective SDR/$ rate. 4. While reserves pertain to end period, repurchases are for the relevant periods. 5. Foreign Currency Assets (FCA) exclude US$ 250.00 millon invested in foreign currency denominated bonds issued by IIFC (UK) since March 20, 2009, exclude US$ 380.00 million since September 16, 2011, exclude US$ 550 million since February 27, 2012, exclude US$ 673 million since March 30, 2012 and US$ 790 million since July 5, 2012 (as also its equivalent value in Indian Rupee respective months). 6. Includes ` 31,463 crore (US$ 6,699 million) reflecting the purchase of 200 metric tonnes of gold from IMF on November 3, 2009. 7. Includes SDRs 3,082.5 million allocated under general allocation and SDRs 214.6 million allocated under special allocation by the IMF done on August 28, 2009 and September 9, 2009, respectively. 8. Totals may not tally due to rounding off.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;76

Economic Survey 2014-15

A77

Table 6.2 : Balance of Payments as per IMF Balance of Payments Manual 5 Items 1 1 Imports (c.i.f.) 2 Exports (f.o.b.) 3 Trade Balance (2-1) 4 Invisibles a) Receipts b) Payments of which: Interest & services Payments on Loans and Credits c) Net 5 Current Account Balance 6 Capital Account I Foreign Investment (Net) i) Foreign Direct Investment a) Inward FDI b) Outward FDI c) Net ii) Portfolio Investment (Net) II Loans (Net) i) External Assistance a) Inflow b) Outflow c) Net ii) Commercial Borrowings a a) Inflow b) Out flow c) Net III Banking a) Receipts b) Payments c) Net IV Rupee Debt Services (Net) V Other Capital a) Receipts b) Payments c) Net VI Errors & Omissions (Net) 7 Total Capital (I to VI of 6 ) 8 Overall Balance (5+7) 9 Monetary Movements a) IMF Transactions i) Purchases ii) Repurchases iii) Net b) Increase (-)/decrease (+) in Reserves 10 Total Reserve movements (9a(iii)+9b) [(-) Increase/ (+) decrease]

2000-01 ` crore US$ million 2 264589 207852 -56737

2008-09 ` crore US$ million

3 8 57912 1405400 45452 858000 -12460 -547400

2009-10 ` crore US$ million

9 4 308520 1423248 189001 863283 -119519 -559966

2010-11 ` crore US$ million

5 6 300644 1746135 182442 1165665 -118202 -580470

7 383481 256159 -127322

147778 102639 21948

32267 22473 4801

770400 350600 29992

167819 76214 6521

774635 394368 27169

163430 83408 5719

867228 506411 27660

190488 111218 6073

45139 -11598

9794 -2666

419800 -127600

91605 -27914

380267 -179699

80022 -38180

360816 -219653

79269 -48053

26744

5862

35100

8342

239951

50362

193482

42127

18404 -3480 14924 11820 24459

4031 -759 3272 2590 5264

190600 -90500 100100 -65000 34800

41737 -19365 22372 -14030 8314

157819 -71835 85984 153967 57953

33109 -15143 17966 32396 12447

132358 -78257 54100 139381 132714

29029 -17195 11834 30293 29135

13521 11519 2002

2941 2531 410

24400 12900 11500

5230 2792 2438

27858 14260 13597

5897 3007 2890

35872 13393 22479

7882 2941 4941

95750 73293 22457

20865 16011 4854

260974 237739 23234

56987 51111 5876

322091 277736 44354

68267 58709 9558

459540 349304 110236

100899 76705 24194

44448 53592 -9144 -2760

9744 11705 -1961 -617

295400 314600 -19200 -472

65207 68453 -3246 -100

292106 282264 9841 -451

61499 59416 2083 -97

419273 397253 22020 -310

92323 87361 4962 -68

12948 11637 1311 -1369 39241 27643

2856 2564 292 -305 8535 5868

76100 97300 -21200 1500 305015 -97100

16685 22602 -5917 440 7835 -20080

54579 117826 -63246 -113 243935 64236

11451 24613 -13162 -12 51622 13441

45175 101914 -56739 -12062 279105 59451

9995 22411 -12416 -2636 61104 13050

115 -115 -27258

26 -26 -5842

97100

20080

-64236

-13441

-59451

-13050

-27643

-5868

97100

20080

-64236

-13441

-59451

-13050

Source : Reserve Bank of India. ... : Nil or Negligible. a

: Commercial borrowings includes short term credit. Notes : Totals may not tally due to rounding off.

Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;77

A78

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 6.2 : Balance of Payments as per IMF Balance of Payments Manual 5 (Contd...) Items 1

2011-12 ` crore US$ million 8

1 Imports (c.i.f.) 2394647 2 Exports (f.o.b.) 1482517 3 Trade Balance (2-1) -912129 4 Invisibles a) Receipts 1053480 b) Payments 517323 of which: Interest & services 41046 Payments on Loans and Credits c) Net 536157 5 Current Account Balance -375973 6 Capital Account I Foreign Investment (Net) 188738 i) Foreign Direct Investment a) Inward FDI 154961 b) Outward FDI -51794 c) Net 103167 ii) Portfolio Investment (Net) 85571 II Loans (Net) 89748 i) External Assistance a) Inflow 27355 b) Out flow 16051 c) Net 11305 ` ii) Commercial Borrowingsa a) Inflow 649101 b) Outflow 570658 c) Net 78443 III Banking a) Receipts 427827 b) Payments 356829 c) Net 70998 IV Rupee Debt Services (Net) -381 V Other Capital a) Receipts 64143 b) Payments 94216 c) Net -30073 VI Errors & Omissions (Net) -11560 7 Total Capital (I to VI of 6 ) 307470 8 Overall Balance (5+7) -68503 9 Monetary Movements a) IMF Transactions i) Purchases ii) Repurchases iii) Net b) Increase (-)/decrease (+) 68503 in Reserves 1 0 Total Reserve movements 68503 (9a(iii)+9b)[(-) Increase/ (+) decrease]

2012-13 PR ` crore US$ million

2013-14 P 2014-15 (Apr.-Sept.)P ` crore US$ ` crore US$ million million 12

466216 1446278 318607 1005358 -147609 -440920

240188 166974 -73214

499533 2732146 309774 1667690 -189759 -1064456

502237 2815918 306581 1931074 -195656 -884845

219229 1218893 107625 634047 8527 59546

224044 1411773 116551 714679 10944 67745

233231 118019 11176

700265 367448 37128

116310 61038 6167

111604 -78155

584846 -479610

107493 -88163

697095 -187750

115212 -32397

332817 -108103

55272 -17942

39231

254653

46711

159650

26386

230969

38385

32952 -10892 22061 17170 19307

146954 -38768 108186 146467 169073

26953 -7134 19819 26891 31124

186830 -56860 129970 29680 45901

30763 -9199 21564 4822 7765

100924 -3508 97417 133552 24721

16763 -580 16183 22202 4104

5646 3350 2296

25747 20421 5326

4735 3752 982

28239 22043 6197

4659 3627 1032

15606 11929 3677

2591 1985 606

135344 118334 17010

817605 653858 163747

150351 120209 30142

785202 745499 39703

130177 123444 6733

386572 365528 21044

64224 60726 3498

89904 73678 16226 -79

455407 365140 90268 -313

83727 67157 16570 -58

654482 502818 151664 -304

108049 82601 25449 -52

261362 264639 -3277 -347

43444 43987 -542 -58

13296 20224 -6929 -2432 65323 -12831

97073 125020 -27946 14578 500313 20702

17861 22908 -5047 2689 91989 3826

133801 200903 -67102 -6004 283804 96054

22171 32932 -10761 -882 47905 15508

75213 95311 -20098 -15219 216749 108646

12519 15868 -3349 -2522 36018 18076

12831

-20702

-3826

-96054

-15508

-108646

-18076

12831

-20702

-3826

-96054

-15508

-108646

-18076

Source : Reserve Bank of India. a : Commercial borrowings includes short term credit. P : Preliminary, PR : Partially Revised. ... : Nil or Negligible. Note: 1. Grants received are covered under item 4(a). 2. Estimated interest accrued and credited to NRI deposits during the year has been treated as notional outflow under invisible payments and added as reinvestment in NRI deposits under banking capital. 3. In accordance with the provision of IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual (5th Edition), gold purchased from the Government of India by the RBI has been excluded from the BoP statistics. Data for the earlier years has, therefore, been amended by making suitable adjustments in “Other Capital-Receipts and Foreign Exchange Reserves”. Similarly, item “SDR Allocation” has been deleted from the table. 4. With effect from 1996-97, private transfer receipts include redemption in rupees of both principal and interest under NonResident External (Rupee) Account [NRE(R)A] and Non-Resident Non-Repatriable Rupee Deposit [NR(NR)RD] schemes. This marks an improvement in data reporting. 5. The Presentation of balance of payments statistics in the above table differs from the adjusted balance of payments statistics published in the previous issues of the Economic Survey. 6. Totals may not tally due to rounding off.

A—78

Table 6.3 (A) : Balance of Payments as per IMF Balance of Payments Manual 6

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;79

1 1.A 1.A.a 1.A.b 1.A.b.1 1.A.b.2 1.A.b.3 1.A.b.4 1.A.b.5 1.A.b.6 1.A.b.7 1.A.b.8 1.A.b.9 1.A.b.10 1.A.b.11 1.A.b.12 1.A.b.13 1.B 1.C 2 2.1

3.4 3.4.1 3.4.2 3.4.3 3.4.4 3.4.5 3.4.6 3.4.7 3.5 4 5

Items Credit Current Account (1.A+1.B+1.C) 2526500 Goods and Services (1.A.a+1.A.b) 2160500 Goods 1482800 Services (1.A.b.1 to 1.A.b.13) 677700 Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others Maintenance and repair services n.i.e. Transport 87600 Travel 89200 Construction 3900 Insurance and pension services 12700 Financial services 28700 Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e. 1400 Telecommunications, computer, and information services 307700 Other business services 118300 Personal, cultural, and recreational services 1900 Government goods and services n.i.e. 2300 Others n.i.e. 24200 Primary Income 48400 Secondary Income 317600 Capital Account (2.1+2.2) 4400 Gross acquisitions (DR.)/disposals (CR.) of non-produced 1300 non-financial assets Capital transfers 3100 2900 Financial Account (3.1 to 3.5) 2382500 1994500 Direct Investment (3.1A+3.1B) 232000 128900 Direct Investment in India 220000 65000 Direct Investment by India 12000 63800 Portfolio Investment 886400 803600 Portfolio Invesment in India 882300 798300 Portfolio Invesment by India 4100 5300 Financial derivatives (other than reserves) and employee stock options Other investment 1169900 1036400 Other equity (ADRs/GDRs) 2800 Currency and deposits 312500 253500 Loans (External Assistance, ECBs and Banking Capital) 298900 227700 Insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes Trade credit and advances 492900 462400 Other accounts receivable/payableâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;other 62900 92900 Special drawing rights Reserve assets 94100 25600 Total assets/liabilities 2382500 1994500 Net errors and omissions 11600

3600 800 800 100 189900 1670700 1547400 123300 130000 144300 46900 97400 186800 125400 24500 100900 -56900 18900 22400 -3500 29600 797100 663500 133600 31000 795300 661000 134400 -1400 1700 2500 -800 12700 47200 47500 -300

133500 1379600 1134500 245100 1537500 1423800 2800 1000 1000 100 59000 358700 275500 83300 536200 295200 71200 272600 214200 58400 329300 340000 200 800 -600 3600 4000 30600 667400 549800 117700 602400 635200 -30000 79800 95000 -15200 65900 149500 68500 900 21600 -20700 66400 162400 388000 2567200 2102300 464900 3152900 2963000 -11600 14600 14600 6000

113800 682100 680800 1300 100 0 0 0 241000 193500 153100 40400 -10700 189900 209300 -19400 -400 600 600 0 -32700 280100 279700 400 -83500 18000 38100 -20100 0 0 0 -96100 0 108600 -108600 189900 1670700 1547400 123300 -6000 0 15200 -15200

A79

Source: Reserve Bank of India P : Preliminary, PR: Partially Revised Note : Totals may not tally due to rounding off.

200 8100 9300 -1200 9400 5800 388000 2567200 2102300 464900 3152900 2963000 103200 216700 108600 108200 263900 133900 155000 186900 39900 147000 218600 31800 -51800 29900 68600 -38800 45300 102200 82800 952100 806600 145400 1226700 1197100 84000 944000 793800 150200 1221700 1190700 -1200 8100 12900 -4800 5000 6400 17700 30300 -12600 58400 45800

Economic Survey 2014-15

2.2 3 3.1 3.1.A 3.1.B 3.2 3.2.A 3.2.B 3.3

(` crore) 2011-12 2012-13 PR 2013-14 P 2014-15 (Apr.-Sept.) P Debit Net C r e d i t Debit Net C r e d i t Debit Net C r e d i t Debit Net 2902700 -376200 2884400 3362300 -477900 3340000 3527500 -187500 1705300 1813400 -108100 2764700 -604200 2460200 3171400 -711200 2848300 3290800 -442600 1462500 1686200 -223700 2394600 -911900 1667700 2732100-1064500 1931100 2815900 -884800 1005400 1446300 -440900 370100 307600 792500 439300 353200 917200 474900 442300 457100 239900 217200 400 200 200 900 200 800 300 100 200 600 2000 -1400 1300 1700 -400 400 600 -200 79100 8500 94300 80600 13700 105300 89500 15800 54100 48400 5700 65900 23300 97900 64300 33500 108800 71400 37400 55600 47900 7600 4800 -1000 5500 6600 -1200 8100 7500 600 5100 3400 1700 7200 5500 12100 7700 4500 12800 6800 6100 6900 3400 3500 38300 -9700 26900 25200 1700 40200 34600 5600 17700 13600 4100 15500 -14200 1600 22600 -21000 3600 24000 -20500 1600 13900 -12300 15600 292100 368800 19100 349700 436200 23800 412300 218300 12200 206100 122600 -4300 154800 165000 -10300 172200 164600 7700 85100 78800 6400 1300 600 5000 3400 1600 8000 5100 2900 3800 4400 -700 3700 -1500 3100 4400 -1300 2900 5900 -2900 1600 3000 -1400 15900 8300 21500 38000 -16500 16900 40000 -23100 6600 10000 -3500 125200 -76800 55900 172700 -116800 68900 208800 -139900 32000 113600 -81600 12700 304900 368300 18200 350100 422900 27900 395000 210800 13600 197200 4600 -300 8500 10100 -1600 10000 6400 3600 1300 1300 0 1700 -500 400 800 -400 600 600 500 500 0

Credit 527,050 450,777 309,843 140,935 18,257 18,462 804 2,632 5,967 281 63,972 24,557 393 478 5,133 10,144 66,129 907 275

Credit 530,230 452,259 306,581 145,677 69 113 17,334 17,999 1,004 2,227 4,949 302 67,785 28,447 911 574 3,962 10,276 67,696 1,561 76

2012-13 PR Debit Net 618,074 -87,843 583,000 -130,741 502,237 -195,656 80,763 64,915 41 28 372 -258 14,806 2,528 11,823 6,176 1,220 -216 1,409 818 4,633 316 4,159 -3,857 3,511 64,274 30,349 -1,902 616 295 813 -239 7,011 -3,049 31,731 -21,455 3,343 64,353 1,855 -294 147 -71

Credit 551382 470083 318607 151475 154 214 17380 17922 1339 2121 6650 585 72010 28482 1323 488 2809 11352 69948 1718 99

2013-14 P Debit Net 583739 -32358 544727 -74644 466216 -147609 78510 72965 28 125 282 -69 14792 2588 11810 6112 1236 103 1116 1005 5814 835 3980 -3395 3928 68082 27189 1293 831 493 979 -490 6525 -3716 34380 -23028 4633 65315 1060 659 93 6

(US$ million) 2014-15 (Apr.-Sept.) P Credit Debit Net 283234 301174 -17940 242899 280044 -37145 166974 240188 -73214 75925 39856 36069 57 17 41 71 105 -34 8992 8041 952 9225 7961 1263 841 564 277 1138 565 574 2944 2266 678 274 2314 -2040 36257 2025 34231 14144 13086 1058 624 738 -115 270 500 -230 1089 1674 -586 5319 18873 -13554 35016 2258 32759 223 220 3 85 90 -5

632 607 25 1,485 1,708 497,083 416,410 80,673 471,971 386,523 49,007 26,947 22,061 39,786 19,967 46,552 13,599 32,952 34,298 7,345 2,456 13,348 -10,892 5,488 12,622 185,013 168,440 16,573 175,053 148,349 184,150 167,338 16,812 173,575 145,992 863 1,102 -239 1,479 2,357 3,257 5,571

-223 85,449 19,819 26,953 -7,134 26,704 27,582 -878 -2,315

1619 521478 43582 36047 7535 203164 202312 851 9607

967 488897 22018 5284 16734 198362 197304 1058 7601

652 32581 21564 30763 -9199 4802 5009 -207 2006

138 277621 23962 20829 3132 132436 132151 285 7870

130 257162 7779 4066 3713 110234 109814 420 7896

244,512 215,304 597 0 64,714 52,619 63,427 46,656 102,754 96,087 13,021 19,943 18,550 5,719 497,083 416,410 2,432

45,173 187 15,312 10,726 -107 21,657 -2,708 -3,826 85,449 2,688

254424 20 88244 54524 575 100117 10944 10701 521478 -

234707 0 48858 55653 648 105161 24387 26209 488897 882

19717 20 39386 -1129 -74 -5044 -13443 -15508 32581 -882

113353 0 32132 31590 99 46538 2995 0 0 277621 -

113177 176 0 0 25429 6702 34799 -3210 99 0 46469 69 6380 -3385 0 0 18076 -18076 257162 20459 2522 -2522

29,208 253,686 208,513 597 187 12,095 65,950 50,638 16,770 50,128 39,403 31 138 6,668 122,734 101,077 -6,922 14,686 17,395 12,831 158 3,984 80,673 471,971 386,523 -2,432 2,688 -

9 20459 16183 16763 -580 22202 22337 -135 -26

Economic Survey 2014-15

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;80

Items Current Account (1.A+1.B+1.C) Goods and Services (1.A.a+1.A.b) Goods Services (1.A.b.1 to 1.A.b.13) Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others Maintenance and repair services n.i.e. Transport Travel Construction Insurance and pension services Financial services Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e. Telecommunications, computer, and information services Other business services Personal, cultural, and recreational services Government goods and services n.i.e. Others n.i.e. Primary Income Secondary Income Capital Account (2.1+2.2) Gross acquisitions (DR.)/disposals (CR.) of non-produced non-financial assets 2.2 Capital transfers 3 Financial Account (3.1 to 3.5) 3.1 Direct Investment (3.1A+3.1B) 3.1.A Direct Investment in India 3.1.B Direct Investment by India 3.2 Portfolio Investment 3.2A Portfolio Invesment in India 3.2.B Portfolio Invesment by India 3.3 Financial derivatives (other than reserves) and employee stock options 3.4 Other investment 3.4.1 Other equity (ADRs/GDRs) 3.4.2 Currency and deposits 3.4.3 Loans (External Assistance, ECBs and Banking Capital) 3.4.4 Insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes 3.4.5 Trade credit and advances 3.4.6 Other accounts receivable/payableâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;other 3.4.7 Special drawing rights 3.5 Reserve assets 4 Total assets/liabilities 5 Net errors and omissions Source : Reserve Bank of India. P : Preliminary, PR: Partially Revised. Note : Totals may not tally due to rounding off.

1 1.A 1.A.a 1.A.b 1.A.b.1 1.A.b.2 1.A.b.3 1.A.b.4 1.A.b.5 1.A.b.6 1.A.b.7 1.A.b.8 1.A.b.9 1.A.b.10 1.A.b.11 1.A.b.12 1.A.b.13 1.B 1.C 2 2.1

2011-12 Debit Net 605,229 -78,179 576,439 -125,661 499,533 -189,690 76,906 64,029 16,454 1,802 13,762 4,699 1,006 -202 1,497 1,134 7,984 -2,018 3,207 -2,927 3,258 60,714 25,467 -910 275 118 780 -302 3,214 1,919 26,130 -15,987 2,660 63,469 968 -61 361 -86

A80

Table 6.3 (B) : Balance of Payments as per IMF Balance of Payments Manual 6

Table 6.4 : Exchange Rate of Rupee vis-a-vis Selected Currencies of the World Year /Month 1 1992-93 April May June July August September October November December January February

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;81

25.890 25.890 25.890 25.890 25.890 25.890 25.890 25.890 26.154 26.199 26.199

45.461 46.838 47.788 49.721 50.384 47.567 42.862 39.535 40.578 40.141 37.704

31.526 31.366 45.684 47.692 48.395 45.952 44.932 44.273 45.285 40.241 45.917 47.417 45.577 47.923 54.410 60.502

45.952 47.206 67.552 68.319 74.819 77.739 82.864 79.047 85.727 80.802 78.449 75.886 70.885 76.391 85.971 96.306

60.357 59.305

101.079 99.940

Euro a

Japanese Ye n 5

Canadian dollar 6

0.194 0.198 0.204 0.206 0.205 0.211 0.214 0.209 0.211 0.210 0.217

21.800 21.586 21.651 21.764 21.734 21.161 20.805 20.413 20.574 20.500 20.788

... ... 41.483 42.181 48.090 53.990 56.555 53.912 58.111 56.991 65.135 67.084 60.218 65.894 70.069 81.175

0.270 0.291 0.414 0.382 0.397 0.407 0.418 0.391 0.388 0.353 0.462 0.511 0.533 0.607 0.658 0.604

83.349 81.489

0.589 0.583

Turkish Indonesian B r a z i l l i a n lira rupiah real 7 8 9

Mexican pesos 10

Korean won 11

(Rupees per unit of foreign currency) Pakistan Thailand SDR rupee baht 12 13 14

0.012 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002

0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.008 8.435 b 8.460

0.033 0.033 0.033 0.033 0.033 0.034 0.033 0.033 0.033 0.033 0.033

1.049 1.056 1.085 1.119 1.035 1.035 1.054 1.021 1.028 1.025 1.010

1.021 1.014 1.020 1.025 1.027 1.028 1.026 1.019 1.026 1.028 1.029

35.485 35.931 36.551 37.385 37.709 37.695 37.162 35.910 36.329 36.082 35.939

25.279 23.956 30.383 30.473 31.253 33.991 35.205 37.137 39.765 39.042 40.875 43.488 44.840 48.307 54.347 57.437

(Official Rate) 0.004 0.013 0.004 0.013 0.004 0.013 0.004 0.013 0.004 0.013 0.004 0.013 0.003 0.013 0.003 0.013 0.003 0.013 0.003 0.013 0.003 0.013 (Market Rate) c 0.003 0.015 0.002 0.015 0.005 0.007 d 0.005 0.004 d 0.005 0.003 d 0.005 0.003 d 8.269 e 0.005 32.843 0.045 31.156 0.005 32.155 0.004 32.801 0.004 31.363 0.005 30.242 0.005 27.682 0.005 30.275 0.006 30.100 0.006

0.001 0.122 24.153 19.549 15.489 15.713 15.707 19.170 21.044 21.762 23.606 25.455 26.431 28.222 27.078 26.907

10.151 10.009 4.788 5.183 4.806 4.248 3.964 4.122 4.113 3.703 3.867 3.616 3.663 3.788 4.171 4.679

0.040 0.039 0.039 0.037 0.040 0.039 0.041 0.044 0.048 0.043 0.038 0.039 0.040 0.043 0.049 0.056

1.198 1.083 0.820 0.772 0.819 0.798 0.763 0.741 0.748 0.658 0.613 0.572 0.534 0.547 0.572 0.587

1.242 1.240 1.100 1.069 1.132 1.132 1.121 1.096 1.236 1.194 1.349 1.409 1.466 1.564 1.768 1.920

43.521 43.886 59.546 60.215 64.126 65.690 66.928 64.490 67.254 62.651 71.277 73.733 69.723 75.313 83.026 92.260

54.913 54.430

28.471 28.372

27.047 26.676

4.619 4.586

0.058 0.058

0.621 0.601

1.867 1.820

93.452 91.812

0.005 0.005

Contd....

A81

Pound sterling 3

Economic Survey 2014-15

March 1993 1993-94 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 April May

US dollar 2

Year /Month

Canadian dollar 6

81.241 81.394 81.142 78.601 77.912 76.986 77.355

0.585 0.591 0.592 0.568 0.569 0.530 0.526

55.130 55.900 55.728 55.272 54.710 54.508 54.430

Euroa

Pound sterling 3

June July August September October November December

59.731 60.059 60.895 60.865 61.342 61.704 62.753

100.984 102.622 101.809 99.313 98.717 97.283 98.112

Turkish Indonesian B r a z i l l i a n lira rupiah real 7 8 9 28.190 28.375 28.197 27.448 27.186 27.630 27.301

0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005

26.824 26.996 26.836 25.954 24.999 24.049 23.669

Mexican pesos 10

Korean won 11

4.601 4.633 4.633 4.590 4.545 4.519 4.301

0.059 0.059 0.059 0.059 0.058 0.056 0.057

(Rupees per unit of foreign currency) Pakistan Thailand SDR rupee baht 12 13 14 0.607 0.608 0.608 0.594 0.597 0.606 0.623

1.840 1.869 1.901 1.891 1.889 1.879 1.909

92.054 92.582 92.946 91.272 91.240 90.431 91.360

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;82

Source : Reserve Bank of India a : The Euro came into existence on Jan/01/1999. b : Peso revalued in January 1993 1000 old Peso = 1 New Peso. c : Indicative rates announced by Foreign Exchange Dealers Association of India (FEDAI). d : 100 Turkish Lira, e : Turkish Lira has been replaced by New Lira w.e.f. 1.1.2005. Notes: 1. Annual/monthly averages. During March 1992 to February 1993, a dual exchange rate system was prevalent, in which the official rate was fixed by the RBI and the market rate was determined in the Inter-Bank market for the US dollar. 2. The data for 2001-02 in respect of Deutsche Mark, French Franc and Italian Lira pertain to 11 months only as Germany, France and Italy accepted the Euro as their national currency w.e.f. March 1, 2002. 3. Figures of US dollar, Pound sterling, Euro and Japanese yen from May 2012 onwards are RBIâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s reference rates.

Economic Survey 2014-15

Japanese Ye n 5

US dollar 2

A82

Table 6.4 : Exchange Rate of Rupee vis-a-vis Selected Currencies of the World (Contd.)

A83

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 6.5: Trends in Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rate of Rupee Year/month (Average)

1 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 (P) 2014-15 (P) April May June July August September October November December

Nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) 6-Currency Index 2 97.0 88.6 86.9 87.9 77.5 77.2 77.4 76.0 71.3 70.0 69.6 103.0 98.1 104.6 90.4 87.1 91.8 84.4 75.6 67.8 67.3 68.6 68.3 67.8 67.3 68.2 68.0 68.4 67.9

(Trade Based Weights) Real effective exchange rate (REER) 6-Currency Index 3 (Base Year: 1993-94=100) 105.8 101.3 101.1 104.4 96.1 97.7 102.8 102.7 97.7 99.2 101.8 (Base Year: 2004-05=100) 104.4 103.8 113.4 103.9 110.7 124.5 121.2 117.2 112.8 114.3 117.5 117.2 118.0 118.6 120.0 119.8 121.2 120.3

Nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) 36-Currency Index 4

98.9 91.5 89.3 92.0 89.1 91.0 92.1 91.6 89.1 87.1 87.3

104.3 98.2 96.8 100.8 93.0 96.0 100.1 100.9 98.2 99.6 100.1

102.2 97.6 104.8 93.3 90.9 93.5 87.4 78.3 72.3

102.4 100.8 109.2 99.6 103.9 112.7 110.3 105.6 103.3

72.8 74.1 73.7 73.4 72.7 73.6 73.7 73.9 73.9

104.6 107.1 107.1 108.3 108.2 109.1 109.1 109.8 109.8

Source : Reserve Bank of India. P : Provisional Notes : 1. REER figures for the period 1994-95 to 2004-05 are based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI). 2. REER figures for the period 2005-06 to 2014-15 are based on Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;83

Real effective exchange rate (REER) 36-Currency Index

A84

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 7.1 (A) : Exports, Imports and Trade Balance (` crore)

Year

1 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 1959-60 1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

Exports (including re-exports) 2

Imports

485 606 716 578 531 593 609 605 561 581 640 642 660 685 793 816 810 1157 1199 1358 1413 1535 1608 1971 2523 3329 4036 5142 5408 5726 6418 6711 7806 8803 9771 11744 10895 12452 15674 20232 27658 32553 44041 53688 69751 82674 106353 118817 130100 139752 159095 203571 209018 254913 293367 375340 456418 571779 655864 840755

617 608 890 702 610 700 774 841 1035 906 961 1122 1090 1131 1223 1349 1409 2078 2008 1909 1582 1634 1825 1867 2955 4519 5265 5074 6020 6811 9143 12549 13608 14293 15831 17134 19658 20096 22244 28235 35328 43198 47851 63375 73101 89971 122678 138920 154176 178332 215529 230873 245200 296360 359108 501065 660409 881515 1012312 1374436

Trade Balance

4 -132 -2 -174 -124 -79 -107 -165 -236 -474 -325 -321 -480 -430 -446 -430 -533 -599 -921 -809 -551 -169 -99 -217 104 -432 -1190 -1229 68 -612 -1085 -2725 -5838 -5802 -5490 -6060 -5390 -8763 -7644 -6570 -8003 -7670 -10645 -3810 -9687 -3350 -7297 -16325 -20103 -24076 -38580 -56433 -27302 -36182 -41446 -65741 -125725 -203991 -309736 -356448 -533680

Rate of change Import (per cent) 5 6

Export

na 24.9 18.2 -19.3 -8.1 11.7 2.7 -0.7 -7.3 3.6 10.2 0.3 2.8 3.8 15.8 2.9 -0.7 42.8 3.6 13.3 4.1 8.6 4.8 22.6 28.0 31.9 21.2 27.4 5.2 5.9 12.1 4.6 16.3 12.8 11.0 20.2 -7.2 14.3 25.9 29.1 36.7 17.7 35.3 21.9 29.9 18.5 28.6 11.7 9.5 7.4 13.8 28.0 2.7 22.0 15.1 27.9 21.6 25.3 14.7 28.2

na -1.5 46.4 -21.1 -13.1 14.8 10.6 8.7 23.1 -12.5 6.1 16.8 -2.9 3.8 8.1 10.3 4.4 47.5 -3.4 -4.9 -17.1 3.3 11.7 2.3 58.3 52.9 16.5 -3.6 18.6 13.1 34.2 37.3 8.4 5.0 10.8 8.2 14.7 2.2 10.7 26.9 25.1 22.3 10.8 32.4 15.3 23.1 36.4 13.2 11.0 15.7 20.9 7.1 6.2 20.9 21.2 39.5 31.8 33.5 14.8 35.8 Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;84

Economic Survey 2014-15

A85

Table 7.1 (A) : Exports, Imports and Trade Balance (Contd....) (` crore) Year

1 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15(Apr-Dec)(P) a

Exports (including re-exports) 2

Imports

845534 1136964 1465959 1634318 1905011 1465171

1363736 1683467 2345463 2669162 2715434 2134283

Trade Balance

4 -518202 -546503 -879504 -1034844 -810423 -669111

Rate of change Import (per cent) 5 6

Export

0.6 34.5 28.9 11.5 16.6 5.0

-0.8 23.4 39.3 13.8 1.7 5.2

Source : Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics (DGCI&S), Kolkata P : Provisional a : Growth rate on provisional over revised basis and based on Department of Commerce methodology. Note : For the years 1956-57, 1957-58, 1958-59 and 1959-60, the data are as per the Fourteenth Report of the Estimates Committee(1971-72) of the erstwhile Ministry of Foreign Trade.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;85

A86

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 7.1 (B): Exports, Imports and Trade Balance (US$ million)

Year

Exports (including re-exports) 2

Imports

1016 1269 1490 1212 1114 1233 1275 1259 1171 1219 1343 1346 1381 1437 1659 1701 1693 1628 1586 1788 1866 2031 2153 2550 3209 4174 4665 5753 6316 6978 7947 8486 8704 9107 9449 9878 8904 9745 12089 13970 16612 18143 17865 18537 22238 26330 31797 33470 35006 33218 36715 44076 43827 52719 63843 83536 103091 126414 163132 185295 178751

1292 1273 1852 1472 1279 1456 1620 1750 2160 1901 2016 2353 2281 2372 2558 2813 2944 2923 2656 2513 2089 2162 2443 2415 3759 5666 6084 5677 7031 8300 11321 15869 15174 14787 15311 14412 16067 15727 17156 19497 21219 24075 19411 21882 23306 28654 36678 39133 41484 42389 49738 49975 51413 61412 78149 111517 149166 185735 251654 303696 288373

Trade Balance

4 -276 -4 -362 -260 -165 -223 -345 -491 -989 -682 -673 -1007 -900 -935 -899 -1112 -1251 -1295 -1070 -725 -223 -131 -290 135 -550 -1492 -1419 76 -715 -1322 -3374 -7383 -6470 -5680 -5862 -4534 -7163 -5982 -5067 -5527 -4607 -5932 -1546 -3345 -1068 -2324 -4881 -5663 -6478 -9171 -13023 -5899 -7587 -8693 -14307 -27981 -46075 -59321 -88522 -118401 -109621

Rate of change Import (per cent) 5 6

Export

na 24.9 17.4 -18.7 -8.1 10.7 3.4 -1.3 -7.0 4.1 10.2 0.2 2.6 4.1 15.4 2.5 -0.5 -3.8 -2.6 12.7 4.4 8.8 6.0 18.4 25.8 30.1 11.8 23.3 9.8 10.5 13.9 6.8 2.6 4.6 3.8 4.5 -9.9 9.4 24.1 15.6 18.9 9.2 -1.5 3.8 20.0 18.4 20.8 5.3 4.6 -5.1 10.5 20.0 -0.6 20.3 21.1 30.8 23.4 22.6 29.0 13.6 -3.5

na -1.5 45.5 -20.5 -13.1 13.8 11.3 8.0 23.4 -12.0 6.0 16.7 -3.1 4.0 7.8 10.0 4.7 -0.7 -9.1 -5.4 -16.9 3.5 13.0 -1.1 55.7 50.7 7.4 -6.7 23.9 18.0 36.4 40.2 -4.4 -2.6 3.5 -5.9 11.5 -2.1 9.1 13.6 8.8 13.5 -19.4 12.7 6.5 22.9 28.0 6.7 6.0 2.2 17.3 0.5 2.9 19.4 27.3 42.7 33.8 24.5 35.5 20.7 -5.0 Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;86

Economic Survey 2014-15

A87

Table 7.1 (B) : Exports, Imports and Trade Balance (Contd...) (US$ million) Year

1 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15(Apr-Dec)(P) a

Exports (including re-exports) 2

Imports

251136 305964 300401 314405 241154

369769 489319 490737 450200 351206

Trade Balance

4 -118633 -183356 -190336 -135795 -110052

Rate of change Import (per cent) 5 6

Export

40.5 21.8 -1.8 4.7 4.0

28.2 32.3 0.3 -8.3 3.6

Source : DGCI&S, Kolkata P : Provisional a : Growth rate on provisional over revised basis and based on Department of Commerce methodology. Note : For the years 1956-57, 1957-58, 1958-59 and 1959-60, the data are as per the Fourteenth Report of the Estimates Committee (1971-72) of the erstwhile Ministry of Foreign Trade.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;87

A88

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 7.2 (A) : Principal Imports Quantity Value 1960-61 Qty.

Thousand tonnes ` crore & US $ million

1970-71

` cr $ million

Qty.

1980-81

` cr $ million

Qty.

` cr $ million

...

214

449

...

242

321

...

380

481

3747.7

181

380 3343.2

213

282

400.8

100

127

Food and live animals chiefly for food (excl. cashew raw) of which:

I.1

Cereals and cereal preparations

II.

Raw materials and intermediate manufactures

...

527

1105

...

889

1176

...

9760

12341

II.1

Cashewnuts (unprocessed)

...

169.4

II.2

Crude rubber (including synthetic and reclaimed)

36.2

7.8

26.2

II.3

Fibres of which:

...

101

212

...

127

168

...

164

208

0.2

...

15.8

68.8

122

II.3.1 Synthetic and regenerated fibres (man-made fibres) II.3.2 Raw wool

1.9

18.8

II.3.3 Raw cotton

237.1

172

139.1

131

...

II.3.4 Raw jute

100.4

0.7

...

800

145 12767.0

136

180 23537

5264

6656

...

709

896

31.1

84.7

3 1 1633.3

677

857

...

185

...

217

...

1490

1884

307

2 7 2392.7

113 5560.2

818

1034

II.6.2 Chemical elements and compounds

...

358

453

II.6.3 Dyeing, tanning and colouring material

...

II.6.4 Medicinal and pharmaceutical products

...

107

II.6.5 Plastic material, regenerated cellulose and artificial resins

...

121

154

II.4

Petroleum, oil and lubricants

II.5

Animal and vegetable oils and fats of which:

II.5.1 Edible oils II.6

Fertilizers and chemical products of which:

II.6.1 Fertilizers and fertilizer mfg

286

II.7

Pulp and waste paper

80.3

71.7

36.9

II.8

Paper, paper board and manufactures thereof

55.6

159

371.4

187

236

II.9

Non-metallic mineral manufactures of which:

...

555

702

...

417

527

1325.2

123

258

683.4

147

194 2031.1

852

1078

...

119

158

...

477

604

...

356

747

...

404

534

...

1910

2416

III.1 Manufactures of metals

...

113

III.2 Non-electrical machinery apparatus and appliances including machine tools b

...

203

426

...

258

341

...

1089

1377

III.3 Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliancesb

...

120

...

260

328

III.4 Transport equipment

...

151

...

472

597

IV.

...

1122

2353

...

1634

2162

... 12549

15869

II.9.1 Pearls, precious and semiprecious stones, unworked or worked II.10 Iron and steel II.11 Non-ferrous metals III.

Capital

goods a

Total Imports

Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;88

A89

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 7.2 (A) : Principal Imports (Contd...) Quantity Value 1990-91 Qty. 1

Thousand tonnes ` crore & US $ million

2000-01

` cr $ million

Qty.

2010-11

` cr $ million

Qty.

` cr $ million

...

19 ...

20 ...

308.3

182

102

69.9

251.5

545

119

Food and live animals chiefly for food (excl. cashew raw) of which:

I.1

Cereals and cereal preparations

II.

Raw materials and intermediate manufactures

...

II.1

Cashewnuts (unprocessed)

82.6

134

249.7

962

211

501.0

2650

578

II.2

Crude rubber (including synthetic and reclaimed)

105.1

226

126

119.1

695

152

587.7

8074

1771

...

II.3

Fibres of which:

II.3.1 Synthetic and regenerated fibres (man-made fibres)

21.2

42.6

275

81.5

957

210

II.3.2 Raw wool

29.4

182

102

53.7

458

100

94.4

1435

315

0.2

212.3

1185

259

56.5

624

137

32.1

67.3

83.1

302

29359 10816

6028

... 71497

15650

II.3.3 Raw cotton II.3.4 Raw jute II.4

Petroleum, oil and lubricants

II.5

Animal and vegetable oils and fats of which:

...

525.8

326

...

7560.3

1766

II.6.2 Chemical elements and compounds

...

2289

1276

II.6.3 Dyeing, tanning and colouring material

...

168

II.6.4 Medicinal and pharmaceutical products

...

468

II.5.1 Edible oils II.6

Fertilizers and chemical products of which:

II.6.1 Fertilizers and fertilizer mfg

II.6.5 Plastic material, regenerated cellulose and artificial resins

...

182 4267.9

6093

...

... 482282 105964 ...

...

1334 6677.6

29860

6551

...

984 7423.4

3034

664 20658.9

31533

6885

...

1542

338

...

13278

2914

...

874

191

...

5368

1178

261

...

1723

377

...

11114

2436

610

...

1095

...

2551

558

...

31304

6874

II.7

Pulp and waste paper

678.2

458

255 1050.9

1290

282 2634.5

5208

1145

II.8

Paper, paper board and manufactures thereof

286.4

456

254

585.6

2005

439 2145.0

9614

2111

...

797

174

...

... 22101

4838

II.9

Non-metallic mineral manufactures of which:

II.9.1 Pearls, precious and semiprecious stones, unworked or worked II.10 Iron and steel II.11 Non-ferrous metals III.

Capital

goods a

III.1 Manufactures of metals

...

3738

2083

1920.5

2113

1178 1613.6

...

1102

614

... 10466

5833

...

302

168

...

4240

2363

...

... 157596

3569

781 9843.9

2462

539

... 25281

5534

... ...

1786

391

... 16915

3703

34620

47275

10376

... 212153

46677

... 231712

50907

...

15167

3332

... 118928

26111

machinery b

III.2 Non-electrical apparatus and appliances including machine tools III.3 Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliancesb

...

1702

949

...

2227

487

...

17510

3845

III.4 Transport equipment

...

1670

931

...

4353

953

...

52112

11467

... 43198

24075

... 230873

49975

... 1683467

369769

Total Imports

Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;89

A90

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 7.2 (A) : Principal Imports (Contd...) Quantity Value 2013-14

2013-14 (April-November)

Thousand tonnes ` crore & US $ million 2014-15 (April-November)(P)

Qty.

` cr

$ million

Qty.

` cr

$ million

Qty.

` cr

$ million

Food and live animals chiefly for food (excl. cashew raw) of which:

...

I.1

Cereals and cereal preparations

553

362

390

II.

Raw materials and intermediate manufactures

...

II.1 II.2

Cashewnuts (unprocessed) Crude rubber (including synthetic and reclaimed)

771

4564

756

635

3476

580

791

5312

851

862

12882

2125

601

9078

1509

650

8617

1282

...

II.3.1 Synthetic and regenerated fibres (man-made fibres)

119

1889

312

1268

212

119

1670

247

II.3.2 Raw wool II.3.3 Raw cotton II.3.4 Raw jute

90 181 53

1962 2376 146

325 394 26

61 150 49

1314 1942 134

220 324 24

68 202 40

1545 2604 123

233 389 20

218846

997885

164770

... 648933

108285

... 644955

96083

Animal and vegetable oils and fats of which: II.5.1 Edible oils 10453

56572

9346

6948 36746

6138

8559 45046

6615

38157 22489 9095

6264 16233 30289 3725 ... 14902 1503 ... 6031

4993 17964 31373 2497 ... 16865 1007 ... 6686

4176 2496 987

17941

2973

... 11837

1985

... 12942

1890

54970 8379

9096 1385

... 36018 2426 5505

6028 920

... 46086 3066 7024

6766 1006

15064

2485

1881

9946

1657

1953 11250

1643

144167 48081 226160 328866 24577

23968 7947 21100 54379 4065

... 95737 5096 31738 ... 166366 ... 216095 ... 16106

16129 5303 29016 36128 2694

... 95003 7222 42927 ... 195414 ... 201150 ... 17348

13820 6246 19400 33218 2866

155114

25680

... 102191

17118

... 103559

17101

26318 95415

4345 15738

... 17305 ... 61627

2886 10267

... 18133 ... 47285

2994 7810

... 2715434

450200

...1801893

302327

...1911137

315652

II.3

II.4

Fibres of which:

Petroleum, oil and lubricants

II.5

II.6 II.6.1 II.6.2 II.6.3 II.6.4 II.6.5 II.7 II.8 II.9 II.9.1 II.10 II.11 III. III.1 III.2 III.3 III.4

Fertilizers and chemical products of which: Fertilizers and fertilizer mfg 22062 Chemical elements and compounds ... Dyeing, tanning and ... colouring material Medicinal and pharmaceutical products ... Plastic material, regenerated cellulose and artificial resins ... Pulp and waste paper 3650 Paper, paper board and manufactures thereof 2761 Non-metallic mineral manufactures of which: Pearls, precious and semiprecious stones, unworked or worked ... Iron and steel 7447 Non-ferrous metals ... ... Capital goods a Manufactures of metals ... Non-electrical machinery b apparatus and appliances including machine tools ... Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliancesb ... Transport equipment ... Total Imports

Source : DGCI&S, Kolkata. ... : Not available. P : Provisional a : From the year 1987-88 onwards, Capital Goods include Project Goods. b : From the year 1991-92 onwards, Items III.2 & III.3 exclude electronic goods.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;90

Economic Survey 2014-15

A91

Table 7.2(B) : Share and Percentage Change of Major Imports Percentage change a

Percentage share Commodity Group

2012-13 2013-14 2013-14 2014-15P 2012-13 2013-14 (Apr.(Apr.Nov.) Nov.)

I. Food and allied products b

-15.8

2013-14 2014-15P (Apr.(Apr.Nov.) Nov.)

3.4

3.2

3.8

17.0

-16.4

25.6

1. Cerealsc

0.0

16.7

6.5

4.3

6.7

2. Pulses

0.5

0.4

0.5

25.6

-25.5

-18.5

31.0

3. Cashew Nuts

0.2

0.3

-12.0

-23.0

-23.4

51.1

4. Edible Oils

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.4

16.3

-16.7

-21.8

21.2

36.9

40.2

39.4

37.5

4.9

0.2

-0.4

-0.7

of which

II. Fuel 5.

Coald

6. POL III.Fertilizers e IV. Paper board manufactures & newsprint

3.5

3.6

3.8

-2.5

-3.7

-8.5

10.2

33.4

36.6

35.8

33.8

5.9

0.4

0.2

-1.5

1.8

1.4

1.7

1.6

-21.2

-28.1

-26.0

2.4

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.6

-7.3

4.6

3.8

11.8

12.8

12.1

11.9

10.5

-3.4

-13.5

-11.2

-8.0

7. Machinery except elec & machine tool

5.6

5.2

5.0

-8.3

-14.5

-14.6

0.3

8. Electrical machinery

0.9

1.0

0.9

-7.0

-2.1

-2.7

3.6

V. Capital goods f of which

9. Transport equipment

3.5

3.4

2.5

22.3

-8.4

2.2

-24.1

10. Project goods

1.3

1.0

0.8

-25.6

-30.8

-32.6

-22.3

44.6

42.6

43.3

46.0

-2.3

-13.1

-8.0

12.0

5.0

5.6

5.7

6.0

2.7

4.2

5.2

10.8

VI.O t h e r s of which 11. Chemicalsg 12. Pearls precious semi precious stones

4.6

5.3

5.0

-19.3

5.4

20.3

-1.9

13. Iron & steel h

2.2

1.8

2.2

-8.8

-27.4

-27.5

33.7

14. Non-ferrous metals i

1.0

1.2

1.4

4.4

6.7

14.3

22.7

11.4

7.4

8.4

8.8

-9.6

-40.4

-24.5

9.2

1.1

1.2

2.0

-3.7

-3.9

10.6

6.4

6.9

7.0

7.4

-3.8

-1.5

2.2

10.1

100.0

0.3

-8.3

-5.9

4.4

15. Gold & Silver 16. Professional instruments, optical goods, etc. 17. Electronic Goods Total Imports

Source : DGCI&S, Kolkata. P : Provisional a : In ter ms of US dollar b : Including tea, sugar, milk and cream, spices, fruits & nuts. c : Including wheat, rice and cereals preparations. d : Including coke and briquettes. e : Including fertilizers crude and fertilizers manufactured. f : Including manufactures of metals. g : Including organic chemical, inorganic chemical, chemical materials & products and dyeing, tanning & colouring material. h : Including primary steel and pig iron based items. I : Excluding gold and silver

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;91

A92

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 7.3 (A) : Principal Exports Quantity Value 1960-61 Qty.

Agricultural and allied products: of which

I.1

Coffee

: :

Thousand tonnes ` crore & US $ million

1970-71

` cr $ million

Qty.

1980-81

` cr $ million

Qty.

` cr $ million

...

284

596

...

487

644

...

2057

2601

19.7

32.2

87.3

214

271

I.2

Tea and mate

199.2

124

260

199.1

148

196

229.2

426

538

I.3

Oil cakes

433.8

878.5

886.0

125

158

I.4

Tobacco

47.5

49.8

91.3

141

178

I.5

Cashew kernels

43.6

60.6

32.3

140

177

I.6

Spices

47.2

46.9

84.2

I.7

Sugar and molasses

99.6

473.0

97.0

I.8

Raw cotton

32.6

32.1

131.6

165

209

I.9

Rice

...

32.8

726.7

224

283

I.10

Fish and fish preparations

19.9

32.6

69.4

217

274

I.11

Meat and meat preparations

...

I.12

Fruits, vegetables and pulses (excl. cashew kernels, processed fruits & juices)

...

101

...

109

...

164

217

...

414

523

28.4

...

26.7

16.7

I.13

Miscellaneous processed foods (incl. processed fruits and juices)

II.

Ores and minerals (excl. coal) of which

II.1

Mica

II.2

Iron ore (million tonne)

III.

Manufactured goods of which

3.2

21.2

117

155

22.4

303

384

...

291

610

...

772

1021

...

3747

4738

III.1 Textile fabrics & manufactures (excl. carpets hand-made) of which

...

153

...

145

192

...

933

1179

III.1.1Cotton yarn,fabrics, made-ups etc.

...

136

...

142

188

...

408

516

III.1.2Readymade garments of all textile materials

...

550

696

III.2 Coir yarn and manufactures

...

790.0

135

283

560.0

190

252

660.0

330

417

...

106

...

390

493

III.5 Handicrafts (incl. carpets hand-made)c of which:

...

952

1204

III.5.1Gems and jewellery

...

618

782

...

225

284

III.7 Machinery, transport & metal manufactures including iron and steelb

...

198

261

...

827

1045

IV.

Mineral fuels and lubricants (incl.coal) d

...

Total Exports

...

642

1346

...

1535

2031

...

6711

III.3 Jute manufactures incl.twist & yarn III.4 Leather & leather manufactures incl. leather footwear,leather travel goods & leather garments

III.6 Chemicals and allied

productsa

8486 Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;92

A93

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 7.3 (A) : Principal Exports (Contd.) Quantity Value 1990-91 Qty. 1 I.

2 Agricultural and allied products: of which

I. 1

Coffee

I. 2

Tea and mate

I. 3

: :

Thousand tonnes ` crore & US $ million

2000-01

` cr $ million

...

6317

3521

Qty. 15

2010-11

` cr $ million

Qty.

` cr $ million

... 28582

6256

...

111393

24448

86.5

252

141

184.9

1185

259

232.6

3010

662

199.1

1070

596

202.4

1976

433

238.3

3354

736

Oil cakes

2447.8

609

339

2417.8

2045

448

6936.9

11070

2438

I. 4

Tobacco

87.1

263

147

108.3

871

191

215.9

3985

875

I. 5

Cashew kernels

55.5

447

249

83.8

1883

412 12156.5

2853

627

I. 6

Spices

103.3

239

133

244.9

1619

354

8043

1768

I. 7

Sugar and molasses

191.0

769.0

511

112

2086.3

5633

1246

I. 8

Raw cotton

374.4

846

471

30.2

224

1885.8

13160

2910

I. 9

Rice

505.0

462

257

1534.4

2943

644

2471.4

11586

2545

I. 10 Fish and fish preparations

762.7

158.9

960

535

502.6

6367

1394

825.3

11917

2623

I. 11 Meat and meat preparations

...

140

...

1470

322

...

8960

1971

I. 12 Fruits, vegetables and pulses (excl.cashew kernels, processed fruits & juices)

...

216

120

...

1609

352

...

6350

1397

I. 13 Miscellaneous processed foods (incl. processed fruits and juices)

...

213

119

...

1094

239

...

3669

806

II.

Ores and minerals (excl. coal) of which

...

1497

834

...

4139

906

...

39098

8581

II.1

Mica

42.0

63.2

125.8

189

II.2

Iron ore (million tonne)

32.5

1049

585 20161.4

1634

358

46.9

21416

4715

III.

Manufactured goods of which

... 160723

35181

789433

173263

... 23736

13229

III. 1 Textile fabrics & manufactures (excl. carpets hand-made) of which

...

6832

3807

...

III.1.1Cotton yarn,fabrics, made-ups etc.

...

2100

1170

... 16030

3509

...

13160

2910

III.1.2Readymade garments of all textile materials

...

4012

2236

... 25478

5577

...

52861

11614

III. 2 Coir yarn and manufactures

...

221

...

726

159

220.0

298

166

...

932

204

...

2092

459

III. 3 Jute manufactures incl.twist & yarn III. 4 Leather & leather manufactures incl. leather footwear,leather travel goods & leather garments

...

2600

1449

...

8914

1951

...

17818

3909

III. 5 Handicrafts (incl. carpets hand-made) c of which

...

6167

3437

...

5097

1116

...

5877

1293

III.5.1 Gems and jewellery

...

5247

2924

... 33734

7384

... 184420

40509

...

2111

1176

... 22851

5002

... 131544

28905

...

3872

2158

... 31870

6976

... 226805

49815

... 948 ... 32553

528 18143

... 8822 ... 203571

1931 44076

192639 1142922

42280 251136

III. 6 Chemicals and allied

productsa

III. 7 Machinery, transport & metal manufactures including iron and steelb IV.

Mineral fuels and lubricants (incl.coal) d Total Exports

Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;93

A94

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 7.3 (A) : Principal Exports (Contd...) Quantity Value 2013-14 Qty.

2013-14 (April-Nov..)

` cr $ million 22

Agricultural and allied products: ... 260953 of which I. 1 Coffee 253.9 4799 I. 2 Tea and mate 249.9 4873 I. 3 Oil cakes 6576.5 17070 I. 4 Tobacco 262.0 6134 I. 5 Cashew kernels 130.2 5134 I. 6 Spices 896.6 15146 I. 7 Sugar and molasses 2689.3 7326 I. 8 Raw cotton 1947.7 22338 I. 9 Rice 10902.5 47087 I. 10 Fish and fish preparations 1000.8 30627 I. 11 Meat and meat preparations ... 27163 I. 12 Fruits, vegetables and pulses (excl.cashew kernels, processed fruits & juices) ... 10779 I. 13 Miscellaneous processed foods (incl. processed fruits and juices) ... 11590 II. Ores and minerals (excl. coal) ... 34859 of which II.1 Mica 127.2 306 II.2 Iron ore (million tonne) 16.3 9481 III. Manufactured goods ... 1207865 of which III. 1 Textile fabrics & manufactures (excl. carpets hand-made) ... 41581 of which III.1.1Cotton yarn,fabrics, made-ups etc. ... 58663 III.1.2Readymade garments of all textile materials ... 90718 III. 2 Coir yarn and manufactures ... 1397 III. 3 Jute manufactures incl.twist & yarn ... 2428 III. 4 Leather & leather manufactures incl. leather footwear,leather travel goods & leather garments ... 34732 III. 5 Handicrafts (incl. carpets hand-made)c ... 16241 of which III. 5.1 Gems and jewellery ... 250353 III. 6 Chemicals and allied productsa ... 217055 III. 7 Machinery, transport & metal manufactures including iron and steelb ... 374951 IV. Mineral fuels and lubricants ... 392225 (incl.coal) d

43133

Total Exports Source

: : : : d:

a b c

... 1905011

Qty. 24

` cr $ million 25

... 158277

26447

793 160.2 806 157.8 2822 3995.1 1014 180.7 849 89.5 2504 579.8 1211 1235.8 3692 698.4 7783 7033.9 5062 658.2 4490 ...

3032 3200 9918 4129 3437 10031 3267 7963 29183 20224 17156

Thousand tonnes ` crore & US $ million 2014-15 (April-Nov.)(P) Qty. 27

` cr $ million 28

... 158824

26238

507 142.9 535 138.5 1657 2273.7 690 158.1 574 99.8 1676 634.7 546 1374.4 1331 597.9 4876 7472.1 3379 722.4 2867 ...

3190 2760 4424 3672 3677 10163 3536 6507 31303 24045 20169

527 456 731 607 608 1679 584 1075 5171 3972 3332

1782

...

6492

1085

...

5700

942

1916 5762

... ...

7408 22358

1238 3736

... ...

8589 19067

1419 3150

93.8 225 4.5 2279 ... 837340

37 377 138330

51 1567 199648

83.0 200 33 10.3 6002 1003 ... 778439 130074

6873

...

26682

4458

...

28050

4634

9696

...

37725

6304

...

37760

6238

14995 231 401

... ... ...

55839 869 1611

9330 145 269

... ... ...

65083 946 1456

10752 156 240

5741 2685

... ...

22034 10529

3682 1759

... ...

25612 11622

4231 1920

41381 35877

... 168465 ... 138855

28150 23202

... 171998 ... 152034

28414 25116

61976 64831

... 234472 ... 266817

39179 44584

... 282249 ... 251538

46628 41554

... 1231787 205826

... 1273346

211863

314405

DGCI&S, Kolkata ... : Not Available. P : Provisional Chemicals and allied products figures relate to "Basic Chemicals" and "Plastic Linoleum products". Also includes electronic goods and computer software. Gems and Jewellery excluded from Handicarafts and reported as individual item since 1997-98. During 1990-91 and 2000-01 crude oil exports amount to Nil.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;94

A95

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 7.3 (B) : Share and Percentage Change of Major Exports Percentage change a

Percentage share Commodity Group

1 I.

Agriculture & allied

2012-13 2013-14 2013-14 2014-15P 2012-13 2013-14 (Apr.(Apr.Nov.) Nov.) 2 3 4 5 6 7 13.6

13.7

12.9

12.5

9.0

2013-14 (Apr.Nov.)

2014-15P (Apr.Nov.)

5.3

6.6

-0.8 -14.7

of which

II.

Tea

0.3

0.2

1.9

-7.1

-8.9

Coffee

0.3

0.2

0.3

-8.5

-8.4

-9.6

4.0

Cereals

3.2

3.3

3.1

51.2

8.7

21.7

-1.2

Unmfg. Tobacco

0.2

0.3

0.2

15.9

12.7

24.0

-22.8

Spices

0.9

0.8

2.0

-10.2

-13.1

0.2

Cashewnuts

0.3

-18.9

12.7

16.1

5.8

Oil Meals

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.3

23.3

-7.1

16.4

-55.9

Fruits & Vegetables & Pulses

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.4

7.8

31.4

45.8

-13.2

Marine Products

1.2

1.6

1.9

0.1

46.2

42.6

17.6

1 0 Raw Cotton

1.2

0.6

0.5

-17.4

-0.9

-2.1

-19.2

Ores and Minerals

1.9

1.8

1.5

-33.3

1.6

-2.3

-15.7

1 1 Iron Ore

0.5

0.2

-64.3

-5.1

-18.3

-62.5

1 2 Processed minerals

0.3

15.0

-3.6

-0.6

3.7

1 3 Other ores & minerals

0.7

8.1

10.8

9.8

0.5

63.4

63.5

63.3

65.9

-5.0

4.8

5.8

6.4

of which

III. Manufactured goods of which 1 4 Leather & Manufactures

1.1

1.2

1.3

3.8

15.9

15.8

11.4

1 5 Leather footwear

0.6

0.7

-1.4

20.2

17.6

21.7

1 6 Gems & Jewellery

14.3

13.2

13.7

13.5

-7.1

-3.9

-0.6

1.0

1 7 Drugs,Pharmaceuticals & fine 1.4

1.1

1.2

1.1

-5.2

-14.7

-16.4

-4.7

1 8 Dyes/intmdts. & Coaltar chemicals

chemicals

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.8

10.7

22.9

16.9

26.2

1 9 Manufactures of metals

4.7

4.4

4.2

5.1

2.4

-1.0

-4.0

23.7

2 0 Machinery & instruments

5.1

5.2

5.0

5.8

2.6

6.7

5.6

17.5

2 1 Transport equipments

5.7

6.4

6.2

7.7

-8.6

17.4

12.1

26.6

2.7

2.9

2.8

-2.4

14.4

20.3

0.1

2.5

2.3

2.4

1.8

-8.9

-4.2

-2.3

-24.0

2 2 Primary & semi-finished Iron & Steel 2 3 Electronic Goods 2 4 Cotton yarn,fabs,made-ups etc.

2.7

3.1

3.0

10.3

17.6

23.9

-1.0

2 5 Readymade Garments

4.3

4.8

4.5

5.1

-5.6

15.8

16.2

15.2

2 6 Handicrafts

0.3

0.5

0.4

-0.5

52.7

39.9

-3.4

20.6

21.7

19.8

7.4

4.7

12.8

-6.8

0.4

0.5

-16.9

18.8

17.3

10.3

100.0

-1.8

4.7

7.0

2.3

Crude & Petroleum Products

Other & unclassified items

(incl. Coal) Total Exports Source : DGCI&S, Kolkata P : Provisional a : In terms of US dollar

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;95

REGIONS/COUNTRIES

Change 2013-14 (4) over (US$ (` crore) (2) (Per million) cent)

Share (Per cent)

April-Nov. 2013-14 (US$ (` crore) million)

April-Nov. Change 2014-15 (P) (10) over (US$ (` crore) (8) (Per million) cent)

Share (Per cent)

A—96

I Europe 87,528 (a) EU Countries (27) 52,275 1) GERMANY 14,326 2) BELGIUM 10,047 3) U K 6,293 4) ITALY 4,711 5) FRANCE 4,652 6) NETHERLAND 2,379 7) SPAIN 1,816 8) SWEDEN 1,681 9) FINLAND 1,107 10) AUSTRIA 929 11) POLAND 863 12) IRELAND 497 13) CZECH REPUBLIC 644 14) DENMARK 542 15) ROMANIA 311 16) PORTUGAL 378 17) HUNGARY 263 18) SLOVENIA 118 19) ESTONIA 220 20) GREECE 112 21) LATVIA 74 22) BULGARIA 90 23) LITHUANIA 46 24) SLOVAK REP 63 25) LUXEMBOURG 48 26) MALTA 43 27) CYPRUS 21 (b) European Free Trade Associatipn (EFTA) 33,115 1) SWITZERLAND 32,167 2) NORWAY 945 3) ICELAND 2 4) LIECHTENSTEIN 1 (c) Other European Countries 2,139 1) TURKEY 2,034 2) ALBANIA 31 3) MACEDONIA 23 4) CROATIA 18 5) UNION OF SERBIA & MONTENEGRO 13 6) BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA 20

475,626 284,327 77,934 54,537 34,231 25,652 25,351 12,948 9,894 9,156 6,005 5,034 4,695 2,707 3,502 2,950 1,693 2,061 1,432 639 1,201 610 403 491 249 344 263 231 116 179,669 174,512 5,140 12 5 11,630 11,061 167 125 99 72 106

71,010 49,951 12,932 10,752 6,045 4,157 3,692 3,139 1,843 1,679 1,054 829 623 558 518 445 376 340 220 118 115 109 104 94 54 53 46 34 20 20,063 19,311 745 7 0 996 760 199 20 10 6 2

424,266 301,284 78,210 64,672 36,043 25,141 22,331 18,921 11,172 10,158 6,422 5,018 3,780 3,379 3,140 2,692 2,268 2,075 1,334 714 710 659 622 568 323 322 277 210 122 116,922 112,338 4,540 41 3 6,060 4,594 1,244 121 58 33 10

-18.9 -4.4 -9.7 7.0 -3.9 -11.8 -20.6 31.9 1.5 -0.1 -4.8 -10.8 -27.9 12.3 -19.6 -17.8 20.7 -10.1 -16.1 0.5 -47.6 -2.2 41.1 4.0 17.0 -16.2 -4.0 -19.1 -4.5 -39.4 -40.0 -21.1 200.0 -44.7 -53.4 -62.6 540.5 -13.2 -46.1 -57.2 -91.6

15.8 11.1 2.9 2.4 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

48,901 33,509 8,548 7,065 4,544 2,692 2,509 2,272 1,123 1,116 554 537 425 394 339 297 266 184 145 84 80 71 63 63 33 33 33 23 14 14,805 14,333 471 1 0 587 403 151 20 7 5 1

287,692 199,677 51,115 41,879 26,766 16,089 15,030 13,582 6,720 6,681 3,327 3,217 2,557 2,366 2,032 1,779 1,589 1,113 867 500 494 418 369 376 195 198 196 141 82 84,477 81,633 2,835 6 2 3,538 2,396 945 120 39 32 7

50,958 32,846 8,687 7,644 3,348 2,868 2,473 1,774 1,215 1,192 643 577 431 351 338 303 200 106 158 71 80 92 27 72 95 44 23 18 15 17,025 16,462 560 3 1 1,088 995 50 3 26 11 3

308,782 198,807 52,619 46,206 20,316 17,356 14,934 10,744 7,354 7,234 3,891 3,491 2,612 2,121 2,046 1,835 1,209 642 955 432 482 555 165 435 572 265 136 110 89 103,405 99,987 3,398 16 4 6,570 6,014 298 18 160 65 15

4.2 -2.0 1.6 8.2 -26.3 6.5 -1.4 -21.9 8.1 6.8 16.1 7.4 1.4 -11.1 0.0 1.9 -24.7 -42.4 8.8 -14.8 -0.8 30.3 -56.2 14.5 187.5 32.5 -32.0 -21.9 7.0 15.0 14.9 18.9 148.1 90.6 85.3 146.7 -66.7 -84.4 305.4 96.5 106.5

16.1 10.4 2.8 2.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 5.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Contd...

Economic Survey 2014-15

2012-13 (US$ (` crore) million)

A96

Table 7.4 (A) : Direction of Imports : Imports by Regions and Countries (Contd...)

Table 7.4 (A) : Direction of Imports : Imports by Regions and Countries (Contd...) REGIONS/COUNTRIES 2012-13 (US$ (` crore) million) 1

Change 2013-14 (4) over (US$ (` crore) (2) (Per million) cent)

A—97

4 36,627 6,598 6,075 383 125 13 3 6,541 5,992 293 243 13 17,237 14,098 868 371 302 298 268 194 168 154 156 110 90 71 29 27 17 7 6 3 1 0 0 108 47 33 15 11 1 0 0

April-Nov. Change 2014-15 (P) (10) over (US$ (` crore) (8) (Per million) cent)

221,340 -10.9 39,081 -26.9 35,858 -31.6 2,361 564.8 770 76.3 78 41.5 14 -42.4 39,962 -16.2 36,651 -16.3 1,781 0.5 1,454 -25.2 76 -63.8 104,580 6.0 85,767 16.6 5,077 6.3 2,250 33.5 1,869 -42.5 1,791 -22.3 1,624 -39.5 1,116 -63.2 1,001 -31.8 954 39284.6 949 -11.9 678 -21.8 539 -80.3 426 140.0 182 -3.7 156 27.8 101 12.9 44 -34.7 34 -4.1 19 -7.0 3 -99.2 1 -10.0 0 0 647 -53.0 277 0.0 200 20.9 94 -64.9 68 -92.8 5 -54.3 2 4.2 1 -21.7

8.1 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.8 3.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

24,770 4,712 4,587 95 16 11 2 4,428 4,063 161 200 5 11,260 9,034 709 179 77 266 161 163 147 108 98 102 68 70 28 23 16 5 4 3 0 0 0 90 42 25 11 11 1 0 0

148,140 27,430 26,669 587 95 66 14 26,954 24,773 963 1,190 28 67,659 54,496 4,091 1,068 472 1,589 955 923 872 672 589 629 408 422 172 133 99 28 23 16 3 0 0 534 241 150 70 65 5 1 0

28,069 5,156 4,360 756 10 29 1 3,862 3,504 184 153 20 15,067 10,669 707 545 563 490 475 513 197 154 138 158 236 73 34 4 67 26 15 2 0 0 0 177 112 28 22 14 1 1 0

169,876 31,221 26,414 4,564 64 174 5 23,338 21,172 1,116 926 125 91,218 64,623 4,272 3,305 3,415 2,955 2,858 3,101 1,188 934 836 964 1,424 441 208 26 409 158 89 10 2 1 0 1,076 682 167 136 84 4 3 1

13.3 9.4 -4.9 693.1 -34.2 161.7 -63.8 -12.8 -13.7 14.7 -23.8 332.0 33.8 18.1 -0.3 204.0 634.9 84.5 195.5 215.0 34.5 42.8 40.2 55.3 245.2 4.0 24.2 -81.7 310.9 463.7 278.5 -42.7 -41.7 -81.3 -91.7 97.1 170.6 10.1 96.3 27.0 -36.3 168.4 283.3

Share (Per cent) 13 8.9 1.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.8 3.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Contd...

A97

3 223,578 49,092 48,320 313 386 50 24 42,491 38,946 1,589 1,769 187 88,481 65,622 4,480 1,516 2,866 2,105 2,414 2,871 1,350 2 968 768 2,501 161 167 114 80 61 32 19 387 1 0 1,242 0 150 234 845 11 1 1

April-Nov. 2013-14 (US$ (` crore) million)

Economic Survey 2014-15

II Africa 41,111 (a) Southern African Customs Union (SACU) 9,030 1) SOUTH AFRICA 8,888 2) BOTSWANA 58 3) SWAZILAND 71 4) NAMIBIA 9 5) LESOTHO 4 (b) Other South African Countries 7,808 1) ANGOLA 7,158 2) MOZAMBIQUE 291 3) ZAMBIA 325 4) ZIMBABWE 35 (c) West Africa 16,264 1) NIGERIA 12,086 2) GABON 817 3) GHANA 278 4) EQUTL GUINEA 525 5) COTE D’ IVOIRE 384 6) CAMEROON 443 7) GUINEA 528 8) BENIN 246 9) SENEGAL 0 10) TOGO 177 11) GUINEA BISSAU 140 12) CONGO P REP 455 13) MALI 30 14) GAMBIA 30 15) LIBERIA 21 16) BURKINA FASO 15 17) MAURITANIA 11 18) SIERRA LEONE 6 19) CAPE VERDE IS 3 20) NIGER 69 21) ST HELENA 0 22) SAO TOME 0 (d) Central Africa 230 1) CONGO D. REP. 0 2) UGANDA 27 3) MALAWI 43 4) CHAD 157 5) C AFRI REP 2 6) RWANDA 0 7) BURUNDI 0

Share (Per cent)

REGIONS/COUNTRIES

A—98

(e) East Africa 1) TANZANIA REP 2) KENYA 3) MADAGASCAR 4) SOMALIA 5) ETHIOPIA 6) REUNION 7) MAURITIUS 8) COMOROS 9) DJIBOUTI 10) SEYCHELLES (f) North Africa 1) EGYPT A RP 2) MOROCCO 3) ALGERIA 4) SUDAN 5) LIBYA 6) TUNISIA III America (a) North America 1) U S A 2) MEXICO 3) CANADA (b) Latin America 1) VENEZUELA 2) COLOMBIA 3) BRAZIL 4) CHILE 5) ARGENTINA 6) PERU 7) BAHAMAS 8) ECUADOR 9) COSTA RICA 10) PANAMA REPUBLIC 11) HONDURAS 12) URUGUAY 13) SURINAME 14) GUATEMALA 15) DOMINIC REP 16) EL SALVADOR 17) GUYANA

Change 2013-14 (4) over (US$ (` crore) (2) (Per million) cent)

Share (Per cent)

April-Nov. 2013-14 (US$ (` crore) million)

April-Nov. Change 2014-15 (P) (10) over (US$ (` crore) (8) (Per million) cent)

1,055 753 106 73 13 39 28 28 8 5 2 6,723 2,553 1,309 684 127 1,835 215 59,540 32,043 25,205 4,038 2,800 27,497 14,118 2,353 4,826 2,992 1,199 561 102 873 220 110 18 24 13 8 11 9 5

5,736 4,096 577 394 68 209 151 155 44 28 13 36,535 13,854 7,127 3,715 693 9,980 1,166 324,089 174,389 137,239 21,873 15,277 149,700 76,835 12,813 26,439 16,214 6,504 3,051 556 4,708 1,197 597 97 133 73 45 59 47 25

1,034 724 127 53 46 28 23 21 7 4 1 5,109 2,389 879 861 436 452 92 57,454 29,326 22,505 3,672 3,148 28,128 13,940 4,971 3,721 2,508 1,338 524 494 255 204 42 23 20 13 13 13 8 7

6,160 4,298 763 317 279 170 137 125 41 24 6 30,910 14,391 5,388 5,232 2,697 2,645 557 347,400 176,996 135,613 22,353 19,030 170,404 84,384 29,996 22,547 15,230 8,155 3,172 3,052 1,588 1,236 251 137 124 79 78 76 48 44

-2.0 -3.8 19.5 -27.5 269.9 -26.3 -17.8 -26.9 -17.8 -19.9 -58.8 -24.0 -6.4 -32.8 25.9 243.3 -75.4 -57.5 -3.5 -8.5 -10.7 -9.0 12.4 2.3 -1.3 111.3 -22.9 -16.2 11.6 -6.6 383.2 -70.7 -7.2 -62.0 26.8 -16.3 -1.9 57.9 15.6 -7.5 58.6

0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.8 6.5 5.0 0.8 0.7 6.2 3.1 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

654 459 81 33 28 16 16 14 3 3 1 3,625 1,683 634 636 226 388 60 38,072 20,353 16,056 2,300 1,997 17,719 9,512 2,579 2,326 1,717 861 343 1 122 144 25 16 14 9 9 10 6 5

3,815 2,658 481 195 165 92 93 85 21 19 5 21,748 10,026 3,868 3,842 1,399 2,251 363 227,590 121,525 95,751 13,865 11,910 106,064 57,039 15,226 13,902 10,317 5,213 2,051 3 763 864 150 96 84 53 56 58 35 28

843 611 84 49 36 22 16 15 8 1 1 2,963 1,231 639 360 504 68 161 39,133 19,330 14,551 2,305 2,474 19,803 9,045 1,582 3,631 2,200 1,498 373 0 970 131 22 19 14 20 13 67 6 7

5,101 3,701 507 296 219 134 95 90 49 4 5 17,922 7,457 3,871 2,179 3,033 408 973 236,999 117,074 88,128 13,931 15,016 119,925 54,790 9,618 21,982 13,312 9,088 2,262 2 5,819 788 134 115 88 121 76 413 36 42

28.9 33.3 3.5 48.0 30.4 39.7 0.4 4.5 131.7 -78.8 -4.5 -18.3 -26.9 0.9 -43.4 123.4 -82.4 168.4 2.8 -5.0 -9.4 0.2 23.9 11.8 -4.9 -38.7 56.1 28.1 74.0 8.8 -34.5 694.0 -9.1 -12.7 18.7 4.4 125.3 33.0 597.5 1.9 48.5

Share (Per cent) 13 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 12.4 6.1 4.6 0.7 0.8 6.3 2.9 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Contd...

Economic Survey 2014-15

2012-13 (US$ (` crore) million)

A98

Table 7.4 (A) : Direction of Imports : Imports by Regions and Countries (Contd...)

Table 7.4 (A) : Direction of Imports : Imports by Regions and Countries (Contd...) REGIONS/COUNTRIES 2012-13 (US$ (` crore) million) 1

A—99

Share (Per cent)

5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 273,198 10,628 9,823 615 178 5 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0

33 33 26 16 15 15 14 14 10 9 6 6 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1,650,452 63,822 58,958 3,701 1,084 33 30 11 5 0 0 0 0 0

-39.0 -39.9 -72.5 223.2 79.0 -39.2 -67.3 465.0 11.1 638.1 -28.0 -62.5 22.0 -16.7 -83.5 200.0 140.0 10.0 -95.6 -82.6 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 1,000 -6.7 -23.7 -24.9 -11.8 70.4 -65.0 -77.4 44.9 1560.0 -71.4 -88.9 0.0 0 0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 60.7 2.4 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0

April-Nov. Change 2014-15 (P) (10) over (US$ (` crore) (8) (Per million) cent)

4 25 4 27 2 13 2 13 0 2 1 6 2 11 1 9 1 4 0 1 1 3 1 4 0 3 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 184,585 1,102,907 7,159 42,399 6,628 39,235 428 2,549 96 572 0 0 5 30 2 9 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

55 1 138 2 1 1 2 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 186,744 7,434 6,876 426 122 1 5 1 0 0 1 0 1 0

334 6 829 11 3 6 9 3 14 1 5 7 0 0 3 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 1,130,559 45,053 41,679 2,577 741 5 31 4 2 0 7 0 9 0

1241.1 -77.5 6058.0 -20.2 63.6 6.1 -13.7 -60.0 240.0 0.0 50.9 94.9 -88.4 -61.9 470.0 -100.0 -90.9 54.5 0.0 3500.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 3.8 3.7 -0.5 27.5 0.0 9.3 -63.5 -51.8 -50.0 5700.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Share (Per cent) 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.2 2.4 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Contd...

A99

9 47 9 48 16 87 1 4 1 7 4 22 7 40 0 2 1 8 0 1 1 7 2 13 0 2 0 2 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 9 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 292,686 1,592,142 13,930 75,825 13,086 71,217 697 3,800 105 571 15 83 21 116 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 29

April-Nov. 2013-14 (US$ (` crore) million)

Economic Survey 2014-15

18) PARAGUAY 19) TRINIDAD 20) NETHERLANDANTIL 21) NICARAGUA 22) FR GUIANA 23) CUBA 24) BOLIVIA 25) VIRGIN IS US 26) FALKLAND IS 27) BELIZE 28) HAITI 29) JAMAICA 30) ST LUCIA 31) GUADELOUPE 32) BR VIRGN IS 33) MARTINIQUE 34) TURKS C IS 35) BARBADOS 36) DOMINICA 37) ANTIGUA 38) ST KITT N A 39) CAYMAN IS 40) MONTSERRAT 41) GRENADA 42) BERMUDA IV Asia (a) East Asia (Oceania) 1) AUSTRALIA 2) NEW ZEALAND 3) PAPUA N GNA 4) SOLOMON IS 5) NAURU RP 6) FIJI IS 7) TIMOR LESTE 8) TONGA 9) SAMOA 10) KIRIBATI REP 11) TUVALU 12) VANUATU REP

Change 2013-14 (4) over (US$ (` crore) (2) (Per million) cent)

REGIONS/COUNTRIES

A—100

(b) ASEAN 1) INDONESIA 2) MALAYSIA 3) SINGAPORE 4) THAILAND 5) VIETNAM SOC REP 6) MYANMAR 7) BRUNEI 8) PHILIPPINES 9) LAO PD RP 10) CAMBODIA (c) West Asia- GCC 1) SAUDI ARAB 2) U ARAB EMTS 3) KUWAIT 4) QATAR 5) OMAN 6) BAHARAIN IS (d) Other West Asia 1) IRAQ 2) IRAN 3) ISRAEL 4) YEMEN REPUBLC 5) JORDAN 6) SYRIA 7) LEBANON (e) NE Asia 1) CHINA P RP 2) KOREA RP 3) JAPAN 4) HONG KONG 5) TAIWAN 6) KOREA DP RP 7) MONGOLIA 8) MACAO (e) South Asia 1) SRI LANKA DSR 2) NEPAL 3) BANGLADESH PR 4) PAKISTAN IR

Change 2013-14 (4) over (US$ (` crore) (2) (Per million) cent)

Share (Per cent)

April-Nov. 2013-14 (US$ (` crore) million)

April-Nov. Change 2014-15 (P) (10) over (US$ (` crore) (8) (Per million) cent)

42,866 14,879 9,951 7,486 5,353 2,315 1,413 815 504 139 12 108,092 33,998 39,138 16,588 15,693 2,010 665 35,210 19,247 11,594 2,357 959 942 80 30 89,907 52,248 13,105 12,412 7,907 3,963 259 10 2 2,680 626 543 639 542

233,316 80,966 54,199 40,764 29,113 12,594 7,701 4,406 2,744 765 65 587,778 184,685 212,923 90,184 85,458 10,931 3,597 191,309 104,596 63,026 12,814 5,153 5,112 445 163 489,352 284,385 71,337 67,547 43,030 21,576 1,415 53 8 14,562 3,404 2,958 3,468 2,944

41,278 14,748 9,230 6,762 5,340 2,594 1,396 764 392 39 13 101,799 36,404 29,020 17,154 15,708 2,951 563 32,646 18,521 10,307 2,312 782 611 77 37 84,373 51,035 12,471 9,481 7,322 4,041 12 9 3 2,473 667 530 484 427

249,595 89,035 55,902 41,063 32,380 15,568 8,391 4,575 2,372 229 77 614,287 220,515 174,127 103,363 95,005 17,828 3,449 197,386 111,638 62,798 13,888 4,727 3,637 474 224 510,353 309,235 75,283 57,212 44,107 24,382 68 51 16 15,009 4,064 3,204 2,903 2,607

-3.7 -0.9 -7.2 -9.7 -0.2 12.1 -1.2 -6.3 -22.3 -71.6 6.9 -5.8 7.1 -25.9 3.4 0.1 46.8 -15.3 -7.3 -3.8 -11.1 -1.9 -18.4 -35.2 -4.7 24.1 -6.2 -2.3 -4.8 -23.6 -7.4 2.0 -95.2 -14.0 76.7 -7.7 6.6 -2.4 -24.2 -21.2

9.2 3.3 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 22.6 8.1 6.4 3.8 3.5 0.7 0.1 7.3 4.1 2.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 18.7 11.3 2.8 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

27,715 9,709 6,179 4,556 3,670 1,918 891 494 268 20 9 69,198 23,948 20,386 12,071 10,072 2,257 464 21,700 13,144 5,858 1,553 688 420 11 26 57,303 34,618 8,393 6,511 5,024 2,735 12 8 1 1,511 388 333 328 240

165,795 57,910 37,041 27,434 22,061 11,391 5,274 2,911 1,611 109 53 412,879 143,639 120,755 71,952 60,164 13,536 2,833 129,730 78,408 35,302 9,200 4,141 2,459 65 154 343,049 207,735 50,101 38,852 29,927 16,310 68 47 8 9,056 2,340 1,984 1,936 1,448

30,614 10,163 7,819 4,825 3,976 1,916 951 620 276 56 12 63,830 21,189 19,376 10,595 11,013 1,325 332 20,180 10,594 7,144 1,559 249 584 20 30 62,899 40,310 9,147 6,970 3,570 2,791 106 3 1 1,789 409 418 384 340

185,387 61,576 47,347 29,208 24,077 11,613 5,726 3,754 1,671 340 75 386,247 128,047 117,436 64,121 66,659 7,977 2,007 122,037 63,975 43,281 9,431 1,505 3,544 120 181 381,000 244,163 55,385 42,271 21,612 16,898 645 18 8 10,835 2,483 2,532 2,317 2,061

10.5 4.7 26.6 5.9 8.3 -0.1 6.7 25.4 3.0 180.6 40.5 -7.8 -11.5 -5.0 -12.2 9.3 -41.3 -28.4 -7.0 -19.4 21.9 0.4 -63.8 39.0 83.3 15.3 9.8 16.4 9.0 7.1 -28.9 2.0 752.1 -64.9 6.3 18.4 5.5 25.6 17.0 42.0

Share (Per cent) 13 9.7 3.2 2.5 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 20.2 6.7 6.1 3.4 3.5 0.4 0.1 6.4 3.4 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 19.9 12.8 2.9 2.2 1.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Contd...

Economic Survey 2014-15

2012-13 (US$ (` crore) million)

A100

Table 7.4 (A) : Direction of Imports : Imports by Regions and Countries (Contd...)

Table 7.4 (A) : Direction of Imports : Imports by Regions and Countries (Contd...) REGIONS/COUNTRIES 2012-13 (US$ (` crore) million) 1

Change 2013-14 (4) over (US$ (` crore) (2) (Per million) cent)

Share (Per cent)

April-Nov. 2013-14 (US$ (` crore) million)

April-Nov. Change 2014-15 (P) (10) over (US$ (` crore) (8) (Per million) cent)

Share (Per cent)

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;101

5) AFGHANISTAN TIS 6) BHUTAN 7) MALDIVES V CIS & Baltics (a) CARs Countries 1) KAZAKHSTAN 2) UZBEKISTAN 3) TURKMENISTAN 4) TAJIKISTAN 5) KYRGHYZSTAN (b) Other CIS Countries 1) RUSSIA 2) UKRAINE 3) AZERBAIJAN 4) BELARUS 5) GEORGIA 6) ARMENIA 7) MOLDOVA

160 164 6 7,880 195 140 32 8 13 2 7,685 4,232 2,657 521 215 58 1 1

861 892 34 42,891 1,063 763 173 45 70 11 41,828 23,021 14,471 2,848 1,162 314 8 4

209 152 4 7,723 703 656 32 14 1 1 7,020 3,894 1,805 1,137 158 24 2 1

1,288 919 24 46,694 4,267 3,978 192 87 5 4 42,427 23,570 10,896 6,857 947 144 10 3

30.8 -7.2 -36.9 -2.0 260.5 368.8 -1.1 69.3 -93.3 -69.4 -8.7 -8.0 -32.1 118.0 -26.5 -58.6 14.9 -24.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

122 98 2 4,782 302 273 19 9 1 1 4,480 2,515 1,167 676 111 12 0 0

752 582 14 28,489 1,777 1,601 116 54 3 3 26,713 15,036 6,952 3,996 655 69 2 2

145 90 3 5,653 687 652 22 11 1 0 4,966 3,059 1,563 191 139 14 1 1

881 546 16 34,186 4,169 3,959 134 66 7 2 30,017 18,496 9,446 1,139 843 84 3 6

18.4 -7.2 9.5 18.2 127.3 138.7 15.3 25.8 119.2 -30.2 10.9 21.6 34.0 -71.8 25.4 18.7 44.4 264.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

VI Unspecified Region

1,992

10,837

4,184

25,258

110.0

0.9

1,218

7,074

5,095

30,866

318.2

1.6

490,737 2,669,162

450,200

2,715,434

-8.3

100.0

302,327 1,801,893

315,663

1,911,267

4.4

100.0

Total Imports

Source: Department of Commerce based on DGCI&S data. P : Provisional.

Economic Survey 2014-15

A101

REGIONS/COUNTRIES

Change 2013-14 (4) over (US$ (` crore) (2) (Per million) cent)

Share (Per cent)

April-Nov. 2013-14 (US$ (` crore) million)

April-Nov. Change 2014-15 (P) (10) over (US$ (` crore) (8) (Per million) cent)

Share (Per cent)

A—102

I Europe 56,050 (a) EU Countries (27) 50,469 1) U K 8,649 2) NETHERLAND 10,566 3) GERMANY 7,253 4) BELGIUM 5,507 5) ITALY 4,373 6) FRANCE 4,987 7) SPAIN 2,866 8) POLAND 811 9) DENMARK 707 10) SWEDEN 686 11) PORTUGAL 528 12) FINLAND 317 13) IRELAND 387 14) CZECH REPUBLIC 251 15) HUNGARY 324 16) AUSTRIA 329 17) GREECE 300 18) ROMANIA 283 19) SLOVENIA 274 20) MALTA 398 21) BULGARIA 157 22) LITHUANIA 147 23) SLOVAK REP 107 24) LATVIA 104 25) ESTONIA 92 26) CYPRUS 55 27) LUXEMBOURG 8 (b) European Free Trade Associatipn (EFTA) 1,379 1) SWITZERLAND 1,118 2) NORWAY 235 3) ICELAND 26 4) LIECHTENSTEIN 0 (c) Other European Countries 4,202 1) TURKEY 3,964 2) CROATIA 134 3) UNION OF SERBIA & MONTENEGRO 71 4) ALBANIA 17 5) BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA 7 6) MACEDONIA 9

304,743 274,419 47,078 57,380 39,447 29,927 23,782 27,109 15,593 4,413 3,850 3,735 2,874 1,726 2,105 1,368 1,762 1,789 1,632 1,542 1,495 2,162 854 803 582 567 500 300 45 7,503 6,084 1,277 141 1 22,820 21,524 727

58,326 51,635 9,822 7,998 7,523 6,377 5,274 5,109 2,885 996 762 733 627 416 414 387 344 336 335 286 212 168 168 105 104 102 79 62 12 2,047 1,797 229 20 0 4,644 4,434 139

353,711 313,144 59,478 48,757 45,561 38,687 31,892 30,954 17,494 6,040 4,610 4,446 3,809 2,531 2,511 2,371 2,080 2,037 2,025 1,731 1,277 1,028 1,018 635 631 617 479 375 70 12,250 10,739 1,389 120 2 28,317 27,042 842

4.1 2.3 13.6 -24.3 3.7 15.8 20.6 2.4 0.7 22.8 7.7 6.9 18.7 31.0 7.0 54.0 6.1 2.4 11.7 1.1 -22.5 -57.8 7.1 -28.8 -2.4 -1.9 -13.9 12.0 43.2 48 60.7 -2.4 -23.3 18.5 10.5 12 3.9

18.6 16.4 3.1 2.5 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 1 0.0

37,498 33,333 6,254 5,467 4,792 4,078 3,337 3,369 1,803 608 495 456 386 295 252 266 229 221 214 192 137 69 121 62 69 62 53 38 8 1,507 1,350 144 14 0 2,658 2,541 75

225,011 200,034 37,423 33,111 28,686 24,474 19,933 20,203 10,811 3,644 2,964 2,729 2,320 1,784 1,508 1,620 1,373 1,322 1,278 1,146 814 414 728 370 415 370 318 229 49 8,926 7,983 860 82 0 16,050 15,351 447

37,994 33,273 6,292 4,322 5,045 3,740 3,558 3,197 2,059 706 482 487 440 244 519 272 240 247 244 328 156 237 150 71 91 67 41 34 6 846 674 159 13 0 3,876 3,728 109

230,000 201,419 38,080 26,171 30,517 22,624 21,544 19,350 12,461 4,267 2,913 2,946 2,660 1,478 3,171 1,646 1,452 1,495 1,473 2,000 945 1,449 910 427 549 404 248 206 34 5,115 4,075 961 78 1 23,465 22,567 665

1.3 -0.2 0.6 -21.0 5.3 -8.3 6.6 -5.1 14.2 16.1 -2.8 6.9 13.8 -17.3 106.0 2.6 4.7 11.9 13.7 71.2 13.8 244.9 23.9 13.9 31.0 7.6 -23.0 -10.5 -33.0 -43.9 -50.1 10.7 -6.1 85.7 45.8 46.7 45.6

17.9 15.7 3.0 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8 0.1

387 95 38 50

30 19 12 11

182 115 70 65

-57.5 7.2 67.4 18.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

17 12 6 7

99 73 38 41

5 13 12 8

28 81 73 51

-72.2 11.4 88.9 21.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Contd...

Economic Survey 2014-15

2012-13 (US$ (` crore) million)

A102

Table 7.4 (B) : Direction of Exports : Exports by Regions and Countries

Table 7.4 (B) : Direction of Exports : Exports by Regions and Countries (Contd...) REGIONS/COUNTRIES

2012-13 (US$ (` crore) million) 2 3

A—103

31,226 5,395 5,074 212 54 31 23 2,329 1,257 536 377 158 6,993 2,668 831 764 444 426 299 260 254 210 203 109 103 101 86 85 58 53 19 17 1 1 0 1,092 531 221 181

189,782 32,757 30,770 1,330 332 189 137 14,186 7,679 3,266 2,283 958 42,441 16,181 5,045 4,636 2,721 2,580 1,814 1,570 1,546 1,275 1,237 659 624 601 525 516 351 321 117 105 9 6 0 6,623 3,217 1,343 1,099

7.1 2.2 -0.6 273.8 5.7 69.9 -51.7 23.5 25.6 9.7 55.2 3.2 7.2 -2.6 11.7 59.5 48.0 -13.0 -24.5 3.5 99.7 5.6 -1.3 38.3 19.9 -45.2 53.6 53.2 38.7 -2.9 74.8 -19.1 50.5 1.1 0.0 17.3 14.1 44.2 23.2

7 9.9 1.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

April-Nov. 2013-14 (US$ (` crore) million) 8 9 20,033 3,656 3,404 182 36 17 17 1,497 807 343 244 103 4,742 1,688 594 621 329 289 214 191 137 135 130 74 66 68 62 46 39 38 7 13 1 1 0 689 352 121 115

120,628 22,015 20,450 1,139 219 104 103 9,043 4,894 2,073 1,460 616 28,529 10,129 3,575 3,752 2,011 1,729 1,286 1,148 821 812 784 445 393 397 376 274 234 232 45 78 4 3 0 4,132 2,111 723 688

April-Nov. Change 2014-15 (P) (10) over (US$ (` crore) (8) (Per million) cent) 10 11 12 23,300 4,150 4,010 63 35 24 19 2,387 1,609 401 248 129 4,867 1,932 425 390 515 341 202 158 143 152 192 95 78 45 57 50 40 30 7 10 3 1 0 806 360 149 148

141,027 25,141 24,290 382 210 142 116 14,465 9,752 2,428 1,503 783 29,487 11,699 2,577 2,368 3,120 2,067 1,223 960 870 921 1,163 574 474 273 346 301 241 178 40 62 20 8 0 4,883 2,178 899 897

16.3 13.5 17.8 -65.3 -3.7 35.4 10.8 59.5 99.4 16.9 1.6 25.8 2.6 14.4 -28.4 -37.1 56.5 18.2 -5.6 -17.2 4.7 12.1 47.6 27.7 19.2 -33.5 -8.0 8.0 1.7 -22.7 -10.1 -20.2 377.5 135.8 0.0 17.0 2.3 23.2 28.8

Share (Per cent) 13 11.0 2.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 Contd...

A103

158,605 28,753 27,803 309 280 100 261 10,261 5,445 2,660 1,322 834 35,502 14,917 4,050 2,605 1,628 2,673 2,154 1,365 693 1,083 1,120 428 468 1,003 305 302 228 295 59 116 5 5 0 5,068 2,532 834 804

Share (Per cent)

Economic Survey 2014-15

II Africa 29,143 (a) Southern African Customs Union (SACU) 5,281 1) SOUTH AFRICA 5,107 2) NAMIBIA 57 3) BOTSWANA 51 4) LESOTHO 18 5) SWAZILAND 47 (b) Other South African Countries 1,886 1) MOZAMBIQUE 1,001 2) ANGOLA 489 3) ZAMBIA 243 4) ZIMBABWE 153 (c) West Africa 6,523 1) NIGERIA 2,740 2) GHANA 744 3) BENIN 479 4) TOGO 300 5) SENEGAL 490 6) COTE D’ IVOIRE 396 7) CAMEROON 251 8) LIBERIA 127 9) CONGO P REP 199 10) GUINEA 206 11) MALI 79 12) BURKINA FASO 86 13) SIERRA LEONE 184 14) NIGER 56 15) GAMBIA 56 16) MAURITANIA 42 17) GABON 54 18) GUINEA BISSAU 11 19) EQUTL GUINEA 21 20) CAPE VERDE IS 1 21) SAO TOME 1 22) ST HELENA 0 (d) Central Africa 931 1) UGANDA 465 2) MALAWI 153 3) CONGO D. REP. 147

Change 2013-14 (4) over (US$ (` crore) (2) (Per million) cent) 4 5 6

REGIONS/COUNTRIES

A—104

78 46 33 8 8,839 3,770 2,152 1,311 749 412 154 182 49 39 21 5,682 2,897 1,089 755 427 215 299 0 53,344 39,826 36,161 1,628 2,037 13,518 6,049 912 690 638 540 264 2,670 225 226 234

424 252 177 46 48,135 20,526 11,733 7,137 4,082 2,238 839 992 266 211 113 30,886 15,714 5,935 4,116 2,321 1,171 1,630 0 290,225 216,716 196,771 8,862 11,082 73,509 32,872 4,966 3,759 3,472 2,941 1,434 14,500 1,222 1,233 1,277

Change 2013-14 (4) over (US$ (` crore) (2) (Per million) cent) 4 5 6 88 33 31 8 9,975 3,882 3,401 1,000 817 307 239 211 52 53 14 5,442 2,562 1,070 863 386 287 274 0 54,215 43,423 39,158 2,228 2,037 10,792 5,552 1,008 664 621 611 290 228 212 211 197

531 202 186 46 60,827 23,596 20,907 6,077 4,950 1,844 1,456 1,287 318 309 82 32,948 15,561 6,450 5,213 2,330 1,734 1,660 0 328,173 262,605 236,686 13,572 12,346 65,568 33,871 6,115 4,029 3,766 3,708 1,761 1,302 1,289 1,285 1,196

12.5 -28.9 -5.8 -8.5 12.9 3.0 58.0 -23.7 9.1 -25.5 54.6 15.7 7.2 35.6 -33.9 -4.2 -11.6 -1.8 14.3 -9.6 33.4 -8.3 0.0 1.6 9.0 8.3 36.8 0.0 -20.2 -8.2 10.5 -3.8 -2.7 13.2 10.2 -91.5 -5.5 -6.7 -15.9

Share (Per cent) 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 17.2 13.8 12.5 0.7 0.6 3.4 1.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

April-Nov. 2013-14 (US$ (` crore) million) 8 9 56 20 20 6 6,040 2,556 1,796 566 575 193 152 124 33 37 9 3,408 1,479 740 549 258 204 178 0 35,388 28,700 26,143 1,206 1,351 6,688 3,239 620 415 418 407 149 227 139 135 146

338 119 117 37 36,533 15,413 10,994 3,398 3,456 1,138 919 747 200 212 55 20,377 8,860 4,414 3,273 1,542 1,224 1,064 0 211,881 171,655 156,288 7,265 8,103 40,226 19,581 3,723 2,489 2,512 2,445 891 1,295 838 815 879

April-Nov. Change 2014-15 (P) (10) over (US$ (` crore) (8) (Per million) cent) 10 11 12 102 22 21 5 7,153 3,090 2,049 881 516 199 118 232 33 23 12 3,937 2,119 740 572 222 117 167 0 41,178 32,361 29,041 1,843 1,476 8,817 5,066 729 366 524 313 156 186 150 191 186

618 134 125 32 43,257 18,687 12,378 5,329 3,125 1,206 711 1,407 200 140 74 23,794 12,803 4,476 3,458 1,339 707 1,012 0 249,221 195,882 175,768 11,174 8,939 53,339 30,636 4,415 2,218 3,174 1,890 943 1,109 909 1,156 1,129

81.2 12.3 5.2 -14.2 18.4 20.9 14.1 55.7 -10.3 3.1 -22.6 88.2 -0.5 -37.6 33.3 15.5 43.3 0.1 4.1 -14.2 -42.8 -5.7 0.0 16.4 12.8 11.1 52.9 9.3 31.8 56.4 17.6 -11.7 25.4 -23.2 4.8 -17.9 7.8 41.2 27.5

Share (Per cent) 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 19.4 15.3 13.7 0.9 0.7 4.2 2.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Contd...

Economic Survey 2014-15

1 4) RWANDA 5) CHAD 6) BURUNDI 7) CAFRI REP (e) East Africa 1) KENYA 2) TANZANIA REP 3) MAURITIUS 4) ETHIOPIA 5) DJIBOUTI 6) MADAGASCAR 7) SOMALIA 8) REUNION 9) SEYCHELLES 10) COMOROS (f) North Africa 1) EGYPT A RP 2) ALGERIA 3) SUDAN 4) MOROCCO 5) LIBYA 6) TUNISIA 7) CANARY IS III America (a) North America 1) U S A 2) MEXICO 3) CANADA (b) Latin America 1) BRAZIL 2) COLOMBIA 3) CHILE 4) PERU 5) ARGENTINA 6) ECUADOR 7) BAHAMAS 8) GUATEMALA 9) PANAMA REPUBLIC 10) VENEZUELA

2012-13 (US$ (` crore) million) 2 3

A104

Table 7.4 (B) : Direction of Exports : Exports by Regions and Countries (Contd...)

Table 7.4 (B) : Direction of Exports : Exports by Regions and Countries (Contd...) REGIONS/COUNTRIES

A—105

URUGUAY DOMINIC REP HONDURAS TRINIDAD PARAGUAY COSTA RICA NETHERLANDANTIL EL SALVADOR NICARAGUA HAITI BOLIVIA FR GUIANA JAMAICA CUBA GUYANA SURINAME BELIZE MARTINIQUE GUADELOUPE BARBADOS VIRGIN IS US CAYMAN IS BERMUDA DOMINICA ST LUCIA ANTIGUA ST VINCENT GRENADA ST KITT N A BR VIRGN IS TURKS C IS MONTSERRAT FALKLAND IS

143 109 110 82 83 74 60 56 59 64 57 3 30 36 22 30 24 6 7 6 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 152,699 2,733 2,349 302 41 30

161 126 108 105 89 81 69 65 59 59 53 37 36 36 24 24 22 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 155,426 2,683 2,300 277 49 44

781 593 600 444 451 405 327 305 323 347 312 18 162 195 119 165 128 32 36 32 8 2 7 13 6 7 2 5 3 3 2 0 0 830,914 14,887 12,794 1,647 223 162

975 765 655 630 539 492 416 394 361 358 320 219 219 215 147 146 134 47 39 39 24 19 16 15 14 13 11 9 7 2 2 0 0 942,046 16,284 13,958 1,680 295 268

12.4 15.5 -1.9 28.6 7.2 9.2 14.4 16.1 -0.1 -7.0 -7.3 1011.5 22.0 -0.8 10.3 -20.3 -4.7 30.6 -0.8 9.7 172.7 707.7 91.9 0.4 121.4 61.0 425.7 71.8 93.7 -29.1 28.1 75.0 0 1.8 -1.8 -2.1 -8.4 18.8 47.7

Share (Per cent) 7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.4 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0

April-Nov. 2013-14 (US$ (` crore) million) 8 9

April-Nov. Change 2014-15 (P) (10) over (US$ (` crore) (8) (Per million) cent) 10 11 12

105 80 73 70 54 52 50 44 39 39 36 36 23 25 15 10 17 4 4 5 2 0 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 101,268 1,767 1,517 176 35 30

155 91 113 70 60 64 28 42 42 51 49 59 24 26 15 11 17 4 3 7 3 6 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 104,702 2,128 1,824 220 37 38

630 481 438 413 324 313 304 262 236 234 212 215 140 148 92 60 101 26 25 30 13 2 9 10 7 6 10 6 5 2 2 0 0 607,368 10,621 9,120 1,056 209 185

940 552 686 425 363 387 168 252 256 310 298 362 146 155 92 69 105 26 17 41 20 37 13 8 8 6 4 6 5 2 1 0 0 633,717 12,865 11,028 1,331 225 228

48.2 14.1 55.7 1.0 10.8 22.5 -44.9 -4.9 8.5 31.1 38.0 63.5 2.4 3.2 -1.6 12.8 1.6 -2.5 -32.5 37.9 61.4 1674.3 35.7 -17.3 14.5 -1.9 -63.3 1.0 -10.7 13.8 -56.3 0.0 0.0 3.4 20.4 20.2 25.1 7.1 23.7

Share (Per cent) 13 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.4 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 Contd...

A105

Asia (Oceania) AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND FIJI IS PAPUA N GNA

Change 2013-14 (4) over (US$ (` crore) (2) (Per million) cent) 4 5 6

Economic Survey 2014-15

11) 12) 13) 14) 15) 16) 17) 18) 19) 20) 21) 22) 23) 24) 25) 26) 27) 28) 29) 30) 31) 32) 33) 34) 35) 36) 37) 38) 39) 40) 41) 42) 43) IV Asia (a) East 1) 2) 3) 4)

2012-13 (US$ (` crore) million) 2 3

REGIONS/COUNTRIES

A—106

5) SAMOA 6) VANUATU REP 7) TIMOR LESTE 8) SOLOMON IS 9) TONGA 10) KIRIBATI REP 11) NAURU RP 12) TUVALU (b) ASEAN 1) SINGAPORE 2) VIETNAM SOC REP 3) INDONESIA 4) MALAYSIA 5) THAILAND 6) PHILIPPINES 7) MYANMAR 8) CAMBODIA 9) LAO PD RP 10) BRUNEI (c) West Asia- GCC 1) U ARAB EMTS 2) SAUDI ARAB 3) OMAN 4) KUWAIT 5) QATAR 6) BAHARAIN IS (d) Other West Asia 1) IRAN 2) ISRAEL 3) JORDAN 4) YEMEN REPUBLC 5) IRAQ 6) LEBANON 7) SYRIA (e) NE Asia 1) CHINA P RP 2) HONG KONG 3) JAPAN 4) KOREA RP

2 3 2 2 2 0 0 0.01 33,008 13,619 3,967 5,331 4,444 3,733 1,187 545 112 29 40 51,054 36,317 9,786 2,599 1,061 687 603 11,357 3,351 3,740 1,001 1,477 1,278 251 259 39,437 13,580 12,279 6,101 4,206

11 19 12 8 9 2 0 0 179,420 73,995 21,563 28,996 24,144 20,310 6,465 2,961 610 157 218 278,000 197,832 53,245 14,115 5,778 3,746 3,284 61,825 18,256 20,349 5,453 8,024 6,973 1,365 1,406 214,571 73,773 66,898 33,221 22,889

Change 2013-14 (4) over (US$ (` crore) (2) (Per million) cent) 4 5 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 33,134 12,511 5,442 4,850 4,198 3,703 1,419 787 141 50 32 48,221 30,520 12,219 2,812 1,061 969 639 13,067 4,972 3,747 1,596 1,307 918 294 234 40,816 14,867 12,732 6,814 4,209

26 17 13 12 6 6 1 0 200,183 74,969 33,253 29,340 25,414 22,431 8,610 4,806 858 305 196 291,908 184,779 73,864 17,156 6,435 5,911 3,763 79,241 30,060 22,757 9,827 7,886 5,525 1,776 1,409 248,095 90,819 77,241 41,256 25,475

113.9 -19.0 1.9 35.5 -38.1 154.1 0.0 500.0 0.4 -8.1 37.2 -9.0 -5.5 -0.8 19.5 44.5 25.9 72.6 -18.9 -5.5 -16.0 24.9 8.2 0.0 41.0 5.9 15.1 48.4 0.2 59.5 -11.5 -28.2 17.2 -9.5 3.5 9.5 3.7 11.7 0.1

Share (Per cent) 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5 4.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.3 9.7 3.9 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 4.2 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 13.0 4.7 4.0 2.2 1.3

April-Nov. 2013-14 (US$ (` crore) million) 8 9 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 22,646 9,395 3,340 3,265 2,789 2,408 933 397 77 22 20 31,879 19,978 8,301 2,024 642 434 500 8,417 3,213 2,585 971 709 616 184 140 26,031 8,982 8,462 4,545 2,651

15 11 11 6 3 4 1 0 135,369 55,715 20,269 19,540 16,703 14,429 5,607 2,395 459 130 122 190,942 119,620 49,691 12,287 3,847 2,596 2,902 50,498 19,181 15,585 5,954 4,201 3,654 1,095 827 156,710 54,434 50,844 27,233 15,853

April-Nov. Change 2014-15 (P) (10) over (US$ (` crore) (8) (Per million) cent) 10 11 12 2 1 2 2 1 1 0 0 21,056 6,716 4,255 2,914 3,340 2,249 939 484 88 41 30 34,749 22,623 8,708 1,591 774 723 330 7,797 2,753 2,360 1,166 737 453 194 134 25,651 7,972 9,292 3,701 3,251

13 8 15 9 4 4 0 0 127,470 40,636 25,812 17,622 20,199 13,624 5,683 2,931 534 249 180 210,263 136,915 52,661 9,633 4,683 4,370 2,002 47,162 16,656 14,275 7,051 4,454 2,741 1,173 812 155,326 48,290 56,298 22,371 19,658

-16.8 -30.3 32.0 42.6 17.9 -7.4 -88.2 0.0 -7.0 -28.5 27.4 -10.8 19.8 -6.6 0.7 21.8 14.6 90.1 45.8 9.0 13.2 4.9 -21.4 20.5 66.6 -34.1 -7.4 -14.3 -8.7 20.1 3.9 -26.4 5.6 -3.9 -1.5 -11.2 9.8 -18.6 22.6

Share (Per cent) 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9 3.2 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.4 10.7 4.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 3.7 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 12.1 3.8 4.4 1.7 1.5 Contd...

Economic Survey 2014-15

2012-13 (US$ (` crore) million) 2 3

A106

Table 7.4 (B) : Direction of Exports : Exports by Regions and Countries (Contd...)

7.4 (B) : Direction of Exports : Exports by Regions and Countries (Contd...) REGIONS/COUNTRIES

A—107

Total Exports

3,044 203 24 1 15,111 5,145 3,984 3,089 2,065 473 233 122 3,683 551 286 125 70 35 35 3,132 2,296 520 87 124 40 55 9 5,482

Change 2013-14 (4) over (US$ (` crore) (2) (Per million) cent) 4 5 6

Share (Per cent) 7

16,555 1,100 130 5 82,212 27,983 21,688 16,806 11,233 2,569 1,267 666 20,046 3,001 1,559 680 380 191 190 17,046 12,493 2,833 475 675 220 301 49 29,785

1,990 187 16 2 17,504 6,167 4,534 3,592 2,274 474 356 106 3,492 538 262 114 74 54 35 2,954 2,121 481 124 91 72 53 10 11,658

12,061 1,143 90 10 106,335 37,411 27,644 21,770 13,833 2,879 2,155 643 21,149 3,256 1,580 692 448 327 208 17,893 12,829 2,932 747 555 442 325 64 69,774

-34.6 -7.9 -34.4 68.8 15.8 19.9 13.8 16.3 10.1 0.4 52.5 -13.3 -5.2 -2.4 -8.6 -8.7 5.3 54.4 -1.3 -5.7 -7.6 -7.5 42.1 -26.5 79.0 -3.5 17.1 112.7

0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.6 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7

300,401 1,634,318

314,405

1,905,011

4.7

100.0

Source: Department of Commerce based on DGCI&S data. P: Provisional

April-Nov. 2013-14 (US$ (` crore) million) 8 9 1,231 146 13 1 10,528 3,667 2,791 2,233 1,238 314 218 67 2,230 328 175 68 31 29 25 1,903 1,371 318 79 54 41 33 6 9,020

April-Nov. Change 2014-15 (P) (10) over (US$ (` crore) (8) (Per million) cent) 10 11 12

Share (Per cent) 13

7,373 888 77 8 63,227 21,965 16,878 13,367 7,423 1,890 1,305 399 13,353 1,956 1,046 410 183 169 147 11,397 8,194 1,924 469 327 247 198 38 53,546

1,379 50 6 1 13,321 4,105 4,363 3,060 1,232 292 170 100 2,273 395 159 116 60 36 25 1,878 1,397 252 71 59 59 34 6 2,416

8,366 305 35 3 80,632 24,839 26,431 18,510 7,452 1,765 1,031 604 13,755 2,391 961 702 363 215 151 11,364 8,451 1,524 431 359 357 206 36 14,657

12.0 -65.4 -56.3 -58.9 26.5 11.9 56.3 37.0 -0.5 -7.2 -21.9 49.5 1.9 20.6 -9.3 69.7 94.5 23.6 1.1 -1.3 1.9 -20.9 -9.8 8.8 43.8 4.2 -7.5 -73.2

0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 1.9 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1

205,437 1,231,787

210,071

1,282,377

2.3

100.0

Economic Survey 2014-15

5) TAIWAN 6) KOREA DP RP 7) MONGOLIA 8) MACAO (f) South Asia 1) BANGLADESH PR 2) SRI LANKA DSR 3) NEPAL 4) PAKISTAN IR 5) AFGHANISTAN TIS 6) BHUTAN 7) MALDIVES V CIS & Baltics (a) CARs Countries 1) KAZAKHSTAN 2) UZBEKISTAN 3) TURKMENISTAN 4) TAJIKISTAN 5) KYRGHYZSTAN (b) Other CIS Countries 1) RUSSIA 2) UKRAINE 3) AZERBAIJAN 4) GEORGIA 5) ARMENIA 6) BELARUS 7) MOLDOVA VI Unspecified Region

2012-13 (US$ (` crore) million) 2 3

A107

A108

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 7.5 : India’s Share in World Exports by Commodity Divisions and Groups (US $ million)

Div. C o d e Commodity Sl. Group Division/Group No.

01 03 04 042 05 06 07 071 074 075 08 12 121 122 22 28 281 51 52 53 54 55

541

58 59 61 611 612 613 65 652 653 654 66 67 69 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 84

667

1970 World

Meat and meat preparations Fish, crustaceans and molluscs & preparations Cereals and cereal preparations Rice Vegetables and fruits Sugar, sugar preparations and honey Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices and manufactures Coffee and coffee substitutes Tea and mate Spices Feeding stuff for animals Tobacco and tobacco manufactures Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse Manufactured tobacco Oilseeds and oleaginous fruit Metalliferous ores and metal scrap Iron ore and concentrates Organic chemicals Inorganic chemicals Dyeing, tanning and colouring materials Medicinal and pharmaceutical products Essential oils and perfume materials soap, cleansing etc. Artificial resins, plastic materials, cellulose esters & ethers Chemical materials and products n.e.s. Leather, leather manufactures & dressed fur skins Leather Manufactures of leather or of composition leather Fur skins,tanned or dressed etc. Textile yarn, fabrics, made-up articles Woven cotton fabrics Woven fabrics of man made fibres Woven fabrics other than of cotton or man-made fibres Pearls, precious and semi-precious stones Iron and steel Manufactures of metals n.e.s. Power-generating machinery & equipment Machinery specialized for particular industries Metal-working machinery General industrial machinery & equipment & machine parts thereof Office machinery and ADP equipment Telecommunication and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances Road vehicles (including air cushion vehicles) Other transport equipment Articles of apparel and clothing accessories Total Exports

1975

India

India’s share (%)

World

India

India’s share (%) 9

3584 … 6775 925 1471 2700 5437 3205 587 255 … 1713 1058 655 … 7357 2373 6648 … 1615 2687 916

4 … 9 6 17 26 280 31 196 52 … 43 42 1 … 193 158 9 … 8 11 10

0.1 … 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.0 5.1 1.0 33.4 20.5 … 2.5 4.0 0.2 … 2.6 6.7 0.1 … 0.5 0.4 1.1

7378 … 25133 1984 10104 11663 9133 4580 933 548 … 3827 2357 1470 … 13446 4601 20219 … 3642 6503 3059

9 … 16 12 154 554 438 73 292 73 … 124 119 5 … 253 247 22 … 23 29 18

0.1 … 0.1 0.6 1.5 4.8 4.8 1.6 31.3 13.3 … 3.2 5.0 0.4 … 1.9 5.4 0.1 … 0.6 0.4 0.6

…

… 1047 701 132 214 11371 1436 3967 270

… 95 94 1 … 461 98 189 2

… 9.1 13.4 0.6 … 4.1 6.8 4.8 0.8

… 2380 1540 355 486 23798 3149 8038 547

… 200 189 4 8 599 161 191 5

… 8.4 12.3 1.0 1.6 2.5 5.1 2.4 0.9

2431 14540 4328 20884 10670 … … … … … … … … … … 109

53 132 27 25 17 … … … … … … … … … … …

2.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.2 … … … … … … … … … … …

5707 40789 12053 54327 67016 … … … … … … … … … … 308

128 116 74 97 102 … … … … … … … … … … …

2.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.2 … … … … … … … … … … …

313804

2031

0.6

876094

4665

0.5 Contd…

A—108

Economic Survey 2014-15

A109

Table 7.5 : India’s Share in World Exports by Commodity Divisions and Groups (Contd...) (US $ million)

Div. C o d e Commodity Sl. Group Division/Group No.

01 03 04 042 05 06 07 071 074 075 08 12 121 122 22 28 281 51 52 53 54 55

541

58 59 61 611 612 613 65 652 653 654 66 67 69 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 84

667

1980 World

India

India’s share (%)

17832 12258 41989 4355 24018 16183 22121 12979 1631 1072 10322 3423 3423 … 9487 30239 6515 31841 15491 7986 13918 7647

67 242 201 160 259 46 879 271 452 156 164 151 151 … 30 465 411 17 26 65 109 86

0.4 2.0 0.5 3.7 1.1 0.3 4.0 2.1 27.7 14.5 1.6 4.4 4.4 … 0.3 1.5 6.3 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.1

27223

15960 5967 3415 975 1577 48884 6632 9325 3188

1985 World

India

India’s share (%)

15755 14335 32643 2916 23606 10113 20779 11676 1973 1188 8515 7822 3798 4024 7896 23137 6154 36923 16318 8024 15920 8136

61 337 211 162 332 0 971 226 517 229 127 140 113 27 20 557 478 25 22 62 130 56

0.4 2.4 0.6 5.6 1.4 0.0 4.7 1.9 26.2 19.3 1.5 1.8 3.0 0.7 0.3 2.4 7.8 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.7

0.0

28456

0.0

8 405 342 62 1 1145 351 44 204

0.0 6.8 10.0 6.3 0.1 2.3 5.3 0.5 6.4

16613 6444 4185 1233 1026 48218 6804 9735 3462

28 534 331 202 0 1037 327 20 167

0.2 8.3 7.9 16.4 0.0 2.1 4.8 0.2 4.8

18563 68231 36840 35722 58495 15671

579 87 221 88 65 32

3.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2

12073 61891 32884 38433 54707 12696

1165 46 125 59 97 55

9.6 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4

59443 24750 26799

67 2 11

0.1 0.0 0.0

53954 53604 47318

60 30 4

0.1 0.1 0.0

60947 127347 41291 32365

114 208 32 590

0.2 0.2 0.1 1.8

75739 157446 50709 38718

121 126 27 887

0.2 0.1 0.1 2.3

1997686

8486

0.4 1930849

8904

0.5 Contd…

A—109

A110

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 7.5 : India’s Share in World Exports by Commodity Divisions and Groups (Contd...) (US $ million)

Div. C o d e Commodity Sl. Group Division/Group No.

01 03 04 042 05 06 07 071 074 075 08 12 121 122 22 28 281 51 52 53 54 55

541

58 59 61 611 612 613 65 652 653 654 66 67 69 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 84

667

1990 World

India

India’s share (%)

34118 32847 45314 3995 50225 14236 21131 8659 2650 1415 15603 17860 5187 12674 10477 35734 7653 70721 26079 19952 37753 21027

77 521 285 254 400 21 842 148 585 109 336 145 107 39 83 753 578 232 59 233 453 240

0.2 1.6 0.6 6.4 0.8 0.1 4.0 1.7 22.1 7.7 2.2 0.8 2.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 7.6 0.3 0.2 1.2 1.2 1.1

65712

33418 13226 9295 2868 1063 105147 15559 22021 8466

2000 World

India

India’s share (%)

44690 50875 53575 6411 68355 13866 27953 11559 3087 2541 20295 21628 5525 16103 14388 49515 9229 134109 33117 34105 107482 44279

324 1391 783 654 856 118 956 264 431 261 469 147 147 0 244 510 363 1491 99 481 1255 216

0.7 2.7 1.5 10.2 1.3 0.9 3.4 2.3 14.0 10.3 2.3 0.7 2.7 0.0 1.7 1.0 3.9 1.1 0.3 1.4 1.2 0.5

0.0

123353

174

0.1

76 832 447 385 0 2180 571 156 195

0.2 6.3 4.8 13.4 0.0 2.1 3.7 0.7 2.3

63411 24440 16551 6831 1058 167528 22387 32151 9432

437 808 388 421 0 6000 1103 506 370

0.7 3.3 2.3 6.2 0.0 3.6 4.9 1.6 3.9

27577 106342 66088 81675 118617 31051

2710 283 341 126 236 58

9.8 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2

54105 146147 125259 158329 167582 41413

6477 1481 1167 218 346 117

12.0 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.3

130836 126743

132 112

0.1 0.1

225981 378980

78 0

0.0 0.0

100965

0.0

299356

0.0

185364 312550 96250 94577

241 344 15 2211

0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3

640575 549596 157654 201379

92 370 53 7093

0.0 0.1 0.0 3.5

3303563

18143

0.5 6254511

41543

0.7 Contd…

A—110

Economic Survey 2014-15

A111

Table 7.5 : India’s Share in World Exports by Commodity Divisions and Groups (Contd...) (US $ million)

Div. Sl. No.

Code Group

01 03 04 042 05 06 07 071 074 075 08 12 121 122 22 28 281

541

58 59 61 611 612 613 65 652 653 654 66 67 69 71 72 73 74

667

75 76 77 78 79 84

Source :

Meat and meat preparations 135400 Fish, crustaceans and molluscs & preparations 120500 Cereals and cereal preparations 124400 Rice 23900 Vegetables and fruits 204900 Sugar, sugar preparations and honey 54700 Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices and manufactures 99600 Coffee and coffee substitutes 40000 Tea and mate 8200 Spices 7800 Feeding stuff for animals 74800 Tobacco and tobacco manufactures 41100 Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse 12300 Manufactured tobacco 28800 Oilseeds and oleaginous fruit 78800 Metalliferous ores and metal scrap 342500 Iron ore and concentrates 125600 Organic chemicals 403500 Inorganic chemicals 105300 Dyeing, tanning and colouring materials 76200 Medicinal and pharmaceutical products 161700 Essential oils and perfume materials 143100 soap, cleansing etc. Artificial resins, plastic materials, 124300 cellulose esters & ethers Chemical materials and products n.e.s. 202600 Leather, leather manufactures & dressed fur skins 29900 Leather 23800 Manufactures of leather or of composition leather 3800 Fur skins,tanned or dressed etc. 2300 Textile yarn, fabrics, made-up articles 290700 Woven cotton fabrics 31200 Woven fabrics of man made fibres 42600 Woven fabrics other than of cotton or 10600 man-made fibres Pearls, precious and semi-precious stones 150500 Iron and steel 478300 Manufactures of metals n.e.s. 364400 Power-generating machinery & equipment 390600 Machinery specialized for particular industries 430300 Metal-working machinery 93200 General industrial machinery & equipment & machine parts thereof 634200 Office machinery and ADP equipment 598800 Telecommunication and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment 691000 Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances 1358000 Road vehicles (including air cushion vehicles) 1273700 Other transport equipment 360800 Articles of apparel and clothing accessories 431200 Total Exports

Note :

2012 World

51 52 53 54 55

Commodity Division/Group

18068177

2013

India

India’s share (%)

World

India

India’s share (%) 27

3153 3362 9132 6128 2670 2248 3074 902 722 1396 2639 923 700 224 1528 3820 2425 11564 1398 2020 1871 2091

2.3 2.8 7.3 25.6 1.3 4.1 3.1 2.3 8.8 17.9 3.5 2.2 5.7 0.8 1.9 1.1 1.9 2.9 1.3 2.7 1.2 1.5

135408 120498 124121 24403 208641 55178 98678 39224 8173 7724 75172 40625 12073 28552 78999 343657 126667 400825 104467 76118 176250 142697

4775 4728 11405 8170 3559 1239 3101 864 859 1295 3698 1081 843 238 1419 3034 1635 12171 1008 2600 2330 2072

3.5 3.9 9.2 33.5 1.7 2.2 3.1 2.2 10.5 16.8 4.9 2.7 7.0 0.8 1.8 0.9 1.3 3.0 1.0 3.4 1.3 1.5

1221

1.0

124200

1343

1.1

2824 1228 1072 156 0.3 15274 1626 1829 337

1.4 4.1 4.5 4.1 0.0 5.3 5.2 4.3 3.2

201500 29740 23719 3768 2253 290760 31088 42879 10574

3549 1573 1345 229 0.2 18907 1837 2126 341

1.8 5.3 5.7 6.1 0.0 6.5 5.9 5.0 3.2

22748 10885 6777 2816 3465 508

15.1 2.3 1.9 0.7 0.8 0.5

154827 477186 363993 390221 430206 93337

30208 12725 7430 3511 3931 560

19.5 2.7 2.0 0.9 0.9 0.6

5171 713

0.8 0.1

633719 597698

6292 638

1.0 0.1

4294

0.6

684414

4154

0.6

0.4 1348737 0.9 1273937 1.7 363216 3.2 431192

6227 12871 7916 16843

0.5 1.0 2.2 3.9

1.6 18459279 314656

1.7

5330 11420 6012 13833 296827

Various issues of United Nations’ International Trade Statistics Year Book, and for the years 2012 and 2013 data accessed on 30th December 2014 from http://comtrade.un.org/ A zero in India’s share means negligible or no share at all.

A—111

A112

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 7.6 : Index Numbers of Foreign Trade (Base : 1999-2000=100) Unit Value Index

Quantum Index

Terms of Trade

Ye a r Exports 1

Imports

Exports

Imports

Gross

Net

Income

2000-01

102

109

125

117

2001-02

103

112

126

103

116

2002-03

106

128

150

109

124

2003-04

114

132

161

128

139

2004-05

131

157

179

150

149

2005-06

139

179

206

174

160

2006-07

158

206

227

191

174

2007-08

166

210

245

218

194

2008-09

194

239

267

262

217

2009-10

196

215

264

288

109

241

2010-11

223

243

304

311

102

279

2011-12

268

425

331

246

209

2012-13

284

459

357

261

221

2013-14

312

518

378

233

228

Source : DGCI&S, Kolkata. Note: (i) Net terms of trade (NTT), i.e., the ratio of overall export unit value index to similar Import index . (ii) Gross terms of trade, i .e ., the ratio of overall import quantum index to similar export index. (iii) Income terms of trade = (NTT x QIE)/100 (iv) QIE = Quantum Index of Exports.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;112

Economic Survey 2014-15

A113

Table 8.1(A): Overall External Assistance (` crore) Year

Loans

Grants

Total

(2+3)

1985-86

5337.0

313.4

5650.4

1986-87

5730.0

429.5

6159.5

1987-88

8203.1

1062.2

9265.3

1988-89

12855.6

214.2

13069.8

1989-90

10105.8

720.2

10826.0

1990-91

7601.3

522.1

8123.4

1991-92

11805.8

901.8

12707.6

1992-93

13082.1

1011.7

14093.8

1993-94

11618.8

2415.1

14033.9

1994-95

12384.3

1075.8

13460.1

1995-96

10833.2

1330.0

12163.2

1996-97

14208.8

2932.6

17141.4

1997-98

14865.0

2101.0

16966.0

1998-99

8320.8

209.8

8530.6

1999-2000

17703.7

2615.3

20319.0

2000-01

17184.1

940.6

18124.7

2001-02

21630.0

3465.0

25095.0

2002-03

19875.7

1296.1

21171.8

2003-04

14754.4

2350.7

17105.1

2004-05

22746.1

3071.1

25817.2

2005-06

17309.1

1628.8

18937.9

2006-07

28271.0

3518.9

31789.9

2007-08

28988.4

4294.4

33282.8

2008-09

28283.4

1242.5

29525.9

2009-10

48968.8

957.6

49926.4

2010-11

35895.1

1536.5

37431.6

2011-12

59035.3

1095.5

60130.8

2012-13

66891.6

1889.0

68780.6

2013-14

54372.6

140.2

54512.8

2014-15P

20748.8

42.2

20790.9

1985-86

2493.1

442.9

2936.0

1986-87

3175.7

429.3

3605.0

1987-88

4574.4

477.5

5051.9

1988-89

4738.6

565.8

5304.4

1989-90

5137.8

664.7

5802.5

1 A. Authorization

B. Utilization

1990-91

6170.0

534.3

6704.3

1991-92

10695.9

919.1

11615.0

1992-93

10102.2

879.6

10981.8

1993-94

10895.4

885.6

11781.0

1994-95

9964.5

916.0

10880.5

1995-96

9958.6

1063.6

11022.2

1996-97

10892.9

1085.6

11978.5

1997-98

10823.4

921.3

11744.7

1998-99

12343.4

895.5

13238.9

1999-2000

13330.7

1073.9

14404.6 Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;113

A114

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 8.1(A): Overall External Assistance (Contd...) (` crore)

Ye a r 1

Loans

Grants

Total

(2+3)

2000-01

13527.1

727.2

14254.3

2001-02

16111.7

1447.6

17559.3

2002-03

13898.3

1835.8

15734.1

2003-04

15271.0

2073.4

17344.4

2004-05

14660.9

2490.7

17151.6

2005-06

16097.8

2790.6

18888.4

2006-07

16890.6

2528.4

19419.0

2007-08

17177.7

2673.7

19851.4

2008-09

24089.9

2803.8

26893.7

2009-10

27617.8

3121.2

30739.0

2010-11

35116.1

2789.5

37905.6

2011-12

29349.4

2926.2

32275.6

2012-13

25494.1

2373.6

27867.7

2013-14

31772.4

3412.6

35185.0

2014-15(P)

22780.1

993.9

23774.0

Source : Aid Accounts and Audit Division, Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance. P : Provisional (Up to 12.01.2015) Notes : 1. Figures of authorization have been arrived at by applying the average exchange rate of the rupee with individual donor currencies. 2. Figures of utilization are at current rates applicable on the date of transaction. 3. Figures of authorization and utilization include loans and grants on both Government and Non-Government accounts. 4. Totals may not tally due to rounding off.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;114

Economic Survey 2014-15

A115

Table 8.1(B) : Overall External Assistance (US$ million)

Year

Loans

Grants

Total

(2+3)

1985-86

4362.1

256.2

4618.3

1986-87

4484.2

336.1

4820.3

1987-88

6326.7

819.2

7145.9

1988-89

8877.0

147.9

9024.9

1989-90

6069.9

432.6

6502.5

1990-91

4236.4

291.0

4527.4

1991-92

4766.0

364.1

5130.1

1992-93

4275.7

330.7

4606.4

1993-94

3717.5

772.7

4490.2

1994-95

3958.2

343.8

4302.0

1995-96

3249.8

399.0

3648.8

1996-97

4000.4

825.6

4826.0

1997-98

4006.8

566.3

4573.1

1 A. Authorization

1998-99

1979.2

49.9

2029.1

1999-2000

4091.4

604.4

4695.8

2000-01

3769.3

206.3

3975.6

2001-02

4438.7

711.1

5149.8

2002-03

4183.5

244.4

4427.9

2003-04

3300.8

525.9

3826.7

2004-05

5212.2

703.7

5915.9

2005-06

3912.2

368.1

4280.4

2006-07

6209.8

773.0

6982.8

2007-08

7182.2

1064.0

8246.1

2008-09

6183.2

271.6

6454.9

2009-10

10318.0

201.8

10519.8

2010-11

7881.0

337.4

8218.3

2011-12

12343.4

229.1

12572.5

2012-13

12301.0

347.4

12648.3

2013-14

9003.7

23.2

9027.0

2014-15(P)

3413.5

6.9

3420.4

1985-86

2037.7

362.0

2399.7

1986-87

2485.3

336.0

2821.3

1987-88

3528.0

368.2

3896.2

1988-89

3272.1

390.7

3662.8

1989-90

3086.0

399.2

3485.2

1990-91

3438.7

297.8

3736.5

1991-92

4317.9

371.0

4688.9

1992-93

3301.8

287.5

3589.3

1993-94

3486.0

283.4

3769.4

1994-95

3184.8

292.7

3477.5

1995-96

2987.4

319.1

3306.4

1996-97

3066.8

305.6

3372.4

1997-98

2917.4

248.3

3165.7

1998-99

2936.0

213.0

3149.0

1999-00

3080.8

248.2

3329.0

B. Utilization

Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;115

A116

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 8.1(B) : Overall External Assistance (Contd...) (US$ million)

Year

Loans

Grants

Total

(2+3)

2000-01

2967.2

159.5

3126.7

2001-02

3306.3

297.1

3603.4

2002-03

2946.6

386.6

3333.2

2003-04

3416.3

463.8

3880.1

2004-05

3359.5

570.7

3930.2

2005-06

3607.0

625.3

4232.3

2006-07

3918.0

586.5

4265.5

2007-08

4280.5

666.3

4946.8

2008-09

4769.3

555.1

5324.4

2009-10

6130.5

692.8

6823.3

2010-11

7866.5

624.9

8491.4

2011-12

6060.2

590.1

6650.3

2012-13

4715.1

439.0

5154.1

2013-14

5282.9

567.4

5850.3

2014-15(P)

3619.5

157.9

3777.4

Source : Aid Accounts and Audit Division, Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance. P : Provisional (Up to 12.01.2015) Notes : 1. Figures in this table are converted from the preceding Table 8.1(A) based on the respective Rupee-US dollar rate. 2. Totals may not tally due to rounding off.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;116

Economic Survey 2014-15

A117

Table 8.2(A) : Authorization of External Assistance by Source (` crore) Source and type of assistance 1 Consortium Members (a) Loans (b) Grants Total Country-wise Distribution (i) Austria Loans (ii) Belgium (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (iii) Canada (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (iv) Denmark Grants (v) France Loans (vi) Germany (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (vii) Italy Loans (viii) Japan (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (ix) Netherlands (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (x) Sweden Grants (xi) U.K. Grants (xii) U.S.A. (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (xiii) I.B.R.D. (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (xiv) I.D.A. (a) Loans (b) Grants Total II. Russia Fed. & East European Countries Loans Country-wise Distribution (i) Russia Fed. Loans

2000-01

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

11918.5 923.0 12841.5

19953.6 6.2 19959.8

43501.0 868.8 44369.8

...

... ... ...

... 20.6 20.6

... ... ...

15.6

...

2013-14 2 0 1 4-15 (P)

28729.8 46401.4 59893.3 1185.1 230.2 813.0 29914.8 46631.7 60706.3

35842.3 93.3 35935.6

15800.6 33.7 15834.3

...

... ... ...

...

823.1

769.8

1645.2

...

187.7 5.5 193.2

762.3 ... 762.3

2069.2 60.4 2129.6

1504.0 12.0 1516.0

2960.7 ... 2960.7

3240.2 38.5 3278.7

1215.7 ... 1215.7

1005.6 6.0 1011.6

...

784.1 2.2 786.3

10445.3 ... 10445.3

11151.4 7.5 11158.9

2557.4 16186.2 23049.8 41.9 ... ... 2599.3 16186.2 23049.8

18818.6 90.3 18909.0

648.9

... 6.5 6.5

... ... ...

...

474.7

...

379.2

905.3

160.2

764.2

...

... 0.8 0.8

... ... ...

... 156.6 156.6

... ... ...

6816.8 391.7 7208.5

3247.7 3.6 3251.3

27684.3 421.7 28106.0

8237.1 15250.5 60.6 70.1 8297.7 15320.6

2619.5 10.3 2629.8

2361.2 3.0 2364.2

3647.1 27.7 3674.8

4129.9 5.4 4135.3

5498.4 2.6 5500.9

2596.2 ... 2596.2

16431.2 11180.9 8.7 ... 16439.9 11180.9

7374.7 ... 7374.7

11801.8 ... 11801.8

10499.0 ... 10499.0

...

... 22839.3

...

22839.3 ... 22839.3

...

648.9

Contd...

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;117

A118

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 8.2(A) : Authorization of External Assistance by Source (Contd...) (` crore)

Source and type of assistance 1

2000-01

2008-09

2009-10

8329.8 1236.3 9566.1

5467.8 88.8 5556.6

...

1147.5

...

137.2

III. O t h e r s (a) Loans 5265.6 (b) Grants 17.6 Total 5283.2 (i) Switzerland Grants ... (ii) European Economic Community Grants ... (iii) O.P.E.C. Fund Loans ... (iv) Saudi Arabia Fund for Development Loans ... (v) Kuwait Fund for Arabic Economic Development Grants ... (vi) IFAD (International Fund for Agricultural Development) (a) Loans ... (b) Grants ... Total ... (vii) IMF Trust Fund Loans ... (viii) International Sugar Org. Loans ... (ix) ADB (a) Loans 5265.6 (b) Grants ... Total 5265.6 (x) Spain (a) Loans ... (b) Grants ... Total ... (xi) Norway (a) Loans ... (b) Grants ... Total ... (xii) Australia (a) Loans ... (b) Grants ... Total ... ( x i i i ) Other International Institutions a Grants ... Grand Total 18124.7 (a) Loans 17184.1 (b) Grants 940.6

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 5

2013-14 2014-15(P)

7165.3 12633.9 351.5 865.2 7516.8 13499.1

6998.3 1076.0 8074.3

18530.1 46.8 18576.9

4948.2 8.5 4956.7

...

4.3

...

559.9

...

276.9 2.6 279.5

197.9 4.9 202.8

87.9 ... 87.9

426.5 ... 426.5

... ... ...

400.1 ... 400.1

89.6 ... 89.6

...

7915.7 ... 7945.7

5269.9 ... 5269.9

7077.5 12207.4 ... ... 7077.5 12207.4

6998.3 ... 6998.3

18130.0 ... 18130.0

4858.6 ... 4858.6

... ... ...

86.1 29525.9 28283.4 1242.5

83.8 49926.3 48968.8 957.5

347.2 865.2 516.2 37431.6 60130.8 68780.6 35895.1 59035.3 66891.6 1536.5 1095.5 1889.0

46.8 54512.8 54372.6 140.2

8.5 20790.9 20748.8 42.2

Source: Aid Accounts and Audit Division, Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance. ... : Nil or Negligible P : Provisional (Upto 12.01.2015) a : Other International Institutions include UNDP, UNFPA, Global Fund, IDF(WB), UN-FAO and UPU (Universal Postal Union). Notes : 1. Figures of authorization of external assistance include agreements signed on Government and Non-Government accounts. 2. Totals may not tally due to rounding off.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;118

Economic Survey 2014-15

A119

Table 8.2(B) : Authorization of External Assistance by Source (US$ million) Source and type of assistance 1 I. Consortium Members (a) Loans (b) Grants Total Country-wise Distribution (i) Austria Loans (ii) Belgium (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (iii) Canada (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (iv) Denmark Grants (v) France Loans (vi) Germany (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (vii) Italy Loans (viii) Japan (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (ix) Netherlands (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (x) Sweden Grants (xi) U.K. Grants (xii) U.S.A. (a) Loans (b) Grants Total ( x i i i ) I.B.R.D. (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (xiv) I.D.A. (a) Loans (b) Grants Total II. Russia Fed. & East European Countries Loans Country-wise Distribution (i) Russia Fed. Loans

2000-01

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

2614.3 202.5 2816.8

4362.2 1.4 4363.6

9165.9 183.1 9349.0

6307.8 260.2 6568.0

...

... ... ...

... 20.6 20.6

... ... ...

15.6

...

2013-14 2014-15(P)

9701.8 11014.0 48.1 149.5 9749.9 11163.5

5935.3 15.5 5950.7

2599.4 5.5 2605.0

...

... ... ...

...

172.1

141.6

272.4

187.7 5.5 193.2

166.7 ... 166.7

436.0 12.7 448.7

330.2 2.6 332.8

619.0 ... 619.0

595.9 7.1 602.9

201.3 ... 201.3

165.4 1.0 166.4

...

784.1 2.2 786.3

2283.5 ... 2283.5

2349.7 1.6 2351.2

561.5 9.2 570.7

3384.3 ... 3384.3

4238.7 ... 4238.7

3116.2 15.0 3131.2

106.8

... 6.5 6.5

... ... ...

1.6 ... 1.6

... ... ...

...

474.7

...

79.9

198.8

33.5

140.5

... 0.2 0.2

... ... ...

... 34.4 34.4

... ... ...

... ... ... ... ...

1495.3 85.9 1581.2

710.0 0.8 710.8

5833.2 88.9 5922.1

1808.5 13.3 1821.8

3188.7 14.7 3203.3

481.7 1.9 483.6

391.0 0.5 391.5

600.0 4.6 604.6

905.9 1.2 907.1

1202.0 0.6 1202.6

547.0 ... 547.0

3607.6 1.9 3609.5

2337.7 ... 2337.7

1356.2 ... 1356.2

1954.3 ... 1954.3

1727.2 ... 1727.2

...

4200.0

...

4200.0

...

106.8

Contd...

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;119

A120

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 8.2(B) : Authorization of External Assistance by Source (Contd...) (US$ million)

Source and type of assistance 1

2000-01

2008-09

2009-10

1821.0 270.3 2091.3

1152.1 18.7 1170.8

1573.2 77.2 1650.4

2641.6 180.9 2822.5

1286.9 197.9 1486.1

3068.5 7.8 3076.2

814.0 1.4 815.4

...

250.9

...

0.9

...

103.0

...

30.0

...

60.5 0.6 61.1

41.7 1.0 42.7

19.3 ... 19.3

89.2 ... 89.2

... ... ...

66.3 ... 66.3

14.7 ... 14.7

...

1730.5 ... 1730.5

1110.4 ... 1110.4

1553.9 ... 1553.9

2552.4 ... 2552.4

1286.9 ... 1286.9

3002.2 ... 3002.2

799.3 ... 799.3

... ... ...

18.8 6454.8 6183.2 271.6

17.7 10519.8 10318.0 201.8

76.2 180.9 94.9 8218.4 12572.4 12648.3 7881.0 12343.4 12301.0 337.4 229.1 347.4

7.8 9027.0 9003.7 23.2

1.4 3420.4 3413.5 6.9

III. Others (a) Loans 1155.0 (b) Grants 3.9 Total 1158.9 (i) Switzerland Grants ... (ii) European Economic Community Grants ... (iii) O.P.E.C. Fund Loans ... (iv) Saudi Arabia Fund for Development Loans ... (v) Kuwait Fund for Arabic Economic Development Grants ... (vi) IFAD (International Fund for Agricultural Development) (a) Loans ... (b) Grants ... Total ... (vii) IMF Trust Fund Loans ... (viii) International Sugar Org. Loans ... (ix) ADB (a) Loans 1155.0 (b) Grants ... Total 1155.0 (x) Spain (a) Loans ... (b) Grants ... Total ... (xi) Norway (a) Loans ... (b) Grants ... Total ... (xii) Australia (a) Loans ... (b) Grants ... Total ... ( x i i i ) Other International Institutions a Grants ... Grand Total 3975.6 (a) Loans 3769.3 (b) Grants 206.3

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

2013-14 2014-15(P)

Source: Aid Accounts and Audit Division, Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance. ... : Nil or Negligible P : Provisional (Upto 12.01.2015) a : Other International Institutions include UNDP, UNFPA, Global Fund, IDF(WB), UN-FAO and UPU (Universal Postal Union). Notes : 1. Figures in this table are converted from the preceding Table 8.2(A) based on the respective Rupee-US dollar rates. 2. Totals may not tally due to rounding off.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;120

Economic Survey 2014-15

A121

Table 8.3(A) : Utilization of External Assistance by Source Source and type of assistance 1 I. Consortium Members (a) Loans (b) Grants Total Country-wise Distribution (i) Austria (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (ii) B e l g i u m Loans (iii) Canada (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (iv) D e n m a r k (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (v) France (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (vi) G e r m a n y (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (vii) Italy Loans (viii) Japan (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (ix) Netherlands (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (x) S w e d e n (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (xi) U.K. (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (xii) U.S.A. (a) Loans (b) Grants Total ( x i i i )I.B.R.D. (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (xiv) I.D.A. (a) Loans (b) Grants Total

(` crore) 2000-01 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15(P) 2

11168.6 16845.3 21001.5 27286.3 22821.8 18417.1 25172.9 634.0 1883.8 1819.5 2018.5 1916.7 1560.1 1043.4 11802.6 18729.1 22821.0 29304.8 24738.5 19977.3 26216.3

16289.1 660.0 16949.0

... ... ...

...

... 2.9 2.9

... ... ...

... 49.5 49.5

... ... ...

65.2 ... 65.2

22.8 ... 22.8

... ... ...

16.0 ... 16.0

921.7 ... 921.7

213.6 ... 213.6

318.9 67.8 386.7

844.5 98.6 943.1

486.4 78.0 564.4

1076.9 276.2 1353.1

2043.1 99.4 2142.5

1379.9 62.1 1442.0

3122.0 65.6 3187.6

498.9 24.8 523.7

...

1.9

...

2714.0 15.8 2729.8

5861.5 ... 5861.5

6553.4 2.6 6556.0

6582.2 1.5 6583.7

8474.8 43.5 8518.3

7260.0 ... 7260.0

8750.5 4.4 8754.9

5019.3 0.0 5019.3

... 70.3 70.3

... ... ...

... 307.3 307.3

... 1710.0 1710.0

... 1707.4 1707.4

... 1682.2 1682.2

... 1689.4 1689.4

... 1293.4 1293.4

... 855.0 855.0

... 557.5 557.5

... 81.1 81.1

... 57.2 57.2

... 14.2 14.2

... 30.6 30.6

... 55.1 55.1

... 23.6 23.6

... 43.4 43.4

... ... ...

3222.4 24.5 3246.9

4076.0 5.7 4081.7

7472.1 14533.4 11.8 24.1 7483.8 14557.5

4861.9 27.2 4889.0

4894.8 180.6 5075.4

5631.6 73.8 5705.3

4369.7 71.7 4441.4

4848.1 14.8 4862.9

5164.1 12.3 5176.4

5566.6 5.6 5572.2

7406.1 2.2 7408.2

4840.1 0.5 4840.6

6738.9 1.2 6740.1

6180.9 6.0 6186.9

4873.3 3.9 4877.2

Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;121

A122

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 8.3(A) : Utilization of External Assistance by Source (Contd...)

Source and type of assistance 1

(` crore) 2000-01 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15(P) 2

(xv) IFAD (International Fund for Agricultural Development) (a) Loans 40.1 38.5 64.4 99.1 142.6 140.7 210.3 (b) Grants ... 10.6 14.1 0.3 5.5 -0.8 3.5 Total 40.1 49.0 78.5 99.4 148.1 140.0 213.8 (xvi) IMF Trust Fund ... ... ... ... ... ... ... II. Russia Fed.& East European Countries Loans 130.1 874.5 923.0 220.5 35.9 26.4 8.2 Country-wise Distribution (i) Russia Federation Loans 130.1 874.5 923.0 220.5 35.9 26.4 8.2 (ii) Reps. of Czech & Slovak Loans ... ... ... ... ... ... ... III. Others (a) Loans 2228.5 7244.5 6616.2 7829.8 6527.6 7076.9 6599.5 (b) Grants 93.2 920.1 1301.7 771.0 1009.5 813.5 2369.3 Total 2321.7 8164.6 7918.0 8600.8 7537.1 7890.5 8968.7 Country-wise Distribution (i) Abu Dhabi Fund Loans ... ... ... ... ... ... ... (ii) Switzerland (a) Loans ... ... ... ... ... ... ... (b) Grants ... -0.5 ... ... ... ... ... Total ... -0.5 ... ... ... ... ... (iii) Other International Institutions a Grants 50.0 583.0 889.7 501.7 795.9 710.2 1741.7 (iv) European Economic Community Grants 36.3 239.6 316.0 269.0 208.1 104.0 622.4 (v) Oil Producing & Exporting Countries Loans 41.5 13.3 17.6 1.0 15.5 20.8 7.9 (vi) Saudi Arabia Fund for Development Loans ... ... ... ... ... ... ... (vii) Norway (a) Loans ... ... ... ... ... (b) Grants 6.9 ... ... ... ... ... ... Total 6.9 ... ... ... ... ... ... (viii) Spain Loans ... ... ... ... ... ... ... (ix) Kuwait Fund for Arabic Economic Development (a) Loans ... ... ... ... ... ... ... (b) Grants ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Total ... ... ... ... ... ... ... (x) ADB (a) Loans 2146.9 7192.8 6534.3 7729.8 6369.5 6915.4 6381.2 (b) Grants ... 87.4 81.9 ... ... ... ... Total 2146.9 7280.2 6616.2 7729.8 6369.5 6915.4 6381.2 (xi) Australia Loans ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Grand Total 14254.3 26893.7 30739.0 37905.6 32275.6 27867.7 35185.0 (a) Loans 13527.1 24089.9 27617.8 35116.1 29349.4 25494.1 31772.4 (b) Grants 727.2 2803.8 3121.2 2789.5 2926.2 2373.7 3412.6

167.6 167.6 ... 6.7

6.7 ... 6491.0 333.9 6824.9

... ... ... ... 333.3 ... 49.0 ...

... ... ...

... ... ... 6274.4 0.6 6275.0 ... 23774.0 22780.1 993.9

Source: Aid Accounts and Audit Division, Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance. ... : Nil or Negligible P : Provisional (Upto 12.01.2015) a : Other International Institutions include UNICEF, UNDP, ILO, WHO, UNFPA, UNESCO, UPU, WFP, Global Fund, IDF (WB), UN-FAO and Ford Foundation. Note: 1. Utilization figures are exclusive of suppliers’ credit and commercial borrowings. 2. Utilization of assistance is on Government and Non-Govt. accounts. 3. Authorization figures include agreement signed on Govt. and non-govt. accounts. 4. Totals may not tally due to rounding off.

A—122

Economic Survey 2014-15

A123

Table 8.3(B) : Utilization of External Assistance by Source Source and type of assistance 1 I. Consortium Members (a) Loans (b) Grants Total Country-wise Distribution (i) Austria (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (ii) B e l g i u m Loans (iii) Canada (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (iv) D e n m a r k (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (v) France (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (vi) G e r m a n y (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (vii) Italy Loans (viii) Japan (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (ix) Netherlands (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (x) S w e d e n (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (xi) U.K. (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (xii) U.S.A. (a) Loans (b) Grants Total ( x i i i )I.B.R.D. (a) Loans (b) Grants Total (xiv) I.D.A. (a) Loans (b) Grants Total

(US$ million) 2000-01 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15(P) 2

2449.8 139.1 2588.9

3335.1 373.0 3708.0

4661.8 403.9 5065.7

6112.5 452.2 6564.7

4689.6 383.6 5073.2

3406.2 288.5 3694.8

4185.6 173.5 4359.0

2588.2 104.9 2693.1

... ... ...

...

... 0.6 0.6

... ... ...

... 10.9 10.9

... ... ...

14.3 ... 14.3

4.5 ... 4.5

... ... ...

3.0 ... 3.0

153.3 ... 153.3

33.9 ... 33.9

70.0 14.9 84.9

167.2 19.5 186.7

108.0 17.3 125.3

241.2 61.9 303.1

411.0 21.2 432.2

255.2 11.5 266.7

519.1 10.9 530.0

79.3 3.9 83.0

...

0.4

...

595.3 3.5 598.8

1160.5 ... 1160.5

1454.7 0.6 1455.3

1474.5 0.3 1474.8

1744.9 8.8 1753.7

1342.7 ... 1342.7

1455.0 0.7 1455.7

797.5 ... 797.5

... 15.4 15.4

... ... ...

... 67.4 67.4

... 338.5 338.5

... 379.0 379.0

... 376.8 376.8

... 335.1 335.1

... 239.2 239.2

... 142.2 142.2

... 88.6 88.6

... 17.8 17.8

... 11.3 11.3

... 3.1 3.1

... 6.8 6.8

... 12.3 12.3

... 4.4 4.4

... 7.2 7.2

... ... ...

706.8 5.4 712.2

807.0 1.1 808.1

1658.6 2.6 1661.2

3255.7 5.4 3261.1

991.6 5.7 997.3

905.3 33.4 938.7

936.4 12.3 948.6

694.3 11.4 705.7

1063.4 3.2 1065.6

1022.4 2.4 1024.8

1235.6 1.3 1236.9

1091.7 0.9 1092.6

1534.7 0.5 1535.1

895.2 0.1 895.3

1120.5 0.2 1120.7

982.1 0.9 983.0 Contd....

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;123

A124

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 8.3(B) : Utilization of External Assistance by Source (Contd...)

Source and type of assistance 1

(US$ million) 2000-01 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15(P) 2

(xv) IFAD (International Fund for Agricultural Development) (a) Loans 8.8 (b) Grants ... Total 8.8 (xvi) IMF Trust Fund ... II. Russia Fed.& East European Countries Loans 28.5 Country-wise Distribution (i) Russia Federation Loans 28.5 (ii) Reps. of Czech & Slovak Loans ... III.O t h e r s (a) Loans 488.8 (b) Grants 20.4 Total 509.2 Country-wise Distribution (i) Abu Dhabi Fund Loans ... (ii) Switzerland (a) Loans ... (b) Grants ... Total ... (iii) Other International Institutions a Grants 11.0 (iv) European Economic Community Grants 8.0 (v) Oil Producing & Exporting Countries Loans 9.1 (vi) Saudi Arabia Fund for Development Loans ... (vii) Norway (a) Loans ... (b) Grants 1.5 Total 1.5 (viii) Spain Loans ... (ix) Kuwait Fund for Arabic Economic Development (a) Loans ... (b) Grants ... Total ... (x) ADB (a) Loans 470.9 (b) Grants ... Total 470.9 (xi) Australia Loans ... Grand Total 3126.7 (a) Loans 2967.2 (b) Grants 159.5

7.6 2.1 9.7 ...

14.3 3.1 17.4 ...

22.2 0.1 22.3 ...

30.6 1.2 31.8 ...

26.0 -0.1 25.9 ...

35.0 0.6 35.5 ...

26.6 ... 26.6 ...

173.1

204.9

49.4

7.4

4.9

1.4

1.1

173.1

204.9

49.4

7.4

4.9

1.4

1.1

...

1434.3 182.2 1616.4

1468.6 289.0 1757.6

1754.0 172.7 1926.7

1370.7 206.5 1577.2

1308.9 150.5 1459.3

1097.3 393.9 1491.2

1031.4 53.0 1084.4

...

... -0.1 -0.1

... ... ...

115.4

197.5

112.4

157.9

131.4

289.9

47.4

70.1

60.3

47.5

19.2

103.5

...

2.6

3.9

0.2

3.3

3.9

1.3

7.8

...

... ... ...

...

... ... ...

1424.0 17.3 1441.3

1450.4 18.2 1468.6

1731.6 ... 1731.6

1336.8 ... 1336.8

1279.0 ... 1279.0

1061.0 ... 1061.0

996.9 0.1 997.0

... 5324.4 4769.3 555.1

... 6823.3 6130.5 692.8

... 8491.4 7866.5 624.9

... 6650.3 6060.2 590.1

... 5154.1 4715.1 439.0

... 5850.3 5282.9 567.4

... 3777.4 3619.5 157.9

Source: Aid Accounts and Audit Division, Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance. ... : Nil or Negligible P : Provisional (Upto 12.01.2015) a : Other International Institutions include UNICEF, UNDP, ILO, WHO, UNFPA, UNESCO, UPU, WFP, Global Fund, IDF (WB), UN-FAO and Ford Foundation. Notes : 1. Figures in this table are converted from the preceding Table 8.3(A) based on the respective Rupee- US dollar rates. 2. Totals may not tally due to rounding off.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;124

Table 8.4 (A) : India’s External Debt Outstanding Sl.No. Components of External Debt 1 I.

A—125 II.

2007

2008

3 138,897 127,782 105,114 103,671 1,443 22,668 16,500 6,168 11,115 0 11,115 8,000 4,462 3,538 2,789 252 2,537 326 0 326 74,530 57,458 57,207 251 17,072 7,471 5,653 1,818 0 9,601 4,353 2,847 2,401 4,503 21,976 13,040 3,961 4,975

4 145,503 133,800 105,852 104,457 1,395 27,948 19,626 8,322 11,703 0 11,703 8,510 4,594 3,916 2,628 630 1,998 565 0 565 70,302 54,593 54,468 125 15,709 6,949 5,285 1,664 0 8,760 3,628 2,386 2,746 4,378 24,175 16,088 3,351 4,736

5 154,053 141,746 108,448 107,019 1,429 33,298 21,864 11,434 12,307 0 12,307 9,315 4,550 4,765 2,414 655 1,759 578 0 578 70,034 53,810 53,810 0 16,224 1,727 1,241 486 0 14,497 7,420 3,828 3,249 4,484 31,237 23,617 2,941 4,679

6 157,901 144,627 107,395 105,947 1,448 37,232 22,631 14,601 13,274 0 13,274 10,352 4,690 5,662 2,350 593 1,757 572 0 572 78,802 59,391 59,391 0 19,411 1,737 1,226 511 0 17,674 10,097 3,735 3,842 4,479 41,296 33,134 2,998 5,164

7 201,425 181,997 127,771 126,127 1,644 54,226 29,948 24,278 19,428 0 19,428 14,298 7,105 7,193 3,721 744 2,977 1,409 0 1,409 104,997 74,662 74,662 0 30,335 3,262 1,156 2,106 0 27,073 15,076 4,311 7,686 5,188 73,772 64,046 3,234 6,492

8 193,436 170,722 116,046 114,552 1,494 54,676 28,874 25,802 22,714 0 22,714 14,919 8,544 6,375 5,385 1,343 4,042 2,410 0 2,410 101,976 71,584 71,584 0 30,392 3,169 1,121 2,048 0 27,223 13,845 3,436 9,942 27,264 76,011 66,849 2,937 6,225

2011

2012

2013(PR)

9 216,672 190,326 120,653 119,068 1,585 69,673 39,218 30,455 26,346 0 26,346 15,802 9,193 6,609 7,511 1,899 5,612 3,033 0 3,033 114,904 80,406 80,406 0 34,498 4,101 1,621 2,480 0 30,397 13,789 3,754 12,854 28,163 83,112 73,273 2,847 6,992

10 257,089 222,579 138,691 136,816 1,875 83,888 45,328 38,560 34,510 0 34,510 19,407 11,092 8,315 10,290 2,707 7,583 4,813 0 4,813 137,086 91,641 91,641 0 45,445 7,648 4,963 2,685 0 37,797 14,200 3,886 19,711 31,528 97,117 85,896 3,252 7,969

11 279,351 235,670 143,130 141,119 2,011 92,540 48,239 44,301 43,681 0 43,681 23,414 12,750 10,664 14,370 2,973 11,397 5,897 0 5,897 136,412 88,006 88,006 0 48,406 8,436 5,916 2,520 0 39,970 13,010 4,206 22,754 32,439 96,690 84,766 4,271 7,653

12 321,184 268,491 163,589 161,165 2,424 104,902 53,433 51,469 52,693 0 52,693 28,104 14,411 13,693 18,461 3,820 14,641 6,128 0 6,128 148,581 96,918 96,918 0 51,663 10,319 7,764 2,555 0 41,344 13,330 4,356 23,658 36,910 93,412 80,207 4,777 8,428

13 328,692 272,244 162,558 160,107 2,451 109,686 54,945 54,741 56,448 0 56,448 29,938 15,439 14,499 20,441 3,307 17,134 6,069 0 6,069 143,852 93,092 93,092 0 50,760 9,728 7,406 2,322 0 41,032 12,269 3,873 24,890 36,340 94,905 81,632 5,178 8,095 Contd....

A125

2006

(` crore) End-Sep 2014(PR) 2014(QE)

Economic Survey 2014-15

III. IV.

2 MULTILATERAL A. Government Borrowing (i) Concessional a) IDA b) Others (ii) Non-concessional a) IBRD b) Others B. Non-Government Borrowing (i) Concessional (ii) Non-concessional a) Public Sector i) IBRD ii) Others b) Financial Institutions i) IBRD ii) Others c) Private Sector i) IBRD ii) Others BILATERAL A. Government borrowing (i) Concessional (ii) Non-concessional B. Non-Government borrowing (i) Concessional a) Public Sector b) Financial Institutions c) Private Sector (ii) Non-concessional a) Public Sector b) Financial Institutions c) Private Sector IMF EXPORT CREDIT a) Buyers’ credit b) Suppliers’ credit c) Export credit component of bilateral credit

2005

At End-March 2009 2010

Sl.No. Components of External Debt 1 V.

A—126

COMMERCIAL BORROWINGS a) Commercial bank loans a b) Securitized borrowings b c) Loans/securitized borrowings etc., with multilateral/bilateral guarantee + IFC(W) VI. NRI DEPOSITS c (Above one year maturity) VII. RUPEE DEBTd a) Defence b) Civilian VIII. TOTAL LONG TERM DEBT (I TO VII) IX. SHORT-TERM DEBT a) NRI deposits (up to one year maturity)c b) Trade-Related Credits 1) Above 6 Months 2) Upto 6 Months c) FII Investment in Govt. Treasury Bills and other instruments d) Investment in Treasury Bills by foreign central banks and other international institutions etc. e) External Debt Liabilities of: 1) Central Bank 2) Commercial banks X. GRAND TOTAL ( VIII+IX )

2006

2007

2008

2011

2012

2013(PR)

(` crore) End-Sep 2014(PR) 2014(QE)

115,533 62,896 48,992 3,645

117,991 73,508 41,112 3,371

180,669 107,145 68,020 5,504

249,243 160,577 82,641 6,025

318,209 219,925 91,286 6,998

319,221 202,350 113,177 3,694

448,448 261,678 183,504 3,266

614,623 373,194 238,849 2,580

762,472 454,672 306,056 1,744

889,370 585,688 301,789 1,893

994,175 605,994 386,132 2,049

143,267

161,834

179,786

174,623

210,118

217,062

230,812

299,840

385,202

624,101

669,433

10,071 8,887 1,184 508,777 77,528 0 71,173 32,922 38,251 6,355

9,184 8,112 1,072 533,367 87,155 0 86,531 38,788 47,743 624

8,508 7,533 975 628,771 122,631 0 113,256 52,188 61,068 1,732

8,065 7,172 893 714,409 182,881 0 167,540 91,502 76,038 2,603

7,760 6,935 825 921,469 220,656 0 203,345 118,936 84,409 10,522

7,480 6,709 771 942,450 236,188 0 214,267 126,391 87,876 15,153

7,147 6,416 731 1,129,258 290,149 0 261,006 157,806 103,200 24,214

6,922 6,220 702 1,444,205 399,962 0 333,202 200,454 132,748 48,066

6,838 6,164 674 1,699,404 525,931 0 472,026 321,010 151,016 29,671

712

620

534

467

225

326

447

0 0 0 586,305

0 0 0 620,522

6,931 2,185 4,746 751,402

12,118 4,458 7,660 897,290

6,255 3,892 2,363 1,142,125

6,301 3,139 3,162 1,178,638

4,704 693 4,011 1,419,407

18,368 871 17,497 1,844,167

23,787 985 22,802 2,225,335

8,826 8,944 8,179 8,325 647 619 2,122,384 2,276,341 538,364 532,227 0 0 493,357 504,069 330,500 331,013 162,857 173,056 18,979 970 572

784

25,456 26,404 892 899 24,564 25,505 2,660,748 2,808,568

Source : Ministry of Finance (Department of Economic Affairs), Ministry of Defence, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Securities & Exchange Board of India(SEBI). PR: Partially Revised; QE : Quick Estimates. IFC(W): International Finance Corporation, Washington D.C. FII: Foreign Institutional Investors a : Includes Financial Lease since 1996. b : Also includes India Development Bonds (IDBs), Resurgent India Bonds (RIBs), India Millennium Deposits (IMDs), also includes Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs) and net investment by 100% FII debt funds and securitized borrowings of commercial banks FCCB debt has been adjusted since end-March, 1998 after netting out conversion into equity and redemptions. c : Figures include accrued interest. d : Rupee denominated debt owed to Russia and payable through exports. Notes : NRO Deposits are included under NRI Deposits from the quarter ended June 2005. Supplier’s Credits upto 180 days and FII investment in short-term debt instruments are included under short-term debt from the quarter ended March 2005. Vostro balances / Nostro overdrafts of commercial banks, balances of foreign central banks/international institutions with RBI and investment in T-bills/securities by foreign central banks/ international institutions have been included in external debt from the quarter ended March 2007.

Economic Survey 2014-15

2005

At End-March 2009 2010

A126

Table 8.4 (A) : India’s External Debt Outstanding

Table 8.4 (B) : India’s External Debt Outstanding Sl.No. Components of External Debt 1 I.

A—127 II.

2007

2008

3 31,744 29,204 24,023 23,693 330 5,181 3,771 1,410 2,540 0 2,540 1,828 1,020 808 637 58 579 75 0 75 17,034 13,132 13,074 58 3,902 1,708 1,292 416 0 2,194 995 650 549 1,029 5,022 2,980 905 1,137

4 32,620 29,996 23,731 23,418 313 6,265 4,400 1,865 2,624 0 2,624 1,908 1,030 878 589 141 448 127 0 127 15,761 12,239 12,211 28 3,522 1,558 1,185 373 0 1,964 813 535 616 981 5,420 3,607 751 1,062

5 35,337 32,514 24,876 24,548 328 7,638 5,015 2,623 2,823 0 2,823 2,136 1,043 1,093 554 150 404 133 0 133 16,065 12,344 12,344 0 3,721 396 285 111 0 3,325 1,702 878 745 1,029 7,165 5,417 675 1,073

6 39,490 36,171 26,859 26,497 362 9,312 5,660 3,652 3,319 0 3,319 2,589 1,173 1,416 587 148 439 143 0 143 19,708 14,853 14,853 0 4,855 435 307 128 0 4,420 2,525 934 961 1,120 10,328 8,287 750 1,291

7 39,538 35,724 25,080 24,757 323 10,644 5,878 4,766 3,814 0 3,814 2,807 1,395 1,412 730 146 584 277 0 277 20,610 14,655 14,655 0 5,955 641 227 414 0 5,314 2,959 846 1,509 1,018 14,481 12,572 635 1,274

8 42,857 37,825 25,711 25,380 331 12,114 6,397 5,717 5,032 0 5,032 3,305 1,893 1,412 1,193 298 895 534 0 534 22,593 15,860 15,860 0 6,733 702 248 454 0 6,031 3,072 761 2,198 6,041 16,841 14,811 651 1,379

2011

2012

2013(PR)

9 48,475 42,579 26,992 26,637 355 15,587 8,774 6,813 5,896 0 5,896 3,536 2,057 1,479 1,681 425 1,256 679 0 679 25,712 17,988 17,988 0 7,724 918 363 555 0 6,806 3,087 840 2,879 6,308 18,647 16,437 646 1,564

10 50,452 43,686 27,221 26,853 368 16,465 8,897 7,568 6,766 0 6,766 3,808 2,177 1,631 2,017 531 1,486 941 0 941 26,884 17,987 17,987 0 8,897 1,501 974 527 0 7,396 2,781 762 3,853 6,163 18,990 16,790 636 1,564

11 51,597 43,539 26,443 26,071 372 17,096 8,912 8,184 8,058 0 8,058 4,324 2,355 1,969 2,650 549 2,101 1,084 0 1,084 25,174 16,259 16,259 0 8,915 1,558 1,093 465 0 7,357 2,397 776 4,184 5,964 17,784 15,585 785 1,414

12 53,356 44,598 27,173 26,770 403 17,425 8,876 8,549 8,758 0 8,758 4,669 2,394 2,275 3,069 635 2,434 1,020 0 1,020 24,689 16,099 16,099 0 8,590 1,714 1,290 424 0 6,876 2,216 724 3,936 6,149 15,541 13,346 795 1,400

13 53,356 44,193 26,388 25,990 398 17,805 8,919 8,886 9,163 0 9,163 4,860 2,506 2,354 3,318 537 2,781 985 0 985 23,351 15,112 15,112 0 8,239 1,579 1,202 377 0 6,660 1,992 628 4,040 5,898 15,403 13,249 840 1,314 Contd....

A127

2006

(US$ million) End-Sep 2014(PR) 2014(QE)

Economic Survey 2014-15

III. IV.

2005

At End-March 2009 2010

Sl.No. Components of External Debt 1 V.

2006

2007

2008

2011

2012

2013(PR)

(US$ million) End-Sep 2014(PR) 2014(QE)

A—128

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 COMMERCIAL BORROWINGS 26,405 26,452 41,443 62,334 62,461 70,726 100,476 120,136 140,188 147,982 161,365 a) Commercial bank loans a 14,375 16,479 24,577 40,159 43,169 44,832 58,643 72,946 83,596 97,453 98,354 11,197 9,217 15,603 20,668 17,918 25,075 41,100 46,686 56,271 50,214 62,678 b) Securitized borrowings b c) Loans/securitized borrowings etc., with 833 756 1,263 1,507 1,374 819 733 504 321 315 333 multilateral/bilateral guarantee + IFC(W) 32,743 36,282 41,240 43,672 41,554 47,890 51,682 58,608 70,822 103,845 108,724 VI. NRI DEPOSITS c (Above one year maturity) 2,302 2,059 1,951 2,017 1,523 1,658 1,601 1,354 1,258 1,468 1,452 VII. RUPEE DEBTd a) Defence 2,031 1,819 1,728 1,794 1,361 1,487 1,437 1,216 1,133 1,361 1,351 b) Civilian 271 240 223 223 162 171 164 138 125 107 101 VIII. TOTAL LONG TERM DEBT (I TO VII) 116,279 119,575 144,230 178,669 181,185 208,606 252,901 282,587 312,787 353,030 369,549 IX. SHORT-TERM DEBT 17,723 19,539 28,130 45,738 43,313 52,329 64,990 78,179 96,697 89,231 86,380 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 a) NRI deposits (up to one year maturity)c b) Trade-Related Credits 16,271 19,399 25,979 41,901 39,915 47,473 58,463 65,130 86,787 81,743 81,811 1) Above 6 Months 7,529 8,696 11,971 22,884 23,346 28,003 35,347 39,182 59,021 54,992 53,724 2) Upto 6 Months 8,742 10,703 14,008 19,017 16,569 19,470 23,116 25,948 27,766 26,751 28,087 c) FII Investment in Govt. Treasury Bills 1,452 140 397 651 2,065 3,357 5,424 9,395 5,455 3,158 157 and other instruments d) Investment in Treasury Bills by foreign 0 0 164 155 105 103 50 64 82 95 127 central banks and other international institutions etc. e) External Debt Liabilities of: 0 0 1,590 3,031 1,228 1,396 1,053 3,590 4,373 4,235 4,285 1) Central Bank 0 0 501 1,115 764 695 155 170 181 148 146 2) Commercial banks 0 0 1,089 1,916 464 701 898 3420 4,192 4,087 4,139 X. GRAND TOTAL (VIII+IX) 134,002 139,114 172,360 224,407 224,498 260,935 317,891 360,766 409,484 442,261 455,929 Memo Items : 41,107 39,559 39,567 44,164 41,899 43,931 47,499 48,063 45,518 46,454 44,531 Concessional Debte Concessional Debt to total external debt (per cent)30.7 28.4 23.0 19.7 18.7 16.8 14.9 13.3 11.1 10.5 9.8 Short-term debt 17,723 19,539 28,130 45,738 43,313 52,329 64,990 78,179 96,697 89,231 86,380 Short-term debt to total external debt (per cent) 13.2 14.0 16.3 20.4 19.3 20.1 20.4 21.7 23.6 20.2 18.9 Source : Ministry of Finance (Department of Economic Affairs), Ministry of Defence, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Securities & Exchange Board of India(SEBI). PR: Partially Revised; QE : Quick Estimates. IFC(W): International Finance Corporation, Washington D.C. FII: Foreign Institutional Investors a : Includes Financial Lease since 1996. b : Also includes India Development Bonds (IDBs), Resurgent India Bonds (RIBs), India Millennium Deposits (IMDs), also includes Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs) and net investment by 100% FII debt funds and securitized borrowings of commercial banks FCCB debt has been adjusted since end-March, 1998 after netting out conversion into equity and redemptions. c : Figures include accrued interest. d : Rupee denominated debt owed to Russia and payable through exports. e : The definition of concessional debt here includes ‘concessional’ categories under multilateral and bilateral debt and rupee debt under item VII. Note : NRO Deposits are included under NRI Deposits from the quarter ended June 2005. Supplier’s Credits upto 180 days and FII investment in short-term debt instruments are included under short-term debt from the quarter ended March 2005. Vostro balances / Nostro overdrafts of commercial banks, balances of foreign central banks/international institutions with RBI and investment in T-bills/securities by foreign central banks/ international institutions have been included in external debt from the quarter ended March 2007.

Economic Survey 2014-15

2005

At End-March 2009 2010

A128

Table 8.4 (B) : India’s External Debt Outstanding

Table 9.1 : Selected Indicators of Human Development for Major States Life expectancya at birth S l . State

2001-05 Male F e m a l e

Infant mortality rate (Per 1000 live births)

2009-13 Total

Male F e m a l e

2005 Total

Male F e m a l e

2013 Total

Male F e m a l e

Birth rate (Per 1000)

Death rate (Per 1000)

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

2005

2013

2005

2013

2005

2013

Total

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;129

Andhra Pradesh

62.8

67.5

65.0

65.5

70.4

67.9

19.1

17.4

7.3

2.0

1.8

Assam

58.4

60.3

59.2

61.9

65.1

63.3

25.0

22.4

8.7

7.8

2.9

2.3

Bihar

64.2

64.1

64.2

67.3

68.0

67.7

30.4

27.6

8.1

6.6

4.3

3.4

Gujarat

63.7

67.8

65.7

66.0

70.5

68.2

23.7

20.8

7.1

6.5

2.8

2.3

Haryana

65.0

68.2

66.5

65.8

70.9

68.2

24.3

21.3

6.7

6.3

2.8

2.2

Himachal Pradesh

67.4

71.8

69.5

69.0

73.1

71.0

20.0

16.0

6.9

6.7

2.2

1.7

Jammu & Kashmir

67.1

69.9

68.4

70.6

74.0

72.0

18.9

17.5

5.5

5.3

2.4

1.9

Karnataka

63.9

68.5

66.1

66.4

70.8

68.5

20.6

18.3

7.1

7.0

2.2

1.9

Kerala

70.5

76.7

73.6

71.8

77.8

74.8

15.0

14.7

6.4

6.9

1.7

1.8

1 0 Madhya Pradesh

58.9

60.5

59.7

62.5

65.5

63.8

29.4

26.3

9.0

8.0

3.6

2.9

1 1 Maharashtra

66.3

69.7

68.0

69.4

73.4

71.3

19.0

16.5

6.7

6.2

2.2

1.8

1 2 Odisha

59.6

62.1

60.8

63.8

65.9

64.8

22.3

19.6

9.5

8.4

2.6

2.1

1 3 Punjab

67.5

70.2

68.8

69.1

73.4

71.1

18.1

15.7

6.7

2.1

1.7

1 4 Rajasthan

63.0

66.0

64.5

65.4

70.0

67.5

28.6

25.6

7.0

6.5

3.7

2.8

1 5 Tamil Nadu

65.7

67.2

68.2

72.3

70.2

16.5

15.6

7.4

7.3

1.7

1 6 Uttar Pradesh

60.6

61.1

60.8

62.5

65.2

63.8

30.4

27.2

8.7

7.7

4.2

3.1

1 7 West Bengal

65.7

68.9

67.2

68.5

71.6

69.9

18.8

16.0

6.4

2.1

1.6

63.1

65.6

64.3

65.8

69.3

67.5

23.8

21.4

7.6

7.0

2.9

2.3

India

Source : Sample Registration System and SRS Statistical Report, Office of the Registrar General of India, Ministry of Home Affairs.

Economic Survey 2014-15

A129

A130

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 9.2 : Gross Enrolment Ratio in Classes I-V, VI-VIII and I-VIII A. All Categories of Students

S l . State/Union Territories No.

Classes I-V (6-10 years Boys Girls Total 3

Classes VI-VIII (11-13 years) Classes I-VIII (6-13 years) Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total

Andhra Pradesh

Arunachal Pradesh

Assam

79.9

83.2

81.5

64.3

67.1

65.7

74.2

77.3

75.7

Bihar

100.1

97.7

99.0

66.4

63.8

65.2

88.9

86.6

87.8

Chhattisgarh

115.9

112.4

114.1

90.8

86.4

88.6

106.5

102.6

104.6

Goa

117.7

114.1

115.9

115.8

109.3

112.7

116.9

112.3

114.7

Gujarat

110.1

110.8

110.4

80.7

75.2

78.2

98.9

97.2

98.1

Haryana

Himachal Pradesh

Jammu & Kashmir

88.1

Jharkhand

116.2

Karnataka

103.8

101.4

Kerala

87.4

Madhya Pradesh

121.6

Maharashtra

102.5

101.6

102.1

93.5

90.9

92.3

99.0

97.5

98.3

Manipur

130.9

135.8

133.3

82.9

87.3

85.0

112.7

117.3

114.9

Meghalaya

128.9

134.4

131.6

77.9

89.5

83.6

110.2

117.9

114.0

Mizoram

124.9

117.6

121.3

95.3

90.5

92.9

114.0

107.7

110.9

Nagaland

91.1

91.0

60.2

62.4

61.3

79.3

80.2

79.7

92.2

93.6

92.8

76.5

78.5

77.5

86.1

87.7

86.9

136.3

130.8

133.6

86.0

83.0

84.5

117.6

112.9

115.3

85.9

93.9

89.5

76.7

83.6

79.8

82.4

90.0

85.8

101.2

102.6

101.8

103.1

101.7

102.4

101.9

102.2

102.1

91.2

89.6

79.5

77.8

78.7

85.0

86.2

85.6

118.3

117.2

76.9

78.1

77.5

102.2

104.1

103.1

102.6

91.1

90.2

91.1

99.2

97.1

98.2

87.2

87.3

97.8

95.2

96.5

91.4

90.4

90.9

127.1

124.3

93.3

97.8

95.5

111.2

116.3

113.7

Odisha

107.6

105.8

106.7

75.2

73.3

74.3

95.2

93.2

94.2

Punjab

106.7

106.6

92.8

91.9

92.4

101.3

101.0

101.2

Rajasthan

104.6

103.8

104.2

80.7

73.2

77.2

95.8

92.5

94.3

Sikkim

132.0

90.3

106.7

98.4

115.3

121.9

118.6

Tamil Nadu

114.8

116.7

115.7

104.9

105.9

105.4

110.9

112.5

111.7

Tripura

115.3

115.9

115.6

102.2

102.5

102.4

110.3

110.8

110.5

Uttar Pradesh

109.1

112.9

110.9

77.2

71.2

74.4

97.7

98.0

97.8

Uttarakhand

93.5

95.7

94.5

80.8

84.9

82.7

88.7

91.5

90.0

West Bengal

113.7

116.9

115.3

81.9

92.3

87.0

101.4

107.4

104.4

A&N Islands

102.8

102.9

102.8

106.6

103.4

105.1

104.3

103.1

103.7

Chandigarh

104.4

108.6

106.3

108.0

106.2

107.2

105.8

107.7

106.6

D&N Haveli

108.1

106.7

107.4

100.7

95.6

98.3

105.4

102.7

104.1

Daman & Diu

99.4

95.3

97.5

92.1

90.8

91.5

96.8

93.7

95.3

Delhi

112.9

116.8

114.7

105.0

105.7

105.3

109.9

112.6

111.1

Lakshadweep

104.8

100.3

102.6

113.6

117.6

115.7

108.1

107.4

107.7

Puducherry

108.4

106.6

107.5

114.2

112.8

113.5

110.6

109.0

109.8

India

105.8

107.1

106.5

82.5

81.4

82.0

97.2

97.6

97.4

Source : Statistics of School Education 2011-12, Ministry of Human Resource Development.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;130

Table 9.3 : Number of Recognised Educational Institutions in India S l . States/No. Union No. Territorries

2011-12

Intermediate/ Sr. Sec. Schools

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;131

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal A&N Islands Chandigarh D&N Haveli Daman & Diu Delhi Lakshadweep Puducherry

Upper Prmary

Primary Universities/ S c h o o l s University level

Colleges

Technical Education

PGDM

Nursing

Teacher Training

Institutes under Ministries

19053 220 805 2608 2806 380 3523 3542 1517 2216 4225 13850 1600 7101 14710 757 845 543 461 7974 4844 15691 137 3112 533 8691 1320 4454 45 63 19 18 461 2 195

15759 945 14133 27620 15883 461 42145 3483 2993 8877 14863 33582 3002 96797 28969 733 3235 1383 465 22649 5766 40322 327 8501 1274 76398 4611 2623 76 29 99 52 598 8 95

66721 2098 31202 42112 35352 1230 0 13987 11214 15446 26731 25949 6786 43662 49915 2420 9081 1855 1662 54150 15738 49642 692 29060 2298 106510 15440 49908 217 14 202 60 2581 23 303

47 3 12 20 19 2 41 25 22 11 12 45 17 36 45 3 10 3 4 19 19 46 6 56 3 59 21 26 na 3 na na 26 na 4

4801 26 511 665 584 53 1863 1062 295 329 265 3199 1062 2277 4658 83 62 29 59 1097 969 2681 12 2499 46 4986 396 950 6 27 5 3 186 na 83

194 3 20 20 na 6 na 201 34 17 25 292 74 99 1040 2 2 2 4 127 133 175 2 470 3 294 69 92 1 1 na 2 36 na 10

31 na na 2 9 1 14 19 na na 6 24 7 18 68 na na na na 6 2 17 na 8 na 112 3 11 na 1 na na 21 na na

654 2 46 14 12 2 108 43 24 6 18 565 233 89 116 6 7 4 1 40 152 157 1 122 5 167 9 52 2 na 1 na 17 na na

480 6 22 38 47 1 356 59 17 23 5 827 272 178 1283 8 11 3 4 85 29 199 2 546 4 116 17 84 1 3 na 2 36 na 46

10 na 2 3 3 na 6 5 na na 2 6 7 6 18 1 1 na na 2 2 4 na 8 na 12 2 9 na na na na 19 na na

714261

665

35829

3450

380

2675

4810

128

India 84133 128321 478756 Source : 1. Statistics of School Education 2011-12. 2. AISHE 2012-13, Ministry of Human Resource Development. na : Not Available

A131

3 5873 118 4655 2492 2947 86 5689 3436 1785 889 1118 3644 2704 5832 7328 118 163 113 132 51 3810 8530 61 3660 350 10739 1742 4341 56 81 14 18 1427 10 121

Economic Survey 2014-15

High/ Secondary

2012-13 (Provisional)

A132

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 9.4: State-Wise Literacy Rates (1951-2011) (in per cent)

Sl.No. States/Union Territorries

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

2011

Andhra Pradesh

21.2

24.6

35.7

44.1

60.5

67.0

Arunachal Pradesh

7.1

11.3

25.6

41.6

54.3

65.4

Assam

18.5

33.0

33.9

52.9

63.3

72.2

Bihar

13.5

22.0

23.2

32.3

37.5

47.0

61.8 70.3

1 2 3 4 5

Chhattisgarh

Gujarat

Haryana

Himachal Pradesh

Jammu & Kashmir

13.0

Jharkhand

12.9

21.1

23.9

35.0

41.4

53.6

66.4

Karnataka

29.8

36.8

46.2

56.0

66.6

75.4

Kerala

47.2

55.1

69.8

78.9

89.8

90.9

94.0

Madhya Pradesh

13.2

21.4

27.3

38.6

44.7

63.7

69.3

Maharashtra

27.9

35.1

45.8

57.2

64.9

76.9

82.3

9.4

18.1

24.1

32.6

42.9

64.7

21.8

31.5

37.0

44.9

61.3

69.1

78.0

25.7

37.1

55.9

67.9

75.6

63.9

76.5

82.8

21.7

30.6

55.5

67.2

12.6

36.0

38.5

49.7

59.9

70.5

76.9

26.9

29.5

42.1

49.1

62.6

74.4

Mizoram

31.1

44.0

53.8

59.9

82.3

88.8

91.3

Nagaland

10.5

22.0

33.8

50.3

61.7

66.6

79.6

Odisha

15.8

21.7

26.2

33.6

49.1

63.1

72.9

Punjab

34.1

43.4

58.5

69.7

75.8

Rajasthan

8.5

18.1

22.6

30.1

38.6

60.4

66.1

Sikkim

17.7

34.1

56.9

68.8

81.4

Tamil Nadu

36.4

45.4

54.4

62.7

73.5

80.1

Tripura

20.2

31.0

50.1

60.4

73.2

87.2

Uttar Pradesh

12.0

20.9

24.0

32.7

40.7

56.3

67.7

Uttarakhand

18.9

18.1

33.3

46.1

57.8

71.6

78.8

West Bengal

24.6

34.5

38.9

48.7

57.7

68.6

76.3

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

30.3

40.1

51.2

63.2

73.0

81.3

86.6

Chandigarh

70.4

74.8

77.8

81.9

86.0

Dadra & Nagar Haveli

18.1

32.9

40.7

57.6

76.2

Daman & Diu

71.2

78.2

87.1

Delhi

62.0

65.1

71.9

75.3

81.7

86.2

Goa

23.5

35.4

52.0

65.7

75.5

82.0

88.7

Lakshadweep

15.2

27.2

51.8

68.4

81.8

86.7

91.8

Puducherry

43.7

53.4

65.1

74.7

81.2

85.8

All India a

18.3

28.3

34.5

43.6

52.2

64.8

73.0

Manipur

Meghalaya

17 18

Source : Office of the Registrar General of India, Ministry of Home Affairs. a : India and Manipur figures exclude those of the three sub-divisions viz. Mao Maram, Paomata and Purul of Senapati district of Manipur as census results of 2001 in these three sub-divisions were cancelled due to technical and administrative reasons. Notes : 1. Literacy rates for 1951, 1961 and 1971 Censuses relate to population aged five years and above and from 1981 onwards Literacy rates relate to the population aged seven years and above. The literacy rate for 1951 in case of West Bengal relates to total population including 0-4 age group. Literacy rate for 1951 in respect of Chhatisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Manipur are based on sample population 2. na : Not Available

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;132

Economic Survey 2014-15

A133

Table 9.5 : Access to Safe Drinking Water in Households in India (in per cent) Sl.

States/ Union Territorries

No.

1991

2001

2011

Total

Rural

Urban

Total

Rural

Urban

Total

Rural

Urban

Andhra Pradesh

55.1

49.0

73.8

80.1

76.9

90.2

90.5

88.6

94.5

Arunachal Pradesh

70.0

66.9

88.2

77.5

73.7

90.7

78.6

74.3

91.3

Assam

45.9

43.3

64.1

58.8

56.8

70.4

69.9

68.3

78.2

Bihar

58.8

56.5

73.4

86.6

86.1

91.2

94.0

93.9

94.7

Chhattisgarh

70.5

66.2

88.8

86.3

84.1

93.9

Gujarat

69.8

60.0

87.2

84.1

76.9

95.4

90.3

84.9

97.0

Haryana

74.3

67.1

93.2

86.1

81.1

97.3

93.8

92.0

96.7

Himachal Pradesh

77.3

75.5

91.9

88.6

87.5

97.0

93.7

93.2

97.8

Jammu & Kashmir

65.2

54.9

95.7

76.8

70.1

96.1

Jharkhand

42.6

35.5

68.2

60.1

54.3

78.4

Karnataka

71.7

67.3

81.4

84.6

80.5

92.1

87.5

84.4

92.3

Kerala

18.9

12.2

38.7

23.4

16.9

42.8

33.5

28.3

39.4

Madhya Pradesh

53.4

45.6

79.4

68.4

61.5

88.6

78.0

73.1

92.1

Maharashtra

68.5

54.0

90.5

79.8

68.4

95.4

83.4

73.2

95.7

Manipur

38.7

33.7

52.1

37.0

29.3

59.4

45.1

38.1

60.8

Meghalaya

36.2

26.8

75.4

39.0

29.5

73.5

44.7

35.1

79.5

Mizoram

16.2

12.9

19.9

36.0

23.8

47.8

60.4

43.4

75.8

Nagaland

53.4

55.6

45.5

46.5

47.5

42.3

53.8

54.6

51.8

Odisha

39.1

35.3

62.8

64.2

62.9

72.3

75.3

74.4

79.8

Punjab

92.7

92.1

94.2

97.6

96.9

98.9

97.6

96.7

98.9

Rajasthan

59.0

50.6

86.5

68.2

60.4

93.5

78.1

72.8

94.3

Sikkim

73.1

70.8

92.8

70.7

67.0

97.1

85.3

82.7

92.2

Tamil Nadu

67.4

64.3

74.2

85.6

85.3

85.9

92.5

92.2

92.9

Tripura

37.2

30.6

71.1

52.5

45.0

85.8

67.5

58.1

91.9

Uttar Pradesh

62.2

56.6

85.8

87.8

85.5

97.2

95.1

94.3

97.9

Uttarakhand

86.7

83.0

97.8

92.2

89.5

98.7

West Bengal

82.0

80.3

86.2

88.5

87.0

92.3

92.2

91.4

93.9

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

67.9

59.4

90.9

76.7

66.8

97.8

85.5

78.2

98.1

Chandigarh

97.7

98.1

97.7

99.8

99.9

99.8

99.3

98.7

99.4

Dadra & Nagar Haveli

45.6

41.2

91.0

77.0

70.5

96.1

91.6

84.3

98.4

Daman & Diu

71.4

56.9

86.8

96.3

94.9

98.9

98.7

97.8

99.0

Delhi

95.8

91.0

96.2

97.2

90.1

97.7

95.0

87.9

95.2

Goa

43.4

30.5

61.7

70.1

58.3

82.1

85.7

78.4

90.4

Lakshadweep

11.9

3.4

18.8

4.6

22.8

31.2

20.2

Puducherry

88.8

92.9

86.1

95.9

96.6

95.5

97.8

99.6

97.0

All India

62.3

55.5

81.4

77.9

73.2

90.0

85.5

82.7

91.4

Source : Office of the Registrar General of India, Ministry of Home Affairs. a: na :

Created in 2001. Uttarakhand, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh for 1991 are included under Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh respectively. Not available as no census was carried out in Jammu & Kashmir during 1991.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;133

A134

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 9.6 : Population of India (1951-2011) (In Thousand)

Sl. No. States /Union Territorries 1

Andhra Pradesh

Arunachal Pradeshd

Assam a

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

2001

2011

31115

35983

43503

53551

66508

76210

84581

337

468

632

865

1098

1384

8029

10837

14625

18041

22414

26656

31206

29085

34841

42126

52303

64531

82999

104099

7457

9154

11637

14010

17615

20834

25545

Bihar

Chhatisgarh

Gujarat

16263

20633

26697

34086

41310

50671

60440

Haryana

5674

7591

10036

12922

16464

21145

25351

Himachal Pradesh

2386

2812

3460

4281

5171

6078

6865

Jammu & Kashmirb

3254

3561

4617

5987

7837

10144

12541

Jharkhand

9697

11606

14227

17612

21844

26946

32988

Karnataka

19402

23587

29299

37136

44977

52851

61095

Kerala

13549

16904

21347

25454

29099

31841

33406

Madhya Pradesh

18615

23218

30017

38169

48566

60348

72627

Maharashtra

32003

39554

50412

62783

78937

96879

112374

Manipur c

578

780

1073

1421

1837

2294

2856

Meghalaya

606

769

1012

1336

1775

2319

2967

Mizoram

196

266

332

494

690

889

1097

Nagaland

213

369

516

775

1210

1990

1979

Odisha

14646

17549

21945

26370

31660

36805

41974

Punjab

9161

11135

13551

16789

20282

24359

27743

Rajasthan

15971

20156

25766

34262

44006

56507

68548

Sikkim

138

162

210

316

406

541

611

Tamil Nadu

30119

33687

41199

48408

55859

62406

72147

Tripura

Uttar Pradesh

Uttarakhand

2946

3611

4493

5726

7051

8489

10086

West Bengal

26300

34926

44312

54581

68078

80176

91276

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

115

189

281

356

381

Chandigarh

120

257

452

642

901

1055

Dadra & Nagar Haveli

104

138

220

344

Daman & Diu

102

158

243

Delhi

1744

2659

4066

6220

9421

13851

16788

Goa

547

590

795

1008

1170

1348

1459

Lakshadweep

Puducherry

317

369

472

604

808

974

1248

All India c

361088

439235

548160

683329

846421

1028737

1210855

639

1142

1556

2053

2757

3199

3674

60274

70144

83849

105137

132062

166198

199812

Source : Office of the Registrar General of India, Ministry of Home Affairs. a : The 1981 Census could not be held in Assam. Total population for 1981 has been worked out by Interpolation. b : The 1991 Census could not be held in Jammu & Kashmir. Total population for 1991 has been worked out by Interpolation. c : India and Manipur figures include estimated population for those of the three sub-divisions viz. Mao Maram, Paomata and Purul Senapati district of Manipur as census results of 2001 in these three sub-divisions were cancelled due to technical and administrative reasons. d : Census conducted for the first time in 1961.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;134

Table 9.7 : Population under Different Age Group and Child Sex Ratio in 2001 and 2011 S l . States/Union Territorries No.

Age Group 2001 0-14

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;135

Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhatisgarh Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal Andaman & Nicobar Islands Chandigarh Dadra & Nagar Haveli Daman & Diu Delhi Goa Lakshadweep Puducherry

29 30 31 32 33 34 35

All India

60 & above

Age not stated

0-14

15-34

35-59

60 & above

Age not stated

2001

2011

24398125 442825 9970342 34874151 7692654 16624168 7579980 1884390 3617025 10708694 16845601 8296545 23252416 31100375 706705 980877 313736 728409 12207872 7617876 22543231 188907 16710874 1075552 67923332 3086976 26645405 104044

26904637 366838 9220063 24971476 6782442 18233455 7458045 2159835 3523571 8563383 18667321 11271154 19871596 34038392 813358 776836 331766 762383 12591532 8609860 18257954 205320 22392020 1135652 51963534 2845406 27999332 142088

18985717 237279 5875783 17473783 4826242 12267094 4441951 1471395 2282065 6061782 13223774 8911546 12783564 23167117 496722 452223 193272 404177 8904094 5845668 11608147 115646 17366443 750645 33924676 1884841 19719644 90375

5788078 49916 1560366 5501274 1504383 3499063 1584089 547564 675324 1578662 4062022 3335675 4280924 8454660 145470 105726 49023 90323 3039100 2191693 3810272 29040 5507400 232549 11649468 654356 5700099 17366

133450 1110 28974 177825 28082 47237 80499 14716 45715 33308 51844 26454 159523 118083 4533 3160 776 4744 62062 93902 287584 1938 428942 4805 736911 17770 111717 2279

21790792 493361 10248899 41721188 8183836 17445613 7529954 1775385 4240710 11891118 16024874 7830974 24302242 29917215 861688 1177942 356002 679032 12076422 7084950 23725426 165937 17007503 1017991 71308266 3129008 24737475 92675

30609248 512549 11123193 32264872 8861697 21695832 9370426 2419844 4411400 10992825 22349821 10335954 25176834 40661653 1060221 1052138 412771 760810 14385953 10174719 23811691 251098 25144641 1362144 68153539 3602662 32655852 147586

23131065 312669 7736116 22002745 6472641 16272844 6225793 1956201 2951417 7630779 16883719 11011254 17351555 30280834 726088 592123 259172 434463 11408224 7576330 15629580 151614 22418323 1002622 43288570 2437205 26027955 114528

8278241 63639 2078544 7707145 2003909 4786559 2193755 703009 922656 2356678 5791032 4193393 5713316 11106935 200020 138902 68628 102726 3984448 2865817 5112138 40752 7509758 289544 15439904 900809 7742382 25424

771431 1509 18824 403502 23115 238844 31534 10163 15119 116734 45851 34486 82862 407696 7777 5784 633 1471 119171 41522 269602 1176 66805 1616 1622062 16608 112451 368

961 964 965 942 975 883 819 896 941 965 946 960 932 913 957 973 964 964 953 798 909 963 942 966 916 908 960 957

939 972 962 935 969 890 834 909 862 948 948 964 918 894 930 970 970 943 941 846 888 957 943 957 902 890 956 968

261188 77758 43194 4492939 331226 20734 262686

364690 90151 75924 5368740 523205 21382 373118

228545 43663 30973 3248002 373952 14752 256712

44912 8814 8042 719650 112273 3729 81016

1300 104 71 21176 7012 53 813

266512 107813 54985 4565319 318160 16457 298392

426702 147931 122110 6534460 503105 22857 440449

294812 73701 54435 4524015 471691 19774 387575

67078 13892 11361 1147445 163495 5270 120436

346 372 356 16702 2094 115 1101

845 979 926 868 938 959 967

880 926 904 871 942 911 967

363610812 347676459 237962264

76622321

2738472 372444116 421959587 308112432 103849040

4489802

927

918

Source : Census 2001 and 2011, Office of the Registrar General of India, Ministry of Home Affairs.

A135

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

35-59

Child Sex Ratio (0-6 years)

Economic Survey 2014-15

15-34

Age Group 2011

A136

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 9.8 : Socio-Economic Profiles &

Socio-economic Indicators / Items Population related* Population 2001( in ‘000) * Population 2011( in ‘000) * Percentage decadal growth rate of Population (1991-2001)* Percentage decadal growth rate of Population (2001- 2011)* Sex-ratio 2001 (Females per 1000 males)* Sex-ratio 2011 (Females per 1000 males)* States HDI and its components** HDI Ranking 1999-2000 HDI 1999-2000 Health Index 1999-2000 Income Index 1999-2000 Education Index 1999-2000 HDI Ranking 2007-08 HDI 2007-08 Health Index 2008 Income Index 2007-08 Education Index 2007-08 Growth and Per capita income related at constant prices (2004-05)# GSDP 2012-13 over previous year GSDP 2013-14 over previous year Average GSDP 2008-09 to 2012-13 Average GSDP 2009-10 to 2013-14 Per capita income (PCY) 2013-14 Per capita income (PCY) 2012-13 Poverty Headcount Ratio (HCR) *** 2011-12 (Rural) 2011-12 (Urban) 2011-12 (Total) 2009-10 (Rural) 2009-10 (Urban) 2009-10 (Total) Rural Urban Disparity 2009-10 ## Rural Average MPCEMMRP (in `) Rural share of food expenditure (%) Urban Average MPCEMMRP (in `) Urban share of food expenditure (%) Rural Urban Disparity 2011-12 ## Rural Average MPCEMMRP (in `) Rural share of food expenditure (%) Urban Average MPCEMMRP (in `) Urban share of food expenditure (%) Unemployment Rates (per 1000) under usual status (adjusted) 2009-10 ## Rural Persons Urban Persons Total Persons Unemployment Rates (per 1000) under usual status (adjusted) 2011-12 ## Rural Persons Urban Persons Total Persons

Andhra Pradesh

Assam

76210 84581 14.6 11.0 978 993

26656 31206 18.9 17.1 935 958

82999 104099 28.6 25.4 919 918

50671 60439 22.7 19.3 920 919

21145 25351 28.4 19.9 861 879

6078 6865 17.5 12.9 968 972

15 0.368 0.521 0.197 0.385 15 0.473 0.580 0.287 0.553

17 0.336 0.339 0.152 0.516 16 0.444 0.407 0.288 0.636

19 0.292 0.506 0.100 0.271 21 0.367 0.563 0.127 0.409

10 0.466 0.562 0.323 0.512 11 0.527 0.633 0.371 0.577

7 0.501 0.576 0.417 0.512 9 0.552 0.627 0.408 0.622

4 0.581 0.681 0.426 0.636 3 0.652 0.717 0.491 0.747

5.09 5.84 7.13 6.92 5.08 4.55

6.06 5.87 6.67 6.70 4.63 4.59

10.73 9.92 11.19 10.26 8.97 9.23

7.96 NA 8.73 9.22 NA 6.57

5.55 6.49 8.18 7.84 4.96 3.92

6.14 6.24 7.55 7.31 5.34 5.14

11.0 5.8 9.20 22.8 17.7 21.1

33.9 20.5 32.0 39.9 26.1 37.9

34.1 31.2 33.7 55.3 39.4 53.5

21.5 10.1 16.6 26.7 17.9 23.0

11.6 10.3 11.2 18.6 23.0 20.1

8.5 4.3 8.1 9.1 12.6 9.5

1234 58.1 2238 44.8

1003 64.4 1755 52.9

780 64.7 1238 52.9

1110 57.7 1909 46.2

1510 54.0 2321 43.1

1536 51.6 2654 41.5

1754 51.4 2685 42.3

1219 61.3 2189 47.7

1127 59.3 1507 50.5

1536 54.9 2581 45.2

2176 52.1 3817 39.2

2034 47.3 3259 42.4

12 31 16

39 52 40

20 73 26

8 18 11

18 25 20

16 49 18

12 43 20

45 56 46

32 56 34

3 8 5

24 42 29

10 40 13

A—136

Bihar Gujarat Haryana H i m a c h a l Pradesh

Economic Survey 2014-15

A137

Inter State Comparison of India Karnataka

Kerala

Madhya Pradesh

Maharashtra

Odisha

Punjab

Rajasthan

Tamil Nadu

Uttar Pradesh

We s t Bengal

All India

52851 61095 17.5 15.6 965 973

31841 33406 9.4 4.9 1059.0 1084

60348 72627 24.3 20.4 919 931

96879 112374 22.7 16.0 922 929

36805 41974 16.3 14.2 972 979

24359 27743 20.1 13.9 876 895

56507 68548 28.4 21.3 921 928

62406 72147 11.7 15.6 987 996

166198 199812 25.9 20.2 898 912

80176 91276 17.8 13.8 934 950

1028737 1210855 21.5 17.7 933 943

12 0.432 0.567 0.260 0.468 12 0.519 0.627 0.326 0.605

2 0.677 0.782 0.458 0.789 1 0.790 0.817 0.629 0.924

20 0.285 0.363 0.127 0.365 20 0.375 0.430 0.173 0.522

6 0.501 0.601 0.297 0.606 7 0.572 0.650 0.351 0.715

22 0.275 0.376 0.076 0.372 22 0.362 0.450 0.139 0.499

5 0.543 0.632 0.455 0.542 5 0.605 0.667 0.495 0.654

14 0.387 0.520 0.293 0.348 17 0.434 0.587 0.253 0.462

8 0.480 0.586 0.285 0.570 8 0.570 0.637 0.355 0.719

18 0.316 0.398 0.179 0.371 18 0.380 0.473 0.175 0.492

13 0.422 0.600 0.210 0.455 13 0.492 0.650 0.252 0.575

5.47 5.4 5.54 5.20 4.76 3.58

8.24 NA 7.57 8.07 NA 7.72

9.89 11.08 9.59 9.31 9.64 8.60

6.18 8.71 6.83 8.05 8.36 4.47

8.09 5.60 6.43 6.01 1.87 5.23

4.63 5.25 5.96 5.84 3.30 3.26

4.52 4.6 7.98 7.08 3.00 2.86

3.39 7.29 8.04 8.41 6.86 2.22

5.92 5.14 6.59 6.22 3.43 3.42

6.72 8.62 6.03 6.77 7.78 5.36

4.47 4.74 7.08 6.68 2.70 2.12

24.5 15.3 20.9 26.1 19.6 23.6

9.1 5.0 7.1 12.0 12.1 12.0

35.7 21.0 31.7 42.0 22.9 36.7

24.2 9.1 17.4 29.5 18.3 24.5

35.7 17.3 32.6 39.2 25.9 37.0

7.7 9.2 8.3 14.6 18.1 15.9

16.1 10.7 14.7 26.4 19.9 24.8

15.8 6.5 11.3 21.2 12.8 17.1

30.4 26.1 29.4 39.4 31.7 37.7

22.5 14.7 20.0 28.8 22.0 26.7

25.7 13.7 21.9 33.8 20.9 29.8

1020 56.5 2053 42.3

1835 45.9 2413 40.2

903 55.8 1666 41.7

1153 54.0 2437 41.0

819 61.9 1548 48.4

1649 48.2 2109 44.3

1179 54.8 1663 48.0

1160 54.7 1948 45.0

899 57.9 1574 46.3

952 63.4 1965 46.2

1054 57.0 1985 44.4

1561 51.4 3026 40.1

2669 43.0 3408 37.0

1152 52.9 2058 42.2

1619 52.4 3189 41.6

1003 57.2 1941 45.4

2345 44.1 2794 41.0

1598 50.5 2442 44.8

1693 51.5 2622 42.7

1156 53.0 2051 44.0

1291 58.2 2591 44.2

1430 52.9 2630 42.6

5 27 12

75 73 74

7 29 11

6 32 15

30 42 31

26 48 33

4 22 7

15 32 22

10 29 14

19 40 24

16 34 20

9 29 16

68 61 66

4 26 9

7 23 13

22 35 24

19 28 22

7 31 12

20 27 23

9 41 16

27 48 33

17 34 22

0.387 0.497 0.223 0.442 0.467 0.563 0.271 0.568

(Contd...)

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;137

A138

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 9.8 : Socio-Economic Profiles &

Socio-economic Indicators / Items

Health related $ Male Life expectancy at birth (2008-12) Female Life expectancy at birth (2008-12) Total Life expectancy at birth (2008-12) Male Life expectancy at birth (2007-11) Female Life expectancy at birth (2007-11) Total Life expectancy at birth (2007-11) Infant Mortality Rates (per 1000 live births) 2012 Infant Mortality Rates (per 1000 live births) 2013 Birth Rate (per 1000) 2012 Death Rate (per 1000) 2012 Birth Rate (per 1000) 2013 Death Rate (per 1000) 2013 Education related $$ GER (6-10 years) (2010-11) GER(11-13 years) (2010-11) GER(6-13 years) (2010-11) PTR (2010-11) Primary/Jr.Basic School PTR (2010-11) Middle/Sr. Basic School PTR (2010-11) High/Post Basic School GER (6-10 years) (2011-12) GER(11-13 years) (2011-12) GER(6-13 years) (2011-12) PTR (2011-12) Primary/Jr.Basic School PTR (2011-12) Middle/Sr. Basic School PTR (2011-12) High/Post Basic School Source : * ** *** # ## $ $$ NA NR

: : : : : : : : :

Andhra Pradesh

Assam

Bihar Gujarat Haryana H i m a c h a l Pradesh

64.7 69.4 67.0 64.0 68.6 66.3 41 39 17.5 7.4 17.4 7.3

61.2 64.8 62.7 61.2 63.6 62.2 55 54 22.5 7.9 22.4 7.8

66.7 67.6 67.2 65.9 66.8 66.3 43 42 27.7 6.6 27.6 6.6

65.5 70.1 67.7 65.2 69.6 67.3 38 36 21.1 6.6 20.8 6.5

65.4 70.1 67.6 65.0 69.8 67.3 42 41 21.6 6.4 21.3 6.3

68.3 72.7 70.5 67.9 72.3 70.1 36 35 16.2 6.7 16 6.7

99.5 80.1 92.0 31 25 26 92.8 77.5 86.9 30 28 26

94.3 67.9 84.0 28 17 26 81.5 65.7 75.7 28 14 20

127.7 64.6 102.9 76 51 68 99.0 65.2 87.8 82 45 71

120.3 85.7 107.2 NA 35 33 110.4 78.2 98.1 NA 33 45

94.9 83.5 90.5 51 38 26 89.5 79.8 85.8 51 29 26

109.2 113.8 111.0 15 14 24 101.8 102.4 102.1 15 22 19

Office of Registrar General of India (RGI) as per Census 2011 & 2001. India HDR 2011 & 1999-2000. Planning Commission. CSO. NSS 2009-10 & 2011-12 round (MMRP - Modified mixed reference period). SRS Bulletin & Arbidged life tables, Office of Registrar General of India (RGI). Ministry of Human Resource Development (GER - Gross enrolment ratio, PTR - Pupil teacher ratio). Not Available. Not reported.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;138

Economic Survey 2014-15

A139

Inter State Comparison of India (Contd...) Karnataka

Kerala

Madhya Pradesh

Maharashtra

Odisha

Punjab

Rajasthan

Tamil Nadu

Uttar Pradesh

We s t Bengal

All India

65.8 70.3 68.0 65.2 70.0 67.5 32 31 18.5 7.1 18.3 7.0

71.6 77.7 74.7 71.5 77.3 74.4 12 12 14.9 6.9 14.7 6.9

61.9 65.0 63.3 61.3 64.5 62.8 56 54 26.6 8.1 26.3 8.0

68.8 72.9 70.8 68.3 72.4 70.3 25 24 16.6 6.3 16.5 6.2

63.4 65.3 64.3 62.9 64.5 63.7 53 51 19.9 8.5 19.6 8.4

68.1 72.9 70.3 67.7 72.2 69.8 28 26 15.9 6.8 15.7 6.7

65.2 69.4 67.2 65.0 68.7 66.8 49 47 25.9 6.6 25.6 6.5

67.9 71.9 69.8 67.6 71.4 69.4 21 21 15.7 7.4 15.6 7.3

62.3 64.8 63.5 61.9 64.2 63.0 53 50 27.4 7.7 27.2 7.7

68.1 71.5 69.7 67.8 71.3 69.4 32 31 16.1 6.3 16 6.4

65.4 68.8 67.0 64.9 68.2 66.5 42 40 21.6 7.0 21.4 7.0

104.7 90.7 99.3 17 27 21 102.6 91.1 98.2 17 37 22

91.4 103.9 96.2 23 25 25 87.3 96.5 90.9 22 26 24

135.2 101.4 122.6 38 39 39 124.3 95.5 113.7 38 23 39

104.7 92.4 100.0 29 32 32 102.1 92.3 98.3 29 40 32

119.4 82.0 104.8 33 26 23 106.7 74.3 94.2 32 17 25

84.3 80.8 83.0 26 15 23 106.6 92.4 101.2 33 37 34

109.9 82.4 99.3 46 26 22 104.2 77.2 94.3 48 28 22

111.8 112.3 112.0 27 32 35 115.7 105.4 111.7 26 42 35

126.9 79.9 109.5 79 69 69 110.9 74.4 97.8 73 45 69

92.7 86.3 90.1 45 49 46 115.3 87.0 104.4 30 53 113

115.5 85.2 103.9 43 33 30 106.5 82.0 97.4 41 33 32

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;139

A140

Economic Survey 2014-15 Table 9.9 : Trends of Social Services Expenditure by General Government (` crore)

Items

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

Total Expenditure Expenditure on Social Services of which: i) Education ii) Health iii) Others

1,599,677 380,628

18,52,119 4,46,382

21,45,145 5,29,398

24,21,768 5,80,868

28,53,495 6,54,602

33,64,795 8,11,536

38,95,541 8,68,476

162,008 74,273 144,347

1,97,070 88,054 1,61,258

244156 100576 1,84,666

2,77,053 1,10,228 1,93,587

3,11,319 1,23,264 2,20,020

3,68,475 1,46,211 2,96,850

3,95,897 1,54,567 3,18,011

Total Expenditure Expenditure on Social Services of which: i) Education ii) Health iii) Others

28.4 6.8

28.6 6.9

27.5 6.8

27.4 6.6

28.4 6.6

28.4 7.2

30.3 6.7

2.9 1.3 2.6

3.0 1.4 2.5

3.1 1.3 2.4

3.1 1.2 2.2

3.2 1.3 2.6

3.1 1.2 2.5

Expenditure on Social Services of which: i) Education ii) Health iii) Others

23.8

24.1

24.7

22.9

24.1

22.3

10.1 4.6 9.0

10.6 4.8 8.7

11.4 4.7 8.6

11.4 4.6 8

10.9 4.3 7.7

11.0 4.3 8.8

10.2 4 8.2

47.6 18.8 33.6

45.4 18 36.6

45.6 17.8 36.6

2012-13 2013-14 RE

2014-15 BE

As percentage to GDP

As percentage to total expenditure

As percentage to social services i) ii) iii) Source :

Education Health Others

42.6 19.5 37.9

44.1 19.7 36.1

46.1 19 34.9

47.7 19 33.3

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as obtained from Budget Documents of union and state governments.

Note :1. Social services include, education, sports, art and culture; medical and public health; family welfare; water supply and sanitation; housing; urban development; welfare of SCs, STs and OBCs, labour and labour welfare; social security and welfare, nutrition, relief on account of natural calamities etc. 2. Expenditure on ‘Education’ pertains to expenditure on ‘Education, Sports, Arts and Culture’. 3. Expenditure on ‘Health’ includes expenditure on ‘Medical and Public Health’, ‘Family Welfare’ and ‘Water Supply and Sanitation’. 4. Data for states from 2012-13 onwards are provisional and pertain to budgets of 26 states governments out of which 5 are vote-on-account. 5. GDP data from 2011-12 to 2013-14 are based on new base year 2011-12.

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List of Schemes/Programmes I

Education Related

Education through broadband facilities: Under this mission more than 700 courses in various disciplines in engineering and science are available online under National Programme on Technology Enhanced Learning (NPTEL). E-content for 8 undergraduate subjects has also been generated by the Consortium of Education Communication (CEC) in collaboration with its media centers. Pandit Madan Mohan Malviya National Mission on Teachers and Teaching: The Mission envisages to address comprehensively all issue related to teachers, teaching, teacher preparation, professional development curriculum design, designing and development assessment. It is also envisaged that the mission would pursue long term goals of building a strong professional cadre of teachers by setting performance standards and creating top class institutional facilities for innovative teaching and professional development of teachers. Higher Education for persons with special needs (HEPSN)- The University Grant Commission (UGC) implemented scheme is basically meant for creating an environment at the higher education institutions to enrich higher education learning experiences for differently abled persons. Creating awareness about the capabilities of differently abled persons, constructions aimed at improving accessibility, purchase of equipments to enrich learning etc. are the broad categories of assistance under the scheme. Enhancing Access to Higher Education in unreserved or underserved areas: Rashtriya Uchchatar Shiksha Abhiyan (RUSA) is enhancing access to higher education in unserved or underserved areas by setting up new institutions, and improving infrastructure and facilities in existing institutions. However, specific locations of these institutions are identified by the State Government based on their need assessment and requirements. Launch of Unnat Bharat Abhiyan connecting higher education and society to enable technology and its use for development of rural areas. Launch of Global Initiative for Academics Network (GIAN), an initiative to attract the best foreign academics to Indian Universities of Excellence. Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA) 

The framework has been revised and reimbursement towards expenditure incurred for at least 25 percent admissions of children belonging to disadvantaged group and weaker section in private unaided schools would be supported from the academic year 2014-15.



The Government in association with corporate sector has taken up for construction of toilets in all schools with a separate girls toilets before 15th August, 2015.



‘Padhe Bharat Badhe Bharat’ has been planned to improve language development by creating an enduring interest in reading and writing with comprehension.

Rashtriya Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyan (RMSA) The RMSA aims at enhancing access to secondary education and improving its quality to ensure GER more than 90 per cent by 2017 and universal retention by 2020. Revision of Certain Norms of the Scheme: 

To permit State/UT Governments to use State Schedule of Rates(SSOR) or CPWD Rate, (whichever is lower) for construction of civil works permissible under the RMSA.



To increase the Management, Monitoring Evaluation and Research (MMER) from 2.2 percent to 4 percent of the total outlay under the programme, with 0.5 percent of the 4 percent earmarked for national level and the rest of the 3.5 percent as part of the State allocation.



To authorize the RMSA Project Approval Board (PAB) of the Ministry of Human Resource Development to consider for approval Integrated Plan of the umbrella scheme of RMSA,



To authorize the release of funds to the RMSA State Implementation Society directly for all components of the RMSA umbrella scheme

Teacher Education (TE): The Centrally Sponsored Scheme for TE has been revised for the XII Plan with an approved outlay of Rs. 6308.45 crore to be shared between the Centre and the States in the ratio of 75:25 (90:10 for NER) to strengthen SCERTs, establish DIETs, Institutes of Advanced Studies in Education (IASEs) and strengthen the existing Colleges of Teacher Education (CTEs) and up-grade existing Government secondary teacher education institutions into CTEs and Departments of Education in Universities as IASEs; and establish Block Institutes of Teacher Education (BITE) in identified 196 SC/ST/Minority Concentration Districts. Saakshar Bharat (SB): SB/ Adult Education: The focus of SB is female literacy. By the end of November 2014, the programme was sanctioned in 1.56 lakh gram panchayats of 396 low female literacy districts in 26 states and 1 UT. Over 1.52 lakh adult education centres have been set up, manned by 2.67 lakh village coordinators. Up to November 2014, about 3.13 million learners, of which around three-fourths are women, have successfully passed the assessment tests for basic literacy conducted by the National Institute of Open Schooling. Schemes to encourage education among SC students and other schemes: i.

Pre-Matric Scholarship Scheme for SC Students studying in Classes IX and X

ii.

Pre-Matric scholarships to students, whose parents are engaged in ‘unclean’ occupations

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iii.

Rajiv Gandhi National Fellowship Scheme aims at providing financial assistance to SC students pursuing M.Phil and Ph.D. courses.

iv.

National Overseas Scholarship Scheme: A financial support to students pursuing Master’s level courses and PhD/Post-Doctoral courses abroad, maximum 60 awards are to be given from the year 2013-14 onwards.

Scheme of Top Class Education: Eligible students who secure admission in notified premier institutions like the IITs, IIMs, and NITs, are provided full financial support for meeting the requirements of tuition fees, living expenses, books, and computers.

Educational schemes for OBCs: The Pre-Matric scholarship scheme aims to motivate children of OBCs studying at Pre-Matric stage and Post-Matric scholarship intends to promote higher education by providing financial support leading to their earning Ph.D. Degrees. Scheme for Economic Development: Under Assistance to Voluntary Organizations Working for Welfare of OBCs, grants-in-aid is provided to voluntary organizations to involve the non-Government sector by providing skill up-gradation amongst OBCs in various trades. Under the Scheme, financial assistance is provided to Non-Governmental Organizations for imparting various vocational trainings to OBCs. II

Employment/Training Related

Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Grameen Koushalya Yojana (DDU-GKY) is a placement linked skill development scheme for rural poor youth. This initiative is part of NRLM. The skilling program for rural youth has now been refocused and reprioritized to build the capacity of rural poor youth to address the needs of the domestic and global skill requirements. A total of 51,956 candidates have been skilled under DDU-GKY out of which 28,995 candidates have been placed till November 2014 during 2014-15. Mahatma Gandhi NREGA: 

Intensive and Participatory Planning Exercise (IPPE) to prepare the labour budget for financial year 2015-16 in selected 2500 backward Blocks has been initiated.



Emphasis on Agriculture and Allied Activities to ensure that at least 60 percent of the works in a district in terms of cost shall be for creation of productive assets linked to agriculture and allied activities through development of land, water and trees.



Provision for Payment of Technical Assistants/ Barefoot Engineers from the Material Component of the Work



Special Financial Assistance of Rs. 147 crore for Staffing of Social Audit Units.



Use of Machines for works where speed of execution is most critical (like the works in a flood prone area).

National Livelihoods Mission (NRLM): This was launched after restructuring Swarnajayanti Gram Swarozgar Yojana (SGSY). It aims at organizing all rural poor households and continuously nurturing and supporting them till they come out of abject poverty, by organizing one woman member from each household into affinity-based. National Urban Livelihood Mission (NULM): Swarna Jayanti Shahari Rozgar Yojana (SJSRY) which has been restructured into NULM, aims at organizing urban poor in self help groups, imparting skill training to urban poor for self and wage employment and helping them to set up self-employment venture by providing credit on subsidized rate of interest. In addition, shelters for urban homeless and infrastructure for street vendors can also be taken up under this Mission. Support to Training and Employment Programme (STEP): The Scheme is intended to benefit women who are in the age group of 16 years and above by providing skills to them for their employability. The Scheme covers any sector for imparting skills related to employability and entrepreneurship, including but not limited to Agriculture, Horticulture, Food Processing, Handlooms etc. and skills for the work place such as spoken English, Gems & Jewellery, Travel & Tourism and Hospitality. Special Central Assistance (SCA) to the Scheduled Castes Sub Plan (SCSP): This is a major initiative for uplifting the SCs above the poverty line through self-employment or training. The amount of subsidy admissible is 50 per cent of the project cost. NaiManzil’ for education and skill development of drop outs with a corpus fund of Rs. 1023 Crore during 2014-15. USTTAD (Upgrading the Skills and Training in Traditional Arts/Crafts for Development) aims to conserve traditional arts/crafts of minorities and for building capacity of traditional artisans and craftsmen belonging to minority communities. MANAS for upgrading entrepreneurial skills of minority youth. and ‘Cyber Gram’ to impart training for Digital Literacy. Training of 1,70,005 minority students has been sanctioned upto 31.12.2014. III

Finance, Insurance and Social Welfare Related

Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojna (PMJDY) was launched on 28th August, 2014 with a revised target of 10 crore bank accounts by 26th January 2015. The scheme has yielded deposits of ‘ 836905.5 lakh with 1063.9 lakh new bank accounts as on 03.01.2015. Payment solutions are an important part of financial inclusion for which a new card payment scheme known as RuPay Card has been in operation since 8th May, 2014. Banks have further been asked to provide universal coverage across all the six lakh villages of the country by providing at least one Basic Banking Account, per household, with indigenous RuPay Debit Card having inbuilt accident insurance of ‘ 1.00 lakh and life insurance cover of ‘ 30,000. The RuPay Card is on par with other debit cards. These two schemes are complementary and will enable achievement of multiple objectives such as financial inclusion, insurance penetration and digitalization. Credit Risk Guarantee Fund (CRGF): This Fund has been created to guarantee the lending agencies for loans to new EWS/LIG borrowers in urban areas seeking individual housing loans not exceeding a sum of Rs. 8 lakh (earlier Rs.5 Lakh) for a housing unit of size upto 430 sqft (40 sqm) carpet areas without any third party guarantee or collateral security.

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Rajiv Rinn Yojana (RRY): RRY is a Central Sector Scheme applicable in all the urban areas of the Country and provides for interest subsidy of 5% (500 basis points) on loans granted to Economically Weaker Sections and Low Income Groups to construct their houses or extend the existing ones. Aam Aadmi Bima Yojana (AABY): The AABY extends life and disability cover to persons between the age of 18 years to 59 years, living below and marginally above the poverty line in 47 identified vocational / occupational groups, including rural landless households. The Scheme is also available to all RSBY beneficiaries. The AABY provides insurance cover on natural death, death due to accident, permanent and total permanent disability due to accident. It also provides an add-on-benefit of Scholarship of Rs 100 per month per child to a maximum of two children. National Social Assistance Programme (NSAP): Schemes under NSAP are social security/welfare scheme for the persons living Below Poverty Line (BPL) and pension/assistance is provided to the BPL household in both rural as well as urban areas. Venture Capital Fund for Scheduled Castes: This was announced in Interim Budget Speech for FY 2014-15 and accordingly, the Government has allocated Rs.200 crore for the fund. Scheme of Equity Support to the National Safai Karamcharis Finance and Development Corporation (NSKFDC) and National Scheduled Castes Finance and Development Corporation (NSFDC): These corporations implement various loan Schemes and skill development programmes for the development of the target group. Tribal Sub Plan and Special Area Programmes: There are two special area programmes, (i) Special Central Assistance to States to supplement their TSP (SCA to TSP) for income generating schemes, creation of incidental infrastructure, community based activities and development of forest villages, and (ii) grants under Article 275(I) of the Constitution for development and upgradation of administration in tribal areas. The latter is also used for setting up of Eklavya Model Residential Schools (EMRS) in States for providing quality education in remote areas. National Scheduled Tribes Finance and Development Corporation (NSTFDC) provides loans and micro-credit at concessional rates of interest for income-generating activities. IV

Health Related

Swachh Bharat Mission (Gramin): This was launched on 2nd October, 2014, which aims at attaining an Open Defecation Free India by 2nd October, 2019, by providing access to toilet facilities to all rural households and initiating Solid and Liquid Waste Management activities in all Gram Panchayats to promote cleanliness. Under SBM(G), the incentives for Individual Household latrines (IHHLs) have been enhanced from Rs.10,000/- to Rs. 12,000/- to provide for water availability. The part funding from Mahatma Gandhi NREGA for the payment of incentives for the construction of Individual House Hold Latrines (IHHLs) is now paid from the Swachh Bharat Mission (Gramin). Initiatives by the Government in this regard include media campaigns, provisioning for incentivizing ASHAs and Anganwadi workers for promoting sanitation, guidelines to involve Corporates in Sanitation sector through Corporate Social Responsibilities, strengthening online monitoring system for entering households level data gathered from the Baseline Survey. National Health Mission (NHM): The NHM came into being in 2013 to enable universal access to equitable, affordable, and quality health care services. It subsumes the NRHM and National Urban Health Mission (NUHM) as sub-missions. The NUHM was initiated in 2013 to cover all cities/ towns with a population of more than 50,000 and all district headquarters with a population above 30,000. Other towns would continue to be covered under the NRHM. Additionally services of nearly 9 lakh Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs) have contributed to healthcare service delivery. Rural Drinking Water - National Rural Drinking Water Programme (NRDWP): 

20,000 number of Solar Power Based Water Supply Schemes have been approved across all the States for their habitations located in far flung / hilly areas or where availability of electricity is a constraint.



During the massive floods in Jammu & Kashmir , mobile water treatment plant and drinking water bottles / pouches were airlifted for the flood affected inhabitants.



Guidelines with regard to Community Water Purification Plants



For identifying ground water sources, the Ministry prepared Hydro Geo-Morphological Maps and gave them to the States.



Move for Certification of ISO-9001 for the Ministry - The Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation is working towards obtaining ISO – 9001 Certification

Pradhan Mantri Swasthya Suraksha Yojana (PMSSY): Under the PMSSY, six All India Institute for Medical Sciences (AIIMS) - in the first phase have become functional. Besides, up-gradation of total 58 medical colleges, 13 medical colleges in the first phase, 6 in the second phase and 39 in the third phase has been envisaged. Further, under phase-IV of PMSSY, 12 more medical colleges are proposed to be upgraded and four AIIMS like institutes each at Andhra Pradesh, Vidarbha region (Maharashtra), West Bengal and Poorvanchal are proposed to be established. Human Resources, Infrastructure Development/ Upgradation in Tertiary Health Care: With a view to strengthening the medical education infrastructure in the country, the Government has initiated two new Centrally Sponsored Schemes, i.e., the ‘Establishment of New Medical Colleges attached with District/ Referral hospitals’ with a corpus of Rs. 10,971.1 crore and the “Upgradation of existing State Government/ Central Government medical colleges to increase MBBS seats in the country” with a corpus of Rs. 10,000 crore. Scheme of Assistance for the Prevention of Alcoholism and Substance (Drugs) Abuse: The Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment coordinates and monitors all aspects of drug abuse prevention which include assessment of the extent of the problem, preventive action, treatment and rehabilitation of addicts and public awareness. Under this scheme, financial assistance up to 90% of the approved expenditure is given to the voluntary organizations and other eligible agencies for setting up/running Integrated Rehabilitation Centre for Addicts (IRCAs).

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Economic Survey 2014-15

Housing/Infrastructure Related

Indira Awaas Yojana (IAY): Priority is to be given to families of the manual scavengers, including those rehabilitated and rehabilitated bonded labourers. Transgenders are also included now. Priority is given to households with single girl child, households where a member is suffering from Leprosy/cancer and people living with HIV (PLHIV). Apart from NE States, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and J&K, the hilly States, other State Governments can also identify difficult areas, keeping the unit as Gram Panchayat. Rajiv Awas Yojana (RAY): 10% of the RAY allocation is kept for the innovative projects and the projects for slum development / relocation for the slums on Central Government land or land owned by its agencies; autonomous bodies etc. To increase affordable housing stock, as part of the preventive strategy, the Affordable Housing in Partnership (AHP) Scheme is in place under RAY. External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) has been allowed for affordable housing projects from 2012. It has been extended for Slum Rehabilitation Projects from 2013-14. Borrowings to the tune of US $ 1.834 Billion have been channeled in the past 3 years. Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY): This is a fully funded centrally sponsored scheme with the objective of providing all-weather road connectivity and also permits upgradation of existing rural roads. Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM): This was launched to implement reform-driven, planned development of cities in a Mission mode with four components of which two, viz., the Sub-Mission for Urban Infrastructure and Governance and the Sub-Mission for Basic Services to the Urban Poor are implemented in 65 select cities. The other two components, namely, Urban Infrastructure Development Scheme for Small and Medium Towns and Integrated Housing and Slum Development Programme are implemented in other cities/towns. VI

Women and Children Related

Beti Bachao Beti Padhao (BBBP) Programme: The programme was launched on 22 nd January, 2015 at Panipat, Haryana for promoting survival, protection and education of girl child. It aims to address the issue of declining Child Sex Ratio (CSR) through a mass campaign targeted at changing social mind set and creating awareness about the criticality of the issue. The overall goal of the BBBP programme is to prevent gender biased sex selective elimination, ensure survival and protection of the girl child and to ensure education and participation of the girl child. Nai Roshni a leadership development training programme has been extended to 24 States for 66,350 women in 2014-15 and trainings have been imparted on Government Mechanisms, Involvement in decision making process, Health & Hygiene, Sanitation, Violence against women and their rights, Banking Systems, etc., to generate awareness and develop confidence among women. Reproductive and Child Health (RCH): Two RCH programmes, i.e. Janani Suraksha Yojna (JSY) and Janani Shishu Suraksha Karyakram (JSSK), aim to bring about a change in three critical health indicators, maternal mortality rate (MMR), infant mortality rate (IMR), and total fertility rate (TFR). Mid-Day Meal (MDM): Under the MOM Scheme, hot cooked mid-day meals are provided to all children attending elementary classes (I-VIII) in Government, Government aided, Local body, Special Training Centers as well as Madrasas / Maqtabs supported under SSA across the country. At present, a midday meal provides an energy content of 450 calories and protein content of 12 grams at primary stage and an energy content of 700 calories and protein content of 20 grams at upper primary stage. Adequate quantity of micro-nutrients like Iron, Folic acid, and Vitamin A are also provided in convergence with the National Rural Health Mission (NHRM). Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) Scheme: ICDS Scheme represents one of the world’s largest and most unique programmes for early childhood (below 6 years) development. It aims to reduce the incidence of mortality, morbidity, malnutrition and school dropout; to enhance the capability of the mother to look after the health and nutritional needs of the child through proper nutrition and health education. Integrated Child Protection Scheme (ICPS): ICPS provides preventive, statutory care and rehabilitation services to children who are in need of care and protection and children in conflict with law as defined under the Juvenile Justice (Care and Protection of Children) Act, 2000 and its Amendment Act, 2006 and any other vulnerable child. 36 States/UTs have signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for implementation of this Centrally Sponsored scheme. Rajiv across AGs). health

Gandhi Scheme for empowerment of adolescent girls – Sabla: The scheme is operational in 205 selected districts the country since 2010. It aims at all-round development of adolescent girls of 11-18 years (with a focus on all out-of-school The scheme has two major components Nutrition and Non Nutrition Component. While the former aims at improving the and nutrition status of the adolescent girls, the non-nutrition component addresses their developmental needs.

Indira Gandhi Matritva Sahyog Yojana (IGMSY): It is a Centrally Sponsored Scheme which is in turn, a Conditional Cash Transfer scheme covered under Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) programme for pregnant and lactating women aged 19 years and above for first two live births in 53 districts.. The scheme has been renamed as Matritva Sahyog Yojana (MSY), 2014. As per the provision of the National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013, the Ministry has reviewed the entitlement of maternity benefits of IGMSY beneficiaries in 53 districts from Rs. 4000 to Rs. 6000. Rajiv Gandhi National Creche Scheme for Children of Working Mothers : Objective of the scheme is to provide day care services to children (in the age group of 0-6 years) of working and other deserving women belonging to families whose monthly income is not more than Rs. 12,000/-. The Scheme provides supplementary nutrition, health care inputs like immunization, polio drops, basic health monitoring, pre-school education (03-06), recreation, emergency medicine and contingencies. Rajya Mahila Samman and Zila Mahila Samman to be given to one woman from each State/UT and one women from each District respectively, for advocacy and awareness creation, motivation, community mobilisation, women’s empowerment, skill development training and capacity building and enterprise promotion in conjunction with tangible activities.

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Scheme of Integrated Programme for Older Persons

Under the Scheme, financial assistance is given to implementing agencies for the following major activities provided for the welfare of Senior Citizens: a.

Maintenance of Old Age homes, Respite Care Homes and Continuous Care Homes

Running of Multi Service Centres for Older Persons

Maintenance of Mobile Medicare Units

Running of Day Care Centres for Alzheimerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Disease/Dementia Patients

Physiotherapy clinics for older persons

Disability and hearing aids for older persons

VIII Sansad Aadarsh Gram Yojana (SAGY): This was launched and its guidelines released on 11th October, 2014, for bringing convergence in the implementation of existing Government schemes and programmes without allocating additional funds or starting new infrastructure or construction schemes. IX

Unique Identification Development Authority of India (UIDAI)

The Aadhaar Payment Bridge (APB) is also providing a hassle free mechanism for, amongst other uses, transfer of direct benefits under government schemes including Modified Direct Benefits Transfer for LPG (MDBTL). Aadhaar based verification is being utilized for opening new bank accounts under PMJDY, Biometric Attendance System for Central Government departments, Jeewan Pramaan scheme for central government pensioners, passport application system of Ministry of External Affairs, subscriber management system of Employee Provident Fund Scheme etc. Vanbandhu Kalyan Yojana (VKY): In the current year 2014-15, a new Central Sector Scheme for STs, namely, Vanbandhu X Kalyan Yojana (VKY) has been introduced with a budgetary provision of Rs. 100 Crore. VKY is a strategic process which envisages to ensure that all intended benefits of goods and services under various programmes/schemes of Central as well as State Governments actually reach the target groups by convergence of resources through appropriate institutional mechanism. During the current year, the Scheme is being implemented in one Block each of the ten States having schedule V areas. XI

Hamari Dharohar to preserve rich heritage of minority communities of India under the overall concept of Indian culture.

Aâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;145