The LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem Market Size, Share, Growth & Analysis Report 2015 - 2020: Radiant Insights, Inc As a natural upgrade path for carriers from the previously detached GSM, CDMA and TD-SCDMA ecosystems, LTE has emerged as the first truly global mobile communications standard. Commonly marketed as the “4G” standard, LTE promises to provide higher data rates and lower latency at a much lower TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) than 3G technologies. The TCO and performance is further enhanced by deployment of small cells and the LTE-Advanced standard. LTE-Advanced is a further enhancement to LTE which improves performance and data rates using features such as the aggregation of carriers, interference management and advanced antenna techniques. Read Complete Report with TOC @ http://www.radiantinsights.com/research/the-lte-lte-advanced5g-ecosystem-2015-2020-infrastructure-devices-operator-services-verticals-strategies-forecasts With over 380 fully commercial network launches, LTE has become a mainstream technology, and a number of wireless carriers have already deployed LTE-Advanced features such as carrier aggregation. SNS Research estimates that LTE service revenues will account for nearly $170 Billion in 2015. Revenues are further expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% over the next 5 years. Driven by these revenue prospects, operators continue to aggressively invest in LTE infrastructure, encompassing macrocell base stations (eNBs), small cells and EPC/mobile core equipment. LTE infrastructure spending is expected to account for nearly $33 Billion by the end of 2020. While LTE and LTE-Advanced deployments are still underway, wireless carriers and vendors have already embarked on R&D initiatives to develop so-called “5G” technology, with a vision of commercialization by 2020. 5G is essentially a revolutionary paradigm shift in wireless networking to support the throughput, latency, and scalability requirements of future use cases such as extreme bandwidth augmented reality applications and connectivity management for billions of M2M (Machine to Machine) devices. The “LTE, LTE-Advanced & 5G Ecosystem: 2015 – 2020 – Infrastructure, Devices, Operator Services, Verticals, Strategies & Forecasts” report presents an in-depth assessment of the LTE, LTE-Advanced and the emerging 5G ecosystem including key market drivers, challenges, enabling technologies, operator revenue potential, deployment strategies, vertical market opportunities, network rollout commitments, R&D initiatives, future roadmap, value chain, vendor assessment and market share. The report also tracks revenue and shipments for both LTE infrastructure and devices, along with subscription and service revenue from 2015 through to 2020. Besides projections for the LTE market as a whole, separate projections for the TD-LTE and LTE FDD submarkets are also presented. The report comes with an associated Excel datasheet suite covering quantitative data from all numeric forecasts presented in the report. Key Findings:
The report has the following key findings: - In 2015 wireless carriers will pocket nearly $170 Billion from commercial LTE service revenues. The figure is further expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 30% over the next five years - By 2020 nearly 60% of all LTE subscriptions will be on LTE-Advanced networks - Apple and Samsung lead LTE smartphone shipments with a combined market share of over 63% - LTE infrastructure spending is expected to account for nearly $33 Billion by the end of 2020. This includes spending on LTE macrocells, small cells and EPC/mobile core solutions - Nokia and Ericsson lead the LTE RAN infrastructure market with a combined market share of 43% - Driven by regional, national government, wireless carrier and vendor initiatives, we expect 5G R&D and trial investments will account for nearly $5 Billion by 2020, following a CAGR of nearly 40% over the next 5 years - Nearly 70% of these investments will target large scale commercial trial networks in Japan, South Korea and other early pioneering countries Topics Covered: Read Complete Report with TOC @ http://www.radiantinsights.com/research/the-lte-lte-advanced5g-ecosystem-2015-2020-infrastructure-devices-operator-services-verticals-strategies-forecasts The report covers the following topics: - LTE and LTE-Advanced technology and market status - 5G technology, initiatives and R&D commitments - Market drivers and barriers - TCO comparison with legacy technologies - Vertical markets for LTE, LTE-Advanced and 5G networks - LTE infrastructure (FDD/TDD macrocell base stations, small cells & EPC) - LTE devices (smartphones and other form factors) - LTE subscriptions and service revenue (FDD and TDD) - LTE infrastructure and device vendor market share - Antenna systems, RAN, EPC/mobile core, backhaul and fronthaul deployment strategies - LTE operator reviews and network deployment case studies
- LTE operator service models and pricing strategies - VoLTE, RCS, LTE Broadcast (eMBMS) and M2M services - Wireless network infrastructure industry roadmap and value chain - Company profiles and strategies of over 70 LTE ecosystem players including device OEMs, infrastructure (RAN, EPC) vendors and wireless carriers - Competitive assessment of vendor strategies & commitments to 5G - Market analysis and forecasts from 2015 till 2020 Read Complete Report with TOC @ http://www.radiantinsights.com/research/the-lte-lte-advanced5g-ecosystem-2015-2020-infrastructure-devices-operator-services-verticals-strategies-forecasts Historical Revenue & Forecast Segmentation: Market forecasts and historical revenue/unit shipment/subscription figures are provided for each of the following submarkets and their subcategories: - LTE Infrastructure Shipments & Revenue TD-LTE Macrocell eNodeBs (eNBs) LTE FDD Macrocell eNBs LTE FDD Small Cells TD-LTE Small Cells EPC
- LTE Device Shipments & Revenue TD-LTE LTE FDD Form Factor (Embedded Cards, Consumer Gadgets, Netbooks, PCs, Routers, Smartphones, Tablets and USB Dongles)
- LTE Subscriptions and Operator Service Revenue TD-LTE
LTE FDD The following vertical, regional and country markets are also covered: - Vertical Markets Automotive & Transportation Agriculture Construction Education Energy & Utilities Read Complete Report with TOC @ http://www.radiantinsights.com/research/the-lte-lte-advanced5g-ecosystem-2015-2020-infrastructure-devices-operator-services-verticals-strategies-forecasts Healthcare Logistics Mining Military Professional Services Public Safety, Security & Emergency Services Retail & Hospitality Smart Cities Sports
- Regional Markets Asia Pacific Eastern Europe Latin & Central America Middle East & Africa North America
Western Europe - Top 20 Country Markets Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain, UK and USA
Key Questions Answered: The report provides answers to the following key questions: - How big is the LTE, LTE-Advanced and 5G ecosystem? - How is the ecosystem evolving by segment and region? - What will the market size be in 2020 and at what rate will it grow? - What trends, challenges and barriers are influencing its growth? Read Complete Report with TOC @ http://www.radiantinsights.com/research/the-lte-lte-advanced5g-ecosystem-2015-2020-infrastructure-devices-operator-services-verticals-strategies-forecasts - Who are the key LTE infrastructure and device vendors and what are their strategies? - How much are vendors and operators investing in LTE? - What is the outlook for LTE-Advanced adoption? - What is the outlook for VoLTE, RCS and LTE Broadcast (eMBMS) services? - How will LTE FDD investments compare with TD-LTE? - What opportunities exist for LTE small cells and how will their proliferation impact the wider LTE RAN market? - Will future network rollouts adopt a C-RAN (Cloud RAN) centric architecture? - How will NFV and virtualization affect the EPC market? - How will LTE ARPU evolve overtime? - Which countries will see the highest number of LTE subscriptions? - How much will vendors and operators invest in 5G R&D? - What will the number of 5G subscriptions in 2025 and at what rate will they grow? - Will 5G networks utilize new spectrum bands?
Table of Contents 1 Chapter 1: Introduction
25
1.1
Executive Summary
25
1.2
Topics Covered 27
1.3
Historical Revenue & Forecast Segmentation
1.4
Key Questions Answered
1.5
Key Findings
31
1.6
Methodology
32
1.7
Target Audience
1.8
Companies & Organizations Mentioned 34
28
30
33
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Chapter 2: LTE and LTE-Advanced Ecosystem
42
2.1
Mobile Broadband Growth
2.2
LTE Technology & Market Momentum 43
2.2.1
What is LTE? 43
2.2.2
Architectural Overview & Components 43
2.2.3
Underlying Technologies & Key Performance Metrics of LTE
2.2.4
Choice of Spectrum Bands
2.2.5
Overtaking WiMAX as the Dominant 4G Standard
2.2.6
Providing an Upgrade Path for Both 3GPP and 3GPP2 Wireless Carriers 48
2.2.7
An Established Market: Over 380 Commercial Deployments
2.2.8
Motivation for LTE-Advanced 49
2.3
What is LTE-Advanced?
2.3.1
Carrier Aggregation
2.3.2
Optimizing Small Cell Performance
42
47
48
50
50 50
48
49
2.3.3
eICIC 50
2.3.4
Higher Order MIMO
2.3.5
CoMP 51
2.3.6
Unlicensed Spectrum
2.4
Key Market Drivers: What Factors Are Driving LTE and LTE-Advanced Investments?
2.4.1
Growing Traffic Capacity Demands
2.4.2
Competitive Operator Landscape: Seizing the $1.5 Trillion Opportunity 53
51
51 52
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LTE Value Proposition: Network Performance and Cost Savings 54
2.4.4
Flexible Spectrum & Spectral Efficiency55
2.4.5
Address 2G/3G Legacy Network Congestion
2.4.6
Seamless Interoperability with Legacy Networks 55
2.4.7
Strategic Choice for CDMA & WiMAX Operators: Join Mainstream Ecosystem 55
2.4.8
Bringing Broadband to the Masses: Enabling Cheap Mobile Broadband Connectivity
2.4.9
Growing Interest from Vertical Markets 56
2.4.10 Vendor Endorsement
55
56
2.4.11 Narrow Competition from Competing Standards 57 2.5
Challenges & Inhibiters to the Ecosystem
58
2.5.1
Time to Market 58
2.5.2
Operator CapEx58
2.5.3
Spectrum Congestion
2.5.4
Impact of RAN Sharing 59
2.5.5
Social, Political, Economic and Environmental Risks
2.5.6
Committing to Initial Investments
2.5.7
Roaming Challenges
59
60
60
59
56
2.5.8
Voice Support: VoLTE Comes to Rescue
2.5.9
Investment Returns: The OTT Threat
60
61
2.5.10 Backhaul Capacity Limitations 61 3
Chapter 3: LTE & LTE-Advanced Deployment Strategies
3.1
Antenna & RAN Strategies
3.1.1
Single RAN vs. Overlay Deployment
62
3.1.2
Adopting an RRH and FTTA Design
63
3.1.3
Adopting a C-RAN Architecture64
3.1.4
Optimal Antenna Selection
3.1.5
Interference Limitation Strategies
62
62
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Managing Co-Existence with Legacy 3G/2G RF Sites
65
3.2
EPC/Mobile Core Strategies
3.2.1
Integration of Functions & Virtualization
3.2.2
Deployment Architecture Choices
3.2.3
Supporting Legacy Networks
3.2.4
Integration with IMS
3.2.5
Embedding DPI for Policy Enforcement & Network Optimization
3.3
LTE Backhaul & Fronthaul Strategies
68
3.3.1
Architectural Impact of X2 Interface
68
3.3.2
LTE-Advanced Requirements
3.3.3
Growing Backhaul Capacity & Latency Requirements
3.3.4
IPsec
3.3.5
Technology Options: Fiber, Microwave & Millimeter Wave
3.3.6
Developing a HetNet Backhaul Strategy 70
66 66
66
67
67
68 69
69 70
67
3.3.7
Synchronization and Timing
70
3.3.8
Backhaul Sharing
3.3.9
Fronthaul Options: Fiber vs. Wireless
4
Chapter 4: Operator Service Models – Monetizing LTE
4.1
LTE as an Enhanced Data Offering
72
4.1.1
Driving Consumer Uptake of LTE
72
4.1.2
Enterprise Specific LTE Plans 73
4.2
VoLTE & RCS: Enabling Integrated Voice, Video & IM Services
4.2.1
Pricing Strategies
71 71
72
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Layered Service Offering for Enterprises
74
4.3
Fixed Broadband Alternative
4.4
M2M Connectivity
4.4.1
Capitalizing on LTE’s Performance Characteristics
4.4.2
Impact of Decommissioning 2G/3G Networks
4.5
Wholesale Services
4.6
LTE Broadcast & eMBMS: Is there a Business Case Yet?
5
Chapter 5: Vertical Markets for LTE & LTE-Advanced Networks
5.1
Vertical Market Opportunities: Capitalizing on LTE and LTE-Advanced 78
5.2
How Big is the Vertical Market Opportunity?
5.3
Automotive & Transportation
5.4
Agriculture
81
5.5
Construction
82
75
75 75
76
76
80
79
77
78
5.6
Education
83
5.7
Energy & Utilities
5.8
Healthcare
85
5.9
Logistics
86
5.10
Mining 87
5.11
Military
5.12
Professional Services
5.13
Public Safety, Security & Emergency Services 90
5.14
Retail & Hospitality
5.15
Smart Cities
5.16
Sports 94
84
88 89
92
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Chapter 6: The Emerging 5G Ecosystem & Technology
6.1
What is 5G?
6.2
5G Requirements
6.2.1
Data Volume
96
6.2.2
Throughput
96
6.2.3
Response Time & Latency
6.2.4
Device Density 96
6.2.5
Availability & Coverage
6.2.6
Battery Life
6.2.7
Energy Saving & Cost Reduction
6.3
5G Market Drivers
6.3.1
Why the Need for a 5G Standard?
6.3.2
Improving Spectrum Utilization 98
95 95
96
96
97 97
98 98
95
6.3.3
Advances in Air Interface Transmission Schemes
98
6.3.4
Gigabit Wireless Connectivity: Supporting Future Services
6.3.5
Moving Towards IoT (Internet of Things): Increasing Device Density
6.3.6
Towards a Flatter Network Architecture 99
6.4
Challenges & Inhibitors to 5G 100
6.4.1
Skepticism
6.4.2
Standardization Challenges: Too Many Stakeholders
6.4.3
Spectrum Regulation & Complexities
99 99
100 100
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Massive MIMO, Beamforming & Antenna Technology Issues
6.4.5
Higher Frequencies Mean New Infrastructure
6.4.6
Complex Performance Requirements
6.4.7
Energy Efficiency & Technology Scaling
6.5
5G Applications & Use Cases
6.5.1
Extreme Bandwidth Applications: Video, Internet Gaming & Augmented Reality 103
6.5.2
MTC/M2M, IoT & Ubiquitous Communications 103
6.5.2.1 Short-burst Traffic 6.5.3
6.5.3.2 Energy & Smart Grids 105 6.5.3.3 Transport & Logistics 105 105
6.5.3.5 Smart Cities
105
6.5.3.6 Public Safety
106
6.5.3.7 Fitness & Sports
102
103
104
104
6.5.3.4 Healthcare
101
102
Vertical Industries & Safety Critical Domains
6.5.3.1 Automotive
106
101
104
6.6
Key Technologies & Concepts 107
6.6.1
Air Interface: Waveform Options
6.6.2
Massive MIMO 108
6.6.3
Phased Array Antennas 109
6.6.4
Beamforming 109
6.6.5
D2D (Device to Device) Communications
6.6.6
Self-Backhauling & Mesh Networking 111
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Cognitive Radio & Spectrum Sensing
6.6.8
LSA (Licensed Shared Access) 112
6.6.9
Spectrum Aggregation 113
111
6.6.10 Integration of VLC (Visible Light Communication) 6.7
Complimentary Technologies
6.7.1
NFV & SDN
6.7.2
HetNet & C-RAN Architecture 115
113
114
114
6.7.2.1 Will C-RAN be the Default 5G Network Architecture? 115 6.7.3
Drones & Satellites
117
6.7.3.1 Satellite Integration in 5G Networks
117
6.7.3.2 Google and Facebook’s Drone Ambitions
117
6.7.3.3 Interest from Wireless Carriers 117
7
Chapter 7: 5G Investments & Future Forecast
7.1
How Much is Being Invested in 5G?
118
7.2
Global 5G Subscriptions: 2020 - 2025
119
7.2.1
Asia Pacific 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025
120
118
7.2.2
Eastern Europe 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025 120
7.2.3
Latin & Central America 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025 121
7.2.4
Middle East & Africa 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025
7.2.5
North America 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025 122
7.2.6
Western Europe 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025 122
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Chapter 8: 5G Spectrum Assessment 123
8.1
Spectrum Options for 5G
8.2
Sub-1 GHz
123
8.3
3-4 GHz
124
8.4
5 GHz 124
8.5
15 GHz 124
8.6
28 GHz 124
8.7
60/70/80 GHz 124
8.8
Higher Bands
9
Chapter 9: 5G Standardization & Research Initiatives
9.1
ITU-R (ITU Radiocommunications Sector)
126
9.2
3GPP (Third Generation Partnership Project)
127
9.3
GSMA (GSM Association)
9.4
NGMN (Next Generation Mobile Networks) Alliance
9.5
TIA (Telecommunications Industry Association) 128
9.6
European Commission Initiatives
9.6.1
METIS 129
9.6.2
5GPPP (5G Public-Private Partnership) 130
123
125
127
129
128
126
9.6.3
5GNOW (5th Generation Non-Orthogonal Waveforms for Asynchronous Signaling)
9.7
National Government Initiatives 131
9.7.1
Korea’s 5G Forum
9.7.2
Japan’s ARIB 20B AH (2020 and Beyond AdHoc)
9.7.3
China’s IMT-2020
9.7.4
China’s 863-5G Project 131
130
131 131
131
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