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INDIVIDUAL BMC PERFORMANCE IN 2017

Many BMCs were affected by extreme weather events in 2017, particularly Hurricanes Irma and Maria, two category five hurricanes that passed through the Region in September. They impacted 10 BMCs, most significantly Anguilla; Antigua and Barbuda; British Virgin Islands (BVI); Dominica; and Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI). Both hurricanes caused considerable damage to economic and social infrastructure, and loss of life. Authorities estimate the costs of damage and losses at about 225% of GDP in Dominica and more than 300% in BVI. In all of the affected BMCs, the social impacts are yet to be fully assessed; but the consequences of displacement and unemployment, especially for more vulnerable households, are potentially severe for future growth prospects.

Most of the impact in TCI was felt on Grand Turk, where cruise ship visits were disrupted; however, overnight tourism, mainly based on the larger island of Providenciales, was less affected. In St. Kitts and Nevis, construction activity levelled off and overnight tourist numbers fell; but cruise ship visitor numbers bounced back late in the year. In The Bahamas, growth is estimated to have returned to positive territory, following the delayed opening of Baha Mar, the mega resort.

Of the Region’s other economies, Cayman Islands; Grenada; and Saint Lucia are estimated to have grown, due primarily to positive developments in their tourism and construction industries, and in Grenada, the education industry. The rate of growth in Jamaica was the highest since 2006, despite a contraction in agriculture following floods in May. There were strong performances in tourism, construction and manufacturing.

Four of the five major commodity exporters—Belize, Guyana, Haiti, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago—all saw improved performance compared with 2016. Growth remained negative in Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. In Suriname, crude oil production targets were not met, although output from the refinery increased following an upgrade in 2016. Gold production increased but there were also cuts in public expenditure as part of the Government’s adjustment programme, which has been implemented to restore macroeconomic stability. In Trinidad and Tobago, output from the dominant oil and gas sector is estimated to have increased marginally, as previously commenced infrastructure maintenance work was completed, and new activities came on stream.

Following contraction in 2016, there was recovery in Belize. Agriculture and fishing bounced back marginally from drought and disease respectively. Visitor numbers continued to increase, although the tourism sector fell slightly overall, as tourists opted for cheaper accommodation options. Manufacturing contracted, partly due to lower oil production, and to lower production of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages. Growth in Guyana was underpinned by increased construction and manufacturing output. The public sector investment programme was ramped up, although some disbursement issues remained. Gold production fell slightly but its price rose. Rice output increased but sugar output fell, due to repairs at one estate, and industrial action in opposition to sugar industry restructuring. Haiti benefited from improved output of textiles and food. There were also increases in industrial production and in construction, some related to rebuilding following Hurricane Matthew in 2016.

Tourism and construction also performed well in Barbados, although overall growth was more modest. Growth is expected to have been dampened by the impact of austerity measures that were introduced to reduce domestic demand to restore external and fiscal stability. In St. Vincent and the Grenadines, visitor numbers were down despite the opening of the new airport. This was partly because room stock declined following closure of the Buccament Bay Resort.

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